JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
Jo appreciates your support to help her keep doing what she does. This blog is funded by donations. Thanks!
Follow Jo's Tweets To report "lost" comments or defamatory and offensive remarks, email the moderators at: support.jonova AT proton.me
Statistics
Well…just turned on and nobody here yet. 🙂
It wasn’t too hot a day today but the deciduous trees are starting to look their tatty summer selves in some places…other ones where it’s damper look fresh and green and give lovely cool shade. I parked under a wonderful large plane tree in town by the Ultima Thule creek; such a differnce in temperature from out in the sun on the new concrete near the RSL.
71
This comment I’d originally half intended to make on the last thread’s discussion about whether trees produced warming or cooling.
41
Have you done the correlation for me yet Annie?
As I said, I get r = 0.97.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/01/save-the-world-and-raze-some-forests/#comment-2096918
30
I can’t say I have Sceptical Sam! Maybe when I am less tired than I have been lately; too much early rising, thanks to the sulphur-crested thugs waking me up (I am a night owl usually, not an early morning lark) so that I have to get up to chase them off the fruit trees and any other trees that they feel like vandalising. I stay up and water the garden while it is cool.
Those thuggish birds vandalised apples and pears, birches, oaks and my Aleppo Pine this week. The local nursery recommended party poppers…ha! They, the birds, didn’t take long to work out that was fake! Today I tried rattling a bit of roofing iron…they didn’t like that. Eventually I started to bang a wooden spoon on a metal saucepan…it’s all getting a bit lunatic! Early today, when the cockies had left us in peace for a while, I heard a couple of shots at a nearby property. Rapid return of cockies to our place…sigh.
62
I’ve tried that really early morning watering trick Annie. Gave it up when “All that wriggles is not hose” Sleepy eyes are not as alert as they should be
30
Early morning hoses are stiff in the cool air too, making them hard to handle easily. A quiet period of contemplation while the watering-can fills is more to my liking, but time consuming.
A large striped ‘hose’ was in our chook house recently. It had some egg shapes within, no wonder we weren’t getting many eggs (only four chooks atm).
31
Have you tried rubber snakes in the trees?
10
Cold and wet in Perth today. Folks are saying that it’s unusual weather for our normally hottest month, but I’m thinking that Milankovitch has finally beaten Arrhenius…
91
Either that, or the procession of the environmentalists is catching up with the precession of the equinoxes.
60
Here in NW England descended to a frost, after a lovely January day with a high of 2C. Sunshine and no wind. Perfect weather for working outside, as one does not get overheated.
30
OK.. AEMO now have LOR3 notices up. That means that they are forecasting load shedding in the next day or two. Going to get interesting
51
They have just updated and gone back to Lor 2 .
10
There is going to be a lot of magic needed to keep the system running the next two days, I think
30
In Vic the stand in premier said the grid was fine but load shedding might be necessary but no reason was given. LOL.
50
The grid might be fine but load shedding, i.e. power-cuts, blackouts, whatever, is definitely not fine in this day and age. The progress of civilisation has changed into regress. Perhaps that’s what Dopey Dan really means, just so long as he and his cronies are alright, thank you taxpayers all.
52
Just read this garbage from the ABC about the lack of reserve and note they omit why we are in this position , Hazelwood!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-24/aemo-takes-action-to-limit-risk-of-blackouts-in-victoria-and-sa/10743996
50
The green grifters are squealing that coal-fired generation is off-line during the hottest days- ever. Deliberately even!
“Reports began emerging on Twitter on Tuesday that a generator had been taken offline unexpectedly at AGL Energy’s Loy Yang A coal-fired power station. These were confirmed by the gen-tailer on Wednesday as the result of a tube leak that could take days to fix.
EnergyAustralia’s Yallourn coal-fired power station is also running one generator short, after one of the plant’s four units was taken out of the mix for what is, remarkably, scheduled maintenance.
The timing is poor for market operator AEMO, which – faced with temperatures in the high 30°Cs for the coming few days – is forecasting a ‘Lack of Reserve level 2’ (LOR2) for Thursday afternoon in Victoria and South Australia.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-units-cut-out-as-report-warns-hele-plants-just-as-unreliable-23879/
But, why is it still hot?
Coal-fired energy is down b/c of maintenance=(less carbon (sic)), SA has blown up it’s power stations, rooftop solar is all time high, sunbeam & sea breeze collector farm installation is everywhere …
If I am expected to ‘believe’ in the 97% science, where is the evidence renewable energy can prevent, or slow down, apocalyptic global warming?
40
I believe now they are warning of power tripping out in a line that may be affected by the bushfires in Tasmania, not sure if this will hurt the extension plug into Victoriastan but if it does it will cascade into SA and NSW .
00
I find this ironic in the extreme.
They complain like all get out that we need to be relying less and less on coal fired power, and yet as soon as they need that extra power, they complain that a coal fired power plant’s Unit is off line, proving once and for all that they actually ….. ARE relying on coal fired power to supply the power that they need.
And as to Units off line, there are only three Units down in the three States still with coal fired power. Three out of 48. Currently, of the 2200 wind towers, almost 1700of them are off line.
Man, 48 coal fired Units, just shut ’em all down.
It’ll only take an hour before they realise what coal fired power actually is delivering, well, seconds really, and what will they do then?
No power, so nothing, not even mobile phone towers to relay their complaints, and worst of all, no Facebook to moan in alphabet soup.
Tony.
30
No comments on the recent Ian Plimer article in The Oz on the 97% Consensus and Geoff Edward’s stupid response article? Certainly created a comment storm…
50
They took him apart in today’s “The Australian”. (hard copy).
I thought Ian McRobert from Indooroopilly, Qld nailed it with a smile:
But, interestingly, nobody nailed Edward’s nonsense about Mrs Thatcher’s so-called support of the the meme. As I recall, her position was adopted to put the Communist inspired coal miners’ strike and other mongrel acts under the pump. She succeeded, however, with unintended consequences.
92
The Coal Miners strike was indeed a Communist attempt to bring down the Government. But the real reason for Prime Minister Thatcher forcing the issue was that coal requirements were falling (Britain had been switching to gas for electricity since the early 1970s and for domestic heating since the 1950s) and the subsidies to the nationalized coal industry rising. Any responsible Government would have done the same.
Margaret Thatcher had backed away from a confrontation in February 1981. After winning a 140 seat majority and ensuring massive stockpiles of coal at power stations, the strike started towards the end of March, at the start of spring. The miners union failed to gain support of other Trades Unions by failing to hold a national ballot among its members.
This was a political battle that the Communist miners leader Arthur Scargill lost due to strategic blunders and being out maneuvered by a far brighter opponent. Britain was far better for the defeat of the miners.
60
Where did Wilson fit in Kevin? I have read where the precipitous decline in Britain as a world power and even as a viable economy happened on his watch. One must concede the difficulties of being a “victor” in the most expensive war ever and thus having no access to the Marshall Plan would make things difficult for any government.
20
The 1000+ comments on the online version were very enlightening, with the vast majority supporting Plimer and lambasting Edwards for his meandering response which didn’t attempt to disprove what Plimer said. How Edwards used his position as head of a Qld scientific organisation was to me quite wrong.
50
We had a blackout for a couple of hours recently. It gave me a chance to test out our new changover switch arrangement to get the generator straight onto the house wiring, and also to experiment a bit with different loads.
We only have 3.4kVA unit and I thought I may be underdone (Gentech/Honda petrol). Happily, it ran a large split system, 2 ceiling fans and a large 2 door fridge. So feeling a lot happier about comfortably surviving outages on very hot days.
Also tried it out separately on the house water pump. Handled the starting surge fine with repeated tests. Good to know we have another hose apart from the fire pump if we chose to stay in a fire.
Also have an arrangement to pump fuel from vehicles using an old fuel pump, so I dont have to be quite so attentive to maintaining spare containers in the garage.
Just thought I would mention it if others are thinking about generators and havent taken the plunge yet
60
Would love to see photos of the switching arrangement and details of costing and brand etc Yarpos .
20
Hi Robert
Cant do photos here , so if you send an email to my username at hotmail I can send you some.
20
Done and thanks
00
2 Hondas. 2kva each. 1 noisy Chinese 4kva
Enough to keep the refrigerators going and the neighbours and the TV but you can be sure none of the industrials will be allowed work. A communist state. There must be light for the tennis and the cricket or people overseas would think we are mad. Which we are.
70
Do you have a dedicated generater shed? I’ve been thinking about getting a gennie but the total costs have put me off.,( Shed, underground wiring to the house etc) or do you just drag it out when you need it?
40
Hi Sambar
The gen sits in the garage on a garden trolley with pump up tyres. I wheel it out out when needed , its only about 20 metres to the meter box. The only real effort is to drop it on the ground. The trolley ($120 in Bunnings) is rated about about 4x the weight of the gen. I think it would disassemble itself if I tried to run the gen while still on it though.
40
It is a sad state of affairs when folks in Australia have to buy backup generators for failures in a National Grid. In Britain, the last large-scale power cuts were in the great storm of 1987. But in the early 1970s they were common place. This was not due to incompetent ideological government policies, but more to hard left trades unions trying to bring down a democratically elected government. A few homes opted for oil-fired central heating, but instead of electricity households used candles.
For major businesses it was different. Major bank offices, large sorting offices, major hospitals and airports invested in backup diesel generators to guarantee power supplies.
I can still remember the winter of 1970-71 having to be ready for school by 8am for the power going off. It was still dark at that hour. By early 1974 power supplies had got so bad that “non essential” businesses were limited to a three day week, with no excess hours permitted. Even the TV went off at 10.30pm.
40
Agree, but i dont think its a widespread thing (yet)
We have a bit of a family ethic about not becoming victims, so we tend to do this sort of stuff.
The other issue for us is that we live in a bushfire area and one of the things you lose in a fire is power. We have a fire pump (Honda powered pump that will jet water out 25 meters or so) but its good to know that we can also run the standard garden taps also , so we can set up sprinklers and have them running.
40
Yarpos, Having never lived in a dangerous bushfire area I know little about them. How long is it important to have your pumps running? I’d guess at least 15 minutes before you expect to be hit but the high intensity fire would be over in a few minutes. The rule of thumb must be “as much as possible through fixed sprinklers” because you can’t be out in the open using a fire hose. Would a 1,000 gal water tank be enough?
00
Dont think there is one answer to that question.
In our case we sit on the edge of village facing cow paddocks. We have the lowest bushfire assessment rating, our main risk is a fast grass fire.
At this time of year:
– firepump run and tested every couple of months
– Hoses laid out beside the garage
– Srinklers capable of near 360degress left out near house, just need hose attached
– 1000litres would be OK for spot fires for a while but no its not much really
we have the fire pump drawing from one of three 22,500 litre tanks, with a 4th in the far cornet of our little block
In my case, in my situation , I expect to be out in the open sheltered by fan spray and the water tanks, however I am not in wooded country. I would not dream of doing that anywhere in the trees.
If the forecast is dire enough we may just damp stuff down and leave and trust to luck and insurance.
00
We were in that same blackout Yarpos. It was a good opportunity to check how things were working for real. We rely on various pumps for our household supply. Sambar, we can hook up the gennie with a proper attachment to the house mains box on the shed…made sure that was part of the arrangement when we rebuilt.
30
“In the midst of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a rare instance of bipartisan energy policy success mostly got lost in the noise.
President Donald Trump signed a bill into law Monday aimed at accelerating development of a new generation of advanced nuclear reactors. The Republican administration’s efforts to revive the coal industry clash with Democrats’ plans to address climate change and transition to clean energy. So this marks a rare instance of cooperation between the two parties, and the second instance of cooperation on advanced nuclear in the last four months.”
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bipartisan-law-advanced-nuclear
90
In the UK the plans to provide carbon free nuclear capacity took another hit. Hitachi looks likely to pull out of a £16bn project for a 2.9GW nuclear power station at Wylfa, Anglesey.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/10/uk-nuclear-plant-hitachi-wylfa-anglesey
Hitachi has already spent nearly £2bn on the project.
It is only two months since Toshiba wrote off £125m on preparations for a 3.4GW nuclear power station at Moorside in Cumbria.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/08/toshiba-uk-nuclear-power-plant-project-nu-gen-cumbria
Together the two projects would have provided around 13% of the UK’s electricity supply. Now we will have to rely on intermittent wind. Maybe us Brits should eat more meat and dairy products to increase the impact of bovine flatulence.
20
From the web.
Here’s a small sample of how many coal plants there are in the world today The EU has 468 plants building 27 more for a total of 495
Turkey has 56 plants building 93 more total 149
South Africa has 79 building 24 more total 103
India has 589 building 446 more total 1036
Philippines has 19 building 60 more total 79
South Korea has 58 building 26 more total 84
Japan has 90 building 45 more total 135
AND CHINA has 2363 building 1171 total 3534
AUSTRALIA is planning to shut down their
remaining 6 plants and save the planet !!
Go Australia
151
We’ll save them all. With our coal. Our gas. Our iron ore. Our sheep. Our cattle. Our wheat. Hold on. That doesn’t make sense.
80
Try here
https://endcoal.org/global-coal-plant-tracker/
20
I wonder if it ever occurs to them that they are tracking the success of , and necessity for coal. They probably set it up thinking coal was falling off a cliff in non virtue oriented countries.
10
KK your numbers seem high what is your source?
20
Hi Brian,
I can’t vouch for the numbers. They were part of something an acquaintance picked up on the net.
KK
31
Hi Keith
Best not to post unverified numbers. Gives the alarmists a target.
I like these two sites.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants
https://endcoal.org/global-coal-plant-tracker/
The numbers are still overwhelming
Cheers
Brian
00
Hi Brian,
The real issue is the supposed process or mechanism that allows it to heat the atmosphere.
There just isn’t one.
Even if there was, the precautionary principle pushed me to this:
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/01/midweek-unthreaded-57/#comment-2097110
KK
00
I’m always concerned about the numbers quoted, as it’s never clear if they are plants or generators. I believe that most of the numbers come from the German environmental group that tracks this, and I think they are generators.
30
Don’t get too hung up about the numbers of power stations.
The amount of power generated from coal in China continues to grow – UNABATED.
50
Thanks tooright.
The main points about the table are that Australia has a very small profile wrt coal powered generators compared with the rest of the world and that coal fired power is not going away.
Normally I wouldn’t post this sort of stuff but it came by email and was there. It fits in with some of the other posts I’ve put up recently in protest at the blog cloggers.
The main focus of the blog should be on the fact that CO2, natural or human origin, does not “heat” or warm the atmosphere in any way.
10
If the Australian Government was really serious about “saving the planet” it would shut down Australian coal production. In 2017 coal exports were US$40bn or 3% of GDP. In 2018 average global coal prices were much higher than 2017, so the figure is now likely higher.
But shutting down coal production would likely prevent the objective of having Government finances in surplus by 2020/21 fiscal year.
It appears to be OK in Australia to impose costs on the ordinary people to virtue signal, but impact on Government financial targets is a no-go area.
20
The dogs are barking an 11 May election. All care but no responsibility. 🙂
20
heat piece is full of temps, unlike the cold piece that follows which has one temp at the very end of the final sentence:
23 Jan: ABC: Victoria and SA brace for all-time temperature records as BOM warns ‘nowhere is going to escape the heat’
By Camron Slessor, Stephanie Ferrier and Sean Wales
In South Australia, Ceduna reached its hottest day on record today with the mercury climbing to 48.4 degrees Celsius just before 3:00pm — half-a-degree hotter than the record set in 1990.
“South Australia is once again experiencing a severe heatwave,” Jonathan Fischer, a Bureau of Meteorology emergency services meteorologist, said.
“Nowhere is going to escape the heat tomorrow.”…
Richard Russell from the BOM said temperatures were going to be “nothing short of oppressive”, particularly in northern Victoria where the mercury is expected to reach up to the mid-40s tomorrow.
“We’ll see those conditions spread across most of the state for Friday (with) incredibly high minimum temperatures on Thursday night … in Melbourne we expect the minimum temperature to only get down to 29C, much of the state will barely dip below 30C during that period,” he said.
“Melbourne’s all-time overnight record is 30.6C, so it’s getting pretty close.”…
Mr Fischer said the record temperature for Adelaide was expected to be pushed during the day tomorrow, with a forecast temperature of 45C expected.
“For the eastern and northern suburbs it’s likely to be a little bit hotter than that, 46 degrees, so close to the all-time record for Adelaide which is 46.1 degrees back in 1939,” he said…
A cool change is expected to move across South Australia on Friday and into the weekend…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-23/no-escape-from-heat-with-record-temps-tipped-for-sa-and-vic/10743210
original headline on ABC “Just In” – Niagara Falls blanketed in ice and snow after cold snap. changed to:
23 Jan: ABC: Niagara Falls region freezes as storm system sweeps through North America
ABC/Reuters
Photographers are flocking to Niagara Falls after an icy storm system left the region looking like a scene out of the Disney movie Frozen.
Snow and ice has built up around the iconic waterfall, creating stunning scenes for visitors…
Visitors willing to brave the cold were rewarded with incredible photo opportunities — but while social media was abuzz with the “frozen falls”, it is highly unlikely Niagara Falls will actually freeze over…
On Wednesday, a Canadian weather alert warned of a “band of snow mixed with ice pellets” which was expected to mix with “freezing rain”.
“Freezing rain warnings are issued when rain falling in sub-zero temperatures creates ice build-up and icy surfaces,” the alert said.
About 2 to 5 centimetres of snow, considered light snow by the Canadian weather bureau, was forecast, along with temperatures that felt like -5 degrees Celsius.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-23/niagara-falls-blanketed-in-ice-and-snow/10743992
30
It’s unfortunate that Ceduna’s temp record only goes back to April, 1939. Jan 1939 may well have been hotter.
40
Heatwave?
It is warm today here in Sunny Adelaide, but tomorrow is tipped to be sub 30 and the early parts of this week were simply ‘summer’.
I was mildly under the impression that a heatwave was several back to back days of heat in excess of the accepted average.
Now we get what? 15 hours of hot and it is the end of the world?
10
Climate change is endangering one of our best loved species.
The drive to reduce carbon dioxide levels by reducing our reliance on fossil fuels is having unintended consequences as we close coal mines across the planet.
A spokesman for SPOD, the Society for the Protection of Dragons, Mr. Draed Goke explained;
“Dragons have survived the millennia, even the extinction of the dinosaurs, but as coal disappears the Dragon population is decreasing to dangerously low levels and may soon face extinction unless their food source is protected. We call on governments around the globe to ensure adequate supplies of our staple diet are made available. We particularly call on the Welsh Government to keep available supplies of Welsh Steam Coal, the most healthy food for our kind, to ensure the national symbol of Wales continues to flourish.
Copyright Adrian K Kerton 2018
Names, characters, businesses, places, events, locales, and incidents are either the products of the author’s imagination or used in a fictitious manner. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, or actual events is purely coincidental.
10
Re KK’s list of existing and projected coal plants above…
The great thing about being a conspiracy theorist (which I am) is that I no longer have to believe that coal-rich Australia is heedlessly funding its war on coal by exporting coal. It is deliberately funding its war on coal by exporting coal. While not based on sense, reason or experience, the crippling of our energy is not a blunder. It’s a plan.
Nobody beyond the commentariat is serious about the whirlygigs, the solar scams, Uphill Snowy, Oceanlinx, carbon capture, Mt Lithium etc. All concerned with implementing these turkeys know they are turkeys from the get-go. All know that Gupta is not going to make steel in Whyalla without coking coal from Tahmoor. They know Big Green is about wrecking while plundering. They know, they know, they know.
This is why I think a few brown-outs and black-outs are on the way even if they’re not needed. We are going to be conditioned to accept energy poverty, and that can only happen by small steps in a country which has had abundant and reliable power for yonks. It takes time and patience to erode the expectations of a huge and dominant middle class, and still more time and patience to erode the middle class itself.
My favourite example of boiling-frog condtioning is Asgardia, the space kingdom of ineffable cheesiness. A mere ten years ago it would have been the object of ridicule and satire. Now it is well-funded, internationally respected and supported even by NASA (of consensus fame). After long and persistent conditioning people now see Asgardia as some sort of vague and ideal future where hard borders and shallow nationalism are irrelevant. This despite the fact that Asgardia is truly absurd and comical, and not a little sinister.
I should add two things. While I’m an unashamed conspiracy theorist, I do not pretend to know the motives behind all the globalist tripe. I’m one of the living and not equipped to understand the Undead and their motives. Also, I believe globalism, the NWO and Agenda 21, after much mischief, will simply crash. Because humanity. So cheer up.
70
In a culture of hard working well educated people, things can still go wrong, but in a culture of ignorance they are bound to.
I propose that the phrase “google it” be regulated like alcohol, and restricted to those 18 and older.
OK, that’s dumb, but the pint is that we aren’t teaching our young people much of anything anymore except
how to use electronic tools to navigate their social world, and to “trust their feelings”.
They have instant access to all the world’s knowledge….and all the world’s foolishness. Foolishness wins all to often when poured
into an empty vessel.
IF you started life between WWII and the Korean police action, you were likely educated in a school system then for the most part
still emulated the training of the prior century. Let us think back a bit, even if, as old farts, we romanticize.
This schools know that a significant number of kids would have their education truncated at eighth grade, especially in rural areas —
though the goal of a universal high school diploma was explicit. It was recognized that colleges were selective, and would take only a few,so more that two thirds would be earning a living immediately after high school and the experience was tailored to this reality.
In elementary school, reading, writing, and arithmetic were paramount, with considerable memorization and aggressive cultural education. Typically in eighth grade there was a ‘civics’ class, or something similar to explicitly prepare those who were leaving for citizenship. In what is now middle school you would have the first shops classes (mostly for boys, yes) and the home economics classes
(mostly for girls). You would have memorized and recited quite a little bit; multiplication tables to the 12s, 100 or so of the countries on the globe, in the US the states and the capitals and the presidents, and a few noteworthy speeches or documents. You would have a structured (and sanitized, admittedly) view of your country’s history and could outline a timeline from the founding to the present.
The majority who continued to high school were universally required to take a variety of courses. Physical education was required of all. Most took a foreign language. In many schools Latin was still required. In many schools basic shop courses were available if not required, and students could acquire a facility in wood, or metal, or electronics, or engines, sufficient to handle an entry level job in in industries of the day. Music and art, in at least primitive forms were taught. Civics was repeated with a higher information load, and a world history introduction was typically required. Math was essentially algebra, geometry, and trigonometry; think surveyor, machinist, artillery officer.
In short, after a dozen years one was expected to know a bunch of stuff, and be capable of being a responsible citizen and earning a living.
While there is no doubt many were emotionally prepared to embrace mass delusions; many were also prepared to be skeptical. Socialization made all of life a compromise; if we squashed inappropriately the ambitions of some (and we did) we were at least dealing with life’s realities.
Our parents were “the greatest generation”. An awful lot of them died creating our modern world. Many more would go through adulthood scarred in some way. We were taught to respect our parents experience and listened and learned.
Mosomoso hits a nail on the head here; there are huge segments of the modern world based or the structured ignorance created by our modern educational system. M seems to think they will founder on the innate human capacity to learn and exist in reality.
I sure hope so. There was modest pain in high school but it was learning in a laboratory designed for the purpose. Life is not so kind. It appears that 15% of Venezuela has to be exiled and 50% has to starve in learning, again, that socialism fails when one runs out of other people’s money, and 10% has to die or be tortured or other wise abused to learn that socialists nearly always resort to violence to preserve power after their promises fail.
The biggest part of ‘the conspiracy’ is the left taking over the schools.
110
I like a statement I saw on another website: “In ’44, eighteen-year-olds charged up the beaches of Normandy. Today, eighteen-year-olds need ‘safe spaces’ in case someone offends their fragile egos.”
111
At 19, 20 and 21 I was in charge of maintaining airport communications and navigation aids at remote sites and I didnt have a problem with that. During WW2 some 19 year olds flew heavy bombers. Still trying to help young folk understand Ohm’s law – they find it really difficult to quickly work out figures in their heads.
60
Would someone please tell me what are the insurmountable problems which will break out if the UK actually goes out of the EU on March 29th without any agreement i.e a Hard Brexit.
I remember that the “sky was going to fall in” if the Leave case won the referendum a couple of years back. The Leave case did get up but very little of any consequence occurred afterwards. Yes, the Pound did steadily fall somewhat but life went on.
Now we have similar dire consequences being conjured up as the inevitable result if a Hard Brexit happens. Isn’t it time somebody gets up and tells the British just what will happen, and why the situation is now so different to that just after the referendum. The innuendo I have read so far is amazingly fact free.
The main area of difficulty that I can foresee concerns the relations between Northern Ireland and Eire and the EU, and the operation of the border separating NI and Eire. I think this will be messy for a while but will get sorted out with a suitable compromise which won’t suit everyone, but will be acceptable.
The primary principle which I think the UK must apply rigorously is reciprocity. From day one if the EU wants to say put a 20% impost onto some UK originated item them The UK must immediately respond with a similar impost on the equivalent item being imported from the EU. As I understand it the balance of trade between the two is heavily in favour of the EU so they have more to lose than the UK. I am also sure that the UK will be able to obtain anything they now get from the EU from somewhere else in the world at a reasonably competitive cost.
There will be difficulties and disruptions but they will be worth it in the end, and may force the UK population to “get real” with their place in the world.
David Slee
80
Don’t know what the insurmountable problems are, but I’d characterise all the reporting as lamenting the uncertainty that a “no deal” Brexit provokes. Always have to laugh at this (it’s often trotted out in the renewables nonsense too). Given the standard line about nothing being certain but death and taxes, I’m pretty sure I favour less certainty.
50
What is the problem with a hard UK/Ireland border. As I understand the situation, a large majority of Northern Irish citizens are employed as public servants. What trade does the UK have with Ireland? I wonder how many illegal immigrants arrive in the UK via Ireland. The Irish wanted independence for the UK so let them have it.
40
“The Irish wanted independence for the UK so let them have it.”
Not all of them do. There was a bit of a ruckus a while ago about that , spiced with religion.
20
And the border between Eire and N Ireland was always porous anyway!
10
Have you watched “Brexit The Movie”? Well worth the hour. The number of EU regulations on simple items such as toothbrushes is astounding, plus the fact that British fishermen are not allowed to catch fish off their home ports.
But I believe the greatest risk is if they decide to ignore the will of the people and hold a second referendum. It could then be said that the government is ignoring the wishes of the general population, and that may lead to problems such as France is now experiencing.
60
David, I sort of had a run at this a couple of weeks ago. When the U.K. joined the Common Market, not the E.U. ( that bit came about by political skullduggery ) it was going to spell distaster for Britains trading partners of the day, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sth Africa, Rhodesia, India to name a few, were all going to be devastated by the lost of export markets. Well the affect was felt by some industries, particularly the fruit canneries in the Goulburn Valley were very dependant on British markets,but this is called change. Note we just ( as did the other countries ) alter strategies, form new alliances, create new markets and compete with the other Commonwealth countries as we always had done. The only thing that really changed was the end users. To my knowledge most of the Commonwealth countries have already offered to pick up any demand for goods formally supplied by the E.U. so from a goods and services point of view, the only thing that will change are countries of orign. minor disruptions of short duration. Probably considered major concerns in this day and age where everyone wants everthing immediately. I am certain that 12 months after leaving the E.U. no one in Britain will notice any different whatsoever.
50
‘Heatwave conditions across Victoria and South Australia will put significant strain on the electricity network.’ Oz
50
Power restrictions in this country are the result of stupid policies and decisions by both sides of politics and an apathetic electorate.
If you wrote of power restrictions in Australia 20 years ago, you would have been committed to an institution.
60
No, its all down to unreliable coal, I read it in The Age. Not sure where they think power has come from over the last 70 years.
50
Fauxfax spewing out that mantra again. ‘Raised eyebrows and cynical expression’ 🙁
40
It is 18.5° degrees C in the Wheatbelt of WA at the moment.
40
Bragging Rights.
00
Len,
A climate scientist might ask whether that is metric centigrade or imperial centigrade?
00
Heatwave?
It is listed as being in the 20s here tomorrow.
I was previously under the impression a heatwave had a formal definition and pretty sure one of the significant requirements was it lasted longer than 12 hours.
20
You’d almost call it “balmy” here in NQ. It’s been OK since Xmas.
00
The Power of Human Origin CO2.
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/12/new-report-renewables-indirectly-make-electricity-more-expensive-so-abc-tells-australia-the-opposite/#comment-2086120
There is one main thing used to prevent voters and taxpayers from seeing actual detail of the CAGW prison we are in: and that one thing is Complexity. The atmosphere and the analysis of the mass, heat and momentum transfer within is extremely complex and this allows “scientists”™ to hoodwink politicians and voters.
One way of assessing the truth about CAGW is to ask What If.
What if CO2 actually Was an active “greenhouse gas”.
Part of the answer is in the link above.
An expanded comment with the consequences of the analysis will be given below later.
KK
21
A more detailed QA along with the assessment of the consequences for humanity’s part in the recent “great warming” from about 1860.
While it was a warming, it should more accurately be termed a “recovery”.
KK
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/12/new-report-renewables-indirectly-make-electricity-more-expensive-so-abc-tells-australia-the-opposite/#comment-2096991
40
Lot of movement going on at the AEMO dash board, I’m trying to interpret the new Lor3 message is it saying load shedding ?
Market Notice 66593
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Vic region for the following period:
From 1500 hrs to 1530 hrs 25/01/2019.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 27 MW at approximately 1500 hrs.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Danushka Sooriyadasa
AEMO Operations
40
What is an LO3 condition?
00
From what I understand it goes
Lor1 first level of pain in the tummy that something bads going to happen to the power .
Lor2 , pain is getting worse some mild sweating and confusion .
Lor3 , frequent wet passing of wind and profuse sweating in the knowledge you regret having a hand in letting some coal fired power stations close .
Then comes Rert and by now you’re desperate to get to the dunny while frantically trying to coax pensioners into turning off their aircons .
After that I believe it’s throw a dart at a map of Victoriastan and SA and flick the corresponding switch .
20
it is now 15:40 and prices for Vic have hit $14,500.00, SA at $13, 481
20
Has the ext cord into NSW tripped out , no power is flowing between Victoriastan and NSW
10
Not sure where to ask this, but it is not a DAVOS question.
We have had Shorten up here in Qld this week and there has been a buzz about somehow we need to be developing a hydrogen economy.
I thought most of the commercial supplies currently available for fuelling these “green hydrogen schemes” all relied on breaking down hydrocarbons from Natural Gas, Oil or Coal with only a small amount coming from electrolysis. So if Labor are promoting a hydrogen economy 1) where will this hydrogen be coming from; 2) if electrolysis then where will the electricity come from to do this if we don’t have cheap power?
Like most political statements these days there was absolutely no detail contained in the announcements.
60
Think we covered this before and yes they would use coal fired power to convert coal to hydrogen from memory , also the costs involved and energy needed it makes no sense .
40
That it’s so, steam reforming of methane of which one of the waste products is CO2 to create a fuel which underperforms the original fuel methane.
00
Cryptic Crossword Clue in THe Age today.
A Party for vegetables ONLY?
GREENS.
How good is that. I might make my own sign and take to the pre polling booth at the next election.
30
ABC do read this blog it seems .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-01-24/timber-can-be-more-sustainable-than-other-building-materials/10736496
10
For the solar enthusiasts …..
https://imgur.com/9mwzJmV
I particularly like the Gleissberg.
30
Just watching the AEMO dashboard it looks like a train wreck about to happen .
10
$13 – 14 thou/MW. The coal states are 10% of that.
00
The problems with Brexit which I originally referred to are ones only seen by those who really want to remain in the EU. Staying IN for them creates no uncertainties for them, while any Brexit does create all sorts of uncertainties.
On the other hand I see the Hard Brexit as having the least uncertainty compared with any May deal or other imagined half-way house deal. These will always have huge uncertainties with future changes to EU Rules and Regulations but without any UK input into them. Thanks for your thoughts Robert Swan, but I still find myself wondering what the worriers see the problems to be. Perhaps the problems are only Phantoms after all, and all their angst is really only their inability to face up to change!
Sambar gave a good rundown on the way we tackled the unwelcome entry of the UK into the Common Market.With a positive attitude we didn’t find it too hard to come up with new strategies and put them into play. This is what the UK must face up to with Brexit, and I’m sure that if they do they will come out of it all quite OK.
The mind-blowing proliferation of regulations by the EU referred to by Graeme#4 was the catalyst for UKIP. I am sure all those in the UK who voted OUT were well aware of that situation even then. What I find disturbing is the large number of UK people who seem to have no concern for the national sovereignty they have lost already let alone what will be lost with any continuation of relations with the EU into the future.
Coming finally to the Irish question, I think this is a very complex situation, not amenable to simplistic attitudes as expressed by Ian1946 and Yarpos. Sure historically the catholic South wanted independence from the UK, but with many decades now of UK and Eire common membership in the EU there has developed a strong coming together between the North and the South. While both nations were in the EU there wasn’t a problem. Now with the prospect of the UK leaving the EU Eire finds itself in a real bind as there has been a rapid interdependence between them. There is a big trade inbalance in favour of the UK and much of this comes from NI.
This whole problem is made worse because there is no other part of the EU having an island divided between two nations where one wants to stay in the EU while the other wants OUT. If those two parts want any real level of integration then they work out where the real border with the EU is situated.
David E. Slee.
20
I personally think a hard brexit would be fine, there would maybe be a year of bother but the EU needs Britain, there would be a free trade agreement, and I think there would be FTA with the US and Australia within months.
20
Good summary David.
10
Let’s see how Europe manages the nightmare of Irish intransigence; Juncker might go on the wagon.
10
Seems there were/are a number of “load shedding” events in Melbournistan including my suburb.
20
Ian Wilson’s hypothesis is looking good, this from BoM.
‘Recent observations and climate model outlooks suggest the immediate risk of El Niño has passed.
‘However, there remains an increased likelihood that El Niño will develop later in 2019. The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has therefore moved to El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter.’
00
The extra CO2 in the atmosphere is caused by outgassing from warm oceans.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/74c6xxrxn1kjwqm/AGU%20Fig12.JPG?dl=0
00