JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Have noticed this Pressure broadening effect does not get mentioned much. It seems only logical that if the spectral lines get narrower with altitude that more of the re radiation from CO2 can find its way up than down. This due to the outer limits of radiation from the lower lines being wider than that which can be absorbed by the upper lines.
So while the re radiation can go in any direction from a point in the atmosphere, less of what goes up gets reabsorbed by the long cascade of band stop filters above than below.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1950ApJ…112..365S
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Arggh links with dots. Click here.
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Basically what you are saying is that energy does not flow against the temperature gradient.
Daytime surface temperature is say 20°C and space surrounding Earth is about Minus 272°C.
Delta, 292C°.
The energy yearns for its home: Deep Space.
KK
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“Basically what you are saying is that energy does not flow against the temperature gradient.”
More like not flowing against the pressure gradient. No those words don’t fit in my mouth.
Cold mirrors work. Try and stop one from working by cooling it.
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Interesting point about the spectral absobtion lines getting narrower as the pressure drops.
The atmospheric radiation window therefore is more wide open at higher altitudes!
The cold mirror analogy may be a bit misleading, since the “mirror” darkens with altitude and it wasn’t a mirror anyway.
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“The cold mirror analogy may be a bit misleading,”
Yes that is unrelated to the spectral line width. Only required to put a quick spanner in the “slayer” nonsense machine. A far lower level argument than comprehending how paths are spit into multiple directions by the resonant filtering of absorption and re radiation at different frequencies.
Am also convinced that convection can carry warm air up above the bulk of the CO2 so the IR from that heat is then trapped out. Combining this cooling effect of convection trapping out and the conventional trapping in only working where it is too cool for such convection results in a negative climate sensitivity. Some will struggle to understand that negative climate sensitivity theory!
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The backradiation theory is wrong.
Pressure doesnt affect absorption lines.
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You are right, what causes the line spread is temperature. The average kinetic energy (speed) of molecules is related to temperature. The Doppler effect means that the ir emission from a particular line will spread between the apparent frequency of a molecule moving away from the target to the apparent frequency of a molecule moving toward the target. The hotter the gas the broader the lines, this is why Mars has narrow lines and Venus has broad lines, the atmosphere on Venus is much hotter than that of Mars and there is more Doppler shift from fast moving CO2 molecules on Venus. Nothing to do with pressure.
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The “Doppler effect” would be symmetrical around a center frequency. Being damping akin to resistance in a tank circuit, pressure broadening shows a frequency shift. Thus the two can be distinguished and separated.
Pressure-Induced Shift and Broadening of 1510-1540-nm Acetylene Wavelength Calibration Lines
https://www.nist.gov/publications/pressure-induced-shift-and-broadening-1510-1540-nm-acetylene-wavelength-calibration
Mars has low pressure Venus has high pressure. What is the frequency shift?
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Yes, Actually Standard Slayer Nonsense. Negative Climate Sensitivity makes No Sense, except that observational evidence supports the concept.
Doug Cotton wrote a very good essay and compared the mean temperatures of arid (dry places) and wet (humid) places at equivalent latitudes. In every case the wet climate was cooler on average.
https://www.amazon.com/Why-Its-Carbon-Dioxide-After/dp/1478729228
Final Chapter
Ian Plimer has done much the same thing.
See his book; “Heaven and Earth”
Also Carl Brehmer.
https://principia-scientific.org/proven-negative-water-feedback-means-co2-climate-impact-irrelevant/
So I tend to agree that Climate Sensitivty is Negative. The problem is to develop a credible and persuasive alternative theory. Well Proven physical theories on radiation and heat transfer must be accepted (unless there is very good alternative evidence -so far lacking). None the less I think that the warmulists and even the Luke Warmers are looking through the telescope from the wrong end.
I think that combining;
1. IR from the ground heats the lowest Air,
2. Heating of the air near the ground leads to convection, and
3. Heat having been convected upward is “Trapped Out”
goes quite a way to an alternative theory. That’s for your “Trapped Out” contribution.
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Await reply!
I am in moderation. I think I know why but I cannot explain why because that will trigger more moderation.
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Well Peter, …ter know is something, knowledge bein’ preferable
ter ignorance. 🙂
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Peter C
Thank you for your thoughts and links on that.
In the various radiative balance charts about the net you can see wild large changes from chart to chart in the values for “latent heat” (Evapo-transpiration) and “Thermals”. It seems to be more like fudge correction than calculation.
I think Bill Johnston has also found anti-correlation between rainfall and temperature in Australian data. This would show a more rapid counter reaction.
Negative Climate Sensitivity makes No Sense.
It makes more sense if you consider the possibility of positive feedback acting not on the temperature but on the inherent negative feedback reference point.
If the natural negative feedback reference point is shifted up by positive feedback it can enhance the stability of negative feedback. So just as we see the logarithmic decline in theoretical CO2 sensitivity we see the natural negative and unnatural strong negative feedback reference point shift up by a reducing amount. This as the unnatural negative feed backs strengthen without logarithmic decay.
An example of strengthened negative feed back would be CO2 greening increasing the C.L.A.W. hypothesis DMS cloud feedback.
So just add CO2 to stabilise the climate.
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That too.
In the past warmers have taken one small part of the process, namely, that energy is radiated equally in all directions, rhetorically.
What they deliberately fail to add is that after making an assessment of which way to go it has only one pathway open.
And that isn’t back towards Earth.
Flying at normal passenger airline altitudes near 10 km, the temperature is routinely minus 38°C.
It’s just basic atomic physics.
KK
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Rhetorically was translated by “autocorrect” from the intended: spherically.
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“What they deliberately fail to add is that after making an assessment of which way to go it has only one pathway open.”
IR is EMR all paths are always open unless until it meets absorption, reflection or refraction.
No need to add anything.
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I didn’t read the paper.
This is, and always will be, about UV in and IR out.
Energy cannot move against the temperature gradient unless it has higher virtue.
UV passes through the atmosphere, Earthbound because it can.
IR moves outwards, with minor stopovers in clouds, because it has to.
Visible light, being less ferocious, was chosen by God to help us perceive what is around us because it’s easy on the eye.
Best not to look into mirrors.
No need to add anything else.
KK
22
KK most UV is absorbed by and thus directly heats the atmosphere. Surface UV varies a lot as both the sun and the atmospheric window vary.
Plants reject green because it is a wide part of the surface spectrum that made it through the window. They don’t need green for endothermic photosynthesis. So the green reflection is to keep them cool.
Stay cool. Reject green.
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Not sure what you’re saying here Siliggy?
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“Not sure what you’re saying here Siliggy?”
I agree.
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KK If you shine a bulb type conventional torchlight at a cold mirror you then see it with your warm eyes. Light has traveled from the warm bulb to your cooler eyes. It has also traveled from the cold mirror to your warmer eyes. The temperature of things made no difference.
Likewise when you look at a plant, green light has traveled to your warm eyes from the cold plant but it has absorbed the other colours from whatever illuminates it. So not hard to see the colour absorption range of the plant is what caused the paths to be different. Not the temperature.
That paper is about how the colour range absorbed by CO2 widens at lower altitude.
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The reason that Julius Caesar had mirrors invented was that he didn’t like looking in the pool out the back all the time.
He made sure, on advice from his technical crew, to only allow highly reflective material, silver, on the business surface.
Cleopatra later had glass covers invented so that the silver lasted longer between polishes.
Neither silver nor glass react inappropriately with visible light and refraction and reflection take very little energy from the system.
That’s why mirrors aren’t made of frozen CO2. CO2 traps too much energy.
KK
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Totally confused now Siliggy.
Cold Mirrors, Cold Plants, Green light, Warm eyes?
Anyway I do support the “Trapped Out” idea. See my reply above when it gets released from moderation.
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Just for KK,s entertainment. Not really anything to do with pressure broadening or negative sensitivity.
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Just to confuse matters, try http://notrickszone.com
Real-World Spectral Measurements Show The ‘Greenhouse Theory Is Wrong’ – ALL Gases Are GHGs
It restores quantum mechanics and thermodynamics back to where they belong. That alone should say that there is something in the paper.
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Some very good threads in the last week which produced a lot of enlightenment for me.
The behaviour of the Morrison team has cemented the concept that they are just going to dress up the status quo regarding the electricity rip off to give the appearance of actively working to bring prices down with No real action.
They intend leaving things exactly as they are: Nation Destroying.
The reason is the very obvious Money Flow.
The size of this scam would make any mafia boss envious.
How can this happen in a democracy when it will lead to a serious business burden and result in loss of competitiveness locally and internationally.
We have been taken for a ride by the labs and libs.
KK
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Yes, they are wide open to a minor party campaigning with the slogan “For higher electricity bills vote Liberal or Labor”
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Well, of course. Malcolm’s work is still not done. His plant, ScoMo, is rapidly exposing himself as a snake oil salesman.
When Shorten is PM, things will no doubt deteriorate further, especially as I reckon one of the first thing he’ll do is take a leaf out of his mate Bracks’ handbook and legislate for four year fixed terms. Our only real hope is if Cory and Pauline can get BOP in the Senate.
We’re in for a very rough ride for years before there can be a ‘correction’, while we look on with envy at the performance of the US. Sure, the Dems won the house, but not that well. Hey, I’m over 65. Do I still need a Green Card to relocate to the Rust Belt?
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Some interesting history from The Canberra Times Mon 3 Nov 1986
“Callis has proposed that the 11-year solar cycle that peaked in late 1979 and early 1980 is primarily responsible for the ozone destruction, although he believes the chlorofluorocarbons might have made a small contribution. The solar cycle, which Callis said was the second strongest in the past 250 years, bathed the earth in radiation, particles and magnetic fields that triggered the formation of increased amounts of nitrogen dioxide in the stratosphere, especially in middle latitudes of the southern hemisphere.”
“She reported by telephone from Antarctica last week that the sun was not likely to play a role in the formation of the hole, because nitrogen compounds had so far not been found there.”
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/130625583
My chemistry is bad. Help appreciated. Won’t ozone break down into O2 on its own? So what is more important would be the replacement rate? Being diamagnetic, ozone would be repelled from the magnetic pole. While what remains is bombarded by space particles guided there by the same field. Can these take it out?
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Siliggy:
The hypothesis goes that chlorofluorocarbons break down liberating chlorine, which then catalyses ozone breakdown.
There are a few quibbles with that “settled science”. Firstly the ozone hole was first detected in 1957 (although ignored for years until reanalysed). This was in the Antarctic only despite the vast proportion of CFCs being released in the northern hemisphere.
Secondly the usage of CFCs increased substantially from the late 1960’s, especially as spray cans switched from hand pumping to volatile solvent action, and the switch from flammable (low cost) hydrocarbons to CFCs.
To get around this it was necessary to invoke solid state reactions on the surface of (minute) ice crystals of various compositions.
Then they finally detected an ozone hole in the Arctic, but much smaller and shorter lived than the southern version. But that was alright as the Arctic isn’t as cold as the Antarctic (although why the surface temperature should be affecting stratospheric temperatures is something I haven’t seen).
Another reason is that the ozone hole has expanded and contracted from season to season, and year to year, despite us being told that its effects would last for hundreds of years. No-one has commented on when the ozone hole started and why. It may have been there all the time, even before CFCs were produced. Nor why the level of CFC113 has been steadily increasing up there despite the Montreal agreement, (without apparent effect).
On top of that the ozone ‘hole’ doesn’t actually exist, it is a temporary depletion in the amount of ozone present. Some short times the level fall 90% although at other times it is between 35-75%. Also note that the level of ozone doubled in the years before the hole.
The effect is claimed to be due to natural nitrogen dioxide being carried by winds into the Antarctic lower stratosphere where sunlight catalyses the liberation of chlorine from the particles of nitrogen dioxide ice, which it turn catalyses ozone breakdown. The effect fades away from early in summer, as the level of ozone recovers.
You will be impressed by knowing that a lot of computer modelling has been used for this.
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All interesting thanks Graeme No.3.
Still trying to figure if ozone is rock stable or will it break down to O2 easily on its own or with a little help from the sun.
EG two O3s become three O2s.
So i am really wondering if they see all the energy.
From this link below.
“To help keep track of what’s happening in the thermosphere, Mlynczak and colleagues recently introduced the “Thermosphere Climate Index” (TCI)–a number expressed in Watts that tells how much heat NO molecules are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (“Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (“Cold”).
“Right now, it is very low indeed,” says Mlynczak. “SABER is currently measuring 33 billion Watts of infrared power from NO. That’s 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle.”
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/
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Wahoo. I win today’s random moderation lottery.
Interesting to note from the link in it that they can measure “NO”.
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Hmmm still in moderation Graeme No.3.
Thanks for all that good info.
Here is a different link attempt.
THE CHILL OF SOLAR MINIMUM: http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=28&month=09&year=2018
Is the NO they see “nitrogen dioxide” if so the first main objection was valid.
What else can break down ozone?
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Tried again with a different link but that went into moderation as well.
Thanks Graeme.
Try searching “the chill of solar minimum” unless you are already familiar with it.
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Active seamounts on the ocean floor,
Add juvenile water, never there before.
To use abusive language is taboo,
Except the term ‘denier’ warmists spew.
Few folks who lived beside where glaciers flow,
Would rather see them come than see them go.
Roof solar panels push the voltage higher,
Than needed for supply or by supplier.
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“Exercising The Precautionary Principle”
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/11/exercising-the-precautionary-principle/
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ABC at it again , lessons we can learn from Cape Town water shortage .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-11/drought-put-cape-town-on-a-countdown-to-day-zero/10477538
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Remembrance Sunday today. There’ll be services all round, including Marysville (with the marathon going on too).
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Along Ballarat’s Avenue of Honor every name plate under every tree has a red poppy on it, amazing dedication.
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Just to elaborate on the Avenue of Honour,
The Ballarat Avenue of Honour is famous for being the first avenue of its kind in Australia (perhaps in the world) and the longest of its kind in the southern hemisphere. It incorporates the Ballarat Arch of Victory and extends for approximately 22 kilometres. In total, the trees represent 3912 Ballarat and district men and women who served in World War One – 528 of whom were killed in battle or died of wounds or disease.
The trees were planted in order of the soldiers enlistment along the Western Highway, consisting of 3,771 trees.
Most of the cost for the plantings was met by the Lucas Girls through the sale of dolls made from scraps they had salvaged at the Lucas Clothing Factory.
The complete story is at this link.
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I was impressed by this avenue many years ago Yonnie, not long after we first came to Australia. Also by the Shrine of Remembrance in Melbourne and the one in Canberra.
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What really amazed, horrified and impressed us was the huge number of men represented and the high proportion of the then relatively small population…appalling.
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Many from farming and rural types of employ, I was told the country boys were held in high regard for their ability to shoot and ride horses which makes sense but as history unraveled regardless of backgrounds it was the intangible Australian spirit that eventually won the day.
I noticed the Poppies in the early hours traveling for work and the gesture struck me so deeply I was unashamedly driven to tears at the thought of those names, those men whom are only remembered by those closest to their memories but forgotten by those that should be most grateful and take for granted the terror of facing ones mortality for the survival of those loved deepest.
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Tim Ball is chatting to Rowan Dean on Sky, beautiful stuff.
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One of the biggest misunderstanding about grid connected electricity supply, I see on many blogs, is the failure to appreciate that both the all consumer loads and all generators are effectively in parallel with each other.
This shows when people say that while the grid is maintained at 250V and their rinky-dink little solar generator is set to 256V, the rinky-dink little solar generator will be force the local (or national)grid voltage up.
NO! the main grid has hundreds of MW of capacity available, even a small local grid will often have many hundred times your output capacity to stop your tiny little solar set-up doing that!.
Remember they are all in parallel therefore everyone ‘sees’ the same voltage.
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“Remember they are all in parallel therefore everyone ‘sees’ the same voltage.”
Sort of but no.
With a singe phase house connection you may not be on the same circuit as your neighbor. Then line resistance is in series not parallel. so it separates Voltages into local areas.
A street with lots of solar could see a higher V than the next street with lots of load instead even when both are on the same phase and connected back to the same point.
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Explains why during the power outage in town the generator they hooked up wasn’t powering every house .
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Thats why putting it back into the grid from houses is a bad idea. Creats voltage instabilities. And it doesnt help the ‘unreliable’ cause one bit.
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Siliggy,
Hopefully the phases are balanced else you’ll have worse problems.
Effectively all the generators across each individual phase and all the consumer loads on each individual phase are in parallel on each individual phase. So remember that on each individual phase they are all in parallel therefore everyone ‘sees’ the same voltage on that individual phase.
Better?
(I didn’t want to muddy the issue by going that far into the minutia of 3 phase operation, load balancing, reactive loads, graded protection, line losses, etc., etc., and putting people off reading the basics.)
Basically I feel my original was better, and I feel you’re nit-picking 🙂 And therefore sort of but YES!
And no I don’t know how streets are wired in Australia, do they really swap phase between neighboring households? Sounds dangerous. But in a country were politicians and bureaucrats drive engineering choices I would not be surprised by anything.
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Ignore the red, FF.
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The model will be parallel loads of varied power factors, yes. With the voltage at each node depending on the line drop on each phase. The power factor ‘looking into’ a household system with a solar converter Im not sure of , something I might look up before I open my mouth..To drive power into the real part of the load at the terminals of the house then you require more voltage than the supply or no real current will flow outward.
30
Siliggy,
“Then line resistance is in series not parallel. so it separates Voltages into local areas.”
That sound like poor wiring standards to me.
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tom0mason
Many houses in Australia have all three phases connected. Where it runs past on the poles it is just an optional extra. It is those streets where they can balance the load by putting the single phase only houses evenly on each phase. Where i live it is not available but my son can run all his two or three phase equipment in his garrage just by plug it into the very standard three phase outlet.
That lines have resistance and that voltage drops occur across resistance is just how it is. One of those simple facts that can’t be pretended away.
Solar systems will cause the Voltage to be higher when the sun shines on their side of that resistance. This is ohms law. Can’t get any simpler.
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“That lines have resistance and that voltage drops occur across resistance is just how it is. One of those simple facts that can’t be pretended away.”
I agree and never disagreed that line losses happen, however your line “Then line resistance is in series not parallel. so it separates Voltages into local areas.” sounds like this is done by design not because of the the way line resistance works. I.e. to differentiate local areas by line loss. That (to me) is a poor design. I do not wish it away, I’m just saying that there may be better ways, and maybe not so expensive.
In other parts of the world things are done differently. For instance 3 phase availability is an exception to the rule outside industrial/commercial/rural areas and attracts higher costs.
In some parts of the world neighborhood substations are larger and are mounted on the ground with all wire interconnections from sub-substations to building, or from substations to these sub-substations being underground — the UK (a true gold plated system!) and many parts of urban Europe have such installation. The vast majority of substation distribution (below 3kV) wiring through a town or city is underground, and has proved to be extremely durable over many decades.
Supplies in urban areas tend to have substations (actually sub-substations as they usually receive/distribute at the 415/240volt 3 phase level) for a neighborhood, and tend to have whole or major parts of streets on one phase while other streets are on the other two phases. (Here’s an example of a local UK neighborhood substation – all wires underground, with many of these installations in a city. ) Overall the phases are balanced due to the planning of the urban area involving consultations with all utility suppliers. Many multistory apartments are supplied by 3 phase 415volt (sometimes above) distribution with a local 415/240 transformer on site. Single phase is only available in each residence.
The building of new and more electrically demanding structures often demand new substation(s) be installed and its requirement will be part of the planning process.
Similar set-ups as yours are only seen in industrial/commercial/rural areas where normally they have 3 phase availability. In smaller rural areas there often is only one 600/240volt or 415/240volt 3 phase substation to feed all of the area, often with transformers on poles as you have described. I have lived and worked with and on both systems.
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No, he is correct, wire has resistance, at maximum load the wire size will be selected so that the voltage at the start of the line next to the transformer is around the max allowed 253v and the remote end is above the minimum around 226 volts, so there is 26 volts of loss across the line. The resistance of the line is high enough such that a large solar array at the end of the line can force the remote end to greater than 253 volts without causing an overvoltage at the transformer end being absorbed by houses in between. Also the voltage at the transformer is set higher than the nominal voltage, it’s possible that if you are near the transformer on a that there isn’t enough margin to allow the inverter to inject current into the line where the inverter limits to 253 V – this regularly happens to me and causes export power to drop in the middle of the day. If every house is exporting then the current goes back through the transformer and the transformer secondary voltage rises above 253 V (over voltage) – it has to or power won’t flow back to the primary. Power has to go somewhere.
Some transformers do have voltage regulation, a tap changer that increases the turns ratio and lowers the secondary voltage, in this case power can flow back up to the HV feeder at a lower secondary voltage, the extra power pushed into the network by solar won’t cause an overvoltage if auto tap changers are in place. It is too expensive to do this except in very limited cases.
It gets a bit complicated but in essence line and transformer resistances mean that you can have very localised over voltages especially on lightly loaded lines ( lines where solar generation capacity exceeds demand by a lot).
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Thanks Bobl.
Great explanation and useful insights on the calculations.
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So the need for lower resistance lines would also be another way non battery backed roof top solar drives the price up.
00
Yes – Recently developed suburbs have the power distribution designed to handle the peak generation rather than the peak load. Existing suburbs need transformer manual tap changers adjusted and sometimes line upgrades to handle the increased generation in the area.
In some case line upgrades have been avoided by installing batteries/diesel in a local substation so the area is somewhat self contained with its solar collection from rooftops, storage in the battery and diesel to make up if the battery is low and the feeder line is at its limit.
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Comforting to know that the voltage levels all across 2-3000kms of the grid are so uniform and easily controlled. No Problem then.
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but of course, we knew that! https://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/11/how-to-develop-xinjiang.html
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…. “training” and “boarding schools” where residents receive vocational, legal and language training as well as “de-extremisation education”.
Australia needs to set up these boarding schools.
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of course of course https://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/11/china-fishes-all-hemispheres.html
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also please see, on a very similar theme, https://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/11/how-china-plays-shipping-products-game.html
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Beijing is a bit like a bull in a China shop, but they’ll settle down eventually.
“And that’s not surprising, because Chinese investment in this country is starting to mature a bit, just as other sources matured previously, like Japanese investment, American investment before that.
“It starts to diversify across the sectors, across the economy.”
‘Dr Armstrong said that brought new opportunities for Australian business.
“So whereas we used to dig up a lot of rocks and ship them to China, that will still be a big part of our economic relationship, but their investment is largely coming into tourism, the services sector, services links importantly,” Dr Armstrong said.
ABC
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‘Chinese Australian Sheri Yan played a key role in a secret Beijing operation targeting the most prominent symbol of the global rules-based order: the UN.’
SMH
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MWP observed in South America.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618218308322
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Has anyone opted out of My Health online?
I did or thought I did two weeks ago. Being the government I thought I would ring up just
to confirm it happened.
It did not happen. I mentioned to the young lady that I had a transaction number from
when I submitted it, that seemed to be of no interest to her.
She then told me that she would manually do it for me, and gave me another transaction number.
I told a friend that they should check, and the same thing happened to them.
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Thanks for the reminder.
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yes we opted out. I left it a week and went in to opt out again and I didnt exist.
00
How can the US send observers into other countries to oversee their elections in an attempt to give them a good housekeeping stamp of approval when their own elections are corrupt to the core?
Would the UN be justified in sending their observers into Florida????????
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Trump has tweeted about the Florida election and the fact a heap of votes have mysteriously just turned up for Florida , Trump says it was the Russians that are to blame
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I think its called hubris Hanrahan. I dont even try to not laugh now when I hear them talk about the greatest democracy, best legal system, best medical care etc. Basically they can lay claim to having a very big highly fragmented economy powered by massive debt, in which not much works in a cohesive way. Maybe its just a scale problem.
10
Scientists have proof that CO2 was liberated from the deep southern oceans during deglaciation.
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2018/october/rapid-co2-release-.html
Of course we already knew that.
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So I pose the question, what started Meltwater Pulse 1A?
‘This leaves the Antarctic Ice Sheet as the only other ice sheet capable of delivering enough sea level to explain mwp‐IA, but there are currently no well‐dated high‐resolution records to document this hypothesis. These conclusions suggest that reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in the ICE‐4G model, which are constrained to match the sea level record, may be too low for time periods younger than 15,000 years ago.’
Clark and Alley ’96
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A Heinrich Event
‘Results reveal several episodes of accelerated ice-sheet recession, the largest being coincident with meltwater pulse 1A. This resulted from reduced Southern Ocean overturning following Heinrich Event 1, when warmer subsurface water thermally eroded grounded marine-based ice and instigated a positive feedback that further accelerated ice-sheet retreat.’
Golledge et al 2014
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As the water warms CO2 will rise.
I havent read what you have posted there but do they indicate the ice volumes that are locked on land?
The 2 major ice sheets that can have any effect on sea levels are Antarctica and Greenland. Remember when Nth America and other parts of the world was covered in a mile of ice (~14000 BP yr), the levels were 100’s meters lower, so that volume had to be released to become the present levels. Another interesting point and controversial is the mechanism for the catastrophic melt vs time taken, the energy input is rather large, more than just warming air.
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The general argument is that sea level rise came about with the collapse of the Laurentide ice shelf, but on calculation there was a lot more ice melting in Antarctica then previously thought.
‘…the energy input is rather large, more than just warming air.’
Yeah, under sea volcanoes perhaps. Makes more sense than a Heinrich Event.
‘Heinrich events appear related to some, but not all, of the cold periods preceding the rapid warming events known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, which are best recorded in the NGRIP Greenland ice core. However, difficulties in synchronising marine sediment cores and Greenland ice cores to the same time scale cast aspersions on the accuracy of that statement.’ wiki
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Two centuries of volcanic activity pulled the world out of glaciation.
https://theconversation.com/two-centuries-of-continuous-volcanic-eruption-may-have-triggered-the-end-of-the-ice-age-83420
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Jordan Peterson wandered into a minefield and came out alive.
“Here’s one of the worst things about the whole mess,” Peterson said. “So, as you project outwards with regards to your climate change projections, which are quite unreliable to begin with, the unreliability of the measurement magnifies as you move forward in time, obviously, because the errors accumulate.”
“If you go out 50 years, the error bars around the projections are already so wide that we won’t be able to measure the positive or negative effects of anything we do right now,” Peterson said.
The Daily Caller
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Interesting electrical power generation for yesterday, Saturday 10th November 2018.
As is always the case, power consumption, and from that power generation, is a lot lower on weekends than it is on weekdays, and yesterday was lower on the day by 1650MW per hour from Friday, and that’s a substantial 7.8% lower. Earlier in the week, it was up over 23000MW per hour, so this total for Saturday was around 16% lower than on those three days.
Interestingly, coal fired power just hums like it always does, no matter if that overall is higher or lower. There are 48 Units in total, and at the moment, as has been the case for most of the last five or more weeks, there are 10 of those Units off line, some having Upgrades, and other having maintenance, as is the case in the Seasons of lower consumption, Autumn and Spring, and as one Unit goes off line, another comes back on in a carefully scheduled manner.
So then, back to yesterday. Coal fired power has been averaging around 72-75% of the overall generation from every source for the last five weeks, but yesterday, while the overall was that much lower, coal fired power was higher, and across the day, coal fired power delivered 82% of all generated power being consumed.
Those ten Units off line total out at a Nameplate of 4960MW, and those 38 Units on line averaged a power delivery of 15990MW per hour across the day, with a low of 14900MW, and a high of 17600MW.
That 24 hour average per hour saw those 38 Units average a Capacity factor of 87.3%, and at their maximum power delivery they were operating at 96% of Nameplate.
Compare that with wind power on the same day. From a Nameplate of 5421MW. wind power averaged 790MW per hour, at a Capacity Factor of 14.6%. The total power delivered by wind power was delivered by coal fired power every 70 minutes for that full 24 hours.
True there are days when wind power does do well, but hey, what are we supposed to do when there are days like yesterday, just wait for that High Pressure Weather System to clear away from that area in Southern Australia where there are the greatest number of those wind towers. Today’s not much better either.
Tony.
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Which temperature series are correct?
Which do you believe, GISTEMP, HadCRUT4, UAH, or RSS?
This article compares these 4 “major” temperature series, to see how well they agree, or disagree, with each other.
You may be surprised at the results.
https://agree-to-disagree.com/comparing-temperature-series
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Without looking I don’t trust any of them any more .
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Latest poll results show team Scomo is back to a hiding , 45% Liberal and 55% Labor .
Time for Scomo to back coal ,get rid of subsidies for unreliables and dump Paris ,start governing this country for the people who live here .
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robert rosicka –
good luck with that. Scomo is a globalist. only the failure of globalism provides any hope:
9 Nov: The Hill: Is Emmanuel Macron the one to restore the liberal world order?
By Kyle Evanoff
(Kyle Evanoff is a research associate focused on international economics and United States foreign policy with the Council on Foreign Relations)
At the same time, nationalists have taken the reins of power across much of the West. The “America first” policies of the Trump administration have contributed to the decline of United States leadership and a cracking international order. Europe, meanwhile, contends with uncertain Brexit negotiations, a Schengen Area where several nations have reintroduced border controls, and a populist governing coalition driving Italy toward fiscal disaster. All of this comes at a time when German Chancellor Angela Merkel has confirmed her looming abdication, leaving Europe and liberal internationalism in desperate need of a new champion.
The Paris Peace Forum, then, arrives at a pivotal moment. For all its benefits, globalization has produced a galaxy of cross border challenges, and to a large degree has stoked the nationalist sentiment now bedeviling the liberal order. Mobilizing a constituency for international action, as the forum promises to do, has never been a more pressing goal. A powerful set of backers, in the form of Macron and the numerous partners enlisted, has devoted considerable resources to accomplishing this objective. With many of the most influential individuals in the world slated to speak or attend, the event could well rally support for liberal internationalism.
Success in this mission, however, is far from assured. His popular image as a would be monarch, as well as his plummeting approval ratings at home and uninspiring track record on reform, leaves the ability of Macron to serve as upholder of the liberal order in doubt. Moreover, the Paris Peace Forum suffers from a serious lack of momentum. President Trump plans to skip the event, and lackluster marketing has made for a major international gathering of which few are aware, an inauspicious sign for a meeting intended to galvanize support for collective action…
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/416024-is-emmanuel-macron-the-one-to-restore-the-liberal-world-order
the writer of the above – Kyle Evanoff – links to the following ECFR piece on his Twitter page – he played a part:
Acknowledgements
These memoranda were presented at a CFR workshop, “Innovations in Global Governance,” organized by CFR Senior Fellow for Global Governance Miles Kahler, Professor Deborah Avant, and Jason Pielemeier. The organizers wish to thank the authors of the memoranda and the workshop participants, whose comments contributed to these final, published versions. The organizers are also grateful for the organizational and editorial contributions of ***Kyle Evanoff, CFR research associate; for the oversight and support of the workshop by Megan Roberts, associate director of CFR’s International Institutions and Global Governance program; and to Stewart Patrick, James H. Binger senior fellow in global governance and director of CFR’s International Institutions and Global Governance program, for presiding over the workshop session on climate change. This publication is part of the International Institutions and Global Governance program and was made possible by the generous support of the Robina Foundation.
24 May: European Council on Foreign Relations: Can Europe save the world order?
Policy Brief by Anthony Dworkin & Mark Leonard
INTRODUCTION
The world is becoming a scarier place. Trade wars loom, great-power competition is returning, proxy conflict is spreading, and President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris agreement on climate change. Rules and alliances that once promoted international cooperation and stability seem to be losing their hold. In their place, there is a resurgence of international relations based on assertive nationalism, winner-takes-all competition, and disdain for the rule of law. Hopes that international politics would encourage the spread of democracy and human rights have faltered, while authoritarianism and illiberalism are in the ascendant. These changes have led many people to argue that the liberal international order developed after the second world war is breaking down…
Global challenges: Migration and climate change…
This year, UN member states are due to adopt two global compacts on refugees and migration respectively – non-binding frameworks that aim to set out guiding principles for collective action. They will be based on the 2016 New York Declaration, which reaffirmed that protecting refugees is a shared international responsibility and pledged “robust support” to countries affected by large-scale migration. This approach builds on the Nansen Initiative on migration caused by natural disasters…
Climate change has long spurred migration, an effect that will likely become increasingly apparent as temperatures and sea levels rise. In 2015, a worldwide “high-ambition coalition” of states forged the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement as a hybrid model combining voluntary national commitments with obligations on transparency and reporting. Based on the aspirational principle that parties will increase their commitments over time, the agreement includes a significant role for non-state entities such as businesses, civil society groups, and local governments. These diverse participants will help the COP21 regime survive Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the agreement (just as he withdrew it from negotiations on the Global Compact for Migration)…
This evolving approach to global governance has won support from both the West and emerging powers such as India and China due to its voluntary nature and its embrace of the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”…
On climate change, the EU should supplement its current commitments with a carbon border-adjustment tax to encourage adherence overseas, and make sure that European businesses do not suffer for their efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions…
https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/can_europe_save_the_world_order
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It seems that most leaders these days are actually followers , following the the cult of CAGW and the only two exceptions I know of are Trump and the new leader of Brazil .
God help us .
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Like you, i am sure he can get it to 40% / 60% if only he tries harder.. 🙂
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There is that possibility, but I’m assured he will be more dynamic next year.
What to do, a green left coalition is a certainty and the PM may lack the bottle to win, which means Tony Abbott will be Opposition leader after the election.
By then the green pink slime of neo Fascism will be widespread, yet parliament continues to function normally.
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‘Labor has opened a commanding 10-point lead over the Morrison government in the latest Newspoll survey, and the prime minister’s approval ratings have also taken a hit.
‘The Newspoll, published by the Australian on Sunday night, showed similar negative movement to last week’s Guardian Essential poll, a survey where the prime minister’s disapproval rating jumped nine points in a month.’
Guardian
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11 Sept 2017: Council on Foreign Relations: From International Institutions and Global Governance Program
Innovations in Global Governance
Peace-Building, Human Rights, Internet Governance and Cybersecurity, and Climate Change
by multiple authors
DOWNLOAD PDF
Overview
Over the last three decades, a diverse collection of actors — private corporations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and subnational (state, provincial, and urban) governments — has developed and promoted a global agenda of collective action. From advancing human rights to combating climate change, these actors have become new governors in world politics. More recently, a second movement — a loose array of populist and nationalist groups and governments — has questioned the forward momentum of institutionalized global cooperation. Brexit, followed by the Donald J. Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement on climate change, as well as proposed cuts in U.S. contributions to the United Nations and development assistance, suggest a weakening — if not undermining — of the network of treaties, institutions, and relationships constructed over the last seventy years…
The Emerging Landscape of Global Governance
Across the four issue areas of peace-building, human rights, the cyber domain, and climate change, one innovation in global governance has been the emergence of less formal, creative multilateral organizations in response to the existing slow-moving, formal intergovernmental mechanisms. These institutionalized coalitions of the willing have proved to be useful instruments for collective action…
Reimagining Global Governance
Innovations in climate governance could provide models for other issue areas. Orchestration by the United Nations, important in forging the Paris Agreement, might also serve to enable peace-building innovations. A transfer of the multistakeholder models of ICoCA, the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, or the Climate Action Network, which coordinates NGOs in order to influence other actors, would be a more ambitious undertaking…
Chapter Downloads: includes
Innovations in Global Climate Governance,” by Karen Florini
“The New Climate Governance Paradigm,” by Robert C. Orr (DEAD LINK, BUT AVAILABLE IN THE FULL PDF AT TOP OF ARTICLE)
https://www.cfr.org/report/innovations-global-governance?utm_campaign=Governance-Innovations-Report&utm_medium=earned&utm_source=redirect
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re Karen Florini:
Climate Central: Karen Florini, Vice President for Programs
Karen Florini is Vice President for Programs at Climate Central, where her roles include developing and implementing communications strategies that reach and move large U.S. and global audiences as well as key decision-makers. In addition, she leads the integration of Climate Central’s program efforts, and oversees the creation and distribution of the group’s products to the public and thought leaders.
From April 2015 to January 2017, Florini served as Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change at the U.S. Department of State. In that capacity, she helped lead the Global Climate Change Initiative, a whole-of-government mechanism for integrating climate change into foreign assistance. She also led the State Department’s engagement with businesses, state and local governments, and civil society in the climate negotiations context. In addition, she headed the State Department’s portfolio on short-lived climate pollutants, which included overseeing U.S. participation in the multilateral Climate and Clean Air Coalition, co-chairing the Coalition’s Oil/Gas Methane Partnership, and chairing the Arctic Council’s Expert Group on Black Carbon and Methane. During 2017, Florini was a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Martin School of the University of Oxford.
Previously, Florini spent more than 25 years at Environmental Defense Fund, where among other responsibilities she was Managing Director for International Climate and led the Environmental Health Program. Her combined 30-plus years of service on non-profit boards included 18 years as a Trustee of Oberlin College. She earned a bachelor’s degree with majors in biology and environmental policy at Oberlin, and a J.D. at Harvard Law School, where she was Editor-in-Chief of the Harvard Environmental Law Review…
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from Robert Orr’s chapter – The New Climate Governance Paradigm:
INNOVATION 4: STRATEGIC ORCHESTRATION…
Orchestrating a multistakeholder concert: This is perhaps the most significant contribution of the United Nations in the current climate governance paradigm. Notably, for the first time in the history of the United Nations, at the 2014 summit the secretary-general defined leaders as both governmental and nongovernmental. Business, civil society, municipal, and gubernatorial leaders were given comparable importance as presidents and prime ministers. This was most visibly manifest in protocol on the day of the summit: government leaders were required to speak in parallel in separate rooms to fit everyone in and to limit their remarks to four minutes each. This blending of the formal with the informal in the home turf of formal processes was unprecedented and was met initially with some resistance. And yet, the French presidency would soon enthusiastically incorporate these innovations into the Paris process. Nonstate participation and interaction with member states at the 2014 summit was carefully curated. To be seen and featured as leaders, these actors underwent a yearlong process of proposal refinement and coalition-building. Only after extensive involvement and an intense vetting process were select organizations invited as speakers at the summit.
The criteria of worthwhile announcements were set in keeping with the mitigation gap as defined by the UN Environment Program’s gap report. Eight sectors (transport, forests, agriculture, renewable energy and energy efficiency, short-lived climate pollutants, cities and subnational regions, resilience, and finance) that contribute most to climate change were targeted. Using a sectoral approach ensured that leaders within a sector could set in motion a race to the top within their own sectors. This logic was carried through to the Paris conference and forms the basis of the action agenda today.
The secretary-general’s office also worked with civil society in the organization of the People’s Climate March held just two days ahead of the summit. Through discussions with the organizers of the march for over nine months, an agreement was reached that the march would be global, inclusive, and aim for a constructive tone. The numerous speeches given by leaders two days later evidently drew inspiration from the march…
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Wikipedia: Robert Cameron Orr, Ph.D formerly served as the United Nations Assistant Secretary-General for Policy Coordination and Strategic Planning in the Executive Office of the Secretary-General. He is currently the Dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy.
Prior to joining the UN, Orr served as the Executive Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. Before that, he was Director of the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C. and is still a current member…
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For a few short golden moments in history a few countries, and even groups of countries, have managed to latch onto
a set of principles that allow conflict resolution without killing. All have been based on respect for the individual
and permissive economic diversity, allowing a rising tide to lift all boats.
False prosperity based on autocracy has always failed when the autocracy failed to resolve complex issues that a free market is capable of managing.
There are signs that the left, perhaps especially the green left, has drifted outside the consensus of how we solve problems. If we cannot return to such a consensus, the other outcome is always death. Autocracies have killed hundreds of millions; the process of freeing a society from autocracy hundreds more.
We need fear Marxism, with its proven evil ideological core. But we also need to fear the descent of a democracy into an authoritarian hell.
A social distortion that requires continuing additional distortions to “correct” the government’s self inflicted wounds truly is “the road to serfdom”. The tipping point is when the social deprivation is so bad that free and fair elections are no longer possible.
While the forms are sometimes retained, the realities are both tragic and horrific. Whether “one man, one vote, one time”, or “it’s not who votes but who counts”. the left edges towards “win at all costs”.
For a bit of dark humor, watch the old, old movie “Key Largo”. There is a brief dissertation on voting in greater Miami, Florida that has a distinctly modern ring to it. Johhny Rocco lives on. Things haven’t changed in 80 years. (You can find hist soliloquy and other lines from movies at wavplace.com/moviek.htm.)
Our self destructive tendency is not to try things that don’t work. When we try things some will work and some will not. Our self destructive tendency is to allow elites to maintain their perks as the rest of society deteriorates. The history of the world can well be written as a tale of tyrants and their eventual disposal. Can the prosperous west rid itself of a green tyranny, or will we find ourselves, like Cuban farmers in the 90’s, hitching a mule to an old auto chassis with the engine gone, while his government flies fighter jets for the Russians?
One of the best things to do, that is never done, is specify constitutionally that all laws will apply first to legislature (rather than the more common self-exemption). Pull the switch on the Capital first.
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“Get my boys to bring the voters out. And then count the votes over and over again ’til they added up right, and he was elected.”
Said in Florida too.
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Does this remind anyone of the pink bats fiasco? Politicians dabbling in business affairs of which they know nothing at all?
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Rod Stuart:
Try ‘Green’ drive leaves thousands of families stranded in homes riddled with damp and mould in notalotofpeopleknowthat.
Seems that they have an even bigger mess there with shoddy insulation leaving, maybe, a million homes needing remedial work.
One ‘lucky’ owner was quoted £40,000 to fix a house worth £90,000. Walls so damp that there are mushrooms growing on them.
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That was what I linked, #3!
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ABC are reporting that turtles in Northern Australia are under threat because of climate change , the increased heat means all the young are born female? , Crocs gender is also determined by heat but no mention of long tailed short legged swamp dogs .
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The ABC would call that progress I would have thought, what with maleness of any kind being abhorrent and something to be avoided.
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Average November maximum temp 17c ? Really ? , no wonder I don’t want to visit Tasmania and if they are placing emphasis on the expected 27c I guess when it gets to 29c there will be another heatwave alert .
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/temperatures-in-hobart-making-for-an-interesting-november/528753
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Personally I prefer a place with seasons and a break from hot weather, so Tassie seems quite attractive.
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We are looking at is a global cooling signal, too hot too cold, comes in waves because of ‘blocking’.
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For those who’ve missed it.
The migration of the skeptic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgOMiyjitjA
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thanks for that, funny stuff 🙂
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Wonderful, this is how we’ll bring down the edifice.
At first I chuckled, then laughed out loud, and by the end I was crying. Good value, I’ll pass it on.
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There was a link to a Doug Casey vid after that. Interesting!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bu1r5njd8O8
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What was being said is the question. It wasn’t David Attenborough speaking. The skeptics who organise the QED conference aren’t climate skeptics. I’m a bit skeptical . . . .
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The ABC with this one reminds me of the old adage, to be a good liar you need a good memory.
The ABC is prosecuting the case that the Bourke street madman was just in need of a hug and we shouldn’t judge the actions of a few on the many .
If that’s the case why did we have Howard’s firearms forced buyback and why do the ABC defend it .
I nearly choked when the Drive time host explained (sarcastically ) that the person in question lured the old guy to his demise .
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One red thumb ! Brace yourself , in accepted presstitute speak and channeling the ABC the restaurant owner was at fault for not taking his own safety seriously .
There are many religions in Australia it’s part of our diverse make up but only one religion has this abomination.
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Has Ruth Bader-Ginsberg’s health driven the US left to panic?”
In normal times no level headed political tactician would have advised the dems to go to such extremes to block the confirmation of Kavanaugh. Some involved are at serious risk of jail time, but was it Pelosi who dismissed such risk as “collateral damage”? As long as the damage doesn’t involve democrats, that’s OK.
A red flag: Why so desperate?
In the last near week Florida electoral officials have been criminal in their handling of ballots and finding thousands of late ballots. Ms Snipes faces serious jail time. But why take such risks?
Another red flag.
RBG fell last week and broke a few ribs. This is painful for a footballer but not life threatening. For such a frail lady, not so easily dismissed.
But that doesn’t explain the extreme prejudice of the Kavanaugh hearing, Could it be that RBG informed the left that her cancer was recurring and that she must retire soon, January?
The antagonism towards Trump, the anti-Christ getting a third Supreme Court nomination explains a lot. At least to me.
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