Albany, Western Australia. Not near a desert. Not near the tropics. Hottest place in Australia?
Lucky, thanks to the BOM, that we have such high quality data to understand the Australian climate. Without it, we would never have found out that the hottest day ever recorded in Australia appears to be the 8th of February, 1933 in, wait for it… Albany, in the far cool south of Western Australia.
Chris Gillham emails:
“Guess where and when was the hottest day ever recorded in Australia? 50.7C at Oodnadatta on 2 Jan 1960? No way! Mardie at 50.5C on 19 Feb 1998? Get out of here! It was at Albany on 8 February 1933, that historic day when this normally chilly town on WA’s southern coast was razed with a temperature of 51.2C. Don’t believe me? You can’t question the accuracy of ACORN, a temperature network that shapes economic policy, and the screenshot from last night’s ACORN download for Albany max proves it …”
The all new marvellous ACORN dataset has been “expert peer reviewed”, it “employs the latest analysis techniques “ and it is “a complete re-analysis of the Australian homogenised temperature database”. Phew. The BOM lists their hottest days here, but they don’t seem to have noticed the hotter than hot Albany record yet.
It gives you a lot of confidence in the accuracy of all the other daily temps, doesn’t it? There doesn’t appear to be any sinister design here, just plain incompetence.
Australians need a full independent audit on our temperature records.
Here’s the month of February in Albany in 1933 according to ACORN.
DATE Temp (c)
19330201 25.5
19330202 29.6
19330203 30.4
19330204 35.2
19330205 23.0
19330206 33.3
19330207 32.8
19330208 51.2
19330209 38.8
19330210 30.8
19330211 25.5
19330212 24.2
19330213 27.0
19330214 30.8
19330215 28.9
19330216 28.2
19330217 28.0
19330218 26.5
19330219 27.0
19330220 29.6
19330221 28.5
19330222 23.1
19330223 23.9
19330224 25.0
19330225 28.5
19330226 25.2
19330227 23.0
19330228 23.2
The original raw data for Albany shows that Feb 8th was closer to 44.8C, still a very hot day. But as Chris Gillham points out, bumping just one day up to 51.2 changed the monthly average by 0.2C. How many times have other errors shifted averages and we don’t know about it?
“You wouldn’t expect one incorrect day to influence overall monthly or annual trends but February 1933 in Albany with current temps including the 51.2C was 28.8C in ACORN. February 8 1933 was actually 44.8C according to CDO raw at Albany 9500, the hottest February day ever recorded in the town. If that’s substituted, February 1933 had a monthly average of 28.6C. A 0.2C shift is significant from a single day error. If you check the ACORN monthly averages for Albany 9741, Feb 1933 has an average of 28.8C, so the 51.2C day has infiltrated and corrupted all ACORN calculations. Feb 1933 averaged 25.8C in CDO raw 9500 and 28.8C in ACORN 9741 (which starts 1965 in CDO).”
The ACORN dataset is supposedly double checked and expert yet no one has done the most basic of quality control. You’d think experts would have put in some basic checks and error messages. eg IF TMax > Highest on record THEN look again!
Thanks to Chris Gillham for doing the checking that our paid experts forgot to do. His site is waclimate.net
Hang on… weren’t they supposed to be decreasing past temperatures to increase the current “warming”? Someone at ACORN dropped the ball on this one.
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They mistook 33 for 83…..
40
Has Mosher been notified?
30
Albany the hottest day ever in Oz? – totally laughable. This obvious distortion doesn’t surprise me – aBOMinable error BOM. How does that saying go? “You pay peanuts and you get monkeys” – well in the case of BOM it is – wait for it – “You pay acorns & you get aBOMinable BOM” – and BOM still believe in and promote CAGW – you only have to look at their website and view/listen to their media releases to realize this. Tony it is not only the ABC that need scrutiny for biased “left wing” behaviour patterns.
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AND so does the CSIROh! according to a talk given by a CSIRO employee and amateur radio licensed operator at a recent radio club meeting. Unfortunately I missed the meeting but I am hoping to respond sometime early in 2015.
Ron Cook
VK3JRC
R-COO- K+
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Everyone knows the hottest place in Australia is Bacchus Marsh in Victoria.
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Nah! it’s Warrandyte LOL.
51
Yes Bacchus Marsh, it’s near Melton 🙂
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Global warming at its finest in Australia.
You want it warmer where you are today?
Just change your temperature readings.
Simple.
I did that and feel warmer already.
Why can’t goverments just look at the evidence of what these fraudsters are doing and stop them?
These “adjustments” are not accidental.
Somebody is deliberately altering our historical temperature record to further enhance the fraud that is global warming.
The evidence of what the are doing is blatantly obvious to anybody with half a brain.
It’s there in black and white and still they do nothing.
One would think that not only would it be in the publics best interest to set the record right.
But it would be hugely beneficial to the government with their on going fight with the fraudsters
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So how many other bits of interesting data have been ignored, unnoticed or forgotten by that cabal of “climate scientists” that Penny W(r)ong and Bill Shorten believe to provide the “Settled Science”.
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51.2? Peanuts. I have been to Mildura and the Grampians when it was 49 and 48.5 respectively. You can’t tell me there aren’t hotter places in Australia than Victoria. Plus Albany is on the Bight. Ocean breezes etc. Hard to believe a coastal town would be anywhere near that.
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Albany, February 1933?
Probly had a Climate Change Conference there and
turned off the air-conditioning. 🙂
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These are monthly mean temperatures, I suppose. For 30 days in a row, that’s just impossible, unless peak temperatures on quite a number of days exceeded this value.
News papers reported Feb 16, 1933, as a record temperature at Albany: 112.6°F or 44.8°C. Still far below 50°C.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/37696818
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I don’t believe your assumption is correct. If you look at the column, the last 4 digits go from “0201” to “0228”. That high of 51.2 is for the 8th, not the month.
10
And we all know that if we had even 44.8c in Albany this summer. Christine Milne’s head would basically explode. We would have politicians scrambling to introduce a new fart tax and AGW would be considered proven beyond all reasonable doubt. The fact that it happened in 1933 however offers absolutely no evidence of any value whatsoever in relation to 250ppm CO2’s ability to produce so called “extreme weather events” as far as the faithful will be concerned.
The deniers have basically no other arguments these days than to fudge data and call names that apply so much more appropriately to warmists than they do to sceptics, that it has ceased to even be amusing.
50
No sunspot regions on the visible disc today.
The excess of ozone in the southern magnetic pole.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_10_sh_f00.gif
As a result, inhibits the polar vortex over Australia.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=138.71,-51.79,365
Ozone at an altitude of 45 km.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_01_sh_f00.gif
50
A discrepancy which continues to amaze me is the Harbour (Wedding Cake) maximum temp for the same day as the famous Sydney Observatory record temp for Jan 18. I appreciate that Wedding Cake is a cooler site, being in rather than near the harbour and being away from any UHI…but to be a mere 34.3 when the nearby Observatory recorded 45.8 seems incredible. In fact, Wedding Cake did achieve a temp of 39.7 – but on the 8th of Jan, when the Observatory recorded 42.3. What’s going on?
What they don’t mention about the Oodnadatta temp 1960 is how hot the surrounding days were. Maybe we’re not supposed to see it as more than a quick rise? The same year produced Sydney’s Big Heat, which didn’t go as high as 1939 and 2013, but which did not let up for four days. I think this is another one of those extremes we’re not supposed to read too much into…unless it occurs now.
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I have a thermometer just in the shade near the Mildura station. It usually reads within a degree but a few times in the summer it has read the same as the official temperature until about 5pm, then they diverged by up to 8 degrees by 7pm. For some reason, the BOM site didn’t cool down.
The worst thing about this is that the Sun peaks around the shield late in the summer evenings to reflect off the other side and onto the thermometer. It should be reading higher.
71
it is worth reading-
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3000
about the approx 1000 records in ACORN with mins>max!
there are more posts relating at later dates. the response from BOM-
“…so in the next version of the data set (later this year), in cases where the adjusted max < adjusted min, we’ll set both the max and min equal to the mean of the two.”
hahaha.. this seems to be the norm now. not interested in the how or why, just the what we get.
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That’s really funny, I was in Albany one summer (early 80s) when it reached an oppressive 45C. The hotels didn’t have air conditioning in those days, not even fans, just heaters which were often needed.
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I tried to click Chris’ link to “CDO raw” but the BOM site said “Weather Data temporarily unavailable”.
Stand back, taxpayers, corrections are in progress at The Adjustment Bureau.
Can that difference between the CDO and ACORN be true? “Feb 1933 averaged 25.8C in CDO raw 9500 and 28.8C in ACORN 9741“, really? I recall Bill Kininmonth saying at ICCC9 [at 32m:0s mark] that the data on the BoM web site (ie Climate Data Online) was “the original records” from paper and magnetic tape that were digitised in the late 1980s during Bill’s reign at BoM, and so the “CDO” data is the original data.
If that is true, we are looking at world-class adjustment work at the BoM, rivalling anything you have seen from GISS. ACORN bumping up a month by an entire 3 degrees; just breath taking.
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Click here and Type Albany in after selecting temperature.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
20
Thanks. And indeed CDO shows 44.8 max for the 8th and 25.8 for the Feb mean of maximums in Albany 1933.
In hindsight I’m not sure what a big deal that is, since it goes against the general trend of old temperatures being adjusted down and recent temperatures being adjusted up. Can’t get much outrage out of it.
41
Andrew, the deal is that it was probably an accident. The problem is, they have sold ACORN as all marvellous, expert reviewed, and very high quality, when they haven’t even done the most basic checks on quality.
They regularly announce “records” on TV and in the media, as if those records are correct and mean something.
And when we ask for explanations for adjustments, the answers are not satisfactory, and when we asked for an audit the BOM dumped the whole dataset and rebuilt it.
How many other errors are there? (I’ve got a lot more to show you).
313
Jo is right. ACORN has been sold as above reproach, and state of the art. Yet a few simple lines of code would have picked up an outlier data point like this ‘record’ for checking.
No wonder the BOM want to avoid an independent audit of their temperature record. Reputations would fall and heads would roll if it was checked properly.
161
Is this pointing to the remote possibility that the oft-trumpeted claim that 2013 was the hottest year in the history of the universe, is false?
I shudder to think that this might be true!
10
This was reported on ABC on 16th Jan this year.
‘Adelaide could break its 75-year-record for its hottest day – a searing 46.1C in January 1939 – after its warmest night in five years.’
It didn’t, of course.
But ACORN has the highest temp for Adelaide at 46.4C on 12th Jan, 1939 (I presume that would be the West Terrace w/s, now closed).
19390110 46.2
19390111 34.9
19390112 46.4 ***
19390113 44.5
19390114 35.5
Ah, just another problem with the ‘Rolls Royce’ data set.
50
How much did it cost to produce that result?
What if it is not an outlier but is infact the MOST accurate part of the ACORN fantasy? What if it is just wrong while the rest are outliers? Sort of a process like a random number generator “fixed” by deletion of obvious junk only. Except the deletion bit has not been done.
When we are told that Australia has warmed since then by this same “data” then it would be fair to expect Albany to have hotter days occasionally.
When we are told that the weather has become more extreme and that extremes are more frequent as well then it would be fair to expect Albany to have far far hotter days occasionally now. Especially when they add the “worse than first thought” bit.
Add this all up and most of the bitumen roads around that town should melt and flow down the drains once or twice each summer.
The Divisional Meteorologist (Mr. E. B. Curlewis) July 1934.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/32950587?zoomLevel=5
123.2 degrees F = 50.7 degrees C.
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There was also a 50.7C recorded at Midura on 7th Jan, 1906.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_076077_All.shtml
10
My family are 3 generations of farmers and publicans from Albany/Mt Barker/Kojonup. While I don’t personally recall anything like that sort of heat as a kid growing up there, I am going to see if my dad remembers any +40c days or stories of them. My entire life the first reaction I get when I say I am from Albany is “pretty cold there eh?”. So who knew… +50c amazing lol
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I don’t totally disagree with this, but I do think that the incompetence is made far worse by the fact that they are fudging the data all the time. Why would a low level minion (the workers that get things done) care so much about the purity of the data set when it is all a [snip, so dubious] anyway? And why should the upper level staff care about only hiring the very best people when what they really want is people that will give them the results they want to see regardless of what the real data is?
I think it was H.L. Mencken who said something like, “it is hard to get a man to see the truth when his paycheck depends on him not seeing the truth”.
181
When will these people just accept that the raw data is as accurate as it is, and it cannot be made any more accurate than that?
You might “know” that it “should” have been hotter (or colder) than the temperature reading, and you might be able to dream up some rationalisation for changing it. But that cannot make the new figure any more correct that the original. In fact it introduces the definite potential for systematic bias, which is exactly what I am skeptical about.
I have a ruler, marked in millimeters. I might be able to see that a measured distance falls between two marks, so I can guess the measurement to the nearest half a degree, but I can do no better than that.
They used to teach this stuff in the first few weeks of the first semester in physics 101. Then it got political …
240
I took a whole three month credit course at Uni just on the sources and causes of mathematical error in computing, and that was thirty years ago.
70
As I have often discussed with my senior maths teaching daughter, estimation is very important and should be taught. Any numerate person should be able to look a a table of figures and pick out obvious, or, at least, probable mistakes even if they don’t know what the correct figure is. Either the Albany record is a deliberate fudge or no numerate person has ever looked at these figures.
40
A little off topic but a warmist friend just posted this on FB. Anyone have a link to discredit it?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/07/15/april_may_and_june_2014_is_the_warmest_three_month_period_ever.html
10
1. Records began in 1890. The Earth is 4,500,000,000 years old. It’s been hotter before for millions of years. Humans had nothing to do with it then. Real scientists would mention that.
2. So it’s hot now? It’s been warming for 300 years. They don’t know why it started warming that long ago, long before CO2 started rising.
3. The trends in 1980 were no faster than the ones in 1870 (Phil Jones, Hadcrut). All that CO2 didn’t make much difference. See this post, esp point 7.
4.There’s been no significant surface warming for 16 years. The models are wrong.
261
How exactly is the “global average temperature” measured (since 1890)?
21
According to NOAA;
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php
I have read that through a few times and still don’t quite understand it.
From the next item
I think I do understand that one. If we don’t have any temperature measurements on the top of the mountains we can make them up and that gives us the anomaly.
11
I shouldn’t start to engage on a debate on such a website.
The language is enough to tell you it is a warmist shill site, “splitting hairs on the camel’s fracturing back” – I wonder were they got that – 3 out of 10 for impact!
The link to the Japanese MO does not work, in any case they
have a record since 1891 but not, I think, a GLOBAL one. Their last press release was 27.6.14 so where the info for June has come from is a mystery.
The site also claims “Arctic sea ice is “trending” to record lows when it currently tracks 2006 (the decades highest),”earliest hurricane to make landfall in N.Carolina” – I though it had missed – any case Outer Banks is still there, they know how to look after themselves as I saw for myself. No mention of the LAST landfall!
There are some heatwaves somewhere – aren’t there always – and it seems this years extra heat comes from the “building” El Nino (and not from CO2!!!!). I thought the El Nino’s discharged their heat in the NH Winter – that’s why its called “El Nino – the Christ child.
In short Slate.com know nothing. Point out that ALL the main players accept Global Warming is in hiatus – he should accept
the argument from authority!
51
Still amazed there are kiddies out there who think that sceptics have never seen that plot. An example of Australian education at its finest?
There is less than a degree of warming. This is from measured maximum and minimum temperatures of stations scattered unevenly through out the world with few stations recording over the whole time period. This is not a simple average of the raw data.
The NH and SH differ by less than a quarter of a degree and never has the anomalies for SH been greater than NH by more than 0.05 of a degree. Extraordinary for such a dynamic atmosphere and ocean, with both max and min temperatures very dependent on cloud cover, winds and humidity, that it all averages out nicely.
51
skeptic4557, ask your friend if he knows the difference between an increase and a plateau and then quote the article back at him:
If co2 causes catastrophic warming, why is the warming at a standstill especially when, to quote the article again:
So the article says that atmospheric co2 is as high as it has ever been for 800,000 years, but there has been (on the articles own admission) no warming since 1998!!!
11
Try this for starters:
http://phl.upr.edu/library/notes/habitabilityofthepaleo-earthasamodelforearth-likeexoplanets
The discussion is divorced from the entire climate controversy, since the subject is evaluating exoplanets.
Figure 2 is pretty clear. The last time it was this cold on this planet was about 310 to 280 million years ago. Most of the past is warmer. You can also search for pages referencing Phanerozoic climate, CO2 and temperature, but the majority of hits will be from sites that are perceived as advocacy. There are links to this site, Watts Up With That, Real Climate, and so on.
You can also look at the Geocarb III curve for CO2, which would – according to AGW theory – indicate that we are someone’s bad dream. Whatever catastrophe CO2 is supposed cause must have already happened – if climate is as sensitive to CO2 as AGW theory claims. Welcome to The Matrix. This is one reason so many geologists and geologically trained folks are sceptical of the AGW theory to begin with. Nature falsified it half-a-billion years ago.
00
Easily checked. Hot winds in SW WA come from the north east, from central Australia. Those winds have to first come past towns upwind, and some neaby towns would also have records. Their temperatures would need to be at least in the same ballpark. If not, there might have been an extra double fudge factor with hot fries on top in the offending algorith.
What gives it away are temperatures on the two preceding days (33.8 and 32.8) followed by 38.8, 30.8 and 25.4: indicative of a normal wind shift and sea breeze with consistently cool days thereafter as a front moved through. High 30’s to low 40’s (actual as you point out was 44.8) could be expected on the 8th with a strong north east wind, but not in the low 50’s.
Fudging exposed. Why should the BOM be allowed to get away with altering public records? Data doesn’t belong to the BOM, it’s only the appointed custodian. Perhaps it’s time that was reviewed?
As for hot in WA, I’ve been working in the Kennedy Ranges when it was 52 and low humidity. Other than an occasion waft of wind through leaves, it was absolutely quiet. Nothing alive was moving or making a noise; all in survival mode. Can’t imagine that happening in Albany. ) Expect a free BOM calendar (or two) in the post for next year for pointing out the mistake.
90
Orwell lives in the Ministry of Climate Truth where the past must be made to comply with the present so the future can be what we direct it to be.
We need to save money and the ABC and BoM would be good places to start.
110
Somebody hit the wrong key when they were “adjusting” the temperature records?
70
Transposed up an octave.
00
Sorry but this is a very long winded post and will appear a fairly mixed hard to understand post as the way in which the global and historical global and historical US temperatures have been and are constantly being adjusted and corrupted by first the NCDC and then downstream further adustements by GISS and CRU is a long, complex and unbelievably corrupted process and subject to the point of irrational stupidity.
But we are dealing with climate science and climate warming scientists so !!
I’m fairly certain that few here on Jo’s site realise just what a mess the USA and global historical temperature records are really in and how utterly corrupted to the point of uselessness they really appear to be to a layman .
And nearly all of it is due entirely to the way in which those temperatures have been adjusted, altered, infilled, zombied as in no station existing there so they invent a temperature which they suppose is somewhere close to what the real temperature would have been if there ever was an actual station located there.
Generally the global and US temperature record has been adjusted, distorted and corrupted to a degree that is astonishing to any reasonably intelligent individual.
And the current temperatures is always adjusted upwards due to the way in which the temperatures are adjusted after a break point in the temperature trends.
So due to mostly UHI when a break point occurs the historical temperature records are always adjusted downwards and the current “adjusted” temperatures just resume their upward trend at the end of the pre break point data so we get an ever increasing upward trend in official temperature data as is now admitted as such by the NCDC.
I have read and tried tom follow nearly all of the first thousand posts [ now at 1630 posts in Judith Curry’s Climate Etc blog post Understanding adjustments to temperature data
Perhaps the most astonishing item to emerge from this is the sheer inability of the scientific mind or at least the scientific minds that have gravitated to global warming beliefs to actually realise just how utterly stupid and utterly irrational and how far they are from real world reality and how unbelievable they are now looking to the average guy in the street with all their random appearing adjustments to what is supposedly the key data that will prove or disprove the catastrophist global warmers belief in their cult status.
And that of course classes global climate science in the same category of irrationality and sheer stupidity to any who got deep into the arguments in the Climate Etc post
The NCDC. [ National Centre for Data Collection ] where all the US data and global temperature data is first lodged and processed before it goes out to GISS and CRU for further substantial fiddling actually changes the entire global data base on a DAILY basis.
Yeh I know that sounds totally irrational and is, but they do.
This remember is Climate Science we are looking at so rationality doesn’t necessarily apply .
Which means that the temperatures of the very hot 1930’s are downgraded and virtually dissapear as the hottest years and then have reappeared in the temperture records once again as a hot period when some different change in our local temperatures appears and the irrational computer model once again adjusts every single temperature record all over again to fit the required temperature data program as decided by the climate scientists of the NCDC.
The NCDC adjustments as I partly understood them and which no doubt is the near identical system used by the BOM so as to retain homogeneity with international temperature and climatic data recording and analysis systems.
Figures are very approximate as I can’t be bothered wading back through it all to get the data as delivered and which there was a lot of doubt about as the NCDC CANNOT provide the actual number of USA stations providing data .
Don’t even bother to ask about the ROW.
1 The temperatures across the entire historical record of a station even after a century of faithful recording are automatically adjusted every time there is a breakpoint, an abrupt shift or change in the temperature regime of that station.
The break points can as one common example, be created with a shift of the station to a more rural area thus lowering the newly located recording station temperatures when it is moved out of the UHI effect of a populated area..
But the new record is then adjusted by computer algorithms to continue on the same warm temperature trend as the pre shift UHI affected temperature trend automatically raising the now generally lower recorded rural temperatures to continue the same warmer temperatures of the pre-shift UHI affected temperatures.
To maintain a semblance of the new temperatures concurrence with the present temps those far past historical temps then have to be cooled to bring the tend line increase back down to something resembling the current temperatures.
At least thats how I THINK it works but don’t ask for details
[ It will be VERY interesting if and when we get a long term multi year downward trend in temperatures. We will have a new ice age on our hands according to the NCDC’s algorithms while the girls continue to sunbathe in their itsy bitsy’s.
I ghuess climate scientists are so busy predicting the future on their models that they have forgotten that what goes up must come down and when it does it is likely to bite you on the arse big time if you haven’t thought things through due to self inflicted rogance and gross over confidence in your own cannot be doubted scientific abilities ]
Break points as seen by the computer temperature adjusting algorithms can arise even when no station move is involved. They can be created from paining screens, clearing trees or growth or re-growth around the station, replacing grass with stone or some such around the station, putting a parking lot or a footpath or a new access road close to the station or a new building well upwind of the station.
Wind effects from memory and we did some measurements down wind of a tree line on some trial plots on our farm , can affect rainfall and no doubt temperature for around 20 times the height of the trees downwind so the presence of new buildings even well upwind of the prevailing winds at a station could well provide a break point in the data from the algorithms perspective and so another spurious adjustment to the entire station record is done and becomes the new irrational official temperatiuure until the next adjustment which will be next day when the next day’s data from the entire weather recording system is run though again.
No I didn’t believe it or the stupidity involved either nor did most of those who posted on Judith’s blog.
2 / UHI adjustments are an absolutely laughable 0.2C degrees where as there is a large amount of research to show that UHI’s of as high as 2-3 or even 4 to 5 C degrees as measured in very fast, less than 30 years, rural to urban development situations in Turkey and China are much nearer the norm for the UHI effect.
So any station affected by UHI which is most of them, contributes much higher temperature data than the measly 0.2 C adjustment for UHI made by the NCDC’s initial adjustments.
3 / The NCDC could not provide an accurate count of the number of stations it is collecting data from but it was about 1250 USA stations.
BUT it turns out that ONLY about 650 of those stations are daily reporters . So to overcome that problem when a station drops out an ESTIMATED temperature for the day is posted for that station even when that station may not have reported for half a decade past.
Consequently the NCDC is using the data from some 800 or so stations some of which are infilled data from surrounding and suposedly adjacent but often aren’t stations,
Plus Zombie stations where there is no station and the temperatures for the Zombie stations is estimated so as to provide an apparent but entirely false good coverage of the entire continent.
Where records have not been taken as there is no station within a considerable distance but they need the data they create a Zombie station, a non existent, non real , never existed, invented station which then has it’s estimated / infilled temperatures incorporated into the official data.
When stations are too far apart or go out of business they infill using data from stations often tens of kilometres away and in the Arctic temperatures from stations many hundreds of kilometres away are used to infill data from non reporting or even non existent stations.
They were very coy on admitting that they used the estimated data from the Zombie stations to infill non operating stations. But they do it!
Then it appears that there are a whole group of stations that have continued to report daily ; eg; a Hawaiian station but for some reason they are assumed to be no longer reporting so they are infilled such as in the Hawaiian case from the mainland 3000 kilometres away despite the daily data from that station coming into the NCDC for something like a year and a half and then only found and identified by the skeptics .
Nor was that an isolated incident as many such cases were uncovered by the skeptics in Judith’s blog.
Through all of this it is wise to remember that we are dealing with Climate Science, the science where no prof is ever needed to support a hypothesis before it becomes an established fact and we must do something.
The science where outputs from climate models is accepted as the real science and the real world observations are treated as just opinion and junk.
The science where no alternative or contrary opinions will be allowed any exposure or airtime or publicity.
The science where no papers will be allowed to be published or funding will be permitted for anybody who does not fall into line with the official consensus of a catastrophically warming world.
The science where truth is never the object and is only an obstruction to promoting the Cause.
The science which is directly responsible for the sufferings and avoidable deaths of tens of thousands in the western world,
The science that has directly led to the destruction of entire industries in many countries,
The science that has led to the impoverishment of entire governments and the continued impoverishment of a couple of billions of fellow humans on this planet.
And it is the science where I have asked on three of the world’s major climate blogs, WUWT, JoNova and Climate Etc this question;
After 25 years of very expensive, ever expansive publicly funded climate research, could somebody somewhere please point out one single example where climate science as currently practiced has been of ANY visible, perceivable or useful and useable benefit at any level to our national and global societies and industries ?
I have yet to receive a reply that points to any perceivable benefits to our global society from climate warming science.
160
ROM: your confusion is perfectly understandable. When the global warming narrative emerged as a serious issue the very first question to consider was “is the earth warming or not?”.
The only data available was the temperature record. This data was collected by various methods and various equipment over an irregular space and time, locally – for local purposes (ie civil and military aviation, shipping and agricultural requirements. Not for determining a metric for a global time series. Three main bodies were set up in the early 90’s (i.e. AFTER the IPCC and after AR1 ) primarily for the purpose of providing the answer to this question. These produced the current core databases, Hadcrut, GISS and NCDC and the derivative function “the average global temperature” which has no meaning at all but serves as a metric which produces a time series by which “global warming” can proport to be measured. The difficulty and complexity of doing this produces the “adjustments” which, although distressing, are both necessary and convenient.
For a overview of the statistical problems refer to William M Briggs “How to cheat and fool yourself with time series : climate examples”.
The only comment I can make on the whole process is that the “error” in the metric is 1.1C – exceeding the total “warming” perceived since 1850 – 0.8C. In short – is the world warming or cooling? We still don’t really know!
81
Hottest day was 3rd January 1909 in Bourke, NSW, at 125 degree Fahrenheit which is 51.6 degree C. Recorded in a Stevenson Screen.
The Bureau have actually had the record scratched from the official ‘raw’ record and certainly from ACORN.
A couple of weeks ago I went through the Meteorological book in which it was recorded, and then verified at the end of that month as a record. I need to write it up at my own blog… Maybe even petition to have it reinstated.
441
Disgraceful. The revisionism that goes on in the name of… well what ?
150
Thanks Jennifer, yes, there is a lot to be said about old forgotten Stephenson screens, and some great work you’ve done. I’m just warming up to get back to the Australian data. More soon…
230
I requested the Daily Raw data from BOM several years ago and received their entire (at that time) station records recorded in degrees F, daily precipitation totals, and proceeded to generate a daily weather forecast for Australia from it using lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere as the basics for the cyclic patterns used to generate the maps posted on my site. Currently there are daily forecast maps for precipitation, high and low temperatures, snow fall and snow on ground up to the 4th of November of 2015. All free for the use of farmers and others who have a need to look at long range forecasts, enjoy.
http://www.aerology.com/Image?location=Australia&mapType=Prcp&date=7%2F18%2F2014
10
Corrected link to site, not just the image;
http://www.aerology.com/?location=Australia&mapType=Prcp&date=7%2F18%2F2014
10
The catalog numbers for the data sets I received are listed at the bottom of the compulsory disclaimer blurb they asked me to present, currently they deny that these (raw unadjusted daily) sets of data exist, or are available any longer. As usually most of the adjustments are made to monthly averages and not daily values, the data I received was fairly clean, there were a few completely out of normal range temps and a couple negative?? rainfall totals, which I simply deleted out of the data.
The information I got from the Canadian weather service was free of charge, and had a lot less gross errors, the Coop extension data for the USA had some temperature typos that were obviously due to being digitized by student volunteers, a couple of lows were three or four digits long from forgetting to tab to the next box before entering the daily data. Example 1023 low for the day when the closest stations were in the mid teens both days.
That the data sets I bought are “lost and no longer available” concerns me as they went missing at the same time the “Acorn data set” was replaced with the new “High quality homogenized Data set”
20
SteveGoddard via twitter:
“Down under, even hockey sticks are upside down”
(Bourke)
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=501947030000&dt=1&ds=1
20
True but we have moved to metric, so Id say it cancels that out.
10
Steve Goddard has shown that NASA has been hacking Australia temperature records …
00
I don’t understand why they measure the temperatures accurately all over Australia, record them, log them, file them, then throw them away, and simply make up a temperature that suits them better. Why don’t they close all the weather stations and get the temperatures from a dart board in the central office. It would be a lot cheaper, and just as accurate, as the ones they are offering now. I must call Joe in the morning and suggest it. Another saving.
210
Why do I find
So un-settling
110
Just tried to open the Data Assimilation page on the BOM website and there it wasn’t!
40
Must have been when the ice cap melted.
50
Here is a list of cold records the BOM can look at maybe they can “double check” these
http://iceagenow.info/2014/07/record-cold-u-s-plains-midwest-south/
Also i believe North Melbourne games should exempt from footy tipping competitions
Cheers
40
I live in the area. Our local TV said in 2012 there were 31 days above 90F. So far this year we have had one. In the coming week we may add two more. For about a week and a half it has been unusually cool for summer. IIRC there was a day when the temps didn’t even break 70F.
10
The BOM data appears to be pasteurised as well as homogenised. 🙂
50
Shaken, not stirred
30
Surely that happens only during a Bond event
50
Permeate free?
00
might be worth looking at this for the hottest day in oz ,bloke seems to have a good handle on the temp data ,with historical media reports to back him up.http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/18/1896-an-incredibly-hot-summer-in-both-hemispheres/
30
The art of problem solving:
1. Learn from your mistakes
2. Repeat your successes
The challenge is do know which is which and to be able to identify the critical factors that resulted in success or failure.
The art of improving any process, including problem solving:
1. Say what you are going to do and why
2. Do it in such a way that you know what you did
3. Measure how close the doing delivered the why
4. Do it better the next time
5. Go to step 1
The remainder is left as an exercise for the student.
We are all students.
There is no text book and no answers in the back of the book.
Do the exercise as if your life depends upon it.
60
Wow that’s exactly the process I use for my homemade bacon.
Consequently after almost 3 years of research, I now have a spread sheet of recipe results that is delivering what most people who taste it regard as the best bacon they have ever eaten. Isn’t science awesome!
30
The decrease in solar activity and the increase in cosmic radiation pattern perpetuated polar vortex over Australia. Forecast for July 22 unchanged.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/07/22/1800Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=132.30,-59.31,419
50
Uh-Oh.
First Australia, now Korea may be losing its nerve to impose a carbon price
~ ~ ~
July 18 (Reuters) – South Korea’s finance minister has called its impending emissions trading market “flawed in many ways”, hinting that
he would pressure other ministries to delay the planned 2015 launch, a local newspaper reported.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6N0PT3CZ20140718
100
Can we now go out and KILL every single polar bear and those viscous black and white things that live in China?
I am sick of reading about the danger of heat when it is cold that kills!
I demand more CO2 and any person or politician that does not allow it is a HUMAN hater.
61
Can someone please recommend a good SciFi site, like io9, but without the climate change propaganda?
Have a look at this:
Climate change denying physicist compares carbon dioxide to Jews
They’re still throwing the 97% argument in there. I thought everyone had moved on from that.
And this is what makes it so hard to turn people around. Theyre still using arguments and slogans from 15 years ago. How are we suppose to change this?
20
The coming ice age will cure most.
40
Nope, even that won’t work. Amidst the falling snow and plummeting mercury the constant retort will be: “Yes but it would be much colder now without all the extra CO2“.
Then when it is pointed out they have just argued CO2 has been beneficial, they will say: “yes but this is all just SHORT TERM NATURAL VARIABILITY and according to *your* solar theory the temperatures will skyrocket in 2140 when normal solar activity returns.”
And qualitatively they’ll be basically right, because the solar influence on climate is real, but quantitatively they will probably be wrong, because ECS2xCO2 is less than 1.5°C.
Remember they had the choice of waiting for real world measurements to test the theory, or just believing climate séance model projections on faith, and they chose faith. Facts are wasted on them.
20
Time the Flim Flam man is now begging. Apparently entrepreneurship is not as easy as suckling on the teat or slurping up the slops from the trough.
Lets all get in touch with old Tim and tell him what we think of his predictions.
Contact
For general enquiries and speaking engagements, email: info@climatecouncil.org.au
For donor enquiries, email: community@climatecouncil.org.au
If you would like to talk to us by phone, please email us your number and we will call you back.
Please direct media enquiries Adrian Dodd: adrian.dodd@essentialmedia.com.au
Mailing Address:
Climate Council of Australia
PO Box 1267
Potts Point 2011
31
What a shameless POS this fool is, I liken this propaganda to the annoying Hare Krishna/Flower/Orange people in the 1980’s.
A good way to drive people away is to piss them off with stupid harassment tactics, so I say keep it going Climate Council I look forward to the news story of a CC activist getting a hiding with their own tambourine.
31
Looks like Timmy is doing the Oliver Twist with his bowl held out.
Now, I wonder who was in Greg Hunt’s ear to turf Timmy out soon as there was a change of government?
Hehehehehe
21
Yes I can just picture Flim Flam as Oliver Twist & PM Tony as Bumble (played by Harry Secombe in the 1968 movie). Tony is prone to the occasional gaff so he would be well suited to play the part of Bumble. Now who would play the part of Fagin? I look forward to some input from my fellow CAGW skeptics.
20
Fagin is played by Gore?
20
Excellent casting Scaper.
10
“Consider yourself one of us….consider yourself..one of the whinging Pr*&ks”
20
BA4, Chester, MattB, Maxine, the WC etc…… here is your chance to donate a few grand each to an very unworthy cause.
Come on, you can see that poor Timmy needs it desperately !!
I’m sure you all MUST consider it a solid investment of YOUR money. 🙂
50
In science we call it “having the courage of your convictions”.
30
Tim’s work in science can be summarised into.
“Blah blah, blah, be afraid, blah, blah, blah be very afraid, blah, blah, send me $50.
He is a somewhat less amusing version of The Scotts Poet Ewan McTeagle.
http://youtu.be/4W9p_NFm6qk
30
What is becoming so very obvious is that Flim Flam Flannery is apparently totally incapable of actually earning his own honestly gotten income and living.
As illustrated by his latest attempts at begging he just constantly attempts to gain access to the incomes of those who are far less endowed with wealth than he already is.
In short he is at about the level of a disgusting blood sucking leech, sucking the economic life blood from out of any and every poor victim he can con to within grasping distance.
11
It has been noted at WUWT that Tim has a seaside home. Good money in that. If the seas don’t rise.
00
tim FLUMMERY (flannery) lives on the water !
What a bloody HYPOCRITE & CHARLATAN !!!
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/tempers-rise-over-tim-flannerys-waterside-wrangle/story-e6freuzi-1226204140999
Another interesting article about this SPIV flannery.
The Tim Flannery prediction years:-
http://www.climatechangedenier.com.au/climate-change/the-tim-flannery-prediction-years/
00
I have a question about determining the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, which I’m hoping someone can answer.
Why is the min/max hourly temps constantly rounded up to make the daily min/max that are released to the public?
I have to use the weatherzone.com.au past 24 hours as I can’t find the past 24 hours report on the BoM. Can anyone help with the location of the BoM past 24 hours.
10
I recorded a doco about Susan Boyle.
A fascinating woman.
5 minutes in up came the the turbines.
I had to delete.
Look at the dock about Frank Sinatra.California had turbines in the fifties inserted.
They were never there.
Who is doing the funding?
10
Could you translate this into American English? Or some reasonable facsimile?
Two people separated by a common language. Apologies to Winnie.
00
Question –
Does anyone have a link to the UEA person (can’t remember who) who said “the models are important, we don’t use a lot of empirical data”
Any help appreciated. Thanks in advance
10
What will take this whole farce off a cliff is the coming of a cool period. I discuss climate in a number of places and one commenter has noticed some of the Northern Hemisphere twitches this year and has said that the 2014 cooling Abdussamatov predicted may already be upon us.
It will be interesting to see what a noticeable cooling trend does to the “adjustments”.
20
“What will take this whole farce off a cliff is the coming of a cool period”
On the contrary, warmists are never convinced by evidence and they are even less convinced by observational ecidence in real time. If the planet froze over tomorrow they would simply say it was CO2 causing it and that the models predicted it.
This debate is a perfect analogue for science vs religion and in the same futile way that debate plays out, its an argument that cant be won, only watched.
10
Ecidence = evidence sorry. I blame the fact that I am typing away and its about -1 to 0c outside here at Beauty Point, the fire hasn’t got going yet and my fingers are freezing.
And on that note. We recently stopped using our “heat pump”(what Tasmanians call reverse cycle air con) and started chopping wood for our combustion heater. The cost of power made the switch a no brainer. So in true green policy fashion, the measure implemented to make power cheaper (the carbon tax/RET creating endless green energy) had the exact opposite effect and as a result we now pump out more emissions from our heating than if we were using the grid.
Thanks greens, your broken logic has made me a bit fitter from the wood chopping and the cat extremely happy because she always loved the wood heater.
CO2 emissions 1 – Green logic 0
10
handjive –
i’ve posted a korea times ETS update, with govt officials, on the previous “carbon tax” thread, along with major MSM coverage of the carbon tax repeal, which were more or less hidden way down in the google results. had to scan thru page after page to find some of them.
meanwhile,
18 July: WKRG: Cold temperatures break 128-year record in Mobile, AL
Forecasters say Mobile has broken a 128-year-old record with a low temperature of 64 degrees.
The National Weather Service says the low Thursday morning was 1 degree cooler than the low of 65 degrees set in 1886.
The weather service says Huntsville tied a record low for the date of 59 degrees set in 1945, and temperatures were in the mid- to upper 50s across north Alabama.
http://www.wkrg.com/story/26042860/cold-temps-break-128-year-record-in-mobile
18 July: Steven Goddard: Two Consecutive Summers Of Below Normal North Pole Temperatures
The North Pole is almost two thirds of the way through its melt season, and temperatures have been below normal every day this summer. Last summer, temperatures were also below normal every day…
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/18/two-consecutive-summers-of-below-normal-north-pole-temperatures/
10
I am not sure that the stated temp is necessarily wrong, I was visiting Hopetown just East of Albany in 2010 and the temp was 48 at 11.00 am and dropped to 28 one hour later when the sea breeze returned. there was quite a fuss as more that 100 Barnaby Cockatoos died of heat stress. When the wind blows out of the desert from the north west of Albany the temp can approach high 40’s every few years or so.
10
Love your screen name “Big_Nambas”.
Sounds like you’ve been to Vanuatu !
00
Sorry NORTH EAST
10
http://2degreesproject.com.au/Story/Endangered-cockatoos-cooked-then-battered-by-ice
Try this link for the reported heat wave and bird death.
10
Temperatures recorded by post masters in a Stevenson Screen are not reliable but you’re taking gossip as reality?
The recorded temperature was 48°C at Hopetoun and the hot winds didn’t make it worse. The temperature was so high because of them. They did not double from the previous day because of global warming.
00
Easy, I am not a warmist. I did not for one second think the high temps were caused by Global Warming. I only wished to point out that very hot days do occur in south west WA. I was there and it was HOT.
As soon as Flannery and his ilk started talking warming I knew that we were at the start of another ice age!!!
10
Sorry. I was reading the comments from the bottom up.
00
Big_Nambas @ 40/41/42 on Barnaby’s Cockatoo,
The topic of a relatively few deaths of this hard to distinguish sub-species of the populous WA black cockatoos mostly on Hopetoun golf course plus a smaller flock not far away on a very hot day is from my study, over-hyped and controversial. It seems that these two flocks were most likely affected by some other factor such as disease, poisoning or atypical thirst. The normal survival strategy in hot extremes is that black cockatoos roost motionless in the shade and are very robust doing so unless there is some such additional stressor as mentioned above. (And, that subspecies is widely distributed in WA, and is hard to distinguish from another black cockatoo in SE Oz)
I got interested when the ABC went nuts over it as proof of global warming on one of their TV Catalyst shows. I had email exchanges with Saunders and others revealing a certain shyness in their responses. There have for instance been some ill-informed arguments about the “invasion” of black cockatoos into Perth in recent years.
10
“invasion” of black cockatoos into Perth in recent years
I wish, we had a large flock of Black Cockatoos feed in a tree behind my home in the early 90’s but the flock that came last year was 5 birds.
01
Back to the tax …
Paul Kelly @theaustralian:
“Opposition Leader Bill Shorten this week breathed contempt, saying Abbott’s policy was a “boondoggle” for “internet trolls” and shock jocks.
Decoded: we will destroy direct action as ruthlessly as you destroyed the carbon tax.”
. . .
If ever there was a time and a call for Abbott to question the ‘science’ of Doomsday Global Warming, that would be it.
Abandon Direct Action.
Call for some sort of enquiry or debate into the science of 17+ years of NO WARMING, and leave GreenLaboUr owning that outcome and all the clean energy “boondoggles” it created when in government.
Sadly, it’s business as usual for the swindlers, and the climate fraud via the Direct Action boondoggle will continue.
Our parliament seems doomed to the malaise of party self-interest, as Kelly rightly notes.
20
An open public debate broadcast live with no manipulation/involvement from ABC, SBS, Getup styled left wing NGO’s, MSM presstitutes or environmental groups would be a minor miracle.
Of course the warmists wouldn’t show but who cares?, the public would then get unadulterated data from the likes of Bob Carter with no corrupting censorship to water down the message put forth.
Political parties should attend to argue their case and be accountable to the Australian public for their views.
00
Albany is my home town although I haven’t lived there for some years.
I remember a day there in 1968 when we had over 114 degrees F. That is about 46 degrees C!
Albany is not the cold, chilly town that people from other places in the state say it is.
00
Oh what a tangled web we weave! . . . . .
Geoff W. Sydney
00
I remember 2 absolute stinkers in Albany, one 1990 and another 1996. I saw a row of large eucalypts just die in the space of 4hrs. All passionfruit died in the area 1990.
Driving from the beach in 1996 we hit a wall of hot disturbed air. I reckon the temp went up 15C in 300 metres, it was soooo hot I went back to the beach.
Simon
00
Jo
This is the comparison between Albany’s raw data and Albany’s ACORN data for Feb, 1933.
Raw ACORN
23.5 25.5
26.1 29.6
26.8 30.4
28.9 35.2
22 23
27.9 33.3
27.7 32.8
44.8 51.2
32.4 38.8
27 30.8
23.5 25.5
22.9 24.2
24.6 27
27 30.8
26.2 28.9
25.4 28.2
25.3 28
24.2 26.5
24.6 27
26.1 29.6
25.7 28.5
22.1 23.1
22.6 23.9
23.2 25
25.7 28.5
23.3 25.2
22 23
22.2 23.2
44.8 51.2
22 23
25.8 28.8
I think the figures speak for themselves.
Raw data source
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_nccObsCode=122&p_stn_num=009500&p_c=-18115398&p_startYear=1933
ACORN data source
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn/sat/data/acorn.sat.maxT.009741.daily.txt
10
man.. there’s something weird going on there.
looks like Acorn is actually much higher.. the opposite of “adjustments” everywhere else.
10
Still waiting for the day when the first amongst many leaders of the AHW scam is put behind bars with many more to follow, political or scientific. This is clearly the biggest scam of the history of mankind. It makes Bernard Madoff’s scam pale almost into insignificance in comparison.
00
… meant to say AGW scam (but then I suppose AHW could stand for Almighty Hoax of the World).
00
Well that’s just great! … well get Capt Phillip on the blower … we’re going to have to evacuate to Antarctica … wot? … wadyamean by “record sea ice extent”?! … hmm, I see … well, you’re just have to to innovate and overcome … oh, hang on a sec! … I’ve just been informed we have cheap ubiquitous technologies called roofs, windows, ceiling fans and air conditioners … looks like we may be OK … but hey, maybe we should invest in a fleet of icebreakers anyhoo? … like, in case the shade and copious ventilation fails and takes out Nemo or something … and get the Indonesian Ambassador in here, we need to pick his brains about how they manage to survive at the equator, with the hottest, most humid and most populated and biologically vibrant Islands on Earth … something is just plain wrong about that!
00
I was at the Cultana Army Base on exercise The end of 1980 (or 81) when we had a week where the temperatures did not fall below 100F day or night.
On the hottest day I checked the Wet Dry thermometer which read 52 in the shade. I remember it vividly because that was the same day the powers that be decided to take the regiment on a route march during which a third dropped out from heat exhaustion and I was telling everyone the temperature reading I had observed.
I cannot attest to the accuracy of the thermometer in question but it did have two gauges one of which was attached to a wick leading to a water receptacle.
00
Mildura also had 50.7 celsius on 7 January 1906, but as it was before 1910 the BOM ignores it
00
Brian
It still shows up here in the BoM’s climate statistics but has been ‘adjusted’.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_076077_All.shtml
This is the BoM’s explanation why it is not recognised.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/90annual/techprogram/paper_155748.htm
00
Just like Sydney gets hotter when the Blue Mountains are ablaze, maybe a nearby shrubfire caused Albany to warm up in Feb. 1933?
00
Cloncurry Qld held the highest shade temperature record of 53.1C (127.5F)recorded on 16 Jan 1889.
Source : Guinness Book of Records 1991 with Australian Supplement, p329.
It appears that there are a few high temp records that BOM doesn’t recognise.
There is an earlier post on this site detailing the hottest temps recorded in Australia.
The ACORN data comparison in post #48 illustrates how much upward “adjustment” is being made. The adjusted ACORN data has a monthly average of almost 3 degreesC hotter which to me is also incredibly suspect. Also noted at #12.
In my opinion, a comprehensive independent audit is long overdue on Australan taxpayer funded organisations BOM/CSIRO.
with particular rigorous scrutiny into whether any climate data “adjustments” are valid or spurious.
I believe that we, the Australian taxpayers, have a right to call for integrity.
COMPREHENSIVE AUDIT. Bring it on.
00