Don’t panic now, but all the coal burnt in China has been cooling the Antarctic Peninsula.
For the last twenty years, The Antarctic Peninsula was the poster-peninsula for the Global Worriers as they calculate how many meters the oceans will rise when it melts, but all across it, temperatures are going down, not up.
We can knock half to one degree off:
This cooling has amounted to a 0.5 to 0.9 °C decrease in temperatures in most of the Antarctic Peninsula region, the only exception being three stations located in the southwest sector of the peninsula that experienced a slight delay in their thermal turning point, declining only over the shorter period of the past decade.
Thanks to CO2Science: The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine for Climate Alarmists
….
…
The start points matter. The cooling started after 1998, which was an El Nino, and we can see there was a similar downward slope from 1983 to 1993. As usual, with a climate graph, there are steps and stairs, and there is a trend up in the last 50 years (but probably down in the last 7,000).Whatever.
What there isn’t, most definitely, is a trend that fits carbon emissions.
Not that the media seem to mention that. Here’s The Independent, UK, March 2nd, 2017:
The Antarctic Peninsula is among the most rapidly warming areas of the planet, with temperatures having increased by almost 3C over the last 50 years.
There also isn’t a trend that fits the climate models which told us it would be the most rapidly warming place on Earth. From CO2Science — other studies also came to the same conclusion:
However, in recent years two studies have challenged this assessment. Carrasco (2013) reported finding a decrease in the warming rate from stations on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula between 2001 and 2010, as well as a slight cooling trend for King George Island (in the South Shetland Islands just off the peninsula). Similarly, in an analysis of the regional stacked temperature record over the period 1979-2014, Turner et al. (2016) reported a switch from warming during 1979-1997 to cooling thereafter (1999-2014). And now, in 2017, we have a third assessment of recent temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula confirming that the canary is alive and well!
No hockeystick happening there then.
h/t to GWPF
REFERENCE
Oliva, M., Navarro, F, Hrbácek, F., Hernández, A., Nývlt, D., Pereira, P., Ruiz-Fernández, J. and Trigo, R. 2017. Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere. Science of the Total Environment 580: 210-223.
Thanks, Jo Nova, for showing the public how fear is used to manipulate and control the public.
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This cyclic change is seasons is a good time to remember that the whole universe is in good hands.
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Does red thumb fear truth?
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In 1935, Dr. Carl von Weizsacker first successfully “sold” an altered view of reality: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_Science.pdf
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Weizsacker (1935) persuaded Chadwick (1935) that neutrons and Hydrogen atoms must be two different fundamental particles that still retain a mass difference of 0.782 MeV after combined to form heavier elements.
Weizsacker’s (1935) model disagreed with earlier findings of Prout (1815), Einstein (1905), Rutherford (1920), Aston (1922) and Chadwick (1932), but Weizsacker’s (1935) model is itself refuted by the energy released in every known beta-decay:
The W/C model (1935) has a systematic error and predicts energy release in beta decay that is
_ a.) Consistently 0.782 MeV greater than the actual energy released in positron-emission or electron-capture, and
_ b.) Consistently 0.782 MeV less than the actual energy released in electron-emission
31
The Left is now unabashedly using lies at every turn. They don’t even care any more, as they realise that they can get away with it, as the MSM are all in it together.
It doesn’t matter that there are sites such as this to provide an alternative viewpoint, as the vast majority of the population aren’t even aware that they exist and, where someone points these sites out, the warming worriers will immediately proclaim the sites as fake news.
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After the deliberate Marxist-influenced dumbing down of the “education” system in Western countries over the last 40yrs or so, I’m not sure there are enough people left with critical thinking skills to swing this around.
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My hope is that the current younger generation (Generation Z), from what I’ve been reading, is rejecting current Leftist dogma in droves. They appear to be respecting the values of their grandparents than that of their parents, for example: https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=55569 or http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3790614/They-don-t-like-drugs-gay-marriage-HATE-tattoos-Generation-Z-conservative-WW2.html etc. One can only hope.
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Bemused I am 72 years old with two young girl grand kids, they are as you put, maths and science lovers that hate BS. They gave me a hand made fridge magnet that say’s “Grandparents plant the seeds of wisdom that last forever” They are good girls smart as whips, they have been fortunate also avoiding the public school system and been allowed to think.
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The paperJo quotes in this article will just put another stake through the heart if the CAGW vampire. Australians regardless if education level hate being made fools of, so proof of them being manipulated will make them cranky…which is good….the MSM and other Collaborators ( i choose this word deliberately, and yes the comparison youre thinking of is what you think it is ) has its day of reckoning coming and come it shall…..
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Even at the height of the WAP hysteria there had been a doubling of snow there since 1850:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL032529/abstract
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Still more falsification of the green blob’s theory that agreement among a self selected elite creates truth and that reality is obliged also to agree and follow the consensus view. Post modernism, post normal science, and post normal truth are being and have been found to be without validity or applicability for this universe. That is except for duping the gullible or any of the countless and clueless power seeking politician.
I, for one, am concerned about only this universe. Any proposed alternate parallel, perpendicular, or otherwise unaligned universe is simply going to have to get along without my agreement, acceptance, or willingness to help save them.
Although, a really good science fiction story can be entertaining. However, the green blob has yet to write one that is credible enough to suspend credulity for the sake of the story, let alone to be entertaining.
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Lionell, Stephen. Thank you for you informative and very useful comments. It is so refreshing to read reasoned and helpful statements after so many years of global warming/climate change fear mongering.
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I have always seen climate science as being and exact process.
The scientist has to choose the exact start point for a trend-line, in order to produce the most alarming impression of the supposed outcomes. 1965 would be my pick, because it allows me to claim that “the last two generations, have only known overall warming conditions”.
It means nothing of course, like any other product of applied psychology.
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Anyway, I am off into the bush today, for my ritual Easter of getting very wet, very cold, and very sore around the knee joints. Have fun in my absence.
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I’m surprised at you.
You should be going to Bathurst, to support those endangering themselves in an effort to produce more plant food.
You can get equally as cold wet & sore on Mount Panorama as you can in the bush.
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Rereke is going into the NZ bush, which has superior cold and wet.
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And there is huntable deer in our bush. This is the time of the year we call “The Roar” after all the stags calling, wooing their hinds.
I guess a hunting rifle on Mt Panorama would stir up some real excitement.
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Only if it wins the race….
20
Have fun and good luck.
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The inflection point near 2000 is when I first noted that jet stream tracks were starting to loop about more meridionally whereas the AGW proposition at that time was that the jets were moving poleward and becoming more zonal as a result of human activities.
I have been pointing out that disconnect since 2007.
The significance is that more meridional, looping jets produce more clouds than more zonal, straighter tracks which is important for global albedo and the amount of solar energy able to enter the oceans.
Zonal jets – warming world, meridional jets – cooling world.
The sun controls the balance between the two by affecting the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles via solar induced changes in ozone quantities in the stratosphere above the poles.
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
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And that meridional flow pattern around the Arctic is brining unseasonal cold to a good bit of Europe right now. By May the loop of cold will be coming to the US after what is going to be a record warm April for most of eastern half of the country. In the US in the spring when we have those loops of cold extend down they collide with the warm moist air coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and result in a very active Tornado season as we’re having now. Quite a change from the last few years which had tornado season well below the average. So I suspect that before long global warming” will be moving into Tornado alley.
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Hubert Lamb once commented that US tornado activity and strength increased during the Little Ice Age, but he acknowledged it was hard to prove.
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I have often wondered how Hubert Lamb would entertain this current problem.This malaise.
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His son commented that he would not have been happy.
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Lamb,of course set up the Climate Research Unit ( CRU) at NorwichI have the pleasure of knowing a chap who understudied with him. Always held in high regard.
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Lamb completed his memoirs in his final year 1997, months before Kyoto. In it he laments:
“It is unfortunate that studies produced nowadays treat these and other matters related to changes of climate as if they are always, and only, attributable to the activities of Man and side-effects on the climate.
“Since my retirement from the directorship of the Climatic Research Unit there have been changes there… My immediate successor, Professor Tom Wigley, was chiefly interested in the prospects of world climate being changed as a result of human activities,…After only a few years almost all the work on historical reconstruction of past climate and weather situations, which had first made the Unit well known, was abandoned.”
Guest post by Bernie Lewin at Bishop Hill.
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Stephen ‘a cut off low’ saw the Australian Alps covered in snow last week, very early in the season. At roughly the same time Darwin shivered from a ‘cold air outbreak’, totally freaked out the thin blooded Territorians.
Do you think there is a connection?
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Yes. Winter’s coming.
But seriously, I think this is going to be a very cold one.
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According to BoM temperatures will be travelling above average across most of Australia, except for the Top End where they are expecting below average temps.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary
20
Has any one checked out the ITER its slowly progressing nicely. If this works out at 10 to 1 50MW to 500MW output sustained then its on to the next stage and will eventually make all these wind turbines relics of the developing age. The next stage after this is 30 to 50 times the input energy.
60
Im sure Tony has checked this fusion out its such a long time out though but now with this 30 billion ITER is finally getting close and will happen eventually. It makes this RET even more ridiculous because its totally pointless wind and solar can never provide our base load power. We may as well just keep using coal and fission until fusion comes on line mid century.
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I think you are on the wrong thread, mate.
You need to put those comments on the previous thread, where renewable energy is being discussed.
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This truth is very stubborn: “The Universe Is In Good Hands.”
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/HIGHER-POWERZ.pdf
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The conclusion: “This paper is meant to be suggestive only.
We are at the beginning of a new awakening to reality and know only a little.
More will be revealed if we selflessly practice the basic principles of science for the benefit of humanity,
as exemplified by the life and career of Paul Kazuo Kuroda.”
Science will be our path back from darkness into sunlight
21
“While you sidestep the puddles and wrestle with your umbrella, be comforted by this: Northern California is going through the wettest rainy season on record.
The region broke the 34-year-old record for precipitation in one year, the Department of Water Resources reported early Thursday.
The eight-station index for the northern Sierra Nevada, a series of rain gauges positioned from Pacific House to the city of Mount Shasta, showed that 89.7 inches of inches have fallen since the water year began last fall.
The old record was 88.5 inches, in 1982-83.”
http://www.sacbee.com/news/weather/article144379334.html
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/precipapp/get8SIPrecipIndex.action
http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/17041412_jetstream_h120.gif
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http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_ESI.pdf
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I am glad to see such an article published. Five years ago the editor would have to resign for allowing such a heresy. Let’s hope a real science with all its contradictions is coming back.
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Real science has shown the Arctic is cooling and this year we’ve seen some record cold temps in the northern hemisphere
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Well, there are a lot of cold places in the NH and I’m glad I’m not in them atm. I certainly don’t panic re ‘global warming’. Global cooling is another matter.
50
“I am glad to see such an article published. Five years ago the editor would have to resign for allowing such a heresy. Let’s hope a real science with all its contradictions is coming back”
You forget the finer nuances of climate science. Antarctica is in the southern hemisphere. This means that any reduction in antarctic temperature is counted as an increase in “Global temperature”! Warmest year ever,don’t ya know! 🙁
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That would be about right, Will. 🙂
It should really only be counted as an increase in Northern Hemisphere temperature. The Southern Hemisphere doesn’t warm (much, if at all).
20
Al Gore visited Antarctica about 30 years ago and again in 2012, with Richard Branson.
If he goes there again, the ice volume will likely expand and reach Tierra del Fuego.
Can we send him to Venus?
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Far too close: Alpha Centauri’s third planet is the best choice, about 250 years’ travelling time in Ark B…….
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The new Saturn moon that NASA claims has water and may have organisms may interest Gore. The NASA news about this moon was probably a funding drive as climate change is not doing so good for them. It was a totally useless story by them, I don’t understand the relevance
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While turnedoutnoce is being a little facetial here (sorry Dorrie) I just love the way that they dumb down all this talk of Planets in other Solar Systems as being, well, you know, so d@mned close.
Alpha Centauri is the closest Star to us, other than our Sun, and Alpha Centauri is a triple star, and is visible in the night sky as the Pointer farthest from the Southern Cross (Crux)
Even so, it’s 4.37 Light Years away from us here on Earth, you know, so close to us really.
At the current rate of Space Travel technology we have here on Earth, which is 17,500 MPH, a little faster than escape velocity, it would take 167,000 years plus to get there from here on Earth, and that’s the closest Star to us, so any, umm, Planet in a prospective Goldilocks Zone of a Star further out than that would take considerably longer.
Going there? You must be joking!
Tony.
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Apollo 10 achieved 24,761mph.
http://scienceline.ucsb.edu/getkey.php?key=1702
However using “sling shot” maneuvers much greater speeds have been achieved. Pioneer 10 for instance got to 82,000 mph (131,200 kilometers per hour) as it passed by Jupiter.
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/missions/archive/pioneer10-11.html
30
Getting Faster!
After a five-year jaunt through space, NASA’s robotic Juno spacecraft arrived at Jupiter on July 4, 2016, and the gas giant’s impressive gravity accelerated the probe to approximately 165,000 mph (265,000 km/h) relative to Earth. This made Juno the fastest-moving human-made object in history.
http://www.livescience.com/32655-whats-the-fastest-spacecraft-ever.html
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On a related note the Grand Finale for Cassini is coming up whereby it will be plunged into Saturn to both sample the atmosphere and also burn it up to avoid possible biological contamination if it lands on one of the moons.
https://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/news/3000/2017-saturn-tour-highlights/
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Proxima Centauri is the closest star to eadth other than our sun.
Regards
Climate Heretic
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The generic term Alpha Centauri is given to the Star, and, as I mentioned, it is a triple star made up of Alpha Centauri A, B, and C. The small red dwarf that is Alpha Centauri C is also called Proxima Centauri. True, Proxima Centauri is closer at 4.24LY, not visible to the naked eye and is considered to be part of the three Star Alpha Centauri.
Tony.
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Of course he was being facetious…we all love a little joke; most of us anyway.
30
What do you people have against Venus and Alpha Centauri?
Why would you be so nasty to them by sending them Al Gore?
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Well, there is the “Gore Effect” and Venus can chill a few degrees. Alpha C. likely can too.
Earth, meanwhile, might not cool as much with the Gorical gone.
All I’m looking for is escape velocity and a one-way ticket for Al.
Is that too much to ask
60
Gore has always predicted the total melting of the Antarctic and changed the timing when it refused to melt, it just refused to melt, it was frustrating for him but he never considered his dodgy science to be wrong, he always angrily called real scientists, ‘pseudo scientists’ and claimed a few km down the temp is millions of degrees
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This is the moment where Gore says that 2km down the earth is at a temperature of “several million degrees”.
https://youtu.be/kGV7Dr2iDvU
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I hope Gote gets stuck in the ice if he goes to Antarctica again…
30
I think a lot of people involved in the climate change industry do so for the taxpayer funded travel to exotic locations like Antarctica, The Barrier Reef, tropical rain forests, etc..
50
It’s another round of Whack-A-Mole. The alarmists will drop this topic and move onto the next one. They’ll return to the West Antarctic when they have some other data in the future. It’s a shame the media will happily capitulate in promoting the scares and won’t call them on this.
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That’s why it’s “global warming”! It’s always moving around the globe and never stays anywhere for very long. When the “permanent drought” in California ended Global warming moved to other places like the Arctic and Alaska. Later it will at the Great Barrier reef. It really gets around.
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We’ll be in real trouble if it gets as far south as the GBR. All this “Global” stuff is really Northern Hemisphere only. 🙂
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Maybe not, but I used to patrol a certain regional Fudgefaux newspaper and regularly took the alarmists du jour to task over thier cagw drivel and developed some healthy enemies but won out in the end through persistance and always asking for scientific proof, which if course they couldnt provide….
20
Fantail April 15, 2017 at 6:31 am
“It’s another round of Whack-A-Mole”
Should that not be Whack-A-Mole’, because of the Paris COP shindig?
00
All colored regions in the hovmoller plot below depict regions where the flow is blocked according to the blocking index.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_sh/real_time_index_nrm.shtml
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-75.74,-88.22,298
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-75.74,-88.22,298
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Love the ‘nullschool’ global winds. I can see if the deep antarctic air penetrates the strong cyclonic flow which is a permanent barrier, the whole Southern Hemisphere may freeze and cause mass evacuation and change this planet forever
30
Ren,
Can you explain what the term “geopotential height gradient (anomaly)” might mean to mere earthlings? Is not geopotential height but a made up meteorological fantasy with no scientific meaning?
Albert April 15, 2017 at 9:15 am
“Love the ‘nullschool’ global winds. I can see if the deep antarctic air penetrates the strong cyclonic flow which is a permanent barrier,”
Permanent barrier, to what precisely? The atmosphere still descends at both poles as it must!
11
You will probably not see a report of this in the media but the weather in SE Australia for the last 4 days has been extremely, gloriously brilliant and looks like staying the same for the entire Easter period and beyond. Wonderful for the school kids on holiday, golfers, hikers, surfers and any-one who enjoys the outdoors with light winds, majestic sunrises and sunsets, emerald green landscapes and flat shiny blue seas.
Just heard a comment on the TV golf from S Carolina also – “the weather doesn’t get better than this”. The last days of the “Masters” in Augusta Georgia was the same. Why oh why do we only get the bad reports and not what a wonderful place the world is?
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Good weather is natural, bad weather is man-made and BAAADDDD!!!
I have never heard anyone mention that the weather they like is due to global warming/climate change.
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An ad hoc hypothesis will be dreamed up to account for this within the CAGW narrative no doubt, as always.
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Its under control manalive, propaganda relies on a lot of ifs and buts.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctica-rsquo-s-sleeping-ice-giant-could-wake-soon/
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“The researchers say that they have some intriguing preliminary results from the most recent interglacial period, between 129,000 and 116,000 years ago—when the globe was as warm as it is today.” Errr, Would that be when fossils tell us that there were giraffes, lions, elephants and hippos in the Thames Valley?
As for the edge of the land being below sea level haven’t they heard about isostatic rebound? Even wikipedia has –
“Post-glacial rebound (also called either isostatic rebound or crustal rebound) is the rise of land masses that were depressed by the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period, through a process known as isostatic depression.”
So ice melts, land rises, less sea water gets in.
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‘Antarctica is well below sea level, which makes it more vulnerable to the warming ocean than previously thought.’
The Southern Ocean is cooling, which makes East Antarctica less likely to collapse.
40
That would be the Eemian interstadial. It peaked about 3 degrees C warmer than the Holocene did (which was about 2 degrees warmer than today during the Holocene Optimum).
30
Gotcha covered; see #8.2 above!
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The standout data showin 3C is Faraday. As they seem to be close together, the real question is why? The variation in the others is nothing exciting, closer to noise .
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Like so much recording, it would be reasonable to be more suspicious of the readings in the 1950s than the most recent readings which all appear to be coming together. Average temperature is also a tricky thing. However like coral bleaching and drowning polar bears,the conveient explanation is always Carbon Dioxide, the most evil gas now taxed at over $200 a tonne in caring Australia,a country which is searching for the lowest number of scientists per head of the world’s democracies.
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“Carbon Dioxide, the most evil gas now taxed at over $200 a tonne in caring Australia.”
Do your atmospheric physicists ever even try to get anything correct? What could possibly be a tonne of atmospheric CO2? Tonne is the “weight” equivalent of 1000kg, but only if that mass is subject to the accelerative force of Earth’s gravity, which cannot be true. Airborne CO2 exhibits neutral buoyancy, like airborne bugs and aircraft, can express no weight. Airborne mass remains entirely supported by vertical pressure differential.
Upon landing mass is supported by landing gear compression, a measurement of the newly developed landed ‘weight’! It is physically impossible for Earth’s compressible atmosphere to ‘land’, or express ‘weight’; as clearly demonstrated by Archimedes 271 BC.
All the best! -will-
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Will. Mass is not weight. Weight is mg. Both measured in tons.
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Earth’s Moon has much mass! Please tell me just what the ‘weight’ of Earth’s Moon might be? You to seem to be brainwashed into accepting symbolic formula W = mg, rather that considering just what the symbol (W) might possibly mean (heaviness), and when it is truly not what your brainwashing demands.
Atmosphere exhibits NO heaviness whatsoever. This is what Archimedes carefully demonstrated. Such has never been falsified ever!! Earth’s atmosphere is not crushed to the surface by gravitational acceleration.
Atmosphere is gently compressed by the same gravitational attractive forces. At the same time it is gently rarefied by the repulsion of atmospheric gas molecules to equilibrium everywhere. This is why it takes no work to move “air” anywhere, without acceleration. Something your atmospheric skyintests never considered in their ignorance. This is also why your skyintests have ‘atmospheric mass’ a factor of 3 times what it physically may be!
All the best! -will-
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Hydrostatic Equilibrium
http://burro.astr.cwru.edu/Academics/Astr221/StarPhys/hydrostat.html
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WHY IS MOIST AIR LESS DENSE THAN DRY AIR
AT SAME TEMPERATURE
METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY
The units of density are mass divided by volume (m/V). Density will increase if either mass increases while the volume remains constant or if volume decreases while mass remains constant.
Density of air will vary as the temperature and moisture content in the air varies. When the temperature increases, the higher molecular motion results in an expansion of volume and thus a decrease in density.
The amount of water vapor in the air also effects the density. Water vapor is a relatively light gas when compared to diatomic Oxygen and diatomic Nitrogen. Thus, when water vapor increases, the amount of Oxygen and Nitrogen decrease per unit volume and thus density decreases because mass is decreasing.
The two most abundant elements in the troposphere are Oxygen and Nitrogen. Oxygen has an 16 atomic unit mass while Nitrogen has a 14 atomic units mass. Since both these elements are diatomic in the troposphere (O2 and N2), the atomic mass of diatomic Oxygen is 32 and the diatomic mass of Nitrogen is 28.
Water vapor (H2O) is composed of one Oxygen atom and two Hydrogen atoms. Hydrogen is the lightest element at 1 atomic unit while Oxygen is 16 atomic units. Thus the water vapor atom has an atomic mass of 1 + 1 + 16 = 18 atomic units. At 18 atomic units, water vapor is lighter than diatomic Oxygen (32 units) and diatomic Nitrogen (28 units). Thus at a constant temperature, the more water vapor that displaces the other gases, the less dense that air will become.
You may be familiar with the concept that moist air is less dense than dry air. This is true when both have the same temperature or when the moist air is warmer. Said in another way, air with a greater percentage of water vapor will be less dense than air with a lesser percentage of water vapor at the same temperature. Often people erroneously believe that moist air is denser than dry air because very moist air is more difficult to breathe than dry air.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/260/
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The gas in the troposphere always STRIVES to maintain hydrostatic equilibrium.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_EQ_2016.png
20
Why evaporating water causes air movement?
“Avogadro’s law, a statement that under the same conditions of temperature and pressure, equal volumes of different gases contain an equal number of molecules. This empirical relation can be derived from the kinetic theory of gases under the assumption of a perfect (ideal) gas. The law is approximately valid for real gases at sufficiently low pressures and high temperatures.”
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“WHY IS MOIST AIR LESS DENSE THAN DRY AIR AT SAME TEMPERATURE”
That is seldom, if ever, true\correct! If then atmosphere has less than 100% relative humidity (rh) that atmosphere is not ‘moist’ as any ‘moisture’ would be immediately evaporated into water vapor (wv). The only moist atmosphere is saturated with some measure of H2O colloid, which is hugely more dense than gaseous atmosphere, yet still remains airborne.
“The gas in the troposphere always STRIVES to maintain hydrostatic equilibrium.”
That has nothing to do with the atmosphere never expressing weight! Displacing a m³ of atmosphere. (1.2kg at sea level pressure), displaces no mass at all as only space is displaced. Gravitational compression refuses to comply with meteorological nonsense!
All the best! -will-
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ren April 15, 2017 at 5:41 pm
(“Why evaporating water causes air movement?”)
“Avogadro’s law, a statement that under the same conditions of temperature and pressure, equal volumes of different gases contain an equal number of molecules. This empirical relation can be derived from the kinetic theory of gases under the assumption of a perfect (ideal) gas. The law is approximately valid for real gases at sufficiently low pressures and high temperatures.”
You have not in any way, established that evaporating water can cause air movement! Indeed over most ocean the surface millimeters are in (scientific) hydrostatic equilibrium with rate of evaporation exactly the same as rate of condensation maintaning 100 % rh within that few mm. Only externally generated lateral surface wind can disturb such equilibriun and carry away the top few molecules of lower density wv! This is getting tiresome! 🙂
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That is certainly the meteorological expression for meteorological fantasy. The atmosphere is only ‘hydro’ anything when supersaturated, like most of the time. Your meteorology folk have only fantasy, never any science!
24
Will, “Atmosphere exhibits NO heaviness whatsoever”. Really? Please explain air pressure. 101 kPa or 14.7 psi at sea level.
Your hardly notice it. Air is not weightless. That’s about a ton per square foot or ten tons per square meter.
More obviously in the ocean, you get one atmosphere of pressure every 10 metres. With an average depth of 3.4Km, this means the atmosphere is 340x as heavy as the atmosphere above. These pressures are a measure of weight.
Mass is the basic concept. Weight is the observed force on a mass exerted between that mass and another mass, gravity F=gM1M2/r^2, Newton’s law of gravitation. In space, a mass weighs nothing, but the mass has not changed. Newton came up with this 300 years ago.
No brainwashing required.
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TdeF
April 15, 2017 at 7:14 pm
“Will, “Atmosphere exhibits NO heaviness whatsoever”.”
Can your brainwashing dogma find even one error in the demonstration of Archimedes 271BC? Well before some illusion of mass. Science not fantasy!
10
“More obviously in the ocean, you get one atmosphere of pressure every 10 metres. With an average depth of 3.4Km, this means the atmosphere is 340x as heavy as the atmosphere above. These pressures are a measure of weight.”
Neither atmosphere nor ocean exhibit (have) weight! Weight ‘must be’ a vector, while pressure ‘must be’ a scalar; the two can never exhibit equivalence!
This is again the compressive, not accelerative, force of a large mass on its own surface mass. because atmosphere is compressible most all believe atmospheric mass to be PI times its actual mass.
To calculate said masses the incompressible ocean H20 expresses a near constant density, but again no weight, as it also remains self buoyant within its own environment. A submarine “must” adjust its own ‘density’ via mechanically compressing its own air, (pressure), until it also achieves self-buoyancy at that depth. The term ‘weight’ can only apply to the unbalanced gravitational force, or heaviness. The submarine, fish, ocean, atmosphere, and all airborne mass; bugs, birds, aircraft, and water condensate; remain self-buoyant, thus ‘weightless’! Only your own fanciful belief system of (W)eight = mg, brainwashed by someone much less intelligent than you, would allow acceptance of any nonsense claimed by academic meteorologists!
All the best! -will-
10
Hello Will,
I’m just back from along week end at the national folk festival in Canberra.
Unfortunately Tildy Chandler from Nth Carolina was not there this year. But there were others from the USA.
I understand what you are getting at but that is not to say that parts of the atmosphere and parts of the ocean do not have weight and I would strongly resist your idea that atmosphere is always weightless and that it can move without any energy expenditure.
Consider one hundred cubic metres of atmosphere.
It has a mass of 122.5 kg at NPT.
Now, if it was possible for the sun to heat only that 100 cubic metres, then it would expand it’s boundaries and become less dense than the surrounding air.
It Will rise and create a partial vacuum.
Another parcel of unheated gas will then be drawn into the space vacated.
The movement of the air upwards was only possible because of the energy supplied by the sun.
Energy was consumed in the movement of the air. No free rides as far as I can see.
Unless, of course. How could I be so dumb.
Solar power is free: it doesn’t cost anything.
KK
20
KinkyKeith April 17, 2017 at 7:39 pm
“I understand what you are getting at but that is not to say that parts of the atmosphere and parts of the ocean do not have weight and I would strongly resist your idea that atmosphere is always weightless”
If you try to define the word “weight” the way it was used in 271BC as a measure; of grain, wood, metal, anything, etc; as a substitute for volume; bushels, cords, coins; prior to the discovery of “mass”, which came 1600 years later, you can start to understand the scientific difficulty that Archimedes had with with his ‘principle’; which also why ships float if you are not ignorant!! Displacing a m³ of atmosphere displaces zero of your newly discovered atmospheric mass, As gravity automagically re adjusts so only vacuum is displaced. Newton actually commented on this buoyancy and agreed with Archimedes! Weight can only be some indicator of the unopposed force of local gravity on Newtons new mass and of course accelerate that mass at mg if that force is unopposed. Thus ‘weight is never a property of mass itself but the product (mg) and only when the weighing instrument is providing all of the countering force to inhibit gravitational acceleration. A passenger standing on a scale on a flying aircraft has ‘weight’, the aircraft has no weight untill such lands creating a measurement of ‘weight’ on the landing struts! It is the grossly ignorant academics that try to replace a measurement with alphabet soup like W = mg!!!
“and that it can (not) move without any energy expenditure.”
Atmosphere being self buoyant remains not affected by the force of gravity which is only continuously adjusting density, pressure, and temperature according to PV = Nrt; for any fixed (Nr). Movement takes no application of power\energy. only acceleration\deceleration requires the application of force\power\work. This is why atmosphere (Nr) at high altitudes have no increase in potential energy, over that at low altitudes. Energy in a gravitational field is not necessarily conserved, as per Emmy Noether 1915!
“Consider one hundred cubic metres of atmosphere.
It has a mass of 122.5 kg at NPT.”
OK! At the equator that very 122kg is moving tangentially eastward at 1000MPH (447m/s) what is its momentum? resolve that momentum into angular and radially outward momentumS. Since gravity is not an attractive force what force is applied to decrease that radial momentum?? That is correct, instead the low pressure surface is continuously re-filled with atmosphere ‘from poleward’. At the same time at some altitudes equator pressure is increasing causing a diversion poleward while loosing a wee bit of angular momentum. If you are an ignorant academic meteorologist, with no solid geometry, looking at the atmosphere from some spot on the surface that surly appears strange and generates almost all that weird fantasy that they must spout along with the computer generated CAGW nonsense!
“Now, if it was possible for the sun to heat only that 100 cubic metres, then it would expand it’s boundaries and become less dense than the surrounding air.(?) It Will rise and create a partial vacuum.(?) Another parcel of unheated gas will then be drawn into the space vacated. (?)”
Why? why? and why? because some meteorology text said so?
“The movement of the air upwards was only possible because of the energy supplied by the sun. Energy was consumed in the movement of the air. No free rides as far as I can see.”
Insolation does indeed expand the nearest atmosphere greatly by locally increasing both sensible and latent heat of that atmosphere. The big expansion is that airborne water condensate at 1 g/cm³ being converted to WV with a few g/m³ continuously as new cold compact atmosphere appears at the western limb! The Cal Tech guys had this much calculated by happy hour on the first day! That same asymmetrical insolation has had them in tears ever since!
“Unless, of course. How could I be so dumb. Solar power is free: it doesn’t cost anything.”
Even better such makes all the flowers bloom. Then all the nice critters come out to munch on the Daises!
All the best! -will-
30
Hi Will,
Above I did say air is not always weightless and now ask your comment on the role of air in turning wind turbines.
In a sense many solids have an internal buoyancy effect.
Take for example a block of pure lead or if you prefer, pure gold.
Left at rest these materials will slump under Earth’s gravitational pull in much the same way as the atmosphere does.
I think that air can, at times, have weight when it moves in response to pressure differences. This horizontal motion is, of course, independent of any buoyancy effect at that time.
00
(Wayback) KinkyKeith April 17, 2017 at 7:39 pm
(“I understand what you are getting at but that is not to say that parts of the atmosphere and parts of the ocean do not have weight and I would strongly resist your idea that atmosphere is always weightless”)
You, like TdeF, seem to have a problem with the colloquial definition of ‘words’, as opposed to the academic arrogance of replacing ‘meaning’ with symbolic algebra, such as W(eight) = mg! To me this seems to be the whole fraud of the CAGW mess.
Instead of the symbol (W) for ‘work’ with much different ‘meaning’ from ‘energy’ (E); instead academia sloppily teach/insist W = mg! This requires no distinction between (G) and (g); and also no understanding of mass (m) or its own associated ‘inertia’ or ‘momentum’, (a function of both mass and velocity)!
No wonder the Climate Clowns have scammed the masses!
The noun ‘weight’ comes from the the verb ‘to weigh’ as in the anchor or measure by placing upon a scale. this means that weight is never a property of mass but only a ‘measurement’ of m x (local g). The mass property mG is never used except to ‘carefully’ indicate mass coulomb gravitational potential mG/r.
(“and that it can move without any energy expenditure.”)
I did not claim that, but such is true! Power/force is needed only to modify ‘momentum’ (mv), else motion persists.
KinkyKeith April 18, 2017 at 12:21 pm
“Hi Will, Above I did say air is not always weightless and now ask your comment on the role of air in turning wind turbines.”
Please make the distinction of air within a container, where weight is a measure of the mass of air, if you know g; and atmosphere external to its container where none of your ‘weight fantasy’ exists.
Some of that wind “momentum” is exchanged to provide electrical power. This is why wind power is not free, and certainly not renewable! The wind-farm resulting decrease in Earth’s angular momentum is already measurable!
“In a sense many solids have an internal buoyancy effect. Take for example a block of pure lead or if you prefer, pure gold. Left at rest these materials will slump under Earth’s gravitational pull in much the same way as the atmosphere does.”
Not a solid, else not a solid! Semi-liquids, glass, moist concrete do slump!
“I think that air can, at times, have weight when it moves in response to pressure differences. This horizontal motion is, of course, independent of any buoyancy effect at that time.”
The ‘atmosphere’ has inertia, and relative momentum, always requiring force to change. Pressure can do that in any direction.
OTOH Earth’s atmosphere is maintained in a pressure, density, temperature gradient with altitude, maintained by Earth’s gravitational potential. This is by definition the atmosphere’s self-buoyancy at any location. The important part is that atmospheric motion remains isentropic (no entropy), except for your damned wind-farms causing the surface to increase in sensible heat (temperature).
All the best! -will-
20
Hi Will,
OK, it seems that you do acknowledge that air can have momentum, and we know that the air is required to stay “at rest or in a state of uniform motion” unless acted on by some external force.
Just what is that force, does it supply energy to the system.
In the mornings here we have winds being drawn to the East, later in the afternoon they’re drawn to the West.
What causes this variation in movement.
CO2?
KK
20
Will, if I can sum up.
It seems that we are using different “models” to achieve the same understanding of the situation.
Just that your model is more sophisticated.
🙂 KK
KK
20
KinkyKeith April 19, 2017 at 8:06 am
“Hi Will, OK, it seems that you do acknowledge that air can have momentum, and we know that the air is required to stay “at rest or in a state of uniform motion” unless acted on by some external force.”
Oh Yes! It is the atmospheric momentum, not air mass or air weight; that supplies the power, that in a US tornado can spread a ‘mobile home park’ across several km² vastly increasing the ‘entropy’ of the pieces\parts left! 🙂
Keith, I can generally distinguish the difference when you write about about air in a bottle, and external air held in place by the gravitational field of the bottle (atmosphere). Most folk reading here have no clue as to the distinction, as they were brainwashed into (same air)!
“Just what is that force, does it supply energy to the system.”
Keith, I’ve studied this since retirement (23 years). I still do not know! I have however ‘learned’ that it is way, way, different than what the self proclaimed 97% overeducated incompetent re-searchers proclaim. These folk have never even searched, let alone re-searched!
“In the mornings here we have winds being drawn to the East, later in the afternoon they’re drawn to the West. What causes this variation in movement.”
I think an inexplainable combination of insolation, spin (Earth’s centrifuge), and all the gory details of compressible fluid dynamics! This is further futzed up by the gravity and angular momentum of all other Solar system bodies; exchanging power with every other!
KinkyKeith April 19, 2017 at 9:09 am
“Will, if I can sum up. It seems that we are using different “models” to achieve the same understanding of the situation.”
If ‘POV’ is synonymous with ‘model’, I agree!
“Just that your model is more sophisticated.”
I do not like being identified with a sophomore or Sophist! My POV consists of all that I can find; including that ‘taught’ by ‘educators’. I find that most complex and disturbing.
They all must agree to the same physical; but few do! I find that most peer reviewed POVs are but an intent to deceive for financial gain.
All the best! -will-
20
The Faraday (formerly the Vernadsky Research Base) is located on a small island off the Antarctic Penninsula. As such, surface temperatures are highly influenced by the extent of the sea ice, which entraps the island for part of the year. In the Arctic Svalbard average temperatures increased by about 3C in the last 30 years (and at least 2C in the early twentieth century) due to this factor.
60
Good point Kevin,
Plus there is the influence of the Atlantic Ocean as shown here from http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7484/full/nature12945.html
20
Locations of all the Antarctic stations mentioned in the research paper –>
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/311631630_fig1_Fig-1-Location-of-the-AP-within-the-Antarctic-continent-b-Detail-of-the-South
10
Faraday is on the Galindes Island which lies between Argentina and mainland Antractica. It is at -65.20 degrees latitude. It is almost 25 degrees away from the South Pole – only a little less than the distance between Brisbane and the Equator. Its data should be ignored.
https://www.google.com.au/maps/search/+Galindez+Island+in+the+Argentine+Islands,+Antarctica/@-65.2011632,-73.1740499,5z
41
And the antarctic peninsula area is subject to the vagaries of seismic activity —
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/images/pics8/figure_1_larsen_b.jpg
20
and active volcanoes erupting under the ice cap. That gave (or is giving) the Pine glacier a real hurry up. Centrally heated ice melts pretty quickly.
40
An interesting point about the start of the data. The Esperanza Base at 63°24′S, 56°59′W, was only founded in 1953. Faraday Base at 65°15′S, 64°16′W, was founded in 1947. They are hardly in the Antarctic Circle is located at 66°33′46.6″ S. Before this nearest temperature thermometers for the whole of Antarctica was Base Orcadas located at 60.8 S 44.7 W, over 500 km North of the Antarctic Circle. The geniuses at NASA GISS have used this data as a proxy for the bottom 5% of the globe. Problem is that the average temperature anomalies for Base Orcadas are highly variable and in the period 1930 to 1930 saw a drop of 2C. This partially offsets the early twentieth century warming in the Northern Hemisphere. Check out the claims for yourselves here.
62
2004: Why Antarctica will soon be the only place to live – literally
“Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming remains unchecked, the Government’s chief scientist, Professor Sir David King, said last week.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/why-antarctica-will-soon-be-the-only-place-to-live-literally-58574.html
Wait. What?
The same Professor Sir David King, 77, who was the architect of the policy to cut fuel duty for diesel cars as Tony Blair’s personal scientist?
April 4 2017, he admitted he got it wrong.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/04/fuel-duty-cut-for-diesel-cars-was-wrong-says-ex-chief-science-adviser
. . .
Based on the 97% science used, what else did he get ‘wrong’?
Seems an ‘wrong’ apology for antarctica is long overdue.
51
Anyone who worked for Tony Blair got it wrong, simply being associated with him.
Another prize left wing jerk.
70
Blur is a pathological liar and like his missus, believed in all sorts of kooky earth-worshipping stuff…..
10
from North Lake Tahoe, California:
14 Apr: SierraSun: Big winter to impact summer recreation at Lake Tahoe
The Northern Sierra Nevada is approaching its all-time wettest “water year” — October through September — after last week’s spring storms brought another 10 – 40 inches of snow to the Sierra…
As of Sunday, the northern Sierra was less than an inch of water away from the record of 88.5 inches set during the 1982-83 water year, according to The Weather Channel.
Consequently, the lake level is higher than it’s been in years. As of Tuesday, it’s sitting at 6,227.5 feet — 4.5 feet above its natural rim…
With above average snowpack and spring storms, snow is expected to linger at higher elevations well into the summer months, which is something for hikers and bikers to keep in mind.
“During the last big snowpack year in 2011, the lowest trails like Powerline melted off early May, but we didn’t get up into the high country until mid-July — up to the Rim Trail and most places,” said Ben Fish, Tahoe Area Mountain Biking Association (TAMBA) president.
Deeper snowpack this year could mean some high-elevation trails will have snow patches all summer.
“We try to teach trail etiquette and tell people to go over the snow banks, not around them. Otherwise you end up with shooter trails that are a headache to fix and mess up the natural environment,” explained Fish…
While mountain bikers might be eager for the snow to melt, the ski resorts are reaping the benefits of a snowy spring.
Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe is set to stay open until May 29, while Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows is not closing until July 4.
http://www.sierrasun.com/news/local/big-winter-to-impact-summer-recreation-at-lake-tahoe/
13 Apr: Sierra Sun: Ben Rogers: Opinion: What a winter, is it over yet?
Earlier this week I was talking with one of our advertisers about all the different names that we have come up with for this winter. From “snowpocalypse” and “snow-mageddon” you know you have a monster of a season when we start to throw around made-up words to describe it.
I can safely say that this winter has left me in a state of complete amazement. I am still in disbelief when I look at the 10 feet of snow still sitting by my driveway, even after it has melted, a lot.
As much as I love the winter, I think I can speak for most of us when I say enough is enough.
At this point, a few more sunny days and fewer power outages and feet of snow to shovel would be welcome.
Just this last weekend I was amazed at how much it still looks like winter…
It has been a great winter. The skiing has been incredible with conditions are arguably the best that many of us have been alive to see…
As the snow starts to melt and this crazy winter draws to a close. I am excited to be able to go for a run on a nice singletrack trail.
Although at this rate that won’t be till sometime in July
http://www.sierrasun.com/news/local/opinion-what-a-winter-is-it-over-yet/
41
14 Apr: CBC: Snowfall warning continues for Edmonton, other parts of Alberta
Accumulation could reach up to 30 cm in some areas before the snow tapers off Saturday morning…
Environment Canada’s Yun says not to expect sunshine and flowers once the snow tapers off.
“We’re looking at our extended charts and it looks like the warmer air is going to be slow to come back, at least for the next week or so,” Yun said. “For the next little while I think, even after the snow, look for below-seasonal temperatures and a fair bit of cloud cover through our area.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/weather-alberta-spring-storm-roads-snow-1.4071253
14 Apr: CBC: Winter storms affecting long weekend travel in some parts of Saskatchewan
35 centimetres of snow expected for central and northern parts of the province Saturday
Maidstone RCMP officers are urging drivers not to travel on Highways 17 and 303 or Highway 16 east of Lloydminster as freezing rain and snow create slippery sections…
Environment Canada said there was also a possibility of up to 45 centimetres in localized areas…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/winter-storm-lightning-april-14-2017-1.4071177
31
CO2/global warming causes late snow.
As a matter of fact, if we get much more global warming, it will be snowing all over the planet, non-stop.
The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
90
read all:
13 Apr: Scripps: Northern California Just Surpassed the Wettest Year on Record
Atmospheric rivers, a key focus of Scripps research center, responsible for record-breaking rain
Researchers said today that Northern California has been inundated with 228 centimeters (89.7 inches) of precipitation already this winter, surpassing 1983’s 225 centimeters (88.5 inches) for the full water year (ending in September) to make this the wettest full water year in recorded history in this key region. The nearly 90 inches is the combination of rain and the liquid equivalent of snow that has fallen.
“It’s a 34-year-old record that’s been broken,” said Dr. F. Martin (Marty) Ralph, Director of the Center for Western Water and Weather Extremes (CW3E) at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.
Ralph says there could be even more rain to come, meaning the record will be broken by an even larger margin.
Rainfall is measured during “water years,” which run from Oct. 1 of one year to Sept. 30 of the next year, so there are still five months remaining in the water year 2017, though normally summers are dry…
With the never-before-observed back to back months of 20 inches per month in January and February 2017 (each with an extreme atmospheric river), it is fitting that this year has become the record for an entire water year, said California State Climatologist Michael Anderson with the California Department of Water Resources…
“Another vital difference from 1983’s wet year: much more of the precipitation that year came down as snow. Although we broke the record for annual precipitation, the amount of snowpack in the Sierra (about 163 percent of normal through April 1, 2017) is much less than there was in 1983 (more than 227 percent of normal),” said Mike Dettinger of the U.S. Geological Survey and CW3E.
“The West has warmed up substantially since 1983,” Dettinger said…READ ALL
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/northern-california-just-surpassed-wettest-year-record
31
here comes a new scare:
13 Apr: UK Independent: Ian Johnston: World must hit zero carbon emissions ‘well before 2040’, scientists warn
New research suggests it will be an ‘enormous challenge’ to prevent global warming getting out of hand
Commenting on the study, Professor Richard Betts, head of climate impacts at the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre, said the “important” research spelled out the “enormous challenge” ahead…
The new study, described in a paper in the journal Nature Communications (LINK), is one of the first to use the new FeliX computer model, which includes social and economic factors along with environmental ones…
One of the researchers, Dr Michael Obersteiner, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis near Vienna, said: “The FeliX model … provides a unique systemic view of the whole carbon cycle, which is vital to our understanding of future climate change and energy…
Professor Betts, of Exeter University, who has played a leading role in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s work, said the research should help world leaders establish what they have to do…
“Once again, climate scientists are sounding an alarm to remind us of the urgent need to act now to tackle climate change,” (Gareth Redmond-King, head of climate and energy policy, WWF) said.
“Melting ice caps, dying coral reefs, plummeting wildlife populations, rising sea levels and extreme weather – they all get worse and worse as the Earth’s temperature rises.”…
(LINK) The FeliX model is freely available to be downloaded and used by anyone.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/world-zero-carbon-emissions-before-2040-two-decades-climate-change-global-warming-greenhouse-gases-a7682001.html
31
Hold your breath!
NO MORE EMISSIONS.
60
Early on in my original Kyoto Series back in 2008, I toyed with the idea of working out how much CO2 was actually exhaled by all the humans on Earth, and then worked out for a whole year to compare it with the CO2 emissions from an average large scale coal fired power plant.
Easy for the power plant actually, around 18 million tonnes give or take for an old tech sub critical plant of 60/70’s technology.
For human expired breath, the Maths was a bit too much, but it would be an interesting exercise.
Tony.
61
Hmmm. So maybe the melty bits were due to things happening within and below? Connected with that subglacial ash sheet the size of Wales and still-active volcanism near Pine Island Glacier? And/or currents we don’t know too much about yet?
Observation may be vulgar, but if the Antarctic Peninsula looks like a cordillera, walks like a cordillera and quacks like a cordillera…
70
“la cordillera”
?? Like all of the Andes SA? What is the thinest part of the glacier?
31
As a PhD scientist, I am offended by the nonsense that now passes as “science”. This is perhaps the biggest crisis science has ever had in terms of widespread lack of adherence to the scientific method.
130
The scientific method.
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/notorious-ocean-current-is-far-stronger-than-previously-thought
Its a global cooling signal.
30
The main point of this study-the good news-is that the Antartic temperature trend does not support the Co2 claims
GeoffW
70
That is correct Geoff, Antarctica is getting cooler, along with a cooling Southern Ocean and a strengthening of the circumpolar winds and currents.
50
What’s everyone so exercised over? Of course it’s the most rapidly warming area of the planet. Sheehsh! It’s warming the coffers of The Independent so fast they’re renting extra armored trucks to haul the money to the bank. If it gets much hotter in that bank account all the records will melt so I’d suggest bringing in portable coolers. Digital meltdown is a bad problem. With all those ones and zeros getting liquid you can’t hardly get it all beck together. So of course it’s an emergency requiring immediate government action.
The public does suck this stuff up ya know. And the first rule of being in business is a very simple one, sell what the customer will buy. And the customer always wants bad news.
50
Some days I suspect global warming was just a cynical ploy to make money from thin air.
Other days I’m convinced of it.
80
It’s the start of another ice-age.
We’re doomed.
40
Part of the problem when talking about the Antarctica is the lack of appreciation of its size —
Comparison of Antarctica to USA
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/images/581238main_USA_Antarctica_size-orig_full.jpg
Comparison of Antarctica to Australia
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0009/170298/varieties/antarctic.png
So consider just how big an area the Antarctic truly is, and ask yourself when reading any report purporting to say what is happening to all, or part of the Antarctic, is it being reasonable considering the size of the place. That small looking Antarctic Peninsula is a large area, compare it to Italy or to Florida.
40
Antarctica Fact File, well one of them anyway, is at this link.
Scroll down and on the left is a sub heading titled Ice and below that Thickness.
Note the maximum thickness of the ice there, 4776 Metres, and for some perspective, that’s more than twice the height of Mount Kosciuszko, the highest peak in Australia.
Just to the right of that Ice Thickness heading is a list of Antarctic History, and click on the Shackleton (Endurance) Expedition. Shackleton’s own Account of that expedition is in his book titled South, probably one of the best factual novels I have ever read. Amazing story.
Tony.
61
Thanks for that link Tony. Out of curiosity I calculated how much ice must melt to raise global sea level by just 1 metre. It came to 400,000 cubic kilometres, and that must be ice above sea level. Any ice below sea level is displacing more water than it will replace. Now look up the heat capacity of ice and calculate the energy required to melt that much ice. Remember to add 2 joules per kg for every degree below zero. Big number! Next I tried to find a timescale. Decided 10,000 years was best fit without frying the rest of the world.
Can’t say i’m bothered about sea level rise. My house overlooks the local harbour so I am watching. Nothing to report yet. 🙂
80
14 Apr: Uni of California Santa Cruz: Climate experts release latest science on sea level rise projections
By Samuel Chiu, California Natural Resources Agency
In a compelling analysis of the factors that affect how much the ocean will rise along California’s coast in coming decades, a seven-member team of experts led by UC Santa Cruz geologist Gary Griggs has issued a report on the best-available sea-level rise science…
The report also emphasizes the importance of preparing for extreme but uncertain scenarios involving the rapid loss of the Antarctic ice sheet, which would have an enormous impact on coastal regions. In one such scenario, sea levels along California’s coastline could rise up to 10 feet by 2100, about 30 to 40 times faster than sea-level rise experienced over the last century…
The new science report was requested by the California Ocean Protection Council and the California Natural Resources Agency, in collaboration with the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research, the California Energy Commission, and the California Ocean Science Trust. Expertise on the scientific team includes risk assessment, climatic change, ice sheet behavior, and statistical modeling.
The science report will be presented on April 26 at a meeting in Sacramento of the Ocean Protection Council…
Among their key findings…
◾Mountain glaciers contain enough ice to raise sea levels by only about 1.5 feet. In contrast, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contain enough ice to raise global mean sea level by 24 feet and 187 feet, respectively. Although these ice sheets are not expected to melt completely, even on century or millennial timescales, the loss of even a small fraction of either of these huge ice sheets could have devastating consequences for global shorelines.
◾While model results have revealed the potential for high rates of ice loss and extreme sea-level rise during this century if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the precise magnitude and timing of when the Antarctic Ice Sheet may begin to contribute substantially to rising sea levels is uncertain…READ ON
http://news.ucsc.edu/2017/04/sea-level-report.html
11
there’s not much more, thankfully, but read the rest if u wish. pure partisan politial propaganda:
15 Apr: LA Times: Q&A: ‘The world shifts’: Gov. Jerry Brown talks California, climate change and President Trump
by Chris Megerian
1ST QUESTION: Why haven’t more states followed California’s path on climate change?
BROWN: “California has done a very good job. But you can’t force Republicans to deal with climate change in a serious way . . . . I’m not giving up hope. But it has been difficult.”…
2ND QUESTION: Why can it be easier to find partnerships with governments outside the country than with other states?
BROWN: “The Republicans are committed to global warming as a hoax, or irrelevant, or as not a problem. That is their belief. I’m not going to put them in jail. All I can do is talk and encourage good climate actions and demonstrate our economy has benefited here.”
FINAL QUESTION: Will people’s minds change on climate change?
BROWN: “We need the science to continue. The heat, the storms, the sea level rise, the Arctic melting. These are all real facts that over time will sink in. The question is, will that be two years, or five years or 10 years?”
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-gov-jerry-brown-interview-20170415-htmlstory.html
21
On the other hand, the year-to-year temperature variability
is much larger in the Arctic than in the Antarctic stratosphere
(Randel 1988). This, again, is related to planetary
waves. Extreme wave breaking events—known as Stratospheric
Sudden Warmings—occur approximately every other
year in the Arctic (Charlton and Polvani 2007), but have only
occurred once in the Antarctic (Newman and Nash 2005).
These events greatly affect stratospheric temperatures and
transport, directly impacting ozone levels in springtime
(Tegtmeier et al 2008). Hence in Arctic winters with weak
wave driving and no sudden warmings, the stratosphere
becomes extremely cold and experiences reduced poleward
ozone transport, resulting in large observed springtime ozone
minima. The latest instance occurred in March 2011, when
Arctic ozone levels fell to their lowest recorded levels, on par
with levels observed in the Antarctic (Manney et al 2011).
This large interannual variability in Arctic ozone is
depicted in figure 1, which shows the seasonal cycle of the
mean (solid black line) and the range (gray shading) of total
column ozone in Dobson Units (DU), averaged over the
Arctic polar cap (60–90° N) and over the 1979–2011 period.
Note that the range of interannual variability is roughly 30%
of the 400 DU mean value in the month of March (see also
figure 1 of Müller et al 2008).
Whether this large year-to-year variability in Arctic
stratospheric ozone is able to affect the surface climate of the
Northern Hemisphere extratropics is currently unknown.
http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/smith+polvani-ERL-2014.pdf
Are these differences due to the difference in magnetic fields in the north and south?
Ozone as a diamagnetic reacts to the magnetic field.
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Earth_s_magnetic_heartbeat
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_NH_2017.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_SH_2017.png
10
Total Ozone – 0-day forecast – Southern Hemisphere – 2017-April-13
http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/dailyMaps?language=e&fsource=all&fday=all®ion=s
10
time will tell:
14 Apr: Politico: White House showdown on Paris deal set for next week
Advisers and Cabinet officials hope to reach consensus Tuesday, though that could prove difficult: They’re still divided over whether to abandon the agreement.
By Eric Wolff, Andrew Restuccia and Josh Dawsey; Alex Guillén contributed to this report
Bannon and Pruitt are said to be strongly opposed to remaining in the agreement…
Pruitt has emerged in recent days as a staunch opponent of the pact, telling Fox & Friends Thursday that “it’s something we need to exit, in my opinion.”
Two sources told POLITICO that Pruitt is also concerned that the Paris agreement could harm his legal position as he pushes forward with a repeal of Obama’s climate change regulations for power plants…
Conservative groups like the Heritage Foundation have been agitating for the president to keep his campaign promise to withdraw from the agreement…
Trump is expected to make a final decision on Paris by late May, when he and other world leaders will travel to Italy for a G-7 summit.
14 Apr: Bloomberg: Dean Scott: U.S. ‘Needs to Exit’ Paris Climate Pact, EPA Chief Says
The U.S. “needs to exit” the Paris climate pact, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt said April 13, siding with those in the Trump administration who want complete withdrawal from the 2015 agreement reached among nearly 200 nations.
“Well, Paris is something we need to really look at closely, because it’s something we need to exit in my opinion,” Pruitt said during an interview on Fox & Friends, calling the pact a “bad deal” for the U.S…
“China and India had no obligations under the agreement until 2030, we frontloaded all of our costs,” Pruitt said. The EPA head also suggested the U.S. has made more progress than China and India—or even the European Union—in cutting its emissions over the last two decades.
Staying in the Paris pact would mean “contracting our economy to serve and really satisfy Europe and China and India. They are polluting far more than we are,” Pruitt said, noting that U.S. emissions have been cut to levels not seen since the early 1990s…
15 Apr: Irish Times: Henry McGee: Ireland closer to Trump on climate change than it thinks
It’s all talk and no action from Government unwilling to take risks with fragile recovery
What is more worrying is that after 2020, when emissions should be on a steep downward curve, the EPA is predicting they will actually increase in most areas. The two most dominant sectors (outside the emissions trading schemes) are agriculture and transport. With a growing economy, both are expected to increase…
Investment in cycling has been pared back. So has investment in public transport. The Metro North is on the long finger. And on Thursday, the EPA dramatically cut back its projections of how many electric vehicles would be on Irish roads by 2020, from 50,000 to 10,000…
Denis Naughten, in an opinion piece for The Irish Times, has blamed the failure to meet targets on two factors. The first is the recession, which resulted in lack of funds to invest in combating climate change (even though the recession in itself led to big reductions in emissions).
‘Unrealistic target’
The second factor, he says, is the target agreed to by the Irish Government in 2009. He suggests a target of reducing emissions by 20 per cent against 2005 levels is ridiculous, arguing a 7 per cent target would be more realistic.
It is an extraordinary attack. Naughten claims the deal struck by the Greens was disastrous for the State and will cost the economy billions…
There is one unpalatable reality about meeting the targets (unless technology provide a miracle cure for all ailments) and it is this: it will mean sacrifices and inconveniences, both in lifestyle and wealth. It’s a really hard thing to sell to a population: that everybody must live more modestly…
And Ireland is caught between two competing ambitions, which are (right now) irreconcilable. One is economic growth. The other is the climate change obligations imposed on the State by the EU, and more latterly by the Paris Accord. The main plank of agricultural policy, Foodwise 2025, will lead to higher emissions – the Environmental Protection Agency said as much yesterday…
***Naughten has expressed befuddlement at those who criticise him for seeking more scientific evidence and reports…
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/ireland-closer-to-trump-on-climate-change-than-it-thinks-1.3049242
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14 Apr: WUWT: Eric Worrall: EPA Head / Paris Agreement: “It’s something we need to exit in my opinion.”
h/t Breitbart (LINK) – President Trump’s EPA Head Scott Pruitt has given unequivocal support to cancelling US participation in the Paris agreement…
“It’s a bad deal for America,” he continued. “It was an America second, third, or fourth kind of approach. China and India had no obligations under the agreement until 2030. We front-loaded all of our costs.”…
Video of the Fox News interview is available here (LINK)
Time to act on your campaign promise, Mr. President.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/14/epa-head-paris-agreement-its-something-we-need-to-exit-in-my-opinion/
31
Arctic chill will flow to Southern Europe. This will be a shock.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/04/20/0000Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-347.58,48.00,1806
20
Agree, the AO index is about to go negative.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html
10
Exactly.
10
Snow forecast in the Swiss Alps.
http://www.bergfex.ch/schweiz/wetter/schneevorhersage/?t=0_144
10
bristling canary
warmists panties in a twist
41
10
Cooling for two decades or more,
As it cyclically oft did before,
The Antarctic ice sheet,
Won’t add twenty feet,
To sea-level as predicted by Gore.
50
Ardley Island, near the Antarctic Peninsula, is currently home to a population of around 5,000 pairs of gentoo penguins. Using new chemical analyses of penguin guano extracted in sediment cores from a lake on the island, the researchers unraveled the history of the penguin colony. Climate conditions around Ardley Island have been generally favourable for penguins over the last 7,000 years and the team had expected the local population to show minor fluctuations in response to changes in climate or sea ice. The surprising result was that the nearby Deception Island volcano had a far greater impact than originally anticipated.
https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/penguin-colony-repeatedly-decimated-by-volcanic-eruptions/
30
Instead, the main driver of these penguin population changes is volcanism, with colony populations increasing during volcanically inactive periods and then experiencing abrupt catastrophic declines following major eruptions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14914
30
The population dynamics of Adélie and emperor penguins are strongly influenced by the Antarctic environment and climatic variation. Based on the heterozygous sites identified in the penguin genomes, we used the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) method [30] to infer fluctuations in the effective population sizes of the two penguins from 10 MYA to 10 thousand years ago (KYA). From 10 MYA to 1 MYA, both species had relatively small and stable effective population sizes of <100,000, and the populations expanded gradually from ∼1 MYA (Figure 1B). The effective population size of the Adélie penguin appears to have increased rapidly after ∼150 KYA, at a time when the penultimate glaciation period ended and the climate became warmer. This expansion is consistent with the prediction in a previous study based on mitochondrial data from two Adélie penguin lineages [31] and with the recent observations that Adélie populations expanded when more ice-free locations for nesting became available [32]. Notably, at ∼60 KYA, within a relatively cold and dry period called Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS4) [33] in the last glacial period, the effective population size of Adélie penguins declined by ∼40% (Figure 1B and C). By contrast, the effective population size of emperor penguin remained at a stable level during the same period.
https://academic.oup.com/gigascience/article-lookup/doi/10.1186/2047-217X-3-27
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