JoNova
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Statistics
EVs – a value assessment.
The Weekend Australian. April 13-14. 2019. Page 34.
“As prices come down, not only will we see more electric cars on the road, they’ll also finally be cheaper to operate compared to fossil-powered cars.”
That is the conclusion of James Gerrard, the principal and director of the financial planning firm FinancialAdvisor, as published in an article in this weekend’s “The Weekend Australian”. This is where Gerrard lands, even after agreeing with the RACWA’s analysis that demonstrates the much higher cost associated with the ownership of an EV currently, compared with an ICEV.
Sometimes you really don’t have to look too hard to confirm the negative views the general population has about financial advisors.
Gerrard assumes prices will come down. He quotes the Nissan Leaf at around $50,000 compared with a Tesla at more than $100,000 as some sort of example. He ignores the Toyota Yaris Ascent, at around $18,000, as an ICEV alternative.
Gerrard quotes an off-peak charge of 10 cents per kWh for home charging, but ignores the Supply Charge of around $150 per quarter plus the GST thereon. That little addition puts about 1.5 cents/kWh onto the cost of the home charge. Think 11.5 cents/kWh not 10. That lifts the costs to $2.16 /100 kms for the EV, not the $1.88 he uses.
In his fossil-powered comparison, he uses a 10.6 litre/100km vehicle. He ignores the inconvenient fact that the Toyota Yaris Ascent is nearly twice as efficient as that, at 5.8 litres/km. His dollar comparison on fuel costs exaggerates the difference by a factor of 7.3 when a more accurate figure of 3.5 applies. He ignores the fact that for both EVs and ICEVs fuel costs are a minimal component in the overall running cost. It’s the depreciation and opportunity costs that are the killers for EVs.
What else does he ignore?
He ignores the 41.6 cents/litre fuel excise that the Federal government imposes on petrol and diesel fuels and the GST thereon. The annual value of that levy amounts to some $18 billion per annum of revenue to the Federal budget. No equivalent levy currently applies to electricity used to charge EVs. The Commonwealth will not walk away from that revenue stream. Not ever.
He ignores the maintenance costs of EVs by quoting a Sydney lawyer (who bludges on his office’s electricity to charge his car for “free” while he’s at work) who underplays the servicing element with a glib “….servicing is a simple exercise of tyre check, brake fluid check and air-conditioning check”. Through that mis-direction he ignores the 2018 Bernstein survey that found Tesla’s biggest problem is its customer service. He also ignores the fact that as of January 2019, there are currently only four Tesla service centres in Australia, and all of those are located on the eastern seaboard.
He ignores the possibility that the reason the prices of EVs are high might have something to do with the manufacturers having assessed that governments are suckers for buying votes and subsidizing “trendy” technology. Especially the latest virtue signaling green tech. Why would the manufacturers bring down the price of EVs when governments are likely to intervene and do that for the consumer, through a raft of subsidy boondoggles?
He ignores opportunity costs. The opportunity cost on a $50,000 EV Nissan Leaf, at 5% per annum, is more than 175% greater than on an ICEV Toyota Yaris Ascent; and 455% on a $100,000 Tesla. What financial advisor ignores opportunity cost? At 5% per annum the difference between the Toyota and the Leaf is some $1,600 per annum or $31.00 per week, in favour of the Toyota. A figure that puts the weekly fuel costs in the shade.
Between financial advisors, lawyers and socialist politicians you’d be hard pressed to work out which group has the lowest public credibility rating. Mind you, I’ve no doubt used EV salesmen will eventually give them a run for their money.
592
It is interesting that this financial adviser is using the game plan from the UN Agenda 21 playbook. The one in which the slaves will be housed in
slave penssustainable cities where the only use of any vehicle will be to do the shopping because going out into the country side will be banned just as travel between cities.If we ignore the long range plans of the UN Church of Climatology it is easy to see he has ignored another vital item. With an IC powered car you can always take a can of fossil fuel with you, with an electric powered car there is no way you can take spare electricity with you – batteries go flat you then have a towing charge to pay.
Sam you mentioned the federal tax on fossil fuels and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was raised substantially by the lunatic labor twit, if he gets into power, to support his ‘electric cars are cheaper – you must have one’ pledge.
The EU is trying something along those lines – the difference being that they are trying to hit the German car manufacturers for not using anti-pollution measures fast enough. Stupid, stupid.
343
Also you cannot keep a few jerrycans of electricity in your shed ready for an emergency. How will the grid cope when all these cars get plugged in just prior to the arrival of a cyclone. How well will emergency evacuations work out with electric cars.
272
Well one solution is for every house to have a mini nuclear power unit. /sarc
152
That is only 10 years away, and has been for the last 50 years or so!
193
If you’re in an emergency evacuation situation what is the chance of finding either a working gas pump or a charging station if the power goes away? Zero. You’re up the creek with no means of locomotion no matter what you have.
I’ve been there. It’s no fun.
60
Where I live a lot of the gas stations have generator back up. If a gas station is part of a supermarket, the often have their own generator as they do not want the food to spoil. So you can buy gas for the generator, and sausages to cook out with, and beer to overcome boredom, as you endure the ice storm.
20
James,
I can only say that you have it better than I do. I would die of shock if I found a gas station with a standby generator.
Sausage and beer sounds excellent.
20
The simple fact is that EV’s have a long way to go before they can replace existing cars. I doubt that when the time comes they can replace the cars of today it will use much of what currently is used in the EV of today. The only likely constant will the motors that drive all wheels. Everything else will be totally different and as yet unknown, not just the battery but also the charging procedure if one is indeed required. So those who are pushing the EV are talking through their hat and is a total waste of time placing deadlines on when they will be say 50% of the cars on the road. For the foreseeable future fossil fuel cars are the only way.
203
PeterS:
Agreed. It is (not so) well known that petrol has about 8-9 times the energy per weight than the top lithium battery. There are advantages in an EC in that motors are smaller and lighter, no gearbox or differential (or muffler). They also have the advantage of regenerative breaking which saves some electricity.**
But that battery is 600kg to lug around. Getting the weight of the battery down would increase the range considerably. Personally I don’t want to drive non-stop from Sydney to Melbourne (or in the other direction) and I hope not many do, as it would result in lots of over-tired drivers arriving in the peak hour traffic.
** That doesn’t mean that the car recharges itself as it is driving as someone claimed.
101
The other point being missed is by the time electric cars are common place they will also be driver-less. So driving non-stop for hours on end will not be an issue.
10
Dear Graeme No3.
You are correct about there being an energy density difference only you missed a zero! The energy density of LI batteries is somewhere between 0.3 and 0.7 MJ/kg where as the energy density of petrol is 46.4 MJ/kg so the difference is more like 100 times.
And if you want to know why the realists talk about nuclear and you can never get a greeny to discuss it, the energy density of Thorium and Uranium is about 80,000,000 MJ/kg – Yes that IS the right # of zeros!!
50
But there are many merchant bankers and others with investments in so called renewables pushing the politicians, two I could name are a former Liberal PM and a former Liberal Opposition Leader and/or family members. A Labor Senator and former NSW Premier’s husband has been invested in and apparently working in a company planning to roll out recharging stations, points in public carparks and even maybe parking meters with plug in.
As the media report is now several years old we must conclude that Paris Agreement is an excuse to make huge profits at our expense. It was recently reported that the masquerading as independents team are backed by the left side of politics, they even have union helped to establish GetUp campaigning for them. And a bunch of merchant bankers and a solar business major shareholder.
150
What was/is the name of the company Dennis?
It’s one that I’d like to put on my list of greeny coys to watch its future performance.
I’m enjoying myself as I see how they spiral down, taking the virtue signallers money with them. I also like watching how the initial promoters of the IPO and early stage investors slip out the back door before the death spiral starts.
120
Sorry I don’t have that in memory bank.
20
Yes, they are excellent stocks for shorting
30
… and don’t drive your EV whenever temperatures drop below 10°C. Keep a pair of good walking shoes in the car — a pair of Justins (just in case) —- handy for frosts … 🙂
70
You can run them in Siberia. When the battery goes flat find a truck to hook up to, get towed for 100km with the brakes on and charge the battery up! But I can’t the YouTube video of 8t anymore!
10
Great analysis S S,
Many thanks.
Dave B
91
Peak stupid. Are we there yet?
ADVICE: Why should you not buy an electric car?
The complaint commonly levelled at EVs is that they won’t get you from Sydney to Melbourne on one charge, and a Tesla could delay your journey by hours while it’s sitting idly to recharge.
In reality, an EV owner is more likely to drive to the nearest airport and hop a plane interstate than drive there.
https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/advice-why-should-you-not-buy-an-electric-car-117954/
This is my surprised face.
141
Travis – I just dropped this comment over at the CARSALES article.
“I couldn’t let you get away with the comment “As more renewable energy sources come online the CO2 toxicity of Australia’s power generation will gradually wane”.
CO2 TOXIC – try living life without it – WITHOUT CO2 the earth DIES – GOT IT!!!!
CO2 a LIFE ESSENTIAL trace gas making up only 0.04% of ALL the earths atmosphere and here we have morons trying to reduce it.
The earth is only warming due to three main factors the SUN – WATER VAPOUR – OCEAN CURRENTS
Earth’s atmosphere is 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, 0.9% argon, and 0.03% carbon dioxide with very small percentages of other elements. Our atmosphere also contains water vapour (incl clouds) which is the main greenhouse gas – CO2 has a TINY effect as a greenhouse gas but that effect diminishes on a “logarithmic” basis
EVs – who cares – won’t be 50% EVs on the road in 11 years no matter how much money is poured down the drain and you can take that to the bank!
PLEASE – do some research BEFORE writing such BS – CO2 toxic CRAP!!”
Let’s see if it gets published or deleted.
Cheers,
271
Travis…..
Never mention “Peak Stupid”. Someone will take that as a challenge.
Assuming that people only choose cars on the basis of their most common use, is pretty high up there. Unless you expect everyone to have multiple cars for different purposes, it’s not surprising the people who commute on weekdays, ALSO want to use the same vehicle for towing the boat or caravan on weekends, or visit the relatives for Christmas.
Those who assume that everyone will simply switch to air travel have probably forgotten what it is like to travel with young children, numbers of children, and lots of luggage.
Why the hell do you think that SUVs are one of the most popular categories of vehicle in the country?
100
Just an update Travis.
As I suspected they would – Carsales didn’t allow my comment to be published in spite of every word being FACT.
Keep this in mind good people whenever you’re thinking of buying or selling a car and searching on line.
DON’T USE CARSALES.com – “they can’t handle the truth”.
Cheers,
70
“In reality, an EV owner is more likely to drive to the nearest airport and hop a plane interstate than drive there.”
Thats just a today statement while EVs are toys of the relatively well off. If they are to be consumer mainstream, then the consumer mainstream will expect they do things other cars do.
40
I guarantee you, the image conscious “try hards” who buy EVs woukdnt touch then if they were only worth 20k…its all about the self righteous , self serving “look at me” ( in a word – pride ) foolishness….
10
Cant get too excited about EVs. They are here, they are an option for some, nobody is mandating a 100% conversion as much as some want to make it an either/or debate. Hope there is some uptake so we can see some real world experiences. Most likely the downsides will be glossed over and everything is awesome. Nobody ever wants to own up to poor choices or buying a lemon.
122
Nobody is mandating? What about the ALP policy of 50% by …? How are they going to make that happen except by subsidising EVs and/or penalising ICEs?
212
Its a target not a mandate and its 50%
10
But the 50% target is backed up by a mandated maximum of 105g of CO2 per km. A 2 cyl 900cc Fiat 500 is about the only non-hybrid car that makes the cut – the 4cyl 1.2l does not.
This is what they want us to live with.
30
Sam…
I drive simple, functional Toyota 4wds made in the 1990s.
They use between 12.5 and14.5 litres per 100, and require the engine oil changed every 5000km.
But they cost less that $10,000, (closer to half that) so depreciation, opportunity cost and insurance are minimal, as you point out.
The last time I did the sums, diesel would have to be $6 per litre to make buying an EV or Hybrid cost-effective…….. and they still wouldn’t carry a tonne payload, travel off-road, or have a range of 1000km with no more modification than some cheap additional fuel storage.
All of which I need.
I can get parts for them cheaply, and just about anywhere. I can get them repaired by any small-town mechanic.
There is zero doubt that Shorten’s strategy will ensure that the cost of these older vehicles. will rise, as more people who cannot afford to buy EVs will be pushed into the second-hand market. It will increase the cost of transport of goods and services.
This “Labor” leader will sacrifice the poor in order to buy votes from inner-urban green elites.
252
Peter,
I agree.
20
There’s just a bit of imbalance between quantity of votes there!
20
Dont forget, “Labor” is just a label – underneath, they are just globalists….
Sold out to the highest bidder….
30
The other ugly reality no one talks about but should – should any party try and *force* people out of the country into cities and aldo force use of EVs , people will push back – hard.
The ugly reality is you cant imprison a whole population, and I predict civil unrest beyond what the cops or army could deal with, may kick off.
20
…and…just so were clear, I hope ut doesnt cone to any form if violence, which I abhor. My concern is if you force people into a corner, they will come out swinging…unless of course that was tge plan, so they could provoke a conflict to use all thier shiny new anti-terror laws which mean indefinite detention without trial etc etc against the population?
20
You mean, as an example, like the way 18c is used to constrain freedom of speech.
30
I doubt it. Its Australia, we just whimper and whine then comply.
10
Anks SSam for highlighting this rubbish.
Whilst fuel/energy costs are not a main factor, a realistic comparason is given here ..
https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/how-much-do-electric-cars-really-cost-to-own–119474
The biggest cost factor as you point out, is Depreciation costs which is largly unknown for EVs, but due to their high initial cost is bound to be greater than ICEs
Maintenance costs can be found in the EV manufacturing literature and ..cutting a long analysis short,… are very much similar to an equivalent ICE…..All cars need regular servicing, tyres, brakes, transmissions ( YES all EVs still have transmissions..with oil etc !) ..most servicing costs are labour charges anyway, and an EV will likely need specialist tecnicians at main dealer prices…( few “K Mart” auto centeres will be trained up to analyse your battery condition )
And finally, there is the other major unknown future cost of battery replacement once the 5-8 year warranty has expired, ….EV owners had better budget for an expensive extented battery warranty if such a thing is available ?… or be prepared for a 10 – $20,000 battery change at some point. !
131
If the big claim made by EV proponents, that with new battery technology they will become cheaper and have longer range is true, then massive depreciation is assured. Why would you pay good money for a 5 yr old EV when a new one is half the price and/or has twice the range.
We are used to the incremental improvements in ICEVs. Improvements by an order of magnitude just don’t happen.
150
Neither will it happen with batteries/EVs, people relate computer Moores Law type advances to battery chemistry. It doesnt fly. There will need to be a shift of some kind, like supercaps or fuel cells or …………..?
40
Electronics has broken out of Moore’s Law now because the physical limits of the materials are maxed out, as it is with batteries. There are limits to the energy density of a battery dictated by the chemistry. Lithium is very light, so I can’t see it ever getting much better. Aluminium air batteries might be better if the aluminium hydroxide gelling issue could be overcome.
There are other issues with EVs; in order to get enough performance out of a very under powered drive chain, EVs have every possible weight stripped out. They have a lot of lightweight expensive materials, recover waste energy, and use a bunch of other electrical tricks to Max out the range. There are equivalent energy saving opportunities in internal combustion engines. Lighter chassis, Variable volume engines (shut down cylinders), shut down fuel supply and hold exhaust valves open on downhill grades. Use regenerative braking tech by having an alternator on a wheel to recharge battery and power electrical system, electrically driven air con. This is enough to lower ICE fuel consumption by another 1/3.
So even now comparing EVs to ICE isn’t fair because you can’t get the equivalent energy saving tech in an ICE car (yet). Even so the EVs still can’t compete with my Hyundai I30 diesel at under 4l per 100 km (if carefully driven).
30
Another EV cost factor overlooked is that the storage of energy/electricity battery pack is a replacement part over time, usual warranty is 8 years and for Tesla about $15,000 including removal and replacement charge. So the battery pack is a “fuel” cost.
And the faster the battery pack is recharged, at present best is 40-60 minutes for 80 per cent of battery capacity, the shorter will be the life of the battery pack. And
the energy system will not allow discharge completely so some energy cannot be used.
Then according to US reports there is the fire hazard potential even from a minor grounding of the EV, like connecting with a speed bump in a carpark. The battery pack will be ignited and then burst into a inferno in a very short time. Pity a driver and passengers caught inside after a road accident. Apparently the only way to seal with an EV battery pack fire is with a huge amount of cooling water, conventional fire extinguishers are useless.
111
In The WE Australian there is a ‘revue’ of the Kia Niro NV which claims a 454 km range and a 54 minute charge, from zero to 80%.
I wonder what happens to a lithium battery when you discharge it completely? ( HINT the word stuffed is involved).
50
Zero, in EV pack terms is not Zero at cell level.
All commercial EV packs have complex BMS (battery management systems) to prevent , together with many other things, damaging discharge levels..
But…one of the worst things you can do to a lithium pack is to charge it at a very fast rate
80
Zero, in EV pack terms is not Zero at cell level.
All commercial EV packs have complex BMS (battery management systems) to prevent , together with many other things, damaging discharge levels..
But…one of the worst things you can do to a lithium pack is to charge it at a very fast rate
30
A 454 km range would be brand new battery pack and theoretical maximum range reduced by speed travelled, load of people and luggage, terrain – hill climbing with some recharge from braking downhill, air conditioning on or off, lights on or off and other demands on energy.
I read at a US website that a driver can discount theoretical driving distance by just over 30 per cent to estimate how far to plan for the next recharge station visit, so maybe 317 km with brand new battery pack?
Also regular fast charging reduces the life of the battery pack.
30
That only keeps the fire cool protecting the “surrounds” lithium has a violent exothermic reaction when exposed to water. Water and lithium do not mix well it is impossible to put a lithium fire out with water.
20
Thank you Bob, so while cooling the battery pack down the fire cannot be extinguished?
10
There is very little lithium in a typical EV cell., and what there is is in the form of Lithium Carbonate , which is non flammable.
The primary fuel in a Lithium battery fire is the solvents used in the electrolyte, whixh has high flamable VOC content.
The situation is compounded by the electrical energy stored in the cells which can act like a continuous “ignition” system, such that even if you extinguish the flames and reduce the heat, stored electrical energy in a damaged pack can still re-ignite the pack, even hours or days later.
20
Correction. For the record.
5.8 litres/100 km.
But you all knew that. 🙂
50
He also ignores the fact that the great Australian lifestyle of camping, fishing and boating goes out the door with internal combustion along with tradie trailers, firewood trailers, box trailers and car trailers. There are no ev’s rated to tow trailers in Australia except the Tesla X SUV at $132,000+, and towing trailer severely limits range and increases charging frequency and time.
333
Keeping the common herd out of the Bush and locked in the big conurbations is probably seen as a feature not a bug, by EV proponents.
210
And then, not satisfied with economic and practicality failures on the road, some want to make EV’s fly.
Things that perform well get into the economy pretty rapidly, without a lot of government help. Flat screens replaced CRT’s.
Cell phones replaced dialup, and cameras, and computers, and themselves several times. Ballpoint pens somehow got into the economy without government help. I don’t recall the velcro subsidies.
And so on.
Politicians have a talent for politics. I fail see a correlation with this particular skill and any other…..
We don’t ask talented musicians to run our energy systems.
We don’t ask it of our sports heros.
We actually, in the private economy, let people seek out jobs they are suited for.
Politicians are good at seeking office, which seems to be mostly telling lies with a straight face.
They win a seat.
They have two ends, a thinking end and a siting end.
Their continued prosperity depends on their seat.
The other, if it ever existed, atrophies.
201
There was a government Velcro subsidy in 1960 that was a complete rip off…………
141
yeah, but when all those things evolved we werent trying to “save the planet” and signal our glorious virtue.
61
Bet he doesn’t get 40 km with that aircon turned on. Same for the heater.
111
Won’t need the aircon due to global cooling but will need the heater almost all the time so the problem becomes much worse. Let’s face it the facts. Those pushing the EV agenda are liars and/or completely stupid.
221
Front page of today’s SMH (Sunday Apr 14):
…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/radical-climate-action-critical-to-great-barrier-reef-s-survival-government-body-says-20190413-p51dul.html?btis
…
Much mention of the ever reliable IPCC. No mention of Peter Ridd’s challenge. And special mention of the nasty bleaching of a few years back, but no mention of extent, or of any recovery.
Must be an election coming.
Cheers
Dave B
80
During the Holocene Climate Max air temperature was 1.0–3.5 °C above modern levels (8000–4500 cal year BP) all the coral reefs around the world became extinct. sarc/off
90
Channel 9, the new owners of Fairfax, told its staff they should discontinue their bias. Easier said than done.
Moving right along …
‘The mid-Holocene (~ 6000–4000 yr BP) is a period where rapid shifts in global climate patterns and monsoon systems occurred. Modeling data suggest variations in paleomonsoon intensity influenced the Western Pacific particularly.
‘Palynological data from north-eastern Australia indicate generally wetter conditions and suggest that a shift occurred in ENSO system state at ~ 5000 yr BP from a La Niña type with higher precipitation, to an El Niño-dominated state with lower precipitation associated with modern ENSO conditions. Variations in the ENSO system and the AISM were likely to have been important influences on Holocene reef growth in the Great Barrier Reef.’
Roche et al 2014
20
Maybe the reporter or editor should be reading https://phys.org/news/2019-04-advanced-virtual-technology-captures-coral.html rather than the garbage being spouted by JCU and the UN Church of Climatology, they would have less egg on their faces if they did.
90
Thanks, David of Cooyal. I’m waiting for the results of Peter Ridd’s trial – should be very interesting.
40
Agree. And The Australian of April 6-7 had an article by Janet Albrechtsen commenting on the French report on freedom of speech in universities, which might interest you. Quite a different view from that of the Go8. (That’s not Gang of eight, but Group of 8 University Vice Chancellors.)
Sorry for not having a link – paywall – and my lateness in commenting. I only got to read the article this last weekend. (I buy the Oz each Saturday and read it over the following week.)
It’s not clear to me whether the French report has been formally released or only selectively made available.
Cheers,
Dave B
10
Just found the report:
https://docs.education.gov.au/node/52661
Cheers,
Dave B
10
This will need the JoNova braintrust to work out
“Y2Kyoto – Define “average” ”
”
Everywhere is warming faster than everywhere (1)
thread pic.twitter.com/rppjBWK3MV
— DawnTJ90 (@DawnTJ90) April 9, 2019″
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2019/04/13/y2kyoto-define-average/#comments
“
40
Check comments there too
20
In my last power bill I was charged 21.9 cents per kWh for off peak power in South Australia, more than double the 10 cents per kWh mentioned at the beginning of this thread. Charging electric vehicles won’t be as cheap as people think.
100
Chris, and remember that an electrician has to install the ‘off-peak’ EV charging outlet and a separate meter to get the ‘off-peak’ rate, same as an off-peak hot water service. I don’t hear many folk talk about this. Could be ignorance? Not surprised.
30
Plus if a lot of EVs are charging it will cease being off peak. Off peak demand is not all that much lower than peak.
50
Where I live (West of brisbane, near Ipswich) off peak power is frequently during daylight hours, not much use for home charging after work.
30
I can’t see this, the rules for off peak state that the appliance must be permanently wired. I don’t see how plugging the car in fits that definition.
50
Oh, that’s interesting. Were we not encouraged to do washing overnight to take advantage of off-peak rates?
20
How long will the off-peak period remain off-peak when Smart Meters (I refused to have it installed) encourage consumers to change usage habits and everyone does their washing at mid-day?
10
We rented a holday house in Europe once and it had a timed lock out on the washing machine so you couldnt do it over 3 hours of lunchtime. The area had a strong culture of home for lunch as the big meal of the day, so they need their power for that.
20
Carbon (sic) tax news! If only they had one …
Archeological find affirms Heiltsuk Nation’s oral history.
Settlement on B.C.’s Central Coast dated back to 14,000 years-
“Heiltsuk oral history talks of a strip of land in that area where the excavation took place.
It was a place that never froze during the ice age and it was a place where our ancestors flocked to for survival,” said William Housty, a member of Heiltsuk Nation.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/archeological-find-affirms-heiltsuk-nation-s-oral-history-1.4046088
CO2, the truly magical invisible air gas.
41
“Trees – As Thermometer Or As Sun Gauge?”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/04/10/trees-as-thermometer-or-as-sun-gauge/
Now did one M. Mann ever run an experiment like this?
40
For Wikileaks followers
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/04/09/tips-notices-april-2019/#comment-111025
And subsequent comments
30
I have noticed with some battery powered tools I have that they lose strength before they finally give up the ghost. A person living on a steep block or in the mountains may have to take this into account before committing themselves to an EV. One marginal battery on a steep incline could cause a roadblock for many others. And would the tow truck be battery powered or the NRMA/RACT/etc carry some spare batteries?
KenL
111
It has been written that 90 per cent of EV sold are still on the roads.
The others made it home.
230
They need to make a battery replacement a roadside task rather than a workshop project before any of that is possible. Given the protection required for the battery, separation from the passengers and energy involved its going to be an interesting design challenge.
30
Hi All,
What are the latest science papers dealing with water vapor as a positive feedback and the refutation of water vapor as a positive feedback.
I’m looking for up to date discussion of the topic from both an alarmist and a skeptical perspective.
Any help would be much appreciated.
Thanks
20
There was a very good discussion on the issue of GCM feedback by Lord Monckton on WUWT, I think in 2028. Very heavy on the maths side though. It seems that the original range of 1.5 to 4.5 was plucked out of thin air, with no scientific basis for those figures.
80
Darn, my time machine is playing up again. 2018.
70
That is the politically chosen range picked by the IPCC, from the larger range found in the 90 or so different CMIP models that the IPCC considers. Note that the CMIP guidance specifies that virtually all warming is human caused, because in effect only human “forcings” are allowed. The IPCC then argues that since only human causes explain the warming it must be human caused. This reasoning is perfectly circular.
40
The CarbonBrief article dated 19 June 2018 “Explainer: How scientists estimate climate sensitivity” may be a good place to start. Also look at Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and Transient Climate Response (TCR).
As mentioned in my comment below, the range of 3 degrees C plus/minus 1.5 decC was estimated by National Academy of Sciences (NAS) committees (Charney, 1979, Smagorinsky 1982), where their range was a subjective estimate.
51
Clive Best thinks its negative and so does Roy Spencer.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/09/five-reasons-why-water-vapor-feedback-might-not-be-positive/
00
Michael Hammer also believes its more negative than positive.
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2009/04/role-of-water-vapour-in-climate-change/
10
I would suggest it is negative as we appear to have a stable system. Any good engineer will tell you that positive feedback results in unstable systems!
20
Positive feedback is employed in many electronic circuits today, such as op-amps, comparators and all oscillators. It’s all about percentages.
10
I see Tones in bringing out daH big guns for campaigning. 🙂
But where is Advance Australia’s brilliant idea for a super hero…Captain Getup???
Regardless, i’d expect Abbott to win in Warringah, but his margin has gone to pot and could go either way. Steggall is just the kind of Liberal “indie” that could knock him off.
515
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‘…but his margin has gone to pot …’
White collar millennials have moved into the electorate and they are Tony’s biggest threat, but he should get overwhelming support from tradies north of the Spit Bridge.
70
That’s what my builder son told me recently, he said that tradies generally favour a return of the present government, and cannot stand Union Labor. He has worked on northern beaches projects for many years.
He said much the same about the NSW election recently when ABC/MSM were predicting a Labor win, the Coalition won again comfortably.
90
Also, in the state election Manly which is part of Abbott’s electorate returned their Liberal MLA comfortably, but the Greens candidate gained second place.
30
The strategy might be to keep him in his own electorate defending his own turf and not assisting other candidates.
60
Certainly a strategy the Libs in other seats would endorse. 🙂
39
The leftist FEAR of Tony Abbott is palpable.
62
More likely eg… the people in his local branch have decided he is a dick and are sick of him.
319
Tony Abbott faced Liberal Party Branch members’ preselection for the 2019 Federal Election, he was opposed but won the secret ballot comfortably.
The “dicks” are the people who have AbbottAbbottAbbott derangement syndrome.
161
Phil the demographics are changing and Bill Shorten has climate change as a top priority, big mistake the people are over it.
Morrison’s strategy on Adani is perfectly timed to split Labor and ultimately HSR should get the Coalition over the line.
72
Tony was the last leader to differentiate himself from the limp wristed left: Stop the boats, axe the carbon tax, axe the mining tax. It is no coincidence that he also had a handsome win. He is a good campaigner and would have the libs in better shape than they are now.
Labor are still scared of him, that’s why they attack him so hard.
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It’s manifest that without Abbott’s being re-elected the Liberal Party, already on the skids courtesy of the machinations of Photios and our Beloved Windbag, has no future.
62
Poor phloop, Your comments are nothing but a far-left sickly green yawn.
31
More old fashion pink, the classic model, Phil is not a totalitarian green.
20
She is no Liberal, not even close despite her campaign propaganda about her being “sensible right” and other suggestions that she is more Liberal than real Liberal.
She has a former senior Labor staffer as her campaign manager, Tim Flannery as an advisor (Greens), GetUp using as the model a Soros activist organisation in the US and assisted start up here by Australian Workers Union including donations when Labor Leader Bill Shorten was a senior executive (he was later appointed a GetUp Director), CFMEU have donated $1.2 million.
And supported by renewable energy and emissions reduction (EV) merchant bak and business interests who want Union Labor and Green in government.
41
There must be sufficient heat coming on, over the interesting way the 444 million was just thrown at this non issue.
I’ve learnt the Establishment double down on hysteria whenever they get close to being exposed in whatever current shonky they are up to…..
Now we need to keep pushing on this weeping sore………
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6043057/radical-climate-action-critical-to-great-barrier-reefs-survival-government-body-says/?cs=14231
“Radical climate action ‘critical’ to Great Barrier Reef’s survival, government body says
“Australia’s top Great Barrier Reef officials warn the natural wonder will virtually collapse if the planet becomes 1.5 degrees hotter – a threshold that scientists say requires shutting down coal within three decades.
“This federal election campaign is a potential tipping point for Australia’s direction on climate action, as the major parties pledge distinctly different ambitions for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
“However neither party has rejected the proposed Adani mine outright or promised to phase out coal, an export on which Australia is heavily reliant.
……………………
The document, obtained by the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age under freedom of information laws, has not been released to the general public despite being in development for the past 15 months.
……………….
“A spokesman for Environment Minister Melissa Price said limiting climate change was important for the reef but it was “a global problem requiring a global solution, and Australia is playing its part”.
“He cited the Coalition’s $3.5 billion carbon solutions package and commitment to the Paris treaty and the $443.3 million grant to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation to improve the reef’s health.
20
Part One – (I’m doing it in two parts to separate the background from the findings)
I’m thankful for sites like these because they make me look at things from a different perspective. They do that because other readers are curious and ask questions.
That happened with my Base Load Series, when freddyflatfoot over at the STT site asked if a daily, weekly power consumption total for every source could be done. I had a look and thought it would be too time consuming, but I worked it out. True, it is time consuming, but not on the scale I thought at first, thanks mainly to the Aneroid site and its data. It takes me around three and a half hours each day to do it, but as far as I can see it’s the only place it is done on a scale like this, giving the data for the day before. The Monday Post for the weekly data ending on the Sunday takes a couple of hours longer, but again, what that does is to give a Rolling Total for extended time frames. Over the time I’ve been doing it, I’ve tweaked it every so often, and I’m still tweaking it now, in an effort to get as much information into it as is feasibly possible.
Now, while i do that, I can find and collate the data, record it, do the Maths, and then Post it, so it’s there as a record. It’s just data with explanation and a daily summary in the text. What it does is give me an overview, and along the way I have learned things I didn’t see before, and I’m still learning things from it.
Thanks to two or three others, maybe even more, but two in particular, Robber and Bill in Oz, that data is being put out there into other places, and there aren’t enough hours in the day for me to do that, so I’m thankful that they do this.
Then, and this is because they have a rudimentary knowledge of electrical matters, and that’s not meant as disparagement, because how do you learn if you don’t ask, but they do ask seemingly simple questions, and THAT is where I get that different perspective from.
Bill in Oz asked me a seemingly simple question the other day, (via a comment at my home site) that seeing as how I’ve been doing this for a while now, have I noticed any trends whether (especially) wind and the two solars (plants and rooftop) are increasing their levels of supply.
Luckily, as part of the data collection, I have added percentages, so I can make that comparison, but I had never really looked at it before.
What I did find surprised me and then prompted me to go and look at other areas along the same lines.
So thanks to Bill in Oz and also to Robber for what they do.
Tony.
200
Part Two
The question was if there was a trend with respect to wind and solar, and are they increasing their output as a percentage of the overall total output from every source.
Both versions of solar power are not all that easy to discern as they cover Winter and Summer, and their outputs vary during those times, Winter low and Summer high, and solar plant power is less than 2% anyway, and rooftop solar should be increasing as more homes get panels on their roofs, and there is the slightest increase in percentage, but wind can be looked at to see if there is a trend.
I started the Series in May, and then we had to move home from Rockhampton down here to Beenleigh, so I had to stop the Series, thinking I could catch up. I couldn’t, so I started it all over again. The first Series covered 13 weeks, and the second Series is now at Week 27.
I can’t compare from day one, as percentage vary sometimes wildly, so I need to wait for them to settle down, so here, I can use the percentages at the end of week 13 in the first block, and then compare that percentage with now, at the end of week 27.
Okay then, at the start of the Series, wind power had a Nameplate of around 4900MW, just a little less than 5000MW. Now, at the end of week 27, wind has a Nameplate of 6106MW, so, in a little less than a year, wind power has added more than 1100MW in Nameplate, so, (theoretically) it should show a rising trend.
At the end of week 13 in the first Series, wind power was delivering 7.58% of the total power being generated from all sources.
Right now, after 27 weeks, wind power is delivering 6.76% of all power being generated from all sources.
So, in actual fact, wind power, with MORE Nameplate, is delivering a smaller percentage of the overall generated power.
Okay then, how about in Other Countries then, and here, let’s look at the biggies, and this is actually a little spooky really.
The U.S. has a Nameplate for wind power of between 90,000MW and 95,000MW, hard to find the actual total, as so many of them are going in when you have such a large total, so that’s Australian Nameplate multiplied by 15.
At the end of 2018, the percentage of output power from wind power, compared to total generated power from every source is 6.63%, and now compare that to Australia 6.76%, roughly the same percentage really.
China has a Nameplate of 164,000MW of wind Nameplate. However, when it comes to a percentage of the total from every source, wind power in China is down at 5.25%.
But the fact that the U.S. and Australia are so similar was a surprise to me really, as was the fact that Australia now has increased its Nameplate for wind, and yet the total generated percentage has fallen.
Sometimes, you need ‘new’ eyes to help you see things you may not be looking for in the first place, as this was a really interesting exercise.
Tony.
240
Tony I should really have read both parts of your comment before writing my reply above.
But what you have discovered is astounding and needs to be publicised widely.
Wind turbines installed have gone up
Name Plate capacity has thus . gone up
but actually percentage of power delivered to the AEMO grid has declined !
BIG WOOPPS !
Now that is a stuff up of major proportions.
Have the reporters of the MSM beaten a track to your door yet for interviews ?
Or have the results of your research over the past year been publicised by the MSM yet ?
Not that i know of.
Now that tells us something.
FACTS DO NOT MATTER !
Bill
PS I’d love to see your analysis of solar power contribution to our electricity demand.
111
Solar power generation for AEMO grid from Tony’s great data for May-Aug; Oct-Dec; Jan-Mar in MW :
Solar Large 103; 394; 451
Solar Roof 933; 1154; 1217
For peak solar in summer, total solar = 1688 MW, versus total generation average of 24,668 MW, that’s 6.76%
Coincidentally, that’s exactly the same as wind, so between them, 13.52% of total generation.
The grid only survives thanks to reliable coal delivering 16,800 MW, gas 1900 MW, small fossil 500 MW, and hydro 1760 MW.
Double unreliable wind and solar, and remove any of the reliables, and catastrophe awaits.
70
But Robber, is the percentage from solar increasing or static, or even decreasing ?
There has been a huge amount of money invested in solar power.
Is that money yiilding an increased % of total power or not ?
If not it is ineffective as a source of electrical energy.
Despite al the hype & bull
Bill
41
Bill, too little annual data to see the trend from Tony’s data. But a quick check of Anero.id shows March 2019 peak solar 4,000 MW, March 2018 3,200 MW.
20
Solar data ??
Please remember that Roof top solar figures are not hard data.
They are only “estimates” based on small sample sizes, and factored up using a complex formula of post codes, sales figures, and magic Pixie dust !
They take no account of system age, failures , shading, or complete decommissioning of many systems…..( there is a recycler in SA processing 600 panels every day !)
So , again, treat RT solar data with a large pinch of salt .
81
See here how the absolute peak for rooftop solar especially, even in the middle of Summer on bright cloud free days only gets to 4400MW tops, and that’s from a Nameplate of 8000MW plus. As to average, it’s delivering an average of 1180MW per hour across the last 27 weeks and that includes all of the Summer, the best time of year for solar.
Same with solar pants as well. Also barely managing 55% at absolute peak.
Tony.
70
And just to reinforce the unreliability of wind and solar, the lowest spot wind generation has been just 140 MW, and 600 MW average over 24 hours, peak 3-4,000 MW versus average of 1680 MW.
While for solar, daily low zero, peak 5-6,000 MW, average 1,400 MW, or 1,680 MW in summer.
50
Tony it is through discussion and seeing things from other perspectives thta we improve all of our knowledge..
I’m just glad that you are doing this on the power grid.
It allows us all to see the ‘renewable’ power sham for what it really it.
An expensive & erratic experiment with our way of life.
121
As with Paris Agreement, as UN Official Christiana Figureres and others have acknowledged, it is all about wealth redistribution and socialism attacking the capital system we have known for a very long time that has created the developed world’s prosperity and well being of the people.
And wealth creation for those who are in the know, connected and/or directors like George Soros and Al Gore, Maurice Strong (now deceased) and others, Goldman Sachs people and other merchant bankers.
122
Re EVs, drive around Melbourne and Sydney inner suburbs. All the cars are street parked. How are these going to charge their batteries? Line up at the charging station, as running power from the house is a safety hazard.
Also, new high rise apartments have basement parking, very few with charging stations. Will all owners be required to fit charging points to their parking bays. If so, will the electrics of the building sustain many charging at the same time? Similar comment for high rise office blocks.
180
When an idea is reely, really silly, so many ways it reely, really falls apart…
Of course we know Big Bro’ doesn’t like us to drive cars in the first place.
Like Prometheus giving us fire, which made the Gods quite cross, non-animate
energy and the wheel shouldn’t belong a us.
152
Yep. I lived in Sydney’s inner west and east for many years. When fibre-to-the-hub was proposed (and backed by Tony Windsor, who probably still writes long letters by pencil to Charlie Chuckles) I thought of all those thousands of above-ground warrens and just scratched my head.
How do you excavate a densely populated 19th century city to install all that hardware and wiring then send it up the spout of countless old buildings and el cheapo high-rises? (Even in the nearest town to me here on the midcoast there are streets you can’t get an ambulance into on a full moon, though you can certainly excavate.)
Not saying fibre-to-the-hub was impossible, just impossibly expensive, maybe. But getting power to hundreds of thousands of street-parked cars and those with open off-street parking? That’s going beyond impossibly expensive and getting toward the impossible.
I’m sure there’s an EV fan ready with some “all you have to do is…” advice for us. People who believe in Upholstery in Space tend to be great believers in all things Musk. We might even score some nifty advice like “if you want to run your car on coal you have to buy an EV”. Starman in his red roadster would agree.
131
I was thinking about inductive pickup chargers embedding in the roads.
https://www.powerelectronictips.com/measuring-wireless-charging-efficiency-in-the-real-world/
Assuming your average EV driver could park properly over the maximum efficiency energy transfer point ( unlikely ), and assuming optimum conditions ( unlikely )….I suspect even if you could have a closely coupled charger, you would have significant loses to air which makes EVs, yet again, less efficient.
Funny how this EV lark keeps coming up as “Lose-Lose”
130
I should have said Fibre to the Premises (FTTP), of course. Nice idea, take forever in a town where a bit of streetscaping on a corner can take two years and bankrupt a couple of businesses.
Really, I’m not against infrastructure that costs a fortune if it benefits the average punter long term. But people need to go and look at real situations like old Sydney’s enormous jumble of crumbly terraces and speccie high-rises before they decide on EVs over (much) better public transport.
120
Dont go all reality and spoil the narrative. Its simple, raindows,unicorns and wishful thinking will provide.
40
ANNALS OF GOVERNMENT MEDICINE
The Rolling Stones are still touring after all these years.
But a week ago, they announced a postponement of their upcoming North American concert series because of a heart condition suffered by Mick Jagger.
Then, only days later, it was announced that Jagger had undergone a successful transcatheter aortic valve replacement procedure.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/04/annals-of-government-medicine-27.php
The Rolling Stones have always had a good appreciation of the virtues of free enterprise.
John Phelan, the British economist who works for my organization, likes to quote Keith Richards:
“The whole business thing is predicated a lot on the tax laws…It’s why we rehearse in Canada and not in the U.S.
A lot of our astute moves have been basically keeping up with tax laws, where to go, where not to put it.
Whether to sit on it or not.
We left England because we’d be paying 98 cents on the dollar.
We left, and they lost out.
No taxes at all.”
40
They’re back to doomsday scare stories about the Great Barrier Reef , now claiming another 1.5c of warming will make the whole Reef collapse .
While Peter is away the mice will play !
114
Not Away. Rather he is shunned
Because he dared to prove them wrong
Scientifically !
121
It’s now the end of the Southern Hemisphere summer and the Antarctic-is-melting! Oh Noes! shibboleth has reappeared. It’s now apparently melting 6 times faster than it was in 1979. Oooh!
That’s not even scary! 1979 was the last year of the We’re-Going-into-a-new-Ice-Age and We’re-All-Gonna-Die! March and April are the last two months before the Southern Hemisphere’s Big Freeze sets in. So the Summer Surface Melt has nearly ended, and it will all go back to ice again.
Just wait: October this year (plus and minus one month) will see “Gasp! Greenland is Melting!” as what summer the Northern Hemisphere will be granted this year draws to its re-freezing end.
It’s so boringly predictable… and so painfully pathetic!
So I’ll raise your Great Barrier Reef with a melting Antarctic is and again with a melting Greenland!
While I’m on the subject of ice:
I don’t have any experience of the modern Li-ion batteries. From what I’ve been reading over this last Northern Hemisphere’s freezing temperatures, it appears that EVs batteries do a similar craven coward act to low temperatures as other dry cells do.
Do they actually stop delivering power and at what temperature does that happen? Most dry cells — akk those of my experience — stop at a fraction above 4°C — totally. Winters in the Southern Hemisphere have so far been as unspectacular as the Northern Hemisphere has been … otherwise. We have a solar minimum drawing ever closer as in another mini Ice Age. The Little Ice Age in the Northern Hemisphere was very well documented with lots of writings forming a comprehensive history. This didn’t happen for the Southern Hemisphere — not settled by people leaving written records behind them. Thus we have no idea of what we can realistically expect.
That seems to me to make it pretty silly to move into an EV fleet now with what is coming down the pike at us over the next few years. We don’t know how cold it is going to get. With so many EVs being parked on the street, I can see frosty days causing a lot of travellers making it to work late (or not at all). Lighting fires under frozen EVs to thaw out batteries is also not a good idea. Tesla batteries have a habit of combusting.
111
Rex Murphy: Apocalypse in Aisle 3 — climate change comes to your grocery store
60
Ah…corporate snouts in troughs……
30
80
Venezuela is still suffering from blackouts.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-industries/blackouts-threaten-death-blow-to-venezuelas-industrial-survivors-idUSKCN1RO196
This really highlights how important reliable electricity is to modern life… and what happens when it’s no longer reliable.
110
Those who have electric cars will chase down and steal cars from those who still have normal cars. When society is in a state like Venezuela it’s not only possible it’s inevitable.
71
Following the script that Lance predicted on here some time ago, sadly for them.
40
A South African engineer writes about the unreliable energy situation.
https://city-press.news24.com/Voices/renewable-energy-is-a-disaster-and-will-collapse-sas-electricity-supply-system-20190412?fbclid=IwAR0kya5MVI1aD_XcyKDC0Y2O-MAPGsKdHbmLZlFkkm4ZueYBjPQa_cMDkL8
50
An excellent description of the situation in South Africa
And just like what is happening here in Oz.
81
It’s Sunday and maybe we all need some funny to cheer us up..
Except it is actually serious
A Mercedes battery driven car !
Ummmm
https://www.facebook.com/bill.hankin
30
Not visible to those of us outside the Facebook pale Bill in Oz.
50
Sorry Serp, I looked at how to get away from Facebook But failed. My source was a Facebook post with no link to it’s original place on the web. which was some car mag journal.
10
Jaguar have released their new ev and it ain’t cheap , north of $170 thousand .
40
The answer is Yes …
Are Plastic Bag Bans Garbage?
Taylor found these bag bans did what they were supposed to: People in the cities with the bans used fewer plastic bags, which led to about 40 million fewer pounds of plastic trash per year.
But people who used to reuse their shopping bags for other purposes, like picking up dog poop or lining trash bins, still needed bags.
“What I found was that sales of garbage bags actually skyrocketed after plastic grocery bags were banned,” she says.
This was particularly the case for small, 4-gallon bags, which saw a 120 percent increase in sales after bans went into effect.
Trash bags are thick and use more plastic than typical shopping bags.
“So about 30 percent of the plastic that was eliminated by the ban comes back in the form of thicker garbage bags,” Taylor says.
On top of that, cities that banned plastic bags saw a surge in the use of paper bag …
Plastic haters, it’s time to brace yourselves.
A bunch of studies find that paper bags are actually worse for the environment.
They require cutting down and processing trees, which involves lots of water, toxic chemicals, fuel and heavy machinery.
The best policy, Taylor says, imposes a fee on both paper and plastic bags and encourages reuse.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/04/09/711181385/are-plastic-bag-bans-garbage
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I bought 1000 shopping bags for 40 bucks. 4 cents each. (Freight was 20 bucks.)
I would guess that IF I used the store bought re-usable bags diligently, I’d be better off financially by a few dollars, but worse off mentally.
Also, 4 cents each for a bag of garbage into the bin, is a lot cheaper than the re-usable ones used for the same purpose.
My observation is that the re-usable ones don’t last all that long! They become dirty, grubby, the straps break, and they become garbage bags. Spare me the idea of washing them!
The flimsy ones don’t last long in the Sun. The re-usable ones look to me like they’d last years!
If you happen to go to the local tip with your ute load of home cleanup material, the re-usable bags are all over the dump site. Hundreds of them. so much for cheaper and cleaner.
81
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/13/paul-allen-stratolaunch-first-flight-spruce-goose
For a complete change of pace. 🙂
51
Its 97% verbiage, but this caught my eye.
‘…vying to be a contender in the market for air-launching small satellites.’
There goes Katter’s dream of having a satellite launch pad on Cape York.
30
.
❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
❶①❶①
❶①❶① . . . What is the best kept secret in Climate Science? . . .
❶①❶①
❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
.
Climate scientists want people to know how much they have warmed by.
But they don’t want people to know what real absolute temperature they live at.
Why would that be?
Real absolute temperatures are more fundamental than temperature anomalies.
Climate scientists have to use real absolute temperatures, to calculate temperature anomalies.
But the real absolute temperatures are never shown to the public.
Why would that be?
Could it be, that real absolute temperatures make global warming look less catastrophic?
Will many people discover that they actually live in cold countries? And that global warming might make their country nicer?
That couldn’t possibly be true, could it?
There is only one way to find out. Read the second part of my series of articles on RATS – Real Absolute Temperatures:
https://agree-to-disagree.com/rats-north-winter-south-summer
81
Sheldon
,this approach has a problem.
In Science “Absolute temperature” usually means the Kelvin Temperature…
Which is roughly 272 degrees below zero centigrade…
So for me what you are saying is confusing because you are using zero degrees centigrade as your ‘absolute’ baseline.
Your argument is valid.
But please don’t use the term “Absolute” in this way.. way to confusing and it undermines credibility.
82
Bill in Oz.
The problem is finding a meaningful name which clearly identifies actual temperatures from temperature anomalies.
I considered:
– actual temperatures
– real temperatures
– absolute temperatures
Temperature anomalies can still be considered to be “real”.
In the end, I went with “real absolute temperatures”.
The absolute part refers to the temperatures being an absolute measurement, rather than a relative measurement.
It does not refer to the absolute (or Kelvin) temperature scale.
I know that the name that I have used is not perfect. It was the best that I could come up with.
40
I suggest ” Centigrade temperature”.
We use this term every day
We learned it at school
So slight room for misunderstanding
Simple
40
Simple, but not perfect !!!
Centigrade may refer to:
– Centigrade or gradian, a French unit of plane angle and 1/100 fraction of grad/gradian/gon
– Centigrade, a historical forerunner to the Celsius temperature scale, synonymous in modern usage
The Celsius scale, also known as the centigrade scale, is a temperature scale used by the International System of Units (SI). As an SI derived unit, it is used by all countries except the United States, and a few others.
I have never used Centigrade, in my entire life !!!
I am a Celsius user.
20
Bill.
I forgot to say, the units for temperature anomalies is degrees Celsius (or Centigrade), the same as real absolute temperatures.
So saying Celsius (or Centigrade), does not indicate which one you are talking about.
That is why I use “real absolute temperatures”. Plus it has a cool acronym, “RATS”.
The “absolute” indicates an absolute measurement, rather than a relative measurement (or anomaly).
One look at the values, e.g. 10 or 20 or 30, shows that it is NOT Kelvin.
10
as pointed out “real absolute”, in this context, is ambiguous and does not follow usual scientific usage.
22
.
Gee aye
So sue me !!!
00
My suggestion is measured temperature. “The temperature as measured was X oC.”
“They don’t want people to know what the temperature was as measured where they live.”
“real absolute” is meaningless imo. The information that you suggest is not being told to people is the temperature as measured by a thermometer. It is a measurement that attempts to estimate the actual temperature as accurately as possible. So the thing that is being conveyed is the measured temperature.
True story.
00
Except anomalies are also centigrade temperatures. Maybe a new term that has to be explained, like total temperatures. Anomalies are differences.
40
“rather than a relative measurement.”
Celcius IS a “relative” temperature measurement.
11
measured temperature
01
“Will many people discover that they actually live in cold countries? And that global warming might make their country nicer?”
Since any warming, if it was actually real, would be in cooler regions, it would almost certainly benefit many places that suffer from cold now.
It would have very little affect on “hot” places, like the Sahara, Central Australia etc.. where people don’t live anyway.
11
Just a thought…
Re increase in Nameplate, but decrease in % of contribution.
Are there wind turbines going off grid? Aged, broken, burned down etc. Perhaps these are not taken off the list?
Ditto Solar panels. I’d hazard a guess there must be a lot of panels that are now producing a lot less than their nameplate, due to age etc.
This depreciation of output by demise, will surely become more pronounced in a few short years?
60
Further to my comment above re RT solar data, (ie, not recorded but estimated).
There ia no practical way RT solar output can be accurately monitored and reported on a national scale….hence the “guesstimation” approach which has huge potential for error…particularly overestimation as there is no way of knowing when panels fail or are removed…so “installed capacity” is similarily only a estimate.
Whilst there is inevitably error in Wind farm data, being a commercial contributor to the grid, their output is accurately monitored and reported, and their installed capacity has to be registered.
However, failures and maintenance outages may well slip by unnoticed
40
Too cold, too hot, its a regional cooling signal. At the moment Britain is feeling the effect of a cold air outbreak from Scandinavia, by Friday it will be a different picture.
‘Parts of Britain could be hotter than the likes of Ibiza and Rome this week as temperatures soar to 64F (18C).
‘Lengthy spells of sunshine are expected this week amid settled conditions, with the Met Office backing a warmer-than-usual next few months – and conditions also forecast to beat those in Barcelona on Friday.’
UK Mail
30
“as temperatures soar to 64F (18C).”
Oh No !!!! they are all going to FRY. 🙂
11
I know right. Actually what is happening is that the southern areas of Europe on the Med are getting cold conditions.
10
Is this irony ? Solar panels on an old prison , in a few years we can lock them up so they can stare at their folly .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-14/community-owned-renewable-energy-north-east-victoria/11002014
20
“Questioning Global Warming”
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/04/questioning_global_warming.html
20
“Moonbat being Moonbat”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/14/moonbat-being-moonbat/
40
Climate Breakdown is a newie to me; you’ve got to hand it to the likes of Monbiot/Moonbat for being at least as ingenious as advertising copywriters albeit less truthful.
40
Comment by E.M Smith Chiefio 12/04/19 expresses succinctly, top down control, USSR/Venezuela model, versus the free market.
‘People have a strong bias toward the belief that Central Authority and Central Planning by “Smart Experts” will make things better. It doesn’t. It can work for a while (usually about 40 to 50 years) then collapses in decay, corruption, and tyranny. Markets don’t do that. (They DO have a tendency to “Fattest Wallet Wins!” so some lite regulation to prevent that like Anti-Trust laws and Anti-Monopoly laws matter.) The “Invisible Hand” of the market has not been beaten yet.’
61
A Wish List of Policies for the Election.
From the IPA.
Policies that should be implemented:
Remove all references to race in the Australian Constitution
Repeal Section 18C
Withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement
Implement a flat personal income tax
Cut the corporate tax rate to 20%
Rotate the right to appoint judges to the High Court between each of the six states and the Commonwealth
Double the size of the House of Representatives and half the size of the Ministry
Privatise the ABC
Re-introduce the debt ceiling
Hold a Royal Commission into the Bureau of Meteorology’s manipulation of temperature data
Abolish compulsory superannuation
Abolish all subsides for renewable energy
Introduce a one-in, two-out rule for regulation to cut red tape
Repeal the Fair Work Act
Legalise nuclear power in Australia
Policies that should not be implemented
Don’t hold a referendum to divide Australians by race
Don’t raise taxes
Don’t increase government spending
Don’t build Snowy 2.0
Don’t introduce new anti-discrimination laws
I am not expecting much.
The Australian Conservatives actually support all of the good policies (should be implemented) and oppose the bad ones (should not be implemented). However our prospective politicians will not get media exposure.
I myself am not sure about doubling the size of the house of Reps. We sure have too many ministers.
Also not sure about giving states the say in appointing the High Court.
122
Thanks Peter C for posting that. I’d not caught up with it.
Like you I’m not supportive of more parliamentarians in the lower house (or in the Senate). What we need are parliamentarians who focus on the national benefit rather than their personal power and wealth accumulation. Human nature, being what it is, means more of the sods will be looking to screw over more of the voters and taxpayers to our continued disadvantage. Like a used car salesman, you can’t trust a politician to look after your interests.
A flat personal income tax rate is also problematic without the details of where on the income scale it becomes operational and at what rate.
Abolishing compulsory super also needs more thought. The problem at the moment is the way super is managed and controlled – especially by the unions. The point there being the unions’ unprincipled use of other peoples’ money to push their destructive socialist agenda.
18c needs to go. Pronto. As does their ABC.
60
Try this set of policies. They ACTUALLY WORKED……..And they were immediately acted upon. The first act was to remove the subsidies on electric vehicles. Cut the beer tax and win a landslide a la Ontario
Posted on 5:22 pm, June 15, 2018 by Rafe Champion
On a main topic, apparently James Allen has a super post in The Spectator this week. Mine has not arrived but it looks as though the whole thing is posted on Facebook The Australian Climate Skeptics Group. The word has been around for a few days that the left liberals in Ontario Canada were recently wiped out by the Conservatives. This is the winning platform.
1/ Repeal the existing climate change policy that instituted a cap-and-trade system as well as opposing a minimum price on carbon emissions and any sort of carbon tax.
2/ Repeal the existing Green Energy Act.
3/ Scrap a planned hike of the minimum wage.
4/ Cut corporate taxes by almost 20 per cent as well as cutting middle-class income taxes by precisely 20 per cent for those earning between $42,960 and $85,923 per annum.
5/ Cut petrol taxes at the pump by 10 cents a litre by ending the 4.3 cent a litre carbon tax.
6/ Scrap an existing ideological sex education curriculum and replace it with one after real consultation with parents.
7/ Get rid of the new age methods of teaching maths and bring back old-fashioned, proven methods of teaching.
8/ Change the laws and taxes so that beer can be sold at pre-2008 prices.
Obviously it was the beer tax that did it, a record turnout despite non-compulsory voting.
And this left-wing Liberal Party that espoused every fashionable global warming cliché going and which had closed gas-fired electricity plants and driven power prices through the roof was slaughtered. There is no other word for it. In the post election legislature (now increased from 103 to 124 spots) it won 7 seats. Yes, 7 – the fourth prime number. That’s 7 out of 124, a total so low that the Liberals lost official party status. Indeed, it was the worst wipeout result in Ontario electoral history.
Meanwhile the Conservatives or Tories made all of the pledges I listed above, all of them, and won 76 of the 124 seats on offer – a massive majority. Of the remainder, a hard-left union party won 40 (becoming the official opposition) and the Greens took the final seat. Oh, and in this jurisdiction of non-compulsory voting it was the biggest voter turnout in 20 years. I suppose one thing you could say is that the Tories in Ontario were lucky not to be taking advice from Mark Textor and actually opted to put a Grand Canyon-sized gap between their policies and those of the lefties.
30
I looked through that listed. I support 6 of those proposals and opposed 8 of them.
🙁
10
There is the possibility of getting a better class of idiot but don’t depend on it. It doesn’t happen often. The more idiots there are, though, the less they can do — they get in each others way far more.
NZ brought in MMP years ago and it’s been really great: the MPs can’t get much done. Long may this continue!
00
Donald Trump makes the world a cooler place.
https://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0240a451bb37200c-pi
30
The glorious leader of the people’s republic of Victoriastan is spending a million dollars of tax payer money on advertising that is aimed at the federal Liberal party .
70
‘The major parties are neck-and-neck in their primary vote in the first Newspoll since the May 18 election was called. Figures published in the Australian show the Coalition and Labor tied with a primary vote of 39 per cent. The increase comes after One Nation’s primary vote fell two points to four per cent.’
Sky News
30
Regarding Newspoll and Galaxy …
https://web.archive.org/web/20180815230730/http://stopturnbull.com/is-malcolm-turnbull-rigging-newspoll/
00
Excellent article by Ian Verrender on the slide in property prices.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-15/why-the-housing-bust-is-likely-to-continue/11002296
West Australia is looking particularly vulnerable.
30
Yes the home grown minerals driven boom in Perth is like we have seen previously.
But the Sydney & Melbourne real estate booms were the result of foreign ( mostly Chinese) demand from Chinese folk seeking ‘insurance’ ( via
business visas, & property ) outside China because of the new tighter regime there lead by Xi Jin Ping. It was the demand from this source which fuelled the demand for appartments in Sydney, Melbourne & the Gold Coast. Chinese restrictions on how much money it’s citizens send overseas mean that market has collapsed.I doubt that will change soon.
Meanwhile places like Adelaide which did not have much of an appartment boom are largely escaping the bust.
50
True, but suburbs around selective schools have experience quite high price rises.
30
As I am at Mt Barker 40 ks away from the CBD, that is something that I know nothing about.
But it does say something about a significant lack of confidence in the state secondary school system after 16 years of Labor ideological rule here.
10
Can anyone remember an election when labor’s main policy ideas haven’t been health and education? And they are still underfunded??????
00
The RBA is stumped, we are entering new territory.
Even though unemployment is relatively low, wages have stalled, so what the country needs is a bout of inflation through infrastructure spending. A shortage of workers should drive up wages.
10
What’s wrong with stable wages and low inflation? It seems to me that it is mainly things that government have their hand in that are inflating. Vote for a gov. which will live within it’s means and things will be OK.
10
They miss the old days of ‘wages push’ inflation, workers against capital, massive strikes as workers demanded higher wages and better conditions.
We have a steady state, outpost of the new world order.
00
Labor’s big tax on RE investors looks to be as well timed as their mining tax: Too late. They are taxing a deflating bubble.
If labor is correct in saying investors have pushed up RE prices, then there can be no orderly retreat. Home owners, or buyers not in mortgage stress can shrug their shoulders and say “I’ve got to live somewhere” , investors are only there for cap. gain. When the losses mount they MUST sell causing an avalanche.
00
Earlier in this thread there was a discussion of “CO2 sensitivity” which is said to be important. In reality it is nonsensical, because it assume that temperature is determined by CO2 level, which is completely false. There is simply no such number. As with the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin. In particular, given that there is no such number, it cannot lie between 1.5 and 4.5 or anywhere else.
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Did anything come of Lord Monckton’s paper indicating that the equations being used by the IPCC to calculate the impact of CO2 on atmospheric temperatures are flawed?
“Climatologists trying to predict global warming forgot the sunshine in their sums. After correction of this startling error of physics, global warming will not be 2 to 4.5 K per CO2 doubling, as climate models imagine. It will be a small, slow, harmless and net-beneficial 1.17 K.”
50
That’s the reference I was looking for up-thread! Thanks.
00
https://reality348.wordpress.com/2019/04/13/climate-change-in-margaret-river/
Deals with the nature of climate change. Data reveals no greenhouse effect in the warmest summer months over a 120 year period. Logic and observation indicate that the theory should be dismissed.
40
Thanks Erl, good effort.
The decline in winter rains from the turn of the century was put down to an intensification of the subtropical ridge, which lost its intensity in July 2017. Since then the system has returned to normal.
So what caused the collapse of the STR?
00
I have full admiration for Izzy being a devout Christian.
I have no respect whatsoever for the Lepricorn atheist and his leftist admirers..
40
peculiar headline as per google results, given it’s a rare pro-coal piece. Misra also challenges anti-Adani activists to try living in an Indian village without electricity for a week:
Anti-coal protest: Indian Australians plead to let Adani mine go ahead
9 hours ago – INDIAN Australians are pleading with anti-Adani activists and Bill Shorten … India community to the “stupid comments” made by Tanya Plibersek, who was … Griffith University’s Ashutosh Misra — a former adviser to the Indian …Climate change is a luxury.” Go to an Indian village and talk to a little girl who has never seen light…
this seems a more appropriate headline, also behind paywall:
‘Do it for the kids’: Plea to let Adani mine go ahead
Sunshine Coast Daily – 2h ago
last week:
PM slams Plibersek over comments on Adani – SBS
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has slammed comments by Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek over Adani’s owners being able to create jobs…
this morning Alan Jones had the PM on, then shortly after, did his usual anti-Adani attack, which effectively goes even further than Shorten (who says he would not rip up contracts). Jones said he agreed with Plibersek re jobs, because mining was becoming more and more automated. but, of course, Jones says he is pro-coal.
I posted a piece by Ashutosh Misra on one of Jo’s threads in January:
21 Jan: EconomicTimesIndia: View: Busting myths behind opposition to Adani mine
By Dr Ashutosh Misra
(The writer is CEO and Executive Director of Institute for Australia India Engagement)
First, Greens and environmentalists argue that coal fired power generation is decreasing globally. Well, according to the International Energy Agency Energy Outlook 2017 figures world coal production has increased by 3.2%, which is driven by the 3.6% and 6.9 % percent output in China and US, respectively. Global coal consumption has risen by 1% in 2017, with 4.8% consumption growth in India
Although India has increased the share of hydro, gas and nuclear in electricity generation, coal tops the list and understandably. For a Munni, sitting in a remote village waiting for electricity climate change movement is a luxury, and through the Carmichael mine Queensland can light up the world of millions of Munnis.
Also, contrary to the claims that Carmichael mine is a ‘super/mega mine’, it constitutes merely 2.5% of the total world thermal coal traded in 2018 and 0.5% of the world thermal coal demand in 2017…READ ALL
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/view-busting-myths-behind-opposition-to-adani-mine/articleshow/67619641.cms
20
Alan Jones might as well join this lot, as they are the only ones who, like him, are willing to tear up the contract:
14 Apr: SBS: Greens set to protest Adani mine over Easter when other parties pause
by AAP/SBS
The Greens will campaign against the Adani mine over the Easter holidays, despite the major parties agreeing to take a breather from the election trail.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale says he will join an anti-Adani convoy over the Easter period with others opposed to the mine, including former party leader Bob Brown.
“(We are) heading over across the country in raising awareness of what needs to be done when it comes to tackling dangerous climate change,” he told ABC’s Insiders on Sunday…
“The Adani mine can’t be built … people understand that if you don’t have a plan to transition out of coal, you don’t have a climate.”…
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/greens-set-to-protest-adani-mine-over-easter-when-other-parties-pause
10
Whilst the Greens and Jones both oppose the Adani mine, they do so for totally different reasons.
The Greens are simply churning the AGW / CO2 mantra, trying to restructure world order……
….whilst Jones is more basicly concerned with ground water consumption and polution in a critical agricultural area. He is a supporter of Farmers rights.
Jones is a prominent opponent of the AGW/alarmist movement , and an outspoken critic of both the CO2 theory and the Green movement .
30
and both of them think that the approval was pushed through the minister, possibly ignoring or downplaying scientific advice
25
There isn’t any “scientific advice” behind the Greens AGW/CO2 mantra and their hatred of coal .
52
And like many others I too am concerned about the possibility of interfering with existing water use arrangements that might see current users disadvantaged.
I am also concerned about the possibility that fracking may contaminate existing water reserves underground.
That said, if reliable science guarantees the safety of the water supply then both should be considered.
The only problem is that government can be bought to push past real environmental concerns.
KK
20
It is a concern. I know a few people in the groundwater team at Geoscience Australia (hey those are familiar initials)- I have a basis for concern.
31
CSIRO and Geoscience Australia “have confirmed the revised plans meet strict scientific requirements”.
Live with it.
Now any opposition is just mindless activism from the far-left totalitarian thugs.
21
like Kinky Keith and Alan Jones.
11
great comment Aye Gee… so much to do with the report in front of the minister and what she did with it.
22
You know there are NO FACTS behind the AGW /CO2 scam.
Why do you still just “believe?”
You again have the opportunity to put forward some “science”
But continue to fall flat on your face.
11
Sir you might enjoy this service for enhancing your comments
https://www.random.org/
21
A leaf with no backbone.
You poor thing !
Crumpled, dried, with no substance.
11
You know there are NO FACTS behind the AGW/CO2 scam.
Why do you still just “believe?”
You again have the opportunity to put forward some “science”
But continue to fall flat on your face.
11
I wont answer that. That is such a bubble question, I’m just going to leave that question in the bubble
11
I KNOW you will not even attempt an answer, little Geegee.
You KNOW you can’t.
A COWARD’S way out instead of just admitting it. 🙂
31
Bubble bubble bubble
12
Well the approval now rests with the Queenslanders, so one less problem for the LNP.
24
It isn’t a problem for the libs, just for labor.
Two faced Shorten pretends to be in favour of it while in Qld but against it when in southern cities. Outside the SE corner where they have no stake in it, my guess is that Adani has overwhelming support. That’s why they have to bus in protestors.
We have high unemployment and a stagnant economy in the north and busy-bodies in other states want to keep us depressed. :sigh:
51
agreeing with PF. Now there’s a novelty.
I actually disagree – it is a problem for both. For Labor for the reasons you state and for the liberals – Victoria and South Australia don’t like it
22
No. Queenslanders will not have a say in it, which is what PF claims.
10
No, Hanrahan, the next approvals are a state matter, last time I looked the mine was in Queensland, hence queenslanders. For the federal election it also means that it is no longer an issue, as all questions are now deflected to the Queensland government. The idea was to move what could be a timebomb away from the LNP campaign, but it also benefits Labor, at least for the next 5 weeks.
02
I agree.
Siding with Cyndi now that they’ve been shewn, is a bit uncertain.
10
PF, It’s only the socialist gov. that can hold it up now. Queenslanders will have no say it. The majority where the mine will be build approve but mainly southern socialists will not allow it.
My point is that socialists do not govern with what’s best for their district in mind but what’s best for international socialism ie globalism.
41
Oh, Sorry Hanrahan, I misread your point.
01
Nominative Determinism has a lot to answer for, does it not, Kinky
00
Yes the socialists of the ALP+Greens are a play on the NPC meme, which has also spread at least in part to the LNP.
Why the NPC Meme FREAKS OUT the Left
00
Oh, Sorry Cyndi, I misread your point.
10
what does it take to get FakeNewsMSM idiots fired? they can be so wrong, wrong, wrong and still they keep their jobs!
VIDEO: 1min53sec: That Time The Media Dubbed Michael Avenatti ‘Savior of the Republic’ | SUPERcuts! #681
posted by Washington Free Beacon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfVwotyqhHc
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14 Apr: Breitbart: CBS Drama ‘The Good Fight’ Tweet with ’Assassinate Trump’ Sparks Calls for Secret Service Investigation
by ALANA MASTRANGELO
CBS crime drama The Good Fight tweeted an image on Friday from a recent episode, entitled, “The One Where Diane Joins the Resistance.” The image showed a character pointing to a list of “target words” that included the phrases “Assassinate President Trump” and “Eliminate Mar-a-Lago.” The tweet, which has since been deleted, sparked backlash among Twitter users, many of whom reported CBS to the Secret Service…
Last year, the CBS drama came under fire after one of its characters suggested assassinating the president.
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2019/04/14/cbs-the-good-fight-assassinate-trump-tweet-sparks-calls-for-secret-service-investigation/
WaPo gives him space to say he doesn’t apologise:
14 Apr: The Hill: Boston Globe pulls op-ed that suggested waiters ‘tamper’ with Trump officials’ food
by Avery Anapol
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/438833-boston-globe-pulls-op-ed-that-suggested-waiters-tamper-with-trump-officials
maybe FakeNewsMSM feels ther’s been a slowdown in attacks on Trump supporters. Nolte hasn’t updated since July 2018, despite the many incidences since that date:
5 Jul 2018: Breitbart: Rap Sheet: ***639*** Acts of Media-Approved Violence and Harassment Against Trump Supporters
by John Nolte
https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2018/07/05/rap-sheet-acts-of-media-approved-violence-and-harassment-against-trump-supporters/
20
14 Apr: Townhall: What David Attenborough and Netflix’s ‘Our Planet’ Get Wrong About Climate Change
by Dr. Patrick Moore
Editor’s note: This column was co-authored by Dr. Susan Crockford.
https://townhall.com/columnists/drpatrickmoore/2019/04/14/what-netflixs-our-planet-gets-wrong-about-climate-change-n2544726
theirABC, meanwhile, have a bizarre piece, feigning empathy with Latrobe Valley population, without a hint of CAGW or coal’s CO2 emissions:
15 Apr: ABC: Latrobe Valley population numbers fall after privatisation of Victorian power industry
ABC Gippsland By Jarrod Whittaker
In 2001, Dr Bob Birrell from the Australian Population Research Institute, investigated the impact of power industry privatisation on the Latrobe Valley.
Dr Birrell found the benefits of restructuring Victoria’s power industry went to electricity consumers, mostly based in Melbourne, while the pains of the restructure were felt in the Latrobe Valley.
The report found the number of people employed in the power industry dropped from about 11,000 in the late 1980s to about 2,600 in 2001…
Since then, the region has lost the Hazelwood power station, which closed in 2017 and resulted in 750 jobs being lost.
“Now, I think another factor that’s contributed to the low population growth in the Latrobe Valley is the huge attraction of metropolitan Melbourne,” Dr Birrell said…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-15/figures-show-latrobe-valley-youth-population-drop/11000784
40
NZ’s “Interim Climate Change Committee (ICCC) will make this announcement on 30 April… government policy would push electricity prices by 39 percent for hardly any environmental gain. At stake is a plan to transition to 100 percent renewable electricity by 2035. This was agreed in the confidence and supply agreement between the Labour Party and the Greens after the 2017 election… New Zealand’s electricity system is [already] over 80 percent renewable”.
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/387074/government-s-energy-policy-could-drive-electricity-prices-up-39-percent
Meanwhile in the Land of Oz, winter may arrive early for WA with freezing snow showers forecast for Friday & Saturday –
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Bluff-Knoll/6day/top
21
How does NZ operate with such a high percentage?
I can think of three things which may enable this:
1/ Thermal. The steam is close to the surface so practical to harvest and is dispatchable.
2/ Hydro. I assume wetter so has a higher percentage than we could achieve. Again mainly dispatchable.
3/ Wind. Again an assumption but wind would have a higher capacity factor there than here.
Solar would be a washout. 🙂
But they still can’t do it cheaply.
10
Hanrahan, situated halfway between the equator and South Pole, as well as sitting atop the Pacific Ring of Fire, we’ve got the best and worst of everything! According to this, Wairakei’s thermal output provides 5% of the North Island’s (most-populated) needs:
https://www.engineeringnz.org/our-work/heritage/heritage-records/wairakei-geothermal-power-development/
The bulk of the rest is hydro: think mountains / snow / rain / short steep rivers / Roaring Forties. The first hydro scheme began in 1885 to provide power for a stamp battery to unlock gold from schist rock in Skippers Canyon (I used to be a tour-guide/driver up there 20 years ago) out the back of Queenstown in the South Island. According to wobblypedia, NZ’s hydro provided over 80% in the 1980s, down to about 60% now. We have one (1) remaining coal-fired plant, Huntly, which the Greenunists want to shut down [my grandfather sailed out from Scotland in the 1920s to work in the Huntly coal mines and my father was born there not long after, so I have a soft spot for the place].
Carbon-heavy bird-chopping windmills are taking over the landscape like triffids, yet their electricity output is still meagre – and unreliable. And as for those elusive magic pixie unicorns, none so far have been discovered, though our Climate Change Minister (a Green ex-banker) claims he’s seen them…
21
I hope the red thumber comes out and says exactly where you erred. I won’t hold my breath though.
40
The link below may flush-out red thumber from hiding behind his/her mummy’s skirt of anonymity – then again it may be baby’s afternoon nap time:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Radical_Greens_are_the_Great_Killers_of_Our_Age_FINAL.pdf
Written by Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng. – a Canadian geoscientist and engineer who was the 2019 Summit Award recipient for Leadership until Gang-Green found out he was an unbeliever – briefly and succinctly highlights the similarities between 20th-Century totalitarian dictatorships and today’s green blob, group-think activism. Most of my friends & family are hard-boiled believers in the Cult of Doom – nigh impossible to have a calm, coherent chat with about the benefits of a little extra warming as well as a little extra CO₂ since the LIA – while every geologist I bump into laughs heartily at this modern madness. Cheers H.
40
That’s well worth a good look. I saw it earlier but didn’t have enough time to absorb it properly.
10
don’t think anyone has posted this:
14 Apr: StopTheseThings: Flat Broke & Busted: German Wind Turbine Maker Senvion’s Spectacular Financial Collapse
https://stopthesethings.com/2019/04/14/flat-broke-busted-german-wind-turbine-maker-senvions-spectacular-financial-collapse/
20
Pat… did you pick up on the australian angle to that ..?
Senvion is the supplier of turbines to several new wind projects in Australia.
…
20
Chad – yes, I noticed that!
10
Where is the “policy certainty” for the intermittents that Germany has become so famous for?
It must be getting reasonably obvious that intermittents cannot provide an economic contribution to most netwroks at any cost. Even if they cost nothing they would still add cost in most networks because they disrupt the dispatchable generators. The exception is where hydro is the current dominant source of generation and where perched water is in limited supply. I have noted that even Norway has had periods of low perched water levels.
10
Donald’s best troll eva!
His plan to do sanctuary cities a big favour and buss new illegals straight into their towns and states is classic. Since the election the mayors and governors have told America that new immigrants are wonderful, law abiding and industrious. Trump offers them more of a good thing and they scream. Why?
70
delicious ! 🙂
31
Andy, someone likes me more than thee. YOU got the red thumb, I’m still clean. 🙂
30
I agree,
Brilliant strategy by the Donald!
30
His ability to see things as they are, then seek rational solutions, is simply extraordinary.
00
14 Apr: CleanTechnica: Troubled Indian Wind Energy Company Suzlon Sells Solar Assets
by Saurabh
Suzlon Energy had other troubles as well. The company had millions of dollars of debt on its books largely due to the ill-timed acquisition of RePower (now Senvion). While Suzlon eventually sold off Senvion to US-based investors the Indian company’s troubled aggravated due to adverse policy environment and increased competition from domestic and foreign players like Inox Wind, Gamesa and GE Renewable Energy…
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/troubled-indian-wind-energy-company-suzlon-sells-solar-assets/
12 Apr: RenewEconomy: Australian wind project owners worried as Senvion faces insolvency
by Sophie Vorrath
https://reneweconomy.com.au/australian-wind-project-owners-worried-as-senvion-faces-insolvency-85419/
20
theirABC not jumping on this story??
15 Apr: 5CS Radio: Workers Sent Home as Contractor Files for Insolvency
Workers at the $480 million Lincoln Gap wind farm near Port Augusta have been sent home after International contractor Senvion filed for self-administration proceedings.
The company is reportedly entering a restructuring plan after talks with lenders failed…
The CFMEU says it had up to 100 members on the project that have been stood down with no word on when they can go back to work.
Lincoln Gap Wind Farm was to house 59 turbines, generating 212MW of electricity.
This devastating blow follows the collapse of SolarReserve’s proposed $650 million Aurora solar thermal project in Port Augusta.
https://www.5cs.com.au/news/local-news/86495-workers-sent-home-as-contractor-files-for-insolvency
40
This might be catching, in the link I posted #21 the engineer-journalist from South Africa refers to the tactics of investors into so called renewable energy getting out with a substantial profit leaving gullible shareholders with the problems.
30
Labor will provide “policy certainty” to ensure such failures do not occur on their watch. The unionists will keep their jobs and electricity prices will ratchet up as the subsidies reignite.
SA desperately need the high capacity link to NSW to support increased intermittents in that network as Vic link is often at maximum import. SA wind was curtailed for 12 hours to 9am Monday 15th.
20
14 Apr: Press&JournalUK: Fire crews attending large wildfire in Speyside windfarm
by David Walker
Fire crews are currently attending a large-scale gorse fire close to a Speyside wind farm.
UPDATE 16:08: Fire crews extinguished the fire at around 3.20pm after battling it for more than 15 hours.
UPDATE 12.35pm: Around 25 firefighters are tackling the fire at Paul’s Hill windfarm in Ballindalloch which continues to burn…
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/moray/1724008/fire-crews-attending-large-wildfire-in-speyside-windfarm/
20
13 Apr: S&P Global: Report: Macquarie fund seeking buyers for wind farm operator Renvico
by Angelee Tabios
A Macquarie Group Ltd.-owned infrastructure fund is seeking buyers for wind farm operator Renvico, Reuters reported, citing four sources with knowledge of the matter.
Renvico, which operates wind farms in Italy and France, could fetch up to €400 million, according to the report. The company was formed in 2015 after Sorgenia Green, the renewables business of Milan-based Sorgenia SpA, was acquired by MEIF 4 AX Holdings Sarl, ultimately owned by Macquarie European Infrastructure Fund IV LP…
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/2ddmjk6g7vknfhihrgtqcg2
13 Apr: Reuters: Macquarie kicks off sale of wind assets in Italy and France
by Stephen Jewkes
The Australian fund, advised by Rothschild, has sent out teasers and information memoranda will follow at the end of the month, two of the sources said.
Non-binding bids are expected by the end of May, one source said, but another said no time-frame had yet been set…
Macquarie was not immediately available to comment. Rothschild declined to comment…
Renvico, founded in 2015 when Macquarie bought the green energy business of Italy’s Sorgenia Group, manages wind farms in Italy and France with a total capacity of around 334 megawatts…
One of the sources said Renvico’s wind assets in France were owned by Macquarie alongside private equity firm KKR, adding that KKR had not yet decided what course to take.
https://www.reuters.com/article/renvico-ma-macquarie/macquarie-kicks-off-sale-of-wind-assets-in-italy-and-france-idUSL8N21T6DE
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15 Apr: TheCourier: Moorabool South wind farm construction near Fiskville causes worries about dust
by Alex Ford
Mount Wallace residents near the Moorabool South wind farm project are worried dust thrown up from construction work has contaminated their drinking supply with potentially dangerous chemicals.
Since construction began about 12 months ago, “miles” of access roads and powerline connections have been finished, and work on the foundations for the turbines is about to begin.
Janene Skidmore lives about a kilometre from the closest turbine, and said in that time, she has noticed the dust from the huge volume of truck traffic getting worse because of the dry conditions…
This dust has found its way to her water tanks.
“When they started digging, the dust came thick and fast,” she said.
The company building the wind farm, Goldwind Australia, agreed to install a water filter, but she was surprised to find that within a month, the filter was coated in green slime.
This was a problem affecting her neighbours, some of whom she said had signed agreements with the company – she has not, she added…READ ALL
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6042830/wind-farm-construction-dust-contamination-concerns/
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Sceptical Sam #1.2.2.1 above
Here is a link to former NSW Premier Kenneally’s husband’s EV recharge business interest …
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mr-keneally-chases-pay-day-from-car-policy-20100723-10or2.html
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Alan Finkel was Better Place’s Chief Technology Officer. It’s a very small coterie the renewables club.
Repealing the RET will immediately rid us of these fiscal parasites who will waste no time finding another host country’s economy to feed off just as the Better Place gang came home when Denmark stopped subsidising battery cars.
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11 Apr: ProjectSyndicate: The World Bank Must Change Course
by Bjorn Lomborg
The World Bank does a lot of important and effective work, especially in health and education, but its climate policies are poorly considered. The Bank’s new president, David Malpass, should refocus the institution on its core mission of eradicating poverty – including the energy poverty that wrecks so many lives…
In its most recent fiscal year, the Bank dished out nearly $67 billion in financing, investments, and guarantees. But under the “new course” set by its previous president, Jim Yong Kim, in 2016, the Bank aims to direct more than a quarter of its funding toward climate change. Moreover, thanks to Kim, the Bank insists that every single dollar it spends must take account of climate change, and it has ended financial support for coal-fired power plants…
The World Bank’s climate focus is also at odds with what the world’s poorest citizens want. When the United Nations asked almost ten million people around the world to list their priorities, they emphasized better education and health care, less corruption, more jobs, and affordable food. Global warming came last out of 16 issues…READ ALL
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/world-bank-president-climate-change-poverty-by-bjorn-lomborg-2019-04
14 Apr: CanadaFreePress: Extreme greens grouse, but African and other poor families see hop in David Malpass
Sanity and humanity return to the World Bank?
by Paul Driessen
Eco-imperialist, carbon colonialist policies by the World Bank and other anti-development banks have perpetuated needless energy deprivation, poverty, disease and early death in Africa, Asia…READ ON
https://canadafreepress.com/article/sanity-and-humanity-return-to-the-world-bank
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I’ve only heard second hand that Clive Palmer has promised to stump up arrears to the 4,000 employees he pooped upon years ago when he declared bankruptcy at Yabulu refinery, Townsville. With interest?
My source couldn’t say if there was a proviso like “If I get elected”. His hide is like an elephant’s. He also promised to reopen Yabulu nickel refinery, something he could have done anytime if his interest was genuine.
Transfield built a closed cycle gas plant at his fence and he pooped on them too. What it does mean is that Transfield can sell electricity to the refinery unseen by AEMO. He can’t claim high electricity prices keep the plant shut.
Is there a more despicable t0ad in our politics?
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In today’s NotalotofPeopleKnowThat
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
Timera Energy questions the 3 myths of batteries
While in theory batteries can be paired with renewables to smooth intermittent output, this does not represent a viable business model to support battery investment. There are three main reasons for this:
Duration: Investment is currently focused on 0.5-2.0 hour lithium-ion batteries, which are seeing the steepest & fastest cell cost declines. The short duration of these batteries significantly limits the volumes of energy that can be moved between time periods.
Degradation: A focus on shifting load requires deep cycling. This shortens the life of lithium-ion batteries and accelerates the costs of cell replacement, undermining project economics.
Returns: Cycling batteries to shift load is not commercially optimal. The returns from load shifting (e.g. full cycle to capture cheapest offpeak hour vs highest price peak hour) are well below those required to support investment.
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Is there any data available on the SA Hornsdale “big” battery?
Seems it is being used for frequency control, and generating revenue that way, rather than being used to supplement supply when wind varies.
NEMWEB shows it ramping up to 30 MW and down to zero almost every 5 minutes.
Given it is supposed to have capacity of 129 MWhr, and deliver up to 100 MW, why the 30 MW limit?
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Its a result of the contract agreement with the AEMO,..
..the battery must keep 70MW available for FCAS services, and are only permitted to use 30MW for load shifting. (Generating Revenue/ Money Harvesting !)
From here…
http://theconversation.com/yes-sas-battery-is-a-massive-battery-but-it-can-do-much-more-besides-88480
This report throws some light on the real contribution the Big Battery makes for FCAS, …
..basicly implying that it is not much more than a “experiment” to asses battery feasibility and performance,..when in realiry its actual contribution is minimal on a grid scale !
“Gonna need a bigger battery “ .!!
https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/sa-s-big-battery-a-look-at-its-performance/
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Sorry, i wanted to add this quote from that Energy council report linked above..
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I wasn’t aware there are so many working poor.
‘The Australian Council of Social Service (Acoss) estimates 38% of those living below the poverty line are in work and 15% of all people who work part-time are in poverty.’
Jericho/Guardian
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Socialism with Australian characteristics.
‘Victorian premier Daniel Andrews will attend Chinese president Xi Jinping’s forum to promote its controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure program next week, as Australia’s relationship with Beijing comes under fresh scrutiny ahead of the federal election.’
Fin Review
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Relax folks, according to the
high priestskeepers of the records of NZ’s temperature flux – mannipulated though they may be – Doctors Renwick & Salinger & Co. report there has been absolutely no existential catastrophic runaway warming whatsoever from 1998 to 2018 (20 years if all my fingers and toes are still attached and present) in our dear sweet little Shaky Isles of Jacinda-Mania:https://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/information-and-resources/nz-temp-record/seven-station-series-temperature-data
Their opening paragraph: “The warmest year since the start of this record in 1909 is the year 2016, with an annual mean temperature of 13.44°C, or +0.84°C above the 1981-2010 average. The year 2018 is ranked 2nd-equal warmest in the record, tied with 1998”.
a). Warmest year EVAH! since 1909 was 2016, aka El Niño Supremo Big-Big Fella Him Burny-Burny Hot Ouch!
b). 2018 tied with 1998, ie. 1998 to 2018 = flat trend line, zip zero nada, aka La Paws!
c). Out of 109 years of records, the 1981-2010 ‘average’ was used as a baseline to achieve the ‘mean’ of 2016 –
d). 2016’s mean was 13.44˚C . . . can you feeeeeeel the heat?
And another one of my complaints is (with apologies and respect to George Carlin, comedian/philosopher/non-believer, RIP) NZ used to have an 11 station series of temps which was modernised/disappeared/progressed into the present-day 7SS. Why, you ask? The old series included stations at The Chateau, halfway up Mt Ruapehu (snow-covered volcano), Molesworth Station (high country valley often freezing and snowed-in during winter – my other grandfather was a shepherd there pre-WW1), Queenstown Airport (alpine freezing snow) and Campbell Island (windswept sub-Antarctic rock).
The new-and-improved whizz-bang it’s-all-our-fault 7SS sites are now all, bar one, at or just above sea level and within spitting distance of said sea (Tasman and Pacific) and very close, if not within, built-up urban areas. But hey, just believe, the sci-fi cult is settled, the men in white coats have got our best interests at heart, you’re gonna burn in hell unless you pay up and do what the children say/yell/chant/scream, the TV told me so…
Rant over, I feel great now 🙂 might go for a blat in my 4WD diesel as it’s such a lovely, calm, pleasant, sunny day – thanks to climate change!
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Talking of the man himself – George Carlin ripping on eedjits who want to Save The Planet! in 8 minutes of hilarious satirical sage wisdom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c
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What about the Kiwis? How can they possibly survive with mean temperatures rising to above 13°C? Add another degree and they will clearly be burnt to a frizzle.
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That’s a great question… I’m glad you asked, Robber. Remember that
blacknon-whitelight- and gravity-challenged ‘hole’ recently imaged? The one that resembled a day-glo orange doughnut/donut/ring-shaped object? Pull back, zoom out, and marvel at the fiery chaotic beauty that is the M87 galaxy –https://www.reddit.com/r/Amoledbackgrounds/comments/bbugs8/zoomed_out_image_of_the_new_black_hole_1242x2688/
If that’s not a “burnt to a frizzle” kiwi bird then I’m an Apterygidae Apteryx australis. As for us Kiwis, crank it up, give us humans some heat please!
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Hagai Sophia to become a Mosque again.
https://www.voanews.com/a/erdogan-time-has-come-for-hagia-sophia-to-be-a-mosque-/4851038.html
For a country that needs Tourists this seems to be a negative proposal, a vote catching ploy and a thoroughly disastrous move by Erdogan.
As a place of worship for two millennia and OPEN to all, to become a Mosque becoming a no go place for many cannot be good.
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