From the BOM animated satellite viewer. (Click to enlarge, or click here for the animation — if you have the bandwidth).
This image was taken at about 6pm EST as darkness started to sweep across the nation. (It is all dark now).
- Tropical Cyclone Debbie: Queenslanders preparing for worst cyclone since Yasi
- 256km Radar at Mackay (for a cat-4 the rain is very underwhelming)
- The fantastic Nullschool wind track image.
- Twitter Cyclone Debbie
For sheer weather voyerism (forgive me people of Ayr-to-Mackay): at the BOM satellite animation watch night befall the nation and notice how the the clouds appear for-all-the-world like river rapids flowing over rocks. Up close in the darkness, the clouds roil and churn like a wave smashing over a beach. (I’m sure if someone could capture some cropped video it would be impossible to tell if it were clouds or waves, see the “white-water” above Antarctica. See the two waves collide explosively into each other over the Pilbara in NW WA).
Best wishes to everyone in Debbie’s path tonight.
UPDATE:
12 noon QLD Time: Hamilton Island is on the edge of the eye right now according to the radar. Latest Observations at Hamilton Island show wind gusts peaked at 263km/hr at 10:30am Qld time. Lowest pressure 961HpA. About 120mm rain recorded in last 24 hours. [Copy of Obs, Copy of Radar.] On the Dvorak scale the cyclone was a 6.5 (8 is Max) but has lost some intensity and is down to 5.4. 947mB, 109.8 kts. [Dvorak copy here].
globull warming, global warming, global warming……we’re all doomed !
We cause more hurricanes…We cause less hurricanes…. > http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/climate-change-warnings-over-the-years.jpg
144
Darn.. you beat me to it !!
We must all stop every bit of CO2 production so that there will never be another Debbie !!
124
breathe in… and stop.
60
Hello Adam Brandt.
50
No, No. Even Virginia Triolli was awake to that this morning. It is are we causing more “EXTREME” cyclones.
51
Extremely slow perhaps.
51
What have we had so far this year 3, 4, 5? How many of those could be even considered extreme? maybe Debbie its CAT 4 – Id hate to be in its path. The others were not so, very weak I believe and only half of what was predicted by the BOM to form have actually formed. I recall the prediction was to be 10-13 for the year due to the warmer seas?
41
I believe that Debbie is the first cyclone in Qld for two years now.
40
The newer all-singing,all-dancing climate models have been revised to show that Australia will get fewer cyclones but they will be more intense:
http://theconversation.com/tropical-cyclone-frequency-falls-to-centuries-low-in-australia-but-will-the-lull-last-20814
The climate models can be tuned to fit any data. Their main problem is that they have zero ability to forecast so are fundamentally useless toys for computer gamers to play with.
Average Joe can observe the frequency but intensity is not so apparent. Damage is not a good measure because it can be more or less depending on the population density where they hit land. BoM clearly have an interest in hyping the severity because, if frequency is dropping and severity the same, then what is the problem.
I expect it is trendless; in line with natural variability.
40
You are right. We are doomed.
21
https://www.windytv.com This site seems to have been more accurate than the BoM most of today. It shows as I type Bowen getting a direct hit via near Airlie beach (move the date and time slider). What is super interesting the weekend shows the cyclone pop out again and reform near Brisbane then move up from the Gold Coast all the way to Frazer island.
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Very good graphics on your link !
51
Egor. Saw it often on “Suspicious Observers” YouTube videos. He documents well and had the link in the description box.
21
Great link, thanks. Very informative for those of us in the CQ/Capricornia area at the moment!
61
It is changing a little. It now shows landfall at Airlie beach and the cyclone going just North just inland from Bowen. Winds predicted to be worse late tonight and early tomorrow for coast around both towns. gusts above 137Ks for both around midnight.
Now showing a cyclone near Brisbane on Friday arvo but it seems to fade after that.
21
Thanks Siliggy. What people need.
51
What a great site?
Unfortunately, it is showing me the wind and rain situation in Cook Strait, which is demonstrably a lot less dramatic than in Victoria.
Hmm, need a user manual, and a flying instructor.
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“Victoria”? What am I on about? I meant Queensland! Dumb! Learning point: Do not comment prior to first coffee of the day!
91
.
And a Map!
10
Slow to stationary at the moment. Might turn south before hitting coast. Mackey more likely than Bowen.
12
Livestream
31
Also: Tropical Cyclone Debbie – Castle Hill, Townsville – Live Stream
31
I often wonder why most depressions never develop into powerful cyclones. This one has been around for a few days over the warm shallow waters off the Queensland coast and failed to fill and fizzle-out. Something has intensified it. Could it be the increase in solar wind from the coronal hole (canyon) on the Sun? Spaceweather.com reports 545km/sec this evening with 14 protons/cm3 which is very high.
43
John the SST has to be 26.5 C before lift off and the cyclone can continue under its own steam even when SST slackens off. Solar winds play no part in the formation of cyclones or hurricanes.
41
And more than 5 degrees from the equator.
Cyclones/ Hurricanes/ Typhoons, same thing, need the differences in the Earth’s speed of rotation at the different latitudes the tropical storm originally covers to get their rotation statrted and to then develop into full blown cyclones with a vortex type structure and supplied with the heat it draws from the very warm tropical ocean surfaces to drive its evaporation and condensation processes.
For this situation a lower latitude, one closer to the equator has a rotational speed of a couple of tens of kilometers faster than a higher latitude, one that is a few degrees further from the equator.
And that simple fact, the higher the latitude in degrees and the greater the distance from the equator , the lower the rotational speeds of the planet at those higher latitudes due to the reducing circumference of the earth at each of those ever higher latitudes.
So a Tropical Storm once it has formed due to SST’s being above around 26.5C minimum SST’s but usually requiring around 28C SST’s to get a good tropical storm up and running and one which has moved away from the Equator or has formed more than a couple of degrees away from the Equator, begins to feel the effects of the higher drag forces of the faster speeds of the rotating Earth nearest the Equator compared to the edges of the tropical storm further away from the Equator and at a higher latitude where the planet’s surface speed is quite a few kilometers per hour slower.
And so the surface drag forces acting on the tropical storm in say the SH drag the edges of the tropical storm along faster nearest the equator.
Compared to the slower surface speeds and surface drag forces further away, further South from the equator.
And so begins a rotation of the tropical storm, clockwise in the Southern hemisphere with the edge of the storm nearest the equator being dragged along faster than the edge of the storm further away from the equator beginning the clockwise rotation that characterises a cyclone in the SH and the reverse for the anti-clockwise rotating NH Typhoon / Hurricane.
http://vizual-statistix.tumblr.com/post/74287163429/have-you-ever-wondered-how-fast-you-are-spinning; Click on graph to enlarge
Cyclones need to draw immense amounts of heat energy to maintain their structure and keep the evporation and condensation systems going that are the drivers of cyclones and its namesakes storms.
It draws this heat from as far down as 10 metres or so below the ocean surface leaving some quite cold surface waters behind in the cyclone’s track.
It is Heat energy that is required to keep it organised as a cyclone and to replace the colossal amounts of heat it releases into the stratosphere as the evaporated water from the ocean surface in the form of water vapour reaches very high altitudes and the very cold regions in the stratosphere and then the evaporated water vapour from the ocean surface far below re-condenses in the stratosphere or upper troposphere as water droplets thereby releasing immense amounts of latent heat into space, heat which then has to be replaced by drawing more heat energy from the ocean below if the cyclone is to continue to hold its structure.
And the cyclone will usually continue and hold its structure until the it runs into colder water as in moving south or north and further away from the warm tropical waters of the equatorial regions and into the colder waters of sub tropics where the ocean surface heat content and therefore the evaporation rates from the ocean surface are no longer sufficient to keep on powering the evaporation and condensation processes that are the drivers a cyclone.
Or it moves over land where its heat energy supply ceases to exist and so we see the decay of the cyclone into a rain depression where that colossal tonnage of water vapour in the cyclone’s structure that was originally evaporated from the ocean surface, condenses out and falls as huge amounts of precipitation over the land.
Cyclones / Hurricanes / Typhoons are just Nature’s colossal natural heat engines that transfer immense amounts of heat energy from one part of the Earth’s environment to another and in doing so tosses a very large part of that heat energy as latent energy derived from the evaporation of water vapour from the ocean surface, back into space from where it came from as solar energy in the first place.
40
I used to run boats in the Whitsundays, so I’ve been through a few cyclones, protecting the boats, while being responsible for the men working on them.
We had one thing going for us back in the 70s & 80s, we trusted the BOM. Yes they got their timing & wind strengths a bit wrong sometimes, but we trusted them to be really trying to do their best for us.
After the last one, where they obviously talked up the wind strength, & continued to do so, after the lack of serious damage in many areas proved it was not as high as they claimed.
They seem to forget is that a lot of us who have been there, & done that. We actually know what wind speed we experienced, we measured it ourselves. We know what the various trees looked like after that wind speed hit them.
It is fair to say some of us know a damn site better than anyone at the weather bureau, or the CSIRO, what damage these wind speeds actually did.
It is disturbing that I can no longer trust these organisations to tell the truth. I see propaganda creeping into even such serious forecasts as wind speed likely in a coming cyclone.
Thank god I no longer run those boats, or live up there. It would be much harder, not trusting the forecasts, to decide what action I should take, with the boats, or my family.
333
The reality is that the strongest (sub-880 hPa) recorded cyclones occurred in the 1950s and 1970s. The biggest and most intense ever recorded, Tip, occurred in 1979. While Yasi in 2011 was an absolute brute, Australia’s worst was very likely Mahina in 1899. (I haven’t checked to see if any of these facts have been given a wrench or stuffed down the memory hole, but they were true till recently.)
Extreme weather happens and when we ask the alarmists what era was without these extremes there is no reply. Ask when the climate was stable…no reply. You are allowed to use comparatives such as “more intense”, “more frequent”…but the points of comparison are deliberately blurred. There is no “than” there.
Now, as Hasbeen points out, you always feel the need to pull away the political packaging from the simplest piece of information offered on weather or climate. Even if info has not been distorted, the suspicion is there that it has been.
If Mahina or the 1939 heat/fires or the Bulahdelah Tornado were to happen now, who doubts that our Green Betters would find tricky ways to attribute it to you-know-what? They can’t help themselves.
Anyway, I hope all is well up north. I bag Queenslanders every chance I get, but, really, I admire them hugely.
133
BOM Warning at 12 midnight (2 hours ago).
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20023.html
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 12:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 19.6 degrees South 149.7 degrees East, estimated to be 155 kilometres east northeast of Bowen and 180 kilometres north northeast of Mackay.
Movement: west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is currently a category 4 cyclone. It may intensify further as it continues to move west-southwest towards the Queensland coast this morning. Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) late this morning.
41
So for someone who knows more about this than me: would we normally expect to see heavy rainfall om a rain radar in a cat 4?
Is there some reason radars might underestimate cyclonic rain?
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Jo, I know very little on the subject, but note that Townsville and Bowen radars are now showing very different-looking conditions for the same areas. eg Mackay is showing dry on the Townsville radar but wet on Bowen’s at 1.20 am (however only on the fringe of the main action). Mackay’s own radar is showing it as very wet and close in to the action. I guess radar does what it can, but expertise and local knowledge are still needed to interpret.
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FWIW, my experience is that the most rain comes from the lower intensity and spent cyclones.
The half-hour readings http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/observations/map.shtml show about 5mm for Bowen AP in the hour up to 1:30 am, Hamilton Island about the same. Rain, but not heavy.
Bowen AP wind currently 46 sustained 61 gusting. Hamilton now 132/172 km/hr, so getting to the point where it might get shut down to mitigate damage, power goes off, or something breaks. I don’t anticipate any retrospective breakages with this one, as occurred with Middle Percy Island and Marcia.
81
Maximum wind speed that I have noted so far was at the Hamilton Is site at 0500 (Qld time) with wind gusts of 189kph.
That corresponds with a Category 3 cyclone, accordong to the BOM definition:
The BOM has been calling Debbie a category 4 cyclone since 10pm last night.
There are still a few hours to go before Debbie crosses the coast so the winds might intensify, but it does look as though we jave seen the maximum. Category 3.
71
The earth model gives an indication of 3 hour rainfall. There is reasonable agreement between it and the BoM rainfall data for the three hours 0500 to 0800 but maybe a slight positioning error with the eye of the cyclone:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=precip_3hr/grid=on/orthographic=-217.48,-21.38,2704/loc=148.174,-19.589
The warmer air from the north mixes with the cooler air from the SE and rising over the land so there is more precipitation over land than on the water. Proserpine had more rain to the 3 hours to 8am than Hamilton Island despite the latter being nearer the eye.
31
Jo we had one in the late 70s early 80s with an eye that crossed the Whitsundays coast.
I was up a mangrove creek on the mainland, our usual cyclone bolt hole, with 2 island boats, 6 bareboat yachts, their mother ship, & my own yacht. I had about 4 men with me.
The bureau got that one fairly wrong, due to radar readings. It had a huge eye, 60 nautical miles diameter from memory, but like this one, not much rain on the southern half of the eye.
This obscured the position of the eye so much that the bureau were reading a very heavy squall embedded in the northern edge of the eye as the eye.
We reported to the bureau when the eye went over us, when they were still telling us it was about 6 hours away.
They later showed us printouts of the radar readings they were working with. They made no bones about getting it wrong, what had misled them, & how they hoped to improve things,
Perhaps the worst thing about being in the eye for 5 hours is the swarms of mozzies & sand flies that swarm all over you.
That one was a real cow. It went inland for a day, then came back out & over us again. We had just cleared hundreds of baby coconuts out of the pool, only to have a new lot added.
I had another in about 85 or 6 which the bureau also got very wrong. Reported at 5.00 AM to be 48 hours away, by 1,00 PM I was steaming into Shute Harbour in a 60 Ft ferry, towing 2, 35 Ft rent yachts, which had also been caught out by the rapid increase in wind, when the eye passed over us with about 70 knots in the wall.
Fortunately that was only a little one, which had sped up very rapidly, which kept the wind speed down a lot, but made prediction virtually impossible.
That one was very dangerous. I had 4 boats still out working in it, & just a few more knots would have made it deadly.
Even with these inaccuracies, the predictions have saved hundreds of lives. It is a real pity they are becoming less trustworthy, particularly in wind speed.
Just for comparison, after Ada, there was not a single leaf on any tree at Happy Bay, on the northern end of Long island. That broke the wind gauge at 142 MPH.
31
This morning in Broome, a small dot on the radar gave us 128mm in a couple of hours. Very little wind, and the region surrounding Broome remained almost dry.
20
Has the propensity to cause a lot of damage if it continues to move so slowly.
31
Debbie was busy before,
Swirling in with a thunderous roar,
In her powerful run,
September ’61,
Causing havoc on Ireland’s west shore.
91
Worst to hit that area since the 70’s I hear.
31
I was in “Althea” in ’71 north of Townsville in my trusty VW Kombi. Category 4. In those years it was common for cyclones to track along the coast as far south as Maryborough. Althea tracked inland and recrossed into the sea near there. I recall the damage on Magnetic Island. No alarmism in those days – nor the bravado. Queenslanders – and Australians in general, were a diffrent lot.If you know what I mean.
62
I reckon the BoM have done it again. Debbie looks more to be a strong 3. Hamilton Is AP is in the “Danger” quadrant yet is reporting 72kn sustained and gusts to 100kn. Centre pressure at 989mb is not a big storm. Sat not showing a very defined eye, yet radar is certainly showing a rain free eye. Why exaggerate the danger? We are being fed the same BS down here in Vic for any fires that are allowed to get going. Not taking away from the size of this storm. Strong winds mean there will be damage, just no devastation like Yazee.
146
Because of our deep distrust of BoM and the media, both propaganda arms of the green blob, I thought there maybe a chance to make a little money at Sportsbet on the intensity. Alas, they are not taking bets on Debbie.
‘There are no active events for your selection’.
73
Totally agree.
The cut-off for the “Severe” category is 970 hPa.
The biggest impact is likely to be from flooding & tidal surges effecting low lying areas.
The mantra from the BoM Tropical Cyclone Trends webpage:
“Potential changes in tropical cyclone occurrence and intensity (a measure of wind speed alone rather than the amount of precipitation or coastal flooding) are discussed in detail in the 2007 report, Climate Change in Australia, Technical Report – Chapter 5: Regional climate change projections (8.9MB) See: Chapter 5.9.1 Severe weather: Tropical cyclones. There is substantial evidence from theory and model experiments that the large-scale environment in which tropical cyclones form and evolve is changing as a result of greenhouse warming. Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections. There remains uncertainty in the future change in tropical cyclone frequency (the number of tropical cyclones in a given period) projected by climate models.
Wind speed is only one aspect of tropical cyclones and their impacts. The amount of heavy precipitation from all weather systems, including tropical cyclones, is likely to increase. Increased rainfall intensity from tropical cyclones is pertinent to Australia, since these storms have historically been associated with major flooding.
Additionally, increases in storm surges and extreme sea-levels are very likely to occur in association with tropical cyclones under future climate change. This change is independent of changes in tropical cyclone intensity and is directly related to increases in global mean sea-level due to global warming.
Projected changes in tropical cyclone characteristics are inherently tied to changes in large-scale patterns such as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation, changes in sea surface temperature and changes in deep convection. As global climate models improve, their simulation of tropical cyclones is expected to improve, thus providing greater certainty in projections of tropical cyclone changes in a warmer world.”
Of particular interest are the comments regarding seal level rise.
Recent data from NOAA PSMSL indicate sea level rises in this area as:
Townsville – 1.4mm per year
Bundaberg – 0.6 mm per year
Brisbane – 0.1mm per year.
Compared to the Global Average of 3.4mm +/- 0.4 mm per year.
33
There is no doubt that Debbie is a Cat 4 cyclone.
22
Is the BoM homogenising cyclone strengths now?
Anyway, they have lost my trust.
To regain my trust they would have to unhomogenise all their data sets and stop promoting the lie of global warming and to send for retraining any of their people that don’t apply the scientific method.
184
All you need to know about cyclone categories.
https://s19.postimg.org/wj1f6q67n/cyc_cats.jpg
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6.00 am we’re safe and sound in Rocky some 400-500 km south. Highest wind gust at Hamilton Island as it was about to go into the eyewall- 189 kmh, highest average 10 minute wind 145 kmh. That is Cat 3. It may go higher and is well and truly strong and dangerous enough, but I can’t see it being Cat 4 or winds of 250 kmh.
225
Wow- a red thumb already. I wonder what for?
113
For doubting the BOM, probably.
52
Meanwhile the morning show celebrities are all competing for ‘Best Live Coverage from a Cyclone Ravaged Area’ Award… again.
152
The presstitutes love a disaster , they will fall over themselves to invade someone’s home as they try to clean up as was witnessed from the last cyclone with Grant Denyer .
If anyone dies as a direct result of the cyclone a bidding war will ensue , if one person dies it will be dozens feared dead etc , etc .
With each media outlet trying to give the bigger figure than the last , no such thing as truth in reporting these days .
52
Somebody died in a car accident near Proserpine last night. According to the OZ local police blamed the cyclone for the death. Sad, I know, but it would appear from this comment that Proserpine has never had rain or fatal car accidents before. Or am I being cynical?
72
I wouldn’t be surprised if TAB is running a book on who will win the cyclone coverage TV ratings.
It is obviously very important to have the intrepid reporters stand in the rain, rather than be in their luxurious accommodation digs.
31
Here’s Hamilton Island Observations:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94368.shtml
This page (scroll down to Central Coast and Whitsundays) will show highest wind gust.
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/observations/qldall.shtml?ref=hdr
Ken
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Our Bureau might just “amend” or lose some of those speeds.Yepoon springs to mind.
23
Article in the Australian today reports University of Melbourne cyclone expert, Associate Professor Kevin Walsh, as saying:
“Climate change is causing the upper troposphere to heat up even more, and so the atmosphere becomes more stable,”
The only so-called evidence I have found for the existence of the upper troposphere hotspot is a paper by Sherwood and Nishant in Environmental Research letters (11 May 2015) which refers to “iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data.”
Itereratively homogenising data sounds like a pretty well-established technique for manufacturing climate change alarmism where no evidence existed previously. Naturally the details of the technique are not revealed so it can’t be tested.
132
Sorry, should have mentioned that the above referenced article was About the Debbie “Monster” and seeking to explain that the norm will become:
“Fewer cyclones, but the ones that do form will be more destructive than ever” with “stronger winds, more ferocious storms and heavier rain.”
101
Narrative similar to:
‘and even the rain that falls will not be enough to fill our dams…’
82
The irony is the alarmists predicted no rain yet more cyclones. How can we have cyclones without rain? Brainless twists the lot of them.
43
If the wind causes the rain to fall at 45 degrees to the horizontal, should we also construct the dams at 45 degrees to the horizontal?
42
Correct me if I am wrong, but I seem to remember in the not so distant past that we were told that storms and cyclones would be on the increase and we would be constantly buffeted by the elements. Then, when it became clear that this had not been the case for the last 20 years or so, the new “certain theory according to all the models” mysteriously claimed that, indeed, there would be fewer storms, cyclones and tornados but, but, but they would be much Stronger. Have I miss-remembered?
51
“(B)asic physics” governed that climate change would increase the intensity of cyclones in the future.
It does not, however, explain this season’s anomaly.
“Being perfectly honest, climate change is a factor in most of our climate science these days but in terms of tropical cyclones you couldn’t put this season down to climate change,” Dr Andrew Watkins the manager of climate prediction services at the bureau, said.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/cyclone-blanche-is-latest-to-cross-land-in-second-consecutive-quiet-season-in-australian-history/news-story/220bd07cbd24d1db32cfd2175d3ec2ac
> > >
“We’ve already been able to show that climate change is already affecting the behaviour of tropical cyclones in Australia,” Professor Nott said.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/cyclone-debbie-biggest-threat-may-come-from-storm-tide-as-tempest-builds-20170326-gv70qb.html
. . .
Explaining how “climate change” can simultaneously deny “basic physics” and and not cause cyclones whilst “climate change” can conform to “basic physics” and cause a cyclone is like seeing Bruce Wayne and Batman in the same room at the same time.
It aint gonna happen.
Undeniably there is nothing carbon (sic) can’t do.
11
Gorgiasl, thanks for spotting that.
Forgive me if you already know all this, it’s a core theme here, and Sherwood a star of creative efforts to find what isn’t there.
The Hot Spot that was supposed to be there is critical to their models. Without it, there is no amplification by water vapor. CO2 on its own, even in their models, only causes 1.2C. They really need this magnifying power of humidity (aka water vapor).
There have been countless creative attempts to find it, like the one you mentioned:
Who needs thermometers? Sherwood finds missing hot spot with homogenized “wind” data.
But they will even resort to tricks with graphs:
Sherwood 2008: Where you can find a hot spot at zero degrees
IPCC also plays hot-spot hidey games in fancy graphs in AR5
Basically 28 million weather balloons spent decades looking for it, but couldn’t find it.
143
Off topic, but for the second night running, the power in Melbourne went off at 3.30am. A small thing. Clocks, timers, alarms, computers. Many things reset. Real climate disaster in Queensland. Man made one just starting in Victoria.
After two decades of incredibly stable power, it is time to break out those Climate Change diesel generators. Charge those bank balances too, as the cost of electricity looks like rising 20%-50%, if the spot price is any indication.
Thanks Malcolm and Daniel. No idea huh? Perhaps launch an inquiry? Pass some laws? Berate the energy operator who is warning of the impending disasters. We can all watch this unfold in slow motion and feign surprise.
Good luck to those in Queensland facing a real natural Climate challenge. Stay safe.
181
It was more than a brief power outage in Melbourne TdeF.Our electricity, in the eastern suburbs, was off from 3.30 to about 8.30 pm. About 600 homes in the Kilsyth,Mooroolbark and Croydon areas were affected at some stage and statewide the count was 20,000 (briefly) according to the Ausnet site. The cause was said to be storm damage and I have no reason to doubt it. It was ironic that Hazelwood was being shut down at the same time.
71
Yeah I am struggling to understand how this cyclone could have happened. Did we not shut down Hazelwood soon enough?
142
Or maybe punishment for shutting down Hazelwood.
10
” … University of Melbourne cyclone expert … ” Says it all.
The real experts are my former colleagues at JCU CTS*. They have to tread carefully of course, but so far they have not been muzzled by JCU. Hopefully they will be out doing their usual postmortem, and in a week or so we will know the actual wind speeds (calculated from bent signage and the like) and later on, what broke (and what should not have broke).
Hamilton is 141/174 km/h so that is Cat 3, but maybe still a long way from the eye-wall. (BoM track map and Satellite viewer are a bit different.)
*James Cook University Cyclone Testing Station.
74
The hiatus in world temperature over the past couple of decades is a clear indication that regional cooling has begun.
Its a chicken and egg thing, but without a doubt its back to the LIA for us.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7485/full/nature12882.html
84
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-213.26,-19.07,3000/loc=148.985,-20.529 Actual winds around the globe. Shows maximum wind strength around 128 kph in the S.W quadrant
52
Ah, models. How I love models.
41
Just goes to prove that even up-to-the-minute models are no match to actual observations. Yet the alarmists use models stretching out for decades to scare the public into a frenzy over coal. It should be a criminal offense and one day I hope it will be.
63
” … Actual winds around the globe … ”
No. Nullschool is quite good, but it is modelling not observation.
I am on the coast about 200km north-west of the centroid of your link. The image says significant winds from the south west should be going over my place, but the reality is an occasional flurry, but mostly calm.
61
Debbie.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13P/imagery/vis-animated.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13P/13P_floater.html
21
Gusts to 196 kmh at Hamilton island 7.00 am.
51
Getting a bit testy.
11
Slow moving too! A worry.
11
Cyclone Debbie, what a lot of piffle. As some have mentioned, barely category 2 at the moment. Get some emergency stuff. clear surrounding areas (projectiles) and stay inside your house during the storm, else go to emergency shelter. This being the standard fair.
If it was me living up there on the coast I would not even bother with all the above shit. (24 hours later). Some emergency stuff maybe. Why am I taking a negative view or 180 degrees turnaround to everyone else? Well I lived through the greatest and best of all the cyclones. Cyclone Tracy.
There were a couple of other cyclones after Tracy, cannot locate the names but when the callout occurred on the first one. I packed all my stuff in the cupboard, but nothing happened. Next one I did not bother about, (in other words if a cyclone hits there is little you can do about it),in fact I was driving around like a teenager getting milk. So the ‘little boy’ who calls wolf continues to this day.
Take care be safe.
Regards
Climate Heretic
PS Sorry for double posting (this appeared in the weekend threaded) However, I would be cautious of cat 4 & 5’s.
55
For clarification this was written at least 24 hours ago when Debbie was only a cat 2. But represent here for context.
Regards
Climate Heretic
25
At 8am the eye was east of Hamilton Island. Highest gust at 7am 196kph. Highest sustained 158kph at 7:20am. It is tracking almost south. Both Proserpine and Hay Point have recorded over 100kph gusts but Mackay is more protected.
These are damaging winds. Any structure not cyclone rated will be damaged.
I still think Hay Point is in its path. Storm surge and wave damage is an issue for the coal terminals. Abbot Point should have missed the worst.
Wind not so strong in SA. Total wind energy 26MW. Importing 681MW (must be near limit). Price reached $205/MWh at 7am.
61
Eye is to the north of Hamilton island, Hamilton is is right in the eyewall, the region of strongest winds, eye is about to go over Hayman Is. Can’t see it heading south towards Mackay.
41
194mm of rain at Strathdickie near Proserpine in the hour to 7:45am.
Wind at Hamilton Island at 8:00 averaged 159 kmh so just at the upper limit of Cat 3. Gusts not as strong as proper Cat 4 so probably borderline strong Cat 3- weak Cat 4. Very dangerous and damaging- glad I’m not there.
51
At 8.15 winds 180 kmh, gusts 222 kmh, have eased a little since but will probably rise again. Hamilton island will be in the eyewall for another hour or two at least as it’s on the southern edge of the eye and Debbie moving at 6 kmh.
11
Latest Weather Observations for Hamilton Island
Gusts reached 222 km/h over there:
28/08:30am 30.2 12.6 30.2 100 0.0 ESE 146 215 79 116 – – 100.8
28/08:27am 30.9 13.1 30.9 100 0.0 ESE 150 215 81 116 975.6 – 100.4
28/08:15am 29.1 4.2 29.1 100 0.0 ESE 180 222 97 120 975.0 – 99.4
28/08:12am 26.1 3.1 26.1 100 0.0 ESE 159 222 86 120 974.7 – 99.0
21
222 – Ok.
BoM’s definition of Cat 4 is 225+ Strongest gust (km/h) so I think they have got this one right. No need for retrospective breakages.
Crunch time. High tide at Abbott Point in 10 minutes, 3.1m, Bowen 21 minutes, 3.22m
Apparently no webcams in that area? Not even a DTMR camera on the Bruce Highway. Nearest one seems to be Burdekin Bridge.
31
Yep, well and truly Cat 4. They got it right. Gusts 232 kmh at 9.30.
41
Gusts 263 at 10:30. I will now be surprised if it doesn’t break 🙂
21
Given Hazelwood shut down and no wind in SA , the cyclone might stretch things out a bit for the AEMO viz all the power outs in Qld they can redirect the power down south to cover the shortfall .
21
So the power is still on in SA – because of a weather event. How ironic!
21
Question,
ABC news reporters, saying most destructive wind is in centre of cyclone. I thought the greatest wind was on the south west quadrant of the eye wall.
Can anyone explain this.
31
The centre of the cyclone, the eye, is calm or with light variable wind and not much rain, and can be 100 km across. The strongest winds are right on the edge of the eye, the “eyewall”. There’s a brief description at the Bureau’s site. It’s like water going down a plug hole but upside down- there’s no water (or wind) in the centre of the plughole.
41
Thanks for that Ken.
30
I made a comment about Cyclone Tracy. It now has disappeared. Can you please tell me what happened to it?
Regards
Climate Heretic
31
Still there. See #24 above. Looks like a typo for your name!
31
Well its good to them back. I do not know what happened.
Regards
Climate Heretic
31
You are in good company.
We have a prime minister and two state premiers who also “do not know what happened”.
41
I thought the science was settled, now there is this uncertainty factor.
‘There is substantial evidence from theory and model experiments that the large-scale environment in which tropical cyclones form and evolve is changing as a result of greenhouse warming. Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections. There remains uncertainty in the future change in tropical cyclone frequency (the number of tropical cyclones in a given period) projected by climate models.’
BoM
34
I thought evidence were facts! I will have to reread my Arthur Conan Doyle books. Here is a Sherlock Holmes quote, which could well apply to global warming:
10
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Market_Notices_and_Events/Power_System_Incident_Reports/2017/Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016.pdf
AEMO report into South Australian blackouts: primary cause = tornadoes..
So, in conclusion, although wind farms reducing power did play a role in the blackouts the primary cause was the tornadoes knocking over transmission lines, and wind power can be part of the solution to stabilising the grid.
“How exactly does wind power stabilise the grid?”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/mar/28/china-extradition-treaty-australia-politics-live
41
Spot on Kevin if wind was the problem and it’s also the answer to the problem it means that logic and science was thrown out in favour of rhetoric and ideology.
Must admit though I expected no less from this report , I don’t know why they even bothered with it.
51
Not directly cyclone related
” Nick Werner
March 27, 2017 at 8:19 am
Excellent observation. Peer review in climate science has become so painstakingly thorough that by the time it’s completed, even the first sentence is wrong.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/27/another-manntastic-claim-extreme-weather-events-linked-to-climate-change-impact-on-the-jet-stream/#comment-2461295
31
Peer Reviewed or Pal reviewed ? That is the question !
Similar to Unfudged Facts and Fudged Facts …..just ask Tony Heller .
31
https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/giss-1981-2002-2014-global.gif
21
another take:
28 Mar: Australian: Michael Owen: ‘Wind farms key’ to SA blackouts
A key report highlights the problems with South Australia’s high level of renewable generation, finding that control settings on wind farm turbines led to last September’s statewide blackout in South Australia.
The fourth and final report by the Australian Energy Market Operator into the September 28 event found wind farm settings “responding to multiple disturbances … led to the Black System”.
AEMO’s chairman Anthony Marxsen will discuss the report’s final recommendations and observations at a Committee for Economic Development of Australia forum in Adelaide today, AEMO will lead a discussion into the future security, sustainability and stability of the National Energy Market in Australia, within ***the increasing role that renewables will play and the growing frequency of extreme weather events.
The discussion will be chaired by respected energy thought leader Tony Wood from the Grattan Institute and feature incoming AEMO chief executive ***Audrey Zibelman along with Steve Masters from ElectraNet and Rob Stobbe from SA Power Networks…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/sa-blackouts-wind-farm-turbines-key-to-power-outages-report-finds/news-story/97967948bbd3f7644451ee02d61b14bf
July 2016: UtilityDive: Evolution of REV: New York PSC Chair ***Audrey Zibelman says 2016 is the year of execution
By Krysti Shallenberger
Those living in New York City at the time will recall the massive blackouts caused by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, two years before the beginning of REV. As cleanup operations concluded, conversations emerged about grid resiliency, and New York officials saw an opportunity to change how the power system worked.
“[We saw] the effects of climate change from Hurricane Sandy and major climatic events … so we’re seeing that change,” Zibelman said…
Earlier this year, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) directed the PSC to enact a Clean Energy Standard aimed at requiring power producers to source 50% of their energy from renewable resources by 2030…
The order dovetailed nicely with REV’s goal to decarbonize the grid, Zibelman told Utility Dive…
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/evolution-of-rev-new-york-psc-chair-audrey-zibelman-says-2016-is-the-year/422684/
31
Hamilton Island 10.30: 183 kmh gusting to 263 kmh for 5 minutes. Seriously strong Cat 4 conditions. BOM predicted up to 270 kmh. Best wishes to all from Carmila to Ayr- and inland.
41
For the life of me I can’t work out why you got a red thumb Ken , perhaps the watermelon troll doesn’t want you to give your best wishes to the cyclone affected .
20
theirABC spin:
28 Mar: ABC: AEMO releases final report into SA blackout, blames wind farm settings for state-wide power failure
By political reporter Nick Harmsen
Overly sensitive protection mechanisms in some South Australian wind farms have been blamed for a catastrophic statewide blackout in September last year by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)…
The report said the unexpected operation of the control settings resulted in the sudden loss of generation from the wind farms.
“Had the generation deficit not occurred, AEMO’s modelling indicates SA would have remained connected to Victoria and the black system would have been avoided,” the report said…
How the weather event tripped the system…
Are wind farms to blame?
It can be argued that the changing nature of the grid, which is seeing wind farms and solar energy replacing traditional thermal generation, did make South Australia more vulnerable to a statewide blackout…
But AEMO also makes it clear the intermittent nature of wind was not to blame…
AEMO said changes made to turbine control settings shortly after the event has removed the risk of recurrence given the same number of disturbances.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-28/wind-farm-settings-to-blame-for-sa-blackout-aemo-says/8389920
31
Good. Let them install even more windmills. And let the Victoria interconnector go offline or the power used domestically in Victoria.
That is the best way to ensure the denouement of this nonsense. Sadly, it will mean a lot of entirely unnecessary hardship in SA.
81
So there will not be another blackout in SA because they have changed the settings on the turbines.
If you believe that get in touch for a fabulous offer, You could become the proud owner of Sydney Harbour Bridge.
50
Precipitation within 3 hours.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-20.48;149.62;6&l=rain-3h
11
The BOM and ABC have an ideology to maintain. Global Warming, and at all costs!
Lying and cheating is the norm for the ABC for many years, and now the BOM is in on it.
I’ve been through cyclones here in North Queensland since the first one I remember, around 1955 or so. I must have been around ten or so. Jeez, they closed the school on the day, and said we could go home. Yay! Day off! We leaned into the wind as we walked or rode our pushies home.
We didn’t know it was coming. We knew when it got here. We knew when it went away.
But a few things I’ve noticed with the dozen or so I’ve been through.
Over the years, the “terror” aspect has increased with the amount of publicity, as TV, Radio and the BOM, compete with each other, to come up with eye-catching headlines and dramatic hyperbole. This, despite the things not getting any more frequent or any more severe.
Another – people nowadays seem to expect that “someone” will look after them, and if not, then “someone” is to blame. I mean, BOM gives me the shits, but the sad fact is that, if they quote wind of 188.89 KPH, and it turns out to be 189.00 KPH, the lunatic twitterati will complain about how badly they’ve been done by, and it was the BOM’s fault their chook house blew down. The real reason the chook house blew down because the white ants all let go hands!
On Monday, there was a galah TV presenter, flew up from Brisbane, and stood on the corner in the main drag in Ayr, going on and on about death and destruction, and his hair wasn’t even being ruffled by the breeze.
OK, nowadays, it’s nice to know they’re coming. Can do a few things, about the yard, and maybe get the little genset ready. A little gas stove is handy. Buy a day or so’s worth of packet soups. But that’s about all really. I see people streaming out of supermarkets with trolleys groaning with loads of batteries, loads of frozen food to stink the place out if/when the power goes off for a couple of days, toilet rolls by the hundred! They buy enough bottled water to take ten baths, when water will be available off the roof when the wind dies down a bit. I dunno. Mass hypnosis, that’s what it is!
People panic, because they are told to panic.
If the wind comes up, and you’ve done your little bit, all there is to do is huddle down and wait. If the house falls down, your neighbors will help, and if you’re out of town, you’re already a bit brighter than the rest when it comes to weather. If you’re worried about being killed in a cyclone, FFS, don’t get in a car ever again! The odds of one to the other are horrendous.
BOM is a real problem. They DO NOT KNOW where it’s going, and they sure as hell won’t admit that, other than put a few “can” “possibly” “may” “could” words in their report. Their reports are heavily biased to their “Global Warming” agenda.
Pollies love cyclones. There is more free camera time with cyclones than any other event.
Oh! Last thing. Pay your own bloody insurance! Don’t come running to me for a handout because, “The victim – unfortunately – wasn’t insured” There’s nothing “unfortunate” about it! It was by choice!
Old mate of mine used to say, “I don’t give to cyclone relief. I pay my own insurance, and I don’t intend to pay theirs too.” Could be considered harsh, but it’s still a valid statement.
Help out, for sure. Help the old couple next door clean up a few branches, but that happens anyway, cyclone or not. DO NOT let anyone like Kevin Rudd near a chain saw, pretending to cut a branch, when the engine is not running. That just leads to insane rages of disbelief and frustration at such stupidity.
61
Loved it. Thanks. So sensible and calm. The only thing as certain as cyclones is that they will end. Maybe they will need all the toilet rolls with the way the BOM tries to scare everyone.
30
Thank you.
I wuz going to comment more, but what can ya say? People like Adam Bandt aren’t on our planet, so ya can’t talk to them.
00
At the same time there is a strong geomagnetic storm (a coronal hole).
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_kp_3d.gif?
21
Debbie slowly moves to the southwest.
21
There is an interesting quirk in the wind data for Hamilton Island.
The BOM reports that at 9:41 the wind was from the ESE as you would expect for a cyclone that is tracking in a westerly direction north of Hamilton Island.
At 9:42 the wind is reported to be from the NW which is inconsistent with the tracked path. At 11:30 the wind is reported to be from the W. There was no temporary drop in wind speeds suggesting that the eye had passed over Hamilton Island.
At 11:30 the wind at Bowen Airport is reported to be 124km from the WSW.
Either this cyclone is not behaving as it should or something is screwy at the BOM.
63
Two things further to my message above.
First, not only is the Hamilton Island wind data seemingly in the wrong direction, the speeds are way out of line with nearby stations. Second, the BOM tracking diagram shows the centre moving well to the north of Hamilton Island.
All very curious.
34
Forrest,
You will find it is a problem with the weather station. Cyclones don’t do that, change wind direction like that in that instance. There were multiple occasions when the gust stayed exactly the same for many minutes on end and in one period for 25 minutes. Doesn’t happen in the real world. I have operated aircraft into Hamilton Island and the wind does funny things up there around all those islands, as well as the fact that the station site is 59 metres AMSL and would be affected by the airflow over the hill. I highly doubt there were gusts to 263 kph with that pressure. Their site at Kurnell NSW in December 2015 when a storm caused some damage there mid morning, showed a gust of 213 k.p.h. for 5 to 10 minutes which was nonsense as I know from first hand experience that the storm could not have produced that sort of wind with the temperature and storm height as described. We will soon see if the damage indicates winds of that strength and it was only for a few minutes. A real Cat 4 or Cat 5 cyclone would have high gusts like that continuously.
52
UPDATE: (active links in the copy of this on the post).
12 noon QLD Time: Hamilton Island is on the edge of the eye right now according to the radar. Latest Observations at Hamilton Island show wind gusts peaked at 263km/hr at 10:30am Qld time. Lowest pressure 961HpA. About 120mm rain recorded in last 24 hours. [Copy of Obs, Copy of Radar.] On the Dvorak scale the cyclone was a 6.5 (8 is Max) but has lost some intensity and is down to 5.4. 947mB, 109.8 kts. [Dvorak copy here].
51
Jo, as I posted earlier it is possible that the Hamilton Island observations are unreliable. Now the 11:55 and 12:00 observations do not show any temperature or humidity data.
43
Hamilton Island is an automatic weather station. Located at 20.37S, 148.95E, which puts it on the headland on the south-west side of the airport. That is consistent with the recorded height of 58.66 m. No wonder it is playing up a bit. I’m surprised it is working at all.
41
Yes Martin. You will probably remember that as Yasi approached the wind speed reported at Willis Island dropped to zero when the weather station went out of action. As a Townsville resident at the time I can tell you that was quite frightening.
I’m familiar with Hamilton Island and its weather station. Looking at the figures for the last 24 hours or so the numbers seem inconsistent with the path of the cyclone. It looks like it had a problem well before the cyclone got close enough to damage it.
53
Another update. At 12:30 the BOM shows wind at Hamilton Island from the SW. Exactly the opposite of where you would expect the wind with the eye now to the NW of the island.
81
It looks to me as if the wind ‘vane’ broke during the peak gust. The anemometer itself seems to be producing believable data, and also there’s pressure and rainfall, but all other obs stopped at 11.53am. remember Hamilton island was in the eyewall and hammered for several hours so it’s surprising that any of it is still working.
51
Could be Ken. The first test will be to see what figures are recorded at Proserpine and what figures are recoded at Hamilton Island as the cyclone moves away.
41
Prossie 167 – 224 kmh at 12.30. That’s Cat 4. Prossie is inland from the coast too.
32
Sorry, that was Hamilton Island. Prossie got to 109 – 165 kmh at 1.00. That is Cat 2 – Cat 3 but Prossie is inland.
30
Yes, it would be interesting to see some figures for Airlie Beach. That is not far from Hamilton Island and appears to be where the eye met the mainland.
31
G’day,
This message from the BOM when I tried to access its 512 km Bowen radar about half an hour ago:
” Bowen radar has suffered damage as a result of TC Debbie. Please access Mackay radar for current radar images. Engineering staff will prioritize repairs when safe access can be gained. ”
It seems to me that BOM has been correct in its estimate of Debbie’s severity, and the ABC tried to hype it to a category 5.
Cheers,
Dave B
21
I’m not so sure about the severity of the cyclone. Apart from Hamilton Island the wind speeds seem consistent with a strong CAT 2 or a weak CAT 3.
That would be consistent with the somewhat poorly defined eye. It would also be consistent with the very limited property damage reported to date.
44
Bowen 96 – 148 kmh for about an hour 1.30 – 2.30. That’s on the northern side. The eye started to collapse as soon as it got over land and is now (3.20) almost gone, so Debbie is rapidly weakening.
41
O/T but interesting election result in Germany
http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/27/germanys-green-party-booted-out-of-govt-in-key-election/
71
Well they appear to be learning from their mistakes albeit not fully as yet….
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/27/germanys-green-party-booted-out-of-govt-in-key-election/#ixzz4caaVNRhe
71
Do you think it could be repeated in Australia over the next year or so ?
30
Only if we have repeated major and catastrophic blackouts in the eastern states due to lack of base load power. Perhaps all we need is one “perfect storm” (not necessarily weather related) whereby the right type and sequence of events causes SA, Victoria AND NSW suffering a blackout at the same time. If that happens and people die as a result then the Greens and their supporters (ALP and LNP) will have blood on their hands.
40
Not so Peter. The greens never have blood on their hands.
Should your hypothetical perfect storm come to pass the greens will simply explain that the world should have listened to them and shut down CO2 emissions earlier.
20
Direction indicator failure, temperature stuff not working. I would have thought the anemometer would go first. The image isn’t brilliant. I don’t think anyone will be going up there to fix it anytime soon.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/15ob1crz60qqk8p/HIWS.jpg?dl=0
32
Have to wonder if a single wind turbine will be left standing in the impact area.
61
How’s this for an idea.
Put up lots of windmills and make them reverse cycle like air conditioning. That way when a cyclone approaches they could be pointed into the wind and turned up to full power.
Not only that but they could be pointed out to sea on hot days to cool the ocean and save the great barrier reef.
31
Probably none, because the subsidy farmers haven’t planted any.
20
Because of its height (59m) and location on the southern tip of the island, the Hamilton Island station is completely unsuitable for proper measurement of wind for the purposes of categorising cyclones etc. It should be ignored.
Have a look at Bowen and Proserpine, and Debbie looks like a Cat 2 only. Don’t be fooled by the biggest “gust” measurement. That is a one-off peak. The “typical gust” measurement (for cyclone categorisation) is somewhere between the one-off peak gust and the sustained wind measurements.
84
The eye has now filled in and disappeared but winds still strong. From now on the main issue will be very heavy rainfall.
60
Here in the Shaky Isles of NZ the media’s breathless hyperbole over Little Debbie is as follows: “The 2017 Cyclone Season Superlative Steeple Chase is about to begin and… they’re racing this time! Leading out of the starting gates is “Biggest” closely followed by “Ever” with “Monster” close behind. “Barrelling Towards The Coast” is in fourth place and “Never Seen Before” is in fifth, while straggling along in the rear is “Who Will Think Of The Children”.
The only ‘reality’ has been a live radio feed to a bloke on the coast who was “having a hoot!” because he loved a little bit of rain and a bit of wind: I’m amazed that titbit got past the censors. And has anyone noticed the REAL monster storm sliding underneath Australia today? HUGE Antarctic swells hammering the south coasts.
Be safe and enjoy the weather.
73
My favourite was a couple of years ago when one of the TV stations had people stationed up and down the coast awaiting the cyclone.
The presenter in Cairns was set against the backdrop of the lagoon pool with the camera looking out to sea. It was raining and a windy enough for the palm trees to be moving around. The presenter was in full flight, conspicuously wet and windblown, saying how bad everything would be. Then a couple of joggers ran across screen behind him.
Thank goodness for the always hysterical media.
70
Now that the cyclone is degrading it is interesting to see that the BOM at 5pm has it classified as category 3. At the same time observations for Proserpine show wind gusts up to 102 Km/h.
Elsewhere on the BOM web site it describes a category 3 cyclone as “Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed. Power failures likely. A Category 3 cyclone’s strongest winds are VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with typical gusts over open flat land of 165 – 224 km/h.”
Not that 102 Km/h wind gusts aren’t bad enough weather, but does anybody care to reconcile these two BOM products?
62
Following on from what Stan said above, yes, Cat 2 to Cat 3. I got caught by the description Hamilton Island “Airport”, and didn’t notice the height until I tried to find it on Google Earth. Duh – interesting only because it wasn’t completely trashed.
So far, no images of real damage. A few images of damage to what is clearly non-complying construction. And large over-mature trees wedged between developments and road frontages or in car parks are a sign of stupidity.
The best information will come from JCU CTS report but that will take a while.
As a council building officer responsible for setting design wind speeds, I was involved in a couple of compliance audits along with CTS, state and federal building codes people, but I doubt this practice was widespread. One media report today did mention the problem of pre-1985 construction.
30
The jet stream will direct Debbie to southeastern Australia.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/03/29/1200Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=129.70,-34.74,596
20
A case of “Debbie Does Dallas”.
31
I see where the Palace Chook has described Cat 3 Debbie as a “one in 100 year event”.
If only Palace Chooks were a one in 100 year event.
101
One ABC reporter said he didn’t think there had ever been a cyclone to hit Proserpine before ! But stopped short of saying it was unprecedented .
10
Uh-oh. So there could be a whole load of non-compliance that will manifest itself 🙁
20
Ada in 1970 hammered Prosperpine, among other towns. As did Ului in 2010.
The feigned surprise over Debbie is pretty lame. Cat 4 Cyclone Mackay in 1918 mangled the sugar town and killed around thirty people. The damage to communications meant that the world didn’t even know it had happened for some days.
Not bad enough?
Less than two months after Mackay, Cat 5 Cyclone Innisfail flattened the town and killed more than a hundred people.
The unofficial motto of the climatariat must be: Meh, Nobody Ever Checks. (Meh, Nemo umquam verificat.)
82
Surplus verbiage. The shorter version is more accurate. “One ABC reporter said he didn’t think”.
30
It is unprecedented, it’s the first one caused by CO2.
10
OT from Canberra, but when even the organisation charged with looking after the poor couldn’t care less about the $200 increase to power bills as long as its from sustainable sources the joke has gone on long enough .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-28/canberra-power-bills-could-increase-by-almost-$200pa/8394344
80
Hazelwood Power Station closure to impact Tasmanian electricity prices
http://www.bombalatimes.com.au/story/4489480/hazelwood-closure-will-cost-tasmanians/?cs=4064
30
I’ve been looking for the damage. Not hard to find, either: tragically, a picket fence blown over, landing at least 300 mm away from its location, several pieces of outdoor furniture scattered like confetti over the lawn and some trees uprooted. And palm fronds, everywhere! A “ship” blown ashore, can’t quite pinpoint its length but somewhere between 10.5 and 10.8 metres. No sign of survivors, although it was nicely upright and it was..about time for lunch.
But there’s an air of sadness, or is it disappointment, as if Debbie has flown the coop; talk about turning a Paleochook into a chicken.
71
The Southern Hemisphere 2016/17 tropical cyclone season remains remarkably quiet. Accumulated Cyclone Energy to date only 20% of normal.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/843638182289653760
This is despite a string of failed predictions, the most recent being the lack of cyclones this year.
Scientists predicted at least 11 cyclones to form in 2016-17 – we’ve only had three.
http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/opinion/are-carbon-emissions-really-causing-coral-bleaching/news-story/0ac8a8ee6e150820bf7aa85fbbc1ba35
43
Forecast Rainfall 28.03.17.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00886/0qnoj1d7vneu.png
30
Tropical cyclones are low pressure systems that form over warm tropical waters and have well defined wind circulations of at least gale force strength (sustained winds of 63 km/h or greater with gusts in excess of 90 km/h).
These maps show the average number of tropical cyclones through the Australian region and surrounding waters in El Niño years, La Niña years, neutral years and using all years of data. The data are based on a 36 year period from the 1969/70 to 2005/06 tropical cyclone season.
The maps are useful for identifying the regions where tropical cyclones are more likely to occur during El Niño years, La Niña years and neutral years. They are also useful for comparing the occurrence of tropical cyclones using all years of data, to the occurrence during La Niña years, for example.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/climatology/tropical_cyclones/tc-lan-years.png
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/averages/tropical-cyclones/
30
Lateline presenter was pushing a professor to say the cyclone was because of climate change and obviously the ABC didn’t do their homework on this guy because he said they just don’t have the data to say it has anything to do with climate change .
The presenter seemed to be a bit taken aback but kept pushing for the right answer but the professor just wouldn’t play ball .
How disappointing for the ABC .
71
I didn’t see it but it sounds like the professor’s blood is worth bottling. How ever did he get a gig on their ABC?
61
Pretty sure that will be his last appearance, as an aside and OT found this fake news this morning on their abc .
I know it’s fake because I have seen these birds in SA two years ago .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-29/sa-holds-worst-extinction-rate-for-native-birds/8394594
10
You can get an idea of wind speeds, including 3 second gusts, from the JCU TCS Swirl Net project in which 5 monitoring stations were deployed in the area to be affected by the cyclone.
30
As of 10pm the BOM shows the centre of the storm over Collinsville marked CAT 2.
Elsewhere the BOM describes CAT 2 as “Minor house damage. Significant damage to signs, trees and caravans. Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure. Small craft may break moorings. A Category 2 cyclone’s strongest winds are DESTRUCTIVE winds with typical gusts over open flat land of 125 – 164 km/h.”
Mission control we have a problem. I look forward to the BOM’s review of its published figures. Perhaps they can even work in reference to the TWIRL figures in post #59.
So what does the BOM do when a real CAT 4 cyclone looms? Call it a CAT 7?
42
“So what does the BOM do when a real CAT 4 cyclone looms?”
If it arrives between Innisfail and Airlie Beach, then a second opinion will be available from JCU CTS SWIRLnet devices. This time they didn’t make it as far as Airlie Beach, but the results are:
Mean 3 sec gust
(Bowen: Cat 2)
Tower 2 62 114
Tower 5 70 125
(Proserpine: Cat 1)
Tower 6 54 96
10
oops tab spacing lost.
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Climate change in the USA takes a different direction
apologies everyone for o/t post …
This week will see the U.S. move in the right direction when it comes to funding Climate change programs and the rescinding of regulations instigated by previous left leaning administrations.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/trump-climate-change-executive-order/index.html
and CNN are doing their best to place this move in a bad light. no change there ! 😮
wishing everyone in the path of “Debbie” well and to keep safe.
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From my sister at Sarina,2:45am, bloody wild, much worse than when it crossedcoast, 150mm of rain in 1 hour.
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2nd message, mate who lives just north of Mackay, lost two trees, area under house full of snakes.
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There are also thunderstorms.
http://pl.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=20
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I am 77 years of age. In my job I attended Cyclone Tracey, Black Saturday and all the other catastrophes between 1967 and 2010. To read reports that “Global Warming” is the cause of weather problems is obscene to me. I understand that the media want to make sure people are aware of the dangers, however the nonsensical coverage in the southern media breaks my heart.
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In Mackay about 30 mm for 3 hours of rain.
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Thunderstorms approach to Brisbane.
https://www.accuweather.com/pl/au/brisbane/24741/satellite/24741
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Cyclones start with a low pressure cell. Krakatau erupted on March17-18. Bagana,(Bougainville) is also active.Volcanism plus axial spin equals cyclone.
Recent flooding in Peru coincides with the eruption of Sabancaya. Volcanic activity is increasing world-wide. More albedo equals COLD.
11
Over Sydney the cool south front can meet with Debbie.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/03/30/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-221.69,-27.64,1192
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Current coverage rainfall in the east of Australia.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
00
The bleary eye of the ex-cyclone Debbie is now over Wivenhoe Dam, looks like it is going to pass south west of Brisbane.
10
D’oh! Nope, I thought I found the eye, but actually the eye was northeast of that.
The eye is right over Brisbane now. Strong winds earlier, now winds dropped, so expecting the change of wind direction in about 40 minutes.
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Whats the score with Flannery and Steffen? They would normally have had their heads on TV by now claiming unprecedented, CO2 caused, extreme weather, new normal, dams will never…oh wait forget that last bit.
10
Interesting to now review the CTS SWIRLnet data, which shows that Debbie was Cat 2 over the mainland. Their report mentions Hamilton Island but discounts that data because of its poor (non Australian standard) siting. The report also states that Debbie was “Category 4” when it made landfall without any discussion of why – this omission is interesting because the data suggests otherwise. (Presumably everyone understands “landfall” to mean hitting the Australia mainland, not an offshore island.)
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