JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Another Theekend Unwreaded already — tempus fugit…
It must be AGW/Global Warming/Climate Change but…
Blows away old record set in 1914,
says PhD meteorologist Ryan Maue.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
0245 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017
…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY…
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27 SET IN 1914.
More at https://www.iceagenow.info/
251
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b4/c7/b4/b4c7b4e534011dac3dc2699871e467f7.jpg
70
I also see…
Toronto breaks 79-year-old record as temperature drops to -10.1°C
70
Toronto is fortunate that they have a device which measures temps below 10degs.
The Australian BoM does not have such a device.
180
But but…the sky is falling …. fallllllliiiiinnnnnngggggg. *sssscccrreeeeaaammm*
( reminds me of the video of the lefties yelling at the sky like demented coyotes when trump won.. weirdos….)
Ah the Australian Bolshevik Collective… sucks to be you, huh….
http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2017-11-13/record-global-co2-emissions-predicted-for-2017/9144838?pfmredir=ms
“Global CO2 emissions have risen for the first time in three years as scientists warn Australia’s 2030 Paris agreement target is slipping out of reach.
Key points:
Three-year emissions pause linked to reduced coal burning in China
Emissions likely to hit 37 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2017
Australia’s emissions still increasing despite Paris 2030 target
In a report published today, researchers say the increase in global emissions is largely due to growth in coal-fired electricity generation and oil and gas consumption in China.
Global Carbon Project (GCP) executive director and report co-author Dr Pep Canadell said the increase is likely to be about 2 per cent on 2016 levels.”
20
On the same page…i laughed out loud…
“Want more science from across the ABC?”
Er…no..if thats science, id hate to see what engineering looked like…maybe frilly bits and a hammer and sickle flag? Or perhaps big ted and littke ted arm in arm?
Communist Goals (1963) Congressional Record–Appendix, pp. A34-A35 January 10, 1963
Current Communist Goals EXTENSION OF REMARKS OF HON. A. S. HERLONG, JR. OF FLORIDA IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Thursday, January 10, 1963 .
Mr. HERLONG. Mr. Speaker, Mrs. Patricia Nordman of De Land, Fla., is an ardent and articulate opponent of communism, and until recently published the De Land Courier, which she dedicated to the purpose of alerting the public to the dangers of communism in America.
At Mrs. Nordman’s request, I include in the RECORD, under unanimous consent, the following “Current Communist Goals,” which she identifies as an excerpt from “The Naked Communist,” by Cleon Skousen:
11. Promote the U.N. as the only hope for mankind. If its charter is rewritten, demand that it be set up as a one-world government with its own independent armed forces. (Some Communist leaders believe the world can be taken over as easily by the U.N. as by Moscow. Sometimes these two centers compete with each other as they are now doing in the Congo.)
12. Resist any attempt to outlaw the Communist Party.
13. Do away with all loyalty oaths.
14. Continue giving Russia access to the U.S. Patent Office.
15. Capture one or both of the political parties in the United States.
16. Use technical decisions of the courts to weaken basic American institutions by claiming their activities violate civil rights.
17. Get control of the schools. Use them as transmission belts for socialism and current Communist propaganda. Soften the curriculum. Get control of teachers’ associations. Put the party line in textbooks.
18. Gain control of all student newspapers.
19. Use student riots to foment public protests against programs or organizations which are under Communist attack.
20. Infiltrate the press. Get control of book-review assignments, editorial writing, policy-making positions.
21. Gain control of key positions in radio, TV, and motion pictures.”
30
Tom,
Are you sure they didn’t try to read the thermometer upside down? 😉
40
Roy, it’s the state of technical reporting these days.
At least they knew they had to use those numerals keys on the keyboard.
10
So they pass kindergarten then?
That’s a major achievement for them. We should throw a graduation party. 😉
10
Do these people still believe in global warming? . .
They must joking; citizens of US and Canada get real.
Wake up to reality it’s all around you.
GeoffW
30
Went to the movies last night (been ages) and watched Thor Ragnarok which was pure fantasy with lots of humour and quite enjoyable, what was distracting was to randomly recall what silly behaviour some of the actors had engaged in concerning CAGW.
Chris Hemsworth on trump – “He’s full of sh-t on every level with climate change, it’s scary,” Hemsworth said. “This is not some sort of doomsday argument, we’re destroying the planet.”
Cate Blanchett (carbon cate) 2011 TV ad – The advert, paid for by environmental groups, says it is time to tax big polluters and finishes with the Oscar-winning actor urging her fellow citizens to “finally” do something about climate change.
Mark Ruffalo – “If this is true,” Mark Ruffalo, 49, said after hearing reports that Trump will tear up the Paris agreement, “he will have the death of whole nations on his hands.”
Tom Hiddleston – Save the Arctic ‘I want to #SaveTheArctic with @Greenpeace. Such an inspiring campaign. #ClimateChange’
Tessa Thompson – It makes me think about our treatment of the earth. We’re actively causing climate change when we don’t consider the cost.
Idris Elba – “It’s heartbreaking to see so many people going through torment from the weather and it’s par for the course. There is global warming and there are loads of issues that are causing this and my prayers and thoughts go out to everyone that’s suffered, you know. “He said
And so on…… I feel that money would’ve been better spent on chocolates…….apologies.
300
They are PAID to act.
It is their whole life’s existence.
Not one of them would forego even the slightest of trappings that modern fossil fuel powered society has to offer.
282
People who play dress ups and do games of make believe for a living, really arent qualified to deal in proper science…..
QEF
160
QED
61
Steve,
Please stick the following label on the top of your screen:
Caution: Check spelling integrity, before pressing “Post Comment” button!
😉
31
It also happens to the best of us, ie me.
61
Premature Adjudication.
70
I often find my typing is slow compared to how fast i think, subsequently i think my brain gets bored by the time ive finished typing….
I spend so much time typing at work, i dont care if i have mistakes, as long as the general gist is understandable …think of my posts as a cross between accidental meta data and cryptography…. 😉
80
That happens to all of us – you gotta get the idea out, before it de-materialises.
But in the shipping/aeronautical communication system of shorthand “Q-Codes”, what you said was: “I have reached my parking area”. Followed by: “Shall I follow the pilot vehicle?”
Innocuous enough, I guess, but it made me chuckle. It could have been worse: “QRM” means, “I am being interfered with”.
50
100% correct. Why would anyone take advice seriously from pretenders who have made a career out of fairy tales. I’d rather take advice from a dog.
70
Fascinating OriginalSteve. Thanks.
“quod erat faciendum”, “what was to have been done.”
Kinda works doesn’t it?
Apparently, “Much less used than QED. Traditionally used to end passages other than proofs, such as geometric constructions – a “how-to”, not a persuasive argument.”
10
For what would you apologise, pray tell? Certainly not for telling the truth. You could have stopped at one period and forgotten the rest of that last line.
10
According to Alfred Hitchcock, “Actors are cattle.” They’re also sheep, based on their ignorant prattle.
70
Well so many ‘climate scientists™’ like to act-up and role play god ‘saving the world’, so why shouldn’t mere actors and actresses play at being ‘climate scientists™’.
It seem like a good fit to me.
30
For the first time in some 35 years there were no wasps on the windfall apples; no need to turn them gently to see how many wasps were hollowing them out before picking them up as a treat for the horses.
Didn’t really notice this at the time but then I read about neonicitinoids and the recent study prompted by the huge reduction in insects getting splattered on car windscreens and that made me think about it. I must ask my neighbour what pesticides (insecticide) he used on his crops this year as apart from a few early season wasps there were none through the summer.
I haven’t time right now to explain what I have read about neonicitinoids but there is currently little doubt in my mind that these or whatever else has caused the catastrophic drop in insect numbers it a very serious threat to us all. Infinitely more serious than the manufactured and pretty much non-existent
global warmingclimate change scare.Every year swallows nest in the barn I use as an office – started years ago and I have to leave the door open for them – although the pair raised three broods this year I wonder if they were affected by the drop in insect numbers. Did they achieve sufficient body weight to make the long flight back to Africa.
I wonder how the bat population that lives in the roof is doing ?
I am convinced we need to raise awareness of this as the recorded drop in insect numbers and what I have myself seen poses a very real threat to us all.
143
I can assure you Roger that as a daily motorcyclist the insect/bug population is thriving going by the carnage on the motorbike and my person. 🙂
200
Perhaps they are aiming for you?
40
Like moths to a flame…..a flaming what I don’t know.
50
I’ll send you some insects if you want , no shortage here .
90
Roger @ #3
Be very careful what you wish for Roger!
Blaming human produced chemicals for nearly every unusual event or what seems an unusual event in your local natural world and environment particularly if one doesn’t get to see the overall picture [ the “overall picture” fortunately supplied here by our posters from a very wide geographical and biological and environmental set of locations ] can provide some seriously wrong impressions , impressions that the greens in particular will immediately demand action on WITHOUT ever doing any deep research on and / or they will procure some deliberately false research so as to achieve their aims of keeping the population frightened and preferably ignorant..
As they are now doing right now against the chemical “Roundup” aka Glyphosate in the USA at present.
“Roundup” is not the hard left communistic greens real target.
Monsanto, the corporation is their target and the consequences of losing one of the safest and best herbicides against weed control in the food crop producing areas of the world are of no concern to the high living, very well financed and paid elitist western greens who don’t give a damn about the survival and the most basic food needs of poorest people across the world in all nations..
I think here of DDT.
Rachel Carson’s book “Silent spring” that set off the greens and environmentalists war against DDT, the only effective and really mammalian safe insecticide that could be and was used against the malarial mosquito when there were no real alternatives to controlling malaria in the early 1970’s is now regarded in most knowledgeable circles as little more than a biased, bigoted , very badly and sometimes corruptly researched publication and in some sections close to that” F” word we are not allowed to say here.
On the basis of what Carson’s book claimed about the dangers of DDT to raptors and their supposed thinning egg shells due to stress [ any raptor parents are going to get very badly stressed if you have city based green do gooders who are totally ignorant of nature climbing up to their nest to handle the eggs and chicks as happened in this Carson case ] the greens began an all out war against the use of DDT to fight malaria and its mosquito vector.
One prominent malaria researcher of the time later claimed that like Small pox, they were only about three years away from eliminating Malaria from this world when DDT was banned.
And banned primarily despite vast amounts of research and scientific data showing that DDT was the safest mammalian insecticide around, by the first administrator of the American EPA, William Ruckelshaus, who just went ahead and signed the legislation that banned DDT despite the large amount of advice against banning DDT and despite the huge amount of evidence of the very beneficial effects of DDT on health and food supplies and etc particularly amongst the malarial prone nations of the world.
Most of the rest of the world except for India and a couple of other nations, followed the American lead.
The World Health Organisation has since claimed that the 25 to 30 year ban on DDT has cost the lives through avoidable deaths from malaria of an estimated 50 million people mostly in the poorest countries of the world and mostly the lives of children.
There is no doubt that DDT was misused and sprayed in enormous tonnages onto everything and every crop to control insect pests [ we did that ourselves using the first aerial spraying of DDT from old converted WW2 Tiger Moths back in the mid 1950’s to control red legged earth mite that was destroying a valuable medic crop pasture ]
Limiting the use of DDT and effectively banning it from broad acre spraying would have solved any problems from DDT residues instead of an straight out ban which as above is now calculated to cost the lives of some 50 million souls, mostly young children from avoidable deaths due to malaria.
And the same protocols can be used to day.
Careful research and appropriate limits on how, when and where and what on the highly beneficial to mankind crop insect, crop fungal and crop and animal diseases control, all can be kept in check leading a better fed and much healthier human population.
Of course it is always interesting to see all sorts of individuals who are dead set against the use of chemicals of any sort in food production and disease control slapping on vast amounts of make up chemicals , most untested, and swallowing all sorts of pills made from all sorts of chemicals when feeling a bit off, garnishing their food with lots of untested natural products some of which are quite toxic, filling their vehicles with a highly flammable, extremely dangerous as a gas, non breathable except in low concentrations, gasoline fuels and a cause of lung problems from continuous exposure to the fumes.
Then they drive on and want a huge amount of chemically created asphalt outside of their front doors and businesses that gives off quite toxic fumes when heated strongly by the Sun so they can come and go in their vehicles that are loaded with and outfitted inside with all sorts of chemically produced materials that give off heavy fumes if and when the vehicle is locked and sealed.
They then paint their houses in what are often quite toxic chemicals called paints. [ the first US nuclear submarines had major illnesses amongst the crew after a couple of weeks submerged until it was discovered that the paints used for decades by the American navy in its ships and submarines gave off quite toxic fumes to which the crews were exposed for weeks at a time whilst submerged.]
And then of course the purchase of a housing block on a nice prominent position with a good natural rock base that provides an excellent base for a substantial house just happens to to be prime situation for the occupants of the house to be exposed to long periods of of quite measurable levels of radioactive Radon gases that are emitted from most granitic rocks.
Western Green and Environmentalist Hypocrisy and bigotry on a grand scale is something that is slowly being recognised today as one of the most prominent and most destructive to society characteristics of the entire western Green Blob.
Life ain’t so simple and we along with all other natural life at every level have adapted very well and will continue to adapt to just about everything that this old Planet and the natural world it has created can throw at us and every other living biological creature that has ever existing
With just a bit of care We as a species like all species on this planet are trying to make our life and our existence as a species a bit more comfortable , we try to keep well fed and we try to make sure that despite all those other species trying to gain domination. we remain free from being done over by somebody or something else that thinks it has a better right to use the planet’s resources than we do.
And for that as a species without any natural weapons or defences, just our brains and our intellect we need to keep right on trying to stay in front of all those other innumerable species using chemicals our minds have created if necessary and our protections in housing and medical advances and so many other etc’s to stay in front of the slathering mob behind intent on bringing our species and who are always there right behind us and bringing up, so far, in our rear.
[ Here ends the Epistle/ ]
211
Re DDT, the banning of this highly effective and cheap insecticide was the work of Monsanto. They had a replacement but much dearer product and engaged Greenpeace to donate $30M to the Nixon presidential campaign in ’72 on the condition that he legislate the banning of DDT. Money supplied by Monsanto. Deal done and the rest as they say is history. Nixon also tied foreign aid to the non-use of is alone resulted in the deaths of millions in countries that accepted the deal.
Patrick Moore was the one of the founders of Greenpeace and he left the organisation when he realised what had happened. Think he wrote a book on the episode.
92
A highly likely and potentially serious sleeper problem in the human use of chemicals today is the propensity of the current generation to get themselves extensively tattooed.
The chemicals including some chemicals and metals such as titanium used as nanoparticles in Tattooing have been known for sometime to migrate to the one of the major centres of the human immune system, the lymph glands located in the where their impact on the human body through the immune systems lymph glands is not at all known.
Nano particles now used in many industries and in paint and etc are regarded with some suspicion by the medical profession as such millionth of a metre sized particles can penetrate just about to anywhere in a biological system and may act as triggers and cell invasion paths for a whole still unknown series of human health problems.
It seems that few of the metals and chemicals used in tattooing, particularly the nano sized metal particles have ever been researched for their potential long term effects as in over years or decades, on the human body.
What Happens to Tattoo Ink After It’s Injected into Your Skin?
40
Murray, I don’t want to be persnickety but do you have a few references that might back up your assertions?
What was Monsanto’s replacement chemical?
There have been many green saboteurs trying to rewrite history on this issue.
So Patrick Moore wrote a book on the episode? Name the book.
Was it “Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout: The Making of a Sensible Environmentalist”.
Have you read it? If so, please give us the quote where Patrick Moore actually presents the evidence for what you assert.
This is what George Monbiot (of all people) had to say about the DDT “ban”:
http://www.monbiot.com/2010/11/10/a-charming-falsehood/
Tricky Dicky nowhere to be found.
I might be wrong. Show me.
31
I suspect that Murray is alluding to “Pymethrium”, if I get the spelling right.
30
.
“Pyrethrum”
And its derivatives;
—————–
As usual things aren’t always what they seem.
Some years ago a new fungicide I think, [ its two decades ago and my memory banks are ageing ] got a rapid reputation for killing aquatic life such as frogs and etc at very low concentrations which caused a lot of angst with the probability that the new product would be totally banned.
Some fast footwork in a research department somewhere and it was discovered that the active constituent chemical which had been thoroughly tested was not responsible for the Aquatic life deaths.
The actual carrier of the chemical in which, as with all the pills you swallow and just about every chemical one can name, the active constituent is only a small part of the total volume of the product, in this case it was found that the non active carrier oil or chemical was responsible for the aquatic deaths.
A change of the non crop affecting carrier chemical and the problem was solved and the product was continued to be used on broad acre crops.
50
Yep. Probably.
And I think he’s referring to John F Kennedy the Democrat, not Richard Nixon the Republican.
But when did they ever let facts get in the way of slime-balling a Republican?
40
Murray,
As a further follow-up, can you explain to me how the banning of DDT in the 1970s was the work of Monsanto?
My understanding is that Monsanto ceased production of DDT in 1957 for economic reasons. This occurred well before Rachel Carson’s 1962 book “Silent Spring” and well before environmental concerns were raised.
The timeline that you’re trying to establish needs to be clarified.
31
No shortage here Roger. We killed several queen wasps over winter as they were hibernating in our wood shed. They woke up in the warmth of the house after bringing logs in…phew. There was one we didn’t manage to catch. I’m hoping that our chooks will help to keep numbers down in future, if we don’t lose any more in broad daylight to the foxes.
We have a marvellous assortment of flies, mossies, moths, beetles, ants by the billion and an array of arachnids to give you nightmares, including absolutely enormous huntsmen.
100
Let’s not forget the snakes either…tigers, eastern browns, copperheads and red-bellied blacks have all put in appearances here.
Then we also have wombats (DownUnder equivalent of the badger and a total nuisance digging holes for livestock to fall into), possums (squirrel equivalent) and a huge number of birds, some very attractive and welcome and one type, the sulphur-crested cockatoo. This one is a large complete thug, with a dreadful screech too. They do immense damage to fruit crops and come over in their deafening hundreds.
91
Gosh, I’m in moderation! I guess it’s because I mentioned our various wildlife and included the red-bellied bl@ck snake! I can’t see any other reason. Oh well. 🙂
60
Annie:
References to politicians are always censured.
71
My mother’s term ‘as bl@ck as the Ace of Spades’ might apply?
30
If you’re talking about politicians, that would have been a reference to Galahs, not cockatoos.
50
Well where I live it’s both the sulphur crested and pink cockatoos (Galahs) that do the most damage. Not as much as the Galahs in Canberra though.
The Canberran varieties do seem to have dual nationality though, but refreshingly seem to have the same kamikaze instincts as the pink ones though.
00
Sulphur-crested cockatoo used to dive bomb my cattle dog cross, shouting “woof woof”. Then it would swagger up and down in front of her. It miscalculated the distance and the amazing cattle dog reaction time. Same result with possums.
90
Speaking of Sulphur Crested Cockatoos, I have this theory about Magpies dive bombing.
We have a Magpie couple in a large tree two homes across from ours and the two Magpies (male and female, when together) regularly use our back yard for worms and grubs, and they totally ignore us, wandering around with impunity right up close to the both of us. The pair have been here since we moved to Rockhampton in 2010, so I might think they had already been here for years. Here, be aware that Magpies mate for life. We are now well beyond the nesting season, and the youngster, still fluffy, is venturing out occasionally with either Mum or Dad.
Each year at this time, the male Magpie considers it sport to dive bomb the postman, and for Months he will swoop on the hapless fellow, who just ignores it now, as he has a sturdy helmet, and as I have seen, the Magpie never actually pecks him, just swoops close and squawks loudly.
Okay, to the theory.
The Magpie is the alpha bird in this large coverage area I have noticed. Every other bird, every single one of them can fly through this area without a single problem. ‘Jack’ (as we have named HIM) just sits on his tall pole in next door’s back yard, and watches them fly be or does not even watch at all.
All except for one species of bird that is, because as soon as one of them shows up, both Jack and his female, both noisily, and with venom, will both attack this one species only, swooping and chasing, sometimes for as much as a minute across vast areas of sky, chasing the hapless bird away, and both Magpies are faster flying, so they get many attacks in on this one species of bird.
That bird is the Sulphur Crested Cockatoo.
Okay then, back to the poor old ‘Postie’, and keep in mind here that the postie is the only human I have ever seen jack swoop upon, not one other person at all. He wears, as they all do now, a high vis outer garment, and also has a flag at the back of his bike, as they all do.
Both the high vis garment and the fluttering flag are both the same yellowish sulphur colour as is common on those Sulphur Crested Cockies.
It’s so obvious because the Postie is the only one swooped upon, as are those cockies as well.
So, there it is. It’s not something new, as I have been watching it now for more than seven of those nesting ‘seasons’, and it’s the only times it happens, just during that nesting season. At all other times, Jack ignores the Postie, and as he is always here year round, he always has a go at any hapless cockie who ventures into his territory.
I just thought it odd, and put two and two together.
Tony.
160
I’ve seen that too Tony….magpies seeing off tbe SC cockies. They also swoop near the cat at this time of the year; fair enough! Unfortunately the magpies don’t help the small birds too much here. BTW… the cat is employed to catch rats and mice, which he does well except when we feed him too much.
For NH readers…the SH magpies look and act similarly to yours but are not the same. I guess they evolved to fit the same slot in nature.
Speaking of cockatoos…we sometimes have a group of those gorgeous black cockatoos visiting. They come for the hakea seeds and I know they are here when I hear cracking sounds from our hakeas.
Back to magpies…they have a wonderful carolling song a lot of the time, occasionally they screech and sqwark…not so nice!
60
Magpies do have a lovely ‘warble’, but far and away the best music from any bird at all is from the Pied Butcher Bird, the male call and the female response, and the solitary calls of both, and we have them around here also, as well as the mindless and annoying squawk from the Mudlarks.
Three black and white species with distinctly different sounds.
We also have those black cockatoos as well, and I’m amazed at how much flapping they do for very little flight distance gained, very slow flyers.
Our Magpies leave them alone, so it’s not the slow flying cockies per se, just that Sulphur Crested one. It just seemed so odd.
Tony.
60
I often get to watch ‘Jack’ in our back yard. He just struts around slowly. Occasionally he’ll cock his head to one side, then take a step or two, cock his head, one more step and peck the ground, more often than not coming up with a grub or worm. It’s almost as if he’s listening for them. He loves those little lizards too.
Tony.
60
Magpie sings like R2D2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0T_4MO_v0o
40
Absolutely agree on the pied butcher bird song, Tony, it has to be the most beautiful birdsong of the Australian bush. Carolling magpies do come a close second though.
50
Tony as a postie I’ll agree to your theory as long as magpies can distinguish within that range of colour, I’d suggest the sound of the motorbike might attract them more much like the dogs acting out, also there’s definitely certain aggressive genetic family lines within the magpie families with some areas being worse than others, this is a known fact over decades amongst posties.
While some magpies will strike the head quite hard one particular family would do this and go for the eyes under the helmet visor too!, a rolled up old magazine bound with rubber bands is the only defence in that area and a bit disturbing also.
30
Tony where I live it is the magpies that are harassed and driven away by about three other types of bird including the willy wag tail.
In most countries of the world the magpie is a declared noxious pest.
10
You need a few “Rainbow Laurikeets”to sort out the cockatoo problem.They don’t care about the size of the cockys.
40
We have rainbow lorikeets and I’m afraid ours don’t 🙁
30
Willy Wagtails are fearless of taking on any bird, my favourite too. 🙂
40
Keep those Red Bellied Blacks, Annie;
They are apparently resistant to the deadly Browns poisons and are cannaballistic on the Browns according to the herpetologists.
I have seen a couple of reports where when farmers moved to new area, they were somewhat inundated with the deadly browns so they headed back to their original holding, rounded up a few red bellied blacks there and took them to their new property.
A couple of years later and the Browns were well under control.
Red bellied Blacks fangs are also apparently quite short and have problems penetrating even through socks and etc, not that I would give them any opportunity if I see them first of trying this particular characteristic out on myself.
The Browns are the ones you do get rid of as they are so aggressive and so deadly and even the herpetologists suggest that.
40
Yes, definitely ROM. We’ve seen only one of them the last few years but hope they are just hiding. The last snake we saw was a very large brown…shudder!
20
Badger equivalent to a wombat? Maybe in their ways of digging but a Badger is one mean sucker and prey for very few one on one. I found a new respect for dachshunds when I found out they were originally bred for going down into the holes after badgers.
30
Catch a sulphur crest if you can.
Paint it a very bright fluro purple or the ugliest, brightest, most revolting colour that is as far removed from a sulphur crest colours as you can and let it go into the marauding flock sulphur crests.
Apparently panic on a very large scale indeed reigns supreme amongst the sulphur crested flock and they get into maximum overdrive, flight wise, noise wise and speed wise to escape from the unfortunate but now apparently, non ethically related cocky who is likewise doing his very best to keep up with the screeching, howling fast departing mob.
40
“Catch a sulphur crest if you can. Paint it a very bright fluro purple or the ugliest, brightest, most revolting colour”
What happens to the poor bird you’ve painted? Is he ostracised for life or does he die from paint poisoning like that golden girl in the James Bond movie?
On the other hand, does this mean that sulphur-crested cockatoos are racist?
30
Its rough out there in Nature and the bird world.
I can watch each morning out through our kitchen window at the various pairs and families of the magnificent wild Crimson and Eastern Rosellas arguing over who has first rights to the seed block I have permanently hanging about 5 metres outside our back door under the patio.
And the feathers on occasion do fly with regular beat ups by the Crimsons on the Easterns.
I am also informed in no uncertain manner when the seed block has disappeared which is about every couple of days which places a bit of pressure on the exchequer financing those seed blocks.
But the pleasure of watching those magnificent birds going about their business is worth it.
There is a regular turnover of pairs of Rosellas plus newbie chicks getting instructions on how to get on the seed brick dole without having to go to the trouble of having to find your own seed.
The local town sparrows use to congregate in their dozens under the seed block to get at all the seed the Rosellas as do all parrots regularly throw over their shoulders so as to speak.
40
GD:
What else would a purple coloured screeching bird brain do but go into politics? I point to the last 3 months in Federal parliament as proof.
60
“On the other hand, does this mean that sulphur-crested cockatoos are racist?”
Yes.
30
Hi Annie,
are you surrounded by arable – we are.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/scientists-urge-action-against-insect-decline/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/08/26/windscreen-phenomenon-car-no-longer-covered-dead-insects/
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/oh-no/543390/
http://moraybeedinosaurs.co.uk/neonicotinoid/Declines%20in%20insectivorous%20birds%20are%20associated%20with%20high%20neonicotinoid.pdf
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/where-have-all-insects-gone
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50 years ago when I first started work in agriculture a big problem was wireworms (click beetle larvae) and leather jackets (crane fly larvae) among many other insect pests in grassland which provided good feeding for many species of bird. Over the 50 years many of the smaller grassland farmers have gone out of business or converted to arable farming. Also many of the remaining grass farmers have taken to growing maize for silage. In both cases the insect pests have not been tolerated and there was extensive use of gammaBHC, Dursban and other treatments either as seed dressings or overall soil treatments. This has resulted in a marked reduction in insect populations so that is much less common to have a problem when ploughing ground for an arable crop.
This has been a dilemma for farmers who are having to compete in world market, yet are expected to be environmentally friendly.
Another dilemma is the current move in the EU to ban glyphosate. This is an essential product for use when growing crops by minimal cultivation, which is done to sequester more carbon in the soil. Ploughing as practised by organic farmers has a side effect of causing more CO2 to be lost to the atmosphere.
How can the farmer get anything right?
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Hi Annie, my reply with some links is in moderation …. but we are surrounded by arable – wonder if you are?
Now sold off most of the farm and looking for another in the West Country but I have always avoided herbicides and insecticides.
R
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Our area is largely beef-rearing country; Black Angus and Herefords but other breeds are seen too and crosses. There are increasing numbers of sheep and quite a few are Dorpers and Wiltipoll to save shearing. I daresay this will continue while lamb prices are good and footrot doesn’t rear its ugly head too much. There is rather a lot of herbicide spraying to renovate pastures…we haven’t done it as we dislike the idea very much but we are now faced with weeds that aren’t popular. Capeweed is one of the worst in the area, especially since the drought and the Black Saturday Firestorm. Our animals seem to do pretty well on it all though and we don’t overstock. Our little farm is quite small.
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Annie,
Those poor queen wasps!
We will tell the Green inspectorate.
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Go for it! The local council is encouraging removing wasps as we have so many.
On a happier note, we have had incredible numbers of honey bees for months now as one lot of blossom after another keeps them happy. We don’t keep hives as I have had a strong allergic reaction to a sting but I do like bees.
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In moderation again but can’t quite work out why.
Never mind 🙂
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You are probably on the automatic moderation list by now, due to previous errors in language.
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That’s what happens to people who are foul-mouthed.
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TRM…I could understand ‘fowl’ but not ‘foul’!
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On my little hobby farm I run 160 ewes, leave rams in all the time, and used to mark up to 140 lambs a year (87.5%). I used 1080 and 2 alpacas to control foxes until a little over 12 months ago when 85 baits went in 16 nights and there were obvious signs that lambs were being taken. In desperation I picked up all the baits, retired the alpacas and put 2 maremma dogs into the paddock.
The next two mornings both dogs were completely stuffed but then on the third morning one of the dogs was dead. Hit by a brown. So now there was only one dog. However, over the last 12 months I have marked 342 lambs. No, I kid you not. 342. Obviously a lot of ewes have lambed twice in that period so say 2 “lambings” at 107% average. Over the last 8 years I had never had 2 “lambings” in 1 year before.
Annie, if you have a problem with foxes, I cannot recommend guardian dogs highly enough. It is not unusual for them to look after chooks, ducks, etc.
Picking up a new pup next week. Called the old dog Nothing, so the new pup will be Something.
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Interesting experiences Hat Rack. Galling to lose precious stock.
Next door has Maremmas that tend to bark too much and keep me awake. Better since I asked them to deal with it. If a dog barks then one should investigate why, then tell it to be quiet.Barking then means something real to check and not just a nuisance bored animal. It’s put me off Maremmas and when one of their’s came onto our place our small flock were distinctly frightened.
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Those guardian dogs do a good job on acreage but try living next door to one , nothing but constant barking .
Magpies around our place get a feed of bread and in return they don’t swoop us but the 100 or so bike riders that use the local road get hammered , doesn’t matter what they wear or what colour .
Perhaps I shouldn’t have started rewarding them for the swooping , I’m a bad man .
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Merammas and a few late nights with a spotlight and a Tikka 270 will sort the foxes out….dead flat trajectory up to 300m and pretty decent hitting power will sort most red coloured varmints….
Funny story about foxes….a friends dad had new hearing aids. He was lying in bed one night during summer at 1am after newly acquiring said hearing aids and enjoying hearing crickets chirping. Now unbeknownst to him, his son at the other end of the house had heard the chooks squarking and spotted a fox attacking rhe chook coop. The son discharged his 22-250, sorted the fox permenantly, and the fingernail marks of his father were afterward marked in the ceiling for years……. 🙂
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Steve a .270 would remove all trace of a fox and bury whatever remained a bit too much thump methinks .
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Annie,
I am curious. How could the queen wasps wake up in the warmth of the house, if you had killed them, “as they were hibernating”, in your wood shed?
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I should have re-phrased that RW. The wasps hibernated in the woodshed on logs that were subsequently brought into the warm house! Geddit? 😉
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“the recent study prompted by the huge reduction in insects”
It is never a good idea to extrapolate the results of one local “study” too much.
If your swallows raised THREE broods they are obviously having no problem finding food in their nesting territory.
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Forgot to add this link:
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/10/germany-s-insects-are-disappearing
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Turns out emitting trace amounts of Co2 is a truely lousy way of killing tree lobsters …
Lord Howe tree lobster officially back from dead
http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2017-10-06/extinct-lord-howe-stick-insect-back-from-dead/8984902
Yes, a tree lobster is an insect.
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Are they the same as sky prawns?
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Shamus has a lobster, and Murphy is having two lobsters, so betwixt the two of them, they are having tree lobsters.
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Groan!
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You are way to kind!:-)
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My outside lights that run all night have their usual collection of spider webs and trapped insects. But it’s getting too cold for them now so I can clean it all off and be assured of no more until spring.
What worries me more is that on our last trip to our favorite getaway spot perched up on a cliff overlooking the Pacific Ocean there was scarcely a pelican to be seen where in prior years there was a steady procession of them going up and down the coast all day. Maybe I should be even more concerned that no one I asked about it appeared to have noticed the difference.
In the interest of complete disclosure, that was already maybe 5 years or more ago. So maybe, just maybe I should be prudent and not set off alarm bells because I’m ignorant of the current situation. After all, I wouldn’t want to repeat the mistake of the global warming alarmists.
Look, over there! There’s a wolf! And over there is another one.
Oh my… Look, there are wolves everywhere. There’s one under every rock I turn over. Maybe I should quit turning over rocks?
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“Oh my… Look, there are wolves everywhere. There’s one under every rock I turn over. Maybe I should quit turning over rocks?”
That would be good!
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But Will, turning over rocks is so much fun.
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Falling on them when DRONK not so much fun! 🙂
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The solution is obvious, don’t get drunk or if you do, have a designated walker. 😉
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I used my walker; but it overturns easily also! Now what?
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Here I observe many small creatures carefully overturning leaves to get to the delicious insect thingies below! What a truly marvelous planet Earth! 🙂
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Amen to that.
I’ve even seen a squirrel come down into my back yard and break off a big piece of some kind of non-mushroom yellowish looking fungus growing in the grass and pop it straight into its cheek to take home. I hope it knows what it’s doing because you couldn’t pay me enough to eat any fungus that grows in my yard.
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How much you wan for food testing squirrels? Is shipping free?
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Roy, did you ever take a look at those coastal water temperature maps to see if the temperature of the coastal waters in the vicinity of your getaway spot had changed.?
If there had been a shift in the coastal currents and therefore in the local water temperatures, the pelican’s fish tucker might have moved on because the fish might not have been able to find theirown usual food species due to changes in the local water temperatures and shifts in the coastal currents and therefore changes in the local water’s nutrient load.
Those coastal currents shift around all the time which also means the local water temperatures shift as well.
Just ask any keen surfers here about water temperature shifts along the coast.
eg; Australia’s coastal water temperatures.
If you select animations in this page [ URL= ; http://oceancurrent.imos.org.au ] you can then select a coastal site out of a dozen or so panels and watch the animation of the currents and water temps in that selected panel of coastal Australia.
The USA probably has a few dozen of such coastal current and water temperature animation sites.
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I don’t know about the water temperature but I suspected that food shortage in the vicinity was a very good reason the pelicans were not there.
The alarming thing to me was that no one I asked about it had noticed the difference. Maybe I’m unique. I don’t know. But I pay attention to my environment wherever I go. I even notice changes in power lines like installation of big capacitor arrays to correct the power factor. When I landed in Honolulu one of the first things I noticed was that there wasn’t a single blankety-blank seagull to be seen. For the entire week we were in Hawaii I enjoyed being near the ocean and not having their noise all day long. How many people notice that? I don’t have an answer. But I did notice it just from taking in everything around me as a matter of habit.
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Careful Rodger – another claim of “cause and effect” without any data or evidence to back up your theory – straight out of the Green Marxist handbook.
Having had a lifetime (literally – over 50 years) as an agricultural scientist in the commercial pest management industry both in Australia and in the UK (and many parts of SE Asia) I can assure you that I have heard all this before.. I fought the very bitter Organo Chlorine battle with the media and the Green groups here in Australia in the 70’s and 80’s with some success for a time before we were able to develop alternative methods of termite control that did not necessitate long-term soil treatment. If we had failed hundreds of houses would have been severely damaged, for no environmental of human health reason.
I presume you are talking about Vespula germanica, the European Wasp? These usually construct their nests in cavities in stone retaining walls, going back into the soil, or in nests deep in banks of soil along ditches. They are very prone to the vagaries of weather, especially long periods of rain or extreme cold that can decimate or eliminate whole colonies.
It may well be that the reduction in population is entirely natural and has nothing to do with man, just like Gerbil Worming.
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Roger – I had no shortage of wasps or hornets this summer or early Fall. As the weather is now colder than they like, the buzzing stinging fliers have retreated into slumber, or whatever it is they do when the temps drop. But whether trying to grill and eat a small meal, pick the vegetables in the garden, or trim the various bushes and trees (including the peaches and plums we grow)there was always the presence of wasps, hornets and bees.
Of course, there are only 3 windmills nearby, all about 1 to 1.5 miles away, and no large commercial farms for quite a distance. The are is mostly urban/suburban in landscape and build, and plenty of pesticides and herbicides are applied by local landscapers and home-/business- owners. Not much in my immediate area, as it would bother the dogs and hens, but enough to knock back invasive and noxious weeds. Fly strips, those sticky-gooey tapes that tend to entangle my hair more often than flies, work for most of my pesticide needs, including the stinging insect varieties.
No, I noticed no dearth of wasps or hornets. In fact, this year I was astounded to find a total of 12 different praying mantises in the various small beds and gardens about the 2 yards I care for – usually there is only enough insect life for 3 or 4 of these cold-eyed hunters.
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KinkyKeith November 8, 2017 at 8:00 am
For any gas mixture the sensible heat, your internal energy, spontaneously ‘powers’, your pushes, transfer of power flux (W/m²) of both thermal conduction and EMR ‘radiance’. However both power transfers are strictly limited by the surround (environment) of that local mass sensible heat. Thermal conductance flux; is by definition limited by some (ΔT), high T minus low T. in a linear manner. EMR flux is also limited by some(ΔT) x (highly nonlinear function), of both T and frequency (F), as limited by Planck’s equation. That spontaneous flux conductive or EMR, must always go to zero as (ΔT), goes to zero!
For a gas at constant volume or constant pressure; most has been well measured. In opposition however Earth’s atmosphere is at nowhere and at notime Cp or Cv! Therefore meteorological simple, straightforward answer must always be the wrong answer!
Temperature is but a measurement of the state of mass. Temperature itself is not a potential for any ‘action’, but is the measurement of the state potential (sensible heat) for action (flux). EMR ‘radiance” is similar but is only related to measurement ‘temperature’ for spontaneous ‘action’!
The 2.4 GHz spectral ‘radiance’ of your microwave oven magnetron is not even a function of temperature. Such can easily apply ‘action’ to a cup of coffee already at a higher ‘temperature’ because the cuppa has much lower ‘radiance’ at 2.4 Ghz.
All the best!-will-
PS. Work is in units of force x distance (Newton-meters), or pressure/distance (Pascals/meter). while W/m²(·)W/m² = flux²; … perhaps => Action density in fourspace! 🙂 What do these fools mean by the term “ENERGY”? Are we having fun yet?
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Will ….. does this recent paper have merit?
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/new-insights-on-physical-nature-of.html
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el gordo November 12, 2017 at 10:27 am
Yes indeed excellent ‘research’ on what others have written. Little actual ‘search\effort’ of understanding of the current physical. My complaint is the treatment of “temperature’ as a ‘dimension’. Temperature is but a measurement of mass sensible heat, never orthogonal (independent of) to mass itself.
We have three orthogonal directions (length, 1/length = interval). Time, 1/time (the cyclical) seems orthogonal. Mass seems to be orthogonal but the concept of density\pressure is not. EMR ‘radiance’ deliberately normalized to 3D + time is likely a dimension for the electromagnetic. The Ned Nikolov* and Karl Zeller paper must be considered by all interested in how Earth’s atmosphere now operates. By the time any Earthling ‘understands’; God will have changed it all! 🙂 Gots to keep clever critters guessing; or give it all to the Roaches
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Thanks, a couple of good points worth thinking about.
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Does this recent paper have merit(Nikolov and Zeller 2016)?
It seems to me that the paper is a restatement of the gravitational green house theory, which has been discussed at length on the blog previosly.
I was initially attracted to the theory, which in essence is an application of the universal gas laws. However my analysis of BOM balloon data, particularly from the coastal Antarctic sites (Mawson,Davis and Casey in the depths of winter) has persuaded me that the atmosphere would be isothermal, if left undisturbed.
So, if my analysis is correct, Nikolov and Zeller is rubbish. Other wise my analysis is rubbish!
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You maybe right, Peter, but Stephen Wilde thinks the idea has merit.
‘I’ve been promulgating the mass /density/ gravity aspect since 2008 in multiple blogs.’
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el gordo.
My long reply got lost, sadley
Short reply:
Stephen Wilde relies on the Ideal Gas Laws. Gas Laws say that the atmospheric lapse rate should be 9.8C/km. In realty it is not 9.8C/km. At best it is 7C/km in the tropics and about 3C/km (worst case) in Antarctica. The lower troposphere is isothermal.
Make of that what you will. For myself I think that the Gravitational Theory is Invalid.
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Okay thanks Peter, I’ll accept that.
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Peter C November 12, 2017 at 10:48 pm
None of the Earth’s atmosphere is isothermal (constant temperature)! Way way to much local wind. All of Earth’s atmosphere tends to isentropic (constant entropy), Thus any atmospheric mass may spontaneously move to a different location even radially. No work is done except for mass accelerations. Earth’s gravitational field does not accelerate its atmosphere it instead compresses it and maintains that compression in a manner that prevents heat conduction radially as long as proper lapse is maintained; and indeed can be calculated from the gas laws. The reason for the two to one variance in measured Earth’s lapse is do to the vast latent heat capability (2500 J/gm) of airborne H2O as such changes through all 5 phases constantly but in diurnal cycles. The US standard lapse is but a committee agreement to calibrate all barometric altimeters to the same standard. Aircraft flying at different barometric altitude cannot intersect at any lat\long. Such standard has no other physical purpose; and does not represent any actual altitude anywhere.
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I meant to say;The lower stratosphere is isothermal.
This is best seen in the Bureau of Meteorolgy balloon data from the Antartic bases (Mawson, Casey and Davis) because the tropopasue is lower there (about 11km).
http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/observations/aerological-diagrams/
At 37S, where I live the tropopause is a bit higher but the stratosphere is still isothermal.
One interesting thing I have noticed is that the tropopause is colder near the equator (-85C) than at the Antartic (-70C).
The gravitational theory would be valid if parcels of air moved adibatically from the surface to the tropopause and back again.. However as Will says there is a whole lot of mixing that goes on as air parcels move up and down
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Peter C Nov,13, 2017 at 8:14 am
“I meant to say;The lower stratosphere is isothermal.”
Isn’t that the definition of the tropopause; at least with respect to altitude? The gravitational lapse ceases at pressure below 10kPa. Molecules to far apart; molecular velocity dominates, rather than rate of collision, for a Boltzmann temperature. (kTb noise)! 🙂
“However as Will says there is a whole lot of mixing that goes on as air parcels move up and down”
Perhaps I have it all wrong! Can you explain your distinction between words “adiabatic” and “isentropic”? The ratio between Cv and Cp (diatomic 7/5) is also called the ‘isentropic exponent” (kappa).
All the best!-will-
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“What do these fools mean by the term “ENERGY”?”
The term “energy” (Joules) is scientifically the accumulation (storage) of power (Watts) over some time interval (integral of power) in Joules (Watt-seconds). A fine mil-standard Horse , pulling force (Newtons) can proved power while doing ‘work’ (moving at that force) of up to 746 Watts (one horsepower)! Same horse chained to tree has same force on tree (Newtons) but no power, only sweat, to do ‘work’. Nor does said horse retain ability to conserve food ‘energy’ while sweating. Capish! Where the hell is any academic “conservation” of energy??
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Try http://www.feynmanlectures.caltech.edu/I_04.html.
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Curious George Nov,13, 2017 at 6:24 am
From your reference R. Feynman:
Dr. Feynman is lecturing on the need for careful accounting of ‘FORCE’ when used as “Power to do Work”; if any understanding is to be had !
Unfortunately the energy unit (Joules) is somehow used interchangeably for both Power storage (Watt-seconds) and ‘Power’ physically converted to ‘Work’ through ‘Action’ (PWA) (force x distance in Joules) Plowing a meadow takes ‘work’. The ‘whatever’ of the now plowed meadow however cannot be considered the same as some storage of the power used up in the ‘action’ of ‘plowing.
Such us but an absurd academic accounting trick to fool students; requiring the invention of the term ‘entropy’, having way less physical meaning than the useful plowed meadow that has no Joules! BTW Dr. Emmy Noether
mathematically proved (1915) that ‘conservation of energy’ is not required within a gravitational field.
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I don’t think I’m Kinky but I don’t think I’ve ever had so much fun. 🙂
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joseph November 12, 2017 at 7:18 am
Just wait until we can get Joanne’s other half ‘David’ plus many others on this site to do SCIENCE; the vicious falsification of whatever your fool conjecture\political plot\etc, may be! True science belongs to those with sufficient personal integrity to admit “I do not know”
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Well, I guess that makes me a true scientist on two levels. 1) I know, that there is a lot of “stuff” that I do not really know anything about. 2) I also know, that there must be even more “additional stuff” that I don’t even realise exists, within my sphere of comprehension.
My father taught me all I needed to know about science, in two questions: “Why is that, the way that it is?” And, “Why do I think that I am the only person to ask that question?”
20
I find the hardest part is getting some self appointed arrogant academic to even admit that their WAG, conjecture, hypothesis, theorem is part of science; rather than some personal religious belief! … If asked “How can that be falsified; what would be sufficient for you?”; they stomp off ina huff at such gross impertinence. Their WAG of spontaneous EMR flux in opposing directions remains non-scientific yet keeps the CAGW scam alive!
All the best!-will-
22
are the MSM ever going to get over the fact that Trump won the US election ?
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No, because there is a concerted effort to remove him as the one world schemers fear his influence.
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November 8th is the 1st year anniversary of Trumps victory so Powerline blog compiled some videos titled THIS DAY IN MEDIA FREAKOUTS, funny stuff.
Also for a great collection of political cartoons and memes look at THE WEEK IN PICTURES: CHAINSAW BAYONET EDITION, and no I won’t attempt to link. 😉
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Arrggghhh the Powerline blog link to This Day In Media Freakouts put me in moderation, what the hell is up with this link and the filter?
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Try Trump’s win: Top Media Meltdowns, liberals freak out – donald trumps electoral win #1
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Rachel Madcow’s election night meltdown.Priceless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVogLdbfOfQ
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MSM cannot adapt!
But video bloggers are fighting back. Check out this piece by Pointman, then view a few of the acts, especially the hilarious Diamond and Silk duo.
Also have a listen to the Ashokan Farewell and try to ignore the slightly annoying video that plays on the side.
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No Robert.
They won’t quit because it’s all they’ve got.
Much is being made about Donna Brazil outing Hillary and her campaign. Some think that Donna is trying to clear the decks of Hillary because Michelle Obama is going to run in 2020. They could be right because the democrat bench is just that weak.
In the meantime, with relatively little fanfare, President Trump is fulfilling his promises concerning judiciary appointments. That was at the top of my list why I voted for the man and he is coming through. IMO in the long run that aspect is the most important of all in determining the direction my country will take in the future. Thus it is essential the Republicans hold on to their majority in the Senate where judicial appointments are confirmed or denied. So all of those that don’t like the Republican(s) running for senate seats in their states need to remember that and hold their nose and vote in 2018 even if the nominee is a RINO so that this administration can fill as many judicial seats as possible with justices that will abide by the Constitution. The POTUS laid out a plan for judicial nominations deciding to concentrate the on the appointments to the two higher courts, the Supreme and Appellate courts. The reasoning being that there is just so much time and those higher courts can overturn the decisions coming from the Circuit court level. The plan is working but can only be sustained if the Republicans hold on to their majority in the Senate.
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My favorite Trump win compilation .
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=grD_IINiH9c
10
To rid a grid of diesel, warmists try,
Not soon, but with a long, long, long goodbye.
To turn on Trump and falsely him accuse,
Is how the media create fake news.
As Greens spread misery throughout the land,
More grids run short and fail to meet demand.
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A sonnet in six lines.
Lovely iambic pentameter.
Do you have the final eight Ruairi?
30
real headline:
“New Zealand’s New Leader Wants to Kill Off Carbon”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-06/green-dream-risks-energy-security-as-kiwis-aim-for-zero-carbon
Coal and gas-fired plants supplied 16 percent of New Zealand’s electricity generation in 2016, according to the International Energy Agency, with nearly 60 percent coming from hydropower.
Removing those fossil fuels from the grid may spark supply-security issues that policy makers or regulators need to address, according to Stevenson.
New Zealand’s reliance on hydropower leaves prices vulnerable to spikes amid dry weather as lake levels drop and coal- and gas-fired plants make up the shortfall.
. . .
Good luck over the ditch with that.
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I wonder how sensitive NZ’s hydro power is to drought?
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Very!
Power rationing has occurred but not frequently. Google indicted 1992 and 2009. I know there was consideration of a new coal fired plant ahead of the 2009 problems but it could not get the required approvals. There was rationing at the load I an familiar with on the South Island but it eventually rained.
Adding wind power to grids dominated by hydro is not as detrimental as it is in a coal dominated grid. NZ should be able to to do away with coal for about 50% increase in power price on the basis that the wind only supplies 16% of the total energy. Way less than the 3 to 4 times increase in cost with a coal dominated system. The first step in replacing coal is to install enough fast response gas to meet the peak demand so the generation can respond to ups and downs in wind. So there is enough gas plant to supply the load and the wind can get to about 30% of market share before storage of some sort is needed. Hydro already has the response capability so all that gas plant is avoided.
Unbuffered wind, meaning the system has the capacity to handle the ups and downs of the wind generation without additional cost, is an economic source of generation when the environmental hurdles for new coal generation are high.
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Ah, water in dams – the best battery there is. But of course the greenies don’t like interfering with nature.
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But they do, Robber. Let me name the ways:
1. Windmills chopping bats and birds
2. Windmills destroying our natural heritage.
3. Solar farms frying wayward flying creatures
4. Solar PV farms desecrating rural vistas.
5. Fuel build-up in national parks to a level where fire eventually clears it and kills all wildlife and mature stands of trees.
6. Lithium-ion batteries’ demand for rare earths extracted in China and third world countries with no regard to the destruction of the regional environment and local wildlife.
7. Self-important celebrity greenies imposing their huge environmental footprint on the world as they fly to far flung forums to tell the rest of mankind how to live.
8. The phasing out of traditional incandescent bulbs and replacing them with “energy efficient” compact fluorescent lighting (CFL) containing mercury which escapes and builds up in the environment with bulb breakage.
9. The phasing in of diesel motor vehicles throughout Europe on the basis that the emissions were better for the environment than their petrol equivalent. We know how that turned out.
10. The transportation of USA woodchips to the UK to fire up biomass power stations with comcommitant impacts on USA forests and world emissions of particulate matter.
Is that enough or would you like more?
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‘Recently German SAT1 television broadcast a documentary on the state of the European and German increasingly green power grid: “How secure are our power grids?” Due to the volatile and unpredictable supply of wind and solar energy, the grid has become far more unstable, the documentary warns. The news is not good:
At the 17-minute mark, Bernd Benser of GridLab-Berlin tells viewers that while grid operator Tennet had to intervene only 3 times in 2002 to avert grid instability, last year he says the number was “over 1000” times — or “three times daily”.
Notrickszone
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el gordo:
The problem is excess wind generation (at times) which has driven most of the rapid response units – CCGTs, pumped storage, hydro(reduced)- out of the market. Literally so in that 2 almost new CCGts are/were being dismantled for relocation in other countries.
This leaves them (mostly) dependent on coal fired and nuclear, and enough of it when the wind doesn’t provide. Neither of which can respond quickly enough to sudden changes, so they continue generating meaning that Germany has to get rid of excess electricity when the wind blows.
This excess has to go somewhere to keep the grid balanced, otherwise blackout. So far Germany has been able to dump excess electricity onto the grids of Poland, Czech Republic, France, the Netherlands, Austria and (though Denmark) the Swedish and Norwegian large hydro schemes. However Poland and the Czech Republic have installed phase shifting transformers which block any dumping. I am not sure if they are fully operational yet. Meanwhile France and Holland are also installing the same sort of devices. That leave Austria with its limited demand and the Baltic countries where sudden surges or dips can be handled by their “run of river’ hydro (i.e. they switch off their generators and let the water flow unused to the sea – much like Niagara where they shut off the falls every night when they turn on the hydro schemes). But the Swedish and Norwegian grids aren’t big enough to accommodate all the extra wind turbines Germany has been installing, so shortly blackouts WILL occur. (Afterall Germany can hardly invade Poland to force them to take Germany’s excess generation).
The authorities are ready with arrangements for wind farms to be paid for shutting down. This is even more profitable for the wind farm builders so the problem will get worse.
Or as R. Burns might have put it:
“Oh! what a tangled grid we weave, when specious nonsense we believe”.
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I have posted this before but just for those who dont know..
Germany has a peak demand of about 80GW
They have over 100 GW of RE installed , 50GW of wind and 43 GW of solar + biomass etc.
They have also got approx 100 GW of conventional , Gas, Coal, Nuclear etc still available.
But, in addition to having to dump excess power to other countries , there are still times when the wind stop, the sun is not out, and the thermals are not ready for a sudden peak….. THEN they have to import power from other countries !
Total mess !
00
Analysing the seasonal forecast the standout is above average temps in Tasmania, but the Red Team argue that BoM is out of touch with reality.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/monthly/0
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I just had a look at Jennifer Marohasy’s site for a prediction of Australian near term temperatures and could not see one.
I understand that the technique she and her husband use involves machine learning and is being compared with the BOM models.
Articles are springing up about self learning artificial intelligence all the time.
Of interest would also be a forecast of precipitation over the same time period BOM uses.
What I find most interesting in her results is the estimate of average surface global temperature rise
per doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.
She finds it to be .6C.
Since such a number is very South of alarming it is useful of the BOM to sort its instrument measurement problems
otherwise we may end up breaking our economy based on corrupt data and wishfull science.
51
Gets back to the ‘sensitivity’ issue, more of a lukewarmer position but its only natural.
http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/08/recent-warming-natural/
10
‘In our new paper in GeoResJ, we not only use the latest techniques in big data to show that there would very likely have been significant warming to at least 1980 in the absence of industrialisation, we also calculate an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of 0.6°C. This is the temperature increase expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. This is an order of magnitude less than estimates from General Circulation Models, but in accordance from values generated from experimental spectroscopic studies, and other approaches reported in the scientific literature [9,10,11,12,13,14].’
From your quoted article by JM.
She can’t be both a ‘lukewarmer’ and ‘an only natural’.
She is clearly simply following the data, as a good scientist should.
50
Do you believe CO2 causes warming in a convective atmosphere?
10
I am not able to answer that question.
I have to follow the data.
Following data sets me free from working from an a priori opinion.
However it is not the right question anyway.
The atmosphere is more than convective.
It is conductive, radiative and has heat mass that varies according to its local content.
There are too many belief narratives in climate science.
The goal posts keep changing.
Unless we, as the Australian society,follow the data to its end, we will not know the answer to the question,
what is the ECS? I trust Australian scientists over many others.
Since we are paying a lot of them and they are honourable, eventually they will give us useful raw data.
In the meanwhile, as a carbon poor country and a net carbon sink, we should return carbon to our soil, sent to us by the rest of the world for free.
https://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge219.html#dysonf
40
‘I trust Australian scientists over many others.’
I don’t share your confidence, they are up to their armpits.
Reading through the BoM entrails I can tell that global cooling has begun, yet they seem to be unaware of it.
Do you believe CO2 causes a little warming? If the answer is yes then you can join Judith Curry at the lukewarmers club.
40
My view of Australian BOM and CSIRO is the same as Mahatma Ghandi’s expectation of colonial rule..
He believed in the innate goodness of the British system of rights and expected it would eventually resolve his people’s grievances.
My own POV is that there is sufficient of this sense of fairness in our scientists to look at their work and refine it, particularly making our data clean, not noisy,free from unusual and malignant truncation while making it available to independent research.
The US has already mandated this.
We have a right to this information.
Otherwise our scientific elite just make us serfs, begging for scraps from the table.
One of Ghandi’s views was
Freedom is not worth having if it does not connote freedom to err.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/m/mahatmagan109922.html
I happen to think that the BOM has erred, but it can be ameliorated.
As for JC, she just follows the data.
As such, I am in good company.
When sensitivity to CO2 doubling can be calculated precisely by physical methods,experimental spectroscopy,
what would you do?
20
‘When sensitivity to CO2 doubling can be calculated precisely by physical methods, experimental spectroscopy, what would you do?’
Good question, the Red Team requests time out to consider their position on that.
————-
Scientists who have taken grant money to push the global warming meme, really need to convince the taxpayer why they should keep their jobs.
10
I concede that CO2 appears to cause warming in laboratory experiments and the models back those findings, its just unfortunate that it doesn’t translate into the atmosphere at large.
20
The Red Team believe the greenhouse effect is not established, the comments on this thread are worth reading.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/13/study-we-have-the-global-warming-physical-process-backwards/
10
el gordo November 14, 2017 at 8:03 am
I agree the comments are interesting. The paper from academics at MIT is but ‘yet another wild αssed guess (WAG)’. When will these Climate Clowns even try to do some science?
All the best!-will-
13
‘its just unfortunate that it doesn’t translate into the atmosphere at large’
Which is the whole point of measuring feed backs and their errors in measurement.
I know that the CO2 theory has problems, No tropical hot spot, hindcasted models falling over after ten years, GISS being a ‘Random Walk’.
However that does not mean CO2 increments do not have some effect on global climate.
Physically they should enhance feedback to maintain no effect on temperature.
Such feedback could be a shortened lapse rate and increased precipitation of both snow and rain and greening of the planet.
But none of this means that CO2 incrementally does not have an effect on the climate.
The question is , are the effects damaging or not, are they beneficial, even if small?
11
The paper was harshly critiqued and deservedly, and I’ll leave you with the words of Lao Tzu.
‘Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don’t resist them – that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.’
00
Hello Lewis, we should know the answer to that within a few years.
A quiet sun should produce more low cloud, throw in a couple of La Nina and it would normally take temps down off this high plateau, but if it bounces up again then I’ll concede that CO2 causes a little warming.
This surely is an act of divine providence at the end of the Holocene.
10
Lewis p Buckingham November 14, 2017 at 5:55 pm
What are ‘feed backs’?
Do you have some measurable and falsifiable conjecture on the physical effect of such atmospheric CO2 change between 200 and 4000ppmv? What may be your conjecture? How do you ‘measure’ to demonstrate causality rather than some nonsense ‘statistical correlation’ as currently done?
All the best!-will-
13
Id suggest a few people from the BOM are out of touch with a map of Tasmania el gordo, might explain the CAGW recursive fury!
61
How can anyone have any confidence in polling when this sort of thing happens?
On Friday night in the space of 10 minutes I cieved 3 calls from polling company, Reachtel, seeking responses to questions including voting intentions on the Queensland election.
These were automated calls one being to my mobile and the other two to my landline.
From the wording of the questions it was polling on behalf of the ALP.
There appears to be no quality control over their sampling techniques unless they ignore the responses if you don’t respond to their request at the end to contribute to their preferred charities.
100
Keep hanging up at the word POLL. Soon they will stop ringing you.
If that doesn’t work fast enough claim you will be voting for Bob Katter or One Nation. That will shut them up.
30
I actually don’t mind being polled. I recognise that polling when done properly can give you a reasonably accurate reflection of public sentiment at a particular point in time. Any statistician worth his salt will tell you that.
What concerns me that a so called reputable polling organisation would poll the same person 3 times on the same matter. They are being paid big money to perform this task and their methodology is clearly flawed or they are looking to provide a predetermined result. If they wanted a predetermined result why would they bother making phone calls?
10
A French company wants to build a wind farm on (potential) war graves, but don’t worry, it’s all about respect.
http://en.rfi.fr/france/20171110-paris-seeks-calm-australia-fears-over-wwi-battlefield-wind-farm
Why France is increasing wind power is totally beyond me, they have an almost “carbon free” electricity grid already
110
The rest of Green Europe is so dependent on French nuclear they could not keep the lights on without them.
101
You mean the french greens realised the lights wouldn’t go out with them?
10
James Murphy:
In SA it is called the Weatherdill response: “Damn the blackouts, full ahead”. Although I believe the Victorians call it the Dopey Dan response.
Holland, the recently booted President decided in typical green fashion that
Nuclear is bad,
windmills are good.
and decided to shut down at least a third of French nuclear plants and replace the generation with that from wind farms. It is not quite as lunatic as you would think as a number of nuclear plants are coming up to necessary expensive maintenance, but never the less if you have to install enough capacity (about 4 times) to replace those nuclear shutdowns, and on top of them pay for the absolutely necessary backup for when the wind doesn’t blow, it comes out to a huge sum. The incoming socialist President and team have not yet achieved dementia so the idea is “under re-consideration”.
20
Hollande was a disaster in mont ways, and Macron is exactly what one would expect of a former merchant banker turned politician, though there is this small sign of sense coming from a minister who, with a surname of Hulot, belongs in a Jacques Tati movie…
http://en.rfi.fr/france/20171108-french-environment-minsiter-nicolas-hulot-backtracks-nuclear-power
10
The really big news in Paris is related to the Lord Mayor shutting down the Christmas markets on the Champs Elysees (for not having enough genuine French people selling enough genuine French things), and considering the removal of the Ferris wheel near the Louvre. Both are big tourist attractions run by a handful of people making a fortune, especially from the wheel, which was essentially set up illegally, while still managing to have all power bills etc, paid for by the local government. It’s a “mafia”, or cartel-like operation, and the people involved are not known for their fair and honest dealings… the difference being that they are private citizens, compared to being politicians, I guess.
In response to this, there will probably be road blocks set up everywhere, causing traffic chaos for a few hundred kilometres. Good thing I don’t drive in Paris…
30
lol.
11 Nov: ClimateChangeNews: Bloomberg demands seat at UN climate negotiating table for cities and states
UN special envoy says non-state actors can deliver US carbon-cutting pledge despite president Donald Trump’s hostility to climate action
By Arthur Neslen in Bonn
Addressing a packed-to-overflowing pavilion, Bloomberg launched “America’s Pledge”, a process to quantify efforts to tackle climate change by non-state actors.
“This coalition represents more than half of the US economy,” he said. “If this group were a country, we would have the world’s third largest economy. In other words, a group of citizens, states and businesses who remain committed to the Paris agreement represent a bigger economy than any country in the world, outside the US and China.
“We should have a seat at the table and the ability to work with our peers in other nations. That is the aim of our pavilion.”…
Following Bloomberg’s speech, Patricia Espinosa, the UN Climate Change executive secretary, welcomed the coalition launch as a “special moment”, and said she would take it into the formal negotiations.
“While this remains a country-driven process, we do require the participation of all people to meet our climate challenge,” she said. “The climate change agenda and our sustainable development goals agenda cannot be delivered by governments alone.”…
California governor Jerry Brown also threw his weight behind the initiative. His speech was repeatedly interrupted by clumps of demonstrators.
The protest was called over Californian heavy crude oil production, methane leaks at Aliso County and the state’s cap and trade system.
Over chants of “Still in for what?” and “No sacrifice zones”, Brown attempted to talk to protestors in a near-pastiche of the Dead Kennedys song ‘California Uber Alles’. “I am Governor Jerry Brown,” he shouted. “What’s your name?”
As a large section of the audience started counter-chants of “We want Brown!”, the Californian governor argued that oil and gas presented an “existential threat” but that shutting down their production would disrupt transportation and destroy jobs.
“Unfortunately in politics, we don’t have a magic wand,” he implored. “I can’t say ‘Stop, there’s no more coal, no more oil’. Otherwise all you will get is noise – and this is good noise! But it doesn’t get the job done.”
On grassy parkland behind a conference centre fence, Californian protestors said that they were angered by five refineries that were being allowed to expand under Brown’s cap and trade scheme.
One Brazilian indigenous leader, Chief Ninawa, who represents 13,000 people in Acre, claimed that California’s carbon market was giving credence to companies that were harming his community’s traditional forest use, and dividing indigenous leaders, with payoffs…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/11/11/bloomberg-demands-seat-un-climate-negotiating-table-cities-states/
20
It would be interesting to follow the money in all of this. Who pays for this extravagance; not the whole show but the separate representation from the USA.
Bloomberg seems particularly vocal on supporting intermittents. Some of the data they provide is so far from reality that it would require large doses of pixie dust to come close to reality. They must have financial incentives to push the agenda so fervently.
10
pat:
I have long since given up Bloomberg as anything other than self-delusional. Unfortunately they are followed by many in the finance sector, but even there a certain amount of sc*pt*sm is creeping in.
2 years of Global Cooling and their whole business model will collapse.
20
10 Nov: ClimateChangeNews: Climate insurance website to be launched at Bonn talks
By Abu Siddique and Megan Darby in Bonn
Known as the “clearing house for risk transfer”, it aims to help developing countries bounce back faster from drought, flooding and cyclones.
Fiji, which is presiding over the two-week meeting, is promoting insurance as a way to address loss and damage caused by climate change…
Two developing country negotiators expressed scepticism about the initiative, however, speaking to Climate Home News on condition of anonymity.
“It pushes the poor people of the poor countries to pay the insurance premiums from their limited resources,” said an African diplomat.
“The insurance mechanism will not work in developing countries like Bangladesh,” said a Bangladeshi official…
Campaigners said that while insurance may help in some instances, rich countries need to stump up “new and additional” finance to address the damage wreaked by global warming on the world’s poor.
Julie-Anne Richards of the Climate Justice Program dismissed the clearing house website as a “chatroom”. She added: “The insurance mechanism is a clever initiative of developed countries to pushing the developing countries to pay for climate risk for which they are not responsible.”…
Since 2013, there has been a strand of talks dedicated to loss and damage – the Warsaw International Mechanism (Wim) – but it has minimal resources behind it.
Alongside the website launch, negotiators are due to agree on a Wim work plan for the next few years.
“We have to say that the plan is missing the major portion, which is money,” said Harjeet Singh of Action Aid. “Rather, the Wim continues to focus on meetings, reports, submissions, and surveys – anything other than a concrete plan to provide financial support to the world’s most vulnerable.”
Developed countries, which are already committed under the Paris climate agreement to supply funds for low carbon development and adaptation to the impacts of climate change, are reluctant to open up a new front for donations. That has left proponents of the loss and damage agenda looking around for innovative sources of finance.
Ingrid-Gabriela Hoven, a top official in Germany’s economic cooperation and development ministry, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation insurance was able to get money moving fast.
“Insurance doesn’t cover all the damage made, but it gives the country a cushion until the whole reconstruction effort can start,” she said. “The payout is relatively quick, and not dependent on donors.”
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/11/10/climate-insurance-website-launched-bonn-talks/
20
Sounds like a protection racket….
30
a bit more detail on a matter raised in comments on a previous thread:
9 Nov: Scroll.in: Bonn talks: US and EU oppose assessments of their current climate change commitments
Developed countries do not want to discuss whether they are on track to fulfil their promises to cut emissions and provide funds to developing nations by 2020.
by Nitin Sethi & Kumar Sambhav Shrivastava
The US, European Union and other developed countries closed ranks at the Bonn climate summit on Wednesday, opposing formal scrutiny of how they have performed so far against their commitments to combat climate change by 2020…
The position of the developed countries ensured that a consensus could not be reached on an issue that has roiled the Bonn negotiations from the first day of the conference on Monday, when developing countries found that the issue had been dropped from negotiations at the highest forum at the summit, called the Conference of Parties…
On Wednesday, when the informal consultations were held, the US shot down the idea of bringing the pre-2020 agenda back to the table. “We don’t see the need for this item,” it said. “We already have a very important and busy schedule. Everyone in the negotiations rooms complains about lack of time. There has to be a point where we have to stop adding agenda items. We do not see consensus here, simply because it is being taken up and has been taken up for quite some time.”
The European Union initially said it could prove that it had achieved its pre-2020 obligations. But then it added that discussing this under the formal negotiations at the highest level was not acceptable. Canada, Japan, and Norway also opposed the reintroduction of the pre-2020 agenda. Australia, speaking on behalf of the Umbrella group, which also includes US, Japan and Canada, reiterated this.
These blocks said that various elements of their pre-2020 commitments were being discussed at lower and disaggregated levels in the negotiations and that would suffice…
India listed out a series of promises on emission reduction and provision of finance by developed countries that they had failed to live up to. It noted that even the second phase of Kyoto Protocol (which requires developed countries to reduce emissions against fixed targets by 2020) had not even been ratified by enough rich countries to come into force before the due date…ETC
https://scroll.in/article/857209/bonn-talks-us-and-eu-oppose-assessments-of-their-current-climate-change-commitments
30
pat:
“India listed out a series of promises on emission reduction and provision of finance by developed countries that they had failed to live up to. It noted that even the second phase of Kyoto Protocol …”
And just who of those developed countries has reduced emissions the most? Surely not the USA which wouldn’t sign up in the first place?
20
Graeme No.3 –
isn’t it ironic…
20
Or proof that those who signed up didn’t or couldn’t think through the problems it would cause. A case of Shilby Right much as our politicians are exhibiting in another matter.
10
http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/11/10/cheers-skeptics-toast-u-s-exit-from-paris-pact-at-un-climate-summit-in-germany/
10
yesterday ABC first told some truths:
11 Nov: ABC: ‘Screwed’ by Justin Trudeau, leaders fume over scuppered Trans-Pacific Partnership deal
By national affairs correspondent Greg Jennett in Da Nang, Vietnam
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has infuriated leaders of 10 other Asia-Pacific countries by pulling a sudden “no show” for the signing of a lucrative trade deal.
Mr Trudeau becomes the second leader, behind Donald Trump, to desert the Trans-Pacific Partnership — but unlike the United States President his motives and future intentions have not been publicly explained.
The 45-year-old Canadian had been due to enter a meeting in Da Nang, Vietnam, where fellow leaders had waited patiently on him to seal the “TPP-11” trade pact — a deal involving Australia, Chile, New Zealand, Brunei Darussalam, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru and Vietnam.
But after a lengthy delay, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe entered the room to announce the signing was off because Mr Trudeau would not attend.
An official familiar with the process summarised the frustration of all leaders in the room, who represent economies with a combined $12 trillion in GDP.
“The Canadians screwed everybody,” he said…
After the “no show”, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had what has been described as a “frank conversation between friends”, expressing Australia’s disappointment about the boycott of the signing ceremony…
http://www.abc.net:.au/news/2017-11-10/tpp-talks-stall-after-justin-trudeau-canada-fails-to-show-up/9140250
then ABC opted for a mish mash of FakeNewsMSM spin, which soon descended into 9 paras of anti-Trump rubbish under a sub-heading “Trump and Putin meet as Russia investigation looms”:
11 Nov: ABC: Wires: Trans-Pacific Partnership rebadged as ‘fundamental agreement’ reached on new deal
Trade ministers from 11 Pacific Rim countries have announced an agreement to push ahead with a free-trade deal whose destiny was uncertain after US President Donald Trump dropped it…
(from a comment by OzBushranger below the article: I am disappointed that this matter has not been covered by the ABC. We would never have known about it unless Trudeau had not made news headlines by not turning up…
The TPP has attracted a great deal of angst — particularly with Andrew Robb letting the Dispute Resolution Clause get past him — so I can’t understand why this attempt at resurrection was ignored by the news media…)
ABC should have stuck with the first version, it would seem:
11 Nov: CBC: How Canada turned to Mexico to fend off TPP pressure from Japan, Australia
Ottawa had been anticipating pressure from TPP partners Japan and Australia
By Andy Blatchford, The Canadian Press
It was the Canadian leader’s first bilateral meeting on the margins of this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit at a palm-lined, seaside resort in Vietnam. The Canadian team had planned it that way.
A key topic of discussion, as they sank into the yellow cushions on their chairs, focused on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks.
Heading into APEC, a senior Canadian government official said Ottawa had been anticipating pressure from TPP partners Japan and Australia, two countries that wanted to move forward quickly with sealing the 11-country deal…
The Trudeau government, on the other hand, wanted to throw some sand in the gears. Ottawa had been pushing the other parties to make changes to how the treaty would affect areas like culture, intellectual property and the auto sector.
“We were not going to be rushed into a deal,” Trudeau told reporters at his closing APEC news conference on Saturday, echoing warnings he had issued repeatedly over the course of the week.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, provided a peek behind the scenes of what followed during the TPP talks in Danang.
The Canadian team had no plans to agree to the deal at Friday’s TPP leaders’ meeting unless the modifications were made. And they knew they had some allies. They had also been informed about unease about the deal among a few of the other countries.
Indeed, the official said Japan and Australia tried to railroad Canada into committing to an agreement in principle Friday by arguing the other TPP members would be disappointed if they didn’t deliver, the official said.
That’s where Mexico fit in.
Trudeau explained his situation to Pena Nieto, who reassured him that if Canada didn’t sign on to the TPP, Mexico wouldn’t either, the official said.
Mexico had been sending similar signals of restraint about signing on to a new TPP…
Shortly after Pena Nieto left, Trudeau held his next bilateral of the day in the very same room — this time with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe…
Abe came to APEC looking for a win — an announcement from Pacific Rim leaders that their huge trade deal would move forward just months after it had been left for dead following Trump’s withdrawal earlier in the year.
After the meeting, Trudeau and Abe were supposed to walk a short distance to a scheduled TPP leaders’ meeting. Some of the TPP players, including Japan and Australia, had expected the meeting to be a signing ceremony for an agreement in principle, the official said.
But the signing never happened, much to the chagrin of many an Asian country…
Late Friday, TPP trade ministers agreed to changes and new ways forward in areas Canada has been pressing for, like autos, cultural industries and the suspension of IP provisions from the original TPP. The official said the changes didn’t come until after Canada informed the group it wasn’t going to agree to the deal without them.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-mexico-tpp-1.4399224
funny how political discourse in Australia never covers important issues such as signing on to this deal.
40
For reasons of stupidity Trudeau has achieved stagnacy. And by the next round he will be left out of any agreement, esp. as rational politicians (and representatives from Aust. & NZ) will see that the whole AGW thing is a farce.
20
If any of the 12 countries had any sense they wouldn’t sign it at all , I’m just wondering if any of them have read the whole agreement and understand it ? I’m thinking no .
30
with regards to Canada, I read somewhere (maybe even here?) that the timber industry in Canada was going to be, or has been dealt a severe blow by the US. Maybe somewhere in the deep dark recesses of the Canadian government or public service, there is someone who has decided that a “Canada first” approach is not a bad idea…
More likely, Trudeau didn’t show up because he had to see his hairdresser, or makeup artist, or maybe he didn’t know that Vietnam was a country, and thought the invitation was an elaborate prank.
30
read all for the smears…
12 Nov: SMH: Peter Hannam: Researchers under scrutiny after noise experiment prompts ‘violent’ reaction
A New Zealand university is investigating the conduct of researchers who let the subject of a “noise sensitisation” experiment drive a vehicle despite experiencing a “severe” response after visiting a wind farm in NSW.
Massey University said it had already undertaken an “educative review” with two researchers – among the four in total – who teach at the institution.
“Retraction of the research is an option open to the university,” Giselle Byrnes, an assistant vice-chancellor at Massey, said in a letter responding to a complaint about the study.
One issue is the lack of an ethics review of the study before it was conducted, a standard requirement for experiments involving humans.
Scientist have also raised concern about the standard of the non peer-reviewed paper – Cross-sensitisation to infrasound and low frequency noise (ILFN) – presented in June in Zurich, Switzerland, to the triennial gathering of the International Commission on Biological Effects of Noise.
Partly funded by the Waubra Foundation, an Australian anti-wind farm lobby, the work’s presentation at a global accoustics gathering has given it a sheen of credibility. Copies are understood to have begun circulating to residents near a proposed wind farm in Victoria, one government scientist said…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/researchers-under-scrutiny-after-noise-experiment-prompts-violent-reaction-20171109-gzihnl.html
40
Ahh Zurich… the first place I think of when I think about research into the biological effects of noise…
At least oil & gas industry conferences tend to happen in places where there is an oil & gas industry, though admittedly, I have not seen any big events organised for Iraq, or the Congo recently…
20
11 Nov: BBC: Burntisland Fabricators ‘set to call in administrators’
A leading engineering company in Scotland’s energy industry is understood to be on the verge of calling in administrators.
BiFab, or Burntisland Fabricators, has two yards in Fife and one at Arnish on the Isle of Lewis.
The firm builds large-scale equipment for the offshore oil and gas industry, as well as platforms for offshore wind turbines and tidal generators.
There are currently more than 600 people working at the yards.
The BBC understands BiFab has had cash flow problems linked to a contract for the Beatrice offshore wind farm in the Moray Firth, and has filed court papers with an intention to go into administration…
Analysis by Douglas Fraser, BBC Scotland Business and Economy Editor…READ ON
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-41953779
10
At the local supermarket before when the power went out for a few minutes, their backup generator tried to kick in a couple of times but cut out after a few seconds so total dark, no refrigeration, no electronic payments and no customers, yep people just left their groceries and walked out (but I had alcohol and priorities) when power came back on a bloke in line asked what would cause this to which I replied “this is what happens when you shut down coal fired power plants” people nodded in agreement except a young couple that stated “we have to close them to save the planet”
Well the young ones got a decent lecture on the folly of attempting to change the weather with asshat technology while countering their interjections with well learnt facts (Novarian) that left them confused, eventually I won when they resorted to the old “denier” ad hominem and storming out huffily with indignation, I love the smell of faux pas in the morning…it smells like..victory.
161
When ‘load-shedding’ takes place, does it differentiate between areas that have hospitals and other essential services or is it a random selection? I can’t imagine that it is the latter.
My query is purely out of self-interest. I live within a four-block radius encompassing the Geelong Hospital and the Geelong Ambulance Station.
30
GD:
There will be a list of suburbs to be blacked out next. The suburbs may be changed after they’ve been blacked out. All you have to do is find the list, as for some reason it isn’t publicised.
As for hospitals they have emergency diesel generators, sometimes on autostart, so they won’t be blacked out. So carry a torch and in the event of a blackout make your way to the hospital foyer.
40
If you have a Smart Meter, compulsory in Victoria, the electrical distributors have the ability to switch individual households off and on through the wireless links used in the Smart Meter technology.
I don’t know if they are using that particular bit of Smart Meter technology as yet but they can and do collect your useage of power direct from your meter through the wireless links without ever physically going near your meter.
And they can switch off your residence if you haven’t paid your bill or have moved house and then can switch it on again when everything is sorted.
Nor do I know if the Australian Smart Meter Technology has been really put through the hoops of thorough testing under actual real life usage to check if the power use they are supposedly recording is actually accurate.
The UK has gone to Smart Meter technology and are finding first, it is taking a lot of convincing of the users to get them to install those meters and that a lot of those 1st generation Smart Meters are going a bit berserk and running up huge bills for power that can be easily proven as never having been used which is why I have got quite suspicious about our own Smart Meter technology and the useage of power it racks up. `
60
Here’s the link to this week’s data and analysis on the Base Load, and I also have a go at making the case for a new coal fired power plant in the North of Queensland.
I was curious about the number of large cities in Oz, considering the power consumption of large cities, and I just did the information for 25 of the largest by population with a population of 70,000 plus, and of those 25 largest cities, 9 of them are here in Queensland, more than double that of NSW and Victoria. The vast area and decentralisation of Queensland comes into play here, and while Queensland already has (seemingly) ample supplies of coal fired power, most of that services the South East corner, where only four of those large cities are, with a good percentage of that also being supplied into NSW.
What is interesting is that Stanwell is the furthest North coal fired plant and three of those large cities are North of here, well North really. Rockhampton is 620Km from Brisbane and from Rocky to the Cape is 2000Km, with Cairns 1050Km from Rockhampton. I might suggest that what’s left of Stanwell’s power after Rocky and surrounds might stretch perhaps to Mackay, but with all that population to the North, and with a hoped expansion of tourism, then perhaps a new coal fired plant would be a good idea.
It was an interesting exercise really.
Australian Base Load Electrical Power – Week Ending 11th November 2017
Tony.
90
Appreciate your analysis Tony. I am puzzled about AEMO’s forecasts of reserve shortfalls for SA and Vic Nov 21-23.
For SA, generation 2203, demand 2742, reserve shortfall 290 MW. Yet by Dec 8 they show generation 2357 MW. And seems to be higher demand than normal forecast for Nov 21-23.
For Vic, generation 7830, demand 9353, shortfall 793 MW. Yet by Dec 8 generation rises to 8824 MW. Seems to be higher than normal demand forecast for Nov 21-23.
Does that suggest there are units forecast to be offline during that period? I can’t find any explanation on the AEMO website of their forecasts, yet this would seem to be critical to understanding these reserve shortfalls.
30
I’m willing to bet that there won’t be any blackouts or even rationing for that fact in Australia this Summer.
The AEMO, as maligned as they are from any level of Government, Federal or State, have a really good handle on the situation. The way that the power sharing between States goes, I’m confident that they can handle anything other than a catastrophe. I’ve been watching it now for six Months and they’re in front of the game.
South Australia was that catastrophe that happened in under a few seconds, and there’s no way anyone can handle something like that.
They were lucky it didn’t snowball any worse than South Australia itself, but it was a little easier with SouthAus only making up so little of the Australian total, barely 6%, so it could be contained locally in that State.
The AEMO is what is actually making politicians look less like the fools they really are when it comes to power generation, something politicians are utterly clueless about.
Tony.
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You may wonder how I can be confident that there will not be much in the way of either blackouts or even much in the way of load shedding.
Having now closely watched the way power is being generated and delivered for almost six Months, you get an idea of what is actually happening, and for years now, I have been mentioning how the grid controllers (in this case here in Australia, the AEMO) watch that Demand like hawks, and stay ahead of the game, if it can be referred to in that way.
As an example, go to the data dashboard (at this site) right now, at close to 11AM, (when I began this Comment) and look at the power sharing arrangements here.
Queensland is supplying all its own needs and also is delivering between 1100 and 1200MW into Northern NSW.
NSW is delivering 440MW into Victoria.
SouthAus is delivering around 90MW into Victoria.
Victoria is delivering 160MW into Tasmania.
All those figures change ….. all the time.
In Queensland, it is virtually all coal fired power, excepting in the North of the State, anywhere north of Mackay.
Currently, Australia wide, there are 7 of the coal fired Units off line out of 49 of them, amounting to 3100MW. Even so, the remaining coal fired Units are still delivering around 17000MW.
At the same time, gas fired power is supplying around 3400MW of power, Australia wide, and a large proportion of that is in SouthAus where almost 87% of their actual consumption is being provided from gas fired power, fossil fuel.
As the Summer profile for power consumption approaches, and that is already happening in three States now, more power will be required. Coal fired power will ramp up, and those extra Units (well all except those 2 at AGL’s Liddell plant anyway, still off line after 22 weeks now) will come back on line, and there is more capacity available from gas fired sources.
Even if (well, when really) wind power drops off, they can still have power being delivered.
All this does is make the ‘masses’ believe that there really is not all that much of a problem.
There will only be a problem in the event of a major breakdown like what happened in SouthAus, but be aware that in SouthAus, that problem only showed up because they have such a small (by percentage) total power consumption, barely 5.5 to 6% of Australia’s total, so in a small total, any problem ‘seems’ like a big one.
In the three big States, a problem of that nature ‘could’ realistically be covered, again making it seem like there is no real problem.
The structure of supplying power to the grid ….. by the AEMO, is something that IS being done quite effectively.
The real problem lies with Victoria, and to a ‘slightly’ lesser degree with NSW because large scale coal fired plants have just closed down, and gone unreplaced.
As long as power just comes out of that proverbial hole in the wall, those same masses will believe that we actually can just close down those coal fired power plants, and THAT is where the problem lies.
They could ….. probably close down Liddell, and still get by, just, but Bayswater, Eraring, Mt. Piper, and Vales Point are all much larger, and even one of them closing down will stress the grid something chronic.
In Victoria, they have Loy Yang A and B and Yallourn W, and now, they are either off line for maintenance, or generating at their maximum all the time they are running, so Victoria has reached (or is even beyond) the stage where they cannot afford even one or two Units to be off line for any extended period of time.
When you have a situation where coal fired power CONSISTENTLY delivers between 74 and 83% of all the power being consumed, then you cannot afford to close any more of them.
Tony.
50
Possibly an item for Jo to pick up on;
Roger Andrews, the other half I gather of Euan Mearns very good “Energy Matters” blog has done an analysis on the claims that surround Prof. Andrew Blakers’ study “100% renewable electricity in Australia.
Blakers made a couple of assumtptions that anybody who has ever even casually watched the pressure charts for Australia will know are completely false.
He, like the european modellers and claimants that 100% reneawable energy can power Europe or Australia and etc have claimed that the wind is always blowing somewhere.
So a 4000 km HVDC transmission line would need to be built from FNQ right down to the SE states and across into SA to harness this so called wind will always be blowing somewhere.
As the watchers of the charts and the wind energy output well know, when a slow moving High gets established over eastern and SE Australia there is not much wind blowing anywhere sometimes for a number of days at a time.
Energy storage is the Achillies Heel that Blaker and his study really fall down on
.
A couple of quotes and considering this has been discussed here on Jo’s blog not long ago I think [ I was otherwise occupied at the time ] it is well worth reading this article as a complementary piece to what Tony has been telling us at length for some time now.
.
Australia, energy storage and the Blakers study
.
10
Tony:
Whatever your views, and mine, of Pauline Hansen she seems to be the only leading politician in Qld. (and maybe elsewhere) with a grasp on reality.
https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/one-nation-reveals-15b-plan-for-nq-coal-power-stat/
“By building a power station, it will secure electricity for Queensland,” she said.
“It makes sense to put it out there, near where coal is so you don’t have transport cost on top of it and it would be an area we would be looking at.
“Solar and wind power cannot produce the baseload power we need and that is evident with what has happened in South Australia.”
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According to Queensland labor there is $20bn in the investment pipeline for intermittent generation in the State. That should be enough to lower the leakage of the LGC cash from the state.
Read it all here:
https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20293/alpq-powering-queenslands-future-policy-document-final.pdf
A spend of $20bn will need to be supported by something like $2bn. It would require a big reduction in coal consumption and no offsetting gas take up to cover that level of investment. By my rough calculation the annual fuel bill for coal into Queensland power stations would be $4bn at current spot market prices, which is well above what the power stations pay.
In my opinion the $20bn spend on intermittents will not displace anything like 50% of the coal – maybe 10%. Guess what that means! Yep, power prices in Queensland are about to start to head for the stratosphere.
On the other hand One Nation may end up with the balance of power and maintain sanity with power generation:
https://shop.onenation.com.au/blogs/labor-ldp-plan-to-burn-cane-growers/alp-and-lnp-can-cut-power-prices-immediately-by-adpoting-one-nation-s-policy-on-energy-company-dividends
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How is Malcolm Roberts’ ( Former Federal Senator and One Nation candidate) campaign going in Ipswich?
20
Rick Will mentions this:
There is no way at all that Queensland will cut back on its reliance on coal fired power. It has the youngest ‘fleet’ of coal fired power in Australia. The State itself, via its two Government owned corporations, Stanwell, and CS Energy, either own outright, or have access to (25% of Gladstone) 75% of the State’s coal fired power. The only plant they do not own is the one at Millmerran. They sell 12 to 20% of that coal fired power into NSW. Just from the sale of electricity, they make an absolute Motza, so they will not be cutting their throat to lose all that money.
THAT is why they will never make 50% renewables by any year, let alone 2030.
Tony
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QUEENSLAND. STATE OF ELECTRICITY!
40
a spicy “renewables” tale…tho not too spicy:
11 Nov: HindustanTimes: Solar scam probe panel report is a pulp literature, says former Kerala CM Oommen Chandy
In an interview with the Hindustan Times Chandy spoke about the scam and his take on the findings of the commission.
by Ramesh Babu
Former Kerala chief minister and veteran Congress leader Oommen Chandy is facing the biggest challenge of his five-decade-long political carrier. He was recently indicted by a judicial commission appointed by him to probe a multi-crore solar panel scam surfaced when he was heading a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) government in the state. Apart from graft, he’s also facing sexual gratification charges…
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/solar-scam-probe-panel-report-is-a-pulp-literature-says-former-kerala-cm-oommen-chandy/story-Ap1oflmwVJ8W1FLqTLjB1H.html
11 Nov: OutlookIndia: Kerala: Solar Scam Reveals Decadent Polity And Society
Saritha’s life illustrates the perils to which a woman is exposed in Kerala’s public space.
by B.R.P. Bhaskar
The solar scandal broke in 2013 when a young woman, Saritha S. Nair, director of a company called Team Solar Renewal Energy Solutions Private Limited, was arrested on a charge of cheating several persons by promising to make them business partners or install solar plants in their premises. Her husband and the company’s managing director, Biju Radhakrishnan, was also arrested. He is now serving a jail term on a charge of murdering his first wife to marry Saritha…
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/kerala-solar-scam-reveals-decadent-polity-and-society/304193
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Like most of on here we have a very strong interest in weather and climate. We all visit various blogs, and regularly visit the BOM. I’m always following my local town’s weather and our temperatures because I want to know how we are doing, above average, below or average temps. I love the weather and its variety. Anyway I’m curious as to how the BOM records and reports the daily temperatures. As I’m sure a lot of us are, I’m constantly looking at the highs reported for the day and then check those with what is actually published in the BOM data for our town.
Two weeks ago we had a particularly cold day here (30/10/2107) and it was pretty cold across the state. So being curious to know what the max was for the day I looked at the daily temperature recordings – the 30 min AWS data. For that day the maximum reported by our AWS was 14.9C. Weatherzone later reported a top of 16 for the day. So I went back to the hourly data and couldn’t see anywhere a 16 reported.
I had once asked how does the AWS data get recorded and reported and I was advised that if there is a temperature high outside the 30 min reporting cycle then that gets posted on the AWS data. So say it’s 14 at 3pm and 14.5 at 3.30pm there is a high of say 15.3 at 2.47pm, the AWS reports the spike of 15.3 at 2.47 on the BOM AWS data.
The following day Weatherzone reported the high for that day as being 16.4. So I went back to the official BOM data and the daily summary and that also reported 16.4. So I went back to the half hour temp data recorded and reported on the BOM data and I still couldn’t find that 16.4. So where did that high temperature come from? I have captured all the data in Excel if anyone wants to see it. So just where did that 16.4 come from? It’s not on the AWS half hour data so I’d like to understand where that figure comes from and why it’s not recorded/reported on the half hour AWS data?
Then on Monday 6/11 The BOM recorded a maximum of 22.5 for that day. Again, I’ve gone back to the AWS data and the highest temperature I can find recorded between 9am 6th to 9am 7th was 20.9. Am I not reading the data right or am I missing something here? Again data is available.
50
For starters name your town, then the analysts can get to work.
40
fair comment and sorry for forgetting – Kyabram 2620
20
Not that we need further proof of MSM bias towards Trump but I’ve just seen reports that he called Kim Jong short and fat , a couple of minutes later I get the news story that he was responding to a tweet from Kim that called the Don an old man .
So the Don tweets why would he insult me by calling me old , I’ve never called him short and fat !
So the presstiutes straightaway say ahh you called him short and fat .
30
Good point. Trust the press to imply offence on behalf of Kim Jong Il, the man who has threatened the US people with extinction. Clearly the US press and Kim Jong Il have a common enemy. The American people.
60
you won’t want to listen to this 50-plus minutes. ABC’s Paul Barclary eary on talks of the two great challenges of our time – CLIMATE CHANGE AND EQUALITY. guests talk of Buddhist economics, blissfully unaware of events in Sri Lanka and Myanmar in recent times. dreams of utopia with a universal basic income:
9 Nov: ABC Big Ideas: A new economics?
Climate change. Inequality and poverty. Wasteful consumerism. Robots replacing workers. These are a few of the things, leading more people to question conventional notions of growth-fuelled, free market, capitalism. So, what would a sustainable, and “human-centred”, economy look like? Is changing the system even possible, or is it in the realm of utopian? Paul Barclay speaks to a panel of writers.
Recorded at the Brisbane Writers Festival 10 September 2017.
Guests:
Rutger Bregman – Dutch historian; author of Utopia for Realists
Tim Dunlop – writer; academic; author of Why The Future is Workless
Clair Brown – Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley; author of Buddhist Economics
PIC: Placard: Mother Earth First: G20 protesters are among those critical of free market, growth based, economics
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/a-new-economics/9123074
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btw just two days before, it was the same BIG IDEA!
7 Nov: ABC Big Ideas: Legacy of the Russian Revolution
The Russian Revolution is one of the determined attempts ever to build a better and more equal world. Extreme inequality was what fuelled that revolution. Analysing the reasons for its failures is important if we are to face the same question today, a century later. Once again, issues of inequality loom large. Big Ideas looks at the Russian Revolution – in the context of thousands of years of human history.
The Legacy of the Russian Revolution – Annual lecture of the Independent Scholars Association of Australia. 12 October 2017.
Guest: Dr David Christian – Director of the Big History Institute and Distinguished Professor in History, Macquarie University
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/legacy-of-the-russian-revolution/9071788
Independent Scholars Association of Australia: REVOLUTION, ACTIVISM AND SOCIAL CHANGE 12
-13 October, 2017 Fourth Floor Conference Room National Library of Australia Canberra including ISAA Annual Lecture 5.30 pm, Thursday 12 October 2017 delivered by Dr David Christian – The Legacy of the Russian Revolution
https://www.isaa.org.au/file_download/113/Latest+Conference+Program.pdf
20
should have added Dr David Christian on ABC’s Big Ideas brought up climate change and a guaranteed universal basic income, and suggested millennials would be interested in working less, etc. it’s a recurring theme/meme these days:
6 Nov: ABC: 100 years after the Russian Revolution, what do millennials see in socialism?
RN By Rosanna Ryan and Alex McClintock
Yet this year Jeremy Corbyn — a self-described modern socialist — led UK Labour to a near victory in the country’s general election on a platform of free university tuition and nationalising the railways, with the largest swing to the party since 1945.
And in the US, Bernie Sanders — a 76-year-old Brooklyn-born socialist who honeymooned in the Soviet Union — offered Hillary Clinton an unexpectedly tough challenge in the Democratic presidential primary…
The mass strikes by textile workers and metalworkers in early 20th century St Petersburg might bear little relation to the industrial relations landscape of Australia in 2017, but for Ms Robertson, that means the solutions offered by young socialists have to be different as well.
She points to ideas like a universal basic income, in which everyone is paid a living wage by the government regardless of their work situation; a jobs guarantee, in which everyone is guaranteed work; and reduced work hours, as possible policy proposals…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-06/100-years-after-the-russian-revolution-is-socialism-millenials/9121290
Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian studies at Princeton University and New York University, who is married to Katrina vanden Heuvel, editor of the progressive magazine The Nation, told John Batchelor on his podcast a while back that Russia Today was more for Bernie Sanders than Trump (I posted an audio some months back where he said this).
it is true and anyone who pretends RT was for Trump is either lying or never watch/watched the channel.
nonetheless, I still enjoy some RT programs.
today, however, they had a repeat of this absurd pro-communist documentary, written and directed by Vitaly Buzuev who, according to his bio on RT, once worked for BBC World Service (no surprise that):
5 Nov: Youtube: 27mins26secs: RussiaToday: Revolution: 100 years young. Lenin’s socialist vision in capitalist world
In October of 1917, the Bolsheviks, led by Vladimir Lenin, seized power in Russia. To many socialist believers, the revolution represented the possibility of a turning point, of a rupture in the whole history of humanity since governments were created. Yet, their dreams of building a more equitable society were short lived and a recipe for universal happiness remains elusive. Capitalism now prevails everywhere in trade, propaganda, and mass media. Meanwhile, terrible inequality is still rampant around the globe and most people on Earth still live in horrific conditions.
In light of these apparent failures, was the Great October Revolution really as earth-shaking as it appeared to be 100 years ago? To find out, we spoke to people who still view Russia’s 1917 Revolution as a significant global event. They include unrepentant Leninists from vastly different backgrounds and parts of the world, from a French philosopher and a Swedish entrepreneur, to a Turkish dance student and a Chilean artist. Despite the setbacks, the spirit of revolution still burns in their hearts and thoughts, and Lenin’s socialist vision illuminates their hopes for the future.
Nowadays, you constantly hear that the revolution and communism were horrible, monstrous crimes. It would seem the case is closed and the West has now entered an epoch of political slumber. But the participants in this film point out that much of today’s youth have come to view Lenin, the October Revolution, and the Red Banner in an increasingly positive light. Given the current state of the world, it is only a matter of time before revolutionary spirit awakes once more, they say.
While it is doubtful that any future revolution will match the scale of Lenin’s, one participant thinks “a new way will be found and it won’t be a repetition but something new,” adding “I only know that if it happens, in whatever way, society will abruptly and suddenly change, but we know nothing of how it will happen.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4zWGCp01nk
I somehow doubt Putin would approve of the above! no need to watch it.
the following one was also an article, by AFP’s Maggy Donaldson, who has written for The Atlantic, Harpers, Aljazeera, Public Radio International, etc:
10 Nov: VIDEO: 2mins19secs: AFP: Once taboo, socialism finds comrades among US millennials
Since the Cold War, socialism in America has been scorned. But a slow shift in attitudes and Donald Trump’s election, means the movement has gained significant traction which members hope will help it secure a place in the political sphere.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/once-taboo-socialism-finds-comrades-among-us-millennials/vi-BBEPMG8
couldn’t get more blatant really.
20
I had to think about this one a bit. See, there is this weird dichotomy in the acceptance of socialist/communist ideology by the liberal side of the US and the absolute disgust they spew in the media about how this socialist ideology put Trump in the POTUS seat. I mean, if the ideology is what is so great, why be angry about who it helped to elect?
Some of these articles make no sense to me in that light. If all these USAns are shifting TO socialism because of Trump, why aren’t they also stating, insisting! that there is no way their happy socialist buddies across the world would have helped to elect Trump? Or if the think Putin and his Russian buddies DID help elect the man, why are they hating on him? He’s one of theirs, then, yes?
How many layers of onion need to be peeled back before even a scant ounce of sense can be made?
00
I remain confident that I and all the rest of the US “Well regulated Militia”; under the second Amendment; can handle all the ‘scum’! The US military need only prevent ‘unlawful disturbance’ at the local Beer Pretzel Concession which they also operate for profit! 🙂
00
My boss called me into the office on Friday and asked me where I see myself in three years , I said I didn’t know because I don’t have 20-20 vision !
110
.
The Poles definition of State Socialism;
We pretend to work;
They pretend to pay us.
50
That was in Socialist Times. I think they might have changed since then.
50
A science article on http://www.news.com.au talks about a patch of 400AD water in the deep Pacific. The story is in the last two lines.
“The UNSW researchers hope their work will help other scientists understand the capacity of the oceans to absorb heat trapped by rising greenhouse gases.”
This is simple inversion. Does no scientist consider that steadily rising CO2 may be a result of rising water temperature? Not only is this obvious and everyday experience, it is Henry’s Law. Still they push the illogical story that tiny CO2 is somehow causing the oceans to heat.
Then given that the average depth of the oceans is 3.4km and that the oceans are thus 340x as massive as the thin air, a 0.8C increase in air temperature means a 0.002C change in water temperature. You have to wonder, as these people allege, whether the oceans can cope.
Still, man made Global Ocean warming is the new story. Warming air warms the oceans, even if the air is not warming. Warming oceans means CO2 increases, making oceans acidic when they are not. Everything seems to be the exact opposite of simple science, but it all justifies the existence of the Global Warming Research Industry. You wonder how we can afford such research into the greatest moral challenge of a generation. The truth.
100
The actual link is here. I did not include it because I saw the article as typical of the fake climate news brigade. It was technically interesting but ends up just another reinforcement of the non science that hot water absorbs CO2 when Australians at least know that hot beer is flat beer.
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TdeF: “Hot beer is flat beer” – wonderful!
What better way to put it could there be? – even a warmist would understand!
Maybe………..
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Ocean surface has cooled in the last year. It has cooled to 700m in the last two years and steady to 2000m for two years. Yet CO2 in the atmosphere has continued to rise. In fact it accelerated last year as the oceans cooled in the upper layers.
The CO2 acceleration is inconsistent with ocean cooling if CO2 is only driven by ocean temperature. It should be decelerating if the ocean temperature was the only contributor to atmospheric CO2.
20
Which ocean temperature? In what ocean? At what latitude? At what time of day or night, which season and at which latitude in which swirling mass of water and storms? That’s the problem. CO2 goes into the cold oceans and outgasses in the tropics. It is the sum which matters, not the ‘ocean surface’ temperature. There is no such thing.
Frankly even the idea of a planetary temperature is loaded with assumptions from valleys to mountains, from the arctic to the very high antarctic. At what altitude? Still, however it is calculated that calculation is showing no change in the manufactured temperature. So there is no global warming and we do not have to discuss man made global warming.
The oceans are nicer given physical chemistry. We can define the altitude exactly, at the water surface. There is no depth component.
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I also remember a lecture from a physicist who studied the speed air exchange with the ocean surface. His theory was that much of it happened in droplets, droplets caused by wave action. A still ocean, lake or stream exchanges much more slowly. That is why people put bubblers in fish tanks or the fish drown.
It is not that the equilibrium is not achieved, but that it is achieved much faster with storms and wind and a turbulent surface. However we are only talking temperature, which gives an indequate measure of speed of exchange. This gaseous exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere is essential for all life on earth and the speed of exchange critical. The very idea of a static surface is against all experience. So exchange can happen more quickly in some areas, in some conditions. Still while our CSIRO is spending billions on solving ‘Climate Change’, no one knows how this exchange really works.
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TdeF Nov,13, 2017 at 11:51 am
Right on the money! Scam!!
I can average the measured temperature of exhaust liquid nitrogen 77K and temperature of ox-acetylene flame 3753K for some so called statistical average temperature of 1915K with absolutely no physical meaning whatsoever! This is the SCAM that young political\religious believers believe; never checking their wallet! 🙂
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All nicely summed up by the old definition of a statistician:
‘A statistition is a fellow who with one foot in a hot frying pan and the other in a bucket of ice states that on average he feels pretty good’.
82
I love the warmist tactics using figures to scare us.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) tells us on its website that the 2016 global average concentration of CO2 was 403ppm, and that the concentrations of C02 are now 145% of pre-industrial levels.
Gulp….
Put another way, CO2 has increased by 45% from its pre-industrial level of 278ppm.
Phew – that’s a bit less frightening, isn’t it?
That’s 125 molecules of CO2 per million of all atmospheric gases (water vapour excluded) more than in 1750AD.
Even less frightening….
An increase of not much from very little, then – that’s why CO2’s a trace gas.
And…..how many of the extra CO2 molecules are there because of human activity, exactly?
50
Warmists are mostly innumerate in my experience. They ussually use big numbers for emotional and political effect, not to accurately quantify.
51
They also have trouble with smaller numbers , they think that 8.1 is less than 6.9 .
10
Yes, the world is wasting $1,500Billion a year to achieve what exactly? What is the result?
We Australians alone are spending $6Billion a year. Why?
Can our politicians please explain this massive waste?
“…..how many of the extra CO2 molecules are there because of human activity, exactly?” Under 2%. You can measure it absolutely.
For those for whom this is new, all living things are made from CO2. Trees to ants to birds to bacteria. One in a million Carbon atoms are radioactive C14, not C12. These atoms are made in the high atmosphere by cosmic rays striking Nitrogen. These new C14 atoms decay with a half life of 5,200 years. So all the ancient coal, gas, oil carbon is completely free of radioactive C14.
So when you burn fossil fuels, you produce a special CO2 with no radioactive C14. Carbon active in the biosphere has one part in a million C14. By measuring C14, you can get the age of anything made from C14. If the CO2 increase to 150% was old Carbon, C14 would be diluted to 2/3. It is unchanged. Further, the atom bomb tests in the 1960s demonstrated that radioactive C14 concentration halves every 14 years and it cannot just vanish, so it has all gone into the oceans.
98% of all the CO2 in the air is not fossil fuel. This was known in the 1950s when it was first measured by Professor Suess, the “Suess” effect. This is despite the corrupted story in Wikipedia.
That is why CO2 rates are not decreasing. Fossil fuel CO2 is simply not there. Stopping the use of fossil fuel achieves nothing, as we are proving at a huge national and international cost.
98% of all gaseous CO2 is already stored compressed in the deep water which covers 75% of the planet.
However these are simply facts and science. Warm water gives off CO2. Simple. Obvious. True. The CO2 increase is demonstrably not man made. Even if it was, CO2 is a trivial greenhouse gas. The major greenhouse gas is our old friend water, the other industrial pollutant from combustion.
I struggle to find a single correct science fact in any pronouncement from say NASA. What they do is have professional ‘communicators’ who spin a horror story which justifies their incomes. There has never been a real debate between real scientists in this climate scientology. Now after 30 years, the Climate Rapture has not happened.
It is increasingly difficult to get anyone to support rapidly rising seas, a temperature which has not gone up in twenty years or the huge waste of money passing WW2 in expense. Billionaire Al Gore could not be happier. Even the Australian government funds his non science visits, a hero of the Left of politics.
90
So 96% of everything in the air is not Co2 and of the 4% that is , 98% is not from fossil fuel use , have I got that right ?
30
Nearly, except 100x too much CO2. The % of CO2 in the air is 0.04%.
At 0.02% all life on earth dies. It takes a real agenda to make 0.04% the greatest moral challenge of a generation. This is a half of a puffteenth of not much.
60
Ok yeah 99.96 % not Co2 .
20
Robert: There’s another consideration as well.
CO2 is measured as dry air samples, because the percentage of water vapour in air is variable.
The concentration of CO2 in a given sample of unprocessed air will be even less than 0.04%.
0.04% is the same as saying that there are are 400 molecules of CO2 in a million of all other gases in the atmosphere, excluding water vapour.
The concentration of CO2 can also be written as 400ppm, i.e. 400 parts per million.
30
If atmospheric CO2 in ppmv is to be scientifically measured using amplitude modulation attenuation at the 14.5 absorption band; all atmospheric H2O must be removed via induced ‘precipitation to solid’ of all H2O molecules as gaseous H2O is also a strong attenuator of EMR amplitude modulation within that same band.
I view your post as deliberate confusion; as technically?; atmospheric CO2 between 180 ppmv and 6000 ppmv has no measurable effect on surface temperature at all or any location!
02
Will: Although I take your point on the technical aspects of CO2 measurement, I fail to see how you can can accuse me of causing deliberate confusion.
I made no comment on the actual measurement techniques used because I have no personal experience of measuring CO2, so thank you for your input on this.
00
Carbon500 November 14, 2017 at 7:26 pm
You actively promote the scam that somehow changes in atmospheric CO2 levels actually ’cause’ some physical surface temperature with no evidence thereof.
02
Will: You say I am actively promoting a scam.
Nonsense! My comments on this thread refer only to measured atmospheric levels of CO2.
Nowhere have I entered into a discussion of the effects of CO2.
I suggest that you re-read what I’ve said.
Let’s be clear about this. I do not support the view that we face dangerous man-made global warming, and if you’ve ever read any of my comments on this site over the years you should be aware of this.
10
Also,lest you wonder, Will – the red thumb next to your comment timed at 3.12 am on the 15th November didn’t come from me!
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Carbon500 November 15, 2017 at 5:54 am
Mea Culpa; I read to much into your writing. I apologize! Please forgive me for again baiting the academic children red thumbers. 🙂
10
Will: Thanks for the reply, I’m pleased that we’re both back on the same track, and your apology is of course appreciated and accepted – a misunderstanding resolved on both sides.
10
I love the warmist tactics using figures to scare us.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) tells us on its website that the 2016 global average concentration of CO2 was 403ppm, and that the concentrations of C02 are now 145% of pre-industrial levels.
Gulp….
Put another way, CO2 has increased by 45% from its pre-industrial level of 278ppm.
Phew – that’s a bit less frightening, isn’t it?
That’s 125 molecules of CO2 per million of all atmospheric gases (water vapour excluded) more than in 1750AD.
Even less frightening….
An increase of not much from very little, then – that’s why CO2’s a trace gas.
And…..how many of the extra CO2 molecules are there because of human activity, exactly?
30
Sorry about the duplicate post – I don’t know what happened.
Thinks….I’ll soon need to change my screen name once we reach 500ppm.
I predict that by that time, we’ll all still be here, and life will be going on as usual.
Perhaps ‘Carbon556’ – the magic and much-feared doubling?
70
500 million years ago Co2 levels were about 20x higher than they are now.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/04/dr-vincent-gray-on-historical-carbon-dioxide-levels/
20
The trend in the polls is clear – Turnbull has successfully destroyed the Liberal Party. Some would argue that was his goal from the start but that’s being too generous as Turnbull is not that clever. Rather it makes more sense to say he is just useless and divorced from reality. He is incapable of being a leader of a picnic outing let alone a nation. Virtually all of his decisions since being PM have been woeful at best and catastrophic at worse. Come on Turnbull do the honorable thing for your party and the nation, and resign from the party and let another take the leadership role. If he refuses then the party has no choice but to push him out. If they don’t I hope they understand they will be decimated at the next election and handing the keys to Shorten and the his party. In that case I like to see the Liberal Party destroyed and fail to be a registered party to let a fresh new party to be formed.
80
Malcolm believed he could unite the left and right of politics under a green banner for the sake of humanity. If CO2 caused global warming he would now be home and hosed, but it was not meant to be.
I see Talcum resigning and replaced by Dutton, but I’m no longer confident it will happen before Xmas.
Peter the new leader will need to be decisive, Bill Shorten wants to join Beijing’s silk road and Dutton would need to match them. How do you feel about that?
40
I will believe it when I see it. I feel Turnbull is like a dog with a bone. He will more likely drag the party into oblivion than admit he is in the wrong and resign. Humbleness is not in his character but it is in Abbott who I believe should be the next PM as I believe he has learned from his mistakes, much like Howard did, and now would make an even better leader for the nation than before. If the party continues to side track him and not elect someone with similar attributes and policies in mind then the Liberal Party is as good as dead no matter who replaces Turnbull. THe Liberal Party has two and only two choices. Continue the way they are and become extinct, or change drastically and become a real alternative to the ALP+Greens. The first order of business by any new leader would be to cancel the agreement with Paris and climate change, and the second is to scrap all subsidies and renewables energy targets. Those two are a given. If the party refuse to see it then they deserve to disappear from the political scene forever.
70
Sounds about right, it depends on the polls coming up.
I agree Tony has done some soul searching since the coup and that he is ready to take over the reins, but his colleagues would like to know in advance whether the new PM would purge them in a reshuffle.
20
Purge like hell. Get rid of all the cancerous leftist elements in the Liberal Party. Otherwise, it will continue to suffer a slow and agonising death. What really would be nice is a split, and the the leftists can be coalition partners of the ALP, much like the Greens. In fact they could even replace the Greens in time. Turnbull would fit very well as the leader of that splinter group. Of course his ego won’t allow it as it would be beneath him. He only ever wanted to be PM, not second fiddle to any party.
60
The Liberal Party must avoid a split or they’ll wander in the political wilderness forever.
Dutton is the preferred option because the original coup plotters will keep their jobs, but Tony’s support for Dutton means that he will get a Ministry of his choice.
20
I am suspicious that the split has already commenced and that Cory Bernardi moved on first to prepare the new party while like minded conservatives stayed behind to fight a rearguard action and intelligence gathering.
70
The situation is moving fast.
‘Malcolm Turnbull has lost key support in cabinet as fears grow he will allow the citizenship crisis to drag the government to an election early next year which would wipe out the Coalition.’
Oz
20
Wipe out the Coalition?
Labor cannot expect to win government.
20
Labor can win government.
10
TRULY GREEN? How Germany’s ‘Energy Transition’ is destroying nature …….
makes for interesting reading and explains how destructive to the environment ‘green’ power generation is
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/11/TrulyGreen.pdf
About the Author Michael Miersch is director of Deutsche Wildtier Stiftung (German Wildlife Foundation), a non-profit organisation devoted the protection of wildlife in Gemany. He is a professional journalist who worked for more than three decades for national newpapers, magazines and TV-stations, amongst others Die Welt,Die Zeit and WDR (public TV). He has written several books about nature, science and politics, some of which have become bestsellers.
This paper is based on a speech given on 24 October 2017 in the House of Lords, London.
20
Some time during the night total Australian Government debt (federal, state and local) broke through the $755 billion mark. It’s going up by about $207 million per day. How will it be repaid as we deindustrialise due to expensive “renewable” electricity and insane unions and excessive government regulations? We are producing less and less, the only viable industries appear to be tourism and the export of educational services.
http://www.australiandebtclock.com.au/
41
It will never be paid back – it’s already gone too far for that. The pain we would have to suffer to pay off that much debt would kill the patient outright. We are not like the US who can “print” as much money as they want as long as the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. We will one day reach a point where our credit rating will be dropped, interest rates start to climb significantly and our economy implodes.
50
The only debt that matters is anything denominated in another currency. The majority of the federal debt is locked up in the savings of retirees or those building nest eggs for retirement. Those savings reduce future government obligations in terms of aged pension payments.
The assets in super funds now total $2.2tr. Without super for the masses, the government would have much larger future obligations than now as there would be higher pension payments.
Japan has huge government debt but the country is a net saver. Japan is still operating a current account surplus.
Australia has much less government debt than Japan but is a net debtor internationally. The banking industry is exposed to foreign currency debt and counterparts risk with any hedging associated with the foreign currency. The risk is in the international debt denominated in other currencies.
40
That’s find now but what happens when the assets behind our supers implode as they must one day? I like most people wish that stock markets and real estate prices keep climbing to the never never. History says that never happens, and in fact always ends catastrophically as each civilisation goes through the decline phase.
20
Not my super I have only cash on deposit in my super/annuity account with no more than $250k in any one government guaranteed ADI. No longer getting 6% interest but the value remains unless inflation takes off ahead of interest rates.
Unless you are young enough to ride through a ten year downturn it is better to have all cash or mostly cash. I know people who got caught out badly in the GFC. Some lost 70% of their super value.
During 2019 Australia’s pollution should become net savers and that will reduce the money growth through mortgage creation; fundamentally as much debt being retired as being created. House prices will level or fall and that could hit the stock market.
Also with all states aiming for their share of the LGCs, electricity will become uneconomic for heavy industry in all states and there will be job losses resulting.
50
I’m retired and looking at selling all my hard assets over the next year or so before the big crunch happens. At least that’s the plan. I suspect our real estate bull market and the US stock bull market will go on for a while longer than that but better to be too early than too late.
30
Smart man Rick
20
Risk averse rather than smart. I had some good returns on geared investments when I was younger but got more conservative as I approached retirement.
30
Iron ore and coal exports are big earners. Iron ore output has quadrupled in the last 15 years.
30
What passes for “debate” is underway on this wobegotten site.
It would be good if Rareke or AndyG5 were to weigh in to the discussion. Or Jo.
40
well you certainly failed. So you think that Keating was wrong that Ball and Harris wrote an article devoid of supporting evidence. It is pretty obvious that they did because they present no supporting evidence. Keating was guilty of taking delight in delighting in picking the low hanging fruit.
23
A Ege Ye,desmogblog? Really?
30
So Gee Aye your against arguments without supporting evidence ?
21
GeeAye.. EVERYTHING you say is devoid of supporting evidence. !!
You are a leaf without substance.
33
This is the FUGLY and DECEITFUL Dr Keating.. SACKED from his university
This is the sort of person GA holds in esteem.
http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/contractsprof_blog/2014/07/eighth-circuit-upholds-constitutionality-of-civility-clause-in-termination-of-professor.html
32
I didn’t hold him in esteem. I agreed with his critique. I don’t see anything here from you or others that make me think he was wrong.
22
“I agreed with his critique”
Again, proving that you are a monuMENTAL fool !!
Basically EVERY word he says in low-end opinionated NON-fact.
He has not countered one single point from Tim Ball.. because he knows that he can’t.
Here is the articles by Tim Ball and Tom Harris.
http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/03/an-avalanche-of-global-warming-alarmism-is-about-to-hit/
Please point out where they are incorrect.
You have NOTHING, as usual, GA.
01
And this Keating twerp cites SkS, more than once…
…. which shows his absolute disdain for truth and real science.
No wonder GeeAye is a follower.
22
GeeAye
Here is the articles by Tim Ball and Tom Harris.
http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/03/an-avalanche-of-global-warming-alarmism-is-about-to-hit/
Please point out where they are incorrect.
Or is your idle Dr Keating yapping mindlessly as he normally spends his time doing.
33
Did someone here mention Toronto?
YYZ
Training map
Zoom in to find the met station
20
Schwarzenegger flies to Germany to say –
13 Nov: Reuters: Megan Rowling: Schwarzenegger: Let’s slap a public health warning on fossil fuels
BONN: (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Arnold Schwarzenegger, former California governor and Hollywood actor and film producer, issued a challenge on Sunday to governments to start labelling fossil fuels with a public health warning that their use could cause illness and death…
Schwarzenegger suggested telling customers at petrol stations that “what you pump into your tank may kill you”, and plastering oil tankers driving along highways with messages that their contents are dangerous to health…
https://www.reuters.com/article/climatechange-health-fossilfuels/schwarzenegger-lets-slap-a-public-health-warning-on-fossil-fuels-idUSL8N1NI0PM
Celebrity Cars Blog: Arnold Schwarzenegger
http://www.celebritycarsblog.com/celebrity/arnold-schwarzenegger/
40
With statements like that he could qualify as the leftist lunatic of the week Unless someone has another nominee
51
How do you define leftist?
I don’t mind this definition
how does a health label fit with political leanings?
24
Close but a better definition would be leftist policies support suppression of free speech, the creation of an elitist political class, and envy of any sucessful person who achieved something without government intervention.
Animal Farm and 1984 were spot on.
70
I’m not exactly sure what happened but I pressed the gee aye on recent comments and was instantly transported to the wonderfull website of Gee Aye and what did I find there ?
He has no followers according to the site !
He doesn’t like DDT!
The Guardian and NYT are the bible !
Theories are gold in science !
And I lifted this which I’m still shaking my head at .
“Yep, this is another placeholder in case I need to move someone on from their argument by distraction. You know the one where they write, “it is only a theory”. Amazingly, people still try to slip that one into an argument. They are often the same people who distract with, “it is only a model”, without understanding that their lives would soon come to an end without models.”.
71
I think that distraction bit qualifies him as a troll which he says he’s not .
61
What only one red thumb ? I should have mentioned your (ahem ) stance on evolution.
30
““Yep, this is another placeholder in case I need to move someone on from their argument by distraction. You know the one where they write, “it is only a theory”. Amazingly, people still try to slip that one into an argument. They are often the same people who distract with, “it is only a model”, without understanding that their lives would soon come to an end without models.”.”
If that is GeeAye speak, NO WONDER he constantly comes across an ignorant mindless little anti-science empty shell. !
52
yeah I copied it off the saddest website I’ve ever seen .
30
Or there’s this remembering he has no followers .
“I have had so many requests from my legions of fans to post more blogs. No really, there are a surprising number of people out there that read and re read my pastes… I mean posts … and check in to see if I have added anything new.”
30
If you read his comments carefully you will see the word hypocrite quite a bit .
”
All I wanted to do with this post was link to an article, but having written this title I am looking at it with admiration and fantasising about a blog with this title full of articles tearing apart the ridiculous Dunning-Kruger types who create evolutionary stories to justify whatever they like. I come across at least one example per day, where the proponent uses a confected evolutionary explanation to fit their own ideology and not only are they not scrutinsed or questioned sceptically but they are applauded.
To rectify such arrogance requires deconstructing their argument/story and providing a detailed explanation, with references, about how evolution has been found to work through 100 years of observation and experimentation – within 24 hours of being written so as not to be left unread. Then you have to deal with the denial and the further comments made from ignorance that follow.
So Here Is The Link
Having worked with Marlene Zuk many years ago I was drawn to read her book. This article gives a pretty good indication of the nature of the contents and I share the critique that it is sometimes trying to crack a nut with a sledgehammer. And here is an example of a paleofantasist with a poor grasp of the mechanics of natural selection and the details of human evolution.”.
20
ROM was the object of his attention here as this is where the link took me.
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/01/there-goes-another-consensus-crash-diets-solve-diabetes-in-3-weeks/#comment-1367326
10
I checked his other post and there were no comments or replies from his legion of loyal fans but when I checked the above I noted a massive three replies so being the curious type I checked but alas all three comments were from GeeAye .
Ok enough I promise no more .
30
Thanks for the advertising Robert but my stellar blog does not need your help. It is forging new frontiers in blog space all by itself. One day it will match the brilliance of time cube http://timecube.2enp.com/
00
Dude you need professional help ! Stellar is not the word I would use more like a shrine to your fantasies and feeling of self importance .
No posts no followers and I can only wonder of the 500 odd views how many like me clicked the wrong thing .
00
Robert,
surely you jest. I am on the verge of signing a publication deal that would make your eyes water. I’ll reveal all in the blog but I call it “Force A to W: the forces that came before X”
It is in review right now and will be published quite soon. The only thing holding me up are a few reviewers comments.
00
As long as you believe that mate that’s what’s important, I’m sure your loyal throng of followers will snap the book up in seconds and Al Gore will be on the phone about a movie deal .
You realise you will have to move to Hollywood and live in a mansion but at least you’ll get that private jet you always wanted , and don’t forget with an endless supply of money you just may be able to buy some friends .
00
oh and right wing politics is devoid of elites? That is very funny and that is the side I work for so I’ve seen a few of these non-elites. e.g the current POTUS.
Anyway, your other comment about control etc also has nothing to do with left wing – you’ve just shoe-horned your personal biases onto an unrelated issue. If you go around saying leftist at everything you don’t like it will lose its meaning, if it has not already.
10
err… the POTUS is an example of an elite not of someone I’ve worked for
00
P45 is the stunning example of a self made but elected Monarch!! Not able to be boughten but just like the Monarchs of England, Scandihovian countries, and Jordan; well aware that the support of the peasants\serfs\workers\producers maintains that monarchy against the self appointed elite NGOs, banksters, lobbyists, politicians, and all government employees. The family of P45 have all the markings of a dynasty!
All the best!-will-
22
self made? He was a rich kid from New York’s “high society”. Making more money using money you are given is great but it is not self made.
00
Gee Aye November 14, 2017 at 11:41 am
Ha! That obvious very rare social\financial skill is what creates a Monarchy; with the help of us armed peasants! We can only wonder if his offsprouts are up to the task of dynasty! Put your money where your mouth is! I hab many many finely honed pitchfork, for purchase, should you decide to participate!
12
I’ll agree to anything you say Will as your comments are always spot on and easy to parse
11
Ok now you’ve lost it , where did I say any of that ? Mate your scaring me get help now seriously get help .
00
you didn’t write that and so what? My comment was nested under a comment made by someone else.
10
If it weren’t for the rest of Hollywood Arnold might stand out as a climate hypocrite. As it is, his Hummer-hyprocrisy is probably neutralised by keeping a Prius or two, and maybe by installing some LED bulbs in one of the mansions.
Actually, the Gurrrly Govern-uh may have ambitions back in the old country (which, something tells me, he did not reach by paddling then walking). Seen any of those creepy maps of a regionalised Europe, such as the one put out by the European Parliament? Only Germany stays big and it actually gets to absorb Austria.
So after all this time they not only get their Reich but they get their Anschluss. But a green Reich and green Anschluss, of course.
30
12 Nov: ClimateChangeNews: German coal mining could end by 2030s, says Merkel’s coalition negotiator
Leader of North Rhine-Westphalia, who is leading the CDU’s coalition talks on energy, said mines across Germany COULD be closed by the decade after next
By Karl Mathiesen in Bonn
Armin Laschet, the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia and a member of chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party (CDU), has been locked in negotiations with Greens and Free Democrats over the future of coal in Germany…
“We don’t have an end date,” he said. “The expectation is it could be the thirties.” In his state, it was possible mines could close by the beginning of the 2030s, he said.
Laschet was speaking at the Climate Summit of Local and Regional Leaders, held on the sidelines of the UN Cop23 climate talks in Bonn.
In remarks to the summit, Laschet said his own state had built its prosperity on coal. If North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) were a country it would be the 19th largest economy on earth, he said…
Laschet told CHN the speed of that coal phase-out was dependent on developments in energy storage, which can smooth out the peaks and troughs of weather-dependent renewable energies.
He said the faster phase-out Greens were calling for would compromise grid stability…
Responding to his comments to the summit, former UN climate chief Christiana Figures told Laschet the only negative from her time leading the climate secretariat based in Bonn was watching coal boats shipping the fuel down the Rhine. It was “painful”, she said.
“Coal is the first fossil fuel that needs to leave ASAP,” said Figures…
The 2020 target Germany has set for its CO2 emissions is a 40% cut from its 1990 levels. But the government now predicts emissions will only fall 31.7% to 32.5%.
A leaked paper from the environment ministry noted that this failure (LINK) would be a “disaster” for Germany’s reputation on the world stage…
(Climate Home News’ reporting at Cop23 is supported in part by the European Climate Foundation)
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/11/12/german-coal-mining-end-2030s-says-merkels-coalition-negotiator/
10
“ups ante”? wasn’t it already 50% target by 2030?
lengthy, read all if you want the full details:
13 Nov: RenewEconomy: Giles Parkinson: Qld Labor ups ante on renewables – more ambition, new technology
Queensland Labor has announced a significant new commitment to its renewable energy, unveiling an updated policy paper that aims for at least 50 per cent renewable energy by 2030, and committing new funding to the state’s first solar thermal with storage project.
The new policy push appears deliberately designed to contrast with the back-ward thinking of the LNP Coalition, which vows to scrap renewable incentives and targets, and wants to build a new coal fired power station.
Labor is also keen to counter some of its own confused messaging over the Adani project, which is putting inner Brisbane seats at risk, including that of deputy premier Jacky Trad…
Queensland Labor also re-committed to creating a third government-owned generation company that would compete with the fossil fuel-based incumbents – Stanwell and CS Energy – and provide another 1,000MW of renewables, with a focus on “flexible, dispatchable” generation.
This, said premier Anastasia Palaszczuk, would be on top of the 400MW of renewable energy in the tender that has currently been put on the back-burner pending the outcome of the election…
“Queensland now has the most large-scale renewable projects under construction of any state in Australia. More is on the way with another 8,800MW of proposed large-scale renewable energy projects at earlier stages of development – $20 billion investment which would support 15,000 jobs.”…ETC
http://reneweconomy.com.au/qld-labor-ups-ante-on-renewables-more-ambition-new-technology-59459/
13 Nov: ABC: Queensland election: Deputy Premier Jackie Trad’s seat under threat from Greens, poll shows
By Chris O’Brien
Queensland Deputy Premier Jackie Trad could be in danger of losing her seat of South Brisbane if Liberal National Party (LNP) voters give their second preference to the Greens, according to a Galaxy poll.
The poll in The Courier-Mail suggests Ms Trad is under growing threat from Greens candidate Amy McMahon, who could become the party’s first elected state MP.
The Greens have campaigned hard against the planned Adani coal mine, an issue that has caught Ms Trad in the difficult position of having to support her Government’s backing for the project while trying to respond to the anti-mining views of her electorate…
Ms Trad’s primary vote is on 38 per cent — four points down from the 2015 election — with Ms McMahon and the LNP’s Simon Quinn both on 29 per cent.
The LNP poll result is a three-point drop from 2015.
Officially the LNP will recommend that its voters preference the Greens last in every seat, but Ms McMahon could overtake Ms Trad if LNP supporters make an exception in South Brisbane.
The Greens are also expected to get a preference flow from independent candidates in South Brisbane.
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said she had no doubt Ms Trad would retain the seat…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-13/queensland-election-deputy-premier-jackie-trad-seat-greens/9143158
20
What? Does Ms Palaszczuk think she’s running a chook raffle rather than a State?
Proposing “another 8,800MW of proposed large-scale renewable energy projects” in Qld. Allowing for a 30% capacity factor, that’s an additional 2,640 MW of generation on average, but varying from 0-8,800 MW.
In the State of Qld, with an average demand of about 9,000 MW, where is all that power going to go?
With existing coal/generators in Qld of 11,000 MW nameplate capacity, which stations is she going to close?
How big will the job losses be?
If nothing closes and stations just coast along at under 50% utilisation, what will the cost of electricity jump to?
Back in 2010, the Qld wholesale electricity price averaged 3.3 cents/KWh, in 2015 it was 5.5 cents, and for the 2017 financial year 9.3 cents/KWh.
She is trying to sell a very costly chook. Do journalists ever do any analysis or ask any pertinent questions?
60
See just how clever the Qld Premier is being here.
The current Nameplate total for coal fired power in Queensland is 8149MW.
The Premier has announced 8800MW of renewables. (Please, oh please, someone ask the Premier where and what)
Voila! Say! Whaddayaknow, 50% renewable.
Who would have thought it would be that easy, eh! Job done! Next!
8800MW of renewable projects at early stages of development. I guess political campaign thought bubbles now count as, umm, early stages of development.
Give me strength.
People, trust me, there is most definitely NOT 8800MW of renewables in any stage of development in Queensland.
Take into account all fossil fuel power plants in Qld, and you’re looking at 11700MW.
The very next power plant to be opened in Queensland is the revived Gas Fired Plant Swanbank E, a 385MW CCGT, capable of providing 24/7 power. (link to article)
Tony.
50
Robber/TonyFromOz –
just add it to the other absurdities that is our Aussie politics today. where are the journalists who will quiz her?
20
Just heard the new one nation senator that replaced Malcolm Roberts has defected to independent .
30
surprisingly sensible piece in NYT:
7 Nov: NYT: Eduardo Porter: Wind and Solar Power Advance, but Carbon Refuses to Retreat
And yet as climate diplomats gather this week in Bonn, Germany, for the 23rd Conference of the Parties under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, I would like to point their attention to a different, perhaps gloomier statistic: the world’s carbon intensity of energy.
The term refers to a measure of the amount of CO2 spewed into the air for each unit of energy consumed. It offers some bad news: It has not budged since that chilly autumn day in Kyoto 20 years ago. Even among the highly industrialized nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the carbon intensity of energy has declined by a paltry 4 percent since then, according to the International Energy Agency (LINK)…
This statistic, alone, puts a big question mark over the strategies deployed around the world to replace fossil energy. In a nutshell: Perhaps renewables are not the answer.
Over the past 10 years, governments and private investors have collectively spent $2 trillion on infrastructure to draw electricity from the wind and the sun, according to estimates by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (LINK). Environmental Progress, a nonprofit that advocates nuclear power as an essential tool in the battle against climate change, says that exceeds the total cost of all nuclear plants built to date or under construction, adjusted for inflation…
Solar and wind capacity installed in 2015 was more than 10 times what the International Energy Agency had forecast a decade before.
Still, except for very limited exceptions, all this wind and sun has not brought about much decarbonization. Indeed, it has not added much clean power to the grid…
The most worrisome aspect about the all-out push for a future powered by renewables has to do with cost: The price of turbines and solar panels may be falling, but the cost of integrating these intermittent sources of energy — on when the wind blows and the sun shines; off when they don’t — is not. This alone will sharply curtail the climate benefits of renewable power.
Integrating renewable sources requires vast investments in electricity transmission — to move power from intermittently windy and sunny places to places where power is consumed. It requires maintaining a backstop of idle plants that burn fossil fuel, for the times when there is no wind or sun to be had. It requires investing in power-storage systems at a large scale.
These costs will ultimately be reflected in power prices…
But there is some evidence that among investors, at least, the excitement may be waning. After half a decade of sustained increases, investment in solar and wind energy has been fairly flat since 2010, at around $250 billion per year. While that is a lot of money, it is nowhere near enough…
I would suggest that the challenge is not just to raise more money. Building a zero-carbon energy system requires broader thinking about the technological mix.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/business/climate-carbon-renewables.html
20
hottest year evah:
12 Nov: UK Independent: UK weather latest: Britain braces for three week ‘cold snap’ and snow as polar winds drop temperatures
Country set to shiver as Arctic winds bring temperature to an icy -7C
by Joseph Gamp
The MET office has also forecast that the mercury will drop to as low as -7C on Sunday night – 8 degrees lower than Iceland, which is said to currently be recording temperatures of 1C.
Colder weather and snow is set to last longer this year due to the La Nina weather phenomenon, which last hit the UK in 2010, when much of the country was covered with heavy snowfall…
“From November 26 to December 10, temperatures look like being below normal generally, with an increased risk of snow at times, especially in the North, and an increased chance of frost through the period.
“Minimum temperatures could exceed the coldest temperatures of the season,” the spokesperson continued.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-latest-britain-braces-three-week-cold-snow-polar-winds-drop-temperatures-a8051001.html
11 Nov: WCNC: Another cold morning expected in the Carolinas
After a frigid start to Saturday morning, with temperatures hovering near freezing temperatures for the start of the Novant Health Charlotte Marathon, Sunday morning is expected to be nearly as cold.
A freeze warning was issued for Chesterfield and Lancaster counties until 8 a.m. Sunday
TWEET: 11 Nov: Sarah Fortner Meteorologist WCNC: The entire northeast was below normal this morning. Sunday will be cold again in Charlotte but not quite as cold!
http://www.wcnc.com/weather/another-cold-morning-expected-in-the-carolinas/491177817
20
Just seen this story about a solar powered 4×4 race across the Simpson desert , the practicality of it leaves a lot to be desired .
http://unsealed4x4.com.au/u4x4/issue043/#53
40
At last a practical EV, cigar shaped cylinder container one human being, solar panels covered, battery bank powered electric motors, high speed until the clouds cover slow or stop.
40
Suzuki hit turbulence, westerly winds and sailed sideways off road.
30
Within no time EV will replace internal combustion engines, and then the Cow will leap over the Moon.
51
What happened to the pea green boat, owl, pussy cat etc?
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Aircons cranking up in SA today as Adelaide reaches 34C. Demand reached 2200MW at 1630hrs. Remember a few weeks back the peak demand was 1200MW. It shows how significant the air-conditioning load has become.
There is 2400MW of reliable generation capacity this week in SA but it is shown as dropping to 2200MW next week. Demand is forecast to reach 2700MW next week. Victoria will not have the ability to export if it also heating up as the state is also forecast to have a reserve shortfall.
What are the chances of having good winds with a high centred over the SA/Vic border. The weather forecast shows the high sliding into Bass Straight so that may not deliver the high temperature that gets the aircons really cranking.
You could take bets on which state will start load shedding first.
DON’T PANIC – Victoria is getting 100MW of diesel plant hooked up to keep the lights on:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/diesel-generators-to-bolster-victorias-energy-network-over-summer/news-story/459c7bf8de58a3f0349e580c4e560f7f
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13 Nov: Bloomberg: Jess Shankleman: Big Insurers Brace for Perilous Future as Climate Risks Escalate
Munich Re warns disaster insurance may become too expensive
Swiss Re says parametric policies one solution to super storms
After one of the worst Atlantic hurricane seasons in history, the world’s biggest insurers say the industry needs to get its act together if it wants to survive climate change…
Insuring against weather natural disasters could reach unaffordable levels for households and companies, while the potential damage is so unpredictable it may be impossible to model — an unacceptable risk to insurers.
“Sometime in the future there will be the situation where people cannot afford any longer to buy catastrophe insurance — this is what we want to avoid,” Ernst Rauch, the head of the Corporate Climate Centre at Munich Re…
“It’s a big concern of Swiss Re that there’s such a huge gap between the economic losses and what is insured,” said Peter Zimmerli, the head of atmospheric perils at Swiss Re, the second-biggest reinsurer. “Some of the signals of global warming are just there — they can’t be debated any more.”…
U.S. insurers have been slower to adjust in part because the issue is so politicized, according to Cynthia McHale, director of insurance at Ceres, a sustainability advocacy group in Boston. President Donald Trump denies climate change exists and has pulled America out of the Paris climate accord.
That attitude needs to change if the industry wants to be ready for the likelihood that climate change will cause more frequent super storms, according to Rauch at Munich Re.
“Those who deny something is changing in our atmosphere will have a bigger problem in the future because they don’t see the need for adaptation,” he said. “Our American clients understand the numbers. Maybe they don’t want to hear about climate change, but they look at the numbers and the numbers speak for themselves.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/big-insurers-brace-for-perilous-future-as-climate-risks-escalate
and, if you believe any of that, I have some insurance to sell to you.
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More stats from Gee Aye blogspot .
Since 2011 a whopping 574 people have visited his amazing site but 3 of them were me .
Don’t click on the science link it takes you nowhere .
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Excellent Robert.
The next quest is this. Can we expose Gee Aye?
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“Can we expose Gee Aye?”
Not nice exposing children to ‘disgusting’!!!
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I notice the ABC now include the word “Opinion” next to stories ! Did I miss something or ar ABC trying to clean up their misinformation campaign?
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comment in moderation since 2pm re: 12 Nov: UK Independent: UK weather latest: Britain braces for three week ‘cold snap’ and snow as polar winds drop temperatures
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***Merkel, ‘who is known as the “Climate Chancellor”’?
by whom, WaPo? you and the rest of the FakeNewsMSM?
why not call her the “Lignite Chancellor”?
12 Nov: SpokesmanReview: from WaPo: In shadow of Germany’s climate conference, a village disappears to make way for coal
By Griff Witte and Luisa Beck
IMMERATH, Germany – The hospital is gone. So are most of the houses, with more being knocked down daily. Not even the bodies remain in the tree-shaded cemetery, where centuries-old bones were recently dug up and moved.
There is far more digging to come – enough to extinguish any trace that Immerath, a once-quaint farming village in the fertile western Germany countryside, ever existed. Because beneath the rich soil lies a substance even more valuable: coal.
The demolition of Immerath – making way for the expansion of mega-mines that will produce billions of tons of carbon emissions in the coming decades and leave a deep gash where villages dating to Roman times once stood – represents the dark underside of Germany’s efforts to address climate change.
The growth of German coal mines at a time when the fuel ???is being rapidly phased out elsewhere also shows how difficult it can be for countries, even ones that aggressively commit to cleaner technologies, to actually make the switch…
Germany is led by Angela Merkel, ***who is known as the “Climate Chancellor” for her global leadership on the issue even as the Trump-led United States has abandoned it…
The Greens are pushing Merkel to agree in coalition talks to an end for German coal by 2030…
But (Rebecca Bertram, an energy expert with the Greens party-aligned Heinrich Böll Foundation) said that, given the politics involved, 2030 is looking unlikely. “It would be more realistic to think about 2040 or 2045,” she said…
“We don’t want to exit coal energy nationally only to import coal or nuclear-energy from other countries,” said Hermann Otto Solms, point person for the pro-business Free Democrats, the party that is likely to join the Greens and Merkel’s conservatives in the next German government.
Renewables are the future, Solms said. But the country needs to build the networks needed to transport that power…
“If we push renewables, we have to create the infrastructure,” Solms said.
Meanwhile, brown coal is plentiful and cheap…
Germany already plans to get out of hard coal, with the last underground mines closing next year. But brown coal, also known as lignite, is another story.
Mined in giant open pits, it is easier to access but lower quality – and, therefore, dirtier to burn – than hard coal. And in parts of western Germany known as the Rhineland, it’s ubiquitous – the leftover remains of 25-million-year-old swampland.
You don’t have to dig far to find it, and given the low price of carbon under Europe’s emissions trading system, there is little financial cost to burning it.
“There’s no real economic incentive to phase out coal,” said Ottmar Edenhofer, chief economist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “To stimulate clean innovation, we need a minimum price for CO2.”…
Rather than scale back ???as the world turns toward cleaner fuels, they are forging ahead in Germany with ambitious expansion plans.
Among them is the one that will wipe Immerath from the map…
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/nov/12/in-shadow-of-germanys-climate-conference-a-village/
but Donald Trump is an evil climate denier?
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Please Rick,
be aware that home airconditioning is only a small part of this rise in consumption.
The largest part of it is HVAC in the Adelaide high rise buildings, and the extra ‘work’ being done by cooling and cold storage in Supermarkets.
This fallacy of home air conditioning causing huge rises in power consumption just is not true.
The temperature yesterday was similar and that’s for a day when everybody is at home, and not at work like today, and consumption was 400MW+ lower yesterday than it is for today.
And it will always show up more on States with lower consumption as is the case with South Australia where even a small rise will show up as ‘seeming’ to be large, and SouthAus only consumes 5.5% of the Australian total.
Tony.
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This above comment of mine was directed to Rick Will’s Comment Number 44 above here.
Tony.
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It is air-conditioning whether in a home or a building. When it heats the air-conditioners crank up. It takes a lot of energy to reject heat from a high rise building. Same thing with expansive supermarkets.
All fridges, freezers and cool rooms crank up as well when the temperature rises whether they are domestic or commercial.
South Australia’s load is highly weather dependent as is their generation. Most of the base load has disappeared as we saw when the demand dropped to 600MW during a mild spring day two weeks ago.
The peak demand today was almost 4 times the minimum demand two weeks ago. Heavy industry has all but departed departed the state.
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Great stuff
http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/11/law-unto-australian-bureau-meteorology/
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