Peacetime maximums on Boxing Day are just not what they used to be
The ABC is afraid that Boxing day cricket may “go extinct” due to the heat. Chris Gillham at WAClimate.net graphed the December 26 test temperatures in Melbourne all the way back to 1855. Obviously, using ABC-ScienceTM (absurdio-extrapolatory et al) what we are really looking at is ominous cooling. To help the ABC, let’s adjust headlines accordingly.
“Injuries are forecast to rise as maximum temperatures fall in Melbourne on Boxing Day.”
The trend is clear in a supercomputer somewhere. If this decline continues the second polynomial will hit zero in 440 years. Cricketers won’t know what heat is.
The graphs here confirm the newspaper stories of a history of phenomenal Boxing day heat — especially in the late 1800s and circa World War II. Ergo, wars cause global warming (in Melbourne, on Dec 26).
…This is bound to change…
Two things to keep in mind, apart from designing a team beanie, is that many of the temperatures in the 1800s weren’t from Stevenson screens and so are debatable. On the other hand, the urban heat island effect is strong and site maintenance is weak, so modern temperatures are debatable too. Sometime in World War I Australian sites hit a peak of being both reliable, modern, and not surrounded by hot concrete. The BOM obviously adjusts those days down.
As Chris says: The current Olympic Park weather station is less than a kilometre from the MCG, and it’s worth noting that Melbourne is an urban location not included in national temperature averages because the BoM acknowledges that city infrastructure has caused artificial UHI warming of one or two degrees.
Obviously the urban heat island effect (UHI) will be concealing the true cooling trend. If it weren’t for all those skyscrapers and super highways, the cricket pitch would be considerably cooler. Prof Panicbunny from Melbourne Uni fears that if the Australian economy continues to collapse under weight of high energy prices, the growth in UHI will stall, potentially putting cricket players at risk of needing scarfs in summer.
Clearly, since CO2 emissions appear to be ineffective at raising temperatures, only more concrete can save cricketers.
A ray of hope — while Boxing Day is cooling, Dec 27-30 is not:
Cricketers may only need ski jackets for the first day.
This is obviously due to climate change. Climate change causes climates to stay the same.
…
No doubt this data will need some adjustment post hoc, and post hoc hoc.
Sometime in 2200AD we look forward to finding out what the temperature was in 2019.
POST NOTE: Jokes aside. All conclusions and inferences here are subject to mockery, but the graphs above are real and based on BOM data. If only ABC journalism was too.
Thanks Jo. A nice swift rebuttal to the rubbish from the ABC you reported a couple of threads ago.
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As we continue our progress into a cooler clime, the low pressure troughs will dominate, acting as a funnel for warm NW winds all the way down to Hobart.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=1
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Great news. Get rid of the polynomial nonsense and insert a stat to show that there is no significant trend and I’ll give this 10 stars. 10 stars for just removing it.
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Should the line of best fit be a straight line? If so why? Why is a curve fit incorrect?
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you don’t just fit lines. you fit a line for a reason. Science.
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seriously… anyone can do science and stats courses and google to see what I mean. To Jo, I strongly suspect that you added the silly polynomial as a parody of other papers/blogs/ news media so please don’t feel the urge to jump in. To Peter, email me via my famous blog site if you want to discuss hypothesis testing and curve fitting. Can’t see me finding time now. I keep confidences.
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you jumped in! The key to humour is timing remember
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I agree.
Perhaps we are looking at a cyclic temperature history. Hence a curve would be appropriate.
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sorry but you need a reason to think it is cyclic. You don’t just look at the data and think it is cyclic. If you can state the reasons for cyclicality and what sort of cycle it is and then what you would predict it would look like then you are entering into the realm of science
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Gee Aye: you don’t just fit lines. you fit a line for a reason.
Science.You guessed it. Satire.
“absurdio-extrapolatory et al” not enough for you?
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no it is great. Who else got it?
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The nature of the data set determines the best best fit trendline Peter and the fluctuating values would indicate a polynomial. Intuitively I would have gone for an order 3 or 4 polynomial or at least included a moving average with the chart. I say that because both would show a small upturn in the trend post 2000 and complete honesty in visual representations is essential to preclude detractors devaluing your analysis.
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Better still leaf make the increments in 100ths of a degree .
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Read the headline again Gee aye. I think that statement is supported by the data.
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err… ok
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“POST NOTE: Jakes aside. All conclusions and inferences here are subject to mockery, but the graphs above are real and based on BOM data. If only ABC journalism was too.”
Jo, i think you mean “Jokes”, not “Jakes”
And the BOM has become a a bit of a joke….and subject to much mockery as they appear to have thrown all thier scientific integrity overboard to pursue the fools gold of CAGW…
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I was going to correct it to Jake’s as I thought it was Jake’s aside.
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Ta Original Steve. You are right. Too much news today. Three posts already…
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Just a few days ago we heard that the Boxing day tests were getting hotter and hotter.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/12/climate-change-to-make-boxing-day-cricket-extinct-abc-makes-history-extinct/
Some one had better inform the Monash University Climate Change Communication Unit.
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Fear Mongering The Test Match — Dec 29, 2019
Tony Hellar produced an excellent and entertaining analysis. The comments section that followed, highlighted the predictable, “ABC Australia turned off , disabled comments on their news site. News with blinders on.”
The ABC not only publish Leftist polemic and fantastical propaganda that hides behind “may,” they also delete their footprint, and they delete free speech. DefUNd the ABC.
Tony H highlights the daily maximum temperature trend at the following stations since c. late nineteenth Century – 1880 give or take.
Note the BOM hides all temperatures prior to 1910 (a peak):
Walgett – (since 1880) – decline (slight)
Wagga Wagga – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Robe – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Mildura – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Mackay – (since 1880) – increase (slight)
Inverell – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Hobart – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Gunnadah – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Forbes – (since 1880) – decline (slight)
Emerald – (since 1880) – decline (slight)
Deniliquin – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Cobar – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Charleville – (since 1880) – decline (slight)
Cape Otway lighthouse – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Cairns – (since 1880) -(increase slight – though recent notable decline)
Bourke – (since 1880) – decline (slight)
Boulia – (since 1880) – increase (slight)
Bathurst – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Alice Springs – (since 1880) – (Almost no trend)
Urban Stations:
Sydney – (since 1880) – increased (slight) obvious UHI implications given the location
Melbourne – (since 1880) – trendless
Darwin – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Adelaide – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
Hottest 26 – 30 December at all Australian GHCN Stations – (since 1880) – decline (notable)
ABC – Fake news propaganda at your expense and the expense of liberty, prosperity and happiness.
Way past the time to expunge the ABC from civilised discourse.
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Melbourne’s temp was measured at the corner of Franklin and Victoria Streets from 1855 until 2013. UHI would have been a minor factor in 1855, but more so as Victoria Rd became an 8 lane road, with traffic lights at the intersection.
BoM is also at it again with records NEVER seen before. Mildura was announced as having its driest EVER year in 2019. The driest year was 1944. It is on the BoM website. Victoria’s hottest December temp is still 49.4c at Mildura on 31 Dec 1904.
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2019 was the HOTTEST year on record, say the authorities! All aboard the Climate Express. Stopping all stations to Orwellville.
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