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BREAKING: Massive magnitude 7.9 earthquake hits New Zealand tonight at midnight local time. 90km North of Christchurch. Thankfully, so far there are no reports of injuries or deaths. UPDATE: One Two deaths now reported. The quake was rated 7.4 initially but upgraded to 7.9 by Geoscience Australia. The small tsunami is expected to reach Australia around now (3 – 4am AEST). Many New Zealanders were evacuated and moved to higher ground for fear of the tsunami estimated at 2.5 – 5m. For more see NZ TV News and Twitter: #Earthquake. Maybe it’s connected to the full moon, maybe it isn’t. Best wishes to all our New Zealand readers.
UPDATE: Another strong 6.4 Earthquake has hit NZ, and a lot of small ones.
UPDATE: Clarence River got blocked, a lake formed, and has breached due to the quake. There were possibly two simultaneous quakes at midnight last night. In 2010 the fault rupture was about 30km long. This time it was about four times as long (about 3:30ish on the video). There have been over 400 aftershocks small earthquakes. h/t Tom.
UPDATE: NZ Geo’s say the big quake was 7.5. They are clocking up the aftershocks by the minute here! Two near 6.0 in the last five minutes. The islands are shaking. h/t to Rereke.
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Supermoon Monday
Monday night the moon will rise about 2 hours after it is at the closest point in its loopy orbit (for Australians). Officially it’s called a perigee moon.
ABC – The event, known as the supermoon, occurs when a full or new moon passes closer to Earth in its monthly orbit.
The coincidence will take place three times in 2016 — October 16, November 14 and December 14.
But the November supermoon is special because it will be “the closest full moon to date in the 21st century”, according to NASA.
It will become full just two hours after its closest approach to Earth, arguably making it an “extra-super Moon”.
It is not expected to appear again until November 25, 2034.
Photo: taken tonight from a handheld click-n-shoot camera by me (Canon SX50). It’s not even an SLR. Remarkable technology that lets us see things with a click that the worlds best thinkers could only dream of a few hundred years ago.
Is the quake in NZ connected to (or exacerbated by) the moon?
Ide et al (2016) suggests it might be:
“In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress.
… This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.”
Other curious stories about The Moon.
Earth creates tides in the rock that is the Moon
There is a pretty cool 50 cm bulge on the moon that the Earth creates and it wanders around the surface of the moon.
The Mystery of the dark side of the moon solved after 55 years
The Moon and Earth appear to have been locked in a joint orbit since the beginning. The same side of the moon has probably always faced Earth, and the two sides of the moon are quite different because of this. There is a centrifugal, thermal, and gravitational effect from Earth that makes the composition of the moon different on the far side. The molten minerals on the moon have kind of been centrifuged into a gradient.
Can the Moon change our climate? Can tides in the atmosphere solve the mystery of ENSO?Ian Wilson has a neat theory about the moon generating tides in our atmosphere that appear to create standing waves that slowly shift around the earth. Could it be that when these standing waves line up over the Pacific the trade winds strengthen and we get an El Nino? see also The Moons’ influence on the atmosphere over Australia.
REFERENCE
IDe et al (2016) Earthquakes potential revealed by tidal influence Nature Geoscience, 12 SEPTEMBER | VOL 9 | NOVEMBER 2016 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience
USeful Moon links: Moon Earth apogee-perigee calculator distance. Micromoon (opposite of a Supermoon). Moon calendar.
What happened then? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_1948, sorted by magnitude
#1 7.8 mag 74 deaths Panay, Philippines 15.0km January 24
Also, a big jump in solar wind speed following high density solar wind http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00840/m1royactlsos.gif (h/t ren)
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Update: Two deaths reported now in NZ:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-13/new-zealand-earthquake-hits-near-christchurch-generating-tsunami/8021922
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Clarence River: Dam has breached after earthquake damage
NZ Government issues warning!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11747820
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Some may find this Wiki article on earth tides to be interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_tide
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“Also, a big jump in solar wind speed following high density solar wind ”
I would not worry too much about the solar wind, it does not even reach the earth’s surface.
If you throw enough random variables together, you will get a coincidence sooner or later.
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Thank you for posting this information and the recent article in Nature about gravitational forces inducing earthquakes.
When the dust finally settles, we will realize that many aspects of ancient astrology were more scientific than postmodern “consensus science” funded by grants from public funds.
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Humanity’s awakening to reality will occur very quickly if president Trump insists that NAS (the US “National” Academy of Sciences) and NASA (the former US Space Agency) answer in public the question that Dr. Peter Toth asked in 1977: “Is the Sun a pulsar?“
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The potential damage from corruption in politics pales in comparison to that from corruption in the scientific community when scientists use public funds to deceive the public.
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The Sun:
i.) Encompasses Earth within the helio-sphere;
ii.) Supplies the heat that warms Earth; and
iii.) Physically shakes the whole planet Earth.
See Thomson, D.J., Lanzerotti, L.J., Vernon, F.L., Lessard, M.R. and Smith, L.T.P., “Solar modal structure of the engineering environment,” Proceedings of the IEEE, 2007, 95 (5), 1085 – 1132. See also ESA Space Science News, “Moving to the rhythm of the Sun,” http://www.esa.int/esaSC/SEMJJYUL05F_index_0.html
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A heartfelt sorrow goes out to all our Kiwi friends and allies, stay safe stay strong.
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Stay drunk!
Hey, if you are going to get a case of the shakes, and fall over, you might as well have multiple excuses.
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We loved NZ on our various visits there. We were very upset about Christchurch. I remember standing on the ‘balcony’ round the tower of Christchurch Cathedral and feeling a slight tremor (1985) and then seeing it confirmed on the seismograph at the museum. At that time I’d thought that the South Island was relatively free of seismic activity. You live and learn. On one visit I drove up from Wellington to Auckland by myself and actually didn’t feel a thing, despite expecting to. I was in a campervan so thought I’d notice any activity. I had no problem in noticing and being spooked by earth tremors in Cyprus!
My thoughts are with our NZ cousins and hope there’s no more loss of life and limb.
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Spire, not tower. Sorry.
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NZ straddles the Australian and Pacific plates. The Pacific plate is mostly subducting below the Australian plate but there are places, like the South Island of NZ, where the two plates butt heads. The South Island is the tectonically more active one, but not by much.
The main fault (or the junction between the two plates) runs up the Southern Alps from Dusky Sound (South Western “corner” of the South Island), runs North East up to about Murchison and then goes east across the top of the South Island and into the sea bed through Kaikoura as shown in this map. The black lines are the faults. Kaikoura is about where the two lower faults leaving the land and enterting the sea bed are on the map. The fault becomes the Hikurangi Trench.
The North Island is wholly on the Australian Plate. The Eastern part of the South Island from Kaikoura to Bluff is on the Pacific plate.
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Correction to link above (3.1.1.2)
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Thanks for that Sophocles
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NZ shares a tectonic plate with the ring of fire around the Pacific. The recently when there was a major quake in the ocean off NZ, I wondered if there would be more. Then we had Fukishima, a subsequent quake off Japan and another killer tsunami. Possibly the shock wave loosens another part under tension. Australian cities are far from such problems but there is a risk to life which cannot be handled by building windmills. The Climate Change scare would be the worst defined terror to hit the planet. No one even knows why it is scary. Cities have not been drowned. In fact not a single life has been lost. Ebola though was an incredible and real threat and was handled by international cooperation through many agencies. The IPCC needs to be closed. The UN has no business in the weather.
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NZ shares a tectonic plate with the ring of fire around the Pacific
There are many interlocking tectonic plates around the Pacific. There is a very active subduction zone, a “branch” off the various Pacific plates, around the north of Australia as this continent pushes its’ way northwards. The Indonesian archipelago and PNG experience the devastating results of this frequently.
The notion that tidal stress can exacerbate tectonic movement (ie. that large tremors are initiated from the surface downwards) is extremely speculative.
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I would suggest more than speculative; more a matter a matter of how much.
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Subduction zones on the continental edges with their attendant tremors and volcanic activities are driven by sea-floor spreading from upwelling and spread of magma flows from the mid-ocean ridges. There is incontrovertible empirical evidence for that. None of that process is driven by surface forces acting downwards.
Very minor tremors are instigated on occasion by near-surface events which exacerbate existing fracture systems. The seismograph records from even the small-scale Water Board grids under water supply dams show this.
But Richter 7.9 events are not driven by tidal changes. If people wish to believe otherwise, fair enough, but this is akin to superstition and based on the same type of fear.
It is relevant here to note that the Alps in NZ South Island are actively growing from subduction activity along and off the West Coast pushing metasediment transversely up the active Alpine Fault. This subduction zone swings between the two islands from west of the South Island to east of the North Island. Consequently the South Island is all alpine chain building while the North Island is all “mud pies” (eg. Rotorua) and other volcanic outlets. Both islands are prone to severe tremors, of course.
The Ide et al 2016 paper referenced is highly speculative. The geological literature is peppered with speculative papers, as is all strands of science.
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NZ is largely a farming community and people live on clifftops and on the plains and the East coast. The whole South Island has a tiny population at 250,000 people, much smaller than say Geelong in Victoria. So they report a tsunami and only earthquake damage, especially to Victorian brick structures, not timber or modern. The devastation of Christchurch was going to happen when an epicentre was close enough to unreinforced brick structures. A sudden 1 metre shift sideways will bring down any brick walls. The same in the desert countries like Afghanistan where whole villages vanish into crevasses.
Japan however is a real worry with 120 million people and a fishing country where 90% of the land is rocky, so incredibly crowded on the seafront in low lying areas and narrow valleys. A tsunami in Japan means total devastation. Similarly with fishing communities in the Bay of Bengal where in Bangladesh 1/2 the population lives a metre above sea level but the lack of rocky valleys make it less of a problem inland.
So I noted one big earthquake before in the Tasman ocean and Aceh followed. The one SE of NZ and Fukishima and many other Japanese towns were hit hard. I am putting this observation out there as far more than coincidental and that people around the ring of fire should be on high alert.
I believe the massive shock travels through the plate at acoustic speeds, say 700 km/hr. It may even rebound through the planet, but may free a frozen joint elsewhere in the region, as has happened before.
Last time I noted that SMSs from friends in Germany saved people on the beachfront in Thailand. No one had been told and people heard about Aceh from their relatives at home and ran. Others chased the sea out. The government had 2 1/2hours warning and said nothing.
So I wrote to many saying that the telephone companies should SMS every phone in the area. Now that has become practice. Even the poorest communities around the world have mobiles. About six months later, people started testing SMS broadcasts.
Now I am suggesting that a major earthquate around the Pacific rim should have all commnities on high alert for a period of one week. I could be wrong. In fact I hope I am wrong.
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Sorry about all the misspellings. The other area which should apply is the Californian approach to bushfire. Do not defend your home against 10,000C. Run. We had 200 deaths and lost 2000 houses. California has our gum trees, imported in the 1880 and they also lost 2000 homes in the same year buy only 20 people.
SMS is the key. Run, drive, anything but you cannot defend against a tsunami or bushfires. As for people saying this is climate change, extreme events, they are beneath contempt. These are endemic problems. Tsunamis for Japan. Bushfires for Australia, California, Spain, Greece, places with Australian gum trees. Like the droughts and flooding rains.
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You are correct – for Australian bushfires. Eucalyptus tree crowns are surrounded by a haze of aromatic volatile – and combustible – compounds. The fire just jumps from a crown to a crown. The fire spreads rather slowly in a spruce or birch forest.
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No, it’s over a million, only just, but it’s there. It’s 330,000 less than the population of Auckland City (at 1,377,000). The last time I holidayed in the South Island (a tiki-tour all around it on my motorcycle) in 1984, it was over 860,000, heading for 880,000. It’s roads were very low in traffic, which made such rides after the Auckland traffic, a while lot of fun.
The Aceh earthquake was the “Ring of Fire” waking up. It’s been pretty active since with earthquake and volcanic activity all around it since then. It’s always been that way but activity seems to rise and fall.
You have to remember, too, that our global communications network was not in place until very recently (relatively), so we didn’t hear or know about a lot of this activity around the world anywhere nearly as easily or readily as we do now.
Acoustic speeds through different materials varies widely. The slowest is through the least dense material (the air at or about sea level) at 340m/sec (approx) or about 1230 km/hr (768mph), 1484m/sec in water. Through the crust and the mantle and core, where density varies significantly, it would be at least similar to the speed through water and maybe anything up 8km/sec. It’s about 5km/sec through iron, which is quite plentiful on Planet Earth but not in pure form.
Big shocks do echo and they have other obvious effects. The Dino Killer splashdown 66MYA sent a massive shock wave through the planet. It’s exit point was what we now call the Deccan Traps in India. The Siberian Traps may have been formed by a similar big smack back when they were formed.
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ianl8888:
There was work done in the 1970’s correlating earthquakes with the perigee of the moon and position of the sun. Unfortunately I haven’t got details but Ibn Browning was involved. Wikipedia is very dismissive -“Iben Browning was an American business consultant and author. He is most notable for having made various failed predictions of disasters involving climate, volcanoes, and earthquakes.”
I met Dr. Browning when he was speaking at an Emergency Management conference in Arizona, shortly before his death.
At this conference he accurately predicted coming global climatic side-effects of the major volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991.
Twenty years later, the recent earthquakes and tsunami hitting Japan near the time of lunar perigee show that his tidal forces earthquake theory is also sound. He predicted an earthquake on the tiny Missouri town of New Madrid after Dr. Browning said in August that his calculations showed that on Dec. 3, plus or minus 48 hours, the area had a 50-50 chance of being the center of a destructive earthquake. This was blown up by the media and did not happen. While Dr. Browning’s standing in the scientific community suffered, it was recalled that he had warned of the 1989 San Francisco earthquake a week in advance and had predicted the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980.
Possibly because
When asked about the new media fad of global warming, he said,
“I wish global warming was true. For every degree increase in temperature, crops can be grown a degree higher in latitude, and there would be no food shortages on the planet. But, unfortunately, global warming is just not true.”
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” The UN has no business in the weather.”
The UN is nothing but a glorified speakeasy that has got above itself and been allowed, by the foolish politicians of the world, to grab far too much of our money and power.
As Trump is now showing, it is time to take the money and power back.
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Bet someone links the earthquake and super moon to globull warming .
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Atmospheric CO2 magnifies the size of the Moon, thereby causing earthquakes.
Grant please. !
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This I must study for myself.. Shoo clouds, SHOO!
Drat this Gorebull Warbling. It’s supposed to be hot and dry. I want a refund.
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My study indicates there is very strong virtual evidence (from the computer model) that CO2 levels drive lunar effects and cause earthquakes.
Where’s my funding
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My research focuses on lunar panels that can generate electricity at night using moonlight.
Where’s my funding
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What about all the recent warming (20th Century) of Mars, Uranus and Neptune? Add tham to your grant application. The bottom of all this warming has got to be gotten to.
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Thanks. I must try a few astro pictures with my new digital camera. It is not even out of its box yet.
We need some Perth weather over here in Melbourne! Did you use a tripod and remote shutter release?
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Tripod? Shutter release? I sat on the ground and steadied my arms on my knees… The camera has a 50X optical zoom. I left it on “Auto”. The moon is so bright, you can get away with anything.
Years ago I used a light meter, set the f-stops and developed B&W’s myself (a few times). Now my only skill is buying a good camera. (And it was only a few hundred, second hand, I’ve had it for a couple of years. I really like the Canon megazoom range.)
Good luck with the weather. I think we are sending a heatwave for you later this week.
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Very impressive.
Your abilities and the Canon camera has given us all a fine view. I can’t see it here as it is too cloudy.
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Cloudy here too; I hope it clears this evening. I’ve unused digital cameras as I’ve become lazy…it’s too easy to send ‘snaps’ by WhatsApp on my ‘phone to the family these days! I might now be encouraged to fish my ‘proper’ cameras out; tripod too if feeling adventurous!
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Send some on to NZ please Jo, we need it.
Apres earthquake, le deluge. It’s fair coming down now.
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I have been out with people who have gotten quite amazing results from stacking quite crappy individual images of planets.
Something like this.
http://www.instructables.com/id/Astrophotography-Star-Photo-Stacking/
Haven’t done it for a few years but the kind of kit we used to use was 6-8inch reflectors and chopped up webcams. Most cheap digitals have lots more capability than that now. for a super moon, consider a neutral density filter though. It will be BRIGHT!
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If tidal forces can exert such influence on solid rock 23 km down, what effect must it have on the human mind?
Perhaps the proximity of the moon has driven Satanic Obama/Clinton/Soros team absolutely senseless.
The moon has long been thought in folklore to affect mental disorders, hence the term “Lunatic”.
If such were to be the case, it is interesting to ponder why only some are affected.
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It only effects the ones that get dragged to the left.
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That’s sinister!
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That’s clever!
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Thanks RW. I couldn’t resist it!
I could be really corny and tell you about our recently acquired handful of cattle; I had really wanted Dexters! They are still nice little steers.
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Well, that’s all right then.
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… and left-handed people are the only ones in the workd who are truly in their right minds.
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and workd is left-handed spelling of world 🙂
(Blasted keyboard: it’s still making mistakes!)
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I have an inlaw who works for the Plod, he reckons the full moon brings out all sorts…
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One occasion in my previous workplace, customer service people were saying customers were worse than usual that day. My comment was “You realise today is a full moon?” They looked at each other, eg is this old devil having us on? Another oldy standing behind said “No, he’s right … I used to be an ambulance driver … I know.”
Supermoon rises today AEST 11.52pm according to http://www.timeanddate.com
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Martin, weatherzone says 17:51 EST for moon rise today so I checked timeanddate for Brisbane and it is the same – 5:51 PM.
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6.2-magnitude quake shakes northwestern Argentina
https://www.yahoo.com/news/6-2-magnitude-quake-shakes-northwestern-argentina-152417204.html
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There are many aftershock of between 4 and 5.4
see the updates here —
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/today.html
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Don’t you people know it’s verboten to discuss any matters extraterrestrial which don’t involve increased funding for NASA? Talk about rude.
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It’s Man’s fault, thanks to Apollo.
Fixed.. 😉
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Give NASA enough money and they might be able to come up with a finding like:
“While we cannot say with certainty that any single tremor series is connected with the election of a Republican, the sort of event we are witnessing at present is consistent with modelling which suggests the possibility of an indirect relationship between conservatism and geological instability. Funding is presently limited and much more work is needed, however recent studies of fish sizes at the time of the 2016 US elections…”
Of course, this quality of finding doesn’t come cheap.
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Rats! I think I just threw a huge oxymoronic spanner into the works of the Moon landing hoax “truth” movement or something. Sheesh. We’ll never hear the end of it now.
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I figure a gravitational effect on the earth being increased, perhaps some parts of the earth are weaker than others, ergo disproportional slippage and resultant earthquake…seems common sense to me….
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Its all over my head Steve, but the gravito thermal effect is growing in popularity as the cause of global warming. It may require the mathematicians and engineers here to clarify.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/all-physical-and-math-proof-needed-that_4.html
A recent Japanese paper found correlation with the moon and earthquakes, but I’m outside the tent and cannot say.
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There are a lot of people against this theory including Anthony Watts. That is based on the fact that once you compress a gas the heat then leaks away and the compressed gas returns to the temperature of its surroundings. That is true until you begin to add in energy from the bottom.
If we have a gas column that is heated at the bottom the hot gas diffuses upward, as the gas rises it’s potential energy increases and its average kinetic energy (Temperature falls) so in column of gas heated at the bottom there must be a gradient of temperature from hot at the bottom to cold at the top. It is simply brought on the KE + PE – Constant, if the height rises (KE / Temp) must fall. Because of the motion of the gases rarified gas that is falling also gets recompressed in a cycle.
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I assume you are writing about the troposheric atmosphere. Above this layer things are a bit different with height v temperature v pressure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Comparison_US_standard_atmosphere_1962.svg
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That science might understand soon,
Would for man be a wonderful boon,
As how seismic waves shake,
The crust with earthquake,
From effects of the sun and the moon.
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That quake seemed to last longer than usual ones – I started to get motion sickness.
Sympathies to all Cantabz, you’re copping it alright.
It has to be something to do with the supermoon, there have been big ones in Argentina and the Philippines too.
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Has anyone used a Petro-Sonde device for measuring telluric currents? Apparently this small device can read all the different electrical frequencies in the crust. There tend to be different frequencies at different depths and by “unstacking” the mixture of frequencies the operator can determine aspects of the geology.
The currents elevate during times of high solar wind impacting Earth’s magnetosphere such as this past week-end.
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Has anyone attempted to calculate how much simple electrical heating is caused by these “telluric currents”? Just another of the massive heap of heat sources that are “too small to be significant”, like each coin in a full piggy bank is too small on its own.
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Ooops just burnt my eyes looking into the moon.
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[This comment has been removed at the request of the contributor] Fly
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John the measurement of telluric current is the basis for a commonly used mode of low impact geophysical exploration. Telluric currents can be of large magnitude and are strongly influenced by solar activity and electrical storms.
There is a correlation between significant telluric current variations and earthquakes. Whether these current variations actually contribute to rock fracturing has been the subject of speculation.
Some interesting comments in this article:
SOLAR ACTIVITY LINKED TO HIGH-MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES (from page 6)
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I suspect that not many folks even the very switched on denizens here on Jo’s blog know a couple of these small items of interest.
From ; http://pordlabs.ucsd.edu/ltalley/sio210/Equatorial_circulation/
So Pacific Equatorial Ocean sea levels are roughly, depending on the phases of El Nino or La Nina which create quite significant changes in Equatorial Pacific sea levels , about half a metre higher in the Western Pacific around the Maritime continent than in the Eastern Pacific near the South American continent.
It seems that from various early Spanish sources that the Spanish who first landed and then colonised the Phillipines and western Pacific islands in 1565, were aware of the Pacific Ocean’s down slope from west to east and even seem to have taken advantage of it to achieve claimed faster passages across the Pacific to the Spanish colonies in the western America’s.
[ Don’t ask me for sources or where I read this a few years ago but it intrigued me at the time as we so often in our modern arrogance and hubris so frequently and badly underrate the skills and knowledge of the peoples from those past historical times. ]
——————–
And Earth Tides per Wiki;
And just how complicated it all gets when measuring something like Earth tides created by the highly varying lunar and even solar gravitational influences, the weight of the ocean waters from high or low tides can neuter or re-inforce the range of movement in the Earth Tides.
—————-
And if you really want to know just how much a very strong gravitation field can affect a planet then the giant planet Jupiter and its moons provide a very good example with immense Volcanic activity and possibly subsurface below the surface ice of oceans of water all as a direct effect of the constant tidal forces being exerted on Jupiter’s Moons from Jupiter’s immense gravitational field strength..
The Galilean Moons of Jupiter
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Again off topic but as there are some very smart denizens here who are always questing for and open to new knowledge and in line with my comments on the Pacific Ocean and the links to the Spanish colonies in the above post, the history of the Spanish Galleon routes across the Pacific to and from the Spanish Colonies in the western Americas might be something that very few of our readers and lurkers have much knowledge of.
So for those interested in history and the Pacific colonisation by European powers i.e. the Portuguese and the Spanish .
The arrival of the Spanish galleons in Manila from the Pacific Ocean and their departure along the Kuroshio stream (16th and 17th centuries)
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If earthquakes are a sudden release of gradually accumulated pressures resulting from continental drift, it might be useful to measure the time since the last quake in that region. These high gravity & solar magnetic windows could then be given a general risk probability by emergency authorities. Purchasing the Weatheraction forecaste might be a sensible starting point.
Perhaps they already know this and do not want to dis-stress the plebs. Prior to that big L’Aquila quake in 2009 a vocal local geologist was threatened by a judge for “crying wolf” about a big earthquake that he reckoned was about to strike the region. Hopefully, that judge lived in a big stone house that suffered some damage. I have empathy for those who are passionate about a career or topic who are slammed-down by the ignorant and influential.
After that quake the sheeple tried to sue other geologists for failing to predict the disaster. You can’t win!
(Please delete my duplicate post at #14. Our sporadic internet often takes 5 mins for a comment to send. I clicked it a 2nd time as it appeared to have not worked.)
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People are scared to credit the Sun with playing a part in the causation of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in case it results in awkward questions. Such as ‘So this Sun thing can, like, er cause earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, and stuff, so…er..um…could it sorta have…er..anything to do with….um..climate, then?’
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No, we are not so much scared as sceptical. If the sun causes earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, then we need to understand the causal mechanisms.
I will state my position, which is that the sun is a point source of gravity, and electromagnetic radiation, within our solar system, which must ipso facto, affect the whole earth, equally.
Now it is your turn. You need to show how my generalised position is false, or incomplete.
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Imagine geologists and volcanologists throwing down their tools the next time some grabbermint agency
asksdemands a forecast of likelihood and impacts because of possible legal action. It’s not like BoM or the UK MET office got sued after every failed prognostication of red hot summer or mild winter.Just look at the agent, shake your head and go home.
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abstract from one of several papers on this topic from scared people
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The large full moon is God’s way of taking pity on the crybabies protesting the Presidential election results. Now they have sufficient light to find their way back to their parent’s home at night.
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Time to get a few moon shots tonight, if the weather clears.
The question beggars: will some CAGW ratbag make a connection of some new perceived danger of a trilogy between a Supermoon,CAGW,and President Elect Trump?
I’ll bet that there are nuts(disillusioned Hillary voters) somewhere out there trying to join such dots together….The SuperLuna effect!
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When something has to give it will give. The forces involved with this dort of event are monumentally larger than any gravitational pull from the moon. GNS have stated that one of their GPS stations moved 2 metres north last night. The good news is that that energy has been released instead of it continuing to build up.
For the second tome New Zealand is actually quite fortunate for the following reasons:
1) The major shake occured at night whilsy people wrre largely not on the roads in the town centres etc
2) After the Napier quakes abou a century ago some strict building codes were adopted across the country ensuring most homes were at least wooden framed and able to flex instead of crumble.
We don’t seem to recognise the people who instigated thesr precautionary measures for some reason – even though their work must have saved thousands of lives. Oh well at least theres the kardashians… :/
Having said that the trauma from this one seems to be vety severe. My contacts are talking about a 45 minute shake. That is really something else.
For the record I understand he south island fault has shifted 6metres at a time
(Might be wrong here).
Even then this one is small fry compared to the volcanic activity up north (lake taupo is one of the worlds 7 super volcanoes and has been known to screwup the weather in greece and china on occasion)
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And a lovely place to have a holiday, water skiing on the crater lake, of an active volcano.
But let’s not be to coy about this. The whole of New Zealand is volcanic. There is a chain of volcanos that stretch from southern Westland in the bottom of the South Island, up to White Island, off the coast, near Auckland, towards the top of the North Island. Some of the caldera are dormant, and others, like White Island are highly active.
Water in New Zealand mountain lakes is surprisingly warm. That is because it is heated from below.
Forget plate tectonics as being the driver. In New Zealand, they are a given. But this current swarm of earthquakes and eruptions are really about magma becoming superheated, and forcing its way into cavities closer to the surface.
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Auckland itself is built over, on, around and beside volcanoes. It’s not known as The City of Volcanoes for nothing.
It’s most scenic hill is Rangitoto island, formed by the last volcanic eruption in and around the Auckland isthmus around the late 1300s. The link shows a photo of Rangitoto taken from the summit of One Tree Hill, itself a volcanic cone. (The photo in this link is looking north from the south side of One Tree Hill’s crater. The peak of Rangitoto can be seen in the background.)
We’re probably overdue for another eruption. Every time the ring of seismometers chimes, there’s a mad flap until the cause is determined. It’s quite entertaining. 🙂
About the only places in NZ without a volcano are Dunedin and Wellington. I’m not sure about Wellington. All that hot air coming from there can’t be just Parliament.
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So, if the doGs suddenly zapped the mass of the Moon away into some hyperspatial crack of doom, black handbag or space between AndyG55’s ears equivalent……..
How long would we continue to have tides for??
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A bit of a rhetorical question, but I will bite.
The tides would stop immediately, assuming you ignore the speed of light.
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There was a full moon on 26th December 2004 – the great Sumatran earthquake which caused the Indian Ocean tsunami. I always thought it might have been the straw which broke the camel’s back on that occasion.
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Cloudy here tonight, but managed to get a glimpse between the clouds
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It was clear for a while here so looked for a while. Very bright outside later so cloud must have been reasonably thin.
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There is no evidence that a ‘super’ moon caused earthquakes. A more rational explanation as you maybe already be aware is we are entering an Ice Age transition a single cosmic event with many effects. It’s time to wake-up. Let’s look at the evidence again, shall we?
1) The solar atmosphere is getting weaker.
2) The sunspot cycles are diminishing.
3) The solar wind pressure is diminishing.
4) The coronal holes are getting bigger.
5) Solar cosmic ray flux is increasing.
6) Cloudiness is increasing.
7) The Earth is getting colder.
8) Droughts are increasing.
9) The northern magnetic pole deflection is diminishing.
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On ABC news tonight, 2016 hottest year on record! Certainly not here in Goulburn, NSW
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Bartender UK.
“7) The Earth is getting colder.”
I beg to differ.
—-
Both of you need to specify a time frame for these declarations to mean something. I’ll do it for Bartender – the Earth has been cooling for 5000 years. – Jo
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Some interesting new information about the moon. The rest of the article can be found in the link
“New model explains the moon’s weird orbit
“Simulations suggest a dramatic history for the Earth-moon duo
“Date:
November 1, 2016
“Source:
University of Maryland
“Summary:
The moon, Earth’s closest neighbor, is among the strangest planetary bodies in the solar system. Its orbit lies unusually far away from Earth, with a surprisingly large orbital tilt. Planetary scientists have struggled to piece together a scenario that accounts for these and other related characteristics of the Earth-moon system. A new research paper, based on numerical models of the moon’s explosive formation and the evolution of the Earth-moon system, comes closer to tying up all the loose ends than any other previous explanation. ”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/11/161101102656.htm
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Also see why modern global warming perceptions are nothing more than El Niño effects at http://notrickszone.com/2016/11/14/since-1982-temperature-records-show-no-warming-other-than-that-due-to-natural-el-nino-warmth-inducing-events/
As the sun goes quiet the cooling will start with La Nina will be the rule rather than the exception in the Pacific.
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Well, at least they say. “Simulations suggest”, rather than “Computer models show”.
We are moving back towards rationality, folks
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What do folks make of the strange lights seen above the earthquake zone , ( plasma of some kind ??? ) as seen in this video posted on Drudge ;https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/dmvidpics-2016-11-14-at-08-53-04.png
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I’m just guessing here, but, judging from the response from my electricity supplier, that glow is the clowns who run the “utility” , lighting up reefers at their barby.
Genesis energy told their customers not to report faults.
No restoration times were available.
How would they know where to come to replace the transformer fuse?
Far Canal.
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Not sure why that was inappropriate. The expletive?
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doubtingdave
Evidently. In fact, 99.99% of the universe is plasma. Unfortunately plasma or the Southern Lights in your neck of the woods are not very predictable. They don’t run on a schedule. In fact, they tend to occur with only 30 minutes notice! So, in truth the dude should count himself very lucky to have captured this on video.
http://www.backpackerguide.nz/best-times-locations-see-southern-lights-new-zealand/
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http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/
Earthquake predictions from these guys is pretty good.
Effect of magnetic and solar particle ejection from CMEs and filaments could play significant part in geo-physical events.
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Re. Photographing the Moon:
The Moon, being the “colour” that it is, is effectively what us old-school, “analogue” photographers called a “grey card”.
Thus, it is APPROXIMATELY 50% reflective.
All of the “pretty” colourations appear to be due to the “white” sunlight being bounced off the big, orbiting, “grey card” and then filtering through an atmosphere laden with water vapour and dust, in varying quantities and refractive / reflective characteristics.
When the Moon is “low” on the horizon as it “rises”, the reflected light has to hack through a greater distance of atmosphere to reach the observer’s eye. The atmosphere, being “curved”, (as opposed to “bent”), applies a certain amount of refraction, which is why a “rising” Moon appears slightly “bigger” than when directly above, despite actually being much the same linear distance away.
Well, that’s as near as this old sound-guy can work it out.
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“We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress”
High tidal stress happens twice a month – new moon and full moon.
10
While true, if observations show nothing happening twice a month (or perhaps a weak correlation) then that simply means that the possible susceptible regions in the earth’s crust are ok with that level of flux of tidal forces. It doesn’t mean that the tidal changes throughout the month are not possible contributors to earthquakes once the crust weak point becomes more susceptible due to other changes.
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My point was the conditions the researchers talk about happens roughly twice a month – no need to wait until a “supermoon” event. Ie there is nothing special about a supermoon in relation to earthquakes. The moon also has it’s closest approach to earth once a month – it is called a perigee.
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As a matter of interest, according to my calculations:
Luna closest approach to Earth: 356530.66 km on 14 Nov 2016 11:33:27, JD 2457706.9815740474
(centre to centre distance)
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