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Statistics
An introduction to Alarmist statistical testing (also called hypothesis testing).
==========
Rule 1. Never specify a null hypothesis.
If you can’t “prove” that your favoured hypothesis is true, then it is easier to claim that you are still correct, if you don’t have a null hypotheses.
==========
Rule 2. Insist that a slowdown or pause, must be statistically significant, before you will accept that it exists.
Slowdowns and pauses are both “negative” results. They exist when there is NO statistically significant result.
By saying that you will not accept that a slowdown or pause exists, unless it is statistically significant, you are effectively saying that you will NEVER accept that a slowdown or pause exists, even if it lasts for 10,000 years.
Compare the Alarmist belief, with this statement. “I will never accept that the apple barrel is empty, unless there are a statistically significant number of apples in it”.
Slowdowns and pauses should be specified in the null hypothesis. Remember rule 1, never specify a null hypothesis.
==========
Rule 3. Looking for a slowdown or pause, in “noisy” temperature data, is like looking for a black cow on a moonless night. They are hard to see.
An Alarmist is like a person who has cow manure on their shoes, who insists that there are no black cows around, on a moonless night.
==========
Sorry, I only had 5 minutes to put this together. I have a hypothesis, that Alarmists make a lot more stupid statistical mistakes, than the ones that I have described here. But I am not going to specify a null hypothesis (because I know that I am right, and I don’t want to allow the possibility that I might be wrong).
80
Another rule perhaps could be to always invoke the Precautionary Principle, even when it’s not obvious that anything is wrong.
20
.
❶①❶①❶①❶①
❶①❶①❶①❶①
❶①❶①❶①❶①
❶①❶①❶①❶①
.
A simple bar chart, that shows how bad global warming is.
Most pictures are worth 1000 words, but this one is worth 2000.
https://agree-to-disagree.com/it-is-worse-than-we-thought
41
The world has to try a lot harder then. How about forcing China to close down half their existing coal fired power stations and stop them building hundreds of new ones? Good luck with that one. Come to think of it I would love to see the left try that tact. China would do us a favour by rounding all the left up and doing whatever they do with dissidents.
50
Sheldon, your link doesn’t tell us where the BS latitude is. I think it would help understand the whole thing if we knew. And I think I can guess at it very accurately. It’s 97% of the way from the top to the bottom of the Earth multiplied by my IP address.
Of course I won’t tell you my IP address which is in keeping with good alarmist practice. After all, CRU didn’t give out their data either — if they actually had any.
Everyone has a theory, a graph, a breakdown of this, that or the other thing. And the only certain figure out of the alarmist camp for so many years I can’t count them is 97%. So I think you’ll have to admit that I’m right. After all, I used all the right numbers and followed the correct procedures.
Didn’t I? Well, I’m not completely certain. It may have been Al Gore’s IP address or even Michael Mann’s. 😉
30
Sheldon Walker
You have performed an interesting analysis
on very faulty surface temperature “data”.
I say “data”
because a majority of the numbers
are wild guessed (infilled) with no attempt
to verify the guesses are correct, and no way
to falsify the guesses)
… and the remaining numbers
have been “adjusted”,
often more than once,
so that what is left
is not real data at all.
Infilled numbers are not data.
Once measured numbers are “adjusted”,
they are also no longer data — they are an
opinion of what the data would have been
if measured correctly in the first place.
As a result of analyzing
such haphazard “data”,
your chart is not real science.
What you have done, in plain English,
is to take a steaming pile of farm animal
waste product temperature numbers,
and sub-divided them into
smaller piles of farm animal
waste products, so we can study
the waste products it more detail !
I am saying your “study” stinks
because the source “data” stink !
A real scientist would have analyzed data
quality and found many faults
— so many that the “data”
would have been dismissed as not worthy
of attention and/or further analysis.
Some of the “data” quality problems are:
– Majority of surface grids infilled,
– Repeated arbitrary “adjustments”,
– 1800’s thermometers tended to read low,
– Very few Southern Hemisphere measurements
before 1900 — and few from 1900 to 1940,
– Repeated changes in sea surface
measurement methodologies,
with no attempt to compare
the methodologies for consistency,
– Assuming sailors with a wood bucket and a
thermometer could ever accurately measure
sea surface temperatures,
– Surface measurements
do not correlate strongly
with weather satellite
and weather balloon data, which
do correlate with each other, and
– The government bureaucrats
compiling the data have repeatedly
predicted a lot of global warming,
and through their infilling and “adjustments”
can ensure that their own predictions
come true —
that’s a huge financial
conflict of interest,
especially considering government
bureaucrat climate “scientist” jobs are
exist MAINLY because of
the (false) claim
that a climate catastrophe
is coming
and that (false) threat
requires a lot of
scientific analyses!
10
Great
00
.
Skeptical Sheldon’s perplexing perspective on global warming.
==========
(You can read more of Sheldon’s nonsense at https://agree-to-disagree.com)
Alarmists have a very boring view of global warming. They are content to have a single warming rate, for the date range 1970 to 2018. Something like +1.80 degrees Celsius per century.
That is like driving everywhere in your car, at 10 km/h.
Sheldon’s first rule of global warming is,
Rule 1 – You can never have too many warming rates.
All right, this is a slight exaggeration. 343,207 warming rates is too many.
But 343,206 warming rates, is perfect.
==========
Rule 2 – The phrase “temperature anomalies” has too many letters. I am just going to call them temperatures. If you don’t like me doing this, then cut and paste my entire comment into a word processor, and replace all “temperatures” with “temperature anomalies”.
==========
There is an easy way to calculate how many warming rates that there are in a temperature series.
If you have X temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is,
(X) * (X – 1) / 2
If you have Y temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is,
(Y) * (Y – 1) / 2
If you have Z temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is,
(Z) * (Z – 1) / 2
If the number of temperatures in a temperature series is NOT X, Y, or Z, then you are out of luck, there is no way to calculate the number of warming rates.
==========
So, if you have 10 temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is (10) * (10 – 1) / 2 = 45
If you have 100 temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is (100) * (100 – 1) / 2 = 4,950
If you have 1000 temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is (1000) * (1000 – 1) / 2 = 499,500 [see Rule 1 – this is too many warming rates]
Once, I tried to calculate all of the warming rates for the date range from 1880 to 2018, using monthly data.
This is 138 years = 138 * 12 = 1656 months, plus 1 for good luck = 1657 temperatures.
Why plus 1 for good luck? Because I am going from January 1880 to January 2018
So, if you have 1657 temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is (1657) * (1657 – 1) / 2 = 1,371,996
This is too many warming rates. My computer blew up, so I can’t tell you what the warming rate was. But I know that it starts with a 7
==========
I frequently calculate all of the warming rates for the date range 1970 to 2018, using monthly data. I have to calculate them frequently, because I keep forgetting what they are.
From 1970 to 2018 is 48 years = 48 * 12 = 576 months, plus 1 for good luck = 577 temperatures
So, if you have 577 temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is (577) * (577 – 1) / 2 = 166,176
166,176 warming rates is an acceptable number of warming rates. More would be better, but it is important not to be greedy.
There are only a finite number of warming rates in the universe, and if people are greedy, then there won’t be enough for everybody to have some.
==========
Remember how there are too many warming rates from 1880 to 2018, using monthly data (please pay attention, there are 1,371,996 warming rates. I told you earlier).
I have worked out a way of “cheating”, so that I can get the warming rates for 1880 to 2018. On average, there are approximately 30.5 days in a month. While the computer is not looking, I edit the BIOS, and change the average number of days in a month to be 61.0
Then I run my program, and the computer doesn’t realise that there are too many warming rates for the date range 1880 to 2018.
Alright, I admit that I didn’t quite tell you the truth. What I do, is combine pairs of months, by averaging the 2 months together, to get 1 temperature for every 2 months. This gives me 6 temperatures per year, instead of 12 temperatures per year.
From 1880 to 2018 is 138 years = 138 * 6 = 828 pairs of months, plus 1 for good luck = 829 temperatures
So, if you have 829 temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is (829) * (829 – 1) / 2 = 343,206
I told you near the start of this comment, that 343,206 warming rates is the perfect number of warming rates.
Now you know why.
==========
In my next comment, I will tell you how to associate a colour with each warming rate, so that you can make pretty pictures, which have nothing to do with global warming. Nudge nudge, wink, wink, say no more.
41
?
20
A reasonable response Keith.
But hey, for the first time in a long time, I was actually able to talk to a warmist, tho a little by accident.
There is a skew, all the participants in the described conversation are elderly pilots/
At a regular airport gettogether I discovered that a fellow I knew, an otherwise sane human being, believed in global warming. After all, he lives in Wisconsin, and has observed that the winters seem to be getting warmer. That’s enough for him.
Now, having been a victim many times of political correctness and liberal orthodoxy ruining an otherwise fine relationship, I ran from the conversation as fast as possible.
But an opportunity arose later to approach the subject obliquely, and I actually was able to briefly discuss climate without being disagreeable.
There is a small town in Ohio named Moraine. It is on the Miami river.
Along the river is a small airport. In my youth an ice dam on the river caused a flood that destroyed a project I had underway, which I have reconstituted in retirement. I had a flash when discussing my current project…..
Do you know where the name Moraine comes from?
I was mildly surprised that no one did. Hmmmm.
A Moraine is the debris left by a receding glacier. In this case the Laurentide ice sheet covered north America, several miles thick in places,
and it receded as civilization began in Mesapotmia, carving out the great lakes and generally creating the geography we know today.
Sure, they said, but that was millions of years ago….what do you mean as civilization began.
……Ding ding ding…..take a deep breath…..
You may be wrong, I said. We have archelogical evidence of the beginnings of civilization as we know it, rather than wandering tribes, in Mesapotamia on the order of 5000 years BC. Right? That’s about 7000 years ago.
Heads nodded …. I could tell history was not a strong suite here.
Since there was clearly a development period, It’s fair to put the dawn of civilization about 10,000 years …. and the primary recession of the Laurentide sheet happened starting about 20,000 years ago, and we are feeling the effects still today. We can still identify some 20,000 year old ice that’s a remnant of this sheet, as the forces that moved us from an ice age to the present warm period haven’t completed.
I call BS on that said my Wisconsin friend, as he whipped out his phone.
Good God, I thought only millenials were Google dependent. A couple of minutes with whatever entry he found had him looking pretty sheepish.
As a general description, as the climate (temperature) went up, for reasons we cannot be certain of, sea levels changed by hundreds of feet, and the climate changed frequently, drastically, in the temperate regions of North America, moving from permanent winter to the variable but generally benign climate we see today. And whatever the forces are that caused this variability, which in some decades gives us agriculture in Greenland, and in others gives us a year of no summer (OK a volcano, but I was rolling) in Massachussets.
And we really don’t know whether the glaciers are still melting, which would be a continuation of a 20,000 year natural process, or perhaps Baffin island is the seed from which the next sheet will grow again, and Canada will truly be the great white north.
The change from being under a glacier to being in the corn belt dwarfs anything we think is happening in the moment due to our influence….and if our most common state is being under a glacier, a little extra warming might be OK?
I don’t claim to have changed a mind, but I might have opened one. The key was understanding that the ice age was not millions of years ago, and the transition form an ice age to today’s climate occurred at least partially within recorded history, and is sufficiently recent that glacial remnants still exist. If they are melting, it is part of a natural process that has been underway for 20,000 years, not a recent change to a static past.
Three takeaways. An “educated” group of people had no clue that glaciers reached into the US, that the last melt started a mere 20,000 years ago, and that the last of the process can be observed today.
Talking about a town in Ohio got through the defenses by not using the word “climate”. For what it’s worth.
130
Thought I read somewhere that many of the glaciers in the U.S. were quite young, around only 2000 years. Have I got that wrong? Also thought that globally, a lot of glaciers were only 7000 years old, having melted and re-formed since the Younger Dryas.
10
Huge, but in a really good way.
Back in 2007 my wife and I spent a week in the centre of New York and walked through Central park.
Since then I’ve been trying to imagine how it was possible to amass almost a mile deep ice field there.
Incredible, and that was the 4th iteration of the event that has occurred every 100,000 years or so.
Then I think of my home town and imagine the Aborigines living a further 19 km off the current shorelines.
At that time the oceans were down 125 metres.
I suspect that there are a lot of lost civilisations out there and that perhaps the likes of Gobleki Tepi indicate how keen they were keen to get away from the rising water.
Interesting.
KK
10
I do. I actually paid attention in Geology class. But isn’t it broader than that, referring to the debris field at the foot of a receding river as well? No, maybe not. Memory fades after so many years.
20
But I figure I’m OK as long as no one is calling me a Moraine.
10
That is good! I can use that in my discussions, err, heated arguments with warmists.
Thanks, Richard.
00
And you think you’re confused. KK, my head rolled off under the desk a few seconds ago and is now hiding under the waste basket.
I think you left off a few dozen question marks?
10
Greetings from wet, windy Cumbria! What’s new? We are hoping to have lunch in our favourite Northern Lakes inn. How are you all DownUnder.
70
Question mark missed while distracted by ‘phone call that is probably a scam….disgusting to asail an ill person like that.
30
Greetings Annie,
Keep warm.
30
Greetings Annie from sunny Nerja, Espana.
Warm, bright shiny day, slight zephyr drifting up from the Med., flat sea. Lovely.
40
Hello Annie,
When I visited Cumbria a few years ago, I visited the Ruskin Museum in Coniston.
There I saw the wreck of Donald Campbell’s record breaking speedboat the Bluebird K7. That lead to a short term obsession with the Bluebird K7 and what might have gone wrong to cause his fatal crash. I almost wrote a short story about it at the time. I think the conditions are somewhat similar to aircraft stability.
Coniston water is beautiful, despite some sad history.
50
Peter C, I think the Bluebird has been restored to be able to go again, but I haven’t followed it up.
Thank you for greetings from DownUnder. We had a very pleasant and tasty lunch at the Kirkstile Inn near Loweswater…a favourite place for us. We usually make our way there after a walk around Crummock Water (and Buttermere on occasion) but the weather was a bit lively today. I have never seen the carpark empty before! There were still walkers and a cyclist around. The wind is moderating now and we have had glimpses of sun.
The countryside is very green and lush and a lot of trees still have plenty of green leaves, unlike 1990 when they looked very brown.
Enjoy Espana Sceptical Sam. It is still mild here Beththeserf.
Not too much time left here. I dread to think of the length of the grass back home! A friend volunteered to cut it but hadn’t used a mower like ours much. Time will tell!
20
Back to 5 degrees in Melbourne after 34 degrees in Darwin yesterday.
10
What’s the weather like in the Lakes District in September? Plan to go there for some walking, and thought September might be a good time for that activity.
10
The Lake District can be very variable but September is usually pleasant, not too hot. It was lovely in May too. Nothing is guaranteed however! It is a wonderful place for walking and hiking. The northern lakes are less busy with tourists but just as beautiful. Perhaps I shouldn’t give too many secrets away.
The same goes for the Cotswolds; there are areas off the beaten track but still within the AONB.
00
Thanks Annie. Plan to walk around Derwent Water. Haven’t been there yet so am looking forward to the visit.
10
My legs still shake at the memory of walking Striding Edge in a distant youth !
Manly beach is a much more relaxing , warm , stroll these days.
20
.
Skeptical Sheldon’s perplexing perspective on global warming.
Part zero – READ THIS ONE FIRST.
Some nice Alarmist (is there any other kind?), has informed me, that I left a bit out of my last comment on global warming. They threw a brick through my window, wrapped in a note. The note said,
“You left a bit out of your last comment on global warming, you bleedin’ idiot. Slowdowns are stupid, and so are you. You don’t have any science skills, and you are a crank. P.S. This note was NOT written by jgnfld.”
I would like to know what sort of a person, would write a note like that. Nobody uses the word “bleedin'” any more. It is so 1970’s. And what sort of a name is “jgnfld”? It doesn’t even have any vowels.
Where I live, we speak the Queen’s English. You have to spell it with a capital “E”, because it belongs to the Queen. Even though it belongs to the Queen, she is a nice lady, and she lets us use it whenever we like.
Americans are jealous of us, because they don’t have a queen. They just have Donald Trump. I overheard 2 Americans down at the pub, the other night. One of them reckoned that Donald Trump doesn’t even speak english.
I would like to help Americans to be happier, so I have worked out a plan (I like to help people). Write a nice letter to the Queen, asking to rejoin the Commonwealth. You used to belong, why did you leave? Anyway, Commonwealth countries don’t have a President, they have a Prime Minister. Bingo, your biggest problem is gone.
Sorry for saying the word “Bingo”. Sheldon Cooper from The Big Bang theory has taken out a court order, to stop me from saying “Bazinga”. But I found a loophole. If I put it in double quotes, then I can still say it. That is easy when I am writing it, but it gets a bit tiresome, when I have to say “double quotes, Bazinga, double quotes”. That is why I am starting to use the word “Bingo”.
Anyway, when I found out that Alarmists thought that I had left a bit out of my last comment on global warming, I checked. I didn’t leave it out. Because global warming contour maps have 3.5 dimensions (more about that later), people who are not used to them, miss the extra 0.5 of a dimension. So it appears to them, as if I have left something out.
Don’t worry, I will repeat it for you, now.
I contacted Jo at joannenova.com.au, to see if I could time travel a comment, back before my first comment. So that you would read it first. But she said that they were on an old version of WordPress, that didn’t support time travel. So I have put a big comment at the top of this comment, telling you to read this one first. Sorry for SHOUTING, but it is important.
The bit that you missed, explains how you can get 45 warming rates, out of a temperature series with only 10 temperatures.
Imagine that you have temperatures for 10 months, A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J.
You can work out the warming rate from A to B.
And B to C.
And C to D.
And D to E.
And E to F.
And F to G.
And G to H.
And H to I.
And I to J.
There are 9 date ranges of length 1 month.
Then you can work out the warming rate from A to C.
And B to D.
And C to E.
And D to F.
And E to G.
And F to H.
And G to I.
And H to J.
There are 8 date ranges of length 2 months.
Then you can work out the warming rate from A to D.
And B to E.
And C to F.
And D to G.
And E to H.
And F to I.
And G to J.
There are 7 date ranges of length 3 months.
Then you can work out the warming rate from A to E.
And B to F.
And C to G.
And D to H.
And E to I.
And F to J.
There are 6 date ranges of length 4 months.
Then you can work out the warming rate from A to F.
And B to G.
And C to H.
And D to I.
And E to J.
There are 5 date ranges of length 5 months.
Then you can work out the warming rate from A to G.
And B to H.
And C to I.
And D to J.
There are 4 date ranges of length 6 months.
Then you can work out the warming rate from A to H.
And B to I.
And C to J.
There are 3 date ranges of length 7 months.
Then you can work out the warming rate from A to I.
And B to J.
There are 2 date ranges of length 8 months.
Then you can work out the warming rate from A to J.
There is only 1 date ranges of length 9 months.
==========
Notice how 9 + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 45
Remember that formula, that I told you last time (I mean next time, time travel is so confusing).
If you have X temperatures in a temperature series, then the number of warming rates is,
(X) * (X – 1) / 2
We just worked out the number of warming rates for 10 temperatures (or months), and it was 45
Well, (10) * (10 – 1) / 2 = 45
The universe is in balance, and this proves that global warming contour maps are correct.
==========
Now, I typed that last section very slowly, so that you would be able to keep up. But I am going to speed up now, so that we can cover more.
If you have trouble understanding what I am saying, please put your hand up. This will make blood rush to your brain, and it will work faster.
In my next comment (or my previous comment, if Jo upgrades to a newer version of WordPress, which supports time travelling comments), I will explain why global warming contour maps have 3.5 dimensions. If you have a fear of more than 3 dimensions, please bring a support person.
==========
Just before I finish, I am going to let you know one of the most closely guarded secrets about global warming.
Don’t tell anybody that I told you this.
The reason that Alarmists only allow there to be a single warming rate, for the date range 1970 to 2018, is so that nobody can claim that there was a slowdown.
To have a slowdown, you need to have at least 2 warming rates. By limiting global warming to one warming rate, there can’t be a slowdown.
Brilliant. I wish that I had thought of that.
21
Huge.
?
30
Bleedin huge.
40
Definitely jgnfld man.
20
I was good until you sped up.
I put my hand up and, “bingo”, I was back to speed.
Could you do it again please, so that I can try it while holding up my other hand?
It does work with either hand, doesn’t it?
60
When you type with your right hand in the air you are likely to not hit the “reply” button.
Hence the above comment belongs at 5.1.
I think it must be the Sun.
20
.
Sceptical Sam,
it depends on whether you are left, or right, handed.
Putting both hands up is best, but it is difficult to type on the keyboard.
Once you have mastered 3.5 dimensional global warming contour maps, you can put both hands up, type on the keyboard, and drink a cup of coffee, all at the same time.
41
Sheldon,
Thanks for the encouragement. I can inform you that, due to your insight, and without deceit, I’ve discovered ambidexterity. That means I am half way there already.
Juggling the plastic straw with the tongue, drinking and typing with it is another ambidextrous skill I’m now working on. The Sangre de Toro 2015 is a real help, although the keyboard is complaining.
40
I can type with both hands up just fine but the Dictaphone can be a bit of a handful.
20
The AMO is predicted to enter its cool phase very soon, in July it reached its lowest value since 1950.
‘Is the AMO a natural phenomenon, or is it related to global warming?
‘Instruments have observed AMO cycles only for the last 150 years, not long enough to conclusively answer this question. However, studies of paleoclimate proxies, such as tree rings and ice cores, have shown that oscillations similar to those observed instrumentally have been occurring for at least the last millennium. This is clearly longer than modern man has been affecting climate, so the AMO is probably a natural climate oscillation.’
OSS
50
AMO influenced by sun.
“There is intrinsic positive correlation between AMO and solar activity. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among ocean modes of variability. Strong volcanic eruptions during the Maunder Minimum resulted into change of strength and sign (positive to negative) in relationship between AMO and solar activity.
‘Thus, we posit that strong volcanic eruptions coinciding with a prolonged solar minimum period (multi-decadal) can change the strength as well as the nature of relationship between AMO and solar activity. The relationship between AMO and solar activity is non-stationary which could be partly due to volcanic eruptions and complex interaction of PDO and Niño3 with AMO, and external forcings.”
Malik, A., Brönnimann, S., & Perona, P. (2017). Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability. Climate dynamics, 1-22.
50
Here are a couple of notable points from a talk given by a Pacific Hydro renewables enthusiast Electrical Engineer, Kate Summers. Here is her take on hydro turbines when integrated with renewables, but presumably this is equally applicable to coal/gas turbines:
And some of the comments are enlightening too:
Comment # 9 Ben:
“Synchronous generator (steam, gas, hydro) governors have been detuned (the National Electricity Rule deadbands) so that they do not control frequency as tightly as they can do.”
Comment #10 RobK:
“This goes in hand with extra “ride through” settings on wind farms so they dont drop-off so quickly when frequency excursions occur. This was a result of report into the SA blackout due to the storm front. This fixes one problem but potentially exacerbates others.”
Comment #15 Dr Faustus:
“It’s the unintended consequence one might expect from a ‘market’ created by experts out of policy.”
Comment #24 Tezza:
“AGL is reportedly considering re-purposing Liddell’s generators as synchronous condensers. As I understand it, this would in effect use electricity to spin the generators and turbines to continue their contribution of inertia to the stability of the grid – a FCAS that AGL would charge us for. Like Snowy 2.0, they would leave the system with less electricity for consumers.”
Comment #38 by Mundi:
“In QLD engineers are required to be registered and in most states CP Eng is a defacto standard.
As part of having that qualification you have to agree to abide by ethics policies. In the ethics policy it requires engineers to use “sustainable” outcomes, and they are not allowed to “compromise the ability of future life to enjoy the same or better environment as currently enjoyed”.
This is starting to be actually enforced to the point where if you work on a project that isn’t carbon neutral, you risk being stripped as a practicing engineer. This is already happened [sic] to engineers working on the coal plants that NSW sold. Luckily in NSW there is no regulation requiring registration so they just tell EA to go jump. But in QLD engineers are getting into a tough spot. Victoristan is following QLD and regulating engineers.”
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2018/09/18/critical-problems-in-the-integrated-power-grid/
70
Well I guess its one way of forcing qualified people to leave Australia, so it becomes New North Korea…..
It will all end in tears, my money is on possible a “Nicolae Ceausescu outcome” for those bureaucrats responsible.
The Nuremberg Defence wont wash any more.
The next 20 years will be critical. Buy a gennie…..
40
BTW CP Eng = ‘Chartered Professional Engineer’
50
CP Eng is not a technical “qualification” in the way that a Phd or such is the result of study and learning .
CP Eng is simply a membership of an organisation , in the same way being a member of your local RSL club.
Its a bit like a lesser version of the Masons…a relic of former glory days of real “Engineers” who built the foundations of countries and empires..
10
They talk about fluctuating voltage but isn’t that an indication of being uninformed? It is frequency that is controlled.
Freq. “Shock” can be reduced by motor/generators with big flywheels. But this sounds bogus to me. The NQ grid suffers greatly from variable load caused by the drag lines in the coal fields. There was [is still?] such a generator that I think was called a “cyclone generator” in the Moranbah sub station. It didn’t do much but I spent a lot of time in the Kareeya hydro station and I never heard heard any suggestion that maintaining freq. control was a problem.
40
Too many people who should know better, think batteries and electronics will save the day….until you bit by bit dismantle their view of the world by explaining the engineering realities.
61
Hanrahan
Freq. “Shock” can be reduced by motor/generators with big flywheels.
IMO …
The total grid system overall has the highest inertia, local grid spurs have lower overall inertial potential.
So the “Shock” problem is a consequence of the time element — the more inertia in the big flywheels (and so more resistance to change) the longer the motor/generators with those big flywheels will lead (or lag) the local grid, incurring poor power-factor figures over the time it takes to get to the new frequency (speed).
During this transition period the power-factor (PF) may improve (unlikely), or (more likely) deteriorate the local grid’s performance (a rise in local neutral→earth and reactive currents) with increased potential for anomalous safety trips operation.
This is why frequency and voltage must be kept within tight limits to protect against reactive currents (caused by poorly synchronized generation coming on line, or large reactive loads) circulating around the grid system. Excessive speed anomalies of motor/generators are reactive loads, excessive reactive loading will cause anomalous voltage/current variations, protective trip operations.
Loosening the frequency control will ensure that reactive loading (and consequential transmission line loss due to increased PF) will be more of a problem across the whole grid system.
I may be wrong on this as it has been more than a decade since I worked on such systems, so feel free to correct me.
50
When the Moranbah mine started to operate there were power fluctuations in Mackay when the draglines operated. This was rectified by the installation of a system of stabilizing equipment that was essentially a rotating mass accelerated when power was not being used by the dragline and its stored energy used to generate electricity to fed back into the grid to balance a heavy demand on the grid when the dragline needed a large demand. This stabilised the power in Mackay to the point that the fluctuations were essentially invisible.
10
A very good documentary video about mountain top coal mining In Kentucky, I like the film maker and narrator who put this together. He has done a great job. I also like the drag line machine!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF74cHwuRU4
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If you want to see the best array of draglines in the world then just take a trip through the Bowen Basin (Central Queensland). The Kentucky machines are babies by comparison.
20
Overburden truck loading a bit slow. Rio load their 200+ tonne iron ore trucks in around 2 mins 40 secs.
00
When the illustrious ALP does its sums on gender equality, which side of the ledger is Penny Wong counted?
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Right down the centre.
30
According to various groups there are dozens of gender options. So the centre whatever that is might not be correct 🙂
20
As far as centrists go you definitely have the Wong person there……
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Ah yes, Arthur Calwell it was: two wongs don’t make a white
00
a shout-out to TonyfromOz – anyone heard from him? hope he’s settling into his new home and getting back online!
panic has set in, not that you would know any of this from the Australian MSM:
18 Sept: Gateway Pundit: CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS? Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff and Warner DEMAND DOJ-FBI Defy Trump Declassification Order
by Cassandra Fairbanks
In a shocking letter intended to undermine the President, and his authority over the Executive Branch, multiple high ranking Democrats sent a letter ordering intelligence agencies to ignore Trump’s order to declassify numerous documents involving the Russia investigation until consulting with Congress.
LETTER
The intelligence agencies serve at the pleasure of the president — and this clearly crosses the line separating the branches of government.
The letter was signed by Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Senator Mark Warner, and Senator Charles Schumer and sent to Director Coats, Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein and Director Wray.
“Your agencies’ review, and any communication with the White House on the substance of the material, should not proceed further until you have briefed the Gang of Eight in person,” the letter orders.
DC-based lawyer Will Chamberlain called the letter a constitutional crisis and urged the GOP to consider taking action against the lawmakers who signed.
“You are equal branches of government, but they’re not subordinate to you,” Chamberlain said of the letter signers. “I’m sorry — President Trump has not issued a request to the intelligence agencies that they declassify this information, he has issued an order.”…READ ON
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/09/consitutional-crisis-pelosi-schumer-schiff-and-warner-demand-doj-fbi-defy-president-trump/
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Tony is in safe hands.
He is in South East Queensland.
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toorightmate –
good to hear. hope we see him back here soon.
30
The 3rd para of the letter is particularly interesting when it records an assurance previously given:
”On June 27, 2018, we wrote again to memorialize the verbal assurance you provided us that DOJ and FBI would not provide the White House or any of the President’s attorneys with access to sensitive information briefed to a small group of designated Members”.
Under what power is the DOJ or the FBI able to refuse the President?
It looks like treason to me. Heads should be lopped.
40
so fitting he’s now an MSNBC commentator:
18 Sept: Washington Examiner: Naomi Lim: John Brennan hopes ‘individuals of conscience’ will block Trump’s declassification order
Former CIA Director John Brennan hopes “individuals of conscience” will stymie President Trump’s order to declassify Justice Department and FBI documents related to the federal Russia investigation.
“A number of individuals are trying to protect Mr. Trump and abusing their authorities and their powers, whether it be in Congress or within the executive branch,” Brennan said Tuesday during an interview with MSNBC…
The move was an attempt to “arbitrarily, capriciously, and recklessly” disclose facts discrediting agencies investigating him for “craven political purposes,” Brennan said. He added that foreign adversaries may obtain insight about U.S. sources and methods through the release.
“If Mr. Trump and the White House does not relent, well then I think they have some decisions to make, whether or not they are going to just not follow that direction and be fired, or to resign,” Brennan said, name-checking FBI Director Christopher Wray, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein…
Brennan was stripped of his security clearance by Trump in August for “erratic” behavior. Brennan, an MSNBC commentator, has used his public platform to criticize Trump as being “abnormal…
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/john-brennan-hopes-individuals-of-conscience-will-block-trumps-declassification-order
not too long ago, the “liberal” media had a very different view of Brennan:
31 Jul 2014: Guardian: CIA director John Brennan lied to you and to the Senate. Fire him
by Trevor Timm
Private apologies are not enough for a defender of torture, the architect of America’s drone program and the most talented liar in Washington. The nation’s top spy needs to go
Plus: CIA admits to spying on Senate staffers
“The facts will come out,” Brennan told NBC News in March after Senator Dianne Feinstein issued a blistering condemnation of the CIA on the Senate floor, accusing his agency of hacking into the computers used by her intelligence committee’s staffers. “Let me assure you the CIA was in no way spying on [the committee] or the Senate,” he said.
After the CIA inspector general’s report completely contradicted Brennan’s statements, it now appears Brennan was forced to privately apologize to intelligence committee chairs in a “tense” meeting earlier this week. Other Senators on Thursday pushed for Brennan to publicly apologize and called for an independent investigation…
Lest we forget, Brennan’s most recent false statement is not his first James Clapper-esque experiment in misinformation. The nation’s top spy is, in fact, a proficient and skilled liar…
This is not the type of guy who is going to resign because of some report he doesn’t like; this is the type of spy who apologizes even though he’s not sorry, who lies because he doesn’t like to tell the truth.
It’s time for Barack Obama to fire John Brennan.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/31/cia-director-john-brennan-lied-senate
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Phew!
Thank heavens all this is (almost) over.
Tony.
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It’s a horrible business, moving house. We’ve done it far too often, including moving between different countries. Best wishes for you in your new homw TonyfromOz. 🙂
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Great to hear from you Tony, don’t do your back in like I always do when moving!
40
Missed you during the NEG discussions Tony.
40
Missed you, Tony, full stop.
The alarmists never sleep it seems, we need you!
00
great to hear from you Tony.
u will probably need a rest now.
but drop in here, where you are needed, whenever possible.
best wishes.
00
John Solomon visits the President in the Oval Office:
VIDEO: 3mins34secs: 18 Sept: The Hill: EXCLUSIVE: Trump says exposing ‘corrupt’ FBI probe could be ‘crowning achievement’ of presidency
By John Solomon and Buck Sexton
President Trump in an exclusive interview with Hill.TV said Tuesday he ordered the release of classified documents in the Russia collusion case to show the public the FBI probe started as a “hoax,” and that exposing it could become one of the “crowning achievements” of his presidency.
“What we’ve done is a great service to the country, really,” Trump said in a 45-minute, wide-ranging interview in the Oval Office…
He criticizing the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court’s approval of the warrant that authorized surveillance of Carter Page, a low-level Trump campaign aide, toward the end of the 2016 election, suggesting the FBI misled the court.
“They know this is one of the great scandals in the history of our country because basically what they did is, they used Carter Page, who nobody even knew, who I feel very badly for, I think he’s been treated very badly. They used Carter Page as a foil in order to surveil a candidate for the presidency of the United States.”…
In the end, he said, his goal was to let the public decide by seeing the documents that have been kept secret for more than two years. “All I want to do is be transparent,” he said.
Asked what he thought the outcome of his long-running fight with the FBI, the president said: “I hope to be able put this up as one of my crowning achievements that I was able to … expose something that is truly a cancer in our country.”
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/407335-exclusive-trump-says-exposing-corrupt-fbi-probe-could-be-crowning-achievement
on Hannity, Solomon begins with how the President couldn’t be calmer, the Admin couldn’t be more functional…says it’s so different from what you read in the other media orgs, etc…
18 Sept: Youtube: 3:54 – Hannity: John Solomon previews Trump’s interview with ‘The Hill’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=vN3x50I_GA4
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a must-read:
18 Sept: Fox News: Gregg Jarrett: If Rod Rosenstein defies Trump’s order to declassify documents, he should be fired
The records have long been sought by Congress under lawful subpoenas. Yet, the FBI and Department of Justice have consistently obstructed the release of these materials under the guise of “classified” secrets. This is a convenient alibi all too frequently employed to cover-up wrongdoing and abuse of authority by those we entrust to uphold the law.
These days, overzealous government officials automatically designate nearly all matters as national security risks, regardless of whether they truly are.
Whenever the FBI orders Chinese take-out, it is labeled “top secret” because… you know… it involves the Chinese. False classification has reached absurd proportions.
How do we know? Every time information is declassified we learn that the material should never have been classified to begin with. It was nothing more than a subterfuge. Here are two recent examples…READ ALL
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/09/18/gregg-jarrett-if-rod-rosenstein-defies-trumps-order-to-declassify-documents-should-be-fired.html
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why does it seem this piece is being published now because Trump has ordered the declassification of Spygate documents?
19 Sept: Guardian: ‘Trumpwashing’: the danger of turning the Republican resistance into liberal heroes
As figures once reviled by the left are hailed for their opposition to Trump, critics warn against forgetting the past
by David Smith in Washington
Not so long ago, the idea of liberals hankering nostalgically for Bush, hanging on Kissinger’s words or cheering assertions of American exceptionalism would have been unthinkable. Likewise the idea of rooting for the rightwing attorney general Jeff Sessions, the former FBI director and registered Republican Robert Mueller, and other mandarins of the so-called “deep state”. Yet old certainties have been shaken, roles reversed and loyalties scrambled by Trump’s profoundly unorthodox presidency.
According to Dan Kovalik, a human rights and labour lawyer and adjunct law professor at the University of Pittsburgh, the liberal left was already in ideological confusion when Trump turbo-charged the process. “In short, liberals have decided that ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’, especially when ‘my enemy’ is Donald J Trump,” he wrote via email.
“And so, bizarrely, liberals have decided that the CIA and FBI – despite their well-known history of suppressing civil liberties and civil rights in this country and abroad – are now noble institutions which should be believed and respected. This is because the CIA and FBI have largely taken an oppositional stance towards Trump.”…
Liberals’ default scepticism about the FBI, CIA and NSA [National Security Agency] has also taken a hit. John Brennan, the director of the CIA under Obama – who approved 542 drone strikes that killed 3,797 people in non-battlefield areas where US forces were not directly engaged including Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia – is now an unlikely hero of the resistance. When Brennan was recently interviewed on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher, the otherwise caustic, iconoclastic comedian hailed him as “a true American patriot”, adding: “I know how hard professionals here in the intelligence community work to try keeping this country strong and safe.”…
But Kurt Bardella, a columnist who last year switched allegiance from the Republican to Democratic party, suggested that Brennan and his peers have a legitimate role to play in the anti-Trump resistance. He said: “We have a president who will lie to anybody and has sided with Vladimir Putin against his own intelligence community as these adversaries are running campaigns against our country. The intelligence community is the last barrier to protect us against these global threats and the person in charge disregards them. The underlying good of this country supercedes any previous political alignments.”
It is this view that unites people of many political stripes around the special counsel investigation. Jeremy Varon, a history professor at the New School in New York and leading member of Witness Against Torture, a group seeking to close the Guantanamo Bay prison, believes Mueller’s work is vital to accountability and the rule of law.
“Trump has created an alliance of different groups of different ideologies who have a shared interest in ***protecting democratic norms,” he said…READ ALL
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/19/trumpwashing-republican-resistance-trump-dangers-history
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Thanks Pat.
Yes. Read it all.
10
“New climate crystal ball: “Mummified penguins””
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/09/19/new-climate-crystal-ball-mummified-penguins/
Check ” Pat Frank
September 19, 2018 at 11:46 am ”
And subsequent comment – which question the C14 stats used
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Sounds like Hele.
‘Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor will consider a plan to upgrade the efficiency of coal-fired power stations.’ Oz
40
Sounds good. Now all we have to hear from him is a real commitment.
30
Maybe he awaits instructions from Manhattan, New York, where the Black Hand leader is right now?
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Is it my imagination or have the adverts about AGL “getting out of coal” suddenly stopped now Vesey is gone? and Turnbull is on shopping leave in NYC.
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Not your imagination. It happened when the CEO resigned after Turnbull was booted out. The plan by those fools to close down our coal fired power stations I believe has been halted. Of course it’s not lal over yet. Morrison now needs to convince the voters to support his party and not let Shorten be our next PM. He can do it easily on the right kind of energy policy plus the re-education of the public that ALP+Greens means death to Australia’s economy through much higher power prices.
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For discussion
“Drought – cause or symptom – an urgent rethink – the big picture ”
https://www.beefcentral.com/news/opinion/drought-policy-why-an-urgent-nationwide-rethink-is-needed/
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One major step forward would be to stop squandering money on UN agendas and direct our monies to nation building projects starting with building more dams around the country, including taking back national parks where dam sites were identified and then locked up: “preserved for future generations”.
The LNP had a plan laid out before the 2013 federal election to extend the WA Ord River Irrigation Area across Northern Australia through the NT and NQ. PM Abbott and Premier of Queensland Newman organised to successfully repeal the Labor Wild Rivers legislation that banned dams and irrigation pumping from the major rivers that are usually in flood during the wet season months.
The CSIRO has identified potential irrigation farmland equivalent to Western Europe in area in Australia’s north. The construction of dams and other infrastructure, roads, rail and airports, and new towns, would exceed the Snowy Mountains Scheme in magnitude and the economic benefits would be enormous. And the long term future export earnings too.
The federal government keeps on claiming that immigration is good for the economy. Is it really? I agree that migrants who are willing to work and for whom there are suitable jobs available, is good for our nation. But first before more people we need to catch up with water supplies, affordable and reliable electricity generators and all the services, hospitals, schools etc., that governments are supposed to provide and maintain for the citizens and visitors.
A dam building national project is long overdue but was part of the northern irrigation area expansion planning.
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I thought that lack of rainfall historically occurred in colder rather than warmer climatic periods. A few good comments in that article, especially related to the need to pipe more water around our country, and perhaps farmers shouldn’t push out into marginal areas during the good years.
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The Bradfield Plan … for boosting the water supplies;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradfield_Scheme
10
Ord River Lake Argyle;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Argyle
I have been there a few times and it is impressive as are the irrigation area properties benefiting from the unlimited water supply topped up every wet season.
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And another solution for water conservation in crop farming;
https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-israeli-drips-did-for-the-world/
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Looks like the Bradfield plan made a few too many assumptions, but in general it still looks like a good idea. The same evaporation and cost issues were raised when it was suggested that the Fitzroy River in WA’s north be dammed and the water sent to Perth via a lined-wall canal. Yet when in Phoenix, I noted that they were dependent on canal water, I presume from the Colarado River which was quite a distance away.
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Yes, but surely pipelines are the best way to move water over long distances, as already done in various parts of country Australia.
Maybe some small nuclear powered generators to provide electricity for the pumps, like the Russian barge mounted units.
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Agree, they are, but apparently they cost a heck of a lot more than lined canals.
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okay, see https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/13/48-ways-to-get-sent-to-a-chinese-concentration-camp/
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literature professors Abdukerim Rahman (in his 70s), Rahile Dawut, Azat Sultan and Gheyretjan Osman were detained in January, while former language professor Arslan Abdulla was arrested later….(A staffer at Xinjiang U.) was unable to provide information about whether the professors are being held together or whether it was university’s Disciplinary Department or Police Department that handled their cases.
When asked why the professors were detained the staffer said that the accusations against them “are all the same, but I don’t know the reasons for their arrests.” She refused to disclose who had replaced the professors or whether their cases were being treated as “state security” matters. http://unpo.org/article/21
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So you know how it works in the case of ANY people wanting to be free:
China’s persecution against the Uyghurs living within the so-called Xinjiang Autonomous Region has caused many to flee the country. However, neighbouring countries are now currying Chinese economic favour by participating in alleged anti-terrorist cooperation that targets the Uyghur diaspora. As a result, Uyghurs in Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and other nations are feeling increasingly unsafe, a situation only worsened by unexplained disappearances, arbitrary arrests by local authorities and offers to spy on their communities for China. http://unpo.org/article/21041
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Jeez I hate software companies.
I just updated MacOS and now I cab’t get any ad blocker to work and I’ve been forced back to google not duckduckgo. They don’t warn you that they will change these things.
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I just updated my MacBook Air to MacOS High Sierra and my ABP blocker still works.
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The partnership continues, Union Labor Greens Liberals and their activist arm GetUp;
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/getups-liberal-mate/news-story/3cd0e875b32384ddcd18155176c49fbe
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too o/t for jo’s new thread:
19 Sept: TruePundit: Mueller Team Conducted Meetings with MSM Reporters in Restaurants, Bars, Starbucks
by Thomas Paine
Recently released emails from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office show his team members cavorting with mainstream media reporters outside the office.
Peter Carr is the chief spokesman for Mueller’s team. Emails obtained from the Special Counsel and released Tuesday by Freedom Watch reveal Carr’s out-of-the-office rendezvous and text conversations with the media elite in D.C.
Likewise, Carr admits he is not allowed to use his private cell phone in the office but freely communicates with reporters off hours and weekends on his iPhone, according to texts. But Carr’s cell phone is not listed as an official contact number for the Special Counsel’s media relations office. And according to texts, Carr has only divulged the number to select media clientele.
And is his phone secure? Is discussing details about Mueller’s sensitive and classified Trump investigation in a Starbucks secure?…
But Carr’s offsite meetings with media elite are raising eyebrows. Add to the fact Carr also conducted private calls with top media players, according to the released emails. Yet there are no transcripts of Carr’s conversations with the New York Times, Politico, the Washington Post and many others. And there are no records pinpointing how many private meetings the Special Counsel team had with Big Media. Or what was discussed.
Coincidentally, the news organizations linked to the private sit downs with the Mueller team are the same ones that have published leaked Intel and scoops from Mueller’s grand juries…
(Judicial Watch’s Larry) Klayman commented on the “secret” media rendezvous Tuesday night on CrowdSource the Truth’s Patreon show where the Mueller email cache was unveiled. A segment from the full show is below.
VIDEO 17mins47secs
***The entire collection of emails that were turned over to Freedom Watch is available for ***DOWNLOAD HERE to investigate and share among citizens and citizen journalists…READ ALL
https://truepundit.com/internal-emails-texts-reveal-mueller-team-conducted-meetings-with-msm-reporters-in-restaurants-bars-starbucks/
19 Sept: GatewayPundit: SARA CARTER: DOJ/FBI Colluding to Defy Trump Declassification Order – Will Deliver Docs Next Week WITH REDACTIONS (VIDEO)
by Cristina Laila
“I’ve been told by sources that the documents will be turned over to the President next week. I hear that the FBI and the DOJ are redacting,” Sara Carter said. “What they’re gonna do is turn those documents over to the President and what they’re going to say is ‘now it’s up to you to declass’–I think they are going to figure ways to stall or maybe put pressure on the President,” Sara Carter continued.
Sara Carter explained that she spoke with multiple sources with top secret clearance who have reviewed the Carter Page FISA docs and there is nothing that will violate national security or give away sources and methods…
***VIDEO LOU DOBBS SHOW, WITH SARA CARTER 5MINS23SECS
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/09/sara-carter-doj-fbi-colluding-to-defy-trump-declassification-order-will-deliver-docs-next-week-with-redactions-video/
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the Steve Bannon movie. you need to give your name and email address in order to receive an “invite code” to watch it:
15 Sept: Western Journal: Makers of ‘Clinton Cash’ Release New Film ‘Trump @War’ – See It Free Through The Western Journal
Secondly, we’ve secured the rights to stream it for FREE to you, for a limited time…
Even more importantly, however, “Trump @War” shows how despite the unbelievable attacks against him, President Trump has delivered some amazing results that you wouldn’t know about if you only heard the news on Big Media. This movie shows them, and I encourage you to watch it, and share with anyone you think would be encouraged or surprised by the unbelievable story of the Trump presidency…
To get this exclusive and limited free streaming movie code, head to TrumpMovieNow.com right now…
https://www.westernjournal.com/clinton-cash-trump-war-western-journal/
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” Hold my chardonnay!”
It looks like Canadian governments are about to “regulate”[ie TAX] wood burning stoves and heaters. You’ve gotta be kiddin’, it’s not as if it ever gets cold there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iH1eVXa1Wwk
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How exactly can you “regulate” wood burning stoves and heaters?
Does the government put a padlock on them if you don’t pay your taxes?
Do you have to enter a password to open the front panel?
Do they send around stove inspectors like England has Television inspectors?
I do hope the local papers ridicule the idea like it deserves.
10
Climate change capitalism: the booming business of private firefighters – the Guardian
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For the history buffs, buy it now while it’s still available.
Humanity is sitting on a time bomb. If the vast majority of the world’s scientists are right, we have just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet’s climate system into a tail spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather:
https://www.fishpond.com.au/Movies/Inconvenient-Truth-Al-Gore/9324915065635?utm_source=email&utm_medium=product_specific&utm_content=Movies&utm_campaign=PS_Peace_Day_Movies_E15VM_Sep3_AU
The movie is dated 2007l So we’re all in midst of destruction all around us, right now. It’s happening.
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Are other Aussies a little concerned that the loudest public proponent of coal generation for our future ,…happens to be the least credible Public Personality currently in the country…..
…Clive Palmer !!
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The very same imbecile who voted against coal 5 years ago and towed Al Gore along with him.
Being an outright hypocrite is one of his finer points.
20
Tinnitus of Charybdis and Scylla screams,
I run, liver gnawed by Empusa careless wounds,
To the sweet innocent Medusa countenance observed.
For eternal stillness at infinity’s embrace,
Detach this ruined scrap and be reused.
10