The scandals do count. The Australian articles has got Minister Frydenbergs attention. The extensive collection of blog posts and the IPA Climate Change book show there is a deep well of material to fuel more articles. We have barely begun. Congratulations to Jennifer Marohasy. At least we will get a few more answers to questions we shouldn’t even have to ask.
The head of the Bureau of Meteorology, Andrew Johnson, has been asked by Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg to release extensive temperature data from a weather station in Victoria after requests from an independent scientist.
Dr Johnson has also agreed to meet with Jennifer Marohasy, a senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs, to discuss the integrity of the bureau’s temperature measurements as she pushes ahead with calls for a parliamentary inquiry.
The story of the “one second” records is potent: How many “hottest ever records” have been created thanks to new electronic equipment?
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology appears to have put in place a measurement system guaranteed to provide new record high and low temperatures,” she said in the letter.
Instead of the older-style mercury thermometers in which temperatures changed more slowly, the bureau has since the late 1980s installed electronic probes sensitive to rapid variations. “Just last Saturday (September 22), the Bureau of Meteorology announced a September record for Mildura, in northwestern Victoria, of 37.7C.
What we need is the absolute raw data. No editing, filtering or adjusting. We need to know what the equipment recorded, and every part of the trail that leads from the instrument to the reported number in the headline.
Banks, businesses, taxpayers get audited. Time for the BOM.
h/t Pat, Dave B.
THE BOM LIST grows — Scandal after scandal
- BOM Scandal: One second records in Australia — how “noise” creates history and a warming trend
- Another BOM scandal: Australian climate data is being destroyed as routine practice
- BOM scandal: “smart cards” filter out coldest temperatures. Full audit needed ASAP!
- BOM scandal heats up: Kininmonth, Watts, Nova quoted in The Australian “We audit banks, why not BOM?”
- Scandal: Australian Bureau of Meteorology caught erasing cold temperatures
- On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was “adjusted”).
- Two-thirds of Australias warming due to “adjustments” — according to 84 historic stations
- The mysterious BOM disinterest in hot historic Australian Stevenson screen temperatures
- The lost climate knowledge of Deacon 1952: hot dry summers from 1880-1910
- 1953 Headline: Melbourne’s weather is changing! Summers getting colder and wetter
- The mysterious lost hot Sunday in Bourke, did it really happen?
- Wow, look at those BOM adjustments – trends up by two degrees C!
- Australian BOM “neutral” adjustments increase minima trends up 50%
- Was the Hottest Day Ever in Australia not in a desert, but in far south Albany?!
- Hottest summer record in Australia? Not so, says UAH satellite data
- Mystery black-box method used to make *all new* Australian “hottest” ever records
- BOMs new data set, ACORN, so bad it should be withdrawn (954 min temps larger than the max!)
- Threat of ANAO Audit means Australia’s BOM throws out temperature set, starts again, gets same results
- Australian Temperatures in cities adjusted up by 70%!?
- NEW (this post) The BOM calls critics names, wails, and says it won’t answer questions from The Australian any longer.
Not the news!!!
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Cue dramatic music..BOM BOM BOMMMMM!
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7J2Jz_N6sk8
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Absolutely terrific news!
Well done Jennifer Marohasy and Joanne Nova!
I’ll be donating some chocolates on Monday!
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The Sydney record in Feb 2013 (iirc)
I saw the AWS summary next day. It said 45.3C
Somehow it was recorded as 45.8
Perhaps that one could be chased up as well ?
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Andy, I’m afraid they do not document their hand selection process, so the fact
quality assurancecherry-picking raises temps by half a degree, is not something you can bust them on.The more we shout fraud, the more they’ll complain on debilitating attacks and hate speech. Heck, even requiring them to answer some very polite simple questions is too much. The cause is so noble it makes BOM a corrupt pope ex cathedra. Or whatnot.
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Jo, you might find this interesting.
Obituary printed in the London Times – Interesting and sadly rather true.
Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense, who has been with us for many years.
No one knows for sure how old he was, since his birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red tape.
He will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:
– Knowing when to come in out of the rain;
– Why the early bird gets the worm;
– Life isn’t always fair;
– and maybe it was my fault.
Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don’t spend more than you can earn) and reliable strategies (adults, not children, are in charge).
His health began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but overbearing regulations were set in place. Reports of a 6-year-old boy charged with sexual harassment for kissing a classmate; Teens suspended from school for using mouthwash after lunch; and a teacher fired for reprimanding an unruly student, only worsened his condition.
Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the job that they themselves had failed to do in disciplining their unruly children.
It declined even further when schools were required to get parental consent to administer sun lotion or an aspirin to a student; but could not inform parents when a student became pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.
Common Sense lost the will to live as the churches became businesses; and criminals received better treatment than their victims.
Common Sense took a beating when you couldn’t defend yourself from a burglar in your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.
Common Sense finally gave up the will to live, after a woman failed to realise that a steaming cup of coffee was hot. She spilled a little in her lap,and was promptly awarded a huge settlement.
Common Sense was preceded in death, by his parents, Truth and Trust, by his wife, Discretion, by his daughter, Responsibility,and by his son, Reason.
He is survived by his 4 stepbrothers;
I Know My Rights
I Want It Now
Someone Else Is To Blame
I’m A Victim
Not many attended his funeral because so few realised he was gone.
If you still remember him, pass this on.
RIP.
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Uncommon sense?
61
Thanks for posting that Clive. Superb commentary. Damning generalised indictment. Makes one work to resist the urge to find the nearest bridge.
Thank God for islands of reason in the chaos.
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They could add the guilt trip being imposed on us for the actions of our ancestors – today’s politically correct ideals applied to yesterday’s decisions (eg so-called “invasion” day). I think of it as reverse anachronism.
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Thanks for that Clive Hoskin. I have seen it before but can’t remember where. It certainly shows how crazy and topsy turvy our ‘civilisation is.
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The learning of sense both common and uncommon starts at an early age, when I was 13 all I wanted was a girl with big tits, when I was 19 I found a girl with big tits. She turned out to be so predictable and boring that at age 25 all I wanted was a girl full of excitement. She turned out to be all over the place and I could not keep up with her craziness.Thus at age 35 I decide that I needed a girl with drive and ambition at 37 I found one. She turned out to be so ambitious that at age 45 she took every thing and all my money off me. So here I am much wiser and now I am looking for a girl with big tits. Some people take a lot of learning to get some sense into them.
.
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Prof Plimer on Sky’s Outsiders show likened BoM’s actions to a business that had promised a big profit but found that it was going to be a loss so they did some creative accounting. “Sackable offences in a business environment”, says Plimer and went on to strongly suggest that BoM’s fate should be no different.
[We cannot quote the exact words you used] Fly
20
Congratulations to Jo and Jennifer.
At the moment the media is flooded with ill founded climate alarmism which must sound real to the uninformed.
Trying to answer these comments is nigh on impossible but the present situation is very promising.
The top limb of the Climate Change tree is about to be subjected to very public criticism and everybody will see the branch fall all the way down.
The data mixing has been unscientific.
The statistical processing has been full of deliberate “oversights” and doesn’t comply with basic statistical analysis procedure.
The loss or destruction of original data is unforgivable and must carry a heavy penalty.
It is doubtful that the so called homogenization process has any scientific meaning or basis and is not a valid procedure. All records from different locations must always be retained and any attempt to amalgamated sites is likely done for a specific purpose more in line with politics than science.
KK
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Yes Congratulations to all the BOM Climate Team. I lot of detailed hard work has bee done on the BOM records. Congratulations also to Graham Lloyd and “The Australian”, who have run this story in the main stream media.
Jo’s blog spreads it to a further potential 60,000 readers.
Yes it is unforgivable. I doubt if we will see a penalty. I don’t think data retention is part of the BOM charter.
That is likely correct.
Bill Johnston did not use remote stations to find the site moves at Canberra airport. Analysis of the site records for Canberra airport itself proved to be much more powerful.
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/10/canberras-hottest-ever-september-record-due-to-thermometer-changes-and-a-wind-profiler/
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Government politicians, who control our taxes, need to earn our trust – something they rarely do.
Government meteorologists, who control our data, need to earn out trust, which they will never do until they are totally open and transparent, plus personally liable for the accuracy of their conclusions.
In Henry VIII’s reign it was considered in advisable for the lower orders and women to be allowed to read the Bible. The BOM has the same attitude, “trust me, you are all too stupid to understand, so I don’t have to explain anything.”
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Peter
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/06/so-what-happened-to-expertise-with-the-ipcc/
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That’s key. Know who they are and where they are, down to the office door number and their direct line. Remind them of this regularly. Being a minion in a large bureaucracy in no way bequeaths absence of responsibility, accountability or anonymity.
Shame the same can’t be applied to the purveyors and manufacturers of fake news rinsed in ideology, the MSM
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It is important to note that all of this clearly demonstrates how little quality control is being exercised.
For example, when the new platinum resistance thermometers were rolled out, the probe itself should have been cased in material which gave exactly the same thermal sensitivity and lag as the LIG thermometers that were being replaced.
The same is so with enclosures. The modern enclosures are very different to the old style Stevenson screen particularly in volume, but no doubt also in albedo. It is inevitable that these new enclosures would have different thermal sensitivity and lag compared to the older style screens being replaced.
As part of even the most basic quality control, there ought to have been many years of field research 9at least 5, preferably 10 years) where both types of equipment were being tested in parallel alongside one another, so as to ensure that the new system was replicating, as nearly as identically as possible, the older style equipment in terms of sensitivity and thermal lag.
This has become much more of an important issue as there has been a move away from truly rural siting, and towards siting close to or in urban developments, especially near large expanses of tarmac, and airports.
A passing jet plane disturbing airflow even for a very short period of time, can only lead to warming, never cooling. And this problem was not so severe when there were only propeller planes since exhaust gas/pressure wave is far less with a propeller plane than it is with a jet plane.
The new style equipment exacerbates the siting issues.
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For the politicians and those working at BOM it is a case of ‘QC what’s that’. This makes it even more imperative that a full and rigorous audit be carried out by people NOT employed in the public sector.
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.
All you need to do is run the new equipment parallel with the old for two years, and you will precisely know the differences, and be able to make precise allowances for them. Did they do that?
This is not rocket science….
R
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You make a very good point. How many people in the BOM, hold qualifications that are relevant to understanding electronic interference at the subatomic level?
The more accurate and sensitive your detection and measuring equipment is, the greater the chance you have of measuring electronic noise, and extraneous interference, rather than the signal you are expecting.
Are the new recording devices enclosed in a Faraday cage?
112
Maybe like Schrödinger’s cat .
51
You are wrong! Let me explain.
We have no clue how much the complicated quality control in place has been used to raise temps just inadvertedly or even on purpose by individuals capable of doing decisions on for example, which stations to include, which stations to drop, which measurements to fix, which to leave ‘unnoticed’.
The Threadbo case shows how readily BOM belittles problems and has a tendency to deny them, or when admitting some error, does not acknowledge the reporter.
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Who is wrong?
30
This article, linked at the bottom, sums up the problems with aging automatic weather stations:
Solar radiation screens play a key role in automatic weather stations (AWS) performances. In this work, screen ageing effects on temperature measurements are examined. Paired temperature observations, traceable to national standards and with a well-defined uncertainty budget, were performed employing two naturally ventilated weather stations equipped with identical sensors and different only for their working time. Three different tests were carried out employing different aged AWSs: a 5-year-old AWS (AWS5) was compared with a new device (AWS0), a 1 year old (AWS1) was compared with both a 3 years old (AWS3) and a new one devices (AWS00). Due to solar and weather conditions exposure a degradation of the screen reflective coating is evident for the older AWSs (5 and 3 years old) and so a qualitative estimation of how different conditions of ageing affect the temperature drift was done.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/29/aging-weather-stations-contribute-to-high-temperature-records/
John
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Jo,
I’ve been in Perth since July, I don’t think there has been 3 days in a row that I’ve not had to wear a jumper. Today it was 9.3 min, now it’s 14, with an apparent temp of (urk) 7.4! Only the lord knows what the apparent temp was this morning when the minimum struck!
It’s October fer goodness sake. Is it always this cold? Isn’t Perth supposed to be a hot place?
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Just for the record only 5 of the past 18 months (April 2017 – Sept 2017) in Perth (Perth Metro BOB site) have recorded above average maximum temps. And this October is shaping up as another below average maximum temp month. Mind you BOM will never tell you this info which means the MSM won’t tell you either. And BOM are now using thermometers with “electronic probes sensitive to rapid variations” which means that these more modern maximum temp measurements will almost certainly be higher than those recorded in the pre 1980’s. And BOM have the audacity to compare modern temp data with vintage temp data – very naughty!!!!!
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Typo – make that April 2016 – Sept 2017 – too much wine consumed.
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King Geo,
It pains me to say that you are wrong.
There is no such thing as “too much wine”.
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Point taken toorightmate – I will put the typos down to fatigue. Also I found another “fatigue-induced” typo – BOB should read BOM on line one but then again BOM’s temp data has a habit of BOBbing up rather than down, although ACORN was designed to BOB vintage temps down in the early 1900’s to make it look like temps rose significantly thereafter, ie in the mid to late 1900’s. A good example how to achieve GW via data adjustment. This is ABOMinable with ABOM meaning “Adjustment Bureau of Meteorology”.
20
I’m not as seem as you may drunk, but seriously the BOM are running out of tipple points regardless of the wining…..
20
In vino veritas
– so “more wine, more truth”?
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It pleases and reassures me to be reading interesting, articulate posts and comments alongside wine drinkers. So refreshing, thank you.
70
No comment from Jo then, must be all her fault since she’s trying to stop Global Warming activists – Maybe they took their global warming and went home leaving Perth colder than ever.
21
The last time I was in Perth, the locals were of a mind to proudly, and incessantly, tell me that Perth has a Mediterranean climate.
Perhaps the Mediterranean countries demanded to have it back?
51
A comedian in our midst 😀
Got a nice laugh from that one Rereke, thanks
20
Can we take it then that we have moved on from the former head of the BOM, Rob Vertussy “Poor BOM: Dangerous deniers, amateurs, attacking Australian Bureau of Meteorology, debilitating it by asking questions”
from your Sept 23rd blog. If so, very well done to Jennifer Marohasy and to you, Jo.
172
I suspect that somebody, who shall remain nameless, wrote a nice, polite, letter to Mr Vertussy, copied to the Minister responsible for the BOM, pointing out that those people who were, “attacking” the Bureau, were far from “deniers, and amateurs”, but were predominantly Scientists, and Engineers, and Mathematicians, and others who can see through the mathematical slights of hand, that the BOM are so proud of perpetrating.
Nobody likes such accusations coming to the attention of the public, especially given the proportion of public monies, in the form of taxation, that flows directly to the Bureau, a proportion of which, must, perforce, include salaries and other benefits.
21
Josh Frydenberg works for someone who intends to make billions from RETs. How critical will he be?
21
Could it be that Josh Frydenberg smells a rat and this will lead to a snowball effect and cause the government to do a 180 degree turnaround and scream out “Fake climate change!” or something like it, scrap the targets and subsidies for renewables, and encourage companies to build super-critical coal fired power stations? I know, I know; I’m probably just dreaming.
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Frydenberg is a Global Warming(TM) true believer isn’t he?
Any audit he allows will be for appearance only and the predetermined conclusion will be that everything is OK.
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Frydenberg is very proud to be the present MP for the electorate once represented by Sir Robert Menzies.
I wonder what Sir Robert would have to say about the energy crisis, BoM, etc?
60
Ultimately what matters is being re-elected. Right now rising energy prices and increasing energy supply risk have become big political issues and are causing notable economic damage. The coalition has very little to gain by me-to-ism with respect to renewable energy targets and the continuation of market distorting subsidies. To change direction though needs a trigger. A genuine review of the actions of the BoM and CSIRO in assessing and report Australian climate change may well provide such a trigger.
152
The Government has already said that they will not put at risk,the subsidies that they pay.For to do that they would risk the IRE of the windmill owners(super funds) and solar panel owners,plus all the other investors who have tipped money into the biggest PONZI in the history of the world.
91
It’s never a good business model to rely on subsidies or protection from market forces. Anyone who invests in such business should accept as a risk that those subsidies or regulations might some day be removed.
83
I think I remember from my high school commerce class that subsidies are used to assist new technologies to gain market penetration and that if there was demand over time then the subsidies would be slowly removed. If there was no take up and the product failed to provide the expected results then the subsidies stopped. It seems to me that ever increasing subsidies are being provided to support technology that even on the most basic assessment can never provide what it is expected to provide, cheap, reliable, consistent power day and night.
41
OK then so the government will not put at risk the companies that are relying more and more if not totally on renewables. But at what cost? The risk of the nation to the point it will close down many other businesses? Is that their solution? Kill off enough businesses to reduce the demand on electricity so that we won’t need to rely on base load as much as we do now? Tait could be perceived to be an act of sabotage.
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??? They don’t seem to worry about the ire of anyone when they are stealing from people’s pension funds or increasing taxes and charges at 5 times inflation or jamming private health insurance down our throats. I attribute it to government being run by Myers-Briggs F(feeling ) types instead of T (thinking). These nuts give us feely policies instead of good judgement as summed up in “its the right thing to do” instead of “its the BEST thing to do” as exemplified by the ABS survey subject supposedly being all about the feelings of a tiny 0.008 (0.8%) minority (beyond 3 sigma tail population) while ignoring the effects on the 99.2%. Only Myers-Briggs F’s would even contemplate anything so damaging. So it is with ‘climate change’ brought to you by those that can’t bear to hold a calculator lest their perceptions be shattered, but feel like it must be getting hotter because summer came again this/(last) year.
Some of this can probably be attributed to selection bias from the almost universal psychometric testing selecting for ‘soft skills’ ( b-m Extrovert, Intuition, Feeling, Perceiving) and against investigative traits ( b-m Introvert, Sensing, Thinking and Judging ) my apologies to ENFPs who Intuitivly Feel their Perception is right and aren’t afraid to (Extravertedly) say so.
30
If so, it will be fascinating to witness the Australian government summon the gumption to wriggle its way out of the enchained strait jacket of UN globalist ideology it has just reaffirmed and signed into, as it will be fascinating to see the BOM as the key pivot, a sacrificial beast on the altar of reason.
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The last Prime Minister of Australia that did that was dumped.
70
Lord Monckton warned that Tony Abbott was in danger over climate policy.
https://youtu.be/NG0WcjGHkEw
93
So true yet his warning fell on death ears. Even today most people deride Abbott despite the fact he did more good to the country in the shortest time possible than any other PM in history despite a hostile Senate. So it’s not his policies or political views that are the problem, although he of course was swayed to the wrong side a few times – after all that’s what most politicians do for a living. So the problem most people have with him has to be on a personal level. That sort of petty thinking proves Australia needs to have a big kick in the backside to wake them up, and so it will be when the crash and burn scenario plays out.
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Also when I ask people why they deride him the most common reply I get is he is stupid. Really? The guy who removed the carbon tax and mining tax, and then tried to undo many other bad and anti-Australian policies brought down by Rudd and Gillard but wqas blocked by the Senate? If that’s the sign of a stupid politician compared to the likes of Shorten and Turnbull then give me a whole party full of such “stupid” politicians any day!
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I liked Abbott as Pm, but his captain pick knighthood was Lame/stupid IMV.
33
The Knighthood RECOMMENDATION followed a request from Buckingham Palace to Commonwealth of Nations member countries, and Prince Phillip was nominated. PM Abbott was not in a position to explain at the time.
However, he did arrange for two only public service positions to be eligible for a knighthood award, Governors General and Defence Forces Chief. Both positions are in ceremonial terms attached to the Queen of Australia who is only our Queen when she is on our soil and at other times our permanent head of state is a Governor General.
Unlike the awards system of the past when Knights Bachelor (wife not a Lady) were handed out for political purposes as well as by community nominations.
52
Thank you, Dennis. When the Queen requests you to knight her husband, there is really not a lot one can do, certainly not refuse! I get tired of the old clichés; eating onions, winking and the Prince Phillip one in particular, to show how inept Tony was/is. Such trivial matters when compared with what that man, along with Peta Credlin, managed to achieve, much to the angst of Turnbull and the rest of the Black Hand bunch.
52
A man in the prime ministers position up against the 5th column is judged by whom a bloody knighthood is bestowed to seriously?
Tip to the general populace cease listening to the Marxist underlings and start investigating into anything the left tells you not to, you’ll be OK.
10
Abbott was picked as the most dangerous politician against the progressive elites from the moment he applied to get elected. From then onwards he has been a marked man, vilified where ever possible by most journalists; supported by the few game enough to do so. The progressives still fear him hugely and the bulk of the msm is back in action against him. Savva says it all. That’s not to say Abbott didn’t make a few huge errors beyond the minutiae worked up by the press.
20
Quote: What we need is the absolute raw data. No editing, filtering or adjusting.
I wouldn’t mind seeing their much vaunted world’s best practice data fiddling methods as well.
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Does Australia have a “Freedom of Information” act, whereby non classified information can be obtained by lay-persons? New Zealand does; and that might be the reason why New Zealanders are somewhat less susceptible to the sort of creative science that you guys seem to suffer.
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One fervently hopes so because the NZ MSM and NIWA work
tenaciouslyrelentlesslydamned hard at it.70
I don’t know Rereke. I remember your NZbom was taken to court to explain their temperature record, and so the government dropped the official temperature record.
I don’t know what happened to the court case after that.
72
The Court case resolved in favour of the NZ Government.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/10/24/how-niwa-added-lots-of-warming-in-new-zealand-and-got-away-with-it-so-far/
The Folks wanting to find out exactly how NIWA adjusted their temperature readings have been thwarted repeatedly.
BOM was meant to do a peer review of NIWA’s methods…. We Kiwis are forbidden for finding out what was in BOM’s report.
https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2015/12/niwa-shuts-door-but-says-were-open/#more-22690
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NIWA won and went after the other parties with a big stick, seeking costs. I can’t remember how much they sought but needless to say, a lot of heads were pulled in and mouths silenced.
20
The BoM should be only in the business of supplying raw data to private bodies, the public and academia and those bodies alone should be responsible for interpreting it. Perhaps we could allow the BoM to run the raw data through some proper validated computer models to make the standard short term weather forecasts out to 7 days or whatever (eg 70% chance of rain next Wednesday, wind and max and min temps).
The BoM’s reputation at honest handling of data is too far gone to allow them to do any data “analysis”, they are untrustworthy, their false data has caused tremendous economic damage and they should be under constant, permanent audit until it can be demonstrated they can handle data in a scientific manner.
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#Bom_Data_Fail
51
Separating the collection of data, from the analysis of that data, does not address the problem. In fact, you end up with two areas where the integrity can be suborned, so you are increasing the problem, rather than solving it.
What would be better, in my opinion, would be to have one commercial organisation that does the collection, with an independent auditor who does random audits on a regular basis.
That gives you a fairly stable database of historic readings, by location, that any other organisation can access (presumably for a fee) in order to do their own analysis, for their own purposes.
I know that horticulturists, for example, would love to accumulate better information on the micro-climates, in their specific region. But to do that, needs a supply of base data that is produced to a known standard of accuracy.
41
Having written the above, it occurs to me that the Australian BOM seem to be fixated on collecting data that can be presented as being accurate to hundredths of a degree.
Why?
Is it so they can claim the hottest-day-ever, with a precision of tenths of a degree, once they have rounded it up or (rarely) down? Who, apart from politicians, would even be remotely interested? Organic life cannot detect temperature change at that level of precision.
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Rereke Whakaaro:
“Organic life cannot detect temperature change at that level of precision”. True but then neither can the BoM.
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It’s all smoke and mirrors anyway. It’s only that temperature at that time and at that place. Move 100m away and the temperature is different. So why the precision?
Then they average the temperature from 4 points hundreds of kilometres apart. To what end? It’s a nonsense value that does not represent the four data points, or any place between them. It’s a mathematical construct only.
81
No need to talk records. Talk science. Talk gas molecules, numbers of electrons and shells, vibration, convection, translation and kinetic collisions between gas molecules. Photon energy and peak emissions and peak temperatures and you will see quite clearly radiative gasses cannot trap heat. For all radiative gas molecules in the atmosphere less than half the emitted energy reaches the surface. All those photons are at or below the peak temperature of 288K (15C) and thus qualify as low infra red. Over 70% of the world’s surface is water which does not absorb low IR. In fact it cools the sea surface.
Maybe one day they will rewrite the science books so we won’t end up with silly arguments and we can all freeze to death in the coming ice age. (I won’t, I’m too old 🙂 )
124
Of course they can, just like the ionosphere can trap radio waves, but it’s more a scattering effect than trapping and sensible heat has nothing to do with it, it’s emr that is ‘trapped’. However, given the number of CO2 molecules in the emission layer is increasing, it also follows that the nett effect has to be cooling. In effect the so-called scientists postulate that cooling in the stratosphere wont affect the lapse rate ( or will increase it), but I’m not sure exactly which parallel universe they are talking about when they say that because it certainly isn’t this universe.
92
If you claim to be too old to rewrite the science books, then you had better delegate the responsibility to Henry VII, sooner, rather than later.
72
No need. Just do your share in seeing Dr. Allmendinger’s paper The Refutation of the Climate Greenhouse Theory and a Proposal for a Hopeful Alternative is given as wide a circulation as you can all give it. His discovery is definitely not IPCC approved material 🙂
…[Emphases are mine.]
So much for the down-welling radiation. I was not choking on it unreasonably nor unrealistically.
He made a second very interesting discovery:
Now, who knew the small quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere actually has a slight cooling effect?
I sure didn’t.
Of course, one conclusion is obvious:
His experiment is so very simple it should be able to be replicated widely and even at a school science level. In fact, the IPCC should be taken to task and beaten about it ears for not doing this simple experiment! Pshaw! World leading scientists Yes. Really.
53
Thanks sophocles, interesting paper.
13
I feel another whitewash coming. This has been the practice all along.
95
Hold the “blow torch” of public exposure under the BOMs rear end, until it yells UN-CLE!
73
If you could get the precise same duration, wind, cloud, humidity, position and measurement conditions it might be worth comparing one day’s high max with that of some other day. Provided site conditions are completely unchanged so there can be no UHI etc.
That scorching Sydney day in 2013 might be worth comparing with that scorching day in 1939, for example. It would not be of much importance, if any. But it would be worth the while since it would be a genuine comparison.
But of course you can’t even get close to the same duration, wind, cloud, humidity, position and measurement conditions. Nor can you reproduce anything like the same site conditions.
No, you can’t even come close. In fact, the less tedious talk about all that the better.
This lack of comparison and reference points would once have been a bar to any facile conclusions about climate. But in the age of the ready-cooked takeaway statistic nobody worries about all that fussy detail of background, interpretation and significance. What matters now is to top out. It’s that single high number we’re after. Something to get the punters revving.
Now…Would you like fries with your statistic?
112
“That scorching Sydney day in 2013 might be worth comparing with that scorching day in 1939, for example”
AWS data said the 2013 peak, after massive urban development, was the same as 1939.
NO WARMING in 74 years !!!
Where the extra 0.5C came from is anyone’s guess.!
But still….. 0.5C in 74 years. PANIC TIME !!!!
126
The heatwave (we’re not counting the Black Friday fires) of 1939 remains our most lethal single natural event, just ahead of 1896 heatwave. Not that you can do a really exact body count, but the stories are many and very clear. When Sydney hit its old 1939 record H G Wells copped it in Canberra, five people died people died in Singleton alone on the 14th of January when the temp wasn’t far short of 50C, Adelaide was in strife with fires as well as a fortnight-long heatwave.
Not saying 2009 was a walk in the park either. Australian climate is like most climates, only more so. 1938-9 was actually a La Nina year flanked by neutral years. But what does the Australian climate care about ninos and ninas? When it gets into one of its moods…just duck.
120
Given that the centennial standard deviation ‘climate variation’ (the absurd UN definition for the ‘natural’ climate) runs at 0.98C +/- 0.27C over 8000 yrs of the settled Holocene (Lloyd PJ, 2015), which appears to have been very gently cooling since the ‘thermal optimum’ 8000 yrs ago, identifying a 0.5C anomaly above the usual and defined by the UN as ‘climate change’ (the silly UN definition that replaced global warming in 1999 / 2000 when it didn’t and attributes ALL ‘anomalous’ change to indirect and direct human influence) would be a daunting and nigh impossible task, unless one could guarantee the adjustment bureau and the delivery of the anomaly, and one could promote the anomaly to be removed from ‘variation’ or ‘business as usual’, which has not been possible, at least in a scientific sense. The need for heavy duty marketing is obvious as is the ‘Inconvenient Deception’.
Given the UNEP/UN enshrined ideological destination of ‘climate change’ it may take a truly seismic political shift to up-end the gravy train and reverse the UN/UNEP momentum – think the ‘divestment’ mantra of ‘ethical investing’, think UN transformational agenda, think the ‘sustainable’ cliche, all locked and loaded.
Even if the intellectual bankruptcy of climatism skience is unequivocally exposed as ideology, will it matter? I sincerely hope so.
Even though the Trojan horse was discovered, the fate of Troy was sealed, and even though Cassandra predicted the fall of Troy, it still did.
41
Given the extremist political reaction of Australia to any loud noise from ‘agenderized’ activists, it may be that it will be the destruction of Australia’s prior prime economic system by following the extreme dictates of the green lobbies that wakes the rest of the (Western democratic) world to where this Climate debacle is leading it. It will be the purist response by our governments – avoided everywhere else – that paints the hell on earth finale for the rest to be avoided at all costs. Then the world of the climate carpetbaggers will be terminated.
11
Occasional heatwaves are a universal problem, but we’ll need a super computer to work out the variables which make them happen.
Just like BoM the UK Met is known to exaggerate on the warm side.
https://www.thegwpf.com/christopher-booker-nice-heatwave-but-june-1878-was-hotter/
61
Hmm air sitting still over a hot surface baking in the sun, just like when a high pressure system sits over the continent in summer. Gee… and not a supercomputer in sight.
Experiment for SJWs, as you sit pondering us evil d’niers over your skinny soy latte, stick your hand over the top of the latte. Is it hot there? a heatwave? in the air above a hot surface?
52
That’s all good for siencency talk bobl but wheres the emotional argument?
I mean how many minorities are in danger of discrimination due to that latte?
10
first, congrats to Jennifer Marohasy, Jo and others who have helped to bring us to this point.
second, of course no media, other than The Australian, has yet reported on the matter. if they don’t cover it, it isn’t happening!
I prefer this September chart for Mildura, as I can never properly navigate the BoM website, but the temps all around that “fantastic” hot day never rate a mention when the alleged record heat of a single day is reported:
EldersWeather: Mildura September 2017
Sat 23/09/2017 Max 37.7 Anomaly +17.2
http://www.eldersweather.com.au/dailysummary.jsp?lt=site&lc=76031&dt=1
on A-PAC cable TV channel this evening (don’t know if it was for the first time or if they have run it before):
AUDIO: 53mins26secs: 27 Sept: Sydney University: Renewable Reinvention – Global Green Shift?
What does a renewable energy future look like?
Co-presented with the Sydney Environment Institute
Global energy markets are in process of rapid change and transformation. Over the last decade, renewable energy technologies like solar and wind have become dramatically cheaper and now challenge the economics of traditional fossil-fuel energy systems. Added to this, the catastrophic implications of human-induced climate disruption are forcing governments to seriously embrace decarbonisation as demonstrated in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. However, the US Government’s recent rejection of clean energy legislation and proposed expansion of coal, oil and gas highlight how the old fossil fuel order is not giving up without a fight and there are countervailing trends evident in current political battles over energy and climate.
This Sydney Ideas event will bring together three expert speakers on the potential for renewable reinvention and a global green shift. What are the opportunities and challenges Australia and the world face in the coming decade as we try to kick our fossil fuel habit and embrace a cleaner, more sustainable energy future?
•Professor John Mathews, Macquarie Graduate School of Management, Macquarie University in Sydney
•Emma Herd, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC)
•Professor Tony Vassallo, Delta Electricity Chair in Sustainable Energy Development, Faculty of Engineering & Information Technology, University of Sydney
•Professor Christopher Wright (chair), Professor of Organisational Studies, University of Sydney
http://sydney.edu.au/sydney_ideas/lectures/2017/renewable_reinvention.shtml
52
note: jo excerpted:
“Just last Saturday (September 22)”, the Bureau of Meteorology announced a September record for Mildura, in northwestern Victoria, of 37.7C.
however, September 22 was a Friday.
the EldersWeather chart I posted has 37.7 for Saturday 23 Sept.
BoM Vic has 22 Sept (a Friday) here:
Twitter: BoM Vic: 22 Sept: Tweet: Hot across much of #Victoria today. #Mildura set a new statewide September high of 37.7C (prev. 37.4C, 22nd 2003) http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/vicall.shtml …
https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/911441556221104128
perhaps this is meaningless, but it would be good if the date and day matched!
71
***this also claims 37.7C was for Saturday 23 September, so how come BoM tweeted the temp on Friday 22 September, with replies on the same date? am I missing something?
3 Oct: WeeklyTimes: September rainfall: NSW Riverina reels from the dry
by JAMES WAGSTAFF
It was also a month of extreme temperature with some Victorian centres recording their coldest September days earlier in the month and others their hottest a fortnight later.
Temperatures dropped to -7.5C at Mt Hotham on September 5 while the mercury rose to 37.7C at Mildura on ***September 23. Thirty-two Victorian centres recorded their warmest September days on record, with Gabo Island and Kerang breaking more than century-old records…
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/weather/september-rainfall-nsw-riverina-reels-from-the-dry/news-story/620ac9393f8921797766ae43d988db28
11
comment in moderation re date/day oddity for the Mildura hot temp (posted as reply to the EldersWeather chart in comment #16.)
40
Methinks that there is no such thing as government science.
Any such animal is a political construct.
A child that will never be independent and will require constant supervision in a special facility.
72
A double barrel question to Jo about the red thumber(s). Do you know (can you see) who they are and are you willing to disclose their identities?
73
Their whole world exists to press the red thumb.
Have pity on their feeble existence. 🙂
Or realise that each time you “trigger” them, they are getting more and more pent up with rage and hatred inside. 🙂
Maybe one day, one of them will find the ability to actually put up an argument…. nah !!
105
I’m sure I seen a comment from a mod to a troll and they mentioned something about the number of red thumbs they had given without comment .
One red thumb without valid comment is worth 10 green thumbs imo.
64
Yes, I count them as 10 because it shows I might have got into the (short) attention spans of an SJW for a moment.
44
The red thumbs should be possible to match with posters based on ip
23
Whoever it is, is quite specific. GA doesn’t usually get an equal number to the rest of us, but cops two thumbs here.
AndyG55, as GA pointed out on a previous thread, always gets the lions share of red thumbs.
24
I don’t think I named names!
20
That’s ridiculous: how can you ” name a name”?
It already has a name.
10
true… quite absurd.
30
Hmm, I looked through the threads to find it. Apparently I misremembered. Sorry for giving you credit for something you didn’t do Gee.
20
and I’m glad that unlike KK, you realise that naming names is a common expression where the word “name” has a different meaning in each case.
For the KKs in this world “Naming” means nominating or proclaiming out loud. “Names” means the identity of the person. So to rewrite for those still confused let me restate, I did not publicly identify a particular individual.
32
Could you “restate” that so we can see what you really mean.
20
I mean… why are you up at 3.44am?
12
“AndyG55, as GA pointed out on a previous thread, always gets the lions share of red thumbs.”
Red thumbers HATE having the FACTS and TRUTH rubbed in their faces.
Why do you think they never respond with actual content.. THEY CAN’T !
(as Gee Aye’s posts attest, nearly always being content free zone)
54
AndyG55.
There is no point responding to you, all you produce are insults in return. You KNOW this.
62
twotter.
Back to his irrelevant attention-seeking worst.
Bring FACTS, twotter. not empty rhetoric.
44
ironic gold right there
53
Gee Aye.
I am glad to see you get it. AndyG55 is ironic, in an amusing sort of way.
23
Pyrite back at you.
21
Poor ZERO-science, twotter and GA.
You are EMPTY !!!
And you KNOW that.
23
GEE AYE.
Show me one post of twotter’s where he produces FACTS.
23
“Bring FACTS,”
Hey GA, was my FACT about September being 12th warmest in the short term measurements, correct, or not. 😉
How IRONIC that you agree with that FACT.
Do you also agree that 1 second AWS temperatures should NOT be compare with mercury thermometer temperatures?
Waiting 😉
23
And GA, don’t forget that you OUT OF YOUR WAY to prove I was correct.
I thank you for that. 🙂
03
And you didn’t even realise how much the strings on your arms hurt.
Do you FEEL like a puppet, GA ? !! 🙂
13
Great work. Keep up the pressure and hope more truth is revealed.
BOM will never serve Australia and its people well until all the available truth is and published. A public agency formed to provide information and historical records for weather and climate cannot do its work in secret and to deceive the majority of people to promulgate the false programs of a rich and powerful special interest group. The BOM work should be honest and true and for the benefit of all Australians.
Keep up the pressure until there is significant and lasting reform in the BOM.
72
The B.O.M. will need to explain,
Why those who dare to complain,
Of their secretive zeal,
To make warming seem real,
Are dismissed with a warmist disdain.
131
Bom will never give in, these people need to be surgically removed.
112
Agree. It’s obviously ingrained in the management at least. If they had any integrity at all, they would have modified their procedures, and their data capture and recording. They have done the opposite. They need hauling before an inquiry, public floggings, and early retirement.
71
Tim:
Do as the warmists do. Take a leaf out of their Manual of Conduct for Anthropogenic Global Warming Believers and write to their boss(es) demanding they be dismissed and why. If it’s good enough for a certain German Klimate Skientist, then it’s good enough for us.
21
Staff in the BOM should be wary. If an excuse is needed for renewed investment in coal powered generators, any misbehavior on the part of temperature recording by the BOM could lead to the appropriate fall guys for political blame. “We were lied to…”
112
I think that sentiment (political fall guys) applies to all scientists and particularly climate ones who are not scientists of course.
140
I think we should one day have Nuremberg style trials when the world realises the global warming/climate change frenzy was all based on lies that lead to the biggest scam of all time costing taxpayers all over trillions. People who have conducted far lesser scams have been put in prison for life. For example, Bernard Madoff received the punishment of 150 years imprisonment and forfeiture of $17.179 billion. So imagine how much bigger the penalty will be for those currently leading the biggest scam of all. Yes if necessary the trials may need to be conducted by the military. I doubt it will happen soon enough though to avoid the crash and burn scenario playing out.
72
Does anybody here remember the BEST study?
“The BEST study re-analysed land-surface temperatures. It was led by Richard Muller, a physics professor at the University of California. Muller has described himself as a “properly sceptical” scientist, and was motivated to analyse global temperature records to satisfy his own scientific misgivings.
Those misgivings related to the veracity of temperature data collected globally. Questions are regularly raised in the blogosphere about corrections to temperature records, and the possible influence of the urban heat island effect on global warming trends. The BEST study aimed to determine whether the choices made when analysing temperatures influenced the warming trends that were being observed.
…….
In fact, national meteorological agencies and research centres have been exploring the sensitivities of the records to adjustments and other analysis choices for two decades.
For example, the Bureau of Meteorology has been producing an automated analysis of Australian temperatures — from 1910 to present, using a method very similar to that employed by BEST — since the late 1990s. This unadjusted data complements the adjusted data, and the two sets are cross-checked against each other.
The upshot of all that research is that the warming trends observed globally over the last century are physically robust, and not particularly sensitive to urbanisation or method of construction.”
http://theconversation.com/on-global-temperatures-berkeleys-best-is-similar-to-the-rest-8684
63
Methods are quite different in the US to here. Starting with 5 minute smoothed averages compared to our “one second records”.
On individual stations the adjusted temps are often nothing like the raw data with changes in both records and trends.
However with carefully cherry-picked averaging over large areas it is possible to produce misleading graphs of averaged-grouped-not-raw data, call it “raw” when it isn’t and make pronouncements of how adjustments don’t matter.
Unless there is a single instrument able to measure a whole country at once that I havent heard of , there is no such thing as a raw single line “average” across a nation. Averaging can be done in so many ways.
95
You may be right pointing out potential difficulties with forming large scale averages from point observations.
However, in theory, it shouldn’t be too difficult to:
(a) chose a subset of, say, ten stations across the continent (not cherry picked)
(b) access and publish the raw data and metadata for each
(c ) produce a best estimate for a homogenous time series in each case
(d) compare the results with the BoM data (and anybody else’s estimate)
(e) and discuss the reasons for any differences
Is there any obstacle to going down this path?
e.g. why can’t we do this for Sydney (Observatory)
33
It depends on what you intend to use the resulting data for. If for round table discussions and to create better sensing methods then your ideas are fine. If for re-making public policy and saving the globe?
No not so much. Way way too much slop.
20
The BOM already have. They call it ACORN-SAT.
23
Hahaha. Nice one Harry.
01
Poor twotter , SUCK-IN by NON-science…. yet again
01
Farce, ie BOM-ACORN, seems to be the only thing you have any cognisance of.
01
“Muller has described himself as a “properly sceptical” scientist, “
ROFLMAO.. Muller is a play actor extraordinaire. Certainly seems to have you believing 😉
The guy is and always has been a RABID alarmista, add in his daughter.. and you have AGW con-artist central !!
58
The homogenisations process was devised by CRU (Stott, iirc) with the intent of being able to “adjust” data however it was required.
He then spent time over here, and warming trends suddenly started to appear in past data, where there been cooling before.
The whole process is open to whatever manipulation is needed for their agenda…..
… but people are starting to realise what has been done and is still being done.
58
You never did get back with any arguments against anything Plimer said on the Jones show on Tuesday.
I assume therefore, that you agree with all of his comments.
68
It appears the red thumbers have ZERO counter to Plimer’s comments
To be expected…. AS ALWAYS.
02
I believe recording the glass thermometers should be continued in parallel with the electronic devices indefinitely. They are two different systems recording two different things by two different methods.
And if you want to rely on the electronic data, you need two at least recording simultaneously, three preferably. It’s call redundancy, a check value, backup.
92
Greg
You’re showing your age there. That’s a previous era use of “redundancy”.
These days it means sack someone quicker
30
Actually for redundancy and fault tolerance you would need at least 3. If only 2then which one does one use if the difference in readings is too large? Even with a statistical approach it could be unclear. If 3 are used and one gives an anomalous reading then it can be “voted” out from the start. Given the low cost of making such units one might as well have say 10. That way as time goes by and more and more cease to function properly or stop working completely, there is still no need to replace the whole unit, especially for remote places. The problem with such an approach is it assumes people theses days plan ahead in such a way. They don’t anymore. The approach these days in many businesses and government organisations is more of a quick and dirty solution and bugger the consequences. I’ve sene this happen time and time again first hand. They claim the reason they do it is because it’s cheaper and quicker but in fact that is untrue as the real cost is far greater over time, and the time they take to design and build the solution (be it hardware or software) takes just as much as the proper solution due to crappy project management practices and team leaders that have no interest.
50
Completely agree, three is needed for a quality system.
I said is usable for the following reasons:
If one number is way out, it’s obvious.
If the two numbers are within tolerance, use the official reporting one (the other being a check value).
If the two are outside of tolerance, then get someone out there to calibrate them quick smart.
It’s a usable system that self-checks for faults.
40
If BOM aren’t carefull they will replace “Furphy” and put him out of a job .
21
At least his water cart was useful
30
Helping out our overseas colleagues.
‘A furphy is Australian slang for an erroneous or improbable story that is claimed to be factual.’
40
Elgordo that seems to explain our Bom rather nicely doesn’t it .
20
The useful side (water carts etc) gets a mention here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furphy
40
I’m shocked!
7 Oct: Daily Caller: Michael Bastasch: AP Omitted Expert Quotes That Didn’t Fit The Narrative About Global Warming
An Associated Press reporter sent some questions to Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. about what role global warming played in this year’s slew of billion-dollar natural disasters.
Pielke, an expert on natural disaster costs, apparently didn’t give AP reporter Seth Borenstein the answers he was looking for, because his ensuing article didn’t have any quotes from the University of Colorado professor…
Borenstein, however, did quote Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann, who claimed global warming was “impacting extreme weather in ways we hadn’t anticipated.”…
Borenstein also quoted a meteorologist at the insurance company Munich Re, who said a bigger role in natural disaster costs is that more people are living in areas prone to extreme weather…READ ALL THE DETAILS
http://dailycaller.com/2017/10/07/ap-omitted-expert-quotes-that-didnt-fit-the-narrative-about-global-warming/
61
Pat
As that Mandy Rice-Davies quote has it
“He would wouldn’t he”
31
In any situation relating to measurement standards as documented by various national standards bodies such as SAI (Australia) or ANSI (US) it takes many years to develop standardised and reliable methods of physical measurement for various quantities. It is remarkable therefore that the BoM did little or no comparitive testing between glass thermometers and PRTs. There should have been side by side measurements for five years or so to validate the new technique.
54
And therefore the early data sets cannot be mixed with new data originating from the super sensitive electronic instruments.
51
I think that we have been told that the BOM did some side by side comparative testing, but have since discarded all the comparative measurement records.
61
If the records were destroyed it’s as though it never happened.
42
That’s science.
It never happened.
40
OT , more great news from the Glorious leader of Victoriastan, they are making some changes to make it fairer for renters but it may come back to bite through increased rent .
After a work injury left me no longer able to work I invested in a property so I would have some sort of income for the future .
Under the old system the landlord could stipulate no pets but now we have to have a credible reason for refusing .
All the landlord insurance policy’s I’ve seen won’t cover damage caused by a pet , so now I’m left wondering if it’s time to sell and put the money elsewhere .
I can see landlords increasing rent in the anticipation that they will be replacing floor coverings and flywire door screens .
51
As a fellow resident of Victoriastan my advice is to invest in firearms and teach like minded persons how to use them thus creating sure fire insurance.
20
2 Oct: TheAdvocateTasmania: State shivers through coldest spring since 2003
by Sean Slatter
The state has braved its way through the coldest September in 14 years, according to data released from the Bureau of Meteorology…
Cold outbreaks meant snow fell on the mountains several times during September, often accompanied with strong and gusty winds (including on September 30).
Snow settled to low levels from September 4-6, and again on September 8 and 9.
Some sites with relatively short record had their coldest September day ***on record early on in the month, with Kunanyi/Mount Wellington having its coldest temperature of the year on the morning of September 5…
The statewide mean maximum temperature was 0.74 degrees below average (the coolest since 2010) and the average minimum temperature was 0.64 degrees below average (the coolest since 2003), giving an average temperature 0.68 degrees below average (the coolest since 2003)
http://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/4961312/state-braves-coldest-spring-in-14-years/
6 Oct: Accuweather: Reinforcing burst of chilly air to bring more snow to northwestern US this weekend
By Renee Duff
“Temperatures will remain chilly and well below early October normals through the upcoming weekend,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston said.
A fresh round of chilly air will plunge over the Northwest this weekend, knocking temperatures back as quickly as they rebounded.
Daytime temperatures are expected to fall back into the 30s and 40s across the interior Northwest and 50s and 60s closer to the coast by early next week.
Despite average temperatures trending downward rapidly in October, highs will be around 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal near the coast and up to 15 degrees below normal farther inland during the invasion of cool air…
The chill will sweep across the Colorado Front Range, northern Plains and Upper Midwest early next week, perhaps bringing some of the coldest air so far this season to these areas.
“Some snow is expected in the northern and central Rockies late in the weekend as the much cooler air arrives,” Boston said.
This storm may bring the first snowflakes of the season to the Denver metro area. Another dose of heavy snow is in store for the Colorado Rockies…
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/reinforcing-burst-of-chilly-air-to-bring-more-snow-to-northwestern-us-this-weekend/70002905
31
Congratulations to Jo Nova and Jennifer Marohasy for their hard work and the break through.
ALet’s see if this scandal makes its way into the Alarmist Media which daily floods us with Climate alarmist propaganda.
The Carcass of the BOM has never been so assailed before. It is time for real public criticism, “naming and shaming” as someone once said.
82
There is only one reason to pay for a public weather bureau, absolute accuracy. Before the UN, who would have dreamed of a political bias in the weather? It was unthinkable.
The same for a public broadcaster. Weather is big money. So is news. We, the Australian taxpayers, pay $3.5Billion, $70million a week to have accurate news, accurate science and accurate and rigorous measurement.
Any suggestion of political bias in our data or news, the very thing and the only thing we are paying to avoid and the ABC/SBS, CSIRO, BOM should be sold off. With total automation, who needs them? Why did our minister hire 350 climate scientists when he had the BOM? Hundreds of millions of dollars for glossy brochures?
We can get our weather data from satellites and automated recording devices which report to satellites. we can get our news from the internet, the police, the emergency services and AAP. Anyone can sell this valuable information and pay wages.
So this inquiry should be about whether the BOM has a future as an historically impartial and conscientious and absolutely accurate reporter of, at the very least, the temperature. What we have seen can only be explained by a political motive and that is not acceptable, not scientific and not worth a dollar of our cash.
74
7 Oct: Reuters: EU split on carbon market reform ahead of U.N. climate talks
by Alissa de Carbonnel and Robert-Jan Bartunek in Brussels and Susanna Twidale in London; Editing by Alexander Smith
Negotiators for EU nations and the European Parliament meet on Oct. 12 after months of talks to try to finalize a legal text on reforms to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) post-2020…
EU nations on Friday agreed a draft compromise proposal by the bloc’s Estonian presidency, which is pushing hard for progress during its six-month chairmanship.
U.N. climate talks in Bonn next month “are a big motivator” for concluding negotiations, one EU source said.
“Everyone wants to go there with this in their pocket.”
The text shows negotiators are still striving to bridge divisions over how to balance environmental ambitions with protection for energy-intensive industries.
A copy of the draft text, reviewed by Reuters, says:
“The most sensitive political points remain to be resolved.”…
EU nations are now ready to cede to Parliament’s demands by moving forward by one year, from 2024 to 2023, the date from which permits in the MSR are canceled…
How many free permits should go to heavy industry rather than being auctioned and how to use funds to promote low carbon innovation remain the toughest sticking points, EU sources said…
One compromise proposal would allow poorer, coal-reliant nations in Central and Eastern Europe more generous provision to help modernize their industries…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-carbon/eu-split-on-carbon-market-reform-ahead-of-u-n-climate-talks-idUSKBN1CB1U2
6 Oct: Reuters: Eric Walsh: Trump picks coal lobbyist for EPA deputy role, drawing mixed reaction
President Donald Trump on Thursday named Andrew Wheeler, a coal industry lobbyist and former congressional staffer, as his pick for deputy administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, prompting contrasting reactions from industry and environmental groups.
The Sierra Club, an environmental group, called his nomination, which is subject to Senate confirmation, “absolutely horrifying,” while a coal industry group and some Republican politicians said he was well qualified for the job.
The EPA said in a statement Wheeler had spent four years at the agency’s Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations, as well as many years on Capitol Hill, including as counsel for conservative Republican Senator James Inhofe…
Inhofe said in the statement that no one is more qualified than Wheeler to help EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt “restore EPA to its proper size and scope.”…
***He (Trump) also promised to pull Washington ***out of a global pact to fight climate change, which he did in June.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-epa-wheeler/trump-picks-coal-lobbyist-for-epa-deputy-role-drawing-mixed-reaction-idUSKBN1CB014
***”out of a global pact”? strange language from Reuters.
31
6 Oct: Barrons: Sarah Max: Jeremy Grantham is Worried About the World
The veteran investor now runs a $900 million foundation focused on protecting the environment. What he supports, where he invests.
The $900 million Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment gives money to organizations such as the Environmental Defense Fund and World Wildlife Fund, and supports climate-related research and communication at four academic institutions. It has contributed to the training of more than a hundred Ph.Ds in climate-related work, and funded two Pulitzer-winning projects and one recipient of an Emmy. Last year Grantham, who is British, was named a Commander of the Order of the British Empire for his philanthropic contributions to the environment.
As an investor, Grantham’s priority is earning the best return. Still, he says, it’s impossible to separate what he knows about the environment and how he thinks about risk and opportunity. “If you believe, as I do, that climate change is so severe that it’s an actual question about survival as a well functioning global society, then you know that I take it extremely seriously,” he says.
If we don’t solve climate change, he warns, “all the other things we are trying to protect and encourage are a waste of money and energy.”…
Q: What is one of your biggest concerns?
Grantham: Acceleration. Carbon dioxide is going up at an increasing rate, with the three biggest increases occurring in the last three years; the climate is warming at an increasing rate; and the water is warming at an increasing rate; and therefore, the level at which oceans are rising is increasing at an accelerating rate. It’s one thing for the world to be deteriorating, but deteriorating at an increasingly fast rate is particularly dangerous and scary…
Q: Tell us about your foundation.
Grantham: Total annual giving runs about $25 million to $30 million. About 30% is in the U.K., where, all things being equal, research costs half as much as it does in the U.S.
We fund four climate-change institutes—at Imperial College, the London School of Economics, and Sheffield University, as well as a related investment at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.
We give 20% to about a dozen small organizations engaged in communications. We allocate about 40% of our giving to some of the usual suspects, The Nature Conservancy, Environmental Defense Fund, and the World Wildlife Fund, and a fourth group called RARE, which is U.S.-based but spends everything abroad protecting the environment.
The remaining part is an army of 15 or 20 more specialized enterprises, one of which is based on population. Population is a massive problem, particularly in Africa…Overpopulation is a threat. Climate change interacts with all of them in a rather pernicious way…
Q: What is the foundation’s approach to grant-making?
Grantham: We try to look at critical areas for the future. We require that grantees are urgent in their style and have fire in their bellies…
Q: How do you reconcile your views on climate change with investments in the Resources fund?
Grantham: It’s complicated because the biggest resources are fossil fuels. New technology is an arrow aimed at the heart of fossil fuels; after a decent one or two years, the slow burn of green energy will substitute them away. They will have to manage a long, slow decline. [About 30% of the portfolio is in oil and gas, versus nearly 70% for most market-cap-weighted resource benchmarks.] We would expect over the next 10 years to be handsomely underweighted. That does not mean that there may not be a time when the fund will choose to invest…ETC ETC ETC
http://www.barrons.com/articles/jeremy-grantham-is-worried-about-the-world-1507347756
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If Grantham finds and reads Allmendinger 2017, [“the first empirical evidence that greenhouse gases do not exist”] then he won’t be investing in anything to do with climate again.
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Well done ladies. And the ladies it was.
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So Frydengurg is surprised. BS. He knows exactly what they’re up to afterall the government runs the BOM’s budget. Keep up with the pressure & let’s see what an audit turns up. No doubt the Lefty government badly in need of revenue will find that all is in order. The rot is always found to have started deep within any organism & government is no different,
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Its hard not to see this less as a meeting of minds than a clash of cultures.
On one hand the instruments used are highly sensitive, but there is no central rational use that is verifiable, to produce raw information.
Problems seen in other scientific jurisdictions, such as keeping up with current standards of measurement, are resolved by them, here some standard is seen as rigid and the conflicts in the measurements remain undetected.
External audit is suggested, but the problem,at the level of measurement, must have become enculturated for it to have persisted so long.
At a deeper level BOM is actually being faced with its nemesis.
Not only is the data of dubious utility for forecasting say monthly or seasonal weather, but it would appear that the method used by the BOM is becoming obsolescent.
It could be replaced by neural self learning network and better data.This is the applied technology used by our friendly neighbours, the Chinese, when they hacked the BOM.
They had no problem buying the Kidman empire, they had the best minds on it.
The Chinese may be risk averse, but they did not buy the eternal drought forecast by our Climate Commissioner.
Dr Jennifer represents a new wave of competent scientists who like to learn, measure and innovate.
Large bureaucratic organisations are not so nimble.
They can chew up large resources, but worse, sequester them to their own methods and uses, which may not be of use to those who need the resource.
Large government organisations have a variety of choices in managing such conflicts.
However as the science progressed they either seize the moment of become irrelevant.
What is notable is that the good doctor does not need the BOM, just the data that is verifiable and accurate.
Not that this is an unusual request.
It is sweeping the civilized world.
Higher bar for data retrieval and storage of open sourced documents.
https://eos.org/editors-vox/do-you-expect-me-to-just-give-away-my-data
We need the numbers – all the numbers – behind the published figures, graphs, contour plots etc. And these need to be specific; that is not averages within regions and so on. Your readers may well wish to re-plot these data to test a pet theory, or to assign them as a class problem, or to combine the results in a major review article. That is what your work is for.
credit Mosher/ cf Judith Curry
Congress has spoken.Its legislated.
We are still using 20th century technologies and methods for a 21st century purpose.
So the question is
Quo Vadis?
Will the good Doctor be thrown a bone,given a job in the BOM organisation or a small seed grant.
Perhaps the BOM will set up a crowd site and have citizen scientists troll through the site changes, asphalt laying and aircraft movements to sort out an ACORN mark Beta one.
Was not the idea of the NBN that we would be connected by fast broadband?
Another site will explain the reasons for homogenisation and the calculation of errors of measurement so caused.
Particular sites will be given as examples and as learning advances, the whole network will be assessed publicly.
This site could crowd fund a startup.
An application could be made to the Federal Government’s Innovation funds.
Today’s reading from Matthew is apt, in a different context.
The wisdom is inherent.
‘I tell you,then,that [the BOM] will be taken from you and given to a people who will produce its fruit’
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I haven’t let grass grow under my feet: I’ve been outside mowing the stuff. There was a pause in the rain.
What wonderful news, Jo. That’s the end of the beginning, and now there’s the beginning of the rest. I, for one, will be interested in how it plays out.
So, with no more delay:
Yay the team! Well done, Jo and Jen!
My congratulations, so far. You’ve both been felt. I’m qualifying it because Pollies are very slippery fish and if there’s to be any enquiry or investigation of any sort, we need to heed the terms of reference. That’s where the wriggle room always is.
Let’s see what happens next.
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I am glad the articles from The Australian are behind a paywall. There is too much fake news around as it is.
“What we need is the absolute raw data.”
Strange – the raw data is available on the BOM website last time I looked.
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I see that the BOM scandal exists only in armchair expert world, not the wider scientific community.
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You can speak for the wider scientific community, can you Frank? Gosh, and here am I corresponding with somebody who knows everybody, and everything.
Who would have thought?
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Rereke.
It might surprise you to know that people do read widely and consider many viewpoints. What Frank says is correct, the wider scientific community does not think there is any scandal concerning the BOM, despite the best attempts at promoting a hoax by a couple of blogs with an agenda.
01
“It might surprise you to know that people do read widely and consider many viewpoints.”
NO YOU, though
01
And CERTAINLY NOT frank.
Brain-wash AGW cultists with ZERO interest in reality or facts.. BOTH of you.
Please produce a paper showing CO2 causes warming in our convectively controlled atmosphere.
Or are you going to REMAIN EMPTY of any actual science…. as always
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Frank.
You got that right. The “scandal” is the work of ratbags. Personally I do not even care, fake blogs are sometimes very entertaining. But The Australian should know better, they do not appear to care about their own reputation.
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FACTS.. poor twooter.
Running away from FACTS , yet again.
Your posts are a hoot of manic AGW desperation as your baseless religions starts to crumble around your empty science.
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BOM issues ARE being seen in the scientific field.
There ARE real scientists and engineers out there.
But you would never know that, would you, Frank.
01
“Absolute raw data”, as in totally unadjusted by any means, or “Absolute raw data”, meaning all of the adjustments having been applied?
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Rereke.
The observational data is there on the BOM website. There is even a function to allow it to be downloaded. It is unadjusted.
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Do you REALLY think that 1 second AWS data is comparable to mercury thermometers.
Are you REALLY that ignorant ????????
01
Just for Twotter and Frank
EMPIRICAL PROOF that CO2 has an IMMEASURABLE effect, MAYBE EVEN A COOLING effect on the Earth’s atmosphere.
https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/the-refutation-of-the-climate-greenhouse-theory-and-a-proposal-for-ahopeful-alternative.pdf
Awaiting your empirical proof of CO2 warming.
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Use the [xx Force, Luke xx] Source, Jo, 🙂
BOM Telmet-320 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) (and backend systems/software?) were supplied by, now defunct, Telvent of Spain. — Does BOM even know or control backend data processing?; Does it even own/have computer source codes?
Shame to see majority of Australian AWS, water level/tidal, and tsunami monitoring infrastructure were apparently outsourced ca. 2007 to Spanish company Telvent that aimed to leverage the EUR3m prototype project to penetrate Asian markets. Good on them, but …
Poor fella Aussie science/tech…
Hello Australian Small/Big Biz Co’s? CSIRO? DAWR? AIMS? BOM? Campbell? Turnbull? Garrett? Burke? Frydenburg? Barnaby?
Was _anyone_ awake to look out for Aussie interests? For much vaunted “Aussie Green Jobs”??
BOM AWS Contract ca. 2007
==========================
http://www.abengoa.es/htmlsites/boletines/en/octubre2007/fr_real2.htm
\begin{QUOTE}
Telvent – Australia’s Meteorological Observation Network
Telvent to expand and modernize the network of automatic meteorological stations for Australian Bureau of meteorology via a more than three million euro project that is at the prototype stage and which will be developed over the next ten years.
The efforts to be made are partly focused on providing support to the Australian Tsunami Warning System. Telvent will replace the existing 600 automatic meteorological stations of Australia’s national meteorological observation network and will also supply 50 sea-level monitoring stations to modernize the System which is central to
Australia’s Tsunami Warning System. To this end, the Telmet 320 data acquisition, processing and treatment system will be implemented. This system, thanks to its high flexibility, scalability and low energy consumption, will allow the enhancement of meteorological predictions in the territory, as well as measurement and control of the effects of
climate change in Australia.
This contract is of significant strategic importance to Telvent as the project will become a technologic reference throughout Asia.
Telvent has developed similar projects in other countries such as Sweden, Holland, Brunei and Kuwait. In the latter it has provided its AWOS Meteorological System for Assisting Air Navigation. This system will allow the Directorate General of Civil Aviation of Kuwait (DGCA) to modernize its meteorology network while meeting one of the key objectives of its airspace system plan (KASP).
\end{QUOTE}
———
Comment:
Does BOM calibrate sensors on these AWS regularly? IMHO they should, and results should be documented, together with correction algorithms, computer codes and results, and made available as part of routine QA program. Any real scientist understands this…
Bring on the audit.
——————-
[ As an aside: anyone here know story on BOM AWS project specification and tender process?
Minister for Environment and Water Resources in 2007?:
Mr Malcolm Turnbull (30/Jan/2007-3/Dec/2007)]
=======================
Background References:
1) Telvent
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telvent
http://www.eleconomista.es/andalucia/noticias/3118851/05/11/Abengoa-vende-el-40-que-mantenia-en-Telvent-a-la-francesa-Schneider-Electric.html
Telvent (a portmanteau of “Telecom Ventures”) was an information technology and industrial automation company specializing in SCADA, GIS and related IT systems for pipeline, energy utility, traffic, agriculture and environmental monitoring industries.
In 2011, its last remaining 40% of Telvent was sold by Abengoa (Spanish multinational) to (French) Schneider Electric group for EUR560million.[1]
2) Abengoa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abengoa
http://www.abengoa.es/web/en/noticias_y_publicaciones/documentos/
In 2014, Abengoa and subsidiaries employed approximately 20,250 people, operating in more than 80 countries.[1]
Abengoa has started insolvency proceedings.[3]
In a 2016 effort to avoid bankruptcy, Abengoa is seeking to reduce its size by 30 percent by selling subsidiaries.
3) Telvent today:
Telvent.com :=
https://www.se.com/ww/en/product-category/6100-grid-automation-and-scada-software/?filter=business-6-medium-voltage-distribution-and-grid-automation
4) Excerpt BOM AWS Contract News page:
http://www.abengoa.es/htmlsites/boletines/en/octubre2007/fr_real2.htm
\begin{QUOTE}
The challenges facing Telvent.
Climate change and security
Climate change and security are two key challenges in the development of mankind, businesses and governments
· As regards climate change, the most important challenges will be associated with energy efficiency, CO2 emission reduction and early warning systems.
As regards security, this being taken in its widest sense, the challenges will be in the critical infrastructure, information, data and migratory flow fields.
Telvent, as a technology solutions and global services company, develops solutions that assist with sustainable and secure energy, transportation, public administration and environment management and offers global services for information infrastructure management, the base of our sustainable world model.
Telvent, upon taking on these challenges, faces them by developing, implementing and maintaining solutions and services in the energy, transportation, environment, public administration and global services sectors.
1. Telvent’s contribution to sustainability and climate change
Telvent provides high value add technological solutions and offers global services in pro of energy efficiency for the energy and transportation sectors, and answers for the environment sector to CO2 emission reduction and early warning systems.
2. Telvent’s contribution to global security
In the field of critical infrastructures and data and information management applied to the energy, transportation, and public administration and to global services, Telvent is working to achieve a more secure world and offers, for these same sectors, solution to migratory flows.
\end{QUOTE}
[Thanks Luke. 🙂 Helpful. — Jo]
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“In the field of critical infrastructures and data and information management applied to the energy, transportation, and public administration and to global services, Telvent is working to achieve a more secure world and offers, for these same sectors, solution to migratory flows.”
[Thanks Luke. 🙂 Helpful. — Jo]
Thanks also to Luke!
Joanne,
You are expert in media communication. Can you please interpret\translate the Televent quote above to anything except burp, sorry, flush! 🙂
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Knowledge is power: This paper describes Telmet320 AWS operation, SD cards , telemetry and backend server processing. Pertains airport AWS 2012 in Mumbai India, but with exception of sensor suite I guess would be very similar/identical BOM Telmet 320 AWS systems.
“An integrated automatic aviation meteorological instrument System at C. S. I. airport, Mumbai”. MAUSAM, 63,2 (April 2012), 247-260 551.508.85 : 656.7 (247)
http://metnet.imd.gov.in/mausamdocs/16327_F.pdf
Air temperature :
– Range -50°C to +50°C;
– Accuracy at 0°C: ± 0.3°C
Sensors sample weather every one second interval
Data sent via Cable Modem over cable and as a redundancy via wireless modem to (In Australia: GSM phone/modem link?)
”
4.1.Temperature sensor
RM young sensor offered by the firm is checked against standard PT100 Digital Thermometer in a temperature and humidity chamber at ‘Instrument Division, IMD Pune’ and the error is within the acceptable limit of 0.2°C as per requirements. Even this error is corrected using software thorough serial port in the sensor so that sensor is calibrated.
”
“Data processing is performed by Met-Console software package specially developed for the system. The
software has different features like; login window, data quality, data range,force variables, history of records,
data property, unit of measurements, status bar and extensive help tool. The system collects data from the remote sensors and external interfaces, processes and displays it, compiles required meteorological and ATC
messages and outputs them to defined external interfaces.
Central data processing server disseminates reports through AFTN Network to various user agencies. All
servers are having 30min power backup UPS.
Sensor data is entering into ALWIN Display Hub (ADH) in addition to CDPU.
Processor in ADH computes RVR, Numerical weather information (instantaneous, 2min average, 10min avge)… *** NOTE:^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^****
… to Digital Slave LED Display (144 mm × 144 mm size). The purpose of ADH is even in case, CDPU serv
er fails at least Numerical Weather Data will be available on LED displays to manage the operational works.
“
20
Can I throw in a question on an unrelated subject.
If the plan by some countries to ban all petrol and diesel cars were to be implemented fully. Apart from the problem of charging millions of batteries with solar and wind farms, there seems to me to be another slight problem.
After the production of fuel for transport, the remaining products from the crude oil are used for nearly everything else we use such as plastics etc. in fact, there seem to be very few things that don’t rely on some byproduct of petroleum. If we only refine for the byproducts, what are they going to do with all the hydrocarbons that would be normally used to power transport etc? Pump it all back down the wells it came up from!! There would be a huge quantity and they would have to get rid of it somehow, or cease production of everything made from oil and just go back to using wood, animal skins etc.
I have never seen a discussion on this and would appreciate it if someone could prove I am talking through my hat. Of course, they may have ideas of running petrol or diesel generators to charge all the new car batteries, then there would be no problem.
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“Of course, they may have ideas of running petrol or diesel generators to charge all the new car batteries, then there would be no problem.”
They already use diesels to cover for solar and wind in many countries.
Quite BIZARRE isn’t it 🙂
Yes,
We need fossil fuels for MANY of society’s requirements.
That is the WHOLE point of the deeper AGW/far-left agenda, the break-down and destruction of society to prepare it for one-world totalitarianism..
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And those that support this agenda seem to think we should all just sit down, shut up, and POLITELY accept their nonsense.
NO THANKS !!
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“NO THANKS !!”
I hab many many finely honed pitchforks for sale. My brother deals in well oiled torches. All you need is dedicated folk. We offer exceptional discount on large lots! 🙂
52
Once asked someone’Look at that car, how many things in it did not come from mining?
Answer, air in the tyres, water in radiator and leather seats.
One could argue that water and air still have to be collected, so mined.
At the moment we are going back to the invention of the sail, possibly in pre history.
20
“At the moment we are going back to the invention of the sail, possibly in pre history.”
Yes free power, (from planetary angular momentum) to sometimes get from hither to yon, maybe, to offer goods and services. Do these fools ever consider the power required to reduce the found oxide of all metals to the useful metallic state? Do these fools consider that all atmospheric CO2 so produced is absolutely required to provide needed foodstuffs for each and every mobile creature\critter\varmint anywhere close to this wonderful Earth? 🙁 The phrase “Gross incompetent stupidity”, comes nowhere close!!
All the best!-will-
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KenE:
Answered your own question there Ken.
Of course we know there are not enough animal skins for the current global population. What happens next is the worry.
20