JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Hazelwood power station to close: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hazelwood-shutdown-victorias-dirtiest-power-station-set-to-close-early-next-year-20160923-grn0ph.html.
The article says that Hazelwood provides 25% of Victoria’s power, but we have no worries as there is ample surplus power to go around.
I think it might be time to buy that diesel generator I’ve been pondering.
240
There is a difference between “Closing” a power station, “Shutting Down” a power station, “Decommissioning” a power station, “Mothballing” a power station, and “Removing” a power station.
Given that this item is in The Age, we can only guess which one might be closest to the truth.
Also the statement that, “the electricity market has more than enough capacity …”, may well be true. But my question is “where?” The distribution network would have been designed to have Hazelwood, which is not an insignificant power source, in the mix for the majority of the time. Removing it perminantly, will almost certainly impact the load balancing of the distribution network overall, and thus increase the possibility of further disruption.
Now, don’t get me wrong. The Engineers involved, know their stuff, I have no doubt. My complaint is about The Age simplifying everything, to the point where nobody gets any credit for anything that is even remotely difficult.
90
The AEMO is a government body and hence politically constrained in the statements it can make plus the “surplus” includes peaking plants which are not directly comparable to Hazelwood. Plus the “surplus” capacity is not guaranteed to be within the Victorian grid, making it all but irrelevant. The “analysts” that provide the conclusion about the overall market capacity being “more than enough” are probably academic “think tanks” like the Melbourne Energy Institute and the Institute for Sustainable Futures
60
That’s my concern. The government consults the same groups of people that recommended a desal plant, which hasn’t produced a drop of water since completion.
60
I meant to add, it’s the same thing when it comes to the East-West Link. A government saying it’s not needed and the contract can be annulled with no penalty. Over a $1 billion in penalties and growing, as the implications of the contract breach are still undecided. The homes that were bought out are now a squatters paradise and no one knows what to do with them.
If I may be so bold, Labor governments have no idea when it comes to spending other people’s money.
141
That is hardly a bold statement. The economic cycle is for
1. Labor to get voted in open promises against lack of Coalition spending,
2. Labor spending its way into deep state debt,
3. the Coalition to be voted in due to escalating “issues” (due to the debt),
4. the Coalition to pull the state out of debt with restricted spending,
repeat
But I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know 🙁
131
Analitik @ #1.1.1.1.1
ALP reckless spending is to deliberately destroy the capitalist system. It knows no upper limit.
30
Chesterton figured it out back in 1924.
“The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives.
The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes.
The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected.”
ILN, 4/19/24
10
Funny you should mentiuon that….there is a big yike in Canberra currently. The incumbent bike riding labor chief minister wants to have trams in canberra. Expected cost about 1 billion. Currently only about 5% of the canberra population will be able to use it. As such, the only way to fund it is to keep hiking peoples rates by about 100% over next 10 years.
As such, the labor state govt in canberra is happy to trash the whole states economic future for the sake of a few inner city trendies and the warm fuzzies of a “green” future powered by a decommissioned Hazelwood plant…oh hang on…..
Now where have we seen this before?
00
It’s the spending that counts – you’re not supposed to question on what it is spent.
20
— ‘The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money’–Margaret Thatcher
40
Yes, but probably bigger than you were contemplating
32
Nah, leave that to the CrowEaters
31
Gasp, and South Australia where I live want an interconnect or with the Eastern states to make SA power supplies more reliable. I’m going out now to buy my diesel gen set. Australia is stuffed!
10
Say, I know I’ve posted this link before, but it’s well worth reading again. now that Victoria is considering closing down Hazelwood, which generates around a quarter of Victoria’s power. Close it down and watch what happens to Victoria, and also then watch Tasmania (via Basslink) struggle, and also South Australia (via the Heywood Interconnector) struggle also.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some, umm, critical reason is not found to keep Hazelwood open.
The link below is to a currently operational Brown Coal Fired Plant in Germany, which has two units of HELE USC generators. It’s an 8 page pdf document, and it also has a really nice schematic of the plant.
Read it very carefully, and note where there were originally plans to work jointly with Hazelwood. That got canned sooner than you could say Phantastranic Transaxlabiofronic Multiplexification Unit.
Link to Neurath F and G
Tony.
221
Tony, I wrote a bit on Hazelwood in the last thread as one of the consequences of the non science around Michael Mann’s science fiction. Now we do not have Global Warming, we have Climate Change with drought the new norm? As the rain keeps falling and records are set, this also is rubbish.
So closing Hazelwood is close to insane. The hatred of Brown Coal is beyond reason as it only produces 6% more CO2/MJ than black coal, not double.
What I find unacceptable is that the Government takes advice from salaried activists like Environment Victoria, public servants with clearly no understanding of science and engineering or physical chemistry. They in turn pay for extraordinary Green papers from their friends in the Green industry. This is a cacophany of fools as a collective term for ignorant professional paid climate activists, who cannot even explain what the problem is.
As well as reduced CO2 emissions, the new units will also achieve low specific SO2, NOx and dust emission levels.
WTA technology is also proposed as part of a major retrofit planned for the Hazelwood power plant in Australia
This is what Environment Victoria should be concerned about. Real pollution like SO2, NO2, dust, not CO2 from which all the trees and plants and people and animals and insects are made. We are carbon life forms. We are internal combustion engines. We are not pollution.
221
Way back in 1960,I used to have a friend,whose parents had a farm,a few miles out of town(Jamieson,Victoria).The farm was too far away from the”Electricity”lines,so they relied on a single cylinder Lister deisel engine for their power.They also had”Windmills”to pump water from their dam to the milking shed,house and water the stock.
Quite often on week-ends when the wind wasn’t blowing,we would have to move the Lister diesel down to the dam to pump the water to the house and the stock.These wind mills weren’t fit for any-thing else because they were”Unreliable”then and nothing has changed since 1960.
And the”Greens”call these”Bird Chompers”Renewables?New Technology?
You have to be kidding.
30
“The hatred of Brown Coal is beyond reason…..”
Correct – its a death-loving cult.
Think about how many elderly will die when the gid fails due to chunks of it being shut down over some non existent issue?
I actually fear for the personal safety of the politicians who let this stuff happen. Modern society is civilised while its all working – once the grid wobbles and people start dying, logic says we would expect lynchings to start happening. Most australians arent used to unreliable power or facilities, unless they live way out in the bush. Out in the bush if the grid collapsed, they probably wouldnt even notice until the tv went off the air. It will be like a self-inflicted “Jericho” tv series all over again.
Australians are a fairly placid lot, however, once thier blood is up, I’d hate to be in the way…..
00
I had the opportunity to examine the Neurath power stations at Cologne in 2012 as part of an independent review of the deployment of various lignite qualities as mined.
Very impressive.
81
Ianl as a geologist you might have replied to TdeF that the Brown coal in Victoria (as with most Australian) coals) has a low sulphur content in comparison to coal in Europe and USA. The Neurath power station has flue gas desulphurisation which is not necessary in the Latrobe Valley. The Latrobe valley brown coal also has a low ash content which can readily (ie at low cost) be removed from the exhaust gases. A new modern coal fired power station of a unit size of 1200MW with automation (ie very low manning- say 50) at a mine site (in the Latrobe valley) where the coal is stripped with automated equipment would have one of the lowest electricity generation costs in the world. Large units are good for base load but consideration needs to be made how to supply peak and other load variations at low cost. I note that South Korea is working on small package Nuclear plants of 50-100MW which can have regulated output. I have read that their latest units are be operational in 24 months. (Please note that small units are not new eg Nuclear submarines and Russian icebreakers with two reactors)
20
I wrote an article on small nuclear reactors in the June 2016 issue of Silicon Chip magazine. Small nuclear reactors are classified as those that are under 300MW of electrical output. I think they are quite promising for civilian power production.
40
All I could think of was the “Mr Fusion” reactor on the Delorean time machine in the “Back to the Future” movie….
00
Ianl as a geologist you might have replied to TdeFIanl as a geologist you might have replied to TdeF …
Well, I might have … but:
You will note that my initial comment included: “part of an independent review of the deployment of various lignite qualities as mined”. That’s quite as far as I wished to go in this forum.
I’ve commented on coal qualities here a number of times, it just doesn’t resonate. There’s no point. But please don’t let that stop you.
The Neurath power stations are impressive in their design efficiency, especially for the raw fuel feed they are designed for. That the German lignite qualities differ from LaTrobe qualities doesn’t alter that, of course.
10
I brought this up in the David Evans cooling thread as an OT but I guess it was premature for any real discussion. Here I was tossing up whether to respond to this comment or #1 by bemused – coin toss made it #2.
If Engie goes ahead and decides that dealing with the overhead brought about by the greenwash is more trouble than it’s worth, let’s all hope the shut down takes place during a relatively calm period. We need a period where the “contribution” from wind farms is minimal, to give a realistic representation of what the reduction in synchronous generation would entail in terms of grid and even demand management.
I’ve stated before that the beauty of Hazelwood being nominated for closure is that being such an old plant, it has 8 smallish 200 MW boiler/turbine units rather one or 2 big ones. Given this, any reasonable shut down process will be staged so that the effect on the Victorian grid (and those interconnected) can be monitored as units are taken offline. Without significant wind to mask the effects, I would expect that serious issues would be apparent by the time half the units are taken offline.
If Hydro Tasmania takes a prudent approach this summer and uses BassLink only to arbitrage small amounts rather than selling off their winter rainfall, then they will be minimally affected. The ACT may experience some shortfalls but the NSW grid will probably buffer them from any major disturbances. It is South Australia who are most at risk as they will no longer be able to rely on the Heywood interconnector as the crutch to support their grid when demand refuses to correlate with the wind. If you look at the details of AEMO pricing events, it’s quite clear that the 650 MW capacity of the interconnector cannot be taken as a guarantee of supply even now – without Hazelwood’s output, there is no way that the support provided this winter (upgrade period aside) would be replicated so the 2.5% blackout risk in the February AEMO assessment will need to be revised sharply upwards.
Of course if a shut down began during a period of steady, sustained, strong wind, then the issues could be masked until the majority or even all the units had been shut down making recovery a longer, more drawn out process. You can bet that Victoria’s grid operators would stabilise our grid as priority #1 and if that meant cutting interconnector ties to SA and Tasmania, so be it. The interconnectors to NSW via the ACT would be used to import if need be.
Incidentally, I have been playing a game today with my reverse cycle airconditioners, trying to balance their consumption vs my PV output using my Efergy monitor. Bloody difficult when clouds intervene for random periods!!
91
Yes, but wanting a rolling disaster to teach the loonies a lesson is not good for anyone, even the loonies. Hazelwood should not be closed. It is not old and useless and could be updated. Hazelwood was only opened in 1971, which may be a million years ago for some but the Sydney Harbour Bridge was 1932, Snowy Mountain Scheme 1974 and even Melbourne’s absurd Westgate Bridge was 1978 (built to get over a river but you had to cross the river to get to it). It has a design lifetime of 40 years which seemed a lot at the time, but expired 2 years ago.
Lunacy is not its own reward. This is nonsense and if Hazelwood closes, as is likely, we should not reward the owners with more cash to do nothing. Hand the investment back to the people of Victoria for nothing, if it is useless. We keep the $3Bn. I will run it personally and keep the cash with no debts.
82
I’m not saying it’s good. I’m saying it’s necessary because the greenwash argument is so pervasive through the MSM support that a catastrophic failure is needed for the lies to be exposed.
I would agree about the state buying back the plant but Dan Andrews may have already (mis)spent the windfall from the Port of Melbourne lease by next April – it’s not beyond his “talent”.
The Worksafe requirements that are the reason behind Engie’s alleged discussions are probably quite reasonable but it’s all the other greenwash policies that have made the plant operation borderline in terms of profitability.
81
… if Hazelwood closes, as is likely, we should not reward the owners with more cash to do nothing
Dumb.
If Hazlewood is closed, it will be because ongoing Govt policy makes it unprofitable to run. That is, sovereign risk has deliberately made Engie’s investment worthless. So why is that Engie’s fault ?
If the Vic Govt causes Hazlewood to close and then offers compensation to avoid global censure, why is that Engie’s fault ?
00
According to the 2016 South Australian Energy Report
“…In 2015–16, total imports from Victoria represented approximately 17% of South Australian operational consumption […], while net imports (total imports less total exports) accounted for around 15%…”
Figures 18 and 19 (pages 42, 43) and associated text is also very telling.
From section 5.3 (supply adequacy assessment) on page 50:
“…Since the closure of Northern Power Station in May 2016, South Australia has become more reliant on interconnection with Victoria for energy supply. In the absence of new development, potential reductions in coal-powered generation capacity across the NEM would pose a risk to future supply reliability in South Australia…”
The report, and data files are available here:
http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/South-Australian-Advisory-Functions
50
What is very intriguing, is that the historic import/export data has changed from last year.
The 2015 report for Imports (latest 2 points for the sake of brevity, but all the figures in the data set file are different between years)
2013-2014: 2010 GWh
2014-2015: 2091 GWh
The 2016 report for imports:
2013-2014: 1925 GWh
2014-2015: 1904 GWh
(2015-2016: 2227 GWh)
I wonder why this is the case? I will be looking into this further…and asking AEMO to explain it.
40
It’s explained in a footnote below the Figure 18 Total interconnector imports and exports graph in the 2016 report. It reads
So the older figures were net for each interconnector (MurrayLink as well as Hwywood) rather than net for both.
40
well… don’t I feel silly now!! Thanks for pointing out where I went wrong though, I obviously did not read what I should have read.
51
Tony, You probably know that Hazelwood has 8 units of 200MW. You also probably know that turbine output determines steam demand which can be ramped in the range 30-110%. When Hazelwood was built 45-50 years ago there was some Hydro available but there were also smaller generators at Yallourn and Morwell that were the main load followers while Hazelwood supplied the base load. Some natural gas turbines have been installed to cater for peak power but Hazelwood would now be important for load control particularly on occasions when the wind does not blow and SA loses 30% of its potential power demand.
I would think that it is likely some guarantees will be given to keep Hazelwood open. Do not forget that all the the capital should have been paid off by now. If a guarantee is given expect that the French will put in some automation to reduce the manning. Operating costs could be reduced by around $36M be getting rid of 400 of the nominal 1000 employees. Some years ago I visited Loy Yang and as well as I remember they reduced the manning at the power station from around 800 to 260 when it was privatised.
50
Really????
30
Yes. Loy Yang also automated the actual mining process in the extent that huge-bladed dozers controlled by programmed GPS were cutting the coal with only a tiny skeleton staff.
As cementafriend and myself have been trying to point out, current mining is a high-tech, high-capital activity. Most people, especially city people, still regard it as just digging a hole in the ground, which any fool can do with a shovel. Certainly, that is the preferred MSM opinion.
Now you see the issue I’ve banged on about for a while. The MSM will NEVER supply the populace with accurate information and most people just don’t care about that in any case. So the result is that thugs like Andrews and the SA Govt can pretty well say what they like as they destroy infrastructure for ideology.
20
Rarely I see a news article that seems to have been designed specifically to enrage TonyFromOz. This is one of them. (Bolding not in the original.)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-25/sa's-power-price-spike-sounds-national-electricity-alarm/7875970
This report issues one of the most impressive feats of propaganda spin I’ve ever seen, impressive even when coming from experts in Green doublethink at the Grattan Institute. The ABC journo must have had a tough time conveying the loopy Grattan message without it obviously interfering with reality or the current ministerial outlook. In the same press release as predicting ominously that “household power bills will rise unnecessarily” if we don’t follow their recommendation, they admit that even if we follow their recommendation that “higher wholesale prices would be passed on to consumers” and that “all governments should confess that the transition to a low-emissions future would cost more.” Of course these three statements are not placed side-by-side in the article, perhaps in the hope people won’t notice the doublethink.
Their critical spin here is that renewables will (and must) raise household power bills, but the only portion of that Grattan thinks is “unnecessary” is because the price would rise by less if the levy on CO2 emission was spread more widely across economic activity rather than concentrated on wholesale electricity generation.
The more impressive aspect of the Grattan’s statements is that they start fighting with one arm behind their back by making the following admission:
They actually admit this, but they still don’t admit defeat! The fight goes on…
I reckon this is Uhlmann’s accidental admission that the Grattan Insititute began with their desired policy goal and worked backwards from there. The amount of deduction (rather than inference) going on in this train of thought indicates the Grattan Insititute is not interested in discovering anything.
Heheee! They “cover” 40% of the market. Are you getting hot under your collar yet, Tony?
Thank heavens Uhlmann doesn’t pass himself off as a business or finance reporter. The loan from the bank does not pay off the construction, only selling the produced power can do that, so paying off the cost of construction is a significant cost spread over the short life of wind and solar collectors. There is not even any mention of maintenance costs, as though the occasional death of maintenance workers atop wind turbines is to be dismissed as an insignificant “zero”, but every dead Chinese coal miner is to be forever paraded as a black mark against coal fired power stations 4000km away.
How’s your temperature, Tony? Do you dare to read more? 🙂
Maybe they keep operating because they can’t switch off the wind for the same reason they can’t switch on the wind when you need it!
You’ve got to be steaming up at this point.
There’s far more contentious statements in there to read, but I’ll just skip to a real zinger.
He’s just finished telling us that the RET distorts the electricity market, yet his recommendation is to impose a huge intervention and distortion in all markets, including electricity. A national uniform carbon price is also outside the electricity market because it is a tax that nobody wants to pay!
Blood boiling yet? 🙂
80
Yeah, the rest of us don’t give a rat’s ar$e
11
On the ABC news tonight they described that SA blackout a couple of months ago as a . . wait for it . . .
Now, I don’t know about you, but if I looked out the window of an Australian capital city to see nothing but darkness, that’d be pretty credible.
80
Hmmm…..a sensible plan Bemused.
I had a look at your blog yesterday; enjoyed reading several of your articles there.
20
Thanks Annie.
I could go on a lot more in my blog, but I try to constrain myself, so that I can keep reasonably on track with it’s main purpose. I also live in an area that has a lot of Greens, so I don’t wish to become a pariah by being too vocal. Forums like this let me vent my spleen. 🙂
I’m seriously pondering the generator and having it connected to our main power circuit. They are far less expensive than they were years back, but if Hazelwood goes, I reckon blackouts will become the norm, unless Victoria covets what’s left to themselves.
91
All you need is a quality power lead and board from a portable generator to household appliances for emergency use.
20
I have two small petrol generators (which are a backup when camping), but not really appropriate to power major appliances. If power blackouts become the norm a, directly wired-in, diesel generator would the most cost effective way to supply power for the whole house.
Mind you, as soon as the reality sets in with regard to what closing Hazelwood would entail, I suspect that the State government would be scrambling for an out. They can’t genuinely suggest that they can recover a 25% capacity loss with fairy dust.
Honestly, Hazelwood should demonstrate what it means to cut power generation by 25% and see how the electricity market copes. This could be a fully planned test to validate the views of the ‘analysts’.
60
John Setka will decide the future of the Hazelwoo power station.
No further correspondence will be entered into.
30
Only if there’s something to gain politically and with a Premier that’s basically a union lap dog, it’s a non-issue. This would only be an issue if a Liberal government was in power. Then there would be all hell breaking loose, street protests every month and the MSM creating some angle as to how the government is in the pocket of big business.
40
If this latest Victorian Marxist regime think they can inflict outright economic disaster on the people they pretend to serve then they’d better seriously reconsider this latest brain fart.
A public revolt will ensue before any turning off of anything occurs, I’ll guarantee this action personally as a Patriot and defender of constitutional liberties.
Straw, Camel, Back!
61
Notice that Adam Band(i)t has already expressed delight in the “opportunity” that an early closure of Hazelwood would present (hmm, try saying that aloud!).
I seriously wish there was a way to isolate the inner Melbourne grid so that it could be supplied (or not) 100% by renewables. Then those latte sipping, fixxy riding, concerned citizens (tovarisch) could see what they really have voted for.
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bemused September 25, 2016 at 2:52 pm
Figure 2 kW/person minimum plus whatever the air conditioning requires. Even a hair dryer takes 1.5kW. If buying new check propane prices. Running a generator on propane triples the life over gasoline/petrol. I would not consider any but dual fuel here in the US. The automatic switchover/starting can cost more than the generator. Perhaps purchasing a group of smaller appliances for use in blackouts would be more cost effective!
20
You live in a lovely area; one we seriously considered moving to. In the end we came back to our old place and replaced the old tatty house with a new one. This is a beautiful area also but usually a lot less lush than yours.
30
It is a fantastic area and nothing would influence me to move anywhere closer to Melbourne. When the world goes to hell, at least we’ll be more adept to living the cave dweller life than most in Melbourne. 🙂
50
I doubt you (nor I) will need to buy a home generator – it’s the South Australians that will need to invest in those + a decent diesel tank or a number of jerry cans.
South Australia will act as the canary in the coal mine for the reasons I’ve stated above, shocking the general poplace into accepting the reality of our energy requirements vs the fairytales being sold to them by the greenwash (blindly accepted by our Marxist state government). The upside is that it will also speed up the disenchantment with the watermelons that has already begun (as evidenced by the results for The Greens and One Nation in the Federal election)
50
One can only hope but, as with the likes of Obama in the US, an awful lot of damage can be inflicted that will require decades to correct. And all of these people will walk away and live with impunity for what they have done.
30
A catastrophe tends to clear heads – luckily, the South Australians are ahead of us in implementing Marxist stupidity so it will take place across our Western border. We will have a clear view of the cause and consequences – I just hope enough locals are prepared.
BTW we used to own a small holiday farm just outside Fish Creek (decades ago). I remember it being a nice area but it has been years since I’ve visited that region
50
Fish Creek is still a very nice place and gets a lot of tourist trade on the way to Wilson’s Promontory. We visited the Fish Creek Hotel in Life Behind Bars – Part 6.
20
Is it true that the SA Government is planning to pay subsidies to power stations for the owners to keep then on stand by in case they are needed?
30
Just one source
“It is suggested that Engie were just “happy to help out” despite what Engie has described as the poor economic in the current market. It was suggested there was no link to the low carbon energy tender.
In a statement, energy minister Tom Koutsantonis, admitted the government’s intervention in the market was an “extraordinary step”, but was unavoidable due to the planned outage of the Heywood Interconnector to Victoria, coupled with higher than expected gas prices, as well as severe weather conditions.
This had contributed to large-scale price volatility in the energy spot market in recent days, and Engie had agreed to provide 239MW of additional supply to help system security, and calm the market.”
Now if you believe a commercial enterprise (who also own Hazelwood) would turn on a mothballed uneconomic gas generator on a whim and to ‘help out’, you should not go near politics.
50
“Koutsantonis says the events are yet another example of the failure of the “so called” national energy market.
“A confluence of remarkable events has led to incredible volatility in the spot market over recent days which has resulted in higher electricity prices and put pressure on South Australian businesses, some of whom have raised their concerns with me,” he said in a statement.
The South Australia government been lobbying for another link to the main grid on the eastern states, and recently put aside $500,000 to help fund a feasibility study.”
SA is not in serious trouble is it !!!
81
Great. A Socialist approach to electricity supply and the minister criticizes private suppliers for making a killing on public waste and Green nonsense? Where is their sense of public duty? If a government makes a massive mistake, it is up to private investors to pay the cost? No.
61
Yep, they want to dump their problems on to other states to
http://www.premier.sa.gov.au/index.php/jay-weatherill-news-releases/697-state-budget-2016-17-study-into-new-interconnector
And then there’s the SA Environment Minister, Ian Hunter who says
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/south-australia-says-national-grid-holding-back-renewables-74315
Tom, Jay, Ian – the rest of Australia doesn’t want to be “endowed” your “incredibly cheap” (worthless) power when you can’t find a use for it and don’t want to have to provide for your baseload nor transition through the difficulty and pain. To all other South Australians, sorry but you keep voting those knobs back in.
80
Labour get less than 50% of the vote (47% last election) but still gets back in.
00
In the UK, they are called “Capacity Payments” – yet another cost of renewables that they hide behind
60
Regional cooling has begun, BoM experiences massive brain fade.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=4704
We have them on the run, take no prisoners.
51
The cold seems to have started in South West Australia at the beginning of the year and is spreading. compare this
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=history%2Fnat%2F2016020120160731&step=2&map=maxdecile&period=6month&area=nat
to this.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=history%2Fnat%2F2016050120160731&step=0&map=maxdecile&period=3month&area=nat
20
All the hallmarks of continental cooling and BoM has been caught short yet again.
Over the next few years we can expect their seasonal forecasting to become even more bizarre than usual, they don’t know how to account for the fact that a weak sun means more low cloud and cooler diurnal temperatures.
40
QBO misbehaving.
‘Prof Adam Scaife, Head of Long-range Forecasting at the Met Office and Honorary Visiting Professor at the University of Exeter, said: “This unexpected disruption to the climate system switches the cycling of the quasi-biennial oscillation forever. And this is important as it is one of the factors that will influence the coming winter.”
UK Met
10
Its obviously just a coincidence that stratosphere winds are predictable over a 60 year period and then it suddenly switches. This is no random walk and the Klimatariat is totally mystified, nevertheless they are burning the midnight oil to prove its been caused by CO2.
70
… to prove its been caused by CO2
C’mon, you’re experienced enough to know that you have to prove it’s NOT CO2. The null hypothesis has long been reversed now.
Oh, and the phrase “quasi-biennial oscillation” is just wunderbar … these people are astonishing at verbal masturb@t1on.
50
We have to have a clue of what is coming, otherwise mass delusion will continue into the never never. The QBO switch is totally unexpected and they don’t know what to think, they blamed El Nino.
‘Although the basic physics of the QBO is well known, the quantitative details and balances of the different processes are still rather unclear. Worse, many of the models used for numerical weather prediction (NWP) or climate modelling are unable to produce a QBO, or they produce a QBO which looks very different from observations. For example, only 4 of more than 30 models used for the last IPCC report have any sort of QBO.’
ECMWF
30
el gordo September 25, 2016 at 3:38 pm
“We have to have a clue of what is coming, otherwise mass delusion will continue into the never never. The QBO switch is totally unexpected and they don’t know what to think, they blamed El Nino.”
The meteorologists/climatologists have only the disgraced models to resell, again and again! These folk have never been able to think as evidenced by the disgraced models. It is the acceptors of this asswipe that are the problem! Those others only wish to remain at the trough! Who can blame them!
41
The models held prophetic value, but finally its all coming undone. Still, the vacuum must be filled and its really important for us to explain in simple language how our star is the main driver and not CO2.
To this tune the oscillations do a merry dance, cycles within cycles are clearly perceived.
40
Academia’s most important product is polysyllabic obfuscatory verbosity. Don, a geology major, was completing his PhD field walk with his advisor. At one point, the professor said, “We are nearing a bifurcation in the surface drainage.”
Don was dumbstruck, but unfortunately not enough to prevent him from replying, “Hey, not only that, we’re coming to a fork in the crick.”
There followed a profound silence from the older man that lasted the rest of the trek.
70
jorgekafkazar
Yes indeed…
Without academia’s prototypical acroamatic multiloquent characterized by consummate interfusion of circumlocution or a periphrasis of inscrutability, and other familiar manifestations of abstruse expatiation commonly utilized for promulgations implementing procrustean determinations by obdurate quasi-political civil-apparatchik bodies, or other academic propagators of pusillanimity, then the current sphinictorial paralysis in percipience of the concomitant intelligentsia would be universally deprecated!
90
Quite so!
70
Is your other name Sir Humphrey Appleby?
30
Bernard: But surely the citizens of a democracy have a right to know.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: No. They have a right to be ignorant. Knowledge only means complicity in guilt; ignorance has a certain dignity.
20
Annie,
I must admit that within this forum’s endearing propinquity I can derive some evident pleasure in employing an expansive onomasticon within which however, it contains not any nom de plume you have referenced.
10
Annie,
I enjoy sesquipedalianism…
20
Just finished reading this and now my head hurts. Makes Kevni’s “programmatic specificity” look like a model of brevity.
🙂
40
Apparent sphincteral paralysis is likely a concomitant effect of epidemic chronic proctocraniosis.
30
Beats the crap out of me if I know what you mean!
20
Bill Illis provided this graph of the QBO, regular as heartbeat until now.
http://s22.postimg.org/6u9ytg4td/QBO_Jul16.png
The balloons only began collecting data in the 1950s, but I’m prepared to say a wayward QBO is a global cooling signal.
30
Tony. Always like your back of an envelope calculations on energy matters. I have a question you may be able to answer. How many $m dollars a year does Hazelwood have to spend on buying bits of RET paper, both from wind and small scale solar industries to fit in with our renewable targets etc. just wondering,
40
Sorry, not Tony but anyway, Hazelwood and the other generators don’t buy the RECs. The retailers are forced to buy them for compliance with the RETs
https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/renewable-energy-target-scheme
Hazelwood would be front and center for being slugged under the cap and trade scheme if the current threshold were to be lowered, however.
https://theconversation.com/australias-new-cap-on-emissions-is-a-trading-scheme-in-all-but-name-47035
50
We have fallen into the hands of The Wreckers.
40
there was this followup re Hazelwood:
24 Sept: ABC: Hazelwood power plant: French owner ENGIE has made ‘no decision’ on station closure, Victorian Government says
The owner of the Hazelwood power station has no immediate plans to close the plant despite reports it could be shut down in the first half of next year, Victoria’s Energy Minister has said…
Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said she contacted French company ENGIE, which runs the plant, on Friday following reports the plant could be shut down in the first half of next year.
Ms D’Ambrosio said the company said nothing was definite.
“The short answer is no,” she said.
“I heard about the speculation last night. I contacted the senior management of the company late yesterday and their information was that they’d made no decision.”
ENGIE has not responded to the ABC’s request for comment…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-24/hazelwood-owner-engie-has-made-no-decision-victoria-government/7874022
following the first Fairfax piece which stated it would shut down, i read a comment somewhere that Fairfax would have got the story from the CFMEU. quite possible, given this excerpt from the piece bemused has posted above:
– CFMEU Victorian mining and energy president Trevor Williams said the union was expecting an announcement about Hazelwood next month, but was uncertain whether it would be an outright or gradual closure. –
40
& now this…
25 Sept: Age: Farrah Tomazin: Government scrambles to allay Hazelwood shutdown fears
The Age reported a meeting of the station’s French owner, energy giant Engie, to be held next month would almost certainly decide to close the nation’s dirtiest coal-fired power station. Subsequently Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio called the owner for reassurance and was sent to the valley on Saturday to talk with nervous locals.
As the government scrambles to put together a transition plan to offer hope to the struggling community, Ms D’Ambrosio drove to Morwell on Saturday morning to speak to locals about new job opportunities.
***The minister called Engie’s senior management on Friday night seeking more information, but told a press conference the French company gave her no indication that closure was imminent. Nor did they give her a timeline for the possible shutdown, she said.
“Let me be very clear – the response from senior management was that no decision has been made,” Ms D’Ambrosio said…
The government remains tight-lipped about what kind of plan could be put in place, other than to say it will continue to talk to the community about how best to diversity the economy if Hazelwood closes its doors…
But Morwell MP Russell Northe said the Andrews government must “come clean now on what they know of this closure and what their plan is to keep jobs in the Latrobe community”…
Engie is holding a board meeting in October to finalise a decision to close the brown coal-fired plant, which could happen as early as April.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/government-scrambles-to-allay-hazelwood-shutdown-fears-20160924-grnpmg.html
this is a disgrace if Fairfax have simply gone with this story based on NOTHING.
40
looking more & more like a CFMEU beat-up…complete with faux concern from Fairfax!
24 Sept: Age: Chloe Booker: Fears Latrobe Valley will turn into a ghost town as news of Hazelwood power station’s closure spreads
They knew it was coming. Yet another big employer was soon to close in the already disadvantaged Latrobe Valley.
But it was a blow for valley residents to wake up to news on Saturday morning that the Hazelwood power station would almost certainly close in April…
Ms Schoer (Hazelwood North resident Elisse Schoer) is part of a group of about 80 walkers who are heading to Morwell, one of the towns closest to the power station, from Melbourne.
Wearing orange T-shirts emblazoned with the words “WALK WITH THE VALLEY”, they are campaigning for a “just transition” for workers into alternative employment…
Former CFMEU Victorian mining and energy president Luke van der Meulen was among the group as they stopped in Trafalgar on Saturday…
Mr van der Meulen, who lives in Moe, said he had been aware it the closure was imminent and had been pushing for Engie to provide certainty to workers…
Mr Gunn estimated the 19.7 per cent unemployment rate in the town would rise by a further 5 per cent.
“It’s going to be bad for the town,” he said. “There’s going to be a lot of people out of jobs.”…
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fears-latrobe-valley-will-turn-into-a-ghost-town-as-news-of-hazelwood-power-stations-closure-spreads-20160924-grnnij.html
20
The Fairfax source is the CFMEU – the union has had reliable placement of their stories in Fairfax outlets from mining operations for many years. I’ve seen it many times; I was coincidentally present in a mine operation communal shower room when the local union chapter held an impromptu meeting to decide what story to tell the Fairfax journo.
It’s not yet possible to know if the CFMEU has a substantive point or is making a pre-emptive strike – possibly an assymetrical mix of both.
But, note well: the CFMEU does not give a tinkers cuss for the power supply and grid reliability. Its’ prime concern is potential job losses. When the SA grid collapsed earlier this year through lack of wind, the SA Govt spin was that this was a national problem, ie. other people in other States have to supply SA when its’ windmills stop. The CFMEU only complained about the job losses in closing the coal-fired station in Port Augusta.
40
FFS, pat!!!!! String your comments together in a reply chain when they’re related like this.
It’s bad enough with your normal random new postings but there’s no excuse with this lot. Especially when there already 3 comment chains on the subject at the very start of this thread.
12
I don’t find it problematical, reading when I have time and not when I don’t.
00
‘Australia’s education department paid Bjørn Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus Centre $640,000 to help produce a report that claimed limiting world temperature increases to 2C was a “poor” use of money.’
Paul Karp/ Guardian
50
Oh! The dreaded water waste in fracking quantified for US
http://www.redpowermagazine.com/forums/topic/103673-where-the-water-goes-its-not-fracking-by-a-large-margin/
User pays would certainly produce some squeals
10
Hey, GOLF is a religion over here, or so most golfers I know tell me…
00
Attempt to post at Jonova’s wonderful weekend-unthreaded site! But what to post?
Consider the Oliver K. Manuel incessant ‘something is wrong’!
The Climate Clown ‘we all gonna die unless you do what I say’
The Witch, do as I say! The Donald, do as I say!
The increase in police brutality! Comply or die!
The increase in violence against any non-believer!
The sacking of any that do not conform!
Now go back in history a bit. Prior to 1900 all Physics was physical! With struggle to express such to any other!
1900 Symbolic algebra, a precise compact way of expression of concept, to others who understand the limitations of the physical.
1905 Einstein’s expression of theoretical relativity, (weird), hard, hard to understand even with symbolic algebra!
1921 the Emmy Noether abstract algebra, specifically designed to separate anything physical from conceptual mathematics. Conservation of energy disappears from all physics. But not from engineering that just love ‘entropy’ as a way to explain ‘why’ that did not work as expected!
1941 All academics use ‘abstract symbolic algebra’ as the replacement for anything physical. No longer any need for measuring anything physical! The numerical solution of the ‘abstract symbolic algebra’ becomes the replacement for physical Conceptual nonsense like photons, quantums, neutrinos, flourish!
1946 Oliver K. Manuel discovers ‘something is wrong’!
Now what?
33
I was going to post something on the Greenhouse theory, but other more important events have intervened.
By the way:
I have read this by Oliver K. Manuel, and I even read the whole of Dr Kuroda’s memoir. I am try to figure out what exactly is wrong! I think he says it is Neutron repulsion and the packing fraction.
I am not sure why neutrons repel since they are neutral. And I do not know what the packing fraction is since Dr Kuroda did not explain that in his memoir.
10
1947 my father returns from occupied Japan. His destiny and fate having been much improved because of a couple of rather special bombs. Those two bombs also having had a very positive effect on troop morale aboard his transport ship to the Philippine Islands in 1945.
1950 my father and mother meet at college thus beginning their 66 years of life together.
My personal cell start to divide about a decade later.
2016 I can’t stomach the Witch and will vote Donald as many times as I’m permitted.
30
Every time I see, or hear, anything about the current US Presidential Election, the last four lines of a song run through my head:
Send in the clowns,
There ought to be clowns,
Where are the clowns?
Don’t bother, they’re here.
50
You only need one reason to vote for Trump and that’s Hillary.
Trump-Pence for commonsense
Hillary-Kaine for the criminally insane.
21
Commonsense? Does that even exist in the political arena?
Both sides say:
1. Vote for me because the other side is so bad.
2. Vote for me because I can solve all your problems.
3. Vote for me so I can increase government power so that the government can help you all the more.
Both sides blank out that the fact that government action can only make things worse. Hence, the thing that we need government for is to make things worse for those who would violate our individual rights, attack us, try to kill us, and take our stuff. Anything else that government does violates our individual rights by sacrificing some for the benefit of others.
Does it make commonsense to enlist the vary thing that is the problem to solve our problems? Then expect it to make things better for us? Isn’t that rather like inviting a rattle snake to bite you to prevent being bitten by a rattle snake?
Sadly, as a US citizen I am left with three options:
1. Vote for Hillary and make things worse very fast.
2. Vote for Johnson to vote for Hillary without having to vote for Hillary.
3. Vote for Trump because he isn’t Hillary and makes both the establishment left and establishment right go absolutely bonkers.
50
… makes both the establishment left and establishment right go absolutely bonkers
As Cassandra suggests that things will only get worse (what black swan will appear to improve them ?), the quote above supplies much amusement 🙂 🙂
20
My third option does have significant entertainment value. Watching the establishment left and right squirm is worth at least three large bags of popcorn.
The only black swan I see is the likelihood that the establishment left and right will cooperate and make it impossible for Trump to do anything. This is the best outcome I can foresee.
Other than that, it is up to us to make a difference. It’s going to take a good part of the century to undo the works of the so called progressives of the past 150 years.
20
I wonder if clowns ever take their job seriously?
30
Clowns are show business people, so yes, they take it seriously, but possibly not as seriously as brain surgeons.
10
Knowledge apparently rises while understanding relentlessly declines.
10
I’m sure I read somewhere that Engie have poo pooed the claim of the closure but if it does go ahead and we have a hot summer , the blackouts will be devastating .
40
and totally irresponsible.
20
Not slated until April and the South Australians will cop it worse than Victorians
They’ll be 15,208 overjoyed if it is shut down.
http://www.replacehazelwood.com.au/
And about 5,950,00 Victorians angry and complaining (and quite possibly 1,712,00 South Australians angry and trying to complain except the internet, phones and cells will be out so they can’t)
30
I suppose that’s one way to commit economic suicide. I’ve got a better way. How about the state introduce an income tax of 90%?
31
sigh … you need to know that the brother of the CFMEU President is in the Victorian Cabinet. The CFMEU is the source of the Fairfax story – where did the union get its’ information from ?
I know this next comment is sharp, but it is the naivety in your comment that is destroying us, by clinging to forlorn hope. Just one example, of course …
11
Well, you have to appreciate the subtlety of the approach. It is positively Machiavellian.
60
Hypocrisy rules supreme these days on many fronts. As far as I’m concerned if any state decides to push for a much greater reliance on so called clean energy, they must “put one’s money where one’s mouth is” and place a corresponding cap on their purchase of electricity from the national grid given the majority of it is generated using coal. Of course if they did that they would suffer blackouts almost on a daily basis. Then let’s see how the public will respond to such financially and economically suicidal initiatives.
50
… a corresponding cap on their purchase of electricity from the national grid given the majority of it is generated using coal
… not a hope.
10
A quick recovery for the Arctic sees day 268, 2016 higher than 2012, 2007,2008,2011,2015 and 2010.
21
Now that Jeremy Corbyn’s been elected (again!) as the leader of the UK’s Labour Party, I wonder what his views on the supposed dangerous man-made global warming due to CO2 will be?
His brother Piers has a website called Weather Action (http://www.weatheraction.com/)- he’s a non-believer up to the hilt, but it’s a pity that his website is incredibly cluttered. That said, it’s a fun place to visit!
20
Do you believe it?
JOE KELLY
New polling shows growing support for climate science and greater action to tackle the effects of climate change.
The Australian newspaper
26 September 2016
20
As below. Unsubstantiated nonsense from a near anonymous group of activists with no idea of Climate and an ‘online’ survey with the strangest ideas. The question is why this is front page news? There is real news in the world but it must be a very slow Monday at the Australian.
51
The Australian is today carrying faux survey results from “The Climate Institute” and claim Turnbull should be worried. Who is the Climate Institute? A lawyer, some PR people, financial, administrators and a photographer. According to the self promoting group of non scientists, only 3% of surveyed people think coal is the preferred power source. Our parents were obviously mad when they paid for cheap reliable power from brown coal. The next generation knows windmills are far better? It has been a long time since maintenance workers shut down our power in the Latrobe valley so a Labor government will do what workers no longer do, shut it all off.
This is utter madness in a country like Germany or Australia blessed with so much wonderful brown coal. Other countries have nothing, but we are the ones building windmills and turning off power generation which cost billions to build.
It is pretty damning when the owner of Hazelwood says wholesale electricity prices are so low, they would be better off not running their multi billion dollar power plant? The x5 markup between the power generator and the end user is a serious problem, like farmers who are paid less than the cost of producing milk. At the same time truck loads of taxes subsidise more expensive and utterly unreliable wind power, perversely in the name of sustainability?
If you owned Hazelwood, the smart thing would be to turn it off, wait for the screams and charge the government a premium to turn it on again. Energy extortion subsidized happily by the taxpayer, especially in South Australia and soon coming to the other states. Like our desalination plants, massive public investment run privately and paid to not operate or paid even more to turn on.
It would be wonderful to hear from the 2,000 people allegedly surveyed ‘online’ by the Climate Institute exactly what which Australian Climate had changed? Hobart, Melbourne, Darwin, Brisbane, Ayers Rock? Where is this terrible life threatening Climate Change which requires masses of public money and urgent closure of coal power generators? Where have the oceans risen? Where is the drought? Why are we building windmills?
81
“Australians, in record numbers, accept climate change is happening …” said The Climate Institute CEO, John Connor.’
Its a bogus poll, although I hasten to add that the coral bleaching event captivated the minds of the thoughtless mass.
40
The Australian editors should be carpeted for allowing that rubbish to be printed.
10
as with several other pieces, every other line is CONTRADICTORY:
26 Sept: AFR: Mark Ludlow: State renewable schemes distorting the NEM, says Josh Frydenberg
Federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg says state renewable schemes are distorting the market, leading to decisions such as the closure of the Hazelwood power station in Victoria.
French energy giant Engie and the Victorian government have played down media reports the 1600 megawatt power station is to close down as early as April next year, but the closure has put the spotlight on the fast-changing dynamics of the market as fossil fuel is replaced by renewable energy.
A final decision on Hazelwood may be made as soon as next month.
The potential closure of the Hazelwood “dirty” brown coal power station will have major ramifications, including pushing up power prices as high as 25 per cent, according to energy experts…
“Having different state and federal-based renewable energy targets is a barrier to optimal outcomes because it skews investment in an inefficient way,” he said…
Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, who will travel to Latrobe Valley again on Monday to talk to community leaders, said the government had been advised by the operator of Hazelwood that no final decision had been made on its future.
The Victorian government has committed to an assistance package to help with the potential loss of 1000 jobs from the Hazelwood closure…
Australian National University Associate Professor Frank Jotzo – who last year recommended a scheme whereby other power generators paid for the removal of dirtier, older plants – said the likely closure of Hazelwood was a long time coming.
“Hazelwood closing is unavoidable,” Professor Jotzo said…
Professor Jotzo said retail power price rises from the closure of Hazelwood would be less than 2 per cent.
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/state-renewable-schemes-distorting-the-nem-says-josh-frydenberg-20160925-grnw07
21
Why is another academic economist advising on Climate? “Older, dirtier plants”. In what way dirtier? When did CO2 become dirty? Clean, odorless, invisible, harmless and the only building block of life the extra people in China in the last fifty years breathe out more CO2 than the whole of Australia, but no one is suggesting that they are dirty pollution and have to be phased out?
61
Perhaps the person who gave TdeF the thumb down (post 22.1) might like to come out from under their cloak of anonymity and tell us all why they’ve done so? Figures, arguments, maybe?
Not likely to happen, I’d say.
00
ABC will believe anything…that goes along with THEIR narrative:
AUDIO: 26 Sept: ABC AM: Support for action on climate change continues to climb
Australians’ support for action on climate change and renewables is the strongest it’s been in nearly a decade…
The report has found only 19 per cent of people rated the government’s performance on the issue as fairly good to excellent…
Featured:
John Connor, CEO of the Climate Institute
Tony Wood, Grattan Institute’s Energy Program Director
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4545351.htm
Woood, who was director of the Clinton Foundation Clean Energy programme from 2009 to 2014 (ABC, why not include that in your description?) says we need more climate change policies if we are to avoid blackouts in places like SA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Wood_(businessman)
51
As above, not a scientist among them. Connor is a lawyer, concerned about Climate Change. This is comedy, not science.
31
So “we need more climate change policies if we are to avoid blackouts in places like SA?
That’s all we need, more policies, more legislation, more departments and closing more things. Why should Australians set an example? Of what? Massive self harm? Manufacturing gone, farmers to the wall, miners showing record losses while our farms, mines, ports and businesses are going overseas while a Liberal government makes a grab for our retirement savings? You can sense a huge backlash coming, if only we could get our real leader back, not ultra rich Green Malcolm Turnbull who inherited millions in 1982, something missing from his Wikipedia entry.
51
You may be underestimating the enormous release of energy from reshuffling the paperwork by irritated fat-asses!
10
by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, William M. Briggs, David R. Legates, Anthony Lupo, Istvan Marko, Dennis Mitchell, & Willie Soon
Political Science: A Reply to the 375 Concerned Members of the National Academy of Sciences
10
The big one Monckton et al leave out is that you can prove there is almost no fossil fuel CO2 in the air! That should be the end.
Simply mankind cannot significantly change CO2 levels and they fall back quickly with a half life of 14 years. As CO2 is increasing steadily and temperature is not, this is long busted.
The increase in CO2 must be due to ocean warming which fits Henry’s Law. It cannot be due to fossil fuels or C14 levels would be affected. The real Suess effect (not the Wikipedia altered effect) is that man made CO2 measures at 2%, not 50% as the alarmists require for their story. There is no part of the alarmists science which is true, including tipping points, extreme events and all the other fantastic stories unsupported even by their own discredited models. Plus bushfires.
30
New Poll
People have more faith in scientists.
http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/media-releases/support-for-action-on-climate-change-and-renewables-strongest-since-2008.html?platform=hootsuite
00
26 Sept: TimesOfIndia: Indrani Bagchi: Ratifying Paris deal will give us role in shaping climate rule
NEW DELHI: India’s decision to ratify+ the Paris climate change agreement on October 2 will give New Delhi a role in shaping global rules of the emerging climate order. It’s a statement that India is no longer a compulsive contrarian, but wants to be in on the creation of new global movements…
Climate change is the new global movement, which will set rules and benchmarks for everything from energy to technology to trade…
The climate change deal is a big part of Barack Obama’s legacy. By ratifying, Modi has indicated India would play a role in it, even though government recently denied a US statement on imminent ratification by India…
Its an important indicator to how India wants to present itself as a responsible global power, a contention which has greater relevance this week when India is widely believed to be launching military attacks on Pakistan and has announced it will review the Indus Waters Treaty…
More important, India has set up parallel movements like the International Solar Alliance where India’s leadership would be questionable if it did not ratify in time.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/What-does-ratifying-Paris-climate-deal-mean-for-India/articleshow/54511938.cms
it’s difficult reconciling the war talk & threat to turn off the tap to Pakistan with the Gandhi reference below:
26 Sept: NDTV: PTI: US Welcomes India’s Move To Sign Paris Climate Agreement
“We welcome the news India will join the #ParisAgreement October 2,” US Ambassador to India Richard Verma said. “Congrats Prime Minister @narendramodi for your leadership to #ActOnClimate,” Mr Verma tweeted…
Earlier, in a surprise move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India will ratify the Paris Climate Change agreement on October 2, the birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi…
PM Modi said he had chosen the date, which is next Sunday, as Mahatma Gandhi’s life was an example of minimum carbon footprint…
Climate change is a vital aspect and one of the centerpieces of Obama’s legacy…
He (Obama) has often said Climate change is the greatest long-term threat facing the world, manifesting itself as droughts, storms and flooding.
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/us-welcomes-indias-move-to-sign-paris-climate-agreement-1466365
10
And Obama is a lawyer and lawyers and politicians can see the massive opportunities presented by the failed Global Warming, now the nebulous Climate Change. Who cares if it is not true?
40
India is announcing a signature as it needs US aid in beating down Pakistan. The price for “supporting” their war is ratification.
I am getting too old and cynical.
10
26 Sept: BusinessStandardIndia: Nitin Sethi: India flips: Will ratify Paris Agreement on October 2
Modi’s gambit to hinge ratification of climate change pact to NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) membership fails
The ratification requires a simple cabinet approval at a time of the Prime Minister’s choosing and not a Parliamentary approval.
The announcement comes after the government’s attempt to link country’s ratification of Paris Agreement with the US putting its weight behind India’s bid to win a NSG membership came to naught. A successful linkage was hinged on two factors. One, that the outgoing US president Barack Obama is keen to have Paris Agreement come in to force before his term gets over as his legacy and two that India’s ratification would be essential for it…
EU remained the only key developed country group yet to join, but it too on Friday announced that it would collectively ratify the global climate compact before November. This promised to leave India isolated and embarrassed about the brinkmanship around climate talks as US President Obama looked on track to get the legacy gift without India’s help…
http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-flips-will-ratify-paris-agreement-on-october-2-116092500561_1.html
16 Sept: Reuters: Tom Miles: India loses WTO appeal in U.S. solar dispute
India lost its appeal at the World Trade Organization in a dispute over solar power on Friday, failing to overturn a U.S. complaint that New Delhi had discriminated against importers in the Indian solar power sector.
The WTO’s appeals judges upheld an earlier ruling that found India had broken WTO rules by requiring solar power developers to use Indian-made cells and modules. The appeal ruling is final and India will be expected to bring its laws into compliance with the WTO rules.
“This report is a clear victory for American solar manufacturers and workers, and another step forward in the fight against climate change,” U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said in a statement…
U.S. solar exports to India have fallen by more than 90 percent since India brought in the rules, the statement said…
The appeal ruling came just days after India launched a WTO complaint against subsidies for the solar industry in eight U.S. states…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-usa-solar-idUSKCN11M1MQ
00
This is not a comment. It is a test for my computer, because some of my comments to other websites do not seem to be getting through.
Don’t bother reading it.
And if you have done already, you have wasted your time.
My fault. Sorry.
10
Reading you 5’s RoHa, int zbz?
10
Nothing is showing up RoHa. !
I’m not sure your post got through.
20
Thanks, Tom and Andy.
10
We will have no industry left with ever increasing electricity costs.
00
How do I change my email address without being blocked?
[you may change your e-mail at any time. Your first post after the change will be caught by the moderation filter as is any first time poster. You won’t be “blocked”.] ED
00
Wivenhoe deja vu:
original headline:
Forbes floods: Why wasn’t dam emptied?
dailytelegraph.com.au – 1 hour ago
changed to the innocuous:
VIDEO/PICS: 26 Sept: Daily Telegraph: NSW floods: Forbes on alert as Lachlan River threatens to rise
EXCLUSIVE by Jack Houghton in Forbes and Neil Keene
HYDROLOGISTS will be deployed to investigate whether the biggest flood in Forbes’ history could have been avoided.
The Daily Telegraph can reveal Wyangala Dam operators did not start releasing water until it reached 90 per cent capacity in August.
The same dam is still sending 35,000 mega liters of water into Forbes as it sits on 102 per cent capacity.Another 44mm of rain is expected to hit the catchment tonight…
The dam was only at 38 per cent capacity in June but one of the wettest two months on record dumped 618,000 mega litres of water into the catchment.
However, dam operators ignored the rising levels and did not start releasing water until August 2…
More than 1000 people have been forced out of their homes and dozens of farmers now face bankruptcy with the insurance bill estimated to run into the tens of millions of dollars.
The Daily Telegraph understands the dam operators were hesitant to drain the dam and risk having no water for the start of the irrigation season in October…
“(water releases) may only be conducted where catchment conditions and weather forecasts provide a high degree of certainly that the storage will be at full supply level for the beginning of the irrigation season on 1 October,” an official guidline for the dam reads…READ ALL
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/nsw-floods-country-towns-on-brink-as-once-in-generation-flooding-hits/news-story/0de197195f22ff0907dbb196019ae546
if only bureaucrats would stop listening to Flim Flam.
00
big new meaningless scare?
22 Sept: LiveScience: Earth’s Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Continue Long Slide
By Charles Q. Choi
Atmospheric oxygen levels have declined over the past 1 million years, although not nearly enough to trigger any major problems for life on Earth, a new study finds…
However, models of past atmospheric oxygen levels often markedly disagree, differing by as much as about 20 percent of Earth’s atmosphere, which is oxygen’s present-day concentration, the researchers said. It is not even known if atmospheric oxygen levels varied or remained steady over the past 1 million years.
“There was no consensus on whether the oxygen cycle before humankind began burning fossil fuels was in or out of balance and, if so, whether it was increasing or decreasing,” said study lead author Daniel Stolper, a geochemistat Princeton University in New Jersey.
In the new study, researchers calculated past atmospheric oxygen levels by looking at air trapped inside ancient polar ice samples. Specifically, they looked at samples from Greenland and Antarctica…
The scientists detailed their findings online today (Sept. 22) in the journal Science.
http://www.livescience.com/56219-earth-atmospheric-oxygen-levels-declining.html
23 Sept: Gizmodo: Maddie Stone: Our Atmosphere Is Leaking Oxygen and Scientists Don’t Know Why
It’s nothing to lose sleep over—really, I promise—but Earth’s atmosphere is leaking oxygen…
Long-term climate change could also be responsible. Recent human-induced warming aside, our planet’s average temperature had been declining a bit over the past few million years.
“As you cool the oceans, the solubility of oxygen goes up,” Stolper explained. “That means you oxidize more organic carbon [in the ocean] and you have less to put back in the atmosphere.”
Stolper added that there could be other explanations, too, and figuring out which is correct could prove quite challenging…
Stolper’s analysis excluded one very unusual part of the record: the last 200 years of industrial human society.
***“We are consuming O2 at a rate a factor of a thousand times faster than before,” Stolper said. “Humankind has completely short-circuited the cycle by burning tons of carbon.”
While Stolper reassured Gizmodo that we’re still not going to run out of breathable air anytime soon, “it’s yet another indication of our collective ability to do what happens [naturally] on the Earth, yet so much faster.”
http://gizmodo.com/our-atmosphere-is-leaking-oxygen-and-scientists-dont-kn-1786948116
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“While Stolper reassured Gizmodo that we’re still not going to run out of breathable air anytime soon” -Big of him, since a quick calculation says that 100 years at the current rate would consume a bit less than 0.0003% of the oxygen is the atmosphere, so he is right.
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Hillary Clinton is truly getting desperate – she’s now openly endorsing nuclear power as one of “the tools available in this fight” against climate change and will “increase investment in the research, development and deployment of advanced nuclear power.”
For those who read through the 2016 Democratic Platform and have followed her policy statements, this is a BIG DEAL.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/440274/hillary-clinton-says-she-supports-nuclear-energy?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=57e3eb9d04d30155fd497904&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
She’s still not a palatable option for US Presidency but this is yet another indicator that the stupidity with renewables is being recognised by the general public and coming through in the party polling.
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It’s not going to please the Bernie Block that is supposed to support her – and won’t attract the Donald Block, either. Perhaps she is after the “swing” voters? Most of whom are, I suspect, closet Trump supporters. They don’t want to be seen as racist bullies, misogynist creeps, or any of the other things Trump’s supporters have been called, so I believe they will remain “undecided” until the moment the vote is made.
The “public” doesn’t care about renewables one way or the other, mostly – a few loud and furiously agitated groups with hangers-on don’t constitute the “public” or represent it. What the “public” wants is what it always wants – to stay in its comfort zone, maybe get a bit more comfy. Anything that seriously threatens this will be met with a resounding NO. For all the lip service Joe Citizen (and Jill) makes to saving the planet through combating Climate Change, if it means too large a drop in comfort level it won’t get through. And if it costs too much, very few will buy it.
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New paper (or CO2mageddon ‘science’ explained):
The Natural Selection of Bad Science
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1605.09511v1.pdf
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Looks like the newest prince can smell a BSer!!
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Lowering the Bar has commentary on this years Ig Nobel Winners.
I’ll link to Lowering the Bar as he links directly to two studies that are of interest to us. I’ll let the surprise speak for itself.
http://loweringthebar.net/2016/09/2016-ig-nobel-prizes-awarded.html
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/simple-time-dependent-model-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect/#comment-226109
Gee,
Comments now more than 1400. Where O where is any consensus?…In an attempt to get any to agree, grumble, grumble, with others; perhaps just a preferred concept of Earth’s geometry within space and this Solar system can be agreed to. Not an absolute ‘is’ just some ‘reference’ conceptual geometry that all others can deviate from. We seem to have a spinning, orbiting, tilted Earth, difficult to comprehend…WHAT would a comprehensive geometry be? Not is, but only as an agreeable conceptual starting point? I have my firm concepts, I promise to bend my firm into all ugly else to reach agreement! What say you? Must this mess go on to WAR?
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/simple-time-dependent-model-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect/#comment-226183
Joel Shore says: September 12, 2016 at 7:49 PM
Will,
“I don’t see anything in Maxwell’s Equations that specifically supports your bizarre ideas.”
It is obvious that you do not see! You likely Have not even studied the subset that creates the EM field. especially a thermally (noise) supported EM field.
“Nor are Maxwell’s Equations alone sufficient to describe thermal radiation…You would have to know the motion of the charge in order to describe the generation of EM waves and you need something to tell you about the thermal motion of the charge that is producing the electromagnetic radiation.”
This is necessary ‘only’ for EM coherence evaluation. Directional flux evaluation only requires vector summation of all incoherent broadband Poynting vectors into one incoherent broadband Poynting flux, or the generalized hemispherical Lambertian flux as carefully described by Dr. Boltzmann in the equation named after he and his mentor.
“I know many physicist colleagues who understand Maxwell’s Equations and EM radiation better than you do (I leave it as an open question whether or not I would count myself as one of them) and not one of them comes up with your bizarre conclusions.”
Can you name even one that has done, can do, or has written the software to do a simple 100 x 100 focal plane array phase solution for EM beam forming? Has that individual solved the trade off for longer range radar detection from that vector, and the ability to query a different direction, or how to interleave the two? After many years of that. Please ask what they have if thermal noise is the only phase determinant for each of the 10,000 elements? Can you transmit and receive at the same instant ever? What is flux?
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Will, I’m always much more impressed with the experience provided via comments made by people that actually made things work.
I’ve been looking at the links you’ve provided to Roy Spencer and damn, you have provided conclusive evidence of just how poor the “consensus” science is.
Please continue to keep them (and us) humble!
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Thank you Mark.
Please understand I have nothing to sell! er ‘cep many many fine honed pitchforks! For you my special friend, an excellent price, on large lots!! 🙂
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Me, I keep an unknown number of keenly honed machetties, forks and some lead. If you have large lots of lead, sulfur and certain salts of nitrate, good for you. Keep them dry please.
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I wondered into low mountains in central US Arkansas 15 years ago as a retired white engineer. What an education!! Folk here know who to care for, and who to shoot! Rejected early, then not so bad, then perhaps useful, now ‘One of us’! 🙂
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BTW
I have stock in Alliant Techsystems soon to be gone and young offsprout Vista Outdoor Get all you can of their still punchable salts of nitrate! Soon to be worth much more than GOLD! Those Honeywell bombs and bullets guys are GOOD. However, still not suggested to get that very wet either.
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punchablepurchasable 🙁10
Will, I had no idea how many of my favorite brands Vista Outdoors was behind.
I was through your State some years back for a funeral (near Fayetteville). Had a chance to meet the local folk. Good people. No doubt most have been taught early how to aim. Smart that you kicked out the Clintons too.
I have a brother that found Alabama to have quite a few fine people too. Me, I’m straight north of you (stop before Canada) in the land of 10,000 lakes and even more taxes.
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“land of 10,000 lakes and even more taxes.”
Wisconsin or above! I remember Manitowoc! Parking USS Henley (DD-762) for a bit and meeting many fine folk! Further north you have more Scandahovians, “ja shur you betcha” Folk you can trust, but never try to futz with!
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Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says:
September 30, 2016 at 9:35 AM
“Abject stupidity”? Congratulations, Will, you have just joined the small but elite class of banned commenters here. -Roy
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/09/errors-in-estimating-earths-no-atmosphere-average-temperature/#comment-226472
“Abject stupidity”? Congratulations, Will, you have just joined the small but elite class of banned commenters here. -Roy
Are I good or not? WoW!!! 🙂
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Dr. Roy,
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/09/errors-in-estimating-earths-no-atmosphere-average-temperature/#comment-226188
This is your claim:
NOTE: Most of the comments on this post will likely be off-topic, centering around the extreme minority view of a few people that there is no atmospheric “greenhouse effect” involving the atmosphere emitting infrared radiation toward the surface.
You insist on some spontaneous thermal EM power flux (W/m²) in the direction of the higher temperature Earth surface from the lower temperature mass of Earth’s atmosphere. Have you any possible evidence of such physical thermal EM power flux?
All of the skilled engineering community agree that ‘exists’, an atmospheric thermal lapse rate involving higher Earth surface temperature than would be obtained by some childlike application of the established S-B equation. Many, many, alternate solutions involving atmospheric pressure, density, and radiative temperature effects, completely and scientifically explain such observation.
The only claim that is non scientific is yours of spontaneous ‘atmosphere emitting infrared radiation toward the surface’.
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/09/errors-in-estimating-earths-no-atmosphere-average-temperature/#comment-226190
Roy Spencer says: September 27, 2016 at 5:25 PM
“I will repeat the simple example I provided above to answer your question:”
Thank you!
“Imagine solar illumination of an object that flickered between 0 and 1000 watts per square meter very rapidlyyou could get the resulting temperature off the SB curve at 500 watts per square meter to high accuracy.”
This is exactly the amplitude modulation that is attenuated by the thermal mass of Earth’s atmosphere as measured by physical in situ verification of physical thermal modulated EM flux at every frequency.
“Then imagine the solar illumination is 1000 watts for a hundred days, then 0 watts for a hundred days. Take those 2 points off the SB curve and average them together. The temperature difference for those different cases is huge. All that has changed is the length of the diurnal cycle!”
Indeed! The high frequency ‘modulation’ would have transferred attenuated sideband power into increased accumulated atmospheric sensible ‘heat’, especially evident in increase in mid tropical atmospheric temperature. Such did not happen!
This exemplifies the huge difference between the conceptual pseudo-scientific philosophical (‘is’) and this physical Earth! Which one do you wish to consider? The peons consider this earth’s physical. The Scienterrific else gets herded into the Volcano! Such must happen sooner or later! We have many hungry Volcanoes! Spontaneous EMR to space dispatches excess entropy! Volcanoes dispatch excess stupidity!
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Here’s something that David Evans might be interested in. Links in the original text eliminated. The video is quite disturbing to watch. (hint; it’s just a cloud, but disturbing none the less.)
http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap111108.html
Explanation: What’s happening above those clouds? In the past few years, videos have appeared on the web detailing an unusual but little known phenomenon: rapid light changes over clouds. Upon inspection and contemplation, a leading hypothesis for its cause has now emerged. In sum, this hypothesis holds that a lightning discharge in a thundercloud can temporarily change the electric field above the cloud where charged ice crystals were reflecting sunlight. The new electric field quickly re-orients the geometric crystals to a new orientation that reflects sunlight differently. In other words, a lightning discharge can cause a sundog to jump. Soon, the old electric field may be restored, causing the ice crystals to return to their original orientation. To help this curious phenomenon become better studied, sky enthusiasts with similar jumping or dancing sundog videos are encouraged to share them.
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/09/errors-in-estimating-earths-no-atmosphere-average-temperature/#comment-226401
Christopher Game says: September 29, 2016 at 6:34 AM
In all that, I forgot to deliver the punch line.
“Downwelling radiation from the atmosphere absorbed by the ground is about 320 W m^-2.”
“Downwelling radiation”, is but a conceptual Climate Clown political SCAM, with no science at all! Never ever any physical science meaning offered. Just accept cause mommy said so! And shut up and eat your peas! This amounts to all of C. Game science.
An instrument with upward field of regard measures upward thermal EM radiant exitance in W/m² of its thermophile in the 3-9 micron band. This exitance to space is nowhere near the 340 W/m² exitance to space as claimed by C. Game As “upwelling radiation” from the surface!. Even on a cold clear night that measured upward exitance is no more than 3 W/m² or 1% of such dastardly claim.
Even this wee amount is strictly limited by any local atmospheric water, in any phase, creating its opposing field strength (‘radiance’) in that 3-9 micron band, that C. Game calls ‘downwelling radiation’, shut up and eat your peas, no backtalk, or else! C. Game has never bothered to learn or use any proper radiometric terms of science.
YOU HAVE BEEN GAMED! As in, Gaming the system (also referred to as gaming the rules, bending the rules, abusing the system, cheating the system, milking the system, playing the system, or working the system) Do you feel better now?
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Will Janoschka
Well you did not help write the link I posted.
References
D. A. Skoog, F. J. Holler, S. R. Crouch. Principles of Instrumental Analysis, 6th ed. Belmont, CA. Thomson Higher Education. 2007
G. D. Christain. Analytical Chemistry, 5th ed. New York. John Wiley & Sons, INC. 1994
R. S. Drago. Physical Methods, 2nd ed. Mexico.Saunders College Publishing.1992
S.M. Blinder. Introduction to Quantum Mechanics. Academic Press. 2004
D. C. Harris, M. D. Bertolucci. Symmetry and Spectroscopy: An Introduction to Vibrational and Electronic Spectroscopy. New York. Dover Publications, INC
Contributors
Richard Osibanjo, Rachael Curtis, Zijuan Lai
I do not see any Will Janoschka listed anywhere in the references or the contributors.
Those fools do not know I exist! Lets keep it that way.
Did you at least read through the material?
Indeed! All refers to absorption emission spectra within a laboratory setting of constant pressure or constant volume. Absolutely none refers to the hows and whys of spontaneous thermal EM flux generation transmission, or absorption into entropy! Nothing of how this atmosphere never has constant pressure, or gas density!
All is intentional BS!
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