UPDATE: Rudd wins 57:45.
Who will lead the nation? A diabolical choice. Gillard has lost all goodwill and credibility. If she’ll lie once… there is nothing she can say that will be believed. Polls are at record lows for the Labor Party here, but the dilemma is that the most popular Labor contender (at least in the polls) is also the former PM Kevin Rudd, despised by many in his own party, and whose polls were so low three years ago they turfed him out. He still carries the baggage of all the worst policy calls — the boats, the “Climate” action, the NBN, the debt. The Unions that control Labor don’t want Rudd, who threatens their power, but are facing a wipe out either way. Will Rudd stand? (UPDATE: Heywood in comments says Rudd has agreed to contend). Will some other candidate pick up this poisoned chalice? Despite all this, the public perversely want Julia to go the election. Payback time?
Voting at 7pm EST tonight. See Bolt. (A bit over an hour to go).
“Gillard calls a leadership ballot for 7pm tonight. Says she will stand. Says no one has told her they will stand against her. “
Oakshott and Windsor both resign, doing the only thing they can after betraying their largely conservative voters: flee from their constituents retribution. Both these men have likely cost the nation billions of dollars with their self-serving decisions to seek political “stability”.
See this post for updates as they come in… this is a constitutional first in Australian history. Rudd still needs the votes on the floor of the House. The election date is up in the air. The Deputy (Albanese). The Treasurer?
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UPDATE: 8pm EST: No decision on deputy or an election date, yet. No announcement about timing of visit to the GG, yet.
The ABC is canvassing constitutional lawyers. Rudd needs confidence on the floor (meaning enough House of Reps Votes — I hear Katter pledged before the vote, what will the other independents do?)…. or he will have to call an election asap.
————————————–
UPDATE: 8:25pm. Independent Andrew Wilkie will vote with Kevin.
Julia Gillard will be resigning (when? – presumably at the election…)
Swan, Ludwig, Conroy, have quit the cabinet. Emerson too.
Garrett will go?
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UPDATE: 8:40pm. According to Annabel Crabb on News 24 Rudd may lower carbon tax?
Penny Wong is new leader of the Senate.
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UPDATE: For anyone who can bear the gory detail, and is curious about the spectacle, OzBoy sums up the last few ridiculous years of Australian politics. h/t to Delingpole for the tip.
If your socialists are like our socialists, no one will willingly accept the Captaincy of a sinking ship driven onto the reef by an idiot.
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International Marxism probably have a good tax free payed job for her in their organization. To rid the real problem you have to vote labour out of government and defund international Marxism.
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defund international Marxism? Ok when are we quitting the UN then.
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Everything that WWF and Greenpeace are involved with. UNEP, UNFCCC, etc etc….
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“If your socialists are like our socialists, no one will willingly accept the Captaincy of a sinking ship driven onto the reef by an idiot.”
She did all this and tries to give the control of the ship to somebody else just before impact?
Captaincy?
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Ho hum, nothing will happen tonight.
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I hope Gillard remains.. wipe-out confirmed !!!
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You just lost the bet.
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For those who might have missed it- in anticipation of a Rudd win- my take on the Shakespearean tragedy about to reach its denouement.
http://1984redux.wordpress.com/2012/05/21/the-tragedy-of-julia-caesar/
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What was that “political overture” or custom (US bias)?
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Ms. Gillard [snip] thinks she’s smarter then she is.
I wish I could claim that line, but it was a former woman person of mine. She coined it about Hilary Clinton.
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If she takes a wrong step in this leadership spill she won’t look electable with mud on her face… AGAIN. [.GIF] [YouTube] 🙂
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I’m tempted to stay up for a couple of more hours for the juice.
Yes, the Australian public want Julia to remain just so they can give her the baseball bats. She’s the one that deserves them the most.
I said 12 months ago that Windsor and Oakeshott would not hang around for the next election. They’ll be happy enough to scurry off like the rats they are with their cheese (Parliamentary pensions) and leave the sinking ship……
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Say, notice how today Tony Abbott mentioned about calling an election for August 3rd.
That’s the earliest date an election can be called so as it includes a Half Senate election. Any date earlier, and it can only be a vote for the Reps, and we’ll need a second vote later on for the Half Senate.
I still have this niggling little feeling that the
driftflood of voters deserting Labor actually might see the Coalition gain control of The Senate, which will make a Double Dissolution not needed.Tony.
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Also, just as an aside.
Say Julia hangs on and gets dumped as predicted at the next election, and contrary to what she says, she just ups and quits on the spot during her concession speech, which we all know is what is going to happen.
Her Superannuation as the Ex PM losing at an election is infinitely higher than it would be as a mere backbencher.
I could cuttingly say that this sort of equates to the Climate Change Debate, being just about the money.
Tony.
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Just heard KRudd on the radio. He is contesting. It’s on!!!
-=—
Thanks Heywood. Updated. -Jo
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The pace has accelerated then, because that eternal stirrer Graham Richardson went on 2GB this afternoon saying that a leadership ballot would be run by caucus tomorrow morning (not tonight) and that he thought KRudd would win by a narrow margin.
Sounds like Gillard’s Left are tactically cutting down the available time for KRudd’s Left to shore up support.
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Saw on Twitter earlier that the Unions are doing the rounds, threatening to cut pre-selection for those who vote for Rudd. Don’t know how true it is, but not surprising at all.
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As the Australian political drama unfolds, it will be accompanied by weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth across the Tasman when the MSM, greenies, enviro-zealots and AGW carbon tax fixated pollies see the writing on the wall.
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Julia has put on this condition:
Simply means she has excluded a third party from standing for PM.
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Dave,
She can state that as a condition if she likes (and she has nothing to lose since after the general election she’ll be elsewhere, one way or the other, anyway) but no contender need agree to it.
Even if he/she/it did, when did any labor politician feel bound by a promise?
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Retiring from Australian federal politics perhaps, but Kevin Rudd has international occupational plans for 2016. He’s already booked in…
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd has joined global business and political heavyweights as an adviser on a new, $US300 million, China-focused scholarship program
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It will be almost as much fun to watch tonight as election night itself.
I said it before- don’t bring on the election any sooner than September 14- this is just too much fun to cut it off now.
(But seriously folx- the people who know Rudd hate him. This was obvious even before the last election, and those of us who watch politics and remember the way he knifed Laurie Brereton to get the job as opposition Foreign Affairs spokesman could never understand how the little creep got the top job. Gillard has a lot of faults, and with luck, faces a period of incarceration for her AWU antics, but Rudd???)
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“don’t bring on the election any sooner than September 14- ”
I disagree..
We need to get to healing Australia asap !
And much as the spectacle of watching the ALP destroying itself is fun, we mustn’t be selfish.
Australia comes first, and the only way to do this is with a new government.
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Be fair though AndyG. The change of government is boring and inevitable. Why can’t we have a bit of fun watching it?
I’ll make it worth your while- a dollar on Gillard. The site will work out a way to manage the stakes.
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I do understand you point of view, believe me.
But for the county’s sake, we have to forego that.
The country is far more important than our little pleasures.
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Hi Andy & Gnome,
My money is on Rudd, but all winnings to be paid to JO, a very worthwhile cause.
Jo, if you agree, I plead $20.00 to you if Julia wins the ballot tonight.
Only 22 minutes to go.
This will be the quickest betting ring in Australian history.
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OK $20- you’re on!
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Thanks Gnome.
Jo’s going to get a quick $20 regardless.
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Sorry Dave, no idea how this will play out.. no can bet !
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I’ve been reading and watching a lot of the antics this afternoon.
My thought: these kiddies are paid big bucks and are supposed to be running our country.
No wonder they fell for the green lie about the carbon tax, they are grade one titanium plated idiots.
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Think about it
The electorate was denied a 3yr vote on the Rudd Govt. Instead it was asked to vote for Gillard as new PM – dead heat
If Rudd wins tonight, the electorate will then be denied a 3yr vote on the Gillard Govt. We are simply not allowed to vote on either record. Democracy in action !
The cynical, self-serving hypocrisy of the ALP is limitless … equal only to its’ incompetence
If Rudd does win (probably narrowly), Windsor has stated he will not oppose a no-confidence motion (he can always change his mind, especially since he’s indulging his cowardice) so Abbott may be able to force a no-confidence motion through tomorrow
But somehow, I doubt it
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Bill shorten has just comes out in support of KRudd.
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Shorten declaring for Gillard
No surprise there then
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OK- it’s looking black, but surely they can’t vote for Rudd. They know him. To know him is to hate him.
Shorten looks good on TV, but when he supports Rudd he just cheapens his future reputation. It won’t be forgotten.
Like I said- Fun fun fun.
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Rudd until the election.. Shorten shortly afterwards.
Looks like that’s the call !!
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I heard somewhere that Shorten controlled 6 votes.
Rudd won by 12. That means that Shorten was the kingmaker. If he’d stayed with Gillard the vote would have been tied.
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wow.. this is fun.. ya goota keep updating Blair and Bolt blogs
quoting Tim Blair blog………………..
UPDATE V. Lanai Scarr reports:
A key Rudd backer just told me that there was no petition.
If this is the case, and Rudd wins, he’s pulled off one of the greatest scams in Australian political history.
UPDATE VI. Bill Shorten TURNS AGAINST Julia Gillard. He’s just announced he’ll vote for Rudd. Whoa!
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You’ve got to admit, AndyG, this is easily worth a dollar.
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Rudd pledges loyalty to Gillard after ballot defeat!
Ahahaa, that was the headine from 16 months ago, did I fool ya? 🙂 And a fine pledge of loyalty that was! He’s only broken it twice since then!
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There’ll be blood on the floor after this one. Good for flushing out the traitors if nothing else.
Popcorn anyone ?
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Is an embarrassment of riches, no more Juliar, no more Swanny, no more Combet and Labour will still lose the election.
Im cracking a second bottle of red tonight.
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come on, do you really think Conbet won’t kiss Rudd’s assets ??
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It’s all over. Labour have lost their nerve.
Gillard is Gone.
Congratulations Aus.
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Congratulations for what? Kevin Rudd created all the problems such as a rapidly bloated bureaucracy, porous border control policies, increasing government regulation on the private sector etc. All this helped squander a once in a lifetime economic bounty from selling iron ore, coal and natural gas to supply China’s growth that could help fund a more productive and internationally competitive economy.
Gillard just inherited the mess and made it worse. Australia now faces the prospect of voters with short memories re electing the architect Kevin Rudd and the Labor party to another 3 years of government.
Rudd also leads a party loaded with climate alarmists – more so than the Opposition who have avowed sceptics in their ranks (even though their official climate policy is almost as bad but that’s another story :-))
No, save your congratulations for if and when Labor are defeated at the Federal election. This is the only outcome that could restore business confidence in this country and give greater hope to those who aren’t enamoured with Big Government ‘solutions’ to every problem.
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The Nine commentators are assuming KRudd will win, Rudd’s former press secretary is saying he’ll win, Laurie Oakes reckons floating the carbon price (to let it drop to EU levels) will be one of Rudd’s first steps.
Sure it’s all talking heads, but I find Nine to be second only to the ABC in trumpeting official policy to help manage the public’s perception. There’s a lot KRudd sales patter and reassurance happening here.
And the SMS text from inside the room is “Rudd is home”.
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LOL – all these ALP Pollies coming out saying if they lose they will quit parliament – 80 days before the people will kick them out at the next election.
Gee, they’re just OrlBorlz. What complete heroes….. NOT…. LOSERS….
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The Milky Bar Kid rides again!
“The media attention is on me!”
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Rolled- Oh the ignominy! Still- it was worth the $21 I lost, and it goes on giving!
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Word is… Swan, Emerson, Ludwig have now all “resigned”. (Translation: rolled by Rudd.)
Wong is staying on Finance, so leftist redistribution to unproductive activities will not even skip a beat.
That’s from Nine’s mole so wait for the official news.
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Exactly and this is why there IS a difference between the two parties. It should be remembered any vote for Kevin Rudd would be a vote for continuation of or even expansion of taxpayer funded subsidies to economically unproductive activities. The redistribution part is the part that creates more jobs in the Bureaucracy. In itself that is the main game of the Labor party.
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57 – 45 to KRudd
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Yep, it’s a Ruddslide again.
Put your Left hand in, put your Left hand out, Left hand in,…
Lodge staff are advised to clean the dirty ring off the edge of the pool.
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YEs, confirmed by a Labor Spokesman on ABC radio Rudd wins 57:45.
No decision on deputy or an election date. No announcement about timing of visit to the GG.
The ABC is canvassing constitutional lawyers. Rudd needs confidence on the floor (meaning enough House of Reps Votes — I hear Katter pledged before the vote, what will the other independents do?)…. or he will have to call an election asap.
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But But But Catamon Promised that JuLiar would be the PM at the next election….. She said the lady wasn’t for rolling…
Say it ain’t true Catamon, say it ain’t true.
So if all the LNP voters forget to vote and the ALP get back into power, how many weeks will he remain as PM before being rolled by the unions again?
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I think Catamon just had kittens!
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Or could that be Catamon the pigeons.
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Yes – around Christmas I wrote here that JuLIAR would be rolled before the next election, and Abbott would subsequently be replaced by Turnbull either immediately before, or within six months after, the next election.
Catamon rubbished my comment with the line “why do you keep doing it to yourself, MV? Gillard will lead the Labor Party into the next election . . . blah blah blah”.
Well, one down, and one to go. Where’s the Cat when I have the desire to gloat?.
.
Oh, incidentally – I just won $800.00 with the bookies (unless the Labor Party changes its mind – again). I reckon I’m in the running for another $7,500.00 over the course of the election.
So, in answer to Cat’s question – why do I do it?. Because after thirty years of non-partisan study of Australian politics, I’m right more often than not. More importantly, I figured out how to make it pay.
Praise the Lord for stupid politicians and even more foolish bookies.
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Made the same prediction Rudd Vs Turnbull bet with my brother …minus the money. Gave him the option of double or nothing Rudd vs Hockey ….. Not even a nibble 6 months ago.
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Oh i am here MV. Wouldn’t miss my favorite comedy site tonight. Gloat away.
Really, in any rational system Rudd would have stopped his white anting months ago but the ego he has, and the MSM wanting a feed, and he just wouldn’t let it go. Sad day for the country i think.
So, moving forward, 🙂 , we still have a binary solution set for the election.
Rudd. Sociopath little prat. ALP with some depth of talent even with most of their A team refusing to serve under him. Also, some actual, demonstrated economic literacy.
Abbott. Mr Shuddering Brainlock with a demonstrated inability to think on his feet. “Leads” a party where True Disbeliever’s like Cory (Beasty Boy) Bernardi are powerful, and they have such a shallow talent pool that Bishop the Younger and Serial Stuff Up is Shadow FM.
So, regardless, Vote ALP if for no other reason that the alternative is just so nonviable. FFS, they are still the kind of morons hankering for the Howard years.
It is interesting seeing the degree to which the nastier of the right winger drones across a few blogs are out to gloat tonight. Gloat on MV. 🙂
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Catamon:
It is worth considering that KRudd did to Guilleard exactly what her faction did to him. It is equally unacceptable for exactly the same reasons. Of course there will be some spouting on about how it’s the party electing the leader etc etc etc – just like last time. And yes, it is neuseating.
Is that finally a recognition that the ALP is systematically dysfunctional? I would for once actually agree with you on that one. Of course months ago? how about years ago? How about the last 6 months of KRudds regime?
Did you not get the memo? – you’re meant to help the party for the grater good catamon – at least until after this next
defeatelection.Maybe you can start up your own party? You can have Malcolm Turnbull.
REGIME CHANGE NOW!
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So what? This is national politics not boy scouts.
Nope. The irrationality i refer to is the media driven obsession with the theater rather than the substance of politics and the feedback effect that has on political discourse. LeaderSh#t is really the most obvious expression of that over the last few years.
A good three worder which seems to be about the limit of what right wingers actually get, but to what MV? Something run by the idiots of the Fiberal Right wing?
Have to admit to being amused by some of the “majority in the House” comments around at the moment. Brandt, Katter, and Wilke have already declared confidence in a Rudd led Govt which reatins all its seats until the election. Thomson and Slipper will likely act simply to block Abbott given the bad blood there. Windsor and Oakeshott keeping it close to their chests as far as i know, but looks like the ALP will have the numbers for confidence through to the election provided Rudd doesn’t have a meltdown sobbing hissy fit.
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Cat – “Sad day for the country i think.”
Yes – indeed it is!!
An EXTREMELY sad day.
You wouldn’t believe how many people have told me that they are SO pissed off with the Labor party taking away THEIR right (again) to vote out Australia’s WORST PM (ever) so THEY can install the SECOND worst PM (ever) (again) after she took that privilege (voting Rudd out) away from the Australian people in 2010.
They are CERTAINLY NOT going to vote for KRudd this time either!! They will just get back at the unions for taking that privilege away from all of us in 2010 and are even MORE determined to PUNISH the Labor party for their crass disregard for the wish of the people!! BUNCH OF MONGRELS!!!
As someone wrote on a blog recently – they could install Daffy Duck or Mickey Mouse – result will be the same. Who would still vote for this mob of fools?
Cheers,
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Catamon,
This quote of yours is a classic-
You have plumbed new depths in your level of delusion. You truly need medicating if you actually believe anything contained in that quote. FFS, is right.
You prefer a pathological liar to someone you concede is a sociopath, but prefer either to the opposition, regardless of who was leading them, Gandhi or Jesus included. And you have the hide to denigrate those who long for an era of unprecedented economic prosperity and rare competent governance (at least when compared to serial disasters both before and afterwards from a parade of fools from McMahon to Whitlam to Fraser to Keating to Rudd to Gillard) as “morons”. Unbelievable projection on your part. The only “depth” of talent on display is the detritus at the bottom of the gene pool who have opted for the slim chance to save their own neck by stabbing the leader they were allegedly loyal to only a couple of weeks before. Such lofty heights to which you aspire, Cat.
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No! Vote For Themm!
NUNNOV, Themm!Don’t we deserve a third option?
Skip the sociopath and the Green Abbott, pick an independent or vote for Themm.
But I’ll upvote you for the Beasty Boy nick, that’s hilarious…
…oh! KRudd’s giving a speech finally…
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Oh, I’m enjoying my gloat, Cat, but please dispense with the childish attempts at redirection: I am not gloating over Rudd’s defeat of JuLIAR, I’m gloating about MY superior knowledge of Australian politics, over your infantile groupthink opinion. You summed your naive views up in one sentence:
We are talking about Australian politics here, Cat. I can assure you, all the rational people left the stage long ago, along with the rest of the adults. Looking for rational thought amongst the rabble infesting our Federal Parliament today – on both sides – is akin to seeking divine salvation in Ron Boswell’s Assembly of God Church.
Trying to hook my “gloat” to other people gloating about Gillard’s fall from grace just isn’t gunna work, Cat. You can’t count me as an Abbott/LNP supporter. I’ve scored as many “thumbs up” here as anybody. However, I’ve also scored as many “thumbs down” as a troll like . . . well, like you, for my criticism of Abbott and the Liberals.
.
No, my gloat is real personal – just between you and some other trolls, and me. And it’s just starting, Cat.
I hope you like the taste of humble pie, because you and the other trolls are going to be eating a lot of it over the next three years.
.
Now, you want to go double or nothing on Turnbull (or maybe somebody else) replacing Abbott in the next six months or so?
I’m prepared to bet my credibility. Since you don’t have any, you’ll have to come up with something else to wager.
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I thought you were older MV?? Yet you act like a 12 year old? Thumbs up and down are that important to you, at this site?? Whatever.
Politcs and the discussion of same does involve being wrong at times you know.
so you may not be easy, but you are cheap.
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Still more deflection, Cat?
The bet is, will Abbott be replaced as Leader of the LNP in the next six months or so?
You rubbished my prediction that both Abbott and Gillard would be replaced. Let me remind you of your statement in reply:
Such overwhelming confidence in yourself. You assured readers BOTH leaders would retain their positions BEFORE and AFTER the election. There was no doubt: – I was totally wrong and you were totally right. As it turns out, you are already 50% wrong, and we haven’t even had an election declared yet.
.
Make all the sleazy, crass jokes you like: – I bet MY credibility against your . . . what?
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I did? When? Usually, after an election whoever was leader on the losing side steps down so i suspect you may have misread a previous post of mine. Or i may have been stirring…who’d a thunk it. 🙂
On Abbott. If the Fibs win small i suspect he’ll step down for health reasons. That way they can dump him and his commitments that are controversial within the LNP without “knifing a first term pm” or being seen to roll their leader. Id think the grumpy true disbeliever set would be happy with that?
If the Fibs win big enough to contemplate the DD they will need to trash the place as they have proposed, i’d say they will keep him as DD’s are risky.
Maybe then they will take farce and incoherence to a new level and appoint Barnyard as leader?? 🙂
04
There is a thumbs up well deserved!
00
So you being fully rational decided the best place to argue your political view is on a climate site. Nice One
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Its a political post on a climate site. So your problem is??
07
Well YOU assume everyone but you has a problem. A political post on a climate site is not strange over time but so soon after breaking news is a wee bit needy.
So posting here to vent your own frustration is in no way a problem of mine.
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…..he still has to get a majority in the house though. Any bets?
40
.
THAT is the $64 million question, Meltemian.
Tomorrow will be an interesting day in Australian politics.
Possibly, viewed from a few years into the future, even more interesting than today.
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No bet, but it’s quite possible, although unlikely, that TA could be Caretaker PM by close of play Thursday. If Jokeshott and Windbag really meant what they said about any deal they had was with JG, not Labor, then KRudd second stint at this job could become the shortest in history. Katter, of course, says he’ll support KRudd. I didn’t think you could fit a bigger idiot under that hat. Seems I was wrong.
I love the smell of constitutional crises in the morning. The ALP imploding was something I would only get to see once. To see it a second time, in living colour as well, makes me all misty eyed. And this time they didn’t even stop my wages ( I was in the Army when supply was blocked. No pay, no fresh food.I’ll never eat another ham steak as long as I live. ) !
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Bugger!
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Don’t take it so personally JB. It’s going to be more of the same from KRudd’s Labor as Juliar’s Labor, slightly less Stalinesque and more poll-driven perhaps, but all very much the same policies and the incoming torrent of electorate inducements will impoverish the next generation just as deeply.
Caeser is dead. Long live Caeser!
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Ya think? Rudd, caring about polls?? Still, he’ll probably bring the poll we all want a little closer,
so I’ll cut him a little slackwhat am I saying??10
Didn’t one of them marry an ass?
Does that make JB a widower?
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A man of few words, but heartfelt sentiment.
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I believe “sediment” works better.
00
Maybe she can knit herself a hanky.
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Hard to do when the wool is over her eyes. 🙂
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Wool is remarkably absorbent & remains effective when wet.
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Why so sad JB ?
It’s the only chance the ALP had to avoid a devastating wipe out.
Now the dissembling and prevaricating begins, giving dyed in the wool ALP voters the possibility to imagine all is not quite lost. Though they will make the best of it, this is the worse outcome for the LNP who have lost that clear symbol to remind voters of ALP recent performance.
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I can think of worse names for KRudd than that, JB. That is what you meant, isn’t it?
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Wrong blogsite John!!
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That gets a LOL from me Ceetee
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In my mind at least, Bill Shorten will for ever be remembered as “Janus Shortarm” 🙂
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My fave quote so far:
29 June 2010.
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Yes, and didn’t you just love the way his bottom lip quivered with emotion as he said it?
He perfected that look during the Beaconsfield disaster. Went down super-well with Koche and the Sunrise set on Channel Seven.
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I thought Brutus might be appropriate. I mean, Julia Caesar had her Praetorian Guard, after all. Bill was one of them.
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Andrew McRae –
great link on Schwarzman Scholars. u have to laugh when u look at the rest of the Advisory Board for this China-centred venture.
for example, apart from Rudd, Blair, Sarkozy & Mulroney, u have Henry Kissinger, Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice, Hank Poulson, Robert “Bob” Rubin & James Wolfensohn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schwarzman_Scholars#Advisory_Board
the left/right political paradigm exists only for the voting public, who are really given no choice at all.
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pat, you and the other anonymous posters can say the things that unfortunately I fear us nominative commentators cannot.
All I can do is point to the facts, put some more “dots on the page”, but if were to connect the dots in the obvious way people would simply laugh at me or slam me for telling them things they don’t want to be true.
There is value in you highlighting reported events without adding your interpretation so that (in an Inception kind of way) people can reach their own understanding of the significance of the events. But more and more you will have to connect the dots for them too.
The contest is whether the other side can bring their plans to fruition before the public reaches that stage of peak awareness.
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Oh, is Andrew McRae your REAL name? How do we know that for sure? The only name I’m sure of here is Joanne Nova.
11
Although, J Brooks may be real, because he posts a photo. But is it really him???
01
No, John Brookes is not John Brookes, He is another man, with the same name.
10
If you hang around the right coffee shops of Perth long enough you may spot him.
JB may be the one extolling the Latte set to vote Liberal this time.
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Andrew,
I don’t know Pat at all, but I do no lots of other media researchers, and judging what he/she comments here, Pat is one of the best.
Joining the dots requires different skills from finding the dots. In fact, in a lot of cases they are mutually antagonistic.
Research must instruct the analysis (the dot joining). If analysis gets the upper hand, it can bias the research, and cause critical factors to be missed or ignored.
The whole climate fiasco is a prime example of a desired outcome driving the inputs.
These biases are rife within the political milieu which is why the more sensible political parties, and the public servants close to the core, bring in independent (and nominally agnostic) “advisors” from time to time. They have the job of, “locating the stable foot-holds in the midden”.
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Confirmation bias. Paralysis through analysis. All very familiar. 🙁
When a hypothesis is so vague that facts do not necessarily disprove it but don’t confirm it either, it is easy to discount the hypothesis instead of developing the hypothesis more fully.
eg- I knew about the Schwarzman Scholars link a month ago. But did this mean KRudd would win the ballot because it is preordained that he carry out China’s will in Australia? Or did it mean that he would not win the ballot because he already has other plans and clients and has to be free to connive in the background?
Was the whole Rudd/Gillard/Rudd sequence planned from the beginning, using Gillard as the disposable Prime Minister for the most unpopular legislation, swapping Rudd back in to resell in the election? What if what if…
OTOH one could try to forget all about it and simply “live in the present” which is allegedly a nicer state of affairs.
00
Well just for the record my real name is crakar i just added the 24 because i was the 24th copy.
In regards to joining the dots i disagree to a point, you need to give all the information you have, present it in such a way that even an idiot can comprehend so as they can reach their own conclusion. This way it was their idea so it must make sense to them.
On the other hand i agree sometimes a few dots need to be joined beforehand its like that old saying
You can lead a horticulture but you cannot make her think.
00
And here I was thinking that our 3 Ring Circus was worse than yours. Your next election is actually a scientific poll of the level of la-la stupidity that exists in the Australian electorate. FFS are these people completely devoid of redeeming qualities?. I am speechless at the crass horsetrading aspect of it all. FFS!!!
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They are all just rats running around on a sinking ship now.
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“Caeser is dead. Long live Caeser!”. Shakespeare understood politics. What price democracy in the hands of fools and crooks. Watch NZ closely because by jingo we have a similar situation brewing nicely here. Bad polls bring out long knives.
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One thing though.. if Gillard does resign from parliament as promised, who will they replace Rudd with after the election, (win or loose)
41
Pretty sure that’s what Bill was up to when he declared his loyalty shift
today, (Christ, as that the time?) yesterday. People call him Kingmaker. I think he’s tired of that job.30
How many overseas trips will PM Kevin 747 squeeze in between now and the election?
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Does the Royal couple still get the little Roo Julia knitted?
What happens if it’s a boy and they call it Edward?
Or will Kevin knit one too?
50
Stitch one pearl one drop one and presto knitted myself a new government.
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Perhaps there will be a position in Rudds New Government for Julia after all, a non- political one of course) for Royal Roo Knitter in Residence.
That’s what happens after pollies become unelectable, they get appointments.
In Europe it’s typically as Commissioners to the EU, the graveyard for resigned and once electable politicians.
That would only be temporary of course, until after the happy event, whence the UN beckons.
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Press conference summary…
Gillard is very proud of everything:
* Proud she threw money at underperforming kids in underperforming schools in the hope resources will somehow make every kid the same.
* Proud she put a tax on air.
* Proud she Created a witch hunt into child abuse in the Catholic Church.
* Proud she Sold out to China AND the USA equally.
* Proud she Went to the funerals of 24 soldiers killed in Afghanistan whilst saying what a great achievement Afghanistan has been.
* Proud she Remained a woman the entire time without changing sexes.
She remains committed to meddling in people’s lives and telling people who’ve actually had kids what to do with them.
Okay I paraphrased a bit there, the words may not be verbatim. 😉
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No mention of being proud of exposing Australian sports people as drug cheats. Maybe. ?
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No mention of proudly trying to stop the rising tide of illegal arrivals by recycling just 3 bricks of Howard’s “Pacific Solution” to build her own wall?
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The outgoing Wayne Swan said the LNP coalition are all about “survival of the fittest” and they will impose “European-style austerity” measures if they win government.
Oh really, how could such drastic measures be necessary if you’ve left the economy and the government balance sheet in such great shape Wayne?
*crickets*
But that’s a sneak peek of the Labor campaign, and seeing the bunch of snakes in Canberra the “austerity” may even actually happen – it’s not like political ideology or democratic choice has made much difference to the course of country in the last 15 years.
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And now that Juliar is no longer a sitting PM, will the Victorian Police investigation into the AWU slush fund proceed apace?
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Isn’t that why they rolled her?
They know what’s coming. They can hear the jangling of the ‘cuffs.
We can’t have them doing a Berlusconi on an Australian Prime Minister. Doing it to an “ex” makes it OK though.
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I presume Rudd was wearing a tie?
What colour?
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Certainly was and it was BLUE!!!
Almost sky blue with a dark blue checked grid pattern. The irony was not lost on me when I saw it.
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Do you really have to ask?
30
And Bob Carr had a blue tie today too! And he backed KRudd!
The men in blue ties are everywhere!
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I hope British politicians take note.
(I also I hope it doesn’t improve Aussie performance in The Ashes.)
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Reading all of the news and comments from OZ makes me wonder if any actual work has been done in the last 24 hours or will be in the next 24.
Actually, I did see that the stewards of the Warragamba Dam are busy trying to create a little buffer in their reservoir – seems there is a lot of water therein. Can anyone confirm the rumor they called the BOM folks to find out where all the Dam water has come from?
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Julia went all in and lost the whole pot. To make a political miscalculation of that magnitude, you have to be well into your own peculiar bunker mentality. No doubt, a comfy sinecure at the UN now awaits her.
I wonder what the ALP/Krudd will promise. Will there be anyone gullible enough to believe them? Tune in again, same bat time, same bat channel …
Pointman
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I would not at all be surprised if they can the carbon tax to throw off the Coalition. No doubt they would need something to placate the Greens – I think that will come in the form of more “renewables” and such.
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[…] agreed to contend). Will some other candidate pick up this poisoned chalice? Despite all this, the public perversely want Julia to go the election. Payback […]
00
Ding dong the witch is dead. Now when is she going to prison?
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That is a very good question. Whatever happened about this?
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Was trying not to say that. It is indeed what springs to mind though.
Fear she’ll be back when there’s more dirty work to do though.
00
There he’s back. And didn’t he say, back in March,’There are
no circumstances under which I will return to the leadership
of the Australian Labor Party in the future?’
Play it again Sam.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vThuwa5RZU
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That’s the thing. You can’t trust any of ’em! Where’s the honesty? Where’s the honour?!
I’m glad Gillard is gone. Now let’s get rid of the rest of them. As entertaining as they are with all this in-fighting, I’ve had it with this thieving government.
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Please stop reading what a normal person sees. What KRudd said was that he saw no circumstances under which I will return to the leadership
of the Australian Labor Party. Circumstances have changed since then so of course he had to become Labor leader again.
Incidendly, in Julia’s after defeat speech she carefully stated that as accorded by the pre-election agreement, she would not stand for the federal electorate of Lalor. This of course does not exclude any other federal or state electorate.
Politicians always leave wriggle room, even when it goes against the literal words they say.
00
Tim Matheison:
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I’ve just gotten up – when I went to bed Krudd was the elected PM.
A good 10 or so hours have passed since then.
Can someone please confirm that Krudd is still the leader of the ALP? Or has he been usurped again?
I will check in a bit later as well. Maybe I need an RSS feed app just to keep a track of things.
30
I understand they are going to install a revolving door in the entrance to the Prime Ministerial suite?
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Labor will have to swap PMs so often that it is worth saving the energy of physically transporting them around. Taking advice from Ray Kurzweil, they are going to upload the minds of Juliar and KRudd into virtual machines which can then be alternately paused and unpaused rapidly.
Last year IBM created a supercomputer with the same number of artificial neurones as a domestic cat, so simulation of an ALP politician is probably already within the reach of the DSTO.
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I believe what happened last night was theatre for the electorate. This hasn’t changed anything, just gives us something to talk about.
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No
The ALP Caucus really does not want the electorate-at-large voting on the Govt record (either Gillard’s or Rudd’s)
So they (Caucus) keep on re-booting in an attempt to avoid this
There is no limit to the cynical hypocrisy here … and a large proportion of the electorate are stupid enough to believe
20
A question from a Kiwi:
Given the polls were saying Rudd is more palatible to the voters than Gillard does this mean the Greens may have to worry? All those ALP supporters who were “disappointed” with the ALP and went further left to the Greens –will any or some return to the ALP under Rudd?
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Ross,
I doubt Rudd could claw back enough votes to win in his own right so there is a good chance the Labor/green alliance may come into play during and if they win after the election. So in the end we will get the same level of competency in government that is until Bill Shorten decides he wants to be PM and Rudd gets knifed again then we will become the first nation ruled by a union oh what fun that will be.
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Well, it was even on TV here in Belgium. My reaction was a loud “WOW”, so that my wife asked what was happening? I told her that the Australian Margaret Tatcher was defeated in her own party… Interesting times in Australia anyway.
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Hate to break it to you Ferdinand but Gillard was no Margaret Thatcher. Maggie was smart, competent and the opposite of a communist. Gillard was merely evil and fairly stupid. Failed student politician, failed lawyer, failed politician and failed Prime Minister. Commie too.
Now we’re in trouble. Rudd is just as evil and psychopathic but is activist and a lot smarter than Julia. He can do a lot more damage yet.
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Julia is flat out dangerous. She’s an out of control asteroid compared against an interstellar luminary like Dame Margaret.
I struggle though to decide upon a comparison between Julia and her successor.
Rudd is also a former diplomat who unlike elected politicians used to brawling in the gutter, has been used to the elevated and sanctioned state of appearing to be ‘nice’ to all, whilst concealing agenda and intention. I suspect time will tell, but one treats smoke and mirrors with great caution.
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I agree with you and Mike above. I suspect the rest of the Aussie public can see clearly enough that if Rudd was stabbed in the back once by Gillard, it can happen again. I know she said she’d resign, but, hey, she’s lied before! I don’t trust her!
Anyone voting for Rudd won’t be sure they’ll keep him after the election. Labor put him in place because he scores higher than Gillard. That’s it. They’re after votes, not fixing Australia. They just want to stay in power. Don’t trust any of them!
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That’s “corrupt failed lawyer”…..
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That’s ALLEGED “corrupt failed lawyer”…..
We don’t need you or Jo getting into legal trouble now.
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Thatcher destroyed the unions and the workers in the UK she was terrible!
13
No, Thatcher took on the Miners, and broke the strangle hold that the union movement had on the British economy. The far left hated her with a vengeance over it, but the right, center, and the more moderate left all breathed a sigh of relief, and got on with earning a living.
People forget that when workers went on strike, they lost pay. With a decrease in industrial action, most of those workers were much better off, and didn’t feel “destroyed” at all. The ones that weren’t better off were those with untaxed, under the counter, casual labour jobs, that they could no longer do whilst “on strike”.
You shouldn’t believe everything that you read in the political literature.
60
Yeah, wish we had someone to do that here.
00
Rereke has got it right. I was in England when Thatcher got in, and for quite some years after. I saw first-hand the change around she brought to the country. She stopped the destruction in its tracks and brought the economy around. I wish we had one like her, here.
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Thanks to all for the extra info! I had the impression that Juliard was for the left what Thatcher was for the right. But that was from sporadic information.
00
Everyone I spoke to in the last year hated Juliar and wanted her out. Seems the only reason for her election was that she’d be our first woman PM, similar to the USSA’s Knobama being the first black prez. If people are so stupid to elect officials for insane reasons they deserve what they get. Unfortunately, it’s not helping the rest of us.
Last night I was very upset by the left-leaning TV stations broadcasting Labor’s farcical puppet show that they didn’t show mine – Time Team and Mythbusters. Labor’s stupidity has a far reaching impact.
50
The oath and affirmation have a prescribed format as written in the schedule of the Australian Constitution, but at the swearing in this morning the words used by Rudd and co. bore little resemblance.
Rudd should return to the G.G. and be sworn in lawfully otherwise the Constitution is being treated with contempt.
30
Yah! The wicked witch is gone! Now if only Nancy Pelosi, the wicked witch of the west leaves the US House of Representatives, will the world be right again.
00
The smart money is on Abbott stepping aside allowing Julie Bishop to lead the Libs then all the fembots will have someone to vote for again and KRudd can be called a misogynist pig whenever the mood strikes.
60
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All jokes aside, Abbott and the LIBs probably have less than a week to come up with something fairly drastic and realistic to differentiate themselves from “New Labor” under “New Kevin”. There has always only been a cigarette paper’s difference between the two parties’ policies anyway, once you strip away all the rhetoric.
If, in the next few days Resurrected Kevin announces a scrapping of the carbon tax by going straight to an ETS (precisely what Abbott intended to do anyway, without actually saying so), and comes back from his PM meeting with the Indonesian President with a commitment to a joint approach to the people smuggling issue (as alluded to by Bob Carr on Lateline last night), then Tony and the LIBs have precisely nothing to offer as an alternative government.
Given that KRudd was, is, and always has been more popular with the electorate than Abbott anyway, and given that the screecher and her divisiveness has gone, the Treasury purse strings are now back in the hands of a reasonably responsible adult, the misogyny “issue” is back to being a non-issue, what’s left?
Climate change? Apart from the carbon tax both parties are dominated by the CAGW fraud and have almost identical policies for dealing with it. The Mining Tax? The tax that didn’t actually raise anything? A non-issue. Workplace reform? Tony has already announced he won’t touch it with a ten foot barge-pole in the next term of government.
Education reform? Both parties have endorsed the Gonski Report, at least in principle. The NDIS? Again, endorsed in principle by both parties. The NBN? All that is in question is how many tens of billions are to be wasted on already obsolete technology. Responsible government spending? You mean like the paid parental leave scheme?
.
So, what’s left? Land rights for gay whales, maybe?
23
doGs MV, you and Crackchild are soooooo good to read. 🙂
00
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Cat, sometimes I feel sorry for you. You don’t even know to quit when you are behind.
Not that you’ve actually said anything of consequence anyway – as usual.
00
Your sad rants and grumpy pontification provide endless humour MV. Thankyou.
00
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Yeah – it’s just too bad my “sad rants” are almost invariably correct.
Now once again – you want to go double or nothing on Abbott being replaced in the next six months?
00
MV, i’ll pass on a bit of advice, most oft times given to children when they have to deal with schoolyard issues.
When a nasty little toad of the nyahh, nyahh variety tries to badger you into a “bet”. Just flip the twit the bird and treat them as a humorous object lesson on how not to be. But always be polite.
Just sayin….. 🙂
02
Cat,
I dont understand you, you float in and out of here and i ignore you when you are here and yet you still try to drag me into your fantasies. I believe you have some sort of fetish love for me and i wish it to stop immediately please.
Now dont get me wrong i dont hate you in fact i feel sorry for you and your kind, i suspect you were handed some dodgy degree from a nonaccredited uni somewhere makes you feel as though you have some entitlement to come and talk smack, so no i blame the social engineers for your predicament. Here is an example of just how bad our schooling system has become.
For those paying attention you will know by now that my son has begun a mechanical engineering degree, he has already sat his mid year maths and statics exams and whilst standing in line to enter the hall to do his electrical exams he over heard a conversation from two social engineering products.
The future Getup leader said “How do you think you will go in our philosophy exam?” and the future Green candidate said “Well i have all my class notes (open book exam) and i have my IPad with all the lecture videos on it…….but i still dont feel prepared”
They only thing missing is the lecturer standing up the front giving them the answers and they still dont feel prepared!!!! My astrolab what kind of idiots are we breeding here, and cat are a product of such idiocy.
Now piss off and dont mention my name again moron.
20
Inedible Hyperbowl is back to being Incoherent Rambler.
00
The difference is about running a surplus or running a deficit. It’s about no carbon tax and no renewables tax. It’s about stopping the boats by going back to temporary protection visas and returning economic refugees to their country of origin. It’s about telling the truth to the public, it’s about a sensible, costed and affordable broadband network, it’s about better trained teachers instead of throwing money at education, it’s about freedom of speech, it’s about developing the North, it’s about encouraging business and manufacturing, it’s about making it affordable to employ people on weekends, it’s about supporting our farmers and getting rid of silly environmental schemes like land clearing rules and the water buyback and, it’s about smaller government with less bureaucrats, paperwork and red tape.
My concern is that there will be backlash by some labor voters against Kevin Rudd causing a move to the Greens and raising their vote and influence.
00
Sounds like hard right code for repealing Weekends.
But hey, if less social cohesion and no recreation time is just the brave new world of labour relations needed to compete with China, crack that whip mein Fuhrer!
10
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Spot on, Andrew.
I’ve never quite understood why Australian shop assistants at Coles or Woolies have to “be competitive” with their Chinese (or elsewhere) counterparts. It’s not as if the average Aussie shopper is going to start flying off to Asia every weekend to buy their toilet paper. Or their burgers, pizzas or fried chicken, for that matter.
10
I do wonder if the Chinese sellers on Ebay do better business on the first day of the week?
00
Australia now has a $20 billion a year structural black hole in the budget, going on the rubbery figures supplied by Treasury. Using more realistic figures, that black hole is more like $50 billion a year. Just to break even, future OZ grubmints have to spend $20 or $50 billion a year less, or tax that much more. Labor is planning to spend $391 billion this year, nearly $20 billion more than projected tax receipts. Liberals are planning to spend $1 billion less. That means a budget deficit of between $40 billion and $70 billion. You think a billion either way will make much difference?
Rudd will probably scrap the carbon tax and move directly to an ETS. Abbott intends doing the same thing. Both parties remain committed to an ETS of 20% by 2020. And the difference is?
TPA’s will not stop the boats. Returning economic refugees to their country of origin (the only thing that could, or would, make a difference), is not even on the drawing boards for either party.
Aww c’mon Janama, I respect your intelligence. These are Australian politicians we are talking about.
South Korean service providers are already offering 4G LTE-A wireless at 150mps – 50% faster than what is on offer from the NBN, at a fraction of the infrastructure cost, using existing 4G technology. Sony have just released the protocols and technology for 5G which will deliver 1gbs (1000mbs) via wireless – that’s ten times faster than the NBN. It should be in commercial production within 5 years – that is, about ten years before the NBN is finished.
Better trained at what? Showing and explaining Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” as “science”? Teaching kids “spelling is irrelevant, expression is everything”? Stomping on individuality while promoting lowest common denominator groupthink?
Education is a lot like computer programming. Garbage In, Garbage Out. It doesn’t matter how big or expensive the computer is. If it is programmed with crap, it will produce crap. For as long as Australian teachers are teaching crap, it doesn’t matter how well trained they are. The output will STILL be crap.
Almost the entire fight against Conroy’s recent attempts to curtail and control free speech, was conducted by the blogosphere, and a small handful of mainstream conservative commentators (Bolt, Blair etc). The number of “conservative” politicians who spoke out on the issue could be counted on half the fingers on one hand.
Yeah, I’ve written about it extensively over the years. The Liberals have put out a two page “discussion paper”, which doesn’t even include a commitment to actually commence a feasibility study.
Like hitting up businesses with a 1% increase in company tax to fund a “paid parental leave” scheme aimed at upper middle class women earning $150,000.00 a year to buy their votes.
Workchoices, Mark II.
You mean like the National Party blocking moves to scrap the monopoly Australian Wheat Board and allow Australian farmers to compete in the open market – like most of them wanted.
And replace them with silly environmental schemes like a conscripted “Green Army” to plant a billion trees to sequester CO2.
Aaaww c’mon, name me ONE party, EVER, that DIDN’T include a promise to reduce the size of the bureaucracy, and cut the paperwork and red tape. Now name one party that actually did it.
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MV I can’t be bothered going through all your replies so I’ll just settle for the last one.
Answer – Liberal Party, Queensland 2013.
00
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4256116.html
00
I can Janama
Point 1, yes we are in debt up to our eyeballs thanks to Labor
Point 2, Without the CO2 tax it will be like point 1 on steroids
Point 3, Labor opened pandoras box but cant find the latch to shut it again as one probably does not exist
Point 4, LLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLL
Point 5, The NBN is another waste of money the liberal plan makes much more sense which is why the stupid Oz public will reject it
Point 6, We dont practice education here we practice indoctrination so if you can afford it send your children to a private school best investment you could ever make
Point 7, Freedom of speech? Oh yeah right so when we march down Burke street to protest something we get arrested under terrorism laws WTFU.
Point 8, Labor looked into this and in the end recommended we kick all the cattle out and grow trees then sit back and get rich on carbon credits!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Point 9, ANZ just announced moving their call centre OS do i need to give more examples
Point 10, You want people to work weekends so you can go shopping? Well then pay them for doing so
Point 11, Yeah right support farmers LOL too much money to be made importing poor quality product from OS while watching farmers go broke
Point 12, Why bother with wishy washy bullshit ideas when you know AGW is crap (see point 4)
Point 13, self explanatory
10
They wimped out. It was meant to be 20,000.
00
****** UPDATE ON THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT *********
******** FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ************
The ALP would like to confirm that what remains of the australian government has survived almost intact throughout the night and the Kevin Rudd is still the prime minister.
An Unnamed source well known for leaking like a sieve stated that “this is a watershed moment for the outgoing government. We are just so happy to have a leader through the last couple of days -it might allow us to start thinking about the needs of the people who put us here and what we can to help the faceless men we represent”.
00
Now that former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard has left office, it’s time to unveil her official portrait.
Julia Gillard – My Work Here Is Done
Tony.
10
Oakshott and Windsor both resign- not quite right- They only said they won’t contest the next election (they could change their mind) which is good and bad- these scumbags are still in Parliament to cause chaos but we are saved from an immediate by-election. You should just clarify if anyone has resigned from Parliament now.
00
So, with the latest advances in fibre optic technology will the new Communications Minister direct NBN.co to rip it all up and start again?
Don’t say we didn’t tell you so.
Oh, by the way, 5G wireless will be with us before we know it…. don’t say we didn’t tell you about advances in wireless technology also.
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What they should be doing is making sure everyone has access to mobile phone coverage. My town in NSW still doesn’t have mobile phone access!!
00
What is the population of your town?
00
Well, it was Labor that killed to Coalition’s mobile phone program and continues to do so.
00
The problem with Rudd is that he is an intellectual pigmy who is out if his depth in many disciplines which includes economics.
Combine that with his egomaniacal personality and you have a “people’s PM” who most times sees no need for any input apart from his own incredible mind. If he did listen to experts he, because of his intellectual dwarfism, would not be able to comprehend their advice. That is why Rudd has been a dangerous choice for PM in the past and potentially in the future.
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Its even a bigger problem that so many people believe he is an intellectual giant. So, he can cobble together a bit of Mandarin? Well, I speak three languages and one of those is the most difficult in the World, far more difficult than Mandarin >> Finnish (fluent)…. does that make me an intellectual über giant?
00
To be honest, this new technology (“orbital angular momentum (OAM) beams”), wouldn’t make the fibre in the ground obsolete, just the terminating equipment and that ought to be fairly easily upgraded over time.
This is a normal progression of technological progress continually increasing throughput on existing infrastructure. One of Edison’s early inventions was a “quadruplexer”, enabling 4 operators at each end of the same line to work simultaneously (2 sending and 2 receiving). Capacity of fibre has increased over time, with the use of multiple frequencies and polarisations.
00
You are wrong there, it does not use the same fibre.
00
…. an optical fibre…..
00