Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Who knew? The polar vortices are the two strongest and largest “storms” on the planet. These continent scale storms are 600 miles across with winds raging at 300km per hour. Simon Clark is doing (or has done) a PhD in polar vortexes. He describes how each winter they form high over the poles. These are stratospheric, circling far above jet streams and planes. The tight circular pattern keeps the coldest air corralled. But every now again, the neat circle falls apart. In the polar stratosphere sometimes temperatures warm in days by stupid amounts, like 50 degrees C. It’s called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and one started around Christmas time.
As Clark describes it, these are easily the most violent weather events on the planet. (They sound fascinating). As with unbalanced centrifuges, when things unravel, as the high speed system unravels, the arctic cold could spin off anywhere — this week it’s the US, but Europe and Russia are often targets too. There is a lag involved — after an SSW it may take two weeks for things to hit the fan on the surface, so to speak. Generally, when an SSW hits it presages a brutal winter with outbreaks of super-cold blobs down for the next month or two.
I’m reminded of Stephen Wilde’s prediction years ago that we would see more meandering jet streams with a less active Sun. Hypothetically, if he were right, this is what it might look like. The American Midwest is colder than Antarctica, temperatures are hitting minus 50C. Eight people have died (even an 18 year old student). Instead of using electricity, some places are keeping the poor warm by letting them ride on buses. Railways tracks are being set alight to keep trains running and Hell really has frozen over.
Naturally, the Eco-worriers are saying it was misplaced Moroccan warm air. Knowledge is ignorance, Pain is bliss, and warm air causes cold air.
Simon Clark | Watch especially from 1:20
But really it’s climate change, trust me, and besides, how can you argue with this:
Some scientists—but by no means most—see a connection between human-caused climate change and difference in atmospheric pressure that causes slower moving waves in the air.
“It’s a complicated story that involves a hefty dose of chaos and an interplay among multiple influences, so extracting a clear signal of the Arctic’s role is challenging,” said Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center. Several recent papers have made the case for the connection, she noted.
“This symptom of global warming is counterintuitive for those in the cross-hairs of these extreme cold spells,” Francis said in an email. “But these events provide an excellent opportunity to help the public understand some of the ‘interesting’ ways that climate change will unfold.”
Trust The Guardian to fall for the post hoc genius and ask a question they already knew the answer to in 1990:
Is this weather event linked to climate change?
Studies have pointed to a recent increase in instances where the polar vortex has bulged down into heavily populated areas. Scientists are gaining a better understanding of why this is happening, with many identifying climate change as an influence.
There’s some evidence that the jet stream, a meandering air current that flows over North America and Europe, is slowing and becoming wavier as the planet warms. The jet stream interacts with the polar vortex, helping bring numbing temperatures further south.
And the “evidence” they link too is a Michael Mann et al paper from 2018. Having noticed that polar vortex disturbances are on the increase, they find a way to link it to your SUV:
Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by ~50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease.
Even post hoc, the models are useless.
h/t Tallbloke, See Extreme rainfall events.
Some clever scientists at University College London are suggesting that re-colonising Africa would completely offset the effects of global warming: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47063973. If you follow there maths, suppressing only a few hundred millions inhabitants would allow vegetation to reclaim land, and “pull down enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to eventually chill the planet”. QED.
—- Added to the post on this (where these discussions are on topic now). – Thanks, Jo
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Maybe the “clever scientists” were inspired by this 2009 paper on the Aztec solution to CC: https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2009/06/the-aztec-solution/
Aztec solution: a recently discovered relationship with important implications for global warming mitigation. Modelling data from an analysis of the Codex Cihuacoatl revealed a strong causal pathway between climate change and the Aztec rituals of “nourishing the gods” with blood sacrifice.
“Revival of humane human sacrifice (HHS) is recommended as a mechanism for retarding environmental degradation, reducing dangerous climate change and improving crop yields by allowing more effective control of surface temperature and rainfall; creating anthropogenic biochar for soil enhancement and long-term carbon enrichment, especially in tropical environments with low-carbon sequestration capacity and depleted ferrasol and acrisol zones; and reducing population growth rates as Gaia’s carrying capacity comes under further pressure this century.”
ABC radio interview here: https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/counterpoint/the-aztec-solution/3123670
Podcast here: https://abcmedia.akamaized.net/rn/podcast/2009/07/cpt_20090720_1633.mp3 (11 minutes)
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HHS. Bill Gates has to go first!
Immediately, Now!
He’s a dodgy human …
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Tim Cook for me. I am an Apple guy, but Cook is as sinister as I’ve seen for a Silicon Valley monster. I can’t find it right now, but there was a recent speech…
To think, people thought Jobs was a problem.
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Jobs was a pussy-cat in comparison.
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I can’t help wondering where all the real scientists have gone. Maybe the fact that the UN Church of Climatology has a strangle hold on anything to do with climate (globul warming) prevents real scientists getting anything that is contrary to the accepted dogma published.
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Our planet has feelings. These “feelings” require us to pay for our “bad” behaviour as the planet is now a victim. The middlepersons, “warmistas”, act as “honest” interpreters of our planets “feelings”, (they have doctorates in “rock” cuddling), and collect rent (taxes) from workers to pay off the planet. The planet does not see any of the funds as it cannot accept bribes for “bad” behavoir and has no outgoings. It donates the funds to people who manage its “feelings” and help it become “happier”.
The warmistas are now part of the “government” but aim to become ALL of the government.
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You mean they are Sharmans now?
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To OS @ 2.1.1:
What do you mean by “now?”
Of course, they’ve been paractising seventeenth century witchcraft for some years now. A student has not been able to enroll in a degree course to study climate without being a wholehearted believer in the propaganda. They haven’t a hope of understanding what is happening, to being able to be at all capable of
forecastingpredictingprojecting what will happen. The bones, once cast, take a lot of edgumakayshun to interpret …The variable star we call the sun is “Constant,” ergo everyone is still looking downward and inward, the way some of the satellites do. One reliable indicator of `Magic’ is whatever Mickey Mann, the Shaman In Chuef, is saying/supporting.
Very few look up and out for causes unless they are using the satellites which look up and out. And they are discovering heaps!
The science is settled! Oh no it’s NOT.
(PS: shaman from sham.)
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Man the builder, debater, and discoverer, from inventor of the wheel onwards, times when society is moving towards truth seeking and enlightenment, then alack, enter stage left, the shaman philosopher kings, divine emperors, tricksy gurus who want to remake and control society according to their own plan and advantage. Mann the destroyer,enemy of open society and truth to data, begone!
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Michael E. Mann
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by ~50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.
or
if I heat my maths with GHG (now named aerosols) I get paid for meaningless dribble based on unrelated equations with lots of missing minus signs that indicate I know zip about calculus.
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Rather too many people are conflating “drivel” with “dribble”. “Dribble” is what footballers do with the ball; it is also what can trickle out of the mouths of babes and people who spout DRIVEL!
(soz, but some things really annoy me)
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I was remarking on that to my husband only yesterday; it’s another odd usage that seems to have crept into the language lately.
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As well as using the wrong word, because it sounds something like the correct word, there is also the lazy pronunciation ever so prevalent today in our audio media. It’s lazy speech brought on by falling education standards.
A couple of bugbears of mine are:
‘Austray-ya’ for Australia, and ‘tempa-chure’ for temperature.
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And don’t foreget “Africa-r” and “Cannes” for Cairns – very common on their ABC. Some of the Australian born Aussies have a penchant for adding “R”s to words ending in “A” and have extreme trouble in pronouncing “R”s in the middle of words. And as for “loch”!
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In Mann’s case, probably a mix of the two, dribbling drivel.
dribbling as a child does.
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My favorite thing that annoys me is using the word “hone” when “home”, is the one to use.
“Hone” means to sharpen, such as a cutting tool, whereas “home” means to head for home, as is the wont of homing pigeons when transported far from home and released.
Enough, already!
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Yes its a football term, too much ball bouncing makes Mann a dribbler. EVERYTHING causes climate change except the BIG Yellow Ball.
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If the great lakes freeze over solidly enough so the water is colder from year to year then glaciation is on the cards if the pattern continues.
One must remember that in the last ice age New York was under a mile of ice. That can happen again, if CO2 was the global thermostat I’d advise turning it up, but it’s just not. We need to be prepared. In N America it might even be necessary to put nuke plants around the great lakes just to make sure they melt from year to year.
Cold is far more of a danger than warmth, given enough cold much of the northern hemisphere could become uninhabitable, we need a contingency for that. It’s not theoretical, it’s been like that before. It’s not global warming causing the cold… if we start to kid ourselves that it is, then we will not do the right thing for resilience. Yes we have thousands of years, but cold cycles are probably inevitable.
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Interesting points Bobl. The thing about the current situation in North America that strikes me is how abundant and resilient their power supply system must be. Every living space in all of those cities, Chicago for example, must have their heaters going at full capacity and this must mean that the electricity usage must be staggering. And it’s not just one city that’s getting cold.
Maybe they have a more resilient grid and supply system that we do? A lesson for us here?
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Most of our buildings are heated by natural gas. Cold weather does not stress the electrical grid as much as hot weather where A/C is virtually all electric.
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Just came across this . . . .
https://www.iceagenow.info/thousands-of-minnesotans-endured-the-coldest-night-in-a-generation-without-power/
[It is really annoying to have links that lead to fluff before the real story. Bother to put the real link in otherwise I will conclude that your sole purpose is to generate traffic that in this case is “ice age now”. You’ll be added to the sin bin.]ED
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I saw that. It’s horrifying.
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The SUVs must cause it, even though they become very hard to start at -30F. Hopefully it isn’t a Tesla SUV.
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Batteries hate the cold. Another reason EVs are a joke…..
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The EV push is another part of the evil socialism masquerading as environmentalism hoax political agenda.
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It is so transparently stupid the way that every single weather event, hot, cold, wet or dry is attributed to “Climate Change”. It has become nothing but a meaningless buzzword. Harsh winters come around every twenty or thirty years or so and always have. Maybe a new buzzword is needed, Climate doing what it always does doesn’t h have quite the same ring though.
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Its more they need to keep the sheeple from questioning The Big Lie….. once the sheeple get startled, they start thinking….cant have that….tsk….
Control comes from maintaining the mug punters’ ignorance. Just as the Guttenberg press opened up reading to the masses and caused a seismic shift in control of information, this is why they want to spin anything they cant control which would shatter the illusion, down to zero. This is also why the bogey man of “Cyber terrorism” is always pedalled, so people dont question being under surveillance by the State all the time.
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There is a drought happening all over Victoria, NSW, SA & Qld & NT.
Moisture in the air helps cool things.
Lack of moisture in the air leads to hotter air temperatures.
BOM is one again twisting the facts to suit it’s own ideological perspective.
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It’s also why they are desperately trying to censor the internet.
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Here’s the BoM yet again telling us that this January was the hottest on record.
Why are they persisting with this lie, when it’s obviously not true. What tortured algorithm are they using to arrive at this statistic?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/january-was-hottest-month-on-record/news-story/4c3470a939ebdfe25d535060d2f8dd6a
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ALL i can say is that our area ( NT’s, NSW) had a 5.5 celsius higher January than average.At least I know what caused it and it wasn’t man-made climate change.
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Really? Where are you, Northen Tablelands, NSW?
That’s a heck of a temperature increase.
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Armidale, NSW. Correct.
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Interesting.
Here, near Upper Moutere (at the northern end of South Island) despite it being very dry (no rain to speak of) and everyone yakking away about heat waves, it was actually cooler on average than last year’s January.
Year MeanT HiT LT
2018 19.4° 28.9° 9.6°
2019 17.9° 32.9° 4.9°
All temperatures are Celsius taken at 5 minute intervals.
So, although there were a couple of hot days (32.9° and 32.8°) it was actually cooler by 1.5°C than last year. (I haven’t been here long enough to have a meaningful average yet).
Growing degree days were also less for the 2019 January than the 2018 one. 277 versus 291 respectively, using a base of 10°C.
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The temperature increase being experienced by Australians this summer is directly related to the NH polar Vortex, exactly the same thing happened in 2013-14.
Its unlikely this is because of CO2, so does anyone know what is causing the jet stream to meander?
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Gordo what’s the pathway for that influence on the SH? How does it interact with phenomena like ENSO and IOD?
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All the oscillations work independently, yet there are these teleconnections and we are searching for correlations.
A meandering jet stream shouldn’t effect these oscillations, but there are possible exceptions, the North Atlantic Oscillation is behaving strangely.
The blocking high pressures in both hemispheres, a result of a meandering jet stream, should bring extreme weather to the mid latitudes.
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No solar link to North Atlantic Oscillation.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3
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Climate “Scientists” will be like the rabbit caught in the headlights on the railway rails when the express train goes through as the LIA really gets going…..
Zharkova suggested the current LIA could last 40-300 years. This is why the Chinese are developing plasma reactors, because they know its going to be for the long haul.
Additionally, if you live in the USA or UK close to the artic circle or even Chicago , get out soon. Florida will become very popular….
The Guardian is madly spinning Zharkovas warning away, so we know shes on the money….it seems all the globalist fan boys are freaking out about the LIA warning as its being exposed.
Funnily enough, the sun is pretty reliable.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/09/the-imminent-mini-ice-age-myth-is-back-and-its-still-wrong
“Is another grand solar minimum imminent?
Although it would have a relatively small impact on the climate, it’s still an interesting question to ask whether we’re headed for another quiet solar period. Zharkova thinks so. Her team created a model that tries to predict solar activity, and suggests another solar minimum will occur from 2020 to 2055. However, other solar scientists have criticized the model as being too simple, created based on just 35 years of data, and failing to accurately reproduce past solar activity.
Ilya Usoskin, head of the Oulu Cosmic Ray Station and Vice-Director of the ReSoLVE Center of Excellence in Research, published a critique of Zharkova’s solar model making those points. Most importantly, the model fails in reproducing past known solar activity because Zharkova’s team treats the sun as a simple, predictable system like a pendulum. In reality, the sun has more random and unpredictable (in scientific terms, “stochastic”) behavior:
For example, a perfect pendulum – if you saw a few cycles of the pendulum, you can predict its behavior. However, solar activity is known to be non-stationary process, which principally cannot be predicted (the prediction horizon for solar activity is known to be 10-15 years). Deterministic prediction cannot be made because of the essential stochastic component.
Just imagine a very turbulent flow of water in a river rapid, and you throw a small wooden stick into water and trace it. Then you do it second time and third time … each time the stick will end up in very different positions after the same time period. Its movement is unpredictable because of the turbulent stochastic component. This is exactly the situation with solar activity.
Lockwood agrees that we don’t yet have a proven predictive theory of solar behavior. He has published research examining the range of possible solar evolutions based on past periods when the Sun was in a similar state to today, but as he puts it, “that is the best that I think we can do at the present time!”
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OriginalSteve,
“.. a perfect pendulum – if you saw a few cycles of the pendulum, you can predict its behavior.”
Unless it’s a Double pendulum, or split pendulum for then the movement becomes more problematic — more tending towards chaos. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_pendulum
Now tell me how simple it is to predict the movement of this pendulum if you have just seen it, it’s already in motion, and you don’t know the start conditions. It is possible to analyze it’s movement and after much computer time arrive at the correct answer.
Now lets move this same pendulum to a platform floating on a stiff gel of variable elastic viscosity, and free to move in any direction. It’s now virtually impossible to calculate it’s movement. All we know is that from any initial condition it will come to rest.
So few linked variables resulting in so much chaotic movement.
So now consider all the parameterized variables in the climate models with all their inherent chaotic nature, variable mutual couplings and feedbacks. Then the sun goes a tiny bit cool — now what?
(sorry we don’t have an app for that!) 🙂
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Perhaps someone of knowledge can see the correlation between the CO2 and the cause of wavy polar vortexes in cold months.
This untrained eye can’t …
NASA: Eye-Popping View of CO2, Critical Step for Carbon-Cycle Science
OCO-2, launched in 2014, is NASA’s first satellite designed specifically to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide at regional scales.
Using observations from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) satellite, scientists developed a model of the behavior of carbon in the atmosphere from Sept. 1, 2014, to Aug. 31, 2015.
The 3-D visualization reveals in startling detail the complex patterns in which carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, decreases and moves around the globe over the course of September 2014 to September 2015.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/eye-popping-view-of-co2-critical-step-for-carbon-cycle-science
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Beware of models!
NASA avoids easy access to OCO-2 satellite data for CO₂
Why!?
because the actual data does not fit NASA’s narrative.
http://dcgazette.com/2015/raw-co2-satellite-data-environmentalist-nuts-dont-want-you-to-see/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/04/finally-visualized-oco2-satellite-data-showing-global-carbon-dioxide-concentrations/
Man’s influence pales against Nature’s CO₂ influences.
Which is why NASA and others prefer to filter out natural CO₂ emission and absorption.
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Well if it were not for the coal and nuclear power plants in the US large areas would now be on the verge of complete collapse with many deaths possibly into the millions. Let that be the lesson for all those renewables nut cases who want more reductions in our CO2 emissions forced upon us, including both major parties. Message for PM Morrison. Pull your finger out and scrap the RETs and all renewables subsidies. If you don’t then you are just as much to blame for any subsequent collapse in our economy as would be the ALP+Greens if and when they form government.
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Indeed, as is often the case once the uniformly high pressure cold air mass settles over a region the wind is too low to generate much power. The Midwest has been getting about 5% of its juice from wind, the East less than 1%. Thank God for coal, gas and nukes, many of which we are about to retire. Then we will get the super cold blackouts.
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Of course, in the 1970s the US National Academy of Sciences stated that these disturbances to the polar vortex were more common in a colder climate…
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I posted that particular picture of Hell on the internet in 2002, and a respondent at WUWT mentioned that he had used it for over 15 years.
I didn’t take it of course, but thought it was funny.
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“Despite this week’s record-challenging cold weather in parts of America, these low temperatures alone aren’t proof that our planet isn’t getting warmer. Research actually suggests that rising global temperature may actually be weakening the bands of powerful wind that hold the polar vortex in place. More research needs to be done before we can tell whether our changing climate will alter the behaviour of the polar vortex in the future.” BoM.
Research actually suggests that several studies indicate that more research needs to be done on suggestive language and evasive statements. This is consistent with a number of models which have indicated that there will be an augmentation of both frequency and intensity of surreptitious-to-blatant mendacity on the subject of climate.
Mendacity, Big Mama. Mendacity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaj3REcaW4g
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Another bad moment in science brought to you by……
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The video clip describes the vortex as 6000km (3800mile) across not 600mi as in Jo’s text. 600mi would not be described as continental scale.
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The video by Simon Clark is interesting in explaining the polar vortex, but he is a rabid warmist himself, who spends more time on his YouTube channel telling everybody that he has a PhD than saying anything actually useful. In his video on global warming, he unquestioningly accepts that CO2 is the driver of global warming, that the models prove it and that we have to transition to a renewables-based energy economy. For someone with a PhD, he sure misses some pretty basic scientific realities.
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In so many cases, a PHD is a magnificent skyscraper that forgot the importance of suitable foundations.
Not useful, not fit for purpose and does more harm than good as it all comes crashing down.
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I’ve decided my answer to every single stupid, moronic statement in support of global warming will be “global cooling”.
If the public, scientists and governments could run around in fear of an impending ice age back in the 60s, 70s and early 80s, then NOTHING that is happening now has ANY meaning WHATSOEVER.
Trying to debate these zombies on the science is just feeding their disease.
have a great weekend all 🙂
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My approach is different. The answer is not only already well known around the world it’s being applied by most nations with much enthusiasm by building many hundreds of new coal fired power stations and dozens of new nuclear ones. That’s the official and real world-wide response to the so called “climate change threat”. Now the question is why is Australia not following that “solution”? The answer is simple and can be taken directly from the famous quote “stupid is as stupid does”.
Message to PM Morrison. Pull your finger out and follow that solution currently being deployed on a mass scale and will continue as such for many decades to come.
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…because we are ruled by (ie slaves to) the chattering class.
And after pilfering your cash (for your own good, of course), their very favourite thing is to talk about how clever, virtuous and wise they are (as if they have even the faintest clue about any of those traits).
Any action, let alone any real or practical action, not only does not interest them but is entirely beyond their capabilities.
We have allowed an entire class of useless humans, that in previous ages would have been weeded out by the harsh realities of nature, to proliferate and entrench themselves at the very top of our society.
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Boy, from Europe to Canada to North America, this is going to hurt the ‘average’.
Who would have thought that 0.5C of average warming allegedly from a 50% increase in a largely invisible trace gas would cause a new ice age? I can see the headlines. Cars cause ice age. Stop CO2 and stop the cooling. Eat more meat. Grow more trees, but then again don’t.
Climate Science. You know it makes sense.
There will have to be an urgent jet set conference in the Maldives with 30,000 climate scientists and bankers to discuss this climate emergency. And how to spin the story.
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Really if more Greenhouse CO2 causes warming which causes cooling, we need to generate less CO2 so the world gets colder and therefore hotter.
Now that’s just muddled thinking. We now know that increased CO2 produces Climate Change which disturbs the arctic air and produces cooling which cancels Global Warming. Simple. Good work everyone.
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The stronger polar vortex in the S hemisphere is due to the alignment of perihelion with the seasons. In the S hemisphere, the Sun is closest during the summer and furthest away in the winter and is the opposite phase in the N hemisphere. The summer/winter difference in the incident solar power is an average of 20 W/m^2 more in the S then in the N. When this shifts in 11K years, the N hemisphere polar vortex destabilization events will likely have even larger impacts on the troposphere and the surface.
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The SH also has virtually no land around it. Hence no mountain ranges etc to disrupt vertical profile. Check long term trends. No AGW CO2 effects to be found down there. Its why the ozone hole exists, persists.
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Another difference between hemispheres is that in the N, the snow belt is mostly land, while in the S, it’s mostly water. This makes the seasonal difference in reflectivity larger in the N then in the S since snow doesn’t accumulate very well over water. This has the effect of attenuating the seasonal difference in the S owing to the alignment of perihelion with summer while in 11K years, it will amplify it when perihelion aligns with the N hemisphere summer.
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Meandering jet streams in both hemispheres, causing blocking high pressure, is a global cooling signal.
Does anyone know what caused the jet stream to meander?
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The best approach I have found to try and explain it is to study how interconnected our planet is and also to study El Niño. Such studies are far above the “pay grade” of the alarmists so they will never get it because they are stuck on attributing everything to one fictitious cause – man-made CO2 emissions.
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Explaining is the hard part, if we don’t have a full handle on it.
Here we see a snippet from Nature (Trouet et al 2018) who says its because of AGW, but I think its a global cooling.
‘North Atlantic and North Pacific tree-ring-based reconstructions of jet stream-related indices show a synchronous late twentieth century amplification of the meridional component and of variance that can generate more frequent mid-latitude blocking patterns and facilitate persistent periods of extreme weather, including wildfires.
‘Moreover, the synchronization of variance increases between the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins in the late twentieth century is unprecedented over the last 290 years …’
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@ elgordo, Solar downturn, low output, fewer spots, grand minimum approaching for next 30 years. Several physicists have warned of this already.
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Yes, but nobody knows for sure.
What we can say with some confidence, the weather will be similar to the 1950s thru to 1976.
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‘The problem for Mann and others is that meridional jets are associated with more clouds and cooling such as the LIA whereas the MWP had more zonal, poleward jets.
‘Prior to 2000 the AGW fraternity were blaming poleward, zonal jets on CO2 so this represents a complete turnaround.’
Stephen Wilde (Notalotofpeopleknowthat)
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The UN ideological global hijacking is falling apart.
When an institution swamped in settled politics relies on the manufactured definition of a non-problem to create a problem, its promoted ideology appears as fragile as it is precarious. Little wonder then their reliance upon an historical betrayal of the World, of both the poor and the prosperous by the Fourth Estate, accompanied by the noisey subversion of the Fifth Column, the neo-Marxists with their dismantling of education, nations, cultures, customs, and traditions.
Chaos, catastrophe and uncertainty. The food of the Satan.
On listening to Simon Clark, who still managed to slip in the required chant of, ‘a warming world’, I reflected on the data of the Greenland GISP2 ice core – temperature over the last 10ky (Alley RB, J.Quat. Sci. Rev. 19:2000)
We all know that from the Minoan Warming (peak: 3350 yrs ago), to the Roman Warming (peak: 2100 yrs ago), to the Medieval Warming (peak: 990 yrs ago) to the current warming (peak c. AD2000), each warm period peak was separated by a cool period or mini-ice age spanning approximately a millennium between warm peaks, and each warm peak approximately 25% LESS THAN the previous warm peak. The current warm peak when compared to the Minoan Warm Period borders on an ice age.
The UNFCCC defines “climate change” as the result of indirect and direct anthropogenic influence upon atmospheric composition. Other UN definitions include land usage. The UNFCCC “Fact” Sheet states: climate change is the result of human activity.
Round and round it goes, just like the Oozlum Bird.
The destination will inevitably be the same.
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Ah, but the Little Ice Age was actually caused by anthropogenic global cooling, don’t you know.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/genocide-of-native-americans-helped-cause-little-ice-age-scientists-20190201-p50v1l.html
I’m not quite sure how they reconcile that the Little Ice Age started in the early 1300’s and European settlement of North America didn’t start until about 300 years later, but it’s all our fault.
The other way to look at it, of course, is that the Native Americans caused the global warming that led to the Roman Warming.
I’m so confused…
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Thanks for the malagabay link Latus Dextro; now if only it could be made compulsory reading.
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We just need to take a sledgehammer of truth to the climate nonsense and smash it to bits ruthlessly without hesitation or remorse.
The only way to defeat Communism us to crush it.
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Two real scientists have a look at the data for the NH polar vortex since 1895 and find a decreasing trend for US cold waves.
And that trend is decreasing in the satellite record as well over the last 40 years.
Thanks to Dr Christy and Dr Spencer for their quick response, to help clarify the situation. Certainly data and evidence is a bummer for the silly, unscientific CAGW fanatics.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/01/if-the-polar-vortex-is-due-to-global-warming-why-are-u-s-cold-waves-decreasing/#comments
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[…] northern hemisphere is probably the most interesting weather event of recent times. See Jo Nova for a commentary. The polar vortices are the two strongest and largest “storms” on the planet. These continent […]
00
I am puzzled. There is almost no air in the stratosphere, hence almost no mass. But this monster cold wave consists of a huge mass of surface air that has traveled a long way. If the polar vortex is stratospheric, how does it move all this lower tropospheric air all this distance? It requires a vast amount of energy.
100
Momentum is key, which is mass times velocity. Even with relatively little mass if the velocity is huge then the impact is significant.
30
Its the disruptive nature of a warm stratosphere which splits the polar vortex in two and allows cold air to slide south. No extra energy needed.
30
David Wojick,
Here’s a good video from the UK’s Met Office What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MiUlTthSNA
Here is the JMA analysis of the upper layer showing the SSW effect on the temperature up there…
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html
The default shows the mid stratosphere at a pressure of 30hPa. Right above the graph is a click to pull-down menu of other parameters of stratosphere. 10hPa looks similar to the 30hPa but the timing is different. You can click down the (pull-down) menu to see difference methods to display the information.
Enjoy yourself.
40
What I would like to see is how the could like the SSW events to the shrinkage of the thermosphere as reported https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/
Stick that in their CO2 supposition.
20
oops typo…
the 2nd ‘like’ should be link.
20
Moderator,
Please help, my follow-on comment from 45minutes ago is still in moderation…
00
Yes.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/01/history-making-big-freeze-in-the-us/#comment-2099753
KK
10
That donkey Bill Nye thinks that US food will have to come from Canada in the future because of global warming.
GEEEZZZZ these dolts just make it up as they go along and like to have a two bob each way bet to cover their backsides.
Unbelievable nonsense, but the lefty MSM just lap it up.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/31/bill-nyes-latest-climate-warning-the-us-will-have-to-grow-its-food-in-canada/
151
Yeah but this is classic misinformation tactics – make people look in the opposite direction to reality ( CAGW ) , then let reality ( global cooling ) whallop them.
Its been a grand financial and social fleecing of the sheep-le….
80
Might as well get the science from a real donkey. He is a buff00n.
50
That someone like Bill Nye is called “the science guy” is quite instructive when trying to understand just how far the institution of Science (the scientific method) has fallen in this Age of Stupid.
111
You get high water marks from clean high water. When the water drains so you only have the shallow end of the academic lake , you get mud, dead fish and old bikes….
10
The US will need to fight the Brits for that food, due to the likely Brexit food shortages reported elsewhere…..
30
The countries that export to Britain won’t be wanting to lose their business! That goes for Germany and its cars and white goods too!
50
I’ve heard that Britain doesn’t need the EU but the EU desperately needs Britain.
41
Yep.
The balance of two way trade favours the Old Dart.
20
Indeed. And I hope we will be at the forefront, if we still have anything to offer.
10
I have doubts about this explanation being consistent with the current weather pattern. The surface temperature across the Arctic is essentially on the long term average:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png
From the video I am led to believe that the Arctic would be warmer under the scenario of the vortex splitting.
The entire land mass abutting the Arctic Ocean has temperature -30C or lower:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgx8RfZUDwTyS4-ke
This is essentially the same as the average temperature above the Arctic sea ice.
The entire northern hemisphere is experiencing cold weather.
Meanwhile in balmy Melbourne at 10am it is a little below my comfortable level at 18C but clear skies and no wind. A perfect autumn day (in the middle of summer). However moving inland a little it is much more typical summer weather with Broken Hill at 21C by 9am (8am EST). Northwest will nudge 50C today (dry up there)
90
AUDIO: 8min43sec: 1 Feb: 2GB: Alan Jones: ‘This is madness!’: Federal Energy Minister takes aim at the states
The federal Energy Minister has lashed his state counterparts who are persisting with the push to renewable energy.
The government is considering 10 new power-generating projects across the country to avoid a repeat of last week’s mass brownouts.
Extreme temperatures in Victoria last Friday saw more than 200,000 homes lose power, despite some of the state’s largest energy users shutting down operations.
Now the government wants to put more energy back into the National Electricity Market with 66 submissions for projects, including coal, gas and hydro.
Minister Angus Taylor tells Alan Jones state governments must stop demonising coal-fired power.
“If Hazelwood had of been there in Victoria last week, we wouldn’t have had 200,00 houses without power.
“We not only need to bring new power in but we also need to retain what we’ve got
“We’ve got to have balance in the system, this idea that you can go to 100 per cent renewables overnights – this is madness, it’s not on and we’re taking action!
“Any state government that goes for a target like this is being irresponsible, is trashing their electricity network.”
https://www.2gb.com/this-is-madness-federal-energy-minister-takes-aim-at-the-states/
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Trouble for Angus is that Frydenberg and Morrison aren’t on the same page.
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They aren’t reading the same book.
90
And yet the RET remains…
Don’t tell me. Show me.
70
The RET, providing the perverse financial incentives upon which the entire madness is founded.
The re-election of the Andrews government, with an increased majority, and his insufferably blase reaction to last week’s power outages which, paraphrasing him, is all the fault of the privatized ageing unreliable coal fired generators (which his government is addressing by the commissioning of endless renewable facilities in the years ahead) informs us that nobody in the Victorian electorate has an inkling of the sentiments expressed on this blog.
Apparently there is nobody in the responsible state ministries or the national AEMO advising the Andrews government how close Victoria is to going black and that if Basslink is down it’s a certainty on the next hot day. Zibelman was actually urging the closure of Hazelwood; it’s not possible to imagine any technical level at which Audrey and Lily are capable of discussing Victoria’s power management. I imagine all discussion now is about how steep a tariff rise the electricity customer ought to be presented with to stop the retailers going broke.
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Demand management has always been Audrey’s big thing and right now she probably has her lackeys coming up with cunning new plans to curtail demand even further, after all there are 2 aluminium smelters she hasn’t completely forced out of business yet. They must be high on her list.
She is one of the few shameful individuals I have heard refer to the act of slashing supply — also known as demand management — as a “power source”. Even the term “demand management” is a lie. No one voluntarily chooses to shut down their smelter for 3 hours, or stop their production line and totally stuff up a production run, or turn their air con up to 28 degrees on a stifling day. It’s not demand management at all — it is supply slashing, pure and simple. The demand is still there; the supply is not. Just another Green lie.
I wonder what Audrey was doing as the lights went out. Was she enjoying a bit of the Grange at a 4 course lunch Christine Nixon-style while Rome burned?
After the massive blackouts the other day I’ll bet she went home and slept the self-assured sleep of the arrogant know-it-all. As always, the blackout was someone or something else’s fault.
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I went to the Rockhampton round of the State tour for the 50% renewables by 2030 campaign.
When I mentioned that the State is generating so much from coal fired power, and without closing those coal fired plants, they would not get close to 50%, I was informed by the Panel Member that some of that coal fired power was being sent into NSW, and that they were not thinking of closing any of the coal fired plants, having the ‘youngest’ fleet in Australia.
When I further mentioned that the coal fired power was still being generated in Queensland, there was a dumb look, and then the moderator stepped in and said I had my question, and that they needed to move on.
Yesterday, Thursday 31st January:
Total power consumed in Queensland – an hourly average of 7250MW per hour.
Total power just generated from coal fired power alone in Queensland – an hourly average of 6420MW per hour.
88.55% of all power being consumed in Queensland was being generatedby coal fired power alone. True, some was transferred in NSW, but it’s still GENERATED in Queensland, with all those CO2 emissions inside the Queensland border.
50% renewables by
2030the never never. Tell ’em they’re dreamin’.Tony.
120
behind paywall:
31 Jan: SMH: ‘Suffering from our success’: Julie Bishop urges rethink of climate policy and government
Former foreign minister Julie Bishop will position herself as an advocate for bipartisan policy on climate change and a realist about the limits of government power in a keynote speech to overseas business leaders on Friday.
The former deputy Liberal leader will lament her party’s division on climate change and tell the Australian Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong she sees no prospect of the party finding a solution in the short-term, echoing comments by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/suffering-from-our-success-julie-bishop-urges-rethink-of-climate-policy-and-government-20190131-p50uu0.html
1 Feb: AFR: Julie Bishop calls for climate change consensus ahead of election
by Michael Smith
Hong Kong | Former deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop has revived calls for the Coalition to secure bipartisan support with Labor on energy policy and resolve divisions within the party on climate change ahead of the federal election as she urged voters not to “write us off”…
Ms Bishop singled out energy policy and climate change as being at the heart of political disruption in Australia, noting the National Energy Guarantee was the closest the Coalition had come to achieving consensus with Labor.
“Our party is divided on the issue of climate change and whether, or how we respond. Interestingly the opinion polls consistently show strong community support action on climate change,” she will say in the keynote address at an Australian Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong business lunch.
“I don’t see a solution to the current impasse but investors need regulatory certainty given the large and long-term investment needed for building energy generating capacity.”…
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/julie-bishop-calls-for-climate-change-consensus-ahead-of-election-20190201-h1aq11
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Interestingly the opinion polls consistently show strong community support action on climate change
Really? I guess it is only the Households that are consistently placing Climate Change last in lists of items that are of most concern, after Cost of Living, Jobs and Power Prices.
At very best I would suggest that ‘communities’ are open to the idea of action of climate change, but really want someone to fix their power bills first.
90
Agreed. Methinks the ex minister speaks complete bollocks….
10
The poor Yanks.
They used to get cold winter effects from cold winds blowing from the North.
Not any longer.
The poor souls are now belted by a thing called a “polar vortex”.
Oh, for those cold northerlys to come again.
90
‘Ms Bishop singled out energy policy and climate change as being at the heart of political disruption in Australia, noting the National Energy Guarantee was the closest the Coalition had come to achieving consensus with Labor.
“Our party is divided on the issue of climate change and whether, or how we respond. Interestingly the opinion polls consistently show strong community support action on climate change,” she will say in the keynote address at an Australian Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong business lunch.’
More big bro, or big mama, mendacity. Not truth to data principled policy action but connsensuss politicking. Another reason not to vote for a Liberal Party that’s anything but true to classical liberal free trade for the cits and by the cits.
160
There is only one rational response to any of this:
Nuclear Power (and lots of it).
Safe, clean, available, reliable and cheap (at least cheaper than ruinables).
Doesn’t matter if it’s going to get hotter, colder or stay roughly “as is”, Nuclear can handle it.
Sure, we’ll probably need a dozen or so HELE Coal stations while we’re ramping up, but Nuclear is where it’s at.
170
An interesting video Jo.
But it dates from February 2018.
So he is not referring to the current cold freeze in North America Northern Asia and Europe. He’s referring to what happened last Winter.
And he is very clear to state that there is no settled view in science as to why polar vortexes happen.
40
31 Jan: SkyNews: Rush-hour snow warning as UK temperatures hit seven-year low
The temperature in Braemar, Scotland, dipped to -14.4C (6.08F) and Britons have been told to expect “significant” snow.
England, Wales and Northern Ireland also had their coldest start of winter so far, with the temperature in Redesdale Camp, near Newcastle, dipping to -10.5C (13.1F).
Sennybridge in Wales’s Brecon Beacons recorded -9.3C (15.26F), while Katesbridge in Northern Ireland saw a low of -8.2C (17.24F).
Last year’s lowest temperature of winter was -14.2°C (6.44F) at Faversham on 28 February…
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-forecast-very-significant-snow-warning-as-britain-hits-winter-low-of-13-6c-11622194
-15.6C hasn’t been reached as yet:
31 Jan: UK Express: Snow UK pictures: Britain SUBMERGED under snow – latest weather maps and warnings
HEAVY snows showers has brought many parts of the country to a standstill and the big freeze is set to continue, with tonight being the coldest in nine years as temperatures plummet to -15.6C.
By Luke Hawker
The wintery conditions show no sign of stopping as a Met Office severe warning remains in place until tomorrow afternoon. Blizzard conditions caused serious travel disruption this evening which saw up to 12cm of snow fall in Cornwall in just a few hours. Southern England and Wales bared the full force of the arctic blast with 5cm recorded in Sennybridge, south Wales. 8cm in Spadeadam, Cumbria, and 7cm in Tulloch Bridge, Inverness-shire as temperatures plummeted…
Hundreds of motorists were left stranded in their cars on the A30 eastbound Cornwall during the evening rush hour which forced Highways England to issue a severe disruption warning…
Vehicles could be seen skidding and sliding as the roads were completely covered due to the ‘whiteout’…
Snow flurries will continue and move eastwards overnight and the Met office has confirmed it will be -15.6 C in Braemar, Scotland which is colder than last nights low of -14.5 in Aberdeen and lowest temperature since 2010…
The extreme temperatures has seen the River Dee in Aberdeenshire freeze over…
British Airways has also canceled some short-haul flights tomorrow due to adverse weather conditions…
Meanwhile hundreds of schools are expected to be closed…
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1080909/snow-latest-pictures-uk-weather-met-office-forecast-latest-weather-maps-travel-news
30
Funny that there is NO “wisdom” here from Phil?
10
31 Jan: Scottish Sun: APOCALYPSE SNOW Scotland weather forecast: Workers told to leave NOW as Britain faces blizzard
The British Army is on standby as seven Met Office weather warnings are issued for snow, ice and fog between now and Friday
By Brittany Vonow
Entire communities will be cut off and a phone signal blackout could blight Scotland today with the Met Office warning that ice, snow and fog could cause travel chaos and major disruption during rush hour.
There is a total of seven yellow weather warnings for snow, ice and fog across the UK over the next three days.
The Met Office has warned of a blizzard lasting 10 hours straight, from 5pm today until 3am tomorrow.
Even the warmest areas of Britain have struggled to get above 0C – with a freezing wind making the temperature feel even lower…
Mark Wilson, Met Office meteorologist said: “It’s been a very, very cold night. On Thursday night we could see similar temperatures in Scotland, but Northern Ireland, England and Wales probably won’t be quite as cold.
“Saturday night into Sunday could also be very cold.”…
Snowfall could lead to rural communities being cut off and power cuts could occur.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/3818236/scottish-weather-forecast-met-office-snow-leave-now/
1 Feb: Herald Scotland: Scotland’s cold snap freezes fountains and brings fears villages could be cut off by snow
by Jody Harrison
PIC: The Ross Fountain in Edinburgh’s West Princes Street Gardens froze over
Weather warnings have been issued for parts of Scotland while Hell has literally frozen over in the US as the frigid plunge affecting much of the northern hemisphere shows no signs of abating…
Meanwhile, a Michigan town which shares a name with Satan’s abode has suffered lows of –24°C, as residents battle to cope with the cold front brought about by the polar vortex affecting many mid-eastern states…
While Scotland and the rest of the the UK will continue to shiver for the next few days, the cold snap pales in comparison to the big freeze in the US.
Known as a polar vortex, the icy cone has seen temperatures plunge as low as –32°C in North Dakota with wind chills as low as –52°C in Minnesota.
The National Weather Service forecast temperatures in Chicago as low as –33°C, with wind chills to –46°C. Detroit’s outlook was for overnight lows around –26°C, with wind chills dropping to – 40°C…
Officials throughout the Mid West are taking extraordinary measures to protect the homeless and other vulnerable people from the bitter cold, including turning some city buses into mobile warming shelters in Chicago.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17401300.scotlands-cold-snap-freezes-fountains-and-brings-fears-villages-could-be-cut-off-by-snow/
40
The answer, my friend, is staring you in the face …
BBC, 31st Dec, 2008: Are cold winters a thing of the past?
“It must also be remembered that if global warming kicks in and becomes reality then snow and ice will be confined to the history books (and weather websites).”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire/content/articles/2008/11/27/warm_winters_feature.shtml
BBC, 31 Jan, 2019: Polar vortex: Whatever happened to global warming?
“The current bone-cracking cold in Chicago is “weather” not “climate”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47078054?ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter&ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social
What a difference a decade makes.
100
Surely this has been memory-holed by now? The propaganda machine is showing signs of wear and tear.
110
NOAA is pathetic.
“Winter storms don’t prove that global warming isn’t happening” tweeted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.’
50
The main academic institutions have been done over by filthy politics.
The Bible is about truth, yes, no, clarity. If the Devil had a profession, it would be politics…steering people to do unspeakable things…destruction of truth…compromise of standards…
20
Like this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-S7aoAzC0I
00
found these while searching for how wind energy is faring in UK at present:
31 Jan: HeraldScotland: Airport radar gives Glasgow a passport for windfarms
By Stephen Naysmith
Air passengers might worry about bird strikes, or even drones disrupting their flights, but now planes taking off and landing from Glasgow Airport have been made safer – from the threat of wind farms.
A high tech radar system installed at the airport is designed to ensure wind farms in its vicinity do not cause problems for pilots and air traffic controllers. While they might not appear an obvious concern, the height and movement of wind turbines can have a disruptive impact on aircraft.
They can be detected on traditional radar screens, mimicking real aircraft so readily that they have to be avoided by other planes, and can distract air traffic controllers. As a result, the airport says, wind farms can have a detrimental impact on the safety, efficiency and capacity of its local airspace.
But the airport’s new radar system, Terma SCANTER 4002, mitigates this effect from turbines, and as a result will allow the development of the 26 turbine Kype Muir Wind Farm to go ahead near Strathaven, Lanarkshire. By law the airport must be consulted on any wind farm development plans within a 50 kilometre radius.
Britain’s largest onshore windfarm, Whitelee, south of Glasgow is nearer to the airport, and while the airport has measures mitigate its impact, the equipment is limited and was installed nearly two decades ago.
However a spokesman said the more advanced radar system could eliminate concerns about turbines, effectively “removing” them from the air traffic control picture on an individual basis. He said the airport must be sure that any proposed wind farm development did not pose a risk to the nine million-plus passengers using the airport every year, but the new system should allow it to support both Kype Muir and other future proposals…
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17400718.airport-radar-gives-glasgow-a-passport-for-windfarms/
PIC: 30 Jan: CNN Turkey: Fire in the wind turbine in Hatay
Smoke started to rise in one of the wind turbines operating in Şenoba neighborhood, which is under the control of the district, to produce electricity.
Electricity cut off in the region
The fire swept the turbine in a short time due to the effect of the wind. Upon notice, the gendarmerie and fire brigade were dispatched to the scene. After the security measures taken by the authorities, the power cut in the region.
https://www.cnnturk.com/turkiye/hatayda-ruzgar-turbininde-yangin
40
Bob Tisdale looks at the 1916 to 1945 warming trend and finds a hopeless comparison between the clueless climate models and observations.
So why doesn’t the MSM ( or any media) call them out over this disparity? If more journalists could understand the data/ modeling problems then I’m sure some would have the nerve to start demanding answers.
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2019/01/31/global-mean-surface-temperature-early-20th-century-warming-period-models-versus-models-models-versus-data/#more-12164
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What a great article, if I need some cherry picking done, I’ll know where to go now. /sarc off
112
Cherry picking? All that is left are the pips.
30
Bob Tisdale is a good source for SST and this is the graph you need to show anyone half interested.
https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/figure1.png
12
Interesting that you would criticise Bob Peter, because Bob is one of the very few folks in the world who accurately predict El Niños. Unlike our own BOM who, every year, predict an El Niño only to have it turn into a La Nada and not to be outdone, insanely repeat the same prediction the next year.
70
Well said Graeme , I think BOM are not doing long range forecasts anymore because out of the last 18 they have managed to get one right .
31
Ad hominem is no refutation Fitz.
Is it too hard for you to identify your specific concerns? Your preference to avoid any genuine discussion of the topic is well established. This comment of yours is just more of the same.
Have you got your CO2 and AGW science ready to go yet?
42
In an article about model and data comparisons between 1915 and 1945, Bob used data from 1915-1945
To pfutz, this is “cherry picking”
10
From the post: Moroccan warm air
Morocco is one of the countries that is home to the Atlas Mountains with its highest peak at 4,167 metres. The mountains are between the Atlantic Ocean and the Sahara Desert, to the east and south. This desert is very large and, not unsurprisingly, is a direct recipient of direct solar energy. Look at a map and see where the Tropic of Cancer crosses the region.
It is odd that the claimed source of the air mentioned should have come from Morocco, quite a small place. Much of it might have come from the Sahara Desert air. Search for
‘ Saharan Air Layer ‘. Some of the air could have been from Northern Mexico and adjacent USA. There are other possibilities for the source of the air, or some of it.
However, air that goes up cools. The portion that gets to the Stratosphere can be -50°C. Above this lowest part of the Stratosphere the temperature will start to rise again, all the way to -15°C. It is thin, or not dense at these altitudes. It is very cold air that moves toward the polar region. The large area in the tropical zone generates a massive volume of warm rising air. Not all of it gets to a latitude that might be called polar. Much comes down in the Subtropical High Pressure Cells.
Still, much very cold air does “go polar” and then it descends. The adiabatic process reverses, and the air warms by compression. For reasons known to god and someone (but not me), at times the descending aspect is large and fast. It is then that there is “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” or SSW. This is not near the surface. It is at the level of the lower stratosphere.
40
unattributed:
VIDEO: 1 Feb: ABC: You might have been in cold weather, but you’ve probably never heard of frost quakes or seen sun dogs
The polar vortex is wreaking havoc in the United States, with the country facing record arctic temperatures, traffic accidents and the temporary closure of a number of businesses
And now residents in some parts of the country are hearing the earth explode and seeing three suns.
Here’s why these weird weather events are occurring.
The cold is causing the earth to explode
Frost quakes occur when underground water or snow that has settled into the earth suddenly freezes and expands, causing soil and rock to crack.
It’s a natural phenomenon, called a cryoseism, that usually only occurs at the coldest of temperatures — when there is a sudden drop in temperature causing the frozen water to expand.
That results in these booming or banging sounds known as “frost quakes”.
But you’ve probably never heard of them because they are rare even in freezing conditions.
Residents actually woke up because the ‘quakes’ were so loud.
Frost quakes have been reported across the US Midwest — including Ohio, Chicago and Pennsylvania…
Photo:The Sun rises over downtown Pittsburgh and its partially frozen Allegheny River
READ ON
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/polar-vortex-in-us-making-frost-quakes-sun-dogs/10769504
20
article posted was originally headlined on “Just In” page as –
“It’s so cold in the US it’s making the earth explode and three suns appear”
which is a more apt headline than what they changed it to.
—
finally, a celebration for the rains:
PICS/VIDEO: 1 Feb: ABC: Queensland graziers lap up deluge in state’s drought-ravaged west
ABC Western Qld By Kelly Butterworth and staff
At Bernfels Station, north-west of Winton in Queensland’s central-west, Ross and Tahnee Oakhill are revelling in 190mm of rain since Wednesday 9:00am to Friday 9:00am — a far cry from the 20mm which was forecast for their property.
Mr Oakhill said it was too wet to even work in the shed — a rare treat.
“It’s good beer drinking weather,” Mr Oakhill said…
Speaking to ABC North Queensland in Townsville this morning, Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Doug Fraser said the rain forecast was good news for those who were looking for more rain in the west and along the coast.
“The monsoon low is very slow-moving — it’s still hanging around the same sort of area around the southern Gulf country that it has been for the last week, and it looks like it’s going to be there well into next week,” he said…
Emergency authorities said there had been no calls for help received in the Mount Isa area, but the region’s emergency management coordinator Elliott Dunn said rain was set to intensify in the region over the coming days…
“At the moment I think everyone’s just happy to see it raining ***for once.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/queensland-rain-drought-stricken-properties-in-west/10769928
30
more to ABC’s liking. unattributed:
1 Feb: ABC: Sydney feels the heat during record-breaking January, as regional towns swelter
New South Wales has recorded its warmest January on record, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says, with the Sydney metropolitan area also experiencing one of its warmest Januarys ever despite “average” rainfall.
BOM statistics released today highlight what the bureau called an “exceptionally long and intense” heatwave in NSW, with one regional town experiencing 21 consecutive days with temperatures of more than 40 degrees Celsius.
BOM senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said there were many records set across many sites.
He highlighted Menindee, in the state’s west, which had four days over 47C in a row. Bourke, in the state’s north-west, had 21 days of 40C or more.
“And Sydney had one of the warmest average minimum temperatures on record,” Dr Watkins said.
Sydney finished the month with extreme weather that saw hot temperatures morph into dangerous wind gusts late in the day.
The temperature hit 37.9 degrees yesterday before dipping almost 15 degrees in 30 minutes as the famous “southerly buster” came in to cool the metropolitan region and much of the central coast…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/nsw-sydney-records-record-temperatures-for-january/10769858
10
except as an ad for Tesla, what’s the point, ABC?
1 Feb: ABC: Meet the man who was off the grid as Sydney’s eastern suburbs went dark
By Kevin Nguyen
When 45,000 homes and businesses in Sydney’s eastern suburbs were plunged into darkness yesterday, Carl Prins did not even notice his watch had buzzed.
At 11:30am, it let him know a recently purchased battery had isolated his Waverley house from the electricity grid, but everything was still working fine.
“I was upstairs working and I got a notification that my house was now being powered by the battery, it was pretty cool,” Mr Prins said.
In September 2017, the 38-year-old energy consultant — an alumnus of the same South African school as Elon Musk — spent $12,000 and five months on a waiting list to be one of the few hundred Australian owners of a Tesla Powerwall 2.
The 120 kilogram battery is charged by integrated solar panels during the day, storing excess energy for use through the night…
For an hour, Mr Prins’ house was the only one on his street with a running fridge…
(Prins’s neighbours) Both Leia and Ms Munro’s homes were outfitted with solar panels, but because both rely on the grid to circulate energy through the home, neither could keep the fans spinning as the temperature reached about 35 degrees Celsius…
Despite his little oasis and saving his family about $3,000 a year on their electricity bill, Mr Prins did not think Powerwalls were cost-efficient.
“Not unless you had a life support system running,” he joked…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/tesla-powerwall-keeps-sydney-home-running-during-blackout/10767924
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Carl Prins has an app called “Handled” which helps customers get the best energy deal – read about it here:
18 Jul 2018: Medium: Handled — the back story
A brief account of our journey to date
by Carl Prins
Growing up off-grid
I grew up in my Grandfather’s house in the 80s. Unlike most other homes in our suburb, this one was supposed to be able to be fully “off-grid”. Complete with solar panels, clever insulation and limited, efficient appliances I was living the future.
Truth be told, it did not work very well. Solar panels were incredibly inefficient at converting energy from the sun into usable electricity for the home and we very much relied on our connection to the grid…
https://medium.com/handled/handled-the-back-story-d79fb80ee4b8
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So why spend 12k on something that you acknowledge is not cost effective? That’s an expensive method of virtue signalling.
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1980 solar panels were not the same as 2019 solar panels. But I agree with Mr. Prins that living a progressive future is no fun.
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amazing pics:
1 Feb: Daily Mail: Pre-med student, 18, freezes to death in -51F wind chill – as another 11 people die across the Midwest and record-breaking cold snap heads for the East Coast
•At least 12 people have died as record-breaking low temperatures continue to wreak havoc across Midwest
•University of Iowa student, Gerald Belz, 18, was found outside an academic hall just before 3am Wednesday
•The National Weather Service said the wind chill around 3am in Iowa was negative 51F degrees
•Two people were found dead outside their homes in Detroit, Michigan overnight, while another five were killed earlier in the week in a snow storm that plagued the Midwest…
•The Midwest was still experiencing icy conditions, brutal winds and temperatures as low as -30F on Thursday
•The polar vortex pushed eastward and states including Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania were experiencing bitterly cold temperatures Thursday morning
•More than 2,000 flights were canceled and more than 3,500 delayed on Thursday
•Temperatures plunged as low as -42F in Minnesota and -31F in North Dakota on Wednesday
•The phenomenon caused surreal scenes throughout the region, including Lake Michigan freezing over, parts of Niagara Falls solidifying into frozen stillness and blocks of ice covering the river in downtown Chicago
By Valerie Edwards For Dailymail.com and Associated Press and Reuters
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6651663/At-12-people-died-including-Iowa-student-polar-vortex-wreaks-havoc-Midwest.html
NBC says 15 deaths blamed on the cold:
30 Jan: NBC New York: Long Johns to Short Sleeves: Rapid Thaw to Follow Polar Blast
For the nation’s midsection, relief was as close as the weekend
By Tammy Webber and Jeff Karoub
On Thursday, the system marched east, spreading arctic conditions over an area spanning from Buffalo to Brooklyn. In western New York, a storm that dumped up to 20 inches of snow gave way to subzero temperatures and face-stinging wind chills. In New York City, about 200 firefighters battling a blaze in a commercial building took turns getting warm on buses. The number of deaths that could be blamed on the cold climbed to at least 15…
Elsewhere, a bridge in the western Michigan community of Newaygo, 40 miles north of Grand Rapids was closed as the ice-jammed Muskegon River rose above flood stage. Officials in Buffalo, New York, watched for flooding on the Upper Niagara River because of ice…
Earlier in the day, several cities set new record lows. Rockford, Illinois, saw a record low temperature of minus 31, on Thursday. Cedar Rapids, Iowa, set a daily record low of minus 30 degrees…
Masters, from Weather Underground, said the polar vortex was “rotating up into Canada” and not expected to return in the next couple of weeks. If it does return in late February, “it won’t be as intense.”
Still, memories of the dangerous cold were bound to linger.
At least 144 people visited hospital emergency rooms for cold-related injuries over two days. Most of the injuries were hypothermia or frostbite, according to a spokesman for the Illinois Department of Public Health…
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/Polar-Blast-Envelops-Midwest-Strains-Aging-Infrastructure-Cold-Temperatures-Arctic-Snow-Ice–505103071.html
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31 Jan: CTV: Dizzying weather extremes a new fact of life for Canadians, experts say
by Holly McKenzie-Sutter, The Canadian Press
As Ottawa limps across the finish line of its snowiest January on record, cherry blossoms are blooming at the legislature in coastal Victoria, B.C.
Millions of Canadians were hiding out this week under extreme cold warnings stretching across the map, even as some East Coast cities enjoyed moderate temperatures.
According to experts, these co-existing extremes have been predicted for some time — and they’re likely here to stay.
“This is the kind of thing people have been predicting for years,” said Konrad Gajewski, a professor of geography and environment at the University of Ottawa.
“This kind of pattern of more alternation, more extremes, both in terms of warm and cold conditions is what we’re expecting for the future.”
Central Canada’s cold snap comes from the oscillating upper wind patterns of the jet stream, pushing the cold air down from the north with the polar vortex…
The exact role climate change plays in the pattern’s changes is an ongoing discussion in the scientific community, but a common belief says it’s the result of a warming Arctic.
“It’s thought that as the Arctic warms up because the ice is melting back, we’re going to have more of a situation where you have what we call ‘waviness’ in the polar vortex,” Gajewski said…
Atmospheric physics professor Kent Moore at the University of Toronto says the striking weather patterns show how the world’s climate system is intimately coupled, and how changes in the coldest and warmest regions can be felt in central Canadian cities.
As an example, Moore pointed to the theory that the waves in upper wind patterns are moving slower, with larger amplitudes as a possible result of warming in the Arctic.
“The largest changes in the climate are occurring in the Arctic and some would say, ‘Who cares? I live in mid-latitudes, why should I care about that stuff?”‘ Moore said.
“The Earth is kind of a small place and so things that happen in the Arctic don’t stay in the Arctic.”
David Atkinson, a climate professor at the University of Victoria, said the jet stream’s behaviour could also make the increasingly frequent, intense storms on the East Coast gain even more strength.
“If the air is kind of moving apart, it allows surface air to rise more easily,” Atkinson said. “That helps a storm to work, storms depend on rising air.”
Gajewski said the arrival of long-predicted weather patterns means it’s time for all levels of government to seriously plan for changes that are already hitting Canada in the form of sweltering heat waves in the summer and record cold in the winter.
This could mean more snow-clearing and flood response on the municipal level and global warming mitigation efforts across the board.
In Ottawa, Gajewski pointed to some ongoing local efforts like more bicycle lanes and efforts to plow some of them in the winter.
“A lot of it would just be common sense. It’s going to get hotter in the summers and we’re going to get perhaps more snow, more rain, more extreme conditions, more floods,” Gajewski said…
For cities like Ottawa, which just completed its twelfth straight day of round-the-clock plowing, people shouldn’t plan to retire their shovels any time soon.
“We’re going to have to shovel more often.”
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/dizzying-weather-extremes-a-new-fact-of-life-for-canadians-experts-say-1.4276514
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“in Ottawa, Gajewski pointed to some ongoing local efforts like more bicycle lanes and efforts to plow some of them in the winter.”
I wonder if he has ever tried to ride a bicycle on ice? I have. Don’t!
Even Texas in a normal winter can have 1″ of ice on the roads. The very idea that the people should get out on bicycles in the middle of winter behind a snow plough is insane. Typical Climate scientist.
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lovely pics:
31 Jan: Siberian Times: How do reindeer and Yakut horses cope with the harsh Siberian winter? They are ‘eternally tipsy’
By The Siberian Times reporter
Now Siberian scientists have discovered how they produce ethanol in winter in order not to freeze or to require hibernation.
In cold winter months, the concentration of ethanol in the blood of reindeers increases 1.3 times.
The same occurs in wild Yakut horses, a breed that remain outdoors in temperatures below -60C…
The process is not common to all deer species and is unique to reindeer, said Boris Kershengolts, chief researcher of the Institute for Biological Problems of Cryolithozone in Novosibirsk.
‘Endogenous ethanol, acetaldehyde and enzymes that metabolise them are one of the systems that ensure adaptation to cold of various sorts of living organisms that inhabit extreme climate environment,’ he said.
‘An increase in the level of acetaldehyde, which is an inhibitor of processes that involve oxygen, slows down metabolism, decreases heat transfer, and drops the body temperature by 7 to 8 degrees [centigrade] in reindeer and Yakut horses…
The research was highlighted in a recent article in Comparative and Ontogenic Biochemistry journal (LINK IN COMMENTS)…
https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/how-do-reindeer-and-yakut-horses-cope-with-the-harsh-siberian-winter-they-are-eternally-tipsy/
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Thank you Jo, for your laser accuracy.
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read all:
1 Feb: Reuters: Australia had hottest month on record in January -weather bureau
by Sonali Paul
Australia endured its hottest month on record in January, with sweltering conditions expected to persist through April, the country’s weather bureau said on Friday.
The heatwave, which saw temperatures above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) for several days straight in some areas, was mainly due to a high pressure system off the southeast coast that blocked cooler air from coming in, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
“For maximum temperatures, for minimum temperatures and for mean temperatures, it’s not only been our hottest January on record, it’s actually been our hottest month on record, and those records go back to 1910,” (Andrew Watkins, senior climatologist) said in a video on the bureau’s website.
“Odds are favouring that heat continuing at least through February into March and April,” he said…
The weather bureau said on Thursday that the west coast faces hot, dry weather over the next three months, which will dent the outlook for wheat production in the world’s fourth-largest exporter.
https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-weather/australia-had-hottest-month-on-record-in-january-weather-bureau-idUSL3N1ZW0JI
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Out shopping this morning mid north coast NSW and people were remarking on what a pleasant cool day it is.
Right now 22C feels like 22C at 3.50 pm.
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Something bizarre is happening.
BOM’s statement does not accord with my experience here in South Australia.
We have had some hot days even one which was very hot 40-41 degrees.
But we have not had a ‘heat wave’ of very hot days lasting a week or two.
The major characteristic is that the weather has been DRY.
And when I look at the BOM’s map it seems that it was hot & dry up North where the lateness of the monsoon has been the main factor.
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Yet early this morning in Geelong it’s a chilly 14C, although it feels colder than that in my neck of the woods.
I don’t know who the BoM are trying to convince. We’ve had a few days over 30C and the rest in the mid to low 20s.
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Funnily enough, in October 2018, NOAA
were predicting a mild winter for the US and they stated that:
“…the forecast only tilts modestly towards above normal temperatures. And while no areas of the country are favored to have below normal temperatures…”
(h/t to WUWT).
Isn’t it amazing, they cannot predict weather three months in advance but their climate models can tell us exactly what the weather will be in 2100!
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Here is the link:
Winter Outlook favors warmer temperatures for much of U.S.
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Sorry Angus, you had the link covered.
Cheers.
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“There’s some evidence that the jet stream, a meandering air current that flows over North America and Europe, is slowing and becoming wavier
as the planet warmsas the Sun goes quieter…. The jet stream interacts with the polar vortex, helping bring numbing temperatures further south.”From Weatheraction.com “Late January EXTREME cold blasts and massive snowfall from wild Jet Stream and displaced polar vortex flow both sides of Atlantic, ”
I know who is right here..PC obviously.
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Without linking to this old, daily, dubious NZ newspaper, today’s headline rhetorically screamed: “Summer weather: Can this heatwave officially be called a heatwave yet?” We all know the answer to that, yet experts now want us to ignore the science and go with our feelings…
“While it had been awfully hot in the main centres, [Weatherwatch forecaster] Duncan believed they wouldn’t have experienced an official heatwave this week. ‘But, in saying that, I don’t think humans measure things that way: it’s definitely been an abnormal weather event, and that’s why everyone has been calling it a heatwave.’
“MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said it was too early to say which locations might meet the criteria… But she echoed Duncan’s point that, regardless of the academic definition, many Kiwis would have felt a heatwave this week. ‘For most people, it will qualify’.” Bold mine. Forget the science, folks, just f e e e e l it.
As Jim Morrison once intoned long ago: This is the End…
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It’s what planets do. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn%27s_hexagon
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Who or What Is to Blame for Coldmageddon?
Joe Bastardi, Jan. 23, 2019
Nature.
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We built our models so that they would show Climate Change is responsible, then when we ran the models they show that Climate Change is responsible.
The endless circular argument goes faster than the Polar Vortex.
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I’m reminded of Stephen Wilde’s prediction years ago that we would see more meandering jet streams with a less active Sun.
Hubert Lamb, founder of the UK CRU at East Anglia, showed this would happen. He said in a normal warm world he saw 3 lobes in the jetstream but in a cold world that could be 5 or 6.
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Yes, Lamb did point it out but my work explains how and why.
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In the UK, lowest temperature for 7 years, as low as -15.4C. This would normally be excused as just really cold weather, but the pushers of man made Global Warming are insisting that like the US it is a direct result of Climate Change which is the cooling effect of Global Warming, the pushing up of average temperatures.
It is probably a good thing or the average temperature would go up even more and that would be a disaster.
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Contradictions can be accommodated under the mann-tra of cli-sci.
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1 Feb: The West Australian: Trump appoints climate sceptic to Environmental Protection Agency
by Miriam Fisher
US President Donald Trump has appointed a controversial climate change sceptic to the Environmental Protection Agency’s science advisory board.
News broke in the US yesterday that atmospheric science professor John Christy will make up part of the Science Advisory Board responsible for advising the EPA on the scientific and technical aspects of environmental problems.
The controversial scientist — who contributed a chapter entitled “The Global Warming Fiasco” to a 2002 book called Global Warming and Other Eco-Myths — is well-known for his vocal rejection of the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions…
https://thewest.com.au/news/world/trump-appoints-climate-sceptic-to-environmental-protection-agency-ng-b881091656z
31 Jan: CNBC: Reuters: U.S. EPA taps climate skeptic for science advisory panel
by Valerie Volcovici
Christy has downplayed the threat of climate change in congressional hearings and media appearances, arguing that scientific models overestimate warming, and that major steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions are not warranted…
Christy did not immediately return a call seeking comment…
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/reuters-america-u-s-epa-taps-climate-skeptic-for-science-advisory-panel.html
The Energy 202: EPA adds researcher who calls climate science ‘murky’ to key advisory board
Washington Post-8 minutes ago
John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, is perhaps the most prominent climate skeptic in all of academia.
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for the record (which FakeNewsMSM isn’t keen on), it was Andrew Wheeler who made the appointment:
31 Jan: The Hill: EPA puts climate change skeptic, conservative think tank scholar on science board
By Timothy Cama
Acting Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chief Andrew Wheeler has put eight new members on the agency’s main board of external science advisers.
The new members include an outspoken skeptic of climate change science…
“In a fair, open, and transparent fashion, EPA reviewed hundreds of qualified applicants nominated for this committee,” Wheeler said in a statement
The EPA noted Wheeler kept on the board everyone who was eligible to remain, including many named by the Obama administration.
The new members include John Christy, an atmospheric science professor at the University of Alabama – Huntsville who is an outspoken climate skeptic and often cited by pundits and politicians opposing climate policies…READ ON
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/427941-epa-puts-climate-skeptic-conservative-think-tank-scholar-on-science
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worth a reminder:
31 Jan: Bloomberg: When Does the Windy City Lose Wind Power? During a Polar Vortex
By Chris Martin; With assistance by Brian K Sullivan, and Naureen S Malik
Turbines often idled during deep freezes to prevent damage
Reduction in wind output boosts fuel burns as prices climb
The wind farms erected across the central U.S. over the past decade were supposed to provide cheap power during the blustery winter months. But they were never designed for cold like this…
“It’s just too cold for a lot of wind farms,” Adam Jordan, director of power analytics at Genscape Inc., said in an interview. “They can get damaged in weather like this.”…
With a deep freeze like this one, wind-farm operators may have to hit the brakes as ice builds up on blades and to prevent lubricated bearings from seizing up and stiffened fiberglass blades from cracking…
The situation highlights a weakness of renewable power, the fastest-growing part of the U.S. generation mix…
Wind generation on Wednesday afternoon was less than half its annual average in the Southwest Power Pool, the grid operator from North Dakota to Oklahoma…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-30/when-does-the-windy-city-lose-wind-power-during-a-polar-vortex
30 Jan: WaPo: The Energy 202: Polar vortex tests gas and electric systems in Midwest, Mid-Atlantic
By Dino Grandoni
***Ice can grind wind turbines to a halt. Snow can incapacitate solar panels…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2019/01/31/the-energy-202-polar-vortex-tests-gas-and-electric-systems-in-midwest-mid-atlantic/5c5211321b326b29c3778d29
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John Christy. 🙂 There will be gnashing of teeth from the wicked witch of the west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aopdD9Cu-So
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The situation is analogous to Ian Plimer being appointed to the Climate Council, an absurdity, demonstrating that such bodies are vehicles of anomic left politics masquerading as scientific inquiry.
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Just give them the authority to subpoena winds.
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[…] NOTE: Commenter Francis Lacan sollows this through on “colonizing Africa”. February 1, 2019 at 5:38 am Some clever scientists at University College London are suggesting that re-colonising Africa would […]
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Joe Bastardi goes into how he forecast the dreaded polar vortex coming based on various factors well ahead of any of the government weather agencies. This weeks Saturday Summary video is pure gold where he shows multiple scenarios with similar SSTs and pressure patterns in the Pacific from the past when the vortex descended and how the Madden Julian Oscillation was very similar in the same zones each time. I do my best, even when on the road and very busy to not miss his free videos. Just click the link and scroll down three screens to the free videos and click the one on the right. https://www.weatherbell.com/
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It is quite funny to see the simple stuff that NOAA is putting up on that intrusion of the polar vortex. Explaining how it happened trying to keep the climate change meme when just three weeks before the event their weather model was forecasting warmer than average temperatures for most of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and East for that period.
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Hi, Jo, and thanks for the credit in the head post.
I’ve criticised Jennifer Francis’s absurd speculation elsewhere on the basis that the jets were less wavy during the main part of the recent warming spell during which Arctic ice was decreasing so the simply do not fit her proposition.
And previously the AGW idea proposed more poleward less wavy jets as a result of human emissions so they have now gone into reverse.
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