JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
NOAA just announced that the world just had the warmest July ever (again, sigh) but what I would like to know if we only averaged the stations, or converted the temps to energy and then averaged the energy and converted that back to temp, what we would really get?
Just a simple question. (And yes I know there are a zillion reasons for not doing this but still.)
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For a world such as this Earth, You would obtain a temperature history of about 6 locations at each of 12 different latitudes at 2 hour intervals each indexed by local time of day. This gives a total of 315,360 measurements per year. If daily lunar effect is to be suppressed, average all six per latitude for temp relative to insolation (TOD), for reduction to 52560 measurements per year. This will map into a 12 x 12 x 365 (or less) de-rotated annual histogram of Earth’s inclination/orbit. Observe the vast temperature differences in both latitude and NS hemispheres. Further observe the very regular TOD sinusoidal variations. This especially diurnal temperature swing, should convince all that further aggregation of temperature data to some arbitrary average can result only in a complete loss of meaning.
This little, is enough to start investigating what else can be learned from the very same 315360 measurements per year,by dissecting/combining from a different POV. You can start your guessing now. The idea here is observe, deduce, plan to measure, then measure. From the planned measurements induce conjecture/hypothesis to glean additional inductive/insight of what information is present/absent from that set of data. Such must be done way way before any even conjecture of the “WHY” of what is observed/measured! A methodological what is, when, and where must be established first! A method of observation begins the learning process.
What the meteorologists, Climate Clowns, have done so far is the complete opposite of any physical science methodology! They only plagiarize (with attribute) each others writings. Way past time to flush all the nonsense data, and to flush all the obviously incompetent data takers/analysts. Bye bye, hope you can learn enough to become a fry cook at Burger King!
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It is a shame that you felt compelled to make that parting shot. It adds nothing to what preceeded it, and only creates an extremely poor impression regarding you and your integrity.
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RW,
The parting shot is my integrity! The rest is just opinion! Sometimes I write:
All the best! -will-
35
“but what I would like to know if we only averaged the stations, or converted the temps to energy and then averaged the energy and converted that back to temp, what we would really get?”
If you convert surface temperature to flux to average flux then back to temperature, you get nothing additional as there is very little actual surface thermal radiant flux. Most all radiant exitance originates from the atmosphere not the surface. The radiant exitance from the atmosphere can be measured, kinda, sorta, by satellite, but they insist on not producing data from the poles, even tho they look at each once per orbit. Perhaps someone will ask Dr. R Spencer why such data is suppressed. Even the rest of the data is generally presented only as some sort of global average temperature anomaly, for media sound-bites, rather than the measured flux as a function of location. That variance by latitude and TOD holds all the useful information.
All the best! -will-
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NOAA and NASA have totally fraudulently altered the temp data to reduce the hottest 20th cent period recorded, the 1930s, to make the present warmer that it is. See iceap.us.
43
UHA has July 2016 as second warmest in 38 years, after 1998.
RSS has 2016 in 3rd place after 1998 and 2010.
GISS and HadCrut bear little relation to REALITY and are useful only for the purpose they were fabricated….
….. that being CLIMATE PROPAGANDA
179
Sea level is a reasonable proxy for available energy stored over the Earth. It goes up as the Earth warms due to thermal expansion of water and melting of land based ice. It lowers when the water contracts as it cools and more ice is formed on land.
There is a reasonable record of tide gauges over the last 150 years that shows ocean levels are rising:
http://www.oceanclimatechange.org.au/content/images/uploads/2012_sea_level_fig1.jpg
There are other factors involved such as land subsidence and uplift for some gauges so this is noise in the system. Another contributor to the noise is the amount of water dumped on land during intense and persistence stormy periods such as La Nina periods in Australia.
So there is no doubt that the available energy in Earths biosphere has been steadily increasing over the last 150 years. The cause of the increase energy is unknown. Clearly it cannot be due to added CO2 in the atmosphere because it would be flat prior to mid 20th century then showing some rapid acceleration over the last decade or so.
In terms of historical variation the present ocean level is near a high point of the scale:
http://www.poletopolecampaign.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Figure-2.8-2-Sea-level-and-antarctic-air-temperature.jpg
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Rick as the sea levels seem to have risen at times the planet was cooling, is it possible that water is raining in from space in comet dust etc?
11
The thermal expansion and ice stored on land have very long time constants and geographic spread so there is likely phase shift between the energy stored and the temperature measured or inferred at some particular location.
The deep ocean, below 2000m has been determined to be still cooling while above 2000 has been warming:
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/clip_image003_thumb.png?w=624&h=540
Giving an overall increase in energy up to 2010 according to this data. Ocean mixing is an extremely slow process in terms of human time frames. Near all the available energy in the biosphere is stored in water and it has massive thermal capacity. Changes to the heat balance on the earth surface will take thousands of years to stabilise. If added CO2 was able to increase heat input by 3W/sq.m it will take hundreds of years to make a discernible difference.
There is some theory that ice ages occur due to harmonics of the oceans rather than the variation in solar intensity:
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/ancient-ocean-currents-may-have-changed-pacing-and-intensity-ice-ages
Water is by a long margin the most important factor in earths climate; a close second to the sun.
Anything from space that hits an ocean will increase water level. Would take a large object or large number smaller objects to make a measurable change. There is also a small loss of water to space that will add up over the long history of the planet.
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I looked at what might be an upper estimate for cosmic dust of 100Cu.m/day based on imprecise measurements. That rate would cause oceans to rise 7mm per hundred years if equally distributed over the surface. So not insignificant if the rate of dust arriving is that high. It would need to have substantial variation over time to alter the linkage between total water stored energy as expressed by sea level and average temperature across the globe. Not impossible though.
41
The rate of cosmic dust and debris reaching the earth per day is a mere 60 tons.
I can’t see how that would lead to a sea level rise of .7 mm a decade.http://www.popsci.com.au/space/55-tonnes-of-cosmic-dust-fall-to-earth-every-day,401674
The more dust, if we were to enter another inter spiral dust cloud, would lead to global cooling and sea level falling as the ice caps and glaciers extended.
If you are talking about spreading 60 tons of dust a day over the earth’s surface I can’t see how that would fill the oceans and make them rise.
10
I could not find any definitive data on measured cosmic dust. The 100Cu.m/day was the top end of data I found.
Then I left out a 10E6 in the calculation so it is trivial in terms of sea level contribution.
00
More outright lies by someone elses ABC with regards to BP drilling in the Great Australian Bight. It sickens and disgusts me to see such things being paid for with tax revenue.
What was the particular outright lie which caught my attention? The claim that BP “failed to win regulatory approval”. it can only be a failure if they are rejected, and they have not been rejected.
Directly quoting the regulatory body, NOPSEMA (National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority): “…On 16 May 2016, NOPSEMA provided BP an opportunity to modify and resubmit their environment plan for exploration drilling in the Great Australian Bight. On 12 July, NOPSEMA granted BP’s request for an extension of the timeframe for resubmission so they may address the matters raised by NOPSEMA in the assessment. The modified plan is now expected to be resubmitted by 31 August, at which time NOPSEMA will recommence the assessment…”
Using the criteria defined by NOPSEMA, this is not a rejection, nor is this is a failure to win regulatory approval.
Again, quoting NOSEMA, from their freely available 2015 annual offshore performance report:
“…During the assessment of an environment plan, NOPSEMA may request further information from the titleholder and/or may determine that the environment plan does not meet the acceptance criteria in the environment regulations and must provide the titleholder with an opportunity to modify and resubmit the environment plan. NOPSEMA’s policy is that titleholders will be given two opportunities to modify and resubmit an environment plan before any decision to refuse it is made by NOPSEMA…”
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But that’s just typical of ABC. Better off getting the news from The Onion.. 😉
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And as I understand it, if they have had the two opportunities to resubmit, and still fail to meet the required timeframe deadlines, they can still start the process again, with ‘a new’ environment plan. I would be happy if somebody can confirm this, or correct me, if I am wrong.
30
Will all those who oppose the search for more oil and gas please cease forthwith their use of the currently available resources. Saw a four wheel car this morning speeding along the highway with a sticker “stop coal seam gas”. Maybe they should stop consuming fossil fuels and try riding a donkey.
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It was the hottest June day EVER recorded in the state of New Jersey. How do we know it was? General Sir Henry Clinton, who had a quality weather measurement kit, recorded it in his war diary. It was during the Battle of Monmouth the year 1778, 238 years ago. Sir Henry recorded that it was 96 degrees Fahrenheit at 12:00 noon. Meteorologists say that a few hours later with the maximum heating of the day, that the temperature would certainly have been in excess of 100 degrees Fahrenheit. I noticed in a documentary that a modern meteorologist commenting on the data to paraphrase: “That would be the hottest June day ever recorded in the State of New Jersey.”
Casualty records support this conclusion. Among Cornwallis’ rear guard command there were 64 KIA, and 59 dead by heat stroke. Among George Washington’s casualties were 39 dead from heat stroke.
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Coincidence perhaps, exactly one hundred years later 1878 is believed to be one of the hottest years in recorded history.
40
New Jersey’s Hottest temp according to Wikipedia:
New Jersey 110 °F / 43 °C July 10, 1936 Runyon, NJ
20
I don’t doubt it. 1936 was an extremely hot year through out the United States. From what I understand what we have seen in recent years pales in comparison to 1936. The meteorologists consulted in the documentary did express that as their opinions, based on their estimates from Sir Henry’s and other reports.
20
It comes down to this …
Man tells psychologically disturbed people there is NO doomsday.
Psychologically disturbed people call man “loony”.
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That’s funny.
A red thumb.
If every person in favour of a carbon tax just went to their doctor for an assisted suicide note, the planet could be saved.
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Thanks for the laugh handjive, nicely put. 🙂
Did you know 97% of doctors agree that breathing is essential for humans to stay alive?
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What is the position of the remaining 3% of doctors? Oh, I see…must believe in global warming!
Quack like a duck comes to mind.
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That’s what they tell you. But in actual fact, considerable evidence reveals that the opposite is true. Recent statistical studies (which I refuse to provide, but [waves hands] which are really, really robust) from the UEA, shew that breathing correlates positively with death, with a correlation factor (r²) of 1.00, and using a standard lag of 100 years.
Yes, It’s worse than we thought, and it’s not inconsistent with CO2 being the deadly pollutant we’ve said it is. Breathing CO2 causes death, and the sooner you stop breathing, the sooner everyone will live forever in workers’ Socialist paradise, just like Stalinist Russia, Nazi Germany, and Chavezist Venezuela. Well, it will seem forever.
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🙂
Well put Jorge.
But to be scientifically correct, at the end of life, it is the reverse.
A lowering of CO2 in the bloodstream and an increase of O2 (alkylosis) leads to the end.
KK
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The number one cause of death is life.
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It is a symbiotic relatonship – you can never get out if it alive.
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They say it’s sexually transmitted.
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And right there is the problem – they breathe out that evil, polluting CO2 that is destroying the planet./sarc
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Olympic Size Goal Post Moving …
Sep 30, 2009: Olympics-2016 Games could be the last, says Tokyo governor
“Global warming is getting worse.
“It could be that the 2016 Games are the last Olympics in the history of mankind,” Ishihara told reporters.
Scientists have said we have passed the point of no return,” said Ishihara.
>> Fast Forward >>
August 5, 2016: In Olympics opening ceremony, Brazil goes big on [Global Warming]
. . .
It’s a Gold Medal For 97% Junk Science Goal Post Moving!
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“Games could be the last..”
Will there be any athletes left that haven’t lost limbs due to infection.?
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And another one from Their ABC: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-07/carteret-climate-refugees-new-home/7693950
However, it’s interesting to read about the Carteret Islands:
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ABC was peddling this back in 2003: http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s866600.htm and in 2007: http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2007/s1865416.htm ” …. It’s estimated that by 2015, the Carterets will disappear.” Uh-oh. Time to recycle the story.
The islands lie in one of the most complex tectonic areas of the earth. They sit next to a plate convergence zone at the boundary of the Pacific Plate, Indo-Australian Plate, and South Bismark Plate on a subduction zone next to the New Hebrides Trench (Bougainville Trench), where the earth’s crust is disappearing. “The islanders on the Carterets are victims of what other people have caused … “.
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The islanders have a history with overpopulation and using dynamite as fishing bait and as such were labelled reef destroyers by a UN envoy to Bouganville while the hostility with the mine was going on .
As we know most of these low lying islands that are “sinking” are suffering from reef destruction caused by man not SUVs .
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Islands come and islands go in the pacific. In the last century some mapped islands have disappeared, especially North of PNG.
Coral only lives at sea level. As Charles Darwin suggested and he was right, coral atolls are on top of sinking islands and in the bikini islands, drilling has shown the coral is km thick. Then many islands in the pacific including New Zealand and even Taiwan were really only populated in the last thousand years, so it is risky living. The Jesuits had a plan to populate storm devastated and largely unpopulated Taiwan/Formosa with Pacific islanders from Hawaii, many of whom were in fact Japanese. So the story is very confused but while living in tropical paradise is attractive, there is often no fresh water and the huge storms can drown whole populations, so it is a dangerous life. Then so is living in Florida with an average 15 hurricanes a year. All caused by Global Warming Climate Change coal burning apparently.
All storms will stop if people stop driving cars. Gaia is angry and only a dead kangaroo professional can read the mind of the planet. This makes the ancient Greek Oracle of Delphi belief seem quite reasonable.
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Another ABC one:
ABC iview, Australiawide, 6/08/2016;
@1.19 minutes – Western Australia, West River, 500km south of Perth: Off the Grid
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Chances are that, removing the islanders elsewhere, will show a marked improvement in the island ecosystems. Perhaps it should be a regular occurrance?
51
Attended the Andrew Bolt book launch in Brisbane on Friday night. We had a front row seat, sat next to Jen. She’s looking good and bubbly as ever.
Andrew was very impressive…pretty humble in my opinion and it astonishes me how he is so demonised by the left and so called, “middle”. the truth hurts those people. Rowan Dean was in great form and I’d say the audience had a most enjoyable time.
Did dinner after with a friend I made travelling in the Convoy of no Confidence. Gee, that was almost five years ago! Ruth asked me a question that I could not answer…”What do you believe will be the trigger for Turnbull’s downfall?”
I had no answer. After much thought I believe the trigger could be Turnbull cooperating with the Greens in the Senate, which would inflame not only the remaining base but also the ‘Malrids’ in the party room. Believe me, there are more there than we believe. One of them (front bench) attended the book launch and was supportive of Andrew’s declaration that Turnbull should not be Prime Minister!
I’d be very interested in the thoughts on the trigger from the good people here. It would help.
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Oh, another question to ponder…”What is Cory’s intention in forming the Conservatives?” I believe both questions are intrinsically linked.
Whatever, I believe the downfall will require the effort of the grassroots to achieve such. Just like we did last time.
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The trigger would have to be the PM’s determination to woo the Greens and ignore the independents and Hansonites.
Presumably the government could then easily pass legislation through the Senate without concern, leaving Cory and the Malrids an unimportant rump.
Its crystal clear that Malcolm intends to remain leader for a decade by purging the right from the Party, then getting the support of the Greens and Nats with a Trans Continental VFT and building new cities in the outback.
The pseudo Marxist Greens and agrarian socialist Nationals will sup with the devil.
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That’s so the bush fire can do a REALLY good job.
21
If Turnbull goes down that road, he will not win the next election. We got the balance absolutely spot on this time. If he does not heed the lesson, we will go to the next stage the next time, and by then there just might be a Conservative party that just might hold the balance of power in the lower house. Interesting times!
20
Over at Sportsbet the punters are plunging on Malcolm Turnbull to be the next politician to fall on his sword. Bill Shorten is not far behind, with Richard Di Natale and Barnaby Joyce looking safe.
Its hard to read the political mind, but do you think it possible that Cory will form a breakaway party?
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Seeing people base their view of the world on what Sportsbet is saying is a refreshing improvement on seeing people quote GWPF PR.
I always thought you were a cut above the rest El Gordo.
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I always thought you were a cut below everybody.
A non-entity.
And you keep proving it.
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Why remain silent and be thought a fool when you can speak out and remove all doubt?And Craig,you keep proving that every time you come here.
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That was meant to be a red thumb…small ‘phone keyboard.
00
‘Oh, another question to ponder…’
The further the Party moves to the green left, the conservative Liberal movement should theoretically grow.
Of course if Turnbull pulls a rabbit out of the hat (such as huge infrastructure spending accompanied by bread and circuses) then it might put a damper on the movement’s growth.
21
It took one meeting to remove our elected Prime Minister last time. Why not another one?
There was no proof of Abbott’s failure to woo the electorate last time and in fact Turnbull and Bishop had to strike before the byelection in Canning proved the opposite.
There is now hard proof that Turnbull is very unpopular, even with his own side and no one on the other side will vote for him anyway. He is the most popular Liberal leader in history, given that he is popular with the other side of politics only.
So surely the MPs can see they will follow humiliation with decimation at the next election if Turnbull is not long gone. You also have to think Abbott could work with the cross bench, if he can make peace with Hanson. With a masters degree in politics, Abbott knows the rules. With a degree in economics and law, he can fix the economy.
Born rich Turnbull with a one eyed view of the world can only find toadies who feed his ego. Anyone given $3Million at 28 can make money. It does not make him a genius. That was 50 terraces houses in cash. Too bad his supporters are in the media and all on the other side of politics and will never vote conservative. What did Australians do wrong to deserve two ultra rich arrogant dilletantes like Rudd and Turnbull, neither of whom appear to care in the slightest about Australia and Australians.
Liberals used to stand for small goverment, low taxation and law and order and strong defence. Twice now Turnbull has ducked the burials with honours of returned Australian soldiers, from Vietnam and France. Clearly Turnbull is anti war anti defence, like his mother’s famous Great Uncle George Lansbury who led the British Labor party in the 1930s, fought rearmament and met with Hitler, declaring him to be a really humble man with no ambitions.
Please, get rid of Turnbull. If there was ever justification for removing Abbott, there are a pile of reasons to get rid of Turnbull and right a great wrong.
Then perhaps Greg Hunt will not be forcing the head of the CSIRO to rehire people he fired, just to please the Greens.
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What was puzzling is that Kroeger and Textor told us we were irrelevant. They told us they were doing deals with the Greens. They told us that nothing traditional supporters of conservatives could do would stop them. Why? Why did they infuriate everyone before an election? Was it so certain that they really did not care and as I wrote, the only explanation was that a deal was done which guaranteed power.
Is it that they were doing the smart thing, business with the deadly opposition of everything conservative. Did they really think the Greens would drop Labor and form a coalition with Turnbulls Liberals? How wrong could they be? Di Natalie stitched them up then.
How can they still be in the jobs?
With so many of the plotters gone from politics, even if Peter Hendy is now Turnbull’s Chief Economist, why isn’t the Liberal party getting rid of the man who caused all the trouble? Rich banker Turnbull.
What hold does Turnbull hold over the Liberal party, or were the millions he put in not only effective bribery, but a loan they cannot repay? Or was he just a generous banker (Do I really need \sarc?) Why did they tell us he put in millions of his own money?
So is the Liberal party now so heavily in debt to Malcolm Turnbull? Does he own them? Did the heavyweights of the Liberal party actually mortgage the future to a Green banker on condition he had the leadership? Was Prime Ministership of Australia for sale? Did Malcolm buy the job?
Is that why we have to spend public money hiring back Climate Scientists in the CSIRO, so Turnbull can justify his ETS? Was that a condition? Something stinks in the state of Australia and it is in the Liberal party. Who owns it? Really, it is just a business now in massive debt to Turnbull.
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Then, how many millions of dollars of our money will be spent pleasing a man who only put in a million or two of his own money, presumably out of pure generosity? Does he now have the keys to the public purse? Really, did Malcolm Turnbull order Hunt to order the CSIRO to rehire those Climate Scientists costing us tens if not hundreds of millions simply so he could push his Emissions Trading Scheme? Is Australia for sale or has it already been sold?
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Donation to affect elections are obviously dangerous. So under Australian law, donations over $10,000 have to be disclosed and published.
For 2014-15
but 2015-16 does not appear to be released by the Australian Electoral Commission.
By far the biggest donation is $600,000 to the Liberal Party by Brusnwick Properties, then the usual set of rich people with many around $250,000. I expect that it is unprecedented for the incumbent Prime Minister to donate millions to secure his own election? It may also be improper as it looks very much like buying an election and the position. He is not at arms length from himself, you would think a requirement for potentially the largest political donation in the history of the Country, to bail out a destitute Liberal party, destitute partly because they put Turnbull in the job in the first place?
Or it wasn’t a donation but a loan from the Prime Minister and repayable by the country with interest. Surely that would be illegal? What are the terms? How can a Prime Minister set terms on his own loan to the government, a loan which is tiny compared to the expenditure he can now authorize. This is especially worrying with Climate Change and the CSIRO as he was head of Goldmann Sachs Australia who were directly involved in creating the GFC and a major beneficiary. They would also be a massive beneficiary of an ETS.
At what point does the AEC take an interest in Malcolm Turnbull and his donation of millions to secure his own election and then decisions in areas in which he is compromised, such as merchant banking of Carbon Credits?
Or didn’t he donate millions to secure his own election? What is the truth?
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The question is how Turnbull’s ‘donation’ is shown in the books of the Australian Liberal Party. A loan or a political donation? Can anyone find out? Each answer must raise serious question for the AEC and the very principles behind acceptance of political donations.
Can the Liberals afford to fire Turnbull?
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Hi TdeF, you have served up a lot of food for thought. I have just a couple things to throw into the mix.I will declare my hand and say that for the first time ever (50 yrs) I did not vote LNP. I believed at the time, that the Turnbull coup represented a seismic shift in Australian Politics, I.E the landscape has changed forever, they have crossed The Rubicon. Not withstanding,just like the stranger on the shore watching the ship sail out to sea, I have been watching for a sign of its return. So far all I have is a middle finger salute from the captain with his Hendy appointment and Hunts CSIRO shenanigans.I put a little hope in Frydenberg and even he is starting to sound like he’s been out to lunch with the windmillers. So, methinks my 50 year affair is over.
This is purely visceral but I’m suggesting that if one took any 5% slice of the political spectrum (excepting the extremes at either end) one would find that the ABCONS (abandoned conservatives) are rusted on to their spot in that spectrum.As you know most voters don’t get all that deep into politics and tend to vote through their wallett, or how someone looks, or whatever.
Textor and Turnbull badly miscalculated and it looks like they don’t want to admit it.
Just on your thought about Turnbull buying the Party, did he not campaign under the banner of “Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberals”. Just sayin’.
40
I don’t know what will trigger it or when it will happen. All I know for certain is that within 24 hours of it happening there will be a new Downfall parody of it on YouTube.
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Terrific, thanx Andrew.
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Hey scaper! It was great to catch up. I was in the audience when Andrew Bolt stated that in his opinion, Turnbull should not be PM. Everyone roared approval and clapped. It was yuge.
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Everyone I know has the same sentiment concerning Turnbull.
What I found telling was the respect that Andrew and everyone had in general, for the lone, self confessed lefty there. Imagine if the scenario was reversed? There would be mass hysteria and the mob would be calling for blood. The orcs wheeling out the cauldron of oil and the firewood!
The left has no class.
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‘The left has no class.’
* chuckle *
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That would be lost on the left.
30
It wouldn’t be lost on the left at all. The left would have seized on the grammar and attack, rather than address the comment. Oh.
Another observation…I have yet to see a lefty stray from the strict doctrine of global warming, gay marriage. refugees, Islam or any other topic.
Read around on the blogs. One would think that the comments were written by the same person.
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The Borg as a collective are one person.
10
And here’s another interesting one: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-07/kosciuszko-minister-vows-to-stop-brumbies-damaging-national-park/7695178
This sort of commentary wasn’t forthcoming from said groups when Victoria banned cattle in the High Country:
I go to the High Country frequently and the damage done by Brumbies and the growing number of wild deer is always evident. I don’t remember ever seeing the same when cattle were up there and the Brumby and deer numbers were small (over 30 years ago).
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Pig damage is terrible too
50
Feral goats are a problem as well, but I’ve not come across either in all my years of travelling the High Country. As an indication of how bad the deer problem is nowadays, there are deer warning signs along roads such as the Woods Point – Jamieson Road, unheard of less than a decade ago.
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Why have the numbers increased?
10
5 times in the last thousand years the sun has gone quiet. We know this from C14 & Be10 levels which go up as the solar wind weakens. Temperatures from the O18/O16 ratio, all well accepted science. For 2 of those times (Maunder & Dalton minimums) we have some temperature measurements, considerable anecdotal evidence as to their cold times; and observations of lengthy solar cycles with few sunspots.
The sun is showing few sunspots and this and the previous solar cycle are long. There can be little doubt that the next 20-30 years will be cooler. But I wonder how much cooler?
About 9000 years ago there was a solar maximum like the one that ended in 1968. The first lifted temperatures to the Holocene Climate Optimum which, with some cool dips, lasted for 4-5,000 years. For the last 2 Millenia the temperature has been slowly dropping and the recent solar maximum has not raised the temperature very much as we haven’t even matched the Medieval Warm period. So it looks like we are heading back into icy times. How long will it take? Who knows, but it may be quicker than we would like.
Of course there will still be a few cycles to go but each ‘warmer’ time will be cooler than the last. So it would seem that we can look towards something colder than the Dalton minimum but hopefully not quite as bad as the Maunder Minimum. That will certainly bring problems with agriculture and food shortages, with many millions of deaths. It would however also change the minds of those currently keen on getting into Northern Europe. Interesting times as the Chinese put it.
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South China sea
The latest news from the South China sea is that things are getting hotter there, it is in fact probably the only real man made warming that the planet is experiencing.
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🙂
31
Maybe Obama’s inaction on the artificial islands being built by China is due to advice that they will be submerged by rising sea levels before they become strategically inconvenient.
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Waiting for something of scientific enormity from Will and now we have it.
At 1.1 Will shows us a method of real measurement which involves firstly observation (measurement), treatment of data followed by an assessment of the results (conjecture or hypothesizing).
If you look at his proposed method you can immediately see the [[snip] incorrectness] of the Warmer method of assessing “Earth’s temperature and the consequent irrelevance of their claims.
KK
22
Just in case my wording above has caused any misunderstanding of the comment I offer the following in appreciation of Will’s contribution today.
The detail and layout of the method for producing a “global temperature ” was, to me, a brilliant find for a wet Sunday morning.
The detail provided contrasts markedly with what appears to be more or less random points on the surface of our planet being “selected” by those who have a propensity towards belief in man made global warming via increased CO2 levels.
And Rereke, there was a lot of wheat in that parcel, that’s what caught my eye, the tiny bit of chaff went almost unnoticed. 🙂
KK
22
Thanks Keith!
The idea here is to start with the minimum data set to learn what is, what needs to be measured, how to measure, how to validate those measurements. The first is guessing how many, where, when, how, for simple empirical 72 sites for temperature data for deductive generalization of what may be going on. That first guessing must include organization sufficient for the deductive generalization. This is not for hypothesis of ‘why’, but only for the necessary interplay between the data and the analysis.
Clearly for any actual useful analysis of this atmosphere 10,000 times that many sites with all manner of measurement, would be a minimum. Why try for that much data while having no clue as to what needs to be measured or how to organize such? One step at a time, else the current statistical nonsense, signifying nothing. If the “researchers” had started out with “I do not know”, but I know how to start learning 36 years ago, we now would have a reasonable as to what is, what is not, and some scale of what is still unknown! What we would not have today is all the abject fantasy of why what is actually is! Most times I do not know whether to wind my ass, or scratch my ass.
All the best! -will-
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OOPS!! scratch my watch! First mistook this hottest year! 🙂
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I have nothing of interest to add, just a short bleat on the coolness of the line
“Wind my ass or scratch my watch”
I’ve not heard that before, and I like it.
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So who’s going to take the plunge and fill out their census online? Remember they will then have your IP address forever unless you use a VPN or public outlet.
Has anyone tried to call the Census hotline? I’ve heard nobody can get through to request a paper form.
Just have to wait for a guy to show up then, assuming I’m home when he does. If not, I’m not chasing them.
The biggest grab for linked information and greatest privacy invasion in the history of Australia FYI.
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This whole census is a monumental stuff-up. I personally know of literally dozens of households in the Hunter region which have yet to receive any communication from the ABS. There are entire localities here where no one has received their census letter.
I am still waiting for my log-in number to appear in the mail. Phone calls result in a “we are unable to take your call” message. One woman who did get through to an operator was told her letter might be with someone down the street, trouble was, no one down the street had received their letters either.
My email to the ABS has also yet to be answered. If a significant proportion of the households in the country have not been able to participate in the census, the whole thing will have to be scrapped and re-done due to monumental incompetence.
How is it that the AEC can organise an election in a few weeks, but the boffins at the ABS can’t organise a census with years of advance warning? Hate to see what they would do to a chook raffle.
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If you can use a touch tone phone, you don’t have to talk to anyone. Took me 2 mins. I recommend doing it.
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The letter was Adressed as “resident of household” and disposed of as junk mail.
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We don’t have an address recognised by the census.
Its a lot number.
They have promised to send round a person with a census form.
I anticipate I will send it in by mail.
I note that cruise ship passengers just had them handed to them, as will street people.
The ads on TV showing an aged lady saying its much easier lodging on line are at least disingenuous.
It would be much better if they spent the money on actually showing aged people how to do it, presuming they have an internet connection, PC or device.
The results of this referendum can only be skewed to overestimate the number of tech savvy upwardly mobile people with a mailing address,PC and live internet connection at home or work.
The poor,disabled,unemployed, intellectually compromised or ill will drop off the data base, as they won’t lodge in proportion to their numbers.
It will be necessary to correct and validate the figures, particularly for key indicators such as unemployment.
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As I see it by lodging on line I’m the idiot doing the data entry for free and paying for the connection.
If I do the paper version it has to be scanned and the postage paid
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Brave new world.Time to hit the silk!
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Oh no Mal Roberts on Insiders this morning. That is so biased, I mean the One Nation representation on that show since the election is now significantly higher than major parties.
Area 52!
Election now!
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Barry is unprepared to talk about the settled science.
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Mal did an excellent job on the program and gave better than he got don’t write him off as a crackpot as the presstitutes and leftards are trying to do that .
If you didn’t see it you missed just how smart this guy is and it’s worth watching the repeat later today .
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What do you make of his adoration for Curtain and Chifley?
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He’s not smart because he doesn’t understand that attacking one of your few allies in front of a hostile audience is not a wise political move for a politician to make.
It’s great to remind people that public policy should be evidence-based.
It’s not okay to attack David Leyonhjelm personally for not having evidence-based policy on an ETS and “being the same as Labor and the Greens”, regardless of whether those charges are true but especially when neither of those charges are true. D.L. alluded to the only evidence he needs to ascertain degree of economic harm from the policy and the LibDem party are not even in the same quadrant of the political compass as either Labor or the Greens.
Compensating for that was his display of flexibility and humility in admitting he’d taken the wrong tact on a different issue once and was prepared to change when shown his approach was wrong. People don’t often see that done so buntly by pollys so his style may be received as refreshing.
He’s making good television though. For once there is some kind of voice of resistance against the Green/Left rot. It’s not perfect but I guess any step in the right sort of direction is better than none.
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I take it the Climate Council presented Insiders all the “goss” on climate séance,to give to Roberts.It would take a massive amount of patience to wade through the alarmist bilge that comes from that body.How about a debate CC? Nah.
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It is true of all three sides in the global warming debate that it is very quick and easy to overlook mistakes and fabricate nonsense but is very time-consuming and difficult to check and debunk falsehoods.
Most people take the easy option.
That is true of all three sides in the global warming debate.
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Andrew, I agree with you re his ‘attack’ on Lyonhjelm, which was not particularly smart. However he did get his point across on the need for empirical data and he took the wind out of old scr*tum face by taking over the questioning. Funny! I loved him handing his business card over and asking the ABC to let him know if they ever come up with some empirical evidence that man-made CO2 leads to global warming. For a newby he took control of the interview and did it well. He can only get better, as he is very confident in his knowledge of the “science”. He will be worth watching and the amount of publicity he is getting does not bode well for the ABC and its warmist fans, as he is coming out on top.
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What about his short pants? The cartoonists have their handle
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I am interested as to what people think about the claim in this linked article that by 2020 the ACT will have free or almost free energy due to windmills.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/act-could-make-windfall-gains-from-bold-100-renewables-target-56838
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Like you David , I’d be interested in comments on that piece. It seems to me to be some very clever playing with figures and other states have been “hood winked”.
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It’s a total crock – just like the ‘green energy’ option you can tick to pay more for your electricity.
They contract power from wind farms and total up the output from these farms as being ‘theirs’. Of course the power from the wind farms just goes into the general grid whenever they are producing while the ACT buys power from the general grid whenever they need it.
I have proposed several times that phase shifting, step up transformers transformers should be placed at the transmission lines at the borders of the ACT. Then the power passed into the ACT could be regulated to purely reflect the outputs from their contracted 100% renewable sources.
For the present, Hornsdale (100 MW) and C00nooer Bridge (19.4 MW) windfarms have been contracted so 119.4 MW of ACT demand, at any time, should be restricted to the output of these farms. Then, as an example, when demand is 550W, they should be allowed 430.6 MW from the Victorian and NSW grid + whatever Hornsdale & C00nooer Bridge are producing. Once the contracted 80.5 MW Ararat wind farm comes online, the same demand would be “met” by 350.1 MW of general Victorian and NSW generation + the output of these 3 wind farms.
How they cope with any shortfall (if, god forbid, that the wind farms ever produced less than their nameplate capacity) would be their business (and our entertainment).
Or if they argue a capacity factor of say 33% vs nameplate should be applied, then power from the wind farms should be multiplied by 3 for the sake of the “renewable” power transmission. While this would reduce the times where there would be a shortfall, there would be times where demand was low and the wind was strong so they would have to deal with overvoltages (hence the step up requirement for the transformers).
As an example, a mild but windy night might see demand down to 250 MW and a total (current) wind farm output of 98 MW. Then 294 MW would be pumped into the ACT grid and they could deal with the excess 44 MW as they see fit.
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Could be very useful to have Canberra “off the grid” when it’s cold and the wind isn’t blowing. Parliament by candlelight might teach some politicians a thing or two.
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Actually, I asked some questions in comments in the bottom of that article that Giles was not able to properly answer. So did George Papadopoulos. The evasions are typical of the renewables advocates.
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Thanks for the reminder, I just submitted a request for a paper version.
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A history question – Can anyone offer a hint for sources for weather information in Sydney and Parramatta on 17th October 1817.
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I scanned the Sydney Gazette of week ending 18th October and there is no specific mention of weather on that week but there is a letter mentioning flooding earlier that year:
http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/page/493535
http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/2177524/493539
Given the likely delay in communications and recording events it might be worth going for later editions if there was a significant weather event you are looking for.
If you happen to have a CGCM or know someone with access to one you could run it backwards from now to that date and it will give you the weather for that day with 97% certainty.
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Thanks, but. I already tried Trove and the Sydney Gazette. Can’t find anything via the State Records website. It’s a few years before the Parramatta Observatory. An item reporting on ship arrivals in the Hobart Town Gazette of 25th Oct gives a possibility that ships Henrietta Packet and Mermaid may have crossed paths near Sydney town on the target date. But I don’t think our archives has coastal shipping logs of that period.
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In a general sense there was a protracted El Niño event during 1814–1817, which was associated with prolonged drought.
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Thanks, but it’s really weather on that specific date that I hope to find.
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Sorry Gary, but I can’t help. I was out of town on that day.
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Me too. It’s the only day I was out of town in the last two centuries. I’d like to fill that gap in my records. Actually, that’s lie. It’s for a bit of context for historical research.
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Maybe there wasn’t any weather that day.
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links to the study i posted on jo’s “Brexit threatens…” thread – 2 Aug: PLOS ONE: Big Data Sensors of Organic Advocacy: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio and Climate Change – plus another, just as silly, on the “halo effect”:
6 Aug: Forbes: Marshall Shepherd: Why The Rio Olympics And Leonardo DiCaprio Get Your Attention
If you watched the Opening Ceremony of the Rio Olympics Friday evening, social media was buzzing about the bold inclusion of a segment on climate change…
I also noticed more activity on my social media platforms from people that normally do not talk about the topic. The overwhelming comments where things like “wow, that was a wake up call” or “that really stimulated a conversation with my kids.” On the same day, I read a study showing that Leonardo di Caprio’s speech about climate change at the Oscars strongly resonated with the public…
Heck, I even observe it on smaller scales. I am the former president of the American Meteorological Society. I am the director of a major University’s Atmospheric Sciences Program. I have a BS, MS, and PhD in meteorology. Yet, there are numerous times where I have noticed that someone in the public tends to place more value on the same information I may have provided if it comes from the TV meteorologist they are used to seeing or trust. Heck my own mother even did it to me once…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/06/why-the-rio-olympics-and-leonardo-dicaprio-get-your-attention-on-climate-change/#4479d01153a0
Writer’s Forbes’ bio: Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, a leading international expert in weather and climate, was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS) and is Director of the University of Georgia’s (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program. Dr. Shepherd is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and hosts The Weather Channel’s Sunday talk show Weather Geeks, Prior to UGA, Dr. Shepherd spent 12 years as a Research Meteorologist at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and was Deputy Project Scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. In 2004, he was honored at the White House with a prestigious PECASE award. Shepherd is frequently sought as an expert on weather and climate by major media outlets, the White House, and Congress. He has over 80 peer-reviewed scholarly publications and numerous editorials. Dr. Shepherd received his B.S., M.S. and PhD in physical meteorology from Florida State University.
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6 Aug: SMH: Greg Baum: First green, now gold: the climate changes in Rio
It might have been too strident for some, but it established one and perhaps both of two certainties, that sport and politics are joined at the hip, and always have been, and that the debate is no longer about whether to act on climate change, but how.
“The way in which human society organises itself has had a profound impact on the balance of life on Earth. Some effects are irreversible,” read the explanatory notes of film director ***Fernanro(sic) Meirelles and producer Daniela Thomas. “This is a warning for what awaits us. Science is giving us a clear message, telling us that we cannot continue living and consuming as we have done if we want a future.”
But there are politicians in Australia who would have watched this and won’t yet have come out from under their beds, though they can be expected to dust themselves down to appear in all the right camera angles at the Sydney and Melbourne footy finales soon enough…
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/olympics/rio-2016/first-green-now-gold-the-climate-changes-in-rio-20160806-gqmhy8.html
***it’s FernanDO Meirelles,not Fernanro, & what didn’t Fairfax/Baum or any MSM tells us about Meirelles? u can find tons on him at the World Bank’s Connect4Climate website if u do a search:
May 2015: Connect4Climate: Press Release: Film4Climate announces an agreement to green the film industry
Cannes, France (May 18-19, 2015) – The World Bank Group’s Connect4Climate program is announcing Film4Climate, a commitment by the global film industry to reduce the environmental impact of film production and an effort to tell stories about climate change through cinema at events during the Cannes Film Festival. Filmmakers Bernardo Berolucci, Wim Wenders, ***Fernando Meirelles, and Pablo Trapero have endorsed and lent their support to the initiative…
11 Dec 2015: Connect4Climate: Greening the Silver Screen
Connect4Climate joins with Sony Pictures Entertainment’s Sustainability Department and Fluminense Federal University for the Crackle Cinema Green Project to inspire young filmmakers…
A committee of Crackle’s programming team and professionals in the film industry, including filmmaker Fernando Meirelles, and actors Alessandra Negrini and Rodrigo Santoro, selected the scripts for the short films. According to Academy Award nominee Fernando Meirelles, “The Cinema Green Project is an exciting opportunity for young filmmakers to engage in environmental defense and help change the usual production practices of the film industry.”…
“In the words of our President (World Bank) Jim Yong Kim, ‘We will never end poverty if we don’t tackle climate change'” – says Lucia Grenna, Connect4Climate Program Manager…
20 Jun: World Bank: Film4Climate Global Video Competition Opens, In Search of Short Videos to Inspire the World
Winners to be honored at official awards ceremony at COP22 climate summit in Marrakech, Morocco in November 2016.
As the next five years will be critical to advancing and scaling up climate action around the world as part of the SDGs, the COP22 climate summit aims to encourage countries to implement ambitious climate actions, with youth playing a vital role in the agenda…
The competition is the outcome of a partnership between the World Bank Group’s Connect4Climate program, the United Nations, Vulcan Productions, and the Italian energy company ***Enel, which has endorsed the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and targeted carbon neutrality for its operations by 2050. Other presenting partners include the UNFCCC, UN Sustainable Development, UNEP, The Global Brain, and the Government of the Kingdom of Morocco. In addition, more than 50 collaborating partners are supporting the competition…
Bernardo Bertolucci (The Conformist, Last Tango in Paris) will serve as the jury president of the competition. Bertolucci is joined on the jury by Oscar-winning Directors and Producers as well as luminaries of cinema, communications and the environment, including Mohamed Nasheed, climate champion and former president of the Maldives, producer Lawrence Bender (***An Inconvenient Truth, Pulp Fiction)…director ***Fernando Meirelles…Sheila Redzepi, Vice President for External and Corporate Relations, World Bank Group… and Mark Lynas, author and environmentalist (The God Species, Six Degrees)…
About Connect4Climate
Connect4Climate, also known as the Communication for Climate Change Multi Donor Trust Fund (MDTF), is a global partnership program based at the World Bank Group, dedicated to climate change communication. It is supported by the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Bank Group, along with more than 400 partners including civil society, media networks, international organizations, academic institutions, youth groups and the private sector. Film4Climate is the official Connect4Climate initiative dedicated to greening the silver screen, with more than 160 partners from the global film industry…
About Enel
Enel is a multinational power company and a leading integrated player in the world’s power and gas markets. Enel Group operates in Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and Asia, producing energy through a net installed capacity of around 89 GW and distributes electricity and gas through a network of approximately 1.9 million kilometers. With over 61 million business and household customers worldwide, Enel has the largest customer base among European competitors. Enel is the largest integrated utility in Europe in terms of market capitalization and figures among Europe’s leading power companies in terms of installed capacity and reported EBITDA…
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2016/06/20/film4climate-global-video-competition-opens
seems the World Bank controlled the Olympics Opening Ceremony. how about that, Malcolm Roberts.
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Now they’re installing virtual power stations in SA.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/05/adelaide-charges-ahead-with-worlds-largest-virtual-power-plant?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=fb_a-environment_b-gdnenvironment#link_time=1470375903
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The homeowner is paying AU$700/kwh for enough power storage for 30 cups of tea What government/taxpayer is providine the other AU$1000/kwh for this boonedoggle? They claim payback in seven years for the homeowner. What are the odds of even one of those 100 battery packs lasting 7 years? Bend over and enjoy it!!
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WUWT: More Renewable Wriggling: Don’t say the ‘C’ word
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On the previous thread we discussed predictions for imminent global cooling.
Nicola Scafetta gets a lot of flack, but I’m confident he’s on the right track.
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/model-trend/scaffetta-fig-24.gif
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Had a very strange experience today, went to a BBQ in a public park with friends and their families to catch up and have a laugh.
Nothing unusual about it except for the approx 100 Vic police around us plus 6 horse mounted police nearby.
So what was happening? you ask, a violent protest, a raid of sorts, a drunken rampage, a terrorist threat?
None of those but apparently in our lucky country when law abiding Australians gather in friendship and fly our National flag they have to be protected (contained) in case someone is ‘triggered’
Poor fellow my country indeed. 🙁
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More fallout from the Leave vote in Britain.
As a result of Brexit, Rolf Harris can no longer be kept inside
the European Union Fashion Prison for the Criminally Insane and Totally Out There.
20
Before discussing the Bosnian Pyramids we should work out what they are saying.
http://temporarytemples.co.uk/crop-circles/2016-crop-circles-2
Some of you may think this has been done by Bill and Warwick with ropes and ladders, but methinks something a little more sophisticated.
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best to post this followup on Fernando Meirelles & the highly-politicised Olympics Opening Ceremony here:
6 Aug: National Review: The Cultural Marxism of Rio’s Opening Ceremonies
by Gabriel de Arruda Castro
(Gabriel de Arruda Castro is a Brazilian journalist &, from elsewhere, member of the Young Leaders Program at The Heritage Foundation)
This should come as no surprise. One of the masterminds behind the ceremony was Fernando Meirelles, the movie director responsible for the critically acclaimed 2002 film City of God, the jewel of the favela aesthetics…
Imagine if the Athens Olympics had highlighted contemporary Greece’s corruption instead of the country’s mythology, or if Beijing decided to showcase its air pollution instead of the grandeur of China…
Add in some climate-change preaching, and the night was complete…
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/438748/rio-opening-ceremonies-brazil-olympics-glamorize-poverty
5 Aug: LA Times: David Wharton: Rio Olympics open with a ceremony both joyous and serious, all with a samba beat
Meirelles — a director best known for the 2002 film “City of God,” a crime drama set in Rio’s slums — went a step further, taking jabs at right-wing Brazilian congressman Jair Bolsonaro and a noted U.S. politician…
“Bolsonaro will hate the ceremony,” Meirelles tweeted earlier in the day. ***“Trump also.”…
http://www.latimes.com/sports/olympics/la-sp-oly-opening-ceremony-20160805-snap-story.html
keep politics out of sport please.
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Many of the Australians who comment on this site support the Liberal party. Right now, most of the world is up in arms about the torture of children by the Liberal government’s minions, first in the Northern Territory, and now in Nauru. I don’t suggest that Joanne has any obligation to write about it, given that this has nothing to do with global warming. But if I were an Australian conservative, I’d be feeling a bit uncomfortable.
00
Pehr Björnbom says: August 13, 2016 at 9:43 AM
“On the other hand from spectroscopic data on the OLR from the planet it is possible to see how greenhouse gases decrease the OLR and to get an idea of how much the temperature of the planet would decrease if there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. I understand that this is what Dr. Roy Spencer was talking about in the video from a climate conference that I have linked to previously. Such spectroscopic data may look like this, although this is a calculated diagram:”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png
That graphic is a good example of calculation that ModTran and the HiTran database can provide in a direction of little or no opposing radiance (space) Integrate that over all wavelengths and again over all 2PI (external hemisphere) to get to the totals of exit flux per unit cross sectional area.
Lets look a bit closer. That big dip for CO2 between 600 and 680 wave-numbers indicates the temperature of the local tropopause. Drop that CO2 to 150ppmv and you will see almost no change in the decrease to 220 K but the wings will close slightly. However the tropopause cross sectional area radiates into almost twice the integrated solid angle as the surface can possibly do.
The broad 680 and 1220 wave-numbers is the so called 8-14 micron window in WV absorption, at the surface temperature of 288 K. The the dip at 1000-1020 is from tropospheric O3 exitance at whatever local temperature. The thing to remember here is that that WV window only exists for 30% of the Earth’s surface area, the rest 70% is covered with clouds at there own top of cloud temperature. I will leave it to you to decide if the chart ‘as presented’ is informative or deceiving.
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