JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Not wishing to be alarmist, a cold air outbreak is not an anomaly.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/coldest-summer-day-on-record/530627
100
Or to put it another way, sudden stratospheric warming is no longer a rarity.
70
It might not be an anomaly, but it sure is a pain rear. We’ve had nothing but freezing cold and wet weather in South Gippsland for nearly a week. Is Al Gore in Victoristan?
120
And the blizzards….speek not thee of the blizzards
I myself of the massive carbon sink….sequestered and all by massive coal deposits here 🙂
20
..The Latrobe valley.
20
Sequestered hot air is a welcome breeze here
20
and yet the article you link has a statistically identical temperature in 2006 after which your long hoped for cooling trend did not eventuate.
Interesting, assuming the reporting is correct, that Thredbo had a maximum of -1.0 and yet did not drop below -4.0. For 24 hours, day and night, it barely changed.
111
Leaf we are looking at climate change, its like watching paint dry.
Ignoring temperatures for the moment, this caught my eye.
‘This week’s record-breaking cold outbreak occurred because the belt of westerly winds that flow between Australia and Antarctica was positioned further north than usual for this time of year.’
Note how they avoid talking about the blocking high pressure or wayward jetstream, which are indicative of a global cooling pattern.
110
wayward? You make it sound like it is off on its own adventure.
112
We could call it meridional or a meandering jetstream, possibly a random walk.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-223.40,-46.71,803/loc=126.010,-48.763
70
click on earth then go to 70HPa level gives you a better idea on path of any Jetstream. It really hooks around and goes practically back on itself over Tassie.
60
70 hPa = 57,945 ft
Which is actually above the altitude of the tropopause at the equator, or about 10,000 feet above the altitude of the top of the sub-tropical Jetstream flow. So 70 hPc is displaying the circulation at the very bottom of the stratosphere, for a mid-latitude display zone.
The very top of the sub-tropical Jetstream fades out above 100 hPa = 51,806 ft during summer. You need to look no higher than about 150 hPa (45,000 ft) to see the upper jetstream flow clearly, and no lower than about 400 hPa (24,000 ft) to clearly see the lowest parts of it.
130
Gordo, your remarks triggered me to go and look at the southern hemisphere summer jetstream to see if there were any anomalous jetstream behaviors at present, as I’d only been checking the Winter hemisphere for higher wind speeds so far. So hadn’t bothered with checking the southern-hemisphere because during Summer the jetstream normally slows down a lot and shrinks in area, and restricts to colder higher mid-latitudes below about 25 degrees south. The sub-tropical jetstream normally reaches into the mid-tropics during Winter to about 15 degrees South, but tends to become subtropical during Summer, reaching to about 25 degrees south.
So was very surprised to find the wind speeds and latitudes of the subtropical jet currently are much closer to an early-Winter speed and pattern than to an early-Summer speed-range and pattern. The wind speeds I foun, spread right through the run duration and are close to or else exceed the fastest jet wind speeds I’d previously seen during Winter (well, until about 10 days ago when I began to notice higher jet speeds in the NH). This is unexpected and unusual, take a look:
4th Dec – SE Africa @ 34,000 ft and 336-km/h
https://i.ibb.co/5YjvGbD/a-2019-12-04-SE-Africa-4th-Dec-34-000-ft-336-kmh.png
11th Dec – SW Australia @ 39,000 ft and 333 km/h (1 week later)
https://i.ibb.co/PDjqM6G/b-2019-12-04-SW-Australia-11th-Dec-39-000-ft-333-kmh.png
4th Dec – SE Africa @ 30,000 ft and 334 km/h. Note that the speed is up further down in the atmosphere in Summer as well.
https://i.ibb.co/c6jHgSc/c-2019-12-04-SE-Africa-4th-Dec-30-000-ft-334-kmh.png
And this screamer:
13th Dec – East Africa @ 39,000 ft and 343 km/h. This is faster than I’ve seen in the southern-hemisphere even during full winter. It’s only 15 km/h slower than the Feb 2019 Winter record of 358 km/h in the USA. And its mid December in the Southern hemisphere … just wow.
https://i.ibb.co/y6WZjzT/d-2019-12-04-E-Africa-13th-Dec-39-000-ft-and-343-kmh.png
That’s very surprising – stunning! I’ve never seen wind speeds anything like this in a Summer Jetstream. The highest speeds are typically down around 250 km/h during Summer, and they normally peak further to the South. And the altitude range of the fastest flows are also currently thicker than normal for a Summer season.
120
BTW, regarding that last link above the jet kicking-up over VIC and NSW in that image leads to a prediction of more snow falls over the NSW Alps between the 12th and 13th of Dec.
Keep your snow-bunnies warm.
100
Oops, I got the first link above labeled wrongly, it’s the fastest one of all, it should say:
4th Dec – SE Africa @ 34,000 ft and 346-km/h
https://i.ibb.co/5YjvGbD/a-2019-12-04-SE-Africa-4th-Dec-34-000-ft-336-kmh.png
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I had been wondering lately why the Southern Ocean still seemed to be staying rather stormy into Summer. Then last night I noticed that the Antarctic ice-cap temperatures were till pegging at around -35 to -40 C when it’s usually ‘warmed’ to around -20 to -25 C as the Summer arrives. So it still hasn’t really ‘warmed’ much out of the winter’s -60 C range yet. Looks as if Summer’s reticent to arrive in Antarctica this Summer.
Current Surface Pressure and storms within the Southern Ocean – This is more like an early-Winter ocean pattern for storms, rather than an early-Summer quieter and calmer pattern.
https://i.ibb.co/3zNGRvv/e-2019-12-04-Southern-Ocean-Surface-Pressure-Storms-4th-Dec.png
And this is why, the southern icecap still retains its early-spring like temperature level.
https://i.ibb.co/1ZzSbMh/f-2019-12-04-Southern-Ice-Cap-Temperature-8th-Dec.png
This may be the perfect time for another Chris Turney “Ship-‘O-Fools” V2.0 rehash so that we can have another 2-week long global-gawf.
(jus sayin’)
120
Thanks for that cycles.
31
Very interesting WX. I have looked for information on the SSW this year and there was almost nothing. Almost no updates about whether it had ended, was ongoing, had any impact. Nada. I checked at nullschool at 10hPa, and sometimes there was a split jetstream, and sometimes the middle fast flow was 300+km and around -5C. That was late Oct early Nov. Is that SSW type conditions?
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Wish I could help Jo, I’ve looked at SSW occurrence, location, prevalence for northern hemisphere but only because Danes and Scandinavians monitor it, but have not looked into southern-hem data due to the lack.
I don’t know what’s triggering the change in jetstream strength and thickness in summer. I’m even more surprised by this than the NH speed acceleration and lower altitude core path.
I would have thought widespread min temps of -42 C in Summer is not normal for Antarctica on the 4th of Dec, given we’re 18 days out from the southern solstice and the max angle of incidence of Sun to the pole is now about 20 degrees at the middle of a very long day and not even full dark anymore.
The ice sheet is currently covered by a continent-sized High that fades to a neutral atmospheric-pressure on about the 12th of Dec, so again there is sustained sinking polar air over a large area, keeping the high elevation icesheet area colder for longer. The acceleration of the sub-tropical jet implies cooler than normal air is in the high mid-latitude region as well.
To me it looks like added cooling due to sustained slowly sinking air coming from polar ~70 hPa level area. Maybe SSW is implicated, can’t see how yet.
Alternatively, this is more prosaic, such as there’s a more laminar horizontal flow (less vertical convection) in the near polar troposphere (due slow cooling), that’s allowing the tropopause to slowly sink and thus drags the whole thermal profile of the polar troposphere lower, as it sinks (i.e. it gets colder at the surface). As it sinks the excess colder polar air is then squished symmetrically outward into the lower and middle level mid-lats, thus cooling and lowering the pressure of lows there, making them stormier than normal, thus accelerating the Summer jetstream as well, due to the resulting enhanced temp and pressure difference with respect to the mid-latitude Highs.
So in both hemispheres it ‘appears’ (to me) the polar tropopause level must be sinking slowly lower, to account for the sustained surface cooling, and the lower Lows pushing up the jetstream speed — and thus stronger storm winds, and (a cooling) trade wind re-expansion to come into the tropics.
Looks like a cooling mechanism to me, just wondering how long it lasts. Would it still be operating into late Summer? We may soon find out.
And will cooler air from the 70 hPa level slowly sink into the upper polar troposphere, as the polar-stratosphere above slowly cools? If so, there’s a potential sustained polar and mid-lat cooling mechanism. So what slowly cools the stratosphere then? Need to find relevant data and experts.
70
Stephen Wilde thinks it might have something to do with ozone.
‘As I have been saying for some years now the data shows that, with the quieter sun, ozone in the lower stratosphere is increasing above 45km and above the poles but decreasing below 45km and over the equator.’
00
I’ve read Stephen Wilde’s views a few years back, I’ll go over them to see if they gel with what’s being forecast (like why in both hemisphere’s, simultaneously?).
I find the claim that BOM can predict antarctic SSWs 3 weeks in advance very doubtful.
BOM can’t even predict a cyclone’s path, location, timing and intensity level accurately enough to issue credible 3-hour warnings, or a 24 hour cyclone-watch level warning. But several external international organisations manage to accurately forecast and report Australian cyclones in detail, much more competently, without apparent stress or problems.
Plug “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” into BOM’s search function and you get the Sept 11th forecast but nothing more about it. I suspect we’ve heard nothing more from BOM about their prediction for a major antarctic SSW, as the observations reveal their forecast projection was one big cumulative-error, i.e. Garbage In = Garbage Out.
Perhaps if the temperature ‘data’ inputs to their SSW model were more accurate and representative of reality, i.e. weren’t hopelessly politicized ideological garbage, then the cumulative-errors, accumulating over three weeks of iteration, would not have diverged so much from observations?
If BOM claims (despite their deafening silence) to have succeeded with that forecast they should unambiguously publish the detailed formal forecast, and the detailed observations 3-weeks later, which substantiates their forecasting claims. Lots of people would like to see that.
Else, they should be up-front and say they were wrong, and likewise provide detailed forecast and observations evidence showing just how wrong they were, so this can be analysed and such gross mistakes learned from. And does anyone think BOM would refrain from clucking about a successful 3-weeks forecast of a major SSW at the ABC, to point-out that their forecast was verified? Nope.
Can the Scandinavians or Canadians, who pay much more attention to SSWs, also predict them 3-weeks in advance? Nope! The best WX models available predict SSWs with useful confidence about a week in advance. So I’d say BOM’s gone quiet on that major SSW forecast to downplay the former hubris, and the latter failure.
Well were there actually, “… above-average spring temperatures …”? Nope.
Apart from Australia being a very big place, the answer is clearly, NO. The Spring was cooler than normal and we’re seeing continued snowfalls in VIC and NSW right into the first two weeks Summer. So that major forecast aspect is clearly completely wrong and it’s the core of BOM’s claim, re effects on Australia of the predicted (but unsubstantiated) major mid-spring Antarctic SSW. They published their forecast claim on the 11th of Sept, three weeks later is the beginning of October, it’s snowing into mid-December.
The impression I get is that due the lack of BOM observational evidence supporting their claim, it appears BOM made an incorrect but highly-publicized forecast that has not been equally honestly and openly recanted in public to set the record straight and remove resulting confusion, as they properly should have, but instead quietly swept it under the carpet and just walked away hoping no one would really notice.
60
Another aspect of BOM’s Sept 11th SSW claims. The BOM article states:
This has a major logical and factual problem.
Winter ozone depletion usually begins to be seen in mid-June to early July, and is fully complete by about mid-September, and replacement of depleted ozone is underway by October as the Sun’s photons return. So here’s BOM fishing about on the 11th of Sept, apparently looking for a rationale to explain why the ozone ‘hole’ was so amazingly weak from June to 11th of Sept.
Except for one vital fact, the article says near to its top, this:
So BOM claims to have SSW observations beginning right at the end of August, when an SSW begins within their forecast on the 30th of August, which they claim will get much stronger though all of September. Which is nonsense, as SSWs don’t do that, they last a few days then dissipate [and they claimed effects to follow, through Jan 2020 no less which also haven’t panned-out].
But there’s a serious logic problem with the BOM ‘explanation’ for a weak ozone depletion (i.e. a post-facto revisionist excuse for the lack of significant ozone depletion in the prior months), namely, the ozone depletion process normally begins in June. And it steadily depletes until mid September. So for almost 2.5 months before BOMs SSW claim, the depletion should have been advancing steadily in the usual way.
But it was an extraordinarily weak ozone depletion this year, limited in area, and showed up much later than normal. The lowest ozone depletion level I personally saw forecast was a measly drop to 187 DU (above ~220 DU is regarded as no depletion). To see how significant a smaller drop to just 187 DU is look at this time-series graph since 1980:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/Min_ozone.jpg/777px-Min_ozone.jpg
Effectively it meast the ozone hole almost completely disappeared, for the first time since the early 1980s. Something really changed in the lower stratosphere this year, along with record jet stream speeds in the troposphere since at least as far back as February 2019 (which was probably triggered by stratospheric changes last NH winter).
So when the lower stratosphere ozone didn’t deplete as it should have in June through early Sept, as the stratosphere normally becomes iced-up, BOM piped-up on the 11th of Sept and said an SSW may prevent annual ozone depletion this year!
Wot? Most of the depletion should have already occurred down to at least 150 DU before the 30th of August’s claimed SSW onset. So an SSW at that point could have made very little difference to the final DU level lows during 2019’s winter and early-Spring.
This very much looks like BOM is making a post-facto ad-hoc 20-20 hindsight excuse, for why there was nothing like the usual ozone depletion this year, and blaming SSW. Except such an excuse or explanation would have required continuous SSW from mid-June thru mid-Sept, to have the effect on reducing the ozone depletion in 2019, that BOM is implying to be its causation.
Where’s the prior 2.5 months of ozone depletion which should have already occurred in 2019, given an Aug 30th SSW could have had nothing at all to do with preventing 2019 ozone depletion having already largely occurred?
Yeeeah! Right.
So something other than SSW prevented the ozone depletion from occurring in the lower stratosphere, from mid-June to late august 2019. SSWs had nothing to do with the observed lack of ozone depletion in that period. BOM only foisted a red-herring on Sept 11th.
Some other process within the stratosphere did not permit the formation of the temperatures for ice, or else the chemistry needed to destroy the polar lower stratospheric ozone, from mid-June forward, or else that chemistry or ice was dynamically removed.
But what could do that?
90% of ozone in the atmosphere is within the stratosphere, where the concentration is greatest in the range 65,000, tapering out at 130,000 ft, but mostly it’s within the lower stratosphere.
If the lower stratosphere slowly sank toward the polar tropopause, depressing it lower, if not blurring the distinction between the two, this could lower the altitude of the chemistry needed within stratospheric ice clouds, which normally destroy the lower stratospheric ozone.
i.e. the stratospheric ice clouds formed lower down than normal (if they formed at all) in an area which contained only about 10% of global ozone. Thus there was less opportunity for ozone to be destroyed by ice xtals which sank down to a lower altitude than occurred in the recent decades.
Thus no real ozone depletion ‘hole’ formed during 2019, but this still slowly sinking air continued to cool the surface of the ice sheet into the start of the fully illuminated long Summer days.
70
A post from Javier at Climate Etc.
‘Proxy evidence, instrumental era measurements, and reanalysis, suggests that solar variability acts over the stratospheric pressure system transmitting the changes top-down, and over ocean temperatures bottom-up.
‘Low solar activity appears to induce a contraction of the Hadley cells, and an expansion of the polar cells, steepening the Equator-to-Pole temperature gradient, decreasing global temperatures and changing wind and precipitation patterns.
‘A persistent North Atlantic oscillation negative phase intensifies the effects over this particularly sensitive region.’
20
Thanks for the quotes Gordo. I’m wondering why he sees an inactive sun as changing the “stratospheric pressure system“. But given it’s what I think maybe happening here I better go see what he’s got say about a physical mechanism.
40
Jo, Has anybody noticed the appearance on the bom website of an article about a warm pool of air appearing over Antarctica this last winter, which they say is responsible for the low Australian rainfall..?? and… they say they are now able to predict the formation of the pool of warm air over Antarctica..
I would suspect it is all BS.. and they actually are paid to do that..
These jet stream anomalies … could they be connected to the coming global cooling?
The new ice age forecasters we heard from back in the 1970’s are still predicting an ice age… previously predicted 2025… revised to 2021.. It could be this 2021 cooling prediction that has the CGWarming liars in a panic.. wanting their legislation in place before the freeze begins…
As I understand it… Our solar system is like a great big alternator with the spinning magnetic fields of the planets variously spinning around in the Sun’s spinning magnetic field… In some planetary configurations the sun burns hotter, and in other planetary configurations the Sun burns cooler..which cools the Earth.
Apparently some Astro-physicists are into these cycles and they are predicting the cooling starts 2021..
The Russians and Americans also have scalar wave technologies which can warm a spot in the atmosphere and alter weather patterns.. ( Dearden)
Fracking.. the Surat basin coal seam gas industry has been fracking for years..only using products that can be bought at any supermarket??? I heard they are using ..flour and vinegar..?? (that can’t be a good idea)
The EIS for the Surat CSG is pure fiction.. suggesting the aquifer should recover in 400yrs… but.. a collapsed coal seam is unlikely to ever accept water again..
The 400yrs would refer to some radio isotopes put into bores at Ipswich ~50yr ago. From the observed westward movement of the isotopes it was calculated it would take 400 yrs to reach Surat..
This would suggest that all aquifers between Toowoomba and Ipswich which have a connection to the Dalby/Surat coal seams will be depleted…
The Qld CSG commission says only aquifers west of the range will be effected..
Creeks east of the range have been unnaturally dry for 10 years..at least..
The CSG practise is to remove a huge mass of water from their bores and hope they get some gas with it… eventually collapsing the coal seam and locking in most of the gas…hense the fracking…
( I was told the US CSG industry only recovered 30% of the gas.)
If they employed real engineers instead of the 2nd class gas fitters..they might leave the water in the aquifer and just extract the gas..
Cheers,
Mal
40
This is the face of climate change, tell me I’m dreaming?
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
20
You’re dreaming!
Does that make you feel better?
A better metric though, is the size of the UN budget allocated to the IPCC in supporting outreach programmes in supporting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Varibility.
50
‘ … your long hoped for cooling trend did not eventuate.’
Its happening now, but as you are only looking at temperatures its not easy to see the big picture.
In November and December 1787 the First Fleet travelling in the Roaring Forties experienced tumultuous weather and freezing conditions. They were all surprised that it could be so cold in the Austral summer, but in hindsight we can see it was global cooling.
There were smidgens of snow on the Tasmanian high country, while back in London the Thames froze solid, what more proof do you need?
100
Don’t worry, in a few years the BOM will have it as the hottest day evah!
20
A while ago I heard Ray Hadley on the “Canberra bubble”
This seems apt
“Rattling the Cage Doors”
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2019/12/02/rattling-the-cage-doors/
“You see, any curtailment of free speech doesn’t actually silence people. It leads people to communicate in other ways. Which can mean the “rulers” having no clue of what is actually going on in people’s minds because they’re not in on the joke — few of them would understand they’re the joke — and don’t see the communication taking place.”
Via SDA
60
Excerpt:
“IMHO part of the reason for the increasingly paranoid behavior of the left is that they know there is communication going on but they don’t understand it/know what we’re saying. They just have the impression that we’re getting restive, and they don’t fully get it. Even though they obviously should.”
This is about Science not politics!
Pet peeve, Climate Realists aka Skeptics frequently fail to be proactive. Instead of discussing what is occurring its logical to inspire with what could be but currently isn’t occurring.
00
Example:
https://news.stanford.edu/2019/09/30/new-treatment-prevents-wildfires/
September 20, 2019
Stanford researchers have developed a gel-like fluid to prevent wildfires
Scientists and engineers worked with state and local agencies to develop and test a long-lasting, environmentally benign fire-retarding material. If used on high-risk areas, the simple, affordable treatment could dramatically cut the number of fires that occur each year.
20
I seriously doubt they will dramatically cut the number of fires, that sounds like sales hype. Would be interesting in regard to protecting assets though.
00
What’s to be made of this story?
Tesla is rolling out bluddy big batteries to augment busy charging stations over Thanksgiving. The hopelessly green poster who linked to it thought it wonderful while I thought it indicated a grid under stress, one that has reached its limits already with EV penetration still low.
I figured that the batteries charge during periods of low demand and supply during peaks. If the grid supply was unlimited they would only need a parallel switchboard, inverter and retail outlets.
What say you?
https://thedriven.io/2019/12/02/tesla-deploys-mobile-ev-superchargers-powered-by-new-megapack-battery/
80
Recharging Tesla batteries in North America must be a breeze at the moment with all that solar power.
BTW, what is the efficiency of photovoltaics when covered by 300mm of snow?
110
Subjectively speaking, really low.
20
Tesla owners became a laughing stock over the holiday weekend due to extraordinary queues at some charging stations:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1uFudf37JU
After spending a small fortune on a car it is not cool to be sitting in a que for hours waiting to charge it.
The new high power chargers push out 250kW. Eight of those babies and you have serious power demand. The mobile chargers are a way to offer rapid deployment of more charging locations rather than massive grid upgrade.
100
And here is me thinking teslas were actually wind up clockwork toys…oh well….
30
More Tesla
“A Futuristic Blend Of Ugly And Useless”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2019/12/03/a-futuristic-blend-of-ugly-and-useless-3/
“Please note the horse trailer in the demonstration is empty.”
40
Thanks Ian. Very interesting video that clearly shows the limitations of EVs in these situations.
10
The sookage on Twitter from the smug and the virtuous was impressive. Smacked in the face by reality again.
30
Publicity?
These batteries/chargers were announced 6 months ago and most people would have forgotten them. But what with the early snow and cold temperatures in much of the USA, it is likely that demand for electricity has shot up. In some parts, e.g. Tesla’s home State, the policy on supply matches the one in Victoria so the combination of California wanting to import more electricity when the generating States need more for themselves must squeeze supply.
50
Not sure its indicative of a grid under stress or just indicative of poor capacity planning and placement of chargers and the long lead times to build permanent infrastructure. Probably academic to the people in the queue. This seems to be the classic case of the wishful thinkers/rainbows and unicorns crowd bumping into reality.
00
Part of the problem?
https://twitter.com/SaraCarterDC/status/1201201824281313285
30
Thought this from Truthstream Media was worth watching . . . . .
“Why You Can’t Stop Clicking”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1948&v=Sm5PX036GRs&feature=emb_logo
20
Just out for COP25:
https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10108
It is way worse than we thought:
70
They omitted the little bit about the heat records of the 1930s no longer existing!!! (They have been either archived or destroyed).
60
Oh my god, everyone run for the hills 1.1C above preindustrial and in 1990 we were just 0.85 above preindustrial showing that temperature is rising 0.25 deg in 30 years or maybe 0.8 deg per century. So even the inflated numbers offered to COP imply a sensitivity of less than 1.25 deg per doubling and dominant negative feedback. The next 1.25 deg after that takes 600 years.
Of course given the IPCC itself only claims around half to CO2 that implies about 0.625 deg per doubling which is very close to my calculated sensitivity given CO2s energy saturation.
Note though that CO2 IS 85% ENERGY SATURATED, this means that as the CO2 concentration rises the sensitivity will fall and by the next doubling the sensitivity will be 0.3 deg per doubling because there is less earth emitted IR energy in the CO2 stop band left to “Trap”.
The models assumption that sensitivity is a constant makes an implicit assumption that energy available to reflect to earth by CO2 is unlimited. This is obviously untrue and represents a violation of the law of conservation of energy. Violations of energy conservation (overunity) is why climate models are often unstable.
70
I found long term monthly data for OLR on KNMI:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/iumd_olr_0-360E_-90-90N_n.png
It is very interesting to compare this with the global total precipitable water:
https://friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/FOS%20Essay/fig4c_tpw.jpg
These match perfectly in phase each annual cycle. I was very surprised how well they match over the long term. Not only does the annual cycle have strong POSITIVE correlation but when water vapour trends up or down OLR trends in the same direction.
The “greenhouse effect” does not exist on this Earth. It is complete and utter fantasy. Climate models rely on this fantasy at their core. They cannot possibly produce anything of value.
60
Sorry rick I disagree here clearly when WV is high emission does goes up but the surface does actually stay warmer too. It is true that the effect is to create a nett increase in emission that cools the earth but the extra emission comes from the latent energy of evaporation. The energy streaming out, reduces the lapse rate, once its gone the WV rains out. The so-called iris effect. Water creates a non-linear (saturated) negative feedback.
In my post before I noted this. As you block/retain energy in a given band, eventually the wavelength becomes opaque as all the outgoing light is absorbed. beyond that point you can’t absorb any more energy. This is a bode restriction which climate scientists ignore. An amplifier has a power supply, you cant get more out of the amplifier than the power supply provides and as the output of the amplifier approaches the power supply limits the gain falls and the output waveform clips. In the climate the power supply is the energy in the narrow absorption band of CO2 which is already 85% opaque. As absorption rises the power available to absorb falls and the gain of the system (the sensitivity) will fall.
This is really basic theory.
20
Your contention that the surface is warming, increasing both WV and OLR, is not correct. The temperature does not correlate with these. Just look at the temperature data.
This is the global surface temperature anomaly for the last 3 years:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ihadcrut4_0-360E_-90-90N_n_2016:2020.png
This is the OLR data for the same period:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/iumd_olr_0-360E_-90-90N_n_2016:2020.png
It is obvious from these that the correlation between temperature and OLR is very poor. The OLR is a good proxy for WV.
It is not basic theory. It is a highly flawed theory based on the transmission of SWR through a US standard atmosphere. The flaw in this thinking is that the US Standard Atmosphere bears any relevance to the global atmosphere.
The data does not lie. It is simply that so many people have been conned into the false belief.
30
Had to ring EnergyAustralia this morning to report a minor leaking home gas meter. On hold for 10 minutes listening to endless guff about solar solutions and households going carbon neutral. This socialist green agenda has really taken root, everywhere. No wonder people are brainwashed.
100
Not picking on you but why didn’t you call the fire department and have them immediately contact the power company?
Gas leaks are dangerous.
10
Something in the Guardian about all future New Zealand government decisions to be driven by the climate crisis. RIP, New Zealand. :).
100
Sounds like time for a rewrite of “The Duke of Plazatoro”
Here’s a start
“In enterprise of Kiwi kind,
When there was any fighting,
He led his regiment from behind
(He found it less exciting)”
20
Driving from Geelong to Daylesford last week, lots of new wind turbines on both sides of the Ballan Road. I think it’s the Moorabool Wind Farm, owned by Goldwind Australia, a subsidiary of China’s biggest wind company, Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co. Limited. Comrade Daniel Andrews seems to like the boys from Beijing doing business in Victoria…
Andrews will soon send Victoria bankrupt with his green subsidies and billions of infrastructure spending.
Maybe that’s his aim…
90
Build as many as they want but we still will have blackouts this summer and because of them .
30
There is a rather sickening article in the current RACV magazine along the lines of how solar is going to save us . The completley ignore the realities of the system and talk about pumped Hydro and batteries as if they are a widely deployable, affordable , grid scale support for solar. Marvellous how wishful thinking can make things sooooooo simple. No awareness at all that they are building the problem rather than a solution.
50
You mean you opened yours up ? ,mine goes straight in the bin still wrapped in plastic .
60
Ours usually gets unwrapped but then largely ignored. It has become really irritating with all the GW/PC nonsense.
50
yes I always have a quick look, and the cover mention of solar drew me in. You can elect not to recieve them.
00
Strictly speaking it needs to be taken out of the polythene wrapping so that the back cover, with one’s name and address on it, can be removed and shredded before disposal.
10
Noticed the bird slaughterers also starting to appear on the hills between Seymour and Trawool, north of Melbourne. We are saved , just what the VIC grid needs and of course more downward pressure on energy prices. Daniel and Lily’s legacy is slowly coming together.
20
The Grauniad’s driven one too many toy battery cars off the ccccliff of sensibility (and believability). Besides, all their hot air caused it to SNOW down south today (pictures):
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Cardrona/webcams/latest
The mayor of Wanaka (note to moderators, it’s a real town, pronounced ‘WAA naa kaa’) when asked by a city radio jock if the flooded lake was unprecedented or the worst ever, laughed, then matter-of-factly described how 30-odd years ago the town was “nipple-deep” in lake water whereas today it’s “only ankle-deep and I’m 6′ 4″.”
Via WUWT: Oxford’s 2019 Word of the Year is not only a phrase (as opposed to a word) it’s an oxymoronic make-believe nonsense. Best commentors’ alternative suggestion was ‘Climate Diarrhoea’.
70
Oops this was a reply to Zane at #9. We ain’t dead, yet, buddy!
Crisis? What crisis? You mean freezing snow in summer? That’s normal… when you live halfway to Antarctica.
50
This article says that 800,000 ha, or just 10% of National Parks in NSW have been burnt, but it also says that 2,000,000 ha in total have burned in the state.
…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/huge-areas-of-national-parks-heritage-locations-hit-by-bushfires-20191203-p53gjk.html?btis
…
This has surprised me. Such a headline in SMH!!
But 800,000 divided by 2,000,000 = 40% (of the fires) by my calculations, so his use of “more than 10%” (of the NSW National Parks), while true is misleading.
And this:
” “This is a largely remote area where fire ignitions are predominantly from lightning. Most of the fire activity on the Gospers Mountain fire has been of relatively low to moderate intensity to date.” “,
by ” a spokesperson for the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment “,
contrasts with the word unstoppable used earlier to describe the situation and reduced ability to contain the fire. (Now 226,198ha at 4:12 am Wed Dec 4.)
Also no mention that that fire has now jumped the MacDonald River and is burning in the Dharug National Park as well. ( The “Three Mile” fire, out of control, 5864 ha at 5:51 am today, Wednesday December 4.) This is the one in the Wollemi NP, the closest to me, but heading away.
But at least they’ve made a mention.
…
On the other hand, a statistic that, IMHO is more significant, is that all the destruction of life and property, i.e. 100%, has occurred just outside the boundaries of these NPs from fires which have escaped from, or been triggered by spotting from them. (That figure is mine, untested, and based solely on news reports, but not explored in anything I’ve seen.)
Must be climate change…
Cheers
Dave B
70
The RACV magazine Royal Auto came out this week, bless them, full of hype about Victoria’s possible coming electricity crisis this summer, with much mention of blaming ageing coal fired plants and discussion by vested green think tanks of more renewables. The mooted cure is in fact causing the disease – it’s time to change this faulty diagnosis and sack the quack Dr Green.
Coal or gas is the antidote to No Power Syndrome. But somehow I think we will get more windmills and solar subsidies and demand management strategies.
90
Haha Zane!, great minds and all that. 🙂
60
Just think of it as the electrical version of that once fashionable treatment of bleeding and leaches
50
It’s amazing how the thinking has changed.
Even just ten years ago, this would be an indictment as to why they were not replaced.
Now it’s a slagging off at their old age, almost willing them to fail.
It’s still the first thing I would naturally think of….. then why were they not replaced.
Tony.
140
It’s a curious issue, is it the plant that needs to be replaced or equipment that needs to be upgraded/overhauled?
From a business perspective, why didn’t the company create a backup system onsite to maintain generation in transition? Power plants are typically located in a place that minimize overhead.
10
There are usually multiple generating units, however now they are all being driven hard over summer and in VICs case the back up betweem power stations has reduced as all the units at Hazelwood went bye bye.
The replace/maintain question would be case by case, but thats not unique to the power industry. Ageing coal fired plants is a bit like talking about the ageing Sydney Harbour Bridge. Doesnt mean it lacks functionality.
20
In the ABC today an article on what to do when the power goes off….allegedly for cyclone season, but I think not….
40
Wow, if they’re so sure coal is the problem, why not just turn all the coal-fired plants off for a month and see if that fixes the supply and cost issue?
😛
100
In our latest RACV Royalauto magazine is an article on Victoria’a blackouts, I honestly never read it except the cover caught my eye, well you guessed it the entire thing is a huge pile of crap with cliche gems of a solar solution and decrepit old coal being the problem.
I was going to send off an email to them pointing out the errors but why bother? if people are that convinced CO2 is warming the planet and “renewables” can deliver 100% power demands 24/7 I won’t waste my time, waiting for the next time I call for assistance and an electric van pulls up…/sarc.
70
Yonnie, send them a serious letter with a practical proposal to turn off all of the coal-fired plants for a month to see if that fixes supply and affordability.
Force them to think about the results of doing that, even if they’re dimwitted partisan fools, who believe in magic-puddings.
100
Jo,
Lately I have come to the conclusion that we might have to go on the offense and start using the warmists own tactics. For example maybe we should be calling people (greens) who have supported (are conspirators) for the following crimes Climate Criminals.
Creating food riots by turning food aid into ethanol
Who are ok with grannies freezing in winter because of unaffordable fuel bills
Who caused the death of indigenous communities to make way for carbon credit earning forestry
Who are ok with the death of protected species incinerated by CSP or slammed by windmills
Who are fine with the sterilisation of square kms of land to build renewable trinkets on (Renewables need cleared/sterilised land)
Who terrorise and bully children to the point of child abuse with green end-of-the-world rhetoric
I think the title of criminal is very defensible for warmists who support policy with these outcomes.
Also Jo, I think maybe we should start to pick out certain high profile warmies and take aim. For example the PM himself is very vulnerable as is the opposition leader, both well deserving of ridicule. Perhaps we can take aim at some of the more ridiculous claims of the political classes.
140
After 30 years of rearguard action its time to go on the attack, but I strongly disagree on your approach.
Our main target should be the klimatariat and their failure to recognise that global cooling has begun. This is not a parody.
50
What sink to their level of threats , intimidation and civil disobedience? , I think not Bobl let them throw the tantrums and let us be the voice of reason .
20
Yes indeed, battle weary, yet calm in the face of overwhelming adversity.
We must ridicule the klimatariat and place them under immense pressure. I’ve earmarked Rowan Dean as our best chance of getting the story out and its up to us to supply the material.
In this recent paper you can see how the klimatariat is in a vulnerable position, what they are saying is pure folly.
‘We survey 23 climate models and show that during winter some models simulate too many blocking events, while others simulate too few, whereas during summer, almost all models simulate too few events to the south of Australia. We also show that with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases we expect there to be less blocking, particularly to the south of Australia and over New Zealand during winter.’
Patterson et al 2019
20
Yes we should supply the material.
The major media communication channels are pretty well blocked, but there are still some outlets;
Rowan Dean and the Outsiders program
Peta Credlin on Sky,
Andrew Bolt (Sky and herald Sun)
Alan Jones – Macquarie. (he is against fracking unfortunately but good on Climate Change)
The Australian newspaper and the Herald Sun.
Various blogs, including this one.
There is also the possibility of poster campaigns; walls, underpasses, power poles etc.
I noticed during the last election that the Australian Conservatives posters were targeted for removal. I took that as a sign that activists disliked them (even though they use a lot themselves). So they could be effective.
60
Chris Kenny does the best coherent job of debunking CAGW hype in my opinion but love outsiders on Sunday .
40
Chrus Kenny is very sharp and always gets to the point !
GeoffW
10
I mean of course Chris Kenny . . above
GeoffW
10
I though you was a Kiwi for a second, 😉
10
From Settled Science’s X-files Of Failure: Oops, Busted Again.
https://www.electroverse.net/south-africas-recent-record-breaking-hot-temperature-was-invalid-admits-weather-service
A recently upgraded automatic weather station in Vioolsdrif recorded 50.1C, then “53.2C, which was rounded off to 54C”. When questions were asked, the SA Weather Service retracted its claims of ‘hottest ever’, invalidating the new record. But by then, Climate Diarrhoea had spread far and wide:
https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2019-12-01-sa-village-breaks-weather-record
70
Not wanting to be alarmist, but those completely normal, nothing to worry about fires are now sitting at 147 for new south wales, with residents in colo heights and north batemans bay being evacuated
210
The problem throughout the summer is going to be the extreme winds in a droughty, fire prone environment.
30
There are up to 60,000 fires in Australia every year.
60
Make that 148 – I just lit a candle to calm myself down. This one goes out to the on I love…
40
Oh and not wanting to be alarmed myself, but 5 new fires have broken out in areas already burnt once around me.
26
Fire breaks already in place then.
50
Peter,
From reading many of your comments, which are impossible to avoid, you’re already 5 Alarm Chili.
But, if they are around you, make sure you have planned several evacuation routes.
20
Have the police caught the arsonists who started these fires?
10
How many of those fires were started by firebugs and accidents and how many by Mother Nature Poiter ?
Pretty sure climate change was involved in zero fires .
40
Good point Robert, but ignition type is only part of the picture. Obviously if everything was wet, for example this would not be a problem.
It does appear that even now, resources are getting thin, with calls to every group who could possibly help going out again. After all manning a roadblock on a fire trail is about all I’m good for, as an example
25
Good work Peter, manning roadblocks.
When the drought breaks, with flooding rain, the fires will be over.
30
“Obviously if everything was wet, for example this would not be a problem.”
Obviously, if they had more coal mines, it would be wetter … science:
Coal miners to blame for Queensland floods, says Australian Greens leader Bob Brown
https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/coal-miners-to-blame-for-queensland-floods-says-australian-greens-leader-bob-brown/news-story/cbfe12042fa9c4149ea3c10524f57344
70
why would “everything be wet” at the beginning of December? I guess if there was no oxygen it wouldnt be an issue as well. You can make up any make beleive scenario you like I guess.
40
the “for example” passed you by?
06
If we are not supposed to “worry” about “normal”, then obviously we should not be worried about what you keep telling us is “the new normal.
Alternatively, you can stop putting words in our mouths.
Fires have been a worry for over 200 years.
70
I hope you will not be directly impacted this year, or any other year.
04
Peter we hope no one is directly impacted by bushfires ever but as noted above with over 200 years history management has been the best chance of survival.
There is nothing new under the sun.
60
You’re clearly not hand wringy and empathetic to satisfy PF, those are the things that matter after all, not realism.
30
“…completely normal, nothing to worry about fires…”
The trick is to invent a claim nobody has made or would make…then ironise about it.
Say that fires have been a worry and you’ll get back I hope you will not be directly impacted this year, or any other year.
None of it makes sense, none of it is meant to make sense, least of all to me, currently closely affected by the fires. It is automated defense of the hive. GeeUp stuff.
40
Sorry – how many threads on this blog have been about how normal this is?
ABC discovers data (on facebook) showing wet rainforest has not burned once, ever, or at all, in “tens of millions” of years
Whole of NSW coast shrouded in dust and smoke, 47C in Hunter Valley (75 years ago)
This is the “old normal” — these fires are mid to late season fires for NSW
In 1946 — 800 miles of fires “stretched from Brisbane to Townsville”
These are all from the last 30 days on this blog
I rest my case
010
“Sorry – how many threads on this blog have been about how normal this is?”
Er, none?
This is an extreme event. I ought to know. There have been other extreme events. Is that the confusion? To clarify: the present snow emergency in California is extreme and in no way normal for November. However it doubtless has precedents.
Whole of NSW coast shrouded in dust and smoke, 47C in Hunter Valley (75 years ago). Normal? Nothing to worry about? Who said that?
In 1946 — 800 miles of fires “stretched from Brisbane to Townsville”. Normal? Nothing to worry about? Who said that?
Your instinctive hive protection, on the other hand, is completely normal. But it is also extreme and it is a worry.
80
An unusual event vs an unprecedented event.
Now you are confusing the poor chap. He only has space in his brain for two categories: things the collective likes, and things the collective doesn’t like. Nuance is way too complicated.
20
Brisbane to Townsville = 1000 miles ??
00
Peter here’s a link to the ABC just in page about the Wollemi pine I thought you’d enjoy reading .
Make sure you read all the way down to the bit about previous fires and blackened trunks .
Amazing trees to survive 100 million years .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/wollemi-pine-trees-national-park-fires-blue-mountains/11763420
40
Re the Wollemis.
“The population appears to have been submitted to fire before, the trunks are black and charred, so it really depends on the intensity of the fire and that impacts the trees and the vegetation surrounding them,” Dr Rossetto said.
There’s that Gondwanan Araucarian forest that “has never been burnt” again. Hahahaha.
Yes but these fires are unprecedentedly unprecedented.
And how do we stop fires burning into rainforest kiddies?
That’s right, we burn off the sclerophyll forest around it to reduce fire intensity and transmission.
40
“I rest my case”.
That’s O.K. but I can’t find it, where did you put it?
AKK
30
It was empty anyway. !
50
Sorry to disagree Peter, well I remember the Black Monday Illawarra Bushfires of October 1968:
https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/5716349/bushfire-expert-says-illawarra-could-burn-like-black-monday-again/
… I was a 10-year old at Unanderra Public School out practicing the Pride of Erin ready for the end-of-year formal (as one did) while ash fell all around us and fires raged, over the escarpment and down the many valleys leading into Wollongong’s suburbs (not a “Late-Season” fire that!). As students our greatest gripe was that the Catholic School sent their students home and ours didn’t!
….”everything old is new again” when society learns naught from its own history….
50
‘I rest my case.’
Not so fast, a US Geological Survey’s wildfire expert states, “Some will argue that it’s climate change, but there is no evidence that it is. It’s the fact that somebody ignites a fire during an extreme [wind] event.” wuwt
20
Liberal Party Scrutiny
I will be attending an IPA function next Tuesday involving a book launch by ex Senator Richard Alston with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
I hope I may be able to ask them about Liberal Party policy, particularly in respect to Climate Change and also the ABC. I think there is too much timidity there.
However it seems from a recent letter that the PM Scott Morrison sent me that he actually believes everything has is told by our institutions (CSIRO, BOM, University Climate Science departments).. Consequently he is committing us to the Paris Agreement and more waste of our money on Climate mitigation (ie renewable energy).
130
Morrison isn’t the real issue, the voters are for being sucked in that he was in favour of coal fired power stations. He’s actually more interested in Snow 2.0 starting soon as well as more renewables.
80
I was fooled when Morrison brought a lump of coal into Parliament. Giving a billion dollars for renewable projects flys completely in the face of that.
He’s lost me.
20
Suggest they follow Trump’s lead and have the courage to confront the purveyors of nonsense.
80
Thanks Rick,
That is what I will be trying to achieve.
A first step in my opinion, is to get a more balanced scientific opinion on things like Greenhouse Theory and the Electricity Grid. The government could commission Enquiries with a goodly input from sceptical scientists and electrical engineers, The reaction will be extreme, but it they can weather that, there will be a solid official basis for an alternative policy.
70
Regarding Melbourne Friday get together:
Please note that for reasons beyond my control I have had to change the venue to one about 2km away from the first one. The new venue is in Prahran in the vicinity of High Street and Williams Rd. Time will be 6pm to 8pm in the dining section then we’ll have to go to bar section. Date is still this Friday 6th December. I will send out emails today to those that responded via Jo. If you still want to come send an email to Jo.
70
It’s been snowing in Alpine areas of Victoria and NSW with falls of 15-30cm so I can’t wait until the BoM declares it to be the hottest December eeevvveeerrr.
80
Snap! ’tis called the Silly Season for a reason –
“Hottest November on record: NIWA climate scientists” aka charlatans.
NZ “has just experienced its hottest November on record” and it’s all your fault Australia, ie. warm nor’westers, except when you read the fine print, it was JUST AS WARM back in 1954 (1.38 C ‘above average’ versus 1.55 C this year).
Apparently 0.17 of a degree’s difference over 65 years is a sure sign we’ve finally tipped the climate over the precipice. Not mentioned were the cold fronts, the snow blizzards, the freezing wind chills, the Mt Ruapehu ski area which extended its season till the end of November due to the 3 metre (10 foot) snow base refusing to melt… and it began snowing again today.
30
You said you were cold Greg so put the heater on for you
10
The BoM’s homogenization process can make Antarctica look tropical… so I wouldn’t rule out them declaring “the hottest December eeevvveeerrr”.
50
Currently looking at installing a solar system, and my current calculations show that, over a 10-year period, it barely breaks even.
Cost of 5 kW system: $8160 (Good quality system)
Less government subsidy: -$3010
I have to pay: $5150
Add Opportunity Cost +$1524
Total Cost over 10 years: $6674 (No maintenance included)
Annual Electricity Cost: $1879 (Unit cost only @ 26.2 c/unit)
Expected 10-year saving: $6792 (Based on reducing costs to $100/month)
Is my saving expectation close to what will be achieved with a 5 kW system in Perth?
Yes, I know, perhaps I should have calculated over 15 years, but there is a reason for the 10-year calculation.
All comments appreciated.
20
I note that you have not allowed for battery storage of the electricity you hope to generate – not good if you are out most of the day and use power at night or early morning.
The other thing you have to allow for is panel cleaning, generally once a week but more if the air is carrying dust. That requires that you can safely get to the panels and wash and dry them without falling off the roof. If you don’t clean them their output drops quite rapidly.
Remember that 5 kW is only available if the panels are at the correct angle and orientated in the correct direction and is only available for a short time around midday. Any thing out of optimum an the output drops off.
30
Thanks for responding Ivan. As I’m mostly retired, I spend a lot of time in my townhouse during the day, so I need the air con running 24/7 during hot periods as is now occurring in Perth.
I don’t plan to add batteries – there is no way I would instal a set of Lithiums anywhere near this place. Power interruptions are very rare and when they occur, are very short, so I’ll ride them out.
Talked to a few folks about panel cleaning and it seems nobody does it in Perth, so haven’t been able to obtain a quote yet. Won’t be able to do it myself as its a two-storey townhouse.
Not sure how they plan to install the panels, but I believe the coverage will be adequate. My main usage will be midday in summer. Hardly turn the air con on in winter as the place stays warm even at night.
10
These figures I believe are propaganda-
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/solar-panels-rebates-energy-is-it-worth-it/11738270
As for weekly cleaning I’m not so sure that’s absolutely necessary and I’ve never cleaned our panels .
I did an experiment once with portable solar panels that had a good layer of fine WA pindan covering the whole panel and the difference between clean and dirty was next to nothing .
As for panel rating on the back of a panel is a label which tells you how much power is generated but the figures they give are in a lab under a certain artificial light and temperature controlled environment.
These conditions exist in very few places on earth and I’ve never got close to what mine are rated to but yes they are saving me from big bills and in Victoriastan with the increases we’ve had I think I’m paying about half of what I was maybe 10 year ago .
20
Thanks for your comments Robert. I looked at a smaller system, but with the smaller rebate, it seemed to make better sense to instal a larger system. In summer my electricity costs shoot up to over $250/month, but are minimal in winter. If I can reduce these summer bills by $150/month, then I will be ahead I think.
I didn’t factor in any electricity price increases over the next 10 years, but they will surely occur.
When I rang around trying to obtain a cleaning quote, most folks were puzzled as to why I was even asking about panel cleaning – it seems our heavy rains do a good job of keeping the panels cleans.
00
Depends when you use that extra power, if night time airconditioning then it wouldn’t help nor would it help with daytime aircon if you have splits connected to the hot water circuit as mine are.
I’m in the tropics and don’t use a lot of aircon, maybe I’m used to the heat. A timber framed house, on a rise with a lot of ceiling fans helps too.
00
I just leave the air con on 24/7 on a low setting. Have tried turning off the upper levels during the day, but since the temp is sensed upstairs, the air con runs harder unless I constantly readjust the temp setting. You’re correct in that I’m not saving power at night, but then the air con is not working much at night either. With all these days at 39-40 recently, the air con is fairly busy. As I’ve mentioned, we seem to be in for a hot summer in Perth, quite different from the east of Australia.
00
Couple of thoughts
No mention of expected escalation of grid costs over time
No idea how you arrived at the cost reduction number. Is that from a suppliers calculation?
You could arrive at a finger in the wind estimate using a 30-40% capacity factor of stated capacity at grid rates. Assume you signed up for FIT if you went 5kW
00
Electricity cost increase over time: Correct, I haven’t included that data at this stage. I thought that if I can achieve my target of $679 savings a year, then any cost increase would be icing on the cake. Am I wrong in that assumption?
Cost reduction number: The one-time figure was obtained from my installer. They are usually spot on and I’m presuming that they have already obtained this subsidy figure from the government. This figure doesn’t include any possible additional subsidies from me feeding back energy into the grid.
Wind estimate: You have lost me here. Is the wind cooling a solar array a major factor? I will be basing my savings purely on what I see reflected in my energy bills.
FIT: Hmm, clearly I haven’t done adequate research as I’m not sure of this term. Could you please explain.
00
Graeme4,
The devil is in the detail..
Make sure you have MICRO INVERTERS on each panel, not a string inverter system.
Ensure you have “panel level” monitoring.
Specify , proven reliable , branded , equipment. With a warranty on the hardware and installation.
Ensure you have a professional solar survey to identify potential shadeing and optimum panel location/orientation.
Consider extral panels with east/west bias to extend peak power duration.
Think hard.
.. you wont save money, …
…you wont get power independence..
Remember the problems RT solar passes to the grid !
10
Thanks for the comments Chad. The single Inverter quoted is a Fronius Primo 5.0: https://www.fronius.com/en-au/australia/photovoltaics/products/all-products/inverters/fronius-primo/fronius-primo-5-0-1. Couldn’t find much info on the inverter warranty so have asked my installer for info on this.
The quoted panels are 16 x REC 325 N-Peak Energy Panels: https://www.recgroup.com/en/products/rec-n-peak-en?parent=81&type=product. The panel warranty seems OK, promising 86% output after 25 years. If I live to see that I’ll be doing well.
The inverter and panel brands seem to be good quality items.
As it’s a two-storey townhouse in a complex surrounded by other similar two-storey townhouse complexes and two-storey houses, there aren’t any trees or anything that will shade the panels. I believe that the panels will be split between north-facing and east/west facing.
I’m not that worried about power independence because the grid here seems to be very stable, and since there are two major hospitals nearby, we rarely lose power and when it does go down, it’s only for short periods. I’m mainly focused on reducing my summer power bill since I often work from home these days.
Yes, I know that I’m being a bit of a hypocrite in railing against renewables while planning to install solar and not worrying about its impact on grid stability, or its disposal later. In the end I’m taking advantage of the government’s (misguided?) generosity while it still exists.
00
As regards roof area, there is only about 10sqm of north-facing roof, but around 45sqm facing west and about 37sqm facing east, so I’m guessing the panels will mostly be oriented east-west.
00
OK, so the Inverter warranty is 5+5 years: https://www.fronius.com/en-au/australia/photovoltaics/infocentre/news/5-plus-5-year-warranty-promotion.
The installer has had two inverter failures so far in the systems they have installed.
As I’m focusing on a 10-year period, this warranty should cover that.
00
Didn’t comment on the expected power saving. My electricity bills shoot up from a low of $100/month in winter to around $175 to $250/month in spring, summer and a bit of autumn. My next-door neighbour in an identical townhouse, with a 5 kW solar system, tells me that he doesn’t pay any more than $100/month. Thus I’m aiming to reduce my summer bills down to $100/month – if I can do this for around six months of the year, the system should pay for itself.
00
Graeme#4
If you have not already come across the “solarquotes” site, have a read..
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/solar101.html
Its a good guide through the endless pitfalls of solar tech and also has reviews on much of the system components..including the Frodius inverter.
20
Well that was a VERY interesting and informative read Chad! Many thanks for the link. It seems that panels and inverter chosen by my electrical folks are quite good. I have checked the proposed inverter location and it’s in the shade most of the day, although it’s warm out there – reached 39.6 degrees out there today.
After reading that link info, have just advised the electrical folks to go ahead with the installation – was waiting for the informed advice that I’ve received here. Thanks to everybody who contributed.
10
Lovely summary of Climate scares from Breitbart’s John Nolte. Socialist Bernie Sanders has been a climate alarmist for 28 years now.
““We don’t have decades. What the scientists are telling us – if we don’t get our act together within the next eight or nine years, we’re talking about cities all over the world – major cities – going under water,” Sanders said.
Those grandchildren he is saving are now 28 years older and the US seems to be colder, not hotter. Either way, we are all doomed unless Bernie is able to implement his $16Trillion Climate Change plan. And it seems what China does is irrelevant.
It’s nice not to have any self doubt despite being completely wrong for decades as 30,000 people have flown in for the Madrid COP conference to discuss not flying. Couldn’t they have had a conference over the internet? Greta should arrive in Spain soon on her diesel powered yacht. They had to fly a captain across the Atlantic so she could sail to Spain. High farce everywhere.
50
I watched Greta’s yacht arrive in NY on a tracking app. It arrived a little before dawn so circled offshore for an hour or so before sailing into harbour in the morning light. Never let a PR chance go by.
30
?? NY ?… i thought they sailed into Lisbon ?
20
How did she get to NY and the UN?
00
Ahh !, OK, previous journey….. my bad !
10
Claim: Delaying Climate Action Could Threaten Democracy
According to University of Copenhagen professor Ole Wæver, if we don’t act soon the UN Security Council might have to take over and dictate climate policy to member states, just as the EU took control of Greece.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/03/claim-delaying-climate-action-could-threaten-democracy/
20
Madrid – that hot place in central Spain.
Just the place for a few thousand warmists to gather and sing the anthems. A city which proves to the world that the planet is heating unabatedly in a catastrophic sense and we are well and truly embroiled in a climate emergency never before experienced on this planet.
Madrid’s max today is 12C and minimum is 6C. Same tomorrow.
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”The science is saying we’re headed to 4 degrees warming and people like Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Center and Johan Rockström from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research are saying that such a temperature rise is incompatible with civilized life.”
It seems like one mans climate change is another mans summer holiday.
10
SBS this evening is ‘reporting’ that the GBR could be graded as endangered by the UN. Happy scientist saying that mining endangers it and mining makes as many jobs as the reef if properly funded to save it. So in a sensible world the people could exchange one for the other. Note this is a precis of the argument.
No sign of Dr Ridd or any evidence, especially from the recent Adani court cases that shows that inland mining hundreds OF Km awaY HAS NO EFFECT ON THE REEF, OR THAT CROWN OF THORNS ‘PLAGUES’ ARE PROBABLY NATURAL AND THAT TWO CYCLONES HAVE DAMAGED THE REEF BUT IT IS SHOWING GREAT SIGNS OF REGENERATION AND SO ON..SORRY FOR THE CAPS.
It looks as if the new paradigm is ‘we decide what the people are to be told’
‘We have found a fear driven way of ensuring extra funding’.
‘No one is talking in our reporting about replication of science and validation so we can just ignore these unfortunate things’
‘If we link this with mining we may be able to kill two birds with one stone’.
‘Wipe out mining and ensure rivers of gold for our careers’.
The mug taxpayer pays and the Coalition splits again..’nice work if you can get it and you can get it if you try’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnB_dBfRHi4
‘We may be able to blunt the CFMEU argument that ‘If you want to accept the science on climate change then accept the science on fracking and allow it where safe rather than have a blanket ban’
No good in an election when everyone should know that all mining is bad.
Waiting for any other rational view on the GBR is like waiting for rain.
Perhaps the red hot warmists are right,CO2 is a miracle gas that causes every thing,even real scientists, to believe they are, and have ‘right’on their side.
In Gaia we trust, everyone else bring data.
SBS, stop fooling us on the GBR.
30
Lewis, Has anybody checked for Fuckashima Radiation on the reef??? …Any mixing of the Northern Pacific current with the Southern Pacific current on the equatorial section would surely deliver radiation to the northern GBR … and isn’t that where the problem is ?? Perhaps marine biologists prefer to swim in nuclear waste…
00
According to the UN, The GBR might be in peril, so as a result they may class it as endangered. hmm… is that because Jeremy may well be the next PM?
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