COP21 won’t get a meaningful agreement, but they will get “breakthrough success”
Don’t think China, India and Russia can save us. They won’t give up fossil fuels in a meaningful way, but they all have a price and buying them off is a lot cheaper than you might think. That’s because the goal is not for them to reduce CO2, but only for them to give the appearance of doing so.
It’s not about CO2, but about PR
Paris is a theatre– a grand show, and China’s Vice Foreign Minister Liu Jianmin said as much. He “laughed when the ‘High Ambition Coalition’ was mentioned. “It is a kind of performance,” he said, “It makes no difference.”
The 1.5C “high ambition” target is a perfect PR win. The Green Machine will be able to claim a major success getting X number of countries to sign up for a breakthrough pledge to do something “more ambitious”, something that “far exceeded our hopes” but that is really decades away and likely to happen even if nobody did anything at all. It’s the do nothing, unaccountable promise that politicians love to make.
All three nations have publicly poured cold water on the Paris solutions, but view that as just posturing for a better position to negotiate from.
Figure how the equation looks for China:
- how do I hobble my competitors, steal their factories, and sell them more of my goods?
- how do I collect more of their pointless guilt payments (carbon credits etc)?
- and how can I look like a hero in the West at the same time?
Answer to all three: smile at the press conference, and pander to the global extremists in words only. Do token efforts and turn the guilt screws on the West as appropriate.
Things for India don’t look that different to China. For Russia the equation is more complicated as it involves oil exports and ISIL. But all of them will sign a deal that hurts the West but doesn’t impinge on their own growth. And in China and Russia, there is no push-back from their citizens for “selling out”. We can’t rely on undemocratic countries to save us.
Why we know it’s a grand theatre
The Green Machine actions betray their words. When the Climate extremists get a choice they often choose the less effective and higher CO2 option — so there is something they want more than CO2 reductions, something that trumps mere “carbon pollution”. Ponder that Climate change is The Greatest Threat on Earth but the Green Machine won’t consider nuclear energy, super critical hot coal, fracking for gas, or Direct Action type plans that cut CO2 cheaply. As I said last week, Tony Abbott was dangerous because he gave the Green Machine what it “said” it wanted — cheap cuts to CO2. Really what they want is personal power, glory and money. They also like invitations to hot dinner parties and two week long junkets every year. Who wouldn’t? And getting that out of COP21 at Paris is a very different goal to reducing global atmospheric carbon dioxide or actually changing the temperature, which are both incidental, an accidental kind of collateral damage to achieve the primary goal. The top Green permitted solutions to the climate problems are always the ones that increase dependency on big-government — like inefficient renewable energy, government funded research, carbon taxes and fake markets that are government run.
Reducing actual emissions is unaffordable — but the reality of that won’t save us from a “true global deal” and a “major success” at COP21. The West can’t afford to pay to convert the developing world to renewables zero-emission heaven. The West can barely achieve real emission cuts for themselves. But what matters is getting India, China and Russia to look like they are doing something. That’s a PR victory for the Green Machine, and it would be used to keep dragging funding from western taxpayers.
PS: We’ll be getting back to original research and the notch and solar model soon after the Paris Show concludes.
PPS: We could really use your help in the tip jar. Thanks to our dedicated supporters. We can’t do this without you!
The trick is to do a Turnbull, talk about all the old coal power plants being shut down in China…then not finish the sentence.
To make a good post-COP headline, the MSM will be more than happy to talk of closures and ignore the hundreds of new plants under construction and the many more planned. If someone in China cops a fine under enviro protection laws, you will hear about it from Fairfax or the ABC. So there will be many light raps over many Chinese knuckles just for Western consumption. Any economic downturns will be construed as carbon reduction – which will in fact be accurate, especially if you don’t count the desperate souls burning twigs, dung, furniture, raw coal, kero etc.
Fight Green Blob!
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You min ba splainin’ stuff, Lucy?
Remember when Malcolm Turnbull vowed to explain everything?
You build confidence by explaining, as I said earlier, explaining what the problem is, making sure people understand it, and then setting out the options for dealing with it …
That’s the approach I have taken: Laying out what the issues are, getting the facts straight, explaining that and then presenting a path forward and then making the case for that path forward. My firm belief is that to be a successful leader in 2015 – perhaps at any time – you have to be able to bring people with you by respecting their intelligence in the manner you explain things.
Well, Turnbull’s government now seems to have moved on from that explaining phase:
Eyebrows were raised after the Turnbull government shifted its stance overnight when Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop signed up to a New Zealand-led declaration at the Paris climate summit backing the use of international carbon markets in tackling climate change.
Former prime minister Tony Abbott shunned the use of international carbon permits, once saying that: “money that shouldn’t be going offshore into dodgy carbon farms in Equatorial Guinea and Kazakhstan”.
But in a speech on Wednesday, Ms Bishop said: “We recognise that international carbon markets are a key part of the global effort to reduce emissions”.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/no_explanation/#commentsmore
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At a news conference last week in Brussels, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.
“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution,” she said.
Read More At Investor’s Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/021015-738779-climate-change-scare-tool-to-destroy-capitalism.htm#ixzz3u4vtF7gl
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But its amazing how he is not only getting away with saying basically nothing about anything, He is gaining credibility in the process. The way ABC has fawned over him really confuses me, I can only assume they have some sort of plan to discredit him closer to the election because who believes they suddenly support an LNP Govt?
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Sounds like a parody of old martial arts wisdom “the art of explaining without explaining” or just the sound of one mouth flapping…such agility.
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I suspect you are perhaps missing the point
The ABC/Fairfax/leftoid segments of the MSM (ie. almost all of it) are of the view that Shorten doesn’t have a hope of winning, especially with the TURC Report due in less than 2 weeks. Even the MSM cannot avoid the dirty washing in that
So if Shorten is considered a dead loss, who do ya turn to, who do ya like, who waffles on approvingly about all the leftoid talking points ?
The only fly in this ointment, for them, is the Nats. Election 2016 has the new Lib/Nat ratio as the most interesting of parameters
141
Spot on. Rich banker from Point Piper. They tried this the day they thought Tony Abbott had been killed off. Now they have learned and will wait. Albanese or Plibersek will appear on the horizon as the great hope and the ABC will turn on Malcolm.
80
My thoughts exactly TDeF. I cannot see how Shorten will make it to the election and I get the feeling after watching “Machine Man” that the public service/bureaucracy/ABC/green blob are basically done with him. I certainly think Albanese or Plibersek will take Labour to the election and I also strongly believe the ABC will switch back to Labour mode when that happens.
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Neither of these is electable as PM. The MSM know this; as imperfect as he may be, Lord Waffle is their best bet to have their agenda rolled out. His wealth is not really an MSM issue, just as Rudd’s wasn’t
You are perhaps underestimating the depth of capability and appetite for hypocrisy from the meeja
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‘Neither of these is electable as PM.’
They are a couple of global warming zealots, I don’t see any problem.
40
Those two would be lucky to retain their seats! If the Libs, be it directly or by running a closet lib (independent), preferences the Greens they are gone!
Very tempting…one would ponder.
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Yes, I suggested that a few months ago when I was describing the Wentworth electorate
Although that electorate would never vote ALP, 1) Lib; 2) Green … yep, or even 1) Green; 2) Lib
00
You mean Clive, the master of the unsinkable ship, Safetyguy66?
Ahoy! Icebergs to port. Full steam ahead me hearties.
If the icebergs don’t get him the ABC will.
Straight to Tony’s brother Davy’s locker.
30
Tropical cyclones in the South China Sea have become weaker since 2003 and alarm bells should be ringing.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/dec/a4.php
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The only meaningful result would be imprisonment for the CON21 shyster and CAGW True B’lvers infestation .
All there still trying to steal our money for nothing …..none have any credibility whatsoever !
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Say, I’m not sure if this has already been mentioned, but watch this video.
John Kerry must have had a brain fade.
Kerry says that it’s not enough
What the!
Tony.
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Tony
Then you one of Pat’s earlier post and you wonder where Kerry is going ( backwards I think). A very strange thing for Kerry to openly in public
NYT 10 Dec: Secretary of State John Kerry took a similar tack in a speech here on Wednesday.
“For a moment — and a moment only — let’s give the climate deniers the benefit of the doubt,” he said. Even if the overwhelming scientific consensus is wrong, he asked rhetorically, “what is the worst that could happen” by shifting away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy?
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For me that’s a “Wow!”.
Thanks Tony.
Cheers,
Dave B
70
That bouffant has a very peculiar person.
60
Do you mean this John(Ketchup)Kerry ? >>
http://images.sodahead.com/polls/004016095/5357885871_kerry_ketchup_lies_xlarge.jpeg
40
Jo Nova headline – “Why we know it’s a grand theatre”
Agreed.
I suggest some new Bollywood (not Hollywood) blockbuster movies
“THE GRAND STING” & “HOW THE WEST WAS BROUGHT TO ITS NEEDS”
No doubt these blockbuster movies will reach cult status in China, India & Russia (~ 38% of the world’s population).
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Make that “HOW THE WEST WAS BROUGHT TO ITS KNEES”.
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Or maybe “HOW THE WEST WAS DONE”
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10 Dec: UK Telegraph: Emily Gosden: Coal, nuclear and diesel to keep lights on in £800m scheme
Subsidy price for energy companies likely to be too low to result in construction of any new gas plants
Hundreds of millions of pounds in subsidies will be paid to diesel generators and old coal and nuclear plants to help keep the lights on later this decade, ministers are set to confirm on Friday.
National Grid is preparing to publish the results of the latest “capacity market” auction, a Government scheme that will pay energy companies to guarantee they can provide electricity in 2019-20…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/12045006/Coal-nuclear-and-diesel-to-keep-lights-on-in-800m-scheme.html
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Pat,
With all due respect, your comment has virtually nothing to do with what is being discussed.
Is anybody else here getting rather fed-up with Pat constantly bombing a discussion thread with irrelevant links?
I know you have good intentions Pat, but please stop deluging us with links to articles from all over the web. Stick to the discussion in hand!
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David Smith,
Pat’s comments aren’t supposed to have anything to do with what is being discussed. These comments are meant to keep us informed of current events as they relate to the Climate Change ™ controversy/scam in general and I for one am grateful for pat’s efforts in this regard. One of the main reasons that this web-site is still my favorite site is because of pat’s links to current events. One stop shopping, yeah?
Similar comments supporting pat’s efforts appear below.
Pat, keep up the good work. 😉
Abe
50
David, I understand what you are saying, but Pat is the news-man here. I find his comments useful on these politico-legal-news type threads. Often he finds stories that I use in subsequent posts.
We do try to keep science threads on topic, but are not so strict on other threads. It is a difficult line to draw sometimes.
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I had noticed that he had avoided posting “news-stuff” on the climate model pages.
I think that is very good of him.
And yes.. even though I don’t always have time to read all the stuff Pat posts, most of it is definitely very relevant in many ways.
50
MSM now reporting –
12 Dec: Australian: AFP: Paris climate talks: ‘We have a text’
“We have a text to present,” an official in the office of Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who presides over the 195-nation talks, said…
It was hoped the text will be adopted at a special session on Saturday French time…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/paris-climate-talks-we-have-a-text/news-story/2bef72f02afa48f40abe44c4301d4bea
12 Dec: BBC: COP21: Climate deal final draft ‘agreed’ in Paris
An official in the office of French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told the AFP news agency the draft would be presented to ministers at 10:30 GMT.
No details of the proposed agreement have been released so far…
“We have a text to present,” the official said, adding that the draft would be now translated into the UN’s six official languages.
***Analysts say that this is not a done deal – ratification will only take place if there are no objections raised at Saturday morning’s ministerial meeting, and even is unlikely to come before afternoon in the French capital…
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35079532
40
Man, if the problem is so dire, as they keep telling us, then the REAL text to come out of COP21 should be the following ten words. That’s if they were really serious.
Trouble is that the UN would have ZERO chance of ever enforcing that. Everyone will just do whatever they are continuing to do ….. right now.
Totally and utterly ignoring that.
Tony.
210
Notice the BBC categorizes the the Paris talks under Science & Environment. It should be under World politics. The talks are about deciding public policy. Using the clearly false classification gets around the BBC Charter obligation of impartiality.
170
I was watching a Brian Cox documentary this afternoon and he said a couple of interesting things about life etc on Earth. Two things struck me especially were that the oceans had previously ‘actually’ been acidic and that one volcano (as recently as maybe 100,000 years ago) had erupted five billion tons of ash into the atmosphere. It was the interaction between acidic and alkaline waters caused by volcanic activity that fostered life on earth and continues today.
I watch these ABC programs and wonder whether any climate tragics do the same, and whether a kernel of curiosity enters their head. What is stated in these programs so often doesn’t accord with what the ‘climate experts’ keep touting, who also ignore real evidence of climate and its inscrutable and ever changing ways. If a super volcano anywhere on Earth were to pop its lid, it would eliminate all and any carbon abatement program for the next 100+ years (as well as a lot of other things).
161
I gave up on him when I heard a female talk back woman describe him as “Thinking womens’ eye candy”.
Found myself agreeing and learned again of the safe feelings that some women have [snip. We better not get into that.-J]
Geoff
41
One thing that fascinates me about media scientists is their capacity to take a tiny morsel of fact ( eg CO2 dissolved in pure water makes a very weak acid), spin it into a huge conflation of speculation and then present the result as scientific fact.
In this case ( if I understand your quote), Brian Cox seems to have read about a huge volcano which existed about 100,000 years ago and made up his own creation story via the interaction of acid and alkaline sea water! Does any of that fit with the geological or fossil record or current understanding of biology?
I personally find Brian Cox difficult to watch these days. He is a BBC wunderkind, a lefty and a proselytiser of the global warming religion. For some reason he reminds me of John Cook.
61
I don’t believe that he made up anything; the volcano that he used as an example was just one in the Philippines. He demonstrated the actions of these two disparate forms of water, that often formed in volcanic calderas and how their intermingling through rock and soil etc, gave rise to chemical reactions that were fundamental to the formation of life (nature’s battery so to speak).
The one thing that I’ve found in the few episodes that I’ve watched, is that he hasn’t overtly preached climate change.
20
He might not mention it in every documentary that he makes.
http://www.thegwpf.com/brian-cox-is-wrong-on-science-climate-controversies/
30
That’s sad.
40
Come on 1500 ppm co2 !
We need more co2 ,not less .
They want to bring in great big new Carbon Taxes to supposedly reduce a necessary for life gas when the gas in question co2 is at historic low levels !
We walk among mental midgets .
The lunatics are in charge of the asylum.
Maybe they can issue new ‘carbon credit cards’ …. we deposit our money into them ,and they (Unelected Nutters) can withdraw money to fund ‘save the planet’ projects ?
They can call it the new ‘Kumbaya Credit Card ‘ !
I bet Goldman & Sachs and fellow thieves from the international cartel of thieves would froth at the mouth over that one .
The CON21 BS fest continues …….
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Egor
I’ve done my bit
Home brewed this week
70
Summer snow in Tasmania is an indication that the Southern Ocean is cooling?
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/summer-snow-delighting-tasmanians-and-visitors/416691
111
We, and our neighbours, have had our fire going for several days this summer because it’s been so ‘warm’. We’ve managed to not light the fire for a number of days as it’s been ‘hot’ and didn’t want to waste wood.
92
Take note of the international strife surround the COP21 all those who either believe we are heading towards a One World Government or who are promoting the nefarious concept of a One World Government as the solution to all of mankind’s multitudinous problems.
Or more realistically the dreadful dream of a few outsize, scruple and morally deficient egos of taking total control of the world and its peoples.
This time around the dream of a global government purports to be the preventing of an almost immeasurable and supposed PREDICTED increase in global temperatures suposedly from mankind’s activities in releasing a minor atmospheric gas from the burning of fossil fuels.
The fossil fuels, coal in particular and oil and gas are the essential to civilisation sources where this gas, CO2 had been sequestered, had been fixed and locked up from the atmosphere through by the laying down of the incredible carbon containing plant growth that transformed over the aeons into vast deposits of coal in times that go back some 150 million years ago.
It is now about how wealth much can be extracted from who and which kleptocrat or groups of kleptocrats gets to grab as much of that supposed OPM as they can get their dirty finger nails into.
It is about who is the biggest bully or gang of bullies that get to say who can build power plants and what they will be permitted to use as fuel in those power plants.
It is about who can thieve as much advanced technology from somebody else as they can without paying a cent over to help cover the huge expenses that were needed to get that technology up, running and reliable.
And this is at the level of a mere a kindergarten playground fracas and contretemps between ego driven, over sexed, over there supposed [ ? ] grown ups about a minor atmospheric gas and who gets blamed for it, who gets to release even more of it and who the hell will be responsible for fixing it.
Which of course is why they are all there, to allocate blame, collect the wealth and demand that somebody do something and it had better be you who does it or else, as any mob of school yard bullies would shout at their victims!
Thats if the purported problem, still unproven and still unseen after 25 years and a trillion dollars of research and subsidies to so called renewable power generators that work occasionally if at all and are not renewable, ever needs fixing which many, including a goodly proportion of the warring kindergarten level kleptocratic Paris-ites aren’t even worried about fixing if they can come to some agreement that ensures they can be bought off with lots and lots and lots of OPM.
For the Global Government pimps the shenanigans at the Paris COP is just a tiny taste of what you will get IF you ever try to impose an overarching dictatorial global government for any reason at all onto the races, nations, tribes and multitudinous peoples of every shade of skin, politics, culture and religion on this Earth.
George Orwell in his book 1984 written in 1948 and 1949 when Soviet communism under Stalin was advancing without any apparent restrictions from the western capitalist world probably got the world divided up into the least number of Superstates that could survive on this planet.
Oceania , the former USA and South America and Britain known as Airstrip One,
Eurasia with Europe and north Asia conquered and controlled by the Soviets .
And Eastasia , Asia and SE Asia.
All constantly at war with one another which would just about be an identical outcome if a One World Government was attempted to be forcibly imposed on the nations and peoples of the Earth today..
90
Apparently the IPCC AR5 cannot differentiate between CO2 molecules, which is unfortunate because CO2 levels appear to have stalled.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2654191
51
00
Enigmatic?
I was trying to post an image but my attempt did not work
20
The visual image you cannot see? Very Zen.
20
A draft agreement to avert climate change has been completed in Paris by world leaders, thank goodness for that, everyone can relax now as our greatest threat to humanity is now under control, this certainly will go down as the moment humans saved themselves through believing in each other, through the culmination of centuries of learning in science, faiths, philosophy and conscience, when the majority chose to turn the light on before the darkest hour through the illumination of love for the planet and each other.
Followed by the biggest F%$#ing /SARC. imaginable!
90
Yonnie
You and others have had a salute
https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/standing-alone-on-the-bridge/
70
A sceptical gladiators greeting to warmists.
50
So this is how sovereignty and capitalism ends; to rapturous applause.
Regional production targets, global stocktakes, five year plans, and public taxes sent to Least Developed Countries to build up their “capacity”. Global communism in all bar name.
That signal would have to be from the pal-reviewed journal Nature, not the real world nature.
If the developing countries see even half of the $100 billion that has just been pledged I will be surprised. Even as an act of charity this UN redistribution of wealth will be one of the least efficient charities in the world.
But we do get to monitor whether this is all needed.
LUCKY IT HAS AN EXIT CLAUSE
So in 2020 when it has become obvious the world is cooling and the radiosonde WVEL descent evidence can’t be silenced, we can give 1 year’s notice to the Secretary General and by 2022 we no longer have to pay the dole to the 3rd world to solve a non-problem.
It would just be a whole lot more responsible, logical, and efficient if they could just take notice of the best available science today that shows global warming won’t be a problem and just don’t sign the Agreement in the first place. But in about 7 hours or less we will find out what has been stitched up behind the scenes and whether we’ll be paying for white elephants in the Maldives.
140
Hmm, dramatic statements of doom perhaps not quite necessary yet.
I Am Not A Lawyer, but… it seems like they aren’t even going to sign anything binding until next year:
So no matter what Australia and the other serfs announce in the next 7 hours, there is a 4 month cooling off period between now and the earliest date this Agreement can actually be ratified.
Draft is on UN web site. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf
90
Let’s hope that the Liberal party tells Turnbull that if he wants to remain party leader, he must not sign.
Being PM is his one big thing… anything else is immaterial to him.
70
I believe it is the Nats that Turnbull should be aware of.
A tip…something is brewing and will be served (cold) in the new year.
80
The Nats will walk if Talcum does something completely stoopid.
Keys words to soothe the savage beast: China, FTA, infrastructure and decentralisation.
40
That gives David and Jo another year to get David’s work out their to “put the cat among the pigeons” and have a dramatic effect.
50
I think it’s going to be signed in April 2016? That’s only three months… 😐
20
How is it that these drongos do not know about the cyclones, floods, tsunamis, earthquakes and other natural disasters that occurred prior to 1950 (when WE became the cause)?
If any of these events occur after we reach Ban Ki Moon’s climate resilient future, can we sue him?
60
“So in 2020 when it has become obvious the world is cooling and the radiosonde WVEL descent evidence can’t be silenced, we can give 1 year’s notice to the Secretary General and by 2022 we no longer have to pay the dole to the 3rd world to solve a non-problem.”
And that’s when the final phase of what Michael Crichton described as the “green dragons and whiffle dust play” will come to pass. The world will cool as it was always going to and the climate heros like Gore etc will come out of the woodwork to claim credit for saving the planet. The level of CO2 present and the rate of increase in emissions at the time will make no difference to the argument because it will be predicated no more on facts then, than it is now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDCCvOv3qZY
30
indeed the whole CAGW scam is a “performance”. think of the MSM hoopla around the “high ambition coalition” or whatever, as if it had arisen overnight.
11 Dec: ClimateChangeNews: Ed King: Tony de Brum: The emerging climate champion at COP21
Marshall Islands minister credited with bringing US and EU together with vulnerable states in new ‘coalition of ambition’ at Paris talks
A genial 70-year old from the Marshall Islands looks set to be an unlikely hero at the Paris climate talks…
De Brum looked tired when he climbed the stage at a press conference on Wednesday. The creases in his face are now deep, the hair greyer than before.
But there was a twinkle in his eye, a smile matching the coral necklace he wears. That’s because the islander had become the conductor – of a coalition numbering over 100…
De Brum’s time in the limelight has days to go. He lost his seat in last week’s election
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/12/10/tony-de-brum-the-emerging-climate-champion-at-cop21/
Wikipedia: Politically, the Marshall Islands (population 72,) is a presidential republic in free association with the United States, with the US providing defense, subsidies, and access to U.S. based agencies such as the FCC and the USPS…The Compact of Free Association with the United States gives the U.S. sole responsibility for international defense of the Marshall Islands. It allows islanders to live and work in the United States and establishes economic and technical aid programs…The islands have few natural resources, and its imports far exceed exports…United States government assistance is the mainstay of the economy.
9 Dec: Guardian: Climate coalition breaks cover in Paris to push for binding and ambitious deal
by Karl Mathiesen and Fiona Harvey
A coalition representing more than 100 countries, formed in secrecy six months ago, has emerged at key UN talks in Paris to push for a legally binding global and ambitious deal on climate change…
Marshall Islands’ foreign minister, Tony de Brum, said the coalition had waited until it could have the most impact to make its work public…
The coalition was first formed over informal drinks on the sidelines of a climate meeting in Paris in July. Pablo Vieira Samper, Colombia’s deputy environment minister, said De Brum was the “brilliant mind behind it”.
A group of 15 foreign ministers, as well as Canete, has since met in secrecy at least three times, including one meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in September in a boardroom provided by the ***Rockerfeller(sic) family…
The group was initially known as “the informal ministerial gathering”, but (US chief negotiator Todd) Stern coined the name “the high ambition coalition” in a press conference on Monday…
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/08/coalition-paris-push-for-binding-ambitious-climate-change-deal
ABC darling, De Brum, got his moment in the COP21 spotlight, but didn’t really gain much for the Coalition in the draft text!
51
Good spot Pat. Now is revealed Obama’s brilliant coup to produce a legacy, in something that can be sold as a “final solution” to the problem of “climate change”. It is a deal which is so obviously impossible that the whole world will quietly ignore it, just go on talking inconsequentially whilst carrying on as before..
He has done this by bribing the small nations (many of whom are not “nations” in any but the legal meaning (i.e. recognised by the UN) but are in fact, dependencies, and as such cannot “develop” but alongside their protectors.
The “coalition of the ambitious” has made a play which China and India must either accept or walk away from and collapse the whole edifice, which they will not want to do.
Like Ronald Regan’s “star wars” (the Russians have been here before) it is a bluff that they cannot afford to call.
So today we will see a great triumph declared, the partying will start and a good time will be had by all – until they realise that nothing has happened.
It reminded my of one of my favourite one liners by Winston Churchill; Slumping deep in his cup (as usual) in the Members Bar he was accosted by the formidable battleaxe from Liverpool(exchange).
“Winston – you’re drunk!”
“Bessie – you’re ugly, but tomorrow I will be sober!”
70
Jo rightly points out above why the Paris talks are Grand Theatre. I would like to point readers to another reason. The claim that policy will make a big difference is based on faulty forecasts. It is not based on policy making a difference.
For instance, take a look at this graph of forecast fossil fuel emissions per capita from Climate Interactive (Site is .org and the extract is from their C-ROADS software RCP8.5 forecast. Fossil fuel emissions are about 80% of total GHG emissions)
https://manicbeancounter.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/ffems-tonpc.jpg
The global emissions I have divided into six categories (leaving out Rest of the World).
1. In the USA, where fossil fuel emissions per capita (FFEC) stopped peaked in the 1970s and have been falling, are forecast to rise for most of the century. Result – Any policy that claims a slight emissions cut will be far lower than the forecast.
2. For the rest of the OECD (including EU & Australia) the story is similar. Incorrectly forecasting rising FFEC means any policy to cut emissions by a tiny amount makes a huge difference.
3. Russia. FFEC are forecast to rise phenomenally. In reality they will peak by 2030 without action being taken.
4. China. Similar to Russia. China agrees that FFEC will peak by 2030. What is loudly trumpeted as their brave policy is actually doing nothing.
5. India is forecast to be an economic flop. The high economic growth of 6-8% per annum (with parallel emissions growth) will drop to 4% in 2015-2020 and then fall off. In the forecast India’s lack of policy is made far less significant than the likely reality.
6. Africa has had steady economic growth, and FFEC should start increasing in many countries by mid-century. In this forecast it does not.
Population forecasts play a role. US and Indian populations are forecast to rise this century; Russian and Chinese are forecast to fall; and Africans are set to triple in number. Part of the reason for these forecast figures is failing to compare total emissions forecasts with population growth forecasts. Checking the data is not something that climate experts are in the habit of doing.
Once adjustments are made to make forecasts more realistic, the impact of policy proposals becomes similar to estimates from the UNFCCC and Bjorn Lomborg. Near zero.
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Just imagine in 100 years time it will be ‘CON121’ where they will have 5th gen True B’lvers to carry on the Hysteria and Thievery !
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By that time it will be a full blown religion, complete with cathedrals and Sunday services. The True B’lvrs will look up and smile when they see frescoes of Al Gore and Rejandra Pachauri on the ceiling.
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Jo
Somewhat O/T
” Bubba Cow
December 11, 2015 at 11:42 am
and if Joe Public doesn’t ‘get it’, this piece by an historian/political studies guy pretty well hits it out of the park –
http://drrobertowens.com/2015/12/10/the-man-made-global-warming-hoax-part-deux/
”
From comments at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/11/cop21-talks-delayed-us-threatens-to-walk-out-of-paris-talks-if-financial-obligations-made-legally-binding/
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That’s rubbish Jo. Reducing absolute emissions is unaffordable but to reduce net emissions is easy. In fact all one has to do is wait. The increase in plant productivity since 1990 has ALREADY completely offset our industrial emissions. It only takes a few seasons for the biosphere to catch up with emissions.
Ironically the increase in Australia’s sinking capacity has been caused by chinas increased emissions. Australia’s emissions haven’t increased so no part of the rise from 380PPM to 400 PPM is our fault. I’m still waiting for my cheque from Xi Jinping for my part in sinking his countries emissions.
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As the latest great charade and luxurious meeting concludes it is time to reflect on the fact that no one has ever demonstrated that CO2 warms the surface of the planet. Some scientists who are not in thrall to the state say that CO2 does very little and what it does, on net, is cool rather than warm. Others claim that CO2 might have some marginal warming effect but it is so tiny that you will never be able to observe and measure it. Some say the whole CO2 warms the surface delusion violates the laws of thermodynamics.
Regardless of where a person stands on what CO2 may or may not do, we have to recognize that no scientist or group as yet demonstrated that going to, say, 1200 ppm of CO2 would have any detectable warming effect. Nor has anyone demonstrated that if there were a warming effect that it would be harmful to life on this planet. I was taught in the early grades of school that long ago the planet was far warmer than it is now and life did not end back due to the “excess heat”.
My god people, this whole thing is an anti-science farce.
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12 Dec: BusinessStandardIndia: Nitin Sethi: US pressure tactics work, clause excluding compensation option retained
Shifted out of sight from core agreement to another decision that 196 countries will sign at Paris summit
With the US refusing to budge, the French presidency has been forced to retain the clause in the Paris package that would block any prospects of the vulnerable to file a claim for compensation or liability in the future for loss and damage arising out of climate change.
To make it seem as if it’s disappeared, the clause has been removed from the core Paris agreement and added to what is called the decision text that 196 countries would also be required to accept in Paris…
Several country delegates that Business Standard spoke with said they had not been consulted during the process of negotiations for this clause but they were aware that the US had been engaged on it with the French presidency. They said there were a country or two that had participated in the talks with the host French and the US but they wished to not name these. Business Standard could not independently confirm this…ETC
http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/us-pressure-tactics-work-clause-excluding-compensation-option-retained-115121200365_1.html
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12 Dec: Guardian: Oliver Milman: James Hansen, father of climate change awareness, calls Paris talks ‘a fraud’
The former Nasa scientist criticizes the talks, intended to reach a new global deal on cutting carbon emissions beyond 2020, as ‘no action, just promises’
Mere mention of the Paris climate talks is enough to make James Hansen grumpy…
“It’s a fraud really, a fake,” he says, rubbing his head. “It’s just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”…
Brickbats are thrown in a bipartisan way. Hansen feels Obama, who has made climate change a legacy issue in his final year in office, has botched the opportunity to tackle the issue.
“We all foolishly had such high hopes for Obama, to articulate things, to be like Roosevelt and have fireside chats to explain to the public why we need to have a rising fee on carbon in order to move to clean energy,” he says. “But he’s not particularly good at that. He didn’t make it a priority and now it’s too late for him.”
Hansen is just as scathing of leading Republicans who have embraced climate science denialism to the chagrin of some party elders…
“It’s all embarrassing really,” Hansen says. “After a while you realise as a scientist that politicians don’t act rationally. ..
…Hansen believes China, the world’s largest emitter, will now step up to provide the leadership lacking from the US…
“I think we will get there because China is rational,” Hansen says…It’s so bad in their cities they need to move to clean energies. They realise it’s not a hoax…
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud
Thanks Pat. I think Hansen deserves some kudos for spotting the PR. – jo
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Jim Hansen is obviously nostalgic about a “real fire”… 😮
his comment about Chinese cities filled with smog as the reason they need cleaner energy is totally misleading.
He’s dead Jim ! …. from sulphur not CO2
The British did the same thing to London in 1952 as the Chinese are doing now. If you burn coal in massive quantities in the inner city you get smog.
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The Greens and their ‘major success’,
Is then bought by the gullible press,
As for ‘carbon’ emissions,
On climate conditions,
These Earth-savers couldn’t care less.
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Reading through comments , i don’t think that ( in my view ) some of you have fully understood the position of the American leadership on COP21 , the last thing that Obama and Kerry want is for the likes of Russia , China and India to climb on board and work towards any strong binding agreements , because if they did that would only expose the weakness of Obama and Kerry’s position back home , they know that if there was a strong agreement supported by the likes of Russia etc and ratified at COP21 , they would have to take it through the democratic process and Congress , standing little chance of success against the Republican majority , they need to keep to their plans of avoiding democracy by bringing in what they want through regulatory bodies that they control such as the EPA , so its not COP21 agreement with other major industrialized Nations that Obama wants , its COP-OUT21 agreement they need .
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According to WUWT..
The final draft says countries will aim “to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century”.
That puts Australia in an interesting position…
… because we are already a net carbon sink. 🙂
We need to produce more CO2 to get it back into balance. 🙂
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ps.. I foresee a new era of massive carbon accounting ƑɌȂƲƉ. 🙂
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As in a type of “Carbon Envy”?
Oh sorry I read ‘Freud’, glasses were dirty.
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In defense of PAT , i for one very much appreciate his tireless efforts in bringing to us news and links that i would not otherwise be aware of , thanks PAT , and of course you could always skip his comments if you wish to , as for off topic comments in general , can i suggest a compromise , would it be possible to have ” weekend unthreaded ” run for the whole week , perhaps as a ” sticky ” in a sidebar .
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I am with you Dave.
Thanks Pat!
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I am going to wait for Jo’s analysis of the final draft of the COP21 agreement and even though the gavel has been “banged” so to speak ..
I just wanted to say to the delegates good night and now please checkout of your hotels you are clogging up Paris for the real tourists.
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So does this mean that there are thousands of climate scientists out of work ? The science is settled and the agreement is made –it is all fixed ! Fantastic. Al Gore can fade into obscurity, all those activists will have to pay for their own holidays etc. etc.
/sarc
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More importantly Ross , can rational people now get on with their lives free of government interference /taxation in pursuit of the unattainable?
I think so.
For myself, I have had my dairy business exempted from the NZ ETS , and subsequently deregistered.
I am driving an electric vehicle (Mitsi Outlander) which enables me to almost completely avoid ETS charges on petrol.
That just leaves the imposition on diesel fuel for the tractors. Zero cropping , and pasture maintenance by “hoof and tooth” (predominantly) should minimise any effect.
And significant progress was made at this conference with Kerry admitting that climate would be unaffected , and the Chinese pointing out that posturing was the sole reason to be there anyway.
What is not to like?
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Sorry farmerbraun , I think it will be just business as usual. Those scientists will turn up to work on Monday and start filling out the forms for more grants. NZ agreed to US$200 million for some thing –not sure when it is paid but it partly comes out your pocket.( but as Tony points out elsewhere this agreement does not come into play until 2020)
When more people buy electric cars ( if they do ) then we will need more electricity generation –where will it come from? The Greenies don’t more dams, maybe a bit more geothermal around, we don’t want any more hopeless windmills and I think solar only has use on an “individual house” basis which may take a little strain off demand.
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You know how the saying goes; “you can fool some of the people all of the time…..but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time”. Well, it’s missing something. You can fool enough of the people all of the time to gain the same end as fooling all of the people all of the time. That’s what is happening now. Russia and China are laughing at us while the Western world is self-destructing. When, not if, the US finally falls, the people of the US will only have themselves to blame, not Russia, nor China. Anyone who really believes in this climate change nonsense being sprouted by our masters in the West should either plead guilty for being either dumb, ignorant or anti-Western civilization. It never really was about CO2, it was and still is about power and control, and thus the loss of all our freedoms we so much enjoyed in the recent past. The sooner people wake up to this the better before it’s too late. One way is to continue supporting sites like Nova’s to spread the truth about the global warming hoax. On it’s own though won’t be enough. We also need politicians who will expose the global warming scam. After all, if of them and their respective parties follow the hoax, as they all do now, then what choice do voters have? The closest we got to one who even questioned the hoax was Abbott. Now we have a leader who is setting us back to Rudd’s plan of “saving the world”. Sorry but it’s not looking good for us in the foreseeable future. I hate to be pessimistic but one must be a realistic. I rather call a spade a spade, not a flower, and I don’t like sand in my ears and eyes by sticking my head in the sand.
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My interest is Malcolm’s absolute requirement for an ETS. It is not as if he has backed away from his requirement.
Turnbull’s leadership of the Liberal party was lost because of his absolute demand for an ETS. This is not the same as believing in man made Global Warming, it is about believing in the power of his old company, Goldmann Sachs Australia to make a fortune trading in carbon credits.
Goldmann Sachs were called out in the US as the biggest profiteers in selling the worthless mortgages which caused the GFC. So our Malcolm left Goldmann Sachs with his fortune and set his sights on becoming PM, a job he then lost because of his absolute requirement for an ETS and managed to get anyway by a mid term political assassination with his friends, Bishop and Morrison and ‘his’ ABC.
Now what will happen on Malcolm’s return from Paris? Julie Bishop, chair of one session is already claiming carbon trading is the way to go as noted above, supported by her friends at the UN and her Prime Minister? The Australian public will be snookered with the Coalition and Labor and the Greens all pushing an ETS the public does not want and we were promised by both sides we would not have. Positioned as a ‘Trading System’ it sounds innocent like a ‘Mortgage Derivative’.
However if it is quickly made law, it will not be removed at the next election and the UN will have achieved the two goals predicted by Lord Monckton earlier this year, removal of Tony Abbott and so a carbon tax in Australia. The same in Canada, his other prediction. The Liberals under Malcolm might have to go alone without the National Party, but it will pass parliament, regardless of what the people of Australia think. We need Tony Abbott back. Now.
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Did Monckton also predict that Tony would make a comeback?
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Please tell us it is more than a rumour. If you are allowed to, that is.
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I’m pretty sure Christopher made the prediction that Tony will make a comeback. I haven’t heard any such rumour…yet.
Rumours are tools perpetuated on the useful idiots (MSM) to destabilise, timing is important. I left an arcane tip on this page.
OT…maybe. The first iron ore shipment from Roy Hill has sailed this week. I’ve received the images. So has all ANDEV members and our political list.
Will history repeat? We’ll see.
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‘Will history repeat?’
Tony will need to rediscover the road to Damascus and not recant for political expediency.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/politics/the-town-that-turned-up-the-temperature/story-e6frgczf-1225809567009
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Monckton is wrong, Turnbull has the numbers in the Party Room and will continue to build on that in the years ahead.
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scaper I asked you about this 11/10/15 on a weekend unthreaded http://joannenova.com.au/2015/10/weekend-unthreaded-96/#comment-1752844 the juicy bit is at the 15 minute mark.
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For scaper @ #29.1
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Well, Christopher Monckton got the other two predictions right.
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You’ve been pretty accurate also so once again my hopes are up.
Also I’ve been amazed at the number of long term ALP supporters that openly admit they would like to see Tony Abbott back in the job after seeing the flaccid responses of politics from both sides to other concerning problems developing in Australia, the line is usually “I don’t like him but he’s the best man for the job” type of comment.
People are realising patriotism is not racism.
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OK here it is..NOT only is there absolutely NO GH effect the REAL deal is that oil ISNT a fossil fuel.
http://principia-scientific.org/russians-nasa-discredit-fossil-fuel-theory-demise-of-junk-co2-science/
“Oil – Our Greatest Natural Renewable Energy Source
Exploiting their cutting-edge technology Russia has successfully discovered numerous petroleum fields, a number of which produce either partly or entirely from a crystalline basement and which appears distinctly self-replenishing. Yes, you read that right – Russia enjoys the best naturally renewable energy source – petroleum! No billions wasted on wind farms, solar or wave white elephants here.
Indeed, to our former soviet cousins, the idea of ‘peak oil’ is laughable because, if they’re calculations are right, oil is the most bountiful, most efficient and cheapest renewable fuel and will last at least for many hundreds of years to come.”
“I searched the internet including Google Scholar and there seems to be no ‘absolute proof’ or support from direct modern research for the Biogenic Theory of oil and gas formation. This theory — for want of a better word — seems to be greatly ‘assumed’ by geologists throughout geological research.”
etc etc.
The Russians have known this for years. As the paper says they are well ahead in oil and gas exploration and have the money in the banks to prove it.
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The grand spectacle we call COP(x) that occurs way too often has nothing to do with science and it has nothing to do with carbon dioxide and it has nothing to do with PR. The intent of COP(x) is always the same – to make the world “believe” we need to do something before turning our world into another Venus and to prove that sovereign nations can’t get together to do it as they are too motivated by their own needs, not the world’s. To pretend that is not the purpose behind this ruse is as effective as the ruse itself.
By that I simply mean the reason for these dog and pony shows is to show the world that to protect all civilization and the planet itself, we NEED a world government, complete with the power to enforce its edicts all the way down to the individual. A one world government so powerful that whatever it says must be done, and no sovereign nation can be allowed to exist in such a world. And no individual freedom can be allowed to exist in such a world, either, and that government will be run by those few who are so gifted in understanding the needs of the planet and civilization, but no others need apply or send suggestions. If you think otherwise, you are aiding them to create a true “hell on Earth” for the vast majority of humanity – and the animal and plant kingdoms as well. The world will be created in the image within their minds, not ours.
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