Dithering politicians push the fatality from 0.5% toward 5%
A gritty analysis by Tomas Pueyo shows how leaders inertia is killing people every day. Some of the victims of tomorrows Virus Get-Togethers won’t die for a few weeks, but the next batch starts tomorrow (and every day until the nation self-isolates, stops the pox-parties, the cough-shopping, and pneumonia-planes. ). And each day there are more than the day before. Sounds macabre, but at this point in an exponential epidemic, it’s just how it is. Since we didn’t stop the Airbussed virus, we’re going to have to shut everything down anyhow, the later we do it, the larger the cost, and the longer it takes. We have to get ahead of this virus.
Meanwhile in Australia, the average punter seems to realize this and the mood is hitting feverish notes with tramplings in supermarkets — The government is calling for calm, but doctors are calling for borders to close, and schools to go online, they’re standing outside schools with signs telling parents not to send their children to school. Doctors are warning that we are the next “Italy” if we don’t get our act together. But the government says it’s too early to close schools (apparently we have to kill some more people first). The keep-schools-open excuses are bizarre: parents are being told to send kids to school so that kids don’t stay home and infect grandparents — which implies that they will infect parents and somehow that is OK. Ministers doesn’t seem to realize that if kids stay home with grandparents early, and we stop this spreading, no one gets sick in the first place. The other excuse to keep the schools open is that healthcare workers need the childcare which South Korea solved by holding small “emergency” classes of under ten students. Better for healthworkers kids and the teachers. In some schools in NSW and Victoria a quarter to a half of all students are already absent as parents keep them home. The Catholic School system (which huge here) is calling for stoppages. Teachers, not surprisingly are not too happy about being sacrificial child minders. They don’t understand why a crowd of 500 is not OK, but a school of 1000 is. And finally some cancer patients, disabled folk and longer lived humans are identifying as the 1-4% who “Are expected to die” and they don’t like being referred to as a casual-nevermind-addendum.
When’s the best time to stop an epidemic? Before it becomes one.
Pueyo calculates the likely final death rates in different areas by converging two different ways to estimate it. Far in the future some countries are headed for a 0.5% while others are aiming for 4% — it depends on the day they start.
How many people will start down a path to dying tomorrow…
Peuyo has a handy method to guesstimate the “percentage of infected employees” or odds of getting infected in your own state — he’s trying to help people answer the question “when should you lock down”. Read it all.
h/t to Orson Olsen for the excellent tip.
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Tomas PueyoThis is what you can conclude:
- Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
- Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.
Some countries have kept the exponential curve at bay…
Notice the main rise and fall plays out over four weeks of lockdowns. And also that it takes 12 days from major action to slow the ship and start to see a difference.
…
He estimates that the true rate of infections (grey lines) rises much faster than the recognised cases.
The two estimates of death rates converge on under 1% or close to 4%. The difference comes down to the day the leader gets their act together. No country on Earth has enough ICU beds for this virus. The later they stop the spread the sooner the hospital wards overflow.
The death rate in central China will end up around 5%. The rate in the rest of China is more like 1%.
…
The rate in South Korea is tending towards 0.5%. (Though it is a pretty “out there” graph — South Korea is one of a kind.)
In Italy the curves are headed towards 4%. The hospitals are totally overrun. Here’s hoping they can bring that back fast. But suddenly it’s clear why the semi lock down one day became a nation lockdown the next.
I heard tonight that Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the US does.
…
Wow. What China did.
The lengths at which it went to contain the virus are mind-boggling. For example, they had up to 1,800 teams of 5 people each tracking every infected person, everybody they got interacted with, then everybody those people interacted with, and isolating the bunch. That’s how they were able to contain the virus across a billion-people country.
This is not what Western countries have done. And now it’s too late.
I do have a reservation with the Pueyo analysis — he doesn’t seem to realize the Chinese stats are computer modeled CCP estimates of something probably ten fold higher. But the rates in China match elsewhere — they might have been using the real ratios, even they faked the numbers to hide the scale. There are only a couple of sentences that hinge on the actuals – -I don’t think Wuhan was really locked down when infections were . Otherwise, the trend is King, unfortunately.
______________________________________________
Coronavirus Background: ☀ The Demographics: the young are spared, but the severity increases with age, and slightly more for men than women. ☀ The Ro is 2 – 3 and exponential curves are steep. How Coronavirus kills: why the number of ICU units matters so much. ☀ Illness progression: Dry coughs and Fevers, Aches. In 15% of people, by day 5 breathing trouble starts. In 3% (?) by day 8 they may need an ICU (intensive care unit). ☀ The good case of Singapore but the ominous calculations of how fast the ICU beds may run out. ☀ Proof that viruses don’t have wings and we should have stopped all flights so much earlier. ☀ The story of how American Samoa avoided Flu Deaths with quarantine in 1918. ☀ The story of Vo, the Italian town that stopped the virus. ☀ Delay = Death, statistics show mortality rates rise tenfold if hospitals are overwhelmed. ☀
Economics: ☀ The huge impact on the Chinese economy, the awful case of Iran.☀
Beware UN advice: ☀ Ethiopian WHO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy ☀
Stats and Data: ☀ John Hopkins Live Map ☀ Worldometer ☀ Coronavirus data in Australia ☀
At my work (Auspost) we only this week have been given directives on how to lessen the odds of contracting Covid-19, use hand sanitizer when needed (not available), don’t let people touch the scanner for signatures, if you feel unwell self isolate……and that’s about it.
I pointed out that carriers of the virus can show no symptoms for two weeks so it’ll be too little too late, I suggested no signature parcels and wearing a mask but that will take further weeks for a decision, I agree if this virus is as bad as Jo is telling us isolation is necessary to overcome it problem is the country will shut down seriously damaging our already weakened industry and infrastructure.
A pandemic is frightening but a solution offered for large compromises is even worse, stay safe people.
182
Going through a strong magnetic field eg MRI machine will ionize water (2H2O => H3O+ + OH-), stuck to the virus CH3 and unravel the acid. This may effectively “kill” the CV-19 virus. The patient would need to be well hydrated.
Who can try this?
51
So why doesn’t the magnetic field “unravel” the other cells? (the important ones like heart, brain, kidney etc)?
20
It causes the water to autoionize by “shaking” a proton off H2O.
00
JO,
I found this on WUWT this morning, a commonly available drug proven affective against virus and been in use for many years
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/
I’ll take the pills but I may just give it a boost with Indian Tonic Water + a liberal glug of GIN!! 🙂
50
Chloroquine in water acts as an acid ionizing water (to a far lesser extent than a strong mag field). It will lower the Covid-19 growth rate. It will help in a mild case of infection.
30
Simply running water through a toroidal mag field will increase the number of ions in the water. Drinking such water will dramatically reduce an acidic virus growth rate in your blood stream or lung tissue.
Our blood stream holds a high percentage of ionized water versus ambient water. As such blood is able to flow in fine capilliaries at low pressure eg as supplied by heart.
40
How does Chloroquine differ from Quinine commonly seen in tonic water? What would the effect of Chloroquine likely be in a moderate infection?
20
Chloroquine would reduce the rate of virus growth. Quinine would be worse than Chloroquine. Its a basic amine. It would cause serious side effects and do nothing to the virus.
Water, treated with a mag field, would be better than Chloroquine.
22
I posted about the video about the chloroquine and zinc combo days ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M
If you find it is too technical, these are the key points: zinc disrupts the virus replication process (by interfering with the relevant protein), but it needs to get inside the cell where this replication takes place. The chloroquine drugs provide a gateway for the zinc ions to enter the cell, so they can go about doing their good work. This was shown in the lab and was published. Taking zinc by itself will do no good, it needs access to the relevant cells attacked by the virus.
50
One of the biggest dangers, and some have said China has already made veiled threats to this effect, is that China controls a large share of the drug and precursor chemical manufacturing. The US has become ridiculously dependent on China, and I imagine Australia is in a similar boat. Meanwhile our MSM is bending over backwards to say what a terrific job China is doing fighting the virus, and the gods forbid anyone mention where the virus originated.
111
Donald Trump was castigated for calling it the China Virus. He replied “it originated in China”. I’m with Donald – I call it the Wuhan virus but I’m happy to change if “China virus” becomes more popular. Covdic 91 or whatever the politically correct slaves to China in the WHO call it, won’t catch on IMHO.
20
I prefer Wuhan Flu or Kung Flu. Covid-19 was a UN WHO concoction to appease China. Quelle surprise…
10
Then again, I prefer to read Covid-19 as “COmmunist Virus Disease – (20)19”
00
I should add that China’s first reaction was to suppress the news and punish those who raised the alert. Their second reaction was to export the virus to the rest of the world as fast as possible, using the WHO.
For all Australia’s faults, I’d rather live here, thanks.
10
Here’s the post I linked to Chloroquine Test Study last week. The Chloroquine enables the Zinc to penetrate cells. 500 gram first day, I’ve read, then 200 g daily for several days.
beththeserf
March 12, 2020 at 3:20 pm.
Here’s the actual link. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&feature=emb_title
10
It makes me wonder if there is a group of federal public servants take with the duty of a cost/benefit analysis, deciding that x% of the population is not just expendable, but actually worth getting rid of. The state government counterparts probably just thought “oh good, the hard work has been done”, and “I’m only following orders”.
Maybe someone threw together some spreadsheets, looked at future pension expenditure, and decided, “well, that’s a nice performance bonus for me if I can cut that”. Letting a lot of older Australians die may well free up some property ripe for shoddy redevelopment, and rake in tax on saved wealth too. Making sure that people have nothing left to inherit is, after all, a key tenet of the Greens, and other left-wing ideologues, and they detest other people’s “old people” anyway.
Disaster response planning, simulations and modelling is useful, and necessary, but I do wonder if the people who are making the recommendations that governments are following, are basing them on anything but financial impact. I wonder if any of them ever have trouble sleeping at night, after witnessing the disaster they have helped to cause.
I know that mistaking malice for incompetence is not a very sane thing to do, but I cannot help but at least entertain the possibility.
201
James,
Nice summary of an ugly situation.
CNNanNanNNandNN Rulz.
KK
20
Sadly I suspect that the “herd immunity” idea as a fall back plan was clouding the thinking of some of the “experts” advising our government. This may have allowed them to justify decisions to avoid expensive proactive measures.
Given the information from SARS autopsies about damage beyond the lungs for a virus targeting the ACE2 receptor, the “herd immunity” plan is simply too risky to try. It should never have been part of any planning.
110
I think youre on the money. At its core if you follow the UN Agenda 2030 and Rewilding mindsets to thier logical conclusions, population reduction appears to be the aim……its a greenist occult new age mindset that appears to be fine with agressive “thinning of the herd” however it happens. You can pick which countries are targetted for the most agressive “thinning” by the response to the virus, which appears to be driven through the powers that be….
120
They plan it openly and elaborately; they write it all out and publish it; they push and manipulate for it at every opportunity…
Yet there is no agency, no intention, no collusion. It’s just stuff going wrong, sort of. And if you think otherwise you’re a (get ready for it now…) conspiracy theorist!
132
Yep.
4 legs good, 2 legs baaaaad…..
30
Maybe we should be reading and viewing the Event 201 meeting that took place before all this came to pass.
There is also a new report regarding numbers of infected people that should be added into the figures.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/17/study-86-percent-infected-with-coronavirus-in-public-are-undetected/
10
Malice, certainly. Incompetence, guaranteed.
We have to remember that these manipulators, despite their energy, their determination and their hold on all corporate and nearly all alternative media, are bunglers. Like commies, basically.
James Corbett has something important to say about the twin scares and how they are already being merged in the public mind…https://tinyurl.com/s5a6wuf
Of course, climate and nearly every subject which seemed important enough to clog the airwaves and internet just a few months ago have all just evaporated for now. No HK, no Yellow Vests, no invasion of Greece, no MeToo, no royal couple…
Just the virus. If you think you’ve had enough virus on left-wing media just flip over to right-wing media for a slightly different version of Fifty Shades of Corona.
Worry not, warmies. Climate will be back soon, with added scienciness thanks to the exhilarating triumphs of statist control in the Corona outbreak. If only that spirit could be brought to bear on those naughty emissions! Well it will be. Won’t be as simple as Bill Gates with a hypodermic to fix everything (except Bill’s terminal pastiness and smirkiness)…but one day we’ll think of Corona as just the practice round for some real control.
161
Yes that’s of course a common conspiracy theory. I prefer to look at things with common sense in mind rather than wild speculation. With that in mind I prefer the notion the governments and the the so called health “experts” are not sure of anything and they are just groping in the dark often making the wrong decision and even when right they take action too slowly. It’s just a human condition and “normal”. No conspiracy theories necessary to explain the crisis we are experiencing right now, which is leading to the world going crazy. If there is a consorted effort by some secret evil minded conspirators then it doesn’t matter and the solution is pretty obvious; NWO, abolition of fiat currencies and total loss of our freedoms are to be expected very soon. I’m more inclined to believe this is all a “natural” consequence of human behaviour at times of a crisis and we will eventually pull out of it for a sling shot move to the next major crisis, which will be the crash and burn of the whole world leading to some NWO, not necessarily due to a consorted effort but merely because the NWO is the “natural” thing to occur.
90
Agree PeterS , some people are all too willing to confuse government incompetence with a sinister plot .
41
Especially since we all pretty much agree governments are no better than bungling fools. That rules them out in any sophisticated conspiracy as that requires a lot of intelligence and smarts, which goes well beyond any group IMHO. So no conspiracy theories are necessary. We are simply witnessing the typical reaction of ill informed and non-intellectual governments in the middle of a crisis of major proportions. That doesn’t mean certain people will conspire to take advantage of the situation to further their quest to instigate a NWO. They will but they are certainly not the government.
41
Meant to say:
That doesn’t mean certain people will NOT conspire to take advantage of the situation to further their quest to instigate a NWO. They will but they are certainly not the government.
31
Disagree, they are certainly almost always the government, “here to help”. That is simply human nature looking to expand its power basis.
“Never let a good crisis go to waste”.
I am from the U.S. Historically the U.S. has recognized Government as a “necessary evil”. The perspective is that it is human nature to desire power. Nobody wants to be a victim, to have no control. The evil part is when that desire becomes desire for power over others. This is the basis of most every crime on the books. And Government is the greatest executor of their own citizens, or democide, death by government. ( Historically factual) Evidence is mounting that this is part if what China did to shorten the exponential of this disease.
00
James Murphy:
Such thoughts inevitably arise when authorities don’t talk about core aspects of what’s supposed to be their core aim…keeping vulnerable people alive.
The dodginess is especially stark when they also ensure us that most fit and well people under 60 will get the virus without becoming seriously ill.
If that’s true…and ventilators are needed to keep the vulnerable people alive…we need to know whether the government is pulling out all stops to ensure no vulnerable person dies for lack of a ventilator…and/or lack of the ACE2 inhibitors that they’re hoping will be both prophylactic and treatment…eg Plaquenil….Hydrochloroquinine…Remdesivir or their equivalents etc.
The UK has banned export of any of their stocks of these drugs…understandably…but do we have them in anything like the quantity we’d need if they fulfil their early promise….we’re told nothing….unless I’ve missed it.
I’ve only heard them resort to weasel words when asked the only question I’ve heard directly asked by a journalist about ventilators….that they’re ‘looking at it’….with a quick move-on.
Is there some sort of ‘don’t mention the ventilators’ pact between Government and journalists to keep Australians in the dark until it’s too late?
They can forget trying to reassure Australians with ‘at risk’ family members that they give a damn about them at all if they don’t hurry up and tell the truth about ventilators and spend the money….as the UK is doing….big time.
There are apparently still billions on offer from Feds and States to reassure the carpetbaggers of the RE racket that they will be supported in transitioning Australia to 3rd world poverty and health and economic insecurity with their world’s most Mickey Mouse 100% weather-dependent unreliable electricity system…..but all indications are that they’ll try to save money….penny-pinch and just make do with ventilators and ICUs.
It’s not as if emissions are not going to sink like a stone as economic growth is inevitably impacted by these events anyway…as the UK government was told a few years ago in a Cambridge report…’you can have emissions cuts or economic growth …you can’t have both’.
It shouldn’t be beyond the ability of government to close schools and make absolutely certain that children of health professionals and essential services workers are looked after so those parents can stay at their jobs…so that other children are not taking the virus home to vulnerable self-isolating parents.
You can’t on the one hand tell health-compromised parents to self-isolate …in order to keep themselves alive…and continue the situation where their kids are coming home from school with viruses.
We have a vested interest in this in our close family because apart from the oldies we have two 30-40ish members in the high risk category…whose children are likely to bring the virus home from school and day care.
Protection for them is impossible without keeping the kids at home in government-supported family [nuclear family] quarantine so that the well parent isn’t going to work and bringing the virus home.
I haven’t heard officials address that specific dilemma …keeping that vulnerable parent alive.
Single chronically-ill people have similar problems with mortgages etc….and should also be helped.
With the virus in the community…and as we’re told not an existential threat to healthy people…shouldn’t it be possible …apart from school closure…and isolation of the vulnerable…to let a lot of business continue with all the special conditions and some lateral thinking from owners?
Everything else they spend money on will be meaningless if they let people die needlessly for want of ventilators.
00
Death rates are meaningless unless every person in Australia ( or whatever region ) gets tested. The rate of infection might be 3 or 4 times the actual figure because so many who carry the virus either have very mild or no symptoms and don’t qualify for testing. This means that the real death rate is far lower. Whilst it is well known that children suffer little or no impact from the virus do we know how many children would be positive and if they are positive , but with no symptoms are they more or less contagious. I would’ve thought that this information would be quite valuable in assessing whether kids should be in school or not. Is there evidence for instance that teachers at schools have contracted the virus from their students. If they are not as contagious , or that if they do infect others their type of infecting is not fatal it does not matter whether kids are at school or not. There must be data coming through that would answer these points.
140
South Korea are the masters of testing, which is why I think their figures of 0.5% – 0.9% are realistic.
Also matches The Diamond Princess, where everyone got tested and the fatality rate was 1% (but an older group so let’s say 0.5%).
In both those situations the ICU beds were available. So I’m confident that the best we can hope for (without a mutation) is 0.5%.
The worst perhaps 5%.
South Korea would have statistics on kids. But in western nations so far the virus is mostly in 30-60 year olds — probably because they travel so much. It may be that we hyaven’t had much spread in schools yet because people who travel a lot are also ones who don’t have school age children. Just speculating…
70
Jo, I think you are premature on the Diamond Princess.
How long was the Diamond Princess in semi quarantine? Less then a month with about 8 doubling events.
( Not Good)
Most of that time supposed isolation in seperate rooms, small groups only out, keeping seperate.
So a poorly done quarantine, perhaps analogous to treating this like a common flu.
Fully one third of the passengers are not recovered. Mean illness time of those passengers is at least one month, a reasonable WAG of 5 weeks.
15 are serious / critical. The other 218 are still sick! I will wait to see how many of the serious/critical recover, and which way the 218, still sick after 5 weeks go, before coming to any mortality number.
Perhaps most important here, all received excellent medical care and the final CFR could be 3 to 5 percent.
That and only a month of spreading, and then true quarantine stopped the spread in its tracks. The lesson here is true quarantine works, and this virus has a very high R naught.
Just my perspective.
10
Correction to “Fully one third of the passengers are not recovered”
Should read Fully one third of the INFECTED passengers are not recovered.”
00
There is a new report out that tends to agree with you Zigmmaster.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/17/study-86-percent-infected-with-coronavirus-in-public-are-undetected/
20
Any report that only considers 1/2 the equation is very flawed.
Deaths never tested or attributed to this disease were very common in China, and due to many testing flaws in many nation, this is likely to repeat wherever overwhelmed hospitals practice triage.
00
Dr John Campbell speculates infection rates are 10-20 times the reported figures in the west:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOSwYGhmnwo
He has been advocating for stronger quarantine measures from the start (at least as far back as January). He’s doing a good job of putting out a realistic perspective of the situation.
01
Agree Zig’,
Death rates as a ratio to “Confirmed” or Reported, or Recovered cases,..is a meaningless figure.
The only definitive ratio worth knowing is as a % of total population.
And the only reliable guide we know of for that is the data from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship where we know all 3700 passengers and crew were tested, and a total of 7 deaths reported.
That is a death ratio of 0.2% to the entire population and to the number tested
The Wuhan data is less reliable but the authorities claim to have tested 99% of the population (10+m?) with 3000+ ? Deaths…a 0.03% ratio.
21
Chad, 233 passengers of the diamond princess are still sick.14 are serious critical, 7 are dead.
Those 233 have not recovered after a month plus, likely a mean five plus weeks of illness. How many of them will succumb?
As to the entire 3700 passengers; Well there were 8 doubling on that ship in their month of quarantine. 20 percent were infected, with sick removed from the population as it occurred. They were 2.25 doublings from 100 percent infected.
The Diamond Princess is an excellent example of why strong defensive protocols work. ( The contagion stopped when they removed the passengers)
Also your first sentence, “Death rates as a ratio to “Confirmed” or Reported, or Recovered cases,..is a meaningless figure” is IMV, dangerously wrong. Death ratios and critically ill ratios have a very direct casual relationship to overwhelmed hospitals. 100 percent of the Diamond Princess sick have received excellent health care, dramatically lowering wat ever the final CFR is when all cases are concluded.
00
Dave A,
Any “rate” (ratio) that is based on an inaccurate figure ( number infected ??) is itself inaccurate and hence useless data.
00
Chad, with the microcosm of the Diamond Princess we have a sad but effective experiment.
I agree all the other numbers are suspect, including number of fatalities, however they are not useless, as they are a predicate to overwhelmed hospitals.
00
We can still stop this thing, not just slow it down if our government would just get back into the fight.
Stopping the flights, widespread shutdown and above all proper testing for more than respiratory symptoms on a scale to rival South Korea should all be part of the plan.
A present our government has shown no signs of even having a plan.
82
I’ll wait until Sunday before making any more pronouncements about the new WHO officially reported case rate in Australia. But at the risk of leaping to conclusions I can’t help but blurt out what seems obvious already from yesterday’s data.
The rate of increase has decreased enormously since 14 March. Still exponential but a smaller exponent.
Some obvious candidate explanations are:
• that quarantines on international arrivals have already shown a big effect, which was expected as they accounted for 3 out 4 cases at the beginning of last week.
• that the need for social distancing spread through Internet and MSM well ahead of ScoMo’s belated declarations.
• Contact tracing and self-isolation for probable contacts of new cases is becoming more effective.
• maybe testing has slowed down, but this seems less likely. A constant rescaling of the same exponential growth would produce a line with the same slope but starting slightly lower on the log-linear chart. But what seems to be happening is a reduction in the slope of the line. So we’re not seeing a smaller fraction tested of the same exponential growth, it’s a reduction in the underlying growth exponent.
• A mixture of all the above.
So the Liberal government have done only 1 out of 3 of your wishlist and it has already (apparently) had a significant effect. More data by Sunday will help determine if this is a random bump or a sign of the new trend.
30
One thing to be very, very wary of, is the government’s propensity to overreach in times of crisis … never let a crisis go to waste. There is a push to access mobile phone data (such as location tracking) for virus tracking purposes. If they push through such legislation, have a strong expectation that it will become permanent.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/u-s-government-reportedly-in-talks-with-tech-companies-on-how-to-use-location-data-in-covid-19-fight/
https://www.cnet.com/news/israel-is-tracking-phone-location-data-to-fight-covid-19-reports-say/
https://globalnews.ca/news/6642722/taiwan-cellphone-tracking-data-contain-covid-19/
I could post lots more, I am sure.
10
Andrew,
It has been reported that Australia has only a few thousand CV19 test kits ( and only another 100,000 on order !). So do not be surprised if the reported cases is heavily influenced by the amount of tests done.
Testing in Au is heavily restricted due to limited resources.
10
Yeah, well, that was just bad timing that the first report about testing being rationed was not published at the ABC until after I had done my data analysis and had begun writing that comment, which took more than 15 minutes. It was only several hours later I heard about the testing shortage. The effect this has on the case figures depends on when this rationing started, and based on the news it mainly began after the letter sent by Murphy on Fri 13th, which co-incides with the sudden change in direction of the cumulative case count.
What I said about the exponent change versus coefficient change remains true mathematically, in terms of how it affects the chart. Therefore, if a throttling of testing is the main cause of the apparent slowdown, what we should see over the next 7 days is that this initial deflection in the direction of the time series will curve upwards on the log-linear chart until its slope again approximately matches what it was last week.
All it does is delay our understanding of the amount of infection. It turns a slow-motion train wreck into a slower slow-motion train wreck with the wreck being just as bad in the end. As you have just seen, this inconsistency in testing (sampling) is confusing variables and makes it more difficult to measure the efficacy of the various countermeasures enacted during the last 3 weeks, and will unfortunately confuse judgements again if they improve testing capacity (although that would still be a welcome improvement).
00
Aaaaand thinking about it some more, the upwards curve may not happen even if the cause was the testing volume reduction. I’d assumed the testing is still uniformly random over the infections, but that’s not what that news was telling me. The ABC’s description of the Federal instruction was: “it specified testing for overseas travellers with fever and symptoms, those in close contact with COVID-19 cases, and those with severe pneumonia.”
Unless a person has severe pneumonia already (which is leaving it kindof late), this test will not be applied to anyone for whom one link in the infection chain is unknown because they cannot be linked to a confirmed COVID-19 case. But with international travellers quarantined, the only other confirmed cases are the ones we already had found under the previous testing regime. The only people “in close contact” are hospital staff. It’s like a ball and cups trick with case definitions. The test criteria is the factory for confirmed cases, so they rigged the factory.
To be blunt about it, they’re effectively reserving the tests for themselves, the healthcare workers. These people are in the front line and certainly need to be take off it as soon as they let a bug in. But they use behaviour-level, equipment-level, and environment-level protections that most people don’t. So the rate of spread amongst this group will be lower than the general population, and that may end up leading to the line having the low slope I originally proposed, but for a completely different reason.
When you change the sampling method, you change the meaning of the resulting statistic.
This cumulative case number no longer means “how well are we the general public doing at containing the virus with all this inconvenience we’re incurring?”
After the test rationing kicked in the figure now shows mainly how well hospital workers are doing at stopping themselves from getting infected while the rest of the country turns into Zombieland off the chart. The ship is sinking while the band plays on. Insert your favourite pop culture metaphor of choice.
Or as the unnamed doctor in Brisbane put it: “So we get a false sense of security that numbers aren’t rising, but the numbers are rising.”
00
Some advice I’ve gleaned, not being provided by govts:
1. Take vitamin D supplements (via Dr John Campbell on youtube, probably much less relevant for the southern hemisphere, but the housebound may need it, especially housebound vegans)
2. Get as cardio-vascular fit as possible, i.e. get a bit out of breath regularly.
3. Don’t take fever reducing medication, such as paracetamol and ibuprofen (via Dr John Campbell on youtube, there is different advice for children)
60
Goodmorning Jo,
Thanks again for your huge efforts in helping us understand what we are up against and the practical steps we can take to make a difference in our own communities. Encouraging us to write to relevant decision makers helped over here, the NZ Catholic Bishops took action to protect us from infection before Ministry of Health advice was given, due to persistent letter writing.
Your skills in helping us understand this disaster may make all the difference and this work may turn out to be one of the most important things in your career. Cant thank you enough.
121
Hopefully this info is true. It relates to the Australian Federal Govt Cabinet.
72
Be careful what you wish for. All that implies a depression and mass starvation unless there are strict controls put in place everywhere including perhaps martial law.
60
Here is what Sam Vaknin says in his latest video.
“Narcissistic Coronavirus for Narcissistic Civilization (LINKS in DESCRIPTION)”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oN6i3Gx22kc
“Latest by the authoritative science journal New Scientist: COVID-19 (Coronavirus) kills 0.7-1% of those infected. 99% fully recover. 7000 people had died, most of them above age 50 and with pre-existing conditions (such as heart disease, obesity, smoking-related complications, or diabetes). The flu decimated 30,000 people in the US alone during the same period. The measures adopted by governments, communities, and individuals the world over are far more dangerous and detrimental than this or any other virus can ever be.”
“This mass delusion, psychosis, hysteria, or panic is a first. The only comparable reaction to a pandemic happened in the 14th century with the bubonic plague (Black Death). [My bolding] The Spanish flu killed 50-100,000,000 worldwide. AIDS infected 45,000,000 and millions perished. Swine flu infected 61 million in the USA alone – and killed 600,000 globally. SARS (2002-4) had a case fatality rate 10 times higher than COVID-19. There was no hint of panic or hysterical self-isolation. So, what gives? Why now? [My bolding]”
[Anyone still with a New Scientist description, I’d love to see more of their text to expose just how incompetent they are. – jo]
00
PeterS — why would a two week lockdown cause a depression? Isn’t it self evident that a 6 month slow bleed would neither get rid of the virus, nor be better for the economy (death to small business in Australia).
50
Jo – Check the price on EXXON or Boing – the virus is exacerbating what was already a poor economic situation. As more companies shut down or downsize, more workers will be unable to spend, as they are unemployed, which will be a classic positive feedback. So far we are skirting around the “new deal” but at some stage (and probably too late) massive socialist (not communist) programs will be instituted – During the great depression for example, you could not change jobs without permission of the manpower department.
30
It depends on what you mean by “lockdown”. The type of lockdown some are promoting would lead to a complete meltdown of the financial system and massive disruption of the distribution of essential items, which in turn would lead to mass starvation, UNLESS we instigate war like controls and perhaps even martial law to enforce and manage such a lockdown. A milder form of lockdown won’t be so severe on the economy but it will IMHO have a limited impact on stopping the spread of the virus. It’s really a balancing act. How many people are we willing to sacrifice to avoid a depression depending on the severity and type of the lockdown. One needs to wisdom of Solomon to make that sort of judgement. I don’t have that sort of wisdom unfortunately. I’m just a poor observer watching people going crazy over essential items who are scared out of their wits while people in authority are gradually implementing lcokdown procedures. In my mind that’s a recipe for a mass panic and mayhem on a scale we haven’t seen in history for a long time. So governments need to prepare for the worst, which might or might not happen.
10
The problem of antiviral measures is, it’s a head vs heart conflict or economy vs health. In this
situation, for the powers that be, it takes a while to be forced into realising the head has to
be king because the heart costs lives, and the economy, at an exponentially increasing rate. Immunising the
herd mentality would have so many crook eventually that businesses would fail anyway. As I said before, a ‘Life of
Brian’ scenario. A long drawn out process with a negative return.
(AS I read it from the information from the time this blog began rolling).
00
This is what is needed !
Hope it happens
But I think it not.
Just more fudging from SLOMO, Hunt & Murphy !
41
A quick google shows that to be a hoax.
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-shutdown-australia-the-truth-about-the-nationwide-lockdown-warning-message-on-social-media-c-750265
30
As Yonnie says above,
“problem is the country will shut down seriously damaging our already weakened industry and infrastructure.”
Obviously isolation is an important aspect of minimising the escalation of virus transmission but the nature of the isolation is critical to avoid the inevitable collateral damage.
Hopefully we can mostly go about our daily businesses in a way that keeps transmission at bay but keeps the wheels of society moving.
So far most governments don’t seem to have any conception of the balance needed and rely on CNNNNN style media appearances to save face while avoiding the necessity of keeping the public informed.
Is this a real disaster or media hyperventilating again.
It’s too good a story to miss so they’re going for all they’re worth and when this fades they’ll be back at full strength with Wobal Glorming, or similar.
Can’t we control our government?
KK
31
Forget climate change. We are now focusing a panic situation where food supplies are already running out. Government needs to act to stop the panic and introduce rationing today.
50
Some food & grocery supplies …
Those items should be rationed for the next 3 -4 weeks
61
Agree. No need to worry about lipstick and the like. They can disappear from the shelves forever as far as I’m concerned.
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“New Video : How To Create A Worldwide Depression”
Posted on March 17, 2020 by tonyheller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5CZ7SS06es
51
A fair amount of common sense. The only problem is he neglects two key differences between the CAGW scare and the current corona virus crisis. One, people are dying albeit not anywhere near as high as in many past pandemics, at least not yet. So there is a legitimate fear that this could lead to millions of deaths. We just do not know and anyone who says they do is just speculating. Two, people are already panicking. No one was panicking during all the years of the CAGW scare. People were not hoarding essential items on a mass scale leading to empty shelves on an unprecedented scale. Today they are too many who are in panic mode and it’s feeding fear into others. It could snowball into a major disaster, which is why rationing must be implemented right now, UNLESS the shops can GUARANTEE they can replenish the shelves in the near future to meet the heightened demand, and keep replenishing them. If they can’t GUARANTEE that then rationing has to be implemented before things get much worse.
30
I believe Governments must tackle Coronavirus head-on (e.g Taiwan etc), and not meddle with policies that only become necessary when you do not tackle Coronavirus head-on.
I am grateful to Jo for the time and trouble taken to present us with the facts and not the fudge.
100
That would require government and private corporations somehow to service massive amounts of debt to avoid a depression. Otherwise a private and public liquidity crises will occur at the same time that will make the GFC look like a picnic. Perhaps we will need to cease all fiat currency based debts and introduce a new digital world currency. Hmmm.
30
Regarding China…
Agreed, China did not destroy their economy over a simple flu. (This is just a flu crowd, think about that please) Their hospitals were overwhelmed. Their medical personnel were panicked and distraught. China vastly under-reported what was happening. This is what people there have said, and shown on videos.
Lines of sick people waiting to get into the hospital, some collapsing then and there. China shut down ALL observations. They have zero credibility.
I won’t explain it in detail now, but, IMV, they shortened the steep exponential curve two ways, by good quarantine and bad. The bad was to lock in prisions, (duh right) quarantine in elderly care facilities, and Group quarantine of potentially exposed in large deadly common air spaces. This vastly accelerated the RO, while good seperate quarantines of likely unexposed and infected, also cut off the viral food chain.
The bad quarantine however fed it, until, via killing the host, the virus ran out of food. By accelerating the R-naught this also shortened the time of the exponential rise.
Two different methods of shortening the time period of the steep exponential. Many reports say that China then buried or cremated the dead, and does not count them in the numbers.
While Chinese party dictators have zero credibility, the countless reports and videos of the common citizens that suffered this nightmare, deserve to be listened to.
Now, any nation where this virus gains a foothold hold, has, without strong quarantines and travel bands, quickly overwhelmed their hospital system. ( Despite much better prep then China intialy had, the overwhelmed medical systems are still happening, like Italy, now Spain, now others.
Remember, this started in China in December sometime. China had zero tests, zero travel bans, zero quarantine. The worldmeter for China starts on January 22nd with 8 deaths. China was vastly behind any nation at thus time. There hospitals already overwhelmed. Ground zero to some tests to overwhelmed hospitals is at least five weeks.
Also the virus has not been active in the ROW as long as in China, where it likely started in mid December and spread for weeks with zero tests, zero travel bans, zero quarantined.
So Italy, despite those defensive protocols placed earlier then China, now has 8 times the per capita infections of China. ( Official numbers, but evedince of Fake China numbers)
In fact most nations where this has hit now have three to 8 times the per capita infection rate of China, despite earlier controls and less time to spread. ( Further evidence of China lies which P Trump referred to.) Our own CDC lied to P Trump as well.
My sincere studied view, from evidence, is that sans these defensive protocol measures, the society disruption would eventually, on exponential growth time, be far worse and longer. Now we are mainly seeing the severe harm of the counter measures. If they work that is all you will see. Then the ” it’s a scam folks” will crow, even though the other scenario never played out.
Some tech folk say Y2K was an example of this. That people heard the warnings, ignored all the work to prevent, then discounted it as a fake concern. I don’t know this area, yet the analogy carries a message.
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We are adding deadly and needless economic standstill as well as social chaos to an economic crash which was inevitable and has nothing to do causally with any virus.
Instead of the Can-Kicking Recession or the Great Recession or the Sub-Everything Recession it will be called the Corona Recession. A few thousand people, mostly elderly, have died from a particular strain (maybe!) of flu over a couple of late season months? And that’s globally? Five hundred people die every year of…hippopotamus attack.
Wow. Those can-kickers are actually going to pull this off. And they’ll get the bonus of advancing their creepy globo agenda. (Never mind the small business shut-downs. Corporate chains will easily take up the slack when doors open again. Would you like fries with that?)
126
We need to have a discussion about the new world order. The yuan looks strong.
30
Before we do that we need to stop the panic buying of essential items including food. Stores are running out leaving many people vulnerable and in danger. Looting will be next. Government needs to step in and introduce a war style rationing system.
50
“Government needs to step in . . . . . . ”
The government is already stepping in it!
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Rubbish! They are doing too little too late and often the wrong off the cuff decisions. Have you been to the shops lately? I’m seeing people overfilling shopping trolleys with large quantities of meat, milk, etc. It’s gone insane and it must be stopped now. UK officials are advising people aged 70 or more to self-quarantine for 4 months! Borris Johnson’s father said no way he will comply. Such hard line off the cuff restrictions without follow-up and support are simply insane.
50
I’m glad that Boris was told to stuff off by his own father !
It might make him rethink his approach.
30
You’re getting yourself into a knot, relax. The situation is under control and the authorities will take all necessary steps to see know body starves to death.
11
…nobody ….
10
You have too much faith in governments.
30
Also trusting the government didn’t help those elderly who got up early and queued up at Woolworths only to find the shelves empty of the essentials they needed and expected to buy. The panic buying needs to be stopped now before the situation becomes worse.
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Okay, you’re PM for a day, what would you do at this point in time?
I’ll do a critique.
20
As I said in a previous post I do not have the wisdom of Solomon as I’m just a poor observer seeing people losing their heads of shopping items. Having said that here is what I would do since you asked. However, to be fair I would need to PM for at least 5 years not 1 day. Rome wasn’t built in a day you know.
1. I would introduce a system of rationing across all essential items. One approach I mentioned some days ago is to allow people to buy such items only on certain days based on the first letter of their last name. There might be better ways. The panic buying must stop immediately. Words are not enough.
2. Test, test and test again. We need the government to fund the manufacture of millions of test kits. I don’t care how many billions it would take. We can forget any idea of a surplus. They are now gone forever, or at least until after the big reset that’s yet to come in the years/decades to come. I can see us being over a trillion in debt by the end of the year for a variety of reasons. The tests need to be done on as many people as possible, and if tested positive isolated immediately.
3. Speed up the trials of the new vaccines that have been developed and any news ones found soon.
4. Provide appropriate hand sanitisers and sprays for free.
5. Sterilise all train, buses and taxis on a daily basis.
6. Re-teach how people should wash their hands.
7. Remove all time related restrictions on delivery trucks from warehouses to stores. Hire more people to drive the trucks.
plus many more but they would require me to be PM for say 5 years. These are things like start building new coal fired and nuclear power stations, review and possibly scrapping the new sub contract, bring back many of our industries, etc. In other words make Australia great again. Once done we can tell China to go to hell with their restrictive and dishonest trade practices.
10
Peter,
Read the comment.
I think you’ve stepped in it.
🙂
10
Sorry I now get your meaning, and of course you are right.
20
Yeah, keep up that mantra about how well your emperor manages everything back over there.
30
delay=death, is that a transnational corporation? o, i think i know
https://aumladder.blogspot.com/2020/03/skull-bones-have-sworn-oath-never-to.html
21
mosomoso — I admire your judgement on almost all topics, but am baffled on this one.
If this has a 4 – 5% death rate (if we just “let it rip” and overflow the hospitals) this will mean 15% mortality rates in the 80+ group. As every family starts to lose a grandparent, or know a family that does — do you really expect the punters to keep going to work? We are already seeing people withdraw from many things and the deaths have barely begun.
I would argue that even though society would cope in the long run if 1 in 6 seniors suddenly died before their times (along with younger people too) that the sheer inhumanity of watching that happen would drive human society into a depression in the attempt to avoid it. We are human, we can’t “just let it happen”.
My preferred solution is short sharp hard and fast: major action to cut viral numbers to nothing. Saves lives, saves the ecomony.
Then we get back to normal faster, we live vigilantly in fear of small outbreaks for the next year, but figure out a treatment or vaccine and cope.
60
Agree completely Jo
But I see that our CMO Murphy
Is still being a dumbnut on this disease
he wants less drastic measures over 6 months
Ummmmm ?
20
Bill, the virus is here. The financial fiasco was baked into the cake. All it needed was a suitable ‘trigger’ ‘scapegoat’ and the economy has the same disease in nearly all nations. Not what i want to mainly talk about. Instead, it is the same old same old psycho-ill-logical aspect.
Sam Vaknin who is rather sobering and so sometimes boring 🙂 is quite astute in his observations, and i must say accurate in my opinion, as far as i have been able to verify… I do not subscribe to all of Sams opinions. The link is below and a short quote from the notes in his recent video. I do subscribe to the observation he makes in part of his enlightening talk and notes he left behind for us to look at if we should choose to do so… Sam was attending university at the age of 12! Perhaps Sam is intellectually confident, so it does not necessarily mean he is an egotist.
Here is part of what he had to say in his errata/notes associated with the vid. Very sobering indeed.
From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oN6i3Gx22kc
“This nihilistic state of mind results in the most counterintuitive phenomenon: people violently castigate anyone who tries to restore calm and good sense. They mob, humiliate, slander, and threaten those who do not subscribe to apocalypse. [My bolding] They gang on psychologists and medical doctors and politicians who attempt to offset the rampant irrationality and the panic which have swept across large swathes of humanity.”
10
People running relatively small-scale sporting clubs are getting the message. Last night I received an urgent email from my athletics club (100+ members) saying the club rooms were locked and training suspended until further notice and this was for the first time in 107 years. Another running organisation I belong to (500+ members) has just cancelled a half marathon in the country scheduled for next month, where about a thousand participants were expected over all its events.
On the other hand I look at the Parkrun organisation which was founded in England about 15 years ago and now has thousands of free Saturday morning 5km runs world wide. They have cancelled Parkrun in many countries but still allow it in England and Australia. There are now over 400 events across Australia and some of them regularly reach 500 participants. About 100,000 people have run or walked it and on any weekend total attendance is around 60,000. Parkrun are still dithering about closing down all together, suggesting that it is important for people’s “mental health” to remain open for as long as possible. What nonsense. I have been monitoring attendance this year and last week there was a drop of 25%, to 45000. It may finally be closed before this weekend but if not I expect a further large decline as people self-regulate anyway.
Last night I was out on a walk and someone’s dog came over and jumped up at me in a friendly manner and licked my arm. I said to the owner “that’s OK” but when I got back to my car It occurred to me “where’s that dog been?” Straight into the shower when I got home.
As I mentioned in the previous thread, yesterday I received a newsletter from my state Liberal MP and there was no mention of the crisis at all. Yet the Marshall government is working hard with state medical officials to overcome this, but it makes you wonder!
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Ian I suspect that that her letter to you was drafted about 4 weeks ago
And printed and enveloped and posted on automatic pilot.
When she had other priorities
And being uninformed, knew nothing of this disease.
But Marshall now sees it as an opportunity to shine
And so is pushing some levers !
30
I agree with the preparation time lag Bill, but my point is the whole thing should have been shelved or at the very least had a “stop press” type of announcement stapled to it with recommendations about what to do. It wasn’t in an envelope, just a glossy flyer dropped in my letter box yesterday. It talks about better health services, with elective surgery waiting lists halved, more hospital beds etc and you think “hang on, doesn’t she know?” It talks about costs being lower for households and businesses. Now there aren’t any businesses in some industries, eg travel agencies. I imagine that when things get back to “normal” food costs will never be as low again!
When Princess Diana was killed a women’s magazine immediately destroyed a million copies of a new issue about to hit the stands.
20
Update about Parkrun – now Australia and New Zealand events cancelled until at least the end of March. UK still going by the looks of it.
From Tom Williams, Parkrun Global Chief Operating Officer:
No, I don’t think so.
20
I can’t help but draw something of a parallel with an extended extremely cold winter.
1/ Some people are more susceptible than others and some will die.
2/ The level of susceptibility for certain groups of people is known.
3/ Mitigating actions are available.
4/ Kids are least affected.
5/ The elderly and infirm are most at risk.
6/ It’s going to happen, to a greater or lesser extent depending on region or country.
We face these circumstances every year and that is just dealing with the cold weather. Sure, Corona has some special attributes and certain actions need to be ramped up to try and minimise the damage, however i question whether the wholesale destruction of the world’s economy will not result in the longer term, in even more deaths and disabilities. Instead, perhaps we should be looking to refining/improving the way we deal with an annual crisis, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and extending it Globally.
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Re 6/ It’s only going to happen if we allow it to happen. We can stop it, but are choosing to pretend it is the Flu when it is 2 x as infectious and (without an ICU) it is 50 x as deadly. It can also target 4 – 5 times as much of the population.
So it is 100 x as bad unless we take drastic action to slow it and then it is only 2 x as infectious, and 5 times as deadly. (So 10 x the Flu).
hence, as sure as the Sun rises we will end up taking drastic action. But we will do it “too late” to avoid a major impact and significant deaths.
We will end up preventing most potential deaths, but scorch the economy, people’s mental health.
I am baffled that people think this mismanaged incompetent future is inevitable, appealing, or that a four week stay at home with food deliveries is “Dire”.
50
Joe I can see your point, but please explain how probably half our population will survive financially with no income.
I saw one state government, [WA I think], is going to give it’s over paid under worked government employees a month paid leave, for gods sake. If they have all that money to waste it should be split among the whole community, not given to the bureaucratic sector.
Meanwhile, if the schools are closed, millions of women are going to have to stay home, unpaid. How many of our families who live JUST IN TIME lives could survive financially with even a month of no second income. They stand to lose homes, cars, much of their furniture, internet & phone access, among many other things when the money runs out.
Yes it is great to say we should do these things, but just possibly this cure would cause an even worse financial catastrophe, than the health problem the virus causes.
As you can see I’m good at seeing problems, just not so quick with answers, however if an even large number of us old farts have to accept some additional risk to save our economy, perhaps that is the course we have to take. PS, my 80Th was last weekend.
30
How probably half our population will survive financially with no income? Simple. Governments all over the world have changed the rules. No more surpluses. We are all going much further into debt. I expect we will be over a trillion by the end of the year, perhaps two if things continue to deteriorate. Governments are dead scared of a depression and they will do anything in their pwoer to avoid it. It will not work in the long run but they might postpone it and continue to kick it down the road as they have been doing for the last couple or so financial crises. Their last bullet will be to declare all fiat currency null and void, outlaw all current crypto-currencies and introduce a new digital world currency.
10
And how many small businesses have already gone bust with maybe 5 to 10 years of work, hope and effort put in only to be swept aside by bureaucratic decisions offered to government on the basis of hurried indifference rather than careful analysis.
As Hasbeen says we need to make absolutely sure that the cure is not worse than the disease.
Some may just give up. It is sadly the case in farming where governments give access to natural water flows to pander to environmentalists and make a few quid from selling water rights to “associates”.
KK
10
Breaking: Clinical trials for a coronavirus vaccine will be introduced on Monday
“In perhaps an even more bizarre piece of news, a vaccine-production institute also funded by Gates has obtained a patent for coronavirus:
The Pirbright Institute, which has been funded by globalist oligarch and vaccine pusher Bill Gates, has a patent on the books for coronavirus.
“The present invention provides a live, attenuated coronavirus comprising a variant replicate gene encoding polyproteins comprising a mutation in one or more of non-structural protein(s) (nsp)-10, nsp-14, nsp-15 or nsp-16. The coronavirus may be used as a vaccine for treating and/or preventing a disease, such as infectious bronchitis, in a subject,” the description of the patent reads.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is a known backer of the Pirbright Institute. They gave the institute $5.5 million just last year to create a Livestock Antibody Hub for disease research in humans and animals. They are deeply involved in the business of vaccine pushing.
No doubt that there will be globalists who become very rich as a result of this coronavirus crisis, as the Hegelian dialectic is once again on full display”.
https://bigleaguepolitics.com/breaking-coronavirus-vaccine-will-be-introduced-for-clinical-trials-on-monday/
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In relation to statistics, are there any truthful tallies out there? I know it is easy to single out countries we don’t like, and say “they’re liars”, but…
The main point – that we are not doing enough, is the most germane here. For example, we now have two government stimulus packages, in one week. I’m betting we’ll see a third by the reserve bank in the the next few days. In the meantime, supermarkets are selling out of basics, and the government offers nothing to either quell the panic, or to ensure supplies, (there are federal and state laws about hoarding). In other words this is playing out exactly the same way as the response to the bushfires – too little, too late
This is an unprecedented perfect storm – to update an old phrase
50
I think every country reports their cases differently according to their own selection criteria.. We really also need numbers/tallies on how many are getting sick from stocking up on junk food as many do during a pandemic of fear. I can remember my first teenage bush walking camping trip. We all felt so sick from eating canned food that we could not wait to get back and eat normally again. Fresh food and so on.
We need a ‘how to go shopping during social pandemic’, an accredited guide and advice’s. What to shop for and why etc.
I know i have been going on about poor nutrition like a broken record. In my view, the reaction to the virus hysteria is causing vulnerable people to panic buy chips, lollies, soft drink, and popcorn etc.
22
And if we were to implement a sensible ration policy we could expect better health (as in Britain in WW2)
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/releases/9728#1
30
Its a fair comment.
In terms of deaths from this bug, I wonder how many would have survived had the health systems not been swamped and subsequently treatment was available?
Does anyone know of the death rate from treated vs non-treated?
10
Imagine today’s reality combined with the insanity of net zero emissions or even Labor’s previous policy of 45% emissions reductions.
The world seems to have gone mad as panic and hysteria rule and reason is non existent.
This is especially evident here in Australia where the real testing times are yet to come as winter approaches and the hoarders will find themselves in the same position anyway as their stockpiles cannot possibly last till September anyway.
It may be better for some to get the virus early and get over it with immunity to reinfection – there is no doubt about the seasonality of flu virus infections and the NH is coming out of winter whilst we are approaching it.
The scenes I saw of thousands of airline arrival passengers confined to arrival halls in airports is the exact opposite of rational behaviour – group them together like that for long enough and ensure maximum infections.
70
Here are some figures worth looking at.–essentially saying you have to compare apples with apples, not oranges. I am not suggesting by linking this article that the issue should not be taken seriously, but is it worth turning whole economies upside down? Definitely look after the elderly and those with reduced immune systems and promote safe practices for the general public.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/breaking-exclusive-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-reported-by-the-media-is-completely-inaccurate-the-actual-rate-is-less-than-the-flu-media-lying-again/
This epidemic is a long, long way from what occurred with H1N1. A reminder :
” By 18 December 2009 in Australia, 37,537 swine flu tests yielded positive results and the confirmed death toll of people infected with swine flu was 191.
Disease: H1N1 Influenza (Human Swine Influe…
Deaths: 191
Confirmed cases: 37,537 ”
All I am trying to say is lets get things in perspective.
60
“When’s the best time to stop an epidemic? Before it becomes one.”
WHO failure. Too busy writing reports on how climate change was a health emergency unjustly targeting ethnic minorities and women and the LBGTQ community. Far too slow to act. If China had been isolated immediately none of this would have happened, OK a handful of rogue cases might have escaped but contact tracing and isolation would have easily snuffed out any further spread.
Let’s just be thankful it wasn’t something really contagious and deadly.
Maybe not that fragile either, “the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces, according to a new study……”
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces
50
Meanwhile “Political correctness’ is going going bonkers.
State & Commonwealth health bureaucrats are releasing less information about the overseas origins of infected COVID 19 disease .
The Covid website https://www.covid19data.com.au/
has this remark
“As case numbers have grown, health authorities have released less information about originating countries, hence the increase in undisclosed values.
No doubt this is to ‘protect’ such nationalities.”
But in fact such information is essential for ordinary people to make informed decisions about how to protect themselves.
30
Italy has a TB issue due to large numbers of non-native italians….
00
Sorry…should read….
“Italy allegedly has a TB issue due to large numbers of non-native italians….”
10
I find graph 9 misleading as it does not consider population size.
10
Is this a major breakthrough?
Posted over a week ago unverified research from Chinese scientists showing Chloroquine phosphate was effective in treatment of Covid-19. This research has now been disseminated widely and replicated as shown here- https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/
If the research is accurate, common tonic water may well be of huge prophylactic benefit as it usually contains quinine.
21
Hit the wrong button.
Sea green.
00
More breakthrough latest virus research. There is so much new science becoming available out there it is hard to keep up…..
“Ancient never-before-seen viruses discovered locked up in Tibetan glacier”
https://www.livescience.com/unknown-viruses-discovered-tibetan-glacier.html
“Climate change fears: Melting glaciers could unleash ancient viruses, scientists say”
https://7news.com.au/news/environment/climate-change-fears-melting-glaciers-could-unleash-ancient-viruses-scientists-say-c-669971
30
We’re done for, oh the humanity!
10
It only took a few weeks for the Climate Change loonies to link Viruses to Climate Change!!!
40
Speaking of climate disaster…
In less than 35 hours it will be the deadline for the infamous prediction of Dr David Viner of East Anglia University.
Hmmm. The facts are it already looks like a busted prediction.
Snowfall was reportedly lacklustre in the Scottish Cairngorns at the start of the 2019/2020 season, but still reported a 9 inch layer of snow on the ground at the mountain base, had multiple days of snowfall in December, January, and February, clearly not rare events, and snow had obviously been expected as there is still a ski resort operating there. Further south there is video from 27 February reporting the first snowfall in London of 2020, which is not accompanied by any voices of amazement, did not attract any widespread acclaim, and zero comments on the youtube video so far. Not the kind of reaction you’d expect to “a rare and exciting event”.
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🙂 🙂
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While you sort this round why not schedule the next pandemic from China:
“…a highly pathogenic bird flu is being reported.” From the Daily Mail, UK https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7987009/Bird-flu-breaks-two-Chinese-provinces-near-coronaviruss-epicentre.html
So what if it’s a bird flu. But it could jump any moment. Please lobby to shut down everything in the West enforced by the military. It’ll make it easier for the Chinese leaders to simply step in.
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Have no fear, the PM is obediently following the chain of command. PM>>>>Chief Medical officer>>>World Health Organisation. Don’t close schools until enough kids are infected, and have taken the infection home to make it worthwhile. After all you must not close them for nothing. Then the Govt can boast that it made the right decision.
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If I may be permitted to keep on the COVID-19 topic, but perhaps go off on a political tangent here.
All of this is a Godsend for Opposition parties, Labor here in Oz, Labour in the UK, and the Democrats in the U.S.
There is absolutely nothing different they could have done would be my perception, and in fact it probably would not have been as (seemingly) draconian, as those oppositions in those three Countries are liberal in nature, so they would have been more PC and touchy feely, not wanting to offend, and you get my drift here.
They (the Opposition here in Oz) have been quieter than usual, naturally, as this is the problem of the party in government, and they just perceive it as ending up an unmitigated disaster for them, so, they will naturally just step in when it’s all over and take over. So they say nothing about it, pretty much thankful now that they did not win at the last election.
However, the problem now is that this will be a truly unmitigated disaster (from an economic point of view) and when the dust has settled, there will be nothing left for them to step in and save us.
There is so much to be cynical about here in all of this, but the overwhelming thing is not the fear of the disease, but it has now become an even larger fear of what it has caused.
There are no winners in all of this, let alone political parties.
I’m pretty much an upbeat ‘glass half full’ person, but at the end of all this, that glass will be empty I’m afraid.
Tony.
If I could be even a little more cynical, perhaps this humourous take is close to the mark.
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You are correct Tony. No matter which party is in power in situations like this the politicians will listen to the bureaucrats and act accordingly, so they (the politicians) have their rear ends covered. Most politicians around the world these days are career politicians –it has been the only significant job, so they will take actions which if they go wrong they can direct the blame elsewhere
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Interesting comment.
The UK government is, so far, taking the scientific approach not panic and the strategy is well founded. If it can hold the line the problem will be minimal. Already, though, things are going in the wrong direction with restaurants, pubs etc. closing and the Chief Medical Officer (in a leaked memo) advising government that the virus will continue to spread through 2021. If we are locked down it will be for at least two years if we listen to such tosh hut the NWO will have won.
The economic recovery problem has nothing to do with the virus and all to do with the hysteria generated by the leftist MSM. Provided government doesn’t buckle and impose a lockdown there will definitely be a recovery but it will take anything from 20 to 50 years.
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“Due to coronavirus outbreak, PM Imran wants world to write off debt for developing nations”
I totally agree it’s not fair that after only five generations of working eight to 10 hour shifts five or six days a week that Australia should be so apparently affluent.
KK
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More from the OffGuardian on how and why this flu is hyped…
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/16/panic-pandemic-why-are-people-who-should-know-better-buying-the-covid19-hype/
Go shopping for what you need now not what you think you will need, walk, drive, fly, attend footy, cross borders, mix, socialise, shake hands, hug. Not that they’ll let you, but have a go…
And be these juggling fiends no more believed,
That palter with us in a double sense.
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“Palter”. What a great word!
“palter
1.
equivocate or prevaricate in action or speech.
“if you palter or double in your answers, I will have thee hung alive in an iron chain”
2.
trifle with.
“this great work should not be paltered with”
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And yet, only one of us has been correct in predicting what would happen with this virus.
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If you can bring yourselves to go to the conversation, this is a vary good article (it must be, it is co-written by an evolutionary geneticist) analysing various data. There are even published papers cited
https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-looks-less-deadly-than-first-reported-but-its-definitely-not-just-a-flu-133526
the title does not really reflect the content well
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Good article, the precautionary principle is writ large and obviously adaptation.
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Thanks Gee Aye. I think the title is appropriate for the content of the article (which is well written, non-speculative and informative with considered conclusions that have a solid scientific basis).
If The Conversation had more content like this, I would feel better about my tax dollars funding the site.
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Thanks Gee Aye.
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Of Man & Machines about PRINCIPLES. And how they are the key to making the complex simple.
In fact, it was the 19th century industrial engineer Harrington Emerson who correctly observed:
“As to methods there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.”
And this ‘lots of methods but few principles’ rule holds true when it comes to decoding complex problems.
and I speak about our grief in the UK too: This infection is like another INVASIVE Species -and we all know how that goes ….Trouble is too, that 1. The Learned folk in the great English universities( Climate change rubbish too) talk about MODELS. Now the British folk are NOT TOYS and this is too serious to be played with – they should have been playing with models when they were Kids – as they truly were – children of GOATS ( stupid animals reference ) 2.We are NOT animals or plants. we do NOT want to be “Back-burned” etc. 3.A Farmer on taking delivery of a load of Infected / contaminated SEED will NOT sow it to contaminate his soil – so why did we keep the gates open without question for one and all. 4. When we had Livestock Diseases ( MadCow & Foot n Mouth), the World isolated US
It is TOO Late to do all that now – but to have to listen to the NONSENSE from ONE & ALL within the EU Community area …., the Contradictions and for the FUTURE – using Public Transport – but we are NOW being told NOT to use anything like that – PLUS “Carbon” emissions from trains n Buses n Planes running EMPTY to timetables – you couldn’t make it up
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I’ve spent a lot of time in Britain and I can confirm that I never met a person who was a toy.
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This is likely VERY IMPORTANT regarding those that want a treatment.
Just read this at the Watts Up With That site:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/
I’d advise you buy up all chloroquine before the Walmart toilet roll shoppers clear the shelves.
Again, what medical professionals should really focus on are treatments like the anti-virals and biochemistry for quickly producing vaccines and testing.
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And there are about 80 different possibles around the world.
The Chinese were talking about Chloroquine in early Feb. Still no conclusive data.
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The major issue I have with the ‘keep the schools open’ excuses is the one that the kids will just congregate together outside of school.
Put a bloody curfew on them then.
24-7 lockdown, they don’t need to hang around the shops, there’s nothing left to buy.
A hundred years ago a generation was sent to charge machine guns and breathe mustard gas and these kids are gonna arc up about being at home with the internet? Let them.
Schools shut, kids indoors, no nanny state crap about arresting people who leave a responsible 12 years old home alone.
Get it done people.
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Well we’ll see if China and South Korea get it right compared to the UK approach.
Nobody has a crystal ball but already anything but providing real goods on the shelves is being smashed into bankruptcy as our Govt scrambles to get the smokestack industries to advise what real medical and preventative supplies they can produce for this pandemic. Do you really want to starve all the hosts to beat this virus or just accept it’s survival of the fittest now?
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The UK position is based on real science not scare mongering and management not panic.
The first daily briefing was an object lesson in cool, calm, explanations of the facts and the strategy which is by far the most sensible there is for us. How long that will last under the leftist political pressure for government control of our lives is another matter.
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Observa, have you read Jo’s previous post. if you have, why didn’t you learn anything from it.
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Correction, did you read this post.
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“It’s un-Australian, and it must stop”; Scott Morrison tells Australians to cease panic buying.
I agree. SO STOP PANIC BUYING! Just buy what you normally need if you have run out of anything. Otherwise, STOP hoarding and acting in a greedy and selfish manner without due consideration for others who are desperately seeking essential items at the stores.
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Good News,
Our Woolworths had toilet paper all day today. One pack (six rolls) per shopper. Most people bought their one pack.
It is one sign that the supply chain is catching up. When supplies are restored panic buying will stop.
Still tissues, kitchen paper, rice, pasta, flour etc.
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I had to go into our local town today. No TP to be seen here when I stopped by the supermarket for milk, eggs and wine(!…priorities dontcha know…sorry, rather facetious there).
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Whoops, moderation.
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Agreed but it is the stores’ fault: they should have restricted purchases from day one.
Here in the UK the supermarkets are today cottoning on to the fact that they have a problem with people walking out with three trolleys stacked high with loo rolls, meat, frozen food or whatever.
Sensible restrictions and special hours for older folks are being introduced today: better late than never. (Forget on line supermarket shopping: it no longer works.)
The panic is deliberately caused by the MSM blowing up this virus out of all proportion for political reasons.
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Latest info out of Italy at 17/03/2020
Not sure how complete the data is.
On the English language infographic ( given the are approx 30,000 cases currently ):
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_17marzo%20ENG.pdf
“98% of the clinical samples processed were confirmed by the National Reference Laboratory at the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Data available only for 11,397 cases
“Median age of cases; 63 years”
“Age (years ) Deaths [n (%)] CFR§
0-9 0 (0%) 0%
10-19 0 (0%) 0%
20-29 0 (0%) 0% 3
0-39 5 (0.2%) 0.3%
40-49 12 (0.6%) 0.4%
50-59 56 (2.8%) 1%
60-69 173 (8.6%) 3.5%
70-79 708 (35.3%) 12.3%
80-89 851 (42.5%) 19.6%
>=90 198 (9.9%) 22.9%
Not reported 0 (0%) 0%
Total 2003 (100%) 7.1%
“*The case definition considers as a confirmed case any person with laboratory confirmation of virus causing COVID-19 infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms https:// http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ case-definition-andeuropean-surveillancehuman-infection-novelcoronavirus-2019-ncov
“*ISS collects data on cases that tested positive for SARS-COV-2 infection diagnosed by all Italian Regions/Autonomous Provinces. Data could differ from aggregated data from the Italian Ministry of Health and the Italian Civil Protection. $The term “health-care worker” is based on the occupation and not on the place of exposure. §Case Fatality Rate
Median
“Produced by: The COVID-19 Task force of the Department of Infectious Diseases and the IT Service Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Thank you. I was just trying to get that exact data myself but that page would not open for me. Ta! – jo
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What the Italian data doesn’t show (none does AFAIK) is the source of the infection: especially the nationality.
It is well known that Italy has a large Chinese tourist group and a surprisingly large number of Chinese living there. Italy is such an outlier that this is at least a likely cause of the high transmission rate.
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All these doomsday death rates are contradicted by the Diamond Princess experience. On that ship there were 3700 people trapped in a virtual human Petri dish of close contact for about a month. It is the only cohort where every single person was tested.
There were 2500 people under the age of 70 on that ship. Not one died. Zero.
The 7 deaths were all over 70 years old, and who knows what pre-existing conditions they had.
Other data:
Despite weeks of close contact, 83% of those aboard (passengers and crew) were not infected.
Half of all those infected (696 tested positive) showed no symptoms at all (this applied to the over-70s as well).
If you normalise the population distribution (allowing for the large excess of people over 70 onboard), then the overall death rate drops to 0.06% (2.3 deaths out of 3700 people).
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Bradd,
As far as we know one sole pax left the boat in HK with the infection. Within 1 or 2 weeks of that, the entire ship was quarantined. Somehow with only that brief exposure (half under supposedly quarantine conditions) that 1 case ended up getting 706 infected or one fifth of the whole cruise ship (plus I think some people in Taiwan too). The death rate was 1% but every person who needed an ICU got one. Presumably if the people were not quarantined or removed and had continued the cruise most of the rest would have got it, and 40 or even 50 people might have died.
Fully 14 of those infected remain in a serious-critical condition a month later.
Far from showing how meek the virus is, it shows what a spectacular success it was.
The one good thing is that the demographics are older on the ship, and that the death rate might be 0.5% in a normal population.
That no one under 70 died, is part luck (small number sample) and be careful how you say it, a rather callous way to say “sacrifice the over 70s – who cares”?
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Everyone no doubt read in The Australian today that the Singapore virology research group has found
the virus in places has mutated where a protein responsible for its virulence, ready transmission,
has disappeared in some of its cases and resulted in a more benign grub.
I am wondering whether a virologist could tell me if this is possible. A Question, not a theory!!
If one was working in a biological warfare lab, having studied the Ebola viruses for 50years, pre and post
human infectivity, would it be possible to
Take a species (non human)specific pathogenic virus.
Manipulate the cells in which one grew it such that the human transmissible feature was added – say by gene snip in the cell.
Add another sequence such that the virus could only undergo so many replications and then the transmitting factor dropped out.
The virus then becomes benign and self limiting.
The aim of war is not total destruction. It is about total control of a desired target. The viruses that have crossed the
species line in the last 30years seem to be slowly increasing in transmissibility and seem to be coming from the same source.
It is reasoned as being the huge and close people – animal contact in some way bringing cross species infectivity.
Adieu?
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There is a 7 to 14 day lag between serious social distancing and seeing the results. Expect 5 to 50 fold increase in infections because of this lag.
Of course the way to stop the growth is to massively ramp up the testing to trap much of the lag. This is what Singapore Taiwan and S. Korea have done.
Social distancing works but it requires detecting and isolating new cases. The undetected lag has been the problem all along.
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All is conjecture without data and this is by far the best.
Datasets are 100% WHO except for one, testing, that WHO doesn’t have. These people are highly respected, to the extent that they have brought the attention of the WHO to errors in their recording and have been thanked. This is a reliable source and the only one worth using.
The interactive graphs are the best source of information on national stats.
Note the down tick in global notifications. Unfortunately, it isn’t clear how much is due to the change in methodology from yesterday. China is the most significant in the global count and its new cases have fallen dramatically which itself probably calls for another category: World excluding China.
If there is a single conclusion that can be drawn from the data it is don’t believe the hysteria from the MSM or anywhere come to that.
Or, as us Poms might put it: don’t panic, Mr. Mainwaring!
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#deaths-from-covid-19
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