JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
I hope everyone had a Happy Christmas! Best Wishes to All. Annie.
151
A red thumb for that!? Happy Christmas poor dear Red Thumb 🙂
142
Annie:
My question in comment No. 8 applies. Either you have been red thumbed by a poorly written program or a very dumb troll. Hard to tell them apart.
52
A belated Merry Christmas and Happy New Year and here’s something to encourage the climate worriers to rotate on their thumbs: https://scitechdaily.com/how-cosmic-rays-from-supernovae-influence-earths-cloud-cover/.
40
Presume that means 10 degrees C and not 100 degrees C (as I first read it.
30
Some grandchildren joined us on Christmas Eve. One, an early 20s lady, is about 6ft 3in in old terms, with beautiful teeth. Made me wonder how much humans, like vegetation, are growing better with extra CO2 in the air.
Has anyone seen such studies? Geoff.
71
Well there is a Russian doctor who developed a breathing method based on co2. We should breath through our nose to retain co2 so perhaps there is a link?
60
For many years asthma was a major problem for me. Then I got new medication that worked. I was aware of a Russian doctor who advocated higher levels of CO2, maybe even bought his book, but never read it properly.
In all those years I never realised that the problem with asthma is not with breathing in, it is with breathing out. It is hard to know why, when it is so bleeding obvious once you know it.
These days i rarely need to use medication, but sometimes when I go to bed and feel a need for it, I have found that taking a few seconds to exhale fully seems to make the problem go away.
Not a clinical trial, mind you, but it makes me wonder how different things might have been in earlier times had I had worked on that principle.
90
He was saying we evolved during low o2 high co2 environment so evolved to breathe through our mouths to get rid of all excess co2, now its the opposite. Mouth breathing lowers co2 levels far too low so nose breathing is required to maintain enough co2 in our system to allow o2/co2 gas exchange from blood to cells etc
50
This raises another interesting point all primates have the rh+ve factor which is a protein coating on the red cell this is the primary mechanism for the gas exchange.
However 10% of humans don’t have this protein rh-ve science has no idea why or how this is so nor how it works.
40
I went to one of the Buteyko sessions and was quite sceptical. That is mainly because of the negative comments made about pharmaceutical such as Seretide.
The RH negative aspect is interesting. I have had some sort of breathing issue all my life. Recently it has been diagnoses as Bronchiectasis. This creates a vulnerability to bacteria such as Myco Plasma. I wonder if all this is somehow connected to a Type O negative blood type? Perhaps I’ll ask the specialist at the next appointment.
50
Had heard of the Buteyko method but didn’t really link it with CO2 until these posts.
Thanks.
CO2 is, of course, the gas of life: without it we cease breathing.
It is well known that once CO2 in the bloodstream gets too low, the essential neural regulation of breathing by CO2 cannot function and there is NO next breath.
This series back in 2013 is part of the story.
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/09/plants-suck-half-the-co2-out-of-the-air-around-them-before-lunchtime-each-day/#comment-1321691
An excess of CO2 up to a point is relatively harmless but it is certain that the same cannot be said for oxygen which must be the most dangerous gas for humans.
Ain’t science wonderful.
KK
40
“The Buteyko method is named after its founder Doctor Konstantin Buteyko.”
30
My lady did a course of training in the Buteyko breathing method to treat her fairly bad asthma.
It definitely worked, but was very time consuming. It required a couple of half hour sessions on a bed breathing very shallowly among other things.
When she put in enough time & effort she could eliminate her medication completely. However it was often not practical to devote the time required, & she stopped using the system.
50
It’s about time:
Junk science studies behind Obama regulations under fire.
100
To suit these warmist virtue-signal times,
Some banks will not be seen to fund coal mines.
The B.H.P. on climate-change rings hollow,
An echo from the Greens they choose to follow.
The planet-saving Greens do all they can,
To keep cheap energy supplies from man.
No skeptics were employed or had their say,
When warmists ran the U.S. E.P.A..
140
Is Vic having problems with generation? When you rely on SA to give 300mw two days in a row you are in trouble
90
The wind is blowing, and to keep SA in sync they must run gas turbines 50/50 with wind and that means exports to Vic, but it also appears that gas in SA must be cheaper than gas in Vic.
Can anyone locate monthly trends in gas prices by State?
Electricity wholesale prices in Vic do seem to be trending down. Is that the result of the dressing down MT gave the electricity generators and the gas suppliers? /sarc
2Q17 $104.88/MWhr
3Q17 $99.79
4Q17 $84.55
But prices are still well above the 2016 average of $47.43/Mwhr.
71
Our gas plant is running flat out and SA/Vic/tas are paying twice as much as the others…….
50
Which one is “our gas plant”?
60
Torrens island in sa
60
The Mystery of Maine’s Viking Penny
The coin is the real deal, but how did it get all the way from Norway?
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/maine-norse-penny-archaeology-vikings-north-america.amp
70
I raise the question as to whether the lurking trolls a.k.a. red thumbers are sentient beings.
TedM and pat both extended Christmas Greetings to all readers, yet got a red thumb. I also, but after a dig at trolls that lurk. Indeed pat seems to ‘earn’ a red thumb for every comment regardless of content. This lead me to wonder if we are merely getting the ‘opinion’ of some artificial program meant to give the impression that there are more believers left among the AGW crowd than the obvious few.
142
It could be that the red thumber automatically gives the thumb to pat and few others without reading their comments. Near enough to an automaton even if they do breathe air.
Alternatively they might object to Christmas greetings.
40
I see that you got a red thumb from one of the lurking trolls Graeme No3. However I have to commend your observational ability to notice what has happened to other bloggers. Hope you had a wonderful CHRISTmas (probably get me another red thumb) and a marvelous New Year. All thew best Graeme No3.
TedM
40
Occasionally I give out a thed rumb.
%hic
10
Christmas is good.
00
Red thumb is not automatic, I put in the term’ Christmas’ and there was no red thumb.
Its probably human. Not sure if 95% agree.
00
Communist regimes tend to be Godless hence red thumbing of a Xmas greeting
101
Maybe he’s a Gaian?
40
Communist Gaian? same thing Sam.
30
Breaking news from the Canadian Gov’t:
20
A weather warning, extreme cold weather grips much of Canada?
40
It is -16 degrees, on the border with with Canada, here in Northen NY. We have had 45 cm of snow in the last few days! I could do with some global warming right now!
70
Lake Effect
‘Pennsylvania’s fourth largest city under more than four feet of snow over Christmas, smashing both local and state snowfall records.’
60
What’s the news ace?
21
Yes, it is a bit chilly in the Great White North. Today’s high was -26C, tonight’s low will be -34C. Windchills range from -40-50C across the Province of Manitoba. I had to get the parka out and put the hoodie away. Even zipped up the parka! Maybe I qualify as a “climate refugee” and can get some $$$$$ from our snow-boarding PM to head to Nunavut. The arctic is warming really fast you know.
90
How’s the wind chill on the corner of Portage and Main?
Minus 40 about par for the course this time of year.
40
Those temperatures are incomprehensible to most of us who live down under in Oz.
Stay warm R2Dtoo
61
LOL we had +38c here yesterday 🙂
30
429FZUS81 KCLE 230135
ICEGL
Great Lakes Freeze-up Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
840 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2017
...Ice Beginning to Form on the Great Lakes and
Colder than Normal Temperatures Expected for the
Rest of the 2017-2018 Winter...
The recent cold spells across the Great Lakes have allowed the
water temperatures to drop and allow some ice to form in the
protected waterways and bays. As of December 21, 2017, the
latest ice analysis from the National Ice Center showed ice
thicknesses between 2 and 6 inches were reported around the
SOO, near Green Bay, Saginaw Bay, eastern Lake St. Clair and
the western basin of Lake Erie. Ice thicknesses in the 2 to as
much as 12 inch range were reported in the Bays De Noc. The
rest of the lakes remain ice free at this time.
Water temperatures dropped into the middle and upper 30s across
Lake Superior, lower to middle 40s in the central portions of
Lakes Michigan and Huron, in the lower 30s in the western basin
of Lake Erie and upper 30s to lower 40s in the central and
eastern portions of Lake Erie.
There is the possibility that the limited ice coverage (4.0%
coverage of the Great Lakes) will continue to grow over the next
10 days. An arctic air outbreak is poised to move southeast
across the Great Lakes during the middle and latter part of next
week. Air temperatures are expected to fall below zero for highs
in the northern lakes Monday and into the teens on Tuesday in the
southeastern portion of the lakes. This cold air outbreak will
last into the new year as yet another strong cold air outbreak
is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region.
A La Nina Advisory remains in effect as there is a high likelihood
that La Nina conditions will persist through mid to late spring in
2018. A return to neutral conditions is expected at that time.
The long range 90 day outlook has been adjusted slightly to favor
below normal temperatures across the western half of the Great
Lakes from about Toledo, Ohio west. Otherwise, east of Toledo
is expected to see equal chances for either above, near, or below
normal temperatures. This means there is no strong indication
that temperatures will be above, below, or near normal during the
90 day period.
Based on the 90 day outlook, ice could be much more extensive
across the Great lakes than previously thought; especially in the
western half of the lakes. If this current trend continues
over the next couple weeks, there is the possibility for
significant ice formation by mid January.
https://www.weather.gov/cle/GreatLakesIce_text
40
Just a reminder of who and what…
Like an Aristophanes satire, like Hamlet, it opens with two slaves, spear-carriers, little people.
10
I was wondering about something, and luckily, I have this ‘foible’ where I save ‘stuff’ for no other reason than you know, one day I might need that, not hoarding in a physical sense, but saving ‘stuff’ on the computer, because other than my own personal files, I have the facility to save things at what is my home site.
The thing I was wondering about was that Christmas power consumption figures I mentioned a few days back, and then followed up yesterday with the Christmas Day total. Sort of to myself, it might have started out as, umm, …..Oh Oh! What if that really low power consumption was due to all those people being home and using their rooftop solar power instead of sucking up power from the grid, you know, with everyone home and that, and I can see a journo somewhere latching onto that.
So, I thought to myself, that it could be that, so I wonder if I can check that, and sometimes, there’s no real rhyme or reason why you do save stuff on the computer, but in this case, it proved insightful, and another of those cases where it’s a case of, well, thank heavens I actually did save that.
I always knew that Christmas power consumption was considerably lower than on any other normal working day, so when I made that prediction, it was based on knowledge I was already certain of.
Okay then, I mentioned earlier that power consumption at 2PM, mid afternoon on Christmas Day was around 17,300MW, a full 11,800MW lower than for the same time the previous work day Monday, 18Dec2017.
This morning, a working day after Boxing Day, the Base Load is back up, a little lower than a usual mid Summer working day, but still at 17,100MW so almost the same as it was during that Christmas Day afternoon, excepting that this morning most of those people celebrating Christmas were tucked up asleep in bed and Australia was consuming almost the same power as at that 2PM time on Christmas Day.
However, what if the fact that it was so low was due in part to rooftop solar power taking over the bulk of power generation on Christmas Day. There’s no way to know for sure and certain, but luckily, I saved all that ‘stuff’ for some reason or other.
So, with power consumption actually at that figure of 17,300MW at 2PM on this Christmas Day, could I then compare for the last few years.
Well, yes, because I have those Christmas Day Load Curves going back to 2009, 8 years ago now, and long before this ‘boom’ in the fitting of rooftop panels began, and then ramped up considerably to what it is now.
Okay, let’s compare, and these figures are for 2PM on Christmas Day.
2009 – 18000MW
2010 – 18500MW
2011 – 19000MW
2012 – 19000MW
2013 – 18500MW
2014 – 18500MW
2015 – 18000MW
2016 – 18000MW
2017 – 17300MW
You be the judge, and while it has decreased, it hasn’t been by much really, and with everyone at home and consuming more power than usual if they were at work and school, then more power is being consumed from those panels than would be fed back to the grid, with first consumption coming in those homes from rooftop solar.
Now, I would say that rooftop solar power has contributed towards that reduction, but even so, at the same time that rooftop solar fitment has increased, so too has air conditioning installations in the home.
So, it seems to me that it’s basically status quo. We’re told of an ‘expl0si0n’ in rooftop solar power being fitted to homes, but this looks to me like it’s not really all that significant, and if it is supposed to be the saviour it is mooted to be, then it has a long long way to go yet.
Keep in mind that this is the one day in the year when everyone is at home, so residential power would realistically be at its highest.
Sometimes, there is a degree of satisfaction in saving things that at the time might seem like just being anal.
Tony.
160
I dont know if it means much Tony, but much of NSW coastal population area was very cloudy and heavily overcast on xmas day and Boxing day.
So certainly not a lot of rooftop solar available, and probably not a huge amount of A/C used either.
80
Air conditioning would have been going flat out on Boxing Day in SA with 39℃ and shopping only allowed in the City Centre.
Dec. 27 temperatuure nearly the same but shopping back to ‘normal’ (actually mad rush for ‘bargains”).
30
Yes G # 3 , that may have been so, but remember that even on a good day, SA accounts for less than 10% of total Au power usage. So the effect would have been minimal.
10
I would have thought SA accounts for about 6% of power usage on average. I put that in because I thought that Tony might be able to extract any effect.
So we had Christmas Day as mid 20’s (29℃ was forecast).
Boxing Day had sales on in central Adelaide only with temperature in the high thirties.
Roughly the same maximum on Dec. 27 with all shops open.
The forecast for today (Dec.28) is for 29℃ as for Christmas day.
My personal usage will be much the same as I have encamped indoors by the air conditioner, only going out to do some watering. Tomorrow will be cooler so I intended braving the frenzied mobs of shoppers to collect my order of Bill Leak’s cartoons. My bookshop** tells me that this is from the THIRD printing. There must be a lot more “deplorable right wingers” out there that some would like you to believe.
** IMPRINTS in, of all places, Hindley Street. Those who think they know Adelaide will be surprised, although there isn’t a strip club or pub within 3 doors of the bookshop.
00
Shopping only “allowed” in the city centre?? seriously? I remember moving to Melbourne in the early 80s and thinking it was weird that hardware stores and car yards werent open on Sundays. Do they still do that weird roster thing with petrol stations in WA?
00
Thanks Tony b ut I’ll read it aGIN AFTER i’VE SOBERED UP.
40
Tony, this from Renew Energy website suggests solar has provided up to 48% of SA demand.
And this: Australia’s total solar power capacity has reached 6GW and is expected to double over the next few years as Australian households continue to invest in rooftop panels to reduce electricity bills, and the large-scale solar sector takes off after years of promise.
All Australia’s rooftop solar panel systems generated 7,206 gigawatt-hours of electricity during July 2016 – June 2017. That’s an hourly average of 822 MW or a likely peak around 5MW.
10
Oops, peak around 5,000 MW.
10
“as Australian households continue to invest in rooftop panels to reduce electricity bills,”
And what will the bill be when there is no coal to subsidise it?
10
The photovoltaic site has metered demand at 19705MW at 2:30pm on 25th. Of that 2648MW was coming from small scale solar. That leaves 17057MW in the NEM.
http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/live#2017-12-25
There would also be substantial household solar going to behind the meter loads in the States that do not meter the full solar output.
NSW solar output was near the same but SA solar was supplying 45% of the metered demand. The actual NEM demand was only 556MW in SA.
As power prices rise in other states, all with power supply ambitions aligned to SA, more households and businesses will make an economic decision to install local solar. SA is the test case. Without the VIC link its wind generation would be stranded assets. The wind generators in SA rely heavily on the VIC load to maintain reasonable capacity factors. As VIC increases its wind generation that link will be of less value to SA wind generators.
10
Tony, I’m not sure about the rest of OZ but here in Melbourne Christmas Day was very mild – no need at all for Air cons.
00
A Science comment
Measurement of Clear Sky Downwelling Longwave Radiation?
A recent blog post by Willis Eschenbach contains the following statement:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/22/where-the-temperature-rules-the-total-surface-absorption/
I find it hard to accept that down welling IR radiation from greenhouse gases can be more than twice as energetic as sunlight, even given that the greenhouse gas radiation occurs day and night. Since he says not to question the statement on his blog post I will ask my question here. Perhaps someone knows something about it.
So the question is; who has measured downwelling IR during clear sky conditions and how did they do it?
My Search
A web search using the phrase; “Measurement of clear sky downwelling longwave radiation”, turned up some entries but most of them turned out to be the predictions of models, not measurements.
This reference however has some actual measurements, even though it is not from a peer reviewed journal. Since the work comes from the University of Alabama, Huntsville (where Roy Spencer works) I give it some credence.
Measurements of Downwelling Infrared Irradiance; Danielle L. Nuding, Stephanie T. Long, and David A. Bowdle Earth Systems Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmchem/docs/DEPSCOR_progreport_9_13_07.pdf
In summary, the study involved two (Kipp and Zonen CG4) pyrgeometers on a 12 ft tower on a roof, pointed upward at the sky. The results are presented in “ Figure 3 Time series of downwelling infrared irradiance for May 21, 2007. A clear sky was present from midnight-midnight local time.”
Figure 3 depicts the output of the two pyrgeometers, plotted on the same graph. The results of each pyrgeometer are very nearly the same. The pyrgeometer measurements range from 240W/m2 to 350W/m2 varying with the day/night temperature. The maximum measurement occurred at 17:30 and the minimum at 06:00.
(On that day the maximum temperature was 30c, the minimum temperature was 10C and the average was 20C.)
https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHSV/2007/5/21/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo
Just to do a check on that I calculate (using the Stephan Boltzman equation) the surface emission at Huntsville at 30C to be:
P = σεT4 = 5.67 × 10-8 W.m-2.K-4 × 0.90 × (303 K)4 = 430 W/m2. (emissivity =0.9)
If half of the outgoing IR is radiated back to the surface the expected downwelling IR is 215W/m2. Actually the downwelling IR from greenhouse gases should be less than that because there is an atmospheric window by which about half the outgoing IR should escape directly to space so (by my estimate) the expected downwelling longwave radiation should be about 107W/m2 for a surface temp of 30C.
Their measurement seems too high by a factor of 3!
That in turn raises the question; what is a pyrgeometer and what does it actually measure?
At best it is supposed to integrate the received radiation over the wavelengths 5-100um. A pyrgeometer is not a spectroscope so it does not show the intensity v wavelength. So discrimination of the downwelling longwave radiation for the various greenhouse gases (or aerosols) is not possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrgeometer
At worst a pyrgeometer measures the Air Temperature in the lowest 25m of the atmosphere!
I will finish by saying that I like the blog articles by Willis Eschenbach. He is a hero of the Climate Change Skeptics and gets adulation on the desmogblog website.
https://www.desmogblog.com/willis-eschenbach
To ask my question again: Who has measured the clear sky downwelling longwave radiation and how did they do it?
50
PeterC:
I have no idea about this, but cementafriend years ago pointed out that pointing a meter at the sky merely measured the temperature*. His idea was that to measure the net effect you had to measure the radiation from the ground and the sky and use the difference. Apparently this isn’t acceptable to the AGW mob.
I take the very simple minded view that if the incoming solar radiation is the same as the out-going radiation (as claimed by NASA GISS etc.) then the Earth cannot be heating UNLESS they can identify another source of solar energy. I am told that the natural heat loss from the Earth’s core only adds 0.3% to warming. I am prepared to change that view IF the real figure is higher.
* curiously the measurements of back radiation from the sky a few years ago showed a longterm (15 year) reduction except in spring. From memory NOAA in the midwest but I didn’t save a reference.
70
Good question Peter.
My first thoughts on the matter are based around the concept of degradation.
From the moment energy leaves the Sun it is being degraded.
It can arrive at our surface most importantly as highly energised UV which is absorbed by the earth or ocean or ice where it degrades and may reappear as a much lower energy IR heading for the clouds.
One of the most important concepts of thermodynamics is that energy does not move against the temperature gradient.
It must move from a point of high temperature towards the lower temperature.
I think that maybe downwelling is just a bad joke.
As for these guys doing a mass, heat and momentum balance on energy entering Earth’s atmosphere from the Sun, good luck to them.
If you hold your thumb at arms length and point it towards a low lying cloud, the cloud behind your thumb tip and contained in an imaginary cube of the same dimensions, will weigh about 2 tonnes. All that water was lifted up from ground or oceans by energy from the Sun.
Did these guys consider that?
I don’t think that the concept of back radiation regardless of name is all that useful in real science.
🙂
KK
61
Please observe the image (picture) of Rudy Clausius! His 2LTD is much more definitive: “Stuff don spontaneously go uphill”! Rudy also gave us his Virial Therom which shows what the Solar system masses ‘must do’ to become stable. Go back and observe that image of Rudy’s again. Do yous guys really wanta futz wid Rudy? 🙂
11
Keith please, There is no gravitational ‘lifting of weight’ for any component (bugs bees water aircraft) of ‘airborne compressible fluid’ called ‘atmosphere’. All is subsumed via gravitational compression of such compressible fluid in the form of semi-stable pressure, density, temperature gradients with respect to radius from Earth’s centre of mass.
All the best!-will-
41
Hi Will,
I was, sort of, expecting this but still don’t get the meaning.
If you turned the Sun off wouldn’t all clouds eventually drop to Earth?
I unnerstan that once in place, a cloud is a low density discrete item floating in a denser medium, but how did it get there?
From the other comment, what is radiance.
KK
30
Loss of atmospheric sensible heat would result in atmospheric condensation to in-compressible fluid (water) or solid. Try to understand the gas law(s) in the presence\vicinity of Earth’s vast gravitational compression\(sans acceleration) of atmospheric mass. Gas must expand Gravity must contract. What ‘is’ the result?
“From the other comment, what is radiance.”??
EMR Radiance since 1983 is the exquisitely crafted 4-space normalized expression for differential EMR power transfer potential, replacing the misused term ‘brightness’. Hint: the most important normalization was with respect to ‘time’ dQ/dt is power Watts not ‘energy’. This normalizes out the ‘relativity’ pain in the butt! 🙂
Are we having fun yet?
31
Just imagine MAMA chook, setting on egg, wondering if this embryo best be hatched into Hitler styled chicken, or best be delivered unto Armenian omblette? MAMA always worry! 🙂
11
How? May I suggest by cycling?
BTW. I have actually seen gravity hauling some of those clouds all the way back to sea level. Apparently having shed lots and lots of heat along the way.
10
While on the subject of atmospheric water.
When I was young and strong and working outdoors, for three quarters of the year my standard attire was shorts and short sleeved shirt. In farming, one was ever attentive to the presence or lack of water droplets in the air in whatever form that the exposed skin could sense. Believe me, at times the first drop of rain could bring a thrill of anticipation of more.
Sometimes, without a cloud in the sky, I experienced the sensation of a cool water droplet hitting my skin. Often just one, sometimes a few over a period of time. Sometimes on a hot day in a roaring drought.
What was it? How did this happen? Did a drop of water really find its way down from way up there without evaporating? Was it Bee Pee? Or did a nerve in my skin just send a false message?
20
Interesting. I think that it was ROM, some time back, who wrote about unusual mist/cloud/water behaviour at ground level.
00
To counter the BS.. first note the absolute distinction between ‘flux’ W/m², a power transfer, and ‘radiance’ W/(m²·sr), an electromagnetic potential for power transfer as allowed in context!
If by “downwelling IR”, you mean spontaneous EMR flux W/m² emitted in a direction of higher opposing ‘radiance’ W/(m²·sr)at any wavelength and polarization; Such has never been done, and if claimed, such claim is but a deliberate malicious contradiction of all 22 of Maxwell’s equations on electricity and magnetism. Thermodynamics and statistical analysis be damned!
A meteorological pyrgometer is an (intentionally) sloppy uncool-ed ‘radiometer’. Such operates via measuring the thermal conductivity of a ‘bolometer’ indicating a temperature decrease in the direction of lower ‘radiance’ across said bolometer. The EMR waveband is between 1 and 8 microns (silicon window).
I am most willing to share details of my attempts, errors, and failure to accomplish such measurement. Such would take many, perhaps all, of JoNova unthreadedness!!
All the best!-will-
51
This seems to be the answer.
An answer of some clarity.
Merry Christmas Will.
KK
21
And if I might attempt a summary; they aren’t measuring what they think they are measuring.
🙂
31
Science (measurement) seems to be battle between discovery of the non repeatable and the cover-up of God’s tweeking\adjusting of the “IS”. Perhaps God refuses to be ‘all knowing’ as is promoted by some EVIL religions. I much prefer a God that expresses “I don’t know either Will, let’s go find out”! 🙂
41
I summary, I agree with you Peter.
If there was such a thing as downwelling radiation, it cannot be double the original incident solar energy which created it.
Good find.
KK
21
It is also appropriate to mention Willis Eschenbach’s qualifications.
They are in massage and psychology.
Hence the belief in “downwelling”.
01
PeterC said:
Don’t got out in the dark you will get burnt to a crisp!!. That should convey how silly the idea of 345W/sq.m of LW radiation is. Imagine a 6kW heater in 3m X 4m room. It is a lot of energy. Downwelling LW radiation cannot occur unless there is temperature inversion.
31
🙂
20
Even with inversion, the maximum possible power transfer is the one way differential version of the S-B equation. Precisely 4σ T³ΔT; which must go to zero at zero ΔT;
All the best!-will-
21
At a cloud height of say 3,000 ft the temperature will be 6.5 C° lower than ground level.
Delta T is negative.
No downwelling likely.
11
🙂
11
Thanks everyone,
It seems that Willis was wrong when he claimed that downwelling greenhouse gas radiation has been measured by scientists around the world for decades. Indeed there does not seem to be any suitable instrument for making such measurements.
I was sincere when I said that I admire Willis Eschenbach and his climate articles. He says that he dropped out of university and has had a knockabout career since then. Despite that he is a very good at mathematics, is a keen observer of nature and has a clear and entertaining style of writing.
21
I would question that he is a keen observer of nature if he believes there is 345W/sq.m of LW radiation coming down night and day. That would imply zero understanding of power and energy. It would mean that there would not be much difference in radiative heat input at the surface between day and night. No place on Earth would ever get cold at night. Anyone with a gram of thinking ability would appreciate how silly the concept is.
21
Peter C December 28, 2017 at 9:37 am
“Thanks everyone,”
Expect message from God:
‘Peter, I notice that you think, sometimes, just what do you think?
01
I think that CO2 likely helps cool the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth. I haven’t been able to prove it yet.
22
In that there is no correlation in the geologic record that suggests that atmospheric CO2 affects temperature, (and conversely evidence that suggests that it is temperature that has some effect on atmospheric CO2), and that of the three wave lengths at which the gas CO2 can exchange photons the only earthly temperature of minus 80C is associated with 14.3 micrometers, is it not reasonable to expect that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has NO affect on temperature whatsoever?
32
Well it does sound reasonable to me, but not to the red thumber apparently. I am surprised that he/she has not thumbed my original comment yet.
With regard to the CO2 emission at 14.3 micrometers, I think that it is a bit erroneous to associate that wave length with a temperature of -80C. Wein’s displacement law does specify the peak emission wavelength at -80C as 14.3 micrometers but the whole emission spectrum is very broad. Hence 14.3um can be associated with emission from a very large range of surface temperatures.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/19/radiative-heat-transfer-by-co2-or-whats-the-quality-of-your-radiation/
When the surface gets hot thermal currents start up and cool by convection. Some how heat is transferred from the surface to the adjacent air. If only conduction is involved the near surface air has to be in very intimate contact. But if radiative gases are involved the surface can heat the near surface air up to about 25m altitude. Observations suggest that most likely happens. Hence radiative gases in the atmosphere could be helping to cool the Earth surface.
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And that’s the real science.
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Communist Victoria seem to be relying on SA, NSW and Tasmania to meet demand does anyone know whether any coal fired units are down at the moment?
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One Unit down in NSW, Liddell Number One. (minus (around) 420MW)
One Unit down in Qld, Kogan Creek. (minus 744MW)
One Unit down in Victoria, Loy Yang A Unit One. (minus 560MW) Loy Yang A Unit 4 has only just come back online at around 4PM, after being down for 20 hours. (minus 560MW)
Tony.
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Thanks Tony,
As Victoria is around the 1.5Gw in deficit does that mean that on a day like today Vicroria could never be self sufficient in power.
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Ah! But when Dopey Dan shuts down Loy Yang you will find out what self sufficiency means when you have a State running on mostly wind power – now and then.
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TonyfromOz I would suspect that Christmas day domestic use is less on Christmas day because families get together and many homes are vacant. A very happy New Year to all here.
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??You think there are more homes vacant on xmas day than on a normal work day when most people are at work , school, shopping, etc …leaving most homes vacant ??
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Chad, I wouldn’t conclude ‘more homes vacant’ from DanA’s comment. Rather, that those whose homes are vacant on Christmas day are gathered at the homes of relatives and friends, and are causing less electricity consumption there than they would at work, etc. on a regular business day.
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Sydney to Hobart record broken by ‘blocking high’, brisk north-easterlies.
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Poor just hatched infant AU chook. saying ‘peep, peep’ meaning ‘help me momma, I do not wish to sh*t in my food’, while AU politician hen screams “AW dis is awful” and AU politician rooster crowing “See what I can do”! Please AU citizens what is the expected outcome?
In the USA we are in worse shape! OH whoa are we!
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My local community (voting population about 400) is being encouraged to implement a “Micro Grid”. A couple of semi retired consultants are attempting to whip up interest, and after a token meeting at the community hall, they are proceeding to apply (you guessed it) for a grant to perform a feasibility study. It hasnt been said but I have a fair idea who the consultants will be. I guess we will be following the trail blazed by Totally Renewable – Yackandandah, who say they will 100% renewable by 2022.
I am looking forward to the twists and turns this little project takes and how much taxpayer money will get burnt up along “the journey”
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