A miracle has occurred, climate models which have been plagued with failure and have finally been gifted with The Scientific Truth. Apparently the God of Weather has visited upon Matthew England and others. (We wonder why God didn’t visit earlier, but are grateful for this insight.)
The climate models didn’t predict Antarctic sea ice extent trends. Polar amplification was supposed to mean it would warm twice as fast at the poles, yet inconveniently after years of massive output of CO2 — above the levels assumed in the models — Antarctic sea ice has hit another record high. Finally in the eighth round of making excuses for their excuses, the Scientific Truth has emerged to sweep away the scientific untruths that went before. (After all, climate models couldn’t possibly have been expected to understand heat flow around the planet could they?)
The yellow line shows how much rain Antarctica is stealing and dumping as sea ice. If you turn on your tumble drier the penguins in Antarctica have to walk further.
Ocean winds keep Antarctica cold, Australia dry
Science Daily May 11, 2014Source: Australian National UniversityNew research has explained why Antarctica is not warming as much as other continents, and why southern Australia is recording more droughts. Researchers have found rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are strengthening the stormy Southern Ocean winds which deliver rain to southern Australia, but pushing them further south towards Antarctica.
CO2 is trapping heat all over the planet, but because some of that warming air is also trapped over Antarctica it’s, er, … staying cold. (And if you understand how that works please explain it to me, it sounds like Antarctica has become a reverse cycle air conditioner. Does anyone know what happens to those extra infrared photons in the thieving Antarctic circle?).
“With greenhouse warming, Antarctica is actually stealing more of Australia’s rainfall. It’s not good news — as greenhouse gases continue to rise we’ll get fewer storms chased up into Australia,” Dr Abram said.
“As the westerly winds are getting tighter they’re actually trapping more of the cold air over Antarctica,” Abram said. “This is why Antarctica has bucked the trend. Every other continent is warming, and the Arctic is warming fastest of anywhere on earth.”
This part contains empirical evidence (bravo):
By analysing ice cores from Antarctica, along with data from tree rings and lakes in South America, Dr Abram and her colleagues were able to extend the history of the westerly winds back over the last millennium.
“The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said.
This part is where God helped:
“The strengthening of these winds has been particularly prominent over the past 70 years, and by combining our observations with climate models we can clearly link this to rising greenhouse gas levels.”
Study co-authors Dr Robert Mulvaney and Professor Matthew England said the study answered key questions about climate change in Antarctica.
The miracle of Cause and Effect
Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years. But any form of warming might also cause this to happen. How do we know that high winds in the modern era are due to CO2 and not, say, to natural causes like, ocean current changes, trends in cloud cover, or even the recent grand solar maximum? (Coincidentally, the late 20th Century solar maximum was highest in the last 1,200 years too, see Usiokin, and possibly highest in last 11,500 years, see Vieira 2013.)
We know that natural factors could not have created the faster winds, because The God of Weather hath spoken to Prof Matthew England, Nerilie Abram, Robert Mulvaney and gifted them with the correct assumptions and estimates to finally create Climate Simulations which produce real empirical evidence instead of just calculations.
While no computer simulation has worked before. We are blessed that finally they have got it RightTM.
Soon, for the first time, Climate Model predictions will match the instruments. I can’t wait.
How incredibly fortunate for us that though Climate Modelers have been using the wrong assumptions and estimates for the last 30 years they have been adding up mistakes around the globe and somehow accidentally getting the final conclusions correct all along! Surely God is bountiful and generous, otherwise we might have wasted billions trying to reduce CO2 when it was unnecessary.
[Welcome to The Magical World of Science in 2014. I just can’t take any of them seriously any more – Jo.]
REFERENCES
Nerilie J. Abram, Robert Mulvaney, Françoise Vimeux, Steven J. Phipps, John Turner, Matthew H. England. (2014) Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium. Nature Climate Change; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2235
Ilya G. Usoskin (2008) A History of Solar Activity over Millennia, Living Rev. Solar Phys., 5, (2008), 3 [PDF]
L. E. A. Vieira, S. K. Solanki, N. A. Krivova and I. Usoskin4 (2011) Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene Astronomy & Astrophysics manuscript no. TSIversion08
Previously,we were told, WA’s rainfall problem was caused by particulate matter from Asia seeding clouds before they reached the coast of WA. Does this still apply or has CO2 been the problem all along?
240
Are you saying we could seed more rain if we started more BUSHFIRES?
KK
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Does the same apply for burning tyres?
I have a few ready to go
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Ready to go?
Been burning mining truck tyres in my fire pit for years!
Smoke those babies up.
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Is burning tyres legal in Australia ? It is illegal in the UK.
30
Only if there is a person inside. I think. No doubt though that some local governments would hassle you for pollution issues.
10
Hey Scaper,
If you have a decent supply, maybe you could start up a website where people pay you to burn a tyre in response to the carbon tax anniversary or when people get cold called from solar power companies.
Maybe you’re missing out on an opportunity here?
60
Could you then claim Carbon Credits by not burning tyres?
Like the other carbon scams you could promise not to burn a tyre for $XXX.
60
No, no, no, You may keep burning the tyres, but leave the carbon credit
scamscheme to my tree planting projects. I have left it a bit late to start, but I needed a proper Government in charge so my marketing and sales were going to be positive. Unlike other tree plantingscamsschemes that went bust.10
What is your source for this nonsense.
Just how do you imagine particulates from Asia would get to a place that could affect WA rainfall?
14
Damn that Antarctic… locking up all that rain as ice!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-levels/story-e6frg8y6-1226913708208#
(Paywalled – use Google search etc)
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Well it seems to be releasing it now
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27381010
14
–
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/12/antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-levels/#more-109023
–
–
Awful, isn’t it Brian!!!!?
00
What we need is some global warming, to melt all that ice, & give us back our rain.
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Don’t worry too much, I have a plan to bring all the melted ice back to where it’s needed most using this outstanding new product.
10
My theory (which is mine and belongs to me) is that the map of the World is upside down.
If you had the Arctic on the bottom, then you could well see that hot air rises.
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FINALLY A realist!!!
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Interestingly, I have a curious little picture in a Word file where the world does appear to be upside down, but isn’t. If I could figure out a way to post it for you, I would; it would be even better if I could remember where I found it, so that the artist could get due and proper credit.
40
Here is the map:
Piri Reis map of Antarctica – Antarctica ice free!
Explanations include:
The map is orientated with antarctic as ‘north’.
Speculated that this infers magnetic poles were reversed.
(Also read the Oronteus Finaeus map Antarctica ice free! article related to this)
“There are also maps showing Greenland as two separated islands, as it was confirmed by a polar French expedition which found out that there is an ice cap quite thick joining what it is actually two islands.”
10
No, sorry, not that one. It is a modern depiction, in what we recognise as standard, and is a fascinating view of the Earth – and has to make you wonder if it could have been an “accident”.
Found it some time ago on t’interweb, before I started noting things such as where I found it.
10
This site has the world the correct way up
http://www.flourish.org/upsidedownmap/
00
Nutshell:
CO2 has been the problem all along. First it was warming the planet, except not as fast as the computer models predicted. That was solved by deciding it was warming the deep oceans – that was another computer model.
When it turned out that the evidence for any warming in the deep ocean was null, void, deceased etc., there was another computer model which says the missing heat was going to Antarctica.
When somebody queried how extra heat in the Antarctic could mean record ice shelf area, there was another computer model to say it was evaporating the rain before it could get to WA. As soon as you get a flood there will be another computer model “proving” it is due to rising CO2 levels.
So far the only successful prediction has been “rising CO2 levels will cause an increase in the numbers of computer models”.
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🙂 🙂 🙂
priceless!
Thanks Graeme No.3
I needed a good laugh 🙂
So far the only successful prediction has been “rising CO2 levels will cause an increase in the numbers of computer models”.
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Excellent. The most accurate model of reality.
New evidence contradicts models. New explanation is thought up. Same cause (CO2) is identified. (Multiple accepted scientific principles and common sense violated.) Go to “New evidence contradicts models”.
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It is a constant source of amazement to me just how quickly the settled science changes in it’s pursuit of Irritable Climate Syndrome.( H/T WUWT). I’ve just finished reading THIS at ACM, http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=10 , a bar chart courtesy of your BoM showing quite clearly that drought conditions have eased markedly since 1950, the latest revised year that Man’s malign influence was made manifest upon a defenceless Gaia. Hitherto, the Warmist scam has relied upon everyone being on message. It would appear that Church discipline is breaking down.
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Kevin,
You are absolutely correct in your statement above.
Imagine, if you can, the absolute QUANDARY the warmists are in.
Some professor/university/warmist whatever says something or produces a paper that then leads to an assumption.
Then, some other warmist from somewhere else on the planet releases another paper that blows the first paper out of the water (sometimes within hours).
Then another, then another etc etc etc.
Imagine if you can how they must HATE the release of a new BS paper that shoots the tripe out of one they’ve just released.
Sheesh – the phones must run really hot some days.
If they could only tell the TRUTH and stop BULLSH…ing they MAY gain some credibilty.
They’d gain even more credibility if they simply told the truth and said, “You know what? The models aren’t really telling us anything and are not matching the empirical data so we should be VERY cautious about ANY assumptions we make”
Oh, for a perfect world!!
Cheers,
290
This is just a rehash of the same old with added computerized we got it Right Honest!™ feature enabled.
All Prof. England et al want anyone to take away is
It’s the evil CO2 wot donnit and nothing else.
After all there not much riding on this, just his gravy-train funding.
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Of course this new data they haven’t cherry-picked to suit the message or the new improve climate model (with Finite Probablity Driver™© installed.)
No it’ll be all very verifiable (almost infinitely), really, Honest™.
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tomomason,
How can tree ring and lake data reveal the history of the westerly winds back over the last millennium?
Am I missing something here, is there like dirt accumulation being battered into the trunks that is revealed in the tree rings. Or maybe Tim Flannery did the analysis?
“After all there not much riding on this, just his gravy-train funding.”
SO TRUE
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The wind speed is directly related to how far the trees travelled through the air to the lake, and how deep they impact into the mud in the lake bed.
Please note I was writing a paper about the correlation of atmospheric CO2 increase and the rise in AGW related grant application approvals – but no one will fund me.
🙁
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Ah, but if you don’t know the starting point of the uprooted tree, your calculations are useless “models”.
Other than that, who the %&($@ could measure wind speed 1000 yrs ago.
30
Don’t you know? I am glad to fill you in on this.
Every climate computer model has “fudge factors” incorporated into their models.
From this, a Climate Scientist just simply selects the fudge factor applicable to her/his thesis and Bob’s your Auntie’s live-in-lover.
Glad to have been able to shed some light onto “climate computer models”.
10
Do you mean the Infinite Improbability Drive? That would explain everything. Climate models are based on Bistromathics!
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No as research on it keeps running into problems.
The Finite Probability Drive reacts badly with the pseudo random Brownian motion activator (aka a cup of weak instant lemon tea) and forming brown-holes (like black-holes but these don’t suck!).
Scientist have emailed from their tropical Caribbean Island beach ‘lab’ to say that with a little more funding they believe that this technicality can be iron out.
Some are not so sure (or is that shore?)
10
Professor England research proudly sponsered by…
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Err! What was the funding grant for “science”[ ? ] worth ?
And what funding conditions were attached to this “science”[ ? ] ? .
171
Just reading through the list of to be scrapped agencies… anyone who wonders about the relative efficiency of government spending just has to look at the title of some of the agencies and committees to answer that question (again Google to bypass):
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/budget-2014/axe-to-fall-on-70-federal-agencies/story-fnmbxr2t-1226913908274
A couple of our favourites in there:
But then the real interesting ones:
I am scratching my head on these ones … is the first represented by Antarctic animal reps? A sort of Happy Feet meets Animal Farm?
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I think more like barking mad.
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I’m sorry Graeme, but you can’t use that term. “Barking Mad” is the moniker of Gregory Barker, a Minister of State at the Department of Energy & Climate Change in the UK
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Phillip Bratby:
I’ve several times called his boss Ed Davey a looney for his desperation to bankrupt the UK with useless wind turbines. Tell me, what can I describe him as now?
20
“Antarctic Animal Ethics Committee” Scrapped.
Oh no. How are we going to deal with unethical Antartic animals now?
180
Can someone look that up? ARC Funding for this project? Please
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For which project?
I was browsing around and found one of Andy Pitman’s cash cows:
https://www.climatescience.org.au/
Almost $5 million a year of which almost $3.5 million is ARC funded:
http://www.climatescience.org.au/content/721-annual-report-2013
You have to go deep into the pretty annual report to find the numbers.
50
BD,
You have no idea of how far this stupid goes, the green loons have their fingers in many pies especially in Woomera and lets not forget the aboriginies, would you believe there are some sections where female techs/scientists cannot go due to abbo rules?
If we need a few ton of rubble we cant get it from around woomera no way we have to truck it up from Pt Augusta this is just the tip of the iceberg and its not so much the cost of running these stupid departments its the cost they cause others to bear.
20
Sounds like you guys needed the National Alternative Dispute Resolution Advisory Council … with that abolished what will you do???
10
I dont think that would even help, when you have to truck in sand to fill sand bags in a desert you know things have gone awry dont you.
00
They’ll need it as they also lose –
‘Advisory Panel on Positive Ageing’.
Whatever that is (was)!
Positive aging as opposed to negative aging.
Liposuction, botox, chakra realignment, and yoga by government mandate?
10
There are a couple of tragic axings:
O’Farrell will be mourning that to be sure … and Buswell, no doubt.
00
You may be interested in this little news snippet.
Filed under:
I wonder if taxpayers will notice the slightest difference – other than an easing of the government’s grip on their wallets:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/here_comes_abbotts_axe/
10
Closest I’ve found is very broad funding 2010 thro’ 2011 for many ARC projects
http://www.arc.gov.au/ncgp/ssf/SSF1011_selrpt.htm
00
Is there NO supervision at the Universities emitting this rubbish?
Are there no standards?
An appalling level of scientific awareness, discipline and probity is being shown in this material which continues the downward spiral of “science” to the realms of darkness where politics is reigns absolutely.
KK
310
And it’s in Nature Climate Change.
70
The Science is Settled!!!
So how is it that they have to keep reimagining (do you like that, quite proud of it me) the causal mechanisms…
60
The Science is far from settled, because this little gem is what New Yorkers are being fed today. Somebody has gone off-script.
60
That sounds the same situation as the “ice-plug” story I read last week.
It’s great that we were alerted so quickly:
In a further sign that no matter what happens it’s all our fault, and hypotheses that continually change their predictions apparently without ever being disproven now qualify as both ‘settled’ and ‘science’, the NYT gives us this slap in the face:
I guess NASA didn’t get the memo:
Which implies a reduction in the equator-pole difference.
I have to disagree with you here. This NYT piece is still on the same old script: Send more money.
20
I have often linked to this Antarctic Connection site, and it has just so much information there. The link takes you to the Weather Page, which is one of the links on the Top Menu Bar there. At each of those Menu links are even further links at each new page, so you can quite easily lose yourself with the information there. There are also further links on that linked weather page down the right side under the heading Weather Pages as well.
Along that top menu bar is a link to the Science page, which again, has a large amount of good information.
Now, while we know that Antarctic Ice represents 90% of the World’s Ice, and 70% of the World’s fresh water, there are a number of things we may not be aware of. While almost 98% of the Continent is covered by ice, some of it almost 5 kilometres thick, ice spreads outward from the Continent, all of this sea ice, subject to Archimedes Principle. What is perhaps little known is that where that sea ice ends, and meets the water, it can be anything up to 300 Metres thick, and imagine if you can just how thick that really is. 300 Metres from water to the top of the solid ice. That sea ice thickens considerably the closer to the land mass it gets, and again, imagine that, and just how difficult it would be to just break off, considering the water is actually assisting to keep it in place, no matter what the incredible weight must be.
Just the Ice Pack itself, that already floating broken off ice also has a vast extent:
Here we now are in May of this year and the extent is still over 6 million square kilometres.
Now, why I mention this is to relate it back to the alleged warming.
Mean Summer temperatures range from Minus 5 to Minus 31. Having said that, that figure of Minus 5 is at the edges, so any rise in global overall temperature would only have an effect on the already floating Sea Ice, because at the edge of the Continent, any 2 to even worst case 5 degree per Century rise would not even bring that ice even close to the point where it would melt at all in Mid Summer, taking perhaps 600 or more years, (at the worst case 5C rise) and still, this is ice at the edge, not further back on the Continent itself
Antarctica will remain as it always has, an unimaginably humungous amount of ice that in fact is only increasing on the Continent itself.
There is just so much information at this site, which should effectively aid you in any discussion with those who have this CAGW religious belief.
Tony.
390
Al Gore was right all along – it certainly is inconvenient…
200
Jo, this is science … why are you not treating it seriously?
Yeah, yeah I know. You would treat it seriously if it was serious science …
As someone else said in a comment I read somewhere – this is not post-normal science it is goalpost-normal science. If those pesky observations do not fit the theory, change the goalposts and pretend you were right all along.
260
I think everybody is missing the obvious correlation:
Antarctica is the coldest place on earth, and getting colder. How many computer models are run on supercomputers located in Antarctica? Coincidence? I think not.
250
How many computer models are run on supercomputers located in Antarctica
RW – none as the Penguins have become unionised and there is not enough incentive [read kickbacks] to make it worthwhile.
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Besides, if they went to antarctica, they would get stranded on a boat and need to be rescued.
The penguins are still laughing after the last attempt.
250
Methinks that the penguins may need to become onionised.. and grow an extra skin!
Its f*****g cold down there !!!
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Oh look , I have a trailing red thumb.. who obviously disagrees with my post,
and therefore thinks its WARM in Antarctica.
Hi, idiot !!! 🙂
Is your name Chris, by any chance ?
163
Or maybe Philip.
134
You want an upward trend, putz?
.. just look at Antarctic sea ice levels,
now there’s an upward trend 🙂
223
What’s the difference between “gifted” and “gave”?
120
Here’s an example that should help to explain –
He was a gifted gift giver who gave gifts of his gift to all that gave.
80
She sells sea shells by the sea shore.
30
Answer: satire.
101
Others have noted this but here again so-called climate scientists and commentators are increasingly omitting the intermediate step in logically connecting rising CO2 > increasing temperature > whatever climate variation they claim to have observed.
There has been no apparent trend in rainfall or more droughts over Southern Australia over the past 70 years which have been wetter than the previously.
The Arctic appears to be repeating the warming of the ‘30s before human fossil fuel burning could have been a significant factor.
150
OK, educate me. Since most of the excessive CO2 is generated in the NH, how does it cross the equator to get to Antarctica? (Ocean currents?) And, with the NH circumpolar vortex erupting southward in the winter, warming the Arctic, why doesn’t something similar happen down south? Having never been south of the Equator, I assume weather would work somewhat similarly.
00
Its the Sun wot dun it! It is solar activity affecting the site of formation and destruction of ozone that causes changes in sea surface pressure in the Southern Ocean and hence the movement of the Southern Jet Stream that is of importance and CO2 has no role in this.
Here is a comment I made earlier in the year at this site referring to a 2011 paper by Earl Happ that that covers the topic in detail:
According to this paper by Erl Happ, cyclonic activity in Australia is apparently determined by the movement in sea surface pressure back and forth between 60-90 S and 30-40S S :
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2011/09/19/climate-disaster-declining-rainfall-rising-sea-levels/
‘The loss of pressure at 60-70° south and the gain at 30-40° south enhances the pressure differential driving the westerly winds with the effect of:
• Enhancing the flow of the circumpolar current, driving water northwards along the western coasts of the southern continents and raising sea levels as it does so and indeed across the global ocean to the north. Sea level falls in the Southern Ocean, the largest expanse of ocean world-wide.
• Reducing the northward penetration of the polar lows that form on the margins of Antarctica that are responsible for frontal rainfall as they meet humid tropical air traveling southwards.’
This movement is linked to changes in solar activity acting through a combination of changes in UV flux and wavelength and solar proton flux that determine the site and extent of heating of the stratosphere:
http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/06_projekter/isac/wp501b.pdf
120
Sorry but your second
http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/06_projekter/isac/wp501b.pdf
link is in error –
40
Antarctica has always been at war with Eurasia.
120
What an absolute load of frog shit.
Here’s my tip and you can put your house on it.
Those antarctic blasts we in the southern states cop on a regular cycle during winter are going to be whole lot colder.
I’m tipping some pretty heavy snow dumps on the alps this winter.
Some highly credentialed global warmists scientific “experts”are going to be made to look pretty ordinary at the end of winter.
Think about it .
Winter hasn’t started yet and already ice records in Antarctica are being smashed.
Lows moving up from down south this winter will highly likely be exceptionally nasty this winter.(real bloody cold)
If mainland Australia cops it , spare a thought for tassie.
Damn that global warming.
111
With ya Leigh, already had a couple of heavy frosts in the Southern Tablelands and had to light the old fire about a month ago. Now we haven’t done that this early for about 35 years so we are probably in for a cold winter.
101
Leigh the logic behind your prediction is flawed. If Antarctic ice grows it increases the temperature gradient between Antarctica and Australia. This increases the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean which strengthens and contracts the polar vortex. A contracting polar vortex will not allow fronts to reach Australia on a regular basis.
00
I thought that it was the other way around. The vortex determines the magnitude of the westerlies. The more ice suggests a contracted vortex so the westerlies should be weaker?
00
I should add that the important proton flow in this effect is linked to the 22 year solar magnetic cycle but that the effect at the Earth’s surface is also affected by the Lunar Saros cycle as described in detail by E. M. Smith / Chiefio and in this video by Piers Corbyn:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6R26PXRrgds
120
Could someone please explain how wind speed and direction can be measured from 1000 year old proxy samples?
60
A recent greenland study looked at elements like sodium which were markers for ocean salt. The faster the wind blows from the ocean the more salt…
60
Or the sea could just have been getting saltier.
30
Hi Jo
I have a M.Sc degree in Palaeobiology and I’m having difficulty in understanding how past wind speed and position can be found from ice cores and tree rings. I had a look at the Greenland article you mentioned but that seems to be more about storm activity bringing higher levels of Na, Ca & Fe onto the ice sheet.
I know that chemical analysis of ice cores can produce useful information on past ocean conditions such as sea levels, pH etc. but how have circum-polar westerly winds been dumping Na etc. in the interior of the Antarctic continent where the ice in these cores had originally formed? It also seems to me that if the winds had shifted closer to the continent, as suggested, then increases in these chemical markers would occur without the need for an increase in wind speed i.e. more energy in the system.
As for tree rings you need a huge sample size from lots of different locations in order to get even a rough idea of some past event. What was the sample size used in this case and why not data from Tasmania where there are plenty of trees older than 800 years? Sure growth rates may be affected by changes in wind patterns but as I say lots of samples from lots of places would be needed in order to make valid conclusions, especially for changes of this magnitude that would have widespread effects not limited to South America.
The authors of this paper seem to have set out with a pre-determined outcome and surprise, surprise found what they were looking for. Is it science? Well probably what we expect from climate “scientists” these days.
92
Don, you may be right. I have not read the paper. My comments come merely from the logical errors in the abstract and press release. I assume that there was some acceptable method for making the claim on windspeed, but I could be convinced that is junk science too…
22
The rest of the paper must be a nightmare, if anyone was to bother reading it (want a copy?).
Is this what passes for scientific criticism these days?
22
Thanks for the reply Jo. Same here, I only read the abstract as I don’t have the $260 or whatever to subscribe to Nature to see the full paper. They may have found evidence of a real natural phenomenon because they suggest this started in the 1500s. I would have thought that increasing wind speeds would be a natural result as the planet warmed after the medieval cold period. More heat = more energy = higher wind speed. The problem is their desperation to link the findings to the failed CO2 models.
I’d bet that their grant application included an intention to do just that and in their enthusiasm they have overplayed it. I remember back in my post-grad days in 2002 our professors were advising us when applying for research grants to mention something about climate change, even if the proposed research had nothing to do with it, in order to improve our chances of getting the grant. They advised us to make passing mention of climate change in the last paragraph of our papers to satisfy the conditions of the grant. These guys seems to have more than mentioned it, perhaps with an eye towards their next grant application? Or because of their political/spiritual belief in it?
Makes me wonder how many of these climate research papers may have useful scientific findings hidden under shonky, half baked conclusions?
11
Antarctic Animal Ethics Committee
Chaired by Professor Turney on a recent visit perhaps?
I love models. Years ago in another existence a bright young thing presented a model which showed we could reduce traffic congestion in cities by banning cars. We initially thought it was a joke but he was serious and had been well paid by a left leaning “gummint” to produce the presented rubbish. Started me on the long road of model scepticism – for which I am writing a model if I can get the funding.
210
I read this article out at work,
1. Basically that CO2 is causing warming
2. This heating forces more winds south
3. The southern winds caused by heating by CO2 forces storms South too
4. These storms dump rain on the Antarctic that freezes and the ice increases
5. That heating CO2 problem results now in less rain in southern Australia
6. That heating CO2 problem also results in extreme heat events here
7. Basically Australia is in a mess, the ice will increase forever and we will freeze to death
8. All because of this CO2 super heating of the globe.
I had 15 bits of rubbish chucked at me.
The average Aussie is sick to death of the Wombat Poo pouring out of these idiots
When will common sense prevail, and these grants stopped.
Green Greedy fruitloops
331
Dave,
“When will common sense prevail, and these grants stopped.”
In Australia – hopefully following tomorrow nights budget release where I suspect (and hope) the majority of these rubbish, do nothing departments will meet their belated end.
Cheers,
190
I can see we need a new ‘Ship of Fools’ containing Professor England and his team to investigate the reality of his modeled world.
200
I don’t think pirates travel that far south, but all that grant money for the taking AARRRRR…..
230
Arrrgghhh. Shiver me timbers.
…or is “shivered timbers” another proxy for wind speed?
60
I think I saw that movie, it had Keanu Reeves in it.
50
Winds are now the default position of the clueless AGW scientists. Maybe England’s winds are the same winds which Trenberth relied on to send the missing heat to the ocean bottom. Those winds are not happening.
As for England’s winds; apparently global winds are declining, a process called stilling.
You couldn’t make this stuff up.
211
I wonder what Professor England would make of all the UK warming –
http://daedalearth.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/image-299.png
Lots of warming in the UK eh?
Britain not caught in some ‘heat trapping we’re all gonna roast unless you freeze in the Antarctic’ CO2 mediated nightmare.
100
“The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said.
–
This has a very ‘Joelle Gergis’ ring to it.
Perhaps Steve Mac. or Jean S. might like to scrutinise the data, with particular focus on de-trending!
130
““The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said.”
Yeah like.. PROVE that !!
Or just MAKE IT UP !!!!!
182
There was a plan to carve chunks of ice off Antarctica, to irrigate Australia. Time to revisit it perhaps?
http://www.freedrinkingwater.com/water_quality/quality1/13-08-icebergs-for-drinking-water.htm
100
My earlier comment at #2.2.1 provides the mechanism for just such a plan … a Water Tow.
10
And the ABC Science parroted this lovely little story – check Facebook – and of course the learnered all say wow!! – those that questioned it were called morons and the rest plod along oblivious. I tried to respond once to these pro AGW postings and got so pissed off I deleted my account. I just made some comment that a warmer world would mean better plant growth – nothing about C02 – just warmer means plants grow better – that’s why your grass grows quicker in spring and summer. Again nothing about C02. So I get shot down – they post sceptical science links. I counter post to those links – they get all narky because I had counter arguments. They just wont listen to the alternative when it challenges their little meme. Read the comment from Fred Bartlett – If climate change is mankind induced, then those that supported the denial should be hauled before the courts and face crimes against humanity and the planet. IF he says IF WTF
170
And IF climate change (which incidentally is just NOT HAPPENING at the moment) is not mankind induced, then all those who have profited and supported it or WORSHIPPED it, will have all the worldly trapping removed from them, and be sent to live in caves in outer Mongolia or upper Siberia
(or to Canberra or inner Melbourne.)
172
More likely to be Canberra with the ACT government push to have 90% renewable energy at some time in the future, except that they want to sequester part of NSW to erect their wind turbines because they don’t want them anywhere near the pristine landscapes of the ACT.
That is an achievable target though by the time the 90% renewables is operating in Canberra most everyone will have joined the exodus across the border to Goulburn and the couple of Canberrans left would easily live off a car battery and a couple of solar panels which by that time still qualifies as fulfilling the 90% renewables pledge.
80
There is no simple way to make these global warmists look at what is actually happening at the minute.
But there is one sure fire way to alter the only “picture” they look at.
Cut of the funding to the fraudsters that continue to pump out this fertilizer as science.
Every time nature comprehensively slaps them down.
They come up with another totally implausible reason as to why they have still got it right and their collective “science is settled click” nod their heads.
I mean really.
An honest person couldn’t look in the mirror and make the statements these alarmists make with out feeling some sort of personal embarrassment.
But they do on a daily basis with out fail.
71
Just on fraudsters repenting when evidence to the contrary becomes overwhelming.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/08/Leading-climate-scientist-defects-no-longer-believes-in-the-consensus
30
The poor catastrafarians,
Even the winds are out to get them. The conspiracy against a command economic system continues.
They’ll be blaming the kick brothers for putting some fans down there to stir up the wind next. Putin would probably agree that america must be involved as well.
130
oh what a winding road! That was a good bit of `settled science’ that was! I enjoyed it immensely. I especially loved that high speed U-turn, without even looking nor a blush of embarrassment!
If only we could take them out and strap them onto the Polar See Saw. It’s been going for millennia. It’s why Antarctica chills when the Arctic warms and vice versa. None of these authors seem to have heard of it, so they must to be introduced to it.
It could rev this farce up some more and maybe make it even more entertaining.
Oops. More popcorn required. Hmm beer stocks are OK. Bye.
140
Poor Matthew England, I doubt even his mother believes him.
TOO MANY LIES !!!!
172
Guess what, southern OZ has been drying out for at least the last 5,000 years.
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1848641.htm
Prof Patrick De Deckker’s 20 year study across southern OZ showed that severe droughts and some higher rainfall periods were the norm over many thousands of years.
Read the transcript or watch the video and see the rainfall graphs at the above link.
60
They’re also blinder than bats! If they’d just paid a bit more attention they would have realised the rain hadn’t gone to Antarctica at all. It’s all descended on NZ’s South Island. Christchurch has flooded three times in almost as many months. The citizens are saturated and fed up, and it isn’t even the rainy season yet!
If you guys ‘n girls really want that rain back, Christchurch would be keen as mustard for you to have it back!
170
Must be a bit of continental drift going on around South Australia … this needs funding for research … move over Tasmania (it’ll become another coastal island off the NZ South Island soon.
70
Don’t even think about it , we have enough green idiots over here as it is we don’t need that crowd as well.
80
Not just green idiots Fred – mass murderers as well at no extra cost. Offset by some good red wines which raises the question regarding whether wine making is responsible for green idiots and mass murderers.
10
By combining observations of the stars at night and clouds during the day I can now predict that just about anything I say will make headlines …. if only I can get research funding and some gullible/free content trawling journalists to listen to me.
110
It is somewhat amusing to look at the first panel of illustrations on “Regional temperature histories” in England’s abstract as provide through Jo’s headline post [ Nature Climate Change; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2235 ] where the whole of Antarctica other than the Antarctic Peninsula is shown as having an apparent strong cooling trend. The antarctic Peninsula has had a significant warming trend but the rest of the Antarctica continent [ 1.8 times the size of Australia ] over the last half century has had a very slight declining trend in temperatures.
Then take a look at Eric Steigs paper of 2012 where a huge ballyhoo surrounded his claim that the whole of Antarctica was showing a significant warming trend put down of course to anthropogenic CO2 induced global warming .
The Real Climate post by Stieg [The heat is on in West Antarctica; dec 2012 ] keeps right on promoting this dogma
Further it seems that these results of England et al as seems apparent from the abstract are derived from climate models.
Skeptics across the board including climate science luminaries such as Judith Curry, Roy Spencer, Pielke Sr . the german’s Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Richard Toll, a now very disillusioned and thoroughly p### ed off IPCC lead author plus a quickly increasing mass of climate scientists of some standing are now starting to deride the climate models as basically totally useless and much worse, totally misleading as far as the science is concerned let alone the disastrous public policies that have flowed from the outcomes of the climate modellers efforts.
What I would be very interested in in regard to England’s claims of increasing wind velocities due to the SAM becoming more positive , ie drifting closer to the Antarctic continent over the last thousand years is the log book records of the ships of Dutch East Indies Company that used the winds of the Roaring Forties between 35S and 40S for a fast passage from the Cape Town in what is now South Africa to a guessed at longitude after sailing east about 1000 Dutch sea miles they turned north for Batavia in the spice Islands [ Indonesia today ]
This frast sailing route to the spice Islands using the Roaring Fortiees was pioneered around 1610.
A time piece accurate and robust enough to use at sea for the calculation of longitude was only invented by the Englishman John Harrison around 1740.
It was the first of the Marine Chronometers.
It would be interesting if possible to compare the surface wind speeds in the Roaring Forties back in the 1600’s and today and also the latitudes of highest speed wind tracks and if they have changed in latitude in the 400 years since those first Dutch sailors used the Roaring Forties.
There may be no detectable connections between the SAM and the surface winds of the Roaring Forties but as the SAM has some influence over the latitudes the fronts and troughs and weather systems as they traipse across the Southern Ocean to our south it seems highly likely there is quite a strong connection between the SAM. it’s latitudinal location and the tracks of the major wind velocities in the Roraring Forties.
Those old Dutch sailor’s log books might just tell a very different and far more accurate story on the SAM ‘s movements and trends than does any climate modelller and his play station climate computer.
And I know who I would place more trust in, a guy who is massaging data to fall into a preordained line so as to ensure that his funding sources are secure for the future or an old craggy, hard as nails Dutch ship captain and navigator who if he blows his navigation log will finish up very dead along with his crew.
90
The trend shows that southern OZ has received more rainfall over the last 113 years. Of course the longer trend is for lower rainfall ( see above) and SWWA has dropped off in the last 50 years.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=saus&season=0112&ave_yr=T
81
You may wish to look at Paul Homewood’s site for his take on rainfall and droughts in Australia, and he’s using some strange verifiable method that real ‘climate scientist’ don’t use.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/05/11/australias-droughts-decreasing-contrary-to-warmists-claims/
90
This is an interesting link as well.
http://home.iprimus.com.au/foo7/droughthistory.html
82
You are so right, Neville.
The report notes ‘Southern Australia’ and the ‘last few decades’ (if they had only said SW Aust they may have a case using the data).
I ran the figures for Southern Australia for a 30 year period from 1924-1953 – 366mls/year average.
For the 30 year period from 1984-2013 – 398mls/year average.
So around 30mls/year more over 60 years. How do they get away with this crap?
I think they forgot to print the old modification – ‘since the 1970s’ – usually printed somewhere at the bottom of the report.
90
Imagine if they were better funded, then they wouldn’t make such fools of themselves. Nah, couldn’t see this … ok, imagine then if their funding was severely curtailed … then they wouldn’t be able to make such fools of themselves.
I reckon tomorrow the Budget might just help them stop making fools of themselves.
101
If they were better funded then their reports would be glossy magazine printed with photos, and available on the top shelf with all the other ‘research’ material.
00
Of course Globull Warming will cause more draughts in Australia. We know this for sure because during the last ice age when the climate in Australia was a lot colder it was also a lot drier while during the previous interglacial when it was a bit warmer than now it was also much wetter (and Lake Eyre was a permanent lake).
This might seem a bit confusing at first, but the magical effects of CO2 actually makes the climate work backwards. So there, now we have fixed that.
70
By the way, has nobody struck on the idea that cutting down most of the forest in SW Australia and converting it to wheatfields might have something to do with increasing dryness? It has been known for centuries that it rains more in forested areas.
180
tty,
Now you’re just displaying some rationalistic logic. Be careful, you might actually deduce a truth from it.
They might find that the landslips might be related to the deforestation as well – just saying….
Like many of the others here…..
100
Prof. Mathew England has a problem with wind.
Scientists say stronger than normal winds in the Pacific are the explanation for a pause in global warming
“The study found that the winds were churning the Pacific like a washing machine, bringing the deeper colder water to the surface and pushing the warmer water below.
But University of New South Wales (UNSW) researcher Matthew England, part of the team which carried out the research, said he did not expect the effect to last.”
. . .
Phew!
That’s settled.
100
“said he did not expect the effect to last.””
Oh thank goodness.
Its darn scary to think that the Antarctic ice expansion might to start to force some Tasmanians, and especially some of their politicians, back to the mainland !!!
112
Anybody with that Stimpy pic for an avatar should be very careful about making wind jokes …
90
So a choppy sea surface can cause extreme, dangerous heat to dive into the deep, deep depths of the oceans? I’m amazed.
I’m no scientist but even I can see this is nonsense.
60
UPDATE!
Quote (above) Prof. Mathew England, 10 Feb 2014:
“The study found that the winds were churning the Pacific like a washing machine,
bringing the deeper colder water to the surface and pushing the warmer water below.
Scientists say stronger than normal winds in the Pacific are the explanation for a pause in global warming.”
~ ~ ~
Monash Uni, 9 May 2014
Tropical Pacific “sweet spot” partly responsible for Arctic warming
“Crucially it indicates that global warming caused by carbon dioxide emissions may not be the only factor responsible.
An international team of scientists estimate that up to half of the recent global warming in Greenland is caused by natural climate variations.”
. . .
So, to attempt to summarise the latest ‘settled science’:
The warming has been ‘blown’ into the deep pacific oceans, causing a ‘pause’.
This natural occurring ‘pause’ has caused man made global warming in the arctic, with Greenland melting.
Meanwhile, man made emissions are causing the winds, to ‘tighten’ in the antarctic, thereby causing the the antarctic to get colder.
Of which, 50% is natural variation.
And only a tax on carbon(sic) will stop this.
I’m convinced. Where do I pay?
I also like to lick windows.
70
Prof. Mathew England has a problem with wind
Send him a packet of antacid powders. Might help.
10
Perhaps Prof England is mixing up his ‘winds’. He is clearly refering to extra flatulence that CO2 brings. He should try drinking large amounts of gas bubbly coke and find out what happens. There could be extra grant money if he proposes a study to see if flatulence is more severe in warm or cold conditions.
Perhaps increased farting is caused by global warming and as the earth warms flatulant humans and other mammals will contribute even more greenhouse gas. We are all doomed!
50
I’m happy to announce a great start to the grain growing season in WA. Excellent early May rains have growers in the central and southern wheat-belt — areas from which I’ve heard reports — off to a great start, ‘ripping up’ and ‘seeding’.
I heard this latest bit of ecoprop on ABC radio this morning. The ABC love to drop the latest tabloid research from Nature Climate first thing on a Monday morning.
130
Not ecoprop. This is solid, sensible, real-world information. I have relatives who are farming in a dry part of WA. They have had hard times lately but now they have had rain, which means they might make some decent income this year.
I love rain — the sound and the smell of it. Rain brings life to the land. I have lived in droughts for most of my life and I love rain.
70
This news is more economic than ecological.
60
Sorry I wasn’t clear. My first point was that I’m happy that the people I grew up with are having a good start to the season. This I know from talking to people. My second point — about the warmist Antarctica excuse ecoprop — had nothing to do with the first, except that this year is not a drought so far. Yes I love rain too.
10
South Australia can have some of the rain that we are having in the lower south island NZ, 105 mm in 6 days now i wonder why the wind doesn’t affect us the same. The only place that has been a tad dry has been eastern north island which is nothing unusual.
100
Hi everyone sorry for being off topic here but the ABC has just been caught being biased and I just wanted to let everyone know. Here’s the link
ABC Catalyst program on cholesterol biased, says review.
Its amazing what all that Drug Company money can do to get the ABC caught showing its true colours now isn’t it. What a a shame we don’t have all those Big Oil Dollars to do the same for the ABC’s bias on Climate Change and other Big Green issues hey. What a shame.
90
“The results show that “the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed to a level where even small increases in temperature can now lead to a big increase in summer ice melt,” said Dr. Abram in a prepared statement.”
This basically says it all:
“Between 1992 and 2011, the peninsula lost ice at rate of 20 billion tons a year, according to a study published last November in the journal Science. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet lost 65 billion tons a year, and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet – the continent’s largest – lost 14 billion tons a year, although the uncertainties in that number are so large the loss could just as well have been nothing.”
source: Antarctic ice tells conflicting story about climate change’s role in big melt
81
So they are basically saying global warming isn’t global its regional and, despite a consistent increase in the Antarctic ice sheet, its losing ice.
Where is the CO2 link to regional pressure changes which drive the winds which eat the ice… [that Jack built]?
101
The BOM is doing a nice job with their website.
Australian climate variability & change – Time series graphs: Annual Rainfall – Australia (1900-2013)
60
We can’t have the BoM doing that. They need to be told to take those facts down – or adjust them to fit with the Bible of Gaia and her disciples.
Take some screen shots now for future reference. They’ll be collectors’ items.
50
Perhaps they are getting nervous about budget cuts and are now displaying their impartiality 🙂
10
“Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years”.
Really? How do does anyone know that? What nonsense.
I remember when John Howard was asked on the steps about the “worse drought in 1,000 years” he answered, “how do you know that?”.
The next day headlines were “worst drought in 100 years”.
When you read of the struggles of Charles Darwin in 1870 against scientific and religious prejudice against his theories, we have come a long way in 140 years. However sometimes it appears we have gone nowhere. Science is still captive to the press, religion, popular opinion, consensus and wild claims. Unless there was an aboriginal anemometer which inscribed the wind readings on rock. 1,000 years ago, most of the Pacific was uninhabited and the aborigines were utterly isolated by rising water after the ice age. I doubt they took much notice.
121
Some good points raised – does this only affect Australia’s rainfall patterns? I would think this should also influence South America, South Africa and New Zealand – should it not – it cant be so regionalised can it? Don’t they ask questions like this and apply it to other scenarios?
80
The report I saw insisted this wondrous ‘Southern Wind Theory’ validated all the previous failed models. I am gob-smacked and nonplussed once again by their audacity and Shamanism! I shudder to think how they are going to explain the rest of the planet,(including the Arctic and Antarctic.) going through a Solar induced Five Year Dry Period, started mid-February 2014, circa 110 degrees East of Prime (Beijing)and currently orbiting longitudinally with the Earth’s Magnetic Field at thirty degrees/Solar Month, reaching the East Coast and subsequently ALL of Australia from Early January 2015. This is what the Tree Rings and Deep Ice Cores really show, as researched and predicted by Alex S. Gaddes in his work ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ 1990.
An updated version of this work (including ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055,) is available as a free pdf from dongaddes93@gmail.com
80
A word of advice to Dr Abram from the Pope, “Stop it or you’ll go blind”.
60
Which proves that human CO2 emissions have caused the solar maximum to increase.
The fatuous bilge spruiked by these arrogant climate non- scientists uses vague coincidences as proof of causation, so why not this.
97% of idiots believe stupid stuff so it must be true.
131
Anyone who has studied the history of South Gippsland in Victoria will know that rainfall has decreased remarkably since white man started exhaling CO2 in the region (while cutting down the huge eucalypt trees!)
70
Hearty congratulations on your revelations from us all out here in the real world. Now I realise cause means lack of funds and effect remedies the problem.
Enjoy your remuneration and thank god the science is finally settled! The price was worth it. I can now relax and sleep easy without worrying about the stupid solar maximum.
50
Hearty congratulations on your revelations from us all out here in the real world. Now I realise that cause means lack of funds and effect remedies the problem.
Enjoy your remuneration and thank god for you and your wonderful simulations. That the science is finally settled is a wonder in itself! The price was worth it. I can now relax and sleep easy without worrying about the stupid things like the solar maximum.
40
I must say I’m having a lot of fun watching the warmists twist themselves into knots trying to make their increasingly irrelevant theory fit the empirical facts.
100
Yep, it’s like watching some double jointed conjoined twins contort themselves into a box that is half their size
30
So, what happened to the explanation that sea ice in Antarctica was increasing because melting ice caused the water at the surface to be less salty, thus freezing more easily and creating even more ice?
20
I got authorization from the penguins to speak in their behalf. It wasn’t easy either so don’t ask how. I pulled some major strings.
They apologize to Australia for stealing your rain and assure you that it’s both unintentional and now under investigation to find a way to stop it in the future.
They added that they very much wish the rest of the world would stay away from their home continent and leave them alone.
They also demand that all penguins now in captivity be immediately released in return for their efforts to stop stealing rain from Australia. They have set up a reentry to the wild program to assist the newly released members of their society to regain their full freedom and independence.
————————————————————–
Well, what do you expect with a subject heading like that. 😉
70
Or perhaps this subject requires one to say, “BS!”
30
The models get ever screwier and screwier as do their predictions and their wild assumptions. 🙁
30
I can’t help wondering how anyone can know how strong the Southern Ocean winds were 1,000 years ago so as to be able to make this statement.
Perhaps a full blown , bullshit, is necessary.
30
I know why my 6:28 AM comment is stuck in moderation. But I do wonder how the word I used differs from such things as, “crap” and “Bu….it”, where every reader knows the intent and apparently are not trapped, with sufficient intensity to require the word itself to be approved or disapproved of.
20
I can’t help going on about my 1,000 years statement (and assuming it will be let out of purgatory). Their reconstruction is based on proxies piled on top of each other, 3 deep. What do you call 3 X questionable?
I can believe actual gas trapped in ice cores and even the dating of various layers to within some tolerance. But what relationship has anything in an ice core, anything about a tree ring, or anything about a lake got to do with what the wind was doing over a 1,000 year period? In the last 1,000 years we are bound to have seen the kind of climate variations possibly several times that have been one of the most serious areas of disagreement between skeptics and warmists.
This assertion, to me, requires suspension of my normal healthy skepticism before I can believe it. The conclusions that follow from it are then moot.
50
Yes, you say “It wasn’t easy either so don’t ask how. I pulled some major strings.”
Strings you call it!
Strings!!
You should hear those penguins now!
It’s outrageous! Poor defenseless penguins are traumatized…
You’ll be hearing about this!
00
Gosh! I got the penguins a lot of publicity. I got their demand for release of all their citizens in captivity publicized. And they do genuinely regret stealing rain from Australia.
Their problem is that without lips and suitable vocal chords they can’t speak for themselves. I only had to do a lot of negotiating to get the right to be the spokesman. The big problem was establishing a suitable sign language to get started. I put in a rather large effort on behalf of both Australia and the penguins.
For that I get criticized? 😉 😉
00
PS:
They are not paying me. It was all pro bono. Unfortunately. 🙁
00
Jo
Here are the average yearly rainfall figures for 30 year periods from 1901 – 1990 according to BoM’s time series for Southern Australia.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=saus&season=0112&ave_yr=0
1901-1930 371/year
1931-1960 378/year
1961-1990 395/year
Here is the yearly average rainfall since 1991.
1991-2013 397/year
So there has been a steady increase in rainfall for Southern Australia since 1901.
Their research is fundamentally flawed. Can these people be contacted – surely they looked at the data.
(The only area in Australia that has had a declining rainfall is SW Australia.)
70
And this has been conclusively shown to be because of land clearing.
20
this needs to be posted at the end of each ABC Science AGW posting:
http://www.compoundchem.com/2014/04/02/a-rough-guide-to-spotting-bad-science/
50
I can get a graph like that at the top of this page from any good oscilloscope by feeding it a noisy sine wave. 🙁
20
I should add (in all fairness) to my previous post, that the Southern Lows are indeed forced further South by the onset of the ‘Dry’ Cycles (Thus missing Perth) – but this has nothing to do with AGW or Carbon,or Wind. It is noted that the Southern Lows at the moment are reaching South Western Australia, because Australia is still experiencing a a Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period (before the next ‘Dry’ Cycle arrives in early January 2015. Note also the increase in precipitation (snow) has occurred simultaneously in the Arctic and the Antarctic in the last eighteen months.
I sympathise with Roy Hogue, and share his disbelief.
20
I have just had a look at some of the supplementary information to this paper which can be found here
Unfortunately I haven’t any science background to be able to assess the correlation or significance numbers but it appears that a lot of the basis for the claimed shift in the SAM is climate model based.
The “Supplementary Fig 4 ; SAM-Temperature relationships in CMIP5 last millennium simulations” which of course CIMP5 being the latest family of IPCC climate models now mostly discounted as being no further advanced than the models used in the 2007 AR4.
And those models have been shown to be incapable of predicting any confirmable aspect of the global climate.
So draw your own conclusions on the veracity of one of the major measurements of the England paper upon which the conclusions are based, the already discounted CIMP5 family of climate models.
But the very interesting item illustrated here as a outcome of the 8 listed climate models is the warming across the 800 km wide Drake Passage between the Antarctic Peninsula and Cape Horn , the southern tip of the South American continent.
As above this is titled here as the” SAM- Temperature relationship illustration“.
It shows considerable warming downwind of the Antarctic Peninsula and the southern part of the SA continent.
But it shows also a lower level of warming along the Antarctic Circumpolar current flows through the Drake Passage.
The Antarctic Peninsula and the South American Patagonia regions are the ONLY land masses that directly intruding into and therefore influence the flow of both the Polar Vortex- SAM system as well as the Antarctic Ocean’s Circumpolar Current flow.
And it is here that the warmer temperatures are supposedly to be found in that total system and it was from here that the proxies were taken from that form the basis of the claims of this paper.
As a glider pilot, the Andes Ranges that run for over 7000 kms north along the western sea board of South America begin right down in Patagonia only a few hundred kilometres north the Drake Passage.
Currently a number of very long distance glider flights many of over 2000 kms with a world record of over 3008.8 kms flown in 13.5 hours at altitudes of between 32,000 and 40,000 feet north from Patagoni along the Andes in the incredible mountain wave systems that exist over western Argentina have been flown in recent years.
An attempt at the world altitude record for gliders in a pressurised glider using astronaut type pressure suits to be flown from near the Drake Passage using the Andes Mountain lee waves system to about 50’000 feet just below the present world gliding altitude record and the making the jump into the high altitude Polar Vortex wave systems known to exist in the very southern latitudes and going to about a hoped for 80,000 feet in these Polar Vortex wave systems, is being worked on at present.
What I am suggesting here is that there is a very great mixing of the atmosphere right up through the stratospheric levels is taking place in the very locations that the proxies that form the basis of this paper’s claims is dependent on for the conclusions of the paper.
In short it is quite possible, even likely that what the England paper purports to represent as a deep southern latitude phenomena, the supposed shift of the SAM southwards over a millennium in time may be a purely local effect as a function of the terrain affected local climate where the proxies were taken from.
And as can be very clearly seen in the modeled localised increases in temperature in the 45 degree arc centered on the Drake Passage compared to the other 300 degrees of longitude around the Southern Ocean regions.[ Supplementary Figure 4 ]
Temperature increases are localised around the only intruding land masses of the Antarctic Peninsula and the Cape Horn tip of the South American continent and it’s stratospheric flow disrupting Andes Mountains lee wave systems and the Antarctic Peninsula.
So England et al may have measured a localised effect only, thats if both the proxies and the climate modeled predictions for the region and phenomena the paper purports to research hold any validity .
With our current knowledge of the total inability of the current families of climate models to predict anything including the world’s major climate affecting phenomena, the ENSO phase and it’s strength less than only a few months out then you would have to place great faith indeed in the paper’s conclusions as having any semblance of scientific veracity at any level.
60
Well spotted. Drawing a bow two thirds of the way around the globe.
00
After some decades teaching various subjects in High Schools, I have seen more believable efforts from six formers justifying not doing their course work.
Scientists of the pretend variety, such as Dr England, must live and work in a closed society that never interacts with real people doing real work.
It would be funny if film studio script-writers were churning this stuff out under titles such as ‘The Science Lark’ (for those who remember ‘The Navy Lark’.
00
Yeah! It replaced the Navy Duck.
Go on, who knows what I mean here?
Tony.
10
Lighter, Amphibious Resupply, Cargo
G’day Tony,
Trained in one way back when cocky was an egg.
00
Pressed the send button too soon.
LARC the successor to the Duck as in actually a DUKW
Defined as –
“D”, designed in 1942,
“U”, “utility”,
“K”, front-wheel drive,
“W”, six-wheel dual-driving axles
Before my time.
00
With Ronnie Barker doing the official announcements!
00
The general attitude is that everything in the climate should be nice and average. Temperatures from one year to the next should not go up or down, but stay average. Winds and rainfall too. Every year should be like the year before. Of course we know this is not true but it seems any variation is the fault of CO2 and CO2 alone. Convenient. It just happens to be a measure of industrialization so hated by the Greens, so clearly we are affecting the weather and industrialization should be stopped. That is almost too good to be true, which means it isn’t.
However the oscillations in sea temperature over wide areas are well known, if unexplained and unpredictable. So we have the unpredictable but anticipated El Ninos and La Ninas, which can last for decades as shown in the ice cores in the Andes. These affect both sides of the pacific, in a reverse way. Drought one side and rain the other. Some droughts in South America as shown in ice samples last 60 years.
Is it then possible that there is another slow but permanent oscillation between arctic and antarctic sea temperatures which means that, as we know well, the poles are exact opposites in sea ice, a fact which has been documented for more than 100 years but which seems to be a total puzzle to alleged scientists like Prof. Turney. If one is at a maximum, the other is at a minimum. Again, CO2 is at fault.
Remember the oceans are on average 4,000 metres deep and the weather just might be very dependent on the water which outweighs the atmosphere by 400:1 as one atmosphere is 10 metres. Maybe these vast oceans are just slowly sloshing, a long term oscillation at great depth. To suggest we do not have all the facts or models on what is driving our weather is comical. I would challenge a supercomputer model to predict water flow in a load of clothes in a clothes washer.
Still, more CO2 theories turn up every week. It is just so evil. Too bad the carbon cycle is the cycle of all life on earth and all coal, oil and gas is actually just rotted plant matter. As I pointed out before, 86% of all solid food by weight is just carbon. Take that Vegans.
You have to give it the gas marketing people though. ‘Natural’ gas is just brilliant. Clean, invisible, powerful. So much better than ‘unnatural’ coal or ‘black gold’ even though chemically almost identical. Yep, carbon in solid form is evil, because it is dirty and you can get it on your hands. Too bad none of the Greens know any chemistry.
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I suspect that you conflate vegans with something although I am not sure what.
Is your point that they might as well eat meat since it is the same as vegetables once you break it into single atoms?
Maybe we could put up some surreptitious posters in the criminal courts to help with criminals with their defence.
“Your honour, see this carrot? Surely to convict me of the murder is as rational as locking me up for the consumption of this carrot. After all, they are both 86% carbon by dry weight.”
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Ha! I am actually a second degree vegetarian. I only eat animals which only eat plants or another way, animals which do not eat other animals. Except fish which are almost entirely carnivorous, so they are excepted from the rule. I was pointing out the illogic of it all, but with the meat is murder mantra, who said vegetables do not have feelings? I was particularly friendly for a cabbage for a long time. Poor conversationalist but there were so many layers.
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I’m a level six vegan. I don’t eat anything that casts a shadow.
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Heywood
Could you hear me laughing all the way from Woomera?
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Or as a South African replied to the snaky comment that he seemed to only eat meat.
“Have you ever seen a lion eating vegetables”
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yes I have. Your south african needs to get out more.
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Just on the waters surrounding the Antarctic Continent. (my Bolds)
Seems odd to me that while the Atmosphere is supposed to be warming, this vast amount of freezing water is acting as a cooling effect.
Tony.
Source
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The seas south of the Antarctic Convergence contain the coldest and densest water in the world
And for a while on a certain ship of fools some of the coldest and densest “scientists”(?).
🙂
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Somebody posted this link as an “interesting read” on Andrew Bolt’s blog.
It says that while comparing the variation in sea ice extent between the Arctic and the Antarctic makes the decrease in the Arctic look not so staggering, he/she
So she decided to look at the anomalies (that of the yearly means which are about 10% of the seasonal change for both) as diameters of circles with an area equal to the shape of a poorly drawn doughnut and a flying pig, then found that her calculations made the change for the Arctic look staggering compared to the Antarctic.
Most of us would have thought that we cocked up somewhere.
There is a large problem when comparing ice extents of the two. It includes areas that are at lest 15% sea ice. As Chris Turney knows, kilometers of clear water can become ice floes and then thick impenetrable ice in a short space of time (while your fart-arsing around on Argos. They can also disappear quickly due to the waves. Here is a picture of the arctic ice today with percentage ice.
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For perspective here. any comparison is bogus.
Antarctica has more than 90% of the whole World’s ice.
So considering there is other ice in other places, then Arctic Ice is less than 10% of the total.
There is ….. NO comparison.
Tony.
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The sea-ice extent is comparable, around 18 million square km for both in winter. I suspect that more of the Antarctic sea-ice extent is much greater than 15% ice than for the arctic because of the harsher conditions, and thicker.
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Meanwhile CBS news just this morning announced that Antarctic glaciers have reached a “tipping point”. This together with a time lapse of a glacier or two moving out to sea.
Scary scary stuff………
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Hey Mark,
Let’s get some TV crews down there. The tipping over of those glaciers should make spectacular 6 o’clock news. And we’d be right there to catch it. Imagine the price they would pay for our exclusive video that no one else had the forethought to record.
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Opportunity lurks in every disaster.
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I thought moving into the ocean and then out to sea is what glaciers do. Did I miss something in my geology course? 😉
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The last eighteen months has seen an increase in both Arctic and Antarctic Snow cover.The Southern Lows have been reaching Australia, and will continue to do so, until the current Solar induced ‘Dry’ Cycle (started over China, 110 degrees East of Prime,mid February 2014) reaches Australia’s east coast in early January 2015. (thirty degrees of longitude/Solar Month,with the Solar Orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field.) The onset and passage of these ‘Dry’ Cycles forces the Southern Lows further South, thus almost totally missing Australia,(especially the South West.)
Note, these ‘Dry’ Cycles move East to West,(Solar Orbit) – prevailing weather moves West to East (axial spin.)
The orbit of these ‘Dry’ Cycles can be observed by following the progressive ‘break up’ of Jet Stream Cloud from the influence of Solar Particles,(neutrinos?)
That is, if we can access the NASA satellite cloud map.
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Dear Tony Abbott & Joe Hockey; here is where you can get some more savings to help with the budget position; immediately cut the useless positions occupied by; Nerilie J. Abram, Robert Mulvaney, Françoise Vimeux, Steven J. Phipps, John Turner, Matthew H. England; and other useless positions are; David Karoly, Will Steffen, Chris Turney and his Antarctic Turkeys; the entire climate dept at the CSIRO, the ABC and Prof Garnaut….total savings of at least $2 billion per year.
THANKS TONY!
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