In the last 120 years in Perth there has never been a September as cold as this one. We know that thanks to Chris Gillham, who has been tracking Western Australian weather in detail for years at WAClimate.net.
The headline in The West Australian today was Perth shivers through it’s coldest ever September. For some reason (I can’t think why) the extreme weather journalists did not mention climate change (has that ever happened on a hottest ever record story?). It’s so unusually cold here that wheat farmers, only weeks away from harvest*, are struggling with frost damage on crops. They are making snowmen from the frosts. It is supposed to be rapidly heating up but it is three degrees below normal.
Given the freak weather, Will Steffen immediately announced that “This is a prelude to a disturbing future. And it’s only going to get worse if we don’t address climate change.” No. Wait. Scratch that. That was South Australia, where one bad storm was caused by coal fired electrons. A record cold month is just weather.
Curiously, The Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) announced it was the coldest ever September for Perth since 1994 when records started at Mt Lawley, and the coldest at Perth Airport since records started there in 1944. But it took an unpaid data-aficionado to discover that it was actually the coldest since 1897 at the Perth Regional Office (see the “grains of salt” about this at the end of the post). And that applies to the super-spiffy-adjusted ACORN dataset which goes back to 1910. A coldest “ever” record.
A million square kilometers of cooler ocean
Chris Gillham points out there’s a big cold blob in the ocean around South and West Australia that just might have something to do with the cold weather. (See the sea-surface temperature maps below).
The Great Southern Cold blob may also have something to do with those South Australian storms.
Phill (also of the unauthorized BOM audit group) sends in with a graph of the SST anomalies for today from earth.nullschool.net “You can see that it is hot (over 2.5C in places) along the North West and North Coast and Cold along the South and South West Coasts (over 2C below average in places). All that extra heat across the North has been sending NW cloud bands across the continent and periodically interacting with the cold southern air which wedges underneath and causes nasty weather.”
Hmm.
What do records really mean? (Not much)
Gillham has gone through the full history of the site moves of the Perth Regional Office which started in 1897. He goes into glorious detail as it shifts from Kings Park, to the city then to Mt Lawley (away from the river). These are quite different locations. Bear in mind with all these “records” that there are no perfect datasets and not a lot of meaning a tenth of a degree recorded in two different places 120 years apart. Though, the BOM spent so much effort on the world class ACORN hyper-adjusted series, which is supposed to overcome all the site moves by homogenizing places hundreds of kilometers away, and yet they somehow didn’t notice the long cold record that was the coldest since ACORN records started in 1910…
Tagged: Satire and Parody.
Chris Gillham supplies both the excel file (1.4Mb) and tables.
|
Mean
Coldest September mean Perth Metro and RO raw since 1897
2016 13.02C
1906 13.03C
1919 13.30C
1923 13.55C
1915 13.65C
1903 13.80C
1917 13.85C
1964 13.85C
1968 13.85C
etc |
Coldest September mean ACORN Perth 9021 adjusted since 1910
2016 12.62C
1919 13.1C
1923 13.4C
1968 13.4C
1966 13.5C
1979 13.6C
1992 13.6C
1915 13.7C
1911 13.8C
|
|
|
Min
Coldest September min Perth Metro and RO raw since 1897
2016 7.6C
2004 8.0C
2010 8.2C
1998 8.6C
1919 8.7C
1952 8.7C
1906 8.9C
1999 8.9C
2005 8.9C
etc
|
Coldest September min ACORN Perth 9021 adjusted since 1910
2016 6.8C
1969 6.8C
1919 7.3C
2004 7.4C
1929 7.6C
1952 7.6C
1979 7.7C
1968 7.9C
1978 8.0C
etc
|
|
| Max:This month was the 18th Coldest September max Perth Metro and RO raw since 1897 |
Well, at least we can say for sure that your September weather changed. About the climate though, nothing they could say about Perth’s coldest September could convince me that the climate has changed. Give me dozens or hundreds of colder than usual Septembers in a row and then I can begin to believe the climate is changing.
It does add to the suspicion that the climate is actually cooling rather than warming. But again, nothing is proven or even close to proven.
If it was our September here that was the coldest in 120 years I’d say, “Thankfully it was a cool September instead of the usual hot weather.”
233
Will Steffen needs to take a step back from the frontline of climate panic and reassess what he thinks.
323
Also, I’m sorry to hear that frost damage is happening. That’s not a good thing for the farmers and I hope it turns out to be minimal.
222
Since frost is caused by direct surface radiation (IR) to space one would think that CO2 increases would inhibit frost by “Back Radiation” – but no such luck apparently…
172
I’m not the expert but I read what others say and that back radiation thing seems to be questionable. I don’t know if there’s a definitive answer about it or not.
I do know that we get overnight frost only if there’s no overcast. An overcast will always keep things warm enough to avoid it. And of course, no frost in summer, only late fall, winter and early spring. We may have none at all if it’s a wet rainy year or we may have a lot of it.
My wife doesn’t like what the frost does to some of the shrubs in the back yard and we have lost every fuschia we ever planted because of the frost, no matter in how protected a place we put it. And the weather continues to thumb its nose at us.
About par for the course.
23
Interested in what you say. My thoughts are that when the sun goes down the air temp drops. The cold night air then conducts heat away from the land. So that even when air temp is say 5 degC overnight, air movement will take away the heat and cause local frost. Would appreciate any comments.
GeoffW
32
Geoff,
Keep in mind that the only meteorology I know is what’s taught to pilots and my last need to use that knowledge was some time ago.
I think air temperature is probably a big part of it. What air movement has to do with it is pretty well known — if it isn’t already freezing and you have even a few knots wind then there won’t be any frost even if other conditions look like you should freeze. But even on the rare night when we have a very cold air mass on top of us if there’s cloud cover we don’t have any frost. So radiative loss to space is the other half of the equation. The mechanism in play with wind stopping the freezing is probably simple friction.
Wind is so effective that citrus growers use large wind machines (just an engine and a big fan on a short pole to get them above the foliage) placed throughout their groves and run them at night and stay complete protected even if it freezes all around their protected space and that works even if the temperature gets way below freezing, down into the 20s F (-4 °C + or -).
11
Thanks Roy I appreciate your response.
I will give the subject more thought.
GeoffW
01
Geoff,
Our weather forecasters are always careful to make the distinction between ground frost and air frost. Ground frost occurs first. Look at your car at the end of a clear winter night, you will often find that a deposit of dew has frozen on the both the glass windscreen and the metal shell of the car, but the air temperature is still above 0C. This freezing happens because solid surfaces are better emitters of heat radiation than the fluid air is. Under clear skies the ground cools to a lower temperature more quickly. The air in contact with the colder ground chills and deposits its moisture as dew, which then freezes on the even colder solid surface of the car.
Notice too that with a ground frost the dew on the grass will freeze before the frost gets into the soil. The larger mass of the solid ground has a greater heat capacity than the thin grass leaf does and therefore cools more slowly. This is why the thin metal and glass shell of your car can sometimes have a frost, but the solid ground around the car does not.
The Australian Antarctic Division used to display graphs of the vertical air temperature profile at Dome Argus in Antarctica. I have temperature graphs from 10th May 2008 which show that on a clear windless all dark day in deep winter, while the air at 4m elevation is -60C, the air below at 2m is at -65C and at 1m elevation the air is -70C. This is a classic temperature inversion, the air closer to the ground is colder than that above. The solid ice surface at Dome Argus is emitting heat to space and cooling the air from below.
By noon on the 13th May 2008 at Dome A the temperature has dropped to (1m) -74C / (2m) -70C / (4m) -66C. Then suddenly everything changes, a gale starts, the air mixes and the three air sensors all start recording the same temperature of the gale of -70C. The mixing caused by the gale warms the air at the 1m level but cools the air at the 4m level. Over the next 24 hours the gale continues and the mixed air temperature slowly rises to peak of -66C before all three sensors suddenly plunge back to -74C on the 16th May as the coldest part of the storm passes by.
Cold air is more dense than warmer air is. This cold heavy air from a chilled upland ground surface flows off the hills and moves down slope, just like water does. The cold air then collects in hollows to create pockets of air frost. The warmer air above the air frost can be artificially mixed down into the frost layer and by this means the air temperature near the ground surface can be raised above freezing. So just like the gale naturally mixes and warms the terrifyingly cold surface air in my Dome A example, artificial mixing can bring down the warmer air from above and help to protect the crops from freezing.
01
Geoffrey Williams October 2, 2016 at 12:54 pm · –
“Interested in what you say. My thoughts are that when the sun goes down the air temp drops. The cold night air then conducts heat away from the land. So that even when air temp is say 5 degC overnight, air movement will take away the heat and cause local frost. Would appreciate any comments.”
Geoff,
Many things going on, never explained for anyone’s understanding. 1) As PM says below, For WV to condense/solidify from the atmosphere such is much enhanced by having something to condense upon, leaves are good, glass and other polished surfaces are better, airborne dust will do in a pinch. (look up supercooled humid air). 2) Clouds are the visible partial condensate of WV into airborne water condensate, one of the very best condensation nucleus surface in (1). Below and at elevated temperature from the base of the cloud is atmosphere far from saturated or ‘dew point’. (drops or frost). 3) Any heat (power) elevated above the higher temperature surface or lower atmosphere by conduction, convection, or radiative means cannot and does not spontaneously return to the higher temperatures by any means!! This in spite of the profound claims of Climate Clowns, with all the college texts and 97% clowns insisting on “back radiation”! It is easy to demonstrate both theoretically and physically that such thermal EM flux in a direction of higher ‘radiance’ is not manifest, only fantasy!
Thermally powered electromagnetic flux from/to any mass surface area with finite temperature is not determined by the temperature^4 of that mass, but is always more properly constrained or reversed by some function of temperature of its surround, in each direction This is easily falsifiable! I defy any to do such falsification!
All the best! -will-
‘
01
That “back radiation” thing has me mildly confused. I mean, sure, clouds act as a blanket – some gases might too – but my experience with blankets (at least the non-electric unheated ones) is that they hold in the warmth that is there to varying degrees, not create more. Sure, I can put a quilt on a dead guy, but it isn’t going to make him any warmer.
I like the way my neighbor’s grandson put it “Stuff in the air lets us breathe, lets the rain fall, keeps all the hot from getting out and making us icicles with feets.” He seems to have the science down pat, now to work on his plurals.
00
The hottest temp since mankind walked on the Earth and many people are freezing, LOL
173
It will be interesting to see which shade of red NOAA has Perth when the September temperature chart comes out.
422
Irony oxide, for the rusted on alarmists…….
453
Well done Yoni. And another one I wish I had said. 🙂
Have a green one on me.
64
Mix the iron(y) oxide with ground up Alu, drop a match on it…. and you can slice them off….
72
That one is so good it’s now catching Flys [sic]. 😉
Do you have an hourly rate. We’re frequently in need of Fly catchers.
11
Which chart?
The current one, or one of the progressively warmer ones we can confidently expect over the next few years?
NOAA taught the BOM well on everything to do with data manipulation to meet a political agenda – or was it the other way round?
183
The CSIRO started it in December 1986, when the Hawke government appointed a partisan board of management.
I didn’t notice when the BOM and NOAA started it.
BTW. September wasn’t unusually cold here, but it was very, very wet. 16 days, 197mm which with rain on the first and the last day could probably be adjusted to 200 mm. Average 56.6 mm on 7.4 days. I badly need to get my sheep across the creek, but it keeps raining. More forecast. I shouldn’t have looked.
93
January 17, 2004:
This is the worst-case scenario for global warming, as forecast by the CSIRO and the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Recent weather has been ominously supportive of it.
The IPCC (and CSIRO) relied heavily on the Mann paper in coming to their global warming conclusions.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/01/16/1073878029212.html
12
Ted
How is the blowfly situation?
32
So they’re not woolly jumpers? 😉
Hope there’s a real break of clear weather soon. But that cold mass of water off the SW corner seems to be hanging around.
61
Don’t let on that it is a creek. Tell the sheep that it is a turbo-powered sheep dip.
82
Good luck with those sheep.
GeoffW
12
Don’t let the BOM fleece you….:o)
11
turnedoutnice October 2, 2016 at 7:51 pm ·
“Don’t let the BOM fleece you….:o)”
I would appreciate your comment on my
Will Janoschka October 3, 2016 at 11:32 pm ·
I may be (full of sh*t) as has happened before!
Thank you!
01
We gots ruby lasers! Notton more ‘red’ den dat!
01
At Perth’s latitude on the north side of the Equator you would encounter San Diego, CA or Tel Aviv.
However, because I live inland at 47° N, 683 m. elevation — and the Sun is shining nicely, and apples, wine grapes, and hops are all providing excellent harvest to regional growers . . .
Never mind!
132
That’s further away than Tasmania. Which I must visit soon.
32
At Perth’s latitude on the north side of the Equator you would encounter San Diego, CA or Tel Aviv.
For the geographical challenged other-siders here, Perth is on the same latitude as Taree on the east coast, and it’s antipodes is Florida USA.
22
As we all recognise, the adjustment bureau have no where to inhabit but a frigid intellectual wasteland as it becomes cooler and more importantly, as people recognise it.
They have nailed their kollectiv petards to the Ministry of Truth. The hoisting is underway.
233
People have noticed and are becoming cynical, here in Ballarat our September mean temperature was 5.7°C lowest, 13.2°C highest, total rainfall 178mm or 6mm per day (1/4″ for USA) with more of the same next week, people here are now saying it’s been an extension of Winter forget Spring wait for Summer to see some Sun.
262
And the rains still keep filling the dams.
243
With many catchments releasing water as the heavy inflows will overcome the discharge capacity of the spillways.
103
The Chief Climate Worrier ( Flannel ears ) must be beside himself….
103
It wasn’t Flannery who made that prediction about the dams never being full again. It was another fella with the same name.
83
Tom Foolery.
102
Wow! Who knew that strange effect of climate change? It has caused a shortage of names in Australia, and you are now having to share names!
You could always choose one that no-one else will want to share… how about “Julia Gillard”?
11
Any thoughts on how to prevent evaporation losses from dams?
A clever idea might be worth $millions!
GeoffW
02
My own thoughts would be to cover and seal the dam with some form of inexpensive roof, cost money but you only have to do it once . .
GeoffW
02
Trouble is, you also have to allow for aeration, otherwise you can get nasty anaerobic stuff growing.
11
4 oz/ acre of cheap motor oil, floats, stops evaporation. Cows standing in, pissing in, drinking in, claiming tastes just like Ralph, stops all anaerobic, What now?
01
Use the industrial form of ping-pong balls – established technology. However, it’s hell for ducks trying to land…..
11
The reason is the high pressure of the polar circle.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_sh/500gz_anomalies_sh.gif
Low is cut off in southern of Australia.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_JAS_SH_2016.png
The reason is jumping the solar wind.
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/pm_2week.imagemap?207,117
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_JAS_SH_2016.png
32
Similarly, high pressure in the north.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/500gz_anomalies_nh.gif
42
Its been wet because the Subtropical Ridge has collapsed.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/images/a021/rainfall_deciles_May-Aug_2016_sep-all.png
22
The weather is now rapidly turning cool-Autumnal in central England. I am looking forward to reading more tales of antipodean warmth on Jo’s blog to sustain me through the darkness.
123
Australia – Unusual frost affecting harvests in Wheatbelt, South West and Great Southern regions
‘Worst season for frost in 20 years’
“We are now growing much higher yields than we have ever done before, but I think there are other factors in that, we just seem to be getting later frosts and frosts of more intensity than we ever used to before.”
agroinsurance(dot)com/en/australia-unusual-frost-affecting-harvests-in-wheatbelt-south-west-and-great-southern-regions/
62
Zero forecast for worst frost in 20 years. Just continued warming.
State of the Climate 2010.gov.au(pdf)
Rain?
“Evidence of human in uence has been detected in ocean warming, sea-level rise, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.
CSIRO research has shown that higher greenhouse gas levels are likely to have caused about half of the winter rainfall reduction in south-west Western Australia.”
. . .
Now the carbon (sic) global warming is causing the floods.
153
Oops. Better link: CSIRO, 1999-
“The trend to warmer temperatures appears to have already reduced frost frequency and duration (Stone et al. 1996) thus increasing Australian wheat yields (Nicholls 1997)”
http://www.cse.csiro.au/publications/1999/globalchange-99-01.pdf
52
Is that low causing the ice “infestation” in N Zed?
http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/5/264706
I didn’t know ice could be an infestation. Mice, grasshoppers, unemployed professional CAGW protesters, but not ice.
00
The wettest September on record here in Ballarat. Beat the last record, back in 1916!
52
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
Forecast…
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on day one (30 Sep) and high to very high levels on days two
and three (01-02 Oct), due to effects associated with the CH HSS. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels all three days.
This might have had an influence as well ?
32
So, now the polar vortex strengthened. Wind speed up in the stratosphere. The effects of the sun appears in the troposphere with a certain delay.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_JAS_SH_2016.png
52
A good indicator is the size of the ozone hole. As the solar wind accelerated ozone hole will increase. In 2015 magnetic activity of the sun was high.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/gif_files/ozone_hole_plot.png
42
“A good indicator is the size of the ozone hole.”
Wait. What?
USSoS, John Kerry reckons he “repaired” the ozone hole:
September 2016, Kerry: One of Most Successful Environmental Agreements in History’ is Actually Driving [Global Warming]
“Speaking at the Palace Hotel in New York City Thursday, Kerry praised the 1987 Montreal Protocol agreement, which he said he personally helped steer through the Senate.
As a result, the hole in the ozone layer is shrinking and on its way to full repair.”
. . .
Egad. The person is delusional.
143
Kerry doesn’t use his head for much of anything. I have often thought it would make a good doorstop. But that’s probably too severe. It does hold up his hair so it has a good use. But you gotta love these people who go around getting nearly everything wrong and still aren’t ashamed to show their faces in public.
93
Does tend to explain why some uncharitable people call him “Lurch”; doesn’t it?
33
Just on the ozone hole, does anyone know if it really hasn’t reverted to previous extents since the bans on cfcs, or do we just accept that humans caused it in the first place, then we fixed it?
32
Ren,
So are you saying we actually know what causes that ozone hole? I wonder. I once asked if the length of time it’s been around would make any difference in what we think it means and what causes it. No one gave me an answer. It could have just occurred for the first time in 1965 just before it was discovered (the first time) or it could have been around for hundreds or even thousands of years. I don’t know about anyone else but to me that’s an important question about something that may well be a natural phenomenon. And I don’t believe we can answer it.
83
In the years when solar activity was high polar vortex was strong and large ozone hole. Probably caused a fallout of electrons. When solar activity is low to ozone operates galactic radiation. I suppose that in this case a greater role does the Earth’s magnetic field.
02
I don’t know about anyone else but to me that’s an important question about something that may well be a natural phenomenon. And I don’t believe we can answer it.
Roy, I have my own pet theory, which has absolutely no scientific backup of course. In the 1950s when the USA was testing the hydrogen bomb for the first time in the South Pacific, observers noted that something started burning in the stratosphere above the test site. It was an orange glowing ring which was observed which grew larger over several days till it stretched from horizon to horizon, when it apparently stopped burning.
Perhaps this was the creation of the hole in the ozone layer, but why would it move to the southern latitudes rather than stay in the tropics if this was the case?
12
Like you, I can’t say with any certainty but I would think that what they saw was plasma created by the explosion. The bomb would definitely be hot enough to create it.
A lot of things have been blamed on nuclear bomb testing but I’m doubtful that many of them are real. Fallout is the only real danger and it comes from the fission bomb need to start the fusion reaction. As I understand it, the fusion doesn’t have any lingering radiation. Once it’s over, all the radiation you’re going to get has already happened.
We certainly do have more questions than answers though.
32
Everyone seems to ignore Mount Cerebus, a volcano in Antarctica that is continuously pumping out chlorine… which just so happens to be one of the major components of ozone depletion (CFC – chloroflourocarbon). This does explain why the hole is over Antarctica, something else conveniently side-stepped when people mention that, with most of the CFCs being liberated north of the equator, why is the hole over the South Pole?
11
Indeed volcanoes + sea water are a perfect environment to make CFC type chemicals quite naturally.
11
Erebus, not Cerebus, master mouse. Nice little bit of info here – I keep a link to it because the pictures are so cool – volcano at below 0 temps!
http://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=390020
00
You’re exporting it – 5C on our verandah in western Qld this morning
22
Oops on the way that is written. Temp was +5.
52
Shiver me pineapples!
12
Bernd
Not wet enough for pineapples as yet
22
You have to love records, but think of that first year, 120 years ago. It was their coldest year ever and their warmest year. The next year it was only one of those things as the new year took one record. After fifty years there were one in fifty year events and beating the record was a one in fifty chance.
So now we get a world spending one trillion dollars a year to prevent records, even by 0.01C. Worse, the IPCC is absolutely certain that the major world problem, the most urgent moral problem of a generation is industrialization in Western democracies and Climate Change caused wholly and solely by CO2 which can only be solved by an Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change run by the United Nations and world taxation. What a surprise!
Even today in the Australian another planted piece about the former Chair of the IPCC and seven top climate scientists warning about a potential 2C warming by 2050, since 1900. I suppose this is to counter the collapse of the now obviously fragile and even dangerous wind driven grid in South Australia and the coldest ever day in Perth.
Robert Watson as an atmospheric chemist has the right qualifications and it is noticeable that he has softened his stand dramatically in the last few years.
By 2010 he said “”The mistakes all appear to have gone in the direction of making it seem like climate change is more serious by overstating the impact. That is worrying. The IPCC needs to look at this trend in the errors and ask why it happened.” Adding “We should always be challenged by sceptics. The IPCC’s job is to weigh up the evidence. If it can’t be dismissed, it should be included in the report. Point out it’s in the minority and, if you can’t say why it’s wrong, just say it’s a different view.”
214
Now that does not mean Watson is right and he was the one who blamed the ozone hole on Chlorinated Flouro Carbons, which does not explain why there is no ozone hole where most people live and one above Antactica where no one lives. However as a perennial chairman he seems less dictatorial and more appropriately qualified than railway engineer and soft porn writer Pachauri, the former head of the IPCC. Even if it was all true though, are we really prepared to panic over 1.5C when we are all allegedly up 1.0C already with no disaster in sight.
164
You also have to think, as we are being warned that 1.5C is imminent, about just how sensitive the world is to a tiny shift in an average. This is never discussed. If we have moved 1C in a world average in 100 years, what really does this mean. What really has changed. Forget this ‘extreme events’ business. Would 0.5C change Antarctica? Greenland? It might change the arctic ice cap dramatically because the average there is 0C but so what. What does 0.5C mean in Singapore or Nairobi? Are we being deliberately worried about nothing much? Tipping points? Sudden catastrophic change when there is no evidence whatsoever of this? Is the IPCC pushing its own catastropic agenda simply to justify itself? It looks obvious given these press releases implying imminent disaster and the desperate claims that every flood, every storm, every bushfire is a direct consequence of ‘Climate Change’.
204
Look above at the ozone hole in 2015 and geomagnetic activity. Commentary probably unnecessary.
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-planetary-a-index.gif
21
… no ozone hole where most people live and one above Antactica where no one lives
Which makes one wonder if the albedo strength is the real player here. Or at least it makes me wonder.
43
Or is it just a lot colder and the land a lot higher and the air a lot thinner. Antarctica is all at 4,000 metres and twice the size of Australia, so you would think the air above might be very different to the thicker, warmer air over the Arctic?
My point is that if it was man made, as we are told, it should be where people live. The standard explanation by its promoter and inventor, former chairman of the IPCC obviously does not fit the facts at all. Worse for us, the cost of refrigerants has soared, a huge tax on the public. One kg of gas to refill your airconditioner can be $1000 and people now throw airconditioners away and buy a new one from China. What sort of solution is that?
Then there is the idea that a scientist is always right, because he is a scientist. This nutty idea is behind so much taxation, all to fix world problems. It hasn’t worked for the Ozone hole and poor South Australia has been punished severely by Gaia for trying to reduce local CO2. We are in the realms of Science Fiction. L.Ron Hubbard would have loved Climate Change and the Ozone hole. So much more public cash than Thetans.
63
Close but it’s to do with magnetic fields and high energy particles from space.
The Earth’s magnetic field (always changing) interacts with the Sun’s (also constantly changing) with the result of drawing ozone away from the magnetic poles.
There is also a shielding effect to the magnetic fields that modulates high-energy particle flux which may directly affect the O3, but is plausible more effective at producing cloud condensation nucleii; producing cloud cover that modulates the amount of sunlight in the biosphere. Keep in mind that the biogenic and photochemical sources of ozone rely on sunlight for the conversion, so less ozone is produced naturally where the sun shines less; and where it’s cloudy when it could shine.
02
… no ozone hole where most people live and one above Antactica where no one lives
Which makes one wonder if the albedo strength is the real player here. Or at least it makes me wonder.
There must be something rather diabolical in penguin flatulence methinks.
02
Near the start of the hysteria James Hansen said we would be facing 3℉ (1.7℃) by 2010. As the money is gone perhaps we should sue for the missing heat.
Or was it always missing?
http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/29/2015-paper-finds-new-zealand-warmer-in-1860s-contaminated-data-falsely-warms-last-century-by-325/#sthash.4c6d5r5A.dpbs
51
Again the logic was simple. Change all the thermometers in the 1980s to high precision electronic and get +0.5C in ten years.
Then by the miracle of arithmetic, predict a guaranteed +5C in 100 years.
As the years pass and nothing happens, just keep reducing the target.
So twenty years later we have +0.5 in thirty years, so promise another +1 in the remaining 70 years and tell people to worry.
This will just keep going as long as the money, jobs, first class travel, carbon credits keep flowing.
Underneath all this is the absurdity that the world is worrying about a temperature change which could hardly be determined 100 years ago.
It must have been fun to create a ‘world temperature’ for 1900, when the poles had not been reached, Everest had not been climbed and much of the Southern Hemisphere nearly empty and carefully read thermometers were accurate to 1C. Just extrapolate and interpolate across the Pacific and Africa and Siberia. Make up temperatures for the oceans which cover 2/3 of the planet. Make out that this artificially created World Temperature in hindsight is accurate to 0.1C. Utter nonsense.
92
I give it to next Wednesday and it will not be in the top ten coldest Septembers, they’ll just put it back in the blender and it will be warmed up to the required temperature. You have to keep the population on message.
142
Don’t worry I’m sure BOM and NOAA will adjust it er homogenise it back to warmest ever September .
52
Soon they will blame these events on force X
51
More likely than anything to do with CO2.
62
About a year ago I switched to another electrickery company. As we know, we’ve been subjected to charts on our bills showing our CO2 emissions in tonnes.
I had to call the company for a different reason, but at the end of the conversation the operator asked if she could help me with anything else.
I asked her if that useless CO2 chart could be removed from my bill to reduce printing costs. She believed it was mandated by State grabbermint so that was a no-no.
I reminded her about basic photosynthesis that she should have learned in school and asked why I’m not receiving a rebate for greening the planet. The silence was deafening, but finally she said she’d pass it on to her supervisor. We both had a giggle over this, but I noted to her that when this AGW goose is cooked, I’ll be demanding a rebate. I was surprised when she said: “Haha.. Expect the CO2 chart to magically disappear..”.
She definitely got the message.
122
Good to hear…the more people can be shown its all a huge lie, the better…
71
Tuning up the energy consultant eh….. Olaf you dog! 🙂
You do realise us d#niers are seen as the bad boys, and you know what type girls are mostly attracted to?……. Great success! 🙂
41
I’ll be charging them the going rate.. How much are carbon credits per tonne now..?
11
Queensland has had 3rd wettest September after 1906 and 2010, according to BOM. Wet in the east, cold in the west. All to do with sea temperatures and atmospheric circulation as we recover from a big El Nino (1905-06, 2009-10, 2015-16) possibly going into La Nina. Lots of moisture over Indonesia and New Guinea, big wet season coming.
92
I am in Brisbane region and have noticed September has been unusually cool and wet. My thermometer broke ages ago so have no record of temps but as I have a nursery I notice changes in the weather (bit like farmers). Nights have been so cool it has been slowing down normal spring growth. And I’m still putting a coat on each night and morning. Very unusual.
62
Ken, I like your work. You would know that across a large state there are variations. In my area of SE Qld I would call the Sept. rain average (actual 65.5mm cf average over 125yrs 59.6mm) the highest Sept. rain was in 1906 at 227.1 mm -the minimum was 0.0 mm in 1980 and 1987
31
We have a local election – the firies however are actually out trying to spread the word they are under resourced quite badly.
Interestingly, when I started chatting to them about the BS about climate change, I could out of the corner of my eye, watch the local Labor candidate trying to look as small as possible….they know they are up to their ears in it…
Interestingly, the local gummint has allowed many suburbs to grow out into the bush, but not provide the fire protection for them. As you know if you studied Agenda 21, the plan is to force people into high density mega-cities. I guess if you followed the teachings of the Climate Change Death Cult, you would want peoples houses to be burnt down to force them out of “Gaia” into mega cities.
Leftists also hate the idea of ownership of private property, so I guess many houses burnt down is inline with all this….and probably celebrated.
I emailed a local Labor candidate a while back after we had a letterbox flyer about “urgent climate change” and the fact they had hired a local hall, at great taxpayers expense, to discuss it. They responded fairly boiler-plate leftist CAGW hand-wringing style, and I just asked them for scientific proof of CAGW…..silence…..
In local elections, you have an opportunity to really spread the word about The Big Lie, and to really give the local leftists a bit of stick and let them know we are onto them and what The Big Lie is all about.
161
I remember freezing in Perth in September; 1995 IIRC. No heating, flimsy house…shiver!
11
October to December 2016 over most of Australia will be cooler and wetter than average.
http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/monitor/Pages/Climate.aspx
32
Facinating predictions from Agriculture! Compare with the rainfall (Figure 3) & temperature graphs (Figure 4) that BoM has issued to the NSW Rural Fire Service to base planning on:
http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/file/6477/download?token=2G86OgMx
The only thing alike is the shape of the continent 😉
Admittedly months are different (Ag Oct – Dec & RFS Sep – Nov), they shouldn’t be THAT different!
I think audit od Bom is passed due: Livelihoods and lives depend on getting the planning right.
(Been lurking for years but this forced me to post)
10
Ha! Trapped by moderation for saying how cold I was in Perth in Sep 1995!
11
I tried to mention when the lake froze over in 1974, and was told “Watch your language your trading on thin ice”.
31
Attroshious spellin!
20
Actually, I think it was 1997, not 1995! Come on brain, don’t give up on me yet, please!
01
The Great Southern Cold Blob in the ocean south of Western & South Australia is clearly caused by Anthropogenic Global Warming: Will Steffen told us so. /sarc
So, the dams are overflowing over east just like Tim Flim-Flam predicted? He didn’t predict that? He predicted the opposite?
72
Warmest September by mean max in my part of coastal NSW was 1919. Coolest was 1932. This clearly indicates…Wait, I need to change the subject for a moment…
Septembers with zero rain occurred here in 1907, 1928, and 2003. Our wettest September was in 1914, though 1932 was nearly as wet. This clearly indicates…Wait, I need to change the subject again…
Our hottest year by mean max was 1915, the coolest was 1929. Driest was 1902, wettest was 1950.
All of which is clear proof…Wait, I need to change the subject again…
81
Pulitzer Prize-winning, non-profit(?), “non-partisan” “news” organization, INSIDE CLIMATE NEWS, has an explanation, jo.
only surprised they used “Global Warming” in the headline and not “Climate Change”.
after all, they admit it’s not Global – in fact, it’s not even Continental – and it’s not Warming either, depending…
27 Sept: InsideClimateNews: Bob Berwyn: Global Warming Trend Warms the U.S. West, Leaves East Shivering
Weather dichotomy, which leaves two halves of the U.S. in opposite extremes, is a trend tied to climate change, new study says.
The pattern, described in a new study in the journal Atmospheres (LINK) as a “North American winter temperature dipole,” has been costly, including a multi-year drought in California and economically disruptive snowstorms in the Northeast, according to the scientists who analyzed climate trends in North America.
“Our historical analysis finds robust changes in the warm-West/cool-East pattern over North America within the last 35 years, ” the authors wrote. “We show that the observed positive trend in the warm-West/cool-East events is attributable to historical anthropogenic emissions including greenhouse gases.”
The trend will continue the rest of this century but then level off, as the East becomes too warm for extreme winter conditions, said Stanford University climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, one of the study’s co-authors.
The past two years—Earth’s warmest years on record—brought the greatest East-West temperature contrasts in the observational record…
The research, which involved scientists from Stanford, Columbia University and NASA, adds to a growing body of work that links the buildup of greenhouse gases with major changes in atmospheric circulation…
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27092016/global-warming-trend-warms-only-us-west-leaves-east-shivering
01
Buncha hogwash.
If you look at their chart
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025116/full
a) shows the coasts in grey – pretty much no change.
The “blobs” of hot and cold show the same weather patterns I recall as a youth, and the same patterns that lured quite a few of my dad’s older cousins and aunts & uncles to the west coast, away from northwestern Pennsylvania and northeastern Ohio. And it has been a longstanding joke locally that Juno, Alaska, has nicer winter weather than Cleveland, Ohio, does.
00
Just reading Graham Lloyd, environment editor in the Australian. There is a vague idea that the South Australian problem was caused by a failure to have the same renewable energy targets from State to State. So the solution is to make them all the same? The other problem is that people in the Liberal party are not convinced of ‘the Science’. So the promoters of windmill power will try to use this disaster to force more rules and make say Victoria the same as South Australia, so this will somehow fix the problem.
He does mention that big spinning mechanical generators have a natural frequency which is easier to maintain to 50Hz/rpm. Solar and wind have no natural frequency, but he puzzles that the whole state went down just because the Heywood interconnector was shut ‘to protect Victoria’.
As discussed yesterday, all the Windmills went off. There is an implied idea by Lloyd that Victoria was the culprit when in fact the windmills went off predictably because of the high winds. What sort of robustness can you have in a State system when you are utterly dependent on power from another state? Still there is the usual stuff blaming Climate Change for the storm and lack of laws for the disaster. The nutty idea of using windmills and solar to precisely maintain a 50Hz generation system to high precision just sails over Lloyd’s head. That also explains why he has no idea how long it takes to get the set of dominoes up again.
So that’s it. The entire SA system fell like dominoes. The first domino was the Heywood connector. Many of the other dominoes were pushed over by their owners to save them. It’s then a bit like restarting the chorus line in the Rockettes but without the music. House of cards. Dominoes. The SA system is not bricks and mortar secure and Lloyd thinks if everyone copied it, there would be no problem?
Finally he is worried that this might prevent or delay the closure of Hazelwood. He really believes CO2 is pollution.
112
He mentions that individual generators were ready but the problem was in the distribution system? Really? He needs to understand that you cannot connect two batteries in parallel unless they are exactly the same voltage or they self destruct. AC makes it far worse as the target is moving and moving sinusoidally. Everything to match perfectly.
Victoria had every right and need to protect its grid from a system which was known to be shutting down suddenly to protect their own assets. In fact if you turned off all the windmills, South Australia could buy all its power from Victoria and stop being the Don Quixote state.
72
Grahame Lloyd is a disappointment as an “environment reporter”. He clearly accepts the “science of climate change” and seems to make no effort to look any further. There is s much happening in real climate science at the moment, especially with the researchers who are looking at the effects of the current changes in the sun, but that is not the news that Lloyd wants to promulgate.
52
Damn, missed the excesssss ‘s’.
01
What it does do is highlight the stupidity of not having an integrated plan. Reliable and affordable electricity is a right as much as clean drinking water. The populous has become lazy thanks to the past reliability of electricity. Perhaps now they will take the time to learn what baseload means?
Lloyd will be hugely disappointed by the almost unanimous criticism of the SA situation. One tiny spark of hope is that “affordability” was mentioned twice in the article and that may be a first.
Check out the statement by the EU Industriaal Commissioner that Europe is facing. “Manufacturing massacre” because of the higher costs resulting from renewables.
21
I’ve seen some probably correct theories about what exactly caused the whole of SA to lose power ,the truth may never get out seeing they said they had no idea of exactly what happened but it had nothing to do with wind generation .
This statement so early suggests the true story may never get out unless someone in the system whistlblows .
61
Also it would be great if the cold around Perth meant more showers. SE WA is the last remaining drought area in Australia. Most other places are wet to flooded, the real end to the millenium drought like the Federation drought before it, which the BOM does not recognize. What is obvious is that Australia is not only a land of droughts and flooding rains, but that there is a 100 year cycle in play. To the climate alarmists, it must be like watching a basket ball game. Every storm is proof of their private opinion which they call ‘the Science’. Still, I would wish more rain for Perth and South. It is the only capital where the desalination plant is working and needed.
51
But only because they didn’t apply what they learnt from the Wungong dam catchment management exercise to all catchments. All of the dams could be overflowing and, as a bonus, the fuel load for future bush fires substantially reduced.
What we’re also able to learn from the trial is that Greens don’t understand anything.
41
I circulated these ideas in 2007 TdeF –
What the WA Govt should be doing in respect of Perth water supply policy
1. Over-ride Green objections and manage catchments as they were in the mid 1990’s thus doubling dam inflows by an amount of water about equal to production from two desalination factories (=90 GL Per year).
2. Cut the Gnangara pines forthwith and increase underground water pumping potential by about 100 GL per year, (UWA figures from 2002). I think this has been progressed quietly.
3. Take on board the Agritech proposal to desalinate brackish Wellington dam water already being wasted to sea by Govt but augment it to 100 GL per year by adding similar brackish water from the Murray or Avon where hundreds of GL flow to the sea every year.
4. After commencing 1, 2 and 3 above, abandon plans to build the Binningup seawater desalination factory and save taxpayers over a $Billion.
5. The Kwinana desal plant could be mothballed.
6. Stop lying to the public about rainfall.
7. Save the public more $Millions by instructing their Water Corporation to cease pointless media advertising. Get rid of many staff involved in desalination (more $Millions saved), just keep a watching brief on desalination. Instruct Water Corporation to get on with their job of harvesting available free natural water at the lowest cost possible for the benefit of the WA public.
8. Could have added – The Yarragadee in the SW could augment Perth water supplies – ignore the local NIMBIES – the various aquifers are wasting water to the ocean – what we took would be lost in the noise.
81
Great ideas, but can visualize the vested interests, both government and private, who just smile quietly when they hear of common-sense concepts like yours. They have their claws firmly gripping the controls, and they aren’t letting go. Fancy careers, big contracts, way too much at stake to even think about cheaper, more abundant water for Perth.
21
There are links here to the Wayback machine which has preserved the Agritech www sites from several years back.
Plans to reduce WA wheatbelt salinity and utilize Wellington Dam
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=4482
The Agritech Wellington Dam project stands on its own.
And as you say WA Govt has assiduously opposed both projects for years. Yet even now slightly saline Wellington dam water is being wasted to the sea.
A gem from Hansard in 2007 –
West Australian Premier talks utter nonsense about rainfall
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=108
Mr A.J. CARPENTER (WA Premier): “..It has stopped raining in the south west of Western Australia. The rain no longer falls from the sky in sufficient quantities to fill the dams to fill the pipes to fill the cups for people to drink…”
00
This can only mean one thing: We have not paid London and New York banks like Goldman Sachs enough in climate reparations in order to prevent the severe global-warming-ocean-cooling, and now we will pay the consequences for our heresy.
This blob of super cool ocean has been sent towards Australia by the angry Carbon Gods, upset at our want to dramatically warm all of the oceans.
Tim Flannery was right all along! The cooling of the warming and the wetting of the drying are all the result of inadequate carbon indulgence purchases, and if we could only shut off the remaining coal power plants, prevent all coal exports, and place Chinese made wind turbines on every square inch of the coastal strips, we could achieve … absolutely nothing … but our trade deficit and budget deficit collapse would be a big win for Communists posing as ‘greens’ in order to smash free market capitalism! … as Christiana Figueres clearly stated:
I think this was code speak for “Screw the science; remodelling world economics from a centralized commissariat is going to be too hard without some hard fearporn, and some serious soft-bribery to maintain a compliant media and academic chorus.”
21
Just add it to the list, Jo … along with this – the ABC, a mere 10 months ago, asking: Is drought the new normal for the once lush south-east of SA?
41
Someone might like to join this “debate”. Oh I guess that when you read what it’s all abut at their link you might not bother.
Join the Climate Change Debate
Our Brainstorms are challenges that engage with you, our users, on the hottest research topics. This month we are talking about Climate Change. Share your thoughts with the Mendeley Community. The best entry as judged by the Mendeley team will earn a $50 Amazon gift certificate. http://communications.elsevier.com/r/?id=h2f3143ce,10034a1d,10059f25
08
Seriously?/?
Looks like RABID alarmista AGW site.
I doubt if anything posted there by a realist will ever get published.
We shall see.
I just offered up this simple video, from the Niels Bohr Institute.
https://vimeo.com/14366077
73
Excellent reply to “Gregladen”. He immediately went to ‘appeal to authority’; you win.
I’d hit him with running the cross-correlation for the 750 million-year T vs. CO2, and ask him to explain the non-correlation between temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Doubtful he’ll do it; most anyone who looks at it realizes that to run the correlation would disprove their pet theory.
Maybe Craig Thomas would like to take a crack at it, since he’s so knowledgeable?
Regards,
Vlad (another ‘anonymous’ poster, thanks to Dr. DeHavilland)
10
You can pray or employ real Engineers to build stuff that stands up to the predictable rigours of nature. If the Engineers are then checking that stuff is built and maintained as specified, you won’t have power failures when gusts expected once in every 2 years “ravage” the countryside.
I’m worried that society has decayed so much that those running enquiries in e.g. South Australia won’t have a clue as to where to start looking or to have the ability to technically appreciate what is before them; instead having to rely on opinions and a witch hunt to persecute the innocent.
61
Or they will as in Yes Minister
00
Let’s look at the distribution of ozone over the polar circle.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/omps/gif_files/omps_sh_latest.png
01
Polar vortex is shifted toward the Atlantic.
01
For shame, Ms Nova! Donch’a know that weather is not climate? Unless, of course,
it can be used to prove a point that it’s all the fault of yoomans (or, more specifically, white yoomans).
00
Why have we become so obsessed with the weather?
Weather use to be just weather once.
01
We are obsessed with weather because of the effect on our lives, politics and economies of IPCC global warming dogmas.
Our rising power bills, water supplies, reliability of our electricity grids, agriculture, resources industries, – all are affected negatively by IPCC dogmas.
20
BOM QLD reported this Sunday morning.
“Bit cool this morning? Gladstone Airport had its coldest Oct morning on record and Gympie fell to 4.9C, its coldest Oct morning since 1981.”
10
Interestingly with all this eastern rain, it is not nicely distributed.
Just behind the Gold Coast, towards Beaudesert, we are 7 inches, 180mm if you believe rain falls in metric measure, for the year to date.
Our local water carters are doing well.
01
Sorry.
7 inches below average that is. It is the second driest year in the 24 I have been keeping my property records.
01
It just goes to show that surface temperatures tell us nothing about global warming or cooling or climate change or what ever they call it now. It is all about temperature changes in the atmosphere and so far measurements from satellites and weather balloons have shown not much change over a long time.
I’ll give an example of real world personal experience of surface temperatures. I live on the coast about 50km North of Perth and work at Perth airport about 70kms from home. On Friday morning when I left for work it seemed quite warm and I thought to myself I don’t need a coat today. When I got out of my car at work it was very cold and I was glad I was very glad I kept my coat on. Point is that depending on where you measure the surface temperature you can get whatever result you might prefer. Don’t know what you call that but it is NOT science.
So much time is wasted in arguments over surface temperatures being indicative of global warming, or not, that it drives me to despair for the quality of scientific understanding in government departments, the media and in the general public.
Planetary climate is driven by solar activity and the great oceanic currents not by minor changes in the levels of trace gases in the atmosphere. People really should only use the discussion of surface temperatures as a way to initiate polite conversation in elevators or on buses not as evidence in support of a backward cult/religion bent on destroying industrial civilization.
01
But the headline actually reads (when I got to it, anyway):
Perhaps there was an earlier version that said:
00
The online version is often different from the print version. I copied the online one.
00
The Agritech projects WAZZA mentioned today, have the ability to produce 250GL of potable and high quality water for industry plus 75mw of cold, green renewable hydro electric power and in the process recover up to two million hectares
of saline wheat belt land, which we currently lose at the rate of 11.4 hectares per hour. This restored land, rivers and streams used to discharge 1200 GL pa of good water, which is now saline thanks to the government agencies thinking that
their superior scientific credentials will save the day.
Let me assure them that in the last 30 years and with over $300m in funding, they have not corrected one nett hectare of land and never will, because the trapping, storing, delivery and treatment of water are in the domain of engineering disciplines.
What WAZZA omitted to tell you about Wellington Dam, is the annual discharge of the saline discharge is 45 billion litres which in these times should be a criminal offence as the Water Corporation recently fined 1151 people a total of $111,000
for breaching water restrictions and on that basis the Water Corporation should be fined $45 million for their continuing waste.
Waterguru
10
[…] this same pattern is evident in the surface temperature data for Western Australia. While Perth has had its coldest September on record, it’s actually been very warm in the north of the […]
00
BOM caught out crying climate wolf yet again. The pictures tell it all:
https://themarcusreview.com/2016/10/04/were-all-gonna-fry/
01
Will Steffen, “”The atmosphere is packing much more energy than 70 years ago, which contributes to the increasing intensity of such storms. Intense rainfall is projected to increase in Australia and has already increased at a global level.”
00
Are you going to use the records or not. If you are, as in this article, then you have to consider that the planet’s temperature increase is rising, even if you use the outlier 98-99 as starting point.
00
If anybody’s interested in September 2016 average temperatures across WA and not just Perth, see http://www.waclimate.net/september-coldest-2016.html.
This page analyses historic raw and adjusted September temps at all 25 ACORN stations in WA. September 2016 was the hottest ever in far northern Kalumburu but the 15 stations south of and including Geraldton east to Eucla together had their coldest September mean temp since the earliest of their observations in 1897. Within the homogenised ACORN temperature dataset, it was their coldest September average since 1910.
That’s their cumulative average, with six of the 15 stations individually having their coldest mean temp since their first years of observation (Perth, Geraldton and Katanning 1897, Bridgetown 1901, Cunderdin 1950, Dalwallinu 1955).
The BoM says 31 southern WA weather stations had their coldest ever September minimum, eight had their coldest ever max and 26 stations had their coldest ever mean temperature. The available data suggests there were considerably more stations that had their coldest ever September than those listed by the bureau. The BoM is also only comparing the current station location records, not temps from before sites shifted over the past 30 years or so.
The 25 ACORN station analysis uses all available raw temps back to 1897 and its comparison of homogenised ACORN temps adjusts for any perceived bias from station relocations since 1910 (the accuracy of ACORN adjustments is a separate issue but it’s the official dataset that determines national climate policy). All temps are from Stephenson screens.
The page has an Excel download with all raw and ACORN September min, max and mean temps at the 25 stations since 1897, so it’s easy to check the data.
00