Prices are “off the chart” in Vic and SA right now and likely for the next few hours. Factories will be closing. Diesel generators will be running, but only in South Australia and Victoria. At these kinds of prices tens of millions of dollars could be going up in smoke every hour. By the end of today the bill could come to more than a hundred million dollars.
In QLD and NSW where there are old or evil coal fired plants the wholesale electricity costs are only $105/MWh.
…
South Australia
…
The national electricity market (or at least the Eastern half and 90% of the population).
…
Today when we need it, wind power on the NEM is running at about 20% of total capacity. Four out of five windfarms are not working.
…
UPDATE: LOR3 (highest level warning) issued in Victoria but resolved at 8pm. In SA the diesel jet engines have been switched on for the first time as emergency reserve. We didn’t used to need to buy expensive machinery so it could sit around for 18 months before it was needed.
h/t Ian B, LightningCamel, George, David B.
MWh typo fixed, thanks to Xavier
Sheer stupidity by gullible governments. Wonderful wind is currently delivering 1 GW from nameplate capacity of 5.5 GW and solar is declining as AEMO struggles to provide 31-33 GW for the evening peak demand.
As a result, wholesale spot prices in Vic/SA are about $14/kWhr compared to an average of about 10 cents, which is where prices are in NSW/Qld.
Quick, install more useless wind/solar per Labor policy, it’s so cheap. And now, please switch off your air conditioning, and industry go overseas, we can’t meet demand. Meanwhile, Tassie is giving away electrons. Please explain.
391
Just rang a leftie mate to talk to him about the current prices. To say he was flabbergasted would be an understatement. Why? he asked. He never even said a word when I talked about the demise of Coal
Fired Power Stations in SA and Vic.
I’m gunna convert the buggar!
380
Reality bites? Nachure’s
hip pocket nerve?
110
Victoria = Venezuela
Q. Whats the cost of keeping a Communist govt running in Victim-toria?
A. About $14,000/hour
Ouch….Dangerous Dan is an expensive pet … time to go Comrade Dan…..
290
1402 days left, as of the 25th.
81
Its starting to hit the fan – how long before dopey Victorians demand his resignation?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-25/extreme-heat-for-victoria-melbourne-hottest-day-in-a-decade/10748330
“Thousands of Victorians are experiencing power outages after the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) directed load shedding across the grid on what is forecast to be Melbourne’s hottest day in a decade.
Key points:
Parts of Melbourne and regional Victoria have lost power
Temperatures in the mid-to-high 40s are expected in much of the state
Authorities warn that bushfires “will be uncontrollable” and communities must be prepared
Load shedding occurs when demand is too great, so the energy operator directs power companies to create rolling blackouts in different parts of the network so the entire system is not at risk.
AEMO chief executive officer Audrey Zibelman said the power outages would affect about 60,000 customers for up to two hours.
“Hopefully what we’ll do is we’ll see it through, it will be for a temporary period of time, they’ll restore it,” she said.
However, power company websites reported more than 169,800 customers had been disconnected from power across the state about 1:20pm.
The Victorian Government had said earlier it was not anticipating load shedding to occur despite the huge demand for power.
Regions hit by outages include:
Epping, Mill Park, Lysterfield, Rowville, Clyde, Cranbourne East; Southbank, Armadale, Toorak, Camberwell, Fairfield, Northcote, Caulfield, Elwood, Beaumaris, Bulleen, Burwood, Riversdale, Bentleigh, Heathdale, Balaclava, Malvern, Balwyn, Surrey Hills, Essendon, Essendon North, Strathmore, Glenroy, Oak Park, Kalkallo, Broadmeadows, West Footscray, Fairfield, Ivanhoe, Alphington, Airport West, East Keilor, Niddrie, Ascot Vale, and Moonee Pond, Camperdown, Weerite, Yarrawonga, Bundalong, Castlemaine Muckleford, Lara, Corio, Norlane, Herne Hill, Hamlyn Heights, Balmoral, Haven, Woolsthorpe, Grassmere and Mailers Flat.
Source: AEMO
Earlier in the day AEMO activated emergency reserves, including preparing to pay some businesses to voluntarily curtail their own usage.
But those reserves were not enough to cover the shortfall.
Victoria is also importing power from South Australia, Tasmania and New South Wales, but cannot import more because interconnectors are at their maximum limits.
‘It’s gone dark’
Power outages are being reported in a number of Melbourne suburbs including Glenroy, Oak Park, Broadmeadows, Essendon and Strathmore.
Further north, regional locations including Shepparton, Kyabram, Numurkah and Cobram were among those to experience power cuts.
One company sent customers a text message stating that a “PowerResponse event” would occur between midday and 3:00pm “due to extreme weather”.
On Ormond Road, the main street of Elwood in Melbourne’s inner south-east, shops and cafes were forced to limit services or close because of the lack of electricity.
100
Interestingly, Elders have apage for melbournes weather records:
https://www.eldersweather.com.au/climate.jsp?lt=site&lc=86071
High Max. (°C) ( year )
Jan 45.6 ( 1939 )
Feb 46.4 ( 2009 )
Mar 41.7 ( 1940 )
Melb currently
42.1 C ( forecast 44 C )
So were still not at a record temp.
So much for global wamring .
Meh.
90
Hope the rolling blackouts reach Canberra for several hours at least. The public servants need a big dose of reality.
40
“Authorities warn that bushfires “will be uncontrollable” and communities must be prepared.”
I get the feeling Audrey Zibelman might be trying to extinguish a couple of fires in her own backyard at present.
30
Don’t worry, the idiots will vote for him again.
20
How does posting an accurate timeline earn a red thumb? Desperation perhaps?
40
This is just chairman dan giving all comrades of Victoriastan a “free” four year degree in “Surviving a Socialist Utopia”.
The sane will dropout and depart for a 1st world state.
The rest are preparing to vote in another “free” four year degree.
Victorians voted for this. Own it.
150
Not owned by me…I didn’t vote for Dopey Dan and ‘Downward pressure’ D’Ambrosio.
81
something about democracy seem to have escaped you. Some people voted for him, not all. Some people thought Bob Carr was good idea, some Bjelke Peterson, some Weatherdill. I would not tar all the people of those States for those decisions.
80
On the television news last night the Vic Labor Government Minister responsible advised that they are looking at various technologies to stabilise the grid, including coal and gas fired power stations.
I wanted to shout “Hazlewood”.
200
Just wondering if the whole system is being gamed.
Step 1 – Destroy just enough generating capacity that shortfalls are poisionously expensive to replace
Step 2 – Wait for a hot day and make $14,000 / MW per hour to fill the gap
Step 3 – Convince powers that be to shut down even more power generating capacity
Step 4 – Make $14000 / MW per hour continuously.
If such a thing ( hypothetically of course ) happened, surely it is an ACCC matter of blatant market manipulation and consumer price gouging of an essential service ?
230
Just after the IPCC Kyoto Agreement was signed the Howard Government (Coalition) added a trial basis only 3 per cent renewable energy target and many other initiatives aimed at reducing “greenhouse gas emissions”. About a decade later a Labor Government increased the RET to 28 per cent and imposed a Renewable Energy Surcharge levied on electricity bills. They later introduced a Carbon Tax. Both taxes were 10 per cent and had 10 per cent GST added.
The Abbott Government managed to repeal those taxes but the Senate would not agree to abolish the RET, but did agree to lower the RET to 23 per cent.
Labor Government in South Australia were at the forefront of “the transition to renewable energy” and Labor Government in Victoria are following that crisis path.
Writing in The Bulletin Magazine during 2006 journalist Max Walsh warned that the Union Movement had successfully completed a “corporate-style” takeover of the Labor Party and as the controllers were installing union trained executives into safe Labor electorate seats. The main objective to control all governments in Australia.
In 1985 when the Labor Government in Canberra began implementation of the major economic reforms from The Campbell Report part of the reforms was floating the A$ and deregulating the banking and finance sectors of the economy. In short this led to excessive lending and borrowing with no industry specific watchdog appointed (the Howard Government established APRA in 1998. Later the Labor Government introduced the Superannuation Guarantee Levy against employers to provide superannuation for employees …. the Union Movement’s Industry Superannuation Funds were established and have become very profitable revenue sources for the Union Movement.
Using invested funds the Industry Superannuation Funds acquired shares in public companies and access to boards of directors, even seats on boards.
The Royal Commission inquiry into banking and finance discovered many areas of poor governance and corruption. It reminded me of the Trade Union Royal Commission inquiries and discoveries.
As Original Steve has commented, “surely it is an ACCC matter of blatant manipulation and consumer price gouging of an essential service?”.
110
Great summary of the Great Australian Catastrophe.
We hire the best for our government public service to get the world’s best arrangements for our basics.
Water, screwed.
Electricity, screwed.
Roads, what a mess.
Unemployment: there should be a job for everyone in Australia but the government finds it easier to give out our tax cash than go to the bother of creating jobs. Everyone had jobs in the fifties because governments actually felt and obligation.
So after our politicians have hired the best, they tell them what to think and increase their pay as compensation for their silence.
Much has been manipulated for personal gain and this abuse of our nation deserves serious examination and prosecutions.
KK
60
Dennis
Howard’s original figure in 2001 was actually only 2% above the 97 levels. In 2003 he commissioned the Tambling report which spoke of doom. Both side of politics lapped it up – Howard went to the 2007 election promising a target of 15% with his Clean Energy Target and Kevin07 went in with the 20% figure. While the left/right disparity on the climate change scandal is more polarized now, it was not always the case. In the UK the Torries were right into it in the early days. You will still find plenty of Rightie’s spruiking it these days still.
00
Original Steve, unfortunately Coal fired stations going unexpectedly offline during this hot spell is not doing us pro Coal advocates any favours, as the misinformed pro Renewables useful idiots are already blaming the “unreliability of fossil fuel generation ” for the shortfall of available power. That Tony from OZ recently informed us here that most if not all coal fired generators were serviced or overhauled during the benign Spring season, so as to all be reliably available for this peak hot summer demand make this outage at Loy Yang a little surprising if not a bit suspicious !
80
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas has cautioned that renewables decrease revenues needed to maintain traditional power stations which may result in future brownouts/blackouts during peak demand.
OZ doesn’t make the news here so most Americans do not know of the problems with renewables.
Ignorance is bliss
100
Yes thats the “getting out of coal” strategy , although it is wrapped up in a green bow, with warm caring feelings and bearded wonder boys.
50
What we need are solar panels that work in total darkness. A 1 Billion dollar grant scheme is required to find out how to make this work.
240
Power cost today in Victoria was $350M+ for 5.30pm to 8.30pm.
Normal cost $3M even @$120/MWHr
Just three days of this and we can afford research into solar panels that power up in the dark.
What would happen if we get Marble Bar weather…. 160 days over 38C?
Is there an incentive to reduce GHG if the reward for not doing so is worth $14,500/MWhr? Have I missed the green logic?
160
I have a plan – enormous reflectors on the moon and on satellites, and super beams to concentrate the power. Is that enough to get a grant?
70
only if they have climate change on the moon….
100
Robber,
don’t scoff at that idea. Something similar was proposed in years gone by.
Back in 2008, and that was eleven years ago now, I started out on all this with a Series about the Kyoto Protocol, and finding ways to replace coal fired power.
That Series blew out considerably from the (perhaps) original six parts into more than 30 separate Posts.
In one post, I tried to canvass some of those lesser ideas for power generation, and one of them entailed something similar to what you mention, and keep in mind that at the time, this was actually considered to be possibly viable.
Rather than repeat it all again, the following is the link to that Post, and the date for the Post was May 2008.
Kyoto – A Perspective (Part 21) (Serious Options Please)
Tony.
50
A renewable fanboy on Fairfax said “imagine how bad it would be without solar power”
I responded no imagination required , it happens every afternoon around 4 or 5PM
Saw some regional news where there was a regional black out. A mushroom farmer had there crop devasted. The had just spent $100k on solar panels, but no generator.
260
They are now blaming coal generator breakdowns for the rolling blackouts.
Unreliable coal gets the blame.
50
Stuart, as I wrote further up this post.The outage at Loy Yang is both surprising and suspicious. Are Coal fired operators also gaming the system ?
50
It was only AGL owned Loy Yang A that went down!
Does seem a bit wrong here?
20
Coincidentally or not AGL’s Liddell in NSW had one unit offline also. Same problem too, ‘leaking pipe’. Gotta wonder; if OPEC can regulate production to bring up the price of crude, and we don’t bat an eyelid at that, why wouldn’t the free enterprising generators do the same here. AGL probably netted a handsome dividend for their shareholders with their strategy. What’s not to love if you are a shareholder.
30
They could just blame milankovitch…far easier than blaming coal.
10
In principle it is quite simple. Wait until the earth is in the optimum position to generate solar power in Australia and then stop it turning.
Now I have done the science part it is just up to you engineering folks to make it happen.
I’m sure this is how our politicians view these sort of problems.
70
Mirror satellites maybe?
30
My guess.
Somehow Tas Hydro can manipulate the price and it could be a way of reducing the take from their wholesale consumers. Being state govt owned they can do that sort of thing. They have a monopoly in retail in Tas.
41
This document might help.
https://www.treasury.tas.gov.au/Documents/Review%20of%20the%20Tasmanian%20Wholesale%20Electricity%20Market%20Regulatory%20Pricing%20Framework%20-%20Final%20Interim%20Report.pdf
00
This cost and it’s cause needs to be reduced to a simple reason or slogan so it can be effective against the alarmists.
It can’t be just a matter of supply and demand, even though it is. The fact that wind and solar cannot match either base load or peak demand is also relevant. The duplicate costs of running two systems, renewables and fossils, with the fossils not being able to sell when the renewables are working, but still have to keep running incurring costs, also plays a part.
So how to condense those parts into a snappy slogan which indicts the failure of renewables?
70
How long can Tasmania put half a gigawatt into Victoria? They’re making money, I know. But the last time they did this, they ran out of water before their dams could be refilled.
231
Last week the capacity of the hydro system in tassie was about 30% so I may check to see how much it’s gone down .
110
By the reports I’ve got on grazing in Tas and the fires the thought was that they’d better be watching the water heights there
70
Please turn off all unnecessary appliances. Do not use the dishwasher tonight. Do not use the washing machine today. BBQ rather than using the cooktop or oven. Set air conditioners to 28C.
If you have the energy can you please blow in a southerly direction to assist the wind. If enough people blow hard enough we will generate more electricity and avoid an electrical systemcollapse.
Thank you in anticipation of your compliance and good humour while doing so!
280
F…T…..i have everything turned to try and break the network. Disclaimer red wine does not require refrigeration
220
I like to keep mine at about 12C, but thats just me
60
BBQ !!?
= CO2 Uff da!
20
Or you could try one of these:
Solar box cooker
10
Make sure that BBQ is not a wood or charcoal fired one as Victoria has implemented a state wide fire ban.
http://www.mfb.vic.gov.au/News/Is-Today-a-Total-Fire-Ban.html
30
I went where no man should go anymore and, avoiding clicks on links, checked to see if $14,500 per MW is in the “news”. Nope. But I saw maps with lots of yellow, red and purple.
Oh, and it seems that the Polly Waffle is back. That’s yellow and purple too.
250
If you click on links like crazy, if you look carefully in Dangerous Dans territory, you can watch the lights dim a bit…..
50
.
❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
❶①❶①
❶①❶① . . . An open letter to RealClimate.org . . .
❶①❶①
❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
.
[ Sorry, I think that I am lost. Is this “Midweek Unthreaded”? I want to post a letter. I am looking for the post office.]
Gavin Schmidt from RealClimate.org is a wise person.
He gives good advice.
If Gavin gives you some advice, then I suggest that you take it.
Gavin recently gave all Deniers some good advice.
If Deniers don’t want to be rightly accused of climate denial, then don’t go around denying climate science.
That bit of advice is beautifully simple. It can’t be argued with. It is logically sound. It is a statement that Yogi Berra would be proud of.
But Gavin is a busy person. He doesn’t have time to give everybody the advice that they deserve.
To solve this problem, I have managed to “get inside Gavin’s head”, so that everybody can benefit from Gavin’s wisdom.
First, some advice for Alarmists.
———————————
Alarmists, if you don’t want to be called a stupid arrogant jerk, then don’t act like a stupid arrogant jerk.
Now some advice for climate scientists.
—————————————
Climate scientists, if you don’t want to be called an undemocratic third world dictator, then don’t act like an undemocratic third world dictator.
Even Gavin could benefit from some “Gavin” type advice.
——————————————————-
Gavin, if you don’t want to be called an obnoxious Tamino-like character, then don’t act like an obnoxious Tamino-like character.
.
I think that I am getting the hang of giving out wise advice.
I think that I will quit while I am ahead, with one last piece of advice for Gavin.
Gavin, if you want to “weasel” out of answering any difficult climate questions, then call the questioner a Denier. Because nobody is expected to answer questions from Deniers.
Sorry, Gavin. I can see that you already knew that last piece of advice.
Keep up the good work !!!
====================
An open letter to RealClimate.org
Anybody who would like to read the conversation that I DIDN’T have with Gavin, should click this link:
https://agree-to-disagree.com/an-open-letter-to-realclimate-org
212
Our glorious AEMO leader Audrey Zibelman was interviewed on ABC TV this morning.
“dipping into reserves is expensive”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-24/its-a-lot-like-an-insurance-policy-aemo-downplays/10745600
I have a feeling AEMO will pay any price to avoid outages in SA.
210
and here’s me thinking that a reserve is for dipping into.
but that’s crazy talk. right?
I always keep some beer in the fridge.
didnt realise the first 5 tinnies cost $2 each but the last one would cost $20.
Lets hope I never find out
120
Yes it is expensive, hence the need to have cheap reliable controllable baseload power. Funny how baseload is considered so old school until a day like today.
120
I am unclear on one point. Who receives $14,500 per MWhr, is it a generator or a trader?
30
Why would you generate and bid in if you didnt get the upside as well as the downside?
20
Yarpos
Traders are expert at inserting themselves into money streams. State inter-connectors only exist because somebody can make money from them. They were an “investment opportunity” Shutting down power stations increases the traffic and the profit.
I just wondered how the market really works.
10
Don’t forget the government, through GST and LGC substitute as there aren’t enough natural LGCs created to cover the all the coal generated power (at least as I understand it).
Cheers,
Dave B
10
I just received an email from my biller, click energy, that my charge rate will increase by over 10% for peak and a considerable amount for shoulder etc.
Bad news for us: Devastating news for Commerce and Industry in Australia.
KK
221
Yes I just got the same advice. I left AGL because of their stupid ads extolling the virtues of renewables. Perhaps I will have to look around for another provider although I would guess that all of them would be increasing prices given the debacle today. Has anyone else heard from any other providers in SA?
160
SA
Spot Price (30min)
$14,500.00/MWh
Forecast Spot Price (Pre-dispatch)
$14,500.00/MWh
110
What we need to remember is that while they keep inflicting new solar and wind power on us they aren’t even planning any coal fired power stations to try and keep the power on .
Electricity use doesn’t get less just because they blow up a few coal fired power stations , this will magnify year after year .
I’m not sure how we managed to avoid rolling blackouts today but I’m sure it was from dumb luck rather than good management.
151
Portland was slowed down for most of the afternoon. So, load shedding did occur regardless what the AEMO says.
100
Portland Aluminium, do you mean, or the town/region?
Something else?
30
Yes it would be Portland Aluminium, there isnt much else to slow down in Portland , it is a very pleasant small town.
30
South Australia have just started switching on their backup diesel generators .
100
robert,the fellow that delivers our fuel has been refueling Ausnet generators every morning for a while now.North east Victoria.
110
GF where are the generators ? I thought they snuck some in around Gippsland but didn’t know there were any in the northeast
40
robert, EUROA show grounds and yesterday they rushed one to NAGAMBIE to get them back from black out.He tells me there are 60 in Gippsland.
60
So, instead of using nice dependable cheap AUSTRALIAN coal,
… we use expensive imported diesel fuel. (I have heard that reserves of diesel are quite low, can anyone confirm)
That make total sense… NOT !!
140
Less than 30 days I understand, and below the internationally agreed reserves.
But I doubt that the increasing demand for diesel generators was considered.
70
Dennis, have no way of confirming what a person in the industry told me,He says has been 17 days now 15 days.
We have given up all the self-sufficient lessons learnt from WW2.
60
those sorts of lessons rarely last more than a generation, maybe two. The current generation seems to be especially afflicted with “before my time” syndrome and give little credit to those whose shoulders they stand on.
81
“We have given up all the self-sufficient lessons learnt from WW2.”……….
Yes my WW2 Vet father will be “rolling in his grave”. Thankfully he isnt here, to witness the B..idiots he defended this Country for……..
Lately I have even considered if the Japanese had won WW2…think what position Australia would be in today !
A booming industrial power….a stable culture…no immigration problems….a pipeline Nth to Sth delivering a
reliable water supply …and at least 10 HELE coal fired power stations along with Nuclear in the mix!
Instead…….we have a Country bordering on self destruction. God help our stupidy !
121
Sorry link
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-24/back-up-generators-turned-on-in-sa-to-deal-with-extreme-heat/10747886
50
SA diesel generators – SATGS1 rising now at 87 MW (capacity 123 MW), SAT GN1 rising, now 110 MW (capacity 154 MW) according to NemWeb. SA big battery has been delivering 30 MW for 1 hour (at that rate could run for 4 hours). SA current demand just under 3 GW, Vic demand 9.3 GW. Current total grid demand 33.6 GW, wind delivering 1.3 GW.
130
I can smell the pollution from the city and the generators are over 20km away, and I don’t mean CO2
30
Australia has invested AUD10.3bn in wind power. At 1700hrs on 24 Jan all the wind generators are working at their limit permitted by the current wind strength putting out 1182MW.
On that basis capital cost of generation is AUD8.7M/MW. By comparison the capital cost of a coal fired steam generator is AUD1M/MW.
You would expect that Audrey Zibelman would realise the significance of dispatchable generation in order to avoid having to warn of outages every time air temperature rises to typical summer maximums:
200
Thanks Rick, the figures speak.
Coal fired power costs about 12% of the cost of wind generation.
She’s there for a political purpose that has nothing whatsoever to do with management of our electricity grid.
KK
190
Drove passed the Lake George wind farm on Monday, not one turbine was turning..
But somehow, Canberra still had electricity. 😉
130
Its the imported-from-all-over-australia hot air……
30
Hydro from the Snowy……..No hot air in ACT at the present…….they are ALL on holidays !!
40
Rick travelling past wind farms in Ararat and Waubra in Victoria yesterday about 90% of the turbines were working with the rest stopped, I suspect the heat affected some mechanisms or cabling?
70
Oh if one of those things catches fire with the heat and wind it’ll be the icing on the cake……the cover up would be massive.
110
we know they have a capacity factor of 30-40% so the majority of the time they will be stopped or running sub optimally
40
“The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has forecast the possibility of a power supply shortfall in both states tonight if the market is unable to provide additional energy.” Australian market provides energy? Then Australia needs more market, not more power plants … 🙂
40
The AER makes sure the generators all get paid … this is NOT a market
70
478 megawatt/hours being sent to Vic at $14500 per megawatt/hour should mean $6.9 million per hour for Tassie hospitals, schools, coppers, ambos etc, etc.
I would just like to thank Daniel Andrews for his energy policy and the resulting fiscal largesse.
290
🙂
31
No thanks to Bob Brown.
D A M I T.
51
Is that $14,500 or -72 cents though?
11
I think this should read as such…Today when we need it, wind power on the NEM is running at about 20% of total capacity, which is normal for wind farms. It is the equivalent of having only one wind farm operating at 100% capacity (which is impossible).
I wonder whether somebody has to die due to a blackout/brownout before the politicians realise that our electricity generation is in a total mess. I certainly don’t want to see this happen, however it does seem to be a distinct possibilty.
180
Everyone deserves to have access to cheap, reliable electricity.
We aren’t a 3rd world country….yet?
We need more politicians with the cojones to say what they think, rather than toe the party line.
I cannot understand why they just won’t admit the major negatives that wind and solar have.
If they are not even willing to look at nuclear, then the only alternative reliable power generator is coal.
190
We aren’t a 3rd world country….yet?
But you will be if you let the stupid politicians continue with their pandering to the UN Church of Climatology doctrine.
110
Load Shedding is happeningin Vic apparently …. the times below are AEDT, not summer time
Market Notice 66670
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the Vic region – 24/01/2019
Customer load shedding of non-interruptible load is occurring in the Vic region as a result of a shortfall of available capacity reserves.
An Actual LOR3 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Vic region from 1810 hrs.
The Actual LOR3 condition is forecast to exist until 1910 hrs.
The maximum load to be interrupted is 266MW at 1810 hrs 24/01/2019
90
…and the lack of power available and the load shedding will be blamed on the ‘unprecedented’ heatwave that they are currently experiencing which leads us to….. this is all caused by global warming.
I wonder whether there will be any mention of the coal fired power stations that have been dismantled/demolished, that would have prevented this? I think not!
140
nope, they are already blaming unreliable coal
20
Power outages in Victoria:
https://m.powercor.com.au/outage-map
https://www.outagetracker.com.au
80
That’s half of Victoriastan
50
Oops too many Co2 charged frothies , not half of Victoriastan sorry
30
I posted this just now, a few blogs back but I think it is relevant here:
News at 6 o’clock had a story asking people to turn off A/C. Some did and the price went down for a short time but it is up again now.
Power supplying companies are raking in profits at unprecedented rates.
Power retailing companies may be in trouble. My retailer has a fixed rate for me so I have my A/C switched on and running at Max. They have to buy at $14,000/MWhr and sell to me at 32c/kWhr ($320/MWhr).
This may prompt some changes.
170
Only for a short window though. Its a bit like flying an aircraft with empty seats, you still have to run the schedule and make it up when full. Across a year its a cost of doing business, I imagine there are ways to hedge against it like airlines do with fuel costs.
40
$14,500 a mega at 6.59 pm…
We have a truly fu**ed electrical power netwrk in South Australia
180
Not to mention Victoria 6.30pm
Spot Price (30min)
$14,500.00/MWh
Forecast Spot Price (Pre-dispatch)
$14,500.00/MWh
We are burning our money when we should be burning coal.
170
On the TV news tonight we had a story about how Adelaide had record high temperatures.
I thought, when the blackouts start they will blame them on Climate Change.
If not for climate change the power cuts would not have happened. Which is true, because if they were not frightened of CO2 they would never have built the wind farms.
181
You need to understanx the monumental task facing you, some one from tbe barossa valley stated in a letter to the editor *SA schools have not been powered by fossil fuels for the last 3 years because thats when we demolished our coal plant*
The stupid, it burns brighter than the sun.
170
Wow!
That’s as stupid as companies doing the ‘green energy’ thing….buying only ‘green’ energy.
How do they think that they are using only ‘green’ energy.
Simply unbelievable.
130
I think most of them see it as a way of directing money to renewable suppliers rather than controlling what comes out of the power socket. Then of course there is the self delusional virtue signalling aspect where spending money in certain way makes them feel good about themselves (however pathetic that seems)
40
It will all be OK. The load on the local circuits is now starting to drive low voltage fuses to blow, so that has the added benefit of reducing the load on the grid 🙂
We’re saved!
110
Lol, lol, lol as i said red wine does not require refrigeration so i dont care
80
Crakar
Neither do other things if you do the trial work.
During the 1965 drought we covered about 250 miles one day in about 115 F and hit the Birdsville Pub. To be introduced to Southwark beer and about 2 stubbies was as much as anyone could handle.
I told that story for years until a listener enlightened me. His explanation:-
“Well I can understand where you are coming from. But back then refrigeration was a rare luxury and, hot, it was the best beer in Australia”
80
My dad was a Southwark man. It was pronounced (roughly) “sutheck”. One day I was with dad in the bottle shop and a man asked for “south wark”. The sales guy kept a straight face!
50
Best beer? The only thing worse than Southwark stubbies were Southwark cans. In the mid 60s, the Norseman football club met the Ceduna football club at Eucla and the Norseman team won. When asked why by their local newspaper, their coach replied: “Too right we won – I told the boys that if they lost, they would have to drink Southwark all the way back to Norseman!!”
70
I was reminded of a trip across the Channel from England to France.
In the cafe area another Australian from country Australia was overheard nearby saying “bl**dy P*ms, first the beer is warm and now the sausages are cold”.
20
I’ve given up worrying about it all since neither side of politics gives a damn so let it all crash and burn. THe sooner the better so we can recover from the ashes anew.
160
This heatwave should help Morrison get reelected, new coal fired power stations are on the agenda.
62
1930 CST and the needle is still red linning in SA & VIC, TAS-72 Cents. A good opportunity to educate the simpletons but i cant be bothered anymore let them live in tbeir deluded fantasy.
81
Nothing to worry about. This is what people voted for, overwhelmingly.
120
Hey but our electricity grid should be good because it was designed by 8 year old school kids at protests.
141
Our liquid fuel generation is at 477mw which must be close to max. Candles and matches at the ready
110
Right now at 8.46 according to AEMO, it is still $14,500 a mega wat for power… Some body is making a huge huge Motza in profits out of us consumers using an essential service.. And that SUCKS
Some dopety pollies need a huge kick up the arse !
130
Prices have just fallen. On the five minute bids they are back down to normal $100/Mwh costs. The 30 minute averaged costs are still up at $12,000. (Jo at 10:06pm EST)
110
I think that AEMO ordered power to be cut off from some consumers.
Can you find out what actually happened.
10
Question…..Are the $14000 MW/h price due the fact that S.A. tonight is almost soley relying on gas for their energy source ?
Victoria gas consumption is very close to S.A. usage…
Where is the gas supply coming from ..Bass Strait ??
Are the Greens still banning exploration of gas in Victoria?…if so, total idiots !
I cant believe the “intelligence level” of this Country in regard to Energy supply….
Surely something “seriously” has to “give” very soon !
110
Unless hydro are gaming the system because of their relatively high capacity, the top of the price stack will be diesel. They only run a few hours each year and having price at $14500/MWh means they can pay them off over a few hours of operation. Actual fuel cost will be around $300/MWh but I expect they bid as high as permitted in order to recover the capital over a few years. It would not make sense for them to fire them up to send out power at $300/MWh for a few hours each year.
The battery is another possibility for the top of the price stack as that will be trying to make as much as they can in circumstances like this. If they pushed out 30MWh this evening then they have made $420k for the day.
Any small flexible generator is likely the price setter. The battery is now charging so it has been used today.
70
Just me but thankfully spell check didn’t change the “K” to an “L” .
10
Sorry the replies are going out of order again was supposed to follow on from 27.
20
It’s chilly in the UK, nothing unusual, but solar is pretty useless with 8 hours of low angle sun – has been sunny – if it were cloudy it would be even worse, and wind has gone awol again – 0.5% of demand, 0.235GW (From 21GW total installed capacity – all doing next to nothing). http://gridwatch.co.uk/
Gas is being run off the scale, but fracking is almost politically impossible thanks to disinformation and a small number of deluded activists.
170
As Vic and SA shows E. Hoffer was correct in his 1967 observation
120
34 Jan: ClimateChangeNews: Coal phase-out will increase German need for gas, says Merkel
Under pressure to block a gas pipeline from Russia and end coal power, the chancellor tied their fates together
By Karl Mathiesen
Speaking at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Merkel said Germany’s gas demand would be affected by the recommendations of Germany’s coal commission, due to be finalised in the coming weeks. The commission is mandated to set a timeline to phase out the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel.
“It is working on the decommissioning of coal-fired power plants,” said Merkel, “but without being able to assure a baseload in our energy generation, we will not be able to survive. So we will need [coal] for a certain period of time.”…
This week economy and energy minister Peter Altmaier told German newspaper Handlesblatt the pipeline was “far advanced, with pipes laid over kilometres in the sea” and said his country had no plans to block the Gazprom-owned project.
On Wednesday, Merkel said: “This conflict that you hear raging on our energy supply is also a bit exaggerated. We will continue to receive Russian gas and we will also receive liquefied gas from other sources. We’re building up the infrastructure for LNG in all directions. We will also get supplies from the United States eventually. But if we leave coal, if we leave nuclear, then we will need more natural gas. Energy after all needs to be affordable.”…
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/01/23/coal-phase-will-increase-german-need-gas-says-merkel/
50
Merkel stated:
That suggests she has had that lightbulb moment finally realising intermittents are not affordable! It must be humbling to realise the massive wasted investment.
I expect both SA and Vic need to go black before the obvious becomes so in Australia.
The massive investment in grid scale intermittents, associated transmission and temporary stability/reliability fixes has been wasted when you look at typical high demand conditions in southern Australia; wind next to nothing and solar essentially nothing when needed most.
110
Rick
“It must be humbling to realise the massive wasted investment.”
That was in the last 5 year plan and doesn’t get mentioned in the next one
70
‘Emergency powers have been tapped to ensure sufficient power is available, as the mercury spikes in Victoria and SA.’ Oz
70
I wonder how emergency powers make generations happen? Is that a Jedi thing?
40
I think it can happen at a price.
20
Looks like the river of gold has stopped flowing for now back down to 390 DOLLARS/MWH
50
24 Jan: ABC: Victorian heatwave: Locals left to sweat it out as blackout hits two central towns
By Mahalia Dobson and staff
Updated 55 minutes ago
About 2,700 houses in Nagambie and Avenel were affected by the blackout, which came on a day when extreme heat warnings had been issued for most of the state.
Much of the state was baking, with maximum temperatures in the low 40s, while Adelaide hit 46.6C, beating Melbourne’s decade-old temperature record for an Australian capital city…
Medicines affected
For Leah Wilson and her diabetic daughter, the blackout was far more than an inconvenience.
Ms Wilson had to take her daughter to the emergency department of the hospital in Seymour.
“Her insulin clouded over because it couldn’t be kept cool,” Ms Wilson said.
Other items in her fridge were also affected, and she hoped AusNet would provide customers with some form of compensation.
“We’re going to have to throw out meat and veggies and fruit,” she said.
“I contacted admin at AusNet to find out if we could possibly get any sort of compensation and were promptly told that only if we had shopping receipts.
“Who goes shopping and thinks, ‘Oh, I must keep that, just in case the power goes out’?”…
“Heat is our number one natural hazard killer in Australia,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s state manager, Dr Andrew Tupper.
“Understand that heat is a killer … that needs to make a difference in the way we behave.”
He said it has been “a particularly hot summer”, with December the hottest on record nationally — and plenty more heat to come.
“January is lining up to be the same … Summer overall is going to be one of our hottest summers,” he said…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-24/heat-not-blamed-for-central-victoria-blackouts/10742810
theirABC is in their heat element…check the “Just In” page
https://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/
where you will find:
It’s so hot in SA this couple baked biscuits outside
Posted about an hour ago | Updated about an hour ago
As South Australia and Victoria sweltered through record temperatures, here are some of the ways people tried to beat the heat.
Urban heat is making us sedentary and lonely, study finds
By Bridget Judd
Posted about 2 hours ago
A new report finds an over-reliance on air conditioning and a lack of shade in outdoor areas could be making us sedentary, passive and lonely, as people turn to their houses to beat the urban heat.
Record-breaking heat sees power generators switched on for first time
Posted about 3 hours ago | Updated 44 minutes ago
Temporary diesel power generators owned by the South Australian Government are switched on as the Australian Energy Market Operator deals with record-breaking heat conditions across both SA and Victoria.
40
A more accurate statement would be:
Temporary diesel power generators owned by the South Australian Government are switched on as the Australian Energy Market Operator deals with low output from wind generators
record-breaking heat conditionsacross both SA and Victoria.80
So the South Australian government was being paid $14,500 a mega wat hour for switching on the diesel generators…I wonder what the actual cost of running them is. Surely not $14,500 a mega wat hour ?
And if not the river of gold was going to the SA governmnet from it’s own consumers here in SA
Something is very very bloody smelly !
90
It’s commonly referred to as a scam. People should be in prison for life, and perhaps one day they will be.
90
Excuse me, its more commonly known as free enterprise.
03
How is it free enterprise when the government is controlling it? Sounds like socialism to me,
50
Technically you are correct, but in a mixed economy like ours its a combo of free enterprise and state enterprise.
The market forces of supply and demand is determining the price outcome of energy on this occasion. What you see here is the ugly face of capitalism.
12
I was listening to a podcast from a conservative commentator in the USA.
The general gist was wall or no wall standoff, the US silent majority are just itching to let the Left really overplay their hand, then they will utterly shred them where they stand. It will be a horrific pay back….not enough rope…old West days again I think.
The mood in the USA, as I think here also, is that were basically so completely sick of the Leftist cultural “rape” of our society and them screaming in our faces and wiping their spittle off our brows as we exercise deliberate patience, it wont take much more before the Left are sent to the electoral wilderness for multiple generations.
Its a weird period of time , its like the left are infected with a “suicidal” brain melt that will guarantee thier complete destruction.
Ive always thought that individually and collectively, they were not quite right in the head.
80
meh, you read and hear a lot of tough talk, but nothing continues to happen in the mainstream
40
Give it time…..
20
“A new report finds an over-reliance on air conditioning and a lack of shade in outdoor areas could be making us sedentary, passive and lonely, as people turn to their houses to beat the urban heat.”
Good grief, its a few days a year, in bad years a few weeks
91
And normal summer conditions in The Sunburnt Country
51
9.45 om in South Australia. Folks the cost of power has dropped to a more reasonable level. But according to AEMO effectively it is coming from the coal fired power generators in Qld via NSW & Victoria..Wind & solar have packed up and gone home for the day. Now isn’t that bloody wonderful Greenists. Looney tunes did better than this !
121
as long as the lights stay on, most will never know and just continue to pay
50
“Looney tunes did better than this”
Wile E. Coyote was certainly enthusiastic if also a bit inept. Perhaps the AEMO could adopt him as their mascot.
30
I remember one skit whereby hes on a skateboard that has a saila tatched, and it goes off a cliff, the fan unplugs, and then hes pitifully puffing like mad, to get the skatebaord to the other side…of course he plummets to the valley floor below….
Yes, he would be a good mascot….fits….
30
These comments about who supports who are always just snapshots
e.g as I post this we have in VIC about half a GW coming in from TAS and SA, and 9MW from NSW , while NSW has 1.3GW pouring over the border from QLD. If that main interconnector ever goes the ripple effect would be interesting , in a bad way.
60
I just checked our BBC news site a it’s obvious that you lot are lying, there is no news about power shortages in Australia but this features prominently “Australia horse deaths: Wild animals perish at dried-up waterhole” – sarc
And you have nothing to worry about because they say –
“Australia ranks as one of the best countries to live in the world by international comparisons of wealth, education, health and quality of life.”
They rarely, if ever, report any adverse news about the stupid effects of climate change policies.
141
Adrian The ABC is a clone of the BBC. So do not believe. a word of there crap published there.
92
Well folks- Canada is #1 in quality of life. Right now it is -29C and will stay below -20C until Sunday. Then all hell breaks lose as a major blizzard is expected to dump 15-30cm of powdery white “stuff” on my humble abode. With winds between 45-70K should be fun to watch as the anti-global-warming fluff piles into drifts and buries my truck in the drive. Then I’ll have the quality of life “privilege” of trying to start my gas powered fluff redistribution machine at the predicted temp of -32C with wind chills at-48C. Should be fun for a 75+ old gent. Now I better go out and gather the tomatoes before winter sets in!
200
Best of luck R2Dtoo!
Frankly I’d rather have +48C any day.
152
Jo
A snowstorm looks a lot cleaner from inside than a dust storm and does a much better job of keeping the beer cold
70
As long as we have air-conditioning. Otherwise I much prefer very cold temperatures. At least I can have a fire to keep warm and drink lots of port.
70
Check Roy Spenser’s site today.
Canada is just winding up to send cold into the
northern U.S. Watch Chicago this time next week.
Be glad you won’t be there.
60
BBC wont care until things go dark, then they will blame unreliable coal power
60
24 Jan: Reuters: PG&E puts cost of judge’s wildfire plan at up to $150 billion
by Jim Christie
California power company PG&E Corp, which expects to soon file for bankruptcy, said on Wednesday it would cost between $75 billion and $150 billion to fully comply with a judge’s order to inspect its power grid and remove or trim trees that could fall into power lines and trigger wildfires.
PG&E said in a filing in U.S. District Court in San Francisco that it could not on its own afford the work proposed in a Jan. 9 order by U.S. District Judge William Alsup, who is overseeing conditions of the company’s probation following a 2010 gas pipeline explosion
To pay for the proposed work, PG&E said it would have to pass the bill to ratepayers who get their power from the utility company’s nearly 100,000 miles (161,000 km) of overhead lines in northern California.
“PG&E would inevitably need to turn to California ratepayers for funding, resulting in a substantial increase – an estimated one-year increase of more than five times current rates in typical utility bills,” the company said…
The utility on Wednesday estimated it would have to remove 100 million trees or more to safeguard power lines, a campaign that would face “myriad legal obstacles to reconfiguring the California landscape,” as it would require contending with state and federal agencies as well as private property owners.
A proposal to restrict using power lines deemed unsafe during high winds is not feasible because lines traverse rural areas to service urban zones, while “de-energization” of lines could also affect the power grid in other states, PG&E said…
https://in.reuters.com/article/pg-e-us-wildfire/pge-puts-cost-of-judges-wildfire-plan-at-up-to-150-billion-idINKCN1PI0CG
60
AN ABSOLUTE MUST-LISTEN FOR JO, JENNIFER MAHORASY, ETC:
listen from 52mins to 1hr01min24sec for interview with South Australian BOM’s Tom Bock; says so far we’ve recorded 30 locations in SA that had record high temps, etc. 1939, Stevenson screens, etc etc:
AUDIO: 2hr09min41sec: 24 Jan: 2GB: Chris Kenny filling in for Nights with Steve Price Full Show Podcast, January 24th
https://www.2gb.com/podcast/nights-with-steve-price-full-show-podcast-january-24th/
60
The name of the previous screen is Glaisher or alternatively termed Greenwich screen. Bias tests done in Italy of a similar open screen to the Glaisher indicates that there is a high reading bias related to the level of solar radiation compared with the Stevensen screen.
What we did not hear about was changes to the internal instruments. I expect it very unlikely that the West Terrace station is still equipped with a LiG thermometer the provided the new record reading.
It is quite silly how a record temperature is hyped given the typical small difference from the last record and the errors involved in the readings. This 1921 paper points out the absurdity of offering temperature readings with greater accuracy than a whole number:
http://www.mv.helsinki.fi/home/asmi/Aitken/38.%20THERMOMETER%20SCREENS.pdf
It highlights the sources of differences as well as the issues with Stevensen screens.
30
23 Jan: National Geographic: Why cold weather doesn’t mean climate change is fake
Weather and climate aren’t the same thing, meaning you can expect harsher winters in a warming world.
By Sarah Gibbens
A record-breaking cold snap is relentlessly descending on parts of the U.S. this month. It spawned from a split polar vortex that sent cold, Arctic air across the continent.
In a time when climate change is discussed in the context of record highs, droughts, and wildfires, cold weather and blizzards can seem out of place. For those who deny that climate change is happening, it’s an opportunity to undermine scientific consensus.
How do you explain a cold winter in a world that scientists say is getting hotter?
First, it’s important to understand the difference between climate and weather…
In response to President Trump’s January 20 tweet about cold temperatures, Potsdam University physicist Stefan Rahmstorf noted on Twitter that, while North America was experiencing cold Arctic air, ***the rest of the world was abnormally hot…
Record cold temperatures and blizzards aren’t the only extreme weather patterns expected…
But we don’t have to wait until 2100 to see how climate change is leading to deadly weather.
Scientists have already found climate change contributed to California’s historic, deadly wildfires and powerful, destructive hurricanes.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/climate-change-colder-winters-global-warming-polar-vortex/
North America, but worth a mention:
21 Jan: Weather Network: Coldest Ottawa snowstorm in more than 100 years
First, Ottawa residents awoke Saturday morning to find themselves living in the coldest capital city on Earth, clocking in about 20 degrees colder than winter heavyweights like Moscow and Helsinki, and even edging out perpetual champ Ulan Bator, Mongolia, by a degree.
That morning low of -24°C combined with nearly 30 cm of snow reported at Ottawa Airport, set the city up to chalk up another unusual milestone this weekend — the coldest snowstorm in more than 100 years…
***Rahmstorf – “the rest of the world was abnormally hot?”
27 Dec 2018: DownToEarth.org: Why is Delhi going through an extra cold December?
At 3.7 degrees Celsius, Delhi has already recorded its coldest December morning in the last 12 years; the IMD predicts that in coming days the temperature can fall…
24 Jan: TheNewsPakistan: Which is the country’s coldest place this winter season?
With temperatures dropping to a record low across the country this winter season, the northern parts of Baluchistan are under the grip of extreme cold weather…
12 Jan: EuroWeeklyNews: CHILLY: Spain’s coldest capitals according to AEMET’s study
By Joe Gerrard
PALENCIA has seen the coldest winter temperatures of any provincial capital in Spain since the early 1970’s on average, according to a study from Spain’s AEMET met office…
2017:
10 Jan 2017: Slovak Spectator: Temperatures hit record lows in Slovakia
The arctic winter brought temperatures below 30 Celsius degrees, complications in transport and the threat of avalanches.
On Sunday, January 8, several records were registered. In Oravská Lesná the temperature fell to -35.2 Celsius degrees, Liesek reported a record -29.9 degrees and Poprad -24.6 degrees, according to the meteorologist Paulína Valová from Slovak Hydro Meteorological Institute.
The temperature in Dudince located in southern Slovakia fell to -29.8 degrees, the coldest temperature ever measured in Dudince…
At Lomnický in the High Tatras the temperature was -29,6 degrees and thus the lowest over last 30 years and at Chopok in the Low Tatras the temperature of -27.9 degrees was the lowest one since January 2, 1979…
80
23 Jan: The Hill: Trump administration closes climate data webpage, citing shutdown
By Miranda Green
The public can no longer access the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) climate data because of the partial government shutdown, now in its second month.
Visitors to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) website are redirected to a page that says, “Access is not available at this time due to a lapse in appropriation.”
“NOAA.gov and specific NOAA websites necessary to protect lives and property are operational and will be maintained during this partial closure of the U.S. Government,” the page reads.
The NCDC site provides archived meteorological data from ships that are at sea and moored, as well as drifting buoys. It also provides real-time access to weather model forecast data and access to multiple climate datasets. A key tenant of the center is public access…
A national global temperature report typically released mid-January by NOAA and NASA is also being delayed because of a lack of access to the data, The New York Times reported last week. The information is key to climate scientists who study temperature trends…
In the midst of the shutdown, President Trump last week renominated for the third time his controversial pick to head NOAA, Barry Lee Myers. Myers previously served as CEO of Accuweather, a company founded by his brother, that advocates for the privatization of weather modeling…
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/426637-trump-administration-closes-climate-data-webpage-under-shutdown
20
The enviro folks will point to the fact that the spike did not last long, and the backup systems kicked in,
and the cost was not really that high, to justify saving the earth from certain destruction.
“The operation was a success, but the patient died.”
“We had to destroy the village, in order to save it.”
“In order to make an omelet, one has to break a few eggs.”
…..
110
Yes. Always their omelette, someone else’s eggs.
It must be such a burdensome burden making such sacrifices (for the planet).
80
And thus how socialist/greens will confiscate all property through global warming/renewables.
91
32C in Geelong, Victoria-zuela at 5.49am. Predicted to reach 40C. This looks like being a sizzler. The warmies will have a field day. However, if it does continue throughout the day, it may tip the fustercluck that is our electricity grid. Gas, coal, interconnector, diesel generators will be working hard today. I hope it holds.
On the other hand, I hope the whole lot comes tumbling down so that some hard questions can be asked. Back in the good old days of coal-fired power, 40C in Melbourne was just an excuse to go to the beach.
112
They’re tipping 43° in the Dandenongs, and it’s VERY windy. Could be tricky for the wind “farms”.
80
7am Friday Jan 25 in Melb and temperature is already 34C, with forecast top of 44C before cool change mid afternoon. AEMO wholesale price for Vic already $215/MWhr, with forecast peak of $14,500 (max allowed) from 11.30 to 3.30.
Per AEMO: From 1100 hrs 25/01/2019 to 1400 hrs 25/01/2019. The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 561 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 5 MW.
From 1400 hrs 25/01/2019 to 1500 hrs 25/01/2019. The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 47 MW at [approximately] 1430 hrs. AEMO is seeking a market response.
Yesterday per AEMO tables the average wholesale prices in SA/Vic were $3345.97/$3363.70 per MWhr for the full 24 hours. Meanwhile in the other states prices averaged just over $100/MWhr. This smells like a rotten fish market. Except for all the generator owners who are partying hard.
Those diesel generators in SA that reportedly cost $60 million, delivered 200 MW for 3.5 hours yesterday evening and banked $10 million, less costs.
80
Peter C to Lilly D’Ambrosio. Victorian Energy Minister;
120
“What will you do now?”
Well that’s easy.
1. Blame it all on “climate deniers”;
2. Confiscate their property (proceeds of crime don’t you know);
3. Line them all up against the wall (as sacrifices to gaia);
4. Ring in the new Utopia!
What could possibly go wrong…
70
She will continue to chant the mantra “renewables will put downward pressure on energy prices” and stand behind Leader Andrew nodding with a fixed grin. Thats about it.
110
The cool change predicted by BOM to arrive in Adelaide the late afternoon of the 24th, finally turned up here at Kt Barker in South Australia -at 5.10 am in the morning of the 25th.
The newly arriving cool breeze woke me up at that time.
How I wonder does the BOM do it’s weather predictions and get them wrong so badly ?
82
I’ve been tracking BoM’s max temperature forecasts for Melbourne all week.
On Sunday they forecast Mon/Fri: 27 31 25 35 40
Monday outlook______________ M-F 25 31 27 39 35
Tues outlook________________________30 25 38 41
Wed outlook____________________________25 38 41
Thurs outlook_____________________________36 43
Fri outlook__________________________________44 (with mid afternoon change)
Actual maximums__________________25 26 23 41 ??
So for Mon-Wed their forecasts were too high, Thurs too low, Fri now higher than all previous forecasts.
Could I suggest they provide error bars with their forecasts.
82
I’ve been taking screen shots of our local forecast over the last week…no two forecasts the same!
It has warmed up here now after a minimum of 19C…35C when I last looked. Lots of early watering of pot plants, sprinkers from the dam are on for the birds, fire pump and filled water tank on the trailer ready for later if the need arises. I sincerely hope it does not, especially as we approach the 10th anniversary of Black Saturday. We have visitors due for dinner this evening so will have to prepare some stuff early to avoid panic if the power goes off; until the gennie is started anyway. Whoopee! What a climate 🙁
41
come one, its tricky stuff. Its not as certain as predicting temperature anomalies under various scenarios at the end of the century. Apparently.
101
“How I wonder does the BOM do it’s weather predictions and get them wrong so badly ?”…….
Easy…..throw a few figures into the computer..and then blame it for delivering the incorrect data…!!!
Computers are only as good as their operators…so that says plenty in regards to the BOM public servants ..!!
Lennox Walker and Co were geniuses…. compared to this bunch !
40
So do you build a system to cope with a few high use days a year? That would require a lot of idle large scale power plants, not being used for most of the year.
But it would not solve the problem, as these plants would only come on line when the surge prices make it worthwhile.
That is how capitalism works – the market sets the prices, but if you own the supply like power generators do, you own the market, and therefore you set the price.
317
Put Hazelwood back in the system and the one at Port Augusta then remove all wind and solar installed since they were decommissioned , we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
111
If NSW has proceeded with established plans to increase the number of generator units at Bayswater and Mt Piper power stations …..
50
That’s not the way it works at all in capitalist nations like the US, UK and even pseudo-capitalist nations like Russia, India and China. They are all relying very much on mostly nuclear and/or coal and will continue to do so for many decades to come. Some like China and India even more so in the near future. We are pretty much alone on relying on more and more renewables while tearing down our only source of cheap and reliable power.
91
Enron?
25
Who said capitalism is perfect? Far from it but it’s the best we have on offer in this world at this time. in the quotes from Winston Churchill:
“The main vice of capitalism is the uneven distribution of prosperity. The main vice of socialism is the even distribution of misery.”
“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.”
“Socialism needs to pull down wealth; liberalism seeks to raise up poverty. Socialism would destroy private interests, Liberalism would preserve [them] … by reconciling them with public right. Socialism would kill enterprise; Liberalism would rescue enterprise from the trammels of privilege and preference. Socialism assails the preeminence of the individual; Liberalism seeks … to build up a minimum standard for the mass. Socialism exalts the rule; Liberalism exalts the man. Socialism attacks capitalism; Liberalism attacks monopoly.”
80
Somehow we managed to maintain an energy grid providing the cheapest power in the world before we were saved by obnoxious eco-loons.
141
‘The electricity system operator taps emergency powers as failed generators stretch the grid and thousands are plunged into darkness.’ Oz
The government needs to build more coal fired power stations for cheap and reliable energy. Socialism with a human face.
84
You mean like in China where they are building more and more coal and nuclear power stations? Don’t worry they will do the same here if we continue our current path to eventual self-destruction for another decade or so. Of course we might wake up before then and realise how dumb as a nation we have become. Time will tell. So far it’s not looking good.
110
I like a proposal doing the rounds in England – you nationalise all the natural monopolies (rail, power etc). You pay for this by issuing bonds, and you pay for the bonds by not having to distribute profits to shareholders. The maths is like this you issue bonds at 3-4% (underlying bond rate is around 2% ATM), current profits on that capital are 9-10% (which is distributed to the shareholders).
So that extra profit can be used to improve services, like more power supply for hot days.
39
I like it.
Nobody should be afraid of socialism with Australian characteristics, a fair go for all.
46
Yeah, but look what its morphed into….
Ist the fact its was socialist to start with thats allowed the loons so much leeway.
80
sarcasm seems to be a lost art here el gordo
07
Sarcasm, as you well know, is the lowest form of wit and should be avoided. I’m a practising satirist, but its a tough gig.
The coming election is going to be all about energy and a decision to build new coal fired power stations to supply a burgeoning economy. The people want power to be reliable all year round and cheap, under utilisation won’t be a problem.
50
I hope the vast majority of voters look at it that way and block any hope of Shorten becoming PM. The reality so far is it’s not looking that way. Still there is time for Morrison to pull his finger out.
80
Yep we have just enough time to pull off a stunning victory at long odds, the competition is woeful.
‘Richard Di Natale blames energy policy for bushfires and says those moaning about outages should think of “sacrifices made during wartime”. Oz
50
“…pay for this by issuing bonds, and you pay for the bonds by not having to distribute profits to shareholders.”
I don’t know how well the Australian government operates, but at least for the US government you must also subtract out the government waste and inefficiency. Once you do that there are no profits and more likely losses so you pay for the bonds by issuing more bonds.
50
good point RicDre. Currently the AEMO measures the efficiency of all the players in all the segments (generation, distribution and sales). It measures performance against peers both nationally and internationally. It then uses those figures to set the operating costs for each player. it is much more complicated than that but you see the idea. So if you keep auditing against international benchmarks, you would remove the potential for waste and inefficiency.
16
“So if you keep auditing against international benchmarks, you would remove the potential for waste and inefficiency.”
Wow, the Australian government must be a real joy to behold; the US government has never come close to removing the potential for waste and inefficiency.
40
What’s being said between the lines Ric is that we should stop thinking for ourselves and just copy others: saves so much effort.
10
Peter, how do you think the grid operated for the last 70 years?
You amke it sound like an impossible mystery, sort of like the UK operating as a sovereign country.
Yes you build large plants, with a number of generating units inside that may be offline or online due to demand or maintenance. You also need large power sources to drive synchronisation and to do a restart from blackout.
130
I drive my car quite gently and hardly ever brake hard. Is it really worth paying for all round power-assisted disc brakes for the few occasions when I want to stop quickly?
80
I handed my 4wd to my son when it had travelled just over 200,000 kilometres. He took it in for a service and it needed new front disc pads. When he went to pick it up the service centre people were amazed that the pads were the originals.
And I tow up to 2 tonnes regularly.
71
Robert
Likely these days with big production runs that there will be little difference in price.
And it is sure easier to change a set of pads.
20
Exactly. And Mr Fitzroy’s question:
seeks the same false economy as a car whose brakes are up to the job apart from the occasional time of peak demand.
20
And of course, the obvious one: why build two parallel generation systems when one of them has to have the capacity for full generation anyhow.
Paying for two lots of plant and equipment Coal plus Renewables when renewables cannot ever do the job on its own and coal must run in the background to maintain the system.
KK
10
Peter Fitzroy:
There are 3 known methods of supplying electricity via a grid (reducing costs through efficiency).
The first is coal fired. Had we converted our coal fired stations to the latest technology we would have had cheaper electricity and 22-23% reductions in CO2 emissions (for what that is worth). Our politician are against that choice.
The second is Closed Cycle Gas Turbines, more costly but reducing emissions about 60%. Note that any variable supply e.g. wind disrupts and reduces efficiency, hence higher costs and emissions. Our politician are against that choice.
The third is nuclear. Very costly (for the old style plants anyway) but low CO2 emissions. Our politician are against that choice.
All of these require some variable supply when demand is high. Previously this has been hydro, but our politicians are against more dams. That also gives storage for excess production.
That leaves the as yet unproven choice of renewables with storage, which is essential if their peaks and troughs are to be evened out. So our current politicians have rushed into renewables 6 years before the storage (Snowy 2) is available (providing there isn’t a drought). They waffle about batteries becoming cheaper sometime in the future, as has been claimed for the last 30 years.
Then to top all Butler (Labor shadow minister) wants to spend billions using renewables to produce hydrogen, which he claims would be shipped to Japan as a big money earner. Do a bit of research on the properties of hydrogen and the efficiency (and costs) of electroctrolysis before thinking this idea is anything other than lunacy.
160
Dopey indoctrinated pollies !
Can our utter contempt make them sit up and take notice ?
Can our votes in May do it ?
Maybe. I see no other course of effective action.
70
Things cant get this bad without deliberate cooperation.
When govts around the world fight to be with the “in” crowd at the UN, and the UN is driving all manner of messes globally, what logically should we think of those who liberately suck up to the UN?
40
All good points. I must point out that all generators (coal, biogas, wind etc etc) sell into the market. The market does not care how those electrons are produced. The market also has 2 pools. 1 is the hedge pools, which is where you by future supply, at discount – and this is calculated on a hour by hour basis, but you would purchase 6 – 12 months supply this way. The other pool is the spot market, where you bid on supply to meet the moment by moment demand (peaking demand) this market traditionally was dominated by large hydro, which even now is the biggest player.
For wind as an example – you might sell a 6 month contract to supply x megawatt hours day for six months. Your risk is that if you can not supply those megawatt hours you will have to enter the spot market to make up the shortfall.
As Yapos , and el gordo have said, this is unnecessary, as you are working in a natural monopoly, and I would suggest that the whole mess is a classic example of market failure.
49
“.. I would suggest that the whole mess is a classic example of market failure.”
That could be true, but given how distorted markets becomes when governments intervene into them, it could simply be a failure to have a functioning market.
100
Our stup1d know-nothing-worthwhile politicians have lumbered us all with this nonsense…I can understand why there are revolutions in some countries. The British and Australians tend to be too accepting of the rubbish put out by our ‘servants’ who are far too swayed by the minorities with the loudest voices.
92
Standby power plants don’t need to cost a bundle Peter. The SW of WA has a number of small gas-operated standby power plants located along its main gas pipeline that runs down through the Perth metropolitan area. These small plants can be quickly fired up in summer and winter at peak times.
Ok, I know, you need reliable gas at reasonable prices to do this, but if the WA state govt can do it, why can’t other state governments?
80
Yep, and WA is lucky in that way as it is able to do its own thing, not at the whim of AEMO
84
“So do you build a system to cope with a few high use days a year?”
Yes. Where we live (central Washington State) the main power source is Hydro. The regional grid also has one Nuke, various (~45) thermal (such as saw mills or paper industry), and now wind and solar.
The rate is set about once a year; currently:
Residential rate, monthly
Facilities Charge . . . . . $21.25
Energy Charge … . . . . $0.0908/kWh [24/7/365]
There are advantages to this system because business and industry {rate above is residential} know exactly what they will pay, and that it will be there for them.
The big dams were justified with expected benefits besides power, such as recreation and flood control. A grid with Nukes, gas, and other thermal could work just as well. Think of the engine in a car — most have much more power than typically needed, yet most of us do not opt for the smallest engine offered.
Systems such as described in this post are detrimental to society and not worthy of a modern first world economy.
50
O/T
AEMO orders aluminium smelter shut down.
https://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/adelaide-melbourne-sweat-in-extreme-heat-customers-ask-to-cut-energy-use-20190124-h1afyc
140
Would not be surprised if this happens often enough Alcoa gives the finger and shuts down permanently. This is how dumb we as a nation have become.
201
They get paid to do so, last time it was around 53 million to the various players.
412
Never managed a business for profit Peter.
121
Dennis, I’m assuming that you find the idea of borrowing at 3% and making 10% on that silly.
211
Never heard of operating costs Peter, or revenue as compared to profit.
131
nice deflection, the question was about running a business
70
The companies which have agreements with AMEO get paid for the outage. Since they are commercial enterprises, out to make a buck, they would not have accepted the deal unless either it was a benefit to them, or there was a gun pointed at the CEO’s head. Gun laws being what they are, we could take that option off the table.
15
Yes of course, but will you concede the Victorian energy system is unfit?
‘Up to 200,000 Victorian households have been hit with power outages, with the energy minister declaring the energy grid is not fit for modern living.’ SMH
30
Most of these company’s were on forward contracts but now many are charged the spot price , if this is the case staying open would be unprofitable meaning the companies really have no choice but take the money and run .
10
So the transfer of loss can sanctify loss, waste can be negated by the passing along of a “buck”. (You know how businesses are always out for that “buck”. I don’t know why we even bother with bother with smelly production when we can just hand out “bucks”.)
There’s always a verbal or arithmetical trick to make things okay, to make the unreal real, to make the crooked straight. That’s because no deception or illusion is left untried in time of war. And there is a War on Coal. The globalists, the GeeUppers and their odd ally, Big Oil, are determined to make Australia the biggest loser, because no country stands to gain or lose more depending on the future of coal.
So what can I do for coal today? That’s the question this Australian needs to ask himself every day. What can I do to win the War for Coal?
50
[…] SA and Victoria. Entirely predictable. Even the AEMO saw it coming last year. What did they expect? Jo Nova reports on the spectacle. Prices are “off the chart” in Vic and SA right now and likely for the next few hours. […]
60
Electricity should be supplied at 0.5 cents per kilo-Watt hour. Problem solved.
90
OT , last week it was the ABC re reporting the death of coffee even though we knew it was fake news , this week they’ve discovered “fake news” which was reported a couple of weeks ago and found to be fake .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-01-25/older-people-share-more-social-media-fake-news-2016-election/10746348
60
The story talks about “bogus news websites on social media”
But exactly who is defining what the bogud news site?
in this article it is someone called Ariel Bogle…
I am guessing but she is probably a young female feminist …So the young get to define as bogus the web sites that older folks use & share between themselves…
Just another version of AGEISM folks..To be utterly ignored
61
Vote Labor Greens.
Shorten Union controlled Labor will increase the RET to 50 per cent.
60
For 5 hours (3:30pm – 8:30pm) the 30 minute settlement price was above $13000 / MWh (mostly above $14000/ MWh) in Victoria and in SA, it was above 12000 / MWh from 3:30pm – 5pm and then stuck at the price limit $14500 / MWh from 5pm – 8:30pm.
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#price-demand
Retail rates are going to go up despite all the government promises to rein in consumer pricing
60
The interconnector flows during the peak demand (pricing) period shows that
a) Victorian and South Australian demand is highly correlated during extreme heat events
b) Without Hazelwood, Victoria can no longer act as an effective crutch for South Australia
http://nemweb.com.au/Reports/CURRENT/DispatchIS_Reports/
Interesting times lie ahead – I’m glad to have spent the money on a 2kVA generator
50
It’s worth remembering that 1896 wasn’t just the start of our worst drought and might vie with 1939 as our worst heat by extent, severity etc. (Of course, 1939 had Black Friday as well as the record death toll, and 2009 was none too shabby as a climate disaster.)
Not only was 1896 the year of the Eastern North America heat wave, when 1500 died over eleven days but – get this – it came on the heels of the 1895 Big Snow which engulfed southern states to the coast.
We now have better defenses against such extremes, but it’s clear globalists are determined to weaken those defenses by blaming them for the problem. With media saturation people can be made to at least half-believe such guff, especially since the New Man has been persuaded in various ways that history is mere anecdote and that “science” (as represented by Brian Cox or DeGrasse Tyson) is an all-knowing punisher/saviour.
We will be told by many a verbal and arithmetical trick that we are only imagining that cheap and constant power from coal is a solution. With a hundred twists and turns of accounting and data-torturing coal can now be made not only the villain but also a wimp that just can’t match it with the big boys of Renewables.
Why do the globalists want all this? Why so much debt, so much oil, so much blood, waste and mess? Quite simply, they like it, as their forbears the Bolsheviks liked it. Keep reading that paper, watching that box and listening to that morning show…you might be persuaded to like it too.
Time to turn them all off, people.
90
Yesterday’s blackout was due to fuses blowing, nothing to do with the power supply crisis – says the guvmnt. Oh Yeah?
Look out for nasty failing fuses. They are only installed to prevent damage to electrical equipment (like transformers).
I reckon the SA and Vic governments would be stupid enough to have systems without fuses.
81
The governments would be but luckily, they aren’t the grid operators.
BTW if you look into a large substations, the HV circuit breakers are truly impressive and imposing devices that are far beyond the comprehension of the greentards that want to string interconnectors all over the countryside
80
Not sure about circuit breakers, but fuses are usually set to blow at twice their rated current, or 200% overload. That would require a lot of excess external heat to blow a fuse if the current was within normal ratings.
50
t is Friday morning. Temperature outside at Mt Barker is 25 degrees. According the AEMO data dashboard power in SA costs $379.00 a megawat hour..Meanwhile in Qld and NSW power is selling for $127 & $140 a mwh..
Why ?
Because they have still have coal fired power generators… While we in SA have wind ! Now that is looney tunes..When will the government sort this out and end this stupidity ?
80
They are honouring their Paris Agreement commitment.
sarcasm
50
This article brings to mind a previous article posted here in August 2017: “South Australia generating electricity from rubbish and diesel powered jets, if they could only burn government regulations instead“
100
The Big Lie has been told and has been swallowed.
Carbon is bad! You did it, Now Pay for it.
Australia, the latest third world nation.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/01/midweek-unthreaded-57/#comment-2097110
KK
71
Notice how the GeeUppers are more than willing to agree with the skeps and even disagree with one another on all kinds of matters…but one thing is constant.
The War on Coal is their constant. The resource upon which our wealth and well-being depends is their common point of attack. This is why the GeeUppers will always find funds and foot-soldiers: the globalists who see us as a special project do not like the idea of coal rich Australia being able to avoid massive debt and energy dependence/entanglement. We can mine it, raffle it and even waste coal in any quantity…they don’t care. But we must not use it.
Which is why when I hit a keyboard I hit it for coal. Coal is my constant.
141
RERT activated for today in Victoriastan but covers most of the day this time , more factories being paid not to work today , prices in the two renewables states starting to rise as temps go up .
Will Lady Luck be with us again today ?
90
Operators cannot just stop production, take a holiday, and start up again when the government demands it, compensation with taxpayer’s monies is ridiculous.
I would be following the others to a more competitive country if I was still in business.
70
“Operators cannot just stop production…”
I agree, and the restart can be expensive and time consuming. According to an article posted December 5, 2016 Portland Aluminum lost two thirds of their capacity due to a five hour power outage. Another article posted on January 19, 2017 said that they expected it to take approximately six months to restart the smelting capacity lost to the December 2016 power outage.
80
Victorians should be praying Basslink stays up as without it the lights will go out.
70
I checked the dam storage levels for tassie hydro and it seems the levels have slightly improved on last week , if that’s true as long as the ext cord holds out the apple isle can rake in the money selling power to the mainland .
50
Only if there was a lack of reserve at the same time.
30
Lack of reserve is a given at the moment .
30
I did a click survey of the news on all channels this morning. Lots of talk about the terrible fires in Tasmania; the terrible heat in Melbourne today affecting the Australian Open; warnings to stay out of the heat; references to this summer being the hottest ever experienced in OZ, potential loss of power supply in SA was also mentioned but not on all channels….and that was it!!
So why should the ‘climate change’ groupies bother to ‘change’ anything in relation to their ‘green’ propaganda when they are so effectively protected by the MSM. The latter are rightfully confident in their continuous bulldust because, clearly, outside a tiny minority like those who read and post here, far too many, if not most, Australians have been completely brainwashed by their daily propaganda demonizing coal/fossil fuels.
Perhaps others here have a different experience but my own is that friends and family rarely, if ever, question the ‘official’ explanations/stories/claims. They think I am somewhat ‘off the planet’ to suggest the media might be deliberately feeding them misinformation on this. Brainwashing works my friends.
180
Stand firm. Let the brainwashing do its job and if it achieves its goal this nation should eventually wake up from its stupidity and finally realise that the left (including those in the LNP) are the real enemy and should be treated accordingly.
120
‘Brainwashing works my friends.’
True, in the real world we are like the village idiot.
The propaganda wing of the Klimatariat no longer mentions global warming, in regards to this heatwave, its a given. So the only way to turn the world upside down is a nasty change in the weather.
61
Perhaps more like the court jester, the only person who could tell the king a truth but keep his head, maybe!
71
Satire is faster than waiting for the weather to change, a hand picked bunch of popular comedians taking the p**s out of global warming would be an outrage.
At the risk of losing their reputation with millennials, what would be the cost to employ them? We could pass the hat around, quiet like.
70
The author of this piece has the wrong end of the stick, but worth a read.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/satire-teaching-science-climate-change/574645/
00
The brainwashing has now gone viral:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: ‘The World Is Going to End in 12 Years if We Don’t Address Climate Change’
Don’t have much time do we? Of course if that were true and there are only 12 years left there is absolutely nothing we can do to prevent it, not even if the whole world stopped living. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is much worse than just a village idiot, she is dangerous to mankind.
70
Ext cords into NSW out of action again .
50
10am AEST, the SA windfarms have died in the a$$ – capacity factor has dropped below 10%
Luckily for that state, the temperatures are lower today with only a maximum forecast of 31 deg C for Adelaide
70
https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2019/january/25
And during yesterday’s peak demand period, the SA wind farms CF was below 20%, dipping as low as 4.5% (86MW)
80
From AEMO: In Victoria, 1030 hrs to 1500 hrs 25/01/2019.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 200 MW at [approximately] 1430 hrs.
In other words there will be “brownouts”, as well as some suppliers being paid exorbitant amounts to curtail demand or run emergency generators.
Current price $477/MWhr, forecast to be $14,500 from 11.30 am to 4.00 pm when cool change is expected.
90
Price back up to yesterday’s high and load that needs to be interrupted is now 476mw .
20
Load shedding in Vic has begun. Fortunately the cool change is on its way, just passing through Anglesea with 10 degree drop, Geelong next.
50
Victoria has just now eclipsed South Australia as the highest priced electricity in the developed world – now $7432/MWh and $14500/MWh for as far as the eye can see!
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgx1baqG1FwKPnjNv
Was it a coincidence that construction commenced the same week on a 336MW wind farm in Victoria.
The guaranteed output from that wind farm at this time of year under similar conditions is ZERO. So no impact on the wholesale price of electricity on days next year or successive years when electricity is needed most.
50
Load shedding in Victoria has commenced, under the direction of AEMO
40
“Money on fire in Vic and SA electricity prices at $14,000 per MW” is a nonsense statement.
Please don’t display your ignorance by misusing terminology.
216
Are metaphors a bit hard for you, or is this your way of saying there is (was) a typo and MW should be MWh? If the latter, thanks. Typo fixed.
172
Thanks for promptly dealing with that. My original comment is overly harsh.
30
silent except to attack, rather than suggest a correction, nice
62
IS this any way to run a railroad, let alone an electricity grid?
AEMO has determined that the rolling sum of the uncapped dispatch prices for the SA region over the previous 336 trading intervals has exceeded the cumulative price threshold (CPT) of $216,900.00.
In accordance with Clause 3.14 of the National Electricity Rules, AEMO has determined that an administered price period will commence at the trading interval starting 1130 hrs on 25 Jan 2019 and will continue through to the end of that trading day.
An administered price cap (APC) of 300 $/MWh will apply to all trading intervals during this administered price period. This APC will apply to dispatch prices and to all market ancillary service prices in the SA region.
An administered floor price (AFP) of -300 $/MWh will apply to dispatch prices. A 0 $/MWh AFP will apply to all market ancillary service prices.
If they can cap prices like this, why not maintain a cap lower then $14,500?
70
Robber I’m seeing messages on AEMO I’ve never seen before , that one I think is saying $300mw Max for the operators but that just means the operators won’t supply .
40
I guess so they can motivate quick responses/bids when things are more normal. What number do you think is acceptable/rational?
20
Yarpos I reckon $80mw , in emergencies that is .
10
Powercor outage map is a bloodbath.
50
Was 67138 customers off now it’s 90038!
30
Back to 76052.
20
oops now 84926 …
Hurry up with the cool change.
40
I just sent Jo a screen capture.
Figure just now on the SA to Vic line(s)
-130 is bigger than 56 or -45.
Are they testing for a blow-out?
60
All the interconnectors are glowing red , don’t think I’ve ever seen the whole east coast like that before.
70
Now -129 +485 -39
so something looks still ack willie
10
Heads up, large areas of Western Victorian power is out!
So Second safest seat in Australia gets shafted! Wonder who made the decision to cut half of Victoria’s power off????
100
No mention of the load shedding on the ABC but they are ramping up the fake climate change stories .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-25/climate-change-effects-emerging-in-flora-fauna-research-says/10747318
61
The curious thing about this ABC story is that the scientists involved in the research simply say that Climate warming is happening. They do NOT say why the warming is happening..
That I find very interesting
20
Power cut to 60,000 Victorians
Hot temperatures expected in Victoria today before a cool change. Source: BOM.
1:49PMRACHEL BAXENDALE, PERRY WILLIAMS
Rolling power outages have been triggered as Victoria swelters under furnace-like record heat conditions.
THE NATION
Heat stress: power crisis hits home
HEATWAVE
Coal is to blame: Di Natale
Greens leader Senator Richard Di Natale addresses the media at Revolver Upstairs Night Club, Prahran, Melbourne, Wednesday, January 16, 2019. Students for Sensible Drug Policy have launched their campaign “#BeHeardNotHarmed” advocating for pill testing at events throughout Australia. (AAP Image/James Ross) NO ARCHIVING
1:14PMPRIMROSE RIORDAN
Greens leader Richard Di Natale says those complaining about power outages should think about the “sacrifices made during wartime”.
The Australian today
81
De Natale is waging war on us.
The solution attack & destroy the Greenists he leads.
Doper bastard !
20
O/T but still energy balances
“Global Energy Balances … Except When It Doesn’t”
” In it, they make a number of comparisons between observational data and 43 climate models regarding the large-scale energy flows of the planet. ”
And guess how many different estimates there are?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/24/global-energy-balances-except-when-it-doesnt/
20
Will the electricity retailers survive this week.
My contract price is about 32c/kWh ($320/MWh). If the reatailer has to buy elctricity from the supplier at $14,000/MWh and sell to me at $320, the losses are massive. Naturally I had my airconditioner on all night last night.
I suspect there may be ugent negotiations going on at government level right now.
100
Averaged out across a supply period its probably predictable variation. Summer wont come as a surpise to them so some level of uptick will be budgetted for. Sad part is it all unecessary.
The renewables people love doing business with themselves and provoking churn and complexity. All sorts of things can be harvested in the chaos.
90
Maybe not.
Do the figures. Usually the retailer can make about $150/MWh, less costs. May be $100/MWh.
Six hours at 14,000/hr cost the 84000. That would take over a month of neormal sales to make up.
20
Yeah, it’s all about the fake market that’s been set up post privatisation. The people who are supposed to get it in the neck is us, the end users, but the bizarre bidding protocols and preferred status of renewables, not to mention the generation certificates, has produced this outcome where nearly everybody takes a hit. Let’s hear if for “downward pressure on prices”.
There’s years of this rubbish ahead of us; today in Victoria is just the teaser. Dan and Lily will be having a long lunch I imagine, you know gearing up for the long weekend.
80
96,240 at 14.23
https://m.powercor.com.au/outage-map
30
to which we can add in AusNet 28435 ad 14:31 which produces well over the hundred thousand customers over Victoria.
60
Been watching this via the company’s websites. As this is rotational load shedding, cut some folks off, then move it to the next patch.
Powercor had about 60k properties. Let’s be conservative and assume 2 rotations and 2 people per property. So there’s 240k+ customers
United Energy’s had about 30k properties out. With the same assumptions that’s 120k customers.
Citipower – About 30k properties, so around 120k customers.
Jemena, not sure, but maybe the same numbers as Citipower.
So, my back of the envelope calculation says over 500,000 people affected
50
So what’s going to happen when the population is much higher in years/decades to come with the propsect if Shorten becomes PM we end up with fewer coal fired power stations? CRASH AND BURN!
90
Good question PeterS…….
Maybe its back to the scenes from the OLD block buster movies…….?
You know the ones…….a scanty clad male/female moving a large “feather fan” lol….:)
40
Too early to surrender, put down the white flag. I notice Cory is being opportunistic, what do you make of it?
‘Cory Bernardi says the focus of his Australian Conservatives party at the federal election will almost exclusively be on the Senate other than for a small number of lower house seats that will be targeted on an “opportunistic basis where we think we can shape outcomes”.
‘This could include Peter Dutton’s marginal Queensland seat of Dickson and Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah.
‘Both are central to left-wing activist group GetUp’s campaign to oust “hard-right MPs” and where preferences are expected to play a key role in the outcome.’
Oz
20
If things continue as I suspect they will the time to surrender is probably many years from now and it will be to the Chinese. I just hope we as a nation wake up to avoid it.
As for Bernardi he has good intentions and good policies (far better than the LNP’s or ON) but unfortunately very few are listening. He’s just not leadership material but then again the others are no better. The federal election will be interesting to say the least. I am considering it to be one of the greatest if not the greatest litmus test for this nation’s awareness, sanity and intelligence.
20
A consequence of not teaching real history in schools any more is that most people are unaware why windmills were rapidy abandoned first time around as soon as Newcomen developed the first practical steam engine in 1712.
82
Australians are getting conditioned to accept Third World style electricity delivery which is intermittent unreliable and expensive. Will there be complaints about load shedding today? Not too many….
71
Victorians have been conditioned to believe that so-called blistering temperature has stressed the power supply.
No one is going to come out and say that the billions spent on wind generators has been wasted because they could only supply 20% of rated capacity when really needed.
The story will be that wind power saved the grid from total collapse or load shedding would have been much more severe had it not been for wind generators.
60
25 Jan: WarrnamboolStandard: A number of locations in the south-west are experiencing a forced power blackout
by Brian Allen
Camperdown, Woolsthorpe, Grassmere and Mailors Flat are among a group of towns experiencing a forced blackout.
The Australian Energy Market Operator has forced a blackout in Victoria that will impact at least 60,000 customers, lasting up to two hours.
As a result of high temperatures across the state, high demand and reduced generation availability, loss of electricity load to regions has been required to ensure power system security…
AEMO is cutting around 200 megawatts to prevent a state-wide blackout.
Energy Safe Victoria has issued safety advice for households without electricity supply due to load shedding.
Advice includes…
• If supplies have not been restored to homes, householders must not connect generators or perform other electrical work around the home. Such practice is both illegal and dangerous. Electrical work can only be carried out by licensed electricians…READ ON
https://www.standard.net.au/story/5870360/south-west-part-of-forced-power-blackout-across-state/?cs=72
Why thousands lost power on the hottest day ever
Adelaide Advertiser – 2h ago
Several hundred homes remained without power on Friday morning after 25,000 customers were blacked-out on SA’s hottest day ever — now the reason why has been revealed, and the impact could have been far worse.
30
Blackout my place, third this month, who cares, my 10Kv gas standby generator kicked in after 30 seconds.
A/C going full bore, both of them.
This reminds me of the generators factories had to have in the 50’s.
Ain’t progress wonderfull.
80
I thought this article on what is happening in New York, could be of interest.
https://streetwiseprofessor.com/
40
Heat stress: power crisis hits home
In Depth – The Australian – 15h ago
Zibelman says all is well:
25 Jan: 3AW: Power company told to start cutting power to save energy
The Australian Energy Market Operator has ordered power cuts in several Melbourne suburbs as Victoria’s energy supplies struggle to keep up.
Three hours after AEMO boss Audrey Zibelman assured Neil Mitchell “the networks are performing really well”, they have told power company Jemena to start “load shedding”.
That means power will be cut for short periods to conserve supplies
North-western suburbs including Essendon and Broadmeadows will be impacted.
“Jemena has been instructed by [AEMO] to shed customer load to ensure broader stability of the Vic electricity system,” Jemena tweeted.
“Impacted suburbs include: Glenroy, Oak Park, Broadmeadows, Essendon, Strathmore, and Kalkallo. We will keep you updated as we know more.”
Wind power and other reserves will prevent any brown-outs as Victoria swelters, according to the market operator…
Click PLAY to hear more of Neil Mitchell’s interview with Audrey Zibelman…
Alcoa’s aluminium smelter had to power down for more than an hour last night to conserve supplies…
https://www.3aw.com.au/another-power-generator-has-shut-down-we-cant-rule-out-brown-outs/
110
It seems that the inner city Greens/DINKs-populated Melbourne suburbs are being supplied with power at all times. The middle and outer layer more family-populated suburbs seem to be wearing the power-rationing cuts. Hey, that seems to fit the Greens policy intent.
61
It seems that the inner city Greens/DINKs-populated Melbourne suburbs are being supplied with power at all times. The middle and outer layer more family-populated suburbs seem to be wearing the power-rationing cuts. Hey, that seems to fit the Greens policy intent
81
Actually MMXX, that’s perfect…
Family voters will know wh not to vote for next time…
20
I predicted this would be the story line:
What she does not say is that the wind generators are producing next to useless 20% of rated capacity.
The AUD10+bn spent on wind generators over the last 10 years has been wasted when it comes to typical summer conditions in southern Australia; high temperature and little wind. Who could have predicted this!
71
Not today they won’t. SA & VIC total 49 MW from wind. ATM.
10
I predicted this would be the story line:
What she does not say is that the wind generators are producing next to useless 20% of rated capacity.
The AUD10+bn spent on wind generators over the last 10 years has been wasted when it comes to typical summer conditions in southern Australia; high temperature and little wind. Who could have predicted this!
50
Just consider it a really expensive ‘education’.
60
just wondering with all the suburbs affected by load shedding; have any of the inner city, latte sipping suburbs suffering. Similarly, in the green leafy suburbs that vote green or labor are they affected by load shedding, or is it the poor bastard who is on minimal pay or pension having to carry the burden of all this nonsensical rush to renewables?
90
gas, coal, extreme heat…anything but “renewables”:
25 Jan: Sky News: Dated coal and gas infrastructure to blame for Vic blackouts: State Energy Minister
Power has been turned back on in Victoria after the Australian Energy Market Operator on Friday directed companies to cut electricity for up to 200,000 people at a time.
State Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio has ***blamed dating coal and gas infrastructure for most of the power grid failure, which lost 1,800 megawatts of capacity, while praising the generation from renewables.
The operator originally said it would affect just 30,000 people at a time before quickly jumping to 60,000 and 100,000.
A swift drop in temperature in the late afternoon helped the grid recover from the stress ***brought on by extreme heat.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/investigators-had-50-50-chance-of-securing-fisa-warrant-for-trump-aide-without-dossier-testimony
40
If 25% of Hazelwood was running, it would not have happened today. It was only 42 degrees, we have had worse. AEMO needed an additional couple of hundred MW or so. The Yallourn issue could have easily been covered with Hazelwood running or another suitable replacement (ie. large, thermal generation)
110
When needed most, the 5661MW of wind generators in Australia was delivering 1231MW. That means 80% of the wind capacity went missing. The more than AUD10bn spend on these intermittents has been wasted.
The LNP need to be vocal about this to give the correct perspective.
We live in an area with two relatively large hospital. We had two very short outages, of the order of 1 second, today possibly related to switching to isolate loads elsewhere.
81
‘As extreme heat leaves 160,000 Victorian homes without power, the Morrison government has come under attack over the blackouts.’ Oz
This has all played into Morrison’s hands, we need to start building new coal plants.
70
Yes he has plenty of ammunition to attack the ALP+Greens but he should have started the attack months ago. He’s leaving it too late. I just hope it’s the next best situation; better late than never. His performance during the election campaign will be critical. He really needs to pull his finger out if he is truly a coal supporter. I sometimes wonder if he believes in CAGW just like Turnbull did.
50
No he is being bullsh*tted by the Canberra bureaucracy, who all are waiting for their Labor party to be elected in May…
10
In that case we as a nation will have to learn it the hard way and hope one day to have a strong leader who somehow makes those bureaucrats accountable and replaces them.
20
Lily D’Ambrosio is an ideological Greenist dope.
She is not there for the working people of Victoria..Only for the renewable lobby.
30
Let’s face it, this is a second tier government in a third tier nation; we’re not entitled to expect quality in its ministers but Lily is truly bottom drawer clueless and completely out of her depth in comprehending the ramifications of the energy portfolio at any level. Lord alone knows how toxically green her departmental advisers are. She was saved by Basslink today but when Dan dynamites Loy Yang it’ll be time to go and join Jo in the West as gas free Victoria will be a diesel powered shambles.
20
So why couldn’t brand new wind and solar pick up the slack?
50
LENGTHY, CLEARLY YOU NEED TO READ IT ALL:
25 Jan: RenewEconomy: Sophie Vorrath: Grid held together by solar, load management, as coal fails in heat
In comments to press on Friday, AEMO chief Audrey Zibelman said the load shedding was based on the maximum amount that could be taken off in an area, and was equitably distribute across the region.
“It’s up to two hours, is what we’ve asked for. So, hopefully what we’ll do is we’ll see it through, it will be for a temporary period of time, they’ll restore it.
“And if we do additional load shedding, usually the process is they go to different areas. So, it is – we call it rotating brown-outs for that very reason. As I said, you try to get people off for a short period, and then get them back on so, you know, because to give people relief.”
The market operator has also had its RERT (Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader) mechanism in action since around 8.30am on Friday morning, again for a second time in under two days…
Another success story from grid events like today’s comes from demand management – including that harnessed through AEMO’s emergency RERT mechanism…
David Evans, the director of commercial and engineering at specialist commercial retailer Flow Power says that with the introduction of demand management programs he has seen a significant increase in the interest customers to participate.
“Demand response, from the customer side, you have two options: you can add more generation – which can be quite difficult – or you can reduce load.
“Taking demand off the grid has the same effect of adding generation, which has the same effect of adding load. And through demand response it can be implemented very, very quickly,” he said.
“(Commercial and industrial customers) are starting to understand that the market has very different pricing points depending on what’s happening,” Evans told RE.
“They can see that there is both an opportunity to save money and help out the grid. In essence what you start transitioning to is a much more efficient market.”…
FROM COMMENTS:
Powercor turned me off for 3 hrs today I was exporting 3KW at the time…..carn’t wait for cheaper battery system to give the unreliable grid the flick
Yep, nothing like a bit of load shedding to turbo charge storage uptake.
Just now at 5.15PM on Friday it looks like Qld solar, plus SA wind plus Tas hydro is making up the shortfall in Vic and NSW.
We need more wind turbines in NSW and QLD…
Shilo • 2 hours ago
I would not call yesterday anything other than a complete stuff up in Victoria and SA. How can it be anything other. The cost was simply huge.
Why was the battery in SA, Allowed to charge and discharge during periods of demand that saw the price at its max.
The battery was adding to the demand, people and industry asked to stop useing power.
Why did SA have a price so high, when they spent so much money after 2016, to make them selves more robust?.
I did not see during the high demand times that SA was being powered by 40 odd% RE, it looked like a lot less, most the bar chart was RED, which means gas?.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/grid-held-together-by-solar-load-management-as-coal-fails-in-heat-18324/
70
5.15 pm Queensland solar would be doing diddly squat !
20
This is my comment on the thread:
Although there are few venting over power loss most of the comments are about the need for grid storage or better insulated buildings.
Making comments on Reneweconomy hits a different demographic to this blog. I luv stirring the pot at renew.
40
A few years ago [maybe more] there was an experiment done in Germany where buildings were clad with insulating materials. They found no energy saving because the cladding prevented the building from heating up naturally during the day.
I have no links and am working on a faded memory. DYOR
30
OT ,As if Adani didn’t have enough trouble , now the UN wants the OZ govt to intervene .
40
Why does everyone hate the people of India SO MUCH that they want to keep them without electricity.
All they want is a good supply of reasonable quality coal, and they are prepared to pay Australia to get it.
Its a win-win situation from every perspective.
Personally, I find the fight against Adani quite repugnant.
90
I see the Victoriastan energy minister has found the reason for load shedding , it was coal and gas but mainly unreliable old coal .
30
The first thing my lefty son did was to blame a generator down for maintenance and another which failed. Asked for details he rolled his eyes: Old pharts want to know everything!
50
We do.
Only the facts matter to old farts !
20
Well
Things are crook in the south!
http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview
30
Tony from Oz does a daily analysis of how the power we use is generated in the AEMO area..He’s been doing this for 29 weeks. His unemotional factual analysis shows us all how stupid relying on renewables is.
His analysis for yesterday is particularly informative : https://papundits.wordpress.com/2019/01/25/australian-daily-electrical-power-generation-data-thursday-24th-january-2019/comment-page-1/#comment-36531
40
25 Jan: BBC: Big rise in atmospheric CO2 expected in 2019
By Matt McGrath
Met Office researchers expect to record one of the biggest rises in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in 2019.
Every year, the Earth’s natural carbon sinks such as forests soak up large amounts of CO2 produced by human activities.
But in years when the tropical Pacific region is warmer like this year, trees and plants grow less and absorb smaller amounts of the gas.
As a result, scientists say 2019 will see a much bigger CO2 rise than 2018…
According to the Met Office, these limits on the ability to absorb CO2 will see a rise in concentrations this year of 2.75 parts per million, which is higher than the 2018 level.
They are forecasting that average CO2 concentrations in 2019 will be 411ppm…
“The year-on-year increase of CO2 is getting steadily bigger as it has done throughout the whole of the 20th century,” said (Dr Chris Jones from the Met Office)…
Other researchers say the Met Office findings are worrying.
“The increases in CO2 are a function of our continued reliance on fossil fuels,” said Dr Anna Jones, from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS)…
***The Met Office scientists say that it doesn’t always follow that a record CO2 concentration will lead to a record global temperature in 2019, as there are many natural factors that can impact the final figure.
The researchers there are pleased that observations over the past four years show that their model is accurate…
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46989789
10
hope I am explaining this properly.
theirABC was running with this on their news bulletins this morning, with Harrabin presenting it as a done thing – Barents was now in the Atlantic ocean:
24 Jan: BBC: Roger Harrabin: ‘Tipping point’ risk for Arctic hotspot
A rapid climate shift under way in the Barents Sea could spread to other Arctic regions, scientists warn.
The Barents Sea is said to be at a tipping point, changing from an Arctic climate to an Atlantic climate as the water gets warmer.
A conference in Norway heard that the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea – both further to the east – are likely to become the new Arctic frontier…
It may also impact on global weather patterns, although there’s no agreement on that…
So it’s now only a matter of time, the researchers say, before this section of the Arctic effectively becomes part of the Atlantic. It could happen in as little as a decade, they warn…
She said the shift was so rapid that the whole Barents Sea could be completely sea ice-free within a few decades – possibly even a decade. Then a new polar frontier region would probably develop further east, in the Kara Sea or Laptev Sea…
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46976040
read all the Guardian piece:
24 Jan: Guardian: Military buildup in Arctic as melting ice reopens northern borders
As ice melts and shipping lanes open up, geopolitical tensions are growing and old cold war bases are being reopened
by Jonathan Watts
By 2035, the Arctic is forecast to be free of ice during summer, which will allow ships to sail across the north pole…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/military-buildup-in-arctic-as-melting-ice-reopens-northern-borders
10
Meanwhile in the real world…
The Arctic ocean is frozen solid !
Perhaps they have not heard.
Perhaps hey did not want to know.
Being lost in the bliss
Of a model predicted future.
30
24 Jan: ClimateChangeNews: Last minute talks to set end date for German coal power
A leaked draft report from Germany’s coal commission leaves coal exit timetable open as talks head into final days
By Sören Amelang
(This article was originally published on ***Clean Energy Wire)
Germany’s detailed coal exit path and the end-date to coal-fired power generation remain unknown only days before a highly anticipated phase-out proposal is due to be published.
A leaked draft of the final report of the country’s coal commission seen by the Clean Energy Wire suggests agreements on compensation for coal plant operators, support for affected mining regions, and measures to shield consumers from rising power prices. The draft also refers to Germany’s 2030 emission reduction targets for the energy sector as a guideline for the exit in accordance with its mandate. But the most pressing details from a climate perspective still need to be thrashed out during a marathon session scheduled for Friday 25 January: How many coal-fired power plants will go offline in the near future, and when will the last one be switched off?…
The draft document runs to 133 pages, and contains only five pages where details still need to be settled – but these concern a plan for coal power plant closures. Passages detailing the exit path are still littered with empty brackets “[XX]” that need to be filled with dates and coal power plant capacities following the final round of negotiations. The draft also doesn’t specify whether the embattled Hambach Forest, which has become a symbol for anti-coal activism in Germany and beyond, will be preserved…
The coal commission’s proposal is not legally binding, but since the task force is backed by a large majority in parliament, the government is widely expected to follow its recommendations…
The entire phase-out is to be reviewed again in 2023, 2026 and 2029 with a view to security of supply, prices, climate protection and structural change…
It remains open whether the final document will contain a final exit date at all, because the draft says a target corridor of several years is an alternative possibility…
But environmental NGOs represented in the commission still insist on an earlier date. Greenpeace rejected a proposal by energy minister Peter Altmaier to review Germany’s forthcoming coal exit strategy by 2030 to ensure power supply security, arguing that the exit has to be “completed, not reviewed” by that date to comply with Germany’s climate targets…
Environmental NGO WWF criticised the commission for not making much headway regarding climate policy decisions. “Money for structural economic change, for power plant operators, power price compensation: The coal commission makes progress on all fronts but climate action,” said WWF Germany’s head of climate and energy policy, Michael Schäfer.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/01/24/last-minute-talks-set-end-date-german-coal-power/
***Clean Energy Wire – Funders
Clean Energy Wire CLEW is a joint initiative of the Stiftung Mercator and the European Climate Foundation. The foundations have decided to extend funding for Clean Energy Wire’s successful work – including the German language project on climate science http://www.klimafakten.de – until 2021 after an external evaluation confirmed the quality and effectiveness of both projects…READ ON
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/clew-funders
Wikipedia: Stiftung Mercator
(google translation)
Activities
Since 2010, Stiftung Mercator has been bundling its projects in the areas of climate change, Europe, integration and cultural education. Perhaps your most prominent project is the Agora Energiewende initiative, which is also supported by the European Climate Foundation. Agora Energiewende sees itself as an energy policy den lab and wants to prepare the way for the energy transition through studies, expertise, workshops and similar initiatives.
The Stiftung Mercator founded in 2013 the think tank Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), an institute of contemporary and practice-oriented China research in the legal form of a non-profit GmbH with Sebastian Heilmann as the founding director…
10
Why is it that NSW almost never meets its own demand? At 9 PM EST they are importing 1.4 GW. One would assume that with tight supply that there is no way they would have backed off any boilers which would have been “all hands on deck” during the day.
I’ve said it before: They are playing ducks and drakes limiting supply to maximise price. Enron did that and were taken to court, here it is perfectly legal.
50
remember this joke!
15 Nov 2018: Guardian: Letter from Alex Kirby, BBC News environment correspondent, 1987-1996
David Attenborough is probably guilty of assuming that his viewers will usually be intelligent enough to join the dots and work out for themselves the implications of what he shows them (George Monbiot: Attenborough has betrayed the living world he loves, 7 November). The people who have a much more serious responsibility for the threadbare coverage the BBC has given to climate change and other environmental crises are the editors who for many years refused to treat climatology as a serious branch of science, and whose notion of “balance” led them to insist on equal airtime for people who, for whatever reason, have denied and often sought to discredit the scientists who say human activities are warming the Earth.
BBC’s CAGW propaganda never ends…and exploiting children is par for the course for them:
VIDEO: 1min05sec: 25 Jan: BBC Newsround: European kids skip school to protest climate change
Young people across Europe have been skipping school and taking to the streets to demand politicians do more to tackle climate change.
Many of those protesting do not believe that leaders are doing enough to change things.
Their protest is inspired by 16 year old Swedish student Greta, who performs a school strike every Friday to protest in front of the Swedish parliament.
Watch the video of young people taking part in Belgium to find out more about why these young protesters are striking.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/46988772
-18C with gloBULL warming on her mind:
24 Jan: Guardian: Teenage activist takes School Strikes 4 Climate Action to Davos
Protest by 16-year-old Greta Thunberg snowballs to last day of World Economic Forum
by Graeme Wearden in Davos and Damian Carrington
Greta Thunberg, whose solo protest outside Sweden’s parliament has snowballed across the globe, will join a strike by Swiss schoolchildren in the ski resort on Friday – the final day of the World Economic Forum.
Thunberg travelled by train for 32 hours to reach Davos, and spent Wednesday night camped with climate scientists on the mountain slopes – ***where temperatures plunged to -18C…
As she travelled down Davos’s funicular railway from the Arctic Base Camp – while more than 30,000 students were striking in Belgium – Thunberg said the rapid growth of her movement was “incredible”…
In the UK, only a small number of students have so far begun strikes, including 13-year-old Holly Gillibrand in Fort William. But plans are now being made for a big strike on 15 February. Thunberg predicts there will be protests in many locations…
“We need to hold the older generations accountable for the mess they have created, and expect us to live with. It is not fair that we have to pay for what they have caused,” she says…
In Belgium, 12,500 students went on strike last Thursday and plan to strike weekly until the EU elections in May. Some teachers were tolerant of the truancy. Patrick Lancksweerdt, in Brussels, said: “Education has to turn youngsters into mature citizens. By their actions, they proved that they are.”…
Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace, says youth activism on climate change gives her hope. “The 15-year-olds just speak truth to power.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/24/school-strikes-over-climate-change-continue-to-snowball
shame on the CAGW mob at BBC and The Guardian.
10
***leave them alone…they have papers to prepare:
25 Jan: ClimateChangeNews: Stop asking climate scientists how we feel
Comment: A recent focus on scientists’ emotional responses to global warming is misplaced; the important question is how society will manage climate risk
By Eric Guilyardi and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
(Eric Guilyardi is a professor of climate science at the University of Reading. Valérie Masson-Delmotte is co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s working group one)
In recent weeks in France, there has been a profusion of articles about the “climate scientist blues”, which has apparently been affecting them “scientifically”. This follows a spate of similar articles in the US and Australian media. But what is the point of knowing the mood of scientists, or whether so-and-so is optimistic or pessimistic?
Are epidemiologists asked if they are depressed when they anticipate an epidemic outbreak, or meteorologists polled about their anxiety because they predicted a storm or a heatwave? In these cases, society organizes to manage the risk related to these forecasts (orange or red alerts, weather watches and warnings) and does not care about the emotions of the scientists. The main reason most climate scientists come out of the lab and engage publicly is not to share their subjective emotions about the state of the world, but rather to discuss the results and consequences of our science…
***With more than 20,000 scientific publications each year with the key word “climate change”, the production of new knowledge is proceeding quickly…
The third risk is rapid transition to the economy and the current global financial system through the ‘stranded assets’ of capital invested in the fossil fuel industry…
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/01/25/stop-asking-climate-scientists-feel/
10
Reuters spreads the propaganda:
25 Jan: Reuters: Record-breaking heatwave triggers power cuts on Australia’s stressed grid
by Sonali Paul; additional reporting by Melanie Burton
Blistering heat triggered power outages on Australia’s strained grid on Friday as demand for air-conditioning soared and coal-fired generators struggled to meet the surge in consumption…
The record-breaking heatwave over the past week sent power prices soaring across southeastern Australia…
Supply was tight, with a total of 1,800 megawatts (MW) of generation offline in the country’s east, AEMO Chief Executive Audrey Zibelman said on Australian Broadcasting Corp TV. AGL Energy’s Loy Yang power plant and EnergyAustralia’s Yallourn, both in Victoria, were among those with units down.
Transmission links from the states of Tasmania, New South Wales and South Australia were transferring power to Victoria at full capacity, Zibelman said…
Temperatures in the South Australian capital of Adelaide rose to just shy of 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) on Thursday, a record high…
Victoria Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said it was clear Australia’s summers were getting longer, hotter and more extreme because of climate change.
“We can see that the problem we’ve got now is that we’ve got a 20th century system for a 21st century climate,” she told reporters at a televised briefing…
Last summer, the reserve program cost the market operator A$52 million.
However, the power cut to Alcoa on Thursday came without notice because of unexpectedly high temperatures, causing demand to spike, the AEMO said.
“Alcoa will not be compensated for the curtailment,” Alcoa spokeswoman Jodie Read said.
But Friday’s cut to Alcoa will be under the reserve agreement…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-power/record-breaking-heatwave-triggers-power-cuts-on-australias-stressed-grid-idUSKCN1PJ0AB
20
UEA at it again:
24 Jan: E&E News: Study links climate change and war refugees
by Jean Chemnick
Researchers in the United Kingdom have found the strongest link yet between climate change, conflict and migration.
The report (LINK) released yesterday by authors at the University of East Anglia looked at asylum applications for 157 countries between 2006 and 2015. It found that in certain years and certain contexts, warming-related drought sparked conflicts that sent refugees abroad.
The study found the clearest climate fingerprint on the violent conflicts that erupted in western Asia and in sub-Saharan Africa between 2011 and 2015 and that resulted in migration. Climate change had a hand in the Arab Spring uprising in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Syria between 2010 and 2012.
Outward migration after those conflicts is indirectly linked to climate change, according to the report.
“We can say the effect of climate change on migration is causal, and it operates through conflict,” said ***Raya Muttarak, one of the report’s co-authors.
She stressed that climate change may also contribute to low agricultural yields and gross domestic product — conditions that might set the stage for conflict or compel people to leave a country…
The UEA study comes at a time when defense agencies, global finance and the United Nations are all grappling with the threat climate change poses to global stability…
Tomorrow, the U.N. Security Council is set to hold a debate in New York on “addressing the impacts of climate-related disasters on international peace and security.”…
The Caribbean nation has made climate change the top priority of its first turn on the Security Council, which began this month and includes chairing Friday’s debate…
Still, Camilla Born, senior policy adviser on risk and security issues at the U.K.-based E3G, said the Security Council must move beyond its 20th-century conception of what constitutes a security risk to look at nontraditional issues like displacement and migration, both of which can be destabilizing.
“The reality is that climate change is shaping the conversations that they’re having in the Security Council now,” she said. “And increasingly, that’s becoming unavoidable.”
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060118349
***Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
Raya Muttarak, Director
About
Raya Muttarak holds an MSc and DPhil in sociology from the University of Oxford. She is a senior lecturer (associate professor) in Geography and International Development at the School of International Development, University of East Anglia, UK. Her recent research projects include: 1) the role of education in climate actions and sustainable development; 2) differential impacts of climate variability on health, migration and child welfare; and 3) climate change perceptions and environmentally sustainable behaviours. Furthermore, she is also actively engaged in empirical studies on a variety of topics ranging from health and health behaviours, immigrants’ integration, fertility behaviour to impacts of China’s One Belt, One Road strategies…READ ON
http://www.wittgensteincentre.org/en/staff/member/muttarak.htm
10
UEA report timed for this?
2 Jan: CleanEnergyWire: Germany takes up seat in UN Security Council, aims to put climate into focus
Germany has assumed a two-year seat as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the sixth time since the international peace and security organ was formed following World War II. The German government has said it plans to use its diplomatic clout to ensure that climate change concerns are an integral part of UN security policy…
People who are most vulnerable to global warming, such those in Pacific Island states, are counting on Germany, with its long history of environmental advocacy, to put the issue back on the agenda in 2019/20. The German government expects this won’t be easy, after the recent shift in climate policy by some permanent Security Council members, like the US.
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-takes-seat-un-security-council-aims-put-climate-focus
25 Jan: Deutsche Welle: Alexander Pearson: Germany pledges hands-on role at UN Security Council
The INF treaty, Venezuela and climate change: These are just some of the areas Germany wants to tackle in its two-year stint on the international body. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told DW what Berlin was planning to do.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is set to represent Germany at the United Nations Security Council session on Friday for the first time since Berlin took over a non-permanent seat on the body at the beginning of the year…
On climate change:
Germany would also try to tackle the security challenges posed by climate change.
“Climate and security is one of those issues that is not getting enough attention,” Maas said. “And the connection between climate change and security issues is becoming increasingly important.”…
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-pledges-hands-on-role-at-un-security-council/a-47226145
10
25 Jan: Reuters: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive
by Mark Bendeich
DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) – The global solar power industry is about to lose a major competitive windfall as prices of Chinese-made solar panels begin to recover after a collapse last year, the leader of one of the world’s top manufacturers said on Thursday.
“The party if definitely over,” said Eric Luo, president of China’s GCL System Integration Technology Co, a top-10 maker of solar panels, feeding the fastest-growing renewable power sector….
Luo said solar panel prices were already stabilizing and he expected them to rebound by 10 to 15 percent as the Chinese industry consolidates over the next year or two.
Given panels represent close to half of a solar farm’s installation costs, that threatens to eat into the returns of investors…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-solar-gcl/party-is-over-for-dirt-cheap-solar-panels-says-china-executive-idUSKCN1PI2OQ
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Of course the rolling blackouts were the fault of thermal power generators……
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22 Jan: Mother Jones: Google, Facebook, and Microsoft Sponsored a Conference That Promoted Climate Change Denial
The conference was backed by a group founded to spread the “good news” about carbon emissions.
by Stephanie Mencimer
Google, Facebook, and Microsoft have publicly acknowledged the dangers of global warming, but last week they all sponsored a conference that promoted climate change denial to young libertarians.
All three tech companies were sponsors of LibertyCon, the annual convention of the libertarian group Students for Liberty, which took place in Washington, DC. Google was a platinum sponsor, ponying up $25,000, and Facebook and Microsoft each contributed $10,000 as gold sponsors. The donations put the tech companies in the top tier of the event’s backers. But the donations also put the firms in company with some of the event’s other sponsors, which included three groups known for their work attacking climate change science and trying to undermine efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
Among the most notable was the CO2 Coalition, a group founded in 2015 to spread the “good news” about a greenhouse gas whose increase in the atmosphere is linked to potentially catastrophic climate change. The coalition is funded by conservative foundations that have backed other climate change denial efforts. These include the Mercer Family Foundation, which in recent years has donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to right-wing think tanks engaged in climate change denialism, and the Charles Koch Institute, the charitable arm of one of the brothers behind Koch Industries, the oil and gas behemoth.
In the LibertyCon exhibit hall, the CO2 Coalition handed out brochures that said its goal is to “explain how our lives and our planet Earth will be improved by additional atmospheric carbon dioxide.” One brochure claimed that “more carbon dioxide will help everyone, including future generations of our families” and that the “recent increase in CO2 levels has had a measurable, positive effect on plant life,” apparently because the greenhouse gas will make plants grow faster…
The CO2 Coalition wasn’t the only group sponsoring LibertyCon that is known for its work undermining efforts to combat climate change. Along with Facebook and Microsoft, the Heartland Institute was also a gold sponsor of the event…READ ON
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/01/google-facebook-and-microsoft-sponsored-a-conference-that-promoted-climate-change-denial/
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24 Jan: LSE Grantham: Fundamental flaw in Press watchdog’s complaints process helps newspapers to promote climate change denial
by Bob Ward
The Independent Press Standards Organisation has today published details of a decision that exposes a fundamental flaw in its process for dealing with complaints about fake news articles about climate change.
IPSO was set up in 2014 by a group of newspapers in the wake of the UK Government’s failure to implement fully the recommendations of the Leveson Inquiry.
It is funded by its member newspapers, which do not include ‘The Guardian’ or the ‘Financial Times’. It considers complaints that are covered by the Editors’ Code of Practice.
IPSO’s Complaints Committee decided not to uphold my complaint about an article published last summer in the ‘Daily Mail’ which denied that climate change is having any effect on heatwaves in the UK.
The article was written by Christopher Booker, a veteran columnist for ‘The Sunday Telegraph’ who regularly promotes climate change denial and writes occasional propaganda pamphlets for the Global Warming Policy Foundation…READ ON
http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/fundamental-flaw-in-press-watchdogs-complaints-process-helps-newspapers-to-promote-climate-change-denial/
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25 Jan: UK Express: Dog and hare freeze to death while WALKING as temperatures drop to -56C
PICTURES of a dog and hare that froze to death in exceptionally cold weather in Kazakhstan have caused a storm from animal rights activists.
By Will Stewart
https://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/909890/kazakhstan-weather-forecast-sub-zero-temperatures-frozen-dog
no storm of outrage over this battle against carbon taxes, though!
23 Jan: Breitbart: Doctors Say Number of Serious Injuries Inflicted on Yellow Vests Unprecedented
by Chris Tomlinson
Doctors, activists and others are sounding the alarm over the number of serious injuries suffered by Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) movement activists at the hands of police during the past several weeks.
The French Interior Ministry has claimed that in the first nine weeks of the Yellow Vest protests around 1,800 protesters and 1,000 police officers have been injured but have not separated out those with serious injuries, L’Express reports.
Doctors in France’s emergency rooms say that some of the injuries have been extremely serious, blaming the police use of “flash-ball” shots which have led to some of the most serious injuries, including at least four protestors, two of them women, who have lost an eye and suffered some form of disfigurement.
Documentary filmmaker David Dufresne has revealed the details of some of the most serious injuries, listing protestors who have lost hands, had jaws shattered or their eyes ripped open….READ ON
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/01/23/doctors-say-number-of-serious-injuries-inflicted-on-yellow-vests-unprecedented/
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Exactly my solar system has a nameplate rating of 3.04kW with annual capacity factor of 14% using BOM average peak sun hours at my location
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