Suppose we give billions to the bureaucratic geniuses in Paris. Suppose they are right about how global warming works (though we know they are not). What do we get for all that money?
Combined, all plans, carried out, successful best case, at a cost of hundreds of trillions + : 0.17°C
More realistic more pessimistic case: 0.05°C
If the infra-red reroutes through the atmosphere and climate sensitivity has been overestimated by 5 – 10 fold: 0.02°C
The UN wants us to spend $89 trillion by 2030 to “green up” everything. For that we hope in theory, if we’re lucky to get a reduction of one sixth of a degree 70 years later. Rush, Rush, buy that plan today! Order two, and don’t count the dead.
The real reduction, using the best empirical data, and a corrected basic model, is more likely to be in the order of one thousandth of a degree 9 decades from now.
Abstract
This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030,
using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained
throughout the century, the impacts are generally small. The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction
in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100. The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C. The EU 20-20 policy has
an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C. All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and
the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce
global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100. These impact estimates are robust to different calibrations of climate
sensitivity, carbon cycling and different climate scenarios. Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the
climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades.
REFERENCE
Lomborg, B (2015) Impact of current climate proposals, Copenhagen Consensus Centre. Global Policy (2015) doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12295
* Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) (UN COP 21 in Paris)
But Jo, you and I both know that Paris will be an “evidence free zone”. No matter what reality says, the gravy train rolls on and the wealth redistribution continues (of course with the “cream” taken off the top for the UN and its minions).
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And global CO2 emissions keep climbing rapidly 🙂
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Its getting to point where I’m thinking “if only I’d taken the blue pill”……..
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Why spend a cent to “green up” everything when all the extra CO2 is greening up the whole bloody planet for free, just for the hell of it, cos that’s what Gaia does when she gets on a roll?
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You miss the point. When they talk about ‘greening up’ they mean moving the green backs from the people to the pockets of the merchant bankers.
If, and it is a very big if, they wanted to ‘green up’ the planet they would spend a quarter of that money building coal fired power stations in the developing countries and then another quarter to provide the infrastructure to get that power to the peoples homes. Then they would see the ‘greening up’ of the planet and the advance of the people – it would also cut down, or eliminate, the mass economic migration we are seeing today.
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Ivan, our money. What is ‘ours’ is the debt which is used to create that money. Almost all money is created out of debt.
“Suppose we give billions to the bureaucratic geniuses in Paris. Suppose they are right about how global warming works (though we know they are not). What do we get for all that money?”
Money comes into existence as debt and therefore the sentence in the quote should read, ‘What do we get for all that debt’ since money is created as debt in our debt based money system.
There is a good animated doco about how money is created MONEY AS DEBT 3, THE TRUTH ABOUT MONEY
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COP21 is the Offertory. They’re passing the plate around to load the UNFCC Green Climate Fund. Nothing more. It’s the winding up of eco-marxist wealth redistribution and your Australian Government appears heartily behind it. “Turnbull government weighs increasing contribution to Green Climate Fund.”
What happens if one takes the red and blue pills together? Do you just get sick?
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Manfred, there are good examples of what a technocratic system of governance looks like during the time of Galileo for instance. The flat earth system of keeping people in check is a good one.
The flat earth system will give as an indication of what to expect when the red and blue pill are taken together.
00
Quoting Overseasinsider – “Its getting to point where I’m thinking if only I’d taken the blue pill”.
Well Charlie, who has just touched down in Oz, has blue blood. He will say “No Global Cooling on planet Earth” [BUT COOLING IS BLUE ISN’T IT?] and instead Charlie will say to the MSM – “out of control Global Warming on planet Earth” [BUT THAT IS RED ISN’T IT?]. The Prince has it all wrong it seems – his belief in AGW doesn’t tally with his bloodline. The Pope on the other hand always dresses in RED & white so we can all see why he is a “Warmist”.
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The treaty of Versailles, almost 100 years ago demanded reparations be paid for damages of WW1. Many consider this the precursor to WW2. The likelihood of the Paris Treaty’s aspirations seriously destabilizing the politics of the entire globe is, in my view, much greater than any perceived benefits.
What is the warming due to WW3? You don’t need a computer model.
What are the motives of these fools?
Mr Gore’s “insurance policy” is a recipe for disaster-dead certainty.
30
I wonder how much of the 100 billion,that the UN requires from us “Plebs”will find its way to the “Poor”countries.Very little I suspect.
20
You don’t expect them to work for nothing do you? What save the world and all of us from frying and no retribution?…..
00
Only $89 Trillion for 0.16C. I’m tempted!
Are they going to sweeten the deal with a set of steak knives?
Do I have to call now or is it safe to wait until my partner comes home?
If I pay for it now but see a better planet saving offer next week can I get my money back?
If I don’t like my new green planet before two thousand years has elasped can I return it for a full refund?
Do you check credit history before hitting my card with the full eighty nine (thousand) yards?
Etc
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You only need crazy amounts of money if you aren’t driving for a solution. I mean, think about it … if the warming is stalled, or, Gaia forbid, reversed… then the funding might stop. Can’t have that. And we certainly can’t use a common sense engineering solution which would only cost a few billion at most:
http://www.intellectualventureslab.com/assets_lab/Stratoshield-white-paper-300dpi.pdf
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Hey, a decent set of steak knives for everyone.
That wouldn’t be cheap. !!
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Any vegans out there, can I have yours as well, please?
Need those extra for when I have BBQ’s 🙂
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But wait, there’s more !
You also get this incredible knife that you can cut your shoes in half with and…….
A FREE CHOOK!
What a bargin !
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bargain
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Yeah – but I want to know if the delivery fee is refundable?
That’s where all these bloody schemes get you in the end – you return for a full refund EXCEPT the freight.
Damned SHYSTERS!!
Cheers,
🙂 🙂 🙂
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Thanks for all your work on this David and Jo. Fantastic.
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Wow what a deal, do we get the steak knives thrown in as well?…. oh sorry we can just pull the ones out of backs and use them to eat the green eggs and ham….forgot the wafer too.
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You also get an indulgence from Gaia. No doubt your garden will flourish as a result. Then again, it might be the extra CO2.
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David, your work is verified by the fact that there hasn’t been any warming in Rurall South Eastern Australia in 120 years, as revealed by Kens work and others.
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As much as I have suggested to others in my milieu.Some places have warmed- some have cooled,and some have been constant.AGW does not bear serious scrutiny;CO2 based warming is refuted by anyone with a half brain. Twits abound.
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Despite the very good work by yourselves and others the AGW hypothesis and associated collaries continues due to the enormous momentum of the politics and those convinced with the various doomsday scenarios. Hopefully, when the time comes to sign on the dotted line there will be some who will not, perhaps China, Russia and India, and that is the only forlorn hope of reason and sanity.
The next step will be after they have signed and there is no global warming will be that they will take the credit for stopping it. I guess that levels of carbon dioxide will continue to rise irrespective of the treaties to limit it since it is predomiantly natural in origin and more related to ocean temperatures than anything else.
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“…I guess that levels of carbon dioxide will continue to rise irrespective of the treaties to limit it since it is predomiantly natural in origin and more related to ocean temperatures than anything else…..”
………………..
Why would you think that when you have curve fitting going for you?
So they pick and choose the data not affected by local photosynthesis upslope wind and volcanic emissions downslope wind. What a smorgasboard of readings they must have to choose from!
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It is always thus in climate ‘science’. The data must fit the hypothesis not the other way round as in normal science and engineering.
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A claim that is as unlikely as saying UN defined “climate change” sorted.
To my knowledge no one, not one country or politician asked what is and where lies the formal ‘end point’ to this charade of eco-alarmism. What UN citeria lie in place that describe the goals and formal terms for conclusion of this UNFCCC “project?”
It’s certainly not 270ppm!
20
“and China INDC 0.048°C”
hey, wait there.
China is planning to maybe double their CO2 emissions.
Ohh, I see, that’s must be a PLUS number. ! 🙂
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“Magic” – the art of producing illusions by sleight of hand
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Jo I can top that. The RS and NAS report tells us that we could stop all co2 emissions today and we still wouldn’t reduce co2 levels or temp for thousands of years. So how many thousands of trillions $ would this cost? And nothing to show for it after many thousands of years.
https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-evidence-causes/question-20/
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‘The current CO2-induced warming of Earth is therefore essentially irreversible on human timescales.’
Clearly the Klimatariat has no shame, so I refuse to support the notion that CO2 causes a little warming.
30
I hope this is sufficiently off-topic for you in Australia:
TPP’s clauses that let Australia be sued are weapons of legal destruction, says lawyer
Leading arbitration lawyer says there are critical loopholes in the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s investment chapter that leave Australia wide open
9 Nov 2015
…This is where things get a little technical. Essentially, an MFN clause is tantamount to a classic wipeout move. It would enable foreign corporations from TPP states to make a claim against Australia based on the ISDS provisions in any other trade deal Australia has signed, no matter which country it was signed with. That means it does not matter how carefully the TPP is drafted: foreign investors can cherrypick another treaty Australia has signed, and sue the Australian government based on the provisions included in that treaty. Kahale has described MFN as “a dangerous provision to be avoided by treaty drafters whenever possible” because it can turn one bad treaty into protections “never imagined for virtually an entire world of investors”.
Including an MFN clause in the TPP was a “major mistake”, Kahale argues, and another reason Australia is still wide open to being sued for legislating to protect the environment.
If you are curious about what this might look like, take Germany, for example. The German government has had two claims brought against it by the same corporation, Vattenfall, a Swedish energy company. TPP’s clauses that let Australia be sued are weapons of legal destruction, says lawyer
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
9 Nov 2015 Canadians have been “outfoxed” in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement and will now be forever bound by a deal harmful for innovation, Jim Balsillie, former co-CEO of Research In Motion (BlackBerry Ltd.), has said, after studying the fine print.
Balsillie, who helped turn BlackBerry into a global player and is on the list of 100 richest Canadians, predicted that TPP will cost Canada hundreds of billions of dollars, lamenting that its provisions on intellectual property will deal a blow to the future Canadian innovators. https://www.rt.com/news/321254-canada-tpp-losses-innovation/
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Well, this Australian government won’t be contributing to this grand scam. A token two hundred million over four years from our foreign aid budget is it!
30
With Turdbull and Bishop in charge, don’t bet on it Scaper!
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It was finally announced in the co-party room meeting, today. There is a report up on it at The Australian web site.
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Here’s a part copy and paste of the report.
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Fair enough, but what of the rumor that Julie wants an Australian seat on the Green Climate Fund?
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Can’t confirm or deny that. A quick Google search traces where this rumour came from. The Guardian, the SMH and the ABC.
I’m sceptical…to be polite.
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Scaper,
You mean to tell me that you still trust your “mate”, Greg Hunt? IMHO, he will sell us out for his globalist delusion quicker than you can blink. Meanwhile, Lady Macbeth, aka Malcolm Turnbull, has usurped the throne for one purpose only, to hitch our bandwagon to an ETS scheme at the Paris Treason Festival, whether we like it or not.
They are feeding you a line, scaper, or else alternatively you are feeding one to us. This is a bipartisan sell out of the national interests by people who should be adorning the nearest yardarm, in a figurative sense at the very least.
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Thanks for the information scaper, it’s what might be signed in addition at Paris that gets people worried, with that amount of zealots in one place the green euphoric atmosphere could easily get some drunk with power making reckless decisions without proper consultation.
I was a bit strong with the comments a while back in response to your LNP posts that might have come across as a personal slight, it wasn’t I was just fed up with the softly softly approach to ridding us of the green menace, so apologies if you were taken aback.
Commenters should remember scaper is the messenger and he’s not one we want to shoot. (metaphorically speaking of course)
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What you have to do is connect the the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement (See Dinn’s Comment) with the vague promises made at the Paris-ite Feast.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership provides the TEETH allowing greenies to sue over any clause inserted in ANY treaty. Remember Bill Gates is a greenie with a corporation so is Soros and Buffett among others.
They are dragging us into a world government and complete loss of sovereignty via these trade agreements.
Also see Vernon Coleman: Was Britain Taken Into the EU Illegally
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If the left wing media is selling the yarn, it might have substance.
With a change in leadership style they will inform the assembled delegates that Australia will do more in the future.
In this hothouse environment verbal promises are meaningless, still they will pay lip service and ingratiate themselves for the good of the planet and the grandchildren.
The monk should have sacked Hunt, he was obviously biased. I assume it was a factional thing?
50
”pledged to stand by Tony Abbott’s greenhouse emissions target”
Sorry Scaper, you should be able to see right through that.
This is a clear admission the betrayers intend to sign in Paris. Tony Abbott said “Australia would not tolerate socialism masquerading as environmentalism”. The 200 million was to be a redirection of existing monies for foreign aid to Australian selected developing nation programs that had a clear environmental benefit (ie: not CO2 nonsense). Turnbull and Bishop intend to sign in Paris. They will hand these monies to UN control, the equivalent of extra-sovereign taxation. This is adding insult to injury. We already lost around 2 billion to the UN Klimate Kleptocrats during the Gillardio-Kruddulence era.
There is no need for Lord Bouncy Waffle or Bishop the Betrayer to get on that plane. There is nothing to negotiate. There is no binding agreement with UN enforced penalty clauses we need to sign. If they step one foot on that plane, they have betrayed Science and Australia.
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Yes, Konrad.
The fix is in.
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I fear,you are correct,Konrad.
00
I will not be surprised if they made this announcement now, so that when they get to Paris, they can announce that they will sign up to whatever idiotic scheme is on offer. That way the Member for Goldman Sachs, and the Shifty Bishop can look like they were won-over by the force of the arguments put to them.
It will do wonders for the opinion polls, make Shonky Shorten look even more useless than he is, will shut the Greens up momentarily, and they still have time before the next election to try to win back the LNP voters whose rate and volume of departure will no doubt be best described as haemorrhagic.
I am surely not alone in thinking that this event in Paris is just a nice location for a series of press releases which have already been written and approved…?
30
scaper,
Don’t trust turnbull & bishop……
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I don’t trust Turnbull or Bishop, but I do trust scaper … scaper’s intel has proven to be reliable in the past.
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I’ll second that.
40
$89,000,000,000.00
Wow!
I could buy a lot of the world with that.
Anyone want to come live with me?
Let’s call it iloveco2
No Greenies or Socialists allowed.
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Well we are happy to give you a thousand times more!
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Making these plans is silly.
Calculating the near zero impact seems silly. (Will the numbers be checked? Why not?]
The big party in Paris is silly, a waste, and massive better alternatives foregone.
We still have copper wires running to our house giving us a POTS (plain old telephone system). New users of phones find this ancient history. I found this a few days ago:
from Wikipedia:
Peak Copper
In 1924, noted geologist and copper-mining expert Ira Joralemon warned:
“… the age of electricity and of copper will be short. At the intense rate of production that must come, the copper supply of the world will last hardly a score of years. … Our civilization based on electrical power will dwindle and die.”
2100 is not going to be like anyone thinks it will be.
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Ah yes! Peak Copper.
Right about the time that Francisco d’Anconia bankrupted the family business.
(Tony in an aside to self – I wonder how many will know this without looking it up?)
Tony.
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Yes, nearly finished reading ‘Atlas Shrugged’. I’ve stuck near the end with Galt’s endless broadcast!
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Yes, nearly finished reading ‘Atlas Shrugged’. I’ve stuck near the end with Galt’s endless broadcast!
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Sorry…accidental repeat…lost WiFi and thought comment hadn’t gone….rats!
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For $89 trillion we could build a giant world cooling refrigerator to keep the temperature at whatever level we want!!Lol!!! I would laugh if it wasn’t so tragic….
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A relevant post on Andrew Bolt today……..
No point to Paris :-
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/no_point_to_paris/
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This is very concerning………
Are Aussie Politicians Plotting to Degrade Democratic Choice on Carbon (DIOXIDE – PLANT FOOD) Pricing?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/07/are-aussie-politicians-plot-to-degrade-democratic-choice-on-carbon-pricing/
So basically there is collusion between the main political parties to that Australians will not have a choice whether to have a PLANT FOOD tax or not.
Very democratic……NOT !
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“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution… democracy is a poor political system for fighting global warming. Communist China is the best model.“ — Christiana Figueres, disciple of Al Gore, and Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention
So the totalitarians are now out of the closet as they slam shut the door on the
trapERRrrr treaties they are catching us in.Once in place we will be slowly bled dry of all our wealth. The World Trade Organization was a major start. The IMF shows the result ” In many countries the distribution of income has become more unequal, and the top earners’ share of income in particular has risen dramatically. In the United States the share of the top 1 percent has close to tripled over the past three decades, now accounting for about 20 percent of total U.S. income” The USA went from 24% of the labor force in manufacturing jobs (wealth building) to less than 9% and now the USA has a real unemployment rate of about 24% according to John Williams.(Shadowstats)
I do not see any improvement ahead for the middle class.
Funny isn’t it how the ‘affluent’ middle class is always the target and never the jet setting elite like Bill Gates or Al Gore?
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gai
The latest idea from the Left is borderless states. I note Soros mentioned it about one month ago. A Lefty academic in NZ is saying in recent days that the Left has always supported borderless states so we can have a truly egalitarian world. It all sounds like they are subtly trying to build support for the UN controlled “one world government” idea. ( I have never heard of this borderless state fantasy idea before –yes in recent years of I’ve heard of the “one world government” concept)
But these guys don’t understand history if they think this will work –all they have to do is look at the Middle East at the moment.
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Ross, Check this out. It explains where the Progressives are coming from. Al Gore has been a big fan and it is why Bill Clinton gave away US jobs and technology to China and India.
Dale C. Copeland, “Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations” International Security, Vol. 20, no.4 (Spring 1996)
You see Interdependence mentioned here too: Pascal Lamy: Whither Globalization? and in the IMF article I linked to further up thread.
Convergence, Interdependence, and Divergence
Finance & Development, September 2012, Vol. 49, No. 3
(wwwDOT)imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/09/dervis.htm
And it is making it into our schools
Lesson Plan
Web of Interdependence
(wwwDOT)scholastic.com/teachers/lesson-plan/web-interdependence
The problem is if the Conservatives are right and the Progressives are wrong, we just handed China all our weapons and industry while stripping us of the same. (The USA has lost most of it’s manufacturing) Unfortunately I am sure China has no plans to be ‘interdependent’ or to be anything but the top dog.
David Archibald goes into this in his article:
China Picks at the Scab to Keep the Wound Fresh
(wwwDOT)americanthinker.com/articles/2014/04/china_picks_at_the_scab_to_keep_the_wound_fresh.html
The Chinese have a hundred years of resentment built up.
Lessons of history: China’s century of humiliation
The repercussions of British opportunism in China during the Opium Wars can be felt in geopolitics even today
m(DOT)gulfnews.com/opinion/off-the-cuff/lessons-of-history-china-s-century-of-humiliation-1.884742
This is a subject that hasn’t been discussed much but is very very dangerous if it backfires.
40
Call me an ‘old man’, like PM Talkbull did, but I remember when …
… before they moved the goal post, and 2070 was the target …
environment.gov.au; the 2006 Australian State of the Environment Committee, 2006
“Simulations by global climate models – of future temperature changes due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations—suggest a rise of 0.4 to 2.0°C by 2030 across much of Australia (CSIRO 2001, Lindesay 2003).
By 2070, temperatures are expected to be between 1.0 and 6.0°C higher than in 1990 (Figure 4).
The largest increases are projected to occur in summer.
Projected changes in regional rainfall are spatially and seasonally variable.
Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, most of the climate models that have been used so far have simulated decreased rainfall in southern and eastern Australia in winter and spring (CSIRO 2001, Whetton and Suppiah 2003).
Increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, and any further declines in potential evaporation, would tend to reduce the impact of any reduction in rainfall on plant growth (Howden2002).”
Need more? ‘oogle, (199,000 results (0.64 seconds))
. . .
Hear that? That is the sound of goal posts moving again …
and it’s worse than we first thought.
.
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Actually, if you are an CAGW sceptic, as are 75% of former coalition voters, Turnbull is on record as calling you a “Hitler appeaser”.
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‘…decreased rainfall in southern and eastern Australia in winter and spring’
This rain we are getting in the south east at the moment is an anomaly, especially in this El Nino year.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/nsw-making-rainfall-comeback/398157
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just how are countries who buy into this get to keep their citizens and their country in the black and not go bankrupt?
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I would say…….
NONE!
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“Imagine” no countries.
30
If you bankrupt then the IMF/World Bank bails you out BUT there are strings… They now control all government economic policies.
Mr. Budhoo’s Bombshell:
A people’s alternative to Structural Adjustment
100
Yeah, but we end up with a warm, fuzzy feeling because we “did the right thing”.
Cue alarmists who will predictably roll out the “it’s better than doing nothing” mantra. Yeah, well putting up an umbrella in the face of a tsunami might be “better than doing nothing”, too.
They truly are incapable of having any logical thought.
180
to compare with the differences between temperatures projections in successive ipcc reports..
simulations can do better to lower the temperature of 2100.
30
What on Earth does that mean?
Do they seriously suggest it is even remotely possible, at whatever cost, to “stabilize” the climate like setting an air-conditioning thermostat.
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I think that is precisely what they mean.
They believe that they have the power to control the climate
80
No they believe they have the power to relieve the taxpayers of trillions of dollars. Climate has nothing to do with it.
“The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe.”
– Daniel Botkin, emeritus professor.
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.”
– ex Senator Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation.
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony… climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment.
“The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful.”
– Dr. David Frame, climate modeler, Oxford University.
1969 – “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000” — Paul Ehrlich (about overpopulation)
60
Hi Gai,
Yes – you are right. I was not being sufficiently nuanced.
There are of course those who are “in it” to exploit the beliefs of others for personal gain (Monetary, Power, etc).
There most common consensus narrative is that “we control the climate via CO2 emission”.
40
Isn’t 0.17C a statistical irrelevancy? So, are we spending hundreds of millions of $/€/etc on an irrelevancy? This is shear madness, or corruption, or both.
60
I meant trillions not millions, of course.
30
I’d just like to mention how important that date of 2030 actually is. I’ll be nearly 80 then, and hopefully I’ll still be around.
I couldn’t care two figs about the alleged climate change scam.
However, what really interests me is that every currently existing wind and solar plant will have reached it’s life expectancy, so not only will they need to keep constructing new ones, they’ll also have to replace ALL of the existing ones, which in effect means a doubling of any proposed construction.
If the people already have not been asking stern questions, then they will surely begin to ask some pretty stern questions by then.
Hey, it worries me not. I’ll be the smiling old guy, because smiles will be all I have. Nothing is more redundant than an 80 year old saying “I told you so!”
Current Wind Power Nameplate – 400,000MW, which is around 200,000 plus towers ….. ALL of them needing replacement.
Oh, and the current whole of World Capacity Factor for Wind power. Just shy of 15%, which is an average of around three and a half hours.
That Nameplate is the equivalent of 200 large scale coal fired power plants. The power actually delivered is around the same as for 35 of them. Pitiful to say the least.
Tony.
220
”However, what really interests me is that every currently existing wind and solar plant will have reached it’s life expectancy, so not only will they need to keep constructing new ones, they’ll also have to replace ALL of the existing ones, which in effect means a doubling of any proposed construction.
Tony,
solar PV has its own problems, but I’ll comment here on Big Wind subsidy farming. Currently just maintenance costs per MWH for large wind turbines is equivalent to the wholesale electricity cost from combined cycle gas turbine generation. Worse, the EROEI is so small for these machines, that a nation dependant on their “power” cannot afford to build them.
But on the maintenance/replacement issue, the tri-bladed cross of Gaia has a critical problem. I may work in design and engineering and have an hons.1 degree, but I also have a pilots licence. We fixed wing flyers refer to choppers as “A few thousand critical parts that all hate each other flying in loose formation”. Helicopters are shaking themselves apart and fly at the edge of engineering limits only with constant strip down and inspection. Helicopters minimise their engineering issues by placing the rotor shaft 2 degrees off vertical, allowing blades to swing in the horizontal plus elastomeric bearings and flex in the vertical. Yet they still shake themselves apart. (In a “ground resonance” incident, it happens faster than flutter in a multi engined fixed wing).
Aircraft manufactures must supply MTO (max time before overhaul) figures for all components. Wind turbine manufacturers wouldn’t dare, and governments give the subsidy farmers a free pass. What the Big Wind subsidy farmers never like to admit is that in their larger machines, 70% experience catastrophic gearbox failure within 2 years of installation or subsequent repair. The problem is aerodynamics. These machines don’t spin evenly. They experience 6 pulses of acceleration/deceleration per revolution. Three slow and soft from ground friction effects, three short and sharp from down wind tower shadow turbulence. The most common gear box failure is inner race radial bearing fracture. Any good engineer knows this is because of pulsed torsional loads in drive shafts. (FIG-JAM. Sure I can slow heat soak a 2205 duplex stainless bearing inner race to mono-crystalline then roll forge it followed by precision machining followed by abrasive polishing below flaw depth of machining. Now it won’t break. But something else will …). The holy tri-bladed cross of Gaia is an engineering dead end. As a battery charger on boats fine, build it bigger and it will fail and fail and fail.
Big wind is a ponzi scheme, wholly dependant on government enforced subsidies. The minute subsidies for new towers is refused, the whole pyramid scheme collapses.
330
Hmm! And here’s me just worrying about power delivery.
Nice comment Konrad. Thanks for the information.
Tony.
110
I was astounded to see roughly 10 minutes on Channel 7 in Adelaide tonight blasting wind turbines. I normally switch channels when the program starts right after the news, I can’t even say what it is called, but was so surprised that I viewed it all. A series of commentators saying that those turbines wouldn’t work when needed and that SA was out on its own in renewables.
Electricity bills will rise and blackouts will become frequent. The only hope was more transmission lines to get brown coal fired electricity from Victoria. Just what I have been thinking for weeks, but now I must bring forward buying a generator.
120
Up until now the public perception is that renewables can be used to replace coal/gas/hydro power, but the S.Aust black-outs have thrown a spanner in the works and people are starting to realise this is not true. If you go renewable one has to have back-up for the time, lets say 20% perhaps less, when the sun isn’t shining or the wind doesn’t blow. So really what’s the point in going renewable, just run the back-up 100% instead of 80%.
The only role for renewables is for isolated hamlets miles from the grid as long as there is diesel back-up.
70
@Konrad
Do you have empirical, reliable, independent data for that statement, please ?
[I sure as hell hope so, as I so want it to be true]
80
Palisade Investment Partners own 100% of the Hallett wind farm, and 55.5% of the Waterloo wind farm (in South Australia).
Looking at their website to see how many ex politicians had their snouts in the trough (yep, there’s 1 – Mark Vaile), I noticed that via the Hallett Windfarm “view more” button, it mentions that there is a “…manufacturers warranty over turbines for 5 years…”
I have no idea how that compares to the spinning bits of gas, or coal-fired infrastructure (though I don’t particularly see how they can be compared in terms of operational environments, or speeds) but it doesn’t seem very long, really…
30
Not 20 kilometres ‘as the crow flies’ from where I sit here in Rockhampton is the Stanwell Power station, a coal fired plant commissioned in 1996, and with a projected 50 year life span, that takes its operation out to 2046.
I want to compare just ONE unit at this plant with the wind plants mentioned in James Comment above here. This investment company owns Hallett 1 outright, which has a Nameplate of 94MW wind plant, and 55.5% of Waterloo which has a Nameplate of 111MW, so their share is 62 MW. This gives this company a total Nameplate of 156MW of wind power.
Now, back to Stanwell. It has four units of 365MW for a total Nameplate of 1460MW, but here I just want to mention only ONE of those units, Unit 4. This one unit holds a World record for continuous operation, meaning they fed the coal in and the plant operated at it’s maximum, delivering its full rated power of that 365MW. That World record is for 1,073 Days of continuous operation, just 22 days short of THREE FULL YEARS. (Link to reference)
The total power delivered to the grid here in Queensland was 9400GWH, from just this one unit at that plant during that period of time.
Now, back to this original company’s two wind plants. Hopefully, they will actually make the full 25 years of operation, but that is a very big ask, knowing that they will barely manage 15 years at best these days. However, for the sake of this comparison, let’s pretend they actually can make that full 25 years. The will have to operate at current Capacity Factor levels for the FULL 25 years to deliver the same power this ONE unit at Stanwell delivered in just under three years.
Oh and when Hallett 1 life expectancy is reached, Stanwell still has a further 13 years of operation ahead of it, and when Waterloo becomes life expired, Stanwell still has 11 years of operation ahead of it, and Stanwell was in operation 12 years prior to the first of these Wind plants becoming operational.
I know which plant will give the better return of investment.
Tony.
70
Ian,
here is a free to view article on the subject. It contains some outright lies and many minimisations. But it does give evidence that a critical problem is known. You will find much similar information with further Internet searches. However few will admit the primary causes of fracture of inner bearing races is due to the critical failings in aerodynamic design of the holy tri-bladed cross of Gaia.
I have access to some major bearing manufacturers internal analysis. I would be in the wrong if I named and shamed. They know, but they have a product to sell. It is not their job to call it out. These folks are delivering the best bearings they can. It is up to the subsidy farmers to admit their machines are engineering failures, not the bearing manufacturers, those folk are just doing their best in an impossible situation.
30
Wow – go long on General Electric Shares – huh?
(Just joking)
30
Not necessarily. But if you had your money in union controlled super funds, you might want to think.
1 dollar shelf companies and “salting the mine”. Ponzi schemes always require a little salt…
Just who “salted” the Big Wind subsidy mine in Australia? Where is your retirement money?
20
Has anyone remembered that the monthly anomalies are estimated to have an error of 0.1°C, so the difference between months is ±0.14°C. You could barely measure the difference in the global mean temperature anomaly if it really did make that big a difference.
92
That’s the reason Blomborg was not wanted at certain of our Unis- they don’t want to hear the embarrassing truth coming from anywhere nearby.
81
In some more enlightened future, “eco-madness” will be accepted as an aggressive addictive syndrome that was spread by social media and caused the decline of twenty-first century western society.
50
With a green pill as treatment for “eco-madness” but it’s just a placebo.
40
A hideously expensive placebo…
40
Delegates at ‘Paris Climat 2015’ will be too busy dividing up the spoils and portioning out the funding to be bothered with any attention to science or data. Such a shame and waste.
50
can I get fries with that?
30
A MUST-READ. EXCEPT FOR THE IDIOTIC REMARKS BY TIM BUCKLEY AT THE END:
10 Nov: AFR: Ben Potter: Wind and solar growth means more back up electricity needed, warns IEA
The world will produce electricity less efficiently in the future, thanks to the rapid growth of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.
The International Energy Agency warns in its World Energy Outlook 2015 that the world will have to add more generation capacity “than is globally installed today, while average utilisation rates … go down because of the need to integrate variable renewable technologies”…
In a world electricity market in which renewables such as wind and solar energy provide more than half the increase in generation capacity between now and 2040, back up capacity – in the form of coal, gas, hydro or nuclear baseload capacity, or batteries – will be required to switch on when intermittent renewables don’t work…
The IEA says in the World Energy Outlook – which also gives a more subdued outlook for coal than in last year’s report – that countries may have to pay baseload suppliers to maintain standby capacity for these occasions.
It says such countries will have to consider “appropriate market mechanisms that can generate the necessary investment in generation and grids.”
Britain’s electricity market already has a so-called “capacity market” which provides payments to baseload generators for this purpose. Germany, with a higher share of intermittent renewables in its electricity mix than Australia, is warily considering similar market mechanisms.
Such payments are unpopular in Britain because more often than not they go to a coal or other fossil fuel generator…
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) chief executive Matt Zema warned last month that recent price volatility in South Australia, which has the highest share of renewable energy of any state, would have caused blackouts if not for his agency’s intervention in the SA electricity market…
Coal’s share in the global electricity mix, which grew rapidly in the last 25 years to 41 per cent, shrinks back to 30 per cent…
But demand for the fuel continues to grow, supplying just 10 per cent of the growth in global energy demand between now and 2040, “largely due to a tripling in coal demand in India and south-east Asia”…
India, with 240 million people yet to enjoy the benefits of electricity, increases coal’s share of electricity generation to almost half the energy mix through a massive investment, overtaking China as the largest importer of coal by 2020…
http://www.afr.com/business/mining/coal/wind-and-solar-growth-means-more-back-up-electricity-needed-warns-iea-20151110-gkvfi4
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10 Nov: Bloomberg: Rajesh Kumar Singh: India’s Burgeoning Cities to Drive World Energy Demand, IEA Says
India will account for a quarter of global energy demand growth by 2040 as booming manufacturing and a bigger, richer and more-urbanized population set the nation on the path of sustained and rapid expansion, the International Energy Agency said.
The country’s oil demand is expected to reach 10 million barrels a day in the next quarter of a century, marking the fastest growth in the world, the Paris-based agency said in a report released Tuesday. Last month the IEA forecast that India would consume almost 4 million barrels a day this year.
The use of coal, the mainstay of the country’s power generation, will also increase as cities add about 315 million people, it said in the report. India, home to a sixth of the world’s population, accounts for only 6 percent of global energy use at present; one in five Indians are yet to gain access to electricity…
While India looks poised to have the fastest growth in energy demand, structural shifts in China’s economy will probably lead to an 85 percent reduction in energy use for every unit of growth there, according to the report. The East Asian nation, shifting to services from the fuel-hungry factories that fired growth over the past two decades, may nevertheless overtake the U.S. as the biggest user of oil by the 2030s, the IEA said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-10/india-s-burgeoning-cities-to-drive-world-energy-demand-iea-says
40
10 Nov: IEA: World Energy Outlook 2015
World Energy Outlook 2015 is available for sale at the IEA Bookshop. Accredited journalists who would like more information or who wish to receive a complimentary copy should contact press@iea.org.
Download the following resources related to the World Energy Outlook 2015:
•Presentation at the launch
•Executive Summary
•Fact sheet on global energy trends to 2040
•Fact sheet on oil and low oil prices
•Fact sheet on energy and climate
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2015/november/low-prices-should-give-no-cause-for-complacency-on-energy-security-iea-says.html
30
Grandsale ….Grandsale ….Grandsale
Buy your Carbon Credits here ! (suckers)
Bulk purchases welcome (suckers)
Will Send Payment Details Shortly (suckers)
Billions of idiots = Trillions of Dollars >> Here’s one of the Idiots(greens) >> https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10151822_780828808674484_3962412029208471167_n.jpg?oh=edcb408f1fb801632d81f941380c2234&oe=56919895
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10 Nov: Bloomberg: Reed Landberg: Oil Price Drop Threatens Industries That Help Cut Global Warming
International Energy Agency sees threat to clean energy
Oil at $50 would wipe out $800 billion of efficiency measures
If the cost of crude remains near $50 a barrel until the end of the decade, cheaper conventional fuels would hold back the development of electric cars and biofuels that are helping curb carbon emissions, IEA said. It also estimated about $800 billion of efficiency improvements in cars, trucks and airplanes would be lost.
The findings illustrate the complexity of the United Nations mission to secure a historic deal on reining in fossil-fuel emissions by the end of the year. While lower oil prices are helping the world recover from an economic slump, they’re also raising competitive pressures on technologies such as wind and solar power and making some projects take longer to pay off…
???Renewables took almost half of the new investment in power generation last year and will overtake coal as the largest source of electricity by the early 2030s, taking a market share of 50 percent in the EU by 2040, 30 percent in China and Japan and 25 percent in the U.S. and India, the IEA estimated…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-10/oil-price-drop-threatens-industries-that-help-cut-global-warming
30
“electric cars and biofuels that are helping curb carbon emissions”
Neither of these reduces CO2 emissions.
10
These “Lefty Fools”haven’t figured out yet that you have to have “Coal”generation to recharge these “Electric”cars.Bird Mincers won’t cut it.
00
here comes Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Bunkruptcy !
89 trillion ?…..And the rest !
It’s already 1.5 Trill per year now before the Paris Pre-Enlightenment Hajj ‘sign-up’ !
91
If the UN manages to acquire and spend $89 Trillion by 2030, I strongly suspect the following by 2030.
[a] A Big Mac made with organically sourced soy beans that were not harmed during production of the “burger” will cost $498 USD or equivalent fiat currency. The big mac will be delivered as a “Slurpie” in your own reusable mug.
[b] Everyone will have a reusable mug with a happy face on it.
[c] People who misplace their reusable mug will get to enjoy some unlimited recreation time in a comfortable hostel surrounded by a nice fence with a big sign reading “re-educashun campp”
[d] Unemployment will be abolished. No one will be allowed to say that someone is unemployed.
[e] People who insist that some people might be unemployed will join the reusable mug misplacers in the nice hostel described above.
[f] The trade in live animals will be banned. The trafficking of humans will be compassionately managed by the UN, as they have the most experience…
[g] Boeing and Airbus will create a joint venture to produce a passenger plane that runs on solar power funded by a UN grant. The $500 Billion dollar plane will make it’s inaugural flight out of Sydney for Los Angeles, leaving at 6 pm. The plane will work perfectly for the first two hours, but will develop problems as flying east – it flies into the night. Three seconds after losing contact with sunlight, the plane will begin a long, Titanic like, plunge into the pacific. The sole survivor will be the small lapdog of a Billionaire, (not to be confused with Bill Shorten – the lapdog that is, not the Billionaire) which is picked up by a lonely pacific islander where it becomes a family pet.
[h] An airline flight from Melbourne to Los Angeles will cost — “Are you kidding??? – You can’t afford it and you don’t have a permit to emit CO2.”
111
ONLY Solar powered aircraft should be used for transport to the December Paris-ite Feast.
That would solve multiple problems and do a proof of concept too.
Solar-Powered Plane Soars to New World Records — Scientific American
SEE, Turnbull and Obama and Al Gore and Bill Gates and Christiana Figueres… have ZERO excuse for not flying GREEN.
120
Excellent!
They really should have to put their money where their mouths are.
30
The Paris Hajj is not even up yet , but already the Climate Funds Pigs are diving in the Cash Trough !
Did anybody see the supposedly unbiased AlpgreensBC ‘The Dumb’ today ?
Wall to wall with True B’lvers including the loser of the unlosable election Hewson , flogging the need for his own renewables venture (of which information he conveniently never volanteers)!
How come the 46% True B’lvers have 100% representation on our ‘unbiased’ AlpgreensBC ?
102
So; Green everything up, eh? I can tell you from many years of experience that if you want to warm things up, all you have to do is grow a forest, especially a tropical rain forest. For proof, stand on a beach anywhere in Borneo adjacent to some tropical rain forest. You will find that while it may be very pleasant on the beach, you need only walk as little as 20 metres into the forest to find yourself in what can only be described as a sauna. Very unpleasant. All the duck squeezers and tree huggers would be running for their air conditioned hotel rooms so fast their fake tans would rub off.
102
Those warning of climate-change dread,
Promise cooling eight decades ahead,
Of one tenth a degree,
For a massive high fee,
After we and those warning are dead.
120
Hopefully their theory is dead by then as well.
80
There is currantly a renewed campaign to relate climate skeptics and big oil with the tobbaco industry, well we can play that game too, here in the UK there is a thriving smoking cessation industry ,people and organisations outside and inside the NHS and government that attack the evils of smoking with fanatical zeal,and yet fall just short of calling for an outright ban ? because no smoking means they are out of a job, there is even a current campeign for a massive hike in taxes on cigarettes and of course they are asking that all the money raised should go to the anti smoking industry ! . When the fanatics get together in Paris soon they will be shreiking hysterical nonsence about the dangers of CO2 with religious zeal,but if they truly believed that CO2 is an evil planet destroying gas they would all campeign for an imediate almost overnight shut down of all fossil fuel emissions, they dont ofcourse because they ,like the the anti smoking lobbists, their personal wealth and welfare are more important to them than the particular cause they are so convinced they have the moral highground in. CO2 is not a poison or pollutant it is the gas of life .
101
Can you even count on accurately measuring temperature to the nearest thousandth of a degree? I think that’s what you would need to do to reliably distinguish differences amounting to hundredths of a degree.
If I learned anything from 16 years in the measurement game it’s to not worry about what can’t be measured accurately with at least one additional digit of precision. You’re left with a rounding or truncation problem otherwise and either way, that kills 0.02°C as a useful distinction.
I wasn’t measuring temperature except to monitor the internal temperature of our equipment’s critical components and all I could get was the nearest °C (error unknown) — adequate for what I needed. But to worry about 0.02°? Not me.
71
I can only speculate that temperature change Roy, walking into a different room, taking clothing off, opening a car door, sneezing, taking your shoes off, sun appears from cloud cover..etc
I believe internally our bodies constantly experience those temperature changes though normal functions…..must be that deadly CO2… 😉
51
It would be less than any of those.
20
We finally determined that forced air cooling would keep things well below the problem point and I disabled the temperature monitoring function in the control program.
It shows that you can overkill anything when you FEAR that you have a problem. Isn’t that the key word in all this — fear?
And Yonni, a hot shower must be an intolerable shock to the human body to hear the climate change alarmists escalating their rhetoric constantly. Imagine that. All my life I’ve been endangering my life just by following society’s accepted standard of cleanliness. Do you think I should reconsider and stop showering? 😉
10
And to Mr. Red Thumb,
Yes, I realize that a constant 0.02 degree increase over time will add up to 0.2, then to 2.0 and so on. So I’m mocking your unjustifiable fear mongering because I neither see credible evidence that anything happening is caused by humans, nor do I see anything that humans can’t cope with if it ever does happen. After all, humans live everywhere on this planet from the far frozen north to the hottest deserts. And so it can also be said for life in general, life is everywhere.
So life is proven by millions of years of natural history to be much tougher and more persistent, in fact more aggressive in spreading out and evolving to newer and even more adaptive species than you would have us believe.
If what you fear should eventually happen would life change? Certainly. And so what? We are not causing it and can only face it if and when it comes. So where is your fear? What is it worth? Nowhere and nothing respectively.
10
We need to expose the folly of wind and solar to replace coal fired energy. Even the Europeans went cold on paying for climate action after the 2008 GFC as evidenced by the crash in the Euro Carbon Price – back pockets trumps “feel good” politics.
Here in Australia our “Greens” oppose building new dams for Hydro that also mitigate against both drought and flood. We have no nuclear industry and geothermal fields are not located in economically viable places near to our major population centers. So unreliable wind and solar is it. The only way these forms of energy can be made affordable is through massive subsidies. If more people knew the real costs of Wind and Solar the support for current renewable energy technology would dissolve.
81
OT: I’m sure most have seen this already, but I was jsut shown this video of David Suzuki (talking head, activist and scam artist) on ABC. He’s an idiot and I am happy to see what happens to him, pity our own CBC won’t give him the same treatment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mIVZnnqm7o&feature=youtu.be
61
There is one thing we can guarantee:
… should there be any real, objective, unfantasizeable, unarguable, noticeable, and measurable cooling, which a 97% consensus can be agreed upon, at any stage over the next 25 years, then natural variation will never be acknowledged.
All credit for it will be arrogated by the present villains and trumpeted abroad as irrefutable successes of ‘Carbon Taxes,’ `Carbon Markets,’ `Carbon Trading Schemes’ and Carbon Reductions no matter how ineffective.
We will be deafened by the `We-told-you-so!’s.
But we still won’t be permitted to put another log on the fire …
80
In Australia, Julia Gillard’s carbon tax, “there will be no carbon tax in a government I lead”, was very effective, although credit must also be given to Helen Clarke’s previous carbon tax (New Zealand). Combined, these small countries south of the equator stopped global warming cold. Not enough credit is given.
However there is a good argument that having achieved such dramatic success in such a short time, a new carbon tax might plunge the world into darkness and a new ice age. As third in charge at the United Nations, presumably for her wonderful achievement and competence, we can only hope Ms Clarke keeps an eye on the IPCC and the dangers of a new tax on fossil fuels. Kevin Rudd is also joining the UN to help prevent water shortages. Who says politicians are useless ego maniacs? Only they understand the uses to which science can be put for the benefit of all.
70
… as they are so well paid to do.
And we celebrated Guy Fawkes last week. We’re not allowed bonfires any more. I’m sure it’s more to remove temptation than the ostensible reason of property safety …
60
In a world where coincidence is causality, Australia has saved the world. Please send money.
It is important to continually talk about the IPCC as what it is, a political organization, not a scientific one. Sure, many scientists contribute whether they are experts, amateurs, teenagers or field leaders, but the critical Advice to Policy Makers and government is written by a political committee to whom scientists report. In this way the IPCC can claim the authority of scientists while ignoring them completely and pursuing the political agenda.
60
Sage Flannery and Friends >>> http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/gw-virus.gif
60
The latest in our “local”, another CO2 message from on high giving us, the plebs who pay for it, a chance to understand the importance of being “carbon neutral”.
Let’s see if they publish this!
http://www.theherald.com.au/story/3483834/opinion-good-news-for-nature/?cs=308
————————————————————————————————-
GeorgeJ
It’s a sad day for science when our once highly respected organization, The CSIRO, is reduced to a pawn in the game of politics.
There is absolutely no scientific truth behind the mantra of Man Made Global Warming by CO2
and in particular the concept of mechanical “sequestration” of CO2 is a totally ridiculous pathway to tread.
In a period when society has the potential to be so well informed it is beyond belief that so many can be taken in
and mislead by so few in a way which stifles the work of the CSIRO and exhausts finances for no gain except that
in the political sphere as exemplified by the united nations.
If only a small proportion of the money wasted on the global warming scam was allocated to the CSIRO for more
research on renewables in the areas of wind, tide and solar and perhaps even dams/hydro ( a double win win) we, the Australian taxpayers,
would be much better off.
CO2 is an essential component of life and we need to get over this new monstrous political construct surrounding it.
60
Rudd say Turnbull is “deeply self-delusional”?
10 Nov: Guardian: Lenore Taylor: Kevin Rudd slams George Pell as ‘radical climate sceptic’ ahead of Paris talks
Former prime minister says Pell’s views on climate change directly oppose those of Pope Francis, muddy the ‘ethical waters’ and should be challenged
The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, said recently no energy source could have a “moral characteristic” and Australia just needed to make rational choices between the various abundant energy sources it had available.
But Rudd insists that “anyone who claims in making policy judgments they are doing so oblivious to ethical considerations, and instead are simply acting on a simple ‘value free’ premise of ‘common sense’, is engaged in deep self-delusion”…
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/10/kevin-rudd-slams-george-pell-as-radical-climate-sceptic-ahead-of-paris-talks
10 Nov: The Conversation: Michelle Grattan: Kevin Rudd takes on George Pell over climate change
Rudd – who took a high profile role at the Copenhagen climate conference in 2009 – has also said the coming Paris climate conference should consider reconvening in the near future to revisit the inadequacies of the international commitments made so far…
“Third, the Cardinal asserts the cost of any policy intervention to arrest global warming is prohibitive for the economy and unfair on the poor, when measured against any possible gain to be derived for the planet from so acting.”
Rudd said he fundamentally disagreed with Pell on the science, the policy and the ethics. He said while there were questions and debates about precisely how climate change impacts would manifest, 97-98% of peer reviewed scientific literature agreed the world was getting significantly warmer as a result of human activities…
https://theconversation.com/kevin-rudd-takes-on-george-pell-over-climate-change-50467
Rudd obviously ignorant or unconcerned about how CAGW policies will negatively impact the very people he supposedly now represents via SWA.
60
“Rudd say Turnbull is “deeply self-delusional”?”
ROFLMAO..
must be true !!
If anyone could pick someone as being “self-delusional” it would be Rudd.
Mirror. mirror on the wall, who is the most self-delusional of all.
60
Lenore, Michelle and, completing the trinity, Latika:
10 Nov: SMH: Latika Bourke: Kevin Rudd blasts George Pell over climate change
Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has unleashed an excoriating attack on George Pell, accusing Australia’s most senior Catholic of being a “radical climate sceptic” and saying the cardinal’s “inflated rhetoric” can no longer go unchallenged on the role of the Church in the climate change debate.
In a blistering lecture called “Faith, Ethics and Climate Change,” Mr Rudd said he might have called a double-dissolution election on an emissions trading scheme had he not been robbed of the Labor leadership in 2010. And he said he stood by his claim that “climate change is the greatest moral challenge of our time” and predicted those words would stand the test of time.
The former Labor prime minister said George Pell needed an “ecological conversion” and noted the cardinal’s denial of climate change science matched the views of former prime minister Tony Abbott, to whom Cardinal Pell is close…
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-rudd-blasts-george-pell-over-climate-change-20151110-gkv8lx.html#ixzz3r5CdAN87
70
Off topic but important “NASA and NCAR have known since 1971 that CO2 is not dangerous “
70
apologies to Andyg55 who raised this first on Weekend unthreaded, post #9.
Just catching up on reading the posts.
Thanks
60
grrrr.. how dare you take my posts 😉 🙂
40
Well I’m glad he did, as I missed your post. And it’s a beauty.
Cheers,
Dave B
20
Q. 97% BoM Super Godzilla El Niño or Linus and the Return of the Great Halloween Pumpkin?
ABC: Bureau of Meteorology says El Nino on its way out, widespread rain on the way in
A. Linus and the Return of the Great Halloween Pumpkin. Except more pathetic.
70
ABC: Cane growers hoping El Nino keeps rain clouds away as Queensland sugar harvest wraps up
“Most sugar mills between Ingham and Mossman are eyeing the finish line of an unremarkable crushing season in which crop yield increases have been undermined by diabolical global prices.
Tully Sugar’s general manager Barry Dun admits it would be a brave weather forecaster to predict no rain in December in Tully; yet that’s exactly what’s needed if the region is to process an unprecedented 2.8 million tons of cane by Christmas.”
. . .
But, no rain is exactly what the BoM predicted.
70
In the bush its known as a good season, the whole country appears to be getting reasonable rain and the MDB another dumping. This shouldn’t be happening in an El Nino year.
“Normally in a breakdown we see big large monsoonal lows track across the state,”…
How normal exactly, I want a second opinion.
Australia is already awash and a strong La Nina in 2016 strongly favors an end to water buybacks.
40
Adding weight to my argument that BoM doesn’t have a clue beyond a week and their seasonal forecasts are woeful.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=4055
40
10 Nov: Quadrant: Tony Thomas: Who’s Killing Our Climate Scientists?
Well nobody, actually, unless you count a smattering of sometimes rude emails as representing credible threats to warmists’ lives and safety. As with climate change itself, our purportedly un-settled scientists refuse to share their evidence of bloodthirsty sceptics on the warpath
Why is the Australian Academy of Science going off the deep end claiming “reprehensible vilification” of warmist scientists? It’s now saying they’re being so threatened and harassed that their ability to do science is in jeopardy. Academy President Andrew Holmes, addressing a greenhouse conference in Hobart on October 27, claimed
“The costs to individuals can be high. It is therefore critical that as scientists and experts we stand together. The ability of scientists to conduct their work, free of fear or hindrance, is vital to the future wellbeing of our community, and the Academy will continue to advocate for academic freedom”…
“As the International Council for Science proclaims, the free and responsible practice of science is fundamental to scientific advancement and human and environmental well-being.”
I thought at first he was chastising the academics at University of Western Australia over their successful witchhunt against non-sceptic Bjorn Lomborg, or that he was chastising academics at University of Melbourne for wanting punitive fines to drive sceptics out of the media. Or maybe rebuking US academic peers who wanted sceptic corporations to be prosecuted under the Racketeering and Corrupting Influences Act (that exercise backfired spectacularly). But I erred, Holmes’ victimology includes only orthodox climate scientists as its purported casualties…
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2015/11/whos-killing-climate-scientists/
70
I think we shouldn’t lose focus about how much co2 levels have increased by over the last 200 years.
We started at about 280 ppm and we now estimate co2 levels to be about 400 ppm, an increase of about 120ppm. That means we’ve increased co2 levels in the air we breathe by about 1.2 parts in 10,000 since about 1800.
But the Concordia uni study shows temp has increased by about 0.7 C over the last 215 years and they then state that we in Australia are responsible for about 0.006 C of that warming. And yet we hear the Labor and Green fools telling us we must tackle climate change. What a load of BS.
100
At the core of the AGW logic, there is no evidence linking the steady CO2 increase with human activity. If two things go roughly up at roughly the same time, once must cause the other? This is the loosest of coincidences. As Prof Selby concluded, after 20 years of study, there is no correlation at all between CO2 and temperature. The graphs of human activity and CO2 do not match. One is exponential and the other is steady, almost linear.
So this whole business is based on non science. Only a non scientist would be so blithely unaware of equilibrium, the greatest rule in physical chemistry. You cannot unilaterally increase CO2 in the air when CO2 is extremely soluble and 2/3 of the planet is covered in water and 98% of CO2 is in the water already. Then if man cannot change CO2 levels because man’s output is insignificant, what is the problem?
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In case I was not clear, in most things I read there is this tacit acceptance that the CO2 increase is man made, even from people who do not believe in AGW. Never concede this! Make someone prove it. I have never seen a proof. Has anyone?
Whether CO2 produces warming at all is irrelevant if we humans cannot increase CO2 levels. It is simple to prove there is only a tiny amount of fossil fuel CO2 in the air. So the very idea of man made Global Warming is based on man made CO2 change, which cannot happen. As for CO2 made warming, that is not happening. As for man made Climate Change without warming, I have read no explanation at all for how that happens.
AGW is a house of cards with no cards.
40
In the last half year or so there has been a very marked change in the rhetoric associated with anything climate and energy, energy generation and the power over every type of Energy generation of course being the ONLY lever that the radical leftists of the climate activist movement have in trying to impose their brand of totalitarian ideology.
The leftist climate / energy activist movement is becoming an increasingly totalitarian ideology which is steadily becoming very similar to every other of the age old aims of previous and countless totalitarian based movements down through history.
It is becoming very similar in its aims to today’s ISIS in its attempts to centralised and radicalise its supporters with its no opposition tolerated , you deserve to suffer and if we, the activists deem it, to die, if you don’t pay homage to and believe in our current ideological stance, a stance where we, the leftist activists retain the right to shift that stance if we deem it necessary to fit our purposes.
There is little left of any vestiges of science in the climate wars with nearly everything becoming a battle of a highly political leftist driven activist enforced ideology intent on destroying the capitalist system and replacing it with a nebulous form of some sort of global pseudo totalitarian political system that will in the belief of the leftist activists solve all of the worlds problems
They are sure of the powers of this leftist driven totalitarianism as they assume in their ignorant naivety that they will be the ones who impose their knowledge of all thats wrong with the world onto everybody else and therefore it is they alone who have the knowledge and abilities to fix the world’s problems and shape the world in the image they believe they have of a future world.
Rather interestingly there seems to be NO mention of the forms this totalitarian world government is supposed to take except a naive belief that it will be run by the United nations organisation.
The activists are too busy and too lacking in any real semblence of intellectual analysis in trying to organise the collapse of civilisations major centres of advancement to think any further ahead to what might be the structure of the New World Order they are working towards.
In the last half year Climate alarmist science has come down to the level of merely playing a very secondary role as the excuse base for the imposition of the new leftist designed world order and for radical activists to try to upset and re-order the societal structures .
Climate science is now close to being dead as a cause in itself as the futility and often outright stupidity of so much of the claims of climate alarmist science seeps through into the public consciousness.
We have entered a period not dissimilar in some ways to the second decade of the 20th century where the world was in political turmoil as the old order of Kingdoms and Powers and Kaisers and Empires began to disintegrate and new political structures were evolving across the world ‘s nations, many of them new nations in modern history.
It was a time of turmoil where people were grasping for stability and belief in their rulers.
It was a time where ruthless and radical leftist ideology activists such as Soviet communists seized power with the aims of controlling all of mankind and shaping all of mankind in the image they believed in.
In some ways were are seeing this today as the political and social order and nation states of the last three quarters of a century begin to break down and break up.
And like that early 20th century period we see the radical leftist with their impossible and life and society destroying dreams again trying to maneuver into position to take over mankind and reshape it in their image of impossible dreams.
And like every other attempt this one too will fail .
And like every other attempt this one too will extort a terrible cost in lives and suffering before it too is snuffed out for another two or three generations when phoenix like that same radical , deadly leftist totalitarian ideology will rise again to inflict its suffering upon mankind once again.
Climate alarmist science is dead.
Dead of its own failures and therefore of its own hand.
Only the stench remains and will do so for a long time yet.
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another flop….tick tick tick…
10 Nov: ReutersCarbonPulse: Ben Garside: EU finance chiefs quiet on ringfencing EUAs for climate aid
EU finance ministers failed to make any new commitments on climate finance at a meeting on Tuesday, rebuffing calls from the bloc’s parliamentarians and NGOs to ringfence EUA revenue for foreign aid…
NGOs were disappointed that these resolutions included no firmer guarantees of climate finance ahead of crunch UN climate talks in Paris next month.
“This decision will weaken the EU’s ***alliance with those most vulnerable to climate change,” said Wendel Trio, director of green group coalition CAN Europe…
It remains possible that the issue could be raised by EU environment ministers during the Paris talks as a potential bargaining chip to win over poorer nations.
“For success in Paris, the EU should show how it will ease the pressure on stretched aid budgets by tapping into additional financing sources such as revenue from financial transaction taxes and the EU’s polluter-pays system, the EU ETS,” said Oxfam’s Lies Craeynest…
http://carbon-pulse.com/eu-finance-chiefs-quiet-on-ringfencing-euas-for-climate-aid/
***Wendel Trio – what “alliance”?
10 Nov: ClimateChangeNews: EU missed its chance on climate finance
by Mattias Soderberg, chair of ACT Alliance
With no concrete commitments to scale up cash, EU position will fail to win developing country allies at Paris COP21
What’s new?
“The EU has today confirmed its position as the global leader in climate finance.” So says European Commission economics chief Pierre Moscovici.
NGOs are not convinced. “The EU has failed to offer a credible financial support package for the Paris agreement,” says Wendel Trio of the Climate Action Network…
While ministers have been able to identify the need for action, they have failed to deliver commitments…
EU finance ministers missed a great opportunity to draw a plan to phase out fossil fuels subsidies1 for production and consumption in order to give more support to renewable energies and to comply with the need to keep most fossil fuels in the ground.
They also missed the chance to propose an element of climate finance in the ongoing EU carbon trading reform…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/11/10/eu-missed-its-chance-on-climate-finance/
40
as if anyone but CAGW zealots & CAGW-invested entities are thinking of leaving fossil fuels in the ground!
9 Nov: Jordan Times: Reuters: Oil price faces fresh downturn as Russia, Saudi Arabia tussle in Europe
A sales push by Saudi Arabia into north Europe’s refineries, a step into rival Russia’s backyard, piles fresh pressure on oil prices already struggling against oversupply.
Stung by Russia’s success in supplanting it in the giant Chinese market, Riyadh has embarked on a charm offensive in Europe, cutting its prices for December by more than it has in any other region to their lowest since 2009 during the financial crisis.
Saudi Arabian barrels rarely venture north of the Mediterranean, into the home turf for Russian, African and North Sea crudes…
Refiners averted a price drop from a similar build up of surplus oil in spring, snapping up cheaper crude to feed a surge in gasoline demand.But this time there is a glut of refined fuel too…
“The first half of next year looks like a distinctly dangerous period for oil bulls,” brokers PVM Chief Executive David Hufton indicated in a note. “It could be the period when tank tops are reached, leading to a price meltdown.
“Homeless barrels are again collecting in the Atlantic market, this time dragging crudes of all kind into a price war that is making $50 a barrel an increasingly impenetrable barrier for benchmark Brent futures…
And as Iran prepares to ramp up sales when and if Western sanctions are lifted next year, the overhang is only likely to aggravate further…
A physical excess of more than 60 million barrels of Nigerian oil, and North Sea output at two-year highs, along with nearly full diesel, gasoil and jet fuel tanks in Europe that have already pushed cargoes into floating storage, will only add to the pressure…
“It’s a movement of an era of scarcity to one of abundance; it’s a movement from a world of unexpectedly strong demand and tight supplies to a world of ample supplies, even oversupplies, and weaker demands,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS and the author of a Pulitzer Prize-winning book on the history of oil.
“OPEC’s not the only balance of the market. The United States is back in the role of swing producer, a role it hasn’t exerted in six decades,” he indicated.
Fluctuating oil prices are nothing new, but this time the US has found itself roaring back into the industry with the mass production of shale oil and reduced dependence on imports.
US shale, a weakening economy in China and other factors have pushed prices down…
http://www.jordantimes.com/news/business/oil-price-faces-fresh-downturn-russia-saudi-arabia-tussle-europe
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Where are the car driving/connected to the grid %CAGW% drones to defend this….?? 🙂
Rats got ya tongue..
Anyway…if they had not been lobotomised so well..so long ago..they would be suffering from cognitive dissonance..
Most will not care..its onwards and upwards..keep chanting asinine slogans..keep name calling and smearing..as the west crumbles..oh well..”they won”..they are just too dim to realise we all lost.
Frogs been brought to a slow boil..
20
uh-oh:
10 Nov: ReutersCarbonPulse: Stian Reklev: CN Markets: Hubei CO2 price drops to all-time low amid signs of waning interest
CO2 allowance prices in the Hubei ETS plunged to 20.03 yuan ($3.15) on Tuesday, extending a record low for the third time within a week as liquidity in China’s most traded market is quickly drying up…
Market participants struggled to explain the trend…
But others said the government’s eagerness to regulate the market may have had an impact.
“I think traders are freaking out over the price, they are not allowed to speculate,” one observer told Carbon Pulse. The comparatively big volumes seen in Hubei have been primarily driven by speculators hoping to make a profit in a market that has relatively loose financial trading regulations compared to the other pilots…
http://carbon-pulse.com/cn-markets-hubei-co2-price-drops-to-all-time-low-amid-signs-of-waning-interest/
10 Nov: ReutersCarbonPulse: Stian Reklev: Scrap over unused allowances could prove vital for China’s carbon market
When the national ETS launches in 2017, the seven pilot markets will have accumulated 50-100 million surplus allowances, according to analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon and ICIS Tschach Solutions.
In deciding what to do with those, the NDRC in Beijing is treading a thin line between maintaining the confidence of market participants, the goodwill of regional officials and ensuring the national market gets off to an efficient start with a meaningful carbon price…
If Beijing rejects banking of pilot allowances, or only allows them at a very low value, prices in the over-allocated pilot markets are almost certain to collapse to near zero, which would deal a hard blow to the confidence of everyone involved in the market and cast doubt over China’s ability to operate a national scheme…
http://carbon-pulse.com/scrap-over-unused-allowances-could-prove-vital-for-chinas-carbon-market/
40
Here is James Delingpole’s take on the Lomborg paper
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/10/cost-climate-change-1-5-trillion-year-reduce-global-warming-0-048c/
I love the way he explains what trillion is ( some is not new but it bears repeating)
30
I think I will put up a post on eBay – for sale 1x clean environment for a mid size, moderately populated planet, good working order, minimal CO2. Starts first time, 1 careful lady owner. Selling due to move abroad.. $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
40
“1 careful lady owner”
And her name is :
a. Christina
or
b. Julie
??
KK
30
I was thinking Mother Nature
30
10 Nov: US Dept of State: Remarks on Climate Change and National Security – Old Dominion University Norfolk, VA
I say this very clearly, because I’m proud of it: I am an environmentalist. I came to the table as an environmentalist long before I became lieutenant governor of Massachusetts, let alone senator. I’ve been an environmentalist all my life.
But the reason I have made climate change a priority in my current role as Secretary of State is not simply because climate change is a threat to the environment. It’s because – by fueling extreme weather events, undermining our military readiness, exacerbating conflicts around the world – climate change is a threat to the security of the United States and, indeed, to the security and stability of countries everywhere.
When we talk about climate change, we’re not just talking about the harm that is caused to the habitat for butterflies or polar bears – as some people try to mock it… We are talking about the impacts on people – people everywhere – of severe droughts, rapid sea level rise. We’re talking about the impacts on whole cities of unpredictable and uncontrollable extreme weather events. We’re talking about the impact on entire countries of fundamental shocks to the global agricultural system…
Now, believe me, I wish I were wrong about this. It would be better for all of us if I was exaggerating the urgency of this threat. But the science tells us unequivocally: Those who continue to make climate change a political fight put us all at risk. (Applause.) And we cannot sit idly by and allow them to do that…
And today, Americans advocating action on climate change come from all walks of life and both sides of the aisle. The list includes economists like former President George W. Bush’s Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who called climate change “a crisis we cannot afford to ignore.” It includes diplomats like Ronald Reagan’s former Secretary of State George Shultz, who says that on climate change, “We have to be a leader.”
And it certainly includes military brass…
And today, Americans advocating action on climate change come from all walks of life and both sides of the aisle. The list includes economists like former President George W. Bush’s Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who called climate change “a crisis we cannot afford to ignore.” It includes diplomats like Ronald Reagan’s former Secretary of State George Shultz, who says that on climate change, “We have to be a leader.”
And it certainly includes military brass…
Some skepticism, I’m sure, is understandable. It’s even important. But at a certain point, folks, if it causes you to wait too long or to ignore reality altogether, it becomes very dangerous.
You certainly don’t need to be a scientist to see that our climate is already changing.
How many of you are under 29 years old here today?…
But while those of you with your hands in the air, I want you to know – you can put them down – I want you to know you haven’t lived through a single month that was cooler than its 20th century average – not one. Think about that. It means that what used to be normal no longer is.
The past decade was the hottest on record. The one before that was the second hottest on record. The one before that was the third hottest on record. You beginning to get it? Three decades in a row.
Nineteen of the 20 warmest years in recorded history have occurred in the past two decades. And this year, my friends, is on track to be the warmest of all…
http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/11/249393.htm
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11 Nov: SMH: Peter Hannam: Turnbull climate plan to deliver only one-seventh carbon cuts: Climate Institute
The centrepiece of the Turnbull government’s climate policy will deliver just one-seventh of Australia’s post-2020 carbon reduction goals, according to analysis by The Climate Institute.
The $2.55 billion Emission Reduction Fund (ERF) – which may swell to almost $5 billion by 2030 – will likely deliver about 355 million tonnes of carbon abatement, based on the price paid in the fund’s first auction…
A test of the analysis will come on Thursday when the government will releases results of its second ERF auction…
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-climate-plan-to-deliver-only-oneseventh-carbon-cuts-climate-institute-20151110-gkvwx6.html
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[…] Yadullah HussainJerry Brown hit with whistleblower complaint over oil and gas survey: Jazz ShawThose policies will cause HOW much cooling exactly?: […]
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