JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
I want you to look at this as an indicator of current World thinking.
This current UNFCCC COP20/CMP10 conference in Lima Peru has found $10 Billion for renewable power in Developing Countries.
In 1992, the UNFCCC with its Kyoto Protocol decided that there would be Developed Countries and Developing Countries. There are now 196 Member Countries. 43 of those are considered Developed and from those, 24 (Australia included) are listed as the Countries which have to pay for everything. Now this decision made in 1992 has come back to bite them all very firmly on their collective fundament, because the remaining 153 Countries need do nothing other than report their emissions and accept that UN largesse, making Kyoto all but impossible to replace as not one of those 153 Countries (China and India foremost among them) want to be moved into the other group.
This $10 Billion is now supposedly being earmarked for renewable power in those Developing Countries, and in actual fact, is such a pittance that it’s almost at the ‘who cares’ stage.
Who has got their hands up to get a slice of that $10 Billion? (and here’s that indicator I mentioned at the top of my Comment)
It’s certainly not those Developing Countries. So then, tell me, would those Countries have an inkling that this form of power is all but useless for them. Otherwise, they would be clamouring to have renewable power in their Countries.
My guess would be that the only entities with their hands up saying “pick me, pick me”, would be those renewable power plant constructing entities. They know a good deal with other people’s money when they see it.
Those Developing Countries want what we already have, access to reliable and constant electrical power, power that can actually lead to development in their Countries. Hand over fist, those Countries which actually can, are building large scale coal fired power, huge Hydro, large scale natural gas fired power plants, and the like, and in fact, when it comes to renewables of choice, wind and solar, they just offer lip service.
Even now, there are Developed Countries (Germany and Japan foremost among them) bucking the trend and building new coal fired power on a large scale, while other Countries introduce draconian measures to ensure coal fired power does not get built.
Renewable plant constructors are going gang busters in those Countries where ‘seeming’ is more than ‘doing’, in those already Developed Countries, Countries where they know they have access to huge amounts of Government money and get contracts for the sale of electricity that all other forms of power generation just dream of.
Some of those still Developing Countries have a good case for knocking back any attempts to shift them to where they would have to pay, so that’s why China and India especially will be painted as the sticking points at any of these future UNFCCC conferences. The loud voices will proclaim success at these conferences, where this is none, but really, they cut their own throat, and now they can’t fix it, no matter what they do.
No, still Developing Countries want access to reliable power, and all the UN offers them are baubles and toys.
Tony.
480
Consensus from a species that cannot achieve world peace???
Well, blow me down!
110
Worked for the UN in the early 90’s and saw corruption at digger level, so would loathe to know how deep it was at the top, even then.
I ran generators, field and camp power, plus field engineer/soldier duties. If they had of given us solar panels instead of 125KVA genies and above, we’d have been in the dark for sure. Which would have been bad.
Won’t wear the beret, or medals.
Always enjoy your work Tony.
360
My Father fought for his country in WW11 in FNQ, TI, New Britain – Rabaul, PNG – Wewak etc in the RAE.
Lost his health as a result.
Went there to do his bit but after never wore medals or marched on ANZAC day so as to avoid giving any support to politicians.
Marches and political clap trap do not replace dead or injured soldiers.
Wars suck.
KK
180
Kinky Keith,
Politicians, especially the conservative Bruce Government, including Robert Menzies and Richard Casey (elevated to Lord Casey), let us down before WW2, partly because they were bound to Britain in their thinking.
Thank goodness your father and his mates responded to the threat and fought that war. We owe them! New Guinea was the first turning point of the Pacific War.
Wars may Suck, but I am glad that your fathers and others decided that it was worth fighting!
150
Now we seem to live in a different world. Today we’d rather be overrun by terrorists than fight them. In 1941 the whole country would have been mobilized by Roosevelt if 9/11 had happened then. And the country would have been behind him. Now it’s only those who step up and volunteer. They’re never enough and now they’re being sent home before the job is done. As a consequence we’re losing the present war, much to our detriment.
And that sucks a whole lot more than the war itself does.
80
My son just informed me that there is an ISIL or whatever hostage situation in Sydney at a Max Brenner outlet.
More bad news.
KK
30
Terrible btw it is a Lindt Cafe.
40
I got up a little while ago and after checking email I went online only to be faced with the headline, Hostage Situation in Sydney.
The video didn’t give much information and particularly whether or not it was suspected to be terrorism. But supposedly there are three bombs within the cafe.
These days I try not to bog myself down in the endless reporting of things like this because it only drags me down and doesn’t help the situation a bit in the process. So I don’t go looking for every source, of which by now there must be a lot to choose from. But I hope for a good ending, at least as good an ending as something like this can have.
Roy
30
I hate to say it but ISIS is something that needs to be wiped out right down to the last adherent to that fanatical, bloodthirsty cause, whether or not the Sydney situation is ISIS. Civilization cannot stand with that disease in its midst.
The war has come to us. Will we recognize it and fight as we should or will we continue to dodge the issue, excuse it away and hope someone else will deal with it?
40
Roy,
the person involved apparently has a long history of very bad and criminal behaviour.
The fact that he was not already in jail says a lot about our so called “justice” system.
It has become a slave to PC – Vote Catching and offers little protection for Joe average.
Two innocent victims dead as a result of societies failure to act realistically.
KK
20
No bombs. But two civilians killed, and the Gunman taken out.
From what I can gather, a shot was fired, from somewhere, and the SWAT team just responded as they are trained to do. We don’t know it the dead civilians were victims of the gunman, or collateral damage from the attack.
The Media is all over the fact that the Gunman was Iranian. Nobody thinks to ask if he had been radicalised, they just assumed he was.
Turns out he was armed with a shotgun, which, while a frightening weapon to face, only gives you two shots, unless you have time, and the space in which to reload. (Nobody has mentioned a pump action).
To me, he sounds more like a nutter, than somebody who has gone through the training camps. But that won’t fit with the Media sense of self-importance, or their superior notions of what a terrorist should look like, and how they should behave.
10
“the Gunman was Iranian.”
Some of my closest colleagues at work are Iranians.
They are some of the nicest, kindest, gentlest natured people I have ever met.
One was in tears when we were discussing this incident at lunch time.
Unfortunately, there are nutters in all societies. 🙁
IMO, this incident will only bring Australian society closer together….. all parts of society.
10
Griss the failure here has been the politicised “justice” system which is run so as to maximise voting trends for politicians; not Iranian immigrants.
On good people; I can remember the Iraq invasion. An Iraqi who had lost his daughter to an American Bomb spoke in a television interview.
He was a most extra ordinary person.
There are good people every where!
KK
00
I am truly sorry to hear that 2 of the hostages were killed along with the terrorist.
I keep wondering why we can’t find it within us to define a point where we deport or imprison such people as you faced in Sydney. He was long overdue for being stopped.
I get it that prior restraint based on what you think someone might do is not a desirable thing — even a bad thing. But dammit, there is a limit to my patience with terrorists. They give us so much warning of the impending disaster and we fool ourselves that we’re better off leaving them walking our streets until they strike. And after the event we fool ourselves even more by trying to rationalize the act of terrorism with such nonsense as, gee whizz folks, he’s just a freedom fighter or a poor misguided kid who took a wrong turn.
Well no, he isn’t a freedom fighter, he’s a pathological killer, taught and trained to hate and do cold blooded murder. No way can we succeed by fooling ourselves anymore about the need to get them off the streets before they do any harm.
10
Rereke,
When faced with an armed “nutter” as he may well be, you cannot assume anything but the worst, that he intends to kill. I understand that he made demands but have heard nothing of what his threat was if the demands were not met. But the death of one or more hostages is the only possible implication.
The facts can only be sorted out after the event. I don’t know if there was an opportunity for a clear kill shot by a good sniper. But if there was, I would have taken it and ended the thing the easiest possible way.
As for the media, what should we expect? Only the juiciest stuff intended to get the best possible ratings, right? 🙁
10
By the way, I also have friends, and professional colleagues, around the world, who are Iranian, and they all appalled by what happened in Martin Place.
In my previous comment, wanted to present the known facts, and my analysis, at that point, without allowing my own feelings to intrude. And yes, Nutter is a defined term.
00
Keith,
Thanks for referring to the supposed terrorist group as ISIL, and not ISIS.
The full name for ISIL is Islamic State of Iran and the Levant, which was the geography of the original Caliphate at it zenith. It is a radicalised group of fighters.
ISIS is the abbreviation for the Institute for Science and International Security, a charitable organisation funded by the MacArthur Foundation. Among other things, they try to monitor and analyse the illicit movement of nuclear fuel.
Yet one more thing that the media just can’t seem to get right.
10
Hi RW
When I used that term I had no real idea of what the distinctions were, so just coincidence, no specific thought on my part.
Seems he was just a lone nutter BUT one who had been radicalized by osmosis rather than direct instruction.
There are and will be many like him.
I believe he was only on the loose because of the need of politicians to placate certain groups within society so as to maximize votes come election time.
Cynical.
KK
00
It is my understanding that the group Rereke says (correctly) should be called ISIL, has also referred to itself as ISIS. And the first reference to it that I remember was to ISIS, not ISIL. And here the chief user of the name ISIL is the president which should be no surprise to anyone.
That ISIS may stand for more than one thing is a coincidence, in this case perhaps unfortunate but coincidence nevertheless.
I have a personal distaste for granting any legitimacy to the name ISIL because it includes Israel, a place that was home to the Jews at least several thousand years before Islam ever appeared. So who has the greater claim on that small piece of land on the Mediterranean coast? I think it’s Israel.
10
The 1992 Protocol was only agreed because the developing nations were exempted from obligations to reduce emissions.
As you point out we have reached the stage where the contradiction implied can no longer be fudged. And you are perfectly right, they do not want windmills and solar panels.
How many years now have you been painfully demonstrating that renewables (apart from Hydro) are useless. They know that the objective of de-carbonisation is impossible with existing technology however the pursuit of the impossible has the virtue of perpetual activity without consequential outcomes (apart from economic, social and moral dereliction).But ask yourself – without “climate change” what OTHER issue affects the globe enough to exercise such World Forums? What possible use is the UN and how can the (equally impossible) goal of world governance be advanced? So the circus will continue. Science, Engineering and Economics are all irrelevant to the discourse taking place. There will be no agreement because nobody actually wants one since the deep purpose of the whole issue is control of the worlds resources and prevention of third world “development” This is not possible without serious conflict. With respect Scaper @ 5.17, the level of armed conflict is, by magnitudes, lower than any time in recorded history. So let them go on worrying about a catastrophe in 50 years. It cut no ice with me having lived through the events of 24-26th October 1962, which inspired Stanley Kubric to make “Dr. Stranglove”.
Oct 25th was football training night after which we discussed what we would do with the max. 5 minutes notice we would get of immolation. The concensus converged on the more primeval aspirations of young fit males. 50 years on the Old Adam is still there but is appreciative that the climate catastrophe grants a longer lead time.
140
Dr. Strangelove!
Man, what a movie that was. Absolutely one of the best movies of all time. While it would be classified as a dramedy these days, it was such a dark movie, and done brilliantly in black and white by Stanley Kubrick, with a stellar cast.
One of three movies I would watch every time it came on, this and Apocalypse Now, and Citizen Kane. I could never tire of those three movies.
Tony.
90
My favourite line was from George C Scott, echoing Curtis Lemay ( and studying his future role as George Patten),
“I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed. I do say, no more that 10 – 20 million dead – tops! – depending on the breaks”.
And a lovely understatement : ” I hate to judge before the facts are in, but it looks as if General Ripper has exceeded his authority” – (and started world war three!)
70
“One of three movies I would watch every time it came on, this and Apocalypse Now, and Citizen Kane. I could never tire of those three movies.”
With you there Tony. All 3 operating on multiple levels at all times. Dr Strangelove is almost disturbing in its (in my opinion) accuracy of predictions regarding human behaviours under stress either real or perceived.
40
No fighting in the War-room!
youtube.com/watch?v=UAeqVGP-GPM
10
Hydro is near useless, unless you have very high mountains and very low population or a lot of water at real altitude. Melbourne could drain the Snowy scheme in a few days and it would take a year to recover but it is also the essential water for all the communities along the Murray with floods followed by drought. In Tasmania they pump the water back uphill at night. Now what good is hydro for most flat countries with low rainfall? So hydro usually acts as a quick response filler on a base load but is little good otherwise and the function has been replaced by gas turbines.
80
But if you HAVE mountains AND a lot of water at high altitudes, like China, Canada and Norway – and- for that matter- the US Rockies – it is not useless, it also doubles for irrigation use. Pumped storage is the only practical way of equalising intermittent generation. See Tonys posts on Chinese hydro.
However the practical geography is very limited.
120
In its own way, hydro is as limited as solar and wind. So why make the exception for Hydro if most countries cannot use it for much of their needs? Solar and Wind have their uses too in the right places at the right times. Hydro though is only 6% of the US grid and at the other end of the population scale, Norway has only the population of Sydney. Irrigation is a given for dams anyway so not a benefit of hydro as such and simultaneously a limitation on outflow and it takes at least a year to renew the stored water, which practically limits its use. Power generation from dams is more a why not than a why, an opportunity which should not be lost, even for low lying water. This happens with Lake Baikal at Irkutsk on the Angara river. Lake Baikal was raised a meter to increase output, drowning parts of the old Trans Siberian rail line in the process. My point is that as a general solution to world energy needs it is as useless on balance as other renewables.
50
And New Zealand (Lower South Island) – excuse me!
We have huge hydro lakes, that are full* for most of the year, and are great for water sports. You should see the amount of petrol burnt by the waterski boats, and the jet-boats, and the jet-skis, and it all has to get trucked in. All that lovely CO2 helps the bush to grow, as a bonus.
The lakes are in series on the rivers, so you get to use the water pressure several times.
*Depending upon your definition of “full”, and the particular lobby group doing the defining, to make todays political point. In the engineering sense, “Capable of running the turbines at full power”.
100
My point exactly. As SlartyBartfast from Restaurant at the End of the Universe explained in creating the fun wiggly bits which are fjords, New Zealand is very close to the Norway example, lot of mountains and few people, especially in the South. A lot of fun yes but only 1 million live on the South Island, so the population of Adelaide which is near dead flat. In fact the whole of NZ only has the population of Melbourne which has no mountains at all, unless you redefine hills as mountains as we have done. So hydro is not always useless if you are lucky enough to have this situation, which few countries have. As a general solution, it is useless. The inconvenient truth is that solar, wind and hydro are all inconvenient energy. Useless is possibly too strong a word.
70
Actually Adelaide wins the hydro challenge. The size of the South Island in population, no water and no mountains and surrounded by flat desert. Lots of solar during the day.
30
Actually the rudely name Slartibartfast was in the first book, the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. Did a great job though. He knew nothing of hyrdo.
20
I think I’ve mentioned this before, Rereke, and you should really take it aboard.
We can only string so many dams in series down a river in NZ, because we have to let the water run 25 miles to get its electricity back.
I know this, because I overheard my Dad telling an American tourist this most useful tidbit of information many years ago. 🙂
20
Yes Dave, I acknowledge that. But it is the fall between the lakes that is important, not the actual distance between the dams (although they are obviously related). At a guess, if your father mentioned 25 miles, he was probably talking about the Clutha power scheme?
00
Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the war room.
150
Some this was meant for diogenese2’s earlier post.
20
Do they do that? That is pumped hydro. I am not aware of any such scheme operating in Australia.
40
You should visit the power station at Talbingo NSW and take the tour.
40
Didn’t the greens stop the second stage of the Gordon power scheme, and now Tas. imports ‘dirty’ Yallorn power through a cable across Bass Strait which was originally intended to make some money at peak times for the state?
40
TdeF
There are two hydro technologies. Those like the Snowy are high head. There is also low head, which needs a lot of water. Have a look at Sobradinho near Petrolina in Brasil on Google Earth or equivalent
40
As with Lake Baikal with 20% of the world’s fresh water. Low head but incredible volumes.
20
In passing, the energy Russians are very good with energy. They use hydro everywhere and add it to the grid backed up by nuclear. The entire length of the Trans Siberian railway is electric. Amazing.
20
The basic formula is ρgHQη (η = turbine efficiency, usually around 0.8 – 0.9)
00
I keep remembering that that’s about the time period during which Khrushchev was parading empty missile canisters around Red Square because he had nothing to put in them. So I wonder how dangerous those days really were. Khrushchev certainly had some bombs at his disposal. But I’ve always believed he knew he had as much to lose in a shooting war as we had, possibly more. The consequences of an atomic bomb were very well demonstrated by the only two that have ever been used against anyone anywhere.
What is clear is that Kennedy was scared nearly out of his wits. But he kept his head and had the good judgment to offer Khrushchev something as an inducement to back down. And the thing was ended without a shot being fired.
More recently I saw some news footage of those missiles on parade and it struck me that those carriers bounced up and down over the rough spots as though they were lighter than they would be with something inside the canister. That’s hardly proof of anything but it’s evidence as good as what the climate change folks want us to believe.
Looking back on it I would certainly rather not have had to go through it, however.
90
Yes, Kennedy and Khrushchev were perfect yang-yin counterparts. Take either one of them out of the equation and disaster might have been the outcome.
40
JK,
Kennedy and Khrushchev were both “taken out of the equation” very promptly directly thereafter, one a year later in an old fashioned ambush/ turkey shoot, and the other “deposed” due to “erratic policies” a year after that.
Perhaps some higher power was less than impressed with the potential scale of the consequences should that stalemate have ended badly.
41
Winston,
Actually Kennedy wasn’t exactly a hawk. He refused to provide the air cover his predecessor, Eisenhower, had promised for the Bay of Pigs invasion. Actually he did provide some but pulled his punch and didn’t do the full job. Consequently the invasion force was literally destroyed on the beach.
Whether the invasion could have succeeded if it could have gotten a foothold because the Cuban forces were suppressed from the air is another question. But it was certainly doomed because of the inadequate air power when it landed on the beach.
I think any president with the possible (no maybe probable) exception of Obama would have done as Kennedy did if faced with nuclear missiles being put into Cuba.
The idea of equipping Cuban refugees and then supporting them in an attempt to take back their homeland may look attractive. But the wisdom of it was dubious from the very beginning. Had we not given in to the refugees’ demand to cut off all contact with Cuba and continued to allow trade and travel, I think Castro would have fallen into oblivion years ago. Others may differ but nothing succeeds like the people being able to see what a freer life could offer them.
20
I would probably be right in assuming you read this last week Tony.
I was simply stunned at the ramifications of what they are about to initiate.
And for those that haven’t read it, read on.
“With just a 48-hour notice delivered by a personal phone call to Ms. Merkel on a Saturday, the CEO of E.ON, the largest German and European power producer, let it be known that the company had decided to split itself in two, one part grouping fossil and nuclear power generation and a second part encompassing the “politically correct” activities in the field of “renewable” energies. Sort of a “Bad E.ON” / “Good E.ON” move.
It appears the lights in Germany may go out in the near future.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/10/the-unsinkable-german-anti-co2-titanic-just-found-its-iceberg/
130
Arguing this with a friend of my partner’s the other day. I suggested Africa etc should be allowed and even supported to develop their fossil fuel assets and enjoy the same passage out of poverty the west has enjoyed. His suggestion “if your so worried why don’t you do something genuinely positive and send them a couple of solar panels”
Such is the complete disconnect of understanding or care that is true of about 75% of the people I speak to. They are a lot less worried about AGW than they are that someone with brown skin might get ahead in life at their expense…
Makes you ashamed to be a white westerner sometimes I swear.
111
This it seems is where the developing Pacific islands are headed as they ‘upgrade‘ to renewables. They take climate change very seriously, indeed to the point conserving of angular momentum.
61
They would do better to adopt the Falklands approach of throttling the wind turbines to get a steadier output. This uses the blade motors to adjust the angle, giving less output when the wind is strong but allowing the same output as the wind drops. This has allowed the Falklands to reduce diesel usage by 30% or more than you would get with unrestricted wind supply.
Of course, even better results would be possible if you throttled those wanting to install these damn unreliable, expensive environmental disasters.
111
Tony,
The Kyoto agreement was based on a view of the world 30-40 years ago. Then, over half of global emissions and economic output originated from countries with 10% of the global population. Since then countries with over 50% of the global population have experienced unprecedented levels of economic growth. The growth is so great that global emissions will double between 1990 and 2020. Through to 2050 emissions could double again.
The only way to reduce emissions back to 1990 levels is for all the major emerging economies (China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil etc.) to reverse much of their emissions increases and many of the laggards (Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Argentina etc.) to stop any further emissions increases as well). Of course, any effective global agreement would have to include Russia, Iran, Iraq, Ukraine, Venezuela, etc.
70
25 sept. 2014
Dr Jeff Sabburg from the Bureau of Meteorology says there are no drought-breaking rains on the horizon for Queensland
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-25/qld-weather-outlook/5769120
14 December, 2014
Heavy rain in central Queensland celebrated as ‘a blessing’ for drought-declared areas
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-13/storm-warnings-for-central-queensland-welcomed-by-mayor/5965238
~ ~ ~
And we haven’t seen any “97% certified extreme” cyclones yet!
250
Darn, BOM’s coin landed the wrong way up, yet again !!!!
Maybe it is somewhat weighted. 😉
231
I’d say the BOM’s got a double header, more likely from club-X though. 🙂
80
I’m thinking more like an excess of tails.
50
God has a sense of humour.
40
THE griss,
Maybe it’s just the same as every other Lefty/Green tool – two-faced…
81
I would call Longreach central QLD with Barcaldine Winton Muttaburra etc
Still hard there comrades.
80
Rain in California and Queensland at the same time. El Nini/La Nina? The BOM and NOAA have it right again.
11
A new religious order has been proposed: The Little Sisters of the Pause.
100
This comment evolved after searching for info on Abbott’s $200M gifting to the UN-IPCC …
… remembering Kevin Rudd gifting UN-IPCC boss R Pachuri some millions of tax payer funds to fight Doomsday Global Warming.
~ ~ ~
Well, I found the most extraordinary claim from the CSIRO:
“Our solar cooling system is a low emissions alternative to conventional air conditioning and gas or electric powered heating, providing more comfortable homes, reduced energy bills and a cooler planet.
Say What? A cooler planet?
(that requires a “double take” from an expert)
~ ~ ~
It starts; November 12, 2009
Australia pledges $70 mn for research projects in India
“A FIRM HANDSHAKE: Australia PM Kevin Rudd with Director General of TERI Rajendra Pachauri, in New Delhi.
Amidst a shadow of attacks on Indians, Rudd pledged generous funding for collaborative research.
The solar cooling research project, a joint project between Australian agency Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and TERI, aims to develop a zero emission solar cooling system for use in remote rural communities in un-electrified areas.
The Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research will be supporting research into dry land farming in India with $20 million over five years.”
http://www.thehindu.com/business/australia-pledges-70-mn-for-research-projects-in-india/article47290.ece
~ ~ ~
And so, ‘oogle that CSIRO work:
July 19, 2013
Solar Cooling for Australian Homes
“Our solar cooling system is a low emissions alternative to conventional air conditioning and gas or electric powered heating, providing more comfortable homes, reduced energy bills and a cooler planet.”
But, the success is in the comments:
sue December 8, 2014 at 2:28 pm
HI Claire, any further updates? Sue, NSW
Claire Manson December 9, 2014 at 10:18 am
Sorry Sue, nothing new to report right now.
The trial is still going and if successful we will then seek a commercial partner, still many years away unfortunately.
https://blogs.csiro.au/climate-response/stories/solar-cooling-for-australian-homes/
. . .
Cooling the planet?
They are serious.
Then again, 18+ years of ‘hiatus’ …
100
The ‘Gore Effect’ knows no bounds, I want him to personally tell me I won’t win Tattslotto, cha-ching!
80
Regarding the csiro-solar-cooling thing – looks like the plan is to take very old concepts (passive solar & evaporative cooling [aka swamp cooling]) and fancy it up with technology that will raise the price above the ability of the intended audience. Then with other people’s money give the things away. As soon as any part fails the thing becomes trash because there won’t be follow-up funds to repair them. Good plan! (and now years without progress)
~~~~~
cooling the planet – Wrong! The solar collector must have a low albedo (a dark surface) compared to most other things, such as light colored rock, sand, housing. So shortwave solar is converted to hot water that adds energy to the system rather than being reflected back to space. They must be smoking something.
30
sunday morning in Lima & down to 4 pages.
developing nations didn’t back down, but the final report is as MEANINGLESS as the CAGW scare itself:
14 Dec: RTE Ireland: Robinson criticises Lima climate change talks
The text appeased developing countries, including China and India, concerned that previous drafts would impose too heavy a burden on emerging economies compared to the rich in a global effort to address climate change.
“We’ve got what we wanted,” said Indian Environment Minister Prakash Javedekar, who said the text preserves the notion that the rich have to lead the way in making cuts in emissions, breaking deadlock at the negotiations.
He said the deal at the end of the two-week talks also makes it clear that rich countries would have to provide financial support to developing countries.
The pledges:
– Should be submitted by the first quarter of 2015 by “those parties ready to do so”, and as soon as possible thereafter by the rest.
– Will be self-determined.
– Must improve on a nation’s current carbon-cutting undertakings.
– May include information on the base year used as a reference for emissions cuts, time frame for implementation, and the methodology for calculating the numbers.
– Will be published on the website of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
– Will be assessed by the UNFCCC secretariat, which will prepare a report by November 1, 2015, on their aggregate effect on the UN goal to curb global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels…
They need not:
– Include information on rich countries’ planned financial assistance for developing nations, as requested by many, though the text “urges” such support.
– Detail assistance for developing nations’ climate adaptation plans. Parties are merely invited to “consider including an adaptation component”…
Least developed countries and small island developing states are exempt from pledging, but may communicate information on low-emissions strategies if they wish.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/1214/666707-climate/
it doesn’t bear thinking that this farce will continue nonetheless!
60
14 Dec: BBC: UN members agree climate deal at Lima talks
The final draft is said to have alleviated those concerns with by saying countries have “common but differentiated responsibilities”.
“We’ve got what we wanted,” Indian environment minister Prakash Javedekar told reporters, saying the document preserved the notion that richer nations had to lead the way in making cuts in emissions.
It also restored a promise to poorer countries that a “loss and damage” scheme would be established to help them cope with the financial implications of rising temperatures.
However, it weakened language on national pledges, saying countries “may” instead of “shall” include quantifiable information showing how they intend to meet their emissions targets.
Sam Smith, chief of climate policy for the environmental group WWF, said: “The text went from weak to weaker to weakest and it’s very weak indeed.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30468048
100
Pat
I read on Climate Depot that these extremely important talks (sarc !!) where held in a temporary village established on an army base and it had all it’s energy requirements met by diesel generators. These hypocrites are trying to tell how to run our energy policies !!!
20
Merry Christmas one and all!
Games are a favourite Christmas activity, so I thought I’d play one.
I’d like to predict (as far as I can) what the Central England Temperature average reading for December 2014 will be. No computer models, no fancy statistics, just a plain inspection of the record’s figures and a bit of simple arithmetic.
From January to November inclusive, the monthly averages in degrees Centigrade for 2014 are 5.7, 6.2, 7.6, 10.2, 12.2, 15.1, 17.7, 14.9, 15.1, 12.5 and 8.6.
The hottest average for a year was 2006, showing 10.82⁰C.
So, assuming that we hit this figure again, let’s have a look at what December may bring.
My calculation comes to 4.04⁰C, but I’m going to round off this figure (four hundredths of a degree means nothing) – so, I suggest that December’s CET temperature will be 4⁰C at the most, but in all likelihood less than that, since I doubt we’re going to see the record average of 2006 again this year.
Four degrees Centigrade for December? Not at all an unusual figure, and that’s going right back to the 1600s.
The coldest December ever was -0.8⁰C in 1890, and the warmest was 8.1⁰C in 1934.
So, there it is. My non-IPCC approved temperature prediction!
90
Though it would not matter how cold it got it will still turn out to be the most/2nd/3rd hottest year on record.
The Thames could freeze over and it would still be a hot record.
50
December 24, 2012
THE introduction of smart meters in Victoria may have been a costly exercise for consumers but it has proven an impressive money spinner for a handful of Australian entrepreneurs.
Cameron O’Reilly, the scion of the Heinz food empire and former chief of media group APN, along with John B. Fairfax, the Smorgon family and Kerry Stokes are a few of the high-profile names to have made a killing from the sale of smart meters.
They were major shareholders of Landis + Gyr, the company that amassed about 56 per cent of the market in deals to supply the electricity distributors in Victoria.
Their big payday came in 2011 when O’Reilly sold Landis + Gyr to Toshiba for $US2.3 billion.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/smart-meters-but-at-whose-expense-20121223-2btjd.html
~ ~ ~
Saturday 14 December 2014
Victorian households will be forced to pay increased fees of up to $200 on their electricity bills next year, after the Australian Energy Regulator approved power company requests.
Three out of five of the state’s major energy distributors submitted requests to increase the fees as a result of budget overruns related to the rollout of smart meters.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-13/victorian-electricity-users-to-pay-new-fee-for-smart-meter-cost/5965144
. . .
Wake up Australia.
150
Did not Julie Bishop find 200 million for some purpose? Why not use a little for the devastated households mentioned by the VCOSS’s Emma King?
10
Hi Jo. Well it’s the 14th of December which, I think, most people would agree is mid-December. I just thought it would be interesting to have a look at how the Ebola “crisis” is going now that the media seem to have forgotten about it and moved onto the scary global warming festival in Peru.
Latest stats from the WHO show Guinea reported 103 new cases for the week to 7th December which seems to be stable. Liberia reported 29 new cases to 3rd December which appears to be showing a rapid fall in new cases. Sierra Leone remains a problem with 397 new cases reported to 7th December which is about the same as it has been for a while with most new cases reported from Freetown and surrounding districts. Interestingly the 2 most southern districts have only reported 1 case since 1st November. I wounder if there is a cultural difference between these districts and the rest of the country?
So to date there has been a total of just over 17,000 cases since the start of the outbreak in January with a death rate of 71%.
Now remember back to October at the height of the UN sponsored media hysteria. We were told that Ban Ki Moon needed 1 billion dollars to fight Ebola. Numerous UN officials at press conferences stated that there would be 10,000 new cases per week by mid December and 1.4 million cases in total by the end of the year unless the world did something. The last dire pronouncement I heard was that international community only had 60 days to act.
WHAT A BUNCH OF CRAP! I said it at the time and I’ll say it again, the UN cynically used a serious health issue in West Africa to whip up the hysteria in order to fill its coffers. Same tactic they use with climate change but instead of having to act in a few decades the time line was compressed to a few months.
By the way, the WHO has so far received 186.8 million dollars to fight Ebola, so not quite the 1 billion Ban Ki was after. To put it into perspective our idiot government just gave the UN 200 million dollars to help the bloated climate change department stumble on to their next big talk fest.
What grieves me most about all this is that I am 100% certain that there are perhaps 200,000 children in Africa who will be dead by this time next year, not from Ebola or climate change, but for want of 50 cents worth of mosquito netting and some decent mosquito eradication programs that we know work to prevent Malarial infection.
With all the money being thrown around in Peru at the moment one thing is certain, the UN xmas and new years parties in Geneva and New York will be up to their usual lavish, celebrity attended, standard with those of superior moral virtue parading themselves in front of a media ever eager to confirm the righteousness of these people. It’s one hell of a world we find ourselves in!
190
Still a work-in-progress but nevertheless I’ve gone public with my suggestion to Nuke Kwinana.
I can think of no other place that deserves it more, given that the new Victorian government and SA policies have disqualified Whyalla for potentially useful, brown-field redevelopment.
40
Thanks Bernd,
Interesting.
Could you answer this point. In your article you say in relation to stockpiling resources ” A whole year’s worth of coal is unfeasible”
But why is it unfeasible? Indeed we have 100 years worth of resource available. Why not leave it stockpiled underground until needed? All that is needed is a stockpile of equipment to dig it up.
50
In W.A.; because it’s “stockpiled” hundreds of kilometres from the power stations.
That’s why most large coal-fired power stations are right next to the coal mines (used to be).
You need a stockpile for a reasonable period because the supply of coal isn’t “automatic”. There are lots of vulnerable points in the supply chain; plenty of risks to the accessability of coal from known reserves, where the rules of access change quickly. And suitable coal from other sources may be prohibitively expensive.
It’s a problem that e.g. Germany is about to face because the (lignite) coal mines owned by Vattenfall is likely to be closed because Vattenfall has to divest itself of coal resources under new Red/Green Swedish law which regulates the extra-territorial activities of companies based in Sweden. [I don’t know why Vattenfall don’t move to Luxembourg, like so many others. Maybe energy supply in socialist Sweden is only permissible by domestic companies.]
If nobody buys the coal mines from Vattenfall, no coal gets mined. And power stations may have to shut down because moth balls aren’t a good fuel.
In Western Australia, the coal miners aren’t working for the people who burn the coal. Sometimes they work for companies about to go bust; or nearly so.
If there’s industrial action, then the supply of coal from the mine stops. The power station’s own stockpiles may be enough to run for days to a couple of weeks. 1 GWh requires about 150 tonnes of coal to be burnt, depending on the type of power station and coal. 150 tonnes requires about 200 m³ of stockpile. Or up to 3 train carriages. A 60,000 tonne pile (not at a power station) would last about a fortnight at that rate.
50
Want to say a little about the word “denier”. I know that you guys and Jo in particular have discussed this before. Since I usually talk about my experiences this time will say something about the experience of my father when he was a young boy. In his family history book he wrote about Jews being marched to the nearby camp Treblinka. He saw kilometres of people dragged to the camp, heard the noise of crying children and smelled the stench of death. If anyone including Germans that lived In the vicinity of such camps will say that they did not know they are lying. My dad when he was 6 years old knew.
Years later I went to Treblinka on the primary school history trip (I was only 10 years old) and saw 2 meters high piramid of human ashes. Then in my secondary history classroom instead of perhaps Learnado da Vinci reproductions celebrating humanity I was surrounded by maps of concentration camps each represented by the size of cross depending on how many people died at the site. In addition photographs of pile of corpses was displayed on the walls.
Then I discovered that I was a denier.
140
U.N.’s Lima Climate Talks Have Biggest Carbon Footprint Ever
50
And again we must bring up the obvious, well, at least obvious to anyone capable of rational thought.
If CO2 and your “carbon footprint” actually held any danger as they claim then these people wouldn’t be carrying on like they are.
Anyone who is unable to understand that can come shout at us all they want and cut and paste their claims until their fingers bleed. The simplest fact of all is that if they cannot understand the above then there is absolutely no possibility that they understand anything at all about the climate or any of their so called proof.
This is about money and power, nothing more. One doesn’t need a conspiracy theory to realize that, one only needs to have their eyes open.
50
Your average person in the street, sees the reports on these conferences, on television, and they understand the hypocrisy very well.
Then they realise that the politicians and fellow travellers cannot understand why they are loosing the information battle over this.
It compounds the stupidity.
100
Which raises the question. How many solar panels are on the roof of the UN building?
60
They planned to use green power and electric cars – neither happened.
They brought in diesel generators to power the temporary buildings.
They claim that because of Peru’s protection of forests they can claim carbon credits. A bunch of buffoons.
In their honor I cut several trees down today for a neighbor’s next year’s firewood.
30
I see reports over the weekend that Lima climate talks have fallen down. Paris 2015 is shaping up to be like Copenhagen 2009 all over again. Now all we need is another climategate.
You see if Man Made Global Warming really was an existential threat to mankind I kind of doubt we’d have international disagreement on fighting the “problem”.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lima-climate-conference-tensions-may-bring-storm-clouds-to-paris-20141214-126x9m.html
40
Well let’s make a public display of the Paris failure and retract our $200m mistake, if anything is learnt from CAGW it’s money that rules over morals.
60
For how long can the climate bandwagon keep rolling on, since the wheels have fallen off ?
50
It’s on the skids.
80
It must be on ice, because it ain’t stopping.
100
Thin ice?!
60
Melting ice…
30
Free fall —
http://cowboylands.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/wagon-whoops.jpg
20
Two handy links.
An interesting page to understand the warmist mentality and view of “climate contrarian” arguments.
https://contrarianmatrix.wordpress.com/
Also, a short list of tricks that can be used in argument to appear to win even when logically they don’t.
http://coolhaus.de/art-of-controversy/
Look for those tricks being used in the climate debate by all sides.
40
What on earth is a ‘colophon’ ?
Put me right please before I go off with totally the wrong idea.
40
To cover all bases I’d say it’s a brief description of a genus of Stag Beetle from ancient Greece or modern Turkey.
Hey I think I’m getting the hang of this IPCC climate science mindset. 🙂
40
Well that’s a relief. I was beginning to imagine some kind of attachment for amplifying when talking through one’s posterior.
40
Not quite the hang yet, you have to add that it is in danger from climate change etc.
30
The modern term for “colophon” is “blurb”.
It is the information about the publisher, that is usually at the end of a book (or may be on the back of the flyleaf), that gives all of the cataloguing details: Title and/or subject, author, name and/or logo of the publisher, and the date and place of publication. It can also include the Library of Congress number for things published in the US.
It is actually ancient Greek, for “finishing touch”. Isn’t that interesting?
We use the word to define a list of references to any additional information, that would have been included at the time of publication, if it had been available then.
81
Oh No. That was a false negative (Thumbdown)
That’s very interesting explanation Rereke.
30
http://euanmearns.com/the-vostok-ice-core-temperature-co2-and-ch4/
Jo, couldn’t find an email for you, but I believe this post may interest you. I should have called it “Vostok and the 8000 year time lag”. If you want to send me an email you’ll find it on the “Support Energy Matters” tab on my web site. You can cross post this if you so wish.
90
And it is an article well worth reading, IMHO.
40
Even the unions want less RET. I thought the Greens and Labor told us that renewable energy was reducing electricity costs? Surely the aluminium industry and others would want to run 100% on “free” wind and solar power?
From: The Australian:
Mr McDine argues that the aluminium sector is facing a “perverse” situation where both parties have agreed to exempt it but it will pay the $70 million-$80m charge next year anyway because of the breakdown in talks.
“It would be disastrous for the Australian economy for any further closures to occur, particularly if they were to be triggered by a government energy policy that is desperately in need of amendment.”
If Abbott and Hunt don’t reduce the RET they will lose even more votes. And we will continue to pay more for electricity to what end? When will this madness stop?
80
This morning from News.com.au
With included translations.
http://www.news.com.au/national/rush-hour-the-stories-you-need-to-know-today/story-fncynjr2-1227156031348
150
Their journalists are delusional. I wonder what substance they were smoking?
50
They’re presstitutes, not journalists.
Orwell wrote:
50
Monday Funny
Second Coming postponed because of global warming.
http://dailycurrant.com/2014/11/14/climate-change-preventing-second-coming-of-jesus-study-says/
60
You are kidding, right? Is it April the 1st yet again?
60
For The Gullibles, every day is April 1st.
50
Annie ditto,
E G
Just for the record, I’m a christian, and find this statement crazy, stupid, nonsensical…
Monday Funny – I’m still laughing.
R-COO- K+
80
Hello Ron. I’m a Christian too and have had a good laugh. However, it is a bit sad too that such ideas can be put forth as belief. Gee whizz…we certainly have our share of people with odd ideas.
10
Notice the obligatory STEAM coming from COOLING towers. ! 🙂
71
what are they cooling Griss?
15
Gee,
surely you’re taking the pi$$ here.
That’s their official name.
Tony.
61
NO… not taking the piss. Griss seems to think that, without evidence, the person who posted the photo didn’t know that the white cloud is just water vapor. The person might well have known that the cooling tower is involved with the process of produciing electricity from coal, thereby producing CO2 emissions. I think it would have been a funny photo of a power generating facility if they had photo-shopped out the towers.
12
Gee Aye, you’ve realy got to read more carefuly.
There’s no need to believe that “the person who posted the photo didn’t know that the white cloud is just water vapor”. The whole article was a parody.
31
thanks I knew that it was a parody… nothing to do with the nature of Griss’s comment.
12
They are using it purely as a piece of propaganda.
You know that, everyone knows that.
So stop your worming and squirming.
They pretend to the gullible, thick-headed, greenie that it is pollution.
Gees sometimes they even make sure its back lit and therefore a bit darker..
…. or even photoslop a bit of grey in there.
41
Gees, Gee.. I knew you didn’t have much clue… but really !!???
Here’s a hint to do some ‘lirnin’.
31
While we are teaching each other new things. You might like to know that steam is invisible, although it does have a different RI to air so you might notices its presence, if somehow it was not obscured due to it condensing into vapor, by a shimmer.
22
I know what steam is..
.. your comment shows you had a quick glimpse at Wiki to try to show you know something.
Too late !
31
your comment shows that you prefer to project your biases for the effect of a glib comment.
13
and I have 2 RI reading instruments within 10 metres of where I sit. I’m glad that reading wikipedia has finally clarified what they do.
13
” I’m glad that reading wikipedia has finally clarified what they do.”
Gees, and how many weeks did that take you ?
31
decades. I broke so many of them before the internet saved me.
12
Steam from COOLING towers.
I had a-go at channel 10’s The Project over this misrepresentation BUT got nowhere.
R-COO-K+
40
See my comment above Ron. Do you want them to take photos of coal burning power plants without cooling towers. Your assumptions show your bias not their ignorance.
23
No, it shows the ignorance of those using the photos and their readers.
.. trying to pretend its pollution or something. WHICH IT ISN’T !!
You know that’s the idea they are trying to get across to their ignorant, gullible, greenie target audience.
It shows that that KNOW their audience is basically…. THICK !!
32
“Do you want them to take photos of coal burning power plants without cooling towers”
They wouldn’t do that.. there is no propaganda lies to be shown.
41
evidenceless assertions again
23
Then stop making them !
31
They have to show cooling towers, because that’s the only visible output.
They have to darken the output, to make it look like pollution.
Its what they do, its all they have…… Propaganda lies.
41
Griss… here is the same sort of picture being used to promote nuclear – it is a positive picture. They obviously didn’t read the propaganda manual
https://theconversation.com/its-time-for-environmentalists-to-give-nuclear-a-fair-go-35488
00
Hi Griss
All that water vapour is causing more warming than the CO2 coming out of the cooling towers and don’t forget the adjacent smoke stacks as well.
30
This paragraph will clarify the article:
Another Daily Currant article states:
40
The Daily Currant must be “varsity comedy rag then” and not to be taken seriously. That’s the only conclusion that I can come to. As for some “evangelical christian churches” they are a bunch of
wackosill-informed do-gooders (and that includes some of my church friends) any way, and like the UN want your money.R-COO- K+
50
I could be excommunicated for this —–do protestant churches excommunicate people 🙂 LOL
R-COO- K+
40
Not to my knowledge and its rare for Catlicks to be excommunicated these days, most of us are just lapsed and probably doomed.
50
Yes, but you have to pay for the service.
By the way, would that be the Ned Flanders from The Simpsons?
40
No idea…never watch it…pictures too ugly.
00
Australia continues to fail to pay due diligence to checking the totally incorrect physics associated with the carbon dioxide hoax. Firstly they make out that the Earth’s surface would be 18 degrees below freezing without water vapour, carbon dioxide etc. That’s garbage, because without water vapour there would be no clouds reflecting 20% of solar radiation back to space, and probably none of the 20% of incident solar radiation being absorbed by water vapour before it reaches the surface. Water vapour cools, reducing the solar radiation striking the Earth’s surface by about 40%. This is evident in temperature records that indicate that more moist inland regions have lower daily mean maximum and minimum temperatures than much drier regions at similar latitude and altitude.
The errors in the physics centre around complete misunderstanding of the state of thermodynamic equilibrium which is what the Second Law of Thermodynamics says will evolve. It’s worth repeating this well-known quote by Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington, The Nature of the Physical World (1927) …
“The law that entropy always increases holds, I think, the supreme position among the laws of Nature. If someone points out to you that your pet theory of the universe is in disagreement with Maxwell’s equations — then so much the worse for Maxwell’s equations. If it is found to be contradicted by observation — well, these experimentalists do bungle things sometimes. But if your theory is found to be against the second law of thermodynamics I can give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation.”
There is no escaping the fact that gravity forms a density gradient in accord with the Second Law of Thermodynamics. This process simultaneously creates a temperature gradient. Then the existence of that temperature gradient, and the fact that it is a state of thermodynamic equilibrium, means that some of the new thermal energy absorbed at higher levels (disrupting the equilibrium) can and will be transferred downwards as gravity works to restore a new higher level of thermodynamic equilibrium with the same temperature gradient as the previous state.
This process provides the energy which James Hansen realised was missing (because direct solar radiation cannot explain the surface temperature) but thought was due to back radiation. It isn’t because radiation between the surface and the atmosphere transfers thermal energy out of the warmer surface, not into it. And that’s why it’s not carbon dioxide that maintains Earth’s surface temperature (let alone raises it) but the force of gravity which, in effect, has trapped thermal energy in all air molecules over the life of the planet.
72
Looking at the universe we see vast amounts of emptiness punctuated by areas of very high energy and mass. These energetic zones are very, very slowly decaying entropically. But one little unregarded planet on an outlying limb of a spiral galaxy is running against the tide of entropy.
That planet is Earth. And the mechanism that rails against entropy is life.
For the time that life is on this planet it acts against the general thrust of entropy.
Life has worked out through the billion years of evolutionary mistakes and retries, it can take small amounts of low level energy (heat, kinetic, solar radiations, chemical, etc) and concentrating them into novel, new, higher energetic forms. From low level dispersed energy to high level concentrated energy. Through this process it can and does work to ensure life’s survival. It is not an overly efficient process but it is better than human endeavors.
This life process ensures entropic decay is delayed.
How long is it delayed? – by the extent that life can survive – that’s all.
So till the next comet hits us, or the sun has a coughing fit and incinerates us, enjoy life.
60
The new book “Climate Change the facts” is now available from the IPA online. $24.95
http://thefacts2014.ipa.org.au/
Many authors with chapters by Jo Nova, Bolt, Marohasy, Lindzen, Carter and heaps more.
40
Australia Post Sponsorship/Membership of the Climate Institute
Previously I advised that on 27 October 2014 I had written a letter to Malcolm Turnbull, Minister for Communication, and Mathias Coprmann, Minister for Finance, raising my concerns that Australia Post’s sponsorship of The Climate Institute was a waste of taxpayers’ monies.
I thought that you may be interested in the responses.
In letters dated 4 December 2014 (Cormann) and 11 December 2014 (Turnbull) I received written responses to my letter, as follows:
“Under the Australia Postal Corporation Act 1989, Australia Post is responsible for the day-to-day running of the organisation, including all decisions relating to its operational network and is not subject to direction from Government except where explicitly stated under legislation. As a Government Business Enterprise, Australia Post does not receive any finding from taxpayers and, as far as practicable, it is required to perform its functions ina manner consistent with sound commercial practice.
Australia Post is committed to its corporate responsibility and gives genuine consideration to balancing commercial returns, customer service, community and environmental interests.
In its role of providing essential postal and retail services to communities and businesses Australia Post:
• Employs more than 33,000 full-time staff and around 10,000 licensees, franchisees and mail contractors;
• Operates more than 4,400 retail outlets and licensed post offices; and
• Manages a fleet of more than 12,000 vehicles.
Australia Post recognises that its operations have an impact on the environment and it is committed to understanding these impacts and working to minimise them. One of the ways it achieves this is by working with community partners.
Thank you for bringing this to our attention.”
This portion of the letters was common to both replies.
In addition the Minister for Communication also added:
“Australia Post has further advised that it has been a member of the Climate Institute for a number of years and that the Institute is a non-partisan, not for profit organisation that aims to increase awareness and understanding if climate change issues. Australia Post leverages this relationship to deepen its understanding of climate change and to drive greater business outcomes as a result.
I am advised that Australia Post has not collaborated on any specific project with the Institute and that its membership of the Institute does not include sponsorship arrangements”.
The Climate Institute’s website lists Australia Post and General Electric as “Climate Partners”.
The website also informs me that: A select group of businesses from sectors such as finance, energy, infrastructure, transport and communications have been our Climate Partners since 2010. These businesses both input into our ongoing work and partner with us on new work.
Obviously both Cormann and Turnbull see nothing wrong with Australia Post being a Climate Partner of the Climate Institute because in some way Australia Post “leverages this relationship to deepen its understanding of climate change and to drive greater business outcomes as a result”.
I can’t see how, in any way shape or form, Australia Post can be linked with this group of Greenpeace sycophants in any way which can benefit Australia Posts’ customers (Australian Taxpayers).
111
Interesting. I’ll write to the Climate Institute and all their sponsors with a letter similar to my comment above, including a copy of my book “Why It’s Not Carbon Dioxide After All” and my 2012 paper “Radiated Energy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics.”
30
Can anyone remember an American who posted in this forum a weather model that estimated the weather up to a year in advance?
It often showed snow in Australia during summer. I can’t remember the link, but need it to laugh at.
20
judging by you off topic post elsewhere, I think you found it. Funny thing is that years ago the stupidity of these predictions was pointed out to him and he claimed to have repaired it. Looks like snow cover for low lying areas of inland NSW for much of the summer hols.
10
Does Richard still post here? He seemed to enjoy explaining in detail how the model works but never explained to me why his model produces such absurd results.
00
They’ll be ecstatic. I can barely contain myself.
00
The world is still warming at a long-term rate of about half a degree per century, but it will reach a maximum within 50 years, then cool for nearly 500 years with superimposed 60 year natural cycles.
Until you take comfort in the valid physics which explains all temperatures in tropospheres, surfaces, crusts, mantles and cores of planets and satellite moons throughout the Solar System and no doubt beyond, you will continue to argue about what is a fictional hypothesis and, in the process, you will be unduly concerned when the next 30 years of warming occurs between 2028 and 2058.
00
CR (I can call you CR, I hope?).
As you point out, there is currently no significant warming, nor is there likely to be, within the next fifty years, or so. Half a degree per century, equates to 0.005 degrees per year and I suggest that is well within the observational margins of error.
But valid physics or no, this is not really a scientific argument. Rather, it is a political argument that uses scientific sound-bites as ammunition. These sound-bytes are in lieu of the real arguments, which are all about the control of natural resources, and the subsequent transfer of wealth between nations, and from nation states, to influential individuals within those states.
The world is at war. It has always been at war, in one form or another. Sometimes it is a hot war, where explosives are thrown around (and we currently have a few examples of that), and sometimes it is a cold war, where stockpiles of explosives are grown menacingly, with the implied threat that they will be thrown around in a temper tantrum, (we still have a residue of that) and sometimes it is an economic war, where one faction tries to bleed the other factions dry (which is currently what “climate change” is all about).
So. yes, the physical science is interesting, and especially so to those who have dedicated their career to finding out more about the climate, what influences it, and how it works. But it is actually academic when considered alongside the political science that underpins the entire discussion, and the subversion of the physical science.
20
Yes and, now that the Australian Government has very specific plans to divert humanitarian aid money towards carbon dioxide aid, I am looking into the possibility of a court challenge next year or the year after. I’ve concluded that only a win in court will make the politicians perhaps question the lack of due diligence by those persons and authorities advising them.
10
As climatologists will tell you, the Earth’s atmosphere is a good insulator. Yep! It does indeed insulate us a little from the hot sunlight. The greenhouse gas water vapour forms clouds which shade us and send 20% of the solar radiation reflected back to space. It also absorbs almost all of about 20% of the solar radiation that gets absorbed on the way in. Water vapour also expedites the transfer of thermal energy up through the troposphere and off to space. It’s quite good at speeding up the rate of cooling of Earth’s surface, just as it reduces the insulating effect when moist air enters the gap between double glazed window panes. Do you ever wonder why they use dry air instead to improve the insulation? Next time you wander through a cool rain forest be a little thankful for the most prolific greenhouse gas water vapour because no one really enjoys living in a dry desert, now do they?
10
Firstly, as we read on some other climate blogs also, it is very apparent that either (a) a planet’s temperature is primarily determined by incident solar radiation, or (b) it isn’t.
Even Michael Mann and colleagues must have realised that the actual mean radiation penetrating Earth’s surface is only about 163W/m^2 and that gives temperatures around -40°C. The “disinformation” they decided to promulgate then came down to the false claim that the radiation occurring between the surface and the troposphere somehow helps the Sun to raise the surface temperatures to higher maximum temperatures each day. Well that’s a lot of raising to do from -40°C especially when that radiation between the surface and the troposphere is in general a process which cools the surface. You only have to consider data from a planet without a surface to realise all this is utter garbage, not just “disinformation” or mistaken concepts. It is deliberate deception because they hound down all valid counter arguments.
So they must realise it’s all wrong because they go out of their way to try to rubbish the correct physics which explains why (b) is in fact correct.
Valid physics is based on correct understanding and use of the laws of physics. It is a lack of understanding of such things as thermodynamic equilibrium, entropy and energy potentials which has meant that climatologists (with limited education in physics, and far less understanding) have got their physics wrong and got the world into a horrible mess, wasted billions and cost many lives.
There is no valid physics which can be used to prove carbon dioxide could raise the surface temperature, not even by a tenth of a degree.
All the climatology literature (such as in the IPCC website and Pierrehumbert’s book) is based on the false assumption about how the back radiation flux can supposedly be added to the solar flux and the total then used in Stefan Boltzmann calculations to “explain” the 14°C to 15°C mean surface temperature.
Pierrehumbert’s calculations very clearly fail to deduct the solar flux that is absorbed by the atmosphere, and so you never see the real figure of 163W/m^2 being used to get -40°C for the surface temperature. Then in the imaginary Earth without water vapor and other greenhouse gases, he still deducts about 30% for albedo, even though 20% is based on reflection by clouds which of course would not exist without water vapor. The plain fact is that these greenhouse gases prevent nearly half the solar radiation reaching the surface.
Common sense (and empirical evidence) tells us that the most prolific “greenhouse gas” water vapor obviously forms clouds that shade us and cools the surface by a few degrees, rather than doing most of that incorrectly calculated “33 degrees of warming” which the IPCC loves to scare us with.
A totally different paradigm involving gravity it what is really at play.
Have a Happy (and dry) Christmas everyone.
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