The hot desert border of Western and South Australia
Lance Pidgeon has drawn my attention to the mysteriously detailed weather maps of the Australian BOM, with their mass of contradictions. The intricate squiggles of air temperature profiles suggests an awesome array of data — especially remarkable in places like “Cook”, which is a railway station with a population of four. Eucla, the megopolis in the map, has a population of 368. The shared border in the map (right) is 674km long top to bottom.
Thankfully, after 80 years of modern technology, the weather at Eucla and in the Great Victorian Desert is much more bearable than anyone would have expected. The BOM ACORN data set works better than airconditioning. In places near Eucla, where old newspapers record 43C, the BOM tells us the highest maximum that month was “under 27C”. Far to the north of there, the highest maximum stayed under 36C, but the average for that same whole month was above 36C. Go figure. It’s a new kind of maths… [or maybe the miracle of reverse cycle a/c?]
There are a half million square kilometers in this map here and almost no thermometers, but plenty of lizards. It is so empty that every railway station and even a single house will earn a “dot” and a label. The point where WA meets SA and the NT is so remote that more people have been to the South Pole. Despite that, the BOM can draw maps of daily air temperature variation separating sand dunes and salt lakes where no man probably walked in a whole year. Marvelous what computers and assumptions can do.
Jokes aside. The state of the BOM database is not so funny.
Jo
Time for a game of Spot the Contradiction.
Guest Post by Lance Pidgeon
There are a multitude of ways you get the BoM opinion of what the temperature was in December 1931. If for example you were interested in the maximum temperature around the Great Victoria Desert, along the border of South Australia and Western Australia, you could look at the CDO online data of raw recorded temperatures. Sadly there is no daily data available but after clicking on monthly climate data online, we find the average for the month of December 1931 was 23.9C in Eucla. (Not too hot for summer near the desert).
…
Alternatively you could look at the AWAP map of average temperature and see the yellow colour for the range 24 to 27 degrees C here. That’s OK.
…
But look north of Eucla to the “red fingers” area overlapping the S.A. / W.A. border above this. (Follow the big red arrow). In the red zone the average maximum for the whole month was a scorching hot maximum temperature between 36 and 39 degrees C. How hot were the hottest days that month? You might be surprised to know that the highest maximum for that month in the same spot was only between 33 and 36 degrees C here.
[It’s a pretty cool form of meteorological maths where there were no days above 36C, but the average was 36 or more… – Jo]
…
At Eucla, not known for it’s mild summer weather, both maps show a cool average and highest max of 24 to 27 degrees C.
The BOM divisional Meteorologist who covered the area in 1931 might be even more surprized than you. The newspapers at the time reported at least two days with 42.8 Degrees C (109 Degrees F) and 40 Degrees C (104 F). What happened to that heat?
…
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/29882924
….
After 80 years of meteorological advances, the BoM’s new ACORN data set provides daily temperature numbers:
1931-12-01 29.0
1931-12-02 20.3
1931-12-03 19.5
193112-04 21.4
193112-05 22.4
193112-06 24.3
193112-07 22.9
193112-08 25.8
193112-09 25.8
193112-10 25.8
193112-11 99999.9
193112-12 99999.9
193112-13 99999.9
193112-14 99999.9
193112-15 99999.9
193112-16 99999.9
193112-17 99999.9
193112-18 99999.9
193112-19 99999.9
193112-20 99999.9
193112-21 99999.9
193112-22 99999.9
193112-23 29.0
193112-24 30.8
193112-25 36.4
193112-26 99999.9
193112-27 99999.9
193112-28 99999.9
193112-29 99999.9
193112-30 99999.9
193112-31 99999.9
99999.9 Is the BoMs way of saying “Nothing to see here move along”. It is also my cue to dig deeper. The “Weather Bureau” from Perth in 1932 explain why digging deeper hit pay dirt here.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/94787055
The railway station, Cook records 112F on December 30 or 31st.
….
The heatwave passed over to the North of Eucla from Rawlinna (About 360 kms West North West of Eucla at 111 Degrees F (43.9 C) to Cook (About 180 kms North East of Eucla) at 112 degrees F (44.4 C) around December 30 to 31, exactly the way the AWAP daily maps say it did not.
This sadly is not the limit of the problems and contradictions with these AWAP maps. If you can stand a bit of coarse sarcastic humour, a whole lot more and worse can be seen from six short videos I’ve made.
If however all you need is an accurate report on the heat of that summer, the best way is to ask a dead parrot here.
— Lance
.
It’s nothing to worry about – just a small mix up of the colours of their cuisenaire rods.
The BOM review panel will fix it soon.
192
They have “fixed” it.
Try the Giles Station which has always been staffed by BoM personnel, but the older readings have been adjusted/homogenised/pasteurised with vitamins added to different values.
Conclusion: The BoM hires people who cannot read a thermometer.
P.S. The last time – in fact the only time – I was in Cook there were only 2 people living there permanently.
292
Graeme No.3
gile Meteorological station did not open til about 1956. The area had not even been surveyed until prep for the nuclear testing.
60
Oooops Giles.
So this part of Australia back then was the middle of a great unmeasured zone for which there is no data. Yet somehow they give it a temperature.
Lance Pidgeon
150
How conn venient.
150
Great work Lance.
It’s mathematically and geometrically possible to calculate a temperature for any spot on Earth if you have temperatures for three other places. There’s a little matter of making a few assumptions and calculating error bars of course, but that’s merely a trifle if the outcome is the result you want, regardless of how silly it looks.
Or to put it another way, why let the facts get in the way of a good story?
260
That’d be fine.
Hell, they do it already.
Just explain the assumptions and show the error bars and science could continue because they’d have something to monitor.
Let’s at least start with data.
50
“calculating error bars”
Yes Ian that will be interesting. EG: If sending a real reading to the 99999.9 bin is an error, will individual values get symetrical bars of both sign or just one?
10
Well if you have a missing observation for Eucla, a plausible temperature could be calculated using observations from Red Rocks Point, Forrest and Nullarbor. By doing this for say three years and comparing the calculated values to the actual observations for Eucla, the median daily difference and standard deviation (SD) can be obtained. Therefore the SD error bars (+/-) would be symmetrical.
When I was working on this a couple of years ago the median difference for Eucla was 0.13C, meaning the other stations tended to overestimate the Tmax slightly, and the SD was 1.36C.
Note a temperature for Eucla could also be calculated using stations further afield, such as Perth, Darwin and Melbourne but the SD would be much higher. Even though it looks silly to use those places, I suspect that’s what’s done on a global scale.
20
Ian Hill,
I have seen the meteorologists use a grid: the basic method is calculate an average temperature for an element in the grid based on what reliable temperature data you have. This is fine for working out climatologies for a large region because no one expects it to relate back to individual stations.
I think the AWAP maps are drawn up using such a grid. The gridded data is available for download, but it may be tricky to use it.
12
Ian Thanks for that.
“Well if you have a missing observation for Eucla, a plausible temperature could be calculated using observations from Red Rocks Point, Forrest and Nullarbor.”
None of those stations seem to have data back then. Could it still be plausible if they were to use stations that were open and reporting like Rawlinna, Fowlers bay and one from a bit further away to limit the common missing days like William Creek?
10
I found a relevant paper.
David Jones et al “High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia”
It is more complicated than it looks.
11
Whatever happened to the “HQ” data set Harry?
10
That’s right Harry. With the help of the BOM Audit team I devised an independent and relatively simple means of checking the BOM’s claims of Australia’s “hottest day ever” during the so called Angry Summer of 2012-13.
While they were correct for that particular day, the exercise revealed minor flaws in their mapping. Lance has found major ones.
20
I’ll have to reply to your above question here Lance. Yes, I was using stations in existence at the end of 2012. Going back to 1931, you would use the nearest three which enclose Eucla in a triangle, such as the ones you mention. The error bars start to get BIG.
Yet the BOM is prepared to publish high definition maps right from 1910, even when there were only a handful of stations in some states.
20
Siliggy.
What “HQ” data set are you referring to?
10
Ian Hill.
I am not sure why you think the mapping is all that important, and why you think any contradictions are “major”. I found a reason why the two maps may be inconsistent, but still I do not want to second-guess the BOM. What is important is the data and assumptions the BOM use when calculating climatic extremes, I would imagine.
To me any contradiction in the mapping is a irrelevant red herring. Personally, I was only interested in how the BOM created it’s climate grid.
12
You must have been asleep for the last decade.
“What “HQ” data set are you referring to?”
http://www.homogenisation.org/files/private/WG1/Bibliography/Applications/Applications%20(C-E)/dellamarta_etal_2004.pdf
10
I don’t know why it is so difficult for people to understand. On the “R” side people decry the destruction of data from a nation’s history. On the “L” side people treat history as a tool to be re-written and used for political purposes.
Surely both sides can compromise and come to an accommodation. The “R” side must accept the historical destruction of its data and documents. Otherwise the “Rs” are bigots, deniers, and anti-science. Government must then develop programs to make them accept reality or disappear.
And that is how one gets along with the forces of evil. Submit to the “Ls” or else.
160
See, the thing is, Eucla is situated on The Great Australian Bight, obviously sometime in the early hours on the morning of Friday 1st January 1932 the heat slipped into the ocean where it patiently waited to be found by peer reviewed warmists 80 years later.
673
Oh of course, that’s the obvious explanation. How silly we were not to realise.
171
James Bradley,
Wait Just-One-Minute. Only yesterday, BilB said that the reason for this was that the BoM had gone back and re-calibrated those old thermometers.
Now I’m confused. *scratches head*
Abe
152
JAG,
“Bilb said…”
Now that just doesn’t make sense.
91
James Bradley,
I know. *scratches head some more*.
But the *oceans swallowed my
homeworkheat* makes just as much sense, i.e. no sense at all. *begins to lose the little hair he’s got left from all the scratching*. 🙁Abe
121
PS
Now that you’ve admitted knowledge of tampering with scientific equipment presumably to fit the facts around the peer review.
Question to Bilb:
Is it correct the etiquette to recalibrate historical thermometers down 7C or recalibrate modern thermometers up 7C to avoid accusations of scientific misconduct?
162
James Bradley,
JAG, (sitting in for BilB who represents the time-travelling re-calibration industry), why obviously you have to recalibrate both. Otherwise you would be accused of having an agenda.
Abe
132
and to avoid being accused of discrimination…
90
I find the safest method is to split the difference and adjust each 3.5°.
50
Late December 2012 the British Met Office reported that the last global warming period had stalled (from 1998) and now they predict a Little Ice Age for Britain;
http://www.businessinsider.com/britain-is-heading-for-another-little-ice-age-2015-6?IR=T
150
This is sad for Australia and damning of the BoM. In my view this is worthy of criminal investigation. The stewards of public records are required to be held to a high standard. Accurate public records are an essential foundation of a democracy. If those who steward public records are not trustworthy how can the public have any faith in the government.
Anyone who respects good data and has some appreciation of the diligent effort that goes into collecting it should not watch the videos – they are depressing.
392
Now, now don’t be intolerant. The first question unwitting potential employees at BOM must answer (in the affirmative of course)is. “Do you believe in intelligent design?”
93
Rick have looked into this further and found a long trail of synchronously deleted clues. It looks like there will be a part two. The only hint for now is, I just wonder how often the wind blows from the North over Eucla.
Lance Pidgeon
81
Lance
I have done some analysis of the BoM data. The first data I downloaded from the BoM was over a decade ago looking at Broken Hill temperatures. That location was very important to Australia economically spawning both BHPB and Rio Tinto. It even boasts a US president amongst one of its workers. I expect that data to have been collected with some scientific know how and diligence. It is well known that rectal temperature readings are better indicator of temperature than scabs on the skin; Broken Hill as been describe fondly in that term relative to Australia. I plotted that data long ago and it made me sceptical about warming at least in Australia. This is a more recent update:
http://www.rickwill.bigpondhosting.com/Broken_Hill_Temp_Trend.pdf
I have retained that data in the event it was not so easy to come by in the future. In that regard the BoM do provide what should be a valuable public service by making it freely available. Last time I looked the raw data is still available. I have never bothered to compare it with homogenised data as you have done.
I have looked at eight or so other remote locations in Australia with long records and they show a similar trend although some are flat and some have small increase.
What really surprises me is that there seems to be little media alarm over the linked chart I extracted from the BoM review Forum June report:
http://www.rickwill.bigpondhosting.com/Scatter_Plot.png
I would be staggered if this result could be derived from an unbiased adjustment system. It is presented in the report without much commentary as if it is OK.
I have never looked at the ACORN data. I could have filled the gaps in the Broken hill record with some means of extrapolation but then I have corrupted the raw data.
These days I do not have much faith in surface temperature records. The tide guage in Sydney Harbour is probably as good a long term record of global average temperature as any. It indicates a long rising trend but the oceans have huge thermal inertia so it is not a timely indicator. For shorter term I consider the satellite records more reliable.
Sound climate records are a fundamental of engineering design. They are embodied in building regulations and codes of practice. If the climate data is unreliable then so is the engineering that depends on it. As a specific example the cost of insuring the existing industrial plants in Gladstone would rise appreciably if the area was prone to Category 5 cyclones. New plants would be more expensive to build as would homes. The climate information is fundamental. My interest in the climate stems from the need to know if it is undergoing more rapid change so greater margins can be incorporated in project design standards.
80
Rick
You may enjoy some of Kens work here.
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2010/09/14/the-australian-temperature-record-part-9-an-urban-myth/
He has done lots of that stuff. Have a look through his site if you have not already.
20
Accountability and transparency is required of the BOM – not a difficult, contrarian, radical or controversial proposition. It is a simple scientific proposition.
If public companies on the stock exchange have to give a high level of disclosure, why should the BOM not have to give an equally high level of disclosure to its shareholders – that is, us the Australian public.
140
If you looked deep enough, I think you would find that the public records of the day are still being held somewhere, with a high standard of physical protection, along with all of the administrative discussions, and other trivia, that went along with the collection of such records.
Nothing gets thrown away, but neither does it need to be made public. The public in general would not understand all of the information available, and would only become confused, with a resulting lack of confidence in the overall veracity of the information.
Therefore it is much better to remove as much administrative material, and any debates that may have occurred over its accuracy, before you tell the public anything that could be politically controversial.
With that mindset, it is a small step to “simplify” the information, in order to make it more publicly acceptable, within the political norms of today’s society.
90
Have you seen the ABC of late,the BoM isn’t an isolated entity,it would appear that all levels of the bureaucracies of the Govts and NGOs is infected with this malady but unfortunately our govts are not too keen on getting rid of the malady,I think that it suits their purposes to keep it,after all a corrupt administration is easy to manipulate for politicians who are adept at corruption.
I am sorry if I sound cynical but unfortunately history has shown this to be the case.
81
Some promptings would help
Been thinking lately of “Bureau of Black Magic”
But that would fit better if it could be brought back to BOM
Any takers?
72
Another Ian,
OK. I’ll bite. But only because you’re on to something keen.
The official name would be The Bureau in Oz on Magic.
Or Bureau On Magic for short.
Abe
91
– Bureau of Maladjustments.
–
– Bordering on Madness.
171
Sorry had more but hit wrong key, actually did a BOM and reduced my original number!
61
At the risk of running a good laugh into the ground, you could combine the two using Jo’s black box analogy and call it:
Bureau of Maladjusted Black Boxes Bordering on Madness.
then we could all sing along . . .
BoM B B BoM . . . Blue Moon.
Abe
81
Bureau of Magic. That could catch on. :- )
91
“Bureau of Meah …”, would be more aligned with the Twitterati.
51
“Do not take me for conjurer of cheap tricks?”
00
No, these tricks (aka: a clever thing to do, Jones 1999) are really expensive.
00
Well as of now I’m batting 1 and 1 so must be a target around here
20
If that means an average of 1 and a strike rate of 1 then I wouldn’t boast about it if I was you. In my youth, about 4 centuries ago, my average and strike rate (although these are modern constructs) would have been higher and I was a dreadful batsman.
30
In keeping with the French origin: Bureau of Merde
20
At the rate that historical temperature homogenisation by BoM is finding cooler times in earlier years, I won’t be surprised to see some claim that there was a mini ice age from 1880 and 1980 that nobody alive across that period even realised.
Could that explain why no-one from 1880 has survived to this present say?
131
I’ve edited and clarified a paragraph in my introduction which puts rather a sharper point on this:
“In places near Eucla, where old newspapers record 43C, the BOM tells us the highest maximum that month was “under 27C”. Far to the north of there, the highest maximum stayed under 36C, but the average for that same whole month was above 36C. Go figure.”
There are at least two separate mysteries in this one area in the same month.
We’ve also added in one more news item (second one showing). So there are three recordings of 40+ temperatures that month in different locations on different days.
232
Jo,
I’d make hard copies of all those URL’s before they disappear . . .
. . . as mysteriously as ‘The Missing Heat’! 😮
Abe
101
JAG,
You’re teasing now, you know it never really disappears, as previously discussed it just slips quietly into the ocean, and as for all things climate related such as the ‘tropical hot spot’, well you know, as they say in climate science:
“We know where it is – we just can’t find it.”
112
Three of the things that are missing:
snow-free winters in the UK
water-free dams in New South Wales and Queensland (remember Tim Flannery?)
The first ghost town of the 21st century located around the Swan River in Western Australia (Tim Flannery) again.
Love those predictions that the Warmists make.
140
john,
Ah yes, Tim Flannery, the Nostradamus of our time, future generations will attribute anything and everything as a prediction and venerate his incomprehensible meanderings, I mean geez, the guy covers the main catastrophe groups: war, famine, pestilence and death.
Keep drivin’ it like you stole it, Tim.
131
What about Paul Erhlich? I’d rate him as another.
50
You missed the Sydney Opera House being underwater by the year 2000
90
“We know where it is – we just
can’t findneed to make it.”There, fixed it for you.
60
99999.9 mean “no data”. An UNKNOWN. A NULL value in modern data handling terminology.
That means that it’s not the interpolated value of surrounding days.
It’s also not the arbitrarily weighted average of “surrounding” weather stations at about the same time.
That particular “EUCLA” data set has many holes in it; several spanning months; including whole summers.
An inferred temperature when the recording was absent (indicated by 99999.9) is pure fabrication.
Australia needs a Bureau of Meteorology; not a Bureau of Fabrication.
So-called “climate scientists” have had decades to figure out how to get useful statistics out of holey weather data; because that is the nature of weather data; discontintinuous. But all that they seem to have done is to apply lashings of Spakfilla over the holes and then used a power sander to smooth it down to a shape that pleases them. [snip]
182
If you actually look at the records, they omit some data because the max or min temperature was exactly the same the previous day and so had to be a mistake.
Last year, there was three days in a row that were -2.3°C which was the old record for August in Mildura..
Then it was a new record of -3.1°C. It kind of shows that having two days in a row of the same temp is not unusual (or the BOM measurements are a bit rubbery).
10
a bit of fun. this Met Office forecast:
25 June: UK Met Office: Hotter weather for the start of July
The weather is showing signs of heating up next week for the start of the Wimbledon fortnight.
In contrast to June so far, which has seen temperatures often near or just below normal, next week could see a real change in the way it feels – with hot days and humid nights, especially across the south.
It looks like heat will start to build across Iberia later this weekend and spread northwards across France early next week as a tropical continental airmass begins to dominate the weather…
The UK is likely to be near the boundary between this tropical continental airmass and a tropical maritime airmass over the Atlantic, but we do expect to see temperatures rise across the whole of the UK for the start of July.
Scotland could see highs in the low to mid 20’s (although it may be cloudy here at times), and highs across southern Britain are likely to reach the low 30’s Celsius with a small chance of values in the mid 30’s here.
It’s worth saying that there is some uncertainty about how much of the hot weather from the continent will reach us, and it may only last a couple of days before temperatures drop a little. As is traditional with hot weather in the UK in the summer it may end with thunderstorms.
ONE COMMENT by Scottish Sceptic:
I’m sitting here with my coat on inside because I stupidly thought I might be able to turn off the central heating today. This is certainly unusual weather we have been having this year so far and not any explanation from the Met Office.
Perhaps if the Met Office were moved from the warm south to Glasgow you might treat our weather a bit more seriously?
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/06/25/hotter-weather-for-the-start-of-july/?preview_id=8170&preview_nonce=c9de425bce
has resulted in these headlines:
UK Mirror: UK weather: Britain to be hotter than Barbados just in time for Wimbledon
UK Lancashire Telegraph: Blackburn set to be warmer than Istanbul during mini-heatwave next week
ITV: Heatwave is on the way says the Met Office
Newsquest: Scorchio! London could be hotter than Spain and Greece as spell of VERY warm weather arrives
62
Simmer down there, Pat (no pun intended),
Those zany poms have a habit of stripping down to singlets and undershorts and wearing knotted hankies on their heads if a thermometer even looks like reaching 15C, just rem,ember the old saying:
“A Met Office media release does not a summer make.”
100
James: you forgot to mention barbecues. We poms love our barbecues. Out there even in the rain, the event host (always male) will be turning over the frozen chicken which won’t be cooked thoroughly and will be burnt on the outside, just like the beefburgers.
I consider the chances of getting food poisoning are high – I never touch barbecued meat.
Why not cook the food in the household’s oven and just bring it out? Or am I missing something? The timeless romance of the whole ritual perhaps?
Barbecues in the UK? Why?
Anyway, that’s what we poms do. We like convertible cars as well…..
10
C500,
And writing of cars, what’s that Morris Dancing all about anyway?
20
I’ll start with the 100% un-challengable claim that I am computer illiterate.
To err is human, but to really foul things up you need a computer.
Paul R. Ehrlich
&
Never trust a computer you can’t throw out a window.
Steve Wozniak [ Apple co-founder with Steve Jobs ]
&
Computers are like Old Testament gods; lots of rules and no mercy.
Joseph Campbell
————–
The faulty data depicted here from the BOM smacks of very similar data corruption from the NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center [ NCDC run by the infamous Tom Karl of very recent ship inlet / data buoy temperature increasing data adjustment infamy ]
The very considerable corruption and plain stupidity of so many of those simple mistakes in the NCDC’s temperature station data was discussed at length some months ago on various skeptic blogs with very similar claims about the wholesale corruption of the NCDC’s American data being very similar to what Lance is publicising here
Items such as having a few American stations based in the middle of Europe if you deciphered the Lat/ Long numbers.
Maybe a repeat performance by the BOM.
My guess is that firstly, the BOM is probably using large slabs / large modules of the temperature data adjusting computer program from the USA or elsewhere.
Programming such an all embracing data accretion program must be quite horrific in it’s time required plus the finding and elimination of bugs and glitches that inevitable lead to minor and major faults in the final output.
I would doubt that most of the BOM climate personnel have had little more than basic programming education and experience as that seems to be the norm amongst climate proffessionals,
They just sort of fall into programming without really knowing the real ins and outs of proper programming and most importantly, the recording of every single change they make to the program.
So the logical thing for them to do to save time, effort and resources is to acquire modules from similar programs plus write a few circumstance specific modules yourself and link them into a whole.
The consequences of this strategy is that nobody is at all sure that when those modules interact, how they affect each others computations and just what type and what level of verisimilitude and relationship with the end product will have with reality outside of a computer model program and in the real world.
So run some geographically limited data points through and if the data output looks OK then push it out the door hence ACORN
.
After all somebody else has done ALL the fault finding on those modules you incorporated into the overall program haven’t they?
So why bother to do the full check again especially if you aren’t at all sure with your limited programming experience or the massive program you have just acquired access to just where and how you should start or even what you should look for ?
Ask Harry on the Climate Gate Harry read me txt. file of the Climate Gate computer programming debacle just how seriously bad the top echelons of climate science program their computers and how distantly related to reality the outputs from those climate scientist programmed computer outputs actually are.
________________
Quite a number of years ago possibly in the early noughties, I’ve completely forgotten the details, a BOM computerised internet display became non operational or was severely distorted.
Eventually I rang the BOM to lodge a complaint which came as a surprise to the BOM computer guru on the other end so he ran a check on the screen output and saw there was a problem.
I was rung back by the BOM guru in a couple of hours with an explanation.
The new shift had come in and somebody on that shift thought he knew more about it than anybody else so he changed a few things around without recording any of the changes. It took them a while to unravel the consequences.
And I was assured from a somewhat annoyed BOM person and he sounded like it too, that that particular “somebody” had got a very large verbal boot in the appropiate place.
_____________
My guess is that there is a seriously corrupted data accretions and analysis program lifted from somewhere else like the USA , modified and fiddled with by the BOM climate mob, most of whom haven’t got any real education or knowledge of computer programming nor know how and why any fiddles they might do will alter, distort and corrupt the output data.
All done with a long established hubris and arrogance that nobody will be able to check their programming nor will find a way of checking their results and therefore they are virtually immune to any back lashes from outside of their own tight little cabal of BOM climate prophecy fiddlers and the BOM’s “The End is Near” sandwich board carriers.
Meanwhile they collect their pay as usual and we all have to live with the consequences of the policy decisions made on the basis of the BOM’s seriously corrupted and reality defying data outputs.
222
ROM
Don’t I recall that BOM bought software from the British Met a while back.
I’ve always wondered if it was the you-beaut seasonal outlook model (the one of infamy) as BOM has not long blessed us with a new one for their own efforts.
But You could well be right on your punt as well
61
And I almost forgot this
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/gistemp/
“I’m adopting this “tag line” about tomatoes due to the simple fact that my tomato garden is a more accurate reporter of the temperature than is GIStemp”
70
James Bradley – as a part-time londoner, i’m well aware how we go crazy when the temps reach double digits. but it will be fun to see how this latest forecast – as described by the press – pans out.
this is all over the MSM tonite:
26 June: UK Telegraph: Barney Henderson: Barack Obama interviews Sir David Attenborough
US president interviews world renowned British naturalist about climate change
President Barack Obama has met Sir David Attenborough in a rare encounter for a one-off television programme in which they discuss climate change and the challenges facing future generations…
Mr Obama is usually the one taking questions, but in the BBC programme that will be aired on Sunday night, he asks the beloved 89-year-old broadcaster: “What are the prospects for this blue marble that we live on?”
Sir David talks about the importance of harnessing renewable energy sources, but then puts the president on the spot, asking him why he has not put as much effort into tackling climate change as previous presidents did to putting a man on the moon.
Mr Obama, who has made tackling climate change one of the major issues of his presidency, answered: “We’re not moving as fast as we need to and part of what I know from watching your programmes, and all the great work you’ve done, is that these ecosystems are all interconnected.
“If just one country is doing the right thing but other countries are not, then we’re not going to solve the problem, we’re going to have to have a global solution to this…
The interview was filmed in May on Sir David’s birthday. He said afterwards he was left “astonished” that his environmental expertise had been called upon – by the President of the United States…
Mr Obama told Sir David that kids are “much more environmentally aware” than adults, citing his daughters Malia, 16, and Sasha, 13, as examples.
“They do not dispute, for example, the science around climate change,” Obama said in the clip.
Sir David agreed that adults lose the fascination with nature that is common among children.
***”A 5-year-old, turning over a stone and seeing a slug, and says, ‘What a treasure!’ ***Kids understand the natural world,” he said
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/barackobama/11700236/Barack-Obama-interviews-Sir-David-Attenborough.html
***perhaps CAGW should be determined by 5-year-olds or teenagers like the jet-setting Sasha & Malia.
71
Pat,
Obama flogged the horse to death and is now pushing the wagon.
121
I know what came crawling out of that rock when the kids turned it over,they may have started out as slugs but they soon morphed into a politician and a TV presenter.
If I can remember rightly as a kid when I turned over a rock I generally had my trusty magnifying glass with me and then zapped whatever crawled out with a good dose of magnified sunlight(redbacks and ants were favourites)
31
[It’s a pretty cool form of meteorological maths where there were no days above 36C, but the average was 36 or more… – Jo]
Must be that “global warming math”. I always suspected it was different from what I learned in school. Now I know!
92
Sheri,
It’s that “new math” they’ve been teaching in school for years. It goes along with “sight reading” where, according to one expert, it’s perfectly alright for the student to say pony when reading the word horse because after all, the two are the same thing. Right?
When I read that in my local paper I was sorely tempted to write a letter to the editor saying, yes I agree with him. And for the same reason I’m sure he’ll agree with me that when I read his name it’s perfectly alright to say the word jackass. After all, the two are the same thing.
I’ve regretted not writing that letter ever since.
We live in a different world these days — Alice in Wonderland come true. I wonder how it would work if we averaged the IQs of all these warmists. 😉
132
You end up with the square root of a negative number. It all about i, you see.
112
Averaging numbers is so yesterday. Today you homogenize the numbers, then you can really start cookin’.
00
Given the high price of running air conditioning these days, I wonder if you’d loan me your BOM to cool my house this summer. It looks like they could figure out a data set that would work. And that would kill two birds with one stone – I get free cooling and you get the BOM off your back for the summer (northern hemisphere of course). 😉
70
PS:
Am I right, that desert is home to a rail line that is virtually a straight line across hundreds of miles of nothing. My brother, an even greater railfan than I am, made a rail tour of Oz, including that line. His description of it was just what I said, hundreds of miles of nothing. He added, pity the poor engineer who has nothing to do but try to stay awake so he can respond to the deadman mechanism which requires him to hold a button to raise a needle on a gauge but not let it reach the top of the scale, then release it and let the needle go down again but not reach the bottom. If it hits either extreme the train is stopped on the assumption that the engineer is asleep or dead. Sounds like a job for zombies — or one that will make you a zombie.
60
Hi Roy,
That may be how a dead man’s switch works in the god ol’ US of A, but here in Oz ours is a floor pedal sometimes jammed down with a rubber thong (please insert flip-flop for thong or any other colloquialism describing rubber footware item held to sole of foot with rubber straps).
70
James,
About the deadman, I can only relate what my brother told me about it.
In the early days of diesel locomotives here in the states there was that floor pedal that had to have foot pressure or something else holding it down or you were stopped, also probably out of a job. I’ve heard stories about tool boxes being put on top of the pedal to keep it down. On a long run it was an almost impossible thing to keep the same foot on that pedal continuously and you dared not let the thing come off the floor if you tried to switch feet.
These days the modern equipment is more sophisticated and a lot better for the engineer. If there is any control movement, throttle, brake, even the horn button within the timeout period, maybe 30 seconds to a minute, the system knows the engineer is there and awake so he doesn’t need to do anything else. But if there’s no change within the timeout a warning beeper goes off and the engineer has a few seconds to hit a button to silence it and reset the timeout — or of course, move some control. As I recall what I was told talking to the engineer(**) on one trip, the button needs to be pushed a randomly selected number of times to prevent using anything to simply hold it down and foil the system.
In the days of steam there were no deadman controls of any kind. My grandfather began his career in railroading in the late 1800s and he had some tales of wrecks, boiler explosions and lesser mishaps along with photos of some of it to prove the point. It fascinated me as a young kid growing up and made me a diehard railfan.
Railroading remains a dangerous thing even today with all the sophisticated signaling and other safeguards. See here and here. The first one is the world’s eye view of the wreck (Wiki) and the second is the National Transportation Board’s official report on probably the best known trainwreck in the country, Metrolink 111.
It’s a lot of detailed reading but the lead in to a disaster like Metrolink 111 is a fascinating look at how things go very wrong one slow step at a time, passing up possibly three or four good opportunities to stop the disaster before it happens. And now there’s pressure to install systems that monitor train position with GPS, called (mistakenly in my view) positive train control. I wonder how well it will work. And we only find out when it fails.
** The modern Amtrak and commuter trains are double ended. There’s a control position at the back of the rear car as well as in the cab. That way they don’t need to turn the train around at either end of a run. There’s no chance of a ride in the cab but if you’re in the rear car and show some interest you usually can get a grandstand seat during the time the train is running “backward”. It was breathtaking the first time I stood there watching the track ahead come rushing up to meet me and I could see the speedometer reading over 95 MPH. Almost scary.
10
Roy Hogue @ #13.1
Roy, look up Tran Australian Railway on Wiki.
[quoted ]
The Trans-Australian Railway crosses the Nullarbor Plain of Australia from Port Augusta in South Australia to Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. It includes a 478 kilometre stretch of dead-straight track, the world’s longest, between the 797 km post west of Ooldea and the 1275 km post west of Loongana.[1]
In 1901, the six Australian colonies federated to form the Commonwealth of Australia. At that time, Perth, the capital of Western Australia, was isolated from the remaining Australian States by thousands of miles of desert terrain and the only practicable method of transport was by sea, a time-consuming, inconvenient and often uncomfortable voyage across the Great Australian Bight, a stretch of water known for rough seas.
One of the inducements held out to Western Australians to join the new federation was the promise of a federally funded railway line linking Western Australia with the rest of the continent.
In 1907 legislation was passed, allowing for the route to be surveyed. The survey was completed in 1909 and proposed a route from Port Augusta (the existing railhead at the head of Spencer Gulf in South Australia’s wheatfields) via Tarcoola to the gold mining centre of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, a distance of 1063 miles (1711 km). The line was to be to the standard gauge of 4 ft 8 1⁄2 in (1,435 mm), even though the state railway systems at both ends were narrow gauge at the time. Its cost was estimated at £4,045,000.
Legislation authorising the construction was passed in December 1911 by the Andrew Fisher Government and Commonwealth Railways was established in 1912 to build the line. Work commenced in September 1912 in Port Augusta.
Work proceeded eastwards from Kalgoorlie and westwards from Port Augusta through the years of the First World War. By 1915, the two ends of the line were just over 600 miles (966 km) apart with materials being delivered daily.[2] Construction progressed steadily as the line was extended through dry and desolate regions until the two halves of the line met on 17 October 1917.[3]
The entire intercity route was not converted to standard gauge until 1970.
————–
There was many a funny story from that early steam powered Transcontinental Line times which was inclined to be fairly casual way out there in the gibbers of the Nullabor and a thousand kilometres from civilisation.
One story told to myself probably back in the 1960’s goes thus.
There was a somewhat notorious sand hill somewhere on that line which had quite steep grades to climb.
Usually the steamers required quite a good long run up to get enough momentum to master the approach and make it to the top of that sand hill.
Sometimes, in fact frequently they had to have two or three goes at climbing the grades of that hill.
This time around they made the grade first time around and did so with relative ease.
Which created some strong suspicions up front that all was not what it was supposed to be so a stop was made and the crew wandered back to have a check and look.
They only had to back up about 40 miles before they found the other half of the train.
———–
Just a couple of bits of information about Western Australia and Perth which I doubt that at least a quarter of Australia’s residents don’t know as that quarter is foreign born and have migrated to Australia over the last half a century.
Perth is geographically, the most isolated capital city on Earth.
Western Australia if it was a nation in its own right would geographically be the Tenth Largest Nation in area on Earth.
With the splitting of Sudan into North and South Sudan, Western Australia is now larger in area than any nation in Africa.
They only had to reverse about 40 miles to collect the other half of the train.
50
ROM,
Fascinating. Thanks.
10
A long time ago, in another place in the Red Centre, I was part of a team traversing the expanse with a high pressure natural gas pipeline.
A young lady project manager from Solar Turbines was oh so concerned that we be fully aware of just how environmentally friendly their machines are, and that we should take every opportunity to stress how the gas turbines would not harm the environment.
I couldn’t help it. I said “You don’t seem to be aware that there is no environment out there. There is nothing at all. Absolutely nothing but hot sand in the daytime and cold air at night. There is no need for you to be upset about the environment”. There were a few minutes of silence while she absorbed that. By the way, Solar Turbines is a trade name for a Caterpillar company. It has absolutely nothing to do with so-called “solar energy”.
20
Off topic Jo, but I do wish that you would maintain your Facebook page a little more often. I try to reference your work when entering into FB arguments re climate change, alternative energy etc, but the average FB user can’t be bothered going to this blog it seems, and would prefer to go to a FB page. If you’re not on social media, you are mainly just preaching to the converted !
60
bodge, I could use some advice then about what the FB user needs. Since I don’t fight in those landscapes, I’m not sure what teh ideal FB argument looks like. Does it have a scientific reference, or is a witty one liner the thing? Do we just need a graph and a link to the paper?
82
Well Jo, I am not particularly a FB expert, but I am currently involved in an argument re Wind turbines. So I would think for example links on your page to discussions/your posts on that subject among others. Would it be impractical for your FB page to be a carbon copy of your blog page ? Anyway, whenever I visit this blog I see the pretty much the same old names from respondents, which prompts the comment that you are preaching to the converted. I would like to see your message get out there to the great unwashed and misinformed, and like it or not, a lot of them live on Facebook.
80
I’m a bit of an Internet Klutz, and useless at linking, say to this current post of yours. Easier for me and others to simply ‘share’ this article to my own ‘status’ if it appeared on your FB page.
60
Hi Jo, there’s one here on the Broome noticeboard about the ABC article, ‘The End of Coal’, nearly 400 comments, just from this Facebook user, Broome and Community Noticeboard.
30
Fairfax – Peter Hannam has this Facebook page: Celsius
The future is uncertain, but fb sure is ‘now.’
50
Also has accompanying blog: Celsius Guru
and posts links @fb
40
The problem is in the gridding algorithm. Geologists and geophysicists run into this often. The problem is a lousy program that does not respect the individual datapoints after there has been a smoothing function.
This is serious in the oil and gas business. You have specific values for each well, but the computer grids and maps – supposedly in an objective, mathematically correct way that leaves no avenues for complaint – and gives new values to your wells.
It is outrageous that the BOM has a lousier understanding of the end result than small-town geoscience guys. But then, we’re trying to make a buck and they are trying to make a point.
131
The difference between a business and the climate community is that the former knows from bitter experience that they have everything to lose if they do not critically evaluate the results of their homogenizations, whilst the latter knows from bitter experience (e.g. various Hockey Sticks and Lewandowsky’s surveys) that they have everything to lose if they enable others critically evaluate the results of their homogenizations.
101
My view of what is happening here is that the deletion of past extreme data is not deliberate. Instead it is part of the homogenization process. Consider four things.
First is the definition. Venema et al. 2012 defines temperature homogenization thus:-
(Italics mine)
Second, recognize that there were less temperature stations in 1931 than there are today. When Euan Mearns looked at the GHCN/GISS data for Central Australia (included Cook, but not Eucla) of the 30 stations he looked at, only 10 were reporting in 1931, compared to 20-25 during the recent warming phase.
http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/number_stations.png
Third, recognize temperature trends do vary with distance. Even the NASA GISS temp maps, based as they are on homogenized, smoothed and extrapolated data, show wide variations in warming trends.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
Fourth is to recognize that the biggest variations from trend are likely to be when there is largest average changes, and that from 1910 to 1930 globally there was a large rise in average temperatures.
Fifth is to recognize that homogenization adjustments are (usually) zero in the present and calculations backwards by a series of steps. Differences in trends could get exaggerated*.
Putting the first four factors together, leads to the conclusion that homogenization is much more likely to smooth out the warming peaks of the 1930s than the recent warming peaks of the last 20 years*. The fifth point, if confirmed by testing, would compound this issue. Also the Venema paper shows that different homogenization algorithms produce significantly different results. The BOM algorithms seem to be about the most aggressive around, but how they actually work is a big secret. 🙂
*Tests of these hypotheses are possible given a willingness to test the processes and sufficient funding.
73
Kevin Thankyou for that list it simplifies the whole thing down for lay people.
“My view of what is happening here is that the deletion of past extreme data is not deliberate.”
My view is that those who understand this process must know this type of thing will happen. We are not looking at work done by naive beginners
Re your point 1)
“remove the effects of artificial changes”
It can easily be seen from the Bureau reports in the newspaper articles above that the heat was real and false removal has occured. It is so easy to see that those responsible should explain why it was not prevented. If these are experienced and well trained people why was it not predicted, anticipated and repaired. There is a big obvious difference between removing an error and replacing a value with an average value. The error caused by the average value would in the case of extremes, obviously be worse than an inaccurate reading. How hard would it be to test to see if the difference between a likely value and average is greater than the likely error? Eg: During a heatwave the true value is not likely to be average.
Re your point 2)
“recognize that there were less temperature stations in 1931 than there are today. ”
For this reason it is obviously very very important to gather all the old data from whatever station did exist in data sparse areas and digitise the lot.
Please watch this video if you have not and also note the links in the description underneath. It is not an isolated example!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-1MOyO3YBM
It is also important to limit the deletions in step 1 to the carefully confirmed artificial changes not the entire days value because a missing value from one site in a data sparse area affects other sites far far away.
Re your point 3)
“recognize temperature trends do vary with distance.”
For this reason. The value for places way out in the middle of the great unmeasured zone should be grey on the maps and not included in trend calculations. Including doubtful assumptions as data is not far from just making stuff up.
Re your point 4)
“Fourth is to recognize that the biggest variations from trend are likely to be when there is largest average changes”
The reverse is also true. The smallest variations from trend will exist were no data has been falsly replaced with an average value. This will make the past look constant and unchanging. Making all trends appear more extreme later from the time real data became available. Again well trained experts would be able to predict this result.
Re your point 5)
“recognize that homogenization adjustments are (usually) zero in the present and calculations backwards by a series of steps.”
It has been shown that old Stevenson screens become less accurate with modest wear and tear. So calulating a step change back in time based on a short overlap will alter the best data by an amount calculated from the most innacurate end of the data. Again well traned experts would know this.
https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/IMOP/publications/IOM-66.pdf
81
Hi Sliggy
Thank you for taking time to read through my long comment and attempting a rebuttal. We have different approaches, and there may be something to be learned from both. Hopefully others can see the differences and compare for themselves, even though we may both stick to out positions.
You say
This I disagree with. Temperature data is highly complex, and can be interpreted in many different ways. What is more, the climate community are not neutral observers. In accountancy and economics I have long recognized that data about complex issues is limited; does not fit the issues we would want to understand; and often full of measurement biases. So look at data in different ways and you will derive different answers. An accountant doing this can end up becoming a tad manic. 🙂 Those in the climate community believe that “the world is warming and humans are the cause of it.” The climate communities criteria for evaluating data and the outputs of homogenizations or other model outputs rests more upon this criteria of conformity to their beliefs about the world rather than comparing with the data inputs. I would suggest that rather than super-intelligent people who fully understand the data, and deliberately convey a different message, they are people who have never had to critically evaluate the data nor have realized that the world may be different from their beliefs. The uncritical acceptance of the Karl paper that denies the pause in warming is evidence of this.
The lack of critical evaluation was evident from the adjustments for the clear fall in average temperatures in Paraguay at the end of the 1960s. It is clear evidence of the failure of homogenization algorithms, but nobody within the climate community noticed.
The evidence for the climate community adjusting of the real world to conform with their beliefs is (inadvertently) provided by Stephan Lewandowsky. The strong believers in climate change also have extreme left-environmentalist political beliefs. Rather than climate science providing the justification for the suppression of democracy and freedom of expression a necessity, it is climate change that provides a vehicle for imposing left-authoritarian beliefs.
Point 3 to 5 can be tested against the data. I hope they will be tested, as even if I am wrong (or the points are insignificant), greater understanding of the data could be achieved.
72
There needs to be a Royal Commission into climate data fraud at the BoM (for non-Australians an R.C. is a top level public inquiry with wide-ranging powers). A court also needs to order the BoM to cease and desist destroying original paper records.
101
A royal commision yes but not limited to the f word. It could be that these scientists have not been well trained and that these errors are due to universitys allowing hoards of incompetent and poorly educated “scientists” with less idea about the workings of things than the workshop gaurd dog loose onto the worlds data. I did one subject at advanced diploma level with several would be climatologists. I asked them why they were doing an engineering subject. They said it got them recognition of prior learning that got them off doing two of their own subjects. These guys rarely turned up for class and did not put much effort in because it was just a pass they wanted and no more. I asked them why they were doing climatology. The answer was that it was a full year shorter at a full time rate than engineering and nearly guaranteed a cushy government job. This pass would make it even shorter. They also said something else which does bring the f word back in regarding who was funding them and why.
91
The Met Office have been at pains to add this return of a solar minimum is not going to halt global warming, although it would slow it a little. The study, published in Nature Communications, found overall cooling of the Earth of 0.1C, but the Northern Hemisphere could expect much harsher winters.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com.au/our-cooling-sun-could-deliver-another-little-ice-age-like-that-which-once-saw-the-thames-freeze-over-2015-6#ixzz3eCdEQDQ5
Isn’t called Earth Cycles? And following a period of cooling there is another warming period to follow. As the China delegation to Copenhagen explained that during 3,600 years of civilisation in China there were three warmer periods than the most recent one, and during each warmer period there was greater prosperity as crops yields increased.
60
Great work from Siliggy.
It’s the cover-up where they always come undone, and Lance makes those maps dance a two-step.
O/t, but of interest, the ABC has this page:
The psychology of climate change: where do you stand?
A psychology honours student from Charles Sturt University has designed an online survey to find out what people really think about climate change.
~ ~ ~
The link provided doesn’t work, but here is the survey link@surveymonkey.
The author/survey doesn’t clearly define climate change, but, the questions are clear enough when asking about doomsday global warming, as opposed to ‘climate change,’ so, you can answer the questions with a degree of clarity.
Worth a squiz, imho.
60
Ta
Didn’t hurt a bit, but I wish they would stop referring to climate change when they mean global warming caused by a trace gas.
71
I think many of the questions are poorly worded so the results will not mean much.
60
There is a line at the end where you get to type in some text. I explained in the shortest way so it would fit, that climate change is now at the lowest rate in known history. So if anything humans are the solution and the planet needs more.
71
Can someone please give us non Aussie residents an update of progress on with the BOM investigation/review or whatever it is called.
51
Ross.
Look here.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2015_TAF_report.pdf
30
Can someone please give us non Aussie residents an update of progress on the BOM investigation/review or whatever it is called.
21
Link to post by Dr Jennifer Marohasy 20 June, 2015:
Remember Rutherglen, & “Whoever has Honor Follow Me!”
~ ~ ~
Media release
18 June 2015
The Hon. Bob Baldwin MP
Advisory panel confirms integrity of Australia’s temperature records
An independent review has endorsed the Bureau of Meteorology’s management of Australia’s official temperature record.
50
Thank you siliggy and handjive
PS Apolgies for the double post earlier.
40
25 June: Boston Globe: Steve Annear: City solicits guesses on when lingering snow mound melts
Trying to secure a meeting with Mayor Martin J. Walsh? All you have to do is guess exactly when the giant South Boston snow mound, a lingering reminder of the relentless winter, will finally dissolve.
On Thursday, Walsh’s office launched a contest inviting residents to weigh in on social media and predict the pile’s demise…
Although it’s officially summer, and temperatures have soared into the 80s, the snow mound refuses to go away…
To enter the mayor’s contest, participants have to tweet Walsh using the hashtag #BOSMeltNow. The message should include the month and day a contestant believes the snow will finally disappear. Submissions are due by July 15.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/06/25/mayor-walsh-wants-residents-guess-when-snow-will-melt/OZ0ZAHnvxn0GCk3MimtPWN/story.html
IceAgeNow comments on the above: BTW, the pile is at sea level.
26 June: StevenGoddard: Summer Temperatures In Greenland Have Plummeted To Record Lows
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/06/26/summer-temperatures-in-greenland-have-plummeted-to-record-lows/
31
When scientists think fit to tweak,
Past temps. for a month,day or week,
Just to further their cause,
And diminish the ‘pause’,
Then the future for warmists is bleak.
111
I haven’t time to read all the comments above, so if this has already been noted, then my apology. You image at the top of the article incorrectly refers to the “Great Victorian Desert”, it should in fact read: Great Victoria Desert.
As usual, however, another compelling article; keep up the great work!
30
Thanks John. I’ll fix that!
10
Jo could have referred to the “Great Victorian Dessert”, which would definitely be something to trifle with.
60
Good on ya Lance! And there are more examples out there too I’m led to believe.
Ken
70
for those who followed this shameful story, a followup. novel length, but fascinating:
27 June: UK Daily Mail: Guy Adams: A very flawed accuser: Investigation into the academic who hounded a Nobel Prize winning scientist out of his job reveals troubling questions about her testimony
On Monday, June 8, a British academic called Connie St Louis uploaded a sensational document to her Twitter feed. Beginning with the question ‘Why are the British so embarrassing abroad?’, it offered an account of bizarre remarks that a Nobel Prize-winning biologist by the name of Sir Tim Hunt had made earlier that day at a conference in Seoul, the capital of South Korea…
The days that followed saw him unceremoniously hounded out of honorary positions at University College London (UCL), the Royal Society and the European Research Council (ERC)…
Troubled by Sir Tim’s fate, a collection of eminent scientists, including eight other Nobel Prize winners (and several senior female academics) chose to speak out publicly in support of him.
Many professed outrage that, in the echo-chamber of social media, a single careless remark, just 37 words long, could apparently derail the career of a pioneering scientist…
Then, early this week, the simmering dispute took a further, seismic twist.
It came courtesy of The Times newspaper, which revealed the contents of a leaked report into Sir Tim’s fall from grace compiled by an EU official who had accompanied him to the Seoul conference…READ ALL
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3141158/A-flawed-accuser-Investigation-academic-hounded-Nobel-Prize-winning-scientist-job-reveals-troubling-questions-testimony.html
61
Lance,
I like it!
I think our wizards of algorithms at the BoM wave their wands at contour maps like this.
Relief map https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/05/Reliefmap_of_Australia.png
Vegetation contours http://www.icsm.gov.au/mapping/images/vegetation.jpg
Rainfall contours http://www.water.gov.au/MapImages/Fg14_BoM_TotalRainfall_2004-05.gif
Looking forward to your Part 2, Bob
41
We must get to the bottom of this by appointing the investigative reporters of the ABC (Arbitrary Bias & Cheating) as that would be something worthwhile for my $1.1Bn a year.
Seriously, what would you rather be? A BoM meteorologist or a piano player in a brothel? One earns an honest living, but the other goes to work each day in the full knowledge that he/she must commit [snip] and give spurious [snip] reasons for changing data that honest men spent their lives carefully compiling. Music lessons anyone?
[We must be very careful with certain words] ED
31
27 June: 9News: AAP: Liberals open fire on Labor and Shorten
The Liberal Party has managed to avoid any public spat over the most controversial issue before the federal council.
A motion that the government should not sign any binding climate agreement at a United Nations summit in Paris this year was put off to be dealt with by the party’s policy standing committee.
Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger spoke on Friday to the party’s federal regional and rural committee, which put forward the motion, and convinced them it should be considered by senior party members on the policy committee.
“(It is) not trying to avoid debate, but it’s probably better that it’s given a lot more consideration,” Mr Kroger said…
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/06/27/03/36/coalition-poll-win-won-t-be-easy-libs
27 June: Australian: Chris Kenny: ABC’s Mark Scott misses the point in defending Q&A …
The independence argument was a hysterical distraction from Scott’s task of explaining an irresponsible choice by the ABC, why such errors keep occurring and how he will rectify the situation… [W]hether it is false claims that our navy tortured asylum-seekers, orchestrated campaigns with animal rights activists to shut down an export industry or the ignoring of important scientific stories about a ***hiatus in global warming, it is passing strange that the ABC’s major transgressions seem always to reflect a Green-Left agenda…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/abcs-mark-scott-misses-the-point-in-defending-qa-indefensible/story-fn8qlm5e-1227417006363?sv=81585e373a1f49983acfeb9b07825547
31
Daily Mail, SBS & other MSM are only carrying the pathetic AAP piece i posted at 9News link re the motion calling for an examination of the “scientific evidence” for AGW.
amazing AAP explained nothing about the motion whatsoever.
Michelle Grattan includes the detail but, probably correctly, states it was “shunted off”:
27 June: The Conversation: Michelle Grattan: Prime Minister’s sister spruiks gay marriage at Liberal moderates’ dinner
The party managed to keep the council uncontroversial when a potentially contentious motion on climate change, put up from the federal regional and rural committee, was ***shunted off without substantive debate.
The motion was to urge the government to establish a parliamentary committee to “examine the scientific evidence that underpins the man made global warming theory and investigate the reasons for the failure of computer models, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and prominent individuals to predict, amongst other things, the pause in global warming this century”. It also said that in light of the uncertainty around the issue, Australia should not sign any binding agreements at the United Nations climate change conference in Paris this year.
Victorian President Michael Kroger moved successfully to refer the motion to the party’s standing committee on policy, saying it involved ***a lot of “very important issues”…
http://theconversation.com/prime-ministers-sister-spruiks-gay-marriage-at-liberal-moderates-dinner-43972
21
OT and apologies but, well it’s been a long week……By the time the World reaches the Progressive flambé of Paris, where escargot are fast but the tongs and forks faster, there will I guarantee be universal agreement among the comfortably settled that there is and was no ‘pause’, that the anthropogenic CO2 climate forcing signal is clearly distinguishable from natural ‘noise’, that the tropics hot spot has crystallized, that warming of the Ocean deeps is criminally blatant and we are in the grips of irrefutable, uncontrolled runaway climate change®, accompanied by the AMA / WHO predicted pestilence and disease, and…all nicely frothed off with team UN/Vatican who will breathlessly advise us that due to The Almighty’s infinite mercy the solar quietening has spared us…..just for the moment.
Never has The World required a rational counterpoint or a distraction at the very least equal to if not greater than this kollectiv insanity.
It has been a trying week in the depths of a record winter in the South Island of NZ accompanied to the strains of government joy at procuring a desirable $11M New York apartment, presumably to continue to facilitate NZ – UN cosiness.
Perhaps next week will be better.
Certainly, we may have hope, a damn sight more hope methinks than the slow moving escargot are likely to muster in the Parisian brasseries this winter.
51
‘…in the depths of a record winter in the South Island…’
Kiwis are unlucky in that regard, apparently CO2 doesn’t increase temperatures in the land of the long white cloud.
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2015/06/new-kiwi-study-warming-not-linked-to-co2/
20
I saw that excellent contribution by Gary Kerkin, a scientist member of the NZ Climate Science Coalition. I hope it finds its way past the weather acolytes surrounding the Minister of Climate Change.
00
Eucla is on the coast, so comparing the temperature there to temperatures inland may not work.
How much distance separates the two locations you have used for comparison?
44
Just checking the details. There are some issues with the analysis – Eucla is not actually in the Great Victoria Desert, it is a long way south. Plus is it near the coast which puts it under the influence of coastal conditions.
Eucla is BOM station 11003. Stats for December 1931:
Monthly average max: 23.9C
Monthly average min: 14.3C
Monthly rainfall: 0.0 mm (I was wondering about clouds during the month).
35
Harry you are mixing up different comparisons. Lets focus on just one of them. so forget the Victoria desert for now and Focus on Eucla.
The maps have Eucla at greater than 24 degrees C for the mean. CDO has 23.9.
53
Siliggy,
I had to admit your article is confusing, I was have trouble seeing your point.
You said this:
“At Eucla, not known for it’s mild summer weather, both maps show a cool average and highest max of 24 to 27 degrees C.”
That average for Eucla is correct – it DOES have mild summer weather on average compared to the Great Victorian Desert.
11
Thats a good start Harry. Once you admit you have a problem you can begin to deal with it.
Eucla is best known for having the Highest temperature ever recorded in a Stevenson screen in Western Australia.
According to the BoM divisional meteorologist here.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/32950587
and here
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/37716308
The best way to pretend away stuff like that would be to confuse real weather with averages.
Since then the installation date of the stevenson screen seems to have been adjusted twice. CDO starts at 1926 but the ACORN documentation says 1913.
10
Siliggy.
Again I cannot follow your reasoning.
What is the relevance of that hot day in Eucla to your article? A hot day is good for a headline or two, but it is the average temperature that is more relevant.
I still think you are trying to imply that Eucla is hotter than the averages from AWAP. But you have not provided any evidence yet – what I suggest you do is develop your own climatology for Eucla then compare it to AWAP, this is preferable to cherry-picking hot days.
11
“Again I cannot follow your reasoning.”
Odd you are the only one here having that problem.
“What is the relevance of that hot day in Eucla to your article?”
It was part of a hot month with at least three heatwaves in the area that do show on the AWAP maps. This show that the AWAP trend is not accurate for at least that month over a very wide area.
“I still think you are trying to imply that Eucla is hotter than the averages from AWAP.” No not at all It appears to have been both hotter and colder ther than is shown on the daily maps. So if anything I am saying it was more extreme. It may be hotter or cooler on average too. The Bom data is so contradictory and incomplete, it is best to call it unknown. The maps for the whole huge area should be grey and removed from any trend calculations.
11
Siliggy,
Now you are claiming to have surveyed everyone who reads this forum…
Yes, some hot days in Eucla in Dec 1931 most likely. And there could have been some cool days as well, did you got and check the newspaper articles for any evidence of that? From what you have presented you are just cherry-picking hot days.
No, it does not “show that the AWAP trend is not accurate for at least that month over a very wide area.”. And a trend? What trend are you referring to?
I will make the point again the contradiction in the maps may have been caused by the availability of monthly averages and a lack of daily measurements – working out daily extremes in a month is going to be difficult if you are lacking the daily data. Ask the BOM, perhaps they can shed some light on it.
You are now extrapolating the Eucla data to a “whole huge area” – what justification do you have for doing that? Did the BOM tell you that was the case?
And do you really believe they input the maps into working out trends? I would have thought the BOM used their data tables for that.
I am calling it a day on this discussion. I know where you are attempting to go, you are trying discredit the BOM and the temperature trends they calculate. You have failed.
02
One at a time so that you find it difficult to confuse. So still at Eucla and ignoring the desert.
The maps have Eucla under 27 for the highest maximum, Acorn shows 36.4. Do you think that adjustment is enough when the newspapers show 42.8(109 F)during that heatwave?
63
Siliggy,
“Acorn shows 36.4”
So what? In your article you said the maps were drawn using AWAP – AWAP is a different dataset. The AWAP data from CDO does not give the daily temps for that station at that time, only the monthly average.
The BOM will have difficulty adjusting data they do not have.
Anyway why speculate? You don’t know the answer, I don’t know the answer. The BOM gives contact details for enquiries.
11
If ACORN only shows 36.4 then the ACORN adjustment has not corrected the cooling of the past done in the AWAP data enough. Obviously any claim that ACORN has adjusted the past up would be very very misleading.
You did not answer the question Harry.
I am trying hard to answer your questions. Please do the same for me and answer it.
11
Siliggy.
Do you really want me to answer a rhetorical question – odd.
And then you state your assumption that the BOM has cooled AWAP as fact – you don’t know that. I pointed out before that missing data can drop an average, raise an average or leave it the same.
I really cannot second-guess the BOM. You cannot second-guess the BOM either. Email them and ask.
11
With regards to the mapping, it is hard to say as the “anomaly” is close the edge of the shaded region.
It is hard to say unless the highest maximum and average maximum data for the month can be shown – it is possible the data is incomplete and extrapolation was done to compensate. You will have to ask the BOM.
35
Harry now lets focus on a different single area. This time Cook. Cook is a very very long way inland, away from the coast or any other source of confusion.
The “bureau” said it was 112 F (44.4 C) which is not the colour used on the “highest maximum” map at Cook is it?
43
Siliggy,
I did not look at Cook, I will later if I have time.
01
Siliggy,
The same thing applies to Cook – no daily data that I can find. I cannot find any ACORN data, either.
Again you cannot compare Cook to Eucla, eg say it is warm in Cook therefore it is warm in Eucla. Cook is 185km from Eucla and more inland.
11
Harry you say
“it is possible the data is incomplete and extrapolation was done to compensate.”
The data was not in as incomplete at the time. Those temperatures came from the BoM to get into the newspapers.
You then say. “You will have to ask the BOM.”
NO NOI NO. They will have to explain why they lost them without being asked!!!
42
Siliggy,
You are making assumptions about the record keeping. Like I said earlier AWAP (I assume it is AWAP) does not contain the daily record for that station at that time. They might have lost them, did not put them in the archives or whatever – it was 1931!
Did the measurement in the paper come from the BOM, have you confirmed this statement? If you look closely, the report is from SA even though Eucla is in WA. The comment from the paper of “shade temperature” is a bit puzzling, all Stevenson Screen measurements are shade temperatures.
Or maybe they thought the records were unreliable when they built AWAP – who knows we are guessing. You should ask the BOM.
11
“You are making assumptions” “(I assume it is AWAP)”
Before you critise me for making asuptions why not check and see if the AWAP average for that month agrees with the CDO, If it does not then the average has been calulated twice has it not?
10
Siliggy,
I think the CDO is AWAP – I was using the references you gave in your article. Anyway I have read most of the scientific paper I found, so I now know a bit more than I knew yesterday. It looks like AWAP is used for the maps, or at least AWAP is the source for the gridded data.
11
I think the CDO is AWAP.
People will marvel for years about why you thought 23.9 was between 24 and 27.
12
Siliggy.
23.9 rounded up is 24.
If you want a 0.1 precision on the map, I suggest you download the gridded data and redraw it.
01
A solution did occur to me while I was thinking about an unrelated problem.
Have a look at this logic and see what you think.
The issue appears to be a mismatch between the monthly highest maximum temperature map, and the monthly average maximum temperature map.
A question was asked, how can you have an average higher than the highest maximum?
The answer is you can, if there is missing daily data. This has already been shown to be true by the author of the OP.
The average map was drawn (probably automatically) using the monthly average data. The highest map was drawn using the daily data. The fact that not all the daily data is available has lead to a situation where the average appears greater than the highest – this will happen when a number of the missing days were a lot higher than average.
So this may have occurred because the BOM does not attempt to compensate for some internal inconsistencies in it’s data. I can understand this, why bother when it comes to drawing the maps, they are only a guide anyway.
12
There seems to be a fail in the logic at quite a few points there Harry.
EG: The average map was drawn (probably automatically) using the monthly average data.
The CDO version of monthly average data does not agree with the map. How does an automatic disagreement occur?
11
Siliggy.
I do not see any mismatch between the map and the average monthly data from the CDO.
You yourself say in your article “Alternatively you could look at the AWAP map of average temperature and see the yellow colour for the range 24 to 27 degrees C here. That’s OK.”
What do you mean by your question “How does an automatic disagreement occur?” I did not mention any “automatic disagreement”.
12
Harry you say “The average map was drawn (probably automatically) using the monthly average data.” but the colour does not match the monthly data does it?
If you still can’t see that, I suggest the truth is that you won’t see that because you don’t want to see that.
You do not want to admit the data is all self contradictory so you try to fool yourself and confuse others. Your efforts to do this are helping people who can understand to see the massive effort people like you will put into preventing errors from being fixed.
Keep up the good work! You are exposing yourself!
30
I cannot understand the point you are making with the old newspaper articles.
The average maximum temp 23.9C for Eucla in Dec 1931 is correct – that is what the average temperature is. It does get some hot days when the wind blows from the Great Victoria Desert.
If you are concerned about missing daily data from Dec 1931, retry the analysis for other years when there is more data available.
35
“I cannot understand the point you are making with the old newspaper articles.”
Perhaps it would make sense if you realise that those are what the BoM said at the time so the condtradictions are NOT between newspapers but between what the BOM said and what the BoM said.
63
Siliggy,
Lest Harry get more confused than he already is . . .
I understood you, you understood you, and everybody else here understood you, both in the O/P and again now in this comment to Harry. Harry, on the other hand, didn’t understand you then and probably won’t, can’t, or will refuse to understand you now.
Abe
42
JAG. Yes that is clearer thankyou. How clear it needs to be before some will stop attempting to defend it is getting entertaining.
21
Just-a-guy,
back in your box. I am trying to have a discussion with the author of the article.
13
Siliggy,
refer to my other comment about record keeping.
Maybe in time the BOM will recover more records (they have appeared to have done that for ACORN).
But will they retrospectively fix up AWAP – I don’t know.
11
“But will they retrospectively fix up AWAP – I don’t know.”
Good to see you agree it needs to be fixed. My whole aim with this big tease at them is to get it fixed. I hope you share that desire.
10
Siliggy,
I think your aim is to discredit the BOM to suit some agenda you have about global warming. And to do this you have engaged in red herrings, cherry-picking and nitpicking. Oh and to promote your youtube videos.
11
“I think your aim is to discredit the BOM to suit some agenda you have about global warming.”
The opposite is true. I want these problems fixed. While you have smuggly said I should write to them, I did write in to the review panel and Bob Baldwin. Many others here know that and have read the letter months ago. There were many letters from many authors. Like most people who spot the diverse and serious problems with the BoM ACORN etc and tell them about it, I got no reply!
The agenda is to get them to fix it! Promoting videos and links to Bird death documentation is all part of that agenda. Do you want it fixed or not?
I think not.
10
Harry Twinotter,
If we’re looking for the missing data for the month of December in 1931, why would we look for it in the data from other years?
Oh, wait, I see now. You already told us why. Because those other years have more data! 😮
You mean like the guy whose looking for his lost keys under the streetlight even thoug he knows he dropped them down the street where it’s dark because there’s more light under the lamp!
You can’t make this $H!t up!
Abe
41
Just-a-guy,
But I will point this out. Why is 1931 so important? Data is missing, data is probably missing for other stations too. But at other times the data is not missing.
It’s cherry-picking to concentrate on just some parts.
11
Harry why don’t you do this little exercise. Get the data from the three sites i mentioned above to Ian Hill and compare them to see how accurate the data is at Eucla during “other times”.
10
Siliggy,
I will leave you to do your own homework – I have already found what I wanted to know.
11
“I have already found what I wanted to know.”
Many here will be wondering if you are able to ever find what you do not want to know.
20
Harry,
Your comprehension of the headline story on this post is amazing.
Keep up the good work.
In other news, historical temperature records released from BoM indicate Australia’s minimum temperatures higher than maximum temperatures during the 1930’s.
62
Indeed. I reminds me of a quote I heard once, about a flat in London, “It was one of those flats that, when you turned on the light, it got darker”.
70
James Bradley,
the author of the OP does compare Eucla to the Great Victoria Desert – he says so. He is trying to say Eucla was warmer than reported in AWAP because the Great Victoria Desert was warm.
My argument is the average for Eucla for December 1931 looks about right as it is close to the average in other years.
AWAP does not have daily data for December 1931 so no-one can know for sure. If the missing data is recovered the average might go up, might go down or it MIGHT STAY THE SAME. Someone appears to have recorded the average at the time, why assume they made an error?
01
“the author of the OP does compare Eucla to the Great Victoria Desert – he says so.”
Harry lets have a close look at what was said.
“If for example you were interested in the maximum temperature around the Great Victoria Desert, along the border of South Australia and Western Australia,
That is AROUND not IN. Can you see the difference?
22
Siliggy.
Please. “around the Great Victoria Desert”. Eucla is not even close.
I will let any other readers make their own judgement – just why was Eucla and the Great Victoria Desert put together in the same article?
11
““around the Great Victoria Desert”. Eucla is not even close.”
Correct thats it! Now you are beginning to understand that we are looking at a big area where nothing is close. Also you are close to admiting that the AWAP maps cannot be accurate with such data sparseness and the ACORN data idea is by your own reasoning futile and flawed.
ACORN is Crap!
10
Harry Twinotter,
In this article, Eucla is not being compared to the temperatures inland. Eucla is being provided as an example of a place where data is missing in the BoM record but should not be missing.
Abe
32
Hey guys,
I think summer is a little early this year, I can’t hear anything but crickets.
11
“Dancing with the Data”
I really enjoyed this article for many reasons, but most of all the guest article and videos.
Lance did a great job revealing the “Enron accounting” like differences in the “on the day” recorded temperatures and then the subsequent BoM fabrications.
Anyway two quotes that I enjoyed (Jo and Lance respectively)
“There are a half million square kilometers in this map here and almost no thermometers”
If however all you need is an accurate report on the heat of that summer, the best way is to ask a dead parrot here.
I was thinking that maybe it is time to ask that the Government climate database be digitally signed so that we know where it has been so to speak.
Original data should be identified by an authenticated digital certificate and an MD5 assigned also, the BoM version should be marked accordingly “well anything they wish, but fiction would a good label”, just as long as we know which one to select and to avoid the one BoM have tampered with.
In the future this will become more important as we try to reproduce the results from various scientific papers.
41
I wonder if BOM has the very important figure for overall homogenized temperature of Australia? It is after all just so very important to formulate this to ensure the even more important average (adjusted and homogenized) temperature indicating number can been computed for the whole planet to many very important decimal places of precision.
Compared to the the global temperature numbers, it’s obvious that localities where humans, animals, plants and all the other flora and fauna live, is so unimportant when considering climate. On balance the global temperature number tells us so much more than increasing local sea-ice areas, or expanding deserts, or animal migration changes, or any other mere local variations could ever indicate when it comes to changing climate.
So stop all this silly fretting about your local difficulty because as the UN elites knows, it’s only the big blurry global picture that really matter.
/sarcoff.
21
Just a another example of data manipulation from the wonderful wacky world of Will Steffen of the late and unlamented Australian Climate Commission.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/light-rail-poll-what-do-the-numbers-really-say-20150625-ghwcdk.html
11
Lance, a brilliant piece of investigation – congratulations. It raises some very serious questions. This is very far from the only such report there are many similar examples involving many other major organisations. The results are too obvious, too blatant and too widespread to be just errors, they amount to deliberate tampering with historical data – deliberate rewriting of history. That’s beyond mere group think or bias, major organisations would appear to be knowingly falsifying data – one of the most serious “scientific crimes” scientists can do. The question is WHY.
Is it simply that they are so passionate they are making things up until the “right” real data comes along or is there an underlying agenda. So many organisations are involved, so widely dispersed and they are all just driven by passionate belief? We would be remiss if we did not at least consider an underlying agenda.
10
OK, so I am late to this particular debate, but back to the topic:
the method and the magnitude of the BOM temperature series corrections is a national scandal, which apart from invalidating the Australian temperature data, has legal implications for BOM employees and senior managers. Where are the FOI claims and litigation foundations who should be taking them on??
However, I disagree with other commentators in that I think there is a legitimate role for data series corrections. But I believe that for any temperature series adjustment there should be:
1. a documented reason for the adjustment (eg site shift or recording gap)
2. a detailed record of the adjustment, and how it was calculated and applied
3. all adjustments are subject to further review and modification if necessary
If only these sorts of controls were followed, the Australian BOM, NZ NIWA and UK Met (let alone the US agencies) would all be in a much better place, and not all under deep suspicion for their politically biased “science”.
31
DaveR @ # 37
1 / They Don’t
2 / They Can’t
3 / They Won’t
21
another quality post that warrants a front page headline or two given the amount of taxpayer money spent on this scam. well done to the author and jo for once again showing homogenization for what it really is,mathturbation.
21