If the planet was at stake you’d think the BOM would be doing this research, not unpaid volunteers.
Bill Johnston has shown again, that the BOM is apparently unaware and, perhaps most damningly, not even interested in most of the things that happened to their official thermometer sites.
Port Hedland is supposedly “one of the best” researched sites in Australia — so it is a certified ACORN site (one of the 112). The trends matter, and being remote, it influences a large area. But one man with dedication and no funding at all can find key historical maps and photos that the BOM, with its million dollar-a-day budget, cannot. Instead of doing this hard work the BOM uses the magical homogenization process “to fix” up all the anomalies by hunting for data in sites hundreds of kilometers away that can be used to adjust the records at Port Hedland. This is the secret process that even the BOM admits it cannot describe in full to anyone outside the BOM. As Johnston says, it’s a process so bad it “should be abandoned”. There is no saving the error correction that starts with bad data, missing documents, and barely any historical research and then pretends it can mash more bad data to produce “truth”.
One of the biggest flaws in the homogenisation process is that changes to stations swept across the country around the same time at many stations. In the wake of parallel changes, is a trail of sudden very artificial step changes in records at far distant stations. During World War II, the RAAF controlled many of the sites and after the war ended, some sites went to the Dept of Civil Aviation, others to the Met Bureau. As managers changed, so did practices and positions. Then in the 1950s passenger jet travel “took off” and runways grew larger and longer. The thermometers were often shifted around during these expansions. Meanwhile in post offices automatic telephone exchanges were being added, and in 1972 Fahrenheit thermometers become Celsius ones. In the 1970s microwave towers were added. In the mid 1990s electronic sensors arrived to replace the older mercury or alcohol bulbs, and screens shrank from 240 Litres down to just 60 Litres.
Homogenisation makes it possible to take these artificial jumps and spread the errors and biases to stations without the same changes. The process is so use-less it is damaging the data. Rather than detecting climate change, the process invents it, making it appear that changes to sites were really a change in the climate.
The Bureau needs to go back to the start, to scratch, and the raw records, and do the proper documentary search for each site they use. Either that or Australia needs to go back to the start and axe a dysfunctional organisation get a proper Bureau — one that is interested in Australia’s climate.
In the meantime it’s left to volunteers.
The curious case of Port Hedland
Guest post by Bill Johnston
….
Port Hedland is a hot dry place in the far North West of Western Australia. The average rain is about 11 inches annually (286mm). Evaporation though, is a ferocious 3.2 meters a year. The Port Hedland post office started recording temperatures in 1912, was hit by a major cyclone and inundated in 1939. From 1948 the records come from the airport. In 1939 the towns racetrack was converted into a landing ground and an Aeradio base was set up. Aeradio was a tracking station to watch and connect with flights going from Perth to Broome and warn the pilots about approaching weather. But the RAAF were not happy with the tidal swamps around it, and they set up a few runways 12km east of there by 1943. It had a workshop and buildings and even a machine-gun post. Such were the times! The official screen probably moved there in 1944.
The official metadata record for the site only says that the airport site opened in 1948 and that there was no useful overlap between it and the postoffice — which is not surprising given how many changes there were in the 9 years before that.
The metadata mentions ” that the “site moved within the airport grounds (585 m north-northeast) on 27 March 1981”. Johnston wonders which site moved and what happened to the Aeradio and RAAF data before 1948.
….
In this figure Johnston lined up all the sites that were used to homogenize the Port Hedland record in the period around 1968 – 1975. It’s easy to see that these were also often affected by artificial step ups in 1972 or 73.
…
______________________________________________________________________________
Dr. Bill Johnston.
Former weather observer and research scientist, New South Wales Department of Natural Resources
Summary
Limiting warming that hasn’t happened to 1.5oC relative to pre-industrial times by some time in the future is based on the faulty notion that homogenised temperature data reflect the climate alone.
Introduction
Across the world and particularly in Australia no weather station sites have stayed the same. Therefore its important that effects caused by site and instrument changes are not attributed to the climate.
Discussion
Historic temperature data collected to monitor the weather were from thermometers of unknown quality exposed in the shade, hung on the wall of south-facing verandas, in Glaisher stands which were manually turned away from the sun, in ‘thermometer houses’ of varying design, inside iron-roofed Stevenson screens and in some cases inside buildings.
For most historic datasets like Sydney Observatory, Cape Leeuwin, Cape Otway; and post offices like Port Hedland, Bourke, Darwin, Barcaldine and Mildura, details of site changes and the conditions under which observations were made are scant or unavailable. For many it’s not known when Stevenson screens were installed or the state of the instruments or if the vicinity was watered. Homogenisation aims to adjust for non-climate effects, however as explained in this note, methods used by the Bureau are unscientific, biased and should be abandoned.
There is no evidence in their reports that independent peer-reviewers[1] investigated datasets or looked for problems in homogenisation methods, or in the way data are observed or the usefulness of historic data for tracking trends or changes in the climate.
The three obvious sources of bias ignored by peer reviewers are:
- Non-existent or faulty metadata (data about data) is used as primary evidence of site changes and as noted by Della-Marta et al. (2004)[2] (p. 85) “The decision of whether or not to correct for a potential inhomogeneity is often .. subjective”. Subjective assignment of changepoints allows the process to be guided by pre-determined outcomes.
- Comparative methods whereby target site data are adjusted relative to data for up to 10 correlated comparators (whose data may not be homogeneous) lacks rigour and is also biased. As correlated comparators likely embed similar faults the adjustment process coerces site-related step-changes into a trend.
- Residual trends that result from arbitrarily identified changepoints and dodgy adjustments are passed-off as being due to the climate by default.
Of particular concern is that by ignoring network-wide changes that happened in the 1950s, 1970s and more recently, homogenised datasets embed trends and changes that have nothing to do with the climate.
The problem of correlated comparators
Use of correlated comparators to make adjustments is the most obvious source of bias especially when their data are likely to be tainted by parallel site change effects.
Network wide changes in the 1950s include the post-WWII reorganisation of Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) Meteorological Section in June 1946 when Aeradio staff moved to the Department of Civil Aviation, and meteorological (met) staff to the Weather Bureau within the Department of the Interior. This required construction of Flight Services offices and control towers and refurbishment of former Aeradio facilities as met and radio-aids offices.
Driven by the need for improved upper-air forecasts for aviation, the second change included deployment of radiosonde balloons to monitor temperature and wind profiles, METOX radar to track the balloons and wind-finding (WF) radar to provide reliable coverage along major air routes. New met-offices usually distant from the previous Aeradio office supported such developments and met-enclosures were up-graded and moved as other facilities such as airport terminals were upgraded and runways strengthened and lengthened to handle jet aircraft.
Also, at about the same time, automatic telephone exchanges were built in post office yards and by the late 1970s, towers for microwave communications. On 1 September 1972 metrication resulted in thermometers across the network being replaced and units of rainfall changed from points to millimetres from the 1 January 1974. Next was the widespread introduction of automatic weather stations (AWS) and they becoming primary instruments from 1 September 1996.
As most network-wide changes are time-coordinated, correlated comparators likely reinforce rather than correct faults in homogenised data.
Changing to 60-litre screens
Replacing 230-litre Stevenson screens with 60-litre ones accelerated from about 1995 and is the single most important cause of network-wide warming and recent record temperatures.
Small screens are not buffered to the same extent by the enclosed air-volume as standard screens and transient eddies from pavements, passing vehicles and aircraft movements cause spikes on warm days, which the Bureau routinely reports as being due to the climate.
Practices that reduce natural cooling via the water cycle such as ploughing, spraying-out the grass and gravel mulching in the vicinity of sites also cause increased warming. Small screens beside dusty tracks at airports, roadsides and in paddocks, which accumulate dust and grime between infrequent service visits are also biased-high while changes such as new buildings, roads and other developments results in frequent over-ranging. In addition, satellite images confirm wind-profiler arrays installed close to screens at Canberra, Adelaide, Coffs Harbour, Tennant Creek and other airports cause up-steps in data that don’t reflect the climate.
As governments depend on the Bureau’s fake-news as much as the Bureau depends on the government’s largess, there is little wonder that those in charge of Australia’s climate are not interested in holding the Bureau to account.
Conclusions
- Site change impacts (most recently the introduction of AWS and 60-litre Stevenson screens) dominate trends and changes in Australian temperature records and no datasets show warming that unequivocally due to the climate.
- Action on climate change and the Paris agreement with all its buzzwords – limiting warming that hasn’t happened to 1.5oC by some time in the future is the greatest scam ever perpetrated in the name of science.
Good science starts with good data. Without quality, reliable data, you’ve got squat. I’d add reproducible to this list, but we’re talking about our chaotic weather system. No amount of modification, adjustment, balancing, etc., will make up for bad data.
Next time someone wants to take over your economy on the basis of bad data and worse non-validated computer modeling, maybe you should start asking questions.
280
This is typical of embedded public servants that believe they know it all and think they have the authority to tell everyone how it is.
In fact the BoM appears to be full of watermelons that follow the UN Church of Climatology doctrine to the exclusion of all else – not a way to run a public department.
I can’t help wondering why the people of Australia put up with such blatant cooking of the data.
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“I can’t help wondering why the people of Australia put up with such blatant cooking of the data.”
Because like most Westernized parts of the world there’s perceived to be no profit in it, so up it they put. If only there was a national system of reporting basic siting and data errors, say 2 beer coupons per site error, and 1 beer coupon per 1°C of data error. Suddenly there would be a great competition to do things like Bill Johnston does and get the records straight.
The system could also extended to all other Government run enterprises, so encouraging government to become more free-market orientated and accountable.
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The “embedded public servants” consider actual truth as irrelevant because THEY determine what is true. Anyone who objects is simply considered wrong no matter what evidence there is to the contrary. The only cure is to abolish their positions of power and the totality of their agency.
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As long as we keep exposing thier nonsense, they have nowhere to hide…..
The problem is the public are generally below average academically and may also have no interest as long as they have thier smart phones they figure they are super clever coz gurgle knows everything…
100
It seems obvious to me. The goal is to get a warming trend. The method is irrelevant.
So what the BOM is doing is clearly not science. And it seems they don’t really care …full circle back… because the goal is to get a warming trend.
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Yes! Success depends upon your goal. Far too often, success for government is failure for We the People.
We the people usually are concerned for the quality of our lives, the lives of our children, and the lives of our grand children. The government is usually only concerned about accumulation of power and winning the next election so they can decide who is going to be the object of human sacrifice.
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It is interesting to note that the “homogenisation” routine arrived just at the start of the whole AGW shebang. It is now used in many places in different guises, and seems to produce greater warming trends in most sites that it touches.
If you at the lack of quality in the sites used, and the large urban effects that would be present, then it would seem that all they are doing is smearing bad data over very large areas.
NOT science.. in fact, just the opposite.
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As soon as one realises that homogenisation is as homogenisation does, one begins to understand what the UN eco-neo-Marxist crony capitalist destination resembles.
A homogenised, borderless, culturally bereft, NPC global grey sameness where one would be left in no uncertainty that non-conformists would face division, exclusion and inequality the likes of which the Children of the Corn and Damien’s of this World have no inkling.
Even their modelling and empirical data handling computer programmes betray them.
80
” The goal is to get a warming trend. ”
Success beyond their wildest dreams (/s)
“Alarmism Exposed: The entire world is warming faster than the entire planet”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/07/alarmism-exposed-the-entire-world-is-warming-faster-than-the-entire-planet/
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Lol, the avatar randomly assigned to my comment is amazingly accurate!
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You don’t sound that grumpy 😉
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I’ve always been amused by mine mpcraig 🙂
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Mine is a cheeky grin with raised eyebrows… hmmm 😉
40
We three obviously have a common ancestor way back in the digital avatar gene pool – great uncle isosceles?
Thankfully I didn’t inherit spectacles, Annie (love that skyward glance of yours – hmmph!) yet I done did get them crossed-eyes and monobrow – hey, keeps the sun off me. And like mpcraig, I’m purple, not that sickly ickly yucky tinge of… green!
30
“Replacing 230-litre Stevenson screens with 60-litre ones…”
Well they probably had to make room for air-con units, incinerators, retaining walls, kerbing, paving, new asphalt, BBQs and extra parking, didn’t they? It all goes away when you homogenize in any case. (I dunno, these so-called skeptics have no notion of science and methodology and stuff. No wonder they never publish.)
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To think that man-made global warming was achieved by a reduction in the size of Stevenson screens!
220
Yes it goes to show that these near ground sites are meaningless. The temperature was the temperature at that epoch. In fact without a screen it would just read what the air temperature was depending on that environment. It is/was NOT a reliable indicator of the whole atmosphere at that time.
the whole ground based reading should be abolished as useless. (of course the climate whackos in the BoM want to use them for ‘proof’) Balloons are far better as they measure the whole profile. The article does mention balloon data.
In other words the local temperature is just due to local thermodynamic processes.
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Now that is worth a triple crown green thumb Momo !
50
We have electronic measurement and recording.
That should require two staff members to supervise.
KK
130
And a third to supervise the two, and a fourth to lean on the shovel.
120
Yes, I overlooked that.
60
And at least 2 back at main office.
It all adds up..
No wonder BOM can’t afford to maintain its sites properly. 😉
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But who make the tea & coffee?
50
“But who makes the tea & coffee?”
I’d do that for wage of $100,000 a year !
60
Scratch that.. I don’t particularly want to be making soy decaf lattes all day !!
120
Maybe for $200,000?
60
And a manager to supervise the lot of ’em.
10
Dr. Paul Rossiter’s article at WUWT really shows that all of the lip-flapping, teeth-clacking billions of words written and argued about the climate, actually has nothing to do with the climate at all. It is all just a massive, yuge, in fact, distraction to keep the seething masses’ attention off what’s really going on – the biggest theft off the citizenry the planet has ever seen.
The money that disappears before your eyes like the magician’s sleight of hand while your attention is diverted elsewhere (ocean acidivication, starving polar bears, droughts, floods, forest fires, Zulu warriors’ late marriage due to late circumcision (I kid you not), and any other of the about 1,000 documented attention-diversions.
If God, Jesus, Confuscious, Buddha and the great computer of “42” fame all teamed up and put out a joint statement that this CAGW thing was a scam, they’d be accused of being in the pay of “Big Oil”, sneered at, mocked and belittled and another diversion would be selected from the list, or another invented to distract the masses while the plundering of whole economies continued unabated.
280
I’m with FijiDave.
This is good science and must be maintained, but, the doomsday global warming scare is not about the science.
With UN Greta and her Extinction Rebellion, the socialism masquerading as green environmentalism has revealed its colours, once again.
Green on the outside, red on the inside and the all misery it brings …
___
They demonised plant food, a natural organic.
They labelled it sinful, judged it satanic,
New religion took flight, on virtue-less wings
We became peasants, while they lived like kings
They hid behind Greta, to skirt our attacks
Then they slapped carbon (sic) with a shiny new tax. – anon (social media)
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The other giveaway about this Business, and it is a business, is that the Eco Warriors are defending “The Environment” against a mythical CO2 meme that has no substance.
In the meantime these Ecologists give no care, concern or interest in Real Pollution and that gives the game away.
They are a dead set political/economic force aiming to enslave us.
They’ve succeeded.
KK
120
Indeed, Here are Extinction Rebellions (USA) “Demands”, IE impositions
want foisted on the
While they sprinkle ECO everywhere number 3 & 4 Make it’s clear that this is about communism and putting their friends in charge of the world with Citizen’s Assemblies (the USSR called these Soviets), and some sort of Quasi Eco directed social Justice Nonsense (We want our mates in charge). It seems ironic that ERs brand of communism is all about People of Colour and free stuff for the downtrodden (Of course, this seems to be the totalitarian justification du-jour – See 4) but in the same breath in 2 they want policies that deny those same People of Colour, Indigenous and downtrodden access to cheap clean energy which is the basis of the west’s expanded lifespans. Notably they seem to want inanimate objects to have RIGHTS? kinda unhinged dont’cha think.
1 and 2 are just attempts at FUD to justify 3 and 4. Mind you I’d rather like the government to do 1 and tell the truth about so-called climate change (That there is NO EMERGENCY) in order to start deprogramming our scared youth. I think number 2 is weird too, since the global economy emits no more that 3% of CO2, the biosphere sucks up 50% (1.5%) and there is say 1000 years of coal resource the global economies energy resource footprint is less than 0.0015% of earths resources. Clearly, actually thinking is not Extinction Rebellion’s strong suit since the actual facts work against their cause if you consider 1 and 2. The greening due to CO2 and photosynthesis increase already puts the tropics (Australia, NZ, Africa S. America and Much of SE asia) well past Nett Zero relative to Kyoto standard (1990).
I also really-really (yes really) love the bit about removal of excess atmospheric gasses in 2, maybe the activists should be in the room when they do that.
Jo, you really need to write about this misguided claptrap! Anyway here it is, the ER Communist Manifesto in all its glory.
==========================================================================
1. That the Government must tell the truth about the climate and wider ecological emergency, it must reverse all policies not in alignment with that position and must work alongside the media to communicate the urgency for change including what individuals, communities and businesses need to do.
2
The Government must enact legally-binding policies to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2025 and take further action to remove the excess of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It must cooperate internationally so that the global economy runs on no more than half a planet’s worth of resources per year.
3
We do not trust our Government to make the bold, swift and long-term changes necessary to achieve these changes and we do not intend to hand further power to our politicians. Instead we demand a Citizens’ Assembly to oversee the changes, as we rise from the wreckage, creating a democracy fit for purpose.
4
We demand a just transition that prioritizes the most vulnerable people and indigenous sovereignty; establishes reparations and remediation led by and for Black people, Indigenous people, people of color and poor communities for years of environmental injustice, establishes legal rights for ecosystems to thrive and regenerate in perpetuity, and repairs the effects of ongoing ecocide to prevent extinction of human and all species, in order to maintain a livable, just planet for all.
30
Im still waiting… for my billion dollar check from ‘Big Oil’ for criticizing ‘climate change’ on this site..
Thanks Big Oil…:D
60
Follow the money, axiomatic, effective and revealing.
Slightly off topic, my apologies, but some good news follows, possibly because AG Barr et al. are trawling globalist World for the damned international conspiracy to sabotage the will of the American people. With UK, Italy, Canada and Australia being implicated, one cannot imagine that New Zealand, globalist sycophant extraordinaire, has somehow not been deeply implicated. The globalist Left deep state in NZ has the country by the gizzard and the s&c. The sheeple remain grazing, oblivious and contented in an excruciating political mediocrity. A few awaken.
80
Key caught channeling millions of dollars [to] Clinton Foundation
http://alcp.org.nz/node/278
I’ve never linked to NZ’s ‘Legalise’ Party before – not that I can remember – yet searching for an article with that infamous (shudder!) picture of Clinton and Shonky smooching each other in Rarotonga a few years back, turned up the above link, with a close-up image of the two
shady international criminalshighly respected gubmint types ‘air-kissing’ each other after doing it. By ‘it’ I mean shafting the little people for the benefit of the filthy few, ie. Clinton and Key and their fellow travellers.2017: “National Business Review has reported that John Key will continue giving millions of dollars of taxpayer’s [sic] money to the foundation in the future, despite the criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton”.
So L.D., you’re saying the NZTU are claiming Cinders, Winnie and Green-Shaw have scrapped the scam? (link won’t open for me). Wow, something constructive, for a change.
20
The most succinct statement yet of the problems, or is it a feature, of the homogenisation routine.
150
As was suggested by Allan Jones we need a Royal Commission in the climate change science (oxymoron) and renewables (scam). Of course it won’t happen since there are huge amounts of money and power behind the scam, and the government is gutless to fight that war.
180
Peter its not the money holding Morrison back, more to do with the integrity of BoM being smashed. Think about the ramifications when its discovered that BoM has been cooling the past to warm the present, the institution would never regain respect.
We need Craig Kelly to bring the ginger group onboard, make the presentation palatable, then sell the idea of an audit through Sky. Difficult because of the underlying conspiracy theory, which makes us look paranoid.
140
Eg we need to remove “conspiracy theory” from our argument that’s the left line , it’s Frord nothing more nothing less with a touch of incompetence and a dash of covering ones backside to hide the stuff ups .
80
Three-quarters of the Australian population think climate change is a real worry and the skeptics want an audit of BoM because they are manipulating data. We need a catalyst (like serious weather disruption in midlatitudes) to prove its not a conspiracy by the Murdocracy.
90
‘Think about the ramifications when its discovered that BoM has been cooling the past to warm the present, the institution would never regain respect.’
Can you imagine a BoM/Climate royal commission similar to the Banking one? Slap over the wrist with a wet bus ticket.
Criminal charges against the BOM? Who goes to jail? who gets fined? noone. ]
100
First things first, we need an audit which will lead to a Royal Commission.
The extremes in midlatitude weather, heat waves and cold air outbreaks, will have a sobering impact on BoM. Seasonal temperatures should remain average, nothing to see here move right along. So its up to us to prove climate is changing and why.
Don’t concern yourself over judicial matters and what our QC might say at a Royal Commission. ‘Your honour the building of desalination plants around the country received no due diligence …’
60
Yes but who will do the audit? The B O M? Find a non partisan auditor..volunteers?
50
And..I wouldnt trust the CSIRO either, CSIRO Climate Science Centre. 100 staff, A$20 million
Source https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/06/understanding-the-climate-movement-part-3-follow-the-money/
(Another Ian #3.3)
Also from same..
The number of NGOs from the main countries participating in CAN are:
USA 193
Canada 103
Australia 69
India 46
UK 30
Denmark 25
France 23
New Zealand 16
(rest <10 per country)
60
How about three of ours and three of theirs as the main thrust.
I nominate Jennifer Marohasy, John Abbott and Slingy.
50
Alan Jones is wrong here, RC’s only work when the judiciary can act independently of the bodies being investigated, we saw in the Hayne RC that a sympathetic justice results in nothing, even the Banking RC, has not addressed the big issue, (Banks ability to charge for non-services – for example charging you for NOT processing a periodic payment when you have insufficient balance)
The Judiciary and legal profession has a lot of skin in the climate change game, this is political/ideological misbehaviour not commercial or criminal.
What’s actually needed is facilitation of independent enquiry, where the secret sauce can be exposed and obstacles to true science identified so that specific and binding orders can be applied to the BOM and CSIRO to fix the system so that anyone can acquire the data and metadata to reproduce their work at no cost. The public can be consulted on what aspects of this need looking at. At the very least this forces the BOM/CSIRO to do a reproducible ACORN 3.0 without the subjective elements using only properly documented and justified data alterations.
10
The concept that Site changes induce steps in the temperature record is obvious, but less obvious is the idea that the correction of faulty records produces a perfect outcome that purely reflects some change in the Climate that can be politically manipulated to profit interested parties to the ‘Climate Change/Global Warming’ Scam. This is the most interesting point contained here.
No datasets anywhere show a warming trend that is unequivocally due to the actual climate not haphazard local alterations. Following the money flow is very enlightening about people’s enthusiasm for CAGW.
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Welcome to the 969th edition of the Inverse Conversation.
This lovely gem was found shining on the previous thread.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/homogenisation-the-magical-system-which-uses-thermometers-in-victoria-to-correct-the-temperature-in-tasmania/#comment-2200431
Is this really useful, acceptable or worthwhile just for the extra financial support they give the blog?
KK
50
Their worth is exactly equal to the amount they contribute (in cash, not in amusement).
40
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/homogenisation-the-magical-system-which-uses-thermometers-in-victoria-to-correct-the-temperature-in-tasmania/#comment-2200431
Science??
Or abuse.
20
Sorry, this was for Graeme at 11.4
20
Keith I ave a . new policy;
Red thumb all Fitz’s comments.
He here just too waste our time, energy and be a pestiferous distraction.
And I found three comments from Fitz I had missed
So three red thumbs !
🙂
40
Bill
How many readers here actually read his comments? I for one mostly don’t.
If it is most then he’s poisoned his own well
70
KK this site unlike their sites allows a differing opinion and mostly the debunking of their claims helps our cause ,yes it does get over the top especially with the ideologically driven brainwashed hard line greenies who spout the same garbage claims again and again without offering a shred of actual evidence to back up their argument .
It does clog the blog and that is their aim (aah gee) admits as much on his well read blog .
Moderators do step in when it gets out of hand most times but censoring needs to be done carefully and requires a mod to be constantly watching comments .
If no one responded to their wild provoking climate claims especially the same monotonous garbage their self gratification would soon cease .
40
A not inconsiderable proportion of Wesley’s most vehement hecklers underwent abreaction and became acolytes which keeps alive my suspicion that AndyG55’s diligent cooking of Peter Fitzroy will eventually induce just such a spontaneous realization.
40
I take it that you are equating Andy with Wesley.
It seems to be working.
00
Difficult to know the exact that are referring to KK. Perhaps a blog comment number would help?
20
We forget Tony Abbott turned things around when he became PM when he realised the way the climate change data was used was a nonsense. Then the attacks and white-anting started and he eventually was toppled. All subsequent PMs (including the current one) have done nothing but obfuscate at best, and in one particular case (we all know who) tried his best to push the CAGW agenda as hard as any leftist. We are still suffering from his efforts despite him not being PM any longer, and it appears we have little hope of ever getting out of the rut we are currently experiencing. Enjoy the ride Australians. We are heading for a crash and burn scenario unless someone steps in and turns things around just as Tony Abbott did for a short while.
80
I see that one of them is quoted in the Oz as saying that the reason our electricity prices are so high is all the deniers . . . Go figure. Someone with a substantial sum invested in ‘renewables’, perhaps?
90
Believe that was Turncoat.
80
Ok then, Someone whose Son is heavily invested in renewables.
10
Invested in anything which will return a quick buck for the would be Gordon Gecko he spawned more like; check out the Four Corners Uber Story interview in which Alex expresses admiration for the open criminality of Uber’s business tactics which saw the GoCatch company he’d backed withdraw from the contest with UberX in Australia.
10
The ultimate reason why our electricity prices are too high is because we have had successive state and federal governments who have allowed billions of subsidies to be given to reenewables while our coal fired are left to die. Our current governments are continuing on with the same policies. The irony is we now have an effective “carbon tax” far more draconian than anything even Gillard could have implemented. This nation has gone mad.
70
In defence of government, Angus Taylor wants to replace old coal fired power stations with Hele coal fired power stations.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6428691/energy-minister-goes-against-own-adviser/?cs=14231
10
“replace old coal fired power stations with Hele coal fired power stations.”
This would achieve a FAR GREATER REDUCTION in emissions of CO2 than any amount of erratic, unreliable “renewables” would do.
30
All talk but no action thus far. Next step is for the federal government to put into place tax incentives for power companies to build the HELE plants. It’s the only way given the incentives still present in using renewables and the disincentives in building any type of coal fired power station, HELE or not. Let’s see if the LNP have any integrity and honesty remaining to do so.
10
Democracy operates slowly, in search of equilibrium.
‘Opposition resources spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon will call on Labor to reach a “sensible settlement” on climate change and adopt the Morrison government’s 2030 emissions reduction target, arguing that the policy shift would lift the party’s support in working-class and regional areas.’ Oz
00
Democracy operates almost instantly on election day. The rest of the time democracy is put back into the cupboard until the next election day and we are left with elected representatives who too often ignore or go against the wishes of the people. A few times they comply to our wishes but it’s too often too slow and tends to be too late. Little by little this once great nation is being dismantled. How far it goes depends on when the people finally decide to elect a different government other than the two major parties, which is highly unlikely given our electoral system.
20
Morrison told the UN he is against globalism if it comes into conflict with the electorate. Statesman like, he is telling the world community that if Australians want coal fired power stations then by god they are going to get them, its up to the states.
Our compulsory voting system is worth discussing.
00
Morrison’s UN speech was more about meeting our emissions target under the Paris Agreement. A leader who really believed in coal powered stations would not have said that and would instead take us out of the agreement.
20
Realpolitik.
00
A proper bureau, yes, but not one that busies itself about climate. What on earth would be the day to day business of a government department dedicated to climate? Apart from being “junket central” that is.
Back to weather for the BOM thanks, so farmers, sailors and pilots have accurate and useful information. If it’s useful to academics too, that’s nice, but NOT very important. They can always consult tree rings, can’t they.
90
Look I’m sorry but I have NEVER heard of incompetence in a govt dept.
OK, would you believe I’ve rarely seen evidence of incompetence?
Would you believe I routinely see it but that it doesn’t impact on policy?
Fine. I see it daily. It determines policy.
Woteva.
🙂
90
🙂
One needs to be able to distinguish between incompetence and bad luck.
Incompetence is ineptitude and lack of ability.
Bad luck is when you don’t see it.
10
OT but does anyone have data on natural CO2 utilisation rates and atmospheric concentration decline?
20
?
10
The exchange rate has been reported as low as four and a half years but a seven year half life is also thrown about.
Taking the 7 years, then half of all atmospheric CO2 is “changed” or renewed in that time.
Human Origin CO2 is taken as being about 4% of atmospheric CO2?
20
K.K. Only if you consider the biosphere as a constant. Uncontroversially studies show that biosphere expansion consumes about half human CO2 annually, (that is, that only 50% of human emissions appears in the atmosphere after a year).
This implies a half life of 1 year with biosphere expansion accounted and under 5 years to reach equilibrium.
10
Here..https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=17&v=jr3NCCEf58A
10
How would you separate natural CO2 from man-made CO2 in the atmosphere Antoine?
10
sorry that question is ambiguous – what is the uptake rate of CO2 by plant life? What is the rate at which [CO2] decreases due to natural processes?
20
This is all reminiscent of the Scholastics arguing about the number of angels that could be arrayed on the head of a pin; today we argue the toss over the anthropogenic contribution to the observed increase of a trace gas currently comprising .04% of the atmosphere and our children and grandchildren are exhorted to become disciples of the Soros funded school dropout Greta Thunderbox’s activist claque. Spot the difference if you’re able.
50
How I should have phrased the question – if we waste time to reduce emissions of CO2 to net zero by 2025 which is what the morons in Extinction Rebellion want us to do, what would be the proposed timescale for reduction in atmospheric [CO2]?
If an assumption of the validity of anthropogenic global warming was made, and the Russian model is the only one which reflects real world observations, how fast would atmospheric [CO2] return to whatever level they consider acceptable.
40
Essentially immediately.
The ocean holds 98% of “uncombined” CO2.
Any withdrawal of CO2 from the atmosphere will be replaced by CO2 from the ocean.
40
Exactly, the carbon footprint is unerasable regardless of the wishful thinking driven consensus of school dropouts who’ve abandoned all hope of ever understanding why it is so.
30
And if we took all of the CO2 from the ocean the result would be that fish would not be able to create backbones and oysters would not be able to make shells.
30
If emissions held constant, equilibrium to 95% would occur in around 4 years due to global greening.
Of course (as clearly pointed out by KK and others) GHG emissions can’t ever actually be held constant since 97% of CO2 and closer to 100% of water emissions are natural. Human emissions are in fact well beneath the established likely error and variability of natural emission estimates.
So while I can give you an “All things being equal” type of answer (4 years) as usual, in the real world, all things are not equal (ever).
Hope this helps.
30
thanks guys, appreciate that
10
I don’t know about the Russian model but there is a large AGW literature on this question. The standard answer is hundreds of years (to get “back” to 280 ppm). This is what is meant when they say our “pollution” will last hundreds of years or more, even though the CO2 molecules we emit only last a few years in the air before they are absorbed by natural sinks.
All speculation of course, taken as established fact. AGW is like that, a tower of speculation.
70
To get back down to 280ppm.. that is crazy talk !!!!
That would be an absolute DISASTER for the whole planet.
Food production would collapse, and massive famine would ensue.
40
To demonstrate how bad the BOM is I was told by a friend who has a cattle property 20 klms S.E. of Blackall and on the 27th of March they had very heavy rain in the area and recorded around 150 mm as did surrounding properties. In speaking with a BOM person he was told that the AWS that BOM has on his property 300 metres from the house had recorded 300 mm of rain that day. When told that could not be correct as no one received that much anywhere in the area he was told that the BOM figure must be correct.
Further the flood recording for the Barcoo River on their instrument was 1.9 metres higher than the actual. No amount of discussion could convince the BOM person they were wrong and I guess more incorrect data went into the records
130
This proves that people are holding BOM to account
Very normal as the BOM is paid by out=r money
As fro Fitz,
Red thumbs
All the way down !
40
Well, this post proves 2 things
1. You can access the original data
2. No one here has any idea about the difference between climate and weather.
/climate uses cells with with a length of 2-500 kms a side, Weather, around 5k
132
Your inability to grasp basic mathematical principles is quite bizarre, PF !!
“Climate” is FAR LESS ACCURATE than “weather”.. which is only semi-accurate for 3-4 days, at best.
So “Climate”, is almost almost totally inaccurate at any time scale.
This shown by the “climate models”, near ZERO accuracy.
That seems to be the point you are trying to make.
Finally getting there PF ! 😉
“No one here has any idea about the difference between climate and weather.”
Especially NOT you.
—
Now to get over your hatred of CO2 and plant life.
160
Peter, I don’t believe this conversation is about measurement cell size. Unless I have mis-interpreted this topic, it’s about moving a temperature measuring site to a totally different location but still claiming that it’s a continuous temperature record, which it clearly cannot be.
170
G3 – “Port Hedland is supposedly “one of the best” researched sites in Australia — so it is a certified ACORN site (one of the 112)”
ACORN is the dataset used for climate, and since the climate GCM uses a cell size of between 200 and 500 km there will be some homogenisation in that dataset
ADAM is used to feed the GCM used to predict weather (yes they are the same model) but uses small cells (5km per side) and ADAM is not homogenised.
Now if you are measuring a cell which has a side of up to 500k, then moving the actual site around a bit will have little impact. The size of the screen clearly does, but…
The change over was accompanied with the installation of automatic instruments, which were calibrated for those smaller screens. In any case, the rise in temp is recorded by all observing organisations, and including the later satellite measurements.
My points stand
121
Childish attempt to distract.
Already ADMITS claimate models are FAR LESS ACCURATE than weather models.
Shows that he thinks measurement accuracy DOESN’T matter for climate trend.
So anti-science.
/PF luvs crap data
111
“My points stand”
No, your point FAILS in every respect, PF
/PF = Anti-science
161
Again Peter, you seem to have ignored the points I have made. And I will again strongly challenge any process that alters the data from an ocean-side site with a site hundreds of kms away in the hot interior of WA’s north – this is clearly a VERY wrong practice.
Your comment “the size of the screen clearly does” is interesting, because you reference a document that again defers to Warne 1998, to which I have commented on below in 18.2. It seems that the BOM disagrees with you on this point.
It’s not about any rise in temp that is being recorded, it’s all about the AMOUNT of that rise that is being disputed here. And if you remove all the biases that bad recording practices seemed to have introduced, then it’s very questionable if there is any noticeable temp rise at all.
140
G4 – I’m saying that if yo have a cube 500k on a side, you only have one measurement that must be a representative value for that cube.
As to the amount (rise)- BOM figures are in broad agreement with the rest of the world and with the satellites
remember that climate is also on a baseline of 30 years, it is not weather.
122
Again, surely it’s not about cube size, more about the basic fundamentals of how the measurements are recorded, then what is being done with the recorded data.
I believe this blog is focusing on what is occurring in Australia, not the rest of the world, so whether or not the results are “in broad agreement” with something else is not being discussed here. In any case, saying that something “in broad agreement” I believe hints of consensus, an absolute no-no in science.
And yes, we are talking about how temperature recordings have changed over the years, thus I believe we are talking about climate, not weather, so not sure what the validity of your last paragraph is all about.
120
“remember that climate is also on a baseline of 30 years”
On someone’s “rule” ???
Who was that someone that decided on 30 years ?
Just more AGW rubbish and fabrication.!
Chosen so people didn’t go back to the 1930s, 40s.
Anyway, as you are well aware, NOTHING has changed in the global climate in the last 40 years, at least, that has been caused by humans.
120
Oh and this is a WUWT article showing the agreement
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/04/australia-surface-temperatures-compared-to-uah-satellite-data-over-the-last-40-years/
018
Spenser actually says
“Now we can see evidence of an enhanced warming trend in the Tsfc data versus the satellite over the most recent 20 years, which amounts to 0.40 deg. C during April 1999 – March 2019. I have no opinion on whether this is some natural fluctuation in the relationship between surface and tropospheric temperatures, problems in the surface data, problems in the satellite data, or some combination of all three.
Fitz did you read that ?
Stop trying to bull us you fool !
160
Listen Bill – this is UAH – it shows a warming, and it agrees with BOM for the 40 year period. In climate 20 years is not considered relevant.
“I have no opinion on whether this is some natural fluctuation in the relationship between surface and tropospheric temperatures, problems in the surface data, problems in the satellite data, or some combination of all three” – he is talking about the correlation between the 2.
/context is everything, except for cherrypickers.
017
“it shows a warming”
BULLSHIT !!!
No warming in Australia in the last 20 years
Nothing you say is considered relevant, PF
Great to know that BOM shows NO WARMING from 1980-1996, either, hey PF 😉
/PF HATES real data.
140
RUBBISH !!!
No warming in Australia in the last 20 years
Great to know that BOM shows NO WARMING from 1980-1996, either, hey PF 😉
/PF loathes real data.
120
As you can see, two periods of NO WARMENING, with a slight step between, around the time of the 1998 El Nino.
So absolutely no sign of any human induced warming for Australia EVEN WITH the urban stations effect.
/PF so sad that data makes him look a fool. ! 😉
80
‘In a new study, scientists have discovered that complex calculations performed by computers can be off by as much as 15 percent, due to a “pathological” inability to grasp the true mathematical complexity of chaotic dynamical systems.
“Our work shows that the behaviour of the chaotic dynamical systems is richer than any digital computer can capture,” says computational scientist Peter Coveney from UCL in the UK.
Phys.org
60
oh and it is using UAH
018
So BOM shows no warming of Australia in 20 years either, is that what you are saying
Thanks PF
/PF faceplants again
140
“and including the later satellite measurements.”
You mean the ZERO TREND of UAH over Australia since 1998?
/PF hates facts
130
UM WRONG
If I have a weather station parked in my back yard irrigated orchard, representing an area on 500 sq km, then I take that whether station and plonk it in the middle of my black bitumen driveway surrounded by my mission brown tin fence with the aircon exhaust pointing at it to represent that same 500 square km area, then i’m going radically change the assumed climate of that whole 500 square km cell from wet subtropical rainforest to arid.
The problem here you don’t get is that the weather stations are point data, that is they represent only the micro climate at the installation, you can’t extend that to your huge cell unless the location of the weather station is exactly representative of the entire cell. (Which is never true because each cell is a collection of microclimates). Importantly topology changes things and cell topology is NOT accounted for.
It’s also impossible because historically weather stations were NOT placed to represent a climate cell, and we can’t go back and magically make it so.
Consider a cell in Brisbane, Brisbane has a radically different climate depending on wind direction, when westerly’s blow it’s essentially arid, northerlies it’s tropical, southerlies/easterlies – subtropical. Wind depends on time of day here. Then there is the great dividing range, it’s cooler in them thar foothills, and the topology deflects the wind and causes weather. You can’t characterise that cell without taking into account wind direction and topology (fluid dynamics) – certainly not by (min+max)/2. How much climate estimate error comes from wind variability and topological effects, do we know … well oops, no we don’t because we just use (min+max)/2 at a point location in a single microclimate.
60
NO.
Climate is a long term variation of local conditions. Actually the term earth’s climate is a misnomer.
120
30
theRealUniverse,
Yes!! Exactly climate is a local/regional effect NOT a global effect.
Also ‘Average Global Temperature’ is a meaningless metric for indicating climate change. It shows nothing about how or why the climate changes as climate is local/regional phenomena.
e.g. If over some years, the poles were to warm by 0.2°C, while the equatorial regions cooled by an amount that causes no change in ‘Average Global Temperature’ this would give an entirely different climatic effect than if the opposite happened (if the equatorial regions warm by 0.2°C and the poles cooled by an amount that causes no change in ‘Average Global Temperature’)
Overall both these scenarios give no change to the ‘Average Global Temperature’ However the change in climate for each scenario is radically different!
160
When quoting a mean one should also cite the range. In the case of global temperature around 15C, range (-89C to +50) or thereabout.
Starts to look sublimely ridiculous if one is arguing about an anomaly of 0.98+/-0.27 C per century.
90
eh –
Climates can be classified according to the average and the typical ranges of different variables, most commonly temperature and precipitation. The most commonly used classification scheme was the Köppen climate classification. The Thornthwaite system, in use since 1948, incorporates evapotranspiration along with temperature and precipitation information and is used in studying biological diversity and how climate change affects it. The Bergeron and Spatial Synoptic Classification systems focus on the origin of air masses that define the climate of a region. (wiki)
I’m unsure where you get ‘world’ and ‘change’ form that, unless, of course, you are referring to Anthropogenic induced Global Climate Change
023
No evidence, just copy-paste of irrelevant distraction, you know nothing about.
/PF fails again.
141
You sophistry has nothing to do with what I wrote. That lame distraction is too obvious to comment about.
Go back and try again.
140
What is the regional climate of Venus? Saturn?
The only time world is used is in the frame that the change is global affecting all climates.
/funny that technical usage is so difficult on this site
020
Another moronic attempt at distraction
/PD = no technical knowhow at all.
140
Peter Fitzroy October 8, 2019 at 11:54 am
Yet another inane distraction of little worth.
You appear to have a problem with concentrating on this planet and it’s climate, instead you zoom of to some alien space …
Ho-humm, you’re just so tiresome.
140
Sorry, but your point is inane. you are conflating two seperate definitions and then pretending that they make no sense.
A global change will affect all climates. Do yo not understand that?
019
Again you misunderstand. Maybe some day you’ll get the message.
For now I’ll just repeat it for you …
‘Average Global Temperature’ is a meaningless metric for indicating climate change. It shows nothing about how or why the climate changes as climate is local/regional phenomena.
150
if you had understood that I was responding to this “Climate is a long term variation of local conditions.” by “theRealUniverse [sic], and not to your made up inanity of world climate perhaps you could have realised that I was not talking about you.
019
/PF = more childish blog-clogging
100
A global change will affect all climates.”
All climates are NOT affected, not even by UHI effects
So PF is admitting there is NO “global” climate change.
Apart from a very minor solar warming…..
What has changed in the climate in the last 40 years that can be scientifically linked to human causes ?
/PF = petty distractions.
130
Peter Fitzroy October 8, 2019 at 12:31
Which makes your subsequent babble of your comments appear even more irrelevant.
70
‘What is the regional climate of Venus? Saturn?’
Does it have something to do with blackbody radiation?
60
Saturn is a gas giant planet, it has no defined ‘climate’ or surface.
So PF ignorance again.
Venus is consistently ~450C at 100bar, due to gas laws and solar input.
60
” referring to Anthropogenic induced Global Climate Change”
Why would he do that?
YOU have already proven there is no evidence of any anthropogenic induce Global climate change… MANY times.
100
‘No one here has any idea about the difference between climate and weather.’
Sir … sir … I heard on the ABC that this is caused by Sudden Stratospheric Warming, what do you think?
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
40
Weather and climate.
‘As the Polar Vortex breaks down, the cold stormy weather which is usually locked to Antarctica moves north. Where the vortex splits will affect where the cold conditions will be. Cold stormy weather could affect Australia, New Zealand, South America, or somewhere over the vast ocean.
‘What we do know is that this event is unusual and will bring wild weather further north than normal. Depending on how the vortex splits, we might be in for a very wintery spring.’
Uni Melbourne
60
Certainly weather, not certainly climate, but it could be the harbinger.
013
If a strong SSW turns up once every 50 years, then its cyclic and by its very nature, climate.
50
Sorry, a one off every 50 years is a statistic, it is not climate by any definition I’m familiar with. What, if you don’t mind, is your definition?
07
Weather is everyday and climate is a 30 year trend, but nature ignores those restrictions. Here is the SSW in real time.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.gif
50
… and while we are in Antarctica, the transition from a glacial world into the Holocene interglacial was caused by a volcanic eruption 17,700 years ago. Who knew?
https://icecores.org/indepth/fall-2017/massive-antarctic-volcanic-eruptions-linked-abrupt-southern-hemisphere-climate
40
Volcanoes also seem to be implicated during the Dark Age and LIA cooling.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379119304123
This is climate change comrade and its quite different to the slant you project.
40
Rubbish, climate is a particular set of representative weather conditions at a location (as in Polar, Tropical, Equatorial, Subtropical, Arid it is inherently regional in nature) we can characterise microclimates according to the same climatic norms, so in your greenhouse you might establish a tropical microclimate.
The idea of a spatial average of (min + Max) / 2 being a “Climate” for the planet is nuts, its a meaningless number that has no relevance because it shows nothing about how change might be distributed across the world. For example if the average increased 3 degrees but that change was only manifested over oceans and polar caps in the depth of winter, then it’s essentially irrelevant to all life on earth.
30
Why was the size of the Stevenson Screen changed to a smaller one?
This study shows a 0.54C hotter bias for smaller size screens.
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4287
100
“This study shows a 0.54C hotter bias for smaller size screens”
Now you have the reason.
110
That’s an interesting result for max temps David, and notably differs from the results of the BOM trial. Quoting from the BOM’s Acord-sat 2 paper, section 3.3.4, page 17:
“A field trial carried out at a Bureau test site at Broadmeadows, Victoria (Warne 1998) in 1995-96 found that the ‘small’ screen had mean maximum temperatures 0.094 C higher than those in the ‘large’ screen, and mean minimum temperatures 0.082 C lower. These combine to produce a negligible impact on mean temperatures (+0.006 C), which is considered too small to warrant adjustments in ACORN-SAT version 1.”
110
Wow. So they accept that the smaller screens increase recorded maximums, but they just write it off? Even their favoured value of +0.094 (as opposed to the 0.54C values) would make a real difference.
70
They wrote off more issues than just that one John. The Acorn-Sat 2 document is worth a read.
What I’ve also realised that Blair Trewin has apparently developed the BOM’s homogenisation algorithms himself, so naturally he will defend them forever. Whether or not these homogenisation algorithms are based on those used in other countries, or indeed aligns with others in other countries, is I presume not known at this stage.
90
Interesting. I just read a few of his articles to get a feel for his “underlying assumptions”, so to speak. It’s a worry that such a person would be in charge of the official temperature record.
50
Yes. I believe that it’s always a problem when one person seems to control how a public organisation behaves without being held to account for their actions.
I haven’t as yet read the TAF Report. I looked at the folks on the committee and they seemed to be very good, but I now want to look at the TAF’s terms of reference, whether it only covered the maths, algorithms and stats processes used, or whether it also dealt with the issues that have been raised here in the last two blogs – I suspect that their ref terms don’t.
It’s concerning that we seem to be working in the dark here and can easily fall into the trap of making the wrong assumptions. As a public organisation, The BOM seems to be very opaque.
40
Yep, have confirmed that the TAF’s terms of reference did NOT cover the issues constantly raised in these blogs.
50
So yet another red herring from PF.
poor little fella is unable to take a trick.
Next round needs to look at WHY BOM still have so many CRAP sites in their homogenisation set-up
Plenty of urban warming to choose from. 😉
The ONLY time of man-made warming ever found.. so smear it over the whole country, and the whole world.
NOTHING TO DO WITH CO2 !!
30
from the 2017 report
Developments since the 2011 Independent Peer Review (IPR) of ACORN-SAT data and methods including:
• ACORN-SAT network, in the context of the Bureau’s Observation strategy;
• Addition of new temperature data, including from individual stations and data post-2010, and whether there is merit in inclusion of pre-1910 data;
• Progress with metadata to allow independent replication of homogeneity analyses;
• Progress against the IPR recommendations; and
• Extent of scientific adoption of data and analyses.
The scientific integrity and robustness of the Australian climate record and the homogenisation process including:
• Compared to raw (unadjusted) data, how does homogenisation affect the overall climate trend for Australia?
• Compared to other available datasets how do the trends indicated by ACORN-SAT compare?
• How does the Bureau’s curation methods compare to other international curation methods?
• What steps should be taken to document or improve the consistency of decision making for the selection of data periods or stations and of the adjustment methods and decisions?
• How has the ABS assessed ACORN-SAT as part of the Essential Statistical Assets for Australia?
my bold
09
MANY bad sites
MUCH bad data
NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE.
/PF = denier of facts in front of his eyes.
50
G4,
If you are interested, I wrote a 15 page criticism of the TAF report and sent a copy to each member of the forum. No response. Let me know your email if you would like a copy. Geoff S
00
BOM also admit that the smaller screens mean that the temperature sensor are subjected to more variation from transient heating effects from the local surroundings, and the new temperature measuring devices are designed to record the minimums and maximums NOT average temperature.
Unlike the old (larger) screens which retained a volume of air in them that acted like a buffer to transient and anomalous temperature variations (vehicles or animal getting close to the weather station, or on an airfield, planes passing by). Although these screens and old devices measured min and max temperatures they naturally and effectively filtered out fast transient changes just by the combined action of the air volume buffer and the slow response time of the mercury/alcohol thermometers.
Overall the effect is that the new screens and electronic thermometers device ensure that the maximum temperature transients are measured, and given that minimum transient hardly ever happens — if at all, an overall warming bias occurs.
100
Oops, forgot something …
References
Perry, M.C., Prior, M.J. and Parker, D.E. 2007. An assessment of the suitability of a plastic
thermometer screen for climatic data collection. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 267-276.
and
Warne, J. 1998. A preliminary investigation of temperature screen design and their impacts on
temperature measurements. Instrument Test Report 649, Bureau of Meteorology,
Melbourne.
80
you might want to consider this BOM page http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/#tabs=Expert-review
and the recommendations from the technical advice committee http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/documents/2017_TAF_Report.pdf
/everything is shipshape and as it should be in BOM
018
DENIAL of all the CRAP sites, and the massive adjustments and smearing of urban temperatures across vast non-applicable areas.
Reviewers were very much PAL-reviewers.
/PF, sinking in deep denial
130
Like a fox caught with feathers around his mouth saying “I didn’t do it!”
Poor chicken-littles.
100
‘Following the conclusion of the Forum in 2017, the Bureau have committed to establishing a new assurance advisory mechanism comprised of independent experts from relevant scientific disciplines to support the ongoing maintenance and development of the Bureau’s climate datasets, including ACORN-SAT.’
Independent experts like Jennifer Marohasy?
120
Well that would be a good idea, better inside the tent and all that
113
I meant to thank you for these BOM document references Peter. As yet I haven’t had time to read the TAF report; not sure if somebody else has already done so and can comment.
I’m also not sure that I can agree with you about “everything is shipshape” however, otherwise folks wouldn’t be continuously raising these issues. It appears that “where there’s smoke there’s fire” may apply, but the extent of the conflagration is TBD. I’m not sure that the terms of reference for the TAF report cover the issues raised here.
50
We shall see, certainly Frydenberg was happy about it.
18
Peter, unfortunately the TAF’s terms of reference only covered the data homogenisation process, the algorithms and the internal processes used, not the issues of main concern in this blog. The TAF also notes that it would be beneficial if the homogenisation process was automated – this clearly indicates that, based on the other BOM process documents, the process definitely involves human intervention.
50
from the 2017 report . – these are the remaining terms of reference
Developments since the 2011 Independent Peer Review (IPR) of ACORN-SAT data and methods including:
• ACORN-SAT network, in the context of the Bureau’s Observation strategy;
• Addition of new temperature data, including from individual stations and data post-2010, and whether there is merit in inclusion of pre-1910 data;
• Progress with metadata to allow independent replication of homogeneity analyses;
• Progress against the IPR recommendations; and
• Extent of scientific adoption of data and analyses.
The scientific integrity and robustness of the Australian climate record and the homogenisation process including:
• Compared to raw (unadjusted) data, how does homogenisation affect the overall climate trend for Australia?
• Compared to other available datasets how do the trends indicated by ACORN-SAT compare?
• How does the Bureau’s curation methods compare to other international curation methods?
• What steps should be taken to document or improve the consistency of decision making for the selection of data periods or stations and of the adjustment methods and decisions?
• How has the ABS assessed ACORN-SAT as part of the Essential Statistical Assets for Australia?
my bold
06
That was the report, the response is here
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/documents/ACORN-SAT-TAF-2017-Response-to-Report.pdf
Can you be more specific about what is of concern.
The Raw data, the ADAM dataset, and the ACORN-SAT are all available online
The methods for adjustment and homogenisation are published.
All this is under peer review.
Instrumentation issues are handled with as well, but have a different panel
17
There cannot be any remaining terms of reference for the Forum Peter, because there isn’t any more Forum. 2017 was its last year.
Those points are I believe the recommendations for continuing work, and it’s now up to the BOM to implement them in future – or not.
(Would need to recheck the TAF Report to confirm this.)
But none of this impacts my observation that the main issues raised here in this blog aren’t addressed by the TAF.
So how would these issues ever be addressed?
50
I may be thick but..
The blog constantly talks about changes in the data for the ACORN-SAT Dataset. The original data, and that in ADAM are still there, and they are not homogenized. The ADAM data is fed to the GCM (with 5k cells) to produce the daily, and weekly forecasts. ACORN data is fed into the GCM (with 500k cells) for longer term predictions.
There are far fewer ACORN sites remember.
Why is it so hard to explain that the adjustments are for ACORN only, they are not applied to the original data.
15
Well I might be missing the point, but I thought that the main objection to homogenisation was not anything to do with the data processing, but why homogenisation was ever done in the first place.
I believe that a main concern of the folks here is that the impact of homogenisation has been to increase the “warming” of the data.
The other concerns relate to poor measurement siting and the use of newer measurement techniques that have also increased the “warming”.
I’m not denying that our lovely planet has warmed, but the total effects of some of the BOM actions seem to have increased the data “warming” to distort the true amount of actual warming that has occurred.
(I’ll look at your response then vanish for the evening – it’s been a long day staring into a computer screen.)
50
“but why homogenisation was ever done in the first place.”
And why it is done using such hideously BAD DATA.
They KNOW they are using urban heat contaminated sites.
That is why site justification was left out of the terms of reference.
PF then continues to STRESS that climate models are a few magnitudes less accurate than weather models that can only forecast 3-4 days.
He obviously has the same opinion of climate models as we do
ie TOTALLY USELESS. !!
50
So much extraordinarily BAD DATA from CRAP site.
And PF is so ANTI-SCIENCE that he cannot see the problem
And that urban warming data is USED to CREATE trends that don’t exist in the raw data.
/PF = clueless about data and science.
50
“ACORN data is fed into the GCM (with 500k cells) for longer term predictions.”
What PF is trying to tell us, is that the ADJUSTED data, with all that urban heat and bad site data homogenised into it, is used for climate model predictions.
He has just made the point we have been trying to make for ages, that climate models are load of pre-adjusted, pre-destined, basically frordulent, anti-science.
Thanks PF for making that point so clear to everyone. 🙂
You keep doing a wonderful job. 🙂
First admitting that there is no evidence for CO2 warming.
Second, admitting there has been no human caused global climate change in the last 40 years.
Now admitting that climate models are a load of totally farcical junk.
/nice to have you on the realist side, PF. 😉
60
Yes Fitz, you are thick !
Ken Stewart is again checking out the BOM’s weather stations
All 720 of the temperature ones.
Doing North Qld now
And ‘so far’ 124 of then
Fail to meet the BOM’s own bloody guidelines.
That’s over 16% of the total 720
But around 25% of the ones examined so far.
Flawed and dopey weather stations
Feeding their false data
Into BOM’s computer networks
Creating complete garbage in
And of course Complete garbage out
GIGI !
Go look Fitz !
I dare you to read Ken’s posts !
They might undermine your whole ideology.
And leave you without a purpose in life.
🙂
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/
00
Who chose these ‘peers’?
10
David Maddison,
BOM documentation says otherwise (see HERE ) and they say —
70
You can imagine them at a future Royal Commission inquiry on ‘data fiddling’..”it was our screens sir, we changed them and all the temperatures went up, it wasnt our fault..”
60
“The air-con outlets, tin sheds and tar roads weren’t our fault, either.” !!
70
Why do the smaller screens read hotter? Doe the additional size act as thermal buffer and smooth the peaks?
Does the homogenisation process take that into account in any way?
60
No, apparently the homogenisation process doesn’t take the screen size into account. See my comment at 18.2.
80
It’s wrapped into the 1st homogenization process, a process that does not differentiate between the various reasons for ‘inhomogeneities’ (the date of the data is immaterial in the process, they are all just processed). After that the stations are adjusted as part of the 2nd process for geographical homogenization.
It’s like taking a picture and first reduce the difference in color and contrast at boundary edges of some elements, the elements that are above a certain threshold in the picture regardless of what they mean in the image. Then apply a second process of reducing to the now smeared image that further reduces the color, focus, and contrast over large areas of the picture. Some advocates of this technique now believe that the processed low color, defocused, low contrast image can show more information.
00
The original townsite of Port Hedland was quite small and was situated right on the ocean front. The airport was 7 miles inland across the barren and hot salt marshes. Two totally different sites. Was there in the early 60s when it was still a frontier town and the mining effort was just getting underway.
90
Do those records still exist? Canadian authorities have deleted data that did not fit the narrative. Climategate in East Anglia is well-known. Science? No, not really. Indeed, not even possible using the weather records we have given the malarkey of government agencies (including so-called universities) and crony capitalists—and political watermelons.
Two contrary phrases capture our plight: “The Treason of the intellectuals” and “The Moral obligation to be intelligent”. The (probably) more familiar first quotation appears irreversible, the second (used recently as a book title) simply does not fit the age.
70
O/T Well at least the coral reefs off Port Hedland will be saved from rising temperatures by the rising sea level — if they rise that is.
A new study finds rising sea levels PROTECT coral reefs from bleaching and mass deaths.
Long-term observation of coral reefs indicate rising sea levels “not only promoted coral cover” but also “limit damaging effects of thermally-induced bleaching” (Brown et al., 2019).
https://notrickszone.com/2019/10/07/a-new-study-finds-rising-sea-levels-protect-coral-reefs-from-bleaching-and-mass-deaths/
Broome sea level plot
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_62650_SLI.shtml
60
That doesn’t surprise me at all.
The GBR bleaching in 2015/16 was caused by LOW water levels because of the El Nino.
70
That sort of talk is heresy at JCU.
50
Im watching the thermometer, yes its electronic..BOM predicted temperature 35C today,
yesterday 34C , actual 29.5!
O I dont have a screen…
50
updated today my car ‘thermo-guessometer’ 26C! @ 3pm
30
24.5˚C at 2 pm on my work-van’s screenless guessometer (Mr Mercedes wouldn’t lie, surely!). 3 kms away, from inland sheltered valley to sea level coastal road, 18˚C – six-and-a-half degrees of
homogenisedmicro-climate cooling.I see the BøM have issued a grubby video about QLD’s ‘heat wave’, yet their forecast has temps dropping to 27, then 24, down to 14 overnight by Friday, a ~250% drop. Don’t they teach Young Einsteins about warm fronts and cool changes anymore? Meanwhile, south of the border(s), FREEZING at Mt Hotham with SNOW, -6˚C min tomorrow, then MORE SNOW Thur, Fri and Sat:
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mounthotham.shtml
Plus it was snowing at Charlotte Pass, NSW today: https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Charlotte-Pass/webcams/latest
Our MetService & NIWA are just as crooked as your BøøM (and the Stinky Rebels too – same sponsors methinks).
30
We had sleet here this morning in northeast Victoriastan
30
I have to say that I was unaware that the Stephenson screens had been reduced (for some time now) from 230 litres to 60 liters. Now I am not a ‘scientist’ but I am a retired draughtsmen with an engineering background & qualification, and my intuition alone tells me that such a change in volume of the ‘temperature measuring chamber’ would inevitably result in higher air temperature readings from the thermometer housed within. Where is the common sense with these people who have instigated such changes. It just doesn’t make sense to me.
GeoffW
90
A wonderful comment from a Brad Keyes, on ‘Whatsupwiththat’, in reply to the article, “What if there is no climate emergency?”
“Oh, come on.
If there were no climate crisis, if it was all just a false alarm, then the climate movement would have to stoop to rudeness, fallacy, intimidation, a Faustian pact with the political class, an eclectic repertoire of propaganda techniques combining the worst of both Orwellian and Goebbelian traditions, historical revisionism, weasel-wordiness, tweaking and ultimately abandoning the rules of science, non-standard statistical methods, Lysenkoist punitive psychology, forgery, secrecy, resurrecting the putrid zombie called consensus-as-evidence who was supposed to have been staked, decapitated and buried in unshriven ground upon the advent of evidence-as-evidence 300 years ago, and plain old-fashioned mendacity in order to keep their dogma in the ascendancy despite its theoretical bankruptcy.
Sorry, but I just don’t see that happening.”
130
Brad lives? Huzzah!
Humour the hucksters back into the hole they crawled out of. Long live Mr Keyes!
30
The data also contains errors. I’ve been comparing the BOM’s observed temperatures and the Climate Data Online temperatures for a couple of places, one of which is Redesdale in Victoria. The Climate Data Online maximum temperatures are sometimes the same, but usually between 0.1°C and 2°C higher and the minimum Climate Data temperatures similarly lower than the observed temperatures. A reason could be that the observed temperatures are done, for Resesdale at least, half hourly while I assume the Climate Data max and min temperatures occur at a precise time but this is not shown.
However, for Redesdale, the minimum temperature on the Climate Data Online site was 10.2°C and this was also the observed temperature at 5:00 am yesterday. But the observed minimum temperature was 7.7°C at 9:30 pm yesterday. So, as well as homogenization of the data, there could be errors.
70
ABC is trying to work out how to incorporate the “environment” into its coverage!!!
8 Oct: SMH: ‘Much of the media is white and we’re not all white’: ABC chair Ita Buttrose says media needs greater ethnic diversity
by Jennifer Duke
Ms Buttrose said an ABC survey of 50,000 people that found the majority of Australians were concerned about issues like the environment and the broadcaster was trying to work out how to incorporate those interests into its coverage…
The ABC recently started an Australia Talks poll, in partnership with the University of Melbourne and Vox Pop Labs, to get a sense of the broader country’s opinions on hot button issues.
Ms Buttrose said the findings were a “goldmine” that would allow the broadcaster better insights into how to serve its audiences.
Preliminary results show the majority of Australians would be happier if they spent more time in nature, believed those in country areas were getting a “raw deal”, wanted more Indigenous justice and saw climate change as a significant concern.
Ms Buttrose said she agreed “wholeheartedly with the majority of Australians” on these issues.
“Anyone in government who thinks the Australian people do not believe in climate change is absolutely blinkered in their thinking,” she said…
The ABC’s leadership team and dozens of staff booked a bootcamp in September in the south-west Sydney suburb of Bankstown as part of a push to learn more about how to relate to the average Australian…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/much-of-the-media-is-white-and-we-re-not-all-white-abc-chair-ita-buttrose-says-media-needs-greater-ethnic-diversity-20191008-p52yk5.html
the survey is a joke. the only question (u have to wade through dozens to get to it) that has full sentence answeers to choose from is the one about CLIMATE CHANGE.
From what you know about climate change, which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion?
1) Climate change has been estabished as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary.
2) There is enough evidence that climate change is taking place and some action should be taken.
3) We don’t know enough about climate change and more research is necessary before we take any action
4) Concern about climate change is unwarranted.
next question:
How much more would you personally be willing to spend each year to help prevent climate change?
choices range from “nothing” to “$2,000: and, finally, “don’t know”.
next 3 questions:
How often would you say you feel…
Anxious?
How often would you say you feel…
Overwhelmed?
How often would you say you feel…
Lonely?
Ita worried about loneliness in the young, mental illness in children, and climate change:
VIDEO: 4min11sec: 8 Oct: ABC: ABC chair Ita Buttrose says political correctness has gone too far in Australia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-08/abc-chair-ita-buttrose-on-australia-talks-national-survey/11581482
30
not even excerpting the diversity stuff. Ita’s been there, done that before:
8 Oct: SMH: ‘Much of the media is white and we’re not all white’: ABC chair Ita Buttrose says media needs greater ethnic diversity
by Jennifer Duke
Ms Buttrose said an ABC survey of 50,000 people that found the majority of Australians were concerned about issues like the environment and the broadcaster was trying to work out how to incorporate those interests into its coverage…
The ABC recently started an Australia Talks poll, in partnership with the University of Melbourne and Vox Pop Labs, to get a sense of the broader country’s opinions on hot button issues.
Ms Buttrose said the findings were a “goldmine” that would allow the broadcaster better insights into how to serve its audiences.
Preliminary results show the majority of Australians would be happier if they spent more time in nature, believed those in country areas were getting a “raw deal”, wanted more Indigenous justice and saw climate change as a significant concern.
Ms Buttrose said she agreed “wholeheartedly with the majority of Australians” on these issues.
“Anyone in government who thinks the Australian people do not believe in climate change is absolutely blinkered in their thinking,” she said…
The ABC’s leadership team and dozens of staff booked a bootcamp in September in the south-west Sydney suburb of Bankstown as part of a push to learn more about how to relate to the average Australian…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/much-of-the-media-is-white-and-we-re-not-all-white-abc-chair-ita-buttrose-says-media-needs-greater-ethnic-diversity-20191008-p52yk5.html
AUDIO: 12min59sec: 8 Oct: ABC Breakfast: ABC chair Ita Buttrose on Australia Talks: Where do you fit in?
The ABC’s new Australia Talks project surveyed more than 50,000 Aussies to find out who we are, where we’re headed, and what we care about.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/abc-chair-ita-buttrose-on-australia-talks:-where-do-you-fit-in/11581468
setting aside partnering with Uno of Melbourne for this phony survey; the other partner is Canada’s Vox Pop Labs (which I’ve posted about previously).
Wikipedia: Vote Compass
It is operated by a social enterprise called Vox Pop Labs in partnership with leading, locale-specific news organizations, including the Wall Street Journal, Vox Media, the Canadian and Australian Broadcasting Corporations, Television New Zealand, France24, RTL Group, and Grupo Globo…
Vote Compass was developed by Clifton van der Linden, a professor in the Department of Political Science at McMaster University. It is presently run by van der Linden along with a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs…
20
btw meant to add that I had to click something to get to the next questions, so just clicked “don’t know” or “prefer not to say” in a few cases, to speed up the process and finally get to the CLIMATE CHANGE questions.
40
Hope you didn’t suffer any pre-traumatic stress disorder from the ordeal, pat. Seems a lot of environmental scientists and ER government workers are going down with it as of late. Ya thinks there’s a vaccine for that kind of stupid? Maybe a roll of 3M duct tape would ease their pain…
20
ABC grooming:
Oct 2018: ABC TripleJ Hack: News about climate change can be distressing. Here’s how to cope with ‘ecoanxiety’
By Ange McCormack
After hearing about a damning report into climate change last week – which basically gives the world 12 years to halve our emissions or else face uncontrollable climate change – 27-year-old Caitlin Grace sent Hack an email.
In the subject line Caitlin wrote, “Ecoanxiety”…
“I’ve gone full existential crisis,” Caitlin wrote while reeling from the IPCC findings.
“I’ve been having several panic attacks a day, can’t concentrate and just have a constant overwhelming feeling of impending doom.”…
Caitlin says she’s thought about climate change a lot in the past; a few years ago she was so committed to making change she decided to become a vegan for its environmental benefits. That wore off after a while and she went back into her “bubble”, but last week Caitlin says a “switch was flipped.”…
…Dr Susie Burke, a senior psychologist from the Australian Psychology Society says there’s plenty of research which has looked into climate change being a trigger for mental health issues like anxiety and depression…
The Australian Psychology Society has developed a bunch of resources to help people cope with feeling anxious about climate change…
Caitlin: “I’ve never been to a protest before but I’m now feeling the need to mobilise – I’m keen to get out on the street and be part of it.”…
Dr Burke also says it’s perfectly reasonable for someone like Caitlin Grace to seek professional help for what they’re feeling…
“This is the biggest issue of our time.”
If you or someone you know needs help, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/feeling-ecoanxiety/10378470
AUDIO: 24 May: ABC PM: Adani decision exacerbating ‘climate anxiety’
Decision time approaches for Adani – deadlines to decide environmental issues are now just weeks away. It’s welcome news for some – but might trouble others who are seeking psychological help for what’s being dubbed ‘climate anxiety’.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/pm/11125660
AUDIO: 24 May: ABC PM: Psychologists say ‘climate anxiety’ is rising in Australia
By Sarah Whyte on PM
But is it climate that’s causing the anxiety, or is anxiety finding a home in the climate story?
Featured:
Beth Taylor, mother of two
Susie Burke, psychologist regional Victoria
Dr Grant Blashki from Beyond Blue
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/psychologists-say-climate-anxiety-is-rising-in-australia/11148068
21 May: ABC TripleJ Hack: Feeling helpless about climate change? This doco is the uplifting call to arms you need right now
By Ange McCormack
We’ve had our hottest summer on record, the Great Barrier Reef is perishing before our eyes, climate emergencies have been declared, one million species are at risk of extinction, the planet could warm by two degrees by 2060, and on Saturday the major party with the weakest policy on climate change formed government in Australia.
It all reads like a shopping list of despair for young people grappling with an existential anxiety that could define their lives: what have we done to the planet? And how will we save it?
While sinking into misery might feel like the easiest way to process it all — in some ways it’s more cathartic to be furious rather than hopeful — a new Australian documentary (2040 by Damon Gameau) wants to lift those feeling crippled by ‘ecoanxiety'(***LINK) out of their funk…
VIDEO Trailer: 2040
The task is so urgent, Damon Gameau says, that it will become his only topic of interest as a filmmaker from now on.
“What else is there? This is the topic,” Damon says, “Because if we don’t get this right, there is no other film worth making.”
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/2040-film-climate-change-damon-gameau/11135038
40
I feel there is a lot of moral blackmail going on. Are we supposed to feel guilty for all the ‘eco-anxiety’ all these gullibles are suffering? Well, I don’t feel any guilt whatsoever; I just feel sorry that these people have been so misled by the real guilty parties, including the ABC, etc.
150
Same here Annie
Taken in by propaganda
Put out by publicly funded ABC and BOM !
70
Who knew your ABC did science fiction AND humour.
Oh wait…
50
The drip feeders in action again
30
Climate stress has replaced RSI as a good reason for bludgers to make a claim.
However, it can be a very serious ailment – look no further than Peter Fitzroy. The stress has turned him into a stark, raving DRONGO.
00
re Damon Gameau’s docu – 2040:
17 May: SMH: Damon Gameau gives us a real glimpse of a greener future in 2040
By Stephanie Bunbury
(Stephanie Bunbury has spent the past two decades flitting between Europe and Australia, writing about film, culture high and low and the arts)
…Gameau reassured the Hollywood magazine Variety, he isn’t taking an axe to capitalism. But isn’t that dodging the main issue?…
***He and a researcher from the ***ABC’s Catalyst programme started out by looking at different pressure points: soil, water, sequestering carbon…
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/damon-gameau-gives-us-a-real-glimpse-of-a-greener-future-in-2040-20190515-p51ngp.html
nowhere else can I find mention of this ABC researcher – did they work on ABC taxpayer-funded time? – nor their name…and certainly not on theirABC, which had plenty of opportunities to let their audience know:
AUDIO: 16min56sec: 7 Oct: ABC Brisbane Evenings: 2040: How current technology can save the planet
Presenter: Kelly Higgins-Devine
Speaking with some of the world’s best minds and using only technology that’s available now, award winning director Damon Gameau maps a pathway for change that could lead us to a more equitable and sustainable future…
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/brisbane/programs/evenings/damon-gameau-2040/11100650
AUDIO 10min19sec: 25 Apr: ABC Hobart: What the future could look like by the year 2040
On Evenings with Louise Saunders
Award-winning director Damon Gameau (That Sugar Film) embarks on journey to explore what the future could look like by the year 2040 if we simply embraced the best solutions already available to us to improve our planet and shifted them rapidly into the mainstream…
visited 14 countries, but bought offsets:
AUDIO: 14min26sec: 22 May: ABC Life Matters: A future world in 2040: Damon Gameau
Presenter: Michael Mackenzie
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/lifematters/2040:-damon-gameau/11107552
Karvelas: where do u start to find truth-based solutions?
Gameau: before filming anything, we spent 8 months with “some researchers”, interviewed more than a hundred scientists & academics & economists…
AUDIO: 17min02sec: 18 Jun: ABC Drawing Room: 2040 — Damon Gameau’s new documentary
Presented by Patricia Karvelas
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drawingroom/damon-gameau/11222164
TWEET: Damon Gameau
“Footage from 2040 will be shown to world leaders at the official opening of the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. The film will also be screened in full to UN Climate Summit Youth delegates.”
LINK Heavy.com
17 Sept 2019
—
21min to 28min29sec: Damon Gameau: spent 4 years travelling around the world for his daughter’s sake.
VIDEO: 29min15sec: 23 Sept: UN WebTV: Unlocking Climate Action Through Science, Technology And Innovation, SDG Action Zone during the High-Level Week
3) Telling a New Story
1) Speaker: Joseph Pallant, Founder, Blockchain for Climate Foundation
2) Speaker: Simonetta Di Pippo, Director, United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA).
3) Damon Gameau is a father of two daughters. Overwhelmed with the possibility of what their future might look like at its current trajectory, he spent 4 years travelling the world looking for the best solutions to our ecological crisis…
Speaker: Damon Gameau, Actor and Director
http://webtv.un.org/watch/unlocking-climate-action-through-science-technology-and-innovation-sdg-action-zone-during-the-high-level-week-23-september-2019/6088825546001/
17 Sept: Heavy.com: 2040 To Screen To United Nations
by Dave Griffiths
With its empowering, relatable and hopeful messages about the possibilities for the future of our environment, 2040 was selected by the UN and clips from the film will feature in a video to be projected 360 onto the walls of the hallowed UN General Assembly Hall…
Gameau will travel to New York to attend the summit and attend other Climate Week NYC events, including a screening of 2040 to Youth delegates. The screening will be introduced by Christiana Figueres (Lead Negotiator of the Paris Agreement) who has described 2040 as “A most compelling blend of futuristic vision and current reality.” A panel discussion with Gameau and prominent youth activists will follow the screening…
The film is now the fourth highest-grossing Australian feature documentary of all time at the domestic box office, with a cumulative box office total of $1,434,183…
2040 also continues to deliver against its ambitious impact goals with an initiative to bring the seaweed climate solution featured in the film to Australian waters. An initial fundraising target of $350,000 was met with the help of The Intrepid Foundation who contributed $175,000 in matched funding and recently committed a further $125,000 to the next phase of the project. The money raised will allow the Climate Foundation and the University of Tasmania to deploy Australia’s first regenerative marine permaculture test platform with the goal of restoring degraded giant kelp forests in Storm Bay, Tasmania. More information about the project can be found via The Intrepid Foundation website (LINK)…
https://cinema.heavymag.com.au/2040-to-screen-to-united-nations/
WhatsYour2040.com:
SCHOOLS GET INVOLVED
We have partnered with the curriculum experts at Cool Australia to build a comprehensive package of units of work for upper primary and secondary.
These free lesson plans are learning recipes for teachers that utilise short clips from the film to support classroom learning, providing step-by-step instructions, student workshops and engaging content. The first release of lesson plans are now available, with more to come!
Sign up to our Schools Mailing list to receive more info about the free curriculum resources and other opportunities for schools!…
We are delighted to announce that schools can now order the Schools Version of the 2040 DVD!
This Schools version of the 2040 DVD is for Australian primary and secondary schools that wish to utilise the film as a learning tool or host free on-site screenings for the school community. The lessons and an accompanying media library are available via the Cool Australia website…
LATEST NEWS includes articles at SMH, Guardian, U.N. plus –
Investors turn up the heat on companies over climate change
Investors managing assets worth $35 trillion are sending a message to governments and companies: Do more to fight climate change. -CNN Business
OUR ACTION PARTNERS includes Greenpeace, Qantas, AYCC, etc…
https://whatsyour2040.com/
30
But then
“FT: US Companies are Ignoring Climate Change”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/07/ft-us-companies-are-ignoring-climate-change/
20
A good article on ‘The Climate Cult’ available at https://papundits.wordpress.com/2019/10/03/the-climate-cult/
60
As long as NOTHING continues to happen….
The AGW cult will continue to sprout its doomsday rhetoric.
50
Ita says ABC has to incorporate more!!!
intro: PONDEROUS ABC VOICE (PRESUMBALY KARVELAS): IS THIS THE SOUND OF CLIMATE ANXIETY? PLAYS GRETA/UN.
Melb Uni Prof, of course, contradicts the PM, says she wishes it was “needless anxiety”, but the children know better.
AUDIO: 7min41sec: 25 Sept: ABC RN Drive: How to help a child with eco-anxiety
Presented by Patricia Karvelas
The Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said the climate change movement has caused “needless anxiety” in children.
It’s something most adults have to grapple with: how to keep informed without becoming overwhelmed?
And what’s the best way to help children who are experiencing these fears?
Guest:
Professor Anne Samson, developmental psychologist, University of Melbourne
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/how-to-help-a-child-with-eco-anxiety/11548474
8 Oct: ABC: I’m an Extinction Rebellion protester and I’ll be disrupting your work commute. Here’s why
By Chloe Adams
(Chloe Adams is a climate change protester and journalist)
You wouldn’t know for instance, that I am haunted by one image: the moment my children are old enough to understand the gravity of the climate crisis, and they look me in the eye and ask, “but what did you do Mummy?”…
The facts are quite literally a tap of a keyboard away from our discovery.
Indeed, they are splashed across the news each night.
The “fires” in sub-tropical Queensland and high-altitude rainforests of NSW.
The “drought” across eastern Australia. Loss of species so dramatic scientists are calling it Earth’s sixth mass extinction…
Denial has become our greatest defence. But will it help our children?
I want to tell you that after much soul-searching, and endless cycling between fear, anxiety and denial (“surely our leaders will do something?”), I have come to see that my inaction is an act of betrayal committed against the people I love most in the world, my own children.
And so, I rebel. I lose sleep at night, wrestling with the discomfort of what I am doing. Will I lose friends? Will people hate me? Will it even work?…
Some of the greatest minds in the climate and environmental space — Sir David Attenborough and Tim Flannery among them — have spoken out in support of non-violent civil disobedience (or in other words, disrupting business as usual to force a public conversation)…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-08/i-am-an-extinction-rebellion-protester-and-this-is-why/11561182
here’s Chloe the journo at SMH:
29 Jan: SMH: As parents, how do we tell kids ‘the truth’ about our world?
By Chloe Adams
Recently, my family and I were invited to an apocalypse party. Fun right? I love dress-ups. I love drinking beer in the sunshine with my mates. And who could argue with the chosen theme after the year 2018?
There was just one problem: my five-year-old.
As the son of two journalists, he can be relied upon to ask all the questions you don’t want to answer. At three, he was asking how babies were made, and now, at five, he can tell you more about hydrothermal vents and rare animals of the Amazon rainforest than you may ever wish to know.
There was no way we were going to that party without explaining what the word apocalypse meant, which of course would open a Pandora’s box of other questions…
It began with despair as Trump was ushered into the White House. The daily news continued to inform and support the awful truth my anxiety told me the future held. Inaudible to the outside world, a low hum of barely-repressed panic sounded in me. And I wasn’t alone. Over time, I realised there were others inhabited by similar, crippling feelings.
Friends and acquaintances, who said such things as:
“I literally wake up every morning and check my phone wondering if there will be an alert saying a nuclear bomb was detonated.”
“We have industrial quantities of dried carbs and tinned food in our pantry at the moment.”
“I feel like world news is directly affecting my mental health.”
“I looked into buying gold and I started reading prepper material.”
“I just wish I knew whether to make contributions into my super.”
These words were uttered by sane human beings…
I still think climate change poses a catastrophic threat to life as we know it…
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/despite-the-chaos-it-is-still-possible-to-be-an-optimistic-parent-20190124-p50tc9.html
40
“developmental psychologist”
LOL.. wants children to develop an UNHEALTHY FEAR of a mythical anti-science meme. !!
70
“Loss of species so dramatic scientists are calling it Earth’s sixth mass extinction”
Yet no-one can name one other than a small island rat on a hurricane prone island.
Yep, its all so DRAMATIC.. as in PLAY ACTING in a fantasy world!!!
60
what ABC and Chloe didn’t disclose:
LinkedIn: Chloe Adams, Melbourne
Senior Producer
Australian Broadcasting Corporation
2008 – 2011·3 years
https://au.linkedin.com/in/chloe-adams-051b4b18
Chloe also worked for World Vision Australia for 3 years.
more eco-anxiety at theirABC:
8 Sept: ABC: When climate distress becomes too much, the philosophy of eternalism can provide perspective
RN By Alice Moldovan for ABC Religion and Ethics
The first time Heidi Edmonds felt this type of anxiety creep up, she became teary and had to go into the bathroom for a cry.
“I was looking at my nieces … and worrying about their future,” she says, “not feeling like everything was going to be OK.”
Dr Edmonds — who holds a PhD from Griffith University’s Australian Rivers Institute — is a co-founder of Australian Parents for Climate Action, a national volunteer campaign group.
She has two young daughters and like many young parents, manages sleep deprivation and parenting stress with all of her other responsibilities at work and with friends.
Over the last year she’s noticed another kind of pressure weighing on her — climate anxiety…
Ros Knight, the president of the country’s peak body for psychologists, the Australian Psychological Society, says many Australians report some level of concern about climate change.
She points to a 2012 study that found 20 per cent of those surveyed felt climate-related distress at times.
“It’s hard to be specific about exact numbers for climate anxiety with a capital ‘A’,” she says. “We would call it climate change distress — we wouldn’t necessarily label it one particular response.”…
(Kristie Miller, the joint director of the Centre for Time at Sydney University) explains that eternalism can be a comfort when it comes to grief.
“It’s true, of course, that your life comes to an end — in the sense that there will be later times when you don’t exist,” she says.
But from an eternalist perspective, she says, “all of your life is still out there in space time, so all the things that you did still exist. And some people find that quite consoling.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-08/how-eternalism-can-help-with-climate-change-distress-and-anxiety/11477560
30
I happened to be in Ultimo this week, and watched as a gaggle of Australian Bolshevik Collective employees ( I wouldnt say workers ) waddled past with beards, determined looks and most importantly the “compulsory” rainbow coloured ID lanyards…( well it is Sydney …)
Strong is the APS and PC in this one….yes…
( if Yoda were to comment).
The point is, we may comment on how lame and kinda pathetic the UNBC…er….oh never mind….you get the idea…..
Nkw transpose that to the Bureau Of Meaningless…..
30
Ita wants to incorporate more of this?
16 Mar: ABC: The fear of climate change is transforming young identities
The Conversation By Blanche Verlie
(Blanche Verlie is an associate lecturer at RMIT University. This article originally appeared on The Conversation)
My research investigates how young people’s sense of self, identity, and existence is being fundamentally altered by climate change.
‘Existential whiplash’
Striking children are experiencing “existential whiplash”, caught between two forces. One is a dominant culture driven by fossil fuel consumption that emphasises individual success, encapsulated by Resources Minister Matt Canavan’s remarks that striking students will never get a “real job”…
On the other hand is the mounting evidence that climate change will make parts of the planet inhospitable to human (and other) life, and fundamentally change our way of life in the future.
Children are up to date with the facts: The Earth is currently experiencing its sixth mass extinction; Australia has just had its hottest summer on record; and experts warn we have just 11 years left to ensure we avoid the misery of exceeding 1.5 degrees of planetary warming…
But as climatic changes intensify and interrupt our business-as-usual lifestyles, many more Australians are likely to experience the climate trauma that school strikers are grappling with…
Confronting the realities of climate change can lead to overwhelming anxiety and grief, and of course, for those of us in high carbon societies, guilt. This can be extremely uncomfortable…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-16/student-rally-against-climate-change-transform-youth-role/10903890
30
or more of this? give thanks the CAGW mob dropped ‘solastalgia’, though:
5 Oct 2018: ABC: Climate change leading to ‘solastalgia’, the feeling you get when your home is wrecked
By Richard Yin
(Dr Richard Yin is a Perth GP and a member of Doctors for the Environment Australia)
Place is important to all of us. It speaks to our identity, our community, our mortality and our destiny argues, social researcher and author Hugh Mackay…
In 2004, in response to the changing landscape of the Upper Hunter Valley from open-cut coal mining, power station pollution and prolonged drought, Glenn Albrecht, an ecological philosopher and professor of sustainability at Murdoch University, went on to describe an unrecognised form of psychological distress in residents that he called solastalgia…
Symptoms included feelings of grief, trauma, nostalgia, alienation, depression, anxiety and loss…
The word has also entered the public arena with the likes of Australian pop artist Missy Higgins, using it to name her recent new album…
Children carry burden of climate change
More recently there has been a focus on the mental health impacts of climate change on children.
Children represent a uniquely vulnerable group and currently those under the age of five carry 88 per cent of the burden of disease from climate change impacts…
Direct psychological impacts caused primarily through extreme weather events are easy to appreciate and can be understood to potentially predispose to adverse future adult mental health outcomes.
But there is a growing body of research for an indirect mental health impact, showing that older children and youths in both developing and developed countries have a higher level of interest and concern about climate change than adults…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/climate-change-drought-flood-fire-solastalgia-sixth-sense/10337976
40
Pat
” have a higher level of interest and concern about climate change than adults…”
If you cherry pick the ages you can probably say the same about sex
20
Its just proof that BS can influence people…
The biggest problem is that as the govt has mandated a huge lie as part of its syllabus, to go against it is a form of modern heresy *because* it goes against the mainstream…which terrifies the stupid and cowardly in our society…..
If you think about it, Christianity has been trashed by gender and 18C laws, so now all that is left ( by design) is the eco religion.
Clever isnt it?
I say being i on….live to trash it….i cop a huge ammount of flak but just keep shredding it.
I have plenty of righteous battle scars….
40
Yes the left is deliberately attempting to crash and burn our economy. They simply hate the West. Make no mistake about it. We have a covert revolution on our hands. The military and guns are not involved, not yet at least. The end result though can be just as destructive to our economy and society, if not worse. The trouble is most people don’t recognise this for various reasons. The government certainly is sometimes asleep over it and at other times they are aiding the left, whether they know it or not. So yes let the left bring it on. We need to wake up everyone and one way to do it is to let the coal fired power stations be closed down and wait for the wake up call to eventuate. Better to get it over and done with sooner than later. Dragging it on only delays the re-brith of this nation with a sensible government.
30
Maybe we need to join the Eco evangelists and encourage them to go harder.
How about pressuring governments to have a coal fired free weekend once a month as a show of virtue.
We need to accelerate the awareness.
KK
40
For best effect, it needs to be on a school day, a normal working day.
Tony.
30
A week I reckon, renewables only – No inertia support.
10
Wait and see what the coming summer brings.
00
That has crossed my mind. Sometimes I wonder if we would be better off with Shorten being elected. It would certainly speed up the decay of our once great nation and very likely get us moving in the right direction after the next election.
10
Had Labor been elected then SOGI would have been rolled out nationwide, the UN Global Compact on Migration would have been signed, the attack on the finances of retirees would have been implemented, coal exports would have been embargoed, the GHG emissions target would have escalated, electric vehicles would have been mandated and the internal combustion engine criminalised and that’s just a subset of the lunacy the ignoramuses had in mind for us.
Remember these are the idiots who don’t have any idea of the detail or the consequences of their programs. Shorten thinks an EV will charge up in five minutes, Plibersek thinks carbon dioxide constitutes fifty percent of the atmosphere; they’ve never studied the subjects in any depth whatsoever and they’re intent on cementing their ignorance in legislation for our benefit.
That’s not to suggest for a moment that anybody in the elected government has a better grip on reality but the current mob may be educable whereas Labor certainly isn’t, well not yet –time will tell.
10
‘ … let the coal fired power stations be closed down and wait for the wake up call to eventuate.’
That won’t happen because the tide has turned at a federal level, so now its up to the states to decide their energy mix.
10
Tide has turned? You are dreaming. Qld has brought forward the closure of one of its coal fired power station. Perhaps in time the tide will turn but only after the right people start making some noise. The silent majority is still silent.
20
With only Nine Labor MPs at federal level in the last election, One Nation inroads, and our discontent I cant see Labor winning next year. I wouldn’t be worried at this point, as they wont be in a position to shut down a tea room.
30
Morrison and Taylor will underwrite the replacement of old coal fired power stations with new Hele, like for like. The states have to nominate their energy mix and face the people, democracy works slowly.
00
The eco religion has the trappings of old, Millenarianism and Revelations, its a major cultural meme underpinning this evolutionary movement.
01
not as hot as yesterday south of Brisbane (30C max at my place), so don’t know what this refers to, but it’s behind a paywall:
Hottest October day since records began
Northern Star – 1 hour ago
Meteorologist Rosemary Barr from the Bureau of Meteorology said while these temperatures were the highest recorded at those stations, they had only been in …
there have been lots of wild predictions:
7 Oct: Daily Mail: Summer’s here! Heat vortex sends temperatures soaring to 40C TOMORROW as scorching weather sweeps east coast
•Parts of northern NSW saw temperatures more than 10 degrees above average
•Brisbane could break record for the hottest October day in 14 years on Tuesday
•Trough brought north-westerly winds over the regions and built the heat
By Zoe Zaczek For Daily Mail Australia and Australian Associated Press
A 40C heatwave has swept across Australia’s east coast, bringing temperatures more than 10 degrees above the October average…
The Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Kimba Wong says temperatures around the state are set to soar 10 to 12 degrees above the average.
‘In Brisbane 36 degrees is the current forecast for Tuesday, and that will be the warmest October day since 2005 if it comes up,’ she told AAP…
Mr Morris said Sunday’s heat in parts of the state was well-above the October average, with one town breaking a century-long record…
‘Sunday the 6th was the hottest October day in 100 years in Forbes.’
‘Parkes got a 36.7C day which was about 13 degrees above average, it also came close to their record which was 36.8C in 2014.
‘Bourke got to 40.1C, which is 10 degrees above the October average.’…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7544641/Temperatures-soar-40C-heatwave-sweeps-east-coast.html
had to expand this story to get this excerpt:
7 Oct: Yahoo: Australia’s east coast set for sweltering heat and ‘winter-like’ conditions on same day
by Yahoo & Agencies; with AAP
BoM reported Sunday marked the hottest October day on record for Orange, Forbes, Young, Temora and Bombala…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw-queensland-hot-weather-winter-conditions-victoria-092700907.html
30
3.00pm Brisbane temperature, according to google: 27C
8 Oct: Brisbane Times: Heavy fog blankets Brisbane ahead of hottest October day since 2005
by Lydia Lynch
A thick fog coating Brisbane city on Tuesday morning was set to lift on the hottest October day the river city has seen since 2005…
Brisbane was forecast to have the warmest October day in about 15 years, predicted to reach of maximum of 36 degrees…
***(Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Kimba Wong) said the hottest part of the day would be between ***3pm and 4pm.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/heavy-fog-blankets-brisbane-ahead-of-hottest-october-day-since-2005-20191008-p52yj7.html
40
Is the wonderfully accurate BOM forecast using the Homogenized temperature data.
That could explain why they always seem to be predicting hotter weather than we actually get!
70
They keep making stuff up and hope we won’t notice when it doesn’t eventuate, its an inexact science like astrology.
70
They are all rent seeking failed scientists, like the Climate Council headed by Kangaroo expert Tim Flannery and supported by a few engineers, former bureaucrats, an industrial chemist. Meanwhile the 500+ professional meteorologists push out nonsense like this as being accurate to a tiny fraction of a degree, despite the massive technological changes in the late 1980s which all point to the increase being instrumental, not real. Especially in Australia whose records dominate half the planet for half the last century. If those records are being homogenized, it is all manufactured presumably by a few activists while the bulk of the meteorologists just keep silent to keep their jobs.
The BOM is a disgrace to science like the CSIRO. And the IPCC remains a UN political body, an ‘intergovernmental panel’ of opportunist multinational politicians, not scientists at all. All for the greater glory of the perpetually money and power hungry socialist and self justifying bureaucratic machines which are the UN and EU. As former Prime Minister Tony Abbott said and it cost him his job as Prime Minister, even his membership of parliament and possibly his entire career, Climate Change is Crap. Brave man.
70
Looking ahead to the Royal Commission, what are we going to do with the bulk of the meteorologists who just keep silent to keep their jobs?
30
And whether we need a Bureau of Meteorology at all. Like the ABC, a radio station from the 1930s which has metastasized, the SBS, Al Grassby’s idea to have Italian on the radio and TV in the 1970s, it has outlived its usefulness. Everything is automated and satellites do a far better job than ground stations, except for rainfall. (I wonder if they homogenize rainfall too and why?).
So close them all. ABC/SBS/BOM/CSIRO. The privitization of CSL was one of the best transitions ever as the CSL is commercial, profitable and not on the public purse. The ABC though is forcing up the price of everyone’s television while providing free services to their private supporters. As for the CSIRO, they had a world conference on Ocean acidification when no ocean is acid. And 350 full time people trying to ‘prove’ man made Climate Change in Australia and failed.
My question here, with respect to the dodgy measurements and all the fiddling and the clear uncertainties in temperature during the technological changes of the 1980s is where is this Climate Change? Where is there a crisis proven? Are we in a crisis or are we waiting for one? If so, what is it?
If the ‘crisis’ has been going on for 120 years, 31 since it was announced by James Hansen of the Rocket Propulsion Centre which calls itself NASA, where is it? How can there be an sudden extinction if there is no evidence of a problem? Has someone seen a giant asteroid heading to Earth? Has some city been inundated in the last century? Has there been an unusually long or inexplicable drought? Where on Earth, literally is there a novel problem which could be labelled man made Climate Change.
Or is it a fr*ud?
20
I remember a great TV interview with a man in a protest about three years ago in Melbourne. The interviewer asked the man what he was protesting about and he said he didn’t know, he was just there for the protest.
Some great outfits though in the Climate Extinction. Bees. Clowns. Crazy fashion competitions. Groups of people dressed identically in their protest outfits. Real theatre by people you would have to think are unemployed. Not a real protester to be seen and the point of their protest was to disrupt people going about their business, people who actually have jobs to do which need to be done.
These were protests for the sake of protest. Protests with feeling, emotion, rewards and something to do. Absolutely disconnected from the real world and with the explicit aim of making others miserable. Councils would fine a driver who disrupted traffic, without a second’s thought. There should be substantial fines for people parking.
Gluing yourself to impede traffic or cars or people $250
Erecting a structure on a main road $500 + the cost of removal and confiscation. Say a mobile crane at $5000 an hour.
Causing a nuisance $250. Per instance.
Blocking pedestrian traffic $125
Graffiti on public buildings $500+ the cost of cleaning. Say 1,000 litres of fake blood.
and issue tickets. And 1 point off your driver’s licence as a dangerous nuisance to drivers.
Accept credit/debit cards.
20
CHRIS BARRIE’S CRAZY ALARMISM: CAN WE HAVE A CONVERSATION?
Herald Sun – Andrew Bolt – 8 Oct 2019
Misha Ketchell, editor of the taxpayer-supported Conversation, has banned sceptics from the site. So expect no corrections to the bizarre ravings of retired Admiral Chris Barrie that Ketchell has now chosen to publish instead…
8 Oct: TheConversation: Climate change poses a ‘direct threat’ to Australia’s national security. It must be a political priority
by Chris Barrie, Honorary Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University
Disclosure statement: Chris Barrie is affiliated with the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change
This is part of a new series looking at the national security challenges facing Australia, how our leaders are responding to them through legislation and how these measures are impacting society. Read the rest of the series here.
It is evident from Australia’s increasingly severe droughts and record-breaking heatwaves that time is running out to take action on climate change.
Yet, despite persistent calls from eminent scientists to reduce global dependence on fossil fuels, a call to action has gone unanswered by our political leaders.
And we aren’t just facing an environmental threat alone in Australia – there are significant implications for our national security and defence capabilities that we haven’t fully reckoned with either…
TWEET: Climate Council
Defence chief Angus Campbell sounds climate warning. The speech leaves “the government open to criticism its lukewarm approach to combatting climate change is becoming a national security issue.” @AngusGrigg @FinancialReview @auspol Link AFR
14 Jul 2019…
http://theconversation.com/climate-change-poses-a-direct-threat-to-australias-national-security-it-must-be-a-political-priority-123264
ANU Climate Change Institute: Admiral (Ret) Chris Barrie
Adjunct Professor Strategic and Defence Studies Centre
Chris Barrie retired in 2002 after 42 years in the RAN, ending in four years of service as the Chief of the Defence Force(CDF). Since then he has worked on strategic leadership issues as consultant, teacher and mentor at Oxford University, the National Defense University in Washington DC, and at the Australian National University.
At ANU Chris is Chair of the London Foundation, and a Director in the Tuckwell Foundation…
He became very concerned about climate change matters in 2006 after which he taken advocacy action to raise awareness of the potential costs of inaction. In 2015 he was an author of a Report for the Climate Council on “Climate Change, Security and the ADF”. The launch of this report preceded a conference on the topic which he co-chaired with Professor Will Steffen.
Chris is also a member of the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change (GMACCC).
https://climate.anu.edu.au/admiral-ret-chris-barrie
20
Malcolm Turnbull blames Liberal climate change denialists for high power bills
The Australian – 20 hours ago
Turnbull rubbishes govt’s climate policy
Sky News – 8 Oct 2019
why bother mentioning Abbott, Michelle? it’s all Malcolm in Grattan’s eyes:
8 Oct: TheConversation: Malcolm Turnbull delivers the unpalatable truth to Scott Morrison on climate and energy
by Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull are out of parliament – for which Scott Morrison is much thankful – but their passions are unabated. Each has let fly in interviews with The Australian’s Troy Bramston to mark the anniversary…
Turnbull’s was the more pertinent and, from where the government stands, pointed interview because it fed very directly into central issues of the moment, climate change and energy policy.
“The Liberal Party has just proved itself incapable of dealing with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in any sort of systematic way,” Turnbull said.
“The consequence … is without question that we are paying higher prices for electricity and having higher emissions.”
He knows what he’s talking about…
Firstly, we don’t have a satisfactory energy policy: emissions are rising; power prices are too high; investment is being discouraged. An analysis released by the Grattan Institute this week was damning about how federal government policies were discouraging investment including by “bashing big companies” (the so-called “big stick” legislation, allowing for divestment when an energy company is recalcitrant, is still before parliament).
Secondly, climate change is again resonating strongly in the community…
Morrison is a good marketing man. But the test of his prime ministership will be whether he can use his marketing skills to sell policies that the country needs, rather just what he thinks will go over easily with his constituency…
https://theconversation.com/malcolm-turnbull-delivers-the-unpalatable-truth-to-scott-morrison-on-climate-and-energy-124889
AUDIO: 7min26sec: 8 Oct: 2GB: Ben Fordham: ‘He sold us a pup’: Mark Latham slams Malcolm Turnbull
Mark Latham says Malcolm Turnbull is to blame for a poor energy policy, after the former prime minister hit out at the party he once led.
Mr Turnbull has called the Liberal Party “incapable” of dealing with carbon emissions which have led to higher power prices…
Latham: “Turnbull is one of the culprits who said that we can only do something about climate change if we went down the path of renewables.
“Turnbull gave us the worst of both worlds, a system of renewables that doesn’t provide power and keep the lights on 24 hours a day but the extra back up costs are still needing dispatchable baseload.
“He sold us a pup with renewables.”
https://www.2gb.com/he-sold-us-a-pup-mark-latham-slams-malcolm-turnbull/
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7min to 16min: Geraldine Doogue – eco-anxiety; Chris Barrie – young taking anti-depressants over CAGW etc.
20 Sept: ABC The Drum: Friday September 20
AUDIO: Duration: 58min 2sec
Host: Ellen Fanning
Panel: Michael Bachelard (Age/SMH), Geraldine Doogue, Mekala Shanker(?), Admiral Chris Barrie.
Guest: Natalie Sambhi
The panel discusses the global climate strikes, the 20th anniversary of East Timor’s liberation, and Scott Morrison’s trip to Washington.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-20/the-drum-friday-september-20/11534662
read all – another failure:
7 Oct: EurActiv: EU ministers fudge 2030 climate target lines
By Sam Morgan
Environment ministers agreed on Friday (4 October) to “update” the EU’s current emission reduction pledge next year but fell short of saying by how much. Ten countries blocked attempts by the others to commit outright to an increase there and then.
At an environment council meeting in Luxembourg, the EU’s 28 national delegates gave their blessing to a joint position ahead of the UN’s annual climate conference in December…
Ten countries – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Malta, Poland and Romania – blocked efforts to include more explicit language…
“A long-awaited decision to massively scale up EU emission cuts has been delayed yet again at a time when millions of people take to the street to protest against government inaction,” said Wendel Trio, head of environmental group CAN Europe…
https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/eu-ministers-fudge-2030-climate-target-lines/
20
None of this would matter except that the world is fixated on changes of a fraction of a degree, even 0.004C for one hottest year and that this tiny amount is both dangerous and indicates disaster to come. Except that after 120 years of steady CO2 and Climate Change, nothing has changed. Anywhere.
Given data like this, it is debatable whether even this +1C is true in Australia and thus half the planet and it is certainly not significant, based on 120 years of evidence, sea rises, droughts, floods and normal change. The good Australian data from 1860 to 1910 might be more reliable than the modern data, but it is not to be included in the official world record. Despite the fact that there was no technological change in 1910, just a bureaucratic one. If truth be told, there may be no Global Warming at all in the bottom half of the planet. It’s all cherry picking, adjustment, instrument change and variable secret homogenization.
So Miss Greta can weave her Grim fairy tale at the UN, blaming the world for a disaster which is not true, not likely in a lifetime or the last few lifetimes and even absurd. A fantasy of bankers and socialists and failed pretend scientists like Gore and Flannery and Mann and Hansen. After, what is a jet propulsion laboratory doing pronouncing on the weather? Or a dead kangaroo student. Or a school football captain who made it to Vice President? Or a failed physicist who sought fame and fortune with secret analysis from a single hoop pine?
My only real hope is that they have given up on debate, given up on even pretending there is any logic, and science and banned all deniers from even having a voice in their private extinction and end of the world. I would just like to know when and where this extinction was going to happen, but that would be denial.
60
And why do people believe that if nothing has changed for decades, why disaster is imminent? It’s not as if anything is getting worse. Not hurricanes, not sea levels, not the number of Polar Bears? Where exactly is this human extinction from Climate Change. Surely we would have seen some evidence by now? Where is the evidence, apart from the 400 million Indians who were going to die from thirst by 2035 as announced so dramatically by the all knowing IPCC. That was a typographical error. It seems they meant 400 million Indians were going to be dead from thirst in 2350. Does no one remember the endless prophecies since 1988 of imminent doom?
It’s a Climate Cult. Fact free. Science free. All emotion and cash and now dressing up and protesting nothing at all. Not Hong Kong, not Syria, not Boko Haram, not Iran or North Korea, not the endless terrible war and poverty in Ukraine, but vegetarians protesting Climate Change and proscuitto. While in Melbourne the councils have become as dysfunctional as the roads they control. How self indulgent and utterly wasteful and uncaring Western society has become.
51
8 Oct: UK Times: Climate objections ignored as Drax turbines get green light
by Ben Webster
The government has given the green light to a big gas power plant, overruling a recommendation by planning inspectors that it should be refused because of its contribution to climate change.
Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, gave Drax permission to build up to four gas turbines with a combined capacity of 3.6 gigawatts at its site near Selby in North Yorkshire.
In July the Planning Inspectorate said the turbines would “undermine the government’s commitment . . . to cut greenhouse gas emissions”. It noted that several other gas power plants had been approved and electricity supplies could already be maintained.
The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) said the project would be “carbon capture ready”. However, the government has previously cancelled plans to install carbon capture equipment on the grounds of expense…
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/climate-objections-ignored-as-drax-turbines-get-green-light-h57kq9jrq
7 Oct: EurActiv: Will Germany block EIB plans to ditch natural gas?
By Alicia Prager; translated by Daniel Eck
The European Investment Bank wants to purge its loan books of fossil fuels, including natural gas, by 2020. Although the Bank’s final decision is expected to be delivered on 15 October, resistance, especially from Germany, is brewing. EURACTIV Germany reports
Germany’s backslide on climate ambition, fully exposed by its recent tweaking of a landmark climate package, is also starting to affect EIB policy..
Although consensus is typically sought in such cases, a double majority would be sufficient to push through the change. Some countries have a bigger say depending on their economic clout though. Germany is one of the most important shareholders with a capital share of just over 16% in the Bank.
But it currently looks as if Germany could block the EIB’s decision on natural gas…
The Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy (BMWi), which is in favour of continuing investments in gas, is set to get its way. The finance ministry (BMF) also appears to support this position…
Club of Rome: No backsliding on ambitious climate plans
NGOs, companies and scientific institutes now want to build up pressure.
In an open letter, more than 60 NGOs called on the EIB to stand behind the proposal to stop promoting fossil fuels. The European Commission, however, is opposed to this.
These NGOs are now being supported by the Club of Rome, which has also sent an open letter to the EIB. So far, the letter has attracted signatures from investors, companies and researchers – including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
“I am inspired by the EIB’s efforts to align its lending policy with the Paris Climate Agreement and the EU’s 2050 target. But I am very disappointed to hear that some member states and the European Commission are trying to weaken the EIB’s proposal,” said Club of Rome President Sandrine Dixson-Declève.
The draft has “already sent an important signal to financial markets and institutions around the world and heralds a change of direction in global financial flows”, the letter wrote…
“Capital is always looking for the best landlord. The big question is how to identify him,” said Jan-Menko Grummer, a partner at Ernst & Young…
But currently, several member states seem to be delaying the implementation of such a taxonomy, said Club of Rome President Sandrine Dixson-Declève in an interview with EURACTIV…
https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-strategy-2050/news/germany-shuns-eu-letter-calling-for-higher-climate-goals/
30
7 Oct: NYT: Energy Transition? Not So Fast, One Expert Says
One of Britain’s foremost authorities on energy predicts the transition from fossil fuels will take longer and be more expensive than people hope.
By Stanley Reed
David Howell, whose career in British politics dates to the 1960s, has participated in a lot of energy history.
When he served as Margaret Thatcher’s secretary of state for energy from 1979 to 1981, Britain’s North Sea was just making its presence felt on world oil markets…
Now 83, and a member of the House of Lords, Britain’s upper chamber, Lord Howell, who also advises energy companies, retains a strong interest in everything from nuclear power to OPEC.
In 2016, he published a book on the energy transition away from fossil fuels called “Empires in Collision: The Green versus Black Struggle for Our Energy Future.”…The conversation has been edited.
Q: From your perspective, is an energy transition underway that stands out from other eras?
A: Yes, but it is going to be much slower and much more expensive than people realize. The sorts of targets that have been set by the Paris Agreement, let alone the more extreme proposals for cutting to zero emissions by 2050, are going to be unbelievably disruptive and expensive.
Industrialists, energy companies and global experts say that by 2050 we will still be relying on hydrocarbons for at least 70 percent of the world’s energy (compared with an estimated 85 percent in 2018).
The green world says “Oh no!” We are going to make oil history, and we are going to have no hydrocarbon emissions by 2050. These are two absolutely contradictory views. They can’t both be right.
I have argued all along that the only possibility for progress is for the two energy empires of hydrocarbons and greens to work together.
Markets will help and technology will help, but if you try to predict the technology or define the markets, no progress will be made…
Q: How serious do you think the pressures from environmentalists, politicians, young people and so on are for the oil industry?
A: There are very strong pressures and a great idealistic view that catastrophe lies ahead on climate unless we do certain things. The focus of what should be done is very blurred. In reality, what we do in the U.K. in our little 1 percent of world emissions — or even what Europe does — is marginal compared to the big emitters’ activities. The big emitters are obviously China, India, Russia and the United States.
If there are going to be protests, they should be against the policies of those four countries. The protests we have had — like blocking the streets of London — are, I am afraid, completely pointless. And the protest in the financial markets of trying to disinvest in energy companies is also pretty badly targeted because most oil production is in the hands of national oil companies. They are not affected by attempts to strand assets and disinvest and so on.
Q: Have opportunities to deal with climate change been missed?
A: I was energy secretary a long time ago in the 1980s. At that time, very few people talked about carbon emissions at all. If you remember, at that time the mood among scientists was that there was going to be global freezing, not global warming. The main concern was with the reliability of oil supplies, which is why we made big efforts to emulate the French and go to nuclear electricity supply. Our efforts failed, but that is another story.
There was no effort then to respond to a problem that wasn’t foreseen. It has grown in the last 20 years. I don’t want to be too gloomy and say it is too late to do anything, but it is too late to unscramble the last 150 years of industrial technology.
Q: Are governments taking the right steps to encourage a transition to low-carbon energy?
A: I do think that we have to be realistic, and realism dictates that hydrocarbons will have a major place in the global economy for the next 100 years. If we were really serious about climate change, we would be going all out to produce the technologies that would allow countries like China and India and other big emitters to produce cheap, reliable energy in a clean low-emissions form.
Q: What should the governments in places like China and India be encouraging?
A: Although coal may be in decline, it is going to have a major role in cheap energy production in both China and India. The coal age is still with us — not in Western Europe, but in Asia and, indeed, Africa. So the concentration should be how do we have cleaner coal production from supercritical boilers and cheap carbon capture and storage. That is where the technology should he going…
Q: How important has been the impact of production of oil and gas from shale rock?
A: It is central to the whole evolution of oil markets. No one foresaw that America would turn around from being the biggest importer to approaching being a net exporter of oil and gas. That is an extraordinary turnaround. And furthermore, there is considerable flexibility in response to price in the American shale industry. So it can switch on and switch off at speeds which completely undermine the whole OPEC role.
So OPEC really has lost its power. It has tried to maintain it by agreements with Russia, which are made to try to control the oil price market, but I am not sure that they are going to succeed. I think shale has altered the entire pattern of world oil. I think American shale oil, which is plentiful and now relatively easy to extract, has changed everything…
I am not sure even now that people appreciate the size of the difference.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/07/business/energy-environment/energy-transition-not-so-fast-one-expert-says.html
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Climate activists deny hundreds of millions dead under socialism.
50
Many thanks to Ken Stewart and Bill Johnston for their insights into the processes of recording weather details and using the accumulated information as a guide for use by the community.
As many have pointed out, weather is a very localised thing and the “records” kept have very little meaning for anywhere else, except in the most general terms.
While there’s a lot of science behind the understanding of the weather it’s important to state quite categorically that weather itself does not constitute a situation that can be called “science”.
Where no two measurements of temperature and pressure will be the same for any given location the only meaningful thing approaching “science” is the “range” of measurements for any site.
The ultimate deceit is to link weather data to atmospheric CO2 and then cry “Extinction”.
What’s less obvious is that every time someone is publicly heard crying that out, a politician somewhere on the Planet is rubbing his hands in glee. Another reinforcement of the CO2 meme and another cash grab on the way.
A laba politician on TV yesterday was seen saying that the failure to introduce a NEG has caused the high electricity prices we have now.
This of course being a complete reversal of fact.
I want a rational world free from slavery and manipulation.
KK
70
followup to comment #32 and reply #32.1 – DM & Brisbane Times BoM’s forecast for Brisbane Tuesday 8 Oct of 36C.
just heard Ray Hadley/2GB say Brisbane didn’t get as hot as forecast yesterday – a top of 30C. (I noted 30C south of Brisbane).
I don’t even see 30C below. no daily Max Temp shown at time of posting, just a low of 20.5C.
highs of 26.4C shown for 9am & 27.5C listed for 3pm.
BoM: Brisbane, Queensland
8 October 2019
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW4019.latest.shtml
news.com.au carried the forecast too:
8 Sept: news.com.au: Scorching weather to hit NSW and Queensland but a return to “winter-like conditions” in the south
The mercury is set to soar to blistering 15-year highs in eastern Australia, turning an entire state dark purple on weather forecast maps.
by Benedict Brook
Western suburbs of Brisbane are expected to hit 40C on Monday and Tuesday, while 36C is a possibility in the CBD. Those temperatures are far above the average and could lead Brisbane to have its warmest October day for almost 15 years…
As a result, Brisbane’s CBD will reach 34C on Monday and 36C on Tuesday.
Ipswich is likely to experience two days of more than 40C to start the week — that’s around 10 degrees above the October average…
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/scorching-weather-to-hit-nsw-and-queensland-but-a-return-to-winterlike-conditions-in-the-south/news-story/1e86158bd16f061b4ae930f21ba62800
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so did the MSM bother to report BoM’s colossal failure to predict the temp one day in advance? not at all, it seems.
this page is a garbled mess, with a silent 1-min video of a house burning down, but managed to capture the text, which includes the following, but no mention of yesterday’s Brisbane temps:
9 Oct: news.com.au: Cooler weather to ease fire threat, with rain forecast for end of week
After a horror day of high temperatures and raging fires, cooler conditions will ease the bushfire threat across the state’s southeast slightly today. But firefighters are now monitoring a fire in the Scenic Rim, with residents warned to stay informed.
by Liza Kapelle, Cloe Read, Courier Mail
Several fires in the Lockyer Valley, where the temperature yesterday reached 41C, were downgraded overnight but firefighters are this monitoring one near Beaudesert…
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Senior Meteorologist Vince Rowlands said the fire danger in the southeast corner will drop from severe to very high on Wednesday as a cooler trough starts to push through…
https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/cooler-weather-to-ease-fire-threat-with-rain-forecast-for-end-of-week/news-story/237de0bf463ac7460f847360e8a65b61
likewise, Brisbane Times simply ignores yesterday’s temp:
8 Oct 8.56pm: BrisbaneTimes: Wet weather to douse steamy south-east corner
By Lydia Lynch
Brisbane’s top temperatures were set to nosedive up to 9 degrees in 24 hours as a cool front pushes up from the south of the state.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Vince Rowlands said after a hot start to the week, most of the south-east corner would be cooling down from Wednesday, ahead of a rainy weekend.
“There is some rain on the way, certainly cooler temperatures, basically from tomorrow we’ll see those southerly winds start to push through the southern parts of Queensland…
Fires sprang up on Monday in sweltering conditions, forcing residents of Thornton, about 60 kilometres south-west of Ipswich, to flee their homes…
Brisbane was expecting highs of 27 degrees and lows of 18 degrees on Wednesday before dropping to lows of 15 degrees and highs of 24 on Thursday and Friday…
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/wet-weather-to-douse-steamy-south-east-corner-20191008-p52ypj.html
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as for:
“Ipswich is likely to experience two days of more than 40C to start the week”
I can’t find the BoM page to show yesterday’s Min/Max temps, but did find the following. there is a Weatherzone temp timelapse video, but I don’t see Ipswich go above 32C. don’t know if Kierra Smith (near top of replies) is referring to Ipswich or somewhere else, as the replies cover various locations:
Facebook: 19h ago: Higgins Storm Chasing
Ipswich has been hit by the Westerly and it made the temperature rise from 36.4 to 40.4°C in about 15mins. The Westerly will continue to move East and eventually reach Brisbane this afternoon which should lead to a spike in temperatures closer to the Coast.
Video: Weatherzone
Kierra Smith It definitely doesn’t feel that hot today though out here compared to yesterday thank goodness. Still not denying it’s hot and hiding from it!…
https://www.facebook.com/HigginsStormChasing/videos/ipswich-has-been-hit-by-the-westerly-and-it-made-the-temperature-rise-from-364-t/429270014366411/
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as for ABC:
6 Oct: ABC: Southern Queensland weather forecast to bring severe fire danger and 40-degree heatwave
By Lexy Hamilton-Smith
Updated Mon (7 Oct) at 4:19pm
A wave of dangerous severe fire weather is about to hit southern Queensland with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasting heatwave conditions as temperatures soar up to 40 degrees Celsius in parts of the state…
BOM forecaster Kimba Wong said Tuesday was flagged as the worst day for fire weather with “a big burst of heat and wind on the way”…
The bureau said conditions should ease from Wednesday with a southerly change moving up the coast.
“Temperatures should then drop by about 10 degrees, which will return thing to normal for this time of year,” Ms Wong said.
LINK: Heatwaves kill far more people than other natural disasters
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-06/qld-heatwave-forecast-with-fire-conditions/11575298
am I missing something on this BoM page ABC links to?
BoM: Heatwave Forecasts
Three-day Heatwave Assessment for Sunday, Monday & Tuesday 6-8 Oct 2019
No heatwave conditions.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/#heatwave-assessments
PIC ONLY: 6 Oct: ABC: Brisbane heatwave
Posted Sun at 4:08pm
Temperatures are expected to build, with Tuesday forecast to be especially hot and windy.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-06/sun-shimmers-across-brisbane-river-as-people-walk-along-pathway/11577758
not interested in temps or wrong forecasts:
9 Oct: ABC: Fire warnings downgraded in the Lockyer Valley after bushfire destroys Laidley home
Updated about an hour ago
Superintendent James Haig said they were still unsure how the Laidley fire started but it was pushed by very strong winds.
“We had very hot weather in that area yesterday, and dry air as well,” he said.
“Which means whenever we get these pulses of bad weather, we’re going to have this significant fire weather.”…
Gabriel Brunescu from the Bureau of Meteorology said conditions would start to ease today, but the fire danger remained very high on the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.
“Especially in the south-east, the fire danger dropped to high, winds dropped as well, and also the temperature dropping today about 10 degrees ***compared to yesterday,” he said…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-09/qld-bushfire-emergency-laidley/11583980
8 Oct Updated about 9 hours ago: ABC: Bushfire destroys home in Lockyer Valley town of Laidley as locals told to seek shelter
Parts of Queensland are experiencing temperatures more than 10 degrees Celsius above average and 31 fires are burning across the state…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-08/bushfire-destroys-home-at-laidley-as-locals-told-to-seek-shelter/11579538
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They told us we’d soon be suffering Sydney’s scorching ‘climate’ because of carbon [sic]. Funny thing happened: Sydney is now ‘suffering’ our
climateweather with a chilly, showery, southerly breeze keeping things to a max of 19˚C while we’ve got glorious sunshine and a ‘life-threatening’ 20˚C (and it’s only October).David-of-Cooyal, you may be in for bit of luck this weekend as da BøM is showing rain in your neighbourhood – then again, that’s 2 to 3 days away so it could be the complete opposite. And for something completely different, Ron Clutz has an updated (as of 3 days ago) animation of the Northwest Passage sea ice regrowth – it’s b-a-c-k:
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2019/10/06/nwp-icing-update-2019-oct-05/
And on the other side of the Arctic Sea, the Northeast Passage is still ‘open for business’:
https://journal-neo.org/2019/10/06/northeast-passage-from-the-past-into-the-future/
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I remember when I was younger, October long weekend you could almost guarantee to get some nice beach weather.
Merewether today, COLD and windy, no beach-goers anywhere, except in jumpers walking the promenade.
40
What – no kiteboarders or grommets thrashing around in the shorebreak?
Stopped by my local this arvo and not only were kiteboarders out en masse (they love a 10+ kt sea breeze) the first bikinis of summer were out – not so much en masse yet the aroma of suntan lotion was in the fragrant warm air… sweet summer sunshine, where have you been so long!
10
Blair Trewin of the BoM wrote a paper
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3530
“A daily homogenized temperature data set for Australia”
about how he homogenised Australia’s historic (measured) temperature record to create the new non-historic “homogenised” record, ACORN-SAT. One reference given in his paper to
now goes to a site where you can find out:
5 BUSINESSES YOU CAN RUN FROM A SELF STORAGE UNIT
Unbelievable.
50
What a complicated bucket of cow poo .
50
An anagram of that bloke down at the pub – Blair Trewin – or was he in a storage shed (?) is Bertwin Liar.
Could be related to the ex-PM of the UK, Tony Bliar, as well as your ex-PM, Malcolm ‘444’ Liar. Small world, innit!
50
Thanks David. One point I did pick up on based on a quick perusal was the impact of coastal station location changes, producing, as expected, significant changes in the maximum temperatures. It appears that these sites have had to be “adjusted” manually because the algorithms wouldn’t compensate for the differences.
One site that grabbed my attention was Eucla, where the coastal site of the old telegraph station, and no doubt home for the original measurements, is now buried under sand dunes. Thus I’m presuming that all new temp measurements are now up on the scarp some distance away, and I would expect a totally different temperature profile. Surely this site would be difficult to homogenise, given that it only has one nearby measuring site.
Sigh… It seems that Dr Trewin has been strongly pushing his own barrow for many years, without stepping back and wondering if it’s all worthwhile. And the results seem to indicate that entire process is deeply flawed.
40
You missed a very important point
“This data set contains data from 112 locations across Australia, and extends from 1910 to the present, with 60 locations having data for the full post‐1910 period.
REPEATING “with 60 locations having data for the full post‐1910 period.”
So the climate for the entire continent of Australia (since 1910 ) has been ‘determined’ by the temperature dat from just 60 BOM stations……After homogenising all of the data from 112 stations..
This is wacky BS science
Why the F#ck is the BOM playing around with the gibberish ?
Sack the idiots !
40
Specifically sack Blair Trewin
he’a an idiot !
50
Also Bill by using the lovely accounting tricks I’m sure you could get any answer you wanted just by shifting the variables such as the number of nearby stations to come up with any temp you want .
In BOMs case it’s not much of a change needed for average to become above average .
40
Bill, it would be interesting to look at those 60 sites and confirm that many of them have either changed their recording location or measurement apparatus.
Surely if either has occurred, then the temperature data record cannot be regarded as continuous.
30
And? – they need to cover a 500K grid – this is not weather, this is climate
why is this so hard.
in each 500k grid you have one measurement,and by the nature of the grid, it will be impossible to represent all the potential variations for that particular grid segment. Does it matter? No, not really, after all the baseline is 30 years, not 30 seconds.
/climate is not weather.
/temps match those of UAH (for Andy’s benefit)
04
temps match those of UAH
So no warming in Australia from 1998 onwards
and no warming from 1980-1996
That must be what BOM is saying
Thanks PF
Oh and thanks for showing everybody JUST HOW INCREDIBLY INACCURATE climate models are
You are absolutely DESTROYING the AGW meme, single-handedly 🙂
/PF HATES real data
20
ignore the video – it’s a promo piece for solar – or at least that’s what showed for me:
VIDEO: 9 Oct: 7News: AAP: Victorians warned solar panels installed in state scheme were done by dodgy company
Hundreds of Victorians have been warned their solar panels installed through a $1.3 billion state scheme were done by a dodgy company using unlicensed electricians.
Community Energy Group Pty Ltd, trading as Space Solar, carried out 546 installations under the Labor government’s signature solar homes rebate scheme – but not all of the work was up to scratch.
It employed unlicensed electrical workers to carry out works in an unsafe manner, with technical and safety defects found.
“This kind of behaviour is totally unacceptable,” Solar Homes Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said…
The sole director of Community Energy Group has had their electrical registration ***cancelled by Energy Safety Victoria.
Some of the defects were minor and easily fixed, but a number were far more serious and “demonstrate a wilful disregard for Victoria’s strict solar safety standards”, the government said.
***The issues have now all been rectified.
The solar homes program helped sweep the Andrews Labor government to a second term in 2018.
However, it’s been plagued with criticism for the way it has been rolled out, with customers not buying panels unless they have a rebate, drying up business.
It led to the government rejigging the way the rebates were issued to try to keep a more continuous level of work for installers.
https://7news.com.au/business/renewable-energy/victorians-warned-solar-panels-installed-in-state-scheme-were-done-by-dodgy-company-c-494411
at The Age, the problems have not been rectified; people will have to pay upfront to have their system checked, and the company is only banned “from participating in the rebate program for at least two years”:
9 Oct: Age: Solar installer banned from government rebate program after safety defects revealed
By Simone Fox Koob
Hundreds of customers who had solar panels installed using the government’s rebate scheme will have to have them independently checked after one of the operators was found to be using unlicensed electricians.
The state government has banned solar installer Space Solar – also known as Community Energy Group – from participating in the rebate program for at least two years after it found that the company had been employing unlicensed electrical workers to “carry out works in a unsafe manner”.
The company conducted 546 solar installations through the government’s solar homes scheme, and many were found to have technical and safety defects…
All the customers have been contacted and told “given the behaviour” of the operator, they should have their systems double-checked by an independent electrical safety inspector, which is likely to cost a few hundred dollars…
Customers have been told to contact Consumer Affairs, and the government is expecting Space Solar to cover any costs…
The company describes itself as the leading solar installer in Sydney and Melbourne with a decade of experience and a “team of professional engineers”.
It became a Clean Energy Council-certified solar retailer in August. Only customers who use CEC-approved retailers are able to claim the government rebate…
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/solar-installer-banned-from-government-rebate-program-after-safety-defects-revealed-20191009-p52yvr.html
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This may well be the start of an avalanche of bad news about Victoria’s subsidised solar installations.
20
Whether temperatures go up or down is irrelevant. It’s all climate change, it will be blamed on ” carbon ” emissions, and the answer is more renewables, higher taxes, and a ban on fossil fuel development.
30
on Macquarie Network Radio 2GB:
AUDIO: 7min21sec: 9 Oct: 2GB: Alan Jones: 30 homes feared lost as bushfires rage across northern NSW
RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons tells Alan Jones crews will assess the destruction this morning.
“We’ve got some real concerns there Alan.
“There’s some teams trying to make their way in there at first light.”
Initial reports suggested 20 homes had been destroyed in the village of Rappville but that number is now feared to be upwards of 30.
***Commissioner Fitzsimmons says it’s quite possible the fires are the result of arson.
“We have seen a number of them where human activity has been involved…
https://www.2gb.com/30-homes-feared-lost-as-bushfires-rage-across-northern-nsw/
don’t know if Fitzsimmons did another interview with 2GB, but no mention of possible arson in the following:
9 Oct: Guardian: AAP: Bushfires in northern New South Wales may have destroyed up to 30 homes
NSW Rural Fire Service says a number of houses were lost in Rappville, south of Casino
The RFS commissioner, Shane Fitzsimmons, said the two fires had “really gone through” communities.
“The initial report of 20 and the update I’ve got this morning of potentially 30 homes will have to be validated in the field as they literally go through the properties door to door and take stock of what’s been damaged and what’s been destroyed,” ***he told Macquarie radio on Wednesday…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/09/bushfires-in-northern-new-south-wales-destroy-up-to-20-homes
30
8 Oct: EchoNetDaily: Emergency: bushfire in Richmond Valley
ONE COMMENT:
M.Clarke Sth Golden says:
There has been no lightning in that area for weeks.
So unless power lines fell down, this was deliberately lit sometime late Saturday.
Follows the history of repeated bushfire arson in the Rappville – Kippenduff area in recent years. Who are these morons?
https://www.echo.net.au/2019/10/emergency-bushfire-richmond-valley/
40
Yesterday I posted about an error in BOM’s minimum readings for Redesdale in Victoria. Now I find an error in the minimum temperatures from Wagga Wagga AMO. The observed temperature was 10.3°C at 4:00am,
50
Sorry, I hit the post button too soon.
Yesterday I posted about an error in BOM’s minimum readings for Redesdale in Victoria. Now I find an error in the minimum temperatures from Wagga Wagga AMO. The observed minimum for 8 October was 10.3°C at 4:00am, 9°C at 12:30pm and 5.9°C at 10:30pm, while the minimum for 8 October shown on the Climate Data Online website shows the minimum as 10.2°C. Clearly the Climate Data Online website has not been corrected. Perhaps the systems the BOM uses don’t allow for corrections of minimum data when the error occurs at an unexpected time, say afternoon or evening.
I’m thinking that the equivalent error for the maximum temperature would be that the maximum observed temperature would be higher than the Climate Data Online temperature, but that would never happen. The highest observed temperature or greater would be recorded as that’s the temperature that “proves” climate change
50
So far all the discussion has been about those adjustments necessary to fit temperature data into a 500k grid. The consensus appears to be that the BOM is artificially amplifying the warming trend. This is despite the fact that everyone else in the world, including UAH are seeing the same trend, and by the same amount.
On thing that has not been considered is the accuracy in the way the various systems, like glass bulb thermometers, or the resistance detector thermometer, have on the weather record.
For example could we say that older records are as accurate as the newer ones? Or visa versa?
Is there observer bias in the older records?
16
Peter,
The fact “that everyone else in the world, including UAH are seeing the same trend, and by the same amount” is only seen here as PROOF of the global conspiracy.
You cannot win using facts as they are part of the conspiracy.
Thumbs vs science, science loses
15
It is a pity, as I do like a good conspiracy, but… I do need, at the very least, a decent motive. What I find interesting is that facts find no traction against their combined unreason. It does show that it easy to try to tear something, or someone down, but much harder to build.
07
You don’t produce facts, PF
Just propaganda gibberish
Now where is that evidence for CO2 warming?
Where is that lit of human caused climate changes in the last 40 years?
/PF luvs corrupted data
41
When you have to rely on data generated by poor recording techniques from poorly-sited measuring sites, and with further data manipulations, then any data corruptions will in turn corrupt your “facts”.
31
It’s a great troupe, is it not. But exactly how true is it? If a site is affected by siting decisions, and these are included in the site description, then logically, there is not much of a concern.
13
Bad data is all you can rely on, Isn’t it PF.
You know the urban heat and bad site problems are a major concern which is USED by BOM.
/PF luvs bad data.
21
Logic was never one of your strong points, was it PF !!
/PF = always illogical
31
They bang on about science yet can’t provide any, only excuses
04
UAH has seen no warming in Australia since 1998
And no warming from 1980-1996
So again the FACTS don’t suit your gibberish, either of you.
Stop polluting the blog. !!!
40
“You cannot win using facts “
No, you two just IGNORE that facts.
Which is why you are both always LOSERS.
/Stop you blog-clogging nonsense.
41
I particularly like their idea that all the coal fired power stations should stop generating for a day (not shut down, that is a long process) to teach a lesson.
05
But you wouldn’t learn.. you are incapable of it.
Now where is that evidence for CO2 warming?
Where is that list of human caused climate changes in the last 40 years?
/PF squirming and worming.
41
Back with the “conspiracy ” theory Mr Edwards !
10
I have, you still can’t publish a proper paper.
01
/empty troll mickey !
10
Peter, I believe many Met observers, either Met staff or trained private observers, were conscientious and did their best to accurately read the thermometers and record the readings. Having had to measure and record many meter readings, it’s not a difficult task if you know what you are doing.
In any case, the differences noted seem to be greater than one degree C, which I doubt would be caused by measurement errors.
20
If I may make another comment, strong concerns have been raised, both on this site and others, about the recording technique of the Automated Weather Stations (AWS). I believe that they are can record record outlier peaks of temperature, which I also believe is contrary to accepted recording practice in other countries. These peaks could be caused by gusts of hot wind, or heat-emitting objects passing by.
30
Both of your comments are very interesting G4 – this is Why Mr Student (working in a brewery!) developed the T-Test which now carries his name. The idea being that you could identify such bias.
They use that and other statistical methods in their quality control
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data-services/content/quality-control.html
12
“The idea being that you could identify such bias. “
And use it !
Statistical methods that identify and adjust site changes that may never have actually happened.
/PF likes VERY bad science.
40
8 Oct: NOAA: September 2019 tied as 2nd hottest on record for U.S.
U.S. also saw 4 more billion-dollar disasters since May
Despite being the start of meteorological autumn, September felt more like a summer swelter across much of the contiguous United States. The month was also drier than normal, but 2019 continued its soggy stretch with the wettest January through September period (YTD) ever recorded…
The average temperature for September across the contiguous U.S. was 68.5 degrees F (3.7 degrees above the 20th-century average), which ties with 2015 as the second warmest September on record…
https://www.noaa.gov/news/september-2019-tied-as-2nd-hottest-on-record-for-us
VIDEO: 2min: 8 Oct: WFMY: Snowstorm to unload up to 2 feet of snow, lash north-central U.S. with blizzard conditions
The second major storm in 10 days will dump several inches to 2 feet of snow over the northern Rockies.
by Alex Sosnowski, Accuweather
The second major storm in 10 days will dump several inches to 2 feet of snow over the northern Rockies and shock areas farther to the east over the northern Plains with blizzard conditions.
The storm system will bring another round of early-season accumulating snow to nearly a half a million square miles of the interior United States…
The gathering storm has prompted a slew of winter storm warnings and watches in parts of six states…
Arctic air will charge southward at the same time a storm moves eastward from the Pacific Ocean over the northern Rockies and Plains during the middle and latter days of this week…
AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will dip to 10 to 20 degrees lower than the actual temperature as gusty winds kick in during the storm…
With leaves still on the trees at intermediate and lower elevations, the clinging nature of the snow can weigh branches down and lead to sporadic power outages…
While less snow will fall from this storm when compared to the late-September storm over the northern Rockies and High Plains, accumulations are forecast to range from a few inches in parts of northern Idaho and the eastern parts of Montana and Wyoming to an AccuWeather StormMax™ of 24 inches over south-central Montana…
***The storm from late September already brought one-quarter to one-half of the average seasonal snowfall in parts of the northern Rockies ***with the official start of winter still a couple of months away.
For example, Cut Bank, Montana, was blanketed by 18 inches of snow from the late-September storm alone and has an average seasonal snowfall of 34 inches.
The midweek storm will significantly add to the totals for the winter of 2019-2020…
In the wake of the storm, record low temperatures can occur over portions of the North Central states late this week and this weekend…
https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/weather/accuweather/forecast-snowstorm-to-unload-up-to-2-feet-of-snow/607-67ca155d-8090-4e3a-bcf1-9f5403e5d8a4
20
I’m very interested in that first chart. But can’t understand it.
I can see the T Max and T Min layout, but am baffled by the Temperature on one Y axis and Adjustment on the other. And there seems to be no key for the various plots?
Any help will be much appreciated.
10