Will a hotter world lead to more intense storms?
2010 might be on track to be the warmest ever (according to GISS), but right now, we may be about to set a new record of tropical storms — in inactivity. Ryan Maue tracks the global accumulated activity and reports that by the end of July we might break the record low we set last year.
Ryan N. Maue’s 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
July 15: If no additional ACE occurred in July, the 24-month global ACE total would be 1095 compared to last month at 1173. The previous 30-year low was 1091 set recently in September 2009. No lower values exist during the past 30-years.
Global and Northern Hemsiphere Tropical Cyclone Activity is near a record low
Looking at the National Hurricane Centre, it doesn’t seem like there is much activity on the way between now and the end of July.
Advisories issued for the North Atlantic, The East Pacific, The West Pacific, and the Indian Ocean are all the same:
There is no tropical storm activity for this region.
In about two weeks they will adjust the Atlantic hurricane outlook and use the adjusted number as if it was the only one for the entire year.
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Both greater quantity and intensity of storms are predicted. Permanent droughts.
More flooding with the permanent droughts. Hard to imagine but they use models. Joe Romm said CO2 is pollution and it is one form of pollution that is making kids more ignorant even before they are born. I wonder how he discussed their intelligence with them before birth.
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In the following link there is finally incontrovertible proof that the atmosphere is heated from the top down.
“The Diurnal Atmospheric Bulge, giant 1200º bulge of rapidly heated and expanding gases circling the Globe 24/7.”
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The cumulative ACE for the month of June was at its highest in years.
The current 2 week forecast (warning, climate model prediction forthcoming) shows the start of an intense 6 to 8 week period of cyclonic activity for the Atlantic basin.
The analogous years of 1998 and 2004 also got off to a relatively slow start so we shall soon know how the predictions will bear out.
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Just wait for it – some eco-loon will point out that lack of tropical storm activity is also a result of AGW.
I’ll give it a week!
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DougS @ 5
…and furthermore the lack of tropical storms represents a cataclysmic change that we must avoid at all cost (literally) as the ecology of the tropics depends on them.
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They can get their homogenous temperature data and climate models. To do and say anything they want unfortunately (for them) they are not having much luck with the real world.
A while back I attended a field day where the so-called experts earnestly informed us that there would be droughts, floods, and bushfires.
I responded “Thank God for that! The way you lot have been carrying on, I thought things were going to be different”
I also pointed out that you can have a drought, or a flood, or a bushfire, but not all three together.
And if there was going to be more, which one would there be more of. They declined to reply!
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Just a little more empirical evidence that the models and predictions of AGW (much less CAGW) are wrong. How much more is needed to refute the “irrefutable consensus”?
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Re: posts 5 and 6, you both are right except that Mattb will think you were trying to make humor!
Give it two weeks and there will be a peer reviewed paper on exactly how AGW is the reason there is both more and less of anything at the same time.
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Al Gore said Global warming will increase the intensity and frequency of hurricanes. I knew the record opposed this statement, though to assume that it would seems plausible if you take a simplistic view of weather and assume just one factor has a huge impact.
More atmospheric heat does not necessarily mean more frequent nor intense weather activity.
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Binny @ 7
I love your logic – it’s both inescapable and funny. It also demonstrates how the AGW mob will grab at any bit of bad news or forecast to attribute to their pet cause.
If I were to make a prediction it would be that increased CO2 would cause plants to grow better (e.g. trees and crops) and that mother nature won’t be paying attention to the climate models.
Cheers,
Speedy
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What? Reality isn’t cooperating again. But Al was so sure…
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Oh noooooooooo!!!
The lack of storms is a disaster of biblical, nay verily, Hollywood proportions.
Must be caused by all that evil CO2 from all those naughty naughty peoples causing global warming and stopping the storming!
We must put a stop to this and get the stormses backs!! Give up your car! repent, repend, the end is nigh!
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“Both greater quantity and intensity of storms are predicted.”
I’m not sure that is the case. more intense, yes, but more frequent, I’m pretty sure the jury is still out.
In fact even Wikipedia says this – and since wikipedia is under the control of the warmist cult and lefties then it if anywhere would exaggerate.
“In more recent work published by Emanuel (in the March 2008 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society), he states that new climate modeling data indicates “global warming should reduce the global frequency of hurricanes.”[142] The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.[143]”
“Similarly, P.J. Webster and others published an article in Science examining the “changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity” over the past 35 years, the period when satellite data has been available. Their main finding was although the number of cyclones decreased throughout the planet excluding the north Atlantic Ocean, there was a great increase in the number and proportion of very strong cyclones.[144]”
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Sort of feeling spooked at the LACK of weather activity in the oceans.
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Yeah, less hurricanes & cyclones. But isn’t it weird how there is so much flooding going on all over the place?
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Can I request a flood for Canberra please?
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John Brookes: #16
July 28th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
Hi John. Yes it is weird. Maybe you can contact the IPCC or RC or ask someone at Skeptical, afterall, they’re supposed to know (after decades of research) whats happening with our climate.
Maybe the hurricanes and cyclones are at the same place as that of Trenberths missing heat?
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I recall that in late 2005 into 2007 or so,Alarmists were beside themselves with joy over the big 2005 hurricane season.They along with a few published science papers tried hard to convince us that CO2 was causing it.
Today they rather not talk about it.Does that mean that the awesome powers of CO2 induced storminess took a vacation,after that busy year being all worn out making those nasty whirlwinds,one right after the other?
He he he…..
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John Brooks at post # 16,
Have you considered that the way we build on the land can promote flooding?
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John,
this is what I am referring to about human induced flooding:
Has Global Warming Caused More Mississippi River Floods As Predicted By Climate Models? Scientists Say, ‘Nope’
Not all floods are “natural”.
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O/T but funny…even tho i didn’t watch the debate:
28 July: Australian: Imre Saluzinszky: Links with minister Tony Burke revealed
THE ABC has admitted it should have disclosed links between members of a judging panel and Sustainable Population Minister Tony Burke.
The broadcaster used the panel to assess the televised leaders’ election debate
A seven-person panel of debating experts scored the debate between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott 7-0 for the Prime Minister.
Two members of the panel that rated the debate for the ABC’s commentary website The Drum, Ray D’Cruz and Ben Richards, founded a public speaking consultancy, Aticus Pty Ltd, with Mr Burke in 1997…
A reader of The Drum pointed out the connections between Mr D’Cruz, Mr Richards and Mr Burke on Monday, but no response appeared on the website until the ABC was approached by The Australian.
The editor of the website, Jonathan Green, conceded the matter “should have been disclosed previously”.
Some of the arguments used by Mr Richards — including that the Opposition Leader was backward-looking and attempting to ride a “wave of nostalgia” during the debate — echoed points made by Mr Burke on Sunday evening…
Liberal campaign spokesman Andrew Robb said the undisclosed links demonstrated Labor’s “infiltration” of the media.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/links-with-minister-tony-burke-revealed/story-fn59niix-1225897728806
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Albert:
July 28th, 2010 at 9:44 am
“Alpocalypse” Gore has made so many ridiculous claims that, if it were fiction, would seem so implausible as to render suspension of disbelief unattainable. The guy once claimed that the center of the earth was millions of degrees and that we had the technology to drill into this thermalgeddon just a “couple of kilometers below the surface” and harvest unlimited geothermal power! See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BooOfsZgac.
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Apparently Emanuel looked at the same graph eh?
I don’t suppose opportunist is a word in your vocabulary……
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Hmmmm. I seem to recall one Dr. William Gray (apologies if I got his name wrong), about 10-15 years ago, claiming that the natural global warming we have experiened would actually cause Less hurricanes. He was CORRECT of course. And as I remember, the warmists ridiculed the person who had 40 years of experience under his belt at that point…. or, in the case of some of those warmists posting here and there, gurgling at him (I imagine some of them were rather young at that point in time).
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I see this site is still the place for those suffering from Roger Pielke junior’s syndrome AKA reality denial. Sad bastards.
[no I think we are much happier than the average AGW supporter] ED.
[PS don’t use the “D” word]
[cute e-mail too]
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Looks like warming in South America is on holiday as well:
Longest Cold streak in 17 years , records set for low temperatures (in Spanish)
http://diario.latercera.com/2010/07/21/01/contenido/9_33069_9.shtml
Peru Government Declares Cold Wave Emergency
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=361111&CategoryId=14095
Cold Wave Kills More Than 2,000 Cattle in Paraguay
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=360867&CategoryId=12394
Snowstorm Leaves Hundreds Cut Off in Southern Argentina
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=361274&CategoryId=14093
My Spanish isn`t too good but even I can work out that the person who said “la mafia del fraude climatico” in the first comment on the article isn`t a warm and happy camper .
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@26 Computers and preschoolers are a bad mix.
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Labor Party fails to deliver lower living costs……..
Whilst the rolling Greek tragedy that is the Labor Party continues, the price of utilities continues to take away the spare cash of many Australian families. The Labor Party went to the election saying that they would ease the squeeze and assist with the cost of living but this is another promise which they have never delivered. In fact they were increasing the debt and increasing pressure on interest rates while they made life harder not easier for people. Australians are quickly coming to the conclusion that life under Labor is an erratic roller coaster which the wheels will fly off at any moment.
After promising to reduce the cost of living, since Labor was elected:
Electricity prices have gone up 34%
Water prices have gone up 29%
Gas prices have gone up 26%
Overall, utility bills have gone up 31%
To compare Labor against the Coalition on an annual basis (and correcting for inflation):
Electricity prices are going up 9.3% a year under Labor. They went up 0.5% a year under the Coalition.
Water prices are going up 7.6% a year under Labor. They went up 1.2% a year under the Coalition.
Gas prices are going up 6.5% a year under Labor. They went up 1.3% a year under the Coalition.
Overall, utility prices are going up 8.2% a year under Labor. They went up 0.8% a year under the Coalition.
Australia can’t afford another three years of Labor.
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“Nemesis”,
Isn’t it time your Mummy tucked you into bed and read you a story…….
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Nemesis at post #26:
I see that an actual counterpoint was too hard for you to write up.
Does that mean your insulting post is actually an admissal that you can not find anything wrong with the posted article?
Cheers.
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Gabe surely this site is not just a poster board for rabid liberal fanbois? How were today’s inflation figures?
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I think of the earth as a big engine, busily transferring heat from the equator to the poles. With a global warming greenhouse, the poles would warm relatively more quickly than the equator. As a result, the difference in temperatures between poles and equator would be smaller, and we’d get fewer storms. With a larger temperature difference, and global cooling, we’d get more storms.
We have been in a positive PDO cycle over the last 30 years, and hurricanes should have been fewer than normal. We may well be in the process of switching to a negative 30 year phase. As a result, temperatures will be cooler, but because of that higher equator-pole temperature gradient, we’ll get more hurricanes. The net effect will be a cooling world, but the CAGWers will point to the increase in hurricanes to prop up their belief system.
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Last year, NOAA was predicting a record Atlantic hurricane season and it was among the weakest on record. This year, NOAA again predicted a big Atlantic storm season, which as I expected, has yet to manifest itself. My suspicion is that their models do indeed predict increased tropical storm activity, but then again, these are the same models used to predict massively amplified effects of incremental atmospheric CO2. Warmer temperatures are unambiguously associated with more storms and more precipitation owing to increased evaporation. Satellite records, ice core records and other paleo data clearly show the correlation. The cause of the NOAA predictive failures is the models they use assume warmer temperatures than reality would dictate.
How many years in a row of a failure to predict the obvious will it take before warmists can wrap their collective heads around the truth?
The truth is plain and simple. The beneficial warming predicted by increased CO2 emissions is an illusion of faulty models. It’s really too bad, since in the next few thousand years, the climate will start a slow cooling as we enter the next ice age and it would be real nice if CO2 was able to forestall this, but alas, it can’t.
George
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The death of the cap & trade bill for this session of Congress has the socialists and the zero growth nuts apoplectic. They know that this was the year it would happen if it was going to ever. They failed to take into consideration the survival instincts of the gutless moderate democrats in the Senate. Reid never got more than 48 solid votes for its version of Waxman Markey out of his 60 Democrats yet he blamed the united opposition of the republicans for the bills demise. Fortunately for the capitalist democracies, Obama used up his capital quickly and has now achieved the dubious distinction of being the least popular president ever so early in his term. It is ironic that the AGW agenda was pushed by phoney science and destroyed by the same type of deceit and hypocrisy that allowed it to advance in the first place. I can’t wait for November!
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We are approaching the anniversary of Katrina. I would note (if memory serves me right this morning) by this point in time that year, there had already been five hurricanes.
The following year saw 66% LESS hurricanes than 2005, then the numbers begin to slowly rise again.
How many storms so far this year, in both major oceans? Less than 5 I believe.
No wonder brooksie is the only True Believer posting to this thread. And then only once. (MattB I am not entirely sure about. He has too good of a sense of humor to be fully down-on-bent-knee in the pews of the AGW church).
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Otter,
There have been only 2 named storms in the Atlantic, only 1 of which became a hurricane. There have been 4 named Pacific storms, 2 of which reached hurricane status.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
George
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Wonder how many storms there were in 1850?
What type of magic CO2 made that year hotter?
“2010 is so far the warmest year to date since 1850”
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Maybe they mean “warmest year since records began”. Bet it is not.
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This is a belated, but I used to be and still am interested in tropical cyclones along the QLD coast since I have lived in Brisbane all my life. And I guess I will be ‘letting on’ about my age. In the 50s there seemed to be lots of cyclones. Bowen was destroyed completely. One passed close by Brisbane and over the coast near the Tweed. The Gold Coast housing was severely damaged and a relative has colour footage of this. Casino had to be evacuated by plane. People blamed A-bomb tests for the wild ‘unusual’ weather patterns. New Year 1961 saw an overnight cyclone form and destroy camping grounds along the Sunshine coast and Gold Coast. A cyclone killed several people in the Whitsundays just when the first use of the radio siren was introduced. Many cyclones brushed against the coast near Brisbane. The early 70s had swarms of cyclones especially the one that destroyed Townsville late 1971. 1972 saw a small one reverse course from 30’S and head for Redcliffe destroying the peninsula. Then we had the 1974 flood caused by a decaying cyclone. Strangely, after all that there has been an eerie lack of cyclones near the coast. There have been some big ones that have gone directly south or S.E. away from the coast. Cyclone Larry was a rogue overnight cyclone forming very close to the coast and happened to hit Innisfail in a few hours. bad, of course, but not the typical case of forming way out to sea and taking a few days tracking in, etc. Thus, the constant harping that MORE cyclones would result from AGW has been wrong. But you can bet London to a brick if a big cyclone hits Townsville again or the Brisbane area that the AGWs will say ‘We warned you.’ They said this after Larry.
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This may be belated but it still seems to be a topic for propaganda.
re: Canberra times 12/8/10 ” Disasters proof of global warming’ by Louise Gray.
I assume she has not seen the graphics above, nor determined how CO2 emissions and carbon abatement can be causitivitly related to them.
The planet has been around for ~4billion years? Industrialised man ~200 yrs? I am pretty sure the earth will be here long after we have gone! It will probably have had quite a few more heat waves, floods, volcanic eruptions, polarity reversals, solar flares, and ice ages. maybe even an asteroid hit or two sending it and all inhabitants into darkness for a few hundreed or thousand years.
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For 2011, both greater quantity and more intense storms are predicted. Permanent droughts.
More flooding with the permanent droughts. Hard to imagine but they use models. Last year saw less hurricanes than the year before but the number is rising again.
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