Willie Soon has some fun with the sea-level debate, going back to William the Conqueror, and landmarks in England.
Are sea-levels “accelerating”? Can the satellites resolve sea-level to 1mm changes a year? Why is the raw data so different?
I think the strongest point is the one Nils Axel Morner has made about the extraordinary adjustments in the raw satellite data, which Willie Soon refers too soon after the 20 minute mark.
Willie is always a rapid fire presenter, getting a good response from the audience…
I’d like to know more about Pevensey Castle (7 mins). It was built in 300AD or so, and at the time was a Roman Fort. The sea surrounded it on three sides, now it is 1.5km from the sea. William the Conqueror landed there (or close to it) in 1066. Apparently the water was so high, they used to toss prisoners over the wall and the tide would take their bodies away. Now it is high and dry. Apparently the marshes around the castle have also been actively reclaimed as the land was so valuable. Obviously there are several factors at work. [Google images show how far the sea is now.]
In Roman times Pevensey Castle was next to the ocean, now it is 1.5km away.
Image:Wikimedia
This page describes the last 5000 years of sea-level rise and fall at Pevensey. This apparently refers to Roman Times:
“Boats would have been able to moor at Pevensey Castle, which was located on a peninsula guarding the mouth of the estuary of the Pevensey Haven. At high tide there would still be many small islands of higher ground projecting above water level and evidence of this exists in place names that have the suffix ‘ey’ or ‘eye’ – the ancient term for an island (e.g. Manxey or Horse Eye).”
The expert on sea-levels of course, is Nils Axel Morner: Are sea-levels rising? Nils-Axel Mörner documents a decided lack of rising seas
Today the Office of the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Advisory Committee in New Zealand released a new report about Climate Change.
Here is the ‘report’:
http://www.pmcsa.org.nz/wp-con…
Points about Sea Level Change in the report:
The rate of sea level rise has been increasing and is now around 3 mm/year
The sea level rise is expected to exceed the current rate of 30 mm per decade.
Overall sea level has been rising at a rate of about 3mm/year since the early 1990s and is now approximately 60mm higher than in 1993. This appears to indicate an increased rate of rise compared with earlier trends (1mm/year in the late 19th Century and close to 2 mm/year for much of the 20th Century). Thus global projections of future sea level rises have increased slightly since the last IPCC report.
New Zealand observed sea level rise is consistent with global change
And that is only the bit about sea levels.
Coincidental that this report comes out just after the Government has proposed cutting $10 million in funding for climate change research?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10895428
It’s even worse than we thought!
Send us more money!!
200
I read the article in the Herald and I thought that the aim are laudable. We do need to understand the implications of climate change – which is happening for real – but as long as they are not trying to apportion blame (to poor innocent CO2). But that isn’t going to happen.
Willie’s presentation alludes to the waste of trying to apportion blame. There is this need to have a scapegoat – instead of just looking at the trends and implications.
24
You wish.
Read the report yourself.
22 pages of waffle, low on facts, supported by questionable data and unproven (Often questionable and disputed)theories.
22 pages of “may”, “if”, “could”, “possible” “it could be even worse than we thought if…” pseudo-scientific blather.
Grant-whoring (Don’t cut the $10 million!) at its best
An assessment of current scientific reports1 on the global climate show a very high level of consistency with previous work and with the continuing scientific consensus. There is unequivocal evidence that the Earth’s climate is changing, and there is strong scientific agreement that this is predominantly as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Multiple lines of evidence continue to point to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases as the
primary driver of global climate change over the last fifty years.
625
Multiple lines of wishful thinking by Green bureaucrats
220
Yep, and nowhere in the report do they state what those “Multiple lines of evidence” are that “point to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases as the primary driver of global climate change over the last fifty years”.
If they can give evidence they should bring it up straight away.
So far nobody has come up with evidence that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the primary driver of global climate change over the last fifty years.
82
Multiple lines of evidence continue to point to …
What strange language, like lines of coke might while you kept snorting them?
At least until they pointed somewhere else.
One line would be enough, any line that provided proof.
10
Other Andy ,
Boldenning words doesn’t make them more truthful.
You twat!
10
Did you (And others) read my original comment and the first part of my second comment?
22 pages of waffle, low on facts, supported by questionable data and unproven (Often questionable and disputed) theories.
22 pages of “may”, “if”, “could”, “possible” “it could be even worse than we thought if…” pseudo-scientific blather.
Grant-whoring (Don’t cut the $10 million!) at its best
My answer to Grant’s question “but as long as they are not trying to apportion blame (to poor innocent CO2)” was “You wish”.
I highlighted those statements (from the report) to show that of course they blame CO2 for everything.
And I am glad you agree with me that the comments (from the report) I highlighted are not very truthful.
53
The climate is now starting to cool. There is virtually zero CO2-AGW, easy to prove once you discard the fake physics used in the models to purport thermageddon.
100
There are three very long tide gauge records for New Zealand, all of which show a contemporary lull in sea level rise:
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/150.php
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/259.php
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/136.php
51
Something refreshingly testy Willie neglected as a further argument is that the standard study of sea level by Church & White was updated in 2011 (Survey of Geophysics) and it finally included an actual plot not of adjusted sea level but an actual simple average of world tide gauges. It was plotted in yellow, its simplicity obscured by darker plots behind it, so I extracted it here:
http://s10.postimg.org/trnfgdcrd/Church_White_Sea_Level.gif
80
STARDATE 2313.621
SPOCK: Captain, we’ve entered the Ideology Neutral Zone.
KIRK: Thank you Mr Spock. Mr Checkov, scan the tide for signs of unusual movements, I want to know if that tide has noticed us here yet.
CHECKOV: Scanning. … No sign of unusual acceleration, Captain.
KIRK: Sulu, lower all blindfolds, cancel all biofuel boondoggles, proceed at 1 quarter climate research funding.
SULU: Yes Captain.
40
There is a short embargo on a 2013 June paper on tide gauges worldwide. It’s one of those papers that draws a line under prior speculation, uses long original records and neat maths. I’ll raise it with Jo as soon as the authors let me know it goes public.
Goodbye fairy stories, welcome real data. This paper removes uncertainties that bother many of us with this jigsaw puzzle.
20
There’s something about a normal level headed person that comes across in public speaking, hard to describe but quite a relief to the shrill fire and brimstone AGW preachers of late, very informative, very understandable, very entertaining.
Oh and you don’t feel like you’ve lost life savings or a kidney at the end of it, unlike any of the AGW cult groups that use fear and loathing to trap an audience and treat them like a commodity for the cause, instead of respecting a persons free opinion.
Of course Willie Soon is labeled a Koch bros puppet by the MSM.
200
William Sargent wrote about it in “Battle for The Mind” in the instance of how John Wesley preached to convert people.
As for the Koch brothers, as Ive said previously, they are the New Lefts contemporary equivalent of the Rothschchilds for the purpose of subliminally keeping alive their global “Zionist” conspiracy hate-meme.
70
Today, the study of comets has reached a crisis. Every key finding comes as a surprise, but no one seems to realize that the surprises are not random — they are predictable under a different perspective. The tragedy is the way inertia can leave well-intentioned scientists with their feet in the sand. The momentum of prior belief, working in concert with pressing demands of funding, creates nearly endless obstructions to open-minded exploration and discourse. Even a brief vacation from an oppressive paradigm could do wonders.
http://rense.com/general70/star.htm
Where have we heard this before?
40
Great quote: “if the sea level increases by 1mm/yr i.e 4inches/century and you don’t have the Time to move back you deserve to die”.
Well even if the sea level is 12inches per century I would still say the same holds true.
It’s time to put this financial and politically motivated corruption of science to bed.
Prosecute the climate scientists today for fraud and misappropriation of taxes!
261
When the Kaliphate comes they’ll probably end up being variously beheaded, imprisoned, shot or exiled to fugitive status for various aspects of their lifstyls having nothing to do with their Big Green but which it never occurred to them would offend that other Big Green.
Thats the tragi-comic (or Commie-tragic) way that history shows things sometimes unfold. They may wish they had devoted their time to other issues, gay rights, womens rights, etc.
Then again, I dont know how many of these scamsters live in the North of England.
51
One more thought, how long do we need to wait until a real global disaster (probably in the form of a celestial event) proves the lunacy of CO2 warming theory once and for all!
We have a comet with a 3-5 mile nucleus shedding millions of kilograms of cosmic dust every hour heading into the inner solar system soon at the rate of 30 miles per second and good scientific minds are piss farting around discussing the hypothetical dangers of a trace gas…
Ironically scientists believe that comet ISON is shedding millions of tonnes of… CO2!
Someone tell a politician! We must tax it!!!
110
Yet another buying opportunity for prime beachfront property, courtesy of an alarmist paper.
Pointman
100
Too late? Flannery and Gore have already bought.
90
Cue the trolls in 3 … … … 2 … … … 1 … … …
10
Nah, you’ll have to wait.
Our newest committed troll AAD (Michael) tends to only lurk in older threads.
The only troll to really jump into new threads is BlackDickheadthe4th who is just linking to his own propaganda channel on YouTube to increase his views. He measures success by an increasing view count.
101
“He measures success by an increasing view count”
I doubt he gets much count from this forum.
Once you see 10 seconds of any of them you realise they are a waste of time and space.
They are NOT WORTH VEIWING.
70
@Heywood
‘He measures success by an increasing view count’
No I don’t! I measure success by the amount of people that do not make valid questions about the science behind the videos! As you well know, I’ve asked you to point to any errors and it is obvious you can’t find any, because I would alter them if you could, as I have challenged you! So that’s another FAIL for you.
211
You remind me very much of a televangelist whose perpetual harangue about “sin” is an obvious and pathetic attempted coverup of a most sordid existence “when they think no one is looking.”
No one here believes for an instant that you believe any of the material that you so “graciously” share with us; you seem to be the last to recognise what is so obvious to everyone else
40
‘you seem to be the last to recognise’ and you don’t know what you are talking about! And the challenge goes out to you as well, find a valid error in any of my youtubes and I will alter them! But 1 gets you 10 you can’t!
110
Ok Blackudder, hit me with your best shot.
30
‘with your best shot’ you go and find one! Otherwise you’ll claim I’ve cherry picked one.
09
I am not going to go searching for your videos. I promise I won’t accuse you of cherry picking…. just give us all what you think is your best vid.
20
OK, here’s one, your “snowball Earth” video is wrong, that concerns the “Faint Young Sun” paradox described by Sagan and others, of a young Sun with too weak an incandescent to melt water on the Earth, yet we see signs of life having formed in surface water. Sagan ascribed this to a “methane greenhouse.”
The source of the heat was geothermal and not from the “greenhouse effect,” which is evident from the way Archean bacteria formed; the formations are consistent with heat from the bottom and not from the top. It has been stated that the heat from the original Earth formation had mostly been lost, nevertheless, the continents had not yet formed, which is a tremendous source of geothermal heat from the tectonics.
So there you go, and I don’t know why I bother, because you won’t change your attitude or even admit of the possibility of being wrong. The result of this will only be some more feet stamping about “the science”
70
‘So there you go, and I don’t know why I bother’ neither do I! Because you just saying it does not make it true! Where is your evidence?
010
This by the way was known 50 years ago, but Sagan and a chic “consensus” about the Greenhouse effect has since superseded rational academic thinking
50
Look up the formation of the Archean bacteria yourself, you nincompoop, and find out for yourself if these are consistent with the “greenhouse effect”
70
I repeat, ‘Where is your evidence?’.
010
Regrettably to your argument, the evidence I have posed is physical evidence, and not the word of “authority” of the hop-head Sagan or similar ilk.
That is the last of this discussion
90
‘That is the last of this discussion’ oh no it’s not! Why? Because I say you are running away! Chick, chick, chicken, lay a little egg for me.
‘the evidence I have posed is physical evidence’ yep just like a busted flush!
012
[SNIP]
40
[SNIP]
41
‘an excellent Nazi’ when you come out with a statement like that, I can only assume you have nothing worthwhile to say! You’ve ran up a dead end and FAILED!
[you are now entering the snip zone. That is where we moderators remove useless, offensive, antagonistic, snide, vile, stupid, boring, rude, or otherwise not conforming to our rigid set of rules. Back off or you’ll start to feel the scissors.] ED
112
I hate to admit it, but I did watch the “snowball Earth” video, at least long enough to find the error.
Alley implies that “before” the event, CO2 was low; this is not accepted within the geological community. Most of the PreCambrian atmosphere consisted of high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere; at the Ediacaran time, it was still (an estimated) 13% (reference: GTS 2004 and the updated 2012, which has a more extensive treatment of the late Proterozoic).
According to the video, “low” CO2 level ’caused’ the ice-age condition(s), and then magically, all this volcanic activity “released” large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, and viola the atmosphere warmed up.
Aside from the incorrect statements about ‘low’ CO2 levels ‘before’ the ice ages (at least three separate events, possibly more) and ‘high’ CO2 levels terminating the ice ages, volcanic activity usually causes cooling pulses in the environment, due to the high levels of aerosols. I’m sure there’s been an event in the 4.6 ga history of the Earth where volcanic activity has caused warming, but this was not one of them.
I have to agree with the mods, and the others in this discussion: your purpose is to drive views to your Facetube site and get your numbers up. Other than that, you have little to offer to any cogent discussion here.
You seek to evangelize, and not discuss in a polite and forthright manner. Jo can count me among those who see little need or purpose for your posts here.
Regards to all,
Mark H.
120
‘Alley implies that “before” the event, CO2 was low’ first error, it wasn’t Alley, rookie mistake!
‘According to the video, “low” CO2 level ’caused’ the ice-age condition(s)’ no! It was the ‘faint Sun’. Which suggests you a have either not watched or learned from the link!
‘then magically, all this volcanic activity’ so volcanic activity is MAGIC now! It must down to all those invisible fire breathing dragons I hear so much about!
‘ volcanic activity usually causes cooling pulses in the environment’ in recent time yes, but not over millions of years, with all the co2 released by the volcanoes!
‘I have to agree with the mods, and the others in this discussion: your purpose is to drive views’, well you’re wrong, again!
PS for the MODS
‘not discuss in a polite and forthright manner’ ah, so it’s OK to call me a Nazi I see, one rule for anti science blogging blockheads, but once you cross the line by posting the truth, its OK to be abusive!
18
”
Tissue for your issue? ?
From the rules,
These rules are inherently subjective, and subject to change without notice. People who don’t like that, get their own blog.
30
‘These rules are inherently subjective, and subject to change without notice’ howzat! No not out. We’ve moved the stumps, talk about moving the goal posts or what! Hahaha………..!
[Not responding to questions or responding in return when someone challenges you is also in violation of the rules. You could be considered a thread bomber. Mr. Valentine has responded challenging the information in one of your videos and you have not responded courteously. I really have never seen a troll whinge so loudly about moderation even though nothing of your posts has been snipped YET!] ED
06
B.A.4th:
I am referring to some video I watched the first part of, in your area (consisting of a number of videos, by the way) which was narrated by Alley, and discussed ‘snowball Earth’. If there is more than one, then you should specify.
In paragraph number three, the antecedent to ‘magically’ is CO2, not ‘volcanic activity’. Sorry to see such a rookie mistake. The geological record is that atmospheric CO2 concentration has been on a downward trend, measured in percents in PreCambrian time, and as ppm today. And, yes, the video distinctly makes the implication that low CO2 caused the ice age conditions (the one I watched).
There is no ‘faint sun paradox’. You were at Anthony’s when this was discussed. Non sequitur.
Here’s a challenge I regularly pose to those who believe as you do. Thus far, I have seen no results, though someone like you should be anxious to provide a response, since it should bolster your belief system.
Readily available (thanks to the Internet) is the paleotemperature record produced by Veizer. Also, Berner and Kothavala have their GEOCARB III. Take these two data sets and produce a cross-correlation coefficient for me (that would be R, and not R^2, even though both provide information). Post your results here, or Anthony’s, or someplace easily found, and let’s go from there. I’ll share my number with the world once you have shared yours. Let me know which routine you used, so we did not overlap on that (different routines should produce similar results on the same data).
I shall await your response,
Mark H.
40
‘which was narrated by Alley, and discussed ‘snowball Earth’, well that is not my what I would refer to as the “snowball Earth” video’. Because it is this one
CO2 300,000 ppm but snowball Earth
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xrm1KXttqDA
And just because somebody may in passing mention ‘snowball earth’ does not make it the subject!
‘(the one I watched)’ and which one was that?
‘There is no ‘faint sun paradox’’ oh yes there is! The solar scientist are in agreement that the Sun is getting hotter and was not able to melt a snowball Earth! Without the aid of co2!
‘Readily available (thanks to the Internet) is the paleotemperature record produced by Veizer. Also, Berner and Kothavala have their GEOCARB III.’ specific link required because I get a lot of hits and which one are you referring too?
‘Post your results here, or Anthony’s’ oh first name terms eh?
WUWT hoist by their own petard!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H9QKhIy29c
05
As far as locating the specific data sets, all you need do is google the names with the specific chart:
Veizer Paleotemperature
Berner & Kothavala GEOCARB III
Each one produces some 20,000 results, if not more. Each has been cited in the published literature multiple times, so they are vetted. Just pick one, get each data set, then run the cross-correlation. Any modern program should produce a value in a minute or two.
Since you have so many hits, it should be no problem to find these data. If you fail to provide a coefficient, I will take that as a dodge, as so many others have done (I think they did the correlation, and found out something they didn’t want to).
I could suggest the WayBac Machine also; once upon a time, there was a Wiki website called “Global Warming Art [dot com] which had a wonderful stash of data. I made the comment one day, that if the keepers of these data ever figured out that the majority of their stash contradicted the AGW/CAGW meme, they would eradicate the website. Lo and behold, about a year ago (or so) they did. Someone must have wised them up. If you know how to use WayBac, both data sets are there, and easily located. I archived the majority of what WayBac provided, just in case someone gets the idea to wipe out WayBac at some point in the future.
As far as the ‘faint sun’, solar luminosity was about 4% less some 850 ma ago, compared to today. The atmosphere was (estimated) 13% or higher CO2 concentration, which, according you your thought process, should create warm conditions. The several glacial pulses pre-Ediacaran came and went irrespective of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Then, at the Ordovician/Silurian boundary, we again saw a widespread glacial event. At that time, solar luminosity was only 2.5 – 3% less than today. Do take note of the fact that this means it had to be “warm” in between “glacials”. Temperatures went up, down, all different directions, almost as if the CO2 had no effect either way!
Of greater interest to me is your own statement, to the effect that solar luminosity has (and is) on this gradual increase. As it turns out, I agree with you; it was discussed in my Physics classes, back in the ’70’s (NINTEEN-seventies, not EIGHTEEN-seventies, as some have accused me of … …). This simple fact means that, over time, planetary temperatures should be showing some type of generalized increase, subject to random fluctuations around a variable “mean” temperature. So, what part of the “current” increase in temperatures is due to solar luminosity change(s), and how did you separate it from other stochastic effects?
(And please, do not bring up TSI; the question is in relation to million-annua time frames.)
Which one of your videos? Uhh, gee, they’re YOUR videos. It was narrated by Richard Alley, talked about ‘Snowball Earth’ in the Cryogenian; I saw the first five minutes or so (it may have been some 18 – 20 minutes in total length), so maybe you should locate it. It came from a link in a post a few weeks ago; otherwise I would not have seen it.
Not only do I not Facetube, I won’t be looking at any more of your offerings there, for the aforementioned reason.
So, when I can expect to see your correlation coefficient? Just give me some idea of when, and where, I should look. Remember, I would appreciate knowing the name of the routine you used. It is unlikely that it has a bug in it, but I’ll be happy to check the source code for you, upon request.
Regards,
Mark H.
50
‘Just pick one, get each data set, then run the cross-correlation’
‘If you fail to provide a coefficient, I will take that as a dodge, as so many others have done’, well it’s good to see you get your punch in first! And there is no wriggle room, clever! However that does not account for the fact that I am and most everybody else you have encountered at some disadvantage, if this you
http://www.caspercollege.edu/directory/hladik_mark.html
So it appears you have set a man trap [I will take that as a dodge, as so many others have done], which I am not about to step into. It’s like you throwing a ‘witch’ into a duck pond and if she floats, burn her at the stake, but if she doesn’t she’ll drown anyhow! Same result. Good try but I’m not about to play Russian roulette.
Best wishes Edmund.
‘I’m not about to play Russian roulette’, but Baldrick might if I ask him!
07
‘Tis indeed I. But as far as “disadvantaged”, the competition claims to be scientifically/mathematically astute. You yourself have cited ‘the science’ in support of your positions, any number of times. Since you have decided against running a simple cross-correlation on two data sets, then you have no interest in a key component of science. If your ‘science’ completely supports your position, then my request should bolster that same ‘science’.
You’ll also note that I do not hide behind some anonymous handle; anyone and everyone can locate, not just my place of employment (Casper College, Casper, Wyoming, United States), but the local phone directory has my landline AND my snail-mail address. Drop in sometime, we’ll have a beer or two and I can introduce you to an extensive personal library (some 40 years in the making) on a wide variety of subjects.
I have not come to my skepticism on this subject lightly. There was a post in last weekends’ “Unthreaded”, wherein a request by “Otter” elicited my #7 posting. Feel free to take a look at it.
You, on the other hand, hide behind some made-up name. Obviously, Jo has some valid e-mail address on you, but I cannot “google” your name, and find your place of employment, or anything else. What are you afraid of? Do you so despise your beliefs that you can only share them on forums like this one, hiding who you are, or what you are?
And what sane person names (him/ser) self after a snake? Looks like projection to me.
For completeness, you might as well have an abridged C.V.:
U. of Utah (2 degrees)
U. of Wyoming (1 degree);
Commercial Pilot’s license; I have 12,000 hours total time, 10,000 in multi-engine aircraft, with 2,000 hours in actual instrument meteorological conditions; no incidents, accidents, violations, or enforcements;
Founding member and past president of the Central Wyoming Astronomical Society
And currently I teach Math to students enrolled in our little community college (which is just a few hundred metres from the centerline of the 2017 total solar eclipse).
Truth is, you have no more (or less) disadvantage than anyone else. I ask a simple question: ‘What is the correlation coefficient,’ and you’re afraid to answer. Same thing happened with Mr. John Brookes (who seems to be MIA of late on Jo’s site). I think he DID do the cross-correlation, and didn’t like the result.
There’s a lot a Math involved in this whole CAGW-scam. One would be well-served to be able to mix it up with the heavy-hitters. Have you seen the chart in Jo’s handbook, by the way? Derived Mathematically, and empirically. Hard to argue with (but I’m sure you’ll try).
I will assume at this point that you have refused my challenge. So be it. You fear the truth, and lack the courage to face it.
Regards,
Mark H.
40
Hats off to you Mr. Hladik, I doubt the Adder will reveal himself. Nor does he have the necessary capacity to really defend his CAGW position. Simply, like so many parrots, reciting the mantra (or liturgy) of his Warmist faithful.
I do hope they wake up soon from the dream they share before it causes a nightmare for the rest of us.
PS I admire those willing to identify themselves. That said, I would use some caution. For myself, I don’t want to risk the loss of customers and clients in the area I try to make a living. Such can be the result of the venom and treachery of Team Warmist. I suspect you have a lower risk in the more sane Wyoming locale than me in the nearly communist Green MN.
40
Greetings to you Mr. D:
I appreciate both your words of kindness and of caution. Do be advised that I consider my “private” information to be not so private, in the internet age. Point of fact, most anyone can find out most anything about most anyone at (al)most any time. Note that Adder (or is that the mathematical operation?) located my place of employment (or at least, one of them; s/he does not know about my consulting work).
I did experience your warning, a long time ago, in another venue (which will not be mentioned here). It was a long discussion with a gang of warmistas, and when it became clear what the outcome of the discussion would eventually be, my ‘inbox’ in my personal e-mail (yes, they found that out too!) was filled with various and sundry threats.
Just FYI, my wife and I are raising our four grandchildren, and these threats included things which would be done to the other members of our household, by name.
Of course I notified the local constabulary, and they proceeded to investigate, to the limit of their ability to discern information. To this day, we have kept the various security measures recommended by our local law enforcement. Since Adder brought it up, I am on a “first name” basis with the various officers who patrol our neighborhood.
Your advice is timely, and appreciated beyond measure. Do drop in if you get the chance. My current favorite is Amber Bock, and occasionally, I switch off with Bud Light Lime.
About all a college Math professor’s budget will allow … …
Mark H.
30
[SNIP. No anonymous trolls don’t get to attack other commenters private off-line lives. -Jo]
[SNIP. Boring. Says nothing. I will snip BV -J]
‘What are you afraid of?’ well nobody on this thread and that’s a fact!
[Big words coming from a man too scared to reveal his name – J]
[Snip – j]
‘For completeness, you might as well have an abridged C.V’ Am I supposed to be impressed, no not at all! Because it is obvious that you have gone wrong somewhere.
‘There’s a lot a Math involved in this whole CAGW-scam’ don’t make me larf!
AGU, Richard Alley and climate zombies!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5sxBSa6Tck
‘Have you seen the chart in Jo’s handbook’, no and I have no intention to in the foreseeable future. Why? Because it appears she is one of ‘Lord’ Monckton’s, fans.
[Logic fail. You can’t do slur-by-association. Lift your standards. You are ‘this’ close… – Jo]
‘I will assume at this point that you have refused my challenge’, no I haven’t exactly, but I may be taking advice from a third party.
[Seems to me you posted a video. BV explained it’s flaws, in reply you have nothing at all to say to defend your video or to explain why BV was wrong. You think by demanding repeated that he needs to cite papers, you “win”. Not so. All you have done is argument by youtube. Yawn. This is not an honest conversation. – J]
‘You fear the truth’ no, no! Quite the opposite, by the way have you ever had any peer reviewed papers on the subject? [This is another repeat logic fail. argument from authority.][Snip, pointless baiting -Jo]
{Snip waffle – Jo]
PS Mark D ‘PS I admire those willing to identify themselves’ but not yourself I see? Double standards or what?
[Not at all, I know exactly who Mark D is and have contact details. – Jo]
11
Black addled says (quoting me):
What? How is that a “double standard”? You mustn’t be more than 12 years old……..
10
I’ve had more of a chance to look at the video and add some things of interest to the post. I did not know about Pevensey Castle and the change in sea levels there. Must track down some papers on it…
I’m sure if the castle was in danger of being washed away we would know all about it.
Willies view of satellite measurements at 18 mins is useful too. Single pulse resolution 1.2m? Is that right?
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The changing seashore in Southern England is due to longshore drift and nothing to do with changing sea levels. One of the most spectacular examples is Chesil Beach to the West. On other parts of the English Coast there are examples of rapid coastal erosion, such as at Lyme Regis.
Here is a recent example of a landslip in Torquay.
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The english shores have changed much in historic times. That coastal erosion is visible in a lifetime like the ww2 coastal battlements that are now 10s of metres out to see. There is also some dramatic human effects like the land reclamation all down the east coast (the Dutch wern’t the only ones).
It does go to show that a sea level reading from a static marker has little meaning on its own unless all other forces are considered.
14
sea!
21
I recall he mentioned that the error is claimed to be as small as 0.2mm.
Seems to me that in a situation where there is one moving object, the satellite, trying to measure another moving object, water, from a distance of some 1300km and over a period of 10 days to cover the oceans between latitudes 65N to 65S, there is no way such accuracy can be obtained.
Imagine trying to take a group photo of a bunch of children each holding a dog from a moving roundabout 100m away and getting them to stay perfectly still for 10 minutes.
30
Is the 0.2 mm figure put out there to show any measurements aren’t that significant to register? or are all the physical movements of the planet taken into account to calculate that 0.2 mm result.
I mean 1 mm = 39.37 thou which can be shaved off the head of an internal combustion engine to increase compression in the cylinder port, but you would be hard pressed to find anyone to physically see the 1 mm difference between two heads side by side, let alone 0.02 mm.
10
Joanne said: I’d like to know more about Pevensey Castle (7 mins). It was built in 300AD or so, and at the time was a Roman Fort.
Jo, I used to work at the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) based at Herstmonceux Castle. The castle is seven ilometers further inland from the town of Pevensey (and its port village at Pevensey Bay) that is located on the oastal road between Eastbourne and Bexhill-on-Sea(East Sussex).
The Roman town and fort of Anderida were built at the site of the modern-day village of Pevensey around 250 A.D. nd abandoned about 410 A.D. At the time it was on the tip of a peninsular that jutted out into the English Channel. The peninsular formed part of the western boundary of a large broad-mouthed shallow bay which stretched inland about 5 km) as far as Wartling, the future site of Herstmonceux Castle, and the lands to the west of modern-day own of Hailsham.
Just after the Norman invasion of 1066, castle was built just inside the walls of the Roman fort. The width of the bay’s mouth must have narrowed by this time because William-the-Conqueror and his army came a-shore at Pevensey Bay and then it was able to march to the site of the modern-day town of Battle that is located eight or nine kilometers inland from Behill-on-Sea.
In 1440, a Sussex Knight by the name of Roger Fiennes petitioned the Crown for the right to crenellate or fortify his manor of Herstmonceux. He had risen to prominence after serving Henry V at the Battle of Agincourt (1415) and
later serving as Treasurer of the Household of Henry VI. The fortified manor house became Herstmonceux castle.
We known that access to the sea via Pevensey Bay was still possible in the 1400’s since Herstmonceux Castle was built near the edge of the bay just after 1440.
Over the centuries, the bay at Pevensey slowly silted up, so that today it is low lying marshland that has been drained for farming. It is so low lying in fact, that almost every time there is a heavy fall of rain the whole area is seriously affected by flooding.
So, I would not be using this area to argue about sea level rises and falls as it has been subject to geographic factors that can affect sea-level changes.
30
Correction: I should have said “…and the lands to the east of modern-day town of Hailsham.”
Jo, you also have to take in account the fact that northern part of Britain is rising while the southern part is sinking because of the removal of the weight of glacial ice since the end of the last ice age.
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Ian, thanks, I find the history fascinating. But yes, suspected the sea-level information there was confounded by the local land movement. Appreciate your comment!
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It is not just Pevensey. Harlech castle in Wales was once nearer the sea as well:
Read more: http://wallpaperweb.org/wallpaper/known_places/harlech-castle-gwynedd-wales-united-kingdom_19530.htm#ixzz2ajVyXyJ1
30
Pom here. Your guys have at last remember they are her to play cricket 🙂
Anyway, I have read a few times that the South East corner of Great Britain has been sinking for a long time, and the North West, rising. I.E. we are slowly tipping into the sea. Certainly there has been for a very long time severe erosion along the English coast from Pevensey way up to The Wash. Faversham, now inland, in Kent, near Canterbury, was one of the original Cinque Ports. There are drowned villages along the Norfolk coast.
Harlech’s not that far from the sea – there is however a low-lying patch of land in between it and the sea. I’s hazard dune erosion &/or movement as the main reason for that.
Interesting article.
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The Water Gate (sometimes called Traitors Gate) in the Tower of London has been there since 1285. Despite the slow sinking of the SE of England and all those rising sea levels, it is still not submerged. Far from it.
Some might point out that the Thames used to be nearly twice as wide as at present, but that is mainly because it is now been enclosed by raised banks. Any claim that the flow rate has dropped is meaningless without measurements.
All this shows that measuring any rise in the sea level is rather difficult, just ask King Canute (or Knut in Danish). Perhaps we should call these alarmists knuts, or similar.
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‘All this shows that measuring any rise in the sea level is rather difficult’ so why did they install The Thames Barrier in the 80’s and are now making plans to upgrade it, as I heard not so long ago in the media?
010
The Thames barrier was installed to cope with storm surges from the North Sea and aluvial flooding, not due to any fear of rising sea levels.
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‘The Thames barrier was installed to cope with storm surges’ because of rising sea levels and the ‘sinking’ of the south. But why are they planning an addition to the barrier about 30 years later? It wouldn’t be because of the realization that AGW has now to be taken into consideration?
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“The Environment Agency responded that it does not plan to replace the Thames Barrier before 2070, as the barrier was designed with an allowance for sea level rise of 8mm per year until 2030, which has not been realised in the intervening years“
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Are you saying that we get storm surges because of rising sea levels???. We get storm surges from storms, dipshit.
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Not unless they do things with no evidence for doing so.
Ms Editor, how much free pass does he get? No one here scrawled graffiti all over his You tube sites, and that pretty much has been his contribution here.
[He’s burnt up most of his free passes. I’m thinking about going back and replacing all of his video links with skeptical video links just to mess with him. Maybe we should ask for links from the regulars here to substitute for his? I’d be happy to “edit” his posts and include rebuttals.] ED
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+1. BlackDickheadThe4th is merely spamming and promoting his own YouTube channel.
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In the Real BlackAdder, the Prince calls BA, “Bladders”
So what we have here is an empty Bladders.
Balrick is starting to look VERY, VERY INTELLEGENT compared to this one.
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I mean, really, you are such a blatant tosser troll. Really, just f*ck off back to realclimate where your stupidity will be lauded. Also. note that your cretinous spamming is tolerated here. I’ve posted carefully relevant comments on the Guardian and SkepticalScience which have been immediately deleted, Think on that, oh nimble “environmentalist” thinker.
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What about Kawajar…the Paki we have he missed that ball by miles..the umps are on the take.
Cheers
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Crakar if you come to UK I advise you dont say that “P” word in public…crikey, Australia really IS a different country.
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Thats why they gave him out Ace.
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Well Ace what do you call them over there, Englishmen?
33
The official misnomer is “Asians”.
I dont know what actual Asians think about that, but they dont seem to rank so high in the PC pecking order that their opinion would count.
30
Ace,
Pakistan is geographically located in an area called “the Middle east”, i believe a Paki would be more incensed by being called an “Asian” than anything else maybe thats where the problems started 🙂
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Haha. Actually its South-West Asia or Central Asia, Im not sure which now. But WE (anyone living in the UK ) are basically FORBIDDEN to use the term “Pakistani” let alone “Paki”. I recently QUOTED the term (as something said by others) on an Anglophone web-site (US based but with millions of UK mmbers) and even for that came in for passive-aggressive opprobrium. To actually say it in public will get you shedloads of ostracism and to repeatedly say it in publlic will sooner or later get you arrested on the charge of “incitemnt to racial hatred”. I do like to dramatise things BUT, I assure you that is quite true.
The werboten status of the P word I think is in order to prevent the simple distinction between those immigrants and new-British from there and their brothers from India. Th two communities are most definitely not the same in spite of their shared heritage. Since Pakistani independence and especially since Zia Al Huq tilted them into zealotry, they have as we all know become nuclear enemies of each other. More to the point, the Pakistani and Indian communities exhibit very different conduct towards other communities in the UK. You can be sure my comments on here (as someone posting from a UK IP) are sooner or later vetted by the UK “security” apparatus, like those of everyone else. I cannot even write freely and explicitly without fear of a knock on my door because I make a comment than can be twisted to mean something racist. The two communities ar very definitely not th same and it serves the interests of authority…in their misguided attempt to “keep a lid on things” …to enforce a removal of the distinction by censoring the language available to make such a distinction. By enforcing “Asian” as an umbrella term, they essentially seek to inhibit discussion of whats really happening in UK society.
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Ace the Australian language has come under fire from the PC loons for some time now, what non Australian’s don’t understand is our abbreviation’s of any word is done to suit our style of slang mostly with no malice.
A while back there was a to do over a KFC TV ad that had a lone Aussie surrounded by West Indies (Windies) supporters at the cricket and he hands out chicken to make friends, now this was slammed as racist worldwide and on “The View” US the only person to defend Australian’s was Whoppie Goldberg who correctly stated most Aussies wouldn’t know about the fried chicken/ African American slur in the USA, this is our shameful past not theirs.
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But of course it could also be interpreted as a gag at the supposed naievete of Australians.
Watch out for the water melon trap as well.
I guess the P word is equivalent to the N word in the USA. In both cases, those so dubbed are not only entitled to use it for thmselvs but have embraced it as a declaration of identity. Homosexuals nowadays often ditch the term “gay” and embrace the word “queer”. In social psychology (were back onto Lewandowski it seems) there is even a field known as queering or queer-studies.
10
I had a snip on ‘The Conversation’ blog for telling a true story in a thread about aborigines and spatial awareness. The mistake the mods made was failure to realise that the guy in the story was a Brit – another example of a bum referee?
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PC is generall for minorities.
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Eddie…where do you get that idea? PC has a status list for importance of a minority, top of which are Muslims. That is why the effort has been put into place to re-brand Pakistanis as “Asians”, because Pakistanis are Muslim and its a way of shuffling the pack so that card is hidden among all the other minority suites. There is immense “sensitivity” about Muslim feeling and pretty much squat towards anybody else. For example, there has been a Jewish community in the UK for centuries. Nobody worried about offending them with porcine particulars. However, in the last twenty years anything related to pork has ben scrupulously expunged from public life, for fear of offending Muslims. For example, the celebrated case of the Piglet mug removed from Loughborough council offices. The guy who was threatened with prison because he named his car park the Pork Yard and two Somali asylum seekers complained it offended them. Nearly all meat sold in UK supermarkets is now (nominally) Halal. So if all minorities receive equal treatment how come it wasnt already all mad kosher? All UK citizens know that Islamic mores trump all other considerations.
We never hear a peep as to how actual Asians feel about anything. In fact, even the media dont care about including genuinely offensive parodies of Chinese people in their shows. Notably the fat-arsed eco-Jerk Marcus Brigstock with slitty-eye make up parodying a Kung Fu dance. Would we see him black up as a minstrel? Would he dare do a skit on Osama Bin Laden or any everyday sheikh?
Obviously not. But If you are either Jewish or Chiness, Japanese or just about anything else part from Muslim, then “sensitivity” doesn’t apply.
That is the reality pf PC in modern Britain.
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I agree it’s a serious misnomer, but a historical one which could well be corrected.
Pakistan was an acronym derived from Punjab, Afghania, Kashmir and Indus-Kush. Apparently “paki” felicitously means something like happy, or fortunate in Urdu.
But what about Waziristan? Aorta change it to recognise the other major region. Pawkistan has a nice ring to it, and we can refer to the folx from there as Pawkis.
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I didnt know that. Fascinating. But I dont think “Pakistani” is a misnomer, its the actually word for someone from a country still called Pakistan. I would accept that shortening it to “Paki” is possibly offensive in itself, but mainly its a lag over from the days of the racist National Front, which as far as I know, hasnt existed for years. The problem is, in the UK “Pakistani” is not an allowed distinction either, except in very precise official usage. You are expctd to say “Asian” for everyone from the entire sub-continent. But, paradoxically, not for actual Asians. Which makes for difficulties as it means distinctions and precise discussion become impossible. This is absolutely and precisely what George Orwell anticipated with “New Speak”.
10
Sounds like Tony Greig.
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“I corn believe it”
RIP Tony Greig.
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Nils suggests Michael Tooley is worth reading. Certainly one of his papers (from long ago) talks of how difficult it is to dissect sea-level rise.
The pattern is of uplift in the North West and subsidence in the South East. See this Tooley and Switsur paper.
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The safest place to live in Britain is on the North West coast, so that when the country lips over you can run around to the other side.
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FLIPS over.
(Note to self: Edit! Edit! Edit!)
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Th safest place to live in Britain is not to…
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Nooooo. I live in a lovely corner of England which is safe as houses — unless you count the danger of encountering a drunken vicar swerving in front of you on the way home. I’m by no means the one percent. I am, though, perhaps in the 25% who live in rural idylls. 🙂
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Sounds like you live in the kind of place townsters pay a visit to as uninvited and unwelcome, occasionally homicidal, house-guests quite frequently.
But there are dangers other than criminals. Aside from dying of boredom which it sounds like I would round your manor I am more afraid of the rising tide of intolerance and bigotry around these shores.
As a guy who not only views but produces porn I dont appreciate the Prime Minister and a chorus of arseholes more or less casting me and mine as the new untermensch of this society.
Basically its the English themselves that are the worst thing about England. Hopefully I will be able to escape before they open holiday camps for the likes of us scapegoats. How I loathe England.
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…revise that…SOUTHERN England. I dont know the rest, Northerners seem a much better bunch.
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What you really need to consider is that if all the ice on the entire planet melted it wouldnt dent human affairs one fraction that the damage inflicted by attempts to curb industrial society already has. Our ancstors survived the melting of ice-sheets several MILES thick. You can find remains of their settlemnts all over the bed of the North Sea. In that period, th shoreline moved inland several metres PER WEEK. Their only technology was flint chipping. But did it extinguish their culture? Did it feck!
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…and dont forget the thriving-on of Water World!
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
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YeHEeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE ah!
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“But did it extinguish their culture? Did it feck!”
When a culture consists of bashing rocks together, it’s pretty difficult to extinguish it. You have to take all the rocks away.
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I think you vastly under-estimate those people. The evidnce is they were on more intelligent (in the broad sense) than most of the box-watchers that pad out Western society today. To erect thousands of monuments like Avebury, Carnac or Stonehnge (albeit on a smaller scale) across Europe (albeit also somewhat later) with just those rocks and timber and muscle and….brain power, would, I think, defy the wits of most people alive today.
Howver, you miss the point, they survived and they flourished, and “they” eventually landed men on the moon. A few hundred feet of poxy water here and there made no difference.
Now the Greenies want us to worry over a few millimetres.
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I have no doubts about their intelligence. But a rock-bashing culture isn’t easy to eradicate. I’m pretty sure a Facebook based culture is much more fragile.
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I think a great many people would draw hope from that.
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…but in fact our nore robust institutions have been dug in to survive total nuclear war for several decades now.
00
Jo a good site for more information about the Pevensey levels is here http://www.pevensey-bay.co.uk/pevensey-levels.html
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Soon neglected to discuss the uncertainties in the tides, which result in a large variation across any coast region due to the variation in water depth. Extrapolation of “sea level rise” across some continental coast is quite meaningless.
Anyway I don’t like to hear him repeat the dirt that other people say about him, he’s got to ignore it, I do, at least I wouldn’t make a point about it in public.
20
Pevensey Castle is a bit of a puzzle, as the SE of England is sinking.
The glaciers never reached this far south, so there is no isostatic rebound.
I think we may need some Mannian maths to sort this one out.
Of course, the stories about the castle being a port could be a fabrication of the facts – just like so much of what is called ‘climate science’ today.
10
Of course we mustn’t forget Professor Soons greatest achivment, he built Data!!!!!
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…I dont think there are many Trekkies here somehow.
00
.
One doesn’t need to go back nearly a thousand years to find examples of dramatic coastline change. I’ve posted this before, but here is a story of an archeological dig for some American whalers shipwrecked at Bunbury in the SE of WA, in the early 1800’s.
They were originally wrecked on the beach, at sea level, but, as can clearly be seen, they are now buried several hundred metres from the coast, in ground which is now several metres above what would have been the “beach” at the time.
Now I appreciate these ships were buried by shifting sands, and it has nothing to do with either sea level rise, or fall. But, given the dramatic and dynamic change in the coastline, how could anybody claim to able to measure sea level rise (or fall) in the area, to an accuracy of mere millimetres?
And yet, here we have just such a claim, made originally by the BoM, and repeated ad nauseum on a Labor Party website.
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I went to school in Faversham in the South East of England and I always found it odd this idea expressed with great authority that the South East is sinking as Wales is rising due to rebound from the loss of glaciers. The fact is Faversham is now several miles from the sea and there are remains of medieval and possibly Roman quays now in sheep fields. Sandwich, once a port, is now inland. The ‘Isle of Thanet’ is now an isle in name only – the Wantsome Channel separating it from the rest of Kent that was navigable in Roman and medieval times is now a not very impressive ditch. Yes land can build up, channels can silt up etc, but if this area is sinking and the sea level is rising, you would have thought we would have seen just a little more evidence of it on the ground. In other words not the precise opposite of what we can see with our own eyes!
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OT but maybe we can continue on the next unthreaded. I watched the Dick Smith energy special last night. He was having a nice time flying around in his aerial toys and came to the conclusion we could continue to burn coal and oil if we weren’t worried about CO2, go nuke in a big way (at some increased cost – which I would dispute) or go 100% renewable (wind and solar) which would be very much more expensive. I don’t think many here would think the last would even work at any cost.
30
Pevensey Castle started out as a Saxon Shore Fort in Roman times, so it will have been coastal then. Some of the masonry surviving is Roman. The fact that William of Normandy occupied the place and turned it into a castle suggests it was at least close to the shore in 1066, as well. The Normans couldn’t walk a hundred yards without building at least one castle. Another place in Sussex which is further from the sea than it used to be is Winchelsea, which was certainly a port in the fourteenth century, when it was sacked by the French (them, again). Nowadays, the old town is about a thousand yards from the sea. I think that that is due to silting and that that accounts for the Pevensey case, too.
Incidentally, there are two Martello Towers marked in the vicinity of Pevensey on the Ordnance Survey map. These were built in the 1800s, to see off Napoleon Bonaparte, and they are both much closer to the sea than the Roman fort. The map can be seen here:
http://www.english-heritage.org.uk/daysout/properties/pevensey-castle/directions .
20
Pevensey Castle is heavily haunted too. (Not that many old castles aren’t.) Maybe the ghosts affect the sea level.
20
Cue the ghost denying trolls
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That was funny, Gee.
Thumbs up.
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Yes, your best work so far.
20
Not as bad as the Norfolk (I think) village of Dunwich…thats totally submergd off the coast…and it has a HORROR!!!!
00
…at least, acording to H.P.Lovecraft, but he thought it was in America, so much for his local Knollidge 🙂
00
Pevensey, Harlach – you will find them all over the UK. For another to make you think, check out Glastonbury, around 15 kilometres from the sea, but it was a Port at the time of Jesus and longer.
20
Glastonbury is in the Somerset Levels, which are areas of mainly arable land, very close to sea-level (I think below sea-level, in places) reclaimed from marshland. The Levels, and Glastonbury in particular, are the sites of important prehistoric archaeological finds. The inhabitants built wooden walkways, to enable them to cross the treacherous marshland in relative safety, presumably. At Glastonbury Mere, Bronze Age houses were built on stilts. Athelney was the hideout in dense marsh, in the same area, where Alfred hid from the Vikings (and, supposedly, where he burnt those cakes).
In 1685, the course of the Battle of Sedgemoor, fought at Westonzoyland, was, I believe, affected by the presence of ditches intended to assist the drainage of the terrain.
I’m pretty sure that both Glastonbury and Sedgemoor ought to be underwater by now, according to Gloomist predictions, but, the last I heard, they were remaining buoyant.
50
There are numerous good scientific papers on the historic coastal geology/stratigraphy of G.B. and neighbouring countries that use more reference points than old buildings. It’s a large corpus. Do go for the formal lit rather than semi-pop.
11
Why don’t you summarise the “formal lit” for me? Start by explaining why Sedgemoor is still above water.
My comments about the Somerset Levels were, pretty clearly, not confined to “old buildings”, although I understand why you fraudulent Gloomists are uncomfortable, when dealing with historical reality.
00
And what the heck has “stratigraphy” got to do with this? Stratigraphy is a geological process, taking millions of years. That has nothing to do with the phenomenon to which I referred. The coastal change here, as Willie Soon has emphasized, is nothing to do with geology.
00
Owen, stratigraphic geological processes are happening while we write and read here. The change per second might be small, but the fact is correct.
My mention of the formal literature was to encourage people to self-educate with high quality sources, because they are abundant. Unfortunately, so are some rubbish sources as Soon shows.
Geology is involved in many processes that are not immediately recognised. (Listen to Soon at 5.30 mins in.)However, geologists looking for links to other processes are still jealous of the record to the CAGW people, who seem to be able to find a relation between global warming and all sorts of things. Try here –
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
I regret that it would take pages and months of work to give an accurate article to explain why Sedgemoor is still above water. Perhaps as a first guess, the simple model of the British Isles tilting on removal of past ice load is too simple. Over the size scale of GB, rocks are quite elastic and one cannot presume the changes to be similar to an inflexible tilting. They fold, cause domes and so on. Second, it’s becoming more apparent as research progresses, that water ‘does not find its own level’ in the sense that you’d be left with a perfect sphere of water if you conceptually removed the land. There are depressions and peaks, some slow- moving, some almost permanent such as those over strong gravity anomalies in old rocks. Try a mental picture of walking on a water bed. You press down at one place, it does up an another.
You could start with a simple book and work up to more detail as I had to do over the years. e.g.http://www.amazon.com/Wellss-First-Principles-Geology-Text-Book/dp/B008G89LR6
00
Weird, isn’t i: how Geoff Sherrington suddenly regards human activity as irrelevant? What was that thing about “man-made global warming”, again?
00
Where did I say human activity was irrelevant? Clearly, it is.
I’m reminded of the heckler at a political meeting who kept chanting to Gough “What about abortion?” After quite a time of this Gough replied “Abortion? I wish it could be made retrospective.”
00
Abortion? Well, at least we have good reason to ignore the warmists’ cries of “think of future generations”…. they do not have any rights, do they? So why should we worry about them at all?
00
Check also the BBC’s Coast. They showed remnants of drowned forests and former, now flooded Villages in the English Channel,as well as off the Welsh coast.
30
The East Coast of England is sinking and subject to severe coastal erosion. That’s why there are “lost” villages offshore (in the North Sea, BTW not the Channel). Kent and Sussex are interesting because they aren’t (as someone else here commented) subject to isostatic rebound since the last glaciation ended north of London.
Places that were previously ports or coastal sites ending up far inland may not be due to sea-level changes but to silting (e.g. Rye in Kent).
But there are historical indicators. Claudius landed in AD 43 with a large fleet in the natural harbour of Richborough (which apparently wasn’t there one hundred years earlier when Caesar tried). Richborough is now several miles inland and above sea level.
One of the troubles for those scientists who constantly “recalibrate” raw historical data is that there’s increasingly a dissonance between what their data show and the contemporaneous record. Steven (Mr Angry) Goddard’s blog highlights this rather well from time to time.
30
Another castle (on the West coat) in Wales, Harlech castle has a stairway leading down to the sea from where it could be re-supplied when under siege.
A reconstruction of ehat it looked like:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/Reconstruction_of_Harlech_Castle.jpg/800px-Reconstruction_of_Harlech_Castle.jpg
and here is a photo of where the sea is now, taken when I last visited a few years ago:
http://vogon.net/UK/Images/DSC_0050-18.jpg
30
There’s another way of checking it (SLR), because if the radius of the Earth increases, be- cause sea level is rising, then immediately the Earth’s rate of rotation would slow down.
That is a physical law, right?
You have it in figure-skating: when they rotate very fast, the arms are close to the body; and then when they increase the radi- us, by putting out their arms, they stop by themselves.
Interview: Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner 2007
Claim That Sea Level Is Rising Is a Total Fraud
20
And so it is!
“Earth’s rotation is slowing at a rate of approximately 17 milliseconds a century, and the length of a day for the dinosaurs was closer to 22 hours.” (en.wikipedia.org)
“The gravitational torque between the Moon and the tidal bulge of the Earth causes the Moon to be constantly promoted to a slightly higher orbit and the Earth to be decelerated in its rotation.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_acceleration
The question remains, is the putative change of global mean sea level (about as useful as global mean temperature – no range or standard deviation quoted with the mean value) measurable through the conservation of angular momentum of the planet.
My guess is that any change of this order of magnitude falls well within the error of measurement into a potential zone of wishful thinking.
10
I should also add, that given IPCC projections of mean sea level rises of the order of magnitude of meters within a century, it would seem more plausible that such a significant change in a short time would be correlated to a proportional change (reduction) in angular velocity and therefore day lengthening.
But isn’t this an increasingly vacuous discussion as the value for climate sensitivity declines and “The Inconvient Pause” continues?
10
So it is true! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W4_mUBWxwU
00
Ummmm, in a big while crocodile.
00
The Moon has a profound effect on earth’s climate as Wilson and Sidorenkov show.
00
Oh no,
Looks like AAD and BAT4TH might have to find a new authoritive figure, might i suggest you go here and pick one.
http://www.sacred-texts.com/world.htm
As you current one seems to be abandoning you
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/ipcc_finally_starts_to_cool_down/
32
lol. Glad it is catching on.
20
Thank you Jo and friends for a bit of edification.
20
If you visit Ostia Antica or Ephesus you will notice the same circumstances as Pevensey Castle. The sea level is below these one-time ports. At the time I visited I assumed that it was river silting, but now I realise that silting could not have accounted for the level difference.
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2 Aug: ABC: Leaked Climate Change Authority report calls on Australia to triple 2020 carbon emissions cuts target
A leaked report to the Government from the independent Climate Change Authority says Australia should aim to cut emissions by 15 per cent of 2000 levels by 2020…
The report says the cuts should ramp up to 40 per cent cut by 2030, and 90 per cent by 2050.
The Gillard government set a 2050 target of 80 per cent…
The report was obtained by the ABC’s Radio National Breakfast, and is due to be handed to the Government in October…
(Associate director of the Australian National University’s Climate Law and Policy Centre, Andrew McIntosh): “Economy-wide, an increase from 5 per cent to 15 per cent will result in only a marginal increase in the economic cost,” he said.
“If you go to 40 per cent it will be significantly more, but not the sort of thing that’s crushing, and we could do it without suffering a major loss in GDP growth and the other major macro-economic indicators.”…
Mr McIntosh says if the world wants to aim to limit average temperature increases to just two degrees Celsius, governments will have to agree limit output of carbon to 300 billion tonnes over the next 90 years.
“Think of that as a big carbon cake,” he said. “Every person on the earth should get an equal slice of that.”…
Editor’s note August 2, 2013: Earlier versions of this story incorrectly said the recommendation had come from the Climate Commission.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-02/climate-change-authority-wants-increase-in-carbon-target/4860276
not so fast, ABC:
2 Aug: AFR: Climate authority push for 15pc carbon cut
***On Thursday, the authority declined to comment on its likely recommendations.
“The authority is still undertaking detailed analysis for the Caps and Targets Review and no decisions have been taken at this time,” an authority spokeswoman said.
“The authority intends to release a draft report later this year to consult with the public before finalising its recommendations.”…
Any proposed increase would be likely to ***split business groups and companies. The Business Council of Australia and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry are opposed to an increase.
WWF climate change policy director Will McGoldrick said recent modelling by Vivid Economics and Monash University showed moving from a 5 per cent to a 25 per cent target would shave just 0.01 per cent off Australia’s economic growth in 2020, equivalent to just two months of growth…
http://www.afr.com/p/national/climate_authority_push_for_pc_carbon_kyQOt4vHx4K3c7FQ1tr8zJ
***split? sounds like business is of one voice!
Fran Kelly used Climate Commission/officialy advised etc throughout:
AUDIO: 2 Aug: ABC Breakfast: Cut carbon pollution 15% by 2020
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/cut-carbon-pollution-15-by-2020/4860260
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I did read that the site of Leonidas and the three hundred’s last stand at Thermopylae is well inland now.
“Were you at Thermopylae when Persia crossed the sea, did you lay your bones between your homes and the spears of the enemy?” Mike Flynn via his character Styx in the Firestar quadrilogy.
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At Thermopylae is a monument to the 300 Spartans with a famous warrior epitaph that can be translated as.
“Go tell the Spartans, stranger passing by, that here, obedient to their laws, we lie.”
This battle is said to be a major driving force to uphold the values of freedom and democracy in Ancient Greece.
Truly inspiring and stirring actions.
20
During the third Sacred War, Philip turned his eye toward Sparta. In 346 B.C., he sent a message to the Spartans:
“You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army on your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people and raze your city.”
The Spartans answered “If.”
I am yet to see the movie 300. However showing my age I did see the earlier movie the 300 Spartans as a Saturday Matinee feature, at Hoyts Islington, a suburb of Newcastle, when Hoyts had cinima’s in every second suburb and TV was still in nappies. Not a bad b grade movie of it’s time.
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The 300 Spartans released 1962 yep you’re showing your age. 🙂
That movie is more historically correct than 300 but the later version has pretty good effects.
I saw 300 at the cinema and was surprised to see many people crying at the ending.
10
I’ve been to the modern monument at Thermopylae and I promise you that you can’t see the sea from there.
10
Al Gore’s new doco/mini series is about to be aired here in Australia, it looks pretty good its about what will happen to the world when we shut down all the coal fired power stations and we rely totally on renewables.
There is a sub plot showing the really really evil deniers attempts to restore the coal fire power with the info contained on a USB and therefore world domination but the warbots are trying to stop them.
Raed it all here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_(TV_series)
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1 Aug: UK Daily Mail: Nick McDermott/Chris Brooke:
£1 billion wind farm that’s snubbed British workers: Jobs row erupts as Clegg opens offshore complex built and maintained by foreigners
Deputy Prime Minister claimed 30,000 British jobs would be created by the end of the decade by investing in renewable energy
But local MPs and businessmen said this appeared a hollow promise.
Because turbines for the Centrica scheme off Skegness are made in Denmark, Danish and Swedish workers are being drafted in daily to work on them.
Scandinavian Airlines will even begin a six-days-a-week service between Copenhagen and Humberside Airport in October to keep up with demand.
The whole construction of the wind farm was largely foreign, with a French company making the cabling in Germany and Norway and the foundations being manufactured in Holland…
Generous taxpayer-funded subsidies for wind farms are set to continue until the end of the decade, but foreign energy firms want a longer-term commitment.
Proposals for a new Siemens wind turbine factory in Hull were given planning permission in May last year.
But the German firm wants more concrete promises before it goes ahead with the £80million factory, which would create 700 direct jobs and thousands in the supply chain.
Ministers have promised guaranteed prices – fixed at up to triple the market rate – for electricity from offshore wind until 2019.
They say the financial incentive will make Britain an attractive place to invest and transform our energy supply, but the difference between the wholesale price and the agreed rate will have to be met by consumers…
Councils across the UK have spent more than £7.2million on charging points for electric cars over the past three years yet many are not being used.
One in six councils had at least one point not used at all over the past year, and less than a third of authorities had a charging point being used on average more than once a week, figures obtained by the BBC revealed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2382898/1-billion-wind-farm-thats-snubbed-British-workers-Jobs-row-erupts-Clegg-opens-offshore-complex-built-maintained-foreigners.html
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If you really want to blow your budget, invest in wind farms.
Germany’s Chancelloress Merkel has cancelled her appointment to “launch” a new offshore wind farm.
Germany’s Spiegel magazine reports:
Never mind. Gaia will be pleased as long as the edifices are turning.
30
A mate of mine watched the dick smith $10 a litre propaganda film last night, apparently Dick was honest and said up front he would use more fossil fuel than most people (or words to that effect) and then went on to show just how wonderful life could be without fossils (whilst he pumped AVTUR into his private plane).
I suggested to my mate the title of the doco should have been “YOU MUST USE LESS SO I CAN USE MORE”, might try and you tube it tonight.
105
The really big current event is this
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi_ice_area.png If this continues it really is the end for the team. There will be immense pressure to fraudently change the data and graphs. This is their golden icon. Its confirmed with the DMI graph. Arctic sea ice melt may in fact be reaching a minimum. Fortunately the Scandinavians are not as corrupt as USA European AGW TEAM members, so maybe the data will stand. Antarctic ice extent is at a record extent continuously and significantly for years now
82
“This is their golden icon.”
Like the hotspot?
The hotspot isn’t mentioned anymore
Like the correlation between CO2 and temperature?
The heat is now hiding under 2000 meters.
They are now quoting a 2009 journal article (Easterling D.R. Wehner M.F. 2009. Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L08706) that (according to them) proves that the ‘climate models’ predicted that the temperature can stall or go down for years or even decades.
Nah, it is a cult.
I will survive for years to come.
They will come up with something, a paper that proves that it has ‘always been known’ that there would be pauses (and recoveries) in the Arctic melts.
There is just too much money involved inn CAGW and ‘powerful’ people have staked their reputation on it.
Unless the climate cools drastically in the next few year.
Oh wait, they will probably blame CO2 and global warming for that as well.
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They’re way beyond ‘global’ anything.
‘Climate change’ has hitherto been an axiomatic term. Now it has been irretrievably hijacked by The Inconvenient Brother and Sisterhood and has become a PC term, implying anthropogenic wreckers.
But I think they’ll really struggle in the face of prolonged cooling. In fact, they’ll be more of a laughing stock than they already are.
20
At this time of year the ice pack isn’t solid, it is just a bunch of big chunks of ice floating around together and churning up against each other. The ice area at this time is strongly influenced by the wind which can drive the chunks together and shrink the total area or spread them apart and increase it. Looks like there has been a bit of spreading going on recently. However I don’t think we’ve hit the minimum quite yet – it would be the earliest minimum on record if it were. I would expect that line to wiggle itself a bit lower over the next few weeks. How low it goes is going to depend on the weather. One big storm like we had last year is all it would take to compact the ice together and drive the ice area right down.
While it would be pleasant to see the catastrophists discomforted by an increased ice extent, I’m really not unhappy to see less ice up there in summer. Too much ice in that part of the world hanging around from one season to the next is the trigger for ice age. Less pressure that trigger has got to be a good thing.
20
Off topic; but just to show how ‘scientific facts’ can be misreported or exaggerated by the media…
(*Carrington class storm is like the one in 1859 which literally almost destroyed telegraph systems. It is thought these occur only every 500 years.)
30
Search Amazon for “A Distant Eden” by Lloyd Tackitt. An interesting take on the aftermath of a Carrington event.
10
One of the many REAL natural catastrophes we SHOULD be planning for. Millions will likely die.
10
Harlech Castle in North Wales was on the coast when built by Edward 1 but is now several miles from the coast.
There are so many quays around the Med. only inches above high water and they have been there since Roman times.
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OFF TOPIC
Interesting report on the 7:30 WA programme this evening talking to veteran reporter and author Bret Christian about his new book that questions the operation of the justice system.
Listening from 4:40 time marker:
(emphasis mine)
You heard it on your ABC.
The whole programme segment is worth watching because it illustrates ferpectly how no new evidence changed the investigator’s initial gut feelings.
Does that sound far too familiar?
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Yep, I hear ya. That’s the problem with these randomly selected juries of peers. Juries represent a majority opinion on principles and values and can’t be intentionally corrupted by technocrats before the trial. I mean what the hell, right? What is this, 1554? Juries are just so uncool now. The Powers That Be can’t run a tyrannical one world government with one hand tied behind their back. Probably they will try to restrict the right to a jury trial in some key cases and then in successively broader conditions, until eventually only jaywalking merits a jury.
If Star Chambers and Secret Police were good enough for King Charles 1st and the Nazis, well by crikey they’re good enough for us!
😉
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Did you view the video?
The problem that Bret Christian discusses was that the jury of “peers” seldom has the necessary insight to work out if the experts are talking up the reliability of evidence, etc. It is impossible for juries to arrive at a conclusion based on the evidence if they do not understand the evidence and its veracity. They implicitly take the experts’ views as authoritative.
Jury members aren’t supposed to do their own research; something that could help them to understand the weight of evidence given. I doubt that if a jury member were skilled in the art, that they would be permitted to “educate” the rest of the jury as that entails the risk of imprinting that expert’s opinion on other jury members.
Instead, it is assumed that the evidence by itself will be sufficient. Which may have been appropriate when the detail of evidence was “self evident”, but evidence presented is often beyond the ability to interpret for non-experts.
Don’t for one second believe that the lawyers will have sufficient understanding of technical aspects of forensic evidence to formulate questions to expose the degree of uncertainty harboured by the experts.
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The castle appears in Rudyard Kipling’s story of … hmm.. The Knights of the Joyous Adventure. The eponymous knights suspend a traitorous fellow in a well in the wall, where he nearly drowns when the tide comes in.
I thought you might like to know that.
JF
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The South Downs of England are currently sinking under the weight of Anti-Fracking Protestors.
A view from the North Bolton News, which Lord Howell a onetime Energy Minister from Thatcher times, described as ideal for Fracking
‘
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I can only assume that climate scientists have discovered the Warm List and have interpreted it as an instruction manual.
Rise in violence ‘linked to climate change’
It just washes over me now. The warmist insanity doesn’t even surprise any more. But wait! What’s this?? A COUNTERPOINT?!!
Of all the lamestream media even the freakin’ Beeb is publishing caveats, cautions, and counterarguments to Warmageddon.
The tide has truly turned… and now we’re back on topic. 🙂
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#climateViolence, or, as we used to say in the age of typewriters, Re: Climate and Violence. Mr Angry, AKA Steven Goddard has pointed out that both of the most destructive wars in modern times (ie WWI and WWII) occurred during relative cold snaps in the post little ice age warning.
When I was studying statistics at University we had two exercises which were designed to educate us as to the limitations of human perception and statistical abuse. One demonstrated that football pool results were effectively random, the second demonstrated that, in English villages, churches cause pubs — with extraordinarily robust skill.
I wish this generation of climate activist “scientific” headline-hunters would learn that “global warming causes violence” is about as egregious as what I learnt as an undergraduate as an excellent example of misused statistics.
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Well, I most certainly get the urge to thump some of these warmists…. so it must be true!
10
Harlech Castle which was built on the West Coast of Wales in the late 13th century was originally by the sea, but is now about a mile in-land.
From the Wiki article here;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harlech_Castle
“In the 13th century, the sea came up close to the stairway, allowing resupply by sea, but today the sea has retreated significantly, making it more difficult to envisage the concept in its original setting.”
In the photo you can see the cliff at the base of the castle on the left (the Western side) where the sea originally came up to.
Whether the sea has retreated because of sea level falling or whether it is due to coastal erosion deposits I’m not sure.
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1 Aug: Tampa Bay Times, Florida: Robert Trigaux: Thank you, Tallahassee, for making us pay so much for nothing
Hey, elected clowns! Thanks for passing a law forcing Duke Energy customers to pay up to $1.5 billion in higher rates for a long proposed nuclear power plant in Levy County that will not be built.
And no, Florida customers, you’re not getting any of that money back.
The good news is that on Thursday Duke Energy finally ended the charade that Levy would ever open. The meter has finally stopped, though customers will be paying down the tab for years.
With the Levy project canceled, and the broken Crystal River plant now permanently closed, Duke appears to be exiting the nuclear power business in Florida. At least for the foreseeable future…
Too bad we can’t shut down Florida legislators just as easily. Especially those lawmakers who conjured up the 2006 law letting power companies charge advance fees to rate payers for high-priced and, yes, even ill-considered nuclear power projects.
Anti-capitalist from the get-go, the law also allows the same power companies to profit even when projects aren’t built. Like the Levy debacle…
If charging people in advance for private sector projects like nuclear power plants is such a clever, money-saving idea, why has it not caught fire as a way to finance any big, long-term project?
Because it is bogus. Because only monopolies, like electric utilities, can get away with such self-serving shams…
Nowhere in the country do you see big Wall Street firms or banks lending billions of dollars to electric utilities for nuclear plants. The risk is too high. The recent history of building nuclear plants is plagued with fantastic delays and enormous cost overruns.
Repeatedly postponed, the Levy plant’s expected costs skyrocketed to nearly $25 billion in the last seven years. That’s the most expensive nuclear plant project in the country’s history…
But America’s largest electric company might soon ask Tallahassee for another favor.
New Duke CEO Lynn Good says she wants to change the rules in Florida so that any type of big power plant can be charged in advance to its customers…
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/energy/thank-you-tallahassee-for-making-us-pay-so-much-for-nothing/2134390
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Only got the watch Willie’s presentation this afternoon. Clearly those sea level satellites should never have been launched. You don’t spend heaps of money doing things which have no hope of working. These should not have made it to the proposal stage let alone preliminary design review.
10
I love how at the beginning of the presentation it says the views (opinions) are his own and then he spends all the time going on about its not his house, about money and scientists and all that stuff. Why can’t his peer reviewed science speak for itself…
Sea level rise – http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
“For the periods 1972 to 2008 and 1993 to 2008 the
sum of the individual components of sea-level
change equals the total estimated sea-level rise
within the error limits of the various terms (Fig. 5).
Since 1972, thermal expansion contributed about
45% to total sea level rise, glaciers and ice caps
another 40%, with most of the remainder from the
ice sheets. Since 1993 the contribution of the ice
sheets to sea-level rise has increased to about
30% (Fig. 5 and Church et al 2011b).”
http://www.acecrc.org.au/access/repository/resource/1c91bb6a-15f5-1030-998b-40404adc5e91/ACE%20SLR%20REPORT%20CARD.pdf
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Michael,
Figure 5 shows the following:
1. 83mm Total sea level rise from 1960 to 2010 composed of the following.
2. 28mm approx from thermal expansion.
3. 32mm approx from glacier and ice caps.
4. 16mm approx Antartic ice sheet.
5. 12mm approx Greenland ice sheet.
6. -8mm approx on ground water storage.
And all of the above have been corrected to allow for glacial isostatic adjustment (or GIA, the allowance made for vertical motion in the Earth’s crust caused by the redistribution of the water from past ice sheets) eg land rising in tidal measurement areas. Quoted from your link.
Am I on the right track here Michael? So at 1.66mm per year, by 2100 we will have an extra 144mm increase in sea level providing their is no acceleration in the rate. Is this still correct Michael?
And then on average the paper states that vulnerability of soft shorelines increases with
sea-level rise with on average, sandy shorelines recede horizontally at roughly 100 m for every 1 m of sealevel rise. So in my area of Queensland (South East) and yours in Perth it is possible that by 2100 the shoreline will recede by 14.4 meters, is this right Michael?
And is this for the current rate of CO2 emissions globally or at the current rate of increase Michael?
20
Pro. Soon is is greatly entertaining and right on the money.
20
The furore surrounding climate change is not about climate change itself as all scientists accept the principle – it is a question of degree and rate of change. It is even whether the temperature change is upward or downward. AGW proponents are closed to the variables. They just emphasise what they say is the direction of a heat crisis i.e upwards
10
England is slowly sinking into the Atlantic (hence the tidal gates on the Thames), while Scotland is slowly rising. I walked through Pevensey Castle, Camber Castle, Rye, and explored that area of the UK in 2010. It is a sedimentary coast, with silt provided from the North East of England which is being eroded by the English Channel.
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