The Daily Mail breathlessly recycles Ross Garnaut’s 2008 Climate Change report which predicted every kind of disaster. They don’t mention that nearly every fire report since time began predicted extreme widespread uncontrollable fires from unmanaged fuel loads. But those experts have cause and effect. Garnaut has magic spells from climate models.
He apparently mentioned the first effects wouldn’t be seen til 2020, and here we are, “week one”. Spooky!
This is more and more like analyzing Climate Astrology.
How a bombshell report PREDICTED Australia’s bushfire crisis with eerie precision 12 years ago
The article is being derisively mocked in most comments there.
I predict that the Daily Mail Australia will soon ban comments like the ABC, and The Guardian.
Rebecca Spellman for Daily Mail Australia
- The report predicted that the effects would be directly observable by 2020
- 300 per cent increase in days with extreme fire weather is predicted by 2067
- 25 people have died, six more are missing and at least 1500 homes destroyed
Australia was warned about bushfires becoming more extreme and wreaking havoc across the country for longer periods of time in an incredible report published 12 years ago. The Garnaut Climate Change Review’s final report preempted that fire seasons would ‘start earlier, end slightly later, and generally be more intense.’ The report, which was published in 2008, predicted the effects would increase over time but the affects wouldn’t be seen until 2020.
The commenters already know too much:
Terrence Odgers, Woodville,
Any five year old could have predicted this latest catastrophe when National Parks are locked up and fire hazard reduction has not been carried out properly for decades! Not too mention 180 arsonists arrested that the media seems to be shy about!
TheBThing, Melbourne
They also predicted it would never snow again and weirs and dams would empty.
Nelllakam, Boston Cairns Sydney, Australia,
Sure, climate change with two hands and a box of matches.
Despite my flippant attitude, the loss of comments at yet another outlet will be a sad day.
I once asked a talk-back radio host why talk-back was dominated by conservatives. He said “because it’s talk back”. “Say something silly, and the punters will let you know”.
UPDATE: I searched DuckDuckGo for “Left wing talk back show” and it came back with:
“Including results for right wing talk show hosts.
Search only for “left” wing talk “back” show?
Seems the Greens are like the Socialists. Socialism never fails, it’s just never been done correctly. Until the Greens learn how to say, “I was wrong”, there’s little hope for improving the long-term effects of Green programs.
330
I am not aware of any politics here. I thought the post was about a kind of purpose built machine that recycles magic climate spells and predictions of doom through the media. A bit like an action or suspense movie… Nothing to do with the politics.
101
Well in this case this warming worrier is right:
And because of the lack of adequate action, ie fuel reduction, 2020 has seen a more intense fire season.
Other armchair experts suggest that fuel reduction makes no difference, with the excuses being made by and on behalf of Andrews:
He thinks? Three or four years ago, not five or six…? In one or two years an area subject to a bushfire can suddenly sprout enough undergrowth that in a following dry summer will burn quite ferociously.
Since Andrews is so into Aboriginal culture etc, why not listen to those people and learn about controlling bushfires. Same goes for our armchair fire chief:
https://youtu.be/RM72NtXxyLs
100
Remember that the fire chiefs are paid public servants, not volunteers who have feet on the ground. My local RFS brigade members are adamant that it is the massive fuel loads in national forests that have created the problems this year.
130
What I find angering and offensive are all the armchair experts coming out after the event and saying risk mitigation has no effect. They don’t even acknowledge the risk (of leaving fuel loads untouched) is an issue.
There are three elements that allow a fire to occur: fuel, oxygen and heat. When it comes to bushfires, there is only one element that we have some control over to prevent a fire, fuel.
110
Ultra offensive!
After talking to locals in my area connected with the CFA, they all agree that my concern that firebreaks are too narrow. They need to be at least 50 meters wide for safer access to fire fighters. The specification varies currently of about 8 to 10 meters wide.
Good grief! I am so angry. Even if we forget about fuel loads, what about the safety of firefighters. This is a definite occupational health and safety issue. A 10 metre wide firebreak not good enough!!
21
There are three things required for a fire. The first is fuel – without fuel, there is no fire! Example: Sahara/Gobi etc deserts! The second is oxygen, which clearly ScoMo should have/should be controlling! And the third, an ignition source, man-made or natural. Hello, you lightning controllers/arsonist-suppressors! Stop falling down on the job! Get real!
11
Whats happening in Australia? After Australian fires being front page news for weeks, It seems to have disappeared from the radar in Canadian and U.S. news. Can’t find anything this morning.
90
What’s happening? Rain. Cooler spell for a few days so the imminent danger is reduced. Heat coming again (as it does in summer) around Friday. The fires are not out.
Thanks for the feedback, had I realized I would have done a quick summary. News is “saturated” here.
340
Thank you Jo.
40
I hear that the Indian Ocean Dipole is easing. Maybe that should get a mention too?
161
The Southern Annular Mode is negative, which is significant.
60
Indian Ocean Dipole – another woodoo reason why Australia is dry and Africa is wet. The moisture is sucked from the east of the Indian Ocean to the west. But wait a minute – there are floods in Indonesia and drought in Southern Africa. Must be climate change. Or something.
61
Indian Ocean Dipole – another woodoo reason why Australia is dry and Africa is wet. The moisture is sucked from the east of the Indian Ocean to the west. But wait a minute – there are floods in Indonesia and drought in Southern Africa. Must be climate change. Or something.
20
Just an FYI:
Fox News (US) did cover the fact that there had been some brief respite in the weather, and was aiding the efforts of the firefighters. The on-the-scene reporter also interviewed some victims (obviously tape-delayed for US consumption).
Do know that most sensible persons on this side of the Big Pond are supportive and sympathetic to the plight, at the same time that we also understand that lack of management and fuel-clearing are the primary causes of the current inferno, and not climate change.
As a sidebar, there was once a very (socialist) Senator from South Dakota (Black Hills, Mt. Rushmore) who tried to blame climate change on fires taking place in his state. He was taken to school by the Bureau of Land Management and US Forest Service about the lack of clearing of underbrush, fuel-clearing, prescribed burns, fire access roads (in public, by the way) and suddenly went from being a rabid “environmentalist” to proposing legislation to allow proper ‘management’ in South Dakota (while prohibiting it everyplace else).
Thankfully, Tom Daschle was defeated in a bid for re-election some years back. He was replaced by a limited-government [conservative — in US parlance] Senator, and the Black Hills have not been this healthy (and had fewer fires) in decades. Even in dry times, natural and man-caused fires are controlled and extinguished with far less effort than would be required, if management practice were absent.
391
Good to have that example.
180
Like most politicians, they change their story to placate the current listener. ‘Know your audience’ is rule one.
‘Green’ audience, promote less clearing.
Non-‘green’ audience, promote more clearing.
Votes are more important than policies.
110
John, IMHO that is a bit too cynical. Some politicians are bright, smart and even thoughtful. They are capable of learning. If they are open to learning and changing their minds where it is the right thing to do, there is hope.
We just need to bend their ears!
30
which political makes members sign on their membership application form to accept the party line totally against democratic principles senators can not even vote in their states best interest if it crosses party lines nobody who believes in democracy could sign that members should be allowed to represent constituents
10
It’s gone quiet for fear of someone Bigly overseas using the ”A” word
Our Media over here wouldn’t be able to gaslight that.
90
Cyclone Blake…. Cyclones in the northwest tend to spin out a low across Australia from east to west, spilling out moist air (a storm line) over the continent. This caused the 2011 Queensland flood. This time the rain band got bent down into Victoria, then gradually bent back up the coast by a passing rosby wave from Antarctica. Because Cyclone Blake is only a BOM hyped (Hyper?) Cyclone barely making gusts of 60 km per hour the rain effect is weak and almost over. Unfortunately in Queensland there was not a lot of rain. But the fire areas in NSW did get some of it.
20
Pious Piers Morgan has pulled his head in?
00
What’s happening in Australia? Catastrophic bush fires destroying property and killing people. Eased due to rain, coming back again on Friday. Really bad. Anything else I can help you with, Rick.
00
Every Day, more of the normally supportive (ie Denial) commentators and outlets are moving into the AGW camp. Soon It will down to the stupid 3 (Trump, Murdoch, and Scotty from Marketing). I will monitor this blog for the day it finally sees the light
164
And of course, this blog is 100% in its perditions /sarc
145
So you are saying this bushfire season is related to a build up of human induced CO2, which is supposedly causing global warming. That is rubbish, throughout the Holocene there is clear evidence that CO2 levels follow temperature.
‘During the Holocene interglacial 8.2 kyr cold event, Greenland CO2 values drop from 270 to 210 within about 500 years and are 50 ppm lower than Antarctic CO2 values. Greenland CO2 values also show an abrupt rise after the 8.2 kyr event of 80 ppm within 200 years.’ Renee Hannon / wuwt
330
Add energy to a chaotic system, and this is what you get.
217
TOTAL BULL SHI* you made it up, there is no evidence, proof or other reason to assume what you said out of the [snip]
NON-Science you just faked. Fake news. Add energy? Measure if you will the entire chaotic system and tell me with confidence that there isn’t some place in the chaotic system that has a deficit of energy.
You are a complete Dumbas* which normally would end in ss.
More of your 2020 wailing and gnashing. Handlers must be really desperate….
150
‘Add energy to a chaotic system, and this is what you get.’
Importantly, the vibrating CO2 molecule does not in itself create energy, solar forcing determines temperature level and carbon dioxide follows.
The hiatus in world temperatures for 20 years suggests CO2 has no case to answer.
150
Nobody has added any energy
Where did all the CO2 from the fires go to ?
and energy that was released, certainly not “trapped”, was it fits.
You have ZERO evidence of warming or “trapping of energy by increased atmospheric CO2
It is scientific NONSENSE.
120
“Add energy….blah blah “
Only a complete scientific moron would think that CO2 can “add” any energy to the atmospheric system.
But if the cap fits..
110
Peter, let’s pretend for a minute that humans added 0.9C to a world that has 10 degree variations on a long term basis and 20 degree variations every day and night. Explain to us how that is more important than 183 arsonists, and stopping a fuel reduction practice that drove natural selection, carving out a fire prone ecology for thousands of years?
Don’t forget to show how rainfall long term trends have changed, how winds speeds and evaporation changed (and in these locations). If the “added” energy exists surely it has to affect these first before it has any effect on fires, a complex phenomenon far down a long chain of cause and effect.
Then you can explain why “climate change” encourages arson, because I see how self-serving corruption and baseless hype in the news might do that…
170
Let’s not pretend anything.
A scientist — not a shaman nor a witchdoctor — back in 1970 made this climate forecast:
the climate will continue to grow colder during the 1970s and
early 1980s; then it will become gradually warmer again so
that by 2015 we shall be back to where we were in 1960—no
better; and after that it will start becoming colder again. In short,
the outlook for the next fifty years is decidedly chilly.
— Dr Willi Dansgaard, as reported in:
CALDER, Nigel, 1972: “The Restless Earth. A report on the new geology.”
p 127. The British Broadcasting Corporation.
ISBN 0 563 121238.
Pretty darn accurate, isn’t it?
The notorious Climate Models haven’t once in thirty years come anywhere nearly as close to that level of accuracy!
Science: 10
“Witchcraft” (or Pseudoscience:) NIL
100
It’s based on two solar cycles present in the Greenland Camp Century ice core.
Note the absence of CO2 …
00
Earth’s Energy Imbalance shows a downward trend throughout the hiatus.
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/6/663
20
Good to know :).
10
Perditions? Predictions, surely?
It is your kind who are predicting the Perdition that is unchecked cAGW, due to CO2 emissions.
Why do such people adopt an outward acceptance of the norm? To ensure that they remain in paid employment, of course! I do not blame them.
If they truly believe that the miniscule increase in atmospheric CO2 attributable to mankind has zilch effect on our Climate, what they twaddle in public is irrelevant.
I am an Atheist. I do, occasionally, have to attend a family Church Service. I kneel, pray, sing, even genuflect, so as not to “show up” the family. So what?
My lack of belief is unchanged.
161
Don’t be too harsh in your criticisms, Fred, Fitty is still trying to get on top of his numbers and colours.
70
Back in the Sixties and Seventies, after the Muppets first appeared, Kermit the Frog sang a song “It’s not that easy being green”. I think that, for our Oz Greens, it’s going to get a lot less easy in the coming days/weeks/months/years! Yet despite their conviction that CO2 is the cause of all of our ills, including the current bush-fires, they continue to exhale the stuff! Who’d a thunk it?
30
They certainly are Petar Fitroy…
… just like they all moved across to vote for Bill Shorten, Hillary Clinton, Remain, and Jeremy Corbyn.
310
So Fitty…
… how do you predict Catastrophic Bush Fires across Eastern Australia are cause by Climate Change when – at the same time – there are Torrential Rains and Flooding in Western Australia?
270
The Cult of Climate Crazies HAS to shout & wail about Australia’s bushfire season as it’s the ONLY place on Earth suffering from ‘warmth’ at the mo, ie. the rest of the planet (dare I say 97%) is “cooler than average” or buried under snow or shivering through record-breaking cold:
Hawaii’s Mauna Kea: -0.1°C max, -18°C wind chill, snow expected on the summit Thur/Fri.
South Pole -30°C; Greenland Summit -30°C; Arctic mean -25°C.
Snow has been falling the past few days on the higher peaks of not only NZ but also Chile, Argentina, Peru and Bolivia (southern hemisphere summer y’all).
People dying of cold in Bangladesh (not drowning – freezing!).
Snow flurries expected on Tassie’s tops this weekend…
Is there NUFFINK man-made carbon [sic] CAN’T do?!?! 🙂
150
As before, add heat energy to a chaotic system, and this is what you get.
By the way being juvenile with my name so strengthens your case, Poolos
018
You are a sprouting ignorant scientifically unsubstantiated NONSENSE, as always.
Time you grew up and learnt something passed the anti-science propaganda you are brain-washed with.
CO2 cannot and does not “add” any energy to the atmosphere.
Only a complete scientific illiterate would think that it can.
Nor does it “trap” any energy in the atmosphere.
That are provable facts, as shown by the fact that OLR does not diverge from the atmospheric temperature over time.
[SNIP. Quit personalizing the attack. PF is irrelevant. But he wants you to get angry. – Jo]
110
Jo, I’m not the least bit angry.
I’m laughing at the poor little fella. ! 😀
Giving him some reverse trolling.
That is all he wants, ATTENTION !
40
Speaking of that heat, and energy, and chaos Fitty…
Australia’s man made CO2 contribution is about .3% of the global man made CO2 contribution, and your much promoted, horror, global temperature rise is 1°C above the average at the start of the industrial era…
… so Australia’s contribution to your ‘Heat, Energy and Chaos’ is .0003°C.
Not sure that is enough energy to shift the direction of entropy.
Back to you, Fitty, for a keenly awaited response.
Cheers, your friend, Poolos.
80
Sheeple.
80
I challenge you to choose which area of bushland to go and camp in for the next month:
* one area that has proper fuel reduction process applied to it
* one thst has been locked up for 10 years and never mantained
Which one is the most likely option to see the month out alive, during this summer?
230
There has been an enormous and dramatic increase in CO2 levels around all these fires! We must therefore expect ALL life to be fried by Global Warming in the fires wake if GW theory and predictions are correct. If life reappears (trees bud, weeds grow, etc) this can ONLY mean GW is more bull from GW shareholders and GW models represent nothing relevant.
150
Massive release of CO2 which according to fits, traps heat
Intense heat release, which should be trapped.. according to fits.
Yet this morning it was only 19ºC
I await with mirth, the [SNIP] explanation of where all that heat went. 😉
[SNIP!]
110
butbutbutbut … that is GOOD CO2 because its natural ! 😉
30
[snip]
100
[snip]
You can’t even provide any evidence for the most basic farce of the AGW meme, warming by atmospheric CO2
[snip]
[Snip yourself Andy!]
80
PF
ROTFFLMFAO
You have excelled yourself here, mate….
20
Still awaiting your fantasy explanation of how “CO2 caused climate change” causes 3 consecutive very dry years in a steadily increasing rainfall trend in NSW.
It will be hilarious, that is for sure 😉
Come on, at least try to make a feeble non-science effort. !
20
Imagine if Phillip Adams had to take talkback on Radio National! That would be side splitting!
181
Have you seen this Jo?
https://grafixartphoto.com/2020/01/06/3d-visualisation-of-the-fires-in-australia-by-anthony-hearsey/
according to Yahoo the opening/first grahpic has “gone viral”, particularly the Northern Territory, it seems like a bit of a crock to me, albeit the bloke has attempted to explain it.
30
Can’t be right.
Rural fires QLD live map: Not much on. https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/map/Pages/default.aspx
Right now the fire season is spread south but going quiet in the north as the wet season comes.
140
Hmm, well that’s a much clearer picture – thank you for the reference.
20
Could do the same thing with rain. This would “prove” most of northern Australia drowns over any monsoon. The amazing statistical view is Tasmania. Put a wall around it and everyone would drown in just two years. You would think this would a good place to start diverting water to the mainland. Then there is Clause 100 of the Constitution. We would have to get political agreement.
00
Another map
https://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/
20
According to the graphic and the fir map they provide, Papua New Guinea and Indonesia are also on fire. Including some boats between Australia and Timor-Leste.
I loaded up the Firms Nasa site. It’s a horrendous load of garbage. I briefly saw a map on it, but after 15 minutes of try, I could get nothing out of it.
30
I called it as BS the other day and it originally had a disclaimer on it saying that it was a compilation of fires over a one month period but that was also garbage .
Bit like the Amazon photo trick they also capture burn offs .
50
Yes,
For our international viewers, the subtropics and tropics have their fire season in spring September – November after the dry winter. It lasts until the summer rains kick in, usually in Nov but sometimes not until January. We have seen the start of the wet season around the first week in December so the Queensland fire season is pretty much done.
South of the subtropical zone most of the rain comes in autumn , winter and spring with summer being mostly dry with night time storm activity. They have their fire seasons in late spring and summer try period. This doesn’t bode particularly well for the southern part of the continent, but most of the fires are in the great dividing rain which does benefit from night time storms fueled by the lift of the great divide (Given the right weather conditions). Whether we have a good or bad fire season there really depends on these storms.
Southern WA gets much of its weather from Antarctica from the low pressure systems that constantly circle the south pole as does Tasmania.
Fire seasons here are easy to understand if you understand the weather that brings rain here. In the north, the monsoon, in the south it’s Antarctica. In winter there is a high pressure system dominating the centre of Aus pushing rain off shore in the north, in the south the Antarctic systems extend north enough to overcome the continental high there and they get rain in the intersects. In the summer it’s lows over the continent and the reverse happens.
It’s all about air pressure and geography here.
41
The article starts off disappointingly, but evenetually gets to the critical bit that weve been saying all along….but Barnaby Joyce said it….what gives?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/hazard-reduction-burns-are-not-the-panacea-rfs-boss-20200108-p53poq.html
“Hazard reductions burns are being hampered by longer fire seasons and extreme weather, Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons says, warning the controversial technique is “not the panacea” some may be looking for to temper bushfires.
“The Commissioner on Wednesday defended the RFS’ record on hazard reduction burning, saying the agency was not comprised of “environmental bastards”, indicating prescribed burns were done with the priorities of people, property and the environment in mind.
………….
As Commissioner Fitzsimmons spoke to the ABC, Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce was on Sunrise and urged more hazard reduction burns.
“Have you seen a footpath on fire? No, because there is nothing there to burn. Have you seen a massive fire that kills people on grounds [where] there is no fuel load? People get terribly hurt but you can control it,” he said.
“Once a fire breaks out onto an area… with minimal fuel load [you] can control it. In a national park, there are always fires but it is the intensity of the fire because of the fuel load catching on fire. I believe, and this is my view, there are too many caveats, green caveats, that impedes people’s efforts.”
The Prime Minister earlier this week also called for more prescribed burns.
“You’ve got to deal with hazard management in national parks … this, of course, will be one of the things that we will consider when premiers come together after they’ve been dealing with the fires,” the Prime Minister said.
60
At least the BBC is pouring a bit of cold water on the ‘fake’ maps going viral:
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-51020564
00
Is that just the wet season or the Summer Monsoon?
00
Tony Heller looks at the outright FAKERY behind that map.
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/01/latest-fraud-from-climate-alarmists/
30
“300 per cent increase in days with extreme fire weather is predicted by 2067”
I will wait until 2067 and then check back with Rebecca Spellman for an update.
2067! and not 2066 or 2068
Note to self: 2067 would be 60 years from the original report, so the actual forecast would likely be +5 or -5 from that. Let’s call it for after 2060 and by 2075. Being fond of primes, I’ll suggest between 2063 and 2131.
And that 300% — that’s a winner, too.
140
This is just the usual hype they throw CAGW believers when thier faith is being threatened by science and facts……
80
Mmmm. Maybe some fires will be welcome. It will be pretty cold by then.
(I’m adding my umm “projections” to the mess :-D)
00
One thing right out of how many predictions in total? Even a blind squirrel will find a nut sometimes.
140
But, Garnaut couldn’t predict deadly Queensland floods of 2011, nor the deadly and economically devistating Far north Queensland floods of 2019.
Any one with an ouija board could predict bushfires in an Australian summer.
170
Why would anyone listen to an economist, it’s not called the dismal science for nothing! To top that off I’ll bet he’s a Keynesian too, which means that even his economic predictions are unlikely to be right either. Their answer to everything is “more Government spending” it’s their panacea to cure all ills.
21
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
90
Feynman would have to give it his tick of approval. Or perhaps not.
20
‘Having been given the opportunity to talk to Australians on this issue, that I was ineffective in persuading Australians that it was in our national interest to play a positive role in a global effort to mitigate the effects of climate change.’ Garnaut
Not a word on our biggest trading partner, building a new coal fired power station every other week.
110
Ironically I thought that overall the weather has been particularly cold since the start of December So I checked the BOM data. In Melbourne we have had only 5 days where the temperature is over 30 and 26 days under 25. There has not been 2 days in a row that have been over 30 yet the weather bureau has forewarned about heatwave conditions a few times. There really is no correlation of temperature and these bushfires to explain either intensity or length which reaches only one conclusion .Fuel in National Forests is at record levels, which means that when they start they are more difficult to stop . That sounds more like a correlation.
150
A few days ago they were saying Penrith was the “hottest place on Earth”. I thought the firefighters were facing temperatures a good deal higher than the good burghers of Penrith.
Just wait till the BOM works out a way to include the temperature at the heart of the fires into the local weather stations. Then we’ll see some real warming!
150
Many years ago it was said that Marble Bar was the hottest place in Australia.
70
Does anyone else yearn for a good old fashioned Summer
With a week long heat wave above 35 . degrees
Because of a blocking high
In the Tasman ?
Now that was Summer !
It has NOT happened at all so far this time.
Instead we get 1-2 days of hot temps
With a cool change
70
I remember the UKMet Office’s “A Barbecue Summer.” (July 2009). Hah. Kayaks and canoes were … ummm … floating off the shop shelves.
The only thing they have learned is not to make public their
predictionsprojections.That was the summer after Britain had been covered with that stuff children weren’t going to see again in their lifetimes: snow from Lands End to John O’Groats … for the second time.
10
Here in Geelong, I came to the same conclusion merely by monitoring my garden temperature gauge and the phone weather app.
No two days in a row of 30+ temps, and so far only two days over 40 degrees but separated by a few days of low 20s.
Yet constantly the BoM is shrieking about extreme heatwave conditions in the next few days.
Last week the forecast for one day was 37 degrees. It didn’t happen.
Even the warmies that I talked to were amazed that the predictions were wrong. This is great!
The Bom is over-egging the pudding. Hopefully more people see through the alarmist scares.
20
Here’s the key phrase:
incredible adj. 1 that cannot be believed. 2 colloq. hard to believe; amazing.
Not credible then; not credible now.
150
Then there’s “incredulous” –
adj. Sceptical, disbelieving.
Not credulous; not given to believe readily; skeptical.
30
Jan 2020: Should fossil fuels pay for Australia’s new bushfire reality? It is the industry most responsible
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/07/should-fossil-fuels-pay-for-australias-new-bushfire-reality-it-is-the-industry-most-responsible?__twitter_impression=true
Jan 2011: Coal miners to blame for Queensland floods, says Australian Greens leader Bob Brown
GREENS leader Bob Brown says the coal mining industry should foot the bill for the floods because it helped cause them.
https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/coal-miners-to-blame-for-queensland-floods-says-australian-greens-leader-bob-brown/news-story/cbfe12042fa9c4149ea3c10524f57344
Science.
80
Of course, the flood damage had nothing to do with building houses on flood plains just because there had not been a flood for a couple of years.
20
The problem is, the hypocritical, fossil fuel using, virtual signalling $CAGW$ gang primarily get their “facts” from the ABC.
Lets see how their ABC reports on the reality of the fires.
That people think fuel loads/arsonists/dry lightning strikes etc can somehow be controlled by lowering/halting co2 levels in Australia…is so beyond intelligent..that it cannot be debated.
If they are that thick..then what chance does anyone have of talking to them.?
And by the way lads..get off the grid and sell the car before you lecture anyone..you just beclown yourself otherwise…
Packham has told me what actually happened:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/abc-interviews–a-sceptic-for-35-minutes-on-the-fires-and-rejects-all-but-69-words/news-story/4fa5981e575c6f2ad48806aa61d3340d
160
Our once esteemed Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Has become the un-Australian Brainwashing Corporation
That’s a tragedy for us all in Australia
And a waste of our money !
sack the unprofessional stupid cultish bastards !
40
The ABC is now the media unit of the far left socialist green and labor parties, it no longer represents Australia as a whole just the rabid left 10% .
So why not give it 10% of the funding they currently get .
60
Man started controlling the Australian flora with regular burning about 45,000 years ago (+/- a little bit).
11
Any supporting data for that baseless claim?
00
As of yesterday I believe the 180 arsonists is only for New South Wales the number in Queensland is about 100.
90
The SMH has quite a good (!) story on this today, and includes:
” This fire season, police have taken legal action – ranging from cautions to charges – against 180 people including 24 people charged over deliberately lit bushfires, 53 who allegedly failed to comply with a total fire ban and 47 who allegedly discarded a lit cigarette or match. ”
…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/teenager-among-180-people-facing-legal-action-over-lighting-fires-20200107-p53pla.html?btis
…
The context suggests these are NSW numbers.
Cheers
Dave B
50
Interesting that the ABC is running a disinformation campaign stating the 200 number is taken out of context and propagated by botnets:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/fires-misinformation-being-spread-through-social-media/11846434
Which is it ABC? Or are they simply being deceptive by carefully manipulated language?
“Some of the tweets took police figures out of context and claimed almost 200 arsonists had been arrested in NSW.
The actual number of people charged with deliberately lighting a fire is 24 — even fewer managed to spark large blazes.”
Never mind that the ABC endlessly pushes the complete fiction that the fires are due to climate change as opposed to natural weather patterns.
The only way CO2 is perhaps a culprit is due to the increased greening by being plant food, thereby increasing fuel load growth.
90
There you go.
The ABC defending Arsonists, and all it took was someone prepared to state the obvious.
Keep the perssure on, and Murdoch, Bob Brown, Albanese, the whole Gang will be defendi ng
Arsonists.
”How dare you call 24 arsonists, Arsonists? How dare you?
10
Oops, I definitely didn’t mean that green tick.
Hatband, what’s this about Murdoch?
00
People are not only deceived by fake news stories, they are also deceived by media not highlighting achievements;
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/10/08/australia-wont-give-money-green-climate-fund-says-pm/
40
Given the link source I noted a misquote or creative journalism: “Morrison also noted that it was the Abbott-led Liberal government that signed up to the 2015 accord – unlike in the US, where there has since been a change of government.
“I was part of that government, and when Australia puts its words to something it means something,” Morrison said.
Wrong!
The Abbott led government Cabinet agreed in a majority for the emissions target to be taken to the IPCC Paris Conference which was held late in November until early in December 2015. PM Abbott was replaced by PM Turnbull, a member of his Cabinet, in September 2015.
The Paris Agreement was signed in New York by Minister Hunt in April 2016, and ratified in New York November 2016.
It is curious why people want to blame PM Abbott and therefore not give credit to PM Turnbull?
100
Perhaps it’s an effective way of re-writing history in the pursuit of pulling down good albeit imperfect people such as Abbott and protect the ones that are perhaps wolves in sheep’s clothing. Alternatively, it could be a simple matter of an honest mistake on the part of Morrison due to the presence of many propagandists today driven by the latter type of people in the my first explanation. That’s why we need to be careful how we interpret ones agenda. Evil people can be very clever at misleading others. Hitler was very good at that. I consider Morrison a well meaning person but lacks rigour and honesty in the pursuit of the truth. He still maintains it’s a good thing that we continue reducing our emissions, which most of us here know for a fact is totally useless, counter productive and perhaps even economic suicide for the nation.
60
I think hes just telling them what they want to hear, while not caving to the UN demands….
30
That might be so and if true that makes him a dishonest coward who knows the truth but doesn’t follow through with it in public office.
10
No, it makes him an astute politician picking his way carefully through the minefield that crippled one PM who was replaced because he would not cooperate with the socialists globalists.
Did you read the article Peter?
00
At Breitbart, quoting “The Conversation”, some 85% of the bushfires are human caused.
“About 85 per cent are related to human activity, 13 per cent confirmed arson and 37 per cent suspected arson,” he said. “The remainder are usually due to reckless fire lighting or even just children playing with fire.”
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/01/06/police-in-australia-begin-massive-criminal-investigation-into-bushfire-arson/?fbclid=IwAR3bAVlkhTZ3d3dRxT95Gl8Hhx77Db3vDGG-4ILdAGqVqUCdPqlGZj3Xw_Q
30
It will be most interesting to learn about the arsonists, who they are and what were the motives.
I suspect politics played a role.
50
Also they should be treated in like fashion as terrorists. If they are too young and the immaturity card is used then have their parents made responsible. Someone has to be made responsible. Oh I just remembered. No care and no responsibility is the norm these days.
80
Some “old school” managemnt of these people is required…
70
Yes that would not go astray if the perpetrator is too young but we all know that’s not allowed any more. Even so the parents still need to be held account.
20
NSW police has set up a strike force called “Indarra” to investigate the causes of multiple fires. Seems to have been triggered by the almost simultaneous start of the two fires down near Albury, called “Green Valley, Talmalmo” (182,083 ha at 2:19 am 8/1/20, being controlled), started in the Ellerslie Nature Reserve; and “Dunns Road” (313,792 ha at 10:56 pm 7/1/20, out of control) started in Woomagama National Park.
…
Information from the NSW RFS “Fires near me” iPad app today.
…
The above two fires have moved SE into Victoria and the NSW alpine region., into and through a few more National Parks which rarely, if ever have been mentioned in our always reliable news outlets, the ABC and SMH. And certainly never by our economics trained experts like Garnaut and Gittens.
Cheers
Dave B
40
James Delingpole as well has choice words about the bushfires. I do believe he has invented a new descriptor: Wankerati.
“So, to be clear, there is zero evidence of any change in climatic conditions that might have increased the likelihood or severity of these bush fires. This is not — repeat NOT — a man-made climate change story, and anyone who claims otherwise is either a gullible idiot or a lying charlatan.
There is, nonetheless, good reason to believe that the stupidity and irresponsibility of man is at least partly to blame for this disaster — just not quite in the way that the left-liberal MSM and the green wankerati would have you believe.”
https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/01/05/delingpole-environmentalists-made-australias-bush-fires-worse-there-is-zero-evidence-of-any-change-in-climatic-conditions-that-might-have-increased-the-likelihood-or-severity-of-these-bush-fire/
20
Look Out for bots & trolls …
Bots and trolls spread false arson claims in Australian fires ‘disinformation campaign’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/twitter-bots-trolls-australian-bushfires-social-media-disinformation-campaign-false-claims
Police take legal action against more than 180 people so far during 2019/2020 bushfire season
https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D
30
It’s nice to see the Guardian get their fingers jammed in the door. Heck, those fact thingies are really inconvenient …
10
I am still waiting for the Australian Brain washing Corporation to run with “
“..
80
That would follow on from one comment from a leftist who blurted out his belief coal fired power stations should no longer be built because they are incompatible with renewables. I wish that person would go to China and tell them that.
60
If blogs and social media stopped re-posting and linking to their ideological scrawls almost no one would know about what they write. Every time a daft guardian article is re-posted they get ad revenue and free publicity. So why would they stop writing garbage?
40
And where’s the page 3 girl?
30
Those were the days. Thanks for the mammaries.
80
Found this chart of NSW rainfall (have not verified the data)
As you can see, trending upwards, except for the last 3 years
This is NOTHING to do with “climate change”, it is a series 3 of abnormally dry years.
90
So is CO2. What this means is more bush to burn and a greater need to make people safe from the predictable fires, whoever lights them. I remember three years ago when faux scientists Flannery blamed the NSW fires on Global Warming and it turned out the army started the fire.
It is amazing that we are talking about fault, not about remedies. There needs to be an acceptance in the Media that bushfires are perfectly natural and regular. Australians need to be bushfire safe.
And the idea that carbon taxes will change world temperatures and prevent bushfires is just nuts. I can’t believe I even have to point this out.
90
Goes to show the MSM by and large are as blind as the CAGW alarmists. It follows the people need to wake up and turn on their brains otherwise we as a nation will continue to slide into the abyss.
30
The flora will recover fast with all the CO2 in the atmosphere.
00
Willis did a good write up on that in WUWT a few days back.
40
He put up this graph which illustrates that Australia has been wetter since WW2.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Drranom%26area%3Dnsw%26season%3D0112%26ave_yr%3D0
40
Yep, its just been a 3 year rather deficit of rainfall
… occurring after a period of above average rainfall in a trend of increasing rainfall.
Of course there was extra growth, due to that period of above average rainfall.
Of course 3 years of well below average rainfall (called a drought, btw) all that extra fuel load has become very dry and combustible.
This can’t possibly be an effect of CO2, or “climate change”.
It a facet of normal Australia climate variability, and the neglect and lock-up National Parks and State Forests being allowed to build up this fuel load.
Houses built on the periphery of these areas should have significant, well maintained fire-breaks
There should be significant fire breaks with these forests.
And all main access roads should also have at least 20m either side of them of cleared and maintained fire breaks.
Hopefully these fires will wake people up to the dangers of the Australian climate in bush areas, and stop some of the ridiculous building practices that have occurred in some of these areas.
40
typo correction…
“There should be significant fire breaks within these forests.”
10
A question for the self-appointed “climate” gurus/shills (Gee + fits)
Which of the climate models predicted the driest 3 year period in NSW for a long time..
when the data shows and most climate models predict, an increasing rainfall trend
If they cannot “predict” basic weather 2-3 years out, they have absolutely no chance of going out to 20, 50 years or or any other period
That makes them TOTALLY USELESS.
10
Amazing prescience. So in 2008 Ross Garnaut predicted bushfires in 2019? Who would have thought an increase of 1.2C in 120 years, +0.10 would so endanger Australia. When you consider that no animal or plant can detect a change of 0.1C it is clear that we were at an invisbile tipping point in 2008 followed by catastrophic sensitivity to temperatures in the Australian bush. This is an amount of warming you could not even measure on most thermometers, but Dr Garnaut knew all about it.
Of course the 180 people charged with fire bug offences had nothing to do with the fires. And these were only those caught. So what is the real figure Ross? 2,000 people? And how many of those are simply fulfilling the predictions of the many journalists, economists, sociologists, labor politicians and ecologists and anthropoligists (Christina Figureres is an anthropologist) who have been predicting disaster unless we pay carbon taxes.
At least Piers Morgan is certain that the Australian bushfires are a direct result of Climate Change, despite the record cold last year around the world. And the extinction rebellion people are also certain. All we need is to hear from the Rapture people or the catastrophists of the Mayan excinction.
When did the loonies take over science? Climate scientology is now a science free zone. Science is never discussed. It is now the Climate Gospel. And there will be hellfire and brimstone if the carbon taxes are not paid. Again.
90
1987
70
Andy,Jo came up with a temp increase of 0.9c since the beginning of the industrial revolution, whereas you quote 1.2 c increase in the last 120 years. Can you both agree on a number? I promote Jo’s blog at every opportunity to Sceptics and Dunderheads alike on Facebook and conflicting data regardless of how small is not a good look from what is a science centric blog.
00
Sorry, my post above was intend for TDeF.
00
I know I nag on this, but…
Clearly we need to dismantle all non-hydro renewables and do other harsh but responsible things like limiting EVs on public roads (barring special licencing) and prohibiting the use of diesel for mainstream power. (Stopping the hyper-expensive and strategically unsound diesel option stops a lot of white elephants because Big Green knows renewables will be exposed without it.)
Coal must be modernised from pit to switch and its reach must be extended to all areas of Australia where it is the most economical choice. That coal needs to power fast, all-hours metro transport which frees up roads for vehicles and does not obstruct those roads and the adjacent businesses. Humans must be re-engaged in parks and forests, all kinds of recreational and commercial use must be encouraged. Like the indigenous people before us, we need to shape the bush to our needs while conserving what has value beyond the immediately practical.
It’s clear and simple, but it seems impossible right now because of the power of the media. Here on the NSW midcoast neither the temperatures nor winds have been abnormal for summer, yet if I so much as glance at a headline it will be convincing me of an “angry summer”. So I avoid even glancing at media beyond what’s needed for alerts of possible new events and for sports gossip (though I doubt that even sports gossip is harmless).
What’s real and extreme about our fire-prone weather here is drought. 1902 and 1915 were our driest, now 2019 has that distinction. (It’s different for Sydney, whose two driest years on record remain those of the 1800s with the rest of the fifth percentile being before 1969. Fact!)
So here’s my nag again…
We cannot win unless we turn off the refuse media. Whether it’s angry summer in Oz or silicon dummies in Christchurch…it’s all fibs, and it’s all fibs on principle. An habitual fibber cannot tell the truth even when it doesn’t matter. He won’t so much as give you the right time of day because truth is too strange for him, too weakening.
We have to turn off the globsters’ main weapon. Turn them OFF.
Stop globalism. Do tradition, family, privacy, property. And do coal.
90
Good point. Who pays for the overhead to run and maintain diesel backup?
Not the white-elephant owners who caused that cost.
60
Those responsible for the unmanaged fuel loads plus pyro-terrorists that caused Australia’s bushfires must be severely punished.
100
Actually the former group of people should be punished much harder than the pyro-terrorists. At least the latter are forcing the issue and reducing fuel loads on a mass scale, which would have happened naturally eventually anyway without them, perhaps even leading to much worse fires as the fuel loads continue to build up and a much higher loss of property and life thanks to the lack of proper land management close to populated areas. Besides I thought we all agreed that most of the fires were caused by natural means in remote areas.
40
Shouldn’t it be noster Ross Garnaut? Or does they identify as female?
20
Jo’s not trying out her high school Latin; she’s referring to Nostradamus, an earlier celebrated expert in the occult art of unfalsifiable prediction.
10
It took me a while to work that one out! Nostragarnus, perhaps?
00
Why isn’t the terrorism angle being investigated? Even the Socialist Morning Herald from 2012 reported that it was a specifically promoted terrorist activity. Are authorities too PC to investigate?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/scorched-earth-terror-threat-20120505-1y5o6.html
50
An argument from authority is inherently defeasible. (See eg, Douglas Walton, Appeals to Expert Opinion)
To be valid (an argument from expert opinion) it requires (Inter alia) (A) an expert qualified in the field (ie specialised knowledge in a field of skill); (B) a settled field of opinion.
The claim that co2 will lead to catastrophic warming can presently never be the subject of a valid argument from expert opinion as (B) cannot be satisfied (there is a range of qualified opinion on the effect of co2, not a consensus of appropriately qualified experts).
The media (and many others), of course, habitually ignore (A).
Now, to the claim “How a bombshell report PREDICTED Australia’s bushfire crisis with eerie precision 12 years ago.”
(1) Garnaut is an economist and cannot make any valid predictions in an area that is not within his field of expertise (if we accept economist can make predictions at all).
(2) As Garnaut apparently merely picks one paper (Lucas et al 2007) for the “prediction”. I doubt that cherry picking a particular article that suits his ideological viewpoint would fall within his area of expertise.
(3) climate science ‘predictions’ are inherently dubious because they lack a control group. This means the predictions are susceptible to to objection based on the “post hoc ergo propter hoc” [“after this, therefore because of this.”] ie “Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X.” That is, in the instant case: “Since event Y [bushfires] followed event X [‘climate change’], event Y must have been caused by event X.”
70
It is not a debate, it is science. Arguments don’t come into it, only facts.
111
No, all scientific hypotheses or theories are arguments predicated on an interpretation of certain facts or observed states.
70
Nope.
A valid hypothesis must be falsifiable. All else is conjecture.
110
A hypothesis is only proposed for the sake of an argument.
but thanks for your acknowledgment that climate science, as it is unfalsifiable (no control group), is mere conjecture and so subject to the “post hoc ergo propter hoc” objection.
110
“A valid hypothesis must be falsifiable. All else is conjecture”
LOL !
Great that you now see that “anthropogenic climate change” is NOTHING but a baseless conjecture.
Now shoot your other foot, bozo. !
90
Bingo.
Falsifiable. When compared to real data.
Like: The Ordovician Period was an Ice Age, with CO2 levels 10 times those of present times.
Or: Renewable Energy Lowers Costs vs the reality of Increased costs
Or: Capitalism and Constitutional Law based societies ALWAYS provide higher living standards and greater Liberty than any Socialist culture has ever produced.
We can do this for hours.
The point is this: Reality ALWAYS has the last laugh. Ideology ALWAYS has an Excuse.
80
Hi again, Fitty,
Just explain what Falsifiable Condition validates your CO2 Causes Climate Change Theory.
For the life of me everything I can come up with only confirms your theory…
Polar Vortex, heat waves, cold snaps, droughts, floods, empty dams, no snow, blizzards, bush fires, spasmodic and localised sea level rise, spasmodic and localised sea level fall, spasmodic and localised seal level stability, historical records, Roman Warm Period, Medieval Wrm Perios, Little Ice Age, Ice at both the North and South Pole at the that one, Fitty – you’ll find it interesting).
So this question to you – if every condition validates your CO2/Climate Change Theory – how are we ever to know when this Catastrophic Climate Change reverses course once all the man-made CO2 is removed.
70
Yet you have NO FACTS, do you fits.
60
“it is science”
Of which you have NONE.
STILL WAITING for your empirical science that shows warming by increased atmospheric CO2.
You are batting an absolute ZERO so far.
60
Thank Goodness, Fitty,
Finally you are going to present the facts that prove CO2 causes Climate Change.
I’m cheering for you now, buddy.
Bring on the facts… prove the contributors and Admin of this blog are wrong…
Back over to you pal – as always keenly awaiting you producing the scientific facts/data/evidence.
Show us what you have – rise to my challenge – anything you have on hand is good.
Ohhh… and it must be real scientific method – you know – able to be verified and replicated… that sort of stuff.
As always, your, mate, Poolos.
80
Peat-er said:
Yay! When are you going start?
This year?
Or next?
40
I heard this the other day:
Denial is the basis of scientific advancement.
eg I don’t believe the world is flat.
So when the loony left says the science is settled, I guess a new knowledge dark age looms.
70
I think more accurately, science cannot be proven, it can only be disproven. The C14 radio carbon dating proves conclusively that there is almost no fossil fuel CO2 in the air. Whether CO2 produces warming is irrelevant if we do not control CO2. In fact what the IPCC is proposing without evidence is that CO2 levels are not subject to equilibrium, which is as unlikely as it is unproven.
The Looney left is a political group. It does not care. Any more than the Democrats care whether Donald Trump is doing a good job. Or whether Tony Abbott was a great Prime Minister. Most importantly in the last 18 months the Looney Left has decided facts are irrelevant. With Trump, Abbott/Morrison and Global Warming, which is not happening.
Their view is that debate is finished, when it never started.
140
And your proof is? Where does all the man made CO2 go to then?
111
In the oceans, sir.
As you know, CO2 doesn’t make the world warmer and unfortunately global cooling has begun. I have proof.
90
We have know it since the 1950s. Try this paper in the British Royal Society in 1958, before it was all invented.
“carbon-14 specific activity of atmospheric carbon dioxide has decreased by 2.03 ± 0.15% over the period 1860 to 1954, and that the present-day difference between the decrease in the northern and southern hemispheres is less than 0.50%.”
So where has it gone? Into the ocean, the giant reservoir of all gases and where life on earth originated. We carry our salt water blood with us and out 400m2 wet lungs. In embryonic development humans have gills for a time.
Half of all oxygen is created by phytoplankton in the vast oceans which cover 3/4 of the planet. They get their CO2 from water. And gas exchanges rapidly between the water and the air or the fish and we would die. CO2 in particular as it is the most soluble, the most compressible, as we know from beer, champagne, soda water, lemonade, especially when cold.
And it compresses at 1 atmosphere per 10 metres so there is vastly more CO2 sloshing around in the world’s oceans, 50x as much as in the air. None of this is controversial.
What is controversial is the suggestion that fossil fuel CO2 is doomed to stay out of the water. How does that work?
Everything is in equilibrium. If CO2 in the atmosphere has gone up, I expect the water surface temperature has increased slightly, nothing more. More CO2 does not cause warming. Warming causes more CO2.
50
And all living things output CO2, even trees at night. We use this fact to make bread, cheese, wine, beer, CO2 from mighty yeast cells. The output by almighty humans with aircraft and cars and power stations might seem a lot, but from the air we are just ants on the golf course. Ants with delusions of grandeur. 10% of our CO2 is swapped out with the ocean every year in a continuous exchange called equilibrium and like water, CO2 will always seek its own level. And as Henry’s Law says, that is set entirely by ocean surface temperature.
50
… just a minor correction TdeF:
20
Poor fits,
You have no evidence or comprehension of anything, do you ! 🙂
And the really funny thing is your belligerent determination to stay that way.
Totally CLUELESS.
80
Into the flora, into the oceans, as it has always been.
Where is your proof that it DOESN’T? Eh?
You’ve claimed a position. Now defend it.
60
You are starting to scare me, Fitty,
I have a solution for you as you seem to be promoting the removal of man-made CO2 from the global system…
… just take one, deep, breath…
… and hold.
As ever,
Poolos
30
that is skepticism not denial. Denial is sticking to what you think in the face of evidence to the contrary.
“I don’t care what you say, I still think the world is flat”.
As for “science cannot be proven”, is such a malformed view of science that it is hard to know where to start. Science is a way that humans seek to understand things. So often you hear people equate things or data(planets, cells, C12/13/14 ratios) with science .
11
‘Denial is sticking to what you think in the face of evidence to the contrary.’
You and Fitz are covert members of the Denialati?
We believe the sun, moon and gas giants determine weather on earth and has nothing to do with a benign trace gas.
50
great elG
20
Ironic you mention the world being flat as a case of denial but aren’t the computer models you love so much based on a flat earth ?
30
Locally flat yes, not globally flat. The distinction is important but there is much room for improvement. Here is some recent progress
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/39/19330
20
LOL, great little FANTASY wish list 😉
You really do have a propensity for faceplanting, don’t you GA
You have just shown what everyone here already knows.
Climate models are incomplete , are non-scientific, and therefore are invariably WRONG
Well done. ! 🙂
30
Leaf I thought you said the science was settled and now you say there is room for improvement? Which one is correct ?
30
happy to admit to saying that if you show me where. Did you read the article?
23
Yes, did you….
Did you comprehend JUST HOW BAD current models really are !!!
They are effectively saying that all their previous models were incomplete, worthless and substandard
Very much like you, GA.
40
So the science isn’t settled ?
10
Of course not and I’d never use such a phrase. If you want to discuss science I’ve given you an interesting paper to dissect and refute if you can.
10
Now all they have to do is add in the auto-compression which leads to the temperature controlling gravity thermal gradient..
.. and they can remove all CO2 assumptions and fallacies from their models.
Won’t that be grand.. getting nearer a realistic model.
But it would be the end of the anti-CO2 crusade.
So they can’t do it.
10
“Denial is sticking to what you think in the face of evidence to the contrary.”
So you are in DENIAL of the fact that there is no scientific evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2
Is that what you are telling us?
30
“a malformed view of science”
I see you have tried looking at climate science, hey GA
Totally malformed as to be a farce.
Are you finally waking up to reality ?
30
Morning again all,
The ABC also has a story praising Garnaut…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/economic-bushfires-billions-ross-garnaut-climate-change/11848388
Cheers
Dave B
40
It may still be possible to find some interesting background on Ross Garnaut by scanning the ever-more-statist and algo-censored internet. You may find that the guy minding our blood bank has been known to don a black cape and show some very sharp canine teeth.
That’s all I’ll say about Ross “Heavy Metal” Garnaut.
30
Professor Garnaut, member of the Rockefeller-Soros-Clinton Trilateral Commission for a new world order.
https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Ross_G._Garnaut Trilateral
70
How do some people get their fingers into so many pies?
40
His life has been very full. Full to overflow. Rather like a tailings dam.
20
“Rather like a tailings dam.”
Or an old septic tank.
20
They volunteer to help with everything
00
When your ‘science’ climate prediction fails …
Feb 2019: Dry lightning has set Tasmania ablaze, and climate change makes it more likely to happen again
https://theconversation.com/dry-lightning-has-set-tasmania-ablaze-and-climate-change-makes-it-more-likely-to-happen-again-111264
1 Jan 2020: NorthernDailyLeader: AAP: Cops hunt Tas arsonist amid emergency fire
A deliberately-lit bushfire in northeast Tasmania is sparking an emergency warning as winds increase.
https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6562468/cops-hunt-tas-arsonist-amid-emergency-fire/?cs=9397
1 Jan 2020: Tasmanian Police are investigating a number of bushfires they believe were deliberately lit on the southern island.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6119161106001
30
*Carbonarson a la Van Diemen’s Land now causes:
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/MtMawson/6day/top
Friday 10 Jan, “light snow”.
Saturday 11 Jan, “snow showers, 0°C, -10°C wind chill”.
Let’s see whose prediction comes true…
10
I recall the ABC blaming climate change for the 2019 Tasmanian bushfires, as they would. However later in 2019, there was a program, on the ABC, something like Catalyst, in which it was said that lack of means of obtaining weather data and access to the areas were contributors.
20
Yesterday morning on 3AW there was a discussion about climate change. One comment made was that Australian average temperatures have increased 1°C over the past decade thereby implying that the increase is caused by climate change. The problem is what does average mean. I look at Deniliquin long term climate temperatures. The airport BOM site has been operating since 1993. When I get an average of the ten years of data 2010 to 2019 I find that the change from 2009 is 0°C. This means that, to get a Australian average increase of 1°C, somewhere else must have got an increase of greater than 1°C. That’s why averages are useless.
All of this is based on the average maximum temperatures. No discussion about average minimum temperatures.
Then there is another issue. In the Long term data pages, the BOM has a disclaimer “Data within the table which are in italics represent observations which have not been fully quality controlled, a process which may take a number of months to complete. While these data may be correct, you should exercise caution in their use.” The problem is that over the ten year period there is much data in italics, ie not quality controlled, for example Feb, Apr and Oct 2017. Over the 10 years, a total of ten months have not been quality controlled, for example Feb, Apr and October 2017. In other words for 8% of the data, caution should be exercised in it’s use.
20
The ‘average’ human has one breast and one testicle.
You should exercise caution with their use.
40
and don’t consume anything carcinogenic …
00
Even if the sudden big rise in temperature is real, which of course it isn’t, what do the alarmists want us to do about it before next summer? Slit our throats? How about they do it first.
30
The average minimum at Deniliquin over the same ten year period 2010 to 2019 has dropped 10.3°C from to 10°C so it’s getting cooler but we don’t hear anything about that.
10
23m49s to 38m: interview with Craig Kelly re Piers Morgan “interview” etc.
39m25s to 42m57s : McLaren reads from the 2003 Royal Commission Report on bushfires, plus commentary.
for listener response, keep listening to the end of the audio. some good bits.
AUDIO: 52m37s: 2GB: Wake Up Australia with Michael McLaren
https://www.2gb.com/podcast/wake-up-australia-8th-january/
AUDIO: 16m10s: 7 Jan: 2GB: Jane Marwick: Retired Army Major in his 70’s saves three properties
Major Russell Smith lives at Bundara, 20 minutes south west of Anglers Rest which is 30 mins west of Omeo in Victoria.
On Saturday he was burnt over, but saved his house and winter wood pile, then did the same for his neighbor and then saved a holiday cabin.
Bush fire expert David Packham says “This is the most remarkable save by a single person under the worst fire conditions. It is a story that needs to be told.”
https://www.2gb.com/podcast/retired-army-major-in-his-70s-saves-three-properties/
30
I would like to see the scientific analysis and reasoning that leads them to predict worsening bushfires.
Not just the superficial false logic of a warmer and drier climate equals worse bushfires.
Because once rainfall drops below a certain level, dangerous bushfires do not happen, because the forest fuel level is not high enough, like in most of Australia.
Also once rainfall is too high, less flammable rainforest type species are more common and very dry condition are rare.
So they can only predict worse bushfire by showing that there will be long wet periods to grow the fuel, followed by extreme drought.
I think Jo has shown that it is ludicrous to claim their modelling would be able to predict that.
10
OT but the law of unintended consequences strikes again , a walkway constructed to protect rock paintings caught fire and has all but wiped out the paintings .
The walkway was made of recycled plastic .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/ancient-rock-art-lost-after-plastic-walkway-explodes-in-bushfire/11848938
40
Now that is really funny! 😀
10
Ominous Parallels
“The term “Reichstag fire” is used to denote a calamitous event staged by a political movement, orchestrated in a manner that casts blame on their opponents, thus causing the opponents to be viewed with suspicion by the general public.”
:
“Reichstag fire 1933”
The Reichstag building burnt down, the Nazis blaming a communist.
“The Nazi Party used the fire as a pretext to claim that communists were plotting against the German government, and the event is considered pivotal in the establishment of Nazi Germany.”
At the time any person question the “Truths” of this event would have been quickly silenced.
:
“Reichstag fire Australia 2020”
Australia has a major bushfire.
“The UN et al. used the fire as a pretext to claim that carbon dioxide is creating catastrophic climate events and the event is considered pivotal in the establishment of New World Order.”
At the time any person question the “Truths” of this event have been quickly silenced.
30
now act on the Indigenous people’s recommendations on hazard reduction etc.
CAGW caused camels to thrive and multiply. sad, but necessary:
Shooters get green light to cull 10000 feral camels
The Australian – 6 Jan 2020
Aboriginal leaders in South Australia have ordered the first massive cull of feral camels that are wreaking havoc in remote communities…
7 Jan: ABC: Camel cull in South Australia’s remote APY Lands to begin, following sharp increase in population
By Isadora Bogle
The first mass cull of feral camels in South Australia’s remote north-west will start tomorrow, after dry conditions have seen the pest’s numbers dramatically increase in the region as they seek water.
The population increase has resulted in significant damage to infrastructure and is a danger to families and communities in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara (APY) Lands, according to the South Australian Department for Environment and Water (DEW)…
APY Lands manager Richard King: “Some people, in this sort of weather, are unable to put their air conditioners on, for fear that the animals are going to attack their air conditioners for their moisture.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/camel-cull-in-apy-lands-begins/11848716
7 Jan: news.com.au: Indigenous leaders give go-ahead for massive cull of 10,000 feral camels in remote South Australia
by Shannon Molloy; Additional reporting by Ben Graham
“We have been stuck in stinking hot and uncomfortable conditions, feeling unwell, because the camels are coming in and knocking down fences, getting in around the houses and trying to get to water through airconditioners,’’ Marita Baker, board member of the APY executive, told The Australian…
“For many years traditional owners in the west of the APY Lands have mustered feral camels for sale, but this has been unable to manage the scale and number of camels that congregate in dry conditions,” a spokesperson for the SA Department of Environment and Water told news.com.au…
Experts indicate there are more than 1.2 million feral camels in Australia – particularly concentrated in the country’s centre.
But they continue to spread further afield, including into farmland in the southeast coastal district of Western Australia…
Despite culling efforts between 2009 and 2013, which resulted in the deaths of 160,000 camels in Central Australia using ground-based and aerial culling techniques, the population has now swelled to around 1.2 million.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/indigenous-leaders-give-goahead-for-massive-cull-of-10000-feral-camels-in-remote-south-australia/news-story/99b32183f8cd55470bda221b64223095
30
7 Jan: UK Mirror: Thousands of feral camels in Australia to be killed to help global warming
by Lorraine King
The five-day long culling also follows fears that the camels are a contributor to global warming as they emit methane gases equating to one tonne of carbon dioxide a year.
Tim Moore, chief executive of carbon farming specialists RegenCo, said one million feral camels emitting the effect of a tonne of CO2 per year was akin to an additional 400,000 cars on the road.
APY hopes the culling will lead to carbon credits being awarded…
According to National Feral Camel Management Plan, the feral camel population would double every nine years if a pest control plan is not introduced…
But the country’s Department of Energy and Environment said emissions from feral animals such as camels should not be included in emissions estimate as they are not under domestic management.
A statement says: “Australia does not report on emissions from feral animals.
“Therefore, activities that change the emissions from feral animals cannot be subject to an Emissions Reduction Fund method, as they are unable to result in eligible carbon abatement and cannot contribute to Australia’s emissions reduction targets.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/thousands-feral-camels-australia-killed-21233214
20
veganuary pandemonium!
7 Jan: UK Mirror: TGI Fridays launches vegan steak for £12.99 – made from watermelon
American chain TGI Fridays is the latest big name to offer an plant-based take on one of the classics – and it’s marinated in garlic and seasoned with spicy sriracha for a ‘distinctive and fiery taste’
By Naimah Archibald
Veganuary is in full swing and retailers are coming in from all angles to offer consumers new plant-based products as the craze picks up speed.
The latest restaurant chain to join in on the movement is TGI Fridays who have unveiled their new vegan watermelon steak.
For £12.99, more than half the price of a 16-ounce sirloin beef steak, health conscious and animal loving diners can enjoy “fresh watermelon carefully cut into steak slices then chargrilled to create its unique steak-like texture.”…
A plant-based steak bake from Greggs, vegan tuna from Wagamama’s and a week of deals on the vegetarian options at McDonald’s are just a few examples of restaurants looking to cash in on the current plant-based pandemonium…
Not wanting to be left out, most of the major supermarkets will launch new vegan product lines this month which include no duck spring rolls, no chicken kievs, BBQ jackfruit and more…
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/tgi-fridays-launches-vegan-steak-21230087
10
6 Jan: Bloomberg: A $1 Billion Solar Plant Was Obsolete Before It Ever Went Online
SolarReserve’s Crescent Dunes received backing from Citigroup and the Obama Energy Department but couldn’t keep pace with technological advances.
By Chris Martin and Nic Querolo
Steven Chu, the U.S. Department of Energy secretary at the time, offered the company government loan guarantees, and Harry Reid, then the Senate majority leader and senior senator from Nevada, cleared the way for the company to build on public land. At a Washington celebration of SolarReserve’s public funding, Chief Executive Officer Kevin Smith told the assembled politicians, “We’re proud to be doing our part to win the future.”…
SolarReserve may have done its part, but today the company doesn’t rank among the winners. Instead, it’s mired in litigation and accusations of mismanagement at Crescent Dunes, where taxpayers remain on the hook for $737 million in loan guarantees. Late last year, Crescent Dunes lost its only customer, NV Energy Inc., which cited the plant’s lack of reliability…
A buyer might try to bring Crescent Dunes back on line, or its owner could sell it for parts…READ ON FOR ALL THE SPIN, INCLUDING A GREAT ENDING
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-06/a-1-billion-solar-plant-was-obsolete-before-it-ever-went-online
20
I’ve moved my mind forward to 2100 and just had a reality check. It’s the same old, same old. Still arguing about all the failed predictions as we keep the home fires burning because the coal fired power stations have been closed or demolished, the Snowy water pipes are frozen solid and the pollies are still spruiking RETs, the wonders of solar panels and wind farms.
Trouble is, we’re sitting around our hearth trying to stay warm and wondering where our next meal is coming from since we are now into our 200th day of no sunlight, snow everywhere and gale force winds…and that’s just in Brisbane…!!!
40
Any one who knows anything about the effect of sun spot activity could have predicted a severe bush fire season. Coupled with poor bay maintenance and bingo!!. Most extremes are on the sun spot cycle but no one is prepared to do the comparo.
Macca.
30
I’m inclined to agree with you, Graeme Mcleodg.
Links:
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=489
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers//hathadh/2013Hathaway.pdf
https://list25.com/25-most-severe-droughts-ever-recorded/
Takeaways:
Future Sunspot Minimum will be 11 Yrs , +/- 1, since last Sunspot Minimum
Droughts occur shortly before or shortly after a sunspot minimum ( Min Yr -4 <= Drought yr <= Min Yr +4)
Next Drought ought to occur between 2018 and 2020.
I've no clue why things line up this way. Rather odd that they do.
00
In Victoriastan fuel reduction burns are mostly prohibited but all of a sudden Aboriginal “cultural burning” is OK? This article was from early 2019.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-31/indigenous-cultural-burning-to-return-to-victoria/10761772?pfmredir=sm
However it was mentioned again yesterday.
https://www.news.com.au/national/education-minister-dan-tehan-calls-for-cultural-burning-to-cut-bushfire-risk/news-story/fca5a029712b9f11b2fb2fa371305822
20
Ross Garnaut prediction was correct. Full stop. That the usual blog of deniers wrote mean things about him in the comments section means absolutely nothing. Ross looked at the data and simply applied it. Voila.
01
The Guardian: where comment is free, but on the ration.
00
So many failed predictions of global cooling by AGW “sceptics” over the last decade and more. It would seem they expect a special dispensation for all their failed predictions, not to be held to the same standard as those they argue against.
BIG NEWS VIII: New solar theory predicts imminent global cooling
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/big-news-viii-new-solar-model-predicts-imminent-global-cooling/
Global cooling coming? Archibald uses solar and surface data to predict 4.9°C fall (!)
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/global-cooling-coming-archibald-uses-solar-and-surface-data-to-predict-4-9c-fall/
00