JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Both Queensland Premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, and Opposition Leader, Deb Frecklington, are reporting discussions on variants of the Bradfield scheme. Oppositions version sends water into the Warrego and hence the Darling, not Lake Eyre. The government are being very cautious on the scale. Sir Leo Hielscher is into it big time – https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/experts-dismiss-new-drought-proofing-bradfield-scheme/11666006
Meanwhile, Pauline and Bob Katter have buried the hatchet (not in each other) and doing a drought tour (coz both the government and opposition aren’t listening).
Diverting the Clarence next?
Paul Watson had some incisive analysis on Extinction Rebellion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFkN5H4CCY0&t=102s
90
The Bradfield Scheme is best avoided, politically unpalatable, a couple of pipe lines from the Ord system to western Queensland and the MDB would be more acceptable. It would only cost six billion dollars to drought proof the whole area.
50
There is no perfect solution, but for a major critical water supply to be dependant on pumpung and hence power suppy, would seem to be very risky with the current level of logic being applied to generation systems.
A system largely utilising gravity and natural flows would be far more sensible..
IE , the Hells Gate Dam proposal.
80
Agree with pumping water from the Ord but why not from the north coast as well , do it once go big
60
There appears to be no political will for the Bradfield Scheme, whereas pipes from lake Argyle won’t have the same problem.
Chad the power supply to run the pumps could be solar and wind, with backup diesel generators.
30
Pipes, pumps, controls, windmills, solar farms, masses of infrastructure to maintain.
…Not really what you want to “ futureproof” you agricultural heartland !
“IF” it can be done , as suggested fron the north east using mostly gravity and natural flows, even at a much higher initial cost, it is much more sesible.
..Actially, the “sensible” solution would probably be to do both..for supply security !
50
Actually the most sensible thing to do is what Morrison is doing.
Out my way $10 million of federal money is going towards raising and strengthening an earthen dam, in preparation for the next large inundation. They are also spending $2 million on a new pipeline to the town, the original pipe was built out of Jarrah in the 1930s.
They have only six months to finish the water pipe construction or the town will close down, no flushing toilets or showers is a third world problem.
20
Romans were able to transport water over huge distances without electricity – just sayin!
60
Yes, when you had enough slaves to build viaducts!
point though..
50
And they had uphill to start with
50
And ride the bikes pumping the water.
20
Actually both of these power sources have been used to pump water in the past eg on farms!
Economically they can make sense if the pump is remote from grid power and the water can be delivered intermittently
So let the ORD and BRADFIELD schemes consider Wind and Solar power for water pumping. It could be Win Win and help shut the eco loons up at the same time, Win Win Win! ( More Winning, to use a Trumpism)
50
The Clarence and Richmond are in drought atm. Similar region , so similar conditions. Forget about it.
03
Pumping from the Ord would be very costly. Sir Leo Hielscher’s Bradfield V2.0 uses gravity and also makes hydropower.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/experts-dismiss-new-drought-proofing-bradfield-scheme/11666006
31
The last “ord river” pumping scheme i have seen , was planned to transfer 8000Gl pa to the east.. with only half of that ending up in the MD system. The rest to the NT and SA for industry and agriculture.
By itself, that is only a small part of what is used in the MD basin.
Irrigation alone needs approx 4 times that much, and ideally a similar amount for environmental flows etc.
We need a better plan !
30
Well here’s a better plan.
Shift a sizable portion of the MDB irrigated agricultural operations to the Ord and then restrict the growth in the MDB consistent with long term MDB inflows.
Mohammed to the Mountain.
“Mahomet cald the Hill to come to him. And when the Hill stood still, he was neuer a whit abashed, but said; If the Hill will not come to Mahomet, Mahomet wil go to the hil.”
Francis Bacon. 1625.
60
There is a lot of fertile but unproductive land in NQ that can grow rice and winter small crops. I’m sure cotton would thrive in the north but we would have to change our taste in fruit before we could have many orchards.
30
Hey Vishy didn’t “experts ” once say the titanic was unsinkable ? And then later on other “experts” said the smallest thing that existed was an atom ? Etc etc .
50
experts also thought Thalidomide and Cane Toads were a good thing and that there were WMDs in Iraq. And that we needed desal because dams would never refill.
50
O yes robert rosicka… Open enquiry, free speech, evidence presented, the bedrock of truth to data. W/out it, myth, Kristelnacht, burning of witches.
50
He didn’t say in the audio but I believe he was talking about Hells Gate Dam, on the western slopes of the Divide and 600M ASL.
30
Yes with a higher wall and hydro Sir Leo said in the longer interview. Also mentioned that in his time Qld taxpayers didn’t pay for coal industry, aluminium industry, Expo or the Cultural Centre. Private enterprise did. So here he’s advocating that the government would only underwrite the scheme and that we’ve lost the art of the deal in recent times.
Critics have listed the massive evaporative demand as a drawback.
A real schism here philosophically – does “drought proofing” make good economic sense. Or do you need to shut the gate when droughts come and have alternative income elsewhere. Feeding animals in a big drought bad economics and animal welfare. Or as with Sir Sidney Kidman have a string of properties with geographic spread to hedge risk. Although Federation drought was Victoria to the Kimberley in scale. Nowhere to run to and hide. See Figure 7 here https://researchmgt.monash.edu/ws/portalfiles/portal/245960667/245957726_oa.pdf
So perhaps agriculturalists need to do an international Kidman – Australia and South America?
30
Yes seems that way , it’s amazing that pumping water uphill for pumped hydro is somehow a good idea but pumping water for a Bradfield type scheme gets poo pooed.
50
Not sure why there is a problem with pumping water over long distances, as we are still doing this in WA over 900 kms for about a hundred years.
30
Went looking for the longest pipeline in the world and it’s a doozie, unfortunately Wiki is the source but too lazy to verify all the facts and figures .
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Man-Made_River
Wasn’t an obscene amount of money to build it considering the location and we’re talking over 2000 kilometres pumping useful quantities .
30
That GMR is a “network” of many interlinked systems.
The Ord to the MDB is quite a bit more than 2k kms ..point to point !
…with quite a bit of elevation gain on route
And.. the Ord proposal would move at least 3 times as much water volume!
IE , the Ord proposal would be several orders of magnitude bugger than the “GMR” . So probably $100 bn Au
…..Never going to fly !
….
00
I just crunched some rough numbers for moving 8000 Gl/yr through a pipe line. ..
With a 2m dia pipe ithe water has to flow at around 300 km/h.!
….twin pipes = 150km/h
Using a 4.0m dia pipe its “only” moving at 70 km/h !!
So twin 4 m pipes would get it to 35 km/h ..still crazy speed with huge losses.
Can you imagine the pumps and power needed to make that happen ?
00
G4, just to give some perspective of the difference between the existing WA pipeline and the proposed Ord-MDB scheme…
The ORD scheme proposed would be 3-4 times longer, and move 1000 times the volume of water daily !
00
Paul’s latest on ‘I’m not eating bugs’ is hilarious!
50
The Snow will all have gone from Australia by 2050 – Really?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/01/the-snow-will-all-have-gone-from-australia-by-2050-really/
70
Not so in Chicago, Chicago’s snowiest Halloween ever.
Spooky goings on in the climate, woooooooooo……
100
Yonnie,
You must be wrong.
Al Gore told us a long time ago that all the snow would be gone by now.
Al couldn’t be wrong, so you must be hallucinating.
70
I might be possessed, I drank a potion called “John Daniels” and a warm fuzzy feeling affected my immediate climate.
90
Not only Chicago’s snowiest Halloween ever –
it was accompanied by “8- to 12-foot waves along the Lake Michigan shoreline”, hoot! Meanwhile…
“It is a fine and clear bluebird day here at Whakapapa… The Valley T bar is OPEN for some spring skiing and boarding. Please note that outside of the Valley is an un-patrolled area and hence should only be accessed if you have back country skills gear”. 291 cm / 10+ ft snow base 3 Nov:
https://www.metservice.com/skifields/whakapapa
“Heatwave! Aussie scorcher makes its way to New Zealand: While temperatures are forecast to reach 28C [and] 30C in some areas… Auckland to 21C over the weekend… Wellington will reach… 20C on Sunday”. Call that a heat wave??? “A mixture of low pressures and westerly winds is then predicted for the second half of the month, likely producing cooler conditions for much of the South Island”. Ah, another cold wave:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12281793
Victoria and NSW alpine areas: Monday (80%) chance of showers or snow; Thursday (80%) chance of snow showers; Friday (90%) chance of snow showers; Saturday 9 November -2˚C (70%) chance of snow showers:
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mountbuller.shtml
Anyone heard/seen if WA’s Bluff Knoll received a dusting of snow Friday 1st of November?
70
Did the storm wash up the wreck of the Edmond Fitzgerald?
20
A great song!
10
RickDre:
Who said Climate “scientists” never learn? Here is a prime example of them learning from David Viner’s claim that “snow would be a rare thing in the UK” in 2000, 2007, 2013 and 2017.
Still the same claim but far enough in the future for every one to have forgotten it by the time the date rolls round, and they can repeat the prediction, but it sounds new.
As in 1989: 10 Years to solve Climate Crisis
San Jose Mercury News June 30, 1989
A senior environmental official at the United Nations says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels. Crop failures would create a flood of “eco-refugees”.
Mind you we have our own Tim Flannery
2004 ‘Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis’ due to lack of rain.
2005 “Sydney’s dams could be dry in as little as two years”
2007 “hotter soils meant that “even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems”.
2008 “The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009.”
As a wise, or possibly sceptical, man said “Any fool can make predictions about the future, and so many of them do”.
250
wasnt it supposed to be gone already?
20
Desperate Efforts to Drag the Climate Change Drought Narrative Back on Track
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/02/desperate-efforts-to-drag-the-climate-change-drought-narrative-back-on-track/
70
The climate’s in drag.
50
AU is in permanent drought, its the norm dry continent = drought continent, it doesnt rain until there is ‘drought breaking rainfall’. Therefore its rain events that should need to be predicted NOT droughts. AND water storage systems need to have real money spent on them, not hand me downs and lip service from the major parties.
50
It would be fair to say you could always find some part of Australia in drought. We are having a big drought now apparently, but in my part of Oz it is a green as. I did my 80km drive to my shooting range this morning and saw thousands (yes thousands, not gilding the lily) rounds of hay and silage rounds in paddocks waiting to be gathered up. Swings and roundabouts.
20
Look, I know Al Gore said it would maybe happen in seven years but, but the world is ending in like, TWO WEEKS, people!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRVYPvYQSpo
140
Good!
That means they can predict another revised date in three weeks instead of us having to wait till 2050.
What excitement!
140
Greta getting so expensive you need a double? Harrison, cheap, insured and fully accredited, is your man for any event…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B-NuBwa7Oc
70
Apparently, according non-scientists/people who specialize in playing dress ups and playing make-believe
“Mr Schwarzenegger is not the only celebrity supporting Ms Thunberg — US actor Leonardo DiCaprio shared a photo
of the himself and Ms Thunberg on his Instagram, calling her “a leader of our time”.”
Hmm…if that’s “leadership”…….er……..
10
Sorry…link for quote ( above )
https://www.abc.net.au./news/2019-11-03/greta-thunberg-seeks-lift-back-across-atlantic-to-climate-meet/11667158
10
DiCaprio has a little yacht, perhaps she can use that?
She is a very important person, y’know !!!
20
Im planning my extra galactic rocket right now!
30
The latest insanity from corporate virtue signalers:
According to a radio commentator, Toyota is adding to their fleet of alternate fuel vehicles, Hydrogen Fuel Cell powered ones. The commentator explained that it isn’t yet practical due to the limited Hydrogen Infrastructure.
What he did not mention is that Hydrogen does not exist in the free state on earth but must be generated by using energy from another source. Thus Hydrogen is not a fuel. It is an energy storage system (aka battery). Apparently wishes (aka solar cells) and unicorn farts (aka windmills) are supposed to provide that energy so that a carbon based fuel won’t have to be used.
The general public desperately needs to be educated in the unavoidable operation of The Three Laws of Thermodynamics. I fear that might be too much to expect. Far too many believe the government promises that wishes and unicorn farts will provide for the necessary energy free lunch so that everyone can have their cake and eat it too.
When truth is at long last unavoidably exposed, things are going to get very ugly. The ride is going to get very bumpy. Especially when the edge of the abyss has been passed and the no there, there, is finally encountered.
180
As Willis Essenbach put it a while back:-
“The problem with hydrogen is that it is pre-burnt. You can’t just open up a hydrogen mine”
160
29 years ago, in a engineering paper project, I found that the hydrogen fuel cell was suggested as the end all cell for vehicles but was totally impracticable, and still is.
70
yep too much to expect, people still think batteries are generators
20
They are taught (tricked?) to think that way. All of the grand announcements of solar plus battery projects give the battery size in meaningless MWs instead of MWh.
40
If that indeed would work, then sack the lot of them world-wide and we have the best planet saving initiative yet.
141
“The academics note that they are particularly well suited to the task of saving the world from global warming, given their expertise and prestige among the common people.”
As someone famously said, scientists have never built a nuclear reactor. For that, you need people who understand the real world. You can tell what these cloistered academics, with their snouts firmly in the taxpayer sourced, government funded trough think of the real world by their use of the phrase “the common people”.
Big of them to be so generous.
121
“To back up their request, the academics assert that the “impacts of climate change are being felt more rapidly than predicted, with Himalayan glaciers melting twice as fast as expected and the Arctic warming to a full 4°C above average.”
The climate change believers keep saying things like “the Arctic warming to a full 4°C above average” so the ice melts, but they never say what average is. If average is -5°C or lower, then the ice won’t melt. Then there’s the apparent temperature with wind speed taken into account. If the average is just above 0°C, but the average wind speed is say, 20 kph or higher, the actual temperature is probably -10°C or lower so the ice won’t melt.
60
Greenland now: -31˚C (-24˚F), wind chill -39˚C (-35˚F).
http://www.summitcamp.org/status/weather/
I’m no academic and I sure ain’t common (!) yet the new normal would appear to be as frigid as the old normal: freezing!
80
Sounds like a nice jolly at taxpayers expense.
Here’s a thought – get them to prove climate change is real, and *then* they can fluff about at taxpayer expense.
Sometimes I have trouble telling academics and politicians apart….
20
I was thinking about the previous topic, anfit got me to wondering about how the Elite love war.
From a demented ” we are the masters of tge universe” la la thinking the Elite seem yo ascribe to, war is a wonderful thing – it serves as a cover yo stip off peoples liberties and protections, and slso allows them to neatly “cull the human herd” which seems to be important to them if you were a gaia worshipper.
Thr culling mindset surfaces in many of the occult Elites writings. Back in WW2
, women would walk up to many men who werent in army uniform and give them a white feather to say they wére cowards. I often used to wonder if this tactic was paid for by the Elite to maximise mental control over the population.
Now fast forward to the companies rapidly being given ” white feathers” should they not go to “war” for climate change……same pressure, same name and shame, similar imaginary bogeyman…
90
OS, I think it is very similar, and scary what is going on..
40
True that.
There is nothing funny about doomsday global warming … unless you’re laughing at the people who actually believe in doomsday global warming …
“[Global Warming] is not inherently funny.
Trevor Noah, host of Comedy Central’s The Daily Show, observed:
“You know the crazy people you see in the streets shouting that the world is ending?
Turns out, they’re all actually climate scientists.”
https://qz.com/1721247/the-best-way-to-talk-about-climate-change-is-to-use-humor/
Whoops! Wait. What?
[Global Warming] is no laughing matter
https://www.stalbertgazette.com/article/climate-change-no-laughing-matter-20180324
No laughing matter, yet humor inspires [global warming] activism
https://phys.org/news/2018-03-humor-climate.html
Melting icecaps, mass flooding, megadroughts and erratic weather are no laughing matter.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180301151514.htm
Sarah Silverman Shrieks ‘We’re All Gonna F*~king Die’ From [Global Warming]
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/culture/lindsay-kornick/2018/10/11/sarah-silverman-claims-were-all-gonna-fcking-die-climate
It would be even funnier if it wasn’t true.
60
‘.. mass flooding, megadroughts and erratic weather..’ well if we are getting a new magnetic excursion ( I think we are) or reversal, thats exactly what we can expect.
So sign of the times maybe well whats going on. But it aint SUVs and coal power thats the cause.
30
Is global warming all due to super El Niño’s? (My latest article)
https://www.cfact.org/2019/11/02/is-global-warming-all-due-to-super-el-ninos/
In a recent CFACT article, climate expert Joe Bastardi says super El Niños have caused all the atmospheric warming since satellite measurements began in 1978. I suggested this two years ago in a CFACT article titled “No CO2 warming for the last 40 years?” Now Joe has confirmed it.
The focus of Joe’s long article is that these super El Niños are natural.
Most importantly, here is Joe’s picture of the 1998-2000 super El Niño step up in global temperatures, with nothing but 15 to 20 year pauses on either side:
My description of this big step up, posted two years ago, is here.
There is little to no CO2 warming in the entire satellite record! Just a step up warming due to the super El Niño 20 years ago. I told you so. We may now have a second super El Niño step warming but it is too soon to tell. In any case there will still be no evidence of any CO2 induced warming. The gradual increase in atmospheric CO2 has nothing to do with super El Niños. Joe explains this in great detail.
Regarding the supposed surface and ocean warming, while it may be real, to my knowledge it cannot be due to the CO2 increase. (I say may be real because I have serious doubts about the validity of the convoluted statistical methods used to estimate this warming.)
I know of no mechanism whereby steadily increasing CO2 in the atmosphere can cause steady surface warming without first causing steady atmospheric warming, which the satellite data say has not happened. The surface and ocean warming would require increased back radiation from the airborne CO2 molecules, which requires increased atmospheric temperature, which we do not see.
If the surface and ocean are in fact warming, then “why?” is a very big question, which ought to be the focus of research. A solar effect seems most likely. But whatever caused it, this warming is not evidence of AGW. Unfortunately the climate science community is so wedded to AGW that this research is still waiting to happen. Why the predicted CO2 warming has not occurred is another good question, a huge one.
The elegant thing about science, at least in principle, is that a single observation can falsify a popular hypothesis. But as Thomas Kuhn pointed out in his groundbreaking book — The Structure of Scientific Revolutions– this may not be true in practice when the hypothesis is deeply entrenched, due to what I call paradigm protection. The community of believers will resist what observation clearly says. So we get the argument that the data must be wrong. However, the satellite data is accurate enough to falsify AGW.
The great philosopher of science Karl Popper said that science was a process of elegant conjectures, followed by refutation by observation. The conjecture of AGW is largely refuted by observation. CFACT reported it first.
110
““No
CO2warming for the last 40 years?” Now Joe has confirmed it.” modified.20
Has anyone else noticed the subliminal message in ABC Saturday News broadcasts? Right at the beginning where they have the arty date and day swoop-around they briefly zoom in on the third to sixth letters of the day of the week. Yep, they introduce the Saturday evening news with a “turd” . They have truth in advertising on at least one night of the week.
120
I was going to make a joke about this but its too corny……….
70
Oh, go on.
Corn we can handle.
40
Re Jo’s “crossed bandaids”
A potential growth industry IMO
Maybe a set over a map of the Murray Darling for its next thread mention for starters?
No doubt others are also deserving.
BTW Herb Miqnery (US cowboy cartoonist) hides a pair of such bandaids and a pair of eyes in his cartoons. The “q” was originally a silent “g” which he got sick of getting pronounced.
https://www.amazon.com/Best-Mignery-Collection-Humorous-Western/dp/0933909012
50
Michael Moore..has produced a documentary…on “renewables”.
He was stunned to find out that the whole Orwellian meme is pure expensive virtue signalling trash.
Do these people not have access to “The Google” for all these years to now suddenly be surprised?
The left has started eating itself.. 🙂
http://planetofthehumans.com
130
They seem to suggest that humans are still causing extinctions..NO,
“his film is the wake-up call to the reality we are afraid to face: that in the midst of a human-caused extinction event, the so-called “environmental movement’s” answer is to push for techno-fixes and band-aids.’
So what does that mean..extreme fixes? FACT none of them have a clue what reality of geophysics or astrophysics is.
40
Another contender for “crossed bandaids”?
“Desperate Efforts to Drag the Climate Change Drought Narrative Back on Track”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/02/desperate-efforts-to-drag-the-climate-change-drought-narrative-back-on-track/
More “Science is now mostly about an income, not an outcome” ?
60
Moderation? Which word has joined the “f” one?
20
The “C” word, it must now be spelt Klimate.
60
Drag mate, drag. It up sets the snow-flakes and hopefully makes them a thing of the past.
20
Me too! And I just posted my innocent article:
https://www.cfact.org/2019/11/02/is-global-warming-all-due-to-super-el-ninos/
Is Bastardi now a bad word? Don’t tell Joe. He is a body builder.
80
Joe’s very fit but not overly huge, like the heavyweights that look like a condom full of walnuts.
51
I have now been moderated twice!
60
David,
Congratulations.
Keep up the good work.
90
clearly you need to be more moderate
20
“Activists sail four weeks across Atlantic for climate change summit — then learn it is canceled”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/02/activists-sail-four-weeks-across-atlantic-for-climate-change-summit-then-learn-it-is-canceled/
90
Ha ha…fail….
Presumably they dont own a sat phone or HF radio….?
20
it is possible to turn around, if you dont have bookings in Chile you dont want to waste
20
“New York : State Of Superstition”
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/11/new-york-state-of-superstition/
60
Moderation again? Have I made a little list?
50
Give your list to Emily.
She sure needs it.
The current list is a big bag of SH*T.
50
While meteorologists struggle to produce improved forecast skill past two weeks, we have gained a great deal of skill at the shorter time ranges, particularly for days 3-8.
There have been numerous studies over the years that have identified a natural limit to weather forecasting of about 14 days. This article provides yet another perspective that confirms this “natural limit”. And it confirms exactly how accurate forecasts beyond 30 days actually are.
60
I always reckon 4 days is about the limit for weather forecasting…..beyond that…very limited accuracy.
110
Thredbo Ski Area, NSW, Australia:
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml
Saturday 9 November, -4˚C overnight, chance of snow showers.
Can’t wait to see how their 6-day gamble on
global warmingcarbon heatingSnovember turns out.30
The chaotic limit depends on the circumstances. In the case of a hurricane track it can be hours. Given a stagnant high pressure system maybe a week. Four days is probably average.
10
Thats because they cant factor in quantities like solar ejections or chaos and many other factors. The sooner weather is stated as not a ‘state determinable process‘ the better. Its similar to trying to predict nuclear decay..impossible due to quantum mechanics.
40
Like Climate Change, more examples of making the successful Western democracies feel guilt. Geoffrey Robertson says museums and collectors should hand back the ‘stolen’ loot. The Elgin marbles for example which were neglected in the ruins of the Acropolis demolished by Venetian cannons because it was a powder magine for the Turks. Then bought by Lord Elgin from the Turkish rulers of what was then Ottoman land. Like a Phoenix, the new nation Greece was also recreated from the ruins under pressure from the British and they now want the priceless treasure back.
When I was on tour there I suggested to my angry local guide that the reliefs could be exactly and cheaply duplicated by laser scanning and 3D milling and put in place now that the Parthenon is resurrected, but that was not acceptable. So it’s not really about the past or recreating the glory of the ancient Greeks or even National pride. Like Climate Change it’s all about the money. Similarly with all stone and marble treasures. And as we saw in Afghanistan and Iraq, who guarantees their survival if ‘returned’ and then to whom? The original owners have been gone for over two thousand five hundred years and the originals are far safer in the London Museum.
So the weak underbelly of Western Christian civilization is this guilt. So we have Greta’s “How dare you” as if she is the victim of Western democracies exclusively, not China and India and Europe, but America in particular. This is despite the fact that world peace and the UN itself is largely due to America and its ongoing role stopping wars and promoting and funding discourse. You can understand why Donald Trump wants his troops home. He can let the Turks, Syrians, Iraqis, Israelis, Iranians and Kurds sort out their own messes. After all Aleppo had stood for 2,000 years before the Arab Spring promoted by Obama. From Tunisia to Turkey, what a disaster that has been for everyone.
But Climate Change is the really big ticket item. Even if you have to manufacture the evidence for a non existent problem.
Climate Change is the greatest science fiction based religion since Scientology. And even more profitable. It’s all about guilt.
170
Im just looking forward to the climate nuremberg trials…..
80
And Andrew Bolt confirms this view, that guilt is the angle of attack.
“Is global warming and anti-capitalism really a movement to express the guilt of being white?”
How the haters of freedom have conflated skin colour with climate change with democracy and gender is amazing. That no one at the ABC/CNN/BBC point this out as illogical is amazing.
So privileged white males are Alt Right and therefore responsible for climate change is quite amazingly silly, but it gets airplay.
And conservatives do not exist or should be locked up. Especially conservative journalist and even our conservative ex Prime Minister Tony Abbott who is alleged by Canberra to be a communist agent of a Foreign power. We are living in a fake news world.
100
The hard left are demented idiots…
PC is going to crash and burn as the Left keep getting loopier….
70
I don’t think Australia has any chance of progressing into the future while wasting vast amounts of money on solar and wind subsidy farms, while destroying proper power stations, while refusing to build new dams, while letting water needed by farmers flow uselessly into the ocean, while being the only country in history to buy a nuclear submarine design only to retrofit with diesel, while spending $150 billion on the useless NBN project which was obsolete from the start; while possessing an inability to make decisions like taking 50 years to decide on a second Sydney international airport; the list is endless. There are many more examples of this national dysfunction.
280
David,
Well done.
Perhaps the Australian people to get our Go Fund Me lawyers to critically examine all of those points and move forward to seek redress.
Perhaps we could get them to trace and recover the seven and a half tonnes of Gold now located somewhere on the great big barrier reef.
KK
70
Well said David. Dr Alan Finkel reported the cost of wind power as $92/MWhr without backup, and solar $91/MWhr without backup and $172/MWhr with 12 hours backup. When the wind doesn’t blow, dispatchable power sources must be available to meet demand. Currently those supplies include hydro, coal and gas. Therefore the costs of those backup supplies must be added to the costs for wind reported by Dr Finkel, essentially doubling the cost.
SA and Vic have the most wind generation capacity, and also the highest wholesale electricity prices at $110/MWhr for 2018/19 compared to $80 for Qld. Just 3 years ago the Vic price was the lowest in Australia at $46/MWhr. Talk about dysfunction – what a waste that is quickly destroying Australia’s competitiveness.
190
12 hour backup is way too short. On sunny days in a row you need at least 16 hours but in most of the world you can easily get no solar juice for 72 hours. For wind it is common to get nothing for 7 full days, due to very large stagnant highs. That is 168 hours. And peak demand tends to accompany these hot highs in summer.
Given that the backup will typically squeeze out more juice than the RE over time, it should be called frontup or some such.
30
absolutist arguments never look good.
Even in heavy cloud you can get 20% production from solar cells.
02
Depressing isn’t it David. You mention but a few examples of why I refuse to vote for any politician in this country. No matter who is elected the stupidity relentlessly gathers pace. So why even bother with this absurd pretense of democratic “good governance” and “world’s best practice”? The whole thing is a pitiful porridge of PC-driven stupidity and style-over-substance, making somethings out of nothings. Just look at the clowns coming out of involuntarily taxpayer-backed universities. Look at the protected crud ‘working’ at the ABC. Just look at the BOM’s politicized farce of weather reporting and forecasting. No accountability whatsoever. And the so-called new savior of the day, Scott Morrison, will do absolutely nothing about any of it.
But these political projectile-vomits will lobby for my vote.
Trained and set in place by the best of the worst.
—
I’ve been watching the ongoing record cold surge in the US south and Mexico for the past several weeks. Next week looks like mid-winter, but in early November. Six days from now has icy conditions all the way to the GOM and freezing all the way to the Atlantic East coastline. Re-run of the 1970s beginning?
https://on.windy.com/2vl79
80
Same in Europe, North Africa and Iran next week:
https://on.windy.com/2vl8c
Looks like a very cold norther hemisphere this winter.
80
I feel the same way except for on thing. Rather than waste my vote on the two major parties or vote informally I will give ON a chance. If more people thought that way perhaps one of the major parties will drop their pretenses and lies at least for one moment and form an alliance with ON to form a major government. There is no grantee of success but at least democracy is given one more chance. Otherwise, we might as well all go back to sleep and eventually be woken up by a loud sound when the nation crashes and burns.
60
PeterS:
It says a lot about the intellectual quality of the major parties in State and Federal parliaments that only ON has a sensible electricity supply policy.
The question we should ask our politicians is “IF renewables are so cheap, why doesn’t South Australia have the cheapest electricity in Australia?”
50
They will probably say thats an LNP conspiracy. No maths required if you go that way.
30
Our respective governments have let us down for a long time now. They are still letting us down. We all know the definition of insanity. So stop voting for them if we want to have even the remotest hope of a change for the better.
10
Methinks Sydney Airport II will remain a rich vein delayed, inept and poor decisions for decades to come as well.
10
Trying for a “moderation” record
“Jason and Jerry’s Big Adventure….”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/11/02/jason-and-jerrys-big-adventure/
Nice phraseology
40
Don’t forget today’s Lake Goldsmith Steam Rally, two hours drive from Melbourne.
https://www.lakegoldsmithsteamrally.org.au/
50
I actually think its worth maintaing these steam power skills, to reboot society post Leftism….
Lets face it, large scale power production is steam turbine driven, presumably when fossil fuels arent available it will be steam power or nothing….
70
When we don’t have coal, we do not have metals anyway. Carbon is what is used to remove oxygen from metal oxides and converting coal to coke changed the world. Australian coal is highly prized for making steel, what they call metallurgical coal. Charcoal from wood was not good enough.
90
I can see a day where the rabid lefties who have created this mess, will be rounded up and incarcerated after due process.
Then we can get started on rebuilding the place again. It will be a big job but worth it.
Bags running the big coal stations…..
40
Careful there or you might be on the shovelling gang
10
Need to be a fast (very, very, cubed) shoveller.
Those things need a tonne every 4 seconds.
Stand up and place your arms out so they make a right angle in front of you. Imagine someone facing you doing the same. Now fill that space inside that space between your arms to the top of your head.
That’s around one tonne of coal.
Crush that to a fine talcum like powder and inject it into the furnace.
That one tonne every four seconds.
Tony.
110
Steam? but there’ll be no water or snow or dams or any type of moisture due to the CO2 driven death spiral of completely destroying the atmosphere like the many times before in Earths history when CO2 was way higher than 410ppm……….oh wait.
60
If there is no water, there is no mythical water vapour feedback to put the mythical warming from CO2 into the mythical catastrophic range.
50
That’s 4!
30
Congratulations! I can’t get past two. Maybe this will do it:
All mimsey were the boregoves and the momeraths outgrabe. (Working from forgotten memory so spelling may be off.)
10
Really??
“Tony Abbott is a treasonous commie”
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2019/11/02/tony-abbott-is-a-treasonous-commie/
90
An illustration of who’s running Australia.
60
If Abbott is a commie then Morrison must be a Klingon, the opposition leader a Romulan and the Greens leader the Borg Queen.
80
….resistance is futile…..
Until it wasnt….
40
Tel’s comment succinctly encapsulates the location of the true foreign influence –it’s your ABC.
30
It was worth the risk IMO
30
Mt grandmother said everything in moderation, but there was no internet at that time.
90
Prescient. Was her name Nostradamus?
30
Moderation – the one thing you can never have too much of.
50
“Moderation – the one thing you can never have too much of.”
Yes you can. Everything becomes “MEDIOCRE”, and gets dragged ever downwards.
60
Moderation in all things including moderation itself is the answer.
40
The moderation claw has been adjusted, its becoming too sensitive.
20
Claw? )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVYx4qcXciw
20
Craw.
Makes more sense than CAGW.
20
My personal rant. There are big riots in Melbourne. Several XR and anti-mining protesters were arrested and injured. As well some policemen and police horses were attacked. The target was a mining conference. Many trying to enter were thrown to the ground by the protesters. The protesters consisted of young and old people. These sorts of protests are going on everywhere.
Plus we have the UN adoring 16-year-old Greta Thunberg who claims she can “see” carbon dioxide in the air. In America, a Senator Kennedy jr has said those who deny anything about climate change or global catastrophe, etc, should be prosecuted or jailed. This is agreed with by many notable people.
With Halloween on us I thought about how witches were burnt or drowned in the 15th and 16 th centuries. People thought old ladies were responsible for famines, plagues, diseases, wars, drought, floods, storms or any bad weather, etc. The worst witch hunts were in East Europe, West Europe, less so in England and a little bit in America (Salem e.g.). The point is it was all due to hysteria that affected the masses. It took some time for sanity to prevail and stop it from happening.
So I think the present-day claims of climate alarmism, climate emergencies, extinction by 2030, etc, is a form of the same type of hysteria. No amount of reasoning can combat this just as no reasoning could stop witches being executed for the troubles of the times. Maybe reason will return about the weather and I hope it’s not too long before the riots and abuse stop.
140
Edwina, those witches in the 16 17th C were done in because of the Little Ice Age that plagued Europe at that time, gotta blame someone…OF course the mighty RC church did allot of the blaming.
50
Poor Greta, paranoid childhood re yr K-12 UN pushed social justice ‘education.’ It’s indoctrination not education, comes with a history of political targeting of children. The H*tl*r Youth Programme indoctrination in N*z* principles, Mao Red Guard Brigade,love Big Brother, encouraging youth to denounce parents, and now our K-12 *values* education, see blog invisible serfs collar, it’s rewiring students very synapses to mould future behaviour as desired by the political left. Oh Socrates, oh Feynman! My favourite child actor here… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubIpoPjBUds
50
The French have the right idea (can’t believe I said that). They are tear gassing the XR. The police know how to quell riots. It is just a matter of letting them do the job.
20
Not so sure they are big riots, more like a few people scuffling on the steps of a big building.
I was visiting town one day and saw a protest in front of ASX, protestors and cameras present. Saw it on the news that night, very impressive lots of close in shots of bellowing protestors. In reality there were 20 of them and about 10 camera people. Everyone elese was walk by looking at them like they were idiots, yet the 20 get coverage on the news. When events are really big they pan back, but that rarely happens.
10
I read where the cancelled Chile talkfest has now been transferred to Spain. Can some one tell us what has happened since September’s New York talkfest that needs another grandiose meeting in Spain. Are things changing so rapidly that they have to burn all that extra evil av gas just 3 months later?
130
At least they will have solar power at night time !! 😉
30
They werent getting enough media coverage….so had to change tactics….
All is politics….
10
The Spain meeting is the real deal. The annual climate confab with 20,000 carbon burning delegates from almost 200 money seeking countries. The Sept show was the joke it became. Greta blasting the big dogs of green was great theatre. Spain is 11 days of green sweat, going no place fast, at great effort. It will get very little press.
10
September wasnt a COP, which is soooooo much more important. Besides how are you going to have an emergency unless you keep working at it?
10
Last week I had a revelation that glaciation was an energy intensive process requiring something like 120m of ocean water to be transported above land to be deposited as ice.
This week I move on to the RickWill theory of Real Global Warming and Cooling.
The linked chart sinks the present theory of global warming based on “greenhouse” gases. Every year the total water vapour column in the atmosphere rises and falls a substantial amount. In 2018 it went from 15mm to 22mm, a range of 5mm:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0UDTI7vapYTEQar
Here you will note that as the water vapour increased, the outgoing long wave radiation also increased. The regression coefficient at 77% indicates reasonable correlation. Clearly water vapour does not appear to inhibit the release of energy from the globe.
60
I need to show the importance of cloud in the ob=verall global energy balance.
We know that clouds reflect sunlight. This chart puts some numbers on that:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0bl2B46ioIcDZ1C
As you can see from the trend line, each 1% increase in cloud increases reflected solar by 3W/sq.m. The regression is 84% so well correlated.
On the other side of the energy equation, clouds inhibit the release of energy from the planet:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0IRyDIi8vnTC1Gt
Here we see that every 1% increase in clouds reduces OLR by 1.5W/sq.m.
So clouds are significant factors in the heat balance and strongly cooling by a ratio of 2 to 1.
40
Each year the orbital eccentricity and the distribution of water and land over the globe play a significant role in the weather we experience. At the present eccentricity the causes a variation in insolation of 22W/sq.m. The peak is in early January and the minimum is in early July.
At the beginning of the calendar year the sun views the earth as predominantly water:
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-7.1139159,-162.1671502,13497290m/data=!3m1!1e3
Mid year the sun views much more land:
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@20.7637339,51.428094,13525274m/data=!3m1!1e3
This understanding is important to grasp the drivers of annual weather:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0SUpd8m8TC9rPDi
This chart is useful to take a loop around the annual weather. The loop, as I have it, starts in August. The sea surface has reached its maximum temperature. The solar insolation is just starting to increase from it low point. Cloud cover is increasing and there is rapid loss of atmospheric water being deposited as water and ice on land and oceans. The OLR is reducing due to the increasing cloud cover and fall in SST. During the 4 months to end of December the atmosphere has lost 5mm of water. That 2500Gt of water returned to the surface as water or ice.
By December, earth’s big solar panel is lined up with the sun and the insolation is near its peak. For the next 3 months till March, 2500Gt of water will be taken aloft, removing heat from the oceans to limit the rise in SST to a mere 0.25C. A significant proportion of that energy input has gone into vaporising water.
By March we are on the 3rd phase of the cycle with the sun taking a view of the land in the northern hemisphere and heating it up. The SST drops as the suns focus shifts to the weak absorbers. The OLR rises rapidly because the temperature of the northern land masses is rising and they give up whatever energy they get through the day largely that night.
That gets to to June and the final stage to close the loop. Despite the insolation being at its minimum and the sun’s view of earth being significantly focused on land, there is a tiny kick up in SST till the peak in August. I speculate, yet to verify, that the tiny uptick in temperature is due to water, collected on land, being returned to the oceans.
So we are back at August with the highest annual SST ready to start the next year.
70
Having explained the annual weather loop, it is worth investigating what orbital eccentrity might do on a long term, climate scale.
This chart shows my comparison of the rate of change of eccentricity to glaciation over the previous 500k years:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0ONoV86hmuEpHGt
The blue line is the rate of change of eccentrity. Having an understanding of earth’s weather loop, caused me to speculate what would happen if each boreal summer was cooler than the one before; meaning the rate of change of eccentricity went negative. Shown on the chart by the black up arrows. With reducing heat input during the boreal summer, the slop of the weather loop from March to June would be less steep meaning the SST would drop more. At the point of glaciation we know that not all the water gets returned to the ocean. That would mean the top wing of the weather loop would be smaller as less heat taken in by the land would be returned to the oceans through streams.
Although I was staggered by this correlation, it is clearly not dead set perfect. There are two significant complexities that I have not yet assessed. The first is the change in earth’s axis tilt. That changes sun’s view of the oceans and land. The second, and most important, is the actually eccentrity because that drives the annual variation in insolation. At maximum eccentricity, the difference in insolation 50W/sq.m. At present the difference is 22W/sq.m. In 25kyr the eccentricity will be the lowest it has been for millions of years resulting in an annual difference in insolation of just 3W/sq.m.
My linked chart suggest we should be into our next glacial period but that may not eventuate because we are also heading toward an almost circular orbit. The near circular orbit results in a 4.5W/sq.m reduction in average insolation than at peak eccentricity as well as lower difference between minimum and maximum. Both factors could reduce the annual range of TPW resulting in less cloud formation. This would reduce both wings of the weather cycle and earths would remain in a balmy state rather than falling into glaciation.
60
Wanna see some “non-flammable” eucalypt koala habitat “with AGW fingerprints all over it”? Take a look at the pics in this SMH article.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/the-whole-place-went-up-fears-for-koala-colonies-as-nsw-fires-burn-on-20191031-p5366y.html?btis
This is the Lake Cathie fire ground. Take particular note of the stem density of the forest and of the incendiary fuel load still on the ground after the fire has passed. Imagine the jungle of fuel it must have been before the fire cleared a lot of it away. There is still enough there for another good inferno.
Any wild guesses as to why this forest burned like it did and killed so many koalas? This is apparently the non-flammable koala habitat we have heard so much about, which “has never burned before”. We know this because we are informed there is a lack of charcoal deposition in some holes dug and a 200 year settlers’ fire history for the area. These are the only flammable gum trees in Oz guaranteed not to burn. Oh I forgot — gumtrees that grow on soils derived from marine sediments also don’t burn because they are a different ecosystem. Right. Got it. Wouldn’t want to conflate them with the gumtrees growing on volcanic clays next door that do burn.
Pity it didn’t burn — regularly, at low intensity, then there’d still be plenty of live koalas. Misguided Green actions have consequences.
Then there is this piece in the local paper where one Lake Cathie resident expresses her dissatisfaction at fire fuel management of the surrounding bush before this fire.
https://www.portnews.com.au/story/6467375/time-for-a-conversation-about-fire-management/
Here’s the RFS district officer too: “With so much fuel on the ground, a coastal heath fire burns very hot, producing very significant amounts of smoke.”
The so-called long term fire records for Lake Cathie dating back to 1821 claimed by our own well-known commenter the other day are nothing of the sort either. For a start the first settler didn’t take up residence until 1830 at nearby Lake Innes. He stayed there until he went broke in 1853 when his convicts were taken away, then abandoned the place. Over the next 20 odd years it changed hands frequently, often with absentee owners and periods when it was unoccupied, until it was left permanently abandoned. The Lake Innes House was burnt down (OOPS!) in 1896 after being derelict for 25 years.
The alleged detailed record keeping of bushfires on the property was obviously non-existent given the random assortment of vagrant owners and the general lack of record keeping for the majority of those 200 years. To suggest that there are detailed bushfire records of the area is at best delusional, and at worst, something else.
As I previously pointed out, the nearby village of Lake Cathie didn’t exist either — the whole area still being referred to only as “Lake Innes, Port Macquarie” in 1933 and the site of the present village at the entrance to Cathie Creek being no more than a camping spot in coastal tea-tree scrub for fishing — fire record keeping for Lake Cathie prior to WWII is effectively NIL. Nobody reported on Lake Cathie because nobody cared about Lake Cathie since there was nothing there to care about but heathland and scrub. We do know that the village was well-developed by the 1970s when the surrounding National Park arrived or it wouldn’t have been allowed to be plonked in the middle of a flammable forest like it is.
The best that can be gleaned from reports of fires in the 20th century are vague references to the Port Macquarie District as a whole, mostly post WWII, which could be in any direction from the town, including Lake Cathie. 1951 and 1953 were particularly bad fire years to the west of the lakes.
The extent of the modern 1994 fire is obviously well known, but it is one fire and you cannot extrapolate the bushfire history of the area for 200 years from one fire event.
It gets better. In 1919 12 enthusiasts decided to drain Lake Cathie, and dug a trench 9 feet deep at the creek mouth. (Lake Innes drains into Lake Cathie.) The entrance to the sea had been blocked for years by fallen tea-trees and debris, which had caused water levels to back up throughout the drainage system into Lake Innes and flooded the surrounding countryside. So there had been higher than normal water levels and more widespread water in the surrounding area for years until the creek mouth was opened. I wonder if that would suppress fires?
In 1933 Lake Innes (the big lake) water level itself was further lowered by 5 feet 5 inches via a newly dug channel. As a result surrounding swamps also drained out and 6,000 acres of former lakebed were left high and dry for sale as farm land. Don’t try and tell me that removing an additional 6,000 acres of water from the immediate vicinity didn’t change local fire patterns. So any pre-1933 bushfire history pretty much becomes null and void anyway.
From 1937 the old Innes House property to the north of Lake Cathie was extensively logged. Gee, I wonder if that had the effect of suppressing bushfires back then before it was locked up as a nature reserve in the 70s/80s???
The forest that sprang up after the land was resumed for the game reserve in 1971 and the nature reserve in 1984, would bear little resemblance to what was there even 100 years ago. There have been multiple massive physical changes to the area which would seriously affect fire behaviour. To suggest that an area covered in open eucalypt forest and melaleuca heath will be perpetually fire-free is really having yourself on big-time. You need to learn your own local history PF before you go pointing the finger at make-believe causes. You were very lucky in 1994; your luck ran out this time. Darn that dastardly Klimate Change that we are all living through.
Reality has smacked you in the face, but you’re running around in denial. Just acknowledge that everything in Australia burns except for deep rainforest, most rocks, and beaches. The trick is to not let it develop into a firestorm-in-waiting, and that means not following the Greens policy of locking it up. Green delusion inevitably equals death to something or someone.
Where are your AGW fingerprints now PF?
180
Interesting, but not for general publication, because of the potential to induce “woke choke” and slow suffocation.
KK
60
The Biripi would have been burning that area regularly before loggers came. The koalas would have been hunted for their pelts earlier in the 20th century…but it takes a dog pack or a pack of green activists to really thin them out.
80
Port Macquarie has a long record, cutting in and out from 1840 but with plenty of interesting readings. From it we can see that this year’s drought is certainly exceptional. 2019 could well end up the driest calendar year known. Same further north here.
But we need to keep in mind that the five driest years for Port were, in order, 1994, 1915, 1994, 1991 and 1944. Further north here, going back to 1882 with not too many gaps, the driest years were, in order, 1902, 1915, 1995, 1909 and 1994.
Those are just numbers, and don’t tell the story of wind, combustibility etc. 1895 was so bad because there was a lot to burn and mid-year conditions just perfect for fire when combined with the right spring winds…which seem to have come!
A flood now might give me some ultra-late shoots but it looks likely that there will be no new moso at all this year. The grove will stay healthy even if it burns…but this is certainly frustrating. Here I am idly blogging when I should be out shooing hungry wallabies off my succulent shoots.
Being able to look back in the record helps me to…well, basically, to grow up. There is no masked avenger called Climate Change out to get me. It’s just Australia, and if I can’t roll with it I should roll up my swag.
100
whew, so much nonsense.
Its a great thing when someone with a keyboard and internet access can put me straight. After all only have 4 years of university education in ecology, worked in fire ecology and coastal ecology for 10 years, and have first hand experience as a Landcare volunteer of that area for the last 3 years. And have lived in the area for the last 27 years.
1. from 1821, records about fires were kept for the whole area – which you ignore.
2. Most of the landscape (apart from minor volcanic and metamorphic features from 7 million years ago) formed over the last 2 million years, But it is all sedimentary and is mostly sand with 20% organic and 5% fine clay.
3. To suggest that an area covered in open eucalypt forest and melaleuca heath will be perpetually fire-free is really having yourself on big-time. Species list https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/research-and-publications/publications-search/lake-innes-nature-reserve-plan-of-management (you will have to download it)
4. yes I was here for th 94 fire, which was one of 3 large fires around the town of port macquarie for that year.
5. I’m never denied that fire is not a feature of the landscape
6. There is no proof anywhere that fires were are feature or what is essentially a large peat bog. I refer you to the Lindfield Rd fire which is on going and has been for 3 months (to the north west of Port Macquarie
6. In 1933 Lake Innes (the big lake) water level itself was further lowered by 5 feet 5 inches via a newly dug channel. – no – it went the other way. Innes was lower than Cathie, and the creek.
So according to your rant, I know nothing.
This is the longest dry period that the coast around here has experienced. Because of that we have not had the fuel build up from fresh growth. In addition because this area has what is known as a closed canopy in parts, meaning that little undergrowth is seen. (you could look up mature Littoral Rainforest if you don’t mind some facts)
There is also a long record of above average temps, and this particular fire (and I am included the Lindfield road one here) is exceptionally early in the fire season, which was also proclaimed earlier. Peat rarely burns
You know nothing. You don’t want to learn anything. Do the research,
I reject utterly your attempt to tag me as deluded.
/I’m starting to understand Lance and Tony’s position on their area of professional expertise.
217
Its simple patricia, do back burning to reduce the ferocity of bush fires….dont burn, you wind up with the Kinglake fires in Melborne not that long ago. Its not “climate change”, its simpke fuel liad management.
Fuel load = proprtional to fire ferocity.
QED.
130
I heard on local radio mid north coast NSW an interview with the mayor who included in his commentary about the bushfires that an Aborigine elder told him that Koala and other creatures were not as vulnerable when traditional burning (seasonal and wind direction considered) was practised, the Aborigine said back then the bush was far more open and very hot fires were uncommon.
The radio talkback person told him that councils are the problem now, and misguided advisers who think that controlled burning damages what nature provided.
80
Both the Mayor, and the Acting Mayor use the female pronoun here.
We are talking about a variety of environments, this particular fire was burning through mostly peat and littoral rainforest.
If talkback ever solved anything, I’d like to know.
The facts are:
we are in a drought
we are facing a year of above average temps
the fire season started early and will go later than normal
This is an AGW signal.
118
In PF world, the ONLY thing that matters is tiny increase in atmospheric CO2
“This is an AGW signal.”
RUBBISH !!
There is no such thing as AGW. It is a myth, a fallacy.
You have shown that by your absolute inability to produce one iota of scientific proof.
What we have is NORMAL Australian climate variability
There has in FACT been no warming in Australia in 20 years
Stop blaming fires on your imaginary bogieman PF, makes you look like a religious ZEALOT of some sort.
70
Are you getting the RAIN yet, PF?
https://i.postimg.cc/kXH8N867/Rain.jpg
Is this also a signal of AGW 😉
70
officially we got none, and I’ve seen heavier dew
02
we live in Australia, its the weather
if yu are looking for signals, you will see signals, like Greta sees CO2
40
‘This is an AGW signal.’
No, its hype.
I claim all your dot points as a global cooling signal embedded in climate change.
11
Yep stupid greenies have too much sway. Id like to see them given a shovel and made work next to the volunters who are tryingbto protect everyone. Guarantee they will learn a thing or two.
Its just common sense – smaller regular burning avoids massive fires that are caused when fuel isnt regularly burnt off and reduced.
Basic physics.
80
So in OriginalSteve world, these things don’t matter
Soil moisture, Temperature, Season, Wind Strength and direction, Soil Type, Vegetation type, Fuel type (think about the difference between grass and trees), Aspect, level of the water table.
Also – I did link to the management plan for lake innes, and in that, if you had looked, you might have seen the fire plan.
Lastly, there was very little fuel load for this fire, this is mostly classified as littoral rainforest or swamp, and you can easily walk through them.
so how have you got to the stage where you can say QED, I see no maths, (which is where that particular statement comes from)
/there is no simple formula
012
No it is simple….fuel plus ignition source equals fire. The heat you get from a boiler is determined by fuel load.
Yes the conditions can affect ferocity, but try this as a simple experiment – go outside, build a fire with a coupke if kg of wood. Now using same wood source , build another with 5-10 kg of wood.
Then add a bit of air movemement, then add more.
I guaranteee you the fire with more fuel will burn hotter, especially with extra wind. Its ghe same principle the blacksmith forge uses.
Or thy the converse – make a tiny fire and loost how much heat you get out of it.
The other problem is thst fires produce thier own airflow and environments such that once they get going they become self sustaining.
Again, heat is governed by fuel for a given airflow. This is why firies remove ir restrict thd fuel load to restrict the fire.
You know all thus of course.
No backburning = hotter and worse fires.
QED.
Again.
40
Wet wood, dry wood, hardwood, softwood, old wood, green wood.
stupid
02
” there was very little fuel load for this fire”
So what burnt?????
Your cognitive non-functionality is at its peak today, PF !!
60
“whew, so much nonsense.”
AGAIN with the title to your post, PF
WE already KNOW that most of what you post will be MUCH NONSENSE.
“I reject utterly your attempt to tag me as deluded.”
LOL, we utterly reject your rejection of your delusional state of mind.
You are most definitely of a very deluded state of mind.
120
Come now Peter, your koalas didn’t die in littoral rainforest or swamp. You wouldn’t expect fuel in littoral rainforest in any case. The 3 SMH pics show open forest, choked with trees and still with excessive fuel. I looked at the Management Plan the other day. The question is, do they stick to it?
“little fuel load for this fire” — contradicts what the RFS district officer said, at least about the heathland.
And surveyors in 1933 didn’t know the difference between higher and lower, up and down? According to you their drainage would run backwards into Lake Innes.
Port Macquarie News and Hastings River Advocate (NSW : 1882 – 1950), Saturday 11 March 1933, page 4
LAKE INNES DRAINAGE.
… channel from Lake Innes to Cathie Creek . . . is intended to reduce the level of the Lake Innes water by 5 feet 5 inches, and it will be interesting to see the 6000 acres of water, which have been pent up in the Lake for so many years suddenly started on its journey to the sea.
That project was run by 2 surveyors by the way.
The rest of your response is equally enlightening.
You can wave your ecological academic credentials around as much as you like, but I remember that about a month ago you didn’t know the difference between rainforest and other plant communities. You tried to tell me that Swamp Mahogany and Boobialla (which name you also mangled) were rainforest at the Myall Lakes.
81
B
Don’t be suprised.
Recently I got to look at the “ecology” text for a current Agricultural science degree.
My comment was “Tell me when you have finally finished the exams for that unit and I’ll introduce you to the ecology they left out”
30
You wouldn’t mind 6,000 acres of water about now would you Ian? Not all at once obviously. What a waste of water to make land for a few subsistence dairies. The nearby Comboyne Plateau was cleared of rainforest a little earlier for the same reason (+ basalt soil + high rainfall) and they didn’t even have a road to cart their milk down to Wingham milk factory. They used to churn it into butter and take the butter down by pack horse every few days. The butter must have been choice after hanging around on the farm and then being in a pack-saddle for 3 or 4 days.
30
yep and they got it wrong.
just like you have.
For example, when you take a picture for publication what sort of picture do you take? You need to include size elements (people, trees), and distance elements, inside a forest is not optimal for such shots.
02
The Lake Innes – Lake Cathie cathement – search for that
Lake Cathie Lake Innes Estuary Management Plan – Search for that
These are both PDF’s so I can not provide a link
But they prove my point
The drainage canal was dug as a scheme to drain the lake for agriculture, it failed spectacularly. – You read the prospectus not the aftermath
02
It would appear we are both correct. The planned lake level drop was successful, the surveyors were correct, the land was exposed, but floodgates intended to stop the salt water from backing up through the new channel were never installed, allowing ingress of salt water into the formerly fresh water lake. Innes was a deeper lake rather than a lower lake. If it wasn’t higher then it never would have drained out to sea. What exists now is effectively the lower half of a formerly deeper perched lake minus its barrier bank. From 1935:
“This has enabled the salt water to reach Lake Innes, where its effect has been most noticeable. Innumerable freshwater catfish died in thousands; the reeds and water lilies, which grew flourishingly have been completely killed, and now fish make their way freely into the big water.”
So now the lake is effectively maintained at or near sea level, but at a lower level than in its former fresh water heyday. So, the lake shrank, more land is dry than back in Major Innes’ day, which was my point. That it was ruined as a fresh-water body is another issue.
My original comment was intended to challenge the notion that old fire records were still relevant for the lake area given substantial changes to the landscape, lake draining, cessation of logging etc. I still stand by that. I would also question how accurate any record from the early/mid19th century is going to be. Who exactly was running around recording bushfires accurately in those days? Which fires did they bother recording and in what areas? Who recorded fire boundaries? Bushfire records from the 1960s and 70s in the modern era of bushfire brigades are virtually non-existent, it’s all word of mouth from those who were there on the day, so I remain extremely dubious about the extent and value of records from 140 years earlier.
I stand by my comment that the koala sanctuary would inevitably burn. Geomorphology and fire history are largely irrelevant unless there is some particular feature like a gorge or scree that forms a fire barrier. Everything burns given time.
The koala hospital boss has reported scorch heights of 12m on the trees. That equates with my observations in the area many years ago where I estimated fire scars 30 to 40 feet high. You don’t get that without a lot of ground fuel. That scorching is coming from a ground heat source, not from the leaves above bursting into flame. I have no idea how high actual flame heights need to be to produce that level of trunk scorching, but obviously high enough to kill koalas on the limbs.
00
I can find no reference to floodgates, and why they were mysteriously not installed.
As to the height of the lake and the and the depth of the original drain, the 2 references I quoted have values of 1 foot, and 2 feet respectively. How this equates to 5 and ½ is just spin on the part of the developers. Currently the lake can be up to 2.5m above MSL. That depends on the estuary mouth, being closed and high rainfall. Any higher and it filters through the sand. Now 1.5m is very close to 5 and ½ feet, so that might be where that figure comes from. As to the lake depth, it is not very, both it and Lake Cathie average at 1.5 meters mean.
Now to the scorch marks, environments and Koalas.
You first have to understand that this environment and typically of coastal ecosystems is a mosaic of different vegetation communities, with pockets of schlorophyll, interspersed with melaleuca, boobialla etc. Thy type of vegetation appears to correlate more to drainage, although the amount of fine clay is also a factor. Koalas as you repeatedly point out do not spend much time in the swampy biomes but they are animals and will move at will between the various pockets of suitable habitat. Additionally the koala hospital has been releasing animals into that area for many years. As I originally posted we were looking for refugees, with the aim of preventing them becoming dog food
As to the scorch marks. Paperbarks and to a lesser extend swamp mahoganies will allow flames to scorch very high in the tree. In the areas I was in, and from what you can see from Ocean Drive and the ghost road there was little damage to the crowns, which is what you said. Watching the fires at night though, you could see areas where it was definitely into the treetops (although I could be wrong, but that is what my experience tells me). However, even in the most heavily burnt areas there are patches that escaped completely for no apparent reason. So, in short, you have a mosaic of burns as well. This means that one group of trees may have scorch marks up to 12 meters high, but right beside it, the same type of tree with no obvious burnt bits.
As to accuracy of records, as I said, you can dig a hole and look for ash. You can also look at the 2 reports I refer to, and finally you can look at the types of plants which grow in the more mature copses, which as I said are littoral rainforest. This type of biome is very susceptible to fire, as, in general it is an extreamly rare event in this type of community
http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/fc653a9e-5667-42ce-992d-a7ec08d5120a/files/draft-recovery-plan-littoral-rainforest.pdf Yes it can bun but it does not directly recover, you get banksia, accica etc instead. So if you have it, it is a good guide to the fact that there must have been no fires in that area.
These coastal ecosystems are very different to those found west of the Pacific Highway, but both are homes to koalas. Please do not generalise.
00
You keep on avoiding the question Peter.
Question: what organisation is the responsible land management authority for the area about which you profess to be an expert?
National Park? State? Federal?
Nature Reserve? LGA? State? Federal?
Crown Land? State? Federal?
State Forest?
Private farm land?
60
This is it here. NSW National Parks.
https://www.nationalparks.nsw.gov.au/visit-a-park/parks/lake-innes-nature-reserve
Unfortunately the map they provide covers up the actual lakes so you can’t see what we’re talking about. Google earth is better.
50
Hmmm…
Now you can see why Peter Fitzroy refuses to tell the whole story.
On this and CO2 too, it would seem.
What are you hiding Peter?
An,d more to the point (given that we know what you’re hiding) why?
20
If you go here you’ll see just how incompetent the National Parks administration is.
https://www.nationalparks.nsw.gov.au/visit-a-park/parks/lake-innes-nature-reserve/local-alerts
12 closures in just this one little area due to bushfire and six due to poor maintenance issues.
If the greenies would think as much about better managing these national resources as they think about instituting their green Utopia the country would be in much better shape.
00
Hi
Hopefully someone, maybe Jo, can head me in the right direction. A while back there was a post here that extended some of the capital city temperature records back further, and I’m especially interested in the one for Adelaide. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.
40
History is irrelevant, Neil: everyone knows *everywhere is twice as hot as everywhere else!
According to your record keepers, Adelaide’s max today will be a scorching 21˚C and by next weekend it’ll be *scorchinger on 19˚C max. So which scientist predicted Adelaide would soon have NZ’s chilly climate/temperature/weather? Good luck!
60
Neil Crafter:
The Australian (I think) BoM doesn’t like anything before 1910 (unless it furthers their cause).
http://guides.naa.gov.au/records-about-south-australia/chapter15/15.2.aspx might give you a starting point.
I might add that when my father was sent to SA in the 1940’s the old timers remembered the late Sir Charles Todd as “a stickler for doing things right”.
30
Perhaps you should take a screen shot of this before the BoM homogenizes it out of existence for you:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=023000&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
20
The, of course, there’s this:
1939 – 117.7°F
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/68534150
20
Thanks guys, but I saw it on a thread here, it wasn’t an external link.
20
Look, I know that I ‘rave on’ about how ineffective wind power really is, and my guess is that some of you, if not most of you think that I’ve made my point, but until the ‘average punter’ is told this, they are always going to believe that wind power can replace coal fired power.
Consider this.
The total Nameplate for wind power is currently 6702MW. That’s the equivalent of more than THREE large scale coal fired power plants. (2000MW+)
Their average yearly generated power is the same as from a Nameplate of 2010MW, (6702 X CF of 30%) the equivalent of ONE large scale coal fired power plant.
The current value of the largest operational wind plant in the Country, Macarthur is $1.4 Billion. (based on the most recent sale prices for 50% shares, two of them)
The biggest being proposed is Stockyard Hill Wind Plant, and while still only at the proposal stage is ‘mooted’ to cost around $1 Billion, and that will surely go up, as night follows day.
Okay them, going on Macarthur, with a Nameplate of 420MW, we have 6702MW total Nameplate, so, effectively 16 Macarthurs. and at $1.4 Billion, that means the cost in today’s dollars is $22.4 Billion.
And yet, the total output is around the same as for just ONE large scale coal fired power plant.
ONE new USC coal fired power plant (a HELE plant) will cost nothing even remotely close to that much money.
Then consider the coal fired plant will have a life span of 50 years while wind is hard pressed to make half of that, so now we have $45 BILLION.
Please, do not ever try and even attempt to tell me wind power is cheaper than coal fired power.
Tony.
310
If government built a water pipe line from Lake Argyle to eastern Australia, would solar and wind be sufficient to run the pumping stations?
30
Of course it could…
…..providing you install enough generating capacity in the right places, and have “staging” dams to allow storage accumulation for when the intermittent power is not available.
40
Repeated from an earlier unthreaded
“Some thoughts on using windmills to move water from Lake Argyle to the MDB (Moree for this example}
Lake Argyle 96 m above sea level
Moree 209 m
So need to raise water 113 m
Lake Argyle hydro discharge approx 1400 ML/day, which will run Ord 1 and 2, so assume 1000 ML/d for a reasonable irrigation patch (and as it is a good round number}
1000 ML = 219969248 imp gallons (from an on-line converter)
From a Southern Cross catalogue
25 foot wheel “R Pattern)windmill
10 inch pump approx 52900 gallons/day at 45 foot (13.7m) head
14 inch pump approx 104500 gallons/day at 23 foot (7.6 m) head
Thus to lift 1000 ML we need
10 inch pump 4158 mills for 13.7 m lift or
14 inch pump 2105 mills for 7.6 m lift
For the 113 m difference in height
10 inch pump 34296 mills
14 inch pump 29470 mills
Without minor problems of storage basins to cater for winds that aren’t always blowing and other natural vaguries
Meaning that a very experienced cat herder would be required to run that project.
And Southern Cross no longer make “R Pattern” mills”
40
Some help with calculation the potential cost
https://www.redpowermagazine.com/forums/topic/125534-green-new-deal-and-medicare-for-all/
20
I suspect the losses in 2000+ km of pipeline may be a little more than the power needed to raise the water 100 m !
40
I’m not disagreeing there.
That was just a preliminary look at what was involved. It looked fantastic enough not to try and go further, being as I reckon you’d want more than the area of the Ord watered at the other end.
Though a friend’s suggestion along wind farm lines:-
“So we should buy back Southern Cross
Hype up the scheme
Sell shares to the all the punters we can find
And pick a country to retire to above sea level rise and no extraction treaty “
50
I don’t know what that means.
But it sounds funny.
KK 🙂
30
Repetition and reminders in such an important matter are needful. Also, someone coming late may miss your earlier contributions.
We have to hunt down these white elephants before their globster breeders hunt us down. They have just about every button-pusher network and refuse news outlet at their disposal…but we have the simple commonsense of your sums.
90
And note how the
supply of power is the altruism behind all of the wind power sagapursuit of money is the only reason for the wind power saga.Macarthur Wind.
Original Cost – Around $1 Billion. (Half of that was granted in free money to them up front)
So we had Two owners each with a 50% ownership AGL and Meridian Energy when the wind plant became operational in 2013, having being originally proposed in 2004.
Meridian Energy sold their half share in that same year 2013 to Malakoff (Malaysia) for $659 Million. Windfall profit of $409 Million. Malakoff sold that same half share to AMP less than a week ago now for $880 Million. Windfall profit of $229 Million.
AGL – so $250 Million of their money. in 2015, they sold their half share to NZ Morrison Co for $532. Windfall profit of $282 Million.
Both owners have AGL operate the plant. Macarthur wind farm currently sells its generation output to AGL energy under a fixed-price power purchase agreement that will last until 2038. AGL also retain all the renewable energy certificates and credits.
So, AGL the operator sells its set price power to AGL’s retailing arm who bid it on the AEMO, and get the average price for all power.
During the period of the sale, Macarthur wind plant closed down back to zero output for 50 hours, the largest source of wind/solar power from a single plant in the whole of Australia, just arbitrarily stopped generating power.
Don’t tell me this renewable source of power generation is an ethical altruistic cheap form of delivering power.
Like everything associated with renewable power, it’s just about the money.
AMP grabs half share of Macarthur wind farm, still Australia’s biggest (the article from Renew Economy)
Tony.
170
Oh yes, moso, the history record is SO-O-O-oh important, especially when context is so-oh-down-the-memory-hole, circa Big Bro’ 1984, de trop. .. Tony’s data matters.
40
Another nail in the climate coffin, this one being magnetic
https://www.iceagenow.info/validating-my-contention-that-magnetic-excursions-trigger-extinctions/
Obvious that changing magnetism of the earth causes major disruptions. Note the dates in this.
Someone on here posted a video link that suggested early (aboriginals) some 30000 years ago annihilated the mega fauna of Australia (my thoughts are that was only a tiny part), one thing they didnt mention was the reversals and excursions that occurred at that time..They went on to say at the end that man is ‘now affecting species more than ever with….klimatre change’..
70
care about your biggest trade partner, do you? o sure
11-2-19 (RADIO FREE ASIA) Male Han Chinese “relatives” assigned to monitor the homes of Uyghur families in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) regularly sleep in the same beds as the wives of men detained in the region’s internment camps, according to sources who have overseen the forced stayovers. https://www.wnd.com/2019/11/male-chinese-relatives-placed-uyghur-homes-co-sleep-female-hosts/
30
The Chinese do love a good autnonmous zone name, although they rarely seem to be autonomous
20
Another bizarre comment from a 4 year university graduate of Eco Logy.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/11/weekend-unthreaded-284/#comment-2214511
The PPP# has been in effect for the last 2,000 years but the university qualifed eco logist appears unaware of the geological origins of the creation of that local peat bog.
On the other matter of credibility, there is none.
Why would the writer imagine that anybody else on this blog would take anything he writes seriously.
Despite all that most people here would hope that you can “transition” out of the highly emotional condition associated with the Global Warming religion at a measured pace so as not to induce “Woke Choke” which if left untreated can be very damaging.
# Peat Production Process.
80
More.
“This is an AGW signal”.
Does this comment send a signal that the local fire is of much less importance than “proving” by exclamation that man made CO2 induced Climate Change is real.
This whole situation is unreal.
A denial of Eco reality.
KK
40
The most important part in any cagw piece of science, the link.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/11/weekend-unthreaded-284/#comment-2214565
10
““This is an AGW signal”.”
ONLY in his warped little mind.
Everyone else knows its just normal Australian climate variability.
Large mass of RAIN heading across the east coast of NSW, Hunter region
Looks like Port might get some of it too
https://i.postimg.cc/kXH8N867/Rain.jpg
This MUST BE an AGW signal !! 😉
40
You can’t teach an old dog anything. And if you could it would be pointless.
30
If you look closely its possible to see how the Gleissberg cycle disrupts ENSO behaviour.
https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/217289
10
Here’s hoping.
Perhaps, we have reached a new stage.
There’s been lots of moderation lately.
Are we moving forward?
🙂
20
Vince Whirlwind was given a yellow card, while Fitz and Leaf have settled down to playing their usual game.
Solar Cycle 25 may have begun.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/01/quiet-sun-sets-new-record-for-spotless-days/
20
Perhaps the recent involvement of vw in the blog has made a difference but the blog has become very moderate in its approach to information dissemination.
Perhaps blog clogging will be reduced.
Perhaps.
KK
30
Blog Clogging.
There is a thing called the Fast Forward button, and I often use it.
Problem is that some of the replies are worth the trouble to read the whole (otherwise boring) thread.
30
We need at least half a dozen ‘cloggers’ to stimulate debate and test our theories.
For example, on the other thread vw got me thinking and talking to myself after he left the room, but I discovered that after a Gleissberg Minimum there is around 15 years where ENSO acts out of phase.
This out of character behaviour strikes me as an internal dynamic in search of equilibrium.
10
I reckon this image that they have used here is fake.
This smacks to me of the ultimate hypocrisy of the UN.
This UN talking head has had all the advantages of living in the Developed World, and he has the hide to tell those in the Developing World ….. “Sorry, this is not for you.”
Who would have thought this was on the ABC website
UN chief Antonio Guterres warns Asia to quit ‘addiction’ to coal as climate change threatens region
Tony.
90
And not once did the Portuguese Pontificator mention the Maldives – the cuckoo in the climate mine – nor its drowned airports and sunken resorts and fleeing refugees and virtual ‘disappearance’ from warmongers’ scripts, speeches, articles, rants. Could it be because it’s still there, 6 feet above sea level, pleasantly idyllic, crowded with escapees from cold climates enjoying the tropical breeze and tepid water? Via your link, Tony – eek! – imagine that:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-03/greta-thunberg-seeks-lift-back-across-atlantic-to-climate-meet/11667158
30
Surely mum and dad have accumulated enough of other peoples money to just pay the girls fare by now, surely they dont need more, again.
30
You’d think so. Plus with her circle of new-found friends, eg. Arnie, Leo, Jane, the Red-Shields, surely one of those
filthy dirty white capitalistwoke millionaires has a spare ten grand they could offer the homeless, wandering, chosen prophet-child of the Agenda (and her support crew).“Greta Thunberg mocked her detractors last night by dressing as herself for Halloween – saying she terrifies her critics. The teenage activist said she scared ‘a bunch of angry climate crisis deniers’ without having to dress up”.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7638519/Greta-Thunberg-trolls-angry-climate-crisis-deniers-Halloween.html
Delusions of grandeur can now be added to her ever-growing list of ‘super powers’.
10
It never stops: here it is casting aspersions on the female species.
As it reads; O.K., so they said that, but they Are women, so let’s not give it too much credit.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/11/weekend-unthreaded-284/#comment-2214565
KK
10
“FAT GREEN PIGS-AND THE ERA BEFORE COAL”
https://www.pickeringpost.com/vivforbes/13411/green-pigs-suck-subsidies-in-the-era-before-coal/
40
When I visited the above mentioned historic steam rally I was horrified to observe a wind subsidy farm under construction in the area. The appearance of the once-beautiful countryside was destroyed and it will get even worse when finished as there will be 149 windmills.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockyard_Hill_Wind_Farm?wprov=sfla1
50
Thanks David,
I think I have seen that to.
Horrifying and Destructive and VictoriaStan and Scott Morrison.
On the other subject.
Did you enjoy the Lake Goldsmith Steam Rally?
Was there anything interesting about Threshing?
30
Trumping!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/11/president-trump-trolls-pelosi-with-epic-meme-of-pelosi-vs-hero-military-dog-conan/
“Pelosi “I wasn’t briefed”. Conan “I was”
30
More swearing on the “Hypocritical Oath”
“Private Jet Sales Soar as Elites Urge Holidaymakers to Stop Flying”
https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2019/11/03/private-jet-sales-soar-as-other-flyers-urged-to-stay-at-home/
20
Can I claim a record?
IIRC that is 6 mods in one day.
10
Oops! Might be 7
20
Is this being triggered on posts with links to overseas sources?
10
I have noticed that many organisations are renaming themselves but are leaving off what the organisation is.(Association, Society) Examples: The Australian Institute of Engineers is now Engineers Australia. The Canine Association of WA is now Dogs West. The Builing Commission is now Building and Energy. The Oral History Association of Australia is now Oral History of Australia. I have thought it may be an Alinsky derivative to change the language so as lessen the authenticity of the organisation. Can I have some comments on this phenomen?
20
Yes I think the new names do lessen the authenticity of the organisation.
I think it means that the responsible committees do not have any clear idea of their purpose or direction!
30
It seems that ALL the major parties in QLD are proposing to impliment a version of the “revised Bradfield” water scheme…as a key policy item in the lead up to next years state election.
https://southburnett.com.au/news2/2019/11/02/lnp-unveils-new-bradfield-scheme/
30
Congratulations Chad, I accept they have found the ‘political will’ and of course gravity-fed tunnels are a great advance.
30
gravity-fed tunnels are a great advance.
Rather boring, though.
30
**chuckle**
20
Depends who’s boring the tunnel I guess. Musk’s Boring Company says it can build commercial turn key tunnels at a fraction of the actual cost of Brisbane’s Clem 7.
The tolls will be cheap but only auto drive will be allowed to use them. I’m 90% sure this guy is all pith and wind, but many billions borrowed haven’t broken him yet.
00
Remember, these are nnouncements from politicians in an election run up.
As such, i hold little expectations of anything beyond expensive “studdies” and reports .
Once it rains again, and QLD has another flood, this will be forgotten again. !
20
Classic “Utopia” material..
10
Hmm ? ..quote went AWOL ?
20
A lot of federal monies is being splashed about, so they could fast track this bipartisan dream.
Infrastructure spending is imperative at the moment.
00
Just watching “The Block” tonight (only night I watch it), and the designer’s comments, saying that the solar systems and small Tesla Powerwall will be required to recharge the EVs every evening.
A quick calculation, based on 20,000 kms a year, means 383 kms/week, or about a full car charge, I presume 100 KWh, which is 14 kWh every night. Will somebody please explain how you get that from a small Powerwall?
40
I think it would be OK – if your house didn’t consume any power during the day ( which it will of course ). Most houses use about 15-20KwH/day.
This also means the solar panels have to produce the load needed by the house + enough capacity to charge the powerwall battery.
And most lithium batteries shouldn’t really be discharged under 50%, which limits your capacity or time taken to charge the car, even more.
Further reading https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/discharge_characteristics_li
Based on the page ( above ) after 1000 usage cycles, battery capacity is down 20%.
Dont also forget the reality distorting added ingredient in all renewables…… of fairy dust and unicorns….
20
regardless of what the manufacturer does in regard to managing the batteries operating range you still need to pump in roughly the estimated kWhs. The Powerwall will make a contribution, but the show inference is that it all covered.
10
Yes, that was my point.
10
The Powerwall 2 is a 13.5 kWh capacity unit. ..So it “might” be able to recharge the car sufficiently ? ..but they had better not expect to use much power in the house after sunset , or before sunrise ( 6pm – 9am ) !…EG, cooking, heating, AC, lighting,
Unfortunately that “dark” period covers both the am and pm demand peak when a large proportion of the battery capacity would normally be needed for domestic use.
And the Solar system ?.. it is going to need to provide 30+ kWh per day to keep the battery charged and supply domestic usage.
Find an honest Solar guy who can tell you how many panels are needed to do that every day, all year round ?..worst case , a wet july week in Melbourne !
00
How big is the Powerwall 2? The units fitted to the garage walls weren’t that big.
00
If the Powerwall units use the latest Panasonic batteries, then I believe that with careful control of the charge and discharge cycles, their lifetimes should be a lot more. The previous Panasonic battery was specified to 1500 discharge cycles worst case, but I’ve never seen the specs for the Tesla Panasonic battery.
10
Not many people have Graeme..
I believe the PW2 warranty is basicly 10 yrs at better than 70% capacity.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/19/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-powerwall-2-2019-edition/
00
Sorry, forgot to post this..
00
Thanks for the Powerwall 2 info Chad. Interesting. Looks similar to the ones I saw on the show. Note that they 100% discharge – not something I would recommend.
Wouldn’t install one though. Just about to start looking at whether I add solar or not for this coming summer.
00
The “100% discharge” is only against the quoted 13.5 kWh capacity.
In reality their actual cell capacity is more…likely another kWh or so.
Somewhere i have seen the details of construction..i will try to dig them out.
Make sure you look very closely at the real peracticality of solar.
Roof space
Roof alignment to sun
Any shading ..especially in winter when the sun is very low near the horizon.
Be sure to have a system with micro inverters
Most states limit you to a max of 5 kW inverter capacity, so dont fall for a sales pitch for a 8-10 kW panel deal !
And..remember , you will need to stay with this system for 8-10 yrs at least to see any break even…so dont plan on moving !
00
Not a lot of roof space Chad as it’s a townhouse, but the panels can face north. Was only thinking about a 3kW system as I don’t use the air con in winter, only a few months in summer. No shading as it’s double storey in a complex so no big trees. Also have to consider occasional maintenance costs as it would be too high up for me to get at it. Also going to obtain opportunity costs from my financial adviser.
Have delayed for a year so that I have one full year of power consumption to work with. Don’t plan on shifting, so will be looking at 10-15 years of operation to recover my outlay.
Will do the figures then present the results here for further comment before I commit.
10
I
sometimesthink EV enthusiasts are pretty thick. I got involved in a thread where someone was saying how cheap he could charge his car. He has so much excess solar that he gets a few hundred credit every qtr.So this guy thinks it’s good value to forego his 44c [?] FIT to run his EV. Even with a more normal 9c FIT, if he uses his PV output in his car he pays full retail for household usage. I sure as ‘ell ain’t going to be a power miser to run a stinkin sparky car.
00
Britain is ahead of you Aussies. We’ve just approved a new coal mine:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/03/government-under-fire-after-approval-of-new-coal-mine-in-cumbria
How long has The Guardian been calling Global Warming, Global Heating? What comes next? Global Incineration?
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just for exports to Germany?
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No, it’s for coking coal.
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But we banned fracking on the same day:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/03/fracking-shale-gas-scientists-tories-earthquake
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Dont worry…once things go to pot, the greenies will be shoved to one side or offered accommodation at her Majs pleasure if they continue to get in the way of normal life.
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The Canadians are getting quite active:
Rebel News
United We Roll
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You’d better be right OriginalSteve because if government doesn’t get a grip on these saboteurs there’ll be outbreaks of vigilantism.
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Already happening in Britain:
Extinction Rebellion protesters dragged from Tube train roof
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The mistake the XR people make is that they think most people agree with them. They are just beginning to learn that we don’t.
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Excellent leading article in this week’s Spectator Australia saying what must be said about the CEFC billion dollar grant and associated ScoMo treachery.
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Is anyone aware why Peta Credlin spends as much time off camera as on? It is becoming the Chris Smith show. I hope she is well.
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I’ve just heard Sir David King, former Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government, on BBC Radio 4. He said greenhouse gases are now at 410 ppm and then corrected it to 500 ppm “if you include all of them”. I’d guess that the extra 90 ppm includes methane and nitrous oxide but does it include water vapour? Does anybody have figures for water vapour?
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https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Water_vapour
500ppm for greenhouse gases does not include water vapour.
2% = 20,000ppm
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Thanks Peter, that’s very useful.
Energy Education says: “Human activities do not increase the overall water vapour content in the atmosphere”.
I question this. If we burn hydrocarbons we get both carbon dioxide and water vapour.
Why do the warmists accept water vapour as a greenhouse gas when it arises as a positive feedback but not when it arises from burning hydrogen?
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“Why do the warmists accept water vapour as a greenhouse gas when it arises as a positive feedback but not when it arises from burning hydrogen?” asks Carp.
There’s an old journalist’s saying, “never let the truth get in the way of a good story” and this is the creed of your warmist. Simple really.
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Check this out
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/04/irish-pm-leo-varadkar-under-fire-for-extolling-benefits-of-climate-crisis
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Poor devil of a taoiseach is trying to introduce common sense into the Irish climate madhouse; one can only hope that he has the resolve to keep at it. Thanks Rod McLaughlin for posting this as I’d not have entered the Guardian website without your prompting.
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From https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2019/10/21/northern-peatlands-double-carbon/
So peat lands can store carbon for thousands of years — unless it’s mined and burned for fuel. Understanding how much carbon peatlands hold is important for predicting their impact on the atmospheric CO2 levels in the future.
Yet more known unknowns and not properly accounted for in carbon deposits and the carbon cycle.
I wonder when researchers will find that forests are net accumulators of carbon by laying-down humus and plant rot that build up the forest soil base, and will also take a considerable time to release all its stored carbon (unless the forest burns first!)
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Like it, especially the last paragraph.
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I was of the understanding that the classis “Carbon Cycle” estimates included all land and ocean based carbon sinks and sources. IE all forna Co2 take uo via photosysnthisis, and emissions from decay.
A bigger peat source than previously assumed is no more significant than there being more coal than we thought ?
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Trump Admin Puts America First Into Action on Global Warming
Promises made. Promises kept. President Donald J. Trump’s White House officially notified the United Nations that the United States will officially withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. Monday marked the first day the U.S. could officially declare whether or not it was staying in the mulit-nation agreement to combat climate change. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sent the U.N. a formal letter on Monday afternoon.
“In international climate discussions, we will continue to offer a realistic and pragmatic model – backed by a record of real world results – showing innovation and open markets lead to greater prosperity, fewer emissions, and more secure sources of energy,” Pompeo said in the withdrawal letter. “We will continue to work with our global partners to enhance resilience to the impacts of climate change and prepare for and respond to natural disasters.”
The withdrawal will officially take place after a one-year waiting period, per agreement rules. State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus also tweeted that, “Today under @SecPompeo’s leadership, the State Department begins the formal process of withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. The U.S. will continue to assist our partners to reduce emissions, protect natural resources, increase resilience & respond to natural disasters.”
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Great,..
but, if they change their mind, (or POTUS) , they can get back in with a simple phone call !
…and a large cheque !
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As plants etc “ROT” , they release much of the carbon as CO2 back into the atmosphere.
You need specific , unique, conditions to “lock in” the carbon to form Peat, Coal, Oil etc
That is not a common situation.
This is basic Carbon Cycle stuff.
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