…
A new paper finds that there is already enough genetic variety spread across the Great Barrier Reef to adapt to the imagined “unprecedented” warming coming in the next two centuries. We don’t need to rely on random mutations or consider fantasy solutions of man-made oceanic sunscreens, mass sunshades, or giant reef fans. Corals already have a major immigration program running pretty effectively to juggle 200 million years of genetic material and then spread the successes far and wide. Meddling humans can help things (maybe) by moving a few bits of coral around. That’s it. Cancel the scare please.
Skeptics have been saying this for years — who needs a computer model to predict that the Barrier Reef will adapt? How bad could global warming be? The global oceans span a 32C range and corals prefer the hottest five degrees of that. Indeed, there is a five degree temperature range from one end of the Great Barrier Reef to the other, and corals are clearly, obviously pretty happy about it. Meanwhile, the atmosphere is warming at a mere tenth of a degree per decade. Then there is the well known phenomenon that corals spawn in vast clouds that are so big they can be seen from space and there is a whole new generation of corals every five years. You don’t need to be Nostradamus to figure out that survivors from some parts of the reef will reseed other parts, as they have done for eons. Half of the coral genera around today have been around since the Oligocene (23-34 million years ago).
Corals also adapt to heatwaves by chucking out the algal symbionts that don’t thrive in higher temperatures. So on top of their own genetic adaptability, they can “gear up” in different ways too. In the unlikely event that IPCC climate models are right for the first time in history, corals will cope.
h/t to GWPF which has a library of coral reef science news.
Climate change just shifts this large range slightly south. So what?
Corals are already happy coping across a five degree range of water temperature.
If the water gets warmer to the South, Great Barrier Reef corals will probably spread further.
Keppel Island at the far south end has quite a different population:
(A) Locations of sampled populations where mean midsummer month sea surface temperature differed by up to ~3°C. (B) Principal component analysis of water quality and temperature parameters at the sampled locations. Winter.T—10% quantile of winter temperature, Summer.T– 90% quantile of summer temperature, Daily.T– 90% quantile of daily temperature range, Phos–total dissolved phosphorus, Chl–chlorophyll, NO3 –nitrate, Secchi–Secchi depth (water clarity). Locations are colored according to summer temperature as in panel A. (C) Principal component analysis of genome-wide genetic variation (inset–Acropora millepora). Centroid labels are initial letters of population names as in panel A. (D) ADMIXTURE plot of ancestry proportions with K = 2 (the lowest cross-validation error was observed with K = 1). Analyses on panels C and D were based on 11,426 SNPs spaced at least 2.5 kb apart and not including FST outliers.
Note the paper does not suggest we need to set up a carbon trading scheme to improve coral genetic fitness. We might consider picking up a few bits of coral and spreading them around:
Implications for Reef Management
We found that genetic diversity of Acropora millepora was not yet strongly affected by climate change and that the migration patterns were well positioned to facilitate persistence of the GBR metapopulation for a century or more. Our results underscore the pivotal role of standing genetic variation and migrant exchange in the future metapopulation persistence, suggesting management interventions such as assisted gene flow [41] by moving adult reproductively active colonies or by outplanting lab-reared offspring produced by crossing corals from different populations. With the estimated natural migration rates on the order of 0.1–1% (10–100) migrants per generation, human-assisted genotype exchange could appreciably contribute to the genetic rescue without risking disruption of the natural local adaptation patterns [42]
The authors stress that they underestimated the adaptability of the coral populations in most of their estimates. The only bad news part of their model analysis was that populations might become more sensitive to random heatwaves. Given that this relies on IPCC model forecasts of ocean temperatures, I remain unconcerned.
Despite this capacity for adaptation, our model predicts that coral populations would become increasingly sensitive to random thermal fluctuations such as ENSO cycles or heat waves, which corresponds well with the recent increase in frequency of catastrophic coral bleaching events.
What recent increase in “catastrophic” coral bleaching events? We have no long term good data on historic bleaching events, the extent of bleaching is hotly contested, and corals are already recovering. If there was mass coral bleaching in 1066, and corals didn’t recover til 1086, how would we know?
The Background of Reef Survival
- Ocean acidification happens every day in some places.
- Fish seem to behave better when artificial tanks mimic these natural daily swings.
- A bit less alkalinity is better for hundreds of species.
- Some coral reefs thrive in a more acidic ocean
- There is a big safety margin: farmed fish seem to cope fine with CO2 levels that are even fifty times higher than today.
- We only discovered coral bleaching in the 1980s but it’s probably been going on for millions of years.
…
…
Author summary
Coral reefs worldwide are suffering high mortality from severe thermal stress episodes induced by acute ocean warming events. Under the current rate of warming, will corals be gone before the end of this century? Here we combine population genomics with biophysical and evolutionary modeling to investigate adaptive potential of a common reef-building coral from the Great Barrier Reef. To approach this task, we have developed a predictive model of polygenic adaptation in a system of multiple inter-connected populations that exist in a heterogeneous and changing environment. Applying this model to our coral species, we find that populations successfully adapt to diverse local temperatures along the range of the Great Barrier Reef despite high migrant exchange and should collectively harbor enough adaptive genetic variants to fuel region-wide thermal adaptation for another century and perhaps longer. In the same time, the model predicts that random thermal fluctuations will induce increasingly severe coral mortality episodes, which aligns well with observations over the last few decades.
REFERENCES
Matz MV, Treml EA, Aglyamova GV, Bay LK (2018) Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral. PLoS Genet 14(4): e1007220. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1007220
Image: Wikimedia, author Wise Hok Wai Lum: Flynn Reef 2014.
2012 study of Great Barrier Reef corals shows major die off during 1930’s & 1940’s coinciding with 1930-50 GlobalWarming & ElNino.
1950-1980 GlobalCooling showed no coral bleaching events.
Palaeoecological evidence of a historical collapse of corals at Pelorus Island, inshore Great Barrier Reef, following European settlement
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1750/20122100.short
100
Could someone with influence & contacts please ensure that The Prince of Wales gets a copy of this evidence in his inbox soon.
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Also send to the’Teaching Birds How To Fly’ Environment Departments
of Universities and guv-uh-mints.
80
Here we go again. King Geo getting annoyed again. For the 1000th time “warming doesn’t kill coral reefs” – “cooling” does. The next Ice Age [IA] will well and truly kill off the GBR – just like it did in the last 100,000 year IA and the Pleistocene IA’s before that. During the next IA the SL will drop 130m again, the coral reef building organisms will not be able to step back quick enough. The GBR shelf will be exposed. At best some deeper water pinnacle reefs will survive. Time for James Cook University to focus on useful research, ie no research grants to study the impact of GW on coral reefs – believe me the coral reef building organisms such as coral, coralline algae etc etc just love the warmer oceanic conditions. The tropical Early/Middle Miocene reefs I have examined (23.03Ma – 11.6Ma) happily flourished in a much warmer oceanic setting than currently being experienced. Their nemesis was the rapid SL fall experienced during the Late Miocene. As for coral bleaching – a short term effect closer to the Equator during El Nino events. Like us humans getting “sun burn” for spending too much time in the sun getting a tan. Now that I have got that off my chest (not the tan) I can go back and sip my nice Margaret River Cape Mentelle SSB.
250
” … The GBR shelf will be exposed. At best some deeper water pinnacle reefs will survive. …”
—-
This is where the Queensland Plateau may come in handy with reef tops currently ~200 m deep (low light cold water adapted). There’s deep-water coral reef there now.
Plus there will be a stack of Pacific atolls sticking about 130 m out of the water. I expect deep shelves have already grown around those, during the past 3 my. Plus PNG area.
90
Bleaching happens only during strong El Nino, causing a sudden sea level fall and generating a drier high-pressure system with clear skies and more intense solar irradiance.
It also reduces regional winds and inhibits reef-flushing currents, all of which were observed during El Niño 2016 around Lizard Island and throughout the northern GBR.
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Hi Joanne,
Your brilliance never ceases to amaze!
Everyone needs to latch onto great stuff like this …
& ram it down Get-Up’s Throat next Federal Election!
I’m sorry; I shouldn’t get so emotional!
But this country (& most of OECD.) is being continually force-fed a nauseating diet, of junk science,, by brain-washed “DENIER PROJECTIONERS”, which is getting more agrevating each year.
(By the way, the Newspoll figures tomorrow are slightly better for Chairman Mal.)
Anyways, I am going to be doing my bit over the next 12 months to try and give as many people as possible some edification about what is hither-to the Greatest Ponzi Scheme the world has ever seen——!!
Warmest of regards!,
Reformed Warmist of Logan!
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the CAGW-infested MSM had no problem reporting this story, yet refuse to consider adaptation in the case of alleged CAGW!
20 Apr: WaPo: Meagan Flynn: Why these extraordinary sea-hunting people in Asia can dive hundreds of feet on a single breath
Commonly called Sea Nomads, the indigenous Bajau people have lived for thousands of years off the coast of Southeast Asia, near Malaysia and the Indonesia archipelago. They commonly live in houseboats, spending hours each day hunting fish or other sea creatures underwater. For centuries, these extraordinary free-diving abilities mystified scientists, as the source of the Sea Nomads’ intuitive breath-holding talents remained unknown.
But now, a group of geneticists and biologists from the University of Copenhagen and University of California at Berkeley, among others, believe they finally have an answer: The secret lies in the spleen.
On Thursday, findings published in the journal Cell revealed that the Bajau people may have developed a genetic advantage for diving thousands of years ago via natural selection, as evidenced by their abnormally large spleens…
The spleens of the Sea Nomads were found to be approximately 50 percent larger than spleens the researchers measured in other nearby indigenous people, the Saluan…
The study pointed out that genetic mutations such as the ones found in the Bajau have affected various other populations of people who live in extreme conditions around the world. Several studies have documented how people in Tibet, for example, seem to have undergone natural selection to adapt to hypoxia, an oxygen deficiency resulting from high altitude…
***Discoveries explaining these mutations, Racimo said, go a long way in helping us understand how we may continue to adapt to extreme conditions centuries into the future.
“We’re still evolving,” Racimo said. “Evolution hasn’t stopped at any point in time.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/04/20/why-these-extraordinary-sea-hunting-people-in-asia-can-dive-hundreds-of-feet-on-a-single-breath/
“Sea Nomads” May Have Evolved to Be the World’s Elite Divers
In Depth· Scientific American· Apr 20, 2018
Bajau people ‘evolved bigger spleens’ for free-diving
BBC News· Apr 20, 2018
A group of people with an amphibious life have evolved traits to match
The Economist· Apr 20, 2018
Indonesian divers have evolved bigger spleens to hunt underwater
Science Magazine· Apr 20, 2018
Large spleen helps explain deep-diving skills of Southeast Asian ‘sea nomads’
Reuters· Apr 20, 2018
Bodies Remodeled for a Life at Sea
New York Times· Apr 20, 2018
Take a deep breath — how freediving tribesmen evolved to survive at sea
The Australian· Apr 21, 2018
FUNNY! I CAN FIND NO COVERAGE BY ABC, FAIRFAX OR GUARDIAN! LOL.
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Or is the human splean not constant, but expands capacity as needed, like a muscle does when used differently, or more.
i.e. a combo of permanant adaption, plus transient functional form adjustments.
Play lead guitar with heavy strings and you get calouses on your finger tips as thick and hard as those on your feet. I have no doubt humans, corals and all other life are much more capable than we think, given time to merely adjust form.
But who can adjust form/function better, will of course survive better, and breed more too.
90
I am sceptical of the concept that the GBR can grow to the south. Inshore fringing reefs may grow but the GBR proper is near the continental shelf where the seabed is far too deep, dark and cold for new coral colonies to develop.
Once lost no individual reef will reform. The only way such a catastrophic event may occur to my unscientific mind is if it should topple like one of the Apostles off the Great Ocean Road. A reef, as I see it, is a tall column of dead coral with a beautiful flowering head of live coral. Maybe a 100% bleaching combined with rapid sea level rise could do it too.
You know I’m not a scientist, just a techy type who has visited the reef irregularly over 60 years.
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The greatest danger to the whole reef is a return to glacial conditions and a drop in sea level.
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… which has happened over sixty times over the last 2.5 Million years. Every stadial of the current Ice Age, the sea level drops and much if not most of the GBR dies off. Every interstadial, the sealevel rises. The GBR renews itself. The corals recover (or are recolonised by coral smelt). So what’s the big todo all about?
The reefs are going to get a bit of a pummeling over the next fifty years … 🙁 However, there are always humans who blame other humans for what Nature does.
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We still have to prove that coral bleaching is natural and not human induced.
If the warmer waters and a drop in sea level are down to a strong El Nino, surely CO2 is innocent of all charges.
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The bleaching is natural el Gordo. You can see it in drill hole cores collected from S.E Asian Early – Middle Miocene carbonate reefoid buildups – now I believe that Homo Sapiens evolved circa 300Ka, not 23.03Ma – 11.6 Ma. So AGW gets ruled out – please take note the MSM & especially JCU who receive significant funding to study the GBR. I haven’t read much of their research but suspect a lot of it is endorsing “AGW Gravy Train Ideology”.
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AGW is the meme in the coral industry, but Professor Peter Ridd is a standout civil heretic and will have his day in court.
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I can always remember the good old days when everyone knew beyond any doubt that reef health was related to agricultural practices like deforestation, sugar cane growing etc. Caused by humans with only a fist full of chemicals and the like…..back then…*sigh*……government even funded real marine biologists and studies into the matter.
40
CO2 is definitely innocent of all charges: there’s far more CO2 in the oceans than in the atmosphere; 98.8% of all free CO2 in existence. And that doesn’t cause any bleaching. Why would the 1.2% in the air even matter?
The oceans cover 71% of the planet’s surface and there’s 104 times more mass in the oceans as there is in the atmosphere: the oceans rule. No further proof necessary.
I think you just enjoy rubbing it in to the warmists 🙂
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Collecting my thoughts for the battle ahead, weeding out lukewarm sentiment.
I may have a problem with sea level being the primary trigger, in 1997 shallow corals in Sri Lanka, Kenya, Seychelles, Maldives and Galapagos islands all suffered from coral bleaching.
Did the sea level fall for them too?
50
The reason for the bleaching is the sudden increase in ocean temp during “Super El Nino” events. It is a short term impact. As SL gradually rises coral & coralline algae build up the reef vertically. Has JCU received funding to drill through the reef at several locations on the GBR and collected cores? This way they can study how the reefoid facies has grown through time, ie reconstruct the reef growth. It should reveal discreet biofacies associations e.g. reefoid, offreef, lagoonal etc as relative SL rises and falls. And also ID the bleaching horizons. Now that is what I call “real science”. Is JCU undetaking “real science” or engaging in “AGW Pseudoscience”?
50
I think the Trade winds are stronger under an El Nino but I haven’t checked it.
The Trades are Easterlies: blowing from the East to the West.
If I’m right, that could be one of the reasons for the waters on this side of the South Pacific to have been warmer than usual.
The last El Nino was a big one. The Trade Winds blow more strongly during El Ninos. Water would have fled before them and piled up on the western side of the ocean basin. And it would have been surface water, sun-warmed surface water, which would have been a lot warmer. That’s a lot of miles to cover under the sun, and a lot of water pushed around.
Sea levels would have been lower on the Eastern side of the basins and higher on the Western.
50
A weakened trade wind allows warm water from the western Pacific to surge eastward, lowering sea level in the coral triangle.
That is the argument, the litmus test is whether the Indian Ocean experienced a sea level fall during the El Nino of 1997.
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Eureka …. Bob Tisdale captured the Indian Ocean sea level fall in 1997.
http://i36.tinypic.com/huiyko.jpg
40
I think you are forgetting the main driver for this drivel; grants for the writers and percentage of grant for the university. When the great scam is finally buried and that is when the populace realise that the AGW BS is costing them jobs and dollars there will be many unemployable “scientists” and quite a few universities struggling to regain credibility. Personally I can’t wait to see what excuses will come pouring out of the houses of higher learning and the scrabble by climate scientists claiming they were only following orders. Why parents allow their children to attend James Cook or Sydney U bewilders me. There must be some more good scientists apart from Carter, Plimer and Ridd but they remain silent while science is trashed and that surprises me too. Maybe taxpayers could save the budget by scrapping the ARC and it’s generous grants to pseudo researchers. Stop the grants and the rubbish reports would stop too.
60
Hanrahan, OK. I see your point. https://www.ausmarinescience.com/marine-science-basics/oceanography-of-australia/
How deep does it get off the edge of the shelf and how far off shore does it need to be for decent coral formation? I know in NW WA the corals go right in to the beach, but I understand that is because there are no rivers dumping fresh water there. How close to shore do corals form in QLD? (eg Magnetic Island I recall?)
Would artificial structures be possible? Instead spending ten billion on windmills we might be able to afford one new reef. Might be more of a tourist attraction than a solar panel park.
80
I can not comment on the studies (heh, heh, heh), but after 60 years of periodic snorkelling, I just can’t see any change.
(nor can the guys who run tours out of Cairns and Port Douglas).
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I can. I’d suggest it suffered greatly from the first COT invasion and the subsequent ones have limited any recovery. Another is building.
30
Its labour intensive but we have the ability to minimise the damage.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-02/crown-of-thorns-starfish-killed-great-barrier-reef/9382378
20
A less labour intensive way is with the robotic submersible developed by the Institute of Technology in Brisbane a few years ago. It uses a camera to detect COT and injects it with white vinegar. It was trialled around Green Is. I believe but is now seems out of sight. out of mind. I hope not.
40
Don’t believe everything you hear about the COT either Hanrahan.
I took the board of the Marine Park Authority plus a dozen or so hangers on, & about 30 from AIMS, & another 50 from James Cook out to our instillation at Hardy reef one time.
I was assured that the crown of thorns would put us out of business with in a year by their group opinion. When I assured them that my 2 permanent staff out there had seen only one COT in 9 months, they said that obviously my staff could not recognise a COT.
I was going to tell them that the 2 PHD marine biology students I supported with transport & accommodation out there had not seen any either, but decided that was probably a good way to stuff up the prospects of those students.
That one day did a great deal to destroy my respect for academia. The global warming scam has finished the job. I don’t believe a single word any of them say today, unless it comes with cast iron proof.
110
How do you stop coral growing on reefs? Submarine lantana.
80
More like Bougainvillea.
Another thing people fail to realise is that corals give off toxic substances, poisons, to compete by killing their neighbours, to reduce the local population and make growing space for themselves, and lower numbers, with lower diversity, as they mature.
It’s actually reef destruction which quickly pumps up the numbers and biodiversity, on recovering reefs.
i.e. reefs degrade with stability, they only thrive after major disturbance and destruction.
Those cute little clown fish hide in poisonous corals. The vivid pretty colours are actually a warning of their toxicity and stings.
Coral cuts are really nasty, they infect easily and heal slowly, because corals are toxic underwater Bougainvillea–nasty as hell but very pretty too.
But let’s fret to obsession about reef water-quality like coral is a cute fragile little koala. More like Bougainvillea of the sea, coral needs no encouragement to grow, it’s the boss of the shallows, and heaven help anything that’s in its way. Try anchoring a structure on a reef for a few years, see what happens. Corals have no respect for human engineering.
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I can attest to that. The slightest graze on a corral and you get a nasty red rash on your skin. Snorkelling around a reef, no matter how careful you are, you’ll come out with red scratches all over you.
And you can get a nasty skin infection that eats your flesh too, if your real unlucky. Or step on a poison stonefish, or blue ring, or box jelly, or….
60
So natural selection works even on coral? Now what James Cook University person would think that? The reef is obviously and utterly doomed. Unless more hundreds of millions are gifted to the needy academics.
What I find appalling is the idea that anything which happens, anything with warmth is obviously a consequence of Global Warming which is also called Climate Change. This includes bushfires. Fluctuations in sea temperature. A single warm day. A cold day. Any storm at all. Polar bear populations.
Then the people who think it is all nonsense find themselves on the defensive against an allegation for which an argument was never made, that man causes the very steady increase in CO2 which causes increased Global Temperatures which causes everything, somehow. We are just told that anything is a result of man made CO2 driven Global warming which produces warm water around the barrier reef and that the barrier reef is therefore doomed by coal.
In fact, then we have to correctly point out that even if it were all true, the reef would cope but somehow, somewhere, someone is missing the point. None of these things is true. To even argue against this nonsense is not even the point. Who makes this stuff up and why do real universities, real full time scientists accept this drivel as reasonable. Is it just the money?
202
To answer the question would be a nonsense, because we know the answer.
The best thing is to keep restating the question, over and over;
Is it just the money?
111
Yep. Take away the grants and hey presto no more crap research. Admittedly a few universities would go to the wall but it happens to businesses all the time. There are too many academics, far too many academies and way too many rubbish courses all supported by taxpayers who might well want to spend their hard earned themselves.
80
Well said.
50
In every field, if you fund ‘research’ into one populist theory, surprise-surprise, all you get are papers about that theory. Whodathunkit?
So when critics counterpoint the theory, saying it is falsified by many observations or failed predictions, the alleged “97%” inevitably say, “oh rubbish, look, we have all these recent papers, which all agree the theory is valid”!
Well yeah, because you made sure there were only papers produced that pushed that theory alone.
but … but ..
Thus the field’s debates, periodicals and texts are perverted through funding junk pop-theory and disciplines become rigged games, quoting their own worthless junk-science, getting nowhere.
Just wasting more public money.
20
The most bizarre aspects of all of this “save the coral” rubbish is the one core piece of science that has been buried under a mountain of study grant applications.
The fact is that Coral could not exist but for the presence of Carbon Dioxide in ocean waters.
Coral is built upon the happy marriage of Calcium and Carbon Dioxide. In its dissociated form, of course.
Ca(2+) + CO3(2-) = CaCO3 = Coral.
Perhaps oysters should also be shown some some acknowledgement, alongside coral of course, for their Stirling efforts in Karbon Sequestration.
The UNIPCCCCC should do no less than award the Nobel peace prize for environmental normalization to both of these hard working lifeforms.
A parallel concern might be seen about sharks finding enough food to live on when the oceans are too full of small fish.
Diversion is such a wonderful device for politicians.
KK
111
Agreed. Except that the calcium is fixed by living organisms from the enormous amount of whole CO2 gas dissolved in the water at 50x the concentration in the air above. Polyps also breathe O2 and output CO2 like all living things, even underwater. We came from the oceans ourselves and carry the salty water inside and the 400sq metres of wet lung membranes take in the O2 and release the CO2. We need salt and water to survive. Salt or sal was the basis of wages in Egyptian and Roman times, thus sal, salary. The original roads and cities were built around and between salt areas like London.
We also fix calcium but rather than hard exoskeletons of Calcium Carbonate we form metallic Calcium/Phosphorous structures called bones which are lightweight, flexible and of high tensile strength from Calcium Hydroxylapatite Ca5(PO4)3(OH). The rest is water and CO2 in various combinations and when dry burns like wood. We are carbon lifeforms. Unlike trees and polyps, we are mobile.
Now the doomsayers think Carbon is a problem. Humans are wrecking the planet. The last time Greenpeace banned an element of the Periodic table, it was Chlorine. We have only just begun to understand our world and the druids want to ban elements and hate all carbon fuels. They even want to ban humans (other than themselves). That is all madness, aided and abetted by opportunists.
160
TdeF, I think I get your drift.
You seem to be saying that Coral could not exist in the atmosphere that we breathe because there isn’t enough CO2?
Maybe we need to increase the levels of CO2 in the air to make it possible for coral to “transition” to a more “equitable” living environment?
Let’s end this injustice to coral, Now!
KK
50
” … We might consider picking up a few bits of coral and spreading them around: …”
—
No point, the reef isn’t getting damaged outside of the natural variability range. And the last significant event was 20 years ago. The reef regenerates in ~2 years in the far north, and ~4 years in the far south, i.e. lower-temp equals slower growth and poor recovery rates, but higher-temp equals faster growth and more rapid recovery.
As always warm is our friend, cold is longer-term damaging. Coral is no different to the rest of the biota. Well duh.
______
“Cold water devastates coral reefs off Japan: Survey”
http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/cold-water-devastates-coral-reefs-off-japan-survey
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Oh yeah, RE:
“… We might consider picking up a few bits of coral and spreading them around: …”
They’ll use that idea to demand more public money, to waste, for several decades (until they can’t get away with it any longer).
70
***how categorical can u get?
1 Nov 2017: Axios: Report: Impact of climate change on humans “potentially irreversible”
by Shannon Vavra
Climate change is hurting people’s health more than previously thought, a team of 63 doctors, scientists, and public health officials wrote in a report published Monday in the medical journal Lancet. “The human symptoms of climate change are unequivocal and potentially irreversible” the team warns, in the first of what is expected to be an annual report based on 40 indicators…
***One warning quote: The Washington Post writes that Nick Watts, executive director of Lancet Countdown, says: “If anybody says we can adapt our way out of this, the answer is, of course you can’t.”
https://www.axios.com/report-impact-of-climate-change-on-humans-potentially-irreversible-1513306566-190a6a88-2295-410a-bd90-50412e53f29b.html
WaPo behind paywall, but it’s here:
30 Oct 2017: Chicago Tribune: Climate change fueling disasters, disease in ‘potentially irreversible’ ways, report warns
by Ben Guarino and Brady Dennis, Washington Post
“We’ve been quite shocked and surprised by some of the results,” said Nick Watts, a fellow at University College London’s Institute for Global Health and executive director of the Lancet Countdown, a project aimed at examining the links between climate change and public health…
In 2009, a Lancet commission described climate change as “the biggest global health threat of the 21st century.”…
The Countdown, as its ticking-clock title suggests, outlines the way humans are adapting — or not — to a rapidly evolving climate. It was announced last year during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Morocco. The project, a synthesis of scientific literature and media reports, tracks 40 indicators of human health, including migration, nutrition and air pollution…
Watts also cited the rising number of deaths from floods, storms and other weather disasters. Each year between 2007 and 2016, the world saw an average of 300 weather disasters — a 46 percent increase from the decade between 1990 and 1999…
***”If anybody says we can adapt our way out of this, the answer is, of course you can’t,” (Watts) said. “Some of the changes we’re talking about are so enormous, you can’t adapt your way out.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/science/ct-climate-change-report-20171030-story.html
according to LinkedIn, Watts joined Lancet in January 2016.
2016: Medact.org: Speakers: Nick Watts
Nick is the Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change, an independent and multi-disciplinary research collaboration between academic centres around the world…
Nick is a medical doctor having qualified from the University of Western Australia, and trained in population health (UWA) and public policy (University College London). He regularly consults with the World Health Organization’s Dept. of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, where he provides technical expertise on a range of policy issues, and supports the WHO’s engagement with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change…
Nick also works as the Director of the ***UK Health Alliance on Climate Change, which brings together the UK’s major health institutions, including the BMA, The Lancet, the Faculty of Public Health, and the Royal Colleges of Physicians, Nursing, General Practitioners.
https://www.medact.org/people/nick-watts/
***Wikipedia: UK Health Alliance on Climate Change: The Alliance has campaigned on air pollution and coal phase-out…
Members of the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change include royal colleges, medical journals, faculties and societies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Health_Alliance_on_Climate_Change
Christopher Booker joins in the comments:
3 Nov 2017: Paul Homewood: Climate change is already causing damaging effects on health worldwide – The Lancet
CRITIQUE
(from CONCLUSION)
Needless to say, the study goes to great lengths to tell us all that we should all stop using fossil fuels, pay carbon taxes and rely on renewable energy
At its heart, this is not a serious study, but simply a political document prepared to twist the facts to suit its preconceived agenda.
excerpt from a comment by mikewaite:
I take it that no one will be surprised to see a familiar figure involved (LINK)…
The Lancet Countdown has the potential not only to improve the response to climate change, but to transform it. The collaboration is therefore delighted to announce that Christiana Figueres will join as Chair of its High-Level Advisory Board. Much as she did with the Paris Agreement, Christiana Figueres will help guide the Lancet Countdown to maximise its impact and deliver on the promise of the Paris Agreement.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/11/03/climate-change-is-already-causing-damaging-effects-on-health-worldwide-the-lancet/
July 2017: Aljazeera: Climate change is harming the health of Australians
And it will continue to harm tomorrow and well in to the future.
by Nick Watts
Over the past half-century, average temperatures across the continent have steadily increased, bringing more frequent heat waves that are longer and hotter than any in recorded history. Such prolonged heat waves are causing heightened rates of dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heatstroke, and worsening existing health conditions like heart disease, and potentially even acute kidney injury. Tragically, children and the elderly are most vulnerable. While human health is the hardest hit by climate change, its impacts are far-reaching, with small and large businesses alike under threat…
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/07/climate-change-harming-health-australia-170702082331151.html
Watts is a total nutter.
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““If anybody says we can adapt our way out of this, the answer is, of course you can’t.”
So humans are doomed by a 0.5C change? Can humans even detect a 0.5C change?
Unlike coral, humans with their long lives cannot adapt quickly and adaption by mass selection is unpleasant. However intelligent humans of all animals on the planet adapt their environment. After all, that is what we accuse humans of doing? From the Inuit in Canada to the tribes in the Amazon, the Bedoin in the Sahara to the airconditioned cities of the Middle East, from submarines to outer space, humans can survive.
If the water rises a metre, we build a wall. If the sun is too hot, we build shade. Seriously, the idea that man needs natural selection to survive 0.5C is beyond absurd but the “executive director of Lancet Countdown” says we are doomed?
Who is this? This is not Lancet, the famous medical journal. No, it is a rogue and opportunist climate group “Climate change is a crisis we can turn into once in generation opportunity to improve public-health”. Of course we cannot survive, without Lancet Countdown and their wisdom. Carpetbaggers. Adapting to their business environment and just making it up. Then the editor of Lancet
Countdown may prosper, grow rich, have a large family and it is a form of business survival of the fittest. Deceit.
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I notice that whatever is supposed to kill humanity off is not mentioned. `Heatwave’ appears. Ptui. A `Heatwave’ is just cloudless skies, accompanied by little wind. The cause: a long-lived anticyclone. Taking clothing off, staying in shade and application of water internally and externally fixes any problem there.
As TdeF says: if shade is needed, we make it. We invented straw hats to keep our brains from being fried from too much sun (aka heat). They’re very effective. Man evolved in the tropics as a tropical animal. That’s where most of the human population still lives. We are bipedal with an upright posture because it greatly reduces the surface area we present to the sun—the major source of heat—and simultaneously presents our largest surface areas of our bodies—our torso—to the breezes for better cooling. Not enough water? We sweat. We’re mostly fur-less with the most or the fur we do have on our heads. Well, I am. I can’t say how hirsute a gorilla suit these brainless authors wear under their clothes.
We are perhaps one of the best adapted animals on this planet to hot climates—with very efficient and effective adaptations.
If a change in average temperature of above 0.5°C is enough to kill us, then we would have evolved to be like migratory birds: heading South for the Northern Winter then North for the Southern one. The diurnal temperature can change anywhere from 10°C to 20°C. How do we adapt? By adding or removing clothing.
The seasonal temperature changes can be easily 30°C Easily. Outside the tropics. Sometimes it’s more.
It’s cold which kills. If shelter from the cold is needed, we make it. We invented clothing to survive the Ice Ages and fur hats to keep our heads warm, with a flap on each side so our ears don’t fall off. If we still need to wear clothing, then it’s not hot and nobody will die. We use clothing to regulate our thermal comfort zone. And when it is really cold, we burn black rocks to keep warm.
So what’s 0.5° – 2°C? Nothing.
And these Brainless idiots couldn’t remember any of that? This is nothing more than Sheer Pseudo Science, mere Clueless Propaganda.
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Make that: We are perhaps one of the best adapted land animals
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And ocean. Consider our boats. A simple idea, but when did you see a giraffe in a boat? Ship technology allowed us to reach the poles before we could fly. Even the aqualung, Jaques Cousteau in 1943 or the simple snorkel. Just two months ago I was enjoying a walk in the Bora Bora lagoon, on the bottom of the lagoon surrounded by coral and tropical fish and one stingray called Cindy, thanks to compressed air and a pop on hard hat. My hair did not even get wet! It was both weird and wonderful. Man has mastered sea travel, if not living under the ocean. We have done the same with the amazing 1880s train station St.Michels in Paris on the banks of the seine. Prefabricated and hot riveted in steel it was sunk into the mud. You would not know it. Next time you are in Paris, visit the station and you are actually in Seine. Then you get the Nederlands, especially Holland. Technically the entire airport is underwater. How will we cope? Easily.
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Watts probably more than likely has the MBBS and is not really a possessor of a doctorate.
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comment has gone into moderation.
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To WXcycles at #11;
Interestingly, the caption to the coral bleaching photos refers to hotter water, whereas the article states colder water. Diliberate, perhaps, as most folks would just check the picture?
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Ah … Pavlov’s-dog editing, it seems.
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23 Apr: Sierra Club: The Case for Climate Reparations
Who should pay the costs for climate-change-related disasters?
by Jason Mark
(This article appeared in the May/June 2018 edition with the headline “The Case for Climate Reparations.”)
1 COMMENT ONLY AT TIME OF POSTING:
Daryl Geiss: Wow. What a bunch of drivel. You people are certifiably insane
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/2018-3-may-june/feature/the-case-for-climate-reparations
23 Apr: UConn: Daily Campus: “Climate Justice: Conversations Across Barriers and Borders” explores climate change inequality
By Gabriella Debenedictis
1 COMMENT ONLY AT TIME OF POSTING:
Wm Armstrong: Meaning: Give us money and funding because you have it and we do not. Every single time a group such as this says anything using the word justice, it ends up being a demand for money.
http://dailycampus.com/stories/2018/4/23/climate-justice-conversations-across-barriers-and-borders-explores-climate-change-inequality
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One comment on the first article..
“The only reason those fires caused 10 Billion in damages is because groups like the Sierra Club kept people from clearing out dead brush and creating fire lanes which caused the fire to easily reach developed areas. There were far larger fires in Arizona 15 years ago, but fire lanes and some clean up of brush and dead wood kept the fires from reaching many developed areas. You want to blame global climate change for the idiocy of your own policies.”
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Politicians make or save their careers blaming their greed and failures on “climate change”. From the Moonbeam Gov. or CA to the mayor of Tampa. When they were concerned that hurricane Irma would come ashore in the Tampa area the mayor was already blaming climate change. The problem being that his government and those proceeding him had allowed development in traditional tidal flow areas with absolutely no protection from tidal surge due to tropical storms.
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What exactly is climate change inequality? Does it mean that the climate changes more or less for someone than it does for someone else? Or…?
Same question about climate justice.
In spite of my making fun of their complaints, the climate may change or not as it pleases. And these people are imagining things that don’t exist. And the foolish among us will follow them right down that road.
As the roulette pitchman says, “Round and round it goes and where it stops, nobody knows.
There are an infinite number of imagined crimes out there waiting for someone to discover them.
In the meantime we have two nations with irresponsible leaders threatening nuclear disaster, one as of right now and the other in the future. And the Sierra Club want’s me to worry about climate change?
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Hell no.
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I believe Climate Justice is: “everybody is entitled to a stable climate”. That’s what I read on one of their articles anyway.
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I thought a stable was a place to keep horses. How dumb of me. Now I’ll have to move all those horses to make room for the climate.
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“The authors stress that they underestimated the adaptability of the coral populations in most of their estimates. The only bad news part of their model analysis was that populations might become more sensitive to random heatwaves. Given that this relies on IPCC model forecasts of ocean temperatures, I remain unconcerned.
Despite this capacity for adaptation, our model predicts that coral populations would become increasingly sensitive to random thermal fluctuations such as ENSO cycles or heat waves, which corresponds well with the recent increase in frequency of catastrophic coral bleaching events.”
“The Authors stress that they underestimated the adaptability of coral populations……………”
This truck driver stresses that the GBR has been around some 1/2 million years in one form or another and has survived all that time despite massive glaciations with colder temperatures and sea levels dropping 400′, the high temps of the Holocene Climatic Optimum, and the gradually rising SLR of the Holocene, and everything in between and much more before and thus anyone that would underestimate it’s adaptability to pH, temperature changes, or changes in sea level is an idiot no matter how many degrees and academic honors they hold and cannot possibly write or say something worth taking the time to read or hear.
That being said nothing stays the same on this dynamic planet as the horn corals and various other fossils I have collected myself right here in Indiana makes clear.
I wasn’t always so skeptical bordering on cynical. But this kind of stuff from those that supposedly know so much more than me, made me that way.
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G’day truckie. Logical thought tells us that coral reefs cannot form in deep water and the GBR is on the edge of the continental shelf. Let google earth be your friend – The water not far east of the GBR is over 200M deep. Even on the coast side it is around 50 M deep.
The change from shallow, when you are trying not to scratch yourself when swimming over coral to deep, where the sea bottom is far beyond view is profound. The transition is instantaneous. Experiencing that for the first time was an unforgettable experience. I felt like I was flying and felt an instant of panic.
A reef cannot form at that depth, so it must have formed when sea level was 50+ M lower as a fringing reef, that would be during the ice age. As the holocene progressed and sea level rose SLOWLY the coral grew to the sky, building on the rubble of dead coral. Like everything in nature the new replaces the old.
The GBR is binary, either there is living coral in the upper tidal few meters or it is deep to a rubble bottom. The edge is near vertical.
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Reef Management. What the Reef really needs is a strong management team. Nominate your favorite nephew. Dream jobs available, no qualifications required.
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First, the life or death of corals: the whole world does not care!
Second, NUL can not intervene to block or divert the millions (billions?) Of sub-oceanic volcanoes. These magmatic hot springs of several thousand degrees still support life underwater and submarine for species of great depths that swim in the most toxic places that can be!
Corals – unable to flee or protect themselves – are experiencing these climate changes from the ‘center of the Earth’. This is so for billions of years and still for other billions of years
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[…] Full post Back to top Back to Science News Print this page TOPICSUK News […]
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For alarmists it’s scary and strange,
That corals can thrive through a range,
Of many degrees,
Temperature in the seas,
And not perish from mild climate-change.
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[…] Full post Archives […]
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The corals don’t stand a chance and they’re doomed I tell ya doomed!
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“We’ll all be rooned” said Hanrahan
“before the year is out.”
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Isn’t it interesting that a species steadfastly refuses to die just because we humans say it should? Or perhaps, isn’t it ironic that a species steadfastly refuses to die because we say it should?
Either way that reef has been through whatever was thrown at it for apparently hundreds of thousands of years and it’s still there. And no matter what may be happening to it today, how can we stop it? Are we going to toss civilization down the drain for the sake of the corals, maybe only to find out that it made no difference? I doubt it.
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Somewhat off-topic, but here is another interesting view of global warming and its cause(s): https://cfrankdavis.wordpress.com/2018/04/23/when-suspicion-becomes-conviction/
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I’m bemused by the wails of doom about the Great Barrier Reef.
One look at a map proves everything that the climate tragics say is wrong.
Here is a view from Google Earth.
You can see the vast size of the coral atolls in French Polynesia. As the volcanoes they are on have cooled and fallen below sea level the fringing barrier reefs have gotten larger and larger. For tens of millions of years. So those reefs have thrived through hundreds of ice ages and hot periods and they’re just as beautiful as they ever were…and they clearly are getting bigger.
That there is immediate proof that the GBR is not threatened, and that corals can adapt quite easily even if there was any global warming going on. Which there’s not*.
(* March 2018 global temperature in the UAH satellite dataset was exactly the same as March 2002.)
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The Red Thumber obviously hates facts.
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Red thumbers do the red thumb thing because they must….its a programmed Leftist DNA-deep response to hearing the truth. Unless they are attempting to create a division and upset and upheaval, they just aren’t happy.
Interesting, Jesus said “Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.”
( Matt 5:9 ).
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I was wondering when the talking point post would come out. Go forth and spread the word folks, “there’s nothing to see”.
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Greetings to all fellow Reefer Madness buffs:
From the purely geological perspective, whatever is living and forming the GBR cannot be indigenous to this area. Geologically, the GBR is very young, so the critters making it would have had to come from someplace else (if memory serves, the coralline zygotes are planktonic, and attach to a substrate, eventually building a calcareous exoskeleton as they mature).
Any changes in MSL are going to affect the status of the reef itself, and the constituent organisms either adapt, move (as they are able), or go extinct. That modern scleractinian corals can be traced from the mid-Triassic is a testament to their ability to colonize, adapt, and survive, without regard to what is happening around them.
I guess I’m at a loss as to why these researchers do not seem to have a clue about what happens to organisms who are stressed. As Jeff Goldblum (“Dr. Ian Malcolm”) said, “Life finds a way.”
Regards,
Vlad
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Vlad says “That modern scleractinian corals can be traced from the mid-Triassic is a testament to their ability to colonize, adapt, and survive, without regard to what is happening around them”.
Please send this impt comment to Oz Chief Scientist Dr Alan Finkel who PM Turnbull has great faith in. I gather the honorable PM is worried about the fate of the GBR – so more funding for JCU no doubt. The imminent LIA is nigh but I suspect Dr Alan Finkel is not recommending any research addressing the impact of this likely “severe cooling” 40-70 my event (based on the duration of the former Maunder & Dalton GM/LIA events circa ~1645-1715 & ~1790/1830).
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Typo: my should read year. As a geo I have my’s on my brain 24/7.
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Save the lantana! Save the Indian Mynah! Save the blackberry! Save the European carp! Save the cane toads! Save the Collingwood supporters!
Start with the rarer, more fragile stuff. After that you can save the flamin’ coral.
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Save the UN, Save the EU, the BBC, ABC et AL…(Irony tag,)
in case cli-sci warmies are reading this.
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Just as well you added that irony tag. As a rule I don’t strike my serfs, but…
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M
That ought to depend on what Beth is saving them from
Now if it was from a surplus of research grants and like – –
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meanwhile –
why do GACW zealots consider cold weather to be “BAD”?
24 Apr: Bloomberg: Snow Might Have Cooled U.K. Growth
By Jill Ward
The U.K. economy probably slowed in the first quarter because of snowy weather, which could give Bank of England policy makers pause for thought when they take their next decision on interest rates. Output probably dropped to 0.3 percent in the three months through March from 0.4 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey…
GRAPH Snowed Under
First-quarter growth has probably been damped by ***BAD weather
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/snow-might-have-cooled-u-k-growth
and hot weather to be “GOOD”?
23 Apr: Daily Mail: The heat is OFF! Scorching sun gives way to rain this week with highs struggling to reach 60F as parts of Britain ‘rewind to winter’ with -5C chills and SNOW
By Stewart Paterson
The mini-heatwave is set to come to an end tomorrow as rain hits the country with temperatures struggling to reach 60F (15.5C).
Scotland and northern England may even experience lows of -5C with snow and ice returning in a ‘rewind to winter’.
Luckily many Britons have spent the weekend lapping up the warm weather, flocking to beaches and parks…
On Sunday people continued to make the most out of the last of the ***GOOD weather, flocking in large numbers to beaches, parks and beauty spots nationwide…
Met Office forecaster Greg Dewhurst said: ‘After a warm Sunday for the Marathon, there’s a big change ahead, with much cooler temperatures and rain or showers…
‘But at least most people are used to the cool weather after the cold March and start to April.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5645465/UK-weather-Scorching-sun-gives-way-rain-week-highs-15C.html
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It seems that the cold spring has affected the lambing season. What a surprise! Now the talk is of increasing prices because of shortages. Who would have thought it? Sorry no link; read it earlier but didn’t store the info except in the old grey matter.
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Your excuse for not providing references will be unsatisfactory to Harry Twinotter.
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I guess so! 😉
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Coral reefs producing cloud cover to shield themselves from the heat ?
Agriculture sensitive to rainfall in Australia? Not sure about the first one but the second one has me speechless and wondering how much money they spent on that research .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-24/coral-build-cloud-umbrellas-to-protect-themselves-from-sun/9685306
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Numba 24 seems to have summarized the content of all of his posts here in the last line.
Well done, PhD material.
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“COLD” is “terrible”, “weird”, “strange”!
22 Apr: LacrosseTribune: Storms bring in snowiest, coldest April — and cause plenty of problems
by Jourdan Vian
Winter was like a ***terrible houseguest for the Coulee Region this year: It arrived late and stayed way too long.
The ***weird winter weather, culminating Wednesday in La Crosse’s third snowstorm this month, has left some people scrambling and hoping for sun and others ***worried about what it means.
“We saw almost more snow in April than we’ve seen in meteorological winter. It was a tenth less than that,” National Weather Service meteorologist Jeff Boyne said Friday.
Meteorological winter, which runs from December to February, brought 24.7 inches of snow in total. In comparison, last week’s two separate snowstorms brought the total for April to 19 inches in La Crosse, breaking the previous 45-year-old record by two inches. The average monthly snowfall for April is 1.7 inches.
Not only has April been snowy, the temperatures on days when it’s not snowing have been significantly below normal.
“April has been extremely cold for a while now. We’re at our coldest April right now,” Boyne said.
There’s a two-degree difference from the record, which was set in 1874. A significant warm-up could prevent La Crosse from breaking the record — which is an average high of 39.3 in 1874 — but it won’t make enough of a difference to make this year anything but ***strange.
“We should be in the low 60s right now, and we’ve been nowhere near that,” Boyne said…
???“We seem to concentrating more on the cold, because we’ve been so warm the last couple of winters,” Boyne said. “That makes it seem like the winter was much more severe than it actually was.”
Three of the winters in the last 10 years have been in the top eight warmest ever. People got used to it, he said…
“It has a great impact, considering it’s the 19th of April and I just saw someone cross-country skiing across the golf course,” said Forest Hills general manager Keith Stoll Thursday morning.
Typically by this time, golfers have been out on the course for weeks. Last year, Forest Hills opened March 27, and it usually opens in early April…READ FOR MORE PROBLEMS
***The record-setting weather is causing concern among environmentalists, including Coulee Region Sierra Club board member Avery Van Gaard.
“We’re going from getting 6 inches of snow to possible 68 degree weather in the span of under a week. That’s certainly something to be interested at if not alarmed at,” Van Gaard said.
The ***strange weather events have a serious impact on local wildlife, such as migrating songbirds that struggled to find food and water as they came back to the area.
“We had birds that were dying because they couldn’t get access to water that was melted,” she said…
She directed people to the Earth Fair in Myrick Park scheduled for April 29, where local organizations including the Coulee Region Sierra Club will be on hand to talk about options for going green, and encouraged people to research climate change and policies that can help mitigate it for themselves.
“Being more educated is never a bad thing,” she said. “Getting educated makes me feel a lot less hopeless.”
If people take the time to learn more about the climate, whether it’s from a scientific perspective or policy one, that’s a good place to start the conversation, she said…
http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/storms-bring-in-snowiest-coldest-april—-and/article_fb2e5824-03c0-56e9-8df6-f35d3fc9eac1.html
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The other corollary of adaption is that rapid adaption indicates the genes are already in place. That in turn means this has all happened before. Qeulle surprise, especially to researchers who believe that the world started adaption only on the day they started studying it, that all change is driven by humans and that left to itself, nothing changes. No change is natural. We can only be thankful to geologists like Prof Ian Plimer for pointing out that this is nonsense.
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there is a difficult to navigate transcript below the video.
LISTEN from 33mins29secs in: question from Ben Storrow, ClimateWire;
17 Apr: VIDEO: C-Span: California Governor Jerry Brown at the National Press Club, moderated by Bloomberg’s Andrea Snyder Edney, 111th president of the National Press Club
https://www.c-span.org/video/?444172-1/california-governor-jerry-brown-speaks-national-press-club
***3 BILLION WILL DIE FROM “FATAL LETHAL” CAGW HEAT EVENTS! HE’S NOT CALLED GOV MOONBEAM FOR NOTHING:
19 Apr: CNS News: Jerry Brown: ***3 Billion Will Die from Global Warming
By Melanie Arter
California Gov. Jerry Brown predicted that if carbon emissions aren’t reduced, ***billions of people will die from “heat events,” and one billion will be subjected to vector diseases.
“When you pick up the paper or turn on cable news, you’d think it’s another planet. It’s all about the nonsense of Washington, and carbon emissions are growing, and we’ve got to radically turn that around, or the migrations you’re seeing now are going to be child’s play,” Brown told reporters Tuesday at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.
“We’re going to have widespread disruption, more conflicts, more terrorism, more insecurity because of climate disruption. The prospect is ***3 billion people on this planet will be subject to ***fatal lethal heat events – 3 billion – and 1 billion will be subjected to vector diseases that they’re not now subject to now,” he said. “This is a horror.”…
“This is a horror, and that’s why I spend so much time working on climate change even though it is not a big, hot political issue – not in California, certainly not in Washington, and unfortunately, not in a number of other countries, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a big problem. It’s a huge problem…
When asked what states can reasonably do about climate change, Brown said, “California has adopted an extension of this cap and trade program, which will give us 20 percent of our greenhouse gas reduction. That’s a very important measure that would have gone out of existence in 2020, and that measure was voted by Republicans. It wouldn’t have passed without Republican support.”…
“We have an Under Two Coalition – keep the temperature under two degrees Centigrade from growing, and we have over 200 signatories that represent more than a third of the world’s wealth. Is it enough? No. Is the world on the right track? No. Does disaster loom? Yes, and I’m doing what I can to motivate people. People are asleep,” Brown said…
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/melanie-arter/california-governor-predicts-billions-will-die-heat-because-climate#utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=cns&utm_campaign=a-GovJerryBrownBILLIONSWillDieFromClimateChange
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Twitter: Ben Storrow, E&E News/Climatewire
19 Apr Tweet: States are cutting carbon. States are cutting carbon. States are, err, what’s that you say? A bill to prioritize housing around transit failed in California?
(LINKS TO: Plan to build housing — and cut CO2 — fails in Legislature by Debra Kahn, E&E News
A sweeping proposal to solve California’s housing crisis and reduce greenhouse gases met an early end in the state Legislature on Tuesday, but it spurred a conversation that observers hope will eventually force the state to reckon with its land use issues…
18 Apr Tweet: California Gov. @JerryBrownGov was in D.C. yesterday talking presidential politics, olive oil making and, oh yeah, CAFE standards: “Mr. Pruitt has met his match”…***LINK
https://twitter.com/bstorrow?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
***linked headline has changed to:
18 Apr: Jerry Brown pledges to defy Pruitt on rollbacks
by Benjamin Storrow
California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) lambasted the Trump administration yesterday during a visit to Washington, D.C., suggesting he would defy EPA if it tries to roll back California’s stringent greenhouse gas standards for cars…
E&E behind paywall, can’t access cached versions today.
no doubt there’s more to listen to in the C-Span video, including Pruitt comments, but it’s not playing smoothly for me. the C-Span page says the event hasn’t been broadcast as yet (not sure if that is so).
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btw when Jerry Brown says 3 billion will die from CAGW, no-one in the audience (including HuffPo) laughs out loud or questions him.
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Maybe the audience are being polite and have read the end to the age of abundance, i.e. getting colder?
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23 Apr: ChippewaHerald Wisconsin: Ask the Weather Guys: Has this April set any records?
by STEVEN A. ACKERMAN and JONATHAN MARTIN — UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences
Q: Has this April set any records?
A: A fitting climax to a remarkable first two-thirds of April occurred last Wednesday as we received 7.2 inches of snow in Madison, more than doubling the previous daily record for snowfall (3.4 inches in 1912) on April 18.
There have only been two years with heavier snow events later than Wednesday’s. The most was 7.8 inches on April 30, 1994, and the second was a 7.3-inch event on April 23, 1910.
Though there are too many remarkable aspects of this event to detail here, mention of a few of them is certainly warranted. First of all, the first two-thirds of the month have left us 12.8 degrees below normal for the month — the coldest first 20 days of April ever in Madison…
And we had a chance today to tie the all-time record for latest calendar day on which 60 degrees is first reached, set in 1904 on April 23. Through Saturday, we had not seen 60 degrees since Dec. 4, with Monday’s forecast calling for a high of 62. But on Sunday it hit 62.
http://chippewa.com/news/state-and-regional/ask-the-weather-guys-has-this-april-set-any-records/article_5da22d85-152f-563b-88be-f1b82f335596.html
VIDEO: 2mins29secs: 24 Apr: Fox11: Repairs will be made to snow-damaged Brown County Arena
by Ben Krumholz
Snow on the Arena’s dome dropped 50 to 60 feet, crashing through the roof of the building that covers the Arena’s lobby and offices for PMI Entertainment Group and the Greater Green Bay Convention and Visitors Bureau.
With the roof caved in over its conference room, the convention and visitors bureau is temporarily calling the Tundra Lodge home.
“The snowfall is 1 in 100 years, so the last time we saw snow like that, the two buildings weren’t even there, so it is kind of a freak situation,” said Brad Toll, President and CEO of Greater Green Bay Convention and Visitors Bureau.
“It was basically an avalanche off the roof,” said Paul Fontecchio, the director of Brown County’s Public Works Department…
http://fox11online.com/news/local/repairs-will-be-made-to-snow-damaged-brown-county-arena
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O/T but a stand taken
“Dishonourable Doctorate”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/04/24/new-rules-2/
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And comments in Readers Tips below that
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That’s really heartening!
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King Geo is on the right track. However, the current Great Barrier Reef is the last in a series of 4 commencing 11,000 yrs BP. They formed at the deepest water depth of 145 m and at positions correlating with the still stands as identified by extraordinary. geologist R Bainbridge, 1960. So what makes the paper so good on the 4 reef positions. They have all been subject to the rotary lie detector and subsequent detailed analysis. Worth a thorough read
IODP Expedition 325: Great Barrier Reefs Reveals Past
Sea-Level, Climate and Environmental Changes Since the
Last Ice Age
doi:10.2204/iodp.sd.12.04.2011
32 Scientific Drilling, No. 12, September 2011
by Yusuke Yokoyama, Jody M. Webster, Carol Cotterill, Juan Carlos Braga,
Luigi Jovane, Heath Mills, Sally Morgan, Atsushi Suzuki,
and the IODP Expedition 325 Scientists
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Interesting that the 145 metre Mark is the depth at which the coral formed; initially I assume.
This is roughly 15 to 20 metres below the oceanic low water Mark during the depth of the last ice age about 25,000 years ago.
The last big melt which ended about 10,000 years back saw an ocean level high which subsequently oscillated down through several lows with the last one about 4 ft higher than present 2,000 years ago.
Does this fit in?
KK
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Reference to Bainbridge should be R Fairbridge Scientific American, 1960 Vol 204 (May) pp 70-9.
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Vol 203 May 1960 actually (though the pagination is correct).
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The actual article at https://www.jstor.org/stable/24940478?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents has Vol 202
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Dr Rhodes Fairbridge was a great academic geologist who was born in Pinjarra south of Perth in 2014. He died in 2006 in New York aged 92. He was a world expert in climate change and did not believe in the “Theory of AGW”, just like most geologists. Dr Fairbridge was awarded his doctorate in geology at UWA (also my alma mater) in 1941 and spent some time there teaching geology – lucky students. Unfortunately I never met the great man. He had left for Colombia University in Manhattan (where he became Professor of Geology) well before I enrolled at UWA in the early 1970’s.
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Hi KG
Assuming birth in 1914.
It’s good to hear about real people who have their feet on the ground.
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Used to occasionally anchor at Wilkie Island when I was trawling during the nineties and early noughties… mostly we anchored at Hay Is to the north of Wilkie or Hannah Is further south and east… Depending on where the best prawns were, or wherever you ended up at daylight when it was all much of a muchness.
The only thing that ever went extinct were the Fishermen… and only because of ecofascism. There was always plenty of prawns, fish and coral during the decades I was a fisherman… but whatever.
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Okay so we can’t dig coal on the Great Barrier Reef anymore and that’s fair enough I suppose but no way I’m giving up eating It .
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Microatolls of dead coral, coral terraces, along the Queensland coast suggest sea levels rapidly fell by ~1m over one thousand years 2500 – 1500 yrs BP and that the corals flourished in warmer waters than today.
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23 Apr: ClimateChangeNews: Megan Darby: Commonwealth leaders express ‘grave concern’ about climate change impacts
Without urgent action, global warming could push 100 million people into poverty by 2030, warns coalition of developed and vulnerable countries
Leaders from the loose coalition issued a statement (LINK) affirming their commitment to the Paris Agreement at the conclusion of a week-long meeting in London.
With more than half of members coming from small islands and the world’s poorest countries, the summit highlighted their vulnerability to climate-driven disasters and cemented ties with developed countries UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand…
Another section recognised “the imperative to transition to clean forms of energy”, encouraging members to back the International Solar Alliance and similar initiatives…
20 Apr: The Commonwealth: Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting Communiqué “Towards a Common Future”
Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Growth
Heads emphasised that improved access to reliable and affordable energy will create an enabling investment environment for successful industrialisation…
A More Sustainable Future
Vulnerability and Climate Change
24. Heads expressed grave concern that without urgent action to mitigate climate change, reduce vulnerability and increase resilience, the impacts of climate change could push an additional 100 million people into poverty by 2030. Heads recognised that temperature and sea level rise and other adverse impacts of climate change are a significant reality and risk to many of the Commonwealth’s most vulnerable member countries. They renewed their commitment under the Paris Agreement to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Heads welcomed the ratification by all member countries of the Paris Agreement and encouraged member countries that have not yet done so to consider ratifying and implementing the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol and the Doha Amendment for parties to the Kyoto Protocol. Heads record the commitments made to the Green Climate Fund and encourage member countries to fulfil them…
25. Recalling the 2015 Commonwealth Leaders’ Statement on Climate Action, Heads expressed their resolve to build on this work, and collectively agreed to engage with the Fiji and Poland-led Talanoa Dialogue. They expressed their determination that the Paris Agreement work programme be completed at COP24. They expressed their support for the global approach led by the International Civil Aviation Organisation and International Maritime Organisation in addressing greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and shipping respectively, consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. They agreed that mechanisms need to be established to promote enhanced participation, particularly of young people, in climate policy implementation frameworks at all levels, including the Paris Agreement.
26. Heads expressed support for a range of innovative financing solutions, both public and private, and including disaster risk insurance, to enhance adaptive capacity and boost resilience, noting the importance of the Commonwealth Climate Finance Access Hub, among others, in supporting member countries. They called for consensus on the use of vulnerability measures to target appropriate support to those member countries most affected by natural disasters, including extreme weather events, dependent on need…
Natural Disasters
27. Heads expressed deep concern about the increasingly devastating impact of natural disasters on people and property across the Commonwealth, especially among the most vulnerable and marginalised in society. They recognised the importance of disaster preparedness in reducing the impact of natural disasters and affirmed their commitment to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. They encouraged the Secretariat to collaborate with international organisations, including disaster response agencies, to better support member countries that suffer severe impacts from natural disasters. They encouraged other international organisations, including the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Development Assistance Committee, to consider options for appropriate funding mechanisms to assist small and other vulnerable states, particularly small islands and developing states, to mitigate, reduce and recover from natural disasters.
Sustainable Development of Oceans
28. Heads highlighted the close linkages between the ocean, wellbeing and prosperity of the people of the Commonwealth, and recognised the opportunities for sustainable economic development from the ocean and coasts. They expressed alarm at the deteriorating health of the world’s ocean, which impacts every country and poses an existential threat to many Commonwealth communities. Heads identified climate change, including sea level rise and acidification, biodiversity loss, overfishing, and plastic pollution as some of the most significant pressures on the ocean, and called for ambitious, coordinated global action. They affirmed the Commonwealth’s strength in sharing experience and expertise, and recognised its vital role in building capacity in small and other vulnerable states.
29. Heads adopted the Commonwealth Blue Charter, setting out the principles by which Commonwealth member countries will lead international efforts by sustainably developing and protecting their ocean. They committed to take action to safeguard the ocean for future generations. Heads agreed to establish Action Groups on ocean issues led by Commonwealth member countries, which will collaborate with partners at national, regional, and international levels, in addressing identified priority ocean issues of member countries. Heads mandated the Secretariat to take forward a Commonwealth Blue Charter plan of action to support this.
Sustainable Use of Energy and Natural Resources
30. Heads committed to work together for the prudent and sustainable use of energy and natural resources and recognised the critical importance of sustainable energy to economic development. They agreed to share best practice in effectively developing, governing and managing natural resources on the basis of sustainability, equity, transparency, good governance and wealth creation, including via the Commonwealth Secretariat’s ongoing programme of technical assistance on natural resource management; as well as the Commonwealth’s Blue Charter initiative in relation to marine resources; and the Commonwealth Office of Civil and Criminal Justice Reform, in relation to model regulatory instruments.
31. Recognising the imperative to transition to clean forms of energy in view of article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement and the untapped potential of solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources to promote sustainable economic growth, Heads encouraged cooperation among member countries, and partnerships with relevant organisations, including the International Solar Alliance of 121 solar resource rich countries.
Heads highlighted the contribution of the Queen’s Commonwealth Canopy to the conservation of forests for future generations, and encouraged member countries who have not already done so to participate in this initiative…ETC
http://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/commonwealth-heads-government-meeting-communiqu%C3%A9-%E2%80%9Ctowards-common-future%E2%80%9D
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big numbers day!
24 Apr: Daily Mail: Severe droughts affecting up to 400 MILLION people in Europe could become a regular occurrence if global temperatures rise by 3°C
Droughts in Europe will become more severe as global temperatures rise
Up to 400 million people could be affected by the more-widespread droughts
Some countries could spend more than a quarter of the year in drought
The Mediterranean region will be hit the hardest with droughts lasting up to seven months
By Joe Pinkstone
A global team of researchers, led by scientists at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), used mathematical models to look at how temperatures would impact on extreme weather conditions.
Hydrologist Dr Luis Samaniego, one of the two main authors of the study, told MailOnline: ‘This will have great implications for agriculture, forestry, water supply and tourism.
‘If the models are right, we should start thinking about how to adapt and mitigate these changes. The time to act is now.’…
Scandinavia is likely to get off lightly as increased rainfall will offset the drought prevalence…
The Mediterranean region, however, will see the most severe case with nearly half (49 per cent) of the region affected…
Dr Samaniego: ‘For some parts of the Iberian Peninsula, we project that the drought could even last more than seven months.’
Dr Stephan Thober, co-author of the study from UFZ, added: ‘A three-degree temperature rise also means that the water content in the soil would decline by 35 millimetres up to a depth of two metres…
The researchers also stress that mankind can still try and reduce the severity of droughts.
‘The effects of global warming can be reduced in part with some technical adjustments. However, these are costly,’ said Dr Samaniego
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5647289/Droughts-affecting-400-MILLION-people-Europe-regular-occurrence.html
23 Apr: Science Daily: Climate change intensifies droughts in Europe
Researchers model the effects of the global temperature rise
Date: April 23, 2018
Source: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ
According to the modelling results of the author team — which involved scientists from the USA, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in addition to the UFZ — if global warming rises by three degrees, the drought regions in Europe will expand from 13 percent to 26 percent of the total area compared to the reference period of 1971 to 2000…
Journal Reference:
1.L. Samaniego, S. Thober, R. Kumar, N. Wanders, O. Rakovec, M. Pan, M. Zink, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, A. Marx. Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts. Nature Climate Change, 2018; LINK
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180423110822.htm
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23 Apr: Bloomberg: Latest Climate Threat for Coastal Cities: More Rich People
By Christopher Flavelle
Building codes, insurance premiums push middle class inland
‘Climate gentrification’ starving tourism economies of workers
Around the country, the government’s response to extreme weather is pushing lower-income people like the Barons away from the waterfront, often in the name of safety. Those homes, in turn, are often replaced with more costly houses, such as those built higher off the ground and are better able to withstand storms. Housing experts, economists and activists have coined the term “climate gentrification.”…
Ever-stricter building requirements make homes more expensive to construct. Rising premiums for federal flood insurance make them costlier to live in. And when local governments issue bonds to pay for sea walls and other protections, as Miami did last year, taxes are often raised, further increasing costs…
Residents, researchers and housing advocates say global warming is beginning to shift not just the physical characteristics of coastal cities, but their economic and demographic makeup as well. And local officials are starting to worry about it…
“Hospitality is the backbone of the economy here,” said Christine Hurley, the county official responsible for buildings, planning, and code compliance in the Florida Keys. She said the tourism industry can’t function without workers who can afford to live there. “The hotels and the restaurants, are they going to have to start busing people an hour and a half from Miami?”…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/the-latest-climate-threat-for-coastal-cities-more-rich-people
17 Apr: LA Times: Liam Dillon: California lawmakers killed one of the biggest housing bills in the country
The defeat for Senate Bill 827 came in its first legislative hearing, a surprisingly early end for a bill that had attracted national attention. Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) was attempting to tackle two of California’s most pressing issues: the rising cost of housing and the need for development that is consistent with the state’s ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions…
SB 827 would have allowed for the construction of buildings four to five stories tall within half a mile of rail stops in areas, such as parcels zoned for single-family homes, where they are currently not allowed. Additionally, the bill would have eliminated parking minimums in those locations as well as around bus stops with frequent service throughout the day…
Nearly 2 million households in the state spend more than half their income on rent, and California has the nation’s highest poverty rate once housing costs are factored in. The state’s median home value of $535,100 is more than 2½ times the national figure…
In response to all of those concerns, Wiener narrowed the legislation. He reduced allowable height increases to five stories from eight. He also took away the height increases planned near frequently traveled bus routes. And he added measures, such as mandating that developers set aside a portion of their projects for low-income residents, in an effort to allow people of varying incomes to benefit from the new housing.
Those efforts weren’t enough to sway his colleagues, particularly fellow Democrats…
The bill ended up earning four of the seven committee votes it needed to move forward — two Democrats and two Republicans…
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-big-housing-bill-dies-20180417-story.html
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comment in moderation re: 23 Apr: Bloomberg: Latest Climate Threat for Coastal Cities: More Rich People
20 Apr: Slate: Henry Grabar: Why Was California’s Radical Housing Bill so Unpopular?
No interest group was more exposed by the saga of SB 827 than California’s environmental movement. Except for Malthusian tree-huggers who actively seek to reduce the state’s population growth—“California is full!”—virtually every environmentalist agrees that the place to build new housing is along transit lines…
The national Sierra Club opposed SB 827 for the tenuous reason that it’s a “pre-emption” bill that tells cities what to do, like red-state bills that override progressive municipal goals…
At the state level, Sierra Club California argued that allowing more infill development would push more residents to the exurban fringe. What?…
California’s greenhouse gas emissions come largely from transportation, and per capita emissions are higher in less dense, more car-dependent areas like Marin County than in comparatively built-up San Francisco…
The second-least convincing argument against SB 827 came from self-proclaimed mass transit advocates, including some environmentalists who argued that linking density to transit provision would encourage wealthy homeowners to throw trains and buses out of their neighborhoods…
The good news, if there is any, is that the crisis has created a constituency: Just 54 percent of California households own their homes, the third-lowest rate in the nation. If any state were positioned to pass a state law for renters, this is it.
https://slate.com/business/2018/04/why-sb-827-californias-radical-affordable-housing-bill-was-so-unpopular.html
19 Apr: Grist: Californians definitely want a housing bill. Just not this one.
By Nathanael Johnson
Senate Bill 827 (it’s testament to the controversy #SB827 is a thing on Twitter) divided environmentalists. The Natural Resources Defense Council and Environment California backed it because California will only meet its climate goals if Californians get out of their cars, and that won’t happen unless the state makes it possible for more people to live in cities near transit hubs.
The California Sierra Club, on the other hand, straight-up hated the proposal.
“This is a bad bill, and bad bills get killed,” Kathryn Phillips, the director of Sierra Club California, told San Francisco Magazine. “The thing we oppose is the heart of the bill.”
The Sierra Club worried that tying zoning rules to transit stops would lead communities to campaign against public transit. It also feared that development would squeeze out the poor people who rely on transit most…
To get laws passed that will actually reduce vehicle miles traveled and gasoline burned, advocates will need to consolidate that support. “The last piece of the puzzle is getting environmentalists onboard with dense, transit-oriented housing,” (Victoria Fierce, an organizer for the YIMBY group East Bay Forward) said. “Long commutes aren’t just a social justice issue, they are an environmental justice issue.”
https://grist.org/article/californians-definitely-want-a-housing-bill-just-not-this-one/
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registration required for this “premium” article!
23 Apr: New Scientist: Why the hockey stick graph will always be climate science’s icon
Two decades after it was first published, the chart linking carbon emissions and global warming is as relevant as ever, says Olive Heffernan
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2167127-why-the-hockey-stick-graph-will-always-be-climate-sciences-icon/
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It’s not the New Scientist of thirty years ago.
In the current issue obsequies are performed on the Great Barrier Reef with not even a footnote mentioning Peter Ridd’s assessment of its health.
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16 Apr: Irish Mirror: Irish ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ Dylan Creaven found guilty of conning elderly investors out of nearly €4m in boiler room fraud
Dylan Creaven, 44, from Co Clare fleeced pensioners out of their life savings after offering huge returns on worthless carbon credits and inferior diamonds.
Creaven set up two fraudulent companies and financed the setting up of plush ‘boiler room’ office suites in Buchanan House, in upmarket St James’s Square in central London…
Creaven and Andrew Rowe, 41, were relentless in persuading pensioners to part with their savings.
The sales pitch was that the market was growing due to companies having to take into account their carbon footprint and the minimum investment was £5,000 (€5,667)…
Creaven and Rowe were convicted of two counts of conspiracy to defraud and one count of conspiracy to transfer criminal property after a six week trial at Blackfriars Crown Court in London…
Judge David Richardson told Creaven: “You face a substantial sentence and I advise you to get representation.”…ETC
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/wexford-man-reveals-how-10m-12406251
23 Apr: ThisIsMoneyUK: Tony Hetherington: (SCROLL DOWN) Boiler room duo jailed in £3.5m carbon credits scam
Two crooks with a long history of dodgy deals have been jailed after running boiler room frauds that tricked investors out of £3.5million by selling worthless carbon credits and diamonds.
Dylan Creaven, 44, and Andrew Rowe, 41, appeared at Blackfriars Crown Court in London last Thursday. Both were sentenced to ***13 years in prison after being convicted of fraud.
Chris Tarrant, of the Crown Prosecution Service, said: ‘More than 100 victims contacted the police and trading standards to report these crimes, some of whom lost life savings.’
The pair ran Agon Energy Limited and Lanyard Capital Limited, based in smart offices in St James’s Square in Central London.
They cold-called investors with false claims that carbon credits would rocket in value as businesses were forced to compensate for their carbon footprint…
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/experts/article-5642021/Our-savings-paid-stranger-14-years-TONY-HETHERINGTON-investigates.html
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22 Apr: LSE Grantham Institute: Bob Ward: ‘The Mail on Sunday’ admits publishing more fake news about climate change
IPSO launched an investigation into the 5 February 2017 article as a result of my complaint, and eventually ruled that it had breached the Editors’ Code of Practice. On 17 September 2017, the newspaper published a 647-word “adverse adjudication”by IPSO.
But the newspaper did not correct the articles published on 12 and 19 February, so I submitted a second complaint to IPSO.
‘The Mail on Sunday’ has finally accepted today that those articles were also inaccurate and misleading. Its correction, published 14 months later, states…ETC
***It is important to note that IPSO applied the very weakest of veracity tests to the articles by Mr Rose. It did not rule on whether the content was inaccurate, but instead assessed only if they had accurately reported the false allegations made by Dr John Bates.
This episode exposes the disregard for accuracy that is frequently shown by ‘The Mail on Sunday’ and Mr Rose when covering climate change and other issues…
http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/the-mail-on-sunday-admits-publishing-more-fake-news-about-climate-change/
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[…] – Corals already have the genes to survive another 250 years of climate change […]
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Let me offer a correction for clarification:
Actually, coral has what it takes to survive the next 250 million years.
Afterall, they made it through the last 250,000,000 years ir so.
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