There is a strong phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscilation (MJO) happening over the Indian ocean North west of Australia.The MJO is a massive convective pattern that churns it’s way from west to east across the Indian and into the Pacific. For 30 – 60 days it’s a dynamo, changing global weather. It has a profound influence on both sides of the world — driving cold winter spells as far away as Canada and the US.
“It’s as extreme as I’ve ever seen it” — Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell, Jan 6th
“I’m looking at one of the worst 30 days periods in central Canada and western United states.”
“I’m watching what I was taught happen in front of me.”
” Jan 20 – Feb 10th may be very cold in the US.
Joe Bastardi is a long range weather forecaster at Weatherbell and he does a weekly video each Saturday. Last weekend he discussed the MJO and the hot tropical convective pattern occurring in the NE Indian ocean off Australia where, unusually, there are no clouds. The gap in the clouds allows sunlight in to heat the ocean in the tropics, but also allows the warmer ocean to radiate energy out to space. The outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is pouring out across the equator in the central and western Indian ocean.This makes cyclones and rain more likely off NW Western Australia.
Bastardi loves the climate and his enthusiasm is infectious. Bear in mind it’s six days old now, things will have shifted. It must be tough making a living out of trying to predict the weather weeks in advance…
There is more energy involved because the oceans are warmer, yet there is severe cold in parts.
The heat is pouring off the planet at 35W/m2 at 90E in the tropics. (That brown blob in the Indian Ocean). But it’s being followed by storms, clouds, cold and rain.
Three months of very few clouds over the NW Indian Ocean.
We all wonder, of course, what drives a 3 month period of very few clouds in the tropics … could it be a solar phenomenon — a shift in the solar wind for example.
Joe Bastardi on the effects over the USA
If the MJO gets into 8 (in the chart below) 1 or 2 don’t be surprised if it hits -10 in Chicago.
Most of the West and Central US will be cold, but the pool of cold dense air will lead to storms from the gulf across SE USA.
The man-man global warming theory predicts more water vapor, so there should be more clouds, not less in the tropics.
Madden-Julian Oscillation is a pattern that travels east bringing storms and rain and influencing weather right around the globe.
The cloudless warm water cell in the MJO pushes through this pattern from 1 to 8. Right now it’s at 4 (or it was a week ago). Let’s hope it brings some rain to Australia.
MJO pattern
MJO means Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) (Wikipedia)
It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep atmospheric convection.[1][2] Unlike a standing pattern like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden–Julian oscillation is a traveling pattern that propagates eastward, at approximately 4 to 8 m/s (14 to 29 km/h, 9 to 18 mph), through the atmosphere above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This overall circulation pattern manifests itself most clearly as anomalous rainfall. — Wikipedia
At some point Bastardi comments to the effect of saying something like…. I’m not seeing evidence that man-made CO2 is driving this, but I am seeing solar influence.
Any mistakes in the transcript or “translation” above are all mine. Apologies!
h/t Charles M
Cold in Washington State began on Thursday, Jan. 9th.
This will become severe by Monday night.
This means Zero F°, or -18°C.
This is for about 100 miles east of Seattle. Deeper inland it will be worse.
Dangerous.
Being prepared is not optional.
[We just gave a less-well-off neighbor enough firewood to last a month.]
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” . . It must be tough making a living out of trying to predict the weather weeks in advance…”
Not to mention trying to predict ‘man-made’ weather decades into the future.
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No problem, feed data into a computer.
sarc.
90
Computers no longer required. Just enough screaming kids yelling the end of the world is some 10 years away due to man-made global warming.
180
It’s impossible if you care about truthfulness. If the truth doesn’t count then it’s child’s play.
140
I’m not a customer of Joe Bastardi but from reputation he’s not finding it too hard to make accurate predilections. We’ll soon enough find out about the current one. I would expect him to be close if not right on.
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Documented patters, do not require rechargeable batteries to run them!
50
‘From late January to early February 2019, a quasi-stationary monsoon depression situated over northeast Australia caused devastating floods, killing an estimated 625,000 head of cattle in northwest Queensland, and inundating over 3 000 homes in the coastal city of Townsville.
‘The monsoon depression lasted ~10 days, driving daily rainfall accumulations exceeding 200 mm/day, maximum temperatures 8–10 °C below normal, and wind gusts above 70 km/h. In this study, the atmospheric conditions during the event and its predictability on the weekly to subseasonal range are investigated. Results show that during the event, the tropical convective signal of the Madden-Julian Oscillation was over the western Pacific, and likely contributed to the heavy rainfall …’
Science Direct
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There is also a teleconnection between the stratospheric QBO and MJO.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083152
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Joining the dots, our star is the great modulator.
‘Here evidence is presented that the amplitude of the Madden‐Julian oscillation during northern winter is also modulated by the 11 year solar cycle. The modulation is such that amplitudes and occurrence rates are largest under solar minimum conditions when the quasi‐biennial oscillation is in its easterly phase and smallest under solar maximum conditions when the quasi‐biennial oscillation is in its westerly phase.’
Lon L Hood
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This may support the statement purportedly by NASA in 2019 that the Grand Solar Minimum started last year (2018?).
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….. and here is an easy read on the QBO.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/atmosphere/quasi-biennial-oscillation
Richard Lindzen unravelled the mystery.
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Here is some supporting evidence for the claim that the Moon triggers El Nino events.
https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-lunar-alignment-density-index-and.html
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eXdtiCW2t-c/XfLHdDKON6I/AAAAAAAAB68/a80x4f3wI3caR3diR1Zwwt2NX5jO4g3zgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Comparison_LAI_SOI.jpg
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el gordo,
The Sun provides the energy that runs the system (by solar radiation heating the top 100m of the ocean in areas that are free of cloud) but the Moon and the Sun, in tandem, control how this energy is moved about the planet. The Moon by its triggering of El Nino events, and the Sun (+ Moon) by its influence on the upwelling of cool deep ocean water off the coast of Sth America that control the likelihood of La Nina events.
MJOs are a combination of a convectively coupled Equatorial Kelvin wave and an Equatorial Rossby wave. Please see:
https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-lunar-tidal-model-part-4.html
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FhLjEpU2nqM/XFwmCxj6l9I/AAAAAAAABfk/9dNMapLcbAQ0yKkHxIH3xoYLxHtLV4xZwCEwYBhgL/s400/MJO_mod.jpg
If you were to observe the Moon from a fixed point on the Equator at the same time each day, you would notice that the sub-lunar point on the Earth’s surface appears to move at a speed of 15 — 20 m/sec from west-to-east. This results from the fact that the west-to-east speed of the Moon along the Ecliptic (as seen from the Earth’s center) varies between 15.2 — 19.8 m/sec.
Interestingly, the west-to-east group (and phase) velocity for the convectively-decoupled Equatorial Kelvin wave (EKW) is 15 — 20 m/sec, as well. Strongly suggesting that the two phenomena are related to one another.
I believe that convectively decoupled Equatorial Kelvin waves are triggered by the interaction (along the Equator) between the diurnal atmospheric thermal tides (driven by the Sun) and the lunar atmospheric and ocean tides. Please see:
https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/09/a-lunar-tidal-mechanism-for-generating.html
I also claim that the equatorial Rossby waves, that are seen trailing the active phase of an MJO, are being generated at the times when there is an ebb in the lunar-induced atmospheric/oceanic tides at the Earth’s equator [when measured at the same time in the 24.8-hour lunar tidal day], i.e. either at a tidal minimum (at a lunar standstill) or at a tidal maximum at the Earth’s equator (at a lunar equatorial crossing). Please see:
https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-lunar-tidal-model-part-3.html
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It’s always amazed me the amount of different cycles and influences that affect our weather and climate , to a larger extent chaos rules but it seems to me there are some patterns that can be guessed by the likes of Joe and Indigo Jones because they are looking at a bigger picture instead of narrow focusing on just one thing such as CO2 .
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To be honest, I do not know how scientists can even see a signal in the weather from CO2 concentrations. Before the MJO we had cooler than normal Indian Ocean off our NW coast and then, in a matter of weeks it changed to warmer than normal. Did this preceed the MJO and is driven by the same solar conditions?
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Elevated levels of CO2 cannot create these weather conditions, on the other hand the QBO is in its easterly phase and severely modulated by a quiet sun.
To prove a solar link we need a hindcast.
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Directly perhaps. But would there be an argument to be made that additional energy retention due to CO2 is making these effects themselves, more energetic and thus ‘extreme’?
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“that additional energy retention due to CO2”
Only if you actually “believed” this piece of anti-science garbage.
Not happening, as shown by the fact that OLR does not diverge from atmospheric temperature over time.
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CO2 Must Comply with the universal gas law up to an altitude of 11,000 metres.
PV=nRT.
It does not and cannot “trap heat” in the liveable atmosphere and therefore does not create or enhance “global warming”.
True, there’s a layer above the biosphere where other factors can appear but the temperature at this altitude makes any discussion about CO2 Heating irrelevant.
There Is a real world out there beyond the scientific fantasy of CAGW.
KK
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The mean free path of the weak thin sliver of CO2 frequency radiation at atmospheric pressure is some 10m.
Its a non-entity !!
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oops… pressed enter too soon.
Not that CO2 gets a chance to re-emit.
Its re-emit time is some 2 magnitudes slower than its collisional time at atmospheric pressure.
As KK says, CO2 only gets a chance to re-emit above about 11km.
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William Happer claims the magnitude difference could be 1bn:1. I’ve also seen other claims for 100k:1.
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Yes, looking at that again, I should have said some several magnitudes slower.
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KK, I was always led to believe that CO2, being the heavier gas in the atmosphere, settled out on the land and ran down Ro the sea much as Water does.
This factor enables it to perform its major task of “feeding “ the plant life and continuing the Carbon Cycle, enabling the production of oxygen.
Ain’t it a wonderful system. All put in place without the aid of a “scientist” or a virtue-signalling “green”
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No, the CO2 effects are minuscule to irrelevant compared to the pervasive strong H2O ghg effect.
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Agreed, though the argument seems to be that CO2 feeds back to water vapour etc. I guess my question should be re-phrased that ‘accepting we have warmed slightly over last century, be-it as a result of CO2 or not, would the additional overall energy go some way to explain this MJO thing? If yes, then could it be argued that CO2 created/contributed to the weather patterns (if one accepts the premise that CO2 caused the slight warming with help from water vapour etc etc)
So with the ppm of CO2 going up, that must mean increased volume…or pressure, right? Can ‘n’ change? I assume R is a constant for the particular gas, so to balance the left side of the equation increasing, the temperature must go up? Or does the layer expand and therefore pressure drops accordingly?
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‘ … would the additional overall energy go some way to explain this MJO thing?’
Not really. Its the natural function of a strong El Nino or MJO to pump warm air into space. To suggest these oscillations are becoming more intense because of global warming, has no foundation in natural science.
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On the other hand, lets wait and see what comes out of this discussion.
https://judithcurry.com/2020/01/10/climate-sensitivity-in-light-of-the-latest-energy-imbalance-evidence/#more-25636
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They can’t.
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Perhaps the purpose of human life on earth is to make sense of the climate and the weather.
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With respect to long range weather forecasting, Australia has a long and fine history of just that.
I started doing what I do back in 2008, twelve years ago now, and in my very first Post on the Subject, I mentioned long range weather forecasting, and a little of the history surrounding it, going back to Lennox Walker, Inigo Jones and Clem Wragge, and now Lennox’s son Hayden Walker.
If the BOM can claim to accurately predict weather for tomorrow, and (so it seems) the UN, and every ‘model’ known to man can predict the weather in twenty, fifty, a hundred years from now, then it only stands to reason the long range weather forecasters can predict somewhere in between those two, and also with similar accuracy.
You can’t say that the BOM are ‘saints’ who always get it right, the models are saints who also get it right ….. and then in the same breath say that long range weather forecasters are just ‘mumbo jumbo’.
Long range weather forecasters just don’t fit the ‘narrative’ any more, because, in the main, they are nearly all of them skeptics, but hey seriously, aren’t all those models and the UN really just another form of long range weather forecasters too, so if you call one lot as mumbo jumbo, then they all must be that. You can’t just pick and choose one over the other.
Link to Hayden Walker site History page
Link to my first Post back in March of 2008 (and please excuse my amateurism at that time) –
Tony.
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As i said in my post above…perhaps the purpose of human life on earth is to make sense of the weather… 🙂
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Thanks for the Hayden Walker link
00
It’s the ~400 km/h summer Jetstream flow doing this. This 400 km/h jet is forecast for the 20th of Jan 2020, to illustrate the on-going process:
https://i.ibb.co/4tQ9bNL/a-400-kmh-jet-Screenshot-2020-01-11-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png
The speed of the Summer subtropical jets is recovering back to its prior peak-speed observation of 389km/h on the 5th of Jan 2020, and tending towards exceeding that even … within the peak of Summer!
As a result of the record jet speeds, drier air is actually being sourced from above the icesheet margin by the polar jet, from as low down as 10,000 ft. As the jet(s) get stronger they also simultaneously get deeper (higher and lower), and they begin to operate ‘in sync’ more often, with the polar-jet aligning under the southern side of the sub-tropical jet. These two combine to fed southern lower humidity air into both the sub-tropical jet, and then on into the sub-tropical Highs, just to the north of the jet, which then combine to pump it northwards up the eastern side of the Indian basin, into the tropics, in the direction of the equator.
I highlighted this less gush of north directed dryer air almost two weeks ago, prior to the 6th of Jan where Joe Bastardi is seeing the result of it intensifying.
Here’s the lower moisture air (~3 to 5% RH) at 34,000 ft in (and it’s also under) these stronger and deeper jets which also dip further southward, and northward (for a Summer, that is):
https://i.ibb.co/1ngvY5g/b-Screenshot-2020-01-11-Windy-as-forecasted-2.png
And here’s the same dry air at 18,000 ft, entering the High to the north of the 400 km/h jet, as sinking air in the High drives reinvigorated trade wind flows, that push the drier air northward towards 5 degrees of latitude area.
https://i.ibb.co/1mfXdwh/c-Humidity-18000-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-11-Windy-as-forecasted.png
As you can see the drier low-level air has been wrapping into (BOM’s fake Cat-1) Tropical Cyclone “Blake” which prevented it from developing further into a true cyclone, due to a lack of moisture to fire up convection, thus to lower the central-pressure, thus not deeper a pressure gradient, thus no true cyclonic wind speeds.
This drier tropical air off NW Australia will also choke-off the moisture flow to the cyclone that’s now forming to the west of Darwin, and cause it to atrophy and lose its deep-convection CDO as it gets closer to this northward moving dry-air fountain, pouring into the tropics south of Indonesia.
Note also that this same dry air then gets pulled over Southern Australia suppressing rainfall levels, i.e. this with OID enhanced the dryness in this drought.
That process has been going on at a lower level for a couple of years, hence the low moister drought, lower rainfalls in the southern winter, and promoted the OID dry phase. But the process has become very strong this southern Summer (even as OID turned wetter) as more stratospheric cold dry air has entered into the top of the polar lows, which has greatly expanded the Summer jetstreams. To the extent the jets now routinely exceed the Winter Jetstream speeds, flow-volumes, energy and depth. As well as a more southerly fetch to pull-up cooler drier air.
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continued …
Here’s the wind at the base of this same jet way, way down at 6,400 ft. In Summer the base of the sub-tropical jet normally goes no lower than ~18,000 ft due to Summer convection lifting it away from the surface. But the whole tropospheric temperature profile to the south of the jetstream is being depressed closer to the ground via sinking colder-drier stratospheric air intruding from above adn mixing into it, within both the polar and mid-latitude Hadley-Cells. So the jet becomes this low in Summer. The top of this same jet protrudes right into the dry lower stratosphere (~ -60 C).
https://i.ibb.co/njbMcVQ/d-Base-of-Jet-6400-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-11-Windy-as-forecasted.png
Here is the humidity at 6,400 ft as well. The High north of the jet has filled with colder drier air and it drives a drier trade flow towards the equator.
https://i.ibb.co/8Yhbvp2/e-Humidity-6400-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-11-Windy-as-forecasted.png
That’s why the sky in the area Joe Bastardi is highlighting has become clearer of clouds, more often. It is not actually “cloud free”, there’s just less H20 vapor in the air to act as a ghg ‘impedance’ to OLR.
The cause is colder sinking stratospheric dry-air intrusion that’s now being pushed further northwards in the Summer, by all SH pressure systems and ‘conveyors’ (including trade winds).
As I’ve pointed out several times since the beginning of December, the strongest jets are occurring over the south-central Indian Ocean and just to the south of Australia.
It is atmosphere cooling and drying doing this.
The last couple of years of drying has tipped things towards drought conditions in sub-tropical areas of Oz, reduced the winter rainfalls, and the added dryness of the air, and the enhanced dry winds in southerly changes has also enhanced the bushfire activity. Hence bigger fires, from more WNW dry wind, more hot-dry days, and windy and colder southerly changes, which has combined with more prior fuel growth (due CO2 greening plus the lack of hazard-reduction burns where and when they were needed).
This is why it’s been 10 C to 15 C in Victoria this morning and will be a much cooler than normal Summer day today.
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“OID” should be IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole.
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It’s the fallen RH humidity in the NE Indian Ocean tropics doing that.
Drier air is simply be pushed further north, more often, in repeated surges, which means less H2O ghg effect in the area than is normal, right through the tropopause.
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Here’s the southern-hemisphere forecast for Humidity at 24,000 ft, on Jan 20th 2020, The equator line is level with top of image (I’m using the same date and time as record jet and humidity images already given above):
https://i.ibb.co/kQpQLmm/Humidity-at-24000-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-11-Windy-as-forecasted.png
Now compare that low relative-humidity air mass location with the 90 Day OLR anomaly pattern, from the article:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/graph/atmosphere/convection/mjo-sea-surface-temps.gif
This pattern of reduced H2O level is seen from as low as 6,400 ft up to about 39,000 ft. As seen at 24,000 ft, the relative humidity is only ~3%. This reduction in H2O is why the long-wave radiation is flooding out, at 90E. There’s only about 25% of the usual H2O ghg ‘effect’ occurring, due to the NET effect of months of repeated surges of cooler dryer air flooding northward, pushed up by the expanded and faster sub-tropical jet stream flow.
I’ve only shown this one screen at 24k ft, but much the same RH pattern persists +/- 15,000 ft either side, before fading out, i.e the atmospheric depth south and SW of Indonesia has relatively dried-out because it keeps getting refreshed pulses of high-latitude mid-level sinking dry air pushed that way by the jet, and the north side High pressure systems, that were strengthened by the steeper pressure gradients, thus creating stronger winds, including a reinvigorated trade flow, which pushed this drier block of air further north than it would normally travel in Summer.
Hence the 90 day OLR anomoly.
It’s ultimately being pushed much further northwards more often during this Summer because the mid-lat pressure systems, and thus the jets, were all strengthened by the colder-drier sinking stratospheric air near the south side of the jet, which I established last week was indeed occurring, as described here:
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/weekend-unthreaded-292/#comment-2250447
This stratospheric originated dry air has now reached close to the equator and will begin to have more consequential global weather event effects from there, as well as the chronic dry air effects.
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anomaly.
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Annotated temperature map of the High and Jetstream @ 45,000 ft:
i.e. lower-stratosphere at this latitude, and same date and time as that above jet and humidity maps.
https://i.ibb.co/SXgYddC/Temperature-of-High-45000-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-11-Windy-as-forecasted.png
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Cooler air being dragged down into blocking highs might explain this anomaly.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/
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My logic is that when stratosphere with a tendency to sink, does so, it presses down on the troposphere and drags the entire thermal profile of the troposphere closer to the ground and chills then surface and lower-trop more then normal. Air sinks into the troposphere above the Polar-cell, but the dry stratospheric High above (which is the sinking air column) also disperses it generally NE then NNE into the top of the mid-lat’s cell, between ~35,000 ft and ~30,000 ft. This is the ‘mid-level’ by the time it gets to ~35 degrees south latitude. But at the latitude where it enters the mid-lat cell 34,000 ft is still the upper-levels. In other words, it stays at the same altitude but relative the the rising tropopause it ‘falls’ NE to the mid-level as it moves towards 35 degrees south.
The southern most ‘top’ of mid-latitude cell is at ~32,000 ft where it meets the polar cell. So the cold air pooling between 34,000 and 30,000 ft doesn’t even need to sink, it just gets entrained in the easterly flow and infiltrates into the tops of the lows there. The temp-difference top to bottom of the core is what deepens the Low, so all of the lows immediately became stronger in Spring (i.e. didn’t lose their mid-level winter strength) and they stayed that way into mid Summer. Because the sinking air moving into them remained at the same lower-stratospheric temperature. So the increase in Summer warmth below didn’t warm them. What it did do though was to warm the bottom of all the high-latitude Lows, even as the top remained chilled down to about -55 C.
Thus the T-difference top top bottom of the Lows all increased in thermal gradient, thus the Lows all got stronger in the mid-levels, right when they should have begun to weaken. Thus the jets all got proportionately faster, as the upper and mid-level Low pressure got Lower.
It’s turned out that most of this colder infusion of formerly stratospheric air has been entering the mid-latitude tropospheric cell over the Indian ocean and to the south of Australia. Not sure why, but that’s where it’s been preferring to move – thus far. There’s also this tendency over the South Atlantic, but to a lesser extent. The Eastern Pacific has had the slowest jets, even so they’re much faster than normal.
The air that does not pool in the tops of the Lows generally spreads-out in a NE to NNE direction toward the sub-topical jetstream, pushed by the growing pool of denser colder in-falling (High) air behind it, over the polar cell. i.e. there’s so much cold -55 C air pooled on top of the polar Hadley Cell that it is pushing that pool radially equatorward, as more stratos-air sinks on to that cold pool. Most of it can’t (yet) fall below the convection support level at 28,000 ft, into the Summer polar-cell itself. It only does so where there’s a cohesive High structure which crosses the tropopause. But even such Highs are not large enough to drain the cold-pool sitting at 34 k to 30 k ft, above the polar cell. So radially equatorward it is spilling. it can’t go up and over the rising tropopause as it moves equatorward, so it stays at about the same level.
It’s not changing absolute altitude much but it is changing its ‘relative’ altitude with respect to the higher tropopause as it moves north. So it ends up in the ‘mid-levels’ by default, as it simply moves NE without sinking further (much). But all that colder air that’s thus infilling the top and middle of the mid-latitude cell is also making it colder and denser. It will impart a growing tendency for the air to sink lower, as the Summer convective warmth comes to a progressive end around May.
So anywhere this colder air is will tends to sink more during mid-Summer, by which I mean, more than it otherwise would sink. So if the mid-latitude mid-level has built up such a deep pool of colder and drier air, to the extent that the top of the strongest 400 km/h jetstream flow drops to as low as 6,400 ft, then that thermal profile in that jet has fallen a long way.
So the potential now exists for strongly anomalous cold in Summer, near to the latitude of the jet. And the cloud shown in the link you posted is sitting in the jetstream flow that day.
If you go back to remarks made about this since Christmas you’ll notice that I mentioned a new characteristic of the deepest and fastest jets, that the fastest core of them was oscillating vertically as it traveled, by +/- 5,000 ft, centered on 34,000 ft.
But the strongest of those jets were extending from 45,000 ft. i.e. into true mid-Lat stratospheric air. And that the strongest of the jets were surrounded by the coldest sinking air flow and the coldest adjacent tops to the mid-latitude ‘polar’ Lows.
So if the entire air mass from 45,000 ft is moving sinusoidally as it flows, by +/- 5000 ft, then sometimes this colder air is going to come close to the ground, and at others the top will punch waves into the lower Stratosphere, thus the near to 100% RH air sinking -70 C air above the jet flow where it’s done that.
Some of that disturbed chilling denser higher-pressure formerly tropo-air (still not expanded to ambient as it chills) doesn’t fall back on the jet flow, it instead can ballistically overshoot, as it re-enters the upper troposphere, and end ups sinking into the top of an existing High – or else it tends to produce one in the upper-level on the north side of the southern sub-tropical jet, which again strengthens the High, so strengthens the pressure gradient to the Lows, so tends to re-strengthen the jet, and to modify it
[ECMWF’s physics cope extremely well with these interactions, as it turns out the model was always intended to incorporate such predictable wave dynamic interactions through and above the tropopause, specifically to predict follow-on tropopause effects, day and weeks later. Unfortunately those stratospheric details are unavailable to examine in the free public version of Windy. Would probably have to buy software and a user licence off ECMWF to examine it.]
If the colder high RH air falls on the south side of the southern-hem jet it just sinks into the mid-levels, relatively warming as it drops down to about 30 k ft over a few days.
So it is likely the record lower temp experienced under the jet in SA was due to such an elongated vertical oscillation, which is also consistent with the graphic of the temps on that day. If it were due to a High moving into the Bight, a sinking cold-pool would have been more spread-out. But the High there now was still further West of the jet flow.
As pointed out before Christmas, the (then) implied colder air, and resulting jet behavior, meant cold records were more likely to be broken within all seasons, not just Winter, because sinking cold stratospheric air is not affected by what season is below it. It will just intrude the troposphere, 24/7/365, and the weather will adjust to greater thermal and pressure gradient difference, vertically, and pole to equator.
Naturally that would also result in more vigorous frontal air-mass contrasts still to come. They probably haven’t shown up yet because the air is still very dry either side of the frontal changes. But if we get a strong La-Nina in the next few years …
Logically colder mid-level air and jet flow between 35 deg to 15 deg south during Winter, would sink closer to the ground as Summer’s convection drops off. As the High belt strengthens in those same latitudes logically they should contain colder air, more often.
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Somehow the draft got messed up here, suspect the use of less than and greater than signs tripped up the blog software, so I’ll reword it without them:
Is should say this …
Thus the colder lower base of these deeper jets can interact with the ground more readily (over-shooting of colder descending air pushes cooler air, at say 2,000 ft, down to the surface, in waves) if the jet is also osculating vertically by +/- 5,000 ft. It’s not just the highest core speed band that moves up an down, the periphery moves up and down with it.
00
This also got messed up by the less than and greater than signs (the blog thinks it was incorrect html code so just deleted it – nice!):
This is what it should have said:
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The positive IOD has broken down !
And the big wet has arrived in the Top End.
Over 500 mm of rain in places in the last 24 hours
Good !
And ‘climate change’ had nothing to do with it.
It’s just normal climate in the Top End !
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-deluge-over-the-top-end/530871?fbclid=IwAR2nCMhhwY_N4OA3bmqaMhpUJGtfUMEJMnZrTWSOzOSxSCvX64IJHwbJiJA
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I am just a simpleton when it comes to climate change ,(did ok in maths 1,2,physics and chem at year 12 haha)
But I am yet to see an equation that exemplifies CO2 as being the master contributor towards the worlds current and future climate conditions .
I feel real climate science is beyond any mortal and when u rely on computer models , it is only what the programmer makes happen will happen .
To ignore or not be able to immerse sea temps, currents,the sun,winds and especially clouds into their formulae defies scientific analysis .
Also to ignore history or change it at will suggests total ignorance rather than substantive intellect or honesty .
How hard can it be to disprove scientifically or mathematically when the weather is doing as it is atm.
While the world weather is dramatised thru the media now for every event being record or catastrophic and youngsters being used to terrify even more people ,there is little hope for sensibility arising .
Politicians determine outcomes , but their priority is to govern and be voted in , not to actually do what is right .
The western world is in an quandary ,led by UN,EU,IPCC and hangers on and beneficiaries .
The world needs more TRUMPS .
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You may have stopped studying science and maths after year 12, but your logic and reasoning skills are very strong.
🙂 KK
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