Is this the way the Great Global Warming Scare fades out?
The UK newspapers are full of “Maunder Freeze Coming” as forecast by Ineson et al.[1] Rest assured, the solar-driven-cold is only a local effect, only 0.1C, and only a vague short 20 to 40 winters to come. The Sun, which has been ruled out as a major cause of global warming, is still not a cause of global warming — it’s just a minor technical issue called UV from a local star, which will be affecting an ocean current. Then the Big 6.6 degrees of heatstroke will land upon us.
Britain could be on the verge of a mini Ice Age as the Sun enters a cooler phase, the Met Office warned yesterday.
The last big chill was felt hundreds of years ago when Frost Fairs were held on the frozen River Thames.
However the Met Office said the new freeze will not be enough to cancel out the effects of global warming.
We’ve seen this all before, but not on this scale. If there was a volatility index — like a VIX for climate-PR — it would be setting records. The contradictions are head-snapping. Climate Change will shrink bread, make babies small, ruin coffee, and generally cause the extinction of everything, but in the meantime, there’s a Mini-Ice Age in the kitchen that will hit before your 90th Birthday. What to do? Keep sending those cheques for the carbon reduction, and scratch the snow off the solar panel, right?
If the UK gets “weather”, the UK Met Office was “right”.
The forecast cooling is described in ominous, awesome language, but stay calm, it’s only 0.1C of cooling, practically nothing. If an ice-age arrives, the UK Met Office will be lauded as stars, but if winters stay the same, they are still 100% accurate; and don’t change the scoreboard if January heatwaves arrive instead. If the UK gets “weather”, the UK Met Office was “right”.
A few years ago there were endless mild winters on-the-way, now we’re talking of “Frost Fairs” and “Maunder Minimums” but nobody is issuing headlines of “UK MET OFFICE BACKFLIPS”. There’s no admission here that their 95%-certain-models missed this ice age in all 3,000 runs over the last 20 years, or that if the Sun can bring future cold, it might have had a role in past warmth, eh?
A Maunder type phase of the sun,
Could put climate-change hype on the run,
When predictions would crumble,
And temperatures tumble,
As a Mini Ice Age had begun.
— Ruairi
There’s no sign that if UV changes the Northern Atlantic, maybe it has an effect on the South Pacific or the Eastern Indian too? Not to mention that it’s been a tenet of climate modeling that the models don’t do the regional predictions, just the the global type.
There’s also no mention that this is what a lot of skeptics have been saying, and some for years. The rabid Deniers of East Anti-Science beat the Met Office?
No one is talking either of Australian rivers freezing over, but I wonder whether every Western nation will end up with its own private ice age? Remember, warming is a global phenomenon, but cooling just happens locally everywhere, and where warming is forever, cooling is temporary. The missing heat hides everywhere outside of large population centers and big tax bases (and very very far from actual thermometers).
We haven’t had the appearance of the Big 6.6C “worst case” scenario for years. It’s like something from the 1990s.
The public surely can’t keep swallowing the line that we have to prepare for the heatwaves between ice-ages?
Tell me again what the Wind Turbines are for?
ADDENDUM: This study is similar to one a few weeks ago which, for very different reasons, forecast that the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) had just started a downturn which would cool the UK and Europe by 0.5C. It looks like quite a few scientists are waking up to the possibility that the natural cycles that drove temperatures on Earth for 4.5 billion years might still be in the drivers seat.
h/t GWPF
Abstract
Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.
REFERENCE
[1^] Ineson et al (2015) Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum, Nature Communications,Volume: 6, Article number: 7535 DOI: doi:10.1038/ncomms8535
I was a bit surprised about that announcement. It may be a way to cover all bases, particularly as the AMO seems to be turning negative which is something that happens weather or not solar activity diminishes to a Maunder level. One thing that seems to be missing however is any appreciation for history. The northern hemisphere dropped 0.6C but the central England temperature dropped more than double that. Consider also that the average global temperature dropped by nearly 0.8C from 1998 to 2000 during a particularly severe El nino – La nina cycle and it typically swings about 0.5C through most cycles. So between the sun, multi-decadanal ocean cycles and the regular ENSO cycles I suspect we are in for a wild ride, with or without the influence of CO2. That said, in an era when we can have fresh raspberries grown in South America in our grocery stores in the depth of northern hemisphere winter, the wild swings will be more annoying (higher prices) than catastrophic. To make it catastrophic, you’d have to have a more aggressive bio-fuels use policy. But who would be dumb enough to do that? Oh wait…
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I agree with the lack of understanding of history by the global warmists, particularly with no reference to past climate events as we know that both Roman and Medieval were warmer than currently and the Mini Ice age colder. But here our temperature records prior to 1910 have been discarded by the powers that be on the grounds of unreliability and have missed some of our hottest temperatures ever
including the late 1800’s and the Federation drought. Does a thermometer placed about eye height on the shady side of a gum tree or shed give a different reading than one in a Stevenson screen, remembering the accuracy of the mercury thermometers was only about half a degree Farenheit?
331
One thing that will become patently evident to all, if the predictions become even close and moreso if they are understated, is that people will realise how serious cooling is compared to warming. Life, especially the ability to grow crops, thrives in warm weather, but doesn’t in cold (to anywhere near the same extent). This will bring some interesting times.
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Twilight Of Abundance: why life in the 21st century will be nasty, brutish and short.
David Archibald
20
Chilling interesting, may easy turn into horrible and not interesting at all.
10
Given the recent bread, coffee, chocolate, Pope, etc excuses; I’m actually not surprised by this. They continue with the strategy of throwing crap against the wall, hoping anything sticks. And just in case they’re wrong, they throw this up. Gotta keep your bases covered and the taxpayer money flowing, you know!
When it comes to forecasting, one shouldn’t have too much faith in them beyond 24 hours. Giving them 5 days is just being nice. After that, laugh. Just laugh at their audacity for BS because no one is keeping them accountable for the press releases they push out.
…Because no one, despite supercomputers running simulations, satellites, weather balloons, and local sensors scattered around airports and selected parts of the country; aren’t able to predict with accuracy beyond 5 days…That’s from an honest meteorologist I talked to. Forecasting is surprisingly hard, as weather is unpredictable. He becomes really annoyed at the Climate Change nonsense and their excuses to justify their fear mongering. You can safely say that long range predictions are wrong. ie: “In 5, 10, 15, 20, 50, 100 years *insert end-of-the-world-natural-disaster* will happen!”
No…No it won’t. Despite the tone of Warmists, and how they act like they know everything about weather by saying “The science is settled!”; they don’t. They really don’t. As such, everything they proclaim will turn out wrong. That’s when you see the “dog ate my homework” tactic gets deployed…Climate Change isn’t about science. Its activism, politics, and money.
To help maintain share price of major wind turbine suppliers like the following…
* Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark)
* General Electric Power & Water (USA)
* Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica (Spain)
* Enercon (Germany)
* Siemens (Germany)
* Senvion SE (Germany)
* Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (China)
* Suzlon Energy (India)
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Sean,
Why were you surprised? Haven’t you heard? Global Warming ™ is the cause of Global Cooling ™. There’s a %97 consensus backing up that claim, so it must be right.
Anyone who’s found rejecting this official interpretation of ‘The Facts’ will be ostracised, (cf. Willie Soon), and fired from their job (cf. Murray Salby).
Or, if you prefer, “The hits just keep on comin’!”
Abe
170
The Green Faith has the world at about 500 mil-1billion population,a mini-iceage would do wonders if they can get a good hold of the food supply,and wasting precious food as fuel will go a long way to fix the population problem.
It worked remarkedly well for Stalin and Mayo.
I suppose this begs the question who is the most danger to us,Islam or the Green Faith,one wants us to all be Muslim the other wants us all to be dead?
120
TFH,
Two points.
1. The move to convince shareholders in the coal industry to divest is clearly aimed at wretching financial control of that industry. We know this is so because millions of these shares have already been divested but the price of these shares hasn’t dropped. Which means someone is buying them up as quickly as they’re being sold.
You should have included ‘control of the energy production’ in addition to ‘control of the food supply’.
2. The Green Faith is by far the more dangerous of the two. Depopulation to the degree you describe, and the progressives promote, would ‘take the wind’ out of the ISIS movement. They’d be mostly starved to death.
Abe
40
Unfortunately the four horsemen tend to ride together, and pestilence doesn’t respect international borders.
30
Whatever happens, this report allows the consensus to say ” we told you so”
The AMO which is solar driven, leads temperature across the entire northern hemisphere,
When the La nina follows next year or so, that’s when it gets interesting.
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Yup, they can truly say that they ‘predicted everything’: rain, no rain, heat, no heat, cold, no cold, snow, no snow…
210
I suppose these “two experiments” are actually computer models.
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Is there any other way to run “experiments”? Empirical research died with the Empire. Computer models are so much more Polit-ik-ally Korrect, and gender neutral.
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I would have said so much more corruptible.
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No suppose. They are. From the UK GCM models that falsely predict a tropical troposphere hotspot, that miss the pause, and have no regional ‘downscaling’ skill.
Oh, and only by such model ‘logic’ could a changing Sun only affect Eastern US and NW Europe. Last times I was in those places, the Sun also shone on western US, Japan, Singapore, and down under on Australia and Argentina.
This paper is transparent model stupidity. Can’t anyone in the media think anymore?
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The media are not meant to question or scrutinise what comes from the climatetariat! Zu befehl, Mein führer.Sad,but true.
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We are the Green Blob. Your biological and technological distinctiveness will be added to our own. Resistance is futile.
30
So 0.1 degree of cooling is nothing to be concerned about, but 0.01 degree (artistic license applied) of warming, is catastrophic and worthy of tens of thousands of column inches, and billions of taxpayer funds??
I sometimes wonder why I bother interacting with the rest of humanity.
350
I thinkt he great tragedy is the mess the Left has made of proper science. The left are like a flock of hungry ( aka rats with wings ) seagulls – they turn up, squark loudly, strip the food bare, cr*p all over everything, then take off to cover the next thing in guano.
Tell me I’m wrong…..
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You are not wrong. They do indeed do those things.
But the fundamental issue is that “the Left” subscribe to Marxist theory. In the Australian context, and probably in the “developed” world generally, the fundamental issue there is the abolition of private ownership/management of industry. They believe firmly in Central Planning of a Communist economy.
Nowhere has this worked. The result is what you describe. Yet still they pursue it.
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Central planning and co-operative venture can be highly beneficial, especially in the context of essential services and social outcomes.
The problem is the central enforcement and suppression if individuality that stifles innovation/human rights. You can’t force people to co-operate!
20
Sounds to me that the Popes prayers have been answered . Warmists will now say that we don’t have to do anything and that we are now safe for the time being . No need for windmills, solar panels etc.. Then again maybe they won’t. We now have to spend heaps of money just in case they are wrong..
110
Huh…
So… It’s better than we thought?
150
–
Yes. It’s that bad.
140
Phil Jones:
‘Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.’
Climatologists have so much to be worried about.
100
Another problem could arise when the general population entirely lose respect for all the MSM’s reported looming end of the world scenarios and get caught out when is actually true, sounds a bit like “The Boy That Cried Climate.” doesn’t it.
Obviously ‘end of the world’ is exaggerated but that’s how the average Jo/Jane will see it after years of flip flopping from all the ‘experts’ and when Nations and their economies are forced to change due to real climate events maybe then the lies and deceptions might just ease up a little bit.
140
There was an old man who used to walk up and down Portugal Street, outside the London School of Economics, with a sandwich-board that read, “The end of the world is coming, repent your sins”
One day he turned up, and his sign had been changed. It now read, “The end of the world has been cancelled, due to industrial action.” It seems that some of the Pol-Sci students had figured out that he was illiterate.
190
That was rather unkind of the students…..
50
Of course … they were Politicals!
40
Our society relies on an implicit trust to authority. Every day that passes, its being destroyed by activism. Credibility is being lost. And people just tune out. I highly suspect nothing will happen (regarding the end-of-the-world fear mongering), and people just keep on living.
…Kind of like a mother responding to their over-excited child: “That’s nice dear.”
120
Activism is a curse on society’s independence, gone is the act of volunteering or donating without a fuss, now the grandstanding and collectivism is sickening with people actually believing they’re making a great contribution for causes that they have no power to resolve or simply aren’t real problems at all.
A good start for fixing things would be to actually behave like your in a democratic/capitalist society, hold your elected representatives to account and if they don’t comply vote in ones that will, a healthy economy with good independent enterprise will foster better behavior with less risk of criminal actions, at the moment Australia is seeing crime rising not just from a poor economy but generations that have been ruined with the welfare state mentality, we essentially have adults acting out because their comfy little worlds have been reduced to the point of actually having to find a job, with the only qualification as a professional bludger they don’t make an attractive prospect for potential employers.
40
“warming is forever” <- hahaha love that line 🙂
80
Frost prevention?
150
Yep!
In horticulture, ie vegetable growing and orchids thats what wind turbines driven by the grid power or ground level diesel engines are used for. They prevent the stratification of near and on ground level air-masses and maintain a mixed, moving, non stratified and therefore warmer and above freezing near ground airmass which prevents what can be severe frost damage to those horticultural products.
Thats about the upper limit of the modern wind turbines usefulness and they are privately funded by the horticultural growers as well.
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Bird removal?
80
Endangered species factory?
50
It’s called “Two bob each way”
90
Surely the article is a hoax.
Here’s how you can tell. There is no call for an increase in taxes or collective action at great expense to prevent the coming cooling. There is no suggestion of reducing personal freedoms so that the impact of the cooling is reduced.
Surely the purpose of these kinds of pronouncements is to scare people so that they will empty their wallets into the hands of a bureaucrat so a new government department can be established.
110
Apparently no one in the UK Met Office can predict massive “natural variability” which is overwhelming Global Warming predictions because it is much bigger and creates the unfortunate illusion of total incompetence.
The public should be aware that weather models are not meant to be taken literally because they are deliberately free from natural effects such as solar variability. A really good theory should not be troubled by reality. In Australia Tim Flannery is convinced that the Australian wide drought is not over, that we are experiencing either a temporary wet period between two droughts or in the middle of a much longer drought. Computers are never wrong.
So none of the models are as utterly wrong as they would seem at first glance. Underneath the snow and ice, man made CO2 driven Global Climate Warming is alive and well. Any cooling is just a local illusion.
Hopefully Paris alone will have a freezing December as 30,000 global warming bureaucrats arrive by air to stay in warm hotels discuss the evils of flying and ways to keep the ice off the windmills.
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Experimental psychology has a concept called just-noticeable difference (JND). You can look it up.
A 0.1 C° temperature drop will not be sufficient to have me feel safe at a frost fair on a frozen river.
82
Naw John, that’s a “global average” drop. At certain locations (like the ones that get cold already) it must be noticeable and more than 0.1 C° .
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>”Ineson et al.”
A modelling exercise (“experiment”) like this has already been done by Jones, Lockwood and Stott (2012).
It is the IPCC’s (entire) contra-solar case cited in AR5 Chapter 9, Radiative Forcing:
‘What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?’
Gareth S. Jones, Mike Lockwood, and Peter A. Stott (2012)
http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011JD017013.pdf
Apparently, if you reduce energy input to a system, the energy output keeps rising.
If you look at the models vs observations in Figure 5, the models were already wrong by 2010. The rest is baloney.
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Also note that Peter Stott is a Lead Coordinating author of AR5 Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional, and Gareth Jones and Mike Lockwood are contributing authors.
So these guys discount solar forcing in two chapters – past (10) and future (9).
Of course the sun and the climate may have something else to say on the matter in the future.
110
It’s OK if you don’t read past the first paragraph of the introduction!
“The past few decades have been characterized by a period of relatively high solar activity. However, the recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end1. Using past variations of solar activity measured by cosmogenic isotope abundance changes, analogue forecasts for possible future solar output have been calculated. An 8% chance of a return to Maunder Minimum-like conditions within the next 40 years was estimated in 2010 (ref. 2). The decline in solar activity has continued, to the time of writing, and is faster than any other such decline in the 9,300 years covered by the cosmogenic isotope data1. If this recent rate of decline is added to the analysis, the 8% probability estimate is now raised to between 15 and 20%.”
90
The BBC is emphatic: ‘A new scientific study concludes that changes in the Sun’s output cannot be causing modern-day climate change.
‘It shows that for the last 20 years, the Sun’s output has declined, yet temperatures on Earth have risen.’
– See more at: http://www.thegwpf.com/mike-lockwood-sun-has-no-influence-on-climate-except-when-it-does/#sthash.X57hcjJy.dpuf
So the plateau in temperatures over the past 18 years isn’t happening, but if it was it would be caused by something other than the sun. They lie like pigs in mud.
182
The BBC is clealry deluded.
Temps have stayed pretty much stable.
Do not look at the man behind the screen…..
Bring on the “Climate Nuremberg trials”….
70
I dunno. They dunno. Everybody dunno. But we’ll always have Paris.
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I turned off our central heating today – a few hours without thinking I put on my coat. That’s what it’s like in Scotland I can’t remember anything like that before. The local paper are talking about people skiing on Ben Nevis. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of that this late.
If it doesn’t improve within the month and we start seeing a bit of real summer I will be seriously considering the possibility we are seeing some kind of long term change.
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Mike Haseler (Scottish Sceptic),
A few days ago I had a conversation with one of my neighbors. We don’t really get a chance to talk that often so this was the first time we ever discussed Global Warming ™. After about half an hour, we finished our discussion.
And he said, “You know, after hearing both sides of the story, I can see how the whole thing is just a scam.
Then, suddenly, he put a smile on his face. “I’m really glad we had this conversation because, lately, I was beginning to think that maybe I’m starting to get old”
So I asked him, “Why is that?”
To which he replied, “For the last couple of years, I’ve had to put on a light sweater in the early morning hours when I’m out doing my rounds. I’ve been doing this job for years and I never had to wear a sweater in the Summer!”
He’s only 29 years old.
Abe
122
Now what was it they used to say about One Swallow? Can’t have showed yet.
60
I can only guess at the motivation. As a political document, it provides a convenient explanation for the “Pause” to assist in deferring questions from those in the media who might be starting to wonder and are tempted to ask questions about the stagnation in global temperature rise. With less than 6 months to go, every document from the CO2 supporters appears to be directed towards growing an enormous surge in public concern and outright fear for the future culminating in a wave of alarmism for the Paris conference. With public panic manifested, it seems the intent is to parade the progressives into Paris with tangible solutions to “save the world”. This “research” is nothing more than support for a manipulative political agenda. It’s an effort to control the message and neutralize any skeptical discussion from opponents to political reform.
As a whole, it indicates to me that the progressives for political reform are desperate to achieve some sort of results at Paris. The entire global warming agenda is in dire straits and Paris is seen as a “Put up or shut up” moment in the quest for political reform based on the argument of CO2. I think the Paris conference is being viewed as a potential pivotal moment. If little is achieved, the global warmers won’t get the chance again. Public attention will go elsewhere and growing skepticism of CO2 will reach a tipping point that assigns CO2 alarmism to the garbage bin for the next 50 years.
102
“The missing heat hides everywhere outside of large population centers and big tax bases (and very very far from actual thermometers).”
Jo you overlooked *and in the inventive minds of creative accountants*.
130
I wonder if wind turbines in the UK use anti-freeze so that they can still generate electricity when the solar panels are covered in snow.
I was directed to this site recently, it purports to show how natural factors (sun, volcanoes etc) have little influence on temperature rises and that all of the increase we have seen is as a result of mankind’s activity. I am not sure whether they thought this through as it destroys the warmist arguments explaining away previous warm periods.
80
One important climate control factor they forgot to show is the cloud cover particularly over the tropics where solar radiation is strongest.
50
William @ # 22
Wind turbines don’t use antifreeze but they do draw anywhere from 8% to 13% of their equivalent power generation output back from the grid when they are idle and not generating power or enough power for their own usage themselves.
That grid power is an absolute necessity to run the electronics, to run the servo motors for the blades and the direction control, to heat and keep the gearbox oil at the correct temperatures and the nacelle and in cold climates to heat the blade leading edges to prevent aerodynamic destroying blade icing plus throwing ice spears up to a kilometre or more distance and to run the hazard lights.
All of which can take that the grid power useage over a period to the equivalent of between 8% and 13% of their actual generated output that they put into the grid.
It seems that the turbine scammers are very careful in not admitting this grid power usage because it is neither metered or payed for.
Its free power at our expense and effectively cuts the total of turbine power generation output by the amounts they surreptitiously draw back from the grid when the turbines are idle , an estimated as above, between 8% and 13% of a turbine’s actual KWhrs output.
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Thanks Rom, I was being a little flippant regarding the anti-freeze and I had read of the Turbine’s reliance on the grid – you are right, it is something that their supporters do keep very quiet!
What amuses me also is that turbine lovers seem to overlook the fact that these great green machines rely on iron ore and coal mining, on coal power stations, rare earth mineral mining and oil (to name a few of the components) to manufacture a turbine. I think some of them believe the gaia fairy waves her magic wand over a hill and instantly, turbines are created from pixie dust!
60
A Maunder type phase of the sun,
Could put climate-change hype on the run,
When predictions would crumble,
And temperatures tumble,
As a Mini Ice Age had begun.
191
“What to do? Keep sending those cheques for the carbon reduction, and scratch the snow off the solar panel, right?”
. . .
Let’s stop brushing off snow on panels problem
What ever you do, don’t mention goose poop.
(did I mention that goose poop, yes, goose poop, has become a significant sun blocking issue on our system?).
Now look watch done. Ya mentioned goose poop.
80
Amusing, BUT…. in our Canadian climate there is no chance that he’s getting the output he claims from PV units in winter. It is just not physically possible in our northern regions- regardless of snow or goose poop. Thanks for pointing it out.
30
Well, the shortest day of the year was only a few days back and it was very cold early on before the Sun came up.
No doubt in December I will be a little too hot.
Examining the difference between these two events is the One and Only experiment needed to show that the Sun changes our living environment.
I fear what would happen if just for one day, the Sun did not rise.
Many would freeze to death and be unable to get to work to earn the money to pay the taxes that keep this CAGW farce going.
KK
91
The most interesting aspect of the UK Met Office study is they are predicting a cooling influence of about 0.5 C from weakening solar activity in the next 50 years or so (see the isotherm anomaly maps in the WUWT post here). On the balance I think this is an under-estimate, however it is notable since the UK Met Office has always been an extremely activist CAGW proponent.
What they don’t say is if weaker solar activity can cause 0.5 C of cooling in the drop off from the Grand Solar Maximum then the rise to the Grand Solar Maximum in 2005 would have seen a rise in solar driven temperature of similar amount.
At the same time the very same UK Met Office back in 2012 ran their model with the PDO included – and found the cooling PDO caused the ‘pause’. But again they didn’t point out the obvious, which is if the 30 year cooling phase of the PDO could completely offset the putative warming by CO2 then it would have also contributed to the temperature rise in the previous 30 years ie 1970-2000.
If solar activity caused 0.5 C or more of warming up to 2005 and the 60 year cycle caused about another 0.3 C during 1906-2005, which is the IPCC “century”, then it leaves very little for CO2 to have caused.
The people in the UK Met Office are not fools, so they must know this.
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Maybe not fools Bruce but TOOLS and not very sharp at that.
82
Of course they know it. They have always known it.
However when the winters are freezing and the summers barely warm, bleating about rapid runaway global warming just sounds stupid and no one believes you even when you say you are a scientist and infallible.
So this is a rear guard action to explain that the alleged ‘pause’ has now turned into a full blown ‘cooling period’ without admitting they were wrong all along.
What is significantly missing is the advice for everyone to start burning coal as fast as they can, because they do not believe it causes warming and never did.
122
That is a common retort from the alarmists when the MWP, Viking Greenland settlement, Roman, Minoan, Atlantic (bowdlerised by Connelly et al.) are given as examples of known historical periods at least as warm as now.
During the last glacial maximum ~20,000BC most of Siberia and Alaska was ice-free at the same time as Chicago was under one kilometre thick ice.
Global cooling like global warming will not be global for example the current warmish cycle is mostly confined to the Northern Hemisphere.
72
Dear little chook – they’re to prop up the sky so it doesn’t fall on us.
150
Sigh!
Here we go again!
Once upon a time in a purported science not far away it was all just CO2, that nefarious and evil “carbon” of the heavily promoted Sc-Fi fiction series “Tales from Climate Science”.
Now we are seeing a new version of that series of “Tales from Climate Science” where whatever it is we are supposed to believe in is now all due to that newly identified nasty UV which in polite scientific circles is known as solar “Ultra Violet” radiation.
Nothing has changed.
Climate science and its practitioners appear to be still locked into their extraordinarily and intellectually limited mental straight jacket where they seemingly cannot comprehend that there is more than just one factor at a time influencing and controlling the climate of this planet.
A high percentage of them appear completely unable to comprehend at all that there is a vast assortment of still mostly unknown natural influences and factors that influence and control and change our global climate on a minute by minute, day by day, decade by decade, aeon by aeon basis and will continue to do so as long as the Earth exists.
But then they do claim to be Climate Scientists don’t they?
[ sarc/]
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I am confused.
Firstly we are told that the sun is not a major player in climate & that its effects are minimal in the models.
Now we are told that we are headed for a maunder type minimum but it will not cancel out the effects of global warming.
They can’t have it both ways, either they have modelled solar effects and included it in their models or they have only included minimal effects in the models. How can they know that a maunder type minimum will not cancel out global warming if they have not included all the solar effects in the model in the first place? Confusing.
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I can sympathise with your confusion but you should not expect these clowns to engage in reason and logic, it’s not fair. Just ask them.
62
without the panic, we wouldn’t have:
26 June: SMH: Peter Hannam: Renewable Energy Target deal clears way for $450 million wind farm investment
A $450 million deal to build Australia’s third-largest wind farm marks the “first green shoots” of a revival in the clean energy industry after this week’s passage in the Senate of a reduced renewable energy target (RET).
The 240-megawatt Ararat Wind Farm in south-western Victoria will now proceed with financing from developer Renewable Energy Systems (RES), turbine-maker General Electric and two other backers…
The Ararat project, which will supply enough electricity to power 123,000 households, is almost twice the size of the entire investment in large-scale clean energy in Australia last year after new spending all but froze.
Geoff Culbert, GE’s president and CEO for Australia, predicted as much as 6000 megawatts of new ***capacity – or about 25 times the size of the Ararat project – would be needed to meet even the reduced 2020 target…
***Swiss-based Partners Group will own 40 per cent of the venture, with Canadian pension fund OPTrust holding 30 per cent stake, GE 25 per cent and RES 5 per cent.
“If we can replicate that in some form in other sites, we would very much like to help build a number of these assets over the next few years,” Stan Kolenc, managing director of OPTrust, said…
“Local Liberal MP Dan Tehan should be ashamed it took his government so long to come to an agreeable position, effectively holding up the creation of nearly 300 jobs in his own electorate,” he said.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/renewable-energy-target-ret-deal-clears-way-for-450-million-wind-farm-investment-20150625-ghx4jw.html
41
The panic of renewables and pink batts etc in review
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/6/25/government-admits-benefits-of-green-policy-less-than-cost.html
50
Wind Turbines are the modern equivalent of Totem Poles.
111
This has been put out for one reason alone – to keep the CO2/warming relationship alive and well whatever happens. If warmists have already said it could get colder no one can call them out if it doesn’t get warmer. In one fell swoop any hope for a return to sanity any time soon has been pushed back decades!
30
“How do we panic about warming during a maunder-type freeze?”
Any way you can, as long as you panic.
(I must say, I am not looking forward to frost fairs on the Brisbane River.)
60
Its only a mini ice age, so there is no need to be alarmed. Unless of course the downturn is associated with a 1470 year cycle, then all bets are off.
60
Wonder if the Russians know something the UKMet doesn’t?
http://thermalscience.vinca.rs/online-first/1524
Direct link to full paper;
http://thermalscience.vinca.rs/pdfs/papers-2015/TSCI140902018A.pdf
50
I’m pretty sure Dr Abdussamatov is a big reason why the Russians ignore the IPCC, same as the Indians do. Their guy is Prof Udipi Rao, who is a GCR astrophysicist and past head of their space program. His paper shows that solar derived warming contributed nearly half of the temperature rise during the 20thC.
Of course the warmists ignore Russia and India since their propaganda targets are the western useful idiots.
My model suggests Dr Abdussamatov may be a bit pessimistic, but otherwise on the money.
100
The Laki eruption in 1783 was a trigger for a Frost Fair on the Thames around the time Arthur Phillip was settling into Port Jackson.
Not sure if its a coincidence, but when ever we have a weak sun and a large volcanic eruption the temperature falls.
Its possible to see this in the start of the LIA, Europe experiences cool/wet conditions from 1200 AD and by 1250 there are large icebergs cluttering the north sea. Then in 1275 there is another large volcanic eruption, followed by a few more over the next couple of decades.
The AD 1300 Event in the Pacific was a disaster and I’m not convinced a quiet sun was the cause.
20
so there! lol.
24 June: Bloomberg: Eric Roston: What’s Really Warming the World?
Scroll down to see show how much different factors, both natural and industrial, contribute to global warming, based on findings from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies…
Is It the Sun?
The sun’s temperature varies over decades and centuries. These changes have had little effect on the Earth’s overall climate…
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
11
“farmers call” or “two farmers call” or “a few farmers call”?
hard to know as Aston doesn’t see fit to link to the Open Letter and i can’t find it in a quick search online.
but it definitely isn’t “all farmers” and no doubt it isn’t “most farmers” or even “many farmers”, or Aston would have linked to it:
25 June: SMH: Heath Aston: Farmers call on Liberals to snuff out internal push by climate sceptic conservatives
Farmers are circulating an open letter calling on the Liberal Party to kill off an internal push to derail Australia making meaningful commitments at the upcoming Paris climate talks.
The letter, which describes farmers as being “on the front line of rising temperatures and more extreme weather”, urges the Liberals to resoundingly defeat a climate sceptic motion to be debated at its federal council meeting on Saturday…
Current NSW farmer of the year Derek Blomfield is one who has put his name to the letter, saying the science was already in on climate change.
“As a farmer, I find it really disappointing that this is coming from farmers, especially those in WA who are in line for the worst effects of climate change. I can’t make sense of their actions,” he said.
“I’m not a scientist but I’m pretty sure Brian Mayfield [chairman of the Liberal Party committee pushing the motion] isn’t a scientist either. How many times do we have to go back to the science? Is it until they get the result they want?
“Extreme weather events are a real issue for us in the farming community and we want a strong deal in Paris.”…
The open letter calls for Australia to adopt post-2020 targets that will cut carbon emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2025, and at least 60 per cent by 2030 over 2000 pollution levels, in line with recommendations of the scientific community…
Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, who was part of the WA dissenters in 2009, declined to criticise the motion on Thursday. “Let’s see what is decided after the discussion’s been had,” he said…
***Gerry Leach, a member of the National Farmers’ Federation resource management committee, said there was a divergence of views on climate change in the farming sector.
The NFF’s position is that science should be used to mitigate emissions intensity while increasing food production, he said.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/farmers-call-on-liberals-to-snuff-out-internal-push-by-climate-sceptic-conservatives-20150625-ghxp5s.html
21
I have been commenting over there Pat and receiving the expected indignation from the collective, it is full of the usual suspects who believe everything Fairfax spoonfeeds them.
40
24 June: UK Farmers Weekly: Olivia Coopr: Poultry farmer forced to take down £160,000 wind turbines
A Cornish poultry farmer could face having to sell his farm after planning permission for two wind turbines was overturned by the Planning Inspectorate.
Simon Andrews and his wife Debbie rear organic turkeys, geese and Longhorn cattle at South Torfrey Farm, Fowey, Cornwall, and erected two 20kW wind turbines after obtaining planning permission on appeal in 2013.
However, a nearby resident objected against the decision, taking the case to the High Court, which subsequently overturned the approval…
“In their first year the turbines generated about 100,000 units of electricity, which is worth about £24,000,” said Mr Andrews.
“At 100 acres we are only a small farm, so we needed to diversify. If I have to take the turbines down the business just won’t be able to take it, and we’d have to sell up.”
The Planning Inspectorate said the benefits of the turbines were outweighed by the damaging visual impact on the Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty and designated heritage assets, including a Grade I listed church and Grade II listed house owned by the objecting resident…
http://www.fwi.co.uk/poultry/poultry-farmer-forced-to-take-down-160-000-wind-turbines.htm
51
The Met Office, good guessers we’re not.
We still say its bound to get hot.
But if perhaps it gets cold,
don’t say you weren’t told.
We just hate to be put on the spot.
81
So a Maunder-type cooling would only be a local effect……
Alaska’s Glacier Bay, separated from the UK Met Office by an ocean and a continent, was completely frozen during the mid-1700’s, filled with glaciers to the Pacific Ocean. In the late 1700’s the glaciers began shrinking, retreating 50 miles in little more than a century. Mankind’s activities could not have caused the freezing and the thawing, but the bay’s changes correlated with solar activity.
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/03/19/glacier-bay-ice-retreated-50-miles-between-1780-and-1892/
61
O/t but related to the thread earlier in the week. another great one from Real Science. So simple .
” According to fraudulent GISS temperatures, Earth warmed 0.5C from 1910 to 1940, when CO2 rose 10 PPM. Since then, temperatures rose another 0.5C, with an increase of 80 PPM
So we can calculate 1910-1940 CO2 sensitivity as 0.5C/10 PPM = 0.05C/PPM
Post 1940 sensitivity is 0.5C/80 PPM = 0.00625C/PPM
In other words, their imaginary “CO2 sensitivity” has dropped by a factor of eight since 1940.”
Absolutely brilliant !!
http://realclimatescience.com/
62
manufacturers “seem unconcerned”. not surprised:
18 June: InfoSecurity Mag: Wind Turbines Open to Hijacking
The energy grid is once again found to be vulnerable, with a serious flaw in the Nova-Wind Turbine human-machine (HMI) interface, which would allow remote code execution…
***ICS-CERT said that the manufacturer, RLE, seems unconcerned with the fact that its windmills are wide-open to attackers, who could shut off the power that they generate entirely…
“ICS-CERT has attempted on multiple occasions to contact the vendor regarding this serious flaw and have according to our vulnerability disclosure policy now produced this advisory. Insecure credential vulnerabilities create a serious risk to asset owners. ICS-CERT strongly recommends ensuring that the impacted product is not connected to the internet or any network as this vulnerability is remotely exploitable,” the advisory says…
The news comes just a week after a cross-site request forgery vulnerability was found to affect small wind turbines manufactured by a company called XZERES…
http://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/wind-turbines-open-to-hijacking/
23 June: TimesHerald: Nicole Hayden: Moore Township wind farm plans halted
Residents in Moore Township have halted a proposed project to develop a wind farm in Sanilac County.
In February, it was announced that Chicago-based company, Invenergy, would be placing wind turbines on 25,000 acres of private land in Argyle, Lamotte, Moore and Wheatland townships…
Following the ordinance approval, Raymond Ellis II, of Snover, submitted a petition June 16 asking for a referendum of the ordinance, meaning that the ordinance is frozen until township residents vote on it in November’s general election.
Greg Dorman, Moore Township supervisor, said if residents vote down the ordinance than the township board will have to re-write it…
The wind turbine development allows tax capture for the participating townships, as well as incentives for private land owners that agree to allow Invenergy to build a turbine on their land.
While the referendum has halted the ordinance completely, Dorman said specifically the petitioners felt that the ordinance should have required turbines to be built further away from non-participating property lines…
http://www.thetimesherald.com/story/news/local/2015/06/23/moore-township-wind-farm-plans-halted/29175683/
21
Another regional effect – or maybe not
http://realclimatescience.com/2015/06/climate-sensitivity-must-be-plummeting/
10
Solar influences causing a minuscule cooling trend, dwarfed by AGW. One now wonders how proponents of implausible solar warming predictions are going to disregard this evidence. Is a new statistical fudge to appear soon?
220
‘…a new statistical fudge to appear soon.’
That’s funny coming from your lot.
Talking of which, this par is from an Ozferic post at the Australian Independent Media Network, much amusement.
‘We need urgency; we need the seriousness. There’s a fine line between panic-inducing immediacy and threat, and inertia-generating fatalism. World War II, in its size and ferocity and its immediacy, was enough to jolt the western world into action. We will see, over the next decade, increasingly dire climate outcomes. At some point, public attitudes and governmental policies will catch up with the exigencies of climate reality.’
62
SF – A 1% change in the output of the Sun is nearly 14 W/m^2. Vastly more than anything the climateers have invoked for CO2.
Given the primary reason for solar influence on terrestrial temperature is on cloud cover, you can see why a tiny 1% relative error might be missed.
The amazing thing is the UK Met Office under Slingo has felt the need to volunteer this, given it undermines their whole message. There must be some internal ructions going on between the real scientists and the practitioners of scientism like you.
Btw I hope you in Gosford (IIRC) got through the April storm OK. Bad here in Newcastle, although I missed the worst. Biggest for a hundred years. The Pasha Bulka storm dropped a tree on my roof, fortunately without much damage, although I had to get help from the SES get it off.
60
Bruce a couple of years ago we had a discussion on whether the LIA was a D-O Event and from memory you said it wasn’t.
Are you still of the same opinion?
30
El Gordo – the previous Bond Event was at the time of the fall of the Western Roman Empire around 400-600 AD. That is listed at the link as Bond Event 1. If you assume it is 1470ish years between them that would indicate the LIA wasn’t one, although the wiki has it listed. The Maunder minimum was pretty deep but the Dalton was significant too. And the Spörer. Which suggests they are a shorter cycle event (eg de Vries? – see the Table in this section).
So are we in for a civilizational collapse level event like BE 1, BE 2 or BE 3? I have no idea. The UK Met office paper suggests the solar cycle is going to shut down for a long time, perhaps even more than the Maunder.
On the other hand we have a lot of tools available now that we didn’t have in Roman times. Its easy to grow stuff indoors if you have the energy (and hydroponic supplies in newsworthy examples 🙂 ). I also think geoengineering is not silly: it would be quite easy to control albedo by spreading black material – magnetite or coal waste fines – over the ice cap areas of Canada and Russia. It doesn’t take much to flip from freezing feedback to melting, as we see in the Greenland data. The dips of the Bond Events and minimums is probably a feedback effect.
On the third hand we ourselves won’t be around to worry about it anyway, since its unlikely anything significant will happen for at least 50 years.
70
Thanks Bruce.
We have to be careful with the Dalton because the Tambora eruption 200 years ago would have dropped temperatures by at least 1.0 C for a couple of years.
With geo-engineering we might be smarter smashing a big hole in the Isthmus joining the Americas. This was how the problem began, with a changing of ocean currents.
20
Unfortunatley, following one of Cussler’s fictional scenarios won’t cut it. Opening the Panama Isthmus to any “usefull” degree would require the use of copius amounts of nuclear explosives which will create far worse problems; not to mention still won’t alter the deep ocean currents to any appreciable degree. And if we did…. the resulting sever cooling of the European coast would result in mass deaths….all to solve a fictional “problem”.
00
Found this gem, a description of the Central West four months after the Tambora eruption. Correlation doesn’t mean causation.
‘When Rowland Hassall, the superintendent of Government stock, went to Bathurst early in August 1815 he met William Lawson returning after leaving his herd in “one corner of the plains, close to Queen Charlotte’s Vale.”
‘Hassall reported that Lawson was “wet, cold and starved” and gave a dreadful account of the season and country, saying that snow lay two inches deep and that the road was so boggy as to be almost impassable. Never in all his life had he gone through such labour, hardship, and fatigue; he had lost several cattle from the frost and the intense cold.
‘Lawson was evidently disillusioned by the Bathurst district’s cool temperate climate, but not so Hassall, who said that when he reached Bathurst he found to his delight the whole country snow-covered. “It was like a winter’s day in the month of January in England,” he wrote.’
Bernard Greaves
——–
10
Climate disruption creates mass migration, possibly caused by extraterrestrial debris or volcanic eruption.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%E2%80%93536
Finding a signal amongst the noise is not going to be easy.
10
sillyfilly,
Absolutely agree with your consensus on the existence of the miniscule solar influenced cooling trend.
The miniscule -.005C cooling trend per year will cancel out completely the recent ‘hottest evvvaaaaa’ +.005C warming trend per year.
There’s your pause right there, no hidden heat explanation required.
Thanks sf, your a real peach.
101
One sure prediction about UK climate change.
People are just not going to know what honest science is anymore.
101
This one is the topic that just keeps on giving. Now I know windmill blade tips are not quite supersonic but, hey, its close enough for climate science.
A windmill is kind of iconic,
A paean to unreason and panic,
But if one you live near,
You have reason to fear,
The range of an icicle, supersonic.
41
OT, but related…
I saw a report on the goggle box about whether race horses were now galloping as fast as they will ever be able to. It’s not a subject in which I take a huge interest, so I wasn’t paying much attention, but I heard that scientists said this, whereas other scientists said that and some scientists said something else, altogether.
So, no consensus there, except on the claim that (exact words) “More research is needed.“. I’m pretty sure that a not too distant edition of Roget’s Thesaurus will list “research” as a synonym for “money”.
50
“…
The missing heat hides everywhere outside of large population centers and big tax bases (and very very far from actual thermometers).
…”
I thought I found some of that “hidden heat” the other day , but it turned out only to be a speech by a local politician.
40
What happened to the posters from differing views that used to frequent joannenova.com.au? It seems like they have died off or come to their senses over the past 12 months.
Once upon a time on this site, there were some interesting and intelligent points of differing views from posters that would make an appearance every so often, and with a fraction of the endemic smear that we associate with the left.
The most recent ‘almost’ was a guy who prided himself on ‘taking down deniers’ or something with his alleged intelligence, yet left with his tail between his ears after being schooled on basic statistics, something he thought he was a God of, yet hasn’t been back to cast judgement ever since.
Not that I miss them, but the intelligent ones of old gave perspective to the site. I am of course not referring to the blind gullible eco celebrities. They are the obvious idiots. Nor am I referring to poison pen brigade of low level eco warriors types that drop stupidity like unguided dumb bombs from the Climate B52 (its solar powered, so it spends most of its time grounded anyway). Nor that recalcitrant rabbit-bandicoot fool.
What happened to the challengers?
40
You call them thermometers, I call them temperature repellents.
20
Our current beneficial, warm Holocene interglacial has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000 years. The congenial climate of the Holocene spans from mankind’s earliest farming to the scientific and technological advances of the last 100 years.
Just a glance at the temperature and climate history of the past 50,000 years should be enough to make any thinking person reject the postulate of Catastrophic Man-made Global warming.
Judging from the usual lengths of past interglacial periods, after some 10,000 – 11,000 years the Holocene epoch could well be drawing to its close. A climate reversion to full, encroaching, glaciation is therefore foreseeable, if not overdue, in this century, the next century, or this millennium.
Looking at climate change from a century by century or on a millennial perspective and using Ice core data but reducing it to century and millennial averages the overall millennial difference during the Holocene since ~8000BC has in total been a cooling of ~-1.8°C.
The early Holocene encompassing the “Climate Optimum” of ~ 7000BC and continuing for about 7000 years has been relatively constant with a temperature loss of only about -0.05 degC per millennium: however since 1000BC up to the present day the temperature drop was at about 10 times that rate at ~0.5degC / millennium, leaving the last millennium 1000AD – 2000AD as being the coldest of the Holocene overall. So the bulk (~80%) of the Holocene temperature loss ~-1.5°C has been in the last 3 millennia since 1000BC.
So, when considering the scale of temperature changes that alarmists anticipate because of Man-made Global Warming and their view of the disastrous effects of additional Man-made Carbon Dioxide emissions, the much vaunted and much feared “fatal” tipping point of +2°C would only bring Global temperatures back to the level of the very congenial climate of “the Roman warm period”. If it were possible to reach the “potentially horrendous” level of +6°C postulated by Warmists, by the inclusion of dubious but major positive feedbacks from additional water vapor in the atmosphere, that extreme level would still only bring temperatures to about the level of the previous Eemian maximum.
Current modern warming does not even bring temperatures back to those of the Medieval warm period.
Looked at from the point of view of the most recent 3 millennia which have experienced accelerated cooling, a continued natural climate change towards a colder climate would now seem more, rather than less, likely.
50
It’s a good job the science has been settled for years.
10
Science is but in it’s infancy, just been reading about some people slowing down the speed of light, then later stopping it. They are now working on incripting it and using it as a basis for computers of incredible power. Some real science happening.
20
The British MET office, it’s reputation now tainted to such a degree that it is difficult to accept (as truthful) anything they report. The contradiction upon contradiction of weather and/or Climate information that is being reported is just bizarre.
One has to ask the question: have the British themselves lost their ability to discern the truth and now lack basic common sense, are they totally reliant on the State to do their thinking for them ?
It seems that many of them have been herded into believing in CAGW but now that this is being shown to be just ridiculous, the MET office create an “out” by reporting that OBTW an ice age may be approaching aswell.
go figure !! 😮
perhaps the statistic that 25% of British people do not believe the moon landings ever happened, reveals some underlying cultural state of mind ?
10
I note a similar lack of common sense among US citizens. It seems to be associated with being a so-called liberal, which is today less descriptive of open-minded thinking and more descriptive of no thinking whatsoever. I think the common factor may be magical thinking, belief that wishing makes it so. This could account for steadfast belief in woo-woo science and Keynesian economics.
00
Having anticipated such a panic, I have Panic Buttons for sale. They’re guaranteed to initiate all the confusion and worthless activity associated with panic once pushed. I have a special price for readers of this blog, only $99.98 USD (full price would be $399.98). They’re well worth their price folks. So get ’em while you can.
Maybe we can all panic together and get it over with.
CAUTION: If possible, avoid pushing them while driving or operating other dangerous machinery. Use while lying flat in bed is ideal.
20
QUESTION: How can the Earth both fry and freeze at the same time? Have they learned how to burn their thermometers at both ends now?
That’s probably a dumb question but it really just asks itself.
20
You can also find them at: http://www.thinkgeek.com/product/15a5/?pfm=Search&t=big%20red%20button
but, for those who truly believe in catastrphic sea level rises, can I suggest: http://www.thinkgeek.com/product/imip/?pfm=tools-outdoor-survival_featured_imip_2
00
“How do we panic about warming during a maunder-type freeze?”
The answer is, we don’t. They are giving odds of a Maunder Minimum by 2050 at 15-20%. One out of 5. And it will perhaps “mean the difference between RCP6.0 and RCP4.5 projections for this region”.
Against the backdrop of Global Warming expected between now and 2050 – not much. Any drop will be relative.
Mike Lockwood has worked on this stuff before, I have read some of his other studies. The changes come about via feedback caused by small changes in the sun’s output.
01
In the states, they’re for collecting subsidies. In http://dailycaller.com/2014/05/06/warren-buffett-i-build-wind-turbines-to-lower-my-corporate-taxes/ :
30
I always thought the word “newspapers” was plural instead of just referring to one Murdoch owned source.
[Timmy! you’re letting your conspiracy thinking get way ahead.] ED
01
[…] that if the Sun can bring future cold, it might have had a role in past warmth, eh? ….Lees verder hier.In het licht van deze nieuwe inzichten is het de vraag hoe men er in zal slagen om de bevolking in […]
00
How to walk back the claims of catastrophic warming without admitting error? Discover new and unexpected processes which cancel the warming.
Somewhat related: Fred Singer has been talking about preparation for global cooling:
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/07/protecting_humanity_from_ice_ages.html
00
It should be noted here (if it hasn’t been already) that, whereas TSI doesn’t vary much (except for annual orbital rise and fall), UV changes quite significantly, as does the concomitant thickness and temperature of the ionosphere. I believe that there are secondary effects, such as a rise in the blackbody temperature of the sky, that can affect climate. It’s true that the ionosphere is very tenuous, but it’s thick enough that a photon can’t pass through it unimpeded.
00