Excellent news. Obviously we are getting to the BoM.
This week, Jen Marohasy and I were mentioned by Maurice Newman in The Australian.“Smoking Gun demands Grilling for the BoM”. In response, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has unleashed a double dummy-popping effort in The Guardian.
The BoM could have answered the questions in The Australian, of course, but it’s so much easier to whine, bluster, raise the conspiracy flag and avoid the questions that matter at the-ask-no-hard-questions-Guardian.
Bureau of Meteorology attacks pushed by ‘fever swamp’ of climate denial
Graham Readfearn
Former weather bureau chief says agency debilitated by climate deniers’ attacks
Michael Slezak
It really is an extraordinary rant as the former head of the BoM admits skeptics are “debilitating” the BoM with these “attacks”. The Guardian is so starved of real news, it runs the one-sided name-calling excuses and another separate story discusses it as if it was actually news. While The Australian asks the BoM for a reply and would publish it, The Guardian didn’t ask a skeptic. One of these newspapers acts like a newspaper…
How debilitating are we skeptics? Jennifer Marohasy tells me she sent the BoM questions in 2015, but hasn’t heard back yet. It doesn’t take much to debilitate the million-dollar-a-day agency. Ask a few questions and cripple them for years…
Obviously, the BoM have stopped trying to answer Marohasy, but now they also say they won’t answer our national masthead newspaper either. That’s another scandal to add to the list.
Maybe Rob Vertussy is still hurting from the time I said that Maurice Newman knew more about climate models than he did.
Vertessy spent a decade at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. He retired in April 2016 after five years as the agency’s director.
Over that time, Vertessy’s agency was under consistent attack from climate science denialists who would claim, often through the news and opinion pages of the Australian, that the weather bureau was deliberately manipulating its climate records to make recent warming seem worse than it really was.
When the Bureau makes mistakes, this is how it thanks the volunteers who want to improve the national data:
Vertessy said these sorts of attacks were dangerous. “From my perspective, people like this, running interference on the national weather agency, are unproductive and it’s actually dangerous,” Vertessy told me. “Every minute a BoM executive spends on this nonsense is a minute lost to managing risk and protecting the community. It is a real problem.”
It’s all a wicked conspiracy:
Now, the agency is under another wave of attack through the pages of the Rupert Murdoch-owned broadsheet, which is publishing claims made by Jennifer Marohasy, of the “free market” conservative thinktank the Institute of Public Affairs.
The recent spate of trouble for the BoM started when Lance Pidgeon and Jen Marohasy caught the BoM artificially clipping the coldest temperatures from Goulburn and Thredbo. The BoM then took weeks to do an internal review and finally answer that it was — through incredible coincidence — only these two stations, and it didn’t matter (even though it had been going on for years). The BoM admitted the hardware was clipping temps at minus 10.4, but still hasn’t explained why that was then altered to minus ten, which made the original “accidental” clipping problem worse. Maurice Newman not only mentioned this issue, but also discussed the far more serious matters of data being deliberately deleted and one-second-noise was being written into our record books. These are radioactive hot potatoes that the BoM won’t even touch:
Science writer and blogger Joanne Nova has raised scandal after scandal concerning the BOM’s record-keeping.
She refers to historic data being destroyed, and the influence of adjustments on Australia’s warming trend. She reports private auditors advising the bureau of almost a “thousand days where minimum temperatures were higher than the maxes”.
When Australia’s bureau transitioned from mercury thermometers to electronic sensors more than 20 years ago, to ensure readings from these devices were comparable with the old thermometers and complied with World Meteorological Organisation guidelines, parallel studies were undertaken at multiple sites….
A key conclusion was that readings from the new electronic sensors needed to be averaged over one to 10 minutes. However, rather than implement practices consistent with their finding, the bureau records one-second extremes (or noise), which can be announced as new record highs
Vertussy answers these criticisms of missing data, inexplicable adjustments, using sub-standard noise, and terrible quality-control with nothing but hand-waving bluster. Essentially: don’t be mean, how dare you ask! We’re Experts and you are lowly scum.
So when a shock jock or a thinktank employee claims the bureau is trying to cook the books, how should the public react?
What needs to be front of mind, Vertessy says, is that there is “virtually complete consensus on the extent to which the planet has warmed and why, since the beginning of the industrial revolution”.
“The facts are just unequivocal because they have been replicated so many times, by so many teams, using multiple independent methods.”
He says if the bureau “was really making a hash of managing its climate data” then it would be documented in scientific “journals and at symposia” but “that’s clearly not happening”.
He says it “beggars belief” that these commentators “actually profess to know better”.
Obviously, if he hadn’t deleted all the data he wouldn’t need to over-react.
Vertussy continues spinning wild claims and dodging the real questions:
“Time and time again there has been one independent review by experts after another, all telling the same story. The simple, unimpeachable facts are that the BoM is doing an exemplary job at managing the nation’s climate data and multiple independent reviews have confirmed that and we are recognised by our World Meteorological Organisation peers as being amongst the best in the world; that keeps being restated and restated.
“I think the Australian play on very dangerous ground here,” he says, adding that some editors at the newspaper were guilty of “perpetuating nonsense”.
The truth is the BOM will do anything they can to avoid any independent review. Vertussy only provides one example of a so-called independent review, but that one day wonder used hand-picked people who avoided looking at the points the skeptics raised. It wasn’t independent, and it isn’t relevant, and there are no better examples because there are no independent reviews. The Guardian swallows these fantasy answers 100%. What’s the difference between The Guardian and a PR agency? A PR guys are more honest. They don’t pretend to be journalists.
Graham Readfearn launches into full strawman agitprop:
The current non-story centres on two of the bureau’s 695 automatic weather stations (AWS). As temperatures reached -10.4C in Thredbo and Goulburn in July, a hardware card in the AWS stopped working. This event, detected by the bureau, kick-started several internal quality control processes.
The bureau found four other hardware cards in areas where things can get chilly and replaced them. The cards should not have been used, as they could become faulty at low temperatures.
That’s essentially it.
“No. That’s essentially lying by omission” says Jo Nova. The Guardian is hiding all the real problems from their readers.
Here come the conspiracy theories again:
But the Australian and the IPA and the network of climate science denial blogs have once again screamed scandal.
What network? Our secret networks are called “bigpond” and “gmail”.
Vertussy even resorts to vague threats:
“But, as the costs of climate change accumulate in the years ahead, I can see that leaders of this climate change denial movement will really be seen as culpable.”
Culpable indeed. As volunteer amateurs we are only guilty of asking questions the BoM doesn’t want to answer.
Graham Lloyd, and The Australian deserve great praise. If they didn’t ask the hard questions and report both sides of the story, who would?
UPDATE: See Jennifer Marohasy’s question for the BOM below from 2015 that they won’t reply too.
_____________________________________
THE BOM LIST grows — Scandal after scandal
- BOM Scandal: One second records in Australia — how “noise” creates history and a warming trend
- Another BOM scandal: Australian climate data is being destroyed as routine practice
- BOM scandal: “smart cards” filter out coldest temperatures. Full audit needed ASAP!
- BOM scandal heats up: Kininmonth, Watts, Nova quoted in The Australian “We audit banks, why not BOM?”
- Scandal: Australian Bureau of Meteorology caught erasing cold temperatures
- On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was “adjusted”).
- Two-thirds of Australias warming due to “adjustments” — according to 84 historic stations
- The mysterious BOM disinterest in hot historic Australian Stevenson screen temperatures
- The lost climate knowledge of Deacon 1952: hot dry summers from 1880-1910
- 1953 Headline: Melbourne’s weather is changing! Summers getting colder and wetter
- The mysterious lost hot Sunday in Bourke, did it really happen?
- Wow, look at those BOM adjustments – trends up by two degrees C!
- Australian BOM “neutral” adjustments increase minima trends up 50%
- Was the Hottest Day Ever in Australia not in a desert, but in far south Albany?!
- Hottest summer record in Australia? Not so, says UAH satellite data
- Mystery black-box method used to make *all new* Australian “hottest” ever records
- BOMs new data set, ACORN, so bad it should be withdrawn (954 min temps larger than the max!)
- Threat of ANAO Audit means Australia’s BOM throws out temperature set, starts again, gets same results
- Australian Temperatures in cities adjusted up by 70%!?
- NEW (this post) The BOM calls critics names, wails, and says it won’t answer questions from The Australian any longer.
My personal favorite is the prediction of below average rainfall for the place in the Pilbara that gets no rain this time of year , meaning you can have less than zero rain .
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Well if the BOM can suck intelligence out of basic science rainfall will be a doddle.
52
Averages and anomalies seem a mite meaningless for sites such as this.
I downloaded the BOM’s rainfall records for the Mandora site and note:
Total days of records: 38250
Days with 0 rainfall: 32310 (84%)
Days missing data: 3558 (9%)
Highest rainfall: 281.4mm (6th March 2000)
ANY rain at this site could be considered an outlier.
72
The power is about to go off in SA and Victoria this summer and the BoM are worried about their reputation. Amazing.
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Also their electronic thermometers won’t work properly potentially damaging the data sets that will give false averages…….ummm forget that, carry on.
41
But only 2 of them are faulty.
20
Talking of rainfall anomalies in the desert, a regional cooling signal?
‘Parts of the nation’s interior could receive more than 50mm of rain during the next four days, which would exceed the long-term average spring rainfall in the desert region.
‘Oodnadatta usually receives 36mm of rain between the start of September and the end of November. The outback town could receive this entire amount by Sunday.’
Weatherzone
00
Ever the way of the Left. Caught out, they fight even harder to maintain their lies. Even children realise that when they are caught out lying, they have to accept the consequences. The Left doesn’t even have the self-respect a child has.
392
Okay so their equipment now measures 1 second intervals and it probably records errant hot blasts… well guess what… they have painted all their corners and can’t get out, because unless global temps are actually increasing exponentially there is a limit to the difference errant anomalies will make to the BOM hottest evvvaaa records.
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Given today’s temperatures (absolutely lovely after the recent horrid cold) this Spring will undoubtedly be the hottest on record. The BOM has no idea how much I look forward to heat.
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Too right! It got to be 27.5 C here for at least a second.Such luxury basking in that little capture of time. You wouldn’t believe it stayed on 25.67777777 for the rest of the day until the sun set back in the East. All over until tomorrow , which promises better. Try and tell BoM that and they won’t believe you.
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James, the one second reading problem applies to both maxima and minima. And it just so happens that lately the minima have been outweighing the maxima. Our local paper told us that July was the hottest on record. (Starting 1991). But it was surely also the coldest on that record. The average max was 1.6 degrees above average, while the average min was 3.6 below average.
I don’t know when it started, but it has been noticeable for some time that the recorded maxima and minima have at times been substantially outside the range shown by the ten minute records. One second extremes explains this. And it is obviously not satisfactory.
It is interesting to have these comments coming from Rob Vertessy after he has retired from the director’s job. It was only a perception, but I did get the impression that the BOM management were embarrassed by the Goulburn/Thredbo issue, as if they had discovered a problem that the old management should not have allowed to happen. A change of management could explain that. Could we see an improvement with the new boss? A self audit might bring a very different result to what it would have a year or two ago.
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Ted,
Agreed, it is not satisfactory, but my point is that BOM have used variations of this method to artificially increase official temperature records for the last 30 years probably.
Now there comes a point where the maxima limits are reached and if over warming the past has helped BOM highlight ‘global warming’ then they can’t back track from this stance when even the most minor decreases in minima will look like a devastating ‘global cooling’ event in the future because of their hyped warming records.
What goes up must come down.
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Good comment James. What goes up must come down. Hmmmm in a rational world yes. That very seldom happens with government spending. Perhaps with their political/bureaucratic experience in budgeting they can just let the fake, made up, doctored, etc. temperature increase forever.
I love this quote from Vertussy.
“The facts are just unequivocal because they have been replicated so many times, by so many teams, using multiple independent methods.”
The only place I know where you can get the same sort of consensus is by going to a prison and asking the prisoners if they are innocent. Each prisoner, like each warmunist, will claim his innocence as long as you have the strength to listen.
Every year is the same. We hear this is the “hottest year evah!! And, I am innocent, I was framed!”
Same morals, same lies.
92
It’s bureaucracy rather than the Left. What’s pathetic is that if this was a business or a bureaucracy on the wrong side of a Leftist issue, the Left would be up in arms demanding answers and reviews and changes.
The Left despite its look-at-me virtue-signalling has no interest in facts or truth, only in its own “truth”.
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Possibly a bit of both. The standard bureaucratic claim that they know everything and the critics don’t know anything about the practices, but with an admixture of leftist warming belief. The latter can almost be guaranteed by the self selection of those choosing to be employed there, and the ‘brainwashing’ once they are inside.
I think Ted O’brien’s comment at 2.1.2 has come close to the mark. A gradual move away from Vertessy’s approach might be underway and his vitriol is him defending his legacy.
61
Typical pathetic Left- as soon as they can’t wriggle out of it, they start playing the VICTIM card… the Left love it….makes them look like they are being picked on….it’s the refuge of c******rds….
The best way to destroy a nest of cockies is unrelenting cockie countermeasures…..,
A constant blowtorch is needed, and never, ever let up.
After all, all were asking for is transparency and honesty…..scientists should be happy to hand over their data and findings to have it examined….
232
How sad! Those mean, questioning science enthusiasts kicking sand in the faces of those poor government lampreys. Poor BAYBEEEZ!!
70
The disturbing images of cockie’s and blowtorches aside, the fact that people that behave like petulant children managed to gain positions of influence over any aspect of a rational society should be a wake up call for the grown ups in the nation.
40
Hmmm…actually, it wasnt intended to link cochroaches and blowtorches together , rather the blowtorch comnent was a metaphor for applying intense heat/ exposure to the greenist lies….
Note to self, be more thorough when commenting….
30
Bemused alleged:
The …ah …ex? … officer of the BOM who has now arrived in Low Earth Orbit, isn’t a Leftist except in the sense of “Left Right Out.” I’ve seen headless chooks with a better sense of direction than that exercised by the ‘ex-head.’
[from the Guardian Article.]
Goodness me! I didn’t realise fending off the wild and voracious hordes of man-eating lemmings all trying to tell you about your organisation’s stupid mistakes and errors, was such a difficult, time-consuming and dangerous job. “Minutes of the day?” Managing “risk?” What? Correcting errors is “managing risk?” This, from someone responsible for running the organisation? Perhaps emerging from the bottle-du-jour must have been a real imposition, and very risky. He actually had to do the job for which he was paid.
But it doesn’t answer the question: Where was the Quality Control? Missing in Action? That was Vertessy’s responsibility.
And the responsible Minister needs sacking. Where was the Ministerial oversight
The cult of blaming others, the deflection and the rejection of accepting responsibility for errors and mistakes, is, unfortunately, a well known defect of third rate leaders, those who should never have been given such responsibility. Vertessy stands convicted from out of his own mouth.
No, Bemused, I disagree with your observation of Vertessy’s outburst being “Ever the way of the Left.” It’s the way of the incompetent, Lack of ability to lead spans the whole political spectrum, and is never unique to a particular persuasion. It may be tempting to assert that perhaps the Left hires more incompetents than anyone else but I suggest that’s not so.
If that shrill and and hysterical polemic is the quality of communication and thought exercised by one who once held the overall responsibility of being in charge of what now appears to be the kiddies in the sand-pit, then Marohasy and Nova are tilling fertile ground, the Australian Taxpayer is not getting value for tax paid and the responsible Minister is not doing his duty. Let’s put the blame squarely where it should be, rather than slinging prejudices.
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Vertessy is a perfect example of “The Peter Principle” in action. Some of his predecessors probably were, too.
31
The BOM is one arm of The Church of Anthropogenic Global Warming (The Church). The leaders and disciples of The Church within the BOM follow the rituals and commends of The Church.
The belief in The Church and its decrees is fundamental to how things are practised and managed.
This has nothing to do with the Peter Principle, these actions/inactions and deceits are all at the command of The Church and followed rigorously.
60
I understand the Church of Anthropogenic Global Warming, and the BoM’s apparent membership of it, and I am not unsympathetic with your PoV, but I disagree that it has “… nothing to do with the Peter Principle.”
It has everything to do with it. Vertessy spent ten years at the BoM, the last five as it’s director, so he was promoted from within, beyond his level of competence and is a clear example of the Peter Principle in action.
Education and qualifications don’t necessarily matter. Management at any level requires diverse abilities to organise and motivate people, to lead them. His outburst to the Guardian is one which, in my experience, is a strong warning signal of the “Danger: incompetence!” type and is one of personal cowardice, because … it’s all somebody else’s fault … and he’s rejecting the responsibility which he should have accepted, and was paid to take. We sometimes call that “juvenile” as it is a common form of misdirection among children seeking to avoid punishment.
“there is an organised climate denial network … it’s been well documented.” (Really? Where?) and “had to deal with a barrage of criticism led by the rightwing thinktank the Institute for Public Affairs” are of the type of misdirections and exaggerations these incompetents use to justify and excuse themselves. (I bet Jen would be pleased her questions and enquiries have been inflated into `a barrage’ from `a whole Institute.’ She’s been noticed.)
I have seen and experienced exactly those sorts of behaviours and listened to similar philippics in a few of my past jobs, from people who should have known better than to try avoiding their clear responsibility and to excuse themselves. Working for that sort of manager is never pleasant when things go wrong. Blame gets thrown around instead of planning how deal with and prevent the trouble. The big problem with that approach is that when things do go wrong, they keep going wrong, and the staff end up running around fighting fires instead of being productive.
Vertessy being a member of the Church of AGW, while unfortunate, is actually irrelevant.
(Aside 1: hey Jen, you’re a Whole Institute bugging the new BoM director! Go girl! 🙂 )
(Aside 2: can anyone point me to all the documentation about this “organised climate denial network”? If it’s so well documented it should be easy to find … but …)
21
Vertussy is a bureaucrat, then an activist then whatever comes next.
262
A spin doctor?
80
What CV did he bring to the BOM?
60
Then a useful idiot/gulag occupant/fertiliser.
10
What scares some of us here in NZ is that it was the BOM that acted as the independent reviewer of NZ’s temperature record.
But what did they really review and how well did they do the review?
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/docs/bom-peer-review-ltr-on-niwa-7ss.pdf
Dear reader, we in NZ do not know; we are not allowed to know, under orders from our Chief Ombudsman.
http://www.ombudsman.parliament.nz/system/paperclip/document_files/document_files/1447/original/304458_request_for_information_relating_to_bureau_of_meteorology_of_australia_peer-review_of_national_institute_of_water_and_atmospheric_research_report_on__seven-station_temperature_series_.pdf?1461023124
281
“Climate Models” got a mention again.
What has the BOM got to do with Climate Models?
The so called models are not and never can be real. There is no basic mechanism underlying the models and that means they are a gigantic fudge.
Inputting data into a giant computer won’t help.
The BOM fails statistics and must be investigated.
Data collection, recording and processing are not right and yet this is their core designated task.
What’s going on.
KK
291
As Prime Minister Abbott recommended to his Cabinet – an independent audit, due diligence at BoM
193
An independent audit may require a red team, composed of skeptics, to go in first.
151
It’s been done… remember the Chinese hack. They’re still buying Australia farms 🙂
71
Apparently BoM was the soft underbelly.
31
I checked a while ago, less than 12 per cent of Australia’s farmlands is in foreign ownership, the UK and the US are the top two foreign investment countries here, Singapore is in 6th position and China 7th.
61
That ownership statistic is misleading; it is the monetary value and strategic value of the ownership which counts. Apply those 2 criteria and see what you get.
100
Those klimate ‘models’ (lies to prop up a failed theory) they came from the IPCC written by the globalist klimate scamsters who want to push civilization back to the stone age.
80
Actually, the Klimate Models were developed to support and prove an opinion which is not a theory and barely an hypothesis.
But the opinion resulted in the IPCC being tasked to prove it. So far, their models and the reams of reports they’ve written, haven’t.
Nature resolutely fails to follow the IPCC and the models’ prescriptions.
Wot a surprise.
50
Television news tonight (Saturday) hottest day ever for September.
The global warming propaganda ramped up.
The Australian exposure of the [snip] opposed.
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My comment is in moderation – ridiculous
[Learn to not use the F word. And I’m not talking about swearing. – Jo]
63
So ridiculous that I am retiring from commenting this evening.
44
Don’t worry
I just commented on the same subject “Hottest ever day in Melbourne” and it’s been put into moderation too!
Jo & the Moderators do a good job overall!
71
Dennis,
It’s automatic, while you used the 5 letter F word in a general sense not referring to a person, if you had used it in a specific sense and referred to a person, then that might constitute slander. Therefore the moderation filter holds those comments to be checked by the Moderators for possible slanderous remarks.
120
God please tell us non-natives. Fwhat? Fagot? Finch? Fists? Fader?
(darn)
33
I’m not annoyed with the moderators, just frustrated when a post goes into moderation and I was not aware why it was.
33
Not fraµđ but it could be —
barratry, bamboozlement, bluster, braggadocio, bragging, bravado, cheat, chicane, chicanery, con, cosmetic facade, craft, deceit, deception, delusion, double-dealing, dupery, duplicity, duping, extortion, fake, flimflam, false artifice, false colors, false front, feint, front, fast one, fast shuffle, fourberie, graft, guile, hanky-panky, hocus-pocus, hustle, hoodwinking, hoax, humbug, imposture, jiving, misrepresentation, pretense, pretext, racket, ruse, scam, sham, shakedown, sharp practice, show, snow, stall, subterfuge, song and dance, swindling, surreptitiousness, skunk, smoke, spuriousness, sting, string, subterfuge, swindle, treachery, trick, or underhandedness.
Maybe all of them?
[Mods please remove the ones that cause offense.]
80
Fahrenheit?
30
Very old fashioned and reminiscent of Empire.
40
More scientific nonsense in the Grauniad. Fortunately, Jo and Jennifer are not to blame. It’s all the fault of people like me (old, white, male, retired) – but there is no sexism, racism or agism intended:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/22/guardian-climate-denial-is-the-fault-of-old-white-people/
141
Maybe we are in denial because we weren’t brain washed in school and remember hot summers and cold winters along with droughts and floods , we just saw it as the different seasons but now it’s taught as CAGW .
And much like the MSM the warmists won’t let truth get in the way of a cheque book .
211
Yet another point in favour of old white males. One shouldn’t be immodest, but we really are a princely lot. Every time I check my privilege I just glow with pride.
Of course, there are still those silly old white duffers who read the Guardian, the perpetually concerned. I didn’t say we were perfect.
161
The cry of the left is never trust anyone under the age of 30…..mainly because old age= wisdom ( usually) and younger people trusting younger people is often the blind leading the blind…..
Funnily enough, the Biblical model is old wise guys guiding the younger ones….
81
“But, as the costs of climate change accumulate in the years ahead, I can see that leaders of this climate change denial movement will really be seen as culpable.”
Oh no! And we’re still paying for the 14th and 17th century climate! (Wait, doesn’t that make skeptics the accepters of climate change and the modern exceptionalists the deniers?)
101
Thanks Jo. Great blog post.
What I asked for back in 2015, I still want. In fact, now we know that the Bureau are not recording temperatures from automatic weather stations (AWS) consistent with guidelines (i.e. averaging over at least one minute), this information is even more critical.
So, this was my email to the Bureau, that they told me they would reply to in five days, then I never heard from them again. I did follow-up with emails and phone calls. Got nowhere.
From: Jennifer Marohasy
Date: Tue, Aug 25, 2015 at 2:48 PM
Subject: seeking clarification and additional data
To: climatedata@bom.gov.au
Hi,
I’m seeking clarification regarding equipment used to measure surface air temperatures at Wilsons Promontory lighthouse, Bureau number 85096.
I understand that both alcohol and mercury thermometers were used to measure minimum and maximum temperatures from November 1872 until September 2000.
I understand that the alcohol thermometers were removed and replaced with a temperature probe on 18th September 2000.
I understand that since 18th September 2000 both a temperature probe, and also the original mercury thermometer have been used to measure temperatures at Wilsons Promontory.
I understand that a second mercury thermometer was installed at Wilsons Promontory on 16th December 2002.
Could you please confirm that this assessment is correct?
Could you please also provide me with the complete digital/electronic temperature record (maximum and minimum) as measured from each of these different thermometers for the period of their available record.
I am particularly keen to know if there is a single continuous monthly record for the mercury thermometer installed in 1872, to the present.
Could you please also clarify which thermometer was used to supply the maximum and minimum values available online, i.e. at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
Kind regards
Jennifer Marohasy
Tel. 041 *** *** **
*******
My best email is jenniferm****** if someone can get this information for me.
532
Jen, thanks. I’ve added a pointer from the post to your comment.
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Send it to the parliamentary representatives, not as a complaint, but as backup for a request to make BOM data freely available, if necessary by modifying the BOM’s charter, or establishing a new project.
Some of the BOM’s activities are commercial. They will rush to protect those. It should be established at the policy level that primary data should be freely available as a service to the community.
60
Ted,
Your suggestion is the only way we can get information. If a public service refuses to play ball the responsible minister, who is our employee, must provide the information. To make it even more likely to receive an answer you write to your local member who then passes the request to the minister who then has no choice but to find the information. If all here did that the minister might well demand the BoM in this case answer you directly. Members, ministers and public servants have to be reminded on a regular basis that they work for us not the other way around.
30
The good news is Ken Stewart has been working hard plotting different types of charts of the problem that could have been exposed by that Wilsons Promontory lighthouse data. I have been working away on a method to measure and prove what the sudden spikes are. Well one of his charts just gave me a light bulb moment. No amount of white wash will hide this. Looks like if we do nothing the whole thing will be exposed on its own. The harder the BoM etc fight, the sillier they will look when the inevitable happens. It will be ugly to watch.
Lips sealed for now.
Lance Pidgeon
110
It is a pity that our national weather agency has been ” compromised” at the top end; not hard to find the agents responsible- especially the one mentioned in those revealing e-mails.No one should be in any doubt about this. Good forensics are the way to go.One can hope that the Augean stables will be cleansed and the smug operators given the boot. One hopes anyway.
80
Glen, I remind you that in December 1986 the Hawke government changed the management of the CSIRO, appointing a new board of management with Neville Wran as chairman. He was the first non scientist to hold that position. So that is how the rot set in from the top down. The politicians hijacked the management of the science.
That was the foundation stone for Australia’s contribution to the AGW scam
20
I can hardly wait for the inevitable to happen.
50
Jennifer, you must hit the BoM with and FOI !
and get pop corn!
10
Hi Jen. Just wondered if you’ve been using Right To Know at all. It appears to be very successful at getting responses to FOI requests owing to the public visibility the site gives… https://www.righttoknow.org.au/
20
“bemusing & gratifying?”
2015: For the scientists who identify, and adjust for, these biases in regional, national, or global climate records, this sudden burst of interest in our work is both bemusing and gratifying.
https://theconversation.com/global-warming-trend-unaffected-by-fiddling-with-temperature-data-37700
2017: For the scientists who identify, and adjust for, these biases in regional, national, or global climate records, this sudden burst of interest in our work is both
bemusing and gratifyingdebilitating and annoying.161
Total unmitigated arrogance from BOM.
Keep up the pressure on the scientific process.
They are NOT acting as scientists and this must be brought to public understanding.
KK
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Dear KK, While I admire what you say, I believe we have got it all wrong.
I have been watching and commenting on the science since at least 2008.
Our science is impeccable. We have proved the “Warmists” wrong so many times. We had the climategate emails (1&2).
Here in Australia we have proved time and time again that the BOM have fiddled the data, even thrown data out.
We have bashed away at the science so much my head hurts and I don’t comment so much any more because I realized some time back that we are trying to undo an IDEOLOGY by using science to undo their science. They have no science !
If Jesus walked up to the Pope and proved who he was and was accepted and then proceeded to tell the Pope that Christianity was a fr@ud and he just made it up, would the Pope believe him ?? NO, because there is too much at stake !
We are in exactly the same situation. This is why we are ignored, and we will be continually ignored unless we change our tactics. It us useless to attack an Ideology with logic and science. All we have shown over 10 years at least, is failure.
We have to go to the core issue and explain to ourselves and the public that this Ideology is ruining our country in the name of GLOBALISM. Globalism, the ideology, is the name of the game here and CAGW is only one of the tools that is being used against us and our nation.
You only have to look around the world to see what is happening to other western nations, Europe, the USA, Canada, South Africa, and Australia. Is the strife in the USA just because Trump is Trump ? NO, he has upset the Globalist plans and Hillary was to lead the USA into the New World Order in 2018, Half way through her first term.
We won’t beat this evil ideology with science, it has to be exposed for the evil it is.
We should all read up Saul Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals”, the Fabian Society, the Builderburgs and the Club of Rome and the Agenda 21 and now 30.
See the way we are being divided by the SSM survey, right out of Alinsky’s play book.
CAGW is just another way they try to bring this nation down.
We have to expose this evil Ideology hidden amongst us and drive it out.
Then again, like I have said before, I also believe in little green men, space ships, and flying saucers.
282
Oh, and President Trump gets it. Just look at what he has done and trying to do.
Pulls out of Paris. (No, there is no going back there)
Pulls out of the Trans Pacific Partnership.
Change NAFTA or pull out.
Restructure the EPA. (a ACGW hold out)
All anti Globalism.
And note his speech at the UNGA. All about nation sovereignty and Nationhood.
President Trump knows what has been going on for years and that is why the Globalists, Uniparty, The Deep State, Permanent Government, needs to get rid of him.
181
Chris
A post at Chiefio at the time pointed out that the TPP had 29 chapters, only 5 of which mentioned trade
60
Thanks
I agree with your comment but just for clarification what I had in mind for that comment was the science as it applies to BOM.
Their set task is to record the temperature correctly in accordance with standard scientific and statistical principles. They are not doing that
When you have outliers included in data to obtain say a running 10 minute average, that’s bad enough but they use the outliers as legitimate readings.
This is WRONG and Jo and Jennifer are doing a brilliant piece of work in showing up the BOMs total failure to adhere to known scientific principles of data collection, data recording and processing.
An audit would highlight these failures and our government has a duty to correct them and demand correct scientific process.
This is not complicated.
131
KK
“This is not complicated.”
Obviously it is for our government
50
Hi KK, I Agree with you entirely. We have to fight on both fronts and attack the corrupted science as well as the Ideology.
Just to give an example of this creeping disease of globalism, frog in the hot water pot, some years back, local authorities passed laws that prevented people from collecting dead wood from the forest floor and along side our streets and roads. As stupid as it was, no one really complained. Now, fast forward to another year in the future, a very cold year in South Australia, a state with no reliable electricity, and one very cold morning, no power and no heating and no cooking. Wouldn’t it be nice to go and collect some firewood to at least keep one warm, but no, collecting fire wood is illegal. If you do collect, don’t get caught.
Might not be the best example, but one thing for sure, we created this mess by not rejecting stupid laws that in the future come back to bite us, with very sharp teeth.
100
With the dumbed down ,useful idiot media in control of those open to minimal suggestion,it may be hard to get traction. Modern journalism is the result of brainwashing from the Alinskyists in acadème. Put the educators to the sword! Colloquial .
50
Journalism schools need to be brought into line and purged of Trot influence.
This won’t happen until the MSM (ABC, SBS, Guardian and Fairfax) take global cooling seriously.
20
IDEALOGY and CORRUPTION! Some of our currently serving politicians are as corrupt as any third world countries – certainly more insidous and dangerous.
50
Oops – spelling – insidious (crafty and treacherous)
30
From the time of the election of the Abbott government the AGW push redoubled its propaganda campaign world wide. That campaign buried our science for the time being, so your observation has weight.
But the science is the main battlefield. To abandon the science is to lose the war. And it is a war, WWIII, and well under way, without visible bloodshed to date. Maintain the vigilance!
James Bradley highlights that having fudged the data to the limit, they can only now go backwards. Maybe, but, their lies have prevailed thus far.
The more you think about it, the one second data issue should be the rock they perish on. An occasional glance at the daily records suggests that in terms of long term records, the single event extreme figures could be inflated by more than a whole degree, even up towards three degrees. When they claim their warmest evers on the basis of a small fraction of a degree they stand in danger of being found out in a very big way.
Is Rob Vertessy worrying that they might in some way be found out? Watch this space!
00
One of the Problems here is that the BOM has stepped out beyond their proper role into long term future casting and Climate Activism. I doubt that the charter for the BOm includes that.
Another problem is accountability. DR Rob Vertessy was head of a government organisation which has caused large and quantifiable harm to the Australian economy and politics. He should be made to answer for that and there should be consequences for what is now seen as conscionable conduct.
Failure of the BOM to keep reliable records is also a charge that Rob Vertessy should have to answer.
181
This is quite interesting;
BOM-Service Charter for the Community
http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/services_policy/serchart.shtml#how
201
I have a suggestion for them but I’m not sure it’s physically possible and would put me in moderation .
81
You mean it may be anatomically impossible?
50
Beautiful.
41
. . . . . was referring to Peter’s post . . . .
51
Thanks Peter C,
I reckon this paragraph from their charter is designed to give then carte blanche to take anything the WMO asks and put it into action here. And isn’t the WMO Maurice Strong’s starting point? What more authority would a good warmist need?
Cheers,
Dave B
50
Thanks Peter C for posting that link to the BOM Service Charter. I have noted here before that the Meteorology Act 1955 doesn’t even mention the word “climate” so it’s puzzling why the BOM are always prattling on about climate.
That service charter mentions climate quite a bit, which is not a good thing. As for the BOM’s role in the “protection of the global atmosphere”, that’s just astonishing. They suggest this charter is a pre-digested version of their official charter to which they helpfully provide a broken link. I wonder what it says (the “inside” in the URL seems a little reminiscent of the “censored” directory on Mann’s FTP site — is it only for insiders?). The BOM do such a bang-up job of pre-digesting data; perhaps they do an equally good job pre-digesting charters. Have they just made up their own job description?
If the official charter actually charges the BOM with protecting the global atmosphere, it leaves us to wonder what is left for the state EPAs or the Federal Department of Environment.
The BOM has a really important role: weather. That should be the start and end of it.
50
“Thanks Peter C for posting that link to the BOM Service Charter. I have noted here before that the Meteorology Act 1955 doesn’t even mention the word “climate””
Please notice that your academic BOM Meteorologists are fighting for salary and pensions. They have nothing left.
Long ago were Astrologers that looked way out and tried to make sense of it.
They detected patterns in the star clusters, and compared to local goings on. Discovery ‘kinda’ of some deterministic progressive helix of this universe. Kinda cyclic but never repetitive!
Folk came to them for advice on the future.
They kindly listened of wishes, then kindly advised on the future likelihood of those wishes, based on past observations of way out there ‘and’ local going on. 300 years ago formed the breakaway meteorology kids that made up weird stories ’bout cause of local weather; then trying to sell that nonsense!
Kicked out of the Astrologers Guild for incompetence plus a** hole attitude. These folK established BOM WMO NASA and NOAA. This somehow made young peons worldwide give attention to self appointed meteorologists.
The rest is history. There was not and still is not any science involved in this SCAM.
11
Was that supposed to be 30 years Will?
20
No! ‘Twas the 1700s when these fools got kicked out. In retrospect, perhaps a more definitive sanction would now allow young lovers to still ask the Old guys “what will be?”, and about children.
‘
21
Good points.
42
I think it went bad after the CSIRO and BoM became joined at the hip, and of course when ACORN-SAT was introduced.
71
The debate is becoming really painful.
The BOM answer to the two clips of lower temperatures was it only affected those gauges found.
‘through incredible coincidence — only these two stations, and it didn’t matter’
However the quiet conversation is actually here
http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/09/john-plus-10-degrees-bureau-loses-minus-10-degrees/
So the BOM raised a straw man, two stations, and as pointed out above, denied the rest by ignoring it.
Kinky Keith asks why the BOM should be designing climate models.
Just coming back from Condobolin and Dubbo there are strong grounds to want a good climate predictive service for Australia.
In Condo the local wheat crop is failed, Dubbo faces a destruction of the Canola crop within one month
if no rain falls.
Now I appreciate that if BOM cannot use thermometers, maybe they may have problems with precipitation, humidity and ground temperatures as well.
However fallible they may be, we are desperate for verifiable regional climate and weather predictions that are accurate.
Starting with bad data means nothing works in the climate business.
Neural networks may be of use in predicting local climate in the Central West of NSW.
When BOM homogenised Rutherglen with Hillston, two different climate regions, I knew then that nothing they did with those numbers would be meaningfull at a local level that would help farmers and graziers in the Central West.
Neural networks are used in China,perhaps they use data hacked from BOM. The debate saga lives on.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/technology-advances-push-climate-debate-in-new-directions/news-story/45067d6c382af0378271b28dfe463f28
Jennifer Marohasy has manufactured, with help, a neural learning,so planning network.
The debate there is good.
But who will actually listen?
121
Yes. 🙂
61
Click……thoooooommmmpppffffffff
Sound of the “blowtorch” of unrelenting pressure firing up….again…..
71
Actually I meant that the debate is becoming very painful for the BOM. I am sorry for the farmers who are experiencing difficult conditions.
80
Hi Lewis
Just in case, the climate models I refered to were assumed to be those involving CO2 and temperature.
The weather prediction type of work, weather forecasting, doesn’t use those models.
Stewart who was at Newcastle university was involved in prediction and forecasting. He’s now in Tasmania.
If BOM stopped praying to the God of climate change and did some real weather forecasting we would all be a lot happier.
KK
91
Lewis p Buckingham –
thanks for posting The Australian Inquirer article. can hardly believe it was published by the paper. do we know who wrote the piece?
definitely a must-read. there are 90-plus comments now, so hope it gets widely read.
30
Pat
Any way round the paywall?
30
Another Ian –
am going to post what I excerpted in a new comment.
20
Pat Thanks
10
The compiler and journalist is Graham LLoyd.
The Australian is a big tent, which I have not entered.
I just buy the newspaper itself and read it over time.
Unless this is on Google news with one click then you will not easily get this news.
The following should not be read by the good Burghers at the Australian, please skip to the next comment.
What I did was put ‘Advances push climate debate in new directions the australian’
into google and pressed search.
You could even put in
‘There is no reason to believe that cycles that have been present for thousands of years suddenly ceased to operate about a century ago’.
The Australian and Murdoch press has itself reported being in ‘negotiation’ with Google to stop one click news.
As an aggregator Google makes a lot of money out of good journalism like this , but fails to pay tax in Australia and pay The Australian which pays Graham Lloyd.
It also skews climate articles to alarmist propaganda, so interferes with debate.
It is notable that the SMH carried the same articles as the Guardian, which failed to answer the terms of the present ‘debate’, by ignoring key findings.
A failure of the journalistic skill.
70
“Every minute a BoM executive spends on this nonsense is a minute lost to managing risk and protecting the community. It is a real problem.”
That wouldn’t explain this:
18 April, 2011: Amateur predicted ‘inland tsunami’
“ON January 10, amateur weather buff Neil Pennell did what trained meteorologists did not — predict the devastating and tragic flood event which tore though Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley claiming 23 lives.
The Bureau of Meteorology has come under fire with suggestions they did not do enough to warn people about the impeding disaster.”
BoM response.
April 19, 2011: Bureau predicted freak flood hour earlier
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/bureau-predicted-freak-flood-hour-earlier-20110418-1dlj1.html
. . .
The BoM couldn’t predict 6 o’clock at 5.30!
171
I remember a local news weather man that would often contradict suggested forecasts for the next few days , his accuracy was astounding .
And another weather presenter that predicted the end of the cold winter weather a few years back about five days in advance , neither still work as weather presenters .
51
Ha ha I remember (30+ years ago) the local radio presenter reading the weather forecast ” Fine and dry … What the f”£K it’s pissing down!… Weather forecast,rain”
101
Binny
Sounds a bit like the one that went
“And Darwin fine. I suggest that the BOM move to Darwin as it seems to suit them better”
30
I remember in the 1960s a radio weather report referred to “frogs and fost”
41
Ah Ha! Yes, I remember the Alf Gard incident although without the f word (I think the ABC would have sacked him over that).
What was interesting was the BoM’s response. They analysed their maximum temperature predictions for the previous 3 months, and allowing themselves ±1 degree were able to claim around 60% accuracy and with ± 2 degrees around 83% accuracy (from memory)
They then compared that with Alf’s predictions for the horse race winners where he ran at 10% accuracy.
A classic apples v oranges ploy but it shut down the debate far more effectively than Vertessy’s virtue defence.
30
Noticed BOM taking to social media in a big way
Here’s @BOM_Vic tweet about HOTTEST EVER September Day?
30.6C today?
Earliest September
Hottest ever
On record!
It’s not!
It’s wrong!
And Josh Frydenberg should curtail this alarmism!
I hope they keep this up, it will prove over time that even the public will reject their notices!
Builders I speak to, only use BOM radar for information.
Their comments about their forecasts cannot be printed here!
110
“Earliest September
Hottest ever
On record!”
I seem to remember a September that arrived in August one year .
50
If the Radar is working. The doppler radar at buclkland park was down for months for an upgrade earlier this year. A grape grower friend of mine was not impressed. Many of their radars are not doppler. Compare this to the USA, we have WSR-88D covering most of the country. The longest I can ever remover a radar being out of service for was several days, waiting for parts to come.
50
Re Waiting for BOM to respond.
I got a same day answer from the BOM the other day.
I wrote asking why our capital cities are not having heatwaves that obey the official line of being longer, hotter and more frequent than before.
Their same day answer did not help. Here it is.
Dear Geoffrey,
Thank you for your enquiry.
The publication library for the Climate Change in Australia website has a complete list of references in support of scientific syntheses @ https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/publications-library/
The Bureau is unable to comment on unpublished scientific hypotheses or studies, and we encourage you to publish your work in a suitable journal. Through the peer reviewed literature, you can take up any criticism you have of existing methodologies and have these published in a format and forum that is accessible to other scientists.
Regards,
Climate Monitoring and Prediction
The data I sent are not suitable for a scientific paper because they are little more than elementary maths, adding up and taking away of the BOM’s own data.
http://www.geoffstuff.com/are_heatwaves_hotter.pdf
http://www.geoffstuff.com/graphs_sydmelb_heatwaves.pdf
http://www.geoffstuff.com/highest_sydmelb.jpg
http://www.geoffstuff.com/century_days_sydmelb.jpg
Geoff.
131
scientific syntheses @ or scientific synthetics
Synthetic
adjective [usually ADJECTIVE noun]
Synthetic products are made from chemicals or artificial substances rather than from natural ones.
Boots made from synthetic materials can usually be washed in a machine.
…synthetic rubber.
Synonyms: artificial, manufactured, fake, man-made
20
All week the BOM have been pushing the line the Bourke temperature would reach 40C, the hottest ever September day.
The temperature sat at the 32-33 mark most of the day, at 1:00pm it was 32.8C, suddenly at 1:11pm it jumped to 35.0C, a new record for Dubbo.
Just as suddenly at 1:23pm it dropped to 32.5C.
How convenient where those few minutes towards proving Global Warming and just how desperate to set any kind of record.
Almost like someone whipped a hair dryer out to the weather station
222
Love to see a minute by minute readout over those 23 minutes, might make for an interesting analysis.
101
This highlights the problem with the one second recordings. What were the readings for 1:10 pm and 1:20 pm?
10
It’s been freakishly hot for September here on the midcoast of NSW. But since we had a heatwave in September of 1965 when the max was in the mid-30s for five days in a row the word “unprecedented” can’t apply. Won’t stop someone applying it, of course.
120
Interestingly, our minimum temperatures up here on the Northrn Tablelands are running Minus 4 degrees below average. Maxima on spot though it will be pushed up during the coming week. Why our nocturnal temps are so low is strange.
60
Interesting
61
I guess Dubbo must have been globally cooled until today, since its highest September temp was the 34.4 achieved in 1965. Now it’s globally warmed. (My own region remains globally cooled since its hottest September day was in 1965 and its hottest September was in 1919 and its hottest year was in 1915. But we might be globally warmed by tomorrow, if we get that unprecedented 37C predicted. Or at least globally daily septemberly warmed.)
By the way, Dubbo had seven days in a row above 30C in September 1965, including its old record of 34.4. Not bad for the first month of spring, even if it was the end of the month. If it happened now it would be unprecedented. But it happened in ole ’65 so it’s down the ole memory hole with the rest of the precedents.
111
Just came from Dubbo.
The canola looks good still, but is using subsoil moisture to survive and grow.
Were BOM to use transitory temperature readings to lock in a climate model for Dubbo they would be doing the local agricultural industries a severe disservice.
It is time to pull back from this scientific precipice in case people are hurt.
We need reliable data backing reliable prognostic local climate models.
61
Do you think farmers would use the BOM or their own observations and historical records?
60
old44
Don’t rock the boat!
It is easy now – just believe the opposite to BOM
50
Some prefer their own observations and predictions some use a mix of the two and some only use BOM now .
Friends father (farmer) had records of temp and rainfall going back around 1890 ish and never used the BOM forecast at all .
Where as one that I worked for used a mix of both and another farmer friend uses the BOM only .
21
Modern farmers use high tech.
10
Which refers to old records.
30
Why not? There are activists.
61
Poor things. They work so hard telling the weather system how to behave. Yet, it only does what it does and ignores them. Bad weather system. It should know better. It is government beuracrats who grant permission for the weather to act. They must be terribly traumatized when they are so vivaciously ignored.
Clearly, they need a vastly larger staff and a much multiplied budget to force the weather system into line. Either that or some safe places and therapy for their debilitating PTSD.
Perhaps it is merely the dance of a headless chicken. Wait long enough and it will stop dancing. Unfortunately it is a very expensive chicken.
71
He he……chickens taste good when “roasted” in the oven of public exposure……
Pass the salt…..
71
From the comment/statement Vertessy made to the Guardian, it’s very tempting to visualise one one-armed paper-hanger in the basement doing all the work with several floors of `executive’ offices above… 🙂
10
Hmmm, maybe the BOM has been caught out again? Maybe with one of their temperature spikes? I was looking at Weatherzone, and noticed a blurb on the side that said Mildura had the hottest September day at 37.7C. However, when you look at the temperature record, there is nothing over 37.2, when the previous record was at 37.4! (back in 2003). I took a screen shot of the observations, but not sure if they’ll post? I’ll try! Ok, doesn’t work. There are 5 observations recorded, 12.00, 12.01, 12.10, 12.20, 12.28.
Highest was 37.2, dropping to 36.1 at 12.28. I fail to see how on earth they can squeeze a 37.7 into that short timeframe! So, where did they get that extra 0.5C from?
72
‘Every minute a BOM executive spends on this nonsense is a
minute lost to managing risk and protecting the community.’
says ex BOM Director Vertussy.
Dejavu all over again. Shades of East Anglia, Climate
Research Unit denial that publicly funded work is, well,
funded by the public. Play back…
‘CRU Refuses FOI Request for Yamal Climategate Chronology
Posted on April 28, 2011.’
By Steve McIntyre
‘Probably no single issue damages the reputation of the
climate science community more than the refusal to show
the data that supports their work, even under an FOI
request. The public believes that scientists who purport
to be concerned about the future of the planet should
not place their own financial interests, including future
grants, ahead of this concern, particularly when their
research has been done with public funds.
Recently I sent an FOI request to the University of East
Anglia for a regional chronology combining Yamal, Polar
Urals and shorter (presumably Schweingruber) chronologies
referred to in Climategate email 1146252894.txt, as well
as a request for even a simple list of sites used to
make the chronology. This request is for data that is
central to Climategate. Yamal was in controversy in the
days prior to Climategate. I drew particular attention
to this issue and this series in my own submission.
Unfortunately, the “inquiries” avoided the issue.
Not only did East Anglia refuse my request for the
regional chronology, they even refused to identify the
sites. The University claimed that even identifying the
sites would result in “financial harm” to the university
though an adverse impact on their “ability to attract
research funding”. ‘
102
‘Every minute a BOM executive spends on this nonsense is a
minute lost to managing risk and protecting the community.’
says ex BOM Director Vertussy
———————————————–
When I read that I pictured this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBe_guezGGc
61
Every time JoNova says “I don’t believe in fairy tales” another BOM protocol dies.
31
Beth, there is another common thread below.
42
I thought the BoM was protecting me, tirelessly, every minute, but then…
http://tinyurl.com/ybxpazfw
The horror.
http://tinyurl.com/ybgzeenf
The horror.
61
Is THAT a renewable?
30
It was a renewable. Then it was an irretrievable. Now it’s a reef.
Ever fantasize what life would be like if all the billions frittered on Big Green had been spent on new A-USC coal power plants like Asians build for burning Australian coal? I do. I fantasize a lot about life without the Blob.
60
I fantasize about life without the blob and without the U.N. and especially the UNIPCCCC and Christiana and Julie, our own “donator in chief”.
KK
30
Ironic how the wave generator only generated waves of criticism and wasted money but no electricity.
80
The second one (in South Australia) sank before it was installed. I think that now the weather is turning warm – thanks to the BoM – I should drive down to Carrickalinga and get a photo or two before it is demolished.
Come to think of it — the BoM has an annual weather photo calender. Why don’t we think about a calender of Green wasted projects?
91
” … think about a calender of Green wasted projects?”
There was once a site called “oops” with subcategories of things that had gone wrong. I did not find that site just now and the word is common for many other issues.
Still, a place to assemble photos of green projects gone wrong would be great. If I were 20 years younger and multiple times more computer savvy I might try it. Not a calendar though, we get too many free ones now.
30
“simple list of sites used to make the chronology”
Simple list of sites allegedly used to make the chronology.
Fixed.
10
Every minute a BOM executive expends on
their nonsense…a minute lost!!
‘There’s a sad sort of clanging
from the clock on the wall…’
https://rclutz.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/doomsday_clock2.png
20
As said before this is a petulant even childish response from a PhD Hydrologist, who worked his way into the booming Climate business and now earns his living as a Professor at Melbourne University after the CSIRO and BOM.
“Undertaking research on Climate Change and water security. I’m interested in assessment methods, monitoring systems and forecasting approaches that can be used to harden water security under hydroclimatic changes.”
Clearly he has Climate Change on his shingle and does not want to be questioned.
The Australian National University, Ph.D, Fluvial geomorphology
1984 – 1990 My PhD was on the morphodynamics of macrotidal tropical estuaries.
Clearly a meteorologist then. Like Flannery and Gore.
122
Phil Jones (Hide the decline) from the University of East Anglia was also an hydrology PhD. Obviously found his niche in Climate Change.
BA in Environmental Sciences, University of Lancaster (1973)
MSc in Engineering Hydrology, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne (1974)
PhD in Hydrology, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne (1977)
Climate Change, the popular subject which employs so many.
His infamous email “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature [the science journal] trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie, from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline,” the email said.
142
Far be it for me to incite a lawless act but speaking from a purely tactical standpoint. As long as you keep playing by their rules you will lose unless the dynamics of the battleground changes in some fundamental way. IOW it’s beginning to look like it will take a good hacker aka: Climate Gate, or an inside whistle blower to get around the stonewalling of these so called “public servants” and to gain access to your so called “public” records.
81
Artillery rounds on target; fire for effect!
Note: no actual arrogant, lying, weaselly, corrupt climate scientists or fragile young climate campaigners were harmed in the deployment of this military metaphor.
71
well worth a read:
23 Sept: Townhall: Paul Driessen: Now it’s a War on Pipelines
https://townhall.com/columnists/pauldriessen/2017/09/23/now-its-a-war-on-pipelines-n2385323
42
NOAA: Assessing the Global Climate in August 2017
Globe had its third warmest August and second warmest year to date
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201708
18 Sept: Tony Heller: Monthly NOAA State Of The Climate Fraud Report
PLUS COMMENTS
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/monthly-noaa-state-of-the-climate-fraud-report/
41
OT but important:
Solar City fined $30 million.
http://wivb.com/2017/09/22/solar-city-fined-almost-30-mill-for-renewable…
Solar City will pay the federal government almost $30 million for making claims it could not back up.
Solar City made claims for renewable energy grants under the 2009 stimulus package.
The Department of Justice accused them of overstating their costs- violating the False Claims Act.
110
Of course, Vertussy knows only too well that BoM’s management “hash” has been documented. And well documented too!
However, he and his confirmation biased colleagues are in denial. And, the Minister responsible for BoM has been “snowed” (which is not “a thing of the past” either)
Does he not remember this:
“I’m quickly realising that the Australian stations are in such a state that I’m having to constantly refer to the station descriptions on the BOM website, which are individual PDFs:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cdo/metadata/pdf/metadata088110.pdf
(Don’t waste your time trying to open it – BoM reports that the item you requested could not be found. Are you surprised?)
…“getting seriously fed up with the state of the Australian data. so many new stations have been introduced, so many false references
.. so many changes that aren’t documented. Every time a cloud forms I’m presented with a bewildering selection of similar-sounding sites, some with references, some with WMO codes, and some with both. And if I look up the station metadata with one of the local references, chances are the WMO code will be wrong (another station will have it) and the lat/lon will be wrong too.”
HARRY_READ_ME.TXT
What “beggars belief” is that Vertussy thinks he will get away with it.
111
It’ll make you cry but you can read the full HARRY_READ_ME.TXT and especially paragraph 32 (but read para 31, too) here:
http://thevirtuousrepublic.com/blog/?p=4774
70
I liked this paragraph:
100
Was the AWS even invented in 1962?
60
On an article by Graham Lloyd today “A report in Nature last month says researchers have used AI systems in recent years to help them rank climate models, spot cyclones and other extreme weather events — in both real and modelled climate data — and identify new patterns.”
The problem I have with this is that “The Science” is changing, adapting, being revised to fit the facts. Now they are adding new ‘science’, artificial intelligence? This is all wrong.
The world is what it is. If theories and models do not correctly explain what happens, the theories are wrong, not the facts. When your theories embedded in your models consistently make wrong predictions, that is not natural variation, your theories are wrong. Your models are wrong. Then the very thing ‘climate science’ denies, natural variation is suddenly called into service to explain when predictions are consistently wrong over a very long period.
When will there be an admission that the computer models were wrong, are wrong and cannot predict tomorrow’s weather let alone the thousands of micro climates of the world. When will hurricanes, droughts, floods and bush fires stop being predicted somehow by Climate Change and just be the climate? How do the experts distinguish between a climate change hurricane and a natural variation hurricane. We are being told all hurricanes are proof of Climate Change.
The core story is that with Artificial Intelligence, models can be ‘ranked’ and selected? That is not science, it is just nonsense, using computers to pick the least wrong prediction? Perhaps we can get back to auguries or Tarot cards or just make it up? It is a desperate scientist who argues that using more computer power will make sense of wrong theories. Just shuffle the cards then.
Of course then you get enthusiasts modifying the data to create what they want to see, what they expect to see. This is not artificial intelligence. It is not science. It is deceit.
162
Clearly an ever increasingly complicate code running on increasingly more powerful computers is expected to deliver the miracle of the justification for doing what they wanted to do from the get go. Increase the size of their staff, their budgets, and their power to intrude more deeply into the lives of their constituents.
It is nothing but fast talk, slight of hand, and the waving of shiny things to keep us common folk from noticing our jobs are being eliminated, our pockets are being picked, and our cupboards are being stripped bare for less in return than a bowl of moldy six day old porridge.
It is a largely unconstrained government doing what governments have always done except for one thing. We common folk have noticed what they are doing, we are not happy with the results, and we are talking back. We know they are nothing but slick street peddlers of counterfit goods and we want nothing of it.
91
TdeF and Lionell,
Thank you for highlighting that BOM is trying to model “natural variation”.
It cannot be done and that is why observation by a farmer is often more accurate in prediction than a contrived computer driven pseudo scientific model.
KK
71
The basic argument behind Climate is that while it is hard to predict the localized weather even in the afternoon in some locations, the ‘climate’ over a much longer period can be predicted with enough data. However for most of this story of atmospheric warming, CO2 blankets and coal driven weather, most of the data is ignored because most of the data is in the oceans, huge store and buffer weighing 340x as much as the thin air above. Covering 3/4 of the world (including Antarctica and Greenland), we humans live in a very small part on land. That is why it is always wrong and all this is only to predict one variable, temperature.
The weather is chaotic with endless variables, turbulence and layers, currents and major disruptions like volcanoes. So you would think that scientists would look to long term analysis of patterns to systematize chaos rather than try to explain the weather with one single tiny gas. It looks like the science is trying to blame the weather on CO2 and CO2 alone. So many people spend their lives trying to justify a war on fossil fuels, rather than looking for the truth. That is why ‘the science’ is so suspect, despite its defence by the bureaucrats of the CSIRO and BOM, in this case the one person.
That is why the Prof Weiss analysis is so impressive because it fits all the facts and gives us the past and the future, accurately, unlike the BOM and CSIRO and IPCC models. This explains everything with two cycles, the 215 year De Vries solar cycle and the 10 year PDO. We in Australia know about the 11 year cycle. In Egypt, nile watchers have built a society around such measurements for at least 1600 years. This is how real science is done. Discover, not presume the underlying patterns in a chaotic system on a very long time scale.
However the Vertessy way is to defend Climate Change, that weird science which seeks to pin every natural event on CO2. How else does he explain the years of 350 full time Climate scientists in the CSIRO and another 500 in the BOM and committees. What were they doing? What did they achieve? What did ‘the problem solvers’ solve? What did we, the Australian taxpayers, get for our money?
92
This farmer no longer claims to be the weathermen’s equal. They have got a lot smarter than they used to be with 7 day forecasts.
And those forecasts come with the caveat, untouched by human hands!
They’re not all bad.
30
You would think forecasts could be automated, based on decades of records and pattern matching like fingerprints. As you also have the records of what happened next, even in a turbulent system, you should have a good idea of what is to come. So with fully automatic weather stations, satellites and computer analysis apart from service people and running costs why do we need 500 people? As weather is the single most important issue for most people, a most saleable commodity to news channels and especially important for so many, why isn’t the BOM completely self funding, profitable and sold off?
Sell the BOM, CSIRO, ABC/SBS. We do not need them. Unless the CSIRO can offer some solution for Climate Change, after spending hundreds of millions solving the problem. Or was that not true?
51
More succinctly
You would think for $500million a year, every year, you could buy 10,000 modern stephenson boxes and connect them via satellite, powered by solar in Australia and have all the data you wanted, without people.
You would think you could sell this data for a lot of money, interpret it by existing computer software to report and make predictions and have a completely automatic system.
Is there any need for the BOM now? If they are only reporting on the weather, what do they do? Make it?
62
Sorry, Stevenson screens or the modern equivalent.
Plus for a measly $500million, launch our own weather satellite, just for our use. Make it a service for the NBN too. Sell the data and the service.
I can understand that we need an army, we need police, we need teachers but I do not see why the government should employ meteorologists and scientists with guaranteed jobs. Nor is it obvious what good comes from it all. Except perhaps that the CSIRO coinvented WiFi, as we are told in advertisements.
61
The CSIRO does a lot more than climate change. In our industry it holds the rank of Fairy Godmother!
I would expect that this would apply to other industries, too.
Then there are a lot of other activities, the Parkes radio telescope being one example.
10
https://www.parkes.atnf.csiro.au/
10
http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Facilities/ATNF/Parkes-radio-telescope/About-Parkes
10
“It is not science. It is deceit.”
Indeed the folk promoting these Spaghetti code computer models have not the integrity, education nor experience to acquire a industry competitive job at any level. Such fine input matter for the Soylent green machine. 🙂
31
34 years ago, I was IT manager of the a famous European business school (INSEAD). Some professors were dabbling with so-called “Artificial Intelligence” and they needed some technical help. I checked out their code (LISP) and it was really just the same as classical coding – garbage in garbage out.
More recently, I looked at what has become of AI and I am glad to see that the computers might be a lot cheaper and faster, but the coding is still garbage in garbage out. It is deterministic. The self-learning mantra is bullshit. Lots of people are making money out of this scam – but that is the way it always has been in IT.
Here is the timeline of these languages:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisp_(programming_language)#Timeline
If you check the details of each individual language, you will find they are all derivatives of LISP. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose
10
The B.O.M. needs a little safe space,
To wipe the egg off its face,
Due to skeptics who asked,
Why some cooling was masked,
Making warmer their temps. database.
211
I hate to keep responding to Jo’s headlines and major subject headings but doggone it anyway, doesn’t the truth sting a whole lot? You can see what they’re all about without reading any further.
It’s amazing how the excuses and rationalizations keep boiling to the surface of the climate change pot and from there go floating all over the known world setting off fire and smoke alarms as though there was actually a fire under the pot. But in fact it’s not even on the stove unless the climate change believers put it there.
Do they ever stop to take a good look at themselves? I guess I should quit asking that question because there seems to be only one answer… …a big loud NO.
Pathetic is th only word for it. 🙁
132
The Bureau of Meteorology reaction to tattlers is an example of what pseudoscientists call “balance.” Balance is prevarication carefully engineered to fit halfway between the truth and a lie. As to their deliberate destruction of data, Orwell insisted most totalitarian nonsense was foisted not by clumsy lying, but rather, by “skillful elision.” If the same thing weren’t also happening in Texas, I’d shrug it off as the consequence of the Great Unwashed not having Second Amendment rights.
51
‘….halfway between the truth and a lie.’
Commonly known as propaganda.
60
Most revealing is the looter bureaucrat assertion that “protecting the community” means lying to and taxing people at gunpoint. This is soooo different from the protection of individual rights, which points guns AWAY from people and at violent, lying criminals.
61
Looks like BOM is doing
“the dance on the hot tin roof”
– heated by their own “hottest evah”
61
Regarding Vertussy
Me thinks he doth protest to much.
He certainly sounds guilty to me!
52
Reliable information disappears from BoM Australia, politicians blame climate change.
34
Evaporates.
20
It would be interesting to see how much the creative accounting for weather and climate change has cost Australians just through insurance costs and impositions by state and local government.
44
Much like the climate models the BOM readings are moving further away from the real world. Is it any surprise BOM is tracking closer to the models than to the real world? Soon we will have them still reporting record high temperatures while we are experiencing actual freezing winters as we continue to enter the mini-ice age. When that happens the people will wake up to the shenanigans BOM has been undertaking. By then there will be a new market opportunity for two types of thermometers. One that aligns with the BOM readings and the other one aligned to the real world.
62
BoM should consult Russia and ask about their scientists’ predictions in the 1970s of a much colder period on the way, just before the global warming propaganda commenced.
And inquire about the reasons why Russia is building new ice breaker ships for naval and merchant shipping.
62
Also, I’ve noticed for some time an apparent tendency by BOM in their daily forecasts to announce higher temperatures than actually experienced. They of course adjust them downwards as we get nearer to the forecast date. I’d love to see a trend analysis over time to see if the adjustments are always from initially higher temperatures, or they average out close to 0, which would be the expected result if their forecasts are not biased. If there is a bias it would indicate a major problem with their models for forecasting near-term temperatures, similar to the climate change models that we all know are false.
71
G’day PeterS,
The Mudgee airport maxima actual v forecast numbers have been quite close recently, but I’ve been watching the same comparison for the overnight minimum, and can now report the largest discrepancy evah (at least since Istarted watching closely a couple of weeks back) and it’s now, as of today at 5.5 degrees celcius. 17.5 actual v 12 forecast. Not bad, eh… The errors are not consistently in one direction.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/nsw/central-tablelands/mudgee
(Again, this link will only show the two numbers until today’s is moved on.)
Cheers,
Dave B
30
A quite remarkable set of numbers in the 24 hrs to this morning at Mudgee, including a gust of 102 km/h @ 00:34 with a three degree rise in temp from an already very high number. Temp fluctuated a lot all night.
20
Recommented on Vertessy quote from Pat on previous thread
” “As the costs of climate change accumulate in the years ahead, I can see that leaders of this climate change denial movement will really be seen as culpable.”…”
Alternative view is that the likes of Vertessy will find themselves “like a Christian Scientist with appendicitis” (to use Tom Lehrer’s description of a predicament)
41
I think Rob Vertessy gave an excellent reply.
If the “conspiracy” was real, it would have had to involve maybe a dozen past directors of the BoM, and well over a hundred employees over the years.
You’re dreamin if you think the conspiracy could keep a secret with so many public servants.
44
So why was he replying in the first case? It’s not his job but he seems very defensive.
72
‘…would have had to involve maybe a dozen past directors of the BoM…’
Not that many, John Zillman was a big fan of the IPCC and all those who came after him genuflected to a monstrous lie.
41
Spot on el gordo.
I remember it well.
And there’s only been four since his time.
50
You’ve obviously never worked with zealots, Dr No.
Or, alternatively, you are one.
And, there hasn’t been “a dozen past directors of the BoM”, in all of its 109 year history!
So, clearly, you don’t know what you’re talking about. But that never stops zealots from creating their own facts.
62
Ok. I may have overestimated but you would have to agree a lot of people would have had to be involved over many years in such a conspiracy. Many would have retired by now.
I still say you’re dreaming.
22
The Klimatariat underlings are all brainwashed into accepting AGW or lose their jobs, so a conspiracy of silence has produced this appalling stench and I’m surprised you haven’t noticed.
00
Dr No
September 24, 2017 at 8:53 am · Reply
I think Rob Vertessy gave an excellent reply.
If the “conspiracy” was real, it would have had to involve maybe a dozen past directors of the BoM, and well over a hundred employees over the years.
You’re dreamin if you think the conspiracy could keep a secret with so many public servants.
I wouldn’t exactly call it a conspiracy, there are plenty govt run departments that are inept at what they do but what’s different about this one is a whistle blower would lose his income and face the wrath of his peers who’s income and livelihood depend on keeping the scam going .
31
I guess they call it semantic change, but in my dictionary conspiracies were raised against governments, not by governments.
Dr No shows a very poor comprehension of the problem we face, which is common with our modern scholars. The “buck” here doesn’t stop with the director. It carries through to the director’s boss, the people who do the hiring and firing of the directors. So the place the buck stops here is with the politicians. Which isn’t science! You don’t have to have 100 wrong scientists. You only need to have one wrong boss, with the 100 hunting up dry gullies.
It is a fundamental fact that scientific effort tends to find what it is looking for. Here we have confirmation bias added.
This article in The Guardian tells us a lot about Rob Vertessy and the past management of the CSIRO. While his concern for “wasted” time is no doubt legitimate, if failure to attend to a problem results, then he is wrong.
21
?
11
For years the BOM has gotten away with murder in its pursuit of statistics in support of CAGW and ‘revealing’ *all new* Australian “hottest ever” records of all sorts Now that they are coming under sustained fire from professionals like JoNova and Jennifer Marohasy, they are squealing like pigs. The only Climate Change that we are seeing is the disappearance of reliable and real data from the BOM records.Ce only The BOM will do anything to hang onto its Flow of Funding from CAGW.
101
I wonder how much longer it will take for television broadcasters to realise that fake weather is annoying viewers who tend to switch to another channel?
73
If Australia isn’t warming, somebody forgot to tell the grapes that are now growing inTasmania.
32
Dr no,
Here is some information that you clearly missed.
Tasmania was one of the earliest regions in Australia to be planted with vines and was even the source of cuttings for the first vineyards in Victoria and South Australia. It was also home to some of the earliest wines to gain attention outside of the county with a fortified dessert wine by Bartholomew Broughton being praised by one English writer as Australia’s equivalent to Port.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_wine
31
Nobody claimed there were no grapes in Tasmania previously.
But it is a fact that the climate there has become more and more favourable for win production over recent decades.
Here is some information about the situation in Victoria:
Family-owned winemaker Brown Brothers has been growing grapes in Victoria since the 1880s.
The company was founded by John Francis Brown, but established its reputation and success under his son John Charles Brown.
When John returned to Milawa in regional Victoria after finishing boarding school in 1958, he harvested his first vintage of grapes in the early days of April.
Fifty years later, the grapes are off the vines by April, with picking often starting in February. Within a generation, the harvest start date has shifted along with the climate in the valley.
It’s a dramatic indication of how climate change is affecting the way we make wine in Australia.
“It’s probably more apparent in terms of earlier ripening, more rapid ripening and more compact vintages,” said Brett McClen, Brown Brothers’ chief viticulturist, responsible for six vineyards in Victoria and Tasmania.
“We are working with shorter time frames. Once upon a time a vintage would have taken 100 days but we do the bulk of it within 60 days,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-04/how-climate-change-is-affecting-the-wine-we-drink/8074252
Now, don’t try and tell me the winemakers are in the conspiracy.
22
Great to know that Tasmania can now produce something, isn’t it.
A massive benefit to them, wouldn’t you agree. 😉
That extra atmospheric CO2 does work wonders, doesn’t it. 🙂
More needed.
23
I repeat, to try to overcome your brain-blocked ignorance.
ALL of Tasmania is less far from the equator than Bordeaux ?
23
Oh, silly me. This explains everything. For years I was convinced my curtains had been fading because of daylight savings. Now I discover that it’s been caused by all of this CAGW stuff floating around. Thanks for clearing that up for me with your truly scientific post, Dr Knows-it-all!
21
‘Now, don’t try and tell me the winemakers are in the conspiracy.’
There is no denying that there was global warming at the end of last century and since then there has been a plateau in temperatures.
At the present time the grape growers in Europe have been hit hard by frosts, a clear regional cooling signal and a taste of whats to come.
There is a conspiracy of silence about this failed hypothesis, but eventually the facade will crumble and a great cheer will go up.
11
“There is a conspiracy of silence about this failed hypothesis, but eventually the facade will crumble and a great cheer will go up.”
In your dreams.
The “pause” in warming died last year.
[More conspiracy from Dr. Negative. Then present some evidence.] AZ
02
You do know there was an El Nino..
NATURAL, no human forcing.
I suspect you even know that the ONLY warming in the satellite era has come from El Nino events. (no CO2 warming signal at all)
Not even you can be that ignorant, not to know that….. it has to be an act.
A desperate plea for attention.
Still waiting for your empirical proof that CO2 causes warming of a our convective atmosphere..
Oh wait.. last time, you said you didn’t need/have any proof..
you just “BELIEVE”
21
A couple of strong El Nino has kept temperatures high, but that is about to change.
A typical combo of volcanic eruption, La Nina and quiet sun, should combine to bring an end to global warming.
20
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/25/france-faces-worst-wine-grape-harvest-since-1945
Dr No are you aware of cycle theory?
00
Westfield, NY located in the wine belt of western NY along the SE shore of Lake Erie.
Latitude:
Latitude:
42.32228°
Latitude of the center of Tasmania
-42.02942°
I drive by the miles of long established vineyards running along the SE shore of Lake Erie all the time. Nothing unusual at all about grapes being grown At either place. They began producing wine in that area during the 17th century.
00
Meanwhile in the US they no longer grow commercial citrus fruits in Citrus County, FL. The commercial Orange and Grapefruit groves started moving south in the 1980s. By 1990 they were gone.
20
An all of them cold area grapes.. or were you also ignorant of that.?
You do know that the Hobart is less distant from the equator than Bordeaux, don’t you?
Or were you ignorant of that, as well?
A common theme to your posts.
33
Hello AndyG55!
How’s the “pause” going?
22
Ignorant of El Nino effects as well, hey Dr know-nothing
Your posts seem to rely on wilful ignorance.
23
Tons of vinyards Along I-90 in western NY on the south shore of lake Erie. Ski areas not far SE of them in the lower tier.
11
Also, take a gander at this!:
“Champagne is in danger of losing its distinctive flavour and fizz because of climate change — but warmer temperatures are taking English sparking wine from strength to strength. Champagne producers are frantically researching new grape varieties amid fears that higher temperatures will cause a slump in production within decades because of a surge in fungal, viral and parasitic diseases on vines. A heatwave in 2003, when France baked in record summer temperatures, caused alarm in the Champagne region as production fell by half because grapes dried up and lost acidity, an essential property for the wine to age properly and develop its aromas.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/06/climate-change-threatens-champagne—but-is-a-boost-for-english/
Even the [snip] and the [snip] are in on it too.
[You’re risking being told the truth, which you probably will not like. But I’ll approve this and watch what happens. I will not allow the derogatory terms you used, however. Jo has standards for commenting and you should read them.] AZ
02
Yes, 2003 was a heat wave. Its called a WEATHER event.
But still many of France’s record temperature date back to the 1940s, when urban heating was much less and CO2 was lower.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_extreme_temperatures_in_France
This year, the French vines were also hit by a WEATHER event
https://www.thewinecellarinsider.com/2017/04/devastating-frost-bordeaux-90-vineyards-damaged/
21
Those frosts reached far down into Spain as well, but THANKFULLY they then had a nice WARM summer, so the grapes that made it through are good.
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/08/07/inenglish/1502093320_355073.html
“Frost in the spring destroyed between 40% and 60% of all wine production in areas with small but high-quality harvests in the north and northeast of Spain. In the Rioja Alta region, losses were estimated at more than 50%.”
WEATHER.. learn to tell the difference !!!
11
‘It is only in recent years that England’s wine industry has started to flourish.’
Exactly the same thing happened during the Medieval Warm Period, but with the approach of the LIA in the 13th century it all came to a sorry end.
Get a grip Doc, its the end of the world as we know it and Australian wines will jump ahead in leaps and bounds.
00
Remember the children’s story about the little boy who cried wolf?
51
Not BOM directly
“Oops! Climate Cultist Destroys Own Position”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/23/oops-climate-cultist-destroys-own-position/
31
“Brilliant Summation of Why the Far Left’s Agenda is Doomed”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/09/brilliant-summa.html#comments
51
And
“It can no longer be denied that ‘global institutions’ are in trouble.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/09/it-can-no-longe.html
51
Not the first time a non-white has to explain the obvious to white people how they are being conned and fooled by other whites. I sometimes wonder if Western civlisation actually deserves to be saved from its own doom. But then again the alternative is probably far worse.
31
Another Ian –
this is what I excerpted from the Australian Inquirer piece, but there is a lot more in the article:
23 Sept: The Australian: Inquirer: Technology advances push climate debate in new directions
Confidence is rising in two key aspects of healthy climate scepticism. First, climate models have run “hot” and been wrong in predicting the speed and extent of warming. Second, the extended slowdown in the rate of warming since the turn of the century was real.
The jury is out on whether the so-called pause has ended but the bigger looming battle is whether machine learning and artificial intelligence will challenge the models on which much of the world’s climate understanding is built.
The British Met Office announced this week that temperature rises did slow for the 15 years to 2014.
More remarkable was a paper published in Nature Geoscience, by a team of international climate scientists, that says climate models have been “running hot”…
A report on the findings, also published in Nature, says the implications of the new research for global policymakers are significant…
The findings, together with the pause — which took place against a background of sharply rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere — and the failure of climate models to predict it, leave a question mark over exactly how sensitive the climate is to rising levels of carbon dioxide.
The issue of climate sensitivity remains hotly debated, as is the role of natural cycles, particularly in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans…
A paper by Geli Wang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, examines natural cycles to try to answer the key question of whether natural events or carbon dioxide are mainly responsible for driving temperatures.
“Causality analysis in climate change is an active and challenging research area that remains highly uncertain,” the paper says.
“The IPCC advocates that human activity is the most important driving force of climate change, while some researchers have argued that natural forces might be the main cause.”…
One paper, by John Abbot published in GeoResJ, uses a series of historic temperature proxy data sets such as tree rings to project what 20th-century warming would have been if there had not been an industrial revolution. Abbot found the IPCC methods over-estimate the role of human carbon dioxide emissions in temperature increase by a factor of six…
The findings of the Abbot paper, co-authored by Jennifer Marohasy, are supported by other international research…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/technology-advances-push-climate-debate-in-new-directions/news-story/45067d6c382af0378271b28dfe463f28
Lewis p Buckingham in a reply says Graham Lloyd is the compiler. it’s possible it is only online and not in the paper.
20
ABC was pushing the Airport temp this morning:
Records start to tumble in NSW as fire threat worsens
Illawarra Mercury-19 hours ago
Wilcannia Airport in northwestern NSW was the first site in the state to cross a record 40 degrees so early in the warming season.
‘Phenomenal’: Sydney sweats through one of the hottest September nights on record
The Sydney Morning Herald· 2h ago
BoM: Forecasts: Wilcannia
Sunday 24 Sept: Max 30
Monday 25 Sept: Max 26…
Saturday 30 Sept: Max 23
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/wilcannia.shtml
40
Historic high heat here on the midcoast as I write. Of course, I can get no details for daily heat prior to 1965, a year when, coincidentally, we recorded our old record daily max for Sept. Our three warmest Septembers by max were prior to 1920, so I guess I’ll never get the full picture. But today is a genuine record breaker for temps post 1964. Record smasher, even.
It’s interesting as I browse through old records, checking percentiles etc, how so many of the warmer months and years by mean/max lie well back in the past. Nobbys had its warmest run back in the 1870s-1880s and that other coastal station, Yamba Pilot, had its warmest run from the 1880s to 1890s.
Yet Sydney shows a clear warming bias in recent years, with all of its nine warmest by mean max being post-2000. While our old Kempsey station closed after 2014 you’d think there’d be at least one recent year in the 95th percentile for mean max, and certainly in the 90th. But no, all the hotties were prior to 1920, even if the new airport station is taken into account. I think if I sat down with a calculator I’d find a bit of a warming bias post 1980 in comparison to the previous three or four decades. But I couldn’t be bothered. Climate does change, after all.
In Sydney, climate has a special way of changing. As Orwell wrote in his little known work UHI Farm, all thermometers are equal but some thermometers are more equal than others.
50
“In Sydney, climate has a special way of changing. As Orwell wrote in his little known work UHI Farm, all thermometers are equal but some thermometers are more equal than others.”
Mosomoso,
Please consider that concept\reality of ‘temperature’ local or global Can never be some physical thing, as the purveyors of Clim-catastrophe, SCAM you into! Temperature is not a ‘thing’ but only “measurement” of sensible heat of local mass.
Once you combine average, or determine what is the reference to the claimed ‘anomaly’ in ‘temperature’, you have discarded all meaning of such actual measurement!
This discarded is now ‘the only’, that can be promoted by Clim catastrophist for religious\political\financial gain!
Please keep laughing like hell!
31
Didn’t Orwell write: ‘Original thermometer data ‘hot,’
ACORN thermometer data ‘hotter’?’
60
I think that was in Homage to Geothermia, the book he dedicated to Tim Flannery. I have the only copy, which is for sale. Will consider offers over ten thousand dollars and will throw in ten thousand Geodynamics shares.
50
Mosomo
The big problem with thermometers is that some are more sensitive than others.
Perhaps they catch that sensitivity from humans working near them.
KK
41
High night temperatures are exclusively due to the Heat Island Effect. Sydney is a prime example.
The IPCC stated that “it is well-known that compared to non-urban areas urban heat islands raise night-time temperatures more than daytime temperatures.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island
21
it’s warm here today midcoast NSW, warmer than winter, but not as warm as it will be in summer.
Can I have weather presenting job now please?
42
Red thumb not from me Dennis but you never used “unprecedented ” or “warmest on record” so no you aren’t qualified for the job.
71
spinning as usual:
23 Sept: Shepparton News: Crop yields set to drop
Winter crop production in NSW is predicted to drop by almost 50 per cent after the state suffered through a dry winter and ***severe frosts, the Federal Government’s agriculture forecaster has warned.
But NSW is not the only affected area, with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences’ latest prediction for 2017-18 suggesting ***below average rainfall is expected to drive the whole country’s winter crop production down by almost 40 per cent…
ABARES chief commodity analyst Peter Gooday: ‘‘The decrease for winter crop production largely reflects an expected fall in yields from the exceptionally high yields of 2016-17,’’ Mr Gooday said.
‘‘According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, ***spring rainfall will likely be around average in most cropping regions.’’
While the forecast is for a 39 per cent decrease in production across the country, ***that figure remains two per cent above the 10-year average to 2015-16.
http://www.sheppnews.com.au/rural/2017/09/23/111163/crop-yields-set-to-drop
21 Sept: ABC: Carrot glut prompts Queensland producer to open farm gate and let public take their pick
ABC Radio Brisbane By Jessica Hinchliffe
Alice Gorman from Kalfresh Vegetables, south-west of Brisbane, said optimum growing conditions this season had also resulted in large crop yields…
22 Sept: ABC: Record low rain in central-west NSW forces farmers to tear up ruined crops
By Nadia Daly
The Parkes farmer is like many in the central-west region of New South Wales who have been delivered a deadly duo of record low rain over winter and ***severe, frequent frost over the past few months…
The ***frost and dry winter mean most of the plants have not produced enough of the precious seeds from which canola oil is extracted.
“All those little pods have been ***frosted so they’re shrivelled like a pea pod that hasn’t grown out,” he says, holding one of the flower-topped stems…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-22/central-west-nsw-farmers-tear-up-ruined-crops/8970142
30
Apparently Labor MP Tanya Plibersek commented that coal fired power stations are unreliable because they are always needing repairs carried out.
ABC Insiders
ps: I did not watch the programme.
82
Left wing love in is all the insiders program is .
61
Barry hates the Denialati and the show is very distorted, not worth watching.
40
Yes. I agree. Too many right wingers like Gerard Henderson, Michael sutchbury etc
21
Do you not see the left wing bias?
I’m of the left and can see it in plain sight.
00
Amongst the snow covered hills around Mt Hotham there is a fire burning from a lightning strike last night , problem they have is how do you put a fire out in the snow covered hills but I have to wonder why bother it’s not going to go far .
51
Vertussy has the hide of a to Megalodon to put out this rubbish published in the ‘Guardian’ and what’s more the intellect to match.
GeoffW
72
The Guardian that recently reported a few weeks ago that (summer not mentioned) a Russian LNG tanker had set a record sailing with no ice breaker escort at record speed to its destination, because of climate change and melting sea ice.
I checked, the tanker happens to be new and is itself an icebreaker, ARC3 design.
113
Well spotted Dennis, an icebreaker – a mere technicality hey.
Regards GeoffW
41
So, the sea ice was normal was it?
Give me a break!
22
Nope, Arctic sea ice is still far above normal for the Holocene.
Its still in the top decile extent of the last 10,000 years.
Or do you think “normal” was the extreme highs of the Little Ice Age and the late 1970s?
That would be a very ignorant form of climate change denial, if you though that.
32
Well said Andy!!
KK
11
The Guardian also noted:
“Simon Boxall, an oceanographer at the University of Southampton, said that shipping companies were making a “safe bet” in building ships in anticipation that the northern sea route will open up. “Even if we stopped greenhouse emissions tomorrow, the acceleration in the loss of Arctic ice is unlikely to be reversed,” he said.
“We’ve been able to sail through the north-west passage for several years now but the northern passage, which goes past Russia, has opened up on and off since 2010. We’re going to see this route being used more and more by 2020.
“The irony is that one advantage of climate change is that we will probably use less fuel going to the Pacific.”
The extent of Arctic ice fell to a new wintertime low in March this year after freakishly high temperatures in the polar regions, and hit its second lowest summer extent last September.”
So, don’t try and be cute by selectively interpreting the facts.
12
Again, the ignorance of climate history
Do you really DENY that Arctic sea ice levels are in the top decil of the last 10,000 years.
And that the only time they have been higher is during the EXTREME HIGH EXTENT of the LIA and late 1970’s?
Wilful denial/ignorance of natural climate change, because that is all you have.
12
Sea ice is a natural variable.
https://sunshinehours.net/category/arctic-sea-ice/
00
22 Sept: LonelyPlanet: Tom Stainer: Winter is definitely coming – it’s already snowing in northern Spain
But it’s a different story in parts of northern Spain where snow has fallen this week, much earlier in the season than normal.
PHOTO: The Pyrenees are already blanketed in snow
A mass of cold air means that the mercury has plummeted in the Pyrenees and in mountainous regions of Cantabria, leaving the landscape blanketed in white…
Daytime temperatures have reached around 20 degrees, cooler than average for the time of year, and have dropped as low as -10 overnight..
https://www.lonelyplanet.com/news/2017/09/22/already-snowing-northern-spain/
70
23 Sept: SMH: Fergus Hunter: Exclusive: Government denies claims it knocked back Chinese climate change offer and reveals ‘joint action plan’
The Turnbull government rejected a landmark Chinese invitation to issue a formal joint statement on climate change earlier this year, Greenpeace has claimed, saying Australia vetoed an unprecedented step in the Asian power’s emerging international role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
But the Australian government has denied the claim and revealed the two countries’ energy departments were working on a “joint action plan” on climate change as part of their commitments under the Paris agreement…
Greenpeace East Asia senior climate policy adviser Li Shuo: “It was clearly the intention from the Chinese side to build up international climate momentum. I think the proposed bilateral statement was part of that effort to send a signal back to the rest of the world and primarily the US.”…
Seizing the opportunity of American withdrawal, Mr Xi’s regime has assumed a more prominent international role on climate change, stepping up co-operation with other countries and pursuing domestic efforts that include a national emissions trading scheme, ***cancelling dozens of coal-power projects and rapid development renewable power…
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-denies-claims-it-knocked-back-chinese-climate-change-offer-and-reveals-joint-action-plan-20170920-gyl3j5.html
23 Sept: Xinhua: China hopes U.S. cautious on trade restrictions
China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Saturday that it hoped the United States would be cautious with the use of restrictive trade measures after a U.S. trade agency claimed that imported solar products could hurt domestic manufacturers.
The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) said Friday that it had determined that increasing crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell imports could threaten the domestic industry, and its investigation would move to a remedy phase…
The ITC claim will do nothing to facilitate the sound and balanced development of the U.S. solar industry, but only increase uncertainties on global solar products trading, Wang said.
“The free circulation of solar products helps with reduction of green house gas emissions and improves the global climate. Protecting free trade in this field is a shared responsibility of all countries and is in the common interests of all parties,” he said.
Wang expressed his hope that U.S. investigators would abide by World Trade Organization rules and use restrictive trade measures cautiously.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-09/23/c_136632504.htm
30
23 Sept: EconomicTimesIndia: PTI: Developed world must help less fortunate ones on climate change: Sushma Swaraj
UNITED NATIONS: External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj today said the challenge posed by climate change requires more “serious action than talk” and asked the leaders of the developed world to help the less fortunate ones through technology transfer and Green Climate Financing.
Addressing the UN General Assembly (UNGA), Swaraj said that it was not just mere coincidence that the world has witnessed hurricanes, earthquakes, rains that inundate storms which terrify…
“Nature sent its warning to the world even before the world’s leadership gathered in New York at the United Nations through Harvey,” she said, adding that once the gathering of world leaders at the UNGA began, an earthquake struck Mexico and a hurricane landed in Dominica.
“We must understand, this requires more serious action than talk. The developed world must listen more carefully than others, because it has more capacities than others.
“It must help the less fortunate through technology transfer and Green Climate Financing – that is the only way to save future generations,” Swaraj said…
“When we inflict our greed upon nature, nature sometimes explodes. We must learn to live with the imperatives, cycles and creative urges of nature; in that lies, our own salvation,” she observed.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/environment/global-warming/developed-world-must-help-less-fortunate-ones-on-climate-change-sushma-swaraj/articleshow/60810667.cms
30
Well spotted Pat, Sushwa Swaraj, from the UN of course jumping in on the misfortunes of all those people from the Gulf of Mexico to the West Indies who have suffered so much at the hands of mother nature. Shame on her because all she wants to do is take advantage of their plight in order to promote her own (and the UN’s) political agenda. The situation on these Islands is a complex one, for example many of the places destroyed are retirement complexes for the wealthy. For the most part these people will have to take care of themslves. Many others are poor Island people who will have lost everything and will need all the help they can get from the outside world. Whatever else they need I very much doubt that ‘technology transfer and Green Climate Financing’ will be of any use to these people. Regards GeoffW
30
behind paywall; perhaps someone with access can excerpt any worthwhile bits:
24 Sept: UK Sunday Times: Nigel Hawkes: Climate change predictions — what went wrong?
Climate scientists have admitted their estimates of global warming were wrong. So can we all chill out now? Not quite
As egg-on-face moments go, it was a double-yolker. Last week a group of climate scientists published a paper that admitted the estimates of global warming used for years to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on non-carbon energy sources were, er, wrong.
Being wrong is not a criminal offence, especially in science, where in the long run almost everything turns out to be wrong, but the global warmers have adopted such a high-and-mighty tone to anyone who questions them that for sceptics this was pure joy.
The world may still be doomed, but it is not quite as doomed as the climatologists have repeatedly told us.
The admission was overdue acknowledgment of something that has been obvious for years. Despite the climate models…
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news-review/climate-change-predictions-what-went-wrong-78ckkbx2f
60
behind paywall. hope someone will excerpt the best bits:
24 Sept: UK Sunday Times: Climate believers won’t go cool on global warming, they’ve an industry to support
by Rod Liddle
If you find a spare moment this weekend, check out the online biography of Professor Michael Grubb. He is a busy and hitherto (one would hope) important man.
Professor of climate change policy at University College London. Editor-in-chief of something called Climate Policy — hurry, hurry while stocks last. Adviser to the energy regulator Ofgem. Member of the government’s climate change committee. Adviser to the Germans on something to do with climate and to the European parliament’s exciting “progressive economy initiative”. And more, much more besides.
It’s a wonder Mikey even has time to step outside and see how the weather is looking, so feted has he been on account of his unquestionable knowledge about…
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/climate-believers-wont-go-cool-on-global-warming-theyve-an-industry-to-support-x0kbgcjn2
30
24 Sept: Herald Sun: Patrick Carlyon: Warnings of armageddon have become boring
If a collision with “Planet X” sounded a bit unscientific, at least Prof Daniel Rothman has real-life credentials. He’s from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He reckons the world is set to end, too. At least his vision offers time to find out which Ugg Boot will melt Sophie Monk’s heart on The Bachelorette…
Most of us cannot dispute his claims about 310 gigatons (an awful lot) of carbon going into the oceans and being the trigger for ecological disasters (bad stuff). Rothman hedged his bets, of course. It could happen, he said — over a long time. Naturally, he arrived at worst-case scenarios — the five previous examples of mass extinction in Earth’s history. Of course, it wasn’t properly explained that these mass extinctions are little understood. Nor did anyone choose an optimistic take — that the Earth has, on average, suffered one apocalypse every 100 million years. They’re longer odds than the horses that race against Winx.
As Rothman talked us through different versions of disaster, other scientists announced their climate change modelling had been overbaked. Actual temperature rises since 2000 — versus projected temperature rises — had diverged. The models had been “on the hot side”. Prof Michael Grubb said “we were in a better place than we thought”, citing economist JM Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my mind.”…
The place of facts — when science blends with ideology and politics — gets muddled. Facts have tripped Al Gore and the modern godfather of doomspeak, Paul Ehrlich, who predicted the end of aquatic life in a decade — many decades ago. Ehrlich has since tried to explain why his predictions are often proved absurd: “When you predict the future, you get things wrong.”…
The world has wanted to be terrified since the first copy dropped of the Bible’s Revelation. The environment is only the latest backdrop to the horror movie thinking…READ ALL
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/patrick-carlyon/warnings-of-armageddon-have-become-boring/news-story/370a255c97e753eb446c61c0c6c022c2
30
more of the never-ending exploitation of the weather:
23 Sept: NPR: Simulating The Bodily Pain Of Future Climate Change
by Lisa Feldman Barrett
(Lisa Feldman Barrett is a professor of psychology at Northeastern University and the author of How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain)
Close your eyes and imagine a beautiful spring day in the forest. In your mind’s eye, try to see tall, green trees and smell the aroma of blooming flowers. Can you hear the gentle breeze rustling the leaves above you?
Most people can conjure up this mental scene without much effort, at least for a few moments.
Now, imagine that the temperature rockets upward. It’s 120 degrees Fahrenheit. Try to produce, in your mind, the discomfort you’d experience under that scorching sun. I don’t mean just the idea of being hot — actually try to feel the physical sensations of stifling, smothering heat. Can you invoke these feelings on demand?
Most people cannot…
Blame your brain wiring…
This neural limitation, I suggest, is a key reason why more people aren’t terrified by climate change…
Today, we have politicians who make policies or pass laws that deny or worsen the effects of climate change. I’m suggesting that these actions are due, in part, to a failure of simulation…
At the very least, when climate change contributes to the next record-setting hurricane that devastates one of our nation’s cities, Congress should not debate hurricane relief while safe and comfortable in the Capitol building. No, our lawmakers should consider flying directly into the disaster zone to convene while standing in the floodwaters, surrounded by wreckage. They would directly experience the consequences of climate change in the same way that their constituents do…
http://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2017/09/23/552340651/simulating-the-bodily-pain-of-future-climate-change
40
She should have added a third choice; imagine standing in the snow in inadequate clothing and no shoes. How would that feel?
50
Chully in New Zealand
51
I remember seeing children in that state in Reading in England when I was a child…appalling.
20
She obviously hasn’t lived in Australia in the summer, or in the Arabian Gulf in summer. She wouldn’t need to imagine heat…it’s the norm and there for experiencing every year.
50
Actually…correction…we didn’t quite make it to 40C the last two summers but certainly have in years like 2009 in these parts.
40
If you do not understand the concepts of Typology or astrotheology and comparative religion i might as well fart in the wind
11
sincerely sorry about the damage, but that’s no excuse for
this kind of talk:
23 Sept: United Nations: ‘To deny climate change is to deny a truth we have just lived’ says Prime Minister of storm-hit Dominica
“I come to you straight from the front line of the war on climate change,” Roosevelt Skerrit said in an emotional address to the General Assembly’s annual general debate.
He said he made the difficult journey from his storm-battered country “because these are the moments for which the United Nations exists!” …
Mr. Skerrit said that warmer air and sea temperatures have permanently altered the climate between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. Heat is the fuel that takes ordinary storms – “storms we could normally master in our sleep – and supercharges them into a devastating force.
The most unfortunate reality, he said, is that there is little time left to reverse damages and rectify this trajectory. “We need action and we need it now,” he said.
“The stars have fallen, Eden is broken. The nation of Dominica has come to declare an international humanitarian emergency.”
He concluded by urging ownership and responsibility for perpetuating harm that desperately begs attention: “Let it spark a thousand points of light, not shame.”…
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57704#.WccRQ-RrzIU
23 Sept: Xinhua: Island states voice concern about climate change at UN General Assembly
Prime Minister Allen Michael Chastanet of Saint Lucia, in the eastern Caribbean, appeared to speak for many islands, expressing sadness over the devastation wrought on the Caribbean by recent hurricanes and dismay over the “silence of many and the weak acknowledgement” of others on the crisis.
“For small island states like my own in the Caribbean region, the promise of the United Nations is being tested today more than ever,” he said. “The world is experiencing extraordinary change at a breathtaking pace — change that is reshaping the way we live, the way we work, our planet and the very nature of peace and security.”…
Chastanet welcomed the leadership of France, China and Germany on climate change issues, and asked the global community to remember “we exist in one global ecosystem.”
Prime Minister Jose Ulisses Correia e Silva of Cabo Verde, small islands about 570 km off the western coast of the African country of Senegal, said: “Each island that disappears because of climate change will be a nightmare for humanity.”…
“If there have always been hurricanes, the bad news is that with climate change they tend to be more frequent, more cruel and more destructive,” (Prime Minister Jose Ulisses Correia e Silva of Cabo Verde) said…
King Tupou VI of Tonga, an archipelago in the South Pacific Ocean, directly south of Samoa, called for the appointment of a Special Representative on Climate and Security to ensure that the UN system has the appropriate tools to respond effectively and efficiently to climate change as an existential threat and a mounting security challenge for SIDS and the entire international community.”
“Enhanced accessibility to modern and clean sustainable energy services, energy efficiency, and the use of economically viable and environmentally sound technology and research, play a critical role in our sustainable development,” he said…
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-09/23/c_136631571.htm
20
Nice bit of moral blackmail, except that I don’t believe them.
70
It’s as if there was no climate before the year 2,000.
Isn’t there a forum where the operators of this scam can be brought to account?
What’s happening is immoral, unjustified and unscientific.
We need to get out of the U.N. for a start. It is taking our cash which serves no good purpose and also allows the black hand in Australia to manipulate or government processes in a sneaky underhanded fashion.
We need a campaign to secede and cut away the yoke of slavery.
61
it always comes down to shilling for wind and solar:
21 Sept: TheEconomist: There is still no room for complacency in matters climatic
New estimates of permissible carbon dioxide emissions notwithstanding
IN JUNE Christiana Figueres, the UN’s former climate chief who helped broker the Paris agreement in 2015, warned that the world has “three years to safeguard our climate”. It was a hyperbolic claim, even then. New research makes it seem even more of one today…
Under budget?
These results are controversial. Those who have been sceptical about the case for strong action on climate change have fallen on them as evidence that models such as those used in CMIP5 have fundamental flaws…
At the same time, certain climate scientists have raised questions about the Oxford work. Some have doubts about the “resetting” of the CMIP5 results to the measured data for 2015. Another worry is that a number of different data sets claim to trace global temperature from the 1870s to now…
There are uncertainties, then, in both models and data, and no single study should be expected, of itself, to reset the world’s plans. Even if the Oxford paper’s new budgets were copper-bottomed truths, though, they would hardly provide the respite they might seem to. No one expected the constraints of the previous 1.5°C budget to be met, and meeting the new constraints would still be challenging…
All this said, big cuts in emissions seem more plausible now than they did in Paris, as the technology of renewable energy improves…
At a British auction on September 11th offshore-wind power came in at a record low price of £57.50 ($76) per megawatt hour (though it still enjoys a subsidy). China has recently announced that it will stop building petrol-driven cars.
Solar energy is already competitive with fossil fuels in sunny places and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research reckons it could make up 30-50% of the world’s electricity by 2050, up from 2% now—and do so without government handouts. The recent history of solar power has seen it routinely surpass the estimates of such experts…
https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21729423-new-estimates-permissible-carbon-dioxide-emissions-notwithstanding-there
31 Aug: Shell Climate Change blog: Chasing electrification
David Hone – Chief Climate Change Advisor for Shell
One of the important changes that needs to take place in the global energy system as it heads towards much lower emissions is electrification. This is the increasing use of electricity as final energy (i.e. the energy we all use to deliver services) rather than fossil fuels, such as natural gas for cooking and gasoline for mobility. According to the IEA, electricity made up nearly 19% of final energy use in 2015, with the bulk of the 81% that isn’t electricity being oil products, natural gas, coal and biomass. The Shell scenario work on a net zero emissions world (LINK) indicates that electricity should exceed 50% of final energy use.
Over the course of the last few decades, electrification of final energy has moved relatively slowly, at around 2 percentage points per decade (i.e. it was about 16.5% in 2005 and 14.4% in 1995). This rate of change is far below what is necessary to reach 50+% during the second half of the century – in fact, at the current rate it would take over one and half centuries to get above 50%. Therefore, the rate of electrification of the final energy system has to approximately triple over the coming few years for the Paris goals to be approached. At the same time, overall expansion of the energy system also has to be catered for, which might see a near doubling in final energy demand, even as electrification brings considerable efficiency gains.
Today, global electricity production stands at some 25,000 TWh per annum, representing ~19% of final energy demand. The trends described above indicate electricity production rising to at least 100,000 TWh per annum during the second half of the century, or the addition of ~1,400 TWh of generation per annum from now on. The 3.3 GW Hinkley Point nuclear power station being constructed in the UK operating at full capacity for the entire year would add about 29 TWh. The likely progression probably won’t be linear, so good progress would still require some 800-1100 TWh added each year in the near term. That’s still at least 30 Hinckley Point projects brought on line each year.
This new electricity production shouldn’t contribute additional emissions to the atmosphere, so many will look for it to come from wind and solar. Total global generation from wind and solar was around 1,300 TWh in 2016, but the added generation from 2015 to 2016 was 208 TWh (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy) against total added electricity generation of 600 TWh. Total added generation in recent years has average around 500 TWh, well short of the 800-1100 TWh mentioned above…READ ON
(ONE COMMENT ONLY)
https://blogs.shell.com/2017/08/31/chasing-electrification/
10
Jo
Whilst the Technical Advisory Forum (TAF) may have been handpicked by the BOM, the TAF report does make several important recommendations and the following caught my eye:
• [p.xii] Engage an appropriately qualified statistician to: (1) advise the Bureau on the experimental design and implementation of the project to update the screens at ACORN-SAT weather stations with the goal of quantifying any systematic effects of the new screens on temperature measurements; and (2) support the Bureau in modelling and analysing uncertainty in the data and assisting in producing appropriate estimates of standard error.
• [p.8] The Forum acknowledges the Bureau’s commitment and progress in making the ACORN-SAT dataset and the underlying source code available through the Bureau’s website. This has been demonstrated by the Bureau’s decision to implement algorithms originally programmed in FORTRAN in the now more widely used Python computing language, and to make this Python code available on request to the public. To support full transparency, the Forum recommends ensuring the ACORN-SAT source dataset version used by the Bureau to create ACORN-SAT is available publicly and in full through Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM) and the Climate Data Online portal, together with the code as actually used.
• [p.10] The Bureau’s ongoing commitment to extending Australia’s long-term temperature record to include pre-1910 data, including engaging a leading Australian expert on the recovery and analysis of historical data.
• [p.11] The Forum recommends the work on pre-1910 Australian climate data be made available to the public on the Bureau’s website…This work also provides the basis for the Bureau to consider the potential to incorporate pre-1910 data in the ACORN-SAT dataset.
10
Gee Pat, doesn’t the free market understand cost benefit analyses? Why don’t they want to invest in coal or nuclear? Are you implying they are stupid?
23
“Why don’t they want to invest in coal or nuclear?”
Without subsidies.. over 600 new coal fired power stations being built around.
cost benefit ??… solar and wind.. ALL cost to the tax-payer, very little benefit most of the time.
But you knew that didn’t you.
22
typo fix…
over 600 new coal fired power stations being built around the world.
Many using Australian coal. 🙂
22
I do know this:
“The Australian government’s strident criticism of Westpac for not financing the Adani Carmichael coal mine is out of step with the economics. As the cost of renewable energy falls and its adoption increases, fossil fuels are becoming a riskier investment.
It’s not just Westpac. This shift is reflected right across the finance industry. The big four Australian banks have all declined to finance this mine, as have many large international financial institutions.
The Commonwealth Bank quit as the project’s financial adviser in August 2015. NAB ruled out financing the mine in September 2015. ANZ effectively ruled out financing in October 2015 and again, more firmly, in December 2016.
Big overseas financiers Standard Chartered, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, Citi, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, JP Morgan Chase, Deutche Bank and BNP Baripas have also already abandoned or made clear their lack of support for the mine.
Adani’s coal was to be used to generate electricity in India, recently seen as the future for the product given China’s shift away from coal. But Indian demand for coal is slipping. Its new National Electricity Plan has non-fossil fuels rising from the current 30% to 56% of installed power capacity by 2027.
The Indian government itself now thinks it may not need any new coal power plants for at least a decade.”
12
“over 600 new coal fired power stations being built around the world.”
PLENTY of extra loverly CO2 to feed everyone.
Get over it ! 🙂
12
OOPS, seems like I was incorrect.
That should be 1600 new coal fire power stations around the world. 🙂
http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/despite-paris-agreement-china-india-continue-build-coal-plants/
12
Please explain! What is a hardware card? Is that really the term used?
My understanding of the relevance of these cards lies in the software that is stored on them. While the cards themselves may be hardware, the term hardware card looks like a misnomer to me.
20
That’s the problem when all of them should be doing an exemplary job simply gathering the weather data and instead they freely admit they’ve really been managing climate data and they’re the best in the world at it. Take them at their word.
30
The old “global conspiracy” argument where the WMO is also part of the plan to establish world government.
You are implying a cast of thousands, most of them public servants, secretly committed to the cause.
Give me a break!
You’re dreamin.
32
Secretly?
How about “unknowingly”?
20
Unkowingly?
As they all sat there looking at the raw temperature readings and adding a fictitious amount of warming every time?
And nobody was aware that something fishy was taking place?
Even when they published both the raw and corrected values?
You’re still dreamin.
23
Everybody with any common sense has been aware of the data maleficence for quite a while.
You still choose to remain ignorant about it.
12
You mean like the one that climate gate revealed a tiny part of?
00
Is there something about their science that isn’t holding up to independent analysis?
10
“For the past decade or more, we’ve been bombarded with the message from a vocal but powerful minority within Parliament and the broader community that the switch to renewable energy has made Australia uncompetitive, crippled our industry and driven power prices higher.
The real issue is that, fundamentally, they don’t believe climate change is real or that humans have adversely affected the planet.
Having spent so long denying science and rejecting the overwhelming body of evidence, they’re now being forced to ignore economics; that renewables have become a cheaper longer term power source.
Coal is the future, they argue. Coal-fired generators have no future here. That’s simply not a view shared by the power generators, whose primary motivation is to turn a profit and stay in business, or the banks who must finance them.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/the-truth-about-soaring-power-prices/8979860
32
Dr No.
No
No
41
And let’s not forget that Golden Sacks is pushing renewables.
Simply for one reason.
It loves sacks of gold.
Renewables in all forms are an appalling environmental mess as well as being Ultra Super Critically expensive.
The manipulation of the poor suffering taxpayers continues under the guise of do_gooderism.
KK
31
Please provide a paper that proves empirically that CO2 causes warming in a convective atmosphere.
If not, then stop taking your hallucinogenics and get back to reality, Dr Nothing
33
AndyG55, you’re not related to Malcolm (“show me the empirical evidence”) Roberts are you?
Please convince me that coal is a more attractive investment than renewables.
33
So, absolutely nothing to support the very basis of the mindless AGW religion. …
….. except evasion.
Funny about that.
Take away subsidies and mandates, no-one would want un-reliables.
33
So you are happy to invest in fossil fuels?
I am happy to invest in renewables, like most sensible people.
Follow the money!
12
So as the subsidy is there for you to sponge off, hey.
22
Game over.
Vertussy is truly flailing his arms, hands and fanny while ignoring the issues directed at BOM.
Vertussy’s irrational responses and consensus logic as his official response against agency mishandling temperature equipment means BOM is mishandling their temperature equipment, temperature data, databases, etc.
22
“What’s the difference between the guardian and a PR agency?” Maybe the BOM should employ Bell Pottinger then. I see that company is doing really well of late…:D
10
How to quantify the one second problem?
It applies to both minima and maxima. Therefore it is reflected twice in the daily variation.
Compare the “one second” variations with the variation with other methods of recording and there is your quantification base.
00
Hacks and cranks with an agenda “just asking questions”?
I think not, more like making stuff up.
10
Yawn….. Like making up the farce that CO2 causes warming , hey twotter.
Like the massive GISS “adjustments”… Just making up large amounts of non-data.
Like the whole silly CO2-Hatred farce
JUST MAKING STUFF UP.
Zero empirical proof of CO2 causing warming in our convective atmosphere.
JUST MAKING STUFF UP.
12
Methinks the laddie doth protest too much.
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