JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Why is CAGW still so popular? D-rats in USA campaign for elections with it even though it is the least important issue in the polls.
Many of us are beneficiaries of the green new deal. Special interest groups, lobbyist, come the first. They can pocket subsidies directly. Corm farmers wants to sell their products for motor fuel. Government employees and contractors want more money and power. Ordinary people and businesses rely on entitlements. Bankers want carbon trade. Media wants to keep the advertising.
You can’t oppose the CAGW narrative if you livelihood depends on it. You will survive cognitive dissonance if the peaces of the story do not work together.
Bullying the opposition silences its best experts. There is little upside in speaking against the CAGW.
232
It’s more than just money at stake. Power, prestige, and privilege are also major factors. Not to mention just telling others how to live every facet their lives. The parallels to a corrupt religion in bed with the state are strong.
342
All true but the one factor not many want to admit is people by and large are too lazy to do their own research. No excuses please, such as being too busy with work and the like. If we as a nation really want to do the right thing and become a great country again we the people need to wake up. We already have some people calling out CAGW as a scam and a hoax. Not many are listening.
231
In defence of the ignorant masses, they have been brainwashed by sophisticated propaganda. I promise you, without fear of contradiction, that once auntie gets back to the centre then the CAGW edifice will collapse.
150
True propaganda is a powerful force. However, it only is allowed to be propagated as long as we have leaders who remain silent or act in a way that aligns with the propaganda, such as people like Morrison who acts and behaves as though reducing emissions is important and does nothing to call our public funded broadcasting organisation the ABC into account for begin the master propagandist in all this. We need a leader who calls out the CAGW for what it really is; a scam and a hoax. Otherwise, the propaganda will go from strength to strength.
221
STORM THE GREEN BARRICADES!! Surely it is
time to act, or even react – not just sit around whinging.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/01/03/our-mission-in-2020-is-to-storm-the-green-barricades/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=best_of_the_week&utm_campaign=20200104&fbclid=IwAR2vixc_x-GFMzMLcy25nPCn81nH_s8LD0cpiroO-47efF962JjRiqNxcG4
Let’s strike back!
90
We had just such a leader in Tony Abbott…the most courageous and prescient leader in the world…it’s why they [including Scott Morrison who played a seminal role in the coup as the Photios faction leader] ousted him to install the Goldman Sachs candidate to obey the Paris diktat.
That the LW journalists actually approve of Morrison and forgive him every gaffe and misstep…the same crowd that destroyed TA for biting an onion and doing a kindness [at the Queen’s request it’s said]…for Prince Phillip….tells us IMO that Morrison’s no good for Australia and/or democracy….if we didn’t already know that due to the fact that he’s relentlessly…defiantly…doing Turnbull/Labor policy ie their Transition of Australia to a third world dark age.
The Left is actually at war with democracy worldwide IMO…it’s what CAGW’s about…it’s what they’re always about…but this is the most active worldwide assault on democracy and on individual democratic states in our lifetimes.
The only brand of democracy they will tolerate is the Nordic variety where the individual is constrained…hostage to the all-providing state that keeps him ‘happy’ as a sop for the heavy hand of Socialist government and Law that will put the people at risk any day if PC purity seems threatened…the ‘happiest people in the world’ tag spruiked in international surveys… just more Nordic State PR.
The Norwegian series ‘Occupied’…running on Netflix at the moment… suggests how CAGW might unfold…series 3 ending in a way that IMO …if taken seriously….is incitement on a monumental scale by the series’ writers and producers.
Hope this isn’t a spoiler for anyone thinking of watching it…but it’s a bit chilling IMO… especially for Australia.
110
One thing to watch with “pro-coal” people is the nature of their support. Are they fighting hard to make it a critical resource for powering Australia in centuries to come…or are they there to look after the export cash cow?
Not that I’m against coal exports (greatly exceeding our consumption) but the globsters seem to have much more interest in shutting down domestic consumption than in stopping exports. To hear some green-tinged politicians (which is most of ’em), you’d swear our coal stops being “durrrrrdy” the moment it floats away on a boat.
Over to you, ScMo.
100
Here you go again el gordo with the wishful thinking about the ABC getting “back to the centre”; you’ve yet to produce any evidence that such a process is on foot. I can think of only one occasional radio presenter, Tom Switzer, who presents an exception to the nauseating groupthink that permeates the corporation.
The ABC is beyond remediation and needs to be wound up.
261
I have faith in David Speers, with the aid of Ita, purging the newsroom of Trots. This process might take a little time.
16
Maybe you’d better do a hurried rethink
“ABC Chairwoman Ita Buttrose tweets “Australia is Committing Climate Suicide” ”
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/01/abc-chairwoman-ita-buttrose-tweets-australia-is-committing-climate-suicide.html
90
Having watched him for years, I have no faith in David Speers whatsoever…I think he fits ABC like a glove.
Almost all of David Speers’ interviewees on SKY DAYTIME were of the Left. He never put the hard questions on the big issues to them…so the result was always that they put out the LW propaganda unimpeded by truth…with a big win for the LEFT and a sliming [ while Speers giggled inanely] for people like Tony Abbott and Craig Kelly…or any conservative.
There was never one of his specialty ridiculous GOTCHAS designed to get him a Walkley…. for people like Oquist of the propagandist Marxist [IMO] Australia Party…only for conservatives telling the truth.
The myths that are spun around people like Speers are the reason the Long March of the LEFT prevails and prospers.
SKY DAYTIME…with Speers heading them censored out all of the US news…all the Clinton dossier and FBI running amok stuff… except the DEM-promoting CNN fake news version…nothing from FOX…the most trusted US network…nothing positive about Trump and the Republicans was ever allowed to be seen by the Australian people…the same to this day so far with him gone..but no senior journalist of any integrity…especially the leading journalist on news… should have stayed while such a situation prevailed.
It should really matter that Australians get the truth …warts and all on both sides… about our closest ally and their POTUS because the Alliance is vital and Australians need to be onside with a clear-eyed understanding.
131
Sadly I might be wrong on both counts, thanks for the updates. Looks like I may have to eat my words and slump into depression.
60
We can only hope………but doubt it. !! Too many at the ABC will defend THEIR Kingdom to the death….!
110
The ABC would be a force for good if the Government was any good.
I believe that was the case back in the Menzies Era.
Conclusion: Federal Governments since 1966 have been no good. That includes Scotty’s.
50
Both sides of politics become unhappy with the ABC editorialising, particularly on climate change. The organisation has moved sharply to the green/left and the old girl needs to regain her balance.
40
The ‘old girl’ has next to no legit reason to continue to exist, especially at our expense, and in so many ways.
130
Re brainwashing – have a read of Sharyl Attkisson’s “The Smear”.
One positive sign I guess is that the Trump supporters have seen through it, so there is some hope for at least some of the rest
60
I have bought copies of the book for several of my friends. In particular I gave one to a friend who told me that Sky and 2GB were responsible for getting rid of Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister. After she read “The Smear” she told me was quite shocked and I’m counting that as a convert.
If you can afford it, buy a copy for your friends. It is one of the most important books of the last 10 years.
20
‘ … we the people need to wake up.’
The government is on our side, as evidenced by Angus Taylor falling back on his Kyoto credits at the recent COP gab fest. A large handful of other nations jumped on his bandwagon and the place was in disarray, there was no agreement on a way forward.
The Australian government is turning its back on insanity, so now we wait for the MSM to take off its green cloak, revealing AGW has no clothes.
132
So when is he going to come down hard on the ABC the master propagandist? Until he does he is just another career politician who is more interested in himself than helping the nation to be great again.
151
I share your frustration, but Speers now has the anchor job, so we’ll have to wait and see.
33
Frustrated yes to some extent but more like disappointed. Disappointed that Morrison didn’t take the initiative when he won the election to end the emissions scam in a similar fashion to what Abbott did when he ended the “carbon tax” scam after he won. Instead Morrison kept it alive and is still promoting it.
110
If we have learnt anything from the Abbott coup, keep your head down and become a small target. We are playing the long game.
Renewable subsidies have finished and Angus kicked the IPCC in the teeth. They are not trumpeting these successes, yet.
83
So we have lost already. They are playing the short game.
00
We don’t have the luxury of giving up, but its fair to say that if we go to the next election with both majors still singing from the same songbook, then we are truly sunk.
00
Read https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/01/03/our-mission-in-2020-is-to-storm-the-green-barricades/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=best_of_the_week&utm_campaign=20200104&fbclid=IwAR2vixc_x-GFMzMLcy25nPCn81nH_s8LD0cpiroO-47efF962JjRiqNxcG4
10
Direct evidence & thoughts from a bloke in the Firezone in East Gippsland
The son of a former neighbour at W Tree :
https://www.facebook.com/woodburn84
30
Grab this start to 2020 to be at your vocal best and write more than normal about what people are starting to realise -that CC has no mechanism to make fires worse, it cannot be blamed. Then point to how understory vegetation does make fires worse to get a horrible outcome when petty trends by leftist dreamers help to slow controlled burns. Geoff S
282
Greens have now become MURDERERS.
276
It might not be just the Greens the States either Labor or Liberal National are also negligent.
The Black Saturday fires in Victoria 2009.
https://t.co/GdsqqUCkR2
41
Liberals and Nationals were in Opposition 10 years in Victoria and 2 years Federally, at the time of the 2009 bushfires.
50
A picture tells more than a thousand words :
Here is what hazard reduction burns can do :
https://www.facebook.com/woodburn84?fref=search&__tn__=%2Cd%2CP-R&eid=ARDXwY7IeUTzupqyAbJqiGVwMH-V2SplQdW1QdNfbO1mjmx07368If6AKn_RQKTvEEcthCU-L9rluvl6
00
Bill, FYI,… some of us wont touch Facebook for a million bucks !
90
Green civil war in Germany?
By David Wojick
https://www.cfact.org/2020/01/02/green-civil-war-in-germany/
The stage is set for a big fight between two green Titans — the Green Party of Germany and Greenpeace Germany. They sound similar and used to be so, but no longer. When it comes to climate change, Greenpeace is a leading Action Now! radical group, while the Green Party is becoming ever more moderate. This is clearly a prescription for political conflict.
These are two big outfits. Germany is the fourth biggest national economy in the world and by far the greenest major. In the last national election the Green Party got almost 10% of the vote and recent polls suggest this could get much bigger, more than double in some cases. So the Greens are seen as an emerging political powerhouse.
Greenpeace Germany is also politically powerful, with annual revenues on the order of 100 million dollars. They rival Greenpeace International, which has the rest of the world, in size. Both Greenpeaces are leading hysterics in the Action Now! radical political movement. Both are calling for disruption and Germany reportedly has seen more and bigger Greta Thunberg marches than anywhere else.
The Green Party is becoming progressively more moderate for the fundamental political reason; they want more votes. There is even speculation that Robert Habeck, the personable Green Party co-boss, might be the next Chancellor of Germany. He would replace Angela Merkel, who has been known as “the Climate Chancellor.” After all, Merkel’s ruling coalition is crumbling and the Green Party is coming on strong, at least in the polls. (The new German anti-green populist party is also growing in power, so some of this speculation may be well off.)
In recent weeks, Habeck has gone so far as to explicitly renounce key policies of the Action Now! radicals. For example he has said that people should be free to fly or eat meat if they want to. He knows perfectly well that these radical demands are vote killers.
Up to now the Green Party and Greenpeace Germany seem each to pretend that the other does not exist. The Party’s visible slide to moderation has been well discussed in the press but I have yet to see an article on it that mentions Greenpeace. Habeck certainly does not, lest he goad the radical green beast into action. Greenpeace could easily denounce Habeck, but have not yet done so.
Perhaps they have a political understanding. Greenpeace Germany may well think that the Green Party’s victory is more important than the extreme climate actions it espouses. They probably figure that they will get a big place in the new green government, if there ever is one. If so they are sitting on a powder keg of hypocrisy.
2020 is set to be the year of heated, even violent, rhetorical battles over climate policy, including in Germany. It may well be that at some point Greenpeace Germany will have to draw the line against the Green Party’s growing moderation. As Greenpeace said in Madrid when COP 25 collapsed: “Getting no deal is better than getting a bad deal.” They rejected the moderates then and they can do it again.
In fact rejecting moderation is central to the Action Now! mission. Greta Thunberg does it repeatedly. After all, this is precisely what “Action Now!” means, no more slow moving moderate action on climate change.
If and when this Green versus Green breakup occurs, it should be spectacular. Given the German situation, the Green Party will be fighting for its political life, while Greenpeace will be fighting for its dearly held principles. Both sides are powerful and well entrenched.
Germany could be where the most spectacular battle between the climate radicals and the climate moderates takes place. Sort of like Northern Virginia in the U.S. Civil War, where Grant and Lee hammered it out, except in Germany both sides could lose (to the skeptics).
If the misguided climate action movement is going to tear itself apart, which seems increasingly likely, Germany could be where it happens most definitively, and most publicly. That will be truly fun to watch.
The stage is set; let the show begin. Stay tuned to CFACT for coverage.
Please share this article!
David
The Climate Change Debate Education Project
http://ccdedu.blogspot.com
https://www.gofundme.com/f/climate-change-debate-education
201
Mr. Wojick
I’ve enjoyed your columns for a long time, and here you are capturing the best news for real science believers (aka skeptics) in 2019.
I believe the first sign of problems among the greens in Germany was windmills — those who support them in theory, versus those who have to live within a kilometer or two of them !
Writing an article about COP-25 for my climate science blog a few weeks ago was very tedious … until I realized that something very important for us started there this year — a “civil war” between the climate change moderates and radicals ( Action Now ! ), resulting in even less accomplished at a COP, than usual.
I finally realized in 2019 that real science could not be used to change minds of the coming climate crisis believers cult … because real science never gave them their apocalyptic climate beliefs in the first place.
Our best hope, other than lots of cold weather in 2020, is pushing the climate alarmists to become more and more radical — something they already started to do themselves in 2018.
Don’t argue real science with them — that does not work.
Encourage them to demand very radical actions quickly, that will be unpopular with the general public.
Such as a $2 per gallon gasoline tax to fund windmills and solar panels (in the US).
Encourage radical policy proposals that turn off middle of the road voters, who normally spend little time thinking about climate change.
I know those middle of the road voters exist because of results of polls:
— In the US, a large percentage of people will tell pollsters they believe humans cause climate change — although some are just virtue signaling, to avoid criticism.
Because when asked HOW MUCH OF THEIR OWN MONEY they would be willing to spend to “fight” climate change, the quantity is very small !
That tells me the “support” for “climate change” is a mile wide, and an inch deep.
Let’s encourage more climate change extremism, rather than wasting our time trying to debate with brainwashed fools !
At COP-25, a subset of climate alarmists were so radical that they seem to have started an internal civil war with the more “moderate” climate alarmists (they all seem radical to me, but then I’m a believer in real science).
My summary of COP-25:
https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2019/12/cop-25-full-report-first-civil-war.html
191
Now worry about this.
Right now, in 2020, a hundred or so km west of the fires in NSW, we are running at 5 degrees of warming. That’s a driving factor for the fires, in concert with severe drought.
The wildest alarmists didn’t predict this. It stands as incontrovertible evidence that carbon dioxide is not the cause of the warming that we see.
68
O’Brien
People cause most fires.
Some deliberately.
Is there any evidence that people will start more fires because it’s slightly warmer than a year ago ?
Fires are more severe if there is more fuel for them.
Is there any evidence that fuel has been allowed to build up, to keep the forests “natural”, and prescribed burns have been reduced by regulations ( both done in California USA ) ?
Has there never been a drought in Australis before ?
Australia had very hot weather in the late 1800s that your corrupt BOM decided no one needs to know — apparently Australians were not capable of reading a thermometer in the late 1800s ?
The climate of our planet is the best it has been for humans, animals and plants in 800 to 1,000 years — since before the relatively cold Little Ice Age centuries.
If you want to blame fires in Australia on the wonderful overall climate of our planet, then you are a science denier.
252
Ted, climate is typically defined as a 30 year average, so you cannot have 5 degrees of warming in a single year. Here in West Virginia we are well over 20 degrees F above average today, in fact I am sitting on the porch outside. But this is not warming, just a very nice day for January. Warm and warming are two very different things.
231
Are you the real Ted O’brien?
61
From his post, he is in NSW.
Using the name of someone fairly well known is dodgy, and shouldn’t be allowed.
Robert Swan is another one, is he the Polar Explorer?
00
Maybe misinterpreted you, in which case, apologies.
10
We had a min of 4C here a few days ago.
30
I’ll raise you 8 degrees here and 6 degrees for December Ted. So, you are correct that this ANOMOLY is important in responses in the combustibility of vegetation. I think you have been mis interpreted by other contributors.
60
Well said, Richard (please call me David). Skeptics are having some difficulty distinguishing moderate alarmists from the new radicals, but the difference is strategically important. I am not sure we are in a position to encourage the radicals, but we can publicize their crazy demands. Not flying or eating meat, for example, will be hugely unpopular in every country. With luck the whole idea of climate change action will be seen as wacky (which it surely is).
121
The best way for the public to wake up and realise it’s wacky is to experience frequent blackouts. Surely if we are right and we need base load power to remain as the most significant component of our power generation system then no matter how many renewables we keep deploying eventually things will fall apart once more and more of our coal fired power stations are closed down.
90
I agree totally. They should experiment by ensuring that Canberrans rely solely on renewables for a fortnight, with no interconnectors to other power sources. Then sit back and see what happens.
120
And no secret petrol or diesel generators permitted.
110
Of course that sort of experiment will fail and it won’t be tried for that very reason. T.hHat’s the trouble with our interconnects. It provides the opportunity for some states and territories to move to renewables as their primary source of power while relying on a neighbouring state for base load power when they need it. A better approach is for the federal government to whack on a heavy “carbon tax” when power is drawn from another state. That would encourage them to build more base load power stations instead of renewables. How’s that for reverse logic?
120
Sounds good.
40
Cant realistically be done in a integrated mainly coal fired NSW grid. The ACT sham is mainly a paper shuffling exercise with wind/solar sources outside the ACT.
30
Looks like NSW is about to experience just that. NSW-Vic interconnectors broken and substations damaged by the fires. This report is from the SMH iPad app under Latest News:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-residents-urged-to-cut-power-use-as-fire-threatens-snowy-hydro-20200104-p53ova.html?btis
I don’t know how this affects Canberra, but as their politicians claim100% renewables I guess it won’t affect them at all. Or perhaps just not until reality hits??
Cheers
Dave B
40
Just saw a news article on drought in Africa, same problem as one in AU. NOTHING to do with (globull) warming, changing patterns due to the GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM is the cause. It was dry and very cold in the late 17th cent during the Maunder Minimum. Crops failed people starved. Starvation nowdays isnt such a big problem as it was then, but results are similar. Of course its a form of ‘climate change’ but not what they are expecting, but..wait till they twist it around..
40
Changing weather patterns are also a hallmark of a diminishing magnetic field so it can also be laid at the feet of the incoming geomagnetic excursion.
The field has lost over 15% of its strength and that is increasing. If it accelerates, we will be in trouble sooner. You can see how the magnetic field is mucked up at NOAA:
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/WMM/data/WMM2020/WMM2020_D_BoZ_MILL.pdf
and this will get worse.
20
David the following is off topic but we can forget all the discussion here if this lot get control of the internet.
Tallbloke has a previous article in his archives November 22-2012 and there were others that discussed it at that time but they seem to have missed it this time, you might like to spread the word to your contacts.
UN Begins Process of Handing Internet Control to Ruthless Dictators
By Rick Moran December 28, 2019
https://pjmedia.com/trending/un-begins-process-of-handing-internet-control-to-ruthless-dictators/
00
History repeats: 7 years ago:
“Let’s tell the burning truth about bushfires and the ALP-Greens coalition
Now is the time to point out, perhaps, that a fire which begins in a national park carrying negligently heavy loads of ground fuel can become an unstoppable inferno which will eventually burst out into the Canberra suburbs and kill four people and consume 500 homes.
Now is the time for people who understand the bush to tell the rest of Australia what fools we are.
“Fuel reduction burns make it possible to fight and control a fire; what happened here was uncontrollable,” Dunalley farmer Leigh Arnold told The Australian.
Greenies who oppose such burnoffs, “care more about birds and wildlife than they do about people and farms,” he said.
“But what’s the point of that now when the hills and trees they told me I couldn’t burn off, because there were protected eagles and swift parrots there, are now all burned and the fire it created was so hot we had dead swans dropping out of the sky?”
No, the only permissible comment on a bushfire catastrophe is to say it was caused by “climate change” – that convenient get-out-of-jail free card for greenies, governments and the obstructive bureaucracies they jointly create.
But we’ve heard it all before, and we’re not buying it.
“It’s really simple,” says Brian Williams, captain of the Kurrajong Heights bushfire brigade, a veteran of 44 years of firefighting, in one of the most extreme fire risk areas of Australia, on a ridge surrounded by 0.75 million hectares of overgrown national park between the Blue Mountains and Wollemi.
“Fires run on fuel. Limited fuel means limited fire.”
…”
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/lets-tell-the-burning-truth/news-story/ae30e22c69a0a9a7fe4141bc4e9442a8
331
Deplorable Lord Kek,
My experience, documented.
We have had Coronial inquests and Royal commissions regarding previous bushfires over the last 3 decades.
None of those previous inquests have changed anything on todays fire ground.
A coronial inquest, or a royal commission takes a year or more to present their findings. By then Governments don’t care. They won’t implement the recommendations. They often suppress the findings.
This gives the local and state govts a year or more to postulate and blame anything to save their political backsides over the loss of life, property and catastrophic destruction of fauna and flora that occurred under their custodianship.
The media and govts, anyone with an agenda, will push what they want you to hear.
The public will believe what they have been told over that year and eventually their attention, over time, will fade and move on to the next big news story.
The public, eventually forget about the past and the associated lives and property lost.
And the result.
A repeat of todays history in a few years time.
People will call the future bushfires as the worst they have ever seen.
They will believe in that. Future Local and state governments will absolve themselves. Nothing is learnt and the cycle will go on.
This has happened all through my career.
I am tired of it.
311
4 months, on the peat fires around lake Innes are still spotting. This is peat, there was never any significant above ground fuel.
But I now you are scared of AGW, and refuse to face facts.
238
Fitz I am not scared of anything especially AGW.
You asked me “How does a peat fire spot”
FYI a peat fire doesn’t spot.
A Peat fire is a very slow burning fire. It has high moisture content in the fuel. A peat fire will propagate with very low intensity. produces large amounts of CO and smoke due to incomplete combustion. It will burn underground so it is very difficult to extinguish.
If something spots it is because your peat fire near the surface has caused an ignition source for leaf litter etc. ie ground fuel to heat and ignite and become a bushfire that “spots”.
Hope that information helps Fitz.
311
peat fires burn in places like Scotland and Siberia, even the Arctic, [snip].
Nothing to do with “climate” temperature.
But you knew that, didn’t you.
193
What ignited the peat PF?
20
Peat fires on the NSW coast occur and when they do they burn for months before significant rainfall. And sometimes even after that. Happens on the lower Macleay.
Not knowing something so fundamental about one’s own region gives reason to doubt any pretense to expertise or experience. As to being surprised that peat burns without “significant above ground fuel”…
It’s a bit like the old NSW police commissioner who played shocked when they told him there was immoral behaviour up on Kings Cross.
140
Yes mosomoso, those peat fires around Clybucca have smouldered for months.Of course when the rains come…
40
Agree Mosomoso……..peat fires also burn on the Mid North Coast around Crowdy Head National Park….As of just before Xmas they were still burning underground, after bush fires went through the area in November….
Wish some people would get out of their “Concrete Jungle” and “go bush” and LEARN from the locals !!
40
Peat fires spotting for 4 months. Really?
Anyway that is nothing much.
The Burning Mountain – Mount Wingen NSW.
170
Peat has been a fuel for centuries. If not millenia. There is nothing new about it burning. “Ground fires”, or the slow burning of organic material , including peat, have been a part of observed fire behaviour for as long as people have been documenting it.
It’s nothing new.
There’s a drought on and there is no credible correlation between a warming climate and drought.
Contrary to warmist superstition, it will not go away merely because we don sack-cloth, make sacrifices and erect magic windmills.
70
Eire (Ireland) mines its peat swamps for fuel.
Peat is a precursor to coal, they (the Irish) burn it to drive their power stations. At least they did last time I looked.
Go, the Irish!
00
How did that peat fire start Futz ?
Froma bloody bush fire !
Bugger off
You refuse to learn ever !
40
Of course its like this”
“This gives the local and state govts a year or more to postulate and blame
anythingclimate change to save their political backsides “20
Instead of blaming bogy men, why not face the facts.
It is you and the rest of this blog, with the instance that nothing is changing, temps are not rising etc mean that funding for fire fighting has been reduced.
After all if the temps are not rising you don’t need to change anything now do you.
So man up and take responsibility for thee fires which you have played a major part.
450
Fitz have you been drinking.
You are a valued contributor yet your post above makes no sense.
Can you repost it with a clear mind?
stay well PF
263
I absolutely agree with you Peter Fitroy…
… and the proof of your beliefs will no doubt be borne out when your ‘Climate Change’ causes more catastrophic fires in 2021 because it can’t possibly be your ‘Green Policies’ and ‘Forest Mismanagement’ that contributed to unprecedented ‘Forrest Fuel Loads’ causing these uncontrollable fires over such a large area.
312
Spell my name correctly you cretin you cretinous dog.
Next try to understand that your liberal party has been in power, writing laws and all that for the last 8 years.
012
BTW Petar Fitroy – did you really mean to type “Next try to understand… ‘?
Maybe you meant ‘Next, try to understand… ‘ or ‘Next time try to understand… ‘.
The main thing you need to understand next time is to try not getting yourself so flustered and pent up with bile fueled indignation.
Personal insult and invective is always better left to those intelligent enough to carry it of within grammatical boundaries.
Not to worry, you’ll soon be back at school railing against the system and off protesting against ‘Climate Change’.
Seems rather contradictory really – for you to be protesting against something you believe in…
80
Fitz you have stated that JP is a “cretinous dog”
I was worried you may have been insulting him.
I now realise that you were meaning to give JP a compliment.
My research has found that an author, Jackie Moffat, has published a book titled “The funny Farm”
stated in her words:
“One hopeless, cretinous dog is better than any number of humans, and I speak from experience as I’ve got two.”
40
Peter Futzroo, Try to comprehend that the heathen, anti-human, anti-environmental greenie agenda that you so love and that exists at all levels of petty bureaucracy, is wholly and soullessly RESPONSIBLE for the current level of these catastrophic fires.
You would not liken you to a cretinous dog, because I see no point in insulting dogs.
30
Sorry Petar Fitroy,
I’m quite humbled by your attention to detail.
How did you know I was from Crete?
30
… but I do think it rather poor form to mock people with a speech impediment.
50
I have never said that the temperature is not rising.
I have said that the alarmists have overstated the cause for alarm.
I have said that some of the warmist “science” is bogus.
I have said that some of the people promoting alarm have malicious motives.
And right now I am saying that at the start of 2020, we are already running at 5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2020. Far more than our carbon dioxide emissions could ever cause.
98
O’Brien sez:
“And right now I am saying that at the start of 2020, we are already running at 5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2020. Far more than our carbon dioxide emissions could ever cause.”
Questions:
Who is “we” ?
2020 just started, are you comparing the first few days of 2020 with the first few days of 2019 ?
If so, that is meaningless data mining.
The IPCC claims, with no proof, that CO2 caused ‘over half’ of the global warming since 1950 — that would be about +0.3 degrees C., using near-global UAH satellite data from 1979 through 2019.
Why are you blathering about +5 degrees C. ?
150
Richard your comprehension is lacking.
22
Further, do you dispute the observation as it stands is incorrect? In fact, our area in North NSW has not had a below average maxima for over 2 years and all due to the prevailing weather patterns;in short no cloud from cold surrounding seas. I could mention the inclination of the sub tropical ridge and other factors. This regime is temporary and has nothing to do with human activity.
60
Ted,
Your point is clear to me.
50
“why not face the facts.”
From you, that is the height of idiocy.
You have never been able to back up anything you say with any actual provable “facts”.
Its all just regurgitated, scientifically unsubstantiated nonsense we get from you.
“After all if the temps are not rising you don’t need to change anything now do you.”
There’s that latest stupid meme of your.
Of course we need to something about the NEGLECTED National Parks and State Forests.
That neglect over many years is the cause of the intensity of these fire.
That is where the fires became firestorms, that is what burn ferociously, leaving firefighters little chance to slow it as it got into accessible areas.
Its way past time that YOU started to face the facts.
143
“So man up and take responsibility for thee fires which you have played a major part.”
You know the lock-up and neglect of State forests and National Parks, and the blocking of proper hazard reduction is the real cause for the intensity of these fires.
This pathetic rear-guard ranting of your does, in an attempt to shift the blame elsewhere, not change that fact.
The greenie agenda you worship is now well and truly in the cross hairs.
163
‘ … nothing is changing, temps are not rising …’
Climate has always changed and temperatures stopped rising a couple of decades ago.
90
Who on this blog has said that nothing is changing?
40
Patricia, how can i say this politely….
On the south coast, people have died due to monster fires, due primarily it appears, to fuel management by people who have greenist tendencies.
My own rellies have been backs against the wall and sometimes on a beach, to just survive. People have lost lives, houses and businesses and been forced away as refugees.
For you to bang on with your usual droll and poorly researched drivel, concerns me and annoys a lot of people here. We go to great lengths to make you feel welcome but we get rubbish thrown back at us.
Please think before you post, or I for one will campaign to get you booted from here.
Think hard.
102
Steve, Fitz is NOT welcome here !
10
Well said Steve. Folks die while someone espouses his pet, fantasy theory and attempts to shift blame. CO2 induced AGW is the only bogey man. Excessive forest fuel loads are there for all but the blind to see. Trade in your seeing-eye-dog Peter. Get a better one.
Why not face the facts. Man up and take responsibility for the ferocity and extent of these fires which YOUR KIND has played a CRITICAL part in aiding with misguided policies and antics.
30
Face facts
Inaction on the part of the liberal government that is the cause.
https://www.theland.com.au/story/6520462/hazard-reduction-debate-simply-frustrating/this/?fbclid=IwAR3oG7xtC_GI3XBCKQgNVst0qMVvtn_Kit3lYaddOUHKa2pjyNqjU3tYHuM
Form the land.
Believe what you want, but do not expect rational people to follow your messiah
13
Rational people follow science.
10
It’s Peter Fitzgerald version 2020! Twice the shrill angst and 1/2 the reasonable as the last version.
40
Who is this Fitzgerald – are you so scared that even basic English is beyond you?
06
Just like you Petar Fitroy – only with a ‘z’ in his surname.
20
Basically every facet of basic maths, science, engineering and logic is totally beyond you, Futroo.
STILL WAITING for you to produce some empirical evidence that CO2 caused “climate change” even exists.
You have been a massive FAILURE for so, so long.
10
Have you any good data to say that temperatures are rising Peter? Rural, local and unmolested data? I don’t think you have. I think you are relying on data that is known to be dirty.
00
Deplorable Lord Kek @#4
“ heavy loads of ground fuel can become an unstoppable inferno which will eventually burst out ”
… unstoppable inferno …
That’s the key issue.
Researchers from Australia, British Columbia, and the western USA have studied fire behavior, fire suppression (USA – Smokey Bear), also called fuel build-up, and how to respond.
Past policies have led to unstoppable infernos (an Era of Megafires; EOM – U. S. Forest Service term) and, at this point, about all that can be done is to get out of the way.
Many millions of tons (tonnes) of fuel needs to be removed and much of it will burn as wild fire.
Most fires are caused by something people do, with some arson. Thus, there is an entry point to try to slow the inevitable, and to intervene.
160
Instead of leading, Scotty from marketing has released a video. humblebrag, Bah Humbug!
234
Again, I completely agree with you Peter Fitzroy…
… How Dare our Prime Minister take unprecedented historical action in overriding state government pi$$ing competitions to mandate a common sense National Bushfire Strategy and then have the forethought to include appropriate military assistance and funding allocations for the most advanced fire fighting resources in the world.
303
Yet still I agree with your line of thinking Peter Fitzroy…
… it seems our Prime Minister just has a completely unrealistic belief that it is a more sustainable solution to an immediate problem – rather than dismantling Australia’s entire metal, mineral and manufacturing industry, leveraging all Australians with a Carbon Tax much favoured by the UN, EU, Malcolm Turnbull, and Goldman Sachs, and then wait another 1,000 years – according to Tim Flannery – for Australia’s Zero Carbon Economy to reduce Global Temperatures by .0635°C.
341
On reviewing everything we agreed upon Peter Fitroy…
… and I just want you to know I have nothing but the highest regard and respect for you.
Your statements don’t seem to make sense….
… I suppose continued contact with superglue will do that…
251
You really hate it when someone attempts to help those in need,
…and to overcome the years of State Forest and National Park neglect that has caused this catastrophe,
When someone in power actually SEES the real reason, and wants to turn around all the greenie agenda garbage your ilk have tried so hard to sneak in via the back door.
162
Nahh Andy they are taking the Trumpian hate line. Morrison is illegitimate (if you get what I mean). FitzRoy is beholden to farcebook and tweeter and gets a full on feed of useless opinions from the brain-dead denizens there. I try to have a reasoned discussion with these types face to face – taking a conciliatory attitude and getting childish tantrums in return. Then again, I probably get chuffed seeing green dopey leftoids go apoplectic!
101
‘Bah Humbug!’
Maybe, maybe not, depends on perspective.
‘Bad analyses always promote bad remedies! Blaming rising CO2 concentrations and global warming is only misdirecting real efforts to minimize wildfire destruction. What Australia and the world needs to address is 1) human ignitions, 2) invasive grasses and 3) fire suppression that allows surface fuels to accumulate and enable large intense and destructive fires to wreak havoc like never before!’
Jim Steele (guest post at wuwt)
80
I see a Red Thumb against each of my responses to you Peter Fitzroy.
Isn’t that just so typical of Climate Alarmist’s…
… even when presented with good news they still refuse to acknowledge it – more and more the mentality of a ‘Death Cult’.
143
… even when you agree with them.
Climate Alarmist’s – can’t live with them – can’t live with them.
82
I was delighted with ScoMo’s action. He’s been pilloried for not doing anything, then when he does he gets crap thrown at him. Only he has the ability to call out the troops, but under our Commonwealth rules, those troops can usually only be deployed within one of our states if that state requests it. So his was a brave action. To overcome a deficiency of NSW governance in not requesting that help when it declared a state of emergency – twice.
But then the NSW Emergency Services minister was away, That is, the one Australian who had sole and direct responsibility for the co-ordination of all NSW responses was unavailable, swanning away in Paris.
And ScoMo listened to those firies and acted.
I say: “Well done ScoMo”.
Cheers
Dave B
70
There is more to this idiocy than climate change.
Climate change is just a part of being woke.
Being woke abandoning the real world for a narrative.
It will be very interesting to see if companies that buy into wokeness for marketing prosper,
or if we have a little voice inside that tells us that being fully woke means paying attention to
something other than the needs of the real customer, who might well wish to go elsewhere for goods and services.
On the right (and even in the center, and center left in many countries) most of life is transactional. Both parties
benefit from transactions, which set prices in a market (more or less free) the world’s greatest information engine.
Transactions are voluntary.
In the world of the left, transactions are involuntary, and the fundamental model of satisfaction is appeasement. Whether domestic political
correctness, where it is more important to show one’s company is right thinking than to actually advertise one’s wares, or in international
relations, where the fundamental transactional model is appeasment of the strong and and antisocial vulgar but the “sophisticated” and “refined”,
the models of leftist society are drastically different from any that have ever succeeded in the real world.
IN TV commercials, we see a picture of leftist nirvana. The single most photographed backdrop is the windmills of Mojave. The fact that most are not turning,
is a subtle message lost on the directors. Virtually all families are inter-racial. Except for those that are gay. People, we know, live in cities, yet
either we escape the city in our super car or super dream, and become a hero of the great outdoors, or we find a dream sequence in the rooftop pool, penthouse
suite, or luxury apartment. 2BR 1 1/2 batch 3rd floor walkup doesn’t make the cut, even though it’s better than one can hope for in many liberal cities if one only has
a real job.
We recycle and live green in clean and antiseptic places. The business of providing green props to the commercial industry is probably bigger that
the actual business of green energy. Remember in the early years of computing when all computers on TV were instant boot? Electric cars are now instant charge,
and run into the wilderness without range anxiety. With a few friends, we made a game of finding gratuitous wokeness in commercials unrelated to the pitch.
Its a good thing it wasn’t a drinking game.
There has always been hyperbole, and even outright lying in advertising. We all have cultural filters for the norms of this, to ferret out the truth.
There was always baggage supporting an idealized life as well and one would be a fool to deny it.
But
In the past the idealized life was what the advertisers felt was the consensus aspiration of the audience.
Now is it the calculated political hammer of a companies trying to appease an aggressive politically correct mob, threatening severe damage if a specific
cultural point of view does not ride along with the product pitch.
I hope we are able to reject this, and teach our children well. Economic theory tells us that these companies, paying attention to other than their
customers, will do less well in the long run.
In the meantime, tune up your filter and reject this tripe.
201
The aftermath of the Mid East killing of an Iranian General is typical of the politics of war, when only one side is clear that it is at war.
Being shocked by terror in the Middle East is akin to being shocked by gambling at rick’s Cafe. Not admitting this terror is consistant, persistant, state-directed,
and with military aims of a state fighting an asymetric war is putting ones’ head in the sand.
Killing an enemy does not put one at more risk. If that enemy was effective, the risk, which existed before and after the act is reduced.
Wars start for many reasons, some are cultural and generational and have been with us for centuries. This few that have ended have done so with unconditional surrender.
Trying to hold an incident apart from a general conflict and pretending it has independent political significance is infantile.
I commented above on the general method of the left in conflict being appeasement. Does anyone doubt this?
121
The left’s knee jerk reaction here is because this makes Trump’s reelection that much more certain. When Bin Laden was taken out they praised it. Such hypocrites. Think about. They are crying about killing a terrorist. That is how hopeless their position is.
Assassinating a terrorist with much innocent blood on his hands and imminently about to spill more blood is certainly fair game. This is particularly true as a preemptive action.
Admiral Yamamoto was not a terrorist but (without consulting Congress) FDR signed off on taking a
competent enemy leader out in order to shorten a war. The British probably could have taken out AH, but he would have been replaced by somebody more competent.
171
There’s a few things wrong with your Agitprop.
1. The U.S. is not at war with Iran
2. Qasem Soleimani was a General in Iran’s Army, and was visiting Iraq as part of an official Iranian Government Delegation attending a funeral.
3. Trump was elected on a promise to end American involvement in the Middle East’s wars.
4. Qasem Soleimani was responsible for the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. America is only in Syria to defeat ISIS, allegedly.
Cognitive dissonance, much?
15
The Official Iranian Terrorist and brutal bastard
Is Dead !
Thank God there is no resurrection !
31
The US knows how to dig deep holes. In any event the Iraqis seem to be half thankful for Iranian intervention. The US does itself no favours with its scratchy foreign policy.
20
IIRC Iran declared that war about 1979 and hasn’t called it off
21
Love point 2. So finely tuned to the MSM
31
So, let’s say some Country that we’re not at war with assassinates one of our Generals while he [or she] is arriving on an official visit to a third Country?
No worries, right?
11
Correction: …one of our Generals while he [or she [or xe*]] is arriving …
*Does Australia have any Trans Generals yet?
Best not to take unnecessary risks
20
The guy was actively practicing asymmetrical warfare against the US and her allies. He doesn’t get to hide behind a uniform and title.
20
Although far from Australia and our current concerns, here is the interesting story of David Bellamy, biologist, environmentalist, and former BBC TV science presenter, who passed away recently. For many years, he was rated equally with David Attenborough. Until he was dropped by the BBC in 2004.
His crime? He did not believe in catastrophic global warming, and had the science background to explain why it was all a complete hoax. So the BBC shunned him. In the years since, he never repented, which is why we haven’t heard much since his passing:
https://www-breitbart-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/12/12/rip-david-bellamy-cancelled-by-the-bbc-for-green-wrongthink/amp/
Vale David Bellamy.
260
I spoke to David Bellamy who had been invited as a guest speaker to the WA Local Government Association Local Government week in Perth in the mid 2000s. He knew Viv Forbes quite well. An interesting, humble, learned individual.
20
One of the most well-educated scientists of our generation. An environmentalist to shame the most committed greenie, without the usual stupidity. He is sorely missed. He was badly treated.
30
First they came for the Little Ice Age (LIA). Now they are after the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). What’s next, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
Atlantic and Pacific oscillations lost in the noise
https://phys.org/news/2020-01-atlantic-pacific-oscillations-lost-noise.html
h/t to:
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry
80
And speaking of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), here is a paper that “…compare[s] the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability… These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.”
How did this get through peer review? Surely one of the reviewers pointed out that if it isn’t in the models, it doesn’t exist!
Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2608
h/t to:
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry
50
I lose friends when I say it, but…
Judith Curry’s site, Climate etc, is a calculated exercise in keeping skeptics close to the IPCC fold. She doesn’t mind strong challenges to the consensus so long as we are kept exposed to such comically snobbish notions as “the suite of current state-of-the-art climate model simulations”. The lady’s conversion from full-on IPCC preacher to open-dialogue lukewarmer was too sudden. Her function is to throw out some embarrassing bathwater while keeping the IPCC baby. To keep us in knots there are those navel-gazey essays about uncertainty and “wicked problems”. These deep thought essays go nowhere and are intended to go nowhere.
Climate etc is a spook operation. It’s the state.
And there go a few more friends…
100
Totally agree that JC’s position seems to be borderline consensus. Really hasn’t moved ver much from her initial repositioning. Some people still tell me what would we do without models.I mean how can we KNOW! Zeitgeist indeed.
20
Yep, it’s a psyop. Cognitive dissonance.
Are the spooks lighting the fires as well?
Course they are.
01
Cognitive dissonance again? Learnt something new lately and determined to use it.
11
Ric, that article about the claim that the AMO and PDO don’t exist because they don’t show in climate models is just ridiculous. Surely the models are “tuned” to show what their developers want them to show, and if they don’t want the models to show the AMO and PDO, then they just adjust the models to do this.
30
“Ric, that article about the claim that the AMO and PDO don’t exist because they don’t show in climate models is just ridiculous…”
I agree. It is, however, a good example of what passes for Peer-Reviewed Climate Science these days.
20
Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0662-y
h/t to:
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry
Divergent consensuses? Does that mean there can be more than one consensus? If so, then can everyone have their own consensus?
50
It probably means that there is a logjam when it comes to basic physics. Fantasy physics prohibitions still in place.
02
An Energy Breakthrough Could Store Solar Power for Decades
“…The system starts with a liquid molecule made up of carbon, hydrogen, and nitrogen. When hit by sunlight, the molecule draws in the sun’s energy and holds it until a catalyst triggers its release as heat…”
I thought nature already invented this process: its called photosynthesis.
h/t to:
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-04/moth-poulsen-s-energy-trapping-molecule-could-solve-solar-storage?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-climate&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=climate&utm_medium=social
60
The Downside of Solar Energy
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-downside-of-solar-energy/
h/t to:
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry
41
And remember Ric, that solar power is just nuclear energy from a safe distance.
61
All that article says is that currently old solar panels can’t be effectively recycled. So whaf’s new?
21
“All that article says is that currently old solar panels can’t be effectively recycled. So whaf’s new?”
Nothing new, its just interesting that Scientific American would admit that that fact.
50
Sorry Ric, not criticising you in any way for posting the articles. Just criticising that content of the articles. Apologies if my comments indicated something different.
00
Graeme#4: “Sorry Ric…”
No problem, I assumed you were criticizing the article, not me.
00
In 2020 Climate Science Needs To Hit The Reset Button, Part One and Two
Roger Pielke
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/12/22/in-2020-climate-science-needs-to-hit-the-reset-button-part-one/#71a0229482c7
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/12/23/in-2020-climate-science-needs-to-hit-the-reset-button-part-two/#630da8ea75d1
21
“According to my calculations and estimates, the number of individuals around Australia whose arson has contributed to the current bushfire crisis has now passed 200.
Below, a sample of news reports from around the country for the past several months.”
http://thedailychrenk.com/2020/01/03/australias-arson-crisis/
2009: Australia bushfires: Arsonists guilty of ‘mass murder’ says PM
“The prime minister, Kevin Rudd, Speaking about the fears that arson could have played a part, he said: “What do you say about anyone like that [an arsonist]?
There’s no words to describe it, other than it’s mass murder.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/feb/09/australia-bushfires
>> Egad. I agree with the Kruddster.
60
A toast to the error detectors
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03909-2
h/t to:
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry
41
We’re gonna need a bigger renewables target …
CANBERRA 100% RENEWABLE
LEADING INNOVATION WITH 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2020
https://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/987991/100-Renewal-Energy-Tri-fold-ACCESS.pdf
Canberra chokes on world’s worst air quality as city all but shut down
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/03/canberra-chokes-on-worlds-worst-air-quality-as-city-all-but-shut-down
40
What happens if temperature goes up. Can we blame wind power?
50
Greens Pushing Hard to Blame Aussie Climate Policies for Bushfires
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/04/greens-pushing-hard-to-blame-aussie-climate-policies-for-bushfires/
30
From the fine print of the IPCC Report (AR5) appearing in the comments:
An estimate to a contribution to a probability of some heatwaves!
The previous sentence contained a “could“.
Five tenuous “maybes” between the words “greenhouse gases” and “heatwave”.
30
There are millions of acres of forest in the world that are not burning at the moment.
The US has roughly 300 million acres of forest, about 1/3 of our land area.
Our government is currently reporting two incidents, both in Oklahoma,
one of 135 acres and one of about 550 acres. Hardly a crisis.
OF course, it’s winter, and climate change doesn’t work in winter. It works in the late summer and fall,
combined with seasonal heating and drought, in areas where there is little management and high fuel load.
Managing forests is relatively easy. About 270 million of the US forest is under pretty intensive management,
and much of that has good access for first responders.
Climate change works better in unmanaged forests where access is difficult, fuel loads are high, and during
more sever drought and wind circumstances.
In fact, US fie records are a lot like US temperature records; if you don’t adjust the heck out of them you can’t find evidence of
climate change at all.
Most of the US has suffered a catastrophic bout with fires at one time or another; I’ve lived through these in both New Mexico and Florida…
and its hard to imagine two more different circumstances in the US.
Australia is clearly suffering far more than most with your current fires. The per capita loss of life and property, of flora and fauna, is extraordinary.
We wish you the best. Forest fires in populated areas never occur where they have never occurred before. In California, where they love the environment
more than people, they need only to go to Sequoia national park. Not a single one of these trees, which can live for millenia, is not truncated to
the general forest top level by lightning and fire. The accumulation of brush burned regularly, as lightning did it work, keeping the forest floor
open and clear enough for these giants to root and grow.
Wildlife was usually able to escape. There are actually some plants that spread their seed by bursting in fire conditions. But we discovered in WWI that enough fuel in a concentrated place can create its own local weather and a destructive force as severe as atomics. Who thought we’d create such conditions in a national forest.
There is no aspect of “climate change” real or imagined, that will make a difference in recovery from and future prevention of these Australian tragedies.
One wishes you better luck than California, which is still more concerned with assigning liability and tilting at windmills than addressing the first-order problems on the ground,
which is being left to the beleagured local residents and their dissipated resources.
62
Reform USAID Energy Aid Policies ASAP!
By Paul Driessen and David Wojick
https://townhall.com/columnists/pauldriessen/2020/01/04/reform-usaid-energy-aid-policies-asap-n2558947
The beginning: “Apparently unable to grasp the cruel irony, USAID Commissioner Mark Green boasts that “electricity enables access to refrigeration to store fish, milk, and vaccines. Electricity brightens the night and helps schoolchildren study. Electricity allows businesses to stay open later and makes communities safer.”
Abundant, reliable, affordable electricity absolutely does all of this, as developed countries prove daily. Expensive, intermittent power does none of these things. Unpredictable, off-and-on power cruelly promises refrigeration, heat, light, factories, businesses, jobs, modern schools and hospitals, better living standards, longer and healthier lives – then takes them all away, for hours, days or weeks at a time.
Right now, the average Sub-Saharan African enjoys the blessings of modern electricity 1 hour a day, 8 hours a week, 411 hours a year – at totally unpredictable times, for a few minutes, hours or days at a stretch. Under Mr. Green, the US Agency for International Development would “improve” this horrific situation by ensuring electricity maybe 25-30% of the year: 7 hours a day, 50 hours a week, 2,628 hours (110 days) a year, at totally unpredictable times, thanks to wind turbines and solar panels.
That’s because the USAID won’t support real energy. Its Deep State Obama era policies should have been deep-sixed the day President Trump took office. Instead, three years later, they still impose cruel and unusual punishment for Africa’s “crime” of being the last continent to modernize with 24/7 electricity.”
There is a lot more in the article.Giving poor electricity to poor Africans is despicable.
Please share this.
David
The Climate Change Debate Education Project
http://ccdedu.blogspot.com
https://www.gofundme.com/f/climate-change-debate-education
60
We all should share this with PM Morrison who still believes reducing our emissions is a good thing and will make a difference. The CAGW rot won’t stop until we have a leader who tells the truth and promotes pro-base load policies and stops promoting pro-emission reduction policies. Of course that predicates voters support such a move, which at the moment isn’t looking that healthy.
80
‘The CAGW rot won’t stop until we have a leader who tells the truth …’
Imagine you are PM for a day and I’m your press secretary. A press conference has been arranged and you have to explain why these bushfires are unrelated to CAGW, so I suggest it would be best to remain a small target, but you are determined to tell the people its a scam and run the risk of being vilified.
Give me a couple of small pars we can use as sound bytes and I’ll do a critique.
30
That’s it, the politicians are all afraid to speak outside of group think and the threat of being vilified, and there are a number of examples in past history.
Yet the voting public rejected the extreme climate change based policies of Shorten Labor at the May 2019 federal election. However, I suspect that close to half the population now worries about if not fully believing the global warming by CO2 stories.
40
That is the PMs problem, half the population has been brainwashed. So I suggest as an opening gambit…
‘There has been a lot of chattering in the media of a connection between global warming and this bushfire season, which is demonstrably wrong. What we are experiencing is a global cooling signal producing droughty conditions in Australia.’
62
So you are agreeing with me, he is just another career politician who cares more for himself than for making this nation great again. I do get it though. Much of the voters have their brains turned off and are gullible enough to follow the propaganda of CAGW thanks mostly to the ABC while Morrison is too scared to do anything about it. He won’t even bring them into account for failing to follow their charter. I know he is worried about his worried about the next election like any other politician. It must therefore mean there is no hope for this nation since we keep having leaders who pussy foot around the issue with a major propaganda machine the ABC telling we must do a lot more to tackle climate change, while our education institutions are training students of all ages that the ABC is telling the truth. Perfect storm coming dead ahead.
61
Career politicians are pathetic, democracy in action.
‘There is no hope for this nation as long as the ABC believes we need to tackle climate change, which is outside their charter. Rest assured, a perfect storm is dead ahead.’
10
Thank you to Jo and all (well, overwhelmingly most) of those who comment here for providing an island of sanity (dare I say a safe space?) in my digital environment.
110
This friends is what we are up against, edited and shortened version of what I was sent …
“I don’t think the South Pacific Islanders whose islands have been happily existing for all recorded history and before – prehistory – until now – the last decade. Even in the ice ages and, more importantly the hot periods, when England was tropical, were those South Pacific and other islands were flourishing – as their artifacts/fossils demonstrate.
There is no denying by even the most reactionary scientists that the ice caps/glaciers which are much older than all the Ice Ages, were covered in old glaciers. No melting ice caps for millions of years – if ever. I have been in South America and seen the beautiful old glaciers millennia old, crashing in front of our eyes – ones that have a blue colour – been there for many millennia – which have decreased by more than 30% in the last decade – and crashing down now. Our Republican American friends on the ship with us in Ushuaia, watching these beautiful old glaciers crashing in front of our eyes had to admit reluctantly that nothing else but rapid climate change which could have caused this.
Consider this, if you are wrong your grandchildren and mine will not survive.
If I am wrong it won’t matter and we won’t be aiding Saudi Arabia by buying oil from them. I can’t wait to buy a fully electric car.
It won’t hurt us to stop the burning, the increase in plastics, the disintegration of the Barrier Reef, and other reefs, the Pacific (and other islands) from sinking (when the inhabitants will have to emigrate here), the coal, the reliance on the Arabic countries, etc etc. It will affect you little in your life time. BUT. . .
At this rate of spending on Defence and other ridiculous things instead of saving lives in Australia, China (or whoever) will walk in and take over Australia without firing a shot when we are all burnt out.”
20
Who sent it? Why did you get it?
10
Rick it came from a family member in response to me sending a video on why lack of land management, not climate change, caused the bushfires, too much fuel on the ground coupled to very dry weather.
No, it’s climate change, apparently.
21
There are a few unexplained assumptions in that.
Firstly, how does Global Warming/Climate Change make glaciers flow faster? That may be what they are doing, but the writer just assumes that they are without any details. I am not denying that glaciers are receeding in many places, as they have been since 1780’s (Glacier Bay), 1838 (Mt. Blanc), or the Swiss glaciers from the 1850’s, but they shrank from the end and got shorter. From the description of what they could see from the tourist ship indicates that the end of the glaciers were falling into the sea under pressure of MORE ice pushing behind them.
The beauty of a glacier is in the eye of a tourist, not someone trying to make a living as the ice advances. See Brian Fagan’s (a well known believer in Climate Change) book The Little Ice Age.
As for his electric car, where is his electricity going to come from? Again he is assuming that wind or sunlight or the Fairy Godmother will supply it. Having done some arithmetic (not part of Climate Science) I think that his best bet would be the last choice.
10
IIRC The primary driver of glacial speed and hence, length, is the amount of snow falling in the upper basin from which the glacier feeds. It is as much or more a function of precipitation as temperature.
20
“The first ever….” is being used so many times these days. For example, I hear on the news it’s the first time ever the ADF has been deployed to assist in the bush fires. That’s a blatant lie. Our armed forces have been deployed in the past in similar circumstances.
40
No Peter it’s the first time they have been used to evacuate 100’s of 1000’s of people from a beach in Australia.
01
The last bushfire related evacuation from south coast beaches was done with volunteer operated privately owned vessels.
10
Starting to sound like one of those very specific Guines Book of Records categories. Think the ADF has done a lot of work in cyclones and floods. Know they did a lot of work post 2009 in VIC.
20
“What will it take” From the Volunteer Firefighters website
120
George that’s brilliant.
50
Succinct and clear message – metaphorically accurate as well.
I expect we will continue to see changes in council regulations that limit rate payers from reducing fire risk on their own property. We may even see insurance premiums driving changes.
30
I wouldnt tar all councils withe same brush. I have zero restrictions on clearing trees on my block and free green waste disposal.
10
Delusion – my house burned down because of climate change and the only thing that survived was my “climate change sign ” which ironically was made of wood .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-04/north-rosedale-bushfire-guts-home-climate-change-sign-survives/11839642
20
So now they’re using an actual sign as a sign for supporting their pseudo religious beliefs, whats next an end of times prophecy and the rise of Gaia?
The Warmist cult has been accurate with their demagogues inflicting religious deception, war, famine, pestilence, tribulation and martyrdom, signs in the heavens and silence.
Actually the last one is yet to pass, silence can’t wait for their bloody silence.
10
“He had the right gear. He had a plan . . . but by then his pump was on fire . . .”
So what was his plan, his initial plan? Build his house in an overgrown forest with gumtrees right up to the walls and cross his fingers?
Just look at the bloody trees right up to their house. How many stems per hectare is that? Imagine how much thicker it was before the fire cleaned it out. Yeah, it was Klimate Change wot dunnit. They should have put the sign on their house. That might have saved it.
They reaped what they sowed. I have been struck by the number of tree changers and alternative lifestylers and outright hippies that have been impacted by these fires. This was starting to happen 40 years ago in the South Coast hinterland, but it’s obviously picked up a pace. They burrow deep into the bush then wonder why they get burnt out. Blame coal.
70
Stands out the burnt trees close to the house , blame climate change when the evidence in the photo blames stupidity .
50
Nearly everytime the ABC goes to the fireground to do one of those emotive ambulance chaser interviews “how does it feel to have lost evrything” style, they are standing in front of ruins with trees everywhere around the house site. You lòok at it and wonder what other outcome they thought would happen? endless good luck or something?
30
An excellent article in the Melbourne Herald Sun by Andrew Rule. The way WA prevents major bushfires by 10% burning. The danger of leaf litter. Cool burning. Casual winter burning. Received techniques on burning and how farmers handled all this before the Green Tree changers took over and created monstrously hot fires. He shows that we have to relearn what was already known and likely adopt the WA approach to reducing fuel loads. This is not new knowledge. It is lost knowledge and the intrusion of governments at all levels with ill formed ideas on forest ecology.
140
As was shown by a graph on this site some weeks ago, unfortunately WA has also reduced its rate and number of prescribed burns since 1961, and now the number of bushfires has increased.
50
The common cry is we need to reduce fuel loads to prevent fires. Yes indeed but be aware it’s not possible to do that everywhere. We have over 100 million hectares of bushland covering some 20% of our land mass; many cases in extremely remote areas that are not accessible. The best we can do is limited land management close to populated areas and let the vast majority of our bushland burn when circumstances arise as in the past and now. We have had hot dry conditions ripe for fire-storms many times before and will have them again many times in the future. Fuel loads in most areas are not possible to be managed. All we can do is try to stop the spread of the fires into populated areas, except for those that are tiny in numbers – they just need to be evacuated as they are now and let the houses burn. We have as much hope in stopping these fires as we have in stopping the sun giving off light to cool things down. Proper land management during cooler times is certainly necessary but is only practical in limited fashion around significant populated areas. People who live in remote areas in small numbers should also be allowed to conduct their own land clearing to protect their houses from certain fires but that won’t always work in a fire-storm as they can jump those clearings with ease. Evacuation is then the only practical option.
71
OK but how do you stop local Councils penalising those who do clear a firebreak? (As happened to that bloke in Falls Creek? before the 2009 fires) And how long would it take for them to revert to obstruction?
70
I’m not an expert in the law and legislations but the Morrison government MUST come down hard and over-rule the councils and tell them where to go. I would go one step more and look at penalising those councils. Perhaps they can even be charged with criminal offences, such as aiding and abetting in some of the deaths. Otherwise, nothing will change and the councils will continue with their bad practices that actually promote harm to the people. That in itself should be a crime.
90
Would have thought its up to State Govts to direct councils. They are good rule followers and love to hide bejind the Local Govt Act if challenged to show some common sense.
Does NSW not have the right to clear around houses and boundaries in NSW? That was bought in after 2009 in VIC.
10
State governments are part of the problem. If the federal government can’t fix then no one will.
10
Again, the Andrew Rule article explains a lot about how farmers and riders managed this. They do not have to burn the entire forest, just clear the place. I presume medium to tall trees are largely not damaged by forest floor clearing and small cool fires. It is about reducing the severity of fires, the heat content and stopping total destruction in a self perpetuating inferno. You cannot fight a fire of that severity.
10
Peter.
To be blunt, you are dead wrong to claim that we cannot manage fuels in “remote” locations.
The fallacious assumption is that we have to treat each small area as a seperate item, whereas we can do very large areas indeed (as we are now for fire control) by putting a suitable break around the outside and burning inwards.
We have fire trails. We have aerial ignition. Precisely what do you think is stopping us? It actually becomes more cost-effective, rather than less, as we increase the size of the blocks burnt.
It is the urban-interface – the very area that you claim we should focus on – that is more complex, difficult and expensive to burn. In rural areas, farmers burn huge areas with minimal gear and manpower.
As for the idea that we should evacuate a million people on every hot day……
40
The foolishness of claiming that we should not manage fuel in remote areas should be apparent by now.
With managed fuel, we have an increased window of opportunity to control fires before they get big and lethal. Permit them to continue burning and they will eventually come out… Usually on a hot day and on a broad from so more people and houses are threatened.
That is exactly what happened in the Canberra fire in 03 and so many in the current season.
Your argument is a prescription for big fires and getting people killed.
40
The ski patrols have an interesting way of heading off avalanches – 50mm air canon used to shoot an explosive shell into the overhang and bring it down before it gets bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-vGogzOw00
Now thats what I call an interesting afternoon….
10
The Canadian version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8HrZiSVgqk
00
No reason why those remote areas can’t be burnt when appropriate using aerial fire starters?
10
Comment on David Wojick by a conspiratist . What if the differences between the green party and Greenpeace in Germany are fully artificial and aimed at keeping as much germans as possible under the different green banners ?
The traditional parties presently ruling Germany are breaking up and falling apart , see the latest election results in Germany . Apart of the official news in the press there exists in Germany a far greater problem which is next to unsolvable : The most important German banks are deep in the red , theoretically completely bankrupt and in much more trouble than anybody imagines . For instance let us take Deutsche Bank . Last december they upped the amount of “troublesome”obligations in their bad bank from 80 to 350 billion euros and given their salami-tactics of the past this most likely represents only half the trouble they are in . How could it come so bad ?
Speculation in financial derivatives that the management did not understand and where the german players were outsmarted by the big american players such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs . Simply put compare it to a backgammon play between a rich and a smart player . The rich player who loses against the smart player doubles the stakes at each game after losing to the smart player . He hopes that luck will balance out his previous losses , but failes to judge properly the superiority of his counterpart , who tricks him any way possible and the losses for the rich guy add and add . Then management intervenes , but they understand even less of the game thats being played and if the smart guy is playing a game counter to Bernie Maddow the disaster is preprogrammed . So now Deutsche Bank is sitting on a massive amount of derivatives with a negative value .
Now Mrs Merkel together with assistent Mrs Vonderleyen is shooting for bailout with the help of the rest of the EU by introducing a european bank-Union where every EU country will participate in absorbing future losses in the banking-sector . This law will be installed undemocratically through the European Council and the local governments are expected to sign this off as a routine-measure of Mutual solidarity . This way she expects to trade out the present mess , but since the green new deal is not very popular wich the electorate this will only aggrevate the downfall of the present political class . In this respect new political horizons are being plotted taking advantage of the dissatisfaction of the german population . Let us see how this will play out and Boris Johnson may be glad the Uk is no longer part of this mess .
50
Here the Roman poet Juvenal displays his contempt for his fellow citizens who are only interested in bread and circuses, much like most Australians. The bread refers to the grain dole initiated by Roman politicians in order to purchase the votes of the poor.
[…] iam pridem, ex quo suffragia nulli / uendimus, effudit curas; nam qui dabat olim / imperium, fasces, legiones, omnia, nunc se / continet atque duas tantum res anxius optat, / panem et circenses. […]
… Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses.
60
Tony Heller’s latest comments on the anthropogenic global warming scam. Australia mentioned.
https://youtu.be/jMrV9qnmeeg
60
If you wonder why Greens and their Labor allies mostly don’t care about the bushfires it’s because they mainly believe in a) depopulation of earth to about 500 million people and b) “rewilding” whereby land formerly used for the benefit of people returns to nature.
50
The Greens care more about animal life than about human life. Just as in the case of Nazi Germany they Greens have no problem with cruelty to humans except for themselves of course. After all they consider themselves to be superior. Hitler took a number of measures to ensure animals were protected. Many Nazi leaders, including Hitler and Goring, were supporters of animal rights and conservation.
51
This is a note to Graeme#4 regarding rooftop solar output.
During 2019 my 3kW grid connected rooftop system produced 3043kWh to 7pm on 31 Dec. In 2018 the system produced 3042kWh. I did not record the time in 2018 but probably earlier than 7pm as it needs to be read before the sun sets and system turns off. Essentially the same output for each of the last two years.
Average daily full sunlight is 2.8 hours.
00
Thanks Rick. Noted and I’ll add your comments to a file I’m keeping on my yet-to-be-installed solar system. (There’s a shortage of Fronius Inverters right now, so my installation has been delayed. The knock-on effect of this is that I’ll now pay more for electricity this summer, and the government rebate has decreased by $300.)
Will monitor the performance of my system over the first few years and report back.
20
Graeme#4
a few days back now, in a Thread now well down the list, and long after everyone had moved on to the new Threads, you asked me this:
Okay then, go to this link.
A word of caution first. This is a site set up by warmists to push their renewables barrow, but as with every site that lists data, it’s a two edged sword, and that data can be accessed ….. and explained, by others who have more of a clue than the average renewables supporter looking for (clueless) confirmation of their belief structure.
The data is very useful on a number of levels, and is misleading on others, and perhaps the most misleading of all is the cost structures you see at the far right upper data collection. I can find nowhere where those cost structures they list are supported, as they do not correlate with the information at the AEMO site, and I have no idea how they can break them down individually for the sources they list.
All that aside, there is a wealth of information to be gained from what you see there, and it’s a site that will take a long time to work your way around so you can find what you are ….. ‘really’ looking for.
That information is (relatively) accurate, and in fact, when I found this site, and actually started to understand it, and it took a while, so you can see the problems a layman might have understanding it if it took me a while. The data here correlates well with the other three sites I use, and when I found this one, I used it to verify (again) all the work I have been doing over the last almost four years now of data collection on a number of levels. What I found was that when comparing what I was doing to the data shown here, my work was accurate to within 0.01%, so that pleased me no end. The only area where it did not agree was with rooftop solar power, and here, it looks like they are (pretty much grossly in fact) overstating it, and I can understand that, as none of the those three sites I use has the same data for rooftop solar power, while all other data is within 0.5% (or less) accuracy when comparing the data from all three sites. I am of the opinion that all rooftop solar data is pretty much guess work. It’s close, but each site has different data for just rooftop solar power, and again, that’s understandable as ALL of it is ‘behind the meter’, so they cannot get any accuracy on that rooftop solar.
Okay then, in answer to your question, you are at the site and at the ‘default’ opening image, showing the load curves for power from all sources for the last seven days. At the very far right of the load curves image is the current time, right now.
Now, at the top left, see the Tab which is titled NEM. Click on that, and when the drop down menu shows, click on South Australia, and the same seven day load curves open up for SA, and note how different they look to the earlier ones.
Directly under that is a bar, and highlighted on that bar (now) is 7D (the last seven days) and at the smaller bar to the right of that one 30m. (30 minute intervals)
Now, on that larger bar, click on 1Y (the last year to the most current date) and the smaller tab at right shows week, so on that tab, click on day.
You now see the daily totals for each source in SA for the last year, well close enough anyway, with just two days missing.
A the upper right above the data figures, you see the days listed (and this is right now today Sunday 05Jan 2020) from 6Jan2019 to 4Jan2020.
As to your specific question, exports versus imports, you can see that listed in the data figures below. These are listed in GWH. (GigaWattHours)
Imports – 643GWH – 4.6%
Exports – 1535GWH – 11.1%
Imports cost almost double that for exports, but hey, I mentioned above that costings here are questionable anyway.
Hope this helps.
Tony.
60
Okay then, here’s a general interest point for all of you.
While you have all followed the prompts on what to do here, now, while that screen is open.
Click on the States menu tab again and then click NEM, the overall data for the five States coverage shown here, everywhere East of the WA border, the whole of Australia covered by this AEMO data.
See the tab under that. Click on 1D, and when that image opens, that is the last 24 hours of power generation from every source. The most recent (current) time is at the far right of the load curve shown there.
The colours shown are what is listed in the data set at right with the colours for each source in the small squares alongside each.
Black coal is, well, the black colour, and brown coal is, umm, brown!
Okay hover your mouse over the load curve image, anywhere and a vertical line shows, and where that is, (where your mouse is) indicates the time at that vertical line point.
Find the point in the day when there is the lowest power consumption, and it’s around that 4AM point in time as it always is, and on this day, it’s at 3.55AM, and when you hover it at that point, click the mouse again, and it is locked at that time point.
Look at the data set at right and the very top bolded figure shows 18331MW, so that’s the total power being consumed in those five States at that exact time, the low point for the day. That’s 18000MW PLUS while all of us were sound asleep in bed.
Now look down the data set of figures for total contribution from each source at that time.
Both coal fired sources, black coal and brown coal total in at 80.7%
The total coal fired component for that time is 14560MW, and while the percentages change across the day, you can see that coal fired power rises to a daily total around 6PM most days, and here, last evening Saturday, that total was just on 19000MW, so on a daily basis, coal fired power ramps up and down across the load curve around 5000MW day in day out, every day.
Coal fired power won’t be replaced any time soon let me tell you.
In fact even with the shutdown of coal fired plants over the last five years or so, coal fired power is still delivering around the same as it always was with those extra coal fired plants in operation.
Tony.
110
Thanks Tony. Starting to look at the site now.
00
RickWill:
So then, that’s a Capacity Factor for the year of 11.6%
Tony.
50
It remains my best single investment in retirement. Most of the 3043kWh was sent out at 66c/kWh. The system paid for itself by 2015. The $1800 income from electricity sales this year means I end the year $250 in surplus on household energy overall. My gas bill dropped dramatically with the installation of a wood burner in June. That surplus should continue to build each year now until the premium FIT ends in 2024.
My off grid battery system continues to perform well although we had one of those 1/1000 days this year when the battery went to the cut-off voltage and I had to shift the load to grid power. That is the second time in 8 years that the battery has dropped to cut-out level.
The Victorian solar rebate has now dropped to $1888 for a 6kW system this year meaning new systems will take a bit longer to pay back.
00
RickWill,
and therein lies the reason these systems should be installed by those willing to take advantage of them, the economic reason only, the personal gain to be made from it, by those who can afford the up front outlay, because as a power source, your data shows they are poorly performing. I can bet those ‘real World’ figures you have supplied are not the ones quoted by installers to wide eyed
suckersfuture system purchasers.While you receive that 66 cents per KWH exported, it will always be a good economic option. Pity it’s at the expense of every consumer who cannot afford to have rooftop solar, or are renters, or apartment or unit dwellers, or in the lower socio economic classes, who pay an increased cost for their electricity from the grid.
I wonder how many of the (now) millions of people who have these rooftop systems will actually stay in their home with panels for the life of the system.
If every rooftop system purchaser was forced to install batteries and go wholly off the grid, that would show the true worth of them, but that will never be allowed to happen, because the cost would be so prohibitive no one would bother, and installers would bleat to regulators like crazy.
The fact that they are nearly all grid connected shows conclusively that people are not willing to really stand up and say they are doing it for the sake of ‘the environment’.
Tony.
50
Tony, my calculations showed that if I can obtain a power bill (Currently around $1750/yr) reduction of $680/yr, then I can pay off a 5 kW system in 10 years.
When installed, I will be tracking this over the next few years.
00
Rooftop solar provides a means for those owning a roof to stick it up the grid scale intermittents. In the era of the RET it is an effective way for households to lower their energy costs. Every rooftop connected lowers the income of grid scale intermittents and reduces the electricity cost for all consumers.
Granted, if there was no RET then power costs would be lower but there is zero chance the RET will be removed before 2030 and every chance it will be increased. I see little prospect of another coal fired power station ever being built in Australia.
I am well aware of the reasons that my system produces lower than ideal. The panels are not optimally aligned and I accept shading from trees as that reduces the summer heat load on the house. Array alignment reduces sunlight by about 30 minutes a day on average and shading about 40 minutes a day on average.
The off grid system has three 1kW arrays arranged to give good winter output; making use of sunlight low over the horizon throughout the day. From the battery perspective it is beneficial to get early morning sunlight. The panels operate at about 4% capacity factor and that is near optimum considering the relative cost of panels and battery.
00
It was pointed out that the 24-hour energy curve for a rooftop solar system approximated a half sine wave. So if we use the calculation for a half sine wave, then for a 3 kW system, the average daily power is: 3 x 0.5 x 0.637 = 1 kW. So the theoretical maximum CF you can expect is 33%.
10
CF of 33% might be possible for a fixed array in the Atacama Desert but nowhere in Australia. Port Hedland probably the best in Australia at 28% CF.
In my location the average full sunshine is 4 hours per day (14.4MJ/sq.m):
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=203&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=086299
This chart gives an indication of what is possible for different locations with fixed and tracking arrays:
https://www.rpc.com.au/pdf/Solar_Radiation_Figures.pdf
A tracking array at Port Hedland would be expected to get CF of 40%. The tracking arrays in Queensland do well when they are not being curtailed. They have almost constant output from 9am to 3pm.
It is worthwhile getting the BoM data for your location so you can assess how your system performs against its rating. Systems are rated at insolation of 1000W/sq.m at 25C. My 3kW systems gets over 3.3kW on a cool summer day when the sun is at its peak for the system arrays (around 2pm AEST) and sunlight breaks from a cloud. Most inverters hold its daily maximum so something that is easily checked.
00
Very interesting – thanks Rick. Have looked at the solar data for Perth. My array also won’t be optimum as I don’t have much north-facing roof area, so the panels will be installed on the east and west roof areas. No tree obstructions though.
00
Imagine how much worse the bushfires would be if SA didn’t blow up its coal fired power station?
40
Anyone inclined to send a message of encouragement to POTUS Trump could try this site:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/
I have sent a message of support for his actions in taking US out of Paris accord and asked if he would have a chat to the Australian PM to give him a nudge in the right direction regarding the climate religion.
80
Yes, we should all write and ask he lean on ScoMo to get out of Paris.
40
Do you think that Australia is one of the hottest countries in the world?
If you do, then you are very wrong
I have the hottest month temperature data for 216 countries
What do you think Australia’s rank is, from 1 to 216
1 being the hottest, and 216 being the coolest
==== answer below here ====
Australia is ranked 125 out of 216, for the hottest month
So Australia is in the cooler half of the hottest countries
If you don’t believe me, here is a list of all the countries whose hottest month is hotter than Australia’s hottest month
All temperatures in degrees Celsius
Rank Hottest-Month Country
125 30.1 Australia
124 30.1 Tanzania
123 30.1 Gabon
122 30.1 Fiji
121 30.2 Tajikistan
120 30.2 Angola
119 30.2 Argentina
118 30.3 China
117 30.3 Saint Lucia
116 30.3 Papua New Guinea
115 30.4 Martinique
114 30.4 Morocco
113 30.4 Guam
112 30.4 Congo
111 30.5 Solomon Islands
110 30.5 United States of America
109 30.5 El Salvador
108 30.5 Nicaragua
107 30.5 Greece
106 30.6 Wallis and Futuna
105 30.6 Kiribati
104 30.6 Northern Mariana Islands
103 30.7 Cayman Islands
102 30.7 Azerbaijan
101 30.7 Trinidad and Tobago
100 30.8 Venezuela
99 30.8 Turkey
98 30.8 Taiwan
97 30.9 Equatorial Guinea
96 30.9 American Samoa
95 31.0 DR Congo
94 31.0 Haiti
93 31.0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
92 31.0 Bahamas
91 31.0 Mayotte
90 31.0 Turks and Caicos
89 31.0 Nauru
88 31.0 Anguilla
87 31.0 Curaçao
86 31.0 Aruba
85 31.0 Malta
84 31.0 Singapore
83 31.1 British Virgin Islands
82 31.1 Saint Kitts and Nevis
81 31.1 Puerto Rico
80 31.1 Costa Rica
79 31.1 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
78 31.1 Seychelles
77 31.1 Honduras
76 31.2 Armenia
75 31.2 Palau
74 31.2 Cuba
73 31.2 Micronesia
72 31.3 Jamaica
71 31.3 Guadeloupe
70 31.3 French Guiana
69 31.4 Sri Lanka
68 31.4 Maldives
67 31.4 Indonesia
66 31.4 Panama
65 31.5 Malaysia
64 31.5 Belize
63 31.5 Suriname
62 31.5 Brunei
61 31.6 U.S. Virgin Islands
60 31.6 Liberia
59 31.6 Ghana
58 31.7 Cameroon
57 31.7 Guyana
56 31.8 Zambia
55 31.8 Cyprus
54 31.9 Mozambique
53 32.0 East Timor
52 32.2 Philippines
51 32.3 Vietnam
50 32.4 Mexico
49 32.5 Israel
48 32.5 Paraguay
47 32.5 Tunisia
46 32.8 Botswana
45 32.8 Cote d’Ivoire
44 32.9 Jordan
43 32.9 Guinea
42 32.9 Sierra Leone
41 33.2 Brazil
40 33.3 Laos
39 33.3 Libya
38 33.3 Bangladesh
37 33.6 Yemen
36 33.8 Guinea-Bissau
35 34.4 Togo
34 34.4 Somalia
33 34.4 Algeria
32 34.5 Cambodia
31 34.6 Myanmar
30 34.6 Uzbekistan
29 34.7 Central African Republic
28 34.7 Egypt
27 34.7 Thailand
26 34.8 Eritrea
25 34.8 Nigeria
24 35.0 Benin
23 35.2 Syria
22 35.3 Afghanistan
21 35.6 Iran
20 36.1 Senegal
19 36.3 India
18 36.3 Turkmenistan
17 37.0 South Sudan
16 37.4 Bahrain
15 37.4 Djibouti
14 37.7 Oman
13 37.7 Gambia
12 38.0 Burkina Faso
11 38.3 Saudi Arabia
10 38.7 Mauritania
9 38.8 Mali
8 39.3 Pakistan
7 39.6 Niger
6 39.9 Sudan
5 40.4 Qatar
4 40.5 Chad
3 40.6 United Arab Emirates
2 42.2 Iraq
1 44.5 Kuwait
Australia’s hottest month is 30.1 degrees Celsius
80
An interesting comparison.
Such “temperature” records though obviously need some interpreting.
Are these figures based on the hottest station for each country or some sort of average?
Whichever, they are of a political construct more than a scientific assessment, and that’s what it’s all about.
🙂
50
.
Keith
You have made a good point.
These are the hottest month temperatures, for many locations, averaged by country.
When I say the hottest month temperature, I mean the Average Daily High for the Hottest Month.
Australia is a big country, and includes parts which are hotter, and parts which are cooler.
I have made some coloured maps, which are based on 5 x 5 latitude-longitude cells, rather than by country.
You can see the Average Daily High for the Hottest Month, for every 5 x 5 latitude-longitude cell, here:
https://agree-to-disagree.com/rats-average-daily-high-for-the-hottest-month
If you are interested, you can also see the Winter-Summer Temperature Difference for every 5 x 5 latitude-longitude cell, here:
https://agree-to-disagree.com/rats-winter-summer-temperature-difference
40
Yeah, but where was the hottest place on earth on Saturday 4th Jan 2020:
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/sydney-s-penrith-the-hottest-place-on-earth-amid-devastating-bushfires
30
In the depths of a sttong northern hemisphere winter bring the hottest place on Earth isnt exactly a big deal. Its been hotter on the driveway of my old place in Melbourne. I didnt even get a plaque.
70
The hottest place in Victoria is Bacchus Marsh………its near Melton…. 🙁
61
If you like his work, he is here all week folks
20
The problem for Western Sydney is the heat island effect which presents higher air temperatures than rural proximities. From a study on the Sydney water website, the difference is often 3-4 °C, but higher peak differences can reach 10 °C. One impact is that while the sea breeze can cool Eastern Sydney the local heat island effect prevents it from reaching the western suburbs. So air conditioners run at maximum, pumping out blistering hot air which exacerbates the heat island impact. As economists and politicians continue in their determination to increase the size of our major cities the problem will get worse.
50
I dare you to go live for a Summer in Roebourne, or Mt Tom Price in WA, and see if you still think that list gives you realistic useful comparative insight about how hot it gets in Australia. A list that compares tiny Kuwait to a continent the size of Australia, where it spans the latitudes from 10 deg south to 43 deg south? Useless. Try comparing Kuwait to an equivalent area of the dry interior of the Pilbara.
Plus this list ignores the effects of humidity when you compare a Mediterranean or maritime tropical climate to that of a tropical desert terrain, with a ground surface made out of iron ore.
A national hottest month being 30.1 C is a thoroughly useless number. There were glaciers in Tasmania 25 k years ago, but there were none anywhere else in Australia. There was snow in SW Tasmania ~12 days ago, but there was none anywhere else in Australia. Hottest month temp data may be meaningful for comparing the weather at single points, or between limited area cities, but it’s meaningless for comparing a continent to a micro-state that covers 2.3 degrees of latitude.
The only location on earth of comparable area which rivals Australia for interior heat are the central Arabs States within the Middle East.
20
Nowadays the Circuses part is supplied by 24 Hr. Sportsball & Porn, the Bread part is more
sophisticated.
As with the Roman Empire, Control is key. In Australia that’s provided by Compulsory
Superannuation’s huge investments in Renewable Energy keeping the Proles cowed but hopeful.
30
Not since Reagan have scumbags of the world respected America. Iran released US hostages within about 15 mins of Reagan being sworn in after kidnapping them for 444 days and also, Gaddafi behaved himself after Reagan bombed him.
Now Trump is the leader these vermin will respect whether they like it or not.
90
They will fear being executed.
Fear is always a good motivator !
Even in Iran
00
It was called October Surprise.
The Iranian Leadership was paid off to hold on to the hostages to make President Carter look ineffectual.
It worked
The Yanks then supplied Iran with weapons to fight a war with Iraq.
That part is called Iran Contra.
11
Interesting article in The Age the other day pitching for more ABC funding as they are just so important to bushfire communications.
While I agree the can have an important role they could actually use their budget in smarter ways. I dont really see the point of sending a bevy of Scoop McTavishes out to report breathlessly from the fireground what has just been said in the studio and the last press conference. Talent, crew and comms all cost money to send out just to provide ambiance and chase emotive “how do you feel” interviews. The core business should be timely info to affected communities.
At least they have stopped reporting in pristine fire fighters outfits. Small mercies i guess.
50
A year ago I was listening to ABC talkback actually giving themselves big pats on the back for their great importance of getting emergency information to the public and how well they do it, yes it was sickening.
Forward to now and locals in rural areas say how useless the ABC alerts and reporting is because of the slow response times vs real time changes, they rely on the old CB radio, phones (when working) or word of mouth.
This performance of our public broadcaster highlights the rot set in an organisation so overpaid and unchecked they believe their own bu$$shit.
30
A year ago I was listening to ABC talkback actually giving themselves big pats on the back for their great importance of getting emergency information to the public and how well they do it, yes it was sickening.
Forward to now and locals in rural areas say how useless the ABC alerts and reporting is because of the slow response times vs real time changes, they rely on the old CB radio, phones (when working) or word of mouth.
This performance of our public broadcaster highlights the rot set in an organisation so overpaid and unchecked they believe their own BS.
20
ABC regional may be reading this Blog , was up the shed listening to the latest and it was pretty much nothing but warnings and advice and all the information that we need without the green leftist opinions on climate change .
Although they did have a couple of swipes at Scomo .
10
Scomo can’t catch a break , apparently his big announcement yesterday failed to get to the ears of the NSW fire commissioner although the Premier was told of the Army reserve plan .
And now the ABC go ballistic on lack of consultation, if Scomo talks to the premier it’s up to the premier to inform whoever needs to know down the chain .
The ABC and other MSM are on a concerted campaign of faux outrage and constant criticism because he won the election and Shorten didn’t .
150
Not the State Fire Commissioner, the State Rural Fire Services Commissioner is complaining.
But I doubt his sincerity, the Prime Minister would not brief him, he would contact the Premier and she would brief emergency services heads.
No doubt about the feral media attack and smear, or the ferals at ABC who join in.
60
If Shorten had fouled up, they would be making excuses for him….
The left are a pack of jackals….
10
Gnashing their teeth there is no impeachment option here in Australia I’ll wager.
30
The State Rescue Board of NSW
The State Emergency and Rescue Management Act 1989 (SERM Act) provides for the establishment of the State Rescue Board of NSW with a structure and system for the management of rescue at local and regional level.
The principal function of the State Rescue Board is to ensure the efficient and effective maintenance of rescue services throughout NSW. The State Rescue Board carries out its responsibilities through the heads of the agencies that provide accredited rescue units and through the NSW Police Force, which is responsible for the coordination of rescue operations within NSW.
The State Rescue Board is, in the exercise of its functions, subject to the control and direction of the Minister for Emergency Services.
State Rescue Board Membership
Section 43 (1) of the SERM Act provides that the Board is to consist of not less than eight members, being:
the State Emergency Operations Controller
the Commissioner of the State Emergency Service
a member of the NSW Police Force Senior Executive Service nominated by the Commissioner of Police
the Commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW
the Commissioner of the NSW Rural Fire Service
the Chief Executive of the Ambulance Service NSW
the Commissioner of the NSW Volunteer Rescue Association Inc.
the Commissioner of Volunteer Marine Rescue NSW
the heads of any other volunteer rescue agencies approved for the time being by the Minister.
Section 43 (2) of the SERM Act provides that one of the members of the Board is to be appointed as Chairperson by the Minister.
20
Australian Brainwashing Corporation
hard at work with it’s propaganda machine
And we are paying for them
To write & spread this sh#t as well !
10
ABC – like most of the FakeNewsMSM – is determined to keep the focus on personal, politically partisan attacks, not hazard reduction:
***Packham interview begins 1h08m20s to 1h56m02s.
best to listen from 1h in for Martin in Bilpin, & his run-in with bureaucracy. he ends with explanation how hazard reduction can be done 12 months of the year, with tractors, bulldozers, etc. it doesn’t have to only be done with fire.
AUDIO: 3 Jan: 2GB: Jane Marwick interview ***David Packham
https://www.2gb.com/podcast/nights-with-jane-marwick-friday-3rd-december/
read all:
8 Feb Updated 9 Feb 2017: ABC: Life after Black Saturday: ‘Victoria’s never been in a more dangerous situation’
By Jane Cowan
In part two of Jane Cowan’s seven-part series revisiting some of the people touched by Victoria’s devastating Black Saturday bushfires, she speaks to scientist David Packham, who fears the state is more vulnerable to a bushfire tragedy than ever before.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-08/life-after-black-saturday-david-packham-bushfire-scientist/8248666
26 Oct 2013: Herald Sun: Andrew Bolt: ABC interviews a sceptic for 35 minutes on the fires and rejects all but 69 words
Liberal Senator Christopher Back was CEO of the Bush Fires Board of Western Australia and says bushfires are best prevented not with a carbon tax but a fuel-reduction burn: QUOTE
But here is what happened to top bushfire researcher David Packham when he tried to say this to the ABC’s 7:30:
“Bushfire expert David Packham tried to tell 7.30 we had to burn our bush every 10 years to cut the leaf litter that turns our fires into infernos, a level of burning NSW doesn’t come close to reaching. But after just 69 words, 7.30 handed back his microphone to chatterers whose living depends on the warming scare – two green activists and a scientist from Climate System Science.”
Packham has told me what actually happened:
“Briefly, at 7.30 request I came into Melbourne a three hour drive and spent 50 minutes with the 7.30 folk. I estimate about 35 minutes was in interview. I was asked to confirm that the fires in NSW were unprecedented in being so early in the season. I said no, they were not and offered information from Luke and Mc Arthur “Bushfires in Australia -1976” (Aust Govt Publishing Service) which was not accepted. When the question was put as to the role of global warming, again I said “not involved”. That was not an acceptable answer and it was clear that it did not fit with the predetermined agenda. My sadness at the termination of my life-long love of the ABC because of this very unethical journalism – at least of the news division – is not only sadness but also a touch of fear for our democracy.”
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/abc-interviews–a-sceptic-for-35-minutes-on-the-fires-and-rejects-all-but-69-words/news-story/4fa5981e575c6f2ad48806aa61d3340d
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12 Mar 2015: Age: Bushfire scientist David Packham warns of huge blaze threat, urges increase in fuel reduction burns
By Darren Gray
Forest fuel levels have worsened over the past 30 years because of “misguided green ideology”, vested interests, political failure and mismanagement, creating a massive bushfire threat, a former CSIRO bushfire scientist has warned.
Victoria’s “failed fire management policy” is an increasing threat to human life, water supplies, property and the forest environment, David Packham said in a submission to the state’s Inspector-General for Emergency Management.
And he argued that unless the annual fuel reduction burning target, currently at a minimum of 5 per cent of public land, “is doubled or preferably tripled, a massive bushfire disaster will occur. The forest and alpine environment will decay and be damaged possibly beyond repair and homes and people [will be] incinerated.”…READ ALL
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/bushfire-scientist-david-packham-warns-of-huge-blaze-threat-urges-increase-in-fuel-reduction-burns-20150312-14259h.html
40
A case where their experts on climate change trump the real experts on commonsense fire management because of a green leftist ideology.
10
I can’t believe this; I presume Pat has already posted it :-
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/118592515/the-world-has-made-the-link-between-australian-coal-fires-and-climate
30
The climate gang are on the attack, the gravy train is at risk …
“This summer, Australia has been clobbered by the immediate practical reality of climate change. A similarly violent collision with economic and political realities now faces leaders of both parties and their friends in the coal industry.
– Nick O’Malley is a senior writer at the Sydney Morning Herald”
30
the writer, Nick O’Malley (SMH) tweeted 2h ago –
‘Extraordinary opinion piece(sic) from this firefighter who is tired of hearing that hazard reduction was not done. “Pray for rain, pray harder for leadership.”‘
15 Nov: ArmidaleExpress: Wytaliba had been back burning before fatal fire
by Badja Sparks
Over the last three years, in co-operation with NSW Forestry, National Parks and the RFS, we have had very extensive controlled burning in the state forest and national park on our perimeter…
Everything that should be done, was done and lots more…
There was no fuel on the ground, it was already burned.
The heat ahead of the fire front ignited nearly everything in its path.
Before he saw any flame my neighbor’s car exploded. They just escaped with their lives…see live footage on Monday’s ABC 7.30…
Wytaliba has lost two lives and more than half our homes, our school, our bridge our wildlife and 40 years of work to build a community. What was our paradise is now ash…
“Today’s not the day to talk about climate change”…..No, yesterday was the day, or the day before, or the month before, or the year before,….but it didn’t get a mention.
Now we have the reality and the mention it gets is, “don’t talk about it now”.
So, the politicians (and the media) turn the talk to hazard reduction burns, or the lack of them, as something else to blame on the inner-city raving lunatics.
This is climate changed. We’re in the worst drought recorded. A million hectares of bush has burned. Barnaby says it’s Green voters and the sun’s magnetic field.
Pray for rain, pray harder for leadership.
Badja Sparks is a longtime resident of Wytaliba. His home was badly damaged in Friday’s fires.
https://www.armidaleexpress.com.au/story/6494023/opinion-we-did-burnoffs-badja-sparks-hits-back/?cs=471
30
Is there nothing it can’t do?
Coal miners to blame for Queensland floods, says Australian Greens leader Bob Brown
“GREENS leader Bob Brown says the coal mining industry should foot the bill for the floods because it helped cause them.”
https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/coal-miners-to-blame-for-queensland-floods-says-australian-greens-leader-bob-brown/news-story/cbfe12042fa9c4149ea3c10524f57344
31
Light rain here at Mt Barker in SA.
And the rain band seems to extend all the way to East Gippsland.
Desperately needed there !
40
Evidence of cold sinking polar stratospheric air falling into the polar and mid-latitude troposphere.
These six annotated images establish that sinking cold lower-stratospheric air does indeed sink into both the Polar-Hadley-Convection-Cell, and the mid-latitude’s Hadley-Convection-Cells. The following detailed temperature map captures have been overlaid with geopotential pressure isobars, at the respective altitudes displayed, plus wind-particle effects to better locate and illustrate the anti-clockwise sinking colder higher-pressure air masses, and their extent within the stratosphere. Windy’s ‘eye-dropper’ sampling tool is used to indicate changes in the temperature of the air column as the altitude changes.
45,000 ft – Temperature – shows sinking stratospheric air:
https://i.ibb.co/jV4wyTx/45-000-ft-Sinking-Stratospheric-Air-Screenshot-2020-01-02-Windy-as-forecasted.jpg
39,000 ft – Temperature – shows sinking stratospheric air:
https://i.ibb.co/QrTVDPg/39-000-ft-Sinking-Stratospheric-Air-Screenshot-2020-01-02-Windy-as-forecasted-1.jpg
34,000 ft – Temperature – shows sinking stratospheric air:
https://i.ibb.co/wNq9qHT/34-000-ft-Sinking-Stratospheric-Air-Screenshot-2020-01-02-Windy-as-forecasted-2.jpg
… continues
50
… continued
30,000 ft – Temperature – shows sinking stratospheric air:
https://i.ibb.co/0jB7wvH/30-000-ft-Sinking-Stratospheric-Air-Screenshot-2020-01-02-Windy-as-forecasted-3.jpg
24,000 ft – Temperature – shows sinking stratospheric air:
https://i.ibb.co/tL9Lrby/24-000-ft-Sinking-Stratospheric-Air-Screenshot-2020-01-02-Windy-as-forecasted-4.jpg
Surface (0 ft AGL) – Pressure – confirms sinking stratospheric air:
https://i.ibb.co/hKV76ST/Presure-At-Surface-Sinking-Stratospheric-Air-Screenshot-2020-01-02-Windy-as-forecasted.jpg
it’s fairly clear from this that the proposed and expected sinking of colder polar stratospheric air is indeed present in the observations and in the models, and it is sinking into and through the tropopause and is seen to be sinking into the troposphere all the way to the surface of the icesheet. It is also entering polar Lows, and the polar and sub-tropical jetstream flows, and has thus been anomalously amplifying and expanding them, during November and December, 2019.
Ends
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Negative Feedback Amplified
Assuming this is normal behaviour, what are the possible weather effects on the ground?
10
The way I see it Gordo this sinking process has probably always occurred to some extent, but it shrank a lot during the post 1980’s warming period, but is now NET expanding once again. I think the weather we see on the ground from it is what we’ve seen each time the sinking has re-expanded again in the past. Over the icesheet this year it’s still forecast to be -38 C at noon, during the middle of Summer. It normally ‘warms’ to around -25 C.
70
Yarp…
The essential functions of the ABC could be covered with a single channel each on Radio and TV. The content could be generated out of just one fairly modest set of studios.
Cost…. about 1% of the current budget.
50
Jeremy Clarkson’s attempt at humour, a lot of people will express outrage, personally it doesn’t worry me, though I haven’t been close to the fires.
“Australia is God’s laboratory and people were not actually meant to live there
I’VE suspected for some time God didn’t want people to live in Australia.
He created it as a continent far, far away where he could house all his experiments that had gone wrong…..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10668071/australia-is-gods-laboratory-and-people-were-not-actually-meant-to-live-there/
40
This was the controversial bit
“Plainly, God is embarrassed. Because he’s decided to set fire to it.
It’s been argued the fires raging across the country were caused by global warming or out-of-control barbies.
But when you look at the footage, you know something biblical is going on.”
40
Sounds a bit crass.
OTOH, he’s ranked global warming alongside out of control barbies, so that’s a backhander.
Since Clarkson has got his rep by mocking authority rather than God, i’d suggest that he’s saying that the fires have been deliberately lit.
10
follow-up re SMH writer, Nick O’Malley (see comment #39 by farmerbraun).
more links from his Twitter page:
3 Jan: Guardian: Tony Abbott, former Australian PM, tells Israeli radio the world is ‘in the grip of a climate cult’
Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation foreign editor says listeners were angry at the airing of ‘extremist views’
by Graham Readfearn
PIC: The former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott told the Israeli public broadcaster ‘carbon dioxide emissions, particularly human carbon dioxide, are not the only, or even the main factor’ in climate change.
The Israeli public broadcaster has come under fire from angry listeners after broadcasting an interview with Tony Abbott in which he said the world was “in the grip of a climate cult”…NOT BOTHERED TO SIGN IN TO READ THE REST
—
Israel has loads of English-language media, yet I can’t find anything about this “outrage” anywhere else, other than in the CAGW-infested UK Independent:
3 Jan: UK Independent: Australia wildfires: Former PM says world ‘in grip of climate cult’, as record temperatures fan deadly flames across country
‘Sooner or later people get hit over the head by reality,’ says Tony Abbott, but 19 now dead in unprecedented crisis
by Colin Drury
The one-time leader of the Liberal Party, who was prime minister from September 2013 to 2015, suggested that reducing carbon emissions should not be a priority for the current government.
“While we still seem to be in the grip of a climate cult, the climate cult is going to produce policy outcomes that will cause people to wake up to themselves,” Mr Abbott said during an interview on Israeli radio.
The 62-year-old, speaking in mid-December, but after wildfires had started, added: “Sooner or later, in the end, people get hit over the head by reality.”…
Record temperatures have occurred regularly over the last three months with the country’s hottest day ever – an average 41.9C – being charted on 18 December.
Current prime minister and Liberal Party leader Scott Morrison has himself been widely criticised during the crisis…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-wildfires-bushfires-latest-tony-abbott-climate-change-scott-morrison-a9268801.html
O’Malley also links to the ULTRA PATHETIC Nick Cohen:
5 Jan: Guardian: Australia’s pathetic PM reveals much about the right’s effort to deny reality
From Scott Morrison to Brexiters, there is a wilful reluctance to address the truth
by Nick Cohen
There are worse leaders than Scott Morrison. The “international community” includes torturers, mass murderers, ethnic cleansers and kleptomaniacs beside whom he seems almost benign. But no leader in the world is more abject than the prime minister of Australia…
Even as Australia burned last week, Tony Abbott, Morrison’s conservative predecessor, was still saying the world was “in the grip of a climate cult”…
The 2019 election was meant to be a climate change election about the killing of the Great Barrier Reef, the extreme drought and average summer temperatures across the continent hitting 40C. Yet Morrison and his campaign team managed to turn it into an election about the Australian Labor party’s tax plans.
So impressed was Boris Johnson that he hired Morrison’s boys to win the British general election…
The Brexit Morrison’s operators helped to sell to the British is, like climate change, an exercise in three-stage denial. First comes the refusal to admit there will be pain. Then a guarded concession that there may be “bumps in the road” and,, you can predict, in a couple of years, when it is too late to save the car factories and science parks, will come admission that Remainers were right, but that doesn’t matter now…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/australias-pathetic-pm-reveals-much-about-the-rights-efforts-to-deny-reality
Twitter: Nick O’Malley, senior writer, Sydney Morning Herald
https://twitter.com/npomalley
30
Did not December in Aus commence with the COLDEST summer day – ever! – recorded? And snow: I remember it snowed on December 1 & 2 & 3…
To quote an ex-Environment Minister of yours:
“Short memory (must have a) whoah, short memory”.
The burnt orange/sienna haze arrived here at 2 pm, by 4 it was dark as dusk, at 7.30 pm it’s still glowing dull orange.
00
And more records !
West Terrace, Adelaide, may have recorded a new record maximum temperature today. That is, the “lowest maximum temperature” at a station that, allegedly (the BOM is a bit inaccurate here), has been operating since 1887. Thus far (6:25 pm), it has reached just 16.2 degrees. The previous record low was 17.1 on 3 January 1970. So The Independent is right: the records continue to fall.
00
One of the positives of this “summer’s” weather in Godzone, for keepers of ovines at least, is the suppression of blowfly reproduction.
And on the back of significantly less rainfall , my farm has remained green and growing.
Cool.
10
Fresh dusting of snow on The Remarkables this morning:
https://www.old.metservice.com/skifields/the-remarkables
(timelapse pics of base area and Wye Saddle/Ridge)
Snow to 1,200 metres
Max 0°C
Min -4°C
Severe S.W. gales.
Records AND snow continue to fall: poor wee millennial kiddies just won’t know what summers were… nor blowflies.
00
forget Occupy Wall Street:
3 Jan: Guardian: Goldman Sachs agreed to stop funding Arctic drilling. Will other banks join them?
If banks destroy our homeland, they’ll have the Gwich’in Nation, and the millions of Americans who stand with us, to answer to
Article supported by 11th Hour Project (***The Schmidt Family Foundation, based in the Bay area, California)
by Bernadette Demientieff (executive director of the Gwich’in Steering Committee)
In all the years I’ve worked to defend this place, we’ve been focused on trying to make our voices heard by leaders in the White House or in Congress, and I never thought I’d be sitting in a conference room on the 43rd floor of Goldman Sachs’ global headquarters in downtown New York, talking about the Arctic refuge.
But times have changed…
In May 2018, we were joined by more than 100 environmental and Indigenous rights groups and a group of institutional investors representing more than $2.5tn in assets in sending letters to oil companies and the banks that fund them urging them not to initiate or support any oil and gas development in the Arctic refuge. Since then, we’ve been taking every opportunity – from speaking out at their public shareholder meetings to sitting down with them one-on-one – to convince them to stand with us.
This week, we saw the result of this effort when Goldman Sachs released an updated energy policy that rules out financing for new oil drilling or exploration in the Arctic and specifically mentions the Arctic refuge.
In doing so, Goldman Sachs joined a growing group of global banks that have ruled out funding for Arctic drilling. More and more, banks are recognizing that investing in a project that would threaten human rights and worsen the climate crisis is an expensive risk that’s not worth taking…
Now, all eyes are on Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/03/goldman-sachs-arctic-drilling-gwichin-banks
Wikipedia: The ***Schmidt Family Foundation is a private foundation created in 2006 by Eric Schmidt, the Executive Chairman of Google, and his wife Wendy Schmidt, to address issues pertaining to sustainability and the responsible use of natural resources…
Schmidt Family Foundation: The 11th Hour Project was founded by Wendy Schmidt in 2005, and operates as part of the foundation. It works to raise awareness about climate change and renewable energy sources, and operates as part of the foundation. The project awards various grants and helped distribute the documentary film An Inconvenient Truth. It also provided initial operating budget for the nonprofit news organization Climate Central…
10
The usurers need to restrict access to energy so that all their ponzi loans will be paid. No mystery there.
10
Thats why usurers love carbon markets but hate increases in royalties. Its because they are vampires and blood-sucking parasites. Its not even a mystery. If they really cared about emissions it would simply be a matter of coal and oil royalties. Get a grip on yourself. Understand what is happening when you are surrounded by thieves.
10
Gergis has reached a tipping point:
3 Jan: Guardian: We are seeing the very worst of our scientific predictions come to pass in these bushfires
As a climate scientist I am wondering if the Earth system has now breached a tipping point
by Joëlle Gergis
(Dr Joëlle Gergis is an award-winning climate scientist and writer based at the Australian National University)
I had goosebumps watching surreal footage of the mass evacuation of people stranded on the south-east Australian coast…
As a climate scientist, the thing that really terrifies me is that weather conditions considered extreme by today’s standards will seem sedate in the future…
To avoid sounding like a broken record, instead I will say that as a lead author on the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report of the global climate due out next year, I can assure you that the planetary situation is extremely dire.
It’s no exaggeration to say my work as scientist now keeps me up at night…
Failing to adequately plan for the known threat of climate change in a country like Australia should now be considered to be an act of treason…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/03/we-are-seeing-the-very-worst-of-our-scientific-predictions-come-to-pass-in-these-bushfires
11
Hypothetically, and at least in part, it keeps me up at night being a self taught native plant scientist. We are at the ultra fast growing weed tipping point. Our children will say, hey mum, dad, why did you allow highly inflammable weeds to infiltrate and take over our native plants that are generally slow growing, many of which are fire retardant and fire resistant? ☀️ 🙂
02
Funny how these names always stick, like Flannery, Karoly and Tunney.
00
“Australia Fires … And Misfires”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/04/australia-fires-and-misses/
00
It would appear that Dr Gergis believes we still respect the position of “lead author of the IPCC anything”. Her comments re-confirm my low opinion of that involvement.
Cheers
Dave B
00
Jetstream Speed Update:
The subtropical jet remains at very elevated speeds in both hemispheres. The polar-jet stream has become less distinct and is seen to combine more readily with the sub-tropical jet, and the result is the jets are longer and dig-down deeper toward the pole, before returning cooler air back towards the tropic line.
At 12 noon yesterday the 5th of January, 2019, a jet of 389 km/h @ 30,000ft, was OBSERVED just SW of Tasmania.
https://i.ibb.co/8NfVdSx/Tasmaina-Record-Jet-30-000-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-04-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png
^
This jet was probably the fastest jetstream observation ever within the southern-hemisphere, and it occurred in early mid summer! So this solidifies the view that a substantial cooling change has occurred in the Earth stratosphere that propagated into the troposphere, during 2019. This record jet’s forecast was originally given within the 10-day ECMWF forecast on the 26th of December 2019. The jet was originally forecast to reach 398 km/h late on the 4th of January 2020. But the actual jet event was ~9 km/h slower, and occurred about 12 hours later. That observational confirmation demonstrates that ECMWF is incredibly accurate at forecasting these anomalous jetstream wind speeds at least 9 days in advance. That is frankly some incredible model accuracy during a 9-day forecast, within an anomalously high-speed meandering jet with varying pressure systems. It’s shocking how good that forecast was, 9 days out.
[Note: edited the wind overlay coding two days ago to show greater details in the highest speed range and to make it easier to spot excess-of-record jets. Thus the dark blue begins immediately above the current US balloon flight record jet-speed (371 km/h) which blue then changes to violet at 400 km/hr and above.]
There’s also a ~400 km/h jet forecast for tomorrow, the 6th Jan 2020, just ENE of Quebec, as seen here.
https://i.ibb.co/DrTLQjt/ENE-of-Quebec-400-kmh-Jet-34-000-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-05-Windy-as-forecasted-2.png
However, there’s a general dip in the jetstream speeds within both hemispheres after the 6th of Jan. The maximum wind speeds dip to about 360 km/h within both hemispheres but this occurs due to different reasons within each hemisphere. The maximum speeds appear to be bouncing back by around the 14th of Jan 2020 though.
Within the northern-hemisphere the speed drop is due to a series of strong upper-level humid vertical-wave disturbances launching over the north-pole from east of Greenland. These disturbances continue, which causes the coldest driest sinking stratospheric air High to displace to over the Bering-Strait and northern Canada region. This wave disturbance is likely to result in a major northern SSW during the next ten days.
Within the southern-hemisphere there’s no significant upper-wave disturbances. Just a general reorganization of the location of the sinking stratospheric Highs.
What this does to both hemispheres is to disrupt the -55C to -65C sinking air at 39,000 ft, down to 30,000 feet, which cold-dry pool of stratospheric air normally sinks into the top of the circum-polar Lows, at the upper and mid-levels, which makes them colder and also bone-dry at their tops. This serves to increase the temperature difference between the bottom of a polar-low and the top of same polar-low, which is what makes the Low grow stronger in its upper and mid-level. And that is what increases the pressure gradient between the polar-Lows and the sub-tropical Highs. Which then serves to increase the speed of the jetstream passing between them, within each hemisphere. Where the coldest sinking stratospheric air enters the top of the Low, the jet in the equatorward 90-degree-wide quadrant from the Low, increases its speed and depth. Thus increases the volume and energy of the sub tropical jetstream flow.
Coincident with this resulting dip in sub-topical jet speeds after the 6th of January, is a proportionate shrinking of their depth and width as well. However, after about the 12th of January it appears that these higher max-speeds begin to rise again.
Thus the southern jetstream which has been (observed) to be ~170 km/h faster than it should be (on the 5th of Jan) during the southern Summer, falls to just ~125 km/h faster than it should be. While the northern jetstream, which has been (observed) to be ~75 km/h faster than it should be (on the 5th of Jan) during the northern Winter falls to ~30 km/h faster than it should be. It may take a month for colder air to build up again in the upper and mid-levels of the mid-latitude Hadley convection-cell, before the jet speeds can rise to 400 km/h again.
What is occurring though is that the strongest and deepest northern-hem jets have been more consistently showing up eastward of the USA-Canada border over the north Atlantic, and just south of Greenland and Iceland. The result of this geography has been that a ‘standing-wave’ of strong upper-level atmospheric disturbance has formed downstream of these land masses as the faster deeper flow passed over the upper icesheet on both Greenland and Iceland. Then it deforms in waves and deflects upward towards the stratosphere, as it approaches the polar circle. Thus the sinking colder dry stratosphere (proper) over the pole, which triggered the record northern-hem jet flow, then triggers wet and warmer mid-troposphere vertical waves which shoot upward to thoroughly disturbs and displace the dry cold sinking stratosphere air columns.
What follows is that this air which has ‘ballistically’ launched from above the north Atlantic up to say 70,000 ft, slows down as it reaches an ‘apogee’, and it becomes deeply chilled, down to -70 C to -80 C, as it also begins to slowly expand (i.e. a High). This causes the air to quickly saturate to 100% humidity, and ice crystals form were condensation occurs.
Then the relatively denser and more ‘humid’ (formerly tropospheric) air at 70,000 ft begins to fall back toward the tropopause within days and it re-enters the tropopause as extremely cold but still relatively ‘humid’ air. This extremely cold air (-75 C is common) can retain almost no moisture. So saying it’s at 100% humidity does not mean it’s dripping-wet as it isn’t. It’s terribly dry – it’s just close to saturation at -75 C, is all (i.e. stuff all water is actually still in it).
But compared to true stratospheric air, it is ‘wet’, but only because a true sinking stratospheric air column’s moisture is almost completely non-existent.
And this is the key to telling the difference between these two forms of sinking stratospheric air. Any sinking air that contains more than 2% relative humidity has surely originated from the troposphere. Thus any sinking air that contains no more than 1% relative humidity, has surely only originated from the stratosphere via a genuine cooling sinking stratospheric air column mechanism.
So once you realize that it becomes very easy to find and identify columns of genuine sinking stratospheric air masses. These do in fact exist and they are especially obvious over Antarctica and are always <1% humidity. The regular vertical tropospheric waves in the northern hemisphere makes such sinking columns less obvious to spot in the northern-hem. The waves add a lot more moisture to the lower-most northern-hem stratosphere. But sinking true stratospheric air is present there regardless, but it moves around more as the vertical waves disrupt it and push it around. It is usually found opposite to where the most vigorous upper vertical waves are occurring.
The troposphere derived wetter wave-air tends to originate over the northern Atlantic and just east of the Urals. This results in the descending columns of stratosphere air (proper) tending to sink over Siberia, the Bering Strait, Alaska and N Canada. Thus these produce the highest jet speeds near E Japan, and the West and East coast of the USA, of late (rather than nearer to E Japan).
Thus each time the cold actual Stratospheric air itself starts to sink a column of air for a few days or a week, Siberia, Canada and the USA all tend to see the worst of it more often. More surface and mid-level cooling and faster jets.
It also implies that any increase in sinking dry Stratospheric air (proper) into the tops of near to polar-circle Lows should tend to increase the jet speeds plus the north-hem vertical wave activity, and thus would lead to more SSWs. And thus to disruption of the sinking stratospheric air (proper) … which triggered the whole sinking cycle to begin with. Thus a greater level of weather variability in the northern hemisphere, within all seasons should result, when the stratosphere air (proper) has begun to sink (which it has).
In the South SSWs are very rare, so there’s almost no humidity in the lower stratosphere, thus little vertical disruption. It’s this which has allowed the jets to become relatively much faster in the southern hemisphere. So although this less disturbed south-hem polar stratosphere produces less variability, and more predictability, that’s only because the sinking true dry stratospheric air effects can develop for longer before being interrupted or changing location much.
But, the resulting much higher expanded depth of the southern jet should in turn lead to a greater propensity for major SSWs to occur within the Southern hemisphere as they get faster (inducing wave disturbances in the south). This is because the faster speed and higher volume and energy of the flow over New Zealand Alps, South American Andes, and the ‘West’ Antarctic terrain, should lead to stronger upper-level waves, which can fire wet mid-tropospheric southern ocean air well into the stratosphere. In that context, the prior Antarctic SSW during late August, would be a symptom of this prior phase of stratospheric air cooling, and its sinking. Thus if stratospheric air proper is sinking (it is, as I have the observations at this point) then this should also result in Antarctic SSW’s tending to occur more often. And these would tend to increase for so long as the colder air is being added to the tops of the polar lows, and thus amplifying the Jetstream flow speed … which produces more upper vertical waves.
60
Here’s the Tasmanian jet’s ECMWF model run forecast from the 26th of Dec (it predicted this for the 4th of Jan), and then the observation of that jet on the 4th of Jan (at noon yesterday) – 9 days later. Compare the intensity, the location and the timing.
AS MODELLED
26th December, 2019 – this jet was originally forecast to reach 398 km/h late on the 4th of January, 2020.
https://i.ibb.co/yXsmrHv/34-k-ft-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted-7.png
AS OBSERVED
5th of January, 2019 – 12 noon, the jet reached 389 km/h @ 30,000ft, just SW of Tasmania.
https://i.ibb.co/8NfVdSx/Tasmaina-Record-Jet-30-000-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-04-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png
–
The main difference is that the jet was stronger at 30,000 ft, rather than at the predicted 34,000 ft. But the lower-level higher jet speed is a characteristic feature of the faster than record accelerated jets seen this Summer. Thus ECMWF has provided an excellent jetstream forecast tool.
60
I don’t want to discourage this excellent reportage. But I will just say …………
“Thus the sinking colder dry stratosphere (proper) over the pole, which triggered the record northern-hem jet flow, then triggers wet and warmer mid-troposphere vertical waves which shoot upward to thoroughly disturbs and displace the dry cold sinking stratosphere air columns.”
……… It all seems so magical. When you make any possible energy source tapu. Happens as if by magic. Quick look the other way. No energy source to see here. I should like to make a commercial fan based around this implied voodoo.
08
Downvoted? Come on guys get a grip. Zero tolerance towards fantasy physics. You are a little bit too old now to be believing in unicorns.
09
Doesn’t matter how good the scientist is and how righteous are his conservative credentials. No good can come from accepting fantasy physics. Thats just cutting ourselves off at the kneecaps when facing the fantasy physics of the leftists. These ought to be friendly amendments but they have to be persistent when the scientists are recalcitrant and irrational.
09
I don’t get it. What are you actually refuting?
The observations?
I’m interested in this because it seems to be about weather and seasons. Those phenomena are critical aspects of the environment for farmers like myself.
Any leads as to what the rest of “summer” will be like in Australasia, and the reasons, are of great interest.
And not just to cockies.
So please, just argue against it – we’ll all learn something.
10
I’m interested in his work too. Its the most interesting stuff presented here. Joanne is very lucky to have him contributing to her blog. Its wonderful stuff. The observations and correlations seem superb. The predictive model he can make from these correlations is excellent. But he’s denying the root source of the energy. Which is electrical capacitance buildup in the stratosphere, and the way that this buildup then has to work its way down to the deep earth.
You cannot get cooling settling slow moving air to accelerate thicker, already fast-moving air at a lower level. That would be like opening my top freezer and producing a whirlwind in my kitchen. The air is settling and cooling as it passes on its excess charge to the jet-stream. Or thats what we would assume. We are talking about an altitude where the electrical buildup is so strong it allows the conversion of nitrogen to carbon 14.
If you go through his descriptions it sticks out like a sore thumb that the effects he is witnessing are just the way the electrical buildup from the solar wind, and other sources of electrical buildup, are working their way down the atmosphere and driving weather events as they do so. But he reckons no its all from electro-magnetic radiation. Consider the implausibility of this over the Antarctic poles? For starters the dry air is virtually transparent to this radiation. And there is not much of it and these effects will still be there in the Antarctic winter to a greater or lesser degree.
Most of the people here were doubting him because they cannot imagine the stratospheric tail wagging the tropospheric tail the way he describes it. But in view of the reality of the voltage difference between the ionosphere and the deep earth, and the way this must work itself out, then it all makes perfect sense.
23
…. the stratospheric tail wagging the tropospheric dog… I meant to say.
10
Graeme, I haven’t been regular here for a while. Life you know.
I always enjoyed your best stuff back in the day. But your worst stuff was way over the top. WAY over the top.
Personally when i read that you were back I thought it could be a bit refreshing. I like a bit edgy you know.
However, after seeing recent comments, WXcycles is not receptive to the electric universe of things (EUoT).
Why do you pick that scab? Talk about it but don’t make a personal issue!
Good to see and read your best stuff again
30
Sure. Well I started with flaming. Down to light-hearted teasing. I think I’d just throw in a tiny reminder now and then. Last thing I want is to discourage him from reporting his fascinating findings here. They are just the cats pajamas. One of the highlights of coming here. Remember the Alan Siddons finding that the moon was 40 degrees hotter than it was supposed to be from light alone? That was a while back now and I don’t know if there has been any update since then. But really does show a secondary energy source.
12
I can’t quarrel with the notion of additional as yet unknown sources of energy. One of my very clear understandings is the incorrect notion that climate processes are “well understood” It is a complete lie.
00
Swales in the desert. Much more powerful than you would think. These ones put in, then neglected for almost 90 years. Walk just a few metres and you are in completely dry desert. If you think that our current fiat-ponzi Cato-Institute version, of the free market, is working powerfully well, then this simply will not compute. You will say …. “If they work so well then why haven’t they been installed everywhere.”
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/x_AgIBnKOQc/maxresdefault.jpg
13
Here is a short video version of the Tuscon swales.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_AgIBnKOQc
When trying to reverse-engineer how they could be so effective, start thinking about plant root exudates, fungal networks turning carbs into water and sourcing water from deeper down, overnight dew and condensation, once in a blue moon heavy rains, this sort of thing. You need a slight slope to make it work well. Trees frequent enough to maintain a fungal network. Its really about directing water underneath the soil where it moves very slowly but cannot evaporate unless through transpiration. Seems to work much better than any mental extrapolation of how one thinks it should work.
12
just up on The Guardian, read all:
5 Jan: Guardian: Explainer: how effective is bushfire hazard reduction on Australia’s fires?
Claims of a Greens conspiracy to block hazard reduction has been rejected by bushfire experts
by Graham Readfearn
Prof ***David Bowman, the director of the fire centre research hub at the University of Tasmania, said: “It’s ridiculous. To frame this as an issue of hazard reduction in national parks is just lazy political rhetoric.”…
Prof ***Ross Bradstock, the director of the centre for environmental risk management of bushfires at the University of Wollongong, has previously told Guardian Australia: “These are very tired and very old conspiracy theories that get a run after most major fires. They’ve been extensively dealt with in many inquiries.”…
A former NSW fire and rescue commissioner, Greg Mullins, has written that the hotter and drier conditions, and the higher fire danger ratings, were preventing agencies from carrying out prescribed burning…
The 2019-20 bushfire crisis coincided with Australia’s hottest year on record…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/05/explainer-how-effective-is-bushfire-hazard-reduction-on-australias-fires
more to come.
10
found the Readfearn piece when re-checking a google search of “hazard reduction” I’d done earlier today, to see if the following ABC/RMIT FactCheck was still near the very top of the January 2020 news results…which it is. who did they consult?
20 Dec: ABC: Are hazard reduction burns effective in managing bushfires? The answer is complicated
RMIT ABC Fact Check
Principal researcher: Christina Arampatzi
(Senior professor at Wollongong University’s Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires ***Ross) Bradstock agreed, pointing to the example of Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfires in 2009 that claimed the lives of 173 people.
His team studied the aftermath of the fires which were associated with an FFDI of well above 100.
They found that even in the areas where fuel had been treated with planned burns less than five years prior, there was no measurable effect on the intensity of the fires…
The University of Tasmania’s Professor ***Bowman said that in catastrophic conditions, such as those prevailing in the current Queensland and NSW bushfires, all “organic matter is going to burn”…
And Professor Bowman agreed that different fuel types affected fire intensity differently, but in catastrophic conditions, “the variability and fuel load becomes irrelevant”…
But research has also found that prescribed burning as a bushfire management tool is not a panacea…
And (Barnaby Joyce) suggested that fire permit requirements (for firebreak provisions and mandatory monitoring throughout a burn), as well as the penalties for non-compliance, were stopping some farmers from conducting these all-important activities.
However, the bushfire experts Fact Check spoke to dismissed Mr Joyce’s claims, saying they failed to address key issues.
They countered that reasonable safeguards ensuring landholders and neighbours were kept safe during prescribed burns were an important component of current fire management practices.
“There is a deliberate misinterpretation of the ecological thresholds and there is still the inherent assumption that a fuel reduction burn will reduce wildfires,” said Melbourne University’s (associate) Professor (Trent) Penman.
Professor Bradstock said: “Prescribed burning is constrained by budgets, resources and weather conditions. Pretty simple really: essentially, what we pay for is what we get.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-20/hazard-reduction-burns-bushfires/11817336
Bradstock mis-speaks, gets shot down by Bowman:
13 Nov: ABC: Fire, climate change and prescribed burning: What do the experts have to say?
ABC Weather By Kate Doyle
Could prescribed burning have prevented these fires?
(Ross Bradstock, a bushfire risk management expert at the University of Wollongong) acknowledged that not a lot of prescribed burning took place this year.
“Generally speaking, there hasn’t been a lot of hazard-reduction work in places like NSW this spring because the fire season was declared early.”
David Bowman, a professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania, said it was important that media commentary didn’t unnecessarily sow seeds of doubt in the community regarding the quality and concern of fire management agencies.
“It’s really quite disingenuous to suggest that biodiversity concerns, or the concerns of environment, have substantially changed fuel-management programs,” he said.
“I freely acknowledge that among ecologists there is concern and debate about the ecological effects of fuel management.
“There is research and discussion and naturalists hold points of view about fuel management, but frankly, those concerns are really very much to the side and haven’t significantly impeded fuel management programs.”
Dr Bowman said fuel management had been impeded by a constellation of practical constraints, including that fire can escape, smoke pollution, ill health, resourcing, coordination, legal liability, cost and safety.
“The debate we are having is really the society sort of catching up with the internal trade-offs that fire managers had been thinking through about how they can manage fuel,” he said.
“You can’t just go into the landscape and start burning it.”…
Ecological warning signs
Dr Bowman, who literally wrote the book on Australian rainforests, said some recent fires were unheard of.
***”I nearly fell off my chair when Binna Burra Lodge got burnt down,” he said…
“The way fires are going to move across country is rapidly changing and fits with the scenario that had been painted by climate modellers.”…
???Dr Bowman said funding needed to be directed towards preventative burning as a priority, as emergency response funding was now.
“We are going to have to see what I hope is a bidding war among all tiers of government to see who can invest into fire management better than the other group.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/fire-and-climate-change-what-do-experts-have-to-say/11696586
10
RMIT FactCheck: But research has also found that prescribed burning as a bushfire management tool is not a panacea.
SMH: ANONYMOUS RFS spokesman says: Therefore, hazard-reduction burning cannot be seen as the panacea…
9 Dec: SMH: Prescribed burning ‘key to controlling fires’
By Tim Barlass
A forestry expert has condemned bushfire prevention strategies in an open letter to the Prime Minister and premiers, saying it is entirely within their power to put an end to the situation by prescribed burning.
Vic Jurskis, a fellow of the Institute of Foresters of Australia, the body representing more than 1200 forestry professionals, says Australians are being told that “fires are uncontrollable in extreme weather and there’s nothing we can possibly do”.
He said the “simple solution” of preventative or prescribed burns to reduce fuel levels of leaves, dead twigs and other vegetation emerged from a House of Representatives inquiry after the 2003 Canberra fires, which destroyed 488 houses.
Mr Jurskis said: “The fires that burnt Canberra in 2003 jumped over miles and miles of bare paddocks. The problem is if you have three-dimensional, continuous fuel and extreme conditions, you can generate ember showers that travel tens of kilometres ahead of the front.
“A fire break is going to do nothing at all. You have to manage the whole landscape.”
Fire captain Brian Williams, 73, vice-president of the Volunteer Fire Fighters Association, supports the prescribed burn argument. He spoke after a 12-hour night shift fighting the Three Mile fire burning north-east of Wiseman’s Ferry.
Mr Williams said: “The hazard-approval process is what is stuffing the whole process.
“It is bogged down by green [environmental] and red tape which makes getting approval for a prescribed burn a very slow and complex process.
“They have introduced a system that makes it virtually impossible to manage the bush in a sustainable way. I am just one of thousands of volunteers out there who are frustrated.”…
David Packham, a former bushfire researcher at CSIRO, said fuel levels were at their highest since European settlement…(NOT A WORD FROM PACKHAM)
A spokesman (WHO?) for the RFS said it continued to take advantage of all opportunities to undertake hazard reduction activities but the biggest impediment for burning remained the weather.
“Longer fire seasons in south-east Australia have reduced the opportunities for fuel reduction burning,” the spokesman said.
“It’s important to note that a number of fires this season have burnt through areas that were hazard-reduced as little as two and three years ago. ***Therefore, hazard-reduction burning cannot be seen as the panacea…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/prescribed-burning-key-to-controlling-fires-20191129-p53f9o.html
10
Readfern. A true believer if ever there was one. Scientifically illiterate. But I guess I’ll read this data dump eventually. Let me guess? Making excuses for not enough fuel reduction?
20
Pat i notice that every source you cite is a bloody ACADEMIC.
They do not live in the bush.
They are just city people who visit the bush.
Why not take some notice of bush people for a while ?
And here is an example : Matt Ross, a dairy farmer in Far East Gippsland near Orbost. This is his post on Facebook about hazard reduction burns and how one stopped the fires in east Gippsland on Friday. :
https://www.facebook.com/matt.ross.58118?__tn__=%2CdCH-R-R&eid=ARCWOejEHCtaqtQuRg5GWdFon27TExaQuNOonSVItITggmgyahO1UaxEJqRX3FIVGlFtY8VY7D5els3a&hc_ref=ARSTLFwT98ro6zGJYOAhj2gB0qzbpb5njIhdoAorvL4YtHcBjjNobK7rCqPkBfAoICQ&fref=nf
And I have a message for those of us not on Facebook.
Get on it ! Quickly
The younger generation are learning loads of bloody crap on facebook for want of us being there to tell them anything different !
00
The left has this two-way jive going where they claim its a myth that they got in the way of fuel reduction. At the same time as playing down the importance of fuel reduction. Verily these are the dumb leftist fires of 2019.
50
RMIT/ABC FactCheck also quoted a fave of theirs, Trent Penman:
10 Nov: ABC: Fires in NSW partly caused by delayed monsoons in India, experts say
By Kevin Nguyen
NSW’s fire boss said the state had never seen anything like it before…
Trent Penman is an associate professor at the University of Melbourne who studies the behaviour and formation of bushfires using real depictions of fuel, weather and topography.
He said the bushfires could be partly explained by monsoon season ending late in India.
“The global systems are all linked … we can’t dissociate them,” Dr Penham said…
The Conversation discloses what ABC never does:
25 Nov 2015: The Conversation: Saving homes, saving wildlife: Victoria ditches burnoff targets
by Trent Penman, Lecturer, Bushfire Behaviour and Management, University of Melbourne
Disclosure statement:
***Trent Penman receives funding from the Department of Environment Land Water and Planning, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and NSW Office of Environment. He is an invited member of the Victorian Department of Environment Land Water and Planning Risk Tools Working Group.
Previously, Victoria had adopted a plan to burn 5% of the state’s area each year to manage bushfire risk. The 5% target has been criticised by scientists for damaging the environment without necessarily reducing risk. But, following a review, the state is shifting to a new “risk-based” strategy…
https://theconversation.com/saving-homes-saving-wildlife-victoria-ditches-burnoff-targets-51114
9 Oct 2015: The Conversation: There is no single solution to the tragedy of escaped fires
by Trent Penman, Lecturer, Bushfire Behaviour and Management, University of Melbourne
Prescribed burning is a highly contentious topic, particularly this week after an escaped burn near Lancefield in Victoria…
This is not the first time this has happened…
The incidents have prompted questions over whether prescribed burning is worth the risk, and whether property losses could be prevented through better management…
In my opinion, there is no single solution. The answer will vary across the country and will be dependent on what risk from fire residents are willing to accept…
15 Nov: The Conversation: A surprising answer to a hot question: controlled burns often fail to slow a bushfire
by Trent Penman, Associate professor, University of Melbourne; Kate Parkins, Bushfire Risk Analyst, University of Melbourne; Sarah McColl-Gausden, PhD student, University of Melbourne
Disclosure Statements:
Trent Penman receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and several state fire agencies.
Kate Parkins receives funding from The Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), The New South Wales Department for Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE).
Sarah McColl-Gausden receives funding from the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning.
In fact, during extreme fire danger conditions, reduced fuel loads – such as those achieved through hazard reduction burning – do little to moderate bushfire behaviour…
Controlled burns may not slow bushfires
Even if we were to carry out more controlled burns, it does not necessarily follow that bushfire risk would be reduced…
Our research has shown controlled burning was likely to have reduced the area later burnt by bushfires in only four of 30 regions examined in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the ACT…
In future, we must think beyond traditional approaches to fire management. Acknowledging the role of climate change in altering natural hazards and the impact they have on humans and the environment is the first step…
https://theconversation.com/a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire-127022
19 Mar 2018: ABC PM: Fire agencies’ use of social media and messaging likely saved lives
By Linda Mottram
Bushfire experts are uniformly cautioning that fires well into the autumn, like those in south-western Victoria and the south coast of New South Wales during the weekend, are increasingly a part of the southern Australian experience.
PM speaks to Dr Trent Penman, a research leader with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre and a lecturer in Bushfire behaviour and management at the University of Melbourne.
TRANSCRIPT:
LINDA MOTTRAM: And what part is climate change playing in that?
TRENT PENMAN: It’s difficult to say the exact role, but certainly we have had longer, dryer summers and certainly this has also been reflected in the United States – and we saw some big fires there in October, far later than they might have expected.
And so climate change can be affecting how dry the fuels are. It can also be affecting the rainfall, the temperatures and really, when all of these things come together.
So we’ve certainly had times when we’ve had dry weather into March in both NSW and Victoria. We’ve had times with high winds. But it’s really all these things coming together in the wrong way that has resulted in these rapid-moving fires, where we’ve seen the loss of houses…
—
theirABC sure knows how to pick their “experts”.
20
Anothe bloody academic pat..
And you are giving him more airplay !
00
13 Nov 2019: Prof Bowman to ABC: “I nearly fell off my chair when Binna Burra Lodge got burnt down”
***13 Nov 2019: ABC: Cigarette butt to blame for devastating Binna Burra bushfire
ABC Gold Coast By Gemma Sapwell
Officers said two local teenagers — aged 17 and 19 — had been questioned about the incident and detectives had determined the fire was an accident.
“A prosecution will not be commenced against those persons … they are afforded privacy just like anyone else in their position,” a QPS spokesperson said.
Last week, police stated they would not reveal what sparked the blaze as they feared those responsible could be vilified in the small, tight-knit community.
But after a backlash from locals, authorities have now released more details.
Do not be an accidental arsonist
Binna Burra Lodge chairman Steve Noakes welcomed the police decision to be more transparent with the community.
“It’s nice to know the actual cause of it,” he said.
“Maybe it helps to get the message out about how super careful we all have to be at this time, right across Australia with this terrible bush fire season we’re having.”
Mr Noakes said it was a particular reminder to smokers to be vigilant with cigarette butts.
“Such a small simple mistake can have such severe impacts on people and their lives,” he said.
“People really have to take so much care not to act recklessly with anything that can cause a little tiny fire that can grow into a large devastating bushfire.”
Mr Noakes believed most of the community will accept the decision not to reveal the identities of the teenagers involved.
“We respect the decision of police, we know they’re acting in the best interest of the community.”
Queensland introduced laws for dangerous littering in 2011, for litter that is likely to cause harm to a person, property or the environment.
It includes throwing a lit cigarette butt onto dry grass in high fire danger conditions, and individuals can be fined $533.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/binna-burra-fire-an-accident-teenagers-discarded-cigarettes/11699474
20
The Guardian. Making excuses for insufficient fuel reduction. Look we get it already.
20
https://www.theland.com.au/story/6520462/hazard-reduction-debate-simply-frustrating/this/?fbclid=IwAR3oG7xtC_GI3XBCKQgNVst0qMVvtn_Kit3lYaddOUHKa2pjyNqjU3tYHuM
The land
09
Yeah thats a fine piece. Brian Gilligan is in the business of hazard reduction and here he describes the individual pressure placed on him and the difficulties that can arise in some situations. But he’s not saying that fuel reduction is unimportant or trying to push the blame onto something Orwellian nutcases are calling “climate change.” Its a fine piece. He’s doing the good work. The left is trying to say that the leftist politicians aren’t to blame and its all up to the people on the ground. Which is a bizzare interpretation of how policy works in a democracy. So the left is trying to dodge their responsibility and put the conservatives at odds with the people doing the good work on the ground. The left is so crafty and very stupid at the same time. Well they must have some sort of smarts because they always win and hence this disaster.
01
So it wasn’t lack of funding and the obvious green tape it was climate change wot dunnit!
Fitz I should have known better to read a link from you , this is garbage pure and simple .
There are so many flaws in this “opinion piece” from a so called green leaning expert as to be ridiculous .
It’s full of contradictions , burning off when too wet ! , stopping a burn because of too much smoke , well how much smoke is there now .
A burn off goes bad from what sounds like incompetence and it just goes on and on but of course the kicker was at the end and climate change .
Couldn’t burn off because of climate change – really ?
50
“Couldn’t burn off because of climate change – really ?”
Obviously Mother Nature had a Nelsonian approach to that bulletin!
20
Climate change at the tail, got it.
Firefighters are not climate scientists and simply regurgitating the Guardian world view.
20
Gillian is a climate dingbat who has lost perspective due to a single event that resulted in Workcover prosecution of his organisation:
He would have difficulty defending his position on red tape in a discussion with many property owners like Liam Sheahan who have been heavily fined for removing trees from their property. My neighbour cannot even touch a tree on his property without government approval; because it is heritage listed.
Forest productivity has increased significantly over the last 50 years while commercial logging operations have diminished significantly. There is limited commercial incentive to manage the fire risk in state forests. Let them burn. Controlling a fire in a state forest is simply delaying the inevitable. Prepare comprehensive fire control lines around populated locations and maintain them. Let individuals manage the fuel load on their property and convict government officers who allow build up of fuel on local and state lands that present a risk to lives.
It appears the warning system that came out of the 2009 fires in Victoria has been reasonably effective so far in reducing loss of life.
Anyone who thinks that more windmills and solar panels in Australia will have a material impact on forest fires over the next 1000 years is seriously in need of a clue. I exclude the possibility of all the national parks being razed and the land covered with wind generators and solar panels as being unrealistic on may fronts.
30
If you look at the Vic emergency app and select the Whitfield fire and go about 2 kilometres northwest you can see private property .
A friend of mine owns one of the closest properties to this fire and expects to lose everything because of how overgrown the adjoining state forest is .
Burn offs are non existent here because of the high voltage lines and way over the hill the pine forests.
They have had fires in the past but never had fuel loads like what is there at the moment .
30
Two weeks off over the xmas break – too damn hot to do much outside so spent a LOT of time watching Netflix Amazon et.al. No main stream TV for me. I caught a couple of interesting YouTube videos, Tedx talk, this one from Michael Shellenberger an environmental writer about why renewables are not the right way to go – but nuclear is the way to go. (Apologies if this has been posted before.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w
The other one – well he’s an Aussie comedian (Isaac Butterfield) who has a weekly YouTube vlog.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtGvpe4b5PQ
Both food for thought.
00
I like Greta. We tease her of course. Just remember these leftist crazies are going to rip her to pieces sooner or later. We know what these nutballs are like. We should be ready for this, and lend her a kind word or two, when the inevitable dumb left backlash comes in like a big brown wave. She’s doing her best, given her “issues” and the lies she has been told. Pretty fair and balanced commentary from Isaac.
21
An interesting chat about the Sackler family…
https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/tkelly6785757/episodes/2019-12-21T20_07_18-08_00
30
Bette Midler and Burnie Sander give opinions on Australia, bush fire and climate change.
Read Bette and Burnie
20
Very good man Bernie. He was the one who prised out the extent of the looting racket known as “the bailout” conducted by Bernanke and the others. If not Bernie a lot of us would have assumed it was just a 750 billion loan subsidy. Whereas it turned out to be the most comprehensive stealing spree since the crusaders looted Constantinople. Or perhaps since the Reformation. Bernie was gyped by the Democratic elite from his rightful frontrunner status. A set of Trump-Sanders debates would have been very good for the banana republic.
But Bernies too old now. And like Trump he’s gotten to where he can be mislead by the younger people surrounding him. If this keeps going its going to wind up a bit like “Weekend At Bernies.” Better not dig too deeply down deep-state Midler. The extent to which the Central Entertainment Agency has meddled with the culture is quite incredible. Post-war the military industrial complex went into social engineering in a huge fashion.
13
I do like his anti centralized/Fed banking stance, but on the other hand he is an advocate of one government globalization, at of which, would be a super centralized bank. He is prodding at the “elitist’s” with one hand and carrying out their wishes with the other.
There is something fishy in Hollywood, again in similar fashion, social idealists, puppets, who’s strings are are pulled by those with a hidden agenda.
I guess I’d better go put on my aluminum foil hat now 🙂
20
jack:
I think that should be Bernie. I know 200 are supposedly being investigated for arson, but there have been no convictions yet. So no need to give the Greenies ideas.
10
Thanks Graeme III
Freudian slip.
10
2 Jan: Forbes: How Billionaires Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg Corrupted Climate Science
by Roger Pielke
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2020/01/02/how-billionaires-tom-steyer-and-michael-bloomberg-corrupted-climate-science/#59c38674702c
10
I don’t see how Pielke can be worth heeding given that he states at the outset of this article:
“Before proceeding, let’s make a few things absolutely clear. There is no doubt that climate change is real, and is significantly influenced by our activities, particularly through the emissions of carbon dioxide. I have long advocated for aggressive action on carbon dioxide emissions as well as to improve adaptation to climate variability and change. At the same time, I have also long argued that maintaining scientific integrity should go hand-in-hand with effective climate action.”
Anyway, thanks for unearthing this piece of specious hypocrisy Pat. …”effective climate action” -eugh!
10
Circulation at The Land has been going backwards for decades.
Without State and Federal advertising, it would collapse.
That is an advertortorial for NPWS.
00
Merry New Year !
Can anyone point me to a updated comparison between radiosonde and satellite data?
… with years after 2016.
00
Thanks, everyone — for sending us your smoke 😀
I noticed the light (I’m in Auckland) was going down and wondered the day had gone. It wasn’t meal time yet, surely? My watch said 3:30 pm. Oh, must be new battery time. The light outside had a sun-set look but all my clocks agreed with my watch. It really was 3:30pm, but it looked like nearly 8:00 pm.
Not bad. 2000 km to the east … At least the smell hadn’t followed it, that subtle odour of pyrolised eucalyptus.
We had a `red sun’ sun-rise on the Friday 03 Jan. It was quite a spectacle.
Sun-set is still an hour away as I write this, and it’s still a lot darker than it should be. The light outside is yellowish orange …
Our govt is sending some of the NZ Armed Forces over to help. Please don’t lose them (as in mislay them) — we don’t have very many and about all they’ll know when they get there is which way is up! 😀
40
Tropical Disturbance designated 91S has a high probability of becoming a cyclone by Monday. It is predicted to cross the coast between Broome and Port Hedland about Tues/Wed.
First for the season. Doesn’t look strong enough to make it to central Oz, but there is the possibility of a 2nd cyclone forming in the same area a few days later. Things are starting to happen.
30
Maybe some solar wind could set things off….or an Earth facing coronal hole.
01
A weekend of mind expansion….Question…if we had fire breaks like this?……………….the plant species profile of our flora has changed favouring the fast growing grasses and other weed species like Lantana used in floral arrangements/etc that escaped Australian gardens into what remains of the bush and so forth.
In short, the inflammability profile of our continent has changed over the years in general. The ‘fire risk’ operational vocabulary needs a slightly larger/less myopic dictionary of ‘facts’.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/california-dreaming-the-redwoods-of-the-otway-ranges-20150807-giu01g.html
00
The Australian Inflammability Climate (IC) has changed. The pic of the nonburnable (when healthy) Redwoods in our backyard.
Maybe a wild leaf litter fire at best. A pair of socks would do for protection.
00
Just dreaming lol
00
In saying that….was listening to the radio today and a retired fire chief raconteured how he experimented successfully on the use of leaf litter blowers to fight fires. The wind from the blower effectively micro-back-burns any fire in front of it.
00
Sounds like an excellent fire defense for grass fires
10
Another idea might be to use an existing grid of landowners similar to our photovoltaic owner system, so that it only turns on and feeds water back into the water hydro-grid in the event of fire.
In this invention, water is deployed via pumps to water grid containment lines instead of inefficient fire truck water transport.
IN this embodiment,… …. so that………….
02
A single capillary (other than rivers, or capillaries in fungi/etc.) (water fluid transport)can move the world.
slowly
02
Ok…or quickly lol..of course.
02
Comment from a son in the nw of NT
They fit nicely in a heliopter
They’re not much use if you’re in a good down-wind as the embers get stirred up and spread
00
Perhaps the ABC should work on getting pronounciations correct before attempting to get facts correct.
The helicoptor with twin rotor engines is spelt Chinook pronounced shin-ook not chin-ook.
Also its Grenock not Grenick etc etc et
40
You should have heard them trying to pronounce Moruya.
Also a cub ABC reporter standing next to a burnt out car with the wheels melted off it proceeded to tell us that the paint had melted off the car and congealed on the road. There were solidified puddles of mag-wheel aluminium on the road beneath each hub, but no, it was paint. He said it twice. I don’t know what he thought happened to the wheels. Vaporised? Taken by aliens? So at least 660 deg C there then. No one in the car luckily.
30
Judging by the greenest of green media coverage of the fires you would swear there was a Walkley award on offer , either that or an oscar for best drama .
20
How about this as an alternative solution.
All State/National Parks/Forests should have a small steam turbine electric generator built.
It will be burning wood chips as cleared in sections about 50 meters wide, tree stumps and all right across the park/forest, converting all that growth into free electricity.
There would need to be specialized all terrain equipment to do the clearing and chipping as well as hauling it to the generating plant. There would be follow up crews re-planting native species. There would be selected large trees left standing with nesting boxes at regular intervals.
There would be people collecting seeds preceding the clear felling.The smoke from the boiler would be used to provide smoky water as used by nurserymen to propogate new growth from those collected seeds.
The work-force would be nature lovers and paid by the state/government with a generous pension after 40 years service. There would be no need for new start or dole. There would be free transport to the work site and free clothing and food as well as shower facilities.
A small army of good people with sustainability as their first responsibility whose payment in effect comes from keeping the rest of Australians safe from bush fires and generating all that free electricity.
There would be manufacturers building the specialized equipment that would be all terrain and sought after by other nations with forests needing responsible maintenance. There would be steel works making the chipping machines, there woulkd be boilermakers and turbine builders, all producing ‘Made in Austrailia’ badges.
There would be prizes for the best looking forrest/park. There would be prizes for the most Koalas, possums, parrots.
The Farmers would also be happy to graze there beef cattle on the new growth grasses and weeds before the trees got re-established.
The clear felled lanes would be natural fire breaks and fire trails as well as wonderful nature walks thus opening up opportunities to the tourist industry.
What could be a simpler and more effective way of using all that vegetation as fuel to generate electricity.
/Old Responsible Recycler who is anything but GREEN.
50
Absolutely on the right track. We need catalytic communist programs to try and get a greater demand for wood burning. Many suggestions ought to be welcome. My suggestion is for the rocket mass heater. We have a problem that the right is libertarian and the left hates solutions to real problems that actually work. The rights attitude is the functional one. But we do need ice-breaker, low-budget communist undertakings. Just to get things started.
Doesn’t need to cost a lot of money. Just needs to break the ice. Clear the air. Start the trend.
This bonanza of excessive performance in the natural world, thanks to blessed hydro-carbons, is not going away. We have to get ahead of this blessing. We ought not look a gift-horse in the mouth.
01
Sounds good. That’s the perfect future.
00
There’s one more rough fire day left next week. Friday the 10th has higher temps, lower humidity, stronger persistent winds and a cool southerly change which arrives a fair bit later.
After that the pacific equatorial rain-band starts dipping towards the Coral Sea with tropical waves so the monsoon trough, cloud cover and increased humidity won’t be far behind.
50
Hope so.
30
4 Jan: WUWT: NYT: President Trump to Drop Climate Change from Federal Infrastructure Planning
by Eric Worrall
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/04/nyt-president-trump-to-drop-climate-change-from-federal-infrastructure-planning/
20
An initiative well worth our own three levels of government adopting but the legislative momentum remains ideologically locked in the opposite direction and none of us is likely to live to see any change.
10
Great post by Willis on WUWT showing clearly that “climate change” has nothing to do with these fires
Puts the blame for the severity, totally where it belongs
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/04/australia-fires-and-misses/
20
h/t Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/05/bush-bull/
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gpcRGwMC5CE/XhLDmraL_KI/AAAAAAAAB80/II_wA3Mlx9IL4CIIHZp5WWlnSD0UleYSwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/clip_image035.jpg
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hEA1fEJWzh0/XhLBg5WvKUI/AAAAAAAAB8o/dVYKLFs31V410rVkD4o4Vc-xViGpRbpfACEwYBhgL/s1600/clip_image037.jpg
00
Posting this comment here and at Paul Homewood
Further, where nature conspires to produce fuel, society needs an 11th commandant, namely “Thou shall restrict actions that cause fires.”
In the USA, 84% of wildfires in the United States that required help by firefighters between 1992 and 2012 were a result of something humans have done. See this well documented report with maps, graphs, and tables:
https://www.pnas.org/content/114/11/2946
Title of the Research Article
Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States, by Jennifer K. Balch and others
One subheading:
“Human-Related Ignitions More Than Tripled the Length of the Wildfire Season”
PNAS = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
20
Focusing on What Causes the fires is useful in that it distracts from the most important thing: damage to property, animals and humans.
Many isolated wildfires may not need human intervention but the preparation to survive those that do threaten is ongoing and cannot be ignored.
“Studies” that distract from the main issue should not be pushed.
The main issue is that we need to Prepare our environment and if we don’t the we are in for trouble, exactly like we have now.
KK
00
KK misses the point.
And so here I’ll add:
See the subheading: ““Human-Related Ignitions More Than Tripled the Length of the Wildfire Season”
10