If you are in Sydney, I recommend dropping in to meet David Archibald and hear him speak!
6.30pm, Club Five Dock, 66 Great North Road, Five Dock
Details below… Jim Simpson runs a model group of skeptics 🙂————————————————————————-
Free Lecture – Peak Oil, Climate & Food Security
At short notice, the Climate Realists of Five Dock are pleased to announce a free lecture by
renown Australian geologist, Dr David Archibald, author of the book Solar Cycle 24 and
numerous Papers related to the state of our climate & future of both oil & food production
globally.
This is a unique opportunity for members of the public, especially those in Sydney’s Inner West
to hear first hand from David who has agreed to make his time available to present his latest
Paper (due to be presented later next month in Perth, WA) on these important & highly relevant
topics of; Peak Oil, Climate & world Food Security.
If you are interested in any of these subjects, this is too good an opportunity not to miss!
Cost: Free.
Date/Time: 6:30pm Tuesday evening, 18th October 2011.
Venue: Fairlight Room, Club Five Dock, 66 Great North Road, Five Dock.
Seating: Limited to 40. Advance bookings not essential but encouraged (Ph 0417 285 884).
Transport: Buses 437, 438, 490, 409.
Parking: Two free Council car parks – Kings Road & Waterview Street plus on street.
Dining: Excellent & reasonably priced ‘Three Peppers’ dining room at Club Five Dock
available until 9pm for those who might care to join us for a meal after David Archibald’s lecture.
The will be an opportunity for question & answer time at the end of Dr Archibald’s lecture.
Jim Simpson
Climate Realists of Five Dock
“De Omnibus Dubitandum” – Question Everything
h/t Pat Kelly
Love the sound of those words ‘model group of sceptics’
a new breed of climate models
Seriously wish I lived closer to Sydney; David Archibald would be well worth seeing and listening to
My favourite photo of Anthony Watts’ tour was David Archibald with two protestors; if someone knows if it’s available on the net could you please link
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found that photo on Jo’s site
here it is
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/06/meet-the-believers-smile/
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[snip… try and substantiate at least one point eh? — JN]
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I have heard him speak and I have read his writings and he makes a convincing argument based on the available and historic evidence. He makes more sense than Karoly, Chubb and Flannery yet is ignored by all. I find his reliance on history as a guide to the future far more creditable than reliance on models where imputs, are at best, guesses. The time is coming when the David Archibalds of this world will be vindicated`and the Karolys sent to the dustbins. I can’t wait.
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Jo,
Is Mr Archibald going to speak/lecture while in Perth presenting his paper at the end of November?
Wendy and I will be in Perth on holiday during the month of November and would be keen to attend.
Kneel.
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O/T but…note especially this sentence “A deteriorating global economic outlook has put pressure on emissions permits which depend on robust industrial production to belch out greenhouse gases.” unbelievable!
14 Oct: Reuters: U.N. carbon credits hit new all-time low
The benchmark contract for U.N. carbon credits hit a new record low of 7.13 euros ($9.77) a tonne on Friday, as the euro zone’s worsening debt crisis and prospects of slowing economic growth hit the heavily-supplied offset market.
A deteriorating global economic outlook has put pressure on emissions permits which depend on robust industrial production to belch out greenhouse gases.
U.N. carbon offsets, the world’s worst performing commodity, have been particularly hit because a U.N. climate panel continues to issue new offsets, regardless of a glut in emissions permits in the main demand market, the EU’s emissions trading scheme…
“There is a crisis of confidence,” one trader said.
“From a logical point of view, CERs are close to marginal cost and selling would not make sense unless you are monetizing some of your portfolio.”
“However the current economic woes facing Europe continue to grow and macro fundamentals are taking over,” he added…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/14/us-carbon-price-idUSTRE79D15T20111014
how come our current Govt and, from what i read, the Coalition if they get into Govt, are forcing us to have an ETS, when supposedly “left” and “right” hated it? whose interests are being served?
6 Oct: Futures&OptionsWorld: Market focus: EU carbon market set for growth
The EU ETS has had a tumultuous existence since its launch. The scheme faced ideological problems having been derided by the left for being ineffective against climate change and the right for hampering economic growth…
The EU has set out to correct these flaws in the move into Phase III in 2013. Phase III will see the establishment of an overall EU cap (a move away from the current National Allocation Plan model), tighter limits on the use of offsets, unlimited banking of allowances between phases II and III, and a move from allowances to auctioning.
Phase II allowances will be carried over to Phase III and with the cap placed on emissions during Phase II predicted to be higher than total emissions, partly as a result of the recession, many market participants are expected to bank these allowances and take them into the next phase, something that they were not able to do over previous transitions.
In addition, the scheme is being expanded with the Inclusion of the aviation sector in the scheme from 2012, which is expected to lead to an increase in demand of around 10-12m tonnes of CO2 allowances per year…
The EU ETS looks set to become a hotbed for arbitrage opportunities. The UK, Poland and Germany have opted out of participation in the EU common auction platform meaning that there will be four primary markets for allowance auctions with the resulting opportunities for arbitrage of the fungible contracts.
Regulatory uncertainties abound going in to the third phase of the scheme. Not least is what form CERs will take in the third phase. To overcome this exchanges are innovating. For example, GreenX has launched a CERPlus, a contract that will automatically convert to whatever unit is mandated by the regulators…
The various challenges have led to a reduction in ambitions for the market…
Now, however, due in part to the problems experienced early on and changing political winds, expectations are lower.
Tom Lewis, chief executive of GreenX, the CME backed European emissions exchange, said: “Global ambitions have been scaled back. The shift in the political winds in the US that was driven by the stalled economy has stalled the expansion of the scheme. There is a misconception that there is a net loss for capping carbon but in fact it would improve the US’s ability to compete.”
One result of the scaling back of ambition has been the shift away from the creation of a common global market, a “carbon currency” that would have seen companies across the world trade fungible emission contracts. This now looks unrealistic…
Global setbacks
It has been a bad year politically for carbon trading: the US did not pass federal cap-and-trade legislation, Australia froze its plans for a domestic scheme and a Japanese act on global warming did not pass through the upper house. These are all setbacks for the EU’s ultimate aim of linking its ETS with other compatible trading systems across the world.
In addition, existing schemes in the US are losing pace. There are currently two schemes in the US: the Western Climate Initiative, a group of West Coast US states and Canadian provinces committed to reducing emissions to 15% below 2005 levels by 2020 and the Regional Greenhouse Gas initiative, a scheme involving a number of US states.
Both schemes have fared poorly during the downturn. Most recently, the withdrawal of Arizona from the WCI and speculation that Utah will also drop out has thrown the scale of the scheme into doubt ahead of the proposed launch in January 2012.
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, is also flagging. Like the EU scheme, it has been plagued by overcapacity despite an initial auction of the credits. Credits now trade at the legal minimum of $1.89, 70% of credits went unsold at the last auction and New Jersey looks set to drop out of the scheme.
The World Bank describes the current state of the market as “fragmented but workable” and one that “could further evolve through linking and acceptance of similar levels of ambition [to the EU ETS]”…
http://www.fow.com/Article/2914028/Features/26522/Market-focus-EU-carbon-market-set-for-growth.html
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It would be great if someone could record and upload this (and similar events) to youtube I am in rural Queensland and never get a chance to hear people like this.
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Dear Prime Minister,
Firstly, my sincere congratulations on the passing of the Carbon Reduction Scheme. I am sure that my grandchildren and their childrens gratitude will echo with much more resonance than mine. The future,as always, has much to thank the past for. This is no exception. Again, thank you.
As I watch the daily political debate I can’t help but at times to feeling a disquieting coldness overtake me. It’s as if the heart of the old time knockabout, she’ll be right Aussie has been clenched in a corrupted fist of hate, bile and venom. The personal attacks on yourself have been particularly disturbing. No Australian worker, and you are one, should ever be subjected to that. It really is unAustralian. How and where you get the strength to fight it day after day I have no idea. I, like millions of others are just thankful that you find the courage to do so.
In those times when you find yourself doubting the validity of your beliefs, your vision of the countrys’ future, the steadfastness of your colleagues beliefs please remember that for every Australian that doubts you one Australian believes in you. That the polls say different is superflous. The last ballot boxes spoke truthfully. I truly believe that in the cheap cardboard voting booth Australians, aware of the importance of their individual action, vote in the best interests of this country. It was so in 2007, it was so in 2010 and will be so in 2013.
Pay no attention to those who, by not understanding the true nature of courage, seek only to destroy it. To those to whom the meaning of Honour is not the selfless actions of the brave, the courage of independent thought guided by an empathatic awareness of the foibles of humanity. They believe Honour to be a useful addition to the school motto. Give them no heed.
Millions of Australians believe in you and your journey. Draw on our strength.
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Dear Prime Minister,
It is not your stubbornness, that some mistake for courage (some would even have the gall to suggest that the only reason you supported this “Carbon Reduction Scheme” was so that you could become PM), but rather your chronic inability to tell the truth about anything.
Then of course there are those nitpickers who don’t want to return to ancient ineffective and inefficient technologies like wind power and sun energy but are beholden to coal generated electricity because they claim that it alone as a power source is responsible for the high standard of living we now enjoy and wish future generations of our offspring to continue enjoying.
Then there are those who claim extra CO2 is about the best thing for making vegetation of all sorts grow which they claim will ensure we will be able to feed the extra two billion of us we are expecting to add to Earth’s population in the next fifty or so years.
All these doubters seem to be saying they wish that your “courage” was supplemented with a better understanding of how our climate actually operates.
Dear PM it doesn’t require courage to go along with the establishment consensus scientists who keep blowing down your ear. If you want an example of real anti-consensus courage “it’s all crap” Tony Abbott is a good place to start.
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Dear Ian,
The science is settled. The IQ of a person is determined by the IQ of his/her parent. Therefore judging by the contents of your letter your parent’s IQ puts you at a disadvantage. I do feel sorry for your grandchildren and their children since they are likely to suffer from the same problem.
It is a pity that you can’t possibly comprehend that it is the present system that this government is trying to destroy that allowed you to live in reasonable prosperity and that working people like myself contributed to your well being. However I do understand why you would want to turn back the clock. After all the position of the village idiot would provide you with some job satisfaction that you seem to be lacking.
I wish you luck on your journey. Bear in mind that I will not longer be contributing towards your well being therefore the road ahead may be a bit bumpy. But I’m sure that you’ll face the future with that characteristic happy go lucky grin regardless of what lies ahead. My advice to you is to follow your fearless leader and go wherever she’s going.
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To succeed, Julia Gillard requires the likes of yourself Ian. Fortunately the majority see it differently. What’s un-Australian is to force this leglislation down our throats because she can, that is because of a fluke in the outcome of the 2010 election. The continued use of children as a moral lever is sickening. The votes of a few politicians now are not going to make a jot of difference to the climate in 2050.
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What, but not in 2004? Or do only “correct” outcomes count?
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Opportunities for the arbitrage of the fungible contracts, makes all you and this government say b%llshit and a total scam.
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fantastic “stories” from ABC, Fairfax and Murdoch…can’t even be bothered with the urls:
ABC: Power price warning if Coalition cans carbon tax
The Federal Government says the uncertainty the Liberals are now creating over carbon reduction in Australia is locking in higher power prices…
ABC: Carbon tax repeal could cost millions
A constitutional law expert has warned the Federal Opposition’s promise to repeal the carbon price could cost taxpayers millions of dollars…
SMH: Carbon permits ‘will keep prices down’
Tony Abbott’s warning to big business not to purchase pollution permits before emissions trading starts in mid-2015 could push up consumer prices, the Opposition Leader has been told…
SMH: Abbott featherbedding pollution: Brown
There could be power shortages and a failure in energy investment if Opposition Leader Tony Abbott continues “featherbedding pollution”, the Greens say…
Tony Abbott’s warning ‘will hike prices’
TONY Abbott’s warning to business not to buy future carbon emissions permits will force up electricity prices and consumers will pay more, Climate Change Department secretary Blair Comley has told a Senate hearing…
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18 Oct: Bloomberg: Solyndra Judge Denies Request for Trustee to Run Bankruptcy
Solyndra LLC, the bankrupt solar- panel maker under investigation related to a $535 million loan guarantee from the U.S. government, persuaded a judge not to appoint a trustee to take over its bankruptcy case.
U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Mary Walrath in Wilmington, Delaware, denied the request of the U.S. trustee, an arm of the U.S. Justice Department that monitors corporate bankruptcies, saying at a hearing yesterday that “this case does not rise to the level of failure to disclose that would mandate the appointment of a trustee.” …
Solyndra Chief Executive Officer Brian Harrison left the company earlier this month after refusing to answer questions from a congressional committee about the solar-panel maker’s collapse two years after receiving government-backed funding…
A Solyndra executive, Benjamin Schwartz, refused to answer a question about $1.2 billion in contracts referenced in a 2008 company statement while being interviewed by the trustee’s bankruptcy analyst, Jeffrey Heck, according to the U.S. Trustee.
“The overarching requirement is for transparency, and they can’t erase that or trump that,” Lisa D. Tingue, a lawyer for the U.S. trustee, told Walrath. Tingue said the U.S. trustee lacks confidence in the company’s board of directors and is also concerned that Stover remains as the company’s CFO.
Walrath sided with Solyndra’s lawyers, asserting there was no evidence of fraud or mismanagement…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-17/solyndra-judge-denies-u-s-request-to-put-trustee-in-charge-of-bankruptcy.html
17 Oct: Washington Times: Judge denies bid by government for Solyndra trustee
FBI sought contract information
Bankruptcy analyst Jeffrey Heck of the U.S. Office of the Trustee, an arm of the Justice Department that oversees bankruptcy cases, said that during a routine interview not long after Solyndra filed for bankruptcy, Solyndra officials suggested he “move on” when he asked about its contracts, according to an affidavit filed Friday by Mr. Heck in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware…
He (Heck) also testified that he never had a debtor decline to answer a question because there was an investigation or pending litigation…
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/17/judge-denies-bid-by-government-for-solyndra-truste/
why oh why has Australia passed a carbon dioxide tax/ETS in this economic climate:
16 Oct: UK Telegraph: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Europe’s lost decade as $7 trillion loan crunch looms
Europe’s banks face a $7 trillion lending contraction to bring their balance sheets in line with the US and Japan, threatening to trap the region in a credit crunch and chronic depression for a decade
Even today, the jobless rate for youth is near 10pc in Japan. It is already 46pc in Spain, 43pc in Greece, 32pc in Ireland, and 27pc in Italy. We will discover over time what yet more debt deleveraging will do to these societies…
The sheer scale of Europe’s bank excesses — roughly equal to Alan Greenspan’s household bubble in America — shows what EU leaders are up against as they thrash out their latest “Grand Plan” to save Euroland…
Indeed, it you look at each component of the Grand Plan, every one creates a secondary chain of consequences that may ultimately prove self-defeating. It is why I fear there may be no plausible solution to Europe’s crisis. The structural damage has already gone too far…
There is much talk of EMU fiscal union, most recently the “Soros Plan”. …
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8830072/Europes-lost-decade-as-7-trillion-loan-crunch-looms.html
Swannie to the rescue…LOL:
15 Oct: Australian: AAP: Jobs the key to fix European crisis: Wayne Swan
The treasurer indicated that Australia was in a position to support the IMF so that financial institutions in the worst affected European countries could be kept from falling.
However, he did not specify Australia’s individual contribution…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/jobs-the-key-to-fix-european-crisis-wayne-swan/story-e6frg6n6-1226167568429
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Entirely off-topic (though that doesn’t seem to deter anyone here) – this blog IMHO has become much more interactive and therefore more interesting since Jo introduced comment threading recently. Threading and colour highlighting, and a decent comment editor instead of just a box with a cursor (shades of MSDOS) “grease the wheels” here.
I visit WUWT to read the posts, but rarely scroll down to read more than the first few comments. Wading through a long featureless string of comments is unproductive and time-consuming, and formatting a response using the WordPress editor is tedious. On Judith Curry’s blog un-threaded would be totally unworkable.
I tip my hat to Jo for the improvements.
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the MSM worldwide have one version or another of this apocalyptic vision of the future expressed at a meeting hosted by the British Medical Journal in London, which British Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Chris Huhne attended:
17 Oct: Reuters: Scarce resources, climate biggest threats to world health
The Earth’s natural resources like food, water and forests are being depleted at an alarming speed, causing hunger, conflict, social unrest and species extinction, experts at a climate and health conference in London warned Monday.
Increased hunger due to food yield changes will lead to malnutrition; water scarcity will deteriorate hygiene; pollution will weaken immune systems; and displacement and social disorder due to conflicts over water and land will increase the spread of infectious diseases, they said…
By 2050, there could be 70 million additional deaths in sub-Saharan Africa alone, said Tony McMichael, professor of population health at the Australian National University.
As mosquito species spread due to climate change, the transmission rate of diseases like malaria will increase, engulfing countries like Zimbabwe from 2025 to 2050.
An extra 21 million people in China could be at risk from the infectious disease schistosomiasis as global warming increases floods, enabling disease-carrying water snails to travel to new areas…
“The problem of over-consumption in high income countries has produced an ecological and financial debt,” Ian Roberts, professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told Reuters.
“The biggest risk to human health is from the rise in fossil fuel use, causing cardiovascular disease, stroke and cancer,” he added.
Europe will also be at risk from heat waves, floods and more infectious diseases as pests shift to northern latitudes, said Sari Kovats, lead author of the Europe chapter for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report…
“Many species are already facing a raft of pressures and climate change is creating a new range of additional problems,” said Paul Pearce-Kelly, senior curator at London’s Zoological Society.
Around 15 to 37 percent of over 6,000 species of amphibia are predicted to become extinct by 2100, he said.
In the Earth’s history, there have been five mass extinctions, but there is now a 10,000-fold faster extinction rate than at any time on record.
“We are losing three species an hour, and this is before climate change is doing anything,” said Hugh Montgomery, director at University College London’s institute for human health and performance.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/17/us-climate-health-idUSTRE79G4VP20111017
this one will make Jo and David Archibald’s blood boil!
17 Oct: Physorg: Anuradha K. Herath: The public debate on climate change
For scientists, there is very little debate about the main cause of our current climate change. Ninety-seven percent of scientists who study the issue say it is the result of fossil-fuel burning and other man-made alterations to the environment…
Gavin Schmidt, climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, says the public debate about climate change gives a mistaken impression of what scientists are actually debating. Scientists are questioning the degree of the change, and at what rate climate changes will occur in the future. But they aren’t debating the primary causes of it.
“There aren’t ‘two sides’ to the science,” Schmidt said. “[The pubic debate] implies that the whole thing is just a matter of an opinion – it is not.”…
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-debate-climate.html
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(except that which agrees with your position)
Archibald certainly does his science in an interesting fashion. I particularly like how he demonstrates relationships between solar cycles and temperatures by looking at 5 stations in south-eastern USA. The global picture is only useful when it supports your argument I guess.
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I was fortunate to attend David Archibald’s confronting and compelling presentation last night at Five Dock (thank you, Climate Realists). Far from being a ‘doom and gloom’ presentation, David gave us a window of opportunity to see into the future and plan accordingly.
The data and information David presented is currently being peer reviewed, published and should not be ignored. The correlation between solar activity and the temperature of the planet is irrefutable and flies in the face of Government policy.
The planet is facing a period of global cooling in the northern hemisphere and droughts in Africa and South America. The world is facing increased global population, a decrease in oil production, famine and potential conflict.
Those with their heads buried firmly in the AGW sand will choose to ignore David’s findings. Those who believe that science is never settled will listen and take steps to plan for our children’s and grandchildren’s future. I only hope that there are enough enlightened politicians to listen and plan for a very different future to that espoused by the present Government and the Greens.
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Anne thanks for that report;
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An excellent talk it was. David really knows his stuff. Hopefully next time we can get more notice for a bigger crowd. Many thanks to Jim Simpson for organizing the event at such short notice. After the talk we continued till 11pm talking over a good meal at the club. If it were not for the late hour and work commitments, we would have continued all night.
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A critique of previous Archibald science here. http://n3xus6.blogspot.com/2007/02/dd.html How on Earth can Jo Nova promote this nonsense ?
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Unfortunately, most of the critical examination on this site is very one-directional. That dangerous global warming is nonexistent is not merely the opinion of most posters (and the bloggess), but held to be axiomatic. To claim otherwise is evidence of either stupidity or dishonesty. It doesn’t even matter if your anti-AGW theories are mutually exclusive, they just have to be anti-AGW.
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It is interesting that your linked article critic goes to great lengths to point out one spelling mistake and one typo mistake in Mr Archibalds reviewed article, then your expert critic makes spelling mistakes and typo’s himself. He tries to compare raw data to corrected data. Smoothed data etc is corrected data.
The article and critism was from 2007 BTW. A lot has been learned and published in the last 4 years.
Kneel.
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Andrew, note the way in which none of the shortcomings are acknowledged. Interesting, no?
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It’s pretty obvious that “Green Scientist” is a propagandist for the demonstrably flawed AR4 IPCC report and hence as an activist is not worth taking seriously.
“Anyway, onwards and upwards……..some real science is on its way; IPCC AR4 part I. posted by Green Scientist”
Look at the following paragraph and tell us what this shrill nutter is trying to say?
“The worst climate science paper ever of all time anywhere
I’ve an important announcement to make. I have just spent the past few days looking of what may well be the worst climate paper yet produced. You heard that right – the absolute worst. This paper is so poor it makes Khilyuk and Chilingar (2006) look like Einstein’s special theory of relativity in comparison.”
“…looking of what may…” Is English this Green activists first language?
Green Scientists diatribe is not the work of a scientist but a semi literate propagandist.
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But can Llew address the substantive criticisms?
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In contrast (to Andrew Marven’s dated critique), a more recent endorsement of David Archibald’s science here at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/13/solar-driven-temperature-decline-predicted-for-norway-by-a-norwegian/ by Norwegian scientists from the University of Oslo, Norway, Jan-Erik Solheim, Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics & Ole Humlum Dept of Geosciences.
All is not what it seems after all Andrew and good reason why Jo Nova promotes science based upon empirical evidence, not flawed models.
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Tristan – the Nexus6 critique is damning. The paper cherry picked rubbish. Extraordinary that there is no comment.
If you watch Archibald present in public – simply anecdotal amateurism – no statistics, no hindcast validation, no peer reviewed papers in serious literature. Real maverick stuff. And “alarmist” to boot – “oh dear we’re all gonna freeze”. We’ll add these solar dabblings to his chilli powder cancer therapy interests.
I am stunned that Jo Nova promotes this style of science. But hey anything for “the cause”.
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It requires considerable cognitive dissonance for anyone with a degree of statistical understanding to defend Archibald’s analyses.
However, people are willing to put up with a bit of cognitive dissonance to protect certain beliefs they hold.
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