Sea levels are part of the scare campaign, but how many journalists ask, and how many scientists admit, that sea levels in the South Pacific are noisy data that changes as the ground moves and the ocean slops back and forward? The Pacific averages 4 km deep. Is it any wonder that slight changes in winds and currents will shift the top 10cm, just 0.0025% , around? Long term sea level changes are difficult to assess. But this is not what we hear much in the media:
“Rising sea levels making island nations such as Vanuatu more vulnerable to storms and amplifies the impact of tropical cyclones” –The Guardian
“Coastal flooding is a sleeping giant,” it says. — The Climate Council (News.com)
The good recent data shows big rises and falls that don’t correlate with CO2
A very neat high-quality network of SeaFrame equipment was installed around South Pacific Islands in 1992 to measure both land and sea movements. This is called the Pacific Sea Level Monitoring Project. It is maintained by the Australian BoM. The geodetic observations are done by Geoscience Australia.
These tide gauges show that sea levels are rising and falling around Vanuatu over the last 20 years (feast your eyes, there is a 30cm range on that graph below). Where is that CO2 signal? Seas around Vanuatu have been falling since 2008. Getting long term trends out of short data with large natural swings is misleading. Slightly different start or end points will change the rate dramatically. In 2009 the rate of sea level was listed as 6.5mm/yr since 1993.1 By 2011, the trend was 5.2mm/yr.2 There is no newer report, but clearly it would be even lower now.
Vanuatu Sea level | Source: Ref 3
The anomaly chart shows sea levels increase for a while, then decrease for a while. There is no connection with steadily rising CO2.
… | Source: Ref 3
The surface temperature of water around Vanuatu cycles up and down by 5 degrees C like clockwork every single year. There is no trend visible at all. Then again, if seas are rising by 0.03 C per year, we aren’t going to see it on this graph, or measure it with this equipment. Marvel that last year the corals around Vanuatu coped with a five degree Celsius rise over just a six month period (like they do every year). But put on your panic-hat at the thought of them surviving a fraction of degree over a century.
Spot the effect of massive emissions of CO2?
Vanuatu sea surface temperature | Source: Ref 3
Reader Steve writes in with a paper from 1987 showing that the corals around Vanuatu are regularly baked in the sun, “emerging” above the seas and going back underwater:
Using coral growth bands, we can determine the year coral surfaces died due to emergence. We interpret four major coral emergence events as coseismic uplifts that occurred near the epicenters and rimes of large shallow earthquakes on January 5,1946 (Ms = 7.3), August 11, 1965 (Ms = 7.5), October 27, 1971 (Ms = 7.1) and December 29, 1973 (Ms = 7.5).
Vanuatu is in motion, and it’s been the same for a century:
At various places in 1957,1969-1970.1977, and 1978-1981 there was about 5-10 cm of emergence not associated with major earthquakes, which may indicate nonseismic tectonic uplift. However, oceanographically lowered sea levels, as in El Niños, may have determined the times when corals died and recorded these events. Nevertheless, the accumulation of emergence, its persistence, the limited geographic extent of each event, and occurrence in areas of rapid Holocene uplift suggest that the causes of the uplifts are tectonic. These events suggest that in some areas a third or more of the total accumulated uplift in central Vanuatu takes place as aseismic motion. However, in some areas we find only coseismic emergence. In central Vanuatu, contemporary coseismic vertical deformation, Holocene uplift, and topography have remarkably similar patterns. This suggests that the mechanisms and processes causing vertical deformation have varied little over the last 106 years. Apparently, the topography, structure, and seismotectonics are controlled by the subduction of the d’Entrecasteaux ridge, a major bathymetric feature underthrusting this part of the arc. The influence of this ridge may have been especially extensive because it migrates very slowly along the arc trend, and thus it interacts for a long time with a single portion of the arc system. Our previous studies of reef terraces indicated the existence of at least four seismotectonic arc segments or blocks along the Santo-Malekula interval of the arc, and our present results further support this conclusion. Each block has uplifted at different times, by different amounts, at different rates, and tilted in a different direction.
Confidence Intervals?
The big picture
Whatever is happening with sea levels and crustal plates near Vanuatu, sea levels in most of the world are not accelerating, and not correlated well with CO2 either (they started rising long before CO2 did). If we use tide gauges, estimates are in the range of 1mm a year (see here as well). If we use satellites it’s 3mm a year — but only after the original raw data was adjusted.
I’m astounded the graphs aren’t homogenized into some type of upward trend or hockey stick seeing BOM are involved.
Some good news for the people of Vanuatu though.
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Bad news you mean. If the sea level was rising they could leverage it for cash.
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Well, it’s good news really, because they will leverage it for cash anyhow, and get to keep the land too!
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Vanuatu relies on fossil fuels for 90% of their electrical generation. As others have commented so frequently, their absolution lies in divestment. And so it is, they will be ‘saved’.
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Has Vanuatu been “Rewilded”?
51
Would have got to Vanuata the other day, but the cyclone had just passed over with incredible damage. I was in Lifou, not far away, and really didn’t see much in the way of rising oceans and the locals didn’t seem to be very worried about them rising either.
00
Yes, but imagine how much worse it would have been if it had been worse.
290
It would have been worse than they thought.
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Things will have to get worse if we want them to stay worst.
30
My local butcher is a German. He always tells me that he has the best wurst!
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That haz to be the wurst joke zat I have ever heard.
30
18 March: CarbonBrief: Sophie Yeo: Why is a disaster risk reduction treaty important for climate change?
In Japan today, representatives from 186 governments signed a new UN treaty on disaster risk reduction.
It is the first in a triad of 2015 agreements that will determine how the world deals with development in the face of climate change, inequality and rising urbanisation. This is likely to include the UN’s new Sustainable Development Goals in September, followed by a new climate change agreement in December…
Since this agreement was signed in 2005, disasters have killed more than 700,000 people, and made 23 million homeless, and caused total economic losses of more than $1.3 trillion, the new treaty points out.
Not all disasters relate to climate change, though. For instance, some are attributable to, say, earthquakes and volcanic activity. However, a new UN report calculates that 87% of disasters are caused by hazards of the air and oceans, including cyclones, floods, heat waves and storm surges…
The new UN deal acknowledges that disasters will only get worse as temperatures rise. It says:
“The effects of disasters, some of which have increased in intensity and have been exacerbated by climate change, impede their [small island states] progress towards sustainable development.”
Targets
The new deal has five specific aims…(blah blah)
Within these overarching goals, a number of more specific targets are outlined:
1.Substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower average per 100,000 global mortality between 2020-2030 compared to 2005-2015
2.Substantially reduce the number of affected people globally by 2030, aiming to lower the average global figure per 100,000 between 2020-2030 compared to 2005-2015
3.Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030…etc
***Indeed, the new disaster risk deal is intentionally vague about how to tackle climate change as an underlying contributor to disasters – a politically toxic subject, as two decades of fraught UN climate negotiations have demonstrated.
While the deal stresses the need for coherence with the UN’s climate talks, it is also careful not to step on its toes. So, how can a deal that stops short of talking about curbing climate change effectively talk about reducing risk?…
Tom Mitchell, head of climate change at the Overseas Development Institute, tells Carbon Brief that he would have liked to see “clearer recognition” of the role of greenhouse gases in driving disaster risk…
A crucial sticking point is that this depends on governments choosing to implement them. The deal is voluntary, and unlike the UN climate negotiations has not prompted ten billion dollars of cash. Nor is it likely to do so, as quantified financial demands are absent from the final document…
But the Sendai agreement offers practical guidelines that can help to reduce the impact of climate-related disasters before they strike.
These should be supported by the broader aspirational goals of the Sustainable Development Goals, while the UN climate talks will attempt to strike at the root cause of rising greenhouse gas emissions. That, at least, is the plan.
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/why-is-a-disaster-risk-reduction-treaty-important-for-climate-change/
PDF: 25 pages: 18 March: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030
http://www.wcdrr.org/uploads/Sendai_Framework_for_Disaster_Risk_Reduction_2015-2030.pdf
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18 March: CarbonBrief: Simon Evans/Sophie Yeo: Budget 2015: Key climate and energy announcements
The government will spend £20 million on seismic surveys in untapped regions of the North sea “to catalyse exploration”. Today’s tax breaks add to those announced last year. The House of Commons library has a detailed explainer on North sea oil taxes available here.
Friends of the Earth say Osborne had already given tax breaks worth £3 billion in previous budgets. The government says the breaks are not subsidies, as oil firms still pay the usual rate of corporation tax. However, the Treasury will forego a substantial amount of income.
It says the tax breaks will see “at least 120 million barrels of oil” in additional production over five years. Carbon Brief analysis suggests this would increase emissions by 45 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, around 10% of the UK’s annual total, if it adds to the amount of oil that would have otherwise been extracted and burnt at a global level…
The budget document says government will enter the first phase of talks on a proposed £1 billion electricity-generating tidal lagoon at Swansea…
The lagoon would generate reliable renewable energy by capturing water from the tides in a manmade pool, and then releasing it through underwater turbines to generate electricity. Carbon Brief has a guide to the concept here.
The project still needs planning permission and would be more expensive than nuclear, solar, onshore and even offshore wind. The company is asking for a subsidy of £168 per megawatt hour of electricity for 35 years, compared with the £92.50 agreed for the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant in Somerset and wholesale electricity prices of £50 per megawatt hour.
The company behind the project say that the lagoon would have an installed capacity of 320 megawatts, and could provide power for over 155,000 homes for 120 years. It has been called ” appalling value for money” by consumer group Citizen’s Advice…
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/budget-2015-key-climate-and-energy-announcements/
19 March: Guardian: Owen Duffy: Scotland’s carbon footprint grew 5.3% in a year, report finds
Increasing reliance on imports has seen overall emissions rise, despite a fall in greenhouse gases produced by Scottish homes and businesses
Scotland’s carbon footprint appears to be on the rise according to a report published by the Scottish government, with the growth in consumer spending pushing up the country’s CO2 emissions…
Commenting on the figures, Friends of the Earth Scotland Director Dr Richard Dixon said:
“An economy powered by excessive consumption drives dangerous climate change, but often the true scale of our impact is hidden.
“Almost everything that we buy has a carbon cost which measures the energy, materials and water that goes into producing it. We now buy so much stuff from overseas that the impact of these spending choices is just as important as the emissions we generate here at home.”
***He added that the increase in emissions seemed to be linked to Scotland’s recovery from the global financial crisis.
Lang Banks, director of WWF Scotland, echoed Dixon’s concerns…
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/scotland-blog/2015/mar/18/scotlands-carbon-footprint-grew-53-in-a-year-report-finds
***thou must not recover from the GFC.
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18 March: The Conversation: Burning wood for electricity: new demands, new questions
by Robert C Abt, Professor of Forestry at North Carolina State University & Karen Lee Abt, Research Economist at United States Forest Service
Wood pellets are a renewable energy source and there are circumstances where wood energy can reduce net CO2 emissions…
On the one hand, burning wood for electricity generation produces between 10% and 35% more carbon emissions per unit of power than coal. That is, to generate one kilowatt of electricity, you would produce more carbon emissions from wood than coal. On the other hand, when trees are harvested from land that is kept as a forest, the new trees sequester carbon as they grow (trees are roughly half water and half carbon), reducing net carbon emissions from the earlier harvest…
So if we harvest trees to make pellets for electricity and consider all the carbon emissions in the production and use of these trees (including competing uses), then under certain conditions wood could have lower emissions than coal…
http://theconversation.com/burning-wood-for-electricity-new-demands-new-questions-37954
Disclosure Statement:
Robert C Abt is co-director of the Southern Forest Resource Assessment Consortium at NC State University. This consortium provides financial support to NC State. Membership includes wood dependent industries (including pellet producers), forest landowners, state and federal agencies, environmental NGOs, and other institutions interested in strategic resource assessments. He occasionally conducts proprietary assessments as a consultant.
Karen Lee Abt receives funding from her employer, the Research and Development Branch of the USDA Forest Service.
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A little more on that madness is here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581887/The-bonfire-insanity-Woodland-shipped-3-800-miles-burned-Drax-power-station-It-belches-CO2-coal-huge-cost-YOU-pay-cleaner-greener-Britain.html
Jo, it’s not the freeboard that’s the problem with these islands, it’s the deck space.
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How does burning wood enjoy cleaner (less CO2) than coal, after all, coal is just preserved and aged wood isn’t it? OT, but it’s decades since the US had no tornadoes in March this late.
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NOAA: No March Watches to Date Unprecedented
During a month when severe weather typically strikes, this March has been unusually quiet, with no tornado or severe thunderstorm watches issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center so far. And, National Weather Service forecasters see no sign of dramatic change for the next week at least.
“We are in uncharted territory with respect to lack of severe weather”, said Greg Carbin, SPC’s warning coordination meteorologist. “This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970.”
. . .
Unprecedented. lol.
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Tom , they kid themselves that burning wood is burning a renewable resource. Pity about those fossil fuels they have to use to cut the trees down, chip them , transport them to the port and then across the Atlantic.
I think the Drax case is one of the biggest follies they have erected in the name of this religion.
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Nothing beats wind industrial sites for folly.
70
unfortunately April is scheduled to be real bad. Let’s hope it misses the population centers.
30
Tom, yes. Coal is just old plant matter, so what does it matter? Wood, coal, leaves, gas, kerosense, paraffin, ethane, butane, propane, petrol, oil, olive oil, wax, people, fish, trees are all the same stuff made from CO2 and H2O. Basically hydrocarbons. Originally C(H2O) carbonhydrates from photosynthesis and rotted to CH2. Just longer or shorter largely. The shorter the long chain, the more volatile right up to methane. Note the O2 left over from C(H2O) is what you are breathing now as you run your own personal internal combustion engine. Great, eh? You are polluting too and should hate yourself.
So why are these hydrocarbons rated differently as polluting? Really it is largely just about the other half, water. Brown coal is still very wet, 50% water. So half the energy is wasted evaporating the water. Greenists then claim it is bad because you get twice as much CO2 for the same amount of energy generated.
Around 2009 Monash University and a local Melbourne company in Melton had invented a way to dry brown coal cheaply, but a $300Million order from India for brown coal was stopped by the Labor government because it was not only the ‘most polluting’ brown coal, evil industrialists ‘wanted to make it blacker‘. Greens hate black stuff. Evil pollution. Nasty. This was front page of the Age newspaper. (Diamonds are also carbon and burn and not black. Do Greens hate diamonds?)
Greens will never accept that they too are made entirely from CO2 and burn just like wood, but Greens live in a fantasy world where they are made from light and happiness and air. In a word, Nuts.
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Peat (brown coal) deposits have a moisture range, according to their rank, up to 70% water
There have been quite a few methods developed to dry out the mined products prior to power station burning. The Monash Uni method was one of these. The CSIRO have had a number of tries at this as well
The bauxite (aluminium oxide) smelters in Victoria were sited there to take export advantage of LaTrobe Valley’s enormous peat deposits (ie. cheap electricity to power the smelters). You may have noticed that the ALP, both Federal and State, had exempted the smelters from the CO2 tax because the unions objected to their jobs being taxed out from under them – a trifle self-defeating, one may think
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With respect to brown coal being burned in coal fired power plants, the Germans lead the field here, and in conjunction with their new USC plants, they are drying the lignite prior to burning to reduce the moisture content
This link to Neurath F and G units (and that’s two 1100MW generators) explains it very well. It’s a pdf document of 8 pages with illustrations, and is well worth reading.
This is just one small excerpt, explaining how the coal is dried:
It also says further down in the text that this was what was being planned for a major retrofit (rebuild) at Hazelwood in Victoria, and you can guess where that went. (Right into the ether)
This is the future for brown coal fired power plants. Germany, and now, other European Countries are powering ahead with this technology, technology you will NEVER see explained here in Australia, let alone implemented.
I strongly urge readers to take the time to read through the article in its entirety, because coal fired power is most definitely NOT ancient technology. At the top of page 4, there is a wonderful schematic diagram, and while small on your viewer, just hit the + button at the top of screen.
And 1100MW for just one generator. That’s 440 wind towers just to equal the Nameplate, and that one generator will still deliver three times as much power to the grid.
Tony.
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Even Greens expect the power to be plentiful and to be able to jet away on holiday. They contribute nothing to this and do not understand how it all works and could not care less. In fact they would like to ban everything modern including farming, industry, manufacturing while enjoying a carefree life with the internet and plentiful food. An inner city Amish without even gears on their bicycles.
It reminds me of H.G.Wells “The Time Machine” with the Eloi and the Morlocks.
“The Eloi are the childlike, frail group, living a banal life of ease on the surface of the earth, while the Morlocks live underground, tending machinery and providing food, clothing and infrastructure for the Eloi.”
This was written in 1895.
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Tony, from what I’ve read, at its peak, steam train technology was highly efficient. As such, while people use diesel locos for compactness and ability to transport its fuel on board, steam trains we still mighty in what they could do.
51
Nope.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_engine#Efficiency
20
Incidentally, here’s how old tech Hazelwood is and how new tech Neurath is.
You could knock down Hazelwood totally, all 8 units, and replace it with a two unit plant like this Neurath Plant.
Hazelwood has a Nameplate of 1600MW, and delivers around 6500GWH to the Victorian Grid.
Neurath F and G has a Nameplate of 2200MW (1.375 times larger than Hazelwood) and delivers around 17500GWH to the grid. (2.7 times larger than Hazelwood)
Hazelwood burns close to 6 Million tons of coal a year.
Neurath F and G burn close 6.75 Million tons of coal per year. (1.125 times more than Hazelwood)
So almost three times the power delivery for barely more coal.
Just in Nameplate, Neurath is the same as for 880 Wind towers.
Over the whole of life for those 880 wind towers, (approx 25 years) you will get 144 TWH delivered to the grid.
Over the life of Neurath F and G, (approx 50 years) you will get 840TWH delivered to the grid. (5.83 times the power)
Neurath F and G will have a construction cost in the vicinity of AUD3.1 Billion.
880 Wind towers, (around 4 Wind plants of a similar size to the now defunct King Island plant) will have a construction cost of AUD8.8 Billion. (at the same proposed cost for King Island)
Fat chance that ever happens.
Tony.
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$3.1 Billion may seem a lot but if a Neurath class power station is 2.4 times more efficent than a Hazlewood class station the Coal purchase savings per unit of energy over a 10, 20 or 30 year period would cover that surely?
40
I have read Yallourn uses 30% of Victoria’s fresh water to generate our power. At the height of the drought, the government commissioned a report on the possibility of switching Hazelwood to sea water. A complete rebuild was required, of course.
Now we are paying for a giant desalination plant, $28Bn next door to the power plant. It employs 50 full time people full time and will take 28 years to pay off, presumably without being ever used. The same Greens refuse a fully funded road to take trucks out of the inner city and put them under a cemetry. Clever people.
So why not run the desalination plant, divert the really fresh drinking water up to the Riverina and sell it. We also built an unused $800Million North/South pipeline. To grow anything you need sunshine, CO2 and Water. Nothing much more. Water=food. And the Murray Valley has sunshine and CO2.
I have never understood why the desalination plant is idle when it can produce so much water. Or are dams so much cheaper, in which case, why didn’t we build one? You do get tired of asking simple questions of politicians. Use the desalination plant, or do we have to pay extra to turn it on?
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Yes. I inspected two of these new plants on the east side of the Rhine near Cologne (2012). The exhaust towers for H20 vapour are tall enough to require aircraft warning lights on them
Like LaTrobe, Germany also has abundant, very thick deposits of lignite. State-of-the-art bucket wheelies for extracting the thick seams (> 30m thick) are developed and built in Germany. LaTrobe is (or has been) a good customer for these
Note that each brown coal power station is custom-designed for a specific seam or set of seams (captive, is the description). This means that mixing ‘n matching seams and stations is not economic – each seam or set and each power station are symbiotic with each other
70
So, why don’t you just say “That’s 1320 wind towers….. if the wind happens to be blowing sufficiently”.
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Ah, see Thomas, there’s the trap that nearly everyone falls into, and this is not meant in any way as criticism, just pointing out a common misconception.
The fact that the coal fired plant delivers three times the power is seen in the power delivery scenario.
That’s why I always try to put it into time perspective as well as for power delivery totals.
The coal fired plant can deliver its power on a 24 hour basis, while wind delivers its power at a 30% Capacity Factor, and while that seems that it only delivers a third as much, it’s the same as saying that wind delivers its full rated power for only 30% of the time, or at a daily average of only seven and a quarter hours a day.
Even if you had 1320 wind towers, they would only be delivering the equivalent of their full rated power at the same 30% CF, or still only 7.2 hours a day.
Wind supporters always cherry pick days of high power delivery and point at that, when the standard is across the whole year.
As an ardent follower of that wonderful site Australian Wind Farm Performance, it’s also easy to see that Wind more often than not has its best power delivery from midnight to around 4AM, when it’s nearly always never needed, and is most probably not even used. It’s still counted as overall generation though.
Tony.
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And look, I know this is wildly off the topic here, but there is a difference between power generation and actual power consumption.
As I have often said the grid always needs more power at it than is being consumed at any time, naturally so.
That’s why when you look at power generation figures for Australia, you’ll see it’s (around) 215TWH per year, while actual consumption is (around) 200TWH, so there’s an extra 15TWH a year which, while still being generated, is not being consumed, and that figure of 15TWH is enough power to run Sydney for a whole year.
The grid operators just HAVE TO HAVE (and I cannot emphasise that enough) enough power at the grid to cover everything. So, take the case when consumption is X and generation is X plus a little bit. All of a sudden, the wind picks up and a large chunk of wind towers start generating. That power then just sits over and above what is actually being consumed, not used, as the grid is already being covered.
Conversely, say you have a grid controller using large amounts of wind power as part of the makeup for his total power availability having just a little over the total consumption, and the ar$e falls out of the wind, and wind power crashes in that localised grid area. All of a sudden the grid controller has less power at the grid than what is being consumed.
Oh dear! What happens then?
Now can you see why grid controllers (under threat of their job) have real (reliable) power delivery plants as their main supply for what is actually being consumed.
The same also happens between Midnight and 4AM, when virtually ALL power delivery is from those major large scale coal fired plants. The wind plants, as I mentioned above, often have their largest periods of generation during this time, power that in the main is not used, even though, BY LAW, the generated wind power must be paid for, no matter if it’s not even used.
Tony.
90
Dontcha just love that punchline with the wood burning-
But wouldn’t a much more effective and cheaper way of cutting emissions be to shut down Drax altogether, and replace it with clean new gas plants – which need no subsidy at all?
Mr Burdett said: ‘We develop our business plan in light of what the Government wants – not what might be nice.’
50
I have never known so many stupid people to publicly demonstrate their stupidity. A product that demands a 300 percent subsidy is not a good deal in anyones language even for those spending other peoples money. This has passed stupidity and is firmly in the realm of idiocy. And these people are paid?
140
It is the system Lawrie. Rather like making a police commissioner the fire brigade commissioner, & actually assuming they can do the job.
I had an interesting experience a few years back. Beattie gave each local council a grant for 2 years to promote tourism. This led to many shires advertising for a tourism promotion officer.
Recently retired, & with a record of turning failing tourist businesses around, I applied for my local council position, thinking I might be able to help the jobs market for our kids.
I & 5 other applicants were appraised together. I found all 5 had done the same arts degree, with the same tourism, & events promotion threads, at the same university, as had 2 of the selection committee. Four had applied for the same position with various 3 of 5 other councils advertising in our general area.
It was really funny. Only one had ever done any actual sales, or had a track record of any proven success, but the air was steaming with the amount of piddling in each others pockets going on.
I was not successful, as you can imagine. It was also funny that 4 of our nearby councils had an almost identical advertisement on our local radio station, about 3 months later. I think the events promotion thread must have had a template add in the course notes. We got this, with just the district name changed for as long as their budgets lasted.
We did not see any surge in tourist traffic, but I suppose it did take a few off the unemployment figures.
40
Funny how SEAFRAME data to August 2014 shows a positive trend at every station in this network (Jo’s ref 3 Table 1). The smallest of the trends is (coincidentally) at Vanuatu: 3.6 mm/year. So nobody could infer that sea levels are not rising based on this evidence.
229
For more info on Pacific ocean level trends see one of Jo’s past posts –
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/08/south-pacific-sea-levels-no-rise-since-1993/
and then see
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60102/IDO60102.2011_1.pdf
For data up to 2011 [the latest] in particular figure 10 and 11 (pages 24 and 25), then decide if the ocean is rising or falling.
For a more in depth look at Pacific Ocean trend and how they are measured, and the errors see —
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/02/the-most-important-sea-level-graph/
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sillyfilly
Oops, please ignore this this info was no aimed at you but was intended as a separate post for those with inquiring minds.
So PLEASE ignore it.
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Alternative BOM report for my second reference above, which takes you up to August 2014, is Jo’s reference [http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60101/IDO60101.201408.pdf ]
Figure 13 on page 28.
Not that it is much different from the other reference, showing no rise overall – most stations are just bumping around the zero mark. Though Samoa shows a peculiar discontinuity in 2010 then jumps up remarkably from 2011 onwards.
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There’s a global relative sea level web site which collates national tide gauge and other data from around the world: Permanent Source for Mean Sea Level at http://www.psmsl.org complete with searchable map. A fascinating site.
50
Seems you’re delusional. Bar an obvious ramp up around the 1997 El Nino, any trend in any of the stations (bar Solomon Islands which seems to be a strange outlier following a gap in the data around 2010) is swamped by the scale of short term variation, and indistinguishable from noise. When it comes to any empirical data, alarmists are just left clutching at tiny straws. Perhaps it’s time to reconsider your position and join reality? Humanity and the environment have far more pressing problems than this nonsense.
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The trends are in the data despite whatever nonsensical spin you wish to put on it.
224
Sorry, Sillyfilly, I must be a bit thick today. Could you talk me through your thinking process, that arrived at that conclusion? I have tried to see a trend, but for the life of me, I can’t.
221
It’s easy to be fooled by it, because the trend is flat.
131
The trends are there.
You just have to allow for the natural variability which always exactly cancels them, leaving the lines flat.
It is like a Roarschach ink blot. You need to look harder and you will see a hockey stick.
91
I reiterate that the trends are in the data and are significance. Again, if in doubt refer Table 1 of Jo’s referenced link 3, where the trend for each station is calculated and published. Not hard to find the evidence of sea level rise in all the data. The choice to ignore the reality is entirely predictable.
118
sf,
Yiou are correct the data shows significant trends.
Now, can you tell me where these significant sea level rises can be actually observed, because your perception of significant data trends don’t seem to translate anywhere in the physical universe.
120
sf,
You are correct the data shows significant trends.
Now, can you tell me where these significant sea level rises can be observed, because your perception of significant data trends doesn’t seem to translate anywhere in the physical universe.
80
WTF is that? Why can’t you just post a link to whatever you are squarking about rather than have us try to figure out WTF you are talking about?
61
Jo’s ref, Jo’s link: surely you can click above, or is that beyond your mental capacity.
07
If you mean this then I would say the trend is flat: http://jo.nova.s3.amazonaws.com/graph/ocean/sea-level/pacific/vanuatu-sea-levels.gif
However the trend since 2012 is downward.
71
Thank Sophocles for this reference. Rising trend in the data, ENSO influence clearly visible (all it needs is a good La Nina).
06
Yes, nothing to do with CO2 nor global temperatures, the trend of which remains flat since 1998.
If you look at the long term data you will see that the trend is indeed flat.
20
Seeing as water has a propensity to level itself out one would think that on a monthly basis, after allowing for the daily tides and lunar orbit, any rate of change would be the same for measuring sites in the same region. They are not. Must be something else going on unconnected with human generated CO2, which is but a mere coat of paint on the metre thick steel roller coaster of CO2 levels in history anyway!
51
As Jo has linked in her piece –
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/mass-carbon-emissions-and-australian-sea-levels-rise-at-similar-speed-as-1920-1950/
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/11/sea-level-rise-slowed-from-2004-deceleration-not-acceleration-as-co2-rises/
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/global-sea-level-rise-a-bit-more-than-1mm-a-year-for-last-50-years-no-accelleration/
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/mass-carbon-emissions-and-australian-sea-levels-rise-at-similar-speed-as-1920-1950/
40
And that is your problem, you iterate and reiterate over looking at one chart, all the while overlooking all the evidence in all the documents linked into the piece, and all the rest everyone else has linked in.
.
One chart doth not a hypothesis make.
40
Dear Fine Cotton,
This is an example of a significant trend:
You put forward claims on CO2 based global warming theory that prove invalid by the most cursory examinations.
When it is put to you to show facts rather than propaganda, you fail to respond.
40
It seems you’re so muddled by your own propagandising, you can no longer distinguish spin from common sense.
131
it seems if there’s a little bit of red at the end, it means real bad.
there
I think that’s it.
70
Sillyfilly, look at the “Monthly mean sea levels to August 2014” graph. In 1993, the reading is on the zero line; in 2014, it is below the line. How do you interpret that as a “rising trend”? Look at it with a more open mind (i.e. without any preconceived ideas), and you will most likely see it as almost everybody else on here, including myself, does – it is just a load of “noise”, with no discernible rising or falling trend. I suspect that you feel you need to make a comment that is contrary to what is being said. Quite why is a mystery to me; could you, perhaps, enlighten us to your reasoning?
By the way, try measuring a 3mm rise in your bath tub, with you in it. Then ask yourself, “If I am having this much difficulty in a confined container of water, how can I measure to such accuracy in the big, wide, open ocean?” Then ask yourself, “Who is feeding me nonsensical spin?”
171
Like putting the trend back in trendy.
60
*Samoa, not the Solomon Islands..
30
sf,
3.6 mm/year at Vanuatu, wow, that’s intersting and does tie up a few loose ends for me.
You see, if you research all the Vanuatu sea level data for: 1988, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2011 you should actually detect a correlation between the sea level rise data and the ocean acidification data.
I completed several postings during those yearss and took particular note of the waters of Mele Bay on the island of Efate, where I would swim each morning.
I can explain the minor variations in sea level rise you noted along with the acidification anomolies.
My bad.
201
James,
Are you taking the p*ss?
You will make poor Sillyfilly blush.
132
Rereke,
In order:
Yes.
I doubt it.
140
I was under the impression that the oceans themsleves are not even height if measured fromt he centre of the earth, in that there seem to be nodes that are higher and nodes that are lower around the earth, so of like water slopping around in a tanker as you drive it around a corner….
As such, are sea level increases meaningless, in as much as to say if it gets higher in one spot, does it mean its got lower somehwere else?
If so, possibly another over-simplification by the Leftie power snatchers…( and I dont mean weight lifting events…)
Thoughts welcome…..
71
Yes, it is fascinating that if the primitive ideas of a fixed sea level were used, the ocean would be 40km deep at the poles.
There are large forces at work pushing water to and from the equator and it is equally fascinating that the flattened shape of the earth is precisely matched by the shape of the oceans which average 3.4km deep and rarely more than 6km. It is also remarkable that all the ice and snow in Northern Europe, Siberia, the US and Canada can melt and rush to the ocean in summer and the docks in Copenhagen or Vladivostok seem the same. In fact it is hard to tell summer from winter apart from the ice. So worrying about these few mm in the Pacific seems quite absurd. Who is living long enough to care? Ports silt up anyway and Scandinavia after the melting of the glaciers is rising much faster than the oceans. It all seems so manufactured this worrying about water levels like Noah, trying desperately to spot movement. This is religion, not science.
50
SillyFilly said:
Which just shows that not all `evidence’ is acceptable on face value.
Vanuatu’s archipelego is of volcanic origin. There are 24 volcanoes spread around its islands, of which nine (9 — 7 aerial and two submarine) have erupted over the last 100 years or so (are regarded as active) and 13 have erupted recently enough to be labelled dormant but not extinct. Movement of magma beneath the crust makes the land move (up and down), which is normal. Therefore the sea level (and all sea level is regarded as relative) would appear to rise and fall. Just as Vanuatu’s does.
New Zealand relative sea levels have risen at an average rate of 1.7mm pa over the period 1910 to 2010. They changed at a rate of less than 1.0mm pa but more than 0.5mm pa over the period from 1960 to 2010. You can see for yourself here. (The map is easy to drive.) The NZ information is taken from national tide gauges and GPS masurements show insignificant tectonic movement. That, under your proposed evidential regime, is good evidence that sea level rise is insignificant.
Where volcanoes are involved, it’s most likely not the sea.
110
A bit more research shows the Vanuatu Islands are perched almost right on the edge of the Vanuatu Trench, as explained here. (The map can be enlarged.). It’s part of the Pacific `Ring of Fire’ and is a subduction zone between the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates.
Sea level change is easily explained by the immediate tectonic activity …
90
Yeah, I used to live on the eastern coast of New Zealand’s South Island. Every time there was a sizable earthquake, the mean sea level would rise, by a millimetre or two, according to the local tide gauge.
The funny thing was, that a similar tide gauge on the western coast of the island would show that the mean sea level was decreasing, by much the same amount.
I wonder if SillyFilly could explain that?
161
You’re lucky. My coffee missed my keyboard 🙂 *cough* *cough*.
91
Pity you don’t read Jo’s references:
08
I never let references, or sensibilities, get in the way of a joke, or a jibe, or a jolly jake.
Especially if I can do it in a way that turns the butt of the joke, towards people who are seriously serious, about being seriously serious, on matters that don’t really matter at all.
40
Nor should you. It tends to ruin the humour in the situation.
Getting serious for a moment, our pet donkey is getting all shrill about a relative rise of 3.6 mm per year. So the rest of this is just some ruminating on this and is not directed at anyone in particular.
3.6 mm pa is 36mm or 1.4 inches per decade, or 360mm or 1 foot 2 inches per century. It will take 270 years to rise 1m at that rate.
Vanuatu’s islands are volcanic, and they sit about 150kms to the east of the Vanuatu Trench, a subduction zone between two tectonic plates.
Ergo: the sea is rising there, or … the islands are subsiding.
The trench is a subduction zone between the Australian and Pacific plates.
Volcanoes appear on the plate which is overriding the subducting plate.
Vanuatu’s islands are volcanic and it has 7 active volcanos at present.
That means the Australian Plate is subducting or going under the Pacific plate there.
(That’s going to make some interesting geology because it’s the other way around in NZ’s South Island!)
The Pacific plate will bounce up and down from the subduction (rise and fall, rapidly in geological time almost unmeasurably slowly in human subjective time.
But! The Framework project has installed GPS leveling on the tide gauges.
So it can’t be subsidence but must be rising water.
Why?
Let’s look around a bit.
The big problem about relative sea levels is that the Pacific is a very big volume and a very big area of water. There’s a lot of room for a lot of sloshing. Tidal rise and fall twice daily appears to have a maximum swing of about 1.45m (spring tide) and an average about 1m from low to high (very approximately). That’s not a lot of slosh there
Water is a liquid and tends to be self levelling, but that is just a tendency. Storm surges show just how much water strong winds can bunch up. It seems a lot to us small mites but when the puddle is over 3km deep, it’s nothing. Gravitational pull can bunch up the sea where it is strongest to almost 100m above the rest of it. The Gulf Stream is about 600mm higher than the rest of the Atlantic where it runs north east out of the Caribbean.
Sea level is rising at less than 1 mm per year in Auckland NZ. What’s going to happen over the next 100 years? Is Vanuatu taking all NZ’s sea water and piling it up? Let’s wait and see. Vanuatu may just see some pretty bad volcanism in the not so far distant future if magma is rising down below and it’s mass is attracting more water. Tremors or earthquakes will soon tell.
But that’s just guessing. It’s not unreasonable. The island of Iwo Jima, scene of that famous US Marine flag raising, is a dormant (not erupting) volcano. The island has shown dramatic uplift for at least the past 700 years, which is thought to be caused by ‘resurgent doming of the caldera’ (rising magma). The beach where Captain Cook’s surveying crew landed in 1779 is now 40m above sea level. The Moto-yama plateau on the NE half of the island is the highest point and comprises submarine tuffs overlain by corals, showing it was once submerged.
From 1911 to 1952, uplift was 11cm (110mm) per year and reached 33cm (330mm) per year between 1952 and 1968. Recent studies show that the center of the Iwo-jima caldera is subsiding while the surrounding areas are uplifted.
That island is going to make a very big bang when it gets around to erupting.
So let’s do a lot more measuring and research about what’s happening at Vanuatu before we rush around like headless chooks.
The sea levels are not going to inundate anything for at least 270 years and in that time, they could fall, a lot faster than
they’ve been rising. We have access to the GPS levelled data but we haven’t looked at the GPS data itself. And we know little about the underlying geological activity at present. To say it’s `because of GW’ is not a sensible conclusion.
In other words, there’s no reason to panic about such a small sea level rise until we know the cause. Given Vanuatu’s geological environment, the cause may be something to really worry about.
30
A “Positive trend” is good. I am relieved that things are improving, and that we have less need to worry.
That is wonderful news to end the week with.
70
From PSML – Port Villa
From the other side of the trench – Noumea
There is no data overlap but you can see a decreasing trend on one side and an increasing trend on the other side of the trench. The last 5 years in Port Villa has a negative trend of about -15mm/yr. That means, sillyfilly, that you can not say that sea levels are rising 3mm/yr overall due to global warming.
60
Before I run all this info through my non-government funded commonsense model, can someone tell me did the cyclone hit at high tide or low tide?
81
As the island chain runs North-South, I would think the answer would be both high and low, but on different islands.
70
Some high and some low; OK. So what we need is a rich nations “tidal tax” to control the ocean levels. Mr Moon could announce .. no that’s enough, joke over!
140
SOrry…all I could think of was Mr Squiggle….
“Miss Jane, Miss Jane…”
“Oh hurry up…..”
Makes about as much sense as a “Canute tax”
60
red breast
.
“So what we need is a rich nations “tidal tax” to control the ocean levels.”
Surely that would just be a lunacy tax?
30
Next time I’m in the bathtub, I’ll attempt to get an average water-level.
Just about as useful as a sea level measurement perhaps?
131
According to Bob Tisdale’s book “Who Turned On The Heat’, the sea level difference between Indonesia and South America can vary up to 500mm between El Nino and La Nina conditions.
How is this adjusted, homogenized and/or creatively accounted for to create meaningful sea level figures?
141
Some 50% of The Pacific Ocean sea floor was formed in the last 10 mln years. This is documented by numerous spreading ridges, collisions and subductions. The area between NZ and the Philippines is currently one of the most tectonically active areas. That includes Vanuatu. For anyone that claims what the sea level is doing in this region smells of grandiosity and arrogance. On top of the tectonics we have rapidly building carbonate atolls which distort the picture. The answer again is in the past and investigation of local seismic profiles which we don,t have many of may provide some indication as the subsidence history of the island. Forget the present day assessment. This is futile like micro metering the brick.
150
I think we have all been sucked in by the media and the warming propaganda merchants.
We are getting all stewed up about various charts which cover the last 30, 50, 100 or 200 years.
These charts are really telling us about recent weather. Are they really telling us anything about climate?
I am open to being guided on this one (eg an open book!!).
There is nothing that I can see which shows any mathematically statistical correlation between carbon dioxide emissions and temperature, so why are we fussed about “weather charts”.
Surely the charts to ponder over are those that cover millennia, plus, plus.
121
That is because there is none. There is no statistically significant difference between the warming rates of the late 1800’s, the early 1900’s and between 1978 and 1998. None.
There is zero correlation with CO2.
For example, global temperatures declined between 1940 and 1975, all the time that anthropogenic CO2 emissions were accelerating rapidly. It did not warm. 25% of the total of anthropogenic CO2 emissions since the beginning of The Industrial Revolution have occurred since 1998, yet the global temperature trend since 1998 remains flat. Again zero correlation.
91
This comes to us from none other than Professor Phil Jones, CRU East Anglia in response to questions from the BBC.
130
Phil Jones to the BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm
60
Of course we can conclude from this that if there is no statistically significant difference between the warming rates that there is then no “signature” for CO2 “forcing” in the temperature record. There is no empirical evidence to support such an hypothesis.
81
Correction:
such an hypothesissilly notion71
“Silly notions” like using rates of change to cover the measured absolute temperature increase, interesting but statistically inept. No CO2 forcing, what a laugh. What next a “step-change” in climate, that’s been busted. It’s all the sun, no another complete fail in the modern era. It’s ENSO, another fail. Got any other “silly notions” that are as equally irrelevant.
014
sf,
All your CO2 based climate models failed.
Therefore CO2 not a factor either.
Any more bright ideas, Fine Cotton.
100
‘No CO2 forcing, what a laugh. What next a “step-change” in climate, that’s been busted.’
The great climate shift of 1976 is generally recognised as a step change. According to Norman Page the most recent step change happened in 2003.
‘It’s all the sun, no another complete fail in the modern era.’
Our star is undervalued in terms of its impact on our climate, there are complex mechanisms in play. As you know oscillations like the NAO gets its orders from the sun.
‘It’s ENSO, another fail.’
ENSO is not part of the AGW theory, it appears to have a mind of its own, but as we are in a cool PDO there are less El Nino. This is bad news for the warmists, who have been praying hard for a big one, even though its unrelated to their mantra.
‘Got any other “silly notions” that are as equally irrelevant.’
Ironically I believe global cooling has begun.
110
Silly filly the next big meme to hang your hat on.
Why is Arctic sea ice so low?
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/nasa-study-shows-global-sea-ice-diminishing-despite-antarctic-gains/#.VQu1w-GrFlA
70
Probably the most silly notion I have heard is that CO2 “forcing” causes global temperatures to rise.
You deride the point I have made, however logic would dictate that if there really is such a thing as CO2 “forcing” then the rate of warming would be higher in the latter warming period.
The fact that there has been zero warming since 1998, a period during which 25% of the total of anthropogenic CO2 emissions since the beginning of The Industrial Revolution have been emitted completely falsifies the CO2 “forcing” hypothesis.
Now, please show to us all the “signature” for CO2 “forcing” in the temperature record. You cannot.
70
And, my friend, that is why we all sit in front of our electronic communications devices, refusing to go along with the Chicken Little story put around by politicians and various activist groups, who are trying to use scare tactics to steal your hard-earned income.
It is a balancing act. I have to spend some time earning an income. And I have to spend some more time, in trying to prevent the leaches, who have never done a productive days work in their lives, from taking that income away from me, against my will.
191
If sea-level was always the same,
Alarmists would loudly proclaim,
That it ought to be falling,
Or rising, then stalling,
And then say mankind was to blame.
341
You are getting betterer and betterer,
141
You hit the nail on the head each time Ruairi. No wonder you displease some pathetic red thumber! A sign that you really hit the spot. 🙂
110
Or rising and rising as the records do say,
but beware the few who would lead you astray.
Don’t listen to rants and derogatory swill,
get with the science, don’t be such a dill!
013
In trying to emulate Pope,
Do your couplets compare? nope,
But for poetic art,
It’s a bit of a start,
But for science; the work of a dope.
110
And that’s how one gets slapped silly by Ruairi! 🙂
60
That’s very funny Ruairi! At least, SF is trying (very trying).
40
I not into hip, nor into hop
But utter denial is such a flop.
Failed ideas that bite the dust,
Some so old, they’ve begun to rust.
But not a worry for you sorry lot,
Can’t be helped, just lost the plot.
05
To see a filly as silly as this,
Surely someone’s taking the pi$$,
To spend all of that time,
On nothing that rhymes,
Is surely the Contronym of miss.
30
At least it rhymes SF! I disagree with the content however 🙁
40
In other words don’t listen to Sillyfilly and her cohorts.
41
For Vanuatu i cant find any problems with rising sea. Most of the islands are volcanic and many hundred meters over sea. In fact Denmark would be more vulnerable to rising sea than Vanuatu. You can check it at google earth.
Maybe they should be more afraid of volcanic eruptions than rising sea.
111
The active (erupting) volcanoes on Vanuatu are the source of much of Vanuatu’s tourism and tourist income. Guided tours, with guides `trained to show you where it’s safe to stand’ … yes. Right. Safe. Quite. Grilled, baked, or sauteed tourist, anyone?
121
Oh…pot roast please!
70
What? Don’t you get it? CO2 must have a cyclic effect, a wave-like phenomenon that causes that distinctive signature. What else could explain it but CO2? Don’t you know that the only answer anyone can think of (laughter) must be the right one? 😉
Science morons are the worst possible kind.
101
‘a wave-like phenomenon’
I’ll play devil’s advocate.
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/co2_trend_mlo_aug04_2008.png
70
el gordo
.
‘a wave-like phenomenon’ but is it waving ‘hello’ or ‘goodbye’ or is it maybe not waving but drowning.
60
I had a look at the temperature data, constructing a 12 month centered moving average of the data.
https://manicbeancounter.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/vanuatuausbom.jpg
I noticed that the peak temperatures were in 1998, and there has been no warming since. There was a big jump in temperatures at the start of the series. However, looking at the UHCN raw data for Porto Vila, Vanuatu (1947-1984) such temperature increases are not unknown, and usually follow a similar fall.
61
Well they chose to put the cart (policy) before the horse (science) with the statutory UNFCCC. And that choice and the consequences of this is today a major more real threat to the Western world than the possible consequences of a hypothetical anthropogenic global warming, When are we going to realise the real consequences of this?
60
” In 2009 the rate of sea level was listed as 6.5mm/yr since 1993.” “the rate of sea level” Probably just a typo Jo.
40
best wishes to those who were hit by Cyclone Pam & are now picking up the pieces.
17 March: BBC: Cyclone Pam: Vanuatu islanders forced to drink saltwater
People living on a remote island in the north-west of Vanuatu are having to drink harmful saltwater following last week’s cyclone, the BBC has discovered.
Residents of Moso say they are still waiting for outside help to arrive…
Drinking saltwater is damaging as the more a person drinks, the more water already present in the body is rerouted to help dilute the excess of salt.
It can lead to dehydration and death…
At the scene: BBC’s (Sydney correspondent) Jon Donnison in Moso
Villagers have been having to drink saltwater for two days. You cannot survive like that for long…
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-31917913
18 March: ABC AM: Vanuatu concerned about food supply in the wake of Cyclone Pam
MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: There are reports residents have been forced to drink salt water days after Cyclone Pam pummelled the Pacific archipelago…
Vanuatu Islanders Forced to Drink Salt Water Following Cyclone
teleSUR English-17 Mar 2015
Sydney Morning Herald: “Cyclone Pam has done untold damage to infrastructure in Vanuatu – Some have been forced to drink salt water…19 March 2015
Irish Independent-1 hour ago
… the north-west of Vanuatu are having to drink saltwater
Vanuatu residents reportedly drinking sea water – Network Ten Australia
TVNZ: Cyclone-hit Vanuatu residents drinking sea water – TV News …
EXCEPT FOR THE FACTS:
Humans of Vanuatu Facebook: 17 March:
I’m hearing reports of people drinking seawater. They seem ti ignore that our islands are largely porous limestone. The rain leeches down into the stone and exits at the shore. It is not only common, it’s actually very safe to dig into the beach and tap these springs for drinking water.
I know, because I have one such spring outside my house.
Please people, try not to propagate this kind of ignorant alarmism.
…
Things are not great here. They are very hard. But jumping to the worst conclusions doesn’t help anyone.
https://www.facebook.com/HumansOfVanuatu
AUDIO: 19 March: Radio Australlia: Doubts raised over BBC’s ‘drinking salt water’ report
Locals in Vanuatu have rejected a report from the BBC that some people have resorted to drinking harmful saltwater as they wait for relief supplies.
The report claimed people in Moso, off the north-west coast of Efate, had been drinking saltwater for two days.
Samuel Wor Wor is a community leader on the island of Ambrym and is currently in Port Vila.He says it’s far more likely people are sourcing water from natural springs at the shoreline, which are common in the Vanuatu island chain.
Presenter: Sam Bolitho
Speaker: Samuel Wor Wor
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/radio/program/pacific-beat/doubts-raised-over-bbcs-drinking-salt-water-report/1426935
Journalist Bruce Hill, Pacific Beat (Radio Australia) was on ABC Media Report today stating BBC’s report on “drinking salt water” was WRONG, & the result of “parachute” journalists arriving after a disaster, without any knowledge of local customs.
91
Drinking sea water?! Sounds like media nonsense.Verification please.
30
‘The oceans are rising, the oceans are rising!’
It has a familiar ring to it.
60
This is only an illusion, With the sky falling it just seems that way.
60
Touché!
40
Weatherzone forum: Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan (Coral Sea) March 2015
Eevo 7.21: back to cat 3 from the BOM
the obs indicate it crossed as cat 2 if lucky
Brett Guy: 160kmh gusts at Flattery which did not go through the eye would suggest higher than that. Not sure about a 4 but likely a 3.
Brett Guy: Haha. Just saw the worlds most embarrassing cyclone ‘cross’. The Sunrise reporter was pointing to a tricle of water in the drains saying flooding of low lying areas is the biggest worry now. You could see he was almost ashamed while doing it.
Tuco: Chanel 7 guy in cooktown actually told it how it was, “it’s now just a rainy day and people doing what they normally do.”
gecko – 12 minutes ago: No way I’d trust BoM with it’s fancy-pancy satellites, radar and meteorologists over someone sitting at home in-front of their laptop….
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1315859/102
42
[allegedly]”Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan” while “sitting at home in-front of” my CAD workstation 🙂
After the Marcia thing, with Middle Percy suddenly retrospectively getting “broken” for three days over the event, I have been following this one for a day or so using half-hourly station records (all printed to pdf), Google Earth, then some CAD mapping to calculate distances I didn’t measure on GE.
First off, GE has a useful little cyclone icon sourced from WMO/NOAA, which was reasonably accurately located. Actually the icon follows the Al Gore standard, eg it is rotating the wrong way. Duh.
I calculate that Cape Flattery Airport was about 25km south of the eyewall at its closest point. Attenuation with distance can vary a bit, but winds south of landfall are always stronger than the north side, and 25km doesn’t show any significant attenuation on graphs I have from sources like JCU CTS. Maybe a bit of shielding from the Cape itself for a short while.
At 2:30 am Flattery shows direction SE, sustained windspeed 120 km/h, gusts 161 km/h, pressure 990.1 QNH hPa (989.9 MSL hPa).
That’s a Cat 2, marginal 3, at a time when Nathan was still out at sea 20km north of Cape Flattery, with another 40km to go before it crossed the coast.
Another beat-up.
92
‘Actually the icon follows the Al Gore standard, eg it is rotating the wrong way. Duh.’
** chuckle **
50
Pat,
I watched Sunrise this morning – David Koch is a serial warmist – when the reporter from Cooktown reported this was ‘just another storm’ Koch tried to beat up a possibility that Cyclone Nathan may be followed by other cyclones.
Big no from reporter at Cooktown ‘just typical cyclone activity for this time of year’ he said.
Koch kiboshed!
112
Sea levels throughout the pacific were influenced (depressed)by eruption of Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, and a year or so of moderate El Nino activity, which also depress SL. The SEAFRAME data started (1993) as these effects were waning.
A non-trend (but trend-setting) small (mm-scale) up-shift in all data happened in about October 1998, due to a change in phase of the PDO. This shift came on the back of the 1998 El Nino (which was very significant and which reduced SL). When all that cleared away, we got all that Greenpeace-noise about sea level rise being anthropogenic; but it was not. (That shift was well documented; and it is also noticeable in Australia coastal data.
It is surprisingly difficult to get a paper based on these analyses, published!
Cheers,
Bill
100
Thanks Bill, I had wondered and heard something about this before. I thought about searching for a paper… Jo
61
Late Night’s Seth Meyers sandbags Ted Cruz on climate change
“This clip showed that this left-leaning audience, which was fully primed and ready to cheer for yet another sermon on climate change, was disappointed when they discovered that there were cogent counterarguments that had the capacity to dispel their faith.”
“So, you trust satellites more than computers?” Meyers asked, pivoting back to a joke.
. . .
“I trust data more than models.
A model is the pickup artist book that says if you wear a purple tie women will say yes.
Data is what actually happens when you try it.”
91
🙂 🙂 🙂
The difference between an hypothesis and empirical observation …
81
One member of the MSM Boris Johnson opining in The Telegraph is beginning to get the message!
30
Fix broken link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/9814618/Its-snowing-and-it-really-feels-like-the-start-of-a-mini-ice-age.html
40
It’s funny to look back at times……
50
You are exactly on the anniversary date too.
20
Thomas The Tank Engine,
At least one part of the article was true, besides the date that is:
Kudos to Dr Viner.
Although the chaos did start five years early, but then again, nobody’s perfect. 😉
Abe
70
He probably meant we’d be unprepared as we’d have no snowploughs and not know how to cope with a couple of inches of unexpected snow! That’s not unusual in the UK anyway. Witness the chaos at LHR when there’s a flurry of that white global warming stuff. 🙁
30
James Bradley – luckily i can only imagine Koch’s panic, as i have never seen the program.
thought i should post the Bruce Hill/Media Report link, as the parts i heard were quite sober. of course, there was whingeing about cuts to Radio Australlia/ABC staff, but that’s par for the course on ABC programs these days:
AUDIO: 19 March: ABC Media Report with Richard Aedy: Cyclone reporting in Vanuatu
We hear from one of the most experienced Pacific reporters outside Vanuatu about the good and the not so good in covering this natural distster…
Guest: Bruce Hill, Journalist, Pacific Beat, Radio Australia, Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/mediareport/post-cyclone-reporting-in-vanuatu/6331928
posting the following as well, because whingeing over ABC staff cuts gets another airing, with Lowy Institute/Jenny Hayward-Jones saying things like “WE lost (Pacific correspondent) Sean Dorney”.
i found that funny because, in December, Lowy Institute announced: “At the Dialogue the Lowy Institute was also pleased to announce the appointment of former ABC Pacific Correspondent Sean Dorney as a Nonresident Fellow in the Institute’s Melanesia Program for 2015″…and that is where Jenny Hayward-Jones works.
perhaps she should have said, “ABC lost Sean Dorney and WE at Lowy Institute gained him”.
are the two institutions interchangeable?
19 March: ABC Media Report: Australia’s coverage of Vanuatu and the Pacific
Jenny Hayward-Jones lived in Vanuatu for a few years and believes that when we report on Melanesia and the Pacific more broadly, we do it pretty well. The trouble is, we barely do it at all.
Guest: Jenny Hayward-Jone, Director, Melanesia Program, Lowy Institute, Sydney.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/mediareport/australia27s-coverage-of-vanuatu-and-the-pacific/6332538
abc’s Richard Aedy mentions Jenny has a piece at The Drum:
18 March: ABC The Drum: Don’t turn away from Vanuatu’s destruction
By Jenny Hayward-Jones
The people of Vanuatu are very resilient. Up to 85 per cent of the population live a subsistence lifestyle in rural areas, with urban communities also relying on their own gardens for food. Disasters are, unfortunately, a common experience and the country is vulnerable not only to cyclones but also earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides and floods…
THE ARTICE IS QUITE GOOD, BUT IT’S ALL DOWNHILL ONCE WE GET TO THE COMMENTS.
first one by Dave attempts a weak joke at the PM’s expense re “lifestyle choices”, but others don’t get it, so that creates a bit of a stir)
Dave: …Well as Team Australia has recently noted, people will make lifestyle choices….
pete posts an apt comment when there are 29 comments out of 59 now:
pete: The drum has +170 comments on the Skinny Model article and there are only 29 comments about our Vanuatu Neighbors plight.
Says a lot for the readers of the drum?
reaver: Because, Pete, this is far from a controversial topic. Almost everyone agrees that sending the aid is a good idea. A discussion based on how everyone is in complete agreement is not very interesting.
(link is on the Media Report page)
41
‘Note that the El Nino warmth in the tropics seems to have fizzled, falling about 0.25 deg C in the last few months to near the 1979-2010 average value, which is unusual since February has been the usual time of peak tropospheric warmth in response to previous El Nino events.’
Roy Spencer
——
The Klimatariat will not be amused.
101
I’m wondering now.
Surely these people are cr@pping in their own nests.
Now that Cyclone Pam has been called the worst Cyclone to have ever struck the Pacific region, and it was a Cat5 TC, then does that also make TC Marcia the worst ever TC to have struck the Pacific region as TC Marcia was also Cat 5 when it made landfall.
Surely that also makes TC Marcia the worst ever Cyclone to make landfall in Australia.
TC Marcia the worst in the Pacific.
I doubt it.
TC Marcia the worst to ever make landfall in Australia.
I doubt that too.
TC Marcia Cat 5.
I doubt that as well.
TC Nathan Cat 4.
I doubt that too.
Ho hum move on.
Beat ups surround us, so much that I’m again reminded of the boy who cried wolf.
Next you’ll see the BOM pushing hard for new categorisations for Cyclones.
For all you non Queenslanders, State Premier Annastacia Palaszcuk told viewers of her presser from the Cyclone HQ (in faraway Brisbane) that TC Nathan had winds of 260KPH, and how quickly did video of her saying that disappear from everywhere.
Tony.
131
NOAA satellite data for TC Nathan shows MSLP in the range 949.0 to 949.1 and V max (I presume maximum gust?) as 115 kts throughout the period 19 Mar, 16:32:00 to 19:32:00 UTC. The above period would seem to include the time when the TC made landfall.
Without applying any corrections, those data indicate that Nathan made landfall with an Australian (BOM) Scale intensity of high end category 3 when based on wind gust but low end category 4 when based on MSLP. I understand the current (NOAA) practice is to rate intensity category by sustained wind speed not MSLP?
Alternatively, TC Nathan Warning USNO (Navy) based on conditions on 19 Mar at 18:00Z: Shows the following data:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS (1 min ave) – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT.
Converting maximum sustained wind speed 1 minute average (US) to 10 minute average (BOM) conversion factor ~ 89% i.e. 090 KT (US) becomes 80 KT (BOM). So for BOM classification purposes we get SUSTAINED WIND 080 KT, GUSTS 110 KT. These wind speeds place TC Nathan at the upper end category 3 by Australian (BOM) categorisation.
Take your pick, but most likely Nathan, at its FNQ landfall, was a high end category 3.
101
Normally they are rated on sustained winds for ten minutes.
61
TonyfromOz,
I suspect that the newly printed ‘climate scientist’ do not appreciate that in the past cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons had winds rated in knots and not like today in km per hour.
50
The next cyclone will be the worst “evah”.
Then the one after that will take it’s place as the worst “evah”.
And so on.
50
For Pam and Marcia to be recorded as equal is a travesty. Marcia was a 2-3 as people were surfing and swimming when it crossed the coast. Pam was a Cat 5 and the damage proved it
40
The great masses will remain brainwashed .The sheep are in their pens-ready to be shorn in the morn’.
30
Renowned sea-level expert, Dr.Nils-Axel Mörner, lays it out well against the ill-founded alarmists in his excellent 2011 publication, ‘There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise’. In it he states,
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2011/Winter-2010/Morner.pdf
In it he also alludes to a powerful evidence-based open letter rebuttal of impending disaster to the then president of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed (he of underwater cabinet meeting fame).
http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Moerner/Maledives_Open_Letter_Moerner_Oct09.pdf
There never was a reply. I wonder why? / sarc.
72
Way, way off topic, but occasionally something comes along which I feel others would enjoy. This touches on technology which I have wondered about for many years. How are we going to expand our senses through technology? Here are some early indications:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4c1lqFXHvqI
I doubt we can even imagine where this will lead in the not too distant future.
70
I’m not surprised at all, over the past decade skeptics have developed an ability to smell colors, green smells like BS……
This is actually very interesting Bulldust thanks for the link.
40
Sounds like synesthesia to me Yonnie 🙂
30
It’d be interesting to get someone with synesthesia to read some Concrete poetry, “The Mouse’s Tale” might smell like the back of the fridge. 🙂
20
unsurprisingly, Guardian picks up this story, tho it would seem to be FAR FROM CLEAR what it is all about.
rover547 in the comments rethinks a couple of points he makes in the comment i’ve excerpted, but it’s clear Weinstein is equally confused, which reinforces the idea it’s just another political beat-up (with most comments to match):
19 March: Gawker: Adam Weinstein: Florida Orders Mental Exam for Worker Who Pushed Climate Change Agenda
Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s unofficial official policy of climate denial has taken a turn for the bizarre: A high-level employee in the state Department of Environmental Protection now says he was suspended and told to get a medical evaluation for refusing to purge mentions of climate change from a state record.
Scott—the dumbest politician in the history of politicians, capable of tuning out an entire room of scientists confronting him with fact-type thingies—has come under fire for more than a week…
FIRST COMMENT:
by rover537:
I think Florida is nuts, and because I’m a sane person, I believe in climate change. I’m not going to weigh in on him being referred for a mental eval in this case (it seems bizarre). But looking at the reprimand he received as the only real “evidence” in front of me, the complaint from PEER seems questionable factually. It seems Mr. Bibler was at this meeting when he decided to engage in personal political advocacy. After a complaint, he was asked by his supervisory to provide his summary of what happened at the meeting (not, as it suggests in the article, “official minutes”). He provide a very brief, not explanatory document which, if you have any familiarity with governmental (or even non-governmental) meetings, clearly resembles an official agenda (not minutes, but an agenda). The document doesn’t mention Keystone at all (which the complaint was based on). He was asked to fix the document so that it wasn’t a misrepresentation as an official agenda — nowhere do I see directions that he scrub all references to climate change. (Again, it would appear that the real problem isn’t that the document has the words “climate change” on it — it’s that it doesn’t mention his personal advocacy regarding Keystone, which was the basis of the complaint in the first place, at all.) Instead of actually providing the summary his supervisory asked for, he then sent a juvenile response.
This policy, if it is the policy, is ridiculous and inexcusable. But Bibler sounds like an asshole who wasn’t even punished pursuant to the policy. I think it might be best to save the outrage on this one (or delay the outrage until more facts come out)…
Adam Weinstein replies:
Quite right! As I point out in the post, there were clear grounds for Bibler being reprimanded for being dumb and argumentative, and the Keystone talk seemed like a waste of the meeting attendees’ time. He and PEER claim the punishment was a direct result of refusing to purge the climate change points out of the record, and the documents can be read as supporting that claim — and they can also be read as not supporting it. Which is why I tried to focus on who’s claiming what and also the propriety of the medical evaluation, which seems extreme in any case.
To know more, we’d have to FOIA some emails. Which I’m doing…
http://gawker.com/florida-orders-mental-exam-for-worker-who-pushed-climat-1692360435
40
A little off topic but it does annoy me…
The wonders of Wikipedia–
Jo’s intro for this subject with the line “Marvel that last year the corals around Vanuatu coped with a five degree Celsius rise over just a six month period (like they do every year). But put on your panic-hat at the thought of them surviving a fraction of degree over a century.”
Wow I thought, I have a look around at general info on coral.
hummm, wiki must have the basics so I looked.
Coral has been around for 500 million year I learned, the more modern types developed 100 million years later.
Yep, these fascinating creature have been around a while– through ice ages and global warm periods, they’ve lived with CO2 levels much, much higher and lower than presently.
But then came Wiki’s usual nonsense “Broader threats are sea temperature rise, sea level rise and pH changes from ocean acidification, all associated with greenhouse gas emissions.[32] In 1998, 16% of the world’s reefs died as a result of increased water temperature.[33] It then blathers on about coral beaching and how [it is predicted] that “Over 50% of the world’s coral reefs may be destroyed by 2030; as a result, most nations protect them through environmental laws.[38]”
Yes they are so fragile that why they’ve only been around a few million years more than humans. How much does the CO2 and temperature vary then for the corals Jo is commenting about?
Thank-you https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral .
50
That latter para in tomOmason’s post above has the hall marks of a certain nasty and rather rabid global warming believing “Stoat” aka William Connolley who made some cameo troll appearances here a few months ago, and who will most likely have got his nasty little snout into savaging yet another WikI article that has any vestige of a link at all with Climate.
And that conclusion that was bolded certainly sounds like another of his or his supporting cast of advocates deliberate butchering of the data together with, as consequence, the destruction of the remaining trustworthiness and veracity of any climate related information in Wikipedia
60
On QLD election day, I asked all the ‘save the Barrier Reef’ campaigners to tell me the age of the reef ? Their answer was ‘several millions of years’ Wiki and all other references must be wrong to claim it is up to 10,000 years old. Alarmists and Science is like mixing water with oil
50
Great Barrier Reef was killed many times and will be killed again through exposure or sea level fall. It existed since 20-30 mln and disappeared for a few millions years before regenerating again.
The progressive greens loving science so much big F again.
20
ScienceCheck: is warming intensifying cyclones in the Pacific?
Senator Milne’s statement that global warming is intensifying cyclones in the Pacific cannot be verified at present but cyclones are intensifying in concert with rising sea surface temperatures.
30
The facts show vanuatu’s cyclones are on the decline, they were hit by 6 cyclones just a few decades ago. All tropical storms are on the decline, the ”alarmists” try to tell us that 1 (one) weather event is proof of a trend, it is not !
40
Obama, 2008:
“This is the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow, and our planet began to heal.”
19 March, 2015: Obama backers handle sale of ‘Magnum P.I.’ house, sparking speculation of a presidential move
. . .
Hawaiian waterfront retirement for Obama.
Guess the sea levels have stopped rising.
80
Do filling sea areas to make islands run ways ports all sorts of things change sea levels.
41
the costs of solar and win grow and grow:
19 March: Reuters: Geert De Clercq: Power grid operators aim to get smart as Europe turns green
The owners of Europe’s electricity grids say they need an injection of cash and a fresh look at regulation if they are to build and operate new, high-tech networks that can channel green energy sources into homes across the region.
So-called smart grids that can handle the intermittent flow of solar and wind energy are vital, say energy firms, if the EU is to meet its renewable energy and carbon emissions targets.
“If we want more renewables, we need smarter grids,” said Joao Torres, CEO of Portugal’s EDP Distribuicao and head of the distribution system operators’ lobby group EDSO…
For decades, the low- and medium-voltage networks that bring power into people’s homes were low-tech, one-directional cables.
But with 90 percent of Europe’s renewable energy now connected through those systems, the distribution system operators (DSOs) have been forced to manage two-directional power flows so that, for example, citizens with solar panels can both produce and consume power.
France’s ERDF, the distribution grid of utility EDF , invested 3 billion euros in 2013 to upgrade its networks, but this kind of investment is rare in an industry whose income depends on tariffs that some state regulators want to keep as low as possible to protect consumers…
The International Energy Agency estimates that between 2014 and 2025, the EU will invest $413 billion in power networks. About three-quarters of that will go to distribution lines…
However, even if the necessary investment comes their way, the DSOs – mostly publicly owned firms controlled by strict rules about what they charge customers – say they need help from regulators in order to turn a profit from the new smart grids…
The DSOs have asked EU Energy Commissioner Arias Canete to help them convince national regulators to raise network tariffs in order to fund new investment…
Power storage – through utility-sized batteries or pumped storage plants – is particularly important, they say, to balance out the variable flow of solar and wind…
One of the biggest prizes is the market for electric vehicle charging stations, which has been struggling to take off because consumers are reluctant to buy electric cars until there are more charging points.
In a note to French President Francois Hollande about EU energy networks, Michel Derdevet, a board member of Europe’s biggest DSO ERDF recommended setting up a 70,000 km EU-wide network of charging stations – with investment from European DSOs – to tap into this pent-up but potentially huge market.
One new activity in which DSOs have not been challenged are “smart meters”, which provide real-time information about power consumption.
Most EU countries are allowing their DSOs to invest in their roll-out, supported by an EU directive requiring 80 percent of households to have smart meters by 2020…
These meters are already at the centre of fierce debate about who will benefit from the reams of consumption data they will generate – utilities, power retailers, DSOs, or Google-style specialists with experience in monetising customer data…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/19/power-distribution-europe-idUSL6N0WI3IR20150319
30
meant to write “cost of solar and WIND” of course.
the thought we could spend the rest of our lives putting up with the following nonsense is making me quite angry:
19 March: CarbonBrief: Simon Evans: Are the UK’s emissions really falling or has it outsourced them to China?
Government claims to be leading the world on emissions reductions have been challenged by new research, the BBC reports today.
The BBC says UK emissions are rising, not falling, once pollution in imported goods from the likes of China are included…
Traditional emissions accounting only considers the greenhouse gases generated within a country’s own borders. In other words, emissions produced in the UK are allocated to the UK. On this measure, UK emissions have fallen dramatically to around 25% below 1990 levels.
But this impressive record is illusory, the BBC report says, because of emissions embedded in imported goods. This is not a new idea. For instance, this 2012 Guardian article reports MPs’ claims that the UK has “merely outsourced emissions to China”…
If someone in the UK buys an Audi or an iPhone, then the UK is handed responsibility for the emissions needed to make them. Using this method, new research from the University of Leeds finds the UK’s record looks less impressive, with emissions in 2012 just 7% below 1990 levels…
The UK’s imported emissions have increased over the past two decades so that they now make up around half of the UK’s climate footprint, as the chart below shows…
It’s worth noting that most of the UK’s imported emissions are not from China, however, contrary to popular perceptions. About a quarter of imported emissions come from Europe and around a fifth from China, with roughly another fifth coming from Africa…
So, what does all this mean for climate politics? One of the biggest challenges for global climate talks it around how to divide up emissions-cutting effort fairly. If UK consumption is driving emissions overseas, perhaps it would be fair to make the UK responsible.
India has hinted it would like to shift towards consumption-based responsibility for emissions, a move that some say could unlock stalled climate talks. The idea does not feature in the draft UN climate negotiating text, however, which contains wording contributed by all countries…
But there might still be a role for consumption emissions at this year’s climate talks. Prof John Barrett, lead author of the new UK consumption emissions research, tells Carbon Brief:
“It seems to me the greater the emissions effort the EU can put forward, it gives less and less room for others to walk away from a [climate] deal and say you’re not doing your bit.”…
***For a good chance of limiting warming to below two degrees, the challenge of decoupling emissions from growth will have to be cracked.
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/are-the-uks-emissions-really-falling-or-has-it-outsourced-them-to-china/
30
Guardian, u and the Greens were not elected to run the UK, in case u didn’t realise it. as for Ed Davey, all he’s good at is talking out of both sides of his mouth.
CAGW has been responsible for so much stupidity:
20 March: Guardian: James Ball: Coalition branded climate-change deniers over North Sea oil boost
Green party deplores budget’s £1.3bn handout to oil producers, as five-year plan for 120m more barrels is equated to extra 50m tonnes of CO2
Plans to boost the North Sea oil industry, announced in the budget, could lead to the UK emitting tens of millions more tonnes of CO2 over the next five years, Guardian analysis reveals…
“This Lib Dem, Conservative coalition government started claiming to be the ‘greenest government ever’, and ended giving huge subsidies to the oil industry,” said Andrew Cooper, the (Green) party’s spokesman on energy. “More investment is really needed in energy efficiency and renewable energy, precisely the areas this government has cut … this government are climate-change deniers in all but name.”…
Ed Davey, the energy secretary, last week pledged his support for the Guardian’s “keep it in the ground” campaign, which urges keeping most of the discovered fossil fuel deposits in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change. However, Davey defended supporting North Sea oil extraction in the short-term as a solution to the UK’s dependence on Russia and the Middle East for energy resources.
“I have been clear that coal assets are very risky but you are not going to get rid of cars and gas heating systems overnight and so we are going to need quite a lot of oil and gas,” he said. “The question is, would you like that to come from Russia and Qatar or locally where it is well regulated, gives us jobs and provides tax revenues?”…
A spokesperson for the Department of Energy and Climate Change said: “The UK will continue to need oil and gas as a part of our energy mix even as we cut our carbon emissions over the coming decades. That includes working to maximise home-grown energy sources rather than relying on imports from volatile markets like Russia and the Middle East, which is why the government continues to work hard to support the future of the North Sea industry.”…
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/19/coalition-branded-climate-change-deniers-over-north-sea-oil-boost
30
The big problem with Ed Davey is that, like a lot of politicians these days, the meaning of the words they speak gets lost in a sonic splash of reverberant echo caused by having a large resonant cavity located just behind the eye sockets.
40
You have to wonder what would produce further sea level rises after the end of the last ice age and the 300m rise?
Remember floating ice does not raise sea levels when it melts.
Antartica is so incredibly cold that +4C would not budge anything over land. In the Northern hemisphere, the ice and snow all melts every year in summer, even the sea ice, but no one drowns. It would be great if it all melted. The Gulf of Finland is fine for swimming. I have crossed Siberia in summer. All the animals head North. Nothing left of the ice and snow and the polar bears sit on the brown dirt, hungry. So why would +1C in the average make a difference? Every year in Colorado it goes from -40C to +40C. Even the arctic reaches +20C every summer. We get massive Climate Change every year and not a problem?
So where is all this worrying rise in sea level from extra water coming from? Would someone please explain? Or are we measuring geological movement? As for coral atolls, they keep rising as the mountains sink and some are 4km of solid coral and maintain their heights as they only grow in shallow water. The Pacific islands have only been settled in the last 1,000 years anyway and nothing was built except recently. This rising sea level scare seems to be self justifying nonsense, or perhaps the investors and engineers who have built cities and many multi billion $ airports at sea level have made ghastly mistakes. In fact Hong Kong is starting to build a new $20Bn runway in the ocean. No one seriously believes this stuff. This is past skeptical. It is nonsense, frustrated warmists desperately seeking Global Warming, disaster and sea level rises.
130
We currently live in what geos call a highstand meaning that the relative sea level is at or near its maximum. Stability of the sea level also directly led to the stabilisation of the coast and hence the establishment of the ancient cultures. This allowed building of coastal pyramids and other ancient cultures that naturally were drawn to the coast. Egyptian, Greek and roman and other cultures had to rely on such stability for their harbours to be in one place rather than moving them all the time or being destroyed by sea level change. Troy has been established in one place and never moved during its existence for thousand of years. Why? Because the sea level never or hardly moved. Highstand is the answer. This was answered through sequence stratigraphy some 30 years ago, the student and the creator of this geo branch that I am now.
00
shock, horror, “good” billionaire makes money by investing in fossil fuels!
20 March: Guardian: Revealed: Gates Foundation’s $1.4bn in fossil fuel investments
Analysis of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s most recent tax filing reveals huge investments in the world’s biggest fossil fuel companies
by Damian Carrington and Karl Mathiesen
The charity run by Bill and Melinda Gates, who say the threat of climate change is so serious that immediate action is needed, held at least $1.4bn (£1bn) of investments in the world’s biggest fossil fuel companies, according to a Guardian analysis of the charity’s most recent tax filing in 2013.
The companies include BP, responsible for the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, Anadarko Petroleum, which was recently forced to pay a $5bn environmental clean-up charge and Brazilian mining company Vale, voted the corporation with most “contempt for the environment and human rights” in the world clocking over 25,000 votes in the Public Eye annual awards…
A Guardian campaign, launched on Monday and already backed by over 95,000 people is asking the Gates to sell their fossil fuel investments…
The Guardian analysis of the Gates endowment revealed investments in 35 of the top 200 companies as ranked by the carbon held in their reserves. These included coal giants Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Glencore Xstrata and Peabody Energy, the oil majors Shell, ConocoPhillips, Chevron and Total and Brazilian oil company Petrobras, currently embroiled in a corruption scandal.
“This is very shocking. I never knew that they had so much of this kind of investment,” said Nnimmo Bassey, a Nigerian activist who received the Right Livelihood Award in 2010 for “revealing the full ecological and human horrors of oil production” in the Niger delta where many oil majors operate…
Bill McKibben, who leads the fast-growing Go Fossil Free campaign, said: “The Gates Foundation has worked so hard to grapple with global poverty. But at the same time they’re investing in the same companies that drive climate change, which endless studies now show is one of the key factors behind … global poverty. The developing world deserves better than this kind of tunnel vision.”…
A spokesman for Bill Gates’s private office said: “We respect the passion of advocates for action on climate change, and recognise that there are many views on how best to address it. Bill is privately investing considerable time and resources in the effort [to develop clean energy].”
***The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation declined to comment on fossil fuel divestment and said all investment decisions were taken by a separate entity, the Asset Trust, which manages the endowment but never makes public comments…
Dorsey (Ellen Dorsey, executive director of the $168m Wallace Global Fund) said fossil fuel divestment by the Gates charity would be a huge boost for the fight against climate change: “For a foundation with such global prominence to lend its full weight – with grants and investments combined – would be ***game changing.”…
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/19/gates-foundation-has-14bn-in-fossil-fuels-investments-guardian-analysis
recall that “game-changer” has become a major meme of the CAGW crowd of late, e.g. the Acton Institute blog piece (posted on an earlier thread) by Bruce Edward Walker, about a Citizens Climate Lobby meeting at his local library, with presentations by Naomi Oreskes and Lonnie Ellis, associate director of the Catholic Climate Covenant, about which he wrote:
“Reminding attendees that Pope Francis has an “approval rating politicians would kill for,” Ellis says the pontiff’s message will be “potentially a game-changer”—as was every development reported during the meeting from Oreskes’ “game-changing” claim for the film adaptation of her book to Ms. Koper’s assertion her CCL local’s upcoming efforts also will be “game-changing.” Your writer can attest to the meeting’s game-changing effects on his Lenten vow to give up snacking; the chocolate-chip cookies finally broke down my resistance after the third pass, and were delicious.”
July 2014: Forbes: Kelly Flynn: Game Changers In Energy Making Moves At
Stanford, MIT
At the country’s leading universities, thousands of new ideas are being explored and developed, so it’s difficult for anyone to determine which onesare truly the next game changers. But in a new book, Game Changers: Energy
on the Move, Director of MIT Energy Initiative Robert Armstrong and Stanford’s Hoover Institute Distinguished Fellow George Shultz have used their expertise to identify transforming innovations in the energy sector.
The book explores five R&D categories (natural gas; solar photovoltaics; grid-scale storage; electric cars; and LED lighting) and presents projectsat various stages of development in each of those fields. I had the pleasure
of speaking to Robert Armstrong who described the energy landscape as the field needing our immediate attention and greater financial support…
Flynn: Where did the idea for this book come from, and who do you see as the intended audience?
Armstrong: It came out of discussions we had at Stanford and MIT. It is our joint belief that now, more than ever before, we need inexpensive, reliable, and cleaner energy to propel our economy forward, ensure national security
interests, and combat climate change…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryflynn/2014/07/02/game-changers-in-energy-making-moves-at-stanford-mit/
20
Could Climate Sensitivity be mistaken for some Warmists’ reaction to their collapsing ‘consensus’?
Climate Alarmism Takes One Helluva Beating , courtesy of GWPF.
30
in a quick search, haven’t seen an abc headline & the SBS one – the most recent article online – is headlined ” Antarctic medical evacuation continues”.
don’t like mentioning ICE/Antarctic, ABC/SBS?
20 March: News Ltd: Ice hampers Antarctic medical evacuation
EMERGENCY efforts to evacuate a seriously ill man from Australia’s Antarctic Davis station are being hampered by sea ice.
THE ice breaker vessel Aurora Australis, which left the base on Tuesday, has turned back to collect the expeditioner who fell ill late on Wednesday with a fast-deteriorating, but undisclosed, medical condition…
“Challenging sea ice conditions are slowing efforts,” the Division said in an update on Friday afternoon.
“The ship is currently 200 nautical miles from Davis but is navigating through increasing areas of pack ice.”
The Aurora Australis is not expected to reach Davis station until overnight Saturday at the earliest, when the patient will be taken on board by helicopter…
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/antarctic-evacuation-still-a-day-away/story-e6frfku9-1227270850568
20
Pat
Did you also notice that a second ship is stuck in the fast melting* Arctic. At this rate whole fleets will be stranded. *reference Al Gore’s melted or nonexistent ice.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1275679-marine-atlantic-ferry-finally-closing-in-on-north-sydney-port
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/mv-highlanders-breaks-through-ice-off-cape-breton-1.2998070
10
overnight, BBC “Science In Action”, we’re headed for a food CRISIS…lpresenter says IPCC, FAO, World Bank are influential and Governments will listen to them blah blah.
can’t find the audio on “Science in Action”, which doesn’t even have the story, or on “The Science Hour”.
perhaps someone else can located the audio:
20 March: BBC The Science Hour: Farming African Wet Savannah
The global population is estimated to rise to 9.2 billion in 2050, and to feed us all, it has been calculated that we will need 70% more food production. The need to find more sustainable sources of food has led governments and intergovernmental groups such as the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN and even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to look for supplementary, and alternative, regions to grow crops, both for food and biofuels. One type of habitat that is getting a lot of focus, and is assumed to be suitable is wet savannah, particularly those in Africa…
But these habitats, with their sufficient rainfall and lack of dense cover, argues Tim Searchinger in Nature Climate Change this week, are not a low environmental cost solution for converting to cropland…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02m14qd
surely the Greens/Greenpeace & other assorted CAGW fanatics will be breaking away from the IPCC & condemning the World Bank/FAO after this endorsement to arm wet savannahs!
17 March: CarbonBrief: Robert McSweeney: Farming Africa’s wet savannahs would have a high climate cost, study warns
As the global population rises, some scientists have suggested that Africa’s wet savannahs could be ideal for growing the extra crops needed to meet the growing demand for food and bioenergy.
But it isn’t quite the solution it seems, according to new research…
‘Wet savannah’ describes warm, tropical areas areas that are wet enough to support crops and aren’t covered with dense forest. Africa is home to around half of the world’s wet savannah. Much of it is found in the Guinea Savannah, which makes up around a third of sub-Saharan Africa…
For example, a 2009 World Bank and United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) report described the Guinea Savannah as “one of the world’s largest underused agricultural land reserves”, with around 400 million hectares available to convert into farmland.
But the new paper, published in Nature Climate Change, says that these studies underestimate the environmental impact of converting the land for farming.
While the World Bank and FAO acknowledge the effect on biodiversity, they do not consider the amount of carbon that would be released, the researchers say that Africa’s wet savannahs are ripe for cultivation because they aren’t covered by trees…
The new study’s lead author Dr Timothy Searchinger, a research scholar at Princeton University, tells Carbon Brief…
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/farming-africas-wet-savannahs-would-have-high-environmental-costs-study-warns/
so far, this is getting little attention in the MSM.
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Where this report mentions that more land is needed to grow crops for food ….. and biofuels.
How iniquitous is this last bit about biofuels.
They need to feed that ever increasing population. Most of that population will be in Countries not considered as already developed, in other words, the World’s (most desperately) poorest people.
So they need land to grow crops for biofuels.
Those biofuels are nearly all consumed in already developed Countries.
So, they’re going to go to a non developed Continent, Africa, and grow crops which will be converted to biofuels and exported back to already Developed Countries.
(Tony, there’s logic somewhere in all of that!)
Currently in the U.S. 40% of the whole Country’s corn crop is converted to biofuel.
That’s driving up the price for corn, making it even more inaccessible to the World’s poorest people who, for centuries have relied on corn as a staple food.
What have we become?
Tony.
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Import wood-chips to UK from US forests, import bio-fuels from
potential food producing land in Africa?. How eco-nuts is that?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2290444/Madness-How-pay-billions-electricity-bills-Britains-biggest-power-station-switch-coal-wood-chips–wont-help-planet-jot.html
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VIDEO: 2 mins: NBC: Storm Brings Snow to Northeast on First Day of Spring
The first day of spring skipped the sunshine and brought snow to parts of the East Coast Friday, dusting a region from Washington, D.C. to New England as the latest storm in a winter that seemed to have no end swept through…
Snow in western Maryland contributed to car crashes that sent several people to the hospital and shut down part of Interstate 68, NBC Washington reported…
Weather advisories were posted across eight states ahead of the official start of spring at 6:45 p.m. ET. New York City and Philadelphia last saw measurable snowfall totals on the first day of spring in 1965, according to The Weather Channel…
Residents of Massachusetts, which has been battered by record-setting snowfall this winter, were keeping their chins up. “I’m sick of it,” Donna Bohan, 52, a lifelong South Boston resident, told The Associated Press. “I want to not have to wear my boots, and I want to be able to take a nice walk”…
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/spring-snow-expected-northeast-mid-atlantic-n327041
to their credit, while the paper is in the middle of a Global Warming frenzy of reporting, Guardian does carry this AP report:
20 March: Guardian: AP: First day of spring to deliver more snow to winter-weary US north-east
Up to 5in of snow expected near Philadelphia and New York City
Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool into next week
In meteorological March Madness, winter is scoring an upset…
Millions of people in the storm’s path have endured epic snowfalls and below-zero temperatures.
Spring might take a while to fully win out, Maue said. Temperatures will remain unseasonable cool into next week and another system with snow potential is headed for the midwest, he said…
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/mar/19/snow-storm-us-north-east-first-day-of-spring-new-york-philadelphia
Independent has other Spring news!
First day of Spring in northern hemisphere celebrated with Google doodle
The Independent – 10 hours ago
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of course, this is the more common story being carried by the MSM:
20 March: Fox: Global temps are up, but Chicago stuck with record cold
CHICAGO (Sun-Times Media Wire) –
Global temperatures have reached a record high in 2015 – but, not surprisingly, Chicagoans aren’t feeling the same warmth…
However, here in Chicago, we weren’t so lucky. February tied the record set in 1875 for the coldest February since 1880 with an average
temperature of 14.6 degrees, according to the weather service.
February was also the third-snowiest on record for Chicago, with more than 26 inches of snow measured at O’Hare, according to weather
service records.
Globally, February 2015 was the second warmest on record, according to the NCDC. That means the globally averaged temperature over
land and ocean surfaces was the second highest since record keeping began in 1880…
The same period of December through February was the warmest on record globally, with a land surface average temperature 2.63 degrees above the 20th century average, according
to NCDC records.
http://www.myfoxchicago.com/story/28563773/global-temps-are-up-but-chicago-stuck-with-record-cold
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tomomason – thanx for the Arctic links. i’ve posted them at WUWT.
Bolt has a thread on this:
20 March: ArtsHub: Madeleine Dore: Cairns artists call for Abbott’s head
A group of musicians are using art as protest and controversially calling for the beheading of Tony Abbott.
Musicians have used song as a means of protest to the Abbott Government’s ‘bleak and sterile environment’, donating their time to compose
Down the Abbott Hole.
***Just hours after its release, the song is being streamed online and played by radio stations the across country.
Down the Abbott Hole is
performed and composed by Cairns artist Zelda Grimshaw, with contributions by drummer and recording engineer Nigel Pegrum, and
saxophonists Andree Baudet and Ruedi Homberger.
The artists hope the song will inspire other Australians to voice their dissent, and ultimately escape the ‘Abbott Hole’ in which ‘fear reigns
over logic, and the atmosphere is “cold as ice, black as coal”.’…
In a statement Grimshaw said, ‘Economically, environmentally, and in terms of social equality, Tony’s cronies have plunged us all into a dark age.’ …
Grimshaw said, ‘We speak for millions of Australians in saying that Tony Abbott is a national embarrassment, and an environmental disaster.
‘Since Australia fell down the Abbott hole, we have become the first nation in the world to overturn our climate change policies.”…
With song lyrics ‘I’ll be the Cheshire Cat, the Mad Hatter and his Hat,’ through the medium of song, Grimshaw is prepared to be a voice for
the majority.
‘We need to see a parliament that governs for the majority, and that governs for the future. Perhaps Tony Abbott and his hard line Catholic ministers
are looking forward to an apocalypse, but most Australians want to see a move to renewable energy, and a chance for continued human
habitation on earth.
‘In the 21st century, it is not credible to claim that ‘science is not conclusive’. Abbott’s government is either delusional or guilty of a dangerous
level of deceit. Bring on the double dissolution!’
The song concludes with Grimshaw repeating ‘Off with his head!’… and we will be free of this Abbott hole!’
(About the author: Madeleine Dore is ArtsHub’s Deputy Editor and reports for the Publishing & Writing Hub. Madeleine is
fascinated by the intersection of art and entrepreneurship and is dedicated to communities that encourage creative and artistic careers.)
COMMENTS:
john: With all the innocent beheading’s by Islamic extremists .
This song is unfunny and sick .
They say music is reflection of a persons soul .
The song says it all about the musicians
Jan Plummer: So there is anti-Catholicism, blind adherence to scientific theories, and advocating the murder of a human being. Lovely
ghl: Lovely voice, mindless politics
http://performing.artshub.com.au/news-article/news/performing-arts/madeleine-dore/cairns-artists-call-for-abbotts-head-247473?utm_source=ArtsHub+Australia&utm_campaign=9677b59af5-UA-828966-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_2a8ea75e81-9677b59af5-303864985
beginning with Zelda:
Nov 2014: ABC: Renee Cluff: Cairns protesters demand climate change be put back on G20 agenda
Organiser Zelda Grimshaw said the group, all dressed in green, also staged an hour-long sit-in at the Esplanade lagoon, before marching to
federal MP Warren Entsch’s office.
She said climate change should be the primary topic of discussion at the summit.
“Being in a tropical zone we’re going to be harder hit by extreme weather events, so cyclones, floods, drought, all those sorts of things,” she said.
“I mean the whole of Australia is a fragile ecology in fact, so it will be really hard hit by the climate change that is predicted.”
She said it was part of a wider, week-long protest led by the Australian Conservation Foundation…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-14/cairns-sit-in-demands-climate-change-be-put-back/5890894
to be continued…
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back to the delightful Zelda shortly.
first, this is Ruedi, including a pic.
(have checked the pic against sax player Ruedi pic in google images, and it is him)
PDF: 20 pages: Greenpeace: 2010 Annual Review
(P14) Donors: Our talented musician supporter Ruedi Homberger lives in the
rainforest in Kuranda, Queensland with his partner Lee. He has generously
supported Greenpeace for over seven years.
“I donate to Greenpeace because of the wonderful enthusiasm and high level
of dedication of the men and women working for the organisation and for the
essential change and awareness they bring about.”
Lee says he’s been inspired by the “cutting edge” campaign taking on ANZ,
and in turn, he is inspiring us.
Ruedi and Lee grow all their own fruit and vegies, have installed a solar
hot water tank and use 100% renewable energy.
http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/PageFiles/333219/Annual_Reveiw_10_Final%20online.pdf
so far have only found this local station playing the record and puutting it online, which does not mean it is not being played on air elsewhere:
4CA Cairns: Breakfast Show: Latest from Michael J Bailey:
Down the Abbott Hole. Hit or Miss
Have a listen and make up your own mind from a group of local Cairns musicians and their thoughts on Tony Abbott.
https://soundcloud.com/zelda-da/down-the-abbott-hole
one comment:
Jesse Walker
Bigoted, hysterical, hateful. Do they not realise how nasty and idiotic they sound screeching such vile nonsense? Have they no self-awareness at all?
http://www.4ca.com.au/breakfast/michael-s-latest/47466-down-the-abbott-hole-hit-or-miss
(4CA Grant Broadcasters: The big push north: In August 2013, Grant Broadcasters acquired Prime Media’s ten radio stations in Queensland covering the Sunshine Coast, Gympie, Gladstone, Mackay, Rockhampton, Townsville & Cairns to make Grant Broadcasters one of the largest holders of commercial radio stations in the country. Directors: Managing Director, Mrs Janet Cameron)
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the Greenpeace donor link is now in moderation.
this was intended to come after that comment, but will post it now anyway.
***when did FOUR become a handful? what non-CAGW protest with four people would get any press, much less this lengthy piece? chance to see Zelda’s pic:
Nov 2014: Cairns Post: Anika Hume: Cairns locals launch lagoon sit-in against climate change being written off G20 agenda
PHOTO CAPTION: (L-R) Myra Gold, Jim Cavill, Zelda Grimshaw and Nicole Hunter (Australian Conservation Foundation) hold placards at the Esplanade Lagoon.
A GREEN hue washed over the Cairns Lagoon shallows yesterday as a ***handful of Far Northern residents launched a sit-in rallying for climate change to be placed back on the G20 agenda…
The action was one of more than 90 over three days nationwide led by the Australian Conservation Foundation in the lead-up to the G20 conference.
ACF representative Nicole Hunter said climate change was “the most important issue for future generations”…
Resident Zelda Grimshaw said it was time climate policy was driven by science, not by big business.
“So we are asking the G20 leaders to listen to their people and govern for the billions, not the billionaires,” she said…
With the window fast closing for climate change to be added in to the summit agenda, Ms Grimshaw said the group remained hopeful that senior world leaders such as Barack Obama would find a way to ensure it was addressed regardless.
“We had the United Nations Secretary-General at the head of the People’s Climate March in New York City on September 25, so we definitely have some people very high up in the international realms of power who are with us on this, we just need our own government to get with the program,” she said….
The group also visited Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch’s office in support of a GetUp! campaign to ensure the reported 72 per cent of Australians who wanted to keep or expand the renewable energy target were heard by all local members…
http://www.cairnspost.com.au/business/cairns-locals-launch-lagoon-sitin-against-climate-change-being-written-off-g20-agenda/story-fnpqqgx0-1227122637554
Zelda is a little partisan when it comes to politics:
Reviews: Media-culture.org: An inspiring tome for aspiring troublemakers
Date: Monday, June 28 (2009?)
For instance, Zelda Grimshaw and Liz Connor were two of ‘John Howard’s Ladies’ who haunted the PM during the 2004 election campaign.
They describe the fun they had operating under the names of Bea Wight and Bea Wright, and ‘frocking up’ in fabulous 1950s housewives’ outfits to confront Howard (119). Liz says ‘We were in blue in 2004, but we went pink in 2007 because we found these four remarkable hats— just amazingly bad hats. Once we had the hats, it was like, ‘Now we’re onto something’’.
‘Our motives were quite pure,’ says Zelda; ‘pure hatred of Mr Howard! We hated his guts. We wanted him gone’ (118).
http://reviews.media-culture.org.au/modules.php?name=News&file=print&sid=3950
on the Artshub link in my first comment, check out their About page, & note the job ads on their homepage:
About Artshub
Welcome to the home of the Australian arts industry.
ArtsHub is Australia’s leading portal for professionals working within the arts, where a community of approximately 80,000 registered users; 13,000 premium members; and hundreds of dedicated contributors read, write and share their knowledge and passion for the industry.
Since its launch in 2000 as a small weekly jobs bulletin covering the performing arts, ArtsHub has continued to grow organically in both size and scope…
Company members use ArtsHub to promote their vacant positions, events, or products/services to the B2B community of 110,000 arts industry professionals that visit the portal monthly…
SCROLL DOWN for Management, Staff, etc.
—
Artsbub obviously sees itself as an arbiter of the arts, so why would their deputy Editor, Madeleine Dore write such an uncritical piece about something as disgusting as this record by Zelda & her crew?
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ok…it has all gone thru in the correct order. i shall leave it at that. thanx jo.
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it appears 4CA or someone else has removed the “abbott hole” song from their soundcloud link:
Sorry! Something went wrong
https://soundcloud.com/zelda-da/down-the-abbott-hole
forgot to post this one mentioning Avaaz & GetUp.
Madeleine Dore should have headlined her Artshub piece “Manmade Global warming ACTIVISTS call for Abbott’s head” and NOT “Cairns artists call for Abbott’s head”. then again, why give it publicity at all?
Sept 2014: First-Thoughts.org: Climate March
Release People’s Climate March 19.09.2014 What: CAIRNS LEADS THE WORLD IN
HISTORIC GLOBAL CLIMATE MARCH…
When: Sunday 21st September 9 – 10.30am Who: 2 million ***Avaaz members around the world, ***Get Up, Cairns citizens Why: 100% clean energy by 2050: G20 leaders must govern for the 99%, Sunday 21st September Cairns residents will take the lead in the largest climate mobilisation in
history. Cairns people will join millions worldwide, from thousands of towns and cities in every continent, in a march calling for action on dangerous global
warming. “Cairns is in the unique situation of holding our People’s Climate March just as our city is hosting some of the most powerful decision makers in the world at the G20 Finance Summit”, says local person ***Zelda Grimshaw.
“We are asking world leaders to govern for the ***90% of people worldwide who see Climate Change as a serious problem….
http://first-thoughts.org/on/Climate+March/
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Well, well, well. It helps to read Dr. Gray’s report in full. Very interesting.
His closing conclusions:
Delightful. It’s a freely downloadable PDF from the Science and Public Policy Institute. I learnt some new things from it, for example:
[installed Jan 1993]
which, given Vanuatu’s location right on the edge of the Vanuatu Trench is no surprise.
Apparently the high winds in Tropical Cyclones depress sea levels. The storm surge pushed away by the cyclone has to come from somewhere and apparently it takes some time for the water to return from whence it was pushed. Hence, relative sea levels rise. Shoulda thort of dat!.
Get yourself a copy, SillyFilly and enjoy it.
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