As readers of this blog are well aware, two of my hot-buttons are: (1) the claim that CO2 is a heat-trapping gas, and (2) because CO2 is a heat-trapping gas, its presence in the earth’s atmosphere contributes to (or possibly is the main reason we have) global-warming/climate-change/climate-disruption. The Logic Of Science hosted by Fallacy Man is one of many blogs that make these claims. Fallacy Man recently posted a thread on his blog entitled: “6 major problems with a flat earth.” As I understand it, Fallacy Man (a) has chosen “flat-earthers” as the “poster child” for illogical arguments, and (b) asks science-deniers, anti-vaccers, climate-change-deniers and others to revisit their reasoning to see if it contains the same kinds of errors inherent in the flat-earther’s logic.
I decided to do what Fallacy Man asked. Specifically, my logic told me (a) CO2 doesn’t “trap-heat” because heat can’t be trapped, an (b) therefore the argument that the “heat-trapping” property of CO2 gas is the reason CO2 gas in the earth’s atmosphere warms the earth is bogus. When I revisited my logic I couldn’t identify any logic errors similar to the logic errors of flat-earthers. In fact, my logic seemed to be correct. However, just because I can’t identify errors in my logic doesn’t mean errors don’t exist. As a result, I decided to post my logic in brief form on Fallacy Man’s thread and ask him to revisit his logic on the off chance his logic is flawed. For those of you who are interested in this subject and Fallacy Man’s response, please visit URL: https://thelogicofscience.com/2018/07/19/6-major-problems-with-a-flat-earth/#comments.
If you’re trying to kill with laughter then you’re very close to the edge. The Earth is too flat to argue with, just step out of your house and look down the street. Does that look anything but flat? Of course it’s flat.
Good observation, Rob. But is it necesary for the hills to exist on the surface of a sphere? If the Earth was really round, wouldn’t that necessitate everyone in Australia to be standing on their heads to be right side up? And how would they keep from falling off?
I dunno. It’s hard not to conclude that the Earth is flat. I see hills all around me too but still can’t see the Earth as round. It must be flat. 😉
If the Earth was really round, wouldn’t that necessitate everyone in Australia to be standing on their heads to be right side up? And how would they keep from falling off?
Nah, you’ve got it upside down, Roy. It’s you guys who are in danger of falling off. You always look at the globe upside down. Down Under is really Up Above.
Sure, but has anyone ever done a survey of these people to see if they are “climate scientists” or “climate deniers”?
We see the sort of statement where an writer claims the “denier” connection but these are just made-up, with no empirical support.
Firstly Reed I thought Fallacy Man wrote a decent article on the Flat Earth idea but the “climate denier” comparison has been done many times before.
Your response is well reasoned and probably wasted on the unreasonable, I would add the CO2 heat trapping hypothesis fails also on the observation of if past CO2 levels surpassed 400 ppm why isn’t the Earth a desolate moon from the runaway reaction of CO2 burning up the atmosphere?
I know you are all over this but its just a suggestion, good luck.
Given flat earthers believe there’s a 400m high wall if ice at the edge guarded by UN secret soldiers there is zero chance of convincing any of them they are wrong. It’s probably due to some hatred of the norm that drives their belief, much like the CAGW believers. They just hate being told the truth more that they hate the truth itself.
“Given flat earthers believe there’s a 400m high wall if ice at the edge guarded by UN secret soldiers there is zero chance of convincing any of them they are wrong.”
Well if CO2 higher than 400ppm. causes heat death of the biosphere I should point out that the level was well above that all through “The Reign of the Dinosaurs”, so logic means that dinosaurs were killed off by heat not some pesky asteroid.
Reed, I am no scientist, but I have a question regarding your statement that ‘heat cannot be trapped’. Suppose I have a container covered in insulation; surely any heat inside this container is trapped. Can you please explain . .
Regards GeoffW
will always dissapate over time, like your oven when you turn it off. It dissolves into a semantic argument about the definition of trapped, duration to have an effect etc.
Geoffrey, I agree with yarpos—eventually the argument devolves into a definition of the verb “trap.” As such, you are the final arbitrator for your acceptance/rejection of the statement: “CO2 traps heat.”
In the statement: “CO2 traps heat,” the word “trap” is a verb. At one time I queried the internet for a definition of the word “trap” when used as a verb. Below is one such response—see https://www.google.com/search?q=trap&rlz=1C1EODB_enUS545US701&oq=trap&aqs=chrome..69i57j35i39j0l4.3399j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8. If you don’t like this response, by all means perform your own search.
Trap/
verb
verb: trap; 3rd person present: traps; past tense: trapped; past participle: trapped; gerund or present participle: trapping.
1. catch (an animal) in a trap.
Synonyms: confine, cut off, corner, shut in, pen in, hem in, imprison, hold captive
“a rat trapped in a barn”
a) prevent (someone) from escaping from a place.”
“twenty workers were trapped by flames”
Synonyms: snare, entrap, ensnare, lay a trap for
b) have (something, typically a part of the body) held tightly by something so that it cannot move or be freed.
“he had trapped his finger in a spring-loaded hinge”
c) induce (someone), by means of trickery or deception, to do something they would not otherwise want to do.
“I hoped to trap him into an admission”
Synonyms: trick, dupe, deceive, lure, inveigle, beguile, fool, hoodwink
d) BASEBALL, AMERICAN FOOTBALL
catch (the ball) after it has briefly touched the ground.
e) SOCCER
bring (the ball) under control with the feet or other part of the body on receiving it.
Note that of the five above usages of “trap” as a verb, usages c), d), and e) don’t apply to heat and the earth/earth-atmosphere system. This leaves the a) and b) usages. Usage a) specifically contains the word “prevent” as in “prevent from escaping from a place.” To me the implication is clear. If CO2 “traps” heat, then CO2 prevents heat from escaping; and in the case of atmospheric CO2, this means CO2 prevents heat from leaving the earth/earth-atmosphere system. Usage b) implies whatever is trapped “cannot move or be freed” so that if CO2 traps heat, the trapped heat cannot be freed.
Returning to your specific proposition: “Suppose I have a container covered in insulation; surely any heat inside this container is trapped.” I say “no”—at least in the sense that the insulation “traps” the heat. If the container is placed in an environment whose temperature is lower than the temperature of the contents of the container, independent of the insulator material, heat will flow from the material in the container to the environment—thus independent of the material comprising the insulator at a minimum it can be said that at least some of the heat escapes the container, and as such that heat is definitely not “trapped.” If the container is placed in an environment whose temperature is higher than the temperature of the contents of the container, heat will flow from the environment to the material in the container. In this sense someone might say the heat is trapped in the container; but the fact that the container is or isn’t insulated has nothing to do with such “trapping.” Independent of the presence/absence of insulation, all of the heat originally in the container will stay in the container if and only if the environment is at a temperature higher than the container. Similarly, Independent of the presence/absence of insulation, some of the heat in the container will always leave the container if the environment is at a temperature lower than the container. Thus, it might be acceptable to say “temperature can trap heat,” but it is never the case that “insulator X traps heat.”
In the case of a thermos bottle whose insulation is CO2 gas, the heat in the thermos bottle (container) will leave the thermos bottle (container) at a rate faster than would be the case for a vacuum thermos bottle. So in the thermos bottle case, insulation actually results in the more rapid release of heat. As such, if anything I would conclude from the thermos bottle example: “CO2 releases heat.” Not just imagine how difficult it would be to convince the general public that atmospheric CO2 will increase the earth’s temperature if every time such a claim was made it was accompanied by the statement “CO2 releases heat.”
Ok Reed, two points I would raise;
1. What about a super insulator eg the void outside of the earth’s atmosphere? Heat energy through space is not conductive but irradiative. So that heat energy leaving the planet can only be radiative.
2. In non-scientific terminology are we saying that additional CO2 in the atmosphere may act as an extra hurdle (or increased threshold)to the irradiation of energy away from the planet, thus leading to a rise in temperature. Is this in fact the climate warming argument?
GeoffW
We’ve gone from 360 parts per million in the 50’s, to about 410 parts per million CO2 in the 2010’s. The total effect of this increase is theoretical only and can not be measured.
Effectively zero difference. It’s a mathematical construct only to believe that it makes a difference.
The oceans of the world, and the atmospheric water vapor makes a millions time more effect on temperature than CO2 could ever hope to.
… but Greg: you are forgetting the positive feedback of CO2 on the water vapour which amplifies the CO2 effect (or some such Cargo Cultish utterances from the IPCC) 🙂
The only positive feedback I regularly encounter is that evident when trying to grade a flat track with a dozer.
The dozer blade, being forward of the tracks sees a magnified response to any undulations encountered by the tracks and thus lifts more or sinks in more. Which is amplified when the tracks get to that response. And continues on the “dozer woopsies” unless you try to counter.
On the other hand graders have the blade between the front and rear axles so tends to dampen any ground undulations.
Consider the earth heating unevenly as it does with heat over land different to heat over water. This creates low and high pressure systems and air flows from high to low. In this way heat is converted from heat to wind kinetic energy and is dissipated by pushing against the earth changing the earth’s rotation slightly in a classic Newtonian equal and opposite reaction. This heat lost to the momentum of the earth is never radiated anywhere, so radiation is NOT the only way heat leaves the climate system. There are dozen of other ways heat is removed by the earth, photosynthesis uses up the incoming shortwave, entropy (weathering of rocks), lightning (electricity) , thunder – sound energy, endothermic chemical reactions like conversion of cholesterol to vitamin d in mammals. There are many heat sinks other than radiation.
Point 1: What about a super insulator eg the void outside of the earth’s atmosphere? Heat energy through space is not conductive but irradiative. So that heat energy leaving the planet can only be radiative.
You’re correct. Heat energy can leave the earth/earth-atmosphere system only via radiation. The question then becomes “Which situation exhibits the greatest rate of radiative heat loss: (a) an earth without an atmosphere at a surface temperate Tno, or (b) an earth with an atmosphere with an earth surface temperature Tno, and an atmosphere (a) that can absorb a portion of the radiation emitted from the earth’s surface, and (b) whose temperature at the earth surface is Tno but whose temperature decreases with altitude at a rate of approximately 6K per kilometer?”
I do not have the answer to this question. I believe the answer is very complex and no one may have the answer. Here are a few things to think about. To keep things simple, in what follows I am going to assume (a) the earth is a sphere, (b) the temperature of the earth’s surface is everywhere the same, and (c) the temperature of the earth’s atmosphere is a function of altitude but not a function of latitude and/or longitude. These assumptions are obviously not valid; but they can be used as a starting point to at least start a discussion of the complexity of the real-world situation.
In the atmosphereless case, an earth at a temperature of approximately 300K radiates pretty much like a black body. Since the earth is a sphere and since there is no atmosphere, all radiation emitted from the earth’s surface escapes to space. [Note: Radiation emitted from terrain features on the surface of the real earth may travel in a direction towards other surface terrain features. As such, even without an atmosphere, not all of the radiation emitted from the surface of an “undulating” earth escapes to space. Some of the emitted radiation will be intercepted by other earth terrain features.] Since (a) there is no atmosphere, (b) the surface area of a sphere is easily computed, and (c) all the radiation emitted from the earth’s surface escapes to space, it’s relatively straight-forward to compute the rate energy leaves the earth.
The atmosphere-earth case is much more complex. First, even for a spherical earth, some of the radiation emitted from the surface of the earth will be absorbed by the atmosphere and thus not escape to space. Countering this effect is the fact that some radiation emitted from the atmosphere will escape to space. Computing the rate energy is radiated from a volume of gas is extremely complex, much less computing the fraction of that radiated energy that escapes to space. Some of the radiation emitted from a volume of gas will be absorbed by other volumes of gas. Thus, even if the temperature profile of the earth as a function of altitude were known, computing the rate energy emitted from the atmosphere escapes to space is no simple matter. At a minimum, it will depend upon the absorption/emission properties and the densities of the absorptive/radiative gases in the earth’s atmosphere. Keep in mind, that although the earth/earth-atmosphere system can only lose heat via radiation, the atmosphere at various altitudes can be heated by radiation, conduction and convection. I weakly believe convection is the dominant means by which heat gets transferred to the upper atmosphere.
Bottom line, for the case of atmospheric CO2, I don’t really have an opinion as to whether the presence of atmospheric CO2 will result in an increased earth surface temperature. However, for the gas water vapor (the dominant earth atmosphere greenhouse gas), I do have an opinion. My opinion may be wrong, but I’ll hold it until someone proves it to be wrong. Water on the earth and in the earth’s atmosphere goes through a cycle. Water is evaporated from the oceans and becomes water vapor; the water vapor rises in the atmosphere where clouds are formed; and the water vapor in the clouds condenses to water and returns to the earth via precipitation. Converting one gram of water to one gram of water vapor takes a lot of energy. For the most part this energy comes from the water itself with the net effect that evaporation tends to keep the temperature of the water below the ambient air temperature. Thus evaporation of water removes heat from the surface of the oceans and acts to cool the surface of the earth. Via convection the water vapor rises in the atmosphere where it is condensed back into water. This condensation process gives up a lot of heat—primarily to the gaseous molecules in the vicinity of the condensation. Thus, the condensation process tends to heat the gases in the upper atmosphere. Those heated gases (along with the water itself) then radiate energy. Because those heated gases are high in the atmosphere, a photon emitted from a gas near the condensation process has a better chance of escaping to space than a photon of radiation emitted from the surface of the earth. Thus, for water/water vapor, convection acts as a conveyer belt for taking heat away from the surface of the earth where its emission as radiation has a limited chance of escaping to space and moving that heat to an altitude where its emission as radiation has a better change of escaping to space. In my opinion (and opinion only) this process on the whole cools the surface of the earth as is evidenced by the fact that the temperature of the water over a large portion of the earth’s surface is lower than the temperature of the surrounding error. Bottom line, the water cycle acts like an evaporative air conditioner for the earth surface, and such has a net cooling effect on the earth’s surface temperature.
CO2 does not go through a similar evaporation/transportation/condensation process so CO2 doesn’t act like an evaporative air conditioner. As a result, in my mind it’s entirely possible that the greenhouse gas CO2 has a net surface temperature heating effect, and the greenhouse gas water vapor has a net cooling effect.
Point 2: In non-scientific terminology are we saying that additional CO2 in the atmosphere may act as an extra hurdle (or increased threshold) to the irradiation of energy away from the planet, thus leading to a rise in temperature. Is this in fact the climate warming argument?
There are as many climate warming arguments as there are AGW advocates. Thus, I can’t say if this is THE climate warming argument; but it is one argument. And yes, some people say that CO2 in the atmosphere acts as an extra hurdle for the radiation of energy away from the planet. That argument obviously has merit as radiation emitted from the surface of the earth must clear the hurdle. But as noted above, that argument is not the whole story. So although the argument establishes the possibility that atmospheric greenhouse gases will increase the surface temperature of the earth, in my mind the argument don’t even come close to proving the case.
Reed thanks again for your response. There’s a lot to look at and it maybe beyond my understanding. I shall however try. Clearly the problem as I stated is not so simple.
Regards GeoffW
You actually make some good points! I may have to do some more research, but, if the CO2 global warming hypothesis were correct, then there should be a discernible increase in the atmospheric temperatures? i.e., CO2 retaining heat? I’m pretty sure we are only talking about the troposphere and maybe the stratosphere.
I mean, there is great focus on surface temperatures, and that makes sense, because that is where we live, but, if the earth were warming up, then that should be able to be measured in the atmosphere? I’ll go looking while some of you mull………………….
Even coffee in a thermos will cool over time. An incandescent lightbulb gets hot and is in a vacuum insulated by glass. What happens when you switch it off? If the element is really durable, what happens to a CO^2 filled light bulb after you switch it off?
Peter, I can’t quantify the size of the hole; but it is a hole. The hole is just one more level of complexity in an extremely complex problem. See my comment 1.3.2.1.3.
By gum, Corey, I wouldn’t want to get into an argument with you! 🙂 I enjoyed the read at the site you linked to.
With regard to the flat-earth, argument you blokes are torturing yourselves with all kinds of theories, science, calculations and etc., to disprove the existence of a flat earth, probably for the sheer joy of the intellectual exercise.
My explanation is quite simple; take a sextant, observe the altitude of a known heavenly body, observe the exact time from your chronometer, apply these observations to formulae known in spherical trigonometry and Bingo! you will find your geographical position on the surface of the globe. Having done this a number of times and eventually found myself at a desired destination, I’m now quite convinced that the earth is not flat, and distinctly resembles a ball-like object, although a tad larger.
Well then, Dave, your spherical trigonometry argument makes sense and I capitulate. The earth is a sphere, sort of anyway…a little bit of a spare tire at the equator but maybe we can put it on a diet of renewable energy and get it down to a sphere.
I do wonder though if some of use up here are not the ones standing on our heads and in danger of falling off, etc.
The people I mean would be the elected officials, no matter where, who cling to the climate change-renewable energy ideas in spite of no evidence to support them and in spite of good arguments and sound evidence from people who know power generation and distribution that says they are wrong.
But when has being right been a prerequisite for public office? Probably never.
I’m not sure which heavenly body you mean. You didn’t give her name. 😉
It pleases me that you “enjoyed the read at the site I linked to.” As of 23 July 2018, 3:30 Monday afternoon California time, my exchange with Fallacy Man is still ongoing. Although the exchange has been fun for me, it has also been frustrating. I’m sure Fallacy Man is also frustrated. I can stand the frustration if he can.
Fallacy Man is “trapped” in fallacies of his own and others making. CO2 does not trap heat. It does absorb a small amount of IR at some wavelengths but this is not necessarily translated into “heat.” (That is where Arrhenius and Tyndall went wrong: they assumed the absorption of IR raised temperature.)
He has “drunk liberally of the Kool Aid” and hides behind anonymity. I can understand why because so do I. However, I don’t think he is worth debating with: he is right. He seems to be a disciple of Skeptical Science, Rahmstorf, Lewandowsky, Mann, et al. The language of his argument reads familiarly: at one stage I considered the proposition/possibility of this being an avatar of John Cook (who has claimed to write as Lubos Motl, not being the real Lubos Motl of The Reference Frame) but maybe not. He quotes papers which have been severely criticised/debunked like Shakun et al by the likes of Shaviv and others, a paper which received a FAIL grade for attempting to fly in the face of established physics.
Then I remembered the article in National Geographic (March 2015) The Age of Disbelief (which was advertised as The War on Science on the front cover) by Joel Achenbach. It lumped together The Moon Landing as a Hoax, Evolution (arguments against it, including Intelligent Design), Vaccinations, Climate Change Denial, GM Food and The Flat Earth. (I think I have the lot.)
The polemic at The Logic of Science reads so similarly. Pity neither author (if they are different) understands physics. Both pieces are just an excuse to categorize any and every critique of CAGW aka CC as Denial and part and parcel of other pseudoscientific beliefs. It’s just another Propaganda Reinforcement web site.
I have Cherry Picked two of his claims as examples. Actually I just selected them at random. I read his list of myths. Most of them are mythical only to him.
Example 1: According to FM, the Antarctic is losing ice through melting ice shelves. Hang on a minim: those “ice shelves” are the terminations of glaciers, the off-shore, in the ocean terminations. They form such a minute part of the Antarctic ice sheets, they are trivial losses. He calls Antarctica gaining mass a myth.
Example 2: According to FM, Polar Bears are not increasing—that’s another myth—but decreasing because of Arctic Ice loss limiting or destroying their hunting and breeding grounds and so on ad infinitum. He doesn’t recognize the expertise of Dr Susan Crockford, but relies on members of a clique (supported by Mickey Mann and Lewandowsky) who shot themselves in both feet with a recent attack on Dr. Crockford. Lewandowsky appears to be a favourite of his and features in his list of reading, several times. That was what made me think of Crooked Cookie.
Trying to debate him would be a waste of time. He’s a Save the World from the War on Science warrior. Pity he actually seems to not know enough real science. To him, the models are accurate. Oh dear. How sad, Too bad. Never mind. It’s best to make a note of him, keep a copy of his web site content appropriately dated so his exact words can be quoted, (espec. back to him), and wait for Nature to disprove him. It’s going to be very interesting over the next three years, the next five years and the next decade.
If you do want to debate/discuss with him, here are a couple of starters for you:
The first is a paper about the response of atmospheric gases, which includes CO2, to solar insolation can be found here . It involved a replicable physical experiment. The author is an expert in measurement sensors.
The other paper which describes the source of atmospheric warming is the one by Nikolov and Zeller describing how the surface temperature is driven by the interchange of potential and kinetic energy among gases in a gravity well.
So it needs only three things: an atmosphere, gravity and solar insolation.
Good luck.
[Everyone, This was found in moderation. I think its size is the only reason. Shorter is preferred over longer in general. Thanks.] AZ
I’ve made longer posts and not had to go “stand in the corner” before so I figured I had transgressed by the ad hom of “Cookie Boy” (If this goes into moderation too, I’ll be more sure :-). )
It also has four links and I suspected that could be a cause but Pat gets away with it … with only an occasional “stand in the corner” …
I always thought I trapped heat with my blankets in my bed.
I also thought my roof trapped heat within my house.
What do you mean by your claim that heat can’t be trapped?
Your body is a heat source. On a cold night when you lie in your bed without any blankets, a part of your body is in direct contact with cold air and the heat generated by your body can relatively easily be transported away from your body. When you put blankets over your body, you alter (warm) the temperature of the matter in direct contact with your body. I.e., some of the heat your body generates is transferred to and “temporarily” resides in the blankets. If the heat was “trapped” in the blankets, the heat would remain in the blankets forever. That being the case, every night when you went to bed the blankets would be just as warm as when you left them that morning. Such is not the case, every time you go to bed your blankets are as cool as the surrounding cold air and you body has to re-heat the blankets.
As yarpos noted above (see comment 1.3.1) whether or not it is proper to say your blankets “trap” heat devolves into a definition of the word “trap.” My take on that definition (see comment 1.3.2 above) is that the heat in the blankets is not “trapped.” From a physics perspective, when two bodies are in thermal contact, heat always moves from the higher temperature body to the lower temperature body no matter what insulating material (blankets, CO2, a vacuum, etc.) you place between the objects. Insulating material can alter the rate of heat transer, but it cannot stop the heat transfer. As such, no material can “trap” heat in the higher temperature body. The only way to stop the heat transfer is to bring the two objects to the same temperature.
Yes I often wonder why leftists become leftists….is it bad potty training, were they raised by leftists, have they a DNA-designed chip on their shoulder?
It would be interesting to find out….I find it hard to believe you can be a leftists at uni when its all trendy and you need an excuse to join a student club and drink beer, but you do grow up eventually and most people become conservative when they have a family.
“If you’re not a socialist before you are 25 there is something wrong with your heart.
If you are a socialist after you turn 25 then there is something wrong with your head”.
I think the problem is that the average recruit doesn’t have any curiosity about what they have signed up to. In my case I lasted 3 weeks because I decided to read up on the history of the subject, not the endless waffle about what X & Y were debating at the current time.
The strongest influence was a book about socialist settlements, and how they went. Australia figured prominently because there was a feeling in the 1880 & 1890s that a new land could be the place for a new beginning. Quite a number of towns along the Murray river started as socialist camps. I read of a group starting off up-stream from Morgan, who split within 18 months. The more committed ones moved up-stream with some new recruits to a new “ideal” spot, which broke up fairly quickly. The most dedicated believers moved up-stream again and rapidly fell apart also. At that point I decided that if the most dedicated out of a group of dedicated believers couldn’t make the thing work, then it wouldn’t work with ordinary humans.
See also Mary Gilmore — In 1893, Gilmore and 200 others followed Lane to Paraguay, where they formed the New Australia Colony. She started a family there, but the colony did not live up to expectations and they returned to Australia in 1902.
Being made more aware of the failure of “Democracy” to deliver the bare minimum of guidance, oversight and civil control has left me feeling a bit down.
The penchant for Miss Bish and Lord Fauntleroi to subjugate our country to the Governance and Control of unelected overlords in New York and Brussels leaves me cold.
The Chronic manipulation of taxes, surcharges, road tolls, CO2 taxes, “future contingency” contributions and a hundred and one other Mickey Mouse rules needed to build and maintain a functional, inclusive, non sexist, holistic, well educated, environmentally aware, self determining Society,
Has finally got me Down.
We don’t have a Democracy simply because we can’t see where all the Money is going any more.
We, the people, seem to have lost control of our society.
The people have never been in control of any country. It’s all smoke and mirrors. There was only ever one Democracy throughout all of history, and that is the early Roman form, where people from society were given the right of leadership for 12 months.
The modern Democracy is just a slavery system. Keep the populous calm and tax them as much as you can get away with.
In the bible, the 11 Jewish tribes had to give 10% of their earning to the church, and by extension the 12’th tribe. We in Australia get taxed at 40%. 30% comes out of our wages before we even get it, the other 10% comes out when we buy something.
That is an insane level of tax.
I don’t know much about the histories of governments around the world, but I don’t believe governments have ever been benign. I’ve got a DVD of the Seven Industrial Wonders of the Wold. I was so shocked at the utter corruption involved with the great western railway project. Even the London Bridge was rife with corruption. And the manager who built the Hoover Dam was an absolute bastard. So history demonstrates that corruption was perhaps worse in those times than today.
Insanity is when people vote for one of two major parties who believe in the same global warming nonsense and compete with or sorts of other polices to destroy our economy via various means.
Yes there have been benign “governments” in the past. China for example had a couple of good dynasties but they were soon overthrown by evil dictators. Greece, the origin of democracy had a good from of government until money and power hungry men decided to change things to their advantage. Same with Roman Empire. The US started with with good intended men after the war if independence but again it didn’t last long. It’s a very common trait of mankind. We build, we conquer then we destroy, then we re-build, etc. etc, The cycle keeps repeating over and over, and will continue to do so until one of two things happens. One, we as a species destroy ourselves or two something external comes along to break the cycle.
Oh it’s much more than 40%, add rates, rego, fuel excise, dog registration, car licences, licences to work (eg electrical /taxi licenses) luxury taxes, alcohol/tobacco taxes, land tax, metering charges, ambulance, fire levy, road tolls gambling taxes, transaction taxes, stamp duty, payroll tax, worksafe. Pensioners pay at least 80% of their pensions straight back to the government in a stupid money-go-round.
We do have a democracy, which is defined as a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. The problem is most don’t use it appropriately. After all we are free to vote for and elect the representatives we prefer. Ideally a better system is not a democracy but a republic headed by benevolent leader acting almost like a dictator but with certain checks, balances and restraints. Of course in reality that would never works since such a leader even if possible would eventually be replaced by a bad one and the whole things comes tumbling down. If you believe the public should have more control over what is legislated then that’s a recipe for chaos in the long run. The public is clearly made up of people with vastly different and often contradictory ideals and world-views. Trying to get a consensus on most things would be impossible. In some ways the best system of government is actually what we have now if only the voters used their brains to make the right choice when electing their representatives. The quality of government in our democracy is hugely dependent on the voters and no one else, and therein lies the real problem.
We need to make a break with the Westminster System and appropriate a different form of government.
‘Most western countries have representative systems. Switzerland is a rare example of a country with instruments of direct democracy (at the levels of the municipalities, cantons, and federal state). Citizens have more power than in a representative democracy.’ wiki
The Swiss seem to be one of the richest countries and also seem to be reasonably immune to global financial collapses. Perhaps they do have a good system of government.
Here in Australia we actually have what is called a “representative democracy”.
We elect representatives who then vote in our parliament supposedly as representatives of the voters who elected them.
Doesn’t work that way of course with the rise of the party system and allegiance to the party’s policys coming before allegiance to those who elected them.
A true Democracy allows every eligible , note the eligible, citizen in the society to vote at the governing assembly.
But the reality is that there ain’t no such animal of any consequence on planet Earth as a “True democracy”
Some close with the universal voting procedures in some small Swiss cantons.
The oldest still functioning represetative Democracy is the Iceelandic parliament , the Althingi which came into existence in 930AD .
It has had one break of some 45 years from 1800 to 1844 when it resumed as Iceland’s parliament.
Eligibility to vote for a representative to parliament on your behalf varies greatly over time and across nations with the obvious slaves a and criminals not eligible to vote and until the early 20th century women and those of a low non landholding status were not eligible to vote in most parliamentary elections around the world.
Women still aren’t allowed to vote in many less developed nations .
You say a true democracy is one where every eligible citizen has a vote at the governing assembly. Such a system is also part of the definition of a democracy, usually termed “government by the majority of the people”. However, even the Swiss system fails to meet that level of “people’s democracy” or “direct democracy”. That’s because it’s a “direct democracy” only some of the time. No nation on earth has a “direct democratic” style of government all the time. At other times Switzerland is a representative democracy. Most laws are made and decided by parliament and not by the people. One reason is because a nation that would follow a “direct democracy” style of government all the time would be chaotic and fail miserably due to increasing lack of interest by the public as they become more and more apathetic or tired of it leaving it to only a small proportion of the public to control what happens, who more likely than not be those who have themselves and not the nation’s interest in mind. The idiom “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink it” come to mind. It would also still have the problem of people being gullible and conned into believing something, such as CAGW, due to a propaganda campaign by either the government or special interest groups. There is no escape from it. No man-made system of government is perfect – not even close, for one reason alone – people. It’s really up to the people to turn their brains on, do their own research and use their critical thinking abilities to make the right decision. If most people did do all that from the start our current style of democracy would be adequate to allow us to pick the right representatives and we would not be in the mess we are in with respect to the renewables mess. In reality not many do that and so we end up where we are.
It has the potential to lead to a civil war and hence the loss of innocent lives. I sincerely hope it doesn’t for that reason alone. It might be better if Americans were as apathetic as us Australians, let the left take over, lead the US to an economic collapse and then teach people the hard way that left socialism is destructive in so many ways (again). Then again we all know how bad things can get under a socialist state. Stalin murdered millions of his own people, far more that what another infamous and evil dictator did in Germany. So perhaps a civil war would result in far less causalities. No one really knows. All we know for sure is if the left persist in perpetrating so much hatred it will end in some kind of disaster for all sides. That you can bet your house on, if you still have it by the time the left are in complete control.
I do think the US was facing, is still facing, a bigger threat than simply having a socialist government which, as you suggest is survivable. They faced a coup that even an armed populace could not prevent if the swamp got their hand puppet elected. If the stories of FEMA camps and FEMA having billions of rounds are true Charlton Heston may indeed have his gun pried from his cold dead hand. [OK he has gone already]
Survivable? Look what happened to the world economy when we just let our home mortgages get a little out of hand. Oz didn’t feel that one because you weren’t swimming in debt, but you’ve fixed that little problem in the intervening years. Let the US do a Venezuela and see if anything recognizable survives.
Survivable? Look what happened to the world economy when we just let our home mortgages get a little out of hand. Oz didn’t feel that one because you weren’t swimming in debt, but you’ve fixed that little problem in the intervening years. Let the US do a Venezuela and see if anything recognizable survives.
It is true that no socialism is good, including the other extreme kind – national socialism. It will be worrying to see the US moves towards that end while the Democrats move to the extreme left. Such a pendulum swing to the extreme right would be as fatal as the Democrats returning to power. We in Australia though won’t have to worry about that happening here. If anything we are more likely to end up being a province of China and break ties with the US if they went far right, especially since there is a much stronger hatred of national socialism here than there is of communism.
Pol Pot was not an agrarian socialist, which first emerged in England and went by the name of ‘Diggers”. Marx later appropriated the idea and in his name the dictatorship of the proletariat produced a cold war.
That was last century, everything has now changed.
‘…by launching the trade war, the United States could also be reacting to China’s model of developmental state, which many in the United States see as a threat to the liberal market system. While the Chinese economy is market-driven in numerous ways, many critical components of China’s legacy of planned economy have intentionally been maintained.
‘With this model of developmental state, the Chinese government bolsters lots of industries, including high-tech ones, with subsidies and other types of support. This is widely regarded as a distortion to the market that keeps foreign competitors at a permanent and unfair disadvantage. The trade war, therefore, can be interpreted as an attack on China’s development model.’
Keith you make several good points which could make one despondent about our democracy.
But we have to look at the good side of life. I find that sometimes a few days without the latest news can rejuvenate ones enthusiasm.
Reg a rds GeoffW
No big dramas, I guess it’s just that here at the later part of my life it would have been good to see something positive in the prospects for the future.
All you can do as an individual is do what you can and keep good company around you.
I’ve been going through my own private hell the last 6 months. I’m trying desperately to believe it’ll all turn out ok. You’re words are a timely reminder. Thanks KK.
Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle
Don’t grumble, give a whistle
And this’ll help things turn out for the best
And always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the light side of life
I think we’re in for a rough ride, however one benefit of having been through a bad patch is you have a tendency to see things really as they are. Forwarned is forearmed, IMHO….better to be realistic and not be surprised when the (artificial) puppies dogs and rainbows evaporate…
I had to make a trip over the Black Spur to the dentist to have a broken tooth repaired this afternoon. I don’t normally play the radio or CDs in the car but today I listened to Abba and I thought about you both and others having rough times. ‘I had a dream’ might cheer you up and it brought back past happy times; played it at least three times! It’s my favourite Abba track…I hope you like it too. I take heart when I meet good, decent people and try to let those balance out all the evil and misery that also exists.
There is just so much good music out there, and from every era, and no matter how old I get, there will always be something new I like, or even find from the past
Thanks Tony. Great track…didn’t know that one. I’m surprised at myself, enjoying the always well-liked by me tracks, but now finding some of them quite moving in a way I haven’t previously.
My sisters in the 80s played thier multiple ABBA records to death. One of the problems if being the only one in a musical family who wasnt into music is that after a while it gits on yer nervs…
Fumnily enough though, I have a good sense of musical rhythm and can tell if an engine is “off” by the sound/harmonics, and tel you if someone is singing flat…
I have a great appreciaton of the cleverness of Shakespeare, and once saw Omlette in London at the Drury Lane whereby they had no props at all on stage and it went for 2 hours, we loved it…
Thanks Annie, FijiDave and Original. I played the Abba song just because you said I should. It’s true, the more you play it, the more it means.
I was born in 66, so when Abba hit the scene I was in my early teens. The thing I do remember of Abba, was at one point, they had 9 of the top 10 songs on the radio.
The vocal synchronization was better than anything else out there, and their songs were so great they just dominated the music market.
I’m currently loving Devin Townsend. His music is just so superb these days. And catching up with one of my other old favorites; Gary Numan.
It’s good just to chat and know that someone out their understands. 🙂
I guess I’m the optimist around here when it comes to the future.
We along with the rest of the West are Democracies of one or more polically based constructs.
Democracy’s great advantage is its ability to adapt to change, to fight out policy conflicts without entering into armed and physical confrontations .
Democracies have a constant churn of those who lust for power or who just sorta fall into or out of power which creates constant chage and variation.
Democracies have an underlying bureacratic, legslative and legal base which all participants in a Democracy know that if those limitations to behavior by anybody or everybody within that Democracy will mean the failure of that democracy and the destruction of the abilities and rights of the citizens of that democracy to have a say and an input into the running of their nation and its Governing democratic structure.
Democracies appear in a constant state of crisis as the supporters of different ways and means of achieving goals and and objectives dispute and argue and conflict over the ways and means of achieving those objectives or alternative objectives that others believe are more important.
And because of that never ending conflict and interaction and the ever shifting political forces through partnerships and coalitions , all of them want as much backing from the voters as they can acquire so all parties in a genuine Democracy try to ensure that their supporters are not hobbled or shut down or bullied out of the political discussion.
And so we have supposedly a relative but not total “Freedom of Speech” in a genuine Democracy.
Because of the churn of ideas, policies, people, circumstances and etc, Democracies are for the most part, with some retro periods, always advancing in one way or another through economics, standards of living, technological advances and etc.
—————-
So to join the climate prediction sooth sayers but with a political bent I will make the following prediction re China.
As Xi has now set himself up as the current Emperor of China for the foreseeable future, I would suggest that within a decade the Chinese economy will begin to stagnate and possibly even begin to go backwards.
Without that constant churn of ideas and policies and abilities and turn over of political personnel and the ability to correct mistakes regardless of the imprtance of the persons whose baby such a policy may have been, and with the same old tired group of faces after decade of running China , and the same tired old inflexible policies emanating from the long time and fixed in time Chinese leadership, China will become stagnant economically and politically on an international scale and then a real threat to mankind.
Why a threat?
Looking at history; whenever an Emperor or single center of power begins to feel real pressure from his / her citizens who desire change and improvements in their lives and begins tomfeelsuch domesticly driven pressure is seriously felt by any dictator, their first response is to pick a serious argument with a neigbouring country or group as a way of taking pressure off themselves and uniting the country under their leadership in the pursuance of destroying a politically constructed and supposed threat to the nation .
Xi and his supplicants in his circle is already becoming aggressive and after a decade or so with little likely in the way of new policies , new economics, plus reinforcing the Chinese military machine as his major supporting system, there is that military machine there which can be used politically against a neighbouring country as an excuse and a reason to take the pressure and focus of the by then growing domestic disillusionment with his leadership and transfer it to hatred of the enemy which must then be destroyed.
Hence, a stagnating China and a military adventurism to take the domestic disillusuionment off of the failure of Xi’s imperial abitions to continue the growth economically and socially within the Chinese world and its system of governance beginning very roughly a decade into the future.
For a classical example of my claim and it is only one example out of hundreds down through history, try reading up on the Argentinian triumvirate of the three military leaders, their failures to advance the well being of the a Argentinian nation and the resulting desire by the military triumvirate to distract the Argentinians people from their domestic failures by invading the Falkland Islands and thereby picking a full scale fight with the British who won the battles and the war leading to the destruction of the military triumvirate both politically and in the end individually as they and their military supporters were eliminated from Argentinian public life forever.
all that off the top of your head? take long to research?
About 60 years of thinking and reading and watching as history was made and passed by and guessing and watching human psychology and the way we humans interact and conflict and the ways in which leadership acts in all sorts of situations.
Yeah, that post whether you agree or disagree was all off the top of my head over the last hour or so.
And if it makes you think, not always a guaranteed proposition of course , then I have achieved something.
Problem is, Gee Aye, is its a well trod path and a reasonably expected outcome, when one considers history. Govts the world over love distractions when life politically at home is bad.
‘A senior US congressman has called on Australia to conduct its own freedom-of-navigation operation against China.’ Oz
The Alliance leader wants us to get into a fight with our biggest trading partner, become a real deputy sheriff and double our arms purchase from their military industrial complex.
Indeed the lure of some isolated part of this continent,away from the useless “information” flogged at me and those cretins that represent us. Soon to be a failed state.
Cropmarks have been used for a while by archaeologists. It’s not just drought, also boggy conditions, frosts and certain crops or times of season have favoured detection not just of Roman roads but of some seriously prehistoric stuff. Frost marks were first investigated for archaeology in Britain in the 1700s, so not a new thing. Drought in N Italy a few years back enabled detection of a Roman city near Venice. Now we have drones!
Of course, there are moves afoot in Australia to do the same thing. The anti-straw lobby (yes there is such a thing) even has a web site where they state things such as “Plastic straws are an unnecessary convenience with a big impact.”. These ridiculous claims are reminiscent of the anti-cheap-electricity lobby. Because, you know, cheap electricity is an “unnecessary convience”.
QUOTE
///Santa Barbara, CA – Illustrating the growing American police state, the city of Santa Barbara has passed a law that prohibits bars, restaurants, and other food service businesses from distributing plastic straws to their patrons under penalty of jail time and hefty fines.
The Santa Barbara City Council on Tuesday unanimously passed what is likely the most punitive ban on plastic straws in the country—but restaurants will still be able to legally give out straws to customers that request them.///
I guess they could go back to the old waxed paper ones….
The green lobby – removing our joys and simple pleasures bit by bit, freedom by freedom…
On a more positive note, if the Leftists try an actual coup against Trump as it would appear they are basically trying to get going right now, I suspect the Americans will put down such an uprising very quickly, mostly via the armed citizenry.
I abhor violence, I think the Leftists, once soundly defeated, will go back under their rocks and stay there. People have let the Left become too belligerent and havent checked them hard enough early enough. Now we have a well organized army of moral-free adult delinquents hell bent on causing harm.
Starbucks jumped onto the “Ban Plastic Straws” bandwagon by announcing that it is replacing the straw/lib combination with a lid that can be used to sip your drink without a straw. The only problem is that the new lid uses more plastic than the old lid/straw combination did.
Straws are obviously a great menace to society. What little kid didn’t tear off one end of the wrapper and then blow it like an unguided missile at the kid (or parent) across from him. There must have been at least one whole eye put out that way over all the years we allowed straws to be distributed to patrons in restaurants.
Then think of the danger of all those sugar packets. When you shake one to pack down the contents away from the end you’re going to tear open you might break a finger or cause yourself some other injury. And it’s the government’s responsibility to protect you from yourself.
I say, more laws, not less. Make it illegal to even go to a restaurant because you might have a wreck on the way there, or worse, on the way home and be cited for drunk driving as well as have your nose busted by the air bag.
Good for Santa Barbara. I always knew they’d finally get it right and think with all their money instead of their brains. 🙁
Saving the world from itself one city at a time…only in Califusion-ia.
I think that if such great lawmaking ever happens here or statewide I’ll just take my own straw to the restaurant with me and dare them to do anything about it. If everyone could get together and do that just one day it would send a message the elites couldn’t ignore.
I never thought the humble drinking straw could be so much fun. And I never in this world wold have thought it to be so controversial. Is there not at least one of these Santa Barbara lawmakers who has enjoyed a root beer float? I’ve never been served one that I would try to drink without a straw. That would be getting ice cream all over my face if not also down my shirt and right into my lap? They come with a straw and a long handled spoon for a reason.
But I’ll outfox them. We make rootbeer floats here at home and we can still buy straws at the store. So every time I sit back and relax with my root beer float and my straw I’ll be laughing at the City of Santa Barbara. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 Ha ha ha and ha!
And do they not have at least one problem to work on that’s higher priority than straws? Perhaps the nearby hills that are still tinder dry and could come down on them in a wall of flame if there’s another Santa Ana Wind condition.
This boils down to more “me too” ism, virtue signaling at its worst. Sacramento has had such a bill presented in the legislature so Santa Barbara city council members must beat Sacramento to the punch. Not only that, they must have an even stronger prohibition. 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 I would make it longer but you get the idea. I’m heaping my contempt on such people.
.
With the amount of derision around over the banning of the humble drinking straw, it could become “the straw that broke the [ politiical ] camel’s back”!
————-
We have artists
We have engineers.
We have accountants.
We have lawyers.
We have doctors
And we have another few hundred ways of making a living.
But one thing is sure.
An engineer may not be a very good artist or lawyer or doctor or any good at any number of other ways of making a living.
Ditto for all those other ways of making a living and the practioners of those ways usual inability to operate in an efficient and constructive manner in most of those alternative means of making a living.
.
And then we have politicians who often try to give the impression they are the equivalent of “Masters of the Universe” in their supposed ability to master every possible aspect of politics and every other aspect of a complex society.
Whereas in actual real time living, those same erstwhile politicians barely know how to turn on a tap on to get water and which way to turn it off to stop the water flowing.
But they might be very good indeed at manipulating people and selling a message and know precisely where to sink the knife in the back to get the maximum of the desired results.
But when the reality and the real world outside of politics strikes they are at a complete loss.
But being politiciansthey will use all of their political skills to minimise their lack of ability to function in the real world outside of politics.
And we the public, will never be much wiser about their complete lack of any practicality or understanding of the forces and pressures that exist in the wide world outside of politics.
So when the politicking is over and the voters have had their say and the decisions have to be made on the running of the country and the fullfilling of their voters. desires , they fail the test because they simply are not mentally and psychologically equipped to operate in a real world situation and not in a vaporous world of ever shifting politics to which they are adapted and which they swim and swansong quite happily in.
They fail often rather miserably and sometimes spectacularly when it comes making decisions that demands and requires firm outcomes to keep society or the relevant part of society functioning adequately.
Maybe we need a law that requires all pursuant politicians to have at least five years working , not in union offices or anywhere else political , but in private business so that they at least have some understanding of what the real world outside of the artificial hall of mirrors and distorted illusions that is politics before they are ever allowed to stand for election to a parliament.
The sad part is, the straw is so trivial. Why are they so upset about something so trivial?
I would have thought packaging would be a far easier target. When I buy something all I get is a massive load of box, plastic and Styrofoam. And inside all that is this little device that I wanted. It’s like the smaller the object, the bigger the packaging.
Change but a few words and you have just written the homily for the humble CO2 molecule when it’s finally put in the ground never to be seen again.
With the amount of derision around over the banning of the humble CO2 molecule, it could become “the molecule that broke the [ politiical ] camel’s back”!
I still hope for that camel to stumble and fall, fall hard.
Why are some people and sections of the media so determined to blame Tony Abbott for signing and ratifying the Paris Agreement?
My research revealed that it was signed in New York at UN HQ in April 2016 and ratified there in November 2016. Tony Abbott ceased being PM during September 2015. The Paris Conference was held from late November into December 2015.
Here is an extract from a recent address (Bob Carter Memorial) Tony Abbott MP gave;
“”Now one of the most important laws of politics is: beware the unintended consequences of what seems-like-a-good-idea-at-the-time.
I’m not sure that the Howard government fully anticipated where the renewable energy target would lead when it first made the decision to impose one.
I certainly didn’t anticipate, as prime minister, how the aspirational targets we agreed to at Paris (Note: Turnbull Government) would, in different hands, become binding commitments.
I didn’t anticipate how agreeing to emissions that were 26 per cent lower in 2030 than in 2005 would subsequently become a linear progression of roughly equal cuts every year over the next decade.
But now that we are more alive to all the consequences of combining energy policy with emissions policy – and now that we do understand that this will define our economy for decades to come – there is no excuse for getting it wrong again.”.
And the actual agreement happened at the COP21 meeting on 12 Dec, 2015, 3 months after Abbott was relieved of his PMship.
‘At COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC reached a landmark agreement to combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a sustainable low carbon future. The Paris Agreement builds upon the Convention and ……’.
When you consider that the RET target was dramatically increased by Rudd in 2009, it appears he has escaped any criticism of the current mess that has supercharged electricity prices.
There appears to be some inconsistency in poling. This week we are told 48% of Australians believe we should pull out of Paris CO2 targets but last year we were told 64% would like more investment in “renewables”. The number has changed quite dramatically. Is that a function of the poling questions and method or has the opinion changed so much in just a year?
I read recently that Labor established a 28 per cent RET that really kick started the “transition” but later when the Abbott Government was in office September 2013 to September 2015 they were able to obtain Senate support for RET to be lowered to 23 per cent where it remains today.
The plan had been to abolish the RET and subsidies.
“…..the Rudd government in 2010 extended the phasing out of the renewable subsidies for existing operators from 2020 to 2030……….The 10-year extension beyond the contracted 2020 phase-out under the Howard government is estimated to cost households and businesses up to an extra $7.5bn…”
Meet the Teenagers Leading a Climate Change Movement
New York Times-8 hours ago
The teenagers kicked off their campaign with a protest on Saturday at the National … across the globe, they say time is running out to address climate change.
Do we know the real reasons why those teenagers, maybe as many as half of them that were there, attended the march.
A commentor on WUWT some months ago said he and no doubt others always attended those “mass” student gatherings regardless of the cause they were promoting as he always had a very good chance of getting to know a few more of the females of the species with the potential and appropriate side benefits arising therefrom.
Its a damn long time ago that I was a teenager but I can still appreciate and approve his logic!
Greenhouse gases are warming the world—but chilling Antarctica …
Unmasking the negative greenhouse effect over the Antarctic Plateau
A paradoxical negative greenhouse effect has been found over the Antarctic Plateau, indicating that greenhouse gases enhance energy loss to space.
Using 13 years of NASA satellite observations, we verify the existence of the negative greenhouse effect and find that the magnitude and sign of the effect varies seasonally and spectrally.
Sure they are. Why do you think the cause was changed from global warming to climate change? The warmists have it nicely sewed up both ways and you can’t make any criticism if it’s too hot or if ti’s too cold.
When you have a group of willfully ignorant people addicted to a trendy cause, I suspect they will fight very hard to maintain thier status quo, hence the apparent zombie-like nature of this thing..
The answer is simple – the Earth is cooling as shown by Antarctica, but where Greenhouse believers are trapped in numbers, the rising hot air is keeping temperatures up slightly.
There – I expect to get double red thumbs for that. Come on you Trolls.
That paper is a mess of myths. When there is an inversion layer the air is heating the surface as well as releasing heat to space. The paper talks about the surface cooling slower because of the inversion layer – no it is actually being heated by the air coming in from the oceans. This has be known for a long time.
They’re desperate to explain why Antarctica persists with no AGW, and going its own way despite paper after paper attempting to warn us about its incipient melting, and temps belowm -50° C.
But AEMO’s core scenario, based on current federal and state policies, is that a 46 per cent share of renewables will be the bare minimum by 2030, and more than 60 per cent is likely should a higher emissions reduction target – say, a 45 per cent cut by 2030 – was introduced.
In RenewEconomy’s Energy Insiders Podcast this week, we asked AEMO chief executive Audrey Zibelman if the grid would still be secure and stable at these level of renewables. “Absolutely,” she said.
The comments on this blog seem to ignore night time and wet, cloudy, windless days. They are convinced that RE can power the country with storage which does not exist.
“Absolutely, what, stable or unstable” she said [editorial comment, mine, RH]
The more of those generators that have to be shut down as solar and wind take over, taking offline the inertia of those big heavy rotating parts, the more likely it is that she’ll be eating those words. The trouble is, the rest of you have to eat them too in the form of major outages over something your current coal fired system could survive easily.
But the renewables economy is demanding profits. Someone must feed the beast.
“They are convinced that RE can power the country with storage which does not exist.”
And at power levels which cannot be reasonably sustained!
The current minimum power demand for the NEM, is 18000 MWh, with a total of between 550 and 600 GWh for the day.
Solar farms currently supply just 0.5% of that, and wind, being highly variable, averages out at maybe 6-7%? Roof solar is meeting, maybe 5%. But of course, that’s only for a few choice hours in the middle of the day!
I dunno what planet these people are living on, but I cannot see any reasonable mechanism, or plan, that will bring RE up to anywhere near those levels!
Methinks all that chest beating about how much RE is providing, is mere puffery!
Of course, if they keep on their desired path, they may get to 46%, but it will be 46% of power that will not provided in a manner that will meet our power expectations! And they wont tell you that!
In the meantime, coal will just keep on keeping on, providing power, as, and when we need it!
Headlines; ‘Heatwave scorches Europe London to Siberia’.
So tell me guys is this a climate-change event or a something natural, or something both ?
Regards GeoffW
Ahhh !……. Summer of ’76 in the UK..
…I was young !!
I had just graduated …..(remember Alice Coopers ” School’s Out” Feeling ?)
I had a well paid job,
Lived on my own yacht..
Beer was cheep. (15p a pint)
Girls were young, liberated …..and easily impressed !
Hot summers always bring back happy memories !
I lived in Rockhampton for a couple years. I copped a six week heatwave where the cool of the morning at 5am was 36C. The days were 47C in the shade. And I was out in a quarry doing quantity surveying. My God, the heat reflection in a quarry is something to behold.
I was heading into Rocky (I lived in Gracemere) one day down the Capricorn Highway, when I passed a Main Roads crew doing a re-seal on the highway. The hotmix gets laid at 60C, and the outside temperature was a good 46C. I thought, you poor bastards. I felt sorry for that crew I can tell you.
I had the unpleasant experience of living in Europe in 2003. It happens but the real issue is how poorly they are set up to handle it. Days of 35 plus in oz arent that big a deal, in Europe it can be a misery.
In 2003, having returned to the UK for a few years, I was appalled at the summer of that year. Our kitchen was stinking hot, having large windows facing east and south and a large paved patio. Despite the double-glazing (ha ha! fat lot of use!) the heat-gain there was atrocious, even before doing any cooking. We had a small ac we’d brought with us from Aus (thank goodness!) and my OH eventually fitted it into a window. I had been complaining of the heat and saying I didn’t leave Aus just to find the same ghastly heat back home! He said ‘Stop moaning!’I was still fixing up sheets over the windows in a desperate attempt to cool things 🙁
Somehow, temperatures in the 30s in England feel much worse than here in Aus.
It didn’t do that too well in that rectory Peter C. The window frames were metal and not well-fitting and the house walls not insulated and the roof not well insulated. We tried to improve things. The price of oil for the CH increased massively while we were there (no gas) and wood wasn’t cheap for the little open fire. We put in a little Villager stove (with the flat-top option for cooking in case the electricity went off) which was multi-fuel. Eventually we turned to wonderful black coal….far more efficient than wood…Welsh anthracite.
Red thumbers…more for you 🙂
1. These four years apparently experienced drought, with 1540 & 1541 particularly dry – in both these latter years, the Thames was so low that sea water extended above London Bridge, even at ebb tide in 1541. Three successive fine / warm summers from 1538-1540: the weather in 1540 was so fine that picking of cherries commenced before the end of May and grapes were ripe in July.
2. General warmth over Europe during the spring & summer of 1540. For England, there are several references to a hot summer, with great heat & drought; also many deaths due to the ‘Ague’. In this year (1540), there was so little water flowing in the Seine through Paris that people were able to walk across. (The next warm summer of equal worth is possibly that of 2003!)
(also noted in usw via Holland .. ” 1540 is described in contemporary chronicles as the ‘Big Sun Year’; the lower part of the Rhine from Cologne into the Netherlands is ‘dry’ – it didn’t rain over Italy, with Rome dry for something like 9 months. Forest/city fires, with many people dying of heat stroke, heart failure etc.”)
3. 1541: as indicated above, another drought year with rivers drying up (must have been quite extreme given that the previous year was notably dry). Cattle / other livestock dying for lack of water: dysentery killed thousands. – CET
Also the years
1541
1727
1866
1947
1976
1987
2003
2015
2017
” Also 1727 when people walked across the Rhine. James Halliday “The oldest riesling I have tasted (in the 1970s) was a 1727 Rüdesheimer Apostelwein from the Bremer Ratskeller, Len Evans bought it for the Single Bottle Club Dinner,
It was very expensive, and I wish I could say it was good, but the truth is that it tasted like an old manzanilla sherry.”
I cannot say what you would taste like after 250 years in a cask.
Major pollution alert! The “Steve Irwin” will be cruising up the east coast of Australia in order to “Stop Adani”. It was met at its port of arrival, here in Oz, by luminaries such as Bob Brown and Geoffrey Cousins as well other sundry mouthpieces for the Sea Shepherds (technicolour yawn here). All breathlessly reported by SBS on their nightly news bulletin last night. I travelled through the Soviet Union in 1968 and this felt like deja vu all over again.
So does that mean Obama will be charged with colluding with he Russians to win the elections? They can’t have it one way with Trump and not the same with Obama.
I doubt it, it seems only Trump supporters seem to get held to the actual law, and anyone who tries to testify in court against Hellary seem to exhibit consistent terminal serial clumsiness….
Surely there must be a legal angle that can be used to stop new developments of unreliables being rated by their nameplate capacity and their supposed ability to service x 1000 homes? Any other industry that made such massively overrated claims would be prosecuted for false advertising. The same goes for the outrageous claim that the unreliables are cheaper than coal.
I think there is a greater chance of proving a wrong is being perpetrated by both major parties on criminal grounds than under a civil one. The simple fact of the matter is their energy polices are in direct violation of the national and security interests by encouraging power companies to neglect coal as the best and most economic means to produce power and instead instigate a less reliable and more expensive means for the consumer that not only destabilises the economy but also makes Australia less competitive on the global scene.
It is doubtful that a scheme that forces us to pay third parties “taxes” for the right to produce a commodity is constitutional. The government can’t confer taxing power on private entities. The ret is such a forced payment. It should be tested in court. Queensland water payments are the same, they break the law.
That is true but fighting the government in a court of law requires big bucks and big minds. It can be argued that in the US the federal tax “law” is anti-constitutional yet not many have the inclination to fight the IRS. It would be much simpler in our situation to wake up the people and expose the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain. Although some awakening is apparently happening (debatable) it’s too slow and too little to put a stop to renewables development any time soon, which is nothing more than a scare campaign of the CAGW scam artists lead by the likes of Turnbull and Shorten. If Shorten becomes PM it will only get worse. If he does become PM I wonder then if we have actually made any progress on the fight against the scam, and instead we’ve gone backwards.
Britain’s Wind Drought Exposes Big Green’s Epic Stupidity – http://bit.ly/2NzDjjh
Climate change means less wind ??
July’s wind output was down by 40 percent so far compared with the same period last year.
He said: “We’ve been typically doing between two to three gigawatts of wind [generation].
“At a windier time of the year we might be doing nine or 10.”
Further evidence of pigs at the trough when it comes to unreliable energy $500,000 wind farm experts provided no advice in two years – http://bit.ly/2NvUeDx
A $500,000 scientific committee created by the Coalition government to monitor the health effects of wind turbines held one face-to-face meeting in two years, failed to provide any official advice and had its work repeatedly rejected by research journals.
The fundamental flaw is already acknowledged —
Even the wannabe world rulers of the UN, are muddled in their thinking. The UN-IPCC says it’s not predictable…
The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.
However they still assert that –
This predictive capability is both a valuable test of model performance and a useful contribution in natural resource and economic management.
In other words they wish to build on to an acknowledged unpredictable system a method by which they want control the world’s natural resources, and control all nations economic management.
That bloke over at the Renew whatever site wrote this article three days ago. Yeah, I know, well, we all know here where his allegiances lie, but the general public would read this and take it for the truth, because why would he say it, eh?. Here’s the link to the article.
So, anyway I read the article, and then, because I know how, I chased up some background, and I’ll show you with three images.
The first statement is this:
But the event on December 1 had nothing to do with renewables.
Okay then, at that time, the State of South Australia was consuming around 1500MW of power. Both Interconnectors to Victoria were on line and drawing their maximum most probably.
Here’s the link to the first image and this shows the total wind power on line in SA at that time, 150MW at Midnight falling to 50MW and then all but zero.
So at the time in question wind power was delivering around 5% of the State’s power requirement from a Nameplate of 1800MW at an operational Capacity Factor of 4% and falling. But this had nothing to do with renewable power though.
If the wind power was even delivering at its average of 30% CF, then there would have been no problem at all, but, umm, this had nothing to do with renewable power, eh!
The main thrust of the article was how a gas fired plant Dry Creek, let the State down and was fined $60,000, and, as the article goes on to say:
…..prices soared to the market cap before falling again as generators, including Dry Creek, sought to maximise their revenues.
This next image (at this link) is for all the gas fired power in that State, delivering more than 1000MW of the total, way up, because there was no wind power.
The article also says: (and here, Engie are the operators of the Dry Creek Gas fired plant in question)
The AER report details how Engie was repeatedly directed to operate in a certain manner to ensure the stability of the system, and constantly failed to respond.
Between the hours of 12.40am – soon after the network fault – and 5am, Engie’s output constantly differed from what had been instructed by AEMO, sometimes significantly above what AEMO wanted and needed for system security, and sometimes significantly below.
This next image (at this link) shows the output from Dry Creek, which has three 52MW Units, and two of them were in operation for the duration of the problem, delivering 100MW + of its possible 156MW.
So, wind power fails, then there’s a problem, and the end result is that filthy fossil fuel plant gets the blame.
I wonder why things are not always as they get reported, eh!
SA has had a day of free electricity, with wind generating 1300 MW, seemingly capped at 70% capacity factor, versus SA demand of 1030 MW overnight and 825 MW around midday. So from 11am-3.30 pm prices have averaged negative $100/MWhr, but now to meet evening peak demand of 1500 MW, prices are back to around $100/Mwhr. Is this any way to run a railroad, let alone an electricity network?
Here in a southern suburb of Adelaide I just experienced the first blackout of any length since Hazelwood closed in March last year. It was for exactly an hour. Wonder if it was our turn?
Robber says ” seemingly capped at 70% capacity factor, ”
Maybe Tony from OZ can comment on that.
“Practical utility-scale wind turbines achieve at peak 75% to 80% of the Betz limit.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betz%27s_law
Nothing to do with Betz limit. The cap is for stability reasons so there is enough inertia in the system. It was set at 1200MW initially following the grid collapse a couple of years ago but has been eased a little since the Samsung/Tesla battery was installed.
The Betz limit is the proportion of mechanical energy that an air turbine can extract from a given air stream, being the ratio 16/27.
with Obama shilling for “renewables” in SA this week, here’s a telling tale, which might explain FakeNewsMSM, especially BBC, doing all they could to get rid of corrupt Zuma, so he could be replaced with corrupt Ramaphosa, about whom BBC has nothing negative to say!
9 March: IOL South Africa: 27 new renewable energy projects for Eskom – Jeff Radebe
by Staff reporter
CAPE TOWN – New Energy Minister Jeff Radebe announced that more renewable energy will enter into the national grid.
He made the announced at Parliament on Thursday that agreements with 27 renewable energy projects will be signed with Eskom on Tuesday.
They will contribute 2,305 megawatts of electricity.
Radebe says the R56 ($UA4.171bn) billion investment in the economy will create more than 60,000 jobs, 95% of which will be for South Africans… https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/energy/27-new-renewable-energy-projects-for-eskom-jeff-radebe-13673386
13 March: Reuters: South African pro-Zuma group blocks energy deals in blow to Ramaphosa
by Joe Brock; Additional reporting by Alexander Winning and Tiisetso Motsoeneng
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was dealt a political blow on Tuesday, after a last-minute legal challenge by a group loyal to ousted leader Jacob Zuma blocked the signing of $4.7 billion in renewable energy deals.
The North Gauteng High Court agreed to hold a full hearing on the challenge on March 27 after the National Union of Metalworkers (NUMSA) and Transform RSA, a group which has lobbied for Zuma in the past, on Monday argued the deals would lead to coal-sector job losses and should be scrapped.
State power utility Eskom was due to sign 27 mostly wind power and solar deals with independent power producers (IPPs), in the first major investment deal since Ramaphosa replaced Zuma last month…
The projects were delayed for two years under Zuma as he pursued a much-criticized $100 billion (USUALLY QUOTED AS $76BN) nuclear power plan…
“Transform RSA is a non-profit, grassroots lobby organization,” the group’s president Adil Nchabeleng told Reuters.
“We are opposed to the prohibitive cost of the IPP contracts.”
Some investors remained positive.
“I’m still fairly optimistic these deals will be signed. When you look at the cold, hard facts about our economy, these are the sort of deals that need to be done,” Wills said.
CORRUPTION PROBE
NUMSA and Transform RSA argue that a switch to renewable energy would increase electricity costs for poor South Africans.
Energy analyst Chris Yelland, however, said the cost of renewable energy had fallen significantly and it was now cheaper than new coal and nuclear projects…
South Africa relies on coal-fired plants for more than 80 percent of its electricity generation, while renewables contribute around 7 percent. Eskom is one of the world’s largest producers of greenhouse gases…
“Ultimately this application is futile and economic sense will prevail. South Africa must transform from a dirty energy economy to a cleaner energy economy,” Yelland said.
South Africa’s renewable power program was the fastest-growing in the world seven years ago, attracting $15 billion of investment into wind farms and solar projects involving a cluster of new IPPs backed by foreign investment.
Over the past two years Eskom stopped signing renewable energy contracts and focused instead on a plan to build a fleet of nuclear power plants, in a deal that some members of the ANC and rights groups said would be open to corruption…
25 Apr: Quartz: How two South African women stopped Zuma and Putin’s $76 billion Russian nuclear deal
By Lynsey Chutel
It made no sense that a country like South Africa, with year-round sunshine, would abandon its renewable energy options to focus on nuclear power instead.
But a nuclear energy deal between South Africa and Russia has been at the center of much of South Africa’s political uncertainty as well as corruption allegations under former president Jacob Zuma, who resigned in February. The deal, which would have cost South Africa $76 billion to build a Russian-run nuclear energy plant, would have gone ahead if it weren’t for two women. For their work, Makoma Lekalakala, 52, and Liz McDaid, 55, were among those honored with the Goldman Environmental Prize in San Francisco on Apr. 23…
In 2014, Lekalakala received a tip from environmental activists in Russia that the South African government had signed a secret deal with the Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom to build a massive new power plant. As the head of a volunteer-driven organization called Earth Life, Lekalakala began to stage small protests around Johannesburg and outside the office of the national power supplier Eskom, but needed to create more awareness about the deal.
She contacted Liz McDaid, an old friend and a veteran anti-nuclear activist in Cape Town…
The deal would have also allegedly enriched Zuma’s son Duduzane Zuma, and his allies the Gupta family, who had already acquired a uranium mine allegedly in preparation for the nuclear project. In the meantime, Vladimir Putin’s political image began to loom larger over daily politics in South Africa… https://qz.com/1260877/how-two-south-african-women-stopped-zuma-and-putins-76-billion-nuclear-deal/
14 Jul: TheCitizenSouthAfrica: Charles Cilliers: Ramaphosa and Patrice Motsepe ‘keep it in the family’ in the Middle East
The president’s billionaire brother-in-law seems well placed to benefit from his proximity to power, in both senses of the word.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has drawn both praise and criticism following the announcement of a more than R130 billion investment into the energy sector in South Africa from Saudi Arabia, the world’s wealthiest oil-producing country.
Among the questions now being asked are why Ramaphosa’s brother-in-law, Patrice Motsepe, and Motsepe’s business delegation were spotted in photographs as part of the president’s entourage.
Ramaphosa is married to Motsepe’s sister Dr Tshepo Motsepe.
The photo above generated some heated debate in ANC circles and beyond on Friday, particularly around the potential conflict of interest.
Motsepe is already one of Africa’s richest men, with a net worth calculated by Forbes as close to $2 billion (R25 billion).
It’s not clear why he was accompanying Ramaphosa to the Middle East. He was also known for accompanying former South African presidents on business trips.
Brian Dames was by Motsepe’s side. Dames is a former Eskom CEO and now the CEO of Motsepe’s energy company African Rainbow Energy & Power.
The energy company is run separately to Motsepe’s listed mining company, African Rainbow Minerals, and is focused on the independent power producers (IPP) programme in South Africa…
Ramaphosa was not the only high-powered family member in government for Motsepe on the trip, as the minister of energy, Jeff Radebe, is both Motsepe and Ramaphosa’s brother-in-law too.
The minister is married to Motsepe’s sister Bridgette Radebe.
Ramaphosa shifted Radebe to the energy portfolio in February as one of his first executive decisions after taking over from Jacob Zuma.
During the latter months of his presidency, Zuma was criticised by the anti-nuclear lobby for having reshuffled loyalist David Mahlobo from state security to energy in October 2017. Critics perceived the move as an effort to finalise a controversial R1 trillion nuclear deal with South Africa’s Brics partner Russia.
Ramaphosa’s administration has, however, made it clear the nuclear build programme has been placed on hold indefinitely…
***It was reported in May that Deputy President David Mabuza was sent to Russia to break the “bad news” to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that South Africa would not be going ahead with the nuclear deal involving Rosatom, due to affordability concerns.
Ramaphosa has, by contrast, backed renewable energy strongly – particularly under the IPP programme, which Motsepe now has a stake in.
Radebe was quick to sign renewable energy contracts in April worth about R55 billion with IPPs in what was seen as the first major investment deal under Ramaphosa. The deals had formerly suffered a two-year delay under Zuma. They were for power purchase agreements for 27 mostly solar and wind projects…
Motsepe’s energy company appears to be well placed to benefit from the trip to the Middle East. Although known mainly for its oil and gas industries, Saudi Arabia has a well-funded energy company focused on solar and wind power generation, ACWA, which has a presence in at least 10 countries.
Speaking on the success of the trip, Radebe was quoted as saying that “already we have signed a big deal on the renewable side of R12 billion with Redstone and ACWA in partnership with the Central Energy Fund for renewable in terms of solar and wind”…
The inclusion of Motsepe and his delegation on the trip fuelled criticism among Ramaphosa’s detractors in both the ANC and outside it. They view these business links with suspicion.
The inclusion of Motsepe is also seen to be a possible conflict of interest since Motsepe is not the only big player in the renewable energy sector, and may be unfairly favoured through his sudden renewed proximity to power (in both senses of the word)… https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1979219/ramaphosa-and-patrice-motsepe-keep-it-in-the-family-in-the-middle-east/
20 Jul: TheCitizenSouthAfrica: Move over Zupta, Ramatsepe is here
by Citizen Reporter
The nickname ‘Ramatsepe’ is growing in popularity, with South Africans beginning to question the close ties between the president and his billionaire brother-in-law…
A growing number of people have picked up on this, with the nickname ‘Ramatsepe’ growing in popularity on social media as an equivalent to Jacob Zuma being dubbed ‘Zupta’ due to his close relationship with the Gupta family…
Ramaphosa shifted Radebe to the energy portfolio in February as one of his first executive decisions after taking over from Jacob Zuma.
Radebe was quick to sign renewable energy contracts in April worth about R55 billion with IPPs in what was seen as the first major investment deal under Ramaphosa…
Speaking on the success of the trip, Radebe was quoted as saying that “already we have signed a big deal on the renewable side of R12 billion with Redstone and ACWA in partnership with the Central Energy Fund for renewable in terms of solar and wind”.
Motsepe’s energy company, African Rainbow Energy & Power, also appeared to be well placed to benefit from the recent trip to the Middle East…
Some on social media consider the renewable energy projects taking place as evidence of possible corruption, with one user tweeting that they show “The Motsepe family looting this country”. https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1983980/move-over-zupta-ramatsepe-is-here/
a discussion on the topic in March, pre later developments posted in comments, which includes involvement of France, China etc in other African countries’ energy sectors:
15 March: AvcomSouthAfrica: Fake or not?
Cyril Ramaphosa is in favour of renewable power projects worth R56 billion. His company, Shanduka is to start wind power projects. Patrice Motsephe’s African Rainbow Energy and Power is to invest R300 million in wind and solar projects. Minister Jeff Radebe signed off 27 Renewable Energy Projects (but was stopped by court).
Shanduka is run by Cyril’s brother, Douglas.
Patrice Motsepe’s one sister is married to Cyril.
Jeff Radebe is also married to a sister of Patrice.
True, false?…
Is this why they rejected nuclear power? Smells like State Capture all over again! http://www.avcom.co.za/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=203478
Hours after lamenting conspicuous consumption and calling for more inclusive capitalism, this was the menu at the gala dinner for Barack Obama after the #MandelaLecture
(LINKS TO)
18 Jul: TimesLiveSouthAfrica: R50k for dinner with Barack Obama
by Leonie Wagner
Dinner with former US president Barack Obama doesn’t come cheap. Just ask the people who attended a gala dinner after his Mandela lecture on Tuesday… because they forked out R50 000 (US$3,700) for the privilege…
The gala dinner was themed “night of a hundred words” and held in Nasrec‚ Johannesburg. Joining Obama as the headline VVIP guests were President Cyril Ramaphosa‚ Mandela’s widow Graca Machel‚ former president Kgalema Motlanthe‚ and human rights lawyer and friend of Mandela‚ George Bizos.
Guests‚ including Maria Ramos‚ Trevor Manuel‚ Herman Mashaba‚ Zweli Mkhize and Mthetho Nyathi dined on beef stew‚ kingklip and oysters‚ while quaffing pricey whiskey…
It was no ordinary dinner‚ considering that a ‘cheap seat’ set guests back between R15 000 and R30 000…
The packages for the gala‚ contained in the invitation‚ shows VVIP seating for 10 people cost R500 000 per table and a table for 16 people cost R800 000.
Tier 1 seating cost R400 000 per table and a regular tier 4 seat cost between R15‚000 and R30 000.
But what does R15 000 or R30 000 get you?…
The menu said the starter would be “Foraged Qunu – a tribute to a herd boy” but the starters were not served, apparently because the event was running late. This dish was described on the menu as “local ashed goats cheese‚ textures of beetroot‚ charred corn and toasted hazelnuts delicately adorned with a mesclun of baby herbs‚ served with a bursting blood orange vinaigrette”.
The main course offered three options‚ each served with isiphingo honey roast butternut and morogo. Guests could choose between Moretsele-style beef stew served with soft maize‚ grilled malay kingklip served on a scallion mash potato with a decadent coconut and tumeric latte cream and a vegetarian pescatarian vegan option of king oyster mushrooms on spicy edamame mash with grilled asparagus and lightly pickled radish. https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-07-18-r50000-for-dinner-with-barack-obama/
An absurd article being pushed around is how Climate Change/Rising Sea levels are going to ‘mess with the internet’. Shameful climate clickbait.
Not the slightest bit concerned about the 180 million in Bandladesh half living less than 1 metre above sea level, the self indulged millenials in the West are more worried about their internet service? Don’t they realise the poor of Banglaseh stand to lose more? Have they no idea how dependent very poor people are on social networking? Have they no shame?
Who dreams this stuff up? After 30 years of rapidly rising sea levels, disappearing countries and drowning millions, these people have no idea. I was worried on the beach yesterday. I somehow sensed a change of a few mm in an average in my lifetime. I cannot say which way.
It would be fair to say that without Climate Scientists we would have no idea there was a problem with rapid sea level rise. We also would have no idea why we have to pay the world’s highest electricity prices to save ourselves and the rest of the planet by our extreme sacrifice, especially when 98.7% of CO2 pollution is from other countries.
21 Jul: ScienceAlert: Ocean Circulation Has Slowed Down Dramatically, And It Can’t Be Fully Explained by Climate Change Models
The decline is 10 times larger than expected.
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
Global warming isn’t the cause of slowdown in a huge circulation pattern in the Atlantic Ocean, which is, in fact, part of regular, decades-long cycle that will affect temperatures in coming decades, according to a new study…
“Climate scientists have expected the Atlantic overturning circulation to decline long-term under global warming, but we only have direct measurements of its strength since April 2004. And the decline measured since then is 10 times larger than expected,” says corresponding author Ka-Kit Tung, a professor of applied mathematics at the University of Washington with an adjunct appointment in atmospheric sciences…
“Many have focused on the fact that it’s declining very rapidly, and that if the trend continues it will go past a tipping point, bringing a catastrophe such as an ice age. It turns out that none of that is going to happen in the near future. The fast response may instead be part of a natural cycle and there are signs that the decline is already ending.”…
“The global climate models can project what’s going to happen long-term if carbon dioxide increases by a certain amount, but they currently lack the capability to predict surface warming in the next few decades, which requires a knowledge of how much the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases is being absorbed by the oceans,” Tung says…
The paper appears in Nature (LINK)…
Those infallible ‘climate models’. Usually atmospheric models with little idea what is going on in the ocean the mobile heat bank with 340 x the mass of the thin air above, but you have to marvel at the soft language of the wise ‘scientists’.
“It Can’t Be Fully Explained by Climate Change Models. The decline is 10 times larger than expected.”
So with the best fudging, the ‘experts’ are only out a factor of ten? That is classified as not fully explained? Obviously the greatest moral challenge of a generation then. Has to be.
21 Jul: UK Telegraph: ‘King of mining’ Hannam switches focus to tidal power
By Jillian Ambrose
He was once dubbed “the king of mining”, but now deal-maker ***Ian Hannam is throwing his weight behind renewable energy with an investment in tidal power.
Just weeks after ministers dashed hopes for the £1.3bn Swansea Bay tidal project, the former JP Morgan rainmaker and special forces soldier confirmed that he is poised to plough millions into Tidal Electric’s rival project. He will join backers including Dale Vince, the controversial green industrialist who founded Ecotricity.
can’t recall Hannam and his background being mentioned in any of the Swansea Tidal stuff I’ve read previously:
***Bloomberg: JP Morgan Chase & Co: ***Ian Hannam
He is an investment banker with more than 30 years experience in capital markets and resource financing. Mr. Hannam was instrumental in the development of the capital market units of Salomon Brothers and later JP Morgan. He served as the Chairman of J.P. Morgan Capital Markets for Afghanistan at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Mr. Hannam served as the Chairman of Global Capital Markets at JP Morgan until April 2012. He served as a Member of Supervisory Board at Tantalus Rare Earths AG from October 2012 to September 24, 2013. Mr. Hannam was a Member of Executive Committee at JPMorgan Cazenove Limited. He is also a Chartered Civil Engineer (MICE, CEngl, FEANI). Mr. Hannam is a former Captain in the Territorial Army and has BSc. Engineering degree from Imperial College and MBA and MSc. Economics from London Business School… https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=2102882&privcapId=137565157
He is probably right. The accepted total failure of Wind Power is putting pressure on governments so they are going to direct the money to that old favorite of King Canute.. Tidal power.
If this madness continues to its logical conclusion we might combine solar and wind and use solar wind power generation in space, which not too surprisingly has been considered: Solar Wind Power: Generating Power In The Future There’s certainly no shortage of really dumb ideas.
No it wasn’t meant to be a joke. It’s no less serious than the idea a long time ago of using solar sails to propel spacecraft. Sure if the sail is big enough it could propel a spacecraft but unless you want to wait a very long time to reach your destination it would be far quicker to use traditional propulsion techniques. You also would have the problem of how to stop, and the other problem of how to use it in the return trip. People do come up with some really silly ideas because they don’t think it through, much like the renewables saga.
As we revisit old sources of power, short of a donkey in a harness, there was an 1880’s system at the entrance to Port Phillip Bay. If you are in the area you can see it, a steel sphere (Backbeach road) on a chain. As the sea rose and fell, the chain was pulled with the sea rise. Power for a short time once a day.
The problem is not the Green’s fascination with ‘free’ but the cost of harvesting and the need to harvest more. Coal is also free and you can bring the coal to one point. Solar is the worse, not only as bad as tidal but the energy available is pitiful per square meter.
So we are doomed to have others spend our money on their post medieval ideas. Never a real scientist involved. Except the directors of kangaroo boy Flannery’s hot rocks scheme which failed with $93Million of our money in a government investment. At the time I noted the SA (university) directors drew salaries of $400,000 a year for consultation. The public service calls this ‘research’. Failure is guaranteed and the players get paid anyway. Great fun. No risk. Too bad about all the public money down a hole.
ENVIRONNEMENT – DES IDÉES POUR SAUVER LA GRANDE BARRIÈRE DE CORAIL
L’Australie avait lancé un appel aux chercheurs pour trouver des solutions pour sauver le précieux récif. Voici leurs idées.
Le gouvernement australien fait tout pour sauver sa Grande barrière de corail.
22.07.2018, 00h42
Le gouvernement australien cherche à réparer la Grande barrière de corail, joyau du patrimoine de l’Humanité est menacé par le changement climatique. Augmenter la capacité réflective des nuages ou recouvrir la mer d’un film protecteur figurent parmi leurs options.
L’immense récif qui fait la taille du Japon ou de l’Italie a subi en 2016 et 2017 deux graves épisodes de blanchissement du fait des hausses de la température de l’eau. Les spécialistes estiment qu’une zone de 2300 kilomètres de long pourrait avoir subi des dégâts irrémédiables.
Le gouvernement australien a promis de lutter contre le changement climatique en général mais aussi d’étudier des mesures à plus court terme pour donner un peu de répit au plus vaste ensemble corallien du monde. Dans ce contexte, Canberra avait lancé en janvier un appel aux chercheurs, débloquant deux millions de dollars australiens destinés à financer des idées innovantes pour sauver le site. Celui-ci est aussi menacé par les activités industrielles et agricoles, ainsi que par l’acanthaster pourpre, une étoile de mer invasive, dévoreuse de coraux.
Six projets sur 69
Six projets sélectionnés sur un total de 69 propositions seront testés pour vérifier leur faisabilité, a annoncé le gouvernement vendredi. L’un d’eux envisage d’éclaircir les nuages en y injectant des cristaux de sel marin, ce qui augmente leurs capacités réflectives. David Mead, chercheur à l’Institut australien des sciences marines, a déclaré que la proposition avait un vrai potentiel même si elle pouvait apparaître à première vue farfelue.
«Notre équipe étudie l’utilisation d’un embout très fin pour injecter des petites gouttelettes d’eau de mer à un rythme de plusieurs milliards par seconde. L’eau se vaporise et il reste des particules de sel qui flotteront dans l’air. Si on peut les injecter dans le système, on peut augmenter le taux de lumière solaire qui est réfléchie», a-t-il dit au groupe de médias ABC.
Film biodégradable
Autre idée, un film biodégradable ultra-fin contenant des particules réfléchissantes et qui viendrait recouvrir certains des récifs pour les protéger de la chaleur. «Ce qui est bien avec ce film c’est qu’il ne fait que l’épaisseur d’une molécule, on peut nager à travers et il se reformera tout seul», a déclaré sur ABC Andrew Negri, un autre scientifique de l’Institut.
Parmi les autres pistes sélectionnées, la production massive de larves de corail grâce à l’impression 3D de surfaces pour soutenir leur croissance, ou le prélèvement et la relocalisation de larves. (ats/nxp)
ENVIRONMENT – IDEAS FOR SAVING THE GREAT CORAL BARRIER
Australia had appealed to researchers to find solutions to save the precious reef. Here are their ideas.
The Australian government is doing everything to save its Great Barrier Reef.
22.07.2018, 00:42
The Australian government is seeking to repair the Great Barrier Reef, a world heritage jewel is threatened by climate change. Increasing the reflective ability of clouds or covering the sea with a protective film are among their options.
The immense reef that is the size of Japan or Italy suffered in 2016 and 2017 two serious bleaching episodes due to increases in water temperature. Experts estimate that an area of 2300 kilometers long could have suffered irreparable damage.
The Australian government has pledged to fight climate change in general, but also to look at shorter-term measures to give some relief to the world’s largest coral ensemble. In this context, Canberra launched a call for researchers in January, unblocking two million Australian dollars to fund innovative ideas to save the site. It is also threatened by industrial and agricultural activities, as well as the purple acanthaster, an invasive coral-eating starfish.
Six projects out of 69
Six projects selected out of a total of 69 proposals will be tested to verify their feasibility, the government announced on Friday. One of them plans to thin the clouds by injecting sea salt crystals, which increases their reflective abilities. David Mead, a researcher at the Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, said the proposal had real potential even though it might seem far-fetched.
“Our team is studying the use of a very fine nozzle to inject small droplets of seawater at a rate of several billion per second. The water vaporizes and there are still particles of salt that will float in the air. If we can inject them into the system, we can increase the amount of sunlight that is reflected, “he told the ABC media group.
Biodegradable film
Another idea is an ultra-thin biodegradable film containing reflective particles that would cover some of the reefs to protect them from heat. “What’s good about this film is that it’s just the thickness of a molecule, you can swim through it and it will reform itself,” ABC’s Andrew Negri, another scientist from the US, said. ‘Institute.
Among other selected tracks, the massive production of coral larvae through the 3D printing of surfaces to support their growth, or the collection and relocation of larvae. (Ps / nxp)
Slow Train” is a song by the British duo Flanders and Swann, written in July 1963.[1] It laments the closure of railway stations and lines brought about by the Beeching cuts in the 1960s, and also the passing of a way of life.[2]…
“Slow Train” takes the form of an elegiac list song of railway stations which has been likened to a litany.[3] Its evocation of quiet, rural stations is highly romanticised and uses imagery such as the presence of a station cat or milk churns on a platform to illustrate a “less hurried way of life” that is about to vanish:[2]
Just back from the long flight from the UK to Melbourne and can’t get to sleep!
One of my short bucket list activities for Cornwall was to take the train from St Erths to St Ives, because I heard about it on the Flanders and Swan song; “The Slow Train”. Some how the phrase has stuck in my mind for nearly sixty years.
“From St Erths to St Ives
They”ve all past out of our lives”
Not so in the case of the branch line from St Erths (on the main Cornwall Line) to St Ives( A popular beach holiday location). The Line is still open. The trip takes just 15 minutes, which is disappointing because the sea side scenery is very beautiful. The Beaches there are as good as anywhere I have seen. Real broad golden sand, not like the pebble beaches on the south coast.
St Ives is a popular destination in summer but car parking is very limited. If you want to go St Ives the train is a good option. We enjoyed a sumptuous Cornish Tea (ie scones with cream and jam) at a hotel with magnificent view of the bay.
Jetlag is horrible! I hope the sleep pattern re-sets soon Peter C.
We still have our old LP’s of Flanders and Swann, one of which has the slow train song. Beeching didn’t do a lot of favours to the country with so many line and station closures. My favourite of theirs (F and S that is) is the song of patriotic prejudice 🙂 Cue red thumbs, the snowflakes won’t like it. 😉
The dubious origins of the anti drinking straw movement. It now has a life of its own.
QUOTE
That anti-straw movement? It’s all based on one 9-year-old’s suspect statistic
Nine-year-old Milo Cress launched a campaign to ditch plastic straws in 2011 propelled by an unverified figure. Now it’s turned into a movement.
The origin of the movement to ban plastic straws may come as a surprise: It began with a 9-year-old boy named Milo Cress and his 2011 campaign, “Be Straw Free,” which launched to raise awareness about plastic waste.
His big finding? Americans use more than 500 million drinking straws daily, enough to fill 125 school buses. That figure has become highly touted since, referenced in straw ban coverage from The New York Times and National Geographic to reports from the National Park Service (and USA TODAY).
Now 16 years old, Cress just finished his junior year of high school and finds himself the face of a movement felt by global chains from Starbucks to McDonald’s. But it’s not without criticism — especially of his 500 million stat.
so… no one else – no scientific paper, no EPA report, no city or region report, no private individual, no water way management authority – has ever looked at plastic straws in the environment anywhere in the world in any eco-system? Just this 9 year old?
When I watched the next video called 5 Wind Turbine which Failed (Environmentally friendly?), It was proceeded by a long Ad showing the construction of a Wind Turbine at the Mt Gellibrand site (Victoria). There is a huge lump of reinforced concrete at the base which will not get removed in a hurry. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVHzfUWul2Y
The Ads was by Acconia. I am not sure if it will show every time the Video is played, nor how to link to the Ad. It was quite interesting.
19 Jul: Irish Times: Ireland has much to learn from Germany’s Energiewende
Plugging into the power of ‘citizen energy’ thanks to cheap renewable technologies
“We take the sun from the roof to the wineglass,” says Tomas Huster. “We know all about climate change here – we now have to use grapes that used to be grown only in Italy.”…
The solar panels are also a viable financial proposition, contributing to the Huster bottom line. Most of the electricity is used right here on site, but the rest is sold through a community energy co-operative, UrStrom, which owns and operates the PV installation on the roof…
“The EU Clean Energy Package made it clear that people living in the EU have the right to create consume, and trade their own energy,” says Klaus Grieger of UrStrom. “At the moment there is a big shift to solar. We believe it’s a human right to use the sun. You cannot tax the sun!”
“Even without the climate issue it’s a no-brainer,” says Prof Peter Beck of the Trier University of Applied Sciences. “You’re adding value, independence and development instead of sending your money away to Saudi Arabia and Russia. There are now 400 villages in Germany that are basically energy independent. Mayors talk to mayors and they make it work.”…
With Ireland under growing pressure to meet its climate targets, the government here is due to announce a new Renewable Energy Support Scheme (RESS), which will include measures to incentivise communities and promote solar energy, which has been a slow burner here. The heatwave may have proved that there is no shortage of sun, and consultants for the Department of Climate Action believe rooftop solar can be financially viable – without supports – in at least one region by 2025 and that ground mounted PV could be viable in several regions by 2030…
But even in Germany gaining support for renewable energy projects isn’t always easy…
As in Ireland there has been a growing pushback…
Former mayor Bertram Fleck: “When I talk to my Green Party colleagues I talk about the climate,” he says, but when I talk to farmers and entrepreneurs I talk about money, and ask them why do you send your money away to oil producers?”…
“The windmills may be in one, spoiling the view of the others, so I suggest they share the revenue, giving some to individuals and some to the community to spend on social services, for example,” he says. “There’s a lot of creativity involved, and it depends on how agile and sensitive the person promoting the development is.”… https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/ireland-has-much-to-learn-from-germany-s-energiewende-1.3566640
30 Jun: Daily Mail: Smart meters to charge customers more during peak times raising the prospect of inflated bills during Easter and Christmas holidays
•Consumers face increased energy costs during times of greatest demand
•Smart meters have been touted as a way of ensuring energy bills are fairer
•It is feared, energy companies will use the technology to increase their profits
•Energy prices under the new system could change every 30 minutes
By Sara Smyth
Energy firms using smart meters have a ‘hidden agenda’ to charge customers more when demand for power surges, an expert has warned…
The former head of gas and electric meter technology at the energy regulator Ofgem, Jerry Fulton, said the industry will quickly move beyond a two-tier peak and off-peak system to prices that change every 30 minutes depending on demand…
He told The Daily Telegraph: ‘I believe that the hidden agenda behind smart meters is that they will allow half-hourly charging.
‘Instead of having two charge rates – day and night – the price of energy will change every half hour, so when solar and wind generation are low and usage is high the price of electricity will rise steeply.’…
Just looked at the AEMO electricity generation balances over the last 24 hours.
Wind has been generally stable, delivering 2.5 GW late yesterday to 3 GW this morning.
Hydro peaked at over 4 GW yesterday evening and this morning, dropping to a low of 1.5 GW during the day and overnight. Is that the minimum required to keep the rivers flowing?
So that left fossil fuels to balance demand, from a low generation of 15 GW midday yesterday to a peak of 21 GW at 6pm, back to a low of 15 GW overnight, and back up to 21 GW this morning, and now down to the midday low of 18 GW. As Tony has pointed out in his excellent reports, on average coal has been delivering about 72% of demand, gas 8%, hydro 10%, wind 6% and solar 4%.
Give thanks that we still have enough reliable and dispatchable fossil fuels to respond to demand. Remember that there must be at least another 3 GW of fossil generators on standby for when the wind generates close to zero GW as occurred last week.
Now consider what happens when wind/solar double their average contribution from 10% to 20%. (Despite Frydenberg and the ESG’s NEG saying the future is technology agnostic, the only planned new generation is wind/solar given state government commitments to higher % “renewables”). So coal/gas will have to reduce their average contribution from 80% to 70%, but they must still be available to deliver up to 95% of demand with 5% hydro when wind/solar fail to deliver. Yet the rotten NEG would assure us that their “modelling” says electricity prices will come down, despite what will be an increasingly unstable grid. Would you buy a used car from these bungling bureaucrats and pitiful pollies?
Yes it’s so revealing that both major parties are insisting we keep reducing our emissions by increasing our reliance on renewables. Yet both are still saying their energy polices will reduce power prices. In any other nation in a similar situation I bet the polls would be showing one or more of the minor parties catching up if not overtaking the majors. I suppose it proves the point that Australians are by and large either very gullible or still have too much money to worry about power prices, depending on the person’s situation and political persuasion.
this is unbelievable, even if it involves a NeverTrumper Curbelo:
22 Jul: Hotair: House Republican proposing carbon tax this week
by Taylor Millard
Florida Congressman Carlos Curbelo is getting ready to introduce a bill repealing the gas tax in exchange for a carbon tax. It seems rather odd the Miami Republican wants to chart this path, especially after the House GOP overwhelmingly denounced (LINK) the notion of a carbon tax last week, but Curbelo isn’t backing down from his proposal. He told (LINK) Miami Herald his proposal is just a “first step” in the discussion…
22 Jul: Hotair: House Republican proposing carbon tax this week
Florida Congressman Carlos Curbelo is getting ready to introduce a bill repealing the gas tax in exchange for a carbon tax. It seems rather odd the Miami Republican wants to chart this path, especially after the House GOP overwhelmingly denounced (LINK) the notion of a carbon tax last week…
Then by magic, by 2030 the solar prices drop to $1033/kW. That is less than half the current price!
Batteries have a greater sprinkling of pixie dust. The current price for a Tesla Powerwall works out at $944/kWh. AEMO price for battery storage is given as $740/kWh. AEMO somehow get that down to $610/kWh by 2030. And the battery life is given as 15 years.
These are the basic numbers that are fiddled with to make decisions on the future of the NEM network.
It will be interesting to see how ACCC and AEMO stack up. All these people need to be put in a room and asked one simple question – What is needed to get the lowest cost reliable power supply to Australian consumers!
The AEMO report embodies the Climate Change religion – they are true zealots of the cause.
And guess where AEMO got their cost projections from? Why that bastion of green warmistas at the CSIRO. What number do you need to justify more renewables? No problem. So simple to make numbers up for 2030.
Rooftop panels with batteries are fine, the market disruption is caused by the inverters feeding unused current onto the grid, analogous to dumping in international trade, and the owners are actually rewarded instead of penalised for the predatoriness.
The NEG will continue subsidies for renwables until 2030. By that time most coal fired plants will have shut down as the increasing disruption takes it toll in lost revenue and increased maintenance. Then the true believers think that there will be no choice but to go for 100% renewables with pumped storage and batteries etc (blackouts).
They will get a shock as the public turns against them. I give the Liberal Party 5 years maximum before it drops into the also ran group. Labor will survive as there are always enough gullible who think that the Government has a big bag of money to give them, but when that turns out to be a mirage they will be wracked by divisions and lose hope of office.
Hard times coming along with colder weather will soon see reality in place.
never mind it was a complete flop – FakeNewsMSM keep up the PR:
The Teen-Agers Fighting for Climate Justice
The New Yorker-11 hours ago
Youth Climate Change Activists Marched on Washington, DC
TeenVogue.com-13 hours ago
Young Activists Rally Against Climate Change in Keene
International-New Hampshire Public Radio-8 hours ago
21 Jul: Reuters: U.S. loses bid to end children’s climate change lawsuit
by Jonathan Stempel
A federal appeals court in San Francisco on Friday rejected the Trump administration’s renewed bid to dismiss a lawsuit by young activists who say the U.S. government is ignoring the perils of climate change.
By a 3-0 vote, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said the government fell short of the “high bar” needed to dismiss the Oregon case, originally brought in 2015 against the administration of President Barack Obama…
Good…let the greenies perjur themselves in court trying to pass off scientically wrong information. The court trashed Gores dumb movie, i suspect the outcone will be similar.
Claim is that “…considered investing in coal generation in the state’s Upper Spencer Gulf after buying Arrium’s steel mill last year but found solar backed by “firming” storage technologies made better economic sense.”
The other “free renewable”.
We keep being told that the sun and wind are free, and therefore by 2030 or 2050 our electricity will be cheaper. So we won’t need that “dirty” coal, and why would we let anyone dig holes in our lovely earth searching for inflammable hydrocarbons when we can generate “clean” energy?
But we have been ignoring the third leg of this renewable trifecta – rain water is free!
Just imagine every time rain falls we collect that water at roof level and run it through mini turbines – surely enough energy to recharge our mobile phones.
But wait, there’s more. We store that rain water, and use our surplus midday solar electricity to pump that water back up to rooftop holding tanks so that now we can generate the electricity we need at dinner time – our very own pumped hydro system.
And then: Every time you flush, as that water goes into the underground sewers again it passes through another turbine as it wends its way down to sea level.
Do I apply to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for a grant, or the Clean Energy Council, or the CSIRO, or some gullible greenies, or will Musk bankroll me?
Yes folks, it’s comedy hour. By 2050, every household will enjoy energy utopia.
The triumph of our industrial age has been the centralising of industry into larger, more specialised units. The new-improved industrial age will be cottage industries again, or so it seems.
Trump could cure cancer and his detractors would still shout at him “But what have you done today?”
This is a link to a short video by Dick Morris, one time Bill Clinton CofS where he explains that the summit with Putin was to prevent a war between Israel and Iraq into which Syria, Russia and the US may be drawn.
As readers of this blog are well aware, two of my hot-buttons are: (1) the claim that CO2 is a heat-trapping gas, and (2) because CO2 is a heat-trapping gas, its presence in the earth’s atmosphere contributes to (or possibly is the main reason we have) global-warming/climate-change/climate-disruption. The Logic Of Science hosted by Fallacy Man is one of many blogs that make these claims. Fallacy Man recently posted a thread on his blog entitled: “6 major problems with a flat earth.” As I understand it, Fallacy Man (a) has chosen “flat-earthers” as the “poster child” for illogical arguments, and (b) asks science-deniers, anti-vaccers, climate-change-deniers and others to revisit their reasoning to see if it contains the same kinds of errors inherent in the flat-earther’s logic.
I decided to do what Fallacy Man asked. Specifically, my logic told me (a) CO2 doesn’t “trap-heat” because heat can’t be trapped, an (b) therefore the argument that the “heat-trapping” property of CO2 gas is the reason CO2 gas in the earth’s atmosphere warms the earth is bogus. When I revisited my logic I couldn’t identify any logic errors similar to the logic errors of flat-earthers. In fact, my logic seemed to be correct. However, just because I can’t identify errors in my logic doesn’t mean errors don’t exist. As a result, I decided to post my logic in brief form on Fallacy Man’s thread and ask him to revisit his logic on the off chance his logic is flawed. For those of you who are interested in this subject and Fallacy Man’s response, please visit URL: https://thelogicofscience.com/2018/07/19/6-major-problems-with-a-flat-earth/#comments.
134
97% of the members of The Flat Earth Society agree that the Earth is flat and The Flat Earth Society has members all around the globe.
181
Shouldn’t that be “across” the globe?
220
Don’t insult Flat Earthers you’ll push them over the edge.
The only thing Flat Earthers have to fear is sphere itself.
Also consider cats would have knocked everything off the edge of the Earth by now if it were flat.
461
🙂
61
If you’re trying to kill with laughter then you’re very close to the edge. The Earth is too flat to argue with, just step out of your house and look down the street. Does that look anything but flat? Of course it’s flat.
60
No it’s not flat! Look! There are hills, hills everywhere!
30
Good observation, Rob. But is it necesary for the hills to exist on the surface of a sphere? If the Earth was really round, wouldn’t that necessitate everyone in Australia to be standing on their heads to be right side up? And how would they keep from falling off?
I dunno. It’s hard not to conclude that the Earth is flat. I see hills all around me too but still can’t see the Earth as round. It must be flat. 😉
41
Nah, you’ve got it upside down, Roy. It’s you guys who are in danger of falling off. You always look at the globe upside down. Down Under is really Up Above.
20
That’s one of your best, Yonniestone.
I’ve learnt: I didn’t have a cup of tea anywhere near my keyboard this time :-).
70
What globe?
40
You beat me to it Kinky.
10
Sure, but has anyone ever done a survey of these people to see if they are “climate scientists” or “climate deniers”?
We see the sort of statement where an writer claims the “denier” connection but these are just made-up, with no empirical support.
Anyway, if anyone has an hour to kill, follow some of flat earth articles. Fun.
Modern Flat-Earthers via Wikipedia
10
Firstly Reed I thought Fallacy Man wrote a decent article on the Flat Earth idea but the “climate denier” comparison has been done many times before.
Your response is well reasoned and probably wasted on the unreasonable, I would add the CO2 heat trapping hypothesis fails also on the observation of if past CO2 levels surpassed 400 ppm why isn’t the Earth a desolate moon from the runaway reaction of CO2 burning up the atmosphere?
I know you are all over this but its just a suggestion, good luck.
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Given flat earthers believe there’s a 400m high wall if ice at the edge guarded by UN secret soldiers there is zero chance of convincing any of them they are wrong. It’s probably due to some hatred of the norm that drives their belief, much like the CAGW believers. They just hate being told the truth more that they hate the truth itself.
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PeterS
“Given flat earthers believe there’s a 400m high wall if ice at the edge guarded by UN secret soldiers there is zero chance of convincing any of them they are wrong.”
Another reason to cut off UN funding
20
Well if CO2 higher than 400ppm. causes heat death of the biosphere I should point out that the level was well above that all through “The Reign of the Dinosaurs”, so logic means that dinosaurs were killed off by heat not some pesky asteroid.
Claim your Nobel Prize but do not pass go.
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Reed, I am no scientist, but I have a question regarding your statement that ‘heat cannot be trapped’. Suppose I have a container covered in insulation; surely any heat inside this container is trapped. Can you please explain . .
Regards GeoffW
22
will always dissapate over time, like your oven when you turn it off. It dissolves into a semantic argument about the definition of trapped, duration to have an effect etc.
30
Geoffrey, I agree with yarpos—eventually the argument devolves into a definition of the verb “trap.” As such, you are the final arbitrator for your acceptance/rejection of the statement: “CO2 traps heat.”
In the statement: “CO2 traps heat,” the word “trap” is a verb. At one time I queried the internet for a definition of the word “trap” when used as a verb. Below is one such response—see https://www.google.com/search?q=trap&rlz=1C1EODB_enUS545US701&oq=trap&aqs=chrome..69i57j35i39j0l4.3399j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8. If you don’t like this response, by all means perform your own search.
Trap/
verb
verb: trap; 3rd person present: traps; past tense: trapped; past participle: trapped; gerund or present participle: trapping.
1. catch (an animal) in a trap.
Synonyms: confine, cut off, corner, shut in, pen in, hem in, imprison, hold captive
“a rat trapped in a barn”
a) prevent (someone) from escaping from a place.”
“twenty workers were trapped by flames”
Synonyms: snare, entrap, ensnare, lay a trap for
b) have (something, typically a part of the body) held tightly by something so that it cannot move or be freed.
“he had trapped his finger in a spring-loaded hinge”
c) induce (someone), by means of trickery or deception, to do something they would not otherwise want to do.
“I hoped to trap him into an admission”
Synonyms: trick, dupe, deceive, lure, inveigle, beguile, fool, hoodwink
d) BASEBALL, AMERICAN FOOTBALL
catch (the ball) after it has briefly touched the ground.
e) SOCCER
bring (the ball) under control with the feet or other part of the body on receiving it.
Note that of the five above usages of “trap” as a verb, usages c), d), and e) don’t apply to heat and the earth/earth-atmosphere system. This leaves the a) and b) usages. Usage a) specifically contains the word “prevent” as in “prevent from escaping from a place.” To me the implication is clear. If CO2 “traps” heat, then CO2 prevents heat from escaping; and in the case of atmospheric CO2, this means CO2 prevents heat from leaving the earth/earth-atmosphere system. Usage b) implies whatever is trapped “cannot move or be freed” so that if CO2 traps heat, the trapped heat cannot be freed.
Returning to your specific proposition: “Suppose I have a container covered in insulation; surely any heat inside this container is trapped.” I say “no”—at least in the sense that the insulation “traps” the heat. If the container is placed in an environment whose temperature is lower than the temperature of the contents of the container, independent of the insulator material, heat will flow from the material in the container to the environment—thus independent of the material comprising the insulator at a minimum it can be said that at least some of the heat escapes the container, and as such that heat is definitely not “trapped.” If the container is placed in an environment whose temperature is higher than the temperature of the contents of the container, heat will flow from the environment to the material in the container. In this sense someone might say the heat is trapped in the container; but the fact that the container is or isn’t insulated has nothing to do with such “trapping.” Independent of the presence/absence of insulation, all of the heat originally in the container will stay in the container if and only if the environment is at a temperature higher than the container. Similarly, Independent of the presence/absence of insulation, some of the heat in the container will always leave the container if the environment is at a temperature lower than the container. Thus, it might be acceptable to say “temperature can trap heat,” but it is never the case that “insulator X traps heat.”
In the case of a thermos bottle whose insulation is CO2 gas, the heat in the thermos bottle (container) will leave the thermos bottle (container) at a rate faster than would be the case for a vacuum thermos bottle. So in the thermos bottle case, insulation actually results in the more rapid release of heat. As such, if anything I would conclude from the thermos bottle example: “CO2 releases heat.” Not just imagine how difficult it would be to convince the general public that atmospheric CO2 will increase the earth’s temperature if every time such a claim was made it was accompanied by the statement “CO2 releases heat.”
I hope this helps.
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Thanks Reed for your response, let me think/digest what you have said.
GeoffW . .
10
Ok Reed, two points I would raise;
1. What about a super insulator eg the void outside of the earth’s atmosphere? Heat energy through space is not conductive but irradiative. So that heat energy leaving the planet can only be radiative.
2. In non-scientific terminology are we saying that additional CO2 in the atmosphere may act as an extra hurdle (or increased threshold)to the irradiation of energy away from the planet, thus leading to a rise in temperature. Is this in fact the climate warming argument?
GeoffW
20
We’ve gone from 360 parts per million in the 50’s, to about 410 parts per million CO2 in the 2010’s. The total effect of this increase is theoretical only and can not be measured.
Effectively zero difference. It’s a mathematical construct only to believe that it makes a difference.
The oceans of the world, and the atmospheric water vapor makes a millions time more effect on temperature than CO2 could ever hope to.
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… but Greg: you are forgetting the positive feedback of CO2 on the water vapour which amplifies the CO2 effect (or some such Cargo Cultish utterances from the IPCC) 🙂
50
Good explanation Greg . .
GeoffW
00
The only positive feedback I regularly encounter is that evident when trying to grade a flat track with a dozer.
The dozer blade, being forward of the tracks sees a magnified response to any undulations encountered by the tracks and thus lifts more or sinks in more. Which is amplified when the tracks get to that response. And continues on the “dozer woopsies” unless you try to counter.
On the other hand graders have the blade between the front and rear axles so tends to dampen any ground undulations.
20
Um no.
Consider the earth heating unevenly as it does with heat over land different to heat over water. This creates low and high pressure systems and air flows from high to low. In this way heat is converted from heat to wind kinetic energy and is dissipated by pushing against the earth changing the earth’s rotation slightly in a classic Newtonian equal and opposite reaction. This heat lost to the momentum of the earth is never radiated anywhere, so radiation is NOT the only way heat leaves the climate system. There are dozen of other ways heat is removed by the earth, photosynthesis uses up the incoming shortwave, entropy (weathering of rocks), lightning (electricity) , thunder – sound energy, endothermic chemical reactions like conversion of cholesterol to vitamin d in mammals. There are many heat sinks other than radiation.
41
Bob,
Those visual energy balance diagrams used by the alarmists were always a joke.
20
Geoffrey,
Point 1: What about a super insulator eg the void outside of the earth’s atmosphere? Heat energy through space is not conductive but irradiative. So that heat energy leaving the planet can only be radiative.
You’re correct. Heat energy can leave the earth/earth-atmosphere system only via radiation. The question then becomes “Which situation exhibits the greatest rate of radiative heat loss: (a) an earth without an atmosphere at a surface temperate Tno, or (b) an earth with an atmosphere with an earth surface temperature Tno, and an atmosphere (a) that can absorb a portion of the radiation emitted from the earth’s surface, and (b) whose temperature at the earth surface is Tno but whose temperature decreases with altitude at a rate of approximately 6K per kilometer?”
I do not have the answer to this question. I believe the answer is very complex and no one may have the answer. Here are a few things to think about. To keep things simple, in what follows I am going to assume (a) the earth is a sphere, (b) the temperature of the earth’s surface is everywhere the same, and (c) the temperature of the earth’s atmosphere is a function of altitude but not a function of latitude and/or longitude. These assumptions are obviously not valid; but they can be used as a starting point to at least start a discussion of the complexity of the real-world situation.
In the atmosphereless case, an earth at a temperature of approximately 300K radiates pretty much like a black body. Since the earth is a sphere and since there is no atmosphere, all radiation emitted from the earth’s surface escapes to space. [Note: Radiation emitted from terrain features on the surface of the real earth may travel in a direction towards other surface terrain features. As such, even without an atmosphere, not all of the radiation emitted from the surface of an “undulating” earth escapes to space. Some of the emitted radiation will be intercepted by other earth terrain features.] Since (a) there is no atmosphere, (b) the surface area of a sphere is easily computed, and (c) all the radiation emitted from the earth’s surface escapes to space, it’s relatively straight-forward to compute the rate energy leaves the earth.
The atmosphere-earth case is much more complex. First, even for a spherical earth, some of the radiation emitted from the surface of the earth will be absorbed by the atmosphere and thus not escape to space. Countering this effect is the fact that some radiation emitted from the atmosphere will escape to space. Computing the rate energy is radiated from a volume of gas is extremely complex, much less computing the fraction of that radiated energy that escapes to space. Some of the radiation emitted from a volume of gas will be absorbed by other volumes of gas. Thus, even if the temperature profile of the earth as a function of altitude were known, computing the rate energy emitted from the atmosphere escapes to space is no simple matter. At a minimum, it will depend upon the absorption/emission properties and the densities of the absorptive/radiative gases in the earth’s atmosphere. Keep in mind, that although the earth/earth-atmosphere system can only lose heat via radiation, the atmosphere at various altitudes can be heated by radiation, conduction and convection. I weakly believe convection is the dominant means by which heat gets transferred to the upper atmosphere.
Bottom line, for the case of atmospheric CO2, I don’t really have an opinion as to whether the presence of atmospheric CO2 will result in an increased earth surface temperature. However, for the gas water vapor (the dominant earth atmosphere greenhouse gas), I do have an opinion. My opinion may be wrong, but I’ll hold it until someone proves it to be wrong. Water on the earth and in the earth’s atmosphere goes through a cycle. Water is evaporated from the oceans and becomes water vapor; the water vapor rises in the atmosphere where clouds are formed; and the water vapor in the clouds condenses to water and returns to the earth via precipitation. Converting one gram of water to one gram of water vapor takes a lot of energy. For the most part this energy comes from the water itself with the net effect that evaporation tends to keep the temperature of the water below the ambient air temperature. Thus evaporation of water removes heat from the surface of the oceans and acts to cool the surface of the earth. Via convection the water vapor rises in the atmosphere where it is condensed back into water. This condensation process gives up a lot of heat—primarily to the gaseous molecules in the vicinity of the condensation. Thus, the condensation process tends to heat the gases in the upper atmosphere. Those heated gases (along with the water itself) then radiate energy. Because those heated gases are high in the atmosphere, a photon emitted from a gas near the condensation process has a better chance of escaping to space than a photon of radiation emitted from the surface of the earth. Thus, for water/water vapor, convection acts as a conveyer belt for taking heat away from the surface of the earth where its emission as radiation has a limited chance of escaping to space and moving that heat to an altitude where its emission as radiation has a better change of escaping to space. In my opinion (and opinion only) this process on the whole cools the surface of the earth as is evidenced by the fact that the temperature of the water over a large portion of the earth’s surface is lower than the temperature of the surrounding error. Bottom line, the water cycle acts like an evaporative air conditioner for the earth surface, and such has a net cooling effect on the earth’s surface temperature.
CO2 does not go through a similar evaporation/transportation/condensation process so CO2 doesn’t act like an evaporative air conditioner. As a result, in my mind it’s entirely possible that the greenhouse gas CO2 has a net surface temperature heating effect, and the greenhouse gas water vapor has a net cooling effect.
Point 2: In non-scientific terminology are we saying that additional CO2 in the atmosphere may act as an extra hurdle (or increased threshold) to the irradiation of energy away from the planet, thus leading to a rise in temperature. Is this in fact the climate warming argument?
There are as many climate warming arguments as there are AGW advocates. Thus, I can’t say if this is THE climate warming argument; but it is one argument. And yes, some people say that CO2 in the atmosphere acts as an extra hurdle for the radiation of energy away from the planet. That argument obviously has merit as radiation emitted from the surface of the earth must clear the hurdle. But as noted above, that argument is not the whole story. So although the argument establishes the possibility that atmospheric greenhouse gases will increase the surface temperature of the earth, in my mind the argument don’t even come close to proving the case.
10
Reed thanks again for your response. There’s a lot to look at and it maybe beyond my understanding. I shall however try. Clearly the problem as I stated is not so simple.
Regards GeoffW
10
Yes.
00
You actually make some good points! I may have to do some more research, but, if the CO2 global warming hypothesis were correct, then there should be a discernible increase in the atmospheric temperatures? i.e., CO2 retaining heat? I’m pretty sure we are only talking about the troposphere and maybe the stratosphere.
I mean, there is great focus on surface temperatures, and that makes sense, because that is where we live, but, if the earth were warming up, then that should be able to be measured in the atmosphere? I’ll go looking while some of you mull………………….
42
The insulation would need to have a conductivity coefficient of zero, and that’s not possible.
40
Even coffee in a thermos will cool over time. An incandescent lightbulb gets hot and is in a vacuum insulated by glass. What happens when you switch it off? If the element is really durable, what happens to a CO^2 filled light bulb after you switch it off?
00
Speaking of cold…with wind chill ( with basically no wind ), it was -12 C in Goulburn, NSW this morning…
The MIA cometh…..
40
Hi Reed,
Good post for No 1.
With respect to “heat trapping” would you like to consider the Infrared window at ten microns.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=LXL4hF7l&id=B7D234E7B2F926706DC67310FD516C0E0C3B4106&thid=OIP.LXL4hF7lMSohkcliL5ZnQwHaEf&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com%2f2011%2f02%2fgw-spectrum-summary1.jpg&exph=911&expw=1502&q=greenhouse+gas+effect+windows&simid=608036104486979996&selectedIndex=21&ajaxhist=0
How much heat can escape that way? Is it like a BIG hole in the roof of a real green house that lets the heat out?
10
Something has triggered “moderation”. I am not sure what?
00
Peter, I can’t quantify the size of the hole; but it is a hole. The hole is just one more level of complexity in an extremely complex problem. See my comment 1.3.2.1.3.
20
By gum, Corey, I wouldn’t want to get into an argument with you! 🙂 I enjoyed the read at the site you linked to.
With regard to the flat-earth, argument you blokes are torturing yourselves with all kinds of theories, science, calculations and etc., to disprove the existence of a flat earth, probably for the sheer joy of the intellectual exercise.
My explanation is quite simple; take a sextant, observe the altitude of a known heavenly body, observe the exact time from your chronometer, apply these observations to formulae known in spherical trigonometry and Bingo! you will find your geographical position on the surface of the globe. Having done this a number of times and eventually found myself at a desired destination, I’m now quite convinced that the earth is not flat, and distinctly resembles a ball-like object, although a tad larger.
50
Well then, Dave, your spherical trigonometry argument makes sense and I capitulate. The earth is a sphere, sort of anyway…a little bit of a spare tire at the equator but maybe we can put it on a diet of renewable energy and get it down to a sphere.
I do wonder though if some of use up here are not the ones standing on our heads and in danger of falling off, etc.
The people I mean would be the elected officials, no matter where, who cling to the climate change-renewable energy ideas in spite of no evidence to support them and in spite of good arguments and sound evidence from people who know power generation and distribution that says they are wrong.
But when has being right been a prerequisite for public office? Probably never.
I’m not sure which heavenly body you mean. You didn’t give her name. 😉
20
It pleases me that you “enjoyed the read at the site I linked to.” As of 23 July 2018, 3:30 Monday afternoon California time, my exchange with Fallacy Man is still ongoing. Although the exchange has been fun for me, it has also been frustrating. I’m sure Fallacy Man is also frustrated. I can stand the frustration if he can.
10
To: Reed Coray @ #1
Fallacy Man is “trapped” in fallacies of his own and others making. CO2 does not trap heat. It does absorb a small amount of IR at some wavelengths but this is not necessarily translated into “heat.” (That is where Arrhenius and Tyndall went wrong: they assumed the absorption of IR raised temperature.)
He has “drunk liberally of the Kool Aid” and hides behind anonymity. I can understand why because so do I. However, I don’t think he is worth debating with: he is right. He seems to be a disciple of Skeptical Science, Rahmstorf, Lewandowsky, Mann, et al. The language of his argument reads familiarly: at one stage I considered the proposition/possibility of this being an avatar of John Cook (who has claimed to write as Lubos Motl, not being the real Lubos Motl of The Reference Frame) but maybe not. He quotes papers which have been severely criticised/debunked like Shakun et al by the likes of Shaviv and others, a paper which received a FAIL grade for attempting to fly in the face of established physics.
Then I remembered the article in National Geographic (March 2015) The Age of Disbelief (which was advertised as The War on Science on the front cover) by Joel Achenbach. It lumped together The Moon Landing as a Hoax, Evolution (arguments against it, including Intelligent Design), Vaccinations, Climate Change Denial, GM Food and The Flat Earth. (I think I have the lot.)
The polemic at The Logic of Science reads so similarly. Pity neither author (if they are different) understands physics. Both pieces are just an excuse to categorize any and every critique of CAGW aka CC as Denial and part and parcel of other pseudoscientific beliefs. It’s just another Propaganda Reinforcement web site.
I have Cherry Picked two of his claims as examples. Actually I just selected them at random. I read his list of myths. Most of them are mythical only to him.
Example 1: According to FM, the Antarctic is losing ice through melting ice shelves. Hang on a minim: those “ice shelves” are the terminations of glaciers, the off-shore, in the ocean terminations. They form such a minute part of the Antarctic ice sheets, they are trivial losses. He calls Antarctica gaining mass a myth.
Example 2: According to FM, Polar Bears are not increasing—that’s another myth—but decreasing because of Arctic Ice loss limiting or destroying their hunting and breeding grounds and so on ad infinitum. He doesn’t recognize the expertise of Dr Susan Crockford, but relies on members of a clique (supported by Mickey Mann and Lewandowsky) who shot themselves in both feet with a recent attack on Dr. Crockford. Lewandowsky appears to be a favourite of his and features in his list of reading, several times. That was what made me think of Crooked Cookie.
Trying to debate him would be a waste of time. He’s a Save the World from the War on Science warrior. Pity he actually seems to not know enough real science. To him, the models are accurate. Oh dear. How sad, Too bad. Never mind. It’s best to make a note of him, keep a copy of his web site content appropriately dated so his exact words can be quoted, (espec. back to him), and wait for Nature to disprove him. It’s going to be very interesting over the next three years, the next five years and the next decade.
If you do want to debate/discuss with him, here are a couple of starters for you:
The first is a paper about the response of atmospheric gases, which includes CO2, to solar insolation can be found here . It involved a replicable physical experiment. The author is an expert in measurement sensors.
The other paper which describes the source of atmospheric warming is the one by Nikolov and Zeller describing how the surface temperature is driven by the interchange of potential and kinetic energy among gases in a gravity well.
So it needs only three things: an atmosphere, gravity and solar insolation.
Good luck.
[Everyone, This was found in moderation. I think its size is the only reason. Shorter is preferred over longer in general. Thanks.] AZ
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I know it was “found” in moderation. 🙂
Thank you AZ.
I’ve made longer posts and not had to go “stand in the corner” before so I figured I had transgressed by the ad hom of “Cookie Boy” (If this goes into moderation too, I’ll be more sure :-). )
It also has four links and I suspected that could be a cause but Pat gets away with it … with only an occasional “stand in the corner” …
10
I always thought I trapped heat with my blankets in my bed.
I also thought my roof trapped heat within my house.
What do you mean by your claim that heat can’t be trapped?
10
Your body is a heat source. On a cold night when you lie in your bed without any blankets, a part of your body is in direct contact with cold air and the heat generated by your body can relatively easily be transported away from your body. When you put blankets over your body, you alter (warm) the temperature of the matter in direct contact with your body. I.e., some of the heat your body generates is transferred to and “temporarily” resides in the blankets. If the heat was “trapped” in the blankets, the heat would remain in the blankets forever. That being the case, every night when you went to bed the blankets would be just as warm as when you left them that morning. Such is not the case, every time you go to bed your blankets are as cool as the surrounding cold air and you body has to re-heat the blankets.
As yarpos noted above (see comment 1.3.1) whether or not it is proper to say your blankets “trap” heat devolves into a definition of the word “trap.” My take on that definition (see comment 1.3.2 above) is that the heat in the blankets is not “trapped.” From a physics perspective, when two bodies are in thermal contact, heat always moves from the higher temperature body to the lower temperature body no matter what insulating material (blankets, CO2, a vacuum, etc.) you place between the objects. Insulating material can alter the rate of heat transer, but it cannot stop the heat transfer. As such, no material can “trap” heat in the higher temperature body. The only way to stop the heat transfer is to bring the two objects to the same temperature.
10
In effect, he creates a greenhouse effect, in miniature.
00
Testing:
10
Times:
50
Ahead
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I was wondering if the “image” button worked. It doesn’t. But here’s the funny:
https://i0.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2018/07/Liberal-sore-loser.jpeg?resize=600%2C426
90
Ha, ha!
30
Yes I often wonder why leftists become leftists….is it bad potty training, were they raised by leftists, have they a DNA-designed chip on their shoulder?
It would be interesting to find out….I find it hard to believe you can be a leftists at uni when its all trendy and you need an excuse to join a student club and drink beer, but you do grow up eventually and most people become conservative when they have a family.
10
“If you’re not a socialist before you are 25 there is something wrong with your heart.
If you are a socialist after you turn 25 then there is something wrong with your head”.
I think the problem is that the average recruit doesn’t have any curiosity about what they have signed up to. In my case I lasted 3 weeks because I decided to read up on the history of the subject, not the endless waffle about what X & Y were debating at the current time.
The strongest influence was a book about socialist settlements, and how they went. Australia figured prominently because there was a feeling in the 1880 & 1890s that a new land could be the place for a new beginning. Quite a number of towns along the Murray river started as socialist camps. I read of a group starting off up-stream from Morgan, who split within 18 months. The more committed ones moved up-stream with some new recruits to a new “ideal” spot, which broke up fairly quickly. The most dedicated believers moved up-stream again and rapidly fell apart also. At that point I decided that if the most dedicated out of a group of dedicated believers couldn’t make the thing work, then it wouldn’t work with ordinary humans.
See also Mary Gilmore — In 1893, Gilmore and 200 others followed Lane to Paraguay, where they formed the New Australia Colony. She started a family there, but the colony did not live up to expectations and they returned to Australia in 1902.
30
The past week has been difficult.
Being made more aware of the failure of “Democracy” to deliver the bare minimum of guidance, oversight and civil control has left me feeling a bit down.
The penchant for Miss Bish and Lord Fauntleroi to subjugate our country to the Governance and Control of unelected overlords in New York and Brussels leaves me cold.
The Chronic manipulation of taxes, surcharges, road tolls, CO2 taxes, “future contingency” contributions and a hundred and one other Mickey Mouse rules needed to build and maintain a functional, inclusive, non sexist, holistic, well educated, environmentally aware, self determining Society,
Has finally got me Down.
We don’t have a Democracy simply because we can’t see where all the Money is going any more.
We, the people, seem to have lost control of our society.
KK
232
The people have never been in control of any country. It’s all smoke and mirrors. There was only ever one Democracy throughout all of history, and that is the early Roman form, where people from society were given the right of leadership for 12 months.
The modern Democracy is just a slavery system. Keep the populous calm and tax them as much as you can get away with.
In the bible, the 11 Jewish tribes had to give 10% of their earning to the church, and by extension the 12’th tribe. We in Australia get taxed at 40%. 30% comes out of our wages before we even get it, the other 10% comes out when we buy something.
That is an insane level of tax.
I don’t know much about the histories of governments around the world, but I don’t believe governments have ever been benign. I’ve got a DVD of the Seven Industrial Wonders of the Wold. I was so shocked at the utter corruption involved with the great western railway project. Even the London Bridge was rife with corruption. And the manager who built the Hoover Dam was an absolute bastard. So history demonstrates that corruption was perhaps worse in those times than today.
142
Insanity is when people vote for one of two major parties who believe in the same global warming nonsense and compete with or sorts of other polices to destroy our economy via various means.
Yes there have been benign “governments” in the past. China for example had a couple of good dynasties but they were soon overthrown by evil dictators. Greece, the origin of democracy had a good from of government until money and power hungry men decided to change things to their advantage. Same with Roman Empire. The US started with with good intended men after the war if independence but again it didn’t last long. It’s a very common trait of mankind. We build, we conquer then we destroy, then we re-build, etc. etc, The cycle keeps repeating over and over, and will continue to do so until one of two things happens. One, we as a species destroy ourselves or two something external comes along to break the cycle.
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Oh it’s much more than 40%, add rates, rego, fuel excise, dog registration, car licences, licences to work (eg electrical /taxi licenses) luxury taxes, alcohol/tobacco taxes, land tax, metering charges, ambulance, fire levy, road tolls gambling taxes, transaction taxes, stamp duty, payroll tax, worksafe. Pensioners pay at least 80% of their pensions straight back to the government in a stupid money-go-round.
80
We do have a democracy, which is defined as a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. The problem is most don’t use it appropriately. After all we are free to vote for and elect the representatives we prefer. Ideally a better system is not a democracy but a republic headed by benevolent leader acting almost like a dictator but with certain checks, balances and restraints. Of course in reality that would never works since such a leader even if possible would eventually be replaced by a bad one and the whole things comes tumbling down. If you believe the public should have more control over what is legislated then that’s a recipe for chaos in the long run. The public is clearly made up of people with vastly different and often contradictory ideals and world-views. Trying to get a consensus on most things would be impossible. In some ways the best system of government is actually what we have now if only the voters used their brains to make the right choice when electing their representatives. The quality of government in our democracy is hugely dependent on the voters and no one else, and therein lies the real problem.
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We need to make a break with the Westminster System and appropriate a different form of government.
‘Most western countries have representative systems. Switzerland is a rare example of a country with instruments of direct democracy (at the levels of the municipalities, cantons, and federal state). Citizens have more power than in a representative democracy.’ wiki
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The Swiss seem to be one of the richest countries and also seem to be reasonably immune to global financial collapses. Perhaps they do have a good system of government.
20
Here in Australia we actually have what is called a “representative democracy”.
We elect representatives who then vote in our parliament supposedly as representatives of the voters who elected them.
Doesn’t work that way of course with the rise of the party system and allegiance to the party’s policys coming before allegiance to those who elected them.
A true Democracy allows every eligible , note the eligible, citizen in the society to vote at the governing assembly.
But the reality is that there ain’t no such animal of any consequence on planet Earth as a “True democracy”
Some close with the universal voting procedures in some small Swiss cantons.
The oldest still functioning represetative Democracy is the Iceelandic parliament , the Althingi which came into existence in 930AD .
It has had one break of some 45 years from 1800 to 1844 when it resumed as Iceland’s parliament.
Eligibility to vote for a representative to parliament on your behalf varies greatly over time and across nations with the obvious slaves a and criminals not eligible to vote and until the early 20th century women and those of a low non landholding status were not eligible to vote in most parliamentary elections around the world.
Women still aren’t allowed to vote in many less developed nations .
“International Woman Suffrage Timeline
51
You say a true democracy is one where every eligible citizen has a vote at the governing assembly. Such a system is also part of the definition of a democracy, usually termed “government by the majority of the people”. However, even the Swiss system fails to meet that level of “people’s democracy” or “direct democracy”. That’s because it’s a “direct democracy” only some of the time. No nation on earth has a “direct democratic” style of government all the time. At other times Switzerland is a representative democracy. Most laws are made and decided by parliament and not by the people. One reason is because a nation that would follow a “direct democracy” style of government all the time would be chaotic and fail miserably due to increasing lack of interest by the public as they become more and more apathetic or tired of it leaving it to only a small proportion of the public to control what happens, who more likely than not be those who have themselves and not the nation’s interest in mind. The idiom “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink it” come to mind. It would also still have the problem of people being gullible and conned into believing something, such as CAGW, due to a propaganda campaign by either the government or special interest groups. There is no escape from it. No man-made system of government is perfect – not even close, for one reason alone – people. It’s really up to the people to turn their brains on, do their own research and use their critical thinking abilities to make the right decision. If most people did do all that from the start our current style of democracy would be adequate to allow us to pick the right representatives and we would not be in the mess we are in with respect to the renewables mess. In reality not many do that and so we end up where we are.
10
I fear for the US. Just when you think TDS could get no worse, it does.
40
It has the potential to lead to a civil war and hence the loss of innocent lives. I sincerely hope it doesn’t for that reason alone. It might be better if Americans were as apathetic as us Australians, let the left take over, lead the US to an economic collapse and then teach people the hard way that left socialism is destructive in so many ways (again). Then again we all know how bad things can get under a socialist state. Stalin murdered millions of his own people, far more that what another infamous and evil dictator did in Germany. So perhaps a civil war would result in far less causalities. No one really knows. All we know for sure is if the left persist in perpetrating so much hatred it will end in some kind of disaster for all sides. That you can bet your house on, if you still have it by the time the left are in complete control.
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I do think the US was facing, is still facing, a bigger threat than simply having a socialist government which, as you suggest is survivable. They faced a coup that even an armed populace could not prevent if the swamp got their hand puppet elected. If the stories of FEMA camps and FEMA having billions of rounds are true Charlton Heston may indeed have his gun pried from his cold dead hand. [OK he has gone already]
They now have a fighting chance.
20
Survivable? Look what happened to the world economy when we just let our home mortgages get a little out of hand. Oz didn’t feel that one because you weren’t swimming in debt, but you’ve fixed that little problem in the intervening years. Let the US do a Venezuela and see if anything recognizable survives.
30
Survivable? Look what happened to the world economy when we just let our home mortgages get a little out of hand. Oz didn’t feel that one because you weren’t swimming in debt, but you’ve fixed that little problem in the intervening years. Let the US do a Venezuela and see if anything recognizable survives.
10
‘That you can bet your house on, if you still have it by the time the left are in complete control.’
Hmmm …. the new agrarian socialists believe in private property.
11
Pol Pot was an agrarian socialist – he believed in emptying the cities….and got the killing fields.
No socialism is good…it only leads to communism.
Communism is bad, ergo…
20
It is true that no socialism is good, including the other extreme kind – national socialism. It will be worrying to see the US moves towards that end while the Democrats move to the extreme left. Such a pendulum swing to the extreme right would be as fatal as the Democrats returning to power. We in Australia though won’t have to worry about that happening here. If anything we are more likely to end up being a province of China and break ties with the US if they went far right, especially since there is a much stronger hatred of national socialism here than there is of communism.
10
‘If anything we are more likely to end up being a province of China and break ties with the US’
The Alliance is on its last legs, we have no enemies except our biggest trading partner, which happens to be socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Bill and Penny will probably sign up to the Belt and Road, do you think this would be a mistake?
10
Absolutely it will be a mistake in the long run. Signing up with the “devil” is never a good thing.
00
‘Signing up with the “devil”
Better the devil you know, they are our biggest trading partner, what could possibly go wrong?
01
Pol Pot was not an agrarian socialist, which first emerged in England and went by the name of ‘Diggers”. Marx later appropriated the idea and in his name the dictatorship of the proletariat produced a cold war.
That was last century, everything has now changed.
‘…by launching the trade war, the United States could also be reacting to China’s model of developmental state, which many in the United States see as a threat to the liberal market system. While the Chinese economy is market-driven in numerous ways, many critical components of China’s legacy of planned economy have intentionally been maintained.
‘With this model of developmental state, the Chinese government bolsters lots of industries, including high-tech ones, with subsidies and other types of support. This is widely regarded as a distortion to the market that keeps foreign competitors at a permanent and unfair disadvantage. The trade war, therefore, can be interpreted as an attack on China’s development model.’
The Diplomat
00
Keith you make several good points which could make one despondent about our democracy.
But we have to look at the good side of life. I find that sometimes a few days without the latest news can rejuvenate ones enthusiasm.
Reg a rds GeoffW
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Thanks Geoff
No big dramas, I guess it’s just that here at the later part of my life it would have been good to see something positive in the prospects for the future.
All you can do as an individual is do what you can and keep good company around you.
Keith
40
I’ve been going through my own private hell the last 6 months. I’m trying desperately to believe it’ll all turn out ok. You’re words are a timely reminder. Thanks KK.
Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle
Don’t grumble, give a whistle
And this’ll help things turn out for the best
And always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the light side of life
90
I’m sorry to hear that you’re having a bad time of it, Greg. Have been on the receiving end of it at this end, too.
My father always used to say, “As the old Irish terrier said to her pup, ‘Through all life’s adversities, keep your tail up!'”.
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Yes, Life of Brian…love it….
I think we’re in for a rough ride, however one benefit of having been through a bad patch is you have a tendency to see things really as they are. Forwarned is forearmed, IMHO….better to be realistic and not be surprised when the (artificial) puppies dogs and rainbows evaporate…
00
Kinky Keith and Greg Cavanagh:
I had to make a trip over the Black Spur to the dentist to have a broken tooth repaired this afternoon. I don’t normally play the radio or CDs in the car but today I listened to Abba and I thought about you both and others having rough times. ‘I had a dream’ might cheer you up and it brought back past happy times; played it at least three times! It’s my favourite Abba track…I hope you like it too. I take heart when I meet good, decent people and try to let those balance out all the evil and misery that also exists.
21
Annie,
it’s an odd thing about ABBA.
My own journey with music began in 1963, so I was brought up with all those English bands, and on a daily basis, you just didn’t know where to turn.
So, ABBA was a bit after I came in, and so my generation didn’t really look much at ABBA.
However, as time passed, I came to a wider appreciation of ALL music, and I even came to an appreciation of ABBA as part of that.
One of my favourites from this amazing band is the one at the following link, one of my own Music Posts.
Sunday Music – Move On
There is just so much good music out there, and from every era, and no matter how old I get, there will always be something new I like, or even find from the past
Tony.
20
Sorry Annie, wrong link. Should have proof read it first eh!
Sunday Music – Move On
Tony.
20
Thanks Tony. Great track…didn’t know that one. I’m surprised at myself, enjoying the always well-liked by me tracks, but now finding some of them quite moving in a way I haven’t previously.
01
My sisters in the 80s played thier multiple ABBA records to death. One of the problems if being the only one in a musical family who wasnt into music is that after a while it gits on yer nervs…
Fumnily enough though, I have a good sense of musical rhythm and can tell if an engine is “off” by the sound/harmonics, and tel you if someone is singing flat…
I have a great appreciaton of the cleverness of Shakespeare, and once saw Omlette in London at the Drury Lane whereby they had no props at all on stage and it went for 2 hours, we loved it…
10
Thanks Annie, FijiDave and Original. I played the Abba song just because you said I should. It’s true, the more you play it, the more it means.
I was born in 66, so when Abba hit the scene I was in my early teens. The thing I do remember of Abba, was at one point, they had 9 of the top 10 songs on the radio.
The vocal synchronization was better than anything else out there, and their songs were so great they just dominated the music market.
I’m currently loving Devin Townsend. His music is just so superb these days. And catching up with one of my other old favorites; Gary Numan.
It’s good just to chat and know that someone out their understands. 🙂
30
I guess I’m the optimist around here when it comes to the future.
We along with the rest of the West are Democracies of one or more polically based constructs.
Democracy’s great advantage is its ability to adapt to change, to fight out policy conflicts without entering into armed and physical confrontations .
Democracies have a constant churn of those who lust for power or who just sorta fall into or out of power which creates constant chage and variation.
Democracies have an underlying bureacratic, legslative and legal base which all participants in a Democracy know that if those limitations to behavior by anybody or everybody within that Democracy will mean the failure of that democracy and the destruction of the abilities and rights of the citizens of that democracy to have a say and an input into the running of their nation and its Governing democratic structure.
Democracies appear in a constant state of crisis as the supporters of different ways and means of achieving goals and and objectives dispute and argue and conflict over the ways and means of achieving those objectives or alternative objectives that others believe are more important.
And because of that never ending conflict and interaction and the ever shifting political forces through partnerships and coalitions , all of them want as much backing from the voters as they can acquire so all parties in a genuine Democracy try to ensure that their supporters are not hobbled or shut down or bullied out of the political discussion.
And so we have supposedly a relative but not total “Freedom of Speech” in a genuine Democracy.
Because of the churn of ideas, policies, people, circumstances and etc, Democracies are for the most part, with some retro periods, always advancing in one way or another through economics, standards of living, technological advances and etc.
—————-
So to join the climate prediction sooth sayers but with a political bent I will make the following prediction re China.
As Xi has now set himself up as the current Emperor of China for the foreseeable future, I would suggest that within a decade the Chinese economy will begin to stagnate and possibly even begin to go backwards.
Without that constant churn of ideas and policies and abilities and turn over of political personnel and the ability to correct mistakes regardless of the imprtance of the persons whose baby such a policy may have been, and with the same old tired group of faces after decade of running China , and the same tired old inflexible policies emanating from the long time and fixed in time Chinese leadership, China will become stagnant economically and politically on an international scale and then a real threat to mankind.
Why a threat?
Looking at history; whenever an Emperor or single center of power begins to feel real pressure from his / her citizens who desire change and improvements in their lives and begins tomfeelsuch domesticly driven pressure is seriously felt by any dictator, their first response is to pick a serious argument with a neigbouring country or group as a way of taking pressure off themselves and uniting the country under their leadership in the pursuance of destroying a politically constructed and supposed threat to the nation .
Xi and his supplicants in his circle is already becoming aggressive and after a decade or so with little likely in the way of new policies , new economics, plus reinforcing the Chinese military machine as his major supporting system, there is that military machine there which can be used politically against a neighbouring country as an excuse and a reason to take the pressure and focus of the by then growing domestic disillusionment with his leadership and transfer it to hatred of the enemy which must then be destroyed.
Hence, a stagnating China and a military adventurism to take the domestic disillusuionment off of the failure of Xi’s imperial abitions to continue the growth economically and socially within the Chinese world and its system of governance beginning very roughly a decade into the future.
For a classical example of my claim and it is only one example out of hundreds down through history, try reading up on the Argentinian triumvirate of the three military leaders, their failures to advance the well being of the a Argentinian nation and the resulting desire by the military triumvirate to distract the Argentinians people from their domestic failures by invading the Falkland Islands and thereby picking a full scale fight with the British who won the battles and the war leading to the destruction of the military triumvirate both politically and in the end individually as they and their military supporters were eliminated from Argentinian public life forever.
40
all that off the top of your head? take long to research?
13
About 60 years of thinking and reading and watching as history was made and passed by and guessing and watching human psychology and the way we humans interact and conflict and the ways in which leadership acts in all sorts of situations.
Yeah, that post whether you agree or disagree was all off the top of my head over the last hour or so.
And if it makes you think, not always a guaranteed proposition of course , then I have achieved something.
20
but what about your ability to know the future, how did you acquire that?
and 60 years also gives you the right to present your acquired facts without evidence
wow really?
Maybe let go of the absolutist bravado as it actually boosts your “arguments” rather than making them look like some olf guy making stuff up.
22
.
“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
George Santayana
—————-
Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
Confucius
———————–
Study history, study history. In history lies all the secrets of statecraft.
Winston Churchill
20
Oh Gee Aye; it’s an open thread. Relax, enjoy the company for a change.
It’s ROM’s experience and opinion, treat it as such.
21
Problem is, Gee Aye, is its a well trod path and a reasonably expected outcome, when one considers history. Govts the world over love distractions when life politically at home is bad.
10
‘Xi and his supplicants in his circle is already becoming aggressive ….’
A bit of respect, please. China is a benevolent dictatorship and they aren’t being aggressive.
Have you heard of the Belt and Road? They intend pulling up the downtrodden masses, its in the manifesto.
10
I do wonder about their newly formed islands in the South China Sea?
21
Storm in a teacup.
00
‘A senior US congressman has called on Australia to conduct its own freedom-of-navigation operation against China.’ Oz
The Alliance leader wants us to get into a fight with our biggest trading partner, become a real deputy sheriff and double our arms purchase from their military industrial complex.
00
Indeed the lure of some isolated part of this continent,away from the useless “information” flogged at me and those cretins that represent us. Soon to be a failed state.
51
Chance discovery of ancient structure.
https://www.sciencealert.com/never-before-seen-ancient-henge-appears-once-in-a-lifetime-discovery-ireland-heatwave-archaeology/
71
Here is another video of the discovery of many ancient structures due to the heatwave in the UK.
https://youtu.be/C1EvSEZo1N0
30
I remember …was it so long ago, when you could watch
good ol’ Philand Time Team on TV?
30
Most interesting gordo will have a good look later. .
Hope nobody’s having us on like the ‘crop circles’
Regards GeoffW
30
Cropmarks have been used for a while by archaeologists. It’s not just drought, also boggy conditions, frosts and certain crops or times of season have favoured detection not just of Roman roads but of some seriously prehistoric stuff. Frost marks were first investigated for archaeology in Britain in the 1700s, so not a new thing. Drought in N Italy a few years back enabled detection of a Roman city near Venice. Now we have drones!
50
Arctic sea ice rebounds, making a mockery of predictions that it would be ice free.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Arctic-ice-volume-Kirye-2018-July-1.png
82
It looks like Californiastan is trying to outdo Australiastan in the sheer stupidity of “environmental” laws.
https://thefreethoughtproject.com/city-makes-plastic-straws-from-restaurants-illegal-violators-will-face-jail-and-1000-fine/
Of course, there are moves afoot in Australia to do the same thing. The anti-straw lobby (yes there is such a thing) even has a web site where they state things such as “Plastic straws are an unnecessary convenience with a big impact.”. These ridiculous claims are reminiscent of the anti-cheap-electricity lobby. Because, you know, cheap electricity is an “unnecessary convience”.
QUOTE
///Santa Barbara, CA – Illustrating the growing American police state, the city of Santa Barbara has passed a law that prohibits bars, restaurants, and other food service businesses from distributing plastic straws to their patrons under penalty of jail time and hefty fines.
The Santa Barbara City Council on Tuesday unanimously passed what is likely the most punitive ban on plastic straws in the country—but restaurants will still be able to legally give out straws to customers that request them.///
71
I forgot to include the website for the Australian anti-straw lobby.
41
Thanks for telling us that.
21
Was there a straw poll conducted?
81
It’s a classic Strawman argument, also the straw industry will go down the tube……..I know it sucks…….. 🙁
91
I was thinking this really is the last straw…..
I guess they could go back to the old waxed paper ones….
The green lobby – removing our joys and simple pleasures bit by bit, freedom by freedom…
On a more positive note, if the Leftists try an actual coup against Trump as it would appear they are basically trying to get going right now, I suspect the Americans will put down such an uprising very quickly, mostly via the armed citizenry.
I abhor violence, I think the Leftists, once soundly defeated, will go back under their rocks and stay there. People have let the Left become too belligerent and havent checked them hard enough early enough. Now we have a well organized army of moral-free adult delinquents hell bent on causing harm.
41
http://www.laststraw.com.au/
21
Starbucks jumped onto the “Ban Plastic Straws” bandwagon by announcing that it is replacing the straw/lib combination with a lid that can be used to sip your drink without a straw. The only problem is that the new lid uses more plastic than the old lid/straw combination did.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-14/starbucks-bans-plastic-straws-winds-using-more-plastic
71
UN Agenda 30 – Sustainability I assume?
Local governments implementing with state governments approval in Australia.
41
Straws are obviously a great menace to society. What little kid didn’t tear off one end of the wrapper and then blow it like an unguided missile at the kid (or parent) across from him. There must have been at least one whole eye put out that way over all the years we allowed straws to be distributed to patrons in restaurants.
Then think of the danger of all those sugar packets. When you shake one to pack down the contents away from the end you’re going to tear open you might break a finger or cause yourself some other injury. And it’s the government’s responsibility to protect you from yourself.
I say, more laws, not less. Make it illegal to even go to a restaurant because you might have a wreck on the way there, or worse, on the way home and be cited for drunk driving as well as have your nose busted by the air bag.
Good for Santa Barbara. I always knew they’d finally get it right and think with all their money instead of their brains. 🙁
Saving the world from itself one city at a time…only in Califusion-ia.
61
If you’ve ever taken a 3 year old out for food, you would know that straws are a necessity.
These idiots are assuming adults or similar for drinks, the very young really benefit from straws. I guess we could invent a bamboo straw?
22
I think that if such great lawmaking ever happens here or statewide I’ll just take my own straw to the restaurant with me and dare them to do anything about it. If everyone could get together and do that just one day it would send a message the elites couldn’t ignore.
61
Not only small children but also old and disabled people often need straws.
52
Personally I need a bib and a mop rather than a straw, but that’s just me I guess. Just imagine how I’ll be when I’m old and disabled.
50
I never thought the humble drinking straw could be so much fun. And I never in this world wold have thought it to be so controversial. Is there not at least one of these Santa Barbara lawmakers who has enjoyed a root beer float? I’ve never been served one that I would try to drink without a straw. That would be getting ice cream all over my face if not also down my shirt and right into my lap? They come with a straw and a long handled spoon for a reason.
But I’ll outfox them. We make rootbeer floats here at home and we can still buy straws at the store. So every time I sit back and relax with my root beer float and my straw I’ll be laughing at the City of Santa Barbara. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 Ha ha ha and ha!
80
And do they not have at least one problem to work on that’s higher priority than straws? Perhaps the nearby hills that are still tinder dry and could come down on them in a wall of flame if there’s another Santa Ana Wind condition.
This boils down to more “me too” ism, virtue signaling at its worst. Sacramento has had such a bill presented in the legislature so Santa Barbara city council members must beat Sacramento to the punch. Not only that, they must have an even stronger prohibition. 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 I would make it longer but you get the idea. I’m heaping my contempt on such people.
41
.
With the amount of derision around over the banning of the humble drinking straw, it could become “the straw that broke the [ politiical ] camel’s back”!
————-
We have artists
We have engineers.
We have accountants.
We have lawyers.
We have doctors
And we have another few hundred ways of making a living.
But one thing is sure.
An engineer may not be a very good artist or lawyer or doctor or any good at any number of other ways of making a living.
Ditto for all those other ways of making a living and the practioners of those ways usual inability to operate in an efficient and constructive manner in most of those alternative means of making a living.
.
And then we have politicians who often try to give the impression they are the equivalent of “Masters of the Universe” in their supposed ability to master every possible aspect of politics and every other aspect of a complex society.
Whereas in actual real time living, those same erstwhile politicians barely know how to turn on a tap on to get water and which way to turn it off to stop the water flowing.
But they might be very good indeed at manipulating people and selling a message and know precisely where to sink the knife in the back to get the maximum of the desired results.
But when the reality and the real world outside of politics strikes they are at a complete loss.
But being politiciansthey will use all of their political skills to minimise their lack of ability to function in the real world outside of politics.
And we the public, will never be much wiser about their complete lack of any practicality or understanding of the forces and pressures that exist in the wide world outside of politics.
So when the politicking is over and the voters have had their say and the decisions have to be made on the running of the country and the fullfilling of their voters. desires , they fail the test because they simply are not mentally and psychologically equipped to operate in a real world situation and not in a vaporous world of ever shifting politics to which they are adapted and which they swim and swansong quite happily in.
They fail often rather miserably and sometimes spectacularly when it comes making decisions that demands and requires firm outcomes to keep society or the relevant part of society functioning adequately.
Maybe we need a law that requires all pursuant politicians to have at least five years working , not in union offices or anywhere else political , but in private business so that they at least have some understanding of what the real world outside of the artificial hall of mirrors and distorted illusions that is politics before they are ever allowed to stand for election to a parliament.
31
The sad part is, the straw is so trivial. Why are they so upset about something so trivial?
I would have thought packaging would be a far easier target. When I buy something all I get is a massive load of box, plastic and Styrofoam. And inside all that is this little device that I wanted. It’s like the smaller the object, the bigger the packaging.
21
ROM,
Change but a few words and you have just written the homily for the humble CO2 molecule when it’s finally put in the ground never to be seen again.
I still hope for that camel to stumble and fall, fall hard.
00
Why are some people and sections of the media so determined to blame Tony Abbott for signing and ratifying the Paris Agreement?
My research revealed that it was signed in New York at UN HQ in April 2016 and ratified there in November 2016. Tony Abbott ceased being PM during September 2015. The Paris Conference was held from late November into December 2015.
Here is an extract from a recent address (Bob Carter Memorial) Tony Abbott MP gave;
“”Now one of the most important laws of politics is: beware the unintended consequences of what seems-like-a-good-idea-at-the-time.
I’m not sure that the Howard government fully anticipated where the renewable energy target would lead when it first made the decision to impose one.
I certainly didn’t anticipate, as prime minister, how the aspirational targets we agreed to at Paris (Note: Turnbull Government) would, in different hands, become binding commitments.
I didn’t anticipate how agreeing to emissions that were 26 per cent lower in 2030 than in 2005 would subsequently become a linear progression of roughly equal cuts every year over the next decade.
But now that we are more alive to all the consequences of combining energy policy with emissions policy – and now that we do understand that this will define our economy for decades to come – there is no excuse for getting it wrong again.”.
Very cleary “agreed to at Paris”.
Signed and ratified the following year.
142
You’re quite right, David.
And the actual agreement happened at the COP21 meeting on 12 Dec, 2015, 3 months after Abbott was relieved of his PMship.
‘At COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC reached a landmark agreement to combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a sustainable low carbon future. The Paris Agreement builds upon the Convention and ……’.
50
Two charts – does the correlation indicate a connection?
From your ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-18/electricity-price-rises-chart-of-the-day/9985300
From your government:
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Wind_Turbines/Wind_Turbines/Final%20Report/~/media/Committees/wind_ctte/Final_Report/c07_5.jpg
When you consider that the RET target was dramatically increased by Rudd in 2009, it appears he has escaped any criticism of the current mess that has supercharged electricity prices.
There appears to be some inconsistency in poling. This week we are told 48% of Australians believe we should pull out of Paris CO2 targets but last year we were told 64% would like more investment in “renewables”. The number has changed quite dramatically. Is that a function of the poling questions and method or has the opinion changed so much in just a year?
61
I read recently that Labor established a 28 per cent RET that really kick started the “transition” but later when the Abbott Government was in office September 2013 to September 2015 they were able to obtain Senate support for RET to be lowered to 23 per cent where it remains today.
The plan had been to abolish the RET and subsidies.
32
Saw this chart some time ago in The Oz.
11
Rudd not only increased subsidies .
“…..the Rudd government in 2010 extended the phasing out of the renewable subsidies for existing operators from 2020 to 2030……….The 10-year extension beyond the contracted 2020 phase-out under the Howard government is estimated to cost households and businesses up to an extra $7.5bn…”
from The Australian Oct 2017
40
a complete flop:
21 Jul: ClimateDepot: Marc Morano: Gore Effect Strikes again: DC Youth ‘global warming’ march met by very cool summer temperatures
http://www.climatedepot.com/2018/07/21/gore-effect-strikes-again-dc-youth-climate-march-met-by-very-cool-summer-temperatures/
ABC calls it a “crowd”! take a look 1min-plus video:
22 Jul: VIDEO: ABC7 WashingtonDC (WJLA): Youth Climate March held on National Mall
http://wjla.com/news/local/youth-climate-march-held-national-mall
unbearable to watch, but shows the tiny number marching:
22 Jul: Youtube: 8:15 LIVE! DC Climate Protest with Xiuhtezcatl of Earth Guardians – Zero Hour
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onNCXvzvYAM
PR from NYT:
Meet the Teenagers Leading a Climate Change Movement
New York Times-8 hours ago
The teenagers kicked off their campaign with a protest on Saturday at the National … across the globe, they say time is running out to address climate change.
41
Do we know the real reasons why those teenagers, maybe as many as half of them that were there, attended the march.
A commentor on WUWT some months ago said he and no doubt others always attended those “mass” student gatherings regardless of the cause they were promoting as he always had a very good chance of getting to know a few more of the females of the species with the potential and appropriate side benefits arising therefrom.
Its a damn long time ago that I was a teenager but I can still appreciate and approve his logic!
81
Smart boys go protests and learn horse riding
20
Greenhouse gases are warming the world—but chilling Antarctica …
Unmasking the negative greenhouse effect over the Antarctic Plateau
A paradoxical negative greenhouse effect has been found over the Antarctic Plateau, indicating that greenhouse gases enhance energy loss to space.
Using 13 years of NASA satellite observations, we verify the existence of the negative greenhouse effect and find that the magnitude and sign of the effect varies seasonally and spectrally.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0031-y
Who remembers when “Icy places first feel the effects of global warming” …
https://news.mongabay.com/2007/04/icy-places-first-feel-the-effects-of-global-warming/
70
Oh, so “greenhouse gases” are responsible for both warming AND cooling? Talk about warmists having it both ways…
101
Sure they are. Why do you think the cause was changed from global warming to climate change? The warmists have it nicely sewed up both ways and you can’t make any criticism if it’s too hot or if ti’s too cold.
61
David Maddison said:
Isn’t it just amazing what you can do with Temperature Inversions?
It’s the same as a buck each way at the horse races, or the old gambling saying: “Heads I win, tails you lose.”
10
Thanks Mark. Very interesting paper.
20
So Jo; is it cause, or is it correlation?
00
“negative greenhouse effect”. As world temperature drops, this new idea will be critical. No matter what happens, fossil fuels are to blame.
90
Back sliding apologists clutch at straws.
https://www.axios.com/west-antarctica-rising-could-halt-melting-glaciers-325bec72-e20e-47d1-bb5f-2e1d2f9f4857.html
40
… and mankind is still culpable.
Witch-craft thinking, it just won’t go away.
20
When you have a group of willfully ignorant people addicted to a trendy cause, I suspect they will fight very hard to maintain thier status quo, hence the apparent zombie-like nature of this thing..
00
Mark M:
The answer is simple – the Earth is cooling as shown by Antarctica, but where Greenhouse believers are trapped in numbers, the rising hot air is keeping temperatures up slightly.
There – I expect to get double red thumbs for that. Come on you Trolls.
60
That paper is a mess of myths. When there is an inversion layer the air is heating the surface as well as releasing heat to space. The paper talks about the surface cooling slower because of the inversion layer – no it is actually being heated by the air coming in from the oceans. This has be known for a long time.
31
They’re desperate to explain why Antarctica persists with no AGW, and going its own way despite paper after paper attempting to warn us about its incipient melting, and temps belowm -50° C.
It is inventive.
30
Yes, imagine that, weather being…well…weather….
00
The comments on this blog seem to ignore night time and wet, cloudy, windless days. They are convinced that RE can power the country with storage which does not exist.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/has-aemo-downplayed-speed-of-clean-energy-transition-53479/
70
The more of those generators that have to be shut down as solar and wind take over, taking offline the inertia of those big heavy rotating parts, the more likely it is that she’ll be eating those words. The trouble is, the rest of you have to eat them too in the form of major outages over something your current coal fired system could survive easily.
But the renewables economy is demanding profits. Someone must feed the beast.
90
“They are convinced that RE can power the country with storage which does not exist.”
And at power levels which cannot be reasonably sustained!
The current minimum power demand for the NEM, is 18000 MWh, with a total of between 550 and 600 GWh for the day.
Solar farms currently supply just 0.5% of that, and wind, being highly variable, averages out at maybe 6-7%? Roof solar is meeting, maybe 5%. But of course, that’s only for a few choice hours in the middle of the day!
I dunno what planet these people are living on, but I cannot see any reasonable mechanism, or plan, that will bring RE up to anywhere near those levels!
Methinks all that chest beating about how much RE is providing, is mere puffery!
Of course, if they keep on their desired path, they may get to 46%, but it will be 46% of power that will not provided in a manner that will meet our power expectations! And they wont tell you that!
In the meantime, coal will just keep on keeping on, providing power, as, and when we need it!
60
Headlines; ‘Heatwave scorches Europe London to Siberia’.
So tell me guys is this a climate-change event or a something natural, or something both ?
Regards GeoffW
30
It might be this season called “summer.”
51
James I’ve experienced UK summers. This is not one of them.
10
In 1976 when I was visiting the UK there was a drought and weeks of very hot (heatwave) conditions, and again in 1997.
42
Also in 1990, 2003 and 2006.
22
I remember sitting in our south london flat when it was 30 C in 1992 and thinking it was warm…but London is humid, so….
00
Ahhh !……. Summer of ’76 in the UK..
…I was young !!
I had just graduated …..(remember Alice Coopers ” School’s Out” Feeling ?)
I had a well paid job,
Lived on my own yacht..
Beer was cheep. (15p a pint)
Girls were young, liberated …..and easily impressed !
Hot summers always bring back happy memories !
30
I lived in Rockhampton for a couple years. I copped a six week heatwave where the cool of the morning at 5am was 36C. The days were 47C in the shade. And I was out in a quarry doing quantity surveying. My God, the heat reflection in a quarry is something to behold.
I was heading into Rocky (I lived in Gracemere) one day down the Capricorn Highway, when I passed a Main Roads crew doing a re-seal on the highway. The hotmix gets laid at 60C, and the outside temperature was a good 46C. I thought, you poor bastards. I felt sorry for that crew I can tell you.
10
I had the unpleasant experience of living in Europe in 2003. It happens but the real issue is how poorly they are set up to handle it. Days of 35 plus in oz arent that big a deal, in Europe it can be a misery.
40
In 2003, having returned to the UK for a few years, I was appalled at the summer of that year. Our kitchen was stinking hot, having large windows facing east and south and a large paved patio. Despite the double-glazing (ha ha! fat lot of use!) the heat-gain there was atrocious, even before doing any cooking. We had a small ac we’d brought with us from Aus (thank goodness!) and my OH eventually fitted it into a window. I had been complaining of the heat and saying I didn’t leave Aus just to find the same ghastly heat back home! He said ‘Stop moaning!’I was still fixing up sheets over the windows in a desperate attempt to cool things 🙁
Somehow, temperatures in the 30s in England feel much worse than here in Aus.
62
That’s England.
Sunni one day, Shiire the next.
80
nb “r” gets past the moderator, “t” does not.
30
Dear Annie,
Oh dear, still laughing.
Your other half, as you call him, and I have a lot in common.
By the way, I think that double glazing is supposed to keep heat in, not out. It is a metaphor for the Green House effect!
20
It didn’t do that too well in that rectory Peter C. The window frames were metal and not well-fitting and the house walls not insulated and the roof not well insulated. We tried to improve things. The price of oil for the CH increased massively while we were there (no gas) and wood wasn’t cheap for the little open fire. We put in a little Villager stove (with the flat-top option for cooking in case the electricity went off) which was multi-fuel. Eventually we turned to wonderful black coal….far more efficient than wood…Welsh anthracite.
Red thumbers…more for you 🙂
41
And you can definitely call the last winters in India and North America winters. Not to mention Central and Southern Europe in early 2017.
But perhaps the period 2017-18 lies too far back in the past to be affected by “climate change”.
So I guess 2009-10 UK winter would be way before “climate change”.
Climate change. It’s like a little black dress with single-row of pearls. Goes with anything.
52
It’s called 1538-41…or 1976. Take pick.
1. These four years apparently experienced drought, with 1540 & 1541 particularly dry – in both these latter years, the Thames was so low that sea water extended above London Bridge, even at ebb tide in 1541. Three successive fine / warm summers from 1538-1540: the weather in 1540 was so fine that picking of cherries commenced before the end of May and grapes were ripe in July.
2. General warmth over Europe during the spring & summer of 1540. For England, there are several references to a hot summer, with great heat & drought; also many deaths due to the ‘Ague’. In this year (1540), there was so little water flowing in the Seine through Paris that people were able to walk across. (The next warm summer of equal worth is possibly that of 2003!)
(also noted in usw via Holland .. ” 1540 is described in contemporary chronicles as the ‘Big Sun Year’; the lower part of the Rhine from Cologne into the Netherlands is ‘dry’ – it didn’t rain over Italy, with Rome dry for something like 9 months. Forest/city fires, with many people dying of heat stroke, heart failure etc.”)
3. 1541: as indicated above, another drought year with rivers drying up (must have been quite extreme given that the previous year was notably dry). Cattle / other livestock dying for lack of water: dysentery killed thousands. – CET
91
Geoffrey Williams:
It is definitely a sign of Climate Change© as it is UNPRECEDENTED.
See also CHRISTIAN PFISTER , ROLF WEINGARTNER & JÜRG LUTERBACHER
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.51.5.966
Also the years
1541
1727
1866
1947
1976
1987
2003
2015
2017
” Also 1727 when people walked across the Rhine. James Halliday “The oldest riesling I have tasted (in the 1970s) was a 1727 Rüdesheimer Apostelwein from the Bremer Ratskeller, Len Evans bought it for the Single Bottle Club Dinner,
It was very expensive, and I wish I could say it was good, but the truth is that it tasted like an old manzanilla sherry.”
I cannot say what you would taste like after 250 years in a cask.
42
Thanks folks . . Well thats nailed it then.
It’s all happened before so will someone tell the media!!
Regards GeoffW
50
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/wolfe-the-border-crossers-issue-has-weakened-trudeaus-quebec-base
Looks like Quebec will be the next Provincial domino to fall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_general_election%2C_2018#Opinion_polls
Trudeau can’t win without Quebec.
50
Editorial cartoon in today’s (saturday) paper.
https://postmediatorontosun.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/dolighan_cartoon_jul2118.jpg
20
Major pollution alert! The “Steve Irwin” will be cruising up the east coast of Australia in order to “Stop Adani”. It was met at its port of arrival, here in Oz, by luminaries such as Bob Brown and Geoffrey Cousins as well other sundry mouthpieces for the Sea Shepherds (technicolour yawn here). All breathlessly reported by SBS on their nightly news bulletin last night. I travelled through the Soviet Union in 1968 and this felt like deja vu all over again.
71
BREAKING: DOJ Releases 412 Pg FISA Application Used Against U.S. Person Carter Page….
20
So does that mean Obama will be charged with colluding with he Russians to win the elections? They can’t have it one way with Trump and not the same with Obama.
41
I doubt it, it seems only Trump supporters seem to get held to the actual law, and anyone who tries to testify in court against Hellary seem to exhibit consistent terminal serial clumsiness….
00
BoM seasonal forecast wrong.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5868
21
Surely there must be a legal angle that can be used to stop new developments of unreliables being rated by their nameplate capacity and their supposed ability to service x 1000 homes? Any other industry that made such massively overrated claims would be prosecuted for false advertising. The same goes for the outrageous claim that the unreliables are cheaper than coal.
101
I think there is a greater chance of proving a wrong is being perpetrated by both major parties on criminal grounds than under a civil one. The simple fact of the matter is their energy polices are in direct violation of the national and security interests by encouraging power companies to neglect coal as the best and most economic means to produce power and instead instigate a less reliable and more expensive means for the consumer that not only destabilises the economy but also makes Australia less competitive on the global scene.
71
To save the planet there was little due diligence and they always have the ‘precautionary principle’ to fall back on.
So in a legal sense there is nothing we can do, except for a broad ranging Royal Commission.
31
If they had a Royal Commission (US equivalent of Presidential Commision) you can be certain it would be stacked with warmists.
62
Its different, Australian Royal Commissions are free of corruption.
Recent Royal Commissions into priestly bad behaviour and banking have been outstanding successes.
30
It is doubtful that a scheme that forces us to pay third parties “taxes” for the right to produce a commodity is constitutional. The government can’t confer taxing power on private entities. The ret is such a forced payment. It should be tested in court. Queensland water payments are the same, they break the law.
60
That is true but fighting the government in a court of law requires big bucks and big minds. It can be argued that in the US the federal tax “law” is anti-constitutional yet not many have the inclination to fight the IRS. It would be much simpler in our situation to wake up the people and expose the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain. Although some awakening is apparently happening (debatable) it’s too slow and too little to put a stop to renewables development any time soon, which is nothing more than a scare campaign of the CAGW scam artists lead by the likes of Turnbull and Shorten. If Shorten becomes PM it will only get worse. If he does become PM I wonder then if we have actually made any progress on the fight against the scam, and instead we’ve gone backwards.
20
Read and don’t be amazed …
Britain’s Wind Drought Exposes Big Green’s Epic Stupidity – http://bit.ly/2NzDjjh
Climate change means less wind ??
Further evidence of pigs at the trough when it comes to unreliable energy
$500,000 wind farm experts provided no advice in two years – http://bit.ly/2NvUeDx
90
That’s a job I could really sink my teeth into. How do I apply?
20
the sporting way: http://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/07/first-time-kneeling-out-for-game-blind.html
00
The fundamental flaw is already acknowledged —
Even the wannabe world rulers of the UN, are muddled in their thinking. The UN-IPCC says it’s not predictable…
However they still assert that –
In other words they wish to build on to an acknowledged unpredictable system a method by which they want control the world’s natural resources, and control all nations economic management.
91
Its called gilding the lilly….
00
Sometimes I read cr@p, and I just shake my head.
That bloke over at the Renew whatever site wrote this article three days ago. Yeah, I know, well, we all know here where his allegiances lie, but the general public would read this and take it for the truth, because why would he say it, eh?. Here’s the link to the article.
So, anyway I read the article, and then, because I know how, I chased up some background, and I’ll show you with three images.
The first statement is this:
Okay then, at that time, the State of South Australia was consuming around 1500MW of power. Both Interconnectors to Victoria were on line and drawing their maximum most probably.
Here’s the link to the first image and this shows the total wind power on line in SA at that time, 150MW at Midnight falling to 50MW and then all but zero.
So at the time in question wind power was delivering around 5% of the State’s power requirement from a Nameplate of 1800MW at an operational Capacity Factor of 4% and falling. But this had nothing to do with renewable power though.
If the wind power was even delivering at its average of 30% CF, then there would have been no problem at all, but, umm, this had nothing to do with renewable power, eh!
The main thrust of the article was how a gas fired plant Dry Creek, let the State down and was fined $60,000, and, as the article goes on to say:
This next image (at this link) is for all the gas fired power in that State, delivering more than 1000MW of the total, way up, because there was no wind power.
The article also says: (and here, Engie are the operators of the Dry Creek Gas fired plant in question)
This next image (at this link) shows the output from Dry Creek, which has three 52MW Units, and two of them were in operation for the duration of the problem, delivering 100MW + of its possible 156MW.
So, wind power fails, then there’s a problem, and the end result is that filthy fossil fuel plant gets the blame.
I wonder why things are not always as they get reported, eh!
Tony.
161
SA has had a day of free electricity, with wind generating 1300 MW, seemingly capped at 70% capacity factor, versus SA demand of 1030 MW overnight and 825 MW around midday. So from 11am-3.30 pm prices have averaged negative $100/MWhr, but now to meet evening peak demand of 1500 MW, prices are back to around $100/Mwhr. Is this any way to run a railroad, let alone an electricity network?
91
Here in a southern suburb of Adelaide I just experienced the first blackout of any length since Hazelwood closed in March last year. It was for exactly an hour. Wonder if it was our turn?
60
That’s either load shedding or a scheduled maintenance outage
20
I thought the new terminology for blackouts was ‘Demand Management’.
50
Yes, apparently if you want reliable power, you are deemed demanding…..
Its 2am…best I can do…. 🙂
00
Robber says ” seemingly capped at 70% capacity factor, ”
Maybe Tony from OZ can comment on that.
“Practical utility-scale wind turbines achieve at peak 75% to 80% of the Betz limit.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betz%27s_law
00
Nothing to do with Betz limit. The cap is for stability reasons so there is enough inertia in the system. It was set at 1200MW initially following the grid collapse a couple of years ago but has been eased a little since the Samsung/Tesla battery was installed.
The Betz limit is the proportion of mechanical energy that an air turbine can extract from a given air stream, being the ratio 16/27.
30
with Obama shilling for “renewables” in SA this week, here’s a telling tale, which might explain FakeNewsMSM, especially BBC, doing all they could to get rid of corrupt Zuma, so he could be replaced with corrupt Ramaphosa, about whom BBC has nothing negative to say!
9 March: IOL South Africa: 27 new renewable energy projects for Eskom – Jeff Radebe
by Staff reporter
CAPE TOWN – New Energy Minister Jeff Radebe announced that more renewable energy will enter into the national grid.
He made the announced at Parliament on Thursday that agreements with 27 renewable energy projects will be signed with Eskom on Tuesday.
They will contribute 2,305 megawatts of electricity.
Radebe says the R56 ($UA4.171bn) billion investment in the economy will create more than 60,000 jobs, 95% of which will be for South Africans…
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/energy/27-new-renewable-energy-projects-for-eskom-jeff-radebe-13673386
13 March: Reuters: South African pro-Zuma group blocks energy deals in blow to Ramaphosa
by Joe Brock; Additional reporting by Alexander Winning and Tiisetso Motsoeneng
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was dealt a political blow on Tuesday, after a last-minute legal challenge by a group loyal to ousted leader Jacob Zuma blocked the signing of $4.7 billion in renewable energy deals.
The North Gauteng High Court agreed to hold a full hearing on the challenge on March 27 after the National Union of Metalworkers (NUMSA) and Transform RSA, a group which has lobbied for Zuma in the past, on Monday argued the deals would lead to coal-sector job losses and should be scrapped.
State power utility Eskom was due to sign 27 mostly wind power and solar deals with independent power producers (IPPs), in the first major investment deal since Ramaphosa replaced Zuma last month…
The projects were delayed for two years under Zuma as he pursued a much-criticized $100 billion (USUALLY QUOTED AS $76BN) nuclear power plan…
“Transform RSA is a non-profit, grassroots lobby organization,” the group’s president Adil Nchabeleng told Reuters.
“We are opposed to the prohibitive cost of the IPP contracts.”
Some investors remained positive.
“I’m still fairly optimistic these deals will be signed. When you look at the cold, hard facts about our economy, these are the sort of deals that need to be done,” Wills said.
CORRUPTION PROBE
NUMSA and Transform RSA argue that a switch to renewable energy would increase electricity costs for poor South Africans.
Energy analyst Chris Yelland, however, said the cost of renewable energy had fallen significantly and it was now cheaper than new coal and nuclear projects…
South Africa relies on coal-fired plants for more than 80 percent of its electricity generation, while renewables contribute around 7 percent. Eskom is one of the world’s largest producers of greenhouse gases…
“Ultimately this application is futile and economic sense will prevail. South Africa must transform from a dirty energy economy to a cleaner energy economy,” Yelland said.
South Africa’s renewable power program was the fastest-growing in the world seven years ago, attracting $15 billion of investment into wind farms and solar projects involving a cluster of new IPPs backed by foreign investment.
Over the past two years Eskom stopped signing renewable energy contracts and focused instead on a plan to build a fleet of nuclear power plants, in a deal that some members of the ANC and rights groups said would be open to corruption…
Eskom’s former board is being investigated by parliament over allegations it siphoned off state funds to companies controlled by the Gupta family, businessmen friends of Zuma. Zuma and the Guptas deny any wrongdoing.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-power/south-african-pro-zuma-group-blocks-energy-deals-in-blow-to-ramaphosa-idUSKCN1GP1FP
more to come.
20
25 Apr: Quartz: How two South African women stopped Zuma and Putin’s $76 billion Russian nuclear deal
By Lynsey Chutel
It made no sense that a country like South Africa, with year-round sunshine, would abandon its renewable energy options to focus on nuclear power instead.
But a nuclear energy deal between South Africa and Russia has been at the center of much of South Africa’s political uncertainty as well as corruption allegations under former president Jacob Zuma, who resigned in February. The deal, which would have cost South Africa $76 billion to build a Russian-run nuclear energy plant, would have gone ahead if it weren’t for two women. For their work, Makoma Lekalakala, 52, and Liz McDaid, 55, were among those honored with the Goldman Environmental Prize in San Francisco on Apr. 23…
In 2014, Lekalakala received a tip from environmental activists in Russia that the South African government had signed a secret deal with the Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom to build a massive new power plant. As the head of a volunteer-driven organization called Earth Life, Lekalakala began to stage small protests around Johannesburg and outside the office of the national power supplier Eskom, but needed to create more awareness about the deal.
She contacted Liz McDaid, an old friend and a veteran anti-nuclear activist in Cape Town…
The deal would have also allegedly enriched Zuma’s son Duduzane Zuma, and his allies the Gupta family, who had already acquired a uranium mine allegedly in preparation for the nuclear project. In the meantime, Vladimir Putin’s political image began to loom larger over daily politics in South Africa…
https://qz.com/1260877/how-two-south-african-women-stopped-zuma-and-putins-76-billion-nuclear-deal/
14 Jul: TheCitizenSouthAfrica: Charles Cilliers: Ramaphosa and Patrice Motsepe ‘keep it in the family’ in the Middle East
The president’s billionaire brother-in-law seems well placed to benefit from his proximity to power, in both senses of the word.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has drawn both praise and criticism following the announcement of a more than R130 billion investment into the energy sector in South Africa from Saudi Arabia, the world’s wealthiest oil-producing country.
Among the questions now being asked are why Ramaphosa’s brother-in-law, Patrice Motsepe, and Motsepe’s business delegation were spotted in photographs as part of the president’s entourage.
Ramaphosa is married to Motsepe’s sister Dr Tshepo Motsepe.
The photo above generated some heated debate in ANC circles and beyond on Friday, particularly around the potential conflict of interest.
Motsepe is already one of Africa’s richest men, with a net worth calculated by Forbes as close to $2 billion (R25 billion).
It’s not clear why he was accompanying Ramaphosa to the Middle East. He was also known for accompanying former South African presidents on business trips.
Brian Dames was by Motsepe’s side. Dames is a former Eskom CEO and now the CEO of Motsepe’s energy company African Rainbow Energy & Power.
The energy company is run separately to Motsepe’s listed mining company, African Rainbow Minerals, and is focused on the independent power producers (IPP) programme in South Africa…
Ramaphosa was not the only high-powered family member in government for Motsepe on the trip, as the minister of energy, Jeff Radebe, is both Motsepe and Ramaphosa’s brother-in-law too.
The minister is married to Motsepe’s sister Bridgette Radebe.
Ramaphosa shifted Radebe to the energy portfolio in February as one of his first executive decisions after taking over from Jacob Zuma.
During the latter months of his presidency, Zuma was criticised by the anti-nuclear lobby for having reshuffled loyalist David Mahlobo from state security to energy in October 2017. Critics perceived the move as an effort to finalise a controversial R1 trillion nuclear deal with South Africa’s Brics partner Russia.
Ramaphosa’s administration has, however, made it clear the nuclear build programme has been placed on hold indefinitely…
***It was reported in May that Deputy President David Mabuza was sent to Russia to break the “bad news” to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that South Africa would not be going ahead with the nuclear deal involving Rosatom, due to affordability concerns.
Ramaphosa has, by contrast, backed renewable energy strongly – particularly under the IPP programme, which Motsepe now has a stake in.
Radebe was quick to sign renewable energy contracts in April worth about R55 billion with IPPs in what was seen as the first major investment deal under Ramaphosa. The deals had formerly suffered a two-year delay under Zuma. They were for power purchase agreements for 27 mostly solar and wind projects…
Motsepe’s energy company appears to be well placed to benefit from the trip to the Middle East. Although known mainly for its oil and gas industries, Saudi Arabia has a well-funded energy company focused on solar and wind power generation, ACWA, which has a presence in at least 10 countries.
Speaking on the success of the trip, Radebe was quoted as saying that “already we have signed a big deal on the renewable side of R12 billion with Redstone and ACWA in partnership with the Central Energy Fund for renewable in terms of solar and wind”…
The inclusion of Motsepe and his delegation on the trip fuelled criticism among Ramaphosa’s detractors in both the ANC and outside it. They view these business links with suspicion.
The inclusion of Motsepe is also seen to be a possible conflict of interest since Motsepe is not the only big player in the renewable energy sector, and may be unfairly favoured through his sudden renewed proximity to power (in both senses of the word)…
https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1979219/ramaphosa-and-patrice-motsepe-keep-it-in-the-family-in-the-middle-east/
20
20 Jul: TheCitizenSouthAfrica: Move over Zupta, Ramatsepe is here
by Citizen Reporter
The nickname ‘Ramatsepe’ is growing in popularity, with South Africans beginning to question the close ties between the president and his billionaire brother-in-law…
A growing number of people have picked up on this, with the nickname ‘Ramatsepe’ growing in popularity on social media as an equivalent to Jacob Zuma being dubbed ‘Zupta’ due to his close relationship with the Gupta family…
Ramaphosa shifted Radebe to the energy portfolio in February as one of his first executive decisions after taking over from Jacob Zuma.
Radebe was quick to sign renewable energy contracts in April worth about R55 billion with IPPs in what was seen as the first major investment deal under Ramaphosa…
Speaking on the success of the trip, Radebe was quoted as saying that “already we have signed a big deal on the renewable side of R12 billion with Redstone and ACWA in partnership with the Central Energy Fund for renewable in terms of solar and wind”.
Motsepe’s energy company, African Rainbow Energy & Power, also appeared to be well placed to benefit from the recent trip to the Middle East…
Some on social media consider the renewable energy projects taking place as evidence of possible corruption, with one user tweeting that they show “The Motsepe family looting this country”.
https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1983980/move-over-zupta-ramatsepe-is-here/
a discussion on the topic in March, pre later developments posted in comments, which includes involvement of France, China etc in other African countries’ energy sectors:
15 March: AvcomSouthAfrica: Fake or not?
Cyril Ramaphosa is in favour of renewable power projects worth R56 billion. His company, Shanduka is to start wind power projects. Patrice Motsephe’s African Rainbow Energy and Power is to invest R300 million in wind and solar projects. Minister Jeff Radebe signed off 27 Renewable Energy Projects (but was stopped by court).
Shanduka is run by Cyril’s brother, Douglas.
Patrice Motsepe’s one sister is married to Cyril.
Jeff Radebe is also married to a sister of Patrice.
True, false?…
Is this why they rejected nuclear power? Smells like State Capture all over again!
http://www.avcom.co.za/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=203478
10
final word on this topic:
Quartz writer, Lynsey Chutel, tweeted 19 Jul:
Hours after lamenting conspicuous consumption and calling for more inclusive capitalism, this was the menu at the gala dinner for Barack Obama after the #MandelaLecture
(LINKS TO)
18 Jul: TimesLiveSouthAfrica: R50k for dinner with Barack Obama
by Leonie Wagner
Dinner with former US president Barack Obama doesn’t come cheap. Just ask the people who attended a gala dinner after his Mandela lecture on Tuesday… because they forked out R50 000 (US$3,700) for the privilege…
The gala dinner was themed “night of a hundred words” and held in Nasrec‚ Johannesburg. Joining Obama as the headline VVIP guests were President Cyril Ramaphosa‚ Mandela’s widow Graca Machel‚ former president Kgalema Motlanthe‚ and human rights lawyer and friend of Mandela‚ George Bizos.
Guests‚ including Maria Ramos‚ Trevor Manuel‚ Herman Mashaba‚ Zweli Mkhize and Mthetho Nyathi dined on beef stew‚ kingklip and oysters‚ while quaffing pricey whiskey…
It was no ordinary dinner‚ considering that a ‘cheap seat’ set guests back between R15 000 and R30 000…
The packages for the gala‚ contained in the invitation‚ shows VVIP seating for 10 people cost R500 000 per table and a table for 16 people cost R800 000.
Tier 1 seating cost R400 000 per table and a regular tier 4 seat cost between R15‚000 and R30 000.
But what does R15 000 or R30 000 get you?…
The menu said the starter would be “Foraged Qunu – a tribute to a herd boy” but the starters were not served, apparently because the event was running late. This dish was described on the menu as “local ashed goats cheese‚ textures of beetroot‚ charred corn and toasted hazelnuts delicately adorned with a mesclun of baby herbs‚ served with a bursting blood orange vinaigrette”.
The main course offered three options‚ each served with isiphingo honey roast butternut and morogo. Guests could choose between Moretsele-style beef stew served with soft maize‚ grilled malay kingklip served on a scallion mash potato with a decadent coconut and tumeric latte cream and a vegetarian pescatarian vegan option of king oyster mushrooms on spicy edamame mash with grilled asparagus and lightly pickled radish.
https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-07-18-r50000-for-dinner-with-barack-obama/
10
An absurd article being pushed around is how Climate Change/Rising Sea levels are going to ‘mess with the internet’. Shameful climate clickbait.
Not the slightest bit concerned about the 180 million in Bandladesh half living less than 1 metre above sea level, the self indulged millenials in the West are more worried about their internet service? Don’t they realise the poor of Banglaseh stand to lose more? Have they no idea how dependent very poor people are on social networking? Have they no shame?
Who dreams this stuff up? After 30 years of rapidly rising sea levels, disappearing countries and drowning millions, these people have no idea. I was worried on the beach yesterday. I somehow sensed a change of a few mm in an average in my lifetime. I cannot say which way.
81
It would be fair to say that without Climate Scientists we would have no idea there was a problem with rapid sea level rise. We also would have no idea why we have to pay the world’s highest electricity prices to save ourselves and the rest of the planet by our extreme sacrifice, especially when 98.7% of CO2 pollution is from other countries.
102
21 Jul: ScienceAlert: Ocean Circulation Has Slowed Down Dramatically, And It Can’t Be Fully Explained by Climate Change Models
The decline is 10 times larger than expected.
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
Global warming isn’t the cause of slowdown in a huge circulation pattern in the Atlantic Ocean, which is, in fact, part of regular, decades-long cycle that will affect temperatures in coming decades, according to a new study…
“Climate scientists have expected the Atlantic overturning circulation to decline long-term under global warming, but we only have direct measurements of its strength since April 2004. And the decline measured since then is 10 times larger than expected,” says corresponding author Ka-Kit Tung, a professor of applied mathematics at the University of Washington with an adjunct appointment in atmospheric sciences…
“Many have focused on the fact that it’s declining very rapidly, and that if the trend continues it will go past a tipping point, bringing a catastrophe such as an ice age. It turns out that none of that is going to happen in the near future. The fast response may instead be part of a natural cycle and there are signs that the decline is already ending.”…
“The global climate models can project what’s going to happen long-term if carbon dioxide increases by a certain amount, but they currently lack the capability to predict surface warming in the next few decades, which requires a knowledge of how much the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases is being absorbed by the oceans,” Tung says…
The paper appears in Nature (LINK)…
Additional authors are from the Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory of Marine Science and Technology. The US National Science Foundation, the Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Key Basic Research Program of China, and a Frederic and Julia Wan Endowed Professorship funded the study.
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-dramatic-slowdown-of-atlantic-ocean-circulation-can-t-be-explained-by-climate-change-study-suggests
30
Those infallible ‘climate models’. Usually atmospheric models with little idea what is going on in the ocean the mobile heat bank with 340 x the mass of the thin air above, but you have to marvel at the soft language of the wise ‘scientists’.
“It Can’t Be Fully Explained by Climate Change Models. The decline is 10 times larger than expected.”
So with the best fudging, the ‘experts’ are only out a factor of ten? That is classified as not fully explained? Obviously the greatest moral challenge of a generation then. Has to be.
51
behind paywall:
21 Jul: UK Telegraph: ‘King of mining’ Hannam switches focus to tidal power
By Jillian Ambrose
He was once dubbed “the king of mining”, but now deal-maker ***Ian Hannam is throwing his weight behind renewable energy with an investment in tidal power.
Just weeks after ministers dashed hopes for the £1.3bn Swansea Bay tidal project, the former JP Morgan rainmaker and special forces soldier confirmed that he is poised to plough millions into Tidal Electric’s rival project. He will join backers including Dale Vince, the controversial green industrialist who founded Ecotricity.
The collapse of Swansea Bay, after four years of government deliberations, is expected to give way to a new project near the Scottish border which it is claimed could be built for little more than half the price…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/21/king-mining-hannam-switches-focus-tidal-power/
can’t recall Hannam and his background being mentioned in any of the Swansea Tidal stuff I’ve read previously:
***Bloomberg: JP Morgan Chase & Co: ***Ian Hannam
He is an investment banker with more than 30 years experience in capital markets and resource financing. Mr. Hannam was instrumental in the development of the capital market units of Salomon Brothers and later JP Morgan. He served as the Chairman of J.P. Morgan Capital Markets for Afghanistan at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Mr. Hannam served as the Chairman of Global Capital Markets at JP Morgan until April 2012. He served as a Member of Supervisory Board at Tantalus Rare Earths AG from October 2012 to September 24, 2013. Mr. Hannam was a Member of Executive Committee at JPMorgan Cazenove Limited. He is also a Chartered Civil Engineer (MICE, CEngl, FEANI). Mr. Hannam is a former Captain in the Territorial Army and has BSc. Engineering degree from Imperial College and MBA and MSc. Economics from London Business School…
https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=2102882&privcapId=137565157
10
He is probably right. The accepted total failure of Wind Power is putting pressure on governments so they are going to direct the money to that old favorite of King Canute.. Tidal power.
41
🙂
Needs no explanation TdeF
Tidal Power has failed everywhere.
Although it could possibly work at the entrance to Port Phillip Bay. However I am not sure how we would get the ships in and out through the barrier.
50
If this madness continues to its logical conclusion we might combine solar and wind and use solar wind power generation in space, which not too surprisingly has been considered: Solar Wind Power: Generating Power In The Future There’s certainly no shortage of really dumb ideas.
20
I had a quick look at that Peter S. Are you sure it isn’t April the 1st?
31
No it wasn’t meant to be a joke. It’s no less serious than the idea a long time ago of using solar sails to propel spacecraft. Sure if the sail is big enough it could propel a spacecraft but unless you want to wait a very long time to reach your destination it would be far quicker to use traditional propulsion techniques. You also would have the problem of how to stop, and the other problem of how to use it in the return trip. People do come up with some really silly ideas because they don’t think it through, much like the renewables saga.
20
As we revisit old sources of power, short of a donkey in a harness, there was an 1880’s system at the entrance to Port Phillip Bay. If you are in the area you can see it, a steel sphere (Backbeach road) on a chain. As the sea rose and fell, the chain was pulled with the sea rise. Power for a short time once a day.
The problem is not the Green’s fascination with ‘free’ but the cost of harvesting and the need to harvest more. Coal is also free and you can bring the coal to one point. Solar is the worse, not only as bad as tidal but the energy available is pitiful per square meter.
So we are doomed to have others spend our money on their post medieval ideas. Never a real scientist involved. Except the directors of kangaroo boy Flannery’s hot rocks scheme which failed with $93Million of our money in a government investment. At the time I noted the SA (university) directors drew salaries of $400,000 a year for consultation. The public service calls this ‘research’. Failure is guaranteed and the players get paid anyway. Great fun. No risk. Too bad about all the public money down a hole.
40
See the steel Tide Ball in the photo outside the Portsea Historical Society building.
20
Tide ball reminds me of the young lady from Bulli Pass who stood in the water up to her ankles.
But that doesn’t rhyme they said.
No, but it will when the tide comes in.
50
what about the guy from Cessnock?
00
ENVIRONNEMENT – DES IDÉES POUR SAUVER LA GRANDE BARRIÈRE DE CORAIL
L’Australie avait lancé un appel aux chercheurs pour trouver des solutions pour sauver le précieux récif. Voici leurs idées.
Le gouvernement australien fait tout pour sauver sa Grande barrière de corail.
22.07.2018, 00h42
Le gouvernement australien cherche à réparer la Grande barrière de corail, joyau du patrimoine de l’Humanité est menacé par le changement climatique. Augmenter la capacité réflective des nuages ou recouvrir la mer d’un film protecteur figurent parmi leurs options.
L’immense récif qui fait la taille du Japon ou de l’Italie a subi en 2016 et 2017 deux graves épisodes de blanchissement du fait des hausses de la température de l’eau. Les spécialistes estiment qu’une zone de 2300 kilomètres de long pourrait avoir subi des dégâts irrémédiables.
Le gouvernement australien a promis de lutter contre le changement climatique en général mais aussi d’étudier des mesures à plus court terme pour donner un peu de répit au plus vaste ensemble corallien du monde. Dans ce contexte, Canberra avait lancé en janvier un appel aux chercheurs, débloquant deux millions de dollars australiens destinés à financer des idées innovantes pour sauver le site. Celui-ci est aussi menacé par les activités industrielles et agricoles, ainsi que par l’acanthaster pourpre, une étoile de mer invasive, dévoreuse de coraux.
Six projets sur 69
Six projets sélectionnés sur un total de 69 propositions seront testés pour vérifier leur faisabilité, a annoncé le gouvernement vendredi. L’un d’eux envisage d’éclaircir les nuages en y injectant des cristaux de sel marin, ce qui augmente leurs capacités réflectives. David Mead, chercheur à l’Institut australien des sciences marines, a déclaré que la proposition avait un vrai potentiel même si elle pouvait apparaître à première vue farfelue.
«Notre équipe étudie l’utilisation d’un embout très fin pour injecter des petites gouttelettes d’eau de mer à un rythme de plusieurs milliards par seconde. L’eau se vaporise et il reste des particules de sel qui flotteront dans l’air. Si on peut les injecter dans le système, on peut augmenter le taux de lumière solaire qui est réfléchie», a-t-il dit au groupe de médias ABC.
Film biodégradable
Autre idée, un film biodégradable ultra-fin contenant des particules réfléchissantes et qui viendrait recouvrir certains des récifs pour les protéger de la chaleur. «Ce qui est bien avec ce film c’est qu’il ne fait que l’épaisseur d’une molécule, on peut nager à travers et il se reformera tout seul», a déclaré sur ABC Andrew Negri, un autre scientifique de l’Institut.
Parmi les autres pistes sélectionnées, la production massive de larves de corail grâce à l’impression 3D de surfaces pour soutenir leur croissance, ou le prélèvement et la relocalisation de larves. (ats/nxp)
https://www.lematin.ch/sante/environnement/idees-sauver-grande-barriere-corail/story/11155497
———————————-
ENVIRONMENT – IDEAS FOR SAVING THE GREAT CORAL BARRIER
Australia had appealed to researchers to find solutions to save the precious reef. Here are their ideas.
The Australian government is doing everything to save its Great Barrier Reef.
22.07.2018, 00:42
The Australian government is seeking to repair the Great Barrier Reef, a world heritage jewel is threatened by climate change. Increasing the reflective ability of clouds or covering the sea with a protective film are among their options.
The immense reef that is the size of Japan or Italy suffered in 2016 and 2017 two serious bleaching episodes due to increases in water temperature. Experts estimate that an area of 2300 kilometers long could have suffered irreparable damage.
The Australian government has pledged to fight climate change in general, but also to look at shorter-term measures to give some relief to the world’s largest coral ensemble. In this context, Canberra launched a call for researchers in January, unblocking two million Australian dollars to fund innovative ideas to save the site. It is also threatened by industrial and agricultural activities, as well as the purple acanthaster, an invasive coral-eating starfish.
Six projects out of 69
Six projects selected out of a total of 69 proposals will be tested to verify their feasibility, the government announced on Friday. One of them plans to thin the clouds by injecting sea salt crystals, which increases their reflective abilities. David Mead, a researcher at the Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, said the proposal had real potential even though it might seem far-fetched.
“Our team is studying the use of a very fine nozzle to inject small droplets of seawater at a rate of several billion per second. The water vaporizes and there are still particles of salt that will float in the air. If we can inject them into the system, we can increase the amount of sunlight that is reflected, “he told the ABC media group.
Biodegradable film
Another idea is an ultra-thin biodegradable film containing reflective particles that would cover some of the reefs to protect them from heat. “What’s good about this film is that it’s just the thickness of a molecule, you can swim through it and it will reform itself,” ABC’s Andrew Negri, another scientist from the US, said. ‘Institute.
Among other selected tracks, the massive production of coral larvae through the 3D printing of surfaces to support their growth, or the collection and relocation of larvae. (Ps / nxp)
https://www.lematin.ch/sante/environnement/idees-sauver-grande-barriere-corail/story/11155497
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St Erths to St Ives – On the slow Train
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6OHD2uCpfU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slow_Train
Just back from the long flight from the UK to Melbourne and can’t get to sleep!
One of my short bucket list activities for Cornwall was to take the train from St Erths to St Ives, because I heard about it on the Flanders and Swan song; “The Slow Train”. Some how the phrase has stuck in my mind for nearly sixty years.
“From St Erths to St Ives
They”ve all past out of our lives”
Not so in the case of the branch line from St Erths (on the main Cornwall Line) to St Ives( A popular beach holiday location). The Line is still open. The trip takes just 15 minutes, which is disappointing because the sea side scenery is very beautiful. The Beaches there are as good as anywhere I have seen. Real broad golden sand, not like the pebble beaches on the south coast.
St Ives is a popular destination in summer but car parking is very limited. If you want to go St Ives the train is a good option. We enjoyed a sumptuous Cornish Tea (ie scones with cream and jam) at a hotel with magnificent view of the bay.
40
Thanks for the link to the song.
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Jetlag is horrible! I hope the sleep pattern re-sets soon Peter C.
We still have our old LP’s of Flanders and Swann, one of which has the slow train song. Beeching didn’t do a lot of favours to the country with so many line and station closures. My favourite of theirs (F and S that is) is the song of patriotic prejudice 🙂 Cue red thumbs, the snowflakes won’t like it. 😉
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The dubious origins of the anti drinking straw movement. It now has a life of its own.
QUOTE
That anti-straw movement? It’s all based on one 9-year-old’s suspect statistic
Nine-year-old Milo Cress launched a campaign to ditch plastic straws in 2011 propelled by an unverified figure. Now it’s turned into a movement.
The origin of the movement to ban plastic straws may come as a surprise: It began with a 9-year-old boy named Milo Cress and his 2011 campaign, “Be Straw Free,” which launched to raise awareness about plastic waste.
His big finding? Americans use more than 500 million drinking straws daily, enough to fill 125 school buses. That figure has become highly touted since, referenced in straw ban coverage from The New York Times and National Geographic to reports from the National Park Service (and USA TODAY).
Now 16 years old, Cress just finished his junior year of high school and finds himself the face of a movement felt by global chains from Starbucks to McDonald’s. But it’s not without criticism — especially of his 500 million stat.
(See link for rest.)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/18/anti-straw-movement-based-unverified-statistic-500-million-day/750563002/
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so… no one else – no scientific paper, no EPA report, no city or region report, no private individual, no water way management authority – has ever looked at plastic straws in the environment anywhere in the world in any eco-system? Just this 9 year old?
That’s incredible.
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i missed a great opportunity to point out that your 9 year old is a straw man.
mercy!
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You might well beg for mercy for that one GA!
11
The most recent video of the beautiful sight of a burning windmill.
https://youtu.be/BSMN8vvaB2M
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I can’t find where or when this happened. ?
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Thanks David,
When I watched the next video called 5 Wind Turbine which Failed (Environmentally friendly?), It was proceeded by a long Ad showing the construction of a Wind Turbine at the Mt Gellibrand site (Victoria). There is a huge lump of reinforced concrete at the base which will not get removed in a hurry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVHzfUWul2Y
The Ads was by Acconia. I am not sure if it will show every time the Video is played, nor how to link to the Ad. It was quite interesting.
30
this is not an Irish joke:
19 Jul: Irish Times: Ireland has much to learn from Germany’s Energiewende
Plugging into the power of ‘citizen energy’ thanks to cheap renewable technologies
“We take the sun from the roof to the wineglass,” says Tomas Huster. “We know all about climate change here – we now have to use grapes that used to be grown only in Italy.”…
The solar panels are also a viable financial proposition, contributing to the Huster bottom line. Most of the electricity is used right here on site, but the rest is sold through a community energy co-operative, UrStrom, which owns and operates the PV installation on the roof…
“The EU Clean Energy Package made it clear that people living in the EU have the right to create consume, and trade their own energy,” says Klaus Grieger of UrStrom. “At the moment there is a big shift to solar. We believe it’s a human right to use the sun. You cannot tax the sun!”
“Even without the climate issue it’s a no-brainer,” says Prof Peter Beck of the Trier University of Applied Sciences. “You’re adding value, independence and development instead of sending your money away to Saudi Arabia and Russia. There are now 400 villages in Germany that are basically energy independent. Mayors talk to mayors and they make it work.”…
With Ireland under growing pressure to meet its climate targets, the government here is due to announce a new Renewable Energy Support Scheme (RESS), which will include measures to incentivise communities and promote solar energy, which has been a slow burner here. The heatwave may have proved that there is no shortage of sun, and consultants for the Department of Climate Action believe rooftop solar can be financially viable – without supports – in at least one region by 2025 and that ground mounted PV could be viable in several regions by 2030…
But even in Germany gaining support for renewable energy projects isn’t always easy…
As in Ireland there has been a growing pushback…
Former mayor Bertram Fleck: “When I talk to my Green Party colleagues I talk about the climate,” he says, but when I talk to farmers and entrepreneurs I talk about money, and ask them why do you send your money away to oil producers?”…
“The windmills may be in one, spoiling the view of the others, so I suggest they share the revenue, giving some to individuals and some to the community to spend on social services, for example,” he says. “There’s a lot of creativity involved, and it depends on how agile and sensitive the person promoting the development is.”…
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/ireland-has-much-to-learn-from-germany-s-energiewende-1.3566640
30
30 Jun: Daily Mail: Smart meters to charge customers more during peak times raising the prospect of inflated bills during Easter and Christmas holidays
•Consumers face increased energy costs during times of greatest demand
•Smart meters have been touted as a way of ensuring energy bills are fairer
•It is feared, energy companies will use the technology to increase their profits
•Energy prices under the new system could change every 30 minutes
By Sara Smyth
Energy firms using smart meters have a ‘hidden agenda’ to charge customers more when demand for power surges, an expert has warned…
The former head of gas and electric meter technology at the energy regulator Ofgem, Jerry Fulton, said the industry will quickly move beyond a two-tier peak and off-peak system to prices that change every 30 minutes depending on demand…
He told The Daily Telegraph: ‘I believe that the hidden agenda behind smart meters is that they will allow half-hourly charging.
‘Instead of having two charge rates – day and night – the price of energy will change every half hour, so when solar and wind generation are low and usage is high the price of electricity will rise steeply.’…
A smaller provider, Green Energy UK, already has a ‘time-of-day’ tariff where prices vary between periods of high and low demand. It charges five times more for electricity used in early evening than it does overnight…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5902711/Smart-meters-charge-customers-peak-times.html
20
Just looked at the AEMO electricity generation balances over the last 24 hours.
Wind has been generally stable, delivering 2.5 GW late yesterday to 3 GW this morning.
Hydro peaked at over 4 GW yesterday evening and this morning, dropping to a low of 1.5 GW during the day and overnight. Is that the minimum required to keep the rivers flowing?
So that left fossil fuels to balance demand, from a low generation of 15 GW midday yesterday to a peak of 21 GW at 6pm, back to a low of 15 GW overnight, and back up to 21 GW this morning, and now down to the midday low of 18 GW. As Tony has pointed out in his excellent reports, on average coal has been delivering about 72% of demand, gas 8%, hydro 10%, wind 6% and solar 4%.
Give thanks that we still have enough reliable and dispatchable fossil fuels to respond to demand. Remember that there must be at least another 3 GW of fossil generators on standby for when the wind generates close to zero GW as occurred last week.
Now consider what happens when wind/solar double their average contribution from 10% to 20%. (Despite Frydenberg and the ESG’s NEG saying the future is technology agnostic, the only planned new generation is wind/solar given state government commitments to higher % “renewables”). So coal/gas will have to reduce their average contribution from 80% to 70%, but they must still be available to deliver up to 95% of demand with 5% hydro when wind/solar fail to deliver. Yet the rotten NEG would assure us that their “modelling” says electricity prices will come down, despite what will be an increasingly unstable grid. Would you buy a used car from these bungling bureaucrats and pitiful pollies?
90
Yes it’s so revealing that both major parties are insisting we keep reducing our emissions by increasing our reliance on renewables. Yet both are still saying their energy polices will reduce power prices. In any other nation in a similar situation I bet the polls would be showing one or more of the minor parties catching up if not overtaking the majors. I suppose it proves the point that Australians are by and large either very gullible or still have too much money to worry about power prices, depending on the person’s situation and political persuasion.
30
this is unbelievable, even if it involves a NeverTrumper Curbelo:
22 Jul: Hotair: House Republican proposing carbon tax this week
by Taylor Millard
Florida Congressman Carlos Curbelo is getting ready to introduce a bill repealing the gas tax in exchange for a carbon tax. It seems rather odd the Miami Republican wants to chart this path, especially after the House GOP overwhelmingly denounced (LINK) the notion of a carbon tax last week, but Curbelo isn’t backing down from his proposal. He told (LINK) Miami Herald his proposal is just a “first step” in the discussion…
Curbelo vows he’s got GOP co-sponsors, so it will be quite interesting to see exactly who is signed onto the proposal. My guess is it probably includes five of the Republicans who voted against the no carbon tax resolution last week…READ ALL
https://hotair.com/archives/2018/07/22/house-republican-proposing-carbon-tax-week/
00
comment in moderation re
22 Jul: Hotair: House Republican proposing carbon tax this week
Florida Congressman Carlos Curbelo is getting ready to introduce a bill repealing the gas tax in exchange for a carbon tax. It seems rather odd the Miami Republican wants to chart this path, especially after the House GOP overwhelmingly denounced (LINK) the notion of a carbon tax last week…
00
AEMO hopium gives single axis tracking solar at a current cost of $1,952/kW.
By comparison a current large rooftop solar installation, which I believe has fixed panels, works out at a cost of $2307/kWh:
http://www.ecovoice.com.au/natures-organics-flicks-the-switch-on-massive-solar-installation/
So estimate already 18% low.
Then by magic, by 2030 the solar prices drop to $1033/kW. That is less than half the current price!
Batteries have a greater sprinkling of pixie dust. The current price for a Tesla Powerwall works out at $944/kWh. AEMO price for battery storage is given as $740/kWh. AEMO somehow get that down to $610/kWh by 2030. And the battery life is given as 15 years.
These are the basic numbers that are fiddled with to make decisions on the future of the NEM network.
It will be interesting to see how ACCC and AEMO stack up. All these people need to be put in a room and asked one simple question – What is needed to get the lowest cost reliable power supply to Australian consumers!
The AEMO report embodies the Climate Change religion – they are true zealots of the cause.
40
And guess where AEMO got their cost projections from? Why that bastion of green warmistas at the CSIRO. What number do you need to justify more renewables? No problem. So simple to make numbers up for 2030.
20
Rooftop panels with batteries are fine, the market disruption is caused by the inverters feeding unused current onto the grid, analogous to dumping in international trade, and the owners are actually rewarded instead of penalised for the predatoriness.
30
The NEG will continue subsidies for renwables until 2030. By that time most coal fired plants will have shut down as the increasing disruption takes it toll in lost revenue and increased maintenance. Then the true believers think that there will be no choice but to go for 100% renewables with pumped storage and batteries etc (blackouts).
They will get a shock as the public turns against them. I give the Liberal Party 5 years maximum before it drops into the also ran group. Labor will survive as there are always enough gullible who think that the Government has a big bag of money to give them, but when that turns out to be a mirage they will be wracked by divisions and lose hope of office.
Hard times coming along with colder weather will soon see reality in place.
40
never mind it was a complete flop – FakeNewsMSM keep up the PR:
The Teen-Agers Fighting for Climate Justice
The New Yorker-11 hours ago
Youth Climate Change Activists Marched on Washington, DC
TeenVogue.com-13 hours ago
Young Activists Rally Against Climate Change in Keene
International-New Hampshire Public Radio-8 hours ago
21 Jul: Reuters: U.S. loses bid to end children’s climate change lawsuit
by Jonathan Stempel
A federal appeals court in San Francisco on Friday rejected the Trump administration’s renewed bid to dismiss a lawsuit by young activists who say the U.S. government is ignoring the perils of climate change.
By a 3-0 vote, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said the government fell short of the “high bar” needed to dismiss the Oregon case, originally brought in 2015 against the administration of President Barack Obama…
A spokesman for the U.S. Department of Justice declined to comment.
The activists are seeking various environmental remedies.
Julia Olson, one of their lawyers, said in a phone interview, “The 9th Circuit sees that this case needs to go to trial with a full factual record on the young plaintiffs’ harms, their constitutional rights and climate science.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-lawsuit/u-s-loses-bid-to-end-childrens-climate-change-lawsuit-idUSKBN1KA2SB
10
Good…let the greenies perjur themselves in court trying to pass off scientically wrong information. The court trashed Gores dumb movie, i suspect the outcone will be similar.
00
A curious article from the Grauniad: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/23/sanjeev-gupta-coal-power-is-no-longer-cheaper-and-well-prove-it
Claim is that “…considered investing in coal generation in the state’s Upper Spencer Gulf after buying Arrium’s steel mill last year but found solar backed by “firming” storage technologies made better economic sense.”
10
“The Serf On Soros”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2018/07/21/the-serf-on-soros/
30
Thx Ian. )
00
Well worth a read…it exercised my brain fairly thoroughly; I’m no philosopher! I will go back to it again.
20
The other “free renewable”.
We keep being told that the sun and wind are free, and therefore by 2030 or 2050 our electricity will be cheaper. So we won’t need that “dirty” coal, and why would we let anyone dig holes in our lovely earth searching for inflammable hydrocarbons when we can generate “clean” energy?
But we have been ignoring the third leg of this renewable trifecta – rain water is free!
Just imagine every time rain falls we collect that water at roof level and run it through mini turbines – surely enough energy to recharge our mobile phones.
But wait, there’s more. We store that rain water, and use our surplus midday solar electricity to pump that water back up to rooftop holding tanks so that now we can generate the electricity we need at dinner time – our very own pumped hydro system.
And then: Every time you flush, as that water goes into the underground sewers again it passes through another turbine as it wends its way down to sea level.
Do I apply to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for a grant, or the Clean Energy Council, or the CSIRO, or some gullible greenies, or will Musk bankroll me?
Yes folks, it’s comedy hour. By 2050, every household will enjoy energy utopia.
20
Many a true word spoken in jest.
The triumph of our industrial age has been the centralising of industry into larger, more specialised units. The new-improved industrial age will be cottage industries again, or so it seems.
00
Peace in the Middle East?????
Trump could cure cancer and his detractors would still shout at him “But what have you done today?”
This is a link to a short video by Dick Morris, one time Bill Clinton CofS where he explains that the summit with Putin was to prevent a war between Israel and Iraq into which Syria, Russia and the US may be drawn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGP1sppuUy0
I’ve done the search for the Caroline Glick’s article he referenced:
https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/07/18/caroline-glick-trump-was-the-big-winner-at-helsinki-summit/
00
Of course I meant “Iran” not “Iraq”.
00
Check this out
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/24/mary-robinson-launches-new-feminist-fight-against-climate-change
00