Here we go again. For five or so years believers didn’t really mention the Medieval Warm Period. Too bruised by the embarrassment of Hockey Stick Zombie failures. But it’s an inconvenient era they have to rub out because none of the expert models can explain what caused it, and it’s hard to panic about same temperatures that Edward the Confessor survived with oxen and carts.
And it’s hard to call the modern warmth “man-made” if nature created something just like it 1,000 years ago.
Climate change: We haven’t experienced anything like this in the past 2,000 years
By Michael Collett, ABC, Environmental Copy and Paste Promoter
Climate scientists writing in the journal Nature have found there is no evidence for “globally coherent warm and cold periods” over the past 2,000 years prior to industrialisation.
That’s significant, because climate change deniers have sometimes pointed to epochs like the so-called “Little Ice Age” or “Medieval Warm Period” to argue that the current global warming is one among multiple similar global climate events.
But what the research actually shows is that other “peak warming and cooling events” over the past two millennia appear to have been localised, whereas the human-caused global warming observed over the past 150 years is unparalleled in its global scale (not to mention its absolute temperatures).
Who’s denying a million raw data points?
This new global temperature reconstruction by The Pages Consortium miraculously agrees with the models yet disagrees with hundreds of stalagmites, corals, ice cores, trees, lake sediments, mud from the ocean floor, pollen dust and 6,000 boreholes. It disagrees with the history of peoples like the Vikings. It disagrees with plants that grew and with trees that survived “above the snowline” that shouldn’t. This map shows just some temperature estimates from all around the world during medieval times relative to today.
Many of these papers come from Craig Idso at CO2Science.org who maintains the Medieval Warm Period Project. Back in 2009 when I did this map for the Skeptics Handbook II it was a first. Even then, there were already 442 separate research institutes from 41 countries which had published papers showing the MWP.* Also thanks to Luning and Vahrenholt, and the team at NoTricksZone.
The latest paper is trying to claim that all these temperatures were not recorded at the same time and that it wasn’t global. But when proxies are combined it’s obvious it was. Even in our modern warm period, there are still warm and cold records being set at the same time. Medieval times were no different. It’s only by collating and combining many proxies that we can see “the average”.
18 proxies tell us the world was the same or warmer 1,000 years ago
Craig Loehle in 2008 used 18 non-tree-ring proxies which included Greenland borehole data, Conroy lake pollen, isotopes from Chesapeake Bay, Sargasso Sea, Caribbean Sea, results from caves in South Africa, the Swiss Alps, Sea Surface reconstructions from Norway, the northern Pacific and the South Atlantic and other proxies too.
Temperatures were higher 1000 years ago, and cooler 300 years ago. We started warming long before cars and powerstations were invented. There’s little correlation with CO2 levels.
Loehle 2008. Note the graph ends in 1935, not 1980.
Here’s what 120 proxies from the Northern Hemisphere tell us
Ljungqvist et al combined 120 proxies of all different kinds and found this pattern for the last 12 centuries across the Northern Hemisphere.
120 Proxies, Medieval Warm Period, Ljundqvist, et al, 2012.
Then there’s Christiansen et al 2012 who followed 32 proxies from the Northern Hemisphere back to the year 0 AD.
Medieval Warm PEriod, Little Ice Age.
Here’s the Medieval Warm Period in China
(Click to enlarge) Quansheng Ge et al, 2017
Here’s the Medieval Warm Period in Antarctica, and the Little Ice Age:
Just in case you thought there wasn’t enough from the Southern Hemisphere.
60 sites across Antarctica were used to create this composite trend. – Lüning, S., M. Gałka, F. Vahrenholt (2019)
Ocean heat content around Indonesia shows Medieval Warm Period and 2C warmth in Holocene
Rosenthal et al 2013 put out quite the zinger of a paper. They’ve reconstructed the temperature of the water flowing out of the Pacific to the Indian Ocean over the last 10,000 years and as deep as 900m. The Indonesian Throughflow is pretty significant in global ocean currents.
Figure 4. Holocene changes in Pacific Ocean heat content measured as it swings past Indonesia on the way to the Indian Ocean. Reconstructed anomalies are calculated relative to the reference period of 1965 to 1970 C
Clearly that water was warmer 1000 years ago than it was circa 1970. It was even warmer again in the Holocene.
3000 hot and cold years in a South African cave
South African Cave last 3000 years
Source: Holmgren 2001. See also here and here in African reconstructions.
The Southern Ocean 7000 year record also shows long term cooling as well as the Roman Warm Period.
Then there’s 10,000 mostly hotter years in Greenland
No paleoclimate discussion is complete without GISP:
UPDATE: This graph shows the ice-core data up until 1855. The last 150 years (1705 to 1855) are highlighted in red to show the warming as the Earth began coming out of the LIA.
6,000 Boreholes show it was global
Just some of the places these boreholes have been dug. They stick a thermometer down a hole, and all over the world there is a pattern that repeats as temperature changes on the surface travel gradually down through the rocks. Sure, the resolution is bare bones. The data is “smoothed”. We can’t use boreholes to know if things were warmer than today and we can’t tell how long ago that big last surge in warmth was, but where boreholes come into their own is in showing us just how global that last big warm spell was.
Boreholes are handy because they assess land areas that have few other proxies.
Below is the latest iteration of a graph that went through a savage evolution from 1997 – 2008. What stayed constant was that boreholes always showed a medieval warm period and a little ice age, that is, except for the time Huang et al “lost” nearly 20,000 years of data.
Huang and Pollack 2008: Their latest boreholes published study
In the graph above, if the assumption about the speed of heat flow is shifted to line up the coolest point with other proxies in 1680 and the warmest point to somewhere around 1000 – 1200 the amplitude would increase (see the jaw dropping 1997 original paper which claimed it was much warmer in medieval times).
These papers are by no means the only important ones. There are so many others…
So go tell the world — everywhere we look the world was hotter and colder in the last 1000 years, the last 10,000 years and the last billion.
h/t George, David B, Original Steve, Peter Fitzroy.
Background Information:
- Medieval Warm Period found in 120 proxies.
- The big picture: 65 million years of temperature swings
- Roman Warming (was it global?)
- Climate helped drive Vikings from Greenland
- The Medieval Warm Period hit west Antarctica
- Scandalous hockey sticks and hidden data
- Ocean heat content around Indonesia shows Medieval Warm Period and 2C warmth in holocene
- Chinese 2,485 year tree ring study shows natural cycles control climate, temps may cool til 2068 (Liu et al, 2011).
- The message from boreholes
REFERENCES
PAGES 2k Consortium. Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era. Nature, 2019 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0
Christiansen, B. and Ljungqvist F. C. (2012). The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability. Climate of the Past, 8(2):765–786, 2012. [abstract] [PDF] [NASA copy] [Discussion on CA noted a lack of complete archives and code]
Holmgren, K., Tyson, P.D., Moberg, A. and Svanered, O. 2001. A preliminary 3000-year regional temperature reconstruction for South Africa. South African Journal of Science 97: 49-51.
Loehle, C. 2007. A 2000 Year Global Temperature Reconstruction based on Non-Treering Proxy Data. Energy & Environment 18:1049-1058) and the subsequent correction with better confidence intervals
Loehle, C. and Hu McCulloch. 2008. Correction to: A 2000 Year Global Temperature Reconstruction based on Non-Treering Proxy Data. Energy & Environment 19:93-100 [Cached copy here]
Ljungqvist, F. C., Krusic, P. J., Brattström, G., and Sundqvist, H. S (2012).: Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries, Clim. Past, 8, 227-249, doi:10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, 2012. [abstract] [PDF] or try this [PDF] [CO2science discussion]
Lüning, S., M. Gałka, F. Vahrenholt (2019): The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Antarctica. Palaeogeogr., Palaeoclimatol., Palaeoecol., doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2019.109251
Sources: Loehle 2007, Haung and Pollack 1997, See co2science.org for all the other peer reviewed studies to go with every orange dot on the map. McIntyre & McKitrick 2003 and 2005, and update, Mann et al 1998, Briffa 2006, and Monckton “What Hockey Stick” (Science and Public Policy Institute paper)
Quansheng Ge et al, Characteristics of temperature change in China over the last 2000 years and spatial patterns of dryness/wetness during cold and warm periods, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2017). DOI: 10.1007/s00376-017-6238-8
Yair Rosenthal1,*, Braddock K. Linsley2, Delia W. Oppo3 (2013) Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years, Science 1 November,Vol. 342 no. 6158 pp. 617-621 DOI: 10.1126/science.1240837 [Sciencemag.org ]
______________________
* The world map was created by looking at studies listed on Co2science.org. Craig Idso divided up studies into three different levels. Level 1 is the most useful, because they are able to tell us, not just whether the world is warming or not, but but also give a number. The level 2 studies just tell us whether things were warmer or cooler at that location, and with a specific timeframe. The level 3 studies are useful for pinpointing the time frame of the warming. All three levels are represented by orange dots. The numbers come from the level 1 studies. I did not put all the positive ones I could find because there were so many, but I included all the negatives I came across.
There were 57 studies of a level 1 category (bound to be more now). There was clearly a warm period and it was clearly global.
With the amount of spin hyping CAGW the MWP and LIA sound more like political fronts……….add the ABC then…
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Thanks Jo for presenting the evidence yet again.
I don’t expect
Our un-Australian Brainwashing Corporation
To accept any of it unfortunately.
The evidence is not in their script.
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The un Australian Brainwashing Corporation
Must have a quota per week or day
Of alarmist nonsense Global warming
Propaganda.
Now it’s Tasmania’s turn
With support from the Bureau of Misinformation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-26/climate-change-measurable-impacts-in-tasmania/11338326
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A few months back The Pointman declared that the AGW battle was over. At that time nobody had told Australia, as we lurched to an election the result of which supported The Pointman’s observation.
At the time it appeared to me that his observation was founded in the Mueller Report’s failure to nail Trump. But there had to be more to it than that.
The landslide election of the Abbott government in 2013 brought a doubling of effort from the world wide AGW propaganda machine, which has brought us to the situation that half the population now believes it. But increasingly it seems that the movers and shakers are becoming sceptical. The effect of Al Gore’s stymying of Abbott’s landslide are now being felt, too big to ignore.
We have here two quite bizarre claims being promoted by the propaganda machine. Is this hyperbole telling us that they have become desperate? The change in government in Britain makes it now three crucial elections they have lost.
Now might be the time to lay the boot in. Call them for what they are.
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The DomeC ice cores show lots of variability since the end of the last ice age and even over the last couple of thousand years.
http://www.palisad.com/co2/ic/d_temp+co2_15k.gif
Vostok shows the same thing:
http://www.palisad.com/co2/ic/v_temp+co2_15k.gif
For DomeC, 20-50 year averages are reported, while for Vostok, averages of nearly a century and longer are reported.
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Interesting plot spacing (if not merely artifacts) quite some similarity to recent centuries.
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“But a detailed response on my part is unnecessary, given this awesome paragraph from Kevin Williamson:
Which brings us to the problem of trying to have a productive conversation with people who are caught up in the vast sprawling electronic apparatus of self-moronization. It does not matter what anybody actually has said or written. The rage-monkeys have an idea about what it is they want you to have said, or what people like you are supposed to think about x or y. I cannot count how many times I have had some person respond to something critical I’ve written about some lefty fruitcake with “What about Trump, huh?” When I point out that, among other things, I wrote a little book called The Case against Trump, the response is: “Well, Republicans . . .” And then when I point out that I am not one of those, either, the retreat into ever-vaguer generality continues incrementally. The fundamental problem is that what’s going on in “conversations” such as these is not conversation at all but a juvenile status-adjustment ritual. These people do not care about ideas — they care about who sits at which cafeteria table in the vast junior high school of American popular culture.
Gad, I wish I had written that last sentence.”
http://coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2019/07/on-tribalism-and-discourse-the-best-paragraph-i-have-read-for-quite-a-while.html
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Take heart…the ugly reality is that in the coming LIA when people are freezing to death and have made no provision for it they are expecting heatwaves, they likely wont survive as they have no practical bone in thier bodies. I hate the idea of people dying, the ugly reality is that stupid is naturally self lmiting….
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OS your comment: ….the ugly reality is that stupid is naturally self limiting…. I would like to expand and quote Dietrich Bonhoeffer.
‘Stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice. One may protest against evil; it can be exposed and, if need be, prevented by use of force. Evil always carries within itself the germ of its own subversion in that it leaves behind in human beings at least a sense of unease. Against stupidity we are defenseless. Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed- in such moments the stupid person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental. In all this the stupid person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self-satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack. For that reason, greater caution is called for than with a malicious one. Never again will we try to persuade the stupid person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous.
‘If we want to know how to get the better of stupidity, we must seek to understand its nature. This much is certain, that it is in essence not an intellectual defect but a human one. There are human beings who are of remarkably agile intellect yet stupid, and others who are intellectually quite dull yet anything but stupid. We discover this to our surprise in particular situations. The impression one gains is not so much that stupidity is a congenital defect, but that, under certain circumstances, people are made stupid or that they allow this to happen to them. We note further that people who have isolated themselves from others or who lives in solitude manifest this defect less frequently than individuals or groups of people inclined or condemned to sociability. And so it would seem that stupidity is perhaps less a psychological than a sociological problem. It is a particular form of the impact of historical circumstances on human beings, a psychological concomitant of certain external conditions. Upon closer observation, it becomes apparent that every strong upsurge of power in the public sphere, be it of a political or of a religious nature, infects a large part of humankind with stupidity. It would even seem that this is virtually a sociological-psychological law. The power of the one needs the stupidity of the other. The process at work here is not that particular human capacities, for instance, the intellect, suddenly atrophy or fail. Instead, it seems that under the overwhelming impact of rising power, humans are deprived of their inner independence, and, more or less consciously, give up establishing an autonomous position toward the emerging circumstances. The fact that the stupid person is often stubborn must not blind us to the fact that he is not independent. In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with a person, but with slogans, catchwords and the like that have taken possession of him. He is under a spell, blinded, misused, and abused in his very being. Having thus become a mindless tool, the stupid person will also be capable of any evil and at the same time incapable of seeing that it is evil. This is where the danger of diabolical misuse lurks, for it is this that can once and for all destroy human beings.
‘Yet at this very point it becomes quite clear that only an act of liberation, not instruction, can overcome stupidity. Here we must come to terms with the fact that in most cases a genuine internal liberation becomes possible only when external liberation has preceded it. Until then we must abandon all attempts to convince the stupid person. This state of affairs explains why in such circumstances our attempts to know what ‘the people’ really think are in vain and why, under these circumstances, this question is so irrelevant for the person who is thinking and acting responsibly. The word of the Bible that the fear of God is the beginning of wisdom declares that the internal liberation of human beings to live the responsible life before God is the only genuine way to overcome stupidity”.
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Perhaps, Staal, my paraphrase would be “you can’t argue with a mug”. ToM
80
I mentioned this to my builder son recently, not being prepared for a new cold period, and he replied that new homes in NSW are required to have insulation and other features that does make new dwellings more weather resistant than in the past.
40
Darwin’s theory of natural selection applies to individuals, groups of individuals tribes, communities etc.
We are caught in a downward spiral at the moment.
The worst situation is when enlightened people see the truth within a situation but are caught up in the herd mentality
First priority is survival, then help with the rebuilding, if possible.
40
When will people realise that the monologue in social media is not a dialogue in the real World?
80
A fair number of people have ‘grown-up’ with a net-connected-continuity and portable devices, and have never or rarely experienced the mental space (agony of a power outage!) produced by protracted disconnection (or never having been connected before 30), so having the’ time’ to think stuff through, just to understand has apparently become rare if not unusual. The problem of curiosity is ‘remedied ‘ via regular hits of digital fairy-floss.
40
Read a book once (OK, thrice) based on a similar plot. Now what was it called… oh yes – Brave New World.
30
“Ignore that man behind the screen”
-Wizard of Oz
80
Mann’s Hockey Stick has always relied on the claim that the undoubted warmth in Northerly latitudes during the MWP was offset by a cooler climate elsewhere.
Briffa is clear that what little data there is in the Southern Hemisphere says the opposite.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/12/26/briffa-confirms-mwp-in-southern-hemisphere/
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Tony Heller also commented on this and features “our” ABC.
https://youtu.be/-j0ykCVAQVM
My comment on the video:
ABC Australia, one of the media organisations featured here, is one of the world’s most prolific establishments in promoting the anthropogenic global warming fr@ud and are utterly without honour or integrity (and it goes without saying, have a heavy Marxist orientation). Also, of all governments, the Australian Government has arguably swallowed the fr@ud more than any other and despite being one of the most energy rich nations, now has among the world’s most expensive electricity as a result. It used to be among the world’s cheapest. Our chief global warming alarmist owns and lives in a waterfront property. Al Gore was recently evangelising here.
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sometimes when reading content from the Australian Bokshevik Collective, I marvel how anyone, with any intelligence at all, stomach it in a democracy. If you changed the title of the outfit to some random lefty mob, the content would be spot on.
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… and spat on.
10
David Maddison, it’s a very close run thing. The similarities far outweigh any differences on either side of the Tasman.
The neo-Marxist corporatist globalists have run New Zealand from either side of the partisan political aisle for some time now. The results are self-evident. Devoted to climatism, open borders, eliminating ‘
hatefree-speech’, increasing gun control and confiscation, overwhelming immobilising health and safety, and the trinity of cultural Marxism, political correctness and identity politics, and a thoroughly one-sided ideologically subverted media. New Zealand now ranks among one of the most splintered, divided, exclusive and unequal societies in the Anglosphere; ethnocentric elitism for the chosen designated few with their refutable claim of being indigenous, and a multicultural chaos for the hoi polloi. Meantime, the NZ MSM weaves its colourful tapestry of lies and its cushion of delusion with an unbridled enthusiasm that denies any discourse, debate or counter narrative. Shadow banning and blocking are routine.It’s not pretty and the future is as socially and economically bleak as it is unsustainable should the corporatist globalists continue at the helm … which they won’t.
Even with the ‘children’ and an infantilised dependent society, reality has a way of penetrating the fog.
Choosing destitution, de-population, de-industrialisation and despair over prosperity, freedom and happiness … ultimately, no chance, not even with a social credit score at the end of a cudgel wrapped in razor wire.
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Via Australian-owned de-ffuts – whoops, stuffed – via USA Today via London School of Economics:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/114471569/thanks-to-climate-change-parts-of-the-arctic-are-on-fire-scientists-are-concerned
Morgan Hines, Jul 24 2019: “Satellite images are showing areas of the Arctic catching fire… ‘The magnitude is unprecedented in the 16-year satellite record’… Climate change is making wildfires in the Arctic a far more likely to occur [sic]”. CCCrap ‘science’ plus crock grammar equals jabberwocky jibberish by-and-for juveniles. But wait –
https://www.whaleoil.net.nz/2019/07/good-morning-im-from-stuff-and-im-here-to-help/
“What’s that? ‘There’s no smoke, it’s cloud, there is no fire’…oh, oops…
“Next?… It’s not recent, the photo is thirty-seven years old, and it’s doctored…
“Oh…! Valdez, Alaska, is not even in the Arctic Circle? Are you kidding me?”
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Jo & co, found another paper confirming NZ’s MWP:
Evidence for a ‘Medieval Warm Period’ in a 1,100 year tree-ring reconstruction of past austral summer temperatures in New Zealand
http://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/08fb/cc48a931a0f82e1c97fa79302533b3c1d68d.pdf
“This record is the longest yet produced for New Zealand and shows clear evidence for persistent above-average temperatures within the interval commonly assigned to the MWP. Comparisons with selected temperature proxies from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres confirm that the MWP was highly variable in time and space. Regardless, the New Zealand temperature reconstruction supports the global occurrence of the MWP“. Bold mine.
Edward R. Cook, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA
Jonathan G. Palmer, Palaeocology Centre, Queens University, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
Rosanne D. D’Arrigo. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA
Received 17 December 2001; revised 20 February 2002; accepted 21 February 2002; published 18 July 2002.
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Stuff (stuffed up) is full of tabloid style hype (shyte) to attract advertising revenue. I only look at it to see what happening even that is probably fake news. The other day I saw a completely irrelevant dumb article on where not to visit in NZ..mindless.
50
Candidly, it ranks as the electronic equivalent of toilet paper.
50
‘The identification of a MWP sensu lato in New Zealand adds an important new datum to the debate concerning its large-scale occurrence and supports Broecker’s [2001] argument that it was indeed global.’
Yep it was global, but of importance.
‘This information may help determine the degree to which ocean circulation dynamics and seesawing of deep water production between the Atlantic and Southern Oceans [Broecker et al., 1999; Seidov et al., 2001] have contributed to the timing and development of the MWP and LIA between the hemispheres.’
10
I have Christian friends living in NZ, who have been alarmed at the overt rise of paganism , in particular forms of what appears to be publuc displays of witchcraft. I have often said that a lot of our current problems comes from turning our back on God, so we would expect to see our nation sliding into a mess of its own making. Undr such conditions, Godless Marxism and slavery will thrive, but these are the result, not the cause.
“Yet you have forsaken Me and served other gods; therefore I will no longer deliver you.”
Judges 10:13
If God is all powerful and wont be mocked, then what is written above is likely already happening. The chances of our nations already being handed over to the jackals by God is likely underway, as long as we, as a nation, continue going against God.
This is not a tub thumping exercise, more a calm “well this is what we should expect”. Actions have consequences…
75
Irrelevant rant Steve.
Science is the focus of this blog
NOT Gods, & Religions
83
‘A perfectly good civilisation is going to waste’…Jo’s banner at the head of the page. Not only science Bill.
53
Red thumb not from me though.
31
Trolling behaviour involves being completely off topic, Steve is applying for the job.
30
Bill, the point about religion is possibly relevant in that science is about thinking correctly.
In its purest description religion, Christianity, is about “thinking straight” and acting in a way that benefits the most people.
True the Message has been ignored even by the church superstructure/management for individual gain, but that doesn’t remove the prime message of Australia’s religion.
Without the accepted guidelines of this religion we end up thinking without discipline and end up debating things like the desirability of “drug testing” at entertainment venues.
Maybe we need to re-evaluate how we describe God but the reference to a set of guidelines for society as provided by Christianity is indispensable.
KK
35
Re, LD @ 6.2
20
I like to keep my religion simple.
Whether or not there is a God, The Ten Commandments that Moses brought down from the mountain and presented to the Jews are, when translated into intelligible vernacular, a sound and necessary set of rules for the successful management of human society.
Add the Christian message of “Love thy neighbour”, which I interpret rather as “Refrain from hating”, to make a complete set of rules. It is a fundamental fact that revenge is the least productive of all human activities.
It is certainly a matter for concern that some of those commandments are under attack.
Marx is supposed to have declared that: “Religion is the opiate of the people”. I interpret that as saying that religion makes the people too tolerant of injustice. Of that there is some evidence, but what Marx failed to see is that many of “the people” need their dope.
30
Fair point Steve. Indeed, at a well known University Medical School in New Zealand it is customary to “cleanse” the anatomy dissecting suite of something at the start of the year … it is not exactly clear that is being cleansed in the ceremony, perhaps some superluminal essence only visible to the alleged locals, but it is very scientific.
A local “indigenous” Maori officiates to expedite the pagan hocus pocus, doubtless funded for by the tax payer.
The trinity of institutionalised neo-Marixsm is satisfied: political correctness has been observed, identity politics has played out as it should and cultural Marxism is in full display. This ensemble of fulfilment is iced decoratively by the visible institutional virtue signalling.
Everyone it seems, appears eminently satisfied.
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Yes it wouldnt surprise me at all.
I think what people also forget is Marxism’s official belief system is Athiesm. I think people seem to forget that society is driven by belief systems – whether its beliefe in capitalism, communism, christianity, buddhism or huge mystical purple rabbits – there is a spiritual engine that is always running in every human.
Marxism is corrosive as it takes away people’s hope, and replaces it with a forced complaince to an ugly & repressive political system. I think people are fooling themselves if they disconnect marxism from religion – marxism takes a complete scorched earth approach to everything and its end goal is to effectively making the State infallable and effectively your “god”. Not only that, but it also forces compliance for other weird and loopy ideas.
Last time I looked, communist Mao and communist Stalin were very good at slaughtering those people who disagreed with the offical State stance on pretty much anything.
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That was last century when humanity became beastly after two world wars. Talking of slaughter, why did the US drop weapons of mass destruction on two Japanese cities?
11
To save American lives taking the mainland and stop mass murder in China. A brave and morally correct decision.
10
Ben Shapiro argues that the success of Western Civilisation is a direct result of the synthesis of scientific reason from the Greeks and Judeo-Christian revelation and ethics.
I think modern Western religion (Judaism/Christianity) is important and shouldn’t be ignored.
His video is at https://youtu.be/RVD0xik-_FM
20
Brilliant, especially the last paragraph.
KK
20
“the Australian Government has arguably swallowed the fr@ud “.
True. But who remembers that it was Al Gore, using Clive Palmer as a proxy, who stymied the Abbott government’s mandate to abolish carbon taxes and slash spending?
150
And who stopped the action list on non government organisations and unnecessary government red tape regulations to be dropped.
Many achieved before PM Abbott left that office.
70
Including Tom Foolery’s Climate Change Office
80
You had me at…
10
Their ABC is now blaming “climate change” for the possible destruction of the remains of Notre Dame. Note that I noticed that they changed their headline from “climate change” to the “European heatwave”.
“Fire couldn’t destroy Notre Dame, but the European heatwave might”
http://amp.abc.net.au/article/11348078
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Haven’t time to read it just yet, but have there been reports that the fire has damaged the stonework?
40
Don’t be too sure about the fire not destroying Notre Dame, and just ignore the heatwave.
Most of the masonry of Notre Dame is limestone, which doesn’t cook well. It very much depends on the heat the fire generated, Limestone is chemically calcium carbonate. Dolomits — a common form — is a mixture of magnesium and calcium carbonate. The stone used in ND is most likely to be mostly calcium carbonate.
When heated it will decompose to form carbon dioxide and calcium oxide. This is the basis of lime products such as lime mortar, lime putty etc. much used historically in the building industry. When water is added to calcium oxide the results is an exothermic reaction (heat given off) as the water hydrates the oxide to form a hydroxide by a process of slaking. Hence slaked lime
Do we need to guess what was used to put the fire out?
Do we need to know the temperatures the fire reached on the way up?
It may be safest to pull the ruin down and rebuild it with fresh stone from the ground up. That would be — ummm — rather expensive and a last resort. It really depends on the temperatures reached during the fire.
90
Another nut job. Many ancient building survive intense heat, including ALL those nice Roman and Syrian/Mesopotamian/Egyptian monuments etc. in the middle east, Most survive well over 40C EVERY day! Much older than Our Lady of Paree!
Some people want it gone, looks very sus to me.
80
most ancient buildings aren’t vertical “wind tunnels” or updraught magnifiers.
10
Thanks for that sophocles. I can’t imagine that the damage to limestone or marble would not be substantial.
So the AGW propaganda crowd are getting in early.
21
What the?
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-25/power-prices-lower-under-emissions-trading-martin-parkinson-says/11347752
“The outgoing head of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet says power prices would be lower now if an emissions trading scheme had been implemented over a decade ago.
“”Whatever else you do, Renewable Energy Target, or anything else, they can be no cheaper than putting an explicit price on carbon,” Martin Parkinson told 7.30.
“”The difference is where’s the cost in an emissions trading scheme (ETS)? The cost is quite visible. It’s there, it’s the price of the permit.
“”In the case of the Renewable Energy Target or any other intervention, then often that price is hidden from the view of the consumer. But ultimately the consumer’s paying because it’s built into the price of power.
“”At the moment what we’ve got is a lot of burden falling on energy prices.
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And yet the spot price for electricity hit zero last Sunday, and the long term contracts for power are also showing a similar decline. All this while SA and the NT inch toward gigawatt renewable supply and storage.
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Garbage Peter Fitzroy !
Utter garbage !
We here in SA are being screwed for power.
It has increased in price
Continuously for the past 17 years.
Evidenced by my power bills.
And yes I just got one last week.
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https://reneweconomy.com.au/electricity-prices-across-the-grid-fall-to-zero-as-renewables-reach-44-share-77635/ (also in The Australian, but behind a paywall)
as to storage and renewables in SA
https://www.energy-storage.news/news/huge-battery-system-to-export-cheap-solar-from-south-australia-approved (Also paywalled in The Australian)
As to the price increase, the capitalist model rules here. We are all being gouged, but it is not the fault of the generators, nor is it the fault of the distributors, it is down to the resellers (a parasitic industry if there ever was one)
But hey, profits, and those exec salaries aren’t going to earn themselves you know
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PF:
That “giant” battery (which hasn’t even been started) is 1,000MWh and is obviously intended to store generation when the price of renewables falls in the market. That way they can sell it when the price rises (the same basis as Snowy2). You seem to think that an output of zero is sustainable, rather it is the quickest way to go bankrupt. The developers have to pay for the solar panels (or wind farms) AND the batteries. Only then will those executive salaries be paid.
And so the selling price of a portion of supply dropped to Zero, but that was to ensure they got the Certificates under the RET of $80? per MWh, which then gets slapped onto the bill. The overall cost to the public would hardly reduce.
And that unit might power SA for 43 minutes or Australia for 3.3 minutes, not much cover is it?
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Did you read my point that they are inching toward multiple gigawatt capacity. The main point is that wholesale prices are in decline, most due to rooftop, but also by other renewables. The point that you do not see this in your bill, is down to capitalism, which is working to extract maximum profits, and is being very successful.
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Prices ARE NOT in decline.
Take ANYTHING from “reneweconomy” as close to blatant propaganda lies as they can possibly get (unless you are totally GULLIBLE)
Prices will shoot up again in summer, because rooftop solar and wind CANNOT PROVIDE.
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“inching toward multiple gigawatt capacity”
Yep, and my bank balance is inching towards $10,000,000 !
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Peter: you’re a gullible. Did you look up all the costs and charges and run the numbers through your own calculator? No? Just read — and parroted some journalist? Did you consider you could be being lied to?
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sophocles, I’ve certainly studied the AEMO papers, and noted the max and minimum prices which can be set for generators, poles and wires, and resellers. The situation is clear, the resellers are making out like bandits. They are not much more than a database with a marketing strategy. What is your source? tea leaves?
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PF, you have not shown any understanding of anything to do with maths, economics (or basically anything)etc.
When you say you have studied AEMO, all I can do is laugh, as your view would only ever see what your biased ill-educated mind wanted you to see.
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Inches are lovely, Peter, right up until you remember the rest of the world uses metres.
Inch all you want, battery capacity, you will still be too far behind to be useful.
90
Cue Curly!
for what you mentioned, Supply and storage. (and hey I know you sort of qualified it by mentioning SA and NT, but hey if you want to cherry pick the smallest and third smallest consumers of power in Australia, you could have just mentioned it supplies the equivalent of the all the homes in Boolero Jamestown Road in nearby Appila)
Hornsdale Battery – 90MWH fed to the grid out of a total of 575GWH per day actual consumption. (0.015%)
I think you meant thousandths of an inch.
Tony.
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FP says:
” The situation is clear, the resellers are making out like bandits” .
And they are doing it under the umbraella of “renewables”.
You have correctly identified a rort but refuse to see the entire picture.
Not only are “renewables” expensive in dollar terms, they also produce more CO2 per kWh than even conventional coal fired power let alone
the more CO2 effective HELE coal plants.
As Andy would say: FPKFA.
KK. OK.
30
Six inches was once considered to be the norm.
Personally I’ve never been able to measure up there.
20
… whatever you do, Peter, don’t go to New York City. The friendly fellows who try to sell tourists bridges over the river might just succeed!
🙂
I’m fresh out of stock …
30
ruineconomy.com
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No doubt your paywalled internet sites
Contradict my Origin power bill account.
So thanks but I will believe what I am paying.
And frankly you are peddling
Stale horse poo
Only fit for the compost heap.
60
Its mid winter, dolt !!!
And many people are now using wood for heating because its cheaper.
Storage in SA would last about 10-20 minutes if not for the gas and interconnects to coal fired power.
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I am one of them.
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Zero? Peter, I don’t believe it.
How much power was sold at zero?
Who was selling it?
Who was buying it?
What was the price being paid for power that was not priced at zero?
What costs did this zero price impose through legislated policy on coal fired power stations?
Your zero price is a myth! An extremely disruptive, dishonest myth!
10
Just more Australian Brainwashing Corporation B S
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The only good thing about Martin Parkinson is that he is leaving 2 years before his time was up. Parkinson was a busy man who required 4 Secretaries and 9 Deputy Secretaries under the behemoth Turnbull configuration of the PM’s Dept.
He’s one of the green plants Turnbull brought into the inner sanctum along with Turnbull’s good mate the rabid former Greens candidate Lin Hatfield Dodds as Deputy Secretary. Parkinson is a greenist/economist. Good riddance. If Morrison had a brain and a decent pair he would have drained his inner swamp and dumped Parkinson ASAP last year . . . but then he is Morrison so we shouldn’t expect too much.
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He might have to follow the Civil Service protocols to move out `surplus’ staff, like 12 months notice. That slows things down a bit.
20
From memory Parkinson was given the flick once before by Tony Abbott (reassigned) then Turnbull dragged him back again because he wanted a greenie as his head of staff. Don’t feel bad for him. As the head of a department he was on at least $800g per year.
40
There is something that The outgoing head of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet has missed here.
The Emissions Trading Scheme that failed to get implemented a decade or more ago intended to tax Agriculture’s recycled “emissions” on the same basis as fossil emissions. It refused to allow credits for the sequestration side of Agriculture’s carbon cycle.
This multiple taxation would have quickly bankrupted Australia’s grazing industries, to be followed soon after by all agricultural production. The carbon sequestration industry that it spawned would not have lasted long past that.
This would have enabled the government to transfer the ownership of that 60% of Australia’s now valueless land area which is used for grazing into new ownership (read superannuation funds) without compensating current owners.
Which is Marxist policy. There was much more than power prices at stake.
There is in this present day no change to that proposed policy. It should be noted that but for Barnaby Joyce, the only working business accountant in the parliament at the time, the Howard government would have installed that ETS.
Which reminds me of an interview of Hawke’s acting minister for Agriculture Senator Peter Walsh where he answered the question: “but what if the farmers are forced to walk off their farms?” with: “If the farmers walk off their farms there are plenty of other people willing to walk onto the farms and keep them running.”
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The indisputable fact supported by overwhelming evidence, both historical and scientific is that the climate change alarmists are the real climate change deniers. It’s time all real Western scientists stood up together in a mass movement (partly to protect their careers and partly to embarrass politicians and corporate leaders who support the CAGW myth) and spoke up about this to put a stop to all this nonsense by the the real deniers. Shame on those scientists for not doing so for so long. Unless they do get together and make such an announcement they will never regain the credibility they lost for the advancement of science. More and more people will come to understand this. Already their credibility is at an all-time low and they only have themselves to blame. If they keep it up not only will they lose what credibility they have left they will destroy Western science and allow others such as China, India and Russia to take over. They already have in the field of space exploration. We are now witnessing the demise of Western civilisation in so many areas. It’s not too late to turn things around but as long as the climate change social justice warriors go unchallenged by the Western scientific community the demise will continue. After all that’s their real agenda; the destruction of the West as we know it.
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A well made point PeterS. But as is so often the case today, in the absence of knowledge of history, one is doomed to repeat it. The leading German scientists of their day whether Jews or not, could not stand up en masse. Today is no exception. The few that do are chopped down quickly. The real traitor of a free prosperous society is the MSM. Were they to remain ruthless modernists adhering to the Canons of Journalism the story might be different.
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PeterS said:
… and the real Science Deniers. Don’t forget that last bit.
Propaganda is always propaganda, and that’s all.
70
Many of those clowns seem to actually think that facts are generational fashion accessories that are well out of fashion thee days. So 1974.
30
Many of those clowns seem to actually think that facts are generational fashion accessories that are well out of fashion these days. So 1974.
10
Congratulations to Peter Fitzroy, who some how contributed to or provoked Jo into writing this post.
She also gives credit to George, Dave B and Original Steve.
Take a bow all of you.
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… and many thanks to the editor for her tenacity and hard work.
140
… and the Medieval Warming is still known as the “the Medieval Anomaly.”
Apparently the Little Ice Age had nothing to do with the Maunder Solar Minimum but was caused by volcanic action. … All those ‘Years Without Summers’ are apparently by Volcano …
Hmmm, can’t see it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions
70
I want to add that I am very uncertain about the theory of volcanic action causing all the ‘cold periods’. There maybe some correlation with some eruptions producing temporary seasonal drops in temperatures, as the winter of 1806? Tambora?
One significant eruption that of Taupo NZ (largest eruption on the planet in the past 5000 years! MUST have had significant effect on something..) doesnt even appear on the temp record as far as I can tell. It also occurred during the Roman warm period.China was warm, even Antarctica which should have felt the brunt of it.
40
That makes four of us: me. myself and I; and you.
I’m also very sceptical about humans being assigned the role of historical slaughterer and making species go extinct. The megafauna across NE Siberia and North America was just too plentiful and humans too scarce.
Automatic spear throwers didn’t appear until Roman times and there’s never yet been a semiautomatic bow.
40
Actually the Chinese had a repeating crossbow. No idea how it worked and tens of thousands of years too late for the megafauna, but there you go. Irrelevant trivia for the day.
20
The eruption of Tambora was 1815 and The Year Without A Summer was in 1816, so it had a punch. The impact was felt in Australia, a lot of snow on the tablelands west of the Blue Mountains.
10
The Year Without a Summer = 1816.
20
Wake me when you can block an army between the mountains and shore at Thermopylae or chuck a rock into the ocean from Heny VIII’s coastal fort at Deal. (And how come Rome’s seaport is now an airport? That’s some silt you got there, warmies!)
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I shall be visiting Thermopylae in about one month’s time. I can report on how wide the coastal plain is now.
The 300!
https://www.bing.com/search?q=the+300+movie&form=EDNTHT&mkt=en-au&httpsmsn=1&plvar=0&refig=c735c474bca943cbf5e8facf7e380ed3&sp=4&qs=AS&pq=the+300&sk=PRES1AS3&sc=8-7&cvid=c735c474bca943cbf5e8facf7e380ed3&cc=AU&setlang=en-US
50
Tony Brown’s Long Slow Thaw climate history based on CET Central England Temperature Record which corrects some of the model reconstructions of the hockey stick based on tree rings. The study cross references with the historical record in Britain and also Europe, glaciers advance and retreat, (eg citing Austrian glaciologist Professor Patzett) crop records and farmers diaries. Dependency on the harvest made our ancestors actively aware of weather/climate trends.
https://judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/
60
Since 400 BC there has been lots of silt deposited in the gulf nearby.
And it is an active tectonic zone where the land is being pushed up by subterranean forces.
And thus there is lots of land where there was once sea.
30
I have thrown a rock into the sea from Deal Castle. It’s on the beach. You are thinking of Winchelsea now 1.5 miles from the shore or Rye Castle protecting the harbour, now 2.5 miles from the sea, but that was built by Henry the third in 1245. This was where the Romans landed BC.
30
Portchester Castle?
Built by the Romans. A smaller castle built within the enclosure by Normans who used the nearby harbour. It is now a mile from the sea, and has houses around it where the sea was. Or Harlech Castle in NW Wales where the original Water-Gate is now some distance from the sea.
Of course we could cite the city of UR, which around 2000BC was a port. Today it is about 120 miles from the Persian Gulf, but that is mostly due to silt from the 2 rivers.
Epheses in Turkey was a port in biblical times but is now about 8 miles from the Mediterranean, but that may be due to tectonic up-lift.
50
Haven’t been, but old illustrations of Deal, one as late as the 1720s, show it with its toes in the water. Now it’s off the beach, while more recent buildings are closer. A modern reconstruction shows a narrower strip of beach with Deal just off it.
20
OK folks. Time to read this https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1401-2 maybe focusing on the methods and figure 2 with regards to Jo’s article.
Do her selectively chosen graphs – each presented in isolation – and assertion that there are lots more like these, sufficient as a refutation of Neukom et als meta-analysis of temporo spatial continuity of temperature?
314
‘ … the putative Little Ice Age—is most likely to have experienced the coldest temperatures during the fifteenth century in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean …’
Antarctica shows the AD 1300 Event as a start to the cold times in the Pacific, so I’ll follow this up.
90
~1300 AD is also the time of the Polynesian diaspora from their Pacific islands and atolls southwestwards to the mainland of Aotearoa/NZ. Then again, others say 950 AD. But hey, who the Whakãwe to say.
Maybe they’d heard rumours about the natural hot springs bubbling-up lovely boiling-hot mineral water (or perhaps had smelled it on the wind coming from the SW). Then again, maybe it was that old devil climate change we keep hearing about: damn kiwi birds cranking up their motor-moas on a Sunday morning…
80
see Gabi Plumm’s Skeletons in the cupboard series on youtube:
the redheads (1) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBFpGayPATs)
under the carpet (2)(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8la4EQH8CU)
cousins across the sea (3) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9nGHrLWlic&t=2s)
… the Unofficial and Unrecognised history of NZ.
You might change your mind about it being a “diaspora” but more like a few boatfulls
(canoe-loads?) of rag-tag and bobtails … but then again, you might not … 🙂
30
The AD 1300 Event is visible in China and Antarctica, any ideas on what made sea level fall in the Pacific?
20
While we are on the subject, Patrick Nunn explains the human ramifications in the Pacific.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2007.tb00277.x
20
I like to draw your attention to the buried lines in the ABC article near the end:
“So what’s different about the global warming we’re currently experiencing?
Two things: the warming is being felt (almost) everywhere at the same time, and that warming is unprecedented over the past 2,000 years.”
This is hilarious. By the authors’ own argument this is not a warming period because it is not occurring everywhere at the same time. The end.
So Gee Aye, you can take your blinkered gullible view and stick it.
180
Many parts of the globe haven’t warmed for decades
By their metric… There is actually no current “GLOBAL” warming.
140
thanks Bulldust but last time I looked the ABC was not an international science journal. I was writing about the science.
27
The argument goes that AGW is unparalleled because its universal, while the MWP and LIA were not. It stinks of grant money, but lets focus on the science.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26634438
50
Except warming has not been universal, and has only happened at El Nino events
So.. absolutely nothing to do with human CO2
90
Rustic et als paper is interesting as it finds the same cold period in the eastern pacific overlapping with eastern Pacific mentioned here
Neukom
Rustic
34
New Caledonia was a degree cooler during the depth of the LIA, but it didn’t seem to change ENSO behaviour.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2002-03/idrp-wen032902.php
60
NoTricksZone has an interesting headline to it’s latest post:
Fiddling the data has been noticed.
80
I had better explain it to you Gee aye.
Jo’s graphs are not presented in isolation. They are presented sequentially and together they tell the same story;
There was a Medieval Warm period,
It was Global,
It extended from roughly 1500-1800,
It was warmer than the temperatures we experience today.
It was followed by a cold period known as the Little Ice Age.
Your reference to the Neukom paper is the abstract only; No data, No graphs, No methods and No references.
You might have actually read the Neukom paper. IF so you perhaps you can summarise the missing data and methods.
It seems to me that the Neukom presents roughly the same story, but he(they) try to show that the LIA occurred at different periods around the globe.
110
Correction:
The Little Ice Age lasted from roughly 1500-1800. A fairly obvious error on my part, but I thought that I should explain, in case you got confused.
100
Even Mickey Mann showed the Little Ice age in his failed attempt to hide the MWP. 🙂
130
The LIA began in Europe around 1250 AD and ended in Australia around 1900. We know this from what the icebergs were doing in both hemispheres.
40
Even Marcott showed a significant Medieval Warm Period and a LIA but not so much in his 2013 paper (the other infamous hockey stick paper) but in his Marcott dissertation paper for his PhD thesis (HERE). That dissertation paper used most of the same proxies (73 of them) to show no modern hockey blade up-tick and a pronounced Holocene warming and LIA.
Good old Shaun Marrcott reliable as ever to show anything you wish (and maybe pay for) with a little statistical chicanery and cherry-picking.
Read about the whole sorry story at https://notrickszone.com/2018/12/13/a-fabricated-uptick-marcotts-2013-hockey-stick-graph-debunked-by-marcotts-own-2011-ph-d-thesis/
40
Peter my link is to the paper but I guess I have institutional access so apologies.
Try putting this 10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2 into this https://sci-hub.se
No, Jo’s graphs are just stacked drawing and not created from a combined data-set. There is no way of assessing congruity by eye from drawings.
At best they make the ABC report look silly- a news report based on a press release based on the actual paper.
14
1. Yes, they are not a combined data set. The graphs have come from a number of disparate papers, using different proxy measures and presented together. It is called Meta-analysis.
I imagine that the Neukom paper does much the same thing, since they claim to have data from different parts of the world (Spacial variability) showing that the Little Ice Age happened at different times (Temporal variability)
“meta-analysis
[ˈmɛtə(r)əˌnalɪsɪs]
NOUN
statistics
examination of data from a number of independent studies of the same subject, in order to determine overall trends.”
2. It is easy enough for me to establish congruity from the drawings, since the drawings are in fact graphs and each of them has a time scale along the x- axis.
60
I contend that there is no examination here apart from eyeballing graphs on a web age.
I’ve published meta analyses and I can tell you that you don’t just gather a bunch of papers together.Actually, have a look at what was done in the nature paper for an idea. Its years of work.
25
Good work Gee aye.
Actually that is exactly what you should have done, and what Jo has done. That is what Meta-analysis is. Did you do something different?
No it is not years of work. Obtaining the original data takes years of work, but the meta-analysis takes much less time. You know.
What I did was take a close look at the first graph (Leohle 2008). I noted that the lowest point of the Little Ice age was 1600-1700. The cooling started about 1400 and the recovery was mostly complete by 1800. The other graphs showed much the same story.
The “South African Cave Temperature Records and the GISP2 Greenland Ice temperatures” have a different x-axis (Years before Present). So I subtracted the numbers from years 2000. Hence the Little Ice Age on those graphs should be about 1500 AD, which is what they show.
Simple really.
90
Extra follow up. Your MWP dates are hugely wrong (hint medieval)
16
sorry… I didn’t read down
51
Arguably the real question one might consider posing is whether in the first instance a 2000 year time span is a meaningful statistically valid and significant period in the context of climate variability to adequately allege spatiotemporal chaos, and the second, is the alleged radiatively forced coherence of the last 150 years supposedly seen as climate change sufficient to allege coherence and exclude it from chaos? Third, association is not causation. I think Jo answers this easily and she successfully falsifies the Neukom et al. paper.
So, it has warmed a little in the last 150 years, certainly not unusually or rapidly as is commonly asserted, indeed as many have shown, eg: Holocene records up to 8000 years before present, from several ice cores were examined. The differences in temperatures between all records which are approximately a century apart were determined, after any trends in the data had been removed. The differences were close to normally distributed. The average standard deviation of temperature was 0.98 ± 0.27C. (Lloyd PJ, 2015 An estimate of the centennial variability of global temperatures. Energy & Environment · Vol. 26, No. 3).
Given that climate variation is subject to a wide number of established cycles more readily discerned over longer spans, it seems that the longer time spans would appear to readily demonstrate greater coherence. And they do. On the other hand, looking at the last 150 years shows significant variability with hot periods and cold periods that can legitimately be regarded as chaotic, even if there is a background of warming as there has been since the LIA. If your thing is blaming CO2 for radiative forcing, while essentially ignoring water vapour and clouds then you’ve got a huge problem because you cannot explain an obviously stochastic process. Dodging that and renaming it coherence is fakery, sleight of hand, and simply more scientivism. What is more, it is so obviously part of the narrative that its half-life in fake news will be predictably infinitesimal.
Try not to confuse settled politics with unsettled science. Chaos is not and never will be coherence.
130
Tony Heller (from someones link I cant find on this blog page) says that ‘climate science’ isnt a science its an ‘organized crime syndicate’ ! Brilliant! priceless..Gee Aye and PF take note…
60
David Maddison at #6 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-j0ykCVAQVM and yes, it was so good I had to write it down:
… climate science is not a science – it’s an organised crime syndicate and the press is complicit …
Fork ‘n’ Brill 🙂
60
Mr Leaf
The central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 15th century.
‘The fossil coral record shows slightly cooler SST’s during this time period and an 18% reduction in ENSO variability compared to modern climate. This is consistent with other paleoclimate records from around the Pacific Ocean that also show a reduction in ENSO variability during this time period. The results of this study, along with other studies from around the Pacific, indicate that the increase in ENSO variability in recent times may be an indication of increasing El Niño strength under a warming climate.’
Robert Faddy – Vrouwe 2015
Reading elsewhere there was pronounced ENSO activity around 1740 and as you have a philosophical bent, do you think Gaia was trying to kick start the system?
70
Certainly, the graphs presented by Jo do show a time variance at various sites, which indicates that the cooling/warming were not global. However, some of the methods used to construct those graphs, particularly boreholes, are notoriously imprecise in the dating of the values. So it could be that if you accept the error bars in all the studies, they are saying the same thing, and those earlier excursions of hot and cold are indeed worldwide, just like the current one.
212
“just like the current one.”
Brought about by the meandering jet stream due to the low solar activity.
Same thing happened in the 1940s as the world started to cool into the “New Ice Age” scare.
Timing for the boreholes etc is, as you say, somethings a bit dubious, but they all show that warmer period, followed by a much cooler period.
Both the MWP and the LIA existed, globally.
110
And in the NH at least, the MWP was obviously significantly warmer than now.
If you take a realistic view of all the available data, the world is still very much in a cooler period of the current inter glacial, barely a degree or so above the coldest period in 10,000 years.
100
Back at the start of the 21st Century, Dr Brian Fagan was a professor of Archeology at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He wrote two books, the first of which is “The Little Ice Age, how Climate made History 1300-1850” (ISBN-13 978-0-465-02272-4) and the second is “The Great Warming; Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilization” (ISBN 978-1-59691-392-9) c. 800 – 1200.
The name The Medieval Warm Period was coined by Hubert Lamb. The book “The Great Warming” shows clearly its Global Extent from Europe, across China, through South America and across Africa.
Those who want to delete the LIA and the MWP are beating their heads against historically documented historical events.
40
‘ … those earlier excursions of hot and cold are indeed worldwide, just like the current one.’
It depends on what the oscillations are doing at any given time, an interconnection starts a stadium wave. Hubert Lamb said it came from the east and eventually reached Europe.
50
It’s an outside chance at best, el gordo. The data shows a quicker increase compared to that in the MWP.
27
” The data shows a quicker increase compared to that in the MWP.”
UTTER RUBBISH, they don’t have the resolution from around the time of the MWP.
Averaging different time streams from different places with low resolution, cannot be compared to current day daily resolution and data manipulation.
Again, your blatant lack of comprehension of basic maths leads you to just “believe” what someone tells you. No rational thought involved, right PF !!
Now, where is that empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2, PF?
LACKING as always, sidestepped, IGNORED, because you know there is none.
80
Not true, Andy – for example I believe nothing you post
19
And 9 out of 10 here believe not a word from you Peter.
We consider you the local gulling
TROLL
20
That’s because you know you can’t counter anything I post.
You are INCAPABLE of it.
Yes, we know you have zero interest in any actual FACTS that could disrupt your little fantasy anti-science world.
And yet again you make it blatantly obvious to everybody that you have almost zero comprehension of basic science and maths and absolutely no intention of ever learning.
So please let’s see you yet again try to sidestep, RUN-AWAY, distract from posting any actual EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE of warming by atmospheric CO2.
The headless chook award is still yours, PF. 🙂
50
Simple question for a simple-minded PF.
What is the temporal resolution of warming up to the MWP?
Current warming is nothing but a blip.
Comprehension of basics is just SO HARD for you, isn’t it 😉
And another question..
Do you have any empirical evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
RUN, little headless chook.. RUN !
40
“I believe nothing you post”
Hence you are destined to REMAIN perennially and wilfully IGNORANT.
That is YOUR choice for your life.
30
Peter is not a troll, they deliberately talk off topic.
Spent my youth at Deltoid where I earned my stripes as a ‘concern troll’.
30
Unfortunately for you, Peter, Andy is right far more often than you are, which is why your utterances are treated as being so risible.
Do you have any plans to improve yourself?
50
‘The data shows a quicker increase compared to that in the MWP.’
The concept of a world temperature is ridiculous. It depends on where you are living at a given time, salivate over these graphs.
https://notrickszone.com/global-warming-disputed-300-graphs/
40
Gee Aye its a geophysical fact (LIA MWP etc. ) just get over it!
50
I don’t understand the relevance of your statement. The existence of these periods is not under question by anyone or anyone being discussed.
Also, to what is its referring to? Did you mean me?
24
It appeared that you were denying the LIA and MWP.
50
The Australian Brainwashing Corporation has finally ‘discovered’
that Bob Brown doesn’t like wind turbines.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-25/bob-browns-opposition-to-wind-farm-labelled-hypocrisy/11345200
Only 10 days after the Australian reported it.
Our own wonderful ABC
NOT !
120
I am thinking of getting some T shirts printed. There will be two , one will read,
“Really,
Is that true, or did you hear it on the ABC?”
The other will be,
“Really.
Is that true, or did you read it in the Age ?”
Would there be anyone interested?
100
Earl,
I would suggest the first might read “Is that true, or did you hear it on their ABC?”
I wonder whether many people outside Melbourne read The Age. I was trying to think of one myself but
“Piltdown man blames Global Warming on phlogiston” wouldn’t get through to many of the gullible.
120
The thing about phlogiston is that from memory it endured about 60 – 80 years and just gradually fizzled out, so to speak. It didn’t ‘go away’ suddenly in spite of evidence and science to the contrary. Given the intensity, durability and deranged image of self-destiny, the current batch of erstwhile rulers have simply too much vested in perpetuating their crimes against humanity.
I think they’re going to need a nudge.
40
Lest we forget… orgone. As a 14-year-old I read Wilhelm Reich’s book on the Austrian psychoanalyst’s ‘orgone box’ and became quite excited at the prospect of growing up in the future.
T-shirt: “CCCrap? Orgone!”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orgone
50
“I am thinking of getting some T shirts printed…’Really, Is that true, or did you hear it on the ABC?'”
You could also sell that T-Shirt in the US and we’ll just assume it means the American Broadcasting Company.
90
While he was an advocate of having a free press, Thomas Jefferson also cautioned that, “If you do not read the newspaper, you are uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed.”
I’m also in favor of a free press. Unfortunately, they are all-in for one political system only, and about as far from ‘free’ (as in, unencumbered by ideology) as one can get.
My regards to all,
Vlad
20
According to CH9 News weather there have been more above average temperature days in July 2019 than in past years, days reaching 20C.
I will still order another truck load of timber for the wood heater.
80
Everyone is talking about the anomalous heat in Sydney, Graham Creed at the ABC has been chortling The climate reality is that too hot then too cold is a typical Southern Hemisphere winter as experienced in the 1950s, its a global cooling signal.
90
The average temperature during the Jurassic is cited as up to 25°C.
Of course there was plenty of animal farts to heat the atmosphere.
60
Same in the Cambrian when the CO2 was at 7000ppm! Proof CO2 doesnt cause warming.
50
their getting desperate to drag people back to believing.
good luck with that
50
Unfortunately many people can be influenced by repeated propaganda.
Recently an air conditioner installation tradesman commented to me that there definitely is warming taking place, he experiences it getting warmer every year. Age about 35 years.
Every or almost every weather news broadcast contains brainwashing commentary to convince viewers that global warming is underway.
70
So (proof of) warming to him is the number of units he installs..
40
The language is always significant
‘climate change deniers have sometimes pointed to epochs like the so-called “Little Ice Age” or “Medieval Warm Period” to argue that the current global warming is one among multiple similar global climate events.’
So Climate Change deniers are denying Global Warming. I wish the people making up this stuff would stick to Man Made Global Warming with the emphasis on Man Made or there is no problem, or at least nothing we can do anything about. How Global Warming produces all these other effects is shrouded in mystery, especially with a tiny change of something like 1C in a century. That’s not life threatening. It’s not even a fraction of the summer to winter variation experienced in most places in the world! How can it even be significant?
Secondly as 2/3 of the planet is ocean and the ocean contains 1400x as much heat as the atmosphere is it possible to talk about a planetary temperature. Aren’t they talking about an atmospheric temperature and that largely over land?
This whole business of a planetary temperature on a world scale over summer/winter/night/day/all latitudes is a strange animal. Even if you could create one, what does it mean? If the whole ecosystem including the entire oceans are not included, what is being measured? A second degree effect.
All heat comes from the sun and 1000x as much is stored in water but we are studying atmospheric temperature at ground level in a few places? And some are arguing that therefore the Medieval warming did not happen or is irrelevant? If all we care about is the temperature in Europe and China, what else matters?
Did the temperature in Antarctica affect the quality of life in Rome? Or the climate in Peru? Or crops in Siberia?
This is what happens when science becomes opinion and consensus and is driven by random money handed out for no good reason.
140
That’s 1C in 100 years. If we get another 1C in another 100 years, where will that matter? Singapore? Antarctica? Rome? What exactly is the problem? If the average year round temperature in any part of Australia increased by another 1C, where is the problem? Where would anyone consider the Climate Changed? Nowhere.
90
If you look at the sat data all the hot spots are over land, which is of course is what to expect. The temps above the ocean are not measured by many thermometers as you need a bouy or island, therefore mostly measured from satellites in the modern age. NO measurements where possible pre satellite to any extent. Therfore there is almost NO records of ocean temps (air above ocean not water temps) pre industrial times.
70
This chart gives a pretty good idea of the TOTAL LACK of decent ocean temperature coverage even up until the satellite era.
There can be NOTHING of any accuracy gleaned from so little data.
https://i.postimg.cc/8PT3MYqB/ocean-temp-coverage.png
71
in one word – HadSST3
010
Goes back to 1850. Even by 1920 there were few thermometers on land and even the BOM does not trust those.
However it’s nice to know everyone knows the temperature of the planet at all points in 1000 AD. Chinese satellites? And how accurate are those proxies and how do they calibrate them a thousand years ago?
Still, if a computer program says something, it must be right. Especially if everyone agrees with it. Better than the bad old days before consensus when you needed actual unequivocal proof.
90
What are you trying to say, there is a method to these datasets, but hey, let’s listen to you instead. After all unsubstantiated claims are bread and butter here
05
Poor PF, we have ALL notice YOUR continual unsubstantiated claims
You have ZERO-EVIDENCE for anything. Just yap, yap
You can’t even produce any science to defend the very basis of your irrational anti-science cultist belief system.
40
hadSST3 – shows that there are measurements pre satellite. So claim is substantiated, unlinked the howling at the moon method you use
08
Poor PF, data and facts are NOT KIND to you, is it little man !!
Unable are you to even read a simple chart.
https://i.postimg.cc/8PT3MYqB/ocean-temp-coverage.png
Coverage was extremely poor, and limited mainly to a few shipping lanes.
Basically no coverage at all for the southern oceans.
Phil Jones from Hadley even ADMITTED as such.
Why do you choose to remain so blatantly IGNORANT, PF ????
Seems it is your natural and immutable state. !
—–
Now.. after your failed attempt at a slither and weave..
… oh might headless chook !!
Where is your empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2?
60
As Macbeth said ‘physic to the dogs’. As I write later, archeologists are seeing dead leaves, dead trees and settlements appearing from the edge of melting glaciers in Greenland. Without a single thermometer or computer or the internet, I can explain this. Can you?
50
Bermuda coral shows that in 1850 the SST was ∼1.5°C cooler than today.
50
“HadSST3”
With basically no southern ocean measurements ( <20% coverage, and that only very spotty and irregular), until ARGO in 2005
Even NH had ,0% coverage in the 1950's
SST is almost as imaginative as the surface temperature farce.
50
typo error fix
Even NH had 20% coverage in the 1950’s
40
Heard on the radio today and for the next few days we will be experiencing higher than normal temperatures. The weather people are making it sound like we are in the middle of a heat wave. I’m actually still cold now in Sydney and had the aircon heater on for part of the day. This is an example of how much the global warming myth is being perpetrated. They will say anything to cause the impression we are experiencing an existential threat and we must cut our emissions ASAP, meaning we must destroy the West but the rest of the world can continue to build hundreds more coal fired power stations. If that doesn’t classify the alarmists as terrorists against the West then nothing will.
110
Looks like China is doing what is good for China. Good on them!!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/23/china-energy-to-expand-ultra-low-emission-coal-fired-power-executive/
Maybe Aussie should take note of this :
” Xiao said the company would gradually shut down small and polluting coal-fired power units and replace them with efficient ones, noting that total capacity would continue to increase but at a slower rate of growth.”
I am sure his use of the word polluting is referring to genuine particulate pollution –not CO2.
80
‘I am sure his use of the word polluting is referring to genuine particulate pollution –not CO2.’ YES Thats what they are referring to, it is a big problem with air quality there. I have witnessed it.
80
BBC is in heatwave heaven on most of their programming. listen how Matt McGrath gets to 70-80 metres of sea level rise and the obliteration of the planet.
from 27min29sec to 35min:
AUDIO: 52min59sec: 25 Jul: BBC OS: Ben James: Europe heatwave breaks more records
Our environment correspondent answers listeners’ questions about extreme weather events and climate change.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172wrvmrgzh2s7
20
Knew this would happen, they will insist on records tumbling when in fact they are not. I would guess that most of the temps reported are very close to built up areas and heat sources. Of course the same places 100 years ago has less concrete.
” gets to 70-80 metres of sea level rise” where do these utter morons get there info from. So where exactly do you think all that water will come from…space ships!
70
These events (per the main story) in my view are solar caused. There is some mechanism / cycle involved not just the usual spot cycle.
The moron warmistas cant get over the fact that the climate cant drive itself. But dont let facts get in the way of a good s c a m.
60
FakeNewsMSM has plenty of reports characterising a few alleged record hot temps in France, Germany & Netherlands as being a widespread (28-country) European heatwave, e.g.
How to Stay Cool During Europe’s Heat Wave
The New York Times-8 hours ago
Across much of Europe, temperatures were setting records this week…
plenty are now adding an alleged record for a fourth country – UK – at Heathrow, e.g:
26 Jul: news.com.au: Europe sizzles in record breaking temperatures across Britain, France, Germany and the Netherlands
All bets are off as Europe swelters under the “Saharan plume” that has brought record temperatures across the continent, stripping people of their clothes and their dignity.
by Victoria Craw; with wires
The UK temperature smashed July records on Thursday…
Heathrow TWEET: Met Office…READ IT
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/britain-set-to-sizzle-in-recordbreaking-39-degree-heat/news-story/9f88d33215c06bb21fcff0095b4fb5a4
25 Jul: BBC: Why is Heathrow so hot?
By Tom Edgington
Reaching 36.9C, Heathrow briefly broke the UK record for July’s hottest day ever – before Cambridge achieved 38.1C.
That beats July 2015’s previous record of 36.7C, which was also at Heathrow…
The weather station at Heathrow is located very close to the northern runway, so with aeroplanes constantly landing and taking off, does it make a difference to the temperature?
Not according to Paul Williams, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading…
“Planes make a negligible difference,” says Professor Williams.
“Every time you use energy – whether it’s from a plane’s engine, or even just switching on a light bulb or taking a shower – it’s eventually turned into heat.
“But all of that is a minor influence compared to the effect of the urban heat island.”…
Heathrow – with its large black asphalt runways and airport buildings – will naturally absorb more heat.
But London is very built-up, meaning surrounding areas should also be affected in a similar way.
This can be shown by comparing the average monthly temperature of Heathrow to nearby Kew, eight miles away…
The temperature graph above shows there is hardly any difference between Heathrow and Kew – but both areas are hotter, on average, than the rest of the UK.
That suggests that it is the buildings, rather than planes, contributing to the higher average temperatures…
But what about CO2 gas levels expelled by the planes?
Prof Williams says CO2 is a greenhouse gas and it does trap heat but, because it mixes very quickly with the air, it warms the entire climate, not just Heathrow.
“If you measure the CO2 levels above Heathrow they wouldn’t be any higher than other parts of the UK because it spreads so quickly,” he says…
The Met Office told us that their weather stations are built to very specific standards and any biases that could affect temperature records are taken into account when taking down readings…
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44980493Heatwave:
11
Look here https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-351.61,49.91,622
at the heat distribution, totally disputes ANY EU wide heat wave!
A low in the north Atlantic above the UK is dragging warm air across southern England.
The REAL circulation data totally reduces the hype to a non event!
30
Also more on heatwaves..well fake ones.
“Low solar activity shifts (NH) Jet Stream further
South and it gets more and more wavy and WILD –
making more extremes and dramatic wild weather changes.
There is a 60 year cycle in Jet Stream waviness and most weather parameters”
Worth a read, latest from Piers Corbyn
http://www.weatheraction.com/resource/data/wact1/docs/PiersCorbynSWINDONisFAB220619CHALLENGEtoWARMISMafterPortoPresI.pdf
40
‘There is a 60 year cycle in Jet Stream waviness …..’
That makes sense, I’ll look for the mechanisms.
20
Thing is, its not actually 60 years
There was a strong occurrence around 1977, (40 years ago)
… and as far as I can determine another one around 1940. (40ish years before that)
Mechanism ?? maybe a change in direction (up/down) in solar energy ?
Does it drive the AMO as well?
Climate science is far from settled.
40
that was badly written.. try again.. !
… maybe a change in the direction of the amount (more/less) of solar energy ?
30
The 60 year cycle maybe a myth and its connection to the PDO tenuous.
‘The PDO data changes from positive to negative about 1945, reaches into positive values again about 1975, then appears to “switch” back to negative in the 2000s. Remarkably, this 60-year period is referred to even though the data before 1945 does not support a continuation before then. And referring to Paleoclimatological studies of the PDO, there is also no evidence of a persistent 60-year PDO cycle.’
Bob Tisdale
10
‘Climate science is far from settled.’
A quiet sun leads to a negative NAO and typically cool wet summers in Europe, but that is not happening and I don’t know why.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
10
Yes you do
10
Oh my god, it must be human induced gorebull worming.
00
GG doesn’t, though. !
00
24 Jul: BBC: Climate change: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months
by Matt McGrath
The idea that 2020 is a firm deadline was eloquently addressed by one of the world’s top climate scientists, speaking back in 2017
“The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can’t be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020,” said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute.
The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time.
“I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival,” said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently…
The Prince was looking ahead to a series of critical UN meetings that are due to take place between now and the end of 2020…
Reasons to be cheerful?
Whether it’s the evidence of heatwaves, or the influence of Swedish school striker Greta Thunberg, or the rise of Extinction Rebellion, there has been a marked change in public interest in stories about climate change and a hunger for solutions that people can put in place in their own lives.
Ideas like the green new deal in the US, which might have seemed unfeasible a few years ago have gained real traction…
Reasons to be fearful?
With exquisite timing, the likely UK COP in 2020 could also be the moment the US finally pulls out of the Paris agreement.
But if Donald Trump doesn’t prevail in the presidential election that position could change, with a democrat victor likely to reverse the decision…
Either step could have huge consequences for the climate fight…
But the challenges are huge, the political involvement patchy…
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48964736
25 Jul: UK Times Ireland: Climate department still buying diesel cars
by Ben Haugh
PIC: climate child protester w/ caption: The revelation could anger protesters who want Ireland to set an example on cutting greenhouse gas emissions
The Department of Climate Action has acquired four diesel vehicles over the past 18 months but still does not own an electric or hybrid vehicle.
The department oversaw the government’s climate action plan, published last month, which aims to ban the sale of new fossil-fuel vehicles and have a million electric vehicles on the roads by 2030.
A document released to The Times following a freedom of information request shows that the department owns 60 diesel vehicles, all assigned to the government’s earth science agency.
The Geological Survey Ireland (GSI) website describes fossil fuels as a “key contributor” to global warming. “When burned they produce carbon dioxide which gets trapped in our atmosphere and this causes the greenhouse effect,” it says…
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/climate-department-still-buying-diesel-cars-6xvstzv5x
11
12 years… 18 months… how about November this year… we’re doomed!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/25/prince-wales-duchess-cornwall-announce-new-zealand-tour/
Charlie and what’s her face are
bailingbludgingpaying a visit to these fine colonial shaky shores in four months’ time. On their own dime? Heck no! Bloody peasants are going to be paying for the royal posteriors’ visit – literally – as they demand their own personal toilets for when theyhobnobmix with the natives.Guess crazy old Wingnut and his bit on the side want to have a last-gasp look at the Antipodes before they sink beneath the boiling seas… or sumpthink.
30
Hilary (on TV1) will be in Heaven,
— more Royals visiting the Colony.
30
The Royals are drumming up business now that Boris is in charge, with his no deal Brexit.
But I take it as a personal snub that they are not visiting the mainland.
10
some examples of MSM suggesting “heatwave” is Europe-wide:
Europe boils in record-setting heat wave
International-Deutsche Welle – 4 hours ago
Climate records fall as Europe roasts in heatwave
The Australian Financial Review – 14 hours ago
UK has hottest July day ever as Europe broils in record heat
NBCNews.com – 16 hours ago
Historic heat wave shatters all-time temperature records across Europe
Axios – 14 hours ago
108 degrees in Paris: Europe is shattering heat records this week
Vox – 9 hours ago
on BBC last nite, I heard that one alleged “record” – in France, from memory – was the hottest since 1858. tried to find a mention online, but only found the following!
3 Aug 2018: BBC: Too hot? In 1858 a heatwave turned London into a stinking sewer
By Judith Burns
Suffering in the hot weather? Spare a thought then for the population of London back in 1858, a year of sky-high temperatures and the Great Stink.
That year, the London Standard reported temperatures of over 30C by the middle of June and the weather stayed hot for several weeks…
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-45009749
another laugh:
25 Jul: SMH: Spring arrives early as Sydney set to break heat records
by Peter Hannam
(Weatherzone is owned by Nine Entertainment, publisher of this website)
Observatory Hill posted a top of 20.3 degrees on Thursday, marking, at eight days in a row, the longest ever spell of 20-plus degrees days in Bureau of Meteorology data going back to 1858…
Climatologists say the background warming from climate change is increasing the odds that temperature records will be broken, with a reduced likelihood of record-cold days.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/spring-arrives-early-as-sydney-set-to-break-heat-records-20190725-p52asq.html
and a goodie:
‘It reminds me of home’: Emiratis say British heatwave is a breeze
The National UAE – 14 hours ago
10
why are temps which mosty are just hotter than some in the 40s being represented as “records”?
24 Jul: UK Telegraph: Europe’s heatwave: Eurostar trains breaks down as records tumble in Belgium, Netherlands and Germany
In the Netherlands, the temperature reached 39.1C, breaking the previous record of 38.6C set in August 1944, while in Belgium, the mercury struck 38.9C, beating the previous high of 36.6C from June 1947 in records dating back to 1833…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/24/tigers-fed-chicken-ice-cubes-europe-swelters-record-breaking/
and how meaningful is a new record that is allegedly just “0.2C higher than the record”?
25 Jul: BusinessGreen: Climate crisis blamed as temperature records broken in three nations
by Jon Henley, Guardian
(This article first appeared at the Guardian. BusinessGreen is part of the Guardian Environment Network)
The Dutch meteorological service, KNMI, said the temperature reached 39.2C (102.5F) at the Gilze-Rijen airbase near Breda on Wednesday afternoon, exceeding the previous high of 38.6C set in August 1944.
In Belgium, the temperature in Kleine-Brogel hit 38.9C, fractionally higher than the previous record of 38.8C set in June 1947…
Germany’s national weather service, DWD, said it believed a new all-time national high of 40.5C – 0.2C higher than the record – had been set in the town of Geilenkirchen near the Dutch and Belgian borders, but had still to confirm it…
After several cities in France broke previous temperature records on Tuesday, including Bordeaux, which hit 41.2C, the national weather service, Météo France, said Paris was likely to beat its all-time high of 40.4C, set in July 1947, with 42C on Thursday.
https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3079529/climate-crisis-blamed-as-temperature-records-broken-in-three-nations
25 Jul: LocalGermany: AFP: Germany records highest ever temperature as mercury hits 42.6C
The German Weather Service (DWD) confirmed that 42.6C was recorded at its station in Lingen, Lower Saxony in western part of the country, on Thursday at 6 pm – the hottest temperature since records began…
On Wednesday, a previous record of 40.5C was reached in Geilenkirchen, near Mönchengladbach.
Until yesterday, the previous heat record was 40.3 degrees and was measured in the summer of 2015 in Kitzingen, Bavaria…
https://www.thelocal.de/20190725/heatwave-new-record-in-germany-as-temperature-rises-to-426c
00
is it simply presumed that records in the 40s or whenever were the hottest (or coldest) SINCE records began?
BBC World Sce was hanging on a UK record last nite, to the point of embarrassment. however, when it comes to the Heathrow “record”, is the Met Office claiming it adjusts for UHI in the Stevenson screen itself. ditto for the airbase in The Netherlands mentioned in the Business Green/Guardian piece.
posting the following excerpts, partly so I can correct the url for the piece, which is incorrect in comment #23.
25 Jul: BBC: Heatwave: Why is Heathrow so hot?
How is temperature measured?
To get a standardised temperature, a weather station, known as a Stevenson Screen, is used.
These white boxes, which contain a thermometer, are installed 4ft (1.25m) above the ground and are dotted all around the UK…
The Met Office told us that their weather stations are built to very specific standards and any biases that could affect temperature records are taken into account when taking down readings…
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44980493
20
When working in Germany in the 2003 summer, temperatures of 36 and 38 were occasionally reached. Nothing abnormal, but very unpleasant due to the lack of fans and air conditioning.
00
I just by accident watched the ABC News on TV
There was an article about the heat wave in Europe
With interviews of locals.
Funny thing was all the locals were excited and happy
To bask in warm sunny weather
Stripping off to shorts
And swimming in the local rivers & pools.
Not a single complaint
Except from the ABC interviewer !
And then I realised
For them this was warm weather
Was a rare opportunity
When they don’t have to worry about
Being frozen by the cold which is the bloody norm in Europe.
60
Heard a similar thing on the radio here tonight: all the locals were “excited and happy” and enjoying the rare warm sunshine. One old dear was ecstatic she didn’t have to fly to Spain or Greece to get some “nice weather” – how’s THAT for change!
60
… the airlines profit will drop and the tourist operators will be poor!
20
Like Melbourne, if the Northerly strikes in mid summer, the heat is incredible. A few hours later it can be gone. The hot air is crossing from Africa to France to England. If it was cold air, it would be called a Polar Vortex and a result of Climate Change. As it is, the blast of hot air is called Global Warming. In this wonderful world very cold winters and very hot summers are all a result of CO2. As is everything in between. We will have to spend trillions to stop this.
The press also sounded very disheartened that London did not break the record set in 2013. Of course being a huge city of concrete and bricks and power stations and airconditioners and trains and tube stations and buses and concrete corridors and freeways for the 11million people who weren’t there a hundred years ago has nothing to do with the record temperature or a fluke of wind direction. It’s all Global Climate Change.
40
I also remember being trapped in the (now demolished) truly awful Stalin era Rossiya hotel in Moscow in 37C heat. It was absolutely stifling. No airconditioning.
Still, that was before man made Global Warming. It was just hot. It was called summer.
30
My Dad came from the UK – from Liverpool.
When I was young I asked him why he brought us as 10 pound poms to Australia.
He said because so many mornings in England he missed Summer
While shaving !
He loved Summer here in Oz
50
Yes, precisely. If you do not like the Climate you can change it. In many cases, if you only want 1C, move about 200km in the direction you want.
You can move to places with no winter. Places with no summer. Places with half and half. You can live by the sea where it is always cooler or live in the middle of the desert with 55C in the day and freezing at night. But if you only want +1C, you can wait a hundred years. Or pay fortunes to alter the planet’s CO2 level somehow, not yet explained. Perhaps.
You see after at least $10Trillion spent on windmills and solar panels and blowing up power stations, there is no evidence that the CO2 growth has stopped. In fact it did not even stop when the temperature increase stopped, which should be embarrassing but for true believers, CO2 driven global warming hothouses can behave like that. The computer says so and all the people who make money from it heartily agree.
30
Wow.
10
Now why would anyone tell lies about the weather?
Presidential hopeful Kirsten Gillibrand has announced that if elected the people of America will pay $10Trillion to go fossil fuel free by 2050.
Now that’s a lot of money. A lot of money. A lot of windmills and solar panels. From Germany and China.
Just one country. With say 90 million families, that is $110,000 per family over the next 30 years. Or $4,000 a year. That’s a big slice of income in a country where the Democrats are also arguing for a basic wage of $15 an hour, or under $30,000 year. AOC (A Occasional Cortex) even argues that everyone should be paid, job or no job. As she say, the government just has to print the money. These are caring Socialists. The rich should pay.
As for the Medieval warming, we can see the old leaves appearing and the tree trunks from receding glaciers on the edge of Greenland. That ‘proves’ man made Global Warming and we can see the settlements. But is also proves it has been warmer very recently. With radio carbon dating we know that was in 1,000AD. Why does it take people with models and computers to tell us otherwise? Why do they deny that it has been warmer? Why is it always the caring socialists, communists, Greens?
Try $US10,000,000,000,000.
Still with $1,500,000,000,000 being spent every year to lower CO2 and its not working, the total is more like $45,000,000,000 worldwide. So what’s wrong with $100 Trillion?
All to lower CO2 and prevent Climate Change. That’s because the current $1,500,000,000,000 has no noticeable impact on steady CO2 growth.
And of course man made Global Warming is true, it is caused by CO2 and only more windmills will stop it. I will post my BSB number for the millions. Or gold bars. Like the 7 1/2 tons Malcolm gave away without application to ‘save’ the Great Barrier Reef, without knowing how.
40
Still think of all the Green jobs. In climatology. Environmental activism. Giant international conferences with private jets and limousines. Jobs with the EU and UN and more flying to parties where you can discuss CLimate Change with your friends and condemn others for driving and flying.
40
Australians are already paying AUD $1,000 p.a. to someone, in Chyna or Germany!
30
Jo your server seems to be running very slow tonight.
20
It’s the heat wave – climate change is wot done it! And I just thought it was my old Mac running s l o w . . .
50
It was very pleasing to see that in the UK they are researching fusion. Think of it. Infinite fuel. No radioactive waste. The power of the sun. So lets spend $1.5 Trillion a year blowing up power stations, clearing forests on ridges for windmills, building transmission lines across pristine landscape and filling the coastline with windmills and installing solar panels on houses, destroying their architecture.
What could a fusion research group do with $US1,500,000,000,000 a year that would be better than windmills? The era which put a man on the moon has gone back to windmills. Brilliant.
60
Sorry, article behind a paywall but here’s the front page. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/.
50
We don’t need that F’ing article behind the paywall.
Your comment at #30 said it all.
10
just for the record, the MSM isn’t even saying the heatwave is in the European Union countries. there are a couple of mentions of Western Europe, but the majority simply say Europe.
therefore they are using a few alleged heat records in 3 countries, plus Heathrow airport, when there are 50+ countries in Europe. so dishonest.
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26 Jul: UK Express: Europe heatwave: Temperatures reaching an unsustainable level for humans – shock warning
EUROPEANS face imminent danger from the scorching heatwave sweeping across the continent, with experts warning it could lead to tens of thousands of deaths.
By Sean Martin
Europe is facing the hottest temperature on record, and some scientists are warning that the heat is approaching levels which the body cannot cope with…
And Europe and the UK are approaching this moment, according to Tom Matthews, a lecturer in climate science at Loughborough University.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1158130/europe-heatwave-latest-weather-forecast-2019-weather-today-europe-report-bbc-weather
25 Jul: NPR All Things Considered: For The Second Time In A Month — A Heat Wave Is Scorching Europe
A second heatwave in one month has smashed temperature records across Europe on Wednesday…
ARI SHAPIRO, HOST: …Temperatures are breaking records across the continent…
AMOS: But more Germans are rethinking. They say heat waves are the new normal, and climate change is here to stay. Air conditioning installers have been flooded with calls as Germans absorb more drastic signs of a changing climate…
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/25/745392593/for-the-second-time-in-a-month-a-heat-wave-is-scorching-europe
01
25 Jul: Economist: Greenhouse-gas emissions are increasing the frequency of heatwaves
And it will get worse in future
EXTREME HEAT is ruinous to productivity, particularly if you are a criminal. Several American police forces posted messages to their social-media accounts last weekend declaring a moratorium on crime. “It is just too hot to be outside committing crimes,” wrote the Park Forest Police Department in Illinois, on its Facebook page. In some cases, it seems to have worked. “We have had zero customers stay the night at our ‘hotel’, so we appreciate all of the criminals adhering to the heat advisory,” tweeted the Malden Police in Massachusetts on Sunday…
The question on many people’s minds is whether these changes, and specific events like this week’s temperatures in America and Europe, are caused by greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere. For years, the semi-official line was that no single weather event could be blamed on climate change, only trends. That began to change in 2004, with the publication of the first “attribution” study…
Since then, research of this sort, intended to study how climate change is already promoting extreme weather, has grown rapidly…
Attribution work does not concern itself only with heat. Floods, storms and cold spells also carry a climatic fingerprint…
(This article appeared in the Science and technology section of the print edition under the headline “Climate blame game”)
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2019/07/25/greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-increasing-the-frequency-of-heatwaves
27 Jul: Economist Editorial: Heatwaves are killing people
Adapting to the effects of climate change is helping but is not enough
IN RECENT DAYS heatwaves have turned swathes of America and Europe into furnaces. Despite the accompanying blast of headlines, the implications of such extreme heat are often overlooked or ***underplayed…
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/07/27/heatwaves-are-killing-people
***underplayed?
Carbon Brief: The Guardian, Daily Telegraph, Sun, Metro, Daily Mirror and the Independent mention the heatwave on their front pages. Most of these publications mention the role of climate change in increasing the chances of the heatwave in their front-page stories, though the Daily Mirror does not. The Sun says: “Experts at the Met Office say there is ‘no doubt’ climate change is playing a role in the unprecedented temperature highs.” The Independent carries comments from Jon Shonk, a research scientist at the University of Reading. He says: “There is a clear link between climate change and heatwaves. What we are experiencing today is an extreme, record-breaking heatwave event. But as the climate warms, these extreme events will become even hotter.” Jaise Kuriakose, a lecturer at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Manchester, tells the Independent that the UK climate in future years could become more like that of Spain or southern France. He says: “What we can confidently say is average summer temperatures will be around 40C in the south, and 36C or 38C in the north. And that’s not necessarily the peak – just the average.” The BBC’s flagship late-night current affairs programme Newsnight last night aired a segment called: “UK heatwave: Is climate change to blame?”, while a piece in the Economist says that “if your hunch is that this kind of extreme weather is more common today than it was once-upon-a-time, you are correct”. Europe’s heatwave also garnered coverage from US publications, including CNN, the Washington Post, the New York Times and CBS News.
YET I HEARD A BBC “CLIMATE EXPERT” LAST NITE SAY THIS YEAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A HANDFUL OF HOT DAYS SO FAR.
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Jon Shonk? University of Reading? Ha ha!
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The Greenists are so honest about their dishonesty.
Here is an example from Cosmos which is supposedly a Science Journal :
https://cosmosmagazine.com/biology/peer-pressure-could-nudge-people-towards-sustainable-diets
This study by a bunch of vegans wanting to save the planet provides
“Evidence that peer group values are
More powerful than scientific facts
In shaping people’s beliefs and actions
About climate change.”
Yes I know we all knew this already.
But here we have the Greenists
Publishing a non science article
Ina scientific journal
That explains how to do it.
Jo maybe this is worthy of being a separate post.
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I shied away from looking at Cosmos when I learned that it is associated with the Chief Scientist. https://mumbrella.com.au/the-royal-institution-of-australia-to-take-on-cosmos-magazine-530875
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Serp, It is another part of the brainwashing science media.
And the Australian Brainwashing Corporation is busy this morning with two major articles supporting it’s Global Warming brainwashing program including this zombie one :
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-07-27/climate-change-denial-zombies-killed/11291724
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Greta knows best . When you have UN,EU,UK,Sweden listening and adoring to a brainwashed child the battle is lost .
Common sense and true science has been demonised by the force of greed in those who are benefiting .
The climate scam has very deep roots , goes back decades ,has infiltrated the core of western society .
It actually appears to be a plot to destroy the wealthy economies , in the name of saving the world .
Australia’s wealth is built on resources , yet we have states and parties trying to close it down.
The infiltration is almost complete now into our education,legal,councils,public service and media organisations .
If our terrible drought turned into a flood soon ,it would still be blamed on adani .
Only our govt’s can control the situation , but state and fed are voted in according to local influences .
Media bias influence the voters more than facts or politicians actions .
How many blackouts or elec price rises will it take before people take notice ?
Or will they just think they are saving the world as they have been programmed to think .
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Morning all.
At the risk of sounding logical:
If global warming is man-made, unprecedented and catastrophic, then can someone please explain how the propose “remediations” will fix things? If they can’t explain any or all of the above, then why are we trashing peoples lives trying to change something we know nothing about?
Still waiting for an answer either way, but especially about how some people conclude global warming is man-made, unprecedented or such a bad thing.
By the way, did you hear that cricket chirping, or is it just me????
Cheers,
Mike
(B.App.Sci, Met, MBA)
100
Factcheck?
Spring arrives early as Sydney set to break heat records
Observatory Hill posted a top of 20.3 degrees on Thursday, marking, at eight days in a row, the longest ever spell of 20-plus degrees days in Bureau of Meteorology data going back to 1858.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/spring-arrives-early-as-sydney-set-to-break-heat-records-20190725-p52asq.html
20
Adapt 2030
It’s Not About Oil Anymore, Its Prospective Grain Grow Regions Coming Online (858)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Jt6RUm26uc
20
The human-caused global warming over the past 150 years is, I assume, based on instrument readings? Because the GHCN network which pundits like this tool are using to “prove” the instrumental record is infallible suffers from massive temporal and spatial coverage deficiencies.
It’s also well-known that for scientific integrity purposes you don’t combine instrument readings with proxy records that continue to the present day, i.e. Michael Mann’s infamous hockey stick, especially when the latter diverges from the former (not to mention, is based on a single Yamal spruce tree out of 112 in the study.)
50
Really? Who says? Why not? Cite a study that examines this with empirical data.
If you can justify combining data and provide error statistics for your analysis then go for it.
Combining data like this has been very important since the beginning of formal science. And if you like Jo Novas analysis above, it is an example of what you dislike without any stats whatsoever
10
Let’s just keep blaming Edward the Confessor and Ethelred the Unready.
40
The argument in the ‘new’ study revolves around the word ‘coherent’, which is science babble for ‘global and synchronous’. Simply put, they are claiming that the current warm period is happening everywhere and at the same time, while the Medieval Warm Period was regional and occurred at different times in different regions. This argument has been floated around for decades. and studies making the claim all derive from the same scientific malpractice.
Temperature data from 1,000 years ago are derived from proxies. There were no instruments measuring temperatures around the globe until very recently. If we wish to compare previous periods that were measured with proxies to a current period, science demands that we use the same method to sample both periods. We cannot put satellites in Medieval skies or put a global network of thermometers in Medieval huts and sailing vessels, but we can still use proxy data to measure current temperatures. When we do that, we find that the current warming is no more ‘coherent’ than the Medieval Warming, or any of the other warming periods that are (almost) universally recognized from the past.
The illusion that the current warming period is more ‘coherent’ is a product of technology, not scientific understanding. When technology allows us to discover something that was previously unknown, real science assumes that the thing existed before, but was just unobserved. Climate ‘science’, however, often makes the opposite assumption, if it fits the desired narrative. In this way, weather events observed with the latest technology are deemed ‘unprecedented’, even when more primitive observations indicate the current events are completely mundane, including recent heat waves, droughts, tropical storms and forest fires. The argumentation in this study is akin to arguing that Jupiter’s largest four moons formed 409 years ago when Galileo first saw them through his telescope, and that the other moons of Jupiter are even younger.
This practice in climate studies and press releases is scientific malpractice!
20
Every time I ask an Alarmist this simple question, I get a lot of garbled fiddle-faddle. They always insist the MWP was regional, yet they themselves are perfectly happy to use temperatures from a single measuring station beside a highway and close to an actual greenhouse vent in order to declare Climate Emergency. Now we know that the MWP was a global event and that it likely was quite a bit warmer than it is right now and all that with pre-industrial levels of CO2. If that’s no proof that CO2 is not a factor in climate development, what is? That alone should be quite a basis for damage claims for trillions in wasted research that found contrary plus the alternative energy investments that have been made with tons of taxpayer money. Its time we got active.
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The Sun is the main driver of climate change. Not you. Not CO2.
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