JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
Jo appreciates your support to help her keep doing what she does. This blog is funded by donations. Thanks!
Follow Jo's Tweets To report "lost" comments or defamatory and offensive remarks, email the moderators at: support.jonova AT proton.me
Statistics
Please put some Southern hemisphere
global warming in a box, and send it
here … to Michigan, USA
,
I moved here in 1977 expecting the state
to get warmer every year, and it’s still cold.
Back in the 1970s, some “scientists” were
warning of global cooling, while others
were expecting global warming.
They were both wrong,
at least for Michigan.
Nothing has changed here.
I’m planning to sue someone,
perhaps for $250 million,
but I’d settle for $2,500,
because we did not get
the promised global warming,
which I considered good news !
251
Please put some Southern hemisphere global warming in a box,
The only stuff we have would be marked “BOM”
Even though its fake, its hard to send something mark “BOM” through the mail.
372
You’d be surprised, we get a few odd packages that are related to something going off…… 😉
141
Welcome to the club, Richard. The weather does as it pleases here too.
I could send you some of our more moderate weather but in transit there’s no telling what it might change into.
200
In the coming week east coast Australia will experience a cool air outbreak from the southern ocean. Some wags will scoff and say its only weather, but we all know its an early start to Autumn.
160
“Southern hemisphere global warming” . . . wtf? I mean, Where That, Fred? Fresh snow, freezing temps, way sub-zero wind chill on the South Island’s (NZ) ski fields today –
https://www.metservice.com/skifields/mt-hutt Both webcams presently buried under snow/ice, scroll through images for latest pic.
24 February (high summer at 45˚ South latitude), snow to 1,100 metres (3,500 ft), max temp -2˚C (28˚F), min -6˚C, -14˚C (7˚F) wind chill overnight, 28 cm snow past 24 hours (1 foot), more snow tomorrow. The above link allows you to select Mountains & Parks > National Parks > Skifields to open other webcams: Craigeburn 0˚C with 30 cm snow, Roundhill -2˚C with 20 cm snow, The Remarkables 0˚C with a dusting.
As I posted on my farce-spook [fb] page this morning (apart from keeping up with my international travelling nephews & nieces all around the planet, I like to freak out my CCCrap-believing friends with observed, recorded, scientific fact, aka cold hard reality) accompanied by a satellite pic, from 10 am this morning, of the Tasman Sea cold front stopping Oma in her tracks: “Unprecedented unsettled unscience! In the height of our Cyclone Season, a little southerly snowstorm totally annihilates now-ex-cyclone Oma, freezing the life out of it and shunting it back north up to New Caledonia and Vanuatu from whence it came. Warming: Zero, Colding: Won!” [sic of course]
And on the same day the Blizzard of February – the 3rd snowfall this month – buried the Southern Alps with snow –
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/383238/backing-for-nz-students-to-abandon-classes-over-climate-change
“The Māori Climate Commissioner says she has no qualms about encouraging schoolchildren to strike for action on climate change.” WTF? Kaka Kuku Krazy!
90
Meanwhile EG the Bureau of Misinformation is forecasting a very hot spell here in Mt Barker in SA for the next 7 days.
According to your sources, when will the cold outbreak arrive ?
31
Heres a link to the BOM forecast : http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/mount-barker.shtml
11
The high pressure should settle in the Tasman and ‘block’, which means Mt Barker will enjoy a week of heatwave.
30
But EG that implies that the East coast of Oz will also have hot northerly winds and so be hot as well
21
Think anticlockwise high – cool sou’east / east / nor’east winds for Sydney, mid-20s all week with not a 30˚ in sight, while South Ozistan cops the desert furnace nor’easters, helped along by Darwin’s monsoonal low (clockwise) lurking over NT, round and round… Do millennialis digitalis even know what clockwise / anticlockwise means?
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml
60
If you look at the synoptic for the week ahead, the cool onshore winds to Australia’s east coast is worth watching. Methinks its a regional cooling signal.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic/
During those recent heatwaves the low pressure troughs squeezed between the blocking highs, a clear indication that the subtropical ridge has lost its intensity.
21
Thanks EG for that link. It’s more understandable than the BOM.
Bookmarked that link also !
Bill
20
The cold in South Australia and Victoria etc is because we are shutting down coal fired power stations in these parts. New Zealand is going greener too. The ‘mann made climate’ thing is clearly doable… I have seen the white ..(snow)!
“Winter is coming: Unseasonal weather in sight for WA as temperatures tipped to dip”
“By staff writers
“January 21, 2019 — 1.22pm
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/winter-is-coming-unseasonal-weather-in-sight-for-wa-as-temperatures-tipped-to-dip-20190121-p50spt.html
21
I do hope that WA low comes East and gives us a drink in SA.
It’s been dry a long while.No rain since early December and even then not much !
30
Here in Gippsland there is generally 25% more rain (My subjective estimate) than melbourne to the west. Seemingly it is a rain corridor although it’s a concern that there is extensive conversion of native forest into single species plantations. Makes me wonder if that kind of farming for timber will alter general humidity of air flowing over and through those/these parts. That being said, pasture in the gippsland valley is usually green most of the year although some Gippsland farmers are allegedly not getting much rain at all. As for backyard farming, those few hot days really boosted tomatoe ripening and production. The bees did extra good this year in my region of Gippsland as flowers need consistent warm to hot temperatures to boost nectar flow. 28 degrees C is perfect. There have also been dry years here with back to back weeks of hot days and hot nights. If we were lucky enough to get hot days, the nights are generally cool. Only one or two kind of hot nights, but then again, the urban heat island effect is not apparent in the valley. More recently, the spring like days vastly outnumber the hot sunny days during the summer months for circa the last three years.
10
The number of hot nights has definitely declined sharply last three years. In Victoria generally. IMO.
10
So many opinions… Perhaps that tells us what I’ve been saying — the weather does as it pleases without regard for what we think.
30
Found this interesting story.
https://intercontinentalcry.org/social-capitalists-wall-streets-progressive-partners/
40
The very peculiar “fruit” called Climate CO2 Hypothesis came from no ordinary tree, from no ordinary physics/chemistry department, from no ordinary communications network, from no ordinary financing, from no ordinary exponents wearing the garb of environmentalism. The issue concerning Climate CO2 is no average game, no ordinary beta testing operation, no simple issue to just get laymen to vote on and that’s it. O no. None of that at all. One must go to the root which is certainly in motivation and certainly concerns some very unusual “science” and other unusual forces—that is, if one really needs to deal with this issue.
100
The world’s ocean is crucial to heating the planet. While land areas and the atmosphere absorb some sunlight, the majority of the Sun’s radiation is absorbed by the ocean. https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/climate.html
90
Jack at #13 below carries the ball/goes to the root quite well on what my #3 is about. Do check it out, good style and clarity and example by Jack!
10
I live in North Texas and we experience temps anywhere from 110*F to near 0*F during any year. I have been tracking the Dallas-Fort Worth metro (DFW) temps for about 6 months and about half the time the daily highs and lows have been below the daily average and the record temps range from 114*F to -5*F. But, I guess that an old hick farm boy from the Texas panhandle has a lot more grit than the average white collar suits in DC. Regards, US N vet, retired engineer, physicist, astronomer and petroleum geologist.
260
Not to worry, you could live in Malibu CA…https://www.iceagenow.info/rare-snowfall-in-malibu-ca/
10
When I visited a policeman friend in Plano in January 2002 we visited a ranch near Cardinal Springs and experienced temperatures varying from below freezing at night to the 70s at mid-day.
When he visited us last summer during our ‘heatwave’ he said that he found the temperature quite pleasant as the temperature at his home in Plano had been in the 80s before breakfast.
He particularly enjoyed sitting in the dog run sipping bourbon in the evening here.
10
Carrizo Springs
10
“Delingpole: The Five Best Arguments Against Climate Alarmism”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/02/23/delingpole-the-five-best-arguments-against-climate-alarmism/
102
Direct link
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/02/the-five-top-arguments-against-climate-alarmism/
71
Scott Adams wanted to get an alarmist to debate Tony Heller. I assume that, as normal, none took up the challenge. Why don’t they welcome the chance?
30
They would lose..straight away after the first sentences they uttered, with their total BS.
20
They can just act with arrogance and hubris in claiming their case is so self evident and support by “the science” that they dont lower themselves to debate the unbelievers. Its a convenient method of avoiding facts and logic.
20
Good overview of the indisputable evidence that CAGW is a hoax. Thanks. Green Energy is effectively a globalist terrorist plot against only certain countries, in particular the Western ones. Most other countries are ignoring the scare and building several hundreds of new coal fired power stations. Only time will tell if Australia wakes up soon enough to avoid a crash and burn scenario. Somehow I doubt it going by the two major parties.
132
Can we get AGW alarmism to be declared a terrorist condition? It has scammed and killed more people than any so called terror event.
60
YES! and while at it use RICO in the USA to arrest everyone involved in the scam!
30
If their intention is to ruin our economies, then where is the cash going to come from to find all these poor nations renewable energy?
10
Latest Pointman
https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2019/02/22/the-failed-coup-detat-in-america/
100
Professor Dershowitz [the famous conflicted dem] proclaimed it a coup. But us Trumpsters have been calling it that for ages now.
40
Here’s a strange para from the Pointman article I’ve never heard of, so I doubt many others have either:
100
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJy-Y_aXkAEYKWX.jpg
Pointy
10
inevitably truth surfaces: https://www.theepochtimes.com/sexual-torture-in-chinese-prisons-no-limits-to-the-perversion_2807811.html
50
A nation without morality is capable of anything.
The Communist China Regime is likely to be judged by history as being perhaps the very worst of them all.
In addition, religious persecution in Communist China will make the Roman’s Colosseum look like a Saturday afternoon’s Punch and Judy show; and the slaughter in Tienanmen Square a mere appetizer.
China’s War on Religion
What China Calls “Sinicization” is What Hitler Called “Nazification”
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-war-on-religion_2810299.html
30
Saudi Arabia beheaded a 7 year old kid!
11
Morning all,
I only discovered this 2014 book launch by Ian Plimer yesterday. Back then my limited internet data allowance meant I didn’t watch much YouTube material, but now I can. And this came as a very pleasant surprise.
In it he’s launching his (then) new book “Not for Greens”, which I’d also missed but have now ordered. Professor Plimer was at his best, the audio is clear and the picture good. And I liked his humour, as well as his succinct presentation of facts. And to use a teaspoon as as his basic prop appealed to me.
To say I’d ordered the book before I’d stopped laughing is only a slight exaggeration. I commend it to you, even if you’ve seen it before. Runs for about 30 minutes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lMfYjKauHbs
Cheers,
Dave B
110
Will do later. Brekky atm, then church. Got to pick some apples for people too, before the birds get the lot!
7C here again this morning, as yesterday. Temp. yesterday peaked at 32C.
82
Dave, that’s a great video..
And more straight forward that his book which I have on the shelf.
21
Glad you enjoyed it Bill.
His linking of the inputs to the production of the teaspoon to international trade was fascinating to me.
I don’t expect to get my copy of the book before Wednesday, but hope it will be a good reference.
Cheers,
Dave B
30
‘Following five consecutive years of drought, the Sea of Galilee has sunk to a 100-year low. A number of small islands have emerged at the water’s surface, and several holiday homes that were built on the shoreline now stand at least 100 metres from the boggy edge.’
Guardian
70
EG:
That stuffs the Walk on the Sea trips.
90
The Sea of Galilee is at 33 degrees north latitude. That is south of 37 degrees latitude; the average point of thermal balance at sea level over the norther hemisphere, where precipitation balances evaporation but the lake is elevated at 210m and that is sufficient to compensate for 4 degrees south of the thermal balance point. Further south, the Dead Sea is 410m below sea level and falling as inflow from higher latitudes has never matched evaporation since it separated from the Mediterranean.
The Sea of Galilee exists in a delicate balance between precipitation and evaporation. Human overuse of the water resource has turned the balance to net loss:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/overuse-not-climate-change-drying-up-sea-of-galilee-researchers/
Security of water supply across the globe is an ever present issue. I believe it is the #1 issue facing the human population. Australia should be undertaking projects to secure water resources for the population rather than investing endless resources in worse than useless wind generators.
150
‘Security of water supply across the globe is an ever present issue.’
A pipeline of fresh water from Lake Argyle to Bourke would eliminate drought in the MDB, shouldn’t cost more than $2.5 billion.
70
Engineer-in-Chief, C Y O’Connor, built the 500 kilometre Mundaring to Kalgoorlie pipeline in five years commencing 1898.
It pumped water over the Darling Escarpment some 390 metres with the use of steam power.
http://museum.wa.gov.au/explore/wa-goldfields/water-arid-land/building-pipeline
They were the days when nation builders had the measure of those who pursed their lips and tightened their sphincters at the thought of development.
120
Amazing.
40
Amazing.
10
A few million would get a respectable drop out of the Clarence.
10
Israel manages its water supply extremely well, so much so that it now exports water.
I have visited much of the water supply infrastructure in Israel.
Article: http://www.thetower.org/article/how-israel-is-solving-the-global-water-crisis/
Also, here is a short video of JNF Australia privately funded donations for water and related projects in Israel.
https://youtu.be/3LroWiOXcPo
51
Drip Irrigation is great and the Netafim brand is the best available.
The Chinese copied crap all leak in my experience as an organic farmer over 25 years.
31
I dug up a section of Netafim to fix a problem in the drip system outfall from our treatment plant (or the poo pit as my wife calls it)
Ended up it was just sitting there doing what its supposed to do. Nothing to fix. Does indeed seem to be good stuff.
00
According to the link, reverse osmosis is a key factor in Israel’s water security.
I wonder how the long term economics favour RO with its energy requirement versus moving water from one water rich location to a more arid location.
I also ponder what it would cost to construct water supply system from the Mediterranean to the Dead Sea. Then what flooding the Dead Sea would do for weather patterns in the region.
In Australia, feeding Lake Eyre with a significant ocean fed pipeline might do some interesting things to the weather in central Australia. There is probably enough historical data on Lake Eyre being flooded to assess its impact on local climate.
40
There is a proposal to run water from the Mediterranean to the Dead Sea via a hydroelectric plant with an average capacity of 160MW.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean%E2%80%93Dead_Sea_Canal
The problem is that the Dead Sea has a different composition to sea water in terms of mineral content and that proposal would likely alter the chemical composition of the Dead Sea. Whether that would be a real problem remains to be seen.
20
Rick a well dug canal would be better. Then each time the Lake floods the flood would flush out some of the huge amount of salt which is in Lake Eyre.
It would take a while but eventually Lake Eyre would be fresh after a big flood. A set of gate locks could be closed to prevent sea water ingress & voila the water far more useful for a long while !
11
EG there were floods and snow storms in the headwaters of the Jordan a month or so ago.
And I remember reading that the Sea of Gallilee water level was rising.
It’s still Winter in Israel & Lebanon, Syria & Jordan so it’s the rainy season.
So how come the Guardian is now reporting the level falling.
or are you just pointing out more dopiness by the Guardian again ?
41
Of course, anything from the Guardian is highly suspect.
You are right about Lake Eyre being fresh after a flood and would remain so if constantly topped up and stocked with fish.
With the hypothesis of a fresh water pipe from Lake Argyle to Bourke we can see its flat ground all the way.
https://www.ga.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0013/12640/GA11759.gif
10
I went off yesterday to learn something about door knocking for the upcoming election.
Australian Conservatives Senate candidate for Victoria, Kevin Bailey AM, explained the methods and reasons to a group, including myself.
Analysis has shown that a face to face contact is 4x more likely to change a person’s vote than a soft contact such as dropping a brochure in the letter box.
The aim is to talk to people who are philosophically sympathetic to the Aims of the Australian Conservatives. Australian Conservatives want to:
1. Reduce the Cost of Living
2. Improve National Security
3. Protect Australian Values (as we have known them up till now).
The Liberal Party used to believe in these things and they are still on the LIberal Party website but the parliamentary party has forgotten and abandoned their philospophy.
150
All parties claim those three Aims – motherhood with no meat. You would need to be considerably more specific to get my vote as I am unaware of any track record of the ACA.
Improve national security could be interpreted as dramatically increasing population through more bribes for babies as Costello introduced and ramping up immigration.
At least the PUP has a track record but I would never vote for the PUP because of Palmer’s support for an ETS after speaking with Gore.
One Nation would be high on my list if Malcolm Roberts was running again because I know his position on Global Warming. Although he is in another state my vote gets the party $3.
71
Yes Will they are motherhood statements and deliberately so. There is some meat to the principles and policies of the Australian Conservatives.
The Principles are:
1. Limited Government
2. Personal Responsibility
3. Free Enterprise
4. Stronger Families
5. Civil Society
https://www.conservatives.org.au/our_principles
Please take the time to go to the link and read more detail.
Clive Palmer has been doing a good job of exposing the problems with our parliament right now with his $50 million television advertising campaign. But he is not the answer because people do not trust him anymore.
71
Sorry Rick Will
10
If you start with motherhood you have lost interest immediately. Might be a little different in face to face but you only have 5 seconds before the door closes. Take 10 seconds to think of what words made a difference. For example:
1. It’s time.
2. Its the economy, stupid.
3. Make America great again.
4. Britain deserves better.
5. Stop the boats.
If you do get involved with door knocking I, for one, will be very interested in how you are received. I know one of the challenges these days is finding people at home and in a receptive mood.
“End the RET” would be a powerful slogan if people actually knew what it was costing the nation. It is a huge burden and its significance would soon be appreciated with the backlash once the subsidy farmers felt it was a real threat.
90
Yes, I like “End the RET”. Door knockers are going to need to have a thorough understanding to cope with the range of questions but the possibilities are great for discussion.
20
End the RET and “goodbye Paris”
20
A slogan would be good.
Something like; “Keep the Bastards Honest”, would describe the position since Australian Conservatives cannot form Government.
We are betrayed by both the Libs and Labor. Both have adopted socialist policies and damaging immigration policy.
I will report back on the door knocking, if I get that far. I doubt that I could explain the RET in the time available. The aim is to try to make the AC party recognisable.
The aim is to visit the 25% of voters who already think there is a problem with our government and not to engage with the rest (due to limited resources).
30
ON is the only party that has Direct Democracy or Citizen Initiated Referendum in their policy. If the Conservatives want a greater vote they should put that in their policy. They also should put in their policy legislation to parliamentarians and their supporters from lying and omission of consequences about their policies (eg Gillard lying about the Carbon Tax). In Switzerland the public can vote to disallow tax proposals and individuals legislation concerning tax have a sunset clause which requires the public to vote to continue or disallow it. Would it not be good if the public could vote to disallow the ALP proposals to remove dividend imputation (or introduce double taxation again) and increase tax on capital gains.
40
ON if you like but please consider AC for your second preference.
Kevin Bailey (AC candidate for Vic) says 80% of Queenslanders have actually met Pauline Hanson. That is because PH has made a huge effort over many years to get out and meet Queenslanders. That recognition pays dividends in the end.
Some of your proposals exist right now in some form. We have petitions etc. I am not sure how the others can be implemented. Let’s concentrate on the election happening in about 10 weeks.
10
Whereas the voters have politicians that routinely pass legislation and take executive privilege beyond the voters’ expressed desires, we demand the right to recall politicians (both legislative and executive) who fail to meet the electorate’s mandates. We further demand that both the constitution and city charters be amended to include the right of recall, and such right shall not be more stringently restricted than it is in other states that currently recognize the right in their respective bodies of law.
Suggested non negotionable policy statement any truly democratic party.
00
A recall election (also called a recall referendum or representative recall) is a procedure by which, voters can remove an elected official from office through a direct vote before that official’s term has ended. Recalls, which are initiated when sufficient voters sign a petition, have a history dating back to ancient Athenian democracy[1] and feature in several current constitutions. In indirect or representative democracy, people’s representatives are elected and these representatives rule for a specific period of time. However, where the facility to recall exists, should any representative come to be perceived as not properly discharging their responsibilities, then they can be called back with the written request of specific number or proportion of voters.
If this is not an acceptable and unconditional (NOT NEGOTIONABLE) plank of any parties policies then I do not believe that they are truly acting in the best interests of the people of Australia.
00
Has anyone seen these get up ads on honest government? Probably not because most of us don’t frequent the radical left hate sites .
Each ad is supposedly telling the truth from a government (greentard) perspective and they are the exact opposite to reality , for example renewables help an economy.
https://www.patreon.com/TheJuiceMedia?fbclid=IwAR2702iKGaTUFH0b1MGvrJBPZHjEuX_L-HCsS4z8Xs6ksfAZDZlX2awByHU
62
RR
As an example of a developing story
“US Prosecutor’s statement on Smollett – his “attacker” was his drug dealer”
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2019/02/us-prosecutors-statement-on-smollett-his-attacker-was-his-drug-dealer.html
And more if you look
Seems you could take this as exposing the story methodology of that “green” side
60
Juice Media at least allow comments on Youtube, I have made a few comments on some of the more egregious bullsh1t.
00
Renewables, Australia’s holy grail,
Will devastate the grid, then crash and fail.
The warmists cool down hot days in the past,
So future days seem warmer, they forecast.
Renewables in a cyclone outage panic,
Are useful like the pumps were on Titanic.
All those deprived of truthful news condemn,
The shameless bias from the M.S.M..
Of all the climate forcings, it’s the sun,
That takes the leading role on Earth, bar none.
160
Decent ideas/decent intent/tempering overcome
no matter all the so smooth mechanical loopers and loops
The early rounds of the battle for Earth may be grim
yet nature forces endure thick and thin
Gohomenow before the Sun goes down, yeah,
as the Sun keeps rising in the tao
30
Starting with unbiased view into the proposition: that man made production of CO2 added to the atmosphere will have a catastrophic effect (run away heating) on our environment.
Avoiding the emotional arguments, ~90%, of the proposition, the ‘science’ consists of data manipulation, broad assumption data modelling and university trained expert parroting. In the hard light of objectivity, reason, and reality there is very little a rational person could accept to accept such a proposition.
So the $64,000 Question(s). OK, $1,000,000,000,000 Questions.
Why create the CO2 boogeyman?
Why appeal to to the emotion of fear with threats of the Earths imminent demise?
Why isn’t the scientific world saying “Hang on a second here” (Although a hell of a lot are).
Why are the majority of government and professional institutions backing this ‘thing’.
Why is any person who questions this proposition, personally attack, publicly vilified or sack from their jobs.
WHY, WHY, WHY.
Answering these questions, would expose this .. ahhh.. affront to humanity, even more than addressing the “inverted burden of proof”, that it isn’t happening. You cannot prove a negative, you can, of course, point out the errors of the evidence of the proposition put forward.
ie “Gremlins live on Alpha Centory, disprove it”.
“Well no, you made the statement, the burden of proof is on you.”
“I have the evidence, but you cannot see it”
“OK, have a nice day, good-bye”
I always like to know why.
Just a few possible (probable?) answers to get the ball rolling.
These are base on who profits (Ciu bono).
1. Centralized World Government.
Quite a few very politically influential people have openly advocated a Centralised World Government with an end to sovereign nations.
Making a problem global requires global action, hence global rules with a global boss (dictator).
2. The Centralized Banking System.
CBS:”How much money do you want for this global catastrophe?”
Western Governments: “A trillion Dollars should do.”
CBS:”Make sure you keep your middle class working hard so you can pay the interest.”
WG :”OK”
–10 years later–
Western Governments:”We need 2 trillion dollars to rebuild crumbling infrastructure.”
CBS “What happen to the trillion we lent you 10 years ago?”
WG: “Oh that, it…it…it just sort of just disappeared.”
CBS:”OK, that’s over 3 trillion you owe us now, make sure to keep up the interest payments.”
CBS:”If you are struggling, we do have a resources for dept scheme…..”
WG: “Um .. um.. OK”
Note from The Centralized Banking System to the left and greens, “THANKS”.
3. Power and Energy Corporations.
No better client than a government, they have shit loads of money, just ask the tax payer.
Government handouts (schemes) to ‘invest’ into renewables research, save the poor corporations from having to delve into their profits to fund their research.
If you use renewables and they cannot meet demands, BIG PROFITS.
If renewables suddenly take off, BIG PROFITS.
If they don’t, we’ve got our fossil fuels in waiting, BIG PROFITS.
WIN-WIN-WIN
Note from the Power and Energy Corporations to the left and greens, “THANKS”.
More possible answers?
20
And of course there is the all important Philosophical aspect.
The Post-modernism is a very influential movement in today’s western world.
It is now the dominate aspect of Philosophical thought in all universities through out the western world.
It is anti reason and as such anti humanity.
They say the western world has had is run and failed, now it’s time for them to run the show.
It is the foundation/cornerstone/basis of the modern left socialist ideology.
Although most ‘lefties’ would not have the depth of thinking to know this (which is the very attribute of post-modernism!).
Here is a link to a pretty good explanation.
Post-Moderism explained
41
If ever anyone can understand post modernism, please let me know.
In 20 odd years of being exposed to the crap via an ex-wife,& a daughter, it was always beyond logic, sense or understanding.
31
Well done Bill in OZ.
You have described the very essence of Post Modernism.
Since they throw out Reason as a legitimate method of obtaining knowledge, it is beyond logic, sense or understanding.
As you said crap, and this is what the uni’s are punching out as philosophical/political students.
No thinking, just parroting.
Hence, probably why we’re in the state were in.
If you get time, check out this link.
Post-Modernism.
40
Jordan Peterson explains post modernism.
https://youtu.be/Cf2nqmQIfxc
He explains postmodernism and Cultural Marxism.
https://youtu.be/wLoG9zBvvLQ
A good explanation of Cultural Marxism.
https://youtu.be/Fn0P_wCB7T8
10
Hi Dave
I do admire Jordan’s intellect and courage.
He is careful and thoughtful with his words.
40
I came to see post modernism as a form of ANDROPHOBIA after that many years of attempted indoctrination.
But having been raised a Catholic an d successfully deprogrammed myself of that indoctrination, the post modernists attempt was chicken poo by comparison.
11
Hi Bill
There are men who are Post-modernist. (Maybe they do have ANDROPHOBIA!)
There are woman who blame all our problems on men.
A greens senator …um.. no I won’t say.
The two ideologies sort of line up, so there would be an attraction between the two.
Nothing personal but you are probably to old, to much experience/thinking, to be indoctrinated into PM.
I’d say they would be after the un-molded clay.
Sorry to hear about you Catholic indoctrination, hope you have recovered:-)
10
Starting with unbiased view into the proposition: that man made production of CO2 added to the atmosphere will have a catastrophic effect (run away heating) on our environment.
Avoiding the emotional arguments, ~90%, of the proposition, the ‘science’ consists of data manipulation, broad assumption data modelling and university trained expert parroting. In the hard light of objectivity, reason, and reality there is very little a rational person could accept to accept such a proposition.
So the $64,000 Question(s). OK, $1,000,000,000,000 Questions.
Why create the CO2 boogeyman?
Why appeal to to the emotion of fear with threats of the Earths imminent demise?
Why isn’t the scientific world saying “Hang on a second here” (Although a hell of a lot are).
Why are the majority of government and professional institutions backing this ‘thing’.
Why is any person who questions this proposition, personally attack, publicly vilified or sack from their jobs.
WHY, WHY, WHY.
Answering these questions, would expose this .. ahhh.. affront to humanity, even more than addressing the “inverted burden of proof”, that it isn’t happening. You cannot prove a negative, you can, of course, point out the errors of the evidence of the proposition put forward.
ie “Gremlins live on Alpha Centory, disprove it”.
“Well no, you made the statement, the burden of proof is on you.”
“I have the evidence, but you cannot see it”
“OK, have a nice day, good-bye”
I always like to know why.
Just a few possible (probable?) answers to get the ball rolling.
These are base on who profits (Ciu bono).
1. Centralized World Government.
Quite a few very politically influential people have openly advocated a Centralised World Government with an end to sovereign nations.
Making a problem global requires global action, hence global rules with a global boss (dictator).
2. The Centralized Banking System.
CBS:”How much money do you want for this global catastrophe?”
Western Governments: “A trillion Dollars should do.”
CBS:”Make sure you keep your middle class working hard so you can pay the interest.”
WG :”OK”
–10 years later–
Western Governments:”We need 2 trillion dollars to rebuild crumbling infrastructure.”
CBS “What happen to the trillion we lent you 10 years ago?”
WG: “Oh that, it…it…it just sort of just disappeared.”
CBS:”OK, that’s over 3 trillion you owe us now, make sure to keep up the interest payments.”
CBS:”If you are struggling, we do have a resources for dept scheme…..”
WG: “Um .. um.. OK”
Note from The Centralized Banking System to the left and greens, “THANKS”.
3. Power and Energy Corporations.
No better client than a government, they have loads of money, just ask the tax payer.
Government handouts (schemes) to ‘invest’ into renewables research, save the poor corporations from having to delve into their profits to fund their research.
If you use renewables and they cannot meet demands, BIG PROFITS.
If renewables suddenly take off, BIG PROFITS.
If they don’t, we’ve got our fossil fuels in waiting, BIG PROFITS.
WIN-WIN-WIN
Note from the Power and Energy Corporations to the left and greens, “THANKS”.
More possible answers?
50
Trendy – it will survive another two decades until current youth realise how they have been taken for ride and their children visibly rebel.
During the first two decades of the 21st century, Climate Change has been the most effective way of getting people to part voluntarily with their money. Those who have supported the movement have been favoured by governments and those resisting have been financially harmed by government. It is a perfect example of government largesse where those complying are rewarded and those resisting lose.
30
Very good RickWill.
You have described the methodology.
What is the Governments endgame?
20
That’s easy.
Answer: To stay in power.
Why?
Answer: So that they can enhance their tax-payer funded pensions and look after the business interests of their crony comrades.
Power, control, money.
30
Aye Sam
Power and Money are excellent motivates.
Wouldn’t you love to retire on their pension funds.
They are not doing a real good job of “To stay in power”. None are to popular at the moment.
I do often get the feeling, that they are not the power brokers, that they are but puppets to a higher cause.
A hidden agenda.
Maybe just my paranoia.
20
Heard on Sky News this morning someone utter these words,
“People who have solar panels on their rooves are
subsidising the people who don’t.”
I nearly fell off my chair laughing…
150
I do not think it is a matter for laughing. It is ill-informed and to be getting aired without being challenged is sad. Maybe it was challenged?
Rooftop solar does reduce the amount of money transferred from the disadvantaged households to solar and wind generators because STCs are lower cost per unit of power purchased than LGCs. However the system cost of intermittency is much higher than these direct transfer payments.
41
STC’s and LGC’s?
50
Something you should be aware of if you are buying electricity in Australia because you are paying for them and have been doing so for most of this century.
40
Lost in translation.
For the benefit of others;
https://www.awsolar.com.au/lgc-and-stc/
Large Scale generation Certificates and Small Scale reewable energy certificates. All part of the RET and subsidies paid by us to the owners of solar and wind generation units, for no benefit what so ever.
00
Well, if that’s true (but it isn’t) then thank you all you conspicuous solar paneled virtue signalers.
All the more reason for my sticking to the grid for all my electrons.
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/12/weekend-unthreaded-241/#comment-2088629
51
As an owner of solar panels can I just say – thank you suckers .
52
Not suckers by choice! We are forced to subsidise the solar owners.
40
That is a great comment for a believer site. It gets their hackles up to know a sceptic is taking advantage of the government Global Warming largesse particularly if they are not in a position to do so themselves.
10
I had an exchange on a blog recently where a guy honestly thought other peoples solar panels were subsidising him because the FIT was currently lower than what he paid, so clearly he was benefiting.
20
Sometime around UN-Paris 2015 by chance I subscribed to a newsletter from French folk called
The Association of Climate Realists.
contact@collectifdesclimatorealistes.fr (try search engine of that address if interested, ask to subscribe)
Here is a few quotes from latest news letter via a translator:
“One of the four questions of the big debate organized by the Government is about the energy transition.
It echoes the initial demands of the “Vests Jaunes” against the rise of the carbon tax.
Unfortunately, as is often the case with climate, energy and the environment, the terms of the question deliberately close the door to a rational exchange.
According to the Government, it would not be a question of debating the desirability of an energy transition, but only of how to make it acceptable to citizens, or even to
speed it up.
The energy transition is useless, expensive, and harmful to the environment.
It will weaken our country without any real benefit to the community.
It feeds amalgam, impoverishes the poorest and does not fulfill what it claims.
It is urgent to abandon it. May this report contribute to it.”
Much more in the newsletter about report:
Rémy Prud’homme is an economist, he has been Deputy Director of the Environment Directorate at the OECD, a visiting professor at MIT, and a consultant for many international organizations, in particular the World Bank; he is today an active member of the scientific committee of our association.
60
FWIW:
Thousands of yellow vest protesters take to the streets across France for a 15th weekend running as they try to re-invigorate supporters while trying to stamp out violence and anti-Semitism in the movement’s ranks
“Thousands of yellow vest protesters took to the streets across France on Saturday for a 15th straight weekend of demonstrations, trying to re-energize supporters while stamping down on the violence and anti-Semitism in the movement’s ranks.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6737693/Thousands-yellow-vest-protesters-streets-France-15th-weekend-running.html
60
Here is my latest scribble:
http://www.cfact.org/2019/02/23/will-president-trump-finally-confront-climate-alarmism/
Things could get very interesting. The Happer-bashing green stuff is already a treat. But it is hard to hold your ears and nose at the same time.
80
Just wait till they find that Tony Heller gets an invite!
80
22 Feb: BBC: Energy firm Solarplicity banned from taking on new customers
Energy supplier Solarplicity has been banned temporarily from taking on new customers due to its poor switching process and customer service.
Energy regulator Ofgem has also banned the company from increasing vulnerable customers’ direct debits.
Ofgem warned that the firm, which has 60,000 customers, could have its licence revoked if it did not improve…
The regulator said that the ban would remain in place for three months unless it saw significant improvements in the company’s customer service and switching process…
Gillian Guy, chief executive of Citizens Advice: “This provisional order highlights the continuing problem of struggling companies operating in the energy market. Ofgem must continue to use the powers at its disposal and take action against failing firms.”
Despite efforts to encourage the emergence of new energy firms to challenge the dominance of the “big six” companies, many of the smaller suppliers have struggled.
In the past year, a number of small energy suppliers have gone bust, including Economy Energy, Spark Energy, Extra Energy, Future Energy, National Gas and Power, Iresa Energy, Gen4U, One Select and Usio Energy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47329324
22 Feb: ClimateNewsNetwork: Climate change stokes mayhem in several ways
by Tim Radford
Stand by for long hot summers marked by riot and racial tension. As climate change stokes mayhem, global warming is likely to see a direct rise in human irritability…
https://climatenewsnetwork.net/climate-change-stokes-mayhem-in-several-ways/
20
Choose your future.
Joy to the world.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, and that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.
Hell on earth.
We (the collectivists) hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are not created equal, that we, the ruling class, decide what are your Rights, and that we, the ruling class, control your Life, Liberty, Property and your Happiness.
Well…
Give me land, lots of land and the starry skys above, don’t fence me in.
82
Agenda 21 policy’s agin cits havin’ lots of land, strictly environmental and surveyable high-rise living for the cits, (but not for their masters, Messrs Rockefeller, Soros et Big AL.)
41
There you go Red Thumb, https://beththeserf.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/55th-edition-serf-under_ground-journal/
In that 389 page Agenda 21 Master Plan for Utopia, Ch 7, urgent and decisive action to control human settlement.
60
Too right beththesurf
There are a lot of people with a distorted view of reality.
What is their utopian dream?
A world where Lions and Zebras sit around sipping lattes, discussing the bad old days.
A lovely fantasy.
But in reality, and boy does it bite, the results of a collectivist utopia would be more akin to George Orwell’s 1984.
50
jack, agree. Trouble is the leftists used Orwell’s 1984, not as a warning against cteating (dis) utopias, but as their control program user’s manual.
50
Yes beththesurf,
I sometimes think that the extreme collectivists consider 1984 a How-To.
But they are probably deluded.
Advocates of collectivism believe they will be the one’s running the show when their utopian dream is realized. Of course history has consistently demonstrated that there will be a dictator, and if they don’t tow the line they too will be lined up against the wall with all the other enemies of the state. Staring down the barrel of a rifle with a dazed expression of a deer caught the head lights of a car, their last confused thoughts will be “How did it come to this?”.
40
23 Feb: Daily Mail: Going vegan sent me off my trolley! Exhausted, irritable and don’t even start of the tummy troubles – SARAH VINE’s bid to join the health revolution left her VERY green around the gills
By Sarah Vine
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6736077/SARAH-VINE-Going-vegan-sent-trolley.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
22 Feb: FederalistPapers: Ocasio-Cortez Finally Explains Her Plan To Regulate Cow Farts
By Carmine Sabia
“In the deal, what we talk about, and it’s true, is that we need to take a look at factory farming, you know? Period. It’s wild,” she said.
“And so it’s not to say you get rid of agriculture, it’s not to say we’re gonna force everybody to go vegan or anything crazy like that,” Ocasio-Cortez said.
“But it’s to say, ‘Listen, we gotta address factory farming. Maybe we shouldn’t be eating a hamburger for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Like, let’s keep it real,’” she said…
https://thefederalistpapers.org/opinion/ocasio-cortez-finally-explains-plan-regulate-cow-farts
40
Operation of a single coal fired Unit, like say at Bayswater for instance, 660MW.
Feed in the coal, crush it to a fine powder, force it into the furnace, boil the water to steam, pressurise the steam, drive the steam across the three stage turbine, drive the generator, and, at maximum excitation, and you get ….. 660MW.
Have numerous solar power plants ….. say ….. THIRTY TWO of them in all, with a total Nameplate of 2241MW.
Wait for Summer, so the Sun is almost directly overhead, so you get the maximum insolation. Wait for the middle of the day when that Sun actually is directly overhead. Shoo away all the overcast and have not the slightest hint even of a passing cloud. The absolute best case scenario for solar power generation.
So, then all of the above, and the maximum generated power at this absolute best case scenario for solar plant power.
Around 1400MW.
That’s been pretty much the consistent maximum over the last couple of weeks, the highest it gets at any one point in time on the day.
1400MW out of a Nameplate of 2241MW at the absolute peak for the day, any day on the best days of the year. Capacity Factor at this best time, maximum ….. 62%.
Average output over the last 20 plus weeks of those 32 solar plants is at a daily Capacity Factor of 18.5%
This solar plant power from those 32 power plants has a Nameplate of 2241MW and over the last 20 weeks has delivered just under 1400GWH of total power to the grids.
Bayswater has a Nameplate of 2640MW, a little higher than ALL of those 32 solar plants, and Bayswater has delivered over those same 20 weeks 7000GWH.
FIVE TIMES THE POWER.
Tell me again how solar power will replace coal fired power.
Tony.
231
Thanks Tony !
This simple message needs to be repeated again & again throughout Australia.
So that even our swamp lobbied pollies understand.
Bill
101
Wind will fill in the gaps, because the wind is always blowing somwhere.
I actually had someone say that to me as a serious comment.
20
Anthropocene insect apocalypse update:
World’s largest bee not seen for 38 years rediscovered on remote Indonesian island
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-02-22/bee-giant-wallaces-rediscovered-indonesia/10830224
Meanwhile, on Al Gore’s home planet called Itsacon …
Where Have All the Critters Gone? Blame Climate Change
https://www.kqed.org/science/1932901/where-have-all-the-critters-gone-blame-climate-change
. . .
Insect collapse study ‘one of the most disturbing articles I have ever read,’ expert warns
https://thinkprogress.org/insect-collapse-study-disturbing-expert-warns-29ae68123fa8/
. . .
Insect population and species decline a ‘wake-up call’, scientists say
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-02-12/insect-species-in-decline-and-facing-extinction/10804094
~ ~ ~
Lord Howe tree lobster officially back from dead as island pushes ahead with poison program
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2017-10-06/extinct-lord-howe-stick-insect-back-from-dead/8984902
Al Gore was correct update:
23.02.2019: Biblical Prophecy in Action? Egypt Braces for Imminent Plague of Locusts
“A locust outbreak of biblical proportions is spreading from Sudan and Eritrea along both sides of Red Sea to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has warned.”
https://sputniknews.com/world/201902231072677757-biblical-locust-plague-egypt/
> > Turns out emitting an invisible trace gas (CO2) is a truly lousy way of causing insects to become extinct. < <
90
They haven’t identified all the insects yet so how can they know they are becoming more extinct.
41
Poorer households switching to solar faster than the rich
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/poorer-households-switching-to-solar-faster-than-the-rich-20190222-p50zqr.html
Behind paywall so I’ll paste it below – hope that’s OK,
and of course I am not endorsing anything in the article
As urban myths go, the one about solar panels being a luxury enjoyed mostly by the wealthy with poorer households left out has endured well beyond reality.
In a research first, the Victoria Energy Policy Centre analysed electricity bills of 10,051 households provided by CHOICE, a fifth with solar power, in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Researchers then used socio-economic data and house prices from Domain.com.au to profile the owners.
Solar panels are not just mainstream, they even turn up more often on lower and middle-income homes that you might expect.
Solar panels are not just mainstream, they even turn up more often on lower and middle-income homes that you might expect.CREDIT:NICK MOIR
Contrary to public perceptions, solar panel uptake is proportionally more common in roofs of those with lower- to middle socio-economic standing, the study – commissioned by Solar Citizens – found.
“People are reaching for ways to get control over their energy costs and for millions of low- and middle-income households, solar is the best way to do that,” Solar Citizens’s national director, Joseph Scales, said.
In fact, the wealthiest decile had the lowest proportional solar uptake, and the poorest had the highest.
Victoria Energy Policy Centre director Bruce Mountain said a range of reasons may be behind the relative lack of interest in solar among the well-heeled. These include potential for heritage restrictions, heavily treed yards shading panels, and a lower responsiveness to rising prices.
Buying panels is “not at the top of their list”, Professor Mountain said. By contrast, soaring power bills have made solar power increasingly attractive for less wealthy families particularly as solar cell prices plunge.
“For most people if you have a north-facing roof in any of our cities, solar will pay for itself in five years or less,” he said.
The study comes as NSW political parties offer a range of policies to spur solar and batteries before next month’s election, and follows the Andrews Labor government’s promise to help 650,000 households to get solar panels.
Rooftop solar jumped 43 per cent to a record last year, while the leap in new utility-scale solar farms meant the overall capacity tripled to about 3775 megawatts.
Among the other findings of the study was that average households with solar power bought 9 per cent less electricity from the grid, but consumed about a quarter more power than those without panels.
Often that variance was because homes with solar energy – particularly in a belt of about 10 kilometres from the city centres – were also households most likely to draw the biggest benefit from solar.
“In terms of uptake, it’s actually pleasingly rational,” Professor Mountain said. “The people who are economically the people to be getting the greatest benefit from it, appear to be installing it in the greatest numbers.”
Not usually this large: Daniel Epstein installed a 17kW solar system on his house in Warrandyte, on Melbourne’s northern edge.
Not usually this large: Daniel Epstein installed a 17kW solar system on his house in Warrandyte, on Melbourne’s northern edge.CREDIT:ARSINEH HOUSPIAN
The study also found solar households exporting power back to the grid were in effect subsidising the energy bills of those without panels.
“Around one third of households in all states sell their electricity to their retailers at a rate that is lower than it would cost their retailers to buy that electricity in the spot markets,” the report found. “Retailers profit from this to the extent that they do not pass this on to other customers in lower prices.”
The benefits of solar, though, were being blunted by high fixed charges, particularly in Victoria, compared with variable energy charges.
“Governments should clamp down on standing charges,” Professor Mountain said.
The report noted that the fixed component of retail residential offers in Australia “are higher than in any other country as far as we know”.
The Victoria Energy Policy Centre plans to extend the study after being given access to a much larger data set of Victorians’ energy bills by the state government.
51
How many rented homes have solar power?
Fixed charges should be higher to better cover the cost of transmission and distribution, which is rising fast because of the dispersed nature and low capacity factor of intermittent generators.
60
Yes probably, but I personally wish they were lower, because my major cost is the $1 a day fixed charge.
Tell me about it.
40
Most countries have a much more compact electricity supply system than we do.
Ours is strung out basically as a narrow band down the east coast, with a few widely spaced country towns, serving a relatively very small population per unit of infrastructure.
91
Same of course applies to hi-speed trains etc.
61
Most countries have the network fee incorporated into the usage charge.
eg Germany as we know is very expensive but their Grid charges are 7.27 ct/kWh (24.7% of total)
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/what-german-households-pay-power
Is it not fairer that a luxury household that uses 100 kWh a day pays more network fee than a poor single person who limits their use to 1 kWh ?
There is much less incentive to lower usage – maybe that is the electric companies plan to maximise profits.
10
You believe $1/day is too much to pay for energy security? You are a tough consumer.
10
Just saying if customers used an average of 50 kWh/day the network cost would be more than if the average was 1 kWh.
So the network charge should depend on usage, not be fixed and the most expensive in the world.
10
So go off-line if you think it a ripoff. It’s a standing cost that would not meet the real costs so you are being subsidised by others.
10
George, the average use argument is a red herring. You’re talking about overall grid demand/capacity, but a grid must be maintained for maximum foreseeable demand, not average demand or you end up with 200,000 customers in the dark as per 25/1/19 in Victoria.
The supply charge is there to cover the cost of maintaining the grid. This becomes especially relevant where a household goes nominally “off-grid” except for when the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine in which case that household expects to be able to draw 20kWh in a day just when it suits them. This implies that all the generating and transmission infrastructure must be kept in place just for their one day of use per week at 20kWh or whatever.
Using your user-pays system the bulk of regular users have to pay extra to maintain the grid for those freeloaders who choose to use it intermittently, drawing a very low amount of power on average, but maximum power at any random moment.
50
High fixed charges encourage people to go off grid and does not encourage people to economise their use, both of which put extra cost on the network per person.
20
That doesn’t nullify what I said above. In any case people go off grid because their TOTAL power cost is getting out of control, not because of any fixed cost phobia. It is the VARIABLE cost that is causing most of the grief unless someone is a negligible user of power in which case my 1st comment above applies.
If they want power from the grid AT ALL, then they should pay for the privilege like everyone else. That variable cost should be minimised by dumping renewables altogether, then everyone can afford grid power once more.
40
Saying it’s totally fair for a 1kWh/day user to pay the same as a 50kWh user is like saying the total grid cost to cater for users that average 1 kWh/day is the same as the cost for average 50 kWh users.
I just don’t think it would be.
12
It is the peak demand that matters. If you pull 10kW (toaster, water jug, water heater and cooktop running simultaneously) for 6 minutes you would require more system capacity than a consumer pulling 5kW over 10 hours.
One of the emerging issues is the need for the distribution network to handle local generation. My 3kW grid connected system can pump out a solid 2.7kW for three hours a day under clear skies and cool temperature. My average demand is 170W, mostly taken in the evenings, and my average summer time generation is 450W but lumped into sunlight hours. Most days I am a net exporter so I get paid for power sent out less the service fee. At this stage it is an acceptable cost to provide a source of income.
Both distribution and transmission are becoming more expensive to handle the low capacity factors of distributed and intermittent generation. Each new subsidy farm being hooked up requires connections and new subdivisions are designed for total lunchtime generation rather than total load at evening peak.
If you have the choice it makes economic sense to take advantage of the system and accept the government largesse bestowed on intermittent power generators.
30
True, but if 1000 consumers draw 10kW for 1 minute/day and another 1000 draw 5kW for 10 hours, then almost certainly the latter would require a larger capacity grid because the first group would almost certainly would be not be using the 10kW at the same time.
11
1000 x 10kW = 10MW while 1000 X 5kW = 5MW yet you claim the latter would require a larger grid capacity. Can you not see the glaring fallacy in your own argument? In your world 10MW is less than 5MW. At any given moment that first group can all switch on together. The duration is irrelevant.
“the first group almost certainly would be not be using the 10kW at the same time.” There you go again George. You cannot say that. You’re assuming that usage averages out when reality tells us the exact opposite. How many folks do you know who use power for 1 minute per day? Your argument is a fiction.
You are not allowing for instantaneous peak load. Everyone gets hot at the same time or cold at the same time; everyone wants to cook dinner at the same time. If they didn’t, the demand curve would be dead flat which it is not. People will want to use power when they need it, not when it suits some grid built to supply power based on averages.
If your average use per day is 1kWh and that’s all you are willing to pay a supply charge for pro rata, fine, then your use should be capped at 1kWh for any given 24 hour period after which your power is shut off until the commencement of the next 24 hour period. Fair’s fair.
10
No way do they build a grid to cater for all the millions of connected users turning on their maximum power draw at the same time.
No way would all houses be even occupied at the same time.
My example was just sample imaginary numbers to demonstrate the general point.
11
Designing distribution network tariffs that are fair for different consumer groups
“Disadvantage of fixed network charge is it does not signal long term costs and so does little to encourage
energy efficiency and system flexibility
In Europe Network tariffs typically have three main components, used either alone or in combination:
fixed (€/point of delivery);
capacity (€/kW); and
volume (€/kWh).
Fixed component tariffs are commonly known as standing service charges, and are independent of consumers’ maximum demand and consumption volume.
Capacity component tariffs charge consumers for the availability of a maximum load, and they can be ex ante, i.e. based on the maximum contractual capacity, or ex post, i.e. based on consumers’ actual peak demand over a period, or a mix of both.
Volume component tariffs charge consumers for the total usage of electricity from the grid.
The advantages and disadvantages of each tariff component and each charging basis are discussed in CEER (2017) and are summarised in Table 1”
https://www.beuc.eu/publications/beuc-x-2018-099_designing_distribution_network_tariffs_that_are_fair_for_different_consumer_groups.pdf
11
I would think $1 or even $2 a day for energy security is fine, as long as it delivered; to a service level; with penalties.
00
As well as climate science that we all know about, perhaps there is also climate economics.
Climate economics is where you get subsidies to install solar panels, sell the electricity produced when you don’t need it (which is when the sun shines), buy it back at an 80% higher price when you need it ( which is most of the time), pay a supply charge whether you need it or not, and you are still subsidising the non solar users.
40
NO NOT at all. The non solar customers are subsidising the solar ones
Do not tell lies mate !
51
Map had his tongue firmly in cheek. Somewhere above is the claim that solar panel owners are indeed subsidising the poor.
Alarmist are never embarrassed when caught with outrageous lies.
40
I’ve assumed a sarc/ there Maptram.
31
Further to my Comment 19 above, which did the sums for solar plant power.
Rooftop solar power, same conditions, best case Summer scenario.
Maximum power on any given day is around 4200MW.
Capacity Factor at the BEST time of day, maximum insolation is around 52%.
Over the last 20 weeks rooftop solar power has generated its power at a Capacity Factor of 14.6%, over what is around the best time of the year for solar power.
Rooftop solar power has a Nameplate that is 3.15 times HIGHER than Bayswater.
Over those same 20 weeks Bayswater has generated 1.72 times the power of ALL the rooftop solar power in Australia.
Add up the cost of all that rooftop solar power to consumers who own the panels, and (just at today’s lower cost) it comes in at close to $11 Billion (not counting the installation subsidy) ….. for 58% of the generated power of Bayswater.
Shhhhh! Don’t let anyone do the Maths.
Tony.
131
I’ve lost count of the number of cold calls I have received regarding the fitting of solar panels.
As soon as they hear I am renting, they can’t hang up fast enough.
I don’t even ‘play’ with them any more. No fun. They have no idea what I’m talking about.
Tony.
40
If you look at the study its not poorer households, they have no clue whats going on in those households income wise. They have taken real estate values and marvelled at solar panels appearing on what they deem to be low income households due to the value of the homes.
For a couple of decades I lived in a modest fibro cottage in the outer eastern burbs of Melbourne. We stayed there for a variety of reasons. At the time my income would have placed us in the top 10% in Australia. We now live in a nice regional location with an overall value that would put us toward the bottom deciles of the study but we are hardly struggling. On their criteria we would be considered poor household. Its just rubbish. They are using data sources that will support the story they want to tell.
40
behind paywall:
22 Feb: UK Telegraph: Jack Rear: First they came for our wood burners, now our gas hobs… what will be banned next?
PIC: The dog can stay, but everything else in your kitchen probably needs to go
It’s been a terrible few weeks for the beleaguered middle class home. First environment secretary Michael Gove came for our wood-burning stoves, and now the government wants to get rid of our gas hobs too.
So, what’s going to be next on the chopping block? Are we heading for a future where boiling the kettle more than once per day is banned for fear of excessive electricity consumption? Will the government enforce a law against lighting barbecues after 8pm, to crack down on outdoor heaters?
Here we take a speculative look at what could be next in the firing line. Enjoy ’em while you can…
See Telegraph Recommended’s look at the best wood burning stoves (LINK) that will survive Michael Gove’s new laws/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/first-came-wood-burners-now-gas-hobs-will-banned-next/
90
Highly recommend 3 articles:
How to Choose Better Immigrants
https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2011/1/how-to-choose-better-immigrants/
Energy and the Hydrogen Economy
https://afdc.energy.gov/files/pdfs/hyd_economy_bossel_eliasson.pdf
The 5 Myths of the Hydrogen Fueled Vehicle
http://www.dalefield.com/slspartners/hydrogen_fm.html
All are Relevant, Useful, and Necessary.
40
The last line confirms my reasoning not to go for the Victorian Government $50 giveaway for accessing the energy comparison website.
My thinking at the time was that it would require me to provide details like bank account etc, to get the payment, and that my details would be used for other purposes. This seems to be one of the other purposes.
I don’t see how they can justify the claim that the study also found that solar households are subsidising the energy bill of those with out panels. “Around one third of households in all states sell their electricity to their retailers at a rate that is lower than it would cost their retailers to buy that electricity in the spot markets,” the report found. Retailers profit from this to the extent that they do not pass this on to other customers in lower prices.”
This means the solar households are increasing the profits of the retail companies, not subsidising the energy bills of those without solar.
70
Your reasoning is wrong. You could answer questions with whatever you like. Many consumers would prefer that the State owned and operated the electricity supply meaning they would have all that information anyhow as they did about 30 years ago.
The only good reason you would not take the $50 is if you could not be bothered spending your time going through the questions. It took more than 5 minutes.
I got a cheque in the mail about a week after doing the on-line questionnaire so I had to provide an address probably as proof I lived in the state. My current retailer has the best deal so no interest in the offers to change retailer that came at the end of the questions.
10
I never went along with this scheme because who pays your gift of ill gotten gains , the taxpayer or the pensioner ? Or maybe it’s a gift from unicorns .
I already know I’m on the cheapest plan of any company .
10
23 Feb: GWPF Newsletter: Top German MP Warns Of ‘Dictatorship Of Climate Law’
Climate War Splits German Government As Climate Law Is Postponed Indefinitely
You know we have overcome the dictatorship of the proletariat here in East Germany, and now we are facing a dictatorship of the climate law. I do not consider this law to be compatible with a market economy. –Andreas Lämmel, CDU member of the German Bundestag, Deutschlandfunk, 23 February 2019…READ ON
https://mailchi.mp/b8398999451f/top-german-mp-warns-of-dictatorship-of-climate-law?e=f4e33fdd1e
90
Sounds good.
Public dissent.
60
O/t Visited Rom today. He had visitors from Horsham and was cheerful. Hopefully home soon.
120
Good news. Wish him a full recovery.
30
“hundreds” is all you see in the videos online:
22 Feb: AP: Hundreds of students march in Paris for climate action
PARIS – Hundreds of French students have taken to the streets of Paris to call for more action to fight climate change, one day after a similar march in Brussels.
Young protesters marched in a joyful atmosphere chanting slogans about global warming like “1, 2, 3 degrees, it’s a crime against humanity.”…
22 Feb: CNBC: EU’s Juncker proposes billions of spending on climate change after a 16-year-old’s speech
•Every fourth euro spent within the EU budget will go towards climate mitigation actions between 2021 and 2027, Jean-Claude Juncker says.
•His comments came after 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg spoke at the plenary session of the European Economic and Social Committee.
by Anmar Frangoul
The EU budget is usually one percent of its economic output, or 1 trillion euros ($1.13 trillion) across seven years, according to Reuters…
“We know that most politicians don’t want to talk to us,” she said. “Good. We don’t want to talk to them either,” she added. “We want them to talk to the scientists instead. Listen to them, because we are just repeating what they are saying, and have been saying, for decades.”…
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/juncker-proposes-climate-change-spending-after-greta-thunberg-speech.html
22 Feb: Climate campaign star Greta Thunberg ‘will meet Macron’ after Paris march
By Chris Harris & Cristina Abellan Matamoros
Swedish climate campaign star Greta Thunberg was set to meet French President Emmanuel Macron after joining ***thousands of people at a demonstration in Paris…
TWEET: Greta Thunberg:
Paris! ***They say between 5000-8000 students marching here today. And tens of thousands around the world…
23 Feb 2019
https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/22/climate-campaigner-greta-thunberg-takes-leading-role-at-paris-youth-march
Greta Thunberg: climate change superstar
Financial Times – 22 Feb 2019
40
TWEET: Stefan Rahmstorf: Save the date! #Fridays4Future #FridaysForFuture @GretaThunberg
POSTER
22 Feb 2019
1 reply only:
Dr. Beat Brunner, Born in Year 320 ppm #CO2. Passionate about 100% #renewable #energy and #water, #climate. Scientist, #opensource engineer, entrepreneur, Dr ès sc. tech. @EPFL.
And please note that adults are welcome too! Just walk along, support them, and let the young people take central stage! They are our heros, but they need more than our help! They need our action against climate change!
https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1098993068936777728
TWEET: Potsdam Institute:
Climate change and cold winter extremes: to honor her important work on this topic, PIK scientist Marlene Kretschmer received the Köppen Award. Congratulations! More info on her research here: LINK
20 Feb 2019
NO COMMENTS
https://twitter.com/PIK_Climate/status/1098183713396002816
20
Pukeworthy stuff!
60
***funny – no mention of 12 and 13 metre waves! this BoM spokesman sure has a lot to say!
24 Feb: ABC: South-east Queensland beaches closed as ex-Tropical Cyclone Oma departs
Updated 37 minutes ago
All Gold Coast beaches and most of those on the Sunshine Coast remain off limits today as the effects of ex-Tropical Cyclone Oma continue to be felt.
A severe weather warning is in place from Fraser Island to the New South Wales border for dangerous surf and abnormally high tides caused by the now sub-tropical low.
Surf Life Saving Queensland said while all Gold Coast beaches were closed, Sunshine Coast beaches would be opened on a case-by-case basis…
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Michael Knepp said waves of ***five metres were recorded along the coast.
“We still have a severe weather warning for abnormally high tides and dangerous surf but once we go through the next few days we will start to see those conditions start to ease as ex-Tropical Cyclone Oma moves further away from the coast.”
“Probably the worst conditions were over the last few days but we’re starting to see those conditions ease so [it’s] probably not the best beach-going weather today unless you’re maybe a really experienced surfer.
“I have heard that some surfers have said they’ve seen the best waves in 30 years upon some of the beaches.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-24/south-east-queensland-beaches-closed-as-ex-cyclone-oma-departs/10844006
only the pros get to enjoy the waves:
VIDEO: 3min37sec: 23 Feb: CoastalWatch: Kirra Pumps As Cyclone Oma Swell Continues To Build
STANDOUT SESSIONS
Vision captured Friday, February 22, 2019
We can’t remember this many all-time tube rides in one edit. Kirra with Parko, Tai Graham, Mick Fanning, Jack Freestone, Hazza twins, Midget Magic, Mitch Parko and many more core lords getting mega slotted. ALSO WATCH: Cyclone Oma Lights Up Noosa – Nature’s Own Perfect Wave Pool (LINK)
https://www.coastalwatch.com/videos/25372/kirra-pumps-as-cyclone-oma-swell-continues-to-build
VIDEO: 3min46sec: 21 Feb: CoastalWatch: Cyclone Oma Awoke Kirra From Her Slumber Thursday
The famous point break provided some solid barrels Thursday for the likes of Mick Fanning, Parko, Jack Freestone, Stace Galbraith, Margo, the Harrington twins, Brent Dorrington, Soli Bailey and more as Cyclone Oma begins to show her might and power.
https://www.coastalwatch.com/videos/25367/cyclone-oma-awoke-kirra-from-her-slumber-thursday
iflynoosa youtube channel has a number of drone videos, if you want to see more. note the general public also get to enjoy the waves. however, these videos don’t capture the thousands that were reportedly enjoying themselves in the Noosa surf:
Youtube: 9min50sec: Cyclone Oma Barreling Boiling Pot Noosa Going OFF Thurs 21-Feb-2019
posted by iflynoosa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftvWSEKUfAE
20
Wave heights:
Mooloolaba : https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/monitoring/waves-sites/mooloolaba
Max height 13.3m on 22 Feb at approx 16:00
Stradbroke : https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/monitoring/waves-sites/gold-coast
Max height 9.0 m on 23 Feb at approx 13:00
00
Yes but those wave heights weren’t on the coast.
The Mooloolaba buoy recording was out at sea in 32m deep water, not on the beach.
The Stradbroke buoy recording was in 17m of water, not on the beach.
00
Ghibli Levante and beowulf –
thanks for the replies.
00
Beo,
I don’t know why you would assume these were inshore wave heights. Accurate measurements can only be obtained from the wave buoys and these are always located well offshore, presumably as an aid to shipping, though we surfers find them extremely useful in searching out the best waves. Just because it read 13 meters well offshore doesn’t mean you’ll get waves that size on the beach. Wave size is very much affected by sea floor topography, tides, and coastline shape not to mention wind direction and swell period.
The biggest waves I can recall being recorded by a wave buoy is just over 20 meters at Cape Sorell in Tasmania.
In Australia, the largest surfable waves are found where the Continental Shelf is close to shore. Shipstern Bluff in Tasmania and one or two others there plus a few others like Cow Bommie off Gracetown in WA and Port Campbell in Victoria.
Hawaii is renowned for large rideable surf as it has no continental shelf to impede incoming waves. The Cortes Bank, 100 miles off the Californian coast is another example.
The best example however is Nazare in Portugal where a deep underwater canyon extending well out to sea allows North Atlantic swells to reach the shore unimpeded. Try google or YouTube for hours of entertainment.
00
Used to surf Noosa in the early 80s when 60 people out in the water was a crowd – now there’s 6,000! – then I headed west to Margaret River, WA. Cowaramup Lefts was a favourite when the sou’wester blew out everything else: we would see a massive A-frame bommie out on the horizon and wonder… then they invented jetskis!
Some “surfers have said they’ve seen the best waves in 30 years” – I’m surprised their ABC let that go to print as it means it’s all happened before (in the previous climate cycle). Scored some epic sessions at Tea Tree and Granite during cyclone swells ’81 – ’83, the hard part was choosing the 5′ 10″ thruster or 9′ 6″ log… toot-toot!
00
Crowds are a problem everywhere now I’m afraid, the good old days are long gone.
As for the best in thirty years, I don’t know why the ABC wouldn’t put it into print: everybody knows what happened at the Superbank, as it’s known, and it’s nothing to do with climate cycles.
In the late 1960’s the Tweed Rivermouth was extended seawards to give boats safer access in and out of the river. This resulted in basically stopping the flow of sand northward and all beaches suffered at times severe sand loss over the years. Occasionally the planets would align and you would get some epic waves but generally wave quality and consistency declined dramatically. I understand that Kirra didn’t break for many years then when it did it was nothing like it used to be.
In the early 1990’s a jetty was constructed south of the Tweed River and sand was pumped around the river and another discharge point was established just north of the river. It took many years to figure our when and how much to pump. At times you needed a compass and a cut lunch to make the journey across the sand to the water at Rainbow Bay!
Once the timing and volume of sand pumped for the best results was established over the following years, wave quality returned: even beaches up around Surfers Paradise saw an increase in sand volume. It was a lot of trial and error but eventually they got there, it’s not perfect but long time locals reckon it’s close to the good old days.
So nobody is admitting anything that wasn’t known before: it’s just a case of human intervention stuffing up one of the best sand bottom point setups on the planet and human intervention fixing it. It just took many years, climate cycles had nothing to do with it.
I’ve surfed Noosa a few times and had some good waves but it’s a long drive from my place! I prefer the Victorian coastline a couple of hours drive east and west of Melbourne: the water is colder but I reckon the waves are overall a lot better!!!
10
***”a” 9m wave which has a graph, but no graphs found as yet for claims of 12, 13m waves whether at Mooloolaba or Stradbroke. “an” 89kn/h wind gust:
23 Feb: My Gold Coast: Cyclone Oma carves 2-3m cliffs on Gold Coast beaches
by Jaydan Duck
PIC: March 2018
The Mayor said there had only been “a few erosion issues”, with large waves carving 2-3 metre cliffs out of the sand at Main Beach, Broadbeach, and Burleigh.
Council has three million tonnes of sand in stockpile and could begin replenishing the shoreline as early as Tuesday.
Mayor Tate said the City’s famous beaches would be returned to their usual glory “within 48 hours” of works starting.
“The swell impacting our coast is more powerful than Cyclone Debbie but our beaches are holding up well given the $30 million investment in protection measures in the last four years,” Mayor Tate said.
“In 2017, three million cubic metres of sand was pumped up on to the beaches in a special project involving an offshore dredging vessel.
“That project cost $13.9 million and is paying dividends today with significant volumes of sand on our beaches.”…
For now, however, all of the city’s 34 beaches remain closed, with swimmers warned they face being forcibly removed by police and fined if they enter the water…
TWEET: Gold Coast Weather & News Together – 21 hours ago
CYCLONE Oma has whipped up huge seas on the Gold Coast. Monster 12-13m waves were recorded offshore of North Stradbroke Island on Friday, while waves reached a maximum height of 9m off the Gold Coast on Saturday. Check out some of these epic photos submitted by our followers! Feel free to send in your images and we’ll add them to our album. PICS
Monster 12-13 metre waves – larger than those whipped up by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald – were recorded offshore of North Stradbroke Island on Friday.
Maximum wave heights of 8 metres were recorded off the Gold Coast on Friday, which charged toward the shore at 20km/h.
The Gold Coast’s wave monitoring buoy recorded its largest wave of the event on Saturday, however, with ***a 9m wave detected around midday.
***An 89kn/h wind gust was recorded at the Gold Coast Seaway on Friday…
http://www.mygc.com.au/beaches-holding-up-well-despite-savage-seas-mayor/
20
Sam Harris on climate change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPL9Ubew-6Y
09
Sam Harris and Scott Adams are sparring partners of old. Did Sam take up Scott’s challenge to debate Tony Heller?
30
Sam Harris only seems to have one proponent of a particular point of view on, although there are some notable exceptions. So I don’t think Tony Heller will get a slot.
13
Tony Heller has way too much knowledge and facts about all aspects of the climate change scam for any AGW “profit” to try and take him on face to face.
Evasion, run and hide stuff, slither and slime… every time.
(Like you when asked for empirical evidence of warming by increased atmospheric CO2, POC)
Cowards, one and all.
Remember when Gavin Schmitt refused to even be on the same stage with Roy Spencer.
PATHETIC to say the least.
42
roflmao.. hugely biased un-validated model output, built on a foundation of quicksand
You HAVE to be joking.!! left off the /sarc tag perhaps ???
Joe Romm is a “true believer”, a wannabee activist cult leader, one of the chief climate scammers.
Regularly makes a complete idiot of himself with his anti-science garbage.
So easily ripped apart as having zero scientific substance.
Just like you do, POC
42
Joe Romm is a fellow of the American American Association for the Advancement of Science while Tony Heller doesn’t even make wikipedia
24
NOTHING Joe Romm has ever predicted has come true.
A failed soothsayer. ! A FAILED scientist.
You STILL haven’t found any empirical evidence for warming or any other climate facet by increased atmospheric CO2.
You also are a FAILURE.
31
Perhaps you can email Joe Romm, maybe he can help you find your MISSING evidence, POC !
31
Nice to know that Wikepedia is your credibility bar, not surprising.
10
confused:
24 Feb: ABC: Australia is the biggest exporter of liquid natural gas so why is Victoria facing a future shortage?
By Jessica Longbottom
Mornington Peninsula mussel producer Michael Harris is usually focused on growing the biggest and tastiest molluscs in Victoria…
Yet here he is, wondering why AGL plans to build the country’s first gas import facility near his mussel farm, at a cost of $250 million, despite Australia being the biggest gas exporter in the world.
“It couldn’t be any more farcical. How can we be shipping off our resources and then buying them back,” he said.
Of chief concern to him and other worried locals is the environmental impact on Western Port Bay and plans by AGL to discharge chlorinated water back into the sea.
“I don’t have a science background, I just know things from what I’ve done and what I’ve seen. But the more I look into this … the more I’m concerned,” he said.
“I don’t think it’s going to bring gas prices down for customers.”…
Victorian households consume two-thirds of all residential gas used in Australia, and for the past 50 years that has not been a problem.
The state’s offshore gas fields have provided the bulk of the country’s supply and the resource has been cheap and plentiful.
But now those reserves are starting to run out.
Other gas reserves that were predicted to come online have not eventuated, and the anti-coal seam gas (CSG) movements in New South Wales and Victoria are having an impact…
“We have moratoriums on onshore development,” Tony Wood, the Grattan Institute’s energy program director, said.
“Meanwhile, getting [more gas] from elsewhere in the country is going to be expensive because the required pipelines would need to be built.
“So while all these conditions exist, Victoria is going to have [supply] issues.”
Victoria’s gas is no longer being sent offshore, but prices have remained relatively high and have contributed to soaring electricity prices.
AGL, which is predominantly a gas retailer, said that situation was forcing the company to get into the gas supply market.
“We know there is a supply crisis coming from 2021,” Phaedra Deckart, AGL’s head of the project, said
“People aren’t going to be able to turn on their heaters or we’re not going to be able to run gas-fired power generators because there just won’t be enough gas. Manufacturers are going to suffer.”…
Those doomsday predictions are not echoed by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), which believes it will be another decade before demand outstrips supply.
But locals are asking if that is the case, then is an import terminal the best solution and worth the environmental risk?…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-24/why-victoria-is-facing-gas-shortage/10798554
40
It’s not that hard really. We export LNG from Dampier and Gladstone, both a long way from Melbourne.
To ship LNG direct from these ports to Vic would involve MUA crews. FAR cheaper to buy on the Singapore market with Indonesian crews as we now do for most of our refined petroleum.
BTW I DO agree it’s crazy because Vic has proven onshore reserves which Dan has embargoed. A change of government and a lifting of gas extraction bans will leave Vic with another white elephant like the desal plant.
50
Bill Shorts was on the news tonight proposing a fleet of Oz owned cargo vessels to ensure our trade. Doesnt know how many or what it will cost yet , but sure making our future supply chain dependent on MUA laden ships does sound like a recipe for success. The next 4 years are going to be intersting.
10
I think this has been done before. It smells of the perpetual motion machine to me, “If it sounds too good to be true ….” sort of thing. London to a brick it has -ve return on energy input.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B64NJ7e8sl0
20
It sounds too good to be true. Capturing CO2 out of the atmosphere anywhere. The climate change believers would probably go for it. Except that, I remember reading somewhere, if carbon levels were to decrease, the earth could cool.
However, if it is true, surely it would work better if sited next to a coal burning electricity generator, more carbon to capture, and less being released into the atmosphere.
30
It was said more than once that the new fuel is created by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and is exactly the same as existing fuels that we use to run our cars etc. If that’s the case, when it burns the product will be energy plus CO2, so the only benefit will be cheaper fuel. I’m sure the oil companies will allow that.
10
Hanrahan:
The reason we burn fuel is to get energy. CO2 is the by-product.
To turn that CO2 back into fuel would take more energy than originally released.
Maptram:
Quite correct, so why build a plant that extracts CO2 from air where it is a very minor component? Yes, it can be done but at a cost in electricity before the extra energy needed to convert it back to fuel.
I suspect that this is an attempt to collect millions from gullible politicians. Perhaps a plant will be installed on the Great Barrier Reef.
50
Dp people really believe all this stuff? It’s hard to speak against it though lest you be called a dinosaur. I love the bit about electricity becoming “incredibly cheap and clean”.
The Future
Auto repair shops will go away.
A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor. Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!
Gas stations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, they’ve already started. You can find them at select Dunkin Donuts locations.
Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that only build electric cars.
Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!
Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?
A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.
The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people don’t see it coming.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these days?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Forget the book, “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
UBER is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world!
Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the USA, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM’s Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won’t want to own a car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car.
This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles. That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.
Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustions engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and so they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful or affordable neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
Cities will have much cleaner air as well. (Can we start in Los Angeles, please?)
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
And it’s just getting ramped up.
Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue – technology will take care of that strategy.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health purposes.
WELCOME TO TOMORROW – it actually arrived a few years ago.
20
Hanrahan:
I love the bit about electricity becoming “incredibly cheap and clean”. Then obviously the Greens are sabotaging the future by making eectricity more and more expensive, and less reliable.
60
I think people who write this stuff wear rose coloured glasses, or live in wealthy compounds with thier own diesel gennies…
Why on earth would you drive a spark, when we keep trashing our grid and cant charge them? These writers seem to have a real world disconnect. Yes, some of the tech can change the world….but…..the world runs on electricity. Your roof top solar dies….what then? Cant drive to work in your EV at the Ministry of Truth?
Your solar cells are pumping out higher and higher voltage to export power…which fries your fridge motor…..
None of this has been thought through…..
51
“Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. “
How is that going to happen?
Computers are programmed by computer programmers…. who don’t.
52
“What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years”
Already happening to many solar and wind companies as subsidies are removed.
What is the point he is trying to make ?
72
“Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean. “
You mean like it was 10 years ago.
Cheap, and basically the only output from a well maintain coal powered power station was H2O and CO2, neither of which is “dirty” in any way.
Now the huge FILTH that is happening in China with the manufacture of wind turbines and solar cells, is just IGNORE.. It is a FILTHY industry. !!
The embedded energy in wind turbines and solar cells will be lucky if it is ever met by production.
You CANNOT build wind turbines and solar panels without using large amounts of COAL
72
Pat, it’s all future fantasy crap.. It’s painful to read so I don’t. Maybe you should limit what you expose your mind to ss well to avoid being downed in this fantasy BS
31
Im sorry Dave….I cant do that….
20
“A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. ”
that right there is absolute rolled gold [snip], I can point you to any number of gasoline engines with less than a hundred parts, and a trucload with less than a thousand. Its a red herring in any case. The old argument about EV vs ICE reliability based on part counts. One technology is mature. Notice how you ararely see broken down cars even though there are millions of them?
20
When was the last time you saw a 10 year forecast materialise as predicted?
I am quite confident that 10 years from now electricity prices in Australia will be more expensive than now.
10
My boss used to say anything beyond 6 months is [snip] and conjecture but you have to be seen to have the “vision” thing.
00
Chopper Reid did a forecast for Alice Springs covering the next thousand years and so far he has been spot on .
00
“In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.”
My scientific calculator from 1976 is more intelligent than most politicians 🙂
70
and infinitely more useful
20
There is a push to create an AI ” global brain”, which may be why govts are pushing everyting into the “cloud”.
IMHO, once all data is out in massive datacentres, the AI will be basically a global Big Brother mining your every tweet or farcebook post, your health records, your tax records etc your insurance claims. This appears to be all pkanned by 2030. This may be why they cut off 3G and forced everyone onto 5G so they can can real time monitoring of everything.
This appears to be the plan, and the telcos ( and NBN ) are the nerve fabric to allow it to happen . This also explains why we were forced onto the NBN – easy surveillance. It was never about technology…
30
3Gs still going fine thanks and 5G isnt widely deployed yet (Huawei ruckus and all that) our network fabric is a bit more hessian than silk at the moment. Believe me, you were being surveilled (if you were interesting) long before the NBN came along.
10
“There is a push to create an AI ‘global brain’…”
Sounds like the novel Colossus by D F Jones (The 1970 movie Colossus, The Forbin Project was based on this novel).
00
Can one be Off Topic in an unthreaded post ?
ummmmmmm ?
Anyway Judith Curry has a new digest of the last month’s articles on Climate & related subjects.
The Saltbush Club article’s by Viv on the variability of sea levels in Sydney Harbour is there if anyone has missed it.
https://judithcurry.com/2019/02/23/week-in-review-science-edition-95/
51
Excellent find Bill.
40
Extremely gloomy I would say.
03
I don’t know about gloomy but I do know about a lake in NSW that had a channel dredged so seawater could get into the lake after – was it the sea level fell or sand built up I can’t remember .
20
Yeah, I live there. The entrance opening coast a bucket load of money, it stayed open for about two months. Money well spent I say /sarc off
11
Many coastal lakes in NSW with outlets exposed to the sea regularly silt up with sand at the mouth due to wave action. They used to be left alone to burst naturally from water pressure as the lake levels built up with rainfall, but then came the developers. Houses and caravan parks were built 2 feet above average water level and when the lakes fill, those homes are put at risk, so councils move in with the traxcavators. Kids have a great time on boogie boards riding the standing waves produced in the channels when the lakes are breached. It’s a never-ending job every few years. I have never heard of a lake that needed re-filling from the sea though.
Larger lake systems with strongish tidal flows like Lake Macquarie and the Myall Lakes/Myall River silt up for different reasons. The Myall River silted up a couple of years back and the impounded fresh water caused sores to form on many of the trapped salt water fish. That water was heavily stained with the tannins derived from the tea-tree and paperbark forests that are common on the Myall, and that may have had some influence on the formation of the fish sores. Mostly saltwater fish in impounded brackish lakes fatten and do very well, as do the prawns.
20
All true Beowulf. This particular lake had filled with mainly fresh water over the previous summer, and had breached the upper trigger point for opening. No houses were at risk, but it did drive a lot of deer into the surrounding houses. The opening was dredged and a lot of the sand was piled to the south of the opening, forgetting about a northerly eddy just at that location. Al the water raced out, and as you say boogie heaven for a week. With the mouth open, and the drought starting to bite, the water level dropped to the mean low level. At that stage, the sand move back across the opening, blocking the lake. A couple of months of evaporation and the ongoing drought, and the lake has reached its low level trigger point, and a water quality trigger as well (shown by our own fish kill hundreds only though).
From a geological and geographical viewpoint, these behind the foredune lakes are ephemeral, and in my view should be left to from the swamp they are destined for. Like you say, residents have a different view, and demand that action be taken, particularly those in Canute street (I made that up)
Interestingly the cyclone, now a tropical depression, pushed a bit of fresh saltwater in over the sand, but not enough to change the water level.
11
Just think if sea levels were to rise that lake would be saved .
10
I got called out for being off topic in an off topic thread on a car forum
My response was less than decorus. Not one of my better moments.
50
Found this in the comments, a long winded biased report, but if you read between the lines the Trump Administration is organising his Red Team to battle the Klimatariat.
Happer says we are in a CO2 drought and I totally agree.
40
Forgot the link.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/retired-physicist-leading-new-trump-effort-question-climate-threat-security
20
If you keep using faceplant…well…
Be warned….
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-24/facebook-under-fire-over-report-its-accessing-your-personal-info/10844156
“The directive to New York’s Department of State and Department of Financial Services (DFS) came after the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said testing showed Facebook collected personal information from other apps on users’ smartphones within seconds of them entering it.
“The WSJ reported that several apps shared sensitive user data including weight, blood pressure and ovulation status with Facebook.
“Flo Health Inc’s Flo Period and Ovulation tracker app told Facebook when a user was having her period, and Instant Heart Rate: HR Monitor sent a user’s heart rate to Facebook immediately after it was recorded, the WSJ reported.
“The report said in some cases Facebook could access the data even when the user was not signed into Facebook or did not have a Facebook account.”
20
That’s it your 1976 calculator is trying to take over the World!
30
I am not a scientist.Hence I need some help to debunk what I intuitively think is an incorrect statement This is the statement from a warmist activist.
“Obviously, we are not helplessly connected to the sun. We have managed to distort the climate considerably. By setting up a layer of greenhouse gases we have effectively changed the goalposts, not to our benefit.” All replies welcome.
30
What has distorted the climate considerably ?
CO2 is the answer from Climate Greenists.
CO2 constitutes just 400 parts per million of the atmosphere. And of that 400 ppm roughly 300 is there because of natural processes. So we are talking about 100 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere added by mankind in the past 160 years.
Ummm think about that for a while : 100 ppm = 0.001 % of the atmosphere… Thinking that such a small amount of a natural gas in the atmosphere can cause global warming is the same as thinking that homeopathy actually works..It is totally unscientific and il logical.
11
too many zeros, Bill … 100 ppm = 0.01 %
Still, a tiny change, and atmospheric CO₂ level is still way too low..
.. especially when you consider that plants grow best with around 0.1% to 0.2% atmospheric CO₂.
21
are you absolutely sure?
https://file.scirp.org/pdf/AJPS_2014012616335329.pdf
Corn, with C4 photosynthetic metabolism, often has no photosynthetic or yield response to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. In C3 species, the yield stimulation at elevated carbon dioxide concentrations often decreases with nitrogen limitation.
21
Thanks Andy !
I always get confused doing that sort of arithmatic……
Despite that my point remains : Greeenists think that a homeopathic dose of CO2 in the atmosphere will create a huge global warming..
Given the popularity of homeopathy nowadays, I guess that is no surprise…
11
Hello mem, just to say, re Ol’ Sol’n Cee- Oh – Too fightin’ it out: Earth’s atmosphere, nitrogen 78 per cent, oxygen, 21per cent, say, thank goodness for that!Carbon dioxide, o.o38 per cent, not ONE percent,not even HALF one percent but point 0.038 per cent. O sun,keep shining down on Planet Earth,summer time, tra la la, ‘n the livin’
is easy, homo sapiens and all life here depends on you.
http://notrickszone.com/2018/05/21/scientists-have-found-the-missing-link-from-sunspot-activity-to-cosmic-rays-clouds-to-climate-change/
20
Kinky Keith had a good summary a while ago .
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/unthreaded-oct-22-2011/#comment-622658
00
23 Feb: NBC: New refillable batteries could fuel an electric car revolution
New technology promises an end to motorists’ ‘range anxiety.’
by Jaclyn Jeffrey-Wilensky
Scientists are working to develop refillable, or so-called flow, batteries that can be refueled in minutes at a vast network of converted gas stations. It’s a shift that could make electric vehicles (EVs) more attractive to drivers who are wary of long charging times (LINK).
“You drive 300 miles, drain your tank and pump in new [liquid] — as long as it would take to fill your car with gasoline — and drive off,” says John Cushman, a professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and mathematics at Purdue and a leading researcher on liquid battery technology (LINK)…
But if the two scientists have great expectations for their battery technology, other experts are cautious.
Hailiang Wang, a chemistry professor at Yale and an expert on energy storage, calls the new technology a possible “game-changer” but says there are big obstacles to overcome, including cost and reliability. And Gil Tal, director of the Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center at the University of California, Davis, says he has seen many claims like Cushman’s and Cronin’s in his decade of working with electric vehicles — and they seldom pan out. “Between cost, reliability and safety,” he says, “most of these things will never make it all the way to cars.”…
https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/new-refillable-batteries-could-fuel-electric-car-revolution-ncna974556
nothing to do with CAGW – just follow the money:
20 Feb: Bloomberg: Sustainable Finance Is Growing in the World’s Worst-Polluting Country
Being an impact investor in China isn’t as lonely as it used to be
by Emily Chasan; With Zhang Dingmin
(Chasan is a sustainable finance editor at Bloomberg News in New York)
Tao Zhang is bullish on sustainability in China — especially when it comes to livestock emissions. The founder of U.S.-China impact investing consortium Dao Ventures has spent much of the past year looking to accelerate investment in more environmentally friendly plant-based or lab-grown meat for Chinese consumers through a new company, Dao Foods.
Climate change activists are worried that China’s increasing appetite for meat is further straining natural resources and causing methane emissions to soar. Yet Zhang and a new crop of impact investors believe that this, and China’s many other environmental and social concerns, can be solved with capital.
“China lacks water and natural resources, so this is something that needs to happen,” says Zhang, who splits his time between Beijing and Washington, D.C. “China’s a big consumer market, so we’re always thinking about ways to make Chinese consumers part of the solution.”…
In China, the most populated and polluting country on the planet, there’s the extra benefit that solving local challenges will make a significant dent in global efforts to lower carbon emissions or build sustainable agriculture…READ ON
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-19/sustainable-finance-is-growing-in-the-world-s-worst-polluting-country
10
20 Feb: Phys.org: Earth’s atmosphere stretches out to the moon – and beyond
by Claudia Mignone, American Geophysical Union
The gaseous layer that wraps around Earth reaches up to 630,000 kilometers away, or 50 times the diameter of our planet, according to a new study based on observations by the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, SOHO, and published in AGU’s Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.
“The moon flies through Earth’s atmosphere,” says Igor Baliukin of Russia’s Space Research Institute, lead author of the paper presenting the results. “We were not aware of it until we dusted off observations made over two decades ago by the SOHO spacecraft.”…READ ON
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-earth-atmosphere-moon.html
21 Feb: Space.com: Surprise! Earth’s Atmosphere Extends Far Beyond the Moon
By Mike Wall
https://www.space.com/earth-atmosphere-extends-beyond-moon.html
10
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-20/climate-change-causes-its-first-mammal-extinction
This stinks so badly of ‘you can’t show it wasn’t AGW’
I wouldn’t be surprised if some activists poisoned the little buddies to get this ‘news’.
31
Jennifer Morahassy on sky news was letting Bom have a bit more free publicity they probably didn’t want .
She was pointing out they are changing data and then changing them again to make it seem as though the present is warming relative to the past .
20
Sadly she is preaching to the choir on Fox.
While that story remains out of sight BOM, or anyone else, will feel no pressure to reply.
20
Thanks to David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz at #8 I have watched the Ian Plimer presentation together with the six chained to it.
It was interesting to hear his take on Peter Ridd’s travails in the q and a on the sixth presentation which remarks he prefaced by advising the audience that he is not allowed to speak at JCU nor at Latrobe. I presume Macquarie wouldn’t have him either in view of Murry Salby’s treatment there.
The key insight was born of his initial foray into the public lists fighting “Creation Science” where he came to understand that the people he was contending with had not reasoned their way into their beliefs and so reasoning was an inappropriate means to employ in fighting them; ridicule and mockery were the tools adopted.
Analogously 97% of contributors on this blog understand that valid reasoning cannot lead to the conclusion that reducing emissions will affect climate so there is no point in trying to reason with the proponents of that error. Plimer’s point is that these people arrive at university unable to spell let alone write in sentences and have no basic scientific knowledge as evidenced by the circumstance that none of them can answer his standard query “what is the molecular weight of carbon dioxide?”
He lives in Adelaide and mentioned a power bill of $3300 for one quarter. And of course he has a diesel generator.
He thought perhaps children dying on operating tables in blacked out hospitals could kickstart a bit of political will to end the madness but against the imperatives of return on investment the money men will prevail say I.
20
South Australia’s wholesale electricity pricing will be interesting to watch this week with the high pressure system holding station off the South East coast leading to high temperatures and weak winds. Friday afternoon and early evening, in particular, could stress the generation and transmission capacity for the SA grid.
20
As we all know, climate changed has been blamed for the recent floods in Queensland. I heard on the radio today that the floodwater is expected to reach Lake Eyre in two to three weeks, and that Lake Eyre is expected to be full for the first time in 100 years. It was mentioned that 1000s of pelicans are expected as well as other birdlife. I wonder whether climate change caused the lake to fill 100 years ago.
Of course all that water will evaporate and will probably be blown eastwards to fall as rain over the south east. If the rains over the coming seasons are heavier than usual, climate change will again be blamed, nothing to do with the floodwaters from Queensland.
10
FYI for those in the far south of New Zealand, Climate Hustle is being shown at Invercargill’s SIT Centrestage Theatre, on Wednesday, 27th Feb, 7.30pm, $10 entry. Come and be entertained.
00
I mentioned at work today that Labor’s 50% will make power more expensive and was told that it wouldn’t because Greenland has 100% renewables and they are doing very well. I am a public servant and most people at work are Labor or Greens voters. Is Greenland very successful with its renewables
00