Plan for Ghost Town has been delayed
Yesterday Perth had it’s coldest ever February day (since 1910) with temperatures only making it up to 17.4C. This is not just 0.1 or 0.2C below the previous coldest record in February, but a whole 1.7C colder. Perth also got its second wettest February Day (of any season) with a 106mm of rain.
This is peak summer. So much for Tim Flannery’s Ghost Town prophesy.
(To put a fine point on just how far from normal this is, the actual coldest observation in February before this was in 1991 at 19.8C, but that was adjusted down by 0.7C in the All-Wondrous-ACORN data set. So yesterday was a “sigma-lot” below normal). I’ll post soon on how this is not just a one-day thing, but part of a longer curious record for the region.
Another bazillion gigatons of coal emissions since 1991…
POST NOTE: It’s sweltering on the east coast, and still cold and now flooding on the west. The tables below were updated — today was yet another “top ten” coldest ever day in Perth.
How long before the “hot-n- cold” floods-in-summer thing is blamed on air conditioners? – Jo
________________________________________________
Perth cold records smashed
Guest Post Chris Gillham
As predicted, a new cold record has been set in Perth.
Just 10 days after Perth Metro had its 4th coldest January maximum since 1897 and Perth Airport its coldest January day since opening in 1945, the February daily record has been smashed at both stations.
Perth’s forecast was 20C. Perth Metro today had a maximum of 17.4C and Perth Airport 17.1C. That’s absurdly cold and won’t be repeated in our lifetimes.
…
Courier Mail headlines yesterday were ‘Hell on Earth’ Heat Coming Our Way and the headlines today have been about South Australia’s latest mass blackouts because the windmills couldn’t supply enough power when everybody turned their air-conditioners on in 42.4C heat. What will happen if Adelaide ever matches its record 46.1C set in 1939? (I note that on Monday Kent Town, Adelaide, had its equal 5th coldest February day since the station opened in 1977).
Here in Perth, the most likely cause of a mass blackout is everybody turning their heaters on in the middle of February, but nothing to worry about because coal and natural gas keep it humming along. I’ve had a jumper on since getting out of bed.The media will have to mention Perth’s coldest February day on record but it’ll be quickly forgotten and I doubt any media will reference the coldest January and February max happening within 10 days of each other while the planet supposedly melts because of global warming. This after the coldest winter since 1990 and the coldest September on record for southern WA. Since the media has been in fits about the eastern states heatwave (you call that a heatwave?), it’s probably worth somebody blogging about what’s happening in the west – if only to point out what the media doesn’t point out.
Scanning Pilbara and Kimberley weather stations, the hottest it got anywhere today was just over 30C. Learmonth in the Pilbara had a max of 22.9C, compared to the previous February record of 23.8C. Only the eastern interior warmed up and the best effort was Giles at 38.4C.
Records breaking all over WA
Esperance had a max of 15.2C, wiping out the previous February record of 16.8C in 1963. Bickley got to 13.7C, compared to the previous record coldest max of 18.0C in 2006. Rottnest Island got to 17.2C, the previous coldest February day being 18.7C in 1991. The max today in Gingin was 16.2C, compared to the previous February record of 22.3C in 2006. Cunderdin today was 16.4C, compared to a previous record of 17.8C in 1981, while Dalwallinu’s max today was 17.5C, compared to a prior record February max of 19.5C in 2008.
I wouldn’t be surprised if today was the coldest February daily max ever recorded throughout WA. Otherwise, Perth’s forecast for the coming week has warmed a bit and the first 16 days of February are expected to have a mean temp 1.6C below the total month’s long-term average.
Trewin mentioned in his 2016 summary that WA’s south was one of only a handful of land areas in the world where 2016 temperatures were slightly below average.
This is the 10th month in a row with below average temperatures in WA’s south and the only plausible explanation for the chill is SST. However, the only reference Trewin makes is that sea surface temperatures in the Australian region were the warmest on record during 2016. Since mid 2016 the Indian and Southern ocean SST in the Australian region hasn’t been this cold for such a prolonged period in decades. The BoM’s SST data for the south-west of Australia is at odds with the maps produced by NOAA. The BoM doesn’t concede any month of 2016 had SST below average in south-west waters, but does concede that January 2017 SST was -0.14C below average.
The BoM says the south of WA had its coldest winter since 1990 and the coldest September min on record (coldest mean also, but they don’t say so). September SST off the south-west was +0.08C, according to BoM data. How do you get repeated hits of the coldest weather since 1897 when the surrounding seas are warmer than average? Both NOAA and the record-breaking south-west cold weather over the past six months have been suggesting that the BoM’s SST anomaly baseline, algorithm and/or buoys aren’t a true reflection of historic averages.
…
Brrrr … can anybody lend us some global warming?
Cheers!
Chris
Perth has a realllllllly big ocean next to it, right? Well thats where all the heat is hiding….
MWUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!
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No, no, no! Don’t worry about your missing heat! It isn’t lost. It’s at Penrith, NSW. Staying for two more days, they tell us.
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Oh and cant resist this – Australias’ first world credentials on display – I heard via a variety of sources that the NSW govt buildings have all agreed today to set thermostats at 25-26C to stop the grid overloading as its supposed to be a 41C day….
So much for our first world power grid, huh….?
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Would this be the Julia Gillard gold plated network?
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No…its a non-core network…..
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Be careful what you suck out of a grid that sucks.
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Yep I heard it all on 2gb.
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Watch the data. If it works it could be worth a compliment.
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Well – at least it is better than Venezuela. 😉
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Not to be forgotten is that these new Cold records are after previous cold records from the 20th Century were made even colder by data manipulation by the likes of BOM, NOAA and CRU to reduce them and make current temperatures appear warmer.
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I suspect that ‘coldest ever’ records (both summer and winter) will begin to be smashed at regular intervals over the next few years in Australia and the world.
Just listen to the ensuing silence from the BOM, CSIRO, MSM, Greens etc.
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Ice skating on the yarra river?
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Icebergs floating up the Swan?
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Maybe a frozen shag on a rock?
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You had your youth in Scotland too, Yonnie?
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Nah just a little joke for the Sandgropers. 🙂
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‘Yesterday Perth had it’s coldest ever February day (since 1910) ….’
That was during the centenary Gleissberg. Coincidence? I think not.
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Good post Chris. Ten out of 10 for all your meticulous hard work!
However, be careful what you wish for!
Cheers,
Bill
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Gasping at straws…or grasping at straws? They just wont admit its broken…..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-10/gas-and-solar-mix-a-possibility-for-sa/8259768
“South Australia could reduce its reliance on the National Electricity Market (NEM) through major infrastructure investment, according to a policy expert, as it looks to overcome a privatised market that has proved unreliable.”
Yes apparently its all that nasty private power, the answer to govt stupidity is always more stupidity…..private electrons bad, govt electrons good…
*sigh*
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Original Steve,
O/T I know, but I will add. Pls excuse, sorry to cross the theme Chris.
Part of the electricity supply problem is fuzzy not focussed. It is not a battle as people think, between free enterprise and government ownership. People get a lot of propaganda that makes them think corporations are evil.
The fundamental problem is that free enterprise in Australia has not been free over the last 30 years. It has been called free enterprise despite having a huge regulatory hurden placed on it by bureaucrats.
Heck, why blame the private corporation for not turning on its gas plant when a government regulatory body forgot to tell them to turn it on? That is not free enterprise unfettered, for then it would be ready anytime there was an honest quid to be made efficiently and routinely.
When I was in mining, we owned and operated the electricity powerplant for the whole of the Pilbara, with its big iron ore mines needing reliable 24/7. The big interruption was when unions shut it down, because one Sunday a switch that tripped was reset by our engineer (staff). Only union people were allowed to reset it, they said. Culminated in us sacking 1,200 workers, free to come back with no unions at all involved. They did, profits jumped, safety record improved, what was not to like? There is a book “The Power Switch at Robe River” author lawyer Patrick Gethin.
Unfettered free enterprise works a charm, but these days is seldom seen. Now we have the SA Premier muttering about taking State govt ownership of all its power supply.
Dreamin’ . 180 degrees off course and sailing into the eye of the hurricane. No memory of past history, no learning from clear past outcomes. Purely ideological. Like rabid union madness.
Geoff
(Feeling better now).
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Geoff,
Not living there I have no reasonable way to say yes or no to what you say. But I’m well familiar with what regulation does to a market and what you say makes very good sense. Why blame the supplier when what he can do is governed by some unelected bureaucrats in some office no one sees or even knows about? Yet that is surely what those bureaucrats want you to do, blame the supplier to keep you off their backs and your attention elsewhere than where your problem really lies.
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But I have one complaint with my local suppliers, particularly Edison — I don’t see them putting up a fight for their customers. As long as they can operate profitably they will be content with a man made shortage of generating capacity and smile all the way to the bank while their customers get to “enjoy” being shut off for an hour or more just when they need that power the most, when it’s 100 degrees (38° C) in the shade and there’s no shade.
And the California Public Utilities Commission will always assure them of a profit. The customer, the electricity consumer is always left sucking the hind teat as the saying goes.
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It’s a nice racket. I wish I could run a business that a public agency, an arm of government would always make sure could operate at a profit.
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Geoff even though people dislike (including me) left leaning intrusions in their lives Australia did adopt communist type practices through governmental policy, electricity, natural gas infrastructure were/still are owned by the states and its citizens which once provided cheap reliable base load power stimulating positive capital growth, as you noted its when that balance of cost vs product isn’t kept in check by the owners profit is reduced towards loss.
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Up here in my part of the NSW mid-north coast the hottest summers look to have been those of 1913-14, 1914-15 and 1918-19. Coolest was likely 1927-28. All of which would indicate…zilch! Because climate changes, duh.
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Hi Jo… I think you’ll find it was the second wettest day for any time of the year (not just February). It just happens that the other wetter day was also in February:
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/perth-on-track-for-wettest-day-ever-recorded-20170209-gu9tx8.html
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The nice weatherman on TV (extinct species) used to be able to explain what happened without bringing “climate change” into the discussion.
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Wow. That’s quite an adjustment. With that trend in adjustments it will have been snowing in 1991 in a few years time.
For another data point Cairns is enjoying hot, wet conditions at the moment. Pretty much what you’d expect for February. No sign of any cyclones yet. The experts told us to expect 7 if I recall correctly.
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Forrest Gardner.
I wouldn’t worry about it. The AWAP data set and the ACORN data set cannot be compared on a day by day basis. The ACORN data set is a reference data set, not a weather observations data set like AWAP.
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Harry, I’m confident that people were capable of reading thermometers in 1991. Alternatively I’m confident that any automated temperature measuring equipment was reliable by that time.
Even if that is not so in my book you have to point to an ACTUAL systematic or random error of some kind to change a temperature reading by 0.7 degrees. And even then the proper response to an actual error is to discard the reading, not to change it to something which fits some theory or other.
If you disagree, then please tell me what the 19.8C recorded in 1991 will be next year!
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As an aside I love the thumbs up/down thing. On the one hand you can see whether your ideas are supported and on the other hand the amount of flak shows when you are over the target.
Click away funsters!
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The red ones are the “Tens Column”
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Forest Gardner.
You have no idea what ACORN-SAT is, do you? It is NOT a data set of direct measurements. It’s not too late, go read about it on the BOM website.
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Harry, I am seeking to understand – From their web page (my emphasis):
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/
“The Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) dataset has been developed to monitor climate variability and change in Australia.
The dataset employs the latest analysis techniques and takes advantage of digitised observational data to provide a daily record of Australian temperatures over the last 100 years.
The data is robust and comparable through time, which will enable climate researchers to better understand long-term changes in monthly and seasonal climate, as well as changes in day-to-day weather, such as the frequency of heat and cold extremes.”
So this dataset is the end result of temps taken, massaged, averaged, whatever, and then entered – and altered as needed?
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Mari C.
“…provide a daily record of Australian temperatures…”
You make a good point, technically calling it a “daily” record is not strictly correct. You could email the BOM about and see what they think. They may or may not care about semantics.
It is not really a “daily” record because it is not a real measurement, it is DERIVED from real measurements, sure, but it is not really a measurement (more an estimate of the temperature at that location).
The point I was making with my comment is if you want to see the thermometer temperature for a given day at a given station, use AWAP not ACORN. If you want to see the change in the temperature trend over time, use ACORN. That Perth Metro location is a good example, no one station was used to produce the 1910-present series as no one station in that location has existed for that length of time. The ACORN station they use is Perth Airport, not Perth Metro, and uses 3 series from different stations stitched together to get a long record.
“and altered as needed?”
The “estimate” is adjusted when required, yes. The reasons for the ACORN adjustment are explained on the BOM website.
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Harry, why would anybody need to “estimate” the temperature when it is already known?
Think hard before answering. You are already on a slippery slope contradicting the BOM’s own words.
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Harry, as you have claimed knowledge of things I do and do not have ideas about, I have just one new question for you and repeat the one above:
1. What was the actual minimum temperature in 1991; and
2. What will the 19.8C recorded in 1991 be next year!
Oh, and thanks so much for your gratuitous suggestion about what I might care to look up. As you have been so kind I’ll return the favour. Go forth and multiply. As you say it’s not too late!
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Forrest Gardner.
“1. What was the actual minimum temperature in 1991; and
2. What will the 19.8C recorded in 1991 be next year!”
Which station do you want your question answered for? “Perth” is a rather large area, so you have to be specific if you want a specific answer.
15
Harry, they are Jo’s figures not mine, but as you don’t know which station, why not ask her rather than continuing in ignorance.
My comment was to the effect that the adjustment was large and that if the trend of adjustments continued it would have been snowing in 1991 in a few years time.
Try not to defend the indefensible. A measurement was taken. Somebody fiddled with it.
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Harry, as you have claimed knowledge of things I do and do not have ideas about, I have just one new question for you and repeat the one above:
1. What was the actual minimum temperature in 1991; and
2. What will the 19.8C recorded in 1991 be next year!
Oh, and thanks so much for your gratuitous suggestion about what I might care to look up. As you have been so kind I’ll return the favour. Go forth and multiply. As you say it’s not too late!
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Forrest Gardner.
“Oh, and thanks so much for your gratuitous suggestion about what I might care to look up. As you have been so kind I’ll return the favour. Go forth and multiply. As you say it’s not too late!”
I was making the point that you should understand something before you criticize it. Otherwise you might end up looking foolish.
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Harry, you amply demonstrated your point in your own case because you have no idea of my state of knowledge.
As you say, learn something about the subject before you criticise it. Do you want to embarrass yourself further? If so, just delete your account.
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Record snow in parts of the US, up to 25feet in places, reports iceagenow.
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That is just because the land is sinking. (yes, sarc).
40
Just following up on the cyclone issue, here’s to BOM outlook from 10 October 2016. I reckon that each year’s funding and salary should depend on the accuracy of the previous year’s forecasts.
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Nina didn’t spark up and its patently obvious that BoM can’t predict ENSO behaviour.
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Amazing climate differences
TAS SNOW
WA COLD
QLD HOT
NSW Heat
SA Black
But energy supply underpins every state!
Seem like security is out the window.
If any experts in Tasmanian Hydro & dam levels can comment.
Seems the Greedy Greens are making a killing on HYDRO!
But it appears the levels are falling rapidly in the big storage areas
And anyone see SHY as head of the energy enquiry today?
She was demanding “Who was responsible for not turning on the gas turbine at Pelican?”
27 minutes without power, and SHY’s Latte was cold!
Why is she in charge of this! A joke!
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Don’t worry Dave victoriastan can send extra electrons over via the extension cord , we also have heaps for our poor cousins in south Australia.
Not so sure when Hazelwood closes though .
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no, thats-
SA Unknown – communications down
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Those would be weather differences wouldn’t they Dave?
As you your question about Sarah Sea-Patrol, it’s either a devilishly clever move by somebody far cleverer than me, or it defies logic. She seems to have no capacity for rational thought whatsoever.
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Send some of that cold over to the east coast please guys !!
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No! You haven’t paid your taxes!
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regional ABC manage a mention, but the emphasis, starting with the headline, is on “wild”:
10 Feb: ABC: Locals and animals take shelter as wet and wild weather continues across regional WA
ABC Esperance By Sam Tomlin and Stan Shaw
As Perth continues to clean up from its coldest winter day on record, the cold front has brought heavy rain to communities from the South West to Esperance…
Bureau of Meteorology Esperance station manager Cliff Spencer said the wild weather had broken all records for February rainfall, with 91mm falling since the start of February.
“The previous record was set in 1970 at 80mm,” he said.
“The other record we broke was for February’s coldest day; we only got up to 17.5C for the daily maximum on Tuesday.”…READ ALL
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-10/record-rains-flooding-towns-across-regional-western-australia/8259630
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If you look at the temp data for the BOM Perth Metro site at Mt Lawley, the recognised Perth BOM site for temp releases to the MSM, then you will see that in the past 11 months, just one month (Nov 2016) recorded an above average max temp. So this is not a one off – Perth has been in a “cooling mode” for nearly a year now. And you can bet BOM won’t be making this headline news. Also note that the Indian Ocean temps off WA have been below average for some time now – just check the Weatherbell Global Temp Map data (based on reliable Satellite data). This is the 2nd cyclone/low pressure system that has moved down the west coast of WA since late January – neither system did what they normally do, ie turn east and cross the NW coast. So why? Well the NW landmass in the past few months has been a lot cooler than average – I just wonder if this is a factor.
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Southern Ocean around the “pork chop” has been cooler than normal. For months.
Time to wax the Drizabone.
40
OT but I’ve come to the conclusion why fight them , the greens labs and Libs can have my vote on the following basis .
Power is to get cheaper not more expensive .
Any power outage caused by renewable energy will incur a $10’000.00 fine per event , not to be paid by taxpayer money but by the personal assets of what ever party was in favour of said clean green electricity scheme . This includes personnel assets of the politicians and registered party members .
Tax payer funds only allowed for systems that can guarantee 24/7 electricity production and base load generation .
Battery storage cost is to come from profits of the electricity providers and not to be passed onto consumers .
This only covers energy production but I don’t think any politician would agree to this because it makes them clearly accountable and personally accountable for decisions they make and it’s about time they were all made accountable for stupid decisions they make .
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Sorry meant to say ten grand per affected customer.
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Oh!! Timmy where are you when your prophesies get blown out of the universe. Perhaps doing the flim flop flannery in somewhere called alarmerville.
Please come and tell us what is going to happen next year. Then we will know just exactly what to not expect.
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Part of Tim’s quote from ten years ago:
SA did act “now” and it’s in perilous trouble!
I took a photo of yesterday’s BOM page at lunch time: Perth 15.5C, Adelaide 38.0C. It was hard to fathom!
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The weather variations are due to Tony Abbot and Donald Trump.
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south west Vic has now had two very cold summers and lower sunlight. Plants in hothouses are weeks behind and decreased flavour due to low sunlight. It seems quite logical to me that the cold antartic air swirl is overcoming the heat pressure in the inland oz air keeping the boundary further north than previously. that is the increase in cold air volume is buffering the high warm air pressure. In my books this is more like global cooling than anything else.
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Good anecdotal evidence that cooling has begun in the Southern Hemisphere.
During the global warming of late last century the subtropical ridge was intensifying, but now the STR has collapsed, drawing down low pressure troughs.
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I guess however that there is just so much thermal energy in planet earth at any given time. Is it so surprising that like wealth, it is not perfectly evenly distributed.
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Today seems a good time to post this.
My great Grandfather, John McConnell Black, was the author of “The Flora of South Australia”, and he kept diaries throughout his life detailing all sorts of interesting things, not the least of which were the occasional temperature readings.
From Volume 3 of the diaries….
Tuesday 10th Jan 1939
Today all records for Adelaide were beaten at Observatory, Adelaide – 116.9F at 3:15 pm, breaking the previous record of 116.3F on Jan 26 1858. Kyancutta, S.A. reached 120.7 today, Port Augusta 117. Have watered a lot, but the coprosoma hedge looks withering, a thing I have never seen before.
Thursday 12 January 1939
Tuesday’s record of 116.9 broken! =117.7F today (Adelaide Observatory). Thermom. is 97F outside (9:30pm)
I am sure anyone here can do their own conversions.
Cheers
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The name Kyancutta has fascinated me since I was eight years old. It’s on my list of “must visit” places. Got close a few years ago when I reached Iron Knob – now there’s an antithesis to tourism for you, like right out of a Russ Meyer film!
20
Unless you are a ‘climate scientist’ the above is why any direct readings by anyone else can be, and often is, ignored (and often ridiculed). Measurement conditions are important and the reason so many of the old readings have been changed.
Of course, the ‘climate scientists’ also claim that their ‘adjustments/corrections/homogenisations are accurate, even though Anthony Watts’ crowd-sourced project showed that Stevenson screens are also fraught with errors due to coatings, position, UHI, etc. Auto-recording devices are also often poorly positioned due to allowable cable lengths so more adjustments are required.
It makes one wonder if it is possible for anyone to make any reading that will stand on its own, no adjustments required.
21
North Walpole had lowest maximum on record, 16C 9C below average. Only about ten years of records though.
30
TedM , that’s more than good enough time wise to establish a record but unfortunately it’s not hotter it’s cooler so it won’t count for BOM .
33
For February that is.
30
A little power outage due to storms, a little flooding that keeping cars off the road. And boom, a large portion of Urban Heat Island factors temporary removed from thermometer readings. IN THE aftermath we get similar measurement to Hundred of years ago before cars, central heating, bitcoin mining and Frequent flyer points.
So what keeps you warm at night.
51
“Australia has been suffering with a series of heat waves this summer, with Sydney in particular being hit hard after its hottest January on record.
Climate scientist Dr. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre in Sydney described the developing heat wave as “horrifying” and said people should not work or play outdoors.
“Much of eastern Australia has seen heat wave after heat wave this summer, with some seasonal records already broken by the start of February.
Nighttime temperatures have been too hot for adequate sleep and daytime temperatures have been searing,” she said.”
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/02/09/australia-treasurer-takes-lump-coal-parliament-country-braces-more-crippling-heatwaves
. . .
Unfortunately, how coal creates Doomsday Global Warming only on the east coast of Australia whilst simultaneously creating inconvenient record cold on the west is never explained by the good doctor (for a doctor she is).
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““Much of eastern Australia has seen heat wave after heat wave this summer, with some seasonal records already broken by the start of February. ”
Hey ??? It hasn’t been that warm.
Or have historic records been adjusted 😉
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Mark M.
“Unfortunately, how coal creates Doomsday Global Warming only on the east coast of Australia whilst simultaneously creating inconvenient record cold on the west is never explained by the good doctor (for a doctor she is).”
Why don’t you ask her? I know the answer, but why not ask a climate scientist, her answer will be much better than mine.
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@ Harry Twinotter,
“Climate scientist” Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick has such a strong belief system that she even claims expertise along with four other academics, including the media-popular Profs Karoly and Hoegh-Guldberg, that CO2 driven ‘global warming’ made Great Barrier Reef mass coral bleaching 175 times more likely in 2016, with no importance attached to the “Super El Nino” (Super as described by another famous expert activist; Kevin Trenberth).
They’re a funny lot. For instance, Karoly is also an expert in the biology of a butterfly that is doomed he says by CO2, and ……… Oh that will do, click link for more:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/02/03/university-culture-and-climate-change/
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Bob Fernley-Jones.
You are brave posting a reference to a known Conspiracy Theory blog to back up your claim (whatever the claim is that you are making).
But by all means post a reference to your publications in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that are relevant to your authority in this area.
27
@ Harry Twinotter,
Thanks for more entertainment and smiles. I fully expected that you would not deign to read anything at WUWT. The link was intended for the benefit of rational readers who visit this site (who greatly outnumber you).
Many readers are interested in such things as presentation of peer reviewed papers and other facts at WUWT that are not available at your favourite sites such as the appropriately named HotWhopper.
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Bob Fernley-Jones.
Correct, I do not bother to read stuff at WUWT. It is a Conspiracy Theory blog, Anthony Watts is a vile individual, and he is dishonest.
Ummm yes, Jo Nova is a Conspiracy Theory blog as well so it’s readers will be biased that way. Of course they will outnumber me.
Peer-reviewed papers on climate are fine. Most are boring, but occasionally there is an interesting one. WUWT usually misrepresents peer-reviewed papers.
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That’s good Harry. Let us know how you psychically assess what WUWT posts without actually ever reading the site.
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Really weird unattached stuff harri.
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Yea, every site you do not like is a conspiracy site. Everyone you do not like is vile and dishonest. The entire world must be wrong because it does not conform to your delusions.
The psychosis with this one is strong.
33
I doubt you have ever read or understood a peer-review paper in your whole life, Twotter.
Apart from your incessant, juvenile, ADHD possessed, obnoxious rantings, your contribution to rational discourse is that of the toenail clipping.
24
PhilJourdan.
“The psychosis with this one is strong.”
Pot kettle black.
And you, of course, know this because you have surveyed every site I have visited and recorded my response to it. Or the tooth fairy told you…
Enjoy your delusions, I am sure you are happy in them. But just keep in mind, nature bats last.
34
“But just keep in mind, nature bats last.”
and THAT is why you will ALWAYS be a LOSER, twotter.
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No Harry, I do not have to survey any site you have or have not visited. I have only to read your psychosis where you claim that you know the make up of the site and avow you have never visited or read it.
You told all of us about your psychosis. And your juvenile name calling does not go unnoticed. I do not pass judgement on sites I do not visit. I can ignore them once I visit them and find out their flavor. But if I pass judgement, it is based upon reading them. Not psychosis.
You need to remember what you said. Your psychosis is only getting worse.
41
And if nature always bats last, then why are you worrying about what man may or may not be doing? You just admitted that man cannot effect any change as nature has the final say.
I think your psychosis is clouding your ability to reason.
31
more proof the alarmism will not end soon!
9 Feb: LifeSiteNews: EXCLUSIVE Interview: ‘Population Bomb’ author ‘thrilled’ with direction Pope taking the Church
by Pete Baklinski
“I’m thrilled with the new pope moving the Church in the right direction,” Dr. Paul Ehrlich, author of the 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb, told LifeSiteNews in a back-and-forth email exchange this week.
The Stanford biologist has been invited by the Vatican to present a paper at its conference at the end of this month on the topic of “sav[ing] the natural world” from extinction.
Titled Biological Extinction, the conference will address what Vatican organizers call an unsustainable “imbalance” between the world’s population and what the earth is capable of producing. The event is jointly sponsored by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences…
LifeSiteNews asked Ehrlich in what direction he now sees Francis moving the Church.
“More towards concern for environmental issues like ***climate disruption and the Sixth Great Extinction [see here] that threaten the lives of future generations,” he said…
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/exclusive-interview-pro-abort-population-controller-thrilled-with-direction
9 Feb: The Remnant: Vatican Resurrects Pro-Abort Paul Ehrlich
by Elizabeth Yore
The list of population control proponents invited to the Vatican Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences keeps growing. The New World Order is firmly ensconced with global pro-abortion elites like Jeffrey Sachs, Joseph Stiglitz, Naomi Klein, Peter Raven, Hans Schellnhuber, Partha Dasgupta, Ban Ki Moon, and now, the granddaddy of them all, Paul Ehrlich!
The Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy Bishop Sorondo self-righteously defends the Pope’s invitation to Ehrlich by stating that,
“Naturally, someone can say, ‘Oh, look who they have invited to the Vatican,’ but the positive side is that he can help us find the truth in the theme we are discussing,” Ehrlich is one of two people asked to speak about how “consumption preferences, population numbers, technology (and) ecosystem productivity” impact biodiversity.”
Yes, the Holy See invites this modern day leader of population control to the Vatican to share his discredited predictions with the Pontifical Academy of Science. The Vatican believes that Ehrlich can assist them to find the truth! What, pray tell, is the scientific value of inviting a man whose forecasts were roundly refuted as false?…
With no rational or spiritual defense for his Ehrlich invitation, Bishop Sorondo, Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy haughtily dismisses the outrage over the Ehrlich invitation. The Argentine Sorondo scoffs that he is “losing patience with the complaints, “they are afraid of their own shadows. Truly, I just don’t understand them. Through dialogue we are able to obtain much more than they are with their policy of always criticizing others,” he said…
http://remnantnewspaper.com/web/index.php/fetzen-fliegen/item/3028-vatican-resurrects-pro-abort-paul-ehrlich
33
Meanwhile in NSW:
AGL cuts power to aluminium smelter to avoid mass power outages across NSW
18:00 EDT
An aluminium smelter in the New South Wales Hunter Valley has been forced to power down its operations to avoid mass electricity blackouts across the state.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/agl-cuts-power-to-aluminium-smelter-to-avoid-mass-power-outages-across-nsw/525855
30
I assume AGL will reimburse the smelter for lost production.
Why did they shut down Munmorah, can someone remember?
36
If your question wasn’t rhetorical. 45 years old Andy. Uneconomic. Was on standby for its last 2 years . . . then came the carbon tax that finished it off completely. Demolishing a coal station was probably good green PR for the government too – same as in SA.
30
wow…goes perfectly with the Pope/Ehrlich story:
quite scary to watch, but this is the bit that worries me: ***”that now we have to embrace and move forward on”.
VIDEO: 45secs: 9 Feb: ClimateDepot: Marc Morano: Former Obama EPA Chief concedes: ‘Climate change has become a religion’
Conversation with former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy: ‘The challenge I think we have is for some reason climate change has become a religion — a politically induced religion instead of science fact ***that now we have to embrace and move forward on.’
Speaking in California, former Obama EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy admits, “climate change has become a religion — a politically induced religion”…
GINA MCCARTHY: “I don’t know why climate change got to be a religion instead of a simple fact based science exercise but I do know that the actions that California is taking and others will make the difference between whether we stand still or fall back or move forward. […] I do see that states are actually making these investments. The challenge I think we have is for some reason climate change has become a religion — a politically induced religion instead of science fact that now we have to embrace and move forward on.”
Conversation with former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy
California Senate Democrats
February 8, 2017
http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/02/09/former-obama-epa-chief-concedes-climate-change-has-become-a-religion/
43
yes, she is truly crazy:
VIDEO: 30secs: 9 Feb: ClimateDepot: Marc Morano: OOPS! Former Obama EPA Chief denies ‘War on Coal’ next to a ‘Coal Sucks’ poster
Office of Senator DeLeon
Conversation with former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy
California Senate February 8, 2017
COMMENT: this is the same woman who flew home to boston from washington every weekend, spewing more CO2 just in plane rides then average family of 4 burns in 3 years.
http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/02/09/oops-former-obama-epa-chief-denies-war-on-coal-next-to-a-coal-sucks-poster/
62
Tim Flannery is also chairman of Copenhagen Climate Council.
In large part thanks to activists like him, Denmark now has more windmills per capita and the highest prices on energy in the World (beside a few island states).
Keep up the work on bringing the tragedy of the green movement to an end.
50
It’s obvious. It’s Global Warming in action.
10
Bob Tisdale gives us a glimpse of the cool ribbon.
https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/00-global-ssta-map.png?w=640
22
It’s so cool that I’m making Chili for dinner tonight! Expect the Kwinana Freeway to be flooded either later today or tomorrow…….there are flood warnings out for both the Swan and Avon rivers now.
50
I advised my son to emigrate to Perth a decade ago so as to be safe in the new Little Ice Age.
63
A freeze, all over the map,
For a month, is called a ‘cold snap’,
But just watch warmists rave,
On a one day ‘heatwave’,
As they further their climate-change pap.
160
Jo Nova.
“Just 10 days after Perth Metro had its 4th coldest January maximum since 1897 and Perth Airport its coldest January day since opening in 1945, the February daily record has been smashed at both stations.”
So you are worried about a February cold record for just one location? Got any data significant to the climate, like an area average or trend line or something like that?
522
Mr Twittnotter,
I assume you accept the “spot” heat records being spewed out by ABC, BoM and Sydney Morning Hamas for NSW.
204
toorightmate.
“being spewed out by ABC”
You wouldn’t be showing bias, would you? And which do you prefer, 17C or a run of 40C+ days?
If the cold snap in Perth is a genuine cold record, I would say interesting (I will check later). If it is part of a long-term trend for Perth, or an area average I would be fascinated.
The records being broken in southeast Australia ARE part of a long-term trend. Therefore they are relevant to global warming as the Australian area average is also showing a warming trend because of global warming.
519
Station 9034 Perth Regional Office closed in 1992. That is going to complicate things a bit… Station 9225 Perth Metro opened in 1993.
415
Perth Airport (9021) annual trends up to and including 2016:
AWAP shows an upward trend
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=9021&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
ACORN-SAT shows an upward trend of 0.12C per decade
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/hqsites/site_data.cgi?variable=maxT&area=aus&station=009021&dtype=raw&period=annual&ave_yr=T
Berkeley Earth (up to 2013) shows an upward trend of 0.12C per decade adjusted, or 0.105C per decade raw if you prefer raw
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/152097
416
@ Harry Twinotter,
Actually, not exactly? CDO gives that 9034 closed in April 1992 and that 9225, the logical replacing station opened in January 1994. Thus, whilst there was no overlap to cross-calibrate, 9225 is I think arguably the best available extension of the 9034 record for the author to consider.
Even so, what are you scared of? Might the 9034 site if kept open till today have shown even lower maxima since April 1992?
The fragility of station changes etcetera throughout the BoM time-series records is of course a major issue that you are not prepared to admit.
93
Bob Fernley-Jones.
“Even so, what are you scared of? Might the 9034 site if kept open till today have shown even lower maxima since April 1992?”
Ask rhetorical questions all you like.
“you are not prepared to admit.”
Ummm, no. I actually pointed out that the Perth stations do not have long-term records. So what am I not “prepared to admit”?
If you feel that the station records are so bad, then you are saying the article’s claim in the head line “… coldest ever record for February” is nonsense as they cannot really know due to poor records.
37
@ Harry Twinotter,
Actually, Perth RO (9034) has one of the longest records (to 1991) that is only exceeded by a few more remote locations such as at lighthouses. Very many of the ACORN “urban” stations started off at Post Offices or other institutions in the heart of growing towns and were replaced by stations in totally different environments, commonly at airports.
Whilst ACORN did typically switch Perth RO to the Airport, might I suggest that it was probably for logistical reasons, and that Perth Metro (9025) would have been a more sensible replacement for continuity?
74
@ Harry Twinotter
Tired today Harry? Only found enough energy to click the thumbs down?
Thanks for yet more entertainment.
BTW, rational thinkers here probably comprehend that e.g. Perth Metro should be a better environmental continuation for replacing Perth RO, rather than the logistically preferred Airport?
73
@ Harry Twinotter,
I’m saddened to see that there are now three thumbs down. Does that mean that you have three different computers or that maybe you have called-up two supporters?
Whatever, there is only the collective strength to click “don’t like” without explaining why you disagree? Smile.
01
I won’t bother to check “Perth” as there isn’t a long-term record to check. If someone wants to homogenize the series from the different Perth stations and estimate the daily temperature, be my guest – it is hard work. I will stick with Perth Airport (9021).
Perth Airport Jan record low maximum – 19.7C. The previous record was 20.1C on 3/1/2007.
Perth Airport Feb record low maximum – 19.1C. The previous record was 19.8C on 25/1/1991.
So the two records were broken by 0.4C and 0.7C. I would call that a substantial record-break.
The trend for January is very noisy, but it shows an overall upward trend:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=9021&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=01
The trend for February is very noisy, but it shows an overall upward trend:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=9021&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=02
220
The overall upward trend that you refer to does not include the recent record low data. When that is included the overall tend is zero.
113
Peter C.
“When that is included the overall tend is zero.”
Data and calculations, please.
28
Whoops Harry. The discussion is about record temperatures and you want to change the subject to trends.
As the great man once asked, why is it so?
93
Forrest Gardner.
No, actually Peter C changed the subject to trends.
Do try and keep up.
38
‘The records being broken in southeast Australia ARE part of a long-term trend.’
Its a cyclic global cooling trend, the wayward jet stream is a precursor of what is to come.
114
el gordo.
“Its a cyclic global cooling trend, the wayward jet stream is a precursor of what is to come.”
Data, please.
47
UAH data over Australia last 20 years
https://s19.postimg.org/t849zahv7/Australia_20_years.png
12
Can’t make sense of that.Moving along.
123
You hope, anyway…
102
Has there ever been a document, a piece of logic, a definitive statement that CO2 produces both colder weather and hotter weather, more rain and less rain, more wind and presumably less wind?
Extreme events? Who invented this idea, when and how did they justify it?
How does little CO2 have such a dramatic effect on all weather when there is a real struggle to demonstrate any sort of correlation with temperature, let alone rapid, catastrophic, runaway heating? At least CO2 driven Global Warming had a sort of sense to it. CO2 has gone up. We must have done it? CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Things must be a little warmer. So some sense, but extreme events? How does that work?
How do extreme events occur as a result of slightly higher CO2 over a hundred years? Did someone just make this up or is there some real proven science behind extreme events?
Truly puzzled.
86
Tdef.
Oh c’mon, there is more research and evidence on these relationships than anyone can read in a lifetime. You cannot be doing much reading on the subject at all.
The cause of these things is global warming, and global warming is caused by increasing levels of CO2 pollution.
I will give you a hint. To understand climate ignore weather, headlines and just about what anyone says. Just look at the trend in the annual and decadal data, it says it all.
621
Sorry Harry, perhaps you didn’t hear the news, but crikey, it was in all the papers.
Since the turn of the century:
CO2 – up.
Warming – stopped.
Game over.
Thanks for playing.
195
Yes the CO2 vs warming hypothesis was a huge observational experiment that disproved the correlation but that doesn’t help Harry’s social science hero’s getting free money and pointless awards does it?
124
The hypothesis has been falsified because of the pause in temperature, but we need a weather war to settle the issue.
73
el gordo.
“The hypothesis has been falsified because of the pause in temperature…”
What “pause”? 2016 was the warmest year on record, that does not sound like a “pause” to me.
37
2016 was an El Nino transient, only a tiny fraction warmer than 1998, and nowhere near as warm the MWP, RWP and most of the first 3/4 of the Holocene.
Before that transient there was no warming for 20 year.
https://s19.postimg.org/qp3u91to3/RSS_El_Nino_trend.png
If you want to DENY CLIMATE CHANGE by looking only the short period since we have semi reliable measurements, which just happens to be the beneficial natural warming period out of the COLDEST period in 10,000 years… then..
…. by all means continue to make a CLIMATE CHANGE DEÑÏËR out of your self.
72
Raven.
“Warming – stopped.”
Strange, all the global mean temperature data sets I have seen show warming. And the papers says the same thing.
But if you have new data, by all means post it and we can have a discussion.
26
There’s no need for new data, Harry.
I would suggest you to listen to the experts in the field. Isn’t that what you would also recommend?
72
‘The cause of these things is global warming, and global warming is caused by increasing levels of CO2 pollution.’
The cause of these things is global cooling, which is linked to the sun.
There, fixed it.
73
el gordo.
“The cause of these things is global cooling, which is linked to the sun.”
If you have data which supports your “global cooling” hypothesis, please post and we can have a discussion.
210
Doubtful – that would require an open mind on your part.
71
‘To understand climate ignore weather…’
That would be a huge mistake, Harry.
The Southern Ocean SST is cooling against the AGW trend and the Klimatariat thinks its an aberration.
What is your opinion of the cause?
66
el gordo.
I usually try not to have an opinion on something that is not true, or does not exist.
“The Southern Ocean SST is cooling against the AGW trend and the Klimatariat thinks its an aberration.”
Please post your references. The Southern Ocean is a big place, I would be fascinated if it is showing a cooling trend.
36
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/figure-8.png?w=640&h=423
43
What’s up Harry CO2 forgot to warm you up?
I see quite a few reference to Southern Ocean SST not being very warm like the models want. But as I pointed out before those doing the modeling can not get the Southern Ocean model to work.
That’s what happens when models are built with assumptions and guesswork instead of investigation, observation, and science, then corrected with verification and validation.
43
Poor Harry, real data always was his enema. !
52
Tomo
How many times do we have to say it?
These THINGS are not models.
At best they might be called projections but not in any way scientific models.
🙂
31
You are welcome to produce a paper that proves CO₂ causes warming in a convective atmosphere.
Or you can keep up your baseless religious beliefs, bow down and kiss the *** of the AGW priests, Twotter, they will love you.
No CO₂ warming in the whole satellite data period, just El Nino releases of pent up solar energy.
No increase in sea level rise. .
In Fact, absolutely NO CO₂ warming signal anywhere.
CO₂ up….. nothing happening except data adjustments.
76
Maybe this fits the bill?
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/climategate2-noaa-vs-truth.jpg
42
🙂
32
“there is more research and evidence on these relationships than anyone can read in a lifetime”
Is that why you haven’t even attempted ?
You certainly seem to have missed the very basics.
65
“there is more research and evidence on these relationships”
But not one paper that proves CO₂ causes warming in a convective atmosphere. Funny about that 😉
32
Oh, unbelievers, don’t you know extreme weather events when you see them?
Super cold here, super hot there, lots of rain over there, and none in the other direction.
It is proof positive of global warming, er, climate change. And you did it. And God will smite you.
Halleluja.
Amen.
92
Nailed it Mark.
Hot days are proof of ‘Global Warming’. Cool days are proof of ‘Climate Change’. Perfectly stable average temperatures are proof that those “This car is a carbon neutral vehicle” bumper stickers are working.
123
William Buckley, who escaped as a convict in December of 1803 and then after some months of wandering alone around the fringes of the Bay and the Bellarine Peninsula , was accepted by and lived live with the local Victorian Port Phillip Bay aboriginals for some 32 years.
He then rejoined the settlers and settled in Tasmania, was pardoned by the Governor and died from traffic injuries in January 1856.
Buckley told of many aboriginal legends including that of aboriginal groups hunting across the great grassed plain of what is now the bed of Port Phillip Bay.
Which takes the legend back some 12,000 to 14,000 years ago to a time when the land bridge between Tasmania and the mainland was still above the then sea levels and Port Phillip bay was an vast open flat grassed plain with the now Yarra river bed running down its central parts close to where the dredged channel along the whole length of the Bay for the big ocean going ships is located today.
Another of the local aboriginal legends that Buckley described was of great white islands drifting past along the coast.
In all probability the legends were describing ice bergs that had drifted north far enough to be seen in Bass Strait.
[ In another forum it was suggested that the aboriginals could have been describing the early sailing ships and their white sails but by the time of Buckley, the local peoples would have been well aware of the sailing ships and the the a new legend would have foundered on the local’s knowledge of the white man’s sailing ships and they way they looked and were handled. ]
Which again fits close to the end of the last ice age of around 14,000 years ago or earlier and a time which the early arriving group of aboriginal peoples had been in Australia for some 40,000 years by then.
A lady anthropologist in the mid 1970’s before the indigenous industry got firm control of the anthropology profession in Australia through the grant allocation system, claimed in a series of radio broadcast Boyer Lectures that I listened to with rapt attention, I was doing a lot of night tractor driving at the time of the year, that the successive waves of aboriginal peoples, there have been at least four waves of aboriginal peoples into Australia over the last 50,000 years which leads to who do we acknowledge as the original inhabitants of Australia, the first wave of peoples arriving possibly nearly a 100,000 years ago judging by the ash deposits according to the Boyer Lecture anthropologist with the last influx of a much more advanced peoples with better weapons and a more advanced culture some 22,000 years ago.
The later arrivals who are are found in the north of Australia are genetically different to the earlier peoples such as the Tasmanian aboriginal peoples.
The later arrivals with their superior technology drove the first primitive aboriginal peoples south until they were finally isolated in Tasmania as the land bridge was cut off by the rising sea levels as the remnants of the last ice age faded away.
The 100,000 year figure for the first arrivals is not accepted by the anthropology profession today but if it was only a small migration group who made it here in a short window of climatic conditions and the occasional low sea levels conditions of those millenniums back then evidence of their arrival could very easily have been wiped out by the immense TOBA super volcano explosion in Sumatra some 75,000 years ago .
The immense Toba super volcano explosion is believed to have created the human bottle neck which shows in our genes where possibly considerably less than a maximum of 20,000 breeding pairs of humans survived this bottle neck some 70,000 years ago.
We as a race and species came that damn close to extinction that it is a miracle that we as a race have come to dominate this planet with only the insect and termite and bacterial world still more dominant and will remain so than we in our hubris are ever likely to achieve.
114
The existence of an earlier pygmy race of aboriginals, well documented into the 1960s, is now forgotten and artfully buried because it became politically inconvenient in the 80s when land rights took hold as an issue. Two anthropologists found two surviving pygmies in the Nullarbor in the mid 60’s, and another survivor of the race was living in Millaa Millaa near Cairns in the late 80s. He was I think the last of his race in that area.
It was interesting that the pygmies of Cairns were well known in early colonial days because they used to befriend shipwreck victims from the numerous wrecks on the barrier reef, whereas the “conventional” aboriginals used to kill them. It was stated by the survivors that the other tribes used to hunt the pygmies too, which is why they were forced to live in the rainforest where the others feared to go. If I was walking naked amongst Stinging Trees I’d be fearful too.
None of this sits well with the current aboriginal industry’s take on history of course.
I have also heard an unsubstantiated report that there was a pygmy race in NZ before the Maori. I have no idea if that is true or not.
10
William Buckley’s story of those 32 years is extraordinary in that he witnessed stone age people insitu with little encumbrance. A terrifying savage environment.
Its possible that people came here 100,000 years ago, but reliance on ash is only circumstantial evidence.
Still, we could make a case that the first wave may have come from northern Eurasia.
I’ll do some reading and get back on the open thread.
20
Note that even Jo fell for the Politically Correct trap of heading this post as “Climate Change . . .” when we all know that it’s Global Warming that caused this record low temperature for Perth.
53
The record low temps were caused by the weather, actually. The data shows that Perth is warming, overall.
617
The western coolness and eastern warmth are both weather Harry.
BTW, how are those three stranded ships going in the ‘ice-free NWP’ Harry?
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0872-global-warming-icebreaker-marooned-by-thick-ice-connects-to-shore-power-supply/
81
Correction required, it’s not the NWP, it’s the Northern Sea Route. Sorry for any confusion.
80
@ Bruce C,
I’m sorry to be pedantic Bruce, but a further correction is required to your comment. It is no longer politically correct to call it “weather”. You should say “Extreme Events” thus enabling alleged correlations of increasing CO2 with just about anything unusual….. maybe the next big volcanic eruption? (and forgetting that correlation does not show cause)
Oddly, over here in Melbourne yesterday, ABC and SBS TV reports seemed to consider that the flash flooding in Perth was an extreme event but I did not see any mention of the unusually low temperatures. (contrasting massed sweltering human flesh on Eastern beaches)
It’s interesting to compare the BoM rainfall map for the past week as at 10/Feb:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=totals&period=week&area=nat
With their Max T map for the day of 10/Feb, (following no evaporative cooling in the hot centre for a week):
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=maxanom&period=daily&area=nat
AND with my favourite airflow map here (hopefully as accessed at ~3:00 PM EST Oz today):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-243.67,-22.52,841
I don’t know, but each of these linked sources may change with time but each have archival and other option menus. Click ‘Earth’ for the airflow menu.
I find it quite surprising that a centennial increase of CO2 from around 0.03% to 0.04% of the atmosphere can be seriously attributed by mainstream academics for such contrasting local rainfall and air circulation events as illustrated above (but only in recent times as hyped with electronically spread media feeding frenzies).
Of course, all those ‘once in a hundred year events’ impossible to claim as caused by AGW can be ignored.
62
Sorry Bob, from now on I will refer it to an ‘Extreme Event’. I will also include ‘Unprecedented’ in there somewhere as well.
Thanks for the tip.
🙂
42
BruceC.
“The western coolness and eastern warmth are both weather Harry.”
I agree, they are both weather events. One of the events is consistent with the long-term trend, and the other is not.
“BTW, how are those three stranded ships going in the ‘ice-free NWP’ Harry?”
Irrelevant subject change. The Arctic is a big place, it is winter in the Arctic and the Arctic has a lot of sea ice in the winter, so the fact that ships can get stuck there is not surprising.
38
‘The record low temps were caused by the weather, actually.’
The SST anomaly running to the south west is climate change reflected in unusual weather.
61
There were a dozen or so WA stations stretching into the Pilbara that yesterday had a record February daily low maximum and a scan through site observations shows at least six had record Feb cold max today (10 Feb) – Albany Airport, Bickley, Cape Naturaliste, Gingin, Shannon and Walpole.
11 southern WA stations had their lowest winter mean max on record and several dozen had their lowest winter max in at least 23 years. In September, the South West Land Division mean maximum was about 1.4C below average, the equal 10th coolest September on record. The southern WA September mean minimum was about 2.1C below average and the lowest in September on record. Using raw and adjusted at ACORN stations, I calculate September 2016 had the coldest mean temp in the South West since 1897 (http://www.waclimate.net/september-coldest-2016.html).
In the last 11 days we’ve had the 5th coldest January day at Perth Metro/Regional Office since 1897, the coldest January day at Perth Airport since opening in 1945, as well as the coldest February day ever recorded at Perth Metro/RO and Perth Airport … along with the 10th coldest Feb day since 1897 and the third coldest Feb day at Perth Airport.
These coolest season in decades, record cold days and months are despite controversial and debatable artificial warming influences such as urban or airport heat, small screens with automatic weather stations, etc (the same factors that might contribute to the record hot maxima recorded in NSW today).
I suspect sea surface temperatures that chilled off the west coast early last year and spread into the Southern Ocean, with the latest BoM data showing SST off the south west coast below average in January. However, the BoM’s SST monthly readings for the Southwest Region were 0.22C above average from June to December last year, and it’s interesting that land temps were dipping to among the coldest in 120 years when seas to the west and south were warmer than 1961-90. The Indian Ocean Dipole was significantly negative from July to November but it and ENSO are currently neutral.
WA’s far northern SST and land temperatures seem to have joined the chill over the past month or so. It’ll be interesting to see if the past nine months in WA’s south were just a coincidence of ocean and weather patterns, with above average temps returning soon, or if something more significant is responsible.
113
Dear Climate Change,
I’m glad you’re able to be too hot while it’s unseasonably cold in Perth. I would hate to think the truth could rain on your parade. I would have very dull days if it was not for the humor you provide. The joke that is you has been a laugh ever since I first heard of you. So by all means keep it up. I look forward to many a day being well entertained by you, on and on into the future forever.
Sincerely
Not exactly your greatest fan
83
Can’t say you don’t need the water though – Storages at 30.8% and rising hope it stops at 97% for you…
20
PS that loose sand you call soil there can’t be helping …
30
Perception manipulation by the BOM
A bit off topic but I would like to point out the outrageous use of “hot” colors by the BOM in their temperature maps which have been much in the new this week. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=T&level=2m&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
Basically they have green, the positive color cease at 2 degrees C, and everything above that shade from warm yellow to fiery red and then deadly black (my exaggeration but commonly how people would interpret these colors) How different this picture would look if they used green in the 20 to 25 C range where the temperature comfort zone is for humans.
Just annoyed.
32
Something has changed in a few years, it seems like only yesterday that Perth was surrounded by hot water.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Caryl_3.gif
21
Just think if there had been a couple more dams to capture all that water now running unfettered out to sea………
30
So, on average, all our South and WestAussie friends are comfortable, not too hot, not too cold, not too wet, not too dry, with no average dearth of electricity or average need to run the air conditioner.
Aren’t statistics amazing?
/sarc-in-a-can but I hope you didn’t need to be told.
41
Wow! SA news was sprouting about the rain in WA, but narry a word about the low temperature record. This is the only place I have heard about this. Which makes sense, of course. Continued fake news on MSM.
72
Rgb.
I heard about the low temperatures in Perth (including the rain) on the ABC news.
38
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Lot of cold water in the Indian Ocean just west of Perth is likely the reason for record cool temperatures (see above). Apparently that same coolness may be responsible for slightly reduced evaporation, low pressures which are not so low, and therefore reduced trade winds, and a return to el niño rather than a full-on la niña.
31
Just because some regions have experienced cooling does not invalidate global warming. That the region is as geographically extensive as the Southern Hemisphere is neither here nor there. All the important suff is up here anyway, if we start running out of didgeridoos then I might start worrying.
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When maxima are averaged from ACORN-SAT stations across WA, 9 February 2017 was also the coldest February day in the state since homogenised records began in 1910.
There are 25 ACORN-SAT stations in WA but the BoM hasn’t made available the 9 February 2017 maxima at the four ACORN stations of Albany Airport, Carnarvon, Meekatharra and Port Hedland, so the comparison is made with every February day since 1910 at the 21 other stations.
The comparison is further complicated by the fact there were 11 ACORN stations open in 1910 (excluding Albany and Carnarvon that don’t have the 2017 temp), but 21 were open in 1976 once Learmonth had opened (excluding all four stations that don’t have the 2017 temp).
The 11 ACORN stations open in 1910 had an average max of 22.25C on 9 February 2017 and the next coldest February day was 14 February 1955 when their average max was 23.01C.
The 21 ACORN stations had an average max of 24.06C on 9 February 2017 and, since 1976, the next coldest February day was 20 February 2008 when their average max was 25.18C.
Within those comparisons, 9-11 February 2017 also set records or near records for the coldest two and three consecutive February days since 1910.
These comparisons are made using the homogenised ACORN-SAT dataset, not RAW temperatures, so the 9 February 2017 average max are compared against any cooling bias that may exist due to BoM adjustments at the 21 stations since 1910.
Using ACORN stations and homogenised temps to estimate average daily max, it seems fair to say that 9 February 2017 wasn’t just the coldest February day in Perth since records began, but also the coldest February day right across WA since 1910.
The February daily temperature tables and an Excel download are at http://www.waclimate.net/coldest-february-day.html
If anybody wants to argue that it’s just 11 or 21 ACORN stations and not the full compliment of 25 in WA … it’s possible to substitute the four missing stations’ max with their half hourly maxima that, when I checked Latest Observations on the BoM site, were still available from 2.30pm on 9 Feb. A couple of stations were warmer at 3pm than 2.30pm so all four temps are probably accurate to within one or two decimals of a degree.
I tested the substitutions and all 25 ACORN stations had an average maximum of 24.18C on 9 February 2017, compared to their second coldest February day of 24.71C on 14 February 1955. I’ve not presented the full 25 ACORN stations on the page linked above because their 9 Feb 2017 averages might not be precise and because it’s inaccurate to compare 13 stations averaged in 1910 with 25 stations averaged since 1976.
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And yet, then there is this:
Temperature in Oklahoma reaches 99 degrees in mid-February
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And then there is this:
Record-tying high temperature for February in Oklahoma
So there has been no warming in the last 100 years.
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There’s been a readjustment of the coldest February daily temperatures on this blog and in my previous comment.
The bureau has confirmed that the Perth Metro maximum temperature on Friday, 10 February, wasn’t 20.5C as reported by all media, which would have been the 10th coldest February day since Perth Regional Office observations started in 1897.
The Friday maximum at Perth Metro was 22.47C at 8.37am on Saturday morning.
Perth Airport wasn’t 20.2C, which would have been the 3rd coldest February day since observations began in 1945. Friday’s maximum at the airport was 21.3C at 8.41am on Saturday morning.
The BoM reports daily maximum temperature as the highest temperature in the 24 hours after 9am on any given date. If you were reading last Saturday morning’s newspaper before 8.30am and saw on the weather page that Perth’s Friday maximum was 20.5C, it was wrong because Friday’s maximum hadn’t yet occurred.
Also, the bureau has recovered the maximum temperatures for 9 February at Albany Airport, Carnarvon Airport and Meekatharra Airport, and has updated its Climate Data Online database with the recovered temps.
This allows a more comprehensive daily maximum average at 24 of the 25 ACORN stations in WA, with the BoM presently unable to provide the 9 Feb maximum for Port Hedland Airport.
The rearranged average daily temps now show that among all 13 WA ACORN stations open since 1910, 9 Feb 2017 was the coldest ever Feb day across all of WA, 9 and 10 Feb were the coldest ever two consecutive Feb days, and 9,10,11 Feb were the coldest ever three consecutive Feb days.
Among the 24 WA ACORN stations open since 1976 (excluding Port Hedland throughout), it was the coldest ever Feb day across all of WA, 9 and 10 Feb 2017 were the coldest ever two consecutive Feb days, and 9,10,11 Feb were the second coldest three consecutive Feb days.
This is using adjusted ACORN temps so last week’s record WA cold was despite a probable homogenised cooling bias in historic daily temps.
Updated tables and analysis are at http://www.waclimate.net/september-coldest-2016.html and http://www.waclimate.net/coldest-february-day.html, including Excel download with supporting data.
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Chris Gillham.
Perth Metro and Perth Regional Office are two different stations, you cannot randomly use measurements from one then the other without homogenizing the two temperature series first.
Considering climate change deniers do not trust homogenization, I would not do it! They will get upset and start accusing you of fraud.
Also as I pointed out before, ACORN-SAT is not used for “headline” temperature records, AWAP is. ACORN-SAT is continually adjusted to maintain consistent temperature trends over time for a location in face of station changes , it’s not really intended to be used for day-to-day temperature measurements to see if “records” have been broken or not.
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Come off it, Harry. The BoM frequently references temps at its headline Metro station with Regional Office temps and has always acknowledged Metro’s site in Mt Lawley is a flow-on from RO in Wellington St because they’re only about 3km apart and roughly equidistant from the coast.
RO was the oldest and closest temp series available for ACORN to use prior to the 1944 opening of Perth Airport so temps could be be monitored back to 1910, with a carpet of adjustments to compensate the three moves of RO from Kings Park to Wellington St and the different environment of the airport which is much further inland from the coast. Actually, a better station to match with Perth Airport in ACORN would have been Guildford PO which opened in 1901 and was just a couple of kilometres directly north of the airport site. Guildford PO had a 1910-19 mean temp of 18.25C and Perth Airport had a 2000-16 mean temp of 18.8C, up 0.55C. Guildford PO in 1943-52 had a mean of 18.6C, the airport 18.1C.
ACORN-SAT isn’t continually adjusted. It’s temps back to 1910 were homogenised, ACORN was launched in 2012 and all that’s happened since is the addition of fresh temps as the years roll by, almost entirely unadjusted raw for the past decade or so.
You don’t seem happy comparing raw Metro with raw RO temps, even though the BoM agrees that last week’s 9 February 17.4C was by far the coldest ever February day in Perth back to 1897, which is comparing it with RO.
A comparison of last week’s temps with the homogenised ACORN Perth Airport 9021 shows 9 Feb 2017 as the coldest Feb day since 1910 and 10 Feb at 21.3C (at 8.41am on 11 Feb) was the 18th coldest day. Together, their average is the coldest two consecutive February days in Perth since 1910, homogenised.
You make no comment on the 9 February comparison with 24 ACORN stations all the way across WA, showing coldest single, two and three consecutive Feb daily records, even though I use homogenised daily ACORN temps wherein most but not all bureau adjustments back to 1910 have been cooler than recorded by the thermometers to compensate for site moves and other perceived artificial influences.
I don’t think either ACORN or raw temps can be trusted but if I’m supposed to believe that the accuracy of ACORN is sacrosanct, Perth and WA last week still experienced their coldest February days on record. Your protestations sound like the usual … any historic temps can be compared if they suggest a new hot record, but no historic temps can be compared if they suggest a new cold record.
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Chris Gillham.
You have avoided my points. Anyway not to worry I don’t care. I spent maybe an hour doing that analysis I posted above comparing the trend in the temp series, and that is all the time I am going to spend on it.
“You don’t seem happy comparing raw Metro with raw RO temps, even though the BoM agrees that last week’s 9 February 17.4C was by far the coldest ever February day in Perth back to 1897, which is comparing it with RO.”
If the BOM did indeed say this this, please provide a link to the media article. I am interested to see how they worded it.
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@ Harry Twinotter,
Since you are prepared to visit the JoNova site (but not WUWT) I recommend that you visit:
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/07/scandal-bom-thermometer-records-fiddled-by-month-mysterious-square-wave-pattern-discovered/
and particularly go to figure 1 which compares CDO and ACORN daily data for Perth downloaded from the BoM website.
If you keep an open mind you should be able to see that there is something very seriously wrong with the ACORN process.
Unfortunately, when advised such matters, the BoM have advised they will not investigate unless they are funded to do so…….Ho Hum.
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“If you keep an open mind”
Seriously Bob, this is Twotter you are talking to.
His mind is closed, and is totally empty.. which explains the manic AGW echo in all his posts.
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@AndyG55
I’ve just recollected that Harry T has previously visited the older JoNova article that I recommended for him; per 55.1 above. On checking, it was back in July 2015 when he first responded with five rather off-topic comments of trivial interest. However, his sixth one:
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/07/scandal-bom-thermometer-records-fiddled-by-month-mysterious-square-wave-pattern-discovered/#comment-1724450
reveals that he is incapable of, or in denial of understanding the DATA analysis that is incontrovertibly elaborated in the article, or that Joanne’s introduction to it is jocular.
He does silly/naïve stuff such as describing CDO (Climate Data on Line) time-series data as AWAP (Australian Water Availability Project) for which I’m only aware of colourful mapped data rather than the subject time-series data.
02
Bob Fernley-Jones.
The BOM say clearly on their website that the ACORN-SAT is adjusted. And they clearly say the reasons why. I have no time for faux-controversies.
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@ Harry Twinotter,
Yes, we all know that the BoM have adjusted the records and that they (= Blair Trewin) have expressed their reasons why.
However, you either do not understand or deny the evidence of bad practice that has been revealed to you.
It is a matter of DATA ANALYSIS in which I’m a career expert, (nothing to do with “climate science”)
02
Bob Fernley-Jones.
“It is a matter of DATA ANALYSIS in which I’m a career expert, (nothing to do with “climate science”)”
No, you are a garden-variety crank.
10
Harry, I’ve no idea why you can’t just download the raw and ACORN dailies, spend a few minutes sorting data and see the results for yourself. Ah well, the results are in this blog’s images and you seemingly don’t believe them, so I’ll assume you prefer the media rather than the temps themselves.
The BoM doesn’t issue media releases about cold things but if you want a media link, try https://thewest.com.au/news/weather/perth-shivers-through-its-coldest-february-day-ng-b88382112z.
You’ll read the line “Perth’s temperature maxed out at 17.4 degrees at 4.19pm, well below the lowest previous top for the month of 19.0 degrees on February 17, 2014.” Oops, it was actually 19.0C on February 17, 1914, as in the image above. They only got the date wrong by a hundred years but you don’t trust the temps themselves and prefer the accuracy of the media.
How about the AFR at http://www.afr.com/news/as-the-east-coast-swelters-perth-freezes-amid-record-rain-20170209-gu9v5p? “The mercury reached just 17.4C on Thursday making it the coldest February day since records began more than 100 years ago.”
If these links don’t work, just go to Google, type in something like “perth coldest february day” and all will be revealed. Most media have been rabbiting on about the record heatwave across Australia last week, oblivious to the fact that the western 2.6 million sq km was having record averaged cold temps. It’s ridiculous that because the media hasn’t mentioned WA’s or Perth’s record cold spell, I have to point you to Google to find some facts. You could also follows links I’ve posted earlier to find out about southern WA’s past 10 months of cool climate and record lows, but they’ll take you to data instead of media.
By the way, I covered all your points despite the fact I don’t think you really had any.
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Chris Gillham.
So the BOM never said these things. So your comment about the BOM was false.
00