Entrancing dance of data by Tony Heller (aka Steve Goddard).
As he describes it, this video shows the data from all 1,657 NOAA GHCN stations in Australia.
His post: Australia Shows No Warming
Australian temperatures last 150 years. Graph.
By this data, there’s not much warming in Australia since 1900.
Tony’s data presentation is brilliant and simple, yet there will still be zealots who cling to their ridiculous beliefs
280
I’ve tried to stay abreast of Tony’s posts about the Bureau of Misinformation in the past week or so. But to be frank it’s been a bit like being the target of a huge firehose : far too much to fast in too short a time.
No time for digesting and thinking and verifying. No time to think through possible critiques of what he is presenting. That’s NOT good presentation.
Days ago I also tried to watch the video link for this post from Tony Heller’s site. And gave up. For me it was just pointless. Not good images & not good music. So what’s the point. It does not assist ordinary people understand why Global Warming is a scam.
I’ve left the odd comment suggesting he slow down but he has ignored me..But it’s his blog. he can do what he likes.
In order to get a real life, evidence based perspective I am sticking with Ken’s Kingdom’s careful investigation of all the BOM’s weather station network.
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/
105
Hi Jo, Craig Kelly PM, has released an important post on his Facebook page this morning
The size of the Stevenson Screens used by BOM makes a difference in the temperatures recorded !
Since the 1990’s BOM has replaced almost all the larger old fashioned Stevenson screens
Used to measure temperatures,
With smaller screens
And the temperatures measured are warmer.
https://www.facebook.com/CraigKellyMP/photos/a.117937578400885/1271769136351051/?type=3&theater
Craig’s article is based on a peer reviewed research paper.
Very interesting !
200
Bill, I agree with you on the “music” but, although it is quite difficult to find a particular weather station, the moving feast shows quite clearly that at all the weather stations the temperature trend appears to be almost flat, even back to the turn of the 20th Century.
I was, with a bit of shuffling back and forwards in the pause mode, able to find the trends for Sydney Mascot Airport, Richmond and a few others, so it can be done.
100
Music was horrific and totally distracting.
HAd to turn the volume down to watch it
00
Jo here is a suggestion for finding a BOM weather station. If you don’t know where a BOM weather station is, simply plu the name into Google Earth. It will take you there showing streets & buildings. It will even show up the BOM’s Stevenson screens at it’s sites if you now the site’s coordinates. And the BOM actually provides those coordinates in the PDF’s it has available online for each station via the Climate Data Online.. And you can also press the ‘less” button on Google earth to get a regional or national level perspective.
I suspect that something similar could be done in Canada, UK, South Africa, New Zealand, India Ireland and the USA as well..In fact the whole Anglophone world. These national weather bureaus all started out collaborating with each other in the 1890’s. And adopted similar methodological standards such as the Stevenson screen.. So locals in those places might be able to do what Ken has done with the network of weather stations in those countries. Checking if the individual weather stations are compliant with the national bureau’s own national site standards.
At it’s very basic this is all about GIGO : Garbage In = Garbage Out.
Non compliant weather stations means lots of Garbage In.
And lots of Garbage Out
The question to ask is the Global warming Scare based on GIGO from non compliant weather stations ?
90
Intriguing that Australia is now the whole planet, the long term GLOBAL temp graph shows a steady rise —- the usual cherry picking from Jo.
012
Yet another empty moronic drive-by by little-mick.
Real data shows 1940’s peak with temperatures similar to now in the NH.
Seems the WARM 1940s also existed in the SH.
And this post is about Australia, not the globe.
——
Only 200 years or so ago the world was in the COLDEST period in 10,000 years.
Be very glad for the slight but HIGHLY BENEFICIAL warming.
60
Michael 262. So I’m not allowed to post on Australian temperatures and call it Australian temperatures?
“Intriguing”.
60
Oh really Jo ?, you’re not trying to extrapolate like you usually do ?.
03
EMPTY nonsense is all little mick has.
Try some actual content to your blathering next time, child.
30
Me262.
I mentioned that I had seen an ME109 on display a week ago but didn’t mention that there were also outside a Hawker and a Russian Mig21. Never to fly again.
Don’t you feel any embarrassment about coming on here and letting us see the chain and dog collar you’re wearing.
I like dogs and most of them seem to have more self respect than you.
Time to take off the collar and begin to think for yourself.
KK
00
KKK
The old warbirds are still being refurbished to fly, try utube.
The finger pointing here is hilarious, try repeating this guff outside where you actually have to produce evidence.
00
Repeating empty mindless twitting seems to be all you are capable of, mickey
You are totally EMPTY of any evidence of anything. A total nonce.
40
When you look at it the evidence of pinger fointing by occasional romantic blog cloggers living still in memories of WW2 is significant, but for mostly incorrect reasons regarding the end state.
The assumption is only true if the precursor of the anticipated end state is accurately predicted prior to the enactment of the process under assessment.
Should that mid process data not be available then the initial baseline would be eliminated from the assessment resulting in substantial disconfirmation of the proposed analytical pathway.
KK
00
The Gleissberg Minimum around 1900 indicates that the Southern Hemisphere is out of phase with what was happening in the Northern Hemisphere, like skating on the Thames.
91
So does the polar see-saw.
50
The bipolar see-saw is more related to much larger epochs, but we can’t rule out the possibility that it was a miniature version of the same phenomenon.
40
Running the video slowly a few things turn up.
Adelaide (Parafield aerodrome) opened 1927 but figures start in ~1956 (after it ceased being the major aerodrome)
Bathurst gaol built in 1888 but figures start ~ 1853 **
Cobar P.O. built 1885 but figures start ~ 1880
Gunnedah Pool built in the 1950’s (as War Memorial) figures start ~1877
Mt. Lofty figures start 1990 yet Clement Wragge had a paper in The Proceedings of the Royal Society quoting figures from Mt. Lofty from 1884 (Stephenson screen differences v Adelaide)
Mt. Wellington towers over Hobart yet they only thought to set up on top in 1960????
Nobbys signal station (Newcastle) built 1858 but figures start only in 1956, but there were comments recorded in the newspaper about readings in 1939,***
** There was almost certainly some sort of detention centre at least from ~1830 but not on the same site and there is no indication of when they were joined.
***see also http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/what-happened-at-nobbys-signal-station-near-newcastle-record-heat-in-1878-goes-unseen/
Some of the early starting dates are unlikely, and probably not from Stephenson screens. Other sites have obviously been truncated for some reason (too hot?). No wonder the guy in the Climategate emails was complaining about the australian figures.
160
When the local postmaster or lighthouse keeper was recording temperature in their note book in 1890 I know they had no idea that the world economy would be dependent on the accuracy of their record to a decimal point of a degree Fahrenheit 130 years later. I also know that when the data entry kid in the weather bureau was entering historical temperature records into the computer database in the 1980s had no idea that record would be scrutinised to a decimal point of a degree.
Running through these data sets at speed highlights the fragmented nature of the records. How many stations are there that have data going back to 1890?
These records are not fit for the purpose of being the foundation for declaring a global emergency; where just 0.5C will cause human extinction. Anyone declaring such based on this data deserves to be labelled a DINGBAT.
201
Rick read the History of the BOM written by David day in 2005 : “The Weather Watchers” Trying to understand the eather 7 forecast it was a serious business for meteorologists from the 1870’s/ And the importance of the weather stations was recognised by ordinary Australians. So your remarks are way off beam.
51
True to a point, but it takes a computer can give you a trend line accurate to 100th of a degree – Using data hand collected from instruments accurate to 1/2 a degree.
54
100th of a degree heh ?
Natural variation or just simply Garbage in = Garbage out ?
60
Surely 100th of a degree is irrelevant . .
GeoffW
60
I assume you are being cynical – I hope you are, as I ticked you up….
Yes, there is delicious irony in summarising data collected from coarse measurements and reducing them to an unmeasurable accuracy.
70
PRECISE to a hundredth of a degree, but not necessarily ACCURATE nor CORRECT
https://labwrite.ncsu.edu/Experimental%20Design/accuracyprecision.htm
50
To be clear, I am not understating the dedication of the people who diligently read and recorded those temperatures. On the other hand I can guarantee that the meteorologists of the 1870s, who set up the data collection network, contemplated declaring global climate emergency based on their systems being repeatable to the decimal point in degrees Fahrenheit.
We are being told that humanity is doomed when the global average temperature increases by 0.5C.
The disrespectful aspect of the temperature record is BoM’s homogenisation of that record to trend the results of climate models.
70
Rick the BOM has ignored all the data from before 1908
That data was recorded by people who wanted to create a network
Of accurate weather stations across the colonies.
It’s suppressing it’s own history.
Tony Heller is right when he says this.
And the individual posts on his blog sites
For about 20 Australian weather stations
Starting in the 1880’s
Demonstrate this.
But the video clip from him this post ?
It’s not fit for any purpose beyond momentary amusement.
41
The proportion of all daily Fahrenheit temperatures recorded as a rounded x.0F at 110 ACORN stations (excluding Learmonth opened 1976 and Rabbit Flat opened 1970) prior to 1972 was 69.9% for minima and 67.4% for maxima (http://www.waclimate.net/round/index.html).
Among the 57 ACORN stations that were open in 1910, the 1910-1971 rounding proportion was 58.6% for max and 60.9% for min.
The BoM’s Blair Trewin analysed 94 of the stations from 1957 to 1971 and his estimate of all temps rounded to x.0F was 51.3%. Of course, it ideally would have been about 10%, which it is nowadays. It can be argued that despite either being unable to clearly see or unwilling to record the decimal reading in the thermometers, all observers diligently and accurately rounded either up or down from the 0.5F that for some reason they could see – 50% either way. On a more rational level, it can be argued that a greater rather than smaller proportion of them saw something like 67.6F, 67.7F or maybe 67.8F and jotted it down as 67F, for example. Their instinct would have been that 67F was more or less true but 68F was a bit of an exaggeration because they could see that the base number was 67. Most of these people were farmers and post office staff, not meteorologists.
The bureau did three independent tests comparing 1967-1971 with 1973-1977 which each resulted in a probable 0.1C mean temp artificial warming that coincided with metrication (temperature rounding fell sharply as of 1972), but chose not to adjust for this in ACORN homogenisation because record Australian rainfall and cloud cover during 1973-1977 may have caused a natural warming of temperature. I didn’t make up that last sentence. The mean temp influence of F rounding from 1972 back to 1910 and before was probably between 0.2C and 0.3C artificial cooling.
10
Thanks.
00
Nothing to see here will be the catch cry of the green menace ,would love to see that graph over 200 or more years because there could be a trend and probably is .
Nothing is unprecedented despite what alarmists would have you believe .
Getting reports of a tornado that hit not far from here yesterday at Peechelba , if true the feedlot has taken a direct hit with major damage and stock losses being reported through Facebook .
There has been tornadoes hit nearby some years ago so not an unknown weather event in the area .
50
The music is great . .
But the flickering ‘pictures’ show the haphazard nature of the data.
Is this set of data really good science and should it be used to control our destiny?
GeoffW
91
Great to see my home town of Salmon Gums research station data since 1927 in there. Remote farm about half way between Norseman and Esperance. Seems like a slight rise in both min and max.
I digitised grandparents rainfall data entries from their farm BOM booklets 1920 – 1932 but unfortunately no temperature info. Heaviest years or months often followed, or preceded, dry ones.
110
This is a brilliant display piece by Tony Heller which shows the stability of the climate and the shortness of some of the records in an entertaining light show. Those who are not blind will be able to see.
221
Hear! Hear!
80
… and the music rocked!
I’m not a big Who fan, but Teenage Wasteland was the perfect fit for the delinquent teenager otherwise known as the Boom-Bang-BoM! Like most of us, they may eventually grow up and become a discerning, wise, knowledgeable ‘adult’… or maybe not.
All our mad media ever mentions about Oz is heat! drought! fire! yet with near-record snowfall on the tops after a continuous barrage of cold fronts all winter, the children (and adults) are out en masse enjoying yet another freezing snow-filled day on the slopes:
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Perisher-Blue/webcams/latest
No wonder Greta Green-Grinch looks eerily similar to the grimacing Grinch in this image:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2709692/mediaviewer/rm3573760000 (The Grinch, 2018, movie poster)
At least here, down under, we know how to make the best of whatever Nature throws at us and enjoy it. Perhaps Greta will grow up one day… or maybe not.
10
without the support of the FakeNewsMSM, the FakeClimateData would have been exposed long ago.
Youtube: 50sec: 5 Sept: YIPAP: The High School Textbook Indoctrinating Students
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35yuwKcst3s
6 Sept: Daily Caller: Progressive Website ThinkProgress Is Shutting Down Because Nobody Wants To Buy It
by Chuck Ross
ThinkProgress, a top progressive website operated by the liberal think tank, Center for American Progress, is shutting down on Friday after a 15-year run.
The decision was made after the site was unable to find a buyer.
The Center for American Progress (CAP) has tried to sell off the website after operating for years in the red, according to The Daily Beast (LINK)…
https://dailycaller.com/2019/09/06/progressive-website-think-progress-shut-down/
6 Sept: Daily Beast: ThinkProgress, a Top Progressive News Site, Has Shut Down
A search had been underway for a new publisher. But none was found.
by Sam Stein, Politics Editor & Gideon Resnick, Political Reporter
As for the actual website, thinkprogress.org will continue to exist. But it will no longer function as an independent enterprise focused on original reporting. Instead, according to Nayak, it will be folded “back into CAP’s broader online presence” as a sounding board for policy and political analysis by existing CAP and CAP Action staff experts.
“Conversations on how to do so are just beginning,” said Nayak, “but we will seek to reinvent it as a different platform for progressive change.”…
***Nayak did say that ClimateProgress, which started as an independent blog before merging with ThinkProgress, will be taken over by its founder, Joe Romm…
The site combined original reporting with an attack-dog mentality to target Republican lawmakers and conservative ideas. A testament to its success is found in the list of prominent alumni currently working in politics and journalism.
That list includes Faiz Shakir, who now serves as Sen. Bernie Sanders’ campaign manager; Amanda Terkel, the D.C. bureau chief of the Huffington Post; Nico Pitney, the political director at NowThis; Alex Seitz-Wald, a top campaign reporter for NBC News; Ali Gharib, a senior news editor at The Intercept; and Matt Yglesias, one of the founding members of Vox…
ThinkProgress’ staff had ballooned to more than 40 before the number began to dwindle this year…
https://www.thedailybeast.com/thinkprogress-a-top-progressive-news-site-is-shutting-down?ref=scroll
41
most of the articles still showing on Climate Progress website are by E.A. Crunden, including:
Think Progress/Climate Progress
Hurricane Dorian’s nightmarishly slow pace is linked to climate change
by E.A. Crunden
https://thinkprogress.org/climate
TWEET: E.A. Crunden
Hi all — CAP is closing @thinkprogress so I need a job! I cover climate and environmental issues, politics, policy, science, food, agriculture, you name it, and I’m an experienced editor as well as reporter. Would love any/all job leads!
6 Sept 2019
I love my coworkers with all my heart and I am so ferociously proud of them for working despite frankly horrible conditions to produce excellent work. Having them in my life has made it richer and fuller and I am so grateful…
reply: Laris Manescu, Romanian in DC w/ love from Texas. Comms @SierraClub, Clean Transportation
This was devastating to hear today.
Your writing and climate coverage is golden. I’ll pass along anything I hear/see!
random other replies:
Greenwire is looking for an editor. – or at least they still have the posting up.
Bloomberg is hiring a Climate Science Reporter LINK Bloomberg
Nicholas Thompson, Wired:
And, also, we’re hiring. Come join us in Dubai:
https://twitter.com/eacrunden/status/1170039058195783680
4 Sept: Bloomberg: Careers
Climate Science Reporter, New York, NY
Bloomberg is looking for a science reporter to expand our coverage of climate change. The successful candidate will write about the latest research on climate change from the world’s leading researchers and policy circles, including the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The reporter should have a strong familiarity with the scientific press and be able to spot and explain significant findings across relevant disciplines, including climate sensitivity, the pace of sea-level rise, damage impact estimates and projections of the rate of warming.
Climate risk is a topic of growing importance to our business-minded readers, and our science writer will help bring those to life for them. In a newsroom that prides itself on authoritative use of data, the science reporter will work in close collaboration with dataviz colleagues to produce innovative visualizations of climate research. This reporter should be equally comfortable pitching profiles of scientists and sweeping data-driven projects that assess the risks of coastal flooding while also responding to breaking climate news with smart context and analysis…
We’ll need the science reporter to…READ ON
Similar jobs
Climate Science Reporter
Climate Science Reporter – London
Climate Reporter – Shanghai
Climate Reporter – Beijing
Climate Reporter, Europe
Climate Reporter – Hong Kong
Climate Reporter, U.S.
https://careers.bloomberg.com/job/detail/77088?nr=40
40
reminder:
3 Feb: Newsbusters: $3 Million in the Hole: Steyer and Soros-backed ThinkProgress Shutting Down and Selling
The (Daily) Beast continued, “ThinkProgress has never been profitable. In the past, it has made up its shortfalls with contributions from CAP and CAP donors.” Big contributors to CAP and ThinkProgress coffers included big liberal mega-donor names such as TomKat Charitable Trust (owned by liberal billionaire Tom Steyer), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Silicon Valley Community Foundation and The Sandler Foundation, who are all listed in the “$1,000,000 or More” section of CAP’s donor list. Open Society Foundations (owned by George Soros) is also listed as a major donor in the “$100,000 to $499,000” section…
This is the same ThinkProgress that just recently spent a good amount of its coverage defending Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal, (D-NY) by accusing Republicans of creating a conspiracy theory that alleged the GND would “ban hamburgers and airplanes.” They flatly ignored AOC’s own awkward office FAQ release that said the goal was for ‘net-zero’ emissions “because we aren’t sure that we’ll be able to fully get rid of farting cows and airplanes that fast [within 10 years] (***LINK).”…
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/business/joseph-vazquez/2019/07/02/3-million-hole-steyer-and-soros-backed-thinkprogress
***FROM GREEN NEW DEAL FAQ LINK:
Yes, we are calling for a full transition off fossil fuels and zero greenhouse gases. Anyone who has read the resolution sees that we spell this out through a plan that calls for eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from every sector of the economy. Simply banning fossil fuels immediately won’t build the new economy to replace it – this is the plan to build that new economy and spells out how to do it technically. We do this through a huge mobilization to create the renewable energy economy as fast as possible. We set a goal to get to net-zero, rather than zero emissions, in 10 years because we aren’t sure that we’ll be able to fully get rid of farting cows and airplanes that fast, but we think we can ramp up renewable manufacturing and power production, retrofit every building in America, build the smart grid, overhaul transportation and agriculture, plant lots of trees and restore our ecosystem to get to net-zero.
11
You have love Sydney Observatory Hill at 4:21. Especially when you would really expect that the development of a freeway and the Sydney Harbour Bridge and all the buildings of the Rocks and Watsons bay would have had some effect. None.
There is no reason to believe the Southern Hemisphere is anything like the Northern Hemisphere. Apart from the Great Southern Land, there’s hardly any land and I do not count Antarctica, a giant 3.5km tall iceblock the size of South America on top of the land. It’s not melting any time soon, certainly not in Bonny Prince Charles’ second prediction of disaster 12 years. (Has he no memory?) Then most of the Southern Hemisphere is water 4km deep, the greatest store of surface heat on the planet and unlikely to change much even over millenia, so unlike the potboilers of the Caribbean and the Mediterranean (awful spelling, both of them) and the Black Sea and the endless shallow gulfs and straits and seas of Asia and Asia Minor.
In fact if you turn the globe to Tahiti, you cannot see land, as the Pacific alone covers half the planet. It is a complete ecosystem which generates its own oxygen and maintains its own CO2 levels.
That’s our environment, a planet which is 75% covered in very deep water, a huge mass 350x heavier than the air (1 atmosphere per 10 meters) and with more specific heat (4kj per 1kg per degrees C against 1kj), the heat capacity of the ocean is 1400x greater than the thin layer of air.
So measuring just air temperature might be fine for humans, but it is all effect, not cause. Between the summer/winter sun heating the surface and the stored energy, we get all the storms, the hurricanes, the tropical storms, the monsoons and the Gulf Stream. Underneath you get the big ocean currents like the Humboldt and the massive vertical and horizontal circulations which give us the El Nino and La Nina and the PDO. Evaporation gives us the clouds of water without which we would not have rain. Still someone wants to tell us it’s a 33% change in tiny CO2 which controls our air temperature and our weather and ‘extreme events’ and we should all stop breathing or give everyone all our money. $444 Million in cash, 7 1/2 tons of gold bullion to ‘save’ a reef which has been there for millenia? Obviously someone is just making it up, as confirmed by Dr Peter Ridd.
When there is a scam which cheats people out of their money, a Nigerian Prince who wants to put millions in your bank account, or even an email friend trapped overseas who needs cash urgently, the Fraud Squad bemoan the fact that people fall for the most unbelievable stories. There is no law against idiocy, which is lucky for the Greens. A combination of greed and gullibility and even charity or guilt which leaves them far worse off.
For the IPCC, Global Warming of just half the planet has been a real problem. That’s why they needed Australia to help. What the BOM needs to go with this damning data is a big hot chocolate fudge. Homogenization to the rescue, the altering/interpolating or elimination or cherry picking of the data. No need to believe the raw data when the models tell you what the reading should have been!
How can you organize the rapid distribution of wealth from rich Western democracies and to make bankers rich without a climate emergency? Those poor Polar bears, walruses and penguins. They need your cash.
Consider we now have the most expensive electricity in the world. We used to have the cheapest coal electricity and after adding huge amounts of far cheaper wind energy, we now have the most expensive.
Can any one spot a problem with that logic?
310
Mum will be 100 in November, she’s often commented that the weather is like ‘used to be before the 70s’. Interestingly the Brisbane Exhibition (think State Fair for our American friends)
has always be held in early August. Why? Because it was the premier social event of the year, and August was warm enough for the new spring fashions. Before the air conditioning socialising in the heat of QLD summer wasn’t done.
140
Queensland now has more people than Victoria, despite the lack of jobs and the humidity and the tropical storms. Like Florida. And like Florida they have built beautiful homes and cities in a tropical paradise at sea level which get smashed with tropical storms. And we are told it’s our fault.
The insurance companies love climate change because they can push up everyone’s rates. Here in bayside Melbourne, one company increased the cost of house insurance x7 because we are in a flood zone now, being only 5-7 metres above sea level on a nearly closed bay? This is despite no observable change since my great great grand parents landed nearby in 1842. It seems the facts don’t matter if “The Science” is in. Just another form of climate profiteering. Then you get Dubai with daily summer temperatures of 47C. Absolutely everything is airconditioned including train platforms and all the food is flown in for 4.5Million people. All run on fossil fuel. So sustainable. Like nearby Qatar where they had the Climate Conference.
It’s all insane, but the airconditioner has changed life on earth and where people live. As long as you have cheap electricity, which is now banned it seems. Can you imagine running airconditioners on windmills on a boiling hot still summer’s day in Dubai?
If you set out to start man made Global Warming today, you could not get it off the ground not only because there has been no change since 2003 but also because giant cities like Shanghai (37 million people) could not live without airconditioning. Even New York or London in summer can be appalling, despite their high latitude of 41N and 50N! Moscow is awful in mid summer at 37C and high humidity, but we humans adapt our environment, except that apparently that is now illegal. It is Green policy that we should pay our carbon indulgences and suffer and bring out our dead, like medieval times while the frequent flying Green holiday by the endless pool in Dubai.
180
Victoria has a million more people than Qld.
10
During summer 😉 I think there must be at least 2mill up here right now.
00
Just a reminder…
Lumping different climate zones into one because they fall within the bounds of the vast Commonwealth of Australia is one exercise in futility. Perth+Sydney divided by two does not mean anything. Hobart+Darwin divided by two does not mean anything. What you get is not an untruth but a useless statistic.
The other exercise in futility is claiming you are measuring temp with mean max when you are frequently registering the presence or absence of cloud at potential peak warm time.
Really, the scienciness has to stop and the science has to start.
190
“1,657 NOAA GHCN stations in Australia” starting in 1876. NOAA itself was started in 1970.
Does not pass the pub test.
320
And were you pubbing it
At a nice booze up
When you wrote this nonsensical
Irrelevant comment ?
Go sleep it off Fitz !
100
Got a picture of the steam powered satellite that was used for the 1876 measurements?
118
Go sleep it off Fitz
You’ll feel better then.
And maybe make sense
80
Splitting hairs is becoming unfashionable, better to concentrate on why the southern hemisphere was overheating while the northern hemisphere was cool and wet.
We should be able to work out why. If not CO2 or solar forcing, perhaps its associated with some kind of internal dynamic?
100
You only have the pub test, permanent sozzled by the look of it with an inebriated mind.
NOAA pulled previous reading into their data base, idiot !!
71
Peter, Heller is analyzing the NOAA GHCN dataset. The data will be coming from the same sites as the Australian BOM.
Everytime a site is moved to a significantly new location Eg post office to airport, it gets a new name (unless it’s streaky bay for some reason). Hence the number of sites is inflated by the number of moves.
I don’t use the GHCN myself, so Tony’s the man to ask…
PS: GHCN is ground based. Don’t know where you get the “satellite” idea from. Australia had plenty of thermometers in 1876. Just look at historic news archives.
180
So it uses BOM data, and therefore can only be as trustworthy as you believe BOM is. I forgot the /Sarc tag because I thought it would be self evident
116
Its okay, El Nino caused the warm spike.
‘The first stage ran from 1895-98, with the summer of 1897-98 suffering some of the most extreme recorded weather in Australia – heatwaves, bushfires and dust storms in the south-east (New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia) and cyclones in Queensland. The El Niño then subsided and switched into a mild La Niña later in 1898 before another El Niño in 1899- 1900. After a short break, there was a profound El Niño from 1901-03 which brought the most severe period of drought to many regions and is infamous for its dust storms.’ Don Garden 2010
70
Javier in reply to Wilde (Climate Etc)
‘During cooling times Niños become more frequent, more heat is extracted from the subsurface Equatorial Pacific and moved outside the planet. This manifests as warming at the surface (where thermometers are) as the heat flux is increased.’
Cheng, L., et al. “Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO.” Journal of Climate 32.12 (2019): 3529-3556.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0607.1
50
“therefore can only be as trustworthy as you believe BOM is ”
have you been looking at Ken’s posts on BOM’s weather stations ?
Apparently NOT.
But NO we do not trust the BOM
Ken has checked out over 350 of them
And he ‘s getting a ~ 20% fail rate.
79 in total as of today !
Failed because they don’t meet BOM’s own guidelines for all it’s weather stations
.
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/
And Jo there are other BOM weather stations which have been moved but not renumbered. Not just Streaky Bay. I have not kept a count Barabra comes to mind. And Katoomba in the last week alone. And of course MT Barker which is what started off this investigation of BOM’s weather stations.
80
So NOAA, using that data is now trustworthy, you are making my point
018
This is PRE-ADJUSTED data, little trollette.. !
GISS is a whole heap of manic fabrication, which bears basically zero similarity with the original data.
Please STOP continually displaying your abject ignorance. !
130
Fitzroy ?
You truly are pissed
Or could you be just completely ignoring
The facts of history.
120
Bill
The early data, before the introduction of the standardised Stephenson screens, was not reliable
The early data sets were not as complete in terms of the total number of stations
As Jo said, many stations were moved and given new names (which is why there 1657 NOAA stations)
NOAA did not start until 1970 ergo, and has grandfathered 6 other datasets since that time
All the problems in the BOM datasets are therefore incorporated into this set
Lastly it does not agree with GISS, UAH or any other dataset
http://media.bom.gov.au/releases/20/bureau-of-meteorology-media-statement-no-1-climate-records/
Hence the fail on the pub test meter
114
Of course it doesn’t agree with GISS.
GISS is a fabrication, and as you say, bears little to no resemblance to actual past data.
Modern BOM data is also massively fabricated and adjusted.
They ARE altering data, using the term “homogenisation”.
To say they are no altering data is a blatant LIE.
UAH is only 40 years, so what are you comparing it to.
———
In other words, you are talking GARBAGE, yet again !!
110
“All the problems in the BOM datasets are therefore incorporated into this set”
WRONG.. most of BOM’s “adjustments” started well after 1970.
80
The data TH uses is UN-ADJUSTED, REAL DATA that has not been through the data torture that GISS and BOM have inflicted.
Sorry if REAL DATA upsets your sense of “science”
70
“and has grandfathered 6 other datasets since that time”
And gullible little PF wonders why they are all the same.
Clones, with deliberate deletion of the 1940’s peak.
And deliberately ignoring Stevenson screen data in Australia before 1920.. because it is so “inconvenient”
40
“GIStemp – dumber than a tomato”
“I’m adopting this “tag line” about tomatoes due to the simple fact that my tomato garden is a more accurate reporter of the temperature than is GIStemp. ”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/gistemp/
40
Poiter you continue to comment without knowing what you’re saying , explain the move and adjustments made at Rutherglen for just one example of adjustments made without site move .
Then look at how far back the adjustments went .
40
PF, the whole point is that CO2 does not have anything to do with ANY (temp) spike or otherwise. So what is your point arguing about the temperature record? You agree – dont agree? BOM is God? BOM is the Devil? What IS your take we are all confused.
80
This argument is so tired. C02 absorbs IR and readmits it, omnidirectionally.
If you had bothered to look at the link you would see that BOM, UAH, CISS etc are all in agreement, but not with the reconstruction at the heart of this post.
114
You know that you have absolutely ZERO evidence that CO2 causes any atmospheric warming.
Stop your childish trolling.
Of course BOM, GISS in agreement with each other. They have has several people who have been in both. The only evidence they yield is data tampering and urban heat effects.
UAH shows ONLY warming from El Ninos, as does RSS.
There is absolutely zero evidence of any warming by CO2 in any of the temperature data sets.
100
And why are you mentioning UAH when it only started in 1979, while the main point is the very warm period around 1900.
Intentional strawman argument… or just plain ignorance?
90
Fitz you should get out more, Rod Gill makes a good argument that CO2 does not cause global warming.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/19/radiative-heat-transfer-by-co2-or-whats-the-quality-of-your-radiation/
90
Funny how the “homogenisation” methodology, invented just at the start of the AGW scam , in nearly ALL cases deliberately gets rid of any past peaks in temperature.
Note how BOM et al have done this as well, where the raw data shows 1940’s around the same temperature as 2012.
All gone in every “adjusted™” record.
Its almost as if it was a pre-plan assault on the data.
“Gotta get rid of that blip” 😉
60
“This argument is so tired.”
Great title for your comment, PF.
Again showing your total lack of comprehension of atmospheric processes
… and your complete lack of any capability to learn.
Well done. 🙂
60
‘C02 absorbs IR and readmits it, omnidirectionally.’ So you finally admit there is NO backradiation , the whole thing is based on?
51
And CO2 levels have nothing to do with short term tiny human CO2 output. CO2 levels are set naturally by Henry’s law in a rapid equilibrium with the most soluble, easily compressible, highly polar gas in the air. No one, not the IPCC, not any scientist has proven otherwise and they all skim over this outrageous assumption.
It is all vague correlation presented as causation and totally busted when air temperatures stopped in 2003 while CO2 kept going up. The reality is that surface warming increases CO2, which is Henry’s law and nothing to do with human CO2 output, no matter how the IPCC avoids even talking about the elephant in the room, equilibrium.
90
… and according to Lord Monkton, the atmosphere is in equilibrium.
70
I am obviously missing something, here…. I am not a frequent visitor to the comments section of Jo’s excellent posts, so do not know the dynamics of many of the characters, but Peter Fitzroy does seem to be making a point that all should agree with – the data being collected is not as is being presented by the “scientific” organisations in reports that are affecting policies being effected by government that are detrimental to the economy of your country. Why are so many hauling PF over the coals for this?
10
.
[[CO2 absorbs and re-emits]]
We know that warming is NOT caused by greenhouse gasses, because these operate by increasing Downwelling Longwave Radiation (DLR). (It is DLR that causes surface warming – the re-emitting you mention.).
And yet DLR has never been shown to be increasing – therefore warming has not been caused by CO2.
QED.
Ralph
40
So Peter, given there is say 20% more CO2 and CO2 re-radiation is as you say omni directional the Nett radiation to space would increase with the additional radiating molecules, or would it decrease?
If the radiation to space increases with more radiating CO2 then the overall effect on the planet must be cooling wouldn’t you say. (Can’t have less nett energy and heat the earth)
50
“because these operate by increasing Downwelling Longwave Radiation “
You mean like this ? 😉
https://i.postimg.cc/Yqxm7Vky/ceres_dwlwir_decreasing.png
30
“The early data, before the introduction of the standardised Stephenson screens, was not reliable”
So what? Whatever the discrepancies they would have averaged out across the board.
You really should read more widely and get out more.
Others had have already put paid to your pub tests and straw men so a butcher’s sendoff is now appropriate!
80
Peter Fitzroy,
The Stevenson screen seems to have been introduced into Australia around 1880. Warwick Hughes had an old newspaper photo of one in Melbourne in 1879, but that had just been moved from another site (both in public gardens). Adelaide had at least 2 around 1880 because Clement Wragge did measurements (on temp. & pressure) at the old West Terrace site and on Mt. Lofty, and was published in The Proceedings of the Royal Society. Further there was a long running (>40 years) comparison between the Glaisher and Stevensons screens, which found that the Glaisher recorded a slightly higher maximum.
But we don’t know what or how temperatures were measured in the older days (except they would have been in the shade). Nor do we know why some stations are obviously a join of readings from other sites (e.g. Bathurst Gaol built 1887 but readings start around 1853 at some different site (or sites).
As for your link to the BoM I suggest you read it again. You say “Lastly it does not agree with GISS, UAH or any other dataset” but they say “These are also consistent with those of other leading international meteorological authorities, such as NOAA and NASA in the United States and the UK MetOffice. The high degree of similarity is demonstrated…”
50
It uses “PRE-ADJUSTED” data ie REAL data…
Data that hasn’t been through the BOM “trend homogenisation” anti-science.
100
I watched a P8, P3, C17 and C130J taxi within ten meters of the BOM weather station at Edinburgh (YPED) yesterday juzt like every other day. The BOM have no idea how contaminted the data is so trustworthy LOL incompetent YES
110
Edinburgh ? Where Crakar, in South Australia ?
60
Yep
60
Thanks Crakar !
I’ve passed that info on to Ken.
Edinburgh is not on his list yet on non compliant stations
40
Thank you Jo for highlighting the excellent work of Tony Heller.
He, but more importantly the data and historical media and record he presents, would appear to be required viewing for all. The doomsday cult has been with us for a very long time, so long in fact that their lingua franca is a tedious, repetitive and predictable as ever. There is truly nothing new under the sun in this regard.
Tony Heller confirms sanity and refutes the chanting kollectiv madness.
Business as usual, nothing to see here. Move on.
111
Due to his method of presentation
and massive dump if info,
He will persuade no one
Folks will see it as another attempt at
Pea under the thimble trickery
52
” the pub test”
Ah, so that is where you get all your ill-informed twaddle from.
Now I understand.
80
“” the pub test””
PF’s idea of polls and consensus.
90
… although probably more meaningful than a Lowy or ABC poll or survey !
PF’s kind of “science™”
90
PF, you appear to be an agent provocateur, a troll, bereft of honourable intent, desirous only of the usual chaos and murderous discombobulation that the Left has visited upon human history since 1848.
Go to hell. You’re not welcome here, only indulged by people far to generous and polite to point out the obvious to the intentionally blind.
90
Its hard to recruit good trolls, Fitz and leaf are on a mission doomed to fail because they don’t understand the big picture.
In your estimation, why was ENSO so quiet 10,000 years BP?
https://media.springernature.com/m685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fnature01194/MediaObjects/41586_2002_Article_BFnature01194_Fig1_HTML.jpg
60
Is that your killer argument? It says more about you and your intolerance than it does about me
All I’m doing is pointing out that if you discount the global warming theory, you must falsify all of its elements. For example, you have to demonstrate why CO2 is not a contributor, but H2O which has the same response to IR, is
19
The H2O signal overwhelms the CO2 by shear weight of numbers.
90
Intriguing, thanks
16
Peter, you’ve got it back to front. We don’t have to do or prove anything. You are the one who brings in pseudo-scientific assertions, statements, and claims. You’re continuously challenged by those with obviously better scientific knowledge than you possess.
I’ve read all the papers you push forward as your evidence and every one of this year’s batch are all about the numeric computer models as were those of earlier batches. Those numeric computer models don’t work. As Viscount Monkton puts it: they don’t take into account the fact that the sun shines. Nor do they take into account the Earth being a three-dimensional oblate spheroid. The models have to treat it as a Flat Earth, a disc-world. The Warmists have the audacity to claim that sceptics are Flat Earthers! Clouds? They can’t do clouds. An average mist is the best they can manage.
Since the early 1980s, they’ve been wrong. Continuously. Not a single projection in all the time since then has been right. Wrong for nearly 40 years — that’s a fantastically good record. The models don’t work. You’ve been told that many times yet still persist.
Tony Heller points out that Australia has not warmed. Professor Chris de Freitas of Auckland University pointed out four years ago (in a paper published in 2015) that New Zealand had not warmed since 1850. Only the models have warmed.
110
Sorry, all.models are wrong, is another tired argument. Mathematics, the language of models, is Used to describe gravity, as an example, so with your logic it is wrong
011
PF again shows his ignorance about models, as about everything else.
Doesn’t understand the concept of “validation”
. or realise that yes, all the “climate models” are WOEFULLY WRONG
PF knows NOTHING or rational thought or logic.
Both are beyond his capability.
80
Mo Ron.
Modeling is only used where one of the active components of a process is unable to be described in any way but Input related to Output.
Gravity is not modelled because its method of operation and its quantitative effects are known precisely.
When is a statement a non statement: when it’s made by a fool.
KK
60
Additionally and most importantly, models relating atmospheric CO2 to atmospheric temperature are an expensive joke because there is No Mechanism linking the two.
KK
40
All climate change models are wrong.
There, fixed it for you. Enough with the obfuscating.
50
No PF, you cannot even support the very foundation of the AGW scam with anything even resembling actual empirical science.
“you must falsify all of its elements”
Why should we have to falsify fairy-tales and baseless anti-science conjectures.
There is ZERO substance to the CO2 warming scam.
You know that, you just refuse to admit it to yourself.
“but H2O which has the same response to IR”
H2O does not have the same response to IR, its response is very different.
It is also a vastly larger percentage of the atmosphere than CO2 is.
Why do you continue to show that you don’t have the scientific knowledge to back up your ignorant yabbering !.
90
Rubbish, where is your evidence
09
Where is your empirical evidence to back up the very basis of the AGW scam, ie warming by atmospheric CO2.
YOU HAVE NONE. and you know it.!
Seems you don’t even know about the different states of H2O.. WOW !!
Latent heat, energy of condensation.. nope ????
Or the myriad bands of IR absorption on H2O
Such a display of wanton ignorance.
But its all you have.
50
AG: “you don’t have the scientific knowledge to back up your ignorant yabbering “
PF: where is your evidence
Read all your posts, PF, they are full of evidence of your scientific ignorance.
40
‘ … you must falsify all of its elements.’
The AGW hypothesis has been falsified, we have been here before and it appears to be a cyclic process.
https://imgur.com/b3D6nwK
60
also…. https://i.postimg.cc/QdXnDknT/CERESvUAH.png
Absolutely no evidence of any “trapped” energy as CO2 rises.
50
Nice El Nino spike, elG.
Horse and cart period 😉
Stronger spike than the 2015 one.. must have been from CO2.. or something else.
50
Got it from my new teacher (Javier) at Climate Etc.
If we can match the past to the present, then we can see the future.
40
“then we can see the future.”
Maybe.. ie I’m not convinced about that statement.
What we can see is there is nothing unusual about El Ninos.
There was certainly no human CO2 effect back then, and there is no evidence of one now.
40
Theoretically, we should be able to predict the behaviour of the oscillations and eliminate chaos from weather forecasting.
20
“All I’m doing is pointing out… blah, blah…. “
No, the only thing you have managed to point out is your scientific ignorance and brain-washed gullibility.
The rest of your comment is just a load of ill-conceived garbage text, unrelated to any know scientific procedure.
The brain-f**t myth of warming by atmospheric CO2 has NEVER been proven
… therefore THERE IS NOTHING TO FALSIFY !
Next you will be saying we have to falsify Grimm Bros fairy tales, and pixies at the bottom of the garden.
60
Because my friend water is a Condensing gas, when the water condenses it changes the air pressure opacity and critically the emissivity of the atmosphere. As that water evaporates it absorbs a LOT of energy and as it condenses it releases a LOT of latent energy. It is a completely different transport process to CO2 and much of its effects are driven by convection, and associated phase changes rather than radiation.
Water and CO2 are not alike at all.
60
Very illuminating.
30
This is most timely.
Just yesterday, The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that the alarmist narrative on climate change has gone off the rails and criticised the news media for provoking unjustified anxiety.
Read about it here
He goes on to suggest that radical environmentalists are now a major problem…”They are doomsters and extremists; they make threats. Much more radical action is demanded by Extinction Rebellion movement. They demand zero emissions by 2025 and “honest” climate information from governments”
Jo the worm is really turning now and the worst of the alarmists are squirming. Now is the time to sink the slipper!
180
[snip nah.]
30
Thats very interesting. I wonder if the WMO is getting a wee bit nervous that the climate hoax is getting exposed. Running for the hills, see we (WMO) never said any of that climate alarmist stuff…
80
have ignored this Trump gotcha that dominated FakeNewsMSM – including theirABC – all week, known as Sharpiegate:
6 Sept: Fox News: Jason Riley: ‘SharpieGate’ shows press will stress any ‘petty’ controversy to hurt Trump
by Charles Creitz
Nothing was gained from the dayslong back-and-forth between the president and the media over Trump’s claim that Hurricane Dorian could potentially affect Alabama, Riley said Friday on “Special Report.”
“We’ve learned nothing new here,” he said.
“We learned Trump won’t back down from a fight. We learned that there is no controversy that is too petty or stupid for the press to harp on that paints this president in a bad light.”…
Earlier on “Special Report,” anchor Bret Baier reported the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put out a statement on the matter backing up Trump’s claim…
“From Wednesday, Aug. 28, through Monday, Sept. 2, the information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to President Trump and the wider public demonstrated that tropical storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama,” the statement read.
Baier added NOAA said the Birmingham office of the National Weather Service put out a tweet contradicting the president that itself was not completely accurate.
The tweet — which said Alabama, “would NOT see any impacts from Dorian,” itself “spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time,” NOAA said…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/jason-riley-sharpiegate-shows-press-will-stress-any-petty-controversy-to-hurt-trump
despite NOAA’s backing up of the President was released as a Friday dump, FakeNewsMSM is still desperately trying to spin the story, with sometimes hilarious results:
7 Sept: Yahoo: Agency reverses course on Trump’s Alabama hurricane claim
by SETH BORENSTEIN and KEVIN FREKING, Associated Press; Associated Press writer Hope Yen contributed to this report.
A federal agency reversed course Friday on the question of whether President Donald Trump tweeted stale information about Hurricane Dorian potentially hitting Alabama, upsetting meteorologists around the country…
The latest defense came out Friday evening, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a statement from an unidentified spokesman stating that information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to the president had demonstrated that “tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama.” The advisories were dated from last Wednesday, Aug. 28, through Monday, the statement read…
Dan Sobien, president of the union representing weather service employees, tweeted Friday, “Let me assure you the hard working employees of the NWS had nothing to do with the utterly disgusting and disingenuous tweet sent out by NOAA management tonight.”
Other meteorologists also voiced concerns about NOAA’s actions Friday.
“I am very disappointed to see this statement come out from NOAA,” Oklahoma University meteorology professor Jason Furtado told The Associated Press…
Furtado said NOAA’s statement and the president’s Twitter “war on weather” are ***undermining confidence in meteorologists, adding, “The job just got harder because of this issue.”
MIT meteorology professor ***Kerry Emanuel said Trump’s “broadcast of false information is inexcusable.”…
https://news.yahoo.com/agency-reverses-course-trumps-alabama-230822568.html
6 Sept: WaPo: Capital Weather Gang: NOAA backs Trump on Alabama hurricane forecast, rebukes Weather Service for ***accurately contradicting him
by Jason Samenow, Andrew Freedman & Matthew Cappucci
In a statement released Friday afternoon, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated Alabama was in fact threatened by the storm at the time Trump tweeted Alabama would “most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated.”
Referencing archived hurricane advisories, the NOAA statement said that information provided to the president and the public between Aug. 28 and Sept. 2 “demonstrated that tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama.”
In an unusual move, the statement also admonished its National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Ala…
The NOAA statement Friday makes no reference to the fact that when Trump tweeted that Alabama was at risk, it was not in the National Hurricane Center’s “cone of uncertainty,” which is where forecasters determine the storm is most likely to track. Alabama also had not appeared in the cone in days earlier, and no Hurricane Center text product ever mentioned the state…
By releasing the statement admonishing the agency for an accurate forecast, ***NOAA may be seen as putting politics before facts. This could ***undermine forecasters’ ability to carry out their mission to the point where people may come to see its weather forecasts as political and untrustworthy…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/06/noaa-backs-president-trump-alabama-hurricane-forecast-rebukes-weather-service-office-that-accurately-contradicted-him/
01
CNN has a writing cast of zillions (lol) to tell us what a union guy says, then go back to all the false allegations of the week:
7 Sept: CNN: NOAA disavows National Weather Service tweet that refuted Trump’s claim Dorian was headed toward Alabama
by Kyle Feldscher; CNN’s Daniel Dale, Brandon Miller and Caroline Kelly contributed to this report.
Dan Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization, lambasted NOAA’s characterization of events and defended the agency’s employees…
It’s the latest development in a story that has consumed Washington…
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/06/politics/noaa-tweet-nws-trump-alabama/index.html
6 Sept: NPR: NOAA Contradicts Weather Service, Backs Trump On Hurricane Threat In Alabama
by Richard Gonzales
The parent agency of the National Weather Service said late Friday that President Trump was correct when he claimed earlier this week that Hurricane Dorian had threatened the state of Alabama…
The surprise statement on Friday has left meteorologists around the country baffled and upset…
“Some administrator, or someone at the top of NOAA, threw the National Weather Service under the bus,” Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, told NPR…
“I am very disappointed to see this statement come out from NOAA,” Oklahoma University meteorology professor Jason Furtado told The Associated Press. He said the controversy over the president’s tweets and the NOAA statement ***undermines public confidence in meteorologists…
Underlining the reaction by meteorologists to the escalating debate over the president’s claims is the ***fear that weather forecasting itself is becoming politicized.
“Hurricanes have never been a left or a right object,” said McNoldy. “And I hope they don’t become one.”
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/06/758532041/noaa-contradicts-weather-service-backs-trump-on-hurricane-threat-in-alabama
6 Sept: NOAA: Statement from NOAA
https://www.noaa.gov/news/statement-from-noaa
01
just two example to show how absurd the attacks on the President were:
TWEET: AL (Alabama) National Guard
#HurricaneDorian is projected to reach southern Alabama by the early part of the week. We are watching closely and #ready to act. Are you?
7:11 AM – 30 Aug 2019 from Millbrook, AL
https://twitter.com/AlabamaNG/status/1167439608638038018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
30 Aug: DothanEagleAlabama: Local officials monitoring Dorian as it approaches U.S.; calls to area hotels increase
by Jeremy Wise
Dothan-Houston County Emergency Management Agency Director Chris Judah said local officials initiated preparations on Thursday for the storm, a Category 3 hurricane as of early Friday afternoon.
While most tracks indicate Dorian will turn to the north and east before reaching the Gulf of Mexico, National Weather Service meteorologists have not ruled out that it will reach the Gulf of Mexico before the trajectory changes. If Dorian reaches the Gulf of Mexico before making the projected turn, it could affect the area much more significantly than the rain showers predicted for the Wiregrass in a few days…
For emergency personnel, initial preparations included coordinating response resources with the state EMA office, Gov. Kay Ivey’s office, the American Red Cross and other first-responder groups. Judah encouraged Wiregrass residents to analyze their emergency plans and stock up on needed materials like canned goods, water and batteries in case Dorian approaches…
https://www.dothaneagle.com/news/local/local-officials-monitoring-dorian-as-it-approaches-u-s-calls/article_bccddb78-cb38-11e9-946a-8bb97c043d03.html
10
The Donald is very well advised1
40
“Everyone says that Trump uses Twitter like a laser pointer, herding the media and his hysterical opponents like cats. This week Trump proved you don’t need electrons—all you need is a Sharpie, and a sharp sense of humor. (Next to the dullards of the media, it’s not hard to seem sharp.)”
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/09/the-week-in-pictures-sharpie-edition.php
Humour: the best medicine – especially after scrolling through Pffftzroy’s endless screed of DINGBATITIS.
10
Alas very amateurish. How many stations in 1890 and where were they. Stevenson screens or what? Compared to many many stations 1957 onwards.
Needs a proper spatial analysis and some error bars. Report back !
15
Tony had another article which goes into the details of the 25 stations with continuous records since 1876
50
AlHones1816’s comment sums it up https://realclimatescience.com/2019/09/australia-shows-no-warming-since-1876/
11
No, AlJones says nothing that is relevant to the post.
Goes on about Bathurst, even though it is still cooler now than it was around 1900
TH has shown the data as it is.. GET OVER IT !!
60
‘Report back!’
Very amusing. As you can appreciate its a very large island, so we should be looking for longevity in a pristine environment. Queensland is a good place to start.
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2019/08/lady-elliot-just-a-hot-flush/
70
The The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization is no amateur and his position aligns with that of Tony and the majority of sceptics.
“The IPCC reports have been read in a similar way to the Bible”
You like many should be careful with ad homs as they can come back to bite!
70
Ooops…that article is already linked in the header below the video. The video is not from the link below it
30
This should have been a reply to thread 15…stupid interweb thingy
30
Love it! Good way of showing how the real climate is making fun of the alarmists. Everyone needs to see this, and I mean everyone.
40
6 Sept: UK Express: UK weather forecast: Temperatures to plummet as ‘excessive’ storms mean winter comes early
Britons have been warned to get the winter coats ready with the first major freeze of the season threatening to put the nation on ice within weeks.
by Nathan Rao
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said: “The current weather conditions are going to be replaced by something much cooler and more unsettled bringing a pattern which is likely to persist through much of October…
Wintery conditions could grip the nation well before the official start of the season meaning a bitterly cold winter is on the cards, he warned…
The change in weather has prompted bookies to slash the odds on winter entering the record books as the coldest ever.
Coral is offering 2-1 on an unprecedented seasonal freeze as punters start to hedge their bets on festive snow…
Temperatures will fall through the weekend with parts of northern Britain braced for frosts as weather models show the slight chance of Scottish mountain snow…
Britain’s unsettled weather theme is likely to continue past the end of September with October shaping up to be colder than usual, according to the Met Office…
“Temperatures will most likely remain near to below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.”
The Met Office said snow over high ground of Scotland this weekend was ‘not out of the question’.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1174864/uk-weather-forecast-met-office-bbc-weather-long-range-weather-temperature-map
7 Sept: ManitobaCooperator: Cool summer, cool fall?
by Daniel Betze
(Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park)
What kind of weather did August bring us this year? Starting in the east, agricultural regions of Manitoba saw temperatures that came in near to just slightly below average across eastern regions, falling to just a little below average as you move into western regions. The Winnipeg area saw a mean monthly temperature of around 18.5 C, about 0.3 C below average. Over western regions of Manitoba, both the Brandon and Dauphin regions reported a mean monthly temperature of about 17 C, which was about 0.8 C below average…
Moving into Saskatchewan, Saskatoon was the Prairies’ cold spot, at least compared to average. Saskatoon reported a mean monthly temperature of around 15.7 C, nearly 2 C below the long-term average. Farther south in Regina, it was a little warmer, but still colder than average. Regina reported a mean monthly temperature of 16.8 C, about 1.2 C below average…
Edmonton reported a mean monthly August temperature of 14.3 C, which was about 1 C below average. Finally, the Peace region ended up being the cold spot. This region reported a mean monthly temperature of 13.3 C, which was about 1.5 C below average…
To summarize the month, for most regions, August saw below-average temperatures, and western and central regions saw above-average precipitation while eastern regions and Calgary received below-average amounts. Looking back at what the different weather models predicted it looks like the winner was a tie between NOAA, my forecast, and the almanacs…
Let’s begin our look at the fall forecasts with the almanacs. The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for below-average temperatures and precipitation. The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac, which is always more vague, appears to call for colder-than-average temperatures along with near- to above-average amounts of precipitation. Next on the list is Environment Canada’s CanSIPS weather model. This model calls for well-above-average temperature in both September and October along with near- to below-average amounts of precipitation. The CFS weather model calls for slightly above-average temperatures in both September and October, with Alberta seeing the best chance of above-average temperatures…
I’ll have to admit my gut has been off as of late and there are no strong indicators pointing toward any particular pattern. So, I am going to go with the status quo, which means near- to below-average temperatures along with near-average amounts of precipitation. Now as usual, we’ll have to sit back and see just what Mother Nature will dish up for us this season.
https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/weather/cool-summer-cool-fall/
20
6 Sept: Phys.org: New climate model for the IPCC
by Alfred Wegener Institute
Researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute now, for the first time, feed the results from their global models directly into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change database. The data is particularly interesting because the underlying model, developed at the AWI, depicts the sea ice and the oceans with far greater definition than conventional methods. The results are used by climate scientists and stakeholders around the globe to determine the effects of climate change on humans and the environment…
There’s a particular reason why the AWI has now become involved: the experts have employed a new and, to date, little-used method to model the climate—a so-called “unstructured grid”, which in terms of climate research amounts to a mini revolution. Until now, almost all the research groups around the globe have worked with what are known as “structured grids”…
The results from the circa 50 climate models, which the AWI and the other CMIP partners are currently feeding into the international database, will be used by numerous other researchers during the next two years…
The AWI climate model includes the main natural drivers of the Earth’s temperature, such as solar radiation, natural greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations as well as volcanic aerosols…READ ON
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-climate-ipcc.html
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6 Sept: Bellona.org Norway: Russia to sign Paris Accord as ministry forecasts climate change calamities
Russia’s environmental ministry has warned that the country is heating twice as fast as the rest of the world just days before Moscow is expected to sign the Paris Climate Accord.
by Charles Digges
Last July, President Vladimir Putin – who has in the past expressed doubt that climate change is man made –acknowledged that Russia was experiencing its effects and that Arctic temperatures were rising faster than anywhere else on the planet.
But he warned against the perils of “absolutist” renewable energy and said Russia’s rising temperatures should not lead to “the complete abandonment of nuclear or hydrocarbon energy.”…
In July, deputy prime minister Alexei Gordeev ordered the ministries of environment and foreign affairs to submit a bill to ratify the accord to parliament by this month, according to a government statement (LINK RUSSIAN).
The statement said it was “now necessary […] to launch the process of ratification before the World Climate Action Summit [on 23] September 2019”…
The move followed months of back-and-forth consultations between the economic development ministry, which penned the law, and the ministries of resources and environment and foreign affairs…
The government statement said ratification of the Paris Agreement “could give Russia additional opportunities to participate in all negotiation processes and protect its interests in international fora that define the rules for reducing CO2 emissions and develop relevant documents.”…
https://bellona.org/news/climate-change/2019-09-russia-to-sign-paris-accord-as-ministry-forecasts-climate-change-calamities
26 Aug: Moscow Times: Russia Announces Plans for Coal-Digging Surge
Despite the climate crisis and environmental concerns, the country says it aims for a big dig of the carbon-rich rock. Much of it will be extracted in new Arctic fields
by The Barents Observer
“I would like to congratulate everyone whose life is connected with coal mining, with this key industry in our country’s economy,” President Vladimir Putin said this week while greeting the governors of Russia’s main coal-extracting regions.
The meeting took place in the Kremlin on the eve of Miner’s Day, the annual celebration devoted to workers in the coal mining industry…
Coal mining has been a key industry in Russia for a long time. And its role will be no less significant in the future, the participants of the meeting said…
Over the last 10 years, Russia has boosted its annual coal production by more than 30% to a total of 440 million tons, and the country is now the world’s third-largest producer, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said.
In the same period, investments in the industry have surged 150%. “This is, of course, a significant figure,” Novak said.
The production is to continue upwards. According to a draft development program, annual coal production might reach as much as 670 million tons in the course of the next 15 years…
A series of new coal projects stand behind the growth figures. Almost half of Russia’s current 58 coal mines in operation have opened in the course of the last 20 years. And several more are in the making, including in the Arctic…
The black rocks will ultimately play a crucial role in the ambitious development of the Northern Sea Route. President Putin has requested in his state six-year plan that shipping on the Arctic route is to reach 80 million tons per year by 2024…
Russia sees the Asian market as the destination for its growing coal production.
“Our coal companies are now actively conquering the Asia-Pacific region [and] we see the potential for coal consumer growth exactly in this direction,” Energy Minister Novak told President Putin…
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/08/26/russia-announces-plans-for-coal-digging-surge-a67011
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The above temperature record looks very much like 3/4 of a sine wave. Extrapolate suspected sine wave to complete the cycle, and it looks very much like a Sues De Vreis 200 year cycle.
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Hello Peter Fitzroy, you seem to place great store in computer models, mentioning how models support the theory of gravity.
If a person has a theory that every time a house with a red roof is built, the temperature increases .00001deg, then programmed a computer to calculate the
increase in temperature, allowing for fading, demolitions and roof restoration, the computer would work it out…. The computer would not respond by saying “Hang on a tick, how does a house with a red roof impact temperature.” If co2 does have an impact on temperature, at increases of 50ppm, why does it have no impact in a horticultural glasshouse, when the increase is 1000ppm to 1200ppm. This is commonly used to improve plant growth, as 1200 to 1400ppm is the optimum level of co2 for most plant growth.
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The Federation Drought (1896-1904) was a brutal event in Australia’s recent history. The Bureau of Meteorology have for the last decade done everything in their power to hide the correct temperatures and the consequences of that period in time.
The BOM have done this by 1/limiting their easily viewable temperature time series for most Australian weather stations to 100 years (usually 1910) to neatly avoid the Federation Drought temperatures, and
2/ adjusting historical temperatures since ca 1910 downward (“homogenistaion”)to increase the false perception of Global Warming in the record. As is usual in the cases of adjusted data, the adjustment is larger than the effect claimed to exist.
This is a loud bell ringing for an immediate inquiry into the BOM, as all of Australia’s policy on renewables is based on this fabricated data.
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We need to question why the devastating El Nino of 1876 didn’t show up?
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Sort of spooky – Peter Ridd sends out an email suggesting that the atmosphere in the university is “Orwellian”. Next thing, Big Brother cans him.
OK, it proves Peter Ridd was right, but surely there are nicer means of affirmation?
Cheers,
Mike
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I have been out of the loop for a few years. So forgive my out-of-dateness. But there is a few questions that I would ask about this graph. I know this is average maximum temperature and not average temperature. But its still a bit curious to me. Why the high temperatures early century whereas in the American experience it was the 1930’s? Is there any hypothesis? Something to do with the ocean conveyor? I wouldn’t really think so. Temperature maximums are more to do dry air blowing across the desert or down from the equator. Whereas I would suppose ocean conveyor action is more to do with high temperature averages. The other thing is these 2016 (or thereabouts) highs. Now come on. Thats the B.O.M bias surely. Is that part of the graph dirty? If Jennifer gets up in the morning early a few times and catches the BOM out at least two times …… Well that part of the graph has to be considered dirty.
Am I wrong here?
By the way I am willing to concede a minor CO2-warming effect where the air is dry. And where we have heat maximums thats USUALLY when the air is dry. I’m not in any denialist mode here. But surely we have to assume that the far side of the graph is 1. Influenced by the heat island effect and 2. That the BOM data at that point should be considered dirty until proven otherwise.
Just in case any ideologues are around …… Yes where the air is dry it might be that there is a tad CO2-warming. We want to have clean data in order to know one way or another.
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Temperature maximums to do with dry air blowing across the desert. So its got not much to do with average temperatures because its when there is water vapour that you will have higher average temperatures.
I must object to these 2016 (or thereabouts) highs. Now come on. Thats the B.O.M bias surely. Is that part of the graph dirty? If Jennifer gets up in the morning early a few times and catches the BOM out at least two times …… Well that part of the graph has to be considered dirty.
By the way I am willing to concede a minor CO2-warming effect where the air is dry. And where we have heat maximums thats USUALLY when the air is dry. But surely we have to assume that the far side of the graph is 1. Influenced by the heat island effect and 2. That the BOM data at that point should be considered dirty until proven otherwise.
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What is interesting is the increase in major city stations due to the heat island effect. Tar, cement, black solar panels and air conditioning exhaust all contributing.
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Solar Panels are a form of Chinese coal export. The Chinese burn coal to reduce SIO to polysilicon. Somehow I think the western elite would rather rule the world through China and thus they have managed a decline of the west.
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