The biggest changes in temperature (“divergence” in dark red brown Fig 6) occurred where the most people lived (blue dots). In the 60 years to 2010 China was reported to have warmed by 0.79 ± 0.10 °C. However Scafetta et al calculate at most, China could have experienced a real warming of only 0.46 ± 0.13 °C.
Somehow the combined might and supercomputers at NOAA, NASA, Hadley and the Bureau of Met experts all missed this.
It’s another third of a degree gone from the Glorious CO2 Narrative. Just like that.
Fig. 6. Map of the divergence (ΔTMin − ΔTMax) between the warmings registered by the minimum and maximum temperature records (CRU TS4) between 1945 and 1954 and 2005–2014. The cyan dots indicate the 200 most populated cities in China according to the Free World City Database. (White regions over India and the ocean indicate missing data).
Is there a more perfect nation to study the Urban Heat Island effect than China?
The worlds most populous nation has made a blistering transformation in two decades. As recently as 1995 the population was 75% rural. Now it’s approaching 60% urban. Shenzhen, which is near Hong Kong, grew from 3000 people in 1950 to more than 10 million in 2010. Around Beijing, thousands of towns have been built in a networked carpet, each a mere 2km apart (zoom in on Google satellite view). The stations in these areas are effectively not rural anymore.
Prof Nicola Scafetta and Shenghui Ouyang wondered how this massive growth affected the temperatures. They discovered the regions that warmed the fastest were also the largest population centers. Proving the warming might be “man-made” but nearly half the warming is due to heated concrete and all the assorted infrastructure and industry around thermometers. That part is not CO2.
There would be more CO2 produced from those population centres too, but we all know that given five minutes CO2 will split for Tahiti or Siberia, or anywhere. In any case, Scaffeta et al compared what the top greenhouse models driven by CO2 predicted. And lo, the models were totally wrong. The CMIP5 set projected that CO2 would warm all of China roughly equally.
The research duo looked at the minima, the maxima, the seasonal and monthly patterns, and in pretty much every case, the warmth follows the same pattern we’d expect if it was caused by human industry. The minimums rose more than the maximums. The biggest warming effect comes in the coolest part of the day and in the coolest half of the year — and it’s a toss up whether China has even warmed at all since 1940. The nights are hotter, but the days are colder than they used to be — inasmuch as anyone has any idea at all what the temperature would really have been.
The Climate models (CMIP5) have barely any ability to predict future maxima and minima…
Fig. 5. (Left) Tmax and (Right) Tmin. The maps show the 2005–2014 mean value minus 1945–1954 mean value. (top) Temperature observations (CRU TS4) and (bottom) full CMIP5 GCM mean ensemble simulation. The maps are centered over China. The hatching represents areas where the signal is smaller than one standard deviation of natural variability (e.g. the value is nearly zero).
…
Compare the models to the measurements:
And notice how hot China was in the daytime in 1940? I don’t see how that can last.
:Fig. 9. [A] CRU TS4 Tmax and Tmin near-surface annual average temperature records. [B] CMIP5 maximum, mean and minimum near-surface annual ensemble average temperature records. Region [112°–120°E:32°–40°N]. The red segments indicate the mean values, T1 and T2, in the 1945–1954 and 2005–2014 decades.
The population doubled, doubled, and doubled again
Beijing that increased from 1.7 million in 1950 to 18.4 million in 2015. It grew by about 11 times in 65 years.
ig. 12. [A] Population density in China (2000). Mapping prepared by Beijing City Lab (http://longy.jimdo.com). [B] Urban agglomeration population increase in China from 1950 to 1990, from 1990 to 2015 and the projected population increase between 2015 and 2035. Data from United Nations 2018.
Thanks to Nicola Scafetta. See also posts on Tallblokes and Paul Homewood’s site Notalotofpeopleknowthat.
Models get a n honorable mention.
“Scaffeta et al compared what the top greenhouse models driven by CO2 predicted. And lo, the models were totally wrong”.
As should be when there’s No Core Mechanism involved.
It’s like saying that humans don’t require a heart beat or blood pressure to function.
CO2 levels are an irrelevance compared to the overwhelming fact that Earth’s temperature is driven by the rising and setting of the Sun and the longer term processes of axial tilt and precession. A very rough initial quantification of the possibilities provided by the Human element is given by the “Spanish” analogy.
Someone once stated that All of the Earth’s cities, towns and villages could fit inside the borders of Spain.
That leaves an awful lot of vacant land and sea to be “heated”.
The so called “models are a U.N. Advertising gimic.
KK
191
Speaking of other silly things….just wait a few years and these scientists can have all the cooling they can handle…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-07-24/climate-hacking-to-avoid-a-global-warming-apocalypse/11300460
“t’s 2030 — a bit over 10 years from now — and a fleet of modified cargo planes take off carrying an unusual payload.
They’re headed 20 kilometres up — way above where existing commercial aircraft fly — where they will spray tonnes of sulfate particles into the stratosphere.
“By the end of the century special planes like this will be making 300,000 flights a year to deliver millions of tonnes of sulfate particles to reflect sunlight.
“It’s a last-ditch effort to save the world from dangerous warming because we haven’t been able to get our greenhouse emissions under control.
“You might think this giant planetary sunshade sounds far-fetched, but some scientists starting to research this technology think we may well need such “a brutally ugly technical fix”.
“However others argue that such a speculative technology — known as “stratospheric aerosol injection” — poses even greater risks than climate change itself.
………….
“Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is the most researched of a suite of technologies aimed at cooling the Earth known as “solar geoengineering”.
“Other forms of geoengineering aim to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere — using anything from fans to forests.
SAI was inspired by the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions such as the 1991 explosion of Mount Pinotubo.
“Volcanic eruptions shoot sulfur dioxide up into the stratosphere where it forms tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that float around the globe for a year or two acting like tiny mirrors to reflect sunlight.
40
Not just China’s UHI but also the USA and EU must have a large UHI effect.
40
OK, I’ll bite. I’ve heard this before. Picture me stupid, but is this true?
30
Great post, Jo. UHI is the [snip] in the woodpile. It raises the average temperature while the maxima stay the same or drop but we still get an “upward trend” that is never explained to the masses. The message is slowly starting to get through, no matter how much the “consensus” says otherwise.
(PS being in Italy gave me first off the rank. Gratzi.)
*** [Sorry, Snipped the 6 comment chat of how KK pipped you! Too off topic for #1 – Jo]
163
My great grandmother and I were recently discussing a possible name change from KK. We thought that Kool Kalm Keith might be interesting but have shelved that.
Soon. Tending towards my current status, Old.
OK
80
I’d prefer you go for the KO
11
KO! Knock Out?
00
Just don’t put the “o” between the two “k”s.
50
So, perhaps the closest correlation we’ll be able to find is between the consensus climate models and the published Chinese Economic models. The results are equally inflated and the data is equally murky. We’ve replaced the year of the lion, or the chicken, or the lizard, or whatever, with the imperial perpetual year of the hottestevah. I think that’s a unicorn with a sweatband and a nike logo holding up an energy drink.
170
… and what of that evil, green, taxable gas of global warming greenhouses, (shudder) … carbon (sic)?
NASA Happily Reports the Earth is Greener, With More Trees Than 20 Years Ago–and It’s Thanks to China, India
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/nasa-says-earth-is-greener-than-ever-thanks-to-china-and-india/?edf=860
Regulations haven’t slowed China’s growing methane emissions
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2019/01/29/Regulations-havent-slowed-Chinas-growing-methane-emissions/2581548781889/?sl=1
BEIJING (Reuters) – China added 194 million tonnes of coal mining capacity in 2018, data from the energy bureau showed on Tuesday, despite vows to eliminate excess capacity in the sector and to reduce fossil fuel consumption.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-coal/china-boosts-coal-mining-capacity-despite-climate-pledges-idUSKCN1R712Z
>> If you are riding your pushbike to work to save the planet from doomsday global warming, you might want to think about that, and push a little harder.
120
And if riding a pushbike in Xizang / Western China – or as we carbonated Westies call it, Tibet – you may want to dress as Greta does in padded ski-jacket and gloves and beanie and scarf… and maybe carry skis and a shovel just in case of an *emergency*:
https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/china?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.last7days
High summer on the Roof of the World (average elevation 4,000 metres / 12,500 feet) yet in the past week 10-20 cms of
acid rainsnow has fallen widely across the plateau and the Hi-MAAL-aya of Nepal / India and all the stans in the neighbourhood to the north-west.Chomolungma ཇོ་མོ་གླང་མ / Sagarmatha सगरमाथा / Mt Everest’s Ordovician limestone summit cap is just one more pin in the voodoo doll of Scuttled Séance dogma: what used to be sea bed at the bottom of the Tethys Sea is now the snow and ice-capped peak of the world’s highest mountain… we didn’t do it.
100
Travis, CH4 has nothing to do with burning of coal. Also CH4 is not a significant greenhouse gas. It is a lie that it is more significant than CO2 plus there is only 1.7ppm in the atomosphere compared to the tiny amount of 400ppm for CO2.
70
OT: I have added both Curry and Morano to my education collections:
http://ccdedu.blogspot.com
Morano has a cool video with over 10 million views.
111
So once again, plenty of evidence but for the wrong thing?
I’d ask for the real critical thinker to stand up and be recognized except that critical thinkers in the climate change crowd seem to be (sadly) lacking.
150
And I bet that all of you thought you were rid of the site joker. But rumors of my demise are, as Mark Twain said, greatly exaggerated.
121
I’m glad you hadn’t been abducted either.
Cheers
Dave B
100
Whats the UHI like at Area 51 Roy?
70
I fear that if an attempt to storm Area-51 were to be made, more than a few of them would get themselves shot. Those who got in would probably find out what a UFO abductee feels like, even though no UFOs or aliens are kept there.
I don’t know much about the place but it’s certainly an advanced weapons proving ground. Judging from the location of the first F-117 crash that I know about, 51 is where the F-117 was test flown, all done after dark since that’s the environment the stealth fighter was designed to operate in.
You find aliens in Roswell, New Mexico. Most of them will be wearing their human suits, making them look like UFO nut cases so they blend into the rest of the crowd.
40
Think about movement between the stars in realistic terms for a moment. The nearest star to Earth is Alpha Centauri, about 4.5 light-years away.
A light-year, as I’m sure you know is the distance light can travel in one year at 186,282 miles/SECOND. Now multiply that out and you’ll have a distance you can’t get your mind around.
Now ask yourself what the requirements of making that trip are. It blows every fuse in my head to even begin to believe such a journey is possible BY ANYONE. The fuel required works out to be more than the entire mass of your starship using any means of propulsion I know anything about.
I went through this exercise for the novel I started and still hope to complete this year. It took some very creative revision of not just the laws of physics but the universe itself to come up with something I think I can make credible in a story. You can’t just say jump off to Alpha Centauri, you have to say how. Your means of travel has to have rules and limitations if it’s to be credible because that’s the way things are — ALWAYS.
No, there are no UFOs or alien bodies in Area-51 or Roswell.
40
That doesn’t mean there are no UFOs. It only means they are not extra terrestrial.
I have one UFO sighting to my credit. I was descending toward my destination airport to land when I saw something climbing up to meat me and we were closing fast. I began a right turn to avoid but it was quickly apparent that we would miss each other by a safe margin so I aborted the turn and watched it come at me. It’s speed alone, easily twice anything I expected to meet, puzzled me. And as it whizzed by me I did not recognize anything about it. To this day I have no guess as to what it was.
A UFO, yes. But I never attributed it to anything but bad viewing circumstances and surprise.
40
the USAF was doing a lot of experiments from the end of the second world war onwards with balloons of all sizes and finishes — metallized ones could have been for radar targets, for example.
Who says they don’t still experiment with them? They’re cheap and perhaps not so dangerous … but capable of carrying instruments.
Never heard of or seen a UFO in NZ. I’ve often wondered what’s in the air in the ConUS 🙂 where so many are reported.
So I can’t claim a UFO for myself but I did see something interesting about fifty years ago. I put it down then, and still do, to an atmospheric effect. Only saw it the once.
It was a very high altitude lensing effect at the centre of a very large and strong anti-cyclone. Totally transparent. There were more stars visible in the `lense’ than outside it — it was early evening, still light. Cigar-shaped, of course. Aligned east west or west east and moving quite quickly north-south.
How is the book coming on? (see GD’s note below 😉 )
Closest star to earth is Proxima Centauri (hence the name `proxima’ or nearest) at 4.244 ly or 1.301 pc (parsecs). umm, let’s see: c. 1.2 trillion miles (c. 1.9 trillion km). Yep. That’s why astronomers invented big measures such as ly and pc (parsecs) 🙂 I can’t think in trillions very easily even if they are only 10^12. And my calculator doesn’t like measurements like that either: it has to `think’ about them.
30
the random your comment is awaiting moderation script has struck again. My response to Ray — #6.1.2.1.1 — 😛
Maybe it doesn’t like any discussion about:
1. UFOs
2. atmospheric effects,
3. books
4. NZ
5. proxima centauri
… and I didn’t use the fr**d word once! 🙂
30
Sophocles,
It was exactly such a balloon that crashed in Roswell. Of course it was not trailing the usual instruments used for meteorological measurements but a homemade radar reflector made of balsa wood and metal foil taped together with locally bought tape that happened to have a pattern on the back side of the tape.
I used to watch all the UFO stuff popular on TV in the ’70s and I saw an interview of one of the men involved in the project. When shown the photos of the supposed UFO wreckage he said, “Yes. That’s exactly what we were flying.”
The crashed “UFO” was an experiment to see how well radar could track such a balloon.
But in keeping with my theory, nothing stays around longer than a bad idea. So now UFOs have landed and nothing can change that.
10
Put it on Amazon and I’m a customer. Have you got a synopsis you can tantalize us with?
30
It’s called, THE GREAT INVISIBLE WAR and deals with the events that are set in motion when aliens fleeing from the destruction of their planet arrive at Earth after about 700 years in space and find that during their long journey their once disciplined shipboard society has deteriorated to the point of internal strife so serious that the captain who has maintained control over 1/4 of the starship is unwilling to go ahead with their original plan to take over Earth.
In the meantime they have become integrated into Earth society as they began to learn about humans and a war for Earth begins that few on Earth ever see evidence of, begins with both species hanging in the balance. Hence the name, THE GREAT INVISIBLE WAR.
I don’t know how my solution to save both species will be received and I don’t give previews. It will either be a riveting read or a literary joke. But it’s been lots of fun.
30
I should know better than to allow myself to be distracted when trying to write. That second paragraph has one “begins” too many and should read…
20
And for some reason there’s one dissenter. I know it’s a bit hard to believe that Mr. Twain anticipated my need to quote him and said exactly the words I would need in the long ago past. But there it is in black and white.
I could wish for just one red thumb with the wit behind it that Mark Twain had. Sigh…
40
Around the area
“Developing nations latest decade of energy & emissions growth torpedoes alarmist global emissions control scam”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/23/developing-nations-latest-decade-of-energy-emissions-growth-torpedoes-alarmist-global-emissions-control-scam/
70
UHI is clearly the most obvious influence on temperatures that it is mind boggling that more people don’t recognise it as probably the major influence. I have always contented that where adjustments to historical temperatures has been to reduce past temperatures and increase more recent data it is counterintuitive to what happens to temperatures with a more populous and concrete society. Ironically when one realises the direct impact of CO2 on greening the world in recent years one could argue that CO2 has a cooling impact on a world warmed by increasingly concentrated population. The alarmists can’t see the concrete for the trees and the UHI is the most obvious answer when assessing mans influence on temperatures.
I hope that more scientists investigate the UHI affect on historical data and if it’s impact is properly assessed I believe the warming trend could almost disappear if the data was adjusted properly to take this into account.
70
Back in the good old days, pre-Hansen-Mann-Lewandowsky et al., when meteorologists were, well, meteorologists not politricksters, our gatekeepers of weather stats based these isles’ temperatures on eleven stations (11SS). In today’s post-scientific age, that number has been reduced to seven (7SS), of which six (6) are close to urban areas and barely above sea level.
Gee, wonder which stations got ‘disappeared’: Chateau, Mt Ruapehu (volcano); Molesworth (high country sheep station); Queenstown (400m asl in the mountains); Campbell Island (halfway to Antarctica) and bingo! Panic! NZ’s warmed “by about 1˚C” so sayeth Dr Jim-jim Salinger and Dr Jim-jam Renwick – just don’t mention the word ‘Climategate’ in front of the children, please.
100
DeFreitas Dedekind and Brill didn’t agree.
Their paper published 2014 A Reanalysis of Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Trends in New Zealand applied the method set out by Rhoades and Salinger (1993) to correct for `shelter contaminated data‘ exactly as they describe.
NIWA, the “custodians” of the data had never applied it and had been reporting c. 1°C to HMNZ Govt.
According to the authors of this paper, applying the protocol for the first time:
Our analysis, which uses updated measurement techniques and corrects for shelter-contaminated data, produces a trend of 0.28 °Cper century.
So Dr Jim-jim came up with the correction method, never applied it and reported fictional warming to the NZ Govt. DeFreitas et al, applied the Rhoades and Salinger correction method and found 0.28° warming.
Naughty Dr Jim-jim. Maybe that was one of the reasons NIWA dismissed him?
60
OH NO not …Dr Jim S again! is he still around saying allot of rubbish like he always does ?
30
And still sounding half-cut and/or slightly over-medicated, or maybe that’s just his permanent Cheshire cat grin. As for the other mad doktor, Renwick, a buddy’s son studied Enviro ‘n’ Mental Séance under him and came out believing CO₂ = D’evil. Then again, his mum was Australian so maybe that was half the problem 🙂
Re sophocles’ de Freitas 2014 paper: “we have derived a mean land surface air temperature trend for New Zealand over the past century of 0.28 ± 0.29 °C per century, which is considerably less than the S81/M10 value of 0.91 ± 0.30 °C per century”. Meh, it’s only a 200% mark-up, no one will notice…
When Trinidad-born and Canada-educated Chris de Freitas (head of science & tech at Akld Uni) died 2 years ago, the Warmistas laid into him for de Nying their 97%
consensusCCCrap and even while alive, he was shunned and abused for following the scientific method and therefore finding those97%77 social scientists irrelevant. If you’re brave, here’s a rant session from the Loonies back in 2016 after de Freitas stood his ground against Canterbury sociologist Jarrod Gilbert’s childish name-calling psycho-babble:https://thestandard.org.nz/chris-de-freitas-now-is-the-time-to-be-afraid/
* Mods, delete above link if it doesn’t fit your high standard of blog-worthiness: these so-called Greenies and saviours of the earth aren’t a very peaceable, nor polite, bunch of troglodytes at all!
30
Yes I was aware of him being a grad of that Uni.
10
if anyone is good at sorting email into categories such as:
SCAM:
WORTHLESS:
POLITICAL BS:
NONSENSE:
SLIGHTLY INTERESTING:
INTERESTING:
CRITICAL IMPORTANCE:
FUN TO READ:
FUN TO PASS ON TO THE NEXT POOR SUCKER:
BLOCK THIS SENDER:
REPORT TO THE FBI:
I have a very long list and the pay is just peanuts but I’m already tired of sorting it all out so volunteers would be very welcome. OR, some sharp programmer who could make a workable spam filter might also find just the challenge he’s looking for. Oops! Maybe not that since it’s already been proven that artificial intelligence can’t do the job.
And just to keep it on topic I’ll light a fire so the urban heat island effect can be preserved.
80
Roy, doing that depends to a large extent on the operating system you use and what e-mail client.
First thing is to get an e-mail client that allows you to setup keyword filters. If you don’t have that you will be inundated with all the crap.
40
Since the really egregious stuff is so obvious it’s easy to manually delete groups of messages.
But then there are unsolicited messages that I might be interested in or not…
40
Roy,
I use Mozilla Thunderbird for my email client. It has a very good sorting sub mailbox method that can go along way toward capturing the items at and below INTERESTING on your list. I can’t remember when I started using it but its been well over a decade.
The Thunderbird spam filter does an exceptionally good job of sorting out every thing above INTERESTING on your list. It does need a bit of training but its easy to do and it becomes, in my experience, very smart very quickly.
Before I delete the spam, I usually scan the subject list. Rarely do I find anything worth restoring and only a little less rarely do I find something worth looking into more deeply.
50
I could do much the same thing but it’s detailed to set up and then you run across the keyword in the wrong email message and there goes the setup.
It works much better if you can base it on who the sender is and I get stuff from my broker straight into a dedicated folder. Works like a charm there.
My real problem is that I have been away about 6 weeks and the inbox looks like a disaster. Once I get control of that again I’ll be OK.
50
You can easily do what you want using Thunderbird. Agreed that it is a bit of bother to setup but, once done, it works great.
You can select multiple parts of the email to search and then look for a key word or phrase. Such as in Sender, Subject, Body etc. Added to that are logical operations on the search items. It can be quite powerful but even simple searches can be very useful.
40
Beijing has suspected all along that UHI was distorting temperatures and that CO2 has no part to play.
‘Urban heat island (UHI) is a major anthropogenic alteration on Earth environments and its geospatial pattern remains poorly understood over large areas. Using MODIS data from 2003 to 2011, we quantified the diurnal and seasonal surface UHI intensity (SUHII, urban–suburban temperature difference) in China’s 32 major cities, and analyzed their spatial variations and possible underlying mechanisms. Results show that the annual mean SUHII varied markedly from 0.01 to 1.87 °C in the day and 0.35 to 1.95 °C at night, with a great deal of spatial heterogeneities.’
Zhou et al 2019
110
The logic should be dont include any city/urban temp data in any survey or record. Its like using the temperature of your kitchen after cooking a meal for the temperature of your whole house.
30
I watched Their ABC weather last night showing a trend for temperature in Sydney(which they said was “climate change of course )and was wondering how they calculate that after deducting UHI trends..does anyone know ?
100
Guesstimate would be the leading contender as is typical with anything to do with global warming/climate change/ climate alarm/ what ever it is being called today.
70
No they have no idea Dr.
It’s all fiddled data and
Guesswork
By ‘supercomputers’
To support the myth that the BOM
Propagates to keep folks nervous.
Utter bloody imcompetents !
90
We may have ‘supercomputers’ but do we have ‘super-programmers’ to drive them.
51
First you must assume that it is warmer than it has been in the last
10,000100,000500,000years. Increase figure as you like.Then you assume that man-made CO2 causes this warmth.
Then you assume that warmth is a disaster for humans.
Then you assume that the opposition is the fault of oil & coal companies funding far-right extremists (headed by Tony Abbott) like you and me.
The first is nonsense. Just Google (temperature last 10,000 years images). Suggest this to AGW believers.
The third somehow ignores that the vast majority of humans live in the tropics. I suggested once that the reality of AGW could be measured by the ratio of northern europeans spending their summer holidays on Svalbard divided by the numbers heading for the Mediterranean.
The fourth is fantasy as anyone not suffering from dementia & employed by the ABC realises. It probably arrises from the failure of Federal governments will give them much more money, despite their political bent.
That leaves the second, which most here don’t believe. There is little evidence to prove this, and what there is comes from altered records or lines drawn on a computers screen. That we oppose hysteria, and the dismantling of society in search of a chimera enrages them.
Meanwhile our gullible politicians, who know nothing but believe the latest poll (whatever the slant) are doing nothing except throw millions away (440 millions in one chunk, now thought to be on a luxury yacht near the Great Barrier Reef.) Time to start bombarding them with questions.
120
Graeme III, you got any coordinates for that “luxury yacht near the Great Barrier Reef”? sophocles and I are heading that way on his neighbour’s fork-hoist to help TdeF ‘re-position’ some of them thar gold bars from down in the hold of said luxury 444 gazillion gin palace. Arr me hearties, to the breach!
80
To start with the observatory at Observatory Hill Sydney is located alongside the Harbour Bridge and is surrounded by buildings and roadways.
When constructed the Observatory was on an isolated peninsular.
110
I prefer the term heat contamination to UHI because a lot of it, perhaps most, occurs in non-urban areas, where urban is defined by cities. I live in a relatively rural area but it is experiencing rapid growth. The temperature box is by the little airport. Twenty years ago this was a grassy field. Now it is surrounded by malls, office complexes and pavement. That the population is still less than thirty thousand does not change that impact.
There are studies factoring out cities that still show warming, but the artificial warming is not confined to the cities. Rural warming may well exceed urban warming.
100
There’s another question…
Why bother about old temps at all since they are the product of cloud conditions as much as of anything else? Of course there’s a spike for Chinese maxima in the early 1940s. There was killing drought in 1942-3, so lots less cloud to repress temps at potential maximum time of day. As for those minima, from the late sixties to 2000 there was a bit more rain overall in China (National Rainfall Index). So maybe more evening cloud explains higher minima in that same period.
Okay, you might determine something from old recorded temps, but not much.
Another futility of statistics: why lump together the figures for temps, rain etc within large political entities as if they were geographical or climate entities? South Western Australia’s conditions have nothing to do with those of NE Qld. The only thing these regions have in common is that they are part of the Commonwealth of Australia. Averaging out between the two only leads to distortions, just like when you average out min/max in a cloudy period and min/max in a dry period and come up with the same average. The numbers may be exact but they mean nothing.
Statistics are so lame. Lame things can be helpful…but only if they are themselves helped along by considerate humans.
90
mosomoso:
Remember Disraeli? There are lies, damn lies and statistics.
70
An important point Mosomoso, science is Not the measurement of transient random micro incidents that abound in Nature.
In the same way. “Models” are not about loose association of various factors that just happen to be standing close to each other. Models must have a core mechanism.
KK
60
30 May: SustainabilityTimes: World’s warming cities are making their own clouds
By Laureen Fagan
Natalie Theeuwes at the University of Reading in the UK studies the urban heat island, the term for what scientists have known for decades: cities tend to be hotter than surrounding countryside…
They published the results of their study in Nature npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (LINK) in May, adding to critical knowledge in the context of climate change and global warming about cities and how heat will shape their future…
Right now there are 33 megacities on the planet, defined by the United Nations as cities or urban regions where more than 10 million people live. That’s expected to grow to 43 by 2030, especially in Asia and Africa. India’s New Delhi, for example, will pass Tokyo as the largest city on the planet by then…
Scientists find that overnight low temperatures are rising faster than they are in the daytime, with the hottest night ever recorded on the planet – in ***Oman at 42.6C – occurring just last June. It adds to concern that cities are getting less of a cool respite, and it’s one more reason why it’s important to understand urban heat, why cities appear to be making their own clouds, and how they contribute to impacts we may expect in the future.
https://www.sustainability-times.com/clean-cities/worlds-warming-cities-are-making-their-own-clouds/
1 Jul 2018: Accuweather: Oman records highest 24-hour minimum temperature in history
By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
The coastal city of Quriyat, Oman may have set the all-time highest minimum temperature for a 24-hour period within the past week.
The event in question happened on Tuesday as the temperature only fell to 42.6 C (108.7 F) during a 24-hour period.
This would break the previous record of 41.9 C (107.4 F), which also was reported in Oman back in 2011.
What makes this record even more amazing still is that the temperature remained above that previous record for more than 48 straight hours as a strong offshore wind prevailed across the region…
Quriyat lies on the coast of Oman, so wind direction has a huge influence on the weather. An offshore flow from the arid interior of Oman and southern Saudi Arabia will result in extreme warmth and low dew points.
A shift to onshore flow from the Gulf of Oman can cause temperatures tumble but dew points to soar dramatically.
The city can go from extreme dry heat to hot and sultry within a matter of an hour or two due to its unique location
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/international/oman-records-highest-24-hour-minimum-temperature-in-history/70005364
CHARTS: WorldWeatherOnline: Qurayat Monthly Climate Averages
Max, Min and Average Temperature
https://www.worldweatheronline.com/qurayat-weather-averages/masqat/om.aspx
60
19 Jul 2018: ABC: Why temperatures at night are going up around the world and what we can do about it
ABC Weather By Kate Doyle
History was made in the Middle East on June 28 when the world’s hottest night on record was set in ***Quriyat, Oman with the overnight “low” dropping to 42.6 degrees Celsius.
Oman’s hot night is just one of many temperature records to be smashed in the past few weeks (LINK WaPo Jason Samenow: Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week)…
Individual location records have been broken in the US, Russia, Canada, Scotland, Armenia and Georgia…
Africa could have reached its highest ever reliably recorded temperature of 51.3C in Ourargla, Algeria on July 5.
The World Meteorological Organisation recognises 55C as the highest temperature for Africa, recorded at Kebili, Tunisia on July 7, 1931.
***But there is widespread scepticism about the record’s accuracy because the temperatures recorded before the 1950s are mysteriously higher than anything to have come after them…
Over the past few weeks Canada has been experiencing summer heatwaves, with local news outlets now reporting up to ***70 heat-related deaths (LINK ***QUEBEC ARTICLE)…
Australia is not immune from warmer nights — our night-time temperatures have been increasing over the past 50 years (LINK BoM) and they are expected to continue to rise…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/nights-getting-hotter-climate-change-has-deadly-consequences/9985340
Wikipedia: 2018 North American heat wave
As of 10 July, seventy-four people, most of them already ill, had died heat-related deaths in ***QUEBEC. This province’s death toll is reported as much higher than others’ because of its looser rules for attributing death to heat. In Ontario, where only accidental deaths directly caused by heat are counted, the coroner’s office is investigating three possible cases…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_American_heat_wave#Quebec_and_Ontario
WaPo is behind paywall, but reproduced here in full:
5 Jul 2018: NZ Herald: WaPo: Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week
By Jason Samenow
Large areas of heat pressure or heat domes scattered around the hemisphere led to the sweltering temperatures.
No single record, in isolation, can be attributed to global warming. But collectively, these heat records are consistent with the kind of extremes we expect to see increase in a warming world…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12083394
31
Could be why the Arctic sea ice is refusing to melt this ‘summer’. And the freezing snow in South Africa. And the Caucasus. Eastern Russia and Western China. The Andes. Your Alps and our Alps. Carbon [sic] now causes worldwide Sweltering Snowfalls!
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom (2 m Temp Anomalies)
+0.2˚C World
-0.2˚C Southern Hemisphere
-0.9˚C Antarctica
+0.5˚C Northern Hemis-FEAR!
80
http://cam.tiffindell.co.za/webcams
3 a.m. in South Africa yet the webcams are picking up images of what appears to be frozen white fluffy stuff pelting down out of the sky. Give it 4 or 5 hours and the updated pics at dawn could be quite revealing…
70
And speaking of
Global WarmingClimate ChangeClimate WeirdingClimate Catastrophe, this from the Weather Channel:Record Cold in July: Unusually Strong Midsummer Cold Front Refreshes Plains, South
A cold front has taken an unusually far southward plunge by late-July standards. This has brought cooler, less-humid air as far south as parts of the Gulf Coast and Texas. Daily record-low temperatures may be set through Friday morning. An unusually potent push of cool, dry air by late-July standards will set daily record lows across the Plains and South this week, a welcome break from summer’s heat and humidity.
…
Usually this time of year, only the northern tier of states enjoys heat relief, while the South continues to sear. But the weather pattern this week is anything but typical and is giving the heat-weary South something to cheer about. The atmospheric ingredients bringing unusually cool, dry air by late-July standards into the Plains and South. Instead of its usual midsummer location in the northern U.S., the jet stream is plunging sharply into the East and South this week, pulling cooler and drier air deep into the South. You can see the more comfortable, less-humid air flowing into the South on our current dew-point map.
…
https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2019-07-23-record-july-cold-plains-south
80
At least xkcd got it right for the US with his ‘catch all’ weather map. https://xkcd.com/2179/
10
70s (F) in the “northern” tier of US states in JULY is not common. 50s and 60s (F) at night in JULY is not common. It is closer to early June weather, or late September.
(All temps herein are in F, marked so or not.)
BTW – early June in the above areas, June in total, really, was quite cool and extremely wet.
Northern New York, Connecticut, Vermont and New Hampshire – and in the northeastern mountains, maybe 70s during the day and 50s-60s at night is at least not uncommon, if not common, in July. But I think it does get a bit warmer on average than the cool temps prevailing now. But not across the Great Lakes – Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.
Of course, these temps are far more preferable to the residents than the 90+ (F) degrees with 90+% humidity. That weather pattern is not fun.
20
An interesting observation, but it does not invalidate anything. The premise that the models got it wrong, implies that the models should have predicted the growth of those urban environments. This is nonsense
119
“The premise that the models got it wrong, implies that the models should have predicted the growth of those urban environments.”
Actually, the premise that the models got it wrong implies that the models do not account for something that has a significant impact on the Climate, UHI. Missing or poorly understood things that impact the Climate along with the inherent Chaotic nature of the Climate are major reasons why the models are not fit for purpose.
180
No – the model is designed with very large gridded cells, each using parameters generated from recorded observations (ie historical data). They then run forward. Changes to temperatures etc due massive growth of cities would not be included, because how? Secondly, fit for purpose – what are you expecting from these climate models? Like all models they function as a guide, they never have been, nor are they designed to :- tell you the temperature on a particular day in the future. For a start, they use a only a subset of all the weather data. you appear to be confusing weather and climate, which is par for the comments on this blog
119
Wrong again Peter F,
For the Climate Model™ are inaccurate, giving unrealistic results because they do NOT run on basic physics and math — they are fudged to give results the programmers and their overlords wish them to give …
NOAA’s stark admission —
and
and
If NOAA doesn’t know how to quantify, qualify, and understand the basic laws and math that rule what/how atmospheric water acts, then NO Climate Model™ CAN either. The programmers are tasked with programming from ignorance!
How can anyone (even dumb cAGW activists) think that any Climate Model™ can do even a slightly adequate job when the basics of this planet’s major weather/climate element, atmospheric water, is so poorly quantified and understood.
90
Link — https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/greenhouse-gases.php?section=watervapor
81
You mistake the difference between a weather model, and a climate model. For starters, do you think that climate modelers are unaware of the uncertainties is some of their calculations. However, a model is still the best tool we have to look at climate. Mostly ist is just that your model is giving a different output than that of the professionals. And if you think that you do not have a model, how else can you critique the published ones?
112
Gigo, can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.
110
“However, a model is still the best tool we have to look at climate.”
Its also the WORST for any long term prediction, because they have been PROVEN to be perpetually WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.
They are basically WORSE THAN USELESS.
90
beththesurf
“Gigo, can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.”
Seems you can
https://libraries.mit.edu/_archives/exhibits/purse/
50
Peter Fitzroy,
NO I have not made any mistake about these Climate Models™.
You are the one making mistakes, it seems to be your raison d’être. You, with all ridiculous belief that Climate Models™ are satisfactory for ‘scenario projections’ (aka predictions and forecasts) for more than a weeks time — utter piffle. They are not and never have been.
If you can not accurately model water in the atmosphere you CAN NOT forecast weather or climate. Water is the major influences affecting the way the naturally climate changes — that and the sun.
The Climate Models™ are the best tools for people who wish to be cAGW tools!
50
Goes ter show, Ian,:) doesn’t pay ter be too cocksure. Like those modellers. (in cloud towers) that think they can match those interactive complex atmospheric and oceanic systems.
https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/christy_dec8.jpg
30
You are making CLUELESS ranting noises again, PF.
Based only on what someone has told you to say.
You know NOTHING of how the models work, otherwise you would reject them out of hand.
They are based FIRMLY on UNPROVEN anti-science nonsense, such as warming by atmospheric CO2, yet leave out major drivers like the Sun and the clouds.
We are STILL WAITING for you to produce such empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2, but you KNOW that you cannot.
All you can do is sit in the corner, in your normal mind-numbed catatonic state, reciting gibberish anti-science AGW mantra.
40
“No – the model is designed with very large gridded cells”
True, this makes them even more inaccurate than weather models. Also, they don’t use “large gridded cells” because they are climate models, they use “large gridded cells” because if they didn’t, the models would run for unreasonable amounts of time. The push for ever faster computers to run Climate Models is based on the quest for ever smaller gridded cells and thus more accurate results.
“each using parameters generated from recorded observations (ie historical data).”
Partially true; historical data may be the starting point, but then the parameters are “tuned” until they give what Climate Science considers a reasonable answer.
“They then run forward.”
True.
“Changes to temperatures etc due massive growth of cities would not be included”
True, but that is another reason that models give inaccurate results and that is the point made by this article.
“, because how?”
The fact that Climate Science does not know how to include UHI does not prove that it should not be included.
“Secondly, fit for purpose – what are you expecting from these climate models?”
If we are going to base the economy of the world on them, I expect them to give accurate projections of the future climate.
“Like all models they function as a guide”
What good is an inaccurate guide, especially if you plan to change the world economy based on the guide? Most people would call a guide like that worse than useless.
“they never have been, nor are they designed to :- tell you the temperature on a particular day in the future.”
True, but if they can’t give an accurate temperature for a day, why would you assume they give an accurate temperature for a year, or ten years, or 100 years?
“For a start, they use a only a subset of all the weather data.”
True, which means they start out with inaccurate and/or incomplete data and its down hill from there (having written computer programs for over 40 years, I can tell that there is a technical term for this phenomenon: Garbage-in, Garbage-out or GIGO)
“you appear to be confusing weather and climate, which is par for the comments on this blog”
False, Climate is defined as the long-term average of weather; if you can’t accurately project the long-term weather, it is very unlikely that the average of inaccurate weather projections will be an accurate climate projection.
Also, it is the Anthropomorphic Global Warming crowd that try to turn two days of hotish weather in late July in the US into proof of Anthropomorphic Global Warming (your average person would call that Summer in the US). Skeptics of Anthropomorphic Global Warming like to point out the cold spells not because they think it disproves Global Warming but because it illustrates the inconsistencies in the thought processes and communications of the Anthropomorphic Global Warming crowd.
30
These ‘models’ are useless pieces of hyperdrivel mathematically that are totally meaningless BECAUSE 1. they assume a GHG effect of CO2, and also try to predict circulation which CANT be modeled due to the impossibility of solving Navier Stokes equations in large meshes.
60
Wrong again Fitzroy, the models have got it wrong because they have been fed with incorrect data.
ie improperly adjusted temperatures within those huge urban growth environments.
So that’s the real nonsense.
Regards GeoffW
121
So you are saying that a climate model, which uses data gathered worldwide should have predicted the growth of the cites, which would not have figured in the initialisation of the model parameters? What next, is it supposed to predict what I’m having for lunch in a years time. The model could reasonably never have been expected to account for the massive increase in those cities, did your model?
113
No Peter Fitzroy, the Climate Models™ are junk!
No real science is in them. Note that the Climate Models™ can not assess or quantify the disposition of water in the atmosphere because it is mostly unknown to science! Climate Models™ are just tweaked and tuned to cover-up this shortcoming while giving the UN-IPCC the results they want.
81
And your model is not? both the weather model and the climate model use the same base code, but do use different datasets. If you distrust models, your appreciation of the weather will be limited to that which you can observe yourself. That would mean that you would be more likely to get wet, get hot, get cold, get snowed on etc etc.
09
You are talking jargon, jargon and jargon Peter
To try and intimidate views that disagree with your own alarmist nonsense.
What about an apology ?
Why ?
The models are
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
And thus useless for predicting the future climate.
And how much cash has been wasted
As a result of these wrong models ?
Billions on Billions !
50
What a load of absolutely incoherent gibberish from you, PF !
You obviously are just making CRAP up as you go along.
As you say, the models can give ANY ANSWER the user wants them to give…
..all those little knobs that they pretend do things. 😉
Do you really think that models that are meant to project into the future SHOULDN’T be taking account of urban growth..
Urban growth is the main driver of the global average surface temperature
And you think it should be left out…. !!!
WOW.. you really are scraping the depths of DUMB this time, PF.
60
I do not have a model. I have the evidence of observations.
¯
The evidence say CO2 DOES NOT CONTROL THE WEATHER OR CLIMATE!
¯
Using Climate Model™ to predict/forecast the outcomes from a complex chaotic system of loosely coupled parameters that are subjected to many irregular and erratic stimuli, while bound together with many more nonlinear and often stochastic feedback mechanisms is dumb. A fools errand!
I look at the Climate Model™, the snippets of programs and laugh. I look at the programmers blogs and laugh out loud! 🙂
Just for starts look here https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/07/21/ghcn-v3-3-vs-v4-top-level-entry-point/ and moving on to https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip/wgcm-cmip5 and then https://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/wgcm-cmip6 . etc., etc.
Neither weather nor Climate Models™ are any good for forecasting any climate specifics beyond about a week. If this were not so climate would not give us so many surprises, however people are often surprised about the natural turns of the weather and climate.
I do not believe in crystal ball gazers, astrology, clairvoyance or UN-IPCC Climate Models™ — they are all the same con-árses out to dupe people.
50
So the CLIMATE is being predicted based on WEATHER models.
And all climate is, is a running average of weather/temperature in a given area. So as the areas change the weather averages change, the climate changes – and ALL inputs to that change in those areas should be quantified, including the growth of cities, to rule out influences from anything that is not the “test” subject – CO2 – and ensure that the original hypothesis, that CO2, increases temperature.
The other theory, which gets all mixed up in with the first, but really should be held separate, is that mankind is the reason that the CO2 is higher, has been proven to a very tiny degree. Mankind is not the sole contributor, and even if the “influence” of mankind is expanded to a slightly higher degree than just exhaust from assorted industry and vehicles, mankind is still not the largest contributor.
If the first theory, that CO2 controls the climate, is NOT true, then the 2nd theory is just garbage. It doesn’t matter how much CO2 mankind emits if CO2 is NOT the controlling factor in climate. And it is looking like CO2 has next to no influence in climate. Temperature, rain patterns, wind patterns, etc., are controlled more by water vapor, the sun, the precession of the planet, the magnetic fields, etc., than CO2.
No amount of “But the models say…” and “scientists believe” can refute the reality – CO2 is not altering our climate according to ANY prediction, forecast, timeline, prophecy, etc., that has been made thus far.
20
Peter,
Why should anyone rely on unvalidated models to show anything? You do know about validating computer models don’t you?
An unvalidated model isn’t worth the computer time used to run it and therefore has no standing in the world of science and technology.
50
So true Peter, who’d have thought an increase in concrete, steel, traffic, industry over the landscape would lead to increased heat retention?
Also those silly models should’ve predicted the goings on inside one of the most secretive governments in the world, a few years ago they even looked like they were on board with UN emission targets and the Paris Agreement….sheesh.
100
yonnistone, if I were to pave my backyard, it would affect my local environment, but not the temperature forecast for my city. Are you saying that every building approval should be sent to the weather bureau?
115
Techhnically…yes. The BOM should take into account the UHI effect and de-homogenize temp readings accordingly
/Tongue in cheek
60
As my previous comments about the Mount Barker
BOM weather station show,
BOM is guilty of massive disinformation.
If they can’t get right the ONE weather post
Close by my home
What about all the others ?
INCOMPETENT !
30
Where are temperatures taken Peter?, the Bureau sites are very specifically placed on the ground or at height sometimes poorly, any UHI effect that accumulates in that locality will be recorded by that site, even satellite readings will pick up on UHI anomalies.
50
BOM weather station at Mount Barker is classic example of an official station which is far below the WMO requirements.
If you could take some photos and send them to Jo I think she could make a good post from them.
The history of site moves at Mount Barker is also poorly documented. Another BOM fail.
20
Have done so Peter !
20
1. If the city/town meteorological recording station was located in or next to your newly paved backyard it would indeed affect the forecast for the city.
Mt Barker SA is a good example/
2. One backyard somewhere will indeed affect the forecast for the city but only but a tiny amount. If the city grows or 10,000 people decide to pave their backyards then the forecast is affected to an appreciable amount.
30
If the weather station for your city were located in your back yard, yes, it would increase the readings for the temperature in your city.
Just like when a station sited in a field 40 years ago ends up surrounded by roads, an airport, malls, industry, etc. The temperature readings will rise even if the climate is not warming, as the accumulated heat storage/retention changes will be what is recorded, and the area’s potential for storage/retention has increased over time.
20
Plus the littering of the countryside with highly inefficient solar cell and windmills with all the power loss over their interconnecting transmission lines and voltage conversion equipment. Power loss that will cause atmospheric heating.
P.S How much IR is reflected up to the sky from solar cells, and how much is registered by the satellite monitoring?
30
Yonniestone,
I’ve recently (about 6 months ago) done a quick scan of over 20 recent top temperature records from areas of the world. I limited my range to those records mostly advertised as maximum temperature record breakers of one sort or another, and mostly those that were linked to Climate Change™ in the MSM.
None — NOT ONE — is from a rural area. I looked at about 300+ record across Europe and Eurasia, East Asia, the Americas, and Australia and New Zealand.
For some reason rural areas do not get as hot as cities, big towns, industrial areas, or international airports <— note airports easily get the most coverage!
Funny that cAGW seems to mainly affect built-up areas, especially airports. 🙂
20
Peter that is a dopey comment
If the persons building designing the models have any competence
Then they are obliged to take into account UHI
In China or India or and other part of the earth.
But they haven’t done this.
That proves complete incompetence.
To quote the Monopoly rule
They MUST go to jail and not
Collect any money on the way,
Such as grants etc
Becasue theor models are failed &
Based on ‘ on the stuffed research
90
Bill, the point is that the cites crew after the model was initialised. All the models use historical data, they can not account for future changes like city growth. To criticise a model for that, is dumb
110
Bull Peter !
Complete Bull.
These computer modellers have an obligationTo take ALL factors into account
Not doing so means that the model builders have no scientific integrity.
100
PF, fantasising yet again
So they can’t EVEN account for future growth of cities.
WOW, those models really are TOTALLY USELESS, aren’t they PF. !!
And no, they DON’T use historic data. They use ADJUSTED historic data..
Hence they will ALWAYS be WRONG.. just like you are.
70
“implies that the models should have predicted the growth of those urban environ”
Oh, so climate scientists didn’t even account of growth of urban areas.
Did they think urban areas WEREN’T going to grow, really ???
Basically ever urban planner has at least some idea how much an urban area might expand.
HOW STUPID would someone have to be not to even put it in their models.
Just DUMB, DUMBER, DUMBEST. !!
——
At least you finished with a good description of your comment….
” This is nonsense”
Just like basically every other comment you have ever made.
30
it seems like yesterday UHI was nowhere in the MSM – now it’s everywhere:
19 Jul: CityLab: Here’s What the Heat Island Looks Like in East Coast Cities
by Linda Poon
Maps of urban heat islands show where residents can find pockets of cooler air in Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C…
The annual mean air temperature of a city with at least 1 million people can be 2 to 5 degrees warmer than its surroundings, according to the EPA. In the evening, that temperature difference can be as high as 22 degrees. Experts chalk it up to the asphalt, steel, and concrete that trap the heat better than natural vegetation, as well as the disruption of airflow by the grid-like layout of cities…
In 2017 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration enlisted volunteers to map air temperatures throughout Richmond, Virginia, to find where the urban heat island effect is most extreme. It was part of the agency’s Urban Heat Mapping Project, and in the summer of 2018, citizen scientists did the same for Baltimore and D.C. This weekend, theyre measuring temperatures across Boston. Here’s how the heat island has been mapped across those cities…READ ON
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/07/east-coast-heat-wave-urban-heat-island-effect-maps/594346/
19 Jul: Buzzfeed: These Maps Show How Many Cities Are Much Hotter Than Their Surroundings
Big cities typically amplify summer heat. In a heat wave, those few extra degrees can be a killer.
by Peter Aldhous
Big cities are mostly noticeably warmer than their surroundings. In New York City, for example, the urban heat island effect adds almost 8 degrees Fahrenheit (almost 4.5 degrees Celsius) to typical daytime maximum summer temperatures. But if you think the Big Apple gets unbearable, check out Tokyo, where daytime summer temperatures typically reach more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit (more than 5.5 degrees Celsius) higher than the surrounding countryside…
A heat wave across much of Europe in 2003, which was particularly severe in central and southern France, is estimated to have killed (LINK) more than 70,000 people…
Excessive heat, amplified by the urban heat island effect, will become an increasing problem with climate change. According to a report issued this week by the Union of Concerned Scientists, without drastic action to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the average number of days with a heat index above 100 degrees in the US could more than double by midcentury, compared with conditions from 1971 to 2000…
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/summer-urban-heat-island-maps
41
at least old records are mentioned. what caused those temps?
17 Jul: ChicagoTribune: What you need to know about Chicago’s urban heat island ahead of ‘oppressive’ hot weather stint
By Katherine Rosenberg-Douglas
An urban heat island has the power to split an incoming storm system in two or keep a city and its suburbs significantly hotter than surrounding areas, especially once the sun goes down, meteorologists say.
Chicago is one such heat island — and this week the magnitude of the island’s impact on our weather will be on display, said Accuweather.com meteorologist Brett Edwards.
“It’s going to be oppressive, to say the least,” Edwards said of the heat wave the city is in for beginning Thursday.
***Records dating to the 1930s and ’40s could be met or broken Friday and Saturday if the high temperatures forecast are exceeded, he said…
The high temperature Thursday is forecast to be 92 to 97 degrees but could trend higher, and the hottest July 18 on record is 100 degrees in 1946, according to the weather service. The high Friday is forecast to be 95 to 100 degrees, with the July 19 record of 101 degrees set in 1930, according to the weather service…
Saturday’s high of 98 degrees may not contend with the record of 101 set in 1980, and by Sunday, the heat wave is expected to end.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/weather/ct-cb-what-to-know-chicago-urban-heat-island-20190718-kv7paijixzhf5ioknodfgdhlwy-story.html
23 Jul: UK Independent: Europe heatwave: Paris set for hottest temperature in history as city stews in ‘urban heat island’
Second extreme heat event in one month prompts climate change activist Greta Thunberg to warn French politicians to act urgently to avert catastrophe
by Anthony Cuthbertson in Paris
Temperatures on Thursday will reach up to 42C, according to Meteo France, breaking the previous record temperature of 40.4C, which was set in July ***1947…
Climate activist Greta Thunberg was in Paris on Tuesday to warn politicians they needed to act urgently to avert catastrophe, though some right-wing MPs refused to attend.
“Some people have chosen not to come here today, some have chosen not to listen to us,” Ms Thunberg said.
“You don’t have to listen to us. But you do have to listen to the science.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/europe-heatwave-temperature-paris-record-uk-france-latest-weather-a9017631.html
you are wearing out your welcome, Greta. take a break – go back to school.
80
How did Greta Thunberg get to Paris…by bicycle?
100
“Claim: Climate Activists Face an Ethical Dilemma Abandoning Air Tourism”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/23/claim-climate-activists-face-an-ethical-dilemma-abandoning-air-tourist-destinations/
50
Seems to be a push to use get local govt to decalre ( still laughing at this… ) a “climate emergency”
https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/6288776/lobby-group-urges-council-to-declare-climate-emergency/?cs=9681
The thinking seems to be if you can influence the rats and mice of local govt, you can then use weight of numbers to set precendence and peer pressure ( not peer review ) to get everyone to step into line.
I feel sorry for the well meaning people who wrongly truly believe the climate fairy story , who will freeze to death in the coming LIA…..just add that to the list of charges to be read out against the high-up organizers of the Big Lie at the Climate Nuremberg Trials….
40
Her minders have given her a new look, brunette with ponytail.
The German war years Youth look with blonde pigtails is no longer.
50
She rode her unicorn there!
70
Saint Greta’s star seems to be sinking fast. Her recent rally in Berlin only attracted 2,000 instead of the previous 20,000, but it was held during school holidays which not surprisingly resulted in most school activists not attending. Apparently skateboarding holds more attraction than listen to a babbling autistic. The 2,000 was largely older full-time activists.
https://notrickszone.com/2019/07/21/fridaysforfuture-fizzles-as-kids-go-on-summer-break-greta-sees-only-2000-in-berlin-mostly-adults-organizers/
30
It takes someone like the chineese to come up with the bleeding obvious ie that the urban heat island effect has a huge effect on the local temperatures, and that this observation has to be taken properly into consideration when assessing the larger scale warming.
GeoffW
40
26 Jun: Local France: AFP: Heatwave in France: ‘Heat sink’ effect raises temperature in Paris by up to 10C
France’s national meteorological service has found an average annual difference between Paris and surrounding rural areas on the order of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (4 – 5 degrees Fahrenheit).
During a heatwave, the difference “can reach close to 10 degrees Celsius”, said Meteo-France…
These urban heat islands thus magnify the effects of climate change which is expected to increase the number of heatwaves, researchers warn…
To the list of factors making cities feel like ovens, there is another one which must be added: air conditioning.
“The more you use air conditioning in buildings, the more you heat the outside air,” noted (Meteo-France’s Aude) Lemonsu…
Paris has opened up public parks normally closed at night to allow residents to sleep in the open air when a heatwave makes it difficult to spend a restful night in an apartment without air conditioning…
https://www.thelocal.fr/20190626/heatwave-heat-sink-effect-raises-temperature-in-paris-by-up-to-10c
23 Jul: Union of Concerned Scientists: Vulnerable Populations Across US Metro Areas at Risk of Fatal Heat by Mid-Century
by Juan Declet-Barreto, Climate Scientist
In addition, the urban environment in which many low-income people can afford to live can further increase their exposure to extreme heat because many poor neighborhoods are deprived of “park cool islands” with shading vegetation that can help mitigate the urban heat island, which typically makes poorer parts of cities hotter…
Additionally, many rural populations are also at high heat-related health risks. Disparities in access and proximity to health care facilities and cooling shelters are in part responsible for some of the highest heat-related mortality and morbidity rates in rural areas of the United States, as is living in a mobile home…
https://blog.ucsusa.org/juan-declet-barreto/vulnerable-populations-at-risk-fatal-heat
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But Your Majesty, who will think of the Crown Jewels and the Royal Corgis and, more importantly, Boris’ hair?
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-heatwave-all-time-july-temperature-record-to-be-challenged-as-dangerous-heat-builds-into-thursday/70008874
“Intense heat is set to build across much of the United Kingdom this week”, ha Ha HAHAHA!!! OK, I’ve picked myself up off the floor, I’ll try to continue. “The heat kicked into full gear on Tuesday as temperatures approached 32 C (90 F)”. And this was “in London” of course: Heathrow Airport maybe?
“This three-day stretch of unseasonable [?] heat will achieve heat wave status for a large portion of the United Kingdom”. So it ain’t five days no more eh Guv, me old cobbler? Three lubbly-jubbly summer daze and it’s reached cult status? Wha’ever. However Trevor, knock me down wiff a fevva:
“A storm system affecting the region from Thursday afternoon… will bring an end to the heat and send temperatures falling”, and that’s it folks, show’s over! Was fun while it lasted, now back to your austerity and cold, damp, mouldy caverns. Hopefully nobody mentions the 10-day-long July 1757 Heatwave, the ‘hottest summer in Europe for 500 years’ because, well, simply because.
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o/t but there has been so little coverage of the Lake Alexandrina matter, I have to put this up the minute I’ve found a working video, which was just posted about 10 minutes ago:
VIDEO: 7min17sec: 23 Jul: Sky News: Bolt Report: Mainstream media ‘letting drought go without any interest’
Nationals Party Whip Damian Drum says mainstream media outlets are ‘letting this drought go without any interest in it at all’.
Speaking to Sky News Mr Drum says media has been more interested in fish kills than the health of farmers.
***It comes after questions have been raised of the The Murray-Darling Authority’s flushing of the river system to keep Lake Alexandrina full of fresh water, instead of salty – an action that could be based on a flawed scientific report.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6062979012001
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Pat this issue is a huge one
And South Australians who ‘benefit’
From keeping Lake Alexandrina & Albert fresh
Will never discuss the issue
Here is another link about these lakes which was filmed
At the end of the Murray.
Important watching !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=2HKW51CSXak&fbclid=IwAR3OSey5SqU1D7jG4ahoSxl0CatzP6HlLKQMM3WL9vVIteADHH7SYanuEdE
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Thanks Pat,
It’s another of those things that niggled me at the time, but as the decision had been made apparently on the basis of “science” I didn’t follow it up.
But now I think we should chase it vigorously. It smacks of the same misuse of language used by the IPCC. I wonder who initiated the change? As Julius Caesar said “Qui bono” in investigating any crime (who benefits?). I guess it would be worth while looking towards the state’s capital…
Cheers
Dave B
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There used to be a Butterfish fishing Industry
In lake Alexandrina
It died when the barrages were built
Butterfish are a major marine water fish
That move into estuarine waters to breed
Once the barrages were built they could not breed there
And the population crashed.
Why aren’t the Greenists complaining about this destruction of habitat
And resultant threat to this fish species ?
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Bill, chuck a plastic bag or three in there and they’ll come running, shrieking and squealing like demented banshees. Good luck!
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23 Jul: UK Sun: FIRE AND FURY History’s deadliest heatwaves revealed – Wildfires, melting streets and 70,000 fatalities
by Harry Pettit, Senior Digital Technology and Science Reporter
BRITAIN is sweating its way through another heatwave this week.
But while the brief spell of 36C temperatures may feel brutal, it pales in comparison to history’s deadliest heatwaves…
1) Europe, 2003
Europe underwent a gruelling heatwave in 2003, killing an estimated 70,000 people…ETC
2) Russia, 2010
(?)Russia is typically known for its icy cold climate, but that all changed in 2010.
Between July and August that year, temperatures soared to above 38C for prolonged periods.
The conditions hit Russia with the worst drought conditions in more than 40 years.
Around 9 million hectares of crop died. The remnants left behind were prone to catching fire, and triggered wildfires across the country.
It’s estimated around ***56,000 people died…
3) Eastern United States, 1901
Though it did not set many temperature records, the heatwave was so deadly because it was unusually prolonged.
It lasted for six weeks without letting up during June and July 1901…
***The next five years are to be the “hottest ever” (LINK), with soaring temperatures bringing droughts, floods and hurricanes…
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/9567479/history-deadliest-heatwaves-revealed/
10 Mar 2011: Reuters: 2010 Russia heat wave ***due to natural variability: U.S
by Deborah Zabarenko
The 2010 Russian heat wave that killed thousands and cut into that country’s grain harvest was primarily due to natural variability, not human-spurred climate change, U.S. scientists said on Wednesday.
There was plenty of circumstantial evidence pointing to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but close investigation showed this was not a major factor, the scientists said in research published online in Geophysical Research Letters.
“It was an off-the-charts intensity event,” Randall Dole of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said at a telephone news briefing. “It certainly was the most extreme event we had seen, dating back to at least 1880,” when modern weather record-keeping began…
However, Dole and his co-authors found that the kind of massive heat wave that hung over western Russia from July through mid-August was due mainly to a natural phenomenon called atmospheric blocking.
This occurs when high atmospheric pressure builds up and refuses to budge, forcing any cool air and rains to detour around it, like a traffic island on a busy street…
Whatever the cause of the record heat wave, the record high temperatures combined with poor air quality from wildfires increased deaths by at least 56,000 in Moscow and other parts of western Russia, according to Munich Reinsurance…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-russia-heat/2010-russia-heat-wave-due-to-natural-variability-u-s-idUSTRE7287DS20110309
19 Mar 2011: AGU: Geophysical Research Letters: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?
Authors: Randall Dole ETC
Abstract
Analysis of forced model simulations indicates that neither human influences nor other slowly evolving ocean boundary conditions contributed substantially to the magnitude of this heat wave. They also provide evidence that such an intense event could be produced through natural variability alone ETC…
LINK FULL TEXT
Introduction
3. Results
[6] The July surface temperatures for the region impacted by the 2010 Russian heat wave shows no significant warming trend over the prior 130‐year period from 1880 to 2009 (Figures 1, middle and 1, bottom). A linear trend calculation yields a total temperature change over the 130 years of −0.1oC (with a range of 0 to −0.4oC over the four data sets, see Tables S1 and S2 of the auxiliary material for comparison). Similarly, no significant difference exists between July temperatures over western Russia averaged for the last 65 years (1945–2009) versus the prior 65 years (1880–1944) (Table S2). There is also no clear indication of a trend toward increasing warm extremes. The prior 10 warmest Julys are distributed across the entire period and exhibit only modest clustering earlier in this decade, in the 1980s and in the 1930s (Figure 1, middle). This behavior differs substantially from globally averaged annual temperatures, for which eleven of the last twelve years ending in 2006 rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record since 1850 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007]. The absence of prior July warming also differs from antecedent conditions for the 2003 western European heat wave, where a strong regional warming trend was detected over the twentieth century (see long‐term trend map in Figure 1, bottom), a significant fraction of which has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing [Fischer and Schär, 2010]…
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2010GL046582
7 Feb: UK Sun: GROUND-BAKING Next five years to be ‘hottest EVER’ with soaring temperatures bringing droughts, floods and hurricanes, experts warn
If temperatures soar as predicted in the next five years, we could see an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather, experts have said
By Erica Doyle Higgins
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “2015 was the first year that global annual average surface temperatures reached 1C above pre-industrial levels, and the following three years have all remained close to this level.
“The global average temperature between now and 2023 is predicted to remain high, potentially making the decade from 2014 the warmest in more than 150 years of records.”
And the World Meteorological Organisation has warned that the impact of soaring temperatures can be felt in the severity and frequency of extreme global weather events…
Potsdam Institute climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf added: “The trend is going relentlessly up, and it will continue to do so… Those who live in denial of this fact are in denial of physics.”…
Prof Sir Brian Hoskins, chair of the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, said: “Our lack of decisive action over climate change makes us like a climber ascending a mountain, knowing that there will not be enough oxygen at some height, yet still we go on.
“Not every individual step takes us nearer disaster, but as confirmed by the Met Office, our general direction is clear.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/8372896/global-heatwave-hot-temperatures-droughts-floods-hurricanes/
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28 Jun: NationalGeographic: Europe has had five 500-year summers in 15 years. And now this
A continent without air conditioning struggles with 100-degree days in June—and wonders how it will cope with the hotter years ahead.
By Stephen Leahy
The 2003 heat wave was the worst, having led to the deaths of over 70,000 people; in 2010, 56,000 died in Russia alone.
These extreme heat events are all connected to a slower jet stream that locks weather systems into place, says Michael Mann of Penn State University. Mann co-authored a study last year that linked the slowdown in the jet stream—the band of high-altitude winds that sweep around the globe from west to east—to last summer’s unprecedented droughts, heat waves, wildfires, and flooding events across the entire Northern Hemisphere. And it is likely behind India’s weak monsoon rains and the widespread flooding in the U.S. Midwest this year…
VIDEO: 4min09sec: Climate Change 101 with Bill Nye
“My colleagues at PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) have verified that this is what we’re seeing right now in Europe,” Mann said in an email…
While temperatures in Europe are nowhere near as hot as India’s current month-long heat wave—temperatures on the Asian subcontinent have reached 123°F (51°C)—most Europeans, particularly in the north, are unused to anything over 85°F. Air-conditioning remains rare. It’s found in less than five percent of homes in France, for example, and less than two percent of German homes…
Hot city nights
The number of heat wave days in European cities are nearly double those of the surrounding suburban and rural landscape because of the urban heat island effect, said Jürgen Kropp of PIK…
Without major cuts in carbon emissions, the number of heat wave days in cities will increased 10-fold by the end of this century, Kropp said…
There is a real debate about what to do about the increasing heat, he went on. Air-conditioning increases energy use, which will increase Germany’s carbon emissions, making climate change worse. The majority of Germans want more action on climate, Kropp said—but window AC units are in high demand right now…
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/06/europe-has-had-five-500-year-summers-in-15-years/
Aug 2015: McClatchy DC: In sweaty Europe, air conditioning is no way to cope with the heat
By Matthew Schofield
In uber-green Germany, a recent government website offered sweating citizens the advice of turning on a fan and only 2 percent of the homes are air conditioned…
Still, the German government is loathe to recommend more air conditioning. The German Ministry of the Environment this month specifically exempted air conditioning from subsidies provided to adapt to climate change. “Air conditioning is ruled out as it works against the protection of the environment,” it said…
In Greece, for instance, the European Union now estimates that 99 percent of households have air-conditioning, surpassing even the estimated 87 percent of Americans with air-conditioning. But while there have been slow, steady climbs since that year in the households with air-conditioning, the percentage of homes in France remains below 5, in Germany below 2 percent and in Austria below 1 percent…
Reacting to the summer of 2003 and rising temperatures in general, German law was rewritten from requiring businesses to provide a workplace with temperatures below 79 degrees to a requirement that they provide a “reasonable” workplace temperature. Keeping the workplace below 79 wasn’t seen as possible without air conditioning, so the law was changed not to require it.
Niklas Schinerl, an energy expert at Greenpeace, Germany, says the fact that more aren’t rushing towards cooling systems is a positive sign, and shows a commitment to the environment. Still, he acknowledged that even in Switzerland, energy consumption for air conditioning has doubled in the last 10 years. He noted that energy consumption for air conditioning now consumes the equivalent of all the power generated by one of Switzerland’s five nuclear reactors. And that’s expected to rise.
Yet he thinks Europe will hold the line…
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article30613365.html
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“an energy expert at Greenpeace” – WARNING WARNING – Oxymoron Alert – WARNING!!!
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6 Jun: YaleClimateConnections: Heat waves and climate change: Is there a connection?
Extreme heat is becoming more common. Here’s why.
By Jeff Berardelli
(Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli is a climate and weather contributor for CBS News in New York City)
Why does a modest increase in the average temperature lead to extreme heat?…
How often is extreme heat occurring today?
Extreme heat occurred very rarely 50 years ago in the United States.
But as a result of climate change, the bell curve has already shifted by one standard deviation interval – a measure that tells you how spread out the values are – according to a 2016 paper by climate scientist James Hansen. As a result, extreme summer heat now occurs about 7% of the time.
The U.S. still sets some record lows, but it’s been setting far more record highs. In fact, recent record highs have been outpacing record lows at a ratio of two to one. This difference could grow to 20 to 1 by mid-century and 50 to 1 by the end of the century…
For instance, the European Heat Wave of 2003 is estimated to have caused an astounding 70,000 deaths. Researchers found that human influence at least doubled the risk of a heat wave of that magnitude. In 2010, another 56,000 people died in a heat wave in Russia. A 2011 study concluded that there is an 80% probability the heat wave would not have occurred without global warming.
An exceptional heat wave – nicknamed “Lucifer” – occurred in southern Europe in 2017. In a study conducted by World Weather Attribution, researchers found Lucifer to be 10 times more likely than it would have been in the early 1900s.
Scientists have also studied a 2018 summer event that spread oppressive heat from Japan to Canada, concluding that the size of the event was unprecedented and not possible without climate change…ETC
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/06/heat-waves-and-climate-change-is-there-a-connection/
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Energy Physics…Inconvenient Realities source http://icecap.us/
26. Politicians and pundits like to invoke “moonshot” language. But transforming the energy economy is not like putting a few people on the moon a few times. It is like putting all of humanity on the moon – permanently.
27. The common cliche: an energy tech disruption will echo the digital tech disruption. But information-producing machines and energy-producing machines involve profoundly different physics; the cliche is sillier than comparing apples to bowling balls.
28. If solar power scaled like computer-tech, a single postage-stamp-size solar array would power the Empire State Building. That only happens in comic books.
29. If batteries scaled like digital tech, a battery the size of a book, costing three cents, could power a jetliner to Asia. That only happens in comic books.
30. If combustion engines scaled like computers, a car engine would shrink to the size of an ant and produce a thousand-fold more horsepower; actual ant-sized engines produce 100,000 times less power.
31. No digital-like 10x gains exist for solar tech. Physics limit for solar cells (the Shockley-Queisser limit) is a max conversion of about 33% of photons into electrons; commercial cells today are at 26%.
32. No digital-like 10x gains exist for wind tech. Physics limit for wind turbines (the Betz limit) is a max capture of 60% of energy in moving air; commercial turbines achieve 45%.
33. No digital-like 10x gains exist for batteries: maximum theoretical energy in a pound of oil is 1,500% greater than max theoretical energy in the best pound of battery chemicals.
34. About 60 pounds of batteries are needed to store the energy equivalent of one pound of hydrocarbons.
35. At least 100 pounds of materials are mined, moved and processed for every pound of battery fabricated.
36. Storing the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil, which weighs 300 pounds, requires 20,000 pounds of Tesla batteries ($200,000 worth).
37. Carrying the energy equivalent of the aviation fuel used by an aircraft flying to Asia would require $60 million worth of Tesla-type batteries weighing five times more than that aircraft.
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The guy who ran the organic garden atop Galeries Lafayette in the heart of Paris said that one big advantage of urban agriculture was the earlier, warmer and much longer growing season. He didn’t model anything, just grew stuff, so I guess he can be ignored.
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M Around that area
“GIStemp – dumber than a tomato”
“I’m adopting this “tag line” about tomatoes due to the simple fact that my tomato garden is a more accurate reporter of the temperature than is GIStemp. Normal tomatoes will not set fruit below 50F at night. Cold varieties, like Siberia, can set fruit down to 40F (and some claim lower to 35F). My tomato plants reliably report the temperature. GIStemp, not so much… ”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/gistemp/
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There’s an anomaly in the graphs in the mainland region to the NNW of Hainan Island. The temperature reductions coincide with urban intensification.
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