JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
ABC still has people saying the only answer to our energy woes is through renewables.
150
Sorry link to warmist energy company .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-14/energy-australia-boss-worried-about-power-bills/8267070
40
It could be the answer. All we have to do is to expand Box 4, “then a miracle happens”.
90
It’s amazing, they have no answer to the failure part time renewables! When confronted they just keep on about Tesla batteries or hydro storage whatever. No apppreciation of the science or the the mechanics or whatever of the inability of the so called renawables to provide for realistic future energy supplies of this country.
GeoffW
120
Are robots a renewable? See your lawyer &/or: http://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/uk-economic-outlook.html
20
REN
This is the seasonal forecast and already BoM is on a hiding to nothing.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary
90
Elgordo, could it be their crystal ball is tilted to the left .
120
They have a global warming bias and don’t know what’s going on.
121
“could it be their crystal ball is tilted to the left”
If so not a ‘crystal ball’, else parity is cannot be preserved! 🙂
71
Why don’t warmists run?
Because they have crystal balls.
160
Wrong already!!
GeoffW
30
Rainfall in Newy is already 1.5 times the long term average, with maybe more to come.
Temperature basically on long term average.
103
el gordo
Don’t forget that such announcements are made when standing on top of a pile of failed predictions
70
One Nation won three Legislative Council seats at the WA election. Not bad for a so called “failure”. Got more votes than the Greens but the Labor preferences delivered them four seats.
192
43 wind plants in Australia, with 2400 turbines on poles and a Nameplate of 3900MW.
Right now 11.30AM Sunday, every one of those wind plats are generating 350MW of power, at a CF of 8.9%, so around 215 of those 2400 towers actually have the blades turning.
Units 6 and 7 at Hazelwood are generating exactly the same power.
TWO units equalling 43 wind plants.
The average age of those 43 wind plants is around six and a half years. When the first of those large scale wind plants was constructed, Hazelwood was already 40 years old.
My, how technology has advanced. (/sarc)
Tony.
420
Our technology is to get even better , candles , horse drawn ploughs , ice boxes that sort of new high tech stuff . There is a trade off though we will need more candle makers .
140
Bring back the kerosene fridge. Oops!!!! Kerosone is a fossil fuel.
160
They’ll also run on natural gas or propane.
20
The Butcher, the Baker, the Candlestick, makeher; Why can’t I?
112
You CAN’T! Candles (these days) are made from PARAFFIN wax – i.e. from a fossil fuel byproduct! Now, if we covered the world in beehives, we might get enough beeswax to make enough candles to read by…
60
Forget ice boxes – global warming remember?
110
Is that enough power to keep the other 2185 turning?
160
Reminds me of the one they used to have in Newcastle before they removed it to make way for the new coal terminal.
If the was a “Green” event in town, it would be turning, even if it was a totally calm day !
Most of the rest of the time.. not so often. 🙂
164
It is with regret that I have to announce the cancer of wind farms has come to the Wimmera. In the form of Kiata Wind Farm.
A wicked thing that should not have been allowed. The company Windlabs, diligently gave out community grants to local sports clubs etc
thus ensuring there would be little resistance. So much Government money just wasted.
181
Thanks Peter.
I just love it whenever you guys mention a new wind plant here at this site. It gives me a chance to go looking for it, and then tell you how good they are.
This Kiata wind plant will have nine turbines on poles, each one 3.45MW, so 31MW in all.
Each YEAR, yes, each year, this wonderful and exciting new renewable power plant will deliver into the local grid 81,655MWH of clean green electricity.
You know, the same power delivered by that ancient run down relic called Hazelwood in, umm, ….. the last …..
Oh frabjous day! We’re saved.
Tony.
251
Hi Tony,
It’s interesting to highlight the shortfalls of the Kiata Wind Plant when compared with other more reliable forms of energy. I notice that the promoters of wind farms are always keen to tell us some statistic like, ‘Each year this wind farm produces enough electricity to power ‘N’ – a big number – of houses.’
Whether that figure of ‘N’ is the name plate potential, or the actual power produced over a year is also an interesting exercise – as has so often been pointed out on this site as well as others.
But the really interesting statistic that has come into my mind recently when looking at projects like the Kiata Wind Plant is, ‘How many houses could the Kiata Wind Plant supply with electricity continuously over the full period of a year?’ I mean every day of the year, day and night.
The answer just has to be ‘Nil’. There are always major lulls in production from these facilities. No matter what the name plate may say, or what the annual actual gross may be, the fact is that the Kiata Wind Plant cannot even produce enough power to keep one house supplied with electricity for one year. Not one!
This is a fact that the wind power industry never advertises. It is a fact that should be given some prominence.
231
I like to use a “reliability” metric.
“What percentage of nameplate that the source can guarantee to deliver, 95% of the time”
Coal, gas, nuclear would be up above 80%.
I did the calculation on all of UK wind once, 10 minute values for a month, and came to the value of about 4-5% of nameplate.
Solar has a “reliability” value of ZERO.
62
Tony,
Where do you get the current performance numbers for the various plants and windmills from?
Thanks.
BTW, here are the current and past charts for Germany:
Electricity production in Germany in week 12 2017
30
The interesting point to note from those visuals, is the amount of power being shared across Europe. German energy production is held up as an example of what could be achieved in Australia, but when you look at the graphics, you find that Germany is importing power from other parts of Europe, just to balance its demand load.
Where can Australia get spinning reserve from? PNG?
Next week in Australian politics: Turnbull proposes a trans-Tasman power cable to utilise New Zealand’s hydro generation resources.
It is beyond satire.
70
Anton, can you please become the advisor????? I’m sure you are needed.
20
At that rate 350/2400 = .14 win(useless)mills per MW, pretty good value for money!!
20
I’d like to repeat here my point that the War on Coal is leaving Australia open to oil shocks, which always come. Since wind + solar = gas + diesel, and since we have no nuclear power industry despite our uranium and our geological stability, an oil price/supply shock would leave Australia utterly exposed.
The oil (and thus gas) price is considered due for long term stagnation and there are good arguments why this may be so. But can a coal/nuke free Australia take such a risk? And since coal is Big Oil’s main competitor globally – which is why Big Oil contributes so much to Big Green – eliminating coal from the energy mix puts upward price pressure on all other hydrocarbons. In the 70s we queued for petrol, but the power generation went on the same. Not so when the stuff you put in your car is needed to turn on the lights.
Just think: utter dependence on gas and diesel for all power generation…then the price jumps, as it always eventually does. The power from “renewables” is already hyper-expensive. Add to that a soaring oil price, and no means to buy in power the way Europeans can do with their tangle of nukes, hydro, coal, Russian and Scando oil/gas, biomass, whirlygigs, solar etc etc…
Well? What would become of us? I’m aware of proposals to sequester reserves of gas for the domestic market and I guess a socialist solution is better than no solution. But which Goldman Sachs alumnus PM or premier, however leftist, would consent to this violation of “the market”? Plus, we know it takes forever to build a canoe in South Australia, so with what kind of speed could nukes and gas gen be brought on line when the blackouts start? (Think NBN!)
Lucky for our Green Betters that we still have lots of coal exports to pay for their War on Coal.
350
Valid points moso. To me the ideal energy policy is one with no subsidies and as wide a range of input types possible. Coal and nukes are oblivious baseload masters, the rest will have their place as the situation demands. Diversity of supply will promote security of supply.
140
RobK, here we are talking about prices soaring, but imagine if supply was the issue. While coal power is available, you keep going, with strict rationing of what liquid fuels you can obtain, as in war. But how do you handle no coal and no supply of oil/gas? Along with a Tassie drought? Perhaps South Australia could give us a demo by going totally self-sufficient for a month. I imagine TonyfromOz could give us some delicious commentary on that situation.
My guess is that there is no time to build nukes and no will or time to modernise coal, so panic construction of gas power stations needs to start now on a very large scale. Which is not happening.
It’s not likely that repressive Oman will be allowed its “Arab Spring” or “Colour Revolution” by the people who manipulate these things. Yet when you consider the present situation of the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Cold War with the Saudis and the possibility of hot war with NATO, the mere thought of instability anywhere else in the Gulf could send a good old fashioned 70s oil shock right around the globe. An actual blockage of the Strait would be felt within a day.
We are sitting on centuries supply of premium Permian Black and god-knows-how-much uranium…and here we are talking about how we’re going to power our nation with strategically volatile imports, medieval tech and the Musik Man’s batteries. Funny times, which could turn sad.
210
mosomoso,
Don’t forget Thorium.
Australia has the LARGEST deposits of Thorium in the world – See here
I guess that wouldn’t be OK with the Greens though either. OK to send our deposits of coal and uranium etc overseas for other countries to use but BEGGAR Australia!
These communist greens need a GRAND “awakening”
Cheers,
110
Is Thorium what Wasps have decorating their Thorax?
Grin.. finger in ear!
71
Thorium/(nuclear) is the power source which has yet to make public known how much heavy metal and other processing pollution that will accumulate in tailings dams mythically built to last forever. How many trillions of tons of sulphuric acid and the like is needed to process thorium into usable poison is the stuff of the twilight zone.
The naiveté of thinking all that needs to be of concern is meltdown is hard to describe. What a demographic…*sigh*
32
Environment Skeptic
You sound to me very much like a “warming worrier”!!
You need to learn a LOT more about thorium BEFORE you start typing.
Try this for starters: Sunniva Rose
BTW – I’m thinking she knows a WHOLE LOT MORE THAN YOU – after all she IS a nuclear scientist which i very much doubt you judging by what you’ve written.
Granted, there is a way to go BUT heavy metal, tailings, sulphuric acid etc etc etc – mmmmmm – listen, read up and learn.
Cheers,
20
And yet, ES, here you are causing “heavy metal and other processing pollution that will accumulate in tailings dams mythically built to last forever.”
For, “[h]ow many trillions of tons of sulphuric acid and the like is needed to process” the ‘rare earth’ minerals that are used in providing the Internet and your access to it?
Paper & blood, and pigeons. The communication choice of the Environmentally Aware.
40
Power just went out for a few secs then came back on again , are they softening us up for a couple of days time .
110
So, the USA is basically a police state run by the IC:
Freedom Watch Notifies US Congress of “Deep State” Intelligence Whistle-Blower
Freedom Watch notifies congress of a “Deep State” intelligence community whistle blower, Dennis Montgomery, with hundreds of millions of documents showing CIA and FBI and Intelligence Committees were spying on, and conducting surveillance on, American citizens for political purposes.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/03/22/freedom-watch-notifies-congress-of-deep-state-intelligence-whistle-blower-full-pdf/
#thehammer
131
Has anybody seen or heard whether there’s been a response to Lamar Smith’s letter to NOAA of 14 February 2017?
https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/02.14.17%20SST%20Letter%20to%20Acting%20Administrator%20Friedman.pdf
60
Not yet
20
The Russians are leading the charge, global cooling ahead because of a quiet sun and low cloud cover.
http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/23/russian-scientists-dismiss-co2-forcing-predict-decades-of-cooling-connect-cosmic-ray-flux-to-climate/#sthash.NOfdIci8.dpbs
141
One of the funniest take outs with respect to electrical power availability for me was in the aftermath after Cyclone Marcia here in Rockhampton.
Blink. Power goes out on Friday around 10.30AM.
The serious take out was late on the Saturday afternoon, I went looking for bread, and I got some at Woolies in our local huge mall at Stockland, which had all the underground car park entrances locked up tight. I cruised around the complex and found one small entrance open, and an exhausted young Woolies employee finishing up for the day, walking out. I asked him if Woolies was open, and he said it was, just.
I went inside and Woolies was the only place open. I found a loaf of bread, and there would only have been three customers in the whole supermarket, well and truly outnumbered by employees. I knew one of the supervisors, and I asked her how long they had been open, and she told me they started with a skeleton staff at 9AM, after the Mall’s auxilliary power was manually started, the automatic startup failing when the power did the day before. I asked her what they were doing, and she told me that the staff had spent all day unloading every cold and cool storage, and tossing all the contents in the huge skip bins out the back, and that was ALL of it, perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of stock, all tossed out. The same applied also for the Coles in the Mall as well.
That is the result of any power blackout, and perhaps even a load shedding situation, hence the reason that when it comes to load shedding, they first drop out all the areas they can find that are solely residential.
The funny take out for me happened on the Tuesday, mid afternoon. Barbara and I had enough of the heat, and wanted to spend just a couple of hours in some place cool, so we went to the Mall, to our usual Coffee Kiosk, and got a flat white each, and sat in the cool. Behind us was the Food Court, absolutely jam packed solid with people. The Maccas and KFC outlets had five queues at each counter with the lines around ten people long. There was not a spare seat in the house.
However, virtually everyone had their mobile phones, pads, and laptops, all charging on every available power point with some of them attached to power boards with more outlets, and lines at each power point of people waiting to charge their devices.
To stay in the cool, we walked around the Mall, and every second shop had a hand written sign on the window, inviting people to come in and use their power points to charge their devices.
They were even lined up at the power points in the toilets.
As we left after a couple of hours, people were still literally streaming in, all of them with devices and leads to charge them.
It was the funniest thing I had seen for ages.
Take away power for days at a time, and people will panic without their devices, oh, and their fast food too.
And batteries. Not one to find anywhere. Except for one particular battery, the one I got hold of on the Thursday night prior to the Cyclone hitting on the Friday. A Dolphin Battery to fit our Dolphin torch, which incidentally finally went flat the night before the power came on, a week later. In Woolworths those batteries were still on the same rack where I got mine, they were still on special, and only one more was sold in the time since I had purchased mine. Other batteries, nowhere in sight. Just rows of empty shelving where they once were.
Tony.
151
TonyfromOz,
Your comments prod me to say to all who read here:
A couple of years back on the site “Musings from the Chiefio”, E. M. Smith had a couple of posts up regarding preparing for a disaster. Mostly he was thinking of something more than the power going off.
His posts and the comments alerted me to a few things I hadn’t thought of but spare batteries was not one of them. We have extras, several flash-lights, candles, and matches. Our cars now have chargers for cell phones and such devices, so not a problem either.
We keep filtered and/or distilled water in plastic bottles that would last a week – drinking and cooking. I have 2 liter plastic bottles of water in the freezer. (We live in a rural area and so have extra storage capacity.) The ice will help keep everything in good shape for a day or more. Commercial food stores my have safety rules about how long power can be off before stuff has to go. That may be just minutes for un-cooked meat.
We have a small stream about 50 m. from the house and so can get buckets of water for flushing, or whatever, that does not require potable water.
We have friends that are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints [Mormons]. Most of them try to maintain a 3 month supply of food for normal use and then other long term things, such as beans, sugar, flour and canned food. We fail their standards!
If the folks in Australia are paying attention, they should be thinking along these lines. Too many people think some official agency will come when needed. In a serious situation that won’t happen. Expect to be able to take care of yourself for at least 3 or 4 days, or suffer the consequences.
[For another time — people also should have a “grab & go” bag.]
121
A “grab & go” bag can be purchased, or make your own.
Here is one:
https://www.redcrossstore.org/item/321405/
70
Thanks John,
It always amazes me how the brain works, and when the time comes, you always remember things which can assist you when something like this happens.
We survived our own Cyclone, and in fact did it with relative ease really.
Luckily, I contribute to my home site, so it was an easy thing to document, after the event.
Those Posts are at the following link, where there are links to all the Posts in the Series.
Cyclone Marcia – Rockhampton Queensland Australia (With Updates)
Tony.
91
Another cyclone possibility on the way Tony.
Make sure you have plenty of cash, because ATM’s will not work, nor will credit cards and you might just need some petrol, bread, milk, etc.
Nothing like a blackout in our mainly cashless society – just ask the folk of SA and ask the same of the Vic folk in about 6 months time.
40
Tony I still vividly remember this;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-Day_Week
Also, local load shedding for several hours with little or no notice was frequent. It is worth noting that, with intermittent power such pre-planning is impossible and anyway,
such is the integration of power with almost all logistic activity, catastrophic damage begins immediately, as you witnessed.
Scroll down to;
” The strike began officially on 5 February and, two days later, Heath called the February 1974 general election while the three-day week was in force. His government emphasised the pay dispute with the miners and used the slogan “Who governs Britain?”. Heath believed that the public sided with the Conservatives on the issues of strikes and union power.[7]”
The answer he got to “Who governs Britain?” was “It’s no you – I’ll tell you that”.
Perhaps your current drongos need a history lesson.
40
It has been calculated a couple of years ago that around 10% of the World’s electrical power is now used to power the global communications system.
I come back to one of my very recent arguments;
We have an entire generation in the western nations and increasingly in many developing nations amongst the elites that have enjoyed utterly reliable, generally cheap. very stable electrical power throughout their entire lives.
They cannot comprehend of a situation that they have never experienced before where that always there, ever reliable electrical power that their entire lives and their businesses and their social interactions revolve around and are now so completely dependent on becomes a completely unpredictable, frequently rationed, very expensive necessity whose supply to the public is completely at the whims of politicians and the greens and wind and sunlight.
And all created from a complete scientific farce and fr**d where a very tiny handful of highly corrupt status and power hungry climate scientists using, not real time observations from the world around us but using some unverified unvalidated climate models whose programs were loaded with data that was even then and more so now, was known to be grossly deficient in its accuracy, all to come up with a cult like catastrophic scenario where the world was going to hell in a hot house because of an increase of 30% in an atmospheric gas CO2 over a most of a century, a gas that comprises no more than a minute .04% by volume of the global atmosphere.
And they then used the prestige of science to cloak their own now well known scientific and gross moral and ethical inadequacies and gross ignorance and arrogance as purported scientists to convince the politicians and the elites in academia and the media that the world’s climate was and would be being destroyed by mankind if this very minor and essential to all life gas was allowed to increase any further .
And that those scientists claimed would be the fate of the world unless the world bowed its knee and kow-towed to the vastly superior knowledge and intellect of those same scientists and accepted their demands for the power and influence and implemented their entirely spurious nostrums and climate fixes as derived from their utterly inept and completely spurious programmed climate model.
And so at the say so of that handful of extremely arrogant and mostly inept and ofttimes very ignorant climate scientists and their convincing of the political apparatus of their cult like beliefs in the power of a minor atmospheric gas to destroy the global climate, we have instead seen and are experiencing the destruction of the energy sources, the national electrical energy generating systems that through theitr reliability and stability and cheapness of the energy provided has over the last century and half lifted hundreds of millions of humanity to a quality of life at a level our race has never ever experienced before in its entire existence.
And that energy was so reliable and so cheap that its extraordinary benefits even extended down to the lowest status individuals in our society.
All now being dstroyed because of nothing more than the unproven theories and opinions of a few dozen arrogant, inept,compassionless , lying in that they NEVER mention their error bars in the science they are claiming proves their case and when making and promoting their increasingly non scientific ideologically biased statements to the media and to political practitioners who trust science h to lift us out of the mire of a short, nasty, brutish life that was humanities lot before electrical power became mankind’s great universal driver to a better future.
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Oops! got caught; Bit quick with that “Post Comment” button
20
Last para replacement comment #10.3
.
All now being destroyed because of nothing more than the unproven theories and opinions of a few dozen arrogant, inept, compassionless, lying in that they NEVER mention their error bars in the science they are claiming proves their case and when making and promoting their increasingly non scientific ideologically biased statements to the media and to political practitioners who implicitly trusted science and scientists.
On nothing more than that scientific advice from that handful of power hungry , status seeking purported to be climate scientists, [ a lot are definitely not scientists with any physical background but pass themselves off as scientists with a climate science background. eg; Flannery, possibly bordering on a f***dulent claiming of qualifications ] the politicals are now destroying the national electrical generation systems that over the last century have lifted hundreds of millions of mankind in many nations out of the mire of a short, nasty, brutish life that was humanity’s lot before electrical power became mankind’s great universal driver to a better future.
40
Attended the Dr Karl for Kids farc..I mean show yesterday Here is a link describing the show.
Not sure what he was aiming at talking about except he wanted mostly to talk about the ‘up yours’ symbol. History buffs would probably be a little upset with his take on the British archers shooting arrows through the French armour at the battle of Agincourt.
Anyway, Q & A was after his presentation…. first two questions were about the ( I suppose) main topic he spoke about. He then prompted that questions need not be asked specifically about what he spoke about, but anything in science.
Next a girl asked a question, she barely started asking the question before stumbling, fear not Karl prompted her with the next few words and she finished her question flawlessly, like she has rehearsed it. Not to be outdone, Dr Karl, who seemed like he was waiting for this exact question launched into how it is undeniable and how bad it all is.
The topic? Global Warming, specifically that evil CO2 molecule. He then went on to say we can setup our entire power grid with renewables. The cost would be something in the order of 1/10th the cost of setting up other power sources and everything else is FREE.
Pity I couldn’t find a video of the whole thing I saw. My wife dragged our extremely bored 7yr old out on that question so I couldn’t see any more of the kum ba yah experience.
I think he successfully said ‘up yours’ to science with that performance.
70
Bit of weather moving in?
http://eldoradocountyweather.com/satellite/ssec/australia/color/color-ir.php
Too bad Australia isn’t a big country, otherwise it wouldn’t be destroyed by weather every other Sunday.
http://eldoradocountyweather.com/satellite/ssec/australia/australia-9hr-ir-sat-loop.php
51
/sarcastration
40
@clipe if you mean Cyclone Debbie, here’s an image that is a bit more informative. Current track mapping image underlaying a CAD drawing of mine.
The objective was to place the affected area in relation to weather stations with anemometers, especially ones off shore, so I can get the readings before there is any possibility of “adjustments” after the event, such as happened with Cyclone Marcia last year.
I’m about 20km NE of Townsville, so I’m hoping the track is maintained. As these things rotate clockwise, it much better to be on the north side of landfall rather than south of it.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/l5czk7i94bww5p7/debbietrackingmap06.pdf?dl=0
70
I posted this on the previous thread but I don’t believe many will see it now so reposting here:
I think it is immoral for people to make money soley on the basis of a government granted monopoly or subsidy where the laws of the free market are not allowed to apply.
Windmills are a classic example and make staggering amounts of money for their owners (elites including unions) for a useless product at the expense of the worki
180
David, it’s not just the carpetbaggers who flog the whirlygigs. I can vouch that the landholders and communities made rich through the huge rollout of Spanish windpower are now bitterly resented by much of the rest of the population. (By the way, people talk of the intrusiveness of wind turbines, but the endless cabling across the Spanish countryside is the real eyesore. My God that junk needs a lot of cabling.)
120
Denial ain’t a river in Egypt – is it?
30
My copy and paste was truncated.
It was meant to finish:
“working and middle classes.”
50
South Australia wants renewables all the way,
No matter what the cost or who will pay.
The white coats should ask global warmists why,
They can’t accept that skeptics don’t deny.
The warmists want a massive overspend,
On climate, which the skeptics want to end.
The Hazelwood old coal plant hour by hour,
Can out do all the wind-turbines for power.
It must be true that money grows on trees,
With their carbon credits paid in massive fees.
170
one down 7 to go:
D,DISPATCH,UNIT_SCADA,1,”2017/03/27 08:00:00″,HWPS1,149
D,DISPATCH,UNIT_SCADA,1,”2017/03/27 08:00:00″,HWPS2,148
D,DISPATCH,UNIT_SCADA,1,”2017/03/27 08:00:00″,HWPS3,170
D,DISPATCH,UNIT_SCADA,1,”2017/03/27 08:00:00″,HWPS4,162
D,DISPATCH,UNIT_SCADA,1,”2017/03/27 08:00:00″,HWPS5,174
D,DISPATCH,UNIT_SCADA,1,”2017/03/27 08:00:00″,HWPS6,171
D,DISPATCH,UNIT_SCADA,1,”2017/03/27 08:00:00″,HWPS7,178
D,DISPATCH,UNIT_SCADA,1,”2017/03/27 08:00:00″,HWPS8,0
SA wholesale price over $300/MWh on Sunday afternoon!!!
26/03/2017 13:00 $328.39 1,493.72 1,002.07 175.75 -311.02 Actual
26/03/2017 13:30 $297.22 1,541.99 1,006.48 186.69 -343.13 Actual
Thursday and Friday this week will be interesting.
Meanwhile the polies cannot see the connection between closing down coal plants and skyrocketing electricity prices so the competition watchdog is being called in:
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/pm-asks-watchdog-to-review-power-prices/news-story/9d35e223a12680f61beeaef3c5871de4
20
Oh sure . .
If that were true, Malcolm would ditch the RET.
20
I am in New York City now, Manhattan, Upper West Side.
This place is cold in winter, hot in summer and requires staggering amounts of energy to run and to cool in summer and warm in winter, not to mention the huge amounts of liquid fossil fuels required to keep the city running (eg road transport, garbage collection, snow clearing operations etc) plus reliable and cheap electrical energy for all the usual things plus subway.
Only an uneducated fool could possibly think that you can run a place like this on unrealiable and expensive windmills and solar.
You need cheap, reliable coal, gas, hydro and nuclear power and lots of it. Even anti-American Marxist Obama couldn’t destroy that despite his best efforts (he may have been ok with old hydro but not new plant).
174
Just in midtown Manhattan alone, that area consumes more power than the whole of the State of South Australia.
That of itself is the most stark example of the power consumption of skyscrapers, virtually all of it those units on the roof which supply conditioned breathing air into those buildings.
Tony.
160
Hey Tony, I think you are under estimating that a bit. Manhattan has an area of 22 square miles and has a population of 12 million. Don’t know what the figures are, but there is some pretty big power plants over on the east side and a few over in Jersey City.
31
As I mentioned, here it is just ….. Midtown Manhattan, just that area starting at Central Park, and down to where Midtown South starts. (so, from Central Park South (59th St.) down to 34th St, and as wide as the Island, although eastern and western suburbs use different names, Clinton and Turtle Bay.) After 34th St. it becomes Midtown South, so the area I was referring to is just that Midtown area.
Tony.
40
Hi Tony, The point I was trying to make was not many Australians realize how big NYC is. I agree, Down Town would easily use as much as SA, let alone the rest. Believe me, I know NYC fairly well and one crazy enough to drive into the city. Fortunately, when I’m there I have my own parking place otherwise it would be the subway for sure.
30
Not many Yanks realize that there are at least 20 cities in the world which are larger than NY.
I have spent a stack of time in the USA and remain astonished at how little the Yanks know about the “outside world”.
Not too many realize that Moscow and St Petersburg are now far nicer (and safer) cities than any USA cities.
10
Reminds me of this photographic work by Oleg Ponomarev, who assembled a collection of x-ray images of bags taken on the St Petersburg metro system.
Complete tangent to the topic at hand? Yes. Interesting? Maybe.
10
Oh, Tony, I have a photo of a smallish steam turbine and generator with the top covers off. It was installed in the Australian Paper Mill in Brisbane in the 1950’s. I would like to send it to you, maybe go into a collection if you have one.
Let me know and I’ll put up my email. I have my own domain and can easily handle junk mail and spam.
20
Back in 1965 Con Ed commissioned “Big Allis”.
AT 1,000 MW, she was one big turbine for its day, one of a few Allis-Chalmers machines.
The site in Queens produces 2500 MW.
20
And then Alils Chalmers, one of the largest industrial and manufacturing corporations on the planet at that time and a major manufacturer of farm machinery, heavy industrial machinery, large scale electrical generating equipment as in Rod’s post above , went on to attempting to build a fluidised bed for coal burning boilers in the very large generating plants.
The AC engineers had perfected the fluidised coal burning bed in the small scale laboratory set up but when they attempted to upscale it to a commercial system the air flows under and through the moving mass of near suspended tens of tonnes of very fine coal as it moved on its moving mesh support through the fire boxes of the boilers, became very unstable.
So hot spots developed along with cold spots, hot and cold being relative when temperatures are running in the many hundreds of degrees , leading to massive failures of the fluidised bed components and possible damage to the boilers.
[ I have had some experience with a very simple form of a fluidised bed system on a VERY small scale where it is used in what is known as a Gravity Table in the seed cleaning business, a seed cleaning business that we built and owned for a number of years in the 1980’s.
And believe me if that air flow under that simple to look at fluidised bed type system gets unstable, your quality of clean seed from the table goes to hell in a bread basket real quick. ]
Multiply it up to a system that has a moving bed a few tens of metres long and many metres wide and put a few tonnes of very fine powered coal that is suspended just above the moving bed in the super hot airstream from under and through the bed in the few hundred degrees heated airflow, the whole of the suspended coal burning at a thousand degrees or so on top of the bed and just thinking of potential air flow instabilities makes the eyes water and the sweat start running at the thought of it going just a bit wrong.
The AC board of the times spent a Billion of those late 1960, early 1970’s dollars on trying to perfect the coal burning fluidised bed system which promised huge increases in burning efficiencies and fuel usage of the big electrical generators for the times.
They failed and AC was saddled with a huge debt that they could never recover from leading to the breaking up and demise of the AC name in the very early 1980’s.
Subsequently the German agricultural and industrial engineering firm Deutz, brought a good part of AC’s farm equipment and industrial engineering .
Deutz soon afterwards got involved with the financial bubble of 1987 and at one point was making more profits from its involvement in the financial bubble of that time than they were from the rest of their industrial and manufacturing empire.
On Monday Oct 1987, the stock market fell nearly 23% and wiped out Deutz and many other major manufacturing outfits that were playing the bubble as well as a number of banks and financial companies who had been playing in the pig pen of the big money market.
So if you have just blown a few bucks on the lotteries without any wins, you aren’t on your own!
10
From memory only so I might get corrected here;
I think the “Big A” generator that Rod refers to above was the first “nitrogen cooled” large scale power generator.
10
Hydrogen is so effective in limiting the windage loss as the rotor turns in the armature that it has been around since the thirties, when machines larger than 100 MW became prominent. Having said that, some alternators manufactured today below about 200 MW capacity use air. The extra expense of seals, pressurisation, and monitoring equipment for the hydrogen becomes economic at about that size.
20
How ’bout Wall Street?
Those banks of servers (or whatever) that they put as close to the floor as possible for instant light speed trading.
I’m sure those guys are sensitive about energy use.
Forget the Anthropocene.
It’s the Hypocricene.
30
As I type this I see I got one Red Thumb. No doubt more will follow.
So, Red Thumb, are you seriously telling me that a place like New York City, which was built largely by capitalism, could have been created and can be run with your soul destroying and civilisation destroying Marxist windmills and solar panels?
Please provide scientific and engineering analysis for your “logic”.
203
It’s not a red thumb its an auto-troll award powered by wind power and unicorn sh|t — each one is worth 1.5 green thumbs, or twice that if the auto-troll is so rectally challenged they fail to comment.
133
Hey Dave, If you are driving and need to get away from the crowds for a bit, drive over to Liberty Park in Jersey City. Great views of ‘The Battery’ across the river, the ‘Statue’, and the ‘Open Sky Memorial’ for 9/11. Very quiet by comparison. Driving through the Holland Tunnel was an experience.
OH, and go for a drive over the Verezzano-Narrows Bridge, was the biggest in the world and not many bigger now. And take the upper level for the view. You’ll need an ‘Ez-Pass’, $4.00 over and back !
20
Yes and the green mob know full well our economy would fall apart if it had to run on the joke that is renewables…..
20
25 Mar: Tulsa World: D.C. Report: Sen. Jim Inhofe says climate change extremists ‘are not going to give up’
By Randy Krehbiel
Changing climate: U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe told a conservative conference “(Barack) Obama’s war on fossil fuels is temporarily over,” but warned climate change deniers to be “vigilant” because the former president “built a culture of radical alarmists.”
“Liberal extremists are not going to give up,” Inhofe said during a presentation at the Heartland Institute International Conference on Climate Change…
Elsewhere, the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, whose members include Oklahoma Congressmen Jim Bridenstine and Frank Lucas, has scheduled a hearing for Wednesday that is expected to be an attack on climate science.
Chairman Lamar Smith of Texas is one of Congress’ most vehement critics of climate change science, and has invited a number of similarly minded witnesses. Michael Mann, a champion of more extreme climate change implications, is also scheduled to appear.
Lucas is vice chairman of the committee…
http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepagelatest/d-c-report-sen-jim-inhofe-says-climate-change-extremists/article_4ad3db68-c3fd-5e10-97b8-c6872c3fd4bc.html
31
The Troll song; (appropriate mental age ready).
The sceptics are always wrong
This I know,
For the ABC tells me so.
Our little minds to them belong
Ours are weak but the ABC is strong
So we join the brainwashed throng.
Yes the ABC guides me
Oh, yes the ABC guides me
Yes the ABC guides me, other trolls tell me so.
The sceptics are always wrong
This I know,
For the ABC tells me so.
I never admit they are wrong,
like all the brainwashed throng.
Yes the ABC guides me
Oh, yes the ABC guides me
Yes the ABC guides me, other trolls tell me so.
The sceptics are always wrong
This I know,
For the ABC tells me so.
Paying them my wage away
To always guide me I pay & pay.
Yes the ABC guides me
Oh, yes the ABC guides me
Yes the ABC guides me, other trolls tell me so.
170
24 Mar: Science Mag: Lamar Smith, unbound, lays out political strategy at climate doubters’ conference
By Jeffrey Mervis
“Next week we’re going to have a hearing on our favorite subject of climate change and also on the scientific method, which has been repeatedly ignored by the so-called self-professed climate scientists,” Smith told the Heartland Institute’s 12th annual conference on climate change in Washington, D.C. The audience cheered loudly as Smith read the names of three witnesses—climate scientist Judith Curry, who recently retired from the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta; policy specialist Roger Pielke, Jr. of the University of Colorado in Boulder; and John Christy, a professor of earth system science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville—he expects to support his view that climate change is a politically driven fabrication and that taking steps to mitigate its impact will harm the U.S. economy.
Then boos filled the ballroom of the Grand Hyatt hotel in downtown Washington, D.C., after Smith mentioned the fourth witness—Michael Mann, a climate researcher at Pennsylvania State University in State College and a frequent target of climate change doubters. “That’s why this hearing is going to be so much fun,” Smith said with a huge grin on his normally impassive face…
“I applaud you for saying you’ll be using the term climate studies, not climate science,” said one audience member. His reference was to Smith’s embrace of a distinction made by a previous speaker, climatologist Patrick Michaels of the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., who argues that most climate scientists don’t deserve to be called “scientists” because they have manipulated their data and ignored contrary results. “But I also urge you to use the term politically correct science.”
“Good point,” Smith replied. “And I’ll start using those words if you’ll start using two words for me. The first is never, ever use the word progressive. Instead, use the word liberal. The second is never use the word ‘mainstream’ media, because they aren’t. Use ‘liberal’ media. Is that a deal?”…READ ON
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/lamar-smith-unbound-lays-out-political-strategy-climate-doubters-conference
51
Committee on Science, Space & Technology: Chairman, Lamar Smith
Full Committee Hearing- Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method
Date: Wednesday, March 29, 2017 – 10:00am
Location: 2318 Rayburn House Office Building
Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method
Dr. Judith Curry, Dr. John Christy, Dr. Michael Mann, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr
https://science.house.gov/legislation/hearings/full-committee-hearing-climate-science-assumptions-policy-implications-and
41
Thanks Pat.
Perhaps we’ll get an answer to my #8 above at that Committee meeting.
10
This deserves a lot of attention. It will be an interesting spectacle.
10
Cramer is ONE of Trump’s energy advisors, and a long-time, strident CAGW sceptic. no telling why he pulls this stunt.
someone on the Believer side suggests it’s a Bannon tactic! fake news?
the thing is, if it takes four years to get out of “Paris”, it matters little whether or not Trump begins that process, when he can simply ignore it:
24 Mar: E&E News: Jean Chemnick: GOP movement to stay in Paris accelerates
(Reporter Kavya Balaraman contributed)
A House ally of President Trump circulated a “Dear Colleague” letter (LINK) to the president yesterday challenging him to make the Paris Agreement a better deal for U.S. fossil fuels.
North Dakota Republican Rep. and Trump adviser Kevin Cramer’s letter proposed “conditions” for remaining within the landmark 2015 climate deal, including swapping weaker emissions and aid commitments for more power over the process…
Cramer’s staff did not respond to inquiries about support for his letter. The office of Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.), an outspoken opponent of climate action, said the congressman did not have plans to sign…
But some GOP opponents say remaining in the deal would run counter to everything Trump has done since assuming office on Jan. 20. That includes last week’s budget, which would kill funding for climate change across a host of federal agencies.
“The entire administration budget proposal was a pretty big middle finger to the idea of Paris, the [Green Climate Fund], etc.,” said Mike McKenna, a member of Trump’s Energy Department transition team.
He dismissed the idea of a new concession for fossil fuel companies as “a smokescreen to keep people from talking about the uncomfortable fact that the president explicitly promised to exit Paris. Repeatedly.”…
Some, like Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and even Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), have suggested that without domestic regulations, there’s little urgency to leave Paris.
Few think the Trump administration will do much to comply with Paris or its commitments.
Obama funneled $1 billion toward the Green Climate Fund, which helps poor countries cope with warming. The remaining $2 billion he promised is explicitly barred from Trump’s budget blueprint. But Cramer argues in his letter that the Obama dollars should continue to buy the United States influence over the $10 billion fund’s investments…
Still, it appears that some Trump officials want to show that remaining in the agreement will yield immediate leverage in the form of a concrete “concession” for fossil fuel companies — a prospect that has environmentalists, diplomats and McKenna scratching their heads.
“This is borderline incomprehensible,” McKenna said. “What kind of ‘concessions’ for fossil fuels could we be talking about? Paris is silent on compliance mechanisms, so why would anyone need ‘concessions’?”…
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060052026
22
more Heartland:
23 Mar: E&E News: Hannah Hess: ‘Days of trust-me science are over’ — Lamar Smith
Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas), chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, wants to draw the line between “climate study” and “climate science.”
Smith, speaking during a two-day conference featuring scholars who have broken with the vast majority of their colleagues on human-caused global warming, said the scientific method is “repeatedly ignored by the so-called, self-professed climate scientists” and touted his legislation to revamp U.S. EPA’s use of research (Greenwire (LINK), March 9).
“The days of trust-me science are over,” Smith said in his keynote address. It was a big applause line in the Washington hotel ballroom…
Attendees included EPA senior adviser Dave Kreutzer, formerly of the Heritage Foundation, who told E&E News he was at the conference for a panel on cost-benefit analyses and the social cost of carbon.
The panel featured a former colleague with whom Kreutzer co-authored a report (LINK) challenging EPA’s modeling regarding carbon’s impacts.
Steve Milloy, a member of President Trump’s EPA transition team, is scheduled to speak this evening as part of a discussion on “fossil fuels and human health.” Also, Competitive Enterprise Institute scholar Myron Ebell, who headed the EPA transition team, will accept an award tonight…
One booth at the conference promoted “Climate Hustle,” the 90-minute film from Marc Morano that aims to expose the “global warming shakedown.” The person promoting DVDs wore a name tag reading, “Hello, my name is Al Gore.”…
Speakers today included scientists who have argued that carbon dioxide is plant food and shouldn’t be regulated. One scholar suggested the government should harness the power of the market to yield a mechanism for unbiased climate forecasting.
“Isn’t warm better? Doesn’t carbon dioxide fertilize? Isn’t this all total bullsh*t?” a man in the crowd asked, when presented with that viewpoint…
http://www.eenews.net/eenewspm/stories/1060051996/climate_digest
31
24 Mar: E&E News: Hannah Hess: Potential science adviser wants ‘Team B’ on climate
William Happer, the Princeton University physicist in the running for science adviser to President Trump, bemoaned “climate hysteria” today and said the nation needs a “Team B” to counter evidence linking carbon dioxide emissions to global warming.
Happer, speaking at the Heartland Institute’s 12th annual International Conference on Climate Change in Washington, D.C., said a blue-ribbon presidential commission is needed to “bring the facts about climate to the American people.”…
“It will certainly give us a lot more defensive weapons against, say, Europeans, against some of our own people who are fanatics about this, if we really do a good report on this. And it has to be commissioned by the president,” said Happer, who in the past has called the consensus on man-caused climate change a “cult” (Greenwire, Feb. 7)…
http://www.eenews.net/eenewspm/2017/03/24/stories/1060052069
24 Mar: E&E News: Hannah Northey: Trump approves ‘incredible’ pipeline as greens prep lawsuit
President Trump announced federal approval for the Keystone XL oil pipeline this morning and signaled he will push Nebraska to grant the last permit TransCanada Corp. needs to finish the deeply controversial project to connect Canadian oil sands crude with Gulf Coast refineries…
At his side were was TransCanada CEO Russell Girling, Energy Secretary Rick Perry and the heads of labor unions.
Groups including the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and pro-project lawmakers including Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) praised the move.
Trump said he would call Nebraska’s Republican governor, Pete Ricketts, an ardent supporter of the president, to press him on the issue.
“Keystone, finished. They’re going to start construction when?” Trump asked, turning to Girling, who quickly noted that the project still needs the Nebraska permit.
“I’m sure Nebraska will be good, Pete is a fantastic governor,” Trump said. “I’ll call him today.”
However, it’s the Nebraska Public Service Commission that is reviewing TransCanada’s application. And environmentalists have vowed a long and bitter legal and public fight.
During a conference call with reporters, pipeline critics poked fun at the president for assuming that one phone call to Ricketts would greenlight the pipeline…
The PSC is made up of four Republican commissioners and a lone Democratic chairwoman. None of them have shared their positions on KXL…
Groups like Bold Alliance, the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council are preparing litigation focused on the State Department’s giving KXL the green light…
“The president said, ‘I’ll call Nebraska,’ as if that would take care of the problem,” said Bill McKibben, president of 350.org. “When he calls Nebraska, he’ll get an earful.”
http://www.eenews.net/greenwire/stories/1060052061
21
26 Mar: Townhall: Bruce Bialosky: Are the Climate Change People Right?
Lennart Bengtsson, a Swedish Meteorologist, came out and questioned Global Warming in 2014. Fifteen days after he joined the Global Warming Policy Foundation he quit because he was being harassed. Bengtsson stated he had come under “an enormous group pressure. I see no limit and end to what will happen. It is a situation that reminds me about the time of McCarthy. I would never have expecting anything similar in such an original peaceful community as meteorology. Apparently it has been transformed in recent years. I had not expecting such an enormous world-wide pressure put at me from a community that I have been close to all my active life.”
Judith Curry is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. She recently quit her position fed up with the tribal nature of the climate-science community and the stonewalling over the release of data and its analysis for independent review…
7. The Climate Models – The scientists who question the orthodoxy of climate change often cite they cannot prove the models that are used by the supporters. But you don’t even need to be a famous climatologist to question this. Do you believe that these people can predict the weather at the end of this century – 83 years from now?…
Yet they want to significantly reorient the energy sources in our society. And what happens 83 years from now if they are wrong – do they just say “sorry”?…
https://townhall.com/columnists/brucebialosky/2017/03/26/are-the-climate-change-people-right-n2303208
following includes John Christy to give impression of objectivity in an otherwise lengthy pro-CAGW piece, full of projection:
24 Mar: Harvard Political Review: Inside the Climate Science Witch Hunts
By Drew Pendergrass
Katharine Hayhoe is a Texan, an evangelical Christian, and a climate scientist. She’s on a mission to convince skeptics, many of whom share her faith, that climate change is not a liberal hoax. “Global Weirding,” a PBS-produced web series that Hayhoe hosts, addresses everything from climate science to the Bible, arguing among other things that Christians should take a stand on climate change. That, in part, explains the death threats.
But even before her show started, Hayhoe was the target of a cottage industry of climate skeptics…
“People can get very dogged in attacking climate scientists, and they can do things you would never think of,” Lauren Kurtz said in an interview with the HPR. She’s the director of the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, based out of Columbia University, which defends scientists like Hayhoe from legal attacks…
“People don’t understand the process of peer review,” Hayhoe said. “If it’s peer reviewed, not only does that mean it’s in the public domain, it also means we have described what we have done in sufficient detail that anyone could reproduce what we did.” Emails, then, should reveal nothing of scientific importance…
“The wrath that’s being directed at climate scientists at root is not because people don’t respect the science or the scientists,” says (Kerry) Emanuel. “It is expressing a fear of what the solution to the problem might look like.” There is considerable anxiety among Republicans that climate change will undermine small-government conservatism. This leads think tanks and other groups to harass scientists, even if they don’t have backing from vested interests like the fossil fuel industry. The issue has moved beyond economics into a proxy war over ideology…
After Climategate, Mann was subject to a congressional investigation, two independent inquiries from Penn State, EPA petitions, and a detailed investigation from the National Science Foundation. All found him innocent of any wrongdoing…
A whopping 97 percent of climate scientists agree the Earth is warming as a result of human activity. Politicians are not inherently anti-science; instead, attempts to discredit climate scientists have become a tool to justify a particular small-government ideology. In the proxy war, that ideology matters more than science. “These are just ridiculous arguments that have moved on from what’s actually right,” says Dessler…ETC
http://harvardpolitics.com/culture/inside-the-climate-science-witch-hunts/
31
CYCLONE DEBBIE.
Martin Clark suggested monitoring the the BOM weather data as Cyclone Debbie moves in.
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/03/climate-media-news-coverage-collapsed-in-the-2009-election-year/#comment-1901298
So far Marion reef seems to be taking the worst of it with maximum wind speeds of 128km/hr and sea level pressure (QNH)down to 997hPa.
I will be taking a regular look and saving some of the web pages from time to time.
Cyclone Debbie has been predicted to hit the coast as a Category 4 Cyclone. Currently the advice is that Debbie will intensify to a Category 3 cyclone tonight.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20023.html
I would say that Cyclone Debbie is a marginal Category 2 cyclone at this time by the BOM definition;
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/#severity
For those who are interested in this: Go to the BOM site; on the top bar, click on QLD and then observations in the drop down box. Check Queensland observations via clickable map on the left hand column, then click on the various recording sites and get the latest data.
60
Latest version of my map:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3unqvkyms9q5z4d/debbietrackingmap07.pdf?dl=0
Uh-oh … back in the warning area again. Hoping BoM have got the track right, as Maggie Island and the coastal ranges will shield us if it comes in to the south. Not looking good for Ayr though.
Sneaky this one. Coming in through a gap in the off-shore stations. Creal Reef should be the next one to pick up some winds. My earlier map had Hayman Island next, but there’s no station there, next one is Hamilton Island.
Not sure about the intensification. MetEye has sea temperature at 28-30, which I don’t believe. Today hasn’t been that hot, max 31.5. I could be wrong …
40
Thanks Martin
30
Max wind gust at Creal reef, 102kph at about 6am. Wind ESE so Debbie may be passing a little bit to the North of Creal reef. Will landfall be at Hamilton Is?
10
Take a look at the cyclone on the BOM satellite imaging.
http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Enlarge the image to the size of the cyclone and click on “layers” at the bottom left to show the coastline and cities. It is impressive. Gives a feel for the violence of nature, even for a modest cyclone.
I am not sure what category the BOM is saying right now. I think it is a category 2 at present. The forecast track is here.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
20
Peter,
If you would like to monitor the wind speeds I suggest you link to this Google Earth feature.
By clicking on the map you can check the speed at various locations around the cyclone and compare against the BOM sites.
cheers, Basil
10
Thanks Basil,
Nullschool is a great model but it is not data. The wind speeds are predictions from some sort of climate model. Very interesting and useful in some respects,
For those who want to monitor the actual wind speeds I suggest the BOM site.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94368.shtml
20
Hamilton Island peaked at 113kph at 5:30pm.
I expect it to track the coast a bit longer and cross around Hay Point. Will be interesting for the coal terminals. As coal is an obsolete fuel that will not matter much.
Centre at 5pm 19.40S and 150.14E.
10
BOM says that Debbie is now Cat 3. Seems to be moving to a landfall just North of Hamilton Is.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
They are still predicting category 4 by then. Debbie is expected to hit the coast at about 9am tomorrow morning.
Please monitor the BOM stations and keep web pages every now and then.
10
Just had to chuckle at this. Monday’s forecast for Adelaide – Current temp (6:45pm) is 33 degrees and unlikely to rise – this is now “hot”!
42
No, Ian Hill, you missed that the temperature in Kent Town climbed to a blistering 33.3℃. Other parts of Adelaide may not have been quite so scorching. It was a bit humid as well, so possibly it seemed hotter than that to any BoM personel who stuck their head outside.
33
When my sons were in primary school the teachers wouldn’t let the Saturday morning cricket matches proceed if it was forecast to be above 30C – despite our protests. But one Saturday in April 2005 they played and it got to 37C during the morning! The opposition coach generously said we could bat first when it was already about 34C, but I said “no, we will do the toss”. We won it and fielded first. Everyone survived. The BOM sure got it wrong that day!
21
Another story, possibly true!
A very long time ago post WW2 before there were any decent communications networks by today’s standards and when the small commuter type passenger aircraft were still prop driven and meteorology for the masses was still developing, Mildura airport in the NW corner of the State of Vic had a meteorologist stationed on the airport to provide local weather forecasts for the range of aircraft that used that still relatively remote airport.
The local Met office was a windowless brick building from where the meteorologist did his forecasts and weather assessments for the Mildura region and issued his forecasts for to any aircraft inbound or about to leave or transiting the Mildura airspace.
One well remembered day amongst the old local pilots the Met officer in his usual cheery way was informing an inbound passenger aircraft by the usual aviation radio link that it was CAVOK all the way into Mildura.
[ CAVOK is an abbreviation for “Cloud And Visibility OK”, indicating no cloud below 5,000 ft (1,500 m) or the highest minimum sector altitude and no cumulonimbus or towering cumulus at any level, a visibility of 10 km (6 mi) or more and no significant weather change. ]
There was a pregnant pause from the aircraft pilot as he digested the Met officer’s assessment of the local conditions before he plaintively asked, “Could you please look out of your bloody door! We can’t see bloody Mildura because it is pouring rain ahead of us ”
Another long and pregnant silence on the radio as all the local operators listened in.
Then; Ahem!
Amended Mildura Forecast;
Heavy rain with visibility at minimums .
Gusting to ? knots. winds highly variable and etc and etc.
I think windows were added to that no longer existing Brick edifice Met office very shortly afterwards.
93
Still using the same forecasting technique after all these years and still as accurate as ever .
63
There was the case well known in Adelaide when Alf Gard, the ABC race caller was stuck in the commentary box at Cheltenham race course one very wet afternoon. The box was out in the middle of no-where and the rain was pouring down, so much so that the first 2 races were held up and started quite late. Then there was an extended wait while the Stewards dealt with the jockeys who went on strike because it was too dangerous, and eventually cancelled the races.
Meanwhile Alf was left in his box with no information and nothing to do except get stuck into his half bottle of whisky. About the time the third race would have been due the studio announcer said “and now we cross to Alf Gard at Cheltenham for an up-date” and disappeared for a cuppa. Alf got stuck into the Weather Bureau and its predictions suggesting a length of rope nailed to a board would do better (if the rope moved it was windy, if it dripped water it was raining etc.) for about 15 minutes until a strange voice (the sound engineer) cut him off with the excuse of technical difficulties. Alf was an ex-RAAF war time pilot with a colourful turn of phrase. It generated some comment in the local papers.
Curiously the Weather Bureau defended themselves with a claim that (within certain margins of error) they had achieved accurate, or near accurate predictions over 67% of the time. They then pointed out that Mr. Gard as a racing expert also made predictions in the paper and had only achieved 11% accuracy in the last 3 months. The Editor declared NO further correspondence allowed.
72
Our bush weather forecasters use a single piece of paper.
The paper is placed on a rock, under a small stone.
If it remains dry the weather is fine.
If the paper gets wet, it is raining.
If it blows away, then the wind direction is established, and the speed indicates the force.
Who needs fancy equipment?
31
how do you measure speed of wind?
how do you record how much rain fell?
temperature?
does it have a web cam or is someone watching it 24/7?
21
These things are all relative.
Either the paper is still, or it flutters, or it blows away.
How wet is the paper? A few spots, generally damp, or soaking wet.
If you are out in the bush, that is all you really need to know, regarding what you are prepared to carry.
As for temperature, what weight of coat do you want to lug around, and how susceptible are you to hypothermia?
You look at the paper before you go to sleep, and again in the morning.
That is how our antecedents managed before we all got interconnected to everybody else. It must have worked for them, or we wouldn’t be having this discussion now.
30
Ahh!
.
One is the view from the bush and the realities of life
&
And the other is the view from inside of the hallowed walls of academia!
.
One built the Australia that once had one of the best living standards in the world
&
The other is now going down the path of destroying that same Australia.
10
You might need to look up your history books. The originators, agitators and financiers of climate observation for applied purposes were the people of the land not of the cities. Your other comments are wrong too- remarkable effort.
10
you are right… we’ve been wasting our time for all these centuries. And, although you neglected to address my question about this device needing to be watched 24 hours, I think the easiest thing to do is throw out the device. It is too complicated. If you get wet it is raining. If you feel wind it is windy. If it is dark it is night. Simples.
10
Tony has provided a unique insight into the relative efficiency and stability of base load power (coal in Australia) and renewables ( wind and solar).
I sat beneath the wind turbine on the grounds of the Newcastle site of the CSIRO last week and listened to it creek and groan.
What hit me was the engineering of this machine. If you tried to design something difficult to service and prone to stress fracture type failure, this would be it.
The main point I want to raise here is the safety record associated with turbines on stalks. A few years ago I read that safety for service crews had been an issue but have not seen anything since. There are just so many issues with the wholesale application of “renewables” besides cost of the power produced. Renewables are still only in the early experimental stage and it is appalling that they are put into use before the economic and operational bugs have been dealt with.
KK
60
KK:
Try http://www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/AccidentStatistics.htm
More people have died due to wind turbines than in nuclear power stations. (Do I hear the clatter of troll’s feet?).
91
One thing I forgot to remind readers about is the now derelict field of windmills in the U.S. which have not been “decommissioned”. None are working and the total count is 14,000.
I don’t know what it costs to pull one of these down and dump it but would suspect something between $50,000 and $100,000 per unit.
At the lower estimate we are looking at a minimum of $700 million dollars to clear the mess.
Is it any wonder they are still standing.
The future of renewables will be littered with graveyards like this one.
KK
71
Removal of the massive concrete base is also a major problem.
40
Not to mention that leachate from the concrete base, does severe damage to the soil fertility. This goes on for decades after the base is removed.
50
KK,
$700M is chicken feed compared with what has been wasted on its installation and maintenance (?)
70
True, but if you are the owner of those turbines and can avoid forking out that $700 million you are doing O.K.
That’s what corruption is all about and why Fukushima failed, it’s alloted time span was “extended”.
KK
10
KK,
Wrong. Fukushima failed because the support to the standby electrical generators failed. It was bad design, easy to note because of the size of the related earthquake and tsunami. While the latter pair killed and harmed tens of thousands of people, commentators are not critical of them for bad design.
Don,T need to highlight Fukushima nuclear. By latest count, nobody seems to have been harmed by radioactivity spread outside the perimeter fence. So to highlight nuclear is a somewhat false or stressing the absent spectacular event that negative people seem to thrive on.
Geoff
21
True Geoff,
Perhaps I was being a bit careless there. Still had it been shut down on the date required it wouldn’t have been there to cause problems.
10
I would pay to watch the demolition of a wind subsidy farm. You could put explosive cutting charges around the bases and watch them all fall down in sequence.
You could then make all those responsible for propagating the myth of global warming dismantle the remains with hand tools, including the concrete bases.
61
sarcon>
Thankfully they were part of a energy ‘sustainability’ plan, ensuring future generations get what they deserve.
/sarcoff>
20
Perhaps they could be ‘mined’ for the copper and rare earths in the generator.
Remove the blades and the tower could then be converted into a ‘home’ for birds and bats as reparations.
40
SUE!
10
The climate scandal convinced me to nominate Dr. Tim Ball for the Whistleblowers Award, and the late Professor Paul K. Kuroda (1917-2001) for posthumous recognition of World-wide Abuse of Science after WWII to deceive humanity.
https://realclimatescience.com/2016/09/climate-fraud-whistleblower-rewards-program/#comment-46193
10
With cricket, Union, League, A League, AFL and horse races I forgot all about Earth Hour.
Can someone tell me if the planet survived my forgetfulness?
60
These parts look much as usual for the time of year! I forgot Earth Hour too but I was cooking using electrcity; does that count?
20
Luckily, Earth Hour pulled us back from the brink of disaster.
That was a tipping point right there in front of us. The IPCC said so . . .
21
When was Earth Hour ?
I didn’t hear a whimper from it.
20
Here in New York City, I had no consciousness of Earth Hour.
40
Turnbull said:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-rejects-tony-abbotts-call-for-subsidy-to-keep-hazelwood-open-20170323-gv5d5y.html
Is there any evidence that this is true or is he making it up? As TdeF has told us, a lot of money has been spent on maintenance and improvements at Hazelwood.
50
This is a dissembling excuse from Malcolm. Unions use this. Work safety.
Then it needs maintenance. What doesn’t?
Hundreds of millions? So? It cost billions and was working fine yesterday.
Malcolm’s solution costs billions, may not be feasible and will take fuve years and is no more than a water battery adding nothing to new capacity.
Commercial decision? Insulting and facetious. Privately owned Hazelwood is being forced to close by Malcolm’s Federal law, the anti coal, anti gas RET. Repeal the RET. Home owners are being gifted $5,000 future carbon tax to put in Chinese solar. Madness. We are even paying $89 a Mwhr carbon tax 15 years in advance!
We have now lost 7GW in base load. The grid is now critical in four states. We have been officially warned by the operator and Malcolm waffles.
A single storm, a single failure, a hot day, a cold week and whole states will go off line for days. Windmills will stop. Interconnectors will shut. Home solar will collapse too as it is linked to the grid. Entirely Politician made disaster.
Then serious and concerned Malcolm will blame everyone else. Just like Weatherill.
110
“Hazelwood’s closure was a commercial decision taken by its majority owner, French giant Engie, and there was more than enough generation capacity to cover its loss”
Hazelwood’s closure is a commercial decision forced by Malcolm Turnbull. Rubbish. Hazelwood is running flat out at a loss and electricity prices will rocket. Please explain that, Malcolm. Why wouldn’t a working power station stay open in peak demand at peak prices?
“More than enough generation capacity to cover its loss.” Not according to AEMO which is issuing warning of critical shortages, especially of gas but also of baseload. Then the Australian Energy Council shows Victorian wholesale baseload rocketing/tripling from $40 a MWhr last year to $120 a MWhr, mostly in the last month, exactly as intended by the RET as coal and gas fired powerstations go off line, perhaps forever.
So we all wait in breathless anticipation for Malcolm’s five to seven year rescue effort costing billions and adding not a joule to total capacity.
Turnbull will go down in history as the most feckless, waffling, do nothing Prime Minister in Australian history, more Rudd than Gillard and her education revolution which has seen school participation in science drop from 25% to 6% while billions went into school halls and pink batts.
We await another do nothing Turnbull budget, the failure of which he has already blamed on Morrison. There is only been one man who wants publicly to stop the RET, remove 18C and give us back our country.
Despite his waffle, Malcolm will also neuter any changes to 18C, simply replacing words with equivalent words and then expanding it to include race and religion so that it will be worse, partly because he believes whatever the Greens believe, not having an idea of his own except to be Prime Minister. Then a priest, imam or rabbi or member of the public who objects to same sex marriage will now be prosecuted. Thanks, Malcolm, our Green Party PM.
80
“Hazelwood’s closure was a commercial decision taken by its majority owner, French giant Engie, and there was more than enough generation capacity to cover its loss”
Hazelwood’s closure is a commercial decision forced by Malcolm Turnbull. Rubbish. Hazelwood is running flat out at a loss and electricity prices will rocket. Please explain that, Malcolm. Why wouldn’t a working power station stay open in peak demand at peak prices?
“More than enough generation capacity to cover its loss.” Not according to AEMO which is issuing warning of critical shortages, especially of gas but also of baseload. Then the Australian Energy Council shows Victorian wholesale baseload rocketing/tripling from $40 a MWhr last year to $120 a MWhr, mostly in the last month, exactly as intended by the RET as coal and gas fired powerstations go off line, perhaps forever.
So we all wait in breathless anticipation for Malcolm’s five to seven year rescue effort costing billions and adding not a joule to total capacity.
40
The second half of my comment is in moderation because of 18C, because it mentions the subjects of 18C, which is a depressing comment on freedom of speech in Australia. We want our Prime Minister back the one who sees 18C and the RET as serious problems for Australia, attacks on our freedom.
72
The people have had enough.
00
I am sitting in Trump Tower in New York City (Donald’s home base) as I type this. I posted some pictures and comments at:
https://www.facebook.com/david.maddison.758/posts/10155960879968082
10
Hazelwood Update – The shutdown has started.
At 1.51AM Monday 27th March, Unit 8 was the first Unit at Hazelwood to shut down. It reduced power at around 3.45PM on Sunday afternoon from around 170MW to between 128MW and 134MW, trying vainly to stay operational for as long as possible. At 11.05PM Sunday night, power started falling even more, leading me to believe it was starting the shutdown process, which took almost three hours. Power fell off over the next almost three hours and finally, it stopped generating at 1.51AM on Monday morning.
At the end of Sunday, Hazelwood had generated 14.8% more power than every wind plant in Australia over the last 28 days. That 14.8% amounted to 129.696GWH, enough power to supply the 24 hour needs for 265,000 Australian homes for those 28 days.
Tony.
130
Governments don’t know beans about business and electricity generation is just business and the sooner the stupid government sods get their sticky tax grubbing fingers away from business the better. why does everything have to be politicised?
OBie
30
I want those of you who are interested to go to the AEMO site, at this link, and you have to do this now or at least within the next few hours anyway, because the graphs just scroll along.
That site shows demand (actual power consumption) and the cost for wholesale electricity at that time.
Once you are at that site, click on the ‘VIC’ button (the default opening is highlighted NSW)
Notice I mentioned that Unit 8 at Hazelwood started to shut down at around 11PM.
Look at the graph and look at what happened at 11PM Sunday night. (hover your mouse over that area and the cost and demand will be indicated)
There was a bit of a spike in the wholesale cost for electricity. At that time of night, that cost line usually just continues as nothing much happens, but this is a definite rise of around $10/MWH before settling back on the normal downward track for that time.
Okay you say, well that’s just coincidence Tony, surely.
Now click on each separate State button and note the same rise at the same time for every State, right on that 11PM mark. Each State has their own costing, and this rise at that time is across every State.
Just for one Unit at Hazelwood.
And as I have mentioned here before, this will happen as the plant closes, and in fact as each individual Unit closes down.
Also of note here, is the difference between Sunday and Monday, and for each State as well.
Note the maximum demand for Sunday, and then note the maximum demand for Monday, around 1000MW higher in the main three States, showing the normal working week demand increase.
Also, add up all the minimums for each state at 3.30AM when everyone’s asleep.
17,400MW – Sunday night. Week Nights it’s up around and beyond 18,000MW
ALL of that is from coal fired power, now suddenly less of it, and the cost increasing.
Who would have thought?
Tony.
50
No messing around now!
Unit 6 shut down at 10.10AM Monday. Took just 2 hours from 177MW to zero.
Two down, six to go.
AEMO price spike at exactly 10AM for Victoria and the State it’s feeding South Australia.
Tony.
60
Incidentally, Loy Yang has two of its six Units offline, and Yallourn has one of its four Units offline.
Something to watch for now (in the form of an early heads up from me) is to watch for what happens in South Australia when they have the first low wind power generation day after all eight Units at Hazelwood have closed.
Tony.
80
Why have we got politicians making engineering decisions?
20
Tony, looks like wind will blow for most of this week.
Interesting to see at present wind is delivering over 2400 MW at over 60% capacity factor, up from 350 MW or about 10% CF.
By state: NSW 240 MW, Qld 0 (what a waste with that cyclone coming), SA 1000, Tas 140, Vic 1000 MW.
20
All HWP units off line by Wednesday. Wind stops blowing Thursday night:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Friday morning peak in SA will be interesting.
20
Tony, If this whole thing wasn’t so tragic, the picture you are painting of the engineering and pricing scenario would be interesting from a business standpoint.
I am a bit fearful about the period ahead of us and intend to avoid using lifts.
Advice to all: use the stairs.
KK
00
The beginning of the end. A willful act of destruction.
91
Perversely, it may be the beginning of the end for the appalling RET. Nothing is now more certain in the next year than widespead blackouts in South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and NSW. NSW came close to rolling blackouts last month. Tasmania and South Australia are already suffering. Now baseload levels are critical.
The only question is how Premiers will explain the social and economic disaster which is certain as we in Victoria rediscover the joys of candles, backyard generators and cold showers while the emergency teams rescue people from elevators and airports and businesses shut down.
Malcolm Turnbull and Daniel Andrews will have to practice looking serious and very concerned and keeping a straight face while blaming the irresponsible owners of Hazelwood for closing. Weatherill has already blamed the same owners of Pelican Point. Meanwhile they will all start buying hundreds of diesel generators, which means we, the people start paying tens of millions a month and twice that in carbon tax.
This disaster could be stopped in one day, unless we follow South Australia’s lead and start dismantling and blowing up power stations.
Or will we turn Green communist and pass emergency laws to nationalize private businesses, power stations we previously sold?
70
Thank you to all the engineers and other people who designed and built this long lasting real power station that made the cheap, reliable, clean power that once helped to make Australia great.
141
Thanks for the news Tony. I look forward to further updates.
I expect the majority here in SA to be shocked at the impact of the closure of Hazelwood, as surely must be the case. I hope it’s sooner rather than later or people will get complacent. I have made some small preparations and have delayed booking my car in for a service for two weeks to guarantee I’ll have it for an event important to me coming up.
40
Thanks Tony,
That’s a bit earlier than I expected.
Cheers,
Dave B
10
I know only one thing to advise everyone to do — learn to enjoy being in the dark. 🙁
30
First generators go down at Hazelwood
By AAP, 2:31am 27th March 2017
The first of the Hazelwood coal-fired power station’s generators are being shut down in preparation for the closure of the business.
The progressive shutdown of the plant’s eight generators will start with three closing on Monday, another three on Tuesday and the final two on Wednesday.
The entire business will close on Friday, March 31.
Hazelwood has operated for more than 52 years and supplies up to 25 per cent of Victoria’s energy, employing 450 people directly and another 300 contractors.
In November French majority owner Engie announced the station’s closure because the plant was no longer economically viable and the company is moving away from coal globally.
The closure is expected to devastate the Latrobe Valley economy.
Last week the Latrobe City Council called for more state and federal government funding to help the region through the closure, claiming its economy will be dented by $340 million and the loss of 1862 jobs.
The council’s appeal came the same day former Prime Minister Tony Abbott used a newspaper column to suggest a government bailout for the plant – a call current Prime Minsiter Malcolm Turnbull has dismissed.
60
New Chum,
thanks for your contribution to this Hazelwood closure.
I have a hunch you may be close to the scene, so I have a technical engineering question for you. (and for all you others sorry if this sounds a little cryptic)
Once each Unit shuts down, will they still keep the rotor ticking over at a few revs, or are they stopping it completely allowing that immense weight of the rotor to settle on the shaft?
Tony.
20
TonyfromOZ
I have a hunch you may be close to the scene,
I obtained that from a Stockbrokers website it is “By Australian Associated Press.”
10
Things of importance for today:
1. Good news: The snow in the sierra Nevada mountains from which a large part of California’s water comes is now at 158% of “normal”. I think the drought is over.
2. Bad News: While one drought is ending another is starting with President rump shooting himself in the foot with his silly ultimatum to congress to pass Obamacare repeal or else. Or else what, Mr President? Perhaps or else you’ll have seriously weakened your presidency and seriously eroded any confidence people once had in you? Is that the way you want to go?
3. Unclassifiable news: I hear Earth Hour was a smashing success. Hundreds of millions of believers managed to survive for a whole hour in the dark. They even seemed to be excited about it. Then, of course, all their lights went back on, lest panic begin if they didn’t.
All in all a good enough day to begin with.
Oh! I better do this. /sarc
What else can you do?
50
Paul Ryan has passed his used by date.
10
Gordo,
It’s what I’ve been saying for a long time. Politicians are devout cowards, especially when making any move that will threaten their reelection down the road. So they don’t make that move. Many of them also have big egos. The nature of the human animal isn’t much different from any other critter with enough brain power to realize that approval of others is critical to preserving whatever they have, job, career, wealth, political power, reputation…
I’ll go so far as to say that if they had the nerve to legislate on controversial issues we wouldn’t be facing such a fight over confirmation of Gorsuch right now. The issue could be settled by legislation (any issue) and many things would never reach the courts. And that’s exactly why we have a legislature with the power to make law and a court system that lacks that power. Yet the intention of the constitution reversed and we now have the cart before the horse.
30
The good news is that the President isn’t a career politician and intends to drain the swamp.
30
Some of you that question what happened in Washington, D. C. might want to have a look at this Willis Eschenbach post.
Goodbye and Good Riddance, AHCA
10
A nice double act
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/trust-tim-arthur-seriously/news-story/cb09cda54d7029a6b4bf116ac2a33249
10
You can’t make this up.
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/asiapacific/2017/03/26/aust-partially-responsible-for-fukushima.html
20
Where? and When? and how long to accumulate a “lethal dose”?
30
Hazelwood Update 7.30am Monday:
Still producing 1100 MW with #8 shutdown.
The wind is blowing in SA providing 730 MW or almost half of SA demand.
Wind in Vic is also providing 607 MW, and Vic is still exporting 190 MW to SA, 100 to NSW, and 125 MW to Tas. And Qld is supplying 700 MW to NSW>
Prices are very high – in the first half of March Vic wholesale price averaged about $70/MWh but lately $120/MWh. YTD 2017 average for Vic $53/MWh and $106 in SA).
Note that these prices exclude the $90/MWh paid to wind/solar generators that is built into the retail price.
As Qld braces for Cyclone Debbie, Vic braces for Hazelwood Horror – thanks to Dan the Devil, Josh the Joker, and Turnbull the Terrible.
80
Australians believe the multinationals should waver free market values to make sure the locals get cheap and abundant gas supplies. The audacity.
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/gas-reservation-policy
20
Maybe the term “free market” is a euphemism for colonialism.
20
Donald is pushing the line that a free but fair form of capitalism is needed.
20
Xi has got hold of Donald’s script.
‘President Xi Jinping’s call for inclusive and sustainable globalization received international recognition and support at the Boao Forum for Asia, with participants agreeing that greater inclusiveness and fairness are needed to ensure shared benefits and common prosperity.’
China Daily
20
Just watching their ABC and that maggot journo David Marr was being interviewed about the rise of one nation party , he reckons it’s not about making Australia great again it’s about making Australia white again .
Most one nation voters are old and elderly and don’t get it .
I tell you what they don’t get ? Why Trump is president , why blog sites like this exist , why the average person in the street is smart enough to see what’s going on with issues such as CAGW and immigration.
And we’re waking up to the fact that MSM is green leaning and will push lefty views and stories regardless of truth or fact , it just has to fit their ideology to make it as news so then we come to fake news , in this 24 hr news cycle nowadays anything passes for news .
60
Aunty is talking about Kim, Donald and Xi.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-26/why-america-and-china-need-to-deal-with-kim-jong-un-together/8385362
10
More on Fatty Kim the Third
‘In recent times, neither escalating tensions in Sino-Japanese ties nor uncertainties in Sino-U.S. bilateral relations under the “unpredictable” Trump presidency have been the focus for the Chinese. Instead, public opinion has centered on “Fatty Kim the Third” – as the young leader of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un is unflatteringly called in the unofficial and social media in China – making for a debate fraught with controversy and confusion. To its utter dismay, however, the party-state in Beijing is completely at a loss today in coming to grips with the North Korea problem.’
The Diplomat
10
Polar vortex location. It will be blocked over the South Indian Ocean.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t05_sh_f00.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/
10
To add insult to injury, Malcolm Turnbull is demanding an inquiry into why electricity prices are soaring. Seriously. Has he never heard of supply and demand? Has he no idea why prices are $120 kwhr PLUS $90 for cash to windmill investors plus 15 years carbon tax at $90 a kwhr to home systems plus 12c a kwhr for home solar no one wants.
Perhaps he could appoint a prices commissioner or get a report from a select committee. At least Obama was open about rocketing electricity prices.
90
Then he does not have a degree in Economics like his rival Tony Abbott.
50
Unbelievable – blind Freddy can see why electricity prices are soaring. The RET is driving the shutdown of baseload stations and forcing the increase in unreliable, expensive wind and solar that are receiving payments from us consumers to the tune of $90/MWh in addition to the wholesale market price that is fluctuating wildly due to intermittent supplies from wind/solar. When the wind doesn’t blow, base load stations must increase supply, but then cut back when the wind blows. So we must pay for both the backup supplies and the unreliable. Understand Malcolm? Stop the RET and problem solved.
60
Yes, with adequate coal and gas power, for wind to be built there were two requirements.
The first is to force coal and gas users to pay for the building of windmills, without them knowing this is being done.
The second is to force the coal and gas power stations to close as uneconomic, so that people have to buy wind and solar.
So you force the middle men to pay double for the right to buy coal or gas power. Of course the wind power people have to actually generate power, but they do not have to sell it. The secret massive payment is in addition to any money they get if they actually sell the power. It is an insidious payment, more akin to the silent extortion of the Cosa Nostra.
In the meantime, prices will ‘rocket’ as cheap coal and gas producers are forced out of business.
So it is all going to the Green plan.
Why should the wind people actually meet demand? Why take a risk in storm? Why pay night shift?
Why not just enjoy the ride? Triple the price of coal/gas at 12c/kwhr and you get paid 9c/kwhr to produce electricity at any time, even when no one wants it. Home solar is the best, forcing the other Australians to give you cash to put in your home solar and then making them pay when no one needs your power. The early adopters are getting 65c/kwhr for electricity no one wants.
It takes a special type of politician to order a review of why electricity prices are soaring while supply is plummeting. It takes a special type of politician to say Hazelwood is being closed for business reasons of which he is presumably unaware, not wanting to pry into private business of a public company?
Please, can we get our original PM back, the one who won in a landslide, who stopped the boats and showed the world how to handle a crisis. Not the one creating them. Snowy Mountain II is a joke at our great expense.
70
I honestly think Turnbull is a very low IQ individual. Cunning, stupid but with an ability to surround himself with sycophants that subtly tell him what to do and think.
50
My latest Debbie mapping is at
https://www.dropbox.com/s/vxs8ki0bzuc2ivu/debbietrackingmap.pdf?dl=0
Further updates (if any) will go to the same link. Time for me to go tie things down.
50
Good Luck Martin
I think the tracking should indicate further south!
Hamilton Island & Creal Reef are copping the higher gusts!
Maybe best track is Mackay! Just my feeling!
Also SatView indicates southerly movement!
20
Yep, interesting 🙂 Looks like we will be ok, Bowen or Mackay will cop it …
And I even cleaned out the drains just in case we get a bit of that wet stuff.
Creal and Hamilton show a slight drop in the last half hour, but Satview shows intensification rather than any fizzling. That’s a classic cyclone image.
20
Are there any windmills in its path? Let’s hope they get destroyed, as long as no one is hurt.
10
” Are there any windmills in its path? ” Haha, well yes, there are few virtue-signalling ones locally, but I think they are ones that can be lowered and lashed down. Generally, Queensland doesn’t get as much wind as some places further south, except when it gets it in overdrive.
20
27 Mar: Australian: David Crowe: Libs looking to Asia to build new coal-fired power station in north
The Turnbull government has opened talks with Asian investors to build a coal-fired power station backed by its $5 billion northern Australia fund, as half the nation’s voters endorse the use of taxpayer funds to develop the project and improve energy security.
Resources Minister Matt Canavan is fast-tracking the plan amid a growing fight with Labor and the Greens over support for coal power, as cabinet ministers prepare to decide how to encourage big investors into the market.
A special Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, reveals that 47 per cent of voters favour the use of federal government funds to help construct a new coal-fired power station to improve energy security, while 40 per cent are opposed and 13 per cent undecided.
Amid a push by environmental groups to block new coalmines and coal-fired power stations, the national survey finds that 35 per cent of Labor voters and 15 per cent of Greens voters support using public funds to develop more coal-fired power…
“I wouldn’t characterise it as a subsidy, it’s an investment. Governments for decades have invested in energy infrastructure; all the energy infrastructure in Queensland is owned by the state government,’’ Senator Canavan said.
“It’s not unusual and generally those investments have paid off very well. I think most Australians see the central role of government as being investing in infrastructure — roads, rail and energy.”…
(Labor climate change spokesman Mark Butler) is warning against the use of taxpayer funds for the rail line to the Adani mine or a new power station, claiming the long-term future for coal is one of decline…READ ALL
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/libs-looking-to-asia-to-build-new-coalfired-power-station-in-north/news-story/3eb3b84db35f98e8821c146e4091e575
10
When Hazelwood closes there might be desperate measures to keep the power flowing such as with super expensive diesel generators. I was wondering how much diesel and other super expensive sources such as closed cycle gas turbines (or is it open) that can generate the power but at great expense?
How many MW are available from these reliable but expensive sources?
40
I suspect that to keep power flowing they might also over load the hydro schemes and empty the reservoirs like they did in Tasmania which caused them to burn out Basslink which forced them to install lots of diesel generators.
Oh, the insanity!
30
I think that Tasmania has learnt that lesson. Bailing out Vic. will be very low on their list of priorities.
The question is what are the comparative costs? Coal (unhindered) runs around $30 per MWh, whereas the figure I have for CCGT is ~$65 but that depends on the gas price and could be higher in the current situation.
Wind and solar are around $110-120 (cost so higher selling price needed unless subsidised, as they are with RET).
OCGT is hard because of the maintenance but it has been noted that the ones in SA are very reluctant to fire up until they can sell around $250-300.
Diesel? I don’t know. I have seen figure of $350 for duel fuel (start up on diesel and then run on natural gas).
One thing is certain, the cost of electricity will go up.
40
Hydro currently supplying 1400 MW, up from 300 MW overnight.
30
Open cycle provides quick response electricity, at a lower efficiency.
Closed cycle gas turbine provides higher efficiency, slower response electricity.
My understanding is that closed cycle uses the turbine exhaust to heat steam, to turn an additional turbine.
20
A simple cycle gas turbine operates on the Brayton thermodynamic cycle.
A closed cycle system combines the Brayton and Rankin thermodynamic cycles. (another way of saying that energy in the exhaust gas of the GT generates the steam for the ST).
Early simple cycle machine efficiencies were as low as 17% (circa 1950) and fifth generation machines such as the Rolls Royce Trent or the GE LM2500 are in the high forties.(only at full load)
Combined cycle machine efficiency is somewhat constant over a considerable load range and varies from a D class machine of about 50% to and H Class machine at about 62%.
Higher overall thermal efficiencies can be achieved if there is a requirement for low quality heat.
40
Agreed, but beyond the grasp of politicians e.g. Tom Koutsantonis and Jay Weatherill who got their noses out of joint when Pelican Point 2 didn’t start up and generate at 30 minutes notice. As I have pointed out before it is a CCGT and would take 4-5 hours to get neat full output, unlike a (typically smaller) OCGT.
The OCGT has lower fuel efficiency (30-40%) hence higher emissions for each MWh generated and higher cost. They also have much higher maintenance costs due to the thermal cycling from on/off operation. CCGT have much higher fuel efficiency (latest ~ 62% although those in SA are more like 55%) lowest emissions of any conventional generation method ( ~420-460 kg. CO2 per MWh v black coal 800-960, HELE 700).
The cost of gas is an important factor e.g. in the USA cheap gas and liquids from frakking have made gas fired CCGT competitive with coal fired.
This might help.
http://euanmearns.com/co2-emissions-variations-in-ccgts-used-to-balance-wind-in-ireland/
NOTE the comment:
As the level of wind penetration grows the CCGTs need to work harder ramping up and down to compensate for variable wind. This causes increased wear and tear on the CCGT plant and also significantly reduces the energy efficiency of the CCGTs raising their specific CO2 production. During 2014 and 2015, average wind penetration was 22%, the CCGTs produced 575 Kg of CO2 per MWh and the average fuel efficiency was 32% compared with a design specification of 55%.
So treating CCGTs like OCGTs as in SA gets you higher costs, emissions and lower reliability. Standard Labor policy.
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26 Mar: Mashable: Maria Gallucci: Trump administration wants out of the Paris Climate Agreement. But have they read it?
Scott Pruitt, head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), railed against the Paris Climate Agreement in an interview with ABC News on Sunday. He called the landmark climate change accord a “bad deal” that unfairly penalizes the United States, while giving a free pass to other major polluting countries.
“What was wrong with Paris was … that China and India, the largest producers of [carbon dioxide] internationally, got away scot free. They didn’t have to take steps until 2030,” Pruitt told anchor George Stephanopoulos.
“So we penalized ourselves through lost jobs, while China and India didn’t take steps to address this issue internationally,” Pruitt said…
While it’s true the U.S., China and India don’t have the same targets, that’s not a reflection of the Paris Climate Agreement. It’s a reflection of each government’s choices.
Still, none of this will convince Pruitt and the Trump administration to stick with the Paris agreement…
http://mashable.com/2017/03/26/scott-pruitt-paris-climate-agreement-bad-deal/#MUCoDs0dmgqp
26 Mar: ABC America: Trump will end Obama’s signature Clean Power Plan this week: EPA chief
By Nicki Rossoll
The former Oklahoma attorney general also suggested the Paris climate accord is unfair to the U.S.
“China and India, the largest producers of [carbon dioxide] internationally, got away scot-free” in the climate pact, Pruitt said. “So we’ve penalized ourselves through lost jobs while China and India didn’t take steps to address the issue internationally. So Paris was just a bad deal, in my estimation.” …
27 Mar: Bloomberg: Jennifer A Dlouhy: Trump Said to Issue Far-Reaching Reversal of Obama Climate Push
President Donald Trump is set to sign a sweeping executive order on Tuesday aimed at promoting domestic oil, coal and natural gas by reversing much of his predecessor’s efforts to address climate change.
The document lays out a broad blueprint for the Trump administration to dismantle the architecture that former President Barack Obama built to combat the phenomenon, according to details shared with Bloomberg News. Some of the changes would happen immediately, while others would take years to complete.
It also will toss out two Obama-era directives that gave consideration of climate change a prominent role in federal rule making…
The details shared with Bloomberg News reflected the latest draft of the White House order and could change before the announcement, which Pruitt said would happen Tuesday…READ ALL
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-26/trump-said-to-issue-far-reaching-reversal-of-obama-climate-push
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Say, this is way out there in left field I know, and totally unrelated to electrical power generation, and is based only on a hunch.
I think that the Premier of Queensland Annastacia Palaszczuk will resign before the next State election here in Queensland.
She was all there was after the Newman Landslide, and was not expected to win the next election. She did, and while her faction now had nowhere near the numbers, they kept her on as Premier because it would not have been a good look to dump her.
She has had numerous chances to go early this time around, safe in the knowledge that Queensland will now have four year set terms, voted into place at the last election, and she has not decided to go early, even though she knows they’ll win easily. My feeling is that the party knows they will get back in easily this time around, so they’re allowing her time to look good in the job, be that Labor hero, shore even up more votes for the party, and then fade into the background as those stronger party factions line up their new leader.
Look for her to shine during Cyclone Debbie, bask in the afterglow, and then, at a suitable time later, retire gracefully, citing the usual family reasons.
You can bet party backrooms have oh so politely mentioned all this to her, knowing that next election is in the bag, not that even a whisper of this leaks to the public, let alone her own private TV channel, Queensland ABC, who just adore her and find some way to put her on the news every night possible.
Just a hunch, mind you.
Tony.
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quite possible and also quite possible that this
will be genuine
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She’s only a politician and therefore likely a psychopath. They have no feelings except the ones they pretend to have to appear socially normal.
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Cynic!
But probably correct. The patterns are there.
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VIDEO: 7mins05secs: 26 Mar: ABC This Week: EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt previews new executive order
http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/epa-administrator-scott-pruitt-previews-executive-order-46383308
26 Mar: ABC America: Rough Transcript: This Week w/ George Stephanopoulis: Interview with Scott Pruitt
PRUITT: George, the president is keeping his promise to the American people this week. With respect to this executive order that’s coming out on Tuesday, the Energy independence executive order. And as you indicated, this is about making sure that we have need a pro-growth and pro-environment approach to how we do regulation in this country.
For too long, over the last several years, we have accepted a narrative that if you’re pro-growth, pro-jobs, you’re anti-environment; if you’re pro-environment, you’re anti-jobs or anti-growth. And that’s just not where we have been as a country throughout our existence. We have made tremendous progress on our environment. And we can be both pro-jobs and pro-environment. And the executive order will address the past administration’s efforts to kill jobs across this country through the clean power plant.
STEPHANOPOULOS: This order is likely to face some legal challenges. It could take some time to work through the courts. And, as you know, coal jobs have been declining for a long time. We heard the president’s promise right there. Most of the job loss predates the Obama initiative. I want to put up a chart right there. It showed the biggest drops came over several — a decade ago. And you have about the same number of coal jobs now as you did a decade ago.
So, are you worried at all the president is making a promise to coal country that he just can’t keep?
PRUITT: Well, it’s not just the short-term, George; it’s the long term. And it’s clear that the past administration had a very anti-fossil fuel strategy — coal, natural gas, and the rest. And so this is a promise he’s keeping to the American people to say that we can put people back to work and be pro-environment as well. This clean power plan is something that the Supreme Court, as you know, has said is likely unlawful. And so there’s been a stay against this clean power plan.
So, our action starting on Tuesday, shortly after the executive order, will make sure whatever steps we take in the future will be pro-growth, pro-environment, but within the framework of the Clean Air Act. And it will be legal.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But will it bring back coal jobs?
PRUITT: I think absolutely it will. It will bring back manufacturing jobs across the country, coal jobs across the country. Across the energy sector, we have so much opportunity, George. And the last administration had an idea of keeping it in the ground. We need to more more independent, less reliant upon foreign energy sources. And this is an opportunity.
We know this week, this past week, the president approved the Keystone Pipeline. So, it’s transportation issues, it’s development issues, it’s putting people back to work both in the energy sector, but also the jobs it creates in the manufacturing sector and across our economy.
STEPHANOPOULOS: If the president follows through on this order and his promise to reverse vehicle pollution rules, there is no way for the United States to reach its commitments under the Paris climate agreement, which of course was reached in 2015. Here’s how one Nobel Prize-winning climate expert, Mario Molina, described the impact. He said the message, they, the Trump administration is sending to the rest of the world is that they don’t believe climate change is serious. It’s shocking to see such a degree of ignorance from the United States…
PRUITT: George, we’re actually at pre-1994 levels right now with respect to our CO2 footprint. Now, why is that? Largely it’s because of innovation and technology both in the coal sector and the natural gas sector. Horizontal drilling has allowed there to be much more conversion to natural gas in the generation of electricity.
You know, we’ve got to keep in mind, it’s not just jobs that are going to be created by the president’s action here. It’s also lower electricity rates for our consumers across the country, because when you take coal generation facilities, natural gas facilities, and you put them aside and focus only on certain types of ways to generate electricity, it’s causing double-digit increases across the country as it relates to consumers. That’s not good for our economy on the consumer side and it’s not good on the manufacturing side.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But I was asking about the Paris Climate Agreement. Don’t these initiatives mean that the climate agreement is a dead letter as far as this administration is concerned?
PRUITT: Well, the Paris accord is something, as you know, that’s non-binding. It was not a treaty, as such. The Clean Power Plan is not tethered to the Paris accords. And so this is an effort to undo the unlawful approach the previous administration engaged in and to do it right going forward with the mindset of being pro-growth and pro-environment, and we can achieve both…
PRUITT: Look, since 1980, we’ve seen a 65 percent reduction in those pollutants that we regulate under the ambient air quality standards. We have done great work as a country striking the balance between jobs and our environment.
This past administration, I think, took steps that were anti-jobs and anti-growth. And the Paris accord, I think, represents that…
You mentioned the Paris accord. You know, what was wrong with Paris was not just that it was — you know, failed to be treated as a treaty, but China and India got away, the largest producers of CO2 internationally, got away scot-free. They didn’t have to take steps until 2030.
So we penalized ourselves through lost jobs while China and India didn’t take steps to address the issue internationally. So Paris was just a bad deal, in my estimation. But, we’re trying to focus on getting things right here domestically, and making sure we operate within the framework of the Clean Air Act.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-26-17-sen-chuck-schumer-rep/story?id=46372022
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This one made me laugh – 17-year old British boy discovers an error in the ISS (International Space Station) radiation readings:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39351833
Quoting some bits:
But trust them… the climate data is all A-OK!
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Stephanopoulos cited Mario Molina,- apparently from NYT quotes:
21 Mar: NYT: Coral Davenport: Trump Lays Plans to Reverse Obama’s Climate Change Legacy
“The message they are sending to the rest of the world is that they don’t believe climate change is serious. It’s shocking to see such a degree of ignorance from the United States,” said Mario J. Molina, a Nobel Prize-winning scientist from Mexico who advises nations on climate change policy…
“The message clearly is, ‘We won’t do what the United States has promised to do,’” Mr. Molina said…
A version of this article appears in print on March 22, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Climate Plans Would Reverse Obama Legacy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/climate/trump-climate-change.html
Wikipedia: Mario J. Molina
Molina is a climate policy adviser to President of Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto…
Molina is a member of the Pontifical Academy of Science…
He serves on the boards of several environmental organizations and also sits on a number of scientific committees including the U.S. President’s Committee of Advisors in Science and Technology, the Institutional Policy Committee, the Committee on Global Security and Sustainability of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Mario Molina Center…
Molina was named by U.S. President Barack Obama to form a transition team on false environmental issues…
Mario Molina received several awards and honors, sharing the 1995 Nobel Prize in chemistry with Paul J. Crutzen and F. Sherwood Rowland for their discovery of the role of CFCs in ozone depletion…
On August 8, 2013, President Barack Obama announced Molina as a recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_J._Molina
FakeNewsMSM still don’t realise, or won’t accept, that Donald Trump won the 2016 election.
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Someone was just telling me about a study into possible cancer link from solar panels , anyone heard anything like this ?
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Hazelwood update 2.30pm:
Three of eight units shutdown, generation now just below 1000 MW.
But with the wind blowing strongly, SA is getting 80% of its power from wind (864 MW) and is even “saving” Vic by exporting 340 MW.
But Vic with its own wind of 480 MW is exporting 290 MW of power to NSW and 140 MW to Tas.
And possibly for the first time in a long time, SA has the cheapest spot price of $75/MWh with all other states above $80. That’s very different to the 2017 average YTD prices of $106/MWh in SA and $53/MWh in Vic.
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It is rumoured that TVPS is about to come off soon (actually this was planned when it was started up in in January). If it does, that will be about 200 missing from the Tas generation.
Get you gas fired popcorn popper ready folks, the show is about to start. Pray for whopping unicorn farts.
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Just look at those prices!
A year ago Tas and Vic was typically about $50
A year before that about $35.
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Has anybody got a coal fired popcorn popper? Might be a good innovative and agile product. Jobs and growth, you know.
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You just need an open fire, a small fishing net on a pole, and fast reflexes. Don’t try to cheat, or your net will catch on fire!
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I do, it is called my coal stove. It is Amish built, so no electricity is needed. Perfect for places where the only electricity is unreliables!
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Correction, seems only 2 units have shut down.
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Are socialist goals in this description of the Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Society, pages 173-189:
http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-03668-7
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Oliver K. Manuel March 27, 2017 at 4:04 pm
“Are socialist goals in this description of the Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Society, pages 173-189:”
Yes indeed! So what; that is but some society never science? A very recent publication. Have you some evidence of your claim of error in Dr. Weizsäcker actually wrote long ago? Seem only your (or that of others) interpretation of what was written.
All the best! -will-
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Yes, Will J., the first paper I wrote showing the error in Weizsacker’s “nuclear binding energy“ was presented at the APS meeting in New York in ~1969.
I have posted several more recent ones here recently.
There is no doubt Weizsacker’s error altered humanity’s awareness of reality.
Even the Carl Fredrich von Weizsacker Society itself admits that ALTERED AWARENESS IS ONE OF ITS AREAS OF ACTION.
Read CFvW Society, pages 173-174:
http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-03668-7
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“There is no doubt Weizsacker’s error altered humanity’s awareness of reality.”
You have published absolutely nothing of any error in Weizsacker’s own writings! Where is such? All you claim is some possible ‘misunderstanding’ of what was written. Why cannot such be repaired? Is it true that you have some vendetta on most German Physics Societys? That I might even support; but not this persistent claim of error with no evidence whatsoever
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Will, for every beta decay (electron or positron emitter or electron capture)
1. Aston’s values of “nuclear packing fraction” yield the correct decay energy, but
2. Weizsacker’s values of “nuclear binding energy” yield incorrect decay energy.
E.g., H-3 => He-3, but not
He-3 => H-3 as predicted
in Weizsacker’s altered awareness state of theoretical physics
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“2. Weizsacker’s values of “nuclear binding energy” yield incorrect decay energy. E.g., H-3 => He-3, but not He-3 => H-3 as predicted”
Who besides you claim that is what Weizsacker actually wrote?
What you claim may just be error in translation! Proof!!!
“Cannot yield the same nuclear energy, as measured from the bottom of the figure on the right by Einstein (1905) & Aston (1922):”
I understand (a we bit of) what you are trying to say, which may be correct. OTOH How much “power” (dQ/dt) from the bottom is thermal gamma radiation that cannot be reversible. Time is the complex conjugate of EMR power transfer!
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Will,
Do you not realize that nuclear energy, as measured from the sloping line at the top of the figure on the left by Weizsacker (1935),
Cannot yield the same nuclear energy, as measured from the bottom of the figure on the right by Einstein (1905) & Aston (1922):
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Nuclear_Energy_Error.pdf
If you can’t understand that, I probably can’t help.
00
Just wondering if dangerous Dan is practising his ” with the benefit of hindsight ” speech , or is he going to borrow Jay Weatherdill how to shift the blame on the AEMO and federal govt routine .
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