When will our BoM and Climate Experts correct the Fake Science and misinformation?
Climate change leads to a hotter-wetter world. This is a central canon of the theory of man-made global warming. Despite that, none of our paid experts are correcting the myths and misinformation of our public debate. Every man and his monkey (including M.P’s) are saying that Climate Change causes a hotter drier world which leads to fires, and the BOM, CSIRO and millions of scientists apparently agree. So if Australians are misinformed, who’s fault is it? — Not looking at you Andy Pitman, David Karoly, Tim Flannery, ABC Science Unit, Gergis, Sherwood, Trewin, Steffan and all the rest.
Blame the ocean currents for our bush fires
The biggest cause of bush-fires in Australia is the drought. A lack of rain allows the nation to get scorching hot days and dries out the fuel. Yet our long term records show that obscene megatons of CO2 from China has no detectable effect on our long term rainfall. Not in the fire zones, and not across the whole country either. The main driver of droughts and fires therefore is the El Nino oscillation, the IOD, and the SOI. Tax the ocean! Stop the currents! Hold back the tide and pray to Karl Marx!
Climate change made zero difference to rain trends in Australian fire zone
A half hour search finds six long records of rainfall in the latest bushfire zone but no sign of a CO2 signal. But, hey, it’s not like we pay the BOM a million dollars a day to correct misinformation, or the ABC three million dollars a day to ask them hard questions.
Long term rainfall in all these places is just like it used to be.
Spot the meaningful trend
CO2 has no effect on Cobargo rainfall
This is what a graph looks like when CO2 has no detectable impact on rainfall. 50% of all human emissions since the days of Neanderthals has been produced since 1992. But the rainfall is just like it was in the 1920s. 89 houses were lost in Cobargo, but they were lost because of land management and a natural drought.
While the rainfall in Dalgety appeared to increase slightly, the rainfall in Ensay appears to fall slightly. Since modelers have no skill in predicting regional rainfall trends anyone claiming either shift is caused by coal plants might as well be a fortune teller.
Climate scientists can’t explain why the rainfall was lower from 1920 – 1940 here so they have no idea if it’s just a natural cycle driving twenty year trends. There are natural cycles linked to solar cycles that are a complete mystery to climate modelers.
How about 160 years of nothing?
Melbourne Regional Office 1855 – 2015
Sydney Observatory 1858 – 2019
The longest records we have show cycles come and go. Since we can’t predict the cycles more than five months in advance (and often not even then), clearly we don’t know what drives these cycles. When will Australia’s climate scientists correct the politicians and celebrities who benefit from making false claims?
It’s not drier than the 1880s. Not drier than WWI. If there is any pattern it’s that there might be a long term natural cycle where there was less rain in the early 1900s, more rain after WWII and less rain again after the 1980s.
Looking at the 1900 – 2020 Australian rainfall trend map (which ignores the decades of data before that) much of Victoria has a 10mm lower rainfall per decade. But NSW, where most of the fires have burned so far ,, has exactly the opposite trend. Which one is climate change?
In Australia you can claim any trend you want in rainfall, just by cherry picking the start date.
Droughts are the same as they ever were
In the 178 year record, across the whole nation — there is no trend. All that CO2 has made no difference at all to the incidence of Australian droughts. Climate scientists have shown droughts have not increased in Australia. The graph here shows Sydney rain, but click the link to see Melbourne and Adelaide. Same thing. All the data we have, looked at in all the ways we can think of shows CO2 is not controlling our rain.
A warming world means more rain. Other evidence also shows mega droughts were worse. 178 years of CO2 emissions have no measurable effect on rainfall in Australia.
Rainfall trends, cycles, Australia, Sydney, Graph, 2019, 1840 – 2020. All the data we have, looked at in all the ways we can think of shows CO2 is not controlling our rain.
REFERENCE
Linden AshcroftabDavid J.KarolyacAndrew J.Dowdyb(2019) Historical extreme rainfall events in southeastern Australia, Weather and Climate Extremes , 100210
And even more droughts and trends graphs here.
But but but…St Greta says the sky is falling….
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on her.
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Great post Jo !
this deserves 100 out of 10 !
And that is not a joke !
I mean it !
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I second that, great material for the Royal Commission.
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100 out of 10 that’s climate science math .
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Yeah, but how many of the Klimate Manglers will ever realise that?
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Jo…more hysterical agit prop….
It appears a desperate attempt to steer things away from *fuel load* and ignoring figures before 1910. Now why would that be?
More Rutherglenning?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-14/bureau-of-meteorology-chart-shows-how-temperatures-soared/11857404
“Australia just had its warmest and driest year on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, continuing a long-running trend in the country.
“A chart produced by the bureau and updated with 2019 figures (shown above) displays a stark transformation over the past century.
“It shows the anomaly of mean temperature for each calendar year from 1910 to 2019, compared to the average over the standard reference period of 1961–1990.
“The colours range from dark blue (more than 3 degrees Celsius below average), through blues and greens (below average), yellow and orange (above average), and then brown (more than 3C above average).
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Actually , looking at the much publicised BOM temp graph that goes back to 1850 of average temperature, if temp data before 1910 is deemed “unreliable” , why do they use data back to 1850?
So thier average temp graph is “rutherglenned” data, we know that, however picking a trend us not really possible if pre 1910 data is excluded…..
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More sea level bed wetting….er….
https://sealevel.climatecentral.org/research/reports/flooded-future-global-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise-worse-than-previously/
“EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
“As a result of heat-trapping pollution from human activities, rising sea levels could within three decades push chronic floods higher than land currently home to 300 million people
“By 2100, areas now home to 200 million people could fall permanently below the high tide line
“The new figures are the result of an improved global elevation dataset produced by Climate Central using machine learning, and revealing that coastal elevations are significantly lower than previously understood across wide areas
“The threat is concentrated in coastal Asia and could have profound economic and political consequences within the lifetimes of people alive today
“Findings are documented in a new peer-reviewed paper in the journal Nature Communications
…………..
“A new digital elevation model produced by Climate Central helps fill the gap. That model, CoastalDEM, shows that many of the world’s coastlines are far lower than has been generally known and that sea level rise could affect hundreds of millions of more people in the coming decades than previously understood.
“Based on sea level projections for 2050, land currently home to 300 million people will fall below the elevation of an average annual coastal flood. By 2100, land now home to 200 million people could sit permanently below the high tide line.
[Original link defunct and edited: climatecentral.org/news/report-flooded-future-global-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise-worse-than-previously-understood – Jo Nov 2024]
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Put the sunspot activity graph against the rainfall graph.
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The PDO index correlation with rainfall graphs above is a decent fit.
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These are facts
Therefore by definition, the alarmists being “fact” wits either ignore it or have no idea of how to objectively and rationally interpret it.
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That includes almost all our politicians, especially our so called leader PM Morrison who now is considering doing more about climate change.
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Read between the lines, he is going to let the Royal Commission do his talking for him.
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No he is not Elgordo , the royal commission will only look into what the fortune tellers say about the future .
Not If it’s caused by man or not , that has already been decided .
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I beg to differ. The RC will note the build up of dead wood because of green tape and behaviour of arsonists to explain the fires. Then we have the droughty conditions, surely its unprecedented.
Ask an expert on south east Australian climate, amazingly dry conditions can also be cold.
‘Prolonged dry conditions were identified in various parts of the region during 1837–1843 and 1845–1852, while wet conditions were noted from 1836 to 1838, primarily in southern SEA. Anomalously cold periods were also identified in 1835–1836 and 1848–1849, in general agreement with temperature reconstructions from other regions of the Southern Hemisphere.’
Linden Ashcroft 2014
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Scomo when first mentioning the royal commission said it would include climate change , he has now corrected that to be effects of man made climate change so I’m. not so sure it won’t be a whitewash .
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Yes indeed, let us hear the argument for man made global warming within the confines of a Royal Commission.
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If a royal commission ever actually finds out anything new/interesting, and that is acted on – It’ll be the first time in history.
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As demonstrated by previous Royal Commissions in Aus. referencing a multitude of topics the commission will be told what rocks NOT to overturn in the terms of reference. In other words only ask questions that give answers in the vein of the required policies……
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FIRE ROYAL COMMISSION – CC
AFR today (behind paywall):Why the bushfire inquiry must include climate change
It’s essential that climate change be part of an inquiry into the bushfires raging across the country, says former Supreme Court judge Bernard Teague.
The former supreme court judge who ran the Black Saturday royal commission says it is essential that climate change impact be part of an inquiry into the 2019-20 bushfires and has warned against any move to restrict its terms of reference.
Mr Teague was a judge on the Supreme Court of Victoria from 1987 to 2008 before being tapped to run the inquiry into the Black Saturday fires of February 7, 2009, in Victoria that claimed 173 lives.
He said climate change had been “small beer” for his inquiry because of apparent consensus about its continuing impact.
“We had two hours on climate change – this is 10 years ago – because we could get a stack of scientists who would take one side and not one scientist was prepared to come before our commission and be cross-examined about climate change.”
He said that in 2010 “everyone was saying there’s only the prospect of worse fires in the future because of climate change”.
“It needs to be looked at it greater depth in light of the experience of the past 10 years, which has only shown what everyone now accepts – well almost everyone – that it has an enormous impact that we need to better understand.
“It impacts on a lot of things, like controlled burning for example.”
NB: “Not one scientist was prepared to come before our commission and be cross-examined about climate change.”
Well, why was NO climate scientist prepared to be cross-examined about CC?
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More research = new scientific results
That show different things
Are in play !
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I think Morrison is giving them what they want to hear, I doubt he will actually follow through.
If you listen carefully to what he says, its clear he’s throwing the Leftist jackals some “food” to keep them at bay long enough to let the public forget, then will maintain the same hard line against the Big Lie. Its a tactical move to let the emotion dissipate from the moment then get back on track to ignore the demands of the UN climate cultists…..
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There is a great cartoon by Spooner in The Australian today. It shows ScoMo tied to a stake with firewood around and several Greenies brandishing burning torches.
Scomo “all I said was Indian Ocean Dipole”
Head scruffy: “There. He said it again”.
All Morrison can do is wait until the tumult generated by the Greens die down. The media, except the ABC, will lose interest and once rains come there might be a chance to push the blame back where it belongs; the State Governments and local Councils.
Coincidentally I got an e-mail this morning from a friend in the Adelaide Hills with pictures of the bush at the front of his property. The last back burning was 33 years ago, but the Adelaide Hills Council has taken action – they’ve put up a sign saying Native Revegetation Area,…please do not disturb.
I wish I could include the photo of the sign and the surrounding dry grass.
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When they stop being fake experts.
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They are professional
Propagandists !
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yep, FAKE X-Spurts.
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The names mentioned are nobody’s seeking relevance and a cushy public service job with the attendant perks. You even get the ABC to interview you regularly. I think Pitman some months ago subtly tried to introduce some saneness into this. He needs to be quoted at a RC.
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Further, as one tries to bring statistical proof as regards the climate record it seems that even that is rejected and the precautionary principle is inserted.
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Had anyone ever calculated how much brush grows in a normal, a wet and a dry year and how much on average needs to be removed to keep the population safe?
Could that amount be translated to an amount we could visualise easily? As readers will know the UK imports hardwood thinnings from America for its drax power station and it would be interesting to know how long the oz brush would keep drax running
Tonyb
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Tony, I think dry brush is too low density to be worth shipping to Drax. indeed, judging by the US figures even hardwood jarrah chips will increase emissions if they were sent.
But it would be an interesting calculation. It would demonstrate just how much energy was sitting around on the ground ready to burn. I’d like to know that. Will ask David, o creator of FullCam carbon accounting…
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Jo
as a matter of interest here are the drax figures
Drax Power Station
It has a capacity of 3,906 megawatts (MW) and produces around 18 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power a year, 75% using compressed wood pellets, a form of sustainably sourced biomass. The remainder is produced using coal, a fossil fuel being phased out by 2025, if not before.
so my interest is more to know how many power stations equivalent are going up in smoke through brush fires and how much needs to be burned each year to keep the population safe. I suspect the amount of fuel lying around would be huge.
Incidentally, whilst a different hemisphere and different conditions, my vast records on CET show the wettest and stormiest weather occurs during colder than average years with the worst examples during the little ice age when co2 was lowest
Tonyb
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Our ancestors in Australia recognised the bush to be a danger, and set about converting it to
pasture. Even as late as the 1950s, that was unquestioned.
Since that time, the Bolshevik Intelligentsia has grown so strong, that they dominate the
Narrative, and sad fools like Craig Kelly are reduced to begging permission to build
a Coal Fired Power Station.
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Ha ha ha ha ha, HaTband.
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‘ … fools like Craig Kelly …’
Hmmm …. he seems to be the only MP left with any integrity. Do you still believe CO2 causes global warming?
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” a form of sustainably sourced biomass.”
Interesting comment from the Drax PR team. Is there evidence that USA forests/trees that are being harvested are being replanted?
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The Victorian Royal Commission into the 2009 bushfires recommended annual planned burn of 390,000Ha of bushland. Just burning bushland under controlled conditions is labour intensive. Collecting the wood for fuel would be even more labour intensive. I doubt there would ever be an economic case for it.
There are possibly ways to permit individuals or companies to establish wood scavenging from parks for home heating. Right now, this activity is not encouraged.
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Never happen, the chances of someone working out how to profit from it are too high.
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Tony, I think Victoria recommended 5% of the total acreage, and I believe WA recommended 10%.
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“ hardwood thinnings from America ”
Can you or anyone else provide info about:
a. hardwood; and
b. thinnings ?
I have seen the news and other reports about DRAX but I have not found a full accounting of what is harvested, costs, and reductions of CO2.
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John
Here is a comprehensive if rather biased analysis of drax wood pellets
https://forestscope.info/
interesting that they cite wood removal of thinnings as a positive aid to reducing forest fires
Tonyb
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Thanks, I’ll have a look.
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That DRAX Forest Scope site mentions an increase US South forest.
We visited folks northwest of Savanna, GA in the late 1960s.
A retired army fellow raised children, hogs, corn, and a little tobacco. Now their lands are in managed trees – rows of trees. Nearby there seems to be land similarly managed. Some appears to be cleared, awaiting regrowth.
Part of this process may be the children making a new life out of the parent’s land that was not very profitable. There were either 5 or 6 kids in the family, and as it was the land could not support more than 2 families.
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John
Interesting anecdote.The drax pellets business business receives a lot of govt subsidy as its supposedlylower carbon although even Greenpeace have queried this.
Nice to think some of the money might be going somewhere to Improve the lot of the farmer and his family.
Tonyb
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There are some figures here for WA.
https://www.dpaw.wa.gov.au/management/fire/fire-and-the-environment/51-fuel-loads-and-fire-intensity
Fuels in jarrah forests:
accumulate at 1-2 tonnes/ha each year
reach a maximum of about 20 tonnes/ha in 20 years.
Fuels in karri forests:
accumulate at 3-4 tonnes/ha each year
reach a maximum of about 60 tonnes/ha in 20 years.
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120 years of Australian rainfall.
Last 30 years of weather=Climate.
Quite a few Highest Rainfall events on record are there.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/rainfall/
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Time for our PM to grow some balls and tell the electorate the “real facts” about bush fires in Australia as spelled out excellently in this article.
I have been telling friends/acquaintances for a long time now about the “AGW Myth” but the electorate needs to find out from those in positions of power – don’t worry about the polls Scomo – the next election is 2.5 years away and by that time the next La Nina & east coast floods will be back in full force – remember what I said late last week – the last two strong La Ninas (mid 1998 to early 2001 & late 2010 to early 2012) occurred ~ 2 years after the Solar Minimums in 1996 & 2008. So do the maths – the Solar Minimum in 2019 should translate to a strong La Nina / La Ninas starting in 2021/22. This makes even more sense when the likes of the two Davids (Evans & Dilley) predict a “GC Cycle” starting in the early 2020’s. This “GC Cycle” is really required for the public to seriously question the IPCC’s “AGW Ideology”. I suspect very few Aussies have read the excellent two publications of “Climate Change – The Facts (2014 & 2017 with 2020 due to be released this year)”.
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I wish he would say poppycock – or something like that. Unfortunately people get alarmed easily and there are very few of us that keep their rational minds. Morrison shall play along- even if he believes in it, but as he says he won’t wreck the economy in doing so. As you say we wait for a turnaround in the local climate to a cooler wet phase. Yes, and copies of “climate change:the facts in every waiting room,office and school in the nation.
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Further on than further it is the MEDIA that is the real problem here. The role that the 4th Estate has in propagating this misinformation and alarm is in my view subversive. Then that leads on to the real subversion:the schools of journalism and their Marxist Trotskyite lecturers.
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TWEET: Stefan Rahmstorf
2019 was Australia’s hottest and driest year on record. Is there anyone still in denial about this being a key factor making the bushfires go out of control? #AustraliaFires
8 Jan 2020
reply: The long term trend for precipitation in Australia, is positive.
Rahsmtorf: That’s a very weak trend though, probably not statistically significant and not enough to compensate the drying effect of rising temperatures. And over the past 50 years there is a strong downward trend in precipitation especially in the whole eastern half and western Australia…
reply: Ryan Maue
Stefan, there is research on pan evaporation trends recently published.
Obviously, E-P budget is more complicated that just temperature and precipitation but in this case, linear thinking might be misleading…
https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1214957259161325569
Rahmstorf re-tweets Greta re WEF appearance, slams Scott Morrison and Murdoch media, etc etc:
Twitter: Stefan Rahmstorf
https://twitter.com/rahmstorf
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Pat
Greta has said that she consults Stefan when considering writing articles and tweets for release to a fawning world
Tonyb
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tonyb –
indeed. Greta and family are CAGW insiders.
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Corrected it for you.
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We see Scott Morrison copping heavy flak over the federal government’s delayed response to the fire emergency. What we do not see is how dismal the Andrews government has performed on its commitments following the 2009 deadly bushfires.
Victoria’s recommended annual planned burn target agreed to from the Royal Commission into the 2009 bushfires is 390,000Ha.
Actual annual planned burn area achieved:
2018-19- 130,000 Deficit- 260.000
2017-18- 74,728 Deficit- 315,272
2016-17- 125,052 Deficit- 264,948
2015-16- 197,940 Deficit- 192.060
2014-15- 234,614 Deficit- 36,674
Cumulative deficit over the last 5 years totals 1,068,954Ha. Planned burns only achieved 45% of the target over the last 5 years. An honourable premier would stand down over such a dismal performance on such a critical target.
This data is easily found on line in government reports so would not take much journalistic talent to pose the most significant question to Daniel Andrews regarding the 2020 bushfire emergency. Scott Morrison needs to be reaming premiers for not managing their State obligations.
There is absolutely no need for yet another Royal Commission into bushfires. Simply ask a few pertinent questions and call for Daniel Andrews to resign – he is leading an incompetent government, falling dismally short of agreed targets.
It would be nice to see a real journalist ask the right question.
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The Royal Commission Report:
http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/finaldocuments/summary/PF/VBRC_Summary_PF.pdf
Recommendation 56:
This is the latest DELWP Annual Report:
https://www2.delwp.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0032/438188/DELWP-Annual-Report-2018-19-web.pdf
The data on planned burns over the past 5 years can be found on p62.
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Good one Rick!
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the remedy is a massive class action lawsuit.
it’s not like the government wasn’t on notice from the last royal commission.
rope the feds in too with their ‘kyoto protocol’ land clearing laws.
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Since crown land has been privatised somewhat, does anyone have any map/graph/other information about planned burns in plantation forests? or even any information about the extent to which plantation forests have been affected by fire this year? There seems to be a deficit of information with respect to plantation forests affected by the fires/other.
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RACHEL BAXENDALE – VICTORIAN POLITICAL REPORTER
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/bushfires-hazard-reduction-plan-ignores-black-saturday-inquiry-targets/news-story/410a06f04403175565a7beab20ba550b
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That link is paywalled – useless reference for me!
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Here is the start:
Hazard reduction burns conducted in Victoria over the past three years combined did not reach the level recommended for a single year by the Black Saturday royal commission.
An analysis of annual reports from the state Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning found planned burns had returned to pre-Black Saturday levels of just 130,000ha a year — only one-third of the 5 per cent or 385,000ha recommended by the royal commission in 2010.
The information comes amid a horror fire season in which 25 people have been killed and thousands of homes have been destroyed in southeastern Australia, with at least two to three months of hot, dry conditions still to go.
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Thanks Graeme !
Is there any data for here in SA ?
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Sorry Rick, I found your post very interesting and googled about it.
Came up with that Australian article and was able to read it first time, but then when I went back it was paywalled.
I didn’t intend to capitalise the reporter’s to imply shouting, that was just how it was typed in the article.
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Apologies for stuffing up the blockquote.
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I expected more “balls” from Morrison, but I think the Hawaii bit rattled him and now he’s a blubbering wreck , kowtowing to the media and every Green Hippy there is.He is being handled by his confidants and advisers wrongly. It doesn’t help that the nation is in a timorous mood either.
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While there is the possibility of additional funding these government departments will just keep going along with it. It’s all about money. Not truth and facts.
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Evening Jo,
You’ve obviously not asked Prof Shine, President of the Australian Academy of Science who apparently has abundant evidence, but somehow doesn’t get to mention any …
I found this last Saturday (Jan 11):
…
“Australia’s top scientists urge government to do more on global warming
The prestigious Australian Academy of Science said a better response was needed to the unprecedented bushfire crisis.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-s-top-scientists-urge-government-to-do-more-on-global-warming-20200110-p53qlc.html?btis
”
It’s by Fergus Hunter. An extract:
” Professor Shine said there was “abundant evidence available” to understand what was happening with the environment and Australia needed to look to that science for disaster responses and future policies. ”
…
Professor Shine is president of the Australian Academy of Science, and is a biochemist and molecular biologist.
…
My comment:
Show us. Some. And make it scientifically reliable. Please.
And I ask:
On what basis does he claim im the right to speak for his membership on this issue?
Did he survey his membership? If so how many members were informed? How many replied? What questions were asked? What were the responses?
And again, on what evidence does he base his position? …
Cheers
Dave B
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So is he an expert in the field of atmospheric physics?
Are the scientists giving the opinion qualified in the field of atmospheric physics?
If not, they have no business on offering an opinion as to whether anthropocentric co2 is causing catastrophic warming.
And even if they are qualified in the field, the hypothesis that co2 leads to catastrophic global warming is an unproven conjecture, so their argument from opinion is basically worthless.
But of course the SMH didn’t bother to screen their experts (who are they, what are their qualifications, what is their field of expertise etc).
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Seems a useful place for this word
“ultracrepidarian”
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/ultracrepidarian
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nice!
I like the etymology too: “in allusion to the words of Pliny the Elder ne supra crepidam sutor judicare ‘let the cobbler not judge above the sandal’; “
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Credit where credit is due – it came up in comments on an earlier thread here
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A friend reckons it
“Applies to all climate scientists and politicians ”
but needs
“a word for “ might is not right” ”
for a perfect double to
“sum up the present hysteria”
Any suggestions for the missing word?
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Let the athlete not jump over his knees?
11
…or her/etc knees, repectively
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Or agnotologist. It was a term used when i was engaged in undrgraduate studies almost 50 years ago. Haven’t heard the term used often since.
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oh, climate change is responsible for the fires, climate change policy.
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Man goes into thick forest in drought with 40 degree temperature ,10 % humidity and a 50 kmph NW wind and then throws a match. CLIMATE CHANGE!!!!
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“When will Australia’s climate scientists correct the politicians and celebrities who benefit from making false claims?”
Here is the CSIRO, Nov 29, 2019: “We have always lived with large climate variability in Australia.
We have experienced years like 2010-2011 when there was so much rainfall over Australia it contributed to lower global sea-levels.”
https://ecos.csiro.au/climate-change-and-extreme-events-quantifying-the-changing-odds/
Wait. What?
2011: Coal miners to blame for Queensland floods, says Australian Greens leader Bob Brown
GREENS leader Bob Brown says the coal mining industry should foot the bill for the floods because it helped cause them.
https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/coal-miners-to-blame-for-queensland-floods-says-australian-greens-leader-bob-brown/news-story/cbfe12042fa9c4149ea3c10524f57344
Science? CSIRO. Not in the same sentence. Not any more …
2011: Carbon tax hit small: CSIRO
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-tax-hit-small-csiro-20111112-1ncvq.html
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Yes, I was reading the Australian museum website today, they have pages on Australia’s climate through history.
https://australianmuseum.net.au/learn/australia-over-time/evolving-landscape/the-pleistocene-epoch/
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“Blame the ocean currents for our bush fires”
Or, The models. ‘It’s worse than we first thought’ …
“Due to the massive impact of extreme ENSO and IOD events and their projected increases, it is essential to improve simulation of these modes of variability in climate models, upon which these projections are based.
Climate models are not perfect, and a large source of uncertainty exists in future climate projections, primarily caused by model error.
Therefore, the impacts of these model errors on climate change projections must be assessed.
When these errors were investigated, our researchers found that many models simulate winds over the tropical Indian Ocean which are too weak compared to observations.
This error can lead to an underestimation in the projected response of the IOD to a warmer climate.
Another common error in climate models is a weak interaction between the tropical oceans.
Some recent work led by Hub researchers found that the real-world tropics are a tightly interconnected system, with strong feedbacks from the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean onto the Pacific.
Improving the simulation of these feedbacks in climate models provides a pathway forward for improving predictions of climate variability in the current climate, and for refining projections of future climate.
These improvements will provide decision makers and managers with more accurate information about what our climate could look like in the future and therefore how best to prepare for this changing climate.
via: The Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub is funded by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, with co-investment from the following partner agencies …
CSIRO
BoM
Australian National Uni
Uni of Tasmania
Uni Nsw
Monash Uni
Uni of Melbourne
http://nespclimate.com.au/science-update-what-does-the-future-hold-for-el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-the-indian-ocean-dipole/
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So the paper concludes with:
This paper describes rainfall in three of Australia’s largest cities for the last 178 years using several mean and extreme rainfall indices. It has nothing to do with drought.
Also I like the small towns 4 – out 260? All in one non representative area, which tells what sort for the rest of the continent and nothing about the capital cities.
Please explain how a paper on extreme rainfall compared to the mean, can have anything to do with CO2?
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Correct, extreme rainfall has NOTHING to do with increased atmospheric CO2
Was it pure luck you got that correct ???????
Neither does any extreme weather, for that matter.
Glad you think that drought has nothing to do with extreme low rainfall. DUMB !!
Or do you think extreme only goes one way.
Yet again we see the trollette exhibiting extremely little comprehension.
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Oh, could this be the enlightenment that Peter Fitzroy is seeking.
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OK!
So Peter
Climate change is also responsible for Floods too!
As Travis said above.
So is it responsible for everything?
Wet
Dry
Cold
Hot
Ice
Drought
Hail
Dust Storms
Cyclones
When are you going to get your story straight mate?
OH!
That’s right, electricity costs 14 cents a kilowatt!
Your Man Made CO2 is bigger than Kryptonite!
Except Peter – there is no superman!
161
ah, no, not cyclones. They’re caused by the sun so you can leave them out.
20
In the tropics, yes climate change is increasing rainfall
17
No evidence again from you, just random BS statements.
Now you can explain the decrease in tropical cloud cover since the 1980s
That is what is responsible for most of any slight warming, that and the strong solar cycles.
50
Pretty sure that only the wet tropical areas had a negative trend, albeit small.
00
Rainfall has nothing to with drought? What am I missing?
Read the Pitman link before telling us what the science says.
90
“All in one non representative area”
WOW, In your mind, its as though the Gippsland, NSW border area didn’t have any fires. !
That’s even more empty-headed than most of your other comments. !
How is that even possible !!
100
“How is that even possible !!”
It’s the “Peter Principle”
10
The CSIRO Climate Report 2018 says CO2 is causing global warming and upsetting the Australian hydrology, wetter in the north and dry in the south.
‘April to October rainfall has decreased in the southwest of Australia. Across the same region May–July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 20 per cent since 1970. There has been a decline of around 11 per cent in April–October rainfall in the southeast of Australia since the late 1990s.’
Do you have a problem with any of that?
61
4 cherry picked locations. If those 4 locations had been in the tropics they would have shown increased rainfall. Dishonest does do it justice.
An article about extreme rainfall in capital cities, and no one is mentioning UHI?
But best of all to make claim that CO2 is not responsible because you say so? Assertions do not beat facts.
Wake up and smell the smoke
114
But dishonesty is all YOU have.
Those sites are representative of the Gippsland – SE-NSW area, uninfluence by monsoon rains
Why would you use places in northern Australia, just DUMB !
There is absolutely NO EVIDENCE that atmospheric CO2 has any affect on rainfall or weather or climate whatsoever.
You have NO FACTS.
Maintain your FANTASY, its all you have. !!
71
CO2 has little direct effect on the weather. Indirectly, though, it promotes plant growth which can result in changes to the weather.
If CO2 levels fall to dangerously low levels the desertification of the planet will begin. This is the opposite of what the alarmists warn of.
50
Fortunately, China, India, Africa, Asia and in fact most countries around the world, are doing their bit to maintain/increase atmospheric CO2 levels. 🙂
00
“extreme rainfall in capital cities, and no one is mentioning UHI”
So now you are FANTASISING that UHI affects rainfall.
WOW !! Let’s see your evidence of that little anti-science dropping.
61
“they would have shown increased rainfall.”
LOL.. thanks for again helping us show that the current drought is WEATHER, not climate.
FYI, Increased rainfall does not cause droughts. 😉
Count your toes again. ! 😉
91
‘ … and no one is mentioning UHI?’
We are discussing precipitation?
40
Well yes el gordo we are discussing precipitation. But an UHI elevated temperature is going to change the dew point, and allow the atmosphere to hold more water. When it rains, it will be heavier, more like the tropics.
16
That depends on the winds.
If it’s calm & warmer, true
If it’s windy at all, FALSE !
30
Okay, I’ll think about it.
‘ … as the air warms its water-holding capacity increases, particularly over the oceans. According to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the air can generally hold around 7% more moisture for every 1C of temperature rise. As such, a world that is around 4C warmer than the pre-industrial era would have around 28% more water vapour in the atmosphere.’ Carbonbrief
30
EQUALS = MORE RAIN !
( not less as some foolish dumbnuts would have us all believe )
10
UHI is only over a small localised area, which is why not accounting for it, but smearing it over the whole country makes the surface temperature fabrication so laughable.
There is no evidence of any of these pockets of UHI force changes in rainfall.
If you think there is, PRODUCE the measured evidence..
41
“and allow the atmosphere to hold more water”
Again with the fantasy nonsense.
Rain systems invariable come from outside the UHI areas.
61
‘When it rains, it will be heavier, more like the tropics.’
Observation suggests that isn’t happening, because of the other variables in play. If we go back to the Holocene Climate Max we should have a rough idea of what life on this planet will look like in the not too distant future.
It was so hot and wet that ENSO stopped working.
00
What happened last year? Floods in the north, drought in the south. What is happening this year? Floods in the North, drought in the south.
Referring back to the holocene as if the conditions were the same displays a lack of serious thought
13
yep, it’s called weather.
41
‘ … displays a lack of serious thought.’
Methinks too much serious thought.
‘What is happening this year?’
Blocking will continue, but we have the advantage of a strong wet season bringing moisture down from the northern tropics to the midlatitude. Keep an eye on the low pressure troughs. Average rains can be expected throughout the rest of summer, but not a drought breaker until La Nina begins to show later this year.
00
The Sydney rainfall readings go back to 1858.
I find it bizarre that apparently there are complete daily readings all those years until some were missed in 2017 and 2018.
And this is “Observatory hill” which surely should be one of best stations.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=066062&p_nccObsCode=139
80
I find this is poor taste…comparing mythical “climate change” to the very real slaughter of Port Arthur….
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/port-arthur-moment-business-urges-pm-to-lead-on-climate-amid-bushfire-crisis-20200113-p53qzq.html
“Business leaders have described the unfolding bushfire crisis as a “Port Arthur moment”, urging the Morrison government to adopt a co-ordinated national strategy to confront climate change and aggressively reduce carbon emissions.
“Prime Minister Scott Morrison this week signalled his government would take stronger action on climate change and support new renewable technologies, although he ruled out lifting emissions targets and introducing a “tax” on carbon. But the mooted policy shift has not quelled concerns within the business community.
“The Business Council of Australia said there was a need for “credible” climate policy. “Climate science tells us that extreme weather events and natural disasters will become more frequent and intense so we need a credible climate change and energy policy that puts us on a transition path to net-zero emissions by 2050,” the influential industry body said in a statement.
120
if Mini-Mal had a pair he’d come out and tell the business council that he’d listen to what they have to say when they stop being hypocrites about their co2 consumption (and spruiking for policies that increase co2 emissions like unsustainable immigration policies).
so when they send their submissions written in squid ink on the back of a banana leaf delivered by carrier pigeon, maybe he will pay attention.
70
more figures I do not feel are evidence-based, tragic as the real story is, undoubtedly.
yet this was across the Sky News Australia screen for ages during Chris Smith’s program tonite.
sadly, true Sky sceptics are still on leave, and the programming couldn’t be much worse…except on theirABC:
9 Jan: Gizmodo: An Estimated 1.25 Billion Animals Have Perished In Australia’s Bushfires
by Brian Kahn
Australia’s bushfires have no shortage of horror stats. The blazes have burned 26.4 million acres. The smoke has traveled more than 7,000 miles. They were sparked following Australia’s hottest year ever recorded…
A staggering 1.25 billion animals may have perished in the fires according to estimates by University of New South Wales ecologist Chris Dickman and World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Australia. The losses mean Australia’s forests may never be the same, and they show that climate change is a form of violence on the natural world.
The concept of a billion anything is a tough one to wrap your head around, let alone applied to kangaroos, koalas, wombats, wallabies, snakes, and other creatures that are now dead or dying. Yet here we are, living in that world. The estimate was made using a methodology developed by Dickman and others in a 2007 report (LINK) for WWF, Australia that found for every 1.6 million acres of Australian land cleared, 104 million animals would perish.
Applied to the fires, the model shows a level of carnage nearly unheard of in the natural world over such a short period of time. While numerous animals have died in the flames, others that survived could be living with injuries that will eventually kill them. Or they could die from lack of food and water in the now-burned out forests. And a news release (LINK) from the University of New South Wales notes the methodology yields an estimate that’s conservative and doesn’t include insects, frogs, or bats…
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/01/an-estimated-125-billion-animals-have-perished-in-australias-bushfires/
Smith also had journo Andrew Clennell on re the stupid Newspoll (which hasn’t been correct in years). I couldn’t care less about PM Morrison, but I can’t imagine the message – even if the results were accurate – would validate Clennell’s analysis, which concluded with something along the lines –
PM Morrison might recover if he can get more massive RE projects up, while not losing jobs!
50
Now its 125 billion…i guess if you count all the ants
This is all about driving the emotional response of punters. Its all about people “feeling” like climate change is “real”.
As they say, if you harness the emotion, and you harness the fool…..
61
Australia is not a land of drought and flooding rain, it is a land of drought and drought and drought and occasional rain. Drought is the natural state, rain is the exception.
The world is still recovering from the little ice age and there are no records of what Australia was like before it as Europeans arrived here at the very end of it, the last Ice Fair on the Thames was 1812. So we have no idea how habitable this continent will be when the planet returns to the inter-glacial norm of 2 degrees warmer than today. But I guess we will find out over the next few centuries.
152
Good one.
51
Neil
As a uk weather historian but with a keen interest in oz as I have a sister living in Adelaide,
, can I endorse your post?
Oz as a A very dry land with occasional flooding rains seems to sum up our post colonial knowledge and endorsed by various local poets.
If global temperatures rise one or two degrees more, towards the heights of the medieval warm period, as experienced in Europe, then presumably drastic measures will need to be taken to conserve water,get rid of surplus brush and keep populations within fairly narrow bands
Tonyb
80
Neil
Here is an article on Australian droughts back to 500ad
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL062447
its quite long so suggest you read 3.2 which confirms a 39 year long oz drought towards the end of the MWP
Tonyb
60
‘Nonetheless, it is clear that this study identifies far fewer megadroughts during the long, wetter middle epoch of A.D. 1260–1860.’
Throughout the colder phases of the LIA we can presume that La Nina was robust, this is clearly visible at the end of the Renaissance in Europe. Cool wet summers and shorter growing seasons produced famine, while in Australia there was probably an abundance of game.
40
Thanks for this article. I didn’t know there was a rain history for ensay at the BOM. It looks pretty correct from memory. To be honest I’m surprise they haven’t “re-trended” it yet.
70
Doh! Why did you have to say it out loud? 😀
40
What we really need is a royal commission into why we keep throwing billions of dollars at climate change when the billions already spent have achieved absolutely nothing in terms of controlling the climate. That’s right, absolutely nothing. How can such expenditure possibly be regarded as an efficient and effective use of public money? It hasn’t been to date and never will be. Unfortunately it continues.
161
Reminds me of an ex Water Authority guy in WA who mentioned that all the ‘high efficiency’ shower heads, dish washers and washing machines we were all exhorted to install had saved no more than about half a December day’s average rainfall (for Perth, almost nothing). Industry and agriculture uses about 80% I think.
Remember being urged to replace those evil incandescent lights with LEDs and compact florescents and look for the star ratings on any new electrical appliance we bought to, you know, ‘Save The Planet”? That was just to enable to energy utilities to ratchet up the power costs without appearing quite so bad on your bill. And after all that, we’re now told it’s had no effect.
Scam Watch should get onto this crap.
80
It’s like the metal drives of WW2 when people handed in their old pots and pans. No use from war production, but it helped the general population ‘feel’ like they were doing their bit and so kept them involved.
50
Any suggestion that the four non-metro stations shown above are some unrepresentative sample from the same region shows little understanding of the ongoing bushfire problem in Victoria and New South Wales.
The article even states that they are from the bushfire zone.
51
Could you perhaps explain your comment?
30
That has already been suggested above by a regular negative comment-poster.
31
O.K.
It seems to be linked to #15
10
He’s replying to Peater at #14. Misplaced comment.
31
Do you understand the size of Australia? Do you understand the extent of the fires so far. Why no stations from Queensland, Northern NSW, etc.
Those 4 were picked because they support the narrative, not for any science or logic.
017
Very curious Fitz
WE do understand the size of this continent.
And that means that Australia has a monsoonal climate in the North
And a mediterranean climate in the South.
Completely different climates !
But the evidence Jo presents does is for 2 locations
Melbourne & Sydney
Where roughly 55% of Australians live.
Surely that is significant for them !
And the other 4 locations
Are tiny places with very small populations.
The fact that all of them show similar cyclic patterns in rainfall
Is what matters.
You need to study & think about these things
Before you open your mouth here.
61
Brian Gunter has been analysing
Rainfall patterns in NSW, Vc & Qld
On his blog :
https://briangunterblog.wordpress.com/
Brian also finds no significant change towards a drying climate
For all the places he has examined.
And again he uses the BOM’s own recorded
Rainfall observations
Including the ones that the bOM itself throws away
In it’s misinformation propaganda campaigns.
61
Gabo Island? That representative of what exactly?
112
Rainfall for the area.
Stop digging yourself in deeper and deeper to your mental abyss.
60
Didn’t know the seas were on fire
18
LOL… you really are showing just how THICK you are.
Its rainfall is representative of the area.
I’d ask to to try to comprehend, but I know that cannot happen.
60
There you are then Fitzroy: you’re ignorant.
It’s all right, you don’t need to panic about it, in New Zealand we were keeping a very close eye on the Tasman so your fires didn’t spread to here. As it was, a bit got into the Napier (Tangoiro) area where it was quickly put out.
41
It’s just off shore from Mallacoota
That tourist own in Far East Gippsland
Which had to be evacuated by the Navy
Because of the fires 2 weeks ago.
Surely even you remember that Fitz !
Or maybe not ?
50
its closer to the NSW border than it is to Mallacoota, and is surrounded by ocean. why not use the Mallacoota weather data instead, it must be more representative than Gabo Island.
Why not use Forster, Katoomba, Toowoomba or any other town that had fires this season?
17
Simple you dopey fool
BOM’s rainfall records for Mallacoota go back to 1985.
BOM’s rainfall records for Gabo Island go back 1865.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/?ref=ftr
Do wish you would check around before you exhibit your foot in mouth disease again !
51
Why not Eden then. Face it these stations were selected on the basis that they fit a narrative. It proves nothing to a true sceptic.
15
Go look at Eden Fitz
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=069015
Sure the observations starts in 1860. But there are significant gaps in the observations for 18 years over the past 159 years…( Just ask for the monthly totals for each year.. And you will see the gaps in the total rainfall for those 18 years. ..Even you can do this Fitz – in between giving koalas a hug !
31
WRONG, they are a random selection of sites.
Eden is pointless, too much missing data, especially this century
That is BOM efficiency for you. 😉
Go and find a site with good data and produce the graph..
PRESENT EVIDENCE.
Or don’t. !!
20
Eight and a half hours after I wrote comment 24 (just below comment 21), a keyboard hero had to insinuate that I know nothing of the fires or of Australia, when evidence of the contrary was right in front of him.
One of us had to fight a fire at a moment’s notice recently. One of us records rainfall personally. One of us lives in and understands the bush.
That one isn’t you. Clearly.
50
twaddle
06
Presumption be your middle name.
Without a single scrap of evidence, you presume that I have made it all up. Thus from someone who thinks CO2 is destroying the planet!
No doubt you think I’m a rabid conservative too.
50
I won’t bother answering you again. I met lots like you on the political left, all talk and no substance, yet ever willing to denigrate the substance of others. I could write your stuff for you in a flash. But it wouldn’t make it true.
50
I won’t bother answering you again. I met lots like you on the political left, all talk and no substance, yet ever willing to denigrate the substance of others. I could write your stuff for you in a flash. But it wouldn’t make it true.
30
No – I’m on the record here of working with the RFS (roadblocks) and the Koala Hospital (rescue) – and for both actions I copped a heap of scorn from the commentators on this site. If you had known that would you have posted as you did. So if my efforts are scorned, what makes you a saint? – Hence the twaddle comment
Postcript
January 13, 2020 at 9:39 pm · Reply
Any suggestion that the four non-metro stations shown above are some unrepresentative sample from the same region shows little understanding of the ongoing bushfire problem in Victoria and New South Wales.
The article even states that they are from the bushfire zone.
I was saying that bushfires have been burning since September (starting in the ranges on the QLD/NSW Border), and in 4 states, yet those 4 stations are selected from one non representative area (one of which is in the Tasman sea).
I’ve been breathing smoke since October, what about you?
23
So, little peter titles his own post, and leaves it empty.
So funny !
00
I suspect you have been breathing “herb” smoke most of your life !!
Jo is looking at the Gippsland fires.
If you want to look at the first in your region..
Do it yourself!
Don’t complain because you are incapable of doing so.
12
I suspect you have been breathing “herb” smoke most of your life !!
Jo is looking at the Gippsland fires.
If you want to look at the fires in your region….
Why not find the evidence and show us.
Don’t complain just because you don’t have the ability to do so..
01
Trouble is, that you have a reputation of being in inveterate liar.
Nobody believes anything you say.
02
Moruya Heads Rainfall
Oh look , same pattern 😉
No sign of ANYTHING except normal variability.
(great link to Brian Gunters site, thanks Bill)
Or how about Collarenabri in Northern NSW
Or Tenterfield
12
There’s that hilarious doubling down on “stupid” you so mock yourself with. !
So funny !
54
… it’s actually predictable.
21
Note, if you do intend to publish, please make sure you are not cherry picking.
20
I’m on an edge of the bushfire zone above and some of our property was burnt.
That wasn’t the first fire here and it won’t be the last either. It would be easy to blame climate change and carbon dioxide, but the reality is that we live in a volatile environment and fires are part of that. I have property-specific rainfall records going back decades and I can’t for the life of me see any pattern other than droughts happen regularly.
What I will blame is green tape, beloved of those who use climate change and carbon dioxide emissions as excuses to prevent people such as myself from managing our own farmland in such a way as to diminish the threat to ourselves and others.
170
Well said. 🙂
Farmers know how much their rights to manage their own property are strangled by pseudo-environmentalist rules.
91
It appears that part of the unspoken plan is to eventually drive people off the majority of land.
So…if you can tie the hands of land holders behind thier backs ( so to speak ) so they cant clear firebreaks etc and get regularly burnt out and give up and walk away, the climate cult clowns have won…..
71
Just curious – do we have reliable records of humidity going back a reasonable length of time? It might be interesting to see how that fits in with temperature and rainfalls.
40
Goat grazing seems like a good idea in bushy, weedy overgrown areas to reduce fire risk.
Produces meat/milk and no smoke or risk associated with prescribed burns.
FIRE PREVENTION: Firefighters use a herd of goats to help clear brush to prevent wildfires
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81R5wDr39ik
These people at Daylesford also collect firewood but seems like council want to stop them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWI6QCLEV6I
51
“These people at Daylesford also collect firewood but seems like council want to stop them.”
Collecting firewood reduces fore risk.
Fire is good for driving people off the land…..
Driving people off the land I think is actual aim, the mechanisms ( especially beaurocracy ) is one of the main tools they use. Local agencies who are less accountable to the Executive than larger agencies can be more easily infiltrated by Leftists and turned into political weapons by crushing dissent via bad rules and regulations…..
100
If you do go for goats (and it sounds like a good idea) you wouldn’t want any with a tobacco habit.
20
In northeastern Victoriastan if you want wood from the roadside it’s not worth the greentape to council but some of the well picked over forests are open at certain times of the year with no permit necessary.
There are restrictions on how much you can take at anytime though .
10
Simon and GeeAye went into hiding?
70
Maybe the grandkids are visiting?
40
I expect it’s their RDO. Peter is back again; his time on.
50
Wish I could have an RDO, I haven’t had one since the last time I ‘worked’ in a State govt agency many moons ago.
40
Implicit in blaming ‘drought’ for fires is the unstated assumption that the longer there is a deficit in precipitation, the drier and more flammable fuel becomes. However, every wet season, the fuel gets wet, which is why prescription burning usually takes place during the wet season. It has to be dried out to become highly flammable; that only takes a few days of elevated temperatures! The primary role that extended drought takes in the fire cycle is stressing trees, making them susceptible to being killed by insects, and sometimes killing trees outright. That leads to a buildup of dead wood falling to the ground, increasing the fuel load. Which is a good argument for thinning dead wood. But, without ignition, wet or dry, vegetation does not spontaneously burn. More emphasis has to be placed on preventing arson and careless accidental ignition! Thinning of dead vegetation may reduce the potential homes for insects and some birds, but I’ve never run across anyone who complained that there weren’t enough beetles around. One doesn’t have to remove all dead trees to increase resistance to wild fires.
30
Australians arguing about climate change policy and cutting fossil fuel use misses the point.
South Australia, along with Denmark and Germany now have the highest electricity costs in the world ranging from $US 0.35 / kWh. To $US 0.42/ kWh. It’s no accident that these countries also have the highest per capita investment in expensive renewable energy. China meanwhile using coal power has a cost of $US .08/kWh. They have used this to bring 300 million people out of poverty by capturing a huge amount of manufacturing jobs using cheap electricity .
China is building the Pan Asia highway and plans 700 coal fired power stations to bring a further 300 million people out of poverty.
This is irreversible…politically, economically, and morally. If the Chinese tried investing in renewable energy the cost in manufacturing jobs lost would be huge, probably de stabilising the government.
So Australia arguing about coal, or having a policy of eliminating coal usage and exports, is absolutely pointless. The Chinese and the Indians will not, and cannot take any notice of Australian de carbonising policy because they HAVE to use coal to continue their manufacturing economy.
It is moral cowardice of Australians to demand coal climate change policy which will prolong the poverty of hundreds of million of people in Asia and Africa.
181
Climate experts quickly forget,
What they claimed about hotter and wet,
When a great hue and cry,
Opts for hotter and dry,
Though, no CO2 signal as yet.
140
13 Jan: SMH: Government energy adviser calls for ‘national leadership’ on emissions
By Fergus Hunter, Dominic Powell and Simon Johanson
The government’s top energy security adviser Kerry Schott has warned “national leadership” is needed on emissions policy as the relentless uptake of renewables transforms the electricity market, pushing Australia to a greener future but jeopardising the reliability of the grid…
Dr Schott, the chair of the Energy Security Board, said the country’s catastrophic bushfires revealed the need for a resilient energy system and warned a lack of national policy was making management of the grid increasingly difficult.
***”The big picture is we have got an enormous amount of renewables coming into the system, both large and small scale. Solar is generating more than gas, wind generating more than brown coal. With all of that said, we are still burning a lot of coal,” Dr Schott told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age…
With the explosive growth of more variable renewable technology, she said the system had been struggling to maintain security and reliability and required more hydroelectricity, battery storage and gas…
“If we went back to the [National Energy Guarantee] or to something that links emissions reduction to reliability and security, that would be great. That really needs national leadership.”…
In the past 12 months, 3184 megawatts of large-scale solar and wind came online. Homes and businesses have also been installing rooftop solar at a rate of 150,000 units a month.
A spokesman for Energy Minister Angus Taylor said electricity prices were coming down and the government had prioritised encouraging new reliable energy supply…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-energy-adviser-calls-for-national-leadership-on-emissions-20200113-p53r2a.html
30
Nero fiddling while Rome burns…..
20
renewables are not “reliable”, or is that the new politically correct (1984) term for them?
40
“ruinables” is the more appropriate term.
30
This is absolutely not true, every bill I get is higher than the last. My bill has gone up ~125% in the past 2 years (way above inflation) and my electricity use has been going down!
70
Fat-fingered the percentage.
should be
My bill has gone up ~15% in the past 2 years …
60
I received an email from Origin saying my bill was being reduced but it’s only a tiny amount .
20
Lucky you! Be thankful for minuscule mercies!
00
That is pure unadulterated Bull$h!t, and the person who said this is ‘allegedly’ the chair of the Energy Security Board no less.
I could forgive it if it was a journalist, and again, this is a case of (incorrectly and probably dishonestly seeing who said it) attributing Nameplate as being higher, but the word in question here is ….. generating, and this Schott person actually says the word ….. generating.
The last year (well, any year you care to pick really) and this is the most recent year, 52 weeks, 365 days.
Total Nameplate Wind power – 6702MW. Total generated power – 16842GWH
Total Nameplate Brown Coal – 4690MW. Total generated power – 32783GWH
Brown coal is delivering just a tick under DOUBLE the power of wind power.
I’ve just mentioned wind power here, because that is the most patent mendacity of all, but even solar is generating LESS than gas, and that’s even adding rooftop solar in there as well.
All solar generated power – 15600GWH
All gas fired power – 18515GWH
What hope have we got when the actual Chair of energy security board spouts flat out lie$ like these two.
I tell ya, we’re stuffed, we really are.
Tony.
90
Here is Kerry Schott’s actual CV
“Kerry Schott is Chair of the Energy Security Board, Chair of Moorebank Intermodal Company, a Director of NBN, and a Director of TCorp NSW.
She also Chairs the Assurance Board for Sydney Metro, and is a member of the Advisory Board for City and SouthEast Light Rail.
Kerry was Managing Director and CEO of Sydney Water from 2006 to 2011. Before that Kerry spent 15 years as an investment banker, including as Managing Director of Deutsche Bank and Executive Vice President of Bankers Trust Australia. During this time she specialised in privatisation, restructuring, and infrastructure provision. Prior to becoming an investment banker Kerry was a public servant and an academic.
Kerry holds a doctorate from Oxford University, a Masters of Arts from the University of British Columbia, Vancouver and a Bachelor of Arts (first class Honours) from the University of New England. She was recently awarded an Order of Australia and Honorary Doctorates from the University of Sydney and the University of Western Sydney.”
Ummmm .. An Arts degree and an investment banker and privatisation expert !
And she is chairman of the Energy Security Board ?
Bugger me ! Which idiotic fool in the Federal government appointed this unqualified, ignorant fool ?
60
You will find the same situation in most government departments
Bureaucrats that know basically NOTHING about what they are meant to be leading. !
20
10 Jan: Australian Editorial: Cool heads needed to craft response to bushfire crisis
The 2019-20 bushfire season has been catastrophic and it is not yet over. There is grief, fear and recrimination. These are inevitable human reactions to be worked through as we shift to the challenging task of crafting an effective long-term response to the crisis. That will require open debate, factual reporting and robust commentary. Our political class has to do its job of weighing all sensible options, relying on sound policymaking, lowest-cost technical solutions and can-do realism. This will be impossible without unfettered, credible journalism digging out the facts and bringing to light a wide range of informed viewpoints.
Right now, social media is driving a campaign of outrage in which an alleged right-wing conspiracy of climate denialism is framed as the key obstacle on the path to a better future…
The evidence of global warming since the Industrial Revolution is clear. More intense fires are an observed reality consistent with the predictions of climate change science. In these pages in September, John Ferguson reported the outlook statement from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-Operative Research Centre: “Its chief executive, Richard Thornton, warns there is significant research worldwide that fire seasons are starting earlier and generally getting longer (and the centre says) Australia is staring at a difficult fire season following above-average temperatures and the severe drought that is gripping large parts of the country.”
On Thursday, our environment editor, Graham Lloyd, quoted the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate monitoring, Dr Karl Braganza, on factors in current fire conditions: a record warm and dry year in 2019, including the influence of the strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole effect and a rare Sudden Stratospheric Warming event above the south pole. Bushfire experts have also pointed to the interrelated build-up of very dry forest fuel loads. We have reported this accurately, just as we have covered the well-attested role of arson in igniting fires, a risk that deserves more attention in times of climate change…
As Prime Minister he should command discipline within Coalition ranks and project a clear resolve to do what has to be done on climate change and bushfires. We should continue to be a good international citizen by contributing to climate change mitigation while being pragmatic about global politics and preserving the economic strength that allows us to fund Australia’s adaptation to new ecological realities. We should aspire to global leadership in handling the transition to renewable energy, and be quick to exploit new technologies and unexpected fixes…
Ever since the Howard era, our governments have accepted the need to respond to global warming. And unlike many other countries, Australia has matched its rhetoric with credible actions to meet mitigation targets. From large-scale wind farms to rooftop solar, the growth in per capita renewable energy is well ahead of the rest of the world.
Yet Australia has become a scapegoat for climate activists frustrated by the failure to galvanise big global cuts in emissions…
In the local outrage, it’s become common to denounce as climate denialism any attempt to include non-warming factors in the mosaic of bushfire science. This represents the frail hope of progressive elites that if framed as an absolute moral imperative, climate action will break through and win universal support. But this is no substitute for the hard work of persuasion and coalition-building. The mainstream are worried about warming but they expect a prudent response alert to an inequitable burden of costs. And they will not be impressed by climate activists who refuse even to consider whether misplaced environmental opposition frustrates necessary fuel reduction by prescribed burning. Just how burning should be carried out has to be determined as a matter of science and judgment, not dogma. It’s clear more burning is needed, precisely because of the greater risks brought by climate change…
In our coverage, The Australian’s journalists report facts about how to tackle bushfires and about how to deal with the impact of climate change. Second, we host debates reflecting the political division that exists in Australia about how to address climate change without destroying our economy.
However, our factual account of bushfires, climate change and the remedies, as well as our editorial commentary on these issues, have been wilfully and ineptly misrepresented by The New York Times and Guardian Australia as climate denial.
The truth is that the political and media reaction to this devastating bushfire season is a bid to replay the May election and get a different result. There is a belief that The Australian — having predicted the result — is somehow complicit in driving policies that promote devastating bushfires. This is not only disingenuous but disgraceful.
Thankfully mainstream Australians are smarter than that.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/cool-heads-needed-to-craft-response-to-bushfire-crisis/news-story/40aa0a6d351e8e5578f700dd76717548?__twitter_impression=true
40
Bushfires: Coalition sweats on climate change hot seats
The Australian – 8 hours ago
Coalition figures have discussed how to bolster the government’s environmental credentials amid a rise of pro-climate change voters.
…tide of voters in blue-ribbon Liberal seats who want stronger action on climate change…
As one government MP told The Australian: “We have to change the perception that the Liberal Party doesn’t believe in climate change.”… failed to win in the seats that it targeted in 2019, a pro-climate-action movement had an impact and was…
Atlantic’s Robinson Myer gets a quote!
13 Jan: The Diplomat: Australian Bushfires: A Government in Disarray
PM Morrison has two options: confront the far-right elements within his government or forever be linked to Australia’s climate decline.
By Joshua Mcdonald
Since the bushfire season began in September, the prime minister and many within his government have argued that there is nothing unprecedented about this bushfire season and that Australia has had many like it before, but in fact, previous bushfire catastrophes were single-day events. So far, this bushfire season has seen around 100 emergency warnings across the country over a three-month period…
In the election last year, much of rural Australia voted to re-elect the Morrison government on a pro-fossil fuel agenda. In his victory speech, Morrison thanked the “quiet Australians,” a term coined by populist leaders worldwide…
According to a survey from before this bushfire season began, 77 percent of Australians believed climate change was already occurring, with a majority believing that the government wasn’t doing enough to combat the effects of global warming…
If (Morrison) fails to confront those forces or pursue further action on climate change, the consequences could be endless. The reality of such an outcome has perhaps best been summed up by Robinson Myer from the Atlantic, who argues that under current conditions “Australia will lose to climate change.”…
https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/australian-bushfires-a-government-in-disarray/
20
The Diplomat journalist has joined the media rat pack, there are many omissions like failing to mention that fire services and all emergency services are the responsibility of State Governments, the Premiers and Cabinet and state emergency services managers or commissioners.
And that everything possible for the Federal Government to assist with was provided.
20
Again, actual science proves absolutely irrelevant to democratic politics or policies in Australia.
Getting re-elected with perverse lies has an infinitely higher priority, at all times.
Pragmatism is a-moral and a-scientific.
20
There aren’t any Far Right elements in Morrison’s Government.
As a matter of fact, if you counted all the Liberals and LNP Members who got returned because
Labor ran dead in their Seats in a quid pro quo, then Labor has an unspoken Majority.
And that’s the way it looks.
11
pity the climate election failed! these people are relentless. not sure how these excerpts fit in the piece, which is behind paywall:
Renewables key to carbon cuts as 100 technologies in frame
The Australian – 9h ago
Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor and Resources Minister Matt Canavan on Monday flagged initiatives supporting CCS and investment in lower-emission technologies. … “The best way to deliver on and beat our international commitments is through new, productive technologies and practices that reduce emissions while maintaining or strengthening economic growth,” he (DON’T KNOW WHO) said…
Former Treasury secretary Ken Henry said the least costly means of reducing emissions was an economy-wide price on carbon achieved through an emissions trading scheme. “That’s always been the case, and always will be the case,” he said…
Economics professor Warwick McKibbin, who did the modelling for the government’s Paris Agreement target and has advised independent MP Zali Steggall and John Howard, said the answer to cutting emissions was a price signal in the economy that had bipartisan support…
00
The article mentions 160 years of records but don’t forget the BoM erased all records before 1910 because they didn’t suit it’s political agenda plus “homogenised” records after 1910.
60
I was referring to temperature records. I’m not sure if they’ve yet tampered with rainfall records.
50
They homogenised flood levels for some reason which I sent evidence to Jennifer Morahasy but it must have been on the up and up the reason for doing it .
30
Whilst climate hysteria grows, estimates of climate sensitivity, drop:
Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence
“It is indeed surprising that the EEI [Earth Energy Imbalance] not climbed during the last 19 years when taking into account the ongoing increase of forcing, arising mainly from rising greenhouse gas levels.”
“I calculated the climate sensitivity [effective climate sensitivity] in a temporary standstill period (or slightly decreasing) as it was detected in the observations of the EEI during 1999 to 2018. The ECS value of 1.72K as the best estimate is in excellent agreement with the value found in LC18, 1.66K using the then current C&W GMST dataset (see Tab.3 of this paper).
The published ECS-values of the CMIP6 models have a mean above 4 K (see this recent paper) that is higher by a factor of 2.4 than observed here. This growing discrepancy between observed values of ECS reduces the credibility of the high model estimates.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/13/climate-sensitivity-in-light-of-the-latest-energy-imbalance-evidence/
30
This implies a level of understanding way beyond the realms of possibility. The fundamental concept of a “greenhouse gas” is WRONG. Everything that follows is wrong.
91
the main takeaway for me is just the disjunction between ‘observed values of ECS’ and ‘the high model estimates’ in light of the ‘science is settled’ dogma.
20
The fundamental concept of a “greenhouse gas” is WRONG
BIG THUMBS UP from me !!! 🙂
52
It’s the spectroscopy wot done it. Tindall started it and it’s been continued ever since. If a gas absorbs IR (infra red light) for any reason, then it’s a GHG. The assumption is then made that the molecule which has absorbed a photon or 2 of IR has heated. There’s the problem. It hasn’t. It has absorbed some energy, which it will pass on to other molecules (O2, H2, CO2, or whatever) but it is not as heat. just EMR.
The gas which does do that is water vapour. It carries it’s heat of evaporation with it. It shares it promiscuously with everything. That IR is absorbed from water vapour much more readily: it’s what we call humidity. It hits us and is felt partly because it’s a collection of different wavelengths and water vapour is about 100 times (or more) more plentiful in the lower troposphere and we are in physical contact with the water molecules. It has two single bonds, unlike CO2’s two double bonds.
Water is an ionising compound, CO2 isn’t. But both are very good combustion inhibitors.
30
By calling those gases GHG’s they give most people the wrong idea: this “blanket” of GHGs warming the atmosphere. Einstein spelled it out in 1919, yep, as long ago as that.
The atmosphere is in thermodynamic equilibrium from the bottom of the troposphere to the top of the stratosphere (Dr Ronan Connolly and Dr Michael Connolly), so the “warming blanket” is wrong: IR is just energy and is passed along as that. Not HEAT. Gases don’t heat each other in that way.
30
And the atmospheric controllers of net energy transfer are:
Δ-temperature, Δ-pressure, and/or Δ-density.
Trace levels of CO2 have zero effect on any of these.
11
The climate models all presume CO2 warms the planet.
https://i1.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/clip_image006.jpg?resize=607%2C273&ssl=1
So reality makes clear CO2 does not actually do that.
But ‘climate-science’ still unilaterally decides to ignore reality, and insists CO2 does do it, so empiricism gets plowed-under by the thousands of con-artists stampeding toward the tax money-tree.
“We’re gonna need a bigger carbon tax …”
20
You missed the most interesting bit.
“It’s not the only paper which estimates a near zero EEI trend in the 21st century.”
The slow retreat to real science has started. After all if the Earth hasn’t warmed in the past 19 years despite soaring CO2 levels, then CO2 has to drop from the starring role to the level of understudy for some other actor.
70
That implies a capacity
To learn and change Graeme
That capacity does not exist mate.
20
I’m a little (<-note operative word! :-D) more optimistic Bill. The Big Universities in the US went up one side of the IPCC in 2016 or thereabouts and down another, telling them they had bring the Solar particulate radiation and magnetism (Solar Wind and Galactic Cosmic Ray forcings — for cloud cover) into their models. Trying to do it with just +/- 0.1% of variation of TSI was a concrete balloon which wouldn't fly anymore. Princeton, Yale and Harvard were in there helping administer the spanking. I can't remember who any others were/are.
They turned over their SF (Solar Forcing) database in 2017. CIMP-5 came out and early last year CIMP-6. If any paper mentions the CIMP-5 model as its reference, then bin it. CIMP-5 “has terrible accounting of cloud forcing” according to Princeton, and Harvard alleges CIMP-5 contains “false ocean data.” Sounds like a second switching may have been administered.
I read that CIMP-6 was still showing too much heat or “was running too hot” which was causing quite some concern around August/September or thereabouts last year (2019).
None of this has been mentioned at all in the MSM. I came across bits of it quite by accident but some of it was later validated (for me at least) by Ben Davidson at Suspicious Observers, so I think there’s a good chance much of it may be correct. It looks as though the models are going to improve by several orders of magnitude in their accuracy, especially in their treatment of clouds and cloud cover, and solar particulate streams such as the Solar Wind and more. It’s not before time. I remember Susan Solomon complaining loudly about cloud imprecision back before 2010.
When they get the plasma and magnetic controls sorted out, there should be a further improvement in accuracy but I don’t know: it’s really been quite frustrating. All this really Juicy Gossip! 😀
And it’s all hearsay. So where I’m accurate and where I’m wrong, I just don’t know. It could all be Big Brown Scat …
20
Basically, everything up to now, and probably for a considerable time into the future..
… is certainly NOT “settled” science.
21
Exactly.
10
I don’t understand how they can “improve the accuracy” of anything when their basic “science” – that CO2 causes increased temperatures – is false.
???
Cheers
Dave B
10
… by modifying or rewriting the models to use the Solar forcings instead of CO2. You’re still thinking about the early models. Forget them: they’re GoneBurger — it’s up to CIMP-6 now.
00
The Today show has been criticised over Pauline Hanson’s viewpoint on climate change and bushfires
https://au.yahoo.com/news/pauline-hanson-dismisses-climate-change-causing-bushfires-230426282.html
“I didn’t realise she had a degree in environmental science…” another said.
It appears to be OK not to have a degree in environmental science if you believe in climate change, but not if you don’t.
90
and of course someone with a mere “degree in environmental science” is not an expert or authority on ‘climate change’.
20
TWEET: Ryan Maue
Finally good news:
2019 California fire season saw 259,823 acres burned across the state down significantly from 1.96 million acres in 2018 … more than a 85% decrease.
Lowest since 2011
2019: 0.26M acres
2018: 1.96M acres
2017: 1.55M acres
LINK Calif Dept of of Forestry & Fire Protection
13 Jan 2019
follow-up by MAUE:
Climate change didn’t stop — it was one of the hottest years on record in 2019. So what caused the dramatic decrease in acres burned?
It’s probably a combination of favorable weather (more rain later into summer) & the preventative electricity shut-offs…
reply: Just
I love their statement at end of page, basically “even though it was a huge decrease in fires, climate change is definitely making things worse.”…
reply: Mark Cates
I blame Man-Made Catastrophic Climate Change for the decrease acres burned in California. However, I blame Man-Made Catastrophic Climate Change for the increase in Australia.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1216778193937616896
TWEET: Ryan Maue
Winter is not cancelled?
The EPS update for Monday came in much colder for Weeks 3 & 4 (Jan 27 – Feb 10th) across much of the US
That’s pretty exciting, huh? MAP
13 Jan 2019
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1216831925752684544
20
13 Jan: Age: Siemens stares down Thunberg supporters, votes to stick with Adani project
By Bevan Shields
Emerging from a board meeting convened to decide whether to abandon a $29 million contract to provide signalling equipment for the coal mine’s railway, chief executive officer Joe Kaeser said the company had a “legally binding and enforceable fiduciary responsibility” to carry out the project.
But in a sign of the growing power of the anti-Adani movement in Australia and now Europe, Kaeser said he “may have acted differently” had it been his own private company and moved to invite German climate activists to participate in a new sustainability committee.
“I do realise most of you would have hoped for more,” he said in a statement.
“While I do have a lot of empathy for environmental matters, I do need to balance different interests of different stakeholders, as long as they have lawful legitimation for what they do.”…
Kaeser cited a letter from Resources Minister Matt Canavan – a strong proponent of the Carmichael mine – which claimed the “Australian people clearly voted to support Adani at the federal election in May 2019, especially in regional Queensland”.
“It would be an insult to the working people of Australia and the growing needs of India to bow to the pressure of anti-Adani protesters,” Canavan wrote…
Galilee Blockade spokesperson Ben Pennings attacked Siemens and said the firm had “trashed their billion-dollar reputation for a $30 million contract”.
“Their reckless indifference to the suffering of Australians will be judged harshly, now and in the history books,” he said…
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/siemens-stares-down-thunberg-supporters-votes-to-stick-with-adani-project-20200113-p53qxy.html
at what point, does it become stalking?
13 Jan: Age: Brisbane Adani protests to escalate and ‘become more desperate’ in 2020
By Lydia Lynch; with Bevan Shields
But 2020 is set to be an even more tumultuous year, with climate group Galilee Blockade saying it will not rest until Adani is stopped.
“We can’t back down, we will be escalating protests in Brisbane and elsewhere,” spokesman Ben Pennings said.
“[The situation] is now more desperate than ever and our protests will become more desperate.
“Siemens is going to have to reconsider; it is just too important.”…
An Adani spokeswoman said the company was “pleased to be working with Siemens”.
“With construction of the Carmichael project well and truly under way, we have repeatedly demonstrated that we will not be intimidated or deterred from delivering on our promises to regional Queenslanders, Australians and people in developing nations who desperately need affordable energy to help lift them out of poverty,” she said.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/brisbane-adani-protests-to-escalate-and-become-more-desperate-in-2020-20200113-p53r1x.html
20
Just seen an example of what the protestors are doing with the barrel of concrete on the road / rail crossing , they block the road and railway line by linking their hands through a steel tube in the middle of a metal drum .
The drum is full of concrete and they use scrap metal and bolts etc as reinforcement which then makes cutting them free difficult for the rescuers because of the shrapnel in the concrete .
Sort of like booby trapping any effort to remove them .
20
What about a powder or liquid discomfort injection into the steel tube?
30
… bottles full of poor starving fleas …
10
Get a crane, and dump the whole lot in a 3ft deep sewage outfall pond..
11
someone at BBC has woken up:
12 Jan: BBC: Australia fires: Aboriginal planners say the bush ‘needs to burn’
By Gary Nunn (ex Guardian, writes for ABC etc)
The cool-burning, knee-high blazes were designed to happen continuously and across the landscape.
The fires burn up fuel like kindling and leaf detritus, meaning a natural bushfire has less to devour.
Since Australia’s fire crisis began last year, calls for better reintegration of this technique have grown louder. But it should have happened sooner, argues one Aboriginal knowledge expert.
“The bush needs to burn,” says Shannon Foster.
She’s a knowledge keeper for the D’harawal people – relaying information passed on by her elders – and an Aboriginal Knowledge lecturer at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS)…
Her Aboriginal elders in Sydney have been assessing the overgrown bush and extremely dry kindling for some time, warning that a huge fire is coming: “They compared it to a kid with unkempt hair, saying it needs nurturing.”
But local authorities have forbidden them from cultural burning when they’ve asked for permission…
Associate Prof Noel Preece, a former national parks ranger, wrote the first fire manual for central Australian park reserves.
He says cultural burning is still practised in parts of Melbourne, but largely stopped in south-eastern Australia because vegetation built up in “precarious areas” where cool burns don’t work.
“That said, Indigenous people had extremely detailed knowledge of ‘dirty country’ that needs a good burn,” says Associate Prof Preece, now of James Cook University…
Cultural burning, Prof Preece says, can reduce fuel on the ground from 10 tons to 1 ton. But it’s only effective protection for moderate fires, so it needs to be done in conjunction with hazard reduction burns.
Even then, it only reduces hazards: “With the recent catastrophic conditions of humidity and high winds, nothing could stop these fires.”…
Prof Preece has been in areas where, day after day, the conditions for cooler cultural burning weren’t right.
“It’d be too moist, too cool, too hot, too dry – you have a narrow window. And with many firefighters in Australia being volunteers, they’re working during the week, and you could go four Saturdays till the conditions are right.”…
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51043828
40
Hotter and hotter and hotter the BoM via ABC claims;
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-14/bureau-of-meteorology-chart-shows-how-temperatures-soared/11857404
20
The BoM is no longer a reputable scientific organisation but a state funded political propaganda organisation just like Their ABC.
It is a given that any month or year will now be the hottest eeevvveeerrr…
40
And Opposition Leader Albo is also giving it “a red hot go” he says.
lol
10
This is being “fed” to us in NZ from Gergis and co
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/118770134/some-say-weve-seen-australias-bushfires-worse-than-this-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-facts
10
A drought period left out of discussions is that starting in the late 1830s. It was not the longest drought, but in view of its spread and consequences, including depression, it may have been as bad as any experienced since settlement.
The trouble is, those with a memory of the late 1830s probably had no experience of the early 1790s. In view of what happened to India during the colossal monsoon failures of the early 1790s it is possible that this drought was on a par with the very worst, but since the tiny new population was huddled at Port Jackson and Rose Hill we will never know.
We certainly know what happened at Port Jackson. Australia did not take long to be Australia for the new arrivals. One problem not mentioned about the early climate disasters is that construction, agriculture, communications etc were thwarted before and after that drought by storms and flooding, especially by the “Great Flood” of 1806 which mangled all the new work along the Hawkesbury flood plain.
If such episodes and events like the 1851 fires have not equipped us to see our climate for what it is then it will be game-over for rationality. Someone only has to report that a recent dry spell has caused something not previously mentioned or recorded that is enough to confirm the notion of “new” climate. Every fresh event is held up to the light for subtle differences as a distraction from less than subtle similarities with past disasters.
Makes you wonder why those Sumerians invented writing. Or maybe the Sumerians took the time to read and we don’t.
91
just clicking through a few links about ‘fire season’ to the BOMs ‘state of the climate (2018)’
page 5 heading: “There has been a long‑term increase in extreme fire weather and in the length of the fire season across large parts of Australia since the 1950s.” [emphasis added]
they have 2 graphs supporting this assertion:
(1) “Trends from 1978 to 2017 in the annual (July to June) sum of the daily Forest Fire Danger Index” [emphasis added]
(2) “Area average of the number of days with FFDI greater than 25 (very high fire danger) in Victoria in spring for the years starting in July (1978–2017)” [emphasis added]
What?
30
Looks like i got disconnected from #42, so here’s the link to BOMs ‘state of the climate (2018)’
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2018.pdf
20
Something I’ve noticed lately is that “everyone” seems to accept that the planet is warming, albeit by a tiny amount and over quite a long time. What I would like to know is how the global temperature is calculated because this seems to me to be an area that could be subject to “creative accounting”. From searches, I have ascertained that “average” temperatures are simply the sum of the minimum and maximum divided by two. This in itself introduces a large margin of error. I have experimented with a small spreadsheet into which I have entered the minimum and maximum temperature every hour from 10am until 9am the next day, extracted the minimum and maximum and then averaged those. Then I recalculated the minimum and maximum as =MIN(SUM(B2:B26)/24) and =MAX(SUM(C2:C25)/24) then averaged those. The results I got were min 7, max 36, average 22 in the first calculation then min 10, max 28, average 19 from the second calculation. Whilst these may both be legitimate ways of recording temperatures, the differences are significant.
Having, by fair means or foul, arrived at an average temperature for one station, what I would like to know is: a) whether there is a fixed list of stations used to calculate the global temperatures (if the list varies from time to time it follows that the results will also vary); b) are the temperatures used all averaged as above (and which calculation is used); and c) are temperatures all recorded at exactly the same time everywhere (presumably a time based on UTC)?
30
OT but has rather large ramifications for the greentards and possibly South Australia
Back in early 2016, the first Tesla Powerwall was installed with much media fanfare and the enthusiastic owner set up a blogpost site with articles like these linked below
https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/my-tesla-powerwall-tales-of-an-early-adopter/
https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/calculating-the-return-on-investment-of-my-tesla-powerwall-battery-storage/
https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/first-home-to-get-tesla-powerwall-gets-its-first-energy-bill-and-the-saving-is/
The reason I didn’t link to the article on the blogpost site is that it is reduced to this:
http://unleashthepowerwall.com/
If I interpret the implication of the bodyboard, it lasted less than 4 years…
41
All batteries are limited by
operating temperature
rate of charge
rate of discharge
battery chemistry
depth of discharge
The PowerWall is no different. Tesla conveniently limited their original warranty.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/07/02/teslas-incredible-shrinking-powerwall-warranty/
“Under the original Manufacturer’s Limited Warranty Certificate (USA), there were iron clad performance standards that told customers exactly what they could expect over the useful life of a Powerwall. Under the revised Tesla Powerwall Limited Warranty (USA) there are no standards whatsoever.
Apparently “normal degradation of your Powerwall’s energy capacity over time” is an ad-hoc decision that Tesla Energy will make in the future as warranty claims arise.”
01
Sure but all the full greentards think that you install a battery once and you have storage forever. And the partial greentards expect 15 years out of the things. I was always suspicious of Tesla’s claims but under 4 years in real world operating conditions surprises even me.
I did do a few searches to try and find more details about this installation or even any further news/articles mentioning the owner but there is NOTHING since late 2017. Neither is there any news at all about the 6 Powerwall / 24 solar panel / 3 inverter system that was installed up in the Gold Coast in late 2016 nor the 10 Powerwall 2 Domino’s installation in Sydney (to store grid power for peak consumption) back in late 2017.
If these were success stories, then the likes of RenewEconomy, CleanTechnica and SolarQuotes would be providing updates on the installations as case studies. Even the installer, Natural Solar, have no updates on their site (you can still apply for a Powerwall quote, though).
This all looks like another massive fail for the “renewables transition” since batteries are supposedly the cornerstone for removing the need for gas peakers. The remaining content on the Unleash The Powerwall site suggests that the owner has walked away with his tail between his legs.
31
But surely in Australia
Australian consumer protection law applies.
Not Tesla’s warranty !
00
It also makes the “Virtual Power Plant” concept highly questionable since the depth and frequency of cycling greatly increases with these systems. And this throws the whole “micro-grid” concept into further doubt since the VPP is integral for these.
Again, a massive fail for the “renewables transition” from centralised power generation and distribution.
Being able to edit a post would be SOOO nice
20
This is a good summary by experts who know what they are talking about:
https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391
27
The CON-versation of far-left AGW apologists, you mean.
They even show themselves that this is a WEATHER EVENT of 3 year very dry WEATHER.
or did human CO2 cause the extreme high rainfall the year before as well.
And according to data , ENSO is still borderline El Nino, and the IOD has been dragging moisture the wrong way
The La Nina coming towards the end of the year, and a switch in the IOD, will cause the AGW chatterers to say human released CO2 causes rain.. as well as drought
CO2, the all powerful, catch-all, does anything they choose to attribute to it.. no evidence required. !!!!!
They write this stuff for their week-minded apostles, and you fall for it every time.
52
Next week, when New York City and surrounds fall to around -16 C to -20 C it’ll all be somehow blamed on rising CO2, aka, green-house effect, aka, Climate-Change, aka, Climate-Crisis, aka, Global-Extinction-Krisisth, aka, whatever irrational baseless BS and lies the green-puss wished to spread around, with zero accountability for their endless lies.
And Simon will be along again to say, “See, I told you so! See all the climate-change? It’s happening, and sooner than we ever thought!”
41
Well if the alarmists are claiming it’s happening sooner than we thought then they should just sit back, weather the storm (pun intended) and STFU because there is absolutely nothing the nations of the world can or will do to stop it if it were real, which of course it isn’t. If there is a solution to the alleged crisis then please oh please tell us. Otherwise they should be told to STFU. Our so called leader PM Morrison should be the driver for telling them where to go but he won’t because he has no backbone, or perhaps worse one of them.
11
And your bet of 7 years ago, because that how long we’ve been waiting to the cycle to change. Like that prediction what chance of anything you say being true?
WXcycles
NEw York has just been through weeks of very warm weather (up to 20C) – strange that a sceptic like yourself missed that.
/I didn’t – I was there
14
STILL no evidence of any warming by atmospheric CO2
SEVEN years is a LONG, LONG time of zero evidence, isn’t it . !
Much of the USA has been setting record low temperatures..
Strange you haven’t commented about that, hey. ! 😉
How many toes do you have left ???
Oh wait.. you are always firing blanks, aren’t you.
22
so they’ve been having all the weather, while we have all muh climate change!!
10
Patricia, according to this web site
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york/10007/december-weather/349727?year=2019
Yep…got to 20C on Jan 12.
max 14C in December
max 22C in November.
max 34C in October
max 34C in September
max 33C in August
However……in 1950 & 2007 according to this link :
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycjan.pdf
New York got to a sweltering 22C….quick pass the beer!!
30
umm, I flicked through one of their first assertions and found it unsubstantiated (see 44 above).
Then we have OMG, the models!
Those proposing a banal scientism (as at link) would do well to bear the words of John Locke in mind:
“Four sorts of arguments. Before we quit this subject [Of Reason], it may be worth our while a little to reflect on four sorts of arguments, that men, in their reasonings with others, do ordinarily make use of to prevail on their assent; or at least to awe them as to silence their opposition.
I. Argumentum ad verecundiam. The first is, to allege the opinions of men, whose parts, learning, eminency, power, or some other cause has gained a name, and settled their reputation in the common esteem with some kind of authority. When men are established in any kind of dignity, it is thought a breach of modesty for others to derogate any way from it, and question the authority of men who are in possession of it. This is apt to be censured, as carrying with it too much pride, when a man does not readily yield to the determination of approved authors, which is wont to be received with respect and submission by others: and it is looked upon as insolence, for a man to set up and adhere to his own opinion against the current stream of antiquity; or to put it in the balance against that of some learned doctor, or otherwise approved writer. Whoever backs his tenets with such authorities, thinks he ought thereby to carry the cause, and is ready to style it impudence in any one who shall stand out against them. This I think may be called argumentum ad verecundiam.” [emphasis added]
20
Models are now acceptable on this blog as per http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/busted-reef-fish-arent-bothered-by-acidification-scientific-fraud-ok-at-james-cook-uni/
Argumentum ad verecundiam – works in a pub – not in science
15
Quote me Peter. I’ve always said “All models are wrong but some are useful.”
I married a modeler.
For someone who didn’t read the first 9 years of this blog you are just “making stuff up”.
71
You STILL haven’t figured out that the model was an secondary-study that they did AFTER actual science had dispelled the fallacies of many of the JCU GBR papers
I know your comprehension level is abysmal, as in at the bottom of an abyss,
but AT LEAST TRY !!
41
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”
that’s very funny from someone who keeps quoting a manifestly invalid consensus.
10
‘ … the absence of El Niño conditions typically associated with previous severe fires.’
A very positive IOD filled the gap perfectly.
30
So it’s now IOD or El Nino, or sunspots, or volcanism, or wayward jetstreams, or the greens? Is this a raffle or is it denial bingo
110
chaotic system with many variables v co2 is THE climate control knob.
is this even supposed to be a serious debate?
50
As the article says, a positive IOD or El Nino are known to cause drought and bushfires, but there are other drivers in play and it has nothing to do with elevated levels of industrial CO2.
So in the beginning a quiet sun compresses earth’s atmosphere, forcing the jetstream to meander, which impacts the subtropical ridge, creating slow moving blocking high pressure. It would just sit in the Tasman for days and north westerlies from central Australia became the new normal.
60
Almost bingo right there. (should have mentioned the greens)
you appear to accept that not one factor dominates, but all contribute (apart from greens)
So in a system where one factor has increased, how would you expect the others to respond?
or
Is it a requirement for your model that all factors are independent, and can have no effect on any other factor?
or
Does you model accept that energy, as expressed in heat, air pressure, wind will have an effect on all the other factors?
15
WRONG again
Many factors contributed to the intensity of the fires
Drought. A natural WEATHER occurrence, unaffected by CO2
I pointed out the colder water above and below Australia.. That was caused by the IDO,
Try to LEARN, you are making yourself look incredibly stupid.
Build-up of fuel load, a LOT due to pseudo-enviromental lock-out and neglect greenie pestering and infiltration into local council.
Meandering southern jet-stream causing hot blustery cycles.
But there is NO EVIDENCE that human released CO2 has caused any of these things
You have nothing but your usual baseless conjectures and pointless blathering.
41
There is NO EVIDENCE that atmospheric CO2 is a factor in either WEATHER or CLIMATE
Stop your ridiculous and petty cult preaching until you can provide such real empirical evidence.
41
Peter’s blah-blah does remind me of the mindset seen in 1980s cult groups, breathless zeal, no brain use except to preach wrote regurgitation of the brainwashing, no sense of proportion, no possibility of being wrong. Pure obsession, untrammeled by contrary fact, impervious to reform, unable to be honest about it either. Strident desperation, mostly to believe in the memes and prophesied myths of impending planetary doom.
Prepared for a long and healthy life Peter.
20
Sorry you don’t have the vaguest understanding of WEATHER patterns.
Sorry you STILL have absolutely no empirical evidence it has anything to do with human released atmospheric CO2.
Sorry you think that strong solar and UV cycles don’t cause warming (living obviously to your natural surroundings, maybe? )
Sorry, you can’t see basic patterns in meandering jet streams even when the measured velocities are posted in simple picture form.
But there really is no accounting for your base level ineptitude and lack of comprehension of basically EVERYTHING..
31
Only person in DENIAL here is you, Peter.
Your belligerently held cult mantra beliefs allow nothing else but DENIAL of natural WEATHER pattern and events.
Tell us what we are DENIAL of that you have real empirical scientific proof for ?
We are waiting and have been for a long, long time. !!
21
The abstract mentioned in the article by Eun-pa Lim et al. is good value.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0456-x
20
‘However the current drought is affecting areas such as coastal NSW which have not historically been influenced by positive IOD and El Niño events. This suggests other drivers are at play.’
At this early stage I suggest that blocking high pressure might explain the anomaly.
10
There needs to be an adjustment to the data. No idea why the BOM has not already done this.
Because it was colder in the past the water was contracted and now that it is hotter it has expanded. So 10mm back then is worth 15mm in today’s rain. Further more, if you use atmospheric CO2 as a proxy for temperature to use as the adjustment factor you will see that the decrease in rain fall now perfectly correlates with the CO2 increase.
Its all to do with science.
50
Ringo, there’s a job waiting for you at an Australian institution today …
90
I think the logic of the CO2 camp is best explained by Monty Python’s “How do we know she’s a witch?” sketch
If she weighs the same as a duck she must be made of wood and therefore a witch! Burn her!
All deniers (just because she has a wart doesn’t mean she’s a witch) put up against a wall eh Greta.
50
“Opinion: If the climate is changing, so must we ”
https://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/story/6578730/if-the-climate-is-changing-so-must-we/?cs=4726
22
We are doing all we can, our wealth is being transferred to needy developing world countries and profiteers.
sarc.
20
Brian Gunter’s blog has lots of real examinations of the BOM’s Rainfall records ( from it’s Climate data site )..And Brian examines the droughts to see if they are getting worse or more frequent.
Answer : No the droughts are a perennial feature of our climate and the current one ( which looks like it will end tomorrow ! ) is not the worst. Barcaldine is examined in this post today : https://briangunterblog.wordpress.com/2020/01/14/barcaldine-drought-rainfall-2/
40
“A picture is worth a lot of words. CO2 and warming since 1895”
And link at
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/01/14/a-picture-is-worth-a-lot-of-words-co2-and-warming-since-1895/
20
Yep and Phil Jones says the warming rates for 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-2009, are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm
10
I guess it wouldn’t matter how many facts and how much common sense we have on our side, I don’t think our civilization can survive the critical mass of brainwashed and intellectually vacant citizens we’ve seemingly accumulated.
Most definitely, nothing can now save the ABC from its commitment to piledriving the nation which feeds it into the ground.
So sad to watch Scomo raise the white flag in principle to these fanatics. He acts like he’s still resisting total fanaticism but then concedes in principle to their dogmas and fraudulent M.O.
G.K.Chesterton was right almost 100yrs ago:
51
Hi Jo. I have really enjoyed your graphs and they confirm on the macro level the climate has not changed. It has changed on the micro level for many, and this will add to the problems of repairing the environment and making it safer.
To paraphrase the first lecture of Environmental science 101, trees protect the soil from the sun. Their canopy and the water they release through transpiration cools the air above and less heat is radiated back into the atmosphere. When the trees are removed for say broad acre farming, the sun heats the soil and can even sterilise it. The heat is then radiated back into the atmosphere creating a column of very hot air moving upwards. A cloud is blown along and it runs into the hot air over barren land and the water vapour remains in a gaseous state – no rain falls. However when the cloud moves over the cooler air rising from the wooded area the water vapour liquifies and down comes the rain.
We have areas in Australia where more rain falls over bushland than on the cleared kilometres next door. So when a farmer says he is getting less rain and it is hotter he is probably right. It’s not that the rain is not falling, it is, but not on his bare land. Repairing our land will be a Herculean task. I just hope the people appointed to run schemes to remediate the environment know what they are doing.
10
I follow the inner planets around the sun and knew 30 years ago that this was a dry summer and predict that Dec 2021 and Jan 2022 will be a lot wetter than average so prepare for floods now buy selling your home if you live on flood plan, just like if you live in bushland in dry summer expect to be burnt as the weather may be average one year and then you have weather which is extreme either dry or wet. The media brushed over the fact the Indian ocean was actually cooler which caused the winds too blow the wrong way I think what happened besides my theory on the weather and upper atmosphere of south pole warmed up then returned to normal.
20
where are these predictions?
00
My prediction for Dec 2021and Jan 2020 is that Venus is retograding just before mercury does in January which takes many years to be in postion at time of year for a wetter than normal summer
Recently last year mercury retrograde which was in a way too produce dry weather. Not all retrograde are the same and varies each year. Some produce wetter weather than others
Just have to wait until 2022 to prove my theory
00
I mean the evidence that you knew this would be a dry summer because planets?
00
“Mr Morrison said he accepted climate change was driving longer, hotter and drier summer seasons and the government’s emissions targets need to “evolve”.
Why would our PM want to misrepresent the clear evidence of these graphs?
Why have a Bureau of Met if you are going to ignore its observations?
30
Melbourne rainfall seems to be more consistent over the 150 or so years of record keeping, with a few dry years scattered amongst the wet. 2011 was the most recent wet year according to the graph. The unholy trinity, 1967, 1997 and 2002, are Melbourne’s driest years.
00