Let’s get Australia out of the pointless Paris Agreement which will cost trillions, hurt the poor, send Australian manufacturing overseas, kill birds, bats, whales, raise electricity prices, and not change global temperatures by any measurable amount. This is a very well reasoned petition written by someone very familiar with the details of IPCC proceedings. It is an official petition, and alas, needs to be limited to Australian signatories.
Jo
_______________________________________________________________
An electronic petition for the House of Representatives requesting Australia pull out of the Paris Agreement.
EN0264
To the Hon. Speaker of the House of Representatives and Members of the House of Representatives
Certain citizens of Australia
(a) The damage and impairment to the Australian economy and the financial pain inflicted on our citizens and residents caused by inflated energy costs will be very significant and are very likely to be increased in future.
(b) Australian greenhouse gas emissions are insignificant and have no measurable influence on global average temperature, meaning that Australia’s involvement is merely a political gesture.
(c) The ratification of the Agreement seems to have ignored the following statements of IPCC’s Fifth Climate Assessment Report (5AR) of 2013:
(i) atmospheric carbon dioxide increased over the 15 years prior to the report,
(ii) there was no statistical certainty that average global temperature increased over that time and
(iii) 111 of 114 climate model runs predicted greater warming over that period than the temperature observations indicate. These statements undermine the notion of significant manmade warming and undermine the credibility of claims based on the output of climate models.
(d) The ratification appears to have ignored the detail of the Agreement, specifically “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”. The Agreement gives no indication of when “pre-industrial” refers to, no indication of how global average temperatures at that time were determined or of how the current average global temperature will be calculated for the purposes of the Agreement.
Australia to follow the lead of the USA and immediately withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.
NB: Closing date for signatures is Wednesday, 19 July 2017
_________________________
Background and explanatory notes
- Point (a) argues against Australian suffering rises in energy cost as a consequence of the Agreement and the likely increased suffering as the terms of the Paris Agreement are increased in future. (Even the UNFCCC admits that Paris was only a start.)
- Point (b) argues that Australia’s contribution to total greenhouse gases is negligible and we’d be making a lot of effort but achieving virtually nothing.
- Points in (c) are based on extracts from the 2013 IPCC Climate Assessment Report (5AR). The data on CO2 levels is from figure 2.1 (chapter 2, pg 167) and the other two points are from :
- “… the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to 0.15] °C per decade) …” [WG I SPM, page 5, section B.1, bullet point 3, and in full Synthesis Report on page SYR-6]
- “… an analysis of the full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (…) reveals that 111 out of 114 realisations show a GMST trend over 1998–2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble ….” [WGI contribution, chapter 9, text box 9.2, page 769, and in full Synthesis Report on page SYR-8]
In simpler words …
- According to statistical practices the trend in temperature from 1998 to 2012 (the 15 years prior to the report being drafted) falls somewhere between slight warming (0.15C/decade) and slight cooling (-0.05). In other words there is no certainty that any warming occurred.
- Despite claims of the accuracy of climate models most of the model runs (97%) predicted more warming from 1998 to 2012 than the temperature observations show.
- Point (d) is from Article 2 point 1(a) of the Agreement, which was downloaded from https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf (or use http://tinyurl.com/y75g5pqb ). The specific issues raised are:
- “Pre-industrial” is undefined. Google the term and you’ll find that some people say just before 1750 because it was prior to the major industrial period that started in that year, but others say 1850-1900 and a relatively recent scientific paper suggests that 1720-1800 should be used.
- How do we know what the global average temperature was back then (so that we will know when we’ve reached 1.5C or 2.0C)? The simple answer is that we don’t know. Only 37 temperature observation stations operated in 1800 with 34 of them in Europe which at the time was in the grip of the Little Ice Age. Climate models won’t reliably predict the temperatures back in time and proxies like trying to match tree-ring growth to temperature aren’t accurate because other factors might cause changes.
- The real problem that point (d) addresses is that it could be claimed tomorrow that the 1.5C point, or even the 2.0C point, had been reached and the world had to do more about emissions and compensation. Without having the basic data discussed above there would be no way to question the claim and any country that had committed to action under the Paris Climate Treaty would feel obliged to take further action regardless of the pain and suffering of its citizens.
4. Biographic Note
John McLean was the leading reviewer of the second draft of the scientific portion (i.e. the Working Group I portion) of the latest IPCC Climate Assessment Report (5AR). He read all chapters and made about 500 comments covering every chapter except the last. He is also the author of four peer-reviewed papers on climate and has been cited in several recent books on the climate debate for his detailed analysis and criticisms of the IPCC.
Get to and sign the petition. Trump started the move towards Climate Sanity and if Australia can now follow suit it will be a massive step forwards.
Best wishes for its success.
I can’t sign it but we need to replicate this petition in the UK.
(2 degrees C warmer than the depths of the LIA ain’t very warm!)
343
Dang. If only the trans-Tasman agreement could include petitions. This one needs to be forcibly rammed down the throat of every self-interested MP, weighed down by the the sheer mass of signatures for sanity. Good luck Australia. Similar things will happen over the ditch.
170
Frustrating, isn’t it?
But I think you’re right. Our not so tame cretins signed us up to Paris,
so similar things will happen here and not so eventually.
70
First of all a petition to Reid ourselves of Turnbull, the Lefty Marxist who dragged us into this mess.
50
I jumped in from the last post before this and signed it. Come on, all Aussie Jo Nova posters, click the link and do the deed. We could blow this whole thing apart. Great initiative, thank you John McLean.
232
Done.
132
Done also .
112
I jumped in on the last post, too.
Jo,
Do please keep this post in a prominent position until 19th July.
122
Done. I have forwarded the link to others.
101
Done
60
Yes, I signed it, and and my husband too.
Thank you Joanne and John McLean !!
50
I notice the Petition was initiated by a “John McLean”.
Is this the same John McLean who no longer claims to have a PhD – although he used to – and who claimed that 2014 was going to be the coldest year in 65 years? (Turned out it was the warmest on record).
I’d say our parliament would be well advised to ignore such an unreliable source of “facts”…
955
Craig,
Regarding the material in this post, what facts are wrong?
352
(a) is obviously a national sovereignty issue caused by our governments selling off our infrastructure to foreign companies and allowing our gas reserves to shipped off dirt cheap to foreign buyers.
(b) is a very well known logical fallacy.
(c) is an out-dated cherry-pick, since superseded by current data. Current temperatures are above the mean of the model runs
(d) is a false assertion. The IPCC clearly refers to 1850-1900 as their “historical baseline”. This is obviously a very conservative baseline. Anybody who doesn’t understand an IPCC report could always ask a scientist to explain it to them.
33
No this John McLean is not the same John McLean, but another John McLean with the same name.
Do try to keep up, Craig.
402
Don’t tell us, Craig, tell your parliament. While you’re at it, ensure they are fully aware of your own reliability.’
I’m sure every regular here will be prepared to vouch for your reputation … as best they can. 🙂
So go and exercise your democratic rights.
171
Actually, in looking at the petition itself, I can find no reference to a certain “John McLean”.
Would you like to indicate where it states that a certain John McLean was the initiator of record?
150
Rereke, when you sign the petition it takes you to another place where all the current petitions are listed with their petitioner’s name. His name is there, against this one.
100
Ah! Now I understand. I am not permitted to go beyond pressing my nose against the glass.
But Craig’s comment implies that he must have signed the petition himself, in order to see that John McLean was the petitioner.
How delightfully droll?
191
Indeed!
100
As they say on the Sopranos, RW, “You’re so fast that if there are any flies on you they’re paying rent!”
130
Thanks, Eddy.
I hope you are keeping well?
60
Yipikaye
100
Done
90
Craig,
Don’t sign it then, loser…
93
Are those black horns I see sticking out of your head or was the pic taken on a bad hair day?
70
James does a pretty good Kim Jong Un impersonation, when you think about it.
(Sorry James – I couldn’t resist)
50
Craig,
You don’t seem to care about facts and whether claims are true or not.
Years ago someone did post my name saying that I was Dr John McLean (It might have been Marc Morano). As soon as I saw it I got in contact with him to say that it wasn’t correct and he made the correction. So it was NOT me making claims at all.
As for predictions about 2014 (which is now years ago), I might have made that prediction or someone made it based on my work. I frankly don’t care which. The point is that scientists make (or at least should make) predictions and test their hyptheses all the time.
And on the subject of testing, are you aware that 111 or 114 climate model runs predicted greater warming during 1998 to 2012 than was revealed by the temperature observations. Who says so? Only the IPCC 5AR in text box 9.2 (or maybe the WGI or maybe both). Talk about failed predictions!
393
2012 was a while ago.
Was 2015 on the mean of the climate model runs?
Was 2016 above the mean of the climate model runs?
Have you just discovered variability?
Where’s the global cooling that your “work” was promising us?
32
Craig Thomas back again and at his pompous best.
141
Sure sign of a Arts semi-graduate. They KNOW everything…
… but they have an Arts level comprehension of maths, science an engineering.
oops !!!
162
I recall when at Uni, seeing written above the loo rolls at the loos in the Mech Eng building : “Arts Degree, please take one”…..
120
I don’t know which uni you attended but I saw that written above a toilet roll dispenser in the Mech Eng building at Strathclyde in the early 80s 🙂
90
An area of a particular mine (in Oz) was known as Death Valley.
One of the graffiti items was:
“Here in Death Valley, apathy is at fever pitch”.
80
or Huamanities……
30
Is that John McLean of Die Hard 1 or 2 or 3 or what? Or perhaps it’s Don McLean? Is this a petition to reword (slightly) American Pie. Will it now be “Bye, bye Miss Climate Pie / Drove my Carcass to Paris but Paris was dry /No sea-level rise – oh why? / And them good ole climate boys were drinking whiskey and rye / Singin’ this’ll be the day that I Lie…again and again and again…”
130
Just my era
A different Peter
50
Yippy ki yay…..
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The Die Hard character played by Bruce Willis is John McClane, so all the John McLeans are safe…
50
Al Gore is an American Pile (take “pile” to mean whatever suits the occasion and the company).
70
Maybe ‘Pile’ could mean a ‘mountain of virtue’ ……that travels via S bend on the Al Gore express.
Instead of a Steam Whistle at ‘All Aboard’, just a Flushing sound is heard !!
30
Are you the same Craig Thomas who used to come here, spout rubbish and then disappear in a cloud of nonsense?
233
Ah, were you worried I was stepping on your turf?
Never fear, it turns out you have nothing to worry about:
https://phys.org/news/2017-01-earth-global-temperature.html
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png
44
Is this the Craig Thomas who claims to be anything but a nil-educated, mindless troll ?
134
Craig 1998 was 0.3 °C warmer than 2014.
141
” it was the warmest on record”
That’s one of the “alternative facts” used frequently by warmistas. In fact, 1998 was the warmest in recent years. It was only narrowly beaten by 2016 because of enthusiastic rewriting of the historic climate record.
111
Craig,
Will you and your tribe of peanuts try to get some consensus as to what was the hottest year EVVVVAAAAHHHHHH.
1948 for Western NSW.
1919 for Great Sandy Desert.
1936 for Colorado.
etc
etc
An old penguin told me it was very hot at Mawson base in 1933.
Please make your minds up.
111
World media rushed to report that “2014 was the warmest year on record”, but it seems no one bothered to look at the fine print and the fact scientists can’t be sure the claim is true, writes Samantha Walker.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-13/walker-was-2014-the-hottest-year-after-all/6091110
71
Being from the Great State of Washington, USA, I can’t sign.
But I wanted to.
Then, Craig, in comment #3, claims the author of the petition is an unreliable dude.
So now Craig is going to fill in the details of what is wrong with the material in this post/petition so all can marvel at the seriousness of his commitment to truth and justice. Thanks Craig.
151
Craig is just trolling. He does not understand the Paris Agreement and what it means. The Paris agreement is why we are paying at least 4x as much for power as we should, often 10x. Craig is part of the problem and the group think trying to turn Australia into Venezuela.
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And unfortunately not doing too bad a job of it either.
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Strangely, our energy price increases went into overdrive about 6 months after Tony Abbott got into power, cancelled the Carbon Tax and canned various renewable energy promotions.
…or maybe I wrongly assumed that your comment had something to do with Planet Earth?
41
Climate models are poor predictors of climate variables:
Temperature reality http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/itlt_60_0-360E_-90-90N_n_2000:2020.png
Temperature modelled http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icmip5_tas_Amon_modmean_rcp60_0-360E_-90-90N_n_+++_2000:2020_a.png
Precipitation reality http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/igpcp_23_0-360E_-90-90N_n_a.png
Precipitation modelled http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icmip5_pr_Amon_modmean_rcp85_0-360E_-90-90N_n_+++_1980:2020_a.png
Reality moves up and down around an average while climate models have ever increasing temperature and precipitation. The dip in the CMIP5 precipitation was not predicted by the CMIP3 modelling so is a fiddle in the CMIP5 to get history right:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ipr_cccma_cgcm3_1_20c3m_0-360E_-90-90N_n_++_1980:2020_a.png
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Done. I guess this is the list they will use to round us all up 🙂
130
I done it too. But will it have any leverage.
60
Done.
Now waiting for the knock on the door at midnight.
61
Signed. The thought police will be here in 48 hours. (It’s the weekend.)
50
Done.
Now waiting for the knock on the door at midnight.
60
Why do my posts always appear as duplicates??????
30
?????? What happened this time? No duplicate!
31
It’s random. It was your turn!
40
Over intuiting patterns in stuff, mebbe?
Serfs are prone ter this. Sometimes, (often)
hafta’ take a step back…
‘William’ of Baskerville, (Sean Connelly in
‘Name of the Rose’) didn’t do this. 🙂
30
Is that you William?
20
Depends which William you are asking Glen! My posts always come up with the same picture – handsome devil I must say! That said, I haven’t posted here for a little while.
10
Oh, my picture has changed – Balmoral Beach will now differentiate me from the other William!
10
My avatar was selected by Joe to reflect my obvious erudition and superior contributions to the discussions.
Also it looks cool.
10
You will be safe until they knock three times.
30
Jo sent me…
40
So long as it is not twice on the pipe…….!
10
Signed and shared on Facebook.
60
“Shared on Facebook”
Well done Cameron. I hope it gets a good response.
Do people on Facebook know about the Paris agreement?
30
Wish I could sign but I am a Kiwi and they most likely wont allow it. Darn Hope it is going to rub here in Kiwiland. Cheers and all the best to all of you in Aussieland
30
I just signed the petition I am No 481 on the list, but what a paraphernalia to get it done.
GeoffW
80
Yes. A bit of a rigmarole. But worth the effort.
The numbers are growing. I was about No 26.
Keep the ball rolling!
60
I was about 787.
Doug
40
Done I
60
Signed up BUT <500 signatures will have no chance of influencing the Gov't.
40
Early days, I think.
70
As Peter said, it’s early days yet.
Now, get out there and put the word around, get friends, family, pets, and strangers, all you can convince, to sign it.
Help it grow.
50
Signed.
61
It doesn’t work for me. Maybe anyone north of the 18th parallel is deemed to be no longer in Australia?
Any hints?
50
Check whether you have various blocking enabled in your browser such as Adblock, Ghostery, Java scripts and any other security options that have list of approved sites (for example).
50
Nope. I googled parliamentary petitions and that worked. There are now 560 signatures.
50
It worked for me with AdBlock.
Although, why the Government would have advertising is a little worrying . .
10
Signed
40
Thanks to those who have signed. Spreading the word to friends and contacts would be much appreciated.
It only opened for signatures on Wednesday afternoon this week, just two days ago, and it’s open for four weeks. Right now I feel like I’m getting a snowball rolling and hoping it keeps rolling and keeps growing.
Yes, signing is a bit convoluted but it needs to try to ensure that the signers are Australian and that valid email addresses have been given. Paper copies of petitions don’t have these checks but at least the person who signed the petition was in the country at the time.
Thanks again for your support.
John McLean
90
Thanks for setting it up John.
It’s an approach I’d not thought of.
Cheers,
Dave B
50
Hi John,
I can sign, however the CONFIRM BUTTON is greyed out and I am unable to click on it…………
20
I have signed it and did so with great pleasure. Let’s hope it gains enough traction.
10
Confirmed No.579. Multiply that by 100,! Good stuff John.
50
Now 611
60
Wish I could sign.
How many signatures are you looking for?
50
All of them!
60
When politicians fail to show spine,
It’s up to the public to sign,
A petition to cede,
From what Paris agreed,
As Australians won’t toe the line.
130
I would sign it in a minute if I could. I hope it works for you. Two major nations thumbing their noses at Paris would add a lot of additional incentive for the rest to think.
60
Petition signed. However, what is meant to happen next? After my signature we were up to 657. Do we need a certain number for the government to take notice?
Based on the way the Turnbull government ( it’s not the Liberal government) is implementing policy it couldn’t give a stuff about what Australians think. Unless there are some legal rules about compelling governments to do something I would suspect that the petition will be ignored no matter how many signatures we get on it. I hope I’m wrong because unless this government reversed its tack on energy policy and the Paris agreement it will be even worse under the next government.
80
There may be sufficient numbers now to elicit a response from a minister. That should the PM, given the subject of the petition. I expect a polite reply unless the signatories get above 10,000. I do not think that will happen.
None the less it is keeping some pressure on our government.
30
Done
50
Up to 690 now
50
Just signed Jo
40
Now at 694 after my signature. I thought there were more jonovians than that.
50
709
50
Signed
Hope it does more good than my letters to State and Federal politicians about the ridiculous Lady Elliot Island sea level rise sign.
30
60
Tried to sign but just a greyed-out web site appeared with no search facility. What am I doing wrong?
20
Use the LINK on this page under the heading “petition request”.
This will take you to the page on the government site.
Just scroll down to the form and follow the instructions.
You must be in Australia to do it.
40
Hi and thanks to you all for advice on a convoluted procedure. Signed and over 900 signatures as of a few moments ago.
20
Make that 941 and as suggested look for the number of signatures under “current petitions”.
10
I had a similar issue with IE11.
The site worked on Firefox.
See #18.1 above for further work-arounds/
20
Signed.
40
Anyone know how to find the numbers who’ve signed? I can’t find the info on that.
20
http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Petitions/House_of_Representatives_Petitions/Petitions_General/Petitions_List#next
2349hrs 24 June number is 878. Needs a lot more support to get attention.
40
Thanks Rick. The way I searched didn’t give the numbers. Looking under ‘current’ petitions did.
30
946 at 1058 EST.
20
976 at 1500 EST.
10
Im an australian currently abroad but have addresses in australia and it worked
40
Small problem. My wife and I have the same email so when she “signed” she was told that she had already “signed”. I will have to find another email account.
20
Over 1,000 signatures now.
Might be worth updating this post and putting it at the top of the welcome page again.
00
Definetly agree
00