JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
I hope everyone had a joyful holiday – whatever holiday is celebrated!
I am wondering how the alarmists will pin this (salt dust eroding snow) on CO2 or man made warming.
Of course, just like the cooling of the mid-USA, attributed to farming, it may just be relegated to “nothing new, don’t look” back page news.
100
Have just seen a complete Sunrise.
First the golden orange hue, then, the first spot of the brilliance to come.
Four minutes or so the whole thing was there ready to stir up the Wind and take away the night chill.
The main reason for my being up so early has to do with “community”, or the lack of it.
As a community we seem to have made little progress in the relatively short space of time I have been able to react to my surroundings and it seems we have gone backwards in many areas of living.
The greatest worry for me is the recent awareness that most people lack either the will or capacity to make decisions for themselves and leave the running of society to their “betters”.
And so we end up in the mess we are currently in.
Where the hell is Wat Tyler when you need him.
In our modern, sophisticated, electronically connected world , for some reason every household is paying a thousand dollars a year in electricity surcharges.
In the vernacular, we are being ripped off, and we can’t collectively react to what is effectively Enslavement.
Our children are being taught that as good little citizens they must leave school and vocally protest about the Vironment and coal.
Where is our sense of community?
End of despairing rant.
KK
221
There is no such thing as a community for me, only invidualism. When u look at history, changes are mostly made by individuals ,good or bad.
The current morass is nothing new. People care about where their bread comes from and the value of lofty ideas like freedom is always appreciated after it has been lost.
The yellow vest protest is typical of a morass mixed with greed (bread). They voted in another globalist, now they not happy, as he implements what he said he would do. The Connection only was made when they realised that this will hit them in the pocket.
I came from communism where bread was the only thing valued. Freedom was beyond the compression of most of the people as they were to busy keeping their heads just above poverty.
Same in Australia. Despite being so affluent, they still don,t care about the values of freedom, except the few.
Now prepare for Shorten’s globalisation of Australia ie pushing us into the 3rd country zone.
202
Changes are mostly make by individuals…
True. But some civilizations foster their genius individuals. What chance does a genius have if they are born in Yemen or the Congo?
100
In Australia we only idolise sporting heroes pop stars and Celebrities.
The people who keep the whole country running are forgotten or demonised.
The new “smart” people are academics who toe the party line or the current populist belief.
121
Once upon a time universities were interested in that sort of thing but it paid poorly and was generally frowned upon as those types tended to exhibit independence and natural capacities and to diverge from accepted wisdom of the latest fish ‘n chip wrapper which unsettled the chickens and made their eyes flit about on the verge of emitting original thoughts.
41
KK
Like your speel. Do we need to “collectively react” ? I feel we can and should react individualy. Lots of us.
Just a thought while we are watching the sun rise, if you were on a clipper ploughing across the southern Pacific 1898 watching the sun rise, or set, when during those four minutes would you press the stopwatch to find your longitude?
Doug
70
I must confess that in my old age I don’t know the difference between lat and long let alone understand the significance of the timing thing.
But now you’ve got me thinking that there are progressively smaller circular slices as you get closer to the poles where it’s zero.
Too much thinking isn’t good when on holidays.
🙂 KK
30
Was there a big Earthquake in 1898?
21
G’day D,
I thought they did that at midday, when they “shot the sun” for latitiude.
Cheers,
Dave B
30
That rings a bell.
21
Sun angle above the horizon at local noon give accurate latitude and tells you exactly when local noon is. You then compare that with your chronometer (set for GMT)to give longitude.
40
And James Cook took one of the first adequate chronometers on the voyage on which he discovered the east coast of Oz, via Tahiti, in 1770.
Cheers,
Dave B
50
Sounds good, but after your previous posts can we Trust it?
30
G’day KK,
I’d say it’s a fair outline. The accuracy achieved depends on the precision of the sextant, the skill of the observer(s) and the state of the weather. Moderately easy on a smooth sea with clear visibility to the horizon, not so easy on a heaving deck even with visibility. And no result if no visibility.
But no prob with GPS, as FarmerDoug2 notes below.
20
Read the book by Dava Sobel, and it’s only short, titled Longitude.
It’s about that first Harrison Clock built by a self taught clockmaker John Harrison, that finally led to the resolution of Longitude.
The O Degree longitude was originally proposed to go through Paris, but after the invention of his clock, and its proof over the years, solving that problem of Longitude, they put it through Greenwich in London.
If not the book, preferable, go see Harrison on the Wiki site. (at this link) (The book is infinitely better)
Tony.
80
Accurate time measurement is the key to navigation, (geopositioning). GPS measures time difference between satelite signals.
“Shooting the sun,or stars, requires a sextant.
A mob of shot up Ausies find themselves in the sea with a radio and nothing much else. They advised rescue when sunset was and they flew along the longitude and picked them up.
From my watching the sunrise while cooking breakfast it seems to do all sorts funny things, for “four minutes”, then it is well up.
Guess if my life depended on it I’d watch closer.
Doug
30
Even GPS is inaccurate, because Austalia is constantly moving NE, so your actual location as determined by GPS is out by a small fraction.
00
John Harrison H1 chronometer can be seen here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mRTMZ3pTtM
This is not a replica, it is the real thing, displayed at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich.
For the history see the reference quoted by Tony above, Longitude by Dava Sobel (a really good read). The chronometer was restored to working order by Lt Cmdr R T Gould RN.
Also, in terms of “shooting the sun” at midday I think the accuracy of the sextant is not significant. The heaving deck problem could also be partly compensated by hand holding the instrument. Observations were made before, about the time of and after midday. Interpolating the result increased the accuracy. An estimate was better than no observation. Of course no good if complete cloud cover.
40
Hi Tony
Read that a long time ago.
Completely forgotten the detail.
KK
00
Is this one of those trick questions Doug, because when we see the sun “set”, as I will do on Monday night, the truth is that it’s actually gone down below the horizon some minutes before.
00
Keith I agree with your sentiments as I suspect do many others on this site.
To add a comment if I may, I would say that the wealth factor is part of the reason;
When people have so much they are carefree and careless about their expenditure.
GeoffW
30
Well, let’s see, since the 1970s there have been some 40, 50 or 60 “predictions” from the climate alarmist that haven’t materialized as of 12/2018. It seems that the SCIENCE IS NOT SETTLED. Regards, retired engineer, physicist, astronomer and petroleum geologist, Fort Worth, TX
381
for me, a scientific theory or prediction can simply be falsified by ONE failed experiment. I have been
looking at the same sea view out of my window for 20 years. Sea level rise? Took a digital photo 20years
back of the current scene. 100 meters deep now a la Robin Williams of your ABC? No, a few millimeters at
most. Use the rocks as tide markers. Retired electrical engineer, physicist,computer modeller…
294
Did you control for sea temperature, plate teutonics, continental drift, air pressure etc? Otherwise all you have is an observation, you have not falsified anything.
819
I think that’s false Peter.
71
I must agree with Peter here. There is also sediment deposits being washed downriver that can impact tide gauge measurements, and as recently confirmed on Ameria’s eastern coastline (recent WUWT article), the slowly rising coastline rebounding from the last glacial affects SLR measurements. But if anything, most of these physical changes decrease, not increase, SLR measurements.
10
Relevant points Graeme regarding the wide range of issues that can affect “apparent” or relative sea level change.
In the spirit of Marcus’ comments about the apparent lack of change, it might be noted that he suggests that nothing was measured and was just anecdotal comment.
Mr Fitzroy’s comment was made just as ridicule and wasn’t relevant to what Marcus said.
That’s not science.
The take away point from Marcus’ comment is that his local view does not show up the Algorithm predictions of several metres in sea level rise.
Mr Fitzroy seems to want to divert attention from this Failed Prediction.
KK
40
Point noted KK and I can understand your response. Perhaps I should have focused on the absence of the slope change. The alarmists seem to be saying that SLR rise has increased, but there doesn’t seem to be any sign of this in the tide gauges.
30
‘plate teutonics’? Sehr güt mein Herr. 🙂
141
Comedy act? Peter!
Or just another lonely, empty comment?
Sea level rise remains at a STEADY 1.5-2mm/year, +/- some cyclic bits.
Tide gauges show a slight deceleration over time.
https://i.postimg.cc/mg1xm4yB/Sea_level_slows_Puls_1.jpg
61
When anybody tries to tell me about the “dangerous” SLR changes, I just tell them to go look at our local (Fremantle) tide gauge figures. The Freo tide gauge has been in the same place for almost 100 years, and when I last checked, the average yearly rise was 1.3mm/year, and that includes land subsidence.
30
‘Plate teutonics’ ? Those German Teutonic knights from the Middle Ages were throwing plates around? Fitzy was trying to show how smart he is but just messed it up with history. At least those Teutonic Knights may have seen the the Medieval Warming Period unlike Prof. Michael Mann.
100
Checking testable predictions of climate change catastrophist James Hansen.
https://youtu.be/U2z-UPTDjW0
60
97% of climate science predictions have been wrong (Sarc)
“Climate scientists ” are the under the new definition of political science.
Ie find some correlation to support a political agenda.
60
G’day Mal,
I reckon “The delinquent teenager…” by Donna Laframboise goes one step further and provides evidence (proof?). And her book was published a few years back.
Then there are the words of the IPCC head who has been quoted here, by others (and as usual I’ve forgotten by whom) advising the world that they were about income distribution, not climate change at all.
So I suggest we gather the proof, or at least evidence. We don’t need the (inconclusive) correlation.
Cheers,
Dave B
60
From this link https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-03/un-official-admits-global-warming-agenda-really-about-destroying-capitalism
A shocking statement was made by a United Nations official Christiana Figueres at a news conference in Brussels.
Figueres admitted that the Global Warming conspiracy set by the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, of which she is the executive secretary, has a goal not of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity, but to destroy capitalism. She said very casually:
“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.”
She even restated that goal ensuring it was not a mistake:
“This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history.”
Even when the invaders give their plans openly the sheeple conditioned to follow their masters couldn’t imagine they’d allow this to happen.
And all the time—such is the tragic-comedy of our situation—we continue to clamour for those very qualities we are rendering impossible….In a sort of ghastly simplicity we remove the organ and demand the function. We make men without chests and expect from them virtue and enterprise. We laugh at honour and are shocked to find traitors in our midst. We castrate and bid the geldings be fruitful.
C.S.Lewis.
51
Mal
There are no climate “predictions”.
.
There are only wild guesses
of the future climate.
.
Predictions would require accurate knowledge
of climate change physics — that knowledge
does not yet exist — many people claim they “know”
what causes climate change (CO2) …
but their 100% wrong “predictions”
prove they don’t know what they are talking about !
Without knowing exactly what causes climate change,
it is impossible to make a prediction
that has more value than a wild guess,
and, in fact, IS NOTHING MORE THAN
A WILD GUESS !
20
The seven principles of Kwanzaa — perhaps your grade-school child has spouted them to you – are: unity, self-determination, collective work, cooperative economics, purpose, creativity and faith in ourselves.
These seven Kwanzaa principles are identical to the seven principles of the infamous Symbionese Liberation Army, the murderous, bank-robbing gang of revolutionary terrorists who kidnapped newspaper heiress Patty Hearst in 1974.
https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/24/ronald-everett-karenga-creator-kwanzaa-torture-symbionese-liberation-army/
Does the IPCC have seven principles, by any chance?
160
Yes
Communism
Communism
Communism
Communism
Communism
Communism
Communism
183
They have Planks and anyone that thinks its not a bad idea to try it again is as thick as ten of them.
20
The IPCC is part of the cultural marxist conspiracy.
“Cultural Marxism” (both uppercase) is a common snarl word used to paint anyone with progressive tendencies as a secret Communist. The term alludes to a conspiracy theory in which sinister left-wingers have infiltrated media, academia, and science and are engaged in a decades-long plot to undermine Western culture. Some variants of the conspiracy allege that basically all of modern social liberalism is, in fact, a Communist front group.’ wiki
00
Good graphs in here
“Another Look At The Fuel Mix”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/21/another-look-at-the-fuel-mix/
60
“Lawmakers Overwhelmingly Vote To Modernize US Nuclear Fleet”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/26/lawmakers-overwhelmingly-vote-to-modernize-us-nuclear-fleet/
60
In comments
” ALLAN MACRAE
December 26, 2018 at 7:51 am
Good comments Kent.
Forcing any grid-connected conventional power generator to accommodate the huge fluctuations in wind and solar power is lunacy. This practice is so ridiculous and uneconomic that the following scenario is probably more economic and efficient:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/16/stacking-concrete-blocks-is-a-surprisingly-efficient-way-to-store-energy/#comment-2520849
Here’s an even better solution:
1. Build your wind power system.
2. Build your back-up system consisting of 100% equivalent capacity in gas turbine generators.
3. Using high explosives, blow your wind power system all to hell.
4. Run your back-up gas turbine generators 24/7.
5. To save even more money, skip steps 1 and 3.
“
200
If it wasn’t for double standards, she wouldn’t have any standards at all …
Julie Bishop jumps ship at Sydney Hobart yacht race
The state of the oceans is a cause Ms Bishop is passionate about and acutely aware of saying ahead of her jump “hopefully I avoid all the other vessels, and sharks, and fish, and jellyfish, and plastic bottles and swimmers.”
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/julie-bishop-jumps-ship-at-sydney-hobart-yacht-race
Wait.
How hard would it be to find a photo of green grifter Bishop sitting at a UN table with a plastic water bottle?
Yep. That easy …
Julie Bishop: ‘well-liked, well-briefed and effective’
https://www.smh.com.au/national/julie-bishop-well-liked-well-briefed-and-effective-20180826-p4zzwc.html
Or search for “julie bishop ghost flights”; +2M search results.
Excuse me, I need that air sick bag.
173
I was distinctly unimpressed by her hijacking of the Sydney to Hobart race.
131
Actually, make that: I was disgusted.
161
Shark attacked by Lawyer just south of Sydney Harbour.
210
Headline: Turnbull has A-hole transplant.
Headline: A-hole rejects Turnbull.
20
Perhaps we have reached a point in the vilification of coal that the milch cows revolt?
Consider that the packing of everyone’s electricity bills by order of the Federal government to give cash to everyone with a windmill or solar panel might just backfire. The system is now very fragile. Gas generators are creaming it all when the wind fails, as are the French nuclear generators in the UK when the wind failed last summer for a week. Charge what you like, the politicians have no choice. They cannot afford blackouts.
So the coal people might just charge the same as wind receipts for the same thing, all the time. That would push electricity prices through the roof and there is nothing the politicians can do about it. You cannot crank up wind power. Wind prices have no downwards pressure, even though they could give it away free given that they already get paid once with the LGCs.
There are real limits to gas at any price. People just cannot afford to pay more without political consequences. Hiding the way we are forced to pay for windmills will hit the fan.
260
Really, hasn’t Australia and the world enough windmills to prove that it doesn’t work? Where is the miracle of the reduction of CO2? If wind is so much cheaper, where is the cheap power?
Why are we doubling down on building windmills when there is no demonstrated benefit from the 350,000+ giant windmills currently in action. Square miles of solar panels. Why is it continuing? Who is paying for this failure? We are.
As long as politicians can pretend we are not paying for the windmills, they get away free of responsiblity for what they have done. They are using our money to build windmills for foreign companies. It is reverse Nationalisation. We have to pay foreign companies to use our own wind. It would be laughable if it was not the destruction of the economic and financial independence of the country. We are being sold down the river by our own governments, while they pretend wind is a great idea and foreign investors are paying and we are beneficiaries, not victims.
280
Perhaps if a few million Australians put on yellow vests they will suddenly become “woke”?
https://www.educatall.com/page/1092/Associating-actions-with-objects.html Babies and Toddlers appear to have the jump on most adults.
20
Well they know eventually the people will work out its nonsense, so they are gilding the lilly while they can.
Buffet has openly said he wouldnt be in wind power were it not for the govt subsidies…..
20
“Organic Is The Latin Word For “Grown In Pig Shit” ”
“Missouri farmer charged in organic fuard. But I repeat myself.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/12/26/organic-is-the-latin-word-for-grown-in-pig-shit-3/
50
“POLITICS-POLY Meaning Many Tic- A Small Filthy Bloodsucking Dependent Creature ”
From a comment elsewhere
40
My old favourite. Parliament.
A word constructed of two French verbs:
Parler > to speak
Mentir > to lie
10
?
I thought the construction included speaking, and the place where that was carried out.
Still, the lying part is very appropriate.
00
Why is it so?
‘Low expectations and negative stereotypes prevent girls from pursuing science careers.’ Oz
40
I wasn’t aware that science was still taught anywhere in Australia.
262
It’s scientific knowledge, but it doesn’t encourage people to think like scientists (or engineers).
After all, how can any government be expected to control a population which keeps asking “why?”, or which has the skills to identify and point out gross errors in logic/physics/chemistry/basic arithmetic/etc…
130
Remember Harry Messel’s comment on
“That bastard thing called General Science”?
80
The “science” taught today in most areas is more akin to witchcraft and fortune telling. Many people can’t tell the difference so the con can work very well.
123
I recall listening to a podcast of a South African christian missionary ( ex-South African army too, fyi ) who said it wasnt uncommon when a natural disaster hit a village in africa, the local village witch-doctor would sway and mumble then point the finger at the wealthiest man in the village, he;d be executed and his wealth distributed between the village chief and the witch-doctor.
Does sound rather familiar….. does it not?
160
Frighteningly so!
As I started to say above; human nature and awareness and dependence on a “leader” seems not to have changed in 70 years. This leaves plenty of scope for evil to do its thing.
Through all levels of government where I live the local “members” have done a great job:
Of looking after themselves, mates and accomplices.
Nothing of note for the Serfs.
KK
90
Familiar? It’s no different to modern day beliefs in CAGW, life from non-life by accident, matter and energy from nothing by purely natural means, and the like.
80
Our local Uni science department has ran out of Eye of Newton! quelle horreur !
20
Probably because the science is now settled.
sarc.
80
Low expectations and negative stereotypes prevent
girlsa lot of people from pursuing science careers.There, fixed it for them.
100
Where I live the local radio station often broadcasts an advertisement aimed at young people in school. The main drift of this advert is “Failure” because everything is just to hard. The ad, and I paraphrase rather than quote, goes along the lines of, so you are about to sit exams, your parents and friends will think your a failure, you will experience low self esteem, and have no prospects. Contact this number or web site to find out what other young people do to get through though times.
Not a single positive comment about hard work, no thats to hard. Just attend and everyone wins first prize. The beauty of language, numbers or knowledge in general is totally lost. From time to time I am forced to watch Who wants to be a millionaire on T.V. , and am continually appalled at a basic lack of general knowledge let alone anything specific like geography.
120
you would be a fan of the “…well, that was before my time ” response then?
00
I have a few brilliant nieces who are scientist engineers. Perfect scores. However there are no jobs in this country, except in the quasi public service which means the retirement village called the CSIRO, the BOM and the Defence Department. Oxford Honours science (chemistry) graduate Margaret Thatcher worked as a researcher in an icecream factory. Paint is another. However these are not the exciting cutting edge careers you expect in science, careers which largely only exist in the US.
So if they stay in science, they have to work for groups which will be upset if you voice an opinion publicly. That is why so many scientists stay silent on absurd propositions such as man made Global Warming which has the intellectual rigour and sound basis of The Rapture. You cannot argue against religion with facts and science. Even when former Prime Minister Tony Abbott called Climate Change crap, he was ridiculed and quickly replaced with a charlatan who believes every word. Now he says nothing.
However if Scott Morrison is going to lose anyway and we all know he will, why not bell the cat? He would win back the grey vote, the one he has lost according to the front page of the Australian.
Climate Change crap. Do a Donald Trump. Promise to stop the windmill madness, halve power prices, restore the system and get rid of the real carbon tax, the RET which has the explicit intention of forcing all coal, gas, petrol, diesel power out of existence. Currently all politicians pretend they do not know how this works. Something about certificates perhaps?
384
I assume that the red thumbs are from employees, even former employees of the CSIRO, BOM or Defence Department. I know some very good people who worked for all of these. However they also know that speaking out would get you into trouble and people have mortgages, careers and frankly, the pay is lousy. The superannuation is great but it is death in the waiting room for world leading science. Then when something as outrageous as man made Global Warming turns up, you just hope it goes away. At $1,500Billion a year, it is far from dead. It is killing this country and our scientists stay silent. Most of them.
163
True the monster is still very much alive and the scientific community is either silent or supporting the CAGW scam. In act the monster is feeding off them and the government who are all hungry for more money and taxes. That’s why the scientific community has lost all credibility, just like the politicians, and they all ought to be ashamed of it.
42
The red thumbs are from CSIRO, the BOM the Defence Department and an Ice Cream factory……….
42
Funny how when it all goes bang, the engineers and scientists will be the ones required to rebuild the mess. All politicians at that stage should all be put in detentention to stop them messing it up, and let the people who can actually do something, get on with it…..
20
Perhaps but next time around we more likely won’t have any good engineers and scientists left if the decay continues long enough. It will have to be a full reset.
10
All that would take some intestinal fortitude from Morrison.
I doubt he has any.
I’ve said it before, while ever he cow-tows to the leftist green agenda, he can NEVER gain back all the voters that Turnbull lost.
There are no votes to be gained by going left.. they are all taken.
Only voters looking for a place are the centre and centre-right…
… and ScoMo doesn’t seem to want them.
102
Is he a Turnbull plant or the best choice of a bad lot? who knows but I agree if the man has any passion for his nation why not at this stage do a “this is Sparta!” moment and boot the Green messenger down the hole?
I mean seriously how worse can it get……….
61
In a word – Shorten
30
A cultural marxist Labor/Green coalition in power for a decade.
10
I note the Byron Bay residents who have fought for 20 years to repair the sea wall and save their coastline are called ‘Climate Change Deniers’. They are part of a group earmarked for ‘retreat’. So even if we can change things, we are not allowed to do so.
Climate Deniers though. What’s to deny? What change? Coastlines change. The weather hasn’t changed but I suppose that is naive as I continually read that Climate is not weather. Yes, Australia has hot summers. So?
We have to decide whether we retreat in the face of an encroaching sea or build sea walls. The East coast of England can retreat at 1 metre a year. It can also expand. It is not a moral question. It is one of whether mankind should build anything. Big cities change climates. So what? This is nebulous nonsense.
As the owners in this case explained, most of the damage has been done by the council building a sea wall to protect the main beach and which in turn causes damage to other beaches. Damage which can be prevented.
Alleged (rapid) Climate Change needs to be substantiated, not just alleged. This is long before you get to the allegation that any change is man made and rapid, which is past unlikely and after thirty years, patently untrue.
191
Hopefully, residents who own at-risk homes could apply for a reduction in their property values, thus paying less for their council rates.
100
Thank God pigs don’t fly.
50
One of the first steps of establishing a cult is to create a catastrophic problem and reason that those who can’t see the problem are separate to those that can.
21
Three or four hot days here in Victoria, all declared as EXTREME heat and unusual for this time of year. For crying out loud, it’s summer. The weather person also keeps telling me to stay in doors, cover up, drink plenty of water and check on any elderly neigbours. Hell thats me, I hope someone walks up from my locked front gate. Oh wait, thats 700 metres to the house, don’t worry I’m sure the old bloke will be O.K.
201
11:30 here. Currently a pleasant 29° here in the Dandenongs. They are all mad.
100
12:18 and 34C here. What’s so unusual or ‘extreme’ about that in this part of the world at this time of the year?
90
Same here at 12.43 Annie and yes it used to be called summer , can’t help but notice how Oodnadatta and Marble Bar have come into scrutiny for being hot this time of year as per normal just extra focus on their higher temperature’s.
As an aside the grass in my front yard covers about a third of an acre and in 25 years I can’t remember it being so green this time of year , only gets water from the sky and a little in patches from grey water system .
100
Right…now 40C here, bar 1006.2 hPa, 19% humidity. Not nice but not exactly unheard of hereabouts in the summer.
I seem to remember trying to cater for a party in the city on the 28th eleven years ago in a non_a/c’d hall…40C then…yuk.
Our grass/clover around the house is still green. Deciduous trees leaves still intact and unburnt…they’ve been damaged by heat and wind in earlier years by now.
70
I still find it strange that when folks who build right on the edge of our oceans, or our floodplains, or on bends of our rivers, expect the government to step in and help them when nature does its thing and wipes their home out.
40
The Wacky Wreckonomics of Windmills.
Just imagine investing $450 million to build 75 towers near Ararat in Victoria with huge blades and 3.2 MW turbines on top with a total nameplate capacity of 240 MW. You are then allowed to connect these generators into the Australian electricity grid. Your contract with AEMO allows you to provide anywhere between zero and 240 MW into the grid with an average generation of 72 MW (a 30% capacity factor). You have no obligation to supply, so backup is someone else’s responsibility (and cost). And when you oversupply, someone else must forego income.
You will be paid the average Victorian wholesale price that for 2017/18 has averaged $90/Mwhr, giving you an annual gross income of $57 million. Assume that the towers will be scrap after 20 years so you must write down your investment by $22.5 million each year. In addition let’s assume that operating costs – labour, repairs etc cost 3% of capital pa, or $13.5 million. So the annual net income is 57-22.5-13.5 = $21 million, for a 4.7% return on capital.
Note that back in the “good old days” of 2015/16 when the Vic wholesale price was just $46/MWhr (comparable with wholesale electricity prices around the world) your annual net income would have been a loss of $6.9 million per year.
But here’s where your wacky wreck the economy but “save the planet” governments step in. In addition to getting the market price, under the “renewable energy target” you get issued with certificates that retailers are obliged to buy, for a price that has averaged $80/MWhr, paid for by electricity consumers – a boost to your annual income by $50 million – what a generous government. That gives you annual net income of $71 million for an annual return on investment of 15.7%. Smart (foreign) investors, dumb governments.
Meanwhile AEMO must cope with an increasingly unpredictable, unreliable, over capitalised electricity grid that results in amongst the highest electricity prices in the world.
What a wacky world as we enter 2019 with resolutions from governments to give us an even more unreliable, uneconomic “utopia”.
331
You do those scenario walkthroughs very well
90
Plus wind is a no cost input. So you get to charge the mugs for their own wind. In fact you are paid extra to do so.
The tax on coal is only 0.1C kwhr but it gets multiplied so the mugs are paying for their own coal as well.
70
Excellent summary as well. People would be very close to understanding a 15.7% return, increased profits as they get to depreciate the windmills as well and sell every bit of their product regardless of demand. Sweet business.
80
To add to Robber’s comment: a great many of the renewables projects under construction will not be able to connect to the grid because of a lack of transmission infrastructure to convey all that Kleen Green power to the masses, or at best will have their output constrained because they are all pumping out maximum power simultaneously into an overloaded grid. But we still have to pay for all of this excess, useless, intermittent capacity.
Naturally the renewables owners are aghast at the notion that they should foot the bill for building transmission lines from their solar/wind farm in the middle of nowhere to the centres of population, given that they have been gifted everything else in their renewables enterprises. They will scream blue murder and stamp their little feet until the government (ie. the taxpayer) builds their new transmission network for them gratis.
From the linked article:
“The large number of new renewables means many are either unable to connect to the grid due to the sudden congestion from excess power being generated at the same time or just a complete lack of transmission to push the power into the grid.”
“Many new entrants – some are amazingly naïve – seem to be, on average, just assuming that transmission will be just rolled out to where they build and that they won’t have to pay the cost,” energy expert Paul McArdle said.
“Wind farms in western Victoria and south-eastern Queensland and solar farms in western NSW are particularly at risk.”
“However, without adequate capacity on the transmission network, generators connecting to this part of the network will need to be heavily constrained to maintain power flows within safe limits, which could impact electricity prices over the long term.”
“One potential project, the $8 billion, 2000 megawatt Star of the South offshore wind farm off Victoria’s coast – which could provide more power than the closed Hazelwood coal-fired power station – has no way to provide power to the grid yet is still rolling ahead.”
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/personalfinance/tyranny-of-distance-the-renewable-power-disconnect/ar-BBRrH6K?ocid=spartanntp
100
You want a laugh?
A documentary published on youtube a year ago by Vice News (there’s the first warning sign) began with the premise:
The title of the video?
Wait for it…
Finally!?
When did the real world get replaced by a giant Truman Show parody? I need to know the exact date.
60
Hi TdeF,
sorry to carry this over from two posts ago, but I really liked your comment about using carbon dating to determine the amount of man made CO2 in the Atmosphere.
Could you please share some of the background and data on this?
Thanks
70
Please see #15. It ended up in the wrong place.
70
There’s little doubt about the CO2 turnover rate.
I have to mow the lawn every two weeks over summer and would get over 20 kg of grass.
Would half of that be sequestered CO2?
The green blob has got us chasing stupid green eco-memes to get away from the real science.
The real science denies the possibility of Human Origin CO2 causing CAGW.
KK
83
Just think if you cut your neighbours grass you could double the CO2 sequester……..
20
Just opened the energy widget to check if the high temps were having an impact on electricity supply or expected shortfall but the widget has morphed into a basic graph with no on going exceptions to supply .
Anyone have a link to a better graph ?
30
High spot prices predicted for the evening peak from AEMO. SA and Vic are the hot spots and most prone to shortages.
70
Thanks Robber , that was the one I had but somehow it had changed format .
10
Karma
00
Sure, try this 1957 article published by the Royal Society no less. This is from a time when scientists told the truth and were simply amazed that ‘fossil fuel’ CO2 quickly vanished. Now that is all hidden behind a wall of public misinformation. The only scientists who dare speak out are retired.
180
This is in response to #13.
60
They didn’t dream at the time that this discovery would threaten a $1,500Billion CO2 misinformation industry.
130
I also note that while Suess estimated the fossil fuel CO2 at 2%, he felt that this might have been influenced by locally higher CO2 near population centres. He felt then that the real concentration after two world wars was under 1%. This is more than half way through the 20th century!
The Suess effect is now buried in Wikipedia by irrelevant nonsense about C13. It seems they are simply trying to drown the conclusions in nonsense, hide the science of radio carbon dating.
120
Thanks Tdef,
I have found myself in similar discussions where they try very hard to take you off track. I just keep repeating the same info until they either try to address it or start to insult which means they have nothing.
I feel by addressing the fundamentals of this whole discussion rather than get distracted by the so called follow on impacts of their hypothesis, we have a far greater change of taking back the narrative of this monumental scam.
Too me their theory of CO2 raising the emission height thereby causing heating is flawed on a number of levels. No Hot Spot, Didn’t happen when CO2 was in the Thousands of ppm, and the atmosphere cannot heat the ocean, therefore when heat in the atmosphere is gone its gone into space as shown by the calculations done over the Sahara and Congo, showing water is the driver for LWIR escaping into space.
add to that CO2 increases are due to natural emissions in the northern hemisphere over the Boreal Forests as shown by the OCO-2 satellite instrument. Now with verification with your link.
Thanks again.
160
Add to that, the basic physics of gases denies the warmers any mechanism by which CO2 can trap and hold “heat” and initiate Man Made Global Warming.
I have listened to too many people who believe in global coal induced warming simply because they are followers and can’t imagine that someone on TV might be similarly, a follower conned into being the public face of a huge ripoff and control scheme which has enslaved us.
Has humanity made any progress in the last 2000 years?
KK
152
KK. Look, if the public wants to believe CO2 can trap and hold heat, let’s get rich off their belief. We’ll manufacture CO2-filled bubble wrap and get the true believers to insulate their homes with two offsetting layers of our CO2-filled bubble wrap. The CO2 will trap and hold all the heat output by their furnaces. Voila, warm winter homes at greatly reduced costs. Do you know of any literature or have any suggestions for how we might go about getting investors and convincing the public to buy our product?
141
I’m sure we could get supplies of 1.2 metre wide bubble wrap and if the likes of Coca-Cola can get enough CO2 to invigorate 300 million cans and bottles of coke each year, surely there’s enough to fill the bubbles.
Now all that’s left to do is find $1,000,000 to hire a politician to push the legislation through.
Pink Batts, Renewables, School Shelters, Desalination plants.
Bubble Wrap Heat Trapping insulation could be a real goer.
What a joy to be helping save the environment and getting paid for it.
KK
91
Bad new KK. We may be too late. The environmentalists are going to undercut us with vacuum-filled bubble wrap. However, I’m not ready to give up just yet. Given the intelligence of the average politician, if he/she is convinced he/she will get half the profits and increase his/her standing with the voting public, he’ll/she’ll give us anything we want.
50
Reed, the idea of vacuum filled bubble wrap leaves me a bit flat.
130
KK. Great response. In a comic duo, which one of us is the “straight man?”
80
I suspect we are both “straight”?
50
“Reed, the idea of vacuum filled bubble wrap leaves me a bit flat”
Frankly, I think the whole idea sucks. !!
52
Crowd funding?
Maybe Al Gore will invest some of his gains from this scam into such a venture.
40
Let me take you back … to January 2018, back when the planet was boiling and polar bears had no ice …
“Men freeze to death as mercury plunges in Russia”
https://thewest.com.au/news/world/men-freeze-to-death-as-mercury-plunges-in-russia-ng-b88717610z
110
Good photo of Anastasia.
10
One thing which always puzzles me. In summer the vast areas of ice and snow covering Canada, the US, Scandinavia and most of Russia across vast areas and half the sea ice melts to plain water. Where is the dramatic rise in sea levels? Even in the Baltic which is near closed? How does it work that so much snow and ice turns to water and someone on a pier in Stockholm or Vladivostok does not notice?
The whole rapid man made Global Warming Climate Change story so obviously contradicts everything we know to be true.
Only with very careful measurement could you determine a change even over 100 years.
Surely after thirty years of “The Day after Tomorrow” and ClimateGeddon this should end quickly? What effect has 30 years of massive spending had on CO2 levels? What good is being done building windmills only in the richest, energy rich countries? When will the insanity stop?
180
“…the insanity stop..” When enough of us, individualy or collectivly and with or without a leader, make our disagreement known. With or without a yellow shirt.
Doug
40
You know when energy giant AGL refuses a $250Million cash offer for ‘crippled’ and ‘old’ Liddell that they want it closed to get it off the grid and push up prices. Why else? After all, they bought it for $1 and say it has a real value of only $1Million. This is electricity profiteering by the board of one the integrated generator/distributor groups. Billions to be made by closing another coal power station. Loy Yang in Victoria is the next target.
So why won’t they sell worthless Liddell? This should be a scandal. The government should take back what they gifted for $1 and pay exactly what they were paid. Inflation and CPI adjusted to $1.28. Listen to the screams of ‘socialism’ from the unholy alliance of the socialists and the capitalists against the people. Both are creaming the power industry.
For example windmill driven Canberra (yes, you paid for it) has a unearned $35Million in LGC Christmas gift certificates on their books that they want to cash out, except it is a little embarrassing for public servants to be turning a huge private profit. Perhaps they could do a National Bank and give free overseas all expense paid holidays to every public servant in Canberra? Who would notice?
180
All that should be embarrassing, but nobody notices.
50
CO2 has nil impact on precipitation in north west China but two cycles showed up, ENSO and NAO.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/dec/a12.php
80
From The Australian.
181
Hmmmmm…op ed by IPA drone published in the Australian?? Who’d a thunk it or take it seriously?? 🙂
03
Pooe empty phleek,
So you cannot counter one thing stated in the link…. just more mindless attention-seeking trolling
Who would have guessed. 😉
So PETTY, so EMPTY.. so phleek.
Also totally INCAPABLE of providing any empirical evidence of warming by enhanced atmospheric CO2.
Have you ANY real empirical evidence that enhanced atmospheric CO2 impacts climate in any way whatsoever ?
How has the climate changed in the last 40 years that can be SCIENTIFICALLY put down to human influence ?
WAITING for your empty reply 😉
20
The future looks grim across the gap.
‘Nearly half of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture – the main source being methane burped from cattle and sheep.
‘The Government was currently considering how to treat methane in its proposed Zero Carbon Bill, and whether to bring agriculture into the Emissions Trading Scheme.
‘A sector survey that formed part of the new report found 64 per cent believed New Zealand agriculture should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.’
NZ Herald
130
It’s their economy, Stupid.
Dairy products, Sheep meat, wool and skins and other farm animals.
Export markets lost.
120
Plus hydro. Real mountains, a lot of water and a very small population. Especially in the South Island.
80
“and a very small population.” Oi, Tdef, I’ll have you know I’m 97% of 6 ft tall, and was once intimate with a woman even taller (OK, it was more than once but I’m being modest), while a buddy of mine is 6′ 6″ (I’ll neither confirm nor deny he was also intimate with previously mentioned Amazonian goddess… on another occasion of course). It gets mighty cold in the South Island where those real mountains are.
So please do not confuse Peter Jackson’s horror movies, about imaginary midgets with pointy ears and hairy feet, with reality. Then again, there are kunekune still running wild in the hills…
30
Plus they get all our CO2 with the Roaring Forties. Our gift to their dairy industry. They will have to pay again for our CO2.
90
Plus they get all our CO2 with the Roaring Forties. Our gift to their dairy industry. They will have to pay again for our CO2.
50
Morons
20
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/12/23/latest-climate-change-news-and-its-just-so-much-worse-than-you-thought-our-last-hope-is-the-coin-toss-of-ai/
“…I’ve been following global warming since the very first IPCC report, my horror has been that the worst case scenario is the only scenario now. Once the cascade begins, there can be no stopping it, we have passed beyond the biosphere’s ability to sustain us… The economic crash will be next year, that will spark war, the rest is already written.”
Mal, only some of us are morons, and the maniacally depressive far-left nutter who runs the above site is a prime example. I scored my first-ever banning from this hysterical site earlier this year for suggesting he pull his sandal-socks up and smell the carbon. And I’m a filthy damn longhair hippy surfer myself… ‘cept I don’t believe. Note: if you respect your mind you will not click on the link, I have warned you: comments contain Old Testament-style rants and incoherent cult-like ravings, mostly in D-minus grammar, about man’s original sin – carbon. Or carbon dioxide. Or something.
20
Let them starve then.
10
Not to worry. Plenty of whaling stations they could re-open.
20
I often read complaints about the ABC here. Imagine if you had 1/2 dozen of them, all on a mission to destroy and administration. Here is the latest example of their BS:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/12/26/fake-news-nbc-spreads-false-claim-president-trump-did-not-visit-troops-at-christmastime/
https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2018/12/26/fake-news-media-now-claim-trumps-christmas-visit-to-u-s-troops-was-obvious/
It is never ending.
60
Breaking news: White House Press Gallery journalists of the Social Democrats followers kind released top secret briefing information regarding the President’s visit before his aircraft departed.
Accordingly it was able to be tracked by enthusiasts, and any other interested people, like terrorists.
I hope the leakers are punished.
110
The temperature is climbing in Vic/SA and demand on the AEMO grid is rising past 26 MW, with a forecast peak of over 29 MW early this evening. But fear not, wind is delivering a huge 2 MW, and large solar 1.3 MW. Rooftop solar delivered its midday 4 MW “behind the meter” (ie without it demand on the grid would be over 30 MW), but come this evening, little solar, less wind, what’s left? Reliable coal, gas and hydro to keep us cool. Qld spot prices are forecast to go above $120/MWhr, while in NSW/Vic/SA those spot prices are forecast to be above $300.
Thanks for nothing, governments.
100
Good for nothing governments containing too many self interested politicians hand in hand with the globalist socialists via UN.
80
.
❶①❶①❶①❶①
❶①❶①❶①❶①
❶①❶①❶①❶①
❶①❶①❶①❶①
.
I believe that the slowdown/pause would be a dead subject, if Alarmists didn’t keep bringing it up.
They have recently published 2 scientific papers which claim to show that the slowdown wasn’t a real phenomenon.
This morning, I found an article about one of these scientific papers, at TheConversation website:
https://theconversation.com/global-warming-hiatus-is-the-climate-change-myth-that-refuses-to-die-108524
It is also featured at the SkepticalScience website:
https://skepticalscience.com
It was dated the 20th December 2018, and was by Kevin Cowtan, and Stephan Lewandowsky.
Just reading the first 2 paragraphs made me annoyed. They used the word “denier” in the first sentence, and the phrase “science-denying” in the second paragraph.
But the third paragraph really made me sit up, and take notice.
They repeated a common Alarmist lie about the slowdown, which I talked about in my recent article.
They said, “But, more importantly, these claims use the same kind of misdirection as was used a few years ago about a supposed “pause” in warming lasting from roughly 1998 to 2013.”
They talk about “misdirection”, and then misdirect people to a false weak slowdown (1998 to 2013). This is part of an Alarmist lie, that claims that the recent slowdown only exists because of the 1998 super El Nino.
In my article, I said:
– The strongest slowdown (the one with the lowest warming rate), went from 2002 to 2012, and had a warming rate of +0.14 degrees Celsius per century. Because it went from 2002 to 2012, it had nothing to do with the 1998 super El Nino.
– The strongest slowdown WHICH INCLUDED THE YEAR 1998 (the one with the lowest warming rate), went from 1998 to 2013, and had a warming rate of +0.96 degrees Celsius per century.
[note that this one is the exact same slowdown interval that Cowtan and Lewandowsky use]
– So the false Alarmist slowdown (1998 to 2013), had a warming rate which was 6.9 times greater than the warming rate of the real slowdown (2002 to 2012).
If the real slowdown (2002 to 2012) was a car that was traveling at 50 km/h, then the false Alarmist slowdown (1998 to 2013), would be a car that was traveling at 345 km/h.
– Perhaps this is one of the reasons why Alarmists don’t believe that there was a slowdown. They are not looking at the real slowdown.
I don’t like to see such blatant lies go unchallenged. I have the evidence to expose these false statements:
https://agree-to-disagree.com/alarmist-thinking-on-the-slowdown
and
https://agree-to-disagree.com/was-the-slowdown-caused-by-1998
If you are a person who values the truth, I urge you to consider the evidence in my articles about the slowdown.
I don’t mind if you disagree with me. I am willing to listen to your opinion, and your evidence.
Hope you are having a good Christmas.
Regards,
Sheldon Walker
http://www.agree-to-disagree.com
103
Were you allowed to post your comment on the Conversation Sheldon ?
50
Hi Bill In Oz,
I clicked on the “Become an author” button, and it said “To be published by The Conversation you must be currently employed as a researcher or academic with a university or research institution.”
I am just a truck driver, so I didn’t think that they would publish my articles”.
After reading your comment, I went back and looked, and they do have a comments section. But you have to sign up.
I will try leaving a comment, and see what happens.
70
Give it a go.But I am not longer allowed to comment by the Conversation. My views on Soccer ( Yes SOCCER ! ) ! got me banned as I said things that are uncomfortable to them.
90
I regularly fall foul of the “swamp” there, as i speak the truth, and they cant handle it….
51
If you had a job on the local council you could report as a Rhodes Scholar.
60
Len,
I suddenly got your joke, about an hour after I read it. Very funny, and very clever.
I hope you don’t mind if I use your joke, from now on.
40
Sheldon, thanks for the comments.
20
I tried to comment that Carbon is not carbon dioxide.Told I was an idiot.
30
Reading through that article by Cowtan and Lewandowsky there is a link to Michael Mann on the Hiatus.
‘The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming. Claims of multidecadal “stadium wave” patterns of variation across multiple climate indices are also shown to likely be an artifact of this flawed procedure for isolating putative climate oscillations.’
10
ABC are wetting themselves with glee at the high temps but I’m not sure how they can say Tasmania is in the grip of the heatwave , only one centre has 29 the rest are below .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-27/extreme-weather-to-hit-parts-of-australia/10669668
80
Marble Bar’s temp today has been somewhat interesting.
It was 49.1C at 12:38 but dropped to 48.2C a minute later.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=4106&list=ob
However, still early in the day.
60
Don’t the alarmists know anything? A heat wave is not due to climate change. It’s a normal and natural event, and has been doing so for centuries at irregular intervals. I suppose alarmists are of such low intelligence they could never understand that.
90
They know it alright, but thier minds appear to be so far gone, they just keep doing it….
Reminds me of this :
“10 And with all deceivableness of unrighteousness in them that perish; because they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved.
11 And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie:
12 That they all might be damned who believed not the truth, but had pleasure in unrighteousness.”
(2 Thess 2:10-12)
10
Behind the numbers – US Xmas spending
“Wait a minute….. Are Financial Analysts/Media Playing Games With Holiday Growth Rate of Consumer Spending?…”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/12/26/wait-a-minute-are-financial-analysts-media-playing-games-with-holiday-growth-rate-of-consumer-spending/
40
I agree with one of the comments, it is the fault of Donald Trump that so many more Americans have jobs and have had pay rises so had more money to spend .
100
Main street has been exploding despite the efforts of the Fed to raise interests rates enough to slow it down. Meanwhile Wallstreet is going through convulsive fits at first imploding and then having it’s best single day ever as most economies around the world stagnate. Trump has done many things but one of the most important is level the playing field some for the midsized and smaller companies against the investor owned conglomerates. Entrepreneurship is back in a big way and that is as it should be because that is where the most life changing innovations and inventions have come from historically. What your are seeing is a US economy in transition back towards it’s roots and those roots are fed by competition.
172
The gyrations on Wall street are down to computer trading, the fundamentals are sound.
73
‘The Dow fell more than 600 points before turning in mid-afternoon trade and rallying more than 860 points.
“No doubt there is more volatility to come,” Mr Minerd said. “I am quick to remind people that the recent events are exactly what we had expected—but we had expected it late next year, not now.”
Fin Review
10
could it possibly be? guilty???
https://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/12/in-russia-over-99-of-verdicts-are.html
30
27 Dec: BrisbaneTimes: Solar home battery warning after Brisbane house fire
By Toby Crockford
Fire crews who battled a Boxing Day blaze in inner Brisbane have warned of the dangers of solar-charged home batteries.
The fire took hold of the lower-level and garage inside a School Street house in Woolloongabba just before 2pm.
Sixteen firefighters spent an hour bringing the fire under control and another hour to extinguish the flames.
The homeowner told reporters they had solar panels connected to lithium-ion batteries and suspected the fire started nearby, a view shared by firefighter Malcolm Muscat
“[There were] approximately three battery banks so lithium-ion, lead-acid batteries, they burn with a ferocity that moves through the house quickly,” Mr Muscat said…
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/solar-home-battery-warning-after-brisbane-house-fire-20181227-p50od1.html
100
Dont forget that lithium batteries produce HF gas when they burn….nasty stuff..
40
The whole catastrophe is well known and understood.
Who authorized the installation of these dangerous batteries in a home?
Unsafe, unethical, profit centred.
KK
80
Mike McLaren sitting in for Chris Smith:
AUDIO: 12min06sec: 27 Dec: 2GB: Mike McLaren: Energy Minister can’t guarantee a blackout-free summer
Energy Minister Angus Taylor says there’s “no guarantee” we’ll see a summer free of blackouts…
https://www.2gb.com/energy-minister-cant-guarantee-a-blackout-free-summer/
60
The spiralling environmental cost of our lithium battery addiction
Here’s a thoroughly modern riddle: what links the battery in your smartphone with a dead yak floating down a Tibetan river?
The answer is lithium – the reactive alkali metal that powers our phones, tablets, laptops and electric cars.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact
80
Interesting.
50
26 Dec: NYT editorial: Trump Imperils the Planet
Two weeks ago, delegates met at a follow-up conference in Katowice, Poland, to address procedural questions left unsettled in Paris, including common accounting mechanisms and greater transparency in how countries report their emissions. In this the delegates largely succeeded, giving rise to the hope, as Brad Plumer put it in The Times, that “new rules would help build a virtuous cycle of trust and cooperation among countries, at a time when global politics seems increasingly fractured.”
But otherwise it was a hugely dispiriting event and a fitting coda to one of the most discouraging years in recent memory for anyone who cares about the health of the planet — a year marked by President Trump’s destructive, retrograde policies, by backsliding among big nations, by fresh data showing that carbon dioxide emissions are still going up, by ever more ominous signs (devastating wildfires and floods, frightening scientific reports) of what a future of unchecked greenhouse gas emissions is likely to bring.
The conference itself showcased the very fossil fuels that scientists and most sentient people agree the world must rapidly wean itself from…
Wells Griffith, Mr. Trump’s international energy and climate adviser, managed in one quote to summarize the dismissiveness of the American delegation and its fealty to the president’s apparently unshakable conviction that anything that helps the environment must inevitably hurt the economy. “The United States has an abundance of natural resources and is not going to keep them in the ground,” he said. “We strongly believe that no country should have to sacrifice their economic prosperity or energy security in pursuit of environmental sustainability.”…
Further depressing the proceedings were recent defections and political troubles in countries that, along with the United States, had been expected to lead the way to a low-carbon energy future. Germany, which long ago walked away from carbon-free nuclear power, is having a hard time cutting back on coal because of political opposition. In Australia, a prime minister was kicked out of office because he wanted to reduce the use of coal, which Australia produces in abundance. China, despite admirably aggressive investments in wind and solar power, has yet to get a firm grip on its emissions from coal-fired plants. The new president-elect of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, not only named an outspoken climate-change denier as his foreign minister but also, reversing his predecessors’ policy, pledged to open up the Amazon to mining and farming…
No country’s backsliding, of course, compares with Mr. Trump’s…
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/26/opinion/editorials/climate-change-environment-trump.html
41
…..
*’a fitting cadre’ ? hmmm..
20
G’day Pat,
Any idea who are those “delegates”? I thought they’d all gone home? it couldn’t just be a small group of their inner circle by any chance? They wouldn’t do that would they?
Cheers,
Dave B
60
David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz –
they are referring to the delegates at COP24.
20
Thanks Pat,
Any idea of how many and who they are?
Sounds like a great way to their “official” view implemented to me.
Cheers,
Dave B
20
imagine the damage still to be done to the Australian economy! ditch Paris now:
21 Dec: ABC: Australia projected to miss emissions reduction target set out in Paris Agreement
By political reporter Stephanie Dalzell
The Abbott Government pledged to slash emissions by at least 26 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 — a move solidified in 2016, when Malcolm Turnbull put pen to paper and ratified the Paris Agreement…
But the latest carbon emissions projections, released by the Department of Environment and Energy, predict Australia will only reduce its carbon emissions by 7 per cent by 2030 — well short of the target…
Professor Frank Jotzo, ANU: “On the basis of these projections, Australia would miss the Paris Agreement target by a very long margin, and that is before taking into account the international community would expect Australia to take on a stronger emissions reduction target.”
Professor Jotzo said while the figures showed electricity emissions were projected to fall, emissions in other sectors — like transport and so-called “fugitive” emissions (releases of gases from industry operations) were rising…
Labor frontbencher Mark Dreyfus seized on the figures, accusing the Government of evading the truth.
“What we need is a government other than this dysfunctional chaotic Government, that is prepared to put in place a climate policy,” he said…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-21/australia-to-fall-well-short-of-emissions-targets/10646522
21 Dec: news.com.au: AAP: Australia likely to miss 2030 Paris emissions target
Scott Morrison said Australia would meet the Paris global emissions target “in a canter”, but it’s likely we’d miss it were it not for an accounting trick.
VIDEO: 1min27sec: Climate Change: We’re heading for doom
The latest emissions projections released on Friday by the environment department show Australia is projected to emit 563 megatonnes (Mt) of climate pollution in 2030.
The lowest point of ambition for Australia’s Paris agreement target — 26 per cent below 2005 levels — is equivalent to 442Mt in 2030.
While electricity-sector emissions are expected to ease by 34Mt over the period, the report projects rises in the areas of direct combustion, transport, fugitive emissions, industrial processes and agriculture…
Electricity makes up 34 per cent of Australia’s emissions, meaning almost two thirds comes from other sources.
Environment Minister Melissa Price said the figures showed Australia would easily beat its 2020 emissions target, allowing it to carry over credit to 2030…
She said taking into account Australia’s over achievement during the first and second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, the abatement task to a 26 per cent target in 2030 is reduced to 328Mt…
Greens climate spokesman Adam Bandt said the minister’s comment showed the government planned to “cook the books” in a bid to meet the Paris emissions target.
“So far, the government’s only plan to meet Paris appears to be using dodgy accounting to cook the books and count dodgy ‘carry-over’ credits from Kyoto towards Paris,” Mr Bandt said…
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/australia-likely-to-miss-2030-paris-emissions-target/news-story/085fbdf76a2ede46cf8c54a2b8312135
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Professor Frank Jotzo – Professor of what?
What are his qualifications, especially to speak on climate, whether or not it changes?
And did the ABC accurately report his overall position I wonder?
Cheers,
Dave B
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Environmental Economics, or some such gobbledygook. Worked on the IPCC’s fifth assessment.
The fact that he is a member of the Australian Capital Territory’s Climate Change Council should probably tell you all you need to know.
( with help from WiKi )
51
Sea surface temperatures and atmosphere have failed to couple and reach threshold, so a back to back El Nino is definitely on the cards.
‘Most models indicate SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain near or above El Niño levels until at least the middle of 2019.’ BoM
If this pans out to be true then we’ll know the moon is a major player in ENSO behaviour.
41
In the northern hemisphere the punters are uncertain whether there will be a polar vortex split.
‘Given the uncertainties – whether the PV will split or not, the timing, the magnitude, location and relative strengths of the sister vortices (the Canadian model predicts the North American sister vortex will be stronger while the GFS predicts the Eurasian sister vortex will be stronger), I think caution is warranted in making a definitive forecast for the resultant weather from the predicted PV disruption.’
Judah Cohen (AER)
20
Taiwan is now having a yellow shirt protest , the ABC say it’s about taxes but what taxes it won’t or doesn’t say .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-27/taiwanese-launch-yellow-vest-movement-to-protest-taxes/10670700
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QUESTION:
Who do you think is the most gullible nation in terms of both sheeple and politicians with regards to believing in anthropogenic global warming?
I think both Australia and NZ would be close to the top for both sheeple and politicians. Perhaps Iceland as well?
41
Definitely OZ. I think our natural extremes of climate make our urbanised population, which is disconnected from the realities of our climatic history, more vulnerable to global warming propaganda. There is always a handy drought or flood or fire or hot day to point to as evidence that things are on the rocks climatically. Having younger generations increasingly ignorant of science but pumped full of green propaganda by our “education” system also helps to reinforce that impression.
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behind paywall:
Money managers: the new warriors of climate change
Financial Times-8 hours ago
Spreadsheet-analysing investors in control of trillion-dollar funds are forcing polluters to change…
And these activists are backed by trillions of dollars. … to tackle climate change, spearheading campaigns to cut carbon emissions, boost disclosure on climate…
—
above looks like a version of the late October Reuters’ piece:
31 Oct: CNBC: Unlikely activists: Money managers push for climate, social good
by Taylor, Reuters; Editing by Lauren Young and Dan Grebler
(The writer is a Reuters contributor. The opinions expressed are his own)
Do not scoff. The biennial Report on US Sustainable, Responsible and Impact Investing Trends is out, and the numbers are eye-popping.
There is now $12 trillion in money being managed in the United States with an eye to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria, according to the report by the US SIF, a nonprofit hub for sustainable investing. That is up 38 percent in just two years, from $8.7 trillion in 2016.
To put that in perspective, more than one in four dollars – or 26 percent of the $46.6 trillion in total U.S assets under professional management – consider ESG factors in investment selection…
“I’m struck by the fact that we are seeing growth across all types of investment vehicles, asset classes and styles of investing, says Meg Voorhes, US SIFs research director…
So what specific factors are driving ESG-oriented investment strategies? The reason most often cited by money managers was climate change, with $3 trillion in assets being steered with that issue in mind; followed by tobacco ($2.89 trillion), conflict risk such as repressive regimes ($2.26 trillion), human rights ($2.2 trillion), and transparency ($2.2 trillion)…
***Institutional investors noted a similar list of concerns -repressive regimes, tobacco and climate change were their top three…
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ratified by the United Nations in 2015 sparked investor interest in ESG, says Eccles ( visiting professor of management practice at Oxford Universitys Said Business School)…
Its the closest thing Earth has to a strategy, says Eccles. You cant go to an investor conference these days, without a panel on SDGs…READ ALL
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/reuters-america-unlikely-activists-money-managers-push-for-climate-social-good.html
01
the Reuters’ piece should be attributed to “Chris Taylor” (I left out the “Chris” somehow) – same guy who wrote the following:
13 Nov: Reuters: Sustainable investing’s secret weapon: Public pensions
by Chris Taylor
(The writer is a Reuters contributor. The opinions expressed are his own.)
Administrators of some of the country’s largest public pension funds have decided they are interested in sustainable investing – and the financial industry is listening.
Investing with a focus on environmental, social and governance issues – known as ESG – now amounts to $12 trillion in the United States, according to a new report from the nonprofit US SIF: The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment…
The No. 1 ESG issue for big money managers right now is climate change, according to the US SIF report…
“We are integrating sustainable investing thinking into all our research, decision-making and engagement with companies, helping them think about environmental and social topics,” said Beth Richtman, managing investment director for CalPERS’ sustainable investment program…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-money-investment-esg/sustainable-investings-secret-weapon-public-pensions-idUSKCN1NH24M
found the above in a link to his Reuters’ articles under his self-description on his Twitter page. scrolling down the page, it’s very clear what Taylor’s politics are, best described as anti-Trump:
Twitter: Chris Taylor, NYC, Reuters
https://twitter.com/christaylor_nyc
12
re US SIF:
Wikipedia: US SIF
US SIF: The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment is a United States-based membership association located in Washington, DC…
US SIF was formerly known as the Social Investment Forum. It changed its name on June 9, 2011…
In 2010, US SIF held its first annual conference entitled “Responsible Investing: Impact & Innovation.” The event was held June 8–10 in Washington, DC and featured Al Gore and Elizabeth Warren as speakers…
—
***don’t have time to look up more recent credits, but found this interesting:
2016: Governance & Accountability Institute: The Results Are In: Sustainable, Responsible, Impact Investing by U.S. Asset Managers At All-time High — $8 Trillion!
by ***Hank Boerner – Chairman & Chief Strategist, G&A Institute
***2016 survey sponsors included: Wallace Global Fund; Bloomberg LP; JP Morgan Chase & Co.; Calvert Investments; TIAA Global Asset Management; Candriam Investors Group; KKR; MacArthur Foundation; Neuberger Berman; Saturna Capital (and Amana Mutual Funds Trust); Bank of America; BlackRock; CBIS (Catholic Responsible Investing); Community Capital Management Inc.; ImpactUs; Legg Mason Global Asset Management / ClearBridge Investments; Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing; Sentinel Investments; Trillium Asset Management; Cerulli Associates; and, Walden Asset Management.
About US SIF: …SIF Members are investment management and advisory firms; mutual fund companies; research firms; financial planners and advisors; broker-dealers; non-profit associations; pension funds; foundations; community investment institutions; and other asset owners…
Governance & Accountability Institute is a long-time member organization of the U.S. Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment (US SIF)…
G&A Institute: ***Henry (Hank) Boerner
His worldview: “The critical issues of the 21st Century that challenge individual leaders and their institutions in all sectors can be grouped in the important ‘E,’ ‘S’ and ‘G’ buckets of issues. It’s really all about (e)nvironmental and (e)nergy responsibility and performance, how organizations address and manage their own and stakeholders’ (s)ocial or societal issues, and the organization’s corporate and institutional (g)overnance factors.”
“These ESG” Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are of growing important to investors and stakeholders, influencing reputations and valuations. Along with desired financial performance these signal “sustainability” (or not) to stockholders and stakeholders as they view corporations – those they invest in, partner with, do business with, supply, or work for — through the prism of the company’s ESG and Sustainability performance…
Hank is recognized for his expertise in dealing with a broad range of ESG factors and issues, especially those related to corporate and institutional governance, institutional accountability, corporate responsibility practices, social investment, environmental management, sustainable and responsible investment (SRI), shareholder activism, and more.
Tapping his decades of research and publishing experience for this work, he publishes in professional and trade publications (print and electronic), including Corporate Finance Review (***Thomson-Reuters), as contributing editor and corporate governance commentator; as editor of the monthly NIRI IR Update; as contributing editor to Investor Relations Newsletter; and other publications…
11
$12 Trillion…. just rolls off the tongue, doesn’t it? How much of it will go to tsunami relief?
30
On WUWT: “2018 will be the first year with no violent tornadoes in the United States”
I like the comment by Dave Burton:
Within a few years tornadoes will become “a very rare and exciting event.” “Children just aren’t going to know what tornadoes are.”
And Ron Long’s reply:
So, Dave, how will we explain what “Toto, we’re not in Kansas anymore” means?
70
I really don’t get the classification of “violent” as only including EF4 and 5s. An EF3 is quite violent and kills plenty. BTW the strongest tornado in N. America this year was a single EF-4 that struck up in Manitoba Canada. It was the first “violent” tornado in Canada since an EF-5 struck in Manitoba in 2007. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-08-06-north-america-first-ef4-tornado-in-canada-not-united-states
50
“the strongest tornado in N. America this year was a single EF-4 that struck up in Manitoba Canada”
More proof of
Global Warming,Climate Change,Climate Weirding, as the Heat moves north, so do the tornadoes.50
From the Skeptical Science (SkS) website:
‘An enhanced greenhouse effect from CO2 has been confirmed by multiple lines of empirical evidence. Satellite measurements of infrared spectra over the past 40 years observe less energy escaping to space at the wavelengths associated with CO2. Surface measurements find more downward infrared radiation warming the planet’s surface. This provides a direct, empirical causal link between CO2 and global warming.’
This doesn’t make sense to me. They say that surface measurements find more infrared warming the planets’ surface, yet less energy is escaping to space. Assuming that the CO2 molecule scatters infra red all round itself having absorbed infra red, how can this selectively result in more infrared being directed at the surface, yet less escaping to space?
Comments from those more knowledgeable please!
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Carbon500:
What they have found is proof that the level of CO2 is rising.
If, as you note, CO2 radiates in all directions then more CO2 will reduce the amount going out to space directly, so you could also claim that you’ve measured LESS IR going into space so the Earth is getting colder (hence radiating less). But you are measuring the increase in CO2 at the ‘top of the atmosphere’ where there is very little water vapour as it has all condensed and radiated its store of heat.
If you measure the wavelengths from the ground you are really measuring the temperature of the atmosphere. In the atmosphere CO2 doesn’t TRAP IR for more than about 0.5 millisecond before it radiates. In that time it is hit about 1,000 times by other molecules resulting in kinetic energy transfer between ALL molecules. This is the real greenhouse effect, any source of heat is shared about between all the molecules regardless of whether it was initial radiation or conduction (or even condensation). You cannot have oxygen, nitrogen, argon molecules at 273K and the rest of the heat stored in CO2 at over 350K.
But you are only measuring IR radiation from CO2 so more CO2 will mean more radiation. You aren’t measuring any reduction in energy elsewhere, so you cannot say that the atmosphere is warming, especially as the amount of radiation from CO2 is dwarfed by that from water vapour (about 97.3 to 1).
40
Thank you Graeme No.3 for your very clear and interesting reply, and also for avoiding a detailed mathematical one – my background is in biology, not physics or maths.
Your comment that ‘in the atmosphere CO2 doesn’t TRAP IR for more than about 0.5 millisecond before it radiates. In that time it is hit about 1,000 times by other molecules resulting in kinetic energy transfer between ALL molecules’ was also of interest, and fits with my understanding from what I’ve read elsewhere. Do you have a reference for the O.5 millisecond figure? I’ve been trying to find the experimental origins for this for quite a while, but unsuccessfully.
10
But wait ….
http://notrickszone.com/2018/12/27/92-new-papers-link-solar-forcing-to-climate-some-predict-a-solar-induced-global-cooling-by-2030/
10
Thanks, el gordo. I’ll do some more reading up on the solar side of things. The Met Office CET and other data certainly shows periods of warmth followed by cold over many years in centuries past – before CO2 became a favourite topic.
10
Carbon500–I am unaware of the details of the study that the Skeptical Science Website used to make the statement that appears in your comment. As such, my response may have very little to do with the actual experiments that Skeptical Science used. But with that disclaimer and taking the statement at face value, consider the following. The molecular structure of a CO2 molecule is such that a CO2 molecule at rest will absorb energy in a few very narrow-band (approaching zero bandwidth) frequency intervals located in the IR band. When absorbed, electromagnetic energy is converted into an increase in the vibrational kinetic energy of the molecule. When a molecule is in motion relative to an observer at rest, the narrow bandwidth absorption interval is shifted in frequency because the motion of the molecule induces a Doppler frequency shift on the incoming radiation. When thousands of molecules are in motion each inducing a slightly different frequency shift, the effect is to widen the narrow absorption interval. In turn, this implies that if you transmit electromagnetic energy over a narrow frequency interval centered on one of the “at-rest” absorption frequencies of a CO2 molecule, the molecules convert the electromagnetic energy to vibrational kinetic energy.
Now consider a photon (electromagnetic radiation) at a frequency that will be absorbed by one of the moving CO2 molecules. The absorbed photon will increase the vibrational kinetic energy of the absorbing molecule, which as Graeme No.3 points out, will rapidly be converted into translational kinetic energy of (1) the molecule doing the absorbing AND (2) nearby molecules of other gases (including other CO2 molecules). As all matter above zero degrees Kelvin does, these molecules will radiate energy; but only a small portion of that radiation will be in the narrow absorption band of the CO2 molecules. In essence, the absorption/re-radiation processes converts electromagnetic energy in a narrow band to electromagnetic energy in a much wider band. So when someone writes: “Satellite measurements of infrared spectra over the past 40 years observe less energy escaping to space at the wavelengths associated with CO2,” the statement says almost nothing about the total energy (over all electromagnetic frequencies) escaping to space, but rather applies only to the rate energy is radiated to space in a few very narrow bandwidth intervals—specifically those wavelengths (frequencies) corresponding to the Doppler-widened CO2 absorption intervals.
Thus it’s not surprising to me that as atmospheric CO2 increases, in the narrow CO2 absorption bands, the rate radiation from the surface of the Earth escapes to space decreases. This, however, is a far cry from saying atmospheric CO2 has reduced the total electromagnetic radiation escaping to space.
50
Very readable.
30
Reed Coray: thank you for your very interesting comments. The Doppler effect relating to IR emission and absorption I found fascinating, and as with Graeme No.3, thank you for sticking to a descriptive rather than mathematical discussion of what’s involved.
10
Temperatures over 30 in most places with some approaching 40 degrees.
How’s the AEMO grid coping?
With coal/gas delivering Qld demand of 6 GW and delivering 1 GW to NSW, wholesale price is around $60/MWhr.
NSW is short of electricity, so paying $115. Nice profits for Qld govt.
Vic prices are over $130, needing 1 GW of hydro from NSW/Tas. Tas price $70.
SA price around $130, forecast to rise to over $300 by mid afternoon.
Wind is delivering 2 GW, as is hydro.
Conclusion: coal and hydro cheap, wind/gas costly.
40
Will be interesting to see what happens if the wind drops in SA.
Luck of the weather is with them at the moment.
40
Jennifer Marohasy is a fine journalist and tells a convincing story.
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2018/12/seasons-greetings-tuvalu-and-thank-you-mr-kelly/
Craig Kelly is heroic and in a very real sense, brought the PM to his knees.
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Thanks for putting that up.
Good to read of a substantial fight back for a change.
It also shows up the underhanded manipulation of our Parliament that makes money grow on trees for some and dumps the rest of us into Electricity Slavery.
KK
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That was a good read…thanks EG.
30
A benevolent dictatorship.
‘Five years ago, President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative based on Chinese philosophy. Since in the past, the Chinese people described the world order as tianxia, which literally means “all under the sun”, Xi proposed to build a community with a shared future for humankind. This new type of international relations is different from the West-dominated international relations, because it is mutually beneficial in nature.
‘In his book Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington has aptly described the West-dominated international relations of the past almost 500 years as relations among Western nations. Indeed, World War II resulted in the creation of bipolar world, but it transformed into a unipolar world after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.’
China Daily
20
Interestingly, WW2 is still going, recently there have been discussions to end it…..
WW3 cant start until WW2 is over…
20
A weapon of mass destruction saw an end to WW2 and mutually assured deterrence (MAD) has prevented WW3 from breaking out.
10
Big Brother
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-28/microchipped-school-uniforms-monitor-students-in-china/10671604
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‘Mathematics lecturer Clio Cresswell foresees a world divided into a numerate priesthood and an innumerate mass.’ Oz
10