JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Anyone see the latest rubbish about the poley bears dying because of climate change?
Delingpole points out the truth: http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/12/11/delingpole-ugly-truth-dying-polar-bear/
102
Yes, it got walloped on NotALotofPeopleKnowThat.
Obviously a big ferocious carnivore is just the pet greenies want. Much like those emotionally inadequate low life types who keep pit bulls to give them an image.
112
I think that every Global WarmingTM subscriber, should be given a Polar Bear to take home, for a few months holiday.
That would keep the bears well fed, and would be a boon for all the other branches of science that are short on funds.
It would also address the constant need for more housing, and better infrastructure, in the suburbs.
You know it makes sense.
162
Ursus Marinarus requires temperatures below freezing to be comfortable.
Therefore it would be preferable for the Greenly challenged to adopt them in their own environment North of the Arctic Circle.
Just imagine the jobs that would create in encouraging tourism in Nunavut!
This could green a virtual green utopia in the Hinterland!
91
What a brilliant suggestion. I wish I had thought of that.
Give me to next week, and I will probably think I had.
81
The semi-silent Whistler.
40
The thing about the big ferocious poley bear is that it is the apex of the food chain, ie there are no predators to take out the old and frail as there are zebra and wildebeast so occasionally one will see a slow death in plain sight. But die they will.
00
Say what? Are there no Aged Pension and old folks homes for the Poley Bears?
Surely the Greenies could go up to the Pole and provide some polar bear superannuation?
00
What everybody got wrong about that viral video of a starving polar bear
60
Delingpole continuing that Breitbart headline
“Fight truth decay”
110
Sacred animals don’t die of natural causes, didn’t you know?.
Forty odd years ago we convicted a mother of murdering her baby because some Pommy scientist believed that sacred dogs don’t bite. She was gaoled and had her new baby taken from her, serving several years before decent people were able to convince the authorities that sacred dogs might indeed bite and eat a baby, bones and all.
The stuff that the scientist swore was baby’s blood turned out to be glue.
30
I still can’t get one of the Arctic sea ice bed-wetters to explain how polar bears survived the first 7000-8000 years of the Holocene, when sea ice levels were MUCH lower than they are currently (often summer ice free).
They just RUN and HIDE !! 🙂
84
There is the problem of the previous 3 or more interglacials over the last half million years when global temperatures (from ice cores) were much higher than now. Surely 2 or 3℃ of warming would have melted all that arctic floating ice as well as a lot more. The Eemian period (roughly 125,000 years ago) was 2.5℃ warmer than now, and had sea levels about 6 metres higher than now.
Somehow the polar bears survived.
60
Somehow the corals, did too.
40
Does one of my red thumb admirers has an answer..
…. or will you remain, as always DUMB as a fence post !!
Even the termites have more intelligence that you twerps 🙂
31
They are typical Labor/Green voters no scientific knowledge and very little understanding of real world issues if they could have dropped out in grade 6 they would have.
10
Jo has it backwards, the red is the 10s column
00
According to Christopher Talbot from AAP in The Australian today reporting the BoM:
The hottest December temperature recorded at the Mildura Post Office was 49.4C on Dec. 31, 1904.
The hottest December day in Melbourne was 43.7C on Dec. 15, 1876.
210
The latest BoM slogan “would you like fries with that”.
130
… two eggs, easy over …please.
80
and a moist towlette…..
50
I remember as a kid in Melbourne going to back to school after Christmas and having to suffer 100+F (37C) days for weeks on end. No air conditioning, walk to school and walk back home. No home air conditioning, swimming pool, just a sprinkler to keep cool. Somehow we all managed to survive until the next heat wave and the next century.
242
Seems to me that part of the reason that the younger generation living in cities are such suckers for the ‘extreme’ weather story is that they spend most of their lives in temperature controlled/air-conditioned spaces and anything beyond that narrow zone is a shock.
210
On the 14 Oct 1968, not exactly the middle of summer, I drove a Formula 1 Brabham Repco in the Mallala [Adelaide] round of the Australian Gold star, our formula 1 championship at the time.
After the race I had to replace my visor. It was too stained by melting bitumen thrown up by cars in front of me, we could not get it clean enough to see through adequately again. The track became very slippery with so much melting in the heat.
I believe it hit 40 C at the track that day. Whenever a northerly blows out of the red centre, those southern areas get the hot desert air, just as the east coast does in a north west or westerly.
100
Prior to my semi-retirement, I had to travel to Adelaide fairly regularly. Arriving from a balmy Melbourne 30C Summer’s day into Adelaide’s 40+C oven was always an interesting experience.
90
The Rio tennis championship rubbers in Adelaide had the start time delayed to about 8:00 pm on several occasions.
Daytime tennis was to unsafe – due to the heat (1970s – before global warming!!!!).
60
Did you flying into the old terminal? The walk across the tarmac to the building was always a great welcome to Adelaide on a hot day, or a cold day for that matter!
40
Yeah, Phil, KB was just too good that year. Still, finishing second for the Season to him is pretty good. I was at the Surfers race during Speed Week there that year.
Nice race car that BT23A/1.
Tony.
60
Yes Tony, & that yellow thing with the Alfa motor wasn’t a bad bit of gear either.
30
What we really miss of the old days is such things as Repco’s ability to build a formula one championship motor. How many young Australians know that Jack Brabham won the formula one championship with an Australian built car using an Australian built motor?
Repco did a lot more than that for us, too. If you had a unique motor for which parts were unobtainable, Repco would make pistons and rings to order for a modest charge.
Then Hawke with his Oxford education took over the ACTU and the ACTU spent the whole of the 1970s not only preventing firms from innovating, but shutting down manufacturing generally, and small business manufacturing in particular.
91
Well rhodes scholars seem to specialize in promoting a global govt ( a lesser know tidbit about Rhodes the man ) , which means creating dependency and remove independence…thats what they are all about. Removing manufacturing ability means losing skills, which creates dependency.
Victoria and the take over of the CFA by the unions under Comrade Commisar Andrews reeks of the same thing – putting a control mechanism in place and reaching up the communities’ collective rear end with a compontent of Andrews Collective.
My self-made very wealthy rural great-aunt who is as sharp as a razor, and very right wing and community focussed, has nothing good to say about Andrews, but is astute about the man. In fact, if Andrews pushes too much farther, I think victorians will literally riot.
Turnbull is a rhodes scholar, as is beasley and Bill Clinton.
50
OS,
Rhodes Scholar Charles Copeman was opponent of hard left, becoming known for strike breakng at Robe River iron mine, helping to set up the H R Nicholls Society, the New Right movement and being a model Director for whom I worked. He did not have high regard for Bob Hawke. In terms of putting money where his mouth was, one of the best.
Re motor racing, Bathurst 1964, with another work boss who showed off his newly imported Studebaker Avanti was memorable. That year was near the start here for motor bikes like the Hondas, high revs, 4 valves per cylinder eating up the simpler thumpers. Geoff.
20
Seen it all before, including a 40C day that toasted the newly opened leaves on deciduous trees and left them scarred for the rest of the summer. When people in shops mention this forecast heat I ask them ‘Isn’t that usual for this part of the world at this time of the year?’ They generally concede that is the case when asked to think about it.
180
‘They generally concede that is the case when asked to think about it.’
At that point, sensing victory was in my grasp, I would probably say there is a lot of talk about a mini ice age returning.
If that gets no traction then you can safely assume they have all swallowed the green pill.
110
I can’t remember now what I said after that but it’s usually something a bit sarky about the endless hyping about the forecast.
50
They probably said nothing about the media beatup, the idea smacks of conspiracy theory and only a crazy person would denigrate the ABC or BoM.
40
I hope someone from the emergency services is ready this post – gents, the more you follow your political masters and issue extreme warnings for normal weather events ( most recently the melbourne big wet debacle…), you lose credibility. This is a pity as the rank and file of the ememergy services are good solid people.
Re-think your approach – you may be ignored in future and people could die due to crying wolf too often….
50
Its an insurance problem, hailstones in Sydney, Brisbane floods, Sydney to Hobart race, BoM has been burnt and so, erring on the side of caution, they raise the red flag.
00
The 1876-77 El Nino was ferocious, producing mass famine in China, and the 1904 cooling was a Gleissberg cycle.
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Hottest in the unhomegenised record does not count.
Unhomeginised temperature readings are not considered reliable data. Only climate models produce reliable data and temperature readings are then homogenised to match the data.
You should be careful not to confuse readings with climate data. You run the risk of confusing the general populace who need to be constantly reminded that CO2 is destroying the planet.
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“Victoria is set to fry”
Despite CO2 rising sharply by nearly 50% since 1935, global temperatures have changed minimally or not at all since then.
Despite their bs hockey stick deception.
So stop the effin worrying.
Here’s the 1999 NASA data and in fact it’s Hansen’s own graphic of US temperatures: https://i2.wp.com/www.bibliotecapleyades.net/imagenes_ciencia2/globalwarming158_03.jpg
The above graphic shows that in 1999 NASA data showed that .. it was hotter in the US in the 1930s than 1999!
But since 1999 they have manipulated away the fact that the US was hotter in the 1930s. But that reality remains. In fact the
scientistsleftist loons have manipulated away spot after spot on the globe that was hotter in the 1930s than now.And the US had the most extensive and reliable set of thermometers back then, with very sparse data being available from most of the world. Chances are that in actuality the rest of the world reflected the US temperatures (rather than the manipulated and sparse global data for the ’30s that we have now). Global warming in bunk.
60
…. and global cooing is back.
Found this interesting graph which illustrates that El Nino has an impact on CO2 in the atmosphere.
https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/cl/files/2017/03/Fig.2.jpg
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… when doves cry.
20
Hmmm ….
00
I left essentially the same comment at WUWT and someone started of an excellent reply to my comment with:
I replied:
That’s a heck of a good question, and that’s been a VERY inconvenient truth for NASA and the Chicken Littles.
Hence, lately they’ve manipulated the h*ll out of the US temperature data. And they did that to the rest of the world to boot. Yes, globally, the 1930s were hotter or at best essentially the same as today. That despite a near 50% increase in CO2 since the ’30s which should have taken us half way to the “we’re all going to fry” doomsday. But no, there’s been no appreciable change .. at all. If anything it’s better now than the ’30s. There’s been no hockey stick. And without their adjustments and disappearing stations and the urban heat effect you can be sure the global trend since the ’30s would be nearly flat or even downward. Global warming er “climate change” is a joke. The people got to know!
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At WUWT I also added this point:
And another major bit of evidence that doesn’t jive with the notion of the hockey stick or of any warming in the 20th century is this:
For 6 out 7 continents the record for the hottest days were set before the record for the coldest day: http://www.space.com/17816-earth-temperature.html
Here’s the records:
Years Hottest & Coldest Day Record Were Set:
Europe : : Hot 1977 … Cold 1978
Africa : : Hot 1931 … Cold 1935
Asia : : Hot 1942 … Cold 1933
Australia : : Hot 1960 … Cold 1974
South America : : Hot 1905 … Cold 1907
North America : : Hot 1913 … Cold 1947
Antarctica : : Hot 1974 … Cold 1983
Plus for good measure:
The World : : Hot 1913 Cold 1983
With runaway warming every continent should have had their hot record set very recently, with their cold records a distant distant memory. But no, and it’s essentially … the opposite. The data above strongly suggests a cooling world, not a hockey stick world. And the records for the hottest and coldest days is the one thing that they can’t manipulate.
20
Electricity tariffs in Victoria are set to increase by a whopping 15% from January 2, 2018. This little NY present came to me via an Energy Australia (who is my retailer) email and a rather convoluted link to a webpage which shows that AusNet are increasing their wholesale prices 15% to all retailers. The new rates apply to both peak and offpeak tariffs.
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G’day O,
Here’s another bit of unexpected insight into costs. Not new to regular readers here, but I suspect unfamiliar to readers of its source:
” Investors in renewable energy were dependent on the “large generator credits” (LGC) guaranteed under the clean energy target to make projects stack up financially. ”
And the source (which is behind a semi-permiable paywall):
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/gpt-pulls-back-from-solar-push-amid-policy-uncertainty-20171212-p4yxmk.html?btis
Cheers,
Dave B
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Brought to you courtesy of the Turncoat and Frydenberg, and of course all of the foreign billionares collecting the booty by selling LGC certificates.
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Turncoat still leads “Prat of the Year”
70
My question to the broader community is simply this – at what stage are people going to tell the govt enough is enough re:power prices?
The French go bolshie on their govt regularly, keeps thing sin check.
Australians seem to be either supremely hardy, or supremely dumb…..
80
Merkel gaining ground again, followed by Clinton.
00
Part One:
13 Dec: California and Washington state join carbon pledge in defiance of Trump
by Reuters Staff: Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg
PARIS (Reuters) – California and Washington state joined five nations on the Pacific coast of the Americas on Tuesday to agree to step up the use of a price on carbon dioxide emissions as a central economic policy to slow climate change.
The U.S. states were acting in defiance of President Donald Trump who says he doubts that man-made greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels are the prime cause of global warming and plans to quit the 2015 Paris climate accord.
Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Colombia and Chile agreed the measure at a climate summit in Paris along with the two U.S. states and provinces across Canada of British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia…
They said they would also work to strengthen systems for “measurement, reporting and verification of greenhouse gas emissions, as a necessary foundation for the coordination of carbon markets within the Americas and globally.” …
A 2016 World Bank report said greater cooperation through ***carbon trading could reduce the cost of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by almost a third by 2030.
World Bank President Jim Yong Kim welcomed the “Carbon Pricing in the Americas” plan, saying: “Carbon pricing provides the most stable, cost-efficient and predictable path for transitioning countries toward low-carbon economies.”…
Environmental economist Nathaniel Keohane, of the Environmental Defense Fund, also predicted the plan could expand beyond carbon taxes and national markets.
“I see this as a first step towards, and a vision of, a carbon market of the Americas,” he told Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-summit-americas/california-and-washington-state-join-carbon-pledge-in-defiance-of-trump-idUSKBN1E625E
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So poetic justice would be The Big One quake happens, california cracks off the main land mass, and slides into the ocean, taking the festering pustule of Hollyweird and leaving a slick of artificial tan fluid a mile long from all the long gone “celebs”…..
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Part Two:
12 Dec: US News and World Report: AP: The Latest: Jerry Brown to Trump: ‘Get Out of the Way’
California Gov. Jerry Brown is urging President Donald Trump to start fighting climate change or to “get out of the way” and let the rest of the world work on reducing emissions and investing in clean energy.
Speaking with The Associated Press at a global climate summit Tuesday in Paris, Brown said “the rest of the world is very serious about climate change. So are the scientists.”
He argued against Trump’s plans to resurrect coal mining, saying “it’s time for President Trump to join the rest of the world, not oppose it” on climate change.
Brown cited recent violent wildfires in California as an example of extreme weather worsened by human-made climate change. He says “the fires are burning in California. They’ll be burning in France, burning all around the world” if countries don’t reduce their emissions.
6:35 p.m.
World Bank President Jim Yong Kim says the World Bank will stop financing oil and gas projects in two years.
Speaking at the climate summit outside Paris, Jim Yong Kim said Tuesday the World Bank will cease financing exploration and extraction projects after 2019, except “in exceptional circumstances” for the poorest countries where there is a clear benefit in terms of energy access and the project fits within the countries’ Paris Agreement commitments.
Jim Yong Kim also mentioned initiatives in different parts of the world aimed at helping countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Those include a multimillion-dollar deal to deploy millions of LED bulbs and tube lights, thousands of electric cars and charging stations and millions of smart meters throughout India.
4:45 p.m.
In his opening speech Tuesday at the climate summit in Paris, (French President Emmanuel Macron) said “we’re having a good time here… but we’re losing the battle.” He mentioned the “very bad news” this year of U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to reject the Paris accord fighting climate change.
Macron says “the agreement is fragile … we’re not moving fast enough.”
Macron said “it’s time to act and move faster and win this battle.”
He called on world leaders, business leaders and philanthropists attending the Paris summit to detail their commitments and fulfill them…
4:30 p.m.
Arnold Schwarzenegger has surprised a group of schoolchildren as a special guest during Paris’ One Planet Summit.
The 250 French schoolchildren gasped and grabbed their camera as the “Terminator” star and former California governor gave his audience an unexpected pep talk on positive thinking. He compared his fight to be taken seriously in bodybuilding, movies and politics with the challenges of climate change.
Schwarzenegger said if students reject the cynics “we will complete our marathon and we will create a green energy future.”
In a dig at the U.S. president, he said “the United States did not drop out of the Paris agreement. Donald Trump got Donald Trump out of the Paris agreement.”
He led a panel including French actress Marion Cotillard and French Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot…
4:15 p.m.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s office has announced a dozen international projects that will inject hundreds of millions of dollars in efforts to curb climate change.
The plans were presented at a Paris climate summit that Macron convened to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s rejection of the 2015 Paris climate accord.
The projects include a program for eight U.S. states to develop electric vehicles, an investment fund for the hurricane-hit Caribbean and money from Bill Gates’ foundation to help farmers adapt to climate change.
They also aim to speed up the end of the combustion engine as part of the Paris accord’s goals to reduce the emissions that contribute to global warming.
1:30 p.m.
More than 50 heads of state and government were attending the lunch Tuesday organized by the French presidency for a climate summit aimed at finding billions of dollars of financing to help poor countries and industries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.
They were welcomed in the Elysee courtyard by Macron, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and the U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, co-organizers the summit.
Macron will then accompany the leaders to the summit site on a river island by boat.
1:10 p.m.
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg says in a tongue-in-cheek statement that environmentalists owe President Donald Trump a debt of gratitude for acting as a “rallying cry” for action on climate change…
Bloomberg also said he hoped French President Emmanuel Macron was right when he suggested he might be able to change Trump’s mind. He said being able to change one’s mind is the mark of a “smart, confident, honest person.”
1:05 p.m.
Slovenia’s prime minister will not attend the climate summit in Paris because of bad weather.
1:00 p.m.
In an interview with French newspaper Le Monde ahead of a climate summit in Paris, Macron said American cities, regions, states and private actors are able to handle the decrease in climate financing by the federal state after Trump’s decision.
Sean Penn, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bill Gates and Elon Musk are among prominent U.S. figures joining over 50 world leaders at the summit.
12:35 p.m.
The European Union’s top climate and energy official says the global shift to cleaner fuel is “unstoppable” and wants U.S. President Donald Trump’s government to join in.
Miguel Arias Canete told The Associated Press that extreme weather in the U.S. such as hurricanes and heat waves is a sign that “nobody is spared” from climate change…
Canete defended a decision by the European Investment Bank to invest in a pipeline bringing gas from Azerbaijan to southern Europe. He said it was necessary to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, and insisted it wasn’t contradicting the EU’s climate goals.
11:35 a.m.
The Hague Declaration on Planetary Security was unveiled Tuesday at a conference in the Dutch city, on the same day that dozens of world leaders met in Paris to reinvigorate the fight against global warming.
Participants at the Paris meeting are expected to announce billions of dollars’ worth of projects to help poor countries and industries reduce emissions.
The Hague declaration calls for the United Nations to create a special “climate security” envoy, urges better coordination on international migration issues, and calls for cities to take climate risks into account when planning urban expansion.
11:20 a.m.
Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is trying to reassure international players at a climate summit that Americans do want to fight global warming.
Kerry told The Associated Press that many Americans remain “absolutely committed” to the 2015 Paris climate accord despite President Donald Trump’s threat to abandon it…
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the AP that Kerry’s presence at Tuesday’s summit “is a very clear sign that a part of the United States is also totally committed for the planet and for climate change.”
10:55 a.m.
A group of 225 investment funds managing more than $26 trillion in assets says they are going to put pressure on companies to curb their greenhouse gas emissions and disclose climate-related financial information.
The group, which includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension fund, says it will focus on 100 of the world’s largest corporate greenhouse gas emitters.
10:05 a.m.
***Germany’s Angela Merkel, who was once labeled the ‘climate chancellor’ for her efforts to curb global warming, has faced domestic criticism for failing to attend the summit in Paris.
Annalena Baerbock, a spokeswoman on climate issues for the opposition Green party, said Tuesday that French President Emmanuel Macron appears to be overtaking Merkel as Europe’s leading lobbyist on climate issues.
“I think that’s not a good sign,” Baerbock told public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk
9:55 a.m.
Top world officials have opened a climate summit in Paris by saying investors and the entire global financial system need to shift faster toward energy and businesses that don’t worsen climate change.
9:50 a.m.
Activists pretending to represent a massive wave of oil are holding a protest in Paris at the start of an international climate summit.
A few hundred protesters demonstrated Monday in front of the domed Pantheon monument on Paris’ Left Bank as hundreds of world leaders, financiers and others gathered across town for the summit. The protesters unfurled a massive sheet and carried a huge banner reading “Not one more euro for energies of the past.”
8:15 a.m.
Some 3,100 security personnel are fanned out around Paris for Tuesday’s event, including extra patrol boats along the Seine River…
Sean Penn, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Elon Musk are among prominent figures joining the world leaders at the summit…
***Macron, who’s also using the event to raise his international profile, did not invite Trump.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-12-12/the-latest-climate-activists-protest-at-intl-climate-summit
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“Brown cited recent violent wildfires in California as an example of extreme weather worsened by human-made climate change. He says “the fires are burning in California. They’ll be burning in France, burning all around the world” if countries don’t reduce their emissions.”
There are other human population issues that will start fires in cities in France….not temperature….
Brown is a clueless rank leftie who gives climate change pep talks at the Vatican……..birds of a feather ..the pope is a commie too……
Brown is a nominated life member of Club Clueless…..
170
Yes Governor Brown , California was never a bone dry fire risk before the AGW fad was it? No need to do any forestry mangement or fuel reduction is there? and sure we can allow expansion into those areas, no problem is there? stupid climate, causes all the problems.
90
Australia had the same problem…..the greenies wouldnt let people do back burning…then we had huge fires and I think people look att he greenies and had evil thoughts about them, such that the greenies saw the errors of their ways and recanted ( a bit ).
We have had back burning – I think some of the hard core greenies are probably still howling at the moon over that….
60
Maybe we should have a”Hunt a Greeie”day?(just kidding)
00
Part Three:
McGrath covers all the failures of the Paris goals, including the scams, etc., but ends with:
“In the light of these serious flaws, are there any real hopes that the world will keep within the temperature guiderails set down in the Paris pact. I asked a “climate expert” Malte Meinshausen (Senior Researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany and Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne) if he agreed with this pessimistic scenario.”
MEINSHAUSEN: “This is a very depressing picture that you have painted – a true picture. The other side ?, however, is where do we see the the most action.”
(PARAPHRASING) Meinshausen says countries see national self-interest. we are now helped by the sheer economics. and the sheer economics are such that wind power is now the cheapest energy source that humankind has available and solar PV is very cheap also.
the economics are now driving the issue forward and, whether people want it or not, fossil fuels are on the way out because simply it is going to be cheaper in the future to do the right thing…Countries do the most when they see an opportunity for themselves…economic opportunity of gaining something out of mitigation action or other …
McGRATH: do you not think it is highly ironic that what you are saying essentially is that greed and self-interest will save the world.
MEINSHAUSEN: (chuckles) That’s, in the end, what it might come down to and, if that is our only hope for the planet, that we have to rely on greed and self-interest, then so be it. It has worked (slight chuckle) in the past that greed and self-interest has unleashed tremendous power and, if we are lucky enough that greed and self interest worked in the right direction in this case, then (should it be blessed?).
AUDIO: 26mins29secs: 12 Dec: BBC Discovery: Cheating the Atmosphere
All countries are supposed to measure and report their greenhouse gas emissions but BBC environment correspondent, Matt McGrath, reveals there are gaping holes in national inventories. He uncovers serious failings in countries’ accounts of warming gases with many not reporting at all. There are disturbing signs that some banned warming chemicals, which are supposed to have been phased out completely, are once again on the rise. And evidence that worthless carbon credits are still being traded. Meanwhile scientists are growing increasingly frustrated by the refusal of countries to gather and share accurate data in the face of this planetary emergency
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvpfz
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“wind power is now the cheapest energy source that humankind has available and solar PV is very cheap also”
Well, you get what you pay for. Particularly when so much of the real cost of these intermittent energy sources is hidden.
110
“wind power is now the cheapest energy source that humankind has available and solar PV is very cheap also””
This is great news. Subsidies and feed-in mandates are obviously no longer needed 🙂
171
and yet they wilfully ignore high power prices in Denmark, Germany, SA from this so called cheapest source. They seem to have no issue with reality in multiple separate markets directly contradicting what is coming out of their mouths.
80
Did we see this one about two times that cyclones and hurricanes happen as predicted by a model?
“Birth of a storm in the Arabian Sea validates climate model”
https://environment.princeton.edu/news/birth-storm-arabian-sea-validates-climate-model
I got curious and checked to see if the sun did anything different at those same times.
After a long period above 1361,
Cyclone Nilofar formed as the 1AU SORCE TSI dropped to 1358.6
After a long period around 1361.5,
Cyclone Chapala and Megh formed as the 1AU SORCE TSI dropped to 1360.4
http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/tsi_data/six_hourly/sorce_tsi_L3_c06h_latest.txt
More recently we had three big hurricanes at the same time hit the news.
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/sorce_tsi-anim.gif
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reminder: link posted in Jo’s previous Unthreaded:
9 Dec: Washington Examiner: John Siciliano: World Bank president pushes Obama climate goals
AUDIO: 2mins56secs: 12 Dec: BBC Newshour: What can the World Bank do to stop climate change?
The World Bank Group says it has faith in renewable energy and hopes to get out of oil and gas soon. Dr Jim Yong Kim is the President of the World Bank Group, one of the conveners of this week’s climate change summit in Paris. He explains their move away from investment in fossil fuels.
(Photo: Climate change could cause more extremes of weather Credit: AFP)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05qwdq8?ocid=socialflow_facebook
(PARAPHRASING) Jim Yong Kim says today we are announcing we are going to stop all upstream oil and gas operations…we’ve gotten out of coal completely. we believe natural gas is still going to be a transition fuel for low and middle-income countries, but we’re getting out of upstream.
renewables industry is changing so quickly, we might be able to out of oil and gas altogether soon. might do upstream gas only in the case of the poorest countries in the most desperate situations.
BBC – why now? Jim Yong Kim says the price of solar has gone down so much, the cost and size of batteries has gone down so much, we think that energy needs can be provided by other means. the science of this is changing so quickly, we want to get out ahead, and we don’t think we need to be in the upstream oil and gas business any more.
later says everyone is in Paris…except Trump. most remarkable thing for me is there are so many leaders in the climate change fight here – Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates, Arnold Schwarzenegger, other leaders from cities and states, so the presence of the US will be felt very strongly.
BBC – so it doesn’t matter that Trump is pulling out of Paris?
KIM: let me put it this way. when you work in multilateral org like World Bank, you realise in vast majority of developing countries, there is no doubt that climate change is real. I can’t tell you how many African leaders have told me that the boot of climate change is on their necks. there’s a sense here (in Paris) that it’s not only real, but it’s accelerating, and we have to act accordingly.
—-
wonder if President Trump can pull US funding from the World Bank! and tell the UN to move its offices out of the US?
41
“wonder if President Trump can pull US funding from the World Bank! and tell the UN to move its offices out of the US?”
The UN site is wondeful spot to put a large modern Christian cathederal….just demolish the black heart HQ of the UN first…..
10
This past summer was the lowest daily high ever recorded since measurements began in 1874, it was also cloudy and wet.
Danish Met Office (DMI)
Its only one year so its technically a weather anomaly, but I’m calling it a regional cooling signal.
111
Why not? If the warmest daily temperature had been recorded you know it would have been “proof” of The Warming.
In the meantime, someone should archive that data point before they ‘correct’ it.
90
La Nina is on the move and NZ is sitting in a pool of warm water.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.12.11.2017.gif
30
Others will call it climate disruption and was all “predicted” in hind casting by the climate models (once tweaked after the fact)
50
***casts a shadow? surely something a little strong than that, NYT:
12 Dec: NYT: Macron Holds a Climate Summit, and ***Trump Casts a Shadow
By AURELIEN BREEDEN and ELIAN PELTIER
BOULOGNE-BILLANCOURT, France — Money was on everybody’s mind at the climate summit meeting organized here on Tuesday, as President Emmanuel Macron of France tried to shore up support for the Paris climate deal by urging heads of state, chief executives and investors to commit more funding to the fight against global warming…
“We are losing the battle,” Mr. Macron said in his speech opening the talks. He called Mr. Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris deal “very bad news,” but added that “many have decided to not necessarily accept the American federal government’s decision to leave the Paris agreement.”
“Second, we are not going fast enough,” Mr. Macron said. “What we are starting today is the time of action, because the urgency has become permanent and the challenge of our generation is to act.”…
The World Bank, one of the organizers of the meeting, said it would no longer finance oil and gas exploration and extraction projects after 2019, with exceptions for poorer countries. Ma Kai, a vice premier of China, said that his country would start its own carbon market in the coming days. And Axa, the global insurance giant, announced that it would phase out insurance coverage “for new coal construction projects and oil sands businesses.”
Other announcements included the creation of a space observatory for climate research, a five-year initiative of 220 global investors to step up pressure on the 100 companies that emit the most greenhouse gas, and the start of a carbon pricing market, initiated by Mexico, to connect different regions of the Americas that have put a price tag on carbon, including California, Quebec and Ontario.
Jovenel Moïse, the president of Haiti, said that richer countries were lagging in their commitments. Industrialized nations have pledged to provide $100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and address the effects of climate change.
“Hurricanes aren’t going to wait for Haiti, an island country,” Mr. Moïse said. (While the relationship between climate change and hurricanes is complicated, it is becoming clear that a warming planet will produce wetter storms and that rising sea levels will worsen the impact of storm surges.)
Critics calls the announcements a vague laundry list of promises, and said that too much public and private funding continued to finance fossil fuels…
“We left Bonn with the feeling that the job was unfinished,” said Lucile Dufour, who follows international negotiations on climate change for Réseau Action Climat, a French advocacy group. “States made big speeches, but without any concrete or ambitious measures.”
Tuesday’s meeting left her with a similar impression, she said. “The urgency is there in the speeches, but the announcements aren’t.”…
***The official American representative was D. Brent Hardt, chargé d’affaires at the United States Embassy in Paris…
Calling Mr. Trump’s decision to leave the accord “extremely aggressive,” (Macron) repeated warnings made in September at the United Nations General Assembly that he would not renegotiate the Paris agreement with Mr. Trump. But Mr. Macron added, “I’m ready to welcome him if he decides to come back.”…
Americans at the meeting — several of whom were also present in Bonn as a kind of ***shadow delegation — were dismissive of Mr. Trump, arguing that the American president’s position on climate change would help rally those in favor of action against global warming…
Governor Brown said the effort in the United States to fight climate change was being led “from the cities, from the states, from corporate leaders, from universities.”
“We have a climate denier in the White House who says climate change is a hoax, that there is no evidence, that it is a total fantasy — but there it is,” Mr. Brown said. “We can’t wait for the White House to wake up.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/world/europe/macron-climate-summit.html
30
“Money was on everybody’s mind at the climate summit meeting organized here on Tuesday” = Money was on everybody’s mind at every climate summit.
120
“The World Bank, one of the organizers of the meeting, said it would no longer finance oil and gas exploration and extraction projects after 2019, with exceptions for poorer countries. Ma Kai, a vice premier of China, said that his country would start its own carbon market in the coming days. And Axa, the global insurance giant, announced that it would phase out insurance coverage “for new coal construction projects and oil sands businesses.”
Yep, sideline the useless UN and all its World Bank dross, and go it alone.
The irony a communist money-loving country sidelining a “trendy-communist” organization…..
60
I’ve just listened to Turnbull’s speech in Bennelong regarding the creation of new jobs in the defense industry. I must say it was very impressive. If that sort of talk becomes the new norm and it is followed up with real actions then perhaps the LNP will not lose the next election after all. Only time will tell. My skepticism though is still strong but I would be gladly be proven wrong as a government under Shorten would be a complete disaster for us all.
60
PeterS, the Liberal’s are further underwater than a South Australian submarine at the moment.
It’s a long, long way to the surface.
If Australian conservatives want a green-left government they’ll vote Labor.
Turnbull has a serious knowledge problem. He seems to think the role of the economy is to provide jobs.
If he ever did any economics he must have failed, or he’d understand something about the Factors of Production.
100
I did say my skepticism is still high so my stance is like yours. I’m just saying that my understanding of how Turnbull thinks given his experience prior to becoming a politicians makes me wonder if he is embarking a different style of politicising (ie, telling a different set of fibs) from here on to try and win people back. I just don’t trust bankers or ex-bankers, and given he came from Goldman Sachs well – I don’t need to fill in the dots do I?
60
All good PeterS. The dots are beacons and the lines are five lane freeways.
Turnbull is unlikely to win people back. That might happen after he’s gone. For good.
I’m always bemused as to why politicians don’t tell the truth. The hard truth.
If, for example, they preached that labour, like land, capital and entrepreneurship are inputs to production, people might start to give them all a little more credit. Jobs are not an output; they are an input that is costed into the production process. Get the costing wrong and sub-optimal outcomes are the result.
People are not stupid. They understand that. Turnbull arrogantly thinks they are (stupid) and that’s one of his many flaws.
New jobs in the defence industry? Seriously? That’s the output? What will they be doing? Practicing the digging of foxholes? Trenches? Latrines?
Turnbull is incompetent. Regrettably.
80
Okay, I have not heard this speech or seen the transcripts but colour me cynical.
First – Bennelong the Defence State? Okay…
Second – Exactly what are these defence jobs and exactly how new are they?
SEA 5000? (aka ANZAC replacement) Not new.
Land 400 Phase Two? (aka ASLAV replacement) or Phase Three? (aka M113AS4 replacement) Not new.
Land 75? (BCSS) Not new
Air 2025? (aka JORN upgrade) Not new.
Cynically, unless Turnbull has suddenly unveiled some MAJOR new project then these new jobs have been ones people have been planning towards for years. If he has sprung a new project on us then the timelines involved will basically mean these new jobs are nearly two elections away.
80
Okay, looked into it a bit deeper.
From the Daily Telly report the dot points are $20m, 200 new jobs and Raytheon.
If you read deeper you will find this is AWD (ie – Sea4000 Phase 3) and Raytheon is sub contracted to BAE Systems who are managing the project.
Okay…
So look a bit deeper and this seems to be part of the $70 million sustainment contract awarded to BAE Systems in late 2016.
So why is Raytheon involved? Simple, they are the OEM for large amounts of the equipment fitted to the AWD and getting them to maintain their own sub systems is perfectly normal.
Also $20m = 200 new jobs? Maybe… just… but not for very long.
So, to be honest, nothing new here. Turnbull and Pyne are selling a donkey here me thinks.
70
lol.
12 Dec: MainePublic Oregon: Climate Protester Arrested After Walking Laps Around Portland Courthouse For 15 Hours
By Abukar Adan
Federal authorities have arrested a protester for trespassing in front of the U.S District Court in Portland. The arrest followed a 15-hour walking vigil around the courthouse that was intended to bring attention to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement.
Rob Levin knew what he was about to do would land him in jail. But that didn’t stop him from erecting a U.S. flag at half-staff on the premises of the federal courthouse while over a dozen supporters stood in solidarity with him…
Levin began his protest the previous night around midnight. And for more than 15 hours, he walked in a circle around U.S. District Court, in snow, sleet and freezing rain. He walked the loop 195 times, once for each country that has signed on to Paris climate agreement.
Then, toward the end, Levin and a handful of others walked counterclockwise to symbolize the U.S. going back on the treaty…
Among the supporters was Liz McGhee…
McGhee says she’s particularly concerned about the effect that climate change is having on the Arctic and its wildlife.
“The thing that’s really been breaking my heart is what’s been happening to the polar bears and all the other creatures that are not quite the studs and the poster boys that the polar bears are,” she says…
http://mainepublic.org/post/climate-protester-arrested-after-walking-laps-around-portland-courthouse-15-hours
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oops…it’s Maine Public radio, WMEA radio, which is based in Portland, the most populous city in the State of Maine (not Oregon).
50
Whatever the climate is, it is sure having a devastating effect on Rob Levin and Liz McGhee. They have both gone stark raving mad.
43
The frightening thing is that people like that … vote.
20
Climate change solution reveals itself, or rather, himself:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/kim-jongun-controls-the-weather-north-koreans-told-20171212-h030w3.html
Amongst his many supreme skills, it turns out Kim Jung-in can control the weather as well. This would explain why climate models never work, they need to include a dummy variable representing the glorious North Korean leader.
100
OMG fairfax. Can’t be true
42
Just what the modellers need: a stand alone Fudge-Factor; they can’t get the clouds one right as it is so this would give them added flexibility.
They could maybe even turn their projections into real predictions.
10
nice timing –
only BBC so far reports -15C; others have -13C. haven’t checked the Met Office:
12 Dec: BBC: Justin Parkinson: Trump state visit and freezing weather
Icy conditions continue across UK…
In some places thermometers went as low as -15C overnight…
12 Dec: UK Independent: UK weather latest: Britain faced coldest night of 2017 as temperatures plummeted to -13C
The coldest night of the year so far has led to fresh disruption as flights were cancelled, schools remained closed and drivers faced lengthy delays…
***Passengers travelling on Eurotunnel Le Shuttle services in both directions between Folkestone and Calais faced estimated delays of up to six hours after “horrific” weather conditions ***damaged the power supply, particularly on the continent, the company said…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-latest-today-coldest-night-year-freezing-temperatures-shawbury-shropshire-met-office-a8105536.html
12 Dec: Sky News: Disruption sparks energy price surge just as cold snap bites
Analysts say the timing of disruption to supply could not be worse as freezing winter weather sets in.
Oil and gas prices have surged after an explosion in Austria and disruption to supplies from the North Sea hit the energy market, just as a cold snap drives up demand.
One person was killed and 18 injured at the blast in Baumgarten an der March, the site of one of Europe’s biggest supply hubs, on Tuesday.
The site was evacuated and closed though operator Gas Connect later said it would soon be brought back online.
The blast prompted gas prices to surge across Europe, including a 40% rise in the UK to 95p per therm – a level not seen since 2013. A spokesman for National Grid said there was sufficient gas to meet demand.
The outage followed the closure of the Forties pipeline for repairs on Monday after a crack was discovered.
The pipeline, which carries 40% of North Sea oil and gas, is expected to be closed for a couple of weeks while repairs are carried out.
Operator Ineos said in an email to customers: “We have previously indicated a time frame of three to four weeks and we believe it is no less than two.”
Analysts at investment bank Jefferies said: “The timing of the outage could not be much worse as winter weather is just materialising.”
Massimo Di-Odoardo, analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said: “If supply does not resume soon and the cold weather continues, prices will remain strong through the winter.”
He said it could prompt competition between customers in Europe and Asia to import shipments of liquid natural gas.
Oil prices surged, with Brent crude pushing above $65 a barrel for the first time since June 2015, though it later slid back below $64.
***Shares in energy giants BP and Centrica rose more than 2% while Royal Dutch Shell climbed more than 1%…
The Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises Western governments and coordinates the release of oil from strategic stocks in the case of supply disruptions, said it was “monitoring the situation closely”.
The Baumgarten plant in Austria receives around 40bn cubic metres of gas each year and redistributes it across Europe, including to Germany and northern Italy.
Operator Gas Connect said there could be interruptions in supply to Italy and Croatia, but not elsewhere.
https://news.sky.com/story/energy-prices-jump-after-explosion-at-gas-hub-in-austria-11167810
41
***guessing this is where BBC’s -15C came from. what happened to it?
Twitter: Met Office UK
TWEET: It’s officially the coldest night of the year so far with a freezing minus 13 °C at Shawbury in Shropshire #brrrr…
***Reply: Diogobart: Um not its church Lawford because on the West Midlands weather news they said -15 in church Lawford
Reply: Dexter and Poppy: You quote Shawbury but in your graphics the minus 13 derives from the cotswolds? Sorry to be picky, sticking up for beautiful Shropshire
Reply: Boi’d: Don’t blame me and my SUV, blame #algore with his #climatechange cult. He is clearly wrong. Third week December Germany will suffer deep freeze if long term predictions are correct. Weather and climate cannot be controlled by you, me or money. It’s that simple.
Reply: Gary Fitzsimmons: Well said, it’s the Sun’s powerful Solar cycles that drives climate change, certainly not us. Ironic how they are meeting in Paris this week to discuss global warming right when Europe is in midst of a deep freeze. $$$$$$$
(GRAPHIC WITH EDENHOFER REDISTRIBUTION QUOTE)
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/940449581405556736
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”
What Centrists and Undecideds Must Realize About Modern Day Politics
Is that 100% of the insanity you see coming out of the political world is COMPLETELY owned by the left.
Think about this the next time you vote.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/12/what-centrists-.html
Unfortunately Oz seems to have got ahead of this curve
70
“Woke Conservatives And The Awesome Power Of Not Caring ”
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2017/12/11/woke-conservatives-and-the-awesome-power-of-not-caring-n2420738
Via SDA
40
***take this, Macron:
12 Dec: UK Telegraph: Gas shortage to push up bills after ‘perfect storm’ of energy problems
By Jillian Ambrose, Energy Editor and Gordon Rayner
Oil prices have climbed so steeply that motoring organisations are warning of a 3p per litre increase at the pumps by Christmas.
MPs have told energy companies that any hike in bills for consumers would be a “disgrace” because wholesale prices are agreed well in advance.
Ian Liddell-Grainger, the Conservative MP and member of the parliamentary business and energy select committee, said: “Passing on price rises to the consumer would be totally unfair because it’s not their fault and this is nothing to do with them…
Meanwhile, Norway’s giant energy company Statoil said that it reduced output from its platform in Troll, Europe’s biggest offshore gas field, because of a power outage.
Norway is one of the main suppliers of gas to the UK.
The current cold snap has driven gas demand in homes and businesses to their highest forecast levels since early 2013…
***Demand for gas has also been driven steadily higher in recent years by the shutdown of coal plants…
The events have pushed gas prices to their highest level for six years, from just 57p a unit before the shutdown of the Forties pipeline on Monday to more than 90p this evening.
Oliver Sanderson, a Thomson Reuters analyst, warned that the “spectacular” confluence of problems could result in high prices for the rest of the winter. “This isn’t just about where we’ll find the gas we need for today – it’s about where to find the gas we’ll need in January,” he told The Daily Telegraph.
“If small suppliers haven’t bought energy in advance, and that is possible due to the sudden start of cold weather in the last few weeks, they could be in trouble,” he warned.
“The European gas market seems to be going through a perfect storm,” said Massimo Di-Odoardo, an industry analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
The wholesale gas price for January has already climbed by almost a third, sparking concern that energy suppliers will pass increased costs on to their customers by raising tariffs…
(BOX) Predictable predicament | The gas crisis experts saw coming
For years experts have warned that the stark reversal of Britain’s energy fortunes over the last decade has left the country vulnerable to the eye-watering price shocks which have emerged this week.
In 2005 the UK was a net exporter of energy. North Sea oil production boomed, and the power system ran ***mainly on cheap coal. Today, the North Sea’s creaking infrastructure and dwindling North Sea supplies struggle to deliver the gas which is needed to heat homes and run the gas-power plants which are expected to generate the majority of our electricity.
Where North Sea gas once stood, is now a growing reliance on imports from Norway, Qatar and the Russian gas which flows into neighbouring markets.
The Government is quick to stress that the UK’s gas security is based on a diverse range of sources, but they do all have one thing in common: few are within Britain’s control, and all come at a cost if markets are squeezed.
Despite this growing dependence on others, the Government has turned its back on the UK’s ageing subsea storage site which now stands empty having once held enough gas to meet 40pc of the UK’s daily needs.
***Gas industry supporters blame the Government’s zeal for cutting carbon emissions for distracting officials from the need to keep backing new gas storage projects, and shale gas developments, before the low-carbon investments begin to pay off…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/12/fears-uk-gas-prices-could-soar-winter-shock-events-hit-supply/
51
Travel by electric car might get more problematical
“The Bridge Will Be Held Up By The Force Of Social Justice
According to Dr Riley, academic rigour and the expectation of competence are “exclusionary” and tools of “privilege,” and are unfair to women and minorities, for whom rigour and competence are presumably impossible. And apparently, engineers need to spend less time doing load-bearing calculations and more time pondering “radical protest” and “Marxist traditions.” ”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/12/the-bridge-will.html
90
Yes. Give everybody a medal. Well, except for the priviledged of course. The only problem will be scientifically calculating feelings. How many micro-aggressions can a bridge withstand?
70
So, there I was the other day, looking up some information about the Tay Bridge Disaster back in 1879, and I came across the site for the List of bridge failures ….. and hey, there couldn’t be very many of them now could there be?
Wrong!
List of bridge failures
When you get to the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in 1940, click on that and around half way down there’s a link to a short video on the collapse. Just amazing.
Tony.
70
bad timing:
12 Dec: Reuters: U.S. looks to Germany to stop Baltic undersea Russian gas pipeline
by Timothy Gardner
A Russian pipeline project that would boost Moscow’s ability to manipulate European energy markets can be slowed by Denmark but ultimately Germany would be needed to stop it, U.S. State Department officials said on Tuesday.
Russian natural gas company Gazprom and its European partners are seeking to build Nord Stream 2, a project to move gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing existing land routes through Ukraine and Poland.
U.S. diplomats are talking to their German counterparts about the project, but it is unclear whether Germany’s government, still forming after elections in September, can be convinced to stop it. Germany and neighboring Austria have companies financing the pipeline, which would carry 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year…
The Trump administration, like the Obama administration before it, is concerned that Nord Stream 2, which would concentrate 75 percent of Russian gas shipments to Europe, could help Moscow use energy as a weapon…
Nord Stream 2 is a “political rather than a commercial undertaking” that could slash pipeline transit payments Russia makes to Ukraine by about $2 billion a year, (A. Wess Mitchell, assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs) said…
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson encouraged Denmark to consider domestic laws to stop the pipeline. But the Nord Stream consortium is looking at another route through international waters just north of Denmark that would mean the project could proceed despite any ban.
Washington hopes to diversify Europe’s gas supply with shipments of U.S. liquefied natural gas, or LNG, a business that has emerged recently with advent of the fracking boom. Currently 90 percent of U.S. LNG goes to markets in Asia. But the exports are expected to soar in coming years as U.S. facilities open, which could mean more will be available for Europe…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-energy-europe/u-s-looks-to-germany-to-stop-baltic-undersea-russian-gas-pipeline-idUSKBN1E62TV
12 Dec: WSJ: Paul Sonne: U.S. Criticizes Germany’s Support of New Russian Natural Gas Line
(Emre Peker in Brussels and Andrea Thomas in Berlin contributed to this article)
“On energy security, Germany gets it wrong,” (A. Wess Mitchell, assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs) said in testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, referring to the country’s support for the Russian gas pipeline. “And it gets it wrong in a way that hurts other EU member states.”…
A spokeswoman for the German economics ministry declined to comment on Mr. Mitchell‘s criticism of Germany. “For us, Nord Stream 2 is a corporate project,” said spokeswoman Tanja Alemany…
A $10 billion project, Nord Stream 2 had been planned as a joint venture that includes Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Wintershall AG, Uniper SE , OMV AG and Engie SA, but Polish regulators scuttled that arrangement. The companies are still backing the project, even though it is now wholly owned by Gazprom and based in Switzerland…
Companies involved in the project accused U.S. lawmakers of trying to shore up U.S. liquefied-natural-gas exports to Europe by blocking the Russian transport route…
Sebastian Sass, Nord Stream 2 AG’s European Union representative, said the project was in the interest of European energy security, contrary to Mr. Mitchell’s argument…
With plenty of capacity for liquefied-natural-gas imports to Europe from several countries, Mr. Sass said, no supplier is in the position to use gas supply as a vehicle for political influence.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-criticizes-germanys-support-of-new-russian-natural-gas-line-1513122298
30
See this is what happens when there is a non-believer as president. How could Russia possible hold Europe to ransom on energy supply when it has all that wind and solar doing the heavy lifting! All European transport will be electric powered in a little over a decade.
It is also concluded that Obama was actually a closet skeptic if he pushed the same line as Trump.
50
The EU is also involved with the Southern Gas Corridor, which was, at some point recently, supposed to supply 20% of Europes gas needs, just from the BP-operated Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan.
It is supposed to be a means of reducing dependence on Russia, but, as my Azeri friends say, the only way to avoid problems like Georgia, Chechnya, and Crimea, is to keep funnelling money towards Moscow, so it is a bit of a joke, really.
https://www.bp.com/en_az/caspian/operationsprojects/Shahdeniz/SDstage2.html
20
More desperate Global Warming propaganda from Canada’s Pravda:
“Bigger, hotter wildfires are ravaging forests and burning them to the ground more frequently as the climate gets hotter and drier. Now a new study shows that in some places in the U.S., those forests may never grow back.
That adds to evidence that amid climate change, some forest landscapes — including those in Canada — can change dramatically after being burned.
The new U.S. study looked at 1,500 forest sites affected by 52 wildfires in five states in the U.S. Rockies between 1985 and 2015. It found overall decreases in the amount of tree regrowth since 2000 compared to before 2000 due to warmer, drier conditions.”
Yes, forest landscapes do “change dramatically after being burned.” No matter what. They got that part right, and there is some interesting detail here away from the usual CAGW spin.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/forests-wildfires-1.4444998
The real stupidity of this is they are looking at forest types that prevail in some cases from New Mexico to Yukon. That and the problem that the supposed climate effects don’t fit the time periods they are using. And many other problems with this.
Fake Climate Fear does cause an increase in research funding.
101
By Peter GorrieSpecial to the Star
Fri., Aug. 6, 2010
I sent an email asking Gorrie how the ship got there in the first place.
Crickets.
120
meant for #21
10
Clipes! meant for #20
10
Give it up man! You’re auguring in! Aiee!
00
Easy for you to say.
00
updates:
13 Dec: Bloomberg: Europe’s Gas Flows to Resume After Explosion Rattles Markets
by Rob Verdonck, Mathew Carr and Matthias Wabl
Oil company OMV AG, which controls the Baumgarten gas hub, managed to divert international transit pipelines so that flows to Italy, Germany and Hungary can resume before midnight local time, according to an emailed statement.
“We managed to technically isolate the affected area,” Stefan Wagenhofer, managing director of OMV unit Gas Connect Austria GmbH, told ORF television. This allows the company to divert international flows and “resume transit within hours.”…
A blast about 9 a.m. at the Baumgarten compressor station killed at least one person and injured at least 21 people…
Britain lacks the gas storage sites and web of interconnections that make most continental European markets better able to cope with disruption. Reduced pipeline gas flows may increase competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas cargoes this winter, according to WoodMac.
Front-month gas in Britain jumped as much as 23 percent to 73.7 pence a therm ($9.86 a million British thermal units) on ICE Futures Europe, the highest since December 2013. The comparable U.K. power contract rose as much as 15 percent, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. Same-day gas soared as much as 46 percent.
Baumgarten, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) northeast of Vienna, transports the equivalent of a 10th of Europe’s gas demand…
Flows on the Trans Austria Gas pipeline, which carries Russian gas to Italy, are set to resume by midnight, Marco Alvera, the chief executive officer of gas transmission company Snam SpA, said in an emailed statement.
Italy, which relies on Russian flows for 30 percent of its demand, earlier declared a state of emergency for gas. OMV had initially said it would take “days” to fully restore the facility, roiling power and gas markets across the continent…
German power futures for next year climbed to the highest in more than four years, advancing as much as 3.1 percent on the EEX exchange in Leipzig. Coal rose as much as 2 percent to $90.75 a ton, the highest for a front-year contract since May 2013 on ICE Futures Europe. Power prices also jumped in France and the Nordic region…
Compounding supply problems, the Norwegian network manager on Tuesday cut flows from Troll, Europe’s largest offshore gas field, after an unplanned power outage that also affected other sites in Norway, the U.K.’s biggest foreign supplier. Gas flows from Belgium and the Netherlands also dipped from near-record levels after the explosion in Austria, as a constraint occurred on the U.K. side of the BBL pipeline that delivers Dutch gas…
Baumgarten is Austria’s largest gas reception point and main distribution hub for imports from countries including Russia, Europe’s biggest gas supplier. Moscow-based Gazprom PJSC said it “is working on redistribution of gas flows and does its best to secure uninterrupted gas supplies to the clients on this transport direction.”
Police are investigating the exact circumstances of the blast, which is assumed to be the result of a technical incident, Gas Connect said on its website…
The U.K. is more vulnerable than normal this winter because Centrica Plc is closing the nation’s biggest storage site after more than 30 years. The Rough facility was able to meet as much as 10 percent of peak winter demand but that is now much reduced as it pumps out its last remaining fuel.
It takes about two weeks to bring LNG from Qatar, the U.K.’s biggest supplier of the super-chilled fuel. Only one tanker, the Bu Samra, is confirmed as arriving in the U.K. this month. The first tanker from Russia’s Arctic plant Yamal LNG may also head to Britain and would arrive in about five days, according to shipping website sea-distances…
The supply crisis in the U.K. may lead to more LNG imports from the U.S.’s Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana, said Zach Allen, president of vessel-tracking company Pan Eurasian Enterprises. The addition of the Cove Point facility in Maryland would cut shipping times to Europe, he said. The Dominion Energy Inc.’s facility is preparing to start production.
“The good news is Europe will not “freeze in the dark,” the bad news is keeping the lights and the heat on may not be pretty,” Allen said.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2017/12/12/u-k-gas-surges-after-explosion-in-austria-tightens-supply
10
Ontar-io, Ontari-owe.
https://screenshots.firefox.com/uCDW701x31Kp9EwO/reports.ieso.ca
10
The big battery in SA kicked in about 100 MW for 20 minutes this morning as wind supplied 50% of SA demand.
20
50% of SA demand? thats the rounding error in NSW demand isnt it?
40
100MW for 20 mins! Surely that must impact its lifetime. Do you know if Other sources started delivering power after 20 mins, or perhaps this was all the battery could do?
30
Every cycle has some impact on cycle life. The linked curve gives accelerated cycle life data for an LiFePO4 battery:
https://www.powertechsystems.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Cycles-vs-DoD.png
The 100MW is close to 1C rate for the SA battery. A DoD of 25% (100MW for 20 minutes with 129MWh battery) means it has used approximately 1/80,000 or 0.00125% of its cycle life.
My guess is that calendar life will be the determinant of the battery life if it is used sparingly. No one knows the calendar life of LiFePO4 batteries although some cells suffer early life failures through rapid internal discharge – plastic case batteries end up being bulged due to the heat.
40
Rick…
FYI, :-.. the Tesla battery cells are NMC ,..not LiFePO4. A very different chemistry.
10
I was under the impression that Tesla sourced this particular set of batteries from Samsung, rather than their usual supplier, Panasonic, but maybe I imagined it…
00
Yes james, that was my understanding from a statement made by Musk.
Tesla’s/Panasonic’s standard cell chemistry is NCA, but it is very likely they have improved that in their new 21700 cell to a NMC formulation also
But Samsung also make a NMC 21700 cell which would most probably be the one used for the SA battery.
No certainty to that though !
00
The Big Battery uses Samsung SDI cells.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/30/tesla-using-samsung-sdi-battery-cells-129-mwh-south-australia-facility/amp/
http://www.samsungsdi.com/ess/index.html
00
“Samsung SDI” is just the company name ( a sub division of Samsung industries)
Samsung SDI make a whole range of cells for different applications, some of which are NMC /INR chemistry.
00
Yes Chad: lithium ion not Lithium iron. They r different.
00
The li-ion NMC cycle life may be a little better than the chart I linked to for the LFP. Data I can find gives >3200 cycles at 80% DoD compared with the 3000 cycles at 1C for the LFP.
00
I suspect they are still testing/commissioning the battery and its controls.
They have just done a second 100MW discharge for a few minutes (10-20 ?) but i dont see that it was for essential use, as at that time the coupled windfarm was pretty much at peak output anyway.
100MW is way below a 1C discharge rate ,..something those cells can easily cope with within their design parameters.
You can see the battery output here…
http://nem.mwheeler.org/stations#HPRG1
10
I would expect to see at some stage a full. ” capacity test” ,..ie do a complete 129 MWh discharge at the 30 MW level, …4hours continuous, before final sign offf.
When you compare the battery output to the Hornsdale Windfarm output ..
http://nem.mwheeler.org/stations#HDWF3
….its very apparent how trivial the battery capacity is and that it can never serve as backup or even smoothing for the power output.
It can only ever perform some level of FCAS, and i suspect that is also limited.
PS ..Those Hornsdale wind farms have an interesting output characteristic ?
30
Thanks for the interesting discussions everybody – lots to think about. It still leaves me wondering what use this battery can ever be, as it can’t deliver large amounts of power for too long before impacting its lifetime, and if all it can deliver is a smaller amount of power over a few hours, what good is that? Looking at the Hornsdale output, even though its cyclic nature is strange, it’s clear that the battery cannot even backup this wind farm, let alone backup anything else. All this seems to be is a very expensive experiment whose only beneficiary is Tesla.
10
I agree the battery is useless from a supply “back up” or output smoothing Perspective,…but i suspect it may have some use as a FCAS unit to prevent damage to other equipment in an emergency situation.
But i disagree that Musk is the only beneficiary, ..
The Battery operator (owner ?) , Neoen, will be able to sell that 90MWh to the grid at peak bid values …often over $1000 /MWh… As well as the FCAS input, which has been suggested may become even more lucrative, …
So there is definitely a financial angle to this project.
00
3:40 am this morning ( Dec 15th)… the big battery discharged 70MW for 1 hr 50 mins continuous..thats 128.1 Mwh of capacity.
…Most likely the capacity test i mentioned would be required.
http://nem.mwheeler.org/stations#HPRG1
00
Chad, all I see at the referenced site is HPRG1 delivering 25-30 MW for an hour this morning?
00
Ah, but it delivered as you reported at 3.40 pm yesterday.
00
“Another success for President Trump. Climate scientists leaving the US and moving to France.”
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/12/draining-the-climate-swamp/
50
France has enough problems, why subject it to more…?
00
Bloody tourists
https://screenshots.firefox.com/NfpMDk0cbI3eSfbU/www.opg.com
20
An impressive sight though, and very pretty at night with the lighting, despite the tap being turned partially off.
20
h/tAurorusBorealus Dec 12, 2017 8:59 PM The US legislature in opposition to the US Constitution has effectively destroyed any possible meaning or construct to the concept of government!! Below is the law in question. You want to note the section that states, “any matter within the jurisdiction of the executive, legislative, or judicial branch.” Take special note of “legislative”
This kind of entrapment — the criminalization of the act of lying to the government, in Flynn’s case about a non-crime — is facilitated under the unconstitutional Section 1001 of Title 18, in the United States Code.
“It is a matter of public record in the U.S. that the following people have lied to the U.S. federal legislature in a matter over which they have jurisdiction and are in criminal violation of this law: James Clapper, Robert Mueller, Darrell Issa, James Comey, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Colin Powell, Keith Alexander, and many, many others. In fact, James Clapper and Keith Alexander both have declared themselves publicly to be guilty of violating this law and have admitted that they are felons.”
The only question now is how can the US executive branch plus SCOTUS remedy this SPECTACULAR LEGISLATIVE MESS prior to this new year and the resultant civil war?
11
Again!”The only question now is how can the US executive branch plus SCOTUS remedy this SPECTACULAR LEGISLATIVE MESS prior to this new year and the resultant ciυil wαr?” You opposing hemisphere folk have had it to easy way to long. 97% of the thermo-neuclear warheads reside in the NH. Merry Christmas
51
98% of the people live north of the Tropic of Capricorn. Keep your warheads on your side.
30
Indeed! What we have now are but destructive weapons that could power all, but usins remain way to stoopid to learn how to do dat. Arrogance abounds!
21
Meh…Scalar tech can dude nukes in flight….no biggie….
Nuclear is obsolete now.
00
Nukes on boats in shipping containers?
00
No problem.
00
OriginalSteve December 14, 2017 at 7:15 am
TdeF December 14, 2017 at 8:58 am
OriginalSteve December 14, 2017 at 10:34 am
To reiterate “but usins remain way to stoopid to learn how to do dat. Arrogance abounds!” The learn how to do dat IS CONVERTING THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS tech TO USEFUL POWER PRODUCTION hint hint 🙁 Define a ‘thermonuclear’ weapon Do it yourself A-bomb kits are not included!! FUSION vs FISSION!
01
BTW: there is no way the Chinese government would let NORK ‘fat kim’, any where near an actual THERMONUCLEAR WEAPON. Pleasant\pheasant\peasant dreams!
01
Each member of any branch of the US Government is sworn to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States. Where oh were has any recent member of this putrid governmental stink-hole ever honored such oath? 🙁
01
I do not remember ‘forefathers’, 2 maybe 2.5, sometimes strict, mostly happy, jolly, always handing me back to ‘mommy’ if I gots stinky; ‘papa do not like stinky’! What do I know?
21
Doug Jones (DEM) 49.92% 671,151
Roy S. Moore (REP) 48.38% 650,436
The NH will survive, somehow! Not so sure of upside down folk with training wheels on reindeer for the warm season! 🙂
22
Joanne,
Please take the time to edit my attempt #27 to your standards. I think you can help lots to avoid this USA disaster I see, and also help avoid what ever danger you perceive. Thank you!
01
all the searching earlier today did not result in a single article on the following:
12 Dec: ClimateChangeNews: Trump seeks pro-coal alliance as global push against fuel grows
While leaders gather in Paris to celebrate the second anniversary of global climate pact, Trump official says US wants to form group of countries to promote “clean” coal
By Karl Mathiesen
The US’ proposed “Clean Coal Alliance” has not begun recruiting for members, according to Washington-based E&E News, which broke the story on Monday. But Australia, Indonesia, China, India, Ukraine, Poland and Japan were all likely to be asked to join.
“The US is considering pulling together a group of countries that support using cleaner, more efficient fossil fuels,” an administration official told E&E. “There is an anti-fossil fuel movement being aggressively pursued by a number of countries and environmental activists.”
The effort will be led by Trump’s main climate advisor George David Banks and the US Department of Energy. It would encourage cooperation on technologies that reduce the carbon footprint of the most polluting fossil fuel. It will also promote natural gas exports…
The timing of the White House announcement was not accidental. It came on the eve of world leaders (not Donald Trump, who was not invited) gathering in Paris to mark the second anniversary of the Paris climate deal…
In an article for the Guardian, British prime minister Theresa May said: “Burning coal to generate electricity is one of the dirtiest and most destructive ways of generating power.”…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/12/12/trump-seeks-pro-coal-allies-global-push-fuel-grows/
behind paywall:
11 Dec: E&E News: WHITE HOUSE: Trump admin to launch ‘clean coal’ effort
E&E News · 1 day ago
FakeNews headline at Renew Economy:
13 Dec: RenewEconomy: Australia ***ASKED to join Trump pro-coal alliance
By Karl Mathiesen, Climate Home
The US’ proposed “Clean Coal Alliance” ***has not begun recruiting for members, according to Washington-based E&E News, which broke the story on Monday. But Australia, Indonesia, China, India, Ukraine, Poland and Japan were all likely to be asked to join…
AND THAT’S IT FOR THAT STORY.
21
Fascinating.
Will Australia as one of the two major exporters of coal in the world join this as a major coal supplier. Or will
Australia reject this as the National Bank now refuses to fund coal, AGL says ‘carbon constraints’ are part of the landscape and shuts Liddell and State governments shut coal power?
Also this morning, the Chinese have invested $650Billion in new coal fired power, which claiming to be world leaders in carbon dioxide reduction.
Hypocrisy has never been more evident than in the posturing on ‘dirty’ Coal. It all goes back to vegan Adolph Hitler who said we had to get away from coal, perhaps to wind and tide energy. He may have been defeated but Germany has never stopped on that mystic Green program. It is so far advanced that people really believe diesel is clean and Green. Even German Volkswagen. Too bad about the fudged software.
10
Diesel Green? According to Jay Weatherill and Daniel Andrews, both spending hundreds of millions of our dollars on imported Green diesel to replace our free but ‘dirty’ coal.
30
My neighbour proposed the best way to save the poor polar bears. No penguins.
So move a few to Antarctica where they can munch on penguins. Taste like chicken. It will be a Soon there will be thousands of 3 metre one ton fast and white death machines preventing man doing much on Antarctica. It will be a cuteness face off. Ferocious carnivores against poor little utterly defenceless penguins.
Of course it will not be good for the penguins but the Polar Bears will be saved. That’s the idea, isn’t it?
31
The Huge Polar Bare Omnivare and the small Stinkey FOWL Penguin seem to be on opposite ends of this planet for some reason. Would someone\anyone conjecture as to why that may be? Arrogance abounds!
31
Antarctica had first selection in the animal draft?
30
Nothing lives in Antarctica, a continent with the area of South America and at 4,000 metres. Penguins live around the edges and largely in the ocean. The Polar Bear is nothing more than an adaption of the Brown Bear, hardly a family favorite or pet. Like the Arctic owl, fox, wolf it has white fur. Unfortunately the Arctic melts and temperatures can reach 20C at the North Pole, so the white fur is a serious disadvantage for hunters and they starve in summer, sitting on dirt. So this is all about cuteness, not survival. Polar bears are white and so they are cute. If one lived within a few km of your house, move.
What is fascinating is that penguins are favorite cartoon characters, especially in Japan but do not exist in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly because they are defenceless birds. The Southern Hemisphere is almost entirely water. Even Antarctica is really a 4km thick ocean on top of land. Australia is thus the second most popular destination for Japanese honeymooners after Hawaii and partly because of the tradition of obligation or On, where you have to invite all your relatives. So an Australian wedding is very popular, with a side trip to see the fairy penguins. I wonder if they will be affected by changes to the marriage act?
20
TdeF:
Obviously we will see lots of gay Japanese marrying here and the fairy penguins will come to see them.
30
Wearing tuxedos.
20
there are some penguins north of the equator… not many though.
00
meant to add this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galapagos_penguin
10
Not quite. Certainly rare but latitude -0.77 degrees.
00
Must be fear of those swimming polar bears.
00
Sorry. They do cross the equator to feed
00
Yup, seen ’em. Blue-footed boobys and the iguanas much more speccy.
00
Penguins closer to the equator don’t do much unless you can follow them under water. They jump ashore and find a burrow. They jump in the water. Sea bird colonies, like those of boobies are much more interesting, loud, smelly, tick and lice infested and dirty. Fun!
00
I’m surprised this story never received the scrutiny it deserved .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-12/climate-warming-set-to-change-wind-power-globally-study-shows/9249820
The claim of being able to power all of the eastern seaboard with windmills is farcical and being able to do so because of global warming puts this one in the junk pile .
31
“The land-sea temperature difference in the southern hemisphere is actually increasing because the land is warming up so rapidly relative to the ocean,” he said.
“So the winds are able to derive greater energy from that temperature difference or instability.”
I don’t believe it.
40
Elgordo if I didn’t know any better I’d swear it was an advertisement for the wind turbine companies.
30
That makes two of us that can see, aunty needs to be brought into line.
20
el gordo December 13, 2017 at 8:36 pm
“The land-sea temperature difference in the southern hemisphere is actually increasing because the land is warming up so rapidly relative to the ocean,” he said.“So the winds are able to derive greater energy from that temperature difference or instability.”I don’t believe it.
Ever see an infant frown, strain. then finally poop with huge grinn, ’cause mommy knows I did it! Same thing! 🙂
11
I have faith in Ian Wilson, standing waves are back.
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au
10
even when their costly CAGW policies create the problem, they still whine, and want more money. left a little no-surprise about the writer for the end of the article:
12 Dec: Scotsman: Sarah Beattie-Smith: How high energy bills are making us ill
As winter storms lash Scotland, many of us hunker down and keep cosy indoors. But new statistics show that more than a quarter of households in Scotland will struggle to keep warm this winter.
With fuel poverty now affecting nearly 27 per cent of households, it’s time for the Scottish Government to dramatically increase the level of spending on energy efficiency to make our homes warmer.
According to the Scottish House Conditions Survey, fuel poverty now affects 26.5 per cent or 649,000 households. For the people living in those homes, that means they routinely spend more than ten per cent of their income on heating their home…
The impacts of living in fuel poverty are well documented, ranging from health problems like lung conditions to lower educational attainment…
The good news is that 99,000 households have been lifted out of fuel poverty in the last year, and the number of people affected is now at the lowest level for a decade. The bad news is that we’re back where we started in 2007…
The drop in fuel poverty is largely down to falling energy prices, with only a third of the reduction coming from improvements to the energy efficiency of our homes. And therein lies the challenge for the Scottish Government…
Yet spending on energy efficiency has actually decreased since the Government designated it a National Infrastructure Priority two years ago…
Yet the budget for the current year allocated just £114.5m for energy efficiency…
Consumer groups, fuel poverty charities and environmental organisations are clear that there needs to be a substantial increase in spending on energy efficiency if Scotland is to end the misery of fuel poverty and meet our ambitious climate change targets…
Over the next ten years, we need to see an average of £450m of public money per year to improve the fabric of our homes…
(THE WRITER, Sarah Beattie-Smith is senior climate and energy policy officer at WWF Scotland)
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/sarah-beattie-smith-how-high-energy-bills-are-making-us-ill-1-4636691
00
***Warning: ex-BBC CAGW gate-keeper, Richard Black:
11 Dec: UK Independent: Natural disasters increasingly linked to climate change, new report warns
‘This is a real world analysis of what is actually happening, rather than a projection of what might happen in the future,’ says author ***Richard Black
by Josh Gabbatiss
Researchers from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a non profit organisation that supports debate on climate change and energy issues, analysed 59 studies which looked at climate change and extreme weather.
All had been published since the Paris climate summit two years ago…
They concluded that 41 of the studies demonstrated climate change had made extreme weather events more intense and more long-lived…
“Just a few years ago it was hard to say more about any storm, drought or heatwave than it was ‘consistent with what science predicts’,” said the report’s author, Richard Black, a director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit…
“This is a real world analysis of what is actually happening, rather than a projection of what might happen in the future,” he said. “This report shows that increasingly, [scientists are] finding that specific events are made more likely or more damaging by climate change.”
The effects were most obvious for heatwaves, as the connection between increased general temperatures and increased temperatures during a hot spell are relatively straightforward…
“We’re now finding that for many kinds of extreme weather event, especially heatwaves and extreme rainfall, we can be quite confident about the effect of climate change,” said Dr Friederike Otto, deputy director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, who was not involved in the report.
“This ECIU report shows just how quickly knowledge is accumulating, and I think it’s only going to accelerate.”
Mr Black added: “Two years’ worth of studies shows that climate change is affecting heatwaves, droughts and rainfall right now.”…
The new report comes shortly before another climate summit in Paris…
Soenke Kreft, leader of Munich Climate Insurance Initiative at the United Nations University, who was not involved in the report, said understanding the links between natural disasters and climate change was important…
“Attribution science is an important field of research that has the potential to transform public narratives into more specific prevention measures of risks,” he said. “It also helps to underscore the international responsibilities in supporting the protection of communities by prevention measures and insurance related mechanisms, and providing swift assistance in post disaster situations.”
Mr Black added: “The science shows that the further and faster climate change progresses the larger this effect is likely to be, therefore the best way to restrain this is to curb global emissions.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-natural-disasters-link-increase-global-warming-report-warning-a8103556.html
00
It seems the main aim is to make people cower in fright so the leftists can march in with “solutions”, namly their version of a ‘final solution’ for anyone who disagrees with their lunacy, which is obvious if you understand how their twisted little minds work….
00
Some climate videos to watch.
David Dilley natural climate cycles. One of the few to acknowledge the moon’s orbital precession as a driver of earthquakes, climate and volcanoes. Prediction of cooling after two warming peaks 30/40’s and 80/90’s followed by two decade pause, it is a predictable paytern. Significant cooling on way.
https://youtu.be/w4hbKF5-qUE
Clouds, the sun and cosmic rays and earth’s passage through the galactic arms drive climate. Solar activity effects cosmic ray bombardment of earth as well.
https://youtu.be/ANMTPF1blpQ
NASA and NOAA misrepresentations re arctic ice
https://youtu.be/oatX9E9UB9A
Please provide critique of any of the videos if you find them flawed.
10
All of the Solar system massive bodies continually exchange “power,energy,action between themselves in the form of gravitational, and\or angular momentum forces. The weak electromagnetic coupling EMR radiation remains trivial in comparison.You have been thoroughly scammed by those self appointed academics that claim to know!
21
The weak electromagnetic coupling EMR radiation may or may not become significant at some imaginary ‘tousand light-year distance’, way over yonder. But which way can be ‘over yonder’, when all seems to curve around at increasing velocity?
All the best!-will-
01
My neighbour proposed the best way to save the poor polar bears. No penguins.
BEWARE! Would you like huge carnivorous Penguins much like our wolverine secretary of commerce
20
Polar bears already ate the great auk (Pinguinus impennis) to extinction. 😉
10
Is this how a modern so called first world country operates these days ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-13/energy-regulator-trigger-to-shut-industry-prevent-blackouts/9255434
50
Robert Rosicka –
ridiculous…but money is on offer.
40
And no prize for guessing where that money comes from.
Cheers,
Dave B
00
Industry remains quite flexible in demand for raw power. Give me 6 months to adjust Portland cement production!(huge energy demand) Okay at only 40% capacity. Now just who pays for that plant idle, so politicians can have spectacular Christmas display for 3 hours. Grrr! CHOMP!
40
Most aluminium smelters in Australia and the one in NZ have standing arrangements with incentives to reduce demand for short periods. This has been in place for a long time. In the case of SA, they are running out of industry to offer incentives to reduce demand.
40
AEMO forecast peak demand today:
NSW 13,000 MW (after 11,300 Yesterday) Still forecasting LOR1 reserve shortfall of 400 MW this afternoon.
Qld 7,700 MW
Vic 6,000 MW (after 8,000 yesterday)
SA 1480 MW (after 2,200 yesterday)
Tas 1,000 MW
Total Peak Demand 29,180 MW
10
A week or so back I finally drove in and had a look at the former Kurri Kurri aluminium smelter, Hydro Aluminum.
It’s in the process of being dismantled and was obviously a huge operation.
It felt sad having to drive through the surrounding suburbs with the thought that many workers probably lived there and were out of a job because of the fallout from Man Made Global Warming.
Politicians have a lot to answer for.
KK
00
not invited, but it’s a disgrace he didn’t come!
12 Dec: The Local France: AFP: US absence at Paris climate summit branded ‘a disgrace’
The lack of American leadership in tackling what Obama had termed “an existential threat”, was plain to see at the One Planet Summit in the Frenc capital Tuesday where more than 50 world leaders and dozens of ministers met for talks.
Only Trump and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad were not invited. The American government was represented by the second-ranked diplomat in the Paris embassy who appeared nowhere on the official programme of events.
“It’s very disappointing, it’s worse than disappointing, it’s actually a disgrace when you consider the facts, the science, the common sense, all the work that’s been done,” Kerry told AFP when asked for his thoughts on the US absence…
“It’s 26 years of work that’s being dishonoured by people who don’t even understand the science,” Kerry complained…
“We can’t wait for the White House to wake up. We in America are operating from the grassroots,” California governor Jerry Brown, who has become a leading advocate for emission-cutting efforts, told a panel discussion…
https://www.thelocal.fr/20171212/were-losing-battle-macron-tells-paris-climate-summit-where-us-absence-branded-a-disgrace
lengthy. all the rumours, real or fake, re red team/blue team progress or otherwise:
11 Dec: E&E News: Sources: Trump supports Pruitt’s plan to question science
by Robin Bravender
“Pruitt has not been given authorization to go ahead with red team, blue team; there are still many issues to be ironed out,” another administration official said…
Trump’s public statements — dismissing global warming as a “hoax” invented by the Chinese — indicate that he hasn’t bought into the consensus views about climate science and suggest he may welcome such a debate.
A White House spokeswoman did not respond to requests for comment…
Bob Murray, the CEO of Murray Energy Corp. who’s a key Trump ally on energy issues, said Pruitt told him recently that the red team debate is the first step toward a possible challenge to the endangerment finding.
“They’re laying groundwork for it; they want to do this red, blue study, debate on science before we get there,” Murray said of the endangerment finding. “I said, ‘You need to get it done; if you don’t get it repealed, you’re going to have this climate agenda forever. It needs to be repealed.'”
Myron Ebell, who led the EPA transition team for the Trump administration, sees the red team as a way to help unravel the endangerment finding.
“What we’ve been pushing is that the EPA should grant our petition to reopen the endangerment finding, and they should then put out an advance notice of proposed rulemaking,” said Ebell, who’s the director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
EPA should then begin its climate science critique as part of its plan to re-examine the finding, he added. “That would put the exercise in a legal framework that could then be used consequentially.”…
One line of attack the administration is already facing is that the operation aims to treat the two sides of the debate as equal. That would give the minority of researchers who question mainstream science a bigger platform…
Pruitt was rumored to be considering Steven Koonin, a former Obama administration energy official, to lead the red team effort. Koonin said in an August interview that he’d consider it if certain conditions were met. His participation would allow Republicans to claim bipartisan support.
Koonin said in August that he’s driven by science, not politics.
“I’ve got no dog in the fight about whether [climate change] is the greatest catastrophe that’s facing the planet or this is a nothing burger,” he said. “This is something that is a national issue, and I feel the scientific community has an obligation to see that this is accurately portrayed” …
“The big question in my mind is to what extent the Heartland Institute has the ear of Scott Pruitt,” said Judith Curry, a former professor at the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech whose name has been circulated as a possible red team member. She has said that having Heartland’s name affiliated with the effort detracts from its credibility.
“I hope this is set up with sensible high-level people who are outside the everyday fray of the debate,” she said.
There’s also uncertainty about a possible “blue team” that would defend the mainstream science. Scientists may refuse to participate, arguing that it’s an insincere effort or a waste of time. And the Trump administration may not want those optics…
***The administration could also risk unflattering media coverage from the debate itself. Inflammatory assertions from either side of the debate would undoubtedly generate a flurry of news coverage, which could exacerbate criticisms that the administration isn’t doing enough about climate change or generate intense scrutiny of the researchers picked for the red team.
Even some who welcome the debate say it comes with pitfalls.
“It’s a very complicated thing, and it has to be gotten right or it won’t have credibility and it won’t produce a good product,” said Ebell.
He doesn’t think EPA is the correct agency to lead the charge, he said, suggesting instead that it be situated within the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, where the president’s top science adviser typically works.
But Trump hasn’t nominated a leader for his science shop yet. Pruitt, meanwhile, appears eager to get started.
“It’s something we hope to do,” he told lawmakers last week. “That would be a process where we would focus on objective, transparent, real-time review of questions and answers around the issue of CO2.”
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060068567
***The administration could also risk unflattering media coverage!!! is there any other kind when it comes to Pres Trump?
20
Its a disgrace to miss a talkfest that aoms to lie to the entire planet and enslave humanity ….riiiggghhhhttt….
00
complete rubbish.
12 Dec: CarbonBrief: Germans most worried about climate change, analysis shows
by Jocelyn Timperley
People living in Germany are the most worried about climate change, according to new analysis (LINK) of 18 countries published this week.
The National Centre for Social Research (LINK) (NatCen) examined data collected by the European Social Survey (LINK) on public attitudes to climate change of 16 European countries, Russia and Israel…
Of these 18 countries, it found Germans are the most concerned, with 44% “very or “extremely” worried about climate change. At the other end of the spectrum, just 15% of Poles say they are “very or “extremely” worried…
Meanwhile, 15% of Russians say that the world’s climate is definitely not changing, compared to an average of 3% across all countries included…
The survey also looked at how political orientation and age affects concern about climate change, and how confidence that governments will act to tackle it varies across countries…
The results show a slightly higher proportion of people who consider themselves right-wing believe climate change is not happening compared to those who said they were left wing (5.0% compared to 4.3%)…
***It’s worth noting that the new NatCen analysis did not look at the extent to which those who think climate change is happening consider it to be natural or manmade…
Leo Barasi, co-author of the new report, tells Carbon Brief that differences in question wording can impact the results of polls…
https://www.carbonbrief.org/germans-worried-climate-change-analysis-shows
00
13 Dec: CarbonPulse: COMMENT: The Australian government is miscounting greenhouse emissions reductions
By Tim Baxter, University of Melbourne
(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Disclosure: Aspects of this research funded by Australian Research Council Discovery Grant DP1200101485 entitled Carbon Offsets: Regulation for Success)
The Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF), established in 2014 with funding of A$2.55 billion, is mostly spent. With just A$200 million left to be allocated, the Climate Change Authority this week released a report on the fund’s progress (LINK) that can be best described as magnanimous.
The federal government claims that 189 million tonnes of emissions have been diverted or prevented from entering the atmosphere under the scheme. But research I have done with a co-author from Melbourne Law School has found serious issues, from giving unnecessary funds, to counting decade-old projects as new emissions “reductions”.
While the Authority made 26 recommendations for improvement, each is relatively low-impact. Most of the recommendations go towards increasing the fund’s transparency or removing barriers to participation. While these are laudable aims, there are deeper problems…
The fund is unique in Australia’s climate policy, in that the legislation that supports it has strong bipartisan support. Even if a change of federal government leads to a new policy for curbing emissions, it’s very likely that the basic ERF structure will be carried forward…READ ON
http://carbon-pulse.com/44720/
00
13 Dec: Fox News: Amy Lieu: California fire in Bel-Air traced to illegal cooking at homeless camp, officials say
The Associated Press contributed to this report
An illegal cooking fire at a homeless encampment sparked a wildfire in Bel-Air last week, authorities said Tuesday.
The Skirball fire erupted last Wednesday, burning more than 400 acres, destroying six structures and damaging 12 others. It is now 85 percent contained, with nearly 70 firefighters still working for full containment, officials told the Los Angeles Times (LINK)…
The encampment was in a canyon several hundred feet from Interstate 405 and hidden from passing cars, the Times reported.
The fire was not deliberately set, investigators told the newspaper. They have not found any of the people who lived there, as the camp was largely destroyed, leaving officials with little evidence. The Los Angeles Fire Department found no suspects, and the size of the encampment before the fire was unclear, the report said.
The remnants of the site included a burned portable stove, pot, cheese grater, and fuel canisters, according to the newspaper. The camp was one of many makeshift communities that have developed along freeways, rivers and open spaces throughout Los Angeles.
Paul Koretz, a Los Angeles City Council member whose district includes Bel-Air, told the Times that this “makes a tragedy even more tragic.”
“The saddest thing is that we have so many homeless people,” he said. “And they are everywhere in the city. And that sometimes causes serious problems.”
Humans are usually the cause of fires in Southern California, through sources such as car crashes, faulty farm equipment, cigarette butts or camping fires, officials told the Times.
Ninety percent of wildfires nationwide are human-caused, the Los Angeles Daily News reported, citing the National Park Service…
Causes were still undetermined for the Creek, Rye and Lilac fires, the Los Angeles Daily News reported.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/12/13/california-fire-in-bel-air-traced-to-illegal-cooking-at-homeless-camp-officials-say.html
10
-15C mentioned again, adding “the coldest December 11th night for 176 years”
the Mirror article is dated 13 Dec. the two photo captions below do not name the -15C location; Shawbury is supposed to be the -13C location, but could -15C be from the previous night? no clue in the article:
13 Dec: UK Mirror: UK weather: Snow and ice set to hit large parts of Britain TODAY causing Met Office to issue warning
Forecasters said ice will be seen on some roads from this afternoon and wintry showers will begin to spread from the west
By Danya Bazaraa
A ‘severe weather’ warning is telling people to stay aware, with a map outlining a vast area of the UK set to be affected – across the midlands and up into the whole of the north of England.
***It comes after Monday night, December 11, saw the mercury plunge to -15C, the coldest December 11th night for 176 years…
PHOTO CAPTION: Monday night was the coldest December 11 in 176 years.
PHOTO CAPTION: Shawbury in Shropshire was recorded as being the coldest place in the country last night
A ‘Polar Vortex’ is heading for Britain as we get closer to Christmas, with some forecasters saying we could see lows of -17C this winter…
The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze said: “Lows down to -17C in Scotland are possible this winter if Arctic air arrives and high pressure builds for a week or two.
“Even southern England could see down to -13C.”…
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-snow-ice-set-11686738
11 Dec: NBC2: Rob Duns: Weather Blog: Naples sets record low max temp
Naples, Florida warmed up to only 59 degrees this afternoon, making it the coldest daytime high temperature on record for December 10th.
The previous record was a high of 61 degrees set on December 10, 1981.
Official records for the city are kept by the National Weather Service office in Miami. Temperature records for the city go back to 1942…
Fort Lauderdale also set a new record low max temperature warming to 62 degrees on Sunday afternoon. The old record for the city was a high of 63 degrees recorded in 1981, the same year Naples set its record.
Cold temperatures, though not impossible in Southwest Florida in December, are rare. The average high in Fort Myers this time of year is 77 degrees, with an average low of 57 degrees. However, given the weather pattern North America is locked into, there won’t be much of a change in the coming days. Daytime highs will likely only range from the mid to upper 60s in Southwest Florida on Monday, with overnight low temperatures ranging from the 30s inland, to mid 40s on the coastline.
http://www.nbc-2.com/story/37036018/weather-blog-naples-sets-record-low-max-temp
00
Macron said being able to change one’s mind is the mark of a “smart, confident, honest person.”
It seems that quote can cut both ways, or is he preparing in case he is forced to change his mind.
50
““It’s not the outliers we need to worry about; it’s the out-and-out liars.” ”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/13/in-an-attempt-to-prove-climate-change-creates-more-severe-weather-scientists-resort-to-p-hacking/#comment-2692145
20
This is seriously off-topic, even for an ‘unthreaded’.
At WUWT, I posted under my moniker in the “Tips and Notes” section (947 entries as of today; it should be close to the bottom). It might be an interesting read, especially if you are involved in the realm of education, or have concerns about education.
Please hit me back here if you have any thoughts on the subject (or if I should just go mind my own business … … … )
Vlad
20
Fascinating. I’ve pasted the post into a request for feedback from some likely mavens.
20
Thank you. I’m still in a state of shock over this. It’s not just implications for my own job (even though I’m about 10 years, give-or-take, from retirement [I’m 68 now, but cannot quit working due to poor decisions I made in my youth …]), but the more important implications for society in general.
I appreciate your assistance. I fully expected to be told, “Get STUFFED!!!”
Regards,
Vlad
00
The end is near, apparently ….
ADAM SAGE
The world is losing the battle to curtail global warming, Emmanuel Macron has told more than 50 heads of state.
20
“France just gave $70 million to 13 scientists to continue promoting climate alarm, and $0 dollars to scientists who tell the truth about climate.
That is how you create consensus.
Anyone who wants money says what politicians want them to say. Same story for the past 25 years.”
Steve Goddard, twitter:
https://twitter.com/SteveSGoddard/status/940929179679301634
20
“France just gave $70 million to 13 scientists to continue promoting climate alarm, and $0 dollars to scientists who tell the truth about climate.
That is how you create consensus.
Anyone who wants money says what politicians want them to say. Same story for the past 25 years.”
Steve Goddard, twitter:
https://twitter.com/SteveSGoddard/status/940929179679301634
00
2004: Frost will become less and less common across much of the world as global warming accelerates, U.S. researchers reported.
http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-reuters270804.htm
2014: Severe frosts will be more frequent due to man-made greenhouse gas
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/severe-frosts-will-be-more-frequent-due-to-man-made-greenhouse-gas-scientists/161855
2017: Not just heat: even our spring frosts can bear the fingerprint of climate change
https://theconversation.com/not-just-heat-even-our-spring-frosts-can-bear-the-fingerprint-of-climate-change-89029
Science, unsettled.
40
***sympathy and empathy for the homeless:
13 Dec: LA Times: Bel-Air wrestles with homeless crisis after encampment fire destroys multimillion-dollar homes
By Makeda Easter, Gale Holland and Makeda Easter
“I really ***sympathize and empathize with these people,” said Craig Conner, 53. “If my house were one of the six that burned down, maybe I’d be more angry,” he added.
Nickie Miner, vice president of the Bel Air-Beverly Crest Neighborhood Council, said residents have long worried about the fire hazard from hillside homeless encampments, but “all the agencies’ hands seemed to be tied.”
“We knew it was only going to be a matter of time before something horrible happened,” Miner said.
Miner said she was skeptical of the proposed campaign to educate homeless people about fire risks. Los Angeles needs a massive regulatory overhaul like the one that followed the 1961 Bel-Air fire, she said, which should include eliminating hillside encampments…
Photos taken of the Sepulveda encampment in September and shared with The Times showed a cluster of green and olive tarpaulins stretched across a canyon, partially hidden by treetops and brush.
The camp is “a little obscure,” Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority spokesman Tom Waldman said. An outreach team had not visited the ravine for at least a few months and possibly as long as a year, he said…
http://beta.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-bel-air-fire-homeless-20171213-story.html
note: Bel Air is a neighborhood in the Westside area of Los Angeles, California, in the foothills of the Santa Monica Mountains.
no sympathy and empathy for Rupert Murdoch:
8 Dec: New Scientist: Will wildfires finally change Rupert Murdoch’s climate stance?
The media-mogul’s Santa Monica vineyard was saved from wildfire destruction, but the world may yet burn thanks to his climate views, says Richard Schiffman
By Richard Schiffman
The media-mogul’s palatial house was saved, thanks to firefighters who spent the afternoon and night battling the conflagration. Others weren’t so lucky. Hundreds of homes and scores of lives have been lost in both northern and southern California in a spate of recent wildfires that were fiercer and moved faster than any in recent memory.
Such fires are made more likely as the world warms. California has just had its hottest summer on record, and the recent wildfires came much later in the year than normal. We also know that seven of California’s 10 largest recorded wildfires have occurred in the last 14 years.
California isn’t alone. Wildfires are occurring with greater…(To continue reading this premium article, subscribe for unlimited access)
https://www.newscientist.com/article/will-wildfires-finally-change-rupert-murdochs-climate-stance/
00
re New Scientist writer, Richard Schiffman:
3 Nov: New Scientist: Europe and the US were most responsible for deadly heatwave
A severe heatwave has been attributed to man-made climate change – and for the first time we can also identify the countries whose emissions are most responsible.
Friederike Otto of the University of Oxford, UK and her colleagues studied a heatwave that struck Argentina in 2013/14. The heatwave brought some of the highest temperatures ever recorded in the nation’s capital Buenos Aires, killing many and collapsing the city’s power grid…
“Anthropogenic climate change made the Argentinian heatwave approximately five times more likely,” says Otto.
The next step was to determine which countries were responsible
Climate justice
Otto’s team calculated how much carbon dioxide each country had emitted between 1850, the dawn of the industrial era, and 2013. They found that the European Union (including the UK) contributed the most to making the heatwave more likely. The EU was followed by the US, China and the rest of Asia. South America, where the heatwave occurred, came in fifth.
This arguably underplays the role of Western nations. That is because the emissions from manufacturing a product are attributed to the country where the product was made, rather than where it was consumed. While emissions from countries like China and India are increasing, the goods manufactured there are often consumed in affluent countries…
However, it is unlikely that Western nations will be made to pay up to pay damages for fouling the atmosphere anytime soon…
Instead, co-author Myles Allen, also at the University of Oxford, wants to take the world’s biggest emitters to court for their role in causing climate change…
Journal reference: Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3419 (behind paywall: Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events)(LINK)
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2152327-europe-and-the-us-were-most-responsible-for-deadly-heatwave/#.WfzjXvA4CMV.twitter
Yale e360: Richard Schiffman reports on the environment and health for a variety of publications that include The New York Times, Scientific American, the Atlantic and Yale Environment 360.
Articles include:
As Seas Rise, Tropical Pacific Islands Face a Perfect Storm
A Close-Up Look at the Catastrophic Bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef
Guardian bio: Richard Schiffman is an environmental journalist whose work has appeared in the Washington Post, NPR, the New York Times, Reuters and elsewhere.
Articles include:
Think the new (IPCC) climate report is scary? The food-pocalypse is already upon us
Harassment of climate scientists needs to stop
Are Republicans anti-science? In this case, yes
Atlantic: Richard Schiffman articles include:
2013: What Leading Scientists Want You to Know About Today’s Frightening Climate Report
“We have five minutes before midnight.”
The Southwest’s Forests May Never Recover from Megafires
“Abnormal” fire risks have become the new normal.
—
Schiffman’s self-description on his Twitter page: “Journalist, lover of the Earth”
drain the MSM swamp.
50
the CAGW mob will exploit anyone and everyone for their cause:
9 Dec: Guardian: Steven W Thrasher: Ventura county is burning. My hometown is climate change’s latest victim
Affordable housing has been lost to the California wildfires, leaving poor people without homes – and without hope of help from federal government
I am terribly worried about the economic suffering these fires are causing. An entire apartment complex destroyed in Ventura contained some of the only affordable housing in the city: will what replaces it also be made affordable and available to the displaced, or will disaster capitalism replace it with multimillion-dollar condos? …
They, too, are victims of climate change…
In 2012, I got to see what climate change looked like wet, when the city of my adult life, New York, was deluged by Hurricane Sandy…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/08/fire-raging-ventura-county-climate-change-victims
20
How much of the recent Californian fires can be sheeted home to the extensive growth of eucalypts, therein?
Nothing in the press reports about this possible factor!
50
Bioscience paper and starving polar bear follow-up
00
Upthread there was a link regarding American “climate scientists” following the money to France.
One name looked familiar and it made think of Jim Steele.
Camille Parmesan
20
Wonder how they’ll stand up to French sarcasm?
10
I wonder how they will deal with the cost of living in France.
Ooops
00
13 Dec: UK Telegraph: Jillian Ambrose: Russia to send first Arctic gas cargo to Britain in the wake of supply crisis
Britain has emerged as the unlikely first recipient of gas from a sanctioned Russian project after fears of a winter supply crisis drove prices close to five year highs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the £20bn Yamal project on Russia’s northern coastline last week…
Now a deal has been struck to bring the debut cargo from Yamal to the Isle of Grain import terminal via a specially built ice-breaking tanker by the end of the month…
Britain rarely receives deliveries of liquid natural gas (LNG) in winter because prices are typically far higher in east Asian markets. However rocketing demand in Europe drove the price for gas delivered to the UK to more than $10 per million British thermal units. This put the UK on a par with Asian gas markets, which are some of the most expensive in the world.
Around 40pc of the UK’s domestic supplies have been wiped out until the new year due to the emergency shutdown of the North Sea’s Forties pipeline, operated by Ineos. Supply from Europe has also been constrained by the explosion at a hub in Austria and technical problems in the Norwegian North Sea…
The booming cost of locking in gas deliveries during a major supply squeeze and freezing weather could still have serious consequences for energy users.
Energy suppliers are typically forced to raise prices to cover higher costs, and smaller suppliers without the financial wriggle room may even face an existential risk as they battle to buy extra gas at short notice.
Major industrial users are also expected to suffer due to the higher cost of gas…
Already Asian gas buyers have raised their offers for gas to $10.50/MMbtu in response to the European gas market shock…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/13/russia-send-first-arctic-gas-cargo-britain-wake-supply-crisis/
00
Dodged a few bolts in my time. Weather still keeps trying to kill me even though I’m retired now.
airline employees hit by lightning
00
behind paywall:
NAB opens new investment pathway into renewables
The Australian-11 hours ago
Australia is in the middle of a $8bn investment boom as local and international developers rush to meet the 2020 renewable energy target of 23 per cent of generation from wind and solar. But there have been slim pickings for investors with no access for such projects to public debt markets and renewables projects at major energy retailers such as AGL Energy and Origin Energy mingled in with a coal-heavy generation fleets. NAB chief customer officer, corporate & institutional banking, ***Mike Baird, said the bank would remain the principal lender to the projects and hoped to free up further lending capacity through the fund. “There is a lot of interest in it and it allows us to provide an additional source of funding,” Mr Baird said…
***hmmm:
Premium NAB salary for ***ex-NSW premier Mike Baird
The Australian-14 Nov. 2017
Former NSW premier Mike Baird took home nearly $900,000 for his first five months at National Australia Bank, which he joined in April this year. Mr Baird, who quit state politics in January to spend time with his family, took up the role of NAB’s chief customer officer of its corporate and institutional bank.
00
13 Dec: Vox: Some Republicans are reconsidering the tax bill’s attack on renewable energy
Lawmakers from states where wind and solar energy are booming want to preserve tax breaks for these industries.
By Umair Irfan
Both the House and Senate versions of the Republican tax bill now include provisions that would serioulsy threaten the wind and solar industries. The hemming and hawing over them is meanwhile also stalling more than $20 billion in investment in clean energy, according to Democratic lawmakers who oppose the cuts.
But here’s the catch: wind and solar are booming not just in deep blue states like California, but also in red states like Texas, Wyoming, Kansas, and Iowa.
Texas, Wyoming, Kansas, and Colorado have become leaders in renewable energy and also benefit from federal incentives for electric cars and home efficiency upgrades that could be cut under the bill.
And so as the Senate gets closer to a final vote, some Republicans are becoming squeamish about allowing those provisions through as they weigh their desire to cut taxes against wind and solar jobs for their constituents…
The Senate version of the Republican tax bill undermines investment in wind and solar power, which now generate 7 percent of our electricity, while preserving billions in tax subsidies for fossil energy…READ ON FOR DETAILS
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/13/16768074/tax-bill-renewable-energy-wind-solar-credits
10
Big day for power consumption yesterday, so first real test, and all worked out fine. Almost made it to 30000MW.
Another big day today, also going close to 30000MW, and 26000MW now, with NSW consuming the most again, as per usual really.
Interesting to watch the interchange of power between the States.
Tasmania supplying into Victoria.
Victoria then supplying into SouthAus and NSW, and Queensland also supplying into NSW, as always.
Currently (at around 11AM Thursday 14Dec2017) NSW is consuming 10920MW. 200MW is coming from Victoria, and 1150MW from Queensland. Wind and Solar are at 580MW. Coal fired power is at 8200MW (75% of the total) and the rest, around 800MW is coming from Natural gas and Hydro. (Hydro – 280MW)
It seems that the AEMO has a good handle on all of this, contrary to what he SouthAus Premier said, stating that the AEMO were complacent and dropped the ball.
Bayswater Unit One came back online overnight, fortuitously, after its Upgrade, and is heading back towards Max power right now. So now, almost in the nick of time, there are only three coal fired Units offline across the whole of Australia. It seems that when REAL electrical power generation is needed, there is no substitute for coal fired power.
Incidentally, AGL (we’re getting out of coal) at the current prices, is making, (just from the sale of its generated power) $540,000 an hour from its 12 coal fired Units. Nice little earner eh! It works out to around $10 Million PLUS per day.
Tony.
40
Does this mean NSW will end up be the most vulnerable state once Liddell power station is shut down? It would be so ironic given NSW is the only LNP state of the lot.
10
Having watched the AEMO now on a daily basis for six Months, it’s given me a whole new insight into power generation.
It’s easy to see why the availability of power is taken so much for granted, without the faintest understanding of just what that actually takes.
There probably won’t be blackouts or even rationing, with areas turned off, as there seems to be enough power to go around, but it’s a very tricky business and one the AEMO gets no credit for, just sniping from politicians who have everything to lose and look for an easy target, one which cannot fight back.
Having said that there’s enough power to go around, that does not mean no new coal fired power. Those Units shut down in the last few years should have actually been replaced by new plants, not just shut down to appease a fraction of people.
And now we have plants getting older and moving closer to their use by date, and real effort should be put in to replacing them ….. with like for like.
It’s got to the stage now where three States look like they are heading for trouble.
South Australia is on a who really cares basis, as they only consume around 6% of all power, and oddly, I’ve noticed a drop in that overall percentage since Holdens closed down.
However, It’s Victoria, and NSW which show signs of stress. Both of those States need new large scale power (constant and reliable) generation, and while the system is coping, the South Australian ‘experiment’ cannot be implemented in States with way, way larger consumption than SouthAus.
Victoria need a new plant as does NSW, and perhaps a further one for North Queensland.
Having watched AEMO and sites showing actual generation, coal fired power actually is being utilised as Load Following, long used as the excuse that new coal fired power should not be put in, because it can’t follow the Load. It is.
The AEMO and the plant operators ARE utilising coal fired power to follow the load, so, if they are doing it already, then new plants will also do just that as well.
Things are working now, but it will only become more difficult.
The average person just takes it for granted that because it’s always there, then it always will be there.
They’re not using less power these days for some obscure CO2 supposed problem. They’re actually consuming more power, and that power just HAS to be there, and be there all the time, and that can only come from plants which can generate, and supply those huge amounts of power.
A new plant takes at least five to seven years to get up and running, so this should have been happening years ago, let alone happening now. It’s not even a thought bubble now, so when the time comes, it will already have been five to ten years too late.
Tony.
70
Several reports on call in radio (The Money Program) on weds from Vic consumers using Smart Meters who said that had recieved Text messages from their power supplier advising of imminent staged power cuts during peak demand periods to secure main grid supplies.
Some said it has happened several times this week.
I guess this is the “Demand Management”. program in action ?
20
The tip of the Agenda21 iceberg in action….
10
I take it then the answer to my question is “probably”. Thank you TonyfromOz.
10
Tony, some interesting variations in total generation this afternoon – almost like a saw tooth – seems to be replicated in hydro generation. Wonder if there is some cuts to demand occurring to manage peak demand.
00
G’day Tony,
Origin Energy has just announced its intention to close Eraring by 2032. At least it’s given a decent lead time.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/origin-aims-to-halve-emissions-by-2030s-20171214-p4yxpg.html?btis
Goodbye 2880 megawatts.
Cheers,
Dave B
00
The wind is howling.
It’s howling WTF?
Ontario
https://screenshots.firefox.com/nMpxWiZwRohZd4ul/cns-snc.ca
10
I didn’t realize Canada had so much power generated from nuclear. Makes Australia look even more stupid and backward.
10
13 Dec: EurActiv: Corporate giants urge EU to back 35% renewables target
By Frédéric Simon
“A strong investment signal is key to further positioning industries with large investment potential in supporting Europe’s clean energy goals,” write the signatories of the declaration, which includes big corporate names like Amazon, Microsoft, Ikea, Unilever, Dupont and Philips.
“Signatories of this declaration therefore urge member states to support a renewable energy target of at least 35% by 2030,” they write in a letter published on Wednesday (13 December)(LINK).
The appeal was launched by corporate groups including the RE100 (LINK), a coalition of multinational companies committed to 100% renewable electricity, and the World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD).
It comes ahead of a key Council meeting next Monday, where EU energy ministers will discuss a proposed target to source 27% of the bloc’s energy from renewable sources by 2030…
Crucially, the coalition has called on ministers to lift regulatory barriers to the development of corporate renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs), which they claim can play a key role in the clean energy transition…
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/corporate-giants-urge-eu-to-back-35-renewables-target/
00
The sky is fallingggggggg!!!
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/the-environmental-protection-authority-is-asleep-on-the-biggest-job-of-all-20171212-h036cj.html
CO2 = EPA enforcable pollution, and other fairy dust nonsense…..
The EPA got a biff in the nose in the USA for trying this, of course we wouldnt be that dumb, would we, after seeing what happened in the USA after Trump drained that swamp?
31
I initially misread this bit:
For a second or two I thought it was referring to green plants. After all most plants do emit a not too insignificant amount of CO2 during the night. Are they proposing to fine plants and flowers too? What about humans who breath? That article is a perfect example of how the CAGW crowd are completely insane.
30
It was interesting to read the comments on the article, and indeed very informative .
From “Lucy” I learned that household solar is the main daytime energy source for the whole of Australia.
Wow , not the impression that I usually get from other commentators on this site:
Quote from Lucy :
-“Went to the annual Solar Oration talk at ANU this year. Great talk. Take away is that, thanks to solar, peak time on the network is now first thing in the morning and last thing at night, not middle of the day as it used to be. 80% of Australia’s daytime energy usage now comes courtesy of solar and mainly because of household roof tops.”-
10
excellent article, but Hayward may be over-stating when he writes: “(wind energy) can reliably produce electricity ***only about 50 percent of the time”:
13 Dec: MinneapolisStarTribune: The high cost of our failing wind policies
Why Minnesota’s electricity costs are above the U.S. average and emissions are rising.
By Steven F. Hayward
(Steven F. Hayward is the senior resident scholar in the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, and co-author of “Energy Policy in Minnesota: The High Cost of Failure” for the Center of the American Experiment)
Like many states, Minnesota is on the bandwagon for renewable energy, especially wind power. Despite all of the hype about falling wind power costs, Minnesota’s energy policy is starting to exert upward pressure on electricity prices, and it is notably failing at its chief objectives…
Minnesota has met its political mandate of supplying 15 percent of electricity from renewable sources, but the effects of this target are disappointing and worrisome for the future.
First, Minnesota’s notable electricity cost advantage has disappeared. For most of the last 25 years, Minnesota’s electricity prices were about 20 percent below the national average. But over the last five years — when renewable capacity was expanded at a fast pace — Minnesota’s cost advantage has rapidly disappeared, and in March for the very first time Minnesota’s electricity prices rose above the national average.
This has happened at a time when electricity use has been flat, so the price pressure has not come from increased demand. If Minnesota’s historic price advantage had stayed within its historic range, Minnesota consumers would have saved $4 billion…
Second, the real embarrassment is that renewable energy is not achieving significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Between 2005 and 2014, Minnesota’s CO2 emissions fell 6.6 percent (and much of this reduction was achieved by greater use of natural gas, not wind), while the nation as a whole reduced CO2 emissions by 9.3 percent. In fact, over the last two years, greenhouse gas emissions from electricity in Minnesota have risen, even as more wind power was installed. This is not unusual. Recently the New York Times reported that although Germany has spent $200 billion subsidizing renewable energy over the last 20 years, its greenhouse gas emissions are the same as a decade ago, and they have also started rising again over the last two years. Oh, and German electricity rates have doubled during that time, despite the heavy subsidies.
The reason wind power is failing to deliver significant reductions in CO2 emissions is that wind power is intermittent. It can reliably produce electricity ***only about 50 percent of the time. But the electricity grid has to be at full strength 100 percent of the time, so wind power has to be backed up with conventional sources. Minnesota’s wind power is lowest when demand is highest — in the middle of summer. And the shortfall in summer wind production is being backstopped primarily by coal-fired electricity. This ought to be a matter of embarrassment for green-energy advocates, but most of them are blissfully unaware of this fact.
Very little wind power would be built without lavish federal subsidies…
Minnesota’s renewable energy policy should rightly be thought of as “crony energy,” and persisting with it risks higher costs for consumers and instability in the grid. The federal government ought to end the wind subsidies (they have tried a few times in the past, but the wind energy lobby keeps them going), and Minnesota should drop its mandates and allow an undistorted market to guide its energy investments.
http://www.startribune.com/the-high-cost-of-our-failing-wind-policies/464005143/
10
14 Dec: Canada’s Oil Capital Is Making the Leap Toward Renewable Energy
By Kevin Orland
Alberta auctions 595 megawatts of wind-generation capacity
Province seeks 30% of its energy from renewables by 2030
The government of Alberta — home to the world’s third-largest oil reserves — on Wednesday auctioned off 595 megawatts of renewable energy capacity to be built in the province. That exceeded the government’s target of 400 megawatts…
The process marks a major step for Alberta — Canada’s largest consumer of coal and its second-largest producer of the fuel — in its efforts to transition to all renewable and gas-fired generation by 2030…
The process marks a major step for Alberta — Canada’s largest consumer of coal and its second-largest producer of the fuel — in its efforts to transition to all renewable and gas-fired generation by 2030.
The weighted average bid was 3.7 Canadian cents (3 U.S. cents) a kilowatt-hour, the lowest price for wind power ever in Canada. Developers agreed to sell power for 8.5 Canadian cents a kilowatt-hour in an Ontario procurement last year…
Alberta’s government, controlled by the left-leaning New Democratic Party, has sought to balance efforts to curb climate change while not harming the province’s major industry. Alberta’s oil sands contain the world’s third-largest stores of crude, with proven reserves of about 165.4 billion barrels, and produced about 2.5 million barrels of crude bitumen last year, roughly the same oil output as the entire country of Mexico.
Coal is also a major industry in Alberta. The province consumes about two-thirds of the fuel used in Canada for generating electricity, according to the nation’s natural resources department. Alberta has 6,457 megawatts of coal-fired generating capacity, more than four times the 1,530 megawatts in second-place Saskatchewan.
The province also accounted for 42 percent of Canada’s coal production last year, according to government estimates. Alberta was expected to produce 27.5 million tons of coal this year, according to the province’s energy regulator…
Notley credits the Climate Leadership Plan with helping the province secure federal government approval for Kinder Morgan Inc.’s expansion of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline as well as Enbridge Inc.’s expansion of its Line 3 conduit. Both projects have been seen as key supports for the oil sands…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-13/canada-s-oil-capital-is-making-leap-toward-renewable-energy
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I arrived here in Wellington NZ this afternoon and it’s hot. It must be global warming because the taxi driver agreed that was the most likely cause.
KK
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China is going renewable but they are running a little behind time.
‘An action plan released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in August set goals to replace coal with clean energy by the end of October in 3 million households in 28 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and in Shanxi, Shandong and Henan provinces.
‘In an urgent circular released on Dec 7, the top environmental authority said areas that have not yet completed projects to replace coal with gas or electric heat may now use coal or any other available measures as a stopgap measure.’
China Daily
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They are eliminating coal burning in households because of the smog problem.
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13 Dec: Toronto Sun: Lorrie Goldstein: Trudeau breaks his promise on carbon pricing
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau misled Canadians when he promised his national carbon pricing plan would be revenue neutral for the federal government.
As a report by the independent, non-partisan Parliamentary Budget Officer Jean-Denis Frechette confirmed Tuesday, Trudeau’s government is already raking in hundreds of millions of dollars annually from provincial carbon pricing, even before his mandatory national carbon pricing plan kicks in next year.
That’s because of the 5% federal Goods and Services Tax, a broad-based consumption tax charged to the final amount of goods and services.
Because carbon pricing, regardless of whether done through a carbon tax or cap and trade, raises the cost of goods and services, the application of the GST to those higher prices provides Ottawa with an entirely new revenue stream.
Thus, when Trudeau’s national carbon pricing plan kicks in next year, his government will, in short order, be raking in billions of dollars from carbon pricing.
As Conservative MP Mark Warawa and several provinces have rightly noted, that flies in the face of Trudeau’s promise his national carbon price will be revenue neutral for his government…READ ON
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/goldstein-trudeau-breaks-his-promise-on-carbon-pricing
9 Dec: EDITORIAL: Virginia doesn’t need cap and trade
BY THE EDITORIAL PAGE STAFF OF THE FREE LANCE-STAR
At Governor Terry McAuliffe’s direction, Virginia’s Air Pollution Control Board recently granted preliminary approval for a cap-and-trade scheme that would severely limit carbon dioxide emissions from most of the power plants in the commonwealth.
Starting in 2020, the board unanimously agreed to cap carbon emissions 30 percent by 2030. In addition, Virginia would join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, “a cooperative effort among the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont to cap and reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector.”
But cap and trade is a discredited idea that won’t result in cleaner air, though it will result in higher electric bills for state residents…
The European Union’s highly publicized 2005 Emission Trading Scheme proved to be a spectacular failure. Not only did it fail to significantly reduce emissions, it became a “magnet for tax fraud on a grand scale,” costing European governments an estimated €5 billion euros, according to a 2009 article in the EU Observer…
An investigation by Europol also found that that up to “90 percent of the entire market volume on emissions exchanges was caused by fraudulent activity.”…
California’s state-based cap-and-trade scheme has already cost companies there about $5 billion and added 11 cents to the price of a gallon of gasoline since the state-run auctions for permits began in 2012, according to the Sacramento Bee.
The newspaper also noted that while greenhouse gas emissions declined about 1.5 percent in 2015, “analysts say other, lesser-known programs are the main reason why.”…
Then there’s the “leakage” problem, and it’s not only limited to cap-and-trade states’ inability to prevent their cleaner air from blowing away.
“So long as these so-called cap-and-trade programs are limited to certain states and countries, citizens can migrate to avoid the costs,” Libecap points out.
And since Virginia would be the only Southern state to impose cap and trade, which is in effect a major energy tax, it would put the commonwealth at a competitive disadvantage in attracting new companies, which are the key to creating economic growth.
The plan is now subject to public comment before the board approves a final version. But the failure of cap and trade in both Europe and California suggests that Virginia needs to take a different approach.
http://www.fredericksburg.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-virginia-doesn-t-need-cap-and-trade/article_41e70338-9aa0-59e3-9a79-3f494a30f7c9.html
reminder re long-time Clinton insider, Gov Terry McAuliffe:
28 Nov: Politico: Chinese investors sue McAuliffe, Rodham over green-car investments
The suit is the latest headache for the Virginia governor as he mulls a presidential bid.
Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe and former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s brother Anthony Rodham are facing a $17 million fraud lawsuit from Chinese investors in Greentech Automotive, an electric car company that appears to be struggling to survive.
A group of 32 Chinese citizens filed the suit last week in Fairfax County, Virginia court, claiming that they were swindled out of about $560,000 apiece as a result of misrepresentations made by McAuliffe and Rodham—two of the most prominent and politically connected proponents of the venture aimed at manufacturing electric cars in the U.S.
McAuliffe confirmed last year that his business dealings with foreign nationals were under investigation by the FBI and federal prosecutors…
As brother-in-law of President Bill Clinton and as brother of the then-secretary of state—Rodham appeared to serve as a means of attracting Chinese interest in the project…
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comment in moderation re: 13 Dec: Toronto Sun: Lorrie Goldstein: Trudeau breaks his promise on carbon pricing
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Next year is the 30th anniversary of the setting up of the IPCC.
The occasion should not pass unnoticed.
30 years of ridiculous doomsday predictions.
I intend to research every one made at that time and compare it with today’s reality.
It’ll be like spitting into the wind, but I’ll then send a letter to every newspaper I can
think of.
It’ll be enjoyable I’m sure.
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Not sure if any of the so called predictions have come true .
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07 December 2017
Investigation finds Swedish scientists committed scientific misconduct
Probe centered on controversial paper that claimed microplastic pollution harms fish.
“After other researchers raised questions about data availability and details of the experiments, Uppsala conducted an initial investigation and found no evidence of misconduct.
However, an expert group of Sweden’s Central Ethical Review Board, which was also tasked with vetting the study, concluded in April 2017 that Lönnstedt and Eklöv “have been guilty of scientific misconduct…
the board finds Lönnstedt guilty of having intentionally fabricated data; it alleges that Lönnstedt did not conduct the experiments during the period”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08321-2
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