NEW POSTS ARE APPEARING BELOW
Oops, please. The bank balance is trending to zero, and I must pay attention. Can you can spare the equivalent of a beer, a steak, or a month of bandwidth ($100) for 2018? I, we, will be ever so grateful.
We can do this thanks to philanthropists like you. It’s a testament to the fantastic readers here that nine years, 2,863 posts and 450,000 comments later, this blog is still going and somehow a family of five just gets by. Long live the internet! Details on how to help below:
Thanks for your contribution, no matter how big or small, to the ‘Tip Jar’ via Pay Pal or credit card (or located at the top right of the page). There are also non-paypal, direct transfer, non-credit card options, and the account is happy to have $A, $US, and pounds, euros, CAD and NZD too. (NAB Account BSB: 086420 Number:563148308. Cheers!
Independent science needs independent support.
PS: Merry Christmas to you!
Paypal buttons below: (I’ll keep this a sticky post for a few days).
UPDATE GBP Button fixed.
| Click on the currency button, and write in the quantity. | ||
 Other non-paypal, non-credit card options (ie. mail and direct transfer details). |
||
PS: Thanks to WC, AJ, CK, AR, GC, BM, MB, TK, X, JL, KR, people who help regularly through NAB and who I would like to thank. You know who you are!
Jo,I have been reading your site for several years and would love to donate,however I despise PayPal. ..they took over my attempt to use VISA, so I am here to see if there’s another way…above email will work if you respond
thanks
Dan
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Dan, thanks, I understand. It depends a lot on where you are. The info on the non-paypal possibilities is here. Suggestions are welcome on other alternatives. Thank you!
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Jo,
I’ll make a deposit into the bank account first thing next year but thought I’d mention that when I click on the Tip Jar button a page opens with a square spinning around a lock. Something I haven’t experienced on any other site. I too would prefer not to use PayPal so all is good.
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Jo,
I suggest that you open a patreon account. It seems a better method and is international.
Merry Christmas to all.
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Thanks for all your hard work and effort Jo.
I got my chocolates :-)!
Merry Christmas and happy New Year.
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Hi Dan, I have absolutely no problem with PayPal and use it for almost every web purchase, these days, using a choice of two different credit cards.
I was delighted to be able to buy 100 of Jo’s chocolate because she is clearly the world’s best chocolatier! She is also the world’s best climate blogger and she and David deserve the greatest number of chocolates we can each afford to buy.
Some come on everybody – fill their stockings for them.
A Merry Christmas and my hopes for a much better year, global warming wise, to all of you who roam this excellent blog.
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Congratulations on a marvellous blog Jo. And merry Christmas and a happy new year from over the ditch. Enjoy the 20 chocolates, 2 for each member of the family, or you can keep them all for you if you like.
David, being an electrical engineer, might like to take a look at a series I have started at Kiwithinker … Modelling power system stability with differential equations and that good stuff. http://www.kiwithinker.com/2017/12/modelling-power-system-stability-part-1/
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Merry Christmas and many thanks for the years.
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Jo, I have a solution. Get David appointed as Senior Science Adviser to the PM office. Salary around $200K per year negotiable. You may have to move to Canberra though. 🙂
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I think David been here and done that, Canberra is an infested and nest of leftist ants
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More like fire ants. They are a foreign invasive specie. Once established, they multiply their nests to cover a very large area. They attack viciously if you dare encroach on what they consider their territory. Anything that lives and moves is seen by them as a fair target for consumption. They are nearly impossible to eradicate once they are established in their position of dominance.
I spent a summer trying to eradicate them from my property in the Southern California high desert. I only eliminated one nest with the other seven nests (and counting) hardly being bothered.
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Hmm…can you douse the nest in petrol and drop a match on it? Then drop deisel onto it to keep it going?
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Just pisses them off.
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I rather think a species of INF-ANTS, well going by behaviour and knowledge of the world.
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Ping.
Merry Christmas Jo and family.
The bestest description of this blog was by Will, a few posts back.
Unique.
Keith
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100 chocolates sent you way
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If you can afford can afford it; so can I! 🙂 The extra fifty come with a request. Please get hubby David to shovel in a few SCIENCE threads! No BS, no politics! Discuss only what is repeatably measurable! The actual diameter of your upside down Reindeer training wheels would be nice!
All the best!-will-
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“The actual diameter of your upside down Reindeer training wheels would be nice!” Personal integrity is mandatory! 20 cm± 4 nm; 20 cm± 4 LY same thing; as long as the ‘measurer’, although training wheel is now underwater, is still using the bestus most accurate piece of string he can find.!
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We are but USUNS trying to survive without a clue! More better are young calf. An Earthling food source! Calf at least has MOMMA cow that worries ’bout fate of said calf.. Just what do you have “Mother ƒucker”?
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?
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Will.
Did I misread your post?
Or does it need editing.
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Did you spring from the bed to see what was the matter! YET! 🙂 Is a diameter a length or an interval? What happen if you over-tolerance (±light year) an interval?HO Ho ho, weep.
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Mother, what?
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Mother Latin small f with hook = function = florin ƒucker = ‘Father'(daddy), along with Son and da Spook; fer dis joyous season!
All the best!-will-
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Keith,
Temporarily consider the phrase “we are made in the image of GOD” as absolutely TRUE, until falsified, somehow!!! Scientifically define the words GOD, image, we, made! THEN try to falsify such science. Negative, inverse, conjugate interval (diameter) remains. We are left to fly around in ever decreasing radius until flying up\down own anus!
Merry Christmas!
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I did that too.
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imagine what it would be like trying to understand the CAGW scam without jo!
21 Dec: UK Telegraph: Facebook ditches fake news flag after admitting it was making the problem worse
By Margi Murphy
Facebook is getting rid of its fake news red flags because they were making fabricated media reports appear more believable to its users.
The social network began showing “disputed” warnings next to articles in December to alert people that third party(-APPROVED) fact-checking websites deemed them misleading.
It will now show a selection of “related articles” next to offending stories instead. These will give more context and could help people learn the facts surrounding a situation through ???reputable media publications…
???”Academic research on correcting misinformation has shown that putting a strong image, like a red flag, next to an article may actually entrench deeply held beliefs – the opposite effect to what we intended,” Facebook product manager Tessa Lyons wrote in a blog-post.
It conducted research which suggested that false news stories with “related articles” next to it were shared fewer times than those highlighted with a red flag…
“False news undermines the unique value that Facebook offers: the ability for you to connect with family and friends in meaningful ways. It’s why we’re investing in better technology and more people to help prevent the spread of misinformation,” Lyons wrote.
“Overall, we’re making progress. Demoting false news (as identified by fact-checkers) is one of our best weapons because demoted articles typically lose 80 percent of their traffic. This destroys the economic incentives spammers and troll farms have to generate these articles in the first place.”…
BOX: Facebook’s tips for spotting fake news ETC ETC ETC
#7: Check the evidence. Check the author’s sources to confirm they are accurate. Lack of evidence, or a reliance on ***unnamed experts may indicate false news. (THAT ELIMINATES ABOUT 97% OF FAKENEWSMSM STORIES)
???US intelligence agencies are currently investigating the impact of Russian meddling on the outcome of last year’s election. Facebook said that as many as 126 million Americans saw content from Russia-based agents on the site over the past two years.
The social network was pressed by MPs to reveal similar figures relating to Russian adverts around the time of the European referendum and the general election in June. But Facebook last week claimed just 75p was spent by Russian’s on adverts aimed at UK audiences.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/12/21/facebook-ditches-fake-news-flag-making-problem-worse/
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re UK Telegraph writer of the hilarious Facebook article: Margi Murphy, who re-tweets Naomi Klein on her Twitter page, used to write for The Sun:
14 Feb: UK Sun: WHAT LIES BENEATH Massive lake of boiling carbon discovered underneath the United States could spark climate chaos
A carbon pool of this size could emit dangerous carbon that could have a direct effect on humanity as we know it
by MARGI MURPHY
SCIENTISTS have discovered a colossal pool of molten carbon stretching 1.8million square kilometres under the United States.
The grim find is a warning to humanity that the planet could easily spark climate chaos without the help of humans…
Geologists at Royal Holloway, University of London’s Department of Earth Sciences found the melting region – which is just 350km below Earth’s surface – using a huge network of 583 seismic sensors that measure Earth’s vibrations, to create a picture of the area’s deep sub surface.
They were shocked…
Scientists believe that if any of this carbon was to be emitted into the atmosphere it could have grave consequences for the environment…
“It would be impossible for us to drill far enough down to physically ‘see’ Earth’s mantle, so using this massive group of sensors we have to paint a picture of it using mathematical equations to interpret what is beneath us,” said Dr Sash Hier-Majumder of Royal Holloway…
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2864485/massive-lake-of-boiling-carbon-discovered-underneath-the-united-states-could-spark-climate-chaos/
24 Feb: UK Sun: SOMETHING FISHY’S GOING ON Scientists discover underwater ‘pool’ of gas and claim it’s helping to cause catastrophic global warming
British researchers have found a huge reservoir of methane in the depths of the Pacific Ocean
by MARGI MURPHY
Experts from Queen Mary, University of London, found that microbes are generating a vast lake of methane in the tropical Pacific Ocean…
It follows the discovery of the terrifying “Jacuzzi of Despair” off the Gulf of Mexico which will kill anything that swims in it…
Queen Mary scientists aboard the Royal Research Ship James Cook spent six weeks mapping the methane pool between Panama and Hawaii.
Their findings are published in the International Society for Microbial Ecology journal.
Dr Felicity Shelley, from the university’s School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, said: “The research is novel because it’s the first time anyone has successfully retrieved sediment from this part of the ocean and directly measured methane production using specialised equipment on board the research ship.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2949970/scientists-discover-underwater-pool-of-gas-and-claim-its-helping-to-cause-catastrophic-global-warming/
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pat:
Merry Christmas – especially for that article. MP of carbon is 3642℃ and the BP 4827℃, and ONLY 350 kilometres of rock stopping it from surfacing. Hang on, later they claim it is molten carbonate. Someone failed chemistry as well as logic.
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Just wait until the same scientists\fools discover that the Earth has a negative diameter and the ‘atmosphere’ actually is on the ‘inside’! Parity RULEZ 🙂
All the best!-will-
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Let’s all panic shall we? 😉
Wishing a very Happy and Merry Christmas to All.
I hope the choccies arrived in good order a few days ago 🙂
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Its a bit early for april 1sr isnt it?
I laughed do hard i cried when.i read this….desperate stuff…what next- carbon zombies? The denier un-dead?
Its like a c grade high school home movie….what a giggle….
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Its a bit early for april 1sr isnt it?
I laughed do hard i cried when.i read this….desperate stuff…what next- carbon zombies? The denier un-dead?
Its like a c grade high school home movie….what a giggle….
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Duplicate post…sorry…
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Done. Enjoy your chocolate.
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Wait! What?
I thought we were getting chocolates shipped to our house.
Oh horror!
Now I gotta run to the store. Jeez! And we got fresh snow on the road.
Merry Christmas!
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Lol… Merry xmas to you and yours too. On the bucket list to do xmas in the northern hemisphere one year, would be amazing to see it with snow (having never seen snow in my life). And I think the kids would love it too.
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Gently wake them to ‘wave reindeer bye-bye’; then back to bed for SUGARPLUMS!
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The PayPal link does seem to be operating for £GB. It just links you to the PayPal login page without any invitation to add an amount to pay to you.
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Mike, thanks, Fixed (I think). Thanks for letting me know! – Jo
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Why is the fixed £GBP button still presenting in $AUD ?
Does nobody want BRexit Pounds ?
Can’t see what PayPal is going to charge in £GBP for an $AUD.
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Got my pal to send 12 weeks of New Scientist subscription in chocolate. I remember New Scientist from college. It was a sort of aspirational magazine for would be scientists. Now its time for the harder stuff.
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Should have written The PayPal link does not seem to be operating for £GB.
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Merry Xmas Jo and family.
I have been reading your blog since you hosted
James Delingpole in Perth in 2012. Lots of useful information
and some great comments from the regulars.
There’s a couple of “greenies” heading your way to help
with Chrissie etc….
Not like the fake greenies that are trying their hardest
to take us back to cave days.
We must fight their perilous ways as much as we can.
Thank you for all that you are doing.
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Merry Xmas, Jo, David and family. Couple of chocs,*
a small thankee for what you do, big effort,to keep
the airway open, contra iniquitous 18c, for the open society.
bts.
*Memo ter self … ‘Mark calendar, 2018,reminder,ter send on
more regular basis.’
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Joyous all to you Beth! Hug those that are dear to you. Join usns that admit I DO NOT KNOW!, but are willing to join in the WONDER(FUEL) of what may be next, dammit! 🙂
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And Joyous all to you, Will. )
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Some Swiss chocolate on the way. Thanks for everything an please keep up your good work, I enjoy it every day. Merry Christmas and a happy new year to you and your family and friends. Regards from the snowy Swiss mountains, Fred
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A few chocs sent from Pommieland. Paypal working for me. Keep up the good work and have a Merry Christmas.
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Thanks for the good work Jo.
Iv’e been a long time reader and contribute when I can.
I wish you and yours a safe & happy festive season and look forward to reading your posts and other contributors in 2018.
I have trained many students from the power industry, gas & oil and manufacturing in instrumentation & control and always ask them their views on AGW related to CO2 and other issues such as storms, sea levels etc.
I have observed that people with science based training such as engineers, electricians, instrumentation technicians and communications technicians have a good grasp of what causes our weather patterns and climate cycles.
The good news is that almost all think AGW is a con to manipulate markets and people. I take heart in these young people, the silent majority who think most politicians are self serving bastards. I also take heart that they realise that we need to look after our planet in terms of controlling pollution in all its forms and can separate the two issues. These people are the of an age that they will be the shapers of Australia over the next 40 years.
I have also observed that a large number of non-technical people just don’t have a grasp of the science to understand some of the pro/con AGW issues.
So I say to the people of Australia, have faith in our planet, have faith in the young to see a way through to forcing governments to invest in cheap reliable power. It will take some years and sites like this and WUWT are making inroads so be patient and if you can, buy some chocolate:)
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I agree, however I do not think it is the “ordinary non Scientific” people’s fault for not knowing. The chemistry and physics of the atmosphere are a 100 years away from our Scinetists (despite their assurances of correlation) and modellling capabilities.
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Indeed this is the vast political scam foisted on us folk for financial gain by those that remain ignorant of ‘SCIENCE’ but highly skillful in FRAUD! Are you reloading yet?
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Which F word is bad? See # 6.3.1.1.1 to get around the other one! Best wishes to you Joanne!
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Try this: (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/945072378580799488.html) *******Will Janoschka Says:
December 26th, 2017 at 6:41 am
Try this: (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/945072378580799488.html) *******
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Got in ahead of you there Jo and paypal worked fine (I hope?). You are worth so much more than I could afford. Merry Christmas to you and yours.
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Merry Christmas Jo and all the best for 2018!
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Merry Christmas Jo.
Your site is a daily stop for me; I’m sending you 50 units of chocolate.
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The £GB link works, but come up in $AUD, not £GB.
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I just chipped in a few US$ (figured they’d be more useful than CAD) and things worked fine, i.e., the process went smoothly. I really appreciate your efforts and am especially entertained when we get a good dose of the wacky world of Oz politics. It’s almost is as weird as what we have in the US! Anyway, good luck with the fund raising and keep your chin up. Maybe you can get the equivalent of Scott Pruitt somewhere in Canberra. I’m still not tired of winning.
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In this season of giving and mirth,
The best site for skeptics, on Earth,
Against fake climate-change,
Will some chocolates exchange,
Sent to blogger, Jo Nova in Perth.
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I think we need “crowd funding”
Joanne , I will be contributing next Friday. (29th Dec)
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If all else fails wave your arms around and claim to be a wind turbine and ask for the subsidy. Best not wave them too much or people will get suspicious.
A Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
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Good timing.
I was just about to send some cash to the Greens, Michael Mann, George Soros and GetUp and then I saw your post.
So I decided to redirect my donation.
Better luck next year Mikey!!
🙂
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Good idea!
I decided last year that I was inadvertently supporting messages which which I do not agree. The AMA has been particularly irritating because the executive wants to virtue signal about climate change. When they did not respond to my letters of complaint I cancelled my membership (of more than 30 years) and directed the after tax savings to Jo’s chocolate fund.
Likewise I support education, but there was no point in supporting institutions which teach people the wrong thing, so the university and the my faculty have been cut off and the money redirected to the IPA which has a student education program on western democracy, liberalism and freedom of speech.
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If its the version of the AMA i’m thinking of, i recall seeing thier building had a pyramid sculpture out the front with an all-seeing occult eye set in it.
Now assuming that is the case, it also signals control if same organization by the occult globalists
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You have to wonder….if science based medicine gets to this point, its a concern.
https://ama.com.au/media/ama-calls-australian-leadership-address-global-health-impacts-climate-change
“AMA Position Statement on Climate Change and Human Health (Revised 2015)
The AMA today released the updated AMA Position Statement on Climate Change and Human Health (Revised 2015), which was last revised in 2008.
The updated Position Statement takes account of the most recent scientific evidence, and is being released a day after United States President Barack Obama said that “climate change left unchecked would soon trigger global conflict and condemn our children to a planet beyond their capacity to repair”.
AMA President, Professor Brian Owler, said the AMA Position Statement focuses on the health impacts of climate change, and the need for Australia to plan for the major impacts, which includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
“It is the AMA’s view that climate change is a significant worldwide threat to human health that requires urgent action, and that human activity has contributed to climate change,” Professor Owler said.”
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and what a year it has been!
Delingpole at his best:
22 Dec: Breitbart: James Delingpole: Christmas Is Here, Everyone! EPA Officials Are ‘Leaving in Droves’
(5358 comments at time of posting)
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/12/22/delingpole-christmas-is-here-everyone-epa-officials-are-leaving-in-droves/
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Bought some chocolates so can go O/T (off toffee).
Trump’s Whirlwind Year
by Conrad Black
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22 Dec: U.S. tax bill passes, opening ANWR to oil exploration
by Lori Fox
President Donald Trump signed the American Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law Dec. 22, officially opening up the Artic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to oil exploration and drilling.
Pro-drilling lobbyists have been trying to open the 1002 Area of ANWR since the refuge’s unofficial creation in 1960…
1002 Area is thought to contain 10.2 billion barrels of oil, although that number is only an estimate…
Chris Rider, executive director of the Yukon Chapter of the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society, said that the organization fully supports the Vuntut Gwitchin in protecting the caribou…
***Rider also panned Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, “who has said nothing” about the subject so far. Rider said he would like to see Trudeau advocating for the caribou in Washington…
Much of the push to open ANWR to drilling has come from Sen. Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican who voted for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act because of the perceived economic benefits it would provide the state.
“Opening the 1002 Area is the single-most important step we can take to strengthen our long-term security and create new wealth,” Murkowski said in Dec. 20 opinion piece published on her website.
“Given Alaska’s economic struggles, with the highest unemployment of any state and massive budget deficits projected well into the future, the substantial benefits that responsible development will bring cannot arrive soon enough.
“New production from the 1002 Area will help restore throughput to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, our state’s economic backbone.”
Murkowski said she believed the pipeline would bring in $60 billion in royalties for Alaska…
https://www.yukon-news.com/news/u-s-tax-bill-passes-opening-anwr-to-oil-exploration/
22 Dec: Financial Times: Ed Crooks: A year in energy: what we have learnt in 2017
Opec’s influence, bringing back coal and responses to climate change
1. Opec still has clout, when it has friends
The end of Opec’s power has been proclaimed so often that announcing it has become a journalistic genre in its own right, but this year the cartel proved that it can still exert some influence over the oil market, at least for a while. The fact that Brent is hanging on above $60 per barrel, at a time when US shale production is surging and global crude inventories are expected to rise, testifies to Opec’s enduring clout. It has only been able to be this effective in its strategy of production restraint, however, because it has allies, above all Russia…
3. Bringing back coal in the US is easier said than done…
It was a slogan that served several purposes: as an attack to hurl at Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, as a symbol of the kind of economy that Mr Trump wanted to revive, and as a direct vote-winner in the coal-producing states of Pennsylvania and Ohio. Mrs Clinton’s remarkably maladroit presentation of her policies for coal regions, appearing at one point to be eager to put miners out of work, was also a gift to Mr Trump’s campaign. He told a simple story about how Mr Obama was waging a “war on coal” with his policies to address the threat of climate change, and once the deathly grip of Washington was broken, the mines would come roaring back to life. As the past year has proved, that story was mostly a fairytale
…
The Clean Power Plan, the main set of regulations that Mr Obama proposed for addressing climate change, had not yet come into effect, having been stalled by the Supreme Court. Scrapping those regulations, as the Trump administration intends, may slow the decline of coal-fired power in the US, but cannot bring back the jobs that have been lost. The US coal industry has picked up this year, but that has been the result of the rebound in China’s consumption and a rise in US gas prices making coal-fired power somewhat more competitive again.
..
US coal production this year will be about 9 per cent higher than last year…
4 …But getting off coal in China is tricky, too
As China’s coal consumption rebounded earlier this year, after three consecutive years of decline, cynics were quick to argue that it showed that the government’s professed commitment to curbing local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions was mostly a sham. In the past few months China’s government has given the lie to that criticism, making a determined attempt to shift homes in some of its most polluted regions away from coal and towards gas for heating. The difficulties that have been thrown up by this initiative, however, have been a reminder of just how dependent China is on coal, and how great an effort is required to break that dependence. There have been shortages of gas for industry and reports of people freezing in their homes. Some of the restrictions on coal use had to be relaxed…
Meanwhile, another trend to watch is surging coal demand in Southeast Asia…
—
Finally, I thought readers would be interested to see some of the most-clicked stories in Energy Source this year. Our most popular link was to the presentation by Michael Liebreich of Bloomberg New Energy Finance…
(pat – FAKE QUOTE FOR FAKENEWS CNN HAILED BY CAGW-INFESTED FT)
Quote of the year
“We are planning to be leaving totally the dependency [on oil] that we have been living for the last 40, 50 years. Hopefully by even 2030, I wouldn’t care if the oil price is zero.” — Talking to CNN, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, finance minister of Saudi Arabia, set an ambitious goal for the country’s economic reform programme.
https://www.ft.com/content/78879f08-e737-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da
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Not too much left in spare cash, after this old pensioner paid the electricity bill, but enough put some ham on the Christmas table, with all those chocolates.
Keep up the good work, you brighten my day.
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Why not cash in some of the global cooling hedge fund shares you and David were flogging last year ?
A merry Christmas in any event.
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You don’t know much about futures markets do you.
But I see Christmas brings out your best side. Thanks for your generous wishes.
Good luck with your solar farm investments. :- )
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Grinn!
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Seasons greeting from Canada, only -18 C tonight. FYI your link to Canada PayPal did not seem to work. I got it done by searching your e mail though.
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CRU, Uni of East Anglia: Professor Keith Briffa
We are deeply saddened by the death of Emeritus Professor Keith Briffa, who died peacefully on Sunday 29 October 2017…
presuming the writer is Prof Tim Atkinson, UCL. Guardian doesn’t say and there’s no link for Keith Briffa’s final paper:
21 Dec: Guardian: Tim Atkinson: Keith Briffa obituary
My friend and colleague, Keith Briffa, who has died aged 64, was a climate scientist whose influential work helped drive the international acceptance of global warming as being due to human agency.
His scientific investigations ranged widely but his most influential and sustained contributions lay in decoding the complex climatic signals encrypted by annual tree rings and thereby positioning the science of dendro-climatology on rigorously tested foundations.
His methods were adopted by researchers worldwide ETC…
Collective international efforts in which Keith played a leading role eventually enabled the average temperature of the Earth to be estimated on an annual basis over the past 1,000 years. This showed that modern global warming has exceeded any of the natural variations in that time.
Tree rings alone could not pinpoint the cause but they proved conclusively that something new was afoot, and confirmed the wealth of other evidence that was presented to governments via the five-yearly assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Keith made important contributions to four of these including the 2007 assessment that was followed by the collective award of the Nobel peace prize to the IPCC scientists…
In 2009 he was struck by the first of several bouts of cancer. An optimist, he was determined to keep on living and working with the aid of his doctors, which he did for nearly a decade. The last of his 130 scientific papers was published a few months ago…
—-
presuming again that this was the final paper:
29 May: Nature Geoscience: Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years
Authors: Jianglin Wang, Bao Yang, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Jürg Luterbacher, Timothy J. Osborn, Keith R. Briffa & Eduardo Zorita
Abstract:
The North Atlantic experiences climate variability on multidecadal scales, which is sometimes referred to as Atlantic multidecadal variability. However, the relative contributions of external forcing such as changes in solar irradiance or volcanic activity and internal dynamics to these variations are unclear. Here we provide evidence for persistent summer Atlantic multidecadal variability from AD 800 to 2010 using a network of annually resolved terrestrial proxy records from the circum-North Atlantic region. We find that large volcanic eruptions and solar irradiance minima induce cool phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability and collectively explain about 30% of the variance in the reconstruction on timescales greater than 30 years. We are then able to isolate the internally generated component of Atlantic multidecadal variability, which we define as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. We find that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is the largest contributor to Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past 1,200 years. We also identify coherence between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations, leading us to conclude that the apparent link between Atlantic multidecadal variability and regional to hemispheric climate does not arise solely from a common response to external drivers, and may instead reflect dynamic processes.
http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2962?WT.feed_name=subjects_earth-and-environmental-sciences
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pat:
I am sorry to read about Briffa dying. He was one of the few AGW supporters with any integrity as shown in the Climategate papers. Eventually he was bullied into toeing the line, but his public statements were careful. The very antithesis of Michael Mann.
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22 Dec: Daily Mail: Global temperatures could drop next year as ash clouds from volcanic eruptions help cool the atmosphere, claims the Met Office
Volcanic eruptions could bring down global temperatures, the Met Office says
Forecasters have said that 2018 will be cooler than 2017 due to the La Nina event
La Nina means cooler than average sea temperatures present in the south Pacific
Volcanoes could bring this temperature down further due to the ash they emit
by Colin Fernandez
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5202433/La-Nina-looks-reduce-global-temperature-2018.html
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22 Dec: Stars & Stripes: Pentagon official predicts ‘screaming and yelling’ as DOD restructures
By DAN LAMOTHE, The Washington Post
The Obama administration also stressed climate change in other Pentagon documents, but there will be no mention of it in the new National Defense Strategy, (Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan) said. That falls in line with Trump’s National Security Strategy, which also avoided mentioning climate change as a security threat…
Asked whether the Defense Department still believes climate change is a threat, Shanahan said that he thinks “we address it in the strategy,” but that the document concentrates “on certain themes that are priorities to the building.”
“There are only so many priorities you can have, and there are many, many priorities to the department, but we had to distill them into the critical few,” he said. “So, it doesn’t mean that it’s not a priority, or it is a priority. What it says is that in the National Defense Strategy, we don’t address it.”…
https://www.stripes.com/news/us/pentagon-official-predicts-screaming-and-yelling-as-dod-restructures-1.503602
no reliable data, no trading, but it makes sense to Greenpeace, and leaves little doubt “environmental protection goals are taking higher and higher priority in government policy”!
21 Dec: Greenpeace Unearthed: Analysis: will China’s new carbon market work?
China has announced the start of the world’s largest emissions trading system. So why hasn’t trading started? Can the market avoid a price crash? And will it actually cut emissions?
by Lauri Myllyvirta and Li Shuo
On Tuesday, China released its long-awaited plan for the world’s largest carbon market…
So will China’s carbon market actually work?
Why hasn’t trading started already?
Although the government has announced the start of the new system, real trading (that is, with money changing hands) is unlikely to begin before 2020.
In the meantime, the key elements of a functional carbon market will be established: emissions monitoring, permit exchanges and then simulated trials…
Why is the system limited to one sector?
Although the system will cover the entire nation, for now, it will only be run in the power sector…
But the earliest that sectors could be added is 2021 and there is currently no timeline or clear criteria for their inclusion in the plan.
In part, this makes sense. Data quality is better than the power industry than elsewhere as a power plant needs to sell power to the state grid or to a large industrial customer.
But this is not the reason given in the plan. It states that other industries have been left out so as to avoid “affecting the stable and healthy economic development”…
As with many other sectors of China’s economy, government orders are playing a much larger role than market measures at least in the short term, but there can be little doubt that environmental protection goals are taking higher and higher priority in government policy.
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2017/12/21/china-carbon-market-analysis-emissions/
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Excellent blog that me and the old man are happy to send a contribution. Always in awe of all the learned discussion and stunningly good poetry, which help to make me feel better about the world in general. If you lot exist, there is hope!
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Sent you that ridiculous photo of the sea level rise graph on Lady Elliot Island some years ago which you published on your website. Unfortunately the only engineer we had in Federal Politics with any real science knowledge, Malcolm Roberts, was another casualty of our chaotic citizenship laws and other climate realists in the government are too chicken to rock the boat.
Have sent you “a month of bandwidth” Jo to keep up the good fight and put pressure on our science establishments to publish real science instead of political propaganda. Merry Christmas to you and David and all believers in true science.
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My mistake Jo, I sent that photo to Jennifer Marohasy’s blog, not yours. It is worth looking at in Jennifer’s February 2014 blog archives as an example of poor government science propaganda.
Thanks for the help with the bandwidth charges. Is this the right blog post on Jennifer’s site?. — Jo
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Yes Jo, that’s the one. Pure government propaganda!
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Merry Christmas to you, Dave and the rest of your family. Every year brings us one year closer to the demise of the CAGW scam. Your blog helps reduce the number of years to that glorious event.
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Done – choccys on the way. Many thanks for hosting this site over the years, and may I wish you and David a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
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Thank you for continuing to do what you’ve always done so well! $100 US to you.
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I’ve sent 20 nz lira cos you upset all the right people.
Forward real science!
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Love your stamina and determination in keeping this quality website going, Jo.
My donation on its way.
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As with previous chocolate purchases – this is in lieu of my lapsed New Scientist subscription which I gave up years ago due to political bias. Much better value over here – thanks for my daily injection of hope and sanity.
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Thank you so much James. What a great way to look at it.
Thank you to everyone here.
It is such to buzz to see so many people sending some support. I never assume these calls for help will produce the same response they got last time.
Sometimes it’s the only time I get a message from a reader. There’s a lot of energy in seeing endorsements coming in. Thank you.
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Thanks for your great blog. 100 chocolates are a true bargain to see in the next year.
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Jo I have been selfishly reading your blogs for quite some time & although the task for you must at times seem very tiring I do hope you & the very few other sensible blogs can continue.
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I wish I could help Jo, but as a carer things are rather tight.
I hope others can ensure you keep up the trojan work… 😀
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Sadly while our mad government wants to spend 5+billion dollars pumping water up a mountain to save the world from our evil emissions of CO2 someone who fights to save us all from the much greater threat of de-civilisation has to struggle to make ends meet. Well I’ve sent a few quid your way Jo, I would say don’t spend it all at once but with the way the cost of living keeps going up it is near impossible to keep the Aussie peso in ones hand for long these days.
So at the end of 2017 how does the scorecard look? I would say that the scientific argument has pretty much been over for more than 10 years unfortunately we have a generation of “science” academics that are reliant on those lovely research dollars that ignorant politicians are too willing to hand out. On the political and social side I would say we have gone backwards this year. While most people keep telling opinion surveys that they want more renewable energy and at the same time lower power prices then the great con will go on. Maybe 2018 will be the year the penny drops with the public
As Clive James wrote in his contribution to Climate Change the Facts 2017 the global warming edifice will not fall over like a house of cards simply due the number of people in positions of power who have a vested interest in keeping it going and will not allow it end. It took decades for it to get to what it has become and it will take decades to pull it down, brick by brick. Sorry if I seem a bit too glass half empty by that’s my way.
The good news is that we have many, many years of reading Jo Nova’s wonderful blog to look forward to, money permitting. This year she has made me laugh, cry, gnash my teeth, pull my hair out and then laugh some more. I mean who doesn’t like laughing at the exploits of fools when they have been found out?
Merry Christmas and Happy New year to Jo, David and kids. To the almost invisible moderators, to the regular contributors and the irregular commenters like me. I may not comment as often as others but I read every post Jo puts up.
Cheers all.
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A big thank you to Jo and David for all the wonderful work they do, day-in and day-out, to further the cause of science and reason.
Merry Christmas and A Happy New Year to you and your family!
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In early January, some Mangoes coming from QLD!
Been too hot for Chocolate!
Merry Xmas to you and David, plus all the great readers here
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Always happy to give to a worthy cause. Keep up the good work.
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What is that 2nd-last Paypal button… You take donations in Russian rubles?
And now when I refresh the cached page from yesterday… the rubles button is gone today.
My oh my, tongues will be wagging when MSNBC hears about this. 😉
Colluding with un-named Russians to … save western civilisation from commies… well I didn’t say it would make sense. Maybe it depends on what donors are asking for in exchange for “chocolate”.
But the Russian connection seems to have been nipped in the bud, no more eastern bloc choc blocks.
Now for the customary Christmas wishes.
May your pudding today be fruitier than your theories.
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contrast this:
24 Dec: SBS: AAP: Mild Christmas forecast for Australia
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting mainly mild and sunny conditions across the country on Monday, although parts of Queensland and NSW could be hit by late showers or thunderstorms.
“Generally across the country it’s going to be a beautiful day … one of the most stable and quietest weather days we’ve seen for most parts of the country,” meteorologist Dean Narramore said…
with the following:
ABC’s god, BoM, gets about 16 paras before the Christmas messages kick in:
25 Dec: ABC: Parts of Australia sizzle on Christmas, Church leaders reflect and tweet
As people in some parts of Australia celebrate Christmas in sizzling heat, the nation’s Church leaders have offered messages of hope, love and generosity…
A top of 34C is expected in Brisbane, compared to 32C on the Sunshine Coast and 31C on the Gold Coast.
“It looks like it’ll probably be pretty close to the warmest day for December this year across the south-east,” Bureau of Meteorology forecaster James Thompson said, adding that Birdsville is likely to hit 45C…
Sydney’s observatory hill reached 37.7C just after 2:00pm on Sunday but it was well shy of Penrith’s 42.1C.
Penrith came close to breaking a record set just 10 days ago when it reached 43.5C…
Religious leaders offer Christmas messages…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-25/christmas-weather-church-leaders-reflect-and-tweet/9285014
BoM gets first 8 or so paras, before the prawn story kicks in:
25 Dec Updated 54 minutes ago: ABC: Prawns sell out in hours as Queenslanders prepare for sweltering Christmas
By Lucy Murray
Buyers who lined up from 3:00am for prawns on the Gold Coast will be glad they did with trawlers selling out by 7:30am, as Queenslanders prepare for temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius above average for Christmas Day…
The Bureau of Meteorology will have staff working around the clock on Christmas Day, keeping an eye on storms.
Senior forecaster Diana Eadie said even along the coast, temperatures were expected to be about three degrees above average…
“In terms of temperatures, we’re forecasting widespread temperatures around five to 10 above average, particularly through the southern interior,” she said…
Birdsville is expected to be the hottest in the state, predicted to hit 46C.
Severe storms are likely to begin rolling across the south-east corner of the state by late afternoon.
“At this stage there is a risk of severe thunderstorms particularly over the south-eastern parts of the Darling Downs, around the Granite Belt and the Southern Border Ranges as well,” she said.
“We couldn’t rule out some of those severe thunderstorms impacting some of the metro areas so there is a possibility we could see severe storms around the Gold Coast area, not as likely around Brisbane itself but there’s still a chance further inland.”
Buyers miss out on prawns despite lining up at 5:00am…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-24/prawns-sell-out-as-queenslanders-brace-for-sweltering-christmas/9284694
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In the Miid-US, f**king-cold forecast for the next 10 days. Merry Chistmas, all!
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Thank you Jo. I read your blog often and it helps me stay sane,
A small contribution sent your way.
Merry Christmas.
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$50 US on its way. Merry, Merry!
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How do you stay so thin & trim, what with all the chocolate?
Must be the energy burned keeping us informed & civil….thanx
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Hello Jo,
My humble donation was sent to you.
Will try to give more later next year.
Merry Xmas!
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26 Dec: Australian: AAP: PM disappoints public on climate change
An annual survey has found most Australians agree human activity is causing climate change, but less than one in five think Malcolm Turnbull is doing a good job tackling the problem globally.
Fairfax Media reports the annual Ipsos poll on public opinion towards climate change shows eight in 10 agree humans are contributing to climate change, with one in two saying it has already caused more extreme weather and damage to the Great Barrier Reef.
Only 18 per cent of respondents through the prime minister was effective in tackling it globally, and 41 per cent thought it was the federal government’s role to be responsible for action on climate change…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/pm-disappoints-public-on-climate-change/news-story/5e5515ee18924a89515fefe924a42c2b
ultimate CAGW insider Porritt given free rein on the Beeb.
7mins – 19mins39secs – BBC lists 2017 extreme weather events, sound grabs…then adds, as usual, no single weather event can definitively be attributed to changes in the climate. even so blah blah.
Porritt not pessimistic about China, because the political system of China is far more focused on this issue than most other big industrialised economies.
BBC: are they still building new coal-fired power plants?
Porritt: not so much. nothing like so much. and what we never hear about on the news is how they are closing down coal-fired power plants blah blah. only India causing great concern.
BBC: is there any evidence people in rich countries are willing to chage their lifestyles?
Porritt: there is evidence that a significant percentage of people in every OECD country that is very mindful of personal responsibility in this area. what we are seeing in the surveys, the polling data, is that people are getting very confused when they don’t think their governments are taking a lead on it.
Porritt goes on to say emissions from flying not so significant as emissions from meat consumption, 2% vs 6%.
followed by Irwin Stelzer who is disappointed & concerned about Trump withdrawing from Paris, cutting back on research for renewable energy. US has to decarbonise the economy. very, very, very difficult problem. polls show 60-65 percent of Americans think US should do something about climate change. weather events, whether or not they are related to climate change, stimulate that thought. ENDS 21min06secs.
AUDIO: 26mins29secs: 26 Dec: BBC: Review of the Year – 2017
A burst of optimism among many investors and consumers saw healthy growth in the US economy. Why have American share prices jumped by a quarter over the past year? ***New Delhi introduced emergency measures to combat air pollution; the US announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and French President Macron warned greater action is needed to stop dangerous climate change.
As global carbon emissions start to rise again, will the world act?…
Martin Webber is joined by Irwin Stelzer from the Hudson Institute, Jonathon Porritt of Forum for the Future…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172vsczcgpnbhl
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Irwin Stelzer sounded absurdly alarmist, given the Hudson Institute has long been attacked as a “denial” group!
Secretive donors gave US climate denial groups $125m over three years
The Guardian-9 Jun. 2015
“The conservative thinktanks are really the spearhead of the conservative assault on climate change,” said Riley Dunlap, a sociologist at Oklahoma State …. The Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank whose climate expert opposes cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, took in $7.9m over three years.
recently, Stelzer was singing a far more nuanced tune (albeit he still came out in favour of a carbon tax & reducing CO2 emissions):
8 Sept: Hudson Institute: The Road from Paris Might Lead to Lower Emissions
by Irwin M. Stelzer
Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement has produced severe withdrawal symptoms at the New York Times and in environmentalists’ headquarters, or at least in some of them. It will hasten the day when we suffer from droughts, floods, pestilence, storms, and whatever weather phenomenon frightens you most. So say many of the president’s critics at home and abroad…
Both the The New York Times’ conclusions about the U.S. pullout and apocalypse-soon theory being recycled by Al Gore are, to put it mildly, more likely wrong than right. For one thing, the Paris agreement, even if implemented in full, would not have reduced emissions sufficiently to achieve the goal some scientists say is essential to prevent irreversible warming. For another, as discussed below, the agreement lacks any enforcement mechanism of consequence. If there is a Holy Grail that might cool the planet, it is not to be found in Paris…
The intensity of the battle of Paris belies its importance, both to those who fear the earth is warming, and to those who fear that climate change is a hoax, designed to extend the reach of progressive government and shackle the economy with growth-inhibiting regulations. Best in these fraught times to turn to Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan think tank that over many years I have found to be the most reliable source of what in these days might be called “real news,” or in earlier times solid research. Mark Hafstead, an economist at RFF, earned his doctorate at Stanford and B.A. in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences and Economics at Northwestern. His cool appraisal: “Environmental policies are generally going to create winners and losers, with some industries negatively affected, while others will gain. The magnitude of the kinds of gains or losses tend to be overstated by both sides.”
Although many Trump opponents have a knee-jerk tendency to dismiss anything he does as disastrous, in this case the president is actually serving their interests—even if he didn’t intend to. Like all policies, Trump’s policy on Paris will likely have unintended consequences, and these consequences will be quite the opposite of a weakening of the attack on emissions that his critics are predicting.
After all, the Paris Agreement is unenforceable, in part because President Barack Obama dared not submit it to the Senate for ratification as a treaty; in part because there is no mechanism other than “name and shame” to assure compliance and some of the nations that signed are not notable for possessing large dollops of shame); and in part because signatories are free to amend their compliance plans whenever they find those plans inconvenient. Which some will at some point, deciding that it is better to provide today’s voters and subjects with higher incomes than future generations with cooler breezes…
https://www.hudson.org/research/13878-the-road-from-paris-might-lead-to-lower-emissions
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should have added the Stelzer/Hudson Inst article is very, very, very long.
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Sent 50 chokkies before Xmas, found I had 50 chokkies left after Xmas.Slight sugar problem!
They’re all yours Jo and David.
You guys are fantastic. Cheers
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Jo, you are an amazing and inspirational Australian. Along with a small handful of others you are the battling remnant of Australia’s once-proud ‘fourth estate’. I often cite you and your contributors in my (frequent) submissions to newspaper opinion pages in my region, as part of my ongoing efforts to alert my fellow Australians to the extent of the climate scam. (An activity I call “relaxivism”.)
Our residual ‘first estate’ (clergy) have now either been smeared in witch-hunt trials-by-media (see Christianity, esp. Catholicism) or held above any mention whatsoever in the common narrative (see 1slam!c !mams).
Our remnant ‘second estate’ (nobility) have been torn down for use as entertainment fodder in the bread-and-circus industry. In a practical sense they’ve been completely supplanted by the secretive high-wealth elitist global-socialists who meet once a year in Davos to set out the world agenda for the next twelve months.
We humble ‘third estate’ proletariat are considered a harvestable commodity – indeed, many of us behave as ‘sheeple’ and seem to beg to be fleeced. We’ve been stripped of all means to defend ourselves from the depredations of the elites, which is quite intentionally designed to suppress dissent.
The former ‘fourth estate’, the one you represent the last gasp of, has been supplanted by young pseudo-journos who see themselves as de facto members of the elite, empowered with the specific role of shaping the narrative to ensure we proles conform properly with our Great Leaders’ wishes. Most of them would fit right in in George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-four, busily re-writing history to ensure everyone subscribes to proper newthink.
Many pseudo-journos are now simply paid enablers for the entrenched establishment. They are worthy only of Uncle Rupert’s “content provider” label. Many are beneath contempt. Some move on to become political advisers, at which point they lose all touch with reality and see themselves as thought-controllers to the useful 1djots the elites permit to stand for preselection in our major parties to ‘represent’ the sheep-proles.
Channel Nein ran a wrap-up of 2017 news this morning. They reported 14 people died in Cyclone Debbie! Talk about fake news! Darwin’s Law might’ve taken out some numpt!es in floodwater but theirs weren’t ‘cyclone deaths’. Then they talked about the “devastation” from Hurricane Harvey without mentioning that Houston was back to business-as-usual a week later. Plus they didn’t mention the eleven-year major-hurricane hiatus that defied all the catastrophists’ direst predictions…
Nein also banged on about “record temperatures” in Victoria, SA and NSW without once using the words “summer” or “seasonal” and always leaving the implication that it was frightening and unusual. Only the most committed l3ftard or terminal non-thinker would fail to mutter in disgust at such blatant and reprehensible politically-motivated manipulation of a simple weather forecast.
Do the ‘thought-leaders’ at our major media outlets truly see us as so stvp!d, so devoid of personal memories and so lacking of old-fashioned books that aren’t subject to change-without-notice that they can just superimpose any old nonsense over reality and expect us to accept it without complaint? I guess they do…
Apologies for ranting. I mainly want to sincerely thank you for your fantastic efforts and note that I’m anxious to see your marvellous work continue. Contributions to your support are effectively investments in hope for a saner future for our beautiful country. A month of bandwidth is in your jar via direct deposit. Thank you, Jo.
Peter Campion
FNQ
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Haven’t read all the comments but suggest you get a Patreon button.
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Yes, possibly. Is there a catch?
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“Is there a catch?”
Yes. Patreon will censor (throw you out) when they feel like it (and so will Paypal and GoFundme). The standard of reference is Bay Area California.
I would suggest investigating alternatives that explicitly rule that out.
I’ve heard mention of MakerSupport. There may be others.
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A little help from someone who believes Bitcoins and Klimate ‘Science’ are believed by the same sort of gullible suckers.
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