JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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VESPATION AND HIS SON TITUS CTREATED YOUR RELIGION , CHRTIANTY IS A FAKE RELIGION , WHO WANTS TO C0ME ON AND ARGUE THE TOSS
227
What exactly is the process of C treating a religion?
61
VESPATION?
70
Vespasian and Titus? The two who beseiged (and took) Jerusalem and built the Colosseum, where a lot of christians were fed to the lions (at least according to historical romance writers).
Vespasian came to power as the last in The Year of Four Emperors, which occurred when an widely unpopular emperor committed suicide. Since this emperor was noted for persecuting christians, and had a supply to do so in Rome when Vespasian was in Judea, I cannot see how you can blame Vespasian for starting the religion, or are you claiming that he was derelict in his duty by NOT burning them alive when he became emperor?
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Hi Dave. I’ve no wish to argue the toss but wish you well! I am just eating breakfast before going off to church. As I am on the roster for the intercessions I’ll include you but not by name. I had an experience many years ago which left me in no doubt but am not about to publish it on a public forum. Regards, Annie.
331
I could say the same. But still, doubt creeps in, doesn’t it? My engineer’s mind wants proof but there is none. So I don’t really know…
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That is so Roy; never 100% certainty but I still know what I experienced and cannot pretend it did not happen. My best wishes to you. Annie.
31
And mine to you.
30
I have found that stuff in my life has happened time and time again at such ridiculous mathematical odds, that as it was only God and I knew about, ergo….
40
Obviously, “Dubious Dave,” you have mistaken me for someone who gives an aerobatic assignation about anything a barely literate troll has to say. Come back after you learn to spell and find lower case.
180
“aerobatic assignation”
Actually Jorge.. I’m pretty sure they are anaerobic. 😉
43
I would additionally recommend at least an overview course in Roman history… Although it will apparently take a while before he manages to pass the prerequisite literacy courses.
30
No thank you. I never argue religion with someone who can’t even type and proofread one whole sentence without spelling and punctuation mistakes.
You’ve been hanging around the Internet too long my friend.
170
A reasonable mind can figure out how to turn off CAPS-LOCK.
You may wish to entertain yourself with trying to reason with the unreasonable; but the best you’ll get is a few giggles.
120
Doubtingdave, a simple logical error made by Weizsacker and Chadwick in 1935 generated a lot of the current doubt about religious stories of a benevolent creator and sustainer of life.
A 19-year old student at the Imperial University of Tokyo recognized the mistake on 13 June 1936, but it is still taught in universities worldwide.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/HIGHER-POWERZ.pdf
31
Methinks you mean Constantine the Great
By this sign thou will conquer
20
Well! You made a real mess of that, DD, in your rush to be first and to show how clever you are. Take a deep breath next time and turn your Caps Lock off. Then your spell check might work, even if you don’t read what you have written before posting.
20
THE POINT I AM TRYING TO MAKE , IS THAT YOU PICK AND CHOSE WHAT YOU WANT TO BE SCEPTICAL ABOUT , ITS EASY TO PICK AND CHOSE IF THAT IS WHAT YOU WANT TO DO ISNT IT
325
The singularity may have reached its used by date (its caused nothing but angst and violence) and so in the enlightened 21st century the world should reach out to a multitude of gods .
37
Where scepticism of Roman leaders is concerned Empirical evidence is everything.
In this case the difference between proven facts and opinion is time and its erosion of evidence.
80
Which is no point at all since everyone has free choice of both what to believe and what to be skeptical about.
Still can’t proofread and spell, much less punctuate.
180
My comment is unlikely to pass moderation so I will rephrase it:
You are about 200 years too late Dave. The Enlightenment and the Age of Reason is over.
Right now we are plunging back into a new dark age in which the dark force will confront Green Gaia.
It is way past time to recognise that Christianity underpins the philosophy of Western democracy. If we loose that (WD) the future looks bleak indeed, at least as I see it now.
[Good point but unfortunately we cannot deal with *** in any way on this blog because of 18C.] AZ
101
https://balance1010.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/why-should-darkness-impel-the-mind-and-heart-to-distrust-themselves/
10
Did you mention Voldemort? tisk tisk. 🙂
30
Humanity is currently leaving the long lived global scientific optimum and entering the computerized theoretic curve fitting model era, where past observation are just another variable.
Hold tight it will be a bumpy ride.
60
Wouldn’t that just be a straight line down hill ride?
60
It’s a falling over the edge of a bottomless abyss. The only bump ahead is extinction of what makes us human. After that, nothing else matters because we will have abandon the most important things that makes us what we are.
Since we have free will and the capacity to choose to use reason, we can return from the edge. However, if we don’t use that capacity, nothing else can, will, or should save us.
51
Don’t forget the avalanche of assumptions they make these days. It appears assumptions have more weight than real evidence. Gone are the good old days when science was about the search for a better theory using the scientific method. Now it’s more about the search for a better scam using a variety of unscientific methods.
50
Assumption Avalanches are now rated by a new method of verification, this replaces the outmoded and chaotic ‘scientific method’ —
Assumption Selection Service (ASS) is the new verification and validation method of computerized rating of publications by online public referendum.
This rating has just 3 confidence levels —
Ω. aka Unsettled Science (not to be used to support other theories).
B. aka Mostly Settled Science(limited used to support other theories).
‘PRIMARY’. aka Settled Science (Must be used to support other theories).
Papers not rated are held AWARE.
AWARE (Awaiting Wikipedia Authorized Rewrite Editor).
51
Yes, Peter, the assumed validity of the QM (quantum mechanical) scheme in 1935 convinced two physicists, Weizsacker and Chadwick, to proceed with a logical error about the nucleus,
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Nuclear_Energy_Error7.pdf
Blind faith in the QM model is the tap root of modern consensus science.
45
There was and still is a confusion in theoretical physics between actual reality and the equations used to describe that reality. It is as if reality is supposed to be created by the equations rather than the equations are supposed to fit reality. Often the fit is good enough to use for engineering purposes (ie Newtonian mechanics and laws of motion). All too often, the fit is only good enough for government work and little else (ie Climate Science).
I suggest the issue with QM is that the equations describe events that are much too difficult to observe. Partly because the smaller the feature the more impact measurement has upon it. That fact prohibits seeing the events with the time resolution sufficient to see anything but gross statistical behavior. This, in turn, constrains the equations to be probability statements which are nothing but an estimate of ignorance. Which themselves subject to massive ignorance.
This is the same thing that is going on in the so called science of climate. Equations are substituted for actual observation and their output is presumed to be knowledge about climate. The difference is not because the events are too small and too fast but massively too many with exceedingly complex interactions.
Since the practitioners of such things are not willing to say they are only measuring their degree of ignorance, they act as if their equations create reality. They presume output of their equations produce data rather than nothing but mere computational results which may or may not reflect the real thing.
The fundamental principle that has been lost in all this intellectual noise is that a model is not and can never be the thing modeled. They each represent their own reality. It may well be intended that they reflect each other but the challenge is knowing how reliable the reflection is.
84
Yes there is much confusion in the theoretical physics world. One main reason of course is it’s theoretical not actual!! More to the point there is so much debate, inconsistencies and disagreements in that field it’s not funny. Some even argue whether reality really exists. How absurd they even waste time debating it. I used to be very fascinated by that field of science, I even studied it a bit while I was at Uni and followed the discussions for many years later – until I realised the theories keep changing and finally figured out we know so little let alone understand any of it. Still it interests me to follow it at times but with much more wisdom now – and always with a grain of salt. One that kept me re-thinking a lot over the past year has been the discussion around Quantum Erasure. I’m almost convinced they are fooling themselves. There is no quantum erasure and it can be explained reasonably well simply by treating light as a wave packet – never a particle. In the two slit experiment for example, it’s more plausible to say even when one photon is fired it actually passes through both slits to create the interference pattern with itself. It’s certainly more reasonable than what some suggest like the ridiculous notion a photon only passes through one slit at a time but we never know which one unless we use fancy “which path” experiments and backward causality nonsense. Their ignorance is exposed when you realise if it only went through one slit at a time there would be no interference pattern in the first place. It amazes me how so many pseudo scientists still call a photon a particle even though they admit it’s not a particle in the strict sense of having mass. Try explaining to a real physicist how a particle with no mass is a better explanation than a wave packet, and see how far you go. Of course we don’t know and understand a lot so it’s better to use equations to describe such things even though such equations are just approximations. At least in mathematics there is much less room for armchair waving and silly ideas – well to most anyway. I can’t stand those mathematicians who believe there is no such thing as absolute true logic. Fortunately they are in the minority.
75
Surely Absolute True Logic does exist in the world of Mathematics! Maybe not in the real world.
10
Oh yes it does.
A thing cannot both be and not be the same thing in the same way at the same time and still exist. To exist is to be something in particular. You can only do something with or to a thing that exists. A thing that does not exist is without function or use. Again, our challenge is to know what a thing is and act accordingly.
To believe contrary to this is a futile attempt to rewrite reality in hopes that reality will follow your belief rather than being what it is. This would put you among the masses of the hopeless no matter how noble you think your cause.
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Or as Spock would say, “It is illogical, therefore futile to pursue any farther,” or something like that.
10
Paraphrasing: “It’s a waste to try to reason with the unreasonable”/
60
Couldn’t Weizsacker and Chadwick blame Schrodingers Cat for taking the wrong branch into a parallel universe ?
40
Communists have more red thumbs than rational minds
https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/the-best-reason-not-to-home-school-your-children/#comment-223140
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no, we are entering Aquarius, a mighty and glorious age. https://balance1010.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/so-that-the-clarity-of-the-will-of-god-can-come-through/
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Well, here is proof positive of the old adage …
Never enter into a battle of wits, with an unarmed person.
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Interesting adage, that. It’s quite amazing how often you encounter such people, always ready to joust with anyone but sans even the horse.
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“it’s just a flesh wound…’tis but a scratch”
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pointless. no doubt.. !!
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What is a broken pencil?
Pointless.
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Point taken. You are not making any sense.
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5:48 am – 6:10 am. 22 minutes.
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Find x in this equation: Square root of (x+15) + square root of x = 15.
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42 !!
.
.
.
.
.
.
oh, plus 7
.
.
On a side note, I once had a student answer a similar question by drawing a big arrow pointing to both x’s. !!
They had done exactly as requested. 😉
41
thanks, i missed that it must be plus.
10
How bout finding x in the equation square root of (x+123) – square root of x = 3. Come on, don’t be scared of a bunny rabbit!
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x=361
10
Resolving equation sqrt(x+123)−sqrt(x)=3, one step at a time —
sqrt(x+123)−sqrt(x)=3
¯
Square both sides gives –
sqrt(x+123)²−2x+123x+(x)²=9
x+123−2sqrt(x+123)(x)+x=9
−2sqrt(x²+123x)+2x+123=9
¯
Add -123 to both sides.
−2sqrt(x²+123x)+2x+123 −123=9+ −123
−2sqrt(x²+123x)+2x=−114
¯
Add -2x to both sides.
−2sqrt(x²+123x)+2x−2x=−114+−2x
−2sqrt(x²+123x)=−2x−114
¯
Divide both sides by -2.
−2sqrt(x²+123x)/−2=(−2x−114)/−2
sqrt(x²+123x)=x+57
¯
Solve Square Root.
sqrt(x²+123x)=x+57 (Square both sides)
x²+123x=(x+57)²
x²+123x=x²+114x+3249 (Subtract x² from both sides)
x²+123x−x=x²+114x+3249−x²
123x=114x+3249 (Subtract 114x from both sides)
123x−114x=114x+3249−114x
9x=3249 (Divide both sides by 9)
x=361
¯
Check answers. (Plug them in to make sure they work.)
x=361(Works in original equation)
sqrt(x+123)−sqrt(x)=3, with x=361
sqrt(361+123)-sqrt(361)=3
sqrt(484)-sqrt(361)=3
22-19=3
Therefore answer is correct x=361.
¯
Hopefully this comes out readable and I’ve caught all the typos.
20
for those who hit that “find the value of x” wall at all speeds/angles and perplexities, we have your medicine ready, if you will take it calmly:
https://balance1010.wordpress.com/2017/05/03/when-you-take-one-step-forward-for-freedom-without-compromise-all-of-heaven-steps-forward-one-step-with-you/
00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyjcxXiqnRY
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James Delingpole makes his point about the Climate Change march. Watermelons on parade, most organizations funded by George Soros. So far we have BREXIT, Trump, Le Pen in the runoffs and to complete the transition, Malcolm Green Turnbull is heading for a showndown with Tony Abbott. One stands for nothing. The other earned the job.
You have to compare the removal of Kevin Rudd after his landslide victory, undermined and removed by deputy Gillard with Tony Abbott’s landslide Victory, undermined and removed by the ABC’s Malcolm Turnbull’s. Again a one seat victory. The parallels are amazing. In both cases the party outrageously overrode the explicit wishes of the electorate and in the second case it is not Peter Slipper but Tony Abbott’s vote which keeps Malcolm in the job.
To quote Tony Abbott, Climate Change is crap and socialism posing as environmentalism. Delingpole would wholeheartedly agree.
If Abbott removed the RET, he would storm home as electricity prices dropped to a third and the gas and coal power stations turned on again. People would be paid fairly for their gas and there would be no shortage, except in Victoria where the extraordinarily unpopular puppet premier Daniel Andrews cost Bill Shorten the Prime Ministership. He must be as popular with Bill as he is with the electorate.
It would be marvellous for Hazelwood to fire up again. There might even be time to rescue all those jobs and the flow on losses in electricity dependent businesses like Alcoa. Maybe. It is incomprehensible that the greatest job destruction in modern times is by the Labor party. They compensate by hiring even more into the public service. As Margaret Thatcher said, socialism is fine until you run out of other people’s money.
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Tdef…………they had better hurry up with the showdown, or Aus will be well and truely left behind as Trump dismantles the scam.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/04/29/epa-removes-climate-science-website-announces-changes-reflect-trump-administration/
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TdeF, I agree with you; Delingpole is a great commentator on climate change as well as politics in general. And he doesn’t pull puches either.
GeoffW
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reads one sign….. Hard to see how you can have one without the other….
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And if you make children, you have permanently increased the CO2 output of humanity. Shame. Shame. Shame.
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As the old song said, “You can’t have one without the other”!
Actually, that song was singing about Love and Marriage; you know, that quaint old idea that a man and woman undertook a long-term contract to stay together and, in most cases, produce a few offspring.
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Horse and carriage?? Ingrid and Cary in “Indiscreet”. Oh for the fun and innocence of those days.
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Remember Clifton Webb in “Cheaper by The Dozen”, Annie?
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No, I can’t say I do Greebo I’m afraid. I watch very few films/movies as I always find the sound too loud and indistinct. My preferences for entertainment tend to be classical music and boxed sets of stuff like The Good Life, Yes Minister/Prime Minister, To the Manor Born, All Creatures Great and Small (our current choice) and MASH, oh, and Dad’s Army….you get the picture?!
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Come to think of it, I did just about manage to watch Eddie the Eagle and The Lady in the Van on some recentish flights and re-watch The Man from Snowy River on an earlier flight! Mostly I found listening to something like The Sixteen on a flight to be very relaxing. My other half will listen to Abba for preference!
10
Annie:
I think I came find a movie for you. A local newsagent has a stand of DVDs of “Rare movies”. Mostly Hollywood stuff from the 50’s and 60’s but I look through it occasionally as something rare does turn up. Recently I passed up buying ‘Attack of the Giant Leeches’ because it wasn’t about politics but another caught my eye
‘ I married a Woman’.
A nice period piece indeed. I thought of buying a copy for Senator Penny Wong but I thought she wouldn’t apprciate it.
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Thanks for the laugh Graeme No.3 🙂
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Annie! A lady after my own heart. I have the full set of “Yes Prime/Minister” and, apart from convulsing each time I revisit it, I cannot but see the direct comparison with Lord Turnbull!
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Not just Turnbull either…quite a few seem to fit!
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Annie! A lady after my own heart. I have the full set of “Yes Prime/Minister” and, apart from convulsing each time I revisit it, I cannot but see the direct comparison with Lord Turnbull!
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Not sure how that happened, I’m sure I don’t stutter.
20
Remember when HSBC was involved in [alleged] carbon fraud and other less than honorable dealings? Here is a documentary that was released yesterday by an attorney/engineer and film producer that will be of interest to all who have been following the money. Well worth the time and it gets into some serious legal details not seen before.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2gK3s5j7PgA
[This deserves to be seen but to keep it strictly by the book I have inserted the word alleged where it should be. The video is long.] AZ
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Thank you for the assist and apologies. More where renewables are concerned is forthcoming. Will send draft to the boss for review when finished.
10
More success on the peer review front
“107 cancer papers retracted due to peer review fraud.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/04/what-would-we-d-73.html
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And
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/04/the-sound-of-se-577.html#comments
and link
““Because peer review doesn’t do this,” Heathers told Ars. The point of peer review has always been for fellow scientists to judge whether a paper is of reasonable quality; reviewers aren’t expected to perform an independent analysis of the data.” “
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Difficult to judge the validity of a paper when data and/or program code are withheld, pretty standard with climate change ‘research’ !
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Peer review isn’t part of the scientific method, it is a substitute for the journals keeping a panel of experts to judge article quality. Instead of paying people the periodicals leach off other authors good will. It’s a publishing proofreading process, nothing more. It means nothing, catches obvious errors only, glorified spell check.
20
Not even spellchecking – apparently that is too menial a task for a lot of reviewers. I can identify more and more instances where horrendous spelling and grammatical errors have passed unnoticed into published work. References to figures/tables don’t match, or no longer exist. Extra text is not removed so unrelated partial sentences are left in the body of the work… and the list goes on.
My employer has an in-house system for reviewing material to be presented to the rest of the world. this includes abstracts, journal articles, conference material, and the like. On occasions where I am indicated as a reviewer, I take the time to review the content, as well as the spelling and grammar, as the authors may not be native English speakers, and even if they are, everyone makes mistakes. Other common feedback include requests to annotate plots or diagrams, displaying units, and scales, defining acronyms in the text body and/or as a list at the end, etc… Personally, I like my work to be reviewed like this, because I often get helpful, and constructive feedback.
Through this process though, I have discovered that others certainly do not appreciate having their work commented upon in such a way. They are the experts, and their work is infallible, and if people cannot understand it, then it is because the readers are all very stupid, not because the author was not as clear as they could have been.
As one colleague said “I have a PhD, I don’t need anyone to review my work.”
30
In an earlier software engineering job, the company had a documentation Quality Assurance section. I had many an argument with the QA people over whether their change of grammar changed what I actually MEANT. But then, the QA guys were PAID to do their job…
00
Retraction Watch makes for some interesting (or depressing, depending on ones perspective) reading.
The drive to benchmark academician/scientist performance based on quantity of published material, rather than quality has broken the already flawed peer review process.
90
E.M. Smith has a good report on the corrupting influence of social praise on individual integrity.
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/hollande-not-the-country-loves-rinos-not-the-animals/
21
“The Definition Of Insanity”
“Climate skeptics tend to be like a broken record. Many think they can win the climate debate through “science.” The debate hasn’t been about science for a decade. Alarmists lost the debate ten years ago, and no longer have any interest in either debate or science.”
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/04/the-definition-of-insanity/#comments
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defend your faith , or don’t , is it up to you , or maybe not , challenge yourself
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The author is suggesting our side should use propaganda to counter warmist propaganda.
Its far better to use satire to save the masses from delusion and turn the world upside down.
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Why lower ourselves to fight in the same mire warmists seem to love wallowing in….?
As my wise grandmother used to say “its easy to stoop and pick up nothing”
QED.
20
The debate can be won through science, but most sceptics can’t do this because they are “Lukewarmers”. Therefore all they can achieve is a endless squabble about determining imaginary figures for “climate sensitivity” to increasing CO2 concentrations. When the debate is reduced to the pseudo-science of “how much warming”, the propagandists win.
Lukewarmer’s belief that the surface of our planet would be cooler without radiative gases is exactly the same as the AGW propagandist’s belief, and it is based on the same total lack of empirical evidence. AGW propagandists cheer when they hear a Lukewarmer mumble “well I accept CO2 is a “greenhouse” gas, but …”, because that right there is where the argument was lost.
Empirical experiment shows that 71% of the surface of our planet is an extreme SW selective surface not a near blackbody. Empirical experiment shows that the Stefan-Boltzmann equation cannot be used to determine how the sun heats the oceans. Empirical experiment shows that the 255K figure for “average surface temperature without radiative atmosphere” is out by 80K for 71% of this planets surface, yet both Lukewarmers and AGW Believers alike accept that figure without question.
Until sceptics accept that the net effect of our radiatively cooled atmosphere is surface cooling not warming (not even “warming, but less than we thought”), the AGW propagandists will continue to win.
1213
Konrad,
It’s not quite as simple as that, but in essence what you say is correct. Radiative gasses increase Nett cooling rates. But! Certain radiative gasses also can warm by impeding surface cooling by radiation, while they increase cooling at the top they can also impede throughput from the surface. Consider why frost doesn’t form on cloudy nights, because the radiative interactions of water, impedes outgoing surface radiation. Now given CO2 is non condensing in the lower atmosphere I think is has a far lower effect but one can’t disregard possible warming influences entirely. Insignificant yes, zero, no.
The problem really is the non real assumption in the climate models that if we impede radiation and increase the difference in temp between the surface and stratosphere that convection won’t increase to compensate for the lack of surface radiation cooling. Well that’s wrong, the warmer the surface gets relative to the stratosphere the more unstable the air column becomes.
20
“Certain radiative gasses also can warm by impeding surface cooling by radiation”
Yes, but this doesn’t work for liquid water free to evaporatively cool. –
http://imgur.com/chJur9z
That would be 71% of this planet’s surface.
Some other effect rather than LWIR from the atmosphere is keeping the surface of our planet above the temperature 240 w/m2 of sunlight could drive a near blackbody.
The very simple reason that the surface temperature of our planet is higher than theoretical blackbody temperature is that the surface of our planet is an extreme SW selective surface. The reason for the oceans being an extreme short-wave selective surface is not just that water has hemispherical SW absorptivity over 0.9 and LWIR emissivity of only 0.67. The main reason is that water is SW translucent, LWIR opaque, and can only cool from its upper surface. Here’s a simple experiment that demonstrates the critical importance of depth of absorption to energy accumulation –
http://imgur.com/a/ScRup
Each block has equal ability to absorb solar SW and cool by emitting LWIR. The only difference between the blocks is depth of SW absorption. Expose both to 1000 w/m2 of sunlight for 2 hours. Block A will average 20C hotter. Any attempt to solve this problem with the Stefan-Boltzmann equation will fail, because the S-B equation cannot accommodate depth of absorption or speed of conduction.
18
Here is a graphic of how each block responds to SW illumination –
http://imgur.com/a/1LM3p
Here is a simple FEA run showing the blocks heating –
http://imgur.com/a/HZcqS
With the oceans of course there is the added complexity of convection, conduction and evaporation, which I cover in other experiments. But the bottom line is this: our oceans would hit an average of 335K were it not for conductive and evaporative cooling by our radiatively cooled atmosphere. They currently average only 288K. The net effect of the atmosphere is surface cooling not warming, so there is no radiative GHE for CO2 to add to.
110
alleged skeptic, alleged “lost the debate”, alleged everything they are trying to sell the public http://www.wnd.com/2017/04/climate-experts-global-warming-doubts-are-real-science/
10
According to AEMO, last year’s Victorian average wholesale electricity price was $46/MWhr. This year the monthly averages have been $62, $86, $91, $108/MWhr. That’s before you add into the retail price $82/MWhr for all wind/solar/hydro generation.
So what changed to drive up prices other than the closure of Hazelwood due to federal and state government policies favouring intermittent sources?
Still waiting for Dr Alan Finkel’s report into reliable and affordable electricity, and then we have the Dept of Environment’s review into the effectiveness of government climate change policies (public submissions close on May 5).
When can we have some analysis on how these policies damage Australia’s economy yet do nothing to change the climate?
140
You could add in the $85 MwHr cost of the RET certificates, which only apply to fossil fuel power. This is not to buy electricity of course.
As for damaging Australia’s economy, it is far bigger than that. Everyone depends on cheap, adequate, totally reliable electricity. It runs the sewage, the airports, the internet, the roads, the monitors, the hospitals, the refrigerators, the computers. Without electricity society will break down totally, which is the Green idea. The facetiously labelled Climate Change Policies are nothing of the sort. It is not about the climate and never was and besides, to talk about the effectiveness of Australia solo changing the world’s CO2 levels is past absurd.
I would love to know how anyone expects Australia to change CO2 levels. This is quite apart from the fact that fossil fuel CO2 levels are tiny, so the whole thing is a bad joke.
Could someone just once demonstrate that CO2 from coal is detectable in the air? Or are we still going with consensus science, the vibe? Its all climate scientology, a religion run by power hungry oppportunists.
211
LGC prices have dropped from $89 to $82. Maybe people do not buy as much power in summer and autumn?
This not the price of power. This is the price in cash of buying the right to buy coal or gas power. The money goes to needy people so they can buy private windmills and solar panels. You do not even get pieces of paper these days as it is handled at arms length by a goverment computer. The government has nothing to do with this ‘private’ transaction, except to force you to pay.
171
“I would love to know how anyone expects Australia to change CO2 levels. This is quite apart from the fact that fossil fuel CO2 levels are tiny, so the whole thing is a bad joke.”
Simple. We set the example. And the world will follow!
South Australia has already set the example for Australia! It’s working so well here! And it’s only going to get better and better!
Hmmmm, there must be a sarc key here somewhere . . . . . . .
150
An example? Yes, but only of massive self harm for no benefit. I doubt anyone would be encouraged to follow.
61
Which was your point.
51
Well, they all jumped on board after we led the way with Gillard’s Carbon Tax, didn’t they?? Oh, wait…
51
The OCO-2 satellite’s (the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 —Watchng the Earth Breathe) first map of CO2 in the atmosphere showed most of the CO2 over Australia was emitted from an upwelling in the Indian Ocean well to the West and a bit south of Perth.
Once Australia kills off its industries and electrifies (electrifries? 🙂 ) its entire vehicle fleet, and the atmospheric CO2 stays the same, where to then?
71
Outgassing is a terrible scourge and the problem needs to be rectified if Gaia is to live happily ever after.
20
Eat fewer beans, drink less fizzy stuff, then. Outgassing will be reduced!
00
Australia does change CO2 levels, every year we Nett remove over 12 billion tonnes of the stuff from the atmosphere. Indeed since 1990 our removal has increased by 2 gT per annum that increase being 4 times the measly 500 MT we Australian humans contribute.
I’m waiting for the cheque for my share of the 1.5 GT of China’s CO2 emissions I remove from the atmospheric
30
With climate science turned political,
Few dare to challenge or be critical.
The climate-change debate can not be won,
By bullets through the barrel of a gun.
The warmist fear of ‘carbon’ rises when,
Its parts per million reach 410.
More weather folk should wise up now because,
Man cannot drive the Warming and the Pause.
The Greens would like to regulate a way,
For no one else but them to have a say.
250
We live in times where speaking truth can be dangerous if it challenges the dominant politics.
80
Without someone speaking out, the moral vacuum of the Left becomes the law of the land, and will extinguish our lives and property rights….
Looka t Stalin as the model this lot would ahppily follow. the Left has many examples of evil taking root and causing massive loss of life for their faulty political-religious blend that causes nothing but heartache and misery.
DO we want that here?
50
‘Who guards the guardian?’ This is what I ask.
Keeping powers separate and making sure it works.
There’s a fundamental problem relying on the good and great,
for who, for sure, can tell the savant from the charlatan,
the great are just as prone as us to make mistakes.
Checks and balances maintained …keeping the media accountable,
‘Quis custodiet ipsos custodes,’ if not us?
60
Who shall guard the guards?
Who will watch the watchers?
Who can protect the kingdom?
From within.
Better in Latin, I admit. But me lattin aint up to it, yer know wot I mean?
40
Gramsci knew what he was doin’
infilltraiterin’ the institutions.(
20
In case anyone’s interested in archaeologists’ opinion on Younger Dryas Impact ‘confirmation’ study re; Göbekli Tepe:
https://tepetelegrams.wordpress.com/2017/04/21/archaeoastronomy-meteor-showers-mass-extinction-what-does-the-fox-say-and-what-the-crane-the-aurochs/
Jonova, January, 2012: http://joannenova.com.au/?s=Göbekli+Tepe
31
Found in the post-excavation spoil at Vogelherd Cave, this beautifully carved ivory mammoth survived the #IceAge. It is 35,000 years old.
35,000-Year-Old Mammoth Sculpture Found in Germany
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/ice-age-art-35-000-year-old-mammoth-sculpture-found-in-germany-a-489776.html
Photo: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Woodward_/status/853323503763947523
81
Amazing and beautiful little carving.
50
Just for the record my “fake carving” quip from last week was a play on “fake news”, the idea it actually is fake was pure
flakefluke.30
A guest essay by Eric Worrall (WUWT) discusses lukewarmer Bret Stephens’s first column in the NYT.
‘New York Times has triggered intolerant deep greens across the USA, by hiring a columnist who is not completely certain we face inevitable eco-doom.’
60
Thanks to Climategate emails that surfaced in Nov 2009, we now know that “consensus science“ is the bars on the mental prison of humanity:
https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/the-free-and-independent-individual/#comment-222807
60
NAS control over annual review of budgets and programs of federal research agencies (DOE, EPA, NASA, NSF, OSHA, etc) for Congress transformed educational and research institutions into propaganda outlets for globalism.
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/repeal-and-replace-universities
02
The question is how much of the 0.04% of CO2 in the air is from cars and planes and engines and coal? Popular myth is that the 50% increase from 0.028% to 0.41% is largely due to fossil fuels.
I am considering paying for the measurement of the % fossil fuel CO2 in the air in Australia. The CSIRO offer a service. So do the ANSTO (Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization).
Is there such information free anywhere? It would be nice for the goverment, say the $1Bn CSIRO to do this for nothing and publish it on their web site (as if). Then perhaps we would not need to blow up power stations. Perhaps the ‘problem solvers’ could actually solve a science problem? There are 350 of them trying to cope with Climate Change, which I suppose means Donald Trump.
162
To quote the American Chemical Society on CO2. “These increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and their marked rate of change are largely attributable to human activities since the Industrial Revolution (1800).”
This is the official scientific view, accepted by nearly everyone and promulgated at the highest levels of government. It is the mantra of all warmists, the one fact on which their world view is formed. It is not true.
What I would like to do is demonstrate this simple science without writing papers. Perhaps a web site showing the % of CO2 which is man made. That %, credibly measured, made public and visible would destroy the whole business of Climate Change.
122
TdeF
You might get some insights from this link: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/5665/2016/ ?
20
Full paper: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/5665/2016/acp-16-5665-2016.pdf
30
Thanks. Very frustrating.
“precise measurements of 14C in CO2 provide a largely unbiased tracer for recently added fossilfuel-derived
CO2 in the atmosphere”
They have the data to answer the $50Tn question, how much fossil fuel derived CO2 is in the atmosphere?
All they care about is getting an accurate answer to the question of how much fossil fuel CO2 is emitted. We know that within 10% as they say and they are confirming it by local dilution with C14 free fossil fuel CO2. As fossil fuel CO2 goes up, C14O2 goes down as a proportion of total CO2.
On the positive side, it means measurements of C14O2 have been made across the continental US. What we need are measurements in Hawaii or Alaska somewhere far from where the fossil fuel CO2 is actually released, not next to a chimney or an airport.
60
Don’t give up TdeF. The following link provides further insights into measurement (even if written for High School seniors): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/outreach/isotopes/c13tellsus.html . Click the ‘next’ buttons to get to 14C measurement.
Atmospheric CO2, its sources and isotopic composition is the clue to understanding worldwide fluxes of this molecule. Japan’s GOSAT and NASA’s OCO-2 satellites have been monitoring the atmospheric CO2 column for quite a while now, although published data seems slow to appear.
I certainly believe that the approach and analyses provided by Detmers et al. 2015 (http://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/327830 ) are the best way for Australia to monitor its net sources and sinks. The various visualisations (produced by NASA’s JPL) of changes in CO2 concentration and its distribution in the world’s atmosphere throughout a yearly cycle are also illuminating. See: http://www.blozonehole.com/blozone-hole-theory/blozone-hole-theory/carbon-cycle-using-nasa-oco-2-satellite-images . And such visualisations definitely put Australia in a much more favourable light than our Government and green zealots would have the general populace believe. Check out the colour scaling for Australia relative to other nations.
We have committed around $2.4 billion to funding Direct Action. For about a quarter of this cost we could have put up our own CO2 monitoring satellite and unequivocally demonstrated to the world that this nation has already attained the ‘Paris holy grail’ (zero net CO2 emissions into the world’s atmosphere). Perhaps Malcolm Turnbull can ask his good friend Donald Trump to provide us with the far more intensely sampled OCO-2 data set, when they have their ‘face to face’ next week?. CSIRO’s climate gurus can then analyse this in the Detmers et al. manner for everyone’s edification.
70
Thanks again. Radio carbon dating is about C14, not C13. This is a diversion from the absolute truth given by C14. About 1% of carbon is C13, 99% C12 but C14 is one in a million, has a half life of 5400 years and is made in the upper atmosphere by cosmic rays. So we have a perfect measure of fossil fuels. They have no C14. It is fossil fuels which is the thing we are trying to measure.
I also believe Dr Suess’s discovery was that the amount of industrial CO2 in the air was less than 2%. This was the Suess effect. It has since been expanded to include C13 based on relative take up of the very slightly heavier but chemically identical C13O2 molecule. This becomes contentious.
In 1965 aerial C14 doubled and C14 cannot vanish, but it has. The level is now nearly back to the long term level over the last 20,000 years. I would suggest fossil fuel CO2 is less than 5%. Still schoolboy stuff.
Consider that the 50% increase was due to ‘man made’ CO2 with no C14, the amount of C14 should be 2/3 of what it is. It looks like being with 2% of what it was before the industrial revolution. So there is virtually no fossil fuel CO2 in the air.
When people talk about Climate Change, they mean Global Warming.
When they talk about Global Warming they mean Man Made Global Warming.
When they talk about Man Made Global Warming, they mean man made CO2.
So people against ‘Climate Change’ are against the increase of CO2, none of which is man made.
I just want someone else to confirm with authority what to me seems so simple. There is almost no made made
CO2 in the air, well under 5%.
60
I appreciate the help and will study the document. My comments were that I feel the Suess effect has been hijacked and rewritten by others to push their views on relative bisophere uptake of C13. Dr. Suess was one of the pioneers of radio carbon dating in the 1950s and C13 was not involved. Now Wikipedia and other articles claim C13 as the Suess effect, opening it to debate and controversy when it is extremely clear that there is no fossil fuel CO2 in the air. Now or then.
30
It saddens me that an organization that I once belonged to could be so wrong. The term “greenhouse gas” is unfortunate because the atmosphere does not behave like a greenhouse. Over long periods of time there is a very poor correlation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with temperature. That the so called greenhouse gases such as water vapor and CO2 can cool as well as warm is apparently lost on the warmistas. It’s the water dammit and CO2 doesn’t contribute to any warming.
http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/20/50-inverted-hockey-sticks-scientists-find-earth-cools-as-co2-rises/#sthash.guz5fwZi.dpbs
71
Plus a Greenhouse with no walls, no roof, open to space, turbulent, over masses of water filled with 50x as much CO2 as the atmosphere itself. It is a water planet and the water is 340x as massive as the air above (3.4km deep, one atmosphere per 10 metres). Water, ice, snow, Antarctica, storms, monsoons, all our weather is about water, not CO2. Even for infrared bands, water is massively wider as an IR absorbing molecule. So what Greenhouse? The weather is entirely determined by the sun and the water. Anything else is opportunistic fantasy.
111
I’ve seen figures from 3% to 6% of 400ppm. I believe that we should be talking about only this part – 12-24 ppm, when we point out how ridiculously small is the possible AGW effect.
40
Greenland ice surface mass balance way above average for seven months.
http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
110
Westpac made a profound announcement last week that they would not fund Adani.
No Australian bank has ever funded a major resource project. The funding has been left to financial organisations from UK, USA, China and Korea.
Westpac has lost me as a customer (38 years) and as a shareholder (28 years).
The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
200
You might have noted certain politicians commenting that coal fired power stations closing operations are based on “commercial decisions”?
But they do not explain that the decision by management and shareholders is based on government interference in the electricity market, subsidies for so called renewable energy, wind and solar farms for example, providing a source of profit for those businesses and penalties for fossil fuel consuming power supply businesses that effectively make them unprofitable despite being the most efficient and reliable.
Socialism is about picking winners and losers rather than allowing the market to decide, consumers decide what they prefer as in green electricity at a much higher price.
140
A few days ago an annual report for a wind turbine farm business in Victoria was posted here which contained a message from the chairman that shareholders would not receive a dividend for the past year due to unforeseen repairs and maintenance, AND because wind availability was below expectations so the equipment was not operating for as many hours as the budget predicted.
What a farce.
190
Like the barbers cat….
10
When I read about Westpac, it reminded me of stories from (maybe) 1-2 years ago, where lots of “financial institutions” were supposedly refusing to fund such developments, but in reality, they were not being considered.
As long as the same propaganda tricks keep working, why bother changing tactics? With collective memories now approaching goldfish levels, and news cycles continuing to spin faster and faster (in a few senses of the word ‘spin’), then what was old, is new again!
110
True, it was a belated PR exercise by Westpac which only exposes their weakness, the China Infrastructure Bank (AIIB) is the big new kid on the block who happens to play hard ball.
50
I think westpac have badly miscalculated….they will be shown to be less than wise in the long term, and will amongst other things shoot their shareholders in the foot…
10
The Thermo-Gravitational Theory and Radiosonde Observations
A possible alternative Theory to the Green House Gas Effect Theory is the Thermo- Gravitational Theory.
Thermo gravitation supposes that the equivalent black body radiation temperature of the Earth is about -18C. The enhanced average surface temperature is then due to gravitational compression of the air in the troposphere. This sets up a temperature gradient which we recognise as the Environmental Lapse Rate (EVR)
DR R G Brown (Duke University) has challenged the Thermo-Gravitational Theory and maintains that the stable state in the atmosphere is iso-thermal.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/24/refutation-of-stable-thermal-equilibrium-lapse-rates/
The BOM publishes a lot of data from weather balloons (radiosondes). The balloon flights are taken at a lot of locations which cover about 1/4 of the southern hemisphere and extend from the tropics to the coast of Antarctica.
Previously I looked at the tropical data and then inland sites in central Australia, mainly Giles because there is a range of atmospheric moisture.
More recently my attention has been on the Antarctic sites (Mawson, Casey and Davis). The observations are becoming more interesting as the antarctic winter sets in.
It seems to me that Brown is correct. As the surface heating diminishes the EVR reduces and the tropopause gets lower and lower. The temperature at the tropopause gets higher.
In the stratosphere the temperature is iso-thermal. The stratosphere is known as a stable layer in the atmosphere, compared with the troposphere, where a lot of mixing occurs. The antactic balloons show a tropopause at about 8km. The balloons go up to 15km so there a lot of stratosphere to see. The stratosphere temperature trace is almost ruler straight.
It will be interesting to see if the trend continues as the months go by and I get to see the whole winter cycle.
80
The problem here is that no part of the surface or atmosphere of our planet is comparable to a theoretical blackbody. The question for Earth is not “what is raising average surface temperatures from 255K (-18C)?” but rather “what is lowering average surface temperatures from 312K (+39C)?”
However, unlike Earth, Venus does have a “Thermo gravitation” GHE. Just like Earth the atmosphere of Venus contains radiative gases. These allow upper atmospheric cooling by LWIR emission to space. Just like Earth, this causes “radiative subsidence”, crucial for strong vertical atmospheric circulation.
Where Venus differs from Earth is that most solar radiation is absorbed well above the surface. However the vertical convective circulation driven by solar energy absorption below the altitude of LWIR emission still extends to the surface. Gases initially solar heated well above the surface experience adiabatic compression (up to 90 bar) and heating as they descend to the surface. This is why the surface temperature of Venus is so much higher than Earth, even thought Venus actually absorbs less sunlight.
513
Konrad
pease consider this for your wonderful complete Trashing of anything I may write!
at 9:34 pm
“For Human emission percentages, I’ve seen figures of 3% and 6% of 400ppm suggested.”
Flora eat gaseous CO2 and CH4 to produce all manner of rigid hydrocarbons (trees)! Fauna eat hydrocarbons produce CO2 and CH4 plus wonderful furry critters!
Clever beyond belief; hairless humans, without tails, eat both flora and fauna and produce rigid ships from trees. They also invent spoken language that has elite pronunciation “Ahs wi pay”, rather than the needed for tail-less critters ‘Asswipe’. ‘Oh woha are we’; replaces ‘What a wonderful planet’!…
Oliver K. Manuel says: 28 April 2017 at 8:29 pm
“Thanks to Climategate emails that surfaced in Nov 2009, we now know, beyond doubt, that quantum mechanics is the tap-root of “manufactured reality,” i.e., “altered awareness.””
The weird part of QM is that it is all theoretical. Nothing is tested for being physical. The theory calculates the “probability of a quantum event” . The theory fails to insist that all probabilities need be accounted to 100%, including the probability of ‘no event’. This makes the theory ‘so far
nonsense’!
omanuel says: 27 April 2017 at 4:21 pm Different thread
“@Will Janoschka ”
@Oliver,
Quantum weirdness considering acceleration E²=p²c²+m²c²c²….E=root(p²c²+m²c²c²)! .. Where p is the momentum of the object.
Or your E = mc² can be E/c = mc, or zero = mc-E/c =. E/c -mc = zero! Also E²/c²=p²+m²c²! If Lorentz invariance\covariance is that t = -1/t, than t² = -1! That makes time imaginary, but chirality\parity is but an opposing POV! Time describes the past. Frequency describes the future. Scam describes right-now, right-cheer!
Some quantum ‘stuff’ is interesting, most is nonsense! Nothing quantum can replace painful learning experience/practice!! I believe I will have another beer!!
All the best! -will-
E.M. Smith says:
“As to questions about when a junction exists, well, that’s when you dope the material, even for Si.”
Not for II-IV Me:Cd:Te 0.1 ev detectors. There is no PN junction The devices work the same if you reverse the bias. When cooled below 70 Kelvin 0.1ev EMR radiation has a sufficient ‘work function’ to generate a minority carrier (hole) that drifts (mobility) toward the negative bias. That minority carrier has a statistical lifetime of about 0.1 micro-seconds.. All during that lifetime majority carriers (electrons) rush to the positive bias with 10,000 the mobility (photo-conductive gain) that makes the need for cooled amplifiers disappear. You still have generation-recombination (GR) noise, but at the kTb level (power) of 70 Kelvin.
“Per something being the consistency of a banana, well, mercury is a liquid yet we use it. That just is an engineering problem. The real question is about QM vs wave functions, IMHO ”
Indeed! Ruth, with experience sets the material on dry ice for ball bonding. Doris, master at attaching; mostly sits in our lab knitting booties for grandkids!. Doris can replace failed ball bonds at room temperature! There is only one Doris, that can demonstrate making monkey shit, stick to the wall!
“I’m not sure what more there is to be said, but Will wants more discussion, so anyone with more to say, here’s the spot. From my POV, the notion of black body radiation being sorted into hotter and colder photons and then using the hotter ones to make electricity seems plausible. Plants pump energy from photons “uphill” as does all of life create order from chaos.”
No not ever! Thermal EMR flux, at every frequency is always spontaneous, unlike broadcasts from CCN, or CO2 lasers!!.
“All it takes is the ability to degrade some energy to lower states to compensate. Since blackbody radiation already sorts photons into a spectrum, differential harvesting of the higher energy ones leaves the degraded ones; so effectively some energy goes up hill pumped by some that went downhill. ”
Pure Quantum BS and SCAM! Please note the Planck function of thermal radiance vs frequency\temperature. For thermal EMR flux at each frequency; all that is possibly emitted by the higher temperature then absorbed by the lower temperature surface, is the “difference” in ‘radiance’ at that frequency (vertical distance between the two temperature curves at all frequencies. That low level power can be automagically converted to any other power, for that surface. For the “same” temperature surfaces there can be no thermal EMR flux in either direction!
All the best! -will-
Simon Derricutt says: 29 April 2017 at 10:43 pm
“Within its limits, of course Maxwell’s equations work. The problem is that they don’t predict those quantum weirdnesses, and the things I’m dealing with need those quantum properties to work at all. Solar panels wouldn’t work according to Maxwell, yet they do. Since solar panels do work, then changing the parameters a bit whilst retaining the principles of operation will also work.!’
You are using Poynting’s 3D vector arithmetic, rather than Maxwell’s 4D quaternion matrix arithmetic, discovered by Hamilton. These 22 equations may be 3D laws that clearly describe ‘time’ as ‘imaginary’, (orthogonal to the other 3Ds). Maxwell’s equations clearly describe quantum weirdness once you discover that time is ‘imaginary’! Time is never affected by some other dimensional velocity. This took me 15 years of measuring after the demanded college brainwashing, of Maxwell’s equations! Simple 2D multiplication remains asinine! Quaternion algebra should be taught to innocent children way way before division\normalization!
At the college level Octonions can be introduced for higher dimensional space-time, as a mere extension to what has been learned! BTW computer 8 x 8 matrix! multiplication can be as fast as 4 x 4 multiplication and way way faster than conversion from Cartesian coordinates to Polar coordinates, with gimbal lock. All 6D missile trajectory solution use Quaternions, as local space-time does not need the extra dimensionality of Octonions. A wee bit of understanding possible GOD, likely will require 64 x 64 multiplication! Such is required for any glimmer of All powerful or all knowledgeable. Perhaps the whales and roaches have already learned this!!
Simon Derricutt says: 29 April 2017 at 10:43 pm
Will – Geiger counters measure mainly gammas, since alphas are stopped very easily. A GM tube with a very thin skin is used for beta radiation, but a simple GM counter doesn’t have that. Only high-energy betas will normally get counted – check the spec for any particular counter to find out the sensitivity.
So we can never know what is producing such “measurement” within this this time epoch (interval). Why not accept the unknown: rather than inventing some fantasy, never rising to the level of conjecture. The phrase “I do not know is always correct for Earthlings”. Why oh why do you demand fantasy as physical?
“For emission of an electron when a photon hits a photoemissive surface, it does not depend on the intensity of the wave or the power contained in the flux.”
Indeed! such mass ejection requires some four space power density. Always increasing with higher frequency. But only if such flux can possibly be emitted. Such so far has never been demonstrated in a direction of higher ‘radiance’ at that frequency!!
” When that photon hits, it has a certain probability of ejecting an electron only if it has enough energy, if the frequency is high enough (and of course if it is not reflected). If the frequency isn’t high enough it just won’t happen. If absorbed, a photon under that threshold becomes heat energy in the body. All the way down the line, though, we’re dealing with probabilities but the result for each transaction must be one of them.”
Indeed! Can you please demonstrate any power (your photon) being ever emitted in a direction of higher radiance at that frequency? Any, any, even once!
“It seems what you mean by “brightness temperature” is the temperature of a black body that would emit the same amount of energy.”
Yes power never energy! As energy is never radiated as EMR only as a power flux. But only within a very limited bandwidth, never at the peak radiance of any BB temperature!
” As such, a 1kW 1kHz transmitter would be brighter than a 100W visible laser that could raise local temperatures very much higher.”
The word brightness has been scientifically deprecated over the confusion between star visible brightness and star magnitude which is the star brightness integrated over the whole solid angle of that star as observed from way over yonder. In retaliation engineering created ‘brightness temperature’ with a extremely precise definition.
Most still think of brightness as the integral of actual brightness over some poorly defined solid angle as described by astronomers. Oh woha, are we, with such nonsense!
“Maybe the brightness temperature isn’t quite so useful. If I’m misreading your definition of the term, then please write a correction.”
You seem to confuse the deprecated visible ‘brightness’ with the exactly defined defied “brightness temperature” as is used for every measurement of longer narrow band wavelength interval as ‘ radiance’ (field strength), never some fantasy of flux!
“Interesting point there is that for photovoltaic use it’s only the wavelength that matters. You can’t use a 1N914 diode for IR because the forward voltage will always be too high – that’s unavoidable. It also won’t handle the frequency.”
An opaque 1N914 diode forward biased PN junction voltage, at very low current is an excellent measure of junction temperature. Any absorbency of 2 eV (visible) radiation truly defeats all such measurement
“Because of the probabilities, the important thing in the doctoral thesis is the ratio between the irradiance per m² and the power out per m². That is pretty good. Other people have simply used natural radiation to produce power out, but as I noted there’s only around 100µW/cm² available so you need a big area to get any reasonable amount of power out. This is not worthwhile as a way of getting power from the environment, but the power is in fact measurable when you don’t use a laser to boost the input power.”
Again you confuse EM irradiance (W/m²), potential, for power transfer with actual flux(W/m²)The measurable power transfer. The two are not the same, or even related!
“Within its limits, of course Maxwell’s equations work. The problem is that they don’t predict those quantum weirdnesses, and the things I’m dealing with need those quantum properties to work at all. Solar panels wouldn’t work according to Maxwell, yet they do. Since solar panels do work, then changing the parameters a bit whilst retaining the principles of operation will also work.”
Never ever. Maxwell’s equations clearly explain why solar panels do work, without any quantum nonsense.
114
Nope. Sorry Will. You beat me long ago.
Your experiments were better than mine (you had military funding). You knew LWIR emissivity for water fell off a cliff after 55 degrees from zenith, decades before I ever came to this problem.
I used a cryo cooled Hohlraun.
http://imgur.com/a/6vhcq
But that’s “old school”
Now folks have got the infinitely tunable quantum LWIR cascade laser. They’ve also got matching detectors. Kirchhoff”s law means reflectivity is the corollary of absorptivity.
You beat me. But today, technology beats you. Only it doesn’t. 0.67 hemispherical LWIR emissivity for liquid water is still right.
Damn you! Damn you to hell!!
How on earth did you get it right in 1970? Reveal your secrets!!!
11
Konrad April 30, 2017 at 1:27 pm ·
“Thermo gravitation supposes that the equivalent black body radiation temperature of the Earth is about -18C.”
Not at all! the atmospheric temperature of any solar system body atmosphere always has, if the surface pressure is above 20kPa some increasing temperature with increasing pressure\density. Such is never some green house effect! but only the careful examination of the ideal gas law! with two independent variable coefficients, temperature and sensible heat, never ever defined with scientific exactness. that means the gas law is but a useful expression if you discard any expression of exactness if error bars are not carefully included in every attempted ‘measurement’! your academic BS is truly an academic deliberate SCAM.
“The probincluded in anylem here is that no part of the surface or atmosphere of our planet is comparable to a theoretical blackbody. The question for Earth is not “what is raising average surface temperatures from 255K (-18C)?” but rather “what is lowering average surface temperatures from 312K (+39C)?””
Indeed!another clear example of deliberate scientific FRAUD!! for financial or political gain
However, unlike Earth, Venus does have a “Thermo gravitation” GHE. Just like
213
Go back to the thermo-kinetic theory of “temperature”. The observed “temperature” relates to the average energy imparted by molecular collision. At constant pressure (and thus density), the velocity translates (punavoidable) into an observable “temperature”.
It is, in essence, nothing more than “pressure”, characterised by its ability to convert (some of) the collision energy into thermal spectrum. Gas temperature and pressure are inherently “interchangeable”. (vis e.g. Combined Gas Law).
It follows that the greater the number of collisions per unit time, even with gas molecules of the same velocity, the greater is the observed temperature. i.e. the individual molecules are not more energetic (faster) but the temperature is observed to rise as a consequence of increased density; typically brought about by gravity and the weight of the column of gas above the molecules under observation.
60
Bernd,
I am aware of the molecular-kinetic theory of temperature in fluids. The point I was making to Peter is that searching for any type of net atmospheric “greenhouse effect” for Earth, be it radiative or pressure related, is a dead end. Given 1bar surface pressure, the net effect of our radiatively cooled atmosphere is surface cooling, not warming.
811
Spot on Konrad. Never yet found any evidence of which range of photons from radiative gases in the atmosphere warm the surface. Best I can find is a slight delay in cooling, less than 8%, no warming what so ever.
810
The NET effect of all atmospheric energy transfer processes is surface cooling. These include conduction, convection, evaporation, release of latent heat of evaporation during condensation and absorption and emission of radiation.
However LWIR radiation from gases in the atmosphere can cause the surface to cool at a slower rate. But this only occurs over land on still nights with high humidity or cloud cover, and only after convection away from the surface has stopped. But on windy nights this has no effect, nor during the day when buoyant convection is occurring. And over the oceans atmospheric LWIR has no effect on surface cooling rates either night or day.
The real reason that the surface of our planet is warmer than a near blackbody receiving 240 w/m2 of sunlight, is simply that the surface of our planet is not a near blackbody.
511
All agreed, but, air is warmed by conduction from the ground and warm air rises and cools. Really?
Well, a thermometer will indicate the air has cooled.
But where did the energy go and how? 99.9% of the atmosphere, that is nitrogen, oxygen and argon, are NON-RADIATIVE gases! Molecules on being wafted up the air column gain gravitational potential.
Isn’t science fascinating?
412
The wafting up will happen only if there is more dense air to fall. Warm air doesn’t rise; it’s displaced by colder air taking its place, allowing it to “float” on top. Thee buoyant uplift is one of the factors to consider when trying to calculate when and how much natural convection will occur. IIRC it starts when Gr·Pr exceeds about 1000 (IIRC); indicating the the gravitational and viscous forces are being trumped by buoyant uplift; and the convection becomes “easier” (Le Chatelier’s Principle) than conduction.
[A close look at most “insulation” used in garments, machinery, etc. demonstrates that air is recognized as a poor conductor of heat but that its convection must be curtailed to minimise heat transfer.]
Absent IR-radiating gases, there will be very little atmospheric cooling except in a shallow boundary layer promoted by diurnal cycling and allowed by the very low conductivity of dry air. There is a small but significant effect due to the planet’s rotation that induces horizontal and vertical convection, but without IR-radiating components in the atmosphere (i.e. “greenhouse gases”), there is no substantial mechanism for the atmosphere to cool other than (near) contact with a cooler “night-time” surface.
Surface temperatures over much of the planet would be similar to those above the arid, tropical deserts; well above 50°C during the day. Calculations of a dry Earth, subjected to dirunal insolation of equivalent magnitude and cycling put the near-surface temperature near 90°C; assuming reasonable values for albedo and thermal capacity for the surface.
Attributing the “greenhouse warming” to atmospheric gases is a consequence of a poor thermodynamic model which for one thing; ignores the thermal capacity of the surface and the majority of the atmosphere. When radiation theory is taught in freshman physics, it effectively models the Earth as a uniform, non-rotating, flat disc without gravity; or indeed any substance (thermal capacity, mass, etc) other than a nominal albedo; illuminated by a constant sun with just a fraction of the intensity known for the real sun. The fraction is to “model” the fact that the sun isn’t always shining (ahem) so simply dividing the intensity by 4 and allowing it to shine 24 hours a day instead of 6 makes up for it; one is to believe; for the purpose of learning radiation physics; because they don’t want to distract with the really hard maths. The surface temperature calculated by this method is then compared to the average air temperature (garnered from dodgy statistics) and the rather higher observed temperature is explained by the “greenhouse effect”. Just like “magic”. i.e. it explains away the discrepancy.
I understood that that was dodgy in 1977. That the model was only for instruction and had almost nothing to do with the real world.
811
Bingo!
Here is a simple CFD run for gas columns in a gravity field-
http://imgur.com/a/Y5k5Y
Column on the left, energy in at surface, energy out at altitude. Just like our radiatively cooled atmosphere.
Column on the right, energy in and out only at the surface, just like an atmosphere without radiative gases.
Now which atmosphere is about to superheat and boil into space?
There are no planets or moons in our solar system that have managed to retain an atmosphere without radiative gases to cool them.
38
Surface properties is precisely where the climastrologists got it wrong. Their misuse of the Stefan-Boltzmann equation treats the oceans as opaque to sunlight, illuminated by a ¼ power sun, infinitly conductive and non convecting.
Here are five simple rules derived from empirical experiment, that all must be applied to determine solar heating of the oceans –
http://imgur.com/a/19iSm
Climastrologists ignored. Every. Single. One.
39
To Bernd @17.2.1.1.1
Thanks Bernd a good outline.
KK
15
It is, in essence, nothing more than “pressure”, characterised by its ability to convert (some of) the collision energy into thermal spectrum. Gas temperature and pressure are inherently “interchangeable”. (vis e.g. Combined Gas Law). It follows that the greater the number of collisions per unit time, even with gas molecules of the same velocity, the greater is the observed temperature. i.e. the individual molecules are not more energetic (faster) but the temperature is observed to rise as a consequence of increased density; typically brought about by gravity and the weight of the column of gas above the molecules under observation.”
Indeed mostly correct! but your ‘
atmospheric weight’ is nonsense! With the compressible mass surrounding,but External to the bottle. gravitational force is expressed as pressure\density\temperature. Never acceleration. (weight).Surface pressure remains as Pi times the columnar mass, due to projective geometry. Your Climate Clowns have no idea as to atmospheric mass as local pressure spontaneously adjusts so all atmosphere remains at neutral buoyancy with no measurable ‘weight’ ever! Atmospheric displacement only displaces the volume of space, with no mass! Archimedes 271 BC. One very sharp ancient engineer! Read and learn the demonstrableness. Whew, did I actually express such a nonsense ‘wourd’!
711
Hi Will,
I think I asked this before, even if indirectly.
What pushes wind turbine blades around.
Is the material moving the blades weightless?
Sitting there immobile at 4 am the air at ground level is induced to move away from the rising sun a little later.
is this gas accelerated in beginning motion.
does it decelerate when in contact with the T blades?
KK
20
Sorry, correction,
Towards
10
KK,
Your questions involve aerodynamics.
What pushes wind turbine blades around? The wind pushes them around. The blade of a wind turbine is like a wing. Air flow over the blade creates a lift force which pushes the blade.
Is the material moving the blades weightless? Air has a mass of about 1.2kg/M^3 at sea level. Balloons (with less mass) can float in the air.
is this gas accelerated in beginning motion? Sorry, I don’t know.
does it decelerate when in contact with the T blades? Yes
20
Hi Peter,
The question was rhetorical in that Will has made some challenging comments about the behaviour of the atmosphere previously and especially about those who pontificate on aspect of air movement.
I was giving him a prod. 🙂
KK
30
“The question was rhetorical in that Will has made some challenging comments about the behaviour of the atmosphere previously and especially about those who pontificate on aspect of air movement.
I was giving him a prod. 🙂
OK prodded. Both Air and Atmosphere have mass thus acquire momentum when moving (mv). Air in a cylinder generates ‘weight’ (heavyness) when supported against the force of gravity! (Mbottle + Mair)g = total weight. that is how one determines both mass and surface volume if let out of the bottle. The atmosphere is not in a bottle, has no weight, and is completely supported by its own density ρ, pressure P, and temperature T as in the gas equation P/&roh;, = rT. The ratio between P and ρ is called κ(engineering) or γ (Chemistry) = Cp/Cv = 1.4 for dry air. The atmosphere normally exhibits self-buoyancy, but does expand with an increase in lapse absolute temperature. This increasing temperature with increasing P,ρ is know to every aeronautical engineer and would completely explain why Earth’s surface has a higher than effective BB temperature, not only some [snip] average but at every location all of the time. Guess who the arrogant academics failed to check with?
All the best!-will-
11
Ideal gas laws describe an adiabatic parcel of air.
The balloon data shows that our atmosphere is not like that. Most likely the adiabatic assumption is wrong. Heat is being lost. I expect that means Konrad is also correct.
511
7 red thumbs! That is impressive for an obscure point of atmospheric science.
Konrad probably deserves most of the credit
80
Possibly, although I think the problem is “Lukewarmers” who are completely illiterate on matters of thermodynamics, fluid dynamics and radiative physics.
255K for “average surface temperature without radiative atmosphere”? The question is not which moron claimed it, or even which morons believed it. The question is why so-called “sceptics” vilified those who challenged these empirically falsifiable claims.
Here’s the thing: this is science. Either adding radiative gases to our radiatively cooled atmosphere increases our atmosphere’s radiative cooling ability or it reduces it. Black or white. Right or wrong.
Sure I irritate “Lukewarmers”. But they have done far more than alarmists to prolong this inane hoax. They deserve what they are going to get. This isn’t about sides. This is about science.
[Approved with objectionable words because it deserves to be approved. Please do not misconstrue this as general permission to use those words. Thanks.] AZ
48
Not so wrong it can’t be used for meteorology. However yes, energy is being lost. Conduction at turbulent mixing at the sides of an air mass, but also LWIR emission, especially during the heat pulse of latent heat release during cloud formation.
In 2010 Makarieva et al tried to get a paper on diabatic processes driving horizontal winds. They finally got published 3 years later. While only a meteorology paper, the resistance from the climate cabal was fierce. Radiative cooling of air masses? Most radiative cooling coming from condensed water? Circulation being driven by radiative cooling? Silence! Silence!! they demanded.
What the climate cabal were terrified of was that discussion of the established science of “radiative subsidence” could re-enter the debate after they had worked so hard to bury it.
https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~dib2/climate/tropics.html
For the climate cabal, this simply wouldn’t do. If the role of radiative gases in driving vertical cirulation were discussed, people would realise that more radiative gases would just speed up the processes removing energy from the surface. This was heresy!
79
The Adiabatic parcel of Air.
Not a meteorologist myself but I have had to read a bit of it to understand the weather for gliding flight. The adiabatic air parcel works well for short term phenomena such as thermals and thunderstorms. The air movements under these circumstances are rapid and there is not much time for mixing and radiative heat loss.
However the dry adiabatic lapse rate (DALR) only exists during the period of intense solar heating and usually below 5000ft. As soon as the sun sets the DALR collapses and the thermals stop.
The Saturated adiabatic lapse rate (SALR) adequately explains thunderstorms which mostly occur in the late afternoon and evening.
But what happens during the large scale air movements due to high pressure and low pressure systems. Air is either falling or rising at about 100ft/hour. The balloon radiosondes show that the the overall lapse rate is about 7C/km (ie close the the SALR), regardless of whether the air is falling or raising. The balloon data is very consistent about this especially in the tropics and the mid latitudes.
Adiabatic processes and the gas laws do not explain that. Descending air does not get as hot as it is supposed to do to compression during descent (it should follow the DALR, according to theory). So the change of state of water vapour is invoked to explain the discrepancy.
So what would we expect if the air is very dry. I would say that the adiabatic theory requires that the lapse are should get closer to the DALR. That is where the balloon data from the Antarctic bases is so interesting. The air is dry, indeed very dry and it is getting dryer as the winter approaches. But does the lapse rate go up as expected. No it seems to be going the other way!
More to follow.
30
Peter,
please follow the link and attached pages.
https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~dib2/climate/tropics.html
This is pre AGW hoax meteorology. This is solid.
PS. The wolf is a VFR pilot. Constant speed prop and retract endorsement. I don’t put my groomed fur or fluffy tail into air masses I don’t understand.
20
Very Interesting Konrad,
Thank You.
Solid Meteorology for sure. However I don’t think it actually deals with the issue I am raising.
Is the atmosphere adiabatic?
Why is the Environmental lapse rate so different from the DALR?
Is the stable equilibrium of the atmosphere iso-thermal?
00
Actually I will read agin a few more times. There may be more there than I first realised.
11
Peter C May 2, 2017 at 10:25 pm
“Why is the Environmental lapse rate so different from the DALR?”
The environmental lapse (-6.4/per kilometer); is nowhere, but only used to calibrate barometric altimeters! The actual altitude agl or asl can be anything, but craft flying at different baros cannot fly into each other.
“Is the stable equilibrium of the atmosphere iso-thermal?”
Depends on your definition of equilibrium! Loschmidt claimed that the equilibrium temperature of an atmospheric gas column is subject to gravity. because of zero conductive flux. This is correct for some. Maxwell claimed that isothermal defines thermal equilibrium. This is correct for others. My own claim is that equilibrium is when both flux and ΔT are constant! Thermodynamic equilibrium! 🙂 Your mileage may vary!
10
“The Adiabatic parcel of Air.”
Nothing about this atmosphere is adiabatic. Adiabatic is compression\expansion without heat transfer. A Diesel engine a good example; 20:1 compression in so short a time interval that the highly compressed air has no time to transfer its heat to the surround after compression ignition of fuel then lotsa heat is added, so the thing can deliver power! The atmosphere is expanding\compressing but compressive force is but the constant force of gravity. 🙂
10
The two; Prof. Victor G. Gorshkov; Dr. Anastassia M. Makarieva Likely understand more about how this atmosphere work Than all in the AMS and its Global likenesses combined. 🙂
11
You’d think there are enough genuinely terrible, and despicable things going on in the world which could (or should) warrant protest marches, but apparently it’s much easier just to focus on the Trump family.
Just when you think the world has gone mad, something happens to prove that the current level of madness is but a point on an exponential curve.
130
I find at least 5 (possibly 6) dramatically false or hypocritical statements in the ABC article quote below. Roman numerals inserted for reference.
[i] Unreal. The climate has changed and always will change.
[ii] Hypocrisy. Plenty of shareholders and executives have profited from renew-bubble energy schemes which don’t deliver power reliably but rely on taxpayer subsidies. Solyndra. Solar City.
[iii] Unclear from this sound bite. Environmental protections are good but ongoing harm has to be demonstrable not just assumed, and there must be balance between supplying valued goods and preserving the environment.
[iv] Not clear what that has to do with any modern industrial process, let alone anything Trump would approve. The origin of asthma is described in this way by Holgate 2010:
If the concern is ash from coal fired power plants, well the scrubbers and filters were already required by the EPA to be installed in the 1960s to stop that type of pollution.
If the next statement (v) was an elaboration of this statement iv then statement iv is also not credible. Inhaling coal ash could very well give you asthma and bunch of other disorders, but the point of liquid ash ponds is they keep the ash from becoming inhalable dust. Ash ponds are covered over with dirt before they dry up, to prevent the ash becoming airborne, and in some cases are covered with tough artificial liner sheets to minimised passage of rain through the landfill into lower strata.
[v] Possibly true. Leaks of arsenic and selenium from ash ponds into groundwater may be unhealthy for water consumers depending on cumulative dose. There are so many different types of “cancer” that it would be surprising if none of them were exacerbated by increased intake of heavy metals. Stopping coal power would be fine if a reliable substitute was available, but the greens are blocking nuclear too. It would seem nuclear and coal have qualitatively similar issues with waste management even if they differ quantitatively in scale and toxicity. The coal waste problem is vastly greater in scale but the toxicities are much less, gram for gram. The solutions for coal ash should be similar to solutions for nuclear power. In evaluating coal ash dumps, even the USA EPA concluded: “composite-lined units effectively reduced risks from all pathways and constituents, below 1 in 100,000 excess cancer risk or an HQ of one.” So you don’t have to shut down coal, but you do have to treat coal ash landfills like the toxic waste dumps that they are, and sealing the waste effectively can be done, and has been done in many places, and even the EPA concludes that it stops the problem.
Bear in mind that the worst cancer risk found in the coal waste was a peak of 1 extra cancer per 10000 exposed people during a 10000 year simulation period. So it might mean death for 1 in 10,000 people for some year during the next 10,000 years. You take almost as much risk crossing the road, but the protestors were quite happy to do that on their way to the protest. What a noble sacrifice!
[vi] Unreal. Sure, that 90m of sea level rise at the onset of the Holocene was terrible wasn’t it, with all that accompanying global warming that makes our current scale of agricultural production possible. If you’re sick of sea level rise I’m afraid there is no end in sight for your lifetime, Reverend.
[vii] Vague. B…b..but revolutions are built on hope! /sarc
That’s all from one short quote from one article on one news web site.
When will the EPA do a study on the health effect on humans of total cumulative absorbed dose of environmental misinformation?
120
At 1:00 am this morning (30/04), our illustrious wind turbine conglomerate was generating less than 10MW.
That must be the worst EEEEVVVVAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!
120
Quick, get the government to increase subsidies to them before the shareholders decide to close them down.
90
29 Apr: ClimateDepot: Marc Morano: Skeptics Attend People’s Climate March With New Report & Billboards – Denied Media Credentials
Update: Exclusive Video: People’s Climate March hostile to skeptics – Attempts to take down signs, deny access…READ ALL
http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/04/29/skeptics-to-attend-peoples-climate-march-with-new-report-billboards-rejecting-premise-of-march/
28 Apr: AP: Review: Phuong Le: Coal terminal would boost global climate-warming gas
SEATTLE: A coal-export terminal proposed in Washington state would increase cancer risks for some residents, make rail accidents more likely and add millions of metric tons of climate-changing greenhouse gas globally every year, according to an environmental study released Friday.
Millennium Bulk Terminals-Longview wants to build the facility along the Columbia River near the city of Longview to handle up to 44 million tons of coal a year. Coal would arrive by train from Montana, Wyoming and other states to be stored and loaded on ships heading to energy-hungry markets in Asia…
In a statement, Millennium CEO Bill Chapman said, “We have carefully designed the project to protect air and water quality, fish and wildlife, groundwater and people in accordance with regulatory requirements.”
Agencies will use the review to decide more than 20 permits needed before the coal terminal can be built…
The project also would result in a net annual increase of nearly 2 million metric tons of greenhouse gases when the exported coal is burned in Asia. Regulators called on developers to offset that pollution by buying carbon credits or investing in renewable energy projects…
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_COAL_EXPORT_WASHINGTON?SITE=MYPSP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-04-28-20-22-23
20
check the clothing. #8 in the Photo Gallery is telling.
Denver Post writes of “thousands” at the march, but everywhere else I’ve noted they write “hundreds”, e.g:
Denver Channel: People’s Climate March: Snowy weather didn’t stop hundreds from protesting in Denver
29 Apr: Denver Post: PHOTOS: People’s Climate March on Denver
8 of 16: Young supporters hold signs while listening to speakers during the People’s Climate March on Denver Saturday, April 29, 2017 in the Civic Center…
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/04/29/photos-peoples-climate-march-on-denver/
29 Apr: Denver Post: Denver area receives up to a foot of snow ahead of chilly overnight temperatures
by Danika Worthington & Jesse Paul
A storm that dropped up to a foot of snow in the western Denver metro area through Saturday evening has mostly moved out of the state as forecasters warn that low temperatures are expected to stick around the Front Range well into Sunday…
Areas to the south and west of Denver saw the heaviest snowfall, with 10 inches in Littleton, 14 inches in Ken Caryl and 14 inches in Roxborough Park.
Genesee got 22 inches of snow while Tiny Town recorded 17 inches…
The Rocky Ford Growers Association said its farmers were out Saturday inspecting their melon fields for damage. “The real danger is the below-freezing temps last night and tonight that can kill the delicate seedlings that have popped up from the first planting,” the organization said in a news release Saturday.
The grower’s association says farmers will have to replant any fields that don’t make it through the cold snap to make sure Rocky Ford’s cantaloupe can make it to market in mid-July…
29 Apr: GWPF: Global Temperatures Plunge 0.5° Celsius In April
Global temperatures have dropped 0.5° Celsius in April according to U.S meteorologist Ryan Maue. In the Northern Hemisphere they plunged a massive 1°C . As the record 2015/16 El Nino levels off, the global warming hiatus is back with a vengeance.
http://www.thegwpf.com/global-temperatures-plunge-0-5-celsius-in-april/
40
Cantaloupes planted in May ready for market in mid-July? I’d like to get a seed of one of those.
Sure, they’re a long way north, but even with the longer day-lengths, a rockmelon in only twoandahalf months would be a very good thing to have.
20
Okay then, open up the image at this link (in a separate window, you know how, and when it opens, click the MW button at the top right of the chart in the middle of the page) and I’ll get to it, twice in fact. This is a Load Curve for power generation, and this is from just fossil fuels, and it’s even recent, last Thursday in fact. This load curve is a typical cooler Months load curve with the two distinct humps there, and while the Summer load curve looks different, those two peaks are still there, just hidden in the one large hump.
*****
Don’t you just love the way that the talking heads say that they are doing all they can to lower the costs of electricity.
During the week, the ABC played a short video with a talking head (as usual, not an electrical engineer, but an economist) telling us in all seriousness that Australia will be 100% renewable by 2050, and believe me people, that will NEVER happen, NEVER.
He then said that we need to send a price signal to people to stop using as much electricity, because, well, that’s what causing increased consumption, (WTF says I, when he said that) and places stress on the system. So, he went on to say that to send that price signal, we need to raise the cost of electricity during that mainly evening peak, and he actually used those exact two last words, and he said that by doing that, it would make people move away from using power at that time, to other times of the day, and ease the stress on the system at that time.
Okay then, why oh why is there that evening peak?
So, now go look at the chart at the link, and hey presto, he’s right, there is an evening peak.
This load curve, while for all of Oz East of the WA border, is indicative of all load curves, be it for a small town, a city, a State Capital, a region, a State, and a whole Country, and every single grid. It has been the same since the very first power plant began delivering power, and has looked like this since that day one?
So, again, why is that?
Look closely for when the evening peak begins to rise, not long after 3PM.
Hmm, all the children coming to their homes after school wouldn’t be a clue now would it.
Then it rises again around 5PM.
Say, that, umm, wouldn’t have anything to do with Mum and Dad and everyone else in the Country finishing work and arriving home. It’s cool honey, turn on the heater. It’s hot honey, turn on the airconditioner. I’ll get on with the chores, the clothes washing and drying, the vacuuming etc. You get a beer out of the fridge, fire up the computer, charge the phone, turn on some music or the Telly.
Then, of even greater reason that evening peak arrives. Well what do you know, everyone wants to fed the evening meal, hence the stove, the oven, the Nuker. All the lights come on.
So, what do you know, an evening peak. Hey, who would have thought?
So, now, back to the talking head at the top, and his wonderful, umm, price signal, and how we need people to move away from those hours of the evening peak. you know, wait till 2.30, 3.30, or 4.30 in the morning to get home from work and have that evening meal.
So, is this a blatant price grab to make people hostage to an increased cost for electricity exactly when EVERYONE uses it most, in their homes, at that specific time of day, you know when everyone has ALWAYS done that.
So let me see, he canvasses lowering electricity costs by, umm, raising them when consumption is at its highest.
How good is that, eh!
Oh, and you may wonder how I can be confident when I say at the top of this comment that there will NEVER be 100% renewables by 2050, or even on any date he cares to pick, any date at all.
Look again at that load curve.
Note how much power is being generated at 3AM, and this load curve is just for fossil fuels, and that is 16,000MW. That power is not generated and just dumped. It’s actually being consumed.
The real consumption is around 18,000MW, so add to that fossil fuels, the Hydro, the Wind, the other tiddlers and solar. (Hmm, wait a minute, there is no Solar power at 3AM)
18,000MW
While everyone is tucked up and sound asleep, and that’s more than 60% of every watt of power available in the Country, at 3AM, and (now) 89% of it supplied by fossil fuels, you know power plants that actually can deliver power on demand.
That’s why there will never be 100% renewables. They cannot deliver that power, not just for 3AM, but for 24 hours of EVERY day, FOREVER.
But hey, don’t believe me, go to the AEMO site at this link. See the lighter coloured line there, (and hmm, it also looks like a typical load curve) for actual consumption there, well move your mouse to the low point at left, around 3AM Saturday night. Add up the totals for 3AM for all five States, and surprise surprise, 18,500MW.
100% renewables. Nup! Sorry! Never happen.
Tony.
301
You just wait until the land of the giants is created, goliath like wind turbines with pylons as tall as the Sydney Centrepoint Tower building and rotor blades swinging even higher. Wind turbine farms like high-rise cities creating rural blight.
And electricity supply well exceeding the dwarf models of today.
40
Yes and imagine how fast gearboxes of that size would need to be replaced?
Massive loads and all sorts of mechanical headaches…now add in a really strong wind… the forces would be massive….
Imagine if a blade snaps off….you wouldnt want to be within 1 km…
30
Would that be like lowering the cost of family holidays, by sending an ummm… price signal at school holiday times?
30
Tony you forgot that we are supposed to be driving electric cars by then and they need charging when people come home after work. Batteries charging batteries? These greenies are so dumb.
30
***SURELY THE BEST QUOTE YET FROM A “CLIMATE MARCHER”!
29 Apr: LincolnJournalStar Nebraska: BAILEY SCHULZ: Lincoln climate march draws hundreds of protesters
Karla Cooper, a minister and adjunct professor at Doane University, said the evidence of climate change is evident today, and it’s up to the people of the world to accept that and make a change.
***“How ridiculous is it to realize that on April 29, in Nebraska, it’s cold,” she said. “It’s snowing in Denver. … Climate change is as real as the very breath we take.”…
http://journalstar.com/news/local/lincoln-climate-march-draws-hundreds-of-protesters/article_72f35e2f-42b7-50ea-891a-15bcd8b73ce8.html
29 Apr: Omaha World-Herald: Cold, rainy and breezy weekend expected in the Omaha area; snow to the north and west
By Jay Withrow
Got any outdoor plans for the weekend? Forget about ’em.
Forecasters called for rain, below-normal temperatures, breezy conditions and possibly a rain-snow mix for today through Monday in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa…
(KMTV meteorologist Ryan) McPike called for a chance of wet snowflakes mixed with rain late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
“That’s impressive for late April,” he said of the possible snow…
And the office in Hastings, Nebraska, issued a similar storm watch for a large swath of central Nebraska that could receive several inches of heavy, wet snow from this evening through late Sunday…
http://www.omaha.com/news/metro/forecast-cold-rainy-and-breezy-in-omaha-area-snow-to/article_aa33a282-2c01-11e7-99d7-2fd6a0ade7f7.html
60
Perhaps Bailey Schulz could get advice from Punksatawney Phil? He knows all about natural variation, something which seems to escape Climate Changers.
50
In April of 1973 I was in Boulder, Colorado. We were warned of a developing storm and told to Go! if we could. So I did, back to Iowa where I lived then. The link below tells what happened next.
Holy cow — snow in April.
http://www.iowalivingmagazines.com/2013/03/27/april-blizzard-of-73/
30
I was in High School in southern Iowa then! Our house was snowed in for a week by a 14′ drift across the road by our house. Luckily the power stayed on, but we had to make an emergency trip into town on a snowmobile for food. Biggest, nastiest snow storm I’ve been in.
00
Harvard pseudo scientist presents pseudoscience as real science
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AND CALLS REAL SCIENTISTS PSEUDO SCIENTISTS AT THE SAME TIME
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By AL Whitney © copyround 2017
Permission is granted for redistribution if linked to original and AntiCorruption Society is acknowledged.
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Rhodes’ propagandist Dr Atul Gawande
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To be a successful propagandist you have to combine enough truth to make people believe your lies. Dr. Atul Gawande did exactly that in 2016 in his commencement address to the graduating class at CALTECH. His propaganda piece also appeared in the June 2016 issue of the New Yorker titled The Mistrust of Science. While his credentials impressed the folks at CALTECH enough to get him an invitation to speak, they pale when you compare them to the credentials of Dr. John Ioannidis who thoroughly researched and proved that our collective mistrust in what is called ‘science’ today needs to increase, not decrease.
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Here are a few quotes from Dr. Gawande’s propaganda piece:
[Truth]
But you also hope to accept that nothing is ever completely settled, that all knowledge is just probable knowledge. A contradictory piece of evidence can always emerge.
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[Lies]
Many people continue to believe, for instance, despite massive evidence to the contrary, that childhood vaccines cause autism (they do not); that people are safer owning a gun (they are not); that genetically modified crops are harmful (on balance, they have been beneficial); that climate change is not happening (it is).
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[Truth]
The sociologist Gordon Gauchat studied U.S. survey data from 1974 to 2010 and found some deeply alarming trends. Despite increasing education levels, the public’s trust in the scientific community has been decreasing. Continue reading →
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https://anticorruptionsociety.com/author/anticorruptionsociety/
50
29 Apr: Washington Times: Valerie Richardson: Heavy snow forces postponement of People’s Climate March rally in Colorado
The Colorado Springs march, one of 12 slated to take place in Colorado, was canceled late Friday after heavy snow began falling across the Front Range, with more than a foot accumulating in some areas, as reported by Western Wire…
More than 100 marchers braved the cold at a rally Saturday at Civic Center Park in Denver, where the snow was so heavy that someone was able to build a snowman, as shown in photos posted (LINK) online.
The website Complete Colorado (LINK) ran a photo of a man on skis with the headline, “Heading to the Global Warming Rally Today.”…
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/29/peoples-climate-march-postponed-colorado-due-snow/
29 Apr: Accuweather: Kristina Pydynowski: Snow to sweep from Texas to Minnesota into the start of May
It will feel like the calendar has been turned back to winter instead of moving ahead to May as snow sweeps across the central United States into Monday.
“A very strong spring storm cutting northward through the Plains will dump a narrow swath of heavy snow on its western side,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda said.
The same storm is threatening lives and property from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley with severe weather and flooding.
After proving to be a boon for the ski resorts in the Rockies, the snow will sweep from the northwestern corner of Texas and neighboring northeastern New Mexico to Minnesota through Monday…
Snow can exceed a half a foot from northeastern New Mexico to western Kansas and central Nebraska.
Snow will also spread over western and northern Minnesota later on Sunday into Monday, whitening St. Cloud and Duluth…
The snow is falling on areas where normal highs range from the lower 60s in Minnesota to the lower 70s in the northwestern corner of Texas. The last time Watertown, South Dakota, measured snow in May was on May 9, 1979.
Highs in the 30s will accompany the snowstorm. The gusty wind will hold AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below actual temperatures, further making it feel like winter has returned.
The heavy, wet nature of the snow will make it difficult to shovel. Residents, especially those with heart issues, should use caution and take frequent breaks when shoveling.
“The cold and/or weight of the snow could damage flowers that residents may have already planted,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister said.
The first day of May could bring school delays or cancellations in the northern Plains.
Children and those young at heart will welcome the snow as one last opportunity to go sledding before summer arrives…
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-to-sweep-from-texas-to-minnesota-into-the-start-of-may/70001537
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google did a good job of hiding this story yesterday – didn’t see it until now:
28 Apr: WaPo: Court freezes Clean Power Plan lawsuit, signaling likely end to Obama’s signature climate policy
By Juliet Eilperin and Brady Dennis
A federal court on Friday granted the Trump administration’s request to suspend lawsuits against the Clean Power Plan rule, signaling the likely end of President Barack Obama’s signature climate policy…
“The D.C. Circuit has done the right thing,” David Rivkin, a constitutional lawyer who represented the 28 states that sued over the regulation, said in an interview. “It is indeed the death knell of the Clean Power Plan. In effect, the previous administration has only itself to blame. Many of the rules it has done have been plagued by fundamental constitutional infirmities.”
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), called the move “a win for Wyoming’s energy workers.”…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/28/court-freezes-clean-power-plan-lawsuit-signaling-likely-end-to-obamas-signature-climate-policy/
28 Apr: Washington Times: Ben Wolfgang: Court halts case on Clean Power Plan, paves way for dismantling of carbon emissions rule
In a major victory for the White House, the D.C. Court of Appeals on Friday suspended a case on the Obama-era Clean Power Plan, paving the way for the administration to dismantle the rule without interference from the courts…
Friday’s decision removes the possibility that a court could step in and declare the plan perfectly lawful even as the administration begins undoing it…
Now, without court interference, it looks as if the Clean Power Plan is destined for the ash heap.
“Today’s decision by the court is a positive step toward protecting West Virginia coal miners and those who depend upon their success,” said West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, one of the Republican officials who challenged the plan in court. “The court recognized the landscape has changed and that a decision on the merits is not appropriate at this time.”…
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/28/appeals-court-halts-case-clean-power-plan/
of course, Sierra Club says the fight isn’t over.
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In Australia, we have a sad tolerance of allowing those with personal dislikes to dictate those aversions as public policy.
One example is plastic bags given at supermarket checkouts to carry your groceries which leftist control freaks want banned, and have had banned in SA.
If someone doesn’t like such bags, they are welcome to stop using them but they have no moral right to impose this huge inconvenience on others.
The same applies to any individual that wants to stop using fossil fuels. They are welcome to do so themselves but have no moral right to impose this huge inconvenience on others.
Similarly for any other personal dislikes the control freaks have.
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Yes it sickens me to see most Australians putting up with so much crap. Then again we deserve the governments we get as the voters keep returning them over and over. Will they ever learn? I think so but probably not before we are in one hell of a mess.
20
???
30 Apr: ABC: Federal Labor backtracks on support of Adani’s planned Carmichael coal mine
By political reporter Dan Conifer
Earlier this month, Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten backed the project.
“I support the Adani coal mine so long as it stacks up. I hope it stacks up,” Mr Shorten said.
But Labor’s energy and environment spokesman Mark Butler today warned the development could hurt other coalmining areas.
“It will simply displace existing coal operations elsewhere in Australia,” Mr Butler said.
“There will be jobs lost elsewhere in Queensland or there will be jobs lost in the Hunter Valley.”…
Mr Butler said the bank’s (Westpac’s) move was further proof “the economics of this project don’t stack up”.
“The demand for thermal coal exports around the world is in rapid decline,” he said.
“I think instead we should be thinking about other economic development and job opportunities for North Queensland.”
He said the Carmichael project would need a “miracle” to proceed…
According to Forbes’ rich list, group chairman Gautam Adani and his family are worth more than $8 billion.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-30/federal-labor-backtracks-on-support-of-adani-coal-mine/8483932
20
meanwhile Queensland Labor!!!
28 Apr: Rockhampton Morning Bulletin: Jobs on horizon with released CQ land set to trigger coal rush
MORE than 270 square kilometres of Central Queensland, in one of the world’s leading coal production regions, is open for bids from explorers.
Minister for State Development and Minister for Natural Resources and Mines Dr Anthony Lynham yesterday announced tenders for four blocks in the Bowen Basin – the first release of Queensland coal country in four years.
“Resource developments which create jobs and attract economic investment to our regional communities must start with exploration,” he said.
“This land release is a significant opportunity for explorers to gain access to land with the potential for thermal and metallurgical coal in a word-leading production region.”
“Queensland is the world’s largest global exporter of metallurgical coal, shipping more than 162 million tonnes last year worth an estimated $17 billion, with continued high demand for our thermal coal.”…
The area is also serviced by Aurizon’s electrified Goonyella and Blackwater coal rail networks, providing access to the coal export terminals of Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay to the north and the Port of Gladstone to the south.
Preferred tenderers must meet environmental, native title and land access requirements before commencing on-ground exploration activity.
Tenders close on Thursday, 24 August 2017.
https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/jobs-on-horizon-as-huge-cq-land-release-set-to-tri/3172015/
30
Okay, as soon as I saw this, I went off and started looking, and it’s taken me around an hour or so to chase it all up.
Who would have thought that it’s just an exercise in money grubbing?
Okay then, so coal contract royalties paid to the Queensland Government. (Go here and click Coal)
(a) 7% for all contracts for the first $100
(b) (a) plus 12.5% for all contracts from $100 to %150
(c) (b) plus 15% for all contracts from $150 upwards.
Next, how much MetCoal (Coking coal) is mined in Queensland (go here and click the green download button, one page XL spreadsheet) and it’s that number at the very bottom right, 221,499 and it’s expressed in thousand Tonnes, so 2.45 Million tonnes.
Then just do the sums.
So, at the current price for metcoal of $175 per tonne, that gives the Queensland Government the tidy little sum of, umm, $3.8 Billion per year.
How cool is that eh!
No wonder they want to dig it up and sell it off, and who would have thought it was Labor doing this?
I wonder how many talking heads this will bring out of the woodwork, and notice they hid this media release away for a Saturday afternoon, and in a local Rockhampton news media outlet.
I see that Mark Butler has popped his tiny little Pixie Ann Wheatley head over the parapet and said that Federal Labor may withdraw support for the Adani mine.
It seems that dear leader Annastacia Palace Chook might not have run this by her Federal colleagues.
And surely this isn’t a Labor Government just hungry for the dollars that will come their way. It seems those dollars are more important than their climate change anti coal dogma, eh.
Tony.
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In SA there is a compulsory food container deposit rather than the voluntary scheme that applies in most other states, with high levels of compliance, whereby people put their recyclable containers in domestic recycling bins. In SA, consider the huge extra effort required for people to collect and accumulate their containers, bag them, and then drive them down to the recycling depot. It is a huge waste of effort and resources as well as inconvenience for something that is done for free with little effort, even in lunatic leftist states like Victoria.
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The deposit is for drink containers, and people do not have to take them to a recycling depot. They can be placed in recycling wheelie bins along with other recyclables. The deposit just encourages some people to collect them and cash them in. There is a bit less litter because of it. As a kid, me and a mate used to ride around town looking for empties so we could cash them in for some lollies at a deli.
30
1L glass bottles with their 20cent refund were like gold…
10
In the West it all boils down to a race between the political movements mandating the installation of climate mitigation controls at great public expense, and the scientists coming to a conclusion on the effects CO2 has on climate.
Personally I would go with a change to public education by stealth happening first, making more in-depth examination of historical weather events. For example, entertainment that subtly includes past weather extremes into story-lines. Geography, history and literature lessons in education that highlights past extreme weather events. (Winter campaign failure of both Hitler and Napoleon when invading Russia, the ‘Grapes of Wrath’ heatwaves, extreme weather event during the American War of Independence and the US Civil War, the Dalton and Maunder minimums, 1703 Great storm in Europe, the history of the rise and fall of great empires correlating with climate change, etc.) But all that would take time and money from the Western governments and concerted efforts by the movers and power brokers of media, education, and government officials.
However only when that happens could the public be asked how much money they want to (in all probability) waste on climate mitigation. Without people understanding how the climate varies over time, at timescales that are longer than a generation, can a proper debate on the matter be possible.
Today too many people are campaigning for drastic changes to the way we live based on very short term views and ideas. Additionally there is the push for ‘Sustainable development’ as defined by the UN and this is retrograde step for Western developed nations and the world — it only seeks to close the gap between ‘developing’ countries (China, India, etc) and the developed West by impoverishing the West by punitive taxation and legal restriction, reducing the West to nearer the developing nation status — all the while neglecting to improve the lot of the world’s poorest.
All the while the UN has no stomach to prevent wars or the acts of inhumane dictatorships any where in the world, so the innocent poor will continue to get poorer and suffering millions will be tortured, languish in jails and die horrible deaths. The UN’s mandate needs to change.
We live in interesting times.
TM
80
You have to give credit to Larry Pickering. He is right.
“THE NEW RIGHT HAS SCARED THE OLD FAR LEFT FURTHER LEFT”
and here it is
“Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Tom Perez’s announcement that pro-lifers are not welcome in his party”
So if you do not believe in abortion on demand, you are not welcome in the Democratic party!
Jermy Corbyn in England and now Tom Perez in the US.
Unbelievable. Self harm in the face of the resurgence of conservatism after twenty years of being told what to think.
Meanwhile we have Green banker Malcolm Turnbull who removed a vastly popular Prime Minister in his first term now telling us he will fix the energy crisis. I do not know the term for a herd of flying pigs, but there must be one.
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‘… telling us he will fix the energy crisis.’
To save his political life he will have to get the balance right, so two Chinese built coal fired power station are certainly on the cards for northern Australia.
He has to woo the voters back with the promise of decentralisation.
‘A Queensland Galaxy poll has Labor leading by 52-48, a one point gain for Labor since early February. Primary votes are 36% for Labor (up 5), 34% for the Liberal Nationals (up 1), 17% for One Nation (down 6) and 7% for the Greens (down 1).’
The Conversation
40
Well, the collective noun for pigs is “drift”, or “sounder”. Maybe the pilots among us can come up with an aeronautical reference.
O/T, but interesting. The collective noun for moles is “a labo
ur”.20
A ‘squadron’ of flying pigs?
10
I thought more along the lines of, “A Wing of porcine aviators.”
00
QUOTE
Conservative provocateur Milo Yiannopolos has wrangled $12 million from secret investors to launch a new media company focused on “making the lives of journalists, professors, politicians, feminists, Black Lives Matter activists, and other professional victims a living hell,” according to a new report.
END QUOTE
http://nypost.com/2017/04/28/milo-yiannopolos-is-plotting-his-revenge-with-12m-in-backing/amp/
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Milo has already created his own news website…worth a visit IMHO.
https://milo.yiannopoulos.net/
60
There are also rumours of moves to start a new conservative leaning cable TV network in the USA as many see Fox moving left with all the recent changes including the Murdoch boys having much input into the direction of Fox.
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read all:
30 Apr: Australian: Rachel Baxendale: Resources Minister Matthew Canavan says Westpac’s decision on coal is ‘illogical’
The Queensland senator said the move, announced on Friday, had prompted him to revert to the bank’s former name, the “Bank of New South Wales”, because they had proven they didn’t care about the people of Queensland.
Senator Canavan said Westpac had gone further than the other big four banks, because they had not only ruled out financing the Adani coal mine, but had ruled out all Galilee Basin projects.
“There are six potential mines (in the Galilee Basin) that have approval from the Queensland government at the moment,” he told Sky News.
“There’s a misapprehension out there that … it’s all about Adani, it’s not.
“It’s about developing a new basin for Australia, the first coal basin we’d open up for more than 40 years in the Galilee.
Senator Canavan said opening up the basin would create 16,000 direct jobs in six mines, some of which are Australian-owned enterprises…
“Three of the six mines actually would produce coal above their energy standard, and they’re saying no to them…
Senator Canavan accused the bank of kowtowing to activists who gatecrashed their 200th anniversary dinner earlier this month to protest against the Adani mine.
“If someone broke into my house and broke into my dinner party, I certainly wouldn’t be listening to them to any great degree,” he said.
“I’d be sending them on their way and telling them to bugger off.”…
Senator Canavan said he’d met with Adani Chairman Gautam Adani in Brisbane yesterday, and he was confident the project would get the finance it needed from other lenders…
Senator Canavan said he had recently read a speech by former Labor prime minister Gough Whitlam 40 years ago, when he wanted the federal government to subsidise coal-fire power stations, and not merely give them loans.
“You’d think the Labor Party being the party of labourers would support more jobs in the coalmining sector, you’d think the CFMEU would support the mining sector, you’d think the Australian Workers’ Union would support workers, but it is unfortunate that at times I think the support for these kinds of projects from Labor is lukewarm,” he said.
Senator Canavan gave the Queensland Labor government credit for supporting the Adani project, but accused Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of “dog-whistling about Indian billionaires”…
Shadow Environment Minister Mark Butler said the Adani project did not stack up and accused Senator Canavan of hypocrisy in attacking Westpac…
“It is a market in deep decline in China, it’s in decline and India is following exactly the same path as China.”
Mr Butler said India’s electricity plan, released in December, showed it would not be building new coal-fired power stations over the next decade.
“Instead, they’ll be building about 350 gigawatts of new solar and wind power,” he said…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/resources-minister-matthew-canavan-says-westpacs-decision-on-coal-is-illogical/news-story/8069414de846ed7725a343e7b20abcac
40
Oh laugh out so loudly, I fell over.
Yep, so deeply in decline that coal fired power generated 2.5% more power last year than the previous year, when it also increased, as it has for the last ten years.
And while 2.5% may not sound very much, that’s 120TWH more power in that last year than the previous year, and Australia’s total power generation from EVERY source is 200TWH, and in China, this was just from coal fired power alone.
So deep in decline, it increased by more than half an Australia.
Surely now Mark Butler is not a li@r. Surely not.
Tony.
161
Butler is probably not a liar, BUT he is most certainly as think as 3 bricks.
61
Tony,
Seems to me China makes sure to very publicly announce the closing of an old and dirty power source while quietly building a few new clean ones. Win, win.
India and Bangladesh are taking notes.
The concept of “appearances” comes to mind.
40
29 Apr: AllentownMorningCall: Steve Esack: Trump pledges to restore coal and steel during Harrisburg rally
To the applause of a crowd that filled the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex to the rafters, Trump said he has brought “profound change” to Washington. Saying that his only allegiance was to the people, he reiterated campaign pledges to restore manufacturing and reinvigorate the coal industry, noting no state more than Pennsylvania has felt the sting of those declining industries.
The message resonated with the audience, which chanted, “USA, USA.”…
“Our directives will put brand, new Pennsylvania steel into the spine of America,” he said at the rally.
His administration, the president added, “ended the war on beautiful, clean coal and we are putting our coal miners back to work.”…
http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-trump-rally-20170426-story.html
29 Apr: Breitbart: Lucas Nolan: Pence: ‘Under President Donald Trump, the War on Coal Is Over’
As the room filled with cheers and applause Pence continued, “Since even before President Trump took office, we have been fighting for American jobs and American workers. For the past 100 days, President Trump has been slashing through red tape. He signed more bills cutting job-killing regulations than any president in American history.”
“He approved the keystone and Dakota pipelines,” said Pence to thunderous applause, “[President Trump] opened up offshore drilling. He has put America back on the path to energy independence, and thanks to Donald Trump, the war on coal is over.”…
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/04/29/trumps-opening-act-in-harrisburg-pa-vice-president-mike-pence/
40
Hillarious!
“Heavy snow forces postponement of People’s Climate March rally in Colorado”
http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/29/peoples-climate-march-postponed-colorado-due-snow/
100
one for TonyfromOz to analyse, given Mark Butler’s claims re India:
from Economic Times India’s sponsored section, Energy World (see sponsors at bottom of pages). written by anti-Trump, anti-Abbott Sydneysider who used to work for AFP, Amy Coopes:
29 Apr: EconomicTimesIndia: Amy Coopes: Australian universities vital in India’s energy push, minister says
Visiting UNSW this week, Mr Piyush Goyal, India’s Minister for Power, Coal and New and Renewable Energy, said more effective and affordable energy solutions were required, stressing a one-size-fits-all approach would not work in his rapidly modernising nation of 1.2 billion people.
The minister was accompanied by officials from India’s ministries of coal, new and renewable energy, and petroleum and natural gas, as well as a business delegation. All were interested in exploring partnership opportunities with UNSW’s world-leading photovoltaics and resources programs…
The tour was followed by a government and industry roundtable on opportunities for collaboration in the renewable sector, with a broad range of local industries attending to present to and hear from the minister.
Austrade, the Department of Industry and the New South Wales state government were partners in the event.
In order to succeed in the Indian context, Minister Goyal said new technologies had to “scale up” in a way that was affordable when compared with coal-fired energy.
“We really need to change the thinking and change the viewpoint, making it more focused on competitiveness with thermal power,” he told the roundtable. “Otherwise certainly it’s going to be a challenge in India to sell this.”
“That is what the Indian public is demanding – more and more competition, more and more effective solutions that are going to be affordable.”…
Several UNSW researchers presented to the delegates, including Head of the School of Mining Engineering, Paul Hagan, and Professor Darren Bagnall, head of the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, who pointed to the University’s unrivalled pedigree on solar cell efficiency. UNSW has held the world record for converting sunlight to electricity in 27 of the last 31 years.
India, which is currently ranked 10th in the world for solar, and targeting 100 gigawatts (CAPACITY???) of solar energy by 2022 with a significant rooftop rollout on the cards, offered significant opportunities in the photovoltaics sector, Minister Goyal said.
“If cost can be made more economical, more viable, if more research is being done in that area, ***and particularly if manufacture shifts to India it could possibly become more competitive and open up big business opportunities.”…
Head of the School for Petroleum Engineering, Professor Klaus Regenauer-Lieb, and colleague Professor Sheik Rahman presented their research that demonstrates the use of microbes to produce methane gas from coal seams, enhancing their productivity.
Minister Goyal said this was a “priority area” in India, which had huge unmet demand for natural gas.
UNSW Vice-President, Advancement, Ms Jennie Lang, said the University had been the “birthplace of the solar revolution” almost four decades ago, establishing itself as a world leader in energy, “particularly in the renewable energy space”.
“When we look at India we can see many exciting things happening,” she said, describing the country as “at the cutting edge of science” and a pioneer in innovation and technology, leading a number of mutually beneficial academic partnerships supported by the Australia-India Strategic Research Fund…
http://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/australian-universities-vital-in-indias-energy-push-minister-says/58427514
more to come.
50
29 Apr: EconomicTimesIndia: IANS: If India meets renewables target, no more coal power needed till 2027
From January 2016 to January 2017, development of coal-fired power capacity fell around the world, according to a March 2017 report titled “Boom and Bust”, released jointly by the Sierra Club, Greenpeace and Coalswarm.
Using data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker, an online database developed by Coalswarm that identifies, maps and categorises every known 30-MW and larger coal-fired power generating unit and every new unit proposed since January 1, 2010, the report maps a global move away from coal and towards renewable energy.
In China and India alone, construction activities that would add 68 GW — over a fifth of India’s total installed capacity — of additional coal capacity are frozen across 100 project sites, 13 of them in India…
The primary reason for the slowdown in India is “reluctance of banks and other financiers to provide further funds”, ***the report said. Over half (56.5 per cent) of India’s installed power CAPACITY will be non-fossil fuel-based — renewables, nuclear and large hydroelectric — within 10 years.
In India, as of February 2017, at least 15 coal-based thermal power projects with an aggregate capacity of 18,420 MW (18.42 GW) were stalled due to financial reasons, the Ministry of Power told the Lok Sabha in February.
***However, in March 2017, the Cabinet revived some struggling power projects with a cumulative CAPACITY of some 30 GW under a new Mega Power Policy by providing support of about Rs 10,000 crore to the sector, in addition to incentives such as custom duty waiver for import of capital equipment and tax breaks. This was done to relieve the burden of stressed assets on banks, estimated at Rs 1.5 lakh crore.
“The slowdown in the coal power pipeline brings the possibility of holding global warming to below 2°C from pre-industrial levels within feasible reach,” the “Boom and Bust” report stated. However, this hinges on countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey and Japan limiting their future coal power development, China and India reinforcing and increasing the slowdown, and developed countries (historically largest emitters) retiring coal-based power plants faster than they have been doing.
India does not plan on expanding its coal-fired capacity during 2017-22, according to the Draft National Electricity Plan proposed in December 2016 by the Central Electricity Authority. It bases this projection on the presumption that non-fossil fuel CAPACITY addition will continue as targeted — 4.3 GW of gas-fired plants, 15 GW of hydroelectric plants, 2.8 GW of nuclear installations and 115 GW of various renewable sources, which would come online during 2017-22.
***The plan, however, does take into account 50 GW of coal-based installations that are currently under different stages of construction and are likely to yield benefits during the 2017-22 period, concluding that no coal-based capacity addition is required until at least 2027…
In 2016-17, India’s estimated peak demand of 165.2 GW was significantly lower than total installed capacity of over 300 GW. Coal-fired capacity of over 180 GW alone was higher than the peak demand. Despite this, the country continues to face acute power shortages due to coal supply problems, transmission and distribution losses and poor health of power utilities.
According to government figures, estimated electricity consumption between 2005-06 and 2014-15 increased by a compounded annual growth rate of 8.72 per cent, growing to 948,328 gigawatt-hour, even as an estimated 240 million Indare still without access to electricity.
Already, use of imported coal is costing the country. In 2014-15, coal imports were 212 million tonnes (MT) and cost over Rs 1 lakh crore — up more than five times from 38.5 MT in 2005-06, due largely to poor quality of domestic coal, lack of competition among producers, and insufficient investments.
Tariffs for renewables in India, especially solar, have fallen heavily — by 73 per cent since 2010. In February 2017, at the Rewa solar park auction, a levelised tariff of Rs 3.3/kilowatt-hour was achieved, competitive with the cost of new coal-fired power generation. Wind tariffs, too, fell to a record low of Rs 3.46/unit in the same month. The jury is out on whether these low tariffs are sustainable, but the trend is undoubtedly positive for renewables.
India would also need to invest in smart grid systems, storage options and demand-side flexibility to manage the variability of renewables.
The building of a green energy corridor, along with renewable energy management centres, will prove vital for evacuation of power between states, since solar and wind power potential is concentrated in a few states — nine are expected to account for more than 77 per cent of renewable energy CAPACITY addition by 2022…
http://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/if-india-meets-renewables-target-no-more-coal-power-needed-till-2027/58433107
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***EXPERIMENTING…
29 Apr: Livemint: Govt to experiment with offshore wind projects: Piyush Goyal
by Gireesh Chandra Prasad
India will ***experiment with offshore wind power projects and, if found promising, will have state-owned power producers committed to expanding their clean energy portfolio take bigger bets in the segment, said Piyush Goyal, minister of state with independent charge of mines, power, coal and new and renewable energy.
While the share of clean energy in the electricity sector will be expanded, the government is taking steps to improve the quality of the coal mined in the country and is looking at redesigning imported coal-based power plants to run on local coal, the minister said at a discussion on Future of globalization : Can India lead at the CII annual session in New Delhi.
“We are open to new things. If needed, we will have public sector companies like NTPC to look into this (offshore wind) segment. NTPC is looking to double its generation capacity from 50 GW. Initially we can look at it as a research and development project,” said Goyal.
India’s intended “nationally determined contribution”, a commitment made at the UN framework convention on climate change in Paris in 2015, is to rely on non-fossil fuels for 40% of electricity generation by 2030.
“Offshore is a very interesting opportunity. Plant load factor (capacity utilization) is higher in the order of 45%.
Now, cost has come down and it is viable,” said Sumant Sinha, chairman & CEO, ReNew Power Ventures Pvt Ltd, who was present at the function.
Goyal said the government will take the lead in making electric vehicles viable by providing low-cost finance. The government will also support setting up charging stations. “One could drive into a fuel station and get the battery swapped as fast as tyres are changed in a Formula One race. I need three years to make electric mobility sustainable,” Goyal said.
The government is also working on redesigning coal power plants which are designed for imported coal, to run on domestic coal, which will improve demand for the local fuel, the minister added.
http://www.livemint.com/Industry/r0ujY5jgRKqPaVU2PB8dkI/Govt-to-experiment-with-offshore-wind-projects-Piyush-Goyal.html
29 Apr: EconomicTimesIndia: Reuters: Tesla Inc says subsidiary SolarCity will stop selling solar door-to-door
The move comes at a time when growth in sales of residential solar systems has slowed in key states, including California, where Tesla is based. Industry watchers say consumers in more mature solar markets have tired of the industry’s aggressive sales tactics.
by Nichola Groom
most sales are generated through customer referrals, door-to-door sales became a significant means of reaching new customers over the last three years.
Most affected employees will be reassigned to other sales channels or given the opportunity to interview for other positions, Tesla said. About 1,000 people work in door-to-door sales for the company…
http://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/tesla-inc-says-subsidiary-solarcity-will-stop-selling-solar-door-to-door/58427713
40
Okay, In the University of Life Humanity is about to face the Finals.
Currently, human behaviour is similar to many animal species that experiences overcrowding, they begin to attack each other.
Christianity commands “Go forth and multiply”, but this is now creating doubt and doubt leads to argument.
What will life be like for those who pass the finals?
30
“ overcrowding . . . attack each other”
This seems not to explain the strife in, say Mexico versus Hong Kong. Not to mention the eat-your-young Polar Bears versus a Termite mound.
“The Finals” are happening. Most countries have stopped growing population internally, many are declining, and world-wide will peak within ~35 years.
When religion, socialist ideologies, and dictators do not intervene, life gets better.
30
Not to do with climate but for those interested in what is going in Syria this doco video on Aleppo is well worth watching
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCOVHGLPtL4
20
Have the “standards” (????) for nominating a cyclone changed?
Cyclone Frances had max winds of 55 kph and pressure at the centre of 998.
Surely this is yet another form of homogenisation by our esteemed BoM.
Australia’s BoM shows the same level of honesty as NASA.
70
“Have the “standards” (????) for nominating a cyclone changed?”
The criteria have not changed, but premature allocation of names seems to be getting worse.
“Cyclone Frances had max winds of 55 kph and pressure at the centre of 998.”
So that’s a tropical low. This thing has passed close to a number of stations, but none show pressure less than 1000 or gusts anywhere near 55kph. Fish Reef is “not operational in last 72 hours” so it doesn’t look like retrospective damage (such as “occurred” last year at Middle Percy Island after Marcia went past). No rotation visible on satellite.
30
QUESTION:
Does volcanic CO2 have any particular isotopic composition which enables it to be distinguished from “background” CO2 and anthropogenic CO2?
30
I found the answer. Interesting paper.
http://carbon-budget.geologist-1011.net/
20
From the referred paper:
00
David,
Will you be attending the Lake Goldsmith Steam rally next weekend?
20
I expect to on Sunday.
For anyone who doesn’t know about this and is interested in old steam and internal combustion engines, it is worth checking out.
http://www.lakegoldsmithsteamrally.org.au/
00
Ahh, the virtue signalling of TWO red thumbs. It is a futile attempt to vote for what reality is. It is all for naught.
The fact of the matter is that reality alone has a vote for what it is. All others can only struggle to understand and live or die based upon the quality of that understanding.
Agree or disagree all you wish. Either way, it is irrelevant. Like it or not, reality is only what it is, no more and no less. Our challenge is in the understanding of and knowing what it is.
If a lone individual actually does know a truth, it is true even if the rest of mankind says it is false. Then strives to force the lone individual to recant what he knows and can demonstrate.
For a case in point, see Galaleo vs the self identified and sanctified one-true-church of roughly 500 years ago. In spite of his being forced to recant, the earth was NOT flat and moved around the sun rather than being the stationary center of the universe. Quite contrary to the dogma held as the only truth by the then so called one-true-church.
53
I love this. Thx.
00
The alarmist may be interest to find that coral can regulate the CO2 in their environment…
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a12.php
30
The alarmist may be interest to find that corals can regulate the CO2 in their environment…
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a12.php
20
The corrupting influence of Nobel Prizes on science can be seen by reading and comparing Chadwick’s
1. 1932 report of experimental evidence for the neutron as Rutherford’s compacted electron-proton pair, and
2. 1935 Noble Lecture saying the QM system prevented the neutron from being Rutherford’s electron-proton pair.
20
Here’s a little light reading and discussion material for the weekend. And yes, the aliens have been here belief still enjoys popularity, even with college professors.
I leave interpreting this to you. As for myself, I’m having a good laugh about it, not because I think it impossible that aliens traveled to Earth from somewhere else, even as close as Mars, though I do think it never happened but because of the near zero probability of it, so close as to be indistinguishable from ZERO.
Keep in mind that AOL will put up anything to get a little sensationalism going and have a good laugh or whatever else you can make of this. 🙂
31
And Jo, the sequence numbering is messed up again. My post about alien visitation evidence was the last thing on my monitor when I hit the button to post it. It’s at #47
20
It should have fallen in line after #59 by Oliver Manuel.
20
And now, strangely the sequence numbering is back as I think it should have been after posting #47.1.1.
Does the server have hiccups?
Color me confused. Never trust a computer. They are treacherous little devils with evil intent. 😉
40
Roy they have been here for a long long time, prove me wrong?
20
Gordo,
I’ll prove you wrong on the same day you prove you’ve stopped beating your wife. 😉
00
Same problem isn’t it? Can’t prove the negative.
00
A truly excellent article on the stupidity of Quantitative Easing and other money printing exercises by central banks in the pursuit of stable “growth”
Central Banks’ Obsession with Price Stability Leads to Economic Instability
Something the “this time it’s different” and “China is different” crowds should think about.
20
Hypocrites abound. Richard Branson marches with climate change alarmists telling people they should cut down CO2 emissions yet he spends millions to help launch rich people into space for fun by adding masses amount of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Such hypocrites make me sick. Either he shuts up or he gives up his space tourism enterprise and spend all those millions on starving people.
50
Bill Nye has recently lost it – not that he had much in the first place – just a fool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th59Viesjt0
20
PeterS
Are you saying The End is Nye?
20
Very funny Grameme No.3. I wish it was for him – he is such a fake.
10
only report online so far:
1 May: EnergyMatters: Solar energy scam affects everyday Australians
Consumers are once again being targeted by fraudulent companies promising crazy discounts and claims that can’t be delivered…
“LG Energy Solutions” an unofficial reseller of LG solar products has been accused of scamming people by taking their money and not installing the purchased products.
The company has now gone into liquidation as more bad blood surfaces from users online. LG has now taken the step to publicly disassociate themselves with the company through a statement on their website…
http://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/solar-energy-scam-australians-em6014/
LG Energy: A MESSAGE TO OUR CUSTOMERS
It has come to LG Electronics attention that a company calling itself LG Energy Solutions with the website http://www.lgenergyaustralia.com has recently appeared on the internet offering LG branded solar panels and battery solutions. Please be advised that LG Electronics Australia has no affiliation or association with the company LG Energy Solutions and that they are not an authorised LG partner.
https://www.lgenergy.com.au/
more details here:
Apr 2017: WhirlpoolForums: “LG Energy Solutions” – Scammers
http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2627111
10
comment has gone into moderation re:
1 May: EnergyMatters: Solar energy scam affects everyday Australians
10
sad to see this published by the Mercury:
30 Apr: SanJoseMercuryNews: California coast ocean level could rise 10 feet in 70 years
Addressing sea-level rise would cost a staggering amount of public and private money
By Julie Cart, CALmatters
(CALmatters is a nonprofit media venture that covers California policies and politics)
The speed with which polar ice is melting and glacier shelves are cracking off indicates to some scientists that once-unthinkable outer-range projections of sea rise may turn out to be too conservative. A knee-buckling new state-commissioned report warns that if nothing changes, California’s coastal waters will rise at a rate 30 to 40 times faster than in the last century.
Last month the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that without concerted intervention, as much as 67 percent of Southern California’s beaches could be lost to rising seas by the end of the century.
A consensus of scientific research makes catastrophic projections that, in the worst case, will be reality by the end of this century…DETAILS
The 10-foot rise scenario, which scientists peg as the new worst-case, would cause a land loss of 800 feet – the length of two-and-a-half football fields.
OUT OF DATE
The sobering fact of those state-of-the-art reports, recent though they are, is that they are already out of date and not nearly comprehensive enough in describing the scale of what currently faces California…READ ON
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/30/oceans-rising-faster-than-scientific-forecasts/
***Highly Cited!
California Sea Level Could Rise 10 Feet By End Of This Century
***Highly Cited-Huffington Post-27 Apr. 2017
27 Apr: Scientific American: Rising Sea Levels Will Hit California Harder Than Other Places
Melting ice sheets will cause higher sea-level rise in the state due to how the Earth rotates and gravitational pull on the waters
By Anne C. Mulkern, E&E News
Melting in Antarctica puts the California coast essentially “in the bull’s-eye” of the magnified sea-level rise, said Dan Cayan, director of the Climate Research Division at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego…
10-foot rise possible…
“The probability of this scenario is currently unknown, but its consideration is important, particularly for high-stakes, long-term decisions,” the report said…
David Behar, climate program director at the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, cautioned that the state needs to be “more transparent and clear about where 10-foot number comes from.”
“That’s the biggest number that I’ve seen in any of the reports, including in the NOAA report … so we need to understand where that number came from and help people understand how to use it, ” he said. His agency likely will increase rates to fund adaptation, he said, so clarity is essential…
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rising-sea-levels-will-hit-california-harder-than-other-places/
10
Of course the rise will only affect California. Oregon to the north and Mexico to the south will be unaffected.
30
the real reason behind Tesla halting door-to-door sales for SolarCity:
29 Apr: Bloomberg: Tesla Is Halting Door-to-Door Sales for SolarCity Amid Slowdown
by Dana Hill & Mark Chediak
The announcement comes amid a slowdown in rooftop solar installations across major markets in the U.S…
Annual residential rooftop installations are forecast to increase by about 3 percent this year, down from about 64 percent just two years ago, according to a December report (LINK) by Bloomberg New Energy Finance…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-28/tesla-is-halting-door-to-door-sales-for-solarcity-amid-slowdown
where the action is:
30 Apr: Reuters: Global pension funds warm to India’s solar power ambitions
By Devidutta Tripathy and Sudarshan Varadhan
India estimates peak electricity demand will more than quadruple in the next two decades to 690 gigawatt (GW), which would require rapid growth in generation and transmission capacity.
That potential, helped by cheaper solar material costs and government efforts to curb pollution, is drawing global investors, including Canada’s top pension fund managers – Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), and Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan (OTPP)…
CDPQ, which has C$270.7 billion ($199 billion) in net assets, says it plans to invest in India’s solar sector with Azure Power, a New York-listed firm with about 1 GW of solar capacity under various stages of development…
Other international investors have already entered India’s renewable energy sector, such as Dutch fund manager APG, Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management, the private equity arms of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, and European utilities EDF, Engie and Enel…
Solar power generation capacity in India has more than tripled in less than three years to over 12 GW, helped by lower module prices and borrowing costs, and a government drive – but that is still only around 4 percent of total power capacity of about 315 GW…
Funding and M&A in India’s solar sector amounted to around $1.6 billion in January-March, says research firm Mercom…
NOT ALL SUNSHINE
None of this comes without risk, of course.
Investors could face payment delays from India’s heavily-indebted power distribution firms, and some experts note that the bidding for projects in government auctions is too aggressive, with per unit prices slumping more than 70 percent since 2010.
“Getting returns on investments … and getting paid by distribution companies are the major risks being assessed by foreign investors,” said Sumant Sinha, CEO at ReNew Power, a renewable energy firm backed by Goldman…
Intermittency – power is only produced under bright sunlight – is another issue, as there are additional costs for using inverters or diesel generators to use solar power at night.
“Based on current market conditions and policies, I see a path to 65-70 GW (solar capacity) by 2022, but not more,” said Mercom CEO Raj Prabhu.
That’s still some way short of the government pledge for 100 GW by 2022…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-solar-analysis-idUSKBN17W051
cui bono?
30 Apr: EconomicTimesIndia: China is biggest exporter of solar equipment to India with 87 per cent market share
By Kaavya Chandrasekaran
While India imported solar equipment worth $2.17 billion (Rs 14,630 crore) in the 10 months between April 2016 and January 2017, its exports were just $60.3 million (Rs 404 crore).
Indeed, in these 10 months, solar imports into India increased by 39% over the corresponding period the previous year, while exports dropped 56%.
“The reason is that Chinese solar panels are 10-20% cheaper than domestically manufactured modules and no developer wants to willingly pay more,” says Raj Prabhu, CEO and co-founder, Mercom…
China was the biggest exporter of solar equipment to India, according to Mercom’s findings during the 10-month period, with 87% market share and accounting for $1.9 billion, while Malaysia was a distant second with 8% share, at a total value of $170.42 million.
00
That same muppet I mentioned in Comment 22 also mentioned grid scale battery storage, and spoke as if this was actually ‘new’ generation. He threw out a number of 4000MWH, as if, hey no problems. It will be used also to alleviate the stress on the system at that evening peak.
Look again at the load curve I linked to.
With all other power in play, that evening consumption is around an average of 24,000MW to 28,000MW, so let’s just use that low figure there. That shows an almost constant usage of that figure of 24,000MW for three hours, hence 72,000MWH or 24,000MWH per hour.
So now, let’s actually pretend, for just a teensy microsecond that they can actually get batteries (lots and lots and lots of them) that actually can deliver at that rate of 4000MWH. In effect, if that’s all you had, then this humungous and unobtainable level of storage can supply all that power needed ….. for, umm, ten minutes. (24,000 divided by 4000 is 6, and 60 minutes divided by six is ten minutes.) Great. eh! What a saviour!
However, see that the peak stretches out for three hours, so they’ll spread that power delivery across those three hours so around 1300MWh per hour for three hours, so that’s only 5% of the power, the idea being that this will somehow lower emissions, but hey, do you really think that they’ll shut down 2 units at one coal fired power plant for three hours. Nup, they’ll just derate them a little, because the plant, by its very nature has to keep burning and turning. So, no savings on CO2 emissions there.
Okay then, mister smart ar$e economist, what about those economics you’re so good at?
As I said, this is not new power.
They actually have to charge the batteries.
So, instead of the case of shutting down CO2 emitting power plants, we now have to keep them open outside that evening peak, and running to supply that 4000MWH to fully charge those batteries. So, that’s now done in multiples of 4000MWH, so 400MW at ten hours to fully charge them all, or 800MW at five hours, and that’s a lot of power now being diverted to charge the batteries, and not supplying the grid, or not just plain shutting down to save on those CO2 emissions. Nup, now they need that power to charge the batteries. As an example, that’s using EVERY wind plant in Australia for three and a half hours just to charge the batteries, not actually supplying that power to the grid, but just to charge those batteries, and that’s using the average, because on some days they would never get fully charged at all using the wind, so they need dedicated power plants which actually can supply at that dedicated rate of charge, eg, coal fired power.
So now, instead of making power cheaper by having this grid scale battery storage available, they have actually made it more expensive. They have to buy the power to charge the batteries, so when they sell that power at that evening peak, they have to recover the cost during charge, plus the cost of the batteries extrapolated across MWH sold, plus maintenance, plus profit margin. So, by specific design, they have taken cheap power, (during the charging period) and made it more expensive.
And then we have the economics of the life of these batteries. By the very nature of the battery(ies) they can only handle a certain number of cycles. So now we have a super fast charge, and an even quicker discharge. Let’s pretend we are the battery proponents, you know, those who say that they’ll last literally forever at their full rated best case power delivery, instead of the actual 10 years, 15 at best. So now we have the case where we have a coal fired power plant (you know, what will actually be utilised to charge these things) with a lifespan of 50 years, and here you have enormously expensive batteries which will need to be originally purchased, and then replaced anything up to four times at best, and please don’t try and tell me they’ll get cheaper. (the age of altruism has long since passed)
Every time I hear one of these people open their mouth, I cringe, because I know exactly what is coming, and they’re always bl00dy economists.
Tony.
120
please don’t try and tell me they’ll get cheaper. (the age of altruism has long since passed)
Batteries are going to get cheaper.
16
I really don’t think that you understood a single word I wrote.
Add to that the losses of converting the physical energy at charge to chemical energy and then back again from chemical energy to electrical energy via inverters to convert it to usable AC power.
The power that they end up delivering will NEVER be cheaper than the power required to charge them in the first place, making batteries, by extrapolation, more expensive than any other form of power generation.
It is not NEW power.
And 4,000MWH of batteries. Please Willard, show me where there is currently 4,000MWH of batteries supplying any grid.
Tony.
110
I really don’t think that you understood a single word I wrote.
I understood “please don’t tell me they’ll get cheaper”, thats a brave statement to make Tony.
16
I do hope one day you can contribute for a change…
20
I suppose batteries could get cheaper. But will that save Renewable Energy?
30
That probably applies to most of the electrical engineers who visit this site. Because what you wrote was rubbish.
Please explain how the laws of supply and demand will not apply in the case of batteries. We are not talking about 1.5V EverReady’s, but some serious chemical reactions that are prone to going “bang”, from time to time.
And with the toxic chemicals involved in the said “bang”, being within the “bang radius” could be somewhat detrimental to the well-being of any passing observer.
I don’t think you understood a single word you wrote.
60
There’s nothing more safety procedural than working on a Flight Line with fighter or bomber aircraft, and I did that with four Squadrons spread across ten years.
And as an Electrical tradesman, there’s one place actually more safety procedural than the flight line, and that’s the battery room. No one liked working there, and it was a three Month attachment, and everyone was always glad to get out of that job. I wore it, and oddly, it was an interesting time, because, what it did was focus the mind. At the end of my three Months, I went back to my WOff at 76 Squadron, and asked if I could extend for a second stint. He looked at me like I was crazy, and asked me why. I told him that at the end of three Months, you were just starting to get it right and then it ended, and I wanted to know ‘stuff’, not just do it as a chore to be finished with and go onto your RTE.
He agreed, and back I went for another three Months.
We did it all, Lead Acid, and Alkaline, two separate rooms, with rigid no mixing of the two types.
We mixed electrolyte, from the raw Concentrated Sulphuric Acid, in lead lined tubs, rigged up to the hilt, with backup, and airflow, and done very very very carefully. Had to be done at start of day, because it took a full day to cool down. We distilled our own pure water. Batteries were lovingly treated, but with absolute and utmost respect.
We did fortnight about in Lead Acid, and then in Alkaline.
The Alkaline side was just as tricky, and in fact was one of the few times in my time in the RAAF that I actually feared for my life. That was a Thermal Runaway incident, and thankfully, it was my only one experience. And it starts slowly and once going it’s like it says ….. Thermal Runaway. Actually blew a hole in the cell where it started and that buckled the metal case the cells were held in. Never seen anything like it, and never want to see it again. I’m not sure what would be worse, Acid burns or Alkaline burns. That was freaky. Took us a day to clean up the Alkaline side back to pristine, which is the only way to keep things in any battery room.
Okay then, here we have an Alkaline Battery, 24 cells, 28 Volts 40 Amp Hours.
The battery in a Mirage is the absolute last resort. There’s the DC side, the AC side, and 2 Inverters, basically just for instruments alone. If the Generator fails, you can get DC via the Transformer rectifier Unit which gives you enough DC to run essentials. If AC and DC both fail, then all you have is the Battery, the DC supply of absolute last resort, enough power to get you somewhere where you can eject as safely as a pilot might think possible, and all going well, that could be enough for three to five minutes absolute tops, so unless you’re actually on finals, it’s not likely to get you back to base to actually land the thing.
So 28 volts and 40 Amp Hours, that’s, oh let’s say 1.1KWH
So then, 4000MWH of grid scale batteries is around 3.64 Million of those aircraft batteries.
So Willard, they’d want to be pretty d@mned cheap.
And you wonder why I’m so confident grid scale batteries of 4000MWH are a long long long way off.
And as to thermal runaway. It only takes one cell, and the noise was like a hand grenade going off, and it spreads from cell to cell while you watch, carefully moving backwards as fast as you can.
That six Months in the Battery room stood me in good stead on an away detachment to Darwin. They had a major battery problem, and they turned to me, and for once, I was the focus, and the one with the knowledge, and after that, I found a lot more respect, not just from my fellows, but from those above, in fact all the way to the CO, and his SEngO. Whereas before I was just a face on the Flight Line, now I was the guy who had the knowledge to get them out of a tricky situation, all to do with overheat, and loss of charge related to excess heat.
Tony.
40
We did it all, Lead Acid, and Alkaline, two separate rooms, with rigid no mixing of the two types.
Interesting work you write about above Tony, how does discussing battery tech from the last century back your claim about battery costs in this century?
Let me just summarize for those that missed it; On May 1st 2017 Tony suggests battery costs will NOT get cheaper, brave statement, big call to make, let’s see what the future holds.
00
Willard,
As Mark Twain said
“Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities.
Truth isn’t.”
20
An Economist is someone who would marry Rachel Welsh for her money.
00
I hope that several of you will be making submissions to the Review of Australia’s climate change policies being conducted by the Dept of Environment & Energy. Submissions are due by this Friday May 5th. The published discussion paper by the DoE simply pats themselves on the head by saying it is good that Australia is meeting its Paris targets.
Joanne, I trust that you will contribute, even if it is simply by providing links to several of your very pertinent articles.
The review seeks inputs on the impact of climate change policies on jobs, investment, trade competitiveness, households and regional Australia.
What an indictment of policy making when there is no formal published analysis by government of these impacts.
Climate change policies must be put on hold until these critical issues are addressed.
Some of the public submissions to the parallel inquiry led by Chief Scientist Dr Alan Finkel into the reliability and affordability of the electricity market highlight the challenges industry is facing:
– BHP Billiton: The need for change is urgent. Increasing energy prices and supply disruptions hinder the competitiveness of Australian businesses and threaten future investment.
– CSR: This review must examine ways and means to lower electricity prices, not contain or minimise increases.
– National Farmers: The National Electricity Market is broken and needs to be fixed. Both reliability and affordability are key for agricultural producers.
– Rio Tinto: It is imperative that near term changes do not increase the cost of electricity. It should not be looking to trade-exposed industries to pay subsidies to renewable generators.
– Tomago Aluminium: If the trend of rising electricity prices continues, electricity will no longer be affordable for TAC.
Wholesale electricity prices in Victoria have escalated to $108.19/MWhr (that’s 10.8 cents/KWhr) in April following the closure of Hazelwood power station compared to an average of $46/MWhr in 2016. Victorian wholesale gas prices averaged $4/gigajoule 2012-2016. However in Q1 2017 the price more than doubled to $9/gigajoule.
Policy assessment: Fail.
There needs to be a new and overarching national policy that delivers affordable and reliable electricity and natural gas for business and consumers that is internationally competitive.
00
Cold Air Outbreak (CAO) in Europe is only weather, apparently.
‘According to the preliminary results for April, 2017, from Germany’s DWD national weather service, the month came in at a mean temperature of 7.5°C for the central European country, or 0.8°C colder than the 1981-2010 mean of 8.3°C. This makes the month completely NOT in line with the warming that Germany’s DWD expects.
‘After a record warm March, the DWD wrote in its March report that it was all expected as part of climate change. For April they made no mention of global warming, citing weather patterns.’
– See more at: http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.E5WmxLPy.dpuf
20
‘Global temperatures have dropped 0.5° Celsius in April according to U.S meteorologist Ryan Maue. In the Northern Hemisphere they plunged a massive 1°C . As the record 2015/16 El Nino levels off, the global warming hiatus is back with a vengeance.’
GWPF
31
‘More chilly nights on the way after coolest April in years.’
SMH
30
” John Galt | May 1, 2017 3:15 AM | Reply
What the climate wars did to science
What went wrong with Lysenko and dietary fat was that in each case a monopoly was established. Lysenko’s opponents were imprisoned or killed. Nina Teicholz’s book The Big Fat Surprise shows in devastating detail how opponents of Ancel Keys’s dietary fat hypothesis were starved of grants and frozen out of the debate by an intolerant consensus backed by vested interests, echoed and amplified by a docile press.
This is precisely what has happened with the climate debate and it is at risk of damaging the whole reputation of science. The “bad idea” in this case is not that climate changes, nor that human beings influence climate change; but that the impending change is sufficiently dangerous to require urgent policy responses.
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/what-the-climate-wars-did-to-science.aspx
”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/05/reader-tips-3822.html#comment-1102528
(From one readers tips to another
30
” John Galt | May 1, 2017 3:15 AM | Reply
What the climate wars did to science
What went wrong with Lysenko and dietary fat was that in each case a monopoly was established. Lysenko’s opponents were imprisoned or killed. Nina Teicholz’s book The Big Fat Surprise shows in devastating detail how opponents of Ancel Keys’s dietary fat hypothesis were starved of grants and frozen out of the debate by an intolerant consensus backed by vested interests, echoed and amplified by a docile press.
This is precisely what has happened with the climate debate and it is at risk of damaging the whole reputation of science. The “bad idea” in this case is not that climate changes, nor that human beings influence climate change; but that the impending change is sufficiently dangerous to require urgent policy responses.
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/what-the-climate-wars-did-to-science.aspx
”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/05/reader-tips-3822.html#comment-1102528
(From one readers tips to another)
00
Jo – FYI
I just got a WordPress error – “you’re posting comments too quickly – slow down”
WT – –
20
And this looked like it should have posted at the end of the thread
10
Poor Old Telsa
They build the Ultimate GREEN Battery Machine
Loved by all the LEFT & GREENS & TREEHUGGERS
They forgot one thing
These Political parties are run by UNIONS!
WOW, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk argued that the Grohmann workers,
should accept that they could get a much bigger stock-based payday down the road.
OH! Right, the workers LOVE SHARE certificates they can’t sell for years & years, like the 12 year Silicon Valley contracts!
He didn’t think about buying factories in Germany! VW just happens to be around the corner! All the UNION Leaders are quite happy having lunch in their factories!
ELON will be in bigger strife than Skase or Bondie shortly!
If anyone follows EV car development, the LUCID is going to eat TESLA for breakfast!
10
That LUCID sounds cool Dave, tell me more, where are they made? as you follow EV developement you should be the full bottle.
21
.
By ex-TELSA chappies
Research is the key Willard!
Try it!
12
It’s spelt T-E-S-L-A, research is the key Dave.
11
Nope
It’s being rebranded!
Had such a BAD name!
ehheEEE! 🙂
Auto-spell Check similar to Auto-pilot in early TELSA’s!
Ehhee
10
Oh for heaven’s sake, that is all we needed. An amateur “spy” who thinks he/she can cut it with the professionals.
I blame it on too much television drama, and not enough reality TV.
22
Unthread as it is, Telstra struggles on with errors plaguing their SSU compliance issue.
Excuses for failures include ‘staff error’, “human error” and “data quality issues”
Read more at http://www.zdnet.com/article/telstra-staff-error-continues-plaguing-ssu-compliance/
Nice to see Australia’s major telco is so lax with securing your data.
10
Maybe not entirely unrelated —
“Commissioner of the Australian Federal Police waltzed out in front of the microphones and admitted that his agency had misused the metadata that the nation’s telecommunication companies are forced to store.”
Basically a VPN account in Australia will not save you from government surveillance.
20
Also of interest is that the Japanese company NTT has been looking at cyber attacks worldwide. Australia does not come out well!
“In Australia, three industries were targeted in 81 percent of all attacks observed: Finance with 34 percent of the total, retail with 27 percent, and business and professional services with 20 percent.
Over 93 percent of the malware detected within Australia during the 12-month period was some form of Trojan. Kaspersky Lab had highlighted previously that Australia has one of the highest rates of penetration — or attempted penetration — when it comes to mobile banking Trojans, with the country experiencing 1.42 percent of all infections recorded globally, second only to Russia.”
http://www.nttcomsecurity.com/uploads/documentdatabase/2017_GTIR_NTT_Security_04252017.pdf
Also —
Report from the Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC) published last week found that 90 percent of organisations in Australia claim to have faced some form of attempted or successful cybersecurity compromise during the 2015-16 financial year.
https://www.acsc.gov.au/publications/ACSC_Cyber_Security_Survey_2016.pdf
00
New York Times faces barrage of subscription cancelations because it published an article by a climate skeptic:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/30/media/new-york-times-climate-change/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom
00
The reaction of cancelling a subscription is simply childish. It says a lot more about the fragility of those cancelling, than it does about the newspaper, which seems to be: ‘Reporting on the events of the day, in a fearless and unbiased manner’, as their shareholders expect.
20
Bloomberg gets a scoop, a hamburger with Kim is on the table.
“If it would be appropriate for me to meet with him, I would absolutely, I would be honored to do it,” Trump said Monday in an Oval Office interview with Bloomberg News. “If it’s under the, again, under the right circumstances. But I would do that.”
00
Which bank is the most coal-friendly alternative to Westpac?
00
Is anyone interested in further research on this?
If you go to the BOM decadal temperatures, and look at Oodnadatta. Compare the earliest with the last statistics for maxima. Oodnadatta moves into a lower, ie cooler, band of three degrees. Simple, huh! But when you got the “Trends in Maximum Temperatures” it shows the purple of a 0.05 or 0.1 increase per decade, probably the latter. That means a whole degree up, yet down too. Mysterious!
The same with Mt Isa for minima, going down and up two degrees.
A broader study would question how with a one degree increase the three degree bands have not moved down a full third, both for maxima and minima, over the last century.
I apologize if others have already investigated this.
Roland
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From Cheifio
pearce m. schaudies says: 3 May 2017 at 4:45 am
(“Will says- #1 The scam\claim from Climate Clowns is that the lower temperature\radiance atmosphere transfers power flux to the Earth’s surface. This claim has never ever been demonstrated!”)
“1. From the Stefan–Boltzmann wiki …”
Thats enough! Wikipedia has been corrupted by Wm Connoly an any reference to Climate Change, to the proclaimed Religion. Back a while he did over 100 corrections in one month.
Wm is the inventor of his “both flux and radiance are the same thing”. Wrong! Radiance is the Thats enough! Wikipedia has been corrupted by Wm Connoly an any reference to Climate Change, to the proclaimed Religion. Back a while he did over 100 corrections in one month. Wm is the inventor of his “both flux and radiance are the same thing”. Wrong! Radiance is the electric field strength of only one object! Flux is the measurable transfer between two surfaces at different temperatures via EMR. In Boltzmann’s equation (never a law) has the two temperature terms (Ta^4-Tb^4) proportional to the difference in radiance between the two. That is the only flux ever measured. (your net net) as the term magnetic flux demands. Magnetic flux:
“The surface integral of the normal That surface component of the magnetic field B passing through that surface.”
(“Will says- #2 The Sun exhibits A near 6000 Kelvin spectrum at almost all wavelengths. “)
“2. Remember Wien approx to spectrum … it changes a bit.”
I did write near spectrum, even the Sun is never a blackbody. UV changes dramatically in the UV and nigher frequencies What we can measure that spectral radiance is near 6000 Kelvin. And is mich higher than Earth’s radiance at every frequency!! Total Solar radiance is 10^5 that of the Earth! The difference is negligible!
(“#3 the measurable flux is one way and “)
“3. The measurable flux seems (is) one way because measuring ‘net- net’.”
Yes indeed the only measurable thing. All the rest is fantasy and part of the scam!
“Let’s do a thought experiment.”
Why! Thought experiments are never an example of the physical! Why not a real physical experiment, one that has been repeated all over the the world and can demonstrate all that we ‘know’ about thermal EMR!
“That didnt hurt, did it?” NO. thought experiments are always ‘fantasy”.
(“Will says- #4 Very good for 2LTD! Can you please demonstrate any spontaneous thermal flux from conduction, convection, EMR flux, or anything else, that goes in a direction of higher potential? also always called UP?”)
“4. see 3 above.”
I guess that is a negative to “Can you please…”? Again can you, can you, please?
“The radiance (watts per square meter per steradian) is given by The energy of an individual photon is quantized and is greater for photons of higher frequency. This relationship is given by Planck’s equation E = hν, where E is the energy per photon, ν is the frequency of the photon, and h is Planck’s constant.”
And the spectral radiance is given by? Planck never wrote E = hν. Spectral radiance the E field at each frequency is the only thing Max actually wrote. Boltzmann actually demonstrated the resulting B field flux.
“A single gamma ray photon, for example, might carry ~100,000 times the energy of a single photon of visible light.”
Only if you think your photon physically exists! Planck’s constant (h) is a measure of action, in units of (joule-seconds) multiplying by ν = 299,792,458 meters per second per cm results in a (1/t) function. So each cycle appears as Joules to some Multiplying by frequency is totally different than dividing by time as t/ν is √t²= √…root( -299,792,458 meters)² an imaginary distance!
“In the case of fluxes, we have to take the integral, over a surface, of the flux through every element of the surface. The result of this operation is called the surface integral of the flux. It represents the quantity which passes through the surface.— James Clerk Maxwell”
Never ever J. Maxwell wrote:
“In the case of fluxes, we have to take the integral, over a surface, of the not flux, Instead (normal B field), through every element of the surface.”
Sounds like again from Wikipedia! A good place to find references to what was actually written.
” http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/07/06/06climatewire-a-climate-change-dissenter-who-has-left-his-76048.html?pagewanted=all ”
See some that disagree:
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/05/ny-times-furor-due-to-half-skeptic-mass-subscription-exodus-best-thing/#comment-1909948
“https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_transfer”
More wiki Gee thanks
All the best!-will-
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